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Insider: What to Expect from Shocklands

Posted on January 11, 2013January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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As a set, it appears that Return to Ravnica (RtR) has found a price bottom in recent weeks. The chart below is an index produced by mtggoldfish.com which tracks prices from supernovabots.com. Prices have been fairly stable since mid-December, but the latest price increase has brought the price of headline mythics either above their lows or to new highs.

For instance, Jace, Architect of Thought was bouncing up and down between 15 and 16 tix, and as of January 10th, 2013 is at 17.3 tix on supernova. Sphinx's Revelation has been down to 23 tix, but now is closer to 24 tix. The less-played RtR shocklands were generally below 3 tix since the start of December, and they are all above 3 tix today.

The chart below represents RtR prices as an index. In the last week, the index value dipped to it's lowest level and then rebounded. With Gatecrash on the horizon, players are looking towards a shift in the Standard metagame and interest in RtR cards is rising.

Also, Gatecrash previews have appeared to be less powerful than RtR previews did at this point in the spoiler season. To put it bluntly, Gatecrash previews have been underwhelming. If this trend continues, RtR will dominate block constructed and recent price strength in block staples such as Armada Wurm might signal increased interest in that format online.

To sum up, if you have been interested in speculating on RtR cards, they will not be cheaper in the coming months than they have been in the last six weeks. Hopefully you've been accumulating the shocklands as these are some of the lowest risk speculative targets from RtR. Let's look back to what happened to some other dual lands from previous years to get a sense of what we can expect from shocklands as a speculative bet in the next 12 months.

Scars of Mirrodin

The fastlands from Scars of Mirrodin (SoM) were released in the shadow of the Zendikar fetchlands. For this reason, they were not fully appreciated until after Zendikar block rotated out of Standard. Looking at the price history of the fastland index, a bottom occurs at the release of New Phryexia (NPH). The flood of supply from NPH release events depressed prices on all cards from SoM and the fastlands suffered too.

Once M12 was released and drafters shifted focus, prices on the fastlands started upwards, and this trend intensified with the Standard rotation of Fall 2011. Prices really took off once Delver decks started asserting themselves in Winter months of that year. The subsequent highs typically came at different times in the following year, after the release of Dark Ascension but before the release of Avacyn Restored. In the table below you can see that most of the fastlands were very profitable.

Card	Low	High	% Change
Blackcleave Cliffs	$0.5	$3.0	500%
Copperline Gorge	$0.3	$2.8	817%
Darkslick Shores	$0.6	$8.0	1233%
Razorverge Thicket	$0.2	$1.8	775%
Seachrome Coast	$0.5	$8.8	1650%
Index	$0.5	$4.0	700%

These types of returns are unlikely with the shocklands this year, but this is a guide to what is possible for under-appreciated dual lands. For a more realistic sense of the gains that might be seen on shocklands, let's look to a more recent example.

Innistrad

The duals lands from Innistrad (ISD) follow much the same pattern as the lands from SoM. There's a price bottom in and around the last release event during which they were opened widely, followed by a relatively flat period leading up the Summer release of the Core Set. At that point prices start rising as supply from drafters dwindle and players start looking out to Fall Standard.

In the table below, the highs and lows are presented for each of the Innistrad duals. It's quite possible that these cards will make new highs in the coming months, but generally they have been profitable speculative positions for those that were accumulating the cards in the first half of 2012. These returns are less dramatic than the SoM duals, but probably closer to what we'll see with shocklands.

Card	Low	High	% Change
Clifftop Retreat	$0.7	$3.3	364%
Hinterland Harbor	$1	$3.4	240%
Isolated Chapel	$1.6	$3.0	88%
Sulfur Falls	$1.3	$3.2	146%
Woodland Cemetery	$1.1	$3.5	218%
Index	$1.3	$3.0	131%

The Shocklands

Let's apply the index change from the ISD duals to the recent lows of each of the shocklands to yield a projected increase. The Projected Price column in the next table is calculated using the Low price and applying a simple increase of 131%, the increase observed from the ISD dual land index. The Projected Gains columns are calculated by first taking a 15% cut from the Projected Price (to represent bot margins) and then subtracting either the Low price or the Current Price for the respective Gains column.

Current Prices in tix are taken from supernovabots on January 10th, 2013, and the Low is taken from historical supernovabots data, most of which comes from December of 2012.

Card	Low	Current Price	Projected Price	Projected Gains from Low	Projected Gains from Current Price
Blood Crypt	$2.5	$3.4	$5.8	$2.4	$1.5
Hallowed Fountain	$3	$3.1	$6.9	$2.9	$2.8
Overgrown Tomb	$2.8	$3.3	$6.5	$2.7	$2.2
Steam Vents	$2.5	$3.2	$5.8	$2.4	$1.7
Temple Garden	$3	$3.3	$6.9	$2.9	$2.6
Index	$3	$3.3	$6.9	$2.9	$2.6

The Trouble with Projections

Keep in mind these are projections and individual price peaks on the shocklands will vary. At all points I have used conservative estimates in order to avoid potential disappointment down the road. As a whole, shocklands have more utility in more formats than the ISD duals, so the projected increase of 131% is probably a low estimate. Gains of 150% or higher is probably more realistic, but the fact that the shocklands are reprints muddies the water somewhat.

From a historical perspective, Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents are two of the more valuable and played shocklands online, and the relatively low availability of their earlier printings suggest that higher price targets are possible. Similarly for Overgrown Tomb and Temple Garden, the greater availability of the earlier printings of these cards suggest to revise expectations on these cards downward. Blood Crypt falls in the middle somewhere in terms of historical playability and relative scarcity of its earlier printing.

Hopefully this analysis will make you confident in what is possible when speculating on in-print dual lands. You can expect another dip in price in these cards when Dragon's Maze is released, but how large the dip will be is unclear as there is no historical precedent for this year's novel block structure. If you've been on the fence about picking up some RtR cards, it's not too late to grab a few shocklands for some small, low-risk gains over the next twelve months.

Insider: Uncommon Ground – the Foundation of MtG Speculation

Posted on January 11, 2013January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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Before I detail some actionable MtG speculation targets this week, I'd like to share some thoughts on building a speculation portfolio. As the title suggests, uncommon magic cards can make a great foundation for a speculation portfolio. It is generally much easier to acquire a large position on the cheap when buying into an uncommon card and returns often triple the initial investment costs. That move represents moving from twenty-five cents to a dollar, but returns aside maintaining a healthy inventory of in demand uncommons will help bridge the value gap in difficult trades.

Being the person with uncommons is great, as players will seek you out before they think to trade rares with others. This provides you with the chance to trade up into value or sideways into other speculation targets that happen to be stamped gold. Trading uncommons is also a way to ease new magic players into magic trading. Let them compete playsets and finish decklists while you slowly accumulate value and a good reputaion.

Now on to the targets:

Illusionist's Bracers is a unique piece of equipment that is begging to be abused. Any untap effects can easily get things into the infinite. Generally, it's good advice to avoid pre-orders on cards. The window for profit can be very small and pre-orders carry the risk of getting to you too late. That said the Bracers look tempting at $1 and Ebay has some pricing just a hair under that target.

With Prime Speaker Zegana spoiled it looks like Master of the Pearl Trident could finally see Standard play. Augur of Bolas and Talrand help round out a deck that could make use of Simic Fluxmage's ability to great effect. Master of the Pearl trident is a very good trade target and completed Ebay auctions suggest TCG low pricing to be too cheap at around $1.50. While I don't yet see a winning Standard Merfolk deck, that doesn't mean players aren't going to try with the limited tools they have availible. The Master has the benefit of seeing play in Merfolk decks across formats and represents a fairly conservative investment.

Mechanic Play

Boros battalion is a great feature for today's first strikers and/or hasted creatures. While Firemane Avenger still represents my favorite battalion effect, the recently spoiled Frontline Medic could serve a crucial role in future Boros' decklists. Unfortunately, pre-sale prices are insane for this 3cc drop. Restricting Boros speculation to cheaper, already available cheap and efficient W/R creatures makes the most sense. Also, Slayers' Stronghold offers a cheap way to ride any future Boros success in Standard. Giving things haste to enable battalion makes sense. Even if the mana cost is a bit prohibitive, the paper costs aren't. Interestingly, Ebay has Stronghold pricing all over the place with several auctions selling at $1 per.

Penny pick for the week:

Trepanation Blade looks like a big winner in light of the new Dimir Guildmage. While Jace, Memory Adept has quickly gone up in price in anticipation of future mill strategies, the Blade is still available for less than five cents from multiple vendors. Turning sideways to deal damage before blocks are declared looks very promising. The mill component has an added benefit of playing nice with both the Havengul Lich and Lazav, Dimir Mastermind. The Lich is an interesting speculation target that I've written about before, while Lazav is presently selling on Ebay from thirty to forty dollars a playset. Prices like that are too high, even for a mythic from a small set. Should he slip to the four dollar range, I'll be looking to pick copies up. Lazav equipped with the Trepanation Blade has the ability to morph before blocks are declared making swings a dangerous proposition for your opponent before combat damage is applied (again with a Duskmantle activation).

More Uncommon Ground

Speaking of, have you seen Duskmantle Guildmage? If not, take the time to click the links above. Duskmantle likely gets Mindcrank banned in modern. Two piece combo with built in protection versus removal with the Crank in play (removal hits graveyard to trigger damage cycle). Picking up the Guildmage for $0.25 a pop is now a difficult proposition but a playset can still be yours for less than $1.50. This card is more versatile than Blood Artist and should easily push $1. Mindcrank is a great card to pick up as a throw in. Trading away an Oblivion Ring for three or more looks like a safe play on the second part of THE modern combo deck.

Insider: Looking Back at Chad’s Set Review

Posted on January 10, 2013January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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It’s that time of the year again! The time for… grading our picks!

For those who maybe don’t know what I’m talking about, I write a “prerelease primer” for every set. In these I talk about the cards I see as relevant and make my predictions as to where the prices will end up.

This season I’m putting a bit of a twist of things. Instead of reviewing my own picks, Chad is reviewing my set review and I’m reviewing his.

There are a few reasons for this. To start, let me get on my miniature soapbox for a minute.

When I first started writing, it really was the Wild West of MTG finance writing. There were a lot of people getting into the game, and there was basically zero accountability. I saw numerous articles in which writers would claim, “I told you to buy XX, look how good at this I am!” without listing any of their buy recommendations that didn’t pan out.

That’s why I first started the set review, and to my knowledge I was the first to do so. I think it was a big step as far as accountability was concerned, but any self-analysis falls prey to the issues of self-bias.

And that’s why we’re changing it up this time around. Let me know what you think of this approach.

The Calls

With that said, let’s dive in! I’m pulling info for the calls from Chad’s articles in September and early October.

Chromatic Lantern

Chad Havas:

This is the card I’m most excited about thus far. This is an extremely awesome piece of artifact ramp and fixing all in one, and I expect it to see some significant play in both Commander and Standard. I wouldn’t be surprised if it made cameos in older formats like Modern too. Joiner Adept's ability on an artifact is much more resilient than a 2/1 creature and the Lantern itself taps for mana. This will be the cornerstone of any 3+ color control deck, which by the looks of the cards spoiled thus far, is not out of the question at all.

Allowing control decks to jam a large number of multi-colored spells, including charms, into their deck will give them a wide variety of cheap answer cards [and] granting the ability to finish the game with the most powerful card they can find is no joke. The fact that every 3+ color Commander deck will want a copy of this is another huge factor. This card is pre-ordering at $5 on StarCityGames.com and I think that’s a steal. I’d like to see this card hit $10 fairly quickly after it releases.

Lantern is now sitting at $3.50 on SCG. To my knowledge, it never went higher than $6-7 on SCG, so this was a bit of a miss in that regard. I do think Chad is right in that this is a great pickup, especially at the price it currently sits at. I’m a bit surprised control decks aren’t jamming it yet, but that may change as the rest of the guilds release and there’s more incentive to stretch the mana. And there’s always that Commander value.

Jace, Architect of Thought

Chad Havas:

“Meh,” was my first thought when I read this spoiler. I’ve forced myself to try and be a bit more open minded about this card, but I’m still not sure I like him. His first ability may be relevant if a token deck exists, but with cards like Intangible Virtue in the format, they can counteract his ability fairly easily. His 2nd ability is undoubtedly insane, but paying four mana to use it once is not exactly value. A deck that likes this Jace would also likely play Tamiyo. In connection, they do stuff, kind of. Jace requires that they attack with all their creatures for less damage, while Tamiyo can tap their largest creature or draw cards from all their attackers. Tamiyo is really the strong card in this combo, but if a heavy blue control deck exists it may play some number of this Jace, but I don’t expect it to stabilize much more than $12.

Now: $18 on SCG. While I was much higher on Jace than Chad was, his analysis is fairly solid. He certainly nailed the fact that Jace plays well with [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card], which saw a spike a few weeks after release.

Of course, Jace also saw a spike to $40 or so before coming back to Earth. Chad undershot the target on Jace a bit here, but in this day and age coming within $6 on a planeswalker named Jace is not bad at all.

Abrupt Decay

Chad Havas:

Abrupt Decay is a card that is getting a lot of attention, and deservedly so. Unfortunately, its pre-order price of $15 is a bit prohibitive to make a move. This price is pretty spot on, in my opinion. It’s such a cheap spell with a powerful, uncounterable effect. It will see play in older formats as well. Maelstrom Pulse, the closest thing we’ve seen to this card in Standard for quite some time hit as high as $17 during its Standard tenure, and I expect we’re looking at something quite similar, despite the additional demand from older formats. When this card was pre-ordering around $10 I liked it, but at $15 there’s too much risk with far too little reward.

Now: $7 on SCG. I’ll also note that Chad updated his price point to $12 a few weeks later. I’m pretty sure I also predicted this card to be worth more than it is. While it hasn’t been an all-star in Standard, the card is making solid appearances in Modern as a part of Jund and has found a home in Legacy as well. Still, discouraging people from buying in at $15 was the right call, even as some financial-minded people I know were suggesting getting in at that price.

Still, as it stands today Chad overshot the target here, since much of Abrupt Decay’s cost was based on the GB Zombies deck that didn’t stick around for very long. This is the biggest miss in this list, but it’s certainly one I understand, as I made the same mistake myself. I do think it's a fine trade target at its current price, for what it’s worth.

Cyclonic Rift

Chad Havas:

Speaking of cards that I’m personally excited about, Cyclonic Rift. This card is my kind of card. It’s clearly meant for the control player, and has unrestrictive color requirements. We could slot this into a 4-5 color control deck as a haymaker. While it’s preorder price of $4 is likely too high, it’s a card that will be on my radar in trades as prices start stabilizing. Most control decks wont play more than one or two of this card, and it’s unlikely to see play in older formats with the exception of Commander, where it will be amazing. Overload is a great mechanic for multiplayer as it scales well for large games without an additional cost.

Now: $2.50 on SCG. Chad called this one perfectly. Everything he said about the card is true, and he correctly called the $4 preorder price as too high.

Shocklands

Chad Havas:

Shocklands have shot up in pre-order pricing. Initially sitting at $10, some have risen to $15. This is insanity in my opinion. $10 should be the ceiling for these on a whole, while there may be one particular shockland that sits just above once we know what the format looks like. Being a second printing, there are a ton of these around. They also aren’t hidden in boxes, they are out and around in trade binders and fairly easy to find.

Perfect call here. A couple of shocks are sitting at $12 on SCG, while the rest are $10. I believe most everyone on this site who weighed in came to about the same conclusion on the price of the lands, which is a good sign, and it looks like we were right.

With that said, now is the time to start picking these back up. Prices can go a little lower, but not too much. And remember the fetchland lesson – cards don’t always go down when they rotate from Standard. Getting in on shocks cheap is going to pay off a few years down the road.

Other cards

That’s it for the Return to Ravnica stuff, but I want to point out a few other solid calls Chad made. He suggested picking up Stromkirk Noble at $2 (now $4), Tamiyo at $15 (now $25), he predicted [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] to go down (it did) and Innistrad lands to go up (and we all know they did).

All in all, I have to give Chad pretty high marks for this spoiler season. While he missed entirely on Deathrite Shaman, most of us did. That happens from time to time, and while predicting cards to go up is important, it’s just as important to note which cards not to buy into, which Chad did well last season.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Auras and Car Wrecks

Posted on January 10, 2013January 10, 2013 by Mike Lanigan

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It’s 6:50 am and I’m sitting at a stop light on my way to work. Friends were over last night until 1 am hanging out; needless to say, I’m exhausted and regretting that decision. This light seems to stay red for much longer than expected, and my patience is already at an all-time low since I'm driving to work. A song by I See Stars starts playing from the mix on my Ipod, which automatically puts me in a better mood because they are by far my favorite band right now. (They are revolutionizing a new genre called Electronicore and they are amazing if you like that type of music.)

The light finally turns green and I accelerate a little faster than I probably should have. Then all of a sudden a huge black SUV surges past me. In my sleepy haze, I slam on my breaks with just enough time to stop before I drive through the rear passenger door. The driver never slows down to apologize or check to make sure the car is intact, they just kept on speeding down the road. At this point, I am yelling in my car for a moment until I calm down and realize that I indeed did not hit the law-breaking vehicle. Luckily I had ten more minutes on my drive to work to calm down before I had to enter the building.

In this situation it would not have mattered what car I was driving or what the other guy was driving. A law was broken which should have caused an accident. Even if I was driving my dream car (I’m particular to the Jaguar), it would not have helped me in any way.

Car Wrecks in Standard

Standard right now is this car wreck waiting to happen. Many players and other writers have stated that this is the best, most open Standard format we have ever had. I only agree with one of those statements. There are some of us out there that absolutely hate Standard right now. Yes, I know that there are more playable cards in Standard right now than in any previous format in the Modern era. Normally that would be a great thing, but for me, it’s not enough.

Standard seems like an extremely unskilled format, decided more by the number of lands you draw over the course of a game than any other factor. There are aspects of the format that are skill intensive, like the Rakdos mirror. Many of those games can be won or lost based on your skill and your decisions. Certainly there are other matchups determined by skill but overall I don’t believe it to be the case.

To make matters worse, there are no decks I enjoy playing right now. If Rakdos was not so popular, it is the type of deck I like, but playing against Bant is like punching your way through the door instead of opening it. If you don’t believe me, check out the Gerry vs. Brad video on Star City this week. Game one is supposed to be heavily in favor of Rakdos, but Brad loses ever single game one in the video.

Number one on my list of problems with Standard is the extreme length of games. Making more cards playable should not dictate that games take thirty minutes. Think about the last big event you went to. Every single round most likely went over time because of decks like Bant Control not being able to finish a game quickly. When you staple lifegain to already solid cards you end up with Thragtusk and Sphinx's Revelation and that will force games to start going longer.

These are the reasons why, despite not having plans and there being a Star City Open two hours from my house, I did not make the drive out there.

Porting G/W Auras to Standard

Despite this car wreck Standard, I still almost went to the event. I have been working on a deck that is a lot of fun but I could not solve the sideboarding issue for the control decks. My angle for creating this deck was to ignore the rest of what everyone was doing in Standard. I don’t like what they are doing so why should I play into their strategy. This deck is a bit risky though. Inspiration came to me while I was dissecting the new GW Aura deck for Modern.

Auras are not playable. That has been the common logic for as long as I have been playing. We are starting to see that there are exceptions to that rule. In Return to Ravnica Limited, for example, auras are actually quite good because of the lack of cheap removal in the format. The Modern deck shows us that if you can kill your opponent fast enough that it doesn’t matter what type of spells you are using.

The card that stuck out in my mind from the Modern deck was Ethereal Armor. For one mana, the impact it can have is quite large. You most likely need to be playing some other enchantments for it to be good enough. Armor is another card that is normally not playable in Constructed, but since that rule really doesn’t apply right now, I found myself pondering its use in Standard. My logic expanded from this one card to the following deck.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Invisible Stalker

4 Geist of Saint Traft

3 Snapcaster Mage

3 Restoration Angel

Spells

4 Unsummon

4 Azorius Charm

2 Amass the Components

Enchantments

4 Ethereal Armor

3 Curiosity

2 Detention Sphere

2 Oblivion Ring

1 Nevermore

Lands

1 Moorland Haunt

4 Hallowed Fountain

4 Glacial Fortress

3 Cavern of Souls

6 Island

5 Plains

Sideboard

2 Nevermore

4 Rest in Peace

2 Negate

1 Rootborn Defenses

3 Sphere of Safety

3 Curse of Echoes

At first glance, this should look like a normal U/W Flash deck. Many of the cards are format staples that have been proven many times over in various format. That is always a great place to start. Changing half of a deck can drastically change how it plays but maintain the raw power of the previous version. When I am working on a format, this is one of the prime strategies I use to develop my decks.

Similarities exist between Ethereal Armor and Runechanter's Pike. In the current format, I think the auras are better than the equipment for one reason, their cheaper cost. With Pike, you are hoping for the equipment to win you the game eventually, after setting it up with Thought Scour and playing your spells noramlly. The enchantments are not the same. They aim to kill the opponent as quickly as possible and do not require that first step of filling your graveyard. Your creature’s power won’t shrink because your opponent sideboarded their graveyard hate either, which is a plus.

Common Lines of Play

Instead of talking about each card individually, I think it would be more beneficial to talk about some general scenarios that occur frequently.

Versus Aggro

When your opponent also has many creatures in their deck, your goal is to race them. Use your life total as a resource. There are a couple main ways to go about this.

Scenario 1: You have Invisible Stalker, Ethereal Armor and Curiosity in your opening hand. You should be able to bounce creatures to their hand and/or top of their library while playing more auras to make Stalker kill quickly. Three damage a turn, even unblockable, is not good enough on its own. What makes it get there is the extra card every turn, which will give you the resources to continue to interact with your opponent.

Scenario 2: Geist of Saint Traft is in hand but not Invisible Stalker. This is also the same if you have both creatures but no auras. When this happens your most likely route to victory is to play a bounce spell at the end of your opponent’s turn two and then try to force Geist through three times. With the tempo removal in the deck plus Snapcaster Mage, this is usually fairly easy. In these games, often I don’t find time to ever cast Invisible Stalker except as a chump blocker. Suiting up Geist with Armor is close to unbeatable for most aggro decks unless they are faster than you and you can't control them at all. The power bonus on Armor even turns Thragtusk into two chumps, which is amazing.

Scenario 3: You have great spells in hand but your only creature(s) are Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel or both. In this case, you want to play the game more like a straight up U/W Flash deck, which can be difficult. Sometimes it works, but any small error can spell your end. This plan works best when you draw your removal enchantments and then finish them off with a large Ethereal Armor. Even if you have to play auras on a creature without hexproof, many times your opponent won’t have removal for them. Try not to play that way if you can avoid it but remember multiple Armors add up to a ton of damage.

**In all three scenarios against another aggressive deck, using the lifelink option on your charms will win you many games as well. Don’t forget about that part of the card just because it doesn’t come up that often.

Versus U/W Control

When you are playing against a deck built for the long game, you need to change how you evaluate your spells. Your Unsummons become spells that save your creatures from removal rather than a way to gain tempo. Azorius Charm tends to be a cantrip the majority of the time and then a second time as well when you flash it back with Snapcaster. The scenarios are basically the same for these matches, but how you play your cards is vastly different. Unless you can present lethal even through a Sphinx's Revelation, do not over-commit to the board. One creature with an enchantment or two is enough pressure to force your opponent to respond. Losing two or more creatures to Supreme Verdict may cost you the game so be cautious.

Versus Nonblue Midrange or Control (Jund, Naya & Reanimator)

If your opponent doesn’t have Supreme Verdict, you can pressure them with more creatures. Don’t sacrifice your Geist hastily to their bigger blocker. Dig for a way to remove the blocker or find a second Geist. This way you will maximize damage and have a creature to enchant when you eventually draw your auras. The only way they have to interact with you is usually [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] so save those Unsummons to get around that card.

Sideboarding

Sphere of Safety - Against aggressive decks my strategy has been to bring in Sphere of Safety. Sometimes it is not fast enough, especially against Monored, but if you have enough time to cast it, games become much easier after that. The part I like best about Sphere is that it negates the power of the haste creatures in Standard. That slows players down quite a bit.

Curse of Echoes – This was the solution to Bant that I didn’t find until too late. Resolving it is not easy, but once it’s in play, they have a hard time winning. Anything they cast, you get a copy of, so none of their counters work and when they draw cards, so do you. A neat interaction is with Supreme Verdict. Since it gets played twice, there is no token left from Thragtusk.

Nevermore – Most of the time you want to name Thragtusk so you can kill them quickly. When your opponent doesn’t have Thragtusk though, this card is more effective. Because you have Unsummon and Azorius Charm, you can wait until your opponent casts Hellrider for example, and after bouncinig it cast Nevermore. By doing it this way, you will always leave them with a card in hand that they cannot cast. This enchantment is also a catch-all. If you run across something you didn’t expect, you can always bring this in to beat it.

Negate – This instant has a variety of uses. It obviously comes in most of the time against any control deck like Bant or Jund, but it does have other applications as well. Some decks have enough spells to make it worth bringing in. Naya, for example, sometimes has enough spells like Bonfire to justify one or both post-board.

In conclusion, remember that even when your format is a car wreck, you can still find something fun to play. If I had decided to attend the Star City Open, I was certainly confidant enough in this deck to run it.

Until Next Time,

Never Give Up, Never Surrender!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Looking Back at Corbin’s Set Review

Posted on January 10, 2013January 17, 2022 by Chad Havas

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Quiet Spec’s own Corbin Hosler contacted me last week with an amazing idea that I hope we continue to do from season to season. Taking each other’s Pre-release predictions and giving them a post-hoc review. I’m anxious to see what Corbin says about mine, I made some great calls during those periods, however my most successful ones weren’t actually from the new set. It’s always interesting to try and remember what we thought of things without all the context of how formats have changed since then. We can objectively look at our speculations and judge our performance. This helps us identify problems and improve.

Corbin had a consolidated set review for RTR, Linked here.

Looking at the Evidence

I’m going to go over each call he made and talk about it’s life cycle from then to now.

Shocklands- Corbin pretty much nailed these on the head, stating buying in at $10 wasn’t a profitable longterm move. What he and I both missed on these, is that many of them did spike up for a bit in the first weeks of the format. There may have been an opportunity for a quick flip, but if you ended up unable to move them in time you’d be stuck with a loss by now. Corbin hit the bulls-eye on this one.

Angel of Serenity- His article went up after the craze shot pre-order pricing up to $15, where Corbin said it’d bounce between $10-20, and as such wasn’t suggesting a buy. He was pretty dead on, but left a wide window. And the card has followed the path he described. I took this same logic in a recent article, now that the Angel has fallen to $12 as a good pick up for the upswing.

Martial Law- A bulk rare spec that he wanted to keep his eye on. While not yet reccomending a buy, he identified a card worth a glance. While Martial Law is still a bulk-rare, these sorts of things are very low risk. Especially given his advice was to watch it closely. Corbin isolated an interesting card, but didn’t so much as go all in too early.

Rest in Peace- Corbin said the pre-order price on this card at $4 was fair, and would likely sit around that price for some time. I felt the same way at the time, but this card has fallen well below $1. Thus far, the biggest miss, but his logic was reasonable, and I arrived and a similar conclusion myself.

Jace, Architect of Thought- “Not the right time to buy” and he was right. It’s come down a handful of dollars since then, even more than he predicted. This being said, this could be a good target for speculation going forward now that it’s come down quite a bit.

Desecration Demon- He expected it to hover around its pre-order price of $4, yet it’s fallen to less than half that price. He did however correctly identify that it wasn’t a good target. Knowing how bad a bad target is, is not nearly as important as knowing how good a good target will be. Incorrectly predicting the floor on a card you think is overpriced doesn’t end up costing you money, and is just a learning opportunity. While overpredicting a card’s ceiling is the dangerous one that can actually cost you money.

Pack Rat- He liked it as a long-term call as a casual favorite, to get in at $1. It hasn’t moved much yet, so only time will tell how accurate that prediction was. I don’t expect it to change too much in future years, but it will likely hold its existing value at least for the reasonably near term.

Ash Zealot- Like me, Corbin expected RDW to get some hype in Standard, but the closest we got was Rakdos. Zealot is still $3. Corbin didn’t pick a specific price point for it, but did compare it to how Stromkirk Noble hit $10 the previous year. It just wasn’t the right time for Ash Zealot.

Armada Wurm- Corbin was not excited about this card at $15, and right he was. This card is now about $6 and doesn’t see much play. His assessment that it won't see play in many decks was right on and he nailed this on on the button.

Collective Blessing- Its another rare he didn’t set a price point on but said he wanted to watch. It still sits just above bulk level, and it sees some fringe play in Standard. If that fringe play starts to pick up, being prepared to buy in is a good move.

Detention Sphere- He did not suggest a buy here, and said the card would fall to $5-7. It did, and then it kept falling to about $3-4 range. Overall, Corbin suggested staying away from this card, and he was right.

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius- Corbin says this guy is a good buy at $10 as he could shoot up to $15. Unfortunately for everyone’s favorite dragon, he hasn’t seen any competetive play, and can now be found for around $3. Corbin’s reasoning was sound here, but the format just didn’t cooperate with him.

Chromatic Lantern- Good to know I wasn’t the only one who thought this card was a good buy. I’m still not conviced it isn’t going forward, but thus far has borne no fruits. Corbin said it would have a $4-6 price tag, and it unfortunately is just under that range.

Judgment

On the whole, Corbin was fairly accurate, and his misses were mostly on cards he didn’t suggest investing in, so his end-result advice was accurate. Overall, out of all the cards here, he did a pretty good job assessing the format and predicting where things would fall. This was a great exercise and I look forward to doing it again next season.

Insider: How to Be a Value Trader – Not a Shark

Posted on January 9, 2013January 17, 2022 by Jared Elick

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I have seen a lot of discussion on this in the forums. What do you do when a kid walks in with a $40 Legacy staple, wanting your Standard junk rare?

I had this happen to me. And I chose his foil Iona, Shield of Emeria over my own Myojin of Night's Reach.

This was the wrong thing to do, even if it felt right at the time. I will do my best to explain why this isn’t even good for anyone.

The Trade May Not Be Worth It

The first possibility is that he tells someone about the trade. If this happened at an LGS, chances are other people know you there, and you can get anything from dirty looks to a store ban. No one thinks that you saw this as a fair trade, and losing access to an LGS is not worth $39.50 profit.

Traders may also have a very negative cultural stigma, people viewing us as scam artists. Traders walking up to a binder are seen by some in the same manner as short change artists to the checkout lane. If you scam people, it helps add to that, and more people will dislike us for it.

You May Have Lost a Player

That kid may have been trying to get into competitive play, and that foil Iona, Shield of Emeria may have gotten him 2 Thragtusk or a playset of Silverblade Paladins. He may have won his first game with those cards.

Honestly, the binder without Iona was probably worth $5 on buylists. He may never get into playing, and he won’t bring his friends with him. you're better off offering him some Standard rares worth $40 and so that he can build that deck. You still be doing very well trading a foil Iona for Standard cards.

So, What Rules Should We Follow?

Well, it can be very situational for sure, but we can follow a few rules to make sure that we are being honest with our trades all of the time, even when making a profit.

Always offer more if the trade is uneven. A great way of doing this without hurting yourself is making the suggestion yourself: “This Deadbridge Goliath is a dollar, and it goes great with Silverblade Paladin.”
Some cards are just worth more. But make sure your trade partner understand that beforehand. “If you want a Tropical Island, I have to trade it at 140% if I’m getting Standard cards, because it is much rarer.” Of course, you can also buylist trade a Tropical Island, as long as the other person understands why and agrees on pricing. Trader Tools can help a lot with this.
If you see someone scamming kids for their cards, cheating in a game or just being generally terrible to everyone at an LGS, feel free to attempt to take them for anything they’ve got. It is true that what goes around, comes around. Also, if someone is sharking binders, they should know enough to not get sharked themselves.

Put Yourself In Their Shoes – Even When They Don’t Fit

Would you be happy with this trade if you were them? Knowing the worth of the cards, you should say yes every time.

This can't always be true, however. Some people don’t think like we do. I traded a Silverblade Paladin and a Redirect for a Thragtusk last week. I quoted prices and asked him to grab more. He said, “Those are the only cards I need for my deck. I don’t mind losing the difference.”

Some people just want to play with the cards and don’t care what they get them for. They don’t see the cards as cash value. They don’t see a $5 Mythic, they see Nicol Bolas, the most badass Planeswalker out there.

Don’t take advantage, but it’s okay to make a profit if you’re honest about it.

Don’t Kill The Game

Taking every bit of value from people at an LGS can make you some money. But if we all take that approach, as opposed to buy/sell list arbitrage and wise investments, we will damage the game as a whole. Our income from this game relies on community, and that community needs to keep growing or we will all lose money.

So do us all a favor and, while you pick up every Daybreak Coronet and Shardless Agent in your LGS, make sure you make awesome trades, both for you and them. We are all depending on you.

No Fair

Posted on January 9, 2013January 8, 2013 by Ryan Overturf

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What do you think when you see what is more or less a Modern deck taking up two slots in the top 8 of a Legacy Grand Prix? I imagine that answers to this vary greatly.

Fans of The Rock everywhere probably pumped their fists seeing Jund do so well at GP Denver. As for myself, I’m more puzzled than anything. All I can think when I look over Pat Cox and Josh Ravitz’s decklists is that something has gone horribly wrong.

During coverage of some SCG Open or another Mike Flores stated that a player leading on Scalding Tarn opens up millions (or was it billions?) of different universes. And here we see players deciding to battle with coin flip decks. That is, we see players deciding to battle with coin flip decks to a high degree of success.

How Did We Get Here?

It appears to me that the initial reactions to Deathrite Shaman and Abrupt Decay have been dramatically overblown. This is not to say that BUG is a bad deck, and it’s certainly not to say that these cards don’t have their place in Legacy, but it is to say that they are currently overplayed.

The rationale behind the Jund deck and behind Matt Nass’s Elves! deck from the top 8 was that the pilots all wanted to find a way to beat the other fair decks. This is the sort of inbred mentality that brought us to Lingering Souls Jund in Modern, and in Modern I believe that this line of thought will lead a player to better and better decks.

But this is Legacy we’re talking about.

It seems strange to me that so many players are focusing on cracking fair mirrors when the ability to just do unfair things is at a premium.

Do you know what happens when you cast Show and Tell against Elves? You win.

When you cast it against Jund? They get a Dark Confidant, and then you win.

Now, I’m not going to pretend that I’m going to stop playing RUG at literally every event ever, but this is in no small part due to the fact that I believe I can play that deck much better than any other. From the sense of strictly analyzing the metagame to determine a deck choice this is prime time for combo decks.

Most of the top 8 decks that even had Force of Will had trimmed down to three copies and all of the decks in the top 8 has a considerable focus on beating creatures. This sort of narrow-thinking metagamed approach to Legacy is exactly what leads to weeks when combo decks completely dominate.

If I had to settle on a particular combo deck I’d easily go with Omnitell. I would play something close to the list that local legend/heartthrob Troy Thompson top 16’d the L.A. Invitational with:

Troy Thompson is Omniscient

spells

2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

2 Griselbrand

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Lotus Petal

4 Omniscience

4 Brainstorm

3 Daze

4 Force of Will

1 Intuition

4 Burning Wish

4 Ponder

4 Preordain

3 Show and Tell

3 Thoughtseize

lands

2 Island

3 Ancient Tomb

1 City of Traitors

2 Flooded Strand

2 Polluted Delta

3 Scalding Tarn

2 Underground Sea

3 Volcanic Island

sideboard

1 Defense Grid

2 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Pithing Needle

3 Pyroblast

1 Grapeshot

1 Petals of Insight

1 Pyroclasm

1 Shattering Spree

1 Show and Tell

1 Thoughtseize

1 Time of Need

1 Virtue's Ruin

Now, one might think that the discard spells available to these fair decks allows them to have a reasonable matchup against such combo decks. Real talk- they’re kind of crappy. This deck has a dozen cantrips and four of them are Brainstorm. This coupled with the fact that the Omnitell player can just counter the discard spell if it actually matters or alternatively just go on a Jace plan makes life really miserable for the fair player.

Troy had some very interesting stories from the Invitational that I think bear repeating. Let’s take a look at some of them.

Me: How did your round go, Troy?
Troy: I killed him turn two and then I killed him turn three.

And then there’s this gem:

Me: Did you get it?
Troy: Yeah, my opponent did stuff and then I killed him.

I’m not about to say that Troy’s list is perfect. I’m not huge on the Lotus Petals and I would like to see three copies of more cards in order to Intuition for them (think Griselbrand and Jace), but the strategy of Omnitell is extremely powerful and well-positioned currently.

So What, Ryan?

I realize that I’m being a bit short in terms of actual strategic analysis, but it shouldn’t take too many games experience to see that discard just isn’t going to cut it against a competent Show and Tell pilot. When you have one player playing Thoughtseize to make sure that the coast is clear to cast a Tarmogoyf and the other playing Thoughtseize to guarantee that you lose this turn it’s plain to see that the player that kills faster benefits substantially more from their discard spells.

As Owen Turtenwald once so eloquently put it, Duress doesn’t have protection from bullshit. Discard becomes dramatically less good the more turns the player targeted gets to draw out of their predicament if the discard even fettered them much in the first place.

When it comes to preparing for Standard tournaments, teching out your build for prevalent matchups is an invaluable skill. When it comes to Legacy it is much more important to realize when the line has been crossed and the format is more inbred than the card pool justifies. When people are getting too cute trying to win the mirror then it’s high time somebody reminded them about the other decks. The ones that allow players to kill you now and maybe ask how you sideboarded while they’re having their hourly cigarette break.

Do you want to be the player that spends their day flashing cards and saying “one more turn and…” or the player who disregards whatever you’re trying to say as they walk away with the match slip? I should think the choice is clear.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Jason’s Archives: Playing to Your Outs

Posted on January 8, 2013January 8, 2013 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Every once in a while, the Medina school and the Bushard school debate the merits of their respective positions. This week, Medina himself referred to the Bushard school as "hamsters on wheels" (paraphrasing) albeit in good fun. Even though I'm on record as adopting a hybrid approach I find myself defending the Bushard school of finance every time something like this happens.

To recap, the Bushard school of finance involves speculating on cards you think will go up, going deep on them, breaking even as soon as possible and recouping a large profit whenever you pick correctly. The Medina school of finance involves buying cards for less than an already-established sell price to guarantee you always make money. If the price of a card goes up, just pay more for it, then sell it for even more than that.

In my defense of the Bushard school, I always like to point out to Jon that not everyone is able to buy at buylist like he is or sell at retail. I usually accomplish this with a technique I learned in Dale Carnegie's seminal "How to Win Friends and Influence People," which I like to call "Extreme Sarcasm."

Sarcasm: Because sometimes dramatic irony is too subtle and bludgeoning is too obtuse.

The point is, unless you have a website like Jon does, you might think you can't become a student of the Medina school. However, it's not as impossible as you think. If you want to adopt a hybrid system or go "full Medina," one way to think about it is in terms of playing to your outs.

Considering Your Outs

I think Bayou is about to blow up. Despite a lot of people going all pee-pants in response to SCG's organized play update, I think Legacy will be around forever and the new BUG decks are too good to ignore. Underground Sea and Tropical Island are over $100 already, but when BUG started spanking people Bayou was sitting around $60. It was even cheaper before Nic Fit made a big splash. I found someone online selling Bayous for around $60, which seemed like a good deal considering Bayou sold out on SCG for $90 this week.

I decided not to pull the trigger. The reason was simple. Speculating on dual lands is just bad business. Even if Bayou hits $120, $60 is close to the buylist price. If I wanted to sell around the hypothetical $120 it might reach, I could sell it on eBay. But I don't like to sell anything over $50 on eBay, with a few exceptions. I'd rather crunch stuff like that down into a pile of value and sell that instead.

So if you aren't inclined to eBay a Bayou, you won't make much cash from a buylist and you don't have a ton of time to value trade with it, don't buy it. Spend your $240 elsewhere.

On the other hand, let's say your primary out is to value trade the Bayou and buylist what you get for it. In this case a $60 Bayou, which you can point out is sold out on SCG for $90 before starting the trade, is pretty appealing. Buylisting the Bayou directly is gross, but if trading it out is how you roll it looks like a much better deal. The difference between those two attitudes toward an underpriced dual is a difference in outs.

Ins Matter Too

People love to sell cards, and cash is king. Going somewhere where players congregate with a stack of cash is a great way to pick up cards for cheap. Most people would rather have money than a binder full of cards that have already rotated, are difficult to trade and will never be missed. If your LGS doesn't approve of sales in the store, there are plenty of places to meet people with cards, my favorite of which is local universities and community colleges.

Since everything will sell on eBay (notice I didn't say any card; anything Magic-related will sell), if you pick up cards for buylist prices and out them for retail on eBay, once fees are subtracted you still make a pretty decent profit.

Another excellent way to get under-priced cards is to buy collections. I recommend downloading the Craigslist mobile app for your smartphone so you can check new listings in your local area frequently. People selling entire collections are less likely than the average person to know all of their prices, more likely to want to sell quickly, and more likely to be talked down to accepting a lower price. Collection buying is also generally a good time.

Depending how old the cards are, there are likely to be some decent foils, as well as commons and uncommons, that the seller had no idea were valuable. Anyone who has ever found a mint foil Daze mixed in with "bulk" blue commons or a stack of Imperious Perfects in the collection of someone who knew the price of every rare in their binder knows what I'm talking about.

The only way to lose money buying a collection like this is by paying too much. How could you pay too much when that is the only variable you can control? Know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em, chief.

Notable Resources for Selling

If you don't want to sell everything to buylists, there are a few other ways to out cards. That way buying cards at buylist makes financial sense.

Card Shark -- Card Shark has pretty steep fees, but you can list a ton of cards very quickly and you make money on every order for shipping.

Magic Traders (MOTL) -- This is not a site I know much about, but lots of people swear by it.

TCG Player -- This site uses the Crystal Commerce engine and it's as easy to list things as on Card Shark. There is a high upfront cost but they sent "exclusive" e-mail invites for individuals to sell there to... everyone. Corbin is experimenting with selling here -- check his articles for updates.

eBay -- If you go deep on eBay it's worth it. The fees hurt, but you get decent value and a lot of seller protection if you pay a bit extra to become an eBay store. As a store, I pay a nickel to list each item and pay less in fees on every transaction. I pay a monthly fee, but it pays itself off quickly. This can quickly become a full-time job, but if you want to make close to retail on the outs, my go-to is eBay.

All of these outs are available for individual people to use, so if you're interested in outing at close to retail, consider these outlets. If you're content to sell to buylists, though, I'm always buying, as are a lot of people.

So next time you're deciding how much to spend on a card you plan to resell, remember to think ahead and play to your outs.

Fights of Columbus

There was an SCG out in Columbus this weekend. I wish I had gone because apparently the trades were non-sane, but I spent the weekend listing a ton on eBay so I feel good about my decision. SCG Opens are a terrible place to sell and coming home with cards but no money didn't appeal to me. Still, most people didn't go to sell or trade (I know, right? Talk about doing it wrong!) but rather to play.

SCG Columbus Top Standard Decks

Kevin Brumley won the event with what looks like a very strong Limited deck. Stonewright, Pyreheart Wolf and Hellion Crucible are not cards one expects to see in a Constructed deck, let alone one that took down an Open. However, these cards have a lot of synergy with the efficient creatures in the deck. Pyreheart Wolf's pseudo-falter effect makes control's few creatures like Centaur Healer or Thragtusk much less effective. Ash Zealot is a card I have been on for quite a while and it might get better since I think Lingering Souls will see even more play once Gatecrash hits. When do you board in Reckless Waif, though? Clearly this guy knows. Congrats, Kevin!

I like the 4-Color Control deck that took second a lot. I showed up before FNM with no deck and Team Dreamcrush lent me some cards to build with. I ended up jamming a ridiculous pile of 4-color good stuff and it got there. When every card you draw is either gas or Farseek, you have a good chance of winning. This deck rectifies the principle problem the pile I cobbled together in 15 minutes had, which was its average mana cost of 11. Utility cards like Selesnya Charm and both Garruks give it a ton of options. I expect to see more decks like this after Gatecrash gives us more charms, better mana and a few more utility cards.

The rest of the top eight looked like fairly established archetypes. I like Naya humans right now, and Boros will only improve the quality of human creatures to choose from. Gruul gives us Stomping Ground, a decent mechanic, and probably one or two decent creatures. (I would love, love LOVE a reprint of Burning Tree Shaman. Makes the other shaman look more like DeathWRONG Shaman, amirite?!).

Naya doesn't need to be all humans to get there, though. There were two other Naya builds in the top eight here. I don't see the addition of Boros and Gruul weakening these decks. I sure hope Orzhov and Dimir contribute some decent removal or control may be in trouble. I expect very little from Simic because I remember what we got last time. I'm just happy they're giving us Breeding Pool.

People like Junk Tokens. It may get better, but I'm not sure if Orzhov's new mechanic will help much. Flashback spells get a bit better, so expect Lingering Souls to go up in value and I'm not just saying that because literally everyone agrees. Get them cheap while you, well, you probably can't anymore. The QS forums have been talking about this card for months, so I hope you listened.

Standard will probably be a bit stale for the next three weeks because everyone is brewing with Gatecrash rather than trying to make the lame duck Standard format new and exciting.

SCG Columbus Top Legacy Decks

Elves? ELVES?! Elves! Yes! I love when a pet deck wins the event, and elves is a really fun deck to not be playing against. Deathrite Shaman gives this deck some additional reach, and may help it approach Tier 1.

Only one BUG deck in the top eight, which may be explained by the fact that the super serious Legacy players likely played the GP in Denver instead. BUG is the new RUG if you ask me.

Speaking of RUG, one managed to top-eight here as well. The deck didn't get worse, but another deck got better and Deathrite Shaman makes all of RUG's enablers for [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card] and [card Nimble Mongoose]Mongoose[/card] a liability. Lots of players have a lot of practice with RUG, though, so expect it to stick around for a while.

Omnishow still manages to top-eight once in a while, but it's not the boogeyman everyone thought for a while. Remember all the cries of "Ban Show and Tell! Ban Griselbrand!" Hilarious in hindsight! Hilarious! I said it then and I will say it now -- brew, don't bitch. People brewed and Omnishow is Tier 2 at best.

The Jund deck is quite intriguing. It's a pile of card advantage with [card Dark Confidant]Bob[/card] and Bloodbraid Elf. It reminds me a bit of what Team Italia tried to accomplish, but this looks like it does it better. Abrupt Decay being much better than Vindicate has a lot to do with that. Bob and Bloodbraid actually make the symmetrical discard on Liliana of the Veil backbreaking. Coupled with [card Hymn to Tourach]Hymn[/card], you can empty their mitt quickly and recoup the card disadvantage with Bob and Elf. People had flirted with Bloodbraid Elf in Legacy for a while and I think it's time we embrace the card.

Eight top eight decks is what I like to see. I feel like it indicates a healthy format and both Standard and Legacy look great in that respect.

The Mile High Club

I expected the top eight in Denver to look pretty different from the top eight in Columbus considering more pros and serious Legacy players would be in Denver. I was a little surprised to see it wasn't different at all.

GP Denver Top 8

Elves was everywhere, that Jund deck is everywhere, both RUG and BUG in the top eight, one Stoneblade list -- swap out the counterbalance list for Belcher and the top eights are nearly identical.

Legacy is quickly becoming a race to find the best Deathrite Shaman deck. Both Shaman and Abrupt Decay have transformed Legacy is a way that is exciting and a little unexpected. I had predicted Shaman was an amazing Legacy card, but I never in my wildest dreams imagined it would launch so many archetypes and resurrect others. Elves may be the new combo deck to beat in Legacy, so expect those Natural Orders you can't get rid of on eBay to start selling again. I sold a pile of Wirewood Symbiotes this weekend as well. Glimpse of Nature may see a price bump so get them while you can.

Ryan Bushard said on Brainstorm Brewery a while back that Deathrite Shaman could hit $25 before it rotates out of Standard. I laughed at him. I'm not laughing anymore.

That's All You Get

Remember, kiddies, play to your outs, buy before the bump, sell before the crash, and don't pay too much for a collection. That's all I have for you this week. Check me here next week, same Alt time, same Alt channel.

Insider: Touch of the Eternal — Investing for the Long Term

Posted on January 8, 2013January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome to the second installment of "Touch of the Eternal." This particular article will focus on long-term Magic investing, which tends to go well with getting into Eternal formats. Since cards don't rotate and there are fewer "flavor of the week" decks due to the power level of the format, you typically won't experience lots of sudden price jumps like in Standard. For those looking to get into Legacy I'll list the "staples" as well as a little bit of background information on them.

Format Staples

Dual Lands (Underground Sea, Tropical Island, Tundra, Volcanic Island, Plateau, Taiga, Badlands, Scrubland, Savannah, Bayou) -- These are a very safe investment. There is always demand and they are on the reserved list so there is no chance of a reprint. Even if Legacy were to die off they'd still be used in Commander, though they would drop a bit because of the influx of supply (though this is highly unlikely for now).

Force of Will -- The glue that holds the format together. While this card is not on the reserved list and could be reprinted, it is unlikely to ever be printed in the Standard environment for reasons of power level. A reprint would only occur as a judge promo, in a specialty set like Commander Arsenal, or in "Legacy Masters" (if they choose to make one). This is still a pretty safe pickup and you can trade or flip them very quickly.

Wasteland -- This is the card made to punish dual-heavy decks. The fact that it was an uncommon in Tempest, but still sells for $45-50, is a good indicator of the demand for this card. If reprinted, this would fall into the same category as Force of Will, except it is even less likely to be reprinted in any Standard set. Wizards has proven they are not big fans of land destruction as it goes against the "spirit" of the game that they envision (whether you agree with this or not is another discussion).

Onslaught Fetchlands (Polluted Delta, Flooded Strand, Wooded Foothills, Bloodstained Mire, Windswept Heath) -- These lands are a major reason the dual lands are so expensive as they allow you to cheat and play as many copies of the duals as you can fetch. These were the original cycle of fetchlands which the Zendikar ones were modeled after. While they are often essential for Legacy, due to the prevalence of Wasteland it's often best to fetch your basics unless you know your opponent doesn't play Wasteland. These have a high probability of being reprinted as they would be good for Modern and would be a great selling point for a set (similar to how the enemy fetchlands helped sell Zendikar).

Archetype Staples

Green Sun's Zenith -- This forms the backbone of the Maverick and Nic Fit archetypes. The ability to tutor into play any green utility creature for just one mana more than its normal cost is incredible. Currently these go for about 4-5 dollars online which I think is criminally underpriced.

The fact that GSZ is banned in Modern should alert you to its power. If they ever become unbanned they will immediately double in value. I'm personally picking these up at 4-5 in every trade I can. They will almost assuredly not be reprinted anytime soon, as they were just recently printed (Mirrodin Besieged) and as previously stated are banned in Modern. They were also included in an event deck, thus more copies than usual are on the market.

Tarmogoyf -- The best blue creature that isn't blue is the epitome of the undercosted fatty. For two mana you often get a 4/5 or 5/6. This guy spawned the RUG strategy, with the idea that one can ride a single powerful creature to victory with a suit of disruption in a timely manner. (As opposed to the original "draw-go" control decks that won via a decently-powered flyer and a plethora of counterspells, but took forever to do so.) This guy has been spoiled in Modern Masters and will consequently take a price hit. His mythic rarity in a short-print-run set will prevent the price from plummeting but he will drop in value as more copies enter the market.

Thoughtseize -- The best black discard spell ever printed. Thoughtseize allows one to trade two life and one mana to remove any non-land card from an opponents hand. Unlike Duress, which was primarily used to get rid of removal or counterspells, Thoughtseize also allows the caster to preemptively answer a threat. This card will very likely be reprinted in Modern Masters. If it is a mythic then don't expect the price to drop all that drastically, though if you want to make a quick buck or have no intention of playing them, I certainly advocate selling them now.

Dark Confidant -- Bob, as he's often referred to, was the invitational card created by Bob Maher. He provides an extra card every turn at a minimal cost, due to the many ways available to manipulate the top of ones deck and the low average mana cost of Legacy decks. He even provides a decent clock on his own. This card is very likely to be reprinted in Modern Masters as he's another Modern card over $35 dollars. If he's reprinted he will most likely be mythic, thus keeping his price from plummeting too much. Similar to many of the cards I expect to be in Modern Masters, I only advocate selling if he's spoiled as a regular rare or if you want to sell now and buy back after Modern Masters releases.

Vendilion Clique -- The Faerie menace rocked Lorwyn Standard partially due to this guy. Blue had previously been able to manipulate the opponent's library but not their hand until his printing. The fact that you get a 3/1 flying body attached at instant speed is pretty insane. It provides a decent clock, instant-speed hand disruption, and can even be bounced back via Riptide Laboratory or Karakas to generate a pseudo-fateseal effect every turn. It too will most likely be reprinted in Modern Masters, as he has broken $30 for even without seeing a lot of Modern play yet. When a good control deck does arise in Modern he will most assuredly be a large part of it. Again, sell if you want to make a quick buck, but over the long haul I expect him to maintain his value unless he ends up as a mass reprint.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor -- The planeswalker that ruined Standard also made huge waves in Legacy. The fact that he's banned in Modern means he won't be reprinted in Modern Masters. The fact that he had to be banned in Standard means he won't be reprinted in Standard. This guy is a solid investment, although with current prices nearing $100 I do believe he's at his peak again. I picked up my playset back when they were around $55 or so. While I doubt they will dip that low again, when the Legacy metagame tide shifts and he drops to $65-70 again, you can pick him back up.

Recent Additions to Legacy

Deathrite Shaman -- This little guy has been stirring up the Legacy melting pot lately. Given the massive amount of fetchlands in Legacy, he serves at the least as a harder-to-kill Birds of Paradise. Of course he comes with the upside of doubling as a pseudo-Scavenging Ooze and pseudo-Grim Lavamancer. If you don't have a playset now, get one. His price will only go up when Gatecrash is released and people stop cracking RtR packs. In the long run I expect him to reach $15-20.

Abrupt Decay -- This uncounterable catch-all removal spell has been seeing a lot of play in the same decks as Deathrite Shaman. The fact that Legacy prides itself on playing the most mana-efficient threats also means that this card deals with a large portion of the field, with the notable exceptions of Batterskull (though you can kill the germ token in a pinch) and Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

Detention Sphere -- The Oblivion Ring that pitches to Force of Will is one of the more exciting cards out of RtR for us Legacy aficionados. The fact that it has the Maelstrom Pulse ability to nab multiple permanents is just gravy. Currently these can be picked up for around $3 and I foresee this card easily hitting $8-10 in the long run as it's a very efficient answer to a whole lot of problems.

Supreme Verdict -- The uncounterable Wrath of God that also pitches to Force of Will is another gem from RtR for the Legacy U/W control player. Currently its limelight is overshadowed by the more mana-efficient Terminus, but should the metagame switch from aggro-control to a more control then this card will surpass Terminus in playability. These too can be picked up for around $3 and I consider them a solid buy. The fact that they are awesome in Standard doesn't hurt either.

Terminus -- A Wrath effect for the cost of Swords to Plowshares is a good recipe for a Legacy pillar. While U/W control decks have often been playable, they usually required playing actual threats in the form of Stoneforge Mystic. This strategy is not ideal against RUG Delver (another pillar of the format). Terminus provided another avenue to address this matchup, by allowing control decks to up their land count and maindeck mass removal.

Pure Speculation

Since the most recent additions to Legacy have been G/B and U/W, I expect those decks to gain traction. This means the staples played in those decks, as well as the appropriate duals and fetches, will appreciate. Many players want to play the best deck in a given format and supply for these staples is already limited.

Insider: Movers and Shakers

Posted on January 7, 2013January 17, 2022 by Paul Feudo

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Jace, Memory Adept is buylisting for $10 after a run midweek when Duskmantle Guildmage was spoiled and is going higher than that on ebay.

The public loves the idea of a viable milling strategy, and a fragile two card combo will attract fnmers if nothing else. I doubt there will be much price movement until after Gatecrash is released; word of mouth will help propagate demand at that point even if there are no high profile results to back up the deck's viability.

Imperial Recruiter is a Judge foil. While making an Aluren play at this point doesn't make much sense, I'm going to keep my eye out for Painter's Servants. Grindstone is already fairly pricey and will probably see a bump as more Recruiters come into the market, but the initial investment required has turned me off at this point.

Servants on the other hand can be had for $3-4 fairly easily and buylist to SCG for $3 making the risk negligible. I like this play quite a bit, but remember this is still legacy and you have to get rid of them before you buy out the internet.

GP Denver told us a lot of things about Deathrite Shaman, things we probably already knew, but did you remember it was an ELF Shaman? CFB did, and Matt Nass top 8'd with an elf deck using both Deathrite and more interestingly Natural Order.

People have already started buying up the cheap copies on Ebay, but this is a great target to pick up in trade and while I doubt it will return to its previous highs of a year or two ago, these are not easy to find and people will be asking for them again after months of no one caring about the card.

Modern season has already started and its no surprise that budget achetype staples have already started to climb given the lack of consumer confidence in the format as a whole with Modern Masters looming after the season's end. The following cards have gone up by at least half using TCG Mid in the last two weeks with some of them more than doubling: Daybreak Coronet, Sylvan Scrying, Karn Liberated, Auriok Champion, Serra Ascendant, and Wilt-leaf Liege.

Not only do all of these cards have real casual demand, they also have ingrained price memories much lower than their recent spikes and sometimes even lower than their pre-spike prices. There are still opportunities to pick these up at their old numbers locally, but its probably too late to make a cash play on anything that's already jumped on TCG so these are going to be limited to trade pick ups for the most part.

RtR Targets

While some of RTR has already rebounded after bottoming out a few weeks ago (Jace and the shocklands), many of the less exciting standard staples are still bargains. Its worth your time to pick up those cheap Abrupt Decays, and Supreme Verdicts. you'll be thanking yourself come June.

On the flipside, I'm actively staying away from Thragtusk during the next few weeks, and its not just because of Skullcrack though that has something to do with it. During a new format the hype is going to be focused around new cards even if they are actively worse than some of the known quantities. Thragtusk's current price is a product of it warping the format to the point that it took a second artificial supply increase to stabalize it during October. That artificial supply is going to drag the price down as people look to try new things during the first month of Gatecrash, and there isn't demand for those excess copies from the event decks. Thragtusk also hasn't moved in price for several months and will almost certainly get worse when every aggressive deck has the option of splashing for Skullcrack which combined with the excess supply available should make the price drop during February and early March.
~
This is a transitional period and prices are changing rapidly as we bring in the new year. This amount of fluctuation means that its time to hit the trade tables harder than usual, taking advantage of price memory is probably the best way to make money until Gatecrash hits now that many of the cash plays have dried up.
Happy Hunting.

Insider: Market Trends in Standard, Modern and Legacy

Posted on January 7, 2013January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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I have been more active than ever on eBay these past couple weeks. I've been doing my best to win some cheaper auctions on my latest spec targets, and I've been selling a good deal via Buy it Now listings. On Modern staples, especially ones which are spiking, I’ve found that eBay has generated better revenues than MOTL could. It seems eBay shoppers are willing to pay the average Joe near-retail prices, whereas MOTL sharks are still just that: sharks.

I've been so active because of the latest buzz in Magic. Modern season is in full swing, Standard is bracing for a new set, and we just had a 700 player Legacy GP in Denver, Colorado. Needless to say, there is much to discuss across all three of these formats.

My preference is to spend the vast majority of this article talking Modern – after all, many of the recent price jumps have been due to this format. Thus, most of my recent dealings on eBay have been in Modern. But it would perhaps be unfair to our Standard and Eternal players out there for me to do so. I will try to touch on the some noteworthy shifts for all three.

Modern Movers

Where to begin! Many of the fastest moving Modern cards have already been covered in the forums, but I still think there’s value in summarizing a few. For example, here’s the result I get when I search “4 Sylvan Scrying” on eBay:

But a similar search on Card Shark yields very different results (as of Sunday morning):

This image doesn't even capture the magnitude of this polar result. There are well over 60 copies of Sylvan Scrying under a buck across Tenth Edition and Mirrodin. Many sellers even have multiples, and playsets could surely be purchased for less than half of the only eBay listing.

Clearly the eBay seller is delusional – that playset is not likely to sell. But this discrepancy highlights why I've kicked up my eBay selling lately, despite the fees. Behavioral Economics would predict that if I list a playset on eBay for sale at a noticeable discount to the one listed (say, $9.99/set), it’s quite likely mine would be purchased because of the perceived “discount”. This is exactly what I intend to do, in fact, once the 25 copies I just purchased arrive.

Another example of this phenomenon is the recent movement on Serra Ascendant. The last two copies to sell on eBay sold at a price that might surprise you…

This card was retailing on Star City Games for $5.99. Card shark even has a couple copies still under $10 shipped. Yet once again we see eBay outpacing even retail prices, and the cheapest Buy It Now listing is for over $15 shipped – quite the premium over SCG, for now. My hunch is that when SCG relists Serra Ascendant, the price will be much higher. I predict $9.99. but it may take a couple incremental steps in between first.

Other Modern movers are less surprising. Thoughtseize is sold out at SCG at $49.99. There are about ten SP copies of Dark Confidant in stock at $44.99. What’s interesting about this one is that these sell for about the same on eBay – I just sold my set of SP Bobs on eBay via Buy it Now listing for $195 shipped. This means that even after fees, I’m coming up just a couple bucks shy of retail.

Another eBay vs. rest of world discrepancy is notable with Inquisition of Kozilek. SCG has a bunch of SP copies in stock at $5.49, but there are only two sets listed as Buy it Now’s on eBay, both with a higher price tag (disclaimer: the first one is mine; Edit: 2 hours after writing this article, my listing sold via Buy it Now!).

There are two key messages I want to emphasize here. First: some Modern staples are surprisingly on the move, while others are less surprising. But secondly, and more importantly, I've had some decent success selling Modern cards on eBay for near-retail prices. No matter how many retail stores there are, you’re bound to find the buyer who snap-buys from eBay simply because they assume eBay is cheapest.

Standard Sleepers

There will likely be multiple financial reviews of Gatecrash as the set’s release approaches. It’s never been my style to look ahead with new sets – Angel of Serenity aside, my message is almost always “don’t preorder cards”. My strategy has been, and continues to be, focused on buying strong cards already in Standard which will no longer be opened in packs.

Of course, with the unique draft structure of Return to Ravnica block, this alters slightly. People will be opening more Deathrite Shamans once Dragon’s Maze is released. Still, the window to pick up some cheap RtR cards for Standard speculation is open. Rather than buying up Deathrite Shamans, which have already spiked considerably, I’d prefer trading for Supreme Verdict (chart from mtgstocks.com).

A few months ago my “buy-solid-board-sweepers” strategy paid off when I invested in Terminus at a $2-$3 price point. Now that Supreme Verdict has reached similar price points, especially on the occasional lucky eBay auction, I’ve decided to repeat the strategy.

This spell is a control staple and will be prevalent during its tenure in Standard. And while the price has been dropping steadily since release, these may be fading away from trade binders once Gatecrash is released. The trend is not unlike that of Terminus (chart from mtgstocks.com).

Granted, Terminus sees Legacy play and Supreme Verdict isn't likely to see as much. But Supreme Verdict will see more play in Standard, so during its time in Standard I can see it reaching $7 just the same.

The other rare removal spells may also be worthwhile trade targets over the next few weeks. Detention Sphere is very cheap right now considering it’s better than Oblivion Ring, which saw significant play in Standard. Even Dreadbore may be worth grabbing if cheap enough.

The other Standard card I have on my radar is Jace, Memory Adept (chart from mtgstocks.com):

This Planeswalker has spiked recently due to the spoiling of the new Duskmantle Guildmage in Gatecrash. While just the one Human Wizard may not be enough to enable a viable mill strategy, many are hoping this theme appears multiple times in Dimir.

Just one or two more cards that punishes your opponent for milling would be enough to drive Jace, Memory Adept to $20. It’s already $16, an all time high, thanks to the Dimiar Guildmage. But at this price, I can’t advocate buying again until the card wins a sizable tournament.

Legacy Lurkers

Reading up on the latest GP Denver buzz, it seems that Elves has made a reappearance. But the version LSV ran also included Natural Order and…Craterhoof Behemoth??? According to the coverage on Wizards’ site, this is indeed the play:

Legacy continues to amaze me with its diversity. On any given weekend, even strategies that date back many years can somehow surge to the forefront of a premier event. This is but one example of that.

But what are the movers here? Natural Order is an expensive card to speculate on, but it’s also near a three-year low. These may get some notice yet again. In fact, combo decks in general seem to be making a resurgence.

Some BUG decks have moved Force of Will to the sideboard in favor of Hymn to Tourach in order to gain an edge in the mirror. This is music to the combo player’s ears, and I for one just may sleeve up Ad Nauseam Tendrils once again. Perhaps I won't be selling my set of Lions Eye Diamonds just yet.

Many Legacy price moves occur slowly due to the maturity of the format, but opportunities to trade hyped Modern cards such as Serra Ascendant for depressed Legacy staples like Natural Order cannot be passed up.

Wrapping It Up

As I mentioned at the opening, this has been a busy few weeks for me in MTG Finance. I constantly have a few listings on eBay and I buy cards on average of more than once a day. With so many price moves across all three formats, it’s difficult to sit on the sidelines for too long. These are just some of my observations, and I suspect next week will bring even more.

Thus is the beauty of the internet and MTG Finance.

…

Sigbits

I’ve already touched upon most of the surprising shifts in the market. How about foil Deathrite Shaman now retailing for $59.99! More than twice foil Abrupt Decay, which has been sold out at $24.99 on SCG for a couple weeks.
I mentioned this on Twitter, but it’s noteworthy enough to share here. Did you know that Hallowed Fountains from Dissension retail for $24.99? This is more than TWICE the Return to Ravnica version, which retails for $11.99. I know the artwork is better, but this type of discrepancy can’t be permanent. I’d expect the gap to shrink in time.
Jace, Memory Adept, Serra Ascendant, and Sylvan Scrying (nonfoil) are all sold out at SCG. I’ve got a restock alert set to all of them, and I predict at least two out of the three will be relisted with a higher price point. My one hesitation is Sylvan Scrying, but I think even this sorcery will go up in price before it goes down. Just make sure you sell your copies soon, since both the Ascendant and Scrying are reprint candidates for Modern Masters.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Return to Ravnica Case Study

Posted on January 5, 2013January 17, 2022 by Gervaise Pechler

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In this new year I want to kick off by wishing everyone a prosperous 2013. We as Magic speculators are a bit spoiled because of the Gatecrash spoilers coming out. In this article I want to explore the rise of a sleepercard in Return to Ravnica. It has been 3 months ago Return to Ravnica has been released. At the time of the Prerelease the prices were formatted on a cheatsheet for QS members which still can be reached when clicking here

I've made a spreadsheet where we can compare the prices set on that cheatsheet with the prices of today and its respective %price change: http://goo.gl/D3qaM

The Losers

To make the percentual change clearer, I have highlighted certain cells. Let's start with the biggest losers. These consist of the planeswalkers Jace, Architect of Thought and Vraska the Unseen, overhyped rares like Abrupt Decay and Lotleth Troll and some casual hyped cards like Rakdos, Lord of Riots, Armada Wurm and Niv-Mizzet, Drocogenius. They all lost between 35 to 69% of its prerelease value. For rares this is quite logical due the amount of supply being increased substantially due the fact this set is so popular. If my local game store had to open Fat packs in order to supply 2 pods of 8 people to draft each week, that probably means something.

In absolute numbers Abrupt Decay lost $14 on its value while in the mythic section one see Vraska the Unseen being the scapegoat losing $17. I think we as QuietSpeculators already knew that this was going to happen.

The Sweet Spot

Now the notable stable cards are only found in the Guild Lands section. Hallowed Fountain and Blood Crypt stood their ground in price being only one percent off despite being a rare like Abrupt Decay. Furthermore they are highly demanded among traders, which is fascinating that they retained their original price.

And The Big Winners

The cards highlighted in green are the notable sleepers. I do not think Temple Garden is a sleeper but it gained 33% due the fact that GW lands are more demanded in the Standard constructed environment. The biggest sleeper in the Mythic section is Sphinx's Revelation with an astonishing 391% increase or $15. A humble second is Angel of Serenity which was circulated to our QS Insiders on 9/13/12 which Sigmund explained that the card is preselling at $7.99 on SCG. I joined the boat only to miss the peak hype of $25 but it is still a solid gain.

In the rare section we have Ash Zealot which gained 62% or a gain of $1.21 per card. But the biggest jump is Deathrite Shaman climbing from a low $4.53 to just $11.27 (+148%). Now for a rare this is fascinating because generally these rares do not retain this value nor jump that high.

I want to delve more indepth in how a one mana Elf Shaman with three abilities became the most expensive rare of this set on European Soil and is highly liquid.

Deathrite Shaman's Ascent

Deathrite Shaman got spoiled on September 18 during Gavin Verhey's article with a couple of brews of other players.¹He writes about the utilities of this card mainly being a ''pseudo-Grim Lavamancer'' or just another ''Arbor Elf'' although in upgraded form. The B/G aggro decklist he posted is very close the list that is a viable deck in Standard today.²

On that same day Matthew Santos made a thread on QS. In that same topic Matt Lewis gave us information that SCG is sold out at $5.99 pre-orderered. I also posted there that I like the card but found it a bit expensive to go in at $6 in Pre-order season.³

When the whole spoiler is released, there are authors on SCG, CFB, Tcgplayer and other sites doing a set review. The first one published was Conley Woods at TCGplayer⁴ saying the following about Deathrite Shaman:

'' (( 3 / 5 rating )) I am a little skeptical on this guy. On the one hand, I think he might be absolutely absurd in a land where fetchlands are rampant. The ability to have the mana ability online from turn 1 is so important to what I think this card wants to be. In Zoo for example, this is similar to a Noble Hierarch in that it provides early mana with a late game presence. Meanwhile, in Standard, it feels like this will be lacking. Without a reliable way to get lands into the yard immediately, this just comes up lacking. In reanimator decks that are casting Faithless Looting on turn 2, it seems good, but in your average rock deck, it seems mediocre.
''

Conley was skeptical about this card but Craig Wescoe was particularly bullish about this card in his Financial article at TCGplayer making a prediction the card will be $7.5 while it is current $4.68 TCGplayer Low at the time he published the article. ⁵

On that same day Sam Black wrote a Premium Article about updating his Legacy Zombie deck. He dedicated a lot of text to Deathrite Shaman explaining his choice for playing this card.⁶ When looking at the Legacy Decks through the StarCityGames Deck database one sees loads of decks containing 4 Deathrite Shaman when one filters Deathrite Shaman as an inclusion in the deck resembling a staple card int he deck.

One day later Gerry Thompson briefly mentioned Deathrite Shaman in his brewing Reanimator list saying Deathrite Shaman functions as a proxy Birds of Paradise. I think around this period the authors are comparing the Shaman with either Birds of Paradise or Grim Lavamancer in a vacuum. ⁷

But we – as Quiet Speculators – are mainly interested in its financial potential. So on that same day Ben Bleiweiss released his Premium Article titled ''Return to Ravnica Financial Wrap'' and ''The Financial Value of Return to Ravnica: Daily Edition''. Both are premium articles but I will paraphrase what he basically wrote about our Shaman. The starting SCG price was $3 and 24 hours later it was $6. Ben feels this is a hyped card expecting it to drop significantly because of its conditional activation. Basically he shares the view of Conley Woods at that time that it has a lot of abilities but finds it to marginal to find a decent home in constructed magic.^{8 9}

Chas Andres wrote on the 1^st of october another Financial Set review on StarCity confirming the bearish view towards Deathrite Shaman. He briefly mentions it as an ''unreliable Arbor Elf''. ¹⁰

On that same day there is a free article on StarCity by Valeriy Shunkov writing about 'Return to Ravnica Modern Set Review'.¹¹ He argues Deathrite Shaman is a very powerful card in its colours and in its metagame as it ''has multiple applications against different decks as it is good against Kitchen Finks, Snapcaster Mage, red decks and against stalled boards in creature mirrors''. I particularly enjoyed his argumentation for an upcoming metagame.

Luis-Scott Vargas concludes on ChannelFireball with his RtR set review that he sees that there is ''plenty of potential for this in older formats'' as it produces mana in most cases so being a 1 / 2 Birds of Paradise with an enormous upside. ¹²

Just before the Pro Tour of Return to Ravnica (19 – 21 october) , Kelly created a thread about Deathrite Shaman once more highlighting SCG increased its price to 10 from 6. I feel around this period loads of playtesting concluded that Deathrite Shaman is actually pretty good in Modern Jund decks. ¹³

As expected Deathrite Shaman held the number 2 spot in Top 5 cards at the Pro Tour as well as 2 out of 3 Jund decks that were T8 at the Pro Tour played 4 Deathrite Shaman's mainboard. ¹⁴

I pulled an Ark42 graph resembling only a 50% increase during the Pro Tour. It did show a $4 starting price which I found crucial in a graphical presentation. ¹⁵

Furthermore in Europe, we have MagicCardMarket often being the Low price for cards selling Deathrite Shaman from 9.99 euro ($13.15).¹⁶ I mainly focus on English, NM and sellers who have more than one.

Looking at retailers I see MagicMadHouse and Manaleak (United Kingdom) selling at $13.82, Nedermagic (Netherlands) at $17 and Outpost (Belgium) at $16.49. These prices are almost double compared to TCGplayer low while TCGplayer average is at $11.53

I am very sure that I can miss information published on social media and/or other MTG websites regarding Deathrite Shaman and I do realize that the information provided here is incomplete. My intention to show this information is to analyse and understand how we – as speculators – can be steps ahead of other MTG players by anticipating the next moneyrare in Gatecrash in the forms of Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel or Deathrite Shaman

Having this card in your binder creates a huge amount of liquidity as you can easily trade these away for Modern staples like ZEN fetches in which you can then further uptrade to something stable in the long-term. Apart from that it is also perfectly reasonable to buy them low and sell them high to buylist or on marketplaces. Finally I think this card is a keeper in the sense that the value is stable, the liquidity is very high meaning you can trade it away to a higher tier card and that the use accross multiple game formats ensure its viability.

I would like to continue this discussion further in a thread or the comments section where we both can conclude whether using information based on set reviews, financial predictions from stores itself is useful.

Thank you for reading!
Gervaise

References:

Insider: Closing Out Standard and Diving Into Modern

Posted on January 4, 2013January 17, 2022 by Chad Havas

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Happy New Year Speculators! With another year behind us, and a new one ahead we dive head first into Modern Season. If you’re anything like me, I hit a Magic black hole over the holidays as I’m busy travelling and catching up with friends and family. Having been back for a couple days now, I’m going through Modern events on MTGO to see where the next move will be. Before we do, I want to follow up on a couple calls I made last month in for Standard.

Standard Follow-up

Garruk, Primal Hunter has nearly doubled since I recommended him early in December, and I think he still has a small bit more to grow, but if you’re able to get rid of him at close to retail I’d be doing so. If you’re like me, and many of your outlets might be buylists, then I’m willing to hold out a bit longer to see if the buylist pricing will come up some more before Gatecrash releases. Angel of Serenity has yet to move, in some places its come down about $1, but the format hasn’t shifted a ton yet. I’m still hanging on to her until we see a bit more of what’s going to happen with post-Gatecrash Standard.

Nephalia Drownyard is one I’ve been standing behind confidently for some time. It’s nearly 5x the price I bought at on MTGO from $0.05 to up above $0.20. I’m tempted to cash out my digital copies, but I expect it has some more room to grow, as the paper card catches up. It shows some movement on Ebay, but is still found around $0.20 through various vendors online. My confidence on this card just continues to grow, and I’m doubling down on my paper investment, while with the recent increase on MTGO I’m just going to stand pat there.

At the onset of the season, I invested in Deathrite Shaman on MTGO. It started around $2.50 and has been steadily climbing towards $4. I expect this to continue for quite a while, so i’m not ready to jump out of this spec yet, but when RTR is no longer drafted on MTGO, I expect this cards growth to really shoot up. We’ll follow up on him next month.

Modern Happenings

In my week and a half black hole of Magic happenings, apparently a card I’ve literally never heard of, Daybreak Coronet, has shot up to over $20 appearing in a hexproof-aura themed deck. If you happened to jump on board for these in time, congrats. If you find any sitting in a box somewhere, time to dig ‘em up and dump ‘em. Even if this deck is real, which I don’t know that it is, this should fall pretty quickly back to Earth.

As results start coming in, we’re starting to see a fairly consistent field at the top tables. Splinter Twin, Pod, Jund, UWR Isochron Scepter, Robots and Storm. There are also some newcomers, including a traditional U/W control. I’m ready to start picking up Shocklands from RTR that have homes in these decks. Steam Vents can be found at $7 various places around the net, and that price, I want in. Once we stop drafting RTR, these rares won’t be just everywhere, and especially given that it’s played in 4 of the decks listed above (All but Robots and Jund). Additionaly, it is barely played in Standard at the moment, so it’s demand is as low as it will ever be. I’m moving in on this one.

In fact, the only shockland I don’t like as a buy right now is Temple Garden, which is not only the highest price currently (due to demand in Standard) but it’s the least played in Modern. Finance writers tend to harp on the seasonality of manabases, yet I hear clamouring of “when did Land X shoot up and why?” We’ve got a change in PTQ season as well as a change in limited season, so we’ve got an increase in demand and a relative decrease in supply on these cards. While the physical supply isn’t going anywhere, as cards aren’t actually being consumed or destroyed, people who aren’t selling or trading have essentially removed their cards from the market until the price drives up enough that they change their mind.

Keep in mind the Draft season will include RTR again in Spring, so they may recede again. I’ll be watching them closely to try and identify exactly when they hit their peak so we can all get out at the best time.

Gatecrash Spoilers

Gatecrash spoilers are starting to trickle in. Thus far, there are no amazing speculation targets, but we do get a peek at the mechanics. Until we see something more motivating, I’m not ready to adjust any of my positions.

I will say, unlike most, I am a fan of the new Gideon. He’s going to break aggro and mid-range matchups, while against a Control deck he’s less exciting but still okay. Any planeswalker that can slowly tick up to his ultimate against a Control deck will win the game, so that’s just a given. However, in a creature vs. creature battle, a player facing down a Gideon will have to either A) Attack your Gideon, B) Ignore your Gideon, C) Leave back blockers to not die to Gideon. In these matchups, all of the above are actually awesome for the Gideon player. Option A gains you at least 7 life, and truly acts as a Time Warp. Option B means you get to start swinging with a enormous beater (so long as you aren’t immediately dead when they attack you). While option C means you get to Edict them every turn while you’re gaining life because they aren’t attacking, best of both worlds. Sure these are situational, but Magic is situational and dissecting the way matchups play out is how we find diamonds where everyone else sees coals. If you have second thoughts about Gideon, I suggest you proxy up some decks and see how he plays for yourself.

It looks like 2013 is going to be a great year for Magic.

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Marvel Super Heroes

Marvel Super Heroes Tokens

Through the Omenpaths 2

Marvel Super Heroes Commander

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal Tokens

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Tokens

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Source Material

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Lorwyn Eclipsed Art Series

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Scars of Mirrodin

Innistrad

The Shocklands

The Trouble with Projections

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Mechanic Play

More Uncommon Ground

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The Calls

Chromatic Lantern

Jace, Architect of Thought

Abrupt Decay

Cyclonic Rift

Shocklands

Other cards

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Car Wrecks in Standard

Porting G/W Auras to Standard

Untitled Deck

Creatures

Spells

Enchantments

Lands

Sideboard

Common Lines of Play

Versus Aggro

Versus U/W Control

Versus Nonblue Midrange or Control (Jund, Naya & Reanimator)

Sideboarding

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Looking at the Evidence

Judgment

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The Trade May Not Be Worth It

You May Have Lost a Player

So, What Rules Should We Follow?

Put Yourself In Their Shoes – Even When They Don’t Fit

Don’t Kill The Game

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How Did We Get Here?

Troy Thompson is Omniscient

spells

lands

sideboard

So What, Ryan?

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Considering Your Outs

Ins Matter Too

Notable Resources for Selling

Fights of Columbus

The Mile High Club

That's All You Get

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Format Staples

Archetype Staples

Recent Additions to Legacy

Pure Speculation

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RtR Targets

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Modern Movers

Standard Sleepers

Legacy Lurkers

Wrapping It Up

Sigbits

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The Losers

The Sweet Spot

And The Big Winners

Deathrite Shaman's Ascent

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Standard Follow-up

Modern Happenings

Gatecrash Spoilers

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