menu

Mastering the Art of the Steal

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

In just the last few years Magic has printed a large number of cards that allow you to steal and play your opponent's cards. There are some tremendous advantages to this theme! Whether you're a player on a budget or just love the experience of total deck building freedom, pilfering may be a good theme for your next Commander deck.

But First A Little Magic History

Stealing your opponent's permanents, or stealing and playing your opponent's cards, is buried deep in Magic's DNA and has been part of the game since way back when. How way back?

Literally Alpha Edition

These cards are iconic and part of Magic's history. There are other iconic and spicy examples like Helm of Obedience, Spelljack, Geth, Lord of the Vault and Commandeer. Red deserves a special mention for the tremendous variety of Disharmony effects printed.

So You Can Steal Things, Big Deal

Using other people's cards is very fun. It's so fun I've written about it here. However, Act of Treason is a very different type of theft than we will be discussing here. If Act of Treason is cheating on a test by peeking at your neighbor's test, Praetor's Grasp is hacking into a corporate server to commit industrial espionage. Both are theft but one is a much bigger deal. Praetor's takes away an opponent's threat, answer, combo piece, or favorite card but it's a one-off effect. So how can we steal the maximum amount of value from our opponents? First off, what we take needs to be ours forever with no strings attached. None of this "until end of turn".

All About Xanathar

Your favorite Beholder and mine, Xanathar takes theft up to 11. Initially, when I saw this card I thought it would be a gimmick, cute but not really that effective. I was wrong. Xanathar is the perfect card for Commander and a great card to talk about for this theme. Having played against it in paper and online in Brawl I've seen so many different build variations that I am truly impressed.

While there are many other similar effects, Xanathar seems to be the best of the bunch all told. Let's talk about basic deck composition and ideas for Xanathar and Xanathar-like decks.

Swamps AND Islands for The Budget King

Wow a revolutionary idea, right? I joke but at the same time, it's criminal how decent a deck Xanathar is with just Islands and Swamps. When I say just Islands and Swamps, I don't mean the degenerate level. But if you want a highly playable Commander deck at the table for the *least* amount of time, money, and effort? Full-on degenerate Xanathar, 50 Island, 49 Swamp. Remember you are not playing one deck, you're playing up to four! Talk about variety.

What if they kill Xanathar? Replay in two turns. What if they kill Xanathar *again*? See you in two turns. I'm not advocating for you to play this commander at pauper level with only Basic Lands, however, it's an exercise to see just how little this deck truly needs to operate.

There are few true staple cards for Xanathar. Strionic Resonator and Lithoform Engine both come to mind. They're not required, but the deck is certainly a lot more fun with them than without. I think it's a huge budget advantage unique to these types of commanders. You can play a "complete deck" without investing significantly in many new cards or needing duplicates of cards you already own but don't wish to purchase again. In terms of bang for your buck you can fill these decks in with mana rocks and maybe a couple of inexpensive protection spells for your Xanathar and then bring it to play.

A King And A Diplomat

Who are you going to attack? The players committing things to the board or the guy playing Islands and Swamps and maybe a mana rock before passing? "Do nothing" decks have a tendency to sneak under the radar a fair amount of the time. Once Xanathar hits the table, choose the player who is most obviously in the lead to draw the least amount of hate. Or, alternatively, ask the table who needs help? Maybe someone wants to draw a land and you can help them dig to the draw they need! As mentioned before this card has demonstrated a contortionist-level of flexibility in multiplayer that is virtually unparalleled. It's impossible NOT to have a potential play or a potential out if Xanathar is doing his thing and remember to play the table! While you won't always know your opponent's deck, they do and sometimes they can tell you the card you need to hit to stop another player.

A Multiplayer Boss, A 1v1 God

In the early and mid-game it's generally the right move to use every single card you can from your opponents. Decks these days tend to have either very tight builds that struggle if just a few key cards are missing or are a little more flexible and feature many functionally similar copies of effects. This means that when you play their deck your version will be just as strong and have just as much access to their deck synergies. However, the most brutal thing you can do with Xanathar late game is to strand a player by leaving an unplayable card, often a land, on top of their deck. Yes, late-game Xanathar turns every opponent's land into a potential Time Walk effect. Talk about god mode!

Is This Deck Casual Or Competitive? It's Both And Neither

The power level of Xanathar-style decks is inherently elastic. Are opponents playing the most powerful and expensive cards possible? So are you. Do opponents have casual, low-powered decks? So do you! This is the best part about theft decks in my opinion. It's also a test for your Commander group as your deck becomes as powerful, fun, or oppressive as your group's build environment. Just like there's always room for Jell-O, there should always be room for a Xanathar deck at the table.

And What About The Inevitable Mirror Match?

Here is where Magic theory goes sideways. I'm pretty sure the Xanathar deck with lots of Islands and Swamps will have an easier time fighting the Xanathar deck with live cards because your opponent can't steal what you don't have. If that isn't an example of "live by the sword, die by the sword" I don't know what is. I've never gotten to experience this match first or second hand so if you have an account please let me know in the comments!

The Fuzzy Math of Steal Effects

Follow me here because this is my own personal Magic math theory. If you use one of your cards to stop one card from your opponent that's a one-for-one trade. If you use only one card and take out two it's a two for one. But when you steal it's a three for one or better. Why? First, if you have a threat that does not belong to you, it needs to be dealt with. If you take away that threat from an opponent now they are down a threat and then down their own answer to remove it. Their deck does not get back a threat or an answer when they do this, at least typically, so that's the fuzzy math making it a virtual three for one. Of course to make it even fuzzier, if you did this with just mana and your commander it's a virtual three for zero. The short of it is that stealing is extremely efficient. Steal early, steal often.

Any Other Criminals Out There?

Yes! Mind Flayer, The Shadow is at the top of my list for new cards to try for this theme either as a commander on its own or as an addition to Xanathar. While you do give up blue for protection, Mind Flayer is a bit hard to remove as it starts out as an Enchantment. A double activation of its trigger would give you six potential cards to play, but the restrictions of permanent spells only, the inability to play lands, and no top-of-deck shenanigans, make me think this will end up being just a less fun Xanathar. It remains to be seen!

Streets of New Capenna Is Coming!

I'm assuming that theft will be taken to a whole new level in Streets and am looking forward to some interesting new mechanics for playing cards that are not mine! What's the biggest Magic "heist" you've ever pulled off?

Find Your Golden Egg: Speculating on Oddities

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

With Easter around the corner, it's time to crack open one of my favorite speculation tricks. But first, a question: when you hear the word "egg," what do you think of?

Easter eggs
Egg prop from the film Alien
Chicken eggs

You may have heard of "easter eggs;" you see them at the end of almost every Marvel movie. The infamous "shawarma" scene and the "collector" scene are my personal favorites. Eggs, in this instance, are cards or mechanics that are included in one set that may hint at something in a future set. Identifying "egg" cards can lead to high-value speculations, as cards tend to shoot up in value when their niche at last finds itself adequately supported.

Howard the Duck shown in Guardians of the Galaxy End Credits

I do think it is important to differentiate eggs from synergies between blocks. A good example would be the hybrid mana symbols in Return to Ravnica block and the synergies with the devotion mechanic in Theros block. While they played well together, that is not what we are looking at today. The reason for this is that it would have been very difficult to target any cards from RtR block for speculation without having prior knowledge of the devotion mechanic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sanctum of All

Finding eggs, then, means looking for cards that seem out of place in a set for one reason or another. Sometimes they are ubiquitous and only seem obvious after a future set is released; sometimes, as with Sanctum for All, they stand out from the set in a big enough way that one questions their inclusion immediately.

Count the Chickens First

Why do we care about eggs? For the answer, look no further than the price graph for Sanctum of All, a bulk rare that has jumped to around $4. These are my favorite specs because they have such a low buy-in that one can make a good bit of money for very little up-front investment.

We do not get these cards in every set, so we need to be good about spotting them. They can often blend in with the chaff. After all, Sanctum did not start out at bulk; it slowly drifted there as players failed to find it worth building around and demand dropped off.

Some other good examples of eggs that ended up as solid gainers:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crucible of Fire

Crucible of Fire - Included in Magic 2015, this card spiked with the release of Dragons of Tarkir (it gained over 200%), though even with this spike it was a $2 card, so one would have had to sold a lot of copies to make any significant profits.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

Stoneforge Mystic - Believe it or not, this card was near bulk before Scars of Mirrodin was released. The only decent equipment to fetch in standard prior to Scars Block was Basilisk Collar, leading Mystic to be picked up for very cheap. One could argue that this card may or may not count as an egg, but given just how few targets it had when initially released, I feel it is valid to count.

Not All Eggs Are Laid Equal

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Intimations

Magic isn't a grocery store. Not all the eggs are fresh.

Sometimes we get a card like Dark Intimations that ends up a dud. One look at that card, though, should have raised red flags immediately, based on how over costed it is as a whole. The only reason I could have seen this card being worth anything would have been if a Planeswalker - Nicol Bolas were spoiled that needed 1 additional loyalty to ultimate.

I wanted to point this out because thanks to success in the past finding these types of cards, some might buy in regardless of how playable the card is. A rotten strategy, indeed!

The Road to the Golden Egg

"How do I spot these eggs?" That is the million dollar question! Speculation being what it is, unfortunately, there is no tried-and-true formula, which makes identifying eggs all the more rewarding. However, there are some things I look for when trying to determine if a card could potentially prove a sleeper hit. I ask myself these questions:

  • Does this card work well with the current mechanics of either this or previous sets?
  • Does this card reference anything in either this or previous sets?
  • If the card is a creature, is its type currently relevant, or does it stick out?
  • Are there any upcoming sets with known themes, archetypes, or creature types that may be relevant to this card?
  • Does Wizards putting this card at this rarity make sense? (This point is more often relevant to the first set in a block that is intended to be drafted with a future set.)

Raise Your Eggspectations

Hopefully, this article can serve as a small guide to help you find the eggs that we know WoTC likes to hide in some sets. Whether this means that you pick up your personal copies of a card that becomes extremely relevant in the future for pennies or that you get speculation targets that you can flip once the rest of the world realizes the value, always remember to keep an open mind when evaluating cards... and notice the little differences that make some more unique than the rest!

Real-world Flavor. Clover, Bee, And Reverie: Fantasy As The Faculty Of Imagination

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

To make a prairie it takes a clover and one bee,

One clover, and a bee,

And revery.

Emily Dickinson, To Make a Prairie

In the last article, we dealt with a bunch of magical creatures whose flavor text quoted literary sources from the real world. This week we'll expand on the topic, this time moving into the realm of another sort of fantasy, namely reverie. The distinction is based on the difference between fantasy meant as the physical creatures from a fantasy world, and the imaginative process itself.

Dragon Whelp (Limited Edition Alpha, 1993)

O to be a dragon … of silkworm size or immense …

Marianne Moore, O to Be a Dragon

Dragon Whelp is a creature, yes, but I’m including it in this second part because the text is not really about dragons. It’s rather about the idea of being a dragon, and therefore it’s a perfect reverie, an act of imagination. The card is a 2/3 flying creature for the cost of four mana. It gets +1/+0 for each red mana you spend (though it's better not exceeding three). It's a decent creature, actually, at least in limited formats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon Whelp

While playability is certainly a plus, The price of the Alpha version is driven by the low print run of Alpha, combined with collectors' demand. Collectors really love dragons.

The flavor text is simple, a small bit from Marianne Moore's 1959 poem. The art by Amy Weber represents a cute puppy-like dragon. It's an almost humorous choice for the subject matter. Many cards in Magic's history have either the illustration or the flavor text intentionally designed to be comical. In this case, the coupling is a bit risky, since the art is entirely cartoonish, whereas the quote evokes a much more grand concept.

