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The Fair Decks: A Beginner’s Guide

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For the first time this year, welcome to The Beginner's Guide! For those new to this series, I am trying to simplify Modern to make it more approachable and comprehensible for those players new to the format. Previously I've covered sideboarding strategies, deck diversity, and an in-depth look at the aggressive strategies. Today, it's time to take on the fair decks.

This article has been both incredibly easy and unexpectedly hard to conceptualize and write. On the one hand, the decks and strategy that I will be discussing are fairly obvious. Even if you've never heard them called under the fair moniker, I think everyone will agree with how they're categorized. On the other, actually defining my terms so that the categorization makes sense has been far more difficult. The terms fair and unfair are loaded and there's a lot of disagreement about their meaning, even without my additional wrinkle of "fair" (pseudo-fair) decks.

I've defined the terms before, but I think an additional articulation is in order for this piece. To wit, fair decks are not the only ones playing fair Magic. It's that their defining strategy is inescapably fair. Yes, I will discuss this at great length. As always, remember that this is intended as an intro to the deck archetype and by necessity I will be simplifying things and skipping over some nuance that more experienced pilots may find critical. I'm trying not to be overwhelming.

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What is a Fair Deck?

My definition of fair is playing by the rules of Magic: one land drop and one card per turn, pay the mana cost of your spells, etc. "The game of Magic as Richard Garfield intended" is a common phrase to describe fairness, and while the sentiment is good it is not entirely accurate. He is the man who made Time Vault and is on record saying it was designed to combo with Twiddle. I think it is more accurate to say it is Magic as Wizards R&D intends in Standard. As a result, the fair decks will be the most familiar and approachable to Standard converts.

Wizards has said that they want Magic to be about creature combat and planeswalkers. As a result, Standard has seen a proliferation of midrange decks, beginning with Jund and continuing to current Standard's GB Delirium. They play powerful midlevel threats and a large number of answers. Their main strategic intent is to answer, then invalidate, any faster deck's clock, while overwhelming the answers of slower decks. In current Standard, Delirium will play Grim Flayer, Fatal Push[mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Transgress the Mind. Against an aggressive deck like Vehicles, you will use Push to answer their early threats, Transgress to strip their planeswalkers or cars, and then a delirious Flayer will shut down the smaller creatures and eventually beat down for the win. Against Jeskai Saheeli, you'll play the Flayer early to provide pressure, Transgress to protect it from sorcery-speed removal or to strip card advantage, and Push to protect against the combo. Same cards, different roles.

This versatility and adaptability are the defining features of fair decks in both Standard and Modern. Modern BGx has better cards than Standard BGx, but the play pattern is exactly the same: determine Who's the Beatdown, assume that role, and win through attrition and superior card quality or quantity. Their cards are rarely dead in any matchup and are positioned to trade up in terms of value, mana, or card advantage. They look like piles of good cards, and they are, but they're more than the sum of their parts. As an analogy, the fair decks are the diesel trucks of Magic. They don't look impressive and aren't particularly fast, but they're reliable and indestructible.

Strengths and Weaknesses

This reliability is the greatest strength of the archetype. These decks have play against almost everything and very few matchups are truly unwinnable. They have high card power and are playing the abstractly best cards in their color combinations. As a result they have very few dead cards in any matchup. Cards may not be optimal by any stretch, but they're very rarely actually worthless. They also have very solid mana with a lot of utility lands to make flood less of a problem. They're just good, reliable decks.

This also means that there are very few ways to effectively target them. They have answers for almost everything and are so redundant and fair that it's hard to target them with hate. You can harm them certainly, as I will detail later, but there really aren't any I-win buttons against fair decks. You can beat at them all you want, but just like a diesel truck as long as it has fuel in the tank it will keep running.

This leads us to what is both a great strength and weakness of the archetype. They're very "average" decks. Jund has been called a 50% deck, in that its win percentage is 50% against everything. While not strictly true, it is the right sentiment. These decks have play against everything, but they're never spectacular against anything. Their good matchups are rarely more than 55%, but their bad matchups are rarely worse than 45%. You're unlikely to "just lose" to anything, but you may really need to work for your wins. Experience is the greatest factor in your actual win percentage with these decks.

Experience is also at play in the archetypes biggest weakness: poor construction. These decks can be built to have play against everything, or be really strong against a few things. Knowing when which is correct, or even recognizing when you are playing one version or the other, is a skill in itself. The presence of Grim Flayer in Jund may subtly change your positioning against the field such that your previously correct lines aren't anymore. There's a lot of opportunity for customization with these decks, which can either improve your deck or ruin it, and you may not know what you've done until you're scrubbing out of the tournament. Newcomers should stick to the established decks and not go exploring until they have really learned their deck.

Playing Fairly

I should stress that the defining characteristic of the fair decks is their gameplan, not their win condition. If your intention is to use your cards to trade with your opponent's cards until they can't trade anymore and then win, you're a fair deck. Your actual win condition will vary. For this reason, Modern's midrange and control decks all fall under the fair banner. Jeskai and newcomer Esper Control have effectively the same gameplan as Jund. Similarly, Grixis Midrange/Control may accelerate out its win conditions with delve, but in total their gameplan is exactly the same. All fair decks want to trade their cards for your cards until you run out of meaningful cards and then they win.

In general, a fair deck pilot should be seeking to maximize their cards' impact and efficiency. You are trading your cards with your opponent, so you want to trade up as much as possible. This can be through card advantage (trading a Kolaghan's Command for Cranial Plating and Vault Skirge), mana advantage (trading a Spell Snare for Blighted Agent) or through quality advantage (trading a Mana Leak for Tarmogoyf). Your cards are generally more individually powerful than your opponent's, so you are looking to wield them as effectively as possible.

It is also important to stress the importance of role evaluation when you're a fair deck because it informs when and how you are trading your cards. This is easier for some decks and matchups than others. Control decks will only diverge from the control role when facing fast combo, for example. When a fair deck is the control, they are looking to stay alive long enough for their superior card power to cancel their opponent's tempo advantage. As a result they should be trading to maximize their time advantage. It is okay to get less than the maximum impact in terms of quality, mana, or card advantage, as long as it keeps you alive. For example, it is correct for Jeskai to play Lightning Bolt at sorcery speed if they can play around Infect's pump spells. Jund will willingly trade Terminate down for Goblin Guide. You have power to spare in these situations, so you can afford a little inefficiency to let it catch up.

When fair decks are the beatdown they are looking to minimize the impact of the opponent's answers and/or constrict their time advantage. This requires them to establish their clocks, even if it isn't the best use of their cards, and trade based on protecting or establishing that clock. Jeskai is forced to play Snapcaster Mage as an Ambush Viper against Ad Nauseam to establish some kind of clock. Jund would really like to trade Thoughtseize for Elspeth, Sun's Champion, but it is usually better to take Mana Leak so that they can stick a Tarmogoyf or Liliana. You want to force them to use the least efficient answers as possible and ideally use more than one to kill your threats. Remember, a fair deck is trying to win an attrition war.

Beating the Fair Decks

If you want to beat a fair deck, you do not want to fight on their terms. It's hard to win. These decks are set up to win the attrition fight game one, and unless you are another fair deck you will struggle. Jeskai beats a lot of aggressive creature decks handily game one thanks to overwhelming amounts of spot removal. They simply cannot establish their clocks in the face of redundant Bolts. Merfolk is the exception, because so many of its threats are must-answer, it has Silvergill Adept which replaces itself, and Master of Waves which is hard to remove and generates many threats. It is able to win the attrition fight thanks to threat density and cantrips. Similarly, when combo decks are forced to actually fight through walls of discard from Jund they struggle to find the resources they need to win.

It is better to get under or go over them. Gotcha! decks are fast enough that they can deploy their clocks and protection before fair decks can play enough answers. Tron has always been good against these strategies because its threats mostly ignore fair answers and it has a huge mana advantage that can overwhelm them on power. You want to either end the game before they can deploy their superior power, or just overpower them.

If you have to fight along the fair axis and will have to play the attrition game, you do have options. The Merfolk strategy of relying on superior threat density is perfectly legitimate and effective, if somewhat risky. Simply playing more threats than the opponent can answer forces them into racing situations, which they're rarely well suited for. The problem is that if the opponent has a strong independent source of card advantage, you may never run them out of resources and get snowed under. Merfolk can easily beat Jund in an attrition fight when it doesn't stick Dark Confidant. If Bob does hit then that will not work as Jund will never run out of answers. Going wide quickly can fight this problem, which is why BW Tokens has historically been advantaged against fair decks.

Another option is to out-fair the fair decks. This means having superior threats or card advantage. Bringing in Painful Truths in the BGx mirror is very strong, as is Ancestral Vision against BGx. You either want threats that they cannot interact with, like Thrun, the Last Troll, or to simply snow them under with cards. If you're intending to trade cards for cards, then you will win if you have something they cannot trade for, or more cards than them. Simple and effective.

Finally, an underappreciated method is resource denial. If you take away the means for them to play their cards, they cannot win quickly enough to "get under" your denial. Historically this has taken the form of land destruction to keep control decks from deploying their spells, but it can also be shutting off some other avenue of advantage. Grixis leans heavily on its graveyard both as a source of card advantage and as a mana pool for delve spells. Shutting off access to that resource with Rest in Peace can severely cripple them. Similarly, GBx depends on targeted discard to interact and fuel their Tarmogoyfs. Leyline of Sanctity can potentially win the game against them if you're a combo deck. You can win the fair game against fair decks if you want to, but I think it is better to invalidate some part of their gameplan instead.

To Be Fair

Fair decks are not the most impressive decks in Modern, but they do rack up wins. Card power coupled with redundancy and resilience just get there more often than you might think. There is a very good reason that Jund is and has always been a Tier 1 deck. However, these decks require a lot of dedication and practice to really unlock their power. When you can beat everything, you have to know how to prepare for everything. Standard may prepare new players for this style of deck more than the others, but that does not mean that they can just jump in and expect to win. This is Modern, and while card power goes a long way, knowing how to employ it is far more important.

Insider: Shifting from Nonfoils to Foils

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I have been crushing it lately with MTG finance. I usually don’t pat myself on the back much, but after selling most of my collection in Louisville a few weeks ago it has become much easier to organize and manage my collection. As a result, I have kept good track of prices for cards in my speculation binder, opportunistically selling things as they jump in price. This, combined with the fact that I firmly believe MTG has been rekindled at least for the short term, has really buoyed my optimism.

