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July ’22 Metagame Analysis: Stability’s Price

Posted on August 5, 2022August 5, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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Data analysis in a stable system creates and eliminates opportunities. On the one hand, there is a consistent target to pull apart, dissect, and discuss. Why is this trend as it is? How might it be overcome, does it need to be overcome, etc? On the other, you tend to start repeating yourself when this continues for months on end. This is where I'm finding myself in this fifth month since Lurrus of the Dream-Den was banned.

Checking In

I swear every month that I'm not going to make it all about UR Murktide being the outlier among outliers in Modern. I've said everything that could possibly be said already. However, there is simply no escaping it because look at the data! However, that's not all that's going on, and getting past Murktide (or trying to, anyway) does suggest that Modern is dynamic beneath the surface.

Deck Name	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %
UR Murktide	12.92	14.65	13.37	14.14	19.46
Cascade Crashers	7.58	7.55	5.49	5.20	2.09
Hammer Time	6.74	10.3	7.16	9.36	11.09
4-Color Blink	6.46	5.03	10.74	9.98	3.77
Living End	6.18	7.32	6.68	3.95	6.28
Amulet Titan	4.78	5.03	4.53	3.53	5.23
Yawgmoth	4.21	5.72	7.16	5.20	6.69
UW Control	3.65	1.83	3.58	2.70	2.09
Burn	3.37	4.35	4.06	6.24	4.60
Mono-Green Tron	3.37	3.20	1.68	2.70	2.30
Grixis Shadow	3.37	2.29	1.68	5.61	7.11

Updating my tables from last month makes that clear. A number of decks have seen rapid changes in position from June. It will be easier to see in graph form:

Murktide was at least being shadowed by a number of decks and by a relatively stable margin in previous months. That's all gone out the window in July. Not only did it just take off, but many other decks fell precipitously and the gaps in the metagame are becoming more pronounced. This is continued in the paper data:

Deck Name	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %
UR Murktide	10.08	7.64	12.75	11.88	13.02
Cascade Crashers	6.52	9.20	7.16	5.20	6.26
Hammer Time	4.15	3.90	5.30	6.25	6.13
4-Color Blink	0.79	5.77	7.31	8.28	6.39
Living End	3.95	3.74	2.58	3.59	4.47
Amulet Titan	6.32	4.99	3.44	4.22	4.98
Yawgmoth	3.36	3.12	4.73	5.00	6.13
UW Control	6.72	5.46	3.87	3.43	3.83
Burn	5.73	4.99	4.73	3.28	5.11
Mono-Green Tron	1.78	2.81	2.44	3.28	2.30
Grixis Shadow	4.74	1.40	4.15	3.43	4.09

There may be only one outlier in paper this month, but the scale of the gap between Murktide and its next competitor looks worse than online:

The gap isn't actually worse, as Magic: Online's (MTGO) ~8% is bigger than paper's ~7% gap, but with no additional outlier to bridge the gap it's more pronounced. Always remember when reading graphs to pay attention to the scale.

All Together, Now

This brings me to the bigger problem with the current metagame. Last month I made the argument that, while Modern is quite diverse, the percentage that the 11 selected decks are taking up poses a long-term problem by stifling the space for creativity and innovation. I'm really feeling that argument is vindicated by the July numbers:

	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %
MTGO	62.63	67.27	66.13	68.61	70.71
Paper	54.14	53.02	54.31	57.84	62.71

Yeah, 70% of a metagame made up of Tier 1 decks (with a few from Tiers 2 and 3) isn't great. Especially when I remind everyone that these 11 decks are only half of the Tier list. That is a very concentrated metagame, and far from ideal.

Both paper and MTGO saw the total decks making the Tier list fall in July, and these trendlines are plausibly explanatory. I've said it before, but I'll hammer it in again, when 70% of the metagame is taken up by 11 decks there's not much room for innovation. It's hard to gain traction when being shoved around by 800-pound gorillas.

That Said...

This is all true and concerning in a vacuum. However, 2022 is the first year I'm gathering this type of data and watching it all happen in real-time. This kind of concentration might be relatively normal. However, I'm skeptical. Looking back at 2021, the top 11 decks for the whole year only amounted to ~48% of the year's metagame. The average percentage for MTGO so far is ~67% while paper is ~56%. It's going to take a major falloff of multiple currently Tier 1 decks for this concentration to not be maintained. Of course, 2021 was far from a typical year and so maybe that year being so unconcentrated was the deviant. I don't know.

Is There a Problem?

Murktide's individual metagame percentage coupled with the concentration of the top performing decks is concerning. This is balanced by each deck being fairly evenly matched, with no one deck winning events more than others. On the one hand, Murktide shows up in such high numbers in high-level events (despite never winning them) that it sure looks like it wins more than other decks. However, the deck has to earn all its wins—there are no freerolls in Murktide. I could go on like this for the rest of the article.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

It is obvious that this isn't a Splinter Twin or Eye of Ugin situation. Rather, the current metagame most closely resembles post-Eldrazi Winter 2016 Modern. There are a number of viable decks that are relatively well-balanced against each other, but the top deck is the popular, grindy midrange deck. Back then it was Jund, now it's UR Murktide. Gameplay-wise, they're quite similar with a matchup spread of 50% against everything.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodbraid Elf

Admittedly, Jund never had Murktide's popularity. That might be because playing blue cantrips is more appealing to many players than black discard. It could also be that Jund's price tag was more odious in 2016 than Murktide's in 2022. I have no way to know for certain, but it definitely isn't down to a better win percentage.

What Will Happen?

I'm not sure how this will ultimately shake out. There are good arguments for leaving Modern as is, however, history shows that Wizards doesn't like Modern's metagame to stay too stable for too long. They also don't like one deck being too popular forever. Of course, in previous times where that was an issue, said decks were also winning too much. Whether just being insanely popular is enough to warrant action is unknown. I foresee two possibilities:

1) Wizards Sleeps

If Wizards is fine with Modern as-is and doesn't intervene this current metagame will persist for the foreseeable future. I doubt there's anything waiting to massively shake up the metagame nor is there anything that will simply dethrone the established decks. They're all based around playing the most powerful and efficient cards possible. How does one improve on that?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

For Murktide to fall off independently of metagame changes would require player tastes to change. Again, it isn't a deck that wins too much, it just sees an inordinate amount of play because players like its gameplay. For that to change would require players to get bored and/or frustrated enough to abandon the deck completely. Unlikely, but not impossible.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Consider

On the other hand, the upcoming releases might have Modern playable cards. It's a little unlikely given the Alchemy nerfs to Unholy Heat and Dragon's Rage Channeler, but it's not impossible. Wizards designed these sets years ago, they wouldn't have known how Modern would turn out and could have left powerful cards. The problem is that, given Wizards' current design proclivities, it's more likely that new Modern cards would reinforce current gameplay rather than fight it. Wizards is in a cantrip and velocity-heavy period of design. This would tend to make Murktide a better/more popular deck, which just makes the problem worse.

2) Wizards Wakes

If Wizards instead decides that bans are necessary, it's hard to know how that'd go. Remember, Wizards doesn't like to outright kill decks unless absolutely necessary and wants to ban surgically. The question is what could be banned to make Modern less concentrated. Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer was on my list, and it's such a feels-bad card and potent threat it might be enough.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

The catch is that if Murktide is taken down a peg, what might rise in its place? I don't think 4-Color could, simply because it's so unstable. If it was going to consistently win and/or take over Modern, it should have done so already. However, it may be being held down by Murktide. In which case Wizards would need to nerf it too. Conveniently, Expressive Iteration is an important card the two decks share, so maybe that's a target.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Expressive Iteration

However, that's ignoring the impact that nerfing either deck could have on the cascade decks, not to mention Hammer Time. Hammer has already been the target of a ban this year and yet continues to thrive. What I'm saying is that it feels like Modern is heading towards another mass-spectrum ban. The top decks are sufficiently powerful to counteract and contain each other but far surpass the rest of Modern. Taking out one and leaving the others is very risky and Wizards showed itself to be risk averse last time.

An Odd Development

On that note, why did 4-Color Blink crash in July? I'm not being rhetorical, that's an actual question. For a deck to fall from an outlier to Tier 2 on MTGO is shocking enough, but there's no obvious cause for it to happen. Living End and Amulet Titan are up, and they're not great matchups for 4-Color, but aren't terrible either. Burn's a bad matchup and it fell too. Meanwhile, Grixis Shadow was rising and my impression is that it's a good matchup for Blink. The combined metagame forces would suggest that 4-Color Blink should have done better.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Death's Shadow

What definitely didn't happen online was 4-Color players switching from Ephemerate to Counterspell. 4-Color Control was slightly down from 2.70% to 2.51% on MTGO. That is accompanied by Blink falling ~6% from 9.98% in June to 3.77% in July. This leaves me wondering if Blink was just really badly positioned or if price fluctuations priced a lot of players out of the deck. Rental services can be harsh.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ephemerate

Players switching might explain the fall in paper, on the other hand. Control was up to 3.19% from 0.94% in June, a rise of 2.25%. Blink fell from 8.28% to 6.39%, a fall of 1.89%. Given that the decks are nearly identical, it is easy enough to swap a few cards around in paper, so players may have switched. I can't say for certain of course, but the theory's plausible.

Be Wary

As is tradition, I'll wrap up with a glimpse into my finance crystal ball. It advises caution. As noted above, Modern may be stable but it is very unlikely to persist. Whether something gets printed to shake things up or Wizards intervenes, there's no way the current metagame's spread will continue. I believe that any new cards are more likely to reinforce current trends than fight them given how Wizards has been designing over the past year. That would most likely lead to a short-term boost in Murktide play (and therefore staple prices) before crashing due to a banning. Whether that would affect other decks is impossible to say.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

Consequently, be cautious around Tier 1 decks. Wizards can just announce a ban out of nowhere and for any reason and while I don't think it is likely or soon, I do believe Modern is heading towards a ban. Maybe many. Thus, I'd cool any speculation or investment plans. Prices are fairly stable now, so there's not much opportunity in the first place. There's considerable price growth possible in the next few months, but be ready in case the rug gets pulled out.

Dark Clouds Building

Modern is in a great/terrible place. Players (generally) like the gameplay and deck interplay. However, the statistics on the format don't look good. This cannot remain as-is forever, so I'd make whatever preparations necessary before the actual storm breaks.

How I Would Beat Post Malone For $100K

Posted on August 4, 2022August 4, 2022 by Joe Mauri

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Attention Magic fans! Musical artist and fellow Magic aficionado Post Malone is engaging with the MTG community in a big way. You have a chance to play him and win $100,000. Besides being a huge publicity stunt for the Whatnot app, this is a chance to throw down in a contest of the ages for ultimate bragging rights. Let's talk strategy and winning that huge cash prize!

Which Deck Would You Play?

It depends. The rules are a little unclear. In a couple of articles it mentions a "match" and in others a "game." However, I would not play a four- or five-color deck for the plain fact that mana can be an issue. Everyone has lost to mana screw before, and there's no way I'd risk it here. Two or three colors is a lot safer. While I currently have a deck of each single color, they are just too limited in card selection.

First, Some Ground Rules

This is the part where details are a bit sketchy, but it looks like you're playing one game or potentially one match of 1v1 Commander for all the marbles. There's also this gem from the Official Rules: "Post Malone determines in his discretion that the Winner has won the Game." This is, in fact, the best super power.

With the data we have at hand, our next-best resources are EDREC for the saltiest cards and the French or Duel Commander banned list. These are some of the most powerful, impactful, and unfair cards available. When you bring a deck full of these cards to a 1v1, you are at a huge advantage versus an opponent that does not fight fire with fire.

The overall strategy should be total game control through either raw Counterspell power or hard stax prison elements. Which are the best commanders for that?

Winning at the Commander Selection Screen

These are the only three commanders I would consider, for several reasons. Both Edric, Spymaster of Trest and Derevi, Empyrial Tactician are banned in Duel Commander and Grand Arbiter Augustin IV is commonly considered to be oppressive. In many ways, they are all sort of the same card. Derevi allows you to play all three, which is a nice bonus for three colors.

I feel like my version of Edric could steal a game, but in a series, with any kind of swapping decks or alterations, it's the frailest. Meanwhile, both Derevi and Augustin would be more solid on average over a series, but be a lot less explosive in any given single game.

So we are potentially Azorious, Simic, or Bant. Here's why.

Blue Opens Up Free Counters

You have to play blue. Permission is the universal answer to nearly everything in Magic, and your opponent has an unlimited budget, so they could be playing anything. The only way to have an answer for everything and anything is to play blue, and with it free counterspells and the best two-mana counterspell in Mana Drain.

White Offers Removal and Control

Obviously, white has the most efficient removal in the game with Swords to Plowshares and Path to Exile. It also has low-cost stax effects like Drannith Magistrate and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. As a bonus, if you add blue, you get access to uncounterable spells like Supreme Verdict and Dovin's Veto, which is very important considering I assume my opponent will also play blue.

Green Means Ramp and Hate

Green has the best ramp for only one mana. Is that alone enough to legitimize playing it, though? How about some powerful, blue-centric hate on top of that? If I put my opponent on blue, there are very powerful cards green specifically brings to this matchup, and I want to play them.

Sorry, Rakdos Players!

Red and black? I just would not risk 100K on Lightning Bolt and Demonic Tutor, even if they are excellent cards. Some cards that are normally powerful like Dockside Extortionist, Jeska's Will, and Blasphemous Act are all much less effective when used in a 1v1. Furthermore, black brings the obvious to the table: a boatload of tutor effects, which is normally a good thing. But here, there's a problem.

Just Counter It

Regularly I counter a tutor instead of what was tutored up. This is contrary to normal Magic logic, and has tilted many players I've played. This is the right move in many cases in multiplayer, but not always. In a 1v1? It's correct every single time. The following cards, and cards like them, are why.

Countering lands is exceedingly difficult, and there are more than a few that can ruin your day. Either version of Boseiju can prove a massive headache in many scenarios. Cavern of Souls obviously gives your opponent uncounterable creatures for the rest of the game. Strip Mine can ruin your mana base and, if you have two lands up for a counter, they can kill one and then safely make their play.

Next, there are plenty of uncounterable spells, some of which we spoke about already. Allosaurus Shepherd turns every counter in your hand into a brick for the rest of the game. Talk about game-winning.

What about cards like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger or Emrakul, The Promised End that heavily impact the gamestate even when they do get countered? There are more than a few "when cast" cards that do not care about resolving.

Allowing an opponent to dig through their deck is a demonstrably bad idea. Keep this in mind and don't let them do it!

There's Jail, and There's Super Jail

We've talked a lot about how to control the game and not let our opponent get an early start by leaning into a controlling archetype. This begs the question of how we are going to close out the game. It's as simple as letting the other player quit. For $100,000, I'm not taking any chances. I am stacking the sandbags high until my arms fall off. The best part about these commanders, though, is that we have the potential to both pile on various stax effects and slowly win at the same time with creatures.

Ding Dong, Your Ability to Play Magic Is Gone

It's extremely hard to play Magic without mana. All of these cards do a very good job of removing mana from the equation. We are essentially countering or removing everything for the first few turns, and then attacking the mana base as of turn four. Finally, no matter which commander we pick, we are aided by untap effects, card draw, or cost reduction so we can always keep ahead of the curve.

Once the Lands Are Locked Down, the Wincon Emerges

Winning in twenty turns is still a win. I see no point in taking a risk, so any creature will do. Hatebears with stax effects will be more than adequate to take the win as a side effect of controlling the game. Simple and effective, "bears" have been finishing games since '93.

Good Luck Out There!

Even assuming that the number of people following Mr. Post on Whatnot doubles in the next day before selection, each person would have a 1 in 20,000 chance to get invited. This is a lot more probable than winning the lottery. If you were lucky enough to be picked, what deck would you bring versus Post Malone? Let me know in the comments.

A Guide to Cutting Your Shipping Costs

Posted on August 3, 2022August 3, 2022 by David Schumann

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Way back in 2018, I wrote about maximizing card shipments with a standard USPS forever stamp. The purpose of that article was to help reduce shipping costs on low-value, multi-card orders. It dawned on me recently that I haven't actually written any articles specifically focused on helping sellers reduce costs. I have always been someone who is conscious of price, so I hope you enjoy reading about optimizing your cost reduction as much as I enjoy writing about it.

One key thing to remember about shipping costs is that they provide no additional benefit to the customer once the product arrives, so their only value is protecting the goods on the way to the customer. While valuable, the takeaway of this preamble is that the benefits end when the customer opens the package and retrieves their goods.

Buy In Bulk

Many of you may have memberships to bulk discount stores. The two big ones we have here in the US are Sam's Club and Costco. While it isn't always true, most of the time, buying large quantities of a product tends to be cheaper per unit. Here are some examples:

Bubble Mailers

I could go into my local Walmart and buy bubble mailers for my $50+ orders that I want to make sure are protected and tracked. As you can see by the simple breakdown, buying 2 means they are $0.57 each; buying 10 means they are $0.516 each. I don't know why buying 12 is actually more expensive per unit than 10, but it's likely due to the fact that many people don't actually break prices down and instead just assume it's a better deal. So consider that a lesson within a lesson: always price compare by a standard unit of measurement!

If I don't need the mailer immediately and can afford to wait a few days, I can go to Amazon and buy a 50 pack for $9.59. This has a unit cost of $0.19 each.

By buying your mailers in bulk, you can save $0.30 or more per order, which can really add up over a year's worth of sales. I looked at last year's sales and found that I had 44 orders that required bubble mailers, meaning I saved $13.20 over the year.

Look for Cheaper Alternatives

Many sellers may remember that about 6 months after COVID-19 hit the US, top loaders dried up. The cost of polycarbonate skyrocketed due to strong demand for face shields and the guarding that many stores put up as barriers to help reduce the spread of the disease. This meant the big top loader manufacturers were unable to source the material needed to manufacture top loaders and they were pushed down the waiting list given the importance of the other items soaking up all the available material. Looking at BCW's website, they are still back ordered well into 2023. Looking at their "best deal," new top loaders would come out to $0.1124 per if you bought 1000 and could wait until January.

If you wanted to find new top loaders that are readily available, it appears the current going rate is right around $0.14 each.

Used Over New

Prior to the Pandemic, used top loaders were far more available and cheaper than new ones. I used to buy large boxes of them off of eBay.

These top loaders came out to right under $0.09 per, which was pretty typical for what I would pay for them when buying larger boxes. Occasionally, a few might be warped enough that I wouldn't want to risk putting a card in them, but that wasn't common enough to really cause me to rethink my purchasing strategy. Interestingly, a similar sale ended just a few days ago in which the total cost of 600 used Top Loaders was $70.50, which comes out to $0.1175 per.

Cardboard Sleeves

There was a big push by many of the larger retailers to find reliable sources of card shipping protection, and many ended up turning to cardboard sleeves like the ones shown below, which come out to $0.1244 per. Looking over Amazon's listing of cardboard sleeves, the non-bulk options end up costing a bit more at around $0.15 per.

It's important to point out that a lot of the price differences shown so far aren't vastly different, and for small-time sellers, it may not be worth the time to put too much effort into optimizing these costs. However, for larger sellers, these costs can be significant. A $0.05 savings on 1000 orders equates to $50, or to a $500 savings on 10,000 orders.

Free Is the Best Price

One of the challenges I faced throughout the early parts of the pandemic was shipping material shortages. As I previously mentioned, a lot of people shifted from plastic to cardboard sleeve protection simply due to no top loaders being available. I ran through that box of used top loaders sometime around August 2020. One day while packing up our recycling to take to the recycling center, I realized that I was essentially throwing away tons of potential card sleeves in the form of various boxes my family had used up. I started cutting up cereal boxes and found I could get between 8 to 10 "sleeves" from a given cereal box.

Now, not only do I keep my heart healthy by eating a box of cereal, I also save an additional $1.24 on shipping materials. Obviously, this does require some effort on my part by cutting up the boxes, but it's something that can easily be done while watching Netflix with my wife so really there is no loss of free time on my part. It may also be apparent that this is something that works well for a smaller store with a limited number of daily or weekly orders, but might be difficult to scale. However, I would suggest that store owners who don't mind putting in this effort consider asking customers to donate cereal boxes or similar style boxes, or even offer some minor reward (say, a free drink or snack for every 10-20 boxes).

A Penny Sleeve Saved...

This article features plenty of tiny numbers, but also some bigger ones. That's because those small costs can really add up, and it pays (literally) to be proactive about streamlining your shipping costs when selling cards online. Have you tried out any of the above ideas? Are you suddenly craving cereal? Got any great tips of your own to share? Drop a comment below and let us know!

Magical Creatures: Tempest’s Thalakos and Soltari

Posted on August 3, 2022August 3, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

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Hello everybody, and welcome to a new installment of Magical Creatures. In this series, we comprehensively analyze each creature type specific to the Magic universe. With every piece comes an expansion. We started with Antiquities, and last time, discussed the new types introduced with Mirage.

Mirage was the first expansion in a three-set block, but we won't touch the other two (Visions and Weatherlight). Even though they both introduced several new creature types (such as Chimera and Jellyfish), none were unique to this game. Sorry, Avizoa fans!

Today, we'll jump straight into Tempest, from 1997. The last set of that year was also the first set in the Rath cycle (followed by smaller sets Stronghold and Exodus, both from 1998). Tempest introduced no less than 5 new creature types unique to the Magic: The Gathering franchise, even though a few clarifications need to be made. But first, let's take a look at the set itself, and see what it brought to the game.

Tempest and the Rath Cycle

Released in October 1997, Tempest is the 12th Magic set. Its 350 cards were not only sold in starter decks and booster packs, but also in preconstructed decks. The set's new mechanics were buyback and shadow. The first one was not all that successful, although it did contribute to a very strong card in Sprout Swarm (discussed in detail a few weeks ago alongside Thrulls, Homarids and Saprolings). The second one is just another evasive ability, like flying and fear, but only ever appeared in the Rath cycle, excluding a few exceptions.

But what about the new creature types? Tempest introduced Crab and Shapeshifter, which we won't take into account since they are not specific to this game. But it also introduced Licid, Spike, and notably, one of the most prolific and beloved creature types of all time!

Subtypes Added Retroactively

Wait... three? Didn't I say five? The fact is the other two types (Soltari and Thalakos) did not exist right away. They were retroactively added with the advent of Time Spiral. For instance, neither Soltari Priest nor Thalakos Sentry featured the relevant subtype on paper, although their races appeared in the name of the cards. At least, not in their original version from Tempest. Something similar would happen again with the subtype Kor, which we'll circle back to in a future article.

Since five new types is quite a lot, and given that the final tribe is especially storied, we'll split this set into two separate articles. Today's will discuss Soltari and Thalakos, while next week's will focus on the others.

Soltari

Soltari is a white creature type not unlike Spirit. Its creatures are all white, with the lone exception of Soltari Guerillas being both white and red. They all feature the keyword shadow. Lastly, they all come from the Rath cycle. Only ten cards exist with this creature type: eight from Tempest, one from Stronghold, and one from Exodus. No more Soltari were printed, apart from a reprint of Soltari Priest in Time Spiral and a couple more reprints in Vintage Masters.

All in, the Soltari tribe looks proves quite consistent. They are all low-curve white creatures that make for decent beaters, especially considering shadow. None of them has ever been particularly successful, at least in the competitive environment. However, shadow can be a popular keyword with casual players, and there are enough Soltari in existence to make a tribal deck.

Thalakos

Thalakos is something of a blue analogue to Soltari, as they also represent Spirit-like beings and its cards have shadow. They are basically shadow creatures trapped on the plane of Rath. Only seven cards exist with this subtype, and they again all come from the Rath cycle: four from Tempest, one from Stronghold, and two from Exodus.

It's another consistent tribe, but if I must be honest, they are not that interesting. The only aspect that differentiates them from the Soltari is their sneaky quality, which is in line with blue's color pie identity. Apart from that, they are just another shade of shadow creature, caught between the planes, and not really able to interact with the world at large.

They shadow keyword prevents all these creatures from being blocked by creatures without shadow, but it also prevents them from blocking creatures that don't have shadow. While flavorful when it comes to illustrating a creature caught between planes, the absence of interaction has never been good on a Magic card. That's why most people despise combo decks, especially those not allowing the opponent any kind of counterplay. And that's why some of them were banned (think of the infamous deck Eggs). Even newer players often grimace when met with a creature that "can't be blocked," as such texts suppresses a key element of the game.

Two Colours, One Fate

Initially, these creatures could be identified as Soltari and Thalakos solely because those respective tribes appeared in their names, but they didn't actually carry those subtypes. Things changed with the Grand Creature Type Update, as has become a theme in this series!

The only difference is that Soltari got the subtype a year earlier than Thalakos, since Time Spiral (2006) reprinted Soltari Priest. Its typeline read not Summon Cleric, but rather Creature – Soltari Cleric. Poor Thalakos had to wait until Lorwyn (2007).

Do you have a preference between these two oft-forgotten tribes? Have you ever sleeved one up? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, and stay tuned for next piece, where we'll do a 180 and dive into one of Magic's most beloved creature types... Sliver!

July ’22 Metagame Update: Izzet Over Yet?

Posted on August 2, 2022August 1, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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Welcome to August. While those of us in the education field look with a mix of trepidation and anticipation toward the upcoming return of school, the Magic world is looking forward to the remaining RCQs of the season. This is having a substantial impact on my metagame update as paper Magic is having its best month by far. In fact, paper Magic has been steadily increasing across platforms since January and it is looking like the old times are back. Now if only there were Grands Prix again.

