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Insider: Modern Masters Misses and Opportunities

Posted on June 13, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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I don’t know about you, but I’ve done exactly one Modern Masters draft so far and really enjoyed it. I don’t seem to be the only one. The set has been a hit as we expected and there’s a ton of anecdotal evidence of people going nuts for the chance to draft it.

More importantly, I’ve also seen a lot of people trying to fill play sets after opening one or two cards from the set. That solidifies my belief that we won't see huge drops for the big rares and (especially) mythics.

But as is the case with any set, there are some things that didn’t make the cut, and that means investment opportunities. There’s also plenty of stuff in the set that provides opportunities for profit, and today I want to explore some of those. I simply don’t have enough room to cover everything that isn’t in the set but could see movement, so instead I want to focus on a few I feel are particularly good targets.

Preliminary Price Movement

As expected, uncommons like Kitchen Finks and Spell Snare are coming down in price and will likely continue to do so for a few more weeks until the supply of Modern Masters slows down.

I think the play here is to keep a close eye on the index of these to try and spot the bottom, which I don’t think will be too difficult to do. Because we’re a long way from Modern season, it’s not like there will be a bottom and then a hard spike. Instead, there will be a bottom followed by a gradual increase until Modern season, at which point I think we see a correction upward.

That means a lot of money can be made on these cards if people start trading them too low. $5 Finks today can easily be $8-10 again next season if the player base grows the way it seems to be headed. Of course, while Finks is one example, I think Spell Snare would be a better target because Finks is neutered somewhat by the introduction of Scavenging Ooze into the format.

Even rares have seen downward movement. Cryptic Command dropped $5 or so since it was spoiled. Again, I think these are temporary moves, and the tipping point is probably right after GP Vegas next week (which I’ll be at!). I think the market will be most flooded after that event and we’ll see a bottom before the inevitable rise.

Moving onto the mythics, we’re not seeing much movement at all, again as I expected. Dark Confidant is moving some, but its price has been quite volatile for a few months already. Elspeth, Knight-Errant, Tarmogoyf and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker are barely moving at all, and I expect that to remain mostly true moving forward.

Big Misses

Now, let’s move onto some individual cards.

Remand

This is a big one. Up to this point it has played second fiddle to Spell Snare in terms of pricing, but that’s going to flip now, and this will keep going up, barring an unforeseen reprint. At $10 right now, it could easily push toward $15 next season.

Aven Mindcensor

Another big miss from the set. This thing has moved upwards of $7, and there’s no reason to think it won’t be $10 in six months.

Scapeshift

With additional Cryptics entering the market, the barrier to entry for this particular combo deck comes down quite a bit. With Storm and Eggs nearly banned out of the format, there could also be more combo players flocking toward the Mountains.

I like Scapeshift and Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle both to tick up some in this case. Primeval Titan could as well, though that’s certainly more speculative since it’s not quite as proven (the weird turn two Titan deck not withstanding).

Thoughtseize

I want to talk about this one because I don’t see it as an opportunity. I think it’s super odd of Wizards to leave out such an expensive card when it’s not particularly hard to slot in as a reprint for Modern Masters. That, and some language from WoTC regarding Modern cards already being slotted for sets, makes me believe that we’re seeing Cashseize reprinted elsewhere. I’m staying away from this one.

Chord of Calling

Here we have a solid staple card that, due to its keyword, won’t be in another set for a while. It’s a pretty easy play to pick these up in anticipation of it having nowhere to go but up.

Mutavault

Another card I’m surprised wasn’t in the set. There has been some speculation about this being in M14 to help support slivers, or even in Theros.

I’m not sure about all that, but there’s no reason to take undue risk. Wait at least a few weeks to find out about M14, and longer if you want to see about Theros. I don’t think there’s any big upward or downward pressure on its price in the meantime. The movement that will come will be closer to Modern season, so a wait-and-see approach on this one may be right.

That said, if we don’t see a reprint it’s going nowhere but up.

Noble Hierarch

Deathrite Shaman has pooped on Hierarch a little bit in the last eight months, but it’s been very stable at just under $30. I think Birds of Paradise and Deathrites keep this from climbing at the rate it has the past two years, but I also don’t think the price is coming down either. That makes this more of a hold than a buy to me.

A New Take on Midrange

Posted on June 13, 2013June 13, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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As you know, I have been playing a variety of decks in Standard. This is the normal process I go through until I find a deck I really believe in and am willing to continue work on. The deck I have played the most is The Aristocrats. Most of the red, black, and white cards are exactly what I want to be doing in Standard right now. This past week, after looking at the cards I felt were underplayed in Standard, I set out to craft a deck utilizing them. As it so happens, many of the cards on the list fall into those Aristocrat colors.

My process for this deck was twofold. First of all, I wanted to create a controlling deck based on a specific set of removal spells and finishers. Second, I based the initial deck list on how Aristocrats looked post-board in many matches. Combining these ideas in the deck building process led me to create a deck that was well set up to crush the aggressive strategies popular in Standard right now. In return I was left in a worse position against the midrange decks of the format. Take a look at the deck.

BWR Midrange

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Boros Reckoner

3 Sin Collector

3 Olivia Voldaren

3 Obzedat, Ghost Council

Spells

4 Pillar of Flame

4 Mizzium Mortars

2 Dreadbore

2 Bonfire of the Damned

3 Lingering Souls

3 Liliana of the Veil

3 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

1 Assemble the Legion

1 Sever the Bloodline

Lands

4 Blood Crypt

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Godless Shrine

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Clifftop Retreat

4 Isolated Chapel

1 Vault of the Archangel

Sideboard

4 Devour Flesh

2 Rest in Peace

2 Apetite for Brains

1 Assemble the Legion

1 Rakdos's Return

1 Sire of Insanity

1 Slaughter Games

2 Intangible Virtue

1 Lingering Souls

Most players' reaction to this deck is that the mana curve seems high. My counterargument is that I play more cheap removal spells than Jund. There is definitely a lot of interacting in the early game, but no acceleration to get to the midgame faster. Because there is so much removal, this is not a problem. In fact, I typically had more removal than my opponents could handle.

Versus Aggro

Naya is the new tier-one deck in the format in most player’s eyes. BWR Control makes quick work of that deck. Your removal is well suited to take out their creatures and they typically do not have as many threats as you have creatures. Once you stabilize, you can start playing your tokens and attacking.

Another common way to win is just by playing Obzedat. They have no way to handle this potent threat. Until the board is clear, you should be almost always be blinking him out at the end of each turn. Sometimes, you need to keep him in play as a blocker, but when you do, you risk a pump spell or burn spell in combat.

The weakest cards in this matchup are Sin Collector, which almost always is just a Gray Ogre, and the one Assemble the Legion. I cast Assemble one time against Naya and promptly died the following turn. Most of the time, you cannot afford the turn it takes to sit in play doing nothing. In other matchups it is quite good, but against aggro it gets sideboarded out.

The plan post-board is -3 Sin Collector and -1 Assemble the Legion for +4 Devour Flesh. This plan has been very successful and I highly recommend it.

Versus Midrange

Unfortunately the midrange matches didn’t turn out as favorable as I would have liked. There are more ways to get rid of Obzedat than previously and many of your maindeck removal spells depend on your opponents' draw. Jund is basically a mirror match where they are set up slightly better for game one. They normally have a hard time with your token strategy post-board, but game one is rather close. My testing against Jund is inconclusive because it seemed like I could never get a decent draw against them. One positive note, typically this match is not nearly as long as the typical Midrange vs. Midrange battle.

One idea I had to improve the match was to play Blood Baron of Vizkopa instead of Obzedat. Despite Obzedat being the much better card in my opinion, it would function similarly in the aggro match while being much harder to kill for Jund. I have not tested the change but it seems likely it would be better to play Baron.

The Junk match is similarly close like Jund, but they have many less ways to kill your threats. You can slow them down with your removal enough to defeat them the majority of the time.

Overall, I really liked this deck. It seemed very good in the format right now. If you are looking for a better way to fight against Naya or Aristocrats, give this deck a try.

Other Versions

As I was working on this concept of BWR Control, it seems that some other players were also. Take a look at what some other players are sleeving up in Standard.

BWR Midrange
By Frank Lepore

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

4 Boros Reckoner

2 Nearheath Pilgrim

2 Obzedat, Ghost Council

2 Olivia Voldaren

3 Restoration Angel

2 Sin Collector

2 Sire of Insanity

Spells

3 Liliana of the Veil

2 Dreadbore

2 Mizzium Mortars

3 Pillar of Flame

2 Searing Spear

2 Underworld Connections

2 Warleader's Helix

Lands

4 Blood Crypt

2 Cavern of Souls

4 Clifftop Retreat

4 Dragonskull Summit

4 Godless Shrine

1 Plains

4 Sacred Foundry

1 Stensia Bloodhall

1 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Assemble the Legion

2 Crypt Incursion

1 Pillar of Flame

2 Pithing Needle

2 Rakdos's Return

1 Sever the Bloodline

2 Sin Collector

2 Tribute to Hunger

As you can see, these two decks have many cards in common. The removal packages seem developed with the same threats in mind and the finishers have just as much overlap as well. Both decks are trying to do basically the same thing.

One part of this deck I don’t like is Nearheath Pilgrim and Restoration Angel. In my opinion, Restoration Angel is a poor choice for this deck. You are rarely utilizing the blink ability and just playing it as a minor threat with flash. To me that's not enough. The Nearheath Pilgrim also seems out of place. The ability to gain some life back when paired with any of your creatures is great, but it doesn’t seem like it would work out well in the end.

Never having tried this version, I wouldn’t recommend changing it immediately but after testing, I don’t think it would end up in the deck. One card that some versions similar to this play is Rhox Faithmender. I can see the benefit to that card but I’m not certain it is necessary either.

No matter which specific cards you want to play, BWR Midrange is well set up to take on the format. This deck requires testing, patience, and a good eye for threat evaluation. If you enjoy midrange deck and have some of those skills, I would highly recommend playing this deck.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Midrange Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

UWR Updates

Posted on June 12, 2013June 12, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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The more I try to make things work with Standard the more I wish I were playing Legacy or Pauper. The more I think about it, the more I realize that I never actually had "the fire" when it comes to Standard. I've been missing a crucial element, and that is I don't get especially disappointed when I fail.

See, the fire isn't just about wanting to win. Everybody wants to win. The difference between being competitive and being passionate is what you feel when you lose. When I 6-2 a large Legacy tournament I spend a great deal of time contemplating whether or not my list needs updating. When I don't cash a Pauper Daily I run through my replays and try to pinpoint how I could have played better.

When I lose a match of Standard I feel mostly apathy. I tell myself that there was nothing I could do, that anybody could've figured out to cast Thragtusk or Thundermaw Hellkite on five and that there was no way I could have won after drawing as many lands as I did.

Yet I continue to play. That, I believe, is insane. So my options are to quit or to adapt. I've quit Magic three times, and my efforts were laughable. Perhaps it's an inability to give up on all the time and effort I've put into the game previously, or perhaps it's the fact that not playing Standard severely limits the opportunities I would have to go on road trips for Magic or just the time I spend with all the people I've met through Magic in general.