Sadly, this doesn’t guarantee I am rolling in profits. I’m not losing money, to be fair, but I haven’t exactly made a “killing” beyond my Beck // Call purchase a while back. I’ll explain with an example.

This story will probably sound all too familiar.

Recently I noticed the rapid rise in Inexorable Tide, and I was fortunate enough to grab two playsets from eBay for a total of around $10 shipped. Within days these spiked on TCG Player to around $4 a copy. Hooray!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inexorable Tide

You may assume that if they jumped to four bucks a copy and I had eight of them, I should have gotten $32 for my trouble, a net gain of $22. Sadly, this assumption has many flaws. First, there’s the fees and shipping: 10% to eBay, about 3% to PayPal, and another $0.70 for the non-machinable stamp.

Okay, so let’s subtract those out: $32 - 13% - $0.70 = $27. So I made $17 in profits, right? Not exactly…

You see, these are hot in Commander right now. The recent printing of the Commander 2016 Atraxa deck has driven a bunch of “counters matter” cards significantly higher, Inexorable Tide being one of them. The problem with this being a Commander card is that Commander players are the ones buying them. You know how many copies they want? One. For their Atraxa deck. And not a single copy more. In fact I had one person purchase a copy from me who asked immediately afterwards if they could cancel their order since they discovered they had a copy already somewhere else.

So now I’m selling these one at a time, paying the $0.70 in shipping for every sale. At this point I should also mention that PayPal’s fee structure includes a flat $0.30 plus their percentage—it’s negligible when dealing in larger numbers, but in reality I need to factor that in when calculating profits. So now we have:

$4 - 13% - $0.70 - $0.30 = $2.48 * 8 copies = $19.84. So that brings me to $9.84 in profits? Close, but still not there yet. You see, even though TCG mid was in the $4 range, I’m not a store who can sell at those prices. I need to be competitive to the market, which means I had to price my copies near the market lows, or roughly $3.30. So let’s do this calculation one last time:

$3.30 - 13% - $0.70 - $0.30 = $1.87 * 8 copies = $14.97. Net profit: about five bucks.

Tell Us Something We Don’t Know

When I cashed out of my Beck // Calls, I was celebrating every time I heard that cash register sound from my phone. Each time it meant a couple bucks more in profit as playset by playset sold.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Beck // Call

You may ask if the five dollar profit I made on Inexorable Tides was also worth it. I had to spend time writing up envelopes, re-packaging these cards into top loaders one at a time, and shipping them all out. The short answer: no. Unless I can learn from this.

It turns out I did learn a few things from this experience, and I would like to relay these tidbits to you the readers so you can hopefully avoid my pitfall in the future.

  1. If you’re buying cards in the $0 - $2 range with the hopes of selling out around $3 - $5, make sure you are able to sell in playsets. When Beck // Call spiked from $0.50 to $2.50 I was able to make significantly more profit because I could sell four at a time. This cuts back big-time on shipping costs (not to mention time investment).
  2. If you’re going to speculate on a card that is played as a one-of in Commander, be prepared to sell these cards one at a time. When my Inexorable Tides first came in the mail, I actually listed them as playsets for around $9 a set. None of them sold, even though the average price per card would have been discounted by about 30%. Players only wanted their one copy, which means my eight copies sold one at a time with no exception.
  3. If you have to speculate on a Commander card knowing you’re stuck selling one at a time, make sure it’ll be worth your while.

It’s this third observation that I want to expand upon from here.

Make It Worthwhile

This was the most valuable takeaway I had from my Inexorable Tide experience. Just because a card is jumping doesn’t necessarily mean you can make worthwhile profit on it. I sometimes joke that, “profit is profit,” and that, “no one ever went bankrupt selling for a profit.” That may be mathematically true, but a corollary of these idioms would probably be, “many people waste time chasing nickels and dimes.”

The $1 to $4 spike is probably one of the most deceptive spikes in all of MTG finance. What seems like a triple- or quadruple-up ends up leading to profits equivalent to the change buried in your couch. Luckily, I have some ideas for how to beat this pitfall.

First and foremost, consider foils when speculating on Commander singles. While nonfoil Inexorable Tides jumped from $1 to $4, the foil copies moved from around $2 to $15! The percentage gain was larger and it’s way more worthwhile to ship a $15 card than to ship a $4 card. Foils also have the added bonus of being less prone to reprint damage in sets that don’t include foils, such as the Commander series.

What are some foils worth picking up, especially in lieu of their non-foil equivalent? One of my favorites is Hardened Scales.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hardened Scales

When I search this card on EDH REC, I see it's in 3,944 decks, which is roughly 3.6% of all decks submitted. That’s nothing to sneeze at! What’s more, the card is extremely versatile and fits in over a dozen decks where the commander cares about +1/+1 counters. The most frequently played commander where Hardened Scales is relevant? Atraxa!

Non-foil and foil copies alike have both turned a corner recently, moving from all-time lows for the first time in months. Nonfoils are around $1.30 while foils are in the $3 to $4 range. Sound familiar?

With its relatively recent printing, I don’t see nonfoil copies spiking to $4 like Inexorable Tide did. But I do see foils jumping, and when they do they should settle above $10. Sure, you could buy 50 nonfoil copies and wait patiently to sell them one at a time in the $2-$3 range a few months from now. Or you could pick up foils and pick up a larger movement that is far more worth your time.

Another foil I would be interested in is Lux Cannon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lux Cannon

Sadly, I fear this ship has already sailed. As I write this article, I am now realizing that the nonfoils jumped from $3 to $5 while foils moved from $5 to $15. Looks like this will be another case where I miss out on worthwhile profits because I played the nonfoils instead of the foils. I’m still learning.

One foil I won’t miss out on is Temple Bell, because I already have a few in my binder.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple Bell

This card-drawing machine is also played in over 3,000 decks on EDH REC. The most popular ones are Nekusar, Kynaios, and Group Hug Commander Phelddagrif. While these are no Atraxa, they're still very popular commanders for players to build around, meaning I see sustained demand for Temple Bells.

Price-wise, this card has really moved since early January 2016, rising from $0.38 to $0.58. While this looks cute on paper, in reality no one could make any profits from this movement unless they were buying copies in bulk at $0.10 a copy. Foils, however, are a much more attractive proposition. They began 2016 in the $2 range and now sell for nearly $4. This doesn’t represent profitability yet, but I suspect this one will become scarcer and scarcer over time. Even though this card was reprinted a few times, it still only has one foil printing.

You know how many foil copies are in stock on TCG Player? Nine. The number on eBay? Three. Star City Games has a few SP and MP copies in stock but these are really quite sparse. I think I’ll move in on a couple more copies myself…

Wrapping It Up

I deal in foils fairly infrequently. When you’re focusing on Old School investments, there’s no room for foils to come into the equation; therefore, I generally overlook them.

But in order to be successful when speculating on other formats—especially Commander—I need to start introducing foils into my portfolio. They offer a far better return on investment when compared to their nonfoil counterparts. The added benefit of reducing reprint risk in nonfoil supplemental products is a nice bonus, and one I don’t take lightly.

But ultimately, it all comes down to time. I would much rather sell a smaller volume in foils at higher prices than higher volume at low prices. After fees and shipping, dealing in $3 cards just isn’t worth it unless the cards are being purchased at near-bulk pricing.

Therefore, I’m going to learn from my recent Inexorable Tide experience and focus on foils where appropriate. I think Hardened Scales and Temple Bell are two primed examples of foils worth acquiring, and I have acted on this. There are many other Commander cards that also fit in this category, and I encourage you to leverage EDH REC to seek those out.

I don’t think handling all these shiny cards will convert me to a foil junkie, but I do have more respect for foils now. They deserve respect because they can make you significant gains, and I hope to convert on some of these going forward.

…

Sigbits

  • Star City Games did have a few played Temple Bell foils in stock. But as for Hardened Scales, they have only one available. It’s an MP copy for $2.99. These will be restocked higher, inevitably, and I anticipate them cracking double digits down the road. It may take a year or two, but I suspect doubling up after fees in a year’s time is a solid expectation.
  • Lux Cannon recently spiked, and I see that Star City Games has one SP foil copy in stock at $7.99. This seems like the old price to me, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this card sold and a higher price tag applied within the week. These have gotten extremely sparse, and the card’s utility in Atraxa means the demand will be fairly robust for the time being.
  • Time for an Old School shout-out: check out Beta copies of Blaze of Glory. I didn’t think this card was playable at first, but apparently it’s pretty useful in some sideboards. Star City Games has a bunch of Alpha copies in stock, but they’re sold out of Beta copies with a $49.99 price tag. I suspect this will go higher, which is why I picked up a couple SP/MP Beta copies myself lately.

Insider: The Standard Metagame and the Market

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The release of the power-filled Aether Revolt combined with the corresponding bannings have completely shaken up Standard. The situation created a ton of uncertainty in the metagame and market, but now players are competing with new cards, a SCG Open weekend is in the books, and the market is beginning to sort itself out as a picture of the metagame comes into focus.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Refocus

The biggest story of last weekend was the dominance of black-green strategies, which took the top three spots in the Open. The most startling market reaction has been the massive spike of Walking Ballista, a card which will define the direction of the metagame this weekend at SCG Richmond and maybe even at the Pro Tour. It’s a big problem for cheap aggressive strategies, like White-Red Humans with Metallic Mimic, so I expect the more aggressive decks to be in decline. Players are working tirelessly to beat Black-Green, and the deck that might be best suited for the job is black-based control, which is relatively immune to Walking Ballista and can use removal like Fatal Push to contain threats and leave opponents without a meaningful offense.

