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Insider: More Collection Tips

Posted on January 23, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Writing last week’s article made me realize how long it’s been since I’ve really written about selling collections. This week I’m going to go back and touch on the some of the stuff I passed over last week.

Last time we talked a lot about how to actually buylist the collection you’ve picked over and received. What we didn’t talk about was how to actually find these collections in the first place.

Finding good collections and paying the right amount on them is the most important thing there is. I know the term “MTGFinance” gets thrown around a lot and people usually are referring to speculating when they do so. But speculation is just one part of the game. Buying and selling is arguably the more consistent way to make money with Magic, and getting into collection flipping isn’t as hard as you might think.

Finding the Collections

Honestly, this is probably the hardest part. It’s not often someone just contacts you out of the blue and asks you to buy their cards. Of course, if you own or work at a store it becomes much easier, but what if you don’t have that freebie?

I’m in a position now where I usually go through enough cards just from people coming in and out of the store, but I didn’t always have it that easy. I’ve done everything in the book to find collections, and found it’s actually the simplest methods that yield the best results.

First off, simply tell people you’re interested. It seems overly simple, but a lot of people will never even consider another player a resource for this unless you tell them. Let people know that if they ever want to sell one or more of their cards, you’d be interested in making an offer.

Most stores have a strict policy against buying and selling inside their store, and it’s extremely important you respect this. There’s no faster way to ruin your reputation than by getting banned from the card shop.

But sometimes people are wary of selling to their local shop, either because prices are low or because they just haven’t handled that type of interaction before. That’s where you come in. Players are sometimes more willing to sell to other players because they feel like the cards are going to “a better place” than the store display case.

Craigslist

Whether or not Craigslist is a good avenue for you depends a lot on where you live. Smaller areas may not have a bunch of people sharking Craigslist, but a lot of bigger areas will.

That said, you can score big on Craigslist. Traditionally it’s been very hit-or-miss for me. I’ve gotten excellent deals, but I’ve also driven 30 minutes to find 500 M13 commons. Is it worth your time to look into? Yes, absolutely. But should you expect to hit gold every time? No.

Word of Mouth

Remember how I said your reputation is the most important thing you have in this business? It especially matters here. Even once you’ve got somebody selling you cards, you have to make the transaction as painless as possible for them.

How do you do this? Well, for starters, don’t be that guy who looks at all their cards, calls them bulk, and offers a low price. Understandably, there’s only so much you can do with a random guy from Craigslist you meet in a Wal-Mart parking lot, but for those from your LGS who may be interested in selling to you, you need to be as transparent as possible.

That means telling them how much you’re paying for a certain card if they ask, and making sure they understand you’re offering them a deal comparable to what a store would. People can be upset if they’re not getting retail on their cards, but in a lot of situations they will eventually just opt for the cash in front of them, and that’s fine.

Someone came into my store last week with a binder full of cards he had priced out on TCGPlayer. He understood he wasn’t going to get that number from me, but I had to explain to him I couldn’t just lop a percentage off of that number, either.

The issue is that lots of cards that are 50-75 cents on TCGPlayer are still essentially bulk to the buyer. You’re not going to be able to get anything close to that for them, and neither would the collection's owner. That’s an important distinction to make, and one most people understand once you explain it to them.

When you’re done with the deal, shake their hand and thank them for their time. Let them know you’re always buying and if they know anyone else interested to send them your way. Give them your number (business cards are even better, but I understand if you don’t want to go this far), so they can reach you if it comes up again. You’d be surprised how many people will eventually come to you via some contact you made a year ago.

Pricing the Collection

This is definitely the trickiest part of the process, and one that depends on your personal situation. Are you going to be selling the cards you buy to a buylist, to TCGPlayer/eBay or do you have another way to sell the cards? The amount you pay depends entirely on what you expect to sell them for.

Personally, I sell cards either through my LGS or to buylist. When I price, I use MTG.GG to find the highest buy price and subtract from that so that I’m around the range of other buylists, preferably a little lower.

A lot of people may consider buying for lower than buylist “scummy” or “sharky,” but the truth is it’s just not. In order to get that number from that buylist, someone has to take the time to sort the cards, enter them onto the website and go through the whole process. If the person selling to you wanted to do that themselves, they would’ve already done it.

Instead, you’re going to be the one doing it, and you deserve to be compensated for your time. The seller, in exchange, gets cash in hand and saves a lot of time.

Don’t forget condition. Remember from last week that when you do sell, the condition of a card greatly affects what you’ll get for it, so it should greatly affect what you’re willing to pay.

If you think you can get a quarter or 50 cents for a card on a buylist, the general rule is it’s a bulk rare. I buy bulk rares at 10 cents apiece and can sell them for 20 cents or a quarter locally.

If you aren’t as fortunate and can only get 10 cents per bulk rare (the going rate), then you probably want to buy at seven or eight cents a rare. We expect to make some money on the back end because a lot of the “bulk” people sell you isn’t actually bulk. But you can’t exactly sort through thousands of cards in the parking lot to determine what is or isn’t bulk, so you have to take their word for it.

What about the bulk that isn’t rare? The five thousand cards they have in that box? I pay $5 per thousand, which is again only because I can get more locally. The “going rate” for this is anywhere from $3-5 per thousand, and that is when shipping is on you.

Again, you'll probably find stuff that isn’t bulk, but there’s no reason to be chancing things. After all, what’s the point of even engaging in collection buying if you’re going to lose money? Yes, you can reasonably count on finding “not-bulk” in the bulk, but that’s already priced into what the going rate on these cards is. Were I in a different situation I wouldn’t really want to pay more than $4 per thousand cards just to cover my bases.

A general rule of thumb is you'll never make as much as you think, and you need to be aware of that from the beginning. Whether it’s buylist prices dropping, cards in worse condition than you thought or shipping and insurance costs, there’s a lot of back-end risk you have to account for when buying.

And again, remember your time is worth money. It may not be worth driving an hour to buy a collection with 20 rares and a thousand bulk C/U. If you’re going to spend hours on sorting and selling the collection, make sure you’re able to compensate yourself at a good hourly rate.

Any other questions? I’ll try to address them in the comments this week and not revisit this topic again for a while unless there’s a particular reason to. Collection flipping isn’t easy, and even though you’re looking at Magic cards it’s actual work. But it does get easier as you go, and is well worth your time.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Eternal Cards in Born of the Gods

Posted on January 22, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back Speculators!

So great news...Cardmageddon (January 19th) has passed and our cards are still valuable. For those living under a rock, the Chinese supplier who was supposed to be sending 19,000 counterfeits to the MTG community claimed that they would be shipping all these cards by January 19th.

So far, so good. But now let's get back to what you're really here to read about. How will Born of the Gods (BNG) affect the eternal formats (Legacy, Modern, and EDH)? As it's my favorite format we'll review Legacy first.

Legacy

Spirit of the Labryinth -- White hasn't gotten a solid "hate bear" like this since Thalia came to us in Dark Ascension. For those who don't remember, Thalia made Maverick (G/W toolbox deck) a tier-one deck for quite a while as she allowed the "fairest" deck in Legacy to fight the unfair ones.

The trick to Maverick was that to beat combo decks you wanted to stick Thalia (and ideally protect her with a Mother of Runes) and then use Knight of the Reliquary to Wasteland them into oblivion.

Eventualy these decks started adopting unique hate cards that were really good against Thalia (mainly Massacre). Even then most of those decks (especially Storm) would only have 2-3 copies of Massacre in the sideboard and would have to use all their cantrips (that cost one colorless more thanks to Thalia) to dig for those Massacres in a timely manner.

Spirit of the Labyrinth gives hate bear decks a way to fight all the cantrip style decks. The fact that she is non-legendary--it really sucks to draw additional copies of Thalia--and has three power is huge. I think this card could be the push Maverick needed to get back into the game.

It will definitely find some room in Death and Taxes, though whether she'll be a maindeck or a solid three-of-plus sideboard card is up to the D&T players to decide. Reading the forums on The Source shows that most feel she'll be in the board.

Bile Blight -- This is almost a strict upgrade to Echoing Decay, though ED has in itself fallen out of favor as an answer to Belcher/Storm players who gunned for Empty the Warrens. Giving -3/-3 is huge though as it opens up a lot of potential against bigger creatures (I'm looking at you KoTR). Unfortunately, the biggest creature threat with three toughness is untargetable (Nimble Mongoose).

I don't know how much play this card will actually get, but if you can find foreign foils (as an uncommon there's not a ton of room for massive gain), I'd definitely pick them up as throw-ins.

Searing Blood -- This is a great addition for the Mono-Red/Burn players. Similar to Searing Blaze, however for one less damage to a creature you don't have to hit a land. There are a LOT of creatures in Legacy with two toughness or less, so it's still very relevant.

Kiora's Follower -- I only bring this one up to keep it on everyone's radar. The ability is quite powerful on a two-drop (especially one from a strong tribe). Again, foreign foils would be the play, though I wouldn't go deep on them as this one is still kind of a long shot.

Modern

Hero of Ioras -- This one might show up in some Boggle.dec deck as it does reduce the mana cost of some of the enchantments (Spirit Mantle and Journey to Nowhere), however, it's unlikely to make that much of a wave.

Thassa's Rebuff -- This one might find a home in Modern Merfolk. Usually Mana Leak would be preferred, but due to the limited number of two-mana counterspells available in the format, one that could potentially act as Mana Leak #5 is something to keep in mind.

Archetype of Courage & Brimaz, King of Oreskos -- I put these two together because I think White Weenie might have a shot in Modern. There are enough powerful white hate bears in the format that all the deck needs is an efficient threat. Both of these provide this threat.

While most will go with Brimaz, the ability to give your entire team first strike and take it away from your opponents' creatures could be huge. There aren't a lot of first strikers played in Modern (outside of Thalia herself), but it is nice that in a WW mirror your Thalias would beat there's.

Pain Seer -- I know a lot of people think this is just a slightly worse Bob...but it's a much worse Bob. The one toughness is nowhere near as important as having to wait a full extra turn for the first trigger. While Dark Confidant is often sent into battle, the fact that for Pain Seer to activate he pretty much has to battle means that if your opponent has a good blocker in play...you won't be drawing a card, unlike with Bob.

I do expect people to try him out, as in a deck like Jund with a lot of removal spells there's a decent chance he'd just be another card advantage machine.

EDH

This is the category that gains the most from BNG.

The Minor Gods (Ephara, God of the Polis, Karametra, God of the Harvests, Mogis, God of Slaughter, Phenax, God of Deception, Xenagos, God of Revels) -- Some of these gods are more powerful than others (looking at you Karametra and Xenagos) for EDH. However, I feel all will likely find homes in certain decks. Many casual players love the mill strategy and are salivating at Phenax.

