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Welcome back, readers! Today's article is a follow-up to last week's, covering the two formats I couldn't squeeze in: Commander and Legacy. While doing research for this mini-series of articles, I found that the Commander section would likely have the most options for speculation and growth, so let's start there.
Commander
Colorless-Producing Artifacts
This is a pretty big list to pull from, so we should probably define some additional criteria. As mentioned last time, when it comes to speculation targets the number of copies that exist can play a huge role in the price ceiling and floor. Thus, a single printing (ideally from an older set) is definitely a boon, whereas multiple reprints (or a printing from a recent set like Innistrad or forward) will limit price growth.
Of course this also means mythics have the most potential, followed by rares, uncommons and lastly commons. But because we're dealing with cards that span Magic's entire history, we can still include commons as speculation targets. The common print run from older sets may in some cases actually be smaller than a mythic rare from a newer, large set.
Opportunities
Of these artifacts, the following are the ones I feel have the most opportunity for growth.
Grim Monolith - A single-print rare from 1999 (this card could get a driver's license in many states), this card's effect is very powerful and it's already both a Legacy and Commander staple. It combo's with Power Artifact for infinite mana and its price has been steadily increasing for the past year.
Monolith's price graph shows the exact type of growth we're looking for, as stable growth over time indicates a steady and accurate rise in demand. This thing isn't being driven by hype, but honest-to-god players who want to put it in sleeves and cast it.
Metalworker - This card already saw a drastic price jump thanks to coming off of the Commander banned list. While it has given some artifact-based decks a much-needed shot in the arm, it hasn't broken the format by any means.
Given its ability to ramp out a Kozilek, the Great Distortion on turn four, we may see more of Metalworker in Commander's near future. The ironic part is that because Metalworker's ability requires a lot of artifacts in hand, you likely won't draw as many cards off of Kozilek's cast trigger.
This card also has a pretty stable price graph (save the price jump on the date of its unbanning in Commander).
Unstable Obelisk - While this was printed at uncommon, it only showed up in two of the 2014 Commander decks ("Sworn to Darkness" and "Peer Through Time"), which weren't all that popular (the chase decks were "Forged in Stone," which had Containment Priest, and "Built From Scratch," which had Wurmcoil Engine).
Obelisk provides a colorless Vindicate effect (at that, one you can cast early to slip under countermagic). This is a huge boon for mono-color decks with color pie issues removing certain types of permanents, like red with enchantments and black with artifacts.
Thran Turbine - This one might seem a little odd given that it doesn't allow us to use the mana to cast spells, but it's a one-mana artifact that continuously provides two colorless every turn, and it was printed in 1998.
This is on my short list of cards waiting for the other half of the combo to become broken. I wouldn't go out and buy hundreds of copies, but I'm going to make sure I have my personal playset and another just in case.
Kyren Toy - This one doesn't seem all that impressive at first, but Mercadian Masques wasn't a heavily opened set and this is another 16-year-old rare from said set. It's a bit slower and doesn't have that "wow factor," but it has potential. Due to age and rarity it's definitely one to keep an eye out for.
I was going to suggest Su-Chi as well, but it appears on November 30th it got bought out and is now sitting at three times the old price. It's a very old uncommon on the Reserved List with a single print run (Antiquities), but given how rarely I see its little brother Cathodion show up in Commander, I can't recommend Su-Chi at the new price.
Colorless-Producing Lands
That's every single land I could find that produces specifically colorless mana in one way or another. I did mention quite a few of these in my previous article as many are Modern-legal.
Many of these have additional abilities that tap for colored mana. While this is desirable in Modern, it can actually be a hindrance to a card's adoption in Commander, as we're limited by our commander's color identity. Thus to put any of these lands in our deck, their colored abilities must line up with the colors of our general.
This is relevant because while some of the new Eldrazi might fit well into existing archetypes, the biggest catalyst for Commander speculation is when a new commander comes out that makes a bunch of cards much better. This happened to extra attack phase cards with Narset, Enlightened Master, and Wheel of Fortune-style cards with Nekusar, the Mindrazer.
Keeping this in mind, many of the lands listed above become less appealing as spec options. Kozilek, the Great Distortion is the most powerful and exciting of the new Eldrazi cards, and he's (surprise, surprise) colorless. That's the first commander enthusiasts of the format will be building around on the day Oath releases. The lands they'll need to make up the mana base are the "true colorless" ones, so I'll be focusing on those.
Opportunities
Myriad Landscape - This is another Commander 2014-only card that appeared in the less popular "Sworn to Darkness," "Peer Through Time," and "Guided by Nature" decks. The big catch with this particular card is that it also searches for basics...like the new Wastes, which can help power out our new colorless commander.