Interest in control has done great things for the price of blue-black lands in Standard. Sunken Hollow has spiked from under 2 tix to 3 tix, and the paper price has crept up by 50 cents, while Choked Estuary has now broken $2 after trending downwards to around $1.50 for months. These have been relatively cheap because of the dearth of competitive blue-black strategies in Standard, but they are are bound to rise if the deck establishes itself in the top tier of Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunken Hollow
There was an error retrieving a chart for Choked Estuary

On the topic of real estate, Blooming Marsh has also seen gains since the weekend, with the online price nearly doubling and the paper price increasing by over $1. This small spike already happening makes me hesitant to think the price is due for another big increase, but there must be room to grow if BG continues to prove it’s number one. There might be more room for Hissing Quagmire, which has nearly doubled online from under 3 tix to over 5, but has seen just a modest paper increase and still sits under $4.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blooming Marsh
There was an error retrieving a chart for Hissing Quagmire

I’m also paying attention to Shambling Vent, which spiked by over 30 percent to 3 tix on Thursday. Its slow upward paper movement has also accelerated, and it would spike if Black-White Control establishes itself as the best control deck in the new metagame on the back of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. It’s a very real possibility, given its history as the top control deck last season before Emrakul, the Promised End took it out of the metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shambling Vent

There are a few control cards to keep an eye on, including the awaken spells Ruinous Path, which answers the planeswalkers that are back in the spotlight after Smuggler's Copter can no longer oppress them, and Scatter to the Winds, which may prove to be simply better than Disallow without Emrakul, the Promised End in the format. Both are now trending upwards on MTGO, and the paper prices are sitting at their lowest points in months with room to grow.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruinous Path
There was an error retrieving a chart for Scatter to the Winds

A good control bet could be Ob Nixilis Reignited, which has moved from 2.5 tix to over 3.3 tix in the past week. It has been trending downwards in paper, but it seems to have leveled off over this same period. It seems like a bargain as a planeswalker under $4, especially with its long-term casual and Commander appeal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis Reignited

A bet on Black-White Control is specifically a bet on Sorin, Grim Nemesis, which was a staple of the deck last season. Its price has been sitting an an all-time low under $5.50 but looks to be ticking upwards a few cents.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorin, Grim Nemesis

Sphinx of the Final Word isn’t typically more than a one-of in Blue-Black as a backup win condition, but as a $1 mythic it has nothing but upside. The price on MTGO has grown by 50 percent in the past two weeks, which could indicate the paper price following.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx of the Final Word

Another control card to note is Horribly Awry, which has previously been considered unplayable, maybe even bulk, but is suddenly in the equation as a great answers to creatures, including Felidar Guardian. It’s certain to gain some resale value if becomes part of top-tier blue-black decks, so it could become relevant to buylists.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horribly Awry

Murder is another great answer to Felidar Guardian, so it’s in position to become a Standard staple.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murder

One interesting development from last weekend was the success of the Oath cycle, including Oath of Nissa, Oath of Chandra and Oath of Jace, when combined with Felidar Guardian to re-use them. These were found in the top-performing Saheeli Rai decks of the weekend, and they are going to be staples going forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Chandra

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Jace

I’ve heard anecdotes that the old Fevered Visions-driven Prized Amalgam deck with Stitchwing Skaab and Advanced Stitchwing was very popular in the final days of the MTGO Aether Revolt beta testing, and on Thursday it could be seen on Hareruya’s stream. There hasn’t been much market movement on its cards, but it’s something to keep in mind as a deck a team could show up with to the Pro Tour.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prized Amalgam

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fevered Visions

SCG Richmond will be a very revealing look at the metagame, and now that Aether Revolt is out on Magic Online, I’m excited to start poring over the decklists from those events too. Things will come to a head with the Pro Tour next week, and we’ll be providing all the latest news and updates here at QuietSpeculation.com.

What are your thoughts on the metagame and the market moving forward from here?

--Adam

Look Who’s Flooded: Welcoming Combo and Control to Modern

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It's been an exciting week for Modern. Fatal Push was sanctioned last Friday, and the SCG Columbus Classic gave players a highly anticipated datapoint for the new metagame. A linear combo deck won that event, and a purely reactive control deck just missed the Top 8. Combo and control are famously underpowered archetypes in Modern, giving us a lot to think about while analyzing the results.

This article considers the short- and long-term effects of Wizards' decision to ban Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll, as well as the opportunities the shifting metagame presents for combo and control.

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Diversifying Combo

The classic aggro/control/combo rock-paper-scissors archetype matchup triangle (*breath*) is represented in Modern by an alternate food chain: aggro-combo/ramp/midrange. Aggro-combo decks like Infect, Death's Shadow Zoo, and Affinity prey on ramp decks like Tron and Valakut, which struggle to interact in the first few turns of the game. Meanwhile, ramp goes way over the fair midrange decks, which use Tarmogoyf or Snapcaster Mage to pressure aggro-combo opponents while simultaneously killing off all their threats.

This new format is young, but given the success of Danny Spencer's Ad Nauseam at the Columbus Classic, it appears the Gitaxian Probe ban had one huge benefit: diversifying combo.

Gitaxian Probe and the Combo Conundrum

Like draw-go control, linear combo is one of Modern's infamously shafted archetypes. This is by design; the format's Turn Four Rule purposefully keeps the archetype from prospering. Whenever a successful combo deck emerges, Wizards promptly bans it. Blazing Infect, Storm, and Amulet Bloom have all met that cruel fate. The reason: for a combo deck to succeed in Modern, it must be faster than the format's aggro decks. Which, incidentally, win on turn four. As a result, combo's space in the metagame pie has been supplanted by aggro-combo decks.

Wizards wants as diverse a Modern format as possible. That means lots of different viable strategies, including linear combo. If combo decks can't speed up without violating one of the format's fundamental tenants, they cannot succeed unless the faster aggro-combo decks slow down somehow. I've heard disgruntled Delver players and Kiln Fiend die-hards alike grumble at the Probe ban, lamenting that the more Infect-specific Become Immense (replete with its broken delve mechanic) wasn't banned over the beloved Phyrexian sorcery.

But Probe was the only card shared by all pump strategies, the primary offenders when it came to racing combo decks with damage. Even Burn often wins around turn four, and is notoriously easy to interact with even for dedicated combo decks, which boast incidental hosers like Phyrexian Unlife. Given that Death's Shadow Zoo and UR Prowess are relatively new to Modern, it makes even more sense to remove a card that helps enable them all—it's not unlikely that Probe would enable more aggro-combo decks in the future, which would trivialize an earlier Become Immense ban.

Combo's Future

It's worth noting that the Classic's Top 16 was impressively diverse, a rare feat in new formats, which historically revolve around tried-and-true goodstuff decks until they've had some time to breathe (consider Siege Rhino and Splinter Twin's stranglehold on Modern directly after the Cruise/Dig/Pod ban). But specifically, Ad Nauseam's Classic win bodes well for the future of Modern.

Between the Probe ban and the emergence of Fatal Push, a card that enjoyed a strong showing at the Classic and certainly isn't going anywhere, aggro-combo took a sizable hit this ban cycle. I still expect these decks to exist in Modern, as they're likely to remain the most elegant answer to ramp strategies. But slowing them down a bit allows linear combo decks to occupy some of the anti-ramp metagame space previously dominated by Glistener Elf and Monastery Swiftspear.

Combo's re-introduction to the format also complicates the rock-paper-scissors triangle, which benefits the format by making matchup nuance richer. Ad Nauseam has a far better time against Jund than something like Infect, while posting a miserable Infect matchup itself (thanks to the unfortunate interaction between Angel's Grace, Phyrexian Unlife, and poison counters). I prefer a format less dependent on the matchup lottery; when there are only four realistically viable decks (say, Jund, Infect, Tron, and Dredge, all best-of-breed representatives of larger archetypes), Modern becomes less about skillfully navigating a mixed field and more about dodging the guy with Mutagenic Growths.

The rise of combo almost guarantees an increase in permission. Without aggro-combo to overpolice the archetype, slower decks will have to turn to non-removal disruptive options, including Thoughtseize, Slaughter Games, and yes, Mana Leak. This turn of events opens doors for Delver and control strategies, which are also both criminally under-represented in Modern.

Further Dissecting the Probe Ban

We've seen how the Probe ban stands to diversify the combo slice of Modern's metagame pie. Wizards' official banlist announcement proved mercilessly short, but I doubt that this diversification of combo wasn't a goal of theirs. I believe another factor strongly influenced their decision: the perception of lower-level players.

Wizards Cares About Casuals

Ah, casual players. The scourge of Magic! Just kidding. Someone's gotta keep those Emrakul, the Promised End prices from crashing. Since casual players make up such a sizable portion of Wizards' patrons (just look at the wild success of Commander), it makes sense that they would cater to that group. Modern newcomers, too, fall under the casual umbrella for this argument.

In the previously linked article about Wizards' plans for Modern, the format's number one listed goal is for Modern to be fun. It seems like diversity leads to fun for Wizards. And it's not fun to play against the same broken deck three times in a row at FNM.

We studied Nexites can look at metagame data and discern Death's Shadow Zoo, UR Prowess, and Infect as different decks. But to a Modern newbie at FNM, pairing against Death's Shadow Zoo, UR Prowess, and Infect in a row must be pretty demoralizing. All that player knows is that he lost every round to Gitaxian Probe, Mutagenic Growth, and a few cheap creatures that deal lots of damage fast. Modern is unlikely to appear diverse from that player's point of view.

How about losing to Infect, Affinity, and Ad Nauseam? Already a drastic improvement. These decks kill opponents in different ways and employ unique strategies. Heck, they don't even share a card between them (barring Inkmoth Nexus). They also all demand different types of interaction from opponents. Who knew losing could be so fun!

When pump decks are too fast to let linear combo strategies like Ad Nauseam exist, and too efficient to warrant playing slower aggro-combo decks like Affinity, Modern becomes less attractive at lower levels of play. Too many matches play out the same way in the eyes of newer players, on whom the nuance of Wild Nacatl versus Glistener Elf is lost in a disorienting flurry of Phyrexian spells. Dredge was partly to blame for pump's meteoric rise, as it forced opponents to win as quickly as possible and therefore polarized the format. But so was Probe, and I think the ban was an elegant way of powering down all pump decks without adding too many cards to the banlist.

Control's Second Coming

The Classic results also heralded the return of control, bringing Ryan Hovis and his sweet-looking Esper Control deck all the way to 9th place. The archetype's Travoltian comeback owes everything to Aether Revolt preorder hit Fatal Push, the sort of efficient, generic answer Modern players have been clamoring for since forever—and in black!

Jeskai's Limitations

I agree with David's assessment that Esper seems better positioned than Jeskai to carry the draw-go torch in Modern. Fatal Push is a huge upgrade to Bolt in terms of all-purpose removal for smaller creatures. With more cheap ways to answer dangerous threats like Tarmogoyf, Esper can focus on drawing and go-ing, without worrying so much about turning Colonnade sideways.

Jeskai faced two damning obstacles in Modern. For one, it could run out of gas against decks light on lands, flooding as opponents continuously drew threats. Ancestral Vision helped in this department, but at the cost of being a terrible topdeck, a relatively clunky draw as of turn three, and dead against blistering aggro-combo openers.

