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I'll be honest, this is not the article I was planning on for this week. I had planned to start rolling out my Jace, the Mind Sculptor results but I've run into a problem. Last time, a lot of you asked for more in-depth statistical analysis of the results and I decided to oblige. The problem is that traditional tests yielded unusual results. I had significant data that was outside the margin of error or just flat out errors in my returns. The problem was that my data are a binary series that I'm not used to working with. Most stats questions are multiple choice but this was a yes or no question, and that means a different series of tests that I never learned in school. I could have done part one today, but I don't want to leave a gap between the first and second articles. It's taking time for me to learn the proper test procedures, so instead here is another brewing article.
I've been working on making Death and Taxes a thing in Modern for more than a year. I've tried a lot of different brews and versions and while I think the deck is good, it isn't quite good enough. As the cardpool stands right now, I think this style of deck can take you quite far into a tournament on its own merits, but you need to hit the right metagame to actually win the tournament. This is a deck that will consistently win 3.5 games in a MTGO league, but you have to get lucky to actually win the league. The problem is a combination of unpredictability, ineffective mana denial, and a relative lack of power. The tools are all there for the deck to be great, but the Modern metagame is too large for DnT to really tax its opponents. It has to make up the difference with power which isn't quite there.
The Taxman Cometh
I think it important to start off with praise for the deck because there are a lot of positives to Modern Death and Taxes. Yes, I am trying to soften the blow that is coming—why do you ask? Death and Taxes is infinitely customizable, deceptively disruptive, and surprisingly resilient. If you enjoy tuning or metagaming, this is definitely the deck for you. My list is tuned to my current local metagame, but has enough forgiveness built in that I could take it to a more open tournament.
DnT, by David Ernenwein
There is a lot of combo, control, and Tron in my LGS, with Burn and Affinity hanging around the edges. As a result, my deck is a mixture of grindy card advantage and anti-combo cards. It performs well and I've won a lot of packs with the deck. Had I been able to make GP Vancouver I definitely would have played a version of this deck. I would not have played this exact list because it isn't quite where you want to be in an open field, but it would have been very close. The sideboard would have been very different and the maindeck would have had an additional Inspector and Kitchen Finks in place of the Familiars. Interestingly, Jason Simard made Top 8 with a similar list, though he was on an Eldrazi plan. I'd have liked to see his deck in the coverage more, because I found that more than eight colorless lands made for very disappointing mulligans due to lack of white. It obviously worked, but I would have liked to see how.
Tune Your Cards
What my development of this deck has shown is that you can tune it to beat anything. Seriously. Modern white has an incredible depth of targeted hate which will crush its target. Death and Taxes and all its derivatives are infinitely adaptable because their core is extremely flexible. Most decks have an immutable core group of cards that define the deck, but for DnT that's really just Flickerwisp and Ghost Quarter. You don't even need a full set of either. This allows you to build and tune to your heart's content around interactive creatures and mana denial. This is the ultimate tuner's deck. Do you want to be White Skies? Add in Vryn Wingmare, Serra Avenger, and Kor Skyfisher. Lots of faster aggro? Wall of Omens and Archangel of Tithes. Combo a problem? Aegis of the Gods, True Believer and Eidolon of Rhetoric. Anything is possible.
Those are just the core threats and disruption. The utility creatures and spells can really amplify your gameplan. If you are really dedicated to the archetype, you can absolutely play every week with an entirely new configuration and do well, both because of your opponent's confusion and the inherent power of correctly aligned, specialized disruption. As an example, here are a few utility cards I've run in my mono-white deck:
- Aven Mindcensor: The original library tax, I have run the Aven to really punish Chord decks. The dream is always to make them whiff with tutors or fetchlands, but in my experience they find something often enough that you should content yourself just making it worse rather than non-functional. Leonin Arbiter is generally better both in terms of disruption and your curve, but if you want to run a tutoring package of any kind yourself, you want to swap it for Aven.