Terrain Generator - This was originally printed in Nemesis, and we already discussed how poor Masques block was from a sales standpoint. It did get reprinted in the Duel Deck Jace vs. Chandra (and again in the anthology reprinting), but neither of those print runs was particularly large. So the number of available copies is likely far lower than you might think.
The ability to put additional lands into play every turn is nothing to sneeze at, and being completely colorless allows non-green decks a way to ramp (as long as they have additional lands in hand). This will let players put Wastes into play from their hand to power Kozilek out faster.
Mystifying Maze - Printed pre-Innistrad (before one of the biggest explosions in the playerbase and therefore in print runs as well), this throwback to Maze of Ith actually plays very well in Commander. Sadly you can't target your own creatures to re-use enters-the-battlefield abilities, but you can use it politically to assist allies to re-trigger theirs.
Coming from a core set, we can assume there are fewer copies of this floating around out there compared to the block sets from the same era (Scars of Mirrodin for those interested.)
Scorched Ruins - This might be our biggest breakout star on the list. It's a single-print rare from Weatherlight printed in 1997 that can jump your mana production, à la Ancient Tomb or City of Traitors. While the cost is steep (sacrificing two untapped lands), this type of effect is hard to come by and borders on broken.
The current price tag is relatively low (sub-$3 as of this writing). I picked up two for myself after researching this article just in case.
Winding Canyons - This card was on Sigmund Ausfresser's old spec list from back in 2014 and since then it's actually done quite well. I remember picking them up in the $2-3 range and now they are sitting at $7-8.
As anyone who has played against Prophet of Kruphix can tell you, the flash ability here is very powerful. Being able to cast your colorless general at instant speed (especially this new Kozilek, who can then refill your hand) will likely lead to some epic games.
While this card has already moved upward once, it's a single-print rare on the Reserved List (again dating to 1997), so the ceiling is much higher than for many other speculation targets.
Legacy
By listing all of the cards available in Commander, we've conveniently covered everything that's an option for Legacy as well. The challenge in that format, of course, is a much higher bar for playables to make the grade. As a 99-card singleton format, there's simply more room in Commander decks for the second, third, and fourth best versions of a given effect---in Legacy not so much.
While I love the new Kozilek for Modern and Commander, I don't think he cuts it in Legacy. The biggest benefit of the previous Eldrazi titans was the stupidly broken annihilator mechanic. Kozilek's best attribute (the card draw) requires you cast him, which isn't likely to happen in Legacy outside of the specific interaction with Omniscience.
The ability to pitch cards to counter spells is still extremely strong---but as someone who has played a good bit of Legacy, I'd rather be staring across the table at him than Emrakul, the Aeons Torn any day. He's just not likely to find a home unless some deck that's already maxed out on 4x Emrakul is interested in more Eldrazi.
To make matters worse, on the card drawing front Kozilek still has to compete with Griselbrand. Big Daddy Griz is still king of that hill, since his ability can be used repeatedly and at instant speed.
Depending what else gets spoiled in Oath, we may yet see something with <> mana that could make a splash in Legacy. That's something to look out for, as if any of the rarer cards mentioned in this article suddenly become real staples, their ceiling could be pretty absurd.
probably rattle off Winter Orb, Icy Manipulator, and Stasis. Yeah, I'm that guy. I eventually started playing Legacy and began focusing on competitive Magic in the days when Mystic Enforcer and Exalted Angel were amazing creatures. I'm still doing the Legacy thing, playing both 
You play a land, get red from a Simian Spirit Guide, and then cast a ritual.
Caverns requires you to exile a card so always choose a second ritual first. You shouldn't need more than one. That second ritual will usually only be fuel for Kargan Dragonlord or an early Koth of the Hammer, and Caverns should do that job for you. Redundant Swords, Gemstones, Moons, Chalices, threats, and excessive lands are also fair exile bait.
of connecting, and they are themselves easily cast under a Moon. Flamespeaker will quickly cause the game to snowball in your favor. His card advantage cannot be understated and, simply put, the Prophet is bonkers. Sword of War and Peace is often overlooked and for good reason: its payoff is dependent on cards staying in both players' hands which is unlikely in Modern. That said, consider this deck's game plan. Since your opponent will generally have a grip full of cards, the Sword trigger, combined with the larger body of the attacker, will usually end the game in one or two turns. It's not uncommon to cast and equip it on the same turn by going all-in and chaining rituals. An unmolested Flamespeaker wielding the Sword will generally win the game immediately. As an added bonus, Sword also grants protection from two of the most important creature removal colors in Magic.
Kargan Dragonlord becomes an 8/8 fire-breathing monster surprisingly quickly when you feed it rituals and Simian Spirit Guides. He puts our mana to use when there is nothing else to do and is a fantastic clock on his own, even if he only grows up to be a 4/4. Oh, he can carry the Sword too. Koth of the Hammer tops out the curve, and you're only happy to see two if you can exile one to make your Gemstone Caverns lucky. The planeswalker pushes through that last bit of damage, levels up Kargan Dragonlord randomly, and, if for some reason there is a late game, he can allow your Mountains to ping for the kill. Don't forget that, when the situation calls for it, you can even beat with Wild Cantors and Simian Spirit Guides.
Shattering Spree is, without question, one of the best weapons there is against Affinity. Shatterstorm was a consideration but it was discarded as being too slow as sometimes there is no acceleration and a ritual only bumps us up one mana. With Spree, we hit the targets that matter cheaply. Bonus points for replicate copies being put directly on the stack which means only the original is countered if Chalice is on one!
Game 1
Then out comes Etched Champion to block all day every day.
Game 2
Game 2
Game 2
He drops a Wild Nacatl and I power out a Chalice at one on my first turn. He joins his opening Forest with a followup Plains and starts beating me for two (then three) every turn with the Cat. It's a very close game and I'm afraid I'm within range of some kind of burn spell like Rift Bolt. Thankfully, Dragonlord is there to close. I chump his Nacatl before swinging in with an 8/8 Kargan equipped with Sword of War and Peace, hitting for lethal. I had just topdecked a Guide and had exactly enough mana to level him to eight for the win.
In terms of the maindeck, I only cast Koth once. This is disappointing, because I really like the card a lot for how aggressive it is. That said, it clearly wasn't needed. I don't want to deviate from the deck's gameplan, but a couple of removal spells or another lock piece might be better than the cool planeswalker. Maybe I can use those slots to improve my Affinity matchup or to strengthen my game against the rest of the field even more. Perhaps stick in Molten Rain. There's a lot of room for improvement and I'm excited to see where the deck goes.
Wizards outlined the most current version of the turn four rule in their decision to ban Seething Song. In his "
It's all starting to come together. The bolded piece refers to the initial phrasing of the turn four rule, which shared the "consistently" and "turn three" elements but made no reference to the "top-tier" qualifier. As Lauer explains, the DCI updated this older rule following Philadelphia, inserting the deck's top-tier status alongside the consistency and speed dimensions. Writing just a month before Lauer's September announcement, Tom LaPille articulated this first definition at the rule in the seminal "
rule. Of course, if you've ever browsed Gatherer for the next broken combo, it takes about two minutes to find some fragile interaction that ends the game in the turns 1-3 range. Who doesn't want to lead a mana dork into turn two Wall of Blood into turn three Rite of Consumption? That doesn't even count the mainstream ways to close a game by turn three, whether in Infect, Amulet Bloom, Affinity, or even Twin decks powered by Simian Spirit Guide.
Storm pilots Matthias Hunt and Kyle Stoll 
The first likely explanation is statistical. Unless a deck is top-tier, Wizards is unlikely to have sufficient matchup data to calculate a meaningful turn 1-3 win-rate. Stated simply, N is just too small. If I'm taking names with my sick Soulflayer blitz deck in the MTGO practice rooms, I might only be contributing 10-20 matches per week to the Wizards dataset. That's not nearly enough information for Wizards to calculate my turn 1-3 win-rate, especially against major decks. Maybe I'm regularly facing non-interactive Nykthos Green players. Maybe I'm running hot. Maybe I'm queuing up at a time of day where my opponents are exhausted and playing poorly. Wizards can eliminate these explanations with enough data, but if the deck isn't top-tier, it won't contribute enough data to reliably determine the win-turn rate.
Next, here are similar numbers for Blazing Shoal Infect, which fell to a ban after just a single tournament:
Hopefully this article helps us reach a sharper understanding of the turn four rule, its background, and its specific clauses. Use these definitions to access ban statements you stumble upon during your Modern travels. For example, all the talk about a Goryo's Vengeance or Nourishing Shoal ban collapses once we consider the top-tier element of the rule. With a metagame share under 1% and no major wins since Grand Prix Charlotte and a 
While we discussed many topics (which we’ll get to soon) another friend and I had an interesting discussion regarding Splinter Twin in Modern. With 
As far as blue combo goes, Splinter Twin is currently the only archetype that qualifies. This would absolutely elevate Twin to “probably” overpowered levels, as we saw at Pro Tour Philadelphia in 2011. Amulet Bloom, Ad Nauseum, Scapeshift, and Storm all use blue and would appreciate the extra power provided by the cantrip upgrade, but probably wouldn’t be too powerful as a result. Ad Nauseum hasn’t been above fringe in a while. Nor has Storm. In addition, Seething Song being banned means Storm could probably safely see a power bump without getting too powerful. Let’s take a closer look at Scapeshift.
For four years Splinter Twin has been Modern’s de facto “King of the Hill”. In more ways than we can count, Splinter Twin has been manipulating the format, placing little pressures on every decision we make regarding deckbuilding and gameplay. We’ve been living under the Twin shadow for so long that we’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to be free of its presence. Spellskite? Rending Volley? Seal of Primordium? Abrupt Decay? Half the sideboard cards in the format (and much of the maindeck removal) are in place primarily because of their effectiveness at killing that stupid Deceiver Exarch or its Splintery brethren enabler. With Splinter Twin no longer in the picture, we might see some interesting cascades start to happen.
In the end, it really comes down to perspective. I constantly get slaughtered by Twin opponents that CAN'T be that much better than me (read: they are) yet I can’t win with Twin when I pick it up myself. A player that has poured his life and soul into grinding Twin matches and knows every line and can plan ten turns ahead would hate to see the carpet ripped out from under him. There’s also the “Modern Is Great Right Now” argument, which I 100% agree with. I love Modern. There’s 20 decks I can think of right now to play (my Modern Video series demonstrates this) and 30 more under the surface when I start digging. Maybe it’s the designer in me that can’t take anything for what it is, and constantly has to wonder “what would happen if we shifted this…” that has me looking for a change, but again, perspective. It’s not like Splinter Twin is full of cards that don’t go in other decks, like Amulet Bloom or Affinity. Ban Splinter Twin and you still have 67 cards that see play in other archetypes. Worth some thought at least.
Star Wars CCG was the greatest game I never played. Too young at eight to learn the complicated rules that I still can’t grasp at 24, I watched my dad battle at the kitchen table for most of the late 90’s. Every single card was full of gametext, and while most Magic turns have 3, maybe four, decisions involved, SWCCG contained literally hundreds of decisions at every stage of the game. Resource management, planning ahead, deck construction, bluffing, concentration (tracking a card through your circulating deck so you can find it later) and more combined to make a game that was more intricate that Magic will EVER be, and I’m just talking about its base set of 324 cards.
outside world or learning about whatever they teach in third grade. Doesn’t matter: my world is better. Now, everyone has seen Avengers and knows who Iron Man is. What was once Comic-Con culture is now real world culture. All the nerds grew up and started creating, and all the jerks are still getting wasted on the weekends and work dead-end jobs. I play Magic with these nerds daily, and work as a server on the weekends with a completely different social class. Explaining to them what I do for fun when they invite me to waste my hard-earned disposable income on alcohol will never get old. We are dreaming, we are designing, and twenty years from now the world will be what we want it to be. I'll be back next week with something more normal. If you don't like this kind of article do let me know, I'll try to be more on topic in the future. When it's not the week when Star Wars comes out.
![Insider: [MTGO] Short-Selling, Part 4 – Beyond Short-Selling](https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/IMG_7555.jpg)
Tour Fate Reforged performance drove the early Abzan dominance in the spring, where Bloodbraid Rhino carried Abzan to a 
Based on this, Affinity is an easy selection for our banlist-test grudge match. Numerous sources have attested to the 50-50 nature of Abzan vs. Affinity. We see this frequently in quantitative pieces, such as those published 
It should come as no surprise you want to be on the play against Affinity, and Stoneforge Abzan was no exception. Similarly, the more you can prolong the Affinity matchup, the better it is for the Abzan pilot. This is particularly true when it comes to Stoneforge Mystic. Landing the turn 3 Batterskull before your opponent's fourth turn makes a world of difference, especially if you can beat Steel Overseer to its first tap. That said, Abzan couldn't push above 50-50 on the play even with Mystic in the mix, which suggests the Game 1 advantage remains solidly on Affinity's side of the court. For the sake of completion, here are the high-level Affinity stats, which just flip the Abzan numbers.
Win or lose, Abzan dropped a turn 2 Mystic onto the battlefield in 43% of its games. That's right around the expected value of drawing a Mystic in your opening 7-9 cards when you're running the full playset. There were three games where I had to hold removal or Inquisition instead of living the dream (typically blowing up Steel Overseer or discarding Etched Champion or an uncast Plating), but most of the time the turn 2 Mystic was the right play. Indeed, in those games where Abzan saw a Mystic at all, she landed on turn 2 in 62% of games.
Hmm. Maybe Stoneforge wasn't so decisive after all...
to ignore lifegain. On the other hand, both decks pack significantly more removal than Affinity's four Blasts, not to mention anti-lifegain bullets in Atarka's Command and Skullcrack. Without testing these matchups, it's hard to know if one factor would compensate for another. This underscores the need for further testing, but also the importance of looking for matchup themes. For example, the Affinity results suggest Burn would probably be okay battling through a Mystic. It has enough spells to either kill Stoneforge (a noticeable Mystic weakness in even the removal-light Affinity tests), or to ignore the Skull and blast for lethal (as Affinity could do with its flying creatures). Then again the landlocked, creature-packed Gruul Zoo might struggle here.