Guess What?

Yes, there are still outliers in the data. UR Murktide is still an absurdly overrepresented deck despite an overall mediocre win rate without many high-level wins. I still say it isn't Tier 0 as a result.

I saw a Twitter thread a week or so ago of players complaining about the deck and not for the reason I expected. They weren't upset to be playing against it, they were frustrated Murktide players. Turns out the ostensible best deck in Modern is quite hard to actually win with and they weren't having much success. I wish I'd archived the thread, I found their complaining hilarious.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

The overall outlier situation is both better and worse. It's better since there are fewer outliers. Hammer Time continues to be a Magic: Online (MTGO) only outlier, but it is also the only other outlier. 4-Color Blink crashed rather hard this month. It's worse in that the scale of Murktide's outlier status is getting more extreme, as will become clear from the data tables. Particularly on MTGO.

As always, the outliers are excluded from the actual statistical analysis. They’re reported in their correct place on the metagame chart.

July Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce in a given month. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list. Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least 2 standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.

The MTGO Population Data

In July the adjusted average population was 6.38 setting the Tier 3 cutoff at 7 decks. It's trending back towards the average in the Lurrus of the Dream-Den era. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting 7 results. The STdev was 8.58, which means that Tier 3 runs to 16 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 17 results and runs to 26. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 27 decks are required.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ledger Shredder

To recap, January had 502 decks, February had 436 decks, March only hit 356, April was up to 437, May had 419, and June had 481 total decks on MTGO, a local high. July nearly matched June with 478 decks, which is statistically tied. That's clearly within the margin of error and down to natural fluctuations. I also didn't find any non-Wizards online events to include. There may have been some, but I didn't see them.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	93	19.46
Hammer Time	53	11.09
Grixis Shadow	34	7.11
Yawgmoth	32	6.69
Living end	30	6.28
Tier 2
Amulet Titan	25	5.23
Burn	22	4.60
4-Color Blink	18	3.77
Tier 3
Glimpse Combo	16	3.35
Temur Creativity	16	3.35
4-Color Control	12	2.51
Mono-Green Tron	11	2.30
Cascade Crashers	10	2.09
UW Urza	10	2.09
UW Control	10	2.09
4-Color Creativity	7	1.46

So, yeah. Murktide is nearly 20% of the MTGO metagame, up 5% from June. Again, I have no idea why except that players want to play Murktide. It can't be for strategic advantage or it being clearly better than other decks.

A consequence of this appears to be that the field is shrinking. I only recorded 54 unique decks in July compared to June's 66. Similarly, there are only 16 decks on the Tier list compared to 23. That's a substantial fall-off and may be the biggest problem with current Modern. There's just no physical room for innovation to thrive.

The Paper Population Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tiers, just with different data. More paper events are reported each month, but they rarely report more than the Top 8 (sometimes less). However, that doesn't mean that the overall population is lower. Indeed, paper Modern is far more popular than online, and the data reflects this fact. There are 783 decks in July compared to June's 640 decks. I recorded 105 unique decks, up from 89 in June. The RCQs and SCG Cons helped, but it is clear that paper Magic is far more open and engaging than MTGO.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

Paper's adjusted average decks were 6.95, meaning the starting point is 7 decks. It increasingly looks like paper will always have a higher average than MTGO. The STDev is 11.98, so Tier 3 runs from 7 to 19 decks. Tier 2 begins with 20 decks and runs to 32, and Tier 1 requires 33 decks. It will take most of the year to know whether these are indicative of what paper Modern "should" look like. 22 decks made the paper population tier, which is down from June's total. The reason this happened is clear in the data, but not why.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	102	13.02
4-Color Blink	50	6.39
Cascade Crashers	49	6,26
Yawgmoth	48	6.13
Hammer Time	48	6.13
Burn	40	5.11
Amulet Titan	39	4.98
Living end	35	4.47
Tier 2
Grixis Shadow	32	4.09
UW Control	30	3.83
4-Color Control	25	3.19
Tier 3
Affinity	19	2.43
Mono-Green Tron	18	2.30
Rakdos Rock	17	2.17
Temur Creativity	15	1.92
Glimpse Combo	13	1.66
Merfolk	11	1.40
Eldrazi Tron	9	1.15
Manufactor Combo	9	1.15
Jund	9	1.15
Wishshift	7	0.89
UW Urza	7	0.89

Murktide is still absurdly overrepresented, but the overall picture is better. The gap between Murktide and Blink is much smaller and Murktide represents far less of the overall metagame. However, there is a massive gap in the middle of the metagame. The data is clustered near the top and bottom of the scale with only one deck getting results in the 20s. This is a sign (but not proof of) polarization in the Modern metagame.

July Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into the Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8's. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential.

The MTGO Power Tiers

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There was only one 4-point event in May and one 5-pointer. Both were Showcase Challenges.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Death's Shadow

Thanks to the larger Showcase, total points are up to 871 from 787. The adjusted average points were 11.60. Therefore 12 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 16.47, which is relatively normal. Thus add 17 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 29 points. Tier 2 starts with 30 points and runs to 47. Tier 1 requires at least 48 points. There was some movement between tiers, but the composition is the same as for the population.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	170	19.52
Hammer Time	98	11.25
Yawgmoth	64	7.35
Living end	60	6.89
Grixis Shadow	52	5.97
Amulet Titan	48	5.51
Tier 2
Burn	44	5.05
4-Color Blink	42	4.82
Tier 3
Temur Creativity	27	3.10
Glimpse Combo	26	2.99
4-Color Control	26	2.99
Cascade Crashers	23	2.64
Mono-Green Tron	22	2.53
UW Urza	18	2.07
UW Control	15	1.72
4-Color Creativity	14	1.61

In a twist, the outlier gap is basically the same in paper as MTGO. For once, Murktide and Hammer showed up more in Preliminaries than they did in the Challenge data. They were still heavily involved in the Challenges, but not quite as much as in previous months. Whether this means anything is unclear.

The Paper Power Tiers

Unlike with population, the paper power data works differently than the equivalent MTGO data. The data reported is usually limited to Top 8 lists, even for big events. Not that I know how big most events are, that number doesn't always get reported. In other cases, decks are missing. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award and there are data gaps.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End

Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results. Based on what I've seen actually reported and what I can expect to be reported in the foreseeable future, I'm updating how points are awarded. For events that don't report their starting populations or are under 50 players, I'm giving out 1 point. 51-300 players get 2 points. 301 and above will get 3 points. I chose these levels based on the rarity of events over 300 compared to 100-200 and the fact that events under 300 tend to be local events in large cities. It feels like it should be 300 for truly unique events, despite there being no Grand Prix yet. I am open to reevaluating the point awards as paper Magic play evolves.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

There were a huge number of events awarding 2 points in July and several 3-point events as well. All together there's a total of 1122 points in July.

The adjusted average points were 9.99. This sets the cutoff at 10 decks. The STDev was 17.83, thus adding 18 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 28 points. Tier 2 starts with 29 points and runs to 47. Tier 1 requires at least 48 points. This is quite high, but then again there's never been this many points awarded.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	142	12.66
4-Color Blink	81	7.22
Hammer Time	71	6.33
Cascade Crashers	70	6,24
Yawgmoth	66	5.88
Amulet Titan	62	5.53
Burn	61	5.44
Living end	50	4.46
Tier 2
UW Control	46	4.10
Grixis Shadow	41	3.65
4-Color Control	37	3.30
Tier 3
Affinity	28	2.49
Mono-Green Tron	24	2.14
Temur Creativity	24	2.14
Rakdos Rock	21	1.87
Glimpse Combo	19	1.69
Merfolk	15	1.34
Eldrazi Tron	14	1.25
Manufactor Combo	13	1.16
UW Urza	13	1.16
Jund	12	1.07

Again, there are weird gaps all over the place. I don't know why they keep happening, but it is what it is.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing it by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual. Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind, and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa. How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a deck's position is on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.

I'll begin with the average for MTGO:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
4-Color Blink	2.33	2
Cascade Crashers	2.30	3
4-Color Control	2.17	3
Yawgmoth	2.00	1
Living end	2.00	1
Burn	2.00	2
Mono-Green Tron	2.00	3
4-Color Creativity	2.00	3
Amulet Titan	1.92	1
Hammer Time	1.85	1
UR Murktide	1.83	1
UW Urza	1.80	3
Baseline	1.73
Temur Creativity	1.69	3
Glimpse Combo	1.63	3
Grixis Shadow	1.53	1
UW Control	1.50	3

Congratulations to Yawgmoth pile and Living End, you're tied for the best-performing deck online. Worth noting that Murktide's performance was on the relatively low end of the scale.

Then the average for paper:

Deck Name	Total #	Power Tier
UW Urza	1.86	3
4-Color Blink	1.62	1
Temur Creativity	1.60	3
Amulet Titan	1.59	1
Eldrazi Tron	1.55	3
UW Control	1.53	2
Burn	1.52	1
Hammer Time	1.48	1
4-Color Control	1.48	2
Affinity	1.47	3
Glimpse Combo	1.46	3
Manufactor Combo	1.44	3
Cascade Crashers	1.43	1
Living end	1.43	1
UR Murktide	1.39	1
Yawgmoth	1.37	1
Baseline	1.36
Merfolk	1.36	3
Mono-Green Tron	1.33	3
Jund	1.33	3
Grixis Shadow	1.28	2
Rakdos Rock	1.24	3

4-Color Blink is the deck of the month for the second month in a row in paper. It's an easier pill to swallow now that it's not an outlier.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. So, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug; it's a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	MTGO Pop Tier	MTGO Power Tier	MTGO Average Tier	Paper Pop Tier	Paper Power Tier	Paper Average Tier	Composite Tier
UR Murktide	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Hammer Time	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Yawgmoth	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Living end	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Amulet Titan	2	1	1.5	1	1	1	1.25
Grixis Shadow	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.50
Burn	2	2	2	1	1	1	1.50
4-Color Blink	2	2	2	1	1	1	1.50
Cascade Crashers	3	3	3	1	1	1	2.00
4-Color Control	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
UW Control	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.50
Glimpse Combo	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Temur Creativity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Mono-Green Tron	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
UW Urza	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
4-Color Creativity	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Affinity	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Rakdos Rock	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Merfolk	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Eldrazi Tron	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Manufactor Combo	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
UW Urza	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Wishshift	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	N/A	3.5	3.75

Tier 1 does get slightly shaken up in July with Blink falling into Tier 1.5. However, the overall stability of Modern is maintained.

It Continues

Modern remains relatively stable. Th format appears quite a diverse, and people seem to enjoy it. On the other hand though, when one deck represents about 20% of the metagame, that indicates something is clearly wrong. We'll have to wait and see if Wizards thinks the same.

Top 4 RCQ Finish: Modern 4c Creativity

Posted on August 2, 2022August 1, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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Another weekend and another top finish, this time with Indomitable Creativity combo at the Untapped Games RCQ! I've been a big fan of this archetype lately and think it's a strong contender in the current metagame. In fact, there were three Creativity decks in the top eight of this event, and one player on Esper Reanimator. That makes a total of 16 copies of Archon of Cruelty cashing this event, so it was clearly a good day to go big.

What Does It Do?

The Creativity deck utilizes token producers such as Dwarven Mine and Hard Evidence to cheat out (often multiple) Archon of Cruelty, wreaking havoc on the opponent's hand, board, and life total.

With cards like Prismari Command and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki, the deck has enough treasures and loot effects to reliably cast drawn Archons, or reanimate them with Persist. Ultimately, this makes for a speedy combo deck with grindy, late-game appeal.

What I Like

Flexibility

As I mentioned above, the Creativity deck is surprisingly flexible, despite being based around a four-mana, sorcery speed combo. Creativity targets both artifacts and creatures and has the potential to target more than one permanent. This makes it easy to play around removal spells like Lightning Bolt or Force of Vigor from the opponent by targeting diverse token types.

Indomitable Creativity is also not limited to permanents controlled by the caster. With enough mana, the Creativity player can tutor out their Archons and destroy an opposing Ensnaring Bridge or Grafdigger's Cage in the process.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archon of Cruelty

Grindiness

There are also multiple grindy elements to the deck that both help to fill out the curve and threaten to snowball, forcing the opponent to go shields down to deal with them. Wrenn and Six and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki both fall into this category.

Wrenn ensures her controller never misses a land drop. With every land in the deck being a mountain, it guarantees Dwarven Mine is online starting turn four. This churns out combo fodder and instant speed chump blockers that can protect Wrenn while advancing to her emblem. These tokens also pressure opposing planeswalkers like Teferi, Time Raveler without going down on cards. Late game, Wrenn can cycle a tri-land and pick it back up from the graveyard to draw additional cards and improve card quality.

Fable of the Mirror Breaker puts two bodies into play that can't be answered profitably, fixes draws, creates a mana advantage, and takes over the game if left alone. Every resource used to answer either of these cards is one that's not pointed at the Archons.

And, although Solitude is one of the most played removal spells in Modern and can remove an Archon, it's often cast at card disadvantage through its evoke cost. If an opponent wants to spend two cards to kill my creature that has drawn me a card, made them discard, and sacrifice a creature or planeswalker, I'll gladly take a five-for-one, then line up the combo again for the following turn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

Sideboard

The sideboard mostly amounts to saying "don't touch me". It hosts eight functional counterspells in the form of Mystical Dispute, Flusterstorm, Veil of Summer, and Tamiyo's Safekeeping. Each of these works on a slightly different axis and protects from opposing interaction. The remaining cards are boilerplate interaction for fast decks that try to go under the combo like Hammer Time. Ancient Grudge, Boseiju, Who Endures, and Dress Down provide a critical mass of interaction while Leyline of the Void can high roll Living End opponents.

What I Don't Like

The interaction in the deck is fairly bare-bones. Two Spell Pierce, four Lightning Bolt, and a few copies of Prismari Command is all there is. Any deck with a fast clock that fights on an axis where these cards aren't meaningful poses a threat. Amulet Titan is perhaps one of the biggest concerns in this regard. Burn typically also presents lethal a turn before the combo is ready to go off, and can reliably kill creature tokens to disrupt the combo.

Incidentally, Mill is another concern. This build only has Archon as the combo target, so a well-timed Surgical Extraction is going to end the game without much of a fight.

The deck relies on the power of Archon of Cruelty in its near-entirety to win. If Archon isn't a concern for the opponent's strategy, it may be a rough match.

The Deck

4C Creativity Combo-Adam Cohen

Creatures

4 Archon of Cruelty

Spells

4 Indomitable Creativity

2 Transmogrify

4 Explore

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Hard Evidence

1 Persist

3 Prismari Command

2 Spell Pierce

Planeswalkers

4 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

4 Fable of the Mirror Breaker

Lands

1 Blood Crypt

2 Stomping Ground

2 Steam Vents

1 Scalding Tarn

2 Bloodstained Mire

4 Arid Mesa

4 Wooded Foothills

4 Dwarven Mine

1 Mountain

1 Ketria Triome

1 Ziatora's Proving Ground

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

Sideboard

1 Ancient Grudge

1 Dress Down

2 Leyline of the Void

3 Veil of Summer

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

2 Force of Vigor

2 Mystical Dispute

2 Flusterstorm

1 Tamiyo's Safekeeping

End Step

I think the shell of this deck is extremely potent, but I don't think the list I played was entirely perfect. I found that there weren't enough green spells in the deck to warrant Force of Vigor in the board. Instead, a third Flusterstorm to combat the cascade decks and Nature's Claim might be the better option.

Some lists are playing Emrakul, the Aeons Torn as another Creativity hit, but I'm not convinced it's necessary. In fact, Progenitus may be the better option as it doesn't get answered by Solitude or Teferi Time Raveler. Alternatively, Sundering Titan can also be a lights-out threat against decks like 4C Control.

I'm also interested in finding room in the main deck for a few copies of Strike it Rich as another cheap token generator that fixes mana from under a Blood Moon while also bumping up the clock to beat the faster decks.

I plan to keep tinkering with the archetype and I'll post my updates on Twitter at @AdamECohen. Be sure to follow me there to stay up to date with any changes during this RCQ season. Catch you all next week!

Good Times and Valuable Reflections from a Home-Made GP

Posted on August 1, 2022July 31, 2022 by Robert Genuario

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Earlier this summer, I hosted a homemade tournament with seven friends. Grand Prix Bristol, as it was dubbed, consisted of three different draft formats: Modern Masters 1 (MMA), Time Spiral Remastered (TSR), and Kamigawa Neon Dynasty (NEO). We selected the formats democratically, drawing from the reserves of draft sets we had accumulated over the years. Excitement bristled as we counted down the days to the event.

The play was competitive, the attitudes were positive and respectful, and merriment was had by all. Overall, the event was a blast and is destined to become an annual tradition. It united old friends and even had a hint of high-stakes, as a "trophy" was purchased to crown the GP Champion.

If you take one thing away from this article, it should be that events like this are worth having. They can be difficult to organize, but they are worth that investment. Moreover, the event brought up a number of lessons that I was able to use to navigate these three formats. Every draft has a story and there were several to learn from throughout the course of the day.

Draft #1: Modern Masters

MMA is a format driven by ten streamlined archetypes but littered with powerful individual cards. Regrettably, I didn't open a bomb, but I had the wherewithal to navigate the format with patience. My first five picks spanned all five colors. By collecting a number of good cards, I felt prepared for whatever pathway opened up before me.

Equilibrium Theory

I have a theory about draft, but it's largely untested.

Oftentimes, I feel like there is a disconnect between the perception of decks being good and/or bad and the actual success rates of these decks. Additionally, I believe that this discrepancy emerges far more often when players play in pods.

There are multiple reasons why someone might believe they have a strong deck, but the most common one is that the colors were open. When our colors are open, that leads to passing good cards of other colors to players who are clearly not drafting the same colors, synergies, or strategies we are. We get the cards we want, but our opponents get the cards they want as well.

In short, if our colors are open, it is very likely that our neighbors are enjoying the same experience from their seats. If we find ourselves battling it out over an archetype, we also send mixed signals for our neighbors to decipher. It's rare for a draft to have one player with a great deck, surrounded by multiple bad ones. While the outcome will never be perfectly equitable, it's good to keep in mind that if the draft was hard, it was probably hard for everyone else at the table as well.

Five picks into my first draft, I didn't know my colors, but I heard voices from around the table echoing a similar sentiment. In the first few picks of pack two, I started moving towards a white/black deck, and I committed by the start of pack three. Judging by the table talk, the rest of the table also appeared to settle in by this point.

Know the Archetypes, Find the Archetypes, and When Necessary, Blend the Archetypes

I intentionally avoided red-white Giants, passing multiple Thundercloud Shaman. I have a vague memory of this archetype, being one of the weakest in the format. If I was supposed to be in the deck, I would determine that by evidence found later in the pack.

The strongest card I saw was Divinity of Pride. In pack one, I surrounded it with some mediocre removal and Rogues, though black-white really wants to be in Rebels, and Divinity of Pride really wants to be in black-white. Those colors were contested, but nothing else seemed particularly open. Packs two and three yielded more Rebels, and my deck ended up something of a hybrid. It had a small Rebel package, decent removal, some powerful Rogues, and a single Avian Changeling to tie the room together.

The Deck

BW Rebel-Rogues

Creatures

1 Veteran Armorer

1 Rathi Trapper

1 Amrou Scout

3 Blightspeaker

1 Tidehollow Sculler

1 Saltfield Recluse

1 Amrou Seekers

2 Thieving Sprite

1 Avian Changeling

1 Marsh Flitter

1 Warren Pilferer

1 Street Wraith

1 Divinity of Pride

1 Earwig Squad

1 Ivory Giant

Sorcery

2 Phthisis

Instants

1 Death Rattle

1 Drag Down

Enchantment

1 Bound in Silence

Land

1 Blinkmoth Nexus

8 Swamp

8 Plains

My deck was solid but not great. Avian Changeling was the MVP, as it was an evasive creature that I could tutor out with my Rebels, and a Rogue that could activate the prowl on Earwig Squad. More Rebels would have been nice, but I went 3-0 in the draft, miraculously beating a Sword of Light and Shadow in the finals (which my opponent played all three games).

Though I eventually found an open archetype, I had to get very creative to complete the deck. It wasn't truly a Rebel deck, it wasn't truly a Rogue deck, but it utilized overlapping synergies well enough to 3-0.

Draft #2: Time Spiral Remastered

After going 3-0 in MMA, I fixed my sights squarely on the trophy. I've never drafted Time Spiral Remastered (TSR) though, so I was headed into the format completely blind. My first pick was difficult, but I settled on Arch of Orazca. This card kept me open and could be a source of card advantage. Because the original Time Spiral format was so dated, I assumed having a resource of this nature would be valuable. My second pick was a Dismember which further kept me open, though I was looking to be in a more controlling shell.

I found very good green cards to pair with my first picks and this provided a direction. Blue was clearly open towards the end of the pack, so I paired the two colors and began building a strong deck. While I wasn't sure of the format's nature, the deck I was building had a direction. Simply put, the plan was to overrun my opponent with an onslaught of value creatures. This archetype found some payoffs in Beast Whisperer, Aeon Chronicler, and two copies of Magus of the Future. I assembled a pile of above-rate creatures capable of drawing my entire deck.

G/U Creatures ft. Dismember

Creatures

2 Coral Trickster

1 Errant Ephemeron

1 Giant Dustwasp

1 Spinneret Sliver

1 Riftwing Cloudskate

1 Mire Boa

1 Thornweald Archer

3 Nantuko Shaman

1 Spiketail Hatchling

2 Kavu Primarch

2 Penumbra Spider

1 Sporesower Thallid

1 Beast Whisperer

2 Magus of the Future

1 Aeon Chronicler

1 Jodah's Avenger

Non-Creatures

1 Dismember

Lands

1 Arch of Orazca

1 Terramorphic Expanse

8 Island

7 Forest

Rely On Macro-Archetypes In Unfamiliar Metas...

This deck looked like a success. Not only was I in open colors, but the table opened really strong green and blue cards in packs two and three. One of the first rules of Draft is to always have a plan. Each format provides its own premium archetypes and rules of engagement. We've talked about formats where control decks are unreliable and ones where certain colors should be heavily prioritized. However, the absence of this information should never equate to the absence of a plan.

Building an aggressive deck, relying on card advantage and removal, or ramping into powerful endgames are all examples of macro-archetypes. Usually, the cards that make them work will be available in a given draft format. This framework can help you find a deck that makes sense, though if you find two open colors with strong card quality, you will probably thrive regardless.

...But Knowing the Format is a Real Advantage

My first loss was a decisive one. It came in the second round of the second draft and ended in a swift 2-0 against an awesome black-white aggressive deck. Even though I specifically stocked my main deck with two-drops to interact on this level, my ignorance of the format was exposed. My opponent's flanking creatures made light work of my Mire Boa and Coral Tricksters. Knight of the Holy Nimbus and Benalish Cavalry paired with well-timed removal spells to knock me out. When I thought I stabilized in game two a Crovax, Ascendant Hero came out of nowhere to decimate my blocks. Tough beats, but you can't win them all.

My opponent had a better understanding of the format than most of the table. He had brought the packs and drafted the format previously. While I had a fine strategy and good cards to execute it, knowing the way interaction stacks up in the format and the over-performing cards and archetypes proved to be very valuable.

I Salvaged a 2-1 out of this draft after sideboarding in a Crookclaw Transmuter to help me get through a Stuffy Doll in my third round opponent's Sliver deck. Still, at 5-1 on the day, I needed to 2-1 the next draft to guarantee the trophy. A 1-2 finish could lead to a tie. This is where things took a turn for worse.

Draft #3 Kamigawa Neon Dynasty

Of all the day's formats, this was the one I knew best. I'm familiar with all the archetypes and am happy to play any of them. When I saw my first pick I was ecstatic. Brilliant Restoration is a card that I wanted to draft around when I first saw the set. On Arena, I had gotten a chance, and I pieced together one for the ages.

Recreating this deck to lock up the trophy became my one and only goal. Nothing could be more perfect, so I moved forward with my plan. Unfortunately, my desperation to recreate the past led me astray.

Brilliant Restoration Might Not Be The Bomb I Thought It Was

Creatures

1 Automated Artificer

1 Papercraft Decoy

1 Nezumi Bladeblesser

1 Mukotai Ambusher

1 Moonsnare Specialist

2 Shrine Steward

1 Saiba Trespassers

1 Sunblade Samurai

1 Mirrorshell Crab

Enchantments

1 The Modern Age

1 Clawing Torment

1 Born to Drive

1 Twisted Embrace

1 The Long Reach of Night

1 Inventive Iteration

Artifacts

1 Ecologist's Terrarium

1 Network Terminal

1 Prodigy's Prototype

Instants

2 Wanderer's Intervention

1 Repel the Vile

Sorcery

1 Brilliant Restoration

Lands

1 Tranquil Cove

5 Swamp

4 Island

7 Plains

Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Outcomes

Over-committing to my first pick was a huge mistake. I should have been in a UR artifacts deck, which was very clear when I tabled an Enthusiastic Mechanaut pack three. I felt the error of my ways in round one. My first opponent also played a black/white deck, however, his featured a much stronger and more aggressive card pool. Soundly defeated, I was unsure how my deck could win a single game in the ultimate draft. I had few creatures and my strategy was extremely inconsistent.

Be Clear, Focused, and Purposeful

After a grueling day of Draft, my brain was fried. Conversely, my next opponent, piloting a very unique green/blue ninjas deck, was exceptionally sharp. He communicated his actions clearly and played purposefully. A long day had taken its toll and I was struggling to even keep track of my land drops. When I did take my time, I felt lost in the permutations of each individual play, struggling to find the right line. I would be lying if I said I never felt this way in the closing rounds of a real GP.

Game two against the ninjas player was a slog that I was able to win because of my two most powerful cards. Brilliant Restoration and Inventive Iteration took over and I was able to ride them to force game three. In our final game, I was able to take a controlling position, and my opponent flooded out. I did not play particularly well in this round but was lucky to come away with the win.

However, in round three I did my best to emulate my previous opponent's professionalism. Stealing that win reinvigorated me for this final battle. Against my final opponent's aggressive red/white deck, Wanderer's Intervention bought me the time I needed and I was able to draw the best parts of my deck to win in two straight games.

While I don't like to dwell on softer skills in my articles, I'm compelled to recognize this one. Communicating your actions clearly helps organize the minutia of the game. Magic: the Gathering is a complicated game. Deliberate communication helps us navigate and process those complications. I salvaged this draft because of what I learned in round two. Had I continued to play on auto-pilot, I would not have been able to walk away as the champion.

To Make A Long Story Short, I Bought Myself a Playmat

Winning my own trophy felt wonderful but not nearly as wonderful as spending a day with good friends playing great games. Furthermore, jumping feet-first into a bunch of random formats for a (sort of) legitimate prize was a great experience. I hope you find these reflections valuable as you strengthen your own game. If you have the space and a group of friends I strongly recommend hosting an event like this. It was one of the highlights of my summer and I look forward to doing it again.

To Unfinity and Beyond

Posted on August 1, 2022July 31, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Well, Mark Rosewater has done it again. He somehow managed to convince Wizards of the Coast to release a new “Un-set”, Unfinity, the fourth set of outlandish, goofy, and entertaining cards.

When I say “outlandish”, I mean this both figuratively and literally—the new set is partially themed around outer space! At least, that’s my impression after seeing an alien and stars in the collector booster artwork.

This set will be different from past “Un-sets” in one key way: it will contain many eternal tournament-legal cards! In releases past, with the exception of Steamflogger Boss, the only tournament legal cards from Un-sets were the basic lands. That’s changing completely with Unfinity, where slightly more than half the set’s cards will be legal in Commander, Legacy, and Vintage. To account for this, all cards in the set will be black-bordered and the non-legal cards will have little acorn holograms on the bottom instead of the usual oval shape.

In honor of this upcoming set release, I wanted to take a look back at the previous three un-sets to mine which cards maintain the most value. Perhaps there are a couple of themes to help us identify the best pick-ups from Unfinity for potential price appreciation.

Unglued

This is where it all started. Unglued was released on August 11, 1998, nearly 24 years ago. I can’t believe this set has been around for so many years!

The set was relatively small, containing only 83 silver-bordered cards and the five basic lands. Perhaps the most significant feature of Unglued was its introduction of full-art basic land cards. This was the first time basic lands without a text box were printed, and for a while, these were premier chase cards for their aesthetic. No matter what else you opened in an Unglued booster, you were likely to recoup your initial investment because of the basic land.

What are the most valuable cards from Unglued today? Since Wizards has begun printing full-art basic lands in many new sets, the original Unglued lands have lost some of their pull. They just aren’t all that unique anymore. So while the basics still maintain some modest value (a few bucks or so each), there are a few other collectible cards worth more.

The most valuable card from the set today is Blacker Lotus, an entertaining spin on Black Lotus that requires its owner to tear up the card and remove pieces from the game to add four mana to the mana pool. I can’t help but wonder if some players actually did this to their cards, and that’s why this one is worth around $20 now, or if it’s simply valuable due to its association with the OG Black Lotus. We’ll have to keep a watch out for any theme around this idea.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blacker Lotus

The next most valuable cards are the two halves of Big Furry Monster, an unstoppable 99/99 creature that costs 15 black mana. You need to have both halves in play in order to use the creature, which was a novel idea at the time. It was a precursor to cards like Eldritch Moon’s Brisela, Voice of Nightmares, where two cards flipped over to form one mega-card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for B.F.M. (Big Furry Monster)

Another Unglued favorite is Ashnod's Coupon, a $10 card that does absolutely nothing as far as Magic is concerned. Rather, the card forces an opponent to get you target drink. I’m not sure why this card, in particular, is so valuable but it’s quirky and unique, to say the least.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashnod's Coupon

Jack-in-the-Mox at least does something in a game and is worth a couple of bucks. It's a zero-mana artifact modeled after the five Moxen with the drawback of having to sacrifice it if you roll a one on your six-sided die. The art for this one is particularly entertaining.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jack-in-the-Mox

Lastly, I would be remiss if I left out the Unglued tokens, which are also worth a few bucks (especially the squirrels and zombies). The art on these tokens is incredible, and they were yet another pioneer for Magic—since Unglued, we’ve seen tokens show up in countless booster packs from modern sets. Tokens that look like Magic cards, with real artwork, added a significant aesthetic to the game. Before tokens, most players were using pennies, chips, or face-down cards to represent these generic creatures. I like the fully artworked, on-theme tokens much more.

Looking back, Unglued introduced a couple of fantastic features that have since become key parts of Magic. It was entertaining while also being a pioneer for the game.

Unhinged

Unhinged was the second Un-set, released in November 2004. That’s right, it took over six years for Mark Rosewater to push through Magic’s second Un-set. I am so glad he finally managed it. Unhinged is my favorite of the bunch!

What makes Unhinged so special? The best part about the set is its inclusion of foils! If you haven’t had a chance to see them in person, silver-bordered foils look absolutely beautiful. When reflecting light, you see the colors of the rainbow staring back at you around the full border of the card. It is this effect, along with the fun introductions in the set, that makes some Unhinged cards exceptionally valuable. For this reason, as I review the top money cards from the set I will be focusing solely on the foil versions, which all command a significant premium to their non-foil counterparts.

Before starting with the most expensive, I want to start with Super Secret Tech, a card that gives a boost in power to all your other foil cards in play. What makes this card super secret? When the set was spoiled, this artifact wasn’t even included and its collector number is 141/140!

It wasn’t until people started opening boosters that people realized the card existed. Card Kingdom is completely sold out of this card—expect to pay north of $30 to acquire a near mint copy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Super Secret Tech

While Super Secret Tech is unique in how it was introduced in the set, its price pales in comparison to the most expensive foils of the set. Here are the top cards, along with their Card Kingdom near mint price:

Richard Garfield, Ph.D.: $999.99
Mox Lotus: $679.99
City of Ass: $429.99
Gleemax: $129.99
Johnny, Combo Player: $129.99
Old Fogey: $129.99
Who // What // When // Where // Why: $99.99

The list goes on and on. In fact, there are 34 Unhinged foils that retail for $19.99 or more. Clearly, foils are where the money is at in the set. It’s not just the rares that have value, either. Little Girl and Carnivorous Death-Parrot are both commons that sell for double digits, with the former in the $20 range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Little Girl

Before moving on, I just want to point out that this set contained another Lotus-like card in Mox Lotus, which happens to be one of the most valuable from the set. Even non-foils are worth nearly $20.

Unstable

The third and most recent un-set to have been released is Unstable, which came out December 8, 2017. The set contained about 216 (“216-ish”) cards, more than twice as many as Unglued. This was the first un-set to be built as a limited, stand-alone experience. As such, the set had a cohesive vision and “modern design sensibilities” reminiscent of a modern-day Limited set.

But enough about the history—let’s dig into the valuable cards of the set!

Actually, it’s more like the lack of valuable cards in the set. I suspect that, because this set came out so recently, its print run was much greater than the previous Un-sets. Perhaps it’ll take some time for the most desirable cards of the set to climb further in price.

The basic lands are of course worth a few bucks each. The most valuable non-foil from the set is Everythingamajig, which retails for $6.49. Urza, Academy Headmaster is another favorite from the set (an Un-set planeswalker is sure to be a hit), and non-foils are worth a few bucks.

But enough of this non-foil discussion. Let’s shift to where all the money is, yet again: the foils! There's obviously a premium for the foil basic lands, which range in price from $74.99 for the Island to $39.99 for the Plains. Other cards with prices similar to Island include:

Garbage Elemental ‘D’: $74.99
Knight of the Kitchen Sink ‘A’: $74.99
Steamflogger Boss: $74.99
Urza, Academy Headmaster: $64.99
Sword of Dungeons & Dragons: $44.99

It seems there is a recurring theme for valuable cards in Unstable. You see, the set included cards with multiple versions and slight perturbations. Garbage Elemental and Knight of the Kitchen Sink were two such cards. Because of all the variations, collectors have been paying up to obtain one of each for their complete sets, and each version of the given card is likely rarer than their rarity symbol indicates.

There’s no Lotus derivative card in this set—if there was, I'd expect to see it towards the top of the price list. In any event, the name of the finance game with Unstable is much like that of Unhinged: the money is in the foils.

Wrapping It Up

Before we go, I want to touch on two more points.

First, there is technically another un-set called Unsanctioned. This set wasn’t sold in boosters like the others, however. It was released as a box set with many reprints of previous Un-sets. Only sixteen new Un-cards are in Unsanctioned. The lands are really the only noteworthy cards from the set (so far).

Second, sealed booster boxes of Un-sets have a history of starting off inexpensive and then exploding in price years later. For example, one Unglued booster box sold on TCGplayer a couple of weeks ago for a whopping $1509.98! The only box listed for sale right now is $5000, which is probably too high to sell any time soon. Unhinged booster boxes start in the mid $600’s. I’ll never forget the time I went to a local hobby shop circa 2007 and they offered to sell my friends and me all their Unhinged booster boxes for dirt cheap (I want to say $40-$50 each) and we declined. Talk about a missed opportunity.

Unstable booster boxes are much more affordable given the set is not as old—they sell for somewhere in the $150 range. I wonder, though, if these will climb over the next decade or so like Unhinged and Unglued boxes have done. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on them.

This brings me to Unfinity. Sealed product of this set may also be worth acquiring and holding onto for the long run—especially if the Limited experience is fun. If there’s replay value to drafting Unfinity, it could give players yet another reason to buy booster boxes for years to come… that is, on top of the fact that foils tend to sell for a pretty penny! I expect Unfinity will follow the same trend. With so many tournament legal cards (including Shock Lands) in the set, it could make Unfinity the most desirable Un-set of them all. Time will tell, but picking up foil copies of any iconic cards, along with any cards that reference Moxen or Lotuses, could be a smart long-term play on Magic’s latest joke set.

Generational Magic: Tossing about with Old Friends

Posted on July 29, 2022July 29, 2022 by Anthony Willier

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A Flippin' Good Time

My youngest, Jarod has been playing Canadian Highlander for about a year now. This past spring, Mavericks had an April Fool's-themed event. They encouraged players to build goofy fun decks for it. Initially, Jarod had an idea for something else, but I mentioned a coin flip deck would be very thematic. He loved it.

We put it together, and he played and lost quickly. Unfortunately, everyone else either didn't get the memo or chose not to switch decks. He still had a good night overall, hanging around with everyone. This is one of the main reasons why Magic is a great game.

After he was finished with the deck, I saved it and converted it into a Commander deck for myself. I wanted to keep it blue, black, and red, but there isn't a good tri-color coin flip commander, so I threw Obeka, Brute Chronologist in and got busy flippin'!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Obeka, Brute Chronologist

Coin Flip Commander Deck

Creatures

1 Obeka, Brute Chronologist

1 Chaotic Goo

1 Crazed Firecat

1 Creepy Doll

1 Dualcaster Mage

1 Goblin Archaeologist

1 Goblin Assassin

1 Goblin Bangchuckers

1 Goblin Kaboomist

1 Goblin Traprunner

1 Frenetic Sliver

1 Imperial Recruiter

1 Krark, the Thumbless

1 Okaun, Eye of Chaos

1 Rakdos, the Showstopper

1 Spark Double

1 Tavern Scoundrel

1 Tavern Swindler

1 Tribute Mage

1 Yusri, Fortune's Flame

1 Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom

Artifacts

1 Boompile

1 Elixir of Immortality

1 Hazoret's Monument

1 Izzet Signet

1 Krark's Thumb

1 Lightning Greaves

1 Mana Crypt

1 Mind Stone

1 Sol Ring

1 Sorcerer's Strongbox

1 Talisman of Creativity

1 Wirefly Hive

Enchantments

1 Chance Encounter

1 Goblin Bomb

1 Goblin Festival

1 Mirror March

1 Planar Chaos

1 Propaganda

Instants

1 Consider

1 Counterspell

1 Cyclonic Rift

1 Electrodominance

1 Invoke Calamity

1 Mystical Tutor

1 Odds // Ends

1 Opt

1 Puppet's Verdict

1 Seething Song

1 Unsubstantiate

1 Whir of Invention

Sorceries

1 Blasphemous Act

1 Dreadbore

1 Feed the Swarm

1 Fiery Gambit

1 Gamble

1 Game of Chaos

1 Meltdown

1 Molten Birth

1 Preordain

1 Squee's Revenge

1 Stitch in Time

Planeswalkers

1 Daretti, Scrap Savant

1 Ral Zarek

1 Saheeli Rai

Lands

6 Mountain

4 Island

1 Ancient Tomb

1 Badlands

1 Blood Crypt

1 Bloodstained Mire

1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All

1 Buried Ruin

1 Cascade Bluffs

1 Cavern of Souls

1 Clearwater Pathway

1 Desolate Lighthouse

1 Fiery Islet

1 Karn's Bastion

1 Maze of Ith

1 Otawara, Soaring City

1 Riverglide Pathway

1 Scalding Tarn

1 Shivan Reef

1 Steam Vents

1 Sulfurous Springs

1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

1 Temple of Epiphany

1 Temple of Malice

1 Underground Sea

1 Volcanic Island

1 Watery Grave

Contemplating Player Familiarity and Interaction

Jarod wanted to hang out with a few of his old high school friends last Friday, so he stayed at home instead of getting his card fix. There wasn't any good drafting going on since everyone is done with Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate and you can only play so many Double Masters 2022 drafts before you have to get a loan. I didn't have any non-Commander constructed decks put together, so this presented me with an opportunity to flip the coin!

On the way over to Mavericks, I thought about how people interact with each other. Can a game be better or worse depending on how well you know the people you play with? There are plenty of variables and opinions for this, but I wanted to make the effort to explore the question, and hopefully have some fun games in the process.

To test the theory a little and flip that coin, I figured I'd start with people I know well at a place I'm familiar with, and a little later, I'd stop over at Gaming Goat to see if I could join in a game there. Gaming Goat is maybe a few hundred yards from Mavericks, so it would be easy to get to both places. Can you have fun anywhere with anyone? Sure can!

Introducing the Familiar Faces

So, before we head into the gameplay highlights, I'd like to introduce my Magic-playing friends at the table. I've known Peter for a little more than a year, Dewey a couple of years, and I've battled with Clayton many times across the draft table. We all have an affinity for drafting, but we'll play just about anything that might interest us.

Dewey

How old are you?
Thirty-one.

How long have you played or what Magic set did you start with?
I first was introduced to the game back in 2013, but really started playing in 2019.

How did you start playing?
My cousin taught me. When I moved into the area, I wanted to meet people and I figured this was a fun way to do that.

What's one thing you enjoy about Magic?
The people. Meeting new people and observing everyone's personalities through what decks they play.

Who's your Commander for this game?
Wasitora, Nekoru Queen

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wasitora, Nekoru Queen

What's one of your favorite memories of Magic?
I was playing a Commander game headlining Blim, Comedic Genius. I made a deal with my first opponent to not attack him with the creature of his I was in the process of stealing. I don't recall the details of the creature, but it was a 3/3 and had menace.

I attacked my second opponent with the creature, then proceeded to give the creature to them. My second opponent then attacked the first opponent with it. So, enjoyably, I was able to keep my promise to not attack the first opponent. It was definitely a 'Blim' moment.

That's awesome! What's one of your favorite Magic cards?
Blim, Comedic Genius.

Peter

How old are you?
Twenty-six.

How long have you played or what Magic set did you start with?
My first product was the Strixhaven Commander decks, so early 2021.

Pretty recent, then. How did you start playing?
I've always played various card games throughout my life and was attracted to the game through Magic: Arena. After playing that for a little bit, I picked up playing the real thing and have been enjoying it immensely.

What's one thing you enjoy about Magic?
Definitely the social aspect of the game. I love coming out and picking up a Commander game with multiple people.

Who's your Commander for this game?
With agreement from the table, I'm testing out a Dominaria United commander, Jasmine Boreal of the Seven.

What's one of your favorite memories of Magic?
Probably my first (or second) Game Day. I was losing horribly in the first round, but my opponent wanted to get into the Modern tournament that was about to start, so they conceded to me. I continued on, fought through, and ended up winning that Game Day event!

What's one of your favorite Magic cards?
Osgir, the Reconstructor. He was my first Commander.

Clayton

How old are you?
Twenty-eight.

How long have you played or what Magic set did you start with?
Return to Ravnica was technically when I started, but that was only with Duals of the Planeswalkers. My first paper sets were drafting Magic 2014 and Theros.

How did you start playing?
A buddy of mine shared it with me.

What's one thing you enjoy about Magic?
Drafting. Every player starts on a pretty even playing field. It takes skill to build a good deck on the fly. To me, drafting is a fundamental part of what makes Magic a great game!

Who's your Commander for this game?
Evelyn, the Covetous

There was an error retrieving a chart for Evelyn, the Covetous

What's one of your favorite memories of Magic?
I have a couple of them. One was the first time I cast a Gonti, Lord of Luxury. Not only did I steal my opponent's Dig Through Time and cast it, but I copied it with Mirrorpool. Yea, he wasn't too pleased.

The other one was a reminder to never give up. I was playing Pioneer and the deck I was playing had four Fatal Pushes. Generally a good thing, but for this game, they were ineffective against my opponent who was playing Esper Control, and I drew all four. I eventually won by running them out of win conditions. My opponent no longer had a way to win the game and decked out before me. I still had all four Fatal Pushes in hand at the end.

What's one of your favorite Magic cards?
Scholar of Athreos. For me, it was a memorable and fun way to win in that draft format.

Get Ready To Rumble!

So, how did the game progress? Did yours truly test fate and beat the odds or did my coin come up tails? Here's a look at the board while we were all still fighting the good fight, and yes, Planar Chaos is great fun! Well, at least for me it was.

Mini-Boss Level

Yep, I flipped tails one too many times calling out heads on Yusri, Fortune's Flame and with one final flip of Clayton's top card, due to Twilight Prophet's trigger, I was out.

Major Boss Level

Dewey was the next to fall to Pete's massive token army. Board wipes were never to be found in time.

Final Boss Level

Clayton put up an awesome fight and lasted quite a bit longer, but once Pete's Avenger of Zendikar hit the battlefield the writing was on the wall.

Game Over, Man...Game Over!

So, how did my follow-up game over at Gaming Goat go? Tune in next week for the details, and more thoughts on player familiarity and player interaction.

I want to thank the guys for taking the time to share about themselves and hope that you've enjoyed this trip. Feel free to share your fun Commander experience in the comments or on Twitter.

When You Are The Problem Player, Evaluating Power Level

Posted on July 28, 2022July 28, 2022 by Joe Mauri

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Deck power level is an ambiguous and intriguing aspect of playing Commander casually. While one person's five may be another's eight there is much to be said for understanding the approximate power level at a local venue. This is a unique challenge for me in particular. I regularly play at two different local venues and also against players all over the world via SpellTable. On top of that, I also play a few games on my own kitchen table. Power level expectations are extremely different at each table. Finding one deck that meets every level is tough.

What Makes You Hated At One Table Is Normal At Another

When playing with strangers, consider starting out low power and gradually easing into a range that makes sense. This method seems to result in fewer "non-games" than starting with a higher-powered deck and ratcheting down. However, there is a human factor to consider. How many games and how much time is it worth spending playing underpowered decks knowing the odds of winning are very low?

I'm willing to take one for the team to fine-tune where my power level should be. I can lose a few now to "win" on a different level later. How many games can anyone tolerate losing though? How about one game? A night's worth of games? A week or two in a row? Surprise! It turns out I'm not a huge fan of losing. and neither are many other players. For the last couple of months, though, I have been playing mostly with"kid gloves" on while meeting new players. I can tell you, it felt good to take them off! But was it the right thing to do? Turns out, yes it was. Allow me to explain.

That Week My First Goal Was Winning

This was a casual Commander game night and I was not there to have fun. While some venues toss a few promo packs into pods, there were no stakes here. I was, frankly, tired of losing and did not want to hold back. Let the shellacking begin!

The Play By Play

I planned on playing decks one to two steps above my normal range. To put it numerically, I generally play fives or sixes but tonight I was going to play decks that were at least sevens or eights. As a reference, I rate fives around the pre-constructed level. Sixes are, therefore, slightly modified pre-cons. Once you've changed, upgraded, or otherwise altered about ten cards or more out of a pre-con you're past the point of modification, you're optimizing and moving towards a seven.

My Edric, Spymaster of Trest deck is at least an eight. It hovers just under cEDH power levels. It's effectively 30 evasive, cheap creatures, 20 counterspells, and 20 utility spells. The entire deck's engine hinges on a turn two or three Edric plus something to protect him. Generally, I'm drawing extra cards every single turn until the game ends. We ended up with a three-person pod. Winning a one versus two is much more manageable than a one versus three. My opponents? The first was on Noyan Dar, Roil Shaper, a deck that I'm familiar with as I traded with them to build it. It's a casual deck, a five or six. The other player had a Grist, the Hunger Tide deck which was still being refined, but was probably a six.

Lucky me, going first I had a great hand! I played turn one land and Triton Shorestalker with Mental Misstep in hand. Noyan tried to play a turn one Esper Sentinel. Not in my house, eat a Mental Misstep. Grist played their land and passed. I played a land and passed. Next, Noyan played land and cast Sol Ring. Not in my house! I countered it with a Spellstutter Sprite. Turns cycled around and I quickly assembled Edric and a few creatures. By turn four I was drawing four or more cards a turn and countering anything relevant my opponents played for the rest of the game.

Are You Proud Of Yourself?

On the contrary, I felt bad for absolutely molly whopping my opponents. They played much more casual and lower-powered decks in this game. On top of that, luck was also against the other players. The Noyan player got a bit land screwed and the Grist player never hit a double mill trigger. This made the game feel even worse. I've played many games with the Noyan player. I asked them after the game if they noticed anything different about my deck than what I usually play. They said, effectively, that it was a world of difference playing against me when I use a "real deck" versus the "pile of cards" I normally bring. When I asked them if I should play stronger decks more often the expression on their face told me everything I needed to know.

Mono Black Oona

Oona, Queen of the fae is my longest-running, oldest Commander deck. I've played different variations with Geth, Lord of the Vault and Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed as former commanders, but Oona offers better build options and a secondary win condition. The deck is highly optimized at cEDH levels of power. It has multiple infinite combos, piles of tutors, huge ramp, and excellent answers.

Sitting down I had the same Noyan player, with a different deck, and another player with their Raffine, Scheming Seer deck full of Secret Lair prints and various good cards. Our last player was a young lad of 10 or 11 who usually plays alongside their father but was going it alone with a Sisay, Weatherlight Captain deck. I knew ahead of time the Raffine player always comes in too strong so I decided to match that.

It was a funny game because I had both Candelabra of Tawnos and Mishra's Helix in play. Half of my mana tapped down the Raffine player so they could not play Magic. The rest was used on Candelabra to ramp the other two players who fought each other. The Raffine player was looking for a Disenchant effect but I had an Imp's Mischief waiting.

Eventually, I put down Ensnaring Bridge and got down to one card in hand so almost no one could attack. Oona started making 1/1 Faeries, and the game ended in short order. The table experienced the power of my fully armed and operational battle station.

The end result was a game that was a lot less fun than it could have been. In this game and the previous example, I removed the other players' agency until the games became effectively solitaire. What did I learn?

These Games Confirmed My Estimation

For one, I now know I have a firm grasp on relative power levels at this venue. Everyone is playing decks that are safely in the six to eight range. Almost no deck strays from that range, and, if so, I would be the player to do so. One important thing to grasp is that by starting with lower-powered decks I developed a very good idea of what the power floor is for a deck. Now that I've brought more powerful decks as well, I have a good idea of the power ceiling. Now "five" and "eight" matter less. I know the line from first being below it, and then above it. I can adjust accordingly and bring decks that better fit the environment.

Finding the Right Power Level, or the Right Answers?

I try my best not to bully a table. Sitting back and casting cards while chatting is how I like my casual games of Commander. Yes, it gets frustrating to lose what seems like every time. The reality of a multiplayer game, though, is that you should be losing far more often than winning. In retrospect, for me, it was less about losing and more about the feeling of never winning. With my lower-powered decks, games tended to end before I could pull off a cool play or demonstrate a unique aspect of my deck. The reason? Many cards these days are so incredibly high-powered that anything left unchecked gets out of control quickly. This is true even of cards in otherwise lower power decks. Is this the part where I mention that everyone needs to play more removal? It is, it is that part! Please play more removal. I'm going to work on adding more "fun" removal to my casual decks. Wizards, please print more fun removal!

What About Other Tables?

SpellTable is a very, very mixed bag. While practically no one makes games using decks at the one through four or ten levels, the band of five through nine is actually much wider than it would seem. There are gulfs between five, six, and seven. Power levels are definitely relative. I find it helpful to establish my own definitions and try the best I can to have a good rule-zero conversation before playing. I recommend asking about the EDREC salt score of everyone's deck when playing casually as these are widely accepted as the most unfun cards on the receiving end.

One nice part about playing competitive games on SpellTable is that there are fewer social issues because everyone is there for the same reason. The social experience is a distant third in priority behind winning and deck testing. Paradoxically enough this can sometimes make the social experience better. It's simply harder to find a casual table where everyone wants the same thing. The best bet there is to network. Anytime I find players I enjoyed playing with, I save their contacts. Discord is great for this. That way it's easier to build tables full of like-minded players from all across the world instead of going back into the vast, unknown, ocean of random players hoping to pair up with equally casual or competitive players.

It's The Same At Home

At my kitchen table, it was Kraken versus Spirit! On one side, was my boat deck, where every single card must have a boat somewhere in the artwork. This meme deck has grown from its conception—when I had to utilize cards like Dandan—but it is far less powerful than most precons. I rate it as a three or four. Facing off against it was the Millicent precon Spirit Squadron deck. Millicent seems like it weighs in at about a five. It has a few too many themes vying for space in the deck, and not enough cards to make all the themes useful.

Playing the boat deck against new players who have one year or less of experience playing Magic, I figured this would be a fair battle. While not perfect, Millicent at least has some deck synergy. It has Swords to plowshares and Sol Ring! The boat deck just has... boats. On the surface, the formula appeared to be boats > ghosts. Realistically though, the more correct formula was boats+30 years experience > ghosts. Capsize had the highest salt score in these home games, which forced me to remove it from the deck.

Unlike the previous examples, here I genuinely knew my deck was inferior to what I was up against. There were different problems at hand. Here, my superior threat assessment was what was at issue. It was easy for me to simply bide my time and remove the correct things, typically Millicent, making the spirits deck not function. Because of that, practically every game went the same way: Millicent got bounced, killed, or countered the first time it was played. I correctly hit the weak point of the deck with everything I had. Turns out, because that deck was only a bit more powerful than mine (like a five versus a four) if I hit its weak spot, it stopped being an even match.

A New Challenger Sets Sail

So how did we compensate? I tuned and streamlined the Millicent deck. I removed dead synergies and added more Spirits. After boosting Millicent up to a six or seven, I could no longer win a single game against it with the boat deck. Even in games where I messed with Millicent or board-wiped multiple times, it did not matter. If the goal was to make 50/50 match odds, I may have gone a little overboard. That doesn't bother me though. I've been patiently waiting for a reason to start optimizing the boats. Tuning it to fight Millicent was just the sign I needed. Enter the new captain at the helm:

I hope that the Pirate Horror versus Spirit matchup is a close and more exciting one going forward. In any case, this example just reinforces how power levels can be relative. The upgraded boat deck with Captain N'ghathrod in command will be a perfect fit for my kitchen table games as well as for one of my local venues. It will definitely be a bit less powerful than other decks in my SpellTable games though.

Is The Heart Of Commander About Power?

No. The heart of Commander is having fun during the social experience of playing Magic. Understanding deck power levels, and how relative they can be though, is important when trying to tune for a specific table of players and their expectations. Hopefully the experiences I shared resonate and point others in the right direction to make their Commander games more interactive, social, and fun! Remember, every once in a while it's okay to test the waters and not just with lower-powered offerings. Sometimes playing a higher-powered deck can reveal a clearer picture of the power level of a group.

What's the power level of your most fun Commander deck if it's not a seven? Let me know in the comments.

Magical Creatures: Brushwagg and Viashino

Posted on July 27, 2022July 27, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

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Welcome back to Magical Creatures, a series dealing with the unique living beings invented for this game. Last time, we discussed the birth and evolution of two creature types designed specifically for Magic: Lhurgoyf and Phelddagrif. And Graveborn, a token-specific creature type.

While 264 different creature types exist so far, only a small fraction of them meets our criteria. According to MTG Wiki, that number is 45, and since I generally agree with their choices I have decided to borrow that list. We began about a month ago with the very first set to introduce creature types designed for Magic: Antiquities, which yielded Atog and Tetravite. Since then, we have proceeded chronologically, tackling a few new creatures every week.

Mirage and Its Many Records

Today, we leave behind Ice Age and Alliances to foray into Mirage. Released in October 1996, it was the last set of the year, and the ninth expansion of Magic overall. It also was the first set in the Mirage block, which in turn was the first block to be designed as a whole. And the first to be consistently playtested with a focus on Limited, too. Talk about primacy!

So which new creatures did Mirage introduce? With that release, Magic gained 16 new creature types, including gems such as Mantis, Pirate, and Wyvern. And as is often the case, most of those types didn't survive the Grand Creature Type Update. Regardless, just two creature types were created specifically for Magic: Brushwagg and Viashino.

What Is a Brushwagg?

Let's start with what is probably the more confusing and elusive of all Magic creatures: the Brushwagg. We really don't know much about this weird creature, but darned if we won't do our best.

First of all, only two creatures with this type exist, one from Mirage and one from Ikoria, and they are both green. If you really want a third Brushwagg, an honorary mention goes to Interplanar Brushwagg, although it's just a test card from the Mystery Booster set and thus illegal in any Constructed format.

Famous Brushwaggs (more like: every Brushwagg ever printed)

The only things we know for sure: brushwaggs are animals with bodies resembling a ball of briars, and Brushwagg somehow survived the Grand Creature Type Update. It's not much, but after all, even Mark Rosewater hasn't really helped to unravel the mystery. It has been suggested that the creature might be in fact a rodent (or hedgehog) "whose elongated spiny body can inflate itself with air to form a globe".

The Brushwagg's Deception

This theory about self-inflation may hold weight, as both Brushwagg and Almighty Brushwagg have abilities allowing them to change their stats under certain circumstances. The former, for instance, gets -2/+2 when it blocks or is blocked. The latter looks like a 1/1, but gains +3/+3 when its ability is activated. I'm not saying this is unusual for a green creature (think Basking Rootwalla), but at least it's something that our two Brushwaggs have in common...

"Two minutes into laughing at the Brushwagg and it gives you this look" (from Reddit)

One last characteristic we can deduce is their deceptive nature, hinted at by the ability to grow unexpectedly. Such a trait also manifests in the flavor text of both creatures. Brushwagg's flavor text is among my favorites, and I think it deserves a full quote:

Defiantly, the young cyclops popped the brushwagg into his mouth. His cheeks suddenly puffed, his eye bulged, and he was forced to agree with his elder.
Afari, Tales

It's particularly spot-on if you think that Cyclops is another creature type introduced with the advent of Mirage, although obviously not unique to Magic. The flavor text of Almighty Brushwagg flavor defines the idiom "Laughed at the brushwagg" as a hunters' expression meaning “died unexpectedly.”

Brushwagg original sketch by Ian Miller, pen and ink.

To wit, brushwaggs remain mysterious creatures, and we can only try to glimpse its unthinkable secrets. What is certain is that Magic's makers had fun designing them, as they might look good in an Un-set, too. The original sketch by Magic artist Ian Miller, where the Brushwagg has a hallucinating gaze, reminds me of John Tenniel's Mock Turtle.

And What Is a Viashino?

And now, forget about brushwaggs (although we could always use some more)... it's time for Viashino! The second creature type invented for Mirage had a very different fate, and today over 50 creatures exist with its type. Viashino are mostly red, and represent a sentient, humanoid lizard-folk descending from Dragons.

They tend to be aggressive creatures, being aligned with red, and normally have higher power than toughness. Mirage alone had three different creatures with the type Viashino, and two of them were legendary! So, let's see how it all started...

The three original Viashino creatures

What do they have in common? Not much, really. Especially Viashino Warrior, which is just a vanilla 4/2 for four mana, a variation on Hill Giant with slightly altered power and toughness.

With the two legendary Viashino, things get more interesting. They are both 3/4 for five mana, illustrated by Andrew Robinson, and seem to exert some sort of control over Dragons. The first gains control of opposing Dragons, while the second searches the library for a Dragon and puts it onto the battlefield.

Viashino After Mirage

What next? Viashino came back a few months later, with Visions (Viashino Sandstalker). And kept on coming in Urza's Saga (Retromancer, Viashino Outrider, and more). Many other Viashino came out in the original Ravnica block (2005-2006). Other blocks containing Viashino creatures were Time Spiral, Alara, and more recently the expansion Streets of New Capenna.

My favorite Viashino art: Viashino Slasher

Not much has changed in the course of the last 25 years of Viashino's development. Of course, these creatures have become more powerful, but so have they all. Again, we had a decent pinger for the Ravnica block (Viashino Fangtail). And we had some Viashino showing off the typical mechanics of new sets, such as devour on Thunder-Thrash Elder or blitz on Plasma Jockey. Although none of them were good enough for Constructed, many Viashino have proved fairly playable in Limited, suggesting Wizards sees them as a safe creature type to experiment on with new abilities.

Sentient Lizards vs. Bramble Cats

What's the biggest difference between the two creature types we analyzed today? As far as I'm concerned, Brushwagg is definitely among the most memorable types ever, while Viashino is not that remarkable. Although the latter has over 50 cards dedicated, and the former only has a couple, the pure genius of a feline-like beast covered in briars is tough to match.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, and stay tuned for the next piece. We are going to tackle a new set with no less than six creature types unique to Magic!

Adam Plays Magic: Mono-Green Stompy

Posted on July 26, 2022July 26, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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Welcome back for another installment of Adam Plays Magic. This week, we're crashing in with Mono-Green Stompy in Explorer. This archetype takes advantage of an all-green mana base to play otherwise hard-to-cast three drops like Steel Leaf Champion and Old-Growth Troll. The strength of these evasive stat beasts rests in their ability to come down on curve, which a typical deck of two or more colors will struggle to do. Since this devotion to green allows for high-powered cards other decks can't easily access, it's essentially splashing the same color for an added bonus!

What I Like

One of the top incentives to play green in Explorer is access to Llanowar Elves, which is currently the only unconditional one-drop mana dork in the format. While cards like Jaspera Sentinel and Gilded Goose have the ability to tap for mana, Elves consistently does so without any stipulations. Even though it doesn't fix for colors the way the other dorks do, Elves is the best at ensuring access to the payoffs described above.

Notably, Elves pushes up the clock and enables its controller to deploy threats while the opponent is futzing with their early mana. There's even the option to next-level them by playing a two drop like Werewolf Pack Leader to dodge Censor.

But the glue that holds the deck together is Collected Company. This spell is the deck's primary form of card advantage and the only instant-speed play in its arsenal. Company can deploy multiple bodies after a board wipe, accelerate a clock even further, or generate surprise blockers as a combat trick. Company is unquestionably a versatile powerhouse.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Collected Company

Another element that I've been impressed with has been Kraul Harpooner, which typically spikes commonly-played flying threats like Ledger Shredder and sometimes Raffiene, Scheming Seer and live to tell the tale. At its base level, it's still a 3/2 for two mana that pairs well with Pack Leader to trigger pack tactics if it lives, or grow Scavenging Ooze if it trades with an opposing creature.

While a much smaller component to the deck, I love the flexible utility lands in the mana base. Boseiju, Who Endures is a free include that can kill creature lands and pesky token makers like Fable of the Mirror Breaker and Oni-Cult Anvil. Hashep Oasis often pushes through the final points of damage and Lair of the Hydra is excellent flood protection. All of these lands tapping for colored mana and coming in untapped is a lot of added value for virtually zero cost.

What I Don't Like

A deck like Mono-Green doesn't have much agency over what's going on. There aren't counterspells or reliable card draw engines. The pilot needs to hope the opponent doesn't just "have it" at all times. Sometimes that plan works out and you smash them before their plan comes together. Sometimes Greasefang, Okiba Boss sends a flying bus (Parhelion II) filled with angels at your face on turn three.

The deck also runs the risk of some clunky draws. A hand full of three-drops is great with Llanowar Elves, but if the dork dies, good luck finding the third land and playing one spell per turn for the rest of the game.

The Deck

Explorer Mono-Green Stompy

Creatures

4 Llanowar Elves

4 Pelt Collector

2 Kraul Harpooner

1 Resilient Khenra

4 Scavenging Ooze

4 Werewolf Pack Leader

2 Rhonas the Indomitable

4 Old-Growth Troll

4 Steel Leaf Champion

Spells

4 Primal Might

4 Collected Company

Lands

2 Boseiju, Who Endures

17 Forest

1 Hashep Oasis

3 Lair of the Hydra

Sideboard

2 Tamiyo's Safekeeping

2 Destiny Spinner

1 Outland Liberator

3 Ram Through

2 Unlicensed Hearse

3 Shifting Ceratops

2 The Great Henge

End Step

Overall, I think Mono-Green is a solid tier two contender in the format, and it's great at punishing anyone that stumbles or is a bit too slow out of the gate. Games tend to be over pretty fast, making it a great choice to grind the Arena ladder.

The sideboard is surprisingly rich with options for an archetype with minimal spread on the color pie as well. Tamiyo's Safekeeping is a versatile spell that can punish removal heavy decks or board wipes. Shifting Ceratops is lights out against the Mono-Blue Spirits deck that's been gaining traction and is a great way to punish counterspells. The Great Henge outgrinds midrange decks like RB while getting a hefty discount from most of the deck's creatures.

And that's a wrap on this week's Adam Plays Magic! Don't forget to drop a like on the video and leave a comment letting me know what you want to see for next week. If you have any questions, as always, shoot me a message on Twitter at @AdamECohen. I'll catch you all next time.

An Enchanting Tune: Modern Song of Creation

Posted on July 26, 2022July 26, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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It's quite rare for a deck to suddenly appear fully formed. In fact, I don't think it happens except when Wizards makes a mistake. Most decks spend years wallowing in non-viability before the right combination of players, cards, and metagame arrive. Just go poking around the dark corners of Magic Discords and forums if you don't believe me.

Today I'll be highlighting just such a deck. While it is likely to remain fringe for the time being, it could become a solid player in Modern. Don't sleep on it.

The Forgotten Set

I don't know if anyone remembers, but Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths was a pretty wild set. It was filled with so many new ideas and interesting mechanics that nobody really discusses because the only part that mattered were the companions. I can't specifically remember any cards from Ikoria seeing play in Modern beyond the triomes and companions. Which I know isn't true because I frequently exclaim "wait, that came from Ikoria?" The companions were sufficiently warping that I still forget Shark Typhoon and Winota, Joiner of Forces shared a release date with Lurrus of the Dream-Den.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Song of Creation

One such forgotten card is Song of Creation. I have vague memories of certain players getting excited for Song's potential before being smothered by Lurrus. And then for two years, there was silence. I'm sure that development was ongoing, but I heard nothing. I'm not privy to everything happening in obscure Discords and forums, after all. Then in July, I suddenly started seeing results. And streamers picking up the deck, including Gabriel Nassif. When a Hall of Famer is playing a deck, it's hard not to take notice.

An Odd Deck

I don't remember where the Song deck started out, nor do I want to spend the time necessary to find out. I do know that I was not ready the first time I saw the deck in action on Nassif's above linked video. To be honest, as I'm writing this article, I still feel like this deck shouldn't work. But does it ever.

Song of Creation Combo, bobthedog (31st Place, Modern Challenge)

Creatures

1 Wild Cantor

2 Endurance

Artifacts

2 Engineered Explosives

1 Everflowing Chalice

4 Mishra's Bauble

Enchantments

3 Utopia Sprawl

3 Song of Creation

Instants

4 Pact of Negation

4 Summoner's Pact

4 An Offer You Can't Refuse

2 Gut Shot

2 Veil of Summer

Sorceries

4 Strike It Rich

4 Glittering Wish

1 Grapeshot

Lands

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

1 Breeding Pool

2 Forest

2 Gemstone Mine

1 Hallowed Fountain

4 Misty Rainforest

2 Stomping Ground

1 Temple Garden

4 Windswept Heath

1 Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth

Sideboard

1 Guttural Response

1 Lightning Bolt

1 Nature's Claim

2 Veil of Summer

1 Wild Cantor

1 Sterling Grove

1 Firespout

1 Teferi, Time Raveler

1 Wear // Tear

1 Mine Collapse

2 Omnath, Locus of Creation

1 Song of Creation

1 Master the Way

bobthedog is Gabriel Nassif's MTGO handle, for those unaware.

So that sure is a pile of cards. It's very weird to see Summoner's Pact without Primeval Titan. And the last time I saw anyone play Wild Cantor, they were setting up to kill with Laboratory Maniac. And what's with the singleton Everflowing Chalice? Sideboard Omnath, Locus of Creation just seems wrong; that's a maindeck card!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Summoner's Pact

Essentially, this is a storm-combo kill that doesn't play rituals. Or an engine that makes mana. It's a combo deck built entirely around a single card that just provides an extra land-drop and lots of cards you can't keep. The mind simply reels and wants me to reject the deck out-of-hand.

Deceptively Strong

However, that's all just misdirection and misinterpretation. This deck is surprisingly genius. A true "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" situation. Enough that I'm quite high on the deck and hope that it has staying power in Modern.

There are some barriers to that right now, but the future holds endless possibilities. I have some experience with Gifts Storm and I prefer Song of Creation to Storm. I'm not saying that it's a superior deck, but I think it's much better in the typical Modern metagame and for the typical player.

How to Sing the Song

As mentioned, Song of Creation is a storm combo deck in that it intends to kill with a massive Grapeshot. If that fails, it can Glittering Wish for Master the Way. To make either happen requires resolving the titular card. With that done, all the zero-mana spells become Pot of Greed. Simply play as many free spells as possible, draw as many cards as possible to find Grapeshot, cast it, and win. A straightforward storm kill.

The Song of Creation Kill

Playing the Chorus...

Of course, observant readers are already asking what happens when that doesn't come together. This is a non-deterministic combo after all, and resolving the key spell definitely doesn't translate directly into a win. More analytical readers may also wonder about the odds of actually finding the Grapeshot and more importantly how to cast it. Song only provides one additional land drop, so unless the plan is to go off with five mana, it's not going to work out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for An Offer You Can't Refuse

That's where the genius comes in. An Offer You Can't Refuse and Strike It Rich are the mana-makers. With Song out, Strike is mana-neutral card advantage in a deck where Manamorphose is too expensive. While Offer can be used to protect the combo, its main purpose is to fulfill its predicted destiny. The only card that absolutely has to resolve is Song (though Strike is close to necessary), so countering all the cheap chaff for treasure is a good deal when it makes the mana needed to keep the storm building.

... and the Bridge

A very important sequence is to play Summoner's Pact, counter it with your own Pact of Negation, then counter that with Offer for six new cards and two treasures. Then, resolve the original Pact. While Cantor is a decent target, that's mostly for when there aren't enough treasures to get or keep going. More often, Endurance should be chosen. It's not only a free spell, but it recycles all the spent cards back into the library.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Endurance

Churning through 60 cards is more than enough storm to kill with and if it isn't, there are bigger problems. The problem is decking. The draw trigger on Song is not optional, and sometimes Grapeshot will be on the bottom of the deck. In other words, by the time the kill can happen, it actually can't without the pilot dying first. Endurance therefore provides the space needed to keep going while also powering towards that endgame.

Meet the Backing Band

Alternatively, Wishing for Master is an option. However, it's harder to pull off than I like. The sequence requires seven mana, which isn't nothing. In testing I frequently found it difficult to keep treasure around between paying for Strike, Offer, and Utopia Sprawl. I felt like I had to really plan to go for Master rather than just trusting the deck to find the Grapeshot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Glittering Wish

However, win condition weirdness aside, Glittering Wish is essential to the deck and arguably as important as Song itself. There's a full Wishboard here, with some very essential targets. Obviously, Guttural Response and Teferi, Time Raveler are great against Counterspell decks, but I grabbed Wear // Tear more often. I'll explain why down the page.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

I know that Nassif often boarded in both Omnaths in matchups he didn't expect to successfully combo, but I found that just bringing one in was correct. I wanted that Wish target and needed it often. Song combo can't always get all the way there, and Omnath is pretty good as far as fair backup plans go. Though you never want to be in that position, as it is significantly harder to win via beatdown.

Deck Evaluation

As previously stated, I think that Song is a good deck in Modern. I've often said that Modern is seriously lacking in combo decks despite there being ample room in the metagame for them. Indeed, in a metagame dominated by grindy fair decks, an unfair combo should be well positioned for success, especially with maindeck Veil of Summer. Belcher has tried to fill that niche, but just can't quite cut it. The aforementioned straightforward combo kill coupled with the Wishboard utility should make Song a solid player in Modern.

Weaknesses

In terms of internal weaknesses, there is a small chance of the combo fizzling. Drawing two cards per spell goes a very long way towards preventing fizzles, but sometimes only lands are drawn. Other times, it takes all the treasure and extra land drop to get into the combo, and there's no mana to cast Grapeshot. Fortunately, the risk of fizzle due to sequencing errors mid-combo is very low. Just keep playing spells and counter them as necessary; the order doesn't matter very much.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grapeshot

Of course, a fizzle is probably fatal. Song won't go away, so there will be more chances to combo. However, because of that the enchantment's final clause, starting over means doing so from scratch. It is possible to draw really well and go from zero to victory. But it is much harder. Flashing back Strikes might do the job but I wouldn't rely on that.

This is also why players shouldn't be afraid of playing their Pacts. The upkeep trigger is unlikely to matter, and failing to pay probably won't change anything.

What About Storm?

Which may be a shock to Storm players, since Song is very similar strategically, but I've also said that I wouldn't play Storm seriously again. The reason is simple: Storm is too complicated. Especially in the current metagame. I lack the dedication to Storm required to succeed with Storm. Song doesn't require total and complete devotion, making it easier to put down and pick up when appropriate as the metagame shifts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

Winning with Storm requires solving dozens of puzzles of escalating complexity continuously. The standard line of playing cost reducers then playing Gifts Ungiven to set up the kill only works if the opponent has no interaction. Usually, Storm has to carefully plan out many turns ahead how it will play through interaction, exactly how it will tutor and when, whether it has to go for an alternative kill, how long it can spend sculpting with cantrips, etc., etc., etc. It is incredibly difficult to manage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Electromancer

Storm is also vulnerable to many types of disruption. In addition to obvious anti-combo hate, graveyard hate shuts off all the easy Storm kills. The compensation is that with so many lines available, a good Storm player can outplay almost anyone and any deck. Given time, good Storm players can put on a ballet that makes everyone look like they're playing Go-Fish. However, getting to that point requires so much work that it's prohibitive.

In Comparison

Song gets points on Storm for being significantly more straightforward. Cast and protect Song, play lots of spells, find a win. There's no working around the creatures dying, worrying about the correct sequence of plays to get the right outcome, no long tutor chains. Cast spells, draw cards, make treasure. A solid plan.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rest in Peace

Additionally, graveyard hate isn't effective at preventing Song's combo. In the face of Rest in Peace, Storm must plan out how to win without Past in Flames or find an answer. Song just needs to avoid decking themself. Given that graveyard hate is essential in Modern, this is a huge advantage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset, Parter of Veils

It is balanced by Song having some weaknesses Storm doesn't, but they're less likely to matter. The first is that Song is an enchantment and the combo doesn't work without it. Thus, enchantment removal can shut down a combo turn. However, it isn't so bad. No Song on the field means no discard trigger. Also, Song plays eight counters to answer said removal, and enchantment removal is pretty sparse these days. More troublesome is Narset, Parter of Veils. The combo can't happen against a Narset. She doesn't see much play in Modern, fortunately, but remains something to be aware of.

The Catch

That said, Song's reliance on zero-mana spells is a problem right now. All the anti-cascade cards also hit Song. Chalice of the Void on zero not only answers the combo but bricks a chunk of the deck. Void Mirror is even worse. Engineered Explosives is only a two-of and can't deal with everything.

My Advice

I think that Song is a good Modern deck coming up at an unfortunate time. There's a lot of splash damage thanks to Shardless Agent. Players will be put off by this and won't pick up Song, not only because of that combo stigma but the very plausible fear of being hated out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chalice of the Void

However, this is an opportunity. This is the sort of deck that can very easily spike a tournament against an unprepared field. I'm keeping this in my back pocket for the RCQ's. There will be an event where players assume that cascade won't be a factor. Song will enjoy not only the lack of hate but the unfair combo advantage over the grindy fair decks. Practice a lot with this deck in private, but don't play it in weekly events, and they'll never see it coming.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pact of Negation

Subsequently, I'd advise anyone with even a passing interest to buy now. The critical cards are fairly cheap while the deck is new and unproven. Nothing in it is likely to be hit with a ban, so holding for the right metagame is a safe move. The manabase and Endurance are Modern staples and should be on the acquisition list anyway. Buy now, master it, sit on it, and wait for the opportunity to strike. There will be a window to shock an event.

Liner Notes

I don't think that Song of Creation is in the running for Tier 1. There's too much hate available if it really starts to take off. Narset is the worst, but a simple Thalia, Guardian of Thraben also proves crushing. However, as a long-term Tier 3 deck with spike potential, it fills the niche far better than Storm. It may even have more staying power than Belcher thanks to the Wishboard. Once again, don't sleep on this deck!