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Standard Commons and Uncommons Watch List

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Last week I wrote about how I leverage Magic to keep myself distracted during this pandemic. One of those suggestions involved organizing bulk and then sifting through commons and uncommons looking for nickels and dimes to ship to buylists. This remains one of my favorite time-killing activities.

Typically, this activity starts with a couple more meaningful cards that I intend to buylist. Recently I had a played Hellfire that I flipped to Card Kingdom while they were offering $105 on near mint copies ($73.50 for HP). After adding this card to my sell cart, I browse a few sets I have bulk from to see if I can ship anything additionally—I’m paying shipping already, so why not?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hellfire

In repeating this practice numerous times, I’ve noticed a trend. After Standard rotates and the metagame shifts, commons and uncommons that see a significant bump in play—especially those from the previous year—see a measurable jump in value.

This week I’ll share some of the most valuable and played commons/uncommons in Standard as a way to encourage folks to keep the new stuff organized and to watch the metagame for clues on what to pick out of bulk.

Throne of Eldraine

Throne of Eldraine has to be one of the most overpowered sets in recent history. When was the last time so many cards from a single set were banned in Standard? Mirrodin? Urza’s Saga? It’s incredible. So far we’ve seen Cauldron Familiar, Escape to the Wilds, Fires of Invention, Lucky Clover, Oko, Thief of Crowns, and Once Upon a Time all banned.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that some of the most valuable commons and uncommons in Standard come from Throne of Eldraine. And with the recent turnover in the metagame, some prices may be surprisingly high. Keep in mind, I’m not looking at the Brawl Deck cards; I’ll only be focusing on cards you can open from a typical booster pack.

The leader of this group by far is Drown in the Loch. Card Kingdom pays a whopping $1.80 for this uncommon. Though a little less dominant, this is the Fatal Push / Path to Exile of Standard right now. Being two colors limits the decks this card can go in, but it’s still a four-of in any list that involves the Rogues strategy. In Rogues, this is basically a split card that says “destroy target creature” on one side and “counter target spell” on the other. For two mana!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drown in the Loch

Distantly behind Drown in the Loch are a few other popular Standard cards. This includes Mystical Dispute, All that Glitters, and Mystic Sanctuary, which buylist for $0.72, $0.36, and $0.24 respectively. Mystical Dispute is definitely going to remain relevant for the rest of its time in Standard. The other two are a little more meta-specific. Either way, these are definitely worth picking out of your bulk boxes and draft chafe to ship for a bump in your next buylist!

Theros Beyond Death

Theros Beyond Death wasn’t as powerful as Throne of Eldraine when it came to requiring Standard bans. Only Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath earned the boot from Standard from this set. But in my [now daily] Arena play, I come across a few commons and uncommons from the set that are worth picking.

Funny enough, a couple popular sideboard cards are some of the most valuable uncommons from Theros Beyond Death. Soul-Guide Lantern and Cling to Dust have both seen elevated play lately. They are effective at slowing the Rogues deck down while also disrupting your opponents’ plans with Escape cards. They also can disrupt a Call of the Death-Dweller type effect in a pinch. These two cards buylist for $0.60 and $0.25, respectively.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Guide Lantern

Other noteworthy uncommons from Theros Beyond Death include Hydra's Growth. Destiny Spinner, and perpetually-obnoxious enchantment The Birth of Meletis. These three cards can be shipped to a buylist for $0.52, $0.32, and $0.26 respectively, and should definitely be picked and shipped while you’re mailing in a buylist anyways.

Looking Ahead

I could repeat this exercise for newer sets. But the reality is, they’re still too fresh to merit really aggressive buylist pricing. I’ve been monitoring Ikoria commons and uncommons since the set’s release and there’s very little that can net you more than a quarter. Like a fine wine, these cards have to age a little bit before they are at their most valuable.

That said, I want to look at Ikoria, Magic 2021, and Zendikar Rising to identify which commons and uncommons are seeing the most Standard play. This will be a “watch list” of cards that are worth picking now in anticipation of a bump in value in a few months.

Topping the list is Heartless Act from Ikoria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heartless Act

This premier removal spell can already be buylisted for $0.65. But I think that number is likely to climb. Like Drown in the Loch, this will become a go-to removal spell for many decks during its time in Standard. Right now Drown in the Loch buylists for nearly triple Heartless Act—I suspect this gap will close in the coming months. Heartless Act may have some restrictions in its utility, but it only requires one color, which is a huge plus for the uncommon.

If UR spells rises in popularity in Standard, Sprite Dragon could see higher prices. Right now it can be buylisted for $0.50—I’m not confident in a climb from there but I’ll be watching the Standard metagame closely to find out. The same can be said for Ikoria’s Bastion of Remembrance, which is very metagame dependent. Lastly, Zenith Flare could see a significant bump if cycling finds a spot in the Standard metagame.

From Magic 2021 I have my eye on a couple key cards that see extensive play in Standard. Cultivate is a reprint, but hasn’t been in a Standard set since Core Set 2011. I don’t know how much its million printings in Commander sets will hamper its potential, though. I expect the card will remain relevant and will climb a little bit, but I’m a bigger fan of a different Magic 2021 uncommon: Eliminate. This is yet another popular removal spell in Standard (noticing a trend?).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eliminate

Lastly, again dependent on the metagame, Village Rites is likely worth picking and holding aside. The card only buylists for a measly $0.08 now, but this could get to a quarter if the metagame favors it during its lifetime in Standard.

Finally, there’s Zendikar Rising, Standard’s newest set. There are a couple cards I would definitely pick from bulk and set aside for a future buylist. Topping the list is…you guessed it, another removal spell! I would argue Bloodchief's Thirst is one of the best removal spells we’ve seen printed in quite some time. For one mana it can kill a pesky Scavenging Ooze or Edgewall Innkeeper. Or for the fully kicked four mana, this deals with nearly every threat in the game, including heavy hitters like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. This buylists for a quarter today, but I can see it selling for over a buck next summer.

Two other cards I’m keeping a close eye on from Zendikar Rising are Feed the Swarm and Ruin Crab. The former is yet another removal spell—it’s only a common, but it does something that black historically has struggled with: kills enchantments. Don’t forget Theros Beyond Death had a heavy enchantment theme. There are likely to be good targets for this sorcery-speed removal spell as long as Theros is Standard-legal.

As for Ruin Crab…well players love their milling strategies. This will always be popular in casual mill decks in any and all formats. Hedron Crab is worth $5. Think about that. Granted it was printed only in original Zendikar and the Mystery Booster set. Still, as long as it dodges reprint, Ruin Crab has got to be one of the safest penny stock plays. It should also get a boost from Standard play. I can see this uncommon buylisting for a buck or two this time next year.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hedron Crab

Wrapping It Up

With more time on my hands, I’m noticing a trend when picking my Standard set bulk. When Ikoria was initially released, I picked through my bulk for a Card Kingdom buylist and there were only a couple cards worth a nickel. As the set has aged, the most played commons and uncommons have steadily climbed in price. The same has happened with Theros Beyond Death and Throne of Eldraine.

This trend will surely continue, and the most popular commons and uncommons from Zendikar Rising, and Magic 2021. In anticipation of this trend, I’d spend the time required to sift through any bulk you may have from this set and put aside some key cards. Removal spells seem to be in high demand right now given Standard is filled with tier 1 decks that like to attack. But mill strategies are always casual favorites, so keep an eye on Ruin Crab as well.

With this strategy, you’ll never break the bank. It can be time-consuming as well. But if you’ve got some spare time on your hands and want to feel like you’re being productive (especially during a pandemic), organizing your Standard bulk and keeping aside key picks for a rainy-day buylist just may be what you need. It’s one of my favorite activities for calming my mind, and I hope to continue the practice as each new set comes out.

Shadow of Shadow: Examining Rakdos Prowess

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As October comes to a close, it's time for me to wrap up my look into the new decks from Zendikar Rising. Admittedly, it's mostly been a case of deck evolution rather than outright new decks. Even Belcher had a direct predecessor. And that's a good thing. Modern's been churning non-stop for over a year. It's nice to have time to refine and rebuild rather than adapt to entirely new metagames constantly. It would be even nicer if we had paper Magic to provide some metagame stability and consistency. The online metagame moves incredibly quickly, and decks are emerging and declining with alarming speed. Today I'm looking at a great example.

The one arguably exception to my earlier statement is Oops, All Spells. Nothing like it has ever existed in Modern before, nor was it possible in any fashion (to my knowledge) before Rising. I'd argue back that first, it actually isn't new. Travis Woo tried to make it work in 2015. He didn't succeed, but that's beside the point. The newest version appeared after Belcher starting popping up, largely as a result of players trying to fix the problems Belcher had. Secondly, everything I previously said about Belcher applies to Oops. It's busted when everything comes together, but making that happen is prohibitive. And it's a lot more vulnerable to hate than Belcher is. There's just not enough to say about the deck for a whole article.

Prowess Ascendant

Not so for today's deck, which has already had several articles to its name. During the Rising preview season, I noted that Scourge of the Skyclaves had potential in Modern. The only question was how to lower the opponent's lifetotal fast enough to make Scourge worthwhile, but not so fast that it was easier to just kill the opponent without needing Scourge. I didn't have an answer at the time, and because Prowess was so dominant, I didn't think I'd get one anytime soon. Prowess was so explosive already; what exactly was gained by slowing down for Scourge?

However, as Jordan noted, while there were plenty of homes available for Scourge, Rakdos Prowess made the most sense. It was actually putting up results, had a pedigree, and the Prowess shell did the damage needed to turn on Scourge. More importantly, Scourge filled a hole in Prowess's attack. Jordan knows his way around a Swiftspear more than I do, and that relying on cheap prowess creatures is as much a weakness as a strength. The deck had been crying out for some beef for quite awhile, and Rising dropped the perfect addition. In fact, why stop there? Just go all in on the life-total dependent creatures and run Death's Shadow too. It was a new concept a the end of September, but was already putting up results. And the deck just looked brutal.

Shadow and Scourge

Apparently, the MTGO collective conscience agreed. If you search for Scourge in October, it's basically all Rakdos Shadow. And why not? The deck was surging at the end of September, and given how strong the basic Rakdos Prowess shell had proven, there was no stopping it in October.

Exactly what the deck looks like is a matter of taste. Some lists take an all-in approach, with Street Wraith, Crash Through, and extra Mutagenic Growths. Others plan for a grindier game with Bomat Courier and Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger. However, the most common configuration looks exactly like they just took out the non-one-drop creatures to make room for Scourge and Death's Shadow.