Karakas (Legends, 1994)

To make a prairie it takes a clover and one bee,

One clover, and a bee,

And revery.

Emily Dickinson, To Make a Prairie

This one is my all-time favorite Magic flavor quote. It's from the poem To Make a Prairie, by Emily Dickinson. It’s a very short piece composed in free verses. From the artistic point of view, the illustration by Nicola Leonard shows a flatland with a sort of building towering up. It’s actually a real-world building, as the art depicts the Shwedagon Pagoda, a Buddhist monument located in Myanmar. It doesn’t really resemble a prairie, but it doesn’t matter when both the art and the flavor text are such gems. In Magic’s world, Karakas is a city on the plane of Dominaria, and that’s why the illustration doesn’t only show the tower, but a whole town.

Shwedagon Pagoda

Karakas is an auto-include for decks such as Death and Taxes, in Legacy, and one of the most famous lands of this game. It’s extremely versatile, as you can use it both to protect your own creatures from removal and to bounce opponents’ threats. Not to mention all the dirty tricks with enter-the-battlefield abilities on your legendary creatures. It also has advantages in being a land, in that it cannot be countered, and as a colorless card, it’s even more resistant to interaction.

Sacred Nectar (Eighth Edition, 2003)

Over the silver mountains,

Where spring the nectar fountains,

There will I kiss

The bowl of bliss;

And drink my everlasting fill…

Sir Walter Raleigh, The Pilgrimage

Let’s conclude this section with a typical white sorcery. Sacred Nectar gains you four life for two mana. We looked at a different printing of this card in a previous installment. That was the Portal version, quoting Coleridge. The quotation from Coleridge was used on the card again in Starter 1999, and again in Seventh Edition. It was reprinted in Eighth Edition, and again in Ninth Edition with this flavor text. It’s common to see cards receive different flavor texts in different editions. It's less common when they stay real-world quotations. In fact, this is one of the few occurrences of that phenomenon. We might see this again in one of the next pieces.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sacred Nectar

Let’s keep focused on this specific version of Sacred Nectar. Sir Walter Raleigh, the author of The Pilgrimage, was an English soldier and explorer under Elizabeth I. His poem is supposed to be written from the point of view of a man at the point of death. The pilgrimage of the title is that of his soul ascending to heaven. There are very few cards in this game with such an on-theme flavor text, at least from a color perspective. As with the Portal version, the concept of purity (proper of the color white) is clearly expressed. Any player is sure to pick up the meaning, even if they don’t know the poem.

The quote starts with a couple of lines loosely evoking some very distant place. It mentions silver mountains and "nectar fountains." This also works as a reference to the name of the card. As for the "sacred" part, it's described through the usage of the expression "bowl of bliss". The art and the text both represent the same idea expressed on the card. This unity of flavor and expression is what should ideally happen with every card design.

What Kind of Fantasy?

So, what kind of fantasy works better on a Magic card? Fantasy grounded in a physical world, even if made up, or that of pure imagination? Well, truthfully, there is no correct answer. It depends on many factors and overall on personal preferences. From my perspective, I'd say this second type of fantasy is the most effective. Instead of slavishly describing a particular magical creature, such as a zombie or a goblin, it relies on more generic and abstract concepts. It leaves the reader (or in the case of Magic, the player) with more freedom to invent in their own mind.

I find the cards we have just analyzed to be truly majestic in their delicate and suggestive nature. Since Magic cards often suffer from over-precision, both in their names and their arts, a bit of uncertainty in flavor texts sounds appealing to me. What do you think?

Sorry to “Rune” Your Day | Adam Plays Magic

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Enchanté

Welcome back friends and family! This week I'm diving into the digital-only Alchemy format with Naya Runes. My list is hot off the presses from the phenomenal @urlichmtg, albeit with a few small sideboard changes. The deck plays similarly to the Bogles archetype from Modern, jamming a handful of auras onto creature payoffs to make massive threats with keyword soup.

I'm a big fan of this deck in Standard, but the meta has some hostility thanks to the success of Hinata, Dawn-Crowned, which makes all of your auras cost more and slows your engine to a crawl. Alchemy seems to be slightly safer and has far fewer copies of Hinata running around. This lets you take full advantage of an unprepared metagame. Fortunately for those tight on wildcards, porting the deck over from Standard only uses one playset of unique-to-digital cards, Forsaken Crossroads. While these lands are strong, they're ultimately non-essential. Feel free to swap them out for another GW dual land if needed.

In a Given Space, Only the Witch who Cast the Runes Can Use Her Magic.

Now let's actually take a look under the hood. The core of the deck centers around Jukai Naturalist, which makes your enchantments cost one generic mana less, and Runeforge Champion, which not only tutors for a rune aura, but makes them cost a single generic instead of their normal mana cost. With both of these creatures in play, your runes become free to cast.

Between Generous Visitor, Kami of Transience, and Showdown of the Skalds, each of these now-free (or heavily discounted) enchantments puts at least one +1/+1 counter onto the board in addition to its other abilities. These effects stack very quickly. It's not uncommon to cast a creature, then make it the largest body on board with haste, trample, and lifelink in a single turn.

Cleaning up the long game is Hallowed Haunting, which lets you go both wide and tall, often closing out the game with a horde of flying, vigilant spirits. Thanks to Showdown and your 14 cantrips, the deck has a remarkable amount of consistency in achieving its game plan.

We Were Rune-ing for You. We Were ALL Rune-ing for You!

I really just wanted to use another rune pun for this section's header to make my editor groan. Anyway, onto the decklist and video!

Alchemy Naya Runes

Creatures

4 Runeforge Champion
4 Generous Visitor
3 Kami of Transience
4 Jukai Naturalist

Enchantments

4 Rune of Sustenance
2 Rune of Speed
4 Rune of Might
4 Showdown of the Skalds
2 Circle of Confinement
2 Hallowed Haunting

Spells

4 Commune with Spirits

Lands

1 Forest
1 Plains
4 Branchloft Pathway
4 Cragcrown Pathway
1 Needleverge Pathway
4 Overgrown Farmland
2 Sundown Pass
1 Boseiju, Who Endures
1 Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire
4 Forsaken Crossroads

Sideboard

1 Valorous Stance
1 Yasharn, Implacable Earth
2 Circle of Confinement
2 Tamiyo's Safekeeping
1 Boseiju, Who Endures
1 Valorous Stance
1 Rune of Speed
3 Rip Apart
1 Borrowed Time
1 Hallowed Haunting
1 Katilda, Dawnhart Martyr

In Punclusion

The Naya Runes deck is a ton of fun and can lead to some incredible sequences and wild board states. I expect it to be a mainstay with only room to improve as Standard and Alchemy add more powerful enchantments. If you have any questions, comments, or declarations of love and affection, feel free leave a comment below or tweet me at @AdamECohen. I'll catch you all next week.

Not Quite There: A Tameshi Testing Tale

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Every player has a specialty. Jordan is a tempo zealot. It's disconcerting to see Gabriel Nassif playing anything other than a slow control deck. And I am an Aether Vial enthusiast. I love Vial decks and have spent most of my career forcing them in every format. I know what I like, what can I say. However, I have aspirations to be a combo deck designer. Not a combo player; I can do that well enough when I set my mind to it. I want to be able to actually make decent Modern combo decks.

The problem is that I'm terrible at it. I can identify powerful combo interactions well enough and build decks to support them. But they're always missing that certain something that makes a combo deck tick. I'd have never seen how important the now-resurgent Engineered Explosives was to Krark-Clan Ironworks, for example. However, that has never stopped me from trying. Tameshi, Reality Architect really caught my eye this time, and I've been trying to make it work. The title of this article is a spoiler for how that went, but the why was instructive, and hopefully a better combo builder than I can crack the code. Here is my story.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tameshi, Reality Architect

So Much Potential

I mean, just look at Tameshi's text box. He's a value machine. The triggered ability seems like irrelevant text until you realize that the second ability triggers it. This means that the first activation draws a card and retrieves whichever artifact needed. Or an enchantment, which means that it synergizes with Urza's Saga. For one mana, I can break even on lands, draw a card, and set up for a steady stream of constructs. And if I haven't made a land drop yet, I just replay the land and am likely ahead on mana now. Tameshi's an awesome card just begging to be built around!

Long Time Coming

And it actually starts back in 2019. I didn't like Emry, Lurker of the Loch when she was spoiled, and I still don't. Part of that is pure pettiness: Why is she the "Luker of the Loch" rather than the "Luker in the Loch?!" I constantly want to call her that despite the years, and it makes writing these articles a nightmare when it breaks the card tags. I vaguely remember Mark Rosewater being called out on this on his blog and wish it were easier to search for that post.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emry, Lurker of the Loch

Spite aside, I dislike Emry as a value engine, despite being decisively on the losing side of the argument. She's been an intrinsic piece of so many grindy value decks at this point that questioning her inclusion feels a bit silly. But I do because she's so linear that she's easy to blank or even make a liability. Emry is only valuable when you have A) a graveyard and B) castable artifacts in said graveyard that do something when cast. This is just increasing vulnerabilities to graveyard hate and Stony Silence, and since she self-mills, when A) isn't true it's actively bad to cast her.

Head to Head

When I saw Tameshi, I was impressed. So impressed I speculated on the card and bought a bunch of copies. If I could see the value, certainly others would too, decks would get made, the price would rise, and I could profit. Which hasn't happened yet (as the above graph should make clear). However, rather than lament, I am trying to find a use for my investment. And I was really hoping that use would be replacing Emry.

Tameshi has a number of pluses over Emry. He has a few big minuses too. To summarize the pros:

  • Additional point of power and toughness
  • Ability can be used immediately on resolution
  • Works with enchantments too, most notably Urza's Saga
  • Gains additional value from bounce effects
  • Ability is a direct return rather than option to cast

The last point was a really big one since Chalice of the Void is quite the card. The cons are fewer, but they are significant:

  • No cost reduction
  • Ability costs mana to activate
  • Tempo-negative in the long run

The first point is significant, since cost is everything for card power. The last one is a problem, but is mitigated by artifact mana and by artifact decks tending to have both cheap targets and surplus mana. It's certainly close, but my read on the possibilities offered and personal biases pointed toward Tameshi being what I'd hoped for.

An Obvious Start

The obvious way to test my theory was to replace Emry with Tameshi in existing decks. Fortunately for me, Emry is only played in a few decks. The most prominent fair deck is 8-Cast, which uses Thought Monitor and Thoughtcast to continuouly dump artifacts into play and then win via massive Constructs. As it's a Saga deck and the interaction between Saga and Tameshi was where my mind went initially, I thought it the perfect place to start.

Tameshi 8-Cast, test deck

Creatures

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Tameshi, Reality Architect

4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

4 Thought Monitor

Sorceries

4 Thoughtcast

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

4 Moonsnare Prototype

4 Springleaf Drum

1 Aether Spellbomb

1 Relic of Progenitus

1 Shadowspear

3 Nettlecyst

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel

4 Urza's Saga

2 Otawara, Soaring City

8 Island

I went for a version of the deck that was more Emry-focused than traditional Affinity. And I was confused by the results.

Cue the Questions

The deck was very different from the original version. Not good-different nor bad-different. Just different-different. Without Emry, the deck did a lot less in the early turns. However, this didn't affect the way games played out very much, as Emry was just durdling in the first place. This is a function of the list's design rather than an indictment of Tameshi.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Saga

As the game went long, Tameshi became quite good. Recurring Saga's was as awesome as advertised. So long as I had Tameshi, it was impossible to run out of Constructs, eventually overwhelming any opponent. I never ran out of cards either, but again, that was something this deck never did in the first place. Bouncing a land was surprisingly not a problem. Replacing an in-play Saga with one from the yard negated the normal tempo-loss of the third chapter quite effectively. However, even when bouncing a real land, I usually just played it as the land for the turn since the deck was so land-light, effectively mitigating the drawback.

