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Insider: Understanding the Impact of Golgari Grave-Troll’s Modern Unbanning

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The unbanning of Golgari Grave-Troll in Modern has significant financial and metagame repercussions.

The most immediate financial reaction has been an extreme increase in the demand for Golgari Grave-Troll, which, since the announcement, has drastically increased in price online and in paper. The online price has already pulled back modestly, while the paper price has seen a slight decrease. The prices are likely to fall a bit more before stabilizing, but any early showings in tournament results could easily drive the price to new highs.

I have read many opinions that Golgari Grave-Troll is not actually relevant in Modern because there are already strong dredge cards available, but I wholeheartedly disagree.

Graveyard decks thrive on their consistency and redundancy, so Golari Grave-Troll will not simply be replacing previous options, it will quite often be used alongside them. There is a form of synergy between each and every card in a Dredge deck, because dredging is most powerful when it chains itself into another dredge card.

Also, Golgari Grave-Troll is the most powerful of the dredge cards, and, in dedicated graveyard decks, every card really does count, and the sixth card will often be the difference between life and death.

Regardless of how impactful Golgari Grave-Troll ultimately ends up being in Modern, it’s going to generate a lot of interest. It’s going to see play.

Golgari Grave-Troll brings with it a host of support cards that are currently fringe players or perhaps brand new in the metagame. Understand that Golgari Grave-Troll has never before been Modern legal, so it technically unprecedented.

I have studied the history of graveyard decks in Modern, along with the impact of Golgari Grave-Troll in the Extended format made defunct by the inception of Modern. I have identified the cards that are most likely to support Golgari Grave-Troll and carry the potential to be significant winners in the wake of Golari Grave-Troll’s unbanning.

Some of these cards are sure bets with moderate upside, while other options are more speculative but come with the potential of bigger upside. If Golgari Grave-Troll is successful at the upcoming Pro Tour, rest assured that at least a handful of the cards mentioned today will be supporting it and will spike accordingly.

Dredgers

The most obvious winner is the second-best dredge card in the format, Stinkweed Imp.

It joins Golgari Grave-Troll to create a reliable and powerful dredge base. It’s also a reasonable piece of defensive board presence that stands up well against some powerful threats in the metagame, including Tarmogoyf, Siege Rhino, Restoration Angel, and even Emrakul, the Aeons Torn.

Golgari Thug is the third-best dredge card in the format and another winner. While some decks won’t want the full 12 dredgers, many will. Golgari Thug is also arguably the most useful of the dredge cards, in terms of utility, because it costs a mere two mana to play and comes with a situationally excellent triggered ability.

It isn’t particularly powerful as a dredge card, and it’s a very weak land, but the renewed interest in graveyard strategies is surely a net positive for Dakmor Salvage. I expect it to see minimal play at best, but it’s a card to keep in mind.

I absolutely love Darkblast as a repeatable source of creature removal. It took a big hit from the bannings, which will result in far fewer one-drop mana creatures--Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer--to kill.

On the other hand, Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique and Snapcaster Mage will see more play, and it’s actually quite good against Affinity. There will always be good targets for Darkblast. It’s a relevant card in this discussion because of its synergy in Dredge decks as both a dredge card and a spell with a ton of utility that can be easily found by other dredge cards. A popular sideboard card to be sure, and it may have maindeck potential in an extreme metagame.

Life from the Loam has Dredge and also benefits from a stocked graveyard. It comes with many potential synergies, but my favorite is how good it is with Golari Grave-Troll. Golgari Grave-Troll does actually have a cost and can very realistically be cast, at which point it has the potential to be a huge threat. Casting Golgari Grave-Troll becomes a sure proposition with Life from the Loam involved.

Graveyard Enablers

Now we enter the land of the best graveyard enablers. The cards that support dredge generally fall into a few camps: discard spells, card drawing and mill. Some cards blur the lines between two or more of these abilities.

Glimpse the Unthinkable has a lot of raw power as a mill card because it puts ten cards into the graveyard for just two mana. In a graveyard-centric deck, this generates significant card selection power while setting up the graveyard with dredge cards and payoffs.

Glimpse the Unthinkable has already seen some Modern play in Dredgevine decks, but it was a particularly important piece of the Dredge deck in Extended, such as when two Japanese players piloted it to the Top 8 of Pro Tour Austin in their Dredge decks, competing against Dark Depths-Vampire Hexmage combo and Hypergenesis.

Milling only eight cards, Breaking // Entering is a weaker version of Glimpse the Unthinkable, but it’s still a potentially playable card in a deck looking to add redundancy to the self-mill plan.

Perhaps the best self-mill card is Hedron Crab. It can be cast on turn one or two and paired with a land, particularly fetch lands, to generate some immediate mill value. It demands attention from the opponent or will mill a significant amount of cards as turns progress. This sees play in Dredgevine and it was a crucial component of the aforementioned Extended version of Dredge, so I see no reason why it won’t be useful tomorrow. Hedron Crab is particularly useful because it’s a creature, which lends itself to many potential synergies.

At this point we have entered the realm of card that draw and discard cards to help enable powerful Dredge draws. Drowned Rusalka is another card with pedigree in both Dredgevine and old Extended Dredge. It is interesting in that it discards first, so it’s best used as a way to get that first Dredge card into the graveyard, ideally cast on turn one and sacrificed in the upkeep of the second turn. It’s also excellent because it can sacrifice any other creature to activate the ability, so it can easily convert an army into many dredges.

In Vintage, Dredge players turn to Bazaar of Baghdad, while Modern Dredge players are forced to play Magus of the Bazaar. This was an all-star in the old Extended deck, and it's poised to make an impact in Modern. While fragile, it’s very powerful as a mill engine that’s capable of effectively ending the game by itself if left unanswered for a few turns.

Ideas Unbound saw play in old Extended versions as a powerful draw spell that could yield three opportunities to dredge, also putting them back into the graveyard. Ideas Unbound is a fine graveyard enabler that can draw three cards normally place any three cards into the graveyard , particularly dredge cards, at end of turn.

A popular graveyard enabler in Dredgevine is Lotleth Troll. It’s purely a discard outlet, but like Putrid Imp in Legacy, its repeatable and can be used to place the same dredge card into the graveyard turn after turn. It’s also a very reasonable threat that could take over a game by itself. Lothleth Troll is also, very importantly, a zombie, which makes it great for enabling the payoff card Gravecrawler.

A similar concept as Lothleth Troll is Zombie Infestation, which is a repeatable source of discard that doubles as a way to generate board presence. Both of these cards are particularly excellent with Life from the Loam.

One of the most fringe graveyard enablers of all is Greenseeker, which is actually much better than it seems because it can allow for dredging as early as turn two. It has seen scattered play in past graveyard decks and has some future Modern potential.

Graveyard Payoffs

The biggest payoff in past Modern graveyard decks has been Vengevine. It’s pure value from the graveyard, card advantage and tempo, and it’s more or less a game-winning plan. It’s best in a very creature-centric deck that uses as many creatures as possible as graveyard enablers.

Gravecrawler is perhaps the best way to take advantage of Vengevine, because it can be milled then cast from the graveyard to count towards Vengevine. It’s also a very reasonable threat in its own right.

Fatestitcher had its day in the sun as part of Jeskai Ascendancy combo, and it’s very reasonable in Dredge. Importantly, it’s a Zombie, so it can be Unearthed to start a Gravecrawler chain.

Haakon, Stromgald Scourge can be cast from the graveyard, but it’s particularly interesting because it’s a Zombie, which means it can start a Gravecrawler chain even with no Zombie currently in play.

Skaab Ruinator is also a Zombie, and it too can be cast from the graveyard, so it’s another great way to start a Gravecrawler chain. It’s significantly more powerful than Haakon, Stromgald Scourge, but it comes at a steep cost. This will be best in very creature-centric builds.

