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Video Series with Ryland: Jund Elves

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Tribal decks in Modern have seen their fair share of popularity for the past couple years. Eldrazi, and more recently Humans, have been roaming free—by far the most popular tribes. Elves is an archetype that has been around for quite a while, but has never been able to reach the same popularity. After the printing of Collected Company, people became a lot more interested in the archetype, but consistent and frequent results never came.

Enter the Devoted Druid combo. People became enthralled with it when Vizier of Remedies was printed, and they were putting it in everything, including Elves. This gave the deck some additional attention, and drew more players to the archetype. It put up results here and there, but still never became a powerhouse of the format. Devoted Druid became a mainstay, but more frequently seen via a dedicated Company deck, Counters Company.

More recently, Modern has been shaken up in a way that you are most definitely aware of: the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Interestingly enough, most people did not think of Elves first when deciding where to play Bloodbraid despite uh, you know... it being an Elf. Elves is not usually a red deck; generally you see a light white splash, and maybe a light black splash. In addition, when people think Bloodbraid, they think of decks like Jund. Some instead may think of aggressive Naya-style decks. Most decks in that realm have turned to Company in the past as Elves has done.

This past weekend Andrew Richardson asked, 'Why not both?' as he piloted a Jund Elves deck to a 25th Place finish at GP Phoenix. I had seen other content creators trying similar decks after the unbanning, but this is the first notable result I had seen, so it regained my attention. The list has the small black splash that others have used in the past for both Shaman of the Pack and some sideboard action. Additionally 4 Bloodbraid were present, alongside 2 Lead the Stampede—and not a Chord of Calling to be found.

If you were hellbent on playing Elves in the past few weeks, this was the way to do it. The format has been flooded with midrange and control decks since the unbannings—decks interested largely in killing everything the Elves player plays. With the package of 2 Lead, 4 Bloodbraid, and 4 Company, this list is really well set up to try and slog through these matchups—much better suited than its Vizier Counterpart. That said, if you find yourself wanting to play Elves and expecting a linear meta, this is not the way to go. On average it's going to be a bit slower without the Vizier combo, and that can hurt you in the combo matches where all you need is speed. This list can still achieve turn-three kills, but they will occur far less frequently.

My results have been nothing special with the deck so far, but my sample size is pretty small. Only a pair of leagues before this one, both ending in 3-2s. I think the archetype has legs, but I certainly don't think it will become a Modern powerhouse. Humans and Eldrazi will remain far more popular without some major changes. That said, at this point in time Elves may be more popular than Merfolk, so at least Ezuri, Renegade Leader and crew can pat themselves on the back for that one.

I hope you enjoy the matches and, as usual, I'm interested to hear what kind of content you'd like to see moving forward, so I can continue to evolve and improve my videos. Please let me know your thoughts, and any improvements you would like to see concerning formatting, presentation, or whatever else strikes your fancy. If you'd like to see similar content, check out my Twitch channel for some more live Modern!

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL261kJ_cAQC-G-VCPJEHoB5MZLTj5fMp-]

Elves, by Andrew Richardson (25th Place, GP Phoenix)

Creatures

4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Dwynen's Elite
1 Elves of Deep Shadow
4 Elvish Archdruid
4 Elvish Mystic
1 Elvish Visionary
3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
4 Heritage Druid
4 Llanowar Elves
3 Nettle Sentinel
4 Shaman of the Pack

Instants

4 Collected Company

Sorceries

2 Lead the Stampede

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
3 Forest
4 Gilt-Leaf Palace
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Pendelhaven
1 Stomping Ground
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Abrupt Decay
1 Elvish Champion
1 Essence Warden
1 Fracturing Gust
2 Lead the Stampede
2 Reclamation Sage
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Shapers' Sanctuary
2 Thoughtseize

Daily Stock Watch – Pact of Negation

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Prices have started crashing for cards from Masters 25 and I am loving it. I have already cracked at least four cases (16 boxes) of the set and I must say that there's an awful lot of variance in what you could be getting when you open them pack by pack, rather than doing it box by box. There's a world of difference in opening a Jace, the Mind Sculptor and cracking one that has Brion Stoutarm inside. You would understand the pains of getting these bulk rares when you get your packs for retail prices, so I'd like to help you out for a bit on what should be best to do to cut your losses from booster-tripping. This is something that I will talk about in a future article so if opening packs tickles your fancy, it might be something that you'd like to check out.

In today's segment, I'm going to talk about one of the cards that is suffering heavily from the expected price crash due to its A25 reprint. I think that this card is very good across all formats that it's legal to be used, and should rebound nicely in the future. It just reached its lowest price since being reprinted at $12.99 today, and I wouldn't be surprised if its goes lower in the coming weeks while supplies are its peak.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of Negation

Pact of Negation is a card that could win you games on the moment that you cast it. It has been well-documented as a vital piece of combo decks that would love its Force of Will-level prowess that prevents your opponents from having an answer to what you're doing. It is not really a shoo-in when you're watching Legacy decks in action (as there are a plethora of other counter magic that's available in that format which doesn't have the drawback of Pact of Negation) but it is almost always included in Modern juggernauts such as Ad Nauseam and Amulet Combo.

Ad Nauseam

Creatures

1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Instants and Sorceries

4 Ad Nauseam
4 Angel's Grace
1 Lightning Storm
3 Pact of Negation
4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand
3 Spoils of the Vault

Other Spells

4 Lotus Bloom
4 Pentad Prism
4 Phyrexian Unlife

Lands

2 City of Brass
3 Darkslick Shores
1 Dreadship Reef
3 Gemstone Mine
2 Plains
3 Seachrome Coast
4 Temple of Deceit
2 Temple of Enlightenment

Sideboard

1 Blazing Archon
1 Echoing Truth
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
3 Gifts Ungiven
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Pact of Negation
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Thoughtseize
1 Unburial Rites

You know you're in trouble when the combo player just goes off with Ad Nauseam and they have other cards in their hands. That somehow means that they already have a Pact of Negation (or two) in tow to stop you from killing their Laboratory Maniac or countering their Angel's Grace. Force of Will is a $80 card for a reason and if we look at it on a power-level perspective, Pact of Negation shouldn't be far behind financially. The only thing stopping it from being too broken is its game-ending drawback but we all know this works. Don't be deceived by this weakness because this card is for real.

A Blue Mage Loves These Cards

I've always been a blue mage at heart so I know how annoying these spells could get when you run into them. Pact of Negation should easily break your list of top three best counter magic all-time if you're a blue player, in my opinion. I wouldn't mind picking up copies of the card in the near future once it hits my projection of $10 as its lowest point, so I would recommend that you do the same if you're into long term speculation.

At the moment, you could find lots of copies of Pact of Negation from online stores such as StarCityGames, Card Kingdom, ChannelFireball and TCGPlayer for as low as $12.99, and a high of $14.99 for the A25 version. Future Sight copies have been able to preserve its value for a little bit but should suffer just like every other card in the set for the foreseeable future. I would love to get the A25 copies as soon as they hit $10 and just stash them somewhere for a while. There's no doubt in my mind that it will be a good decision in a year or so. Just move them around accordingly if you're into short term speculations.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as I preview new cards that should be on the go, or good enough for speculation purposes. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: The Dominaria Leaks and the Impact on Your LGS Community

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Hello, Magic players, and welcome back!

This week, the Magic universe’s information hubs are in a state of emergency.  The vast majority, or perhaps entirety, of the Dominaria set was leaked!  The vast amount of analysis required to unpack an entire set’s revealing at once is mind boggling.  My mission today is to look at the ebb and flow of prices when new cards are spoiled, and how those cards affect local area communities.

For those who were previously unaware, a brief recap: the Masters 25 set has been fully spoiled, and will be available in stores quite soon.  As such, Wizards of the Coast releases their notes for rules within the set that require clarification, and any potential rules changes to the game itself.  This time, instead of releasing the Masters 25 final document, the document for Dominaria was released instead – including the majority of the cards in the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

After this leak, Wizards of the Coast confirmed that the document was real, and made it available on their website as well. Nearly instantaneously, several cards shot up in price that were not named among the spoiled cards, some cards suddenly became targets based on their unlikeliness of a reprint, and cards within the set made the thought of a future set reprint possible.

Dominaria – All-Encompassing History

For many years after Magic was released, Dominaria was where the Magic storyline was centered.  Several years of history, card printings, tribes, and every other piece of the foundation in which Magic was built.  It is incredibly difficult to make fans of such a great deal of history satisfied with simply one set, but there are several cards that return to the roots of Magic that are in Dominaria.

Essentially, any set before Eighth Edition is fair game.  If there is a card that only has one or two printings and is nowhere to be found in Dominaria, we are in a time where those cards might increase quickly in value.  Commander cards are the highest potential targets, since they belong to a unique player base that brings use to cards that would never otherwise see competitive play.  Casual players are another group that could easily cause price spikes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shard Phoenix

Commander is the catalyst for interesting card reprints that are mostly exclusive to Dominaria.  The legendary card type is a tricky one to reprint in Standard, especially if the card is lore-centric.  This is specifically why several legendary cards get reprinted in subsets, such as From The Vault or Masters sets.  A good example of a card that increased in price from Commander interest despite having no eternal format usage is Tsabo Tavoc, which has a $27 (!) foil price tag despite being only a dollar for the non-foil.  There are other cards, such as Jeska, Warrior Adept and Thriss, Nantuko Primus that only have one printing and could follow in these footsteps.

Spoilers In The LGS

Spoiler season is often the talk of the town for Magic communities.  A gift every day for the community in the form of new card information, and created hype for new potential usage of future cards, is a fast way to rile up the entire scene.

The heavy downside is the first-come, first-serve disparity that gets created by brewing with cards that are already readily available.  If a card is spoiled, and it works incredibly well with a card that was printed in a previous set, then multiple people trying to brew the same deck will be competing for whatever is in stock at their local LGS.  Many players rely on “store credit” to finance decks, especially for the Standard format, and will not always spring for purchases online with actual cash.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Siege Rhino

I remember fondly the week that Khans of Tarkir began its spoilers.  Fetchlands generated a lot of hype, but another story from that set was all of the powerful Abzan cards with the focus on wedges.  Siege Rhino, Wingmate Roc and Anafenza, the Foremost were at the top end of Khans of Tarkir spoilers for the deck, and helped round out an Abzan Aggro deck that would see play for much of the coming twelve months.  Throw in Abzan Charm and the deck practically built itself as a strong contender on week one of the new Standard.