So right now I want to be incinerating money on drafting Modern Masters (if you haven't tried it, it's really sweet) but instead I'm going to jam a bunch of Standard. Matter of fact, I'm playing a Standard Daily right now. I'm going to continue battling until I either start caring a lot or stop caring at all. So far my drive to be competitive is causing me to care more. I don't know if this is good or bad, but this is what I've convinced myself that I want, so we'll see.

Anyway, from grinding away at Standard I've learned a few things about what the UWR deck needs to do in the format. Here are the most important things I've learned thus far:

You Can't Cut Pillar

So I've gone down to 2-3 Pillar for a couple matches but the card has proven to be much more impactful on the deck's effectiveness in the matches where it's good than in the matches where it's bad. Voice of Resurgence is literally everywhere and just being able to throw burn spells at Planeswalkers has proven very relevant against multiple archetypes.

The long and short of it is that you will win far more matches due to drawing the Pillar of Flame that you need against the things it matches up well against than you will lose for it being lackluster. A big part of this is that...

Ætherling Is All That Matters

When it comes to midrange and control decks, Ætherling has proven to be far and away the most powerful card in Standard. It wrecks planeswalkers, it blocks everything, and it closes games very quickly. Did I mention that it's basically unkillable?

The absolute dominance of Ætherling in slower matches has firmly placed me in the Cavern of Souls camp. Casting Ætherling into coutnerspells always feels miserable and just resolving one will often win the game. It is, however, important to note that if you tap low and your opponent just Ætherlings back they can beat you, so just hitting your land drops and being able to leave up a counterspell when you play yours matters a lot. This leads me towards both having a 28th land (the third Cavern) on board as well as having a Counterflux in the main to be able to tap out for Ætherling and beat Ætherling + Dissipate.

It is, however, dramatically weaker against the aggressive decks, and for this reason I've been playing one maindeck and one sideboard. I could easily see maining the second copy, but I refuse to play fewer than 27 lands and having two in addition to four Sphinx's Revelations leads to more mulligans.

Azorius Charm Was Disappointing

With the four Pillars I really didn't need an excess of other removal spells and Azorius Charm has been historically awful against non-aggressive decks. Switching to Think Twice was fairly easy for me, though somewhat embarrassing considering that last week I cut Think Twice for Augur of Bolas. More embarrassing considering that I've trimmed a couple Augurs from my list, but four was probably just too many.

At any rate, hitting your first, I don't know, eight land drops tends to matter a lot with this type of deck, and all the while you'll need to be casting relevant spells. Think Twice just happens to be the best spell at achieving both of these goals. It also gives you a non-zero increase in odds of beating a resolved Sire of Insanity.

Needless to say without Azorius Charm, Thought Scour really has no place in the deck.

Hexproof Bant and Jund are Going to Be Coin Flips

Probably the most frustrating thing when playing this deck is playing against Invisible Stalker/Geist of Saint Traft or Sire of Insanity/Slaughter Games.

These matches do involve some amount of skill, but they can be straight draw dependent. Sometimes Hexproof just gets you, and sometimes they just die. Sometimes Jund succumbs to the fact that your spells are just better, and sometimes they draw the right spells in proper succession.

While these matchups have been exactly the type of Magic that I despise, the Naya and Esper matchups have been favorable and the mirror has proven to be a pretty fun chess match, which is an important aspect of any deck from my perspective.

All that said, here's my current list:

Another Version of the Truth

spells

1 Counterflux

1 Devil's Play

2 Augur of Bolas

4 Snapcaster Mage

1 Aetherling

4 Pillar of Flame

4 Searing Spear

2 Detention Sphere

2 Warleader's Helix

4 Sphinx's Revelation

2 Dissipate

4 Think Twice

2 Supreme Verdict

lands

4 Hallowed Fountain

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Sacred Foundry

4 Steam Vents

4 Sulfur Falls

4 Clifftop Retreat

2 Cavern of Souls

1 Island

The big change that I haven' addressed yet is the miser's Devil's Play. I had it in my sideboard for a couple days and have decided to give it a whirl maindeck. It's a bit slow against the aggressive decks but it's awesome against Planeswalker-based strategies, is awesome for the burn plan and is an okay way to deal with Sire of Insanity.

The deck still probably needs some tuning, but I'm feeling pretty good about the results I've been having thus far. On occasion I've wished that I had access to some manner of two-mana counter like Negate or Syncopate, but the situations have been too few and far between for me to make such a consideration for the maindeck as of yet.

As always, questions and comments are not only welcome, but encouraged. Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Modern Masters at Last!

Posted on June 12, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sebastien Morin

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MM Finally!

This week, we’ll cover the online impact on mythics reprinted in Modern Masters. We will share our predictions on price movement. Be aware that we will also be very active on the forums to adjust these predictions as time goes on, since detecting a price floor correctly requires a lot of time spent online, watching the Classifieds.

Modern Masters is now fully spoiled. For those who does not know yet about the online release of MM, here is the scoop from the Mothership:

“Modern Masters booster packs will cost $6.99 USD and will only be available in the Magic Online Store for two weeks, starting Friday, June 14, at 10:00 AM PDT and ending with the downtime on Wednesday, June 26. Modern Masters events also begin Friday, June 14, at 10:00 AM, will run until the downtime on July 10.”

That means we only have one month of drafting and no boosters will be available from the store after two weeks. There has been debate whether or not Modern Masters will be drafted a lot and whether or not the price will fall.

Before we continue with our predictions, let’s mention that we think MM will be heavily drafted. The set seems terribly fun to draft, and the Tarmogoyf lottery will likely attract many players to the events. We are also confident there will be plenty of good buying opportunities over the next month, even though the price of many mythics will not go down as much as we would like. Simply said, many players are waiting to grab a set of their favourite cards ever printed.

We would also like to point out that the money you are investing in MM reprints might be locked there for at least 5-6 months. We will take a position on a few staples ourselves, even if the targets require a medium-term hold. As Sigmund recently said, to us it seems like a good time to invest, rather than speculate!

We will detail our predictions card by card, based on our knowledge of the metagame. As a matter of fact, this is the format we know best. Our next two articles will be entirely consecrated to Modern Masters. In this and next week’s articles, we will talk about the cards we are watching for the release, and the last article will cover what we will call collateral damage (which other cards will be affected as well, such as Thoughtseize).

Mythics

Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Elspeth is a really good planeswalker. In fact, many players believe that it's the third best planeswalker ever printed after Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Liliana of the Veil. Unfortunately, she has not found a steady home in Modern yet.

There are two reasons from our point of view. First, control (meaning pure control) is still not well established in Modern and second, combo was very popular before the bannings, and she was bad in those match ups. Now that combo is out (or almost) we might see more people try to incorporate her in their build. Kibler had some success with her one to two months ago and we think that as Modern grows increasingly popular, someone will find a way to play her. Note that Elspeth also sees a little play in Legacy.

As of now, we will be buyers in the 7-8 ticket price range. We must get her at a good discount, since she might not see action early in the next season.

Vendilion Clique

This card is just absurdly good. It’s even better now with the new legend rule. One of the main problems was to draw a second Clique, but now a second one will still disrupt them at least. This means that many lists will contain four Cliques from now on, instead of the 2-3 copies we were used to seeing. The card has already dropped below its average of 22.5 (currently 20.4) and we bought some at 18 already.

It’s hard to tell how much further it will drop, but from our perspective, it’s already a buy. Anything you can find under 18 tix is almost assuredly profitable in the long run. Don’t forget that it’s played in all eternal formats. We believe Clique will be a 25-30 card again.

Dark Confidant

Bob is both a Modern and Legacy staple. With all the reprint frenzy, he's already under the average price (14 tix), and we started to buy some at 10-11 tix already. Bob will be 18-20 tix again. We don’t expect it to dive a lot under 10, so a buy in that range sounds like a good investment. It’s probably one of the safest targets, and we’ll go deep if we have a shot at it.

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

This card is crazy. We’ve seen it go from 5-6 tix to 25 in less than two months!. Now that Storm is out, people will defer to other combo archetypes. Kiki is played both in Splinter Twin decks and Combo-Pod.

Remember that key cards in cheap decks are always a good place to invest, since the whole deck is fairly cheap except for Kiki and maybe Spellskite. People are willing to pay a little extra for key cards when the rest of the deck is cheap to build.

If we can buy around 4-5 tix (which seems to be the floor price in the last months) we can grab a good amount of them with confidence. If we see it stay in the 7-8 range then we will have to reevaluate our position.

Tarmogoyf

There will never be enough Tarmogoyfs to flood the market. Tarmogoyf will be a 50-ticket card again in the near future. It’s played as a four-of in so many Modern and Legacy decks. Many players who could not afford to build a tarmo deck will now want their set.

We can’t wait to see what will be the floor on this one, but our guess is that it won’t go down that much. We’re hoping for 38-40. Other traders on the forums argued that the coming of Scavenging Ooze in M14 might affect Tarmo’s price, but it is highly likely that Tarmogoyf will see plenty of play and that it will remain both a Legacy and Modern staple. Goyf is, from our point of view, better than Ooze anyway.

We’ll buy back our own play sets and a few more if we get the chance. But we think it will be war out there… Just like with the promo Force of Will. Good luck guys!

The Swords & Shackles

We put these three together because they have lots of similarities.

First of all, while all being good cards, none have seen much play lately. Sword of Fire and Ice sees some play in an Esper-Blade list, whereas Sword of Light and Shadow sees a bit of play in Modern. As for the Shackles, the card was used a lot before the printing of Abrupt Decay. Now that Abrupt Decay is everywhere, the card is out of favor. Still, against many decks it’s good game when you can cast it. Shackles will certainly see some play again.

For all three, we are waiting for significant discounts or we will stay out. Since the cards are not played a lot, we’re pretty sure we will be able to buy them at an excellent price.

Shackles is already way below its average (14 tix) with an actual retail price of 8. We will be buyers at around 4 tix.

Sword of Light and Shadow has seen a recent spike of 15 and if we look at the last two years, its floor seems to be around 6. If it reaches the floor again, we should consider buying.

Sword of Fire and Ice has a regular and a promo version. The promo version is the cheaper of the two. Its has a floor of 4.35 and has never been higher than 7.5.

When we are looking to invest in a card, we prefer to look at the cheapest version to see the price we are ready to buy the card for. Here, if we can buy around 3 tix, we feel like it will be a safe bet, even though it doesn’t see much action at the moment.

Summary

All in all, we will be scanning the market for these cards, but we will be patient and we will avoid committing our money if we cannot clearly identify the new floor prices, or if the prices remain stable and see no decline at all.

We want to end this article by pointing out that Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, both Swords and Vedalken Shackles all have new art. We would like to hear from you about it.

First do you prefer the old or new version? Second, do you think that the new version will have a lower price than the old one in the long run? Usually the older version keeps an higher price due to rarity, so if you get the chance, try to buy the older version while they are at the same price. Still, some promos have higher price than the regular version (see Clique, Wasteland, Cryptic Command or even Restoration Angel).

Jeff is generally paying attention to cards’ art when buying his personal play sets, whereas Sébastien generally goes for the cheapest version. So we’re interested in your way of seeing this aspect of the speculation game!

