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Insider: Rotating Cards to Hold – Future Value in Khans and Fate Reforged

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Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF) may not rotate until April, but to get the most value out of your cards you need to act now.

We all know that in a few months as rotation approaches there will be a mass exodus of players and collectors from Khans and Fate cards. The eve of the rotation is not the time to be looking to dump these cards, because you'll have already missed the boat.

By then prices will have already plummeted and there will be little point to selling out. So we need to get to work now liquidating the future bulk.

Given the choice, selling all our cards from KTK and FRF is better than selling none. That said, the best option lies somewhere in the middle---we want to keep the stuff worth keeping and sell the stuff that will take a nose dive.

Today's article is about predicting which cards will have future value, as we begin to out the cards destined for the dollar boxes.

The most important quality I consider when assessing a card's financial future is whether or not somebody will play it. If not, it will have zero demand and therefore also zero value.

Yes, yes, old collectible cards like Alpha rares can retain value without being played due to the collectible market. However, in the case of Khans block, none of the cards are collectible enough to retain value in this manner. In order for new cards to be worth anything somebody needs to play them.

The two major ways people play with non-Standard-legal cards are in Constructed tournaments (Modern, Legacy, Vintage, etc.) and casual play (Commander, the kitchen table, made-up formats, etc.).

For today's article I made a composite list of all of the cards I could see having a home somewhere post-rotation. I'm okay holding these cards into their post-Standard lifespans because I think they'll ultimately keep or gain value.

Khans of Tarkir

Khans of Tarkir is one of the best sets Wizards has released in a long time. For collectors, this is a mixed blessing. On the one hand there are lots of great cards to trade and sell to players, but it's kind of awkward because the set sold like absolute gangbusters.

While demand for awesome cards will always be strong, the supply is very high. This means there's a lot of competition among sellers and being ahead of the curve is extremely important.

There was a period of time before the Theros block rotation when dealers were paying $5-ish on Temple of Malady and literally two weeks later the buy price had dropped to $1. The bottom really does fall out on certain cards if you wait past their expiration date.

A lot of people want to wait on selling or trading cards until after the January set comes out, but seriously what is going to change? Do people really think some new printing will make a bad card suddenly awesome? I'm going to go out on a limb and say there are no secret $10 gems in either set waiting to be discovered.

There was an error retrieving a chart for See the Unwritten

That being said, See the Unwritten is one card that could actually increase in stock depending on what giant monsters appear in the next set. The card already spiked in anticipation of BFZ and has dropped off since. I'd hold onto it just in case. It's also a solid casual card, so there isn't much upside to selling now.

Without further ado, let's take a look at the cards from Khans of Tarkir that I think will have a future.

Anafenza, the Foremost

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

Anafenza is what we in the biz call a great card. It has unbelievable stats and is grossly undercosted. The card will always compete with Doran, the Siege Tower for a place in Modern but I don't think it's cut and dry which one is better.

I love the graveyard hate built into this card. Were you interested in executing some Collected Company-based creature combo? Hmm. Not with Anafenza on the board. Most decks have some sort of interaction with the graveyard so this card has a ton of value.

As a mythic rare it's also a lot harder to come by than some of the cards on this list. It will certainly take a dip when rotation hits, but expect it to climb back over the long run.

Keep in mind it will take several years to return to its pre-rotation price. I don't mind holding this card for a while, but if you're looking for short-term gains feel free to jump ship.

Lastly, this is unlikely to see a Modern Masters reprint, and thus a good candidate to be a slow gainer.

Become Immense

There was an error retrieving a chart for Become Immense

I love this card and have played it to success in both Standard and Modern. In Standard in Atarka Red, and in Modern as a singleton in Zoo.

Of course, the primary home for this card, in basically every format, is Infect. However, it's also powerful in aggressive damage-based decks, and a natural fit anywhere when paired up with Temur Battle Rage.

A fully delved Become Immense is literally the most efficient damage spell ever printed. Six damage for one mana is unheard of, and puts every "true" burn spell to shame.

When a card is the best at what it does, it will always have a high demand. I see this being the case for Become Immense moving forward.

Deflecting Palm

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deflecting Palm

Deflecting Palm sees sideboard play in Modern Zoo and Burn decks. At $0.50 a piece for a Modern playable, it seems hard to justify even bothering to sell or trade away this card.

It's actually pretty scary to play against. For instance, it can deflect away a giant Bogles creature (and stops the lifegain), a robot with an equipped Plating, or an Infect monster pumped all the way up. Another interesting factoid is that because of the way Palm is worded, it cannot be redirected or messed with by Spellskite.

Hardened Scales

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hardened Scales

Hardened Scales is a card I've thought about jamming into Affinity on more than one occasion and I'm sure somebody will make it work at some point in the future.

Aside from that it's a very hot casual card, because of the way it lets you go super big. It reminds me of a Doubling Season or a Parallel Lives. Every block has one for the kiddies...

Hold onto this card and you'll get rewarded. 100% on that.

Hooded Hydra

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hooded Hydra

Another casual gem. Hydras are the epitome of what the casual kitchen table crowd love, and this card is much better than other hydras commanding a higher price tag.

Nobody wants this right now, and it's easy to pick up (and hard to get rid of.) Rather than sell it as a bulk mythic, do yourself a favor and hold onto it for a while. People will want to play with this down the road.

Jeskai Ascendancy

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

Ascendancy is a crazy-powerful Magic card. It lost a lot when Treasure Cruise went away but don't underestimate the interaction between Fatestitcher and Ascendancy. I think the deck will find a more permanent home in Modern, and possibly Legacy, in the future.

It also doubles as a "tokens" card for the kitchen table. I have no interest in selling mine off for $0.50 each.

Monastery Swiftspear

There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Swiftspear

Easily one of the most powerful cards in the entire block. I like to get schwifty in basically every single format it's legal.

The card is ridiculously powerful and uncuttable from any deck looking to cast red creatures and burn spells. It's already a proven winner in both Legacy and Modern.

Swiftspear's high price tag has everything to do with its applications outside of Standard. I'd hold onto this one and actively look to pick up more, especially if the price starts to dip.

Murderous Cut

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murderous Cut

Murderous Cut sees play going all the way back to Legacy and even Vintage. It's a solid Magic card that does something supremely unique. Any deck playing black now has access to a one-mana Terminate for the rest of time.

Cut is just one of those cards that will be good forever and see lots of play across a wide range of formats. I also really like picking up foil copies.

Siege Rhino

There was an error retrieving a chart for Siege Rhino

Good card is good. People are going to play with this card forever because of how absurdly powerful it is. It is already a Modern staple in Junk. I've certainly played against this card in Legacy a few times as well.

I look at its trajectory as similar to Thragtusk post-rotation. Tusk was basically worthless but its raw power level eventually brought it back up.

I'm not interested in selling this card off for a couple of bucks. I'll wait and feel confident that it will be a $5+ card down the road.

Fetchlands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

Fetchlands. I'm holding mine.

I think they'll dip a little bit as rotation starts to approach, but they'll rebound and then some. They are necessary to play every single competitive format (outside of Pauper) and I don't see them showing up as reprints in Modern Masters.

Fate Reforged

Fate Reforged is not my favorite set of all time. It certainly was a disappointment after fetchlands and the absurdity of the delve spells in Khans. However, it does have some nice keepers in it that are likely to gain value over the long run.

Alesha, Who Smiles at Death

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alesha, Who Smiles at Death

The card basically has no value which means there's no reason to sell it. However, it is a great little casual card and an awesome Tiny Leaders Commander for Mardu decks.

Archfiend of Depravity

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archfiend of Depravity

Same argument applies here. Archfiend has basically zero value and is an interesting casual card, particularly powerful in multiplayer. Don't bulk him off because he might be worth something someday.

Gurmag Angler

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gurmag Angler

If this card doesn't have $1 common written all over it I don't know what does. The flavor text on the card might actually be, "$1 common." I'm cool with trying to pick these up whenever I can.

Monastery Mentor

There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Mentor

Mentor already has a high price tag but don't be fooled---the card hardly sees any play in Standard!

Mentor is a powerhouse in both Vintage (where it's the win condition in basically all the best decks), and Legacy. I wouldn't be surprised to see this card shooting up in Modern soon as well. My thought is that it will be going up even at the time of rotation.

Monastery Siege

There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Siege

Siege has seen some Modern and Legacy play already and is actually pretty sweet. It allows you to gas up the graveyard and also has utility as a sideboard card against Burn decks (where it essentially becomes Chill).

Like others on this list, it's just too cheap to sell. I'm keeping mine.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

I don't even care if Tasigur was reprinted or not because the $3.5 price tag on this card is absolute absurdity. Delve as a mechanic has proven to be completely bonkers, and this one comes attached to a repeatable card advantage engine.

There is no chance this card doesn't rebound and become more valuable in the future. It's literally too good to fail.

Temporal Trespass

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temporal Trespass

Here we have a mythic rare Time Walk effect that's actually good. Don't be a fool and sell this card for $1.5. The Commander, casual, and even Modern players of the future will create a demand for it.

This may be one of the delve "duds," but casual players love their extra turns---and there's no guarantee it won't see play somewhere as a Time Walk for one more mana.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

I have a hard time gauging a card like Ugin because I'm not exactly sure where the value is coming from. On the surface I think the super high price tag is due to Standard, but it's also fantastic in Modern Tron, and a dragon planeswalker for casual...

I elected to include Ugin on this list, but I admit a lot of the demand is Standard-driven. So I could either way on this card. When it surged back to $50 a few weeks ago I sold my extra copies, but I held onto my personal playset in case I wanted to play it in Standard.

There is also a good chance this card still has room to grow in Standard if Oath of the Gatewatch makes it even better.

~

No matter what you do with these particular cards, be aware that the window is rapidly closing. Get rid of what you don't want before the next Pro Tour hits.

After that, everybody will start thinking about rotation and you won't be ahead of the curve. It's only down from there.

Thanks for reading.

- Brian

Scrap Savant – Zada’s Disciples

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Welcome back to Scrap Savant.

This week's list was creative to say the least. Your voice at the polls had me playing a blue-red deck based around Zada, Hedron Grinder and Disciple of the Ring. I doubt that's even been done before, and it's certainly not a normal pairing.

That's why I'm loving this series so far---we get to play the "junk" cards largely passed over by the general Magic population, and discover them together.

I modified this week's list a little after some initial testing. This is what I took to the queues:

Zadas Disciples

Creatures

4 Zada, Hedron Grinder
2 Disciple of the Ring
4 Elusive Spellfist
3 Gudul Lurker
4 Monastery Swiftspear

Spells

4 Dragon Fodder
3 Hordeling Outburst
2 Refocus
4 Titan's Strength
1 Taigam's Strike
2 Dance of the Skywise
3 Sure Strike

Lands

6 Island
6 Mountain
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Skyline Cascade
2 Mystic Monastery
2 Foundry of the Consuls

Sideboard

3 Glint
2 Dance of the Skywise
3 Negate
2 Outpost Siege

At the time of uploading to MTGGoldfish, this deck costs a grand total of 3.38tix, or $28.27 in paper.

Consider that's already including a full four copies of Monastery Swiftspear. Swiftspear costs more than most of the rares we'll be using in this series, but this time I made an exception because it's one of the free giveaways to new accounts, so it's likely easier to obtain.

I initially tried to exclude Monastery Swiftspear, but finally decided to add it since the cost of the deck was quite low. Swiftspear is an amazing card overall, and any creature with prowess we can find is at a premium in this deck (which, for our purposes, includes Elusive Spellfist.)

So from the standpoint of marginal utility, Swiftspear adds a ton for a low cost.

Intro & Games

Deck Tech

Games 1-2 vs. 5-Color Rally

Games 3-4 vs. White Weenie

Thoughts

As you can see from the videos, the deck is really all or nothing. We don't have many outs to a lot of situations, which impeded us quite a bit.

Zada, Hedron Grinder is a really powerful card, there's no question about that. Perhaps this specific pairing of colors wasn't ideal. Disciple of the Ring was also pretty lackluster---I was never enamored with the card, and it might be a bad fit in this particular strategy.

There was a lot of synergy with a spell-heavy list focused around Zada, but I don't think that's a good enough reason to pair the two cards. There are plenty of other color combinations to try with Zada, Hedron Grinder, and at the least we've shown that Zada is an extremely powerful "build around me" card. Perhaps we may see Zada break into Constructed in a larger capacity at some point.

An aside: Elusive Spellfist is actually quite powerful in its own right. It's pretty outclassed by Seeker of the Way in the prowess-based strategies, but Spellfist will stick around after Seeker has rotated. Just a thought.

Additional Upgrades

As per usual, I want to provide some upgrades to the list for anyone looking to spend additional money. The deck plays really well with prowess, and I recommend Abbot of Keral Keep as the first upgrade.

As I mentioned in the previous article, Abbot would have been great to include initially if we didn't have building parameters. All things considered it's also fairly inexpensive, and if you look hard enough you can get a good deal on them.

Looking further, since this build is strictly blue-red I would suggest investing in a better mana-base next. That would likely require a fair bit more budget, but aim for cards like Wooded Foothills or Shivan Reef.

Considering Foothills will rotate sooner than Reef, I would stick mainly to these cards:

  • Abbot of Keral Keep - 3.64tix/$6.60 each
  • Shivan Reef - 0.45tix/$1.63 each
  • Pia and Kiran Nalaar - 0.92tix/$1.00 each

There isn't much more to upgrade in the list. Zada, Hedron Grinder can be used in a multitude of ways, but in these colors there just isn't much else that's exciting.

Even the addition of just Abbot makes the deck much more formidable. It also opens up the option of Temur Battle Rage, which is super powerful in its own right. Additional prowess creatures, especially one as good as Abbot, do make this deck much more potent.

Here's a sample upgraded list:

Zadas Disciples (Additional Budget)

Creatures

4 Zada, Hedron Grinder
4 Abbot of Keral Keep
2 Disciple of the Ring
3 Elusive Spellfist
4 Monastery Swiftspear
1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

Spells

4 Dragon Fodder
3 Hordeling Outburst
4 Titan's Strength
1 Taigam's Strike
3 Temur Battle Rage
2 Dance of the Skywise
2 Sure Strike
2 Refocus

Lands

6 Island
6 Mountain
4 Shivan Reef
2 Skyline Cascade
2 Swiftwater Cliffs
2 Mystic Monastery
2 Foundry of the Consuls

Hope you all enjoyed the deck and the videos. It was really interesting to build.

Let's open the polls for the next deck, shall we? We'll get a little more creative with the polls as we go. Let's focus on just one card this time:

See you after the results are in, and thanks for reading!

- Chaz

Insider: Rotate Now, Not in April

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Hello Insiders, and welcome back.

A while back I wrote an article called “Rotate Now, Not in October.” I feel the need to revisit this topic as we come up on an important rotation date for Standard.

In April, Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF) will go away, leaving us with Dragons of Tarkir (DTK), Magic Origins (ORI), Battle for Zendikar block and Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI). As this will be the first Spring rotation ever, we don't know exactly how it will go, but we can assume it will largely resemble Fall rotations from past years.

We do know the departure of fetchlands will remove a major financial barrier that has been keeping people out of Standard. We discussed this on the latest QS Cast, and agreed that recent tournament results may indicate that finance is dictating deck choices. Expect Standard to attract more players after SOI debuts.

None of this is news to any of you, and by now I’m sure you've removed any and all rotting prospects from KTK and FRF from your inventory. If you haven’t, the time is past due and I advise acting as soon as possible.

I wrote about this in several articles during October. In the new landscape of Magic finance, there's a greater threat of reprints, which constitutes a major hurdle to the investor. Reprints were responsible for tanking some of our more promising prospects from last year. Notably, Warden of the First Tree never took off, despite seeing a considerable amount of play.

When I look back at my specs from this period, some were solid, some less so. My weaker selections included many of the penny stocks, as well as stuff like Narset Transcendent, which proved to be a mediocre card.

This time around we need to be smarter, and even when targeting penny stocks, not get cute. I'm going to refocus and look for the solid playables.

Those penny stock purchases didn't end up horribly, because I buylisted them after Pro Tour BFZ to more or less break even. Taking credit on trade-ins largely wiped out what would have been some undesirable losses.

Of course, that's not really where I want to be, and there's a better way---identifying the best candidates for continued success after rotation, even if they're boring, known quantities.

The Silkwrap Effect

There are always a few key uncommons that play a pivotal role in any format. For the last several months, Silkwrap has been occupying that spot, but there's no guarantee that continues.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silkwrap

Unlike something like Stoke the Flames, which was a format-defining powerhouse no matter how you slice it, Silkwrap is a product of a particular environment. It serves a specific purpose when the meta dictates its necessity, and in another context the chase uncommon may be different.

There are plenty of powerful uncommons worth looking at. Here are some uncommons I pulled up from Trader Tools that are posting the lowest spreads.

Low-Spread Uncommons

That’s already quite a large list. That’s not even accounting for cards like Silumgar's Scorn, which doesn’t have an attractive spread due to retail sales, but can be found for considerably less if one takes the extra time to look.

My vote is for cards that have already proven themselves, including Zulaport Cutthroat, Stasis Snare and the aforementioned Silumgar’s Scorn. With the meta shifting again in a drastic way, maybe Silkwrap will be rendered obsolete and replaced with other options.

Esper Dragons has almost leap-frogged over Dark Jeskai as the premier control strategy. After rotation the deck remains intact, and players will continue to play it.

I don't foresee a card like Dragonlord Ojutai going anywhere, but it's not that attractive due to a high buy-in. A complimentary card like Scorn, on the other hand, may end up being a fantastic buylist play.

I don't want to speculate too hard on these uncommons, but I think they're worth stocking up when the opportunity presents itself at a reasonable price.

Penny Stocks & Mythics

I do love penny stocks, and who doesn’t? Low entry, with a bare minimum buylist price of $0.10 per rare. There’s always opportunity to be had, but we have to be careful. It's easy to want to get cute (I'm guilty as well), which is a good way to end up overpaying on a pile of garbage.

The big issue here is the high volume of these cards in circulation. BFZ rares, and even mythics, have been opened en masse due to the ongoing Expedition craze (which I'll talk about later below). Add this to the general trend of each Standard set selling more than the year before.

No matter how much we wanted Mantis Rider to go over 1$, it just couldn’t sustain that price for more than brief periods. This led those of us with tons of copies to sheepishly buylist them back, breaking even or taking a loss.

So tread carefully.

I've split the possible specs into two categories. One is for pure penny stocks. The other is for mythics and rares I think merit a reconsideration, but whose prices are above bulk.

A few notes: lean on ORI over BFZ, and lean on mythics over rares, assuming you can find good prices.

Penny Stocks

Rares and Mythics

There’s obviously not much to draw from considering we’re working with only two sets. A few of these have dropped a lot since their release, but continue to be what I would call “quintessential Standard cards.”

A perfect example of this is Drana, Liberator of Malakir. It's an inherently powerful card, with tons of potential, that happens to be kept in check by Mantis Rider right now. Its fortune may change come April.

In his article from yesterday, Mike Lanigan also pointed out Kiora, Master of the Depths. Like Narset Transcendant, Kiora looks to have some interesting build-around potential, but unlike Narset she's already started to see play in successful lists.

If might be a good time to grab cheap copies of the merfolk planeswalker. If anything, ramp strategies are only going to become more abundant once Oath of the Gatewatch releases, and Kiora slots right into the archetype.

Mike mentioned the G/u Eldrazi Ramp deck from GP Kobe in his article, and we talked about it on QS Cast as well. If you haven't seen it yet, take a look:

G/u Eldrazi Ramp (6th place at GP Kobe)

Creatures

2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
4 Leaf Gilder
4 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Spells

4 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
2 Kiora, Master of the Depths
4 Nissa's Renewal
3 Nissa's Pilgrimage
4 Part the Waterveil
4 Explosive Vegetation
2 Dig Through Time

Lands

1 Prairie Stream
4 Shrine of the Forsaken Gods
8 Forest
4 Lumbering Falls
3 Island
3 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Sanctum of Ugin
3 Dispel
4 Jaddi Offshoot
4 Winds of Qal Sisma
1 Void Winnower
2 Conduit of Ruin

Part the Waterveil is certainly interesting to see in a ramp deck. The deck obviously did well last weekend, and it looks to be a contender. Alongside the renewed interest in (Dark) Temur, Kiroa 2.0 suddenly looks a lot better than initially evaluated.

People didn't think Kiora was terrible, of course, just overvalued. That was certainly true at the time, but with BFZ prices suppressed right now, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see some cards rebound. Remember, Expeditions aren't nearly as common as the fetchlands from Khans, so they can only soak up so much of the total set value.

What About Expeditions?

Speaking of Expeditions, let's talk about a few of them I think are well positioned before I go.

ExpeditionChartPrices

By now everyone knows these cards can hold their value. They have proven quite popular, which is clearly reflected in the price.

While the graph shows a decline, you can see it starting to trend upward at the tail end. Some of the less in-demand Expeditions, like Smoldering Marsh, are still dropping though, which has kept the average down and belied the movement exhibited by other Expeditions. Scalding Tarn, for example, has seen considerable gains since BFZ was released.

BFZ packs have been opened week in and week out for drafts and such, and there’s still a while to go. But if everyone has been waiting to pick up their Expeditions until the price drops more, the demand might be catching up or exceeding supply soon.

There may be a reprieve once Oath of the Gatewatch is released and a brand new set of Expeditions diverts people’s attention. At the same time, if they’re not as desirable as Battle for Zendikar Expeditions, there will likely be a renewed interest to purchase the latter.

If you're looking to invest in the Expeditions, sooner rather than later is the mantra. Some are obviously more appealing than others---here's what I would target:

Value-Priced Expeditions

The blue fetches are obviously great, and probably the Expeditions with the most robust future. I don't think it's crazy to take that direction, but I'm focusing on the ones with a lower entry point.

Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are great and all, but I don't know how much upside they provide, especially in the short term. Scalding Tarn has posted some drastic gains, so there's definitely profit to be had---but at a steeper buy-in.

I'm looking to get the highest return for my investment, which leads me to the Expeditions listed above. They're available for a considerably lower price, and largely see the same amount of play in both Modern and Legacy.

In Modern, red and green lands actually look to be supplanting blue lands as the most played ones. Here's a chart of the top five lands played in Modern right now, according to MTGGoldfish:

Source:MTGGoldfish

In Legacy blue is still king, but Verdant Catacombs sees lots of play there too. I think that Expedition specifically is one of the most promising---it has a considerable play percentage, and a drastically lower price entry in comparison.

I may be a bit biased when it comes to Cinder Glade, but it is the only Battle land seeing play in eternal formats, due to Scapeshift.

In any case, I'll be monitoring the price of Expeditions as we move forward, and I'll be sure to share my thoughts with you as they develop.

As always, if you're looking for future targets, there's some fantastic discussion taking place on the Insider forums and on QS Cast, as well as insights offered by other writers here at QS. Consider taking a look at Mike Lanigan's article about recent tournaments for some more ideas.

Until next time everyone

-Chaz @ChazVMTG

Eat My Dust: Blowing Smoke With BUG Faeries

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I once lamented the long waiting periods between metagame shifts. Innovation takes time, I thought. Eye-catching technology doesn't ceaselessly flow from premier events. Except, it seems, in Modern. UBx Faeries has always seen some amount of play among the tribe's dedicated fanbase, but nothing could have prepared the Modern community for Anthony Huynh's shocking 13th-place finish at GP Pittsburgh. Faeries has historically sucked in Modern, but Huynh barely missed the Top 8 on breakers.

pepper

Huynh is one of the Faerie-philes I allude to above, and he's been piloting U/B builds since before April of this year. Winning 5th place in a StarCityGames IQ netted him a Wizards.com feature from Melissa DeTora (which unfortunately omits his decklist) and may have partially inspired David Daniel's 19th-place, Ashiok-fueled deck from GP Charlotte.

I'm more Delver-4-Ever than Spellstutter Lover, but the marquee two-drop definitely impressed me when I first played with it. Shortly after Innistrad's release, I messed around with a RUG Faeries deck that drew groans by Spellstuttering Path to Exiles aimed at my Tarmogoyf. Discovering a certain tribal instant brought my build into black for the first time. My tempo tendencies incited me to pull UBx Faeries away from Huynh's midrange starting point, which meant cutting splashy curve-toppers like Mistbind Clique. This week, I'll discuss the pillars of interaction in Modern and unveil BUG Faeries.

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Interaction 101: Bolt and Goyf

Modern decks are either linear or interactive. Linear decks ignore opponents to quicken their own gameplans, and include Burn, Affinity, and Grishoalbrand. Interactive decks seek to trade resources with opponents and frequently win in methods widely considered "fair," such as attacking with efficient creatures.Tarmogoyf These decks include UR Twin, Jund, and Jeskai Control. U/B Faeries, Esper Control, and WB Midrange have never secured those coveted spots in Modern's top tier because they break the format's unspoken, cardinal rule: if you want to interact, you have to run Lightning Bolt or Tarmogoyf. These two spells are so dramatically undercosted for the versatility and leverage they provide that any deck playing fair wants one or both. Without them, trudging through Modern's carnival of blistering linear decks becomes unbearable.

The exception to this rule: interactive, creature-based aggro decks like Merfolk and Elves, which rely on synergy to get over the Bolt-and-Goyf hump. These decks are still more linear than their spell-based cousins. In my eyes, the U/B Faeries lists we've seen in Modern are clearly spell-based, so this exception does not excuse them from the format's splashing prerequisite.

Lightning BoltBoth Sheridan and I have written about Lightning Bolt's uncontested Modern authority. We noted in our respective articles that the "Bolt Test" influences creature choices across the board, while immediately invalidating a host of otherwise worthy strategies.

Tarmogoyf, too, warps Modern’s landscape around himself. Aggressive two-drops are always measured against the spiky green yardstick. Just as Modern players deliberately sleeve up Bolt-proof cards like Restoration Angel and Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir, many have come to lean on toughness-specific answers (Flame Slash, Dismember, Roast) to diffuse the Goyfs they expect to encounter. A truly formidable Tarmogoyf exceeds his kind's habitual 4/5 stats to resist these removal spells and crush Siege Rhinos in combat. In a deck naturally packing tribal enchantments, this is our Tarmogoyf.