The problem?  Other cards in Standard, such as Fleecemane Lion and Soldier of the Pantheon, were obvious shoe-ins for varying types of Abzan Aggro.  As a result, the spoilers hit and Fleecemane Lion in particular was sold out at every card store in a 20-mile radius.  A good number of players made some rough concessions to the slot for a few weeks until they could get their hands on the required copies.

This card movement, from a business perspective, is actually very good for the LGS.  Spoilers guarantee that some cards will sell quickly, allowing for some solid product turnover and the ability to restock on more inventory.  Additional sales, of course, are helpful across the board.  These scenarios also allow the LGS to promote cards that have the ability to be effective as a second choice.  Doom Blade is sold out?  Here’s a Go for the Throat.  Missing some copies of Stormbreath Dragon?  Have you read this card called Thundermaw Hellkite?  Across several time periods, the generated buzz from spoilers has created both A-grade and B-grade purchases from every various LGS across the world.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thundermaw Hellkite

Props to Wizards of the Coast

Dominaria was mistakenly spoiled weeks early.  An error of that magnitude can be catastrophic for a company.  Wizards of the Coast gets website hits, has cards revealed by different research and development employees and some well-connected streamers, and overall finds ways to profit off of spoiler season.

Can you imagine if Hearthstone had an entire set spoiled at once?  The fallout would be tremendous.

Wizards of the Coast could have easily gone the silent route.  They could have pretended that this spoiler never happened, players could have speculated that there was nothing of merit, and in a few weeks, we would be back to business as usual.  However, Wizards of the Coast chose to acknowledge the mistake, confirm that the spoilers were real cards, and let the community handle the information overload with accurate information.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dominaria's Judgment

Magic is about to have its 25th anniversary set.  Wizards of the Coast has been making strong overall decisions for a quarter-century now, and has managed to take a Dungeons & Dragons side-game concept and turn it into an international eSport with tens of millions of players and followers.  No matter what your opinions of the company, you would have to agree that they made some pretty solid calls at many points in their history.

Llanowar Elves!

As I wrap up for this week, I have to absolutely mention the reprint of Llanowar Elves and the possible inference on the Standard market.  Cards such as Jadelight Ranger and Deathgorge Scavenger will soon have ways to be cast on turn two.  Red-Green Midrange is already an established archetype with some good Dinosaurs and several options to boot.

Having a lack of Llanowar Elves (and other one-drop mana producing creatures) is no small oversight, and was a very specific design change on a card slot that had existed since Alpha.  We have been without Llanowar Elves, Elvish Mystic and Fyndhorn Elves for a few years now, and there will absolutely be an impact on the Standard metagame from that individual card.

Customarily, it’s the cheap value creatures that we need to beware of!

What other impact do you think the spoilers will have on Magic?  Did the early spoilers affect anything else?  Let me know in the comments!

As always, thanks for reading!

Pete

@smash_pacman on Twitter

Double Strike: GP Phoenix Analysis

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Another weekend, another major event to review: this time, GP Phoenix. The paper metagame continues to be hard to pin down. There are significant changes from SCG Dallas which muddy the waters and makes any projection difficult. There appear to be some trends forming but anything can be a trend when you only have two data points. I stand by my prediction that it won't be until GP Hartford that we have a clear picture of the metagame and that prediction is looking good.

Before anything else, some congratulations are in order. Denver area players Sung-Jin Ahn and Vikrum Kudva Top 8ed, bravo gentlemen. I expect to never hear the end of this, especially from Sung-Jin. He's been playing Valakut decks for as long as I've known him, and desperately trying to make Bring to Light work. It didn't, and I regularly crushed him at every event until he gave up on his pet. He got partial revenge already; he was the Valakut player I lost to in the finals of the Week Six PPTQ. Now he's got a GP Top 8, and I'm eating crow.

As for the rest of the tournament, I was told by a number of other Denver area players who went that there was a lot of non-Tron ramp Day 1. There were some tweets to that same effect in the Twitter feed, so I'll believe them, though they may have actually been referring to Tron. This is surprising to me, as I lived in Arizona for a while and remember Phoenix being a very control-heavy meta. I guess things change. In any case, Day 2 was very different from what the players were telling me about Day 1.

Day 2 Metagame

I didn't think that Wizards was going to post the Day 2 data, considering how they've been about data releases. I was pleasantly when it was posted in the wrap up article. And then very confused by what I saw. I'm not reposting the chart, just follow the link.

There is considerable stratification in the data. Burn is the most represented deck by a large margin, boasting 28 copies to Jund's 22. There is another steep drop from Jund down to BR Hollow One and Humans at 16. The next drop is by three, down to Mono-Green Tron, after which the line smooths out. The fact that Hollow One, Burn, and Tron were popular is very interesting. All are considered to have favorable matchups against Jund, which is the second most popular deck. Whether this actually means anything is hard to say. Player tend to play their decks regardless of metagame, and this could easily be a prime example of that phenomenon. It could just as easily metagaming.

I'm also interested in the UW Decks. Jeskai had a better overall showing last week, and was certainly spotlighted more often during coverage. However, Jeskai was a non-presence in Phoenix. They're much faster and arguably more interactive at the expense of individual card impact compared to UW, but it seems like that's what players prefer. To me that suggests an expectation of Tron and Jund decks, as UW has better matchups there. This is another deviation to watch.

Cascade of Elves

Bloodbraid Elf made up a significant portion of the Day 2 field. I don't have all of the decklists, so I cannot be 100% certain, but I would expect Jund, RG Eldrazi, and Ponza to all play four copies of Bloodbraid. Every list I've seen certainly does and I cannot fathom why these decks, or indeed any deck that could, would not run a full set. According to Wizards' data, these three archetypes account for 40 decks, or ~16% of the field. That is a large chunk, and it could be higher. I have no decklists, but the listed Zoo variants, Traverse Shadow, Temur, Kiki-Chord, and 4-Color Saheeli lists certainly could run Bloodbraid, and I've seen lists that do. The one Elves deck in the Top 32 actually did and there's no reason the other two couldn't as well. This at minimum means that the actual saturation of Bloodbraid is really 17% and could be as high as ~23%.

Bloodbraid Elf is extremely powerful and if you have the option to play it, there's no real downside. It doesn't take much to see that every deck benefits from casting two spells a turn. It's why Bloodbraid is seeing so much success right now. How long that will last or if it will be problematic is impossible to say. Having an overall high amount of representation to the point that nothing else was possible in URx was what got Splinter Twin banned. It wasn't that UR Twin was so much better than every other deck, it was ultimately that the spectrum of Twin decks was too great. If, and it is a big "if" at this point, Bloodbraid becomes a problem, it may fall the same way. Jund doesn't currently appear to be too good, but Bloodbraid being ~20% of the metagame might be.

Top 32

The real data is not Day 2 but the Top 32, and the data here is very interesting. In Dallas, the Top 32 followed the Day 2 reasonably well. For the most part, decks that had good showings in Day 2 also placed well in the Top 32. The order changed considerably, but the decks themselves stuck around. That is not true of the Phoenix results.

DecksTotal #
Humans5
Affinity3
Mono-Green Tron2
Jund2
Breach Moon2
UW Control2
BR Hollow One2
RG Eldrazi1
Green and Taxes1
Bring to Light Scapeshift1
Ironworks Combo1
Knightfall1
Gifts Storm1
Dredge1
Blue Moon1
Mardu Pyromancer1
GR Ponza1
Elves1
Madcap Moon1
Titanshift1
Taking Turns1

The top three decks have all dropped off significantly. Humans stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field, followed by Affinity, rising from the middle of the pack. This is not at all what I would expect.

Here's Jace; Where's Elf?

There are nine decks that have Jace, the Mind Sculptor in the Top 32. Yes, most only have two copies, and Taking Turns only has one, but Jace is there nevertheless. Meanwhile, there are five decks with Bloodbraid Elf, and it is a four-of in every case.

Jace is certainly more problematic in multiples, and often can't be played early and be meaningful. In any case, this pushes back on the narrative that Jace doesn't have a home and isn't impacting Modern compared to Bloodbraid. I think it likely that Jace's effect is simply more subtle. It may see more play throughout the metagame, but won't place as many copies as the Elf.

Affinity's Back

At one point, Affinity was everywhere, both on the wider metagame stage and in my LGS. However, we didn't see a single copy last week, and only saw a few in previous months. Every regular pilot I know gave up on the deck back in December. Hate was everywhere and there were too many bad matchups. The deck has maintained a high position in the metagame thanks to online results, but not a very visable presence in paper. There are many possible explanations, but recall that linear decks appear and disappear in cycles depending on the hate. Artifact hate is typically high, but in light of Lantern Control and Affinity declining, it appears that players neglected their hate. Looking at the decklists, I certainly don't see many Ancient Grudges or Stony Silences. This is also a plausible reason that Ironworks did so well.

Crashed and Burned?

Burn put the most copies into Day 2 and not a single member into the Top 32. That is a huge flop. This is the same thing that happened in Dallas, and I'm not sure why. The metagame certainly doesn't look unfavorable and I don't see many anti-burn cards anywhere. Burn is a fine deck and powerful in its own right, but it thrives against greedy manabases and durdly decks as a predator. I see plenty of decks that fit that description, so I think that there may be a problem with Burn. Two consecutive tournaments where Burn had a good population in Day 2 and failed to turn that into a good Top 32 suggests that the deck lacks the power necessary to close the tournament. Burn can be fragile in the face of the right interaction at the right time. This is something else to watch, as if this keeps happening it will be necessary to rebuild the deck.