Rakdos Shadow, SKK (4-1 Modern Preliminary 10/21)

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Soul-Scar Mage
4 Death's Shadow
4 Scourge of the Skyclaves

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
1 Unearth
1 Agadeem's Awakening

Instants

4 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mutagenic Growth
2 Apostle's Blessing
3 Temur Battle Rage
2 Dismember

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Blood Crypt
3 Arid Mesa
3 Marsh Flats
1 Mountain
1 Sunbaked Canyon
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Fatal Push
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Cleansing Wildfire
2 Feed the Swarm
2 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger
1 Kolaghan's Command
2 Kozilek's Return

I'm only being slightly disingenuous. The spell loadout of this representative deck is nearly identical to the most common Rakdos Prowess decks pre-Zendikar Rising. The main change has been to remove the prowess-critical Manamorphose to fit in Temur Battle Rage and Agadeem's Awakening. The reason (as far as I can determine) is that despite still playing the two best prowess creatures (don't @ me, Sprite Dragon), Rakdos Shadow just doesn't have or want to have the critical mass of spells in a single turn necessary to blow the opponent out of the water. This makes Manamorphose unnecessary air. Instead, it needs to maximize its spells slots to drop both life totals as fast as possible. I'm just thankful there's nothing like Flame Rift in Modern.

Variations on a Theme

In fact, it's worth noting that the combination of one-drop prowess creatures, Thoughtseize, and Lurrus of the Dream-Den (which is always a companion for Rakdos Shadow) has yielded one of, if not the, most successful decks this year. Pre-pandemic, various prowess shells were doing well. I thought the Rakdos version was better against the Primeval Titans running around, but Mono-Red was more common.

That all changed with the pre-errata companions. Whether as Rakdos Prowess, in Jund, or in Burn, Lurrus was the defining card of that era. And the vast majority of Lurrus decks were running Swiftspear and Thoughtseize. It makes perfect sense: Thoughtseize is the perfect disruption for this style of deck, Swiftspear benefits from the cheap spell, and Lurrus provides the card advantage to keep the gas pumping. Rakdos Prowess is just the latest beneficiary of this positive cycle.

A New Twist

The big change, and I suspect the reason for Rakdos Shadow overtaking all other options, is Scourge's combo with Temur Battle Rage. In case you don't know, if the opponent is at 15 life and Scourge's controller is at 10, then Battle Rage on Scourge is lethal: the first hit deals five, and the second deals 10. This is a much easier and lower-work kill than previous Battle Rage decks laid claim to. As Grixis Death's Shadow taught us well in 2017, it is very easy to get one's own life very low very quickly. Getting the opponent low enough only requires one Bolt hit and a Swiftspear. Two-card combos are powerful, and it has proven itself to the satisfaction of many pilots.

An Ugly Reality

The catch is that it doesn't appear to have stuck. The October data is nearly finished, and I can tell you that Rakdos Shadow will be Tier 1, probably at the top of the standings. However, I'm not sure it really deserves that position. Without the last week of data tabulated, I can't be overly definitive. That said, Rakdos Shadow is only pulling 1.44 points per result, and that number has been falling steadily since early October. The usual average of the averages being 1.6, Shadow is definitely performing below average. Additionally, at least half of its results came in the first ten days of October. The rest of the month has been a struggle for Rakdos Prowess, and I'm inclined to think that it's actually worse today that it was in September.

Inherited Flaws

One can always blame these kinds of collapses on changing metagames, adaptation, or popularity shifts, and sometimes it's right to do so. MTGO has long had a reputation for being far more volatile than paper for a reason. However, I think that explanation is inappropriate this time. The lifegain out of the Uro piles is certainly devastating against Rakdos Shadow, but that was a problem it overcame before. If Shadow really was a top tier deck, it would do so again. Meanwhile, popularity swings affect every deck. If a deck is winning enough, it should hold players interest over time. If Shadow did suffer a popularity decline, it is a reflection of doing poorly in the meta rather than player whims.

I think the likely explanation for Shadow's October decline is that in exchange for a boost in explosiveness, it has inherited all the known weaknesses of its predecessor decks. And one unique problem. The primary problem is that, as I mentioned before, Rakdos Shadow is not really a new deck, just the natural heir to 2020's most popular card combination. Players were ready to fight this deck because they'd already had to fight Rakdos Prowess. Sweepers, creature removal, and lifegain are all as effective against both builds.

An offshoot of that is the Path to Exile problem. Between Lurrus, Unearth, and Agadeem's Awakening, Shadow is well set up to beat Fatal Push. None of those cards work against Path, which is the most played removal spell now thanks to Omnath piles and Death and Taxes. Giving up the haste threats and Bedlam Reveler for beef has left Shadow in a position to be run out of threats as they get exiled by Path and Celestial Purge.

A Huge Weakness

The unique problem is that Rakdos Shadow has one card that it is extremely weak to. There have been plenty of decks that lose to a particular type of card, chiefly graveyard hate, in Modern's history. However, I don't think that any deck has ever struggled against a single card the way that Shadow does against Auriok Champion. Protection from both the deck's colors is significant on its own as a brick wall. However, if that were enough, then Paladin en-Vec would see play. What matters is the lifegain. Champion triggers from both player's creatures, so trying to go around the Champion just plays into it. And that means that it becomes harder and harder to cast Scourge. When it does hit, Champion can potentially kill Scourge if there's a flurry of creatures afterward.

Shadow decks are, of course, aware of this weakness. Some run Bonecrusher Giant or Skullcrack and hope to bait a favorable block. Some splash white off Sunbaked Canyon to fit Path themselves. The most common solution is Kozilek's Return, which is arguably best, since a sweeper will also be good against the decks that would run Champion. But 2 damage isn't very effective against Humans, Giver of Runes protects against colorless, and both Humans and DnT run more Champions than Shadow runs Returns. The math decidedly favors Champion, and may explain a recent increase in Humans' numbers.

Compared to the Classic

A more general problem I have with Rakdos Shadow is how it compares to classic Grixis Death's Shadow. Classic GDS has lost a lot of its punch, but its success and longevity hold lessons for Scourge Shadow. GDS had a very similar gameplan of killing quickly with a huge creature being "cheated" out. It used similar tools of cantrips, creature removal, and discard.

However, GDS is more of a tempo or aggro-control deck, where Scourge Shadow is more or less straight aggro with some combo potential. GDS looked to rip-up the opponent's hand with lots of discard spells, play a threat, and then protect it with Stubborn Denial. This gave GDS incredible matchup flexibility and left it a commanding presence in Modern for many years.

Rakdos Shadow is far more linear. With less discard, it can't disrupt opponents as proactively. Its only way to save creatures is Apostle's Blessing, and not every version even plays that. Instead, the plan is to spread the board with cheap creatures and outrace the opponent. The most effective disruption is just winning the game, after all. Shadow is far more linear and single-minded as a result. This is a fine strategy, but it also makes it easier to answer and adapt to. And since Shadow decks at the end of October look so similar to those from September, while everything else has changed their sideboards, I think the Shadow decks may have fallen behind the curve.

For What It's Worth

I think that Rakdos Shadow is a fine deck and has a place in Modern. However, it needs to reevaluate itself and adapt to the changing meta. The holes and opportunities that it exploited early on have closed, and the meta is now prepared. The ball's in your court, Scourge Shadow. Time to make a play.

Staying Productive with Magic During this Pandemic

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If you live on planet Earth, you may find you have fewer viable activities to keep busy nowadays. COVID-19 has essentially brought the world to its knees, impacting sports, special events, work, gyms, conventions, and more. Of course, included in this list are all major in-person Magic tournaments.

Despite still [fortunately] working full time and having two children at home, I still find myself with a bit more free time than I previously had. This includes at least an hour and a half each day saved because I don’t have a commute—I’ve been working from home since March. Fewer activities both for myself and my kids mean more time for sitting around the house seeking out new forms of entertainment.

One of the effective fillers I’ve found for this downtime comes from Magic. I can’t play in person or attend a MagicFest to buy and sell cards, but I’ve found other ways to tap into this amazing hobby to spend my time and keep entertained.

This week I’m going to share three ways Magic has filled a void for me and kept me entertained (and arguably sane) during this pandemic.

Seeking Out Arbitrage

This can be a time-consuming approach to making Magic a little bit cheaper to play. You may even find some profitable opportunities. If you find you’ve got more time to kill during COVID-19, you could try this calming, productive practice. I’ve written about the store credit arbitrage practice time and again, but for new readers, I’ll provide a brief summary and then share recent examples.

The practice itself is simple but also time-consuming. You pull up two Magic websites—you can pick from eBay, TCGplayer, Star City Games, Card Kingdom, ABUGames, Cool Stuff Inc, Channel Fireball, etc., but one of the two sites must have a posted buylist that’s easy to browse. Then you examine the stock of one site and compare it against the buylist of the other site. If the math works out such that you can buy cards from site 1 and sell to site 2 for profit (usually requires accepting store credit), then add it to your cart. Do this enough to make an order worth the shipping, and pull the trigger.

I like this procedure even more when working with two major vendors with buylists, so that you can flip store credit back and forth rather than continually investing cash. But it may be that you have to start with cash before morphing to store credit. Don’t forget that if you’re using ABUGames, you’ll need to account for their inflated credit numbers—this makes it a bit more complex but also easier if you can find the right cards to flip.

I’ll share two recent examples.

First, I noticed a pricing discrepancy in International Edition cards between Star City Games and the rest of the market. It seems they still have lower prices on these cards, which have climbed in popularity and price recently. I brought up Star City’s International Edition stock and compared it alongside ABUGames’ buylist. Sure enough, I found opportunities to spend cash at Star City Games to obtain store credit at ABUGames at a rate of approximately 63%. That is, $100 in ABUGames store credit cost me about $63 in cash.

I put together a cart containing many random International Edition rares including Roc of Kher Ridges, Deathlace, Fastbond, Elvish Archers, and more. Over fifty cards in all were available to flip. In many cases, Star City’s “Played” condition could still pass for near mint on ABUGames’ grading guide (though this is never a guarantee and should not be assumed). At the end of the day, I was able to assemble an order that cost just under $300 (including shipping) and would net me around $475 in store credit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Roc Of Kher Ridges

As of right now, ABUGames didn’t have a ton of compelling cards in stock so I had to get creative in order to avoid picking up severely overpriced cards. But a couple weeks ago, this wasn’t the case. As a second example, I obtained ABUGames store credit and used it to pick up a played Hellfire for $43.69. Card Kingdom has recently paid as much as $100 for near mint, or $70 for heavily played copies. This (and similar Legends cards) can be used to create credit arbitrage from ABUGames to Card Kingdom…if ABUGames ever restocks!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hellfire

Sorting and Picking Commons and Uncommons

Here’s a funny story to inspire readers. A few years ago, I decided to pick up a complete set of Homelands. I found a set on eBay for about $45, and it came to me with numerous duplicates of virtually every card. Clearly the seller didn’t value Homelands cards all that much (can you blame them?). I promptly buylisted the Reserved List cards and flagship uncommons (i.e. Merchant Scroll) but I was left with a ton of extra Homelands bulk.