Bloodghast is a safe bet and a strong graveyard payoff. Bloodghast doesn’t combine super well with Vengevine, but it’s a Vengevine in its own right. It’s a strong card in any graveyard deck and works particularly well with fetch lands.

Bridge From Below is the classic Dredge payoff in a world of Dread Return, but it’s still a great card in Modern because of how much value it can create.

Narcomoeba isn't particularly powerful without access to Dread Return, but it's still a very powerful card with some Modern application.

~

What are your thoughts on these picks? Do you have picks of your own? Share in the comments!

-Adam

Insider: Beyond the Hype – Analyzing the $5+ Fate Reforged Preorders

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I remember when prereleases were a great time to pick up cards. You could draft all day and trade, or even wait for cards to trickle in to the dealer tables.

Around the time Lorwyn launched, preorder prices were still pretty reasonable. Nobody had any idea how good the first iteration of Planeswalkers were, and preorder prices were more often reflective of the average player's risk aversion than the wallet-busting hype trains we see today.

Believe it or not, but I bought my first Bitterblossom for $5 at the Morningtide prerelease.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bitterblossom

Today, however, we're usually lucky if cards we want to play with week one don't completely tank from their preorder price. We can occasionally see something others don't and actually make money on a preorder, but it's tough. For the purposes of today's article, I'm going to take a look at every card that is preordering for $5 or more and determine how realistic I believe the preorder price to be.

Brutal Hordechief

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brutal Hordechief

Brutal Hordechief certainly has the feel of a constructed playable card. It also looks strong enough for Cube and is likely to have some casual appeal.

That said, the constructed application of this card is quite narrow. There are a lot of powerful four-drops in Standard, and many of them happen to be black. My gut tells me that this card is weaker than Sorin, Butcher of the Horde and Siege Rhino. I mean, obviously it's worse than Siege Rhino, but the point stands that it's tough for a four drop to find a home in a world of powerful four drops.

The only deck type I could see wanting this more than other available fours would be Monoblack Aggro, though the ultimate problem there is that the deck was quite bad pre-Fate Reforged, and Brutal Hordechief is probably not good enough to change this.

All in all, five dollars seems like a reasonable price, particularly if you're looking to jam this guy week one. But every dollar you spend beyond the fifth strikes me as a loss.

Verdict: Wait.

Monastery Mentor

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Have you ever seen a more hyped Gray Ogre in your life? Monastery Mentor is clearly Standard playable, but the real question is how many decks it fits into--an issue I addressed a couple weeks ago. It's going to be very difficult for a Standard-only card that only fits into one or two decks to maintain a $30 price tag.

Of course, there are those who believe that Monastery Mentor is not a Standard only card, but rather that it will play very well with Young Pyromancer in Modern. While this is possibly true, in order for Monastery Mentor to take off in Modern, players will have to make the decision that it is more powerful than Geist of Saint Traft.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Geist of Saint Traft

An uncountered Geist will leave opponents desperately trying to trade off their Snapcaster Mages, whereas Monastery Mentor is just as easily dispatched by Lightning Bolt as any other creature.

There is certainly some argument for Mentor here, such as a Liliana of the Veil infested metagame or a metagame defined by blockers to the point of making Mentor stronger than Geist, but neither of these is presently the case in Modern.

Such a shift could occur, but for now $30 strikes me as an absurd price. If you have a very good list and want to game with Mentors soon after the release, then it's not completely unreasonable, but I fully expect these to at least half in price before long.

Verdict: Break Standard or wait.

Shaman of the Great Hunt

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shaman of the Great Hunt

This card has every problem that Brutal Hordechief has with none of the upside. It doesn't fit into the existing Monored deck, which isn't the strongest contender in the first place, and it has a pretty powerful card competing with it in the form of Ashcloud Phoenix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashcloud Phoenix

I would easily take any money I was planning on spending on Shaman of the Great Hunt and dump it into Ashcloud Phoenix. It's a more resilient threat that can attack past Courser of Kruphix. Shaman is certainly a nice looking card on its face, but there're just too many negative external factors for me to endorse it.

Verdict: Pass on this one.

Soulfire Grand Master

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulfire Grand Master

This is just ludicrous. This card will see play. Of that there is no question.

However, a Grizzly Bear that has application in the very late game isn't something a ton of decks are itching for. If your deck isn't trying to curve out aggressively, then you're just not going to want to play this card.

The only decks that will look to play Soulfire Grand Master are Boros and Jeskai. I do believe you'll be hard-pressed to find a list of either archetype that doesn't want SGM, but, at the same time, I don't know if it's a four-of. The body is incredibly easily outclassed and the ability is extremely mana-intensive.

The lifelink makes this matter against aggressive decks and the ability makes it very relevant in board stalls, but it's hard to deny that this price is largely hype-driven. Unlike Monastery Mentor, I would be totally fine playing a deck that wants this card without bothering to acquire any week one.

Verdict: Wait.

Temporal Trespass

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temporal Trespass

I like this card. Unlike with Treasure Cruise, I could see it actually just being very good without being broken--not an easy thing to accomplish with delve.

I find it possible, and even likely, that Temporal Trespass finds its way into every constructed format. It would be hard to imagine foils not being sought after for EDH as well.

That said, playing more than one copy of this card sounds like outright insanity, which is a large part of why I think the card is good without being broken--you can only reasonably cast one or two, which avoids the absolute degeneracy of chaining Time Walks.

This will ultimately stop the price from increasing too much, but, at the same time, it's hard to imagine it dropping much lower.

Verdict: Buy one/two as soon as you want to play it. It could drop a dollar or two if you're planning on speculating.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

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So, this card is just cool. It might see play as a one or two of in Modern and it will see play in some capacity in Standard. Legacy is possible, if fringe and unlikely, and EDH is a guarantee.

People are going to want this card. That said, you can probably do better than $30. I don't know how much it will actually drop, but I'm having a very difficult time imagining it will increase in price without becoming a Standard staple.

Verdict: Wait.

Warden of the First Tree

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warden of the First Tree

This card has often been compared to Figure of Destiny, with the exception that it is worse.

I would go much further than merely saying that it's worse than Figure of Destiny. None of the factors that made Figure awesome are present here. Warden doesn't have a relevant creatures type, isn't good enough for Modern (Figure was Extended playable), and Ranger of Eos isn't Standard legal.

For 3 mana across at least two colors we get... a Trained Armodon. In a world of Lightning Strike and Bile Blight.

After spending seven mana, we still find ourselves losing to the same suite of removal while enough time has passed for even less efficient removal spells to trade favorably with our creature. Fleecemane Lion at least gets to be awesome at the seven mana mark and initiates an interesting cat and mouse game.

Warden does have the upside of being able to trigger its last ability multiple times. Making it to this point is very mana intensive and risky, though, and only once the final ability is triggered does Warden make the jump from being decent to great. This in no way outweighs the downside.

Warden will probably see a non-zero/decent amount of play, but it's not about to knock anybody's socks off.

Verdict: Wait.

Whisperwood Elemental

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whisperwood Elemental

This card is very strong. Manifest, in general, is a deceptively strong ability. The 2/2s generated by this guy can either just be very good morphs (the intended goal of Adam Yurchick's brew last week) or opportunities to influence combat with clever bluffs. It remains to be seen exactly how strong mainfesting is, but the other abilities are not to be underestimated.

Making a 2/2 (with potential upside) every turn is strong. It's a part of what Xenagos, the Reveler and Master of the Wild Hunt do, and those were both constructed staples. Whisperwood Elemental's other ability allows it to really mess up combat or counteract opposing sweepers. These are both very powerful abilities.

Ultimately, there does come the question of how many green decks want this card. Unfortunately, the answer might not be many of them, though it's certainly some of them.