The U/B Problem and Splashing Solutions

Huynh's Pittsburgh results bode well for Faeries in Modern, but one high-profile finish does not a top-tier deck make. My theory about Bolt and Goyf dooms the interactive U/B deck to Modern failure. Including red or green can remedy this issue. Jeff Hoogland's recent Grixis Faeries deck chooses red for Bolt-Snap-Bolt, while I've obviously splashed in the other direction for Tarmogoyf. Since we're already black, green also gives us Modern's scariest catchall removal spell, Abrupt Decay. And to beat those pesky x/1s, the format's deeper-than-you card pool has us covered... with Peppersmoke.

Here's where I landed after a week of grinding:

BUG Faeries, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Spellstutter Sprite
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Instants

4 Abrupt Decay
3 Peppersmoke
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Mana Leak
2 Stubborn Denial
1 Spell Snare

Enchantments

4 Bitterblossom

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Watery Grave
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Breeding Pool
4 Darkslick Shores
2 Mutavault
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest

Sideboard

2 Deathmark
2 Dispel
2 Feed the Clan
3 Nature's Claim
2 Spellskite
2 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek

Peppersmoke: Modern's One-Mana Cryptic

PeppersmokeA couple cards I've always wanted reprinted for Modern abuse are Divert and Disrupt. The former punishes tapped-out opponents by redirecting a malevolent Lightning Bolt to their own creature. The latter Force Spikes everything from Serum Visions to Cruel Ultimatum and sugarcoats things with those three magic words: "Draw a card." Timed precisely, Disrupt is a one-mana Cryptic Command; in theory and practice, so is Divert.

And so is Peppersmoke. Imagine the best-case scenario: shooting Pestermite in response to Splinter Twin with a Bitterblossom in play. That's like, a 3-for-one? Just think of the mana advantage! Peppersmoke's sheer potential for backbreaking conditional plays is the real reason I've sleeved up my Spellstutter Sprites. That, and its tribal sub-type. I mean, picture Smoking Grim Lavamancer in response to a Roast pointed at garden-variety Tarmogoyf. I'm getting chills just typing this stuff.

Plugging Holes

Being really cute may get you far in life, but it won't earn you a Modern trophy. I wouldn't run Peppersmoke unless it addressed a problem common to all non-red decks.

Birds of ParadiseMany cards see Modern play despite dying to Lightning Bolt. Birds of Paradise and Noble Hierarch, Glistener Elf and Blighted Agent, Signal Pest and Steel Overseer, and Dark Confidant and Young Pyromancer all succumb to the mighty red instant, but are mostly cheap enough to break parity with Bolt on mana. These threats have something else in common: if your opponent doesn't have Lightning Bolt, he's in for a world of pain after they resolve.

Bolt's ubiquity gives players little reason to play x/2 or x/3 creatures over their more efficient x/1 counterparts, and Peppersmoke takes advantage of this predicament by acting as a Bolt with upside in a surprising number of matchups. Hatebears and Infect can steal games from non-red, interactive lynchpins like Abzan as their one-drops go unanswered. Twin and other red decks suppress such strategies with Lightning Bolt. In BUG Faeries, Peppersmoke works alongside Disrupting Shoal to prevent them from getting ahead.

On Electrolyze, Disfigure, and Darkblast

ElectrolyzeI mostly see Electrolyze resolve as a no-landfall Searing Blaze with cantrip. Peppersmoke lacks the versatility of occasionally killing two creatures, but the sizable mana reduction more than compensates. Electrolyze doesn't see more play than it does because it cannot deal with must-answer x/1s early in a game, whereas Peppersmoke is happy to remove a first-turn Delver of Secrets without cantripping. For perspective, any red deck would have spent a precious Lightning Bolt on the Wizard in a heartbeat.

-1/-1 for a single black mana isn't a game-changer. The Esper decks I mentioned before ran Disfigure to deal with early threats. That card has numerous problems, most notably that it's dead weight in some matchups. (Clever, huh?) Peppersmoke can at least target a friendly creature to cycle into something else, and it grows Tarmogoyf for future attacks. Before dismissing a cantripping, Goyf-specific Battlegrowth as "not worth it," remember that Patrick Chapin ran Mishra's Bauble for this exact reason in his Temur Prowess deck. And don't forget that's just Peppersmoke's throwaway mode. I'd argue that sniping early-game enablers in a color combination that has no business doing so trumps Bauble's micro-synergies with fetchlands and Abbot of Keral Keep.

DarkblastI've always liked Darkblast as an early removal spell in non-red decks. In a pinch, and at the cost of a draw step, it does a tasteless but adequate Disfigure impression. The rest of the time, it slays Snapcaster Mage, Vendilion Clique, and whatever other frail body "decks that don't care about Lightning Bolt" throw at you.

No card is faultless, however. Darkblast has the same problem as Disfigure in that when it's dead, it's really dead. I'd also rather have cantripping conditional removal against Snapcaster decks than a recurring -1/-1 effect. Add to that Peppersmoke's favorable interaction with our own Snapcasters, and the fact that it makes Tarmogoyf larger than Tasigur, and it's a no-brainer over Darkblast in the Faeries deck. I'd only favor Darkblast in matchups where a -1/-1 effect is really strong, but our Peppersmoke/Snapcaster package already ensures we dominate those. Smoke's utility elsewhere makes it truly superior.

Explaining the Permission Suite

It wouldn't be Faeries without a big pile of countermagic.

For Little Things

Spellstutter Sprite: The main reason to play this archetype at all, Spellstutter Sprite has relevance throughout the game and counters just about anything with a Bitterblossom on the field. Nabbing one- or two-mana removal spells targeting Tarmogoyf and Tasigur is often game-winning. Early on, we counter whatever Sprite can get her tiny hands on; as Faerie Rogue tokens begin to pile up, we save her for our opponent's few outs to the armada.

Disrupting Shoal: My darling counterspell and one of Modern's sleepers. UBx Faeries is notoriously slow, and Disrupting Shoal allows us to cast Visions into Goyf or Bitterblossom and still neutralize an opponent's play. In longer games, Shoal becomes Spell Blast and makes for a deadly recursion target with Tasigur.

Spell Snare: I started with two of these and loved them. Unfortunately, I had to cut one for the third Mana Leak. Spell Snare hits Modern's best cards and is easily flashed back with Snapcaster Mage. It's always tempo-positive and has prime targets in every matchup that doesn't cascade into something Spellstutter Sprite counters.

For Big Things

Mana Leak: This deck loses to a resolved Wurmcoil Engine. Or Sun Titan. Or Hornet Queen. Mana Leak counters these big, ugly creatures, and pitches to Shoal against lower-curve decks.

Stubborn Denial: These started as Spell Pierce, but I had ferocious regularly enough to try Stubborn Denial. With a fatty on the table, Denial ruins desperate removal attempts. It also organically counters on-curve planeswalkers and spells like Kolaghan's Command for huge tempo swings. A beating with Snapcaster, but I wouldn't run more than two with just six ferocious enablers.

Advantages over BGx and Delver

The first rule of brewing is not to assemble a worse version of an existing deck. As I built and tested BUG Faeries, I compared it to BGx and Delver variants to make sure I wasn't insulting them.

The Best Grind Game OF ALL TIME

We don't lose our midrange matchups with this deck. So far, BUG Faeries has tested very well against Jund and Grixis. The former doesn't stand a chance with its x/1 Confidants and lackluster Bolts.Bitterblossom Flash creatures, Mutavault, and Bitterblossom tokens make Liliana embarrassing. Snapcaster Mage and Serum Visions keep us from running out of gas, and our Goyfs tend to stick around longer than theirs thanks to flashbacked Abrupt Decays. Blossom gets out of hand quickly for Jund and Grixis, so it frequently draws the Decay itself, making Tarmogoyf all the bigger. Spellstutter Sprite and Stubborn Denial give us tremendous late-game staying power in both matchups, since they hard-counter everything. Dispel from the sideboard does a number on all blue midrange decks, and Abrupt Decay hoses Twin variants of every color combination, Grixis and otherwise.

Modern's black midrange decks beat us when they resolve Tasigur, or something really stupid like Grave Titan, through our Mana Leaks. Even then, it's possible a swarm of Faerie Rogues or sated Goyfs kills them anyway. Tasigur also boosts our resilience to midrange strategies, since he comes down for cheap in a deck so loaded with interaction and actually stabilizes once he does. A single Stubborn Denial can take opponents off answers. Then, Tasigur recurs that very counterspell and locks up the game. As with our other cards, Tasigur's strength lies in his versatility; against faster decks, he's extra copies of Tarmogoyf.

Lightning Bolt Immunity

In the deck's early stages, I had to choose between Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Dark Confidant. I liked that Sprite protects Confidant from Lightning Bolt, albeit a turn later, and Bob's synergy with Disrupting Shoal. But without Confidant, my opponent's Lightning Bolt has zero superb targets. While Delvers would help against linear big-spell decks like Tron, I don't think they're worth giving 50% of the Modern field something significant to do with their burn spells. Adding Delvers also brings us too close to the badly-imitating-another-deck line.

Matchups and Sideboarding

I play a lot of Magic. In my one week with BUG Faeries, I’ve had the fortune of testing against many of Modern’s preeminent archetypes. This section looks at the ten highest represented decks from Modern Nexus’s current Top Decks page and gives a brief description of each matchup. Keep in mind that I tune my decks to beat Modern’s top tier, so while the numbers might look good here, my matchups against rogue strategies are sometimes awful. (For example, I got steamrolled by 4-Color Superfriends the other day.)

Summary Matchup Analysis

Favorable

Affinity:

Cranial PlatingPeppersmoke shines here. Bitterblossom pumps out blockers to trade with Signal Pest and Memnite, and Abrupt Decay is a maindeck out to Cranial Plating. Disrupting Shoal also counters a lot, and Tarmogoyf provides an enormous clock once we’ve disrupted them enough.

Game two, Snapcaster-Nature's Claim and our suite of discard effects make things even harder for Affinity. They count on Spellskite hassles to protect their threats, but we pack seven efficient answers for the Horror. Etched Champion can prove annoying on the ground, but as long as Plating doesn’t stick, Faerie Rogue tokens will get us there.

Jund:

Goyf and Bitterblossom compete for removal, and Jund’s own Goyfs hardly stick against Snap-Decay. Huntmaster and Tasigur are dangerous if we don’t get ahead first or meet them with Mana Leak. It’s usually managable to protect our threat past a vital removal spell with Shoal or Denial.

Game two, Deathmark makes a lot of noise from the sideboard. Spellskite + Dispel messes up Kolaghan's Command and helps out-resource Jund players. If they haven't seen Peppersmoke, their Confidants stay in, giving us another way to two-for-one them.

Burn:

Stubborn DenialI’ll admit, it looks bad on paper. Bitterblossom and Peppersmoke don’t “blow smoke” against Burn; they blow, period. But the combination of Tarmogoyf, Tasigur, Disrupting Shoal, Spellstutter Sprite, Stubborn Denial, and Abrupt Decay takes care of Burn in game one. We also don’t take much damage from lands if we’re careful.

Game two, things get really fun. Inquisition of Kozilek and Feed the Clan make Snapcaster Mage really strong, and plucking Bitterblossom and Peppersmoke from the mainboard accommodates Spellskite and Dispel.

Infect:

Here’s a deck that smashes conventional U/B Faeries, but can’t survive Shoal + Peppersmoke. Game one is a massacre, and things only get meaner with Nature's Claim, Spellskite, Deathmark, and discard.

U/R Twin:

Decay keeps Twin off the combo, and Peppersmoke blows them out. They draw too many lands and we end up out-carding them. Like Grixis Twin, they can't handle Bitterblossom. Unlike Grixis Twin, they also can’t handle Tarmogoyf.

Grixis Twin:

See U/R Twin. Even softer to Dispel.

Neutral

Amulet Bloom:

This matchup goes both ways. If we Shoal a crucial Amulet or Summer Bloom, and follow with pressure, things look really good. Spellstutter Sprite hard-counters Pacts, and Mana Leak on a Titan or Hive Mind means the game. But there’s very little to do against Cavern of Souls.

Game two, discard does a lot of work. As with Tron, we have to pressure fast and hope we can disrupt them long enough to win.

Merfolk:

Spreading SeasMerfolk can spell trouble with a grip of Spreading Seas, which does a swell job disrupting our mana. Otherwise, we’re the clear favorite, Shoaling or Decaying their Aether Vial and ripping up the board with our removal package. Trading Peppersmoke for Silvergill Adept, or Peppersmoke plus a Faerie for Lord of Atlantis, is also a blast.

Game two, Merfolk doesn’t really improve against us. Our discard pulls its weight, and Nature's Claim comes in to eat Aether Vial and Spreading Seas.

Abzan:

Unlike Jund, Abzan has Lingering Souls to get ahead on board. I’ve lost games to a couple of chained Souls, which makes me wonder if we want something like Engineered Explosives in the sideboard. (The BW Tokens matchup is close to unwinnable game one.)

Game two, we add Thoughtseize and Deathmark and try to ride Snap-Visions to a win. I remove Peppersmoke in this matchup, even though it trades up with a Lingering Souls token; my plan against that card is to draw Stubborn Denial on time. If that sounds bad, it’s because it is. The rest of the matchup plays out favorably; see Jund.

Unfavorable

RG Tron:

pyroclasmTron has traditionally posed a huge problem for midrange decks, and BUG Faeries is no exception. Thanks to Mana Leak, Snapcaster Mage, and Stubborn Denial, we have a better time preventing haymakers from resolving than Jund or Abzan do. Still, Pyroclasm chewing through our Faerie squad is no fun.
Game two, we try to trade Nature's Claim for Expedition Map and Thoughtseize away the nasty cards. It’s important not to board out threats in this matchup, since we need fast pressure. Not having Blood Moon stings.

Sideboard Choices

Deathmark: A criminally underplayed removal spell that kills Modern’s hardiest creatures. Deathmark profitably removes Tarmogoyf, Siege Rhino, Huntmaster of the Fells, Wilt-Leaf Liege, Scavenging Ooze, Ajani Pridemate, and weird stuff like Baneslayer Angel, Champion of the Parish, or Hooting Mandrills. Also nabs Noble Hierarch when we don’t open Peppersmoke.

DispelDispel: Shores up our spell-based matchups. Favorite targets: Terminate, Gifts Ungiven, Cryptic Command.

Feed the Clan: Makes it impossible for decks to reach us out. Players that see Bitterblossom and decide to put all their Lightning Bolts at our heads are in for a rude awakening. Crushing with Snapcaster Mage.

Nature's Claim: A Snapcaster-friendly Naturalize. Extremely versatile; comes in for Bogles, Pillow Fort, Tron, Affinity, etc. Since Tarmogoyf and Bitterblossom grow incrementally, four life is well worth the mana rebate. Unnecessary for tech like Vedaklen Shackles or Choke, since Abrupt Decay destroys those.

SpellskiteSpellskite: For decks that trade their cards for damage, such as Burn and Small Zoo. Terrific against strategies that target their own permanents like Bogles and Infect. Blocks Etched Champion in Affinity and slows Twin combo way down. Combines with Dispel and Stubborn Denial to seriously disrupt Kolaghan's Command decks. Also comes in against removal-heavy control strategies like Jeskai.

Thoughtseize: A proactive answer to hand-sculpting decks like Ad Nauseam and Tron. Tears synergy decks apart. Strong include in aggro matchups since it trades with a threat, especially on the play; on the draw, I prefer Disrupting Shoal.

Inquisition of Kozilek: Better than Thoughtseize with life on the line (against Burn, Zoo, Hatebears, etc.). Still comes in against combo decks. I prefer to play exclusively tempo-positive interaction in game one and board into discard effects.

Thank You For Smoking

After so much fiddling with Blood Moon decks, it feels amazing to cast Disrupting Shoal again. I’ve yet to get my hands on an actual playset of Bitterblossom, so I’ll probably take something with Delvers to the Mana Deprived Super Series this weekend. In the meantime, I encourage interested readers to sleeve up BUG Faeries, especially those who question my card choices. For me, Modern’s at its most exciting when it pushes deckbuilders out of their comfort zone. Lord knows I spend enough time pushing Tarmogoyf out of his.

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

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Insider: Adventures in Vending – Knowing Your Audience

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If there were a no- or low-context way to become happy and wealthy, everybody would pursue this model and there would be no sadness or poverty. When it comes to making sound financial decisions, following the examples of other successful people is often wise, but the only way to thrive under your own unique conditions is to carve your own unique path.

The financial side of Magic represents a lot of different things, depending on who you ask. For a Standard player right now, the cost of cards might be a necessary evil to enjoy their hobby. For a store owner, it's how they pay their rent.

The smaller your scope for Magic finance, the less you care about managing your collection and who you sell cards to---if you sell them at all. The wider that scope gets, the more legwork you have to do towards understanding your audience.

Misjudging Your Customer Base

For a vendor or a store owner, your local player base should heavily inform the way you utilize your display space and run your tournaments.

Recently I vended for a tournament that was in many respects a disaster for the store owner. The event was a 2K Legacy Elite IQ. The store regularly holds Legacy IQs with 30-ish people in attendance, so with a little promotion they thought they'd try their hand at running a larger event.

The problem was that the regular IQs already drew most of the Legacy players in the area. A prize pool of $2,000 with the entry fee they charged would require 67 players to break even on the event. Attendance was 34 players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dismal Failure

The idea of trying to hold a larger event is appealing. The store has the space for more players, and indeed has supported 80+ players playing in the store on more than one occasion.

The problem was that finding enough people to play Legacy to break even on a 2K is no easy task. At this point in Magic history, and given the player base in the Twin Cities area, a Modern or Standard tournament would have been much safer bets.

The store had a Legacy crowd they could count on, but only so many people could be reasonably expected to show up.

I imagine the players in attendance were happy to play in such a high-EV event, but a store can only hold so many events at that steep of a loss.

Another example of an unsuccessful event in my area was when a store tried to hold its first-ever full-proxy Vintage event. The idea isn't bad in theory. Vintage is sweet, and full-proxy allows a low barrier to entry for players.

The store ran into problems when it decided to give away a Tropical Island, with little knowledge of the projected attendance. The manager told me his Legacy crowd had been begging for Vintage, but he didn't have a clear answer when I asked him what percentage had expressed interest.

I believe that eight people showed up for the event, which is not an optimal number for a dual land giveaway.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tropical Island

Again, those in attendance were quite happy, but gauging interest is often going to involve more legwork than asking around---particularly if you're going to promise a specific prize.

Some Positive Advice

The question of tournament structure and prize support for the most part only applies to store owners. Vendors have slightly different considerations. Expected turnout is definitely a factor, for a number of reasons, but more than that a vendor wants to understand the purchasing behavior of specific tournament crowds.

For example, when we vended for that Legacy 2K, we weren't expecting a huge crowd and we knew Legacy players wouldn't spend much time or money at the booth.

We wanted to highlight any cool foils we had in the case, but that's not something we deal in heavily. We didn't go too deep on the Standard display, and as such we didn't end up using the space we had much differently than at any other event.

As for changing things up, we're going to have to make some decisions for the Oath of the Gatewatch prerelease. For Battle for Zendikar we vended at two different stores, but for Oath we'll be working with three.

Splitting our inventory down the middle wasn't too difficult, but three locations is going to stretch an operation our size extremely thin if we don't implement a more sophisticated method.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Strategic Planning

One of the three stores we've worked with regularly in the past, selling Standard cards and a decent amount of Modern. Another location we've worked with less frequently, which features a similar breakdown of sales.

The third location we've vended for exactly once. Here we noted players were most interested in Modern cards, as that store doesn't feature much Modern inventory.

When vending, your bread and butter is going to be trade-ins. This is why you see vendors offer bonuses on trade-in value. It allows you to increase the value of your inventory without spending any of your cash on hand.

The less attractive your inventory, the more pressure put on your bankroll. Some people will request cash for their cards no matter what, but you want to be able to capitalize on any potential trade-in.

In addition, some people will only sell cards to obtain something else in your case that catches their eye. For many players, the only way to justify selling cards at buylist is by trading into something that would otherwise be difficult to acquire.

The major concession we're making in order to split our inventory is to bring the least stuff to our most frequent store partner. We see the players there all the time, so we can expect a second shot at most of the transactions we miss out on employing this method.

There are some players who only come out for prereleases, but for the last couple sets we haven't had very busy events at this store. For these reasons, leaving too many valuable case items at this location would be a poor use of our assets.

Our Modern collection is nowhere close to stocking three locations at once, but splitting between two won't be difficult. Anything we have in excess can be split easily, with cards in short supply going to our newest partner store, and any overflow going to our oldest.

It's an easy system to understand, but one that's important to establish conscientiously. These are the decisions you'll have to make if you decide to expand your finance game to a larger physical audience.

~

The bottom line is, as a retailer of Magic in any capacity, you need to understand your audience as much as your business itself.

The goal of any business operation is growth, and in order to properly grow you need to appeal to your audience. The customer isn't always right, but it is always right to cater to them---that's who ultimately determines how much revenue is coming your way.

Thanks for reading,

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: GP Kobe and the Standard Metagame

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A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…

Okay, okay, so it wasn’t that long ago, it was two weekends ago. Alright, it wasn’t that far away either, only half a world (from here in America). We're talking, of course, about Grand Prix Kobe.

Sometimes if a Grand Prix isn’t close to you, it does seem like it's in a galaxy far, far away. Other countries have different metas and bring out different aspects of every format. Occasionally, there will be some players behind the pace, while others will be forging ahead.

We frequently see the Japanese metagame pushing the envelope at every opportunity, and GP Kobe was no different.

Dissecting the Top 8 and looking at some other results, we see the metagame moving in an interesting direction. Players are starting to work with Temur, tokens and giant Eldrazi.

Standard is interesting right now, with many archetypes available and still more territory to explore. Let’s look at a snapshot of the meta from Japan and discuss what to expect moving forward.

Dark Temur

Dark Temur by Kaiyin Wang (14th place at GP Kobe)

Creatures

4 Deathmist Raptor
4 Den Protector
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
2 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Dragonlord Atarka

Spells

2 Exert Influence
4 Kolaghan's Command
2 Fiery Impulse
2 Murderous Cut
3 Kiora, Master of the Depths
3 Sarkhan Unbroken

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
1 Windswept Heath
2 Opulent Palace
2 Sunken Hollow
1 Cinder Glade
1 Frontier Bivouac
1 Lumbering Falls
1 Prairie Stream
1 Smoldering Marsh
3 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Mountain
1 Island

Sideboard

3 Radiant Flames
3 Disdainful Stroke
2 Negate
1 Crux of Fate
1 Dragonlord Silumgar
1 Infinite Obliteration
1 Rending Volley
1 Sultai Charm
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Virulent Plague

First up, we have Dark Temur, or Temur Black. This deck fills the same role as the slower Abzan decks but it utilizes completely different cards to achieve its goals.

We’ve seen the Deathmist Raptor plus Den Protector package slotted into any and every archetype. That trend should continue as long as these cards are legal in Standard.

Wizards frequently gives us recursive threats like Bloodsoaked Champion or Bloodghast that can't block. Less common are the Deathmist Raptors of the multiverse, which is why these cards have traditionally appeared in aggressive decks.

For a control deck to utilize this kind of card, it needs to be able to block to help stabilize. Deathmist blocks and does a damn fine job at that, killing almost everything it tussles with. It's the ultimate control card because it generates card advantage while dragging the game out.

I also like how Temur can enable the combo with Rattleclaw Mystic. As Standard’s premier mana accelerator, Mystic has been adopted a lot less than I expected. Not only does it ramp you to four mana a turn early, it also helps with all the crazy multi-color shenanigans players are getting into these days.

In addition to the clear-cut power of the megamorphs, this deck also gains two underappreciated planeswalkers. Both Kiora, Master of the Depths and Sarkhan Unbroken are very powerful cards in the abstract, but they haven't found much of a home yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kiora, Master of the Depths

In my set review for Battle for Zendikar (BFZ), I wrote about the specific combination of Rattleclaw Mystic and Kiora, and how similar it was to Garruk Wildspeaker. This deck showcases the power of that sequence. There are only a couple cheap spells you can play after untapping two mana sources like that, but it will cast most of the creature base.

Sarkhan is also super powerful if you can cast him. Between making threats and drawing extra cards, there are few situations he won't be useful.

This archetype is relatively unexplored and there is still room for more innovation. Being able to play so many colors opens up your deck to lots of possibilities.

Bring to Light comes to mind as a possible area of exploration. That card seems perfectly suited for this deck. The only setback is that it competes with the other five-mana spells.

Eldrazi Ramp

Another strategy players are exploring is ramp. We haven’t seen a good ramp strategy in a while, but when giant monsters with epic powers like the Eldrazi get printed, players will try to harness that power.

Here's the latest example of a player finding success with this strategy.

G/u Eldrazi by Pavel Matousek (6th place at GP Kobe)

Creatures

2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
4 Leaf Gilder
4 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Spells

4 Nissa's Renewal
3 Nissa's Pilgrimage
4 Part the Waterveil
4 Explosive Vegetation
2 Dig Through Time
2 Kiora, Master of the Depths
4 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Lands

3 Windswept Heath
4 Lumbering Falls
1 Prairie Stream
4 Shrine of the Forsaken Gods
8 Forest
3 Island

Sideboard

1 Sanctum of Ugin
3 Dispel
4 Jaddi Offshoot
4 Winds of Qal Sisma
1 Void Winnower
2 Conduit of Ruin

If this deck looks familiar that's because it’s based on a deck from a couple years ago called Turbo Land. Many times, we think of blue and green as a tempo combination, but the other way it can play out is in a ramp strategy such as this.

The most unique contribution by blue is Part the Waterveil, which is particularly well suited to the strategy. It's not hard to get to nine mana in a dedicated ramp deck, which lets you awaken a 6/6 to go along with your extra turn.

The killer top end of Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger plus Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is a potent end game to ramp to. Compared to the R/G version, this one is more capable of "going off," by chaining a few extra turns while you have planeswalkers active or Ulamog gobbling up the opponent's library.

The major card missing from this build is Hangarback Walker. Many other ramp players are using the infamous artifact creature to full effect, but it appears Matousek chose to cut it for other options.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker

To a certain extent, the Standard meta is warped around Hangarback. And if it weren't for Silkwrap (an uncommon pushing $3), this effect could be much more pronounced. If you don’t have your Hangarbacks yet, I recommend getting them soon because its power level isn’t going down anytime soon and it's good in other formats as well.

Look out for this deck at your next event. As with most ramp decks, when the pieces come together in the right order it's tough to beat. The adage goes, if you build it, they will come. Likewise, if you print an Eldrazi, players will play it.

B/W Warriors

The most common way to beat a ramp deck is to end the game before they get a chance to cast their huge, expensive spells. Luckily, GP Kobe has you covered on that angle as well with B/W Warriors.

B/W Warriors by Joe Soh (2nd place at GP Kobe)

Creatures

4 Bloodsoaked Champion
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
4 Chief of the Edge
4 Blood-Chin Rager
4 Mardu Woe-Reaper
4 Mardu Strike Leader
2 Wasteland Strangler

Spells

3 Valorous Stance
3 Stasis Snare
4 Silkwrap
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Flooded Strand
4 Caves of Koilos
2 Shambling Vent
1 Sunken Hollow
1 Prairie Stream
1 Windswept Heath
4 Plains
3 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Wasteland Strangler
1 Stasis Snare
1 Valorous Stance
2 Ultimate Price
2 Transgress the Mind
2 Secure the Wastes
1 Negate
3 Disdainful Stroke
2 Mastery of the Unseen

As an aggro enthusiast, I was excited to see this deck perform well. There are so many Savannah Lions in Standard and I feel someone should be taking the opportunity to beat down with them.

Warriors have the huge benefit of a two-mana lord. Most lords cost three and provide additional abilities, but in Constructed mana efficiency will usually be more relevant. We’ve seen this with Lord of Atlantis in Modern and Legacy.

Chief of the Edge is not as powerful as the merfolk lord, but it does pair great with other aggressive creatures. The sequence of any one-drop into Chief allows you to start attacking for three on turn two. Instead, if you curve a one-drop into two more on turn two, a follow-up Chief will let you attack for nine damage! This deck can consistently present lethal damage on turn four or five with lines like these.

The removal suite is also great. Valorous Stance, Silkwrap and Stasis Snare are all premium removal spells, and the deck also makes full use of the powerful Wasteland Strangler. That card is pretty insane when turned on, and explains the inclusion of Stasis Snare over Ruinous Path, which I otherwise prefer.

Esper Tokens

Our next deck chooses many of the same cards, but is built with a more midrange strategy in mind.

Esper Tokens by Akihiro Ookawa (7th place at GP Kobe)

Creatures

4 Hangarback Walker
4 Knight of the White Orchid
3 Wingmate Roc

Spells

2 Painful Truths
1 Ruinous Path
3 Murderous Cut
3 Secure the Wastes
1 Ultimate Price
2 Utter End
4 Silkwrap
4 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Ob Nixilis Reignited

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Polluted Delta
2 Prairie Stream
1 Scoured Barrens
4 Shambling Vent
3 Caves of Koilos
1 Sunken Hollow
3 Swamp
4 Plains

Sideboard

1 Ultimate Price
1 Dragonlord Silumgar
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Dispel
1 Negate
3 Duress
1 End Hostilities
1 Languish
3 Arashin Cleric

Esper Tokens is another deck based off of an older strategy. B/W Tokens was a huge part of the Lorwyn Standard metagame, and stampeded through tournaments shortly after it was first created.

That deck used Bitterblossom to build up an advantage over the course of the game. Today we don't have the luxury of such a ridiculous card advantage and tempo engine, but Esper Tokens can put together multiple cards to get the job done.

The goal is to fetch up an extra land with Knight of the White Orchid, make the opponent spend extra resources to deal with Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, and finish off with a two-for-one special in a raided Wingmate Roc. All this incidental card advantage means Esper Tokens can grind with the best of them.

Since it’s in the same colors as the Warrior deck, it also has access to the same amazing removal spells. In many games you can do a solid Abzan Control impression and kill all their stuff.

Combining Tokens & Warriors

My own angle of attack on the current meta is a pinch of warriors combined with a dash of tokens. Take a look.

B/W Aggro by Mike Lanigan

Creatures

4 Bloodsoaked Champion
3 Dragon Hunter
3 Mardu Woe-Reaper
4 Chief of the Edge
4 Hangarback Walker
3 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
3 Drana, Liberator of Malakir

Spells

2 Duress
3 Silkwrap
3 Ruinous Path
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Lands

4 Caves of Koilos
4 Shambling Vent
3 Scoured Barrens
7 Plains
6 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Duress
1 Silkwrap
1 Reave Soul
2 Hallowed Moonlight
1 Stasis Snare
2 Minister of Pain
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
2 Utter End
2 Gilt-Leaf Winnower

This deck has been great for me so far this season. It combines the aggressive lines of the Warrior strategy with the midrange power of Esper Tokens, making for a tough ship to destroy. Sticking to the Star Wars analogy, this deck is like the Millennium Falcon. It’s extremely maneuverable and can get you out of almost every situation. Just don’t get caught in Silumgar, the Drifting Death’s tractor beam and you’ll be okay.

There's one card in my list that's absent from the others. Drana, Liberator of Malakir has gone unnoticed for some time but she packs a huge punch.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drana, Liberator of Malakir

The reason she didn’t see play initially is because Mantis Rider was all over the format. With a wide-open meta of late, players are exploring lots of new strategies and Jeskai Black has taken a back seat. Obviously Drana still matches up poorly against Mantis Rider and you're bound to run up against it eventually, but that's what removal spells are for.

Even connecting once with Drana and pumping your team can be enough to sway the game in your favor. If she sticks around for multiple turns, your likelihood to win rises dramatically. In addition, she makes for an epic pairing with Hangarback Walker.

The idea behind this deck was initially to make the best Hangarback deck. I aimed to do that with Drana but also Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit. These two cards add additional counters to your Walker with little effort. Additionally, I have Gideon, Ally of Zendikar’s emblem to pump a swarm of thopter tokens and swing in for the kill.

~

The deck works well, but so do all of the other decks mentioned here today. GP Kobe has shown us some of the possibilities in Standard but space is vast and there are still more areas to explore.

Everything is awesome. I love my deck, Standard is super fun, and we’re getting a new Star Wars movie in a few short weeks.

I also have the opportunity to attend the TCG Player Maxpoint Championship this weekend in Wisconsin. If you’re at the event, come say hello. Otherwise, tune in next week when I'll report how I did in the tournament.

Until then,
Unleash the B/W Aggro Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Bannings: Past and Future

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Recently, the public has been reminded that Modern exists. This has naturally reignited discussion about bannings. GP Pittsburgh featured a lot of fair, powerful decks battling for fame and glory. This was generally fun, exciting, and interesting. GP Pittsburgh also featured Amulet Bloom. This was controversial, upsetting, and bordering on taboo. Parents were covering their children’s eyes, commentators were sweating in their boots, and Twitch chat was spamming panicBasket. Major news networks were blasting opinions and misinformation under false labels of “fact”, and gas prices nearly tripled. Today, I plan on saving the world. Let’s get some things straight. Let’s talk about the bannings.

Ban HammerIn March of 2005, two things were happening: I was about to embark on the great voyage known as High School, and Affinity was dominating Standard. Arcbound Ravager, Disciple of the Vault, and the artifact lands were stealing lollipops from children left and right, and Wizards knew something had to be done. Kamigawa Block was a step down from Mirrodin power-wise, as Wizards realized power creep was getting dangerously high, but this did nothing to stem the metallic tide. After the rotation of Onslaught block, Affinity’s future was secure, and Wizards pulled the trigger, obliterating the archetype in one fell swoop. Some have said that it’s as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.

Suddenly Silenced

While bannings were not uncommon before Affinity, the events of early 2005 brought with them some valuable lessons. Players now had a clear example of a completely “broken” metagame and many quit the game for good. Wizards was hit where it hurts the most (their wallets), and made sure to take drastic steps to prevent future sets from causing the same issues. The dangers were now known, the variables clear. The lesson had been learned.

Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Well, apparently not. In this section I will be quoting heavily from Aaron Forsythe’s B&R announcement from June 20, 2011 (also known as Judgement Day).

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"Caw-Blade, Ben Stark (1st, Pro Tour Paris)"

Creatures

4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Squadron Hawk

Planeswalkers

3 Gideon Jura
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Instants

4 Spell Pierce
3 Mana Leak
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Deprive

Sorceries

4 Day of Judgment
4 Preordain

Artifacts

1 Sword of Feast and Famine
1 Sylvok Lifestaff

Land

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Tectonic Edge
1 Misty Rainforest
4 Plains
5 Island

Sideboard

3 Ratchet Bomb
4 Oust
2 Baneslayer Angel
2 Divine Offering
2 Flashfreeze
1 Sword of Body and Mind
1 Negate

Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic combined to form a monster that was just as oppressive, but much more deceptive, than 2005 Affinity. To quote Aaron Forsythe:

“We haven't seen cards dominate the field like this, possibly ever. Even in the heyday of Affinity (the last deck to require such drastic measures in Standard), we weren't seeing anything like this level of homogeneity. When you realize that both cards, besides being dominant in Standard, are top tier in Constructed formats of all sizes up to and including Legacy (and even Vintage for Jace), it becomes harder and harder to argue that the cards are anything but flat-out too powerful.”

Another quote, and then some discussion:

“I have seen many arguments flying around the Internet that nothing needs to be banned, as the format is very interactive and skill-testing right now…As for interactivity, when you lose to Jace / Stoneforge decks, you still feel like you're playing Magic: you cast your creatures, attack and block, yet, if your opponent plays well enough, eventually fall under an avalanche of card advantage and efficient tutoring. Game play like that is a far cry from past Standard environments containing ban-worthy cards, wherein you might get decked by a Tolarian Academy–fueled Stroke of Genius on turn three, or die from 20 on turn four to a combination of Arcbound Ravager, Disciple of the Vault, and Cranial Plating…Those games felt more random and less satisfying, and the outcry to do something about it was loud and clear.”

Maybe I’m just a nostalgic historian, but I find these quotes EXTREMELY interesting. A lot of times, we look at an archetype, or individual card, and call it “broken” without giving any thought to context or further definition. Define “broken”! ... I’ll wait.

.

.

.

Not so easy, right? To be “oppressive” or “ban-worthy”, we absolutely have to evaluate context. 32 copies of Goblin Guide in the Top 8 of a Pro Tour or Grand Prix means absolutely nothing if everyone plays Kor Firewalker the next week.Kor Firewalker But hold on, because right there lines are already getting blurred (right Robin Thicke?). If Goblin Guide IS so powerful that everyone has to play Kor Firewalker just to stand a chance, then a case can be made for Guide being “oppressive” and ban discussion can be had. Likewise, if a combo deck is so powerful that the only way to disrupt it is through Thoughtseize, then a case can be made for that deck to be oppressive, as it places unhealthy pressure on other decks in the format to play Thoughtseize just to compete.

We’ll talk about Amulet Bloom specifically at the end of the article, but first I wanted to give a little history of bannings in Modern, using Wizards' own words to provide context to these events. This could easily get out of control (meaning word count) as every B&R announcement has months of tournament results, back and forth metagame shifts, and deck specific details to discuss, but we’ll just hit the main points here. If this disappoints you, let me know and I’ll start my novel.

August 2011 – Initial Modern Ban List

Announcement Article: A Modern Proposal
Announcement ArticleWelcome to the Modern World

Banned: Ancestral Vision, Ancient Den, Bitterblossom, Chrome Mox, Dark Depths, Dread Return, Glimpse of Nature, Golgari Grave-Troll, Great Furnace, Hypergenesis, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Mental Misstep, Seat of the Synod, Sensei's Divining Top, Skullclamp, Stoneforge Mystic, Sword of the Meek, Tree of Tales, Umezawa's Jitte, Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and Vault of Whispers

"We used two criteria to guide us in choosing what cards to ban. First, we have a rule of thumb about Legacy that we don't like consistent turn-two combination decks, but that turn-three combination decks are okay. We modified that rule for Modern by adding a turn to each side: we are going to allow turn-four combination decks, but not decks that consistently win the game on turn three."    -Tom LaPille

I highly suggest reading both articles, as Tom LaPille gives a card by card breakdown of why each card is banned, which is highly illuminating and can give us insight into Wizards view on what makes a card or archetype “ban-worthy” or not. We can LITERALLY anticipate Wizards’ position on format health by reviewing the decisions they have made in the past. It’s almost as if there’s evidence, and all we have to do is look at it...!

September 2011 – Post Pro Tour Philadelphia

Announcement ArticleExplanation of September 2011 B&R Changes

Banned: Blazing Shoal, Cloudpost, Green Sun's Zenith, Ponder, Preordain, Rite of Flame

“Before Pro Tour Philadelphia, the DCI's stated guideline for the Modern format was to avoid having decks that consistently win the game on turn three. With the results of the Pro Tour in, we are tweaking that goal to not having top-tier decks that consistently win on turn three (or earlier). We also have the goal of maintaining a diverse format.” -Erik Lauer

Pro Tour Philadelphia basically featured a “best of the rest” combo field filled with all the broken cards that Wizards missed on their first pass. Infect with Blazing Shoal and 12Post were the worst offenders,Blazing Shoal but Wizards also showed they were interested in cultivating diversity by banning the best blue cantrips and green tutoring (as every blue deck “had” to play Ponder/Preordain and every green deck “had” to play Green Sun's Zenith). The language in this announcement is very important. Erik Lauer is careful to point out that they are committed to restricting “top-tier” decks from winning on Turn 3 (or earlier) "consistently".

I believe this decision was made for two reasons. First, they don’t want to discourage newer players from acquiring a “hot new deck” that is popping up in Modern. Making potential customers feel wary of a looming banning makes them wary of reaching into their pockets, which is something every company wants to avoid. Second, they establish a benchmark for players to (hopefully) pay attention to when new decks do break out. Were a hot new deck like, say, Grishoalbrand or Lantern Control to arise, Wizards would know citizens wouldn’t cry for immediate bannings, as it takes more than one high-profile event to make a deck “top tier”. See what I’m getting at here? Amulet Bloom taking second at one Pro Tour doesn’t by itself warrant a banning, or even ban discussion. More data is needed.

December 2011 – Post Worlds

Announcement ArticleExplanation of December 2011 B&R Changes

Banned: Punishing Fire, Wild Nacatl

“After looking at the results of the Magic World Championships, the DCI is keeping the goal of not having top-tier decks that frequently win on turn three (or earlier). This was not an issue with either of the newly banned cards. We also have the goal of maintaining a diverse format. While there were aggressive decks, control decks, attrition decks, and combination decks that succeeded, the diversity was not ideal. In particular, the heavy majority of all aggressive decks were "Zoo" decks. We looked at why other aggressive decks were not played, and after our analysis decided to ban two cards.”            -Erik Lauer

Here we see two bannings based entirely on promoting diversity. Punishing Fire literally punished all creatures with less than three toughness, which made Wild Nacatl the universal option for decks looking to attack.

January 2013 – Post Jund Everywhere

Announcement ArticleJanuary 28, 2013 DCI Banned & Restricted List Announcement

Banned: Bloodbraid Elf, Seething Song

“While the rest of the format is quite diverse, the dominance of Jund is making it less so overall. The DCI looked to ban a card. We wanted a card that top players consistently played four copies of in Jund, but ideally was less played in other top Modern decks. That would give the best chance of creating a more balanced metagame. The card that best fits our criteria is Bloodbraid Elf.”

”Looking at the results of games, turn-three wins are frequent for Storm, contrary to the DCI's stated goals for the format. The DCI looked for a card that was very important to the turn-three wins but not one of the cards that make this deck unique. We decided Seething Song is the best choice. Even with no other mana acceleration, one can cast Seething Song on turn three and it gives a net acceleration of +2 mana. While there are other options for fast mana, none appear as efficient and reliable on turn three as Seething Song.”      -Erik Lauer

2012 was relatively quiet, though a case could be made for nerfing Jund earlier. The exact events are listed in the article, but a Pro Tour and four consecutive Grand Prix passed where Jund was over-represented and winning in the finals of each. Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle was unbanned in October, but other than that, 2012 was all Jund, all the time. So here we see again Wizards' commitment to cultivating a Modern format that is diverse, while also restricting Turn 3 kills. Again, the language here is important, as Wizards realizes it's unfeasible (and pretty heavy-handed) to nerf every deck that is capable of winning on Turn 3, but there is a measurable point of both representation and consistency at which discussion can begin.

May 2013 – Post Pro Tour Return to Ravnica

--and Brian Kibler F6’ing on Camera (jump to 14:00)--

Announcement ArticleMay 3, 2013, DCI Banned & Restricted List Announcement

Banned: Second Sunrise

“Modern tournaments have recently been diverse, with no dominant deck. However, large tournaments have had a problem with the Eggs deck, causing rounds to take significantly longer… In a large tournament, such as a Grand Prix, when time for the round expires, players are given five additional turns to complete their game. Usually, this takes a few minutes to conclude the rest of the games. However, a player playing Eggs might have a fifteen-minute turn during the additional turns, delaying the start of the next round by ten minutes or more (beyond the next-longest match). Over the course of a day, this can mean an extra hour of waiting for everyone else in the tournament.”    -Erik Lauer

Second SunriseContrary to popular belief, a staple from Eggs WAS NOT banned because the deck was “unfun”, “non-interactive”, or “too powerful”. Eggs was banned for the exact reason Erik Lauer said in the above quote: rounds were taking too long, and the turnover time in between rounds was causing issues at large events. Public perception and on-camera awkward commentary surely contributed, but to a much smaller extent than most people would like to believe. This is part of the reason why Sensei's Divining Top is banned in Modern (and some have said is at risk of being banned sometime soon in Legacy), as each Top activation could take a minute or more, which adds up over the course of the round and contributes to a large number of draws and prolonged post-time turns (looking straight at you Miracles!)

Aside: Without getting too philosophical, in this digital age of Facebook and Twitter where individuals can throw their opinions out to mass audiences as much as they’d like, we’d like to believe that our individual opinions are seen as important and interesting to others. Wizards of the Coast cares much more about issues at their events and what their Tournament Organizers have to say about event times than what 3,000 people in Twitch chat might group-think. That’s not to say that they don’t care about public perception, which is in fact most important, just that one Twitch chat mega-discussion on the weekend isn’t enough to sway Wizards' minds like we think it is.

February 2014 – Jund is Back

Annoucement ArticleFebruary 3, 2014, DCI Banned & Restricted List Announcement

Banned: Deathrite Shaman
Unbanned: Wild Nacatl and Bitterblossom

“Deathrite Shaman, however, is powerful at all stages of the game. Having a strong attrition-based deck as a large portion of the metagame makes it difficult for decks that are based on synergies between cards instead of individually powerful cards. We believe that removing Deathrite Shaman from the format will leave more room for future innovation.     -Erik Lauer

I’m surprised at the language in the B&R announcement. Prior to re-reading this I was under the impression that Deathrite Shaman was banned for other reasons. Erik states that Deathrite Shaman made it too easy for attrition strategies (read: Jund in the BGR and BGRW forms) to disrupt synergy based decks.Deathrite Shaman This is entirely true, but Deathrite Shaman also had other significant effects on the format. First, it allowed “fair” decks a way to consistently fight graveyard-based strategies. Decks without card filtering/tutoring (read: non-blue decks) often have difficulty finding sideboard cards quickly in post-board games, and Deathrite Shaman effectively allowed attrition decks 4+ ways to interact with decks that use the graveyard, starting on Turn 1. In conjunction with numerous discard spells, Jund was able to reliably and easily disrupt synergy-based decks.

Second, Deathrite Shaman was far and away the best mana accelerator available, which restricted diversity and forced basically every deck in those colors to include it. With this in mind, I’m wary of projecting my own opinions onto Wizards' decisions, as we’ve been careful not to do that up to this point. My reasoning is in line with their past decisions, but I’m cognizant of the risk of taking away “evidence” of Wizards' position when they haven’t explicitly stated so. Perhaps they didn’t feel Deathrite Shaman was detrimental to format diversity? Reading their announcement carefully definitely suggests that their main focus was reducing the power of attrition decks, Deathrite Shaman’s individual power level, and promoting synergy-based format innovation.

January 2015 – Post Modern Delver

Announcement Article: January 19, 2015, Banned and Restricted Announcement

Banned: Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Birthing Pod
Unbanned: Golgari Grave-Troll

“Sometimes, a card-drawing card can be too efficient. The decks that draw cards so efficiently push out many other decks, limiting the field to the strong decks that best use those card drawers and decks that don't play in interactive games with those strong decks. In that case, the best option might be to ban the overly efficient card drawer.”  -WoTC (shady!)

These bans were relatively straightforward; Birthing Pod had been pushing out the other creature decks in the format and winning nearly every GP, and Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time proved that delve truly is busted and made the blue decks way too powerful. Golgari Grave-Troll’s unbanning came with some language that reinforces the idea that Wizards is interested in diversity, as long as it doesn’t lead to oppression.

What About Amulet?

So, should Amulet Bloom be banned? I can only give my opinion, and I hope I’ve given you the tools to formulate your own. Amulet Bloom definitely classifies as “non-interactive”, but I think we’ve clearly proven that this isn’t an attribute Wizards considers when evaluating bans in Modern.amulet When Amulet Bloom wins, it doesn’t take too long to go through the motions. It takes some time to search and navigate the triggers of Primeval Titan and Amulet of Vigor, but no more so than other decks like Storm or Ad Nauseum. It is capable of Turn 3 wins, and can win on Turn 2 a surprising number of times, which throws up a strong red flag. I don’t have data on consistency of kill, and those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt as they can vary week to week and event to event based on individual deck composition and opposing hate.

So far, we haven’t seen Amulet Bloom take down a major event. It came close in the hands of Justin Cohen, falling to Splinter Twin in the finals of Pro Tour Fate Reforged, but the deck can hardly be classified as “Tier 1” on that single finish alone. Based on metagame information its representation is getting there, but I disagree about this status. Whether it’s consistency, difficulty to pilot, or some other factor, the deck has not been prevalent at the top tables, which makes any argument for banning it pretty thin.

When Amulet wins, it wins decisively, and it can feel pretty “unfair” when the Amulet player is chaining Tolaria West for Summoner's Pact and casting Primeval Titan with a Cavern of Souls AND Pact of Negation backup, but none of that is particularly unfair. Yes, Turn 2 kills are unfair. However, given Wizards' past positions until Amulet starts winning events consistently, or killing on Turn 2 with regularity, I don’t expect we’ll see a banning. And I don’t think it deserves one either. This coming from a player that despises losing to Amulet Bloom.

Thanks for reading! I’d love to hear your opinions/feedback! Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, and I’ll see you next week!

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Insider: [MTGO] Short Selling, Part 3 – Short-Term Short Sales

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Short selling may be a novel way to speculate on MTGO, but what remains the same is the possibility to opt for short-term flips or long-term investments. Two weeks ago I discussed the option of long-term short sale speculation; today I'll focus on the short-term possibilities.

In the short term, short sales are enabled by the same context as elsewhere---full set speculation, made by you or someone else.

Short-term short sales basically amount to quick flips. Sell, wait a few days or up to two weeks max, and buy back.

The idea behind a short-term short sale is to react to a sudden and exaggerated price spike. As soon as the price returns to its baseline, you want to close the position. If it hasn't come down after two weeks, you may have lost your bet, or you might be on board for the long run.

Price spikes occur fairly frequently on MTGO and prices come down just as fast as they went up. We often say it's a good move to sell into the hype, because after prices have spiked unreasonably, a wave of selling off is almost inevitable.

If such spikes can help traditional speculators, they can do likewise for short sellers.

Taking Advantage of Spikes, in a Different Way

With traditional speculation, anticipating spikes early is a great way to generate extra Tix in a short amount of time. Short selling during these spikes is a much more forgiving approach that can generate an equal amount of Tix in the same short period.

Forgiving, because you don't need to react right at the moment the card in question goes under the camera. There's no hustle to purchase before the spike hits, since you already own copies of the card (or are planning to borrow them).

All the short seller needs to concern themselves with during the spike is when to sell. The key to short sale quick flips is to wait for the buying price to be as high as possible in reaction to the spike, which may take a few hours to a few days.

The good news here is you can check Grand Prix or Pro Tour results after the event is done, or even the next day, and probably not miss the selling window.

Price spikes often occur without a real justification. One single Daily Event result, one tweet, or one post from a popular pro are enough to generate hype around a particular card. You missed the tweet and the subsequent spike? No worry, you can probably short sell the card now, and the price is likely to come back to its base level very soon.

Last year, from a stable floor around 5.5 Tix, Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver jumped to 9 and then 11.5 Tix in late August/early September and fell back to 8.5 Tix, a 25% loss. In the hype surrounding Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir (KTK), Ashiok again spiked to 12.1 Tix but sharply dropped to 7.5 Tix for failing to show up in enough top decks.

In both situations Ashiok's price rose sharply with no concrete support. The subsequent drops of almost 30% could have been anticipated and turned into profit in the form of quick flip short sales.

This is similar to the situation I exploited with Jace, Vryn's Prodigy earlier this October. From a farily stable 32 Tix baseline, Jace rose in a couple of days to 45 Tix and became a profitable short sale opportunity.

Earlier, on my main account, I short-sold 19 copies of Monastery Mentor in the wake of the little spike triggered by Legacy GP Lille. I sold my copies a little bit late at an average of 9.8 Tix per copy.

The peak was clearly due to a sole high finish at the GP, insufficient to sustain an 11 Tix price for more than a week or two. In addition, Modern Masters 2015 (MM2) drafts were about to stop, signaling a return for drafters to Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF) that would inject more FRF cards in the system.

I bought my Mentors back at 8.3 Tix with a little extra profit while waiting for FRF sets to gain value.

With my "100 Tix, 1 Year" project I also executed some of these quick flip short sales. As far as I know, these were the very first examples of short-sold Magic cards on MTGO.

I short-sold four different positions and was able to make a profit on three, +2.65 Tix with Jeskai Ascendancy, +0.42 Tix with Narset, Enlightened Master and +4.87 Tix with Bloodsoaked Champion. I lost -0.09 Tix on Surrak Dragonclaw, a negligible dent in the overall profits.

The common denominator to all these short sales was to sell in reaction to an unusually high price spike. In each case I closed the position and rebought after a few days or weeks, when prices returned as close as possible to their previous level.

As you can see, I could have waited a little bit longer for Bloodsoaked Champion. Its price eventually dropped farther to 0.5 Tix prior to Origins (ORI) release events. But from the optic of a short-term flip, two weeks had already passed and as the price was starting to rise again, I simply wanted to exit the position.

You may also have noticed that all these transactions included fees. To perform these short sales I had to borrow these cards from my main account (remember, I had just bought 50 sets of Khans of Tarkir). My "100 Tix, 1 Year" account was not investing in full sets at all and therefore didn't possess these cards.

Thus these transactions are actually as close as you can get to stock market short sales. Even if I technically borrowed cards from myself, I wanted to be totally fair to the spirit of the "100 Tix, 1 Year" project, so I charged fees to the account. This means anyone could have borrowed cards in order to short-sell for the same fees.

There's a lot more to discuss regarding fees and borrowing cards, but that topic will be reserved for my next article.

Pro Tour Misses

Hype around Pro Tour results can break either way. PT performances can cause prices to shoot up, or drop like a stone. For any given card, a lack of results combined with prior speculation in the lead-up can sometimes result in a heavy price fall---constituting an opportunity for short-sellers.

Polukranos, World Eater built up from ~7 Tix in July to more than 18 Tix as Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir was opening. Nonetheless, the legendary hydra didn't meet people's expectations. A speculative selling frenzy dragged its price below 12 Tix the following week, shaving off more than one third of the price.

Clearly the market overreacted here, as Polukranos jumped back to 16 Tix no more than a week later.

Stormbreath Dragon and Sorin, Solemn Visitor found themselves in the same situation, after Pro Tour Khans and Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) respectively.

Even Jace, Vryn's Prodigy suffered from the latest Pro Tour over-hype, its price crashing from 68 Tix to 52 Tix. The only difference for Jace is that the crash and rebound were only separated by three days.

I sold my copies of Jace on Sunday night after Pro Tour BFZ and chose to go for the long run. Nonetheless, a quick flip short sale, with a term of just a few days, would have definitely been a good option here.

In Response to Buyouts

About a year ago, sudden spikes triggered by waves of buyouts affected several mythics. At first, these buyouts targeted mythics freshly rotated out of Standard. They created nice selling opportunities for speculators holding these mythics for traditional speculation.

Enter the Infinite, Worldspine Wurm and Borborygmos Enraged were notable mythics affected by the new phenomenon. These artificial price spikes were followed rapidly by an equally intense price fall, which could have been exploited with short-term short sales.

WW

Buyout price spikes have also affected mythics from current Standard-playable sets. July last year, Ashen Rider was quietly cruising in the neighborhood of 1 Tix when its price spiked to 2.8 Tix overnight. Sure enough, the Rider was back to 1 Tix about a week later.

AR

Champion of Stray Souls jumped from 0.5 to 1.2 Tix and fell back to 0.3 Tix in less than a week (indicated by Arrow 1 below). This too could have been fairly easily exploited with a short sale.

CSS

Arrow 2 indicates another possible short sale opportunity, although the upward and downward trends were more subtle here. Calling a short sale in the second peak isn't easy as it was more difficult to predict when the upward trend would stop.

In all these examples, you probably couldn't have profited off the full difference observed on the graphs. With varying spreads, a difference of 50% on a graph may only translate to 20% cash in your pocket in the end.

But for most of these cards, any short sale would have been a quick flip with a fast turnaround---20% profit in less than a week is quite respectable.

Next Time

Next time I'll discuss what lies beyond short selling. Speculating on full sets not only puts you in a position to short-sell your own cards, but also in a position to loan out cards to other speculators. And if you can loan cards for short sales, you can certainly loan them to play with as well.

Would it be worthwhile to invest in full sets during their one-and-a-half-year tenure in Standard plus the following year, in order to facilitate short sale opportunities and lend cards simultaneously? Could this be an untapped business model lying in wait on MTGO?

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Another Oath of the Gatewatch Spoiler

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Last night an image of another card from Oath of the Gatewatch showed up on the internet. Part of the name is blurred out, but all of the rules text is in tact.

Eternal Pilgrim

On a card like this, I'd really rather that the static ability was lifelink over deathtouch, but you can't win them all. It's entirely possible that we'll see this card start showing up in Aristocrats style decks side by side with any of the lifegaining options in Standard. Seeker of the Way, Siege Rhino, and even Zulaport Cutthroat can help make the psuedo-Vindicate ability on this card active. At the end of the day, a 2/3 that always trades-up isn't that bad, either.

Insider: QS Cast #15: Savants, Spikes and Market Corrections

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Play

This week, the cast talks about Chaz’s new series, Scrap Savant on QS. It’s free, it’s cool! The guys also chat about spikes this week (lookin’ at you, Reiterate) and hyped cards dropping back down in price.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Revisiting Ojutai’s Command

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Two of the Dragons of Tarkir Commands need little introduction. Kolaghan's singlehandedly put Grixis on the top-tier Modern map. Atarka's has been buffing every Burn, Zoo, hybrid, and red-green aggro strategy since the spring. These cards have secured pedestals as format staples, capping off a block that gave us Swiftspears, fetchlands, black Goyfs, Bloodbraid Rhinos, and two of the most powerful (read: broken) cards ever introduced to Modern. Given the block's power-level, and with the end of the year approaching, I want to reexamine another card in the Command cycle many players have forgotten about since its initial spoiling.

Ojutais Command art

In one of our first Modern Nexus articles, a Dragons review, we gave top-marks to Atarka's Command and Kolaghan's Command and a runner-up ribbon to Ojutai's Command. We hit it out of the park on the first two. Ojutai's Cryptic Command imitator? Not so much. As control players shifted to Grixis and the format turned away from white, Ojutai's Command sat in trade binders and bad UWx brews, waiting and wanting to live up to big brother Cryptic. That day might finally have come, thanks to metagame changes and a seemingly inconspicuous two-drop from an utterly underwhelming Modern set release.

Today, we'll take another look at Ojutai's Command in Modern. With the format changing, and players increasingly realizing the might of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, perhaps there's a new home for Command that didn't exist back in the spring.

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Jace's Command

Jace ProdigyGet used to Jace, Vryn's Prodigy in Modern, because the Merfolk Looter upgrade is here to stay. We saw a preview of this at Grand Prix Pittsburgh, where both Corey Burkhart and Lloyd Kurth teamed up with the flipwalker to earn 5th and 19th respectively. Jace has been looting and pillaging Modern Top 8s all summer and fall, spearheading the change from countermagic-heavy Grixis Control lists to the discard and Jund-esque Grixis Midrange lists we saw both at Pittsburgh and as early as August. Players are still figuring out the best way to leverage Jace's strengths, so expect to see him in a wide range of lists as the year closes out.

Naturally, neither Burkart nor Kurth could run Ojutai's Command in their Grixis lists, but this context is nonetheless an important stage-setter for Command's (hopefully) triumphant return. Jace's past performances underscore his newfound relevance in Modern. It is this relevance we are trying to build on in dusting off those Ojutai's Commands.

Ojutais CommandAt its most basic level, Command addresses Jace's worst weakness: his piddly two toughness. Outside of Goblin Electromancers and metalcraftless Etched Champions, there are few creatures in Modern with bigger crosshairs on their heads. Jace is a Lightning (Bolt) rod, Terminate bait, Path fodder, a Kolaghan's Command magnet, and one of Burn's juiciest targets for Searing Blaze. Command addresses all of that. With the exception of the vicious Blaze, Ojutai's Command gives you a take-two on Jace while also effectively blanking that old removal. Did your opponent squander their second or third turn with a main phase Abrupt Decay? Just wait two more turns to return Jace, effectively wasting the opponent's Decay turn, and even getting a second effect out of the deal. All at instant speed!

Snapcaster MageWhen I first reviewed the Command, I focused on its synergy with Snapcaster Mage. Given Command's utter absence from Modern since then, it's clear Snapcaster alone isn't enough to make Command work. Snapcaster plus Jace? That's serious redundancy and makes me much happier to run Command. Indeed, Jace turns on Command's best mode (the recursion) a turn earlier than Snapcaster: it takes at least five open mana to return a Snapcaster and still flashback another spell. Running Jace alongside Snapcaster, apart from being a synergy on its own, gives you many more Command lines than you would otherwise have.

This pairing also mitigates one of Command's biggest drawbacks, its oftentimes too passive modalities. With Cryptic Command, you rarely have to wait to use the card because it counters any spell and always bounces something. Ojutai's is much more limited, so you're often waiting to Dismiss a creature or pitch it as a cheaper Resupply. With Jace and Snapcaster as viable targets, you'll almost always have something to do with the card on turn four (countering something like Rhino and then recurring Jace is gamebreaking), which dramatically improves Command's stock.

All of these reasons give us new incentive to return to the card. It's definitely possible these theoretical advantages still don't make Command good, but it's a solid foundation we can build from when we start looking at actual lists.

Ojutai's Command in UW Control

Enough theory! Let's see Jace and his Command in action. Our first take on the Jace/Command combo is a UW Control silver medalist from an Italian Modern League match in Bologna, Italy. Riccardo Biava took 2nd at the 80 player event, running a playset of Jace and three Ojutai's Commands. He's even using Dragonlord Ojutai himself! Here's Biava's 75.

UW Control, by Riccardo Biava (2nd, Bologna Modern 11/2015)

Creatures

2 Dragonlord Ojutai
2 Restoration Angel
3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Wall of Omens

Instants

1 Dispel
1 Pact of Negation
2 Negate
2 Spell Snare
2 Sphinx's Revelation
3 Cryptic Command
3 Ojutai's Command
4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

3 Supreme Verdict

Lands

1 Ghost Quarter
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Mystic Gate
1 Prairie Stream
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Tectonic Edge
3 Plains
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
5 Island

Sideboard

3 Arashin Cleric
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Stony Silence
1 Celestial Purge
2 Disenchant
1 Dispel
1 Negate
1 Pact of Negation
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Timely Reinforcements

UW Control has seen a lot of recent success in Modern. The deck climbed up to tier 2 in August and hasn't budged since,  driven by performances like Michael Segal's Titan build and Jessy Hefner's conventional Ojutai variant. For more on the deck generally, you can check out Sky Mason's UW Control primer or Trevor Holmes' MTGO foray with the deck.

Wall of OmensBiava builds on these successes in his own list, keeping the core synergies that made UW Control what it is today while also doubling down on Ojutai's Command interactions. Wall of Omens is excellent both in this deck and in the metagame more broadly. With Burn lists increasingly adopting Wild Nacatl and other creature-based damage sources, Wall frustrates the aggro player's early progress while ushering you into the midgame. As we see more Gruul Zoo, Naya Company, Nacatl Burn, and all the other strategies in between, Wall is only going to get better. Ojutai's Command capitalizes on that, bringing back the wall for either a double card-draw or for an added four life on top of the recursion. Wall's inclusion also guarantees you can use Command proactively on turn four, upping the reanimation target count to nine.

Pact of NegationI'm also in love with Pact of Negation as part of an Ojutai's Command and Snapcaster Mage line. A Commanded Snapcaster can flashback the Pact at no cost, giving you a hard counter, a cantrip, and the 2/1 body as early as turn five. That's a turn earlier than you can pull off the same effect with Cryptic Command, giving you more options and making it harder for your opponent to negotiate the midgame. Biava appears similarly invested in this synergy, squeezing a second Pact into the board. Even without Command in the picture, Pact and Snapcaster alone are a formidable duo.

It's unclear if this is the best way to use Command and Jace in a UW list, or even if UW is the best way to mobilize the combo. I have no clue what this deck is doing about a resolved Liliana of the Veil with Jund or Abzan on the play. I'm also pretty sure our RG Tron strategy is just "dodge the matchup" or "pray", neither of which are approaches I want to commit to in a large tournament. That said, the deck still gets points for a strong Burn matchup, a surprisingly resilient Merfolk game, and a ton of grinding power most fair decks can't touch. There are more midgame and lategame synergies here than I can discuss in a single section (Minamo and Jace/Ojutai, Command to return turn four Jace into turn five Verdict flashback, stomping aggro with Command and Arashin Cleric, etc.). Overall, this strikes me as a solid if not conservative way to make Command work in Modern.

Ojutai's Command in Esper Control

Traditional UW Control is one of the more obvious ways to go with Ojutai's Command, but I think it's even better in Esper. Richard Carlton, who has been playing UWx Control in Modern for over two years, took a Command and Jace-fueled Esper Control list to 3rd place at an SCG IQ in Gaithersburg on November 14. Although Carlton's list shares some similarities to Biava's, it's much deeper into Esper colors and switches up its maindeck to reflect that commitment.

Esper Control, by Richard Carlton (3rd, SCG IQ Gaithersburg 11/14)

Creatures

2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Instants

2 Mana Leak
1 Murderous Cut
3 Ojutai's Command
4 Path to Exile
2 Spell Snare

Planeswalkers

1 Gideon Jura
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Lingering Souls
4 Serum Visions
2 Supreme Verdict

Lands

2 Island
1 Plains
1 Swamp
3 Creeping Tar Pit
4 Flooded Strand
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Godless Shrine
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Polluted Delta
1 Shambling Vent
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Engineered Explosives
2 Spellskite
2 Stony Silence
1 Celestial Purge
1 Disenchant
1 Dispel
1 Negate
1 Slaughter Pact
2 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
2 Thoughtseize
1 Timely Reinforcements

Unlike Biava's list, Carlton is less invested in Ojutai's Command synergies and more concerned with playing good cards. Lingering Souls is nasty in Esper, both addressing aggro problems in Affinity and Burn variants and wreaking havoc on poor Lily. I'm also convinced that Inquisition of Kozilek is currently the second-best police card in Modern after Lightning Bolt, and any strategy that can play four is immediately better-positioned in an open metagame. Carlton is also cutting the Walls and relying on Serum Visions for his card-draw, which works better with his Tasigurs and singleton Murderous Cut but again doesn't do much to leverage Command.

Lingering SoulsAll metagame factors considered, it's often a better idea to follow this minimalist Command approach instead of the more synergistic one as seen in Biava's 75. When I tossed together the UW Control version, I found a lot of hands and game-states that never really developed until turn four or five. They were just so reactive. The Esper Control version has proactive plays at every stage of the early game, whether Jace on turn two, Tasigur with countermagic backup on turn three, or Inquisition and Visions whenever you have the mana. This sets you up for those bigger, more reactive plays with Command on turns four or later, while also not putting you at the mercy of early aggression (especially if you're on the draw). You also have the option of playing reactive, whereas UW Control has no choice. When you want to play draw-go, you can. When you want to crank out Spirit tokens or a protected Tasigur, you can do that too.

If you're looking to dabble in Ojutai's Command but not rely on it, then this Esper Control style is the safer approach. That said, I'd at least try more maindeck stock in the Command/Snapcaster synergy, especially with Pacts. Slaughter Pact, a single copy of which sits in Carlton's board, can be incredibly powerful in this deck. Command into Snapcaster into Pact comes online as early as turn four. You can even double up on the Pact on turn six and still pay for the upkeep triggers. Pact's targeting restrictions make this a poor line of play in Grixis matchups (Angler and Tasigur laugh at the Slaughter), but it's a great way to clean a board against a Zoo deck.

Making Command Work

I'd be lying if I said UWx Control is the best place to be in Modern right now. That said, Jace is absolutely a great place to be in Modern, and as the format looks for innovative ways to use our newfound Planeswalker, I'm willing to cast a wide net to see what works. UW Control has enough teeth to bite its way into tier 2, and it's possible that Jace and Command are the next evolution for this traditional deck style.

Next week, we'll be reviewing the November metagame in our monthly breakdown (we need to wait until then for all the sites to post their final November lists). Until then, keep on brewing with Jace and revisiting underplayed technologies to see if they can fit into present-day Modern. Do you have any experience with Ojutai's Command  or other brewing ideas? How else would you get the card to work? Keep the innovation coming and I'll see you all next week!

Insider: Why Do We Get Surprised By Breakout Cards?

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One of the reasons we talk to each other about Magic card prices is to get a better idea of what's really going on with the market. We're all in this so we can be a little less wrong, a little more right.

In this article, we'll look at historical examples of times we---you---me---all of us got it wrong. If we can, we'll try to learn some lessons so we can put them into practice for Oath of the Gatewatch.

Playing with Spoiled Cards

With an early spoiler, we have four or five weeks of looking at the card before we greedily crack it open at the prerelease. It's really easy to dismiss a card when we have nothing but theorycrafting to go on.

This is probably the most important reason why we miss stuff. Why we miss out on a creature like Tarmogoyf.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Goyf's story is really old, considering that it was printed in 2007. The internet was already a thing back then! I recall that Goyf was dismissed for Standard play because it was kind of bad (and it was). Aside from Tarfire double-powering it, Goyf couldn't get big in Standard.

However, it found a quick home in Legacy, where a fetchland and Brainstorm could send it sky-high on the first few turns. And in spite of its future as a cross-format powerhouse, the general consensus on release was that it wasn't much better than Werebear.

The critical error was that nobody was actually playing with the card! Sharpies existed; we could have mocked up Tarmogoyfs, realized they were nuts and bought them for $1 on presale. But conventional wisdom took hold and said, "Why waste your time trying this thing out?"

The lesson is clear: if a card has potential, try it out. There are myriad ways we can go about this other than brewing a whole new deck from scratch.

First, you can seed a new card in your opening hand in an existing deck and see if it plays well. You can also pretend to draw it on the turn when you'll have the mana for it and see if it's something you want to cast.

Or, you can just shuffle four of them up in a sixty-card deck and see what it's like to naturally draw and play multiples. Sixty-four cards, the sacrilege!

Finally, you can just take the plunge and proxy up a brew incorporating the new card. Who knows, you might hit it big on the finance front and find the next Caw Blade in the process!

Comparisons to Cards from the Past

Wizards often does this silly thing where they'll take a good card that people like and make it terrible. Lightning Helix became Warleader's Helix, which didn't see nearly as much play.

So it's natural to dismiss a new card that takes a slant on an old favorite, even if the powered-down version is still great. Here are two of my favorite recent examples.

Eternal Witness was one of the first really good uncommons of the modern era. Regrowth on a dude was pretty sweet back in 2004. On turn three, you'd be buying back a Sakura-Tribe Elder or a Duress or a Cranial Extraction (and then promptly lose to Arcbound Ravager). But it was fun, and it was a part of a cool Astral Slide deck that I liked as well.

So what happens when we get another Eternal Witness? Well, they look a lot like an Izzet Chronarch or Nucklavee, but every now and then, they look like a Den Protector.

This guy was a recent one and he's parked at $16; if you were astute, you had a lot of time to pick up extra copies. However, most people were looking past Den Protector and gazing longingly at Deathmist Raptor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Den Protector
There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathmist Raptor

The Raptor stole the show for a long time, even though Den Protector saw a decent amount of play. Then people started playing with the numbers in Abzan and found that the Raptor wasn't so necessary---but Den Protector definitely was. Soon enough, the dinosaur got cut from just about every Standard deck, but Den Protector just keeps popping up.

This falls sideways along the section above; the people who tried out Den Protector early on found it to be a solid role-player. Sure, it's not going to buy back a fetch on turn three, but it might be buying back an Utter End or an Ultimate Price and then swing in with pseudo-evasion.

The second recent example is Hangarback Walker. The card had so much going on, it was hard to evaluate. It looks sort of like a Sprouting Thrinax (which was format-defining) and also like Chronomaton, a star of Magic 2013 Limited. (Seriously, did you play that guy in Limited? Surprisingly good threat.)

Anyway, Hangarback Walker resembled two other solid cards that were persistent threats. If people played with it, they would have seen what a monster it was. But then again, the echo chamber reared up to remind us, "All the removal will exile it anyway."

Missing Good Cards Among the Showy Ones

When Dig Through Time was spoiled, it was overshadowed by the presence of Treasure Cruise in the same set. Ancestral Recall, so good! All the attention fell on making Treasure Cruise good in Modern, Legacy, Vintage, et cetera.

Dig saw a decent amount of play in early Modern testing, but it wasn't until Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir that we saw Dig rip through a Standard deck to find eight points of burn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dig Through Time

I come from an era when Impulse was in Standard, so two Impulses was obviously great as well. People theorycrafted all day long about whether Cruise or Dig was better, when it didn't really matter---both were insane.

Dig was no dollar rare. After the PT, when Dig was everywhere and Treasure Cruise was stuck powering up Delvers in Modern, the price shot up.

A lot of people got deluded, thinking that the common was better than the rare. It might have been, and it certainly was in a few formats. But the fact remains that Dig was, and is, the better card in Standard. It took weeks to realize it was so powerful in a smaller format.

Did You Miss Something Toward the End?

We talked about this phenomenon on the forums, where Insider aregand mentioned Boros Reckoner. Reckoner wasn't revealed until the last day or so of spoiler season, and it got lost in the shuffle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boros Reckoner

If the minotaur was out three weeks earlier, we would have had more time to contemplate its merits, for example how well the first strike lined up against Thragtusk. We might have seen the cute Blasphemous Act combo and a few hardy souls would have tested it, learning that it wasn't as silly as originally thought.

When you're keeping an eye on any spoiler, don't miss the stuff that comes out at the end. So often, people clamor to see the bomb mythics and rares, and quickly dismiss anything that come out late unless it's immediately glitzy.

The better approach is to ask if the card does something unique, or something more efficiently than its predecessors. If it's weird, test it! If it looks efficient, throw it in a build and see how it feels.

Honing Your Heuristics

I think of these techniques as heuristics, which means they're imperfect problem-solving tools. Even applying these lessons, I'm sure I'll miss a lot. I'm sure you will, too. The goal is to be less wrong each time, to steal a little wisdom without having to pay much for it.

I want to thank the Insiders that discussed this topic on the forum with me, and I suggest taking a look at the thread to see even more examples.

What's a breakout card that you missed? Also, feel free to brag---what sleeper did you buy before anyone else knew about it? How did you know so early? Share your stories here or in the forum!

-Doug

Scrap Savant: Results for Deck #2

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Welcome back, everyone. For those in America, I hope your Thanksgiving was fantastic. For everyone else outside the States, sorry for the delay---Thanksgiving will do that.

Now that we're back from our turkey-induced comas, let's discuss the poll results and talk briefly about the next deck.

CLOSED_Results2_1

It seems we'll be building with Zada, Hedron Grinder and Disciple of the Ring. That's interesting, to say the least. Has it even been done before? I'm sure it has, somewhere out there.

This week certainly fits the bill for the goal of the series, to build with cards that likely haven't been paired together, or even used in a competitive setting. I'm really excited for this week's list, and I'm sure it will make for some interesting games on MTGO.

Building with Bulk

These two cards could take us in two wildly different directions. Each requires a very specific compliment of cards, and serves an entirely different function. At the same time, both require an arsenal of spells to be effective, and in an interesting way they almost compliment each other.

The strategies these cards lend themselves to would normally be quite different, but in this case we may be able to concoct some really good synergies. I suspect that Disciple of the Ring will end up acting as a top-end threat, rather than a way to control our opponent's game plan.

Here's what I see as the glue between the two strategies.

All of these cards work well with Zada, and are spells. We can simultaneously create a lot of creatures for Zada, Hedron Grinder triggers, and put spells into the graveyard for Disciple of the Ring.

Since we're planning to lean on Zada's trigger more, our decklist might look a little different than if we built solely around Disciple. I decided to focus on Zada because I think she has the inherently better ability, and Disciple can work as an aggressive finisher better than Zada can play control.

Let's look at a sample decklist:

Zada and Her Disciples

Creatures

4 Zada, Hedron Grinder
3 Disciple of the Ring
4 Elusive Spellfist
3 Gudul Lurker
2 Eldrazi Skyspawner

Spells

4 Dragon Fodder
3 Hordeling Outburst
3 Refocus
4 Titan's Strength
1 Taigam's Strike
2 Dance of the Skywise
3 Sure Strike

Lands

6 Island
6 Mountain
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Skyline Cascade
2 Mystic Monastery
2 Foundry of the Consuls

Sideboard

3 Glint
2 Dance of the Skywise
3 Negate
2 Outpost Siege

Our preliminary list here is obviously affected by the budget confines we've established. Some of the initial considerations may raise a few eyebrows, and we certainly may make additional changes before taking the deck live on MTGO.

The deck wants to be spell-heavy, and at the same time generate large numbers of high-quality creatures. Obvious upgrades (which I'll talk about when the videos go live) include cards like Monastery Swiftspear, Abbot of Keral Keep, and additional cards for the mana base like Shivan Reef.

For now, our creatures have to synergize with Zada, Hedron Grinder and/or provide extra creatures like Eldrazi Skyspawner. The unblockable creatures Elusive Spellfist and Gudul Lurker seem great when paired with plenty of spells and Zada triggers.

I think we'll ultimately end up playing Pia and Kiran Nalaar, which seems better overall, but that can be discussed and tested later.

~

In case you missed it, I talked about the series along with Doug Linn and Kelly Reid on the latest QS Cast. Make sure to take a listen if you're an Insider, or be patient and it will be available for free later in the week.

I'm happy with how the latest poll ended up, and I'm excited to try out the decklist. Hopefully interest and participation in the series continues to climb as we move forward.

This series should be a great way to enjoy Magic without having to spend a lot of money upfront. The limitations force us to try and find viable strategies building around unorthodox cards, and there will always be options to upgrade for those with additional budget.

See you all soon.

-Chaz @ChazVMTG

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