What did I do with it all? I kept one copy of each Homelands card for myself, and put the rest into a box. Then, every time I shipped a buylist to ABUGames or Card Kingdom, I checked their buylist for Homelands cards. Any time they offered a few cents to a nickel on one of the cards in my extras box, I added it to the list.

A couple years later, and I’ve converted nearly every extra bulk Homelands card into a nickel—dozens if not 100-200 virtually worthless cards into store credit. Here’s all that is left:

 

Seven cards. Just seven unique cards remain from a box of 100’s of duplicate Homelands cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winter Sky

I tell this story to highlight a practice I pursue whenever I have spare time (which is more often nowadays). Since I’m shipping cards to buylists anyways, I like to browse my modestly sized collection for bulk commons, uncommons, lands, and tokens that I can ship for incremental store credit. The cost to ship one card to a buylist is the same as the cost to ship 40 cards because USPS charges the same for thick envelopes from one to four ounces. Why not fill up that space with some bulk?

If you’re thinking this is overwhelming and that your bulk collection is too large, then start small. If I don’t have hours to spend looking for nickels, I just look at a couple sets’ commons and uncommons for nickels and dimes. Then I rotate through the sets as I submit multiple buylists. By the time I finish the last set and go back to the beginning, the buylist changed and new cards are included.

Of course, this is easier if you have your cards sorted by set and color. This is another activity I’d highly recommend if you’re looking to kill time during this pandemic. The practice can be done with multi-tasking (doesn’t require your undivided attention) and can make picking for nickels and dimes much easier.

Magic Arena

Last but not least, one of the best things I’ve discovered during this pandemic is Magic Arena. While not a Magic finance strategy, it is a Magic activity that helps pass time and keeps me engaged.

That said, Magic Arena does hold a couple possible finance benefits. Most obviously, there are tournaments you could enter and win to make some money. I haven’t tried any yet and they’re probably more competitive than your weekly FNM, but they are still opportunities to make some money from Magic if you’re a good enough player and are missing in-person events.

But the other benefit to playing Magic Arena is my ability to keep up with the Standard metagame. I used to ignore new cards and Standard altogether, likely missing out on speculation opportunities. Now I’m fully versed in the metagame, bannings, and shifts in strategy that could lead to opportunities for speculation.

For example, I know that the recent bannings has led to the rise in decks that leverage Yorion, Sky Nomad. As Ikoria ages, Yorion could see a small price bump and could be worth picking up at just a buck each. Rogues are also all the rage right now, and Thieves' Guild Enforcer is a key card in all variants of the list. So I’m not ignorant of the fact that the card is suddenly worth a few bucks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thieves' Guild Enforcer

Temple of Deceit and Clearwater Pathway are also worth keeping an eye on if Dimir Rogues remains top tier. Lastly, Agadeem's Awakening is one I’m going to watch closely for its utility in the Rogues (and other) lists.

By following the metagame and playing Magic Arena, I’ve been better able to follow these trends and metagame calls. It’s even making it easier for me to find bulk worth keeping, such as Drown in the Loch and, more recently, Cling to Dust.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cling to Dust

Wrapping It Up

Recently, I shared a tweet that communicated my sentiment towards Magic.

The above statement really highlights how I’m feeling during this pandemic. It’s hard staying home day after day, and I find myself scrounging for activities to keep me entertained while also feeling productive.

If you’re in the same boat, then I highly recommend Magic as that outlet. I shared three different ways I’ve found Magic to fill voids throughout my day. I’ve been spending my newfound free time hunting for credit arbitrage, picking my bulk to ship to buylists, and learning the Standard metagame by playing Magic Arena. Each of these activities is keeping me sane while potentially making Magic a little bit cheaper to play.

I recently used my ABUGames credit arbitrage to pick up a pair of heavily played Beta Counterspells. I hope to grind out a little more credit to complete the playset for my Old School deck. While this is a priority for me, in reality I’m in no rush. This pandemic isn’t ending anytime soon, so I am confident I’ll find the time and the arbitrage to help me finish this playset at a modest discount to the market, while helping me stay engaged and distracted in the process

Draft Video: Zendikar Rising – Draft 1

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Join me as I navigate a best of three traditional draft of Zendikar Rising on Arena! Below is a link to the videos (there are three parts).

Two things to keep in mind:

  1. Arena hiccuped on me while I was attempting to start my first match. So you'll hear me mention that while I'm playing, but I ended up still being able to play all three rounds.
  2. My family came home towards the end of the draft, so don't mind their talking in the background. The interruptions should be brief!

Link to draft videos

Please comment below if you'd like to see more content on Quiet Speculation like this. I can provide more Arena draft videos and Standard/Historic play if there's enough interest! Thanks for watching!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Finding Value in the New Standard

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I wasn't sure that I was going to be able to type the following sentence any time soon but here it goes: Standard is a healthy and relatively diverse format again. As of late, I've been avoiding the topic of Standard and just fantasizing about eternal formats instead. After the latest bannings post Grand Finals, I've been taking a long hard look at the new Standard format and thinking about the potential value to be found there (with plenty of breaks to play Death and Taxes in Historic on Magic Arena).

After accidentally talking with Chroberry about the new Standard meta for way longer than we planned on our last QS Insider Podcast, I figured I should take a closer look at some of the movers and shakers popping up in the power vacuum left over after Omnath's banning.

UB Control

Variations on blue-black control seem to be the most powerful and popular decks out of the gate when surveying the current metagame, with many of the decks running mill strategies involving Ruin Crab. Other versions stick to a more value-oriented package, having access to the best removal and counterspells currently in the format. No matter the style of control, the fact that these lists have gained popularity means there might be an opportunity for certain Standard cards that weren't seeing much play seeing an increase in value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashiok, Nightmare Muse

One of the cards that has been played against me a lot on the Arena ladder recently is Ashiok, Nightmare Muse. The first time it hit the digital table across from me, I was honestly taken aback, forgetting about the once-hyped card from Theros: Beyond Death. After my initial moment of shock, I promptly lost to it. With Ashiok being backed up by excessive removal and counterspells, it turns out to be a hard card to beat. Initially being one of the more expensive cards to preorder from the Theros reboot, Ashiok eventually fell to the four to five dollar range, remaining there for most of 2020.

Now, most of the decks I have been seeing aren't playing a full playset, like the rad UB list that O-danielakos took to a 5-0 finish in a Standard League on 10/19/20 on MTGO that only ran one copy, but it's a super-powerful Mythic from a set that's not really being opened, so I could see it starting to spike soon if these UB lists keep doing well on the ladder.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shark Typhoon

Another card that has consistently popular since the recent banning is Shark Typhoon from Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths. I've always thought Shark Typhoon was a neat card, but it never felt like it could find its place as a format staple. After the recent bannings though, it feels like Shark Typhoon is clawing its way to a top position in the meta, and its price is starting to reflect that.

It features as a four-of in the same list that O-danielakos played Ashiok in and other UB lists like it, while also showing up in lists like the Azorius Blink list that Heavenfall took to a 5-0 finish in a Standard League on MTGO on 10/15/20. If you don't have your copies yet, it's likely that you've missed out on getting them on the cheap. I think there's still room to grow for the card, and if you want them to play while they're still in Standard you should move quick!

Rakdos Midrange

I just realized after looking at my notes again that the next two cards we're going to be talking about are also mythics from Theros: Beyond Death like Ashiok. It's interesting to me that this set is starting to see more time in the sun all of a sudden! Ox of Agonas wasn't really a card I was expecting to see much of anytime soon, but with UB and Rogues lists focusing on milling their opponents out, the mighty Ox has found a place in many lists that run red, slotting nicely into UB's counter in the meta, Rakdos Midrange.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ox of Agonas

Copies of the Ox can still be had around the two-dollar mark, but if red decks continue seeing success while running it I could definitely see it rising in price. Most decks only seem to be running one or two copies, like the list that Montserrat Ayensa took to the 2020 Grand Season Finals that ran two copies, but if its popularity continues to rise I think a price increase wouldn't be out of the question.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger

Speaking of cards that don't mind going up against mill strategies, Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger is back in the limelight! Kroxa was everywhere before Cauldron Familiar's banning, fading into obscurity for a bit during the heavy Omnath, Locus of Creation meta, but now that UB strategies have surged in favor Kroxa is starting to see plenty of more play and its price looks like it is creeping back up again as a result.

All of the Rakdos Midrange lists similar to Montserrat's are running four copies and I've been running into our Elder Giant friend again with great frequency on the Arena ladder. I wouldn't necessarily run out and try to speculate on copies at this point, but if you missed your chance to sell copies you were sitting on before the last time Kroxa fell out of favor, now or in the near future would be a good time to part with them if you're not playing with them!

Other Hits

There's plenty of other cards doing work in the new Standard format besides just pieces from the two of the top decks in the format right now, and one of them is a card I haven't been able to shut up about for weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skyclave Apparition

The first time I wrote about Skyclave Apparation, you could get copies right around the two-dollar mark, and now copies are going for seven-plus dollars! A lot of the price increase is being driven by it being played more and more in eternal taxes styled decks, but if a Standard list has access to white there's a good chance it's playing Skyclave Apparition.

Azorious Blink lists like the one I mentioned earlier are all playing three to four copies, and I've been seeing it played in GW and BW lists of all kinds on the Arena ladder. The best time to pick up copies of this Apparition has passed, but I think if you can get in around seven dollars there's still room for the card's value to keep growing, especially if it keeps performing well in eternal formats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doom Foretold

Doom Foretold seems to be making a comeback in Standard, which isn't something I was expecting! It's not a huge part of the meta, but I've been running into more and more Doom Foretold lists on the ladder and the card seems to perform well in the new format we've found ourselves in since the banning.

The price for this card is at rock bottom right now, and I think it would be worth keeping an eye on if its popularity continues to rise! Plus, it's a super fun card. I've been rocking this crazy Offspring's Revenge list that Twitch user lordwillx shared with me during my last stream that features three copies of Doom Foretold, and it's been a blast!

Well, friends, that's it from me today! Have you had a chance to play much Standard since the newest bannings? What do you think of the format these days? Feel free to hit me up on Twitter, Twitch, YouTube, or in the QS Discord any time if you'd like to chat! I hope you are all doing well and staying safe out there. Take care of each other - I'll see you next week!

 

QS Insider Cast: New Standard, Commander Legends Leaks, and Eternal Weekend!

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Welcome back to the QS Insider Podcast! Chris O'Berry and Joe Davidson discuss new Standard, leaks and rumors from Commander Legends, Eternal Weekend featuring Legacy, and more! This cast was originally broadcasted live to Insiders in the QS Insider Discord, October 18th, 2020.

Show Notes

  • New Standard is here and diverse - decks and cards to watch
  • Rumors and Leaks - Commander Legends and Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
  • Eternal Weekend featuring Legacy is huge! - a call for bans of Oko, Thief of Crowns and Arcum's Astrolabe
  • Some Reserved List talk - City in a Bottle, Ring of Immortals, Argivian Archaeologist at all-time highs

Wanna Chat? Find us in the QS Discord or on Social Media

Chroberry - Twitter / Instagram / Twitch

Joe - Twitch / YouTube / Twitter

Budget-Focused: Early Favorites from Zendikar Rising

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Welcome back everyone to another edition of Budget-Focused! Before we dive into all of that, I wanted to note that Quickling foils have been on the rise as of late! I highlighted this in an article a few months back that you can read here. There are even a few other gems mentioned that you should acquire as well if you have not already. Today, we shift gears a bit off the older cards of the Pioneer trail and look at some Zendikar Rising favorites to keep an eye on!

Another Toy for Sram and Feather Brews?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Akiri, Fearless Voyager

Akiri, Fearless Voyager is a card that, to me, screams Commander and Pioneer. The extended art foils and foil promos seem the most interesting. The current price for promos is at $2 and the foil extended art is coming in at around $15, with the foil extended art version starting to trend downward. I recommend keeping an eye on these, as we'll soon be nearing the floor.

Looking into where this can be used should be relatively simple. Immediately, Sram Commander decks come to mind as Akiri deals with equipment. Keep in mind that Sram cannot be the commander using this card, I'm just referencing the style of build this would fit into. Anything that can give us extra card advantage is a bonus to any build, especially more aggro decks prone to board wipes. Additionally, we can get behind using this in a Feather, the Redeemed build in Pioneer, or other decks utilizing equipment cards in the format.

The ability to unattach an equipment card to give a creature indestructible is another factor to consider with this, as it adds depth to a defensive scheme. Boros Weenie styled brews will really benefit from this in the case of a board wipe play. Overall, this may seem narrow, but the upside is worth noting and keeping an eye on long-term.

The Spirit That's Turning Heads

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skyclave Apparition

Skyclave Apparition is another card with long term potential. The extended art foil is already kind of high for budget-minded players sitting at $14.54. The thing we need to note here is that it is being used in both Modern and Legacy, which is great for long term value as we know. In Pioneer, it could easily be shoved into spirit builds given its lower-cmc and control ability. The ability to exile a threat for only 3 mana is huge, especially in a format like Pioneer.

The other thing to note here is that even when it is removed, the exiled card stays exiled. The downside is that your opponent gets an X/X Illusion token. It's far easier to play around a vanilla threat in most situations, so no biggie all things considered. Nonetheless, the upside of speed and control outweigh the only con with this card. This is one that could potentially hit over the $25.00 range long-term given its usage in Pioneer, among other eternal formats.

A Mana Rock to Get Long-Term

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skyclave Relic

The current price for Skyclave RelicExtended art foils is at $8.40, but has plenty of room to grow. There are plenty of artifact-focused Commander lists that could benefit from its unique kicker effect, creating two additional token copies of itself. Being indestructible adds even more value to this, in case our opponents are packing artifact destruction. As more Zendikar Rising packs are opened, this will likely trend downward, making it an attractive spec in the very near future.

In Pioneer, this has the potential to be utilized in both ramp and lotus filed styled brews. Regarding a long-term price, I wouldn't be surprised if this approached the $20.00 range should it see more widespread adoption in Commander.

Mill's New Favorite Crab?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruin Crab

Ruin Crab extended border foils are near guaranteed to go up and price as time goes on. Foils are $3.00 on average, and given the casual appeal of this card, I think this is a steal. Compare this to another crab we are all familiar with, Hedron Crab. The current price for Hedron Crab foils is $23.00 on average. Now, one could argue that Hedron crab has only a non-foil, a foil copy, and the mystery booster print, whereas Ruin Crab has four printings in total.

The reason for Ruin Crab to go up is simple: Commander. Looking at the text on both crabs,  one word sticks out, and that word is “each”. Hitting each player versus target player is something every mill commander player will love! Sure, there may be situations that you would rather target a specific player to mill, but the ability to mill each player has more advantage over targeting in a multiplayer game. If Hedron Crab foils over $20.00 are any indication, there is no reason the extended art Ruin Crab foils won't exceed a $10.00 price tag.

Relic Robber: Great for Gobbos and More!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relic Robber

Relic Robber extended art foils are our last diamond in the rough for this article. The current price for this is at $1.55 on average with plenty of room for growth. The price has gone down a bit since its release, but it should bounce back. Relic Robber seems like an auto-include in goblin tribal Commander decks, but also just compliments red decks in general. Creating pingers is fantastic, but there is another angle to consider with them. Having creatures on the board that ping your opponent(s) when creatures die is where this can come into play.

A converted mana cost of three may be a bit steep for this effect, but the upside is certainly there if this connects with an opponent. Playing this any time turn three or later is a benefit to us. This isn't necessarily a build-around card in most brews, aggressive, combat-focused decks could do some serious damage with this. Accelerating this out early with the various fast mana available in Commander isn't so tough, and it can get ugly for our opponents very quickly given an empty board and a lack of board wipes. The current price tag should not hold long term, and it could easily be over the $5.00 range.

Wrapping It Up

Wrapping up things today, I will say to keep a close eye on Zendikar Rising extended art cards going forward. There are others that we didn't touch on here that have great potential in the future. This set has a slew of interesting cards that have a lot of great synergies, and the hunt for Expeditions in collector boosters will ensure that these cards hit the market en masse.

Hope you all enjoyed the article, and be sure to come back for the next installment!

Omnath Impresses: A Study in Variations

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Zendikar Rising has had a notable effect on Modern, but it's been mostly positive. Whether it's making Death and Taxes finally viable or shaking up the Prowess decks, the new additions seem to be providing the right incentives without being oppressive. However, one card is drawing ire, mostly by association rather than anything it's actually done.

When Omnath, Locus of Creation was banned in Standard, I expected it to surge in Modern. That's usually just how it goes; when something gets banned in Standard, players don't want to give up on their cards, and try them in other formats. Omnath was an easier fit since it had already made some inroads, and with it being banned off Arena there really wasn't any other option. I haven't seen Omnath in Legacy, and Pioneer is... not thriving. That said, I haven't been too impressed by Omnath decks. I can see why players would be drawn to them and appreciate their power. However, they have a fundamental flaw that is easily exploitable.

The Card in Context

Granted, Omnath is far from a bad card. Omnath stands as a monument to ill-considered, all-upside, power-for-free card design that has plagued Magic (and caused an absurd number of Standard bannings) over the past few years. Seriously, did a 4/4 with a ridiculous landfall ability need to draw a card too? However, context is everything, and Omnath's Modern power is much lower than in Standard. Despite being easier to trigger thanks to the fetchlands, Omanth's stats and mana cost aren't anything special in Modern. Niv-Mizzet Reborn is just a mana more for flying, two additional points of power and toughness, and more upfront card advantage. And besides some lower-level league finishes, he's barely done anything in Modern.

The problem is that Standard is far slower than Modern and has worse answers. This let Omnath sit on the board more often and accrue value. Or, even better, take advantage of weak aggro decks and let Omnath hang out in hand until the time was optimal to cast it, play a land to trigger the lifegain, follow up with Fertile Footsteps, trigger the mana ability, then end the game with Escape to the Wilds. Modern's aggro decks kill on turn four and usually have some kind of disruption, so the optimal Omnath line isn't possible. And this isn't counting how much harder four-color decks have it in a format with Blood Moon and freshly divorced from Arcum's Astrolabe.

Thus, Omnath's supporting cast needs to be far better in Modern than Standard. And it certainly looks that way. Fetchlands aside, Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath is legal, and so is Wrenn and Six to keep the lands flowing. Then there's the much better creature removal to buy time to set Omnath up. On paper, things look promising to the point that some are already saying that Omnath's busted here, too.

Omnath in Practice

However, what's true in theory doesn't matter. Only practice matters, and despite appearances, the Omnath shells aren't impressing me. I've been playing DnT on MTGO, hitting various types of value Omnath decks, and winning fairly easily. I've also proxied up the deck and tested it against Humans and UW Stoneblade, and it doesn't do anything special. It's not awful, but it certainly doesn't seem bannable. For reference, I've been testing against this list:

4-Color Uro, bbotonline (League 5-0)

Creatures

4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
3 Omnath, Locus of Creation

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six
2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Enchantments

1 Felidar Retreat

Sorceries

2 Hour of Promise

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Leak
2 Growth Spiral
3 Force of Negation
3 Cryptic Command

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Flooded Strand
2 Field of the Dead
2 Field of Ruin
1 Breeding Pool
1 Forest
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Ketria Triome
1 Lonely Sandbar
1 Mystic Sanctuary
1 Raugrin Triome
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Grounds
1 Temple Garden
1 Vesuva

Sideboard

2 Engineered Explosives
1 Veil of Summer
2 Aether Gust
3 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Celestial Purge
1 Deflecting Palm
1 Gaea's Blessing
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Mystical Dispute
1 Timely Reinforcements
1 Supreme Verdict

There is quite a bit of variation between lists, but bbotonline's list is representative. All the value Omnath lists have a full set of Uro with 2-3 Omnath. They tend to have 3 Wrenn and Six, with 2-4 other planeswalkers (4 being most typical). bbotonline switched the Jace, the Mind Sculptor that most lists run for Felidar Retreat, and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria for another Hour of Promise.

The only ramp comes from 2 Growth Spirals. The rest of the spells are interactive, with the only constants being 4 Path to Exile. Everything else is negotiable or a metagame call.

This applies to the sideboard as well. Every value Uro deck that I've seen in October is running 29 lands. This is not, as one might expect, to make it easier to cast all the colored spells. In my experience, it actually has the opposite effect. No, the manabase is entirely bent towards maximizing Field of the Dead. I would go so far as to argue that these decks aren't Uro decks so much as Field ones. Uro's just a great setup card. In that light, bbotonline's Retreat makes more sense than the alternatives, as it serves as a castable Field.