Insider: Trading for Modern Masters

Posted on June 11, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Today we're going to go over the immediate price impact Modern Masters has had on many of the Modern staples. Normally, this isn't something you'd do when a set first releases because people keep opening packs, thus adding to the supply and dropping prices rather rapidly after the first few weeks.

Using WeQu's EV calculations for MM we can see something similar has already happened with Modern Masters, at an accelerated rate. The irony is that many people probably believe the prices will continue their downward trend for the next few weeks (as that's what we are accustomed to). The catch is that most Modern Masters that will be cracked already has been. There won't be a gradual increase of the supply as time passes.

I know my local area is dried up already. And we even got a Modern Masters GPT for Las Vegas (one clever store owner got WoTC support to increase the amount of Modern Masters he'd have by doing it this way).

As many conjectured however, the release of Modern Masters has increased he player base for Modern. (I'm starting to see more people post on my LGS facebook page requesting Modern staples.) You'll want to make sure you get your staples quickly before this increase in demand causes prices to rebound.

However, it is crucial to keep in mind not all prices will rebound the same, and some may not at all. Cards that are limited to one per deck or 1-2 sideboard slots, as well as cards that don't see play in Modern, will most likely show no immediate rebound. Most will probably go back up in value somewhat, but cards like the mythic dragons and/or the swords will not do so in a timely manner.

Trading for (Discounted) Staples

If you are planning on playing Modern competitively (or expect to have enough trade partners in your area who will) I suggest picking up the following Modern Masters cards. They are broken up into specific categories to aid with trade priority.

Top-Tier Staples

The Top-Tier Staples are good in multiple formats and will most likely be the most desired cards from Eternal players in your area. I'm only looking at Kitchen Finks for $5.00 or less and Path to Exile at $3.50 or less.

Modern Archetype Staples

The Modern archetype staples have some bleed over from Top Tier, but are more likely going to be desirably only by players playing that particular archetype (i.e. something running Jund won't need any of the cards on that list). Look for Spell Snare at $3.00 or less and Lightning Helix at $1.75 or less.

EDH Staples

The EDH staples are cards that may or may not see much Modern play, but have a strong demand among the casual/EDH crowd. Here I don't want Woodfall Primus over $3.00 or Eternal Witness over $1.25.

Foils

Trading for foil MM versions of any of the previously mentioned staples is obviously appealing. Another set of cards to target are foil copies of highly desirable commons like:

All of these were valuable commons at some point. Some dropped a bit after reprints (Stinkweed Imp, Kodama's Reach), but for the most part foils of these cards are valued roughly two times their non-foil price. This is standard for most foils, but these cards used to be worth far more than that. Even if they don't match their previous price, it's not inconceivable for them to go up from current prices.

Last but not least,

Sealed Product

I feel that Modern Masters sealed product will be extremely valuable in the future. My reasoning is simple: most stores sold out within the first 24 hours and I saw more people than not cracking it immediately. My estimate is that in three month's time 80-85% of Modern Masters will have been opened.

I've heard numerous opinions on Modern Masters as a limited format. Personally I found it challenging and very similar to Cube, in which there are a lot of high-power cards and your decision tree is more complicated. This is a good thing (to me at least) and makes me think that it will be highly sought after by friend groups looking to set up a side draft (the considerable cost and lack of availability does imply that larger stores won't be able to run these events themselves.)

A friend of mine (and fellow QS writer) has already garnered support to do a draft with his box, even at $40 per person. With seven people (excluding himself), this translates to $280 for the box. This shows a strong enough demand for product that in 4-5 months prices of $350-400 might be commonplace, which means with a bit of patience (and a good box purchase price) one can net a 100%+ profit.

I will say that the ROI on these boxes has dropped dramatically in the past week. Originally it was around $14 per pack and now it's close to $9, but that will probably go back up as people realize just how limited the product is.

It's also important to note that supply was so limited that the boxes may not be mappable (as people were typically unable to get enough product to run the numbers for the algorithm.) This also means that even individual sealed packs will maintain a higher value as fear of getting mapped packs should be virtually non-existent.

Jason’s Archives: An Embarassment of Wealth

Posted on June 11, 2013June 11, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Spectators!

Admit it--there's way more Modern Masters product out there than you thought there would be.

Wave After Wave

I got a lot of conflicting information from trusted sources regarding Modern Masters and it made it really hard to figure out what to do. Luckily for me, I played it safe and it worked out for me.

Most people just like playing this children's card game, and if your LGS is like mine, they used nearly 100% of their product to run drafts. That meant we got to run pod after pod all weekend, open a ton of product, and people sold to me to bankroll their future endeavors. I listed all of it on eBay last night and half of it has sold already. I feel like there is a short window before prices start to tank a bit, so I advocate turning over your MM product very quickly. Everything that doesn't sell on eBay in the next five days is getting shipped to dealers at Origins in Columbus this weekend before today's buylist price becomes tomorrow's retail.

Hit the Hardest

First up on the "greatest hit" list are the cards I feel will take the biggest hit and which will make me the saddest. Foil commons and uncommons, casual and competitive both, are set to tank, and tank hard. There are a few exceptions that I will get to later, but foils are in big trouble.

Cards like Lightning Helix, Spell Snare and similar competitive cards have bloated foil prices. They are from out-of-print sets in which there weren't a ton of foils printed. With such a high percentage of foils in this set, expensive foils are about to get an influx of copies and this is going to hurt the price a great deal. Add the number of newly-printed cards to the number of existing copies and you see the supply is headed up while demand may not increase nearly as quickly.

If you can get close to the old price for competitive foils, do it. However, the clock is ticking. I watched a foil Spell Snare a friend got in a draft go from $35 when he opened it to the $18 I listed it for on eBay last night. This speed of a decrease in price is atypical, but I think it's a harbinger of future depression.

One exception we'll see is common and uncommon cards with new art. The foil Trygon Predator in Modern Masters looks a lot better than the old one to many people, so you can consider it a novel card and not add the number of new Trygons to the number of old Trygons. The reasoning is simple when you consider the psychology of someone who's picking up foil cards. They are foiling a deck to make it look good, and you can't do that by mixing and matching. If they prefer the new art they need X copies where X is the number they play in the deck/cube and however many copies of the old art they had is irrelevant.

One caveat is that Modern Masters is only printed in English, so while eventually the influx of foils is going to depress the price of a card like foil Trygon Predator eventually (it inevitably will, just not overnight like Spell Snare) it won't affect the price of a Japanese foil Trygon Predator at all. Trade and invest accordingly.

Not Spared

EDH was a good thing for those of us in the finance community. Durdly rares that were too slow for Standard or Legacy, and which would just have sat in our binders for the rest of our lives, suddenly not only left our binders, but were sought after and worth non-trivial amounts of money!

Unfortunately for us, Modern Masters contains a lot of EDH cards that used to be worth much more, due to the influx of new copies. I think anything at or under $5 is headed toward the $1 mark. Cards like Meloku the Clouded Mirror and Countryside Crusher that were flirting with actual value and had the trajectory to eventually become $5 cards were strangled in the cradle and we'll never know what might have been. Cards like Stonehewer Giant are on a downward trajectory. If you can get out of this stuff for a reasonable price, I would.

Rationale

I'm basing this off of pricing trends I've seen on eBay. I've said before, I feel like eBay is the closest we have to a free market. Whereas a major retail site can charge whatever they want (a popular retail site listed Modern Masters cards for the exact same price as the older ones) an auction-based economy is going to more accurately reflect actual supply and demand. The pricing trends on eBay indicate two things.

Modern Masters cards, almost categorically, are on a downward trajectory.
There is more product out there than we anticipated.

Early estimates were that Modern Masters would add somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-10% of what's already out there. However, the market has already responded and sent the prices much more than 10% lower on some cards, and the 5-10% estimate is going to be wildly inaccurate for foil cards.

Several LGS owners have confirmed a second distribution wave (although likely not a second print run), and a promise from WoTC that leftover product from GP Las Vegas (like there will be any!) will be redistributed. We're not done seeing product hit a market that's already nearly saturated with cards like Dragonstorm and Life from the Loam. (Stahp. Printing. Loam. Srsly guise).

I was kind of getting the indication that the best way to win with Modern Masters was not to play, and market trends (albeit one market) seem to bear that out.

That said, I am registered to play in the Main Event at GP Las Vegas. The pre-registration for this event is so great that if no one else signs up and plays, it will be the second largest North American Grand Prix ever. That's just pre-reg.

Expect a glut of Modern Masters to hit after 3000+ people all open sealed pools, play side drafts, free Mini Masters events and run roughshod over established prices. Wear chainmail under your clothes, kids. It's going to be a bloodbath.

Someone I Like Wins Something

But first, Standard.

SCG Open St Louis Standard

The Aristocrats won in Standard. I ain't even mad! I have been bullish about this deck ever since it first broke out, but you probably already knew that. This deck went full midrange and jammed two Obzedat, Ghost Council, which is unusual but not unprecedented.

If I had to guess about the price future for Obzedat I would want to weasel my way out of it. It all really depends on whether a midrange deck in those colors exists in a future devoid of Lords of Innistrad and souls that linger.

Will Esper control be the future of the format? Will Obzedat be a good enough finisher with Ætherling, Blood Baron of Vizkopa and that M14 lifelink Angel I don't know the name of and can't be bothered to look up--fine, I looked it up. It's "Archangel of Thune"--vying for the same slots? Obzedat is a card that has more to lose than it does to gain if you ask me, so I'm staying away. I could see him getting a bit more play because he can do serious work, but I'm not betting money on it.

I think the glaring spotlight in the board is fun. It not only helps a bit against Bant Hexproof, it also lets you get in with an unblockable alpha strike, and this deck can make use of both of those abilities.

Esper Control and its Ætherlings

The Esper Control deck managed to make Top 8 but lost in the first round. It's tough to beat straightforward aggro decks after an entire day of playing tight, so take that into account.

I'm interested to think what the future of this deck will be after rotation given the enormity of what it loses to rotation. If an Esper control deck is possible moving forward, I imagine it may be radically different. Given decent countermagic and no more Cavern of Souls but also no more Snapcaster Mage, control decks will play differently. Ætherling is likely to make a big splash, and given the spread is in the negative numbers--some people are selling him for less than the highest buylist values I've seen. That's insane--I expect him to make an impact because dealers do, too.

U/W/R Geist managed two Top 8 finishes. The deck is strong, and has a faster clock than control decks with almost as many control elements (though it mainly uses them to maintain tempo), and I think this deck is a solid choice.

No Junk Aristocrats, which bums me out. I like that deck a lot--probably as much as the Act 2 Aristocrats builds we see. I'm going to miss Blood Artist when it's gone, but at least I still have Legacy.

Two Jund decks in the Top 16. Jund will never not Top 8, probably. These are stock-looking lists. Midrange is going to have no idea what to do when it loses literally every creature it's playing right now to rotation. RTR block gave us a ton of creatures and no one seems to care. Expect post-rotation Standard to very closely resemble the Block GP format much more than it has in past years.