However, that didn't change the overall feeling that this deck was a compromise. And a clunky one. I didn't feel like I was maximizing Tameshi's potential, nor was he fully contributing to the decks strategy. So I went tinkering.

Tuned It to Death

I didn't have a specific end-goal in mind other than trying to make Tameshi as integral to the deck as possible without compromising the essential artifact-hemorrhage which defines 8-Cast and Affinity more generally. And that snowballed out of control until this monstrosity emerged:

Tameshi Overtuned, test deck

Companion

1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

Creatures

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Tameshi, Reality Architect

2 Sai, Master Thopterist

3 Azusa, Lost but Seeking

4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

4 Thought Monitor

1 Meloku, the Clouded Mirror

Sorceries

4 Thoughtcast

Artifacts

4 Mox Amber

4 Mishra's Bauble

4 Moonsnare Prototype

4 Springleaf Drum

3 Portable Hole

1 Aether Spellbomb

1 Relic of Progenitus

1 Shadowspear

1 Pithing Needle

3 Nettlecyst

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel

4 Urza's Saga

4 Razortide Bridge

4 Thornglint Bridge

4 Tanglepool Bridge

4 Glimmervoid

I had just enough self-awareness left to realize that I'd turned 8-Cast into a Yorion deck with Meloku, the Clouded Mirror in Modern and that brought me to a jarring halt. I've put the deck down as I don't think my trajectory was healthy.

Mea Culpa

My thinking had been that the deck is dependent on the Constructs to win, and could use an alternative, which led me to Sai. I also wanted interaction, which logically pointed to Portable Hole. The problem was that I didn't want to cut anything, so I just made it a Yorion deck and tweaked the mana. Noticing that the deck was slow with the tap lands and that she combos with Tameshi to remove his drawback, I added Azusa. Since I had so many legends I could play Mox Amber as fixing, and to get more milage from Tameshi's first ability I could pull out another alternative win in Meloku!

All of which left me with an amazingly clunky pile that struggled to actually do anything. The density of impactful plays to draw spells is significantly lower, the synergies aren't as potent as expected, and the deck is way too slow in general. There may be something here, but it's not this deck.

An Ulterior Motive

So I changed gears. If Tameshi was surprisingly decent to use in fair decks despite feeling underutilized, perhaps combo applications would make more sense. Tameshi returning Lotus Bloom was potentially more powerful than recurring Saga if I could figure out a decent payoff. Which wasn't coming to mind, as the combo isn't infinite. It's more akin to Rain of Filth than Ironworks, and so I needed to figure out something else.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underworld Breach

While I was pondering my options, I did try out Tameshi as an Emry replacement in Grinding Breach. It was close, but Emry was definitely better for setting up the combo, primarily due to the self-mill. Getting all the pieces at the right time and in the right zones has been a failing of the deck and Tameshi didn't help. He was closer in the aggro-control versions pioneered by Jiggywiggy, but still felt worse. It may be plausible with a redesign, but I don't know that it would actually be worthwhile.

Seeking the Answer

Using what I learned about Tameshi's place in combo following the Breach test, I started assembling cards to make comboing off with Tameshi plausible. Since the combo is neither infinite nor generating Storm count, it would have to facilitate some other cards winning the game. And do so in a way that was actually worth pursuing rather than being a worse version of another deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Life From the Loam

My thinking began with Tameshi returning lands to my hand. I could throw them at my opponent in some fashion. However, Life from the Loam and Seismic Assault already do that much cheaper. Conflagrate could use all the mana generated to get the opponent most of the way there then finish them with flashback. However, Dredge already functionally does that, and more cheaply. Also faster, because Bloom comes off suspend on turn 4 at earliest and Tameshi's combo potential is limited by the number of lands in play so the later the better.

Acceleration is the answer to comboing faster, but I'd have to rely on land search exclusively for the acceleration to be usable. And if I'm planning to drop lots of lands into play, Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle suddenly looks like a strong win condition. And that got the ball rolling.

Seems Plausible

I needed protection for the combo, as it happens at sorcery speed and can be disrupted by Lightning Bolt. The best at that is Teferi, Time Raveler. If I'm going Bant colors, then I could use Wargate as a Bloom tutor. If I'm using Valakut as a kill condition, I need Dryad of the Ilysian Grove. I also need a way to immediately combo into Valakut after turning all my lands into Bloom activations. Which brought to mind Cultivator Colossus. All that eventually yielded the following deck:

Tameshi Combo, test deck

Creatures

4 Sakura-Tribe Elder

4 Dryad of the Ilysian Grove

4 Tameshi, Reality Architect

4 Cultivator Colossus

Planeswalkers

4 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

4 Growth Spiral

3 Summoner's Pact

4 Wargate

Artifacts

4 Lotus Bloom

Lands

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

4 Flooded Strand

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Breeding Pool

2 Temple Garden

4 Forest

2 Island

1 Plains

And you know? This deck is surprisingly not bad. You can accelerate into a big turn on turn 4 quite consistently, sometimes sufficiently to drop a huge Colossus without Tameshi. Unless Dryad is out, that won't win the game with Valakut and then you're on the Tinker gameplan, but that is sometimes good enough.

The mana base is still quite rough because Valakut is basically wasted mana. I'm not sure how to fix that without compromising something else, however. Perhaps I should forgo the fetchlands for an Amulet-style manabase.

Reality Check

I was actually prepared to go ahead with article thinking I'd really found something here, but thinking on the mana base problem brought me to a halt. Again. There's a huge flaw with this deck. What I've made here is a more elaborate, slower, and therefore worse version of Amulet Titan. Same general accelerate into lands for the win plan, many similar cards, but without the speed and streamlining which makes Amulet good. And that's enormously frustrating as it feels like this deck feels So Freaking Close to being real but I just can't get around it being worse Amulet. And that really sucks.

Always a Catch

The problem with brewing any new deck is the risk of unconsciously treading old ground. A new deck needs to be better than an existing one to get traction. Why bother making a switch to something equally good that you don't know as well? Right now it seems that Tameshi is stuck in that void. It's so close to being great, but actually unlocking that potential is proving beyond me. Hopefully, the answer is out there and some more creative minds will deduce the answer. And maybe even let me move my extra copies.

Kamigawa Card Prices: Champions vs. Neon Dynasties

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Kamigawa: Neon Dyansty is upon us! Players are activating ninjutsu, checking for modified creatures, and flipping enchantments into creatures left and right. Thus far, it appears the set is going to be another success for Wizards of the Coast.

True to my New Years’ Resolution, I have once again picked up drafting on Arena with the release of this new set. I’ve got a half dozen drafts under my belt thus far, and while my beginning was a bit on the rocky side, I’ve slowly developed some confidence in my picks and deck building. My biggest success has come when including red in my draft deck, as my two trophies so far were a B/R deck and a W/R deck.

Or maybe I just win trophies when I can draft Atsushi, the Blazing Sky because this mythic has shown up in both decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atsushi, the Blazing Sky

This dragon, however, isn’t the most valuable card in the set (ignoring alternate arts, foils, etc.). It’s not a planeswalker, nor is it any mythic rare for that matter. What is the most valuable card so far, and how does it compare to the most valuable card from the original Champions of Kamigawa? Read on to find out!

Champions of Kamigawa: A Brief History Lesson

The original Champions of Kamigawa was released back in September 2004. Times were quite different in the world of MTG back then—there was no Arena, there were no mythic rares, and there definitely weren’t planeswalkers.

I thought this would be a fun chance to dust off my InQuest magazine collection to research what Champions of Kamigawa prices were like when the set first released. Technically this information would have been in the October 2004 issue. But I glanced at those prices and it looks like they were fairly inaccurate, having not reflected more than a couple weeks being on the market. Remember, the market evolved a lot more slowly back then, in a time when winning decklists were readily available prior to the set’s paper printing!

So I turned to the December 2004 issue, number 116, for a more accurate reflection of Champions of Kamigawa prices shortly after release. It helps that this issue boasts 50,000 card prices and how to dominate tournaments with Magic’s “Secret Weapon.”

Without looking, I tried to recall nearly 18 years ago to when the set was relatively new. I brainstormed the cards I remember from the set that dominated tournament tables in an attempt to guess the most valuable. From memory, these would be Cranial Extraction, Gifts Ungiven, and Boseiju, Who Shelters All. How did I do? Let’s take a look inside!

The most valuable card from the set as of December 2004 was indeed Cranial Extraction!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cranial Extraction

I remembered this one distinctly as being the card to open for maximum value. I didn’t play competitive Magic back in 2004, and I never once cast this card in a game of Magic. Nowadays, I don’t even think it’s particularly strong. But back then, the ability to completely annihilate an opponent’s key combo piece or win condition must have been pretty powerful. InQuest prices the card at $10-$15 but I distinctly remember it peaking in the $20 range back in the day.

Next is a four-way tie, with each card worth $8-$12 (thereby rounding out the top 5):

Boseiju, Who Shelters All (nailed it!)
Gifts Ungiven (nailed this one, too!)
Time Stop (I completely forgot about this one!)
Yosei, the Morning Star (OK, I didn’t think of this cycle of creatures, but I guess they were powerful)

That’s five rares worth roughly $10-$15 from the set, not to mention an array of cards in the $5 range (meaning it would have been worth opening one of these in your booster pack, financially speaking). Over time I’m sure these values evolved as well. I know Isamaru, Hound of Konda made waves in competitive Magic. Kokusho, the Evening Star was also very powerful. And who could forget the original printing of Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

In summary, the most valuable card in the set was a powerful, black sorcery that exiled an opponent’s most important deck piece. Following that was a land that enabled your spells to be uncounterable, a timeless card tutoring engine, a novel (at the time) ability to abruptly end a turn, and a sweet, legendary creature. Not bad for top five.

Back to the Future with Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty

Let’s fast forward back to today, where players are getting their hands on Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty cards for the first time. I fully expect prices to evolve more over the next month, but as I mentioned before, with the advent of Arena and widespread adoption of TCGplayer, prices tend to stabilize much more quickly when a new set is released. We can see which cards are dominant via Arena before the paper cards are even available in stores!

So what are the top five most valuable (non-foil, non-promo, non-alternate art) cards from Magic’s newest set?

According to Card Kingdom, the leader is a rare land, which coincidentally also contains the name “Boseiju!” It looks like Boseiju has gone from “sheltering all” to “enduring” in a very productive way, because the most valuable card in the set is currently Boseiju, Who Endures.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boseiju, Who Endures

Rather than making spells uncounterable, Boseiju has taken on a more aggressive stance, granting the ability to channel it to destroy an artifact, enchantment, or nonbasic land. While the land itself is legendary, I can definitely see the merits of loading up on a few of these in your tournament deck—its versatility is unbound, and in today’s competitive play, it’s virtually guaranteed you’ll have multiple targets to destroy. This card is basically like the double-faced cards from Zendikar Rising, except there’s no life to pay to have this land come into play untapped.

Currently its retail price is $30—at rare, I’m not sure it will hold this value for the duration of its time in Standard. Once supply saturates the market, it should be closer to $20.

