| Quiet Speculation

Why Doesn’t the New MTGO Legacy Cube Have More KTK Cards?

Posted on November 15, 2014November 14, 2014 by Danny Brown

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I covered the update to the Magic Online Cube recently, but I only just recently went over the new list in depth. By my count*, there are only nine cards in the new cube list from Khans of Tarkir. As someone who has drafted cubes many times, I wouldn't have minded seeing more new cards to mess around with in the format.

*Disclaimer: Because the list is not sortable by set, this was done by literally counting the cards, and it's quite possible I missed a couple.

The cards added to the list are the following:

Cards from KTK Added to MTGO Cube

White

Blue

Black

Red

Multicolored

I don't disagree with any of the cards above. What I disagree with are the omissions. In my opinion, the MTGO Cube should place a special emphasis on trying out new cards. From WOTC's perspective, this is a way to maintain focus on the new set, even in a format like Cube. From a player's perspective, I want to play with the new cards and see how good they are in my favorite format. It seems like it should be a no-brainer, but nine cards out of 600 is only 1.5 percent.

What other cards from Khans of Tarkir should have been included? Let's check out a few possibilities.

White

I like that Herald of Anafenza can be just another one-drop in an aggro deck (though not a great attacker until turn four), but can also be a win condition for a grindy control deck. This isn't overwhelmingly powerful, but I would have liked to test it out.

It's often not very hard to figure out what morphs your opponent is playing in Cube, and I was looking forward to increasing the number of possibilities with KTK. Unfortunately, only Ashcloud Phoenix was added, which is a shame. This would have been a good one for white weenie decks, which seem like they got a lot more support in this iteration.

This should have been included based on power level, but its omission is defensible given that the list includes Banishing Light, Oblivion Ring, and Journey to Nowhere.

Wingmate Roc could go either way, since there's only room for so many five-drops, but it would have been a cool one to try out.

Blue

If we're ever going to clone a planeswalker in Limited, it's going to happen in Cube. Why not give us the opportunity?

This could have really messed with the Voidmage Prodigy/Willbender dichotomy, but I guess R&D opted to just remove all three.

It's a little shocking that this was omitted. Come on, Wizards. Drawing cards is a beautiful thing, so let me do more of it.

Black

The mana cost may just be too high even with delve, but this seems like it has potential in Cube and it would have been cool to try to make it work.

What a great build-around-me that was just completely ignored. Bummer. This is another card that will probably only be played to good effect in Limited in Cube, but you'll have to save that for your kitchen table.

Black aggro gets a ton of support in this list, with many different one-drops to boot. There's a good chance this is just too weak, but with so many black one-drops, Mardu Skullhunter may be better than it looks.

Red

There's a couple of close ones, particularly Jeering Instigator, but I'm basically okay with red. Note that four red cards were added to the MTGO list from KTK, where the other colors got between zero and two cards.

Green

Green is the color that got zero new cards from KTK. It's hard to justify that when we have these options:

This is such a solid card. There's no reason to add Seeker of the Way and not add Heir of the Wilds. I might go so far as to say Heir is just better.

Another morph that could have muddied up the unknown-information waters, and worth including on power level, too. This is a surprising and disappointing omission.

I just thought this was a snap-include, but with so many turn-one mana dorks and Lotus Cobra as competition, maybe it's just not? It's on deck for inclusion in my own cube with its next update, that's for sure.

Multicolored

With so few slots for three-color spells, I'm not as aghast at the only multicolored KTK card being Sorin, Solemn Visitor. You just can't make room for three-color charms and Mantis Riders. Maybe Sagu Mauler is worthy of consideration, but it's probably not good enough.

Lands

No new lands here, but considering the Onslaught fetches were already included, that's not a huge surprise. The tri-lands might have been worth a try, but without a strong three-color theme, they may be too weak. There's not a good set of lands to cut, so unless WOTC had wanted to make room for ten more lands, they may just not have a place.

The new MTGO Cube looks great—a huge improvement over the last few iterations. Just a few more cards from Khans of Tarkir would have been nice, and the ones above seem like a good place to start. Any that both WOTC and I have omitted that you think are arguable includes? Sound off below.

Possession Is Nine-Tenths of MTG

Posted on November 14, 2014November 17, 2014 by Danny Brown

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In my role at BrainstormBrewery.com, I've noticed that 90 percent of editing is fixing commas and apostrophes. Be it the differences between its and it's and its' (the last of which isn't even a thing), or my strong belief in the Oxford comma (I give a $&@#), this is the glamorous job I get to handle nearly every day. It's truly exhilarating stuff.

It's also made me realize that most people don't really have a clue about using possessive apostrophes. And I can understand why: in elementary school, I remember pretty clearly my teacher telling the class that when showing possession in a word ending with "S", we use only an apostrophe. If your public education was like my public education, then our teachers' lessons (see what I did there?) probably stopped there.

But they shouldn't have! If a proper name ends in "S", then we add an apostrophe and another "S". So if I was to tell you that Brahms's first cello sonata is a badass piece of music, I would say that Brahms's first cello sonata is a badass piece of music.

Thankfully, Wizards of the Coast has Del Laugel, the senior editor for MTG (and wife of Randy Buehler—which, in case you ever wondered, is the reason Buehler is not back on the Pro Tour circuit despite not working for WOTC since 2009). Laugel leads a small team of editors in a huge undertaking: editing every card, insert, piece of packaging material, and anything else related to MTG products. Magic's editorial team does great work, as evidenced by the fact that something like this is so exceedingly rare:

It's hard to point out errors on MTG cards because the editing team is so on top of its game. And because Laugel knows what she's doing, she ensures that MTG uses apostrophes correctly. Want proof? Here you go:

I like to give credit where credit is due, and today, that credit goes to Del Laugel.

Insider: Commander 2014 and You – WOTC’s Changing Reprint Strategy and How to Adapt

Posted on November 14, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers! The sentiment from my fellow writers this week appears to be a bit more dour than I'd prefer, so lets try and find some good out of the Commander 2014 printings.

Sure, they reprinted some oddball cards that many of us didn't expect:

Wurmcoil Engine
Goblin Welder
Black Sun's Zenith
Grave Titan
Crypt Ghast

But just as importantly there were some cards we thought might show up and didn't. This list includes

Damnation
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Phyrexian Obliterator
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Sheoldred, Whispering One
Doubling Season
Oracle of Mul Daya
Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger
Vampiric Tutor
Demonic Tutor
Enlightened Tutor
Worldly Tutor
Sylvan Tutor

With the exception of the first four, the value for the remainder of the cards all comes from the EDH market. These are the types of cards that can easily find a home in any commander deck of the appropriate color and yet they didn't show up. So the sky isn't exactly falling on MTG finance/speculation. Sure if you had a pile of Wurmcoil's in your spec box you took a pretty big hit, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

Lessons to Learn

1. Diversify - There's a reason that stock brokers tend to harp on this concept. By keeping your portfolio diverse you don't take as big of a hit when one stock does poorly (or in our case when a card gets reprinted and plunges in value).

2. Nothing is safe - With the exception of the reserved list, every card in Magic is reprintable by Wizards of the Coast. They are in the business to make money and if reprinting a few cards will help sell a set or product they would be smart to do so. This also means that we, as speculators, can not longer view reprintable cards as "safe investments". With the shift by WoTC to do away with Core sets and increase the number of "blocks" per year, we will see even more cards reprinted than ever before.

3. Magic cards aren't like stocks - They aren't regulated by any official source (outside of WoTC), their supply is controlled completely by one source (discounting fakes obviously), and that source is a business that makes money off of them, and will act according to this interest.

4. WoTC is pushing Commander - With the release of the third set of Commander decks (and it looking to be a yearly thing from now on), WoTC clearly understands that the EDH crowd is a hungry market that will buy a good amount of product. This implies that cards whose demand derives mostly from Commander players have a higher likelihood of being reprinted.

5. WoTC isn't afraid of putting Eternal-minded cards into the Commander product. However, at least with this past round they did tone it down from the likes of True-Name Nemesis (a four-of maindeck powerhouse) to something like Containment Priest (a one- to three-of sideboard card).

Applying the Lessons

The next question is what to do with what we've learned.

As with any investment strategy, we must remain flexible. While it's always smart to have a goal with your investments, it's not wise to remain so attached to that goal that you end up suffering losses or missing other opportunities simply by remaining rigid.

Reprints will happen. As stated, unless it's on the Reserved List it can be reprinted and if it will sell product, you can expect it to. This means that going deep on any particular spec carries greater risk than previously thought. (I say this because in all actuality WoTC has always had the ability to reprint cards it was just that we as speculators/buyers/sellers expected them to hold back more).

New Legacy cards will likely continue to show up in supplemental product as a way to help sell it. The benefit of this is that the other cards in the deck will often end up "deflated" in price as Eternal players buy the sealed product, take their one card and try to unload the others.

If you want a great example, look at the price of Nekusar, the Mindrazer--one of the most popular generals from the last block of commander product. His existence caused spikes across the board in Wheel of Fortune effects...and yet he himself can be picked up for less than $1.

Cards linked to a specific plane, character or story line are not safe from reprint simply because they don't "fit the theme" of any particular Commander deck. Neither are cards with set-specific keywords (like Extort on Crypt Ghast).

Just because some cards in a cycle show up does not mean that the whole cycle will. In theory one could have learned this from any of the previous commander releases. 2011 saw Austere Command as the sole Command reprinted, 2013 saw just Inferno Titan from the Titan cycle and Blue Sun's Zenith from the Zenith cycle.

However, we do know WoTC likes to complete cycles, and in 2014 we got Sun/Grave/Frost Titan from that cycle (given Primeval's ban) to finish the Titan cycle as well as Black Sun's Zenith and White Sun's Zenith (leaving Green and Red as the only outstanding Zeniths not included in a Commander product).

Many speculators expected WoTC to use the Commander product as a way to re-introduce additional copies of expensive Modern cards to the format. While the reprinting of Wurmcoil has likely tanked the price, we expected more cards like it. The fact that WoTC didn't include them does imply that they are concerned with tanking card values too quickly (even at the cost of extra product sales), which is a good sign for us.

Commander 2014 was the first Commander product to add new planeswalkers. While they have occasionally reprinted existing ones (Garruk Wildspeaker in 2011) this is the first instance in which they created new ones just for the product.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see this trend continue (though it's less likely that they'll do one per deck). It's also important to note that with the exception of Daretti, all the new ones were five or more mana, implying that WoTC won't have too much trouble keeping any new ones powerful as they'll just slap a high CMC on them to keep them out of the eternal spotlight.

WoTC is trying to keep the product more balanced to prevent another Mindseize problem (in which stores were selling out of Mindseize's but other decks were left to rot on the shelves). The easiest solution to this is to make sure that either all of them are desirable or none of them are--obviously only the former makes fiscal sense.

It would be extremely challenging to predict what the playerbase would view as "balanced", so the play by WoTC was to make sure that they didn't have too much value in any one particular deck. (The red one is currently selling above MSRP, but I expect that with Wurmcoil's price continuing to drop it will eventually reach an equilibrium point).

Grand Prix New Jersey

I will be at GP New Jersey (I actually fly out tonight) so if anyone runs into me, definitely say hello and introduce yourself. I love talking to people about MTG and finance.

Insider: Dealing with the Delver/Burn Metagame – Assessing Cards Whose Stock Has Gone Up

Posted on November 14, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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Treasure Cruise has warped Modern in a big way. I've written about it before, expressing my firm belief that a banning will happen eventually. I don't necessarily want that to happen, as nothing feels quite as good in MTG as drawing a bunch of cards at minimal cost, but I think it probably will.

Still, the question remains: what if it isn't banned? Or what if WOTC decides that it needs to be given much more time before pulling the trigger on such an action? Then the question becomes how one adapts to the metagame that's evolved since Cruise's printing.

That metagame consists of an overwhelming number of B/R Delver decks and Burn decks splashing blue for Treasure Cruise. In response to all these Delver shenanigans, Forked Bolt recently gained about 600 percent in value, as Corbin wrote about here. Given that the card can kill Delver of Secrets, Snapcaster Mage, Monastery Swiftspear, Young Pyromancer, and elemental tokens, it's pretty clear that this massive jump in value was due almost entirely to this new metagame.

So whether or not Treasure Cruise is banned soon, in a year, or never, players have to deal with it in the meantime, and there may be financial opportunities there. Let's talk about some of the cards that are good in this brave new metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Remand

Ryan Bushard brought this up not long ago on Brainstorm Brewery, and though I don't know where the card's ceiling is, it's pretty clear that the Duel Deck printing did not completely kill its value. Remand is in an interesting spot against Delver and Burn decks. On one hand, using this on Treasure Cruise is awesome—your opponent's cards still get exiled, and a lot of times that means there will be no follow-up Cruise the next turn.

On the other hand, Remand is pretty horrible against the rest of both of those decks. Countering one-mana burn spells accomplishes very little, and against a Young Pyromancer, you may actually be able giving your opponent value by Remanding a spell. When most of your opponent's deck is made up of one- and two-mana spells, Remand is a little underwhelming.

But it's so good against Treasure Cruise, and it's also good against a number of other decks in the format. It also fits into the now-dominant B/R Delver deck, which may increase its amount of play. I don't think a sudden and large spike is in the cards, but this should regain any value it lost upon being reprinted, at least until (and if) we see it Modern Masters 2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bow of Nylea

Bow of Nylea is a fantastic sideboard card in this metagame. With one mode saying, "Destroy target Insectile Aberration" and another saying, "Target opponent discards a burn spell," this is a perfect answer to all the Delver and Burn running around.

The biggest downside here is that it's pretty slow. At five mana for its first activation, Burn decks may have already killed you, and Delver can just Remand it all day while smacking you with insects and elementals. If you have faster defenses that can get you to this, though, there's a good chance you just win after activating it for the first time.

With copies as low as 21 cents on TCGplayer, the risk on Bow is small and the upside is... well, also probably reasonably small. Being from a recent, large fall set certainly lowers this card's potential ceiling, but it can't hurt to grab copies as throw-ins on your trades.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon's Claw

Speaking of quick defense, Dragon's Claw is becoming a Modern staple, which is hilarious for those of us who have tried to explain to new players why the lucky charms are so bad.

With approximately one million printings and being an uncommon, it's unlikely this does anything crazy. At the same time, you can get a bunch for 10 cents each, and if this becomes a four-of in every Modern sideboard, it shouldn't be hard to double up to a buylist the next time Modern becomes the community's main focus. Brainstorm Brewery's Jared Yost suggests foils might be a good buy, but you'll have to take his word for it—I am not a foil guy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

It's probably about time to start acquiring Scavenging Oozes. The card is at its floor, and though I've hoped for a while that it would go even lower once rotated from Standard, it appears to have bottomed out where it is.

Ooze is good in most green decks, providing main-deck incidental lifegain and graveyard hate on an efficient beater. That incidental lifegain and graveyard hate is especially important in this new metagame, where you are likely to get either burned out or cruised over. This card addresses both of those problems while killing your opponents, and seems like a crucial part of competing with green decks.

Cheap Sweepers?

Three sweepers come to mind as potential foils to this format's boogeymen.

Pyroclasm and Volcanic Fallout deal with Delver's creature suite nicely, killing literally everything in the deck (unless the opponent responds to trigger prowess on Monastery Swiftspear). Pyroclasm is obviously the more efficient card, but Fallout may be the best way to ensure your sweeper resolves.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

Engineered Explosives had flirted with $30 before being reprinted in Modern Masters, crashing its prices and leaving it at around $6 now. Casting it for zero mana sweeps the board of elemental tokens and Insectile Aberrations, which is significant. Casting it for more can allow you to hit B/R Delver's other creatures, all of which are zero, one, or two mana. This is a powerful sideboard card in Modern and Legacy both and is currently at its price floor (at least for the last few years).

Adapting Until We Don't Need to Anymore

It's easy to act like Treasure Cruise is on the fast-track to banning and not worry about how to beat it. But it could be a while, and if you're interested in beating them and not joining them, you may want to consider your options. I think the above cards have real potential to take back the format from B/R Delver. Cards like Relic of Progenitus and Gut Shot may also be worth looking at, but those seem a little weak for Modern in general.

Only time will tell how this format will turn out after Khans of Tarkir came in and shook everything up. Until then, all we can do is try to figure out how to beat multiple Ancestral Recalls in most of our matches.

Insider: Khans vs. Theros, Two Months In – Comparing Pack EV to Predict Singles Prices

Posted on November 14, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Okay, fine. I know we’re not technically two months in, but with Standard finally becoming settled (and healthy at the same time!), this feels like a good time as any to bring out this piece.

This is something I’ve been thinking about for awhile now. There was so much hype when Khans of Tarkir was released (fetches!) that it was hard to tell how much was hype (best draft evar!) and how much was true quality that would last. There were shortages early on, and stores like mine were unable to get enough Khans in to keep up with the demand. I haven’t seen that happen since Magic 2010, and it’s certainly a great sign for any block.

But now the dust has settled, and the real question sinks in. Did any of that matter financially? After all, if it did, we have an analogue the next time something like this happens. If it didn’t, then that’s certainly something worth finding out about as well.

So, let’s do that.

Top-down

Theros released on Sept. 27, 2013, while Khans of Tarkir released on Sept. 26, 2014. This makes it very easy to draw comparisons, and all EV numbers exclude commons.

Let’s dig in.

Theros Peak Booster Pack EV: $5.04 on Oct. 15, 2013.

Khans of Tarkir Peak Booster Pack EV: $5.01 on Oct. 13, 2014.