One surprise is how Reanimator was shut out of Top 8. Getting 9th and 10th seems to indicate they either drew or lost early and couldn't draw into Top 8. Generally, 9th place is someone who drew early in the day and then lost and has to win out the rest of the day. Seeing Reanimator in this slot seems to indicate that the hate people are packing gives it a hard time. This seems to indicate it's working. This could impact how Deadbridge Chant-Scavenging Ooze-Deathrite Shaman will work going forward, although the rotation will eliminate Ground Seal, which is basically the only hate card that's maindeckable.

Legacy is Better

And that's in general, not just because my buddy Chris Andersen took it down. I followed his progress via periodic facebook updates and was a little surprised he had such an easy time of it with Tezzerator. Basically the only instructive thing I got out of him was "Lodestone Golem got there," which reinforces a general feeling of "their spells being expensive is bad for them" that has me 100 copies deep on Thalia, Guardian of Thraben.

Tezz and/or Karakas

I honestly don't know what to think about this deck. The QS forums are full of people who are ready to bet their wad on Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas each time the deck wins an event and maybe the deck is better than anyone gives it credit for. This deck either makes no waves or wins the event, so either it's luck-based or it's under-represented.

I think at the very least, foil Tezzeret is due to go up, but the amount of room the non-foil has to grow is lower and that means buying into him for growth is cash-intensive. I generally don't like to buy a card for $10 hoping to sell it for $12 (or $15 to sell for $18 in this case, I guess) but if this card never gets reprinted it could climb higher than I'm willing to concede it could right now.

Planeswalkers have the added appeal of collectiblity on top of playability and that gives them a little juice when it's time for the price to go up a bit. Tezz already had no trouble returning to his pre-rotation value, so if you want to speculate on this guy, I won't try and talk you out of it.

Death and Taxes continues to do work. All of the lands that can go in it aren't done going up, so if you were going to wait and pick them up later to play with, don't. It couldn't hurt to speculate on Legacy lands right now, especially those that see play but haven't gone up yet.

Karakas is seeing less play in sideboards against Sneak and Show but that doesn't matter since D&T will pick up the slack and it runs a whopping four copies. I thought I was getting away with murder outing these at $75 in trade at Gen Con a year ago--things change fast! Don't expect the judge foil Karakas to mitigate the spike much with a popular deck jamming a play set.

Stifling Developments

Turns out it IS a thing. I knew it wouldn't be long before someone tried to run Varolz, the Scar-Striped in a Stiflenought deck, but I didn't expect it to get 9th at its first event.

It gives the traditional Stiflenought deck a facelift by cutting a lot of chaff and adding the benefit of the two best recent additions to Legacy--Deathrite Shaman and Abrupt Decay. Couple that with the Daze-Brainstorm-Stifle package and you got a stew, baby! I am scooping every Varolz I can get my hands on at the moment.

RUG Delver is the herpes of Magic, isn't it? All it took was a flying nacatl to turn the mediocre Canadian Thresh deck people were getting creative with--Grim Lavamancer and Trinket Mage to get Basilisk Collar--into a stock 75 that everyone and their brother would call "the best deck in the format" for a year. I'd like to see this deck die, but once you drop two grand on a mana base, it's not super likely you'll change decks on a whim. Be prepared to beat this deck, or stay home.

If it weren't for St Louis doubling down on Delver douchebaggery we'd have had eight unique decks in the Top 8. Not bad for a format Wizards has officially decided is on its own. Let's keep Legacy going for a few more years, what do you say?

Worth noting is that a team from Michigan composed of Ari Lax, Matt McCollough and Alexander John very nearly won the GP in Providence. But so what? It was Limited. Joking aside, I'd have loved to see a team from Michigan win the GP that TSG and Aaron Forsythe both said would be the biggest Grand Prix this year. I'd be interested to see if more people pre-register for Vegas than played in GP Providence. I should have made TSG bet us dinner on it.

GP Gothenburg was Limited as well, so I guess we're out of events to talk about.

Stick a Forked Bolt in Me, I'm Done

That's all for now, kids. Don't do anything I wouldn't do. Actually, I wouldn't play Constructed so you probably shouldn't base your life decisions on what some guy on the internet says. You can do stuff I wouldn't do. I'll allow it.

Insider: Five Tips to Maximize Sales at a GP

Posted on June 10, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Don’t you love the feeling of making profit on a speculative buy, even if it’s just a couple bucks? Recently I made a foolhardy bet on Didgeridoos which happened to pay out. Even though I netted a measly eight bucks, the emotional victory was much greater. I believe this Twitter response best sums it up:

My thoughts exactly.

Why Does This Matter?

If you’re like me, then you get excited about making any money on Magic. Sure, making 100% gains is nice but even making a few bucks on an underpriced eBay auction still gives me a rush. Knowing that my Magic account is gaining, even in small increments, is rewarding. I am the type who strives to maximize down to the dollar.

But this shouldn’t stop with silly, speculative plays like Didgeridoo. I should seek to muscle as many dollars as I can on all my cards. Whether I’ve made fifty or five dollars in profit, I still value each dollar equally. And since I know even small profits are meaningful to me, I should treat every incremental buck as another small victory.

I did just this at GP Providence this past weekend. Most of you probably already know I decided to sell out of Legacy at this event – I won’t bore you with this topic anymore since I know people have tired of this debate. If you want some more details as to my motivation, ask me in the forums or via PM.

It will be much more informative for me to take you through the procedures I followed in order to maximize every dollar I could. Because of my diligent efforts, I took in about 15% more in sales than I initially projected. In silly magazine headline fashion, I present to you: Five ways to maximize sales of Legacy and larger ticket items at a GP!

Tip #1: Do Your Homework Beforehand

The big ticket items will naturally be the cards where the most money can be made or lost. Haphazardly jumping from vendor to vendor at a Grand Prix can be time consuming and prevent you from maximizing value. Before you even think about vendors, you should first use mtg.gg and other online buy lists to determine which stores are paying highest on all your major cards.

I ended up creating a spreadsheet of said cards. Included in the spreadsheet was the card name and quantity to sell, condition, top NM buy price on mtg.gg, store paying that top price, and an approximate multiplier to account for condition. Here’s an example from my spreadsheet:

These were the numbers I worked with for my Dual Lands. It’s a little cluttered, but the information was incredibly helpful. You will see the first column of prices reflect the amount I would be willing to take for each set of Duals, total. These values reflect an estimation of mtg.gg buy price, condition, fees, and etc. The next column shows the top buyer for each Dual, followed by the price those buyers are advertising online. The last column was a last minute addition. As it turns out, MTG Deals had some of the highest buy prices on NM Dual Lands. But they’re not in mtg.gg. So I simply created a separate column to show what MTG Deals’ prices were on anything higher than top mtg.gg price.

When I sat down with buyers I knew exactly how much I wanted. The buyer at the MTG Deals booth was thoroughly impressed with my preparedness, and for knowing some of their buy prices better than he did! Onlookers also expressed their interest in this spreadsheet.

Tip #2: Don’t Be Afraid to Say No

MTG Deals didn’t give great buy prices on everything. Some of my played Duals were knocked down more than I would have liked due to condition. Each time they offered me a value below my expectation, I simply wrote down the number they offered and politely declined.

It was tempting to simplify the process by accepting all their offers. But here’s a well-known fact: many dealers don’t have a full stock of Dual Lands available at all times. Therefore, some dealers may be willing to pay more than others.

What’s more, many dealers scrutinize card condition differently. What may look MP to one dealer looks SP to another, and so on. Not only is there no obligation to accept an offer, but it’s actually wise to decline anything you’re unhappy with. There is very little cost to writing down the offers you’re declining and moving on. You can always come back a little later to take their offer.

Tip #3: Condition Is Key

When it comes to buying and selling Legacy staples in person, stores no longer operate in the NM/SP/MP realm. There were some cases where dealers offered me four different prices on four copies of the same card. Many of the dealers had up to five different prices for a card. For example, I saw one dealer with Force of Wills for sale at $100, $95, $90, $85, and $80 all based on condition. My advice: treat your valuable cards very gently. A single scratch on a Legacy staple can literally cost you $5.

Dual Lands specifically had an enormous spread: I managed to sell three of my Underground Seas for NM price, but MTG Deals offered a full $20 less for my fourth copy, which I felt was NM- at worst!

Rather than take an offer I wasn’t thrilled with, I showed the Sea to Strike Zone. Interestingly, they also didn’t consider the card NM. I was offered around the same price as what MTG Deals could offer. Did I throw in the towel and accept the disappointing price?

Tip #4: Negotiate!

I cannot emphasize this point enough. Dealers have somewhat arbitrary buy prices on so many cards. With the rapid fluctuations these days, it’s so difficult to stay up to date on everything. There is no harm in providing a counter-offer, possibly alongside citing what other dealers are currently paying. It works.

In the case of my NM- Underground Sea, I countered with a number $10 higher than his. Initially the buyer passed, but he came back to it and asked another staff member how many they had in stock. The number was quite low for a dealer – likely single digits. He proceeded to take the card out, accepting my counter-offer. The result: I obtained a price very near top NM buy price on mtg.gg without the fees and shipping – a worthwhile endeavor.

Tip #5: Shop Around

I went to Strike Zone second because they had many higher buy prices on mtg.gg, on average. But even after their booth I still had some significant staples remaining in my binder. My job was not complete.

The beauty of large events like Grand Prix is that there are so many vendors close together in competition with each other. Every vendor has a different local metagame and therefore every vendor has different quantities of cards in stock. This may not apply on Standard staples like Voice of Resurgence – copies are sufficiently available and every dealer has the same price. But on older, rarer cards local supply/demand can yield large variations in price.

I sold to no less than five vendors before my selling was finished. Each one had some higher offers and some lower. Naturally I sold the higher offers and declined the lower ones until the cards were gone. By being persistent and running through the dealer gamut, I managed to extract as much value as I could from my collection.

So Much Learned

This experience taught me a great deal. I was very pleased with how my advanced research gave me a significant leg up on the dealers I interacted with. There were multiple occasions where the dealer cited me a lower price than advertised on their site. I kindly pointed this out to them and they often matched the online price. Everyone is human – no dealer can remember all their numbers for every condition of every card.

With some larger ticket items, the condition of a card has such a profound impact. But condition is somewhat subjective, meaning some dealers will view the same card differently from others. This leads to different buy prices offered. Any spread in buy price implies you can invest a little more effort to maximize your cash – down to the last dollar.

…

Sigbits – GP Providence Edition

Here are three surprises I experienced when attempting to sell cards to dealers.

No one wants played Plateaus. The cheapest copies on TCG Player are damaged and played for around $35. I figured I could get at least $30 on my copies. Turns out my MP copy couldn’t fetch a number that high from any dealer. I ended up settling for $25.
SCG can be influenced by their stock. When I offered them my Didgeridoos they laughed at me and said they weren’t interested. I promptly indicated that their online buy list offered $1 and they were sold out at $3.99. They offered me $2 each as a result, and I proceeded to make my first profit ever on a Homelands card.
Dealers may not be dropping their sell prices for Modern Masters reprinted cards, but they certainly are dropping their buy prices. I had to settle for disappointing numbers on my Tombstalkers and Knight of the Reliquary. The worst though were my Slaughter Pacts – I could only get about $1.50 each on them!
BONUS tidbit! I had a graded NM Alpha Northern Paladin I brought with me to the GP, as well as a Summer Holy Strength. Turns out I’m not the only one who has a tough time moving these. I only received one (lowball) offer each on the Paladin and the Holy Strength. If you plan on investing in safe cards for slow profit growth, I’d suggest avoiding super-rare cards no one wants.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Wide Beta Spotlight Redux

Posted on June 7, 2013January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Important Correction

In last week's Portfolio Update, I talked about buying Mirrodin Besieged (MBS) mythic rares. This has turned out to be a mistake based on incomplete information. WoTC provides two dates when it comes to redemption. The first is a guarantee date, and the second is a cut off date. We are past the guarantee date for Scars block sets, but not yet passed the cut off date.