- Mutavault: The best creature-land since Mishra's Factory is still excellent against control. I was also running this as an additional way to turn on Eldrazi Displacer. It does exactly what you want, but I'm off it now because without Eldrazi Temple the Displacer package is woeful, and I was having trouble getting enough colored sources to cast my spells.
- Phyrexian Revoker: During a time when Affinity and Ad Nauseam were rampant this card was an all-star. Pithing Needle is more powerful and often unkillable, but shutting down mana abilities is very big game. In general this is too vulnerable to see play, but in a combo-heavy meta it is crushingly potent.
- Samurai of the Pale Curtain: Run as maindeck Dredge hate pre-banning, Samurai is not exactly backbreaking but it is exactly what you want. The problem with Dredge is its recursive creatures will power through yours eventually. Samurai ensures that when they die, they stay dead. It's also randomly good against Life from the Loam.
Thalia, Heretic Cathar: While not bad against hasty creatures, it is slow. I ran this card as additional Tron disruption. You often just need an extra turn or two to get there and new Thalia is excellent at the job. She just doesn't do enough elsewhere, and sits in a very crowded spot on the curve, so she was cut.- Warping Wail: Often a sideboard card, when control was very heavy it was moved to the mainboard. The sheer versatility of this spell is shocking and you can make excellent use of every mode. My favorite is countering sweepers and Ancestral Vision. However, it isn't quite powerful enough to see consistent play, especially around instant-based combo decks.
- Weathered Wayfarer: A few months ago I mentioned this card, and it is actually very good in the right circumstances. During particularly Tron-heavy weeks this card was an absolute beating, enabling me to completely cripple their mana for the entire game. The main problem with the card, and why it is currently cut, is that it was easy to cripple your own development as well. Searching every turn costs mana and using your land as a spell stunts your mana development too. Games with Wayfarer and no Vial are surprisingly hard to win. Still, when things go your way this card very nearly wins the game on its own against big-mana decks. It was also a nonbo with Leonin Arbiter, so it is best to cut him for Aven Mindcensor. I also confess to going way too deep with this card—Mouth of Ronom deep. It was not pretty.
This is just a small sample of cards I've tried. Like I said, the cards are there for you to find the configuration that works for the metagame you expect.
Tune Your Deck
All of that is just what you can do with mono-white. Once you start adding in colors the customization never stops, and matchups change dramatically. I consider mono-white DnT to be the "average" deck in the family. Its good matchups are rarely better than 60% and its bad ones are around 45%. I consider Affinity, Burn, and the many iterations of Tron and Valakut to be good matchups, Fair decks like BGx and combo decks to be even, and creature decks like Merfolk to be bad matchups. I'll be using this as a baseline to talk about the variations.
- GW Hatebears: The most common version, GW adds some acceleration from Noble Hierarch to much harder-to-answer threats like Loxodon Smiter and Voice of Resurgence. As a result this deck is far more powerful against the fair decks than the other versions, with Renegade Rallier supercharging the grind plan. Versions with Kitchen Finks and Gavony Township are also significantly better against creature decks. However, GW usually runs less mana disruption than mono-white and so is worse against big-mana and combo decks.
BW Hatebears/Eldrazi and Taxes: These days the main distinction is whether they run the Eldrazi or not, the manabase is almost the same and they run most of the same cards. These decks have more hand disruption like Tidehollow Sculler, Thought-Knot Seer, and Sin Collector, which really boosts them over control and combo decks. Eldrazi is also better against creatures thanks to Wasteland Strangler. However, their painful mana makes them more vulnerable to Burn and Affinity. They also feel more clunky than other versions because the decks have more reliance on internal synergies, like Sculler and Strangler, than other versions. When things come together the deck will crush your soul. When it doesn't the decks clunks like an unbalanced washing machine. They are also very vulnerable to Blood Moon.- UW Spirits and Taxes: Using the best creatures from both Spirit decks and DnT, this deck plays additional disruptive creatures and counterspells, making it a nightmare for Tron, combo, and control. DnT can lose to Tron when they draw well, but UW needs to fall apart to lose. Seriously, it is a fantastic matchup. The problem is that your creatures are far less impressive than in DnT, so your creature and GBx matchups are much worse. Even Reflector Mage only does so much.