Secondly, Jeskai had trouble stabilizing over decks that went bigger, notably Tron. Common knowledge would indicate that big mana decks should lose to control. They spend the early turns and some cards assembling their mana, then run their limited number of payoff cards into a few timely counterspells and fold to a cascade of card advantage (read: more counterspells). Not so in Modern. This format lacks Counterspell itself, leaving control mages with Mana Leak instead.

Leak counters crucial threats from mana-light aggro decks, allowing control to stay in the game long enough to resolve its more powerful cards. But it does nothing against an opponent searching up multiple copies of Urza's Tower. And unlike RG Valakut, the nature of Urzatron grants pilots a sizable mana advantage without requiring too many land drops, meaning they can follow up with threat after threat. The big-mana decks of old had to spend precious cards to go up on mana, even if they got to that mana faster than opponents.

The solution has always been for control to turn the corner on Tron before it lost, a laughable plan considering Jeskai Control is full of Colonnades and Ancestral Visions, and light on cheap threats. Splinter Twin made this hurdle a non-issue for interactive blue decks, as Twin could combo around the same time Tron began casting Wurmcoil Engines. Nahiri, the Harbinger filled a similar role, allowing Jeskai to cheese a win as early as turn six.

It turns out six is a lot later than four, though, especially considering this particular win condition allots Tron two full turns to diffuse the spaghetti monster time bomb with options as diverse as Karn, Liberated and Oblivion Stone. Between Vision providing a lackluster answer to the virtual card advantage problem, and Nahiri providing a lackluster answer to the big mana problem, it's no wonder Jeskai has declined steadily since Shadows over Innistrad's initial hype wore off.

A Fatal Solution

The reason control mages were bound to Jeskai, with all its aforementioned issues, was its access to Lightning Bolt, Lightning Helix, and Electrolyze. These cards afforded Jeskai a reasonable aggro-control matchup, something Esper, with its clunky answers, desperately lacked. Enter Fatal Push, a card that handily does away with that weakness.

With an excellent creature-removal suite, Esper has an easier time packing expensive but effective counterspells like Cryptic Command. This type of card is way better at stopping a Karn or Ugin than Mana Leak. The presence of Esper Charm in these colors, and Esper's natural affinity for end-of-turn all-star Think Twice, also gives the shard a more reliable card advantage engine than Ancestral Vision. These factors combine to leave me with the impression that Esper is control's fresh face for 2017.

Underdog Gets the Worm

As always, I'm optimistic about Modern's future and Wizards' guiding hand. Their printing of Fatal Push indicates a new focus on the blanket answers the format needs and deserves, and their January bans suggest a deep understanding of Modern's inner workings. Here's to hoping we see plenty of Esper decks—of both the Snapcaster Mage and Lotus Bloom varieties—in the coming months.

Deck Overview- Modern Esper Control

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We recently saw a Narset Transcendent spike based on a fringe Modern deck, and last weekend a similar deck took 9th at the Columbus Modern Classic. Fatal Push is making such decks much more appealing, and Ryan Hovis' list has already caused market movement on Esper Charm and Runed Halo. Here is his list:

Esper Control by Ryan Hovis

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Cryptic Command
4 Esper Charm
4 Fatal Push
3 Logic Knot
2 Negate
2 Path to Exile
2 Secure the Wastes
2 Sphinx's Revelation
4 Think Twice
3 Supreme Verdict

Lands

3 Island
1 Plains
1 Swamp
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
1 Godless Shrine
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Marsh Flats
1 Mystic Gate
4 Polluted Delta
1 Steam Vents
1 Sunken Ruins
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Relic of Progenitus
3 Runed Halo
2 Stony Silence
1 Negate
2 Path to Exile
2 Crumble to Dust
2 Thoughtseize
2 Timely Reinforcements

I find the lack of Lingering Souls quite odd, though this deck definitely doesn't need to do a lot of blocking. The more glaring issues I have are three Logic Knots to zero Mana Leaks and not playing Torrential Gearhulk over at least one Sphinx's Revelation. All in all though, this deck is going to be great at shutting down opposing strategies and generating card advantage. I can't help but wonder if the sideboard Crumble to Dusts are enough against Tron, and that would be the matchup I am most concerned about.

Should this deck be successful in the coming weeks, I would expect there to be more market movement. There are too many Cryptic Commands out there to expect much growth on that one, though this isn't the only Snapcaster Mage deck that will be gaining traction. There is real concern of Snapcaster getting a Modern Masters reprint, though if it doesn't the growth there would likely be huge. A card that is most on the safe side, and that sees play in Cube, Commander, and Legacy is Supreme Verdict. It's poised to grow over time should it dodge a reprint, and already buylists close to $3 as compared to its $4 retail price.

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A Deeper Look at Aether Revolt: Contributions to Modern

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I have a secret to tell about the Aether Revolt prerelease a few weekends ago: I didn't play. Sure, the format was Limited, and I didn’t know the cards, and the days are getting longer—we can sit here and make excuses all day. What I was actually doing was playing Star Wars: Destiny, which, as a brief aside, is excellent and a game you should definitely check out. But, underneath all that, I’ve become more and more disconnected from set releases as time has gone on. This prerelease wasn’t a break from the mold for me; the last prerelease event I attended was for Khans of Tarkir.

Every once in a while we get a particularly exciting set for Modern. But most sets contribute just one or two cards, and they tend to be narrow roleplayers rather than cross-archetype staples that change the format fundamentally. The Tasigur, the Golden Fangs are much less common than the Blossoming Defenses or Cathartic Reunions. This is obviously a necessary attribute of a format as deep and old as Modern, but the fact remains: new set releases don't herald all that much excitement for the Moderner.

Aether Revolt is definitely in this vein, too. Besides Fatal Push, what can we really get excited about? I’m still unsure (as everyone is until they actually get their hands on the cards—don’t let anyone fool you into believing otherwise) but I’m not ready to throw the towel in on Aether Revolt by any means. Rather than be disappointed by a lack of exciting new cards for Modern, some tempering of expectations is probably in order. We just had a banning (if you didn’t know)—that in and of itself is going to shake the format up more than any possible new cards, as we saw with the Treasure Cruise bans. No, I’ll be happy if Aether Revolt brings one new staple or roleplayer to the table, along with a few cards that could see play as sideboard gems or nifty didgeridoo’s.

Thus there are a few "cards of interest" I have my eye on for potential impact in Modern. Without further ado, here are the cards I think show promise.

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Fatal Push

We’ll get this out of the way right now: this card is a game changer. One black mana kills a Tarmogoyf; along with the cracking of a fetch, you can take down most threats in the format. This card is significant enough that it has me asking why anyone would choose not to play black in a control deck moving forward. Looking right at you, Jeskai Control. Nahiri, the Harbinger and Stony Silence are great reasons to be in white, but when you’re giving up Terminate (and now Fatal Push) to play Path to Exile, are you really improving? Sure, the answer to this question is complicated and will definitely change depending on which archetypes rise to the top post-bannings, but black is really starting to pull away from the other control colors, at least in terms of strength of removal.

It’s not just the control decks that benefit from Fatal Push, either. Jund is happy to Thoughtseize turn one, and then Lightning Bolt and Fatal Push an aggro board on turn two to come back to tempo parity. Before, they were forced to strand those discard spells in hand, or else face down a potential board of three creatures with access to only two mana. In those situations, barring a double-Bolt hand, they were forced to choose between deploying a Tarmogoyf or killing one of the threats. If you tried to one-for-one them while they kept beating down with the remaining creatures, you played right into their game plan. Casting Goyf, on the other hand, would basically result in instant death if they had a kill spell to get rid of it.

That situation seems narrow, but it comes up all the time, and really just highlights the strength of Fatal Push across the format: Terminate-level removal for a single-mana price. Path to Exile without the drawback. Sound like an over-reaction? What creatures over three mana are seeing play in Modern right now? Gone are the days of Deceiver Exarch. We weren’t killing Etched Champion anyways. If our opponent is casting Wurmcoil Engines we’re probably losing regardless. Outside of Eldrazi, Fatal Push is great to excellent, and this is all putting aside the revolt clause, which is beyond easy to activate in this format.

Does this make Goblin Dark-Dwellers better? It certainly doesn’t hurt, but it’s a little too early to start thinking about resulting cascades. Once the lists start coming in, and we start to see the effect Fatal Push has on the format, we’ll have a better picture of whether some archetypes or choices get better/worse because of it. Just prepare, and recognize one thing: it is coming.

Baral, Chief of Compliance

Baral, Chief of Compliance seems fine as another Goblin Electromancer for Storm, but more Electromancers really wasn’t Storm’s need going into the off season. I’m no expert, but that thing almost always dies as soon as it hits the table. Granted, every time I play against it I’m usually packing Lightning Bolt, but what deck isn’t packing Lightning Bolt at this point in the format? Don’t answer that. The point is, almost nobody is left with their mouth open against a creature on the opposite side of the table, unless you count Living End or Ad Nauseam, which is one of the reasons why Living End and Ad Nauseam aren’t really that good.

Storm's difficulties run a little deeper than any issue Baral can promise to ameliorate. Over the years the archetype has been hit by a whopping five bans: Ponder, Preordain, Rite of Flame, Seething Song, and now Probe. In this defanged version, there are lots of decks (or cards, like Rest in Peace) that can prey on it, and its future success is probably dependent on metagame conditions changing. Kind of like how the Bills will never win the division until the Patriots end up having to forfeit 16 games or something.

Heart of Kiran

Heart of Kiran has to be interesting, but only because it’s a clearly pushed mythic that’s just begging to be exploited. Does a control deck want a 4/4 that takes advantage of plentiful planeswalker loyalty that wasn’t being used otherwise? Jace, Vryn's Prodigy might say so. A 4/4 doesn’t line up quite well against a 4/5 Tarmogoyf, but swinging for 4 and then blocking for 4 thanks to vigilance and two loyalty could be a great alternate angle of attack. If we have a planeswalker with loyalty to spare, we’re probably doing okay to begin with, but in a way the two can go hand in hand. Heart of Kiran definitely shores up some of the problems reactive decks tend to have against creatures, primary among them being how to answer a bunch of tiny dorks pecking you to death. I probably wouldn’t play this without access to Lingering Souls, but it’s definitely got my interest for now.

Yahenni's Expertise

Languish sees basically zero play in Modern, completely overshadowed as it is by Damnation. Yahenni's Expertise is yet another step down in a format where 4/5 is the magic number. It doesn’t even kill Wall of Omens or Spellskite! Still, a free spell is a free spell, and I can’t think of a better way to cash in on an Ancestral Vision, you know, for value. Goblin Dark-Dwellers is Exhibit A for the danger of playing bad cards to make good cards better, but it’s hard to imagine not feeling on top of the world after pulling this one off.