It appears that non-foil MBS sets are no longer available for redemption. Although we are not past the cut off date, WoTC is out of stock and has no intention to reprint any regular MBS sets. This thread from the mothership makes that explicit.

This is a clear mistake on my part. The recent drop in MBS prices has to be directly attributed to this lack of availability for redemption. And with WoTC being clear in the above linked thread regarding MBS availability, there is no reason to buy MBS mythics from a redemption angle. Prices on these cards should continue to drop.

Individual cards that see Modern play such as Hero of Bladehold and Thrun, the Last Troll might see future price gains, but the short term outlook on all these cards should be considered negative. On the other hand, junk MBS mythics such as Hero of Oxid Ridge will continue to fall in price without any demand from redeemers.

This was a big mistake on my part. Any readers who bought MBS mythics as a result of last week's portfolio update should take a close look at their holdings and possibly consider liquidation. My rationale for buying these cards has turned out to be incorrect, and you should act accordingly. From my own holdings, I vow to wait one week before I sell my cards, just in case this affects prices too much.

The Beta Spotlight

Next week, Wizards of the Coast (WoTC) will make a second attempt at temporarily turning off Version 3 of the MTGO client in favour of the current iteration of Version 4. Details on the Wide Beta Spotlight can be found here. The first attempt was cancelled last month after some outcry in the forums and on Twitter that the Open Beta was not yet ready for prime time. My first article on this topic can be found here. While I haven't tested out the Beta client lately, the 24 hour spotlight has a nice carrot attached to it.

As a means to encourage users to download and test out the new client, WoTC will be offering nix tix Dragon's Maze-Gatecrash-Return to Ravnica (DGR) draft queues. Instead of 2 tix plus product to enter a draft, a player only needs product. This is a substantial discount and will trigger a 24-hour period of heavy DGR drafting. It's much easier to 'go infinite' when one is not bleeding tix just to enter a draft.

The previous carrot offered by WoTC to encourage players to go online during the spotlight was an extra day of Dragon's Maze (DGM) prereleases. Nix tix should be a significantly more attractive reason to test out the new version of the client. Previous periods of nix tix queues have seen marked increases in drafting and should be treated like a release event. In other words, expect a lot of singles to hit the secondary market.

Nix Tix = Lots of Drafting

The impacts of nix tix queues for speculators will be felt primarily in the market for booster packs. When the cost of a draft drops by 2 tix over night, booster pack prices rise in response. Excess supply of Return to Ravnica (RTR) boosters on the secondary market is minimal as they are close to the store price of $3.99. They have been in the 3.8 to 4.0 tix range lately, and so it's reasonable to expect a small bump in their price. Speculators with any left over positions in RTR should take this moment to sell into this expected price increase.

Gatecrash (GTC) boosters are still priced at a discount on the classifieds as compared to the store, but they have been drifting higher since DGM release events finished up. With the positive trend set to continue, a period of intense DGR drafting will move prices of GTC boosters higher. Speculators who have been selling their GTC boosters should pause their sales and wait until the nix tix queues further reduce the excess supply of GTC boosters. If Modern Masters is not taken up by drafters, DGR drafting will continue unabated. A price bump next week should ensure that the price GTC boosters continue upwards into the 3.7 to 3.9 tix range, which would represent a rough equilibrium with store prices and is similar to what we already see for RTR.

Lastly, DGM boosters have been sitting in the 2.5 to 2.6 tix range. Although the medium term outlook on these is not favourable, a short-term price bump is still anticipated. Due to the low margins and liquidity that boosters have on the market, a short-term flip on these is a viable strategy. Buy DGM booster today and look to sell during the period of nix tix drafting. The two caveats for this strategy are the time and effort it takes to earn a small profit on a booster, and then the possibility that players stay away from the new client. However, nix tix is a strong motivation to get online so buying DGM boosters seems like a low-risk strategy to profit on this event.

In terms of singles, expect extra supply to enter the market, depressing prices. I don't think there's a strong strategy to employ here, but if you've been thinking about selling a card like Voice of Resurgence, it could be worthwhile to sell now and buy back later. Sphinx's Revelation and other high-value mythic rares from RTR block will probably see price drops as well.

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and watching in the market.

Selling:

Nothing to sell at the moment.

Buying:

Nothing to buy at the moment.

Watching:

GTC boosters have increased to a profitable level, but I will still be holding for a few more weeks. I'll be interested to see how nix tix DGR drafting affects prices going forward, but I expect a price bump followed by a continued up trend. Modern Masters seems like it's priced too high to significantly affect DGM drafting.
Standard prices seem to have mostly stabilized for cards from Innistrad block and M13. With a few Standard PTQs on the horizon, prices should rise in the coming weeks. Geist of Saint Traft has been a solid pick up, but Restoration Angel and Thragtusk are still depressed from where they were a few weeks ago.

Insider: Snap Judgments on Modern Masters

Posted on June 7, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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I’ve avoided it for long enough, but I think it’s finally time.

I’ve talked about Modern Masters in generalities before today, but never in specifics, for a few reasons. The most important of which is how seriously I take this column. I didn’t want to delve into specifics just to ride the “it” topic of the day or week. Despite how much we guessed or asserted, the truth is we didn’t know what would be in the set.

Now we do.

Another vital question still remains unanswered, namely how much of the set will be printed. Obviously this is a subject of immense importance, but it’s one I’d only be speculating on at this point.

But I do think it’s time to talk about Modern Masters. Over the next few weeks I'm going to address the topic from several different angles.

General impressions/predictions on singles/box prices and trajectories (today)
Modern Masters misses and opportunities (next week)
Post-Modern Masters targets (two weeks from now)

I want to break this up to avoid giving short shrift to anything, because I think there’s a lot to cover. And the tradeoff for my relative silence on the set in the past is that I’ll be talking about it a lot for the next few weeks. It’s safe to say managing this set correctly is probably the most important thing to hit MTG finance since the creation of Modern itself.

So let’s begin.

Supply Issues

If supply stays as it stands now, there’s not going to be any real difference in the price of mythics. Rares will move a little bit, and anything lower will take a substantial hit.

This article illustrates a lot of what we’ve been saying, and attempts to apply real (though estimated) numbers to the discussion.

With all the hype this set is getting, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more people attempt to enter Modern, which means prices aren’t dropping far. Sure, there will be some drops in the first month or so, but once boxes begin to dry up, they aren’t going anywhere but up. For most of the mythics, this is basically a non-starter in terms of price, because I don’t think it’s going to do much. And how many players really want to sell the Tarmogoyf they just opened? Instead, they’re going to start looking for three more.

Now, I will make a note here on Goyf, which is that I hate picking the card up despite what I just said. Why not just wait for Scavenging Ooze to bottom out in Standard and pick those up instead? Ooze is not just the cheap man’s Goyf, it’s actually just as good (or even better) in some cases. There are Legacy decks that use Ooze but not Goyf, and I think that keeps Goyf’s price from going too high, at least as long as there are cheap Oozes to grab.

The opportunity will be in rares and uncommons, which could actually flood a bit in the weeks following the Modern Masters event at GP Vegas (See you all there, I hope!). That means I’m moving on stuff like Manamorphose and Spell Snare and the like. Kitchen Finks, I will note, gets worse with Ooze entering the format, so keep that in mind.

And just a hint of baseless speculation. It’s my belief Wizards will issue more Modern Masters onto the market, even if it’s not a true second wave and instead just another part of the narrowly-allocated first wave. This is something that has been hinted at in their release materials to stores, and I have to imagine they have this in mind since prices so far haven’t moved at all.

Boxes

Boxes are way too much right now. I even put my money where my mouth was on this and sold the fourteen I had at $200 apiece. At the time of the sell that wasn’t as sweet of a deal as it is now, but I wanted to lock in profits rather than take a chance that Wizards disappointed with the set.

I’m glad that they didn’t, but people paying nearly $300 a box right now is insane. Sure, maybe it’ll be worth $400 in two years, but they could also keep the reprints flowing and it could not move much. This isn’t like a From the Vaults where the cards aren’t likely to show up again. Instead, these are all cards Wizards is actively trying to reprint, which makes me like it less as a long-term investment. I also don’t like spending double the MSRP just to get into your position.

If you want to do this, wait a few weeks after the release and find out if any more waves are coming. If not, and you still want to invest, that will be the time. Box prices won’t be much different and there will be less risk.

Casual Staples

One thing many of us didn’t expect in this set was the huge influx of casual staples like Doubling Season and Adarkar Valkyrie.

These, I think, are the only rares/mythics that will see big movement. I haven’t heard anyone say “I really want Modern Masters” for my casual cards!” No, they want it for the tournament staples, and that means stuff like this is going to get sold to help recoup box costs.

Even though I do expect these to move briskly on the market, there’s a lot more for a popular-but-not-ubiquitous casual card like Valkyrie to lose than there is for a Vendilion Clique to lose.

Commons/Uncommons

There’s also a ton of “money” commons and uncommons you may have totally missed while skimming the spoiler.

Etherium Sculptor is a great pick from bulk, as is Manamorphose, Flickerwisp and Faerie Macabre. While on some level that sucks for people who pick collections like I do, it also adds a little bit of unseen value to a pack, so remember that even the commons in the draft leftovers from a set like this are worth looking through.

People obviously know about Path to Exile, Finks and Relic of Progenitus, but if you want to find some free value don’t forget about the rest.

Conclusion

Overall, I’m excited to draft the set, and I’m excited for Vegas, where I and the rest of the Brainstorm Brewery crew have rented a house (come to our cookout on Friday and Saturday night!). I think this has created a ton of hype for Modern, and even if it doesn’t move prices as much as Wizards hoped there’s a lot for us to profit from here. But you can’t lose your head. Stay disciplined and make the safe moves, and it will pay off in the end.

Ten Cards You Should Be Playing

Posted on June 6, 2013June 5, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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Standard is diverse. Wizards has worked endlessly to craft a Standard environment where many archetypes are not only viable but compete week in and week out for supremacy. There is so much you can be doing with your deck in Standard right now and there is definitely a deck out there for you. Even if you don’t like any of the existing decks or versions of decks, you can alter an existing archetype to your liking and still find success.

Looking at the trends in Standard I have noticed a number of powerful cards that players, for one reason or another, are not playing right now. Today I want to discuss some of those cards, their strengths and weaknesses, and other reasons why you should think about playing them in your decks.

10.

When I was playing The Aristocrats, one of my favorite cards in the deck was Zealous Conscripts. Not only can you steal any permanent, but often you can sacrifice them to one of your other cards. With Standard slowing down more again, we are seeing much better targets for Conscripts like all of the different planeswalkers. Every time I cast this spell, my opponents were surprised as if they never thought I could be playing a copy in my deck. No one expects this card, especially maindeck. Zealous Conscripts needs to make a comeback in Standard.