Oh, the Humanity

As with the Dallas Classic, Humans took the top slot. It also won the Grand Prix. Admittedly, Steve Locke did get very lucky in the finals when his opponent got mana screwed and unfavorable Dark Confidant triggers. However, that doesn't diminish the work he did to get to that point, nor the success the deck had in the overall tournament. I would not have expected Humans to do well; the Jund matchup is not great, and neither is Affinity. Yet it got there nonetheless, and with fairly standard lists as far as I can tell.

Comparisons to Dallas

If Dallas was about Storm, then Phoenix was about anti-Storm. Humans was designed as a Storm killer, and it does do that, but it has considerable game against the entire field. A fast clock with intrinsic disruption is very potent. The fact that Jeskai relatively fell off may also have been a factor. Piles of cheap removal are very good against both Humans and Affinity, so UW being more popular helped their rise. The overall field of the two events was very different, though, I'm not sure that's relevant. Phoenix was a much larger tournament, after all. Still, the fact that the answer deck for most popular deck from Dallas was the most popular deck this week is fascinating.

Implications

I believe that players are picking up on the linearity cycle and exploiting it. Affinity and Ironworks combo appear as if from nowhere after months of silence, and aggro in general returns after a tournament focused on combo and midrange. I think players are gaming the system and the next event will be defined by the reaction to this one. When aggro and artifacts dominate, hate and removal come out to play. This strongly implies that players will go for ramp for SCG Milwaukee. Whether you think you can take advantage depends on how willing you are to metagame. And whether you come to the same conclusion.

Future Developments

Trying to extrapolate anything about specific decks from the current data is a losing effort. There's too much variance and too few data points to come to an accurate prediction. It is a safe and also unhelpful bet that there will be more Bloodbraid and Jace decks now that the exploratory phase is finished and lists are coming together. If you're going to SCG Milwaukee as I will, be prepared for anything.

Insider: A Few MTG Finance Headlines

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As I sat down to write an article for this week, I couldn’t think of a new topic that would fill an entire column. It’s not that the MTG finance world has been overly quiet—if anything, it’s been buzzing with maximum news. But many topics worth covering have already been covered and my own unique contributions would be fairly small. This is especially true when it comes to newer cards, such as those impacted by Dominaria spoilers and Masters 25 reprints.

With all that said, I thought I’d cover a few smaller topics this week in more abbreviated fashion. This way I can hit the highlights while also avoiding needless ramblings. And because I wanted to be gimmicky, I figured out a way to apply a common wedding phrase to each of my four topics. Who doesn’t love a catchy theme?

Something Old

As most of you know I follow the Old School market extremely closely. The rate at which I check Card Kingdom’s buy and sell prices as well as their stock on key cards may even border on obsession. The community benefits from this unhealthy obsession, however, because I can report shifts in the market as they’re happening in real-time.

What’s going on lately? I have noticed a couple trends. First, the Alpha market has remained hot but I think it may calm down soon. In Sweden there will be an all-Alpha tournament in a couple weeks. According to the Old School web page, around 50-60 players have signed up. This may sound like a small event for most formats, but in a format where only 1100 copies of each rare exists you can see how readily such an event can impact the secondary market.

The question in my mind is whether all-Alpha events will become more recurring or if this a one time flash in the pan. If it's the latter, we could see less demand for random commons and uncommons going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Twiddle

That’s not to say prices will suddenly tank. But if any new supply hits the market, it may not be absorbed nearly as rapidly. I’ll be watching this trend very closely.

I also want to point out a couple big shifts in market pricing for some classic cards. While buylists have dropped a bit on some of the heavy hitters in Old School (e.g. Juzám Djinn, Serendib Djinn), buy prices on smaller cards have gotten a bump.

I remember when Al-abara's Carpet spiked, its buylist jumped to $16 very quickly. But then as copies came in, Card Kingdom dropped their buy price little by little. Now the price is back up again and this trend may continue.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Al-abara's Carpet

Then you have buylists on some of the garbage rares jumping. Cards like Petra Sphinx, Sentinel, Shapeshifter, and Wall of Opposition are suddenly fetching you double-digit buy prices. Just when I thought the hype around these cards was dying down, a resurgence in buying seems to be taking place, and the Discord has been lighting up with announcements of surprising sales.

What’s more, lower-end Arabian Nights cards have also bounced recently. Check out the buy price on Aladdin, for example.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aladdin

I’ll continue to monitor trends as time goes on. The market seems to ebb and flow as certain cards spike, then retract as other cards take their turn. I can’t predict all this movement, but I am certain of one thing: old cards from Magic’s first two years will continue to grow in value over time.

Something New

Some members of the MTG finance community have been vocal about buying their Masters 25 cards last weekend as prices tumbled. And when I say “tumbled,” I mean it—as in, how Jill descended the hill after Jack made his crown-breaking fall.

For reference, here are the Masters 25 cards that made all-time lows last Sunday.

While some of these drops are worse than others, I think the pain isn’t over just yet. This is especially true for original printings, which will suffer declines much more gradually. So far Imperial Recruiter from Portal: Three Kingdoms has dropped from $250 to $190. I can see this going all the way down to $150 or even $120 over the next six months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Imperial Recruiter

Of course, the more in-demand cards will rebound in a healthy way. But the cards that see less play, or only play in Commander, will really suffer. Cards reprinted at rare will be hit especially hard.

If you’re hoping to buy some cards for your decks, I recommend waiting. If you’re grabbing the Masters 25 printings then you probably only have to wait another week or two. Prioritize cards played frequently in Modern and hold off on some of the lesser-played stuff a bit longer.

Most importantly, monitor stock on TCGplayer to determine when a card is bottoming. As soon as you see stock of the cards you’re after drop for a couple consecutive days, you may be eyeing the best time to jump in.

Something Borrowed

One of the top movers for last week was Fiery Confluence, a Commander 2015 card in the "Wade Into Battle" deck. While market price hasn’t moved just yet, it does look like this card could settle in the $25 range with further possible upside. I remember hearing Douglas Johnson talk about this deck on Brainstorm Brewery the other day, and I have to admit his observation about "Wade Into Battle" is spot on.

He talked about the fact that this deck was still readily available online for under $50. While it was this cheap, he advocated buying them up to crack in order to move the singles individually. I actually found one of these decks in my local Meijer and I tried my luck. Turns out, DJ was 100% right. Just look at some of the cards you get in this deck and the associated market price:

Fiery Confluence - $19
Urza's Incubator - $15
Blade of Selves - $12
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight - $8
Magus of the Wheel - $6
Thought Vessel - $6.50

That’s already over $60 in value. On top of that you get a couple Titans, a Sol Ring, and a bunch of other small-time rares. I sold most of the above cards on eBay to recoup my initial cash outlay, and I ended up shipping a small stack to Card Kingdom for store credit. If you play Commander, you can even keep some of the small stuff essentially for “free” after selling the above list.

Besides the shout-out to DJ, I’m mentioning this because Fiery Confluence is spiking and I wanted to alert folks to this deck. You can’t find them for $40-$50 anymore, unfortunately, but there are still decks in the low to mid $50s online that may be worth a closer look. Especially if you think Fiery Confluence has more room to run.

Something Blue

In addition to Alpha and Arabian Nights cards, I’ve been tracking a new group of cards on Card Kingdom’s website lately: dual lands. These have been slowly on the move so far this year, and I think we are approaching an inevitable tipping point.

One bit of evidence supporting this theory is the fact that a couple duals have quietly been hitting all-time highs recently. Plateau and Tropical Island notched their all-time highs just this past Sunday: $80 and $255 respectively. Bayou and Underground Sea hit their highs earlier in the week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tropical Island

But the most exciting data point for me has to be Card Kingdom’s recent buylist action on these lands. They keep eight to nine dual lands on the first page of their hot list at any given time, and the number-one card has been Underground Sea for quite a while now. The blue dual land made headlines the other day when I noticed Card Kingdom was offering $360 for near-mint copies! That has to be a record! They’ve scaled that back a bit recently, but I think we’re seeing cracks in the dual land supply that will break very soon.

What will result? Expect a spike across the board as copies start to dry up, dual lands generate more buzz on social media, and players scramble to get a few extra copies out of fear they’ll miss out. This will lead to new highs for all dual lands across the board, but the blue duals will lead the pack with Underground Sea at the helm.

Wrapping It Up

Sometimes the mainstream news in MTG finance isn’t in my wheelhouse. I could attempt to write about a subject I’m less familiar with, but that is never optimal. Equally underwhelming would be yet another article about a topic that isn’t exactly on the forefront of everyone’s minds.

This week I struck a balance by shamelessly leveraging an old wedding superstition: “something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue.” The theme may be cheesy, but each of these topics are important.

The Old School market continues to evolve under the influence of tournament structures and vendor buylists and I will continue to keep you abreast of these trends. Meanwhile, Masters 25 is wreaking havoc on the secondary market and this is creating some imminent, attractive buys. A recent spike in Fiery Confluence is creating an attractive opportunity (again) with a Commander 2015 deck. And I think dual lands are going to spike sometime soon as they all quietly rise in price.

These topics just about summarize my recent focus in the world of Magic finance. Most of the time I stay focused on a single area at any given time. But with so much going on, this fractured article approach is the best way to touch on each of these topics all at once.

…

Sigbits

  • This week I want to mention three Alpha commons that have surprisingly high price tags. Perhaps you can visit your local card shops and dig a few of these out of their binders, netting you some sizable profits. For starters, Llanowar Elves has really shot up lately. This happened before it was spoiled in Dominaria, but now that it’s coming back to Standard there’s even more reason to want the first printing of the mana dork. It’s cute that Card Kingdom is paying $30 for near mint copies and all, but…yeah…

  • Next I want to touch on Giant Growth. This one has also shot up lately, and now even heavily-played copies are selling for over $30 on eBay. Finding a nice copy will likely cost you over $50. Card Kingdom’s buy price is $18 but that will also need to climb higher.
  • Lastly, check out Alpha Twiddle. This card isn’t as exciting as the previous two, but it’s still randomly quite expensive. What’s more, I had a couple copies that sold fairly quickly on eBay so there is real demand here. Recent copies sold for between $15 and $22 depending on condition, and Card Kingdom’s $15 buy price is not so terrible in this case.

Insider: Cheap Rivals Cards to Invest in Now!