The Essence of Durdle

And this all leads into the data I've collected. I don't have exact numbers for my online play, but I know that I have a very positive record against 4-Color Uro on MTGO. It's pretty devastating for a deck that's all about fetchlands to face Leonin Arbiter, but Thalia is also surprisingly strong. 4c Uro really needs to hit its curve, and Thalia is actually a significant burden (Growth Spiral for 3 mana?). Skyclave Apparition also exiles all the relevant permanents, so it's a very good matchup. As for the testing results, those are also not good for 4-Color Uro. Humans is currently sitting at 16 wins in 18 matches, while Stoneblade is 9 for 15. That's not broken deck territory.

The problem is that the four-color value lists, whether this Field/Uro centric or not, are massively durdly. To the point of actively doing nothing a lot of the time. In testing, Uro's had to mulligan very aggressively for hands that did anything. I'm not even talking about curving well, I literally mean that a lot of hands I've pulled have just done squat, playing a turn 3 Uro at most. Most of the problem is that the deck is exactly 48.3% lands. Most hands will be mostly lands by simple math.

The problem is made worse by so many of the spells being contextual, most prominently the counters. However, almost every permanent is an investment card. Given time, it will pay off, but the immediate impact is low. It's very easy for these 4c Uro decks to run out of gas simply because they don't have much to begin with. Unless they're rolling with Uro chains, there's just no force to them.

Feet of Clay

The manabase problem is actually much worse than just constant flood. As previously mentioned, it's actually quite difficult to cast all the colored spells thanks to the ridiculous curve and all the singleton lands. The ideal goldfish curve, as far as I can tell, is turn 2 Wrenn, turn 3 Uro with land drop, turn 4 Omnath, play fetchland, crack fetchland, use the five mana for Hour of Promise. This requires RG, then 1UG, and WURG, which means that a lot of thought must go into each fetch because, doing it even slightly wrong will severely constrain available mana down the line. And that's not getting into the additional calculations for Cryptic Command and Mystic Sanctuary. This is a deck that wants to and must hit every land drop perfectly.

And that's the problem. Uro plays 10 fetchlands and 2 Field of Ruin for fixing. That's less than half the lands in the deck, which means that it's more likely to end up with a hand without a fetchland unless you mulligan aggressively. Just keeping lands and spells is deadly for this deck because there is an alarmingly high chance that the lands in hand won't actually cast all the spells. Any stability or redundancy in the manabase has been sacrificed to maximize the odds of activating Field of the Dead. If the deck can't fetch for a Triome turn 1, it's already falling behind.

There is a Reason

Given all these problems, it would be tempting to just write the deck off as the latest value-town pile. However, this is tempered by the knowledge of how devastating it is when 4c Uro actually does go turn 2 Wrenn, turn 3 Uro with land drop, turn 4 Omnath, play fetchland, crack fetchland, use the five mana for Hour of Promise. That's an absurd amount of card advantage, board presence, and life swings. Combo as always doesn't care, but it's utterly devastating for any fair deck to try and fight through. It also just feels amazing to pull off and makes you dream about crushing opponents that thoroughly again. Which is my explanation for the deck's popularity; gotta chase that high (variance sequence).

This also frustrates me. The basic sequence of Wrenn, Uro, and Omnath is pretty overwhelming value-wise on its own. Continuing onto Field is crushing, but more akin to piling on. I can't suppress the thought that a lot is being sacrificed to Field when it doesn't need to be. Retreat is a perfectly serviceable analogue that doesn't require contorting the manabase. It constantly feels like the deck is deliberately choosing to lose a lot of fast games in order to dominate the long ones. It's why it's losing badly to Humans and DnT but faring much better against Stoneblade. It takes that perfect curve to keep up with Humans (unless Uro draws all the Paths, and sometimes not even then) but unless Stoneblade has Stoneforge Mystic on turn 2, it has no pressure. This lets Uro durdle to its heart's content, which is how it wins. But again, it feels like it doesn't have to and could be better if it didn't lean into durdling so much.

An Improvement

I'm not the only one who thinks so. Last week, kanister won a challenge playing Copycat with Omnath, and others have followed. The metagame data is inconclusive, but I can say that last week was the best 4-Color Copycat (or even Jeskai Copycat) has had since I started watching MTGO data. It's always had a presence, but never climbed past Tier 3. Since kanister's win, it has starting stealing slots from the typical Uro lists. And I think that it should completely replace them.

Omnath Saheeli, PATXI (League 5-0)

Creatures

4 Felidar Guardian
3 Omnath, Locus of Creation
2 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

4 Saheeli Rai
4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Remand

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Flooded Strand
2 Forest
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
2 Prismatic Vista
1 Raugrin Triome
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Tranquil Thicket
1 Waterlogged Grove
3 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
1 Celestial Purge
2 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Dispel
2 Dovin's Veto
1 Fiery Justice
1 Jegantha, the Wellspring
2 Lightning Helix
1 Mystical Dispute
2 Veil of Summer

Jordan's already gone into detail about the deck. The main takeaway is that adding Omnath to 4-Color Copycat has been complimentary. Copycat was already running Wrenn and Uro, but really needed to build into something better than a Felidar Guardian (assuming it didn't just combo). The same value snowball, but with a way to acutally win the game outright? Sounds like a very sweet deal.

The Key

The biggest plus is the manabase. Yes, it is still mostly singletons. But this time there's some slack being cut. With 12 actual fetchlands in a 25-land deck, the fetch density is much higher than in the value Uro deck. Plus, with no colorless utility lands, the deck is far less likely to just splutter out due to unreachable color requirements. Copycat doesn't have to get a Triome first then hit another fetch or die every game! That alone is reason to switch.

Better, the deck can actually solve its in-game manabase woes. In Uro, the only hope for awkward mana was to Wrenn back fetchlands or get a lucky draw. Copycat has 8 ways to fix mana, between Oath of Nissa and Utopia Sprawl. So long as it has a green source, Copycat can actually get out of color screw on purpose, rather than just by randomly drawing the right card. This adds a robustness to the mana which means that in my (so far limited) testing there are far fewer free wins thanks to hopeless color requirements. Making me actually work for wins more often is a huge win in and of itself.

Twin's Shadow

Copycat has always been a very pale shadow of Splinter Twin in Modern. That whole instant-speed combo thing leaves imitators anemic, but Copycat has the additional problem of being more cost-intensive and less interactive than Twin was. This has always made it a fringe deck. In truth, a lot of the problems are still present. Copycat hasn't magically become a Tier 1 powerhouse just by adding Omnath. However, it is better now, and certainly feels more threatening to play against while being less frustrating than other 4-Color Uro/Omnath decks. There's some actual potential here, and I couldn't say that before Omnath. Keep an eye on Copycat.

Insider: Sifting for Specs

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I had a local player recently ask me for a relatively obscure Exodus rare for his Eldrazi themed Commander deck, and this got me wondering: what other old cards have fallen by the wayside but are potentially one new card away from being broken? I should also note that for this list, I will only focus on cards that are more than 20 years old and have never been reprinted. For those interested in the card he requested it was:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Null Brooch

Null Brooch is an Exodus rare with only a single printing. It has a very powerful repeatable ability but a potentially high cost. I say potentially because there are plenty of decks that make themselves hellbent quickly and thus the downside of Null Brooch is minimal and there are commanders that prefer to operate from the graveyard instead of the hand like Muldrotha, the Gravetide. This isn't the type of card I would go and buy up lots of copies, but it's definitely one that I'm happy to pick up in trades.

What it needs to break out:

  • If we were ever to get a Commander that wants to be hellbent specifically this seems like it would be an auto-include in that deck.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Invasion Plans

One downside I've seen with Commander as a format is that typically the most powerful decks tend to ignore the combat step, which is to say they don't win by attacking. The obvious exception is with cards like Craterhoof Behemoth or Insurrection, but that's typically a single alpha strike to kill everyone. I think this is one of the big reasons a card like Invasion Plans tends to fall by the wayside.

Creatures like Goblin Rabblemaster or Legion Warboss that make a sacrificial token every turn can allow an aggro deck to really abuse Invasion Plans. However, it's important to note that the enchantment affects everyone, so your opponents can also use creatures as sacrificial lambs. If all your creatures are unable to block, then the downside is far less.

What it needs to break out:

  • An aggro commander that makes a sacrificial token each combat.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Manabond

Unlike the previous two cards mentioned this one is already a $4+ card. However, some of that value is tied into it's occasional use in Legacy Lands builds. Similar to Null Brooch, Manabond has a pretty steep cost of again discarding your entire hand that isn't lands. This isn't always a bad thing. The more you play Commander, the more you realize the power of early mana ramp and how it tends to take over the game quickly.

Even more interesting is that we keep getting more and more lands that either act as spells, or in the case of some of the new Zendikar Rising MDFCs (Modal Double-Faced Cards), are spells on one side. If this continues, we will eventually reach a point where one can build a Lands commander deck, in which case Manabond would be extremely powerful.

What it needs to break out:

  • A commander that can quickly abuse cards in the graveyard.
  • Enough spell lands to create an entire commander deck.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Spirit Mirror

At first glance, this looks like a pretty unassuming card. A 4-mana enchantment that makes a 2/2 creature if there isn't already one of that type in play seems very mediocre. The key to this card is the second ability. 0 mana destroy target reflection at instant speed. This serves as a repeatable, free targeted creature kill on an enchantment.

What it needs to break out:

  • A card, ideally a commander, that allows you to assign the creature type "reflection" to all opponent's creatures. Which would allow you to lock out all creatures for the remainder of the game as long as Spirit Mirror is in play.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Scorched Earth

While true mass land destruction like Armageddon tends to be frowned upon in Commander, targeted land destruction can be necessary given how many powerful lands are available in the format. We don't have a lot of multiple-target land destruction spells, but this one could be very powerful in the right type of deck. Looking at EDHRec, it doesn't see much play, likely due to the fact that there isn't a solid Gruul or Temur commander that really synergizes with the card itself. Currently, it's mostly seeing play in some Rielle, the Everwise which is a nice interaction but not truly broken.

What it needs to break out:

  • A commander that is at least red and green that benefits from either lands in the graveyard or that benefits from destroying your opponent's lands.

Conclusion

This is the first of what I hope to be a series that highlights cards that are close to being really good, but just seem to be lacking something to really break them. While today's focus was on cards that were printed before 2000 (and in all honesty all picks actually are from 1998 or earlier), I don't want to limit myself to such hard dates all the time.

I will most likely keep the single printing requirement, as I've found those cards tend to be the ones that skyrocket when they do end up finding a good commander home. I also feel that this is the type of series that gets much better with community involvement, so if you have any suggestions for cards to include in future installments or disagree with ones I've picked, I'm always happy to get input from my readers! Feel free to reach out to me in the comment section below or on our QS Discord.

Deciphering Market Trends from Commons/Uncommons

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Often times, I like to focus on significant investments in Magic. Whether it be trading up for Power, speculating on Dual Lands, or shopping around for attractive deals on Reserved List cards, I tend to focus on higher-end and rares/mythic rares. Often time, those are the splashy cards with the biggest price change potential.

This week I want to change that. The reality is there are many low-cost commons and uncommons (not on the Reserved List) that are on the move for one reason or another. Rather than gloss over them and ignore them, I am going to bring some movers and shakers to the foreground for examination. What’s driving the movement? Are these cards set up to climb even further? That’s what I want to investigate in this week’s column. After all, for a common or uncommon to move, there must be a lot of buying taking place simply because there are many more copies out there.

Before diving in, I want to briefly touch upon my data source so you know where these ideas are coming from. I navigated to MTG Stocks’ Interests page and then clicked specifically on the “market” and “market foil” tabs. With this filtering approach, there are no garbage buyouts diluting the numbers. I’m looking at actual trends of sale prices (at least on TCGplayer) as indicators of price momentum here.

Without further ado, let’s see what’s on the move!

Non-Foil Movers

It’s immediately apparent the top movers from last week are mostly rares and mythic rares—again, these are lower in supply relatively speaking, so they have more room to run when there’s suddenly more demand. But of the top fifteen or so cards, I see two uncommons worth looking at.

First, there’s Cloak and Dagger, the Morningtide uncommon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cloak and Dagger

While a modest move of just over a buck isn’t making anyone money, the fact that this card is selling for 60% more this week than it was last week must indicate a market trend. One glimpse at the card’s effect, and it’s readily apparent what that trend is: Rogues.

Rogues are all the rage right now, thanks to the significant amount printed in Zendikar Rising. Included in this list is Anowon, the Ruin Thief. This legendary creature is drawing a great deal of market attention to all things rogues. In fact, he’s currently the second hottest Commander according to EDH REC (behind only Omnath, Locus of Creation! Even if we don’t trust EDH REC data, this trend is significant enough for me to take an interest.

This is exactly what I’m looking for when I examine common and uncommon market movers on MTG Stocks. For a common or uncommon to move and show up on the Interests page, many copies need to be selling (especially when looking at market pricing). When many copies of a card are selling, it implies there’s a greater trend. In this case, it was rogues! Other rogue speculation could take place as a result—keep an eye out for other “rogues matters” cards. If you’re looking to build a deck with rogues, I’d recommend prioritizing some of the older cards ASAP.

The second uncommon on the Interests page that cracked the top ten is Inkfathom Infiltrator.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inkfathom Infiltrator

This is not the most exciting card either. It’s a 2/1 creature for two mana and it can’t block and is unblockable. It kind of reminds me of the good old days with Shadow creatures. If you’re the only one at the table with a creature that has Shadow, it’s effectively like Inkfathom Infiltrator.

Anyways, what makes this card so interesting right now is its creature type: it’s a rogue! Now there are two uncommons on the move with a rogue theme. Clearly, Anowon is moving markets, and I suspect foils are especially tough to find and expensive right now. Speaking of foils…

Market Foil

To start, let’s take a look at the top market foils from last week on MTG Stocks:

Again, mostly rares and mythic rares top the list. But a few commons and uncommons stand out. Let’s see if there’s a trend here.

First on the list is Highland Weald, a card I’ve never heard of before. I took a quick look at the card on TCGplayer—I don’t think this is moving for any particular reason other than it’s useful for mana fixing in Commander and it’s from Coldsnap, a set with a tiny print run. In fact, I see some lightly played copies for just a couple bucks in stock now. Nothing to see here.

Next is Withstand Death.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Withstand Death

This one is a little more interesting. Green is particularly popular right now thanks to Wizards’ pushing the color’s power in recent sets. Many green commanders may be interested in effects like this one. It’s also playable in Pauper because it’s a common, though I’m honestly not sure if this is a factor. I’m not sure if this is indicative of a trend, but I will say it may be worth keeping an eye on foil green cards with similar effects (e.g. Vines of Vastwood, Ranger's Guile, Mortal's Resolve).

Next on the list is an Innistrad uncommon, Inquisitor's Flail.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inquisitor's Flail

There are only a handful of foil copies in stock in lightly played or near mint condition. So what’s so special about this equipment? If I had to make a guess, I’d say it lies in one key word appearing in the rules text: “double”. Players love effects that double anything (hello Doubling Season).

Throwing this on a beefy creature in Commander, especially one with trample, is sure to impact a game. The drawback can be navigated around, and at just two mana to cast and two to equip, this card can come down early and immediately change game states. A quick search on EDH REC and I see this card has also been showing up with Akiri, Fearless Voyager. I’m not sure if Inquisitor's Flail is in the top ten when it comes to equipment, but it’s clear some players are looking at it.

Oh, and it’s also showing up alongside Charix, the Raging Isle but I’m not sure if that trend will last. The blue creature is fun on the surface, but looks rather one-dimensional.

Next on the list is Fireshrieker, another card I’ve admittedly never heard of.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fireshrieker

Guess what? This is another uncommon equipment that plays alongside Akiri! This equipment does cost three instead of two, but it still just equips for two and gives a creature double strike—that’s a powerful equipment! Double strike can become especially potent when you’re assembling Voltron and putting multiple equipment on a single creature (have you ever considered how awkward that could be, flavor-wise?).

The takeaway here: powerful equipment from older sets, even uncommons, are in-demand right now! Just like with rogues, I’d start browsing for other equipment with powerful, unique effects. There could be some real opportunity here if Akiri remains popular for a while.

The last card I’ll mention is Core Prowler, an artifact creature from Mirrodin Besieged. I honestly can’t link this card to any new trend in Commander. But a quick search on TCGplayer and I see there are literally only four LP or NM copies in stock! I don’t think this card is going to start selling for twice as much overnight, but if you’re looking for a copy for some reason I wouldn’t wait too long. Infect has always been a casual favorite, so maybe supply on this foil just dried up gradually over time. I suspect other foil infect cards, with no reprints, may be equally sparse out there.

Wrapping It Up

Rares, mythic rares, Reserved List cards, Alpha…they’re all flashy and exciting. But oftentimes, movement in commons and uncommons can signify an unfolding trend in the market. Usually, I overlook these, but this week I wanted to examine them to see what I could uncover.

Sure enough, I identified two significant trends that I was previously unaware of. First, rogues are “in” and Anowon, the Ruin Thief is to blame! This is one of the hottest commanders to build around right now, and it will likely drive prices on other key rogue cards higher. While newer cards may not move as drastically due to larger, more recent prints, older rogue cards (e.g. from Lorwyn block) may have much thinner supply. These are definitely worth looking at more closely.

Second, Akiri, Fearless Voyager is a popular commander to build with coming out of Zendikar Rising. Wizards will always make new, exciting equipment (Maul of the Skyclaves for example) so Akiri will only improve over time. Again, newer equipment may have a ton of supply. But older equipment from many years ago—those, especially in foil, could slowly disappear from the market.

I know I learned a few new trends in Commander from doing this research, and I hope it was helpful to others as well! It turns out commons and uncommons (especially market pricing on MTG Stocks) may be key to parsing out what’s really moving due to demand versus speculator hype and price manipulation on TCGplayer!

QS Insider Cast: Standard Specs, Walking Dead, and More!

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Welcome back to the QS Insider Podcast! Chris O'Berry and Joe Davidson discuss new Standard specs, more Walking Dead Secret Lair stuff, and more! This cast was originally broadcasted live to Insiders in the QS Insider Discord, October 11th, 2020.

Show Notes

  • Happy Birthday Cardi B
  • New Standard - Gemrazer, Gruul Adventures, Upcoming Banning
  • More The Walking Dead - Lucille, Rick in Legacy, The CRC Decision
  • Twitter Outrage and Financial Implications
  • Zendikar Rising in Eternal Formats
  • Some Quick PokĂ©mon Hype Talk

Wanna Chat? Find us in the QS Discord or on Social Media

Chroberry - Twitter / Instagram / Twitch

Joe - Twitch / YouTube / Twitter

October ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 1: New Horizons

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Halfway through the month, October seems to be following in September's footsteps, giving us new decks from the new cards and interesting takes on existing archetypes. Today, we'll look at developments in ramp, midrange, fish, and combo. Let's get to it!

Come Om, Come All

Omnath, Locus of Creation is more than just a Standard all-star (and forced-retiree). The creature has been tearing up both Pioneer and Modern in more ways than one. Last week, we looked at Omnath Ramp, the default shell for the Elemental; this week, we'll check out its recent applications with combo and other value elements alike.

But first, who remembers this deck?

Jeskai Saheeli, WTNOF (5-0)

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Felidar Guardian

Planeswalkers

3 Narset, Parter of Veils
4 Saheeli Rai
3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
4 Path to Exile
4 Peek
4 Remand
1 Valakut Awakening

Enchantments

3 Spreading Seas

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Island
1 Plains
1 Raugrin Triome
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Abrade
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Celestial Purge
2 Dovin's Veto
2 Monastery Mentor
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Rest in Peace
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Timely Reinforcements

Oh yes, that's a finish from Copy-Cat in 2020! But there's more, Copy-Cat fans... what if I told you this deck was due for a makeover?

Omnath Saheeli, PATXI (5-0)

Creatures

4 Felidar Guardian
3 Omnath, Locus of Creation
2 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

4 Saheeli Rai
4 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Remand

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Flooded Strand
2 Forest
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
2 Prismatic Vista
1 Raugrin Triome
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Tranquil Thicket
1 Waterlogged Grove
3 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Aether Gust
1 Celestial Purge
2 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Dispel
2 Dovin's Veto
1 Fiery Justice
1 Jegantha, the Wellspring
2 Lightning Helix
1 Mystical Dispute
2 Veil of Summer

Omnath Saheeli is a relative newcomer to the format, but it's already taking it by storm. Besides the recent list featured above, the deck has placed in multiple preliminaries and plenty of 5-0 dumps. In light of all these Four-Color Saheeli results, the previously teased Copy-Cat list reveals itself to be something of an anomaly, perhaps just an old-timer returning to an old standby after seeing the combo get some love in the format.

Saheeli Omnath's calling card? Topping off the masterfully grindy Omnath-Uro shell with the Copy-Cat combination, yielding a way-too-hot-for-Standard Modern abomination. To make room for Saheeli, the deck abandons much of its land-ramping magic, and adds interaction in the form of... other planeswalkers.

Remand, once one of Modern's beloved counterspells but now a scourge of trade binders everywhere, even makes a rare appearance here as a way to interact and ramp at the same time: if players manage to sap an opponent's whole turn, perhaps by say, countering their own Omnath, they get to untap, draw, and make a brand new land drop. Remand targeting an escaped Uro is also big game, making the card a trump in the mirror akin to Veil of Summer against targeted discard decks. And it's great against ritual strategies like Charbelcher, too!

When it comes to mashing engines together, though, the following Omnath list really takes the cake.

Yorion Niv-Mizzet Omnath, GOBERN (5-0)

Creatures

3 Niv-Mizzet Reborn
2 Bloodbraid Elf
1 Keranos, God of Storms
4 Omnath, Locus of Creation
1 Renegade Rallier
1 Snapcaster Mage
3 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

3 Teferi, Time Raveler
4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Abundant Growth
4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

3 Abrupt Decay
1 Assassin's Trophy
4 Kaya's Guile
1 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

4 Bring to Light
1 Dreadbore
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Supreme Verdict

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Godless Shrine
1 Indatha Triome
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Prismatic Vista
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
3 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Boil
4 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Crumble to Dust
2 Dovin's Veto
3 Fatal Push
1 Unmoored Ego
2 Veil of Summer
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

No clever deck titles here -- Yorion Niv-Mizzet Omnath is exactly as you'd expect, with Bloodbraids implied and Bring to Lights... admittedly, serious contenders for being in the name. Otherwise, this deck is pretty straightforward: slam a high-impact five-mana spell and drown opponents in value.

Omnath picks up where Niv can leave off, functioning as a pseudo-five-drop with tons of immediate impact. Players can just cast it, play a fetch, and crack it at their leisure to lock in two landfall triggers. And Bring to Light can search either the Dragon or the Elemental, situation depending, to bury opponents properly.

The sideboard gets to tap into a mini-toolbox featuring Boil (Uro decks), Crumble (Tron), Ego (combo, not least the Charbelcher decks), all-purpose interaction like Veil, Push, and newcomer Cleansing Wildfire, and of course, Yorion, Sky Nomad. Should opponents find ways to stick enough spokes in this deck's wheels, Yorion lurks in the sideboard waiting to bail it out. And all for a paltry 3 mana!

Hey There, Little Guy

Synergy-based creature aggro had a big month, and I don't just mean Prowess.

Aspirant Ballista, NHA37 (10th, Challenge #12216047)

Creatures

4 Luminarch Aspirant
4 Auriok Champion
4 Giver of Runes
1 Hangarback Walker
4 Heliod, Sun-Crowned
2 Ranger of Eos
4 Ranger-Captain of Eos
4 Skyclave Apparition
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Walking Ballista

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
4 Field of Ruin
1 Horizon Canopy
12 Plains
1 Silent Clearing
1 Sunbaked Canyon

Sideboard

1 Aven Mindcensor
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Damping Sphere
1 Dawn of Hope
1 Giant Killer
3 Path to Exile
2 Rest in Peace
2 Wheel of Sun and Moon
1 Worship

David wrote a deep-dive exposé on Death and Taxes earlier this week; that deck's enjoying unprecedented success thanks to Skyclave Apparition. Other decks wielding the Spirit are also cropping up, including this curious contraption: Aspirant Ballista.

The deck employs Luminarch Aspirant and Heliod, the Sun-Crowned pump the constructs up to gun down creatures and flood the battlefield with tokens. Ranger-Captain of Eos and Ranger of Eos both can tutor up whichever contruct is needed in a given moment, as well as protection in Giver of Runes.

Eldrazi Company, SEASONOFMISTS (5-0)

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Displacer
4 Skyclave Apparition
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Charming Prince
3 Flickerwisp
4 Giver of Runes
4 Tidehollow Sculler
3 Wasteland Strangler

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Collected Company

Lands

2 Brushland
2 Caves of Koilos
1 Concealed Courtyard
4 Eldrazi Temple
1 Forest
2 Horizon Canopy
2 Plains
4 Razorverge Thicket
2 Silent Clearing
1 Swamp
1 Wastes

Sideboard

2 Archon of Emeria
3 Auriok Champion
2 Damping Sphere
2 Gaddock Teeg
1 Gaea's Blessing
2 Qasali Pridemage
3 Relic of Progenitus

Eldrazi Company also packs Skyclave Apparition, indeed a great creature to cheat out with Collected Company. And apparently, so are Displacer and Strangler. No Thought-Knots here, though: the 4 Temples are mostly included to support Displacer's ability, which creates oodles of value with many creatures own but is quite impressive when blinking the Apparition. Apparition also provides a steady stream of targets for Strangler... both ways!

Rules Were Made...

Banned Standard creature? Yep, dutifully slotted into my Modern deck. X creatures minimum alongside Collected Company? Check; I ain't getting got by my own spell. But Magic isn't just for rule-followers, which is why Garfield invented combo. And modern's no stranger to combo, which is why this month brings new developments in the macro-archetype!

Oops! All Spells, GYYBY297 (3-2, Preliminary #12216063)

Creatures

4 Balustrade Spy
2 Narcomoeba
1 Phantasmagorian
1 Salvage Titan
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Undercity Informer
4 Vengevine

Artifacts

4 Pentad Prism
3 Sword of the Meek
4 Talisman of Resilience

Enchantments

4 Leyline of Sanctity

Instants

1 Nexus of Fate

Sorceries

4 Agadeem's Awakening
4 Creeping Chill
3 Emeria's Call
4 Pelakka Predation
3 Sea Gate Restoration
2 Shatterskull Smashing
4 Turntimber Symbiosis

Sideboard

4 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Intervention Pact
1 Mountain
4 Nature's Claim
2 Pact of Negation
3 Thoughtseize

Oops! All Spells is the Goblin Charbelcher deck, but in reverse. That is, its Plan B of Ballustrade Spy and Undercity Informer has been made the main attraction. Charbelcher still sits patiently in the sideboard for the right matchup. With this combo, the deck mills itself until the battlefield is flooded with dredge creatures and multiple Creeping Chills have been fired off, then attacks for victory; Nexus of Fate is here to prevent a complete deckout, unlike the Legacy version of the deck, which wants to empty its library.

Eschewing Belcher for game 1 makes the "landless" deck less cold to Karn, the Great Creator, a mainstay in Eldrazi Tron decks. Belcher can come in when opponents inevitable reach for graveyard hate, as the artifact totally ignores that type of interaction. As such, Oops! All Spells is a bit more resilient than Belcher over the course of a match, while the latter may be more consistent.

Enduring Ideal, RINKO (28th, Challenge #12216053)

Sorceries

4 Enduring Ideal

Instants

4 Silence

Artifacts

4 Lotus Bloom

Enchantments

1 Blood Moon
1 Cast Out
1 Dovescape
2 Form of the Dragon
1 Gideon's Intervention
2 Greater Auramancy
4 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Nine Lives
4 On Thin Ice
2 Phyrexian Unlife
4 Solemnity

Lands

1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
4 Needleverge Pathway
4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
4 Sacred Foundry
9 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Blood Moon
1 Gideon's Intervention
3 Boil
3 Containment Priest
2 Hushbringer
1 Pithing Needle
1 Torpor Orb
2 Wheel of Sun and Moon

Enduring Ideal is an age-old Modern deck that gets just a little bit better with every few sets or so. New haymaker enchantments are bound to be printed here and there, and the same can be said of effective white disruption. New faces this time around include On Thin Ice, a high-reward removal spell; Nine Lives, time-buyer extraordinaire; and Needleverge Pathway, newest of all.

Nine Lives is a great fit for this deck, since opponents are likely to be locked out before its self-exiling trigger can be reached through conventional means. In the meantime, though, it lets pilots find their other answers to whatever opponents are pressuring them with.

Needleverge finds its stride in a deck like this one, that doesn't fetch but loves painless, flexible lands to smooth out its mana. Thanks to the new land, Ideal has little trouble stretching to splash red, which affords it access to heavy-duty land hate in Blood Moon and Boil.

Cold, Not Cool

While the temperature are beginning to drop in some of our homes, Modern is showing no signs of cooling off, especially not with Omnath roasting everything in sight. Will the Elemental take over yet another format? Tune in at the month's close to find out!

Reaper’s Auditor: Investigating Death and Taxes

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I love it when a deck finally comes together. When all the faith is finally rewarded and the years of suffering and disappointment finally pay off. Mostly because it typically happens to decks that move from mediocre to barely viable. Think of Belcher, Ad Nauseam, the good stuff piles, or Ponza; decks that have been around, but could never find their place... until they could. It's happened to a deck that's near and dear to me, so that's what I'll be covering today.

A History of Taxes

I have been playing and working on Death and Taxes (hereafter: DnT) for years. It's perpetually been a deck that's frustratingly almost there, but never really arrives. The only significant result was back in 2017 at GP Las Vegas. It was perfectly positioned to take apart the Death's Shadow field thanks to their weakness to Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and running the right protection creatures. Since then, there's been the odd blip, but it never really did anything.

The problem, as I and every player that has tinkered with it over the years discovered, is that DnT could be tuned to beat anything, but never everything. It was an exceptionally tunable deck, but never had the raw power needed to dominate a field. All the combo decks? Lock them with Thalia, Eidolon of Rhetoric, and Spirit of the Labyrinth. Jund everywhere? Blade Splicer, Thraben Inspector, Leyline of Sanctity, and Restoration Angel. Tons of Burn? Auriok Champion, Kitchen Finks, Leyline, and Kabira Crossroads. You'd lose to anything else, but if you read the field right, DnT was rewarding.

The Turning Point

I won plenty of local events over the years thanks to correctly anticipating metagames and preparing accordingly. However, whenever I took DnT to wider metas, it just couldn't compete. The power and universality wasn't there. And Humans did a lot of the same things but with a faster clock, so why bother with the pet project? Until 2020, of course. DnT has exploded over the past month thanks to Zendikar Rising. So today I'll be looking at these finally successful builds and breaking down the card choices.

A New World

Surprisingly, there's very little variation in DnT's maindeck. As I'm going through the data for October, there's been a lot of DnT, and they're all built on the model set by Parrit.

Death and Taxes, Parrit (10/4 Challenge, 1st Place)

Creatures

4 Giver of Runes
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Flickerwisp
4 Skyclave Apparition
2 Archon of Emeria

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial
1 Maul of the Skyclaves
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Batterskull

Instants

4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Ghost Quarter
2 Field of Ruin
2 Shefet Dunes
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Silent Clearing
1 Sunbaked Canyon
11 Plains

Sideboard

3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Rest in Peace
2 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Leonin Relic-Warder
3 Mirran Crusader
3 Aven Mindcensor

This is Parrit's deck from their best result so far, but honestly, I could have picked any event. Parrit's maindeck hasn't noticeably changed since Rising released online. This player is also personally responsible for close to half of DnT's results so far, so I had choices, but it makes the most sense to go with the best result.

Around 90% of all DnT decks follow Parrit's numbers: Mono-white, 26 creatures, 4 Path, 4 Vial, 3 equipment, 23 lands. The specific choices deviate a bit, and I'll call attention to them, but this formula seems to have been accepted as "correct" for mono-white. Even the deviants and outliers don't stray too far, usually depending on whether or not they're running the Stoneforge package. There have been a few Boros versions and the odd Eldrazi and Taxes, but straight Mono-White DnT is by far and away the most popular. Even excluding Parrit. And digging in, it's not hard to see why.

The Taxes

The key to the deck are the eight disruptive creatures, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Leonin Arbiter. I might have seen one list that didn't run full sets of each. Without these speedbumps, DnT cannot keep up with the rest of Modern. Thalia is better than Arbiter in the sense that noncreature spells see more play, and the tax is more consistently disruptive than soft search prevention, but that's balanced by Lava Dart. Arbiter is crippling against unprepared decks and makes Ghost Quarter into Strip Mine while Path to Exile becomes the best removal spell ever.

Both creatures form the heart of the deck. The trick is knowing which one is more relevant. As mentioned above, DnT is very much a deck that requires and rewards format knowledge. Given a choice, it is highly contextual which one to play first: not just the opponent's deck must be considered, but also how your own turns will play out. Playing Arbiter may or may not cripple the opponent's mana development, but it will make it harder to cast Stoneforge for several turns. Thalia may stunt the opponent's gameplan, but will also tax Path. Planning ahead and knowing what's most important in the matchup is key.

Stoneforge Package

Stoneforge Mystic is the card advantage engine in the deck. In the past, it wasn't clear that she was better than the traditional Blade Splicer advantage engine, but every list I've seen so far has been on Stoneforge, so that's no longer the case. Despite reservations, Stoneforge has been a fine addition to the format. White needed the power boost, and it turns out that a turn three Batterskull is still very good. Given the competition after she was initially unbanned, it's taken a while and some metagame changes to break out, and a new printing certainly helped.

Maul of the Skyclaves

I missed Maul in my set review. It was just a big stick, and there are plenty of those already. The evasion was nice, but didn't seem better than the protection of a Sword. And the equip cost is prohibitive. What I missed was that the equip cost is mostly blank text. Equipping on entry is huge by itself, but it also synergizes with Flickerwisp. Thus, it has functions as a combat trick, stalemate breaker, and a normal equipment. A very strong pickup.

Sword of Fire and Ice

Initially the premier choice for Modern was Sword of Feast and Famine. Black and green were the biggest colors at the end of last year, so the Sword that defends against them was the right choice. Discard is also quite good. Times have changed, and now blue and red creatures are everywhere. Extra damage and cards are also always helpful.

Advantage Creatures

The bulk of the creature slots are the advantage creatures, those cards that fulfill some useful niche to support the two-drops and power the deck. I hope I don't have to note why Flickerwisp is good in a deck with Aether Vial by now; it just does everything, with myriad applications on both offense and defense. The other two could use some additional explanation.

Giver of Runes

Giver has always suffered from not being Mother of Runes. Gaining a point of toughness and the ability to protect from colorless cards is solid, but not being able to protect herself really let the side down. In a world where Jund was a big player, it was too easy for Step-Mom of Runes to die uselessly. In Legacy, Bolting an untapped, active Mom ensures a two-for-one since she'll protect herself from the first Bolt. In Modern, it's no risk to Bolt Step-Mom, then Bolt whatever she tries to protect. I kept running Thraben Inspector over Giver as a result.

However, the format, and more importantly DnT, has changed. Protecting key creatures is far more important and far easier thanks to Jund and similar removal-dense decks falling away to make room for Prowess and counter-heavy Uro decks. Every DnT deck I've seen is running a full set, and I can't argue the point.

Skyclave Apparition

For all the talk I could have on format vulnerabilities or metagame positioning, Apparition is ultimately the real reason that DnT is a thing these days. See also everything I said in my preview article. And then amplify it by a factor, because Apparition is far better than expected. Modern seems to be uniquely vulnerable to Apparition thanks to an over-reliance on Uro and cheap planeswalkers. Absolutely a four-of right now.

The Utility Slot

The final two creature slots are the utility slots. There's no consensus on what goes here, and it's entirely about what holes the pilot thinks need filling. The three most popular options I've seen (in order) are Archon of Emeria, Restoration Angel, and Aven Mindcensor. There are advantages to each, and the "right" pick is a matter of personal taste and expected metagame.

Archon of Emeria

Again, take everything from my preview article and copy-paste it here. The current metagame is very favorable to land and spell disruption of this nature. The main problem is that Bolt appears to be on a general uptick thanks to Omnath, Locus of Creation. Thus, it's not quite as effective today as a few weeks ago. Also, while Archon is very effective against Ad Nauseam and Belcher combo, the Venegevine-based Oops All Spells has been getting a lot more attention, and it plays around Rule of Law effectively.

Restoration Angel

Angel is the old standby, and is at her best in a grindy metagame. Blanking even a single removal spell can be backbreaking against Jund or control. Being a 3/4 is also frequently relevant, and when blocking is essential, Resto will always be my pick. Current builds are not the best place for her, as there's no special way to get any value except blinking Apparition. Blocking isn't great right now given Prowess, and true attrition is down. Jund is Tier 2 and Omnath is about drawing lots of cards. The lower removal counts in the Omnath decks do make a single blink far more valuable, but on the whole I think Resto isn't the call, at least this month.

Aven Mindcensor

I have a strained relationship with this card. On the one hand, it is the best hard-counter for search effects in white and phenomenal against Primeval Titan, Scapeshift, and Bring to Light. On the other, Mindcensor has a long history of making promises to me it couldn't keep, dating back to failing to prevent Dragonstorm from going off five times at 2007 Regionals. Mindcensor can't prevent the opponent just having it, and counting on it does just lead to heartbreak. I think that having a few in the 75 is a good idea given how the meta is moving. However, the body is fragile enough and effect narrow enough I'd keep Mindcensor in the sideboard.

The Lands

Every mono-white DnT list I've seen is running 23 lands. A few Boros lists run 21-22 because they're swapping a Field of Ruin or two for Cleansing Wildfire, but they're outliers. The overall breakdown has also very consistently been 11 Plains, 12 utility lands. The utility lands are typically distributed as 4 Horizon lands, 4 Ghost Quarter, 4 Field of Ruin. Again, as of writing, this specific distribution is at least 90% of the lists I've processed, so I'd call it the default. The main deviations are whether to run Horizon Canopy, Silent Clearing, or Sunbaked Canyon, and it really doesn't matter.

As a result, Parrit's list is something of an anomaly, despite being my Ur-example. They've opted to replace 2 Fields with Shefet Dunes and run Eiganjo Castle in place of a Horizon land. I'm not sure why Parrit runs one of every Horizon land; it offers no particular advantage, but there's no disadvantage, either. Maybe it's an availability thing? Or a weird flex? In any case, the unique cards deserve a deeper dive:

Eiganjo Castle

Personally, I can't stand this card. It's not bad, and I don't begrudge anyone running it, but I've never had good results with it. I imagine Parrit is running it to have another non-painful white source with upside, because actually protecting Thalia in Modern is a bit of a pipe dream. Eiganjo does nothing against Lightning Bolt, rarely saves Thalia in combat, and requires two mana to stop a Lava Dart. It's a pale shadow of Karakas and I wouldn't bother.

Shefet Dunes

Dunes is more interesting. It's another white source, and DnT is very hungry for white sources, but it's a painful one. Between the Horizon lands and Dunes, DnT will do 2-5 points of damage to itself in many games. In a race situation, this can be the difference between victory and defeat. Dunes being a temporary Anthem is meant to close out a game. Thus, the damage advantage it gives is often balanced by the damage it gives away. In a field of UW Control, I'd absolutely run Dunes. With Prowess as a top deck, I'd shy away.

In the Sideboard

The beauty of DnT has always been the sideboard flexibility. White has always had the best hate cards and the widest range of sideboard options, so DnT could always tune to answer whatever decks were popular. As a result, the sideboard is very much a matter of personal taste and the current metagame. That said, there are a few cards in Parrit's list that need discussion:

Burrenton Forge-Tender

Forge-Tender is a very good card in a format where specific red spells need to be answered and/or blocked and/or Anger of the Gods is everywhere. This is pretty accurate at the moment. The issue is that Auriok Champion is generally better in more matchups, especially the Scourge of the Skyclaves decks that have started spiking up. Also, given Champion's popularity, a lot of decks are giving up on Anger in favor of Kozilek's Return. Therefore, I'd run Champion as my anti-red card and pack Selfless Spirit for sweepers.

Phyrexian Revoker

Revoker is surprisingly relevant right now. With Belcher decks actually being a thing, DnT needs something to preempt the kill. Revoker is also strong against Tron, creature combo, and any planeswalker Apparition can't hit. Don't cut these, no matter how unimpressive they seem.

Leonin Relic-Warder

On the other hand, absolutely do not play this card. I know the siren call of synergy with Flickerwisp and being a creature in a creature deck. Don't be fooled. Playing Relic-Warder is asking to get hard-locked.

If the only deck that needed Relic-Warder as an answer was Affinity, that would be ok. Exiling a counter-laden creature is very good. However, the main decks with artifacts run Karn, the Great Creator. This lets them wish for Torpor Orb, and most do run a copy. Orb means all the ETB creatures are effectively textless, which means no answers to the Ensnaring Bridge follow-up. For that reason, DnT is better off with Disenchant or Revoke Existence.

Certainties in Life

For those new to the archetype, the advice I'd give is be patient. DnT is not a typical Modern creature deck. It's slower, grindier, and far harder to play than it appears. It takes a lot of format knowledge to be good, and there's no small amount of luck in having everything line up perfectly. If you put in the time, you'll be rewarded. But make sure to get in those reps, because the right line can often be surprising.

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