I don't believe that this card is currently fully understood and I expect it to increase in value. It's hard for me to imagine it going above the $10-15 range, so I don't know that I'd speculate on it aggressively at its preorder price, but I would recommend picking up a set.

Verdict: Buy.

~

As my introduction heavily implied, buying cards at their preorder prices these days is often just hemorrhaging value.

That said, there are various reasons to preorder a handful of cards. The biggest motivation to preorder is, of course, to play with the cards, but a few do slip through the cracks without being inflated by hype.

You sure won't find the next Tarmogoyf or even the next Spellskite if you're not paying attention. I don't believe there is any such card in Fate Reforged, but I do think that Whisperwood Elemental is bound to mature from its preorder price.

How do you feel about my list? Think I'm wrong about Monastery Master being overhyped? Disagree on the power of Whisperwood Elemental? Let me know in the comments!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: MTGO Market Report for Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements. There will be some overlap between the two sections.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 20th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website, while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

Jan20

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

The Banned & Restricted announcement on Monday has shifted prices across these sets. With Birthing Pod banned, Voice of Resurgence (and DGM along with it) has fallen in price significantly as a result. This card will find a floor eventually, and should prove to be a modest role player in the new Modern metagame. Keep your eyes on this card, but it’s got a long way to fall yet with only price memory providing any support at the moment.

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains unchanged, with future price gains anticipated as interest in Modern rises in advance of Modern Masters 2015. Two calls from last week that are reiterated here are Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade. Both have seen play in Modern in the past, and both have been absent from the format since the release of KTK. With redemption providing a (rising) price floor, both of these cards are very low risk specs, with strong upside potential in the new Modern metagame.

The short-term outlook for M14 is for continued price weakness as Archangel of Thune drops in value due to the banning of Birthing Pod. As the angel falls in price, value should accumulate elsewhere in the set. On top of that, both Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze could see more play in Modern going forward. This set will be closely monitored for opportunities as it is definitely back on the radar with the shake-up of the Modern format.

Theros Block & M15

As for Standard legal sets, M15, JOU and BNG are all priced at a premium compared to TCG Low. This means there will be no price support from redemption for these sets, despite falling in price on MTGO in the last month. There are no targets in BNG or M15 to recommend at this time.

However, the B&R announcement has an impact on the prospects of JOU. Prior to the printing of the delve cards from KTK, Keranos, God of Storms was establishing itself as a Legacy- and Modern-playable card. It was showing up in Miracles and Twin decks in those formats respectively. Having falling by more than 50% since October, this card is one to keep an eye on as it should reassert itself.

Also, Eidolon of the Great Revel is a staple of Burn decks in both Legacy and Modern. Although the B&R announcement doesn’t particularly favor the re-emergence of this strategy, all decks will still have to reckon with Burn. The addition of Monastery Swiftspear to Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel means that Burn has a very effective core of creatures that cannot be ignored.

While in Standard, Eidolon of the Great Revel has seen a price floor of around 6 tix. Interest in Modern will be increasing, so this should be considered a strong buy in the 6-7 tix range. As Standard develops with the addition of FRF (and then DTK in the Spring), devotion strategies might reemerge, which could be another boost for this RR two-drop.

THS has some value as a larger set, but is also the most plentiful in terms of supply on MTGO. Generally, the time to speculate on the THS block sets is past, though something like Xenagos, the Reveler could see a metagame shift price increase after Fate Reforged is released. Keep an eye on any Standard results from the upcoming weekend to see an early indication of the impact from the new set.

Khans of Tarkir

KTK is one of the most redeemable sets in memory, albeit a little less so with the recent banning announcement. Nevertheless, the time to be buying mythic rares from this set will be during online release events for Fate Reforged. Make sure you have some tix set aside to stock up on this set. In particular, a card like Siege Rhino should continue to be Standard playable for the next year, and has shown itself to be Modern playable as well. Going deep on this card as a long-term hold is very defensible as a strategy.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Modern

The changes to the Banned & Restricted list remove one archetype completely, while U/R delver will go back to being a non-Tier 1 deck. Obviously this kills the price on a couple of cards directly related to these decks, however it creates a tremendous speculative opportunity for pretty much everything else in Modern, starting with Junk/Jund decks, Affinity and Splinter Twin variants.

In less than six hours post-announcement on Monday, many Modern staples jumped by 50% or more. Several of these cards were featured in last week’s report. If these cards were great picks before the announcement, prices have moved up too much on some of them to still represent good buying opportunities.

Some not-so-obvious opportunities are still around though. Here are the positions we think are good targets. Since prices are likely to move by the publication of this report we will also include a price limit. If the card breaches the limit, look for other opportunities. The best speculative idea can turn into a very mediocre one if the price is too high.

Living End <3 tix
Flames of the Blood Hand <1 tix
Vendilion Clique <40 tix
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker <7 tix
Slippery Bogle <0.7 tix
Daybreak Coronet <15 tix
Fulminator Mage <25 tix
Eidolon of the Great Revel <9 tix
Goblin Guide <6 tix
Sphinx's Revelation <12 tix
Steel Overseer <1.8 tix
Domri Rade <7 tix
Magus of the Moon <4 tix
Sundering Titan <10 tix
Knight of the Reliquary <1.5 tix

Not having Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time in Modern is an environment easy to imagine, as it would largely be how Modern was prior to the release of KTK. Without Birthing Pod, it’s simply unknown what Modern will look like now. All prior established archetypes may now have a shot at the spotlight in the upcoming Pro Tour. The best way to be prepared for this is to hold a basket of staples across many archetypes, and wait to see what emerges as the format develops.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Every week, we’ll cover any sell recommendations pertaining to past buy recommendations, as well as other strong sells. This week, the Banned & Restricted announcement has triggered a large shift in value on many cards, and prices have begun to reflect this. This process of adjustment can move quickly, but sometimes it can extend for a long time with no sign of a bottom.

If you’ve managed to acquire any Modern staples that have jumped in price this week, it’s not yet time to sell those. The constructed portion of the upcoming Pro Tour will be Modern, which should provide a great short-term selling opportunity. But there are some cards that have diminished prospects this week. Following the B&R list announcement last Monday, and if you haven’t done so yet, we feel like you should sell the following cards.

Birthing Pod
Voice of Resurgence
Steam Vents
Chalice of the Void
Dig Through Time

Birthing Pod has nowhere to go but down; this card will settle below 1 tix at some point so it will always be correct to sell it sooner rather than later. Being almost exclusively played in Pod decks, Voice of Resurgence should also fall hard, though it’s still a small-set mythic. The current buy price at Goatbots is about 13 tix; if you can’t get 10 tix or more for your playset, holding is correct.

Steam Vents and Chalice of the Void prices were really dependent on the omnipresence of U/R Delver decks. Although they will not drop as hard as or as low the first two cards, they should be getting cheaper in the short term. The blue-red shockland will still be the most widely played in Modern of all the shocklands.

Finally, one of our calls from last week, Dig Through Time sustained its previous price because of a high playability in the second most played format online, Modern. With its ban we don’t think this delve instant has anything to gain in the next few months. If you bought last week or are holding extra copies, sell now and cut your losses. This will continued to be opened in the months ahead. It might turn out to be a potent option in Legacy, but that’s not yet clear.

Good Guy WotC

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Recently an eight-year-old girl attended GP Denver. It was her first major event and if she likes the game enough to be jimmy-jammed in a windowless room with a bunch of unshowered nerds, I'm sure she had a blast. Word spread about the young competitor and  her father must have contacted Wizards to congratulate them on a job well done because this week a package was waiting for her when she got home.

Her father, /u/conrey on reddit, shared a few snaps of the unboxing in an imgur gallery.