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I'm excited to share with you my picks for Rivals of Ixalan uncommons to invest in.

Uncommons as a category are not doing as well as they have in the past. I've made mention of this before, and it's disappointing, because they used to be a surefire way to make insane margins. However, with the redemption window curtailed and treasure chests continuously pumping new supply of uncommons into the marketplace, uncommons are just not showing the same price resiliency that they had in the past. This is especially true for large sets — only Blossoming Defense and Field of Ruin have been able to ascend from bulk to a price point that would give you good profit margins. Cast Out and Censor still are mired at near-bulk and bulk prices respectively.

With that said, small-set uncommons do seem to be doing better. Supreme Will recovered quickly, and Doomfall has also now recovered. The best deserts have even reached a price of 1.00 tix. Thus, even though my confidence in large-set uncommons has been shaken, I remain confident that investing in small-set uncommons is smart and offers an easy way to pay for a few drafts or several Constructed league entries.

Rivals of Ixalan is a small set, and so I expect us to be able to make some good money here. Investing in uncommons is a great way to begin investing, so for those of you who have been reading my articles but haven't yet done any speculating or investing on MTGO, now is a decent chance to do so relatively risk-free. I've got some great picks down below, so let's dig in!

(I) Baffling End Is the New Silkwrap, Which Means....

Yea, which means you should invest heavily into it. When I initially wrote this article I predicted that this card would eventually spike up to at least 1.00 tix. Now that Seal Away has been spoiled from Dominaria, I think I need to temper my expectations of this card. I still believe that this card will rise above bulk, but I no longer expect such a high ceiling. I'll be buying a lot of this at bulk and believe I will be able to sell them for between 0.25 and 0.50 tix. Silkwrap coexisted alongside Immolating Glare, after all.

My recommended buy price: 0.02-0.03 tix

(II) Ravenous Chupacabra

I suspect that many readers would have thought that Ravenous Chupacabra would make for the best uncommon speculation opportunity in Rivals for Ixalan, but I think we need to temper our expectations here. The famous Patrick Sullivan rant, while apt and insightful, is more about the type of card that Ravenous Chupacabra is and less about the card itself. Ravenous Chupacabra definitely will have demand over the long haul, especially if rotation makes exile effects less necessary, and especially if other cards like God-Pharaoh's Gift are printed that work well with creatures whose power and toughness are afterthoughts to the spell that is attached to them. I like investing in Chupacabra at bulk, and believe you are likely going to be able to sell it back to bots for 0.15 to 0.35 tix at various points during the next year.

My recommended buy price: 0.01-0.03 tix

(III) Just How Golden is Golden Demise?

Golden Demise is the latest in a long tradition of small-set uncommons that give -2/-2 to all creatures for 1BB. You would have made a lot of money on Drown in Sorrow...and nothing at all on Flaying Tendrils (which became a promo, to be fair). This one has the upside of being a potential hoser in Token mirrors. If you can get these for below a penny, I think you could do worse. Let's say you invest $1 into Golden Demise — your range of return is basically minus-$1 to plus-$50.

My recommended buy price: <0.01 tix

(IV) The Sky's the Limit for Skymarcher Aspirant

Of the last three editions of Savannah Lions in Standard, only Dragon Hunter rose above bulk. But boy did it rise above bulk in a major way due to the rise of human shells featuring Always Watching and Thalia's Lieutenant from Shadows Over Innistrad. Skymarcher Aspirant has the same sort of potential, as it is a vampire, has a significant upside in becoming a flyer, exists in a format alongside some tribal and token payoffs like Radiant Destiny, and is from a small set. I suspect I'll invest some into these, but only because the risk is so minimal.

My recommended buy price: <0.01 tix

(V) Tribal Lords and Tribal Roleplayers

I'll be avoiding these cards. Yes, they are powerful, but their narrowness worries me. Uncommons need to be more versatile and desired by a wider range of decks to exhibit price spikes and extended price increases needed to recoup your invested capital. I'm not sure how these will ever rise above 0.20 tix or so, and my hunch is that they will stay below 0.10 tix. If I were to choose one to invest in, it would be Legion Lieutenant simply for the reason that the vampire tribal deck is already tier two and will become even better once Isolated Chapel becomes Standard legal.

(VI) Other Cards I'm Avoiding

I think these are the only other cards that are tempting, and I'll be avoiding them. The ceiling on Thrashing Brontodon is probably about 0.10 tix, which means it's a waste of your time. Curious Obsession, like the lords mentioned earlier, is too narrow to ever rise above bulk.

(VII) Signing Off

As you can see, there are many good opportunities here. I will likely be investing in Baffling End, Golden Demise, and Skymarcher Aspirant. Please leave your questions and comments down below, and I'll be sure to get back to you! A copy of my portfolio can be found here.

Insider: QS Cast #89: Back to Dominaria

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Masters 25 release
  • Dominaria Leaks
  • Interests

 

Cards we Discussed


*Honorable mention from Insider - Haakon, Stromgald Scourge

Enjoy!

Insider: Running the Numbers on Online Marketplaces

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Today's article is aimed at those who are looking to get into selling cards online using a marketplace. I'll be comparing the fee structures of several different services to see which offers the best percent return.

First I want to cover my list of fees (across all the platforms).

Fees
Regular TCGplayer 10.25%
Paypal/Credit Card Percent 2.50%
Paypal/Credit Card Base Fee $0.30
Singles Fee 10.25%
TCG Direct Fee 2.50%
TCGplayer Pro Sync Singles 7.75%
TCGplayer Pro Fee 2.50%
PWE Shipping Cost $0.52
Tracked Package $2.80
Crystal Commerce (CC) Fees
Monthly $99.00
Amazon/eBay Sales 1.50%
TCG Sales 2.50%
eBay Fees (Fixed Price) 12.00%
Amazon Fixed Fee $0.99
Amazon Rate 15.00%

One aspect I was unable to account for here is the flat Crystal Commerce fee of $99 per month. This gets dispersed as a cost for every sale, based on the number of sales you have per month. So for those who use the Crystal Commerce system, you'll also want to factor that into your equations. This fee is obviously quite onerous for smaller-scale operations, but if you have a significant number of sales per month, it likely gets diluted down to a much more business-friendly cost per transaction.

Now for the numbers comparing what you actually make on each order after fees and shipping costs. Note that the values in the table below simply refer to how much you get from the sale itself. To find your true profit, you have to subtract out what you actually paid for the card.

I highlighted the $50 mark to emphasize where TCGplayer requires you to switch to tracked shipping. If you're using another service, you could choose not to, taking on more risk and increasing your return. This might make some of the non-TCGplayer options more attractive, but your customers may not be thrilled that they spent that much money and didn't get a tracking number.

Order Value Regular Storefront Direct Storefront TCGplayer Pro Amazon (no CC) eBay (no CC) Amazon w/ CC eBay w/ CC
$2.00 $0.93 $0.62 $0.88 $0.19 $0.89 $0.16 $0.86
$3.00 $1.80 $1.46 $1.72 $1.04 $1.75 $1.00 $1.70
$4.00 $2.67 $2.31 $2.57 $1.89 $2.60 $1.83 $2.54
$5.00 $3.54 $3.16 $3.42 $2.74 $3.46 $2.67 $3.38
$6.00 $4.42 $4.01 $4.27 $3.59 $4.31 $3.50 $4.22
$7.00 $5.29 $4.85 $5.11 $4.44 $5.17 $4.34 $5.06
$8.00 $6.16 $5.70 $5.96 $5.29 $6.02 $5.17 $5.90
$9.00 $7.03 $6.55 $6.81 $6.14 $6.88 $6.01 $6.74
$10.00 $7.91 $7.40 $7.66 $6.99 $7.73 $6.84 $7.58
$11.00 $8.78 $8.24 $8.50 $7.84 $8.59 $7.68 $8.42
$12.00 $9.65 $9.09 $9.35 $8.69 $9.44 $8.51 $9.26
$13.00 $10.52 $9.94 $10.20 $9.54 $10.30 $9.35 $10.10
$14.00 $11.40 $10.79 $11.05 $10.39 $11.15 $10.18 $10.94
$15.00 $12.27 $11.63 $11.89 $11.24 $12.01 $11.02 $11.78
$16.00 $13.14 $12.48 $12.74 $12.09 $12.86 $11.85 $12.62
$17.00 $14.01 $13.33 $13.59 $12.94 $13.72 $12.69 $13.46
$18.00 $14.89 $14.18 $14.44 $13.79 $14.57 $13.52 $14.30
$19.00 $15.76 $15.02 $15.28 $14.64 $15.43 $14.36 $15.14
$20.00 $16.63 $15.87 $16.13 $15.49 $16.28 $15.19 $15.98
$21.00 $17.50 $14.17 $16.98 $16.34 $17.14 $16.03 $16.82
$22.00 $18.38 $15.02 $17.83 $17.19 $17.99 $16.86 $17.66
$23.00 $19.25 $15.86 $18.67 $18.04 $18.85 $17.70 $18.50
$24.00 $20.12 $16.71 $19.52 $18.89 $19.70 $18.53 $19.34
$25.00 $20.99 $17.56 $20.37 $19.74 $20.56 $19.37 $20.18
$26.00 $21.87 $18.41 $21.22 $20.59 $21.41 $20.20 $21.02
$27.00 $22.74 $19.25 $22.06 $21.44 $22.27 $21.04 $21.86
$28.00 $23.61 $20.10 $22.91 $22.29 $23.12 $21.87 $22.70
$29.00 $24.48 $20.95 $23.76 $23.14 $23.98 $22.71 $23.54
$30.00 $25.36 $21.80 $24.61 $23.99 $24.83 $23.54 $24.38
$31.00 $26.23 $22.64 $25.45 $24.84 $25.69 $24.38 $25.22
$32.00 $27.10 $23.49 $26.30 $25.69 $26.54 $25.21 $26.06
$33.00 $27.97 $24.34 $27.15 $26.54 $27.40 $26.05 $26.90
$34.00 $28.85 $25.19 $28.00 $27.39 $28.25 $26.88 $27.74
$35.00 $29.72 $26.03 $28.84 $28.24 $29.11 $27.72 $28.58
$36.00 $30.59 $26.88 $29.69 $29.09 $29.96 $28.55 $29.42
$37.00 $31.46 $27.73 $30.54 $29.94 $30.82 $29.39 $30.26
$38.00 $32.34 $28.58 $31.39 $30.79 $31.67 $30.22 $31.10
$39.00 $33.21 $29.42 $32.23 $31.64 $32.53 $31.06 $31.94
$40.00 $34.08 $30.27 $33.08 $32.49 $33.38 $31.89 $32.78
$41.00 $34.95 $31.12 $33.93 $33.34 $34.24 $32.73 $33.62
$42.00 $35.83 $31.97 $34.78 $34.19 $35.09 $33.56 $34.46
$43.00 $36.70 $32.81 $35.62 $35.04 $35.95 $34.40 $35.30
$44.00 $37.57 $33.66 $36.47 $35.89 $36.80 $35.23 $36.14
$45.00 $38.44 $34.51 $37.32 $36.74 $37.66 $36.07 $36.98
$46.00 $39.32 $35.36 $38.17 $37.59 $38.51 $36.90 $37.82
$47.00 $40.19 $36.20 $39.01 $38.44 $39.37 $37.74 $38.66
$48.00 $41.06 $37.05 $39.86 $39.29 $40.22 $38.57 $39.50
$49.00 $41.93 $37.90 $40.71 $40.14 $41.08 $39.41 $40.34
$50.00 $40.53 $38.75 $39.28 $38.71 $39.65 $37.96 $38.90
$51.00 $41.40 $39.59 $40.12 $39.56 $40.51 $38.80 $39.74
$52.00 $42.27 $40.44 $40.97 $40.41 $41.36 $39.63 $40.58
$53.00 $43.14 $41.29 $41.82 $41.26 $42.22 $40.47 $41.42
$54.00 $44.02 $42.14 $42.67 $42.11 $43.07 $41.30 $42.26
$55.00 $44.89 $42.98 $43.51 $42.96 $43.93 $42.14 $43.10
$56.00 $45.76 $43.83 $44.36 $43.81 $44.78 $42.97 $43.94
$57.00 $46.63 $44.68 $45.21 $44.66 $45.64 $43.81 $44.78
$58.00 $47.51 $45.53 $46.06 $45.51 $46.49 $44.64 $45.62
$59.00 $48.38 $46.37 $46.90 $46.36 $47.35 $45.48 $46.46
$60.00 $49.25 $47.22 $47.75 $47.21 $48.20 $46.31 $47.30