Okay, first data point down, and already an interesting result. All this data is courtesy of the tools available at MTGStocks.com, and using that we see Theros actually topped out a little higher than Khans did, despite the anecdotes of shortages we saw and all the talk of this being the most impactful Standard Fall set ever.

Today

Theros Booster Pack EV on Nov. 13, 2013: $4.02.

Khans of Tarkir Booster Pack EV on Nov. 13, 2014: $3.54.

Wild.

I have to say, when I started writing this I did not expect the results to come out like this. Theros had some cool concepts, but it had absolutely nothing rivaling the power of Khans of Tarkir in the older formats. This is an incredible difference in light of that.

There’s one more data point I’m interested in before offering some theories as to what we’re seeing reflected in the numbers.

The Future

Lowest EV reached by Theros Booster Packs: July 19, 2014; $2.66

Khans of Tarkir? We’ll see.

We see that Theros dropped 34 percent from where it sat today last year, to where it bottomed out last summer.

If Khans follows the same pattern, Pack EV will be $2.33, or a difference of $12 a box. It also bears mentioning that Theros is, today, up 17 percent, and at its post-rotation peak was up 20 percent.

Data Conclusions

That’s a lot of numbers, I know. But what it pretty clearly tells us is that the “shortages” didn’t affect the numbers at all. Yes, demand was high, but so was supply, as it is with every in-print Standard set. That demand may have been a little delayed by shortages, but in the end supply came through.

So why the heck was Theros, a cool set but no Khans, worth more at this point in time?

Ironically, it may have to do with exactly how popular Khans of Tarkir is. People aren’t busting these packs for a chase mythic or two. There are good mythics and even more good rares. You’re not playing the lottery every time you open pack, hoping for Elspeth or Stormbreath or maybe Thoughtseize; you’re just opening packs because there’s so much good to be found.

Because the crucial data point we’re missing here is amount sold. Sure, Khans prices are lower than Theros right now, but that could very well be because there’s simply so much more being opened. We don’t know, but given the anecdotal evidence and general trendlines of Magic we can assume it’s true.

So what does this mean moving forward? My take is that the unprecedented amount of Khans of Tarkir being opened means that those fetchlands we’ve been talking so much about are going to continue to trend down. They’ve already reached the $12-14 dollar mark I predicted on the set’s release, but our look at Theros suggests they have another 20-30% or so to drop, which would give us sub-$10 fetchlands at least moving into next year.

But there’s another factor at play, the other crucial difference between Khans and Theros.

The latter was opened for a full draft year whereas Khans will be out of rotation in the spring. So that likely lops some numbers off from above, and given that it seems we can more likely expect a drop of 20% set-wide rather than 34%. It also means I don’t expect fetches to drop any more than another 10-15%. If we do see Khans drop as hard as Theros did, it also means the rise come Rotation could be even sharper.

Now, I know this is a lot of conjecture given the future based off some numbers, but this is the work and thought process I go through when formulating an opinion about the coming year in Magic finance.

Am I totally off-base here? Are my projections missing the mark? What do you think?

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

The $5 Modern Challenge

Posted on November 14, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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Budget decks have always been around and popular. After all, Magic is a hobby (and an expensive one), and we can't always afford to have the top-tier and expensive decks.

Now, there's certainly something to the argument of sinking money into a "budget" deck, only to have that deck be completely uncompetitive and end up being $100 wasted down the drain that could have gone toward completing part of a "real" deck.

Today's challenge, courtesy of Reddit, offers something that won't break anyone's bank: the $5 Modern challenge. Outside of 55 Forests, 4 Lost in the Woods and a Dungrove Elder, it's hard to imagine any real Modern decks coming from such a strict budget.

But what I find most interesting about this post is looking back at the original one from a year ago, where we see fringe-playable cards and decks like mono-green Infect or Kiln Fiend, which have now surpassed those original bounds, showing possible growth even in the most budget of decks.

Is that enough to make me want to go in on any of the ones listed? I'm not sure I would go that far, but it's certainly a fun thought experiment to find out how competitive you can be on such a small budget.

Insider: Depth & Finance in Modern – Surveying the Current and Future State of Modern

Posted on November 13, 2014January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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Lots of people have been playing Magic a long time now. With recent growth in the game there are also a lot of players that have not been playing that long. As for me, I'm somewhere in the middle. I've been playing for almost fourteen years which is coincidentally almost the exact span of Modern sets. I've said a number of times, it's almost like they created a format just for me!

Kidding aside, because of this, I will always have a connection to Modern. Modern is sweet and I want everyone to play it, but it's a hard format to break into.

Modern Masters made it easier for a little bit but most of those cards have rebounded. We all know that Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf have risen in value, but the uncommons are coming back around again as well.

Did you know there are nineteen commons and uncommons from MMA that are worth nearly a dollar or more!? Hopefully you grabbed stacks of these cards while they were laying in draft leftovers instead of dropping the ball like I did. The list might not be extremely surprising but knowledge is power. Take a look.

Modern Masters Uncommons

Path to Exile $5.50
Spell Snare $3.50
Kitchen Finks $4
Mind Funeral $3
Lightning Helix $3
Manamorphose $2.50
Eternal Witness $2.50
Electrolyze $2
Relic of Progenitus $1.25
Murderous Redcap $1
Desperate Ritual $1
Flickerwisp $1
Narcomoeba $1
Trygon Predator $1
Paradise Mantle $1

Modern Masters Commons

Lava Spike $2
Rift Bolt $1.25
Street Wraith $1
Kodama's Reach $1

Modern Masters did exactly what Wizards wanted--to generate lots of interest in the format. Due to the change in the PTQ system we prices haven't increase drastically on many cards, but with so many people playing the format, the cards are still on an upward trend. These Modern Masters cards are just one small portion of the card pool. There are lots of other uncommons as well as other rarities increasing in value. What cards have you noticed that are on the rise?

Modern Diversity and Depth

Recently, players at my shop have wanted to play more Modern and bringing new players into Modern is important for the long-term stability of my shop. The problem with this is that not many regulars own Modern decks. We would get players but with many of them playing mostly Standard cards, you can imagine their success rate. So, what we decided to do is rent decks to players. Although this is of some risk to the store, it does allow more players to access the format.

Since I’ve been playing through all of sets that are Modern legal, and I co-own the shop, I have access to most cards I need. In my first pass at this renting system, I put together six decks. The decks I sleeved up were G/B Rock, Melira Pod, Twin, Burn, Bogles, and UWR Control. We have rented these decks out countless times and players having access to these decks has not only increased purchases in our Modern singles, but also allowed our events to fire with relative frequency. I still need a couple cards for some more decks but once I acquire them in the near future, I will be adding Living End, Dredge, G/R Tron, Affinity, Amulet Combo, Merfolk and Infect to the available decks for rent.

The reason I’m telling you this is to highlight the fact that no matter what trends are active in Modern, all of these decks, and more, will exist in some fashion. Unless new cards are printed that break the format on the level of Second Sunrise or Cloudpost, these decks will all be played.

I mentioned last week that despite the emergence of Jeskai Ascendancy Combo and the resurgence of U/R Delver, the diversity of the Modern metagame would continue. This was clearly evident to me as I played against both UWR Geist Twin (not a combination of cards that should work together) and Loam Assault (not even one of the 13 decks I already mentioned!). The format is quite expensive and players love their decks. These two aspects of the format, just like Legacy, lead players to bring odd decks to battle.

Even though there are two new hot decks in the format (three if you count the reimagining of Burn), many players chose to battle with old favorite decks. This will be more evident at the local shops but even at bigger events like a TCG Player event, SCG IQ, PrePTQ, or even a GP players will play what they have and what they like rather than what may or may not be the best deck. Keep this in mind during deck building. Sometimes we need to accept that some of these extreme fringe decks will be bad matchups and not worry about them, while others we should plan for. G/R Tron, for instance, isn’t the most popular deck but I’ve had to play it at nearly every event for the past year or two.

The positive side of this coin is that Modern is a huge format, and you can play what you want. There is something out there for everyone, whether you enjoy Aggro, Midrange, Control, or Combo. There is even space to invent new decks or combine two strategies together to form something different that players aren’t expecting.

Tournament Tips

It’s been a while since I’ve included this section, but I’ll be bringing it back from time to time. If you have not seen the previous tips, you can search the tags for ‘Tournament Tips.’ Today I wanted to discuss scooping.

Picture this scenario. It’s nearing the end of the game and things look bad for you. You’ve drawn three or four lands in a row to your opponent's spell every one of those turns and your board state went from dominating to meager. Now, your opponent has you on the back foot because you are out of cards. If things keep going the way they are, you’ll be dead in two turns. What’s been happening with me lately is picking up my cards and moving to the next game.

After thinking through some of my recent losses, I was reflecting on this practice to pack it in early to make more time to play the rest of the match. While this is important to keep in mind occasionally, this is not a practice you should integrate regularly. Maybe your opponent has lethal on board or maybe you think you are going to lose, but don’t let that stop you from trying to win.

Once I identified this as a weak area for me, I’ve tried correcting this. There is a lot to be gained by figuring out what sequence of cards you could draw to get you out of a predicament. This past weekend, I said after a match there was a sequence of four cards I could have drawn in a row that would have dug me out of the hole I was in, but I didn’t draw them.

Additionally, this forces your opponent to actually defeat you. I used to get free wins all the time because I would make my opponent finish me off. You’d be surprised at how many opponents won’t swing for lethal because you’re sandbagging two lands in hand to bluff that you can interact with them.

I’ve never stopped bluffing with only lands in hand, but I need to once again, make my opponent kill me. This is a practice that you should be doing as well. If your opponent has lethal on the board, there is a chance that for some reason, they won’t execute. If you know every card in your opponent’s hand and you know they can beat you with a certain sequence of plays, make them realize what that sequence is. Don’t let your opponent off easy by playing the game for them.

Magic is a game of choices. Force your opponent to make all the right ones or capitalize on the mistakes they make to get you back into the game.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force on Modern!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

On Vintage Leagues and Festivals

Posted on November 12, 2014November 12, 2014 by Danny Brown

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The Vintage Super League held its semifinals last night, but that's not the focus of this article. A couple of very cool announcements were made during the stream, and those are what we'll be touching on here.

First, the format of the league is such that the last-place player is kicked out of the league after each season. In this case, Josh Utter-Leyton took last place with a 3-6 record. Utter-Leyton brought some really unique rogue decks to the table during the last few months, and it will be sad to see those no longer in play. Fortunately for the viewers, also on the way out is the awkward-silence-filled commentary Utter-Leyton provided (no disrespect to the man, though. Not everyone can be a sparkly on-camera personality, and this guy is a hell of a Magic player, despite this finish).

With Utter-Leyton departing, this leaves a vacancy that needs to be filled. This should fill you in on everything you need to know:

So that's something to look forward to.

You Said There Were Two Announcements!

Indeed I did! Because this league has been streamed on the official Magic Twitch channel, WOTC invited Buehler and company to announce an MTGO Vintage event that is coming up next month:

This is a pretty groundbreaking format for MTGO. Qualification for the event comes from the normal, everyday MTGO Daily Events. Since these are already among the highest-EV events online, what WOTC is essentially doing is offering extra rewards for the events folks are playing in already. This is nice because it encourages people to play tournaments they would choose to play anyway if looking to play Legacy or Vintage.

And it's actually pretty nice that one can qualify for this event by playing Legacy. It's especially nice when you check out the prize schedule:

Seven lucky players will be going home (well, since this is MTGO, I guess they'll be staying home) with at least one complete set of the Power 9. If you're wondering why I said seven instead of four, you should learn to read the fine print!

Top 3 finishers with zero "Power 9" cards in their deck receive a complete (non-foil) set of Vintage Masters.

There's all kinds of (sic) going in that quote, but the message is clear: even if you don't have a Vintage deck, this is still an event you'd like to play. Since the only way one can qualify without already playing Vintage is by playing Legacy, presumably this event will push three lucky players from Legacy into Vintage.

Worth noting is that only the Power 9 is considered in that fine text. This means powerhouses like Bazaar of Baghdad, Mishra's Workshop, Library of Alexandria, and Sol Ring are just fine for non-powered decks. As such, expect to see a lot of Dredge at this event.

MTGO prize payouts are notoriously weak, but this looks like a pretty damn good event as far as EV goes. What do you think?

Insider: Cards to Watch and Decks to Play in Standard, Modern and Legacy

Posted on November 12, 2014January 17, 2022 by Adam Yurchick

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Cards to Watch

Smash to Smithereens

I hope no one has bulked out their Smash to Smithereens.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Smash to Smithereens

This Modern sideboard staple has hit a new high of $4. This card could be had at under a $1.50 in early July, when it first began to slowly but steadily increase in price all the way to around $3.90 by the end of October, before falling to $3.5 in the first week of November.

Over 14% growth in the last week has brought it to a new high of $4. The price has a little wiggle room, but I think $4 is the new price point going forward. It could go higher, but the recent increase is likely in large part due to an influx of new, cheap fetchland-driven Modern players straining the supply of stores and quickly correcting the previously bargain price.

I do think this one has some serious risk in holding for the long-term, simply because this card has a high chance of reprint. We don't know if it will be in Modern Masters 2, and it may be unlikely since Modern Masters had an artifact theme, but it’s a fit for literally any new set or special deck offering. On the positive side, Shatter in Khans of Tarkir means a reprint is quite unlikely in the current block.

On the topic of artifact removal, I noticed that the $3.60 Shattering Spree has seen approximately 25% growth from its low of $2.84 a year ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shattering Spree

With the Replicated keyword, this card is unlikely to see reprint in a normal set, and as a Modern and Legacy staple, it’s a solid position. Don’t gloss over this one in trades and bulk buys.

Price of Progress

Price of Progress jumped over 85% in the last week alone, currently sitting at around $10.50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Price of Progress

Like the other red cards, Price of Progress was a bargain entering the summer before steadily increasing until the end of October. It was just $3.5 all spring, but steady growth through the summer and to the end of October put it around $5.7, around a 60% gain. The growth accelerated the first few days of November towards $7, before a buyout at the end of last week pushed it over $10--and perhaps even higher.

I suspect this card has been underpriced for a while and had been slowly correcting itself since the spring. It was during this time that Burn strategies saw a renewed interested from the strategy. Burn was a top-tier if not dominant Modern deck by the end of last PTQ season. Eidolon of the Great Revel positioned itself as a competitive Legacy deck, a deck where Price of Progress typically earns maindeck slots.

Recently, the wave of Izzet Delver decks in Legacy has brought a renewed interested in the card. Izzet Delver is undeniably the most popular Legacy deck, and it’s a common sideboard option there.

I’m up on the air on where this will go, likely never under $7 again, but it will be hard pressed to stay much higher than $10.

It’s very important to note that this has a foil printing in the “Fire and Lightning” deck. Those are available at around $7.5 shipped from TCGplayer. It was readily available for under $5 before the buyout, so it too has seen a significant price increase but may still be underpriced by a few dollars.

Decks to Play

Standard

The SCG Open Series came to Columbus, Ohio last weekend and drew a massive crowd of over 750 players for Standard. Steve Rubin won it with his trademark Abzan Midrange:

Abzan Midrange - Steve Rubin

Maindeck

2 Wingmate Roc

4 Sandsteppe Citadel

1 Murderous Cut

2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor

4 Siege Rhino

1 Utter End

4 Abzan Charm

1 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos

4 Courser of Kruphix

3 Hero's Downfall

3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

4 Sylvan Caryatid

4 Thoughtseize

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

1 Mana Confluence

4 Temple of Malady

1 Temple of Plenty

2 Temple of Silence

4 Windswept Heath

2 Forest

2 Plains

2 Caves of Koilos

2 Llanowar Wastes

Sideboard

2 Duneblast

1 Murderous Cut

2 Nissa, Worldwaker

3 Drown in Sorrow

3 Bile Blight

1 Unravel the Aether

1 Glare of Heresy

1 Liliana Vess

1 Erase

I followed Steve’s work with Black Devotion last year, and more recently he was the original designer behind the deck Ari Lax used to win PT: KTK last month. Steve demonstrated his mastery over the format by updating the decklist in accordance with the metagame and piloting it through 14 rounds.

The major innovation since the Pro Tour list is a pair of Brimaz, King of Oreskos as a strong form of midrange board presence, replacing the underwhelming Elvish Mystic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brimaz, King of Oreskos

It’s quite resilient to removal like Bile Blight and Lightning Strike, and it’s a fine blocker. It’s also capable of quickly closing out a game if its controller clears the way. The Cat Soldier tokens it produces are particularly great at triggering the Raid of Wingmate Roc,

Abzan Midrange was a likely favorite going into Khans of Tarkir Standard. After all, it won the Theros block Pro Tour in the hands of Patrick Chapin, and the spoiling of Siege Rhino and Abzan Charm gave it two new tools more powerful than any cards the archetype could have ever dreamed of playing. There is no surprise it won the Pro Tour, and there is no surprise it continues to win.

There is really no safer or surer bet--no deck more rewarding of continued play, experience and mastery--and there is no deck more capable of being tuned week-to-week to adapt to the metagame. This is surely the deck I have my money on in future Standard events and the deck I recommend everyone picking up sooner than later, if not to play it than to know how to beat it.

Legacy

Treasure Cruise has massively impacted Legacy and the effects are just beginning to be felt. The abrupt rise of Izzet Delver has shocked the format, and a strong reaction to this deck is already taking shape through the metagame.

The SCG Legacy Open in Columbus on Sunday was the most high-profile and significant event before Legacy GP: New Jersey this coming weekend, and it will be looked upon by many for inspiration.

Rudy Briksza won the event with a UW Stoneblade deck splashing into red for Lightning Bolt for extra creature control and maindeck Pyroblast to counter Treasure Cruise.

Jeskai Stoneblade - Rudy Briksza

Maindeck

2 Dig Through Time

1 Treasure Cruise

1 Council's Judgment

2 True-Name Nemesis

1 Snapcaster Mage

1 Batterskull

4 Stoneforge Mystic

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Spell Pierce

3 Lightning Bolt

2 Vendilion Clique

1 Umezawa's Jitte

2 Counterspell

4 Brainstorm

4 Force of Will

2 Pyroblast

4 Swords to Plowshares

1 Mountain

2 Plains

3 Island

3 Volcanic Island

3 Tundra

1 Karakas

2 Arid Mesa

4 Flooded Strand

3 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard

2 Containment Priest

1 Supreme Verdict

1 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Flusterstorm

2 Kor Firewalker

1 Baneslayer Angel

1 Relic of Progenitus

1 Pyroclasm

2 Blood Moon

1 Red Elemental Blast

1 Blue Elemental Blast

This deck is built to control and outlast Izzet Delver decks with plenty of disruption alongside the powerful Stoneforge Mystic providing lategame inevitability. Snapcaster Mage is quite powerful with delving because delve can be used when being flashbacked from the graveyard!

This deck leans on two Dig Through Times and just one Treasure Cruise, a decision that gives the deck greater card quality at the expense of quantity. And in practice, it is likely more powerful overall.

Dig Through Time ultimately requires more mana, but as an instant it’s certainly more versatile. They will be functionally similar in terms of cost in most matches, but Dig Through Time carries significantly less variance than random draws from the top of the deck, so it’s more reliable than Treasure Cruise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dig Through Time

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Cruise

On the other hand, it lacks the same level of explosive potential that comes with hitting three relevant cards, and with less raw cards, it’s not as synergistic with Brainstorm plus a shuffle effect.

These sort of card decisions needs to be thoroughly tested, and certainly both options are fine, while perhaps a mix is the most correct. Based on his interviews, Rudy was happy with his decision and hinted that he would cut the Treasure Cruise because Dig Through Time performed so well.

I really like Rudy’s deck, and it’s exactly the sort of idea I had in mind for approaching the format. It’s able to play the control role against Izzet Delver with lots of removal and it has inevitability with its endgame. The removal package makes it strong against Elves Combo, while the stable manabase and strong creatures give it plenty of game against Death and Taxes.

This deck has all the tools it requires for fighting fair decks but has plenty of great sideboard options for attacking the remainder of the field. Containment Priest in particular was tailor-made for this strategy.

With proper testing and tuning, this deck is a great option for the GP and a deck I’d recommend to anyone with Stoneblade experience. It’s certainly the deck I’ll be working with going forward.

That’s it this week, so please scroll down to the comments section with any questions.

Insider: The Top 5 Overplayed and Underplayed Cards in Legacy

Posted on November 12, 2014January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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Solutions to problems present themselves in different ways in different formats. In Standard, before Pack Rat rotated out, we were all waiting for new cards to be printed to exterminate the pesky vermin. In Legacy, we find ourselves turning to cards that nobody has played in years to combat new technology.

It wasn't long ago that people were complaining that Griselbrand should be banned in Legacy. So people dug into one of the earliest sets in Magic and used "Plains-with-upside" Karakas to give Maverick--the fairest of fair decks--a winning percentage against a one-card combo deck.

With access to so many gems, the ban list is a much cruder, more boring and needless tool than access to Gatherer and a little creativity is.

Today I want to talk about my top five overplayed and underplayed cards in Legacy. Some of these are on the list with beating Treasure Cruise Delver in mind, and some will emphasize the fact that current Delver lists are not yet fully tuned.

Let's start with the overplayed lot.

My Top Five Overplayed Cards in Legacy

#5 Chain Lightning

While it's true that sometimes Delver of Secrets decks will dig for Lightning Bolt to kill you, as literally no other card in the deck could do the job, it's still not the case that a Delver of Secrets deck should be regarded as a burn deck. The timing restriction on Chain Lightning coupled with the fact that it almost always acts as a worse removal spell than Forked Botl makes it very difficult to justify in non-burn decks. A 3-toughness creature is quiet rare in Legacy. Much rarer than facing two one-toughness creatures.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chain Lightning

If it's the case that we're looking for a card that does more damage rather than one that's the better removal spell, then we should take the next logical step and play Goblin Guide rather than Delver of Secrets. Half-measures are rarely wise steps to take in deck design. There is a reason the Goblin Guide Izzet Delver decks pre-Treasure Cruise only saw rare success and were considered worse than RUG Delver, and that reason was that they were less focused and their card choices could best be described as "confused".

I'm not saying that Burn is a bad choice. In fact, this might be the best time to be playing Burn in Legacy history. But I am saying that if you're going to do something, you should commit to it.

#4 Graveyard Hate Sided Against Treasure Cruise

The qualifying statement here is absolutely necessary, in particular with Dredge winning the Oakland Open. That said, people are bringing in graveyard hate against Treasure Cruise decks when they absolutely shouldn't be. I like a Rest in Peace when it enables Helm combo, but not when it's just trying to turn off one card in my opponent's deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rest in Peace

There was an error retrieving a chart for Helm of Obedience

I had an Infect opponent splashing white bring in Rest in Peace against my Delver deck in Minneapolis. I was surprised when he Swordsed one of my guys, but it seemed justifiable as having removal would help him win protracted games. Rest in Peace, however, interacts with one slot in the deck and is the type of card that is non-essential to winning games. I need creatures. I don't need Treasure Cruise.

The best counterpoint to this sideboard strategy is that when you bring in Rest in Peace against Dredge or Tarmogoyf, it doesn't matter who shot first unless you're already dead. If I resolve a Treasure Cruise before you resolve Rest in Peace, then your spell turns off three cards total that I could draw while I've already gotten a 3-for-1 out of the fourth. In other words, you're behind.

I'm not advocating cutting Rest in Peace from your sideboards. Reanimator is reasonably popular and Dredge and Lands are still around. I even like it against decks with Tarmogoyf and Treasure Cruise. I'm just saying that you shouldn't bring it in just because your opponent has one delve spell.

#3 Gitaxian Probe

It just wouldn't be "Ryan Overturf's Overplayed List" if it didn't feature Gitaxian Probe. I've done this topic to death time and time again, but the big point that I want to highlight here is that people are leaving these in in the Izzet Delver mirror, and that is just an insane liability. If you have a Young Pyromancer that isn't dying, you're winning anyway. And if you use it to pump a Swiftspear, you're taking two to deal one, or you're paying mana for Needle Drop. Cut. The. Chaff.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gitaxian Probe

It's not like you're checking to see whether you need to leave Daze up. You always want to counter Treasure Cruise and you always want to kill their creatures. All of your other spells are good in the mirror and you need to cut something for those removal spells/Pyroblasts. I could see cutting Force of Will in the mirror, too, but Treasure Cruise and Young Pyromancer are both pretty good reasons to leave some or all of those in.

#2 Thoughtseize

With Treasure Cruise in the format, it's truer now than ever that Thoughtseize is better than Hymn to Tourach. That said, I'm not a fan of Thoughtseize in a field of redundant, fair decks with Brainstorm and Treasure Cruise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

I'm specifically referring to Thoughtseize out of decks like Deathblade and Sultai Delver. If you're killing slowly, the information isn't especially useful, particularly when everything is so redundant, and you'd probably just rather interact with the board and the stack--two things that your deck is quite good at.

I know he won his Open, but I much prefer Jimmy Dela Cruz's lack of Thoughtseize to Ben Glacy's inclusion.

Ben Glacy's Worchester Winning Deathblad

spells

4 Deathrite Shaman

4 Stoneforge Mystic

2 True-Name Nemesis

1 Vendilion Clique

1 Liliana of the Veil

1 Batterskull

4 Brainstorm

4 Force of Will

3 Spell Pierce

4 Swords to Plowshares

1 Umezawa's Jitte

4 Ponder

3 Thoughtseize

3 Treasure Cruise

lands

4 Flooded Strand

3 Marsh Flats

4 Polluted Delta

1 Scrubland

1 Tropical Island

2 Tundra

3 Underground Sea

2 Wasteland

1 Karakas

sideboard

1 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Pithing Needle

1 Relic of Progenitus

1 Sword of Feast and Famine

2 Meddling Mage

1 Flusterstorm

1 Surgical Extraction

2 Zealous Persecution

1 Vendilion Clique

1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

1 Liliana of the Veil

1 Supreme Verdict

1 Thoughtseize

Oakland Runner-up Jimmy Dela Cruz's Sultai Delver

spells

4 Deathrite Shaman

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Tarmogoyf

4 Abrupt Decay

4 Brainstorm

4 Daze

1 Dimir Charm

4 Force of Will

4 Stifle

4 Ponder

4 Treasure Cruise

lands

4 Misty Rainforest

2 Polluted Delta

3 Scalding Tarn

3 Tropical Island

3 Underground Sea

4 Wasteland

sideboard

2 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Null Rod

2 Chill

1 Darkblast

3 Disfigure

2 Golgari Charm

3 Spell Pierce

1 Vendilion Clique

Losing two life isn't for nothing in a Delver-infested metagame, either. No one is denying the raw power of Thoughtseize. The conditions just aren't really there for it to really shine in Legacy right now.

#1 Stifle

So, Stifle isn't even that played right now, but there are four copies in almost every Sultai Delver deck that I look at. I touched on why I don't like this last week, and I completely stand by what I said. There's a bit more discussion in the comments as well.

When Stifle was really good, one of the major arguments for it was its power level against Maverick and Miracles. Due to access to Abrupt Decay, Sultai Delver is already possibly the best positioned Delver deck against Miracles, and Maverick hasn't yet picked up the popularity that it probably should have at this point. Not to mention that cards like Golgari Charm and a myriad of other options help swing the Maverick matchup for Sultai Delver as well. What I'm getting at is that we can do better.

My Top Five Underplayed Cards in Legacy

Now for the exciting list.

#5 Wasteland

I don't think this card ever isn't on my list of underplayed Legacy cards. I fully understand that Wasteland is already widely played, but it gets left out in a lot of places where it should be included. Part of this could be a budgetary thing, but I believe that many players don't fully comprehend just how powerful Wasteland actually is. I touched on this one last week as well, but it bears repeating.

There are nonbasics that many decks will struggle immensely against without access to Wasteland. How is Izzet Delver reliably beating Punishing Grove, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale or even Maze of Ith on occasion? Glacial Chasm? And what of all the games when your opponent stumbles on two mana? Wouldn't you like to have a way to just win those games instead of having them drag on until they draw their third land and beat you with the sheer volume of spells they've drawn?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wasteland

I tried playing Wasteland-less Izzet Delver against ANT recently, and that's just a nightmare. You usually need to couple a few Daze and Spell Pierces together to beat them and their Duresses. Without being able to destroy their lands, they can safely play around a lot of these types of spells. That's why Storm is still seeing considerable play in the Delver Cruise metagame. Mountain and Chain Lightning aren't Wasteland and Spell Pierce.

Wasteland also just helps you crush people who play around Price of Progress. There are a lot of 3+ color decks in Legacy, and many of them play too many basics. Very frequently when they fetch a basic and play a dual, a single Wasteland will often cut their available lines of play in half.

Yes, games tend to go longer with Treasure Cruise in the format. But you play Wasteland over spells, and there are plenty of games where a single Wasteland early on would stop them from going long. You don't need that many colored sources. Plenty of 3-color decks have gotten by with 14 colored-sources for years.

#4 Punishing Fire

Or you could take advantage of the fact that people are playing creature decks without Wasteland. Punishing Grove is extremely powerful against stock Izzet Delver. I'm sure that Zack Wong crushed more than one Delver pilot on his way to the Top 8 of the Oakland Open.

Zack Wong's Lands

spells

1 Crucible Of Worlds

2 Engineered Explosives

4 Mox Diamond

1 Zuran Orb

4 Exploration

3 Crop Rotation

3 Intuition

3 Punishing Fire

4 Life from the Loam

lands

1 Forest

1 Bayou

1 Bojuka Bog

1 Ghost Quarter

1 Glacial Chasm

3 Grove of the Burnwillows

3 Maze of Ith

1 Misty Rainforest

4 Rishadan Port

1 Taiga

2 Thespian's Stage

2 Tolaria West

3 Tropical Island

1 Verdant Catacombs

4 Wasteland

1 Wooded Foothills

1 Academy Ruins

1 Karakas

1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

2 Dark Depths

sideboard

3 Chalice of the Void

4 Sphere of Resistance

2 Phyrexian Revoker

1 Notion Thief

2 Abrupt Decay

2 Krosan Grip

1 Nephalia Drownyard

It's going to be tougher for a deck like this to beat a Rest in Peace, so I'm more inclined to advocate something like Punishing Maverick, but either way, infestation of creature decks with the lack of Wasteland, such as Izzet Delver and Elves, makes me pretty big on Punishing Grove.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grove of the Burnwillows

There was an error retrieving a chart for Punishing Fire

Or we could take a path with a little less setup...

#3 Darkblast

To be fair, thiswas in the first and second place list of the Oakland Open, but I still haven't seen a ton of it, and there was really no reason for the Dredge player not to play it. This card really shines in Dela Cruz's Sultai Delver deck though.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Darkblast

If you want to beat Elves and Young Pyromancer, this card is gas. It also has excellent synergy with Brainstorm, Tarmogoyf and Treasure Cruise. I would probably use one of those Stifle slots to maindeck this one.

There's not much else to say about Darkblast. Now that the card has seen some success, I fully expect more players to start jamming it.

Foil copies of this card are already quite scarce online, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a steeper price tag on it in the not-so-distant future. Be cautioned, however--that this card will rarely appear as more than a one-of, so speculate accordingly.

#2 Dig Through Time

If you follow the Vintage Super League at all, it seems like everybody is playing Dig Through Time or Treasure Cruise in their Vintage decks now. So why has one picked up steam in Legacy while the other has been largely ignored? It seems to me that the Sneak and Show players just haven't figured it out yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dig Through Time

Now, I'm not a Sneak and Show expert, but tell me there's nothing we can cut from Jonathan Betts' 7th place deck in Oakland to make room for arguably the best card selection spell printed since Preordain:

Jonathan Betts' Sneak and Show

spells

4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Griselbrand

4 Lotus Petal

4 Sneak Attack

4 Brainstorm

2 Daze

4 Force of Will

1 Misdirection

3 Spell Pierce

3 Gitaxian Probe

4 Ponder

4 Show and Tell

lands

3 Island

1 Mountain

3 Ancient Tomb

2 City of Traitors

1 Flooded Strand

2 Polluted Delta

4 Scalding Tarn

3 Volcanic Island

sideboard

2 Grafdigger's Cage

3 Blood Moon

3 Echoing Truth

2 Through the Breach

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

3 Pyroclasm

Are we not able to trim our fatties with an amazing new spell to help find them? Can we trim Lotus Petal in a world with fewer Spell Pierces? Do we really want something like Misdirection to act as a fifth Force of Will instead of playing a spell that can act as a two-for-one in our favor to help win longer games?

I have played so many games on the Delver side of this matchup where if the Sneak and Show player had just one more card, they would simply kill me. Having an instant speed way to select the best two cards out of seven would have won many of those games, and I'm not understanding why this card isn't seeing the play that it deserves.

#1 Jotun Grunt

Spirit of the Labyrinth doesn't quite cut it as an answer to Treasure Cruise when Forked Bolts are abundant. Gaddock Teeg is awesome but has obvious diminishing returns and a similar weakness to red spells. The long forgotten one-time staple Jotun Grunt, however, just might have what it takes to be an all-star once again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jotun Grunt

I can't take credit for this one. Kyle Olson asked me if I would play some games with the stock Izzet Delver deck against him to prep for GP New Jersey, and this was the tech that he was really excited about.

And damn. This one it tough to beat. You can't Bolt it. You almost always play around Daze anyway, since it's usually not good on turn two. And it stonewalls everything but Delver while racing. Did I mention that it hoses Treasure Cruise?

The premier white creature deck in the format has long been Death and Taxes, and without fetchlands or many spells, it's not the best shell for Jotun Grunt. But Maverick, Esper, Bant and a number of other decks could easily take advantage of this slumbering giant.

One of the best ways to combat Delver decks is just to be slightly slower and bigger than them, and Jotun Grunt does just that without being too fancy.

We haven't logged a ton of games and, to my knowledge, no one else is on this card yet, but it has interesting applications as a spec target. Non-foils are abundantly available from Coldnsnap and Commander and likely wouldn't see much movement even if the card explodes.

Foils from Coldsnap, however, could get out of control if this tech takes off. There are copies available in the $6-8 range, and I like picking up a few. The market right now is probably pretty small for this card, but the supply of Coldsnap foils is also really small.

If no one picks it up or if Cruise is banned, you won't see any movement on them any time soon, but if people start playing them, I could easily see a $20-$30 price tag. For a touch of perspective, Counterbalance is clearly more sought-after, but it's a $90-$100 foil uncommon from the same set.

Those are my lists! What did you like/dislike and agree/disagree with? Is this list useful? How excited are you to cast Jotun Grunt again? Let me know in the comments!

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Unglued, Unhinged, Unseen

Posted on November 11, 2014 by Jason Alt

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I know it must look like I'm on a MaRo kick lately, but he's really one of the only people doing anything interesting right now because everyone else is concentrating on preparing for the GP this weekend. Today he wrote an article about the third set from the "un" block that never was.

It is a follow up to this article which he wrote last year and you might want to give it a read first.

He posted some artwork never before seen, discussed concepts for the set and generally made me really upset that we never got a third "un" set. Could we get one in the future? It's possible and as sexy as the full art lands are in Unglued and Unhinged, I imagine the sets would sell well. It would be like having another Conspiracy - fun to draft, good cards for cube and valuable cards in every pack.

Give the article a read - it's worth it. The design process has always fascinated me and this gives a really telling peek behind the curtain.

Insider: [MTGO] Filling Up Your Modern Basket – A Careful Selection of Promising Specs

Posted on November 11, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Modern price cycles are no stranger to the MTGO economy. These cycles have been a substantial and predictable source of profit for any speculator willing to monitor the trends just a little bit. Prices are expected to swing up and down, mostly following Modern seasons. Some cards have their own rhythm, rising and falling more or less rapidly, with one constant--cyclically going up and down. All this makes Modern positions highly predictable.

In addition, a cool thing with Modern speculation is that any card can be the next bomb if it shines during a GP, a PT or in a Travis Woo brew. Whether is it was a card known to be playable in Modern decks or a total stranger, its price can be multiplied by two, three or even tenfold!

Following the release of the new fall set and the rotation of Standard, October and November are usually a good period to invest in Modern positions.

What's Up Modern?

This 2014 year has been quite different from the past two years for Modern. We got the Modern Pro Tour--PT Born of the Gods in Valancia--in February instead of October for both previous Modern PTs. This was followed by a cancelled Modern PTQ season online this past summer. Nonetheless, Modern prices rose in August but didn't really exceed those in March.

Finally the new GP and PT agenda was unveiled without a real marked Modern season, and no Modern PT. After people let WotC know what they thought, a Modern PT was finally scheduled in February 2015--Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

I didn't really know what to expect from Modern fluctuations this year. The cancellation of Modern PTQs on MTGO compromised the peak I was expecting from Modern staples but actually most of them ignored the turmoil and kept their up and down cycles. To name a few Scapeshift, Serra Ascendant, Birthing Pod, Dismember and Fulminator Mage followed quite regular cycles. Scapeshift and Dismember actually hit a new record high between M15 and Khans of Tarkir releases.

Other Modern staples didn't really cycle during the past six months, losing some value or staying mostly flat. Some examples of this were Living End, Splinter Twin and Blood Moon.

What about the general trend? As illustrated by the Modern index, most Modern staples were actually at a high point at the end of August. A high point that matches the heights reached earlier this year in March.

Something else that you can clearly see here is that the index, and therefore most of the Modern staples, lost about 25% between August and October. This is the seasonal dip expected after the fall set release--a good opportunity to pick up several Modern cards before the next rebound and before what could trigger big spikes--Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Not all cards have dipped and are good pickups right now. Some have already rebounded from their low earlier this month. After its mid-October fall, Scapeshift sharply rebounded and reached its past record price. Benefiting from the hype around blue-red decks, Scalding Tarn's price more than doubled in less than a month. Helped by a brew from Travis Woo, Goryo's Vengeance doubled up this month.

Other cards such as Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, Cascade Bluffs, Vedalken Shackles, Engineered Explosives and Cavern of Souls are closer to a high than a low and are probably not a good pick now.

On last note, Modern Masters 2 might be near the corner but nothing is sure yet. At any time, up or down, keep an eye on your positions and on potential or verified reprints.

Building Your Basket

If the evolution of Modern prices is more predictable than anything else it's nonetheless not an exact science for every individual card. Building a basket of two dozen or so positions greatly increases your overall chances of positive returns and provides an edge against any big losses. The selection is rather large with Modern, so make sure to diversify your portfolio enough.

Lets look at a panel of decent picks with, in my opinion, potentially good returns within the next three to five months.

As Low As Could Be But...

Several long-time Modern staples have fell short of interest more recently. The following cards are at a long-term low or even at a historical nadir since their debut in Modern. Some of these also seem to have lost their spot in their respective deck(s) in favor of more appropriate solutions or card combinations. Picking them should be done cautiously, although they may be excellent opportunities if you expect them to rebound to their previous level.

Kiki-Jiki is back to its November 2012 low. Its appearance in Twin and Pod decks is clearly not as dominant as before. Not sure if this legendary goblin will regain its past fame. At 7 Tix or so the gamble might be worth it.

Coralhelm Commander at 0.05 Tix? Merfolk may not be a dominant archetype but at this price what's the risk? Or maybe the commander is not good enough and is getting kicked off the merfolk team.

Your Average Good Modern Pick

These are classic examples of regular Modern contenders. Almost all of these are established Modern staples which are fairly low now with a good upside ahead--a 50 to 100% gain is what you can expect with those. Others have not seen a regular presence in Modern decks but are at an attractive buying price now and would only need a little PT push to rise again.

Living End, Pyromancer Ascension, Fulminator Mage, Oblivion Stone and Grove of the Burnwillows are examples of Modern staples with a 100% or more margin from their previous highest. Lotus Bloom and Through the Breach don't necessarily see a ton of play but have the potential to explode if caught by hype.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dismember

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pyromancer Ascension

If you do more research you'll probably find several other Modern cards with a low price at the moment and good potential going forward.

High Roller Positions

These are also Modern staples but with a higher price tag, recommended for bigger bankrolls. I would not consider these ones if you don't have 100 Tix or more ready to invest in each of your Modern positions. Your position might be filled with only a couple of copies to a playset of these cards.

While some of them might double in the case of favorable winds during the next Modern PT, I would only count on a 30% gain on average. Here you are betting on volume (the ability to invest several dozen of Tix in very few trades) and time gained (buying and selling these cards could take you less than a minute).

Bitterblossom is still expensive and seems to have more or less stabilized around 20 Tix since May. The black enchantment is not (yet?) the bomb we expected it to be. 20 Tix might be its baseline for future growth if decks including it see more success.

I kind of like Primeval Titan although it's not really cheap currently. The green giant has always been at the center of explosive decks and when you look at the graph its current price seems to be at the floor of a two-year trend. 30 Tix next time this titan moves up? Unless the titans are reprinted in Modern Masters 2...

Outsiders

Bored of mom-and-pop Modern positions? I may have some ideas for you.

Orzhov Pontiff. 0.2 Tix in January and more than 5 Tix last months. An incredible ascension for a card that is a one- or two-of in mostly Pod decks. This little guy made a name for himself as a solution against a lot of decks including Pod, Infect and W/B Tokens. Now doubling as a solution to the popular Young Pyromancer and his teammates could make Pontiff even go higher.

Minamo, School at Water's Edge. I would put this blue land in the sleeper category. From an old set, doesn't come on the battlefield tapped and has a special ability that could be relevant. I know its play is and might stay very marginal, but a little demand would drive its price high. Did you know that Oboro, Palace in the Clouds is almost worth 9 Tix now?

Ancestral Vision is not a Modern card, not yet. With people saying that Treasure Cruise is better and not banned (yet?) there's more and more incentive to unban Vision. Despite not being a Modern-playable card, Ancestral Vision swings quite a bit and is now close to a low. Not much to lose and a jackpot at stack if this card gets unbanned.

I have to admit that I have underestimated the power of the ZEN fetch lands to rebound. Scalding Tarn is already back to its height, Misty Rainforest could follow soon. The reasoning is probably true for all the ZEN fetch lands but Rainforest is still 30 Tix away from its record. You may want to consider Verdant Catacomb too.

Modern is a format full of good opportunities for speculators all year long and especially now. What are your feelings about Modern this year? Any favorite picks?

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Grand Prix New Jersey… Article – Anticipating the Financial Impact

Posted on November 11, 2014January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Look, I didn't know what to call this.

I had "Grand Prix New Jersey Prep" for a while, but I didn't want people to not click on it because they thought I was going to try and dispense Legacy advice. I think Punishing Jund is well positioned, but that's my opinion. I'm certainly not going to be able to substantiate that with testing data.

What am I reasonably going to be able to tell people about playing Legacy that they don't know? "Treasure Cruise is a good card, you guys." "Containment Priest is the real deal except it's not good against the best decks." Bah.

I considered going with "Grand Prix New Jersey Primer" but that sounds even more like I'm trying to help you guys build decks. I'd wager a lot of us are going but how many of us are actually playing?

I'm socially obligated to play a non-zero number of EDH games with people who read my articles and the plan is to spend at least part of Saturday on site, but hanging around a smelly convention center seems less than ideal when I could be eating steaks in Manhattan or trying to do an open mic or something infinitely more fun than dicking around in New Jersey. Playing Magic is cool, but since I don't want to play in the GP (I may still register to get the sleeves and mat) I don't want to give the impression that I will.

I wrote "prep" on purpose, though, let's make that clear. I want to talk about what could happen this weekend financially. We should think about what prices could do before they do that thing they could do, right? It's good to get out ahead of potential changes and in general get ourselves in the mindset. What's likely to happen? What's not likely to happen? Are the any opportunities to make money, pay less for singles than we might next week and in general not feel bad when we start reading articles on Monday?

I think the first thing we should do is talk about the event itself.

Grand Prix New Jersey 2014

Tournament Organizer - Star City Games

Location - New Jersey. Duh.

Format - Legacy Constructed

Artists - Jeff Menges, RK Post, Christopher Rush, Zack Stella, Jon Avon

Swag - 1 month SCG premium, Brainstorm Sleeves, Brainstorm Playmat, GP New Jersey 2014 Brainstorm deckbox, Foil promo Batterskull

All of these things are significant.

Tournament Organizer

Star City Games runs tournaments very well. This is going to give people a high degree of confidence in the event going smoothly and encourage people to show up. Not only that, they are going to give themselves primo buying and selling areas meaning they will be doing a lot of business.

When SCG does a lot of business at a GP, they tend to move the market. They have been known to raise buylist prices to get every copy of a card in the room, even to the point where there is arbitrage money to be made buying from other dealers at retail and selling to SCG.

Lots of attendance coupled with lots of buying power on SCG's behalf could have a profound impact on prices--although a repeat of last year is not anticipated as everything is inflated out of proportion right now and should normalize rather than jump again.

Location

New Jersey smells like farts, that's just science. There are fartier-smelling areas than Edison, though, and while the specific area is somewhat relevant (it's a one-hour train ride to Manhattan, for example, meaning you don't have to stay in New Jersey and be sad if you don't want to) the general area is very, very relevant.

He was wrong, but Aaron Forsythe predicted that the 2012 Grand Prix in Providence, Rhode Island would have more attendees than Grand Prix Las Vegas 2012. It seems ludicrous in hindsight, but at the time a lot of people in the community agreed with his assessment. If I'm not mistaken, Corbin Hosler bet a trip to Fogo de Chão or an equivalent churrascaria that Providence would exceed Vegas' attendance, and Corbin was even planning to go to GP Vegas but not Providence. Why?

The format seemed relevant--it was a team event and those are solid. The East Coast location also seemed good. Although it's not centrally located in the USA, it is in an area with a great population density and a short drive from many major metropolitan areas. Lots of people could easily make the trip without having to fly.

GP New Jersey this weekend has a lot in common with Providence. With VIP sold out and preregistration already at more than the total size of most North American Grands Prix, this could be huge for attendance. Huge attendance means a lot for card prices.

Lots of buying will get done but dealers are likely to spend all of their money the same as they always do. This will be a gigantic weekend for selling, though, and when dealers sell out of high-priced cards, they have to raise their buy prices to restock. If all of the major dealers end up picked clean, we could see buylist prices start to nudge up regardless of whether we see retail prices increase.

Format

Legacy Grands Prix don't come around very often. The last major Legacy GP saw prices on cards like Underground Sea and Rishadan Port double. There were a lot of factors that contributed to this, and I don't expect to see another price shift like that, but Legacy cards will be in high demand.

Last time a major Legacy event was on the heels of a Commander product release, we saw a mad dash for copies of True-Name Nemesis. While there won't be that much of a scramble for Containment Priest and Daretti, Scrap Savant this time around, I would out that stuff if I had it and buy in cheaper later.

I've also been advising people for months to wait for this weekend to sell or trade out of Legacy. Between friends who have both large Legacy collections and small children and are considering selling their cards because they can't play Legacy anymore, to people writing in to the podcast or my personal e-mail address, I have a lot of people poised to make moves. I am advising them to see what happens to prices after this weekend.

A price spike in Modern cards precipitated by Star City, especially in fetches, made Legacy suddenly a format people could trade into at the Legacy GP in Washington DC. But I don't see any indication that could happen again. The absence of a glut of people moving into Legacy won't have the same effect on prices and we'll see a gentle increase due to increased demand but not severely diminished supply.

I expect prices of some cards to go up this weekend, but being unable to predict which cards makes me tell people to hang onto everything. Nothing is likely go down sharply so if you can wait until after the event, why not do it?

If you're planning to go to the event, I would try and get people to trade their Standard stuff to you at buylist prices for Legacy stuff they need to play the event. If you have a retail out for the Standard stuff, this is a great way to make a decent percentage, especially if you target high spread cards that sell well. If not, smashing Legacy stuff into Modern stuff that has a bit more potential to grow is a good move as well.

Modern has a lot more events which means a lot more chances for some tech to catch on and be in high demand. I wouldn't trade away Reserved List Legacy stuff like dual lands, mind you, but stuff like Price of Progress, Cabal Therapy and Goblin Lackey would be good to turn into cards like Birthing Pod, and other Modern goodies with low reprint risk.

Artists

Getting cards signed is always a big deal, but SCG really went into the tank to get artists responsible for some important and iconic Legacy cards.

Jon Avon did the Unhinged basics everyone likes so much, and SCG offering the huge wall prints has made those more popular than ever. Personally, I think Unhinged lands aren't fit to sniff Unglued lands' farts, but SCG can influence culture and players seem to be on the Unhinged train. Foil Unhinged lands have never been more expensive and I expect people to want them signed. Random cards like Urborg and Green Sun's Zenith could be in demand, too.

Jeff Menges did older cards like Swords to Plowshares and Bazaar of Baghdad. I wouldn't sneeze at getting a Moat signed, either. While Bazaar isn't super relevant in Legacy because of how banned it is, I expect more than a few to get signed.

Swords is the real winner here. Beta swords keep going up and getting a set signed would be cool to some. It can hurt the resale value, but people who get cards signed tend to hang onto them, removing the copies from the pool and making them a bit more scarce.

RK Post illustrated everything, but he's also at everything. I think he does so many that there won't be a huge impetus to have him sign stuff. That said, his booth always has a long line despite there being tons of chances to meet him. Personally, I'm stoked that Reef Worm is such a popular card.

I bet he sells a few of these this weekend, and that sexy Brainstorm Brewery logo is on all of them. Awww yiss.

Christopher Rush has done Black Lotus, Lightning Bolt and a version of Brainstorm. That in and of itself is significant enough.

Zack Stella is the artist who painted True-Name Nemesis, a card that has slipped a bit but is still a major card in Legacy. It's probably the least fair fair card.

Matt Stewart is a big deal here. He illustrated the judge foil Mana Crypt, which isn't that important in Legacy due to how banned it is, but he also did the Judge Foil Force of Will. I expect that card to trade well this weekend as people who wanted them have waited until now to get them and the artist is at the event.

Swag

Everyone who signs up to play the main event gets a lot for their money:

This level of generosity has got to attract some people who were on the fence. Since SCG has been saying they predict they might see 6,000 people, it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't commission at least 6,000 of each of these things. The fact that they are predicting such a big event is great because big events matter.

My Predictions

I don't predict we'll see prices go as nuts as they did last year at DC. I think that some of the prices will be sticky, but I don't think $350 Underground Sea from Revised will be one of them.

It can't if Legacy is to continue as a format. Once people begin getting priced out, demand will fall and the prices will drop a bit. If it reaches an equilibrium where it makes sense to buy in at the lower price, we'll see more people buy in and prices will rebound. I think a large event and the price spikes in Modern staples moved the equilibrium point forever, but I don't think prices will stay at the apex and I bet they correct downward.

However, if that does happen, it won't be for a while after this event. Some cards are drifting downward.

I think Wasteland has room to grow but its current price may be close to equilibrium. Being uncommon probably hurts it, evidenced by other lands that spiked last year plateauing rather than coming down.

The price drop is visible, but less pronounced. GP Jersey could delay inevitable price decreases, although it's possible that it prompts a spike. We're seeing spikes in cards that are easier to get ahold of.

I don't think this is metagame-dependant because the Legacy format is too wide open. Certain staples are desirable, dealers could be trying to get stocked, and people might have just bought out a card that was a little too cheap for what it does. I bet Price of Progress doesn't stay $10, but I bet it's also never $5 again.

Keep that in mind this weekend. I think Price of Progress is the first in a line of multiple cards we'll see spike before Friday.

Have Fun!

If you're watching coverage, watch prices, too. I don't think anything will go nuts, but this weekend may be a better time to out certain cards than next week. I have a feeling some stuff could see bumps rather than sustained increases just from the sheer number of people buying and trading for Legacy cards in preparation for a huge GP. We don't get many chances to play Legacy on this scale, so it's going to be a pretty big deal.

I plan to be at the event though I don't know how much time I'll spend there. Since I found out you can buylist from home in your underwear, the impetus to buylist in person at a GP isn't as strong as it used to be. And no one wants to trade with a guy wearing a QS or Brainstorm Brewery t-shirt, so I mostly just go to these things to durdle. Still, I'll be looking for deals in every dealer case. With Legacy being so unpredictable, there may even be arbitrage money to be made if any buylists spike wildly.

I'll be back next week to talk about how many of these predictions came true. The next week will be critical, so let's all keep an eye on it.