- Boros Taxes: I have been told this deck built, around Blood Moon and Magus of the Moon, exists, though I've never actually seen it in person. This deck is phenomenal against decks where Blood Moon is good and really subpar against everything else.
The Diversity Problem
Of course, the ability to customize your deck comes at a price. The individual taxes and lock pieces aren't that powerful on their own, and if you miss your target you'll be very behind. Modern is not Legacy and this means that DnT will need to sit in the lower tiers for the time being. Eldrazi and Taxes has done better than other versions thanks to the power of the Eldrazi, but it still sits in the middle of Tier 2. The problem is that Modern is in many ways more healthy than Legacy in terms of diversity and when you couple that with weaker disruption there is a problem.
When you walk into a Legacy tournament you know that no less than half the room will be playing Brainstorm and/or Deathrite Shaman. These cards create predictable restrictions on deckbuilding. As a result, Legacy DnT can be built with these two cards in mind. The narrowed focus allows you to play more targeted disruption and more effectively function as a Prison/Aggro deck. Add to that the greater power of Wasteland and Rishadan Port and you have a top-tier deck.
That really isn't possible in Modern. The only constant among decks are fetchlands, and there is only so much you can do to target those. Thalia is just less powerful when everyone isn't relying on one-mana cantrips. As a result Modern decks have far greater diversity in their composition than Legacy's. This makes it easier to insulate yourself from hate splash damage. To make up for this weaker disruption, you need to be more powerful. This either means better threats or a faster clock, but that isn't really possible for Modern white. We have good, cheap creatures and good Angels, but they're weak in the Modern context. This can leave the deck underpowered and struggling when you miss your metagame projection.
What It Needs
To really move up the tiers, DnT either needs the format to be more restrictive, so it can target decks more easily, or it needs better win conditions. The former is undesirable and unlikely to occur, so that leaves us hoping for a new creature. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has sometimes been that threat, but he's poor in enough matchups that I'd keep him in the sideboard. My experience suggests that we need a more resilient disruptive three-drop that flies. Mindcensor and Wingmare's stats are too low, but another three-power flier like Flickerwisp would likely do the trick. There are some three-drop 3/xs already, but they don't really do anything other than beat. We need something disruptive. Alternatively, seeing protection return could also work.
There is belief that Stoneforge Mystic is what the deck really wants, and I can see why people think that. It is a cornerstone of the Legacy version and it is cheap and powerful. I'm not convinced that it is an acceptable Modern card, and I also don't think that current DnT wants it. It competes in the same slot as Arbiter and the two don't play well together. Lacking access to Wasteland, a lot of the appeal of DnT lies in Arbiter. Stoneforge may well be fine in the deck, but I don't think it automatically makes the deck better. You have to readjust and rebuild around the card.
It Is Inevitable
So there you have it, my definitive take on Death and Taxes. It is a good deck, I like it, and if you enjoy customizing and tuning your deck so will you. You just have to understand that while you will often go deep with the deck, you may not be able to close the event. Time and new cards will tell.
Hopefully I will have the preliminary analysis done and off for confirmation and review next week, so that I can start sharing my Jace results. Regardless of what you think about the card, you will be surprised by my results.
As a result this deck has shifted to a different spot on the metagame wheel, downplaying its gotcha! and combo dimensions in favor of a grindier, more late-game-focused approach. If you haven't had the joy of playing with or against this strategy yet, consider that mandatory homework for any upcoming major tournament. This deck is resilient and more than capable of winning through disruption, but it can also generate explosive kills from out of nowhere, akin to Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod decks of yore.
BGx decks have always competed among each other for superior standing, and the printing of Fatal Push has given the proponents of Lingering Souls and Siege Rhino yet another mechanism to compensate for a lack of access to Lightning Bolt. This may be accentuated by additional pressure in the form of Grixis and Esper control strategies—all in all, Fatal Push means Jund is no longer unique in its ability to reliably and efficiently kill creatures as early as turn one with no downside.