My intuition is that Yahenni's Expertise will be a classic case of the rich getting richer, as reactive decks have no shortage of ways to beat up on creature lists. Still, killing most of the board and then casting Liliana of the Veil to put the nail in the coffin? Not a bad turn four at all.

Tezzeret's Touch

The new Ensoul Artifact is a potential Affinity card. In addition to providing a giant monster to smack the opponent around with, it provides protection of sorts for an important permanent. Is there anything we want to be protecting in this fun, albeit unconventional way? Cranial Plating might say so, but Spell Pierce is almost definitely better. It’s also asking a lot to have two colored sources (between Glimmervoid, Mox Opal, and Springleaf Drum) to get this thing out. Not impossible, but not free either.

Ensoul Artifact sees play in some lists, and this gets you your lightning rod back for just one more mana. It isn’t horrible. That said, it's competing for space with some pretty insane high-end cards in Affinity lists—and there already isn't enough room for sets of Master of Etherium, Steel Overseer, and Etched Champion as it is.

Skyship Plunderer

Infect certainly isn’t dead in the wake of the Gitaxian Probe ban, but it doesn’t want Skyship Plunderer either. This card is almost a strict downgrade from Thrummingbird, which obviously sees no play whatsoever. The pseudo-proliferate is sweet and all, but I think this one should really stick to the kitchen-table infect lists where it belongs.

Hope of Ghirapur

Hope of Ghirapur is the little gnat flying around your ear, that's mildly annoying at first until it flies right in there and “holy #*#& aaaaahhhhh!” As a piece of disruption, it has some applications against a few strategies. It turns off Living End pretty well, for example, as you can sacrifice in response to the cascade trigger. These uses are pretty narrow, however. Ultimately, Hope of Ghirapur will probably be used like its precursors Silence and Xantid Swarm are in other eternal formats, to protect your own combo rather than mess with an opponent's plan.

So where could this kind of protection be useful? Living End can't run it, lest they cascade embarrassingly into their "protection piece" whilst going off unhindered. We need a combo deck that doesn't otherwise use the combat step, so we can combo off after the little Thopter has done his duty. The best candidate is probably the same archetype that makes use of Silence and Swarm in Legacy: Ad Nauseam. Game one the control decks will be flooded with removal, so I don’t think we’re playing this maindeck, but I’m really interested in seeing what an Ad Nauseam list that brings this in after board looks like. Took us a while, but we might have found a home.

Renegade Rallier

Finally, a note on Renegade Rallier, which has already made waves at SCG Columbus in Jermol Jupiter's Abzan Company deck from the Modern Classic. I initially missed this card as a Modern playable, but it appears to be a relevant addition to Abzan Company. In case you didn't know, the combo is with Saffi Eriksdotter and Viscera Seer. Looping Saffi and Rallier will generate infinite death triggers and scrys, which then can be combined with Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit for arbitrarily large attackers. It's unclear whether this new combo will prove more than the "flavor of the week," but at minimum it's another tool in the Chord and Company decks' arsenal.

The Legacy of AER

Fatal Push is going to be great, and beyond that I don't see much else. That’s fine, though, as Aether Revolt at least has some asterisks next to a few cards, which is all I’m looking for at this point. Some want their staples handed to them on a silver platter. I used to be one of them. Now I’m fine with getting my hands dirty in the hopes of finding gold. So dig in, and let me know if you find anything I've missed.

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes

Insider: Sorting by Scale

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Hey there!

You probably remember me from articles like "bulk rares," "bulk commons and uncommons" and "trying to find new ways to sort Magic cards." Those were never actual titles of my articles, but they cover a significant portion of my writing topics over the past three years.

Sometimes I feel like my bulk content might be out of reach to some players, especially when I talk about the scale that I and some of my friends work with.

"Buy 100k cards at $3 per k; it's just that simple!"

--DJ Johnson

Looking back, it kinda feels like the "rich people should just buy more money" argument. The reason I'm so knowledgeable about bulk picks and maximizing value out of bulk is because that was the only tool I had to work with as an aspiring competitive grinder. With no rare or valuable cards in my minuscule trade binder, I worked my way up by pulling Hada Freeblades and Wall of Denials out of my prize packs and finding people who would trade them into Luminarch Ascensions.

Ah, the good old days. Reminiscing aside, it feels like I've gotten a bit out of touch with the bulk of the community: players who own collections much smaller than mine. I know that when I first signed up as an Insider over four years ago, I was working with a collection smaller than the one I bought on a whim yesterday, pictured below.

20170125_154425

I get some sort of sick enjoyment out of trying to figure out the best way to sort my ever-growing collection, even though I've probably never had everything 100-percent completely sorted and perfectly finished to my own standards. I do have a pretty good system right now that's been working for me, but I'm always looking to improve and min/max the amount of value I get out of my cards.

The new relationship with that LGS I've mentioned in past articles has been working out great as an exit strategy for the $1 to $4 cards that aren't really worth listing on TCGplayer (because the flat fee and shipping costs eat me alive). I'd rather get $3.60 for a $4 card than $2.50, but that's just me. The end result of this has always been focusing on what the best way to sort *my own* collection is, as opposed to yours.

Up until now, I've expanded on my own sorting strategy as my collection and its needs have grown. Once I had a 5K box of inventory worth listing on TCGplayer, I knew it was finally time to get rid of the binder system (why I was working with eight or more trade binders for over a year, I have no idea) and start a more efficient method of set sorting in conjunction with alphabetically listing. The upside of being able to easily find everything easily outweighs the theoretical losses from when someone wants to look through your stuff. I can count the number of people who I let look through this 5K on one hand.

20170125_191236

If you're reading this and thinking, "Well, what the heck, DJ? I don't have a 5K worth sorting like that. I just have a trade binder organized by color, and like 8,000 bulk commons and uncommons. I started in Theros." Well, good. This article is actually for you. If you have a Standard/Modern/Frontier/EDH decks and just want to play the game cheaper, buckle in. I'm going to assume you'd rather not go through the hassle of buylisting, blueprinting, or creating giant sorting stations like you saw on the thumbnail of this article.

If you've purchased a collection or two in the past, there's a good chance that the bulk commons and uncommons were sorted by color; like the boxes shown in my car if you scroll up a bit. When you start playing Magic, it's the easiest sorting method that gives you a workable number of piles while still letting your cards be accessible. If you only have 1000 white cards, 1000 blue cards, etc, then it isn't too much of a struggle to find that one Preordain you know you have lying around somewhere; just check the blue pile. Know you've got some Servant of the Conduits and Woodweaver's Puzzleknots somewhere? Scanning 1,000 cards only takes a few minutes, so it's not that big of a deal. I'm here to tell you today that sorting by color is okay, as long as the number of overall cards is kept to a minimum. This is a rough estimation, but I'd say that color sorting is fine if your collection is less than the size of a 12k card house.

HOUSE--12-800_1_CARD HOUSE WITH 12 - 800CT BOXES

After you sort by color, you're usually left with 8 or 9 piles, depending on if you keep tokens or not. White, blue, black, red, green, multicolor, colorless, land. If you're running with a card  house worth of bulk and a single trade binder for the goodies, this gives you some room to overflow into secondary boxes for what you have more of.

Now comes the fun part (you can do this while you color sort, but it might slow the process down a bit): remove every single card that you might ever consider playing in any sort of deck. This is sort of the base level of picking, but it helps for those who don't know that Sunbond is worth 40 cents on a buylist and wouldn't care to ship and package a hundred of them. Pick out every card we've talked about on Brainstorm Brewery's "Breaking Bulk" segment, and check the #breakingbulk hashtag on Twitter for some helpful suggestions on what to pick out and throw in your trade binder. If it's worth 50 cents or more, toss it in the binder. If it's just a pet card that you might consider playing one day in Standard/Modern/EDH, just set it aside in one of the empty card house boxes. You probably won't reach 1,000 picks to have it fill the box, but that's fine. This is where you're throwing your Terrarions, Mana Leaks and Darksteel Citadels, just in case you ever want to play Modern Eggs/Pauper Delver/budget Affinity.

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So now you've got your binder full of goodies, your bulk organized by color (just in case you ever need to go looking for a playset of Kaladesh commons for a friend, or should you realize that you have an urge to build Omnath, Locus of Mana and just know you have a Monstrous Onslaught in the green somewhere). What to do with your bulk rares? Well, throw those in your binder too if you've got room. While I don't advocate mixing them in with the rest of your actually relevant cards, there's nothing wrong with keeping bulk rares on hand if you have the room to carry them, just in case. That one time a casual player comes into the LGS and get's excited by your Aethersquall Ancient because it's a giant freaking whale, you'll thank me for the $.50 you get in trade.

End Step

This is sort of just dipping my toes into the area of "sorting collections that aren't a billion cards," so let me know what you think. I don't know if there are Insiders out there who will benefit from this information, so let me hear your thoughts in the comments section, or on Twitter where I'm more likely to notice it at @Rose0fthorns. Maybe we can go deeper into organizing by set/format for those with a little bit larger collection next week. Hmm.

Anyway, Retract finally popped, as did near mint copies of Reshape. Right now I'm still looking at foils of  Rhystic Study creeping up at $20. I had a couple dozen copies in my cart at SCG a month or two ago, but got cold feet and now they're out of stock. If you're a Commander player and want to lock in a foil anytime soon, I highly recommend it. Buying into nonfoils is risky due to the reprint possibility in Archenemy, but if it does get the reprint hammer, then we'll see an amazing buy opportunity.

Thanks for reading!

Stock Watch- Saffi Eriksdotter

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Renegade Rallier is generating a lot of Modern buzz, and in its first week of legality already made it to the finals of a Modern Classic! Jermol Jupiter played three copies of the Aether Revolt uncommon in his second place Abzan Company deck this past weekend. The card that is seeing movement, however, is the one-of Time Spiral rare in his list.

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Saffi gives the deck another infinite combo by combining with Viscera Seer, Renegade Rallier, and Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit. You sacrifice your Saffi targetting your Rallier, then sacrifice your Rallier to your Seer, and then the Rallier comes back and brings the Saffi back with it. All the while, your Anafenza generates bolster triggers.

Saffi currently has a sparse 14 listings on TCGPlayer, with most of them being over $10. A one-of in a Modern deck for a back-door combo doesn't generate a lot of demand, though Time Spiral hasn't been in print for years. This isn't the only combo that Saffi fits into, and it has some Cube/Commander demand as well, though I wouldn't expect Saffi to climb too much higher. I'd be happier as a seller than a buyer at the current price.

Insider: Aether Revolt Standard

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Come one, come all! The Aether is Revolting and Standard is shaking with innovations. There may not have been as many breakout decks as I would have liked, but at least some of the strategies are looking more interesting now. If anything will progress the format, the upcoming Pro Tour hopefully will. I look forward to writing about all the great things happening in Standard from that event as well as this past weekend in Columbus (sadly, I wasn’t able to make it to this tournament, which is basically on my home turf). Let’s dive into the results together.

To start off, I did a metagame breakdown of the top 64 decks.

GB Aggro 9
Saheeli 25
Vehicles 7
GW Tokens 8
Emerge 3
Aetherworks 2
Misc Control 3
Misc Aggro 7

"Misc Aggro" includes BR Zombies, Esper or BW Aggro, UW Spirits, Bant Eldrazi, and GR Energy.
"Misc Control" included UB and UR Control.

Wow! Twenty-five of the top 64 decks were playing the Saheeli Rai plus Felidar Guardian combo! That’s 39 percent of the top cut all utilizing one strategy. For week one, I think that’s pretty ominous. Maybe I should have made the distinction between Four-Color Saheeli and the Jeskai version above. The four-color version took 10 of the spots and the three-color version attained 15 spots. The four-color version is more like a midrange energy deck using Servant of the Conduit to ramp, while the Jeskai version plays more like a control deck with counters and removal spells. Both aim to win the game with infinite creatures once both halves of the combo are in play.

When we look at just the top eight break down, here’s the winners' metagame.

GB Aggro 3
Saheeli 3
Vehicles 1
GW Tokens 1

So, even though there was a diverse top 64, the top eight was taken mostly by Green-Black and Saheeli decks. At the very top of the tournament was Green-Black, but despite taking the top three spots, the deck only held nine of the top 64 spots. One issue with the green-black strategy is that there are so many ways to build it. With it only being week one, many players didn’t agree on what the best version of this color combination would be. Sig wrote on Monday that GB’s main innovation was the inclusion of Walking Ballista, and I couldn’t agree more. I think that going forward, we need to explore the +1/+1 counter theme introduced in these decks and exploit it even more. Here’s the best example of what I’m talking about from the Columbus decks:

GB Aggro by Daniel Weiser, 32rd place

Creatures

4 Greenbelt Rampager
1 Glint-Sleeve Siphoner
4 Walking Ballista
4 Winding Constrictor
4 Longtusk Cub
2 Tireless Tracker
1 Bristling Hydra
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Verdurous Gearhulk

Spells

4 Attune with Aether
2 Blossoming Defense
4 Fatal Push
3 Grasp of Darkness
3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar

Lands

4 Aether Hub
3 Hissing Quagmire
3 Evolving Wilds
4 Blooming Marsh
4 Forest
3 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Aethersphere Harvester
2 Bristling Hydra
2 Flaying Tendrils
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Lifecrafter's Bestiary
2 Natural State
4 Transgress the Mind

This version of the deck is more on the aggressive side and focuses on the synergies between energy and +1/+1 counters. I like this a lot – on their own, these cards are just fine, but when combined together, they become greater than they are on their own. I’m not sure which version is the best, but Bristling Hydra being able to protect itself as well as get extra counters thanks to Winding Constrictor seems pretty amazing to me. GR Energy may not be the deck to beat from SCG Columbus, but it's locally one of the most played decks. The Hydra is a big part of why the deck does well in my area, and it’s nearly as good in this green-black deck.

Nearly every card I could mention from this archetype went up in value this week. The only exception is Bristling Hydra – because it was not included in most builds. If more players start adopting this strategy, we will see a price increase on that card as well as all the others.

While most of these archetypes are just updates from previous strategies, one stood out to me from the field, because it’s one I’ve been working on myself.

Bant Eldrazi by Khyler Fields, 30th place

Creatures

4 Thraben Inspector
4 Servant of the Conduit
3 Eldrazi Displacer
4 Matter Reshaper
3 Thought-Knot Seer
2 Gisela, the Broken Blade
3 Reality Smasher
3 Archangel Avacyn
1 Elder Deep-Fiend
1 Bruna, the Fading Light

Spells

3 Authority of the Consuls
3 Declaration in Stone
2 Tamiyo, Field Researcher

Lands

4 Aether Hub
4 Evolving Wilds
3 Botanical Sanctum
2 Fortified Village
2 Prairie Stream
2 Sanctum of Ugin
4 Plains
1 Island
1 Forest
1 Wastes

Sideboard

1 Ajani Unyielding
1 Blessed Alliance
2 Cataclysmic Gearhulk
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Immolating Glare
1 Linvala, the Preserver
4 Negate
2 Stasis Snare

This deck and strategy is doing something completely different than the rest of the metagame. Most Standard decks are focused on interactions from Kaladesh block, whereas this deck just jams Eldrazi until you’re defeated. My version took this one step further and didn’t really include these other normal creatures and instead just focused on the Eldrazi. My only complaint? I couldn’t beat Bristling Hydra and my results were skewed due to my local metagame being flooded with GR Energy and its budget-friendly builds.

Many players aren’t prepared to face Reality Smasher in Standard right now. What removal kills that guy? Sure, Declaration in Stone and a few others too, but the meta is soft to this finisher. The same goes for Tamiyo, Field Researcher. This Bant planeswalker taps down their creatures to break board stalls as well as drawing you cards to continue to fuel your aggressive attacks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Authority of the Consuls

Financially, the main takeaway from this deck is Authority of the Consuls. This one-mana white enchantment quietly crept up a couple bucks and is sitting at a little over $3. That’s the adjusted price after the initial price correction. I think there are a lot of copies of this card sitting in bulk bins/binders, so keep your eyes out for this card that’s definitely no longer bulk.

Another Authority of the Consuls deck is GW Tokens, and I think this strategy is going to get a lot of play at the Pro Tour. Here’s the top eight deck.

GW Tokens by Hunter Nance, 4th place

Creatures

4 Thraben Inspector
3 Sylvan Advocate
3 Lambholt Pacifist
2 Rishkar, Peema Renegade
3 Verdurous Gearhulk

Spells

4 Oath of Nissa
2 Authority of the Consuls
3 Heart of Kiran
3 Stasis Snare
4 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
4 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Lands

4 Canopy Vista
4 Fortified Village
1 Westvale Abbey
8 Forest
8 Plains

Sideboard

2 Ajani Unyielding
2 Blessed Alliance
1 Fragmentize
1 Fumigate
1 Heroic Intervention
1 Lambholt Pacifist
2 Natural State
1 Quarantine Field
2 Sram's Expertise
1 Stasis Snare
1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar

There is so much great stuff happening with this deck. We have a little of the +1/+1 counter synergies, Heart of Kiran plus planeswalkers, and Authority of the Consuls plus tokens. This archetype seems really strong and well positioned in the metagame. I expect many pros to work on this strategy and hone it for the Pro Tour.

The only card in the deck to not jump back to its previous peak price is Sylvan Advocate. So if you got rid of your playset, now’s the time to get back in at $2 before they double or triple in price.

Summary

For week one, I think many of these innovations were straightforward. Vehicles slotting in Heart of Kiran, for example, is an obvious move to keep the strategy viable. The interaction between Walking Ballista, Winding Constrictor and Rikshar, Peema Renegade is less obvious and much cooler, but upgrading green black is a clear winner of a strategy. Saheeli combo is new to the format, but there are many ways to build around it, not just the two we’ve seen so far.

My hope is that the Pro Tour brings out a more diverse array of decks to battle against each other. Whatever innovations are there, you can be sure I and the rest of the QS team will bring them to light for you to see.

Until next time,
Unleash the Aether Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Insider:QS Cast #51: Cardhoarder Special Part 2

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Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Esteemed guest Nathaniel from Cardhoarder/Isle of Cards joins the QS Cast again!
  • How was last year for Isle, and the final quarter? How is the outlook for 2017?
  • Any updates or big changes to Isle for listeners to watch out for in 2017?
  • Deep dive into the Modo changes and what the results have looked like so far.
  • Has Card Hoarder had to adjust its business model since the changes?
  • "Magic Digital Next" announcement from Chris Cocks - What are Nathaniel's thoughts, concerns, and what you're excited about for the new overhauled digital program. How is Card Hoarder prepping for the changes?
  • How do you think the new digital changes will impact paper magic, and Isle of Cards?
  • Given your vendor experience from last year and Q4 of 2016, how do you recommend listeners approach magic finance and magic investing for this year?
  • Is Magic thriving moving into 2017?
  • Would Isle of Cards be vending at GPs? Why or why not?
  • Interests
  • What we’re looking to acquire

 

Cards we Discussed: *Aether Hub has a recent FNM Promo announced that we weren't aware of when we recorded.



Nathaniel's MTGO Choices:

As always, please comment and leave questions for us to address on the next cast! We will be making QS Insider questions a priority, and we want to know what you want covered.

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark @cardhoarder @isleofcards

Digging Delver, the Columbus Classic, and Hidden Herbalists

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Given my poor Standard performance in Columbus this weekend, I got to experience my first foray into the new Modern format at the Star City Games Classic. No Gitaxian Probes, no Golgari-Grave Trolls, and some Fatal Pushes peppered into a handful of decklists. David Ernenwein did a solid job of breaking down the published winning decklists, though I have some additional insight from the floor worth discussing.

I have some brews that I'm interested in for the new post-ban Modern, though I would be remiss if I didn't show up with Grixis Delver at least once. It's my baby. The changes I made from last week's list are pretty minor, and were pretty much just based on shower thoughts the morning of the tournament. This is what I battled with:

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Grixis Delver, by Ryan Overturf

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Gurmag Angler

Instants

1 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
4 Spell Snare
4 Terminate
4 Thought Scour
1 Remand

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Spirebluff Canal
1 Blood Crypt
2 Bloodstained Mire
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Engineered Explosives
3 Countersquall
1 Dispel
1 Magma Spray
1 Collective Brutality
2 Spell Pierce
1 Go for the Throat
1 Cavern of Souls
3 Fulminator Mage

Basically, I thought that Remand was probably good again if low-CMC creatures are going to be worse. Similarly, Collective Brutality will have fewer great matchups to shine in. The card that got cut from the 75 for these changes was the second Magma Spray. In light of the Classic results—specifically the potential return of Abzan Company—it should perhaps be the second Kolaghan's Command or the Cavern of Souls that bites it instead.

