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Introductory Modern Mechanics: Strixhaven Spoilers Week 1

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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Greetings students, and welcome to the first week of Strixhaven spoilers. As this is the first week, I'll be keeping things simple by going through the set's mechanics. I've made this a tradition for all new set spoilers, and it's particularly appropriate this time as the new mechanics are a both surprisingly straightforward and annoyingly indirect. So open your books, and let's begin.

The first thing to note is that the set's full name is Strixhaven: School of Mages. Yes, that last clause is the conceit of my stylistic flourish this article. It is also critical to understand the ecosystem of these mechanics: it's all about non-creature spells. Of course, there will be quite a lot of creatures, and many of these mechanics will be stapled to creatures; Wizards's whole design philosophy is that creatures are central to the game. However, the driver will be the non-creature spells, instants and sorceries primarily. Artifacts and enchantments are getting some love too thanks to the red-white school Lorehold's themes. You should also know that it's an enemy-colored set. So Jund, Burn, and Prowess players will be paying especially close attention to Strixhaven.

Learning Lessons

The signature mechanic is technically a split mechanic. Strixhaven introduces Lessons, which are instants and sorceries with the lesson subtype. This subtype doesn't mean anything on its own, impacting functionality only flavorfully. Rather, the marker is for usage with the learn keyword found on some spells. Learn seems to be used in place of "draw a card" in Strixhaven, as it's just on cards as an additional effect. Said cards are all flavored around the many parts of academic life (I'm feeling very seen by Pop Quiz), but that's the only connection. That said, learn has a lot of potential because it either lets you wish for a Lesson or just cycle (discard a card to draw a card).

Teaching Is Hard

I should specify that learn has potential, but that doesn't make it good. Cycling is a good mechanic, but mainly in the context of Living End. The only other cycling spells that see play are Unearth and Shark Typhoon. While there are interesting implications of Living End getting to cycle creatures without the mechanic, that seems a tad inefficient. Those decks are so streamlined as-is, so why complicate matters?

Outside of Living End, there is certainly utility in discarding dead cards without cycling to draw into new, relevant ones. However, the cards currently spoiled strongly suggest that utility won't be sufficient for learn cards to see play. Frankly, they haven't spoiled a card with learn that's playable on its own. That may change, but it also may not. The closest is Professor of Symbology, and that's mainly because she's white. White doesn't get velocity cards very much, and thus any white velocity card automatically becomes a good white velocity card. This is enhanced by the mana cost and stats. However, there's no deck she fits into, and nothing that you'd ever play her over, which means she'd never actually see play just as a 2/1 velocity generator.

Rather, the potential for Modern comes from the wish. Karn, the Great Creator has shown how valuable wishes, and especially repeated wishes, are in Modern. This isn't a companions situation; it's just more wishes. The catch is that the only targets are Lessons, which means that the value of learn is directly tied to the value of the lessons. Which honestly feels like something a lot of professors need to hear, but I digress. If there are Modern-playable lessons that are also good enough to sacrifice a sideboard slot for, then the Professor will be especially playable. Death and Taxes could potentially gain a ton of value by repeatedly flickering her and wishing for whatever is needed. And at least if you don't have the right Lesson, she can cycle a superfluous Plains.

Lessons Worth Learning?

Of course, the problem is that (again, as of writing) there's only one potentially playable Lesson. The rest are overpriced versions of existing cards and wouldn't see maindeck play, much less taking up a precious sideboard slot. There's no justification for playing an inefficient Attune with Aether or Preordain maindeck, much less in place of a Modern-level sideboard card. Unless that changes, I'll be tuning out of another disappointing class.

The one possible exception is Academic Probation. This card is incredibly niche, but in certain matchups it might be backbreaking. Preventing a single card from being cast for a turn is way too narrow to see real play, and Azorious Arrester already exists and never sees play. However, as a wish target, Probation might be a decent bullet. I can see it being strong against combo decks by naming the right card. I'm seeing Past in Flames or Grapeshot against Storm, Thassa's Oracle against Ad Nauseam, or Living End just to buy the turn needed to finish the game. There's some (questionable) utility in naming Supreme Verdict to again buy time for an aggro deck to close the game too. Were it an instant, it'd be potentially devastating against many combos, which is probably why it's a sorcery in the first place. But when opponents are on the verge of combo-ing off, it reads a lot like Time Walk.

There's at least some potential in fogging a creature, though it's much less practical. Trying to prevent a combo attempt by Heliod Company is only a brief reprieve and a waste of a card. The best I've come up with is blanking Primeval Titan for a turn cycle, which isn't terrible if all you need is that turn cycle to win. However, that's still a pretty weak application, and if Probation is as good as it gets then learn is on the ropes. If there are more niche-but-effective cards, there may be something here.

Magecraft

Next up, and sticking with the instant and sorcery theme, is magecraft. Magecraft is an ability label for any ability which triggers off an instant or sorcery being cast or copied. Which presumably means there will be a fair amount of copying in Strixhaven, though only one way has been spoiled. In any case, this is just for permanents which have a minor effect when you play into the set theme. The value of magecraft will therefore largely be determined by the playability of the underlying card and not the ability. It's not that the abilities are poor, but that they're not good enough to make up for an otherwise unplayable card. At least, there aren't any yet. Archmage Emeritus is close, but not close enough.

Combo Creatures

The one magecraft card that might make it (again, as of writing) is Witherbloom Apprentice. Draining for one point per spell isn't anything special, but this is Modern, and we have Storm.  Two-mana wizards are a staple of the deck, and while Apprentice doesn't fit the color (or creature type) scheme, it halves the storm count necessary for a lethal Grapeshot, which opens up some possibilities. Suddenly, Jund Storm seems possible, as it doesn't need blue's cantrips, cost reducers, or Gifts Ungiven to generate 20 total storm. Instead, there's a chance that red's mana production alongside green land search and black card draw can do the job with only ten spells. I'm not sure that's actually better than traditional Izzet Storm, but it's something to explore.

However, the greatest potential is for some entirely new combo to emerge. Apprentice triggers on any instant or sorcery, or their copies. In Legacy, Apprentice and Chain of Smog targeting yourself is a kill, because Chaining yourself can be done infinitely. There is nothing comparable in Modern, or at least I couldn't find it after hours of looking and asking reddit. The existing options for making lots of copies are both storm cards, specifically Gravestorm and Weather the Storm, and there's no way to generate the necessary storm in a single turn without the red rituals. However, maybe there will be a new card which will enable Apprentice. At minimum, it's one to watch.

Ward

Next is ward. Ward is a new name for a mechanic that I first remember seeing on Frost Titan. Wizards has formally keyworded it so that they don't feel compelled to put hexproof on so many creatures because they want them to matter and have learned that weakening removal too much causes problems. White, blue, and green will be getting variations on the Titan version while black and red get the Terror of the Peaks life payments. There's nothing notable for Modern here, except that hopefully this also means that Wizards won't feel like they have to make everything gain ridiculous amounts of value just by casting it to matter so we never get Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath again. Hopefully.

The Twins

Finally, MDFC's are back again. That's it. Wizards is trying to mechanically tie their sets together more, and so they've included the same mechanic in three sets. Nothing we haven't seen, and nothing I haven't discussed already.

That could have been the end, mainly because the MDFC's spoiled so far are the college's deans, and none of them are Modern playable. However, also spoiled is the first MDFC planeswalker ever: the twin walkers Will and Rowan Kenrith. Both sides have Goblin Electromancer's cost-reduction ability, and Rowan is cheap enough that I could see her seeing play. Will might too, but he'd be an afterthought at five mana. However, Rowan does have two problems. At three mana, she's more expensive then Electromancer or Baral, Chief of Compliance, which would price her out of Storm. Plus, Storm doesn't always play a full set of either creature, so why play a three-mana version? Secondly, she's fragile, with only two starting loyalty and a +1 ability. Wizards actually learned from War of the Spark, apparently.

However, don't count Rowan out. Her +1 can be a potent finisher when fully powered, and Prowess tends to play a lot of cantrips. I can see certain versions using her as a finisher and enabler with Will as a long game option. In such a deck, Rowan's fragility would be less of an issue, since opposing removal will be strained by the creatures and it's unlikely that creatures would be able to attack her before she can build some loyalty. Even if she does just die, that's removal that didn't hit a creature, which may be good enough for Prowess. Stranger cards have seen play for stranger reasons.

More to Come

So marks the end of this introductory article. I hope everyone now understands how Strixhaven means to continue. Next week is the metagame update, but after that, class will resume with the rest of the spoilers. Plan your studies accordingly. And most importantly, before asking any questions, check the syllabus first. Class dismissed.

The Long Term Impact of Magic Crossovers

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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It’s amazing how ahead of its time InQuest Magazine truly was. The monthly magazine, which was published from 1995 to 2007, has now predicted at least a couple of major trends in Magic.

It started with the creation of a “sixth color”. Technically, InQuest writers predicted the color would be purple, and the lands that created purple mana would be called portals. It didn’t exactly come to fruition in this way, but Wizards did create a sixth basic land type: Wastes. I suspect we haven’t seen the last of those lands and the colorless mana mechanic, either, as Wizards seems to like returning to a world with Eldrazi in them.

But in the meantime, it looks like Magic will be traveling to a different world—one which was also predicted by InQuest Magazine. Back in Issue #69, the magazine published “what if” Magic cards themed around Middle Earth.

Now, about 20 years after these Middle Earth cards were published, Wizards of the Coast president Chris Cocks announced a series of cards that will feature crossovers with two franchises: Warhammer 40,000 and Lord of the Rings.

While little is still known about these releases, I’m going to speculate a bit this week and explore possible MTG finance implications of such sets.

These Ain’t Your Parents’ Magic Cards

In an old person’s voice: “When I was your age, we walked to our local hobby shops, uphill in the snow, and were thrilled to have enough change to purchase a cheap pack of Fallen Empires or Homelands. I never did open that Hand of Justice, but at least I knew what my Magic: the Gathering cards would look like!”

Let’s face it: Magic has come a long way since its inception in 1993.

                        1994:                                                                          2020:

          

Players who have been around for a while (including myself) may be swift to criticize the direction that Magic has taken over the years. What used to evoke imagination, pretending to be a Planeswalker casting spells and summoning creatures to destroy your opponent, has now boiled down to the concrete. I find it difficult pretending to be that same Planeswalker when summoning Rick, Steadfast Leader to the battlefield. But maybe that’s just me.

Then there are all the novel frames, foilings, and artworks. Rick, Steadfast Leader is an extreme case, but there are many variants of Magic cards being printed nowadays that, quite frankly, don’t look like Magic cards!

Don’t get me wrong—the artwork on this series of cards is incredible. It’s obvious these artists are talented, and the cards do give off a 1990’s heavy metal vibe. But these look nothing like a Magic card. At this point, you could sit down across from an opponent and their opening hand can contain seven cards that don’t look remotely like a traditional Magic card.

I predict Wizards will be doing more of this over the next few years, not less. They tend to follow a strategy where they discover a successful, new idea, and then proceed to reapply that same idea over and over again until it loses its luster. We’re still in the hype phase with these alternate-style Magic cards. A time will come when doing live coverage of a Magic event will become extremely difficult simply because commentators will struggle to identify every variant of every card that exists...there are already a bunch that don't even look like Magic cards to begin with!

It’s ironic that the newest set released by Wizards, Time Spiral Remastered, boasts reprints of cards in the classic Magic frame. Perhaps this was done to placate the enfranchised players.

MTG Finance Implications

It’s no simple task to predict the impact a Lord of the Rings-themed Magic set will have on the game. A balance needs to be struck between the players who appreciate the classic aesthetic/storyline of the game, and the players who embrace the ability to play their favorite game with some of their favorite characters and themes from other franchises.

When all the dust settles, however, I predict these crossovers will be a net positive for Magic on the whole. Creating a Lord of the Rings, Dungeons and Dragons, and Warhammer 40,000 themed set will bring newcomers to Magic by tapping into other fantasy-related games/storylines. This growth in the player base will, in turn, grow the popularity of the collectible card game.

These newcomers won’t exclusively purchase and play cards from their associated franchise. Once they get a taste of how great a game Magic is, I’m confident many will stick around, at least for a while. This means an increase in demand for Magic’s other, more traditional sets.

The impact on newer sets will be miniscule, probably even negligible. New sets are “print to demand” for the most part, so (COVID-19 aside) there should be no problem creating enough new product to satiate the appetite of classic and new Magic players alike.

But what about the impact on older cards, such as Commander staples that haven’t been reprinted in a while or Reserved List cards? One may postulate that a Lord of the Rings fan wouldn’t have interest in spending hundreds of dollars on a Dual Land or Wheel of Fortune. But the reality is, Commander is Magic’s most popular format nowadays. It would be shortsighted to assume newcomers to Magic wouldn’t naturally drift towards a format where they’re encouraged to play all their favorite crossover cards in a friendly environment.

At least some number of these newer players will want the appropriate Reserved List cards for their deck. It seems inevitable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wheel Of Fortune

I also put forth the assumption that fans of these other franchises may have extra cash on hand to spend on hobbies just like Magic players do. Perhaps there will be a little sticker shock at first, but I see no reason why a $500 card would cause a Warhammer 40,000 player to balk any more or less than a Magic player.

Thus, it’s no large leap to hypothesize that a growing player base will lead to more demand pressure on all things Magic, which will send prices of the most desirable Reserved List cards higher. A Lord of the Rings fan probably won’t rush out and purchase a Bazaar of Baghdad or Juzam Djinn—they probably won’t be the first ones to pick up Vintage or to pine for Magic’s nostalgia. But could a Lord of the Rings fan prioritize buying a Gaea's Cradle for their Legolas Commander deck? I definitely think so!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

I don’t think you even have to try and guess which cards will align themselves best with Lord of the Rings or Warhammer 40,000. Since these are all going to be Magic cards in their own right, it’s safe to assume that good Commander cards will remain good. In other words, there’s no reinvention of the wheel here. A card that was a good investment before becomes an even better investment in a world where the Magic player base grows.

Wrapping It Up

There’s time yet before these franchise crossover Magic sets are released. We know very little about them at the moment. But that really doesn’t matter—when it comes to MTG finance, anything that brings new players to the game will be a net positive for card prices.

The more mainstream Magic becomes, the greater its longevity. If Magic sticks around for another couple decades, some of the game’s earliest cards—especially those Commander staples on the Reserved List—stand to appreciate significantly in value. For this reason (and many others), I remain steadfastly bullish on Magic prices over the long term.

Now that the franchise crossover barrier has been broken, there’s really no limit to what Wizards of the Coast can do to draw newcomers to the game. Hasbro is well-versed in this space. Just look at what they did with Monopoly. What began as a popular board game in the 1930’s has evolved to become one of the most proliferated games in the world with numerous cross-overs and spinoffs. Reinventing a classic to drive sales is not a foreign concept to Hasbro.

As for predicting which crossovers may come next? I’d look no further than old InQuest magazines! They apparently have a knack for making such predictions about the future of Magic. They already predicted Advanced Dungeons and Dragons and Middle Earth cards. They also have Manga Magic, Planet of the Apes, Cthulhu, Stephen King, and Dragonlance crossover card creations…perhaps we’ll see some of these come to fruition in the years to come?

Regardless of what the franchises are, any chance to bring new eyes to the beloved game of Magic should bode well in keeping the game alive, thriving, and therefore quite lucrative for years to come!

Chain of Smog: From Bulk to Broken

Posted on by Kai Haas

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The new standard set Strixhaven is just around the corner; with spoiler season upon us, the time has come to examine these new cards. With the new spoilers coming out as the days go on, people are starting to figure out some of the cool card interactions. One of these card interactions is a two-card infinite combo in mono-black. The first part of this combo is the new Professor Onyx which features a new mechanic by the name of Magecraft. The second part of this combo is an uncommon card from Onslaught, Chain of Smog.  This combo has turned this seemingly useless piece of bulk, into a card worth almost $15 apiece.

The way this combo works is very interesting. Liliana's ability, and any other card with Magecraft, causes an ability to trigger whenever you cast or copy a spell. In the case of Professor Onyx A.K.A Liliana, whenever you cast or copy a spell you drain your opponent for 2 life, and you gain 2 life. With Chain of Smog, any target player discards two, and then that player may choose to copy that card. Essentially, you choose yourself as the target, copy the spell, choose yourself again, rinse and repeat. This triggers any Magecraft ability infinitely. This is even better considering that with Professor Onyx it makes a two-card infinite combo in mono-black, which for many cEDH players is a very desirable thing.

The Price

Before this spike, Chain of Smog had been sitting at around 30 cents for most of its life span, and up until recently, had no reason to change that. On the 23rd, Chain of Smog jumped to about $15 a piece. There still is a decent supply on TCGplayer, with even damaged copies selling for nothing under $10, but on Card Kingdom, all copies are sold out in every condition, with Star City Games and Channel Fireball in similar positions. Over the past couple of days, it has held its position with a slight downturn recently.  If we look at a similar card Demonic Consultation, we will see that it experienced a similar jump in price when Thassa's Oracle was spoiled in early 2020. That is a slightly different circumstance, however, as Demonic Consultation still had a use before then, and had value before then, with the start of the value increase for Demonic Consultation starting in 2019.

Chain of Smog jumping to over $15 last week.

Demonic Consultation showing multiple jumps in price over the past two years.

Playability

With the release of Thassa's Oracle  in Theros Beyond Death, the playability of Demonic Consultation rose drastically, especially in competitive Commander circles. The reason for this being, while some cards offered combo's with Demonic Consultation before (Jace, Wielder of Mysteries and Laboratory Maniac to name two), none offered a two-card combo this cheap. With the introduction of Thassa's Oracle, you only needed two cards and three mana. The only restriction was that your deck had to be Blue-Black (in Commander at-least), and you had to have two blue mana, and one black mana, to play this combo. This was by far better than the three blue mana and one black mana requirement of Jace, Wielder of Mysteries and Demonic Consultation combo, but more could still be improved.

This improvement is arguably made by this new combo. since the color requirement is only black, you could run this in any Commander deck that runs black. No Commander requirements, no extra colors, just any deck with black. This would allow this new combo to be slotted into a lot larger portion of decks, allowing for more widespread use and more demand. The only downside seems to be the large cost requirement of colorless mana, being eight mana instead of three. This may be a big dealbreaker or could be worked around with other methods. Either by cheating out Professor Onyx or by using some heavy non-color-specific ramp. One suggested workaround is by using Planebound Accomplice to cheat her onto the battlefield. Either way this plays out, I am excited to see how this goes, both financially and in gameplay.

Predictions

Since Chain of Smog is also almost 20 years old, it is fair to say that the supply isn't absolutely ridiculous. Normal players don't have 10 copies sitting in their attic, but it isn't super rare either. This possibility for widespread use, with an additional aspect of relatively lower supply, could allow for this card to fetch a pretty decent price tag. I think it is fair to say that this could stay at these seemingly ridiculous prices, maybe even higher depending on the actual use of the combo after Strixhaven is released. The possibility of something so ridiculous is becoming less ridiculous as the weeks pass. Remember the Shivan Dragon buyouts that left Fifth Edition versions of the card with prices through the roof? While the prices did eventually fall, it wasn't by much. The cheapest NM Shivan Dragon you can find on TCGplayer is almost $20

Stranger things have happened, and it seems in this strange time that some of the craziest most outlandish things will happen. I could see this combo being more widespread than Demonic Consultation and Thassa's Oracle, or I could see it falling by the wayside, and being discarded as inefficient. Whichever way it goes, this is going to be an interesting example of the economics of high power play.

The Takeaway

This could possibly be one of the most powerful combos cEDH and perhaps other formats have ever known. Some master deck builder could come up with an insane turn one win, bypassing all of the downsides of this new interaction, and make this a new staple in competitive decks running black, or we could have all but forgotten about this in two months time. We really don't know, and we can debate all day long, but until it comes, we truly don't know. If you were lucky enough to pick up a couple of copies before the price jumped drastically, I applaud you. If not, you never know, maybe pick up a few and see how it goes.

The future belongs to those who reach out and take it, not those who sit and wait. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but satisfaction brought it back. Until next time everyone, have a great day, be smart, and invest in cardboard.

The Latest Contender? Analyzing Heliod Company

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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And now, back to our regularly scheduled metagame analysis. Let me just take a look at what's been winning... oh. MTGO's reporting system is bugged; there's been no new data since March 10. Huh. Ok, well, let me just see what's happening in the community... wait, really? Heliod Company is considered the best deck now? When did that happen?! The data that Wizards did manage to post clearly shows that Jund Shadow is Modern's best deck. Something's up here.

So, yeah, there's a new data crunch. As of writing, MTGO has not posted any decklists for almost two weeks. We're not totally deprived of data thanks to the work of redditor bamzing working twitter to get the results from Challenge-level events. However, there are no Preliminaries, so we're getting an incomplete metagame picture. Even by the past year's standards. And the narrative that I'm seeing everywhere is that Heliod Company is the best deck, which is a surprising turnaround. That deck has been hanging around Modern since Heliod, Sun-Crowned was printed, frequently though inconsistently in the top tiers. However, its average points were always abysmal, and below the baseline. Something has dramatically changed for it to be considered a bogeyman.

A Reality Check

I have to lead with the disclaimer that all the hype may be nothing. MTGO is a fairly small metagame because most players don't want to buy another collection for the limited payoff of playing online. Thus, the total population is smaller, which makes groupthink and/or circular metagaming easier. It is much easier to level yourself with smaller samples; if you know the likely competitors, know what they play, and plan to beat that, so long as they don't do the same to you. Since the data from the limited source is further choked off, its much easier for weak observations to guide thinking and/or lead players astray. It may be that Heliod Company is the best deck right now. However, it may also be a self-fulfilling prophecy caused by MTGO players believing the hype or overthinking the metagame.

In other words, don't discount the possibility that right now Modern is chasing its own tail. Happened all the time on the Star City Games circuit. And MTGO is even more insular. I see the same names week after week in the Challenge results, and I don't think that's an accident. As such, whatever that group of very dedicated grinders thinks is happening is what will actually manifest in the results. I can't tell if the "real" metagame is actually defined by Heliod Company.  Perusing League uploads suggests that red decks define the metagame. Thus, I'll be approaching this dive on Heliod Company with a critical skepticism.

The Latest Variation

Anyway, on to the deck in question. As mentioned, Heliod Company has been around a few months, and is just the latest variation on the theme of Collected Company Creature Compendium Combo decks which have been around for years. The deck has taken many forms in its history, sometimes as a major contender and sometimes as a forgotten deck. It's always been a deck of acceleration and medium (at best) creatures which intends to win via one of several combos and is held together by Company. And in a great many ways, that's still the case.

Heliod Company, PTarts2win (March NRG Modern Open, 2nd Place)

Creatures

2 Walking Ballista
4 Arbor Elf
1 Noble Hierarch
4 Auriok Champion
4 Conclave Mentor
4 Heliod, Sun-Crowned
4 Ranger Captain of Eos
4 Spike Feeder
3 Skyclave Apparition

Enchantments

4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

4 Collected Company

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Temple Garden
3 Horizon Canopy
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Forest
2 Plains
2 Prismatic Vista
1 Pendlehaven

Sideboard

3 Damping Sphere
3 Path to Exile
2 Veil of Summer
2 Wheel of Sun and Moon
2 Deicide
1 Skyclave Apparition
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1Giant Killer // Chop Down

I'm actually almost glad that paper Magic isn't a thing because of this deck. Whenever Company is good, my LGS is overrun by it, and I don't usually play decks with good Company matchups. Last time it happened, I played Jeskai Control for months instead. It worked, but it's not how I like to play.

About the Deck

Few decks have ever epitomized "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" more than Company combo decks. While most of these creatures are at least reasonable Modern cards on their own (which is a first for the archetype), there's little to explain how it can hang with the likes of Izzet Prowess or Tron. What a lot of players forget is that Company is primarily a multi-combo deck. These decks contain multiple combo options for infinite life and infinite damage (and once upon a time, infinite mana via Devoted Druid and Vizier of Remedies). The trick is that this time, the combos require fewer parts.

Company started out having to assemble either Melira, Sylvok Outcast, Kitchen Finks/Murderous Redcap and Viscera Seer or sometimes Spike Feeder and Archangel of Thune. Vizier replaced Melira and created the mana combo so that a drawn Walking Ballista or a Duskwatch Recruiter to find the Ballista killed. Chord of Calling and Company were essential to actually make it all happen. The combos in Heliod Company all require just two cards, which is far easier to pull off. With Heliod out, Feeder goes infinite immediately. A Ballista with two counters given lifelink also kills with Heliod.

The biggest advantage is that Heliod is a +1/+1 counter engine by himself. Even if the combos don't happen, there are plenty of options to just use Heliod to build an army and win fairly. Conclave Mentor makes it easier and Company is always around to rebuild a board. Which would suggest that without Heliod, the deck just falls apart.

The Three Keys

However, that's easier said than done. The greatest strength of this iteration of Company is its creatures' survivability. All the critical creatures in previous versions died to Lightning Bolt. And while the non-Heliod combo pieces do still die to Bolt, the critical creatures don't. Even after sideboard, they're hard to answer. These are the true keys to Heliod Company's recent success.

1) Heliod isn't usually a creature

In the library, graveyard, hand, or on the stack, Heliod is a creature. However, on the battlefield, he's only a creature with five devotion to white. Even when he is a creature, he's indestructible. Consequently, there are very few answers to Heliod. The creature removal that works is Path to Exile, and I've noticed Company players being very careful with their devotion in matchups were Path is a consideration. And should that devotion count disappear (say, via Ranger-Captain of Eos being sacrificed), suddenly Path becomes irrelevant, and will fizzle if it was on the stack targeting Heliod. The God is therefore the rare engine card that isn't vulnerable to any commonly played removal. And thanks to indestructible, he's also not vulnerable to the typical sideboard enchantment removal. Heliod then gets to just hang around and threaten to combo off if the conditions are right. The only commonly played answer that unequivocally works is Skyclave Apparition.

2) Maindeck Auriok Champion

You know everything I said about Company being the glue holding the deck together? You can forget that; it applied to the older versions. The second-most important card in Heliod Company is Auriok Champion. The best Soul Sister may not be part of any infinite combo, but she's the best combo piece in the deck. She and Heliod combine to turn any creature (yours or the opponent's) into +1/+1 counters with no further input, growing the battlefield out of control with a speed often attributed to Humans. Plus, Champion has protection from the two main removal colors, which translates into an extremely sticky combo that simultaneously keeps you in the game (by gaining life) and making it harder for the opponent to win (Champion keeps getting counters). It's no quick combo, but its the best long-term plan for when it just isn't coming together.

Champion also makes those combos easier. The Ballista kill requires a total of six mana so that Ballista has two counters when it enters and Heliod can grant lifelink. Champion reduces that to four mana by providing the extra counter. Champion also provides an extra counter for Spike Feeder if Lava Dart is a concern. I'm actually retroactively surprised that Champion was not more integrated into previous versions, since it obviates the need for Kitchen Finks as lifegain.

3) No Easy Sideboard Solutions

Finally, and again unlike previous versions, there's no silver bullet against Heliod Company. All the earlier versions relied on Company, Chord, and persist creatures, which meant that Grafdigger's Cage was backbreaking if left unanswered. Anger of the Gods wrecked the whole board and beat all the recursion Company used to run. With Heliod Company, independent of Apparition answering everything, there's no common sideboard card that's effective. Cage only hits Company; Anger of the Gods (which I loved against older versions) does nothing against Champion and Heliod; Aven Mindcensor only hits Ranger-Captain, which just searches for Ballista. No single card is half as effective against Heliod Company as Cage or Anger were, and that's helping to push up Company's numbers. Deicide, Wild Slash and Blightbeetle are seeing play just to have something against Company; that's how resistant the deck is to hate.

The Right Metagame

The final reason that Heliod has just exploded is that the metagame is ripe for it. Since the bannings, the format has been in flux. However, the red decks were largely unaffected, and having previously been top tier decks which now lacked a predator (Uro, specifically) Burn and Prowess made a play for dominance. And it worked, for a while. The problem is that there was a deck perfectly ready for them with 3-4 maindeck Auriok Champions and an infinite life combo. Toward the end of February (the 25th if Apparition's price history is an indication), Heliod took off, feeding on all the red decks and began to move up the rankings.

And the format continues to be favorable. The data I've collected puts Jund Shadow as the most played deck online (as of right now at least) with Burn at least Tier 2 and Prowess variants looking like strong choices. In fact, prior to the data problem, Company was a middling deck because it didn't show up in Preliminaries; just Challenges. With the only data being said Challenges, Heliod has closed the gap with Jund Shadow, as it puts large numbers in the Top 32. However, that's limited to the Challenges and the few outside events I've scrounged up (NRG series is a big one, but not the only one); the Heliod advantage isn't so clear. It still does well, but the total impact of all the red decks is far higher. In other words, there's ample prey for Company and it's taking advantage, whatever its inherent strengths.

Is There a Threat?

Of course, this being Modern, the question immediately becomes if there's a problem or not. And my answer, as always, is that it's far too soon to say. There's not even clear evidence whether this is a real phenomena or just a quirk of the MTGO competitive crowd. However, if I were to pretend that Company's ascension is no accident or metagame fluctuation, my answer would still be no. Company is the kind of best deck that I like because it isn't just more value than everything else. It needs a lot to go right for it, and can be disrupted. Plus, its combo isn't necessarily game-ending: Tron and Infect don't care about infinite life, and the latter can win before Heliod more reliably. Death's Shadow went from Rakdos to Jund because Tarmogoyf is effective against Champion. Let's wait and see if Heliod survives the likely decline of red decks before breaking out the pitchforks.

The Probable Solution

More importantly, even if Heliod Company is good, it has a natural predator that will hold it back. Remember how I said all the creatures are pretty medium? Company is still very vulnerable to dedicated anti-creature control. Moreso than before in many ways. Without Chord, there's no tutoring for Spellskite or Selfless Spirit, which makes spot removal and sweepers (besides Anger) far more effective than older version. Ranger-Captain may be a tutor, but its choices are mana dorks or Ballista. Not great for grinding. That isn't happening because the control decks seem to be more focused on each other than on killing creatures. If they go back to anti-creature configurations instead, Heliod will have a bad time.

In the meantime, it's important to remember that Heliod is being carried by its namesake and Champion. Planning around those cards will pay more dividends than worrying about the various combos that are much harder to assemble now. Plus, the deck is generally underpowered, and a little slow. The right removal at the right time and a reliable gameplan will work better than trying to outsmart Heliod. I think we've forgotten how to deal with medium decks after the past few years, and that's helping Heliod.

There's Always Another Fish

There's nothing wrong with having a best deck in Modern. There's also nothing hard to indicate that Heliod Company actually is that best deck. For now, it appears that the Premier event metagame is wrapped around Heliod, so plan accordingly. For everyone not playing Premier events, I wouldn't worry. The Leagues still appear to be wide open and undefined.

Speculating on Strixhaven

Posted on by David Schumann

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Strixhaven, the plane that many have dubbed the "Harry Potter" plane, we see WotC focusing on schools of wizardry. The biggest takeaway I have gotten from all the announcements is that if the set is focused heavily on a wizard school, then it should obviously feature a lot of creatures with the wizard subtype. Throughout much of Magic's history, the wizard subtype was typically relegated to blue creatures, but more recently we have seen a lot of red creatures with this subtype. Our first few specs for Strixhaven are all focused on cards that play really well with wizards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Voidmage Prodigy

My first speculation opportunity is Mr. Kai Budde himself. Unfortunately, Voidmage Prodigy was outshone by the rise and dominance of the Psychatog decks back when the card was first introduced to Standard. However, the ability to sacrifice any wizard and counter any spell is definitely powerful and an ability that gets better as more wizards enter the card pool. It is important to note that Voidmage Prodigy was reprinted in Time Spiral and was a player rewards card. While you can obviously speculate on any of the copies, I would expect the Onslaught ones to have the most potential upside.

I myself picked up a few foil copies several years ago as a failed spec with Inalla, Archmage Ritualist. However, now maybe my redemption on this one. While some of the specs on this list have a higher risk of being reprinted simply due to their "genericness", Voidmage Prodigy happens to also have the keyword Morph on it, so it's far less likely to be reprinted into any standard legal set unless that set includes the Morph mechanic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Riptide Director

Another of my mostly failed Inalla specs. Repeatable card draw is always something desirable in Commander and the more wizards one has in play the more powerful this effect. While you do have to sink 4 mana into the ability, blue decks tend to save their mana to react to opponents a lot so holding up mana to potentially counter a spell and if no worthwhile spell is cast using that mana to draw multiple cards is right up blue's alley. One of the biggest upsides with this card is it has had only a single printing way back in 2003, 18 years ago. I do see more risk with this speculation target than with the previously mentioned Voidmage Prodigy simply because it is generic enough to slot into a set and likely have minimal impact on Standard.

However, there is a lot of potential upside because the buy-in currently is very low and given WotC has been printing a lot of commander-friendly standard cards lately; any new legendary wizard commanders will likely cause a run on cards that play well with them. While I have no crystal ball, I think it's almost 100% assured that WotC will print at least 1 if not multiple legendary wizards in this set. As I put my money where my mouth is, I did buy a couple foil copies as I feel those to be the safest bet with significant upside potential. I do accept that now that WotC has started printing a couple Commander decks with each set, this is a card that could easily be included in them, however, the buy-in is low enough that I feel it warrants the risk.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Patron Wizard

Back in 2017, Patron Wizard had spiked to $20+ and then slowly began its descent back downward. Its addition to "The List" in 2020 helped continue that downward trend. The ability to Force Spike repeatedly any spell your opponent casts is extremely powerful, however, the cost of keeping creatures untapped is also pretty high. Back in the days of Odyssey Standard, there was a deck dubbed "Harry Potter" that used Patron Wizard and cheap wizards to lock your opponent out of the game.

While I can see a decent upside to this card, the biggest issue to me is that the buy-in is already relatively high $10+ and if it were printed in one of the Strixhaven Commander decks its price would surely plummet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Riptide Laboratory

Riptide Laboratory used to be a singleton in some Snapcaster Mage-based Legacy decks thanks to its ability to re-use the ETB effect of that particular wizard. It provides a decently powerful effect on its own that becomes far more powerful when wizards that have good ETB's exist beside it. While there have been three printings of this card in Magic's history 2 of them are relatively smaller print runs than a normal set run.

Both Jumpstart and The List provided additional supply to the market place but the price effect has been pretty dramatic given that both of these options likely provided a lot fewer copies than one would expect. As mentioned repeatedly, this card's generic enough that it could be reprinted in either Strixhaven or one of its Commander decks relatively easily, however, should it dodge a reprint this seems like a card that would easily jump in price by 50% or more.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Naban, Dean of Iteration

Normally, I tend to avoid any cards that are very recently printed as the supply of them is considerably higher than many older rares or even uncommons. Naban, Dean of Iteration is an almost bulk rare, so the buy-in is basically at its floor. Your risk of loss is pretty minimal going in on a card like this. While nowhere near as powerful as Panharmonicon, it acts very similarly in a wizard tribal deck, but is 3% of the price. Being mono-blue means it can slot into a lot of potential decks, though it also means you would have to sacrifice a lot of options to play him as your Commander.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vedalken Aethermage

The key part of this card is the "Wizardcycling" ability which is entirely unique to this card only. Commander really loves tutor effects and a virtually uncounterable one is definitely a nice bonus. I originally had intended to suggest picking up foils of this card, but the buy-in is more than $10 per copy and one of Maro's statements about this set was that a card that was originally printed in Future Sight would be included in the set, so while it's a slim possibility, it is still a possibility. While foils would likely see the biggest jump they also represent a bit more risk than I prefer to take myself. Even the regular copies of this common are selling for $0.5+ and should it dodge a reprint this could easily be a $3+ common.

Conclusion

We should start seeing more Strixhaven spoilers on March 25th. Movement on some of these cards could happen relatively soon should something get spoiled that plays very well with them, so bear these wizards in mind in the coming weeks.

Comparing Alpha Rares with Other Collectibles

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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A couple weeks ago, an interest Facebook post spread throughout the Magic community, particularly within the Old School crowd. Amidst a sea of finance chatter and Time Spiral Remastered spoilers, it could have easily been overlooked.

The post came from WOTC founder Peter Adkinson, and it quantified more precisely the initial print run of Alpha.

The TL;DR: Alpha rares are a little scarcer than initially thought.

In a relative sense, the previous guesstimate of 1,100 was good enough to depict the true rarity of these cards. The absolute difference of roughly 10% is irrelevant when you’re talking about 1,008 vs. 1,1100. But I want to pause on these numbers this week and consider how truly special an Alpha rare truly is. To emphasize their scarcity, I’m going to compare to some other collectibles and their estimated print runs to hammer home why Alpha rares are the cream of the crop and why I think most are still criminally underpriced.

Print Run Comparison #1 – Action Comics 1

When it comes to comparing collectibles markets, the reality is there are endless options to choose from. People can collect all sorts of things: trading cards, sports cards, video games, coins, stamps, toys, etc. In order to provide sufficient context in my comparisons, I’m going to focus on a few easily researched, well-known collectibles.

To start, I want to talk about Actions Comics 1, the 1938 comic book that first featured Superman. This is one of the most desirable comic books among the collector community. The comic book outdoes Magic when it comes to value—a CGC graded 9 issue sold for $3,207,852 USD back in 2014. That’s around six times the most recent graded 10 Alpha Black Lotus’s sale price.

One may ask what the print run was on this three-million-dollar comic book. According to Wikipedia, the print run for Action Comics 1 was 200,000, nearly twenty times that of an Alpha rare! So if these are so relatively plentiful, why are they so expensive? I can’t find any recent eBay sales of an Action Comics 1, but it looks like a few single pages from Action Comics 1 sold for a few thousand dollars each on eBay.

There are two factors at play, I believe. First, these comic books are far older than Alpha Magic cards. To be precise, they’re 55 years older. Thus, far fewer are likely to have survived over the years. Second, far more people have heard of Superman and comic books than have heard of Magic. Thus, the potential buyer population may be much larger.

Still, if Magic sticks around for another 55 years, could more desirable Alpha rares sell for north of $3,000,000? You better believe it. At that point, a heavily played Alpha Purelace could be selling for a few thousand bucks, kind of like the individual pages from Action Comics 1.

Print Run Comparison #2 – Rare Lincoln Cents

I’ve been a fan of Lincoln Cents ever since my dad introduced me to the world of numismatics back when I was seven years old. He passed down his old penny collection, which he began when he was a kid. His father, my paternal grandfather, was a New York City taxi driver and used to bring home his change at the end of each day. My dad would dig through it and look for pennies to add to his collection.

I never made the commitment to complete the Lincoln Cent collection, but I have made slow, steady progress over the years. As of today, there are some key dates I still lack because I don’t want to spend the money necessary to complete the collection. Here’s a picture of some of the oldest dates in the collection.

One thing I always found fascinating about this folder was that it included the mintage numbers for each date and mint mark. So for example, 101.2 million 1911 pennies were stamped (in Philadelphia), but only 4 million 1911-S pennies were stamped (in San Francisco). The most difficult penny to track down for this collection is the elusive 1909-S VDB penny, which had a 484,000 “print run”.

The last one to sell on eBay went for $565.55 plus shipping, and was in pretty rough shape. High quality, graded versions of this penny can sell for north of $8,000.

Now, it’s true that this penny’s value pales in comparison to the graded Alpha Black Lotus that recently sold. But you need to keep in mind that a print run of 484,000 is about 460 times larger than a given Alpha rare. Yes, these pennies are over 100 years old, but that’s a lot of pennies minted.

I wonder what a penny would be worth if it had a print run closer to that of an Alpha rare. Well, I don’t know if one such penny exists, but I know of one Lincoln cent that is even rarer: the 1943 copper penny.

I won’t bore readers with details here. Suffice to say, due to a copper shortage during World War I, pennies were made of steel instead of copper. All 1943 pennies, that is, except for a scant few. Experts estimate about 40 pennies were minted in copper in 1943. With such a small number, it’s difficult to estimate value. The last one to sell reportedly sold for $204,000 at auction. Previous estimates reached north of $1,000,000 (perhaps for a nicer condition coin?).

While 40 is far less than 1,008, it’s an interesting reference point. Imagine if the 1943 copper cent was a powerful piece of a popular game. I wonder what it would sell for, then!

Print Run Comparison #3 – Rare Baseball Cards

I’m less familiar with the world of sports cards—I was into the hobby as a small child, but quickly lost interest. But I ran a quick Google search for the most expensive baseball cards of all time and came up with two interesting case studies.

First, the holy grail of baseball cards: the 1909-1911 T206 White Border Honus Wagner card. Over the past few years, this card has exchanged hands a couple times for north of $1,000,000 and current estimates put the value closer to $4,000,000. Granted this card is far older than an Alpha Magic card and the print run was likely smaller: estimates put the print run range of 50 to 250 copies.

This is perhaps slightly to ambitious to compare to Alpha cards. It’s far older and a good bit rarer. Not to mention baseball card collectors probably outnumber Magic collectors by a fair margin.

Let’s instead compare Alpha to another highly desirable, chase baseball card: the 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle card.

In nice condition, this card still fetches seven figures. I did some research, and unfortunately, there’s no information on print run. One forum I found online discussed this prospect, and the estimate was on the order of magnitude of 100,000's of copies. Even if this is overcalculated by double, it’s probable this card is more plentiful than an Alpha rare.

What does this Mickey Mantle card cost on the open market? In nicely graded condition, you’re looking at a $2,500,000 card. In subpar condition, the value ranges drastically depending on grade. Looking at recent eBay auctions, the card appears to sell for anywhere between $5,000 and $950,000. Thus, the grade and pedigree of the card plays a profound role in the card’s value.

This may be a good comparison to Alpha cards. These Mickey Mantle cards are also far older than Alpha cards. But if Magic remains relevant for another 40 years, it is not at all far-fetched to see a nicely graded Alpha Black Lotus sell for $3,000,000 at auction and a heavily played Alpha Web sell for $5,000.

Wrapping It Up

I know comparing Magic cards to baseball cards, comic books, and coins is akin to comparing apples and oranges. But it’s a fun exercise in research to see how print runs and values on chase collectibles vary from one hobby to the next. Despite being highly variable, I’ve still taken away a couple interesting observations.

First and foremost, Magic is relatively young. Other hobbies have been around for decades longer, so the rarest and most desirable instances of a collectible from an older hobby tends to be harder to find in nice condition. Thus, even in cases of higher print runs, the chase instance—whether it be a comic book, penny, or baseball card—can be easily more expensive than a rare Alpha Magic card.

Second, the print run on Alpha relatively speaking truly is miniscule. While there’s no direct comparison, a desirable baseball card, coin, or comic book with the print run of an Alpha rare would cost a small fortune, often reaching seven figures if the condition is decent. This really underscores the fact that, while the recent graded 10 Alpha Black Lotus recently sold for north of $500,000, there’s still plenty of upside on such an investment.

Even heavily played, less-than-playable Alpha rares will seem criminally cheap if Magic sticks around for another ten to twenty years. Any collectible with a print run of less than 1,100 is going to carry a hefty price tag.

That leads me to my third and final conclusion: Alpha rares are relatively cheap. This is especially true considering the recent surge in prices of other old cards from Magic’s earliest sets. While we’re at it, we can include Beta rares and the Reserved List Arabian Nights and Legends cards, which also have relatively small print runs and can never be reprinted.

While everything feels overpriced now thanks to recent buyouts and the like, I have to imagine that, should Magic be around twenty years from now, these prices will all seem like steals. Only time will tell, but I remain bullish and optimistic these collectibles will make for wise investments for years to come.

Is It Okay to Spend Your Stimulus Check on Magic Cards?

Posted on by Joseph Davidson

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I was recently witness to a rather wild Discord conversation discussing the topic of whether or not it was okay to spend your stimulus check on Magic cards - which, until it was brought to my attention that there was a conversation on the way to getting out of hand, was a topic that hadn't even crossed my mind. It got me thinking, and so, naturally, that's what this week's article is going to cover.

First, I want to apologize to our international audience - I know that the stimulus check topic is largely just USA-based at the moment, so a lot of this article is going to exclude you. Hopefully, some of it will still be of some interest. Second, I want to mention that I'm going to try really hard to not get "too political" here - I don't want to fight with anyone - but by its very nature, this topic is political so that will be hard to avoid. I should state that this is all just my opinion and does not reflect the opinions of my employer.

So, is it okay to spend your stimulus check on Magic: The Gathering cards? Short answer - yes. 

I would never consider telling someone what to do with their money - that's not my place, and honestly, I don't think that's anyone's place. This is just investment advice from a guy who writes about trading cards on the internet. What we're looking at in this article today is whether or not you're in a place to be investing that money and what kind of Magic cards you should be picking up if you feel like you're in a good place to be doing so.

Cover The Basics First

The Pandemic has been an absolute disaster for just about everyone. The world has changed - plain and simple. People are dying, losing their jobs, and facing all kinds of economic uncertainty. For a lot of families, this stimulus check is going to be completely used for food, lodging, and crucial expenses. There is a common adage when it comes to investing (and gambling), "never risk more than you can lose", and this is something you should think about any time you're looking at investing in Magic finance, not just when something like a stimulus check happens.

Take a look at your budget, think about what happens if this disaster doesn't get better as quickly as we hope, and make sure that you and your family are as secure as possible, and then if you feel secure enough - it's time to stimulate the economy with some Magic purchases!

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The Best Pick-Ups

If you're looking to spend some of that stimulus money on Magic product, I highly encourage you to start with your LGS or members of your community who run online sales through something like TCGPlayer or Twitter. I know at the start of the Pandemic I was in a super tight spot and the sales from my small TCGPlayer store went a long way to ensuring rent was paid and food made it to the table. In my opinion, spending your extra stimulus money with small business owners is one of the absolute best things you could do with it. So, for those looking to invest that money into singles - what are the best things you could be picking up?

  • Reserved List Staples - this is the biggest and most obvious one. If you can find good deals on them, this is the perfect time to work on finishing your collection of duals. Prioritizing ones with blue in them has historically been a good call - so keep an eye out for Tropical Islands, Underground Seas, Volcanic Islands, and Tundras. If you're looking for great advice when it comes to reserved list action, I'd highly recommend reading over some of Sigmund's latest articles - he's my go-to resource for Old School knowledge and I always look forward to his weekly article here.
  • Non-foil Eternal Bling - I write about this fairly often, but I think picking up alternate/full art versions of cards that see a good amount of play in eternal formats before paper play resumes in the United States is a smart call. Competitive Magic players will be rushing to pick up cards for their paper decks once large paper events come back and will largely be avoiding foils due to the curling issues. The new trend of awesome non-foil alternate and full art versions of these cards being printed is one of the best ways for these players to add "bling" to their decks without having to worry about being disqualified, and I think they'll see decent price increases once paper play comes back in a big way.
  • Missing Pieces - speaking of paper play coming back, if you're missing any key pieces of your paper decks - now is a great time to pick those up. Plus, the feeling of completing your decks and looking forward to paper play coming back could be a nice little serotonin boost in these dark times.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Tropical Island

Treat Yourself - You Deserve It

Look - the world has been going through some incredibly dark, incredibly stressful times. People have been stuck in quarantine or distancing for over a year now. Combine that with all of the incredible losses we have been suffering and it makes sense that your mental health has taken quite the beating lately. If you are really struggling and have the option, I'm a huge proponent of seeking out a professional to speak with about what you're going through.

I know that's not an option for everyone and either way I think it's important for us as human beings to fight for every little sliver of joy we can find in dark times like these. So if you can, I think setting aside even a little bit of the stimulus for a treat for yourself or your family is a great decision. Even if that's just a booster pack or two, a fresh pair of kicks, or a couple of affordable singles for your favorite Commander deck, setting aside a little bit of stimulus money to treat yourself is okay and you shouldn't feel guilty for it.

No matter what you do with your stimulus, I want you to know that it's okay to be feeling bad right now. The Pandemic isn't over for everyone and there's a lot of work to be done still before we (especially in the USA) can get back to normal. Many of us are feeling like we've lost a year of our lives, feeling bad is natural. Just remember that you're amazing, you're doing a good job, and if hold on it'll get better soon.

Take care out there friends, I'll catch you next week! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter, Twitch, YouTube, or in the QS Discord if you'd like to chat Magic!

Is Time Spiral Remastered Too Good to Be True?

Posted on by Kai Haas

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With the release of Time Spiral Remastered almost upon us, possibly already out by the time you may read this, the looming question has yet to be definitively answered: will TSR hold its value, go up, or go down? If you read my original article on TSR, you may see that the expected value is incredibly high. Even with accounting for inflated prices ahead of release, the value is incredible. Someone made a Booster Box opening simulator, using officially stated pull rates, and the average EV was off the charts.

I spun the wheel a couple of hundred times, and it just seems too good to be true. The singles value at preorder is insane, with 11 non-foil cards worth more than $20 dollars, 6 of those being timeshifted, and 24 cards above $10, and 14 of those being timeshifted. Foil prices are even more insane, with prices ranging from $6 to over $300. With the normal value of the set being already a home run and the timeshifted foils, generally, at a rate of 1-2 per box being the hit or miss added value that they are, it's safe to assume that prices have to adjust.

Sealed Product

Over the course of the past week or two, prices that were considered by some to already be too expensive at the early prices, have risen drastically. Boxes ranged from $150 (rarely) to $190 in the first day or two, they quickly jumped to $200 to $210 a box, and are currently sitting at $235 on TCGplayer, almost $250 on Amazon, $225 at Card Kingdom (limit of 5 per customer) and Star City Games at $225 (26 boxes left at the time of writing).

The main question regarding value consisted of a couple of possible outcomes. The price of the box would fall, and so would the singles, the price of the box would rise, and the singles would hold, or the boxes would stay the same, and the singles would go as the market willed them to. With more time bringing further clarity, the prices of the sealed product have risen, likely solidifying the prices of singles to a certain degree. There is a likelihood that singles will drop and bring the price of sealed down with it, but that is something we will have to take a look at.

Singles

The preorder prices for singles tend to be higher than the actual value, this is something that is not a new idea. What is a new revelation is that preorder prices may be closer to the actual value than preorders may historically suggest. The prices also usually start to shift significantly lower as stores start to open boxes and the real-world rarity of the cards in the set is discovered and prices are adjusted, but the prices don't seem to be shifting downwards too drastically.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

This could suggest that as stores are opening boxes, the discovery is being made that these cards are valued at an appropriate price relative to rarity. My hypothesis is that the single values right now are not too far off from the actual value, and I do not see the sealed prices being too bad either. This could easily be the most valuable set for singles we have seen in a long while, or it could all crash and burn, to wait and see is the path to that answer.

Possible Crash

I have heard conflicting information on the supply of Time Spiral Remastered. Some people saying the supply is record-setting with how little they are receiving, while others noting nothing out of the ordinary about supply. The one statement that is few and far between is an oversupply of sealed products. I have seen supply compared to that of Modern Horizons, with people expecting supply to be flooded, and when the extra supply never came, and the true scarcity of the remaining boxes revealed, the rapid devaluation never occurred. Of course, we have no unified data on the print run other than the limited print run of the set, so all we can do is speculate with both ears to the ground, and hope for the best. Personally, based on my own experiences and perception of the information that we do have, I believe that the supply will be clinched.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Negation

The possibility of the supply being held up by Amazon sellers is unlikely at this point, with the prices of Amazon boxes being some of, if not the highest price point for any sealed boxes of TSR. I believe while a crash is unlikely, a large-scale panic over the possibility of such would be the largest reason for such a possibility.  A calm and responsible market is responsible for the growth we have seen over the past couple of weeks, and a calm and responsible market will likely be responsible for the continued stability of the product in the future. If people get scared and try to liquidate any remaining product, we could see a short-term devaluation of the sealed product of TSR likely following by a longer-term price correction leading to a return to at least 3/4 of the original price for the sealed product.

I predict a lot larger of an impact on singles in the event of a possible crash, with prices across the board dropping a lot more substantially, and recovering a lot slower. This should be no cause for concern, however, as the likely hood of a high supply preventing a long-term regrowth is unlikely, considering all signs seem to point to an overall lower or sub-par supply, if not a large shortage(unlikely in my personal opinion).

The Takeaway

With the release of TSR almost upon us, this is a critical time for the value of this product. The make or break decisions made by the cogs of this machine, no matter how minute, are made in the critical first week or two. Being responsible with your own position, and encouraging others to do the same might just allow TSR to be a massive home-run for investors and players alike. Be vigilant of the market, and be patient. Making an impulsive choice right now could not just influence your immediate profits, but others as well, and not to mention your and other's profits in the future. In the end, make the decision that feels right, and be confident.

What doesn't grow, dies, and what dies grows the smart investors sell binder. Have a great day, relax, maybe draft TSR if that fits your fancy, and as always don't forget to invest in carboard.

 

Remember Me: Forgotten Lessons

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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The time after a set release or a major ban is always exciting. The format is in flux, the metagame undefined, and everything seems playable. This is even more true right now, thanks to the ban taking away a metagame pillar. This has in turn renewed interest in Modern, bringing an influx of players and content creators. Which is a good thing: more interest and more players in Modern leads to more attention from Wizards, more competitive play, and also more deckbuilding and innovation. Otherwise, it all goes stale.

However, it can also be infuriating. Watching an inexperienced player make a mistake will always annoy seasoned veterans, no matter what we'd actually admit. Such anger can still be leveraged productively, specifically by channeling it into helping said new players learn and improve. What is far harder to deal with is experienced players making mistakes when they definitely know better. Especially if they've previously lectured others about said mistake. And it gets downright galling when this is a well-known mistake that has been discussed and dissected extensively by the community for years.

And yet, here I've been watching streamers, general content creators, and even competitors in high-level events acting like they've forgotten basic format knowledge. Which is certainly possible, given how distorted Modern's been since Modern Horizons. So today I'll be venting reminding everyone about the most common mistakes and how to avoid them.

What Isn't a Mistake

I feel I need to define what I'm discussing. A decision or line of play that doesn't work out is not inherently a mistake. A lapse in judgement or missed interaction is a mistake, but forgivable. Magic is a game of imperfect information and great complexity. Everyone makes mistakes and I'm not calling anyone out for being human. Sometimes a calculated risk is the only route to victory and you did the math wrong. Mistakes happen; they're nothing to get angry about. All we can do is try to do better next time.

What grinds my gears is lapses in knowledge. This is when a player discusses and/or makes a really dumb play having previously demonstrated that they know better or that they really should know better. There are two scenarios for this, and encountering either triggers me. The first is the equivalent of studying a specific question, writing the correct answer down on a study guide, checking that guide before the test, and walking out of class and commenting on that right answer. And yet when the test comes back you still answered that exact question wrong. There's no explanation or excuse; just brain stop no think good me make oops.

The second, which I find more offensive in many respects, is ignorance. They should know better; they've seen it before, there were resources available from which to learn, and/or they were told to be wary and they just. Didn't. Bother. It's the equivalent of walking into a test completely unprepared and just staring at the questions and guessing. Did you just blow off studying or did you incorrectly think you wouldn't need it? It was all there for the taking, and you punted it away.

These are the situations I'm focusing on. Things that Modern players really should know, but seem to have forgotten. What should be common knowledge because they're all over the internet for the finding. So it falls to me to remind everyone.

Mulligan Correctly

Jordan seems to go over this constantly (he's not the only one, but he specifically asked me to include this one), but most Modern players don't mulligan enough. Admittedly, mulliganing is a very tricky part of the game. Even with the best heuristics, practice, and strategy it's easy to get into grey areas. But that's no excuse. The London Mulligan has reduced the mulligan penalty enough that there's no excuse for keeping a borderline seven when there's a perfectly good six a-waiting. Between general power creep and deck refinement, the difference between most deck's average hands and their best has skyrocketed. As a result, the reward for mulliganing has increased independently of the London Mulligan's benefits. Don't be afraid to go for the big payout.

Unless you are the Jundfather and every card in your deck is as good as every other card in your deck, of course. Then you can (and Reid does) afford to mulligan less game 1. In that specific circumstance, the difference between the best hand (in a vacuum, anyway) and the second best one is small. In turn, that makes an extra card more valuable than the chance for a marginally better one. However, most decks aren't straight Jund or even Jund-like anymore. They're closer in composition and spirit to Grixis Death's Shadow or Izzet Prowess. They're generally powerful, but have certain openers that are far better than others. As a result, a random extra is less valuable than getting the right card early. And so they should try more often to get that better seven.

The problem most players have is their attachment to card advantage. More cards better than fewer is a fundamental lesson and usually the first piece of theory players learn. It's hard to overcome the attachment. But that's no excuse. Modern has never been the place to obsess over card advantage, and the format is getting faster and more powerful. Playing mediocre at best hands is increasingly likely to cost games. It's better to take a shot on a great hand than trudge along with a poor hand. I've struggled with this too, though playing decks that need to mulligan aggressively helped.

The Tron Mistake

What there is no excuse for is not mulliganing enough with a specific-card deck. While this applies to combo decks in general, it is particularly unforgiveable when it comes to Tron. This is the deck that everyone knew benefitted most from the London Mulligan when it was implemented, and yet I still encounter Tron players who don't mulligan for that turn 3 Tron. What makes it so frustrating is that anyone who's played Modern for a decent length of time has lost to Tron after they mulliganed to three. Maybe more than once. And yet plenty of Tron players still settle for hands that can't hit Tron on turn three. Even Jim Davis, who pretty much wrote the book on Tron mulligans, doesn't always follow his own advice (though he does admit his failings).

Now, in fairness, Tron hasn't been consistently popular these past two years. With the influx of players and Tron's relatively low price online, it is possible that many of the Tron players I've hit in Leagues or seen streamers play have been rookies. However, this is too pervasive a problem to shrug off so easily. The internet exists, and a simple search will produce a ton of Tron guides, every one of which will stress how important aggressive mulligans are. This is an easily correctable mistake, but it's one that players refuse to learn. It's time for players to overcome the fear, do their homework, and get to mulliganing correctly. Especially the Tron players.

Correctly Removing Infect

With that Tron bit off my chest, here's the mistake that actually got me on this thread: players have forgotten their removal sequencing against Infect. I realize that it's been five years since Infect was at its height, but it's never left the metagame. Players therefore already have the incentive to keep up their knowledge and skill playing against it. And yet I've seen a number of streamers punt badly against Infect. (No, I can't link a specific one because I can't remember who it was and I've already spent an embarrassing amount of time looking for the vods.) The problem seems to be complacency. Infect doesn't show up as a top tier deck on MTGGoldfish or MTGTop8 and is buried in Tier 3 in our rankings. Thus, players think that Infect isn't a threat and have allowed themselves to forget. This is a terrible mistake.

Players forget that Infect was only top tier in late 2016, not the entire year. It was hit as hard as everyone else by Eldrazi Winter, but up until Blossoming Defense was printed, it was highly volatile. Prior to 2016, and even after Gitaxian Probe was banned, Infect was a metagame call. I recall Todd Anderson winning SCG Cincinnati with Infect and saying after the fact that the only reason he did was that the metagame was primed for an Infect run thanks to players being overly focused on Twin. It was never supposed to be a highly played deck. Instead, it's something you pull out when the moment is ripe. And I've seen it happening.

Correct Counterplay

So here's your reminder: given a choice, don't try and remove an Infect creature on the opponent's turn prior to combat damage. Sometimes all you have is Condemn and sometimes Infect presents lethal, forcing interaction. It happens, and trying not to die is not a mistake. However, if the plan is to Bolt Infect during combat, that plan will only succeed if Infect is in dire straights. Remember, this is a deck that works by pumping up its creatures, and Bolting during combat lets Infect gain extra value from its pump spells. As letting Infect getting value from pump spells quickly translates into a dead you, it is something to strenuously avoid!

And the coast isn't clear for unequivocal removal either. Players forget that Infect runs 6-8 of Vines of Vastwood and Blossoming Defense with a few Snakeskin Veils for good measure. Playing any removal during combat is an invitation to let the opponent not only counter your spell but get in extra, potentially lethal damage. And players complain about Veil of Summer.

The correct time to remove an Infect creature is from the End of Combat step until your End of Turn. Doing so puts the ball in Infect's court to play a pump spell first, limiting their ability to use hexproofing to protect their creatures during combat. Plus, if they do Vines their creature, doing it outside combat means it's just a counterspell, and not a pump spell too. The best thing that players can do is force Infect to use its limited pump when the pump doesn't translate into damage. Also, never wait to remove an Infect creature.  Unlike normal damage, there is no "healing" poison, so you can't get the damage back. Just kill it on your own turn.

Thoughtseize Threat Misevaluation

The final topic for today is a reminder about Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek: these cards answer everything. Choose their targets accordingly. I realize that this seems obvious, but the number of streamers I've seen talk themselves out of taking the threat they can't otherwise answer for fear of something worse is very large. I'm going to specifically call out Cooper the Red because he is the most recent I saw, but I promise you, look at any Youtube of a Thoughtseize deck and it will happen. In the linked clip, Cooper is Inquisitioning Death and Taxes and sees a nearly ideal hand. Rather than taking either protection creature, he takes Stoneforge Mystic and loses, never casting Scourge of the Skyclaves. Now, he is in a very bad spot in a bad matchup, but his mistake still cost dearly.

The mistake Cooper and all the other streamers have made is a conflation mistake. It's a known correct play to only take a duplicate copy if you can Inquisition again for the other one. Taking a unique card is always the best play, given the choice. When Cooper saw Auriok Champion and Mirran Crusader, he immediately lumped them together as unanswerable protection creatures. Since he couldn't take both, he took the next best card. What he forgot is that he had far more answers to Crusader and Stoneforge than Champion. Crusader dies to Bolt, Seal of Fire, and Kozilek's Return, and he has Assassin's Trophy and Kolaghan's Command for Mystic. Once it lands, only Tarmogoyf and Return answer Champion. Plus, Champion's life gain keeps Scourge from being cast. He needed to take Champion to have a chance, but didn't make the play.

Answer What Kills You

In general, it is better to answer something that will kill you rather than something that might kill you. I frequently see players worry about late-game cards rather than the short and it costs them. Jace, the Mind Sculptor is far more flashy and obviously powerful than Delver of Secrets, but an unanswered Delver kills before Jace matters. I see too many discard players lose to threats they could and should have discarded because they thought they'd draw an answer before it was too late. But they didn't, and so all the card advantage they removed wouldn't have mattered anyway. It's always tempting to hit the card that's strongest in a vacuum, but the correct play is to identify the chief threat given the flow or pattern of the current game.

Learn and Improve

Ok, I'm feeling better. There are definitely more things I could lecture on, but there's only so much time in a day. The main takeaway I want to emphasize is that none of us are ever above study. Getting better is as much learning new lessons as holding on to old ones. The information is out there for the taking. Take it.

Will History Repeat Itself This Time?

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Here we are: the Reserved List cards all rallied as buyouts ensued, TCGplayer and vendors across the internet sold out of Magic’s earliest cards, and buylist increases had to follow for these stores to restock. Now those buylist increases are starting to bear fruit, and cards are entered into vendor inventory at record high retail prices.

I’ve seen this show before.

When this happened in 2017-2018, the sky-high prices didn’t hold. Vendors had a tough time moving unplayable or fringe playable Reserved List and Old School cards. Even some of the bigger cards, such as Library of Alexandria, had a price tag that could not be justified. Inventory sat, vendors couldn’t move everything at the “new price”, and eventually there was a retracement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

Will the buyout craze of late 2020 / early 2021 follow the same pattern? Doesn’t history repeat itself? It’s not nearly so simple this time around. This week, Sig will explore the similarities and differences this time versus the last, and shares his thoughts on how best to position no matter the outcome.

The Ways This Is Just Like Last Time

I’ve been following Card Kingdom’s buylist even more than normal throughout this buyout season. However their algorithms work, they tend to have dynamic, reactionary changes to their buy prices as the market fluctuates. Some of the cards on their buylist have followed a very similar pattern as during the 2017-2018 buyout event.

For example, consider Revised Dual Lands. If you follow me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve been watching buy prices on these particularly closely. They were climbing day in and day out, and some where hypothesizing their buy prices would peak when they were parity to offers seen from Japanese vendors.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

In reality, this has not played out (yet, at least). At one point, top buy price on a Revised Underground Sea peaked at $780. Now, the top buy price is down to $577.50 according to Trader Tools. Card Kingdom’s buy price isn’t even best in class anymore. Their offer: $550. Star City Games has been aggressively playing in the Dual Land market as well—remember when SCG buyer Ben Bleiweiss tweeted out their buy prices on Duals back on February 1st?

Since tweeting this a month and a half ago, Star City’s buy price on Underground Sea dropped to $700. Volcanic Island dropped to $650 from $700. Similarly, Tropical Island dropped $50. A couple others dropped as well, though it’s worth noting their buy price on Taiga and Bayou actually increased $25 since.

Why have buy prices, particularly at Card Kingdom, dropped so much? Look no further than their inventory (and their sell prices)…

Do not be deceived by their near mint inventory. While they may not get many near mint Duals in stock, they have a bunch of played ones. For example, Card Kingdom has eight EX, VG, and G copies of Underground Sea listed. Though oftentimes I see them cap their quantity restocked at eight per condition—if I had to bet, I’d guess they had more waiting in the wing.

At these prices, are you really surprised to see that they have so many in stock? They’re not exactly going to fly off the shelf at these prices. Card Kingdom managed to up their prices so much to ensure they maintain some inventory. But even with trade credit, I cannot advocate buying an HP Underground Sea for $769.99 when there are MP copies on TCGplayer for 5% less.

Beyond Dual Lands, I’ve also observed vendors slowly restocking other high-end cards as well. Card Kingdom has finally started restocking Collectors’ Edition Power at new, higher prices. They have over a dozen copies of Bazaar of Baghdad restocked ($3009.99 for HP!), a few Library of Alexandrias ($2449.99 for HP) and even two The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales ($4549.99 for HP).

Star City Games and ABUGames have also been adjusting buy and sell prices in kind, though a little more slowly. At one point Star City Games literally had zero Arabian Nights cards in stock. Now they have two: a heavily played Drop of Honey for $599.99 and a near mint Erhnam Djinn for $699.99.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drop of Honey

It’s not much, but it’s only the beginning. We saw the same restocking and price adjustment patterns in 2018, and ultimately it led to a retracement and two-year stabilization of market prices.

The Ways This Looks Different From Last Time

These are fairly compelling observations that lead me to believe prices may be peaking, and we could be in for another 1-2 year period of consolidation as prices correct. After all, are players really eager to hand over a thousand bucks for a nice Underground Sea? Can nice Library of Alexandrias really sell quickly at $4000? Can heavily played Black Lotuses really sell north of $10,000?

Well, at least in some cases, the answer is “yes”. Just check out eBay’s completed listings on Black Lotus, for example:

Some cards are still moving even at their new price points. Browsing Card Kingdom’s Unlimited inventory, I see that they have adequately restocked many cards in the $100-$500 range, usually with much higher prices than a couple months ago. But as of the morning of Sunday, March 14th, they have exactly one piece of Unlimited Power in stock: an EX Black Lotus listed at $20799.99.

I remember seeing Card Kingdom restock a few other pieces of Power at new prices just last week, but every other one sold. They also have thin stock on blue Unlimited Dual Lands, and prices may have to adjust even higher to generate inventory for the vendor.

Despite aggressively higher buy prices, Card Kingdom still struggles to keep many high-end cards in stock, especially the more desirable / playable cards from Legends and Arabian Nights. While I have observed some buy prices cooling off in recent weeks, this hasn’t been universal across the board, and there are plenty of cards Card Kingdom still offers all-time high numbers to buy. This includes cards like Moat, Eureka, and Guardian Beast.

This tells me that, while some prices may be stabilizing, other cards may be breaking rank and will continue to climb.

The Wild Card: Stimulus and the Collectibles Boom

On the one hand, I’m tempted to look past the smattering of cards that continue to sell at higher prices, call them anomalies, and claim that all prices will be cooling off in the coming months. But there are too many external factors at play that could prevent this outcome.

First and foremost, congress just passed another stimulus package bill. Now many Americans will be receiving yet another stimulus check in the amount of $1400, on top of additional unemployment benefits and child tax credits. This is going to pump yet even more cash into the economy; some Magic players who don’t need that cash infusion to buy food and shelter could very well spend it on cardboard, even at higher prices. Don’t forget we’re also in the middle of tax refund season!

Then there’s cryptocurrency hype, and the fact that Bitcoin is accelerating higher as it crashes through previous all-time highs. Last weekend, Bitcoin broke through $60,000…I have to imagine at least some crypto profits will filter into the already-hot collectibles market. Pokemon cards are also soaring, and this could draw more attention towards the lesser-known Magic market.

And of course, I can’t discuss the importance of collectibles and nostalgia without mentioning COVID-19. People are stuck at home (for over a year now), largely unable to travel and spend their money on experiential things. But with excess cash from the government, what better thing to do than to enjoy some of the nostalgic collectibles we remember as a child? It’s the same reason why some classic video games are also climbing in price lately.

The pandemic continues to shut down large organized events, such as MagicFests, and that continues to hamper exchange of cards. Some vendors are literally resorting to driving / flying around the country to purchase collections in person in order to restock their inventory. Michael Caffrey of Tails of Adventure has been vocal about this on Twitter.

As long as large events remain shut down, vendors will continue to struggle to restock some cards. As long as that remains the case, prices could be sticky at their new levels.

Wrapping It Up

If there was no COVID-19, I would readily say that Magic prices are peaking and it’s time to sell if you intend to cash out because we are due for a one- or two-year consolidation period. That outcome is still on the table, but there are some external factors really getting in the way.

COVID-19 shut down large events, making it difficult for vendors to restock. A quick glance at inventory on a card from Arabian Nights, such as Elephant Graveyard, is all you need to understand just how few copies are flowing in this market.

While supply remains constrained, demand stays strong, in part thanks to the government’s willingness to give many Americans handouts in the form of $1400 checks. This will certainly pump more cash into the Magic market, keeping prices inflated. After all, what else is there to do during a pandemic?

These external factors give me pause, and cause me to question which direction the market is going to turn this Spring. On the one hand, some buy prices have tapered off as vendors have been able to restock key cards, such as Dual Lands. If the new inventory doesn’t move at higher prices, we’ll see a softening in the market.

On the other hand, perhaps the new round of stimulus, combined with tax refunds, will infuse enough cash to overcome the restocked inventory and create a fresh new wave of demand.

Either way, I am going to watch this market extremely closely, monitoring pricing trends on Card Kingdom’s site as a surrogate for the overall market. I have been strategically buying cards here and there, particularly Alpha rares sub-$200 (there won’t be such a thing eventually) and playable Beta rares at decent prices (there pretty much aren’t any left). I’m holding anything Old School that has little or no inventory on TCGplayer in case vendors sell out and prices tick higher yet again.

At the end of the day, agility is going to be key here. If you are the buy-and-hold type, you’re likely fine to just throw your Old School cards in a box for another five years. But with my end goal of funding two college tuitions for my children, I’m going to be actively looking for chances to trim the collection when I see prices hit local maxima. If your goal is to raise cash from Magic to fund other things in life, you may consider doing the same.

Time Spiral Speculations: Sealed and Singles

Posted on by Kai Haas

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With the new Time Spiral Remastered coming out later this month, it begs the question, what will the sets value be like? That question even further complicates with the distinction between singles and sealed product. Thankfully, Time Spiral Remastered only has one option for sealed products, that being a simple draft booster box, making it considerably easier to make estimates. No "Double-Triple Collector VIP Set Boosters" for this one. Without further ado, let's check out the information we have, and evaluate what this might mean for this poorly timed draft experience.

Sealed Product

The only available sealed product for this set is the draft booster box. The box contains 36 booster packs of 15 cards each(16 if you count the marketing card). Currently, the boxes are sitting on Amazon for around $199. If you look on TCGPlayer you'll find similar prices at $196 per box. If you look at a whole case, TCG is $1196.97 for a case of six boxes. If you look at eBay, the cheapest sold listing is $170 plus shipping. Newer listings with boxes left are sitting at the low end around $185 to $210.

I've heard some chatter around the internet about possible early shortages, some suggesting an extremely limited supply, while others state that the bulk of the boxes are being reallocated to Amazon and other big box stores, in an increase to previous standards. It's impossible to 100% predict how the supply is going to pan out, but I would guess that it is going to be similar to a Mystery Booster-style situation. For Mystery Booster there are currently, there are 13 listings on TCGPlayer, with the lowest price being $225. It has been out for around a year, and if we all remember the WOTC initiative to help stores through the pandemic by offering free boxes totaling $10,000,000, the supply might be slightly more than we might be getting now for TSR. This could mean that TSR boxes could see higher short-term value than Mystery Booster, and even very likely a higher long-term value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Bloom

One important aspect to consider is the demand for this for Drafting. This is being released in a period of time where most LGS aren't offering any in-store play, it would be reasonable to assume that a majority of the orders and purchases early on are not going to be for the purpose of drafting or sealed play. I would reason that in a couple of months when in-store play and other in-person events and gatherings start to open up, we will see a lot more demand for TSR sealed. With the majority of purchases likely not coming from players for the purpose of playing, the bulk of the product might be held in the hands of speculators and investors.

We could see one of two things happening with that situation. If people hold onto the majority of their boxes within the first few months, depending on how the product is introduced to the market after demand rises, we could see a relatively flooded market at first with low prices, and a possible retrace to very high prices long-term as supply dwindles, or we could see people slowly introducing their product into the market, allowing for consistently high prices across sellers, and an eventual rise in value. The core differences in these situations are the rate at which the product is being dispersed, and subsequently held or removed from the market permanently.

A faster early on dispersal rate could bring higher prices earlier, at the cost of the profits for sales during that period of high supply, while a lower dispersal rate would allow for higher profit margins during the initial period of high demand while lengthening that period by controlling the rate at which the product is being sold. Knowing that the likely case might just be a faster dispersal to promote higher liquidity would suggest that holding on to the bulk of your product early on may be a smart decision but at the end of the day that will be up to you to decide.

Singles

With Time Spiral Remastered being a reprint set, it makes it a lot easier to try to predict the prices of singles, and perhaps the boxes estimate value. Let's get into the data. In the main set, we have 289 total cards, all reprints from the original Time Spiral block. This includes 121 commons, 100 uncommon, 53 rares, 15 mythic rares. There is an additional sheet of timeshifted cards that will appear at a rate of one card per pack. There are also foil timeshifted cards that will be included, but otherwise, all timeshifted cards have an equal rarity. The only way to get singles from TSR is through the draft booster boxes, reducing the chance that certain cards will be devalued by higher pull rates in contrasting products.

The selection of normal singles is very promising, with notable reprints including Pact of Negation at $31.95, Sliver Legion at $60, and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth at $25. It's no surprise that some of the timeshifted cards are among the highest preorder prices for these cards, despite the value of the original card. The current highest preorder price is for the timeshifted Thoughtseize at $68, with Chalice of the Void sitting at around $55. If we compare the effect on reprints to these cards in the past, we can get a picture of what this reprint may look like. I figured a good example to look at might be the card Thoughtseize, as it has several previous reprints, and sees a good amount of play in formats that it is legal in.

With this information, you can gather generally that with each reprint, the price tended to drop, however with the number of cards on the market increasing beyond a point of simple healthy availability, the price trended lower and lower over time. This appears to be congruent with other modern playable reprints in this set with the notable exception of Pact of Negation, but this may not be true with the other cards being reprinted, so let us take a look at Sliver Legion, which has seen one reprint, however only as a judge promo. This lower quantity card may benefit from a reprint, with more interest arising, it could draw attention to the modern-frame printing as an alternative to the Core Set 2015 frame.

Sliver Legion only being reprinted once is a very important thing to consider. Especially considering the reprint was a very limited Judge Promo, which, as the name suggests, is only given out to current Magic Judges. Another important thing to consider is the estimated value of the box. While we are still in the preorder period, something to consider is that there are 3 major sources of possible big hits. Timeshifted cards are standing out to me considerably. About 60% are preordering for above $3, around 50% above $5, and about 10% above $10.

Normal Rares are also looking not too bad, with around 1/3 being worth more than $5, and 10% worth more than $10. Especially withPact of Negation being in the rare slot, and a total of 53 rares in the set, double rares should occur not too rarely, as you could theoretically receive 2/3's of the set in one box. Mythic pull rates were recently changed from 1/8 to 1/7.4, and while this may not seem like a very large change, it actually changes things a lot. A majority of boxes will now lean towards 5 mythic boxes, which when we go to look at the mythic sheet, adds a large amount of additional value. A little under half of the Mythic's in the set are currently priced at over $15 at preorder, with another 25% of the sheet consisting of cards $5 or more. If we account for foils we now have added value.

In every box, we should see generally between 1 and 2 foil timeshifted cards. We don't have much information on pricing for foil timeshifted cards, however, we have a few cards priced out for preorder. Chalice of the Void is seeing foil prices at $300, while Ponder is seeing $125. Now at this point, you should be a little concerned that I mention the preorder prices so frequently, as preorder prices are very often overvalued and not accurate depictions of the price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chalice of the Void

Taking this into with the recent preorder price comparisons, a good rule of thumb is to mark everything down a little under half. Sometimes a bit over, but not by enough to make too much of a difference. If you were to pull a box with about 25% of the cards in each category being the middle range, and cutting the prices in half, you should still be left with about $190-200 in value. If you pull a big hitter foil, you could kiss the price tag goodbye. Of course, the chances of that are well under what would be considered reasonable.

With the boxes themselves being only $200 right now, something has to go. With the supply possibly being possibly partially distributed in large retailers and online, we could see both. It could go down in either or both, depending on the supply. It's all about the supply. I will be going more in-depth in an article coming out later this week, so if you are interested keep an eye out.

The Takeaway

With more information likely coming closer to release, we can continue to evaluate as time goes on. I would be keeping a very close eye on this product. Hindsight is 20/20, and Future Sight is coincidently part of the Time Spiral block. Have a great day, be smart, and invest in cardboard.

Testing Hypergenesis: Qualitative Data and Conclusion

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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And now, to wrap things up. I've talked about the setup and the hard data, but that doesn't tell the whole story. It's usually the intangible or at least unquantifiable observations that most inform decisions. I made a number of observations and ancillary impacts during my testing that changed how I see Hypergenesis. Today, I'll be sharing those insights and my conclusions. The data is fairly clear about what to expect from Hypergenesis, but it didn't capture the really troubling aspect.

On Power

So the most obvious question is the power. Is Hypergenesis too strong for Modern? On the one hand, the data clearly showed that Hypergenesis wins more than Neoform. Which isn't saying much; Neoform's been around for years with no real metagame impact, so a better version sounds harmless. Such a conclusion is reinforced by Hypergenesis lacking a truly favorable matchup in my sample. It has a very powerful and fast combo, but gets disrupted left and right. And even against the noninteractive decks, the matchup was even at best.

However, I feel the data is misleading. Not that the data is wrong or untrue, but the experience I gained during the test tells me I misbuilt the deck enough to affect the results. I got a pretty good number of turn 1 kills, but it should have been higher. I frequently had hands where I had everything for an actual turn 1 win except Violent Outburst. Demonic Dread requires a creature to target, which will only happen turn 1 on the play with Forbidden Orchard. The odds aren't great, but it's not the worst problem. The worst is that Ardent Plea cannot kill turn 1 on the play, as there's no way to make 1WU in the deck before turn 2 because cascade prevents it from running Manamorphose or Wild Cantor.

Subsequently, I had to rage at many hands that would have killed with Outburst, and a few with Dread but couldn't thanks to Plea. I've done some testing with the same deck since, and replacing Plea with Bloodbraid Elf appears the right call. Which tells me that I hamstrung Hypergenesis. Consequently, I think the actual win percentage in the test was lower than what it would be if unbanned. There's more power in the shell than I harnessed.

An Important Lesson

And then there's the issue of Tibalt's Trickery. That deck played similarly to Hypergenesis, but only dropped one creature. Subsequently, it was more explosive, but not necessarily more powerful. It wasn't really doing anything in Modern, but it is not and may never be clear if it could have. Tibalt, Cosmic Imposter was so dominant that it may have covered up Trickery's real power. Wizards feared that, anyway, which is why Trickery was banned. However, that debacle does suggest that a similar deck would be too good.

Admittedly, there are more ways to stop Hypergenesis than Trickery. Chalice of the Void for 0 and Containment Priest spring to mind, but a resolved Hypergenesis also lets Ensnaring Bridge hit play and stop the shenanigans. I'm not sure that makes up for the gameplay problems, but it also isn't nothing. I think that Wizards has made its position very clear, but that doesn't mean either Trickery or Hypergenesis are too strong in a vacuum.

The Unexpected Key

That said, Hypergenesis's win rate would unequivocally have been lower if I wasn't running Chancellor of the Annex. From Legacy experience I knew the card would be very good. There's nothing better at defending against a Force of Negation turn 1 than a revealed Chancellor. However, that was only relevant against 4-Color Omnath, and only occasionally. It also protects against turn 1 discard, but that similarly was a niche use in the test. The real benefit is the general disruption. A revealed Annex Mana Tithes everyone's first play, which puts every deck off their curve. While there are work-arounds, including just throwing away a spell, it was a huge benefit and bought significant time against every deck.

What I didn't expect was how devastating Annex was against Amulet Titan specifically. The test list was just over half land, which meant that a typical hand had less than three spells. Additionally, over half the lands in Amulet come into play tapped. As a result, Annex was often unchallenged until turn 3, which meant that Amulet couldn't deploy a Dryad of the Ilysian Grove or Azuza, Lost but Seeking on curve, which then bought Hypergenesis at least one more turn, and usually two, before Valakut came online. This threw Amulet's game off enough that we discussed at length the value of throwing an otherwise essential Summoner's Pact away just so Amulet could actually play. We even considered boarding in another Engineered Explosives just to throw it at the Tithe.

An interesting note is that Scourge Shadow was the second-most impacted deck, but in an unexpected way. It had the best way to dodge thanks to Mishra's Bauble, but that didn't always line up nicely. Squandering the cantrip hurt. However, the real problem was that Scourge is so mana-tight that it usually had no choice but to throw away a meaningful card. If it didn't, it would be perpetually locked out of the game. And that hurt even more.

Time on My Side

While it doesn't really factor in terms of power, I would like to state for the record that this test was by far the easiest one I've done. Most of this was the deck. As mentioned, it was wrong to try to be fancy with Hypergenesis. I just mulliganed for land, cascade spell, and payoff, then jammed it at the first opportunity. I didn't have to think or stress, which was a huge relief considering how tricky Neoform is, both in terms of piloting and the actual combo. Jamming Violent Outburst was a welcome relief compared to trying to assemble all the bits and pieces of Neoform's combo, and attacking with fatties is much easier than keeping track of all the cards you've drawn and trying to assemble them in exactly the right order to win.

Consequently, this test went faster than the others. I started actually recording data in mid-November and was done by early January. The others took four months at minimum. The entire DnT test took two days. While ease of play was a major factor, the nature of the decks also meant that matches were quickly resolved. Either the glass-cannons went off or they were disrupted into defeat. No back-and-forth; no scraping out a win. The only exceptions were a few games against 4-C Omnath and DnT. In those cases, Hypergenesis went off without dropping Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Progenitus; without the untargetable creatures, Path to Exile was devastating, and bought both decks the time and space they needed to contain whatever was left. However, the vast majority of games only lasted four turns.

A Curious Observation

All that said, I must admit that the most revelatory observation wasn't actually mine. About 60% of the way through testing, the Amulet Titan player observed that Hypergenesis seemed to be winning more on the draw than the play. I hadn't thought about it at all up to that point, but I had noticed that games felt better on the draw than play. Not something quantifiable or even identifiable, I just felt more comfortable on the draw. I checked with the other players, and they confirmed feeling similarly. DnT said they found being on the draw terrifying, and not just because Demonic Dread was more likely to be live. They'd already boarded out Giver of Runes just to make Dread less useful.

With that consensus opinion, I did keep track of subsequent games, and I did win more on the draw than play. Not by a lot, and maybe not enough to statistically evaluate (small overall n of observations). But the bump was definitely present. And felt more decisive than wins on the play. It was late enough in the process that the data doesn't really mean anything, but what data I have and the impressions from the other players does lead me to think that it plausible that Hypergenesis should choose to draw. This is not only completely counterintuitive but also contrary to Neoform's games.

Uncertain Causation

I don't know why drawing appeared to be better for Hypergenesis. I've goldfished a number of times and jammed some test games looking for a reason. It goes against expectations because it's giving up a tempo advantage and giving opponents the opportunity to interact turn 1. However, the impression holds, and I think it's more drastic than expected. The effect is too hard to pin down without significant testing, so I'm not certain that it's statistically provable, but I can't dismiss it either. Current theories include:

A) More Cascade Options

As I've mentioned above, Ardent Plea and Demonic Dread were the weak links in the deck. Plea's mana was wrong for the deck, Dread needs a target and I didn't often open Dread and Forbidden Orchard. Being on the draw helped both problems, the latter most of all. I got more chances to topdeck the Orchard for Dread, plus it gave my opponent the opportunity to play a creature. The latter was helped with mana smoothing and the rare chance when I had the singleton Gemstone Caverns to actually go off turn 1.

B) The Extra Card Is Critical

As much as I praised Annex, the main point of this deck is dropping Emrakul or Progenitus early. There's a reason that having a cascade card, either legend, and mana was a keep regardless of matchup. With no card draw or library manipulation, the extra topdeck is the only way to improve the chances of finding the critical creatures. Barring that, simply having an extra fatty to overwhelm the opponent is pretty good.

C) A Way Around Disruption

Finally, there is something to be said for drawing a card against disruption spells. There's a lot of redundancy in playing 12 cascade spells, and drawing a replacement is huge, particularly against discard.

What About the Ban?

The final thing to discuss is the loss of Simian Spirit Guide. It's a key component because it's half the deck's fast mana. The loss necessarily slows Hypergenesis down, which would make it a far less threatening combo.

Except, what if SSG was just a crutch? What if Hypergenesis isn't actually slowed down? It might have sped up thanks to the ban. Counterintuitive, but it makes sense to me given what I've learned in this test. With a few adjustments, I think that Hypergenesis would be just fine, or maybe better than before.

First, the deck wasn't able to kill as often as it theoretically could because Ardent Plea doesn't mesh with Guide and Chancellor of the Tangle. It was an unsolvable mana conflict. Secondly, the Trickery decks were more explosive but less overwhelming versions of Hypergenesis. However, their cousin, Tibalt Cascade, was the better deck. Thirdly, it appears that Hypergenesis wants to be on the draw.

Putting it Together

The lesson from Tibalt Cascade is what really got me thinking. Toward the end of their reign, the number of Gemstone Caverns were ticking up. The decks needed to go off turn 1 as often as possible, and suddenly it got easier to pull off on the draw. Hypergenesis wants to draw. That should mean that, theoretically, I can replace SSG with a full set of Caverns, plan to draw, and have at least as good odds of going off turn 1 with Cavern, another land, and Tangle. Or maybe better odds because Caverns would be a rainbow land, making it possible to combo off with Ardent Plea turn 1. Exiling a Chancellor you've already revealed mitigates Cavern's card disadvantage, as does the extra topdeck from drawing. There's more risk since Cavern is legendary and useless unless in the opening hand, but maybe the upside is worth it.

My Assessment

I have no problem with Hypergenesis as a fast combo. Modern needs fast and unfair combos to keep slow multicolored sludge decks in check. Unfair combo prevents decks from infinitely durdling and requires decks play interaction, if not maindeck then sideboard, to not just lose to a nontraditional attack. Hypergenesis is better Neoform, and I think Modern can handle better Neoform. Given history, better Neoform is not a high bar.

However, that is true if and only if unfair combo can't win on turn 1 too often. Winning then occasionally is fine, but even Legacy doesn't like consistent turn 1 combos. My data showed that Hypergenesis would win turn 1 more often than Neoform could. I have reason to believe that Hypergenesis' real turn 1 rate should have been higher. And may have increased since the test. My testing also showed that sideboard cards were usually too slow to make or break the matchup. Thus, I believe that unbanning Hypergenesis brings a huge risk to Modern's health. I would recommend keeping it banned out of concern of early wins rather than power level.

Risk Management

Unbans are all about risk vs. reward. Given what I found, I think that the risk posed by Hypergenesis's theoretical speed outweighs the benefit of getting a better Neoform deck. Unless Wizards decides to completely kill off all fast mana in Modern, Hypergenesis is too dangerous to be released.

Triomes, Temples, and Pathways (Oh My!)

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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This week I want to take a brief reprieve from the weekly buyout discussion. Old School cards, random Reserved List cards, and uncommons from Magic’s earliest sets are still hot. I do see some calming down in certain pockets of the market, but we haven’t seen significant retracement yet. I’m sure I’ll be returning to this subject again soon, especially with another direct payment from the government in the works.

In the meantime, I wanted to talk about three groups of newer cards: the mana-fixing lands of Standard.

We’ve seen a wide range of these printed by Wizards in the past, and I have to give Wizards credit: the current mana base consisting of Temples, Triomes, and Pathways (along with Fabled Passage) are well-designed and balanced. All three serve their purpose in the right deck.

But what does this mean from a financial standpoint? This week I’m going to look at the most played lands in a couple formats and try to see where money could potentially be parked for a year for modest, less-volatile returns (relative to all the crazy Reserved List noise).

Triomes

I’ve been a fan of the tri-colored Triomes ever since they came out. In fact, I even speculated on a few copies of the non-foil, Showcase versions myself. (That may seem inconsequential, but realize it takes a lot for me to buy into any newer cards these days). So far, this investment has yielded lukewarm results, but I am still optimistic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zagoth Triome

In terms of playability, I see demand coming from three buckets of players. First, there’s Standard. Granted, there are very few paper events nowadays, but as game shops gradually open there should be an increase in Friday Night Magic Standard tournaments. According to MTG Stocks’ Most Played Cards page, only Zagoth Triome cracks the top 50 (number 27). Despite the modest showing, Zagoth Triome is the most expensive of the group.

Second, there’s Pioneer. This is a format I’ve largely ignored throughout its young history in Magic; it simply does not interest me. But MTG Stocks does track the most played cards from the format, and I see a few Triomes on the list. Ketria Triome is number 20, Raugrin Triome is number 44, and Zagoth Triome is number 49. Modest numbers, again, but this will fuel demand for the cards as well.

Lastly, there’s Commander. This is what gives me the highest hopes for Triomes over a longer time horizon. According to EDH REC, the least played Triome is Raugrin Triome, still shows up in over 9,000 lists. The most played, Zagoth Triome, appears in over 11,000. Any three, four, or five-color deck is going to run these and it’s hard to beat a fetchable land that yields three colors. The cycling is a nice touch for long games where top-decking a land isn’t so useful.

All in all, the Triomes offer a unique set of abilities that will keep these relevant in Commander, and to a lesser extent Pioneer, for the foreseeable future. If you’re looking to buy, you already missed the bottom and optimal entry point. These could climb a bit throughout the rest of their life in Standard, and I like their long-term prospects to an extent. But there will be some pressure on price when their time to rotate out of Standard arrives. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see reprints in future Commander decks. For this reason, I prefer holding the Showcase variants (foil or non-foil).

Core Set 2021 Temples

I know these see at least some play in Standard and Historic; at least they do on Arena. But none crack the top 50 lists on MTG Stocks. That, combined with all their printings, explains their dirt cheap nature. That said, I grabbed a playset of all five Core Set 2021 Temples when the set first came out for $0.35 a copy. Just like with the Triomes, getting in near the bottom paid off.

Now Card Kingdom prices regular, non-foil Temples between $0.49 (Temple of Triumph) and $1.29 (Temple of Silence). Sadly, I’m not sure if there’s much more upside left. At the time of my purchase, $0.35 a Temple seemed like a bottom, especially when considering I was able to buy all 20 from a single vendor to take advantage of free shipping. But will these see much more appreciation throughout their life in Standard given their limited play profile? I’m not so sure.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Silence

The one positive is that these Temples show up in many EDH REC decklists. For example, Temple of Silence appears in 23,824 decks on the site! I know this number doesn’t accurately reflect actual play, but seeing a staggering number like this at least indicates that many players are using these. If Wizards ever stopped reprinting Temples, they would probably gradually climb over time as a result.

Unfortunately, there’s no way of guaranteeing we won’t see Temple reprints in the near future; they seem to have become favorites of Wizards in the Standard environment. Therefore, I have little interest in holding them over the long term. Given how cheap they are, there’s little reason to rush out and sell; but if I can flip these for store credit and a bit of profit, I am inclined to do so. There are just too many other areas appreciating far faster I’d rather park the money. If I played newer formats in paper, I’d likely just hold onto my set of 20, however, so keep this in mind.

Pathways

Last but not least, I want to have a look at the cycle of Pathways across Zendikar Rising and Kaldheim. These seem to be the lands of choice in Standard. Cragcrown Pathway is currently the number 5 most played card in Standard!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cragcrown Pathway / Timbercrown Pathway

Needleverge Pathway is the 12th most played card in Standard, Clearwater Pathway is 15th, Branchloft Pathway is 19th, Darkbore Pathway is 20th, Barkchannel Pathway is 23rd, RIverglide Pathway is 25th, and Blightstep Pathway is 43rd! That’s a lot of Pathways seeing a ton of play in Standard!

In addition to their play in Standard, some of these have even cracked into Pioneer. Currently, Blightstep Pathway is the 4th most played card in Pioneer and Cragcrown Pathway is 25th. This demand is probably small relative to Standard, but gives these particular Pathways an extra bit of demand, which should facilitate a stronger price over the next year.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blightstep Pathway / Searstep Pathway

Despite the high play numbers, these Pathways are still very inexpensive, especially when compared to the Triomes. Branchloft Pathway is the cheapest, which makes sense as it’s the least played of the bunch, and retails on Card Kingdom’s site for $3.49. Market price on TCGplayer is even lower, at around $2.70. Interestingly, the borderless variant is even cheaper, with a market price of $2.49. Regular and borderless copies of Cragcrown Pathway are in the same price range, as is Needleverge Pathway.

Prices climb from there, but cap out in the $5 range. At one point, I remember when the Showcase Triomes were hovering in this same price range (perhaps a buck or two higher). For a speculative play, this could be a solid buying point as these are hitting peak supply. If I had to guess, I would predict these would, on average, be more expensive one year from now. The borderless variants may be the most attractive to grab, though I don’t know if they merit a huge premium over their regular printing. Borderless is cool, but it’s not the same as the Showcase printings seen on the Triomes.

The one strike against these is their sub-par performance in Commander. The advantage the Pathways give is their ability to enter play untapped while also giving the player early game flexibility on manabase. Commander often progresses a little more slowly (though not always), so there’s less urgency to having lands enter untapped. Color flexibility is more valuable, and having these lands only tap for one color of mana is a bit of a drawback. As such, I’m not as confident in their long-term Commander demand profile.

While this will cap gains over the long-term, the short term is still bright for the set of Pathways given how ubiquitous they’ll be in Standard. Demand should especially pick up as more FNM’s resume with in-person paper events in the coming months.

Wrapping It Up

I must admit I haven’t paid much attention to recent Magic developments in a while—there’s been too much going on in the Old School market, where I focus most my attention, that I haven’t had time to monitor trends in newer cards.

These lands are still on my radar, however, and I wanted to provide a brief update on how I view each group: Temples, Triomes, and Pathways. If forced to choose between the three, I’d put my money into Triomes for a long-term play and Pathways for a short-term (less than a year) play. I haven’t bought any Pathways yet, but I may look to do so soon. I already have a small pile of Temples and Triomes—I’ll be monitoring pricing trends closely in the coming months to see if I’m presented with an attractive exit point.

Even if these do appreciate modestly, I still think they’ll carry with them an unattractive opportunity cost. It feels awkward holding a Triome and waiting a couple years for its price to go from $7 to $12 when we have stuff like Singing Tree going from $100 to $300 in the same timeframe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Singing Tree

But now that many Reserved List cards already jumped, perhaps one viable strategy is to cash out of the overpriced, less-useful older cards and move store credit into Triomes and Pathways. When I receive store credit, and I find that all the cool old cards I want are way overpriced, this will be my backup plan. For me to even consider acquiring more of these new cards should say a lot to my readers, however, and I hope they consider these seriously when looking for smart areas to put money to work in an era where prices are already lofty.

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