I hope to expand this customizability in the future, but for now let's look at how the Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll bans have changed Modern.
I've speculated elsewhere about these decks' positioning in the post-ban environment—regardless of the reason, I predict that Infect and Dredge are likely to stay Tier 2 for the foreseeable future. If we consider that some people may be holding onto these decks out of stubbornness or due to card availability, it seems safe to say they're not good choices at the moment.
And while, nominally, Death's Shadow is still kicking it at the top tables, the new deck isn't as explosive or punishing. All of this gives durdlier decks an opening. Finally, it should be noted that a reasonable answer to the rise in presence of Fatal Push is to just cast five- and six-drops. Outside of Primeval Titan and Wurmcoil Engine, there are precious few playable creatures at this spot on the curve—and due to their unique mechanics, Eldrazi can be accelerated out more easily than most.
This gels with the idea that Walking Ballista is specifically responsible. The growth of Bant Eldrazi, on the other hand, has slowed a little.
Bushwhacker Zoo makes a triumphant return on the back of revolt. Bushwhacker Zoo is back to Tier 2 after several months wavering between no ranking and Tier 3, and it's received a little bit of a face lift. Some outlets have called this deck "Revolt Zoo," for the prominent use it makes of the new mechanic out of Aether Revolt. Burning-Tree Emissary was always a central component of this deck's plan, and Hidden Herbalists just ensures it's that much more likely to spew its hand out in the early game. The archetype also gained access to the newest Kird Ape impersonator, Narnam Renegade. While it will be harder to turn on to full power than the Monkey, Renegade gets to attack into anything, Goyfs and Thought-Knot Seers included. It also offers a deck like Bushwhacker Zoo a rare defensive tool against the likes of Death's Shadow when it falls behind. Builds are still pretty non-standard (some have even included copies of Greenwheel Liberator), so it's anyone's guess where this archetype goes from here.
Gifts Storm arrives in full glory. Just when you thought the 
Jeskai Control supplants UW Control. The only archetype to drop entirely off of Tier 2 this month was UW Control/Midrange. I think it's unlikely a coincidence that Jeskai Control came back in the same month, claiming about the same amount of metagame share as UW last month (2.1% to 1.9%, respectively). I don't see a compelling reason why these would have switched suddenly, and I'm inclined to chalk it up to what's en vogue. Jeskai Control this month encompasses three different builds that found more or less equal representation: Jeskai Nahiri, Jeskai Saheeli, and more traditional spell-based Jeskai Control. A fourth type, Kiki-Jiki decks, appeared here and there. More people are certainly trying out the Saheeli Rai/Felidar Guardian combo in Modern these days, but that only accounts for one part of the deck's gains, and doesn't really explain why UW would be down.
As always, the numbers near the bottom of the metagame standings are always based on a relatively small n, but the shakeups here are pretty extensive nonetheless.
Ponza is an honest-to-god, full-on land destruction deck that complements Blood Moon with targeted spells like Mwonvuli Acid-Moss and actual Stone Rain to attack a player's mana base directly. This deck has benefited from the printing of Chandra, Torch of Defiance, which provides another sticky threat to ramp into and mitigate flood. But I'm not gonna lie—I don't see this deck putting up these numbers in the kind of environment dominated by Infect, Dredge, Death's Shadow Zoo, and the other explosive linear decks that characterized the pre-banning Modern.
Brewing Temur Shadow
taking hits from opposing creatures while Delver clocked in the air instead of cycling Wraith to enable earlier Shadows.
copies each of Tarfire and Fatal Push fill out Temur Shadow's removal suite, giving it 8 high-impact, one-mana kill spells.
Kolaghan's Command is a mainboard answer to problematic artifacts like Chalice of the Void or Ensnaring Bridge. It also gives us a laudable grinding plan with Snapcaster Mage.