Interestingly enough (though not surprising when you actually take the time to add up all the different fees), plain old TCGplayer storefront allows for the most profit per transaction.

TCGDirect

One of the benefits TCGplayer Direct offers is that you can actually sell $2-or-less cards for 50% (and that's it). This can be used to move a bunch of smaller cards where paying fees individually would be unfeasible. You also gain the security that any buyer disputes or lost packages don't affect you (TCGplayer eats it).

However, there is a major downside as well. TCGplayer is extremely picky on card conditions sent back to them via Direct. If the card you send gets graded down, they buy a replacement from another Direct seller—or a regular seller, if no Direct seller has one—and charge you the difference. So if you don't grade well you can lose a lot of money quickly.

The other benefit to TCG Direct is that it opens up using the TCGplayer buylist, which allows you to purchase cards from people at buylist prices. Unfortunately, here again TCGplayer charges you a fee per card (10%). Now, TCG will directly add cards sold to them via your buylist into your store's inventory, where any sales will charge you the usual fees listed above. So you need to account for that in your buylist prices—this is why a lot of store buylists on TCGplayer are below those of major stores.

Note that TCG Direct's replacement fee jumps up at the $20 mark. The fee jumps up again at the $50 mark where you have to pay for tracking and signature confirmation, whereas a regular TCGplayer storefront only requires tracking.

Another benefit you get (though it's extremely difficult to quantify) is that most TCG Direct sellers sell cards for more than regular TCGplayer storefront. Buyers know the cards are meticulously graded and will ship out extremely quickly, and apparently many will pay for that guarantee.

Lastly, TCGplayer eliminates a lot of the work associated with buying and selling cards online. They argue that their flat shipping replacement cost is actually cheaper than doing things yourself. If you're a small-scale operation, however, I would argue the actual effort of finding the card and packaging it isn't very high. In this case it may be cheaper to do it yourself, especially if you buy the packaging supplies in bulk.

Finally, one somewhat onerous issue I've heard people complain about is if a buyer buys cards from multiple TCG Direct sellers, each seller is charged with the "shipping replacement fee" even though TCGplayer sends out only a single envelope. In the end, the actual seller doesn't know how much or from whom the buyer purchased so it's largely an unknown vexation, but it still seems like TCGplayer could look at splitting up the replacement cost when this occurs (which I'm sure would make sellers happy).

Amazon

Amazon also offers a "professional program" with an alternate fee structure. If you are a professional seller on Amazon, instead of paying a $0.99 fee on every single sale, you pay $40 a month. If you have more than 40 sales per month on average, you'd be better off going as a professional seller as your fees per transaction would drop. The $40 monthly fee would then get diluted (on a per-transaction basis) more and more as the number of sales went up.

Amazon also pays directly into your bank account every few days (as opposed to TCGplayer taking upwards of two weeks). If you're doing a lot of selling and need to restock inventory by buying, you'll have access to your money faster. You still have shipping fees with Amazon, but there isn't a payment fee (at least as far as I could find).

Crystal Commerce

As you can see by the numbers, the Crystal Commerce platform ends up costing the most and providing the smallest profits. This shouldn't be surprising, given all the other fees are already necessary and the Crystal Commerce fee is tacked on in addition.

However, that's a somewhat short-sighted view of it, as the value of tracking, maintaining, and organizing a large-scale inventory is no small feat. Still, it's obviously a bad move for small-scale operations as you often lose an additional 6-10% of your profits, plus the monthly cost of Crystal Commerce. So you'd really need to have a decent-sized inventory to justify the added expenditure—especially when TCGplayer allows you to keep inventory decently maintained on the regular storefront option.

I have been told there are additional analytics you get from Crystal Commerce which can allow you to better run your business. I'd argue that any analytics you can get from them could be done yourself (so again it would have to come down to how much effort you want to put in yourself).

Conclusion

In the end if you want to maximize your profit on a per-transaction basis, you're best off sticking with plain old TCGplayer (or, if you want to really maximize profit, Facebook—though that typically requires a lot more effort and it's more difficult to track inventory).

However, there is definitely value to your time and the amount of effort you want to put into it. As you'd expect, the less effort/work you want to do yourself, the more money you lose out on.

I will admit that I've only sold on eBay and TCGplayer storefront. My sales tend to be on average five or less per day, so it doesn't take up too much of my time. Those work best for me, but I'd love to hear from people who sell a lot more and get their feedback.

Daily Stock Watch – Ward of Bones

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the Friday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I'm starting to love the idea of writing about a card that's under everyone's radar every Friday, so I think I'll make it a fixture starting today. Today's card is definitely a seldom-heard one as it is one of those cards that hovered around bulk territory when it was still Standard legal, but is now one of those cards that you could flash in your binders for selling.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ward of Bones

Ward of Bones just hit its all-time high of $6.11 today, and the trend of casual cards rising in prices has been steady. This is usually the tricky part when speculating on what cards are good buys because some cards are just deceivingly expensive when there really is no market for them. I'm quite sure it doesn't take rocket science to figure out that this is one of the cards that I'm referring to, as this would only make some sense if it appears in a multiplayer EDH list that would annoy your playgroup. But then again, I'm not really a Commander guru, so maybe it has other uses that ticks other people's fancies.

For reference, let's check out this Oloro list that has Ward of Bones in it.

Oloro and his Friends

Commander

1 Oloro, Ageless Ascetic

Artifacts

1 Azorius Signet
1 Chromatic Lantern
1 Coldsteel Heart
1 Cursed Totem
1 Dimir Signet
1 Fellwar Stone
1 Mindlock Orb
1 Orzhov Signet
1 Sol Ring
1 Talisman of Dominance
1 Talisman of Progress
1 Ward of Bones
1 Well of Lost Dreams

Other Spells

1 Aura of Silence
1 Future Sight
1 Humility
1 Karmic Justice
1 Land Tax
1 Lethal Vapors
1 Night of Souls' Betrayal
1 No Mercy
1 Overburden
1 Painful Quandary
1 Phyrexian Arena
1 Polluted Bonds
1 Psychic Surgery
1 Rhystic Study
1 Seal of Cleansing
1 Spreading Plague
1 Tainted Æther
1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
1 Dovin Baan
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
1 Jace Beleren
1 Karn Liberated
1 Nahiri, the Lithomancer
1 Narset Transcendent
1 Ob Nixilis Reignited
1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Instants and Sorceries

1 Anguished Unmaking
1 Condemn
1 Counterspell
1 Cyclonic Rift
1 Dark Ritual
1 Dissipate
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Hinder
1 Path to Exile
1 Return to Dust
1 Spell Crumple
1 Sudden Spoiling
1 Swords to Plowshares
1 Void Shatter
1 Wipe Away
1 Council's Judgment
1 Merciless Eviction
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Terminus
1 Wrath of God

Lands

1 Adarkar Wastes
1 Arcane Sanctum
1 Azorius Chancery
1 Caves of Koilos
1 Concealed Courtyard
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Dimir Aqueduct
1 Drowned Catacomb
1 Fetid Heath
1 Flooded Strand
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Godless Shrine
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Isolated Chapel
1 Marsh Flats
1 Mystic Gate
1 Orzhov Basilica
3 Plains
1 Polluted Delta
1 Prairie Stream
1 Reliquary Tower
1 Seachrome Coast
1 Sunken Hollow
1 Sunken Ruins
3 Swamp
1 Temple of Deceit
1 Temple of Enlightenment
1 Temple of Silence
1 Underground River
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Watery Grave

One look at this deck and you'd see that this is a superfriends type of list that tends to maximize the power of Oloro, Ageless Ascetic and the Esper-colored planeswalkers. Planting a Ward of Bones midgame would mean that your opponents can't play any other spells besides planeswalkers once you've cleared the board with a Council's Judgment. I would have inserted an Armageddon somewhere in here to make it more unfun, but I might just end up playing Commander with myself. Even so, I don't see any justice in having to spend $6 for a card that is asking for too much before it even becomes relevant.