Anyway, my tournament was solidly medium. I had a great time playing and my opponents were generally great people, though I didn't have the requisite luck to make it through a nine-round event. I actually only played eight of my rounds, as I had three losses and thought my car was ready to leave town (which they weren't). That's neither here nor there though. I played some sweet games, though none against any new archetypes, so I think match records offer as much information as a full tournament report would:

Round 1 - 2-0 vs. Jund
Round 2 - 2-1 vs. GW Tron
Round 3 - 1-2 vs. Grishoalbrand
Round 4 - 2-0 vs. Grixis Control
Round 5 - 0-2 vs. Bant Eldrazi
Round 6 - 2-0 vs. Affinity
Round 7 - 2-0 vs. GW Tron
Round 8 - 1-2 vs. GB Tron

My Grishoalbrand opponent was Michael Coyle, who went on to finish third in the tournament. He killed me on turn three of both sideboard games with at least one Pact of Negation as backup. Simian Spirit Guide's legality remains, in my opinion, laughable. The Goryo's Vengeance decks have enough consistency issues that it makes sense that a banning hasn't hit them yet, and I certainly don't want to come off as salty. Michael seemed like a good dude and we had a fun match. All I'm saying is that mana monkey is a villain and its presence in the format is suspect.

The fact that I played against three Tron decks was no accident. The Top 16 doesn't tell the full story of this tournament, and in addition to playing against Tron a bunch, I couldn't look left or right without seeing multiple additional copies of the deck. I don't have raw data for the tournament, but Tron was very well-represented. In this field, it's not remotely surprising that Goryo's Vengeance and Ad Nauseum finished so highly. Tron is a huge winner at level one with regard to the bannings, and spell-based combo does a great job of wrecking Tron.

Regarding my Tron matchup with this specific build, I was very pleased with Fulminator Mage. Many players have asked me about Molten Rain in its place, but the ability to beat down and get in more than two points of damage came up more than once in my sideboard games. The ability to cast Fulminator Mage and leave up a counter on five mana is also a lot better than Snapcasting a Molten Rain, as you end up countering a lot of tutors for lands in the matchup. As such, I prefer using Kolaghan's Command to recur Fulminators over using Snapcaster Mage to recur Molten Rains.

The round that I lost involved my opponent having turn-three natural tron plus a Chromatic Star to cast World Breaker in game three. There's nothing my current configuration can do about this, and if I didn't expect more do-nothing blue control decks to be showing up, I would consider Spreading Seas for this slot. As things stand, I suppose you just accept taking an inevitable loss to the absolute nut draw. Even turn-three Karn Liberated can be countered—it's just turn-three World Breaker that is basically unbeatable.

Grixis Delver still seems great on the whole in Modern, though the Top 16 of the Classic this weekend did have three copies of Bant Eldrazi and one copy of Dredge, which are both convincingly bad matchups. All things considered, I would say that the changes to Modern are net-positive for Grixis Delver, though if Dredge proves to be more than fringe I will be doing more experimentation in the coming months. The four Fatal Push decks are going to be put to the test by Snapcaster Mage and Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and I feel good enough about my plan against Tron's projected increase in metagame share.

Innovations

Both of my GW Tron opponents had Walking Ballista in their deck, and the Triskelion variant was quite impressive. It's a serviceable payoff when you have tron online, and is great on turn two against decks like Delver and Infect. I would expect the card to show up in small numbers in Tron going forward, and also see it as a potential tool for Affinity. The interaction with Arcbound Ravager is definitely powerful, and Arcbound Worker is champing at the bit to reappear in the deck. Expect to play against this card in the near future.

Fatal Push made its presence known this weekend, though its impact fell more in line with my predictions than notions that it would completely change the landscape of the format. Two Affinity decks and an Infect deck made the Top 16 of the tournament, and the decks resilient to Fatal Push were more successful than the Fatal Push decks themselves. The card is quite good—it just has more secondary effects than primary effects: e.g. big mana, high-CMC creatures, sticky creatures, and spell-based combo benefit more than control decks. Meanwhile, Infect and Affinity have been squaring off against one-mana removal since day one, and rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.

New Tools for 8-Whack

The relative success of Affinity this past weekend is indicative of the fact that going wide quickly is another great way to win, even in the face of one-mana interaction. Robots have proven their consistent viability historically, though I believe there may be a new kid on the block in the realm of powerful go-wide aggressive decks. Burning-Tree Emissary has seen a good amount of Modern success, and I believe that Hidden Herbalists stands to add consistency and power to the explosive Reckless Bushwhacker decks.

These decks aren't exactly my cup of tea, and I've only started to experiment with them. Bushwhacker Zoo decks have moved away from Goblin Bushwhacker to play more consistent and less all-in strategies, though I believe that Hidden Herbalists allows the deck to goldfish turn three-kills consistently enough to really push a narrow-minded game plan. I think that Goblin Bushwhacker still doesn't quite cut the mustard, though I am inclined to believe that I want the full 8 Burning-Tree Emissary effects. This is where my build currently sits:

Herbalist Zoo, by Ryan Overturf

Creatures

4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Hidden Herbalists
4 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Experiment One
4 Kird Ape
4 Narnam Renegade

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Atarka's Command
2 Manamorphose

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Windswept Heath
4 Arid Mesa
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Forest
2 Stomping Ground
1 Sacred Foundry

The deck is light on actual lands that tap for mana, which is fine because we're really trying to win on turn three anyway. We need to be fetch-heavy to enable revolt, as this deck is basically unplayable without doing so consistently. The Manamorphose may look a bit odd, but we have a lot of red spells to cast after we play Hidden Herbalists, and we won't always have a Burning-Tree Emissary to filter our Herbalists mana. This deck should handily smash Tron, keep pace with other linear decks, and be able to steal plenty of games even in the face of efficient interaction.

I'm wary of facing off against Inquisition of Kozilek into Tarmogoyf, and I expect that as I learn the ins and outs of this deck I will have to make small adaptations to handle the Tarmogoyf problem. On the play this deck will often be explosive enough for this not to matter, but you can't always win the die roll or keep the nuts seven. Ghor-Clan Rampager, Mutagenic Growth, and my own Tarmogoyfs are on my short list of potential includes as remedies. I strongly dislike Path to Exile for this job, as I believe a narrow-minded focus on raw damage output will lead this deck to the highest win percentage. Minimally, Narnam Renegade will be able to attack with abandon due to its deathtouch. I'll either be playing this or Grixis Delver at the upcoming SCG Regionals, though either way I am very excited for this event and the future of Modern.

Sayonara

Whelp, as I mentioned last week, this will be my last regular article on Modern Nexus. Thanks again to everyone reading, and special thanks to everybody who commented last week. Don't let anybody tell you that spreading positivity doesn't matter. I appreciate you. Good luck to all of you, in Magic and in life.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Financial Deck Tech: Burn

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Now that we're living in a post-ban world, I'm ready to do another financial deck tech for players new and old looking to change up their Modern deck. This time I'm going to try not to touch decks that are likely to be affected by the newest bans because there is likely too much churn in their lists to be accurate at the moment. Instead we'll be breaking down one of Modern's longest-standing and storied aggressive decks: Burn.

Overview

Barring the Star City Games Classic in Columbus, in which no Burn decks cracked the Top 16, there haven't been many major events recently. Thus we're going to begin with Gerry Thompson's Burn deck from the Invitational back in December, which is pretty typical of the archetype:

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Burn, by Gerry Thompson (9th, SCG Atlanta Invitational)

Creatures

2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Boros Charm
3 Lightning Helix
1 Shard Volley
2 Skullcrack

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

3 Mountain
2 Inspiring Vantage
1 Stomping Ground
3 Sacred Foundry
3 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Deflecting Palm
3 Destructive Revelry
2 Gut Shot
2 Path to Exile
2 Ravenous Trap
2 Skullcrack
1 Molten rain

Who is Burn for?

Burn is a very versatile deck that can be played most basically by those unfamiliar with the format, but that still rewards veterans with deep knowledge. Its plan and end goal are usually pretty easy to figure out in any given game, even if the details of execution can differentiate a competent pilot from a master. It functions similar to Affinity as it has the speed to beat the less interactive decks soundly. Burn, however, is not nearly as susceptible to game-ending sideboard cards like Affinity can be. It's a pretty good choice for a local card shop because it's difficult to hate out and pretty resilient against metagame shifts. I think it's definitely one of the best decks you could invest in when starting to play Modern.

The Future of Burn

Burn at its essence is not a deck that really has any worries about future bannings. It's a collection of the most efficient red spells in Modern with some minor sideboard tweaks. A lot of cards that are core to the current Burn deck are relatively recent additions from Journey into Nyx and Khans of Tarkir, but plenty of others have been around for quite some time. In any case, the fundamental interchangeability of the individual pieces means that even a banning would be unlikely to unseat the deck from the top tiers.

As for future printings, any upgrades would most likely rely on the addition of brutally efficient red spells which, currently, Wizards of the Coast does not seem to want to print. Maybe we'll see a shift in the beliefs of R&D and get some in the future, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised one way or another.

Regarding new hate pieces, I doubt we'll see many more cards printed that can compete with the current anti-Burn suite available. It's hard to beat the brutal efficiency of Kitchen Finks or the stickiness of Kor Firewalker, so I wouldn't be too worried about having to live in a world where the opposition is much worse than those two.

The Core

The core of a deck are those cards you absolutely need to play, where substitutions are likely impossible and copies of these cards are included almost universally across decklists. Burn is comprised largely of the most efficient damage-to-mana cost burn spells at every point on the curve, which leads to a large portion of the deck being the core. The cards that are most definitely part of the core of Burn are Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Lightning Bolt, Lava Spike, Boros Charm, Rift Bolt, and Searing Blaze.

There are many other cards that will usually make the cut in lists that are of less interest to us here. With Burn there are a lot of cascades from one inclusion to the next. For example, if you play Wild Nacatl you're also going to play Atarka's Command. If you're not playing Atarka's Command then you're probably playing Skullcrack. For our purposes, sideboard cards also don't count as part of the core, despite almost every Burn deck finding room for at least one Deflecting Palm.

The core of Burn is relatively inexpensive compared to the most optimal version that you may see a full price tag for. The 32 cards shared by most versions come to approximately $216, which includes 4 Goblin Guide ($35 each) at the top. While that number will look pretty similar to the Dredge deck that I talked about last time, there is a bit more money to be spent on a reasonable mana base. For the most technically optimal mana base, a mix of Zendikar and Onslaught fetches provide some marginal advantages—this costs even more, but generally isn't necessary for the average player.

At a minimum, you want to purchase the cards listed as the core above before going forward. Incremental upgrades can be made in the mana base after that.

Which Purchases to Prioritize

Far and away the best thing to buy first is Eidolon of the Great Revel. It's from a small, under-purchased set at the tail end of a not-terribly-popular block. It has seen pretty steady growth on Magic Online since late December despite that trend not translating into any movement in the paper price. There is likely to be a correction if any Burn staples (like Goblin Guide) are reprinted in Modern Masters 2017. Eidolon has lost over half of its value since the release of Battle for Zendikar, and I'm expecting it to hit the bottom soon.

After that, I would recommend making sure you have the cheapest commons and uncommons. Monastery Swiftspear was a $3 card while it was in Standard but can be found for about $2 now. If Frontier makes a big push and people need Swiftspears again, we could see the price rise a few more bucks. Lightning Bolt is a card most Modern players already own, but if you don't, you don't gain much by waiting. It's a card much like Lightning Helix and Path to Exile that stubbornly refuses to decrease in price. It doesn't matter how many times it gets reprinted; copies will always be a few dollars.

Boros Charm is another card I would recommend picking up right away. The Commander 2016 copies can be picked up for less than $2 in most cases, and that's near historic lows for that card. While it is eligible for a Modern Masters 2017 reprint, you really don't have much to lose as it will still probably be at least $1. Searing Blaze is also in a similar place. Just spend $4 on the playset—it's more likely to go up due to reprints of other cards than go down because it gets reprinted.

The cards I would definitely wait on are Goblin Guide, Lava Spike, and Rift Bolt. Goblin Guide seems like an obvious snub from Modern Masters 2015 that could easily be included in Modern Masters 2017. If it isn't, there aren't a ton of other cards holding back the deck's price, so it's unlikely to see a huge increase if you wait. Lava Spike and Rift Bolt were both reprinted as commons in Modern Masters (2013) and dropped to a dollar before recovering most of their price tag today. Unlike Lightning Bolt, these cards have a lower floor and thus will be impacted more by a potential reprint.

The last thing I recommend is getting at least 3 Sacred Foundry and at least 2 Stomping Ground. While they're not really part of every core, you will want access to those cards in some circumstances, and getting them now seems like the best time for a while. When we finally get another wave of enemy-colored fetchland reprints (don't worry, it's coming eventually) the hardest lands to get will likely become shocklands. With the number that get eaten up by casual players in Commander decks, and Burn's odd sensitivity to non-red mana, having access to these is a big deal.

Subsequent Upgrades

The Burn manabase is definitely the biggest compromise you can make while building the deck. Gerry played the most optimal version with 12 fetches over distinct card names (all of them find Mountain) which technically is the best way to build the mana. Having 3 copies of each of the four fetches instead of 4 copies of three fetches gives you some extra fractions of a percentage point against odd scenarios like Surgical Extraction and Pithing Needle. In practice, you may never even find yourself in a situation to lose a game for this reason, so it's not necessary to play the deck.

If you are playing Grim Lavamancers, I definitely recommend 12 fetches if you can afford to buy them. Starting with the 8 Khans of Tarkir fetchlands and extra Inspiring Vantages is definitely a reasonable substitute. Arid Mesa is not as expensive as Scalding Tarn, but you still save $200 on the playset if you play slightly less optimal lands.

If you don't have the requisite fetches you can replace them with budget red-white duals. I wouldn't recommend more than 1 Clifftop Retreat or more than 2 Battlefield Forge. The most important thing is that your lands come into play untapped—games can be won by the smallest margins, and almost any other downside is better than a tapped land.

Finally, if you plan to play the Wild Nacatl version I would recommend investing in fetches first. Wild Nacatl is a pretty embarrassing card to be playing in Modern if you don't have a Sacred Foundry in play, and you will need to find it with maximal efficiency to justify running the one-drop Cat.

After Assembling the First 60

The first thing to think about is what kind of sideboard you need for the tournaments you're planning to play in. Most people don't travel for Star City Games Opens or Grand Prix, so a lot of what your sideboard looks like will be dependent on the popular decks in your area. As such it's hard to point exactly where is the best to start, but Path to Exile is a card I definitely always have in my sideboard in some capacity. After that it really depends on your local metagame.

Cards to consider are Wear // Tear, Destructive Revelry, Deflecting Palm, Smash to Smithereens, Ensnaring Bridge, Surgical Extraction, Skullcrack, Molten Rain, Kor Firewalker, and Gut Shot. With the exception of Surgical Extraction and Ensnaring Bridge, these cards are cheap and pretty easy to find. I wouldn't recommend waiting if you anticipate needing them because their impact-to-cost ratio is pretty high. One of the strengths of a deck like Burn is that you have so many inexpensive sideboard options that allow you to easily tailor your deck without spending a ton of money.

Movers and Shakers

I'm sure everyone has seen Abzan and Jund players gushing for the past few weeks over Fatal Push, but there are other cards that are getting people excited too. Sram, Senior Edificer has a lot of players excited to get more Puresteel Paladins for their fringe Cheeri0s deck. Sram effectively gives you four more Puresteel Paladins, making the deck more consistent and quicker. While the increases won't blow the lid off of any interests pages, the cards that are in low supply and high demand for that deck have been drying up and getting more expensive. Retract and Puresteel Paladin in particular seem to being enjoying this wave of hype, despite a decklist not materializing yet.

If this type of deck excites you I would recommend buying in quickly as possible. By now the prices are probably too high to justify speculation, but for players I advise picking up your copies. Sram has also spawned a number of Standard decks that try to do a similar thing while winning with Aetherflux Reservoir and Paradoxical Outcome.

Final Thoughts

With the release of Aether Revolt upon us, I am excited to see what happens in Standard and Modern. So far nothing too crazy emerged from SCG Columbus, but the post-ban format is still in its infancy. Meanwhile I hope you enjoyed this financial deck tech, and if there's a deck you'd like me to cover next time, make sure to let me know in the comments!

Insider: MTGO Market Report for January 25th, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerance and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 23 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

jan23

Standard

Below is a chart of how the prices of the large sets of Standard have evolved since their respective prereleases. Kaladesh (KLD) is jumping up in price after the bans in Standard. This type of price movement at this stage of a set's release is unusual compared to the past price trends observed for Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Shadows over Innistrad (SOI). Price trends tend to be persistent in and KLD is bucking the trend right now on the backs of Saheeli Rai and Torrential Gearhulk.

 

SOIsale

The recent uptrend in SOI set prices is a similar magnitude to the KLD price move, though SOI has been in an uptrend since bottoming out in early October. With the release of Aether Revolt (AER) this week on MTGO, further price gains on SOI will be harder as the MTGO economy seeks to absorb the new cards with tix in high demand from players and bots alike. If you are holding sets of SOI or positions in individual cards from this set, it's a good time to consider reducing these positions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

The downtrend on BFZ looks to be firmly in place and I think it's safe to expect lower prices on this set over the next few weeks. The ultimate fate of the set price for BFZ depends on where Gideon, Ally of Zendikar lands in the new Standard metagame.

Below is a chart with the price of Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) and Eldritch Moon (EMN) since their release on MTGO. Looking at how the price of the two small sets in Standard evolved over time, the trends match up very well. The period after release is a steep downtrend while the set is opened in Limited. A subsequent steep uptrend occurs after the release of the following large set and the shift of Limited play to that set.

OGWEMNSimilar to KLD and SOI, the price of OGW has gotten the benefit of the Standard bans as well. Nissa, Voice of Zendikar is responsible for a large portion of this recent price move. It will be interesting to see if this spike is the start of a new uptrend or is just a temporary blip. EMN seems destined to continue to fall as it tracks the evolution of OGW's price closely.

Modern

With the pending release of AER, Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) and Magic Origins (ORI) are coming off of their post-rotation highs and look set to drop further. Redeemers are going to have their hands full with the new set, and so price support will only be coming from Modern play. The gains on these two sets have been largely booked at this point. If you were a buyer in the fall, it's time to consider moving out of these cards.

ORIDTK

Elsewhere in Modern, the fallout from the Gitaxian Probe and Golgari Grave-Troll bans is still reverberating. Pendelhaven is a staple of Infect strategies and has fallen by 60 percent in the past month. At 10 tix currently, the market has overreacted as it gets close to its low from the past year of 8 tix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pendelhaven

The expertise cycle of cards hasn't show much in Standard so far, but the potential for all of these cards to combine with the split cards in Modern is undeniable. Boom // Bust has always been a favorite of mine and casting it off of Yahenni's Expertise is something I'll be testing out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boom // Bust

Lastly, Sram, Senior Edificier has invigorated the price of Retract and Puresteel Paladin as players anticipate trying out these cards in the new Cheerios deck (combo decks used to all use names of breakfast cereals and this deck is a holdover from that trend). It seeks to get Sram or Paladin into play followed by a few zero casting-cost equipment into play in order to draw a bunch of cards. Retract allows for the next wave of card draw with the end game being a storm kill with Grapeshot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Opal

The boat has sailed on the aforementioned components of this deck. Mox Opal appears to be a critical card in speeding up this combo, and it's just had a price jump in the past two days, so it might have more room to run. If you think the deck is real, then going to the classic storm answer with Mindbreak Trap is sensible, as any deck can play this card in its sideboard. I've been a buyer of both Mox Opal and Mindbreak Trap this week for the portfolio.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent purchases, please check out the portfolio which is available at this link. The release of AER this week is going to generate a liquidity crunch as players look to sell their cards and boosters in order to draft with AER boosters and to buy the new cards. Simultaneously, the dealers who run the bots are trying to stock the new cards and they'll need tix in order to do so. This means that tix will be in high demand this week, so with that in mind, and the recent price increase on SOI sets, I took the opportunity to sell the sets that I had purchased in September.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archangel Avacyn

The return on these was nothing like the gains from EMN. With the new block structure, we've seen twice now that the smaller set sees a much higher price peak. The bottom to peak price move on EMN and OGW were 80 and 77 percent respectively, while for SOI and BFZ they 45 and 57 percent. Redemption has lent this strategy a guarantee that the value of the sets would be preserved, so it's not yet clear if this trade will be possible for KLD and AER, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.

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