Stomping Ground enables Traverse the Ulvenwald as an early mana fixer. An opener with Traverse, a fetch, and no other lands asks us to fetch Ground and tutor either Island or Swamp depending on the cards in our hand. If we won't need red for a few turns, fetching Tomb is also an option, meaning fetch plus Traverse is guaranteed to yield three colors of our choice (so long as green is one of them). Beyond that opening play, all of our fetchlands find Overgrown Tomb, Stomping Ground, and Steam Vents, so getting our fourth color becomes as simple as drawing any fetch.
Fetchlands are critical to Temur Shadow. Sure, they synergize with Goyf, Bauble, and even Serum Visions, but that's not all. Running as many as possible gives us an edge in the early game by helping us hit the right colors, and one in the late game by making Death's Shadow that much more menacing.
My advice to those struggling with the mana is to pay close attention to the lands they fetch and the problems they encounter, and to start planning their mana one or two turns ahead. Doing so will reveal the benefit of unintuitive available options. Stuff like burning a turn-two Traverse on Island to make a turn-four land drop, by which time we'll be able to commit a 4/4 Shadow and represent Snap-Stubborn (as opposed to allowing that extra G on turn two to go unused). Or using a valuable fetch like Wooded Foothills to get Breeding Pool instead of a less valuable one like Bloodstained Mire (since removing Pool from the deck in fact makes Mire more valuable than Foothills). Or getting Blood Crypt as a first black source with an opener full of black spells (in case we draw Misty Rainforest as our third land and need access to Overgrown Tomb). Practice makes perfect; don't get discouraged, and don't fall back on Watery Grave!
Collective Brutalityis a highly flexible card that wrecks Burn and is great in Delver mirrors. It's also easy to board in for less effective cards depending on the matchup.
Death's Shadow has caused quite an issue for decks that rely on Lightning Bolt as supplemental removal. And the fact that we’re seeing around double the copies of Tarmogoyf we’re used to means that Spell Snare and a prayer aren't enough for Ux decks to rely on anymore. No matter what archetype you’re playing, if you’re in the business of interaction and you’re not playing black, you’re almost assuredly playing white.
You haven’t lived until you've Condemned an opposing attacking Tarmogoyf and kill their two attacking 3/3 or 5/5 Death's Shadows.
I’ve been playing a one-of Jace in my version of Grixis Control, stolen shamelessly from a few other lists in the net, and I’ve been loving it. “Big Jace” reminds me of the old UR Twin days, where the subgame was just, “live to cast Keranos, God of Storms,” and cackle wildly at all the value.
Speaking of which, one of my all-time favorite white cards is currently solid against a large percentage of the field. You don’t have to be a control deck to play this card, and you don’t have to be playing against an aggro deck. Three 1/1s against Jund keeps Tarmogoyf at bay for quite a while, and protection against Liliana of the Veil can keep our big guy safe from her -2. And then, of course, there’s Burn, Affinity, Death’s Shadow, and Grixis Delver. Modern is back to Aggro/Big Mana/Midrange/Fast Combo in relative order of representation, so hitting two out of the top three is not bad value for our sideboard.
I’ve long been a hater of this card, in control decks at least, as it is card disadvantage that rarely trades with a card out of our opponent’s hand. Nevertheless, there exists no better way to fight both Death’s Shadow and Tron strategies, which are both at an all-time high right now. Tron decks are the biggest challenge for Grixis specifically right now, and I went from three copies to zero, to two, and now I’m back to three again. Dredge is still floating around, and even if we’re not playing control, other people are, and removing Snapcaster Mage targets (or just taking care of Snapcaster Mage itself) is a great way to fight through their grind.
When Lightning Bolt isn’t that great anymore, and Fatal Push is almost universally better than Terminate, and Lingering Souls is the spicy choice against grindy decks postboard, it stands to reason that just playing all these cards ourselves is right where we want to be. Were it not for Kolaghan's Command giving points to Jund in just about every matchup, Abzan would be the clear BGx midrange deck of choice in Modern today. Think about that: Abzan, not Jund, as the midrange deck of choice in Modern. Has that happened ever? Maybe immediately after the banning of Bloodbraid Elf, but definitely not for long. We’re not there yet, but once I put down my Grixis Control testing, the next archetype I’m picking up is definitely Abzan Midrange. It’s nowhere near the best deck, but it seems to have no glaring weaknesses currently and is poised to take advantage of most of the risers on this list.
Say that sentence out loud and you start to wonder if Death’s Shadow is too strong for the format, but that’s outside the scope of this article. Still, Mana Leak & Co. are at an all-time low, even with Ancestral Vision on the rise. Vision in the format normally means Remand is better than ever, but in no matchup do I want to be casting that spell, unless it’s in response to flashbacked Lingering Souls. Which, of course, is another reason why counterspells are bad right now.
Compare this to aggressive decks. If you want to stop an aggressive deck it takes a lot more work, Ensnaring Bridge notwithstanding. As long as aggressive decks have a single threat in play, they are executing their game plan. (Whether this would actually translate into a win is another matter entirely.) Interaction and disruption are not particularly harmful to aggressive decks because their cards are interchangeable and redundant. So long as the aggro player does not lose too many resources to sweepers or similar card-advantage spells, it can continue to play the game with a reasonable expectation of victory, no matter how many of its cards trade with their opponent's cards. It only cares when it can no longer attack because it is either outclassed or out of spells.
A lot of the criticism of Modern stems from the perceived lack of interaction and overabundance of aggressive decks. Previous metagame updates have shown the only consistently Tier 1 interactive deck has been Jund. So what happens when we add unfair combo? Consider a metagame that is made up of Jund, Infect, Burn, GR Tron, Bant Eldrazi, and Abzan Company. This metagame has one true interactive Fair deck, three uninteractive aggressive decks, a Ramp deck, and a Fair Combo. Lets throw Cheeri0s into the mix and pretend it is Tier 1. In the original metagame, the non-Jund decks seek to execute their gameplans as quickly as possible while Jund tries to hold them off. Whoever among the non-Jund executes their plan first will win, matchups depending. Jund will win when it cripples the initial attacks of the aggressive decks and then out-resources them going long.
Cheeri0s disrupts this equilibrium. The non-Jund decks run a bare minimum, if any, of relevant interaction. Infect is the only deck with a realistic chance to win on turn three, which is when Cheer0s is supposed to go off, so it will get some wins through racing. It is possible, if very unlikely, that Abzan Company will execute its infinite combo on turn three and so not lose as well. The other non-Jund decks will be severely impacted. They cannot race the combo and cannot reliably disrupt the combo. At most those decks have 8 disruption spells, and they may not actually work in certain circumstances. As a result their share of the metagame will decrease. Jund meanwhile, which plays as many as 20 pieces of relevant disruption in discard spells and cheap removal, will reliably stop the combo and beat Cheerios. Jund's share rises and incentivizes Tron and Eldazi to return.
I offer the Legacy metagame as an example of how this works. Aggro decks as most formats understand them are not present in Legacy. For the most part all that is present are aggro-control and tempo decks. Most of these are Delver variants, and Delver pilots will pontificate at length about how their decks are not aggressive decks. There are no Zoo or Affinity decks, no true aggro. Colorless Eldrazi and Death & Taxes are close, but both are closer to Prison/Tempo hybrids than linear aggro. In fact, looking at 
I believe that the presence of very fast, but fragile, combo decks has actually slowed Legacy down significantly. An "all-in" deck like Affinity cannot afford to dedicate enough slots to interaction to not just lose to combo and it is incapable of racing them. Storm and Belcher can win on the first turn, sometimes through a Force. The threat of such kills requires most decks to run Force. Once you are playing Force, you have to fill your deck with sufficient cards to turn Force on, which leads you to playing the cantrips, which leads to a much slower game. Decks with Prison elements are an exception to this, but the slot commitment necessary for their taxes and lock pieces leave little room for fast kills. Because there are combos too fast to race, Legacy is a slow format.
It also plays creature interaction in the form of Goblins like Stingscourger. The result is that Goblins can grind harder than nearly every deck. If you want to really embarrass Miracles, play Grenzo, Dungeon Warden and actively punish Terminus. You cannot grind with Goblins—you have to race them, and that is hard for many decks.