EDH Gainers

Above are some of the cards that I've already featured on the Daily Stock Watch as financial gainers for varying reasons. Some of them have enjoyed buyouts from online sites, while others just "matured" eventually and are seeing some fringe play in Commander lists. Ward of Bones is another one of those cards that are expensive for all the wrong reasons, so being able to move out your copies for its current price is definitely the best way to go. This isn't going to get reprinted anytime soon because there's just no reason to do so. If the price is right, you should definitely let loose and just dispose all your copies.

At the moment, you could find lots of copies of Ward of Bones from online stores such as StarCityGames, TCGPlayer, ChannelFireball and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $5.65 up to $8.36. Foil copies are somewhere between $12.99 up to $17, and I see no reason for you to purchase them unless you really need them in your funky deck. This is one of those cards that will lose its value eventually and would often rot in your card collections because of the price tag that it demands. Move them around if you could find a new home for them.

And that’s it for this week's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Unlikely Gifts: Brewing with Precognition Field

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By now, most Modern players have seen the Chinese Dominaria spoiler leak going around. If not, head on over to the Mothership, where Wizards themselves confirmed the leak and graciously posted translations of the cards. While unsolicited spoilers can ruin the season for some, for players experiencing a brewing lull, they can serve as a much-needed shot of adrenaline. For once, I'm one such player; I've been slinging enough colorless creatures to benefit greatly from a reason to crack a fetchland. Precognition Field is that reason.

Today, we'll take a look at a few of my brews with Dominaria cards. All of them feature the new enchantment.

Level 1: UR Wizards

Wizards is a tribe I have tried to make work in Modern before. After all, there are just so many great ones! Even Dark Confidant is a Wizard. But Bob rarely found himself in my final builds, which often ended up revolving around the only close-to-passable payoff card in the format: Azami, Lady of Scrolls.

Azami certainly has her problems, chief among them costing five mana. Each time I tried a Wizards shell, I found it much better to include a powerful, on-theme non-Wizard or two over the clunky 0/2. So I benched the project indefinitely.

Dominaria introduces payoff cards for going into Wizard synergies that I think might just be worth it, especially in a shell that needs few compromises to meet their requirements: Wizard's Lightning, a 2R Lightning Bolt that costs the same as its forefather if we control a Wizard, and Wizard's Retort, a 1UU Counterspell with the same clause. Seeing these cards spoiled inspired me to again dredge up my Spellstutter Sprites.

UR Wizards

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Spellstutter Sprite
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Bedlam Reveler
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Young Pyromancer

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Wizard's Lightning
4 Wizard's Retort
4 Manamorphose
2 Vapor Snag
1 Dismember
2 Opt

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
2 Mutavault
2 Spirebluff Canal
3 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Pithing Needle
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Blood Moon
3 Ancient Grudge
3 Precognition Field

Creatures

That's right, Delver of Secrets is a Wizard! And what better card to protect with Wizard's Retort? Well, Insectile Aberration, which unfortunately loses the valuable creature type. But the creature still has too good a rate not to include in this shell, which I quickly found needed pressure fast to back up its meek Spellstutter Sprites. More Vendilion Cliques could also fill this role, but I don't like how clunky the card proves in multiples or how vulnerable it is to Lightning Bolt. While we can feasibly tap two for Young Pyromancer and still represent countermagic on curve, doing so with a three drop is much harder.

Bedlam Reveler joins Snapcaster Mage as a way to recoup card advantage against attrition decks (especially Jund). It attacks from an angle that requires opponents to bring in graveyard hate, which incidentally does little against our post-board plan of Precognition Field. If we see Rest in Peace and the like coming after a Bedlam-fueled victory, we can easily sidestep the hate with our board plan, gaining virtual card advantage and tempo in the process. It turns out Snapcaster Mage is totally reasonable as a 2/1 Wizard with flash in this deck, ability or no; it lets us generate pressure or present a hard counterspell out of nowhere.

Young Pyromancer and Vendilion Clique round out the threat lineup. Just the threat of Pyromancer incentivizes opponents to bring in token sweepers like Ratchet Bomb and Anger of the Gods, which are otherwise pretty meh against a deck that can ride individual threats like Clique, Delver, or Reveler to victory. But the creature unfortunately isn't a Wizard.

Spells

Naturally, we max out on Dominaria's new Wizard spells, which inspired this deck in the first place. I was worried the full set of Retort would prove too much, but it turns out Counterspell is pretty darn good. With even a minor clock established, it's easy to buy time with Retort and Snapcaster Mage for a couple turns until we can cleanly burn opponents out.

Lightning is clearly the better of the two spells for this reason. Bolt-Snap-Bolt is already one of the grosser things to do in Modern, and Wizard's Lightning improves our odds of pulling it off. We can even flash in Snapcaster Mage and cast Lightning from the graveyard for R on a previously empty board, making the new card dangerously close to the original. Our heaps of reach make it easier to rely on cheap beaters like Spellstutter Sprite to sneak in early damage.

Finally, Opt is a card I'd play four of if space permitted. But I'd rather have all the other cards in the deck than more Opts. The card is great with most of our creatures, though, and superb alongside Precognition Field, so I think making room for at least a couple is a must.

Sideboard

The sideboard is full of standard stuff, but one card I want to draw special attention to is Precognition Field. This card is at the center of all my brews today, and for good reason: it's sweet!

Field is a "fixed" Future Sight in that it only lets pilots cast instants and sorceries from the tops of their libraries. But in a deck full of instants and sorceries, the restriction is trivial. Manamorphose and Opt let us filter through our decks blazing-fast, but the strongest enabler is Serum Visions. Seeing three cards is great with Field, as it puts useless lands and creatures to the bottom while usually "drawing" us a card or two in the process. Of course, Lightning Bolt and Wizard's Lightning are the actual best cards to pair with Precognition Field, as they single-handedly turn the enchantment into a win condition. Whenever we see either of these cards on the deck, we can simply point them at opponents and continue digging.

I think Precognition Field fills a unique role for spell-based, Turbo Xerox-style Modern decks: it lets them snowball card advantage in a way that's difficult to attack. Bedlam Reveler forces blue decks heavily into red and bites it to graveyard hate; Jace, the Mind Sculptor requires a very specific window to come down and survive the turn, and even then can be easily removed by anyone with haste attackers or Lightning Bolts (read: most of the format). Enchantments are by their nature tougher to do away with. As long as we're not just dead the following turn, which speedbumps like Delver of Secrets and cheap disruption like Bolt and Sprite see to, it's much easier to resolve Field than it is a Jace. We just tap out into Field, let opponents have a turn, and then basically "go off," casting two or three spells per turn while filling up our hand with extra resources.

As far as boarding strategy with this deck, I have found it ideal to keep cheap threats in against linear decks like Burn, removing card advantage engines like Bedlam Reveler for more interaction. Fair decks tend to bring in lots of removal against us, so siding out Delver for Fields is a winning strategy there. The only way for decks like Jund to beat Field is to Maelstrom Pulse it or just go under us.

Variations

I also tried a spin on this deck without the one- and two-of creatures, instead running a full set of Baral, Chief of Compliance. I have long wanted to utilize Baral in a fair deck, and the new Wizard spells seemed perfect for this purpose. The build maxed out on Remand and Chart a Course, ran an Apostle's Blessing alongside Dismember for the random free-spell blowout, and packed Thing in the Ice in the side as extra pressure. The idea with this build was to maximize our tempo role in Game 1 and rely on Precognition Field after siding to get us through the midrange matchups.

The Baral build excelled when it drew Delver or Baral, but floundered the rest of the time. It simply had trouble closing against the faster linear decks, a problem Thing in the Ice didn't really solve. That said, its post-board Precognition plan was awesome, leading me to experiment more directly with the enchantment.

Level 2: Temur Field

My first instinct was to shove Precognition Field into the Field of Ruin-featuring UR Pyromancer deck, but I decided after just a few matches that the deck already had what it needed. Otherwise, wouldn't it play Jace, the Mind Sculptor? So, I gave the card a whirl in my most beloved color combination: Temur.

Temur Field packs Precognition Field in the mainboard, but still brings the beats to beat up on uninteractive opponents.

Temur Field

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
2 Young Pyromancer
3 Birds of Paradise
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Bloodbraid Elf
1 Bedlam Reveler

Enchantments

3 Precognition Field

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Tarfire
4 Manamorphose

Sorceries

4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Faithless Looting
4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
3 Spirebluff Canal
3 Island
1 Forest
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Pithing Needle
2 Young Pyromancer
2 Blood Moon
2 Negate
3 Remand
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Echoing Truth
2 Pyroclasm

Creatures

Birds of Paradise is the freakiest card in the list by a fair margin. Here's a one-mana spell that's weak in the late-game Precognition Field aspires to and is stranded on top of the deck when we have the enchantment in play. So what gives?

Birds ramps us into Field itself, which I found was important for a pre-board plan revolving around the card. Otherwise, we need a ton of interaction to not just get rolled by aggro decks. It's also a high-priority removal target on turn one, drawing Fatal Pushes away from Tarmogoyf and Bolts away from Young Pyromancer. Goyf easily grows to 5/6 in this deck since we can Loot away extra fields, and Pyromancer spirals out of control fast both with Field and with good ol' Manamorphose.

Dead Birds also feed Traverse the Ulvenwald, a boon since it's hard to include Mishra's Bauble alongside Field. And when Birds survives, the upside is real: we can play Pyromancer and immediately get a token, and follow that up with Field or Bloodbraid Elf. Having extra mana lying around also doesn't hurt when we're pseudo-storming off the top of our deck.

Bedlam, Snap, and Bloodbraid are all Traverse the Ulvenwald targets. It's usually preferable to just dig up Bedlam Reveler and slam it that turn or the next, but when we lack instants and sorceries in the graveyard, Elf is a better pick. Snapcaster usually doubles as a searchable removal spell, or adds a body by recasting Traverse. Additionally, having all those one-ofs in the deck keeps opponents guessing when we draw them naturally.

Spells

I really wanted to build a Precognition Field deck with Traverse the Ulvenwald. Without delirium, the card casts off the top for a basic, letting us immediately cast whatever instant remains or get a shuffle. And with, it gives us a way to functionally cast creatures off the Field.

The problem was supplementing Traverse. I started with a Temur shell because I'm comfortable in the colors and didn't want to abandon Serum Visions. Red was a natural include for Tarfire and Lightning Bolt, the latter of which is a crucial include alongside Field.

Faithless Looting is another key piece of the puzzle. It sifts through extra Fields and helps us find one when we don't have the enchantment handy, and even turns on delirium in this deck. Going minus early isn't such a problem when we can snowball card advantage with a Field later. It's also a fantastic Reveler enabler, joining Manamorphose and our other cantrips in powering out the Devil reliably.

Sideboard

More Pyromancers give us a plan against graveyard hate, and the counterspells let us beat spell-based combo and Tron. Field isn't necessarily dead in these matchups since we can push it out a turn early; having one in play lets us set up permission off the top of the deck with Serum Visions, for example, or otherwise just draw into what we need.

Variations

I went through a ton of variations with this list, at different times running a full set of Bloodbraids, a full set of Pyromancers, or a full set of Birds. Most of my builds differed primarily in their creature lineups. I tried Noble Hierarch, too, but tapping for red was too important with Blood Moon and Bedlam Reveler in the mix.

Level 3: Grixis Field

The next step was to move away from midrange and push deeper into control territory. Fatal Push and Collective Brutality were cards I felt would compliment Field well, as they significantly impact the board on the cheap, getting us closer to stabilizing with the enchantment.

Grixis Field

Creatures

2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Young Pyromancer

Enchantments

4 Precognition Field

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
4 Opt
4 Manamorphose
2 Remand

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Faithless Looting
2 Collective Brutality

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Spirebluff Canal
4 Island
1 Swamp
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Hazoret the Fervent
1 Fatal Push
1 Entrancing Melody
1 Collective Brutality
4 Thoughtseize
2 Remand
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Molten Rain
2 Pyroclasm

Creatures

Young Pyromancer is our main win condition other than Bolt-Snap-Bolt, and does so much work in this deck it forces opponents to respect the token plan post-board despite the Shaman's slim numbers. In this way, Pyro's a great distraction en route to setting up a Field. Tasigur, the Golden Fang can also close games, but it's mostly here as a Goyf for aggressive decks like Burn.

Spells

While Fatal Push is dead on some boards, Collective Brutality and Faithless Looting ensure we can use the cards in our hand for something. Similarly, we have no trouble maxing out on Precognition Field.

Manamorphose does notably less for this deck than for the others: we don't have Bedlam Reveler or Traverse the Ulvenwald, and only run 2 Young Pyromancer. I still think it's a fine include, fueling delve in the absence of Thought Scour and complimenting Field nicely. But I'd look to axe this card first if I needed room for something else.

Sideboard

The sideboard for this deck went hard on the Tron hate, since we're far less proactive than the other Field builds proposed in this article. Field has to stay in for that matchup, as it's a big part of our win condition; that's why we like Molten Rain over something like Spreading Seas.

Takeaways

This deck could use a little oomph when it comes to closing, but that's a problem shared among reactive control decks generally. Other than that, I think Grixis Control is a decent shell for Precognition Field. The card certainly impressed me more than Jace, the Mind Sculptor in the deck as a snowballing card advantage engine. It just requires the deck to be built a certain way that takes full advantage of having a Field on board. The upside of this drawback is that "bad" enablers like Faithless Looting are actually quite good in a vacuum, and Field lets us run them despite their own shortcomings.

Level 4: Traverse Shadow

The last home I tried for Precognition Field was good ol' Traverse Shadow. This deck already naturally does a lot of what I wanted my Field decks to do, although I had to make a few adjustments to ensure the enchantment retained maximum potency once it became our gameplan.

Traverse Shadow

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Street Wraith
1 Bedlam Reveler

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

3 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
2 Fatal Push
1 Dismember
2 Manamorphose
1 Temur Battle Rage
3 Stubborn Denial

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Serum Visions

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Polluted Delta
1 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Fatal Push
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Temur Battle Rage
1 Kozilek's Return
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Collective Brutality
1 Maelstrom Pulse
3 Precognition Field

Changes

After testing without, I ended up keeping Mishra's Bauble in the deck—the artifact is simply too important for delirium to cut, even for Faithless Looting. Rather, the big change here is fitting Lightning Bolt. Manamorphose also earns an include here, which lets us top out with Bedlam Reveler over more common techs like Snapcaster Mage or Grim Flayer. Also on-theme is Serum Visions, a necessity for Precognition Field that cuts into our discard numbers.

Traverse Shadow is a highly proactive, highly interactive, and highly consistent deck, haunted mostly by its fragility: Snapcaster Mage decks are a nightmare for the strategy, as are Lingering Souls decks, and that's without mentioning hosers like Rest in Peace that can throw Traverse Shadow for a loop single-handedly.

The deck's plan against hate has historically been to splash white for Lingering Souls and Ranger of Eos in the sideboard, but the splash isn't without its costs—our mana's already complicated as things are. Precognition Field gives the deck a potential solution to the problem without forcing a fifth color, as it overwhelms interactive opponents and doubles as a win condition with Lightning Bolt.

Takeaways

I haven't done much testing with this build yet, but my initial findings have been mixed. Lingering Souls is a heck of a card, after all. I do think Precognition Field will see occasional play in the sideboards of such spell-heavy fair decks, though, just as we're likely to see Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bedlam Reveler pop up to fulfill an anti-attrition role—especially as Jund continues to find its footing in the metagame.

More to Come...

Just three cards—Wizard's Lightning, Wizard's Retort, and Precognition Field—combined to provide me with a loaded week of testing already. Dominaria spoilers have only just begun, and I can't wait to see what else Wizards has in store for us. Which cards have you excited? Let me know in the comments.

Insider: Speculating Around Dominaria’s Mox Amber

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The massive Dominaria leak last week has put the new set into the spotlight ahead of schedule, and that provides an opportunity to the Magic speculator. The reveal of the set’s release notes and over half of its cards is a ton of information to unpack at once, but there’s money to be made if we can make sense of it and forecast what it means for the future.

The most important thing to know about Dominaria is that it is a legend-focused set, and will have a legendary card in every pack. This focus makes it a boon for a Commander player, and the set certainly seems to be designed for the casual player in general, with plenty of attention-grabbing cards. The multitude of legends and cards that care about legends, like the new Legendary Sorceries that require a legendary creature or planeswalker in play before they can be cast, add value to existing legends, and make more desirable other cards that care about legends.

The most striking example of a card that will impact demand for past cards is Mox Amber, which is viable past Commander and into Modern, where it joins Mox Opal, which some argue is the most powerful card in the entire format. There has been a ton of discussion about Mox Amber and its potential to ramp in legend-oriented decks, and it seems likely we’ll see some of these decks become competitive. I’m taking special interest in the legends that can enable Mox Amber and work well alongside it, because the casual demand for these cards plus the competitive potential could bring about large price increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of Singularity

One card that has already made a large move on the back of Dominaria’s legendary focus is Leyline of Singularity, which makes all nonland permanents legendary. The card would instantly turn on Mox Amber and is generally just great with cards that care about legends, like Honor-Worn Shaku. I don’t see the card having real competitive legs, but the casual demand is there. It was previously $1 and spiked to $10, but is now available in the $5 range, which smells of a buyout, and the falling price shows that demand isn’t strong. That said, I don’t see it falling too much lower since it has some long-term potential as an old card with no new supply likely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reki, the History of Kamigawa

Another card that has increased is Reki, the History of Kamigawa, which previously saw a spike last year when the Ixalan leak revealed a legendary planeswalker, indicating a rules change that would make all planeswalkers legendary. This was a relevant change for Commander, and its spike was large, from around $1.50 to $5, and eventually to $10 before it slowly fell back to $5, at which point the Dominaria leak spiked it to its current price around $9. The Dominaria leak seems like even more important news for Reki, the History of Kamigawa, and it even now has the potential to make its way to Modern alongside Mox Amber. If a deck with the two cards does break out, then the card could see another spike.

Staples of Mox Amber decks will be low-cost legends, and the list of playable ones is extensive.

The color that has seen the most discussion about its potential with Mox Amber is white, which includes Isamaru, Hound of Konda and Kytheon, Hero of Akros as fantastic enablers that form the core of an aggressive legendary creature deck. Taking this further is Rhys the Redeemed, which isn’t as aggressive but generates nice value, and could help the deck reach the critical mass of legends it needs to function consistently.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kytheon, Hero of Akros

Kytheon, Hero of Akros has fallen to an all-time low since rotating out of Standard, but at $4 its price is strong for a card that really only sees casual play with minor Modern demand. The price actually fell a bit below $4 at the turn of February, to $3.80, and has increased over the past month and a half, so that change in trajectory plus the recent news make it look like a very solid buy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Isamaru, Hound of Konda

Isamaru, Hound of Konda sat at around $3.80 before the news broke, spiked about half a dollar, and has now fallen back to just above its previous price. There’s not much new demand yet, but the card is from one of Modern’s oldest blocks, so I could see a really significant spike it a deck using it breaks out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rhys the Redeemed

Rhys the Redeemed is already quite expensive, being from the infamous Shadowmoor set that has low supply and demands high prices, and it’s a casual star and Commander general. Its price has been on a steady upwards trajectory for years and years. It accelerated this year and broke $19 and now has already reached $22. With things already looking great for the legendary creature, Dominaria could be the catalyst that brings it to new heights as it becomes an even more useful Commander. Any sort of mainstream adoption into a competitive Modern deck would send the price sky high, so I’ll be paying close attention to online results over the coming months to see if the card performs.

