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Offspring’s Revenge: The Most Fun You’ll Have in Standard?

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Okay, okay, I know that was a clickbait-y title, but I couldn't help myself. Last week during one of my weekly Arena Twitch streamsĀ a viewer by the name of lordwillxĀ stopped by and asked if I wanted to test out a Standard deck they'd come up with. Now, I love testing out submitted lists from my chat on stream, but sometimes they're still pretty rough or end up being an archetype I'm not a fan of. It's always a good time either way, but I was definitely not expecting a random new follower's list to become my new Standard obsession.

They sent me a deck featuring both Doom Foretold and Offspring's Revenge, and let me tell you, friends - it's a bonafide masterpiece. Playing this deck has not only been some of the most fun I've had this Standard season, but it's also resulting in some of the most wins I've had in the past few months. So first, a huge shoutout to lordwillx for sending me their list! Thank you, thank you, thank you! Let's take a look at my deck tech video for the deck (and maybe hit that subscribe button if you have the time?) and then I'll break down the list and see if we can't find any potential Standard specs while having a blast jamming games on Arena.

Okay, let's break it down. Here's the list I used in my video (and here's a link to lordwillx's list that they've been updating):

Revenge of the Offspring

Enchantments

3 Offspring's Revenge
3 Doom Foretold
4 Tymaret Calls the Dead
1 Treacherous Blessing

Creatures

4 Skyclave Apparition
4 Mire Triton
4 Acquisitions Expert
2 Charming Prince
1 Rankle, Master of Pranks
1 Drana, the Last Bloodchief
1 Ox of Agonas
1 Harmonious Archon

Instants and Sorceries

1 Bloodchief's Thirst
1 Inscription of Ruin
1 Cling to Dust

The Planeswalker

2 Liliana, Waker of the Dead

Lands

4 Brightclimb Pathway
4 Fabled Passage
2 Mountain
2 Needleverge Pathway
2 Plains
4 Savai Triome
2 Swamp
2 Temple of Malice
4 Temple of Silence

Okay, wow, that's a pile of cards, right? If you want to export it straight into Arena, feel free to grab the list I'm currently usingĀ here or use lordwillx's list I linked above. Now, let's start breaking the list down!

The Enchantments

The enchantments are definitely the backbone of this crazy list, so that's where we'll start.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Offspring's Revenge

Offspring's Revenge is the namesake of this deck and having one on the table is when the deck is going to be performing at its nutty best. For five mana, you get an enchantment that, at the beginning of combat, brings back a white, black, or red creature from your graveyard as a 1/1 token that still has all of its effects and such. Basically, everything else in the deck is there to set up awesome Offspring's Revenge turns.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tymaret Calls the Dead

Tymaret Calls the Dead is one of the big Offspring's Revenge enablers in the deck. It mills cards and makes you blockers, ideally also gaining you life at step three, keeping you in the game long enough to get your Offspring's Revenge out and bringing back the creatures that it dumped in the graveyard for you. I always try to exile an enchantment with it if I can, but sometimes you're going to have to bite the bullet and exile your least useful creature from the bin to gain a blocker.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doom Foretold

Look, I'm not sure this deckĀ hasĀ to run Doom Foretold but it's a fun card to play and I almost never regret having it as an option. It's basically a four mana removal spell at it's worst, which is fine - but it's got several upsides. If you can get it to stick for awhile on a full board it is a huge headache for your opponent, and it can serve to put creatures back into your own graveyard to feed Offspring's Revenge. Plus, it gets rid of your one Treacherous Blessing if you happen to have it on the table. Doom Foretold is good fun.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treacherous Blessing

We run a one-of Treacherous Blessing as a way to help draw cards or feed Tymaret Calls the Dead. I'm always happy when I draw it, but not happy enough to run more than one.

The Creatures

Okay, so the whole idea behind Offspring's Revenge is to bring back good, value-generating creatures - so what's our creature package look like?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skyclave Apparition

We are, of course, running a playset of Skyclave Apparation. Anyone who has been reading my articles knows how much I love this card. It is a fantastic way to slow down your opponent or even stop their gameplan in its tracks, and being able to get repeat value out of them with Offspring's Revenge is so much fun. There's a lot of creatures being played in Standard right now where replacing them with a token is a huge advantage for you. Skyclave Apparation is an all-star in this deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ox of Agonas

Ox of Agonas is another card I've written about recently, and even though we're only running it as a one-of right now in the deck it is still one of my favorite pieces. You don't have to feel bad about milling it or discarding it because of it's escape ability and you're actually going to want to escape it several times during a match if you can. Being able to dump creatures from your hand into your graveyard for Offspring's Revenge always feels good, and so does drawing cards when your hand is empty. I'm a huge fan of the Ox.

We have two one-of mythic creatures in Drana, the Last Bloodchief and Harmonious Archon. At the time of writing this, I've been thinking about cutting the one copy of Harmonious Archon for something else (although I notice that lordwillx is running two now...) because I've been a little underwhelmed by its performance. However, when it's good it'sĀ veryĀ good. Bringing this back with Offspring's Revenge will turn the rest of your 1/1 tokens into 3/3s, which can swing the game in your favor if your opponent doesn't also have a full board of creatures.

Drana, the Last Bloodchief is a card I'm testing at the suggestion of my friend and fellow streamer MrOceanMTG - and I've been liking it a lot. Forcing your opponent to choose a creature for you to bring back is pretty amusing and in most cases where I've had Drana on the board also pretty darn good. I don't think I'd run more than one copy, because Drana is best as a one-of threat you bring back with Offspring's Revenge, but I definitely value that one copy in the deck pretty highly.

We're running two copies of Charming Prince and one copy of Rankle, Master of Pranks, both of which bring interesting value to the table. Charming Prince is fantastic in this deck, with all three of its abilities being useful depending on where we are at in the game. Most of the time in the early game you're going to use the prince to help you dig for an Offspring's Revenge or gain life if you're falling way behind. The exile ability can be super useful for getting double value from creatures you have on the battlefield in the later game. This card is so good, I wouldn't mind running another copy (which it looks like lordwillx decided to do recently, checking their list.)

Rankle, Master of Pranks can be super useful for discarding creatures into your graveyard for your Offspring's Revenge, sacrificing creatures to put into your graveyard for Offspring's Revenge, or drawing a card in a pinch. It's not a card you need to see every game, but I'm rarely disappointed when I dump one into the bin and bring it back.

We round out our creatures with playsets of two fantastic value-packed uncommons in Mire Triton and Acquisitions Expert. Mire Triton is amazing at dumping creatures into the bin for your Offspring's Revenge and then being a fantastic blocker with deathtouch. I love bringing back Mire Tritons to keep the value train going. Acquisitions Expert is great early game for keeping your opponent low on cards and being able to recur them with Offspring's Revenge feels great. You'll only ever get your opponent to reveal one card, but most of the time one is enough!

The Instants and Sorceries

Currently, we're only running three total instants and sorceries.

Bloodchief's Thirst and Inscription of Ruin are both in the deck as decent little one-ofs to help us out if we need to remove a creature, make our opponent discard, or bring back one of our smaller, value creatures. I've been going back and forth on how useful having these as one-ofs really is, but so far they've been decent enough.

Cling to Dust however, is a one-of instant I am always stoked on in the deck. You'll be dumping enough cards in your graveyard to be able to use it frequently to draw cards or gain life in a pinch. I'm a big fan of this card.

A Planeswalker

We've got two copies of a planeswalker to keep all of our zombies company.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Waker of the Dead

Liliana, Waker of the Dead really fits the flavor of this deck in a cool way. I wasn't super hyped on her right when she was spoiled, but after using her in this deck I realize I wasn't giving her a fair shake. Most of the time you'll just be using her as removal, but being able to discard creatures to Offspring's Revenge is really good too. I've only gotten the emblem once in my testing, and I doubt many games will last long enough for it to happen again, but I can attest that when it happens it's super fun.

The Lands

The land base is definitely on the slower side, featuring four Savai Triome, four Temple of Silence and two Temple of Malice, but I rarely feel like the tapped lands are keeping us behind. Playing this deck is more like a marathon than a sprint, so you want to be making wise choices with your tapped lands and using your small creatures to keep your opponents at bay until you build up the mana base to get your creatures out.

I'm going to shoutout the Brightclimb Pathways because I think the new Pathways are super neat and I love playing with them.

Final, Financial Thoughts

Okay, let's be honest here: this deck isn't going to revolutionize standard and skyrocket the prices of the cards in the list. If paper Magic were a thing right now (thanks, COVID) I would be pushing this deck as a fun, relatively cheap way to go have a blast at FNM. It clocks in at a little less than $150 for the main deck, which isn't super budget but still on the cheaper side for a fairly competitive Standard build. I've been playing it on Arena,Ā and it will definitely run you a good amount of wild cards if you don't already have the cards as I did.

However, I think this deck does a great job of highlighting some of the cards I've been writing about lately: Skyclave Apparation, Ox of Agonas and the Pathways are all cards I think people should be keeping an eye on right now and have spots in my speculation box.

Well, folks, that's it for me this week! I hope you are all having a great start to your November. What do you think of this list? Would you sleeve it up? Feel free to hit me up on any of the social medias @MTGJoeD, leave a comment on the YouTube video, or come watch me play it live on Twitch and let me know what you think! As always, you can find me in the QS Discord, and I'll see you next week! Take care of yourselves out there.

Practical Example: A League Story

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Alright, now. Everybody exhale. Last week is over. We can all try to grind our way through the rest of the year. We've been through enough already. Now it's time for some lighter fare, especially the kind that used to be my bread and butter. Then, the lockdown rendered then impossible. I am of course talking about practical metagame experience, meaning a tournament report.

Or a League one, anyway. Unfortunately, I've not been able to make a Challenge or Prelim on MTGO in a while. That's how it goes. However, in a lot of ways, this works out for my purposes. Actually playing tournaments is the only way to evaluate the accuracy of metagame predictions, and Leagues show a far greater spread of decks than the premier events. This is at least partially thanks to the League postings being curated, but even those curated results have to be the result of the overall population. And more players participate in Leagues than premier events. So by entering Leagues I may not get hit the most competitive lists, but IĀ will get the most accurate look at what everyone isĀ actually playing.

The Deck

It will probably come as no surprise, but I'm currently playing Death and Taxes on MTGO. I mentioned it back when paperĀ Magic went into quarantine, but I don't like putting money into digital cards. Even with the rental services, it's necessary to have a decent collection to readily switch decks, and I don't want to pay for cards that may disappear one day. So I've just been grinding away with the Humans deck I've had since 2017. However, I also play Legacy on MTGO, meaning I had just about everything for DnT already. I just needed to buy the new cards and I was ready to go.

Death and Taxes, David Ernenwein (League 4-1)

Creatures

4 Giver of Runes
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Flickerwisp
4 Skyclave Apparition
2 Archon of Emeria

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Maul of the Skyclaves
1 Batterskull

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

11 Plains
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Field of Ruin

Sideboard

4 Auriok Champion
2 Winds of Abandon
2 Disenchant
2 Phyrexian Revoker
2 Rest in Peace
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Aven Mindcensor

The maindeck is fairly standard. I know I previously said that I liked Restoration Angel over Archon, but the meta's changed towards more non-basics and less removal. The land tax is more important.

As for the sideboard, I've found playing Humans that Champion does so much in so many matchups that it would take aĀ significant shift towards red sweepers to make me want Burrenton Forge-Tender. Winds of Abandon rounds out the anti-creature package. As I've mentioned, if you're going to run artifact destruction, run spells, not creatures. DnT is already vulnerable to Torpor Orb, so don't play into it with Leonin Relic-Warder. I'm starting to sour on Gideon as my grindy matchup curve-topper since red spells are so prevalent, but I haven't found anything better.

The League

For those unaware, MTGO Leagues aren't tournaments per-se. Rather, you queue up and get matched with another player. MTGOĀ says that matches are made based on record, preferably the same or similar ones. I know from experience that the pairings are closer to random because League composition is pretty random and there isn't always someone else in matchmaking with a record even similar to yours. Each player gets 5 matches and earns prizes based on final record.

I joined this League on Nov. 1 and finished Nov. 3. During that time I never had to queue for more than 20 seconds. I'm curious what other player's queue times are: was this good or bad? I genuinely don't know, but it might help indicate how popular Modern actually is on MTGO. Shorter times should equal more players, just like the tournament practice rooms. The first match launched almost immediately after I hit the button.

Match 1: 5-Color Pile (1-0)

As a reminder since it's been awhile, I indicate starting hands in parentheses for each game as well as whether I was on the play or the draw. My starting total is first, then the opponent's.

Game 1, W (Draw, 7-5)

My opponent's first four turns play out as follows: play Indatha Triome, play Raugrin Triome, play Zagoth Triome, then do nothing twice. I have Vial, Thalia plus Vialed Giver, then Archon. The opponent's only impact on the board is to play a Teferi, Time Raveler to bounce my Vial after drawing a Forest. They then continue to do nothing until death.

Sideboarding:

-2 Path to Exile
-2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

+2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
+2 Rest in Peace

Despite having seen basically nothing from my opponent game 1, I know that they're on an Uro pile of some description. I also know that it was ridiculously tilted towards beating other piles, because at the end of the game my opponent showed me their hand of 4 Aether Gust, 2 Veil of Summer, and a Remand. They must have really expected a League of midrange matches. All the Triomes means it must also be five-color, so I board for a massive grind-fest.

Game 2, W* (Draw, 7-7)

And game two does not disappoint. My opponent has fetchlands for untapped mana, then curves Wrenn and Six into Liliana of the Veil, Teferi, Time Raveler, and Omnath, Locus of Creation. I grind back with Stoneforge and Apparations, answering every card and playing around removal on my Apparitions during combat as much as possible. Eventually my opponent Supreme Verdicts, clearing the board. At this point, they have ~10 lands and six cards in hand with Wrenn and Six on the board. I also have ~10 lands, two Vials, a Maul of the Skyclaves, Rest, and no cards in hand. I'm pretty unlikely to win this game. But so is my opponent, and that's far more relevant here.

See, at this point, my opponent has ~20 cards left in their deck. Due to attrition from the long, hard grind, they can have at most 2 Cryptic Command and 2 Omnath left in their deck. Two each are already exiled. I've killed three T3feris, two Lilianas, a Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, and two Jace, the Mind Sculptors. I've also destroyed two Field of the Deads. This is important because my opponent is playing like they have multiple Uro in hand and like that's their only way to win now. And that'sĀ reallyĀ important because I have 10 minutes left on my clock, while they have less than three. I'm out of Apparations and Paths, so any threat they have will stick. I'll concede to a win condition, but not to nothing. I never get to stick another threat, but they never found a way to make the Uro's live, and they time out. So that's technically a win for me.

Match 2: Jeskai Control (2-1)

Game 1, W (Play, 6-7)

I lead with Vial. Things are looking bad for me when my opponent goes Steam Vents into Sacred Foundry to Bolt my Stoneforge Mystic and the Giver I Vialed in. Jeskai's wall of cheap removal is veryĀ hard for a deck like DnT to beat. However, I get lucky. Either my opponent doesn't know the matchup, has actual nothing, or is on autopilot, because they lose after going for Cleansing Wildfire on their Flagstones of Trokair, with mana for my Vialed in Arbiter. Sword of Fire and Ice cleans up afterwards.

Sideboarding:

-4 Skyclave Apparition
-3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
-1 Path to Exile

+4 Auriok Champion
+2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
+1 Aven Mindcensor
+1 Rest in Peace

I've learned over the years that most creatures are just going to die against Jeskai and Jund. Thus, it's best to bring in creatures that have protection from most of the removal. Thalia's tax isn't too effective, especially when Jeskai tends to board in Flame Slash. Apparition is actually a liability since Jeskai doesn't have many permanents I want to exile, those that do are big enough that the illusion will kill my creatures in combat, and Jeskai always seems to have the removal at the most devastating moment.

Game 2, L (Draw 7-7)

My opponent curves their removal perfectly, lands Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, and never looks back. I have a decent hand, but it lined up exactly perfectly for my opponent to one-for-one me to death.

Game 3, W (Play 7-7)

This time it's my turn to curve out with Vial into Arbiter with Giver followed by Vialed Stoneforge with Arbiter payment. My opponent goes tapped Hallowed Fountain into two fetchlands. Had I ever seen Ghost Quarter, I think that's game. As is, eventually another Fountain is found, letting my opponent Path both Giver and Arbiter to unlock their mana. However, it's too late, and Sword on a Champion runs away with the game. Gideon was hit the board too late to do anything.

Match 3: Scourge Shadow (2-1)

Game 1, L (Draw 7-5)

My blind keep has no Path. This proves fatal, since my opponent curves a perfect turn three kill with Scourge of the Skyclaves and Temur Battle Rage thanks to their opening hand being Monastery Swiftspear, Blood Crypt, and three Mishra's Bauble, with Bolt on the lethal turn. Them's just the breaks sometimes.

Sideboarding

-4 Thalia
-2 Flickerwisp

+4 Auriok Champion
+2 Winds of Abandon

I always reduce my vulnerability to Lava Dart in this matchup. Flickerwisp is has more utility than Thalia, so I keep some of them.

Game 2, W (Play 7-7)

I open with Vial. My opponent Thoughtseizes, taking Stoneforge. I draw and play Champion. My opponent Inquisitions twice, stripping the rest of my hand. I draw and play Sword of Fire and Ice. My opponent misses a land drop and plays two Swiftspears. I then equip the Champion and play another one and my opponent concedes. They must have had the Kozilek's Return in hand, but couldn't cast it.

Game 3, W (Draw 7-6)

My opponent leads with Swiftspear and Bauble. And then another Swiftspear, but no land drop. I get Stoneforge and then a turn 3 Batterskull plus Giver. My opponent finally gets their second land, an Agadeem, the Undercrypt, but it doesn't matter and 'Skull runs away with the game. I think my opponent had a lot of Scourge and Battle Rages based on their not casting anything.

Match 4: Mardu Shadow (0-2)

Game 1, L (Draw 7-7)

Once again, my opponent has the turn 3 Scourge kill, but with Mutagenic Growth for the Swiftspear instead of many Baubles. I didn't have a Path.

Sideboarding

-4 Thalia
-2 Flickerwisp

+4 Auriok Champion
+2 Winds of Abandon

Basically the same matchup demands basically the same sideboard. I know I'm against Mardu thanks to the lands that got played, which makes me wonder about Rest in Peace. However, I haven't seen decks that are as big on the graveyard synergy recently, so I decide against it.

Game 2, L (Play 7-7)

I have a turn 2 Champion. My opponent Thoughtseizes me, taking my only Path. Then I get double-Bolted turn 2. Turn 3 is for another Thoughtseize taking Winds and two Death's Shadows. On turn 4 my opponent plays Agadeem, and attacks with two 6/6 Shadows. I block with my two Champions. My opponent cycles two Street Wraith then double Battle Rages. Just nothing you can do, there.

Match 5: 4-Color Copycat(2-1)

Game 1, W (Play 6-6)

Over the course of this game, my opponent will resolve Oath of Nissa six times. They will hit lands three times, find the first Felidar Guardian, and whiff completely twice. Given the typical composition of that deck, such a result is statistically implausible. Everything just seems to be misfiring for my opponent and I win easily.

Sideboarding

-4 Thalia

+2 Winds of Abandon
+2 Phyrexian Revoker

Being on the draw in this matchup makes Thalia pretty weak thanks to Wrenn and Six. It's also a lot more likely that they'll get Omnath out, so I need the extra removal. Revoker is a necessity in a planeswalker- heavy matchup.

I've thought a lot about bringing in Champion to negate the combo. It has never worked out for me because of T3feri bouncing Champion and Uro value. There's definitely an argument to go for it anyway, but I didn't here.

Game 2, L (Draw 7-6)

My opponent curves out, I assume, ideally: Oath, Wrenn, Uro, Omnath with fetchland into Felidar Guardian flickering Oath and finding Saheeli Rai. I fight back with Vial, Arbiter and Giver, then Path the Guardian when they go to combo and follow up with Apparation on Omnath. The game goes very long as I gain life with Batterskull while my opponent gets every fetchable land from their deck, most of them with a follow-up Omnath out. I have my opponent down to 6 life with lethal several ways next turn thanks to Sword when my opponent draws their last Saheeli Rai to combo for the win.

Sideboarding

-2 Winds

+2 Thalia

I'm on the play, so Thalia can keep Wrenn off the board for a turn. I'm also the aggressor so less sorcery speed removal is better.

Game 3, W (Play 7-6)

For the first time this League, I lock out my opponent. I have Vial turn one, Thalia turn two, and two Arbiters plus Ghost Quarter on a Raugrin Triome to lock my opponent's mana. They die with four fetchlands and a Breeding Pool in play, showing me a hand of Paths and Fiery Justice.

Overall Impressions

If my first match is any indication, there is aĀ perceptionĀ that Uro piles are dominating the online metagame. However, my experience and the data alike don't back up that conclusion. Players are clearly playing a very wide array of decks and are still brewing around, looking for edges and better options. The format feels very dynamic, which is a good thing.

As for Death and Taxes, the margins have gotten a little smaller over the past month as more players have grown accustomed to the deck. Apparition has also lost some potency as playstyles, though not deck composition, changes. DnT should maintain a place and presence in the metagame, but it will be reduced. And you'll really need to put in the time and effort to make it work. You really can't skimp on practice with a deck that requires extensive format knowledge to play correctly.

The Impact of New Cards on the Old & Obscure

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During my daily MTG Stocks Interests page browsing, I noticed a few obscure cards have recently popped. These are cards that I’m fairly confident the majority of the player base hadn’t heard of before. These cards include Last Chance and Psychic Vortex.

As it turns out, these two cards are not merely obscure and in short supply (the former has only been printed in Portal and Starter 1999, the latter is a Reserved List rare from Weatherlight). They also perform arguably powerful (and breakable) effects. They were just waiting for the right new card to come along to exploit their power.

Then came along Commander Legends.

An Equation for Buyouts

I’ve got a simple equation that describes what happened once Obeka, Brute Chronologist was spoiled:

(Obscure Card + Reserved List Card) x Powerful Effect x New Synergistic Card = Buyout

Let’s use Psychic Vortex as an example.

This is a Reserved List card that has only been printed in a single set: Weatherlight. Thus, the number of copies circulating on the market is going to be significantly lower than most any other cards that came later in Magic’s history (Weatherlight was released in June 1997). So already, this card was worth keeping an eye on. In fact, a couple months ago I grabbed a cheap copy for play in my non-competitive Commander deck simply because I thought the effect was weird.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Psychic Vortex

Not only is Psychic Vortex’s ability weird, it’s also potentially extremely powerful. Normally, cumulative upkeep on a card indicates a drastic drawback. The only other cumulative upkeep cards I’ve seen make waves are Braid of Fire, a $12 rare from Coldsnap, and Jƶtun Grunt, which used to be played as a sideboard card against graveyard decks. Typically, other cumulating costs have been too steep.

Psychic Vortex was the opposite. Its cumulative upkeep cost was the card’s strength: drawing cards! It’s that second line of text—the one that makes you discard your hand at the end of each turn—that was problematic. Still, an enchantment that lets you draw one card on a turn, then two cards, then three, etc. is asking to be exploited.

Then came the ā€œnew synergistic cardā€ā€”a legendary creature in Grixis colors with the simple text, ā€œThe player whose turn it is may end the turn.ā€

This effect combines with Psychic Vortex in a very favorable way. Now you can draw a cumulative number of cards each turn and, before you have to discard your hand, you can activate Obeka. The end of turn effect never takes place, and you get to keep your hand! The result: Psychic Vortex went from being a $1 bulk Reserved List rare to $8 and climbing.

Obeka also synergizes well with Final Fortune. The red sorcery lets you take an extra turn, but then at the end of that turn, you lose the game. Not if you have Obeka out! Now you can take a free turn and then simply activate Obeka to stop from losing.

Now Final Fortune hasn’t been printed in a minute—it appears only in Mirage, Sixth Edition, and Seventh Edition. It’s no wonder copies spiked from a couple bucks to over $10. But that jump is nothing compared to its functional reprint Last Chance.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Last Chance

Last Chance was printed in two sets: Portal (which no one wanted because it wasn’t tournament legal for years) and Starter 1999 (which I don’t ever recall seeing on store shelves). Two old, obscure sets with very limited supply. The result: this Final Fortune variant spiked from roughly $8 to $50ish in little time. That’s why the obscurity of the card is a multiplying factor (compounded with whether it's on the Reserved List or not)—the effect on price is enormous when the right synergistic card is printed.

Keep an Eye on…

Of course, hindsight is 20/20. It is easy to read Obeka and immediately piece together its impact on cards like Last Chance and Psychic Vortex. The real challenge is identifying other cards that are obscure, possibly reserved list, and have unique and powerful effects…effects that could yield powerful combinations should the right synergistic card be printed.

Now keep in mind, with these speculative pickups the time horizon is indefinite. These cards could be broken in the next set or in ten sets from now. The key is finding cards that won’t likely be reprinted and offer unique enough effects so that they maintain at least some modest price growth on their own. Let’s take a look at a couple possibilities.

Illusions of Grandeur is one that comes to mind, since this card once was a viable Extended strategy, a deck called Trix.

The Reserved List card from Ice Age is already worth nearly $10. But this card immediately gains you 20 life and has the possible effect of causing its controller (maybe you, maybe not) to lose 20 life. This is certainly a noteworthy ability! Perhaps the right synergistic card could be printed in a Commander set to bring Illusions of Grandeur back! And if not, I don’t see this card dropping in price any time soon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Illusions of Grandeur

Another card I like from Ice Age is Jester's Mask.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jester's Mask

This artifact lets you hand-craft a new hand of cards for your opponent! I don’t think there are many other cards in Magic’s history with such an effect. Really the biggest issue with this card is its steep casting cost of five mana and the fact it enters play tapped. But in Commander, the casting cost is hardly an issue. Perhaps the right commander—one that says cards that would enter played tapped enter untapped instead?—would make this artifact more playable.

Shifting focus to Alliances, Phyrexian Devourer catches my eye.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Devourer

This card has also been a speculative target in the past. It has a powerful ability in being able to remove every card in your library from the game at instant speed. Once the creature hits the battlefield, it’s virtually impossible to stop from removing your entire library from the game given that its activated ability is zero mana and doesn’t require tapping. Why would you want to remove your entire library from the game? There are many cards that say you win the game if you have no cards left in your deck!

Perhaps the right version of such a card hasn’t been printed yet. But if this becomes a more popular strategy in Commander, perhaps due to a future synergistic card, Phyrexian Devourer could once again spike. As a side note, Thought Lash is a blue enchantment from Alliances that has the same powerful, potentially exploitable effect.

The last card I’ll mention (there are plenty more I’m sure) is Frenetic Efreet. Why is a three-mana, 2/1 flyer so special? Its rules text is written in such a way that it allows you to do something that not many other cards do: flip as many coins as you’d like!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Frenetic Efreet

Frenetic Sliver explicitly states the coin flip only takes place if the creature is in play. But with the Efreet, you can put 10,000,000 coin flips on the stack and all of them will resolve even though the Efreet will be long gone after the first flip. Why would you want to flip a coin so many times? Chance Encounter comes to mind, but Wizards is always printing new coin-flip cards (most recently, Krark, the Thumbless and one of them could bring interest back to Frenetic Efreet. The efreet is already worth a few bucks and is on the Reserved List, so again your downside is minimal here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chance Encounter

Wrapping It Up

Magic has been around for 27 years now. The history of the game is so immense that it’s inevitable that a newly printed card will eventually synergize well with something from the past 27 years. That happened recently when Obeka, Brute Chronologist was spoiled, causing cards like Last Chance and Psychic Vortex to spike. Suddenly, these obscure cards that most players likely never heard of are making waves on MTG Stocks and spiking on buylists.

This will happen again and again, and it’ll follow a general formula. The more obscure the card (even better if it's on the Reserved List), multiplied by its power level, multiplied by a synergistic reprint will equal a spike in price.

Browsing the Reserved List, I found a few cards from Ice Age, Alliances, and Mirage with abilities that could be breakable with a future card. I’m sure there are other possibilities in Weatherlight, Visions, etc. as well.

My watch list included cards that allow you to exile your entire library at instant speed and flip an infinite number of coins—normally such effects are undesirable or harmless, but they can be extremely powerful in the right context. These are the kinds of obscure cards with powerful effects that I have my eye on.

They may not spike tomorrow. They may not spike five years from now. But they have the potential to do so, and in the meantime, they’re above-bulk cards with potential, gradual upside regardless. That’s often the kind of investment I like to make. Low risk with the potential for high upside!

Outside the Box With Scourge of the Skyclaves

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Shortly after the card became legal, I ran a piece on Scourge of the Skyclaves that illustrated the many homes it was sure to find (and had already tried out) in Modern. Of those, Rakdos Prowess has risen head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition, that build now rebranded as Scourge Shadow. Still, as a staunch believer in brewing that which the heart desires, I was left wondering what a Scourge deck might look like that was maybe worse, but certainly more in line with my preferences than the all-out assault of the top performer. Today, I'll unveil what I managed to come up with.

Picking Colors

My first order of business was to decide which colors I wanted to be in, as the best cards in each are fairly obvious; then, it's a matter of picking spells in those colors that plug whichever holes are left in the strategy.

Back in Black

It made sense to start by looking at what was already in-color, and black certainly offers some exciting options to the Scourge shell.

Inquisition of Kozilek/Thoughtseize: Clearing the way for a fatty with one of these spells is Modern at its most classic. That line of play shoves us towards midrange on the archetype spectrum, but when the spells are this versatile, who cares? Thoughtseize does deal us damage for Scourge, but to be fair, it's die-more considering we'll always be fetching. Still, that damage becomse relevant when we look at another possibility....

Death's Shadow: By now, Shadow and Scourge have proven to be the best of buds. After all, they're both undercosted beaters that benefit from similar gamestates, not to mention come with similar strings attached. I wasn't sure I wanted Shadow, because of the kind of playstyle it can force pilots into, but I did want a certain amount of threats.

Cling to Dust: Modern's latest superb cantrip, Cling offers a late-game grinding engine, incidental lifegain, and incidental graveyard hate in Game 1, all on a one-mana draw spell that triggers prowess and fills the graveyard. Talk about versatile.

Fatal Push: Great removal. What's not to like!

Looking over my options, I figured pushing deeper into black than just a splash for Scourge meant adopting a slower, grindier gameplan.

Red the Runes

The next color I looked at was red. Level 0 reasoning when reading Scourge of the Skyclaves says that the card's better when opponents are getting domed, and nothing domes like a burn spell.

Lightning Bolt: Magic's premier burn spell was all but guaranteed inclusion if I opted to dip into this color, but I didn't think it was reason enough to commit on its own. Modern decks these days are well-oiled machines built from synergistic components, and Bolt is... well, just a great card. Splashing the instant was once more commonplace, although often decks that couldn't play it were simply outclassed, but that was before Fatal Push, Aether Gust, and other such compact answers were printed in other colors.

Monastery Swiftspear: Now we're baking! If I do indeed know my way around a Swiftspear, there's no way I'd miss its delicious synergy with Scourge. Since the newcomer relies as much on an opposing life total as on one's own, Swiftspear essentially clears the way for Scourge to come down, no-questions-asked: because of haste, opponents don't even get a chance to draw their first card of the game, play their first land of the game, and kill the Human before they're in range of Scourge being live. Swift also provides bursts of damage down the road, which grows Scourge in the medium-term. For that reason, opponents should kill it right away if they can. The thing is, their doing that means one less removal spell pointed at Scourge, or a Push wasted.

Swiftspear's one-mana-haste-beater-with-upside-later blueprint is so good with Scourge that we've seen Bomat Courier creep into Rakdos Prowess decks this month as four additional copies. Bomat Courier! Remember that guy?

Temur Battle Rage: One of the most alluring aspects of Scourge of the Skyclaves is its combo potential with Temur Battle Rage, which in case you've been quarantining under a rock lets the creature kill from 10 life with opponents at 15. Fitting a couple of these into the shell for a Splinter Twin effect of sorts would increase our aggressiveness quotient, perhaps improving reversibility if the build was trending a little too reactive.

Crash Through: Far from the most exciting card in a deck all but sure to eschew Soul-Scar Mage, Crash is nonetheless a cantrip that does things, and one that plays great with Scourge and other fatties like Tarmogoyf. Its effect proves a tad redundant with Rage, often a better spell for that purpose, but I like that it filters into a new card.

U Blues, U Lose

Or do ya? I was determined to find out!

Stormwing Entity: I've had good fun with this creature since its printing, and wanted to try it alongside Scourge in a 12-Goyf type of shell. Try it I did, and because of Entity's strict conditions—mostly, running a bunch of Manamorphose—I remained unconvinced. I soon came around on Manamorphose the card, but requiring the instant to be around just to slam the bird made the bird far from worth it. The point of Scourge is we don't have to step so far out of the way to run a ganga great two-drops.

Stubborn Denial: Rather, the most obvious candidate in blue was Denial—after all, blue cantrips ain't what they used to be, and permission interacts with certain spells a lot better than targeted discard does, yielding tempo as well as disruption. Alas, without Entity, I just didn't have enough Ferocious enablers to want to dip into the spell, which made blue mostly unappealing.

Aether Gust: One last-ditch note in blue's favor was Aether Gust, a card that's been showing up in sideboard and even mainboards galore. Not only is super-bouncing a Swiftspear or other prowess creature great in the combat step, fading damage while often costing opponents a card or two in the process, Gust is great at dealing with lots of Modern's premier threats at the moment: Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, Primeval Titan, and Omnath, Locus of Creation among them. Naturally, though, it wasn't a reason on its own to splash a color.

Mean 'n' Green

Well, we all knew it would come to this...

Tarmogoyf: Ah yes, the reason not just to splash green, but to play Modern, nay, Magic at all. As soon as I saw Scourge, I thought Goyf; here was a creature that similarly rewards pilots for just playing the game, capable of growing freakishly huge very quickly even without much support. And as a longtime champion of Temur decks, I'm also a longtime clamorer for "more Goyfs" to throw into my decks, so naturally I was excited by the prospect of slinging these coupla two-drops together.

By "more Goyfs," I mean strategic redundancy; with eight of the things, it's simpler to build a whole deck that assumes it can drop such a beast on turn two in most games, rather than having to flip a coin between two patently different creatures (as Jund did forever with Dark Confidant). As such, the deck should run smoother. But it's also curious that Goyf and Scourge don't utilize the same resource. While Goyf can be blanked by Rest in Peace, and Scourge dismantled by... uh... random lifegain cards, dealing with a creature suite that employs both of them strains opponents for hate, multiplying the pressure both threats already put on the life total. In other words, they seemed like a match made in heaven, so long as I could figure out what else green had to offer.

Veil of Summer: 2020 was truly a year of superb cantrips, though not all of them remain in the format. Veil of Summer is one that has managed to evade Modern's banhammer, if it wasn't so lucky elsewhere. The hate card Goyf and Scourge both crumble before is Fatal Push, one of Veil's favorite meals. And stopping permission, discard, and other random removal never hurts, either. Sold!

Traverse the Ulvenwald: A Traverse package could be splashed, and I messed around with one a bit. But to what end? If we already have our great threats, I don't think additional graveyard reliance and mana taxing is what our deck wants.

Don't White a Check...

...that your ass can't cash! We've got the honorable Fred Durst to thank for that one. But seriously, that check would bounce. With pretty much just Path to show for itself, white is freaking bad.

Building the Deck

Green was a lock. (Who are we kidding?) And so was red; my tries without it proved too anemic. White was out for sure. I messed around with some four-color variants before realizing blue wasn't adding much and cut it, which gave us Jund.

Here's where I ended up:

Jund Scourge, Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Scouge of the Skyclaves

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Cling to Dust
4 Manamorphose
3 Temur Battle Rage

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Crash Through

Lands

2 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Swamp
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
1 Klothys, God of Destiny
3 Veil of Summer
1 Ancient Grudge
3 Fatal Push
2 Searing Blood
3 Collective Brutality
1 Unearth

A few general thoughts:

I ended up going with Shadow to add some bulk to the threat suite, which was missing once I gave up on Stormwing Entity (the other option was trying for a Traverse package, which struck me as kind of frail). We do deal ourselves plenty of damage between the fetchlands and Thoughtseize anyway, and Shadow is something of a trump in the many aggro mirrors. With Shadow in the picture as well as Scourge, I felt comfortable moving to 3 Temur Battle Rage.

Manamorphose stacks with Bauble to give the deck plenty of 0-mana velocity, which is great for Goyf, Swiftspear, and Cling alike. I think it's worthwhile even without Entity, though I could see trimming its numbers a bit if we needed to include something else, such as mainboard Fatal Push (perhaps alluring with Scourge Shadow so high in the Tier rankings).

It still offers an aggressive dimension, but Swiftspear is not a standalone threat in this build: it's more an enabler Ć  la Noble Hierarch, almost hoping to lock in a point of damage and then eat a kill spell right away to clear the way for a superior threat. Of course, if opponents choose to ignore it without developing their own battlefield, Swiftspear will end up piling on a good 3-6 damage in the first few turns, which is fine for the mana investment, but far from the havoc we know it's capable of.

Feeling Nostalgic?

Because of Swift's borderline enabler status here, this deck feels familiar to me, playing somewhat like the Six Shadow deck I trotted out only for Arcum's Astrolabe and Oko, Thief of Crowns to be banned. And building it reminded me of Counter-Cat, a deck whose founding principle is "splash the cards you want." Something of a jog down memory lane, and good lockdown fun, although natch, I couldn't sleeve it up for Friday!

All that to say that maybe our world is deeply altered, but Modern is still Modern—sure, Blood Moons and Swiftspears and Omnaths and Scourges lurk around many corners, but if you find something that takes your breath away, by golly, play it. Life is too short. Until next time, may you swing 15!

Commander Legends: Spoilers and More!

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Commander LegendsĀ is the first Commander set that has ever been designed to be drafted and will be released on November 20, 2020. Featuring 71 new legends, in-demand reprints, and new mechanics, this is sure to be an exciting new set for Commander players. The set contains 361 regular cards (165 of which are brand new) and includes randomly inserted premium versions of all of the cards. The prerelease promo is a sweet alternate art Sengir, the Dark Baron with art by Pete Venters, and the Buy-a-Box foil is an alternate art Mana Confluence. Players will be able to purchase Draft Booster Boxes, Collector Booster Boxes, and two new reconstructed Commander Decks featuring cards from the new set.

Spoilers are slated to start Monday, October 26th, and are slated to followĀ this schedule. Check back with us frequently for the latest spoilers and our MTG Finance flavored commentary! We'll be covering our favorite highlights from spoiler season - if you want to see the entirety of everything that has been spoiled you can check out Wizards' updated card gallery here.

November 5th

All right friends, here we are - the final day of previews! The whole set has been revealed, and you can see everything over on Wizards' site here. What are you most excited for from this set? What cards did I miss talking about that you think will be super relevant? Let us know in the comments, or feel free to reach out in the QS Discord. I'll cover a few of the new things we saw today below.

Kwain, Itinerant Meddler might be my favorite card from this whole set, based purely on the art. This seems like a decent, fun card, and will fit in well in any deck that really enjoys playing the political side of Commander.

I'm a little underwhelmed by our last white mythic of the set, Triumphant Reckoning. Nine mana is a big investment even if being able to return all of your artifacts, enchantments, and planeswalker cards from the graveyard to the battlefield could be a huge game-changer. Would have including creatures made the card way too insane? This is a fine card if you're going to be playing at a table with no graveyard hate though, I guess.

November 4th

We're getting close to the end of this spoiler season, but there's still plenty of cool cards to be had!

Akroma is in the house! Akroma, Vision of Ixidor is a super cool iteration of a fan-favorite angel. Lore-wise, Akroma is a sentient illusion created by Ixidor, which is where I imagine this card gets its name. There is a lot of text here, but it's a powerful card in a much-collected tribe that also has partner, so I imagine plenty of people will be wanting to pick up copies of this Akroma. Akroma's Will fits with Akroma nicely flavor-wise, and does pretty typical things for white.

What's more classic than angels and dragons? Along with Akroma, we got a cool dragon spoiled today in Hellkite Courser. This seems like a pretty powerful card in red, allowing you to gain access to your commander for a turn without paying their mana cost. This will be extra good later in the game if you've already cast one of your commanders several times in a game. Court of Ire is a fun monarch card that I can see getting in a ton of damage over a game if you manage to keep your title. Not the most competitive card at first glance, but it should fit in well in more casual commander games and be a pretty decent blow out in draft!

Bell Borca, Spectral Sergeant is a really interesting design and has the potential to be pretty powerful in an aggressive Boros deck. I'm not a fan of exiling cards that I might not be able to cast, but Bell Borca makes good use of them and can potentially help you filter your deck too. Jared Carthalion, True Heir is a fun monarch card in Naya colors that has potential to be a powerful beater if you can manage to become the monarch again after gifting it to an opponent.

Dawnglade Regent has some of the craziest antlers I've ever seen on an Elk, but is a pretty cool addition to big green decks! I really like the ability to give all of your permanents hexproof if you manage to hold onto the title of monarch.

November 3rd

Today is a tense day for those of us in the US, with it being election day and all, but at least we have cool spoilers to distract us.

Speaking of cool spoilers, we're getting a Mana Drain reprint! I wasn't expecting to see such a hype reprint this late in the spoiler season, but it was a nice thing to wake up to. This was definitely a card that needed a reprint, and I imagine it's going to be one of the most chased mythics of the set. The last Mana Drain reprint we got in Iconic Masters didn't do much to bring the price down, but maybe this one will?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Drain

Hullbreacher is a fun merfolk that will slot nicely into pirate tribal decks that are running blue and will help you ramp against opponents who spend a lot of time drawing cards. This isn't going to blow up Legacy or anything, but it's a fun card! I think the art for Sakashima of a Thousand Faces is super cool, as is its ability to negate the "legend rule" for permanents you control. There's a lot of possibilities for this card, and it's one I'd recommend keeping an eye on.

Along with Sakashima comes a pair of related cards. Sakashima's Protege has Flash, Cascade, and a clone effect, which is pretty decent but not amazing at six mana. Sakashima's Will is really neat and I think will see a decent amount of play. The potential to steal a creature (even one your opponent picks) and potentially buff all of your other creatures is super powerful in blue. Pair it with Sakashima as one of your commanders and you could potentially have a whole board of a powerful legendary creature.

I love the pirate flavor of Coercive Recruiter and think it will be a fun addition to pirate tribal decks. This will be a pretty powerful pick in draft I think, and seems good enough to be a part of your 99 if you're in a dedicated casual pirates build.

November 2nd

Nightshade Harvester is a fun way to punish people getting too greedy with land ramp, which I love, plus it's another great addition to BG elf tribal. I like Necrotic Hex a lot. In some cases, it will be able to act as a board wipe that nets you some zombies which is neat, and even if it won't wipe the whole board it will be a good way to come back from an empty board for you.

I think Falthis, Shadowcat Familiar will be much more of a limited Commander card, but the art is adorable and I love it. Elvish Dreadlord seems a bit expensive mana-wise for what it does, but the encore ability might actually make this a decent addition to the GB elves archetype.

In my opinion, every set can be made better by including a cool unicorn to it, and Lathiel, the Bounteous Dawn looks to be this set's cool unicorn! Lathiel will make a good addition to many GW lifegain decks, and the art is super cool! More good news for our Vorthos friends, Nevinyrral finally gets his own card! Nevinyrral, Urborg Tyrant marks the first time we've seen the owner of fan-favorite [card]Nevinyrral's Disk[card] on an actual card, and this zombie wizard comes with a ton of text! I think this is a super fun design, and I'm sure people will be clamoring to get their hands on copies.

Commander's Plate is a fun piece of equipment that really rewards you for running a mono-colored commander, and Flamekin Herald is a fun piece of cascade tech!

I'm a huge fan of playing Abzan colors, so seeing Reyhan, Last of the Abzan spoiled was super exciting for me. I think it's weird that there's no white in Reyhan's casting cost, but that's likely what the partner is for. I think Reyhan is a great card and will work really well with +1/+1 counter strategies. Speaking of Nevinyrral's Disk, we're getting a cool reprint! I'm sure the extended border versions of this card will be in high demand.

November 1st

I can't believe it's November already! 2020 has been quite the year. Today was a lighter day spoiler-wise, full of mostly solid uncommon reprints.

Reshape the Earth is another big, crazy green card! It may cost nine mana, but the effect is incredibly powerful especially if you're pairing it with things like landfall or maybe Field of the Dead. Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty is a cool druid for your cascade deck, helping you get extra value from any of your spells that cost six or more mana. I think this will fit well in plenty of the cascade decks that run these colors.

Rakshasa Debaser is a super cool graveyard-based card that looks like a lot of fun to play with. I want to steal my opponents' creatures right out of their graveyards! Abomination of Llanowar's art is super cool and creepy, and I think the Golgari flavor here is on point. I think this will go great in any green and black elf tribal deck.

More Vorthos voices rang out in jubilation today - we finally get to see Tormod on a card! Tormod, the Desecrator is likely the Tormod referenced in Tormod's Crypt, and it's super cool that this zombie wizard is finally getting a card! This is a cool partner commander for all the zombie fans out there. We're getting a Victimize reprint as part of the many cool uncommon reprints for this set, and I'm excited to grab some of the extended border printings for my decks!

Speaking of cool reprints that I'm excited about being able to have "premium" versions of - check out the sweet Swiftfoot Boots and Thought Vessel extended borders we'll be able to get when this set drops!

October 31st

Happy Halloween everyone! Spoiler season continues, and we've been seeing a ton of fun cards being spoiled today!

Continuing the theme of delighting all of the Vorthos players out there, we were treated to the spoiler of Hans Eriksson today. Hans was first referenced in Lhurgoyf's flavor text, with his sister Saffi Eriksdotter warning him about the danger of the Lhurgoyf, and it's really neat to see a fan-favorite character finally get his own card! What are the chances we get to see Erik himself in a future set?

Obeka, Brute Chronologist really typifies what I love about casual Commander games - the politics with other players. When you tap Obeka, the player whose turn it is may end the turn - with an emphasis on may. This is a super neat ability, and I imagine it will lead to lots of hilarious situations at the table. Combine this with other Time Stop effects and you've got quite the deck. I wouldn't be surprised if the other cards like this that go well with Obeka start seeing more action soon. Ghen, Arcanum Weaver is a cool enchantment-based Mardu commander that allows you to sacrifice an enchantment to return target enchantment from your graveyard to the battlefield. I'm excited to see the enchantment lists that end up playing this wizard as their commander!

Apex Devastator is so hilarious I didn't believe it was real when it was first spoiled. Cascading four times with a ten cost, massive green creature is quite a powerful effect, and I guarantee there are going to be plenty of green mages out there wanting to run this hilarious hydra. Rootweaver Druid is an interesting take on mana ramp. I didn't initially see that it's a may ability, which will definitely make for some interesting situations at large Commander tables in the future.

We're getting a Ravos, Soultender reprint, which is good news for BW players looking to get him in the cool new etched foil printing. Plague Reaver looks like a ton of fun to play with, and I look forward to passing around this beast when we're allowed to play paper Magic safely in the states again.

October 30th

Honestly, I wasn't sure how excited about this set I was going to be. Commander isn't usually my go-to format, and I've been feeling a bit overloaded with all the new, cool products coming out for Magic, but holy cow this spoiler season has me incredibly hyped for the set! Anyone else getting tons of new ideas for Commander builds?

Woah, we're getting a Scroll Rack reprint, featuring a much brighter version of the original Tempest art!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scroll Rack

This will likely bring the price down a bit for the other printings of this card, and I imagine fans will appreciate them using the Tempest art again. I really like how it pops in the new frame! Plus, the extended art looks absolutely amazing in my opinion.

I love the art direction for Jeska, Thrice Reborn, and the card itself seems like it will be a lot of fun to play with! I could see Jeska being in pretty high demand, especially in more casual-focused Commander playgroups. Jeska's Will is a cool entry in the Will cycle we're seeing in these spoilers and has a neat, very red feeling set of choices.

We're also getting two reprints of popular artifacts Rings of Brighthearth and Staff of Domination. For both of these, only having their original printings plus a Masterpiece version was starting to make their prices climb, so these reprints will be nice for newer players who will want to pick them up at more affordable positions.

Archelos, Lagoon Mystic not only has super cool art, I think the abilities are super fun as well. I'm sure there is a lot of fun shenanigans players can get up to as far as trying to keep it tapped down during opponents' turns, and this could make for some interesting politics games around the table! We're also getting a Command Beacon reprint, which is sure to please many Commander players.

October 29th

Well, Twitter is losing its collective mind again. Check this card out:

Yeah, Jeweled Lotus is a Black Lotus just for your commander. This one is causing a lot of commotion on the internet and is already pre-ordering for hundreds of dollars in many of the major online retailers. I really don't think it will hold that kind of price. Sure, it's pretty good, but only being able to cast your commander is a pretty big drawback compared to the glory that is its predecessor Black Lotus. I see this settling down between thirty and fifty dollars when all is said and done and plenty of these packs have been opened, but I've been wrong before.

Look, I love Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh SO much. It's a legendary Kobold! That costs zero mana! I think this is a super interesting Partner commander, and obviously, as a 0/1 Rograkh won't be doing much damage on its own, but with first strike, menace, and trample if you pair it with things that buff our brave little warrior I think there's potential for some powerful, fun plays. We also got a Treefolk today! Colfenor, the Last Yew has some excellent art and allows you to bring back creatures from your graveyard to replace creatures that are dying, which I think is very flavorful and cool.

Holy moly, Belbe is finally getting an actual card! Belbe, Corrupted Observer was a main character in the Nemesis novel and until now had not gotten a chance to have her own card. We've seen Belbe's Armor, Belbe's Percher, and Belbe's Portal, and she's been depicted in or referred to in a few cards, but Vorthoses can rejoice because now our favorite zombie elf can be our commander. We also got a chance to look at a cool green spider in Sweet-Gum Recluse that will work well in cascade-based creature decks!

We got some cool, classic-feeling blue cards today too! Laboratory Drudge is a zombie that allows for some fun graveyard shenanigans, and Eligeth, Crossroads Augur is a partner commander that lets you draw instead of scry, which feels very on-point for a cool, blue Sphinx.

Court of Ambition is another cool monarch card that can really put the pressure on your opponents and will fit in with a lot of fun black, discard-based decks. Slash the Ranks is an interesting take on a board-wipe, leaving only commanders behind. I'm not sure how competitive this is, but I'm sure it will find a slot in a lot of casual commander decks!

Woah, a mythic orc! I think orcs don't really get enough love in Magic lore, so it's cool to see Port Razer coming out in this set. It also has a really cool ability that allows for an additional combat phase, which I think will fit in a lot of pirate tribal decks. Archon of Coronation may cost six mana, but it has a powerful monarch related effect that I think could definitely swing some games, especially in limited.

Court of Grace is a really cool token producer made better by being the monarch, which I could see being pretty powerful in token-based decks. I really like Livio, Oathsworn Sentinel's abilities and would be really interested in seeing a list that takes advantage of them. Who would you pair Livio with if you were going to run it in a partner commander scenario?

October 28th

Day three is here, and wow this set is looking insane!

Mana burn and salamanders? What? These are probably the two cards I'm most excited about from today. Yurlok of Scorch Thrash has a mana burn effect! Back in the day, if you didn't spend the mana you used, you would have to take damage for it. That rule hasn't existed in a very long time, but they found a way to make it a card effect here, and I think it's super sweet! Plus, this angry Jund Viashino can make your opponents add mana that they might not be able to use, thus burning them. This is such a cool card and I'm going to try to find a way to play with it for sure!

Gor Muldrak, Amphinologist is bringing some big ol' salamanders to the table. This is a creature type we haven't seen in a long time. The only salamanders I was able to find are Flowstone Salamander, Pyric Salamander, and Scalding Salamander. This super rad Amphinologist gives you and permanents you control protection from Salamanders and at your end step gifts the player who controls the least amount of creatures a 4/3 blue Salamander Warrior creature token. This card is packed full of flavor, and one I know a lot of the Vorthoses on my Twitter feed are hyped about.

Look at how cute Kediss, Emberclaw Familiar is! This is a super fun uncommon Partner commander and I think it will be super good in draft. I think it could also work really well in more aggressive red-based Commander games if you Partner it with a commander that's good at pushing damage through. Zara, Renegade Recruiter is a super rad addition to the Pirate tribe, and I think her ability to temporarily steal other players' creatures right out of their hands is a ton of fun!

Amareth, the Lustrous is quite a lustrous dragon indeed, which has a cool ability that allows you to gain some shared permanent style card advantage! I know I said I couldn't find any other Salamanders except the three I mentioned earlier, but that was just because I hadn't looked through all the spoilers yet. Amphin Mutineer is both a Salamander and a Pirate! It allows you to exile a non-Salamander creature when it enters the battlefield and gives that creature's controller a 4/3 blue Salamander Warrior creature token. It also features the Encore ability!

Kamahl is in the house! Kamahl, Heart of Krosa is a rad commander for any green creature-based deck, giving creatures you control +3/+3 and Trample at the beginning of combat on your turn and also allowing you to turn your lands into 1/1 Elemental creatures with vigilance, indestructible, and haste which allows you to make use of the +3/+3 action even if all of your other creatures have been removed. Kamahl's Will is a super favorable instant that will fit right in a green creature-based deck with its namesake commander (or any other big green deck you might be running!)

Immaculate Magistrate is a super rad creature for anyone who likes Elf tribal and could provide a pretty powerful upgrade for one of your elves, and Horizon Stone lets you hold onto your mana in a fun, unique way.

Court of Cunning makes fun use of the monarch mechanic and mills your opponent! This looks like it would be a pain to play against at the table, and I love it and want to build a trolly mill Commander deck now...

October 27th

It's day two of official spoiler season and there are plenty more fun cards to see!

Here's the spoiler that's been blowing up my Twitter feed the most today. People are pretty split on Opposition Agent, some thinking that it looks like good fun, and others are proclaiming that this will ruin Legacy. Personally, I think this is a really interesting effect I'd like to test out, but I can for sure see why people are worried.

Profane Transfusion is a super sweet black, mythic sorcery. I love the idea of exchanging life totals like this, and the bonus of a Horror artifact token is very cool! This, like many of the cards from this set, is unlikely to see much, if any CEDH play, but it's got some seriously awesome casual appeal. Phyrexian Triniform is a cool example of the new Encore mechanic, where you can exile a card for the Encore cost and for each opponent, create a token copy that attacks that opponent this turn if able, and they gain haste. I'm not sure how much play this particular card will see, but it's definitely neat!

We also got some cool red rares spoiled today! Aurora Phoenix is a rad Cascade-based card that has Cascade but also comes back to your hand from your graveyard whenever you cast a spell with cascade. It has a large mana cost, but I think it will slot into a lot of fun cascade-heavy Commander decks. Emberwilde Captain is a very cool Monarch-based card, Monarch being a big returning mechanic from the set, that is looking to punish other players at the table who are holding a large hand of cards! Plus, it's a pirate, which is a tribe that is getting a lot of really cool support with this set.

I think Kodama of the East Tree is super neat! It's a Partner commander and lets you put a permanent of equal or lesser converted mana cost from your hand onto the battlefield. I don't have any fun green Commander decks put together right now, but this legendary spirit makes me want to put one together for webcam games with the crew. Magus of the Order might make it into that theoretical deck too because tutors are super useful. I'm not sure how great this particular Wizard will be in the long run, but I think the ability is super cool.

Averna, the Chaos Bloom has a super neat cascade-related ability that lets you ramp which is always useful in a game of Commander! I'm still not sure how I feel about Blim, Comedic Genius in a playability sense, but this imp is definitely a hilarious example of Rakdos awesomeness. I'm sure it'll lead to some hilarious gameplay though!

October 26th

It's the first day of official spoilers and holy cow is this set looking like a ton of fun already. This is definitely looking to be a set full of weird, fun cards that will be right at home in the Commander format.

One of the most hype spoilers we've seen today is Vampiric Tutor. Vampiric Tutor is one of the best, and most expensive price-wise, tutors available in the format. The mythic printing it received in Eternal Masters didn't do much to bring down its price point, with most printings of the card still hovering around the hundred dollar mark, but hopefully, this new printing of the card helps lower the price a bit so that more Commander players can slot it into their decks. If you have copies of the Visions printing or either of the judge promos I don't think there's any need to rush out and sell them because they're likely to hold onto their value. If you're in need of this tutor for your decks, this Commander Legends printing will be a great time to get into them!

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We were treated to a whole slew of fun looking mythics today! Sphinx of the Second Sun's ability seems like a ton of fun and will probably slot into all sorts of blue-based Commander decks on the more casual side of the format. Getting an extra beginning phase seems super sweet, allowing you to untap your creatures for blockers and also draw another card! Tevesh Szat, Doom of Fools is a planeswalker that can be your commander and also has the partner mechanic, which they are bringing back for this set. All three of his abilities seem super powerful and I'm sure this will be an in-demand planeswalker for many Commander players.

Mnemonic Deluge has quite an expensive casting cost but allows you to copy an instant or sorcery card from your graveyard three times without paying the mana cost! I could see this card seeing a lot of play in certain blue-based builds. Seraphic Greatsword is a neat equipment that will slot into many casual Angel tribal decks, especially if they skew towards an aggro build.

As a Goblin Fanatic, I about lost my mind when Krark, the Thumbless was spoiled. Krark's Thumb has always been a fan-favorite card since it's printing in Mirrodin, but this is the first time we get to really see the rest of Krark! Coin flipping mechanics have always been a silly staple at casual Commander tables and it looks like people have already started buying out copies of the thumb in anticipation of playing it alongside its owner. It's probably too late to snap up a copy if you didn't already have one, but I imagine once the hype dies down you'll be able to get affordable copies again.

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Szat's Will is a cool commander-matters instant with creepy art, and while it has kind of an expensive casting cost, the abilities are powerful and I imagine it will see plenty of play. I would love to open one of these in a draft!

Bladegriff Prototype is a super neat flyer that could really feed into the whole political side of Commander (which I enjoy very much). Allowing the player you attacked to pick another one of your opponent's nonland permanents to be destroyed sounds hilarious to me and I'm definitely going to want to pilot this against my friends in a casual game at some point. Liesa, Shroud of Dusk is super interesting as a commander because you have to pay two life instead of two extra mana for each previous time you've cast it from the command zone. I imagine you could brew a really cool list to take advantage of this and I'll for sure be keeping an eye on this card in the future.

Nymris, Oona's Trickster is chock full of faerie flavor and seems like a ton of fun to play. It rewards you for playing instants and allows you filter through your deck in an interesting way, and I'm sure there's plenty of mischievous faerie players out there already scheming away at how they'll be using this new legendary faerie knight.

 

Multicolor Monolith: October 2020 Metagame Update

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Happy Election Day, America! May your vote be counted and the voting process as stress-free as mine. Living in a state that's been all mail-in ballots for years has considerable advantages in a pandemic year. And if not, take heart. At minimum, you won't be bombarded by annoying, omnipresent, and pleading political advertising for at least another two years.

October's data came in like clockwork. Not only exactly on time, but also in predictable quantity. Every week there were exactly two Challenges and five Preliminaries. This appears to be the standard for Wizards and what I'll expect going forward. If there are additional premier events, that's just gravy. I've considered adding in non-Wizards MTGO events. MTGGoldfish and MTGTop8 often have other events from international groups and Hareruya, but there are problems. Primarily, I don't know the competitiveness of the events. For all I know, they could be small playgroups with really inbred metagames, not at all comparable to MTGO events. Also, a lot of them report weird quantities of decks, like Top 11's or Top 4's, or 27 total decks. I'm not sure what to do score-wise, so I'm not going to bother. Let's worry about that when paper starts again.

October Metagame

There were 585 total decks this month. Which is down a bit from September, but that's largely thanks to no Modern Championship events this month, meaning fewer Premier events to draw from. Preliminary attendance appeared to be up overall to compensate for the lower event total, and so the data is only down by 26 decks.

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should" produce on MTGO. To be a tiered deck requires being better than "good enough". For October, the average population was 8.47, meaning that a deck needed 9 results to beat the average and make Tier 3. Then, we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff to Tier 2. The STdev was 12.71, so that means add 13 results and Tier 2 starts with 22 results and runs to 34. Thus, to make Tier 1, 35 decks are required.

The Tier List

Deck diversity is down a bit this month, from 73 to 69, which is still a nice amount of variety. Of those, 21 cleared the threshold and made the tier list. The lower numbers are almost certainly a function of the smaller data set, which was caused by there being fewer premier events in October. However, population differences cannot explain how skewed the data is.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
4c Omnath6511.11
Scourge Shadow6210.60
Humans457.70
Death and Taxes355.98
Tier 2
Reclaimer Titan264.44
Tier 3
4c Copycat213.59
Izzet Prowess203.42
Heliod Company203.42
Amulet Titan193.25
Oops, All Spells183.08
Jund183.08
Burn142.39
Dredge132.22
Sultai Uro122.05
Mono-Red Prowess111.88
UW Control101.71
Eldrazi Tron101.71
Jeskai Control101.71
Ponza91.54
Niv 2 Light91.54
Mono-Green Tron91.54

4-Color Omnath piles and Scourge Shadow technically qualified for Tier 0 status (three STdev's above average) in October. That is an absurdly high population. Ponza was just under the cut last month. I'm not going to actually call either deck Tier 0, temptingly click-baity as it may be. Both decks lack the decisive bustedness of a Hogaak or Eye of Ugin Eldrazi, and it's also only the first month this has happened. This could easily be, and I suspect it actually is, a function of variance and popularity rather than a problem.

See, 4-Color Omanth covers aĀ huge variety of decks. Some are Bant Uro decks with a single Omnath, Locus of Creation thrown in. Many are completely retooled to be Omnath first, planeswalkers second, Uro third decks. And everything in between. If I wanted to, I could have broken Omnath into at least three decks. I'm not going to because I hate splitting hairs. But I could have, so don't freak out over the numbers. Meanwhile, Rakdos Prowess has been a popular deck every month so far, and its evolution Scourge Shadow got a lot of attention in October. That boosted its numbers a lot. As the rest of the data showed, this is nothing to worry about.

Where's Tier 2?

There's only one deck in Tier 2: Reclaimer Titan. That's just how the math worked out. For those that don't know, it's basically Amulet-less Titan using Elvish Reclaimer and Flagstones of Trokair for mana fixing, toolboxing, and value. It's the evolution of the toolbox Vial Titan decks that showed up in August, then disappeared. I've never played against them and so have no further commentary, but they did better than typical Amulet Titan, so there's that.

As for its loneliness, I think that's just a quirk. With so much population wrapped up in the top two decks, it's natural and expected that the rest of the standings would be a bit thin. Death and Taxes is literally just over the line for Tier 1, and a number of decks are just under getting out of Tier 3. I don't think there's anything to be worried about metagame-wise as a result.

It does bring up some methodology questions. In the old system, this would never have happened, thanks to the paper data outweighing the MTGO data coupled with the statistical "smoothing" of the weighting system. I strongly believe that 4-Color Copycat, Izzet Prowess, Heliod Company, and Amulet Titan are actually Tier 2 decks in October's metagame, but the high STdev kept them out. I'm not sure there's an acceptable solution to this, as without another data source to serve as a counterweight any smoothing I do would be illegitimate. Weird-looking Tiers may just be something to live with until paper resumes.

What Happened to Ponza?

Meanwhile, I don't think I've seen a crash quite like Ponza's. It went from the best-performing deck in Modern to just barely making Tier 3. Insert tasteless airline joke here. Honestly, I'm perplexed. The metagame overall doesn't look too different from what it was in previous months, and given Omnath's percentage, you'd think that a Blood Moon deck would be ready to pounce. Instead, the deck died. I understand that Ponza has a poor Scourge Shadow matchup, but is it so bad to completely eliminate the deck?

Tron also crashed, but that is far more understandable. Eldrazi Tron has always been a meta deck, specifically a Chalice of the Void meta deck. When Chalice loses power, like when prowess continues to decline (as happened in October) Eldrazi Tron dies off. Mono-Green Tron also collapsed, but this was foreseeable. Cleansing Wildfire is a tailor-made maindeckable anti-Tron card. Not that it's being maindecked asĀ an anti-Tron card, mind you. There are a lot of decks throwing Wildfire at Flagstones of Trokair to make their own, better version of Rampant Growth. They're just incidentally getting to use it for its intended purpose.

Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I've started using a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list.

A reminder of how it works: as I go through the Preliminary and Challenge results, I mark each deck's record or placement respectively. Points are then awarded based on those results. Preliminaries report results based on record, so that's how the points are distributed. 5-0 is three points, 4-1 is two, and 3-2 is one. Challenges are reported in terms of placing, so being Top 8 is worth three points, Top 16 is two, and being reported at all is one. The system is thus weighted to award more points to decks that perform well in Challenges rather than Preliminaries. The reason is simply that Challenges are larger and more competitive events, and the harder the field, the better a deck needs to be.

The Power Tier

The 585 decks earned a total of 918 points in September. Total decks were down, so it makes sense that points are also down. The average points were 13.30, so 14 points makes Tier 3. The STdev was 20.71, meaning Tier 2 began at 35 points and Tier 1 is for 56 points or more. There were 20 decks in the power tier, down Ponza from the population list. It was not only abandoned, it performed poorly.

Again, the data shows much higher variance than before. Given that the data is linked, it would be far weirder if that wasn't the case. Interestingly, the difference between the average and STdev for points has consistently been double that of the prevalence rankings. That the STdev would be higher makes sense, there's more variation options for ranking power than population. That the relationship has been so consistent is intriguing.

Deck NameTotal PointsTotal %
Tier 1
4c Omnath11612.64
Scourge Shadow899.69
Humans687.41
Death and Taxes566.10
Tier 2
Reclaimer Titan454.90
4c Copycat363.92
Jund363.92
Tier 3
Heliod Company333.59
Izzet Prowess303.27
Amulet Titan303.27
Oops, All Spells283.05
Sultai Uro232.51
Burn202.18
Dredge192.07
Mono-Red Prowess181.96
UW Control151.63
Niv 2 Light151.63
Jeskai Control151.63
Mono-Green Tron151.63
Eldrazi Tron141.53

The top performing decks earned an absurd amount of points this week. To be expected, perhaps, given the population data. However, the Omnath decks really took the cake. They won a lot of events, but that may not be cause for concern. Pilots matter, and if the best players all gravitate to the same deck it will always do better than anything else. I can't prove this is the cause, but it is a plausible explanation. Don't go losing your mind until more data comes in.

More Normal

The advantage of doing power rankings is that some of the population weirdness disappears on its own. Tier 2 has naturally expanded to three decks, though not the ones I expected. Jund shot up from Tier 3 while Heliod, Izzet, and Amulet languished. At very least, it confirms the relative power indicated by the population listings. As does Eldrazi Tron being the lowest scoring deck in the listings.

Average Power Ranking

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. Using the power rankings certainly helps, and serves to show how justified a deck's popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results.

The Real Story

I'm still searching for a more statistical way to quantify how "good" decks are. All the tools from sports statistics deal with individual players on a team, which might work for individual cards, but not deck-to-deck. If anyone has ideas, I'm open to suggestions. Until I find something better, the averaging system is still very instructive. The average average was 1.61 this month. Therefore, any deck that is above that baseline average overperformed while those under it underperformed. Interestingly, 1.6 with some change has been the baseline for every month I've done this so far. No idea what it means, but it is an interesting discovery.

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier Placement
Jund2.007
Sultai Uro1.9212
4c Omnath1.781
Reclaimer Titan1.735
4c Copycat1.716
Niv 2 Light1.6717
Mono-Green Tron1.6719
Heliod Company1.658
Mono-Red Prowess1.6415
Baseline1.61
Death and Taxes1.604
Amulet Titan1.5810
Oops, All Spells1.5611
Humans1.513
UW Control1.5016
Izzet Prowess1.509
Jeskai Control1.5018
Dredge1.4614
Scourge Shadow1.442
Burn1.4313
Eldrazi Tron1.4020

There really is no substitute for experience. Jund was the best-performing deck by a solid margin. Supposedly dead thanks to the Uro/Omnath decks, Jund players defied October's long odds to pull a solid 2.00 point average. Jund's gameplan is just too solid and adaptable to really keep down, and it will be interesting to see how November goes for the stalwart.

Developments to Watch

Uro decks account for 4/9 of the overperforming decks, and that's concerning. A popular deck being popular is one thing, but if it wins a disproportionate amount then we're getting into a ban watch. There's enough variation between individual decks that diversity isn't being affected, both between the decks and inside them. It's also weird that it's working so well, given my experience with these decks. It makes me wonder if there's an actual problem in the meta or there's groupthink and self-fulfilling prophecies going on.

Meanwhile, this month's runner up Scourge Shadow decidedly underperformed. The deck is solid, but it very clearly only made Tier 1 due to popularity. This indicates some combination of high variance, poor metagame positioning, and a flawed attack plan. Changes need to be made. Finally, and mostly because I like crowing when a deck I think is bad does poorly, not only was Eldrazi Tron on the bottom of the power rankings, it had the worst average. The deck is badly positioned and clunky now that prowess has fallen off and Chalice of the Void's poorly positioned. Time to put the spaghetti monsters down.

Keep on Keeping on

The metagame has begun stabilizing, which is appropriate as we move into the period that is traditionally the least dynamic forĀ Magic. Competitive play has always wound down November to January in the past. This time will be a bit different I suspect, as the draw-down was for paper, not MTGO. I expect the metagame to just keep plugging along in November, but we'll see what happens.

Insider: My Take on Commander Legends

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I'll be upfront and honest, I haven’t cracked an actual pack of Magic cards since I got my Ravnica Allegiance: Mythic Edition in the mail. I’ve seen too many times how opening packs is bad ROI; I’ve been getting my fix by cracking virtual packs on Arena, that I didn’t have to pay actual dollars for. I only mention all of this because I’ve been more bearish than most on a lot of the paper Magic products Wizards of the Coast has released recently. So many reprints and a glut of products have me questioning if anything outside of the Reserved List can ever really retain any value over the long term.

Why bring that up? Well, after all of these incredible Commander Legends spoilers, my faith has been semi-restored. It looks like WotC dug deep for this set and there is just a lot to be excited about, regardless of whether you’re a cutthroat cEDH player or a casual kitchen table player. While I accept that WotC can reprint any card in this set at pretty much anytime, I’m looking at it not from a longer-term speculator viewpoint but for short term opportunities. We seem to have another perfect storm brewing for Commander Legends.

Eligeth, Crossroads Augur

This is actually the card I am most excited about from the entire set. Sure, we have some larger splashy spells and a pseudo Black Lotus in Jeweled Lotus, but we have had the scry mechanic for a long time. It’s become evergreen, which means we’re likely to see lots of cards featuring it in the future. Some of the obvious big winners are:

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Being able to buyback Ancestral Recall seems pretty ridiculous.

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4 mana for a 1/4 that draws 6 cards also seems insane.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prognostic Sphinx
There was an error retrieving a chart for Preordain

These cards all become absurdly powerful with Eligeth in play. Eligeth is a "build around me" commander rather than just an absurdly powerful one, which are the commanders I personally enjoy the most, and are also the type that cause a lot of cards to jump in value. We have already seen the foil versions of the first two spike. Given that they were Future Sight uncommons, a set from 2007, it isn't that surprising. Preordain is in Commander Legends itself and at common, I don't expect that we'll see any significant gains on other versions, outside of potentially the M11 foil version.

Prognostic Sphinx is the spec I'm most on the fence about; it's incredibly powerful in a deck built around Eligeth and its mana-free, repeatable scry. The biggest problem with Prognostic Sphinx is itsĀ TherosĀ foil promo printing, meaning the price ceiling on this card is very low. It may be an auto-include in the Eligeth deck, but you likely won't make much money buying a stack of these.

While my main focus has been on Eligeth's main ability, the fact that they also have partner is actually pretty important. Many of the other powerful multicolored legends spoiled thus far have not had partner. It seems WotC may have learned their lesson from the first partner go-around, as recent spoilers indicate a focus on mono-colored legendaries. I think the obvious partner for Eligeth decks is Kydele, Chosen of Kruphix, so for other speculation targets I'd focus on the Simic color pairing.

Archelos, Lagoon Mystic

The Sultai color combination is arguably one of the most powerful ones for commander. What's especially interesting about Archelos, Lagoon Mystic is that it acts as a Amulet of Vigor on steroids. Building a deck around Archelos, you'll always want to remember to cast your spells before finding a way to tap Archelos, but the ability turns cards like Boundless Realms into insanely powerful spells.

What I love most about Archelos is the first ability. Ideally, you'll find a way to punish all your opponents initially tapped permanents. Given all the crazy, spammable, green land search spells available in EDH, I think the bigger focus of these builds will be finding the best ways to tap Archelos outside of combat, and preferably at instant speed.

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With only two printings, neither of which had a large supply compared to print runs these days, this uncommon could easily be a $10 card should Archelos become a popular commander. The only trick is that once you tap Archelos for mana using Paradise Mantle whatever you resolve afterwards will come into play tapped, so save it for your last spell or an instant or sorcery. Paradise Mantle did receive a small reprint in Modern Masters, but likely not enough to meet the possible demand I'm describing.

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The days of Springleaf Drum having a home in Modern Affinity builds have long since past, but it's still a great way generate mana while also tapping a creature. As well, you avoid having to worry about summoning sickness like you do with Paradise Mantle. Unfortuntely, a recent reprinting in Double Masters means that the price ceiling on this card is pretty limited, though it is interesting to note that the Double Masters versions go for about half of either the Lorwyn or Born of the Gods versions.

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This common already shot up thanks to Zaxara, the Exemplary, so you aren't likely to find them in bulk as often, but it's down about 33% from it's high so there is potential room to grow with its current price.

Wrapping Up

During this pandemic, we've seen that the printing companies WotC contracts have not been able to keep up with the demand for new products. Stores have been getting allocations reduced, shipments delayed, and demand for Commander cards has remained strong. Talking with my LGS owner the other day, he mentioned that when he was initially allowed to put in his allocation request, he requested the maximum amount he could only to be later informed the week of 10/31 that he would be receiving only half of his request.

That's money left on the table by WotC, which they wouldn’t do unless they have to ration the initial supply. This implies that similar to Jumpstart, any cards that have high demand will skyrocket in price. Thanks to the recent spoilers, expect quite a few cards to be on that list. Keep this in mind as we move closer to the release of Commander Legends.

Standard Commons and Uncommons Watch List

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Last week I wrote about how I leverage Magic to keep myself distracted during this pandemic. One of those suggestions involved organizing bulk and then sifting through commons and uncommons looking for nickels and dimes to ship to buylists. This remains one of my favorite time-killing activities.

Typically, this activity starts with a couple more meaningful cards that I intend to buylist. Recently I had a played Hellfire that I flipped to Card Kingdom while they were offering $105 on near mint copies ($73.50 for HP). After adding this card to my sell cart, I browse a few sets I have bulk from to see if I can ship anything additionally—I’m paying shipping already, so why not?

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In repeating this practice numerous times, I’ve noticed a trend. After Standard rotates and the metagame shifts, commons and uncommons that see a significant bump in play—especially those from the previous year—see a measurable jump in value.

This week I’ll share some of the most valuable and played commons/uncommons in Standard as a way to encourage folks to keep the new stuff organized and to watch the metagame for clues on what to pick out of bulk.

Throne of Eldraine

Throne of Eldraine has to be one of the most overpowered sets in recent history. When was the last time so many cards from a single set were banned in Standard? Mirrodin? Urza’s Saga? It’s incredible. So far we’ve seen Cauldron Familiar, Escape to the Wilds, Fires of Invention, Lucky Clover, Oko, Thief of Crowns, and Once Upon a Time all banned.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that some of the most valuable commons and uncommons in Standard come from Throne of Eldraine. And with the recent turnover in the metagame, some prices may be surprisingly high. Keep in mind, I’m not looking at the Brawl Deck cards; I’ll only be focusing on cards you can open from a typical booster pack.

The leader of this group by far is Drown in the Loch. Card Kingdom pays a whopping $1.80 for this uncommon. Though a little less dominant, this is the Fatal Push / Path to Exile of Standard right now. Being two colors limits the decks this card can go in, but it’s still a four-of in any list that involves the Rogues strategy. In Rogues, this is basically a split card that says ā€œdestroy target creatureā€ on one side and ā€œcounter target spellā€ on the other. For two mana!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drown in the Loch

Distantly behind Drown in the Loch are a few other popular Standard cards. This includes Mystical Dispute, All that Glitters, and Mystic Sanctuary, which buylist for $0.72, $0.36, and $0.24 respectively. Mystical Dispute is definitely going to remain relevant for the rest of its time in Standard. The other two are a little more meta-specific. Either way, these are definitely worth picking out of your bulk boxes and draft chafe to ship for a bump in your next buylist!

Theros Beyond Death

Theros Beyond Death wasn’t as powerful as Throne of Eldraine when it came to requiring Standard bans. Only Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath earned the boot from Standard from this set. But in my [now daily] Arena play, I come across a few commons and uncommons from the set that are worth picking.

Funny enough, a couple popular sideboard cards are some of the most valuable uncommons from Theros Beyond Death. Soul-Guide Lantern and Cling to Dust have both seen elevated play lately. They are effective at slowing the Rogues deck down while also disrupting your opponents’ plans with Escape cards. They also can disrupt a Call of the Death-Dweller type effect in a pinch. These two cards buylist for $0.60 and $0.25, respectively.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Guide Lantern

Other noteworthy uncommons from Theros Beyond Death include Hydra's Growth. Destiny Spinner, and perpetually-obnoxious enchantment The Birth of Meletis. These three cards can be shipped to a buylist for $0.52, $0.32, and $0.26 respectively, and should definitely be picked and shipped while you’re mailing in a buylist anyways.

Looking Ahead

I could repeat this exercise for newer sets. But the reality is, they’re still too fresh to merit really aggressive buylist pricing. I’ve been monitoring Ikoria commons and uncommons since the set’s release and there’s very little that can net you more than a quarter. Like a fine wine, these cards have to age a little bit before they are at their most valuable.

That said, I want to look at Ikoria, Magic 2021, and Zendikar Rising to identify which commons and uncommons are seeing the most Standard play. This will be a ā€œwatch listā€ of cards that are worth picking now in anticipation of a bump in value in a few months.

Topping the list is Heartless Act from Ikoria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heartless Act

This premier removal spell can already be buylisted for $0.65. But I think that number is likely to climb. Like Drown in the Loch, this will become a go-to removal spell for many decks during its time in Standard. Right now Drown in the Loch buylists for nearly triple Heartless Act—I suspect this gap will close in the coming months. Heartless Act may have some restrictions in its utility, but it only requires one color, which is a huge plus for the uncommon.

If UR spells rises in popularity in Standard, Sprite Dragon could see higher prices. Right now it can be buylisted for $0.50—I’m not confident in a climb from there but I’ll be watching the Standard metagame closely to find out. The same can be said for Ikoria’s Bastion of Remembrance, which is very metagame dependent. Lastly, Zenith Flare could see a significant bump if cycling finds a spot in the Standard metagame.

From Magic 2021 I have my eye on a couple key cards that see extensive play in Standard. Cultivate is a reprint, but hasn’t been in a Standard set since Core Set 2011. I don’t know how much its million printings in Commander sets will hamper its potential, though. I expect the card will remain relevant and will climb a little bit, but I’m a bigger fan of a different Magic 2021 uncommon: Eliminate. This is yet another popular removal spell in Standard (noticing a trend?).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eliminate

Lastly, again dependent on the metagame, Village Rites is likely worth picking and holding aside. The card only buylists for a measly $0.08 now, but this could get to a quarter if the metagame favors it during its lifetime in Standard.

Finally, there’s Zendikar Rising, Standard’s newest set. There are a couple cards I would definitely pick from bulk and set aside for a future buylist. Topping the list is…you guessed it, another removal spell! I would argue Bloodchief's Thirst is one of the best removal spells we’ve seen printed in quite some time. For one mana it can kill a pesky Scavenging Ooze or Edgewall Innkeeper. Or for the fully kicked four mana, this deals with nearly every threat in the game, including heavy hitters like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. This buylists for a quarter today, but I can see it selling for over a buck next summer.

Two other cards I’m keeping a close eye on from Zendikar Rising are Feed the Swarm and Ruin Crab. The former is yet another removal spell—it’s only a common, but it does something that black historically has struggled with: kills enchantments. Don’t forget Theros Beyond Death had a heavy enchantment theme. There are likely to be good targets for this sorcery-speed removal spell as long as Theros is Standard-legal.

As for Ruin Crab…well players love their milling strategies. This will always be popular in casual mill decks in any and all formats. Hedron Crab is worth $5. Think about that. Granted it was printed only in original Zendikar and the Mystery Booster set. Still, as long as it dodges reprint, Ruin Crab has got to be one of the safest penny stock plays. It should also get a boost from Standard play. I can see this uncommon buylisting for a buck or two this time next year.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hedron Crab

Wrapping It Up

With more time on my hands, I’m noticing a trend when picking my Standard set bulk. When Ikoria was initially released, I picked through my bulk for a Card Kingdom buylist and there were only a couple cards worth a nickel. As the set has aged, the most played commons and uncommons have steadily climbed in price. The same has happened with Theros Beyond Death and Throne of Eldraine.

This trend will surely continue, and the most popular commons and uncommons from Zendikar Rising, and Magic 2021. In anticipation of this trend, I’d spend the time required to sift through any bulk you may have from this set and put aside some key cards. Removal spells seem to be in high demand right now given Standard is filled with tier 1 decks that like to attack. But mill strategies are always casual favorites, so keep an eye on Ruin Crab as well.

With this strategy, you’ll never break the bank. It can be time-consuming as well. But if you’ve got some spare time on your hands and want to feel like you’re being productive (especially during a pandemic), organizing your Standard bulk and keeping aside key picks for a rainy-day buylist just may be what you need. It’s one of my favorite activities for calming my mind, and I hope to continue the practice as each new set comes out.

Shadow of Shadow: Examining Rakdos Prowess

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As October comes to a close, it's time for me to wrap up my look into the new decks from Zendikar Rising. Admittedly, it's mostly been a case of deck evolution rather than outright new decks. Even Belcher had a direct predecessor. And that's a good thing. Modern's been churning non-stop for over a year. It's nice to have time to refine and rebuild rather than adapt to entirely new metagames constantly. It would be even nicer if we had paperĀ Magic to provide some metagame stability and consistency. The online metagame moves incredibly quickly, and decks are emerging and declining with alarming speed. Today I'm looking at a great example.

The one arguably exception to my earlier statement is Oops, All Spells. Nothing like it has ever existed in Modern before, nor was it possible in any fashion (to my knowledge) before Rising. I'd argue back that first, it actually isn't new. Travis Woo tried to make it work in 2015. He didn't succeed, but that's beside the point. The newest version appeared after Belcher starting popping up, largely as a result of players trying to fix the problems Belcher had. Secondly, everything I previously said about Belcher applies to Oops. It's busted when everything comes together, but making that happen is prohibitive. And it's a lot more vulnerable to hate than Belcher is. There's just not enough to say about the deck for a whole article.

Prowess Ascendant

Not so for today's deck, which has already had several articles to its name. During the Rising preview season, I noted that Scourge of the Skyclaves had potential in Modern. The only question was how to lower the opponent's lifetotal fast enough to make Scourge worthwhile, but not so fast that it was easier to just kill the opponent without needing Scourge. I didn't have an answer at the time, and because Prowess was so dominant, I didn't think I'd get one anytime soon. Prowess was so explosive already; what exactly was gained by slowing down for Scourge?

However, as Jordan noted, while there were plenty of homes available for Scourge, Rakdos Prowess made the most sense. It was actually putting up results, had a pedigree, and the Prowess shell did the damage needed to turn on Scourge. More importantly, Scourge filled a hole in Prowess's attack. Jordan knows his way around a Swiftspear more than I do, and that relying on cheap prowess creatures is as much a weakness as a strength. The deck had been crying out for some beef for quite awhile, and Rising dropped the perfect addition. In fact, why stop there? Just go all in on the life-total dependent creatures and run Death's Shadow too. It was a new concept a the end of September, but was already putting up results. And the deck just looked brutal.

Shadow and Scourge

Apparently, the MTGO collective conscience agreed. If you search for Scourge in October, it's basically all Rakdos Shadow. And why not? The deck was surging at the end of September, and given how strong the basic Rakdos Prowess shell had proven, there was no stopping it in October.

Exactly what the deck looks like is a matter of taste. Some lists take an all-in approach, with Street Wraith, Crash Through, and extra Mutagenic Growths. Others plan for a grindier game with Bomat Courier and Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger. However, the most common configuration looks exactly like they just took out the non-one-drop creatures to make room for Scourge and Death's Shadow.

Rakdos Shadow, SKK (4-1 Modern Preliminary 10/21)

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Soul-Scar Mage
4 Death's Shadow
4 Scourge of the Skyclaves

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
1 Unearth
1 Agadeem's Awakening

Instants

4 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mutagenic Growth
2 Apostle's Blessing
3 Temur Battle Rage
2 Dismember

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Blood Crypt
3 Arid Mesa
3 Marsh Flats
1 Mountain
1 Sunbaked Canyon
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Fatal Push
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Cleansing Wildfire
2 Feed the Swarm
2 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger
1 Kolaghan's Command
2 Kozilek's Return

I'm only being slightly disingenuous. The spell loadout of this representative deck is nearly identical to the most common Rakdos Prowess decks pre-Zendikar Rising. The main change has been to remove the prowess-critical Manamorphose to fit in Temur Battle Rage and Agadeem's Awakening. The reason (as far as I can determine) is that despite still playing the two best prowess creatures (don't @ me, Sprite Dragon), Rakdos Shadow just doesn't have or want to have the critical mass of spells in a single turn necessary to blow the opponent out of the water. This makes Manamorphose unnecessary air. Instead, it needs to maximize its spells slots to drop both life totals as fast as possible. I'm just thankful there's nothing like Flame Rift in Modern.

Variations on a Theme

In fact, it's worth noting that the combination of one-drop prowess creatures, Thoughtseize, and Lurrus of the Dream-Den (which is always a companion for Rakdos Shadow) has yielded one of, if not the, most successful decks this year. Pre-pandemic, various prowess shells were doing well. I thought the Rakdos version was better against the Primeval Titans running around, but Mono-Red was more common.

That all changed with the pre-errata companions. Whether as Rakdos Prowess, in Jund, or in Burn, Lurrus was the defining card of that era. And the vast majority of Lurrus decks were running Swiftspear and Thoughtseize. It makes perfect sense: Thoughtseize is the perfect disruption for this style of deck, Swiftspear benefits from the cheap spell, and Lurrus provides the card advantage to keep the gas pumping. Rakdos Prowess is just the latest beneficiary of this positive cycle.

A New Twist

The big change, and I suspect the reason for Rakdos Shadow overtaking all other options, is Scourge's combo with Temur Battle Rage. In case you don't know, if the opponent is at 15 life and Scourge's controller is at 10, then Battle Rage on Scourge is lethal: the first hit deals five, and the second deals 10. This is a much easier and lower-work kill than previous Battle Rage decks laid claim to. As Grixis Death's Shadow taught us well in 2017, it is very easy to get one's own life very low very quickly. Getting the opponent low enough only requires one Bolt hit and a Swiftspear. Two-card combos are powerful, and it has proven itself to the satisfaction of many pilots.

An Ugly Reality

The catch is that it doesn't appear to have stuck. The October data is nearly finished, and I can tell you that Rakdos Shadow will be Tier 1, probably at the top of the standings. However, I'm not sure it reallyĀ deserves that position. Without the last week of data tabulated, I can't be overly definitive. That said, Rakdos Shadow is only pulling 1.44 points per result, and that number has been falling steadily since early October. The usual average of the averages being 1.6, Shadow is definitely performing below average. Additionally, at least half of its results came in the first ten days of October. The rest of the month has been a struggle for Rakdos Prowess, and I'm inclined to think that it's actually worse today that it was in September.

Inherited Flaws

One can always blame these kinds of collapses on changing metagames, adaptation, or popularity shifts, and sometimes it's right to do so. MTGO has long had a reputation for being far more volatile than paper for a reason. However, I think that explanation is inappropriate this time. The lifegain out of the Uro piles is certainly devastating against Rakdos Shadow, but that was a problem it overcame before. If Shadow really was a top tier deck, it would do so again. Meanwhile, popularity swings affect every deck. If a deck is winning enough, it should hold players interest over time. If Shadow did suffer a popularity decline, it is a reflection of doing poorly in the meta rather than player whims.

I think the likely explanation for Shadow's October decline is that in exchange for a boost in explosiveness, it has inherited all the known weaknesses of its predecessor decks. And one unique problem. The primary problem is that, as I mentioned before, Rakdos Shadow is not really a new deck, just the natural heir to 2020's most popular card combination. Players were ready to fight this deck because they'd already had to fight Rakdos Prowess. Sweepers, creature removal, and lifegain are all as effective against both builds.

An offshoot of that is the Path to Exile problem. Between Lurrus, Unearth, and Agadeem's Awakening, Shadow is well set up to beat Fatal Push. None of those cards work against Path, which is the most played removal spell now thanks to Omnath piles and Death and Taxes. Giving up the haste threats and Bedlam Reveler for beef has left Shadow in a position to be run out of threats as they get exiled by Path and Celestial Purge.

A Huge Weakness

The unique problem is that Rakdos Shadow has one card that it is extremely weak to. There have been plenty of decks that lose to a particular type of card, chiefly graveyard hate, in Modern's history. However, I don't think that any deck has ever struggled against a single card the way that Shadow does against Auriok Champion. Protection from both the deck's colors is significant on its own as a brick wall. However, if that were enough, then Paladin en-Vec would see play. What matters is the lifegain. Champion triggers from both player's creatures, so trying to go around the Champion just plays into it. And that means that it becomes harder and harder to cast Scourge. When it does hit, Champion can potentially kill Scourge if there's a flurry of creatures afterward.

Shadow decks are, of course, aware of this weakness. Some run Bonecrusher Giant or Skullcrack and hope to bait a favorable block. Some splash white off Sunbaked Canyon to fit Path themselves. The most common solution is Kozilek's Return, which is arguably best, since a sweeper will also be good against the decks that would run Champion. But 2 damage isn't very effective against Humans, Giver of Runes protects against colorless, and both Humans and DnT run more Champions than Shadow runs Returns. The math decidedly favors Champion, and may explain a recent increase in Humans' numbers.

Compared to the Classic

A more general problem I have with Rakdos Shadow is how it compares to classic Grixis Death's Shadow. Classic GDS has lost a lot of its punch, but its success and longevity hold lessons for Scourge Shadow. GDS had a very similar gameplan of killing quickly with a huge creature being "cheated" out. It used similar tools of cantrips, creature removal, and discard.

However, GDS is more of a tempo or aggro-control deck, where Scourge Shadow is more or less straight aggro with some combo potential. GDS looked to rip-up the opponent's hand with lots of discard spells, play a threat, and then protect it with Stubborn Denial. This gave GDS incredible matchup flexibility and left it a commanding presence in Modern for many years.

Rakdos Shadow is far more linear. With less discard, it can't disrupt opponents as proactively. Its only way to save creatures is Apostle's Blessing, and not every version even plays that. Instead, the plan is to spread the board with cheap creatures and outrace the opponent. The most effective disruption is just winning the game, after all. Shadow is far more linear and single-minded as a result. This is a fine strategy, but it also makes it easier to answer and adapt to. And since Shadow decks at the end of October look so similar to those from September, while everything else has changed their sideboards, I think the Shadow decks may have fallen behind the curve.

For What It's Worth

I think that Rakdos Shadow is a fine deck and has a place in Modern. However, it needs to reevaluate itself and adapt to the changing meta. The holes and opportunities that it exploited early on have closed, and the meta is now prepared. The ball's in your court, Scourge Shadow. Time to make a play.

Staying Productive with Magic During this Pandemic

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If you live on planet Earth, you may find you have fewer viable activities to keep busy nowadays. COVID-19 has essentially brought the world to its knees, impacting sports, special events, work, gyms, conventions, and more. Of course, included in this list are all major in-person Magic tournaments.

Despite still [fortunately] working full time and having two children at home, I still find myself with a bit more free time than I previously had. This includes at least an hour and a half each day saved because I don’t have a commute—I’ve been working from home since March. Fewer activities both for myself and my kids mean more time for sitting around the house seeking out new forms of entertainment.

One of the effective fillers I’ve found for this downtime comes from Magic. I can’t play in person or attend a MagicFest to buy and sell cards, but I’ve found other ways to tap into this amazing hobby to spend my time and keep entertained.

This week I’m going to share three ways Magic has filled a void for me and kept me entertained (and arguably sane) during this pandemic.

Seeking Out Arbitrage

This can be a time-consuming approach to making Magic a little bit cheaper to play. You may even find some profitable opportunities. If you find you’ve got more time to kill during COVID-19, you could try this calming, productive practice. I’ve written about the store credit arbitrage practice time and again, but for new readers, I’ll provide a brief summary and then share recent examples.

The practice itself is simple but also time-consuming. You pull up two Magic websites—you can pick from eBay, TCGplayer, Star City Games, Card Kingdom, ABUGames, Cool Stuff Inc, Channel Fireball, etc., but one of the two sites must have a posted buylist that’s easy to browse. Then you examine the stock of one site and compare it against the buylist of the other site. If the math works out such that you can buy cards from site 1 and sell to site 2 for profit (usually requires accepting store credit), then add it to your cart. Do this enough to make an order worth the shipping, and pull the trigger.

I like this procedure even more when working with two major vendors with buylists, so that you can flip store credit back and forth rather than continually investing cash. But it may be that you have to start with cash before morphing to store credit. Don’t forget that if you’re using ABUGames, you’ll need to account for their inflated credit numbers—this makes it a bit more complex but also easier if you can find the right cards to flip.

I’ll share two recent examples.

First, I noticed a pricing discrepancy in International Edition cards between Star City Games and the rest of the market. It seems they still have lower prices on these cards, which have climbed in popularity and price recently. I brought up Star City’s International Edition stock and compared it alongside ABUGames’ buylist. Sure enough, I found opportunities to spend cash at Star City Games to obtain store credit at ABUGames at a rate of approximately 63%. That is, $100 in ABUGames store credit cost me about $63 in cash.

I put together a cart containing many random International Edition rares including Roc of Kher Ridges, Deathlace, Fastbond, Elvish Archers, and more. Over fifty cards in all were available to flip. In many cases, Star City’s ā€œPlayedā€ condition could still pass for near mint on ABUGames’ grading guide (though this is never a guarantee and should not be assumed). At the end of the day, I was able to assemble an order that cost just under $300 (including shipping) and would net me around $475 in store credit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Roc Of Kher Ridges

As of right now, ABUGames didn’t have a ton of compelling cards in stock so I had to get creative in order to avoid picking up severely overpriced cards. But a couple weeks ago, this wasn’t the case. As a second example, I obtained ABUGames store credit and used it to pick up a played Hellfire for $43.69. Card Kingdom has recently paid as much as $100 for near mint, or $70 for heavily played copies. This (and similar Legends cards) can be used to create credit arbitrage from ABUGames to Card Kingdom…if ABUGames ever restocks!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hellfire

Sorting and Picking Commons and Uncommons

Here’s a funny story to inspire readers. A few years ago, I decided to pick up a complete set of Homelands. I found a set on eBay for about $45, and it came to me with numerous duplicates of virtually every card. Clearly the seller didn’t value Homelands cards all that much (can you blame them?). I promptly buylisted the Reserved List cards and flagship uncommons (i.e. Merchant Scroll) but I was left with a ton of extra Homelands bulk.

What did I do with it all? I kept one copy of each Homelands card for myself, and put the rest into a box. Then, every time I shipped a buylist to ABUGames or Card Kingdom, I checked their buylist for Homelands cards. Any time they offered a few cents to a nickel on one of the cards in my extras box, I added it to the list.

A couple years later, and I’ve converted nearly every extra bulk Homelands card into a nickel—dozens if not 100-200 virtually worthless cards into store credit. Here’s all that is left:

 

Seven cards. Just seven unique cards remain from a box of 100’s of duplicate Homelands cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winter Sky

I tell this story to highlight a practice I pursue whenever I have spare time (which is more often nowadays). Since I’m shipping cards to buylists anyways, I like to browse my modestly sized collection for bulk commons, uncommons, lands, and tokens that I can ship for incremental store credit. The cost to ship one card to a buylist is the same as the cost to ship 40 cards because USPS charges the same for thick envelopes from one to four ounces. Why not fill up that space with some bulk?

If you’re thinking this is overwhelming and that your bulk collection is too large, then start small. If I don’t have hours to spend looking for nickels, I just look at a couple sets’ commons and uncommons for nickels and dimes. Then I rotate through the sets as I submit multiple buylists. By the time I finish the last set and go back to the beginning, the buylist changed and new cards are included.

Of course, this is easier if you have your cards sorted by set and color. This is another activity I’d highly recommend if you’re looking to kill time during this pandemic. The practice can be done with multi-tasking (doesn’t require your undivided attention) and can make picking for nickels and dimes much easier.

Magic Arena

Last but not least, one of the best things I’ve discovered during this pandemic is Magic Arena. While not a Magic finance strategy, it is a Magic activity that helps pass time and keeps me engaged.

That said, Magic Arena does hold a couple possible finance benefits. Most obviously, there are tournaments you could enter and win to make some money. I haven’t tried any yet and they’re probably more competitive than your weekly FNM, but they are still opportunities to make some money from Magic if you’re a good enough player and are missing in-person events.

But the other benefit to playing Magic Arena is my ability to keep up with the Standard metagame. I used to ignore new cards and Standard altogether, likely missing out on speculation opportunities. Now I’m fully versed in the metagame, bannings, and shifts in strategy that could lead to opportunities for speculation.

For example, I know that the recent bannings has led to the rise in decks that leverage Yorion, Sky Nomad. As Ikoria ages, Yorion could see a small price bump and could be worth picking up at just a buck each. Rogues are also all the rage right now, and Thieves' Guild Enforcer is a key card in all variants of the list. So I’m not ignorant of the fact that the card is suddenly worth a few bucks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thieves' Guild Enforcer

Temple of Deceit and Clearwater Pathway are also worth keeping an eye on if Dimir Rogues remains top tier. Lastly, Agadeem's Awakening is one I’m going to watch closely for its utility in the Rogues (and other) lists.

By following the metagame and playing Magic Arena, I’ve been better able to follow these trends and metagame calls. It’s even making it easier for me to find bulk worth keeping, such as Drown in the Loch and, more recently, Cling to Dust.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cling to Dust

Wrapping It Up

Recently, I shared a tweet that communicated my sentiment towards Magic.

The above statement really highlights how I’m feeling during this pandemic. It’s hard staying home day after day, and I find myself scrounging for activities to keep me entertained while also feeling productive.

If you’re in the same boat, then I highly recommend Magic as that outlet. I shared three different ways I’ve found Magic to fill voids throughout my day. I’ve been spending my newfound free time hunting for credit arbitrage, picking my bulk to ship to buylists, and learning the Standard metagame by playing Magic Arena. Each of these activities is keeping me sane while potentially making Magic a little bit cheaper to play.

I recently used my ABUGames credit arbitrage to pick up a pair of heavily played Beta Counterspells. I hope to grind out a little more credit to complete the playset for my Old School deck. While this is a priority for me, in reality I’m in no rush. This pandemic isn’t ending anytime soon, so I am confident I’ll find the time and the arbitrage to help me finish this playset at a modest discount to the market, while helping me stay engaged and distracted in the process

Draft Video: Zendikar Rising – Draft 1

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Join me as I navigate a best of three traditional draft of Zendikar Rising on Arena! Below is a link to the videos (there are three parts).

Two things to keep in mind:

  1. Arena hiccuped on me while I was attempting to start my first match. So you'll hear me mention that while I'm playing, but I ended up still being able to play all three rounds.
  2. My family came home towards the end of the draft, so don't mind their talking in the background. The interruptions should be brief!

Link to draft videos

Please comment below if you'd like to see more content on Quiet Speculation like this. I can provide more Arena draft videos and Standard/Historic play if there's enough interest! Thanks for watching!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Finding Value in the New Standard

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I wasn't sure that I was going to be able to type the following sentence any time soon but here it goes: Standard is a healthy and relatively diverse format again. As of late, I've been avoiding the topic of Standard and just fantasizing about eternal formats instead. After the latest bannings post Grand Finals, I've been taking a long hard look at the new Standard format and thinking about the potential value to be found there (with plenty of breaks to play Death and Taxes in Historic on MagicĀ Arena).

After accidentally talking with Chroberry about the new Standard meta for way longer than we planned on our last QS Insider Podcast, I figured I should take a closer look at some of the movers and shakers popping up in the power vacuum left over after Omnath's banning.

UB Control

Variations on blue-black control seem to be the most powerful and popular decks out of the gate when surveying the current metagame, with many of the decks running mill strategies involving Ruin Crab. Other versions stick to a more value-oriented package, having access to the best removal and counterspells currently in the format. No matter the style of control, the fact that these lists have gained popularity means there might be an opportunity for certain Standard cards that weren't seeing much play seeing an increase in value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashiok, Nightmare Muse

One of the cards that has been played against me a lot on the Arena ladder recently is Ashiok, Nightmare Muse. The first time it hit the digital table across from me, I was honestly taken aback, forgetting about the once-hyped card from Theros: Beyond Death. After my initial moment of shock, I promptly lost to it. With Ashiok being backed up by excessive removal and counterspells, it turns out to be a hard card to beat. Initially being one of the more expensive cards to preorder from the Theros reboot, Ashiok eventually fell to the four to five dollar range, remaining there for most of 2020.

Now, most of the decks I have been seeing aren't playing a full playset, like the rad UB list that O-danielakos took to a 5-0 finish in a Standard League on 10/19/20 on MTGO that only ran one copy, but it's a super-powerful Mythic from a set that's not really being opened, so I could see it starting to spike soon if these UB lists keep doing well on the ladder.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shark Typhoon

Another card that has consistently popular since the recent banning is Shark Typhoon from Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths. I've always thought Shark Typhoon was a neat card, but it never felt like it could find its place as a format staple. After the recent bannings though, it feels like Shark Typhoon is clawing its way to a top position in the meta, and its price is starting to reflect that.

It features as a four-of in the same list that O-danielakos played Ashiok in and other UB lists like it, while also showing up in lists like the Azorius Blink list that Heavenfall took to a 5-0 finish in a Standard League on MTGO on 10/15/20. If you don't have your copies yet, it's likely that you've missed out on getting them on the cheap. I think there's still room to grow for the card, and if you want them to play while they're still in Standard you should move quick!

Rakdos Midrange

I just realized after looking at my notes again that the next two cards we're going to be talking about are also mythics from Theros: Beyond Death like Ashiok. It's interesting to me that this set is starting to see more time in the sun all of a sudden! Ox of Agonas wasn't really a card I was expecting to see much of anytime soon, but with UB and Rogues lists focusing on milling their opponents out, the mighty Ox has found a place in many lists that run red, slotting nicely into UB's counter in the meta, Rakdos Midrange.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ox of Agonas

Copies of the Ox can still be had around the two-dollar mark, but if red decks continue seeing success while running it I could definitely see it rising in price. Most decks only seem to be running one or two copies, like the list that Montserrat Ayensa took to the 2020 Grand Season Finals that ran two copies, but if its popularity continues to rise I think a price increase wouldn't be out of the question.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger

Speaking of cards that don't mind going up against mill strategies, Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger is back in the limelight! Kroxa was everywhere before Cauldron Familiar's banning, fading into obscurity for a bit during the heavy Omnath, Locus of Creation meta, but now that UB strategies have surged in favor Kroxa is starting to see plenty of more play and its price looks like it is creeping back up again as a result.

All of the Rakdos Midrange lists similar to Montserrat's are running four copies and I've been running into our Elder Giant friend again with great frequency on the Arena ladder. I wouldn't necessarily run out and try to speculate on copies at this point, but if you missed your chance to sell copies you were sitting on before the last time Kroxa fell out of favor, now or in the near future would be a good time to part with them if you're not playing with them!

Other Hits

There's plenty of other cards doing work in the new Standard format besides just pieces from the two of the top decks in the format right now, and one of them is a card I haven't been able to shut up about for weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skyclave Apparition

The first time I wrote about Skyclave Apparation, you could get copies right around the two-dollar mark, and now copies are going for seven-plus dollars! A lot of the price increase is being driven by it being played more and more in eternal taxes styled decks, but if a Standard list has access to white there's a good chance it's playing Skyclave Apparition.

Azorious Blink lists like the one I mentioned earlier are all playing three to four copies, and I've been seeing it played in GW and BW lists of all kinds on the Arena ladder. The best time to pick up copies of this Apparition has passed, but I think if you can get in around seven dollars there's still room for the card's value to keep growing, especially if it keeps performing well in eternal formats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doom Foretold

Doom Foretold seems to be making a comeback in Standard, which isn't something I was expecting! It's not a huge part of the meta, but I've been running into more and more Doom Foretold lists on the ladder and the card seems to perform well in the new format we've found ourselves in since the banning.

The price for this card is at rock bottom right now, and I think it would be worth keeping an eye on if its popularity continues to rise! Plus, it's a super fun card. I've been rocking this crazy Offspring's Revenge list that Twitch user lordwillx shared with me during my last stream that features three copies of Doom Foretold, and it's been a blast!

Well, friends, that's it from me today! Have you had a chance to play much Standard since the newest bannings? What do you think of the format these days? Feel free to hit me up on Twitter, Twitch, YouTube, or in the QS Discord any time if you'd like to chat! I hope you are all doing well and staying safe out there. Take care of each other - I'll see you next week!

 

QS Insider Cast: New Standard, Commander Legends Leaks, and Eternal Weekend!

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Welcome back to the QS Insider Podcast! Chris O'Berry and Joe DavidsonĀ discuss new Standard, leaks and rumors from Commander Legends, Eternal Weekend featuring Legacy, and more! This cast was originally broadcasted live to Insiders in theĀ QS Insider Discord, October 18th, 2020.

Show Notes

  • New Standard is here and diverse - decks and cards to watch
  • Rumors and Leaks -Ā Commander Legends and Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
  • Eternal Weekend featuring Legacy is huge! - a call for bans of Oko, Thief of Crowns and Arcum's Astrolabe
  • Some Reserved List talk - City in a Bottle, Ring of Immortals, Argivian Archaeologist at all-time highs

Wanna Chat? Find us in the QS Discord or on Social Media

Chroberry - Twitter / Instagram / Twitch

Joe - Twitch / YouTube / Twitter

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