The next four most valuable cards are all mythic rares from the set:

Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant - $21.99 (you pay for the mouthful)
The Wandering Emperor - $15.99 (The Wanderer’s face, at last)
Kaito Shizuki - $10.99 (I opened this in pack two of a draft and passed it because I had drafted 0 blue or black cards… oops?)
Kodama of the West Tree - $7.99 (finally completing the Kodama Tree cycle)

It's interesting to see how dramatically the prices fall for the most valuable cards in the set. There's a lone $30 rare, a $20-ish creature, two planeswalkers in the $10-$15 range, and then number five is already down to $8. It shakes out such that if you open a rare from your booster pack and it’s not Boseiju, you have a pretty low chance of breaking even on the booster. You could pull Otawara, Soaring City and get your money back—it currently retails for around $7. Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire ($5.99) or Farewell ($5) could also work.

Basically, if you open a rare from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, you are hoping it’s a land, Farewell, or Mirror Box.

It’s interesting to see how much of the set’s value is concentrated in the top couple cards. It felt like values were distributed a little more evenly back in Champions of Kamigawa, at least around the set’s initial release. I suspect this is driven by the advent of the mythic rare, the foil, the alternate art, the etched, and all the other alternate printings Wizards of the Coast has created. No longer do you want to simply open a specific rare. Now you’re effectively purchasing a scratch-off ticket where you lose most often, but have a chance of winning big with a special pull.

Kind of sounds like Pokémon, doesn’t it?

The More Kamigawa Changes...

I had fun comparing and contrasting the most valuable cards of Champions of Kamigawa circa December 2004 with the most valuable cards of Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty of today. I hope you enjoyed the trip back in time with me.

We uncovered a couple noteworthy trends. First, it’s funny how Boseiju’s facelift was strong enough to keep it in the top five most valuable cards of the set, just like it was back in 2004. In 2004, the other valuable cards were strong spells or iconic, lengedary creatures. Nowadays, we still have iconic, legendary creatures in the top five, but the sorceries and instants were replaced by planeswalkers, which of course didn’t exist back in 2004.

Mythic rares also didn’t exist back in 2004, and I believe that also has a hand in stacking most value of the set in the top couple of cards of Neon Dynasty, whereas it was a flatter field of rares back in the day. It reinforces my belief that Magic has gone the way of Pokémon when it comes to value and collectability. Opening a non-foil, non-etched, non-alternate art rare means you probably don’t get much value anymore. Now you need to hit the “EX”, “rainbow rare”, “GX”, etc. of Magic to really pull something valuable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Meloku the Clouded Mirror

I suppose this helps make the game less expensive for those just wanting to jam together a competitive pile of sixty cards to battle at a tournament. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however who is playing in tournaments these days? With the recent, major changes to organized play, it doesn’t seem like the tournament scene is as robust as it once was… at least, not on paper. And if you’re jamming tournaments on Arena, you don’t have to spend a dime on a single card.

In fact, that’s my favorite aspect of Arena. I don’t like spending money on new cards for reasons detailed above, but I do appreciate the occasional draft. Arena lets me enjoy a few drafts (or more) to appreciate a new set’s flavor and mechanics without sinking a dime into the hobby—and without stepping foot inside a store. Good for me, but probably not ideal for local game shops. It’ll be interesting to see how the hobby continues to evolve going forward in the world’s “new normal.” I won’t try to predict the future—only time will tell!

The Cycles of Magic: The Gathering

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

What Cycles Teach Us About Magic Design

Cycles have been an important part of the game of Magic since the very first set, Limited Edition Alpha. What exactly is a cycle? Mark Rosewater defined a cycle in the article Zen and the Art of Cycle Maintenance as "a series of cards that are tied together mechanically." Cycles can also be tied together by flavor, though Rosewater notes that isn't always required. Perhaps the most famous cycle in Magic are the five boons from Alpha:

Over time, cycles have evolved and gotten more complex and more nuanced, but they still have the same goals:

  • Provide mechanical identity for the cards in the set
  • Add an aesthetic element to the set
  • Allow space for something not normally done
  • Establish signposts for archetypes and deck construction (mostly in Limited, but occasionally in Constructed)
  • Create expectations for the players

How do cycles accomplish these goals? Let's look at the different types of cycles to try and answer this.

The Different Types of Cycles

Normally, cycles exist in the same rarity. We can think of these as horizontal cycles. Sometimes there are cycles that climb the chain in rarity. These are vertical cycles. One of the reasons the Invasion Block is one of my favorites is because it makes excellent use of cycles to convey the themes of the block. The theme of Invasion was multicolor, with an emphasis on allied color pairs and allied color shards in the first two sets. As we will see, the third set, Apocalypse mixed this up a bit.

The themes in the first set, Invasion, were expressed at common rarity in several ways. Most obviously, they were seen through two horizontal cycles. The first was a cycle of two-mana-value allied color 2/2 Knight creatures. The second was a cycle of mono-colored one-drop 1/1s with activated abilities in their allied colors.

Allied Color Knight Cycle

Each of the Knights has protection from their colors' mutual enemy. Galina's Knight for example has protection from red. This provides a mechanical identity, cluing us in that we want to be looking at allied color pairs. It adds an aesthetic element in that it is reinforcing Magic's color pie, one of the defining characteristics of the game. It allows space for something not normally done in that each color pair is getting a Knight with protection from its enemy color. At the time, protection was an ability used sparingly, most frequently appearing in white. The mechanical identity and focus on allied color pairs provides direction for deckbuilding, and created expectations for players for future sets in the block.

Apprentice Cycle

The Apprentice cycle are mono-colored 1/1 wizard creatures with two activated abilities, one in each of their allied colors. The cycle is unique in that it is a horizontal cycle, but each Apprentice is also part of a vertical cycle as well. The vertical cycle includes the Apprentices at common and Masters at rare. In addition to the in-set cycle, the Apprentices are part of not one, but two megacycles—cycles spread across more than one set. The first megacycle is a vertical cycle spread between Invasion and Planeshift. Planeshift introduces Battlemages at uncommon rarity. The megacycle shows the progression that an apprentice of each wizard order takes on their way up to master.

Sunscape Megacycle

This provides an interesting and flavorful mechanical identity and helps tie together the first two sets of the block. The Apprentices are also part of a second megacycle, which will tie the first set in with the third set, Apocalypse.

Apprentice/Disciple Megacycle

Where Invasion established caring about allied-color pairs and shards, Apocalypse was all about enemy color pairs and wedges. To tie the two ideas together, The cycle of Apprentices from Invasion was tied together in a megacycle with a cycle of wizards called Disciples from Apocalypse.

Disciple Cycle

Like the Apprentices, the Disciples are a horizontal cycle of mono-colored one-drop 1/1 Wizards with two activated abilities. Where the Apprentices have allied-color activated abilities, the Disciples have enemy-color activated abilities. Each group acts as a horizontal cycle in their respective sets but comes together to form a megacycle bridging the block together.

So far, we've looked at horizontal, vertical, and megacycles, but what other kinds of cycles are there?

Other Types of Cycles

In addition to the boon cycle, Limited Edition Alpha introduced a number of other cycles in the very first Magic set. A two-card cycle is typically done in mirror fashion, with each card mirroring the other in some way. The two most iconic mirrored cycles in Alpha are White Knight and Black Knight, and Earthquake and Hurricane.

Alpha Mirrored Cycles


Where White Knight and Black Knight are almost identical in terms of function, Earthquake and Hurricane have slight mechanical differences while still being a mirrored cycle. Earthquake does damage to non-flying creatures and Hurricane does damage to flying creatures, (both also hit players).

Alpha also introduced two other kinds of cycles, one which we see quite often, and one which is a little more unique. The first is colorless or artifact cycles. We see these most commonly in land cycles, like in the first dual lands, and in the recent cycle of legendary lands in Kamigawa Neon Dynasty.

Neon Dynasty Legendary Lands

These lands check off all the boxes in terms of flavor, mechanical identity, and new design space that you could want in a cycle like this. They've generated much hype, particularly Boseiju, Who Endures, which is probably the most desirable card in the set.

Mono-Colored Cycles

More unique than colorless or artifact cycles, which we see in nearly every set in some way, are mono-color cycles. A mono-color cycle is typically a horizontal cycle of cards all of the same color, which each have an effect on a different color. There's no better example of this than Alpha's Circles of Protection.

Circles of Protection

This cycle has been riffed on in various ways over the years but remains the defining example of a mono-colored cycle.

Three and four-color cycles share much in common with the cycles we've already discussed. For excellent examples of three-color cycles, I'd check out the Shards of Alara and Khans of Tarkir sets for examples. There's one last type of cycle for us to discuss, and it's the largest of them all.

Mega-Mega Cycles

As silly as the name may sound, Mega-mega cycles refer to cycles spread across numerous sets. The best example of a cycle of this kind is the mythic swords.

Mythic Swords

Stretching across dozens of sets, and nearly two decades of time, the sword cycle began with Sword of Fire and Ice and Sword of Light and Shadow both first introduced in Darksteel. The swords all share common attributes of mana value, equip costs, and granting protection from two different colors. Now printed in a horizontal cycle at mythic rare, the cycle is so old that the original printings of the first two actually preceded the existence of the mythic rarity by several years, (Darksteel came out in 2004, and mythic rarity wasn't introduced until Shards of Alara four years later).

Where each sword is unique, is that they have special abilities when the creature equipped with them deals damage to a player. The abilities are tied mechanically to the colors from which the swords grant protection. Sword of Fire and Ice, for example, grants protection from red and blue. When it connects, it allows you to shock something, and draw a card. Both abilities are right at home in the wheelhouses of their respective related colors.

The swords are resonant and flavorful, and each does something quite unique. What's more, since the first two were released, they have created an overwhelming expectation among players to see the cycle of them completed (There are eight at the time of this writing).

Approaching the End of the Cycle

So far, we've seen that cycles matter for creating mechanical identity, adding aesthetic elements, and providing shape to the sets they're in. We've also seen how they can shape the identity of Magic itself. Part of that is because cycles allow space to do things not normally done. Cycles can also lead to sometimes overwhelming expectations on the part of the players. The only piece which we have yet to discuss is how cycles help establish archetypes and impact deck construction.

How Cycles Matter In Limited

For Limited, the most important cycle in any Magic set of modern design is the uncommon Limited signposts. This cycle, typically of 5-10 cards, identifies the possible Limited archetypes available to draft or assemble in the set. I discussed the 10 Kamigawa Neon Dynasty Limited signposts in my article on Limited Preparation. As I said there, Limited signposts do a great job representing what a color or color pair cares about strategically. This can help guide you during a draft or during deckbuilding.

Do Cycles Matter in Constructed?

In my experience, cycles matter a great deal less in Constructed than they do in Limited. There are exceptions to this though. For example, in tribal sets, where the signposts will often be tied to a particular tribe or class, cycles can have a great deal of impact on Standard. One example of this was Dark Ascension-era Standard. The two-color lords introduced in the set all beefed up the decks of their respective tribes. While certain tribes were a good deal more competitive than others, mostly due to other cards of those tribes, the Dark Ascension lords all quickly slotted into their respective decks.

Cycling Down

We've looked at a number of different types of cycles, what they are, and how those cycles shape the look and feel of the sets they're in. In some cases, we've looked at how those cycles helped shape the mechanics and aesthetics of Magic generally. Of all the types of cycles we've looked at, what was your favorite? What are your favorite cycles of cards from throughout Magic's history? What incomplete cycles would you like to see finished? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

Tips For the Tournament-Goer

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Since I have an event coming up this weekend, I thought I'd cover some common tournament situations and easy ways to avoid having a bad day. These are all drawn from my experience judging events and having conversations with players and other judges. This isn't meant to be a be-all guide to maximizing EV. Rather, my goal is to help players achieve a generally enjoyable tournament experience.