9.

Four mana might seem like a lot, but if you are playing a midrange or control deck, you can afford to leave that much mana open to cast it. Helix 2.0 is taking longer to see play than many other Dragon’s Maze cards, but once the format comes around, you will be facing down large swings in life and tempo. The UWR control decks that have emerged in Dragon’s Maze Standard are already starting to adopt this card. For four mana, you are able to rid yourself of most threats in Standard. This may never be an automatic card to include four copies of, but don’t be surprised if you get blown out by one in the near future.

8.

This may be an obvious one to most of you but I still feel this card is underplayed right now. The diversity of the format gives Acidic Slime a chance to show off all of its strengths. Even though Acidic Slime has been around for a while now, I think this is the best it’s ever been.

While its primary function is to blow up your opponents lands repeatedly by combining it with Restoration Angel and Unburial Rites, this ooze has other strengths as well. Bant Hexproof is moving into position and attacking an unprepared format. Acidic Slime not only blows up the pesky auras, but also gives you a blocker to take out the creatures can be blocked. Even when you have no great targets, I’ve noticed that playing Slime as a blocker is an effective solution to many of the formats hard-to-deal-with creatures.

I have even heard it said that Acidic Slime is better than Thragtusk in Standard right now. Although I am not sure I would support that claim, I have seen games where the most aggressive Blitz decks were unable to cast any more spells because they had all of their lands blown up. This is a maindeck card and should be seeing more play than it does currently.

7.

Continuing in the vein of preparation for Bant Hexproof, we arrive at a particularly strong sideboard card. You would likely see this card in the sideboard of Junk Aristocrats, Bant Hexproof (for the mirror), and maybe even Reanimator if they decide to run more hate than just Acidic Slime. This is not the type of card that will take four spots of your sideboard, but certainly two copies would help against a popular deck. Another option if you don’t have the green mana would be Paraselene. Be careful not to rely on these enchantment destruction spells too heavily though because you still need to deal with the creatures they were attached to. They are a vital part of any sideboard with these colors, so don’t prepare for an event without them!

6.

This Avacyn Restored all-star needs to make a comeback in a big way. There are so many targets that make playing this Shock variant enticing, how can you resist including it? I think it’s time to set those Tragic Slips in a box and return to “pillar your guy.”

Most decks have targets for this removal spell. You can hit everything from cheap aggressive creatures to mana producers. The main reason you should be looking to Pillar though is for dealing with the resilient threats. Between Doomed Traveler, Voice of Resurgence, and the return of Strangleroot Geist, you won’t lack for juicy targets.

5.

Speaking of Voice, have you noticed the price on this Grizzly Bear? When the set was released, even the supporters for this creature didn’t believe it would be a fifty-dollar card, but we have reached that point. By now, everyone knows this guy is good. My opinion is that his power isn’t fully explored yet.

He has seen some play in Bant Hexproof, Junk Aristocrats, and a few other underplayed archetypes, but he is still finding new places to shine. At many events over the past few weeks, Voice has been revitalizing the Zoo Archetype. This hate bear is going to impact Standard as well as both eternal formats. The reason this list includes him is because players are not respecting him yet. If we do not get an exile effect in M14 or the new block, Voice could become even more powerful than he is currently.

Respect the Voice and prepare for it. Choosing cards like Pillar of Flame or Sever the Bloodline, at least while they are legal, will help you defeat the increasingly-popular Voice decks.

4.

For a while now, the card I have feared the most is this unplayed five-mana enchantment. My love for The Aristocrats is great and this curse is the bane of that deck. Think about resolving a spell that nullifies over half of the cards in a player’s deck. How has this card not seen play in sideboards? Lingering Souls, both halves of Doomed Traveler, Sorin, Lord of Innistrad, Gravecrawler, Champion of the Parish, Mayor of Avabruck, Blood Artist, Avacyn's Pilgrim, Arbor Elf, Lightning Mauler, Experiment One, Dryad Militant, and I’m sure this list is incomplete.

Both Reanimator and Jund Midrange should be looking to include this card because of how much it shuts down specific decks. Similarly Jace, Architect of Thought and Golgari Charm should be reassessed once more for the same reasons. I found Electrickery to be underwhelming because it is so ineffective in certain board states, so although there are similarities, I think any of the other similar cards are better choices.

3.

Many cards on this list are solid cards that saw lots of play in Standard but have fallen out of favor for one reason or another. Liliana is no different. We all know she is powerful enough for Standard, Modern, and Legacy alike. With Bant Hexproof developing increased support, Lily is needed once more. Combined with cheap removal, she can force nearly any creature off the board. Adding her back into Jund Midrange seems almost automatic to me at this point.

She also allows you to gain a benefit from dead cards in your hand by making both you and your opponent discard a card. This three-mana planeswalker is too good to sit on the sidelines for long. If you don’t think she is quite what you should be doing, try some Devour Flesh instead. Either way, removal that doesn’t target is necessary right now more so than it has been in a while.

2.

Through working with sideboard plans for The Aristocrats and creating my recent B/W Zombies deck, I have come to respect the power of Obzedat. Though it may seem mediocre, this finisher is a potent threat that can dig you out of games you had no business competing in. Many times against a variety of decks I saw this guy turn what I thought were no-out situations into victories.

Decks are not equipped to defeat the Ghost Council either. There are very few spells in Standard that actually deal with it. Jund Midrange has started playing a copy or two of Putrefy, but outside of that, your opponent is hoping to draw one of their few Tragic Slips or simply has no outs. The comparison is strange, but the only card I can relate Obzedat to is Gideon Jura. Both of them shut down the opponent's aggressive assault as well as attack their life total at some point. My next Standard project may involve Ghost Council as a central piece.

1.

At first I too was skeptical. Is this mana-intensive threat actually good enough to warrant inclusion in an existing archetype? Is it good enough to build a deck around?

I think the resounding answer is yes. If you have already played with or against this card, you know just how powerful it really is. Not only is it hard to kill in the vein of the classic control finishers, but it also ends games much quicker than we are used to seeing. When you cast Ætherling, you likely have access to about eight mana. Once you untap with him in play, you can start dealing chunks of unblockable damage.

By ending games much sooner, the control deck cuts off any chance their opponent has of drawing answers to get back in the game. My initial worry with this card was that too much mana was required to make it good. Now that seems like an irrelevant issue as long as you craft your deck for a long game. Over the next year, we are going to be seeing a lot of Ætherling.

That's All, Folks

All of these cards are good enough to see more play than they do currently. Many of them are Dragon’s Maze cards that require more time for players to adjust to, but some of them are just strong cards that have not been well-positioned for some time.

Whatever deck you are playing, think about adding some of these cards to it. Be careful though because once you make a big change to your deck, you may need to reevaluate the rest of it. Even the best decks in the format are in a constant state of flux so don’t fall behind the curve. Whether you adjust your deck with new tech or old staples, make sure you are thinking about the cards you choose for your deck and not just copying what other players have done. If you fall into the cycle of copying the decks from previous weeks, you will be behind the curve and fall prey to other players' updates.

Until Next Week,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: The Mathematician on Return on Investment

Posted on June 5, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sebastien Morin

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First, I would like to thank everybody that gave us good comments and have helped us so far in our quest to bring you the best articles we can provide. Encouragement along with your comments help us know what you want to read and guide us in our writing.

This week, I realized that the last month of trading has been pretty harsh. As Forrest Gump philosophically told the stickers guy while running, “Shit happens”. First, we were wrong on 3-4 specs. Then, we had a bug in our bots' buylist and were attacked twice, resulting in buying cards at prices much higher than we were willing to. Finally, it seems like we underestimated the 6th set effect (Dragon Maze's release) in conjunction with a Limited MOCS season on the value of Block and Standard staples.

In brief, we are glad June has come! There are times, just like in the poker world, when you seem to take rational decisions but always end up with the wrong read or the bad beat. I know that at the end of the year, the month of May will only be one among the twelve other months of the year, and that we will close the books on positive final results come January.

This week's topic addresses Return on Investment (ROI), but more precisely, we'd like to ask you: how big of a return do you need to be satisfied with your initial investment? Many people will answer the sky is the limit and that it’s never enough. Sébastien and I had a meeting about this. As anyone else, we would love to make infinite money. But we think that establishing a goal is a good motivation.

After giving it some thought, we came to the conclusion that doubling our entire bankroll over a year is a good target. Once the goal was established, I thought about a tool that could be useful to keep track of the efficiency of each trade, to better figure out whether the trade was helping us reaching our goal or holding us back. Let's call it Jeff’s ratio. I don’t know if there is already a ratio like that out there, but if not I would like my name to be on it! To make sure we fully understand the Jeff ratio, we first need to understand the basic theory.

Return on Investment (ROI)

Here is the definition of ROI from a popular investment site, www.investopedia.com:

A performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit (return) of an investment is divided by the cost of the investment; the result is expressed as a percentage or a ratio.

The return on investment formula goes like this:

In the above formula, the ratio you obtain refers to the percentage of profits obtained from selling the card. Return on investment is a very popular metric because of its versatility and simplicity. That is, if an investment does not have a positive ROI, or if there are other opportunities with a potentially higher ROI (given limited resources), then the investment should be not be pursued.

Similarly, we might want to calculate an expected ROI before investing. This can be calculated simply using the following formula:

To calculate the EROI, we could also use the Expected Value (EV), which we talked about in this article.

What is Considered a Good ROI

Now that we know how to calculate ROI, we need to evaluate what should be considered a good ROI. It’s weird sometimes how one point of view can differ drastically from another, depending on the field you work in. If you talk about ROI with a bank owner, he will probably tell you that a return of 5-7% over a year is huge nowadays. But if you talk to a poker player, he could say he has earn 300-400% of his initial stack to consider it a good night of work.

So what should we consider a good ROI as Magic traders? It all depends on what kind of trader you are. There are three main kinds.

The Positive-Is-All-I-Care-For Trader

Many traders don’t really think about ROI. As long as the spec ended up profitable, no matter by how much, they are okay with their move. I remember a good friend of mine watching me play poker a few years ago. He always told me that a positive night in poker is a good night! He would probably be this kind of trader. This is a good strategy for relaxed trading but certainly not the optimal strategy. While your tix are locked on a spec, you might miss on a better target because you're short on tix. In such a case, your investment will actually have “cost” you money. This is the opportunity cost of making a particular investment.

For example, you have a 200$ bankroll and invest every last cent of it in GTC boosters. You wait 30 days and sell everything for a $30 profit. In the meantime, the same $200 could have been invested in RTR boosters for a $50 profit. Your GTC investment was not bad, but it actually involved an opportunity cost of $20.

Note here that if you always apply our 5% rule and keep liquidity, this should not happen, but keeping an eye on EROI is still a good way to choose your spec.

The Long-Term Trader

Some traders prefer real estate to meta-calling, and they simply go for the safest targets possible to achieve profits. For example, you could always limit yourself to investing in lands, boosters and mythics just after rotation. These are the blue chips of Magic trading. These traders will be looking for a good ROI (usually higher than 25%) because they will invest the money for a (relatively) long time.

The Meta-Caller

This type of trader is on the look-out for the latest news to catch the next good hit. He will be looking for a shorter margin of profit (meaning a shorter ROI) but will usually sell shortly after. In the end, he will buy and sell many more times than the long-term trader, implying a greater number of transactions.

Many bots works this way. Some only keep a 2.5-3% margin, but if they generate enough traffic they end up making huge amounts of money.

Jeff’s Ratio

If I make money with a spec, even if it’s a tiny amount, I can’t really be angry. But I’m not a Positive-Is-All-I-Care-For trader. Sébastien and I try to mix some of the other two strategies. That’s where my ratio can be useful.

The basic idea is to set a goal for yourself over a given period of time. We think that 100% for a year is really good (we doubles our money). To reach our goal, we need to earn a certain amount of money every now and then, to eventually double up. Since 100% is our main goal (yours can certainly be different), I’ll make my calculations with our personal objective in mind.

There are 365 days per year and I need 100%. That makes a rough total of 0,27% per day if I want to reach my objective. In order to calculate if a spec was a good one, I simply need to consider my ROI and how much time my money was invested and locked into this transaction. Then I use this formula to calculate the ratio:

If the ratio is better than 0.27, then my ROI was okay. Let’s look at an example. Say I invest 200 tix in RTR boosters. After two months (60 days), I’m able to net a nice $50 profit. So my ROI here is 50/200 = 25% and Jeff’s ratio = 25% / 60 days = 0.416, which is well over the ROI I needed. If all our investments turn out this good, we end up with a yearly ROI of more than 100%.

Note that you will actually need less than a 0.27 ratio to double up since you’ll have more money to reinvest in the next target. I don’t want to get too technical here, so let's just say that the tool I propose is a good approximation and will help you stay focused on your goal.

This ratio could be included in your spreadsheet after each spec. You could then classify each spec from best to worst and see where you actually make money. Is it more in the long-term specs? Short-term? Standard vs. other formats?

The more targets you invest in and the more you trade, the harder it gets to evaluate how good your specs are for the period you held them. This is where the ratio really becomes useful. It can actually help you determine whether or not it is time to sell out of a position.

For example, let’s say you are now out of tix (or really short). You bought 100 GTC boosters at 2.65 and they are now worth 3.20. You ask yourself if you should sell them to buy a bunch of Vendilion Clique that are low right now (let’s say 18 tix because that’s the amount I paid for mine this week), due to the panic-sell from Modern Masters spoilers. You are pretty sure that GTC boosters will be 3.5 each in one month, but you are also sure that Vendilion will be a 27 tix card again in less than six months. Should we sell the GTC boosters?

Jeff’s ratio for boosters is calculated like this:

We will do the same for Vendilion Clique:

Note here that both specs would meet my requirements to double my money by the end of the year, but the boosters are still a keep. If we think that Vendilion Clique will only take five months to reach 27 tix, then Jeff’s ratio would be 0.33 and it would be better than boosters.

If the ratio is really close (like 0.33 vs. 0.3125), you should always opt for the shorter-term target. This way your money will be available sooner, and you can then reinvest somewhere else to generate more money. We could use a similar reasoning to evaluate if we better take a loss on one of our spec to reinvest the money on another target.

Jeff’s ratio can also help keep some things in perspective. First of all, it helps evaluate your specs in an impartial way. Your ratio is either good or not, period. You can’t lie to yourself.

Secondly, it can help you realize that oftentimes we are too impatient. We want our specs to make money right away. For sure, traders want movement. We read lots of articles, we spend time on the forums and chat with other traders every day. So we would like steady results. But if you set yourself a goal on the ROI you wish to obtain a year from now, and then calculate your own Jeff's ratio, you’ll see that you don’t need an astonishing profit per spec to reach your objectives. And even more important: a good spec can involve a long wait. Just try to remember that if trading would be like running, it would be a marathon, not a sprint!

So with this in mind, I guess we will have to wait for Thragtusk and Restoration Angel to make their last spike!

Thanks for reading and I hope my ratio will help you see things in a slightly different way...even when shit happens! Smile!

The Mathematician,
Jeff Goupil

P.S. As a side note, I’ll be running my first semi-marathon this summer (15 miles)! It's time to prove that my mind can be victorious over my body, so wish me luck!

Insider: Price Inflation of EDH cards

Posted on June 4, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers! The past two weeks my articles have been more analytic than usual and seem to be getting some solid feedback. With that in mind, I'd love to continue the trend this week. The idea for this one was suggested by a fellow writer on the forums (Ksunda), who gave me permission to use it for my article.

Increasing Prices

Recently there has been an ongoing debate about the inflation of MTG cards and what impact the casual/EDH crowd has had on it.

If you look at Standard decks nowadays compared to just five years ago you'll notice a drastic increase in overall cost. A large part of that is due to a) better but more expensive mana bases and b) the mythic rarity. Wizard's original claim was that mythic cards would be more flavorful cards, but not tournament staples... Apparently that never got passed down to the designers or whoever dictated rarity because many tournament staples of the last few years have appeared at the mythic rarity. But I digress.

Back to the inflation of EDH cards (I will always call it EDH; Commander is merely the product Wizards released.) It seems the first thing to do is to create a list of EDH staples to determine what effect, if any, the casual/edh crowd has had on their prices. We might be able to define some trends which could be used to speculate on future card prices.

I did choose certain criteria for my list: a) the card should not be played in any other format (at least not in any high-tier decks), b) the card should not have any reprints, as this affects card value and could complicate analysis, and c) the card should be played by a wide variety of EDH decks in its colors (i.e. it's a true format staple).

I choose to avoid lands in general because they often fall into multiple categories and I wanted to isolate casual-only cards. With the exception of Avenger of Zendikar and Oracle of Mul Daya, which saw play in Valakut decks, all other cards were rarely or never seen in SCG Top 8 Results during their tenure in Standard.

For comparison we'll also make a similar chart of cards that might have been dubbed "staples" during their Standard tenure. This chart appears after the first one below.

So without further ado,

The Test Data

Card Name	Rarity	Price at Release ($)	Price at Rotation ($)	Current Price ($)	Current Price as a % of Rotation Price
Apocalypse Hydra	M	2.78	1.49	6.38	428%
Celestial Mantle	R	0.51	0.88	3.36	375%
Nirkana Revenant	M	4.04	4.12	6.85	166%
Avenger of Zendikar	M	1.74	4.54	7.00	154%
Oracle of Mul Daya	R	1.78	1.5	4.01	267%
Dragonmaster Outcast	M	4.13	2.75	7.97	289%
Darksteel Plate	R	0.96	1.44	4.59	318%
Magister Sphinx	R	0.70	0.6	0.37	61.66%
It that Betrays	R	2.22	1.27	6.00	472%
Felidar Sovereign	M	2.31	2.51	5.62	223%
Dragon Broodmother	M	3.48	2.67	8.00	299%
Asceticism	R	0.79	1.79	4.29	239%
Beastmaster Ascension	R	0.87	0.76	1.71	225%
Vicious Shadows	R	0.31	0.55	0.25	45.45%
Caged Sun	R	1.1	1.31	2.4	183%

We can determine quite a few trends from the data above.

Casual mythics almost always go up in value (the data show a strong price increase in all casual mythics, but I don't like to use absolutes). These are all shown highlighted in orange to emphasize this trend.
Most cards saw saw drastic increases. The two that didn't decreased, but they never saw any positive price trends to indicate they were a good investment.
The average price percentage (including the two "negatives") was 265.6%, meaning that if you had invested in equal shares of all 15 of these cards, you would have made over 2.5 times your investment. All these cards are from Shards block forward, so this is at most a five-year investment.
This data implies that the casual crowd can have a drastic effect on cost increases of a card.

The Control Data

Now to turn to the Standard cards from the same era (Shards and after) to see if they have experienced similar phenomena.

Card Name	Rarity	Price at Release ($)	Price at Rotation ($)	Current Price ($)	Current Price as a % of Rotation Price
Lotus Cobra	M	24.67	7.77	4.90	63%
Batterskull	M	18.42	6.6	9.88	149%
Black Sun's Zenith	R	4.14	1.98	1.69	85%
Blade Splicer	R	1.08	1.98	1.08	54%
Gideon Jura	M	31.68	14.16	2.50	17.6%**
Goblin Guide	R	4.17	4.14	5.56	134%
Hero of Bladehold	M	8.01	4.27	3.78	88%
Hero of Oxid Ridge	M	5.62	1.1	1.74	158%
Kalastria Highborn	R	3.04	2.91	2.69	92%
Kargan Dragonlord	M	7.67	3.73	4.5	120%

Gideon Jura's huge drop can be explained by his reprint, which as my previous article explained can pummel price. Excluding him, our control has an average gain of 104.77%. So if you had invested equally in your tournament staples you would have still made about 6% on your investment. This isn't terrible, but it's nowhere near as good as if you'd traded them at rotation for the casual cards (which was still far later than the optimal time to trade them away.)

It's also important to notice that about one half of the Standard staples lost value and the overall average was bouyed by just a few cards. This is in contrast to the casual cards, which experienced increases across the board.

What to Do with the Data

Now that we have seen the trends, it would be wise to put them to use. We should isolate some casual cards that are nearing rotation (from Innistrad block), with an emphasis on mythics.

Angelic Overseer -- An angel with a useful ability that couples with another popular tribe
Army of the Damned -- Zombies + instant army + flashback
Drogskol Reaver -- Lifegain + card draw in popular colors
Elbrus, the Binding Blade -- An equipment with a really cool ability (ignoring the cost) and a flip card, so it's unlikely to be reprinted
Essence of the Wild -- Token strategies are always popular
Grim-grin, Corpseborn -- Zombie + Commander appeal + good color combination
Havengul Lich -- His ability is amazing and fun to play
Malignus -- Powerful in Commander
Mikeaus, the Lunarch -- White weenie strategies are always popular
Mikeaus, the Unhallowed -- Undying is already a powerful mechanic; evasion and acting as a lord for nonhumans is gravy.
Reaper from the Abyss -- Demon + cool ability
Temporal Mastery -- The most overhyped card from AVR has dropped considerably and EDH players do like to take extra turns.
Tree of Redemption -- He can reset your life in Commander and has some nutty interactions (like with Doran).

All of these mythics have a low cost of entry and decent profit potential. I would focus on the cards whose abilities are thematic or especially powerful in the right shell (mainly Havengul Lich, Army of the Damned, both Mikaeaus', and Drogskol Reaver). These are the cards I will be picking up and holding onto for a couple years.

Jason’s Archives: Doing Nothing

Posted on June 4, 2013June 4, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Spectaculars!

Today I want to talk to you about doing nothing.

Chapter 1, in which Jason is a Team Player, Then Isn't

I like this website. It has brought me incredibly limited amounts of fame, non-zero amounts of money and given me metaphorical tons of leeway. If you ask me, it doesn't get any better than that.

Accordingly, I like to pitch in around here and help out. When QS decided we were going to do a spoiler page for every set that comes out, I volunteered (either that or I was asked and didn't refuse. I honestly can't even remember). The finance community has their own ideas about the impact of certain cards, and while they usually overlap with playability, they don't always. There are deeper financial implications, so it's a great idea for a finance site to do their own spoiler.

Right now we're dual-wielding -- updating M14 and Modern Masters at the same time. At the time of publication, Modern Masters is fully spoiled and we know that a lot of key cards are not in the set.

If you check out the Modern Masters page, you'll notice I haven't contributed to it. This may seem unfair to Sigmund and Gervaise who are doing all of the work without my help, and let this serve as the first formal apology to those guys.

In reality, I wasn't slacking. On no fewer than five separate occasions I had one browser window with the day's Modern Masters spoilers open and another with the page to edit the spoiler open and after sitting there for a few minutes I did nothing.

My reasoning was simple -- what do I have to say about Modern Masters spoilers that's unique? If the card is in Modern Masters, the price is likely going down in the short term. If it isn't, it's likely going up (in the cases where people thought cards would be in the set but to their surprise aren't). Wouldn't I just be copying MTGSalvation's spoiler onto our letterhead and passing it off as if I'd contributed something?

With no potential for analysis, I decided to focus on M14 until they decided they weren't going to spoil anything worth talking about for three weeks, because no one cares about M14 right now with Modern Masters coming out. It didn't seem like I could contribute anything useful so I just didn't.

Chapter 2, in which Modern Masters Cards Should Be Dumped, Then Aren't

I had been trying to sell Elspeth, Knight-Errant on eBay for a month. It's likely my asking price was a bit too high, but given that it was based on previous "completed auction" prices and I occasionally do a 5-10% off sale to turn inventory over, I figured I'd sell it. When there was talk of the card being in Modern Masters, the play would have been to ship the card for its buylist price before the old buylist price became retail.

Given that there was no convenient Grand Prix to attend and there is a large built-in delay with online buylists, I opted to wait it out. Elspeth was later confirmed in Modern Masters and, as predicted, the price dropped. If I shipped to a buylist, they likely wouldn't honor the price and would just ship it back. It felt like the play was to take them down from eBay and sit on them, hoping the short-term price dip from Modern Masters would be offset by increased demand for the card going forward.

It doesn't do me any good to panic at this point, so it looks like cards like Elspeth that are experiencing a dip are going to end up a long-term hold. It didn't seem like I could benefit from dumping now so I just didn't.

Chapter 3, in which Thoughtseize Will Be in MM as an Uncommon, Then Isn't

So the full spoiler is up. I'll be contributing to the QS Spoiler page tonight, so by the time this article sees publication I will have already done it. Maybe. I guess go verify that right now and report back to me whether I'm a liar.

The fully-spoiled set comes with several surprises. People were sure that Thoughtseize, Auriok Champion, Remand, Noble Hierarch and Digeridoo would be in Modern Masters. But let's not be ridiculous. Digeridoo is on the Reserve list.

With Thoughtseize officially ruled out for Modern Masters and an unlikely inclusion in M14, people now look to Theros for its reprinting. Even if that's the case, in the near-term there is no reprint in sight and nothing to reign in the already ridiculous price of this card. While it's only marginally better than Inquisition of Kozilek in Legacy (I'd even argue Cabal Therapy is preferable in a lot of matchups), Modern is an entirely different animal and I'd say a majority of Thoughtseize's recent bump has come from Modern play.

I fully expected to wake up this morning and see that Noble Hierarch and Thoughtseize had skyrocketed in price, but all I saw were people surprised about last night's Game of Thrones episode.

I think you still have a bit of time to snag cards that were expected to be in MM but weren't. Everyone was in a holding pattern, waiting for the cards to be spoiled and now I think you can buy in at retail and benefit from a short-term price spike. But at that point you're paying $70 to hope it goes to $75 so you make $0 after fees and shipping. Remand is potentially a good target (Spell Snare was, mercifully, included in Modern Masters) but again, you're paying a lot initially for a card that already has an imprinted price memory associated with it and hoping to take advantage of a very short-term price spike that may never happen.

It didn't seem like it was worth the risk of buying cards confirmed not in MM so I just didn't.

Chapter 4, in which Players in Baltimore Wish There Had Been a GP

Not for them to play in, but if there had been a GP or PT or something, the winners of the SCG Open might not have been Brad Nelson and Todd Anderson.

SCG Open Baltimore Standard Decks

Well, 90% of the people who play this game can relax; Brad Nelson brewed another deck. For a while there it was looking like if we went another two or three weeks without a new Brad Nelson list people would have to either play what Gerry Thompson is playing or copy a decklist from the PT. It was looking very dire. A few desperate individuals abandoned hope entirely and resorted to brewing their own decks, like the Dust Bowl farmers who made their own clothes out of potato sacks during the great depression.

Maybe it's not quite so bad as all that, but Brad came through in a big way, updating The Aristocrats into something he's trying to get people to call "Aristrollcrats". Considering he gave a full 50% of the Aristocrats from previous builds their walking papers (although, Falkenrath Aristocrat has flying, so maybe not "walking papers"), that "s" at the end of "Aristocrats" isn't super appropriate.

Whatever you want to call it ("Aristrollcrats" is no "Zombardment" but even I can't seem to improve on the name), it makes great use of Varolz, the Scar-Striped]Varolz, a card I called "the most likely of the guild runners to become a thing" a few weeks back. Lacking sac outlets but running a full complement of Blood Artists, the deck looks like a blast.

Is it Brad's fault that Voice of Resurgence hit $50 on SCG? I'd say it's not unlikely. Star City Games has a tendency to raise the prices of cards Team SCG is brewing with before the event the deck premiers, so a random, unexplained spike sometimes makes more sense a bit later.

I like this deck. It loses its entire....all of it with rotation, but for now, WEEEEEE!

The Voice of Naya

Three Naya Aggro decks in the Top 8 seems about right for an SCG Open. Beatdown players are trading the explosiveness of R/G for the reach granted by Voice of Resurgence and Advent of the Wurm.

With Voice everywhere now, don't expect the price to come down much soon. This is one card I will fully admit I called all wrong. I knew the card was powerful and had a lot of potential, but given its $22 preorder price tag, I opted to stay away. I figured the card would have to sustain $40+ to be worth buying at $22 initially, and I figured as more packs were opened the price would go down. I predicted a similar trajectory to Jace, Architect of Thought which saw $50 briefly before plummeting to the paltry $10 it is right now.

However, as more packs are opened, more decks are jamming Voice and the demand is outpacing the supply. I didn't exactly lose money staying away from Voice, but I could have doubled up on it had I bought in* and since I like to be accountable when I call it wrong, I'll fully admit I called this card wrong.

This deck is pretty interesting, too. Progenitor Mimic continues to climb and as long as there is Thragtusk and Acidic Slime, expect it to stay that way. With foils sold out at $40, the casual, cube, Commander and... citchen table (nailed it) communities have clearly spoken. Mimic does some silly stuff, but Conjurer's Closet did almost the same stuff (short of making a pile of copies) and no one cared.

This isn't me saying Mimic is as bad as you think Closet is; I'm saying Closet is nearly as good as Mimic is, and it's still legal. In any case, Mimic is a good card and I hope you bought in when it was cheap. Also, people are finally starting to take my advice and play Mutilate. Just in time for M14.

B/R Zombies in the Top 8? Nice. Not much financially relevant other than to say "it may not be too late to sell every card that's in B/R Zombies."

Reanimator Top 8s events. Sometimes it only makes one Top 8. This is 75/75 of a list I've already seen.

Getting 9th place, likely with the same record as 7th and 8th, was an Esper deck. Since control can be slower, you're more likely to draw during the event and miss Top 8 so control ends up 9th-11th a lot.

I like this Esper list a ton. I'd like it if people were experimenting more with cards like Uncovered Clues, but as long as we have stuff like Forbidden Alchemy, no one will. Still, Esper control will likely replace the walkers it's losing with something. Maybe more Ætherling, or more copies of the walkers it still has. Losing Sorin, Lord of Innistrad]Sorin will likely hurt quite a few control decks, but something will step up, even if it's the half-assed Baneslayer Angel]Baneslayer we have in the form of Blood Baron of Vizkopa.

The Busted (Read Awesome) Format

Let's talk about something else, now.

SCG Open Baltimore Legacy decks

So people who were upset that Brad Nelson ringered the Standard portion were relieved that someone else ringered Legacy -- this time Todd Anderson.

Todd didn't run that one-of Notion Thief that could have lead to some hilarious pantsings when his opponent cast Brainstorm, but Todd's list is a stock-looking list and it's fine. Not much financially relevant here, but Blade decks are always going to be a factor.

Two Sneak and Show decks in the Top 8? Odd. This deck has fallen off recently, but it's one of those decks where if you run hot and your opponents stumble, you autowin certain matches.

I like Shardless BUG a lot, and not just because I'm heavily invested in Bayou, Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman. I think the deck is one of the better aggro-control builds and has the tools to get the job done. Plus, it encourages Wizards to put good cards in Planechase.

This pile reminds me of that U/W/R (hur hur, Amurican!) pile that crushed it in Modern for a whole week. Grim Lavamancer has really fallen off and it's good to see it back. Playing enough instants to flip Delver of Secretes]Delver is great Lavamancer food. Which will win -- their Deathrite keeping you off of cards to exile to Lavamancer, or Lavamancer destroying the ass out of Deathrite with actual lava?

I like renewable sources of two damage in a Vendilion Clique]Clique-Deathrite-Stoneforge Mystic]Stoneforge format. Lavamancer is funnier with Basilisk Collar, but how are you supposed to tutor for Collar? Trinket Mage? Because that's totally reasonable and we should get back to when the meta played stuff like that. Geist also does work in this deck, and the new legend rule makes it even better.

Maverick gets 9th? Tiebreakers are heartbreakers. As an experienced Maverick player, I'm not sure why this deck has a reputation for having a bad combo matchup. This deck does not have a bad combo matchup, especially if built correctly. The hate bears are such a solid delay and the deck has a fast enough clock that the turns Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]Thalia and Gaddock Teeg]Teeg set them back will be enough. I still think Punishing Grove is the way to go, especially in a meta with Deathrite everywhere, but G/W Maverick has more room for hate and that gets there. Four maindeck Thalia? Seeeeeems good. Gut shot in the board? Very nice.

Maybe trade for Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas. The card likely isn't going down, and even as overrated and Tier 2.5 as the deck is, it occasionally wins an event and why would you not pick up an old planeswalker? Sarkhan Vol took a hit with MM reprinting, but Tezz was spared. I dunno, I'm not going deep but I'm taking them out of binders when I find them.

Time to Leave

It doesn't seem like I can think of a smooth way to wrap this up, so I just won't.

- Jason Alt

* I spent my spec money instead on Deadbridge Chant at $1.50-$2, which peaked at $8. Quadrupling on a $1.50 investment seems better than doubling up on a $22 investment, but when that's scaled up the problem becomes "how do I move all of these copies?" If you have ready outs for a lot of copies, look for smaller, scalable investments like Chant that can really pay off (Chant has a better chance of hitting $15 with a lot of play than Voice does of hitting $100). But if you invest one play set at a time, you could have bought two play sets, sold one now and kept the other to play with for free. It's all about your goals. Look at me! Endnotes! I'm like David Foster Wallace!