It wasn't a bad haul and it included a personalized letter from some of the people at Wizards. There is a closeup of the letter on imgur.

Every once in a while, you see a story like this and remember that while Hasbro calls a lot of the shots, Wizards still makes a lot of decisions and will occasionally do something like this. Her father claims Wizards has made a fan for life - and on a week where lots of people are threatening to quit Magic forever, a fan for life is hard to come by.

Follow Wizards' example and be a good ambassador to the younger players you see at prerelease and other casual events. A fan for life could end up a trade partner or customer for life as well and the game has to grow to survive another 21 years.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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WOTC Cares… Part 834,385

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In other words... this isn't the first time we've heard of Wizards of the Coast going far out their way to make the day of one of their players. This time is not different, but it's certainly worth sharing.

Shamanistic Revelation

A Magic player recently took his 8-year-old daughter, who is learning the game, to Grand Prix Omaha last week. She not only enjoyed the trip, but her father told some employees of Wizards about how she's looking forward to playing the game herself.

And Wizards delivered.

You can find the full story here. 

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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The Dangers of Banning Birthing Pod

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Unless you've been living under a rock, you've read all about the banned and restricted list update. If you have indeed been living beneath stone, check out Jason's article complete with commentary on every change. You can also see the official announcement here. All caught up? Good.

So Birthing Pod is gone from Modern. In many ways, this means that it's gone from Magic completely. It's no longer in Standard. It's banned in Modern. It's a fringe playable in Legacy, at best. And it's not what Vintage players want at all. I've only ever seen one Cube deck run it, and that was more of a Recurring Nightmare build than a Pod list. I've also never particularly seen it run to good effect in Commander. Birthing Pod is a build-around card, so it just doesn't do that much in singleton formats.

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In effect, this banning basically wipes Birthing Pod from the Magic map. Sure, it will still see a little casual play, and maybe Pod enthusiasts will turn their sights to Legacy and see what can be done there, but for the most part, we're looking at a brave new world the likes of which we haven't really imagined since May of 2011. Banning Pod is a huge shakeup.

To be fair, I'm not necessarily saying it was wrong. Pod has been among Modern's top two or three decks for years now, and though I don't personally play enough Modern to say whether it was oppressive at big tournaments, one of Pod's foremost experts seems to agree it was correct:

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Of course, what this does for the Modern metagame is only half the story. The other half is the fact that many players have had significant investments of time and money that are no longer relevant in the competitive Modern scene. It's stories like these that indicate the biggest risk involved with world-shaking bannings like that of Birthing Pod:

 

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The appeal of eternal formats is that one can build a deck, updating it with each new set but largely forgetting about it except when a tournament comes up. Pod players, many of whom have been playing the deck for years, learned this week that Modern doesn't work like Legacy in that way. One can invest the money to purchase a deck and the time to become an expert at playing it, then have the rug pulled out at a moment's notice.

As a fan of Modern coverage, I personally like the Birthing Pod ban. I've seen the deck played so many times that it just wasn't even interesting anymore. I played a couple events with Melira Pod back in the day, but it wasn't really my jam as a player. My biggest regret is that because Pod is only really good in Modern, its legacy on Magic has been pretty much wiped away with this move. Unless and until Pod is unbanned, we really won't be seeing it around anymore.

But it's the consumer confidence in Modern that concerns me most. I've been toying with the idea of building a Modern deck on Magic Online, but that seems much less attractive in the face of such major changes. Many players will undoubtedly feel the same.

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Of course, the timing of such a massive change is more or less perfect. It will shake up the Modern pro tour significantly, which will make for a more entertaining weekend and offer many opportunities for MTG financiers (speaking of which, if you're not already an Insider here at Quiet Speculation, the days leading up to the pro tour are a great time to give the service a try). I'm all about a more entertaining pro tour, although to be fair, I would have been pretty entertained by watching Dig Through Times resolve all weekend.

The other aspect of the timing here is that we are only a few months away from Modern Masters 2015. We know that the print run will be larger but still limited, but we don't know how much larger it will really be. To me, the banning of Birthing Pod indicates that Modern Masters 2015 will have a significantly larger print run than its predecessor.

Banning Birthing Pod was likely viewed as a dangerous but necessary evil by the DCI. As LSV said in the tweet above, the banning was overdue. Wizards of the Coast knew that it would anger a portion of the playerbase (while being happy news for another portion), so the company chose the moment wisely. What better way to help players get over their anger at a banning than to widely release a badass set that will make Modern more accessible (and hopefully more affordable) to new players and spurned Pod players alike?

Of course, the $10 MSRP makes it less likely that this set will really drive down Modern prices. If the first Modern Masters is any indication, these packs will realistically sell for $15 to $20 each, and I hesitate to imagine how good a set would have to be to make such a booster pack price worth that cost. Still, new copies of cards will enter the market, and players selling them after drafts will put some downward pressure on prices.

But the real question is this: will MM15 be enough to regain Birthing Pod players' collective trust? All we can do is wait and see.

 

Shorter Pro Tour Round Times: The Other Restriction Update

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With the B&R update being the big commotion yesterday, there's a good chance that you missed this announcement. And truthfully, shortened Pro Tour round times doesn't seem like a big deal to the average player.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elixir of Immortality

This does have some application to non-pros, though. Those five minutes very likely made a world of difference to Ivan Floch's Pro Tour win. If you're a regular PTQ player or even FNM grinder then I'm sure that you felt the impact of people netdecking Floch's deck on your local metagames and round times.

I think that the impact of the extra five minutes on how long PT days last is being overstated here by WotC. The truth is that the most time is eaten up after the round clock ends. Implementing an MTGO-like chess clock would be the best way to get players to hurry up, but I'm sure we're all aware of the logistical impossibilities of this idea.

It will be interesting to see if this change will drive people away from Whip of Erebos decks for the coming Pro Tours. Lord knows that those mirrors have a way of going to time even with the fastest, most competent pilots on both sides.

Does this have an impact on MTG finance though? Possibly. If pro players deem that this change is enough of a strike against a slower deck then this will diminish the Pro Tour exposure and ultimately the popularity of certain cards and strategies. It's probably not time to sell off your Hornet Queens in a panic, but it is some food for thought.

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The discussion of GP decks versus PT decks does come up from time to time, and those five minutes were definitely a factor. I personally don't think that this is the best way to tackle the issue of long PT days, but what matters is that the people who make that call do.

Do you believe that I'm overstating the impact of this decision on Pro Tour exposure and relative demand, or is this a new tool for savvy financiers to take advantage of? Chime in in the comments!

Insider: [MTGO] Buying And Selling Your Cards on MTGO – How to Find the Best Deals

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To effectively speculate on anything, and more specifically on MTGO, you need to master two aspects. An abstract part consists in recognizing the opportunity--knowing what and when to buy or sell. A practical part consists in executing the transactions--buying and selling this position.

To answer the When and What you can count on the help of the QS community, Insider articles and the multiple topic across the forums. For MTGO-based spec especially, Mtggoldfish is the place to start for additional information. The price history of all the cards available on MTGO is accessible there. The charts of all these cards is a great source of information for past and future specs. Especially with cyclical investments such as Modern positions, it is easier than ever to track and predict price fluctuations.

With my newly introduced 100 Tix 1 Year project I provide, via real-time tweets @100T1Y, some Whats and Whens, from small bankrolls up to the one I'm running. However, a question I've been asked several times already is "How did you get these prices?", "Where do you buy your cards?" and "What bots do you use?". There is no simple answer to that, rather a routine I follow for every single spec I'm on.

Today, I'll explain the step-by-step process I use to buy and sell my cards at the best possible rates. This path is not perfect and could surely be optimized and/or extended to more bots (when it comes to looking for the best bot chain), but it will give you a base for your speculations if you were not sure where to start from.

Humans or Bots?

For both buying and selling these are your two options on MTGO--dealing with bots or dealing with humans.

Doing business with bots is the fastest way to buy and sell your cards. Bots are usually open 24/7 and will go straight to the point--buying and selling cards. Because they are able to break prices down into fractions of Tix, they have the best buying and selling prices most of the time. When it comes to more expensive cards with a bigger spread, humans might sometimes have a better deal, but it's quite rare.

The Classifieds is the MTGO marketplace where you can check and post offers. By posting your own offer you are able to set your own buying and selling prices. If you are patient enough and your prices are decent you might be able to buy and sell cards at better prices than if you had to do so with bots.

Rarely, you may find offers from humans buying and selling cards at better prices than bots. While you can theoretically get better prices this way, it might take far more time than proceeding with bots.

If you have well adjusted selling prices you could make better deals listing your cards for sale on the Classifieds, although it will take time. This option is not viable to get rid of 25 playsets in ten minutes following big news.

With less time available than in the past and because better deals with human offers are very rare, I do 99% of my transactions now with bots.

Buying

When I read or hear about a good buying opportunity, unless I'm really aware of the past and recent price movement of that card, I always check the price chart on Mtggoldfish. Whether it is a cyclical position or a Standard speculation it's always good to see what the current trend is and look back at the price history.

Check Points

If for a given card the trend has been upward for months and the current price is the highest or close to it, I investigate more to make sure buying this card now is really justified. The same is true with a card that has been losing value for months. Being at a record low is not enough to make card a good buying opportunity. I want to be as certain as possible that the price is heading up in a near future.

With cyclical positions, checking previous price variations is also going to give me a sense of what could be good selling prices. Based on past heights I know what to expect when I'll be selling these kind of cards. With this information, if I don't have at least a 50% potential profit to make I'm very unlikely to buy.

For instance, I'm totally ok with buying Gifts Ungiven but I won't commit with Daybreak Coronet although the white aura might go up anyway.

Finally, before pulling the trigger I ask myself if there isn't a better opportunity than the one I'm about to buy. These days it's hard to beat the dozen of great positions created by the MMA flashback drafts. Theros boosters look good? But can they beat an expected 200% increase in a month or two of MMA Summoner's Pact?

If all sounds good after these check points then I start looking for the best buying prices.

Finding the Best Deals

My routine here is pretty much always the same. I always compare the prices from three sources first and foremost--Mtgotraders, Goatbots and Mtgo library (mtgowikiprice.com). For more expensive cards (10 Tix and up) I also check the Classifieds, as occasionally humans beat the bots on more expensive cards.

Cardbots, AboshanBots (present on mtgowikiprice) and Cardhoarderbots use the same pricing as Mtgotraders and I also buy from them. This sometimes makes more stock available although Mtgotraders have a huge stock and it's more likely that they increase their price before they run out of stock.

Before the switch to V4 I was frequently using Supernovabots (supernovabots.com). Since last July, their prices became much less attractive. They also almost always increase their price after each copy purchased. It seems, however, that they have implemented a new version of their bots, so I guess I should check them from time to time.

For boosters only, I've also been using Agravsbots and a ClanTeam bots; they are fairly stocked with competitive prices. When you want to speculate on boosters it's important to have multiple sources to buy from and sell to.

Credits

Leaving credits on different bots should not be a problem. On average, you'll be leaving 0.5 Tix per bot chain. This may seem a big chunk of Tix if you are dealing with 30 different bot chains but it's in fact a very low price to be able to deal, for life, with these bots.

Before engaging Tix with a new bot I make sure they have a decent stock and that I'm likely to come back. I won't buy the first time but if I find myself coming back several times, because of good prices, then I commit. If your bankroll is big enough (1,000 Tix ore more) you should go ahead almost all the time, as the credits left on the bot for your first transaction are probably already covered with the potential benefit of the cards you are going to acquire.

The bot chain proposing the best prices are pretty much always the same on Mtgo Library so once you have spread some credits around you should be done with it for good. All of this implies that I'm never trying to "complete" my purchase with penny cards to minimize the credits left--I'll use them next time with more relevant cards probably.

Selling

Finding the best selling prices is similar to buying. I screen the bots mentioned above in addition to bot chains that buy cards only. Hotlist bots and CardBuyingBots, from Mtgotraders (or using Mtgotraders pricing), are two bot chains that buy only and are two great outlets for your specs. They usually buy several playsets of the same cards.

AboshanBots and Hotlist bots probably have the best buying prices on average. However, they are rather selective on the cards they buy. AboshanBots are listed on Mtgowikiprice and Hotlist bots buy the cards at the prices listed on the hotlist of Mtgotraders.com.

Instead of checking Mtgotraders hotlist on their website, and also since there are sometimes discrepancies between their list and what Hotlist bots are actually buying, I put some cards up for trade and open a trade with the Hotlist bots just to check. I also happen to do that with cards I'm not necessarily looking to sell. Knowing now how much Hotlist bots are ready to pay for a card can sometimes open the door for arbitrage situations since they are usually buying very high.

In addition to Mtggoldfish data, checking the hotlist from Mtgotraders can give you a sense of what's hot at the moment. Sometimes it's a good indicator of a card trending up, which can be confirmed by looking at the charts from Mtggoldfish.

Here, I'm really going with the best offer providing the bot has Tix to honor its price, which is not always the case (see below). Goatbots and Mtgotraders buying bots offer the advantage of being able to absorb a fairly large amount of cards quickly, although prices from Goatbots decrease after each transaction.

Bot Solvency

With all bots, but particularly with Mtgo Library, one thing to make sure before you sell your card is how solvent the bot is. Despite a great price, or even the best, if a bot doesn't have any Tix up this should raise a red flag and should make you think twice before selling.

If you've been doing several transaction in the past with this bot chain it does happen that they run out of Tix at the end of the day. But if you have never done any trade with this chain, don't sell your cards for credits. I sell cards to few bot chains without having the Tix right away, I'm still running after the tix...

 

Hopefully all these tips will allow you find the best deals and to fully enjoy the potential of your specs!

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

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Sylvain Lehoux

Sylvain started playing Mtg in 1998 and played at competitive level for more than 10 years including several GP and 3 PT. When he moved to Atlanta in 2010 for his job he sold all his cards and stopped "playing". In 2011 he turned to Mtg Online and he experimented whether it was possible to successfully speculate on this platform. Two years later and with the help of the QS community his experience has grown tremendously and investing on MTGO has proven to be greatly successful. He is now sharing the knowledge he acquired during his MTGO journey! @Lepongemagique on Twitter

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Insider: Veracity – Making Sure the Information You Act On Is Accurate

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So, this happened:

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This is the official Banned and Restricted list update announcement, excerpted from the Wizards of the Coast homepage. Don't believe me? Here's the link, check it out for yourself.

You trust me, right? It's not in my best interest to lead you astray. My credibility as a writer and podcaster relies on being credible and if I go around lying to people about important information, it weakens my credibility. I'm in the business of bringing you accurate information.

But that's just me. Other people aren't in the same business I am, they're in the business of giving you the business. And let me tell you, business is booming.

There are a lot of moves to be made now that we know what is banned and unbanned, but I want to talk about what wasn't announced.

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There were a few cards that went up in price significantly and it had nothing to do with today's actual announcement.

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"There is no doubt," one redditor wrote (I'm paraphrasing), "that given the recent spike of Bloodbraid Elf, someone has inside information." People are obsessed with "inside information" and have been for years.

It all starts with an old chestnut in the finance community, the tale of Aluren. Aluren highlights two different kinds of events in MTG Finance and why it's important to understand the nuance between both.

Aluren

Aluren is a card. It's on the Reserved List and it puts creatures into play for free. It is the cornerstone of a Legacy deck that I haven't seen played in a long time. They printed Lobber Crew two years ago, and that gave the deck a brief resurgence, but for the most part, the deck doesn't see play. It's Tier 11 but also a lot of fun to play. I mean, Lobber Crew. As a potential win condition. You can't beat that with a stick.

Still, the deck, and therefore the marquee card, sat in relative obscurity for a while. Then, suddenly, all of the copies of Aluren started to go missing. Someone was buying them for some reason. But why? There seemed to be no explanation. Sure, it was never getting reprinted and technically it mattered in terms of a deck in Legacy, but that was justification after the fact, not an explanation for the sudden spike.

Then, an explanation came.

The culprit

Imperial Recruiter, a lynchpin card in the deck, was announced as a judge foil. It was still liable to be somewhat expensive, but the availability of copies at any price was bound to renew interest in the deck, and if a playset of the card could be obtained for the same cost as one copy was before, it was likely that Aluren could be a real deck.

It ended up not mattering. The price of Aluren went up, but with no buyers at the new price, it slowly went back down. The deck never really went anywhere and Aluren became a textbook example of why not to buy into a card absent real demand. But Aluren selling out months before the announcement of Imperial Recruiter pointed to an obvious information leak. Someone had known about Recruiter coming down the pipe and had acted on the information. It was the only explanation for the Aluren spike (and subsequent plummet, absent real demand) that made any sense.

The unique thing about this case compared to other accusations of "inside information" deals with the logistics of getting this Recruiter out there. In order to get the card out to people, Wizards needs to have a company print copies of the card. This is sometimes outsourced to smaller companies that don't need to print as many copies as a full set and need to do this printing while the other cards are being printed elsewhere.

Any time you invite more people into your house, you invite more chances for information to get out. That's likely what happened here. Long before the card was announced, it had to be printed and lots of people at Wotc and the place that printed the card knew about it for months.

This is a different event that we saw this week.

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Bloodbraid Elf went stupid bananas expensive based on pure hype and speculation. The Jim Joneses of the Magic community poured some honey in the ears of their flock and they went forth and bought out the internet. After all, Bloodbraid Elf was BOUND to get unbanned, right? Still, there was no concrete proof for this. I was vocal about not wanting to bet my money on Bloodbraid Elf, but the card spiked out of control. It was the most requested card on PucaTrade, signaling everyone on that site that there was a run on the card. Even people in the finance industry who didn't think the card wasn't getting unbanned couldn't convey that information without noting that the card was out of control.

A lot of people are saying that there was no inside information here, but the problem with that is that there were people with lots and lots of copies of Bitterblossom a year ago claiming they had inside information. People being tipped off to the Bitterblossom unbanning and arming themselves with copies, some which went for $100 the say of the unbanning, left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. Claiming there is no information leak is tough when the people who had Bitterblossoms claim they were tipped off.

Still, it's easier to keep things under wraps if all you have to do is keep it quiet until you make an announcement. Contracting a company to print cards is one thing, pointing out people can play with copies of a card they already have is another. There is still doubt that anyone has inside information about unbannings, or ever did, and the mysterious run on Bloodbraid Elf that turned out just to be runaway speculation bears that out.

This is a case of mass hysteria more than anything else. People forgot what Elf did to Modern in a few short years and they already want it back. Losing Pod and gaining Elf is just swapping one format-ruining deck for another. No thank you. As much as I like the idea of Boom // Bust Naya, players can't be trusted. They'll build Jund, and they'll build a ton of it.

If you lost money on Bloodbraid Elf by buying at the peak of the hysteria, I don't feel sorry for you.

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I'm not sure which hinged more on gullibility and a lack of critical thought, the case of Bloodbraid Elf, or the case of Stoneforge Mystic.

If you bought Stoneforge Mystic, I really don't feel sorry for you.

Filmed using a Nikon Spy potato.

This didn't pass the sniff test to me, but when it "leaked" Sunday night, the internet went nuts, and bought every copy of Stoneforge Mystic they could find. The font is all wrong on this and in the age of computers, everyone can take a screenshot and just post a clear picture. The cameraphone pic was clearly done to make it look like this was "smuggled" out of WotC smuggled up a Bothan Spy's butt or hidden inside a hollowed out book.

If you believed this, you don't deserve to have the money you lost, especially since this wasn't even the first obviously fake announcement of the week.

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Fblthp brought us an update that heralded the banning of Treasure Cruise, though not in as many formats as we ultimately saw. Do you believe everything you read on the internet? Be selective, folks. Information reported here on Quiet Speculation and in my articles more specifically is designed to give you value. My motives for writing what I do is to make you all money (or help you make it yourself) and I'm motivated by that goal, not by trying to trick you into buying Stoneforge Mystics from me for an inflated price.

Someone made a lot of money on Stoneforge Mystics that had no business going up, and it may very well have been the same person who posted the fake "screenshot" that prompted the buyout.

Think about the sources of information before you act. It's not always so clearly a case of inside information when a card like Bloodbraid Elf spikes because, as we saw, that ultimately amounted to nothing. Don't buy motivated by faked screenshots that claim to be inside information, no matter how grainy the cellphone picture is. You could be left holding the bag and getting laughed at with no money to buy Grave-Trolls and Bobs like a good financier.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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MTGO Is Actually Doing a Pretty Good Job with the Cube Draft Schedule, Not So Much with Banned and Restricted Updates

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A little more than a month ago, I questioned why Cube variants were available on MTGO so infrequently. Based on the last 60 days or so, though, I think Cube is in a reasonable place on Magic Online. 

First, we had the Legacy Cube debut on November 19 through December 10. Then the Holiday Cube hit only a week later, running from December 17 through January 5. Wizards of the Coast only made us wait nine more days for the return of the Legacy Cube, which hit again on January 14 and will run through January 28.

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I can't deny: having only 16 days of around 70 be Cube-free on MTGO is pretty good. It's really good, in fact, and if this kind of schedule keeps up, it will show that WOTC has really listened to the grievances of drafters who just want to enjoy their favorite format with ease. Good on you, WOTC, for making so much Cube a reality.

On the other hand, we have the already-much-discussed Banned and Restricted List update from this morning. Jason wrote a really good summary of these updates, and my thoughts on the bannings and unbannings mirror his in many ways.

What I want to mention here is when this all comes into effect. If you look at the official announcement, you will see that the MTGO effective date for these updates is five days later than the paper effective date: January 28 versus January 23. For players looking to test for the pro tour primarily using Magic Online, this is a huge disadvantage compared to those who have a local testing team to work with.

There's no real reasoning behind such a discrepancy that I can see. If it's a coding issue for MTGO, WOTC should have started the process five days earlier to get things in line with the paper game. Otherwise, it's just an arbitrary difference that has a real, negative impact on players the world over.

The good thing is that WOTC has a track record of paying attention to player feedback and implementing it (if sometimes a little slowly). If you think that banning and unbannings should take effect in the paper game and MTGO on the same day, make sure WOTC hears your feedback. Maybe we can get this discrepancy addressed by the next round of bannings. Or, you know, by 2016. You never know with MTGO.

On Literally Not Being Able To Even – Banned and Restricted List Update 2015

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OK, the B&R update just went up and it's not quite what anyone expected.

 

 

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First, some of this doesn't matter. Worldgorger Dragon could be annoying, but I don't think it will be the problem that it was when it was banned a long time ago. The combo deck is not particularly robust or fun to play but some players love it. It's likely fine. Dragon combo can make the game end in a draw sometimes or just get really annoying, but there are annoying combos in Legacy already.

Golgari Grave-Troll being banned in Modern reflected a fundamental lack of understanding about what a Modern dredge deck would need to work on Wizards' part in a lot of views. It's unbanning seems relatively benign. I'm sure the price will go up and I'm sure it isn't deserved. I have a bunch of Izzet Vs. Golgari decks sitting on a shelf and I hope I don't have to pop them just because of this.

Gifts Ungiven being restricted in Vintage was a little silly and with so few decks even running 1 copy, it's good to allow the decks that want to run it the option of running a ton. Vintage didn't need shaken up, but it got it.

On the bans side, holy knee-jerk, Batman. Treasure Cruise wouldn't have gotten more thoroughly erased from history if it had personally pissed off Stalin. A Modern and Legacy ban and a Vintage restriction? Clearly Wizards was tired of those shenanigans despite the card only being allowed in those formats for a short time.

Birthing Pod seems knee-jerk as well. Pod was always a dominant deck in Modern and its banning seems... ill-advised, especially not coupled with a relevant unbanning. No, I don't consider Grave-Troll a relevant unbanning. However, I hope people brew with Troll. There are a few cards that have upside in the wake of this unbanning and QS Insiders were treated to our thoughts on the matter a few minutes ago. Pod leaving opens up a power vacuum in Modern and it's unclear what will fill it. I could see Pod being unbanned soon.

The run-up on Bloodbraid Elf made it seem there was insider info that leaked, but it was actually just hysteria around what people saw as a safe unban. Don't buy into hype, folks, especially speculative hype based on no evidence. I wrote on the Insider side recently about how the tendency for stores to cancel orders on spiking cards means you need to bet your money a week in advance at least. Lots of people bet on Bloodbraid Elf and lost big-time. Let that be a lesson.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Banning, Free, ModernTagged , , , , , 18 Comments on On Literally Not Being Able To Even – Banned and Restricted List Update 2015

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Insider: Hold Winners, Sell Losers – Prepping for an Exciting Spring

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A few weeks ago I wrote an exceptionally bullish article, calling a bottom in many Magic card prices during the winter swoon. By looking at historical price charts, I developed a theory that suggested many cards seeing greater play would finally receive the price bounces they deserved.

In many cases, this was an accurate thesis. I specifically called out Dual Lands as strong targets, and David’s email last week indicated some of these are finally bottoming. Later I called out Stoneforge Mystic as a strong pick-up. That certainly panned out as well:

Stoneforge

I originally liked this card because of its significant play in Legacy, but I recently came across a new angle.

The new white Commander deck is practically built around Stoneforge’s synergy with equipment. In fact, I can think of no other card that screams “add me” to the white Commander deck than this one. My guess is that this additional demand is having a significant influence on movement.

Either way, I’ll take it. And I still see $30+ for Stoneforge in the near future.

So it’s clear that some cards are, in fact, bottoming. We’re also seeing renewed buying interest in casual cards like Gilt-Leaf Archdruid and Sliver Hive.

But not everything is behaving so bullishly. And with all the buying I’ve been doing lately, I’m left wondering what to do with both my winners and my losers.

Do I wait for the price spikes I anticipate happening in spring? Do I sell certain cards now to free up cash to enable more buying? I’ll break down my approach this week as I plan for an exciting spring in MTG Finance.

The Winners

In order to boost excitement, I’ll first examine some recent winners. These are cards I’ve bought into – many as recently as one to three months ago – that have since appreciated in value. Stoneforge Mystic is just one example, but another I can mention would be Foil Summoning Trap. Foil Summoning Trap was a spec I bought into after reading about it in the QS Forums.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Summoning Trap

I bought a few played copies on TCG Player for between $1 and $2, and these now buy list to ABU Games for $3+ and are over $4 on TCG Player. This may seem like a minimal gain. In reality, the absolute dollar gain on each position may be tiny, but the percentage is respectable.

Either way, there has been a number of cases like these for me. Situations where I’ve purchased a handful of a cheap card and watched it gradually rise in price.

What challenges my current situation is whether or not I want to sell out of all these small gains. Thanks to fees and shipping, it’s likely I won’t see much profit. But I know the cards I bought are worth more now than they were when I pulled the trigger.

Kuldotha Forgemaster is another such example. Again we have a very powerful card that has demonstrated value in Commander formats, with a little bit of Eternal play. As a result, the card has surged in value from $0.50 to $2 in a few short months.

Forgemaster

As before, I didn’t buy in at the exact bottom. So while my paper gains look terrific – especially from a percentage standpoint – these dollar gains are not really realizable at this time because of fees and shipping associated with selling cards.

Because of this greater trend, I have come to a conclusion.

My strategy for now will be to hold all of my small winners. Their gains have been too tiny to justify cashing out. And, if you’ll notice, the slope on these price curves are incredibly steep and positive in recent days. This suggests we aren’t close to leveling out yet, and we are striving for a much higher price ceiling. This, combined with profits I can’t extract, tells me it’s time to hold.

Note that there is risk in holding some of these cards because they may be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, but that’s still a few months out. At our current growth rate, I anticipate there will be a wide enough window to bail on some of these cards before MMA 2015 is fully spoiled.

The Losers

Okay, so I’ve decided it’s too premature to sell my winners. They are just now turning a corner and should net me sizable profits in roughly two or three months. So how about my losing specs? Should I cut those losses now so I can free up cash?

Well, let’s first examine what my big losers are. The two most sufferable MTG investments I made lately were Scavenging Ooze and various Theros temples.

Scavenging Ooze

This one time all-star has been on a very steady decline since it peaked in September 2013. It has been a painful journey as I watch my initial $10 investment dwindle further and further, essentially reducing by half in value. Now I’m sitting on a handful of $5 copies, still wondering if I should hold for a bounce or cut losses.

Looking at the price trajectory, I am inclined to cut losses and bail. The card isn’t seeing an exceptionally high amount of play in Modern and Legacy, usually included as a 1-of. What’s more, I’m not sure if there’s a reason this card will suddenly see more play any time soon. I personally have no need to include more than one copy in my Modern Pod list.

It kills me that buy lists have shrank so significantly, but it may truly be time for me to move on. The price trajectory over the last couple months has been steadily decreasing, with no bounce in sight.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

The same trajectory applies to some of these Theros temples I’m sitting on. Temple of Abandon is probably my biggest disappointment.

Abandon

When this card began its bounce after the release of Khans of Tarkir, I truly believed I had a homerun. I even scrambled to buy a few more copies in the $3 range, anticipating a price target twice as high. That never happened, and now I’m stuck holding a bunch of $1.50 temples.

Now I’m left to wonder: do I sell these now and eat my losses, or do I hold out for a potential rebound? There are two factors at play here.

On the upside, Fate Reforged could reshape the Standard format a bit. Should a new strategy using the R/G color combination emerge, this temple could see a small bounce.

On the downside, time is very limited as Standard rotation looms. While that is still many months away, each passing month yields less time for this card to ever have its chance to shine again.

I think my decision will be to wait and see what Fate Reforge does to Standard. But if it doesn’t look like R/G strategies will become more popular, I’m cutting losses and bailing. I do NOT want to be left holding any temples when they leave Standard. Their utility in other formats is far too limited to justify a long term hold.

You Gotta Know When To Hold Them…

One of the hardest parts of investing in the stock market is not in knowing what to buy and when, but rather knowing when to sell.

Clearly, this concept translates to MTG Finance as well. I’m sitting on a very diverse portfolio – some nice gains as well as some painful losses. My struggle, it seems, is determining what to sell and when.

My initial inclination is to sell my winners, banking nice profits and freeing up cash for future speculation. But I think we’re in a strange place with MTG Finance. If spring brings us another surge, then selling cards with momentum would not be the play here. Clearly a card like Gilt-Leaf Archdruid has some momentum behind it. Even foil Summoning Trap has plenty of upside remaining. Why sell cards with such great growth potential?

Conversely, if losers have a downward trajectory and there are no anticipated catalysts ahead, why hold onto them? While it is always painful to eat losses, we shouldn’t let our entry price influence what we sell and when. It may take five years for Scavenging Ooze to hit $10 again. And let’s face it--by then, it could be reprinted in an Event Deck and in Modern Masters 2019.

So I’ve got my strategy. Cards with positive momentum – many casual staples, Modern staples (watch out for reprints!), and certainly Legacy staples – are all holds for me.

Meanwhile, cards that have suffered a lot lately – primarily Standard cards with little life in them – are largely sells.

Every once in a while I manage to make it to an actual MTG event. Perhaps I can unload some of my winners and losers via trades, avoiding fees and shipping. If this opportunity arises, I will certainly take advantage. In these cases, I wouldn’t mind unloading either my winners or my losers, as long as I’m acquiring cards I believe have larger future upside.

But in the meantime, while I deal mostly in buying and selling, this is going to be my primary strategy going forward.

Does this strategy make sense? What do you do with your winners and losers? How do you determine when it’s time to sell each?

Share your thoughts below in the comments field. The more we brainstorm strategies together, the more we’ll all learn!

…

Sigbits

As usual, everyone is buying up cards in anticipation of potential un-banning. I tried this “game” once a while ago… and lost miserably. Apparently others haven’t learned this same lesson. Either that, or they have some inside info I lack.

  • Bloodbraid Elf has been the top target. SCG is completely sold out of this card, although their price is still only $2.49 and $2.69 for Planechase and Alara Reborn printings. This card is immensely dangerous. Should she be unbanned, it could completely shake up Modern. Maybe that’s what Wizards wants… who knows?
  • Survival of the Fittest is another card that has shot up lately. I don’t think this is because people anticipate a Legacy unbanning. The card was far too problematic while it was legal in Legacy. But, nonetheless, this banned card has been hot lately, and SCG is sold out at $38.25. Expect this one to be restocked closer to $49.99.
  • Another card I keep hearing about is Ancestral Vision. This one is also not likely to be unbanned in Modern. Alongside Treasure Cruise, these two sorceries could combine to make an overpowering combination for blue decks. Star City Games still has a few copies of these in stock. Though, it is worth noting they are sold out of the original printing with a price tag of $8.75.

Insider: Intentional Savagery – The Subtle Art of Cracking Boxes

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Confession: I'm a box cracking man. For me, each sealed booster box is like a self-contained Christmas.

For me, every new expansion means that I'm going to drop $200-500 on booster boxes just to rip open and fill out playsets. I'm a savage.

I'm often asked, "Why don't you save them to draft?" And I have an answer: because they're my packs and I don't want a bunch of barnacles taking away my Christmas morning.

Also - I'm an adult and I can afford to buy three boosters on the rare occasion that a bunch of people want to get together to draft.

Sure, every booster box is going to have those crappy gifts that you don't really want, like socks and underwear. Thanks Mom. But somewhere in that booster box is going to be a foil rare... maybe two. And there's likely to be plenty of other spice in the mix.

Strike While the Iron's Hot

Don't get me wrong.I'm not always in the business of lighting money on fire.

In general, there are only two times when I condone intentionally buying booster boxes: at a set's release, and one year after release.

Obviously I'll make exceptions for cheap booster boxes that judges are offloading from working events, as it's hard to pass up any booster box with an $80 price tag.

When a set's first released, the cards are always worth more. You can look up the historical data and you'll find that virtually every set released has had an "average value" greater than the price of a box at release.

I have a general life rule to never pay $100 for something I can get for $80. Over time, as more and more cards are opened, the average price of the cards contained within is going to go down and the expected value of a box is going to dip below the $100 retail we've all grown accustomed to.

This is why I can never condone cracking boxes more than a week or so after release.

At roughly a year after a set's release, the sets go out of print and the supply starts to dry up. I'm fine picking up a couple boxes at this point to throw in the closet - but never to crack.

Expected Value

The expected value of a box is usually just the average value of all rares and mythic rares contained within. So, at this point we need some additional information to make an informed decision. You can typically expect four mythic rares and 32 rares per box. I usually don't include uncommon price data because it's typically harder to capitalize on uncommons at release than rares.

Using Star City Games as a reference point for preorder prices, I've calculated the average rare and mythic rare value:

  • Rares = $1.40
  • Mythics = $13.04

Assuming 32 rares at $1.40 and four mythics at $13.04, we can expect the rares in any given box to be worth $96.96. Unfortunately, Fate Reforged is not full of valuable uncommons like we saw in Khans of Tarkir, so I'm not going to throw much "value" into the calculation for this set.

As a player, I always like to have a playset of commons and uncommons, so I'll add $5 to the first two boxes opened. But beyond that, commons and uncommons have little to no value to add to this set.

That brings our EV to $101.96 per box for the first two boxes, slightly above retail.

But wait! There's more!

Fate Reforged is following the model we first saw involving the shock lands in Dragon's Maze--randomly inserted in the basic land slot are the Khans of Tarkir fetch lands. Based on the expectation of one fetch land per box, and the average price being $15.65, we can bump that expected value to increase to $117.61.

While this expected value  is certainly not the best we've ever seen, it is enough to justify opening boxes rather than just buying the singles you need. You can even throw a couple "entertainment value" dollars onto the box if you just enjoy cracking packs as much as I do.

Shamanistic Revelation

If you're able to get your local shop early enough, there's a good chance you'll be given one of these as well. These promos are usually good for adding $3-5 to the expected value of your box, with breakouts like Goblin Rabblemaster returning much, much more. You can also figure in that you're going to get at least one foil rare, but it's value can range from barely a dollar to as high as $80.

Pulling the Trigger

At this point, you know that you can expect to get your money back out of a box of Fate Reforged, but should you pull the trigger?

That's ultimately comes down to what type of player you are. For example, right now I have very little interest in playing most of the decks in Standard, so I don't need the Ugin, the Spirit Dragons and the Monastery Mentors of the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Mentor

I do find myself wanting to playing with Soulflayer and Tasigur, the Golden Fang, but neither of those cards will break the bank. Is it still worth it for me to buy in?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulflayer
There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

The biggest factor in making this decision is the liquidity of my collection, or how easily I'm able to move these cards.

I'm not a TCG user and I'm not big on using eBay, so I find myself primarily being a trader.

Being able to trade away the new cards at set release is critical to recouping my investment. 90% of these cards will never be higher in price, and they will never be in as much demand as that first FNM.

Hitting the trade tables release weekend is a great way to trade your volatile wares into something more stable. Deciding what your long-term collection goals are and trading into any eternal format staple is often a good direction to move. But just trading into the previous set's "hot rares" is also a good way to preserve value, as those cards have already taken most of their price hit.

FNM is a great place to unload many of the terrible rares in a set because you get a good cross section of players, and one man's trash is another man's treasure. Many players want to try out the bad cards at FNM, so feel free to indulge them.

I'll be looking to trade Fate Reforged rares at release into fetch lands, Siege Rhino, Wingmate Roc, Anafenza, the Foremost and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant. With a new set released, the influx of these Khans cards will slow and their prices are likely to be stabilized with the possibility of climbing.

The other main channel I use to move rares upon set release is Pucatrade. Being a true junkie, I'm usually at the local game store when the doors open and immediately return home to list and ship out as many of these cards as possible.

Doing it this way I miss out on many of the price spikes you typically see the weekend of the Pro Tour, but I also lock in my profits (shoutout to Sigmund) so that I don't have to spend time messing with the cards at a later date. As a player that has intermittent contact with the day to day changes in card prices, I prefer to leave my collection with as few "volatile stocks" as possible.

Fate Reforged is on the cusp of what I would consider a "safe bet" when it comes to box cracking. Next week I'll give the Wheel of Fortune a spin and rip open a couple boxes and share my results here.

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