Finish the Decklist Before the Tournament

One of the most common problems I see at events is a player rushing to finish their decklist. I cannot stress this enough: get it done beforehand. Not only does working on the decklist at the event potentially leak information, rushing through the process can lead to silly errors. I've seen a fair number of Decklist Problems awarded Game Losses because a player was in a rush and wrote the wrong card name or quantity. The vast majority of the time, players have their decks figured out at least the night before, so knock out that decklist before bedtime! Decklist.org is a great resource for this if the tournament uses paper decklists.

Take a Look, It's in a Book

I know the Magic Tournament Rules aren't exactly light reading. However, I'd recommend looking over at least Sections 4.1-4.8, which cover most of how players interact with one another. I talked some about 4.2 Shortcuts a few weeks ago.

Section 4.5 Triggered Abilities is also very important:

Players are expected to remember their own triggered abilities; intentionally ignoring one is Cheating. Players are not required to point out the existence of triggered abilities that they do not control, though they may do so if they wish.

Magic Tournament Rules

First, this means "Chalice checking" an opponent's Chalice of the Void in hopes that they miss the trigger is 100% legal. There's an entire article about whether or not that's "sporting," but I'll leave that one to someone else.

Second, this means that letting an opponent miss triggers is the only lapse a player can intentionally make. Otherwise, all players should do their best to maintain an accurate game state. Knowingly breaking a rule, or letting an opponent break a rule, to gain an advantage is capital-C Cheating and earns a Disqualification.

Tools of the Trade

Any responsible player has the right accessories for whatever deck they're playing. Make sure to bring dice for those Hardened Scales counters or any necessary tokens for Urza, Lord High Artificer decks. This helps everybody maintain a clear board state, which prevents all kinds of errors. Similarly, every deck cares about life totals, so be sure to have pen and paper (or a Boogie Board or something). If I'm called as a judge to resolve a life total dispute, I'm likely to agree with the person who has things written down over the person using a spindown. Note that at Competitive or Professional Rules Enforcement Level, tracking life with pen and paper is not optional.

Self-Care Is Important

Tournament days sometimes go long. Even smooth events can run 10+ hours a day before the cut to Top 8. Get breakfast on the way in. Bring snacks. Drink water. Fit in a dinner break if at all possible.

Getting enough sleep the night before an event is also hugely important. I'm guilty of not following this advice. It turns out that staying up till 3:00 AM playing Commander with friends I haven't seen in months is very fun. But it will hammer your tournament performance.

Deck-Care Is Important, Too

Like Decklist Problems mentioned earlier, Deck Problems are both common and avoidable. Keep any cards that aren't specifically part of the main deck and sideboard in another deckbox. Promos handed out as part of the event, double-faced cards (DFCs) of cards in your deck, or damaged cards that were proxied are the only other cards that can be in the deckbox. Also, keep track of cards! Make sure to collect any auras enchanting opponents' permanents or that they gained control of. Check the area before leaving a table to ensure all cards are accounted for.

Marked Cards penalties start as a Warning but can upgrade to a Game Loss. Luckily, most problems leading to a Marked Cards penalty can be avoided by having good sleeves. Even the best brands still suffer regular wear and tear, so it's generally a good idea to check everything out before leaving the house. Replace any torn or otherwise damage sleeves ahead of time and skip the headache later. Bring extra sleeves, ideally from the same box. Dragon Shields come in boxes of 100 with a few extras, enough for your main deck, sideboard, and several accidents. Sleeves' corners bend unevenly depending on shuffling technique, and sufficiently bad bends can render cards marked.

For decks with any double-faced cards like Delver of Secrets, pick up some checklist cards. While sleeves might look opaque at home, they may be a bit translucent under different lights. If I can see the back of a double-faced card through sleeves, I'll almost always upgrade to Game Loss.

On Alters

Ask the head judge to approve any altered cards before the event starts. I know, I know - with all the Secret Lairs and weird card treatments, defining what "looks like" a real Magic card gets harder and harder. Still, until the altered card policy changes, we have a few points to abide by. The art can't obscure the card's name or mana cost, the card still has to be recognizable as itself, and the art can't contain any strategic advice.

For example, I wouldn't allow this Blood Moon alter from Reddit user /u/bufonia1 because it's not immediately identifiable from across the table. This Mayael the Anima alter from /u/lemondrop_4 is fine, though, since the card is definitely still Mayael.

Cleanup

With these handy dandy tips, have fun cruising to the next GP Top 8!*
*This is not a guarantee. I am not legally responsible for tournament results.

Next week, we'll wrap up the layers series, covering color-changing, ability-altering, and power- and/or toughness-changing effects. In the meantime, feel free to reach out on Twitter or our Insider Discord with any questions.

Question of the week: What's the pack 1 pick 1 breakfast for the morning of a tournament?

Ten (or More!) Commander Cards Under the Radar February Edition

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Flexibility. Flavor. Fun. Frequency. Fpower(or just Power). These are the metrics I use when considering these recommendations. Some cards are nuanced and deck specific, but others are generally strong and simply not seeing enough play. In either case, I present you with February's top 10! Click here for January.

Is Narrow Removal Still Removal?

By the numbers, Isolate is a playable card. EDREC lists ten top 100 permanents Isolate removes. Most of them are Elves except for Sol Ring. But if you check the Top 100 per color, you see plenty of additional one mana targets: four in blue, five in black, six in red, ten in green, and eleven in white. Isolate turns out to be an extremely flexible piece of removal, hitting numerous potential targets, all at the low cost of one mana. It's a little bit like Swords to Plowshares and a little bit like Nature's Claim and can fill in a partial role. For me, the card always has a floor of "I can always kill a Sol Ring at least." Is that enough to justify Isolate in every white deck? No. But if you know your local meta well, consider how many one mana permanents you see. Keep a special eye out for rare but not unheard-of one-mana commanders. This card can definitely be a silver bullet in that case.

Deck Manipulation and Infinite Protection

Soothsaying turns every single leftover mana into a resource, every turn. It works extremely well with untap effects like Wilderness Reclamation so you're getting huge value every turn. Card draw is valuable, but card selection can be almost as important. If you're drawing the wrong cards every turn suddenly card draw isn't so good. Soothsaying guarantees good cards by either digging deep or completely reshuffling your pile. Did I mention it costs only ONE mana to cast? Furthermore, you can protect key cards from mill effects, and the increasingly common exile or cast from library effects of cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Xanathar, Guild Kingpin. It draws comparisons to Sensei's Divining Top. Top is a strong card and you can definitely consider Soothsaying a worse Top, but, it's a Top that can also be pitched to Force of Will or Force of Negation as needed.

What can I say about Whirlwind Denial except that it's my new favorite counterspell at three mana? I think it's saved more of my games recently than any other card. It's not quite a hard counterspell but paying four extra mana is generally impossible before turn eight. This counters pretty much everything: activated abilities, triggered abilities, and all spells. Oh and for the entire table. You really get to dictate a lot of game situations, including canceling infinite combos at various different steps, denying other players from drawing cards, or activating planeswalkers. This card has essentially replaced Disallow for me and that card makes the top 100 EDHREC list for blue. Give it a shot!

Don't Be Cruel, Be Heartless

I think this card is starting to see an uptick in play. The "drawback" can actually be the primary way to force creatures directly into your graveyard for triggers. It's extremely powerful in a variety of combos but goes perfectly with Acererak the Archlich as your commander. Consider the following engine with Heartless: Acererak+Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder+Bastion of Remembrance becomes pay B: Each opponent loses three life, you gain one life, and venture into the dungeon. Of course, going into the dungeon can generate cards, treasure, and creatures to continue the value. There are a fair number of other cards that can be subsituted for either Endrek or Bastion, or that combine with Acererak and Heartless to generate piles of tokens, damage, mana, etc. Outside of abusing Heartless with Acererak, it's a fairly unique card. There's an Enchantment deck based around Tatsunari, Toad Rider that desperately wants Heartless and there are a variety of graveyard pile decks that Heartless synergizes with perfectly if that's your thing. Clearly, the card has untapped potential and can be used in a variety of creative ways.

The End? Not Yet!

Red has always been a bit of a hard color identity to pin down, besides being the aggressive damage-dealing color. Glorious End is definitely a color defining card. High risk, high reward. You can actually pair it up with other red Time Walk effects like Warrior's Oath and Final Fortune to continue to take turns and dodge losing...until you can't or play a Sundial of the Infinite. The beauty of Glorious End is that you can use it on your opponent's turn to exile anything they are doing. It's not quite a Time Walk in multiplayer but it is effectively a powerful counterspell that can end a variety of situations.

Is putting yourself on a one turn clock worth dictating the flow of the game? Well, was the game effectively ending anyways? If so, why not give yourself and the table one more turn? If you're about to win the next turn it's an obvious home run, but, what if you're playing for points? That elevates the card considerably in my opinion and will win diplomatic points in the future.

Everyone Gets an Untap

Candelabra of Tawnos is a truly impressive card that I am very lucky to own. I'm positive Candelabra would be in a lot of decks if the price tag was not so out of reach for most players. However, there's a Candelabra lite that lives in the bulk bin and is almost as strong if you're playing green! Double activations of utility lands, extra mana from Karoo lands, and Wild Growth are just half the upside. There is also tremendous utility if playing a team-based variant or simply politics. We've all been in a game where someone says "If only I had one more mana, I could have stopped X." Well, the Magus allows you to give another player that one extra mana if you trust them to use it wisely. Of course, this is where the political angle of the Magus comes into play. If you know your fellow players well enough you can aid the weakest player and expect help in return. Keeping the board at parity is in the interest of the playgroup but some groups have a different play ethos. That's fine because you can exploit that as well. Put the player who is ahead even more ahead to focus the table's attention where it ought to be.

Instill Energy is way underplayed. There are a considerable number of green commanders in the top 100 that either want haste, have a tap ability you would like to double activate, or have Enchantment/Aura synergy, or all three. Overall Auras are looked down upon because they open you up to getting two-for-one'd. However, the benefit here is literally double the effect and a turn sooner. In my experience, most groups are not running enough spot removal. When that's the case, this card is pure value for one green mana. It also counters a card I'm going to suggest later in this article. Try it!

Multi-Colored Mentions

Replicate is decent. A Clone effect for three mana is about average. If you have a great enters the battlefield (ETB) trigger, you can get it again and have another body too. The real draw, however, is Repudiate. Two mana to counter an ETB is very nice and the number of things this interacts with is extremely high. Repudiate // Replicate is a very flexible card that can go in a large number of different decks as a replacement for recursion and control effects. If you need to free up a card slot consider turning a counterspell and recursion effect into RR and that card. There is also a lot of tech for things like Lotus Field, where countering your own trigger is massively beneficial. Giving up five percent of power for 100% more flexibility is generally a pretty good trade!

Everyone Loves Artifacts

Arena of Ancients is a colorless answer to a lot of commanders. As previously mentioned sometimes keeping a commander in play but neutralized is a much stronger strategy than sending it back to the command zone. I can definitely see Arena in a Stax-style deck. Outside of using it to keep commanders tapped, there are a large number of legendary creatures seeing play. At best this is a three colorless mana pseudo-boardwipe. At worst? They have a commander with a passive ability that will continue to trigger but at least it's stuck tapped. I mean, who plays Instill Energy?

Zuran Orb deserves a special article all by itself. This was a truly remarkable card when it debuted in Ice Age and it was loved and hated by many. Back then, sacrificing even one land could buy you another turn. In Commander, it is less likely that sacrificing one land will do the trick, but sacrificing a few can let you live to see another draw step. Of course, that is not where the true power of Orb is in 2022. There are so many "when you gain life" triggers printed on cards these days, and primarily white life gain decks are completely viable and budget-friendly. On top of large amounts of life gain triggers, Orb has tremendous synergy with cards like Tithe, Knight of the White Orchid and of course Land Tax to keep a steady stream of lands flowing. Remember, pack more Artifact hate!

Commander in 2022 Is off to A Strong Start!

Have you made a new Commander deck for 2022? I've worked on updating my Norin the Wary, Derevi, Empyrial Tactician and Ardenn, Intrepid Archaeologist + Kydele, Chosen of Kruphix decks. What decks have you worked on this year? Let me know in the comments!

Real-world Flavor. Fantastic Beasts from Literature to Magic

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Before my eyes was a horrible monster, worthy to figure in the legends of the marvellous… . Its eight arms, or rather feet, fixed to its head … were twice as long as its body, and were twisted like the furies’ hair.

This passage is a famous quotation from Twenty Thousand Leagues under the Sea, the 1870 masterpiece from French novelist Jules Verne. It is also one of the most renowned descriptions of a fantastic creature in modern literature. In this case, it was used as the flavor text on Giant Octopus, at least when it comes to its Eighth Edition and Ninth Edition reprints.

Obviously, the game of Magic is heavily fantasy-based. As such, it owes much to the classics of literature and cinema. This is true in the flavor of a vast majority of the cards in the game, but it is especially noticeable when the flavor text consists of direct quotations. In this new installment, we are going to analyze a few creature cards where this is true.

Pearled Unicorn (Limited Edition Alpha, 1993)

‘Do you know, I always thought Unicorns were fabulous monsters, too? I never saw one alive before!’

‘Well, now that we have seen each other,’ said the Unicorn, ‘if you’ll believe in me, I’ll believe in you.’

(Lewis Carrol, Through the Looking-Glass, 1871)

Let's proceed in chronological order. The chronological order of Magic that is, and begin with Limited Edition Alpha, the first set of Magic (1993). Alpha Pearled Unicorn is the first card fitting our description. It represents a famous creature from the fantasy world, and it also makes use of a real-world quotation. Its flavor text is an excerpt from Through the Looking-Glass, the celebrated sequel to Alice's Adventures in Wonderland, from 1871.

It's a fragment of dialogue between Alice and a unicorn, where the two characters confess their ignorance of each other. Neither believed that the other really existed prior to their meeting, and they both used to think of the other as a "fabulous monster". The March Hare, another famous character from Lewis Carrol's work, intercedes between the two and introduces them to each other. The dialogue is a moving and philosophical scene, making the reader reflect on identity and perspective.

As for the card itself, It's quite similar to Scathe Zombies, also from Alpha, which we analyzed in the first installment of this series. They are both vanilla 2/2 creatures for three mana. Another thing they have in common is they are both representative versions of common fantasy creatures, with a Magic spin on them.

That was an important characteristic of Alpha, establishing resonant representations of common fantasy creatures and tropes, but with a bit of flair making them unique to the world of Magic. Tapping into these resonant fantasy archetypes, and adding their own twists was important for two reasons: it established a connection with fans by being new but familiar and also established an Intellectual Property that could later be expanded upon. After all, the game had just started. No one was sure how long it would last, or how successful it would ultimately prove to be.

Thunder Spirit (Legends, 1994)

It was full of fire and smoke and light and … it drove between us and the Efrafans like a thousand thunderstorms with lightning.

(Richard Adams, Watership Down, 1972)

Nearly a year later, the massive expansion set Legends (1994), debuted. Legends was another set full of real-world quotations. I personally like the one appearing here on Thunder Spirit. It makes for another great example of how crucial perspective is. Thunder Spirit is another 2/2 white creature for three mana like Pearled Unicorn. It's miles apart in quality from the Unicorn though. The Spirit has the abilities first strike and flying, two abilities that are great on their own, but together on a card from that era meant that it was strong enough to earn printing as a rare.

While not as strong as cards printed today, when you add that Thunder Spirit is on the Reserved List, you have the formula for a unique card that holds special value to collectors.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunder Spirit

Let's get back to the flavor though. The quotation on Thunder Spirit comes from Richard Adam's novel Watership Down (1972). It's a famous tale following the adventures of a group of rabbits. That's the reason I spoke of perspective earlier. The monster described as "full of fire and smoke and light" is really just a train. From the point of view of rabbits though, it becomes a frightening and deadly fiend. In the story, it ends up saving the protagonists from another group of rabbits, but it scares them quite a lot just the same.

Moon Sprite (Portal, 1997)

I am that merry wanderer of the night.

(William Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's Dream, 1600)

A couple of years after Legends came the starter-level set Portal (1997). The set contained a faerie creature named Moon Sprite. While obviously a faerie, it lacked the creature type on this first printing. The card is a 1/1 green creature with flying for two mana. It features a great illustration by beloved Magic artist Terese Nielsen.

What is most memorable, though, is the flavor text, taken from Shakespeare's comedy A Midsummer Night's Dream. The short quotation is spoken by the mischievous and prank-loving fairy Puck. Puck is ultimately the most recognizable character of the play. Here, he is conversing with another spirit, who recognizes him and calls him by his alternative name of "Robin Goodfellow".

At this point, Puck introduces himself with his famous monologue, the first line of which is the one quoted on Moon Sprite. Unlike the quotes we've looked at so far, this one is from the text of a play written in verse. This particular passage is a hendecasyllable, a line with eleven syllables. Such a choice, together with the briefness of the quotation, adds a lot to the final effect, making it harmonious and pleasantly light.

Wind Drake (Seventh Edition, 2001)

But high she shoots through air and light,

Above all low delay,

Where nothing earthly bounds her flight,

Nor shadow dims her way.

(Thomas Moore, Oh that I had Wings, 1855)

Here we have Wind Drake, from Seventh Edition (2001). Wind Drake was first printed in Portal. Reprinted a few times over the years, with a variety of names and flavors, it, and cards like it, are frequent Limited staples. A 2/2 with flying for the cost of three mana makes for a great evasive threat. If you have it in your pool, chances are good it will make it in your deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wind Drake

The flavor text quoted on the Seventh Edition version is from Thomas Moore's 16-line poem often known as "The Bird Let Loose." Moore was an Irish poet who lived between the 18th and 19th centuries. His poem does in fact describe a bird. It works just as well here describing a drake though. The poem describes a winged creature flying without ever touching the ground. It's a good fit for the card, especially when we see a drake defined as "smaller cousin to the dragon" in the Magic 2013 version of the card. I guess there's not much difference between a huge bird and a small dragon?

Giant Octopus (Eighth Edition, 2003)

Before my eyes was a horrible monster, worthy to figure in the legends of the marvellous… . Its eight arms, or rather feet, fixed to its head … were twice as long as its body, and were twisted like the furies’ hair.

(Jules Verne, Twenty Thousand Leagues under the Sea, 1870)

We mentioned Giant Octopus at the start of the piece, and we'll end our tour with it. Just like Pearled Unicorn, the Octopus is another typical vanilla creature. The blue cousin of Hill Giant, it was again first printed in Portal and received this flavor text in Eighth Edition. Its flavor text quotes no less than Jules Verne.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giant Octopus

The octopus is one of my all-time favorites, partly for its evocative art and partly for the detailed account given through first-person speech. I think it really makes you feel there with the narrator, thanks to its colloquial and yet solemn style. He merges together corrections such as "or rather feet" and references such as "like the furies' hair," making the description extra vivid.

Fantastic Beasts or Fantasy as a State of Mind?

As we have seen, especially in the first editions of Magic, it was common to create creatures with broadly resonant traits. As the game flourished, and new cards were printed by the thousands, more specific names became necessary both for world-building, and to keep from running out of potential card names. That process accelerated over time until real-world-based flavor was limited to core sets or left off altogether.

In this installment, we looked at fantastic creatures from the Magic: The Gathering world whose descriptions in flavor text all came from quotations from real-world literature. In the next installment, we'll move to another kind of fantasy: that of pure imagination not limited to physical form or appearance. Stay tuned!

Making the Most of your Counterspells

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

"No." is a Complete Sentence.

Counterspells are perhaps the most self-explanatory part of Magic and certainly one of the game's most integral components. Simple. Clean. Effective. Whether you love them or hate them, the words, "counter target spell" have been a part of Magic since Alpha and you shouldn't plan on them going anywhere. However, the time, place, and context for a given counter is a matter of debate.

So, You Want to Counter That Spell?

Congratulations! Your opponent has foolishly placed a spell on the stack and you have a castable counterspell. What should you do? Counter it? Well, maybe. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you necessarily should. Before you do anything, ask yourself the following:

Is That Going to Kill Me?

This question is both the most straightforward and the hardest to answer. Much to our shared disappointment, some of our opponent's plays are probably going to have to resolve. We don't have infinite answers at our disposal to deal with everything, so it's best to go after the most threatening targets. Typically, cards you want to avoid countering are low mana value with minimal impact. Your counterspells are at their best when trading up for mana.

As such, you'll often want to ignore cantrips like Consider or cheap creatures like Luminarch Aspirant, especially when they can take a while to build up their threat level or if your deck has access to other forms of removal. Saving your counterspells and cleaning up your opponent's turn two Aspirant with a turn four-five board wipe like Doomskar opens up the possibility of a two-for-one or better by destroying multiple creatures.

Spot removal supplements your counterspells as well. A well-timed Spikefield Hazard or Portable Hole also answers an Aspirant for less mana than your opponent spent and saves your flexible answers for something else. For control and tempo-based blue decks, these margins of card and mana advantage are what can win or lose you the game.

Instead, prioritize countering threats that are difficult to answer cleanly. One such example is Esika's Chariot which puts three permanents on the board. Using your board wipe may deal with the tokens, but it will leave the Chariot behind for future value. Typically, planeswalkers like Wrenn and Seven fall into this category as well by entering the battlefield and immediately drawing a card, creating a token, or some other value piece.

Also, keep in mind what your opponent's outs are based on the current board state. Let's say you have a Goldspan Dragon in play with your opponent at four life and no flying blockers. They have two cards in their hand, then cast an Esika's Chariot. You have a single Negate. The Chariot is immaterial to the outcome of the game on the current board, but you know your opponent has Fateful Absence in their deck. In this situation, Chariot is not a game-winning threat, so you should allow it to resolve. The only card your opponent could have to change the tide of the battle is a removal spell for your dragon. Don't open yourself up to that potential outcome unnecessarily.

Is This the Best It's Going to Get?

Another question to ask yourself is whether there even is another reasonable target in your opponent's deck. Not every counter you'll have is going to be unconditional, especially in smaller formats. Sometimes, your opponent may only have a few cards in their deck that fit the parameters of your Disdainful Stroke, Essence Scatter, or Spell Snare. You may just need to fire it off at the first potential target and move on with your life. Otherwise, you'll be stuck with a dead card in your hand collecting dust. If you plan to run conditional counters, it's important to know the metagame and what your opponent could have in their deck. This will help you prepare accordingly.

Another consideration is how to best utilize protective counters in a combo-based deck. Unfortunately, your opponent can also have access to counterspells, so you'll need to be able to play around that eventuality.

Cards like Force of Will and Pact of Negation (and occasionally Force of Negation) fit into this protective counterspell category. They help force through a powerful (sometimes winning) spell through opposing countermagic. Resolving your Show and Tell, Ad Nauseam, Violent Outburst/Crashing Footfalls, etc. typically results in you winning the game.

You want to protect your combo, but also stop your opponent from advancing their game plan if possible. Understanding when to curtail your opponent's advance versus protecting yours is a critical lesson for combo decks. Considering these examples come with fairly steep downsides, it goes without saying to use them only if you absolutely have to.

What Time is It?

Soft counters like Spell Pierce, Flusterstorm, and Mystical Dispute are excellent as they typically only cost a single mana and allow for interaction in the early stages of the game. However, their taxing effects get worse as the game progresses and your opponent is able to pay the additional costs. This incentivizes you to use them early.

Try to use these spells as early de-stabilizers for your opponent's setup turns to push back their clock. Alternatively, they shine as supplemental counters in a counter war. Your opponent will invest mana into their action spell, then respond to your counter with one of their own, typically limiting the amount of remaining mana they have in the exchange. This opens up the perfect opportunity to snipe their spell with your conditional follow-up counter.

The Cost of Doing Business

Holding up a counterspell lets you keep your shields up, but if your opponent doesn't cast a spell (or a spell that matters), you end up wasting your mana for the turn. These days, there are plenty of ways for your opponent to use their mana without putting a spell on the stack too. Creature lands like Den of the Bugbear can activate and kill you in short order. The same is true for a cycled Shark Typhoon. Supplement your counterspells with other instant-speed effects where possible. Instant speed card draw or flash creatures like Ice-Fang Coatl are good ways to use leftover mana. Alternatively, aim to include modal counters like Archmage's Charm and Drown in the Loch. These cards can be of use even if your opponent doesn't cast a spell, allowing you to maximize your mana efficiency.

End Step

There is certainly more to this topic that I haven't covered. Perhaps I'll revisit and elaborate at a future date. In the meantime, if you have any questions on how to get the most out of your counterspells, or have another area you'd like me to discuss, leave a comment or tweet me at @AdamECohen. I'll catch you all next week!

Because it Doesn’t Win: A Response to Ross Meriam

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

There are many frustrating things in Magic: the Gathering. The game is built around managing the scarce resources of mana and cards to produce wins, and that's very hard. Which is frankly part of the appeal. The thousands of choices and permutations of those choices from deck construction to individual game play keeps Magic fresh and alive.

That said, some challenges are more vexing than others. Especially when that challenge is limited to you and something (or some deck) that you particularly care about. Specifically, it can prove beyond frustrating to have success with a deck while everyone else thinks it's trash. I've been there, and therefore understand where the subject of today's article is coming from.

Last week, Ross Meriam asked why his current Modern deck (4-Color Indomitable Creativity) doesn't see more play in Modern. I realize that the question was mostly rhetorical, and a writer's contrivance introduction to his own article on the deck, but we'll treat it like a serious question. Because it is a good question with a surprising answer.

The Deck's Reality

Ross makes a strong argument for his deck in the article, which I can summarize as "4-Color Creativity is as close to Splinter Twin as it gets in Modern" and is therefore underplayed compared to 4-Color Omnath. As the decks share the same core, Ross believes it would be better to play the combo version. And yet, despite Ross's success, the deck is not only underplayed relative to Omnath versions but barely a player in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

The evidence is unequivocal: 4-Color Creativity is not a good deck in Modern. It hasn't made Tier 3 in my metagame updates since November, and it just squeaked in then. Creativity was mid-Tier 3 overall in 2021. And spoiler alert, nothing will change for the next update. This could be excused if Creativity did well on average power, but it doesn't, typically being at or slightly below baseline. These are not characteristics of an underrated deck.

It would therefore be simple to simply dismiss Ross's assertion as hopeful enthusiasm. He's having success, but since nobody else is, he's clearly an outlier. Follow the wisdom of the crowd: the deck is bad.

Not So Fast

Anyone who knows anything about crowds knows that they're as likely to be wrong as they are right, particularly as the crowd size increases. Humans are prone to groupthink and can be led astray by loud but wrong opinions. Cognitive biases and ignorance also play a factor.

We've seen this repeatedly in Magic before. Why else are there so many articles out there about underrated cards and even decks? For all formats? Famously, a lot of teams looked at Colorless Eldrazi prior to PT Oath of the Gatewatch but didn't run the deck either because they built it wrong or didn't understand it. Those that did prospered mightily. Therefore, a claim that contradicts the data and collective wisdom, such as Ross's, should be fairly evaluated. The collective wisdom can be wrong and an individual right, after all.

A Common Refrain

Which hasn't really happened here. Ross Meriam isn't wrong: 4-Color Creativity is a powerful deck. However, it has a hard time translating that power into actual wins. From my own experience, the deck is putting up numbers consistent with its actual place in Modern. This is a case where the enthusiast is doing better than the typical player. However, that's not what drew me to this topic nor why I'm writing this article. I have heard the exact same claim made about both Legacy Sneak and Show and Vintage Oath of Druids many times before.

Uncannily, the players arguing this point to me have defended and justified their opinions the exact same way that Ross defended and justified Creativity: you do a thing, get a superpowered monster, and win the game. Until that point, just play the control deck and wait for the right window to strike. It's the most powerful combo-control thing to do; why won't anyone else play the deck?!

The Combo That Isn't

Short answer: It's the wrong sales pitch. The problem for all these decks and their proponents is that none of them are actually combo-control decks because none of them are combo decks. They superficially resemble combo decks in that they win by combining a few cards together to produce their win condition. However, said win condition isn't actually lights out! Which is why players end up shying away from these decks.

I'm going to quote Ross directly on this:

I’d rather stall the game out until Indomitable Creativity ends the game on the spot.

Why Aren’t You Playing Four-Color Indomitable Creativity In Modern? Ross Meriam, Starcitygames.com

Every. Time. Someone has tried to sell me (or in Oath's case, someone near me) on these decks, that line has been used. And it isn't true. Yes, there's a high likelihood that the Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Griselbrand will win the game in short order. Assuming they attack successfully and/or the opponent concedes in the face of the monstrous threat. But the fact remains that the opponent has at least one draw step to find an answer after you "successfully combo off" to get back in the game. The threats don't have haste (except via Sneak Attack). That's not ending the game on the spot, that's setting up for a win next turn.

Forgotten Lineage

Compare this to a successful combo from Twin: Here are infinite Deceiver Exarchs. If you don't have the right answer right now, you're dead. No more draw steps, no extra untap step, no further questions. Just dead. The shell of Creativity may resemble Twin in some ways with the interaction and planeswalkers, but it doesn't compare to Twin's game-ending potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splinter Twin

Which is the biggest misconception about Creativity, Oath, and Sneak. They're not actually combo decks. They're Tinker decks in the old-school sense. While mostly replaced by ramp strategies today, Tinker was all about cheating out a big threat and winning before it was possible to answer it. Which is very effective, as evidenced by Tinker's shining moment at the 2000 World Championship.

However, as Mike Flores once noted in a now lost article "Finding the Tinker Deck" (seemingly remembered only by me, citations, and other references to it), Tinker itself is utterly busted, and consequently Wizards has really toned down the power level of Tinker-like spells. That was early 2000's powering down. And when Tinker isn't utterly busted, it's pretty underwhelming. The support spells do nothing on their own, and if the gameplan doesn't develop exactly as written, the deck does nothing. Players hate decks that do nothing.

The Big Flaw

Which is the reason that all three decks are less popular than their proponents would like. When things come together, there's a high likelihood of victory, but only if the opponent can't answer the threat in the (admittedly short) window they're provided. When things don't come together, all these decks can stall heroically, but they can't actually halt the backwards slide. At which point they have to hope that their big threat is still good when they finally cheat it out. Emrakul cheated in on turn 3 is probably good enough. Emrakul cheated in on turn 10 at 4 life? Probably not.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tinker

To make matters worse, answers have gotten better and more diverse over the years. Wizards didn't print removal spells capable of removing big creatures efficiently after Terror and Swords to Plowshares were deemed too good. Therefore, decks from that era rarely played spot removal, focusing on counters or mass removal.

It wasn't until very recently that Wizards changed its mind. Standard suffered for years thanks to poor removal and exception threats, and Wizards has been forced to print better answers. Modern has Path to Exile, Solitude, Drown in the Loch (conditionally), and planeswalkers to remove big creatures cheaply. Tossing out an enormous threat and hoping for the best isn't as safe as it used to be.

And the Answer to the Question...

The Tinker family of strategies is not bad. If it was, Tron and Amulet Titan would have fallen by the wayside years ago. Cheating out big threats is an ageless and solid strategy. However, both the mentioned decks are ramp, cousins of Tinker's but not true derivatives. Each packs a lot of different payoffs which can be cast at various points on the mana curve around its support spells to ensure that the fail state isn't too much of a fail state.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, the Great Creator

Creativity, like Oath and Sneak before it, is a direct descendent of the original Tinker decks. They want to use a spell to cheat in a big threat without casting it at all. Their only option is to cheat in said threat; it can't be cast in a normal game. If they fail to cheat out their threat, they don't have many options left to actually win the game. The fallback plan is to be a control deck without the density of answers that makes a control deck good. They're decks of compromises.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Which is why true Tinker decks are far less popular and generally perform worse than their ramp cousins. Their harder fail state turns players off and generates a lot of feel-bad moments. Magic players don't like to lose (competitive games attract competitive people), and particularly hate losing to their own deck's failings. Having a less-than-optimal game is one thing; when a deck does a whole lot of things but not the thing that wins the game, it feels much worse. Such is the reality of Creativity, which will just lose if it doesn't draw its namesake card before it runs out of answers. And it doesn't run that many answers.

Truthful Advertising

The moral of this story is that if you're going to bill a deck as a combo that Wins the Game Now, make sure it actually wins the game outright. As all the Sneak players I've beaten with Karakas over the years will attest, leaving the possibility open for the opponent to answer the Tinkered threat is a fatal mistake. It's why Sneak players have adopted Omniscience. Not only does it dodge common Show and Tell hate, it also allows for actual combo kills via chaining instants and tutors. Like an actual combo deck, and not like a ramp deck.

Specific Critiques

I also have few specific problems with Creativity beside the general flaw with the strategy. Hard Evidence is the best anti-aggro card in the deck, as Ross notes. I'd argue that it's also the best token maker because it provides two tokens, one of which isn't a creature and is therefore resilient to common removal fizzling Creativity. Why don't Creativity players play a full set? I've beaten Creativity plenty of times by just answering the tokens. (Engineered Explosives on zero is quite a thing.) And sometimes because Archon of Emeria nerfs Dwarven Mine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dwarven Mine

Another is that Serra's Emissary is great against linear decks and terrible against anything fair. The former is to be expected and Ross acknowledges that reality. The problem is that Modern is primarily fair now and the fair decks have multiple card types capable of answering Emissary. Being locked out of one type was frustrating at times, but I've never actually been hard locked or lost to Emissary. My experience paints it as very underwhelming.

And finally, drawing the Creativity payoffs is terrible. There's no way to prevent that, and precious few ways to correct it. If Creativity can stick Emrakul or Emissary, they're probably not losing that game. However, once drawn, there are four total ways to get Emrakul back into the deck, and only two for Emissary. That's disastrous. Worse, there's no cantrips to help find Creativity or to avoid drawing payoffs. Remember what I said about compromises? There isn't room for everything in the deck as it stands, so they've made do by hoping to run well. And it doesn't enough to keep players playing and winning with the deck.

Reasonable Expectations

To be perfectly clear, I think that Creativity is a fine deck. However, it has flaws both intrinsic to its design and the strategy it derives from. This is not the right Modern for Creativity to shine and I don't think the deck is all the way there yet. I think that Creativity needs more time in the tank before it can credibly be called underrated.

Modern Top 5: Bullets

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back to Modern Top 5! In this series, we cut to the meat of contemporary format trends by viewing things through a certain lens. Previously, Modern Top 5 has covered the likes of Hosers, Enablers, and Utility Cards. Today, we'll discuss bullets.

Number One, With a Bullet

What exactly is the difference between a bullet and a hoser, or a piece of utility, or a straight-up staple? As we'll define them today, bullets are flexible interactive cards that are run in small quantities as part of a sideboard plan or mainboard tutoring package.