The best place for these aggressive white cards is likely in a classic white weenie-style aggressive deck, so other similar staples would be natural inclusions. One example is Eight-and-a-Half-Tails, the legendary creature that protects itself and others, but its Eternal Masters printing has increased supply to the point that I don’t see it ever spiking, although it’s likely to see modest gains.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eiganjo Castle

A card more likely to see a spike, and that is a shoe-in for inclusion into a white weenie deck with Mox Amber, is Eiganjo Castle. It has seen very slow and steady growth for the last four years or so, from $7 to $9, so this sudden large increase in demand is likely to have a big impact on the price, although it will be tempered by the fact that it’s typically no more than a one-of in decks using it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Honor-Worn Shaku

I foresee price increases in all of the Champions of Kamigawa legendary lands, as each one would be an obvious inclusion in any Mox Amber deck in its color. In fact, Kamigawa block is where I see the easiest and most obvious gains in response to Dominaria’s legendary focus, so it’s where I’d scour for deals and cards with the potential to spike. Even if it’s slow and steady demand from the casual crowd, the block is full of gems that may finally have their time to shine, like the aforementioned Honor-Worn Shaku.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Erayo, Soratami Ascendant

A great example is Erayo, Soratami Ascendant, which not only turns on Mox Amber, but greatly benefits from it being a zero-mana play. Players have always worked on breaking Erayo, Soratami Ascendant in decks like Affinity, where it does work alongside Mox Opal, and Mox Amber could be the card that finally brings it over the top. Its current price just above $7 is the lowest it has been in over six years, so a price increase seems overdue.

–Adam

Insider: The Seven Deadly Sins of Selling Cards

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Last week, I heard multiple stories about individuals who broke several of the cardinal rules of selling cards, resulting in negotiating poor deals for their cards.  This got me thinking about the common mistakes I regularly see people making. Today I'd like to go over some of these common mistakes (which we'll call sins) that traders and sellers make when they sit down at the table.

Sin #1: Letting Them Know You're Desperate

We always want to negotiate from a position of power. Is there anything less powerful than telling the person with whom you are negotiating that you are coming at them from a position of weakness?

"I just found out that my brakes are shot and I need some cash for the repairs. Can you take a look and see if there is anything you guys are paying cash on?"

Fail. Or, even worse:

"I need $350.00 to fix my brakes."

"Oh, wow. What a coincidence. I was going to offer exactly $375.00 for the whole collection." What a coincidence, indeed.

While I certainly empathize that life has a funny way of being obnoxious (and expensive), this is not a good play. The statement might as well read: "I'm desperate and will accept any price, no matter how bad."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Desperate Ritual

On the one hand, you'd hope that a buyer will take pity on you because you're down on luck. Unlikely, as card shops, dealers and online stores are business and will take the opportunity to negotiate from a position of power.

Sin #2: Being Overly Excited

Almost as bad as being desperate is being excited. For example: "I've been looking for a Beta Vesuvan Doppelganger forever! Finally somebody has one in the case! Take whatever you want – I must have it!"

This is another newbie mistake. When you come at a potential deal from the perspective that I must have it at any cost, the trade partner is going to notice and raise their price based on your level of enthusiasm. You can be bristling on the inside about a card that you must have, but keep a cool exterior while negotiating strong prices on your wares as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuvan

Sin #3: Letting Them Know They Have No Competition

"I have some cards to sell and I want to get it all done in one stop. Make me a good offer and it's yours."

You'd think this would incentivize a buyer at a store or a booth to hook you up, but it won't. In fact, you're kind of shooting yourself in the foot here, because the  buyer knows that you are not, have not, and will not be shopping around for a good price.

It isn't quite the same as coming across as overly excited or desperate, but the end result is the same: the buyer gets the impression that you are likely to accept most prices regardless of whether they are good or bad. The key to negotiating good prices is to put the buyer into a position where he/she knows you are unlikely to accept below-average buylist prices on singles.

Sin #4: Getting Beat Up on "Played" Cards

Condition didn't used to be as big of an issue as it is now. Back in the day, there were very few online stores compared to brick and mortar stores. In a world of "buying online," where we do not see the items before purchase, the description matters. If a card says NM and a buyer receives SP, they are apt to be upset.

Many dealers put a substantial penalty on cards for not being NM. It is not uncommon for this exact scenario to play out:

"I can do $6 on Hallowed Fountains."

"Sure."

"I can do $3.50 on the played ones."

They've got a little bit of wear but nothing too noticeable. Is there a more annoying scenario when selling?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hallowed Fountain

The buyer already knows that you want to sell them (because you agreed to the NM price) but then offers you a significantly worse price on cards that are not really that played. The most annoying part is that the deduction is often more than the difference between NM and SP cards on the retail end!

As a rule, I always say "no" in this situation. Once you let the buyer do it once, they are likely to do it again and again and again. You've got to use common sense, though – if your cards are chewed up and noticeably played, it is unrealistic to expect to get NM prices. Be weary of people looking to grind off a few bucks, over and over again, because they are taking value from you.

There was one booth I dealt with a year ago that was advertising really great NM prices and then told me they use the Japanese Grading Scale. Cards that I (and other experienced collectors) couldn't find flaws with were taking a 15- to 20-percent hit because they were not NM enough. Be wary – downgrading cards (that shouldn't be downgraded) to pay less is something that buyers sometimes do to gain an edge – so, don't let them!

Sin #5: Buying into Someone's Fake "Too Nice" Act

Is there anything more annoying than sitting down to a trade with somebody who is so absurdly sugary and fake nice who then gets super spikey and cutthroat with you? I know it's obnoxious, but for some reason it happens all the time: a stranger sits down to buy cards and acts like we are best friends and then offers terrible prices, as if the charm was so strong that I wouldn't notice the buyer is coming in 20 percent under the average buylist price on every card!

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Think back to what your teachers and parents taught you when you were five: "Strangers are not your friends." If someone is being way to sugary and sweet, it raises flags for me that something is wrong. Being charismatic and friendly is part of the mark of a good salesman, just be aware that friendliness is part of the job.

Sin #6: Approaching Things Like a Bully

So, you're going to sit down and take charge and tell the buyer what's up? Good luck– it probably won't work out as well as you'd hope. People don't like to be pushed around and told what to do in their own store or booth. Coming on too strong is basically a guarantee that you're about to engage in a battle of wills in a deal that is unlikely to end favorably for you.

Assertive is good, because being a pushover at the buyer table will fetch you lower prices. However, being too strong or aggressive can be just as bad when it comes to getting good prices.

Sin #7: Failure to Project a Calm, Confident, Informed Persona

There are lots of things to avoid doing, but what should one actually do? The key is to project an attitude that shows you know what you are doing and earns the respect of the trade partner.

When I sit down, I try to conduct myself in a manner where the buyer knows I know what my cards are worth and that I will only accept good offers. I'm not desperate. I'm not ranting and raving about how I need that Juzam Djinn. I'm not acting like some fake long lost friend. And, I'm not acting like they suck at their job.

I might say, "I noticed you have solid buylist prices and I have a few things I'm willing to sell. Would you mind taking a look and making offers on stuff where you have above average prices?" It's not a magic trick or cheat code, yet simply carrying oneself with confidence and avoiding obvious pitfalls (the seven deadly sins) goes a long way toward establishing the proper conditions for negotiating favorable deals.

It's not just saying "yes" or "no" to the right offers. When you come to the table with the right attitude, it helps ensure that the buyer or trade partner is more likely to make offers that are better for you. When you make mistakes that lessen your value at the table, it lessens what people will offer for your wares.

Insider: QS Cast Infographics – First 2018 Graphics!

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Insiders, I’m ecstatic to continue our segment: QS Cast Infographics!

Part of our recent growth and additions to the site is the recruitment of some amazing people – in this instance Guillaume (@poppu_mtg) our new data analyst and Diego Fumagalli (Visualizing Magic) our resident graphic artist.

They came together and produced some amazing Infographics that have tracked the QS Cast and provided the numbers, and data, to track both Tarkan and myself since we’ve been duo-hosts. In this update they tracked Episodes 37-74 and provided graphics spanning from Overall to 30, 60, and 90 days.

You can be sure that we will provide monthly updates to reflect recent data. I have the great pleasure of showing these off and providing a statement from Guillaume to give us some context behind these numbers and providing some additional clarity. Let’s see how the QS Cast has fared for this update!

The trends observed over the 2017 cycle of picks are out in full force again in early 2018: Eternal formats are way kinder to our casters than Standard - although some of this can be attributed to the generak sentiment on a stale Standard metagame.

Over the first couple of weeks' worth of picks, the results from Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan allowed our listeners to benefited greatly from the advice dispensed by Chaz, Tarkan and also Rob via his Daily Stock Watch: Collective Brutality (+84%) and Bedlam Reveler (x4-5) both had huge spikes from the time they were first mentioned, thanks in large part to the Mardu Pyromancer archetype bursting into the Modern scene and finishing 2nd at the PT.

Chaz wins the "Rabblemaster Award", given to the card that everyone thought could be good but still jumped to an insane price (8-fold in this instance), with Jadelight Ranger: the card is a real powerhouse in the current metagame, and is featured prominently in the RG Monsters build that had very solid results over the first couple of Team Constructed events on the SCG Tour.

It would also not be a QS Picks Report without Tarkan riding the Reserved List hype to huge gains, and this month's winning choice is the foil printing of Second Chance (+43% in 30 days, holding steady): being part of the original wave of foils back in the Urza Block, these are starting to disappear rather quickly.

The fact that it has the magical words "extra turn" on it kind of acts like catnip to casual players, which doesn't hurt. In parallel, Dire Fleet Daredevil is doing quite a number to Chaz's stock (-62% over 60 days), but there is still hope, as the card is seeing more and more play across all formats as maindeck 2- to 4-of - and the price of foil copies has already rebounded to preorder numbers.

The same case cannot currently be made for Azor, the Lawbringer on Tarkan's side (-74% over 60 days), but it still has a long life in Standard and already fits in some UW Control shells which could gain more support from Dominaria and the Fall set.

The QS Cast had a relatively slow start of the year, with only 6-8 picks over the first 6 weeks of 2018; since then, Chaz and Tarkan have made many more picks so expect a lot more price checks in the coming weeks!

(click to enlarge)

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