Fated Retribution -- Another instant speed Wrath (of which there are few) that also kills planeswalkers. While the scry ability is cute, I imagine few games in which it will be cast on the caster's turn.

Silent Sentinel -- Sun Titan sees a lot of EDH play as it provides solid card advantage (though Sentinel doesn't give it when it hits the field, it doesn't have a mana requirement to it). I can't wait to recur Pernicious Deeds and Defense of the Hearts.

Champion of Stray Souls -- This has my pick for best card to get foil copies off within the first three months of the set's release. His ability is really powerful, especially with creatures that make tokens. The artwork is gorgeous to boot.

Felhide Spiritbinder -- Red is the color of attacking, so red "inspire" cards basically read "you'd better block this guy". The fact that he makes tokens of any creature with haste is a great ability for a format known for large/overcosted creatures.

Archetype of Endurance -- While most of the archetypes (especially the white one) have a decent chance of making it into some EDH decks, green is probably the most popular color and the one that can tutor easiest for creature cards. Hexproof is a ridiculous ability and permanently removing it from opponents' creatures is really useful.

Nessian Wilds Ravager -- I'm a huge fan of Gruul Ragebeast because in most games he's a two-for-one. While this creature isn't as powerful as Ragebeast it is also mono-green so it can go into more decks. I don't think tribute will be that good of a mechanic in EDH, but if people were going to be concerned about it...sticking the ability onto a 6/6 for six that either kills a guy or becomes a 12/12.

Chromanticore -- While it makes me really sad this guy isn't legendary (to use as a five-color general) his abilities are decently powerful and the artwork is gorgeous. He will find a home in some five-color decks with ease.

Hero's Podium -- Any artifact that provides card advantage is something to consider. Certain deck styles tend to play a lot of legendary creatures (Captain Sisay for example) and the fact that it gives you a way to dig for them with colorless mana at instant speed means it will find a home...though I doubt it in many decks.

Black Cards, Bulls and White Devotion in BOTG

Posted on January 22, 2014January 29, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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A cursory glance at the Born of the Gods spoiler shows black as the clear front-runner for most powerful color in the set. Obviously there's plenty to be revealed as of yet, but black players should be more than happy just having what has already been revealed.

Bile Blight, Drown in Sorrow and Torment's Herald will all see Standard play in some capacity. Blight and Sorrow both offer potential two for ones in Black Devotion, which is certainly a boon for the deck. These cards not only afford the deck more wiggle room against the very fast aggressive decks, but they also give the deck some game against Assemble the Legion. They might only offer the deck a one-turn window against Assemble, but that is often enough to win games with Desecration Demon-particularly one that has munched on a soldier token or two.

Torment's Herald is unlikely to end up in the Black Devotion deck, but I would wager than any black aggressive deck would want some number of these guys. My money is on that number being four. A quality evasive threat on its own in addition to being a very impactful card to Bestow, I don't foresee anybody calling this one a sleeper.

These cards definitely change the format- both in terms of what people play and how they play them- but there's not a ton to talk about in terms of their application. They're fairly straightforward.

Instead I'd like to take a closer look at a couple and their potential applications. I'll start with the one I'm less sure of:

Ragemonger

A 2/3 for three is basically piss-poor, but any ability that discounts mana costs is worth looking at. Rageblood Shaman and Kragma Warcaller give a good amount of incentive to jam a bunch of Minotaurs, which is only more tempting when their mana-cost is reduced.

I could see this card being constructed playable, but there are a few factors keeping it from looking like a good option in Standard. For starters, the Minotaur tribe could use some cards that cost less than three, but there's a bit more than that missing from this puzzle.

One problem that comes to mind is that redundant Ragemongers don't really do anything in terms of mana generation. If Kragma Warcaller had more colored mana symbols in its casting cost, then multiple Ragemongers could lead to extremely explosive turns. As is, each individual Warcaller is going to cost at least three mana. It's a good rate for a 4/3 haste lordly creature, but is it really the best that we can do?

Specifically, is the mana generated by Ragemonger going to be able to combat the mana that Burning-Tree Emissary and Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx generate?

Before I give Minotaurs any serious consideration for Standard I'd need to see at the very least another two-drop and ideally something in the 3-4 mana range that both stands alone well and makes for explosive turns when discounted by Ragemonger. I don't believe Felhide Spiritbinder to be this card. It's possible that there are already enough tools for a solid Block Constructed deck though.

Ephara, God of the Polis

I've seen a good amount of disappointment expressed at Ephara, but I'm a believer. My first thought when I saw Ephara was that she's "on" when you control her, a Detention Sphere and Nightveil Specter. The obvious direction to go with a card based on Devotion is to throw it in a Devotion deck, and the notion of shoehorning Ephara into Blue Devotion isn't without merit. Just add some Temple of Enlightenment, cut the Rapid Hybridizations for Detention Spheres and, most likely, trim some one-drops (not great with guildgates) for Ephara. Viola, you have a deck.

But do you have an upgraded deck, or a flashy and new bastardization of something that was better? I don't especially think so.

Gate/Temple go, Gate/Temple Cloudfin Raptor is not a spectacular opening. Having five or six gods also leaves you with more awkward draws more often. Then there's also the fact that playing Bident of Thassa will most often just be better than Ephara for Master of Waves decks.

Luckily, Ephara also happens to count Devotion to white. While there have been a few attempts at White Devotion, they haven't been terribly successful. There just doesn't seem to be much value to being devoted to white. Heliod is rather droll compared to other gods and using Nykthos mana just to activate Heliod just doesn't do enough. Splashing for Sphinx's Revelation is an option, but at that point you're the worst Revelation deck and you're playing from a weird angle for a creature deck.

I think that the best home for Ephara is likely a midrangey shell with Mutavaults over Nykthos. Somewhere between the aggressive white decks and the big Heliod piles.

Precinct Captain is an obvious shoe-in due to efficiency and synergy with Ephara. Brimaz, King of Oreskos, also from Born of the Gods, gets the nod for the same reason. Brimaz is getting plenty of buzz as a singular card, and playing it along with a card that nets you a card every time Brimaz enters combat couldn't possibly make things worse.

I'm imagining a deck that starts on turn one with Soldier of the Pantheon, follows up with Precinct Captain and Brimaz into Ephara and a stream of tokens and extra cards. Pepper with Detention Sphere and Spear of Heliod to taste.

I could easily see the following being the core of a tier one constructed deck:

All this in addition to Ephara and Brimaz, of course. This might just be new set delirium, but throwing proven cards in with obviously good cards and a one-sided howling mine attached to an indestructible 6/5 sounds kind of good to me.

There are absolutely powerful cards from Born of the Gods that I haven't highlighted here. In fact, the set looks to be very promising for both constructed and limited. Will Born of the Gods solidify Black Devotion's role of the boogeyman? Could Azorius Devotion prove a powerful contender in 2014? Either way, I'm excited to find out!

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf

Insider: Using MTGO to Predict Paper Price Corrections

Posted on January 22, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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It’s being widely discussed as I write this—the MTG finance scene is changing. Reddit has added 4,000 new speculators to the community, and now cards are spiking left and right. Sometimes the spikes make perfect sense (e.g. Birthing Pod) and sometimes they are based on very little information (e.g. Norin the Wary, Fist of Suns). But in all cases, it’s getting harder and harder to get in on a card being featured in coverage or in articles. Buyouts are happening much more quickly and thoroughly than they were only a few months ago.

We’ve got some options moving forward. We could try to be faster than the rest of the community, sitting at our computers day and night, refreshing Twitter and Reddit and the QS forums, just waiting for any sign that money is to be made on a card. This seems like a recipe for exhaustion to me, but it might work for some. Another option is to change nothing. We could just accept that we’re not going to get in on everything and be happy to get in on what we can. That’s fine and all, but in general, QS Insiders are not really content to sit and watch others make all the money.

The option I like best is to use common sense and analytical tools to know which cards are likely to spike. This way, when a card starts going on the rise, we’ll already have an established position. In a situation like this, no action is required on your part except to out the copies you’ve already been accumulating.

Using MTGO as a Reference

There are many ways to predict which cards are likely to spike, but I’m going to focus on just one today: using MTGO price disparities as a tool to predict paper spikes.

The MTGO and paper marketplaces are similar, but also vastly different. Because Limited events fire so frequently online, cards flood the market in far greater quantities than they do in paper. This is somewhat mitigated by redemption, but one need only look at the average price of an online rare to see that prices are much lower in the digital realm. Prices of mythics are more analogous across the two platforms, but occasionally there will be major inconsistencies one way or the other.

In general, though, if a card is worth significantly more online, we can expect the paper price to eventually follow suit. This isn’t always true—sometimes something like an additional paper printing explains the difference and makes it unlikely that tangible cards will catch up with their virtual counterparts.

Let’s get to the cards I’ve picked out for discussion today.

High-End Stuff

Liliana of the Veil

Paper price: $52.83

Online price: $79.95

Liliana of the Veil sees about as much Legacy play as Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It also sees play in Modern, where Jace is banned. Are we looking at our next $100 Planeswalker? It’s possible, but consider that Jace was in a small set that was only drafted for about two months, whereas Liliana was in a large set that was drafted for about six. Consider also the number of Innistrad packs opened in a draft versus the number of Worldwake packs opened in a draft. There are a lot more Liliana's out there. But the card also sees play in two different formats compared to Jace’s one, so perhaps things even out.

I’m not crazy about speculating on $50 cards. But seeing this disparity reminds me that if I want to play this card in the future, the time to pick up my set is now. Unless this sees a reprint at some point, this will hit $100. It might not ever climb as high as Jace, but it’s still going to be a premium planeswalker for years to come.

Mox Opal

Paper price: $40.04

Online price: $51.63

It’s hard for me to imagineMox Opal going higher than it is now, but consider that Affinity is one of the cheapest decks to build in Modern. It’s also regarded by many to be the best aggro deck in the format. If this deck takes off at any point during Modern season, cards in it will see a sharp increase. Budget decks that win don’t stay budget for long.

Mox Opal may not have room to go too much higher, but this is another disparity that reminds me that I should get my copies now if I want them. The MTGO prices don’t jive with the theme of this article, but it’s also worth keeping an eye on Arcbound Ravager (still a little low post-Modern Masters printing), Etched Champion, and Steel Overseer. Any of these could see a large spike if Affinity does work this summer.

Mid-Level Specs

Primeval Titan

Paper price: $12.56

Online price: $27.63

The true inspiration for this article, Primeval Titan already saw a modest gain of $2 or $3 over the weekend. I brought up the card on Twitter a few times last week as I was buying up cheap copies, so if you’re following me (@dbro37), I hope I helped you get in under $10.

Even after its small bump, the paper version of this card is still less than half that of its virtual complement. The card is in three distinct decks in Modern: Amulet of Vigor combo, Mono-Green Devotion, and some versions of Scapeshift. I believe it still has room to grow, so if you are interested in playing any of those decks, you’ll save yourself some money by picking up your playset sooner rather than later.

The downside for this pick is that there is a GP promo of the card, meaning an extra printing of copies has been added to the paper supply and not the digital. Does that explain a disparity this large, though? I don’t think so. Also keep in mind that Primeval Titan is banned in Commander, so its price is largely independent of casual demand. If that ever changes, however, look out. This card will blow up overnight.

Oblivion Stone

Paper price: $10.22

Online price: $13.98

This isn’t the largest price disparity, but with the recent spikes of Wurmcoil Engine and Karn Liberated, it can’t hurt to draw some attention here. This card spiked last year from $4 to $15, and has now settled down to $10. With no reprint in Modern Masters, don’t be surprised to see this increase even further this year. It’s also a very popular casual card, so even though not all Modern Tron decks play it, there will be demand from somewhere.

Geist of Saint Traft

Paper price: $15.60

Online price: $24.61

Geist has been a good pickup for a little while now, and seeing that its paper version is only worth about 60% of its digital equivalent only adds to my resolve on the matter. My biggest concern is that True-Name Nemesis has largely replaced the card in many Legacy lists, but it’s still the only option in Modern. Legacy is a metagame-sensitive format, too, so Geist may be in and out of favor as deck choices shift. Innistrad rotated a few months ago, so the window is closing fast on picking up cheap copies of cards from the block.

Cheap Stuff for Throw-Ins

Dismember

Paper price: $0.69

Online price: $4.06

This is the largest disparity on this list (by percentage), but that doesn’t mean I think Dismember is necessarily a good call. I include it here mainly to discuss how comparing MTGO and paper prices is not always a foolproof system.

The problem with Dismember is that it saw a four-of printing in the Magic 2012 event deck Vampire Onslaught, which put a lot of copies on the market. There were also two Bloodghasts and a Verdant Catacombs in that deck, so you can be sure that a whole lot of copies were opened and that the value didn’t have to depend on an uncommon like Dismember.

The card might double or triple up over time—it’s versatile removal that can be played in any deck. But just because it’s worth about 15% of its online version doesn’t mean you should be picking it up en masse. This is a reminder to look at the big picture when considering specs. Extra printings, different levels of demand across platforms, the format in which the card sees play—these are all factors that can make or break successfully speculating on a card.

Blade Splicer

Paper price: $1.00

Online price: $3.00

This isn’t normally a card that would be on my radar, but it actually made number 42 on MTG Goldfish’s Modern creature staples list. This also saw an event deck printing, so be careful about going too deep. But it seems like a worthy throw-in target to even out trades, and you might even make a couple bucks down the line.

Just One Tool of Many

Using price comparisons between MTGO and paper is just one tool of many in a speculator’s arsenal. Don’t get so caught up on price discrepancies or similarities that you miss big-picture issues like additional printings on one platform or the other, differences in demand, and other crucial factors. Speculating isn’t easy, so it’s important to use all the tools and information at your disposal in order to be successful. Have comments? Please share below or on Twitter @dbro37.

Jason’s Alticle – 50%

Posted on January 21, 2014January 29, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Someone who recently read my first MTG Price article messaged me the other day and asked me a question about it. It gave me an excuse to re-read it, and this anecdote is only really relevant to the story because it reminded me of the time I said people only read finance articles because they want to make more money.

I hope you're not looking to me to make you money, folks. I've said it time and time again--this is not a finance article.

I don't believe me when I say that, either.

Only 50% of Modern Cards Have Spiked This Off-Season

In a normal year, we would have had to wait for Modern season to roll around for cards played in Modern to spike, but that hasn't been the case this year.

I remember thinking I was really slick buying Grove of the Burnwillows for $15 because I figured their adoption in Legacy would make it a $25+ dollar card during Legacy GP season (1 event) and I made $9ish in profit per card selling them on TCG Player. Little did I know that the $25 I got was a little over 50% of what I could have gotten. Grove is at $40+ and is selling out.

Now, people are saying "Well, it's a four-of in Modern Tron" but is Modern really that much of a price driver in the off-season? I think it will take a while for copies of Grove to make their way back into the hands of sellers on TCG Player, which is the primary driver behind price decline. A competitive group of individual sellers undercutting each other leads to a race to the bottom and keeps prices lower.

However, people are noticing that TCG Player is easy to buy out and a TCG Player buyout has lately served as a signal to the rest of the market that there is a run on the card, leading all of the other sites to raise their prices, irrespective of how many copies were for sale on TCG Player before the buyout.

We used to be dismissive about buyout conspiracy theories because we assumed it would take tens of thousands of dollars to do it and it was very risky. For every Star City buyout of Misty Rainforest there was a buyout of Aluren to point to.

It doesn't take tens of thousands of dollars to buy out TCG Player. Someone bought all the NM copies of Sygg, River Cutthroat over the weekend and I bet it cost them less than $300. Buying Sygg at $2 a copy and waiting for someone whose opinion is valued to say on Twitter that the card will hit $10 is a great way to make a few grand in a short period of time.

It will take a year for the people who bought in at $10 to try to sell on TCG Player, first at $8, then $7, etc. Sygg will probably be a $5 card in a year as we see these precipitous spikes settle between their pre-spike and plateau price, usually at about 50% of the plateau.

Your strategy in the Modern off-season is to buy the stuff you want to play with now. If it hasn't spiked yet, it probably will, unfortunately. People are figuring out that spending a few hundred bucks is all it takes to buy a small number of copies on TCG Player because someone will notice and post it to Reddit and they'll buy out the rest of the internet for you.

I'm not advocating doing that, I'm advocating buying Modern staples that have not spiked yet, because every card is poised for a similar spike. With Summoner's Egg, Fist of Suns, Norin the Wary, et al. going up, cards are spiking irrespective of playability and longevity and the classic analysis we used to put into card spikes no longer applies.

The finance community can only write so many "For the love of Heliod, people, Card X is a terrible spec" articles that the buyers don't read before we realize that the landscape is changing. If Master of the Wild Hunt can spike because of a five-mana uncommon, all bets are off. The only reason Etched Champion hasn't spiked yet is because Travis Woo hasn't built a deck with it.

Get your staples NOW. Get extra copies if you want. People aren't waiting four hours to see if Fist of Suns is going to win a single game Day 2 of a GP, you think they're going to wait all the way until Modern Season?

Ironically, the best specs right now are the cards that have always been good specs. The "ZOMG Norin the WARY!" crowd was also the "I don't know, Restoration Angel was a promo and it is only a three-of in Pod. Probably a bad spec," crowd.

Pick up stuff you always knew was a good pickup, but do it sooner rather than later. Stuff is spiking 50% earlier than it normally does, and in 50% of the time.

50% of All Pro Players Are Now on Team Channel Fireball

Star City must have done something worse than normal. Buying all the Trostanis on the internet a few days before Brimaz was spoiled seemed shady to me, but no shadier than usual. But there was a mass exodus from Team SCG.

First there was this announcement. Then there was this one.

Apparently SCG "failed to reach an agreement" so either CFB wrote a bigger check, which is hard to believe, or SCG realized they didn't need to field a team for publicity anymore because of the success of their Open and Invitational Series.

Whatever happened, Roughly 50% of all known pros are on Team Channel Fireball, now. If this seems crazy, remember that the other 50% of Pros are on Team MTGMadness and most people in the United States haven't heard of that team.

50% of Born of the Gods Mythics Are Spoiled

And so far there is only one good one. Either they are saving the best for last, or this set is going to be total dildos. If this set does turn out to be dildos and we don't see another good mythic, I want to bring something to everyone's attention now.

When I went back and tried to figure out how the finance community got Voice of Resurgence so wrong, saying it wouldn't maintain its $20 preorder price, I realized that at least 50% of the reason Voice is so expensive is that it was in a terrible set.

If people are paying $100 for a redemption set of Dragon's Maze, 50% of what the value is in the form of a Voice of Resurgence, and this has kept the price high. If there were other cards worth money in Dragon's Maze to take some of the pressure off of Voice, the price could go down, but that isn't the case.

With 8/15 mythics in Born of the Gods spoiled, Brimaz will not be able to stay as low as its $20-$25 presale price.

This is a rarity and I hope you appreciate what it means when I am say this--I would order a set now for $80-$90 on eBay if you plan to play with these. Unless we see very good mythics in the last 50%, Brimaz is going to be artificially inflated. This is your second chance to buy Voice of Resurgence for $20, something I talked you out of before.

If the rest of the set is good, it's less imperative. Still, I won't make the same mistake again. It's possible Brimaz is $5 in a month and I'm making an entirely different mistake, but I think my logic here is sound.

If one card is 50% of the value of the set, it's going to cost 50% of the set's value. Voice of Resurgence is getting slightly more affordable but it took forever and with no more redemption of Dragon's Maze, supply is effectively shut off.

Pay attention to spoilers, we only have 50% of the mythics to go and there's no way Spirit of the Labyrinth can maintain its $7 presale price, let alone pick up the slack for the rest of the set.

Keep reading, this article is only 50% over.

Grand Prix Sacramento

Was Limited. I guess this 50% of the article is going to be 50% easier to write.

SCG Open Columbus

I didn't go to Columbus this weekend because reasons. I did so much traveling over the holidays I wanted to spend a weekend recovering at home, and while it was relaxing, I probably should have gone to hang out. I do, after all, have merch to distribute.

Others did make the trip to Columbus to half-heartedly battle it out in a lame-duck Standard format that is begging for multicolored cards. Sitting on Mutavault? You should sell those things, man.

SCG Open Columbus Standard Top 8

The real question in my mind is whether Michael Kenney's big Boros deck is a real deck outside of this weekend and whether it will want the new, mythic phoenix from Born of the Gods. Chandra's Phoenix pairs better with Chandra, a card that fell off a bit and which I am glad to see back. The new Phoenix is a Browbeat, and I don't like Browbeat, at all.

The deck as it stands seems powerful and benefits from a format with removal that is a tad clunky, something Born of the Gods aims to fix, at least for black. All in all, this appears to be the best Magma Jet deck we've seen.

Even this two-color deck is jamming two Mutavault, because reach is important and you won't need all of your mana late once you stick a big monster and a 'walker. This doesn't promise to buoy anything major, but could be a venue for the new phoenix if I'm wrong about its playability.

Kent Kitter's second place R/W Devotion deck was quicker but fell in the finals. This featured more temples, no Mutavaults and more devotion. Hammer of Purphoros here is solid. Could a deck like this want Xenagos? Three colors may be tough, but Xenagos seems like a better hammer, although hammer's second mode seems like a better Mutavault, albeit more mana-intensive.

I have seen a lot of Mizzium Mortars and Warleader's Helix, and the new Phoenix could stuff those cards effectively. Still, black will likely have no trouble dealing with it, and the new Echoing Decay will help with Assemble the Legion tokens, if only for a turn.

The second and eighth place decks might be a good venue for Xenagos in his godly form. With a ton of ramp and big fatties, we could see hydras doubling down the turn they come down.

Mistcutter Hydra seems powerful against the field and potent with Xenagos, and more likely to affect games you weren't already winning than the cute crap people have discussed doing with Kalonian Hydra. Polukranos plus Xenagos should usually do it--no need to get cute when you can just play with cards you were going to use anyway. Xenagos may be another card that won't drop much from his presale price.

I expected to see a lot more of the Japanese style W/B decks with a human base and Xathrid Necromancer everywhere; we just see the midrange style decks with the Blood Barons. With all the good removal black is getting in Born of the Gods, don't expect Blood Baron to fall out of favor.

Obzedat is all but replaced and could really plummet in price to a point I am comfortable picking him up, although that point is around $5. Don't laugh--we had ample opportunity to scoop Trostani at that price and now she is way up, buoyed by the only good card in the set (so far).

Black Midrange seems like the play going forward--tons of crowd control removal and resilience to their removal in the form of Blood Baron. You don't want to be futzing around with Xathrid Necromancer when they can Infest the board.

Matthew Canada and his Mono-Blue Control were pushed to 6th place, but he managed Top 8 at least; more than we can say for Mono-Black.

U/W/R Control? Apparently SCG should have kept at least one of their former players around to help them name decks. This is U/W and has the option of boarding in a few Dark Betrayal.

The W/B Humans build got 9th. Down but not out. Don't expect the deck to be playable when Born of the Gods is out, though.

Five Mono-Black Devotion decks in the Top 16, but none in the Top 8. Is that a signal? Is the deck really too good to be dealt with? Maybe black players aren't yet ready for Last Breath for their turn two Pack Rat. If that is the case, expect the strategy to bounce back. The removal black is getting is stupid.

That does it for Standard. I would divest from Mutavault and Xathrid Necromancer and invest in stuff that is expensive already. I expect green-red to be even more of a thing given how good Xenagos looks, at least compared to the other gods.

50% done with this half--just Legacy to go.

Star City Open Columbus Legacy Top 8

So Nemesis Blade is being called "True Delver" in the hands of Brad Nelson who actually finished 16th. 16th is really good if you're not Brad Nelson. If you are, people are disappointed. Don't be. The deck is good, and it pushed Stoneforge to $30 and that's a lot of work.

The best blade deck on the day was third place's "Supreme Blade" deck, using Supreme Verdict for crowd control. Winning through a Jace mill as often as Batterskull from the look of it, it's a card advantage-intensive deck that can lock the board down with myriad sweepers. No True-Name here; it doesn't have protection from Verdicts, yours or theirs.

Pet Deck of the Week could go to Reanimator, but it's been cropping up a ton lately. The deck doesn't run anything more recent than Griselbrand but its popularity of late is hard to ignore. The deck is getting tuned nicely, and I won't call it a "pet" deck the way I may have a year ago.

Scott Muir's Stax deck takes that prize, making me smile and earning him 15th, which is better than Brad Nelson and therefore pretty good.

Would I be remiss if I didn't mention Western Michigan's own Ken Crocker in 7th? Probably not. Ken decided that "True Blade" didn't jam nearly enough Lightning Bolt. It's Legacy, guys. Jamming a little red is the easiest thing in the world and it opens up your sideboard a bit.

Blade decks were everywhere. I hope you got Stoneforge before it spiked. With nearly 50% of the Top 8 running it, this card is not likely to get cheaper soon.

I didn't skip Adam Fronsee, I just think Sneak and Show is a douchebag. Not the guys who play the deck, the deck itself. It's a douchebag.

If Sneak and Show were a guy, it would be a guy named Chad with a popped collar A&F shirt and sandals and a sideways hat drinking a Natty Light and talking about how he felt up a drunk chick at an O.A.R. concert. Don't play with the Chad of decks.

Edward Pfender jammed the Jund Depths deck we kind of expected to run the tables and was the only one in the Top 16. I hope to see more in the future.

Is Blade pushing out other fair decks? What is here is telling, what is not here could be equally telling. No Merfolk. No Goblins. No Jund. No ANT.

No Death and Taxes. That may change--with a $7, 3/1 hate bear promising to stop everyone from drawing extra cards, Hate Bear decks may have the dude they need to stop unfair decks from Brainstorming and Pondering their way out of trouble. I don't know whether Spirit of the Labyrinth can maintain $7, but I know Legacy wants it. I don't expect the card to affect Modern or Standard all that much.

Goodbye

That does it for me this week. Join me next week where we'll have more spoilers and more Standard results to pretend to care about. Until next time.

Insider: [MTGO] Buying Cards on MTGO

Posted on January 21, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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The Classifieds section on MTGO is the place to go to buy and/or sell cards. This gigantic market place is very impressive and confusing at first. If you don't (or can't) use any search filters, i.e. using a word with the search tool, the Classifieds is like a gigantic list of offers from which it is almost impossible to find what you are looking for.

Unfortunately, searching the Classifieds with the card's name probably won't solve the problem. Especially with Standard cards, you will still be left with hundreds of offers, whether they are buyers or sellers.

Another issue, when dealing with bots, is that many of them probably have the card you want in stock but are not showing up in your search result if their actual offer does not contain the card's name. Nothing guaranties that the offers you see really represent the best price in town.

Sometimes humans post attractive offers at prices significantly cheaper than bots, but in general, bots have the best prices because they can adjust their prices to 1/1000 of a tix. A common feature of all bots is to save cents of tix left behind as credits for future transactions. But what should you do with fractions of tix you don't use? Does it even matter to leave credits on the table?

In this article I'll cover and discuss the pros and cons of buying by posting your own offer or buying from humans or bots. I'll also mention useful tools and information sources you may want to use in order to find the best potential speculation targets.

In addition, I also invite you to check two past articles from Matt Lewis--Getting Started in MTGO Speculating Part 1 and Part 2.

Monitoring Opportunities

As Matt stated in his past articles, research is key when you want to find targets to invest in. The more information you get and the sooner you get it, the more benefits you are likely to make. StarCityGames articles, ChannelFireball free articles/videos, and news and Daily Events deck lists from Wizards.com are great sources of info.

Recent examples have shown the strong speculative impact that Travis Woo & colleagues can have on the market: Disrupting Shoal, Jarad, Golgari Lich lord, Shadowborn Demon, Summoner's Egg… how about a 500 % profits in three days? Check them regularly as (almost) everything they touch is transformed into gold in one or two days.

In addition to these websites and others, I'm also regularly checking Mtgotraders Hotlist. Their hotlist provides good insight about the cards in demand at the moment. This list is updated constantly and when I see unexpected cards or cards that have a higher price compared to what I use to know, I double-check with other sources, including mtgGoldfish.com for an history of the prices trend.

MtgGoldfish is probably the best addition since Matt's articles. This website provides free access to a tremendous amount of information, and is definitely a website you have to use, if you're not already.

It used to be limited to rares and mythics but now you can check the price history of all cards on MTGO. MtgGoldfish gives you access to daily and weekly movers (useful to detect spikes), set prices variations, decks that used such or such cards, boosters prices, and more.

MtgGoldfish is very powerful when it comes to what I have called cyclical investments, Modern cards in particular. With a 2+ years of price history, you can easily see the low and high of any cards. Therefore, it becomes easy to predict when is the time to buy and when will be a good time/price to sell.

I check mtgGoldfish around 10 to 20 times a day. Whenever a card grabs my attention I go check its price history.

Posting an Offer to Buy

To be honest, buying cards through my own offers on the Classifieds probably represent less than 5% of my total purchases. Even if you propose good buying prices, it takes hours and hours to collect cards this way.

Try to put yourself among the best buyers, if not the actual best, on the Classifieds. Remember that you are buying cards to speculate on them, not to complete your collection. You would rather make 15% profit on cards you bought at a slightly higher price than potentially 20% on a card you will never get because you are too cheap. If your prices are too low and not attractive you won't make any deal.

Buying cards using an offer works best for mythics of the new set during release events, when players are actively selling freshly opened cards and when buying prices from bots are not quite optimized and too low.

Finally, you probably won't be able to buy cards under 0.5 tix this way. Also, if this method is barely 5% of my total purchases, it is probably close to 0% for non-Standard cards as fewer people are willing to sell them. If you don't have a lot of time to spend on MTGO and are chasing Modern/Legacy/Vintage cards you should directly go for bots.

Buying From Humans

On the Classifieds, offers from humans can sometimes represent the best deal. Either they want to get rid of cards rapidly or they are not aware of the real price of a given card. It even happens that some humans are selling cards that bots on the Classifieds are buying for a full tix more. In any case, these types of opportunities don't last long.

Looking for humans on the Classifieds can be fastidious as they are flooded by bots offers. Offers from humans are usually shorter, have round prices and have no colored icons or small icons in their offers. They should stand out from the bots offers by their simplicity.

Buying From Bots

Extra Credits

Let's tackle the problem of left-behind credits. This is a recurring question from people who want to give MTGO a try. What do you do with the unused credits? do you buy junk rares or something else? Do you look for another bot?

Here is how I see it. During your transactions, you will leave an average of 0.5 tix per bot chain, since you leave from 0.001 to 0.999 Tix. If a given bot constantly offers good buying or selling prices, you will find yourself coming back frequently. Your are likely then to use these credits left behind in a near future.

Consider these "unused" credits as a 0.5 tix lifetime fee for the usage of a given bot chain. When you think about it, this represents a very small "fee" in order to be able to invest and speculate on MTGO as much as you want. At the moment I probably have ongoing credits for about 30 bot chains.

Depending on the size of your bankroll this can be a chunk of tix you are not happy to "sacrifice", but the flexibility and opportunities you get should counterbalance the inconvenience.

Mtgo Library Bots

To me there are two types of bots, the Mtgo Library bots and the others.

Mtgo Library bots don't share credits among each other since they have different owners but some people own a bot chain composed of five or more bots that share credits. A lot of bots on MTGO use the Mtgo Library bot system, and all cards sold and bought by the Mtgo Library bots are referenced!

Searching for cards using the Mtgo Library website is easier than ever. Simply enter the card you are interested in in the search window and two tables will open with all the bots selling and buying your card.

Then, search the Classifieds for the name of the bot you want to buy cards from. Double-check the prices once trading with the bot; sometimes prices do not match between the Mtgo Library website and bots, I think due to a lag in updates.

Mtgo Library is comprised of hundreds of bots, not all of them are equal. Some only have couple of hundreds of cards, some are a bot chain with five or six bots with virtually everything in stock.

Below is a list of bots that I use on a regular basis, and therefore don't mind leaving credits on. When I'm looking for a card from a bot that I have never traded with before I generally don't buy it, and wait to see if that bot pops up again for other cards. If it does, I may commit to leave some credits.

This is a list of bots or bot chains that I have found relevant for speculating online. If you are not familiar with them, you can be sure you'll come back again and therefore you can leave credits on them:

Shop_pearl, Shop_jet and Shop_Ruby
Awesomebot
Sylvanbot
______11_____ and the other numbers, belonging to the Worldbot chain if I'm correct.
Cardkingdom
GamingBot, XtremBot, Cardcastle and other bots from this chain.
Tolaria
Mtgo_bazaar bots
Cardboom bots
CardStock bots
QuarterOfSix bots
..i.buy.everything and __i_buy_everything bots
VRTStore bots
CheapStuff bots
JBentham and JBStore bots
Mtgo_resonableprice bots
MtgCardWarehouseBot
stock_market_bot_ bots
Insane_Smart_Bot bots
TraderVic
scoopbot bots
Sellercity
MTGOVB_ML
Cardfiend bots
norntrader bots
HSStore
billioncardsbot
_Tixos.Shop bots
SullTecBot
karonathefalsegod

New bots are added frequently, and this list grows a little bit every month.

Other Bot Chains

Mtgotraders, Marlonbots & Cardbots

Two years ago, I was not using these to buy cards, but as the MTGO market and the competition intensified, these bot chains (that do not share credits but have strictly equivalent prices) offer more and more attractive prices.

They will almost never be the cheapest but they will have cards in stock almost all the time, which is where their strength is. Especially for Modern/Legacy/Vintage cards, Mtgotraders, marlonbots and Cardbots are dealers to consider. I keep an eye on Mtgotraders prices frequently.

Goatbots

Goatbots really changed the bot experience this past year. They developed a smooth, fast and efficient bot system. Their prices are very attractive, they are frequently the cheapest regarding to Standard and MMA cards. Too bad they don't sell older formats, Modern in particularly.

Their spreads are also low which makes Goatbots a great bot chain to buy from and sell to. They have a huge stock which allow you to easily buy up to 2x 12 cards/boosters per day.

AboshanBots

There's three of them. They use an interface similar to the Mtgo Library bots but their prices are not referenced in the Library. If you want to find them in the Classifieds, typing "Aboshan" in the search bar won't help since many other bots use the word "aboshan" in their offer! However, using "we pay" as a key word you will find their three bots only.

They usually have a high selling prices which doesn't make them a good target to buy on a regular basis. They are, however, one of the best place to sell your cards.

On some specific occasions, Aboshanbots might be the place to go to buy cards. Unlike Mtgotraders, it takes AboshanBots more time to update their prices when a sudden spike happens, such as after a GP or PT results. Since they are not referenced by Mtgo Library it is harder for people to check their prices.

Sometimes AboshanBots still have in stock the card everyone is looking for, and at a decent price! I remember that on the Sunday night after PT Gatecrash AboshanBots were still selling their Falkenrath Aristocrats at 17.5 Tix, while the Hotlist bot from Mtgotraders was buying them at 21!

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Strategizing the Buyout

Posted on January 20, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Well, another week of crazy MTG speculation is in the books. Some of the interests from last week trumped those from the week before!

Seriously guys? Norin the Wary? I know all about the discussions in the forums and how this card has Modern potential. But I would encourage everyone to stop and think for a few minutes. How good does that deck have to be in order to truly make a splash in the Modern format? Now go back and read what this terrible creature actually does. I’ll wait.

…

This is the thought process I went through when evaluating this spec. In fact I go through a similar thought process on every spec.

Now before you write me off as a fool, I will confess that I bought a dozen copies of Norin at just over a buck each. Within three days of receiving the cards they were sold for a nearly 100% profit after fees and shipping. Did I sell at the peak? It would appear not. But the simplicity of selling into hype and avoiding the “race to the bottom” has so much value to me that I was glad to take my 100% and run.

This week I’ll talk through my approach when confronting any buyout--whether legitimate or not, the same strategy applies.

Following my strategy may not guarantee you maximum profits for a single situation, but it will maximize your chances of making money without getting burned. Because at the end of the day, no one wants to sit on 100 Norin the Wary they paid too much for.

Finding Out

News travels fast these days. To have a strong chance to make profit on a buyout, you really need to stay ahead of the curve. As it turns out, my new wear’s resolution to participate more actively in the QS Forums has helped me do just that.

The Insider community has grown significantly, resulting in a diverse group of interested parties seeking to identify the next big speculation targets. This community with a common cause does a terrific job bringing these targets to the foreground in the forums. I highly recommend you check the Single Card Discussion thread morning, noon, and night.

Of course, Twitter is an excellent resource as well. Following the right people is a surefire way to identify what cards are generating the most buzz. And then there’s Reddit.

Needless to say, there are ample resources available to ensure you are aware of the next targets before the masses, or at least at the same time as the masses.

First Impression

Yet again the QS Insider forums is a valuable resource for evaluating the legitimacy of a buyout. The community quickly weighs in with their thoughts as the buyout is occurring. Whether it is something completely manipulative and silly like Didgeridoo or some new tech like Fist of Suns, the community is eager to share their opinions. Read these carefully and then formulate your own.

From here the next step is to find the cheapest copies online and compare prices against the pre-buyout price. If you’re getting in on the ground floor of a cheaper target, chances are you would be fairly safe to buy some copies. For example when Norin the Wary spiked, I bought a dozen from TCG Player as soon as I found out because they were only a buck each. Fairly low-risk as the card rapidly trended higher.

If on the other hand you are looking to participate in a mad dash for a hyped card as the target’s price doubles and triples, you may be too late. The later you enter the game, the less likely you’ll come out profitable. I completely missed the boat on Summoner's Egg simply because I was focusing my energies elsewhere.

But who cares if you miss a buyout or two? These occur on a weekly basis, so just wait for the next opportunity. Don’t get caught holding copies you paid too much for because you didn’t want the feeling of missing out. There will be another opportunity, I promise.

Quick Rule of Thumb

I wanted to make one more suggestion regarding the decision to buy into a spike. Multiple factors should be considered when determining how late in the buyout process is too late. These factors include card rarity, age, and utility.

If an older Modern card suddenly proves to be incredibly powerful in the right deck, the upside potential for such a buyout is much greater. On the other hand, if someone randomly speculates on a more recent card because one day it may be good in Commander, I greatly question the integrity of such a buy. And then of course there’s the incredibly stupid, like Cosmic Larva (for those of you who remember that scare). I think you get my point.

Bottom line: the decision to buy into a hyped card should be approached holistically, taking into consideration the right factors that determine the magnitude and duration of a spike.

To cite recent examples, I believe Norin the Wary was worth buying at $1 or below but not higher. The card was opened a bunch in Time Spiral and it isn’t proven in any significant capacity. While it is a bit older now, buying copies at $2 to try and sell for $5 on eBay feels like an approach destined for disappointing results.

On the flip side, Tectonic Edge’s spike feels much more stable. The card saw tons of play at the recent Modern GP, and it is essentially the Wasteland of Modern. While it’s only an uncommon, Worldwake was not drafted for long at all and the card’s legitimate playability suggests the recent price spike is here to stay.

As a result, it wasn’t a terrible idea to buy into this one even if you came a bit late to the party. The higher price is likely to hold.

Selling Strategy

Buying into a sudden spike is tricky, and the approach needs to be carefully calculated. My rule of thumb for selling is much simpler: always sell into the hype.

But…but…what if the card keeps going higher and higher???

Who cares? If you double up on a MTG investment, your return on investment (ROI) would be enviable to almost anyone. I especially love making 100% gains over the course of two or three days. Short of options, doing that in the stock market is very difficult and often requires significant risk.

What I am trying to say is, selling into the hype will guarantee you profit and make it much easier to do so. The risk of waiting too long and trying to race towards the bottom is too great to overlook.

From time to time, this strategy may leave you wishing you held. But once a card spikes, the upside on that card instantly becomes significantly lower. So low that it’s better to simply sell right away and use that money for the next buyout. And believe me, there will be another.

For example consider a buyout I actually believe in: Tectonic Edge. I firmly believe this card is worth $5. Yet the upside from here is greatly reduced versus the $1-$2 I paid on my dozen copies. I could hold onto these cards until Modern season, when I will possibly be able to sell these for $6-$8 (maybe 20% upside from here after fees) or I can sell now and use the money on the next Norin the Wary, which yielded me a 100% gain. Opportunity cost is a thing, trust me.

If you have resources to hold Tectonic Edges and participate in the next buyout, then I cannot fault you for the diversifying approach. But make sure you are consciously making the decision to put less resources into quick flips by holding onto the steady risers.

All About Risk Tolerance

In reality, it’s a combination of both quick flips and steady gainers that ensures a robust portfolio. I would be hypocritical to claim I focus all my resources on buyouts (though I probably do focus 90% of my effort on them).

As usual, my article is designed to make everyone aware of their own decisions, whether they be active or passive. Full awareness of our own strategies makes us more disciplined investors.

To close with a common saying, “luck favors the prepared”. Best of luck to everyone during this time of turmoil in MTG finance.

Daily Event With Rw Devotion

Posted on January 20, 2014January 20, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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Deck Overview

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Insider: Born of the Gods Release Queues

Posted on January 17, 2014January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Release Queues Change Again

Although the MTGO economy tends to be predictable on the whole, this is a function of the costs and prizes of the events people play. WoTC has shown a willingness to tinker with these factors, particularly for release events. Shifting these factors create changes in the economy which can give strong signals for what a speculator should be doing.

For the Theros (THS) sealed deck release queues back in October, WoTC modified prize payouts and entry fees for unspecified reasons. It's probable that the generous nature of these events was a holdover from years past and that the continuation of them was more a product of history than of sound business.

Previously these types of events cost 24 tix to enter, and paid out 13 packs to the winner (a record of 4-0), eight packs to all the players that finished 3-1, and three packs to the players that finished at 2-2. For THS, they were reduced in cost to 20 tix, but prizes were scaled down as well.

The outcry against the new entry fee and prize structure was loud. And it seems like the popularity of the release queues took a big enough hit that WoTC has revisited the changes and tried a new configuration for Born of the Gods (BNG). See the full announcement here.

In the table below, I've summarized the changes for Born of the Gods (BNG) and the last two sets. The 'Cost Per Booster' is the total entry fee divided by the sum of the boosters opened in the event and the boosters awarded as prizes. The 'Cost Per Awarded Booster' is the total entry fee divided by the total prizes.

Fees and Payouts	M14	THS	BNG
4-0 prize	13	8	12
3-1 prize	8	4	9
2-2 prize	3	2	3
Total Prizes	61	36	63
Entry Fee	24	20	26
Total Entry Fee	384	320	416
Cost Per Booster	2.45	2.42	2.62
Cost Per Awarded Booster	6.30	8.89	6.60

With the THS queues, it looked like WoTC was attempting to shift value to the average player and away from the grinders. But with their unpopular nature the price of THS boosters remained high, when they would have normally been flooding the market and dropping in price. There was even a short-term spec opportunity to buy THS boosters during the prerelease events and resell them a few days later after the supply dried up.

The updated entry fee and prize structure for BNG sealed seem like a less drastic attempt at flattening the prize structure and lowering the attractiveness of these queues to grinders. I think that people will once again play these events in large numbers.

The key metric is nine packs for going 3-1. At that rate, and assuming you can get 3 tix for a BNG booster, a player can temporarily go infinite by stringing together 3-1 finishes. The attractiveness of the old queues was the ability to resell the prizes in order to play over and over, while building up your collection of the new cards.

With this new structure, they've come back closer to the old queues, but not all the way back. They are slightly worse value than the M14 and earlier release queues.

Market Impacts

With the return of popular events which take in tix and award BNG boosters, the price of BNG boosters are going to tank hard and quickly. There will be no short-term rebound like we saw for THS. Sell BNG boosters as you get them unless you need them for drafting.

It's quite possible that they will stabilize in the 2.8 to 3.0 tix range. Keep watching prices when we get into the second week of release events. The trend should be apparent by then.

Tix will again be at a premium with these release queues, which means constructed staples from Modern and Legacy should see price erosion as players scrounge around for tix. Keep your eyes peeled for cards that seem to get very cheap without a recent reprint. This is the sign that the market has gone a little crazy, with low prices perfect for those hunting for value.

Pro Tour Valencia will also occur in the first week of release events. The constructed portion of this event will be Modern, so if you can identify a card from BNG that impacts the Modern format, it will see an increase in price the weekend of PT Valencia. I have a sneaking suspicion we might see the odd copy of Mogis showing up in Spain.

Cube and ZZW Queues

Cube will be returning for two weeks leading up to the release of BNG. There will also be Zendikar-Zendikar-Worldwake (ZZW) queues. Both of these events will have an impact on the MTGO economy speculators should be ready for.

First, Cube will discourage people from drafting THS. This will reduce demand for THS boosters and provide one last good opportunity to pick them up.

The THS booster spec has been widely discussed, modeled after previous booster specs on sound economic principles. As long as the payout for Constructed Daily Events switches from awarding THS boosters to BNG boosters, then supply of THS boosters will begin to fall even as demand is maintained. Eventually prices on THS boosters will rise closer to 4 tix as the available supply dwindles.

If you are new to speculating, I highly recommend doing some research in the forums and in my past articles on this type of spec. It's low-risk and liquid, ideal for those getting into the MTGO market.

Next, the return of ZZW queues will crash the market on Modern staples such as Scalding Tarn and the other fetchlands. It will be the last great buying opportunity for these cards in advance of Modern season this year, so be sure to get some tix ready to scoop these up.

Also be sure to pick up the Worldwake manlands, Lotus Cobra, Goblin Guide, and Bloodghast. But if you only have a limited amount of tix, the fetchlands are where you want to be.

If you are interested in Legacy, cards like Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor will also be value-priced. However, these will probably be on sale for a while so don't rush to load up on too many. The market for Legacy on MTGO appears to be growing, but Modern is still larger.

As usual, it looks like being liquid in advance of a set release will be profitable. Having tix to spend when everyone else is looking for them is a great position for a speculator to be in. And don't forget to have some fun with BNG!

Insider: Read and React

Posted on January 16, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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As of late, I've talked about the various types, mentalities and trends you see associated with the Magic Finance world. Altitude being a thing, grasping some concepts might be harder for those more recently exposed to the world of Finance than for others. When I refer to altitude, I'm speaking of some of the deeper principals that effect every single aspect of what we do.

For example, Magic Finance is considered a force all it's own. This force is wild, fickle, and changes with the most subtle of winds. It's easy to get lost in the “If's” of it, and lose focus on the “When.” Newer people will often lose track of cards that go through many phases, many “if this happens” type scenarios. If you focus less on that, and first start off with the card on it's own, in a vacuum so to speak, you will notice a trend that is much easier to predict. Often times with so many Insiders and Speculators and Stores getting savvy – a card will double or triple in value, almost over night. You hear “That card is insane.” and “I can't believe it was so cheap.” long after it's price jumped. The savvy Insider was ahead of all of this, though. For if you have correctly assessed the power level of a card, then you are simply waiting for the financial level of a card to move.

Stoneforge Mystic is currently in such a swing. The card has spent months sitting on retail sites at a fraction of what similar power level cards retail at. The card performs well and yet often the price of the card does not move. In a vacuum, it's easy to tell that Stoneforge Mystic is inherently powerful in what it does. It also sees play in multiple formats and is so good it's banned from what I hear. Often times we wait for a breakout weekend to force a card to move, but what if there is never the breakout tournament? Often times their are whispers of a deck doing well, followed by a sudden shift in what everyone thinks about a card. Overnight, it goes from "Zero to Hero." If that happens, you've got to be in the door fast. The maximum level of profit and accessibility to copies of that card typically is gone in a heart beat. It's a mad dash for your closest game store, online retailer, or eBay seller.

Where's the Secret Entrance?

As a store – I must take the long view approach on everything I do. Sacrificing current sales, to ensure that when a card takes off, I have the copies available is vital to my success. Finding the power level of a card is the key. In the context of playing this game, everyone can agree there are some inherently powerful cards. Stoneforge Mystic has been repressed in value mainly because everyone felt it was “too new.” That there were too many cards in circulation and that rotation had happened too recently. There is never a time where a card is too new to rise in value. All it takes is for one flash in the pan, and everyone will follow suit.

For that – let's take a look at Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn:

Post-rotation, the feeling was that most Zendikar Fetch Lands were a good long term investment, but up to that point – nothing like what would happen had occurred on such a public scale. The flash in the pan happened, changing every person's mentality on what this card could do fincially. The power level had already been figured out, and it was correctly assessed as being very powerful. What made the difference? A buyer came in a decided they wanted to corner the market. Thus, creating a great shortage of supply. Months later, the full effect of that mentality shift can be felt. No one wants to let go of Blue Fetch Lands. The stock is considered a “high hold.” A card that is doing nothing but climb in value. All it took to change that was one store setting the pace.

What's Next:

Currently, one of the things that are rarest to find – is the ability to outright destroy a Planeswalker. Most popular Planeswalkers are built to protect themselves in some fashion. These range from increasing it's loyalty on the first activation to preventing damage and more. If we want to talk about cards that are correctly assessed as very powerful then we have to look no further than Standard itself. There, alone, lie three prime examples of multi-format All Stars that are now just waiting for the “When.” WotC has not made it a habit of giving the ability to out right destroy a Planeswalker. Each one has it's own context for taking off, and each one is poised for significant gains in multiple formats.

On their own, each card is currently repressed in value. Mainly because of being viewed as readily available. Right now, these examples are just waiting for their moment to shine. Once the perspective changes on what these cards are financially capable of doing, then the price will reflect itself in the market. Too often, most stores read and react to these winds of change. They normally will not wait for the “When” moments as often times a new seller will come in on any random day of the week, and their current value for that card will still be profitable for them. For you, that's hard to accomplish. Focusing on when the card is the lowest and perception of the card is incorrect, will allow you to be ahead of the curve, when the opportunity finally does present itself.

This takes patience, fortitude, and accuracy in how you judge cards. The subtle change in mentalities will eventually effect these cards, and if you've put yourself in the correct position, they will pay massive dividends. All it takes is just a change in the wind and for you to already be locked and loaded.

Till next time.

- Dylan

Insider: Maximizing Time on Collections

Posted on January 16, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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I know for some of you this is old hat, but collection flipping is something we were all new to once. For me, it’s kind of new again in that I recently acquired several collections that I’ve decided to buylist because I don’t need that much inventory for my case at the LGS.

It’s been a long process working through these, and I’ve re-learned some old lessons, so to speak. Today I want to share a few tips on how to most efficiently manage your time working on collections.

If you’ve never done this before, then consider this an intro article as well. I’m not going to delve into the “how” or “why” of buying collections, but rather talk about physically processing it and turning it into cash. It’s been a long time since I’ve done an article about the benefits of collections and how to go about buying them, so let me know if that’s something you want to see in the future.

Anyway, today we’re talking about what to do when you’re staring at 10,000 cards in front of you that you need to turn into cash.

We talk about how “MTGFinance” isn’t all about the speculations on bulk cards we want to hit $10. It’s not all about buying Master of Waves the morning of the Pro Tour. A lot of it is grindy work, in the sense that it’s actual work rather than just buying 100 copies of the next big hype target.

A few days ago I sat down to do just this. Here’s what I was staring at.

Picking the Bulk

I’m sure most of you know what this is, and basically how to go about it. If not, a brief description is you’ve got a ton of unpicked bulk commons/uncommons to sort through. I sit at my couch, grab a drink and put on country music videos in the background when I’m doing it.

When picking bulk, there’s a tendency to pull out everything you’ve ever heard of before just in case it’s worth money. The more you do this the better you get at it.

I typically target cards that I think could buylist for a quarter or more. I know this may be a higher threshold than many people work with, but I think it was Paul Feudo who once said “only pick nickels if you hate yourself.”

Basically, grabbing something like Elvish Visionary that you can get a nickel apiece on is just not worth your time unless you like working for very little. Grabbing that first Visionary may not eat up a lot of time, but working through hundreds of nickels later just to make a few bucks really does chew up time.

My target is typically stuff that I think is in the quarter range on a buylist (MTG.GG is a great tool for this, by the way). Something like Tezzeret's Gambit buylists for a quarter to 50 cents, and that’s what we want.

I’m not opposed to picking cards worth a dime on a buylist like Farseek, but I don’t really make it a habit. A lot of time the stuff you think will be a quarter on a buylist will end up a dime anyway, so I don’t really go out of my way to look for more of this stuff.

When picking, here are a few tips:

Underpick on the stuff you know is cheap. Like I said, don’t go crazy on the Nettle Sentinels.
Overpick on stuff you have no idea about. Sometimes I’ll see stuff that may be either valuable or complete bulk. Sometimes you hit big and sometimes you don’t, but at the least you learn for next time. For me last week, those cards were Smother and Go for the Throat. I know Smother used to be worth something and I thought Go for the Throat may be a little too. It turns out Smother is actually just bulk now, while Go For the Throat actually buylists for up to a dollar, which is far more than I expected.
While you’re picking the bulk, just throw these all into one pile. We’ll come back to this later. Knock out all of your bulk at once and then put the now-picked bulk to the side, ready to send it off to your favorite bulk buyer.
Now go back to your “pick” pile. This is when you start to check whether a card is actually worth buylisting using MTG.GG and begin making piles to divvy up to stores.

Buylisting

The next step is actually selling it, and once you’ve sorted it into piles for stores, this is the easy part. At this point I have a few tips.

Don’t worry about sorting it yet, just get everything into their system. Many stores use different systems for ordering the cards, and it’s too much work at this point to figure that out. Just get everything into the system first.
Be wary of condition. This changes a lot in the end. Most stores will just mark down cards that aren’t in the desired condition, but some will reject them altogether, so make sure you keep an eye out.
Once you’ve placed the order with the store, they’ll almost always give you a list with the order they want the cards placed in. I’ve seen stores do this alphabetically (which actually makes sense), but also sometimes in color order. Either way, you’ll need stuff sorted by sets, so if you have some way to do that efficiently beforehand, you’ll save yourself some time here.

Shipping

It’s easy to overlook this part once you finally get through all the cards, but it’s actually hugely important. After all, if your cards are damaged in the mail you’ll lose out on a lot of money.

Depending on the size of the shipment, I use either a deckbox or a fatpack box or a larger card-holding box. It’s important that you pack it very tight with protective material like bubble wrap or foam peanuts. If you don’t have something like that, at least use something soft to pad the box for your cards. Then tape the entire thing together really tight. The goal is to prevent any shifting at all of the cards.
When you ship, use either a good box from your postal service of choice, or if you can, use a padded or bubbled envelope. Make sure to tell whoever is shipping for you that it’s fragile and not to be bended. Do not forget to get insurance on your package. Delivery confirmation is also good; if you have insurance this usually comes as part of the deal.
When selecting payment, I know it’s easier to just use PayPal, but remember that you’ll get hit with a fee when you do. Take the slower-but-more-profitable option and just have them ship you a check that you can take to the bank and cash. Sure, it’ll be a few days slower, but you’re also saving cash on the transactional end of the deal.

All of this assumes you’re selling to an online dealer. Things become much simpler if you’re able to sell in person, and even though the prices on some of the smaller stuff in particular will be lower, you’ll save on shipping costs and time. Speaking of…

Time Is Money

This is probably the most important thing to remember with any collection. Turning a $500 collection into $1,000 is a great feeling, but if you spent 50 hours doing it you’re working for just above minimum wage, and that isn’t a great feeling.

Of course your first few times will go more slowly, but when you get the hang of it things move much faster. This goes back to the issue of whether or not to pick nickels and dimes from the bulk. Yes, it adds up quickly, but it also makes your shipment larger and takes up valuable time. Your rate becomes much better if you stick to pulling quarters or more from the box.

Wherever that line falls for you, I want to emphasize that you have to consider the time you’re investing into a collection when calculating your profits. Sure, it doesn’t change the fact that you did or didn’t make $500, but you’ll learn a lot more about what you need to buy and sell at if you track how efficiently you’re spending your time.

This is the bread and butter of “MTGFinance” for many of us, and figuring out how to optimize the process for yourself makes a big difference at the end of the day.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

P.S. I did an AMA (Ask Me Anything) on Reddit earlier in the week. Check it out if you get a chance!

Counterfeits, Mono-Black & BNG Finance

Posted on January 16, 2014January 16, 2014 by Mike Lanigan

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Don’t Support the Counterfeiters

The hot topic in the Magic community over the last week has been about counterfeit cards. Someone set up an extremely accurate way to forge Magic cards and began spewing them out into the world. It’s scary how closely they resemble the true copy of the card.

If you have not read about this fiasco yet, hop on over and read the article written by Chas Andres on this subject. He did an amazing job going over all the aspects of this topic this week and made sure the article went up on the free side so everyone could read it. Take a moment to read it if you haven't already.

Chas's main point is that brick-and-mortar stores rely on singles prices in a myriad of ways to stay profitable. If singles prices drop drastically, the basic business model of these stores is seriously harmed. Many may not stay afloat on the basis of other sales. The ones that do probably won't be dedicated principally to Magic.

A blanket price crash would similarly affect third-party tournament series, professional Magic writers, and ultimately the people in R&D themselves. If the cards WoTC are selling are simply not being bought, the justification for hiring the best talent in the gaming industry wanes quickly.

Near the end of his article, Chas writes,

So yeah, if counterfeit cards flooded the market, you could play Legacy for free with fake cards—-on your kitchen table with some friends. You can already do that with a stack of basic lands and a marker.

Good luck finding a tournament to play in though.

Chas is exactly right. If we start supporting these people trying to make easy money off of us, we will put the game we love in danger.

In my opinion, this is the best game ever made. I've spent over a decade having tons of fun playing Magic. I don't want anyone to mess with that and I hope you feel the same way too.

Beating Mono-Black

Standard: the Mini Game
Step One: Can you beat Mono-Black?
If yes, proceed with testing your deck against other decks.
If no, play another deck.

Let me illustrate my point with a short story. Last week, my friend played in a local eight-man Standard tournament. In this event, he played against Mono-Black Devotion, that’s right, all three rounds.

Not convinced? Go back and look at the archived video from the SCG event in Orlando this past weekend. The first five or so rounds of the event were all Mono-Black Devotion vs. something and they featured more throughout the rest of the day. There was one traditional version and two splashing white in the Top 8.

Mono-Black isn’t going anywhere and if you are not prepared to defeat it regularly, you will not be successful. Either figure out how to play the mirror successfully or find a deck that beats it regularly.

The following are some good options for beating the best deck in the format.

B/W Humans
by Mike Lanigan

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Soldier of the Pantheon

4 Tormented Hero

4 Precinct Captain

4 Imposing Sovereign

4 Cartel Aristocrat

4 Xathrid Necromancer

3 Banisher Priest

2 Sin Collector

2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa

Spells

3 Thoughtseize

3 Orzhov Charm

Lands

4 Godless Shrine

4 Temple of Silence

2 Mutavault

9 Plains

4 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Mogis's Marauder

2 Rootborn Defenses

2 Sin Collector

2 Duress

2 Glare of Heresy

1 Dark Betrayal

2 Ultimate Price

2 Gift of Orzhova

The best deck for the job is my current pet deck, Black White Humans. Last week, I wrote about how well positioned it is right now. My opinion since then has only gotten stronger. If I can manage it with my schedule, I will be testing that theory at SCG Columbus this weekend.

One of my friends joked the other day that I've been playing the same deck for the past two years. When you think about it, B/R Vampires, all the versions of the Aristocrats, and now B/W Humans, are quite similar in structure. In short, the combination of early aggression, disruption, and resilient threats makes this archetype a great one to bring to battle.

Having had much success with other versions of this strategy, it's no wonder I am so high on this deck right now. I'm sure there can be some upgrades to the list, but at the moment I wouldn't change anything.

B/R Aggro
by Luis Navas
1st place at GP Santiago

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Tormented Hero

4 Rakdos Cackler

4 Rakdos Shred-Freak

4 Spike Jester

1 Thrill-Kill Assassin

4 Mogis's Marauder

3 Xathrid Necromancer

4 Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch

Spells

2 Doom Blade

4 Lightning Strike

4 Madcap Skills

Lands

4 Blood Crypt

8 Mountain

10 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Burning Earth

2 Whip of Erebos

2 Erebos, God of the Dead

2 Dreadbore

2 Mizzium Mortars

4 Thoughtseize

1 Rakdos Guildgate

The point of this deck is to punish a format full of players who aren't ready for a deck this fast. Some of the draws this deck is capable of are too much for any deck in Standard to handle.

Obviously you won't curve out every time, but this deck is similar in play to my B/W Humans, but it's more all-in. Your mana curve is quite low, so you should not have a problem casting your spells either. The next tournament you attend won't be prepared for this deck, I can tell you that much right now.

The best part is the Mono-Black matchup, but the rest of your matchups are almost as solid. Madcap Skills has proven better than I expected and the drawback not as drastic. The deck plays like RDW and you should respect its speed.

The sideboard certainly needs retooling because it's been a while since this deck won the GP, but the deck itself requires relatively few adjustments. If I were going to play this deck, my first change would be to take out the Thrill-Kill Assassin and max out on Xathrid Necromancers.

G/W Aggro
by Andrew Shrout
2nd Place SCG Indy

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Experiment One

4 Soldier of the Pantheon

4 Fleecemane Lion

4 Voice of Resurgence

2 Skylasher

4 Banisher Priest

4 Boon Satyr

3 Mistcutter Hydra

Spells

4 Selesnya Charm

4 Advent of the Wurm

Lands

4 Temple Garden

3 Selesnya Guildgate

8 Forest

8 Plains

Sideboard

1 Mistcutter Hydra

2 Skylasher

3 Unflinching Courage

2 Last Breath

2 Rootborn Defenses

2 Polukranos, World Eater

3 Glare of Heresy

The last deck I want to mention today has been making some waves in Standard recently. The idea of G/W Aggro is not a new concept to Magic, nor to the current Standard. When we first arrived at Theros Standard, this was one of the most hyped deck archetypes. Players gave up on it because the metagame became dedicated to beating it.

Because it has been off the radar for a while though, a window of opportunity opened for players to pick it up once more. Shrout took advantage of this window to slice his way through the field at the Invitational. Although many more players are prepared for this deck once again, it is still a decent choice right now on the basis of a good Mono-Black matchup.

Personally, I hate the Skylashers in this and every list I see them in, but obviously I understand the reason behind their inclusion. Overall, I think this list is honed and sharpened to attack the metagame very well.

The Financial State of Standard

Over the last few weeks, the prices of Standard cards have really settled down. Previously, I was noticing many drastic shifts in prices on a weekly basis. Now, most of the Theros cards have found their approximate value and are holding steady.

For a business owner or grinder, having a stable Magic economy is a great thing and an important one to notice. If the values of all the cards are holding close to their previous weeks mark, trading becomes much less risky. While Theros was on its downward financial spiral this last month, it was difficult to keep cards priced at their actual value and not over- or undercharge players. Right now, you can be relatively certain prices should stay the same until we start seeing how Born of the Gods will impact their value.

One card that has not stopped its rise to financial fame once again is Mutavault. This manland is holding strong at or above thirty dollars! Unless Standard completely shifts away from devotion decks with the influx of these new cards, we won't be seeing this card's value tank anytime soon.

If devotion decks improve and separate themselves further from the rest of the metagame, $40 is not out of the question. Buy prices are high on this card too so trade for more copies if the opportunity presents itself.

If Born of the Gods is anything like Theros, move your cards quickly once release hits. There will be room for some cards to grow, but most of them will be at their absolute peak. This is not a new concept to Magic finance, but one that certainly holds true.

The Gods' Trajectory

Most of the gods' financial curves should play out, as they did in Theros, decreasing steadily until they find their stable price point. From what I can tell, this value is approximately $7.

All the gods followed the same trend except the one that has seen the most consistent amount of play, which is obviously Thassa, God of the Sea. Be observant of which gods are actually seeing play, because they will be the ones holding or increasing in value.

The others will hold their value once they settle due to casual appeal. After seeing how some of the gods play out in Commander, I believe all of them should increase in value over time. Both Thassa, God of the Sea and Purphoros, God of the Forge are busted in Commander and have been seeing tons of play at my shop. It's possible that the multicolored gods will have a higher price point because they should be more popular commanders than the single-color gods.

One card to keep an eye on for potential increase is Xenagos, the Reveler. For as much play as he is seeing, his $8 price tag is quite abysmal. Not only is he powerful in Cube and Commander, he is also an important building block in Standard.

Over this past week, I've spent too many hours brewing ramp decks focused on abusing Xenagos's +1. My initial comparison to Garruk Wildspeaker is proving accurate.

The main issue with building a ramp deck is that currently there are not many worthwhile goals to ramp to. Why make the focus of your deck generating mana, when there is no payoff at the end of the line?

I will be intently scouring the spoiler to see if Wizards has granted us the proper tools to make the ramp deck a reality. It's possible that some combination of Purphoros, God of the Forge and Garruk, Caller of Beasts is good enough to combine with Xenagos, but at the moment, I feel like were missing a piece of the puzzle.

Well that's all for me today, Magic players. There has been a lot going on the the financial side as well as the competitive side of the game. Stay tuned in the next couple of weeks, as we dive into the spoiler to see what to devote ourselves to next.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Resolutions and an Early Look at Born of the Gods

Posted on January 15, 2014January 25, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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I'm a little late to the party, but it's a new year and it's high time I set some goals for it. There are a few things on my list of resolutions for my private life, but more importantly there are Magical resolutions to discuss.

2013 wasn't a spectacular year for me with regard to MTG. My results consisted of second place at a PTQ and scattered SCG finishes that add up to one Invitational qualification for this year. Along with however many packs and some locally won Legacy/Modern staples, this doesn't add up to a whole lot. It's something, but this year I'm looking for more.

MOCS

While I've been playing on MTGO for a few years and have been aware of the Magic Online Championship series for as long as it has been a thing, it's nothing that I've ever actively pursued. I'd get to ten-ish QPs in a season but never felt the urge to hunt for the rest. There were a number of factors keeping me away, but this year there are more factors pulling me towards it.

Having access to the majority of the Standard card pool (thanks to Mike Hawthorne and Dana Kinsella) combined with an actual interest in this Standard pool has dramatically increased my online playing. Not only have I found a strategy that I really like, but I also feel like the cards already existing in Standard will naturally lend themselves to Standard staying somewhat similar throughout the course of Theros block.

By this I mean that I find it unlikely that cards more powerful than Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, Mutavault and Thoughtseize will be printed to completely redefine the format's pillars. Additionally, until M15 I'm expecting the mana to not get much better in Standard, which also drives things toward evolution rather than dramatic restructuring.

To some, this might sound I'm saying the format will stagnate and am for some reason calling this a good thing- but the point I'm trying to make is that with pillars that are unlikely to change it makes actually investing time and money into Standard feel more rewarding- if Devotion continues to be such a powerful mechanic- if the mana of three color decks continues to be difficult and if Thoughtseize remains unbanned then it won't feel like I have to relearn and completely reinvest every time a new set is released.

The other major factor is that QPs are much easier to come by now. Premier events have returned in high frequency and 8-mans pay out 2 QPs to the winner with you still getting one for losing. Additionally, the five round Standard Championship Qualifiers tied to Theros offer two QPs for 4-1 records and four QPs for 5-0ing. They're a bigger time investment with a higher entry fee than Daily events, but a 3-2 record results in basically breaking even. And if ye be brave enough the qualifier tournaments can be multi-queued with dailies.

This all in mind I've already earned 12 QPs for this season. 15 by the end of the season shouldn't cause me too much trouble. I don't know if I'm feeling ambitious enough to hunt for 35 to be able to skip the preliminaries, but we'll see as the end of the season draws closer.

Resolution- Start Grinding the MOCS

PTQs

Nothing could possibly make a person hungrier for a PT invite than finishing second at a PTQ. This year I'm making it a goal to top 8 some PTQs- ideally scoring an invite along the way. Grinding the MOCS will definitely help with this goal. There's the obvious factor that winning a MOCS will land an invite, but the additional playing will absolutely help step up my game. I've been playing a deck that I believe is very good to good results and I can definitely see things breaking my way on any given Saturday this Standard season. Sadly I'm missing the Wisconsin PTQs, but I have a shot in Iowa, North Dakota and here at home.

In order to get the best odds I'll have to start reading up on Modern as well. The Minneapolis PTQ being Modern is incentive enough, and the PTQ season only adds to this. Just picking up some variant of The Rock or just trying to burn people out seem like the safest options, but I've got a lot of time between when I need to know what to do and now.

Resolution- Produce Good PTQ Results/Try to Qualify

Invitationals

Going into the year with only one qualification doesn't feel spectacular. My general loathing of Standard has hindered my results in the past, but I'm looking to change all that this year. If Red Devotion remains viable post-Born of the Gods, which I suspect it will, I believe this will be a good year for me for Standard.

I don't travel as far for Opens as I used to, and only have one Invitational Qualification limits the number of Standard events I can play, but this year I'll be doing something I haven't done for a long time; Invitational Qualifiers.

The last and only time I played in an IQ was not long after the Jace, The Mind Sculptor banning in Standard. It was a Super IQ which meant that I got to split the finals for a fistful of dollars and a Q. I've only seen regular IQs in the area, which pay all the cash and the invite to the winner... So I guess if I'm going to play these I'll have to win them. Good PTQ practice.

Resolution- Grind IQs. Earn More Than One Invitational Qualification

That seems good enough for one year's work. The last thing that I want to talk about is a few Born of the Gods spoilers. There are only a handful of cards spoiled so far, but a few of them are definitely worth looking at.

Kiora's Follower

If the only thing that drew me to this card were that it got to be in the same deck as Burning Tree Emissary and Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx that would be reason enough to be excited. Sure, this doesn't look like it does a lot that Voyaging Satyr doesn't, but a few things come to mind. Two Bow of Nylea activations definitely isn't the worst.

The major reason that I'll be keeping an eye on this card is the Inspired mechanic. If there is an aggressively costed U/G creature with Inspire then I don't see how Kiora's Follower wouldn't see play.

Pain Seer

Speaking of Inspired, Pain Seer is a card that has fast become the topic of some debate. First thing's first- this card is definitely not as good as Dark Confidant. Needing an enabler to draw a card the turn that it's played or to draw a card when opposing threats are larger than x/2 is a significant drawback.

That said, calling this card unplayable is ludicrous. As long as Xathrid Necromancer is legal, this card will at the very least flirt with playability. Frontline Medic also lends itself quite well to mitigating Pain Seer's drawback.

Alternatively, this card might even have a home in Black Devotion. Underworld Connections is already the deck's best card in many matchups, so having another arena-like ability is definitely a boon. It is problematic in that there just not be enough room in the deck to support Pain Seer as well as the removal relevant to keep it active, but it's something that's worth exploring.

Dire Flames

Now here's a card that I can really get behind. The biggest weakness to the Red Devotion strategy is the need to maindeck too many removal spells that can't target players (yes, I know that Dire Flames can't either, but killing Planeswalkers is an upgrade as well)- thus weakening the deck's control matchups. I don't think that cutting any Chained to the Rocks from the main is right, but I've wanted to put the fourth Mizzium Mortars on the sideboard for some time. Dire Flames obviously has less blowout potential, but it has major upside against the following cards:

They're not the most played cards, but upside is upside. Additionally, having access to a card that kills Blood Baron of Vizkopa that can also target Jace/Elspeth is a massive boon. Leaving any Mizzium Mortars against Esper feels pretty terrible, but kind of necessary as of now. One or two copies of Dire Flames in the 75 makes the Blood Baron dilemma much easier.

How I would love for this card to deal six damage, but you just can't have it all.

One More Thing

The other thing about Born of the Gods spoilers that is definitely worth discussing is the confirmed absence of the BG and UR scrylands. Most two color decks want access to four scrylands, four Ravnica duals and even a couple guildgates to boot. Not only are scrylands just plainly better than gates, but they're also more or less necessary to fully support two-color decks.

The absence of the BG land will continue to make the green splash in Black Devotion awkward. This is great news for Chained to the Rocks players, as it limits the likely quantities of Abrupt Decays and Golgari Charms in a given tournament. Those cards RW's matchup against Black dramatically worse, and the lack of improvement in the mana department does a lot for the RW deck's relative power-level and longevity in the format.

Interestingly, the BG scryland and all the enchantment hate it brings with it will be released at the same time as the UR scryland, which I believe will ultimately make it less relevant. More Abrupt Decays will certainly make Boros aggro worse, but when the UR scryland is available I find it pretty likely that Fanatic of Mogis decks will be more inclined to play Turn/Burn than Chained to the Rocks. Of course, I'm getting way ahead of myself here. Interesting to think about though.

That's all for me this week. I've got QPs to grind! Good luck to everybody with their own resolutions, and thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf