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Core Set 2019 has always felt to me as a generally underwhelming product. With mythics taking up so much of the value of the box, and not particularly that much of the value either, it seemed to be pretty... meh. As a sealed product, the prices were that of a sub-par Standard box, even over a year after its initial release. The main hits were always mythics, and the rares just took up space, with the occasional inclusion in an odd Commander deck here and there.
Taking a look at the current value of the set, and specifically, the cards that make up that value is jarring. The cards themselves have found recognition for the often subtle use cases and the ones with more overt use gaining value day over day. With this gradual rise in value, some investors are surprised by the prices coming about recently. Let's take a look at the set as a whole and see what we can gather from the information we have.
The Uncommon Value
One of the most surprising facts about the current market of Core 2019 is that an astounding amount of commons and uncommons hold value over $2.00. Some prime examples include Stitcher's Supplier, Psychic Corrosion, Reliquary Tower and Ajani's Welcome to name a few. Stitcher's Supplier is holding $4-5 on any given day, and with it being out of Standard for a while now, it begs the question of why? It seems that the reliable self mill for a low, low cost of one black mana is simply too good to pass up for some players of formats that it is legal in, and the demand seems to be enough to hold the price.
With Psychic Corrosion holding $3, and not seeming to see much play in traditional 60 card formats, it leaves only Commander left on the table for possible uses for this odd card. With other alternative versions of this card being few and far between, it would make sense that Commander decks utilizing those cards would be quick to grab alternatives, even if they are slightly worse, to provide higher and higher redundancy. Reliquary Tower and Ajani's Welcome seem to be just good enough to see some play in Commander, and that might just be enough.
The Rare Redemption
The two main rares for the set are Goreclaw, Terror of Qal Sisma, and Dragon's Hoard. Nothing too crazy, just some good cards, and both see decent amounts of play in Commander. I personally played both in casual Commander decks in the past. Both are a bit below five dollars, but the value, especially in normal rares, adds up. With 32 or so rares in the box, even having 10 of those be worth around five bucks can make up over half the price you pay at retail. Good rares make a good set, and while these two are the most valuable, plenty are worth your while and make it a very worthwhile product.
The Mythics
The mythics are the real powerhouse of this set. With the five most expensive being above $20, the top three being all above $30, and the most expensive card in the set is $45. With heavy-hitters like Omniscience, Crucible of Worlds, and Nicol Bolas, the Ravager being at the top of the list. Most if not all of these are very well played in Commander, and have no reason to not be! All of them are iconic cards from a flavor perspective and have very high power implications, if not at a cost.
With Crucible of Worlds being very powerful in lands matter, Omniscience being well played in decks favoring lots of high mana cost spells, and part of a few low-efficiency combos, overall, the mythics in the set hold a lot of value, and if you pull the right ones, make returns well worth it. Foil mythics included make this package pack quite a punch.
Sealed Perspective
For the three years that this product has been in circulation, the sealed price hasn't been above $100 often. With a price trend similar to that of Zendikar Rising or Kaldheim, it didn't make much sense. With the value held, even at the time, being well worth more than that. Over the past several months, the prices have been steadily rising, as if the market itself was slowing correcting the prices, but not quite as rapidly. The demand wasn't really there, but the value was. Now with sealed prices at an all-time high of $140, people are starting to take note. Sealed is performing incredibly well right now, and demand is steadily rising, as more and more people noticing the potential for growth, and trying to get a slice of that sweet cardboard pie.
The Lesson
An important lesson to learn is that high demand does not always equal high prices. The basic principles of supply and demand have implications that people overlook. When the demand is high, the supply is very important, that is a given, but when the supply of singles goes up, because of high demand for sealed correlates to higher amounts of box openings, and thus a higher supply of singles, which means less demand for sealed boxes to open for singles. In some cases, this may lead to sealed prices rising, particularly in cases where the supply is so low, that the scarcity matters to the people creating the demand that remains, or with sets with an enjoyable draft experience, a certain novelty, collectability, or scarcity of specific singles needed to create value with a lower quantity of potential customers.
When a set does not have an overwhelming demand, the singles are more scarce. When singles are scarce, and people want more, the one place to look is inside sealed boxes. With the demand for sealed rising, prices rise along with it, as supply is mostly entrenched with investors or stores with leftover supply, and these increases in sealed further reinforce single prices, leading to a subtle feedback loop of increasing prices, and demand along with it. This is consistent with the slow and steady trend we have seen. This is also consistent with several other poorly received sets, like Theros Beyond Death, whose price little by little has been increasing.
Farewell
To the victors go the spoils, but in the game of finance, the victors aren't always as clear as they seem. It may seem easy to take the big rewards, but in this current financial climate, especially in the MTG community, it may be better to settle for stability. With every movement, an equal and opposite movement must exist, and where massive swings for the positive exist, so do massive swings for the negative.
We must begin to question whether the market at its current point is sustainable, as the more flashy things become, the more hype we gather around these things, and the higher we drive these prices, we must ask ourselves if we are able to sustain this growth, or have we bitten off more than we can chew. For now, support your LGS, be smart, have a great week, and invest in cardboard (responsibly).
New to the tribe are Unsettled Mariner, coming in at the full four copies, and Realmwalker. Mariner's been seen in Merfolk, Humans, and Spirits, so it's no big surprise to see the changeling supporting this tribe. Slivers used to play Diffusion Sliver, which asks a higher tax of opponents at the cost of weaker stats and less relevance overall; Mariner also deals with spells targeting the player, including discard and direct damage, and that extra size really matters in a world of Lava Dart and Wrenn and Six. As for Realmwalker, this newer changeling offers the tribe a card advantage engine stapled to a body—look, Ma! No Collected Company!
These types of combo decks can prove soft to disruption, a challenge Hunt meets head-on by offering pilots as little as one, but probably something more like three or four, cards off the top for a two-mana investment. Since many of these lands function as spells, that card advantage boost can keep Scapeshift's head above water when opponents are banking on setting up a clock and then countering or stripping the payoff spells. Previously, most similar builds would pack the deck full of multicolored costs and lean on Niv Mizzet to recoup card advantage; the problem with that line is that Niv itself occupied the same price point as most of the payoff spells, making it rather clunky once things got to the point where Scapeshift was casting real spells. Conversely, Hunt can be played as early as turn two, or before opponents get Cryptic Command online.
Instead, it looks like Lumimancer is 
From what I've seen, the issue with Lumimancer decks is Lumimancer. With no help, it's a 0/1 and dies to a weak breeze. At least Monastery Swiftspear is a 1/2 with haste. If the opponent provides any resistance, Lumimancer suddenly becomes a liability. Again, without magecraft triggers, Lumimancer is a 0/1. To save it from a Lightning Bolt requires expending two spells or a Mutagenic Growth. If the opponent is smart and Bolts on their turn, then those resources are expended for no value. And that's not getting into what happens when you dump a bunch of spells into an attack and Lumimancer gets Fatal Pushed orPath to Exiled. Which gives me strong Infect vibes, and that deck doesn't 
However, these decks are the exception. Of the 
Right before the ban, UR Fiend had moved away from a single-shot deck towards a midrange deck. Earlier versions had little recourse but to slam down their threat and hope it survived to serve as a cannon to funnel their hand into damage. And that it would be lethal. These later versions could sit back and let Thing in the Ice do the work for them. This was before Fatal Push, meaning that a 0/4 was fairly hard to kill and a 7/9 was vulnerable only to Path to Exile. As the game went longer, Bedlam Reveler would refuel the deck and be a very dangerous threat. All while the threat of sudden death by Kiln Fiend was maintained.
What is typically happening is players start with a typical 
Boros Charm is a little expensive by Prowess standards, but it does a lot of damage and can make Lumimancer lethal with double strike. Which makes it far more confusing that those decks that have tried it do worse than these lower-work versions.
The first thing to discuss is that, unfortunately, learn and lessons didn't 
happen, but given the quality of white's sideboard cards, I don't really want to sacrifice them for a mediocre effect just because I can tutor for them.
Which when I point out that we've been down this road before. The proposed play pattern (dumping your hand into a single massive swing) is less like current Prowess decks and more like the 
While I don't really agree, I've also heard that Expressive Iteration will see play in Izzet Prowess. The argument is that sorcery speed doesn't hurt since Prowess only plays spells on its own turn anyway, and unlike Telling Time, Iteration is (potentially) card advantage. And I see the point. Prowess already plays Light Up the Stage, and it's easier to cast Iteration when spectacle hasn't been triggered. However, when Prowess is chaining spells, Iteration is a huge choke point since it always costs UR. Every other non-creature is one mana or Manamorphose. If Prowess needed some late game grind I could see it, but as-is, it seems like too big an ask.
The headliner is Elite Spellbinder. I'll admit, when I first saw Paulo's Championship card, I was confused. The ability is like nothing we've had before. And the lack of flash seemed to really hurt playability. However, as I've thought about it, I think that Spellbinder will be a very solid card. Humans could always use another way to look at opposing hands for Meddling Mage, and another 3-power flier can't hurt. The disruption is harder to assess. The card that Spellbinder takes (and it's any nonland, for once) is still technically in the opponent's hand (assuming they don't forget about it) unless they cast it and pay the tax. This is pretty mediocre against cheap spells and pretty devastating against expensive ones. This screams sideboard card for DnT against control, combo, and Primeval Titan.
Speaking of Meddling Mage, Strixhaven brings a new one. Kinda. Silverquill Silencer doesn't actually stop opponents from casting the named card. It just punishes them severely. And for a fast aggro deck like Humans, that might be enough. Three life and a card to cast a spell is no small price in a vacuum, and worse when on a short clock. This is balanced by the named card still being castable, so unlike Mage, Silencer doesn't actually stop sweepers nor prevent a combo turn. It just ups the price. As a result, Silencer will never replace Mage, which is probably why it gets an extra point of power. I also have doubts that it would see play in decks that wouldn't play Mage in the first place. However, it makes sense as extra Mages. Which makes me wonder how to fit the new cards into Humans, which in turn suggest that the deck needs a rebuild.
On that note, the main decks that I can see Proctor being good against are land decks. I'm specifically excited at the thought of Vialing in Proctor in response to Scapeshift and taxing all the triggers. Killing Proctor with the first trigger accomplishes nothing, too, since its taxes all go onto the stack first. However, I'm conflicted about using it against Amulet Titan. On the one hand, it hits Primeval Titan and Amulet of Vigor, seriously hampering the deck's ramping and gameplan. On the other, it also hits the Karoo bounce trigger, which can be a positive or negative depending on the intended sequencing. I want it to be good there, but I'm not sure it will happen.
Jund Shadow 
Of course, not all Jund Shadow decks run Scourge of the Skyclaves. Wait... they don't? I don't know about you, but that's not a development I'd personally have predicted! Scourge's failings as the metagame develops are twofold, however:
Last up is 
a huge chunk of data to lose. I was genuinely worried that all of March's data would be lost and I'd have to skip the update just like in February. Even when the glitch was fixed, the gap was large enough to bring validity into question. Fortunately, it didn't come to that, as others were as frustrated as I. 
All that changed with the gap. With only Challenge results to go on, Heliod Company shot up the rankings (particularly the power rankings). Once the data returned, the Preliminary results began to increasingly mirror the Challenges and with that Company stayed in the upper tier. Thus, I'm left wondering if this shift is the direct result of the gap or a natural metagame evolution. If it's the latter, then I should have seen a gradual increase of Heliod decks in Prelim results. The result is that the current results reflect the "true" metagame as it evolved. If it's the former, then what happened is that players saw Heliod do well in the only available results, assumed that it was the best deck and reacted accordingly. So the results I'm recording for April reflect an "artificial" metagame. In other words, the metagame's gone recursive.
As mentioned, the data's down from 
Amulet Titan would have made it. I think Burn and Eldrazi Tron are actually Tier 2 instead of Tier 3 for the same reason. Both Infect and Crab Mill just missed making Tier 3, but I'm less certain that either would have made it with more data. Crab Mill had a few results early on then disappeared while Infect just appeared every so often. Mill missing Tier 3 is therefore likely correct (remember, more data changes the thresholds) while Infect is a random bullet so who knows?
countermove because that smallerish group of players can (theoretically) keep tabs on what they're doing. Without outsiders to challenge their narrative or provide a contrary point, that narrative reigns and becomes the metagame even if in a more open metagame with a more diverse population it would not be the case.
Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a decks that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile.
Thanks to some very good Challenge results, 
However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results.
