menu

Of Chess and Magic

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

If you follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed that I haven’t tweeted much recently. I mainly use the account for engagement with the Magic community, and I haven’t really played Magic for a few months. At one point I was jamming as many games on Arena as I could, striving to hit Mythic every month. Now my free time has centered around a different game: chess.

Personally, there are some components to chess that Magic lacks, which I really appreciate. First and foremost, there’s no “luck” in chess. Outside the random chance of blundering a piece or having your opponent blunder a piece, the game starts the same way every time. Whether you win or lose depends solely on skill. I also appreciate chess’s ELO rating system (which incidentally, used to be reapplied for Magic ratings). When every game impacts your rating and global rank, it feels like every win counts. There are meaningful games that impact ranking on Arena too, but gold/diamond/etc. doesn’t carry the same weight as a precise number, in my opinion.

Obviously I can’t write about chess finance or ladder my interest in the hobby back to Magic finance. But I did come up with a clever idea for this week.

I’ve been watching this one Grand Master’s YouTube series, where he plays through games of chess and explains to the viewers his moves along the way. His name is Daniel Naroditsky, and if you’re interested in learning more about chess I highly recommend his YouTube channel. It’s been extremely helpful to watch. Now that I’ve watched over 70 of his videos, I’ve learned a few rules of thumb that he likes to repeat while he plays. I’m going to take some of those phrases and re-tool them to describe Magic finance strategies. The parallels won’t be perfect, so I ask readers for a little creative license here. With some luck, there will still be some useful tidbits.

Prepare Slow, Attack Fast

This phrase could describe some Magic decks. Combo decks come to mind—when I used to play Ad Nauseam in Legacy, I would spend the first couple turns to cast a few cantrips and disrupting my opponent’s hand. My opponent would always know when I was launching “the attack” because I’d get out a die to keep track of the storm count!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

As it turns out, this is a reasonable strategy in chess as well. I have found that if I attempt to launch an attack prematurely, before developing my pieces optimally, a capable opponent is able to thwart my efforts. This leaves me licking my wounds (likely leading to a loss).

But how does this concept apply to Magic finance? When speculating on a card, especially a card with a long-term time horizon, sometimes it is wise to accumulate the card slowly and be prepared to sell quickly. If a new card is printed and is clearly a powerful Commander staple, it may be wise to acquire a bunch of copies. But new cards that only see play in Commander take a while to appreciate in price. If you rush out and buy a ton of copies day one, you may be overpaying. In these situations, I’d recommend gradually purchasing copies, allowing the price to come down a bit post-release and helping you cost average your investment.

Then when the time comes and the card spikes or reaches that inflection point, it’s wise to cash out fast. Reprints are everywhere these days, and you never know when your spec will get hit with fresh, new supply. That’s why I advocate cashing out quickly when the time is right!

A good example of this is Sliver Hivelord.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sliver Hivelord

If you had bought the Magic 2015 mythic rare upon release, you would have bought in too early. The card’s price hit a bottom a few months after the set’s release. Then the card’s price languished for a few years; this would have been the best time to gradually pick up copies. Then, once new slivers were revealed in a recent set, the card spiked to $40. But it didn’t hold that price point for long—this would have been the prime opportunity to cash out fast. Funny enough, the card recently spiked again to $40, but is already on a downward trajectory. So in this case, you had a couple chances to sell out before a major reprint. Sometimes, we don’t get a second chance!

Knights on the Rim are Grim

This is one of my favorite chess sayings. In the game, it refers to the fact that placing your knights on spaces near the edges of the board limits the number of spaces the piece has access to. Thus, they are “grim” in their prospects.

With a little creative license, I can relate this to Magic finance pretty easily. The rule of thumb would be that cards that are only played sparsely, especially in sideboards (i.e. the “rim”), have grim prospects for financial gains.

It is trivial to suggest that cards that see more play have more upside, all other things equal. While sideboard cards have their place in decks, the reality is such cards don’t offer the same upside potential as cards that see any significant play, especially as a 4-of, in the main deck. That’s not to say that sideboard cards can never be valuable—there have been numerous costly sideboard cards across the history of the game. Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity come to mind readily. And there was a moment when Rest in Peace was a $10 card.

But in general, sideboard cards don’t have as much upside potential as cards that are played in the main deck. A recent example is Modern sideboard card Plague Engineer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plague Engineer

Modern Horizons cards that dodge reprint are likely going to be hot as in-person Magic events resume. We’ve already seen some cards in the set climb. While Plague Engineer has its place in Modern sideboards, it really can’t be justified in the main deck as it would be a poor draw too much of the time. Stuck in the sideboard, the card’s price growth is relatively limited; I would much rather buy the cycle of dual lands in the set, or perhaps Altar of Dementia, a Commander staple, despite the multiple reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Altar Of Dementia

Not Every Piece Has to be an All-star

I’m paraphrasing this last chess concept because Daniel Naroditsky varies this one a bit. One of my favorite versions is, “Not every piece has to be out there finding a cure for COVID.” What he means is, while it’s nice to develop each piece on an optimal square, the reality is that you can’t do that perfectly in every game. Sometimes, you just need to accept the fact that a piece needs to be a bit more passive, at least temporarily.

I can translate this to Magic finance when I think about the diversification of my collection. While I would love all cards I purchase to be homerun specs that spike quickly and leave me with hefty profits, I have to recognize that this isn’t really feasible. There are times when we need to be okay with throwing some cards in a box for a couple years in the hopes that the spec pays off.

In both Magic and stocks, I am an advocate of diversification. It is wise not to over-expose yourself to a single card or format because you leave yourself vulnerable to reprints and shifts in the metagame. While it’s fun to buy dozens of copies of a new, flashy card, it’s also wise to find those slow-and-steady growers and sit on them for a couple years.

Of course, the exception here is the Reserved List. Cards on the Reserved List cannot be reprinted, and are from the game’s earliest days; both factors make for a wise investment, which is why Reserved List cards have overheated recently. But even still, I recommend diversifying—all the Reserved List cards feel overpriced currently, so if you want to put money to work, it probably needs to be something else. I cannot support buying some of these cards… I mean, $30 for Spiritual Sanctuary? Come on, now!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spiritual Sanctuary

It’s probably worth diversifying and picking up a smattering of newer cards. The triomes from Ikoria seem like good medium-term investments as long as they dodge reprint. The same can be said for the pathways from Zendikar Rising and Kaldheim, which will likely be mainstays in Standard and Pioneer. Or if you want a penny stock, I still have a stack of Genesis from Modern Horizons and Ruin Crabs from Zendikar Rising—I’m hoping to cash out of these at a buck apiece at some point in the future…distant future, perhaps. But my entry price was low enough that I don’t mind the wait.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruin Crab

Wrapping It Up

Daniel Naroditsky has taught me a great deal about chess strategy and in an entertaining way. He has a bunch of other phrases that I could have worked with.

“You can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs” is one I particularly like. Then there’s his description of “potential energy” versus “kinetic energy” when it comes to positioning pieces. I never thought learning about chess could be so fun—I know that sounds cheesy, but it’s really helped keep my interest.

Despite my virtual abandonment of Magic play for chess in recent days, I still practice Magic finance as fervently as ever. The market is very exciting right now as prices fluctuate, inflation rises, and Reserved List cards hit retreat from all-time highs. I think that even if I lose interest in the game of Magic, I’ll never lose interest in the collectability and investability of the cards.

For this reason, I decided to have some fun this week and convert some recent chess tidbits into Magic finance tips. I hope readers enjoyed the exercise as much as I did. In fact, if you did or did not appreciate this foray into a different game, please mention something in the comments below or on Twitter (@sigfig8). If I get positive feedback, I may do this again. Either way, I have a feeling I’ll be eschewing Arena for chess for the foreseeable future.

Insider: Beledros Speculation Opportunities

Posted on by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

We have seen multiple cards that play well with Strixhaven's "pest" creature type spike in the past few weeks. The two biggest are:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savra, Queen of the Golgari
There was an error retrieving a chart for Creakwood Liege

The most likely reason is Beledros Witherbloom decks as typically when an archetype sees multiple spikes it is due to a new card entering a format. When we look for cards that would seem likely to be auto includes in this deck it is important to remember that Beledros creates tokens and acts as a mana doubler at the cost of life. So if you assume you always have access to those two options, then we need to look at what is "missing" for the deck to powerfully function. The pests created by Beledros provide minor life gain and optional sacrificial creatures for any sort of engine. To me, the biggest missing piece of the puzzle is card draw of some sort.

When a new card or mechanic gets spoiled we will often see the other half of the combo or the best card that plays with said mechanic spike in price; for example, Chain of Smog when the magecraft mechanic was spoiled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chain of Smog

However, thanks to the singular nature of Commander and its massive card pool, we typically get a bit more time to find our opportunities as the hivemind gets to work on various builds and an optimal list takes shape. This doesn't mean that we have months and months to decide what to pick up, but it does mean that if you don't buy immediately you will be priced out just as fast.

Today, we'll look at a few speculation targets that either haven't moved or still remain under $2, as I believe a low buy-in is crucial to maximizing your profits with regards to speculation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Evolutionary Leap

Evolutionary Leap is a card I actually brought up in the discord chat over a week ago as a potentially good buy. Golgari builds tend to have plenty of options when it comes to sacrificing creatures for value, however, neither color tends to have a lot of card advantage, so Evolutionary Leap provides a cheap sacrifice outlet to convert a token into a creature from your library. Given Beledros' ability to untap all your lands having a card that gives you something to do with that mana seems ideal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Izoni, Thousand-Eyed

Golgari decks often run some form of graveyard recursion, so creatures with good ETBs gain extra value. Izoni can act as a repeatable mass token generator in this type of deck and is currently sitting at bulk rare status. Normally, I prefer to avoid newer cards as speculation targets due to the sheer number of copies in circulation, but this one seems pretty low-risk given the low buy-in. Izoni also provides card draw, a sacrifice outlet, and life gain which are all things every Beledros deck will want.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Species Specialist

While a bit more niche than our other two options, it seems WotC has been careful about including "non-token" when creating cards that allow you to draw a card when a creature dies. Species Specialist will allow repeated card draw when one type of creature dies, so if you name pest you can generate card advantage when Beledross is in play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Prophecy

This is definitely an auto-include in Beledros decks as it does trigger off tokens dying and the life loss is counteracted with the life gain from the pests themselves. It is important to note that this card's price has already moved up to be on average above my initial $2 threshold but you may be able to find copies under $2. This is the card on my list that I believe has the most potential. It was printed once, 7 years ago, in a rather unimpressive core set, and being an enchantment it tends to be harder for opponents to deal with.

Conclusion

Beledros Witherbloom appears to be one of the breakout commanders in a set full of legendary creatures. It has caused multiple cards to rise in value and there is likely room for that list to grow both in value and in the number of cards included. There are numerous other cards I expect to move upward as more players build this deck, but, the four I listed are the ones that likely have the most opportunity for growth due to their overall usefulness and low buy-in.

Spell Spotlight: Prismari Command

Posted on by Jordan Boisvert

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

When it was first spoiled, Prismari Command wasn't particularly exciting to Modern players. But this month, we're seeing the card on a noticeable uptick, with players registering two to even the full four copies in archetypes as strategically diverse as value, combo, and control. Clearly there's something to this three-mana instant! Today, we'll take a look at the various roles Prismari Command can play for different decks, how it compares to sister spell Kolaghan's Command, and some of the lists that are taking advantage of the Strixhaven newcomer.

Digging In

To get started, we'll dissect what Prismari Command does, exactly, and why the comparisons to Kolaghan's Command may tell a deceptive story when it comes to the card's power level.

Parsing the Modes

Prismari Command has four modes, of which casters may choose two:

  • Prismari Command deals 2 damage to any target.
  • Target player draws two cards, then discards two cards.
  • Target player creates a Treasure token.
  • Destroy target artifact.

The first and last modes, also native to Kolaghan's Command, are no strangers to three-cost instants (more on the two Commands below). But the other two are newer.

Creating a Treasure token appears on paper like the spell's weakest mode. But in jamming Magic: Arena of late, I've come to better appreciate the secret power of Treasure tokens, and I don't just mean alongside Urza, Lord High Artificer. Assuming you're planning on casting a spell next turn or this turn, Treasure essentially makes that spell cost one less mana, which often adds up to the initial, Treasure-generating spell costing one less mana. That means that in a pinch, pilots can be paying a functional two mana for any one of Prismari Command's modes, which gives the modal spell an interesting cost-reduction dimension and a heck of a lot of versatility.

Plus, making a Treasure is actually better than just "sometimes costing one less." It's ramp. Simian Spirit Guide was just banned in Modern thanks to the ease at which it let players slam haymakers or combo components a turn early. Seeing as how many of those spells cost five mana (Through the Breach, Ad Nauseam, etc.), Prismari Command can potentially fill the gap, interacting or digging on turn three while "locking in" a Simian Guide for the next turn. And since it's so much more versatile than Simian Guide, we're going to start seeing that pseudo-Guide effect in a lot more decks than had it before going forward.

Then there's the ol' draw two, discard two. This mode evokes yet another banned card: Faithless Looting. You heard it here first, folks: Prismari Command is two banned cards in one! Well, not really. Looting costing a single mana is a huge part of its success; after all, Izzet Charm also features this mode and sees virtually no Modern play.

Kolaghan's Card Advantage

It's not nuts to compare Prismari Command to Kolaghan's Command, even if thanks to their respective colors, the spells were fated to end up in different decks regardless of their text boxes. One key reason: they're nonetheless costed similarly, at 1RC. Another: half of their text boxes are identical.

Among Kolaghan Command's most backbreaking mode pairings is 2 damage and destroy an artifact, a play that often dismantles enemy board states, and at instant speed to boot. Prismari Command shares these two modes, making the same potential blowout possible in URx and giving blue mages a far more flexible option than Abrade when it comes to dealing with artifacts with main-deckable cards. Still, it's worth nothing that Kolaghan Command's other two modes are chosen quite frequently, and that's where Prismari might leave something to be desired.

Target opponent discards a card causes the opponent to minus one, generating a net gain of one in card advantage: Kolaghan's caster spent one card to remove a permanent on the board, and the opponent lost an additional card for good measure. The other mode, return target creature from your graveyard to your hand, also puts the caster up a card. In other words, every mode pairing on Kolaghan's Command generates card advantage.

Not true of Prismari Command; only the mode pairing it shares with Kolaghan's Command will actually plus one indiscriminately, and that's also the most conditional of Kolaghan's card advantage parings, as it requires the opponent to have very specific permanents in play. Prismari's other commands of create a Treasure and draw two, discard two are a wash in terms of card economy, although the former generates an interesting ramp dimension and the latter provides card selection. Prismari Command is simply not a card advantage spell, and comparing it to Kolaghan's Command—one of the format's premier card advantage spells—therefore runs the risk of selling the newer Command short. To Prismari's credit, card advantage is not a premier in-game element in Modern relative to in other non-rotating formats. The same can't be said of tempo and card selection, both of which hold multiple cards hostage on the banlist.

tl;dr: Prismari Command is indeed worse than Kolaghan's Command in terms of card advantage. Most Modern decks care more about other in-game dimensions more than they care about card advantage.

Hold On, We're Comboing Home

If we're not making card advantage, what exactly are we doing with Prismari Command? Proactively, ramping, digging, and dumping; defensively, killing artifacts and creatures. In other words, five things beloved by big-spell combo decks, which seem like the most obvious home for the instant. Take these decks, for instance:

Temur Breach, BALLTAP (8th, Champs #12293241)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Instants

4 Archmage's Charm
2 Cryptic Command
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
4 Prismari Command
4 Remand
4 Through the Breach

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Castle Vantress
3 Flooded Strand
4 Island
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Abrade
4 Aether Gust
2 Force of Negation
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
1 Mystical Dispute
3 Veil of Summer
3 Weather the Storm

Breach decks have long been combo-control piles wielding tempo cards to modify the game's pace en route to victory, as Splinter Twin once did. Temur Breach is no different, leaning heavily on Wrenn and Six to support Snapcaster Mage in a grind game. The loot from Prismari not only dumps excess combo pieces like spare Emrakuls, but loots through the wrong half of the deck, letting it assemble its combo or amass value depending on the matchup. And of course, a turn three Prismari threatens a turn four Breach, giving the deck that ever-feared dimension from Twin. Opponents aren't even safe with something like Meddling Mage in play, since Command can shoot that as it ramps up to five.

Idomitable Breach, SPIDERSPACE (15th, Challenge #12293271)

Creatures

4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Sorceries

4 Indomitable Creativity

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
4 Prismari Command
4 Remand
4 Through the Breach
2 Valakut Awakening

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
2 Bloodstained Mire
3 Dwarven Mine
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Raugrin Triome
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
1 Anger of the Gods
3 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Dispel
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Rest in Peace

It so has it that Prismari Command is efficient enough that the Breach decks don't need to divert their gameplan in hopes of prolonging the game. This UR Breach deck doubles up on payoffs with Indomitable Creativity and splashes Teferi, Time Raveler as additional combo protection. From there, the gameplan is simple: ramp into a big spell and land that Emrakul.

Niv-Mizzet Omnath, FLSHT0PH (21st, Challenge #12293271)

Creatures

4 Omnath, Locus of Creation
2 Birds of Paradise
3 Niv-Mizzet Reborn
1 Valki, God of Lies

Planeswalkers

1 Nahiri, the Harbinger
4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Abundant Growth
4 Utopia Sprawl

Sorceries

4 Bring to Light
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Unmoored Ego

Instants

1 Abrupt Decay
2 Assassin's Trophy
4 Kaya's Guile
3 Lightning Helix
4 Prismari Command
1 Vanishing Verse

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Godless Shrine
1 Indatha Triome
1 Ketria Triome
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
3 Pillar of the Paruns
4 Prismatic Vista
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
2 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Crumble to Dust
1 Deicide
3 Fatal Push
1 Shadows' Verdict
4 Thoughtseize
4 Veil of Summer
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

Niv-Mizzet isn't so much a combo deck as a value deck; its game-winning play is to draw a bunch of powerful gold cards. That does mean the deck can choke on the wrong spells at the wrong time, and it can use all the help it can get at assembling five mana for Bring to Light, Niv-Mizzet, or even Omnath-plus-fetchland. Enter Prismari Command, looter and ramper extraordinaire that also does Kolaghan's Command things, making it both a prime enabler and a worthy payoff to flip off Niv-Mizzet. I'll take 4, thanks!

Summing Up

Prismari Command may not be Kolaghan's Command in terms of card advantage, but its modes are flexible and versatile enough to make it a Modern staple we'll be seeing years down the road, just like the OG Shock-Shatter. As illustrated, the modes on Prismari are far better in the right deck than returning a creature or making opponents discard, both of which are mostly best suited for... well, Jund. We're so used to being on the receiving end of great Kolaghan's that Prismari can seem underwhelming at first, but based on its very stellar month in Modern, I'd wager that's about to change!

An Abundant Harvest from Historic

Posted on by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

I don't get Wizards's decision making. So many calls over the past few years just leave me scratching my head. I'm sure I'm not alone in this, and there have been editorials aplenty on every possible issue already. Instead, today I want to examine one very specific decision and its consequences. Specifically, Wizards made the decision to preprint a card from Modern Horizons 2 in the Strixhaven Mythic Archive. Which in practice means that it was made legal in Historic before any other format. And it is already having an impact, in ways which are suggestive of how Modern will react.

Before I continue, I should note that I am no expert on Historic. I don't play Arena much because the economy is... poor, to be diplomatic. Subsequently, I have very limited experience evaluating Historic decks. That won't matter because I'm just using them as a jumping-off point to investigate Modern applications. However, in addition to this standard disclaimer, I'm going to make the following plea: does anyone get Historic? Specifically, what is it supposed to be? It made sense as Pioneer-light initially, but now it's become this weird mishmash of Pioneer and Legacy and I don't understand where Wizards is going with Historic. Is it an experiment in creating a format? Do they intend to replace Legacy with Historic? Do they even have a plan? If you know or at least have a decent explanation, let me know.

Abundant Harvest

Preprinting Abundant Harvest is the strangest thing Wizards has done in some time. With everything else controversial, there's been decent arguments for it being good or bad. This time, though, it's just bizarre. Reactions to the revelation were primarily "huh, that's weird." As time's gone on, discussion has moved more towards the power of the card, but with the caveat that it's only legal in one constructed format. Talk about a risky marketing move. As an early preview that can be played, what happens if it proves too good before it's even released? Or worse, not good enough? The former would make players dread the set; the latter would turn them off. It's a very fine line, and I'm not sure how it is playing out.

As for the card itself, Harvest is an effect Modern's seen before, but not in green. There's a long line of this effect in black, stretching back to Demonic Consultation. The closest comparison in Modern is Spoils of the Vault. Harvest is neither as powerful nor as risky as Spoils. Both cost one mana, but Spoils finds a specific card or no card to set up Thassa's Oracle. Alternatively, it kills its caster. Harvest asks if its caster wants a land or nonland, then gives them the first chosen type it finds. Straightforward and without risk. Green has had a number of cards in the vein of revealing cards to find a certain type, but they're usually limited to creatures or lands and look five cards deep at most. Harvest is anywhere from one card to the entire deck. And finds any nonland, potentially. Ancient Stirrings is eating its heart out.

Using Harvest

I've heard this called a card selection spell rather than a cantrip; it is both neither and both. It's only selection in that the caster chooses whether they want a land or a nonland. After that, they take the first instance revealed. The picked card being random doesn't really mean card selection to me. There's no choosing among options or setting up draws like Ponder or Oath of Nissa. It doesn't have a desirable effect and then replace itself, like Veil of Summer or Remand. It's not a tutor because the card is random. Thus it's not some freeroll card; players need to want to dig for a land or nonland to run Harvest.

The single most powerful usage, and where I think a lot of players are leaning towards, is using Harvest to guarantee land drops. A one-land hand with a cantrip is better than one with no cantrip, but it's still a risky keep. Replace that Opt or Serum Visions with Harvest, and this risky keep becomes a snap-keep. Theoretically. So long as Harvest resolves and you name land, you will make your next land drop. Will it be an optimal land? Who knows. But it will be a land, and that's most important. For most decks, this is no problem; one land is as good as another. In decks that require specific lands, lack of choice may be a problem. As such, I suspect that many players will try to Turbo Xerox their decks with Harvest. More on that shortly.

Finding nonlands is a vital but significantly less potent feature. Harvest does find all spells, which is good when flooding or otherwise out of gas. But again, there's no control over what spell is found. It might be useful, and it might be effectively blank. Stirrings and Oath give a choice of options so you get the most relevant spell, if any are present. A guaranteed spell is always good and deckbuilding can mitigate risk of a bad pull, but it is important to remember that Harvest finds a random spell where current cantrips give players choices.

Exploiting Harvest

Worth noting, Harvest is exploitable. The obvious way is naming nonland in a primarily land deck. Which means that Zombie Hunt moves ever-so-incrementally towards viability. I realize that the whole point of the deck is its cheapness, but by adding green and Harvest, Hunt won't have to mulligan so aggressively for Treasure Hunt. Instead, it can stop with a Harvest in hand, confidant that it will find either Hunt or Zombie Infestation. I will bet anything that the memelords will instigate a resurgence of the deck at minimum.

While potentially also useful for finding a land in Oops, All Spells, I don't know why anyone would bother. Seriously, given the MDFCs, why would anyone bother running one land and Harvesting for it? If Harvest let players stack their deck, that'd be one thing, but it doesn't. Therefore I don't see how it's possible to use Harvest naming land for a nefarious purpose which is better than existing options. Pay attention to that phrase, it will come back later.

A Warning From Historic

Everything I've said so far is great in a vacuum, but Abundant Harvest is not a card in a vacuum. Historic players have had just under a month to tune, test, and win with Harvest. They've already done the work, so now it's time to learn from them. And... I'm not entirely sure what I expected (again, I don't understand Historic), but it definitely isn't what's happening. At time of writing, Harvest is not a very popular card in Historic. It isn't even in the top 10 played cards from Strixhaven. And while the usual excuses of "Historic isn't Modern" in either cardpool or metagame are certainly applicable, they're not persuasive. Historic indicates that Harvest will not behave as expected in Modern, and might not even be played.

Those Who Ignore Historic...

As alluded to above, the expectation was that Harvest's guaranteed land would lead to players aggressively cutting lands. This has not happened in Historic. I don't know why precisely, but even high-cantrip, low curve decks play 20 lands minimum, and most decks play upwards of 23. I suspect this is because a lack of fetchlands requires decks to play more lands to meet their color requirements. Mana curves are generally higher than Modern's, but not so much so to explain the higher land counts. And remember, this is a format with Brainstorm and Faithless Looting. If aggressive land-cutting was viable, it would be happening.

The second unexpected discovery was that Harvest doesn't see play in aggressive decks. The most common deck I see run Harvest is UB Mill Rogues, which is a slower tempo deck, similar to mono-Blue Tempo from a pervious Standard. Rogues can win fast, but its main plan is to ride a single threat for many turns and grind the opponent out. This strategy doesn't usually work in Modern. Behind Rogues are GRx decks, split between Gruul Beatdown and Jund Sacrifice. Jund is decidedly midrange while Gruul is on the slower side of aggro, more like stompy than a truly aggressive deck. I thought that Harvest's natural home would be Legacy-style cantrip beatdown, and while players have tried to make those decks work, the data indicates that they just don't.

My third observation is that Harvest doesn't see much play in the decks interested in specific cards. This makes sense, as again Harvest finds a random card. However, this applies more generally than I expected. Based on limited experience watching streams, the value of Harvest isn't actually finding lands early but mitigating midgame flood. The decks that play Harvest have high land counts, and don't need to use Harvest to save sketchy hands. Instead, they struggle with their higher counts on later turns and there's no better card for pushing through a string of lands than Harvest. A problem that Modern players are quite familiar with.

...Are Doomed to Repeat It

In light of Historic's experiment with Abundant Harvest, I have strong doubts about its Turbo Xerox value. Historic has more and more powerful cantrips than Modern, and Harvest isn't very successful in cantrip heavy lists. Even as a way to push past Brainstormed cards. I'm certain that players will try anyway, but if Historic Dreadhorde Arcanist lists don't always run Harvest in a format which is more amenable to it, how much success can it expect in Modern? Especially when it sees little play already?

Outside of aggressive decks, there are slower decks that might enjoy midgame flood protection in Modern. Thus, they might use Harvest similarly to Jund Sacrifice. Outside of that, I'm not sure. Tron wouldn't give up Stirrings, the selection is too potent. Amulet Titan cut Stirrings a long time ago and I can't imagine it needs a more random version. Valakut decks, particularly Titan Shift, might want Harvest as a way to dig towards payoff cards, but I can't imagine they want to sacrifice their ramp cards to make space. Harvest presents more of a deckbuilding challenge than a clear tool. Which is a relief. I worried that Harvest would be an auto-include card.

The Main Problem

Additionally and relatedly, let's say that players make Harvest and/or Arcanist work as a Modern deck. How would such a deck be better than Prowess? Any Turbo Xerox-style deck will necessarily be playing in similar design space, and the decks will have significant overlap. However, an Arcanist deck will necessarily be slower than Prowess because the whole point is value acquisition, and that doesn't happen at Prowess speeds. I can hear stalwarts arguing that Arcanist generates more prowess triggers, but A) it's not like Prowess decks need more of those and B) they could already do that, but don't. Which speaks volumes.

The question that Harvest will have to answer is how, in a format as fast and tempo-driven as Modern, is it worth a deck's time to durdle in the midgame? Right now it's not, so Harvest must make a very convincing case. Outside of Tron, Storm, and Izzet Prowess, decks don't bother with large numbers of cantrips because they can't take time off from playing to the battlefield. And even in those few cantrip heavy decks, they're intrinsic to the gameplan in a mana neutral or better way. Tron's jewelry makes mana, Storm and Prowess' cantrips generate storm count and damage. A (not free) cantrip for cantripping's sake just doesn't fit with Modern's style and makes me question whether Harvest can make a home in Modern.

Experiment By Doing

However, there's only one way to find out. I'm sure that players have already tested Harvest extensively and can say with more certainty than I if it passes muster. Plus, this week marks the start of official MH2 spoilers, so maybe there's more cards that will help Harvest fit in Modern. We all just have to see.

Inflation’s Impact on Your Magic Investment

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Last week, Wall Street investors closely scrutinized a data point that had profound implications on the stock market. The chart of this metric looks akin to a Reserved List Magic card during a buyout, but I assure you this is not the case.

The chart is in fact a depiction of America’s inflation rate using the Consumer Pricing Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As you can see, the CPI number for April 2021 came in extremely hot, well above the trending data from the past year and the highest it’s been in over ten years. Is this cause for concern? What will the impact of inflation be on the collectibles market? I honestly wasn’t sure, so I googled exactly this and I stumbled across a New York Times article from 1978! This week, I dust off that article and highlight some key insights that apply today to a market that didn’t even exist when it was written: the Magic card market.

The Inflation Concern

Well, there are two sides to this debate. Some say this inflation is transitory and reflects expected adjustments in prices as the economy re-opens following 14 months of hibernation via lockdowns. This group of individuals aren’t too concerned about the data point and expects the number to retrace. They point to some of the most influential prices that drove up the CPI number so drastically: gasoline, hotels, used cars, airfare, and the like.

The argument here is that these prices were all suppressed for months while everyone stayed at home under lockdown conditions. Now that the economy is opening up again, people have pent-up demand for travel and lodging, hence the increase in airfare and hotel costs. Gas prices also will rebound with this new demand, and the pipeline hack didn’t help the situation. Lastly, the automobile market is overheated right now because of the worldwide chip shortage, and this is inflating used (and new) car prices.

In theory, once the market equilibrates, inflation will return to a more modest value.

Others are not so confident in this hypothesis. There’s a group that’s truly concerned that inflation is going to run away from the Fed, interest rates will have to rise to combat rampant inflation, and this could lead to a recession. This group was the more influential one for most of last week as stocks sold off, though there was a nice recovery on Friday as buyers came in to take advantage of the dip.

Either way, at least for now it looks like we have some inflation on our hands. As I observed the CPI value make waves in the stock market, I couldn’t help but research what the impact may be on the value of my Magic collection.

New York Times: Aug 6, 1978

When I googled the impact of inflation on collectibles, this was one of the first matches: a New York Times article from 1978. How relevant is this article to the Magic market, which didn’t even exist until 1993? Surprisingly, there are some pretty valuable nuggets of insight!

The article opens with a reassuring sentiment: “…all collectors have traditionally had the inside track in surviving periods of inflation and general monetary disarray, such as those that beset many investors today.” It’s interesting how history repeats itself, right? If I had just inserted this comment in an article I suspect I could have passed it off as something written in May 2021 and not August 1978!

The author goes on to say, “Intuitively, collectors, whether passive or not, know that the values of tangibles invariably rise during periods of inflation because what they have or what they want costs more each day. Besides, collectors are also consumers and don’t have to be told that the dollar buys a bit less each day.”

But it gets even more interesting in the next paragraph, where it’s explained that portable and private collectibles tend to appreciate in value fastest! The author provides examples of portable collectibles, such as coins, art, rugs, or stamps. Of course, Magic cards would also fit into this category. The explanation passes the sniff test, in my opinion. If sitting in U.S. Dollars loses purchasing power over time, there’s motivation to store value in alternate assets. The more portable, the easier to manage. Magic cards would fit this bill nicely…the dollar may drop in value, but an Underground Sea can preserve value while also offering utility in the meantime!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

The article goes on to explain how some investors are more aggressive and seek out leveraged deals. “Today, usually conservative collectors increasingly borrow money to acquire both collectibles and investments such as precious metals and stronger foreign currencies.” In 2021, I would lump cryptocurrencies in that bucket as well.

But are people really taking out loans to speculate on Magic cards? It’s been done in the past, so it wouldn’t surprise me. Though, I suspect some of the more enfranchised investors/speculators don’t need loans to put a dent in the Magic market.

The next section of the article describes numbers that definitely don’t represent 2021! The fixed mortgage rate (in New York state) is cited as 8.5 percent, which is way higher than where they are in America today. And gold’s price ad recently “soared” to $207.50 an ounce, about one-eighth where it trades today. What’s more, gold hasn’t been rallying with the recent bout of inflation—it could be because people are using cryptocurrencies as their inflation hedge instead, but that’s a topic for another day.

Words of Wisdom from the Article

The New York Times article proceeds to describe “a number traps [SIC] that await the unwary.” I bet these are relevant to the Magic card market today, even without reading through the entire article beforehand!

The first caution from an investment specialist interviewed for the article is “people buying collectibles with a view to making money must consider their purchases as long-term affairs because of the high markups.” This could not be more well-put for Magic cards today! Prices of Reserved List and Old School cards—some of the most investible—have already appreciated significantly in the past year. Inflation could mean higher card prices, but it may take a while because prices are already pretty lofty. While vendors will continue to buy and sell cards to pay their bills and make money, the hobbyist investor may require more patience for prices to stabilize and then, eventually, climb higher.

The second caution in the article is that “in inflationary periods people transferring savings to tangible goods often select items they are familiar with as collectors…this often distorts one’s investment judgment. Because collectors may quickly become speculators without actually realizing it, I advise clients with strong emotional or other ties to particular collectibles to sit down, cool off and breathe calmly for a while before chasing after the market.”

This paragraph resonates most of all! How many times have I written about the pitfalls of letting emotions cloud judgment when dealing in Magic finance? If you’re looking to save/make money, you’re best off avoiding emotions altogether. Unfortunately, this is particularly difficult when dealing in Magic cards because we often get attached to the cardboard—especially those cards that are in decks! If you’re going to invest in Magic cards with the end goal of financial gain, you need to be willing to sell cards at the exact time when they’re most exciting to own. If you don’t want to do that, that’s perfectly fine. But know this about yourself when making those purchases, and go into each purchase with a planned exit strategy, whether short term or long term.

The final warning is also 100% applicable to the Magic card market: “Mr. Sinclair also warned of manipulated markets, ‘where a handful of dealers skilled in mass communication can create trends in collectibles almost overnight.’”

Does that happen in MTG finance? You bet it does!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silhouette

Vocal community members with a large social media presence can easily manipulate card prices, whether intentionally or unintentionally. We also see common behaviors with manipulation of prices on TCGplayer, where a card is bought out and then re-listed at a 500% increase. This causes the card to “spike” on MTG Stocks, and some naïve investors may take that as a buy signal, chasing prices higher. This article could not be more spot on in describing Magic cards!

Wrapping It Up

The New York Times article goes on to state that inflation will be here to stay because it’s inherent in how our government is set up. I won’t get into the politics of it all, but it’s safe to say the US Dollar will be worth less in the future than today.

“Given this outlook, Mr. Sinclair said that the trend toward investments in collectibles will continue. ‘Whenever economic or social conditions, worsen, people yearn nostalgically for the so-called good old days, even if they were figments of one’s imagination,’ he explained. ‘And nostalgia always draws people to mementos of the past.’”

This statement resonates with me completely. It’s precisely why I have really cherished my Old School collection. Even if we put aside the investment prospects of a Black Lotus, there’s something to be said for the nostalgic factor. Owning a card as an adult that I always wanted as a kid but could never afford is one of the most fulfilling aspects of collecting Magic cards. I don’t think this feeling is going away anytime soon, which is why I believe Magic cards remain excellent investments (even if we put inflation aside). The same can be said for nostalgic video games, comic books, or any other collectibles that we grew up desiring and can now afford as adults.

This factor alone can drive prices upward for years to come. And this nostalgia is so strong, that I could honestly see it outlasting Magic as a game. Hasbro could stop printing cards today—there would probably be some panic selling, but I expect many card prices would remain robust (or even climb higher given the guaranteed stoppage of supply) because the game will always have a spot in many players’ and collectors’ hearts. It’s this driving force, above inflation, that gives me confidence in the long-term prospects of a Magic investment.

Risk Management in Collection Buying: What Can You Do to Minimize Risk?

Posted on by Kai Haas

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Purchasing collections is a great way to get lots of cards, very quickly, and for a very good price. Sometimes the seller will throw in some fun extras, or you might find something unexpected while sorting. Personally, my favorite thing to see when buying collections is assorted storage boxes. Bundles are the most abundant, but seeing all the different styles, construction, and box art is always refreshing. Sometimes ill get some cool dice, an old pre-release box from days of old, some novelty sleeves, or a stack of oversize commanders that I'll never get around to using. Sometimes you'll find a card that holds sentimental value, and you'll the warm fuzzies.

The best thing to see is when you get something you don't expect but always hope for. Cards with unexpected value, or cards you never knew were included. It makes you feel like you are sailing the seven seas, finding hidden treasure in a forgotten cove. This feeling of euphoria is dangerous. Success is a drug, and it's easy to get addicted, and when your expectations are pumped full of gas, you might get burnt.

Why buy a collection?

When discussing risk management, it is important to discuss intent and motivation. The definition of "risk" changes based on your reasoning, intent, and motivation. If you are just looking to pick up some cards to boost your collection, get trades, and get cards for that sick new Scrambleverse deck that you are sure can make Top 8, (hopefully, it goes as well as your Atogatog commander deck did) then the risk is only as much as you are willing to spend, and how much more you are willing to spend if you don't get a full playset of Blacker Lotus's for your silver-bordered homebrew deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scrambleverse

If you are looking to do so to turn around and sell the cards, then the risk associated is obviously a lot higher, as you must account for the amount fees and shipping costs that will heavily cut into potential profits. If you just want to pick up a bunch of cards on long-term speculation, or on the assumption that those cards will eventually go up, then the risk is lower, but depends heavily on how long you are willing to wait for returns. Let's jump into the individual analysis and mitigation of these risks.

Estimating Value

One of the most important things to look for scouting out a collection is value. Whatever that purpose may be, the way you estimate your value may change, but for today we will go off of financial value. If you are buying a large lot of high-value cards, then it may not be as necessary to be able to quickly guess and add up value. If you can get a list of these cards beforehand, that makes things very easy. However, if you are appraising on-site, without too much prior knowledge, as these deals sometimes are, then it may be necessary to refresh yourself on some prices. I personally will look through TCGplayer for every card priced around $5, all the way up to several hundred dollars.

If you are actively buying collections regularly, it might be a good idea to do this every once in a while, and keep an eye on big swings in price. Some might not have the ability to check prices in this wide of a range often as you might need it, so the next best(or best depending on your situation) option is to try to narrow down the general era of the cards you are purchasing, and look through the cards in that era. Another great idea is to check out oddball cards, promos, foils, and other specialty cards. Once you can get a general idea, you can get an estimate and make an offer.

How much should you pay?

Before purchasing any collection you should ask yourself first, what is the cost of moving the cards you buy, and how fast are you able to move them. With format staples and other commonly played cards, I usually give those the most weight, as I am able to move those the quickest, any other cards I usually hold to a lower value, as the cost of them sitting in storage, and the risk of tying up funds in low-demand assets. Another thing to consider is the cost to move these items.

It can take practice, but try to get an understanding of how much you will be paying in sales tax, shipping fees (especially with cards higher than $25-$50, as TCGplayer will require delivery confirmation), and shipping materials. If you can lower all of these costs to a minimum, you can pay the person you are buying from more, and leave empty-handed less, without cutting as much into your profits. I'll go more into how to reduce these costs as much as possible later on, but let's throw out some numbers to give you a good idea of how much to budget for.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Land Tax

At the high of the spectrum, you may be paying somewhere between $7-$12 dollars for shipping, insurance, delivery confirmation, and shipping supplies. For sales lower than $50 dollars, you can drop that down to below a dollar. Taxes could as high as almost 10%, and TCGplayer will also charge you an additional 15% or so percent as a marketplace fee. This means that with these costs of shipping, you should hold at most around 45% of the market value for cost of sales. That just doesn't work very well. Not much of a margin for error there, so the question becomes now, how low can we get those costs.

Let's take a look at optimized costs, and see how much we can save. Obviously, the taxes and fees stay the same regardless, but lowering the cost of shipping can be a big boost. Using third-party shipping label purchasing, I've seen some get shipping prices down to $3 for tracked, and delivery confirmed shipping. For good measure, round up to $4.50-$5. For shipping materials, I've seen listings on Amazon for 25 packs of bubble mailers for $8-$10, and top loaders can be purchased as well for around $0.20 apiece if you find the right seller, getting price of shipping materials generally down to less than $0.60 an order, even less if you order in bulk quantities.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tireless Tracker

With these reductions, you can reduce the percentage cost down to at most 30%. With that information, you can offer as much as it takes to make the deal(with good regard for price of course) and leave the difference for profits/reinvestment. A good rule of thumb is to offer about what the stores around you are offering, which in my experience would be somewhere between 40% and 50% of market value, and pay at most 5%-10% more than that.  This allows for you to pay the seller a fair price, and also still leaves some meat on the bone for you. At the end of the day, if you can't get a full picture, never pay for more than what you can see.

Risk Mitigation

When you are buying collections, even when you know exactly what you are buying, is risky. Unknown factors can make or break the success of a deal. If you are buying to flip the cards, this becomes very important. Any unknown damage can immediately change your outcomes, with little hope of recovery. Something I have dealt with a lot is water damage. Imagine you are appraising a collection, and you have hit the gold mine. Hundreds of seemingly near mint cards, all with value enough to make your mother weep. You get home and start entering inventory in, and the realization sets in. The bottom half of every card is warped, and the ink is seeping through the side. It happened on small parts of collections where I was able to just barely break even, and on entire boxes of potentially promising "bulk".

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi's Protection

Examining every aspect of seemingly trivial prospects is important. Another thing to know is to not underestimate bulk. There have been dead-end deals where I was looking at substantial losses, but buy listing hundreds of $0.50 cards and selling hidden gems put me over the top. Looking for the path less traveled and thinking outside the box can not only save disastrous deals, but increase profits on good ones.

Know when to fold them

The hardest part of buying collections is knowing when to walk away. Some lots just aren't worth buying. Sometimes they are worth buying. If you can't tell, the safest bet is to walk away. It's hard to do sometimes, as sometimes the people you buy from are people in your community, people you know, or people who are just too nice to walk away from. Sometimes they expect way too much from you, or have unrealistic expectations about what they have on their hands. It's a common sight, some kid inherits a couple boxes of bulk from their parents, or a parent finds their kid's old collection, and all they know about Magic is that it's worth money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deepfathom Skulker

I see postings all the time of 3-ring binders filled with commons and lands from Oath of the Gatewatch, and they'll ask for hundreds of dollars. It breaks my heart to tell those people that all they have is bulk, bulk, and more bulk. Those seem like no-brainers, but the hardest come from when the person does have good stuff, but they want way more than anyone would pay. If your seller won't come to their senses, or it simply isn't worth it, never take the chance, it almost never works out for you, and it sets unrealistic expectations for the laymen.

The best things in life

The best things in life don't come free, and the best deals take work. You may have to drive a couple hours, you may have to get screwed a couple times, and you may lose a lot of your personal time. If you want to make money, that's easy. If you want to truly succeed, you have to work night and day, sacrifices may be made, and then you may truly achieve what you seek to achieve. As always, have a great week, be smart, and invest in cardboard.

Defining Our Terms

Posted on by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

Nowadays there are a lot of potential investment opportunities, so I think it's important to look at them in relation to Magic: The Gathering. Just 10 years ago, if you'd told someone that you invested in Magic cards, they most likely would have looked at you quizzically or just outright laughed at you. But thanks to collectibles becoming more mainstream, we have seen a resurgence in Reserved List spikes in the past 12 months that can only really be logically tied to people investing in these cards.

I understand it might come off as a bit cliché to start an article with a definition of a term, but with all that's going on in the financial world right now, I think it's important to define key terms upfront so that all can understand where I'm coming from.

Investment

Investment (n): Property or another possession acquired for future financial return or benefit.

 

I have a friend who speculated on Kuzdu and has already made 6x his investment while still holding onto a majority of his copies so far, despite it not seeing play in any format and not comboing with anything that has recently come out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kudzu

In fact, for several months the front page of MTGStocks was littered with random Reserved List (RL) cards quadrupling overnight. As expected we are seeing many of these prices creep back down, but many are unlikely to ever return to their original price which means that those who bought up these cards may still consider it a good investment even if it takes quite some time to actually turn the cards back into cash and make a profit. This has died down somewhat and I believe the reason is that many who jumped onto that train bought in without knowing a whole lot about the game and understanding card demand. This leads us to our next definition.

Value

Value (n): Worth in usefulness or importance to the possessor.

A card's value stems from multiple properties such as:

  • Playability - how often the card is played in a given deck.
  • Rarity - how rare the card is compared to other cards.
  • Collectibility - how collectible or iconic the card is compared to other cards. This may include the set it's from, its artwork, the artist who did the artwork, or other factors.
  • Personal Attachment - how personally attached to a given card a player or players are. This one tends to be more subjective than the others, but there is a reason that Alpha Animate Wall is more valuable than other bulk Alpha rares and it's because one person started collecting them a long time ago, so there are far fewer in the marketplace than others.

The market price of a card is dictated by these values because these values will determine the demand for the card. When someone buys up all the copies of an old obscure card they may make the market react in such a way that some people who fear missing out (FOMO) will purchase copies at new inflated prices, but overall these properties have not changed just because Person A buys up the lowest 200 copies of some obscure card and suddenly the TCGplayer market price moves up by 50%. If the rest of the player population wasn't interested in buying the card at $0.5, few will now be interested to buy it at $5.

Despite the clear-cut definition of the term "value", nowadays it does seem to have a fair amount of ambiguity. Every day we see multiple types of cryptocurrency rise and drop in price.

I have often repeated a wise Warren Buffet quote: "price is what you pay, value is what you get." I repeat it because it is incredibly important to understand. We typically view the terms as interchangeable because they are so closely linked, however, doing so misses an important distinction. The price is determined by the seller, but the value is determined by the buyer. If you are finishing up your decklist for a major event and realize you are missing a key sideboard card, you are willing to pay over market price at the venue because the value of having access to it is worth it. However, if you walk into your LGS and they have the same card priced the same, but you don't need it immediately, it is easy to simply pass on purchasing it.
I have a foil Shadowmage Infiltrator I opened in an Odyssey pack long ago. It has plummeted in price since I cracked that pack, but its price is irrelevant to me because I greatly value the memory of playing it in standard and winning an FNM with it and it reminds me of the time I got to meet Johnny Magic himself when I covered PT Guilds of Ravnica.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Shadowmage Infiltrator

Conclusion

The reason for this article is that I have seen a lot of people using these terms, oftentimes incorrectly. I have heard of numerous investment opportunities, be it, cryptocurrency, stocks, index funds, real estate, or Magic cards as a "good value" which obviously implies the speaker believes the current price is below what they believe the price should be or will become. There are plenty of analysts on many of those subjects with a lot more knowledge than me, every time I hear those words I ask myself by what standards do they think that. I encourage you all to do the same, regardless of the source.

Counterspell and Sanctum Prelate in Horizons 2

Posted on by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

It would seem that Wizards is growing impatient. The stated beginning of Modern Horizons 2 previews was next week. However, as part of their announcement of the "Summer of Legend" (which trips my marketing gag reflex), Wizards gave us some early spoilers. Clearly intended to whet player appetites for what is to come, the spoilers were mainly a showcase for new-to-Modern reprints. Very significant new-to-Modern reprints which are expected to have a big impact on Modern. However, if their home formats are instructive, players are overreacting.

Following the reveal, I was struck by Wizards' decision to use the pre-Eighth Edition borders for some of the alternate frames. I forgot how nostalgic that old border is for me and that it has a great fantasy vibe. It's not as functional due to smaller text boxes, but that's not a concern for me as an experienced, enfranchised player. I was subsequently horrified to realize that my reaction is exactly what Wizards is going for and a naked ploy to push sales. I hate falling for marketing. I'm still buying a box, maybe two, but I want it on record and in writing that it's not because of the blatant pandering. I'm overjoyed that Organized Play in the US is set to resume May 28, my LGS is going to host events again, and I have plans. Plans which require...cards.

At Last, Counterspell!

I'm going to start with the announcement that is least noteworthy. Not because it isn't a huge or exciting addition, but because it's been expected since original Modern Horizons. Counterspell, the proper named card not the spell mechanic, is in MH2. Which is huge, and I'm certain that (if the old paper crowd returns in June, anyway) I'll be facing numerous decks rocking full sets of the definitive way to say NO! I know a lot of dedicated control players, and they'll be overjoyed to use Counterspell in Modern. However, it's not entirely news.

I, and I remember many others, assumed that the "long asked for blue card in Modern" Wizards teased in their marketing was Counterspell. This being the year after Mark Rosewater revealed that Counterspell was considered for Standard, it made perfect sense. If Wizards thinks that Counterspell is almost fine for Standard, it's definitely fine for Modern. I, and I imagine everyone else too, was very surprised when instead it was Flusterstorm. Since then, I've just assumed that it was only a matter of time before it happened. And now it has.

Expectations

And to listen to the community reaction, the singular addition of Counterspell will make Modern into a Control Format. Modern finally getting a cheap, universal counter that is actually relevant at all points in the game means that it doesn't have to make due with underpowered conditional answers. Instead, it can actually keep up with the threats. This is significant because Standard tends to get specialized answers rather than general purpose ones.

It's a deliberate choice by Wizards, since they want creatures to matter and don't want Standard to have removal that's too good compared to creatures. Which means that Modern control must rely on picking exactly the right tools for the job rather than rely on a few very strong ones. When all the answers answer everything, decks naturally converge. Making answers niche means that control must pick a variety of spells for any situation, which makes the decks more interesting and matches more dynamic.

However, Modern's control players have long complained that this was why the archetype has floundered in Modern. The logic is that Modern is too diverse, and it is impossible for control decks to pack all the right answers because there has been a lack of general answers. Thus, pure control has been a rarity, particularly in two-color combinations. This is especially true given how strong threats have been getting relative to answers. The addition of Counterspell will even the playing field, which will be good in the long run, as control is an important piece of healthy metagames.

Legacy Says?

While it is important to remember that Modern is not Legacy, we can at least use Counterspell's place in that format to make educated guesses about Modern. And the news is not good. Counterspell is a one- or two-of in Legacy decks. This has been true since at least the Miracles era. While having an unequivocal answer to anything is potent, it really isn't necessary in Legacy control decks. Part of this is that Force of Will is essential in Legacy and takes up the space for pure counterspells. There's not much space left over for all the cantrips, removal spells, and win conditions particularly since Force of Negation became a maindeck card. The other problem is that Counterspell costs UU all the time. Legacy runs so lean that two mana is a huge investment. Relying on Counterspell risks losing a counter war on efficiency.

Modern's mana is not as constrained as Legacy's, but the point is still relevant. UU may not be a dealbreaker cost- or even color-wise, but playing Counterspell does mean forgoing other options. No control deck can just pack all of the counterspells and plan to completely control the game. Or ever beat Cavern of Souls, for that matter. Given how Modern's hard control decks are built, I can't imagine that it will ever be less than a three-of in Modern because there's already typically a slot for four two-mana counters. They're just split between multiple counters. It's outside of Esper and UW Control that I'm skeptical. Do tempo decks or aggro-control want to hold up double blue? Plus, even in the control decks, there are the utility spells to consider, and a lot of them overlap with Counterspell.

This strongly suggests that Counterspell is not going to be a four-of once initial excitement dies down. It's powerful and cheap relative to other counters, but it still doesn't answer on-board threats or do anything else when you don't need a counter.   Modern doesn't have Force of Will, after all. However, it's important to remember that Counterspell is only a tool, and over-reliance on one tool is not a recipe for success.

My Prediction

First things first: the addition of Counterspell does not uniquely make control viable. It already is, as constantly evidenced by the metagame data. The problem, especially over the past year, is MTGO. I've won matches against control thanks to them timing out more times than I can count. I had lost the game, unequivocally, but my opponent couldn't present an actual win condition quickly enough to beat the client's clock as well as their opponent. If you can't win in 25 minutes, I feel no sympathy despite knowing that I would have lost the match if it was paper Magic. Consequently, control doesn't hit its "true" metagame numbers thanks to time-out match losses. Thus I don't think there will be any change to control's metagame potential, even if it definitely will see more play.

As for Counterspell itself, I expect it to replace Mana Leak. There is no reason that a deck that could cast a 1U counterspell can't make a UU spell on turn two; just look at the Bring to Light decks. Counterspell will not completely replace the other counters, however. The more expensive ones (Cryptic Command and Archmage's Charm) have too much flexibility to drop. Force of Negation is free, and that will keep it in rotation. Remand will also stay, as it's too potent a tempo tool and doesn't see play in hard control much anyway.

The other niche counters will drop off, but probably won't disappear. Deprive still has value for landfall triggers, especially if something similar to Mystic Sanctuary comes along. Logic Knot loses its place as the best two-mana counter, but it won't disappear entirely. It's still the best two-mana counter that isn't Counterspell, and it has additional value. Delve means that Knot lets control sculpt its graveyard, such as proactively for Inverter of Truth or defensively against Tarmogoyf and Drown in the Loch. I also expect Spell Snare to resurface as an answer to Counterspell, but Veil of Summer is probably just better in that role.

The Prowess Killer?

Next is a card that is very near and dear to my Legacy deck, Sanctum Prelate. This is a card that players have speculated about ever since Containment Priest was reprinted in Core 2021. If one Death and Taxes creature from a Commander set was fine in Modern, why not two? Especially one with symmetrical disruption abilities rather than an annoying card advantage mechanic (*cough* Palace Jailer). In fact, I thought that Prelate was such an eventual shoe-in for Modern, I didn't even really consider it when I was speculating on MH2 back in December. It just makes sense as a disruptive white creature against noncreature spells that isn't just another taxing effect would eventually make its way to Modern. Especially in light of Elite Spellbinder.

Expectations

The title of this section really gives it away, doesn't it? Yes, the conversations about Prelate's arrival in Modern are primarily focused on its use against Prowess. And it makes perfect sense. The vast majority of Prowess' spells, particularly Boros but Izzet too, cost one mana. Mono-Red is less affected and could more easily escape Prelate lock thanks to Bonecrusher Giant. Given that Prowess variants are the most popular decks in Modern and Chalice of the Void isn't exactly keeping them down, more help is welcome. And Prelate has the big advantage of preventing Prowess from throwing spells away just to get prowess triggers. A very solid addition to Modern.

Of course, that's not the only application. Shutting off critical mana costs against control and combo (sweeper and engine cards respectively) also sounds good. Naming four against control decks and two against Storm will be Very Big Game, as well as four against Scapeshift decks. One deck I've heard discussed as targeted is Tron, but I expect that will just lead to grief. There was a time when naming seven would have been lights out for Tron, but that was five years ago. These days Tron has too many haymakers at different costs, and too many of them are creatures for that to be effective.

However, it is also worth remembering that Prelate can be used in a defensive way rather than the mentioned proactive manner. Should Prelate make its way into Heliod Company (a big ask, given how full the three-drop slot already is), it would use Prelate on one to protect against removal, allowing Heliod to combo off unmolested. I can't imagine this working out for any other deck, but it's important to remember the utility exists.

Legacy Says?

All that being said and from personal experience, the only way that Sanctum Prelate sees play in Legacy is a maindeck one-of as part of Recruiter of the Guard packages. Death and Taxes is most common, but Humans and Esper Vial also run that package. Depending on the metagame and other sideboard pressures, there will be another Prelate in the sideboard. Back in the Miracles era, it was usually correct to maindeck both Prelates, but that hasn't been necessary since that time. Two Prelates were essential in the grindfest which was Death and Taxes vs Miracles because you wanted the first set to one against Swords to Plowshares and the second on six against Terminus. Since then, the only real usage has been naming one against Delver or two against Lands.

The issue with Prelate in Legacy is that it costs three. That is far too much against most combo decks. Most Storm variants aim for a turn 2-3 combo and are capable of turn 1 kills, while Reanimator usually goes for it turn 1-2. That means that Prelate just closes the door on an already locked out opponent. I usually name four with Prelate against combo as a result. Against Delver, shutting off the cantrips and removal at any time is good, but after that Prelate is just a 2/2. That's very bad if you're already behind on board because now Swords is dead too.

Modern doesn't have anything like Recruiter, so Prelate will have to stand on its own. Fortunately, Modern combo is not fast enough to outpace Prelate, so it remains a viable anti-combo card. The small body is still a problem, but Humans has repeatedly proven that it can be overcome.

My Prediction

Prelate will definitely see at least some sideboard play. The effect is too strong against certain types of decks. However, I'm very skeptical of Prelate making any maindecks without a major and likely unhealthy metagame shift. Three mana is a lot, and more importantly, that is a very crowded mana cost in white creature decks. I don't think Prelate is sufficiently better than the existing options against sufficiently many decks for it to beat Mantis Rider, Archon of Emeria, or Spike Feeder any time soon. However, as a two-of in the sideboard for combo and control matchups, I think Prelate will be an excellent addition to Modern.

As for its impact, the overall impact will be muted. That's just how it goes with a sideboard card. However, the fear of getting Prelate locked, especially for Prowess, may drive them to diversify their spells. Bonecrusher is likely to get a lot more time in Modern, and I imagine sideboard answers will diversify as well just to keep from being beaten by a single card. However, Prowess may also just go more in on Kozilek's Return rather than worry about Prelate. Chatter indicates the former is likely, but I suspect the latter is more efficient.

Modern's Changing, Again

After a few calm sets, Modern is about to get shaken up again. Everything is now crossed for nothing even remotely Hogaak-esque. I'm just about to get paper back, and I want to be able to enjoy it.

A Dichotomy in Old Card Prices

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”  - Charles Dickens

After months of aggressive buying and supply shortage, some cards have finally settled into their “new price points”—not quite as high as their peak, but also off their lows. Some cards have retraced harder than others, as expected. What wasn’t expected, however, is how robustly some cards are continuing to trade. In fact, a couple cards are at or near their all-time highs on Card Kingdom’s buylist.

This dichotomy reminded me of the famous opening to Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities. For some cards, we’re still in the best of times. For others…well it’s hardly the “worst of times” but it’s certainly not as good. This week I’ll share updates on what cards remain hot and which ones have not.

Still Flying High

As I browse Card Kingdom’s hotlist, I see right off the bat some of the hottest cards on the market. Many are Reserved List cards, and while they may not be an “all-time high” buy price, I’ve noticed these buy prices have been on the climb rather than a decline.

For example, Mox Diamond shows up on the hotlist. The Stronghold printing has a buy price of $450—that’s not the peak, but it’s a good bit higher than the $400 offer Card Kingdom had posted just a week ago. They pay even more aggressively on the From the Vaults version, $650.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

Gaea's Cradle tops the hotlist with a buy price of $720, which has got to be near its high. Then we have the Dual Lands, which rallied to highs before pulling back significantly. Well, that pullback may be temporarily suspended because Card Kingdom is paying quite well on Revised duals once again:

Underground Sea: $660
Volcanic Island: $540
Tropical Island: $480
Bayou: $360
Badlands: $230
Taiga: $270
Scrubland: $260
Plateau: $250

Again, these prices aren’t their highest, but they are significantly off the lows they saw last month. Plateau’s number seems particularly strong—they were paying as low as $200 just over a week ago. The only two Revised Dual Lands not on their hotlist are Tundra and Savannah.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plateau

Other cards with still-high buy list prices include Island of Wak-Wak (jumped from mid-$200’s to $325 before dropping back to $300), Old Man of the Sea, Mana Crypt, Moat, Rasputin Dreamweaver, and Guardian Beast. Each of these are probably off all-time high buy prices, but not by as much as you’d think.

Lastly, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Unlimited Power, which remains at their highs. Card Kingdom has been able to restock a smattering of copies, and when they do they drop their buy price significantly. But the reality is, they often sell out of the copies they receive and when they do, they jack up their buy price all over again. Black Lotus currently sports a Card Kingdom high of $19,800. Their buy price on Timetwister is also very strong, $6,600. Compare this to Ancestral Recall, where they’re “only” offering $4,000 because they have two near mint copies in stock currently.

Cooling Off

Not every Reserved List card has faired so robustly. It’s obvious if a card that sees minimal play cools off, but some of these pullbacks aren’t on less desirable cards, so I can’t quite pinpoint why they’re not selling as well for Card Kingdom. Perhaps Card Kingdom simply overshot on their pricing to the upside, and now have to reduce inventory of these cards.

For example, currently Card Kingdom doesn’t have Eureka on their buylist at all. They simply aren’t buying the card. When I visit their site, I see that they have 21 copies currently listed, across all conditions, ranging from $1149.99 for Near Mint down to $804.99 for Good copies. These prices are about 10-15% above TCGplayer, which isn’t completely unreasonable for a retailer that offers trade credit bonuses. Something just must have cooled off on this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eureka

What perplexes me more is that Card Kingdom has plenty of Moats and The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales in stock, 15 and 12 respectively, yet they keep these two cards posted on their buylist with very attractive buy prices. I guess there’s a threshold between 15 copies and 21 copies where Card Kingdom’s algorithm puts a halt on things.

Speaking of halting buying, Card Kingdom took down their buy prices on a bunch of Unlimited Dual Lands. While Revised copies are returning to Card Kingdom’s hotlist, they have cooled off significantly on Unlimited copies. They currently don’t buy Unlimited Underground Sea, Volcanic Island, Tropical Island, Scrubland, Badlands, Taiga, and Plateau! When you view their stock of these cards, it’s no surprise. They have plenty of copies of Unlimited Dual Lands in stock now, and their prices aren’t exactly tempting. Something tells me these cards, along with some other Unlimited cards, are still cooling off pretty aggressively and have a ways to drop.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Island

Lastly, I want to touch on The Dark, which has its fair share of cards that have cooled off significantly. At one point, Card Kingdom was paying $100 on Goblin Wizard—now they don’t buy the card at all. They have 14 copies in stock, which isn’t as high as some others, so I’m not sure why the algorithm pulled this one off their list. In any event, the card’s TCGplayer market price went from $18 to $130—a 622% increase—in less than two years. So a cooldown is long overdue.

From The Dark, Mana Vortex is another one that’s off Card Kingdom’s buylist altogether for the time being, even though their inventory is only 11 copies. Other less-than-playable The Dark cards are also not on Card Kingdom’s buylist currently, including Cleansing and Grave Robbers. Even in cases where Card Kingdom doesn’t have dozens of copies in stock, I suspect their selling velocity on these cards is probably lower.

Interestingly, you can’t find a similar story with Antiquities, which also contains a bunch of little-played Reserved List cards with suddenly higher price tags. It seems Card Kingdom hasn’t been satisfied with their inventory on this set, as they still offer most noteworthy cards on their buylist.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tetravus

Wrapping It Up

In the early stages of the recent round of Reserved List buyouts, anything old seemed to be worth buying. The rising tide lifted all ships and lifted them all drastically. Now that the bull market is much more mature, not everything is still experiencing growth—many cards are retracing, as expected.

But what I didn’t expect was the split between the haves and have-nots. Some cards are still selling robustly even at new highs, while others have already seen their prices slashed in recent weeks.

For example, Unlimited cards are definitely cooling off whereas Antiquities cards apparently remain pretty strong. Revised Dual Lands had cooled off, but are now making a modest rebound whereas Unlimited Dual Lands remain soft. And within Legends and Arabian Nights, some cards are trading near highs whereas others are cooling off as Card Kingdom becomes satisfied with their inventory.

I can’t quite pinpoint any rhyme or reason for the dichotomy. It is probably a combination of a couple factors specific to Card Kingdom’s pricing practices. If Card Kingdom overshot on a price increase, they probably overstocked the card and now have to bleed out inventory before they’re willing to re-buy. On the other hand, if they upped their buy price too modestly, it would mean they still haven’t been able to restock sufficiently, so their buy price remains near highs.

At the end of the day, this probably is a local phenomenon…for the most part. But I always view Card Kingdom as at the forefront of pricing trends because of how dynamic their prices are. They aren’t always leaders, but they do react to trends with enough agility that I trust the fluctuations I see on their site. To that end, I’m going to be keeping an eye on the cards that are still climbing because there may still be a chance to pick up a few key cards before they reach their peak. Meanwhile, if you’re looking to trim, you could do worse than selling some of the cards that have cooled off most on Card Kingdom’s site as these likely overshot the most.

As we approach the re-opening of Magic events, it’ll be very interesting to see where prices go from here. One thing is for certain: I’ll be watching prices on these older cards very closely as trends unfold!

These Don’t Look Like Magic Cards: The Value of Funk

Posted on by Joseph Davidson

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

I've been hearing some variation of the phrase, "well these new cards don't really look anything like real Magic cards" almost since I started playing the game. Whether it was a change to how the frame looked, a full art promotional card, or something more extreme like the much likened to Yugioh (Amonket Expeditions), it seems players couldn't help but make the comparison to the default standard they had been raised on. In my experience, the player base I interacted with seemed to be torn: they either welcomed changes with open arms or they despised anything outside the norm.

More recently, Wizards has found the opportunity through Secret Lairs to really have fun with card design, pushing the limits of what people considered to be "Magic Cards" and developing some rather interesting pieces of art. When Kaldheim debuted, the Party Hard, Shred Harder Secret Lair announcement dropped jaws all over the Twittersphere with their metal imagery and lack of traditional well... anything really.

With the most recent Secret Lair drop, the Dr. Lair's Secretorium Superdrop, Wizards is continuing their experimentation with card form in several bundles from the drop with a play on full art lands that is just full text and a drop called Our Show Is On Friday, Can You Make It? in the same vein as the Party Hard drop that contains a handful of cards in bright, band poster-esque treatments that had some people on Twitter wondering who the audience for cards like that really was.

It's me. I'm the audience. That Preordain makes me salivate.

I've always been a huge fan of experimentation with Magic Art, and drops like this really push all my buttons. They're fun, funky, and scratch that "collector" itch something fierce. But, as a MTG Finance-minded person, I have to stop and wonder - is there any value to cards like these? How popular will they be? Is opening up my poor, poor wallet for yet another Secret Lair going to pay off down the line?

Well, you can never know for sure, but today we're going to look at the Party Hard, Shred Harder Secret Lair drop and see where the value of the singles is lying, how they compare to their original printings, and whether we think the Our Show Is On Friday, Can You Make It? drop will follow a similar pattern.

1. Assassin's Trophy

We're starting with the breakout card of the drop, Assassin's Trophy. A popular removal spell from Guilds of Ravnica, this particular Secret Lair printing is so popular that this alone pays for the whole drop, which originally retailed for $29.99.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Assassin's Trophy

The original printing is also managing to hold onto a fairly decent price, with non-foil set printings fetching around $16 in most places. This is a great removal spell in several formats, and the morbid art of the Secret Lair version is proving to be pretty popular with the Golgari players out there. Not every Secret Lair is going to have a banger like this inside, but I'm feeling pretty good about the copies I ordered from that particular batch.

2. Anguished Unmaking

Somehow I had missed how popular of a removal spell Anguished Unmaking had become, and was glad to find I'd kept my copies from that particular Standard season!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anguished Unmaking

There have been several "special" printings of the card, but the non-foil set printing is still fetching around $10 which is pretty decent for a card from that block, especially considering paper Magic is still forbidden in many places due to the Pandemic. The Secret Lair version fetches a premium though, hovering around the $17 dollar mark. I absolutely love the art on this one and can see why people would want it!

3. Dreadbore

We start to see much lower prices when we get to the rest of the cards from the drop, but they're still nothing to scoff at! The Secret Lair Dreadbore for instance, fetches a much higher price than any of its other printings!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dreadbore

Dreadbore was one of my favorite removal spells back in Return to Ravnica days, and its usefulness in Commander still has its original printing fetching around $3. However, I'm swapping out my original copies in my Commander decks for the Secret Lair one because WOW LOOK AT IT. There's a reason the fancy version is around $7 more expensive!

4. Decimate

Decimate was definitely the art from this Secret Lair that I desperately wanted on a t-shirt (it's not too late to give any of these a decent shirt printing Wizards! Please!) but also one of the ones I've played the least copies of its older printings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decimate

No earlier version of this card averages over $4 on TCGplayer, but plenty of Gruul Commander players find it to be a useful tool and the Secret Lair printing still commands almost double the price of its original printing!

5. Thraximundar

Thraximundar, a classic commander near and dear to many players' hearts (and the only one to get even a lame t-shirt printing) carries the lowest market price of the bunch.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thraximundar

Even though Thraximundar is a fun commander, none of its older printings fetch much more than a dollar - if that. Which, in context, makes the value of the Secret Lair printing fairly impressive I guess? The art is fantastic, and if I ever put together Thraximundar again I'm definitely going to be reaching for my copy from the Secret Lair I decided to let myself open. (I have to say, the quality of these was super impressive, by the way.)

So, Our Show Is On Friday, Can You Make It?

So, will the dramatic increase in singles value over original printings continue with the latest wild Secret Lair? Well, even though Party Hard ended up being pretty bonkers value, I'm not so sure. I don't think Decree of Pain, Gamble, Nature's Lore, Preordain, or Wrath of God have quite the following that all of the metal removal spells did, but I'd say it's close enough for me to think pretty seriously about picking more than one copy of the Lair up (and I guarantee I'll be trying to assemble at least one playset of the Preordains for my personal collection.) I'd say this is a pretty decent buy (so are the shock lands, but for different reasons) and would be worth taking a look at adding to your Secret Lair stash!

Also, I know I'm ignoring the full-text lands. I just... have no idea how to feel about them and whether or not the ridiculous novelty will attract any value.

Take care out there friends, I’ll catch you next week! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter, Twitch, YouTube, or in the QS Discord if you’d like to chat Magic!

A Building Wildfire: April ’21 Metagame Update

Posted on by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

The new month brings a new metagame update. And this time, there's nothing disruptive to report. No bannings, no weird and still-unexplained data gaps; just a perfectly normal bit of data gathering. Which means that I'll be delivering a straightforward metagame update. Which will be nice, since there's another Modern Horizons coming, and that might throw everything into chaos. It also may not, but doomsaying gets more hits than caution.

The data’s down from January, but significantly up from March. There were 515 decks in April, almost 100 more than March's 420 but down from January's 552. Which is still a respectable size, but nothing spectacular. However, it feels very odd, as this was the first month since December to feature a Preliminary with 5 rounds. I believe that the Showcase Challenge pushed out at least one normal Challenge, leading to the lower total, but I can't prove this. It's the only thing I've got since April was another All-Access month, which should have increased MTGO play. On the other hand, there may be nothing wrong and MTGO play is simply down, either due to fatigue or something happening on Arena.

I'll also note that I didn't include any non-Wizards events this month. I didn't need them, unlike in March, and I also didn't see any that appeared to be equivalent to a Challenge or even a Preliminary. If I missed something, do let me know. I don't know what I don't know, after all.

April Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce on MTGO. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough;” in April the average population was 7.92, meaning a deck needed 8 results to beat the average and make Tier 3. This is a pretty standard average as these go. Then we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. The STdev was 10.85, so that means Tier 3 runs to 19, and Tier 2 starts with 20 results and runs to 31. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 32 decks are required.

I've been approached a few times about using a confidence interval instead. That's what the old system used, and it is somewhat more statistical. I'm not opposed in theory, and will probably have to use the confidence interval once paper events come back. For now though, it's a bit more work for no real gain. A couple extra decks may sneak into Tier 3 depending on the data, and the exact tier composition will likely change, but the order of the decks will not, and that's more important.

The Tier Data

April's data being more complete than March's means that the individual decks were up from 61 to 65. Not a large increase, but the data isn't back to January's level, much less earlier months. Along with the total archetypes increasing, the tiered decks are up from 17 to 20, again just shy of January's mark. I'm constantly wondering if the wild swings in the number of archetypes are indicative of actual metagame shifts or player bias. I'm hoping it's the former because that's the whole point of this exercise. However, I can't discount players simply preferring certain decks regardless of the metagame nor that they're recursively metagaming. MTGO's competitive players are a pretty small and self-selecting group, after all. Not at all impossible that this is just measuring the biases of a small population. But there's nothing better at the moment. Hopefully that will change soon.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Heliod Company5911.46
Izzet Prowess377.18
Jund Death Shadow346.60
Eldrazi Tron326.21
Tier 2
Mono-Green Tron295.63
Burn254.85
UW Control203.88
Tier 3
Mono-Red Prowess173.30
Amulet Titan173.30
Niv 2 Light163.11
Boros Prowess152.91
5-Color Scapeshift152.91
Dredge142.72
Esper Control132.52
Ponza122.33
Hammer Time122.33
Yawgmoth122.33
4-Color Omnath91.74
Jund91.74
Jeskai Breach81.55

So, yeah, Heliod Company was on top. By a lot. Enough to be statistically and convincingly Tier 0. I actually checked to see if it qualified as an outlier, and the results were inconclusive. The typical mathematical measurements put all of Tier 1 into outlier territory, the more narrow ones put Heliod right on the edge, and the regressions said yes or no depending on how I entered the data. The best-fit lines had Heliod pegged as a clear outlier, but on a hunch I checked, and it was right on the exponential decay line. When I removed Heliod Company from the data, the average and STDev didn't change enough to make a difference. I want to say that yes, Heliod Company is an outlier in April based on intuition more than anything else. But that doesn't mean anything. However, I also have evidence of something odd about Heliod from the other metagame measurements.

Elsewhere in Modern

So, what's happening with the decks that aren't Heliod Company? Prowess, primarily. Izzet Prowess was the second best deck, followed closely by Jund Shadow, a deck with many Prowess elements. In Tier 3 there's Mono-Red Prowess and the newly minted Boros Prowess. There were also a few Rakdos and Grixis versions that didn't make the list. Put all the Prowess together and they'd exceed even Heliod Company by quite a bit. I'm inclined to think that the real power in the metagame is Monastery Swiftspear, not Heliod, Sun Crowned. Prowess being so popular means that Eldrazi Tron is back in a big way. The central deck strategy isn't particularly good against Prowess, but E-Tron is the only deck maindecking Chalice of the Void, which is very good against Prowess. This is a typical fluctuation; E-Tron always does well when Prowess is up and falls as soon as Chalice stops being good.

Speaking of aggregating decks, if I put the 5-Color decks together they would have just missed Tier 1 with 31 results. This is not an entirely ridiculous thing to do as 5-Color Scapeshift is Niv 2 Light, but without Niv-Mizzet Reborn, 80 cards, and Yorion, the Sky Nomad. And there was a very sudden switch between the decks. Up until the 16th, Niv was on track for Tier 1 placement. Then it seems players just got tired of playing 80 cards and dropped down to a more streamlined Bring to Light package serving Scapeshift. By the 22nd, Niv stopped appearing at all, and only Scapeshift remained. Had Niv remained the 5-Color deck or the diet begun earlier, then one of the decks would have been more than mid-Tier 3. Something to watch.

Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a decks that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects its metagame potential. Of course, the more popular decks will necessarily earn more points, but the difference in scale between the

Points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points according to how similar they are to Challenges or Preliminaries. Super Qualifiers and similar level events get an extra point if they’re over 200 players, and a fifth for over 400 players. There were 2 events that awarded 4 points in April and one which awarded 5 points. And that Super Qualifier had an outsized impact on the data.

The Power Tiers

The total points in April were up from March as I'd expect, from 760 to 928. Just like the population data, that's pretty average. The average points were 14.28, so 15 makes Tier 3. The STDev was 20.29, up noticeably from March, so Tier 3 runs to 36 points. Tier 2 starts with 37 points and runs to 58. Tier 1 requires at least 59 points. The new Jeskai Underworld Breach deck, Mentor Breach, which snuck onto the population tier was mainly a 3-1 Preliminary deck and so didn't get the points necessary to make the power tier. There was nothing to replace it, so this tier list is smaller.

Deck NameTotal PointsTotal %
Tier 1
Heliod Company10711.53
Izzet Prowess707.54
Jund Death Shadow667.11
Tier 2
Eldrazi Tron555.93
Mono-Green Tron535.71
Burn535.71
Tier 3
UW Control363.88
Niv 2 Light343.66
Amulet Titan333.55
Mono-Red Prowess313.34
5-Color Scapeshift272.91
Dredge262.80
Esper Control262.80
Yawgmoth232.48
Boros Prowess212.26
Ponza202.16
Hammer Time192.05
Jund192.05
4-Color Omnath171.83

I'm tempted to copy-paste everything I said about Heliod's absurd lead from the population section. It's to be expected that the most popular deck by a lot would also win the most points by a lot.

What's more interesting is how the rest of the list has changed. E-Tron was kicked out of Tier 1 and UW fell into Tier 3, indicating decks that are popular but not especially successful. UW is just under the cut to Tier 2, but considering that it was just over the line for Tier 2 in population I think the point stands. These are predatory decks and when their prey is sparse, they don't do well.

There was so much turmoil in Tier 3 that I can't really track it all. However, I find it interesting that Niv 2 Light has substantially more points than 5-Color Scapeshift considering that Niv only had one more deck place in April. This suggests that it was the more powerful deck or at least the deck that more rewarded gifted or dedicated pilots, which does muddy the waters for me about it being replaced. I will note that Niv is much harder to pilot than the newer version.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. Using the power rankings certainly helps, and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is.

However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is to look at how far-off a deck is from the baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The further away the greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, the deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite.

Deck NameAverage PointsTier
Niv 2 Light2.133
Burn2.122
Jund2.113
Esper Control2.003
Jund Death Shadow1.941
Amulet Titan1.943
Yawgmoth1.923
Izzet Prowess1.891
4-Color Omnath1.893
Dredge1.863
Mono-Green Tron1.832
Mono-Red Prowess1.823
Heliod Company1.811
UW Control1.803
5-Color Scapeshift1.803
Baseline1.74
Eldrazi Tron1.722
Ponza1.673
Hammer Time1.583
Boros Prowess1.43

The baseline is up from March, which is consistent with the higher population and point totals. As usual, the top slots are occupied mainly by Tier 3 decks. However, Niv 2 Light was very close to Tier 2, which further muddies the waters of it apparently being replaced, especially when 5-Color Scapeshift is just above baseline. Burn being the second-best deck was also surprising, but makes sense in retrospect since Eidolon of the Great Revel is quite strong against Prowess. I'd also like to call attention to Boros Prowess's utterly abysmal showing. The deck is not living up to its hype.

The Truth about Heliod

However, the big story is the one I've been building up to this entire article. Heliod Company, the deck that I suspected to be an outlier from the population and power rankings, didn't make the first page of the average power chart. It's a thoroughly medium performance, and it slotted in just above the baseline. By itself, this would indicate that Heliod was only on top due to insane popularity. However, I had a hunch to investigate, and it proved correct: the April 5 Super Qualifier had an outsized influence on Heliod Company's performance.

Heliod Company put three pilots into the Top 8 of that tournament, one more into Top 16, and two in Top 32. That's 25 points from one event, and is by far the best single day performance for a deck since I started this new system. And it was also the absolute high point of the month for Heliod Company. After that it lost a lot of steam and average points began falling. Rather than lots of 3-point performances, it was gathering single points. I don't know why that happened, but it absolutely happened. This made me suspect that Heliod isn't really an outlier so much as that event was.

So I tested my theory by making a copy of the overall data but removing every result from the April 5 Super Qualifier. And my suspicions were confirmed. All the top decks are impacted by the fall, but at 82 points, Company's points stop being a potential outlier. Izzet Prowess is still number 2 with 65 points, which remains a big gap, though not necessarily an atypical one. The more significant finding was that average power. Every deck lost a few points and the baseline fell to 1.71, but Heliod's average power fell to 1.54, the second worst result in the data. It's clear that Heliod is a winners' deck and that a lot of its success comes down not to the deck, but to who's been playing it. As such, I'd worry more about the high performances of Jund Shadow or Izzet Prowess.

A Snapshot in Time

That's it for April's update. MTGO's metagame continues to churn, but I'm starting to tease out the evidence that it isn't actually representative. Hopefully, the pandemic will be sufficiently under control that paper Magic can start to return in May, just in time for Modern Horizons 2. And then we get to see how different the metagame truly is.

April ’21 Brew Report: Little Guys Rule

Posted on by Jordan Boisvert

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

The month after a new set release is always an exciting time in the 5-0 dumps: full of churn, upheaval, and of course, ideas! In these periods, players are far less concerned with identifying metagame direction and innovating solutions to emerging trends; indeed, attempting to do so this early might prove a fool's errand anyway. Instead, their focus becomes consumed by the allure of the new, spurring them to test out any and every crazy idea they had during spoiler season against established Modern stalwarts and, most exciting of all, other players following their own crazy intuition.

By now, the dust around Strixhaven has begun to settle, with hyped uncommon Clever Lumimancer ending up falling short of initial expectations. So the piles April successful enough to earn publication on Wizards's site all merit at least a closer look.

Token Trouble

First on our agenda are the myriad strategies wielding the littlest guys (tokens) in novel or unpredictable ways.

Time Warp Polymorph, FJ_RODMAN (5-0)

Creatures

2 Velomachus Lorehold

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Sorceries

4 Explore
4 Farseek
2 Polymorph
4 Savor the Moment
4 Time Warp
4 Transmogrify

Instants

2 Valakut Awakening

Enchantments

4 Fires of Invention
4 Omen of the Sea

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Dwarven Mine
1 Ketria Triome
1 Mountain
1 Raugrin Triome
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
4 Steam Vents
2 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Chalice of the Void
3 Cleansing Wildfire
3 Timely Reinforcements
4 Veil of Summer
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

Time Warp Polymorph takes that old Dwarven Mine-into-Polymorph idea from February 2020 a step further, ditching Emrakul, the Aeons Torn for the brand-new Velomachus Lorehold. The million-dollar question: how come? Emrakul has long been considered the premier creature to cheat into play, and Polymorph, which sifts through the entire deck in search of any creature, one of the most reliable ways to do so.

For one, Time Warp Polymorph has the option of playing like a regular Taking Turns deck, albeit one focused on generating value by stacking different planeswalker activations. Savor the Moment is perfect in this kind of shell, as untapping lands doesn't affect the ability of planeswalkers to activate each turn.

Then there's the combo element, which casts Polymorph or Transmogrify on a token made by Dwarven Mine to cheat out Velomachus Lorehold. Barring interaction from the opponent, the deck then wins on the spot. Lorehold swings and finds a Time Warp to cast in the top seven cards. Then, the deck takes its next turn and repeats the process until the opponent has lost! Again, Savor the Moment doesn't interfere with the plan, as Lorehold's vigilance prevents the untap phase from mattering too much during the combo.

This combo is similar to one we've seen in the past utilizing Narset, Enlightened Master. But Narset only looked at the top four cards, not seven, making fizzling out a very real possibility. Lorehold is much more consistent, and can even be hard-cast for seven mana after Turns has grinded out enough land drops with its namesake effects and Wrenn and Six, making the deck less dependent on assembling the Polymorph combo or dodging small removal spells like Bolt and Push. The deck can and has also been built using Indomitable Creativity, so an optimal version has yet to be established.

Mentor Breach, OURANOS139 (3-1, Preliminary #12289682)

Creatures

4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
3 Monastery Mentor
1 Thassa's Oracle

Planeswalkers

4 Teferi, Time Raveler

Enchantments

4 Underworld Breach

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Instants

3 Lightning Bolt
2 Opt
2 Path to Exile

Artifacts

1 Aether Spellbomb
1 Chromatic Star
2 Engineered Explosives
3 Grinding Station
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Mox Amber

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Raugrin Triome
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Seachrome Coast
2 Spirebluff Canal
1 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Aether Gust
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Dispel
3 Lightning Helix
3 Mystical Dispute
2 Rip Apart
2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Wear // Tear

Mentor Breach is a deck that combines the combo potential of Underworld Breach and Emry, Lurker of the Loch with a Monastery Mentor plan for when opponents interact with the graveyard. The two plans mesh well, as they attack from separate angles, often requiring different kinds of hate, but also make good use of the same resource: cheap artifacts. This version seems particularly resilient, boasting a full set of Teferi, Time Raveler to ensure the combo materializes safely on the critical turn. And if all else fails, we should well know by now that 1-power prowess creatures are the real deal in Modern, especially alongside like-minded creatures!

So Monastery Mentor is good enough to splash as an engine. Why doesn't Rakdos play it? Oh yeah! Because it's white! But... what if it wasn't?

Rakdos Pyromancer, CAPIN_AHAB (5-0)

Creatures

4 Young Pyromancer
4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Sedgemoor Witch
2 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger
2 Bedlam Reveler

Sorceries

2 Dreadbore
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize

Instants

2 Cling to Dust
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Village Rites

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blightstep Pathway
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Marsh Flats
1 Mountain
3 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Cling to Dust
1 Kolaghan's Command
4 Cleansing Wildfire
2 Collective Brutality
1 Deathmark
2 Grim Lavamancer
2 Infernal Reckoning
1 Plague Engineer

Cue this new build of Rakdos Pyromancer, which utilizes Sedgemoor Witch as a makeshift Mentor. Sure, Witch doesn't trigger off Baubles. But neither does Young Pyromancer, which gives the pairing some cohesion. Additionally, Witch covers for one of Mentor's historically deal-breaking Modern drawbacks: it costs three and dies to Lightning Bolt. For that to happen with Witch, opponents are forced to first Bolt themselves, a condition that meshes exceedingly well with an aggressive strategy in Modern's most aggressive colors. Tack on the repeated damage from Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger and Bolt, and opponents may have a tough time staying in the game even if they deal with Rakdos's actual attackers.

To further isolate against removal, Village Rites turns a doomed Pyromancer or other threat into a couple of cards, and can also be used proactively to "Skullclamp" those tokens. If it's all in the luck of the draw, who can argue with more draws?

Spelling Doom

The next couple decks cast a flurry of spells to take their small fries to the big leagues.

“Grixis Grow, EDHPLAYER (5-0)"

Creatures

4 Sprite Dragon
3 Snapcaster Mage

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Sorceries

2 Angrath's Rampage
1 Unearth

Instants

3 Archmage's Charm
1 Cling to Dust
3 Cryptic Command
4 Drown in the Loch
2 Fatal Push
1 Into the Story
1 Kolaghan's Command
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Logic Knot
4 Thought Scour

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Cascade Bluffs
1 Drowned Catacomb
4 Island
4 Polluted Delta
1 Prismatic Vista
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Sunken Ruins
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
4 Cleansing Wildfire
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
2 Pithing Needle
4 Thoughtseize

For a long while, I called my brand of Delver of Secrets decks "grow" decks; the name was retired in favor of "thresh" as I noticed an increasing disparity between what my decks were doing and what the original Gro-a-Tog and Miracle Grow strategies had in mind, which was more to control the pace of the game with instants and sorceries before using 1-2 highly efficient threats (such as Querion Dryad, Tarmogoyf, Psychatog) to close out the game in short order. In the creature-centric Modern format, such a deck has never really existed outside of some fringe-ish Dig/Cruise decks leveraging Young Pyromancer (the kind playing 8 or fewer threats).

Preamble terminated! What we have here is Grixis Grow, a bonafide control deck with some reversibility. Depending on the matchup, it can stick a quick Sprite Dragon and then trade on resources until the opponent's dead, or trade on reseources until the opponent's out of steam, then stick a quick Sprite Dragon to put things away. This reversibility gives it an edge in the current metagame, where it can function as a midrange deck against the hyper-aggressive prowess and Shadow strategies or as a tempo deck against the big mana and combo decks.

Grow decks traditionally rely on card advantage to put them ahead while trading resources, and this deck turns to control staples like Cryptic Command and Archmage's Charm to fill that role. It's also got Lurrus as a commander and 3 Snapcaster Mages in the main, making grinding with creatures a possibility.

Magecraft Blitz, KOKEMEN47 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Clever Lumimancer
4 Leonin Lightscribe
2 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Nivmagus Elemental

Sorceries

4 Ground Rift

Instants

4 Flusterstorm
4 Gut Shot
4 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
4 Mutagenic Growth

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Steam Vents
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

3 Kor Firewalker
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Path to Exile
2 Postmortem Lunge
3 Rip Apart
2 Shattering Spree
1 Soul-Guide Lantern

I'd be remiss to totally snub Clever Lumimancer, clearly the big story coming into the Strixhaven metagame. But as David penned last month, players soon found themselves divided over sinking too much into Lumimancer to make it work, and were finding that it wasn't necessarily worth running at all without some amount of shell redesign. Which brings us to Magecraft Blitz, a deck that stocks up on similar creatures (other buffing magecraft guys) to make that extra effort pay off.

Like Lumimancer, both Leonin Lightscribe and Nivmagus Elemental generate big swings with cheap storm spells, in this case Ground Rift and Flusterstorm. The pricier Lightscribe buffs all the creatures, while Nivmagus stays big in future turns, giving each its niche in the deck and bringing the functional number of Lumimancers to 12.

After all, Lumimancer isn't just some all-around-good prowess creature; it requires a specific shell to shine, and that's exactly what's been created here. Nonetheless, Monastery Swiftspear does make the cut, as it's way too efficient for this kind of spell-based aggressive strategy to leave out.

Size Ain't Nothing But a Measurement

There's plenty bubbling under Modern's surface; the little guys are just one such party ready for their shrieks and squeaks to be heard by the plenty. Which post-Strixhaven decks have you tickled?

How Could Magic Go Mainstream?

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More
Sign Up

In 2021, I suspect nearly everyone has heard of Pokémon. Sure, everyone’s awareness of the franchise is going to vary greatly. Some may be intimately familiar with the card game, various Game Boy games, and cartoon series. Others may only have heard of Pikachu and not much else. When I was a kid, Pokémon was a cartoon and Game Boy game to be played by nerds. Nowadays, the franchise has gone mainstream.

Perhaps this is why Pokémon cards are sold out all over the place, and my local Meijer grocery limits Pokémon purchases on a per-customer basis. They don’t even put the products on their CCG shelves anymore—to purchase Pokémon cards, you need to ask an employee to get you your allocation from some hidden location.

When I’m browsing the CCG section now, all I basically see on the shelves are Magic cards. Apparently, Magic cards aren’t selling as briskly and don’t demand the same protocols. But why is that?

Well for one, Magic, while a popular game, still doesn’t have the same broad reach and familiarity as Pokémon. But could this change? It’s possible, but not as easy as you’d think. Allow me to explain.

The Pharma Bro: An Anecdote

Back in 2016, Martin Shkreli, known colloquially as “Pharma Bro”, made a Reddit post that shook the Magic world.

"Hi everyone. I'm new to the game. I'm looking to acquire some rare cards. I am a collector of wine, art and other goods. Can someone give me some resources on collecting rare cards? Specifically I've been told black lotus cards are very valuable. Also has anyone had any insight on Hasbro's intention for the company?

Thanks, Martin"

Once this post went live, Twitter and Reddit replied en masse with attempts to help. Everyone wanted their fifteen minutes of fame, and share suggestions on which Magic cards to invest in. Martin proceeded to claim he had already purchased five Black Lotuses and was on the hunt for more.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Because of his infamy, many speculators and investors thought this could be a catalyst to help Magic make the leap into the mainstream, sending card prices much higher. Any such hopes did not last long, however. Martin had many legal issues to attend to, and he couldn’t maintain the trolling façade for very long. I haven’t even heard the guy’s name in the news since 2016. Perhaps that’s because he’s currently detained in a Federal Correctional Complex (aka prison), serving a seven-year term.

The hype was there, it was fleeting, and then it disappeared.

Fast Forward to Today

Last week, Magic finance once again broke into mainstream media via an exclusive article written by TMZ. The headline says it all:

It’s pretty clear the authors of this article are not intimately familiar with MTG finance. If they were, they probably wouldn’t have been so impressed that a person spent thousands on Magic cards…anyone who plays Vintage knows this feeling. Nowadays it’s fairly commonplace to see a four-figure Magic card, and Black Lotuses are pretty much cemented as five-figures in price.

That aside, it’s certainly impressive that a mainstream music artist is hanging around Magic card shops buying singles for decks. Post Malone has had multiple number one hits, and his Twitter following numbers 6.9 million. For comparison, the official Wizards of the Coast Magic: The Gathering Twitter account has 287.6 thousand, or roughly 4% of Post Malone’s. With this kind of following, Magic is surely to get broader exposure.

There are other famous people who are known to play Magic. Hunter Pence, an outfielder for the San Francisco Giants (Major League Baseball team) is one of the most well-known. As recently as a couple weeks ago, Hunter was playing Magic on Twitch for charity.

This will also surely increase visibility for Magic.

Crossover Sets

In all honesty, I don’t think Hunter Pence and Post Malone can make Magic go mainstream—not by themselves. The game is still simply too complicated and the game pieces are a bit too niche. Everyone recognizes Pokémon and many collectors are interested in the game’s cards even though they don’t play the game itself. Pikachu or Charizard cards are still widely recognizable even without any in-depth knowledge of the game.

In Magic, it’s not so straightforward…yet. Up until now, 99% of cards depict a fantasy world. With few exceptions (e.g. Arabian Nights, Walking Dead cards, My Little Pony cards), people outside of Magic simply won’t have heard of the names and places cited on cards. Sure, a card like Jace, the Mind Sculptor is iconic, but there’s no mainstream crossover for people unfamiliar with the card game to want a “Jace card” in the same way they’d chase after a “Pikachu card.”

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

But this is all about to change as Wizards of the Coast works on full crossover sets. In July 2021, Wizards will drop a Dungeons & Dragons crossover Magic set, called Dungeons & Dragons: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. This set will contain classic D&D elements on Magic cards. So if there was a D&D character or theme that got its own Magic card, it could be an instance where people could want to collect certain cards without being interested in playing the game itself.

It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely. Dungeons & Dragons isn’t exactly mainstream either…not on the same order of magnitude as Pokémon, at least.

There will also be a Lord of the Rings-themed Magic set. Lord of the Rings has major reach given the success of its movies. But will it be enough to send Magic into the mainstream? I’m still skeptical.

What Will It Take?

You can sense my skepticism in the paragraphs above, right? Despite Post Malone’s posts, and Hunter Pence’s streaming, and full-blown crossover fantasy sets in Magic, I still don’t see the game going “mainstream” in the same way Pokémon…or even Chess…has gone. The game is just so complex and difficult to penetrate, and the game’s characters and imagery aren’t well-known and understood enough to make it a mainstream collectible à la Pokémon.

What would it take, in my opinion, to have Magic make it to mainstream? I believe a couple of major catalysts would be required for this to happen.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jaya Ballard, Task Mage

For instance, a hit miniseries on Netflix, Hulu, etc. would do the trick. The pandemic has already been a major boon to chess, but the popularity of The Queen’s Gambit on Netflix was a major factor in boosting chess’s popularity recently. A similarly popular show about Magic in any capacity—even if it was just a minor subtheme about the main character—would drive Magic’s popularity significantly. It’s similar with Dungeons & Dragons’ rise in popularity due to the show Stranger Things. Magic wouldn’t have to be the primary focus, just featured enough to spark interest in mainstream media.

Another route would be if famous people who enjoy the game started integrating it further into their daily social media outreach. A TMZ article about Post Malone buying Magic cards is certainly cool, but it’s going to be a flash in the pan for Magic. However, if Post Malone started playing regularly, maybe posted some pictures of himself playing other famous artists on social media, then the game would start to gain traction. In a facetious, more extreme circumstance, a Post Malone song about Black Lotus would drastically increase the world’s awareness of at least that card within the world of Magic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seething Song

The other route I can think of is if Hasbro can take Magic, manipulate it somehow, and create a simpler, faster spinoff of the game that a broader audience can enjoy. They already tried this once with the Magic board game, and it was an utter failure (I remember seeing this game marked down significantly on clearance). I don’t know how Hasbro can achieve success with this approach, but their innovation with Monopoly tells me it’s possible. The game wouldn’t even have to feature complex Magic rules—even if it just featured some of the IP of the game, it could be enough to boost interest in collecting certain cards.

Wrapping It Up

Magic cards have been soaring in value throughout this pandemic. I don’t think this is necessarily due to a sudden surge in demand (outside of FOMO). Rather, I think there are some major supply constraints because of the pandemic and the shutdown of large events. When the world reopens, a new equilibrium will be found and prices will settle.

One way Magic prices could surge again would be if the game went mainstream, akin to chess or Pokémon. It’s not there yet, and I don’t think recent events and sets on the horizon will be sufficient to get it there. As influential as Post Malone and Hunter Pence can be, they aren’t sufficiently integrated into the game’s social network.

Therefore, I believe it will require a greater catalyst for the card game to “make it” to the big times. A hit series on Netflix, more frequent involvement of famous players, and a successful spin-off game could be a few ways for Magic to explode into mainstream. But it’s not quite there yet.

Of course, given the fragility of Magic’s supply—particularly of cards from Magic’s earliest sets (1993-1994), we really don’t need a catalyst to send prices higher in the long term. And it doesn’t take a famous person to put a dent in the market. Anyone with deeper pockets and an appreciation for Magic can make waves from a financial perspective. If someone decided to spend a million bucks on Magic cards, they could really impact the market…the supply is that sparse, especially on Alpha and Beta cards.

Because of this, I don’t think a mainstream catalyst is even necessary to drive prices higher. It would accelerate such a move, but it’s not necessary. Prices will continue to climb on their own volition, as long as Magic maintains its current popularity. Any mainstream exposure is strictly upside.

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Start Using Trader Tools

Latest Magic Sets

Marvel Super Heroes
Marvel Super Heroes Commander
Through the Omenpaths 2
Marvel Super Heroes Tokens
Secrets of Strixhaven Mystical Archive
Secrets of Strixhaven Tokens
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander
Secrets of Strixhaven
Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Tokens
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Eternal Tokens
Browse All Sets
Yawgmoth Thran Physician Wrath of the Skies Wistfulness Weapons Manufacturing Wan Shi Tong Vivi Ornitier Violent Outburst Umezawa’s Jitte Ugin Eye of the Storms Tamiyo Inquisitive Student tameshi reality architect Spider-Punk Solitude Shifting Woodland Sewer-veillance Cam Ruby Medallion Ragavan Nimble Pilferer Quantum Riddler Psychic Frog Primeval Titan

ION Suite

Discover ION Scanner and ION Retail.
Quiet Speculation