Today's article owes its existence to the fact that, for the second-ever time I can remember outside of a Tier 0 Modern, MTGGoldfish lists Lightning Bolt as displaced from the number one spot for most-played card in the format... and by a bullet card, no less! This development illustrates just how inextricable bullets have become from our contemporary Modern landscape.

Taking Aim

Allow me a bit of self-plagiarism as I lay out the foundations of the method used herein.

Unlike many best-of lists, Modern Top 5 seeks to establish parameters that explain its ranking. Grades are given out of 15, with three different metrics being counted out of 5; cards with more points are ranked higher. This system is not without its faults: some metrics are perhaps more important than others when it comes to a card's playability, but the metrics are not weighted; similarly, while doling out numbers removes a degree of subjectivity from the process, the numbers assigned and metrics chosen remain eminently debatable. The system's purpose, then, is less to create a definitive list than to pave the road for a structured debate surrounding the cards' playability in relation to one another.

Modern Top 5: Enablers

Some of the metrics employed across the series have included stickiness, bulk, and resilience. For today's entry, we'll fall back on the same three metrics as the first-ever Modern Top 5.

  • Power: The degree of impact the card tends to have for its cost.
  • Flexibility: The card's usefulness across diverse situations and game states.
  • Splashability: The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibility will be rated by considering both a card's floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example, Lightning Bolt's power floor is higher than Fatal Push's, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.

Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they'll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity, Ghost Quarter doesn't fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily run Fulminator Mage as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don't have to.

Modern Top 5: Utility Cards

Now that the method's been established, it's time to lock 'n load!

#5: Sanctifier en-Vec

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sanctifier en-Vec

Power: 4

Here's what I had to say about Rest in Peace three years ago:

The only card here to earn a 5 in this category, Rest in Peace is great at virtually all stages of the game. Speed bump effects like Nihil Spellbomb and Relic of Progenitus let opponents rebuild after nuking the graveyard; similar hosers like Leyline of the Void are often too slow to have any real impact if cast later. Rest in Peace is really two cards in one, nuking the graveyard when it resolves and then preventing further abuse until dealt with. For its two-mana cost, this double-spell effect is a steal.

Modern Top 5: Hosers

Sanctifier en-Vec is quite similar, but boasts a 2/2 body to boot. That means it can apply pressure, and without even dying to Lightning Bolt thanks to protection from red! Since we're not rating on stickiness this time around, we'll ignore the pros and cons of being a creature in favor of the actual impact of its effect. While Sanctifier often does a great Rest in Peace impression, it's not quite as unequivocal, as it only affects red and black cards. This power nerf could prove beneficial in the right deck (say, one that's looking to continue looping lands with Wrenn and Six while not outright losing to Dredge).

Flexibility: 3

Here's where being a creature really plays to Sanctifier's points count. Rest in Peace is dead in multiples barring opponents having an answer, and even then, the second copy is often less impactful than the first (which had a gang of graveyard cards to exile). But another 2/2 to smack opponents around with while they scramble to get their disrupted gameplan in order? Can't complain.

Splashability: 1

Natch, Sanctifier can't be played in shells that want to abuse black and red graveyard effects. Its most damning trait, though, is the double-white cost. Very few Modern decks can swing that, and the ones that can may prefer something stickier to deal with graveyards (such as Rest in Peace in UW Control). All that boils down to an excellent role-player for a small subset of decks, most notable among them 2021 metagame champion Hammer Time, which packs the full four copies.

Overall: 8/15

#4: Endurance

There was an error retrieving a chart for Endurance

Power: 4

In "MH2 Overview, Pt. 2: Playing the Part," I wrote of Endurance that "its effect is the narrowest of the [pitch cycle], but still quite impactful when it matters: putting the graveyard on the bottom of the library is somewhat better than exiling it, where players still retain some degree of access to the cards. And doing so for free at instant speed will blow out a bevy of Modern combos so long as players draw into Endurance before that critical turn." By now, the Elemental has made a name for itself in Modern doing just that.

Flexibility: 3

Offering a Ravenous Trap-type effect for 1GG or two cards in hand would never be worth a precious sideboard slot. After all, we have Ravenous Trap. But Endurance shares with its Elemental cohorts the "mode" of coming down as a creature, and a bulky 3/4 at that. Best of all, it has reach and flash, letting [card]Endurance[/card[ come down for the full 1GG cost to take out pesky fliers like Channeler.

Splashability: 2

1GG isn't the easiest to splash, and the condition of having a spare green card is also tough for most decks to meet. Since Endurance can be cast for either cost and is already in the color best suited to splashing, it gains a point over Sanctifier, but still leaves much to be desired on this front. Modern's better for it—imagine every deck packing 4 of these!

Overall: 9/15

#3: Alpine Moon

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alpine Moon

Power: 2

Okay, so Alpine Moon has a pretty high ceiling: opponent plays Urza's Saga on turn two; cast Alpine as a one-mana Stone Rain that invalidates future copies of the enchantment land. But that ceiling is almost never reached. Players often wait to throw out their Sagas until they can pay to generate Construct tokens, whereas destroying a land is best in the early game, and that's only when the exact cards line up perfectly.

Most of the time, Alpine plays out like a Pithing Needle for lands with some extra upside. Which isn't much to write home about, but absolutely can turn the tide of a game.

Flexibility: 3

The opportunity cost of running one Alpine Moon in the sideboard is outrageously low. That's because in addition to being insane against one of Modern's pillars, Alpine has a purpose in so many matchups. It can shut down critical manlands like Celestial Colonnade, take apart the mana engines of Tron and Eldrazi decks, or brutalize opponents depending on Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle.

Splashability: 5

Red is the most popular color in the format. It's got the hot new removal spell in Unholy Heat and the hot new creature in Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. And best of all, even the menace of Blood Moon does nothing to stop one from casting Alpine Moon, something that gives red cards the edge in discussions surrounding splashability. At a single mana, Alpine couldn't offer much more.

Overall: 10/15

#2: Dress Down

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dress Down

Power: 4

Dress Down has some very obvious applications in trading for "half a card," in the same way that Surgical Extraction often catches a bad rap for: Extract the Snapcaster Mage target and you're left to face the 2/1 body. Alternately, casting Dress also stops Snap's ETB, but for two mana instead of zero. Pilots get to draw a card, though, which puts them up by... well, half a card. Math! And Down can stop all sorts of ETBs, not just graveyard-reliant ones. Against something like Omnath, Locus of Creation, it turns off the 4/4 for the entire turn, negating not just the cantrip but any value to be gained from making land drops that turn.

Two mana for half a card of advantage? On that front, I'd call Dress vs. Surgical something of a wash. But Dress starts reeling in the power points when it comes to the incredible value it nets against many of Modern's most popular cards. You could plop this down in combat and kill a swinging Goyf with your blocking 1/1. Or at any time to kill an existing Territorial Kavu. Or a board of four existing Urza's Saga Construct tokens. For existing! Talk about extreme prejudice.

Flexibility: 4

Stopping combo turns; sapping value; killing Constructs. Dress does a lot. And in some decks, it does even more. Grixis Shadow has taken to running a pair not just because of its defensive applications, but because making your Death's Shadow lose all abilities just turns it into a 13/13 for the turn. Roll over, Temur Battle Rage!

What if opponents have no creatures? In that case, Dress simply cycles for 1U. Granted, that's far from a competitive rate, but it ensures the card is never truly dead. At its very worst, Dress is the next card in your deck for two mana.

Splashability: 4

1U is as close to splashable as any non-red-colored card can be. Just ask Goyf. Any blue deck can and will run Dress Down.

Overall: 12/15

#1: Engineered Explosives

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

Power: 3

At last, we've made it to Modern's current most-played card and latest in a modest lineage of Bolt usurpers. Engineered Explosives is no stranger to this column, either, having clocked in at #4 in "Modern Top 5: Utility Cards." Let's take a look at what was written there to see what's changed, and why Explosives performs better in this nearly unrecognizable iteration of Modern.

Casting and cracking Engineered Explosives is almost always a tempo-negative play—when it can't remove a swarm of tokens, or multiple cards with the same converted mana cost, pilots are all but guaranteed to lose some mana on the exchange. It's also quite rare to encounter Modern decks that reliably produce four distinct colors of mana and play Engineered Explosives.

With all that being said, Explosives is one of the format's few true catch-alls, and it occasionally enables blowouts. Pulse might kill two Goyfs, but it won't kill a Goyf and a Scavenging Ooze. And EE's effect doesn't target, which lets it handle boards full of beefy Bogles.

Modern Top 5: Hosers

"Occasionally enables blowouts," huh? Today, EE does all it used to and much more: a big draw to the card are the frequent blowouts it engineers. Specifically, Explosives is great against gameplans decks base their entire identity around.

Take Urza's Saga, by no coincidence a recurring motif in this article. Saga is so good because it offers a ton of value in one card: two big-to-huge constructs and an artifact from the deck. Maximizing all that value costs pilots a functional six mana as they pay 2 and tap the Saga twice over a couple turns.

Then there's Explosives, which comes down for zero mana and pops for two to kill both Constructs in one fell swoop. If players found themselves pressuring the Saga player beforehand, cleaning up the artifacts in this manner basically puts away the game, as the tempo loss of activating Saga twice for no gain is too great to deny.

Another of Modern's heavy hitters is Cascade, a deck full of three-mana cascade spells that turn into two 4/4s thanks to Crashing Footfalls. Again, EE deals with both Rhinos for just the price of popping itself.

It's fair to say that Explosives tends to be underwhelming on rate against nontoken permanents, where it charges two mana more than whatever the target cost. But there are still instances where it can take out two or three permanents that skew the math.

Flexibility: 5

Explosives isn't only great against decks pumping out huge tokens. Look at UR Murktide, whose early leads from Ragavans and Channelers put away plenty of games. Explosives is just good ol' Explosives in that matchup: a card that doesn't necessarily perform much better than it did in 2017, but that most players will be happy to have at the party regardless.

Speaking of Ragavan, EE on zero wipes out every Treasure token on the battlefield, giving EE additional stock against decks that run both the Monkey and the colorless land, like Jund or Temur Saga. On that note, very few cheap removal spells also boast the ability to take out huge boards of threats. And has anyone else noticed the rise of Chalice of the Void to combat Cascade and Murktide? EE handily dispatches of any Chalices on one.

To wit, the card was already quite flexible, and that dimension only improves with the increased blowout potential of today's Modern.

Splashability: 5

Once upon a time, Explosives got only 3 points on this metric:

Color-light decks like Tron and Skred, as well as mana-light decks like Burn and Death's Shadow, can't splash Engineered Explosives. The artifact limits itself mostly to three-color midrange decks (although some two-color decks can also play it profitably). In those, it's a staple. It even gives certain wedges and shards the ability to destroy permanents they would normally squirm against, like Tarmogoyf against Temur or Rest in Peace against Grixis. Thanks to the card's high flexibility, even decks with in-color removal for everything, like Abzan, are liable to run a copy or two.

Modern Top 5: Utility Cards

How things have changed! "Color-light decks like Tron and Skred" find themselves in short supply these days, and the upside of hitting Saga tokens and the like make Explosives an attractive option even for those that do exist. Everybody and their mama sleeves up EE these days—by which I mean a cool 40% of the format.

Overall: 13/15

Bullet for My (Belated) Valentine

Bolt will bounce back, and soon. But EE's little upset nonetheless tells us a lot about how favored it is to interact using bullets in Modern. Thus concludes our deep dive on Modern bullets. Have some favorites I've missed? Hit me up in the comments. Until then, may you leave your opponent's strategy full of smoking holes!

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation