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Insider: The Months Ahead

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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January

The Modern PTQ season is currently in full swing online. On top of that, there is a Legacy MOCS scheduled for early February. Just prior to the MOCS announcement, I was in the process of selling all my Modern investments. However, with a high profile Legacy event on the horizon, a card like Tarmogoyf will be in demand for both Modern and Legacy players.

The promo Force of Will being awarded for qualifying for the MOCS and playing in the prelims also provides a strong incentive to play this month. We've already seen an uptick in Legacy play with a Daily Event firing each day of the last week. For these reasons, holding off on selling any cross-format staples until the last week of January is the best move.

Return to Ravnica (RtR) has bottomed out as a set online, with the shocklands all bouncing off of 3 tix. Jace, Architect of Thought has also tried to break below 15 tix and failed to do so. These six cards are all safe bets that now have established price floors. After building a position in each of these cards, the discerning speculator should dig a little deeper and attempt to figure out which ones are the best of the best.

If forced to choose which shockland to buy, I'd take Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents first. Based on historical playability, these are some of the most-used colour combinations, although Steam Vents is seeing little play currently. I'd put Blood Crypt next, which leaves Overgrown Tomb and Temple Garden as the least appealing of the RtR shocklands. Both of these last two appeared in the original Ravnica and were heavily opened as a result. The presence of these older versions online will provide a natural cap to future price increases, whereas the relatively more rare Hallowed Fountain does not face the same constraint.

Cube will no doubt return at the end of the month to coincide with the paper prerelease of Gatecrash on January 26th and 27th. During the lead up to the online release of RtR, Cube draft awarded Mirage block and Tempest block packs as prizes. After recently awarding Urza's block and Mercadian Masques block boosters as Cube prizes, another out-of-print set is probably in line. I'll be dollars to donuts this time around we'll see Lorwyn and Morningtide followed by Shadowmoor and Eventide as prizes, but stay tuned for the official announcement.

Lastly, the new Banned and Restricted announcement schedule takes effect this month. The announcement is set for Monday the 28th of January, so after you've had your fun at the paper prerelease events for Gatecrash, be sure to stay up late on Sunday to be the first to read the announcement. There are usually several bots that are not updated regularly and it can be very profitable to pick up cards that become unbanned in Modern or Legacy. On the other side of things, dumping banned cards to bots with out-of-date prices is another must.

February

Gatecrash will be coming to MTGO in February. Up to and during the prerelease events, be sure to sell off any older versions of the Gatecrash shocklands. Currently there's not much opportunity to profit on these reprints, but if prices on Sacred Foundry or Watery Grave dip back into the 6-7 tix range over the coming weeks, don't be afraid to snap up a few copies. These should be selling in the 8-10 tix range leading up the release events.

Release events should be in full swing by the 16th of February. This is a good time to try to identify mispriced mythics. Sphinx's Revelation was available for 4.5 tix at the peak of RtR release events, so keep your eyes out for cards that are misunderstood. Junk mythics and rares can be bought on the cheap in that week too, but the key is not to overpay. As a rule of thumb, don't pay more than 0.5 tix for a junk mythic or more than 0.10 tix for a junk rare.

Pro Tour Gatecrash will be taking place at about the same time as Gatecrash release events. This event will feature Standard so paying attention to match coverage could lead to valuable insight into cards that are underpriced. No doubt the rest of the QS community will be trying to squeeze out some spec ideas from the coverage so check your email and participate in the forum discussions.

March

By the Spring, it should be more obvious which cards from Gatecrash have made the biggest impact and which cards have turned out to be duds. Also, mythics like Ajani, Caller of the Pride and Liliana of the Dark Realms (two cards I have recommended to buy in the past) will have either found a place in the Standard metagame or they will still be sitting on the sidelines. If the latter, it will be time to cut losses and sell these cards lest they get reprinted in Magic 2014.

Also, little-used cards from Innistrad, Dark Ascension and Avacyn Restored will start to fall in price as players give up on trying to make them work. The true staples might see one last price spike before the Summer, but in general the writing is on the wall for cards from Innistrad block as a speculative investment. It will be time to sell cards from these sets before the rest of the market gets a whiff of Fall Standard rotation.

Wrapping Up

Keep in mind the big picture when trying to figure out your next move. Rather than chase after the most recent flash in the pan, it might be worthwhile to keep a few tix handy for the B&R announcement. Also, be sure to enjoy yourself and play in some Gatecrash release events!

Insider: Modern Movements and the End of a Project

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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Welcome to 2013!

I hope you had a good Christmas and New Years (I know I did). In fact, the holidays brought some exciting news to my life –- my wife and I picked out a house to move to, and with any luck we’ll be closing on it in three weeks.

And in another, related, piece of exciting news, I’m planning to cash out my huge stockpile of Zendikar fetchlands to contribute toward the down payment. It’s great to see my boldest spec ever pay off so nicely, and I have between $1,500 and $2,000 in cash value of fetches to sell, a non-trivial amount when it comes to upping my down payment and therefore lowering my monthly mortgage.

And, for that, I guess I can thank Wizards for Modern! I was huge on fetchlands from the very moment they hit $8-10, and it has worked out well, Modern having playing a huge part.

When I last wrote, I gave the friendly reminder that Modern PTQ season was just around the corner. Well, now we’ve rounded that corner. PTQs start in a week or two, prices are spiking and people are noticing. That means it’s time to cash in on the positions you should have been building for the last nine months.

Working In-season

The easy bets of the past year, from big-ticket items like fetchlands to the smaller-but-still-sure stuff like Inquisition of Kozilek, are now gone. We’re seeing crazy stuff like Daybreak Coronet go nuts as people try to get a jump on the PTQ season. There’s a lot of signals being thrown at us right now, so what to make of it all?

Let’s start off with Coronet, which is sold out everywhere. It’s a card that has plenty of casual appeal in addition to the fun-looking Modern deck that throws all the enchantments onto Hexproof guys.

But it’s only going for $8-10 on eBay right now, and I don’t think you should get in now unless you do so cheaply. If you have copies, I’d either sell now or wait another week or two, but buying in now is risky.

But that’s an easy one, since one of the lessons I reiterate often is to sell into hype. Let’s talk more about Inquisition and other cards of its ilk.

I think it’s pretty easy to put a sell call on nearly every Modern staple right now, with a few exceptions. For starters, everything in Zendikar and after isn’t being reprinted in Modern Masters. That means that the ceiling on stuff like fetchlands and [card Inquisition of Kozilek]Inquisition[/card] won’t be affected by the coming set.

However, plenty of other pricey cards will be. Kitchen Finks, [card Elspeth, Knight-Errant]Elspeth 1.0[/card], Mutavault, Vendilion Clique, and plenty of others from Mirridon to Shards might see reprints, and prices are going to fall accordingly.

And the list doesn’t end there. Dark Confidant, Thoughtseize, the filter land cycle: all these things have to be considered a sell right now since the probability of a reprinting is so high.

Even though I expect most of the rares (and especially the mythics) to rebound eventually, it’s hard to argue with selling now as PTQ season gears up and we get good prices.

Fetchlands

Going back to myself for a second. When I first began acquiring fetches two years ago, my plan was to amass 200-300 and sell them four or five years later in the hopes of raising enough cash for a car. A few things got in the way.

First, because of the influx of demand from Modern, the acceleration on the cards was faster than even I expected. Since I traded for these rather than make a large cash purchase I couldn’t afford two years ago, my acquisition rate slowed significantly as I snapped up most of the ones in trade binders in the area. Even at this moment I own more than any LGS in my area, so I was more or less capped at what I could get. And prices rose quickly, cutting the time I had to stock up.

Not that I’m complaining. I’m more than happy cashing them out now and putting it toward my first home. But does that mean you should do the same?

Obviously you probably aren’t in the middle of closing on a home, so cash now may not mean as much to you, but what about fetches as a whole?

I see it like this. There’s a pretty reasonable chance fetchlands aren’t getting reprinted in the next year. But with the huge spike that occurred this season I think the market has corrected itself, and I can’t see anything like that happening a year from now. And looking two years down the road the risk of reprint gets really high.

With all of that in mind, I think it's reasonable to hold onto them for another year, but be aware you’re not going to see the same return you have in the last twelve months. That’s why I’m comfortable selling now, and I can’t fault you either way for what you choose to do.

Still Some Targets

Serra Ascendant looks better and better, as the casual demand behind this card props up a price that continues to rise as it sees more Modern play. These are often undervalued, and I like grabbing them early in the season. Likewise, Birthing Pod won't stay this cheap forever.

But there are even better targets.

Scars fastlands like Blackcleave Cliffs have seen some jumps already, but there’s no reason they won’t continue to rise. As everyone seems to be saying, Razorverge Thicket is probably the best deal out there right now. It’s not one of the most-played of the cycle, but with a $1-2 pricetag, you’d be crazy to not start stocking up on these.

Likewise, shocks are bottoming out as well, and will continue to do so as Gatecrash hits the market. If I had to pick two things to stock up on with money from the high-value Modern cards you should be moving in the next few months, fastlands and shocklands are at the top of the list.

That’s what I’ll be doing, anyway. And maybe I’ll land that car yet.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Reviewing the Year in Magic

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

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With the passing of the new year, like so many others I find myself reflecting back on the previous years’ events. There were so many great memories in 2012. For me, it was a year of travel.

One of the things I love so much about Magic is the opportunity it provides to see new places and meet new people. This is one reason I continue to struggle every week in my journey to qualify for the Pro Tour. Seeing the world, the interesting sites and the unique people is rewarding to a level that is challenging to put into words. This game has done so much for us as people. Even the intellectual intensity you subject yourself to by competing in large events will provide you with benefits in the rest of your life.

This past year has been a change in focus for me in terms of competitive play. Instead of focusing on money tournaments like Star City Opens, I made PTQs and GPs a priority. Attending four Grands Prix and seven PTQs was a great start for my resurgence into competitive play. I played more of each event in one year than in the total time I’ve been playing the game which reflects my decision to take the game more seriously. Despite such a dramatic change in the number of events, I wasn’t able to attend all of the ones I wanted to.

Of all the places I traveled to last year, the DC trip sticks out the most to me. From my success the previous year, I was qualified for the WMCQ (one of three Nationals tournaments for those that don’t remember). Despite playing in two events and losing on the bubble each time, spending Saturday night exploring the city of DC was an epic adventure that I will never forget. Even though I left that weekend without a qualification for Worlds or the Pro Tour, it was an unforgettable experience. These are the types of adventures this game grants to its players.

With all of this reflection, I decided I needed to not only reflect on the great memories I created, but also reflect on my tournament experiences as well. What I did right, what I did wrong, and what changes I can make this year. The process I used to do this is a fairly straightforward one. Here are the steps.

  1. Log into your planeswalker points account
  2. Write down every major event you attended. I would recommend GPs, PTQs and big cash events like SCG Opens.
  3. Add to your list the deck you played in the event. I did this by talking to friends and looking back at articles I wrote. Look at what format the event was also, that will help you remember.
  4. Determine your record for each event.
  5. Now, the hard part. Figure out why you were or were not successful at the event.

Although this process is rather straightforward, it can be tedious to gather this information. Then once you have it all, pin pointing the catalyst or flaw in your event is quite challenging. Do it anyway. I am going to tell you all about my list, but let me say, I learned more by doing this than from any single thing I have ever done. Here’s my catalog of adventures.

Last Years' Tournaments

Event: Modern PTQ #1
Deck: Splinter Twin
Record: 2-2
Analysis: At the time, Jund was not a very popular deck and I underestimated how many players would bring it to the PTQ. My first loss was against that deck. Configuring my list with that matchup in mind would have definitely helped as well as some additional testing of that matchup in particular. The second loss I had in the event was due to a play mistake my opponent tricked me into making but was ultimately my fault.

Event: Modern PTQ
Deck: Melira Pod
Record: 5-2
Analysis: This event was the day right after the previous one so info from that event influenced my deck choice. I had much experience with this deck and that should have weighed more heavily into my choice for the previous day. My first loss was to the U/W Tron deck that no longer exists in Modern. It is a bad match for the deck but the games were very close. The mulligan to five in game three paired with my inability to draw lands in game one did not help me win this match. My second loss was playing for top eight.

Event: Sealed GP Nashville
Record: Made Day 2
Analysis: This is one event we will never know the outcome of. After day one I was 7-2 and then I moved to 9-3 by the end of the first draft on the second day. Due to chaos exploding in the life of one of my traveling mates, I was forced to drop from the event before I could play out the second draft. Despite missing this opportunity, in the long run, I’m glad no one’s life was ruined. My confidence about my Limited skills was drastically improved from this experience though.

Event: Standard PTQ #1
Deck: Wolf Run Blue
Record: 5-2
Analysis: For this metagame, the deck I chose was perfect and exploited a hole that existed. If I could go back, I probably would have changed a couple cards in it, but I would not change the deck I played. Again I lost playing for top eight.

Event: Standard PTQ #2
Deck: Esper Spirits
Record: 0-2
Analysis: I tried to use a deck designed by Sam Black almost card for card. This did not work out well for me despite doing well with it locally in weeks prior. The window was closed for this deck to be successful and I did not move on like I should have.

Event: Standard WMCQ
Deck: Wolf Run Black
Record: 5-3
Analysis: Dungrove Green was just emerging as a deck and not taking it seriously cost me two losses in this event. With one or two cards changed in the deck, I could have fixed this matchup so that it was in my favor. Even though this was the right deck for the event, my weakness to one deck was exploited.

Event: Standard PTQ #3
Deck: Wolf Run Black
Record: 4-2
Analysis: After playing in the WMCQ the day before, I made some minor changes to the deck to run it back for the PTQ. Despite being undefeated on the weekend against the best deck in the format at the time, Delver, I still lost to the mirror and a rouge Venser deck. Based on my results in these two events, I was confident my deck choice was correct because I beat something like seven Delver decks over the course of the two days.

Event: Modern GP Columbus
Deck: WUR Delver
Record: 3-3
Analysis: Despite preparation and playing the same deck as two of the top eight competitors, I was unable to even make day two. This was my first constructed Grand Prix so maybe I was just unprepared for the event mentally but I’m not sure. I will say that even though I tested the deck, it was not one I considered “my deck.” It was basically a known quantity and I did not change much if anything in the list. In case you are not seeing the pattern, this is a bad thing for me. More on this later.

Event: Standard PTQ #4
Deck: Wolf Run White
Record: 2-2
Analysis: What I wrote down in my notes was, “right idea, wrong list.” Terminus was definitely correct for the event and it was the best card for the metagame. I don’t know if my deck was the wrong choice or if it just needed a different configuration, but it was not my day. Luckily my friend Josh won this event.

Event: Sealed PTQ #1
Record: 4-2
Analysis: From playing Return to Ravnica Limited I determined that your mana might be one of the most important aspects. In sealed you are often forced to play three colors since your playable cards are spread between guilds. If you have to choose, you definitely want the most powerful deck, but make sure your mana will support it. Ultimately I picked up my second lost due to a greedy play mistake. I did not play cautious enough and it cost me that match.

Event: Sealed PTQ #2
Record: 2-2
Analysis: My main goal for this event was to qualify, but I needed the planeswalker points to solidify two byes for this Grand Prix season so either way I was winning by attending this event despite my crew backing out on me the week before. My deck was actually solid for this event, but I had tons of mana problems. Basically I just could not draw lands all day.

Event: Modern GP Chicago
Deck: Naya Pod
Record: 6-2-1
Analysis: My draw was to the U/W Midrange deck. I probably could have played faster in this match or conceded game one rather than playing it out for so long but it really could have gone either way. The other two losses were against bad matchups but I made mistakes in both of them. Against Splinter Twin, I definitely sideboarded incorrectly and against Storm, I lost game two when I had the win if I had made the correct play.

Event: Sealed GP Philly
Record: 6-3
Analysis: This event was so frustrating for me because I lost five straight games in a row to mana screw despite playing more than enough lands in my deck. Those games accounted for two of my losses and almost another one. I did legitimately lose the last round to not qualify for day two though. They were such close games and overall a great match.

Event: Standard TCG Invitational
Deck: 4-Color Peddler
Record: 2-3
Analysis: One hundred percent of this event was due to me choosing the wrong deck for the event. For the previous two weeks the deck was great, but once Rakdos won those two big events, I needed to switch decks because that match was not in my favor at all.

Event: Standard TCG 5k
Deck: Rakdos
Record: 5-3
Analysis: The switch to this deck was a great decision but pairings that made me play against six mirror matches kinda sucked. One of the losses his version was just better than mine, one I missed my fifth land drop for two turns so I was one turn too slow to win, and the third loss was all mana issues.

Putting It All Together

After synthesizing this information I came to some conclusions. For me, playing a deck I designed or changed significantly is definitely preferable. Copying someone else’s deck led to disastrous experiences and short tournaments. Despite playing at a high level, I do need to tighten up my play, especially in Modern.

You may have noticed a lack of any successful finishes at major events. I did not include any local events that I won because I do not value their results nearly as much as the bigger events. Even though I did not top-eight any events, I felt my overall play did improve from previous years. Some additional preparation is needed to hone decklists or test specific matchups, but overall my conclusions about the right deck for the right event have been correct. That is a fact I am quite proud of. Now I just need to align those correct decks with tight play and low variance and I will be set for this year.

I hope you learned something from my analysis of my tournament experience this year. If you are serious about being successful in high-level Magic, I definitely recommend this process to identify your strengths and weaknesses. Honestly, I didn’t even know that I missed top eight that many times until I researched my event history. Maybe you have misconceptions about what happened this year too. It can be a good idea to look back with the benefit of hindsight to get a new perspective.

Make sure to create achievable goals for yourself also. In spite of my lack of top eights, my goal this year is to win a PTQ. In addition, making day two of Grand Prix is another top priority.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Analysis Force

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

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Mike Lanigan

Mike Lanigan is high school math teacher by day and a shop owner by night. His tournament grinding may have slowed a little, but his love of the game has not. Mike's goal is to bring you a mix of perspectives from shop-owner insights to finance tips to metagame shifts and everything in between.

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Posted in Free, Modern, PTQ, Sealed, StrategyTagged 1 Comment on Reviewing the Year in Magic

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RUG: Is It Charming?

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

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I haven’t been paying too much attention to constructed Magic lately. I’ve been putting a lot of time into Pauper Cube (in case you haven’t heard) and a lot more time into work. From what I understand Standard is really awesome right now, but seeing as I won’t be attending any Standard events until the release of Gatecrash I haven’t been paying much attention. Spoiler season has started but thus I think it’s a little early and I think that I’m a little under-informed to be writing about any of that.

That said I have a few thoughts on Legacy that I believe are worth exploring. And by that, I of course mean that I have a revision or two for RUG Delver. I’ve gotten the impression that by now many people are just plain bored with RUG, but playing RUG generates exactly the kind of Magic that I like and in my mind nothing has risen to dethrone it as the de facto best deck in Legacy.

The New Hotness

The updates that I have for RUG all revolve around this card:
It is good.
I initially included a single copy of Izzet Charm in RUG at a local event because I was bored, but I found myself in multiple situations where I found myself wanting to draw it. I ended up adding a second copy from there and it has been very good for me.

As one might imagine, Izzet Charm ended up taking the place of Fire/Ice, which has been a flexible slot for some time. This costs the deck some play against Maverick, Goblins and Elves! to be sure, but in my experience all three of those matchups are still quite favorable. Elves is easily the closest of the three but it’s also considerably less popular than the other two and is a deck that is often completely cold to an Insectile Aberration.

The other point where Izzet Charm is weaker than Fire/Ice is in its inability to damage players. This isn’t a huge concern of mine as RUG is a far cry from a burn deck, but many other players have raised this concern with me over my playing of Dismember and now Izzet Charm over spells that go to the dome. RUG is more than capable of winning long games and I don’t see giving up some small percentage of races as a very substantial hit to the deck, especially given the alternative utility that Izzet Charm provides.

What It Does Differently

The Spell Pierce option is obviously not without its appeal. RUG already finds itself playing a substantial number of copies of that card, though costing two mana is not insignificantly worse than costing one.

The major selling point is the ability to loot. It’s good for building Threshold of course, but this option also adds a lot of power to RUG going into the late game.

Before one can truly appreciate Izzet Charm, one must be acquainted with good Brainstorming. Two general rules to follow when Brainstorming are that you should try to cast Brainstorm on the last possible turn and that you should have some way to get rid of the two cards that you put back rather than drawing them again.

Izzet Charm is quite brilliant at playing the role of Brainstorm when Brainstorm would be a lousy play. Have extra lands but no fetches? Being able to loot instead of Brainstorm-locking yourself is awesome. The same logic applies to situations where you’re digging for threats but lacking a shuffle effect.

The card disadvantage of looting is not a non-factor, but if you have much experience with RUG you understand that you generally have more cards in hand than your opponent simply by virtue of not needing to commit too many lands. Obviously RUG hasn’t jumped on Careful Study or Faithless Looting for the reason of card disadvantage, but those cards also didn’t have two other modes closely resembling spells you want to be casting anyway.

Where's Combo?

The other change I have in mind for RUG is in regard to Force of Will. As Matt Nass wrote in his LA report combo just isn’t very good right now. Two-for-oning yourself against decks like BUG is just plain miserable and with Izzet Charm in the deck now we don’t want to go overboard on cards that generate card disadvantage.

That said, I don’t think that a deck that operates on mana as tight as RUGs can reasonably bench more than one copy of Force, and it absolutely matters against the Aether Vials that have been somewhat rampant lately. Benching the fourth is a pretty enticing option right now though. With Izzet Charm in the deck now I don’t think that the fourth Spell Pierce is needed in the 75, so that frees up a sideboard slot, and by placing Force in the board that means that we have an open maindeck slot.
I’ve been playing Vendilion Clique in that sideboard slot and it has proven quite good in multiple matchups- particularly in matchups where Tarmogoyf is a dud. I’m going to try Clique in the main this Thursday and see how it goes. I’m optimistic.

With the above in mind, this is my current RUG build:

RUG Delver

spells

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Nimble Mongoose
1 Vendilion Clique
3 Daze
4 Ponder
4 Brainstorm
2 Izzet Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Dismember
3 Force of Will
3 Spell Pierce
4 Stifle

lands

4 Wasteland
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
3 Volcanic Island
3 Tropical Island

sideboard

3 Tormods Crypt
2 Sulfur Elemental
2 Blue Elemental Blast
3 Red Elemental Blast
1 Force of Will
3 Submerge
1 Dismember

Trimming a spell for a creature hurts Delver of Secrets some, but I don’t believe this to be a huge deal. If I end up cutting Clique for a spell it will be because there is an effect that I want, not because I especially care about the one slot being a spell.

~

I’ve kind of taken a break from non-Cube Magic over the last couple weeks (designing a Cube is a lot of work!) but I plan to start battling more seriously in the short term. I had a pretty good year with Magic last year and I believe that if I dedicate more time to keeping my mind sharp I can have a great year this year. Thanks for coming along for the ride.

-Ryan Overturf

@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Rationality and Other Boring Facts of Life (More Thoughts on Safe Money)

Posted on by Tucker McGownd

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Welcome to my Introduction

 

Well hey folks. I hope everyone had a good time with Christmas and the other trappings of the holiday season, but a new year has come, and it’s time to delve into some of the most important months of trading and moneymaking in the MTG finance business.

This week, I’d like to discuss why I never went deep on Thundermaw Hellkite, why I don’t trade heavily in Jaces, and why mythics like Bonfire of the Damned never caught my fancy.

Consider, if you will, the reason why you go deep on a card- usually it’s because you expect the card to go up. At least, I’d hope so. If the card is worth 30 dollars, however, you need it to go up quite a bit before it’s worth the investment.

If a 30 dollar card goes up to 40, that’s a 1/3 increase in price. This is a big deal, and would usually get a lot of hype in financial circles. Consider a card jumping from 10 dollars to 15, a greater ratio of increase, allowing for a greater profit margin on the same input, and a much lower actual price increase.

I have problems with 30 dollar cards. When the average price of a playable rare is relatively low, a card that’s significantly above that is inherently less likely to increase in value- pointing to examples like Bonfire doesn’t make me incorrect, by the way, since the vast majority of cards in that price range inevitably plummet. Most planeswalkers come to mind.

I Do Love an Underdog

A ten dollar card, however, gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. At ten dollars we know the card is a rare, and played. Ten dollars usually doesn’t mean it’s played in everything, however, and the jump to 15 retail is often a matter of as little as being bumped to 4 copies in a deck rather than 2. Ah, I feel better about that- if the card is good, I’ve played it and I like it, and it’s not being played as often as it should, it’s easy. For a card to go from 30 to 45 it has to go from being massively played to almost universally played. A good card going from unplayed to played in one deck is more likely than a great card becoming ubiquitous.

Sure, Bonfire was a good bet, but in a vacuum I never bet on the good bets if they’re as expensive as Bonfire was. I like certainty to an almost unreasonable extent, and a card like Arid Mesa gives me certainty in a way that Bonfire never did, let alone Thundermaw Hellkite. Mesa’s now worth twice what it was a few months ago, something we take for granted, but Thundermaw doing the same thing is almost mind boggling- we all knew Mesa was going up, but Hellkite gained 20 whole dollars on its price sticker. Twenty dollars! That’s a lot of money! Nevermind that if you’d bought two Mesas on m13 release day when Hellkite looked awfully similar to an Andrew Jackson,  you’d be no worse off now.

This brings us to another danger of investing in the flashy, explosively powerful cards- what happens when we’re wrong? Let’s assume for a minute that you are not the perfect oracle of card prices. We can include that neither am I, or Doug or Sig or anyone else you might consider a trader. Everyone gets it wrong. If you put money into Bonfire and it crashed, you lose massive quantities of cash, especially if you have a playset, two, three. By the same token that we aren’t perfect, however, we’re also not stupid- you least of all. If you read this site and bought into something as big as Bonfire, it’s because you believe in it, and probably because many of us believed in it too. It didn’t drop, and anything that generically powerful wasn’t likely to. What if it just didn’t gain as much as you wanted? What if Hellkite went to 30 and stopped?

This isn’t out of the question. In fact, most savvy guesses regarding the future of a given card don’t involve explosions in price, but rather a noticeable increase with room for profit but not necessarily a doubling of money.

Biggest Isn't Always Best

If, instead of buying into Bonfires when you saw them angling towards a million dollars right before states you put that money into other stock, what would happen? Having 50 per card invested in a playset might make sense if you can guarantee the upswing, but I find it better to put my money into a variety of things I have a lot of faith in. Perhaps I miss out on the more mind-boggling price swings of cards, but only because I’m covering my bases- I even had Bonfires at one point. But I sure as hell didn’t have 8, and I didn’t feel the need to go so deep on a card that wasn’t a guaranteed win, for all the hype it was getting.

When I started becoming interested in investing in general, I wanted to be that guy who picked out a stock and Blammo! Made it rich. Turns out that’s not how the stock market works, and it’s incredibly dangerous to overexpose yourself to one particular asset. I was taught to put specifically controlled amounts of my account into several different stocks I felt comfortable with- if they went up, great, but what I was dealing in was consistency. These stocks weren’t the splashy ones that could make me for life or shatter my hopes of graduate school forever, these were the ones that wouldn’t lose. They were the fetchlands of the stock market, and I got a nice spread.

You can invest in your Hellkites, your Bonfires, your Jaces, and you could have some good stories- but you’ll also be setting yourself up for crippling failure. Why not move into a diverse collection of lower priced cards with more places to go, and know that regardless of how the market turns you’ll be ready. By buying into cards that would be good in a control meta, an aggressive meta, a board lock meta, you set yourself up for success regardless of what WoTC prints next.

Unplayed Cards Can't be Played Less

Another thing to keep in mind- while Bonfire did go up from the 20 it was at originally (a LONG time ago), where is it now? The more flashy a card is, the more room it has to fall. If you pick cards you like that are seeing very little play but still have solid prices, what’s the worst that could happen? Obviously the market for them is being supported in some way or the price wouldn’t be up, so if you anticipate the card being played and you fail, you’re no worse off than you were before. Bonfire, on the other hand, was a speculation target when it was already seeing a lot of play. In the face of meta changes it was just as likely the card would be played less as it would be played more, so there was danger in the pickup. Lucky for investors this didn’t turn out so bad for them, but just because it went your way once doesn’t mean it will again. Diversify, gentlemen, and be careful about it.

 

Thanks to Sigmund, I had torturous writer’s block until I read his article, and without it I would not have a coherent thought for this piece or the next. As always, if you have any questions comments or snide remarks, I look forward to your comments!

 

-Tucker

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Tucker McGownd

Hi, I'm Tucker McGownd. I'm a low risk trader that spends most of my time in Minnesota, where I go to school, play magic, study for school, play Ultimate for my college team, study for school, and read. I've been playing for a long, long time (I first played during Mercadian Masques block, and first bought a pack in Urza's Saga). I was incredibly lucky when I cracked packs until I learned how much cards were worth, at which point I proceeded to open Thoughtlace in every set until Scars, where I picked up more than my fair share of molten psyche. I'm currently looking forward to the inevitable reprint of Chimney Imp.

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Jason’s Archives: Phoned for the Holidays 2: Phone Harder

Posted on by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Apparently I set the bar pretty low last week so those of you who are expecting a worse article out of me are going to go away disappointed.

See what I did there? I referenced the opening for my article last week, but changed a few words around to make it different because... you don't care at all, do you?

There is just no winning with you people.

Phoned in Intro 2: Electric Boogaloo

I won't spend forever in the editorial portion of the column today since I am surrounded by family members who insist on spending New Year's Eve with me. There is one thing, however, I have been harping on lately and I just want to mention here because you can't stop me.

Readers of the forums (I swear it's supposed to be "fora" but maybe not) will potentially be aware of the fact that there is a subreddit on mtgfinance that went up in the last week. There is a brief bit of exposition to slog through and then you'll be up to speed.

One time someone asked a question on reddit about MTG finance. After getting really frustrated with everyone's clueless answers I posted, "There should really be an MTG Finance subreddit." Three hours later a redditor named "Dingareth" messaged me linking me to a newly-created subreddit at this address and mentioned now all we need are subscribers.

There. You're up to speed.

Building the subreddit itself turned out to be the easy part. (In fact, all I did was tell someone else to make one.) But apparently the whole "they will come" aspect applies more in the case of ghosts and baseball fields than in the case of Magic subreddits and finance peeps. Please, if you're a redditor, subscribe to the subreddit and put up your favorite MTG Finance content and contribute to the discussions. If you're not a redditor, stop being not a redditor. It's free to sign up and it will only take up three or four hours a day. You can sleep when you're dead.

The more places online we can start discussions about finance to educate the larger community (many of whom have misconceptions about what we do as speculators), the better. Please, check out the subreddit, subscribe, discuss, post. While I'm at it, there are decent discussions going on in the QS forums as well -- Insiders, if you're not checking them every day, you're doing it wrong.

One Last Thing Before I Quit

There weren't really any events to speak of during the holidays, but there was some spoiler action. I'm not going to put too much of that stuff in my article. What I will point out is that Sigmund and I are back for more spoiler analysis, joined this set by Gervaise Pechler. The full spoiler page is accesible from QS' frontpage and I recommend checking it out. You can get the spoiled cards anywhere, but I feel like the analysis has value and since I have a pathological inability to either gracefully accept compliments or be wounded by criticism, I genuinely welcome feedback. A dialogue about new cards is always more valuable than blindly following one person's analysis, even if that person is a pro.

This spoiler season I'm trying something different. I pre-ordered very few cards from Return to Ravnica, which led to a high degree of success compared to what the shotgun approach might have gotten me. (I only bought Angel of Serenity, at $8, and managed to out all of them at their peak.) I could easily have missed out like all those people who preordered Lotleth Troll at $18.

Preorder prices may be ridiculously high ($30 for Time Reversal and Skaab Ruinator, anyone?) or ridiculously low ($6 for Thragtusk?) In short, volatile and hard to predict. In light of this, I decided to refine my approach.

A much safer bet are the old cards expected to interact positively with new cards and/or mechanics. These cards already have an established price floor, so even if they don't materialize as playable you'll be able to sell for around what you paid. There will also be more copies of the card laying around since its been opened for weeks or months, so you can go much deeper without having to preorder from multiple sources.

I still plan to buy as much sealed product as always, but my singles specs will all be older cards. They spoil an angel that helixes something when you trigger battalion but you're not sure if it will be any good? Don't preorder the angel, then! Regardless of how good Firemane Avenger is in a vacuum, the battalion mechanic is likely to change how people attack with red and white creatures. So Hellrider gets better and Sublime Archangel gets worse.

Not sure if the new card with the Dimir mechanic is good on its own? Don't buy any! I'm not! I'm sure as heck stocking up on Invisible Stalker, though. Stalker isn't likely to drop below its current value between now and the fourth week of Gatecrash's legality. Even if everyone who agrees with my logic is wrong, by the time the meta rules out Stalker as a good cipher enabler (or doesn't) their money is already in my pocket, ready to be spent on drugs and spray paint.

This lower-risk strategy will make me more confident about my specs come Gatecrash release weekend, and I'll keep everyone posted on how the experiment pans out.

Have a Happy New Year

It's likely 2013 by the time you read this. My personal resolution is two-fold:

1) Write every day

2) Don't write everyday

I hope you'll agree my contribution to the Magic community in the past nine months or so since I joined QS has been better than the everyday contribution and you'll continue to support and follow me into 2013. I look forward to sharing more with you in the coming year, and I hope everyone learned as much as they could from 2012.

-Jason Alt

Insider: Psychology and Selling Modern Staples

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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This year I have the pleasure (random chance) of being the last Insider article published on Quiet Speculation of 2012. Sitting in front of my computer, I thought about all the clever New Years’ themed articles I could write about. Resolutions, changes, saying bye to the old and hello to the new, etc. But you know what? Those are a little overdone.

What’s more, I have two important topics I want to discuss this week. The first is somewhat time-sensitive, so I do not want to wait even a week to bring it up. The second is not time sensitive in the realm of Magic, but the topic came to me while reading a book. I want to make sure I share my observations while the book is still fresh in my mind.

My Difficult Modern Decision

For some reason I had my mind fixated upon the New Year as the commencement of Modern season. I figured I had this whole past week to get some last minute Modern specs such as Inkmoth Nexus and Mox Opal. I was wrong.

Granted, these two specific cards are still fairly available – Robots is not as prevalent a deck as Jund. But the “Modern spike”, as I’ll call it, has already happened, concurrently with the true beginning of Modern season, which took place over a week ago. Many Jund staples have already jumped significantly in price – so rapidly that I cannot even use Black Lotus Project to illustrate the movement. That site just hasn’t caught up enough.

But I have two very personal data points I can share based on a difficult decision I made. Following the rationale that Modern Masters will bring reprints, Wizards of the Coast wants to keep Modern affordable, and this is the last Modern season before Modern Masters, I decided to sell three of my personal playsets. Two listings have already sold:

The other listing is still there as of Saturday morning, with one watcher. It is also the only Buy it Now listing for a set of Dark Confidants.

These cards are auctioning on eBay very close to retail. In fact, Star City Games currently has Tarmogoyf listed for $99.99, though they are sold out.

The decision to sell these cards was a difficult one. I’ve had them in my possession for roughly three years, and the Tarmogoyfs in particular have additional emotional ties. BUT these Magic Cards are not unique. I will have an opportunity to acquire them again, and because of the current price spike and impending price drop from Modern Masters, I decided it was time to move these. When Modern season is over and everyone speculates on what will be reprinted, I should have an opportunity to buy these again – at a reasonably lower cost.

I wanted to share this decision with my readers so that they could evaluate similar decisions for themselves. Jund is the most popular deck in Modern right now – this won’t last forever. We already know with certainty that Tarmogoyf will be in Modern Masters, and I am predicting Thoughtseize and Dark Confidant will also make an appearance. It is the perfect storm to unload these cards now at their peak prices, with a likely opportunity for re-entry in six months. This shouldn’t be a surprise – we all know these cards are at a peak right now. Logic has overtaken emotion for me, and I’m moving these expensive cards at their peak.

Aside: Everyone should have already noticed this, but be alert that Verdant Catacombs has transcended as the most valuable non-blue Zendikar Fetch Land. A couple weeks ago, people were indifferent to which Fetch Lands I traded them. They valued non-blue fetches at $17 in trade across the board. Should you be presented with this option, I’d keep the Verdant Catacombs if I were you. Star City Games agrees with this price discrepancy, by the way – they are charging $24.99 on Catacombs now while still only $19.99 on Arid Mesa and Marsh Flats.

Sunk Costs, Outside View, and other Psychology Tidbits

Part of my motivation to overcome any emotional ties to my expensive Modern cards stemmed partially from the book I just finished: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. The book describes in detail how humans often make decisions that deviate from the “rational econ.” Sometimes logic would dictate one course of action, but human brains are wired to choose an alternative.

Consider this simple example: Would you rather have a 90% chance of winning $100 or a 100% chance of winning $85? Most people including myself are risk averse when dealing with upside, and so we choose the sure gain. The gamble has a higher utility, which can be calculated as the sum of the product of probabilities and outcomes (i.e. $100 * 90% + $0 * 10% = $90). Since humans prefer to lock in gains vs. gamble, they are prone to choose the risk-averse option.

Now consider a different example: Would you rather have a 90% chance of losing $100 or a 100% chance of losing $85? In this case, many people are inclined to take the gamble. They figure losing $85 for sure is terrible and with the gamble they may actually be able to avoid losses altogether. When dealing in losses, people tend to be more risk-seeking. This observation is a part of prospect theory, which shifts utility curves away from straight lines and towards a curve. Notice how the gains slope near the origin is much smaller than the losses slope near the origin. We are much more sensitive to losses than gains when it comes to perceived value.

These concepts can be applied to the realm of Magic speculation. As an example, consider the 8 copies of Aluren I purchased a few weeks ago. By the time my order from ABU games arrived, the card’s value had doubled. I was sitting on a nice profit and I was faced with a choice – sit on these cards with the hopes they rise further, perhaps due to a breakout in Legacy, or sell the cards to buy lists for a modest profit. Being risk averse, I decided to take the sure profit instead of the gamble. This worked out favorably, in my opinion, even though I could have potentially gained more by taking the risk of holding these cards.

But another example may not have turned out so profitably had I followed the observations of Kahneman. When I bought 20 Nivmagus Elementals, I already knew I had struck out on this spec by the time the cards arrived. So I was faced with a decision: take a sure loss of $10 by selling these right away or hold them for a 10% chance these can net me a negligible profit (with 90% chance these drop even further, leading to greater losses).

In this case, humans often default to the risk-seeking option. This is why when we have a speculation that doesn’t pan out, we are so eager to hold. Not only do we not want to admit failure, but we also want to hold out for that tiny percentage likelihood the card does take off. In the meantime, we are accruing more losses as our [card]Nivmagus Elemental[/cards]-like cards slowly approach bulk rare status (chart from mtgstocks.com).

The moral of this observation: I find I benefit most when I sell. I have an appreciation for locking in gains and remaining risk averse in these scenarios. But when sitting on a speculative play that didn’t play out well, I would still prefer to cut losses and sell even though the human mind is more inclined to be risk-seeking in this scenario. Rather than sinking more costs into an unsuccessful speculation by holding longer, it can be better to simply cut losses and sell right away.

To help take an objective view of a situation like this, Kahneman recommends taking an “Outside View” of the situation. Such a view can help combat the emotions involved in speculation. The procedure is elegantly simple (though I’m not sure how easy it would be to implement in practice).

  • First, consider base rates: identify the statistical likelihood a speculative play can pay out based on similar scenarios.
  • Second, evaluate how different this particular instance is from the base case.
  • Third and finally, shift your prediction from the base case an appropriate amount.

This practice can be applied with 20-20 accuracy to the Nivmagus Elemental speculation.

  • Step 1: identify that some creative deck ideas do not pan out and some do.
  • Step 2: identify how much better Nivmagus Elemental is than the average new tech. In this case, the strategy is really no better than Goblin Charbelcher strategies in Legacy – they are glass cannons.
  • Step 3: would have led me to the conclusion this card was not going to be a long-term viable strategy in Modern due to its vulnerabilities to the most prevalent Modern strategy.

Thus, I should not have bought into this speculation so heavily.

Selling into Modern Hype

Based on my risk adversity, I have decided to sell my top three Modern staples. I feel I should be able to net a profit when Modern season ends and prices settle down due to Modern Masters release. Therefore I have decided that the economic approach would be to sell now and ignore emotional attachment. I was ultimately able to overcome emotions because my nature is to be risk averse when dealing with profits, as suggested by Kahneman.

I’m not saying this decision is best for everyone. Since I play Melira-Pod in Modern I don’t need any of these three cards anyway. If you plan on playing Jund this PTQ season, you really don’t have the same option I have. But if you have any copies of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Thoughtseize or other Jund staples you aren’t using, I would suggest selling here and now.

…

Sigbits – Modern Jund edition

  • Inquisition of Kozilek is sold out at Star City Games with a price tag of $5.99. Last week these traded at FNM at $6 – I should have kept mine. Fortunately I picked up a set on eBay because I think these will be $8 on SCG next. Since these won’t be in Modern Masters I, there is less urgency to sell these this Modern season. That being said, these will pull back when Modern PTQ season ends – use your own risk adversity / affinity algorithm to decide if you should sell here or hold.
  • Most people know about Deathrite Shaman’s recent rally. SCG has them at $11.99 and they readily sell for over $9 on eBay. But did you know that foil copies have exploded? SCG is sold out of foil Deathrite Shamans at $49.99, and eBay has been ending in the mid-to-high $30’s. If you can get these in trade at that price, I’d be on board with acquiring. But when Modern season ends, these should temper a little bit.
  • Speaking of foils, I am quite bullish on foil Abrupt Decay. These are also played in Modern Jund and they are currently out of stock at Star City Games with a price tag of $24.99. While these are not as ubiquitous as Deathrite Shaman, I can easily see this foil hit $29.99 when restocked. A few copies can still be found under $20, and it may not be a terrible mid-term investment to sit on a few.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Gatecrash Spoilers are Here – Early Winners

Posted on by mathieu malecot

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With Firemane Avenger getting spoiled, several cards look like much better speculation targets heading into February. The ability to deal 3 damage ahead of blockers being declared will make First Strike and Haste mechanics much more valuable and both Red and White offer tempting targets for players and speculators alike.

Too Many Two's?

Ash Zealot is a nice way to capture both mechanics with some bonus utility. TCG prices have been rising but Ebay proves deals can still be had on this 2cc drop. Plowing through 5 toughness thanks to Battalion triggers will likely make this hasty card a 4-of in any deck looking to abuse the new Boros mechanic.

White offers three interesting targets with First Strike that will also compete for a crowded 2cc spot. Elite Inquisitor will at least find a home in sideboards considering its protection versus playable creature types. This card could easily double and with Ebay again offering a low entry price for speculators, the Inquisitor certainly merits consideration.

Precinct Captain offers an interesting design choice for deck construction. Combat damage putting creatures into play would allow a Boros pilot to remain aggressive and keep Battalion active. The Captain offers another low entry point for investors that could easily lead to 100% returns.

Thalia could see some play in future Boros deck but as a speculation target, I don't see a lot of room for her to run. Pricing out over 5$ on TCG and holding near $5 on Ebay make this a trade target at best. Coming out of the unpopular Dark Ascension, and relatively strong Ebay pricing  are positive catalysts so I won't be looking to trade off my copies just in case she does see a spike in price around release.

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight is another card that might draw interest as her abilities play nice with the Boros mechanic. Unfortunately she too is priced out of my comfort zone. I would always be open for acquiring copies in trade on the cheap but unless I'm picking up copies for under $3, I'll be spending my money elsewhere.

Going Big

My favorite 5cc Red card for Boros is NOT a thundering hellkite! Instead, I'm looking at Zealous Conscripts. It enables Battalion with a player only controlling one Firemane Avenger before it's cast, offers a very versatile solution to many on the board problems and is the perfect Restoration Angel target. Both Restoration Angel and the Conscripts are a nice way to play into the new Boros mechanic. Conscript playsets are still cheap enough to offer another 100% return opportunity to nimble traders.

Restoration Angel is a solid investment for any MtG speculator. It draws enough attention to your binder to be worth the investment cost and strong Ebay pricing relative to TCG prices suggests demand side pressure. While I do think it's unlikely this Angel gets to $25, this card could easily push $18 in the next three months.

While considering future Boros deck lists and trying to guess what fills the 1cc slot, two Red cards come to mind. The first offers Resto another target: Vexing Devil. This card remains popular in spite of the perception that giving opponents choices is universally bad magic. Like Restoration Angel the Devil will draw players to your binder but unless you can pick them up for less than $4.50 it's hard to pull the trigger. Trading for TCG prices might make sense to establish a position but if you have a speculation inventory already adding through trades that value the Devil for more than $5 is risky.

Why am I so bearish on a card that has already proved so many naysayers wrong? I like the value proposition Stromkirk Noble offers much more. Here we have a card that is already selling on Ebay for slightly more than TCG prices. Like Restoration Angel and Thalia before it, there seems to be some unrecognized demand for the card. Unlike those cards, Stromkirk is not as high profile a card and makes a good throw-in target while trading. Under $3 could easily yield 66% returns should the card get to $5. I could see this card competing on price as well as for a spot in Boros decklists with Vexing Devil.

The Jackpot

Finally, with Clifftop Retreat going for $10 one of the more obvious Boros plays is no where near a safe speculation. Thankfully, players and speculators alike are overlooking Bonfire of the Damned. Recent Avacyn Restored price weakness makes picking this miracle up for $25 or less a real possibility. The card should easily hit thirty dollars, but it's ceiling is much higher. I like Bonfire to test $40 as it is the perfect mana sink for aggressive Red decks today and likely to remain the miracle of choice for any future Boros deck lists.

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mathieu malecot

Mathieu is a daily trader of options/stocks, selling both bearish and bullish options. Lead wrangler of "The Kitten Ranch", as in lives and works at home with two annoying and cute (annoyingly cute?) cats. Ranch motto: "Always Feline Awesome". Playing magic since beta/ high school. Casual player and regular participant in FNM drafts.

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Insider: New Year’s Resolutions

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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It's that time of year where people take stock of their lives and make resolutions about how to improve over the coming year. Your fearless Modo speculator is here with a few resolutions of his own.

Be Prepared to Hold onto Tix

When I have tix in my account, I feel compelled to invest them quickly. Having them just sit there feels like an opportunity wasted. But sometimes you have to save your bullets, as often there are only marginal opportunities available, while better opportunities are just around the corner.

Case in point, after capitalizing on a few nice Modern season specs last year, I was looking for the next trade and I had a bunch of tix burning a hole in my pocket. I dumped some into junkish Innistrad mythic rares, with the idea that the powerful Delver decks running around in Standard were suppressing the potential of these cards.

I confidently picked up Angelic Overseer, Skaab Ruinator, and Grimgrin, Corpse Born, all in the 1.5 to 2.5 tix range. I've done very well buying junkish mythics due to the nature of redemption and I felt that these cards would at least be profitable because of that. If they took off in a Constructed format, all the better.

In the end, none of these cards have taken off in Standard. That isn't a problem in and of itself, as not every spec works out. But the mistake I made here was rushing to re-invest my available tix, which resulted in buying too soon.

In January of last year, with the release of Dark Ascension just around the corner, supply of these cards was about to take a big jump and continued drafting of DII meant that I had ignored the fundamental direction of the market. Supply was large and increasing. In order for my spec to work I was relying on the possibility of a Constructed breakout and fighting the market forces of increasing supply.

Fighting the direction of the market while making a low-percentage bet was a poor decision. I would have been much better off sitting on my tix instead. When making a bet on a junkish mythic rare breaking out in Standard, I don't have any extra information or expert knowledge than anyone else. There is no advantage there. I also can't rely on being quicker than everyone else if a card does break out and sees prices increases.

Therefore, the only consistent advantage I have is to work with the underlying market forces. If I had waited on these risky specs, predictably I would have seen much lower prices in the months after DKA's release, an essentially no-risk position due to redemption. Instead, I was stuck with these cards in my portfolio for almost a year as only recently have I been able to sell them at a break-even rate.

Resolve to be more patient and don't go a speculative binge just because there are tix piling up in my account.

Don't Overthink Things

Sometimes I feel like speculators are trying to be too clever by half. There are tried-and-true principles for speculating on MTGO that are consistently profitable year to year. Easily the best time to buy cards for speculation is in the Fall, from the block that just rotated out of Standard.

Although I had loaded up on mythics from Scars block this past year, I didn't push hard on cards like Spellskite and Birthing Pod. Both are from New Phyrexia, a 3rd set. Both were available in the 1 to 2 tix range in October. Spellskite is playable in many different decks and Birthing Pod powers up its own archetype in Modern. Both have seen prices as high as 10 tix while in Standard, giving a good upper target on a price ceiling. Both were slam-dunk investments that checked off all the best criteria for speculating.

In the end, I only bought a handful of each. I spent much more more time and energy on picking up the fast lands than I did on these cards. In the long run, I know every investment in Scars block I made in the Fall will work out, but somehow I ended up overlooking those two. If I had bought one Birthing Pod instead of four Darkslick Shores, it would have yielded a much higher short-term profit and taken far less work.

Resolve to not overthink speculating and to stick to the best investing principles rather than seek out marginal strategies or positions.

No More "Sick Brags"

When starting out in speculating, it can be very gratifying to make your first couple of profitable trades. It's only natural to want to share with people your good fortune and speculating acumen. And I do encourage people to seek validation in this way, at least early on. However, at a certain point, a continued need for external validation can be detrimental to a speculator because it keeps the focus on what has gone right instead of what has gone wrong.

Trades where things work out to the upside are difficult to learn from. It's the trades that didn't pan out that have a lesson behind them. Talking about one's best trades and making "sick brags" allows one to feel good about what happened and to avoid taking a hard look at mistakes made.

Resolve to put this habit on the back burner. It's tacky thing to do, it only serves to make me feel better, and it gets in the way of improving my game.

Merry Christmas, and I hope you enjoy a prosperous New Year.

Pauper Cube Updates: Google Doc Edition

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

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On Christmas morning I finally sat down and got Pauper Cube ported onto Google Docs. Take a look!

Pauper Cube

I’ve made quite a lot of changes from the original list, but very few of them have been on a fundamental level. As I’ve played more and more I’ve been working on cutting cards that require support to be playable. For example, Grave Scrabbler was in the original list as it’s really sweet in the Tortured Existence, but it’s pretty much trash most of time otherwise.

The most major changes that I’ve made have been to the color black. I initially had infect in both green and black, but all of the black creatures with infect just weren’t that impressive. Additionally, drafting a deck completely dedicated to infect in a 540 card Cube is no easy task. None of the black infect creatures passed the test of being good enough as singular cards, so they were pretty easy to cut. This freed up some spaces for the cards that would be good in a very aggressive black deck, which is a deck that hasn’t been popular thus far. I’m the only person that has yet drafted a red/black aggressive deck and I have only done so once. I did manage to 4-1(because best of seven is the only way to play) QuietSpeculation’s own Tyler Tyssedal (self-confessed Ryan Overturf kryptonite) though, so interpret that as you will.

I can’t say enough good things about my experience with Pauper Cube thus far. I’ve seen a lot of MODO-photos with regard to Holiday Cube recently, and I know that a lot of people enjoy Powered Cube, but for my money I’d play a grindy attrition match over two turn games any day of the week. If you’re into opening packs where some cards are Goblin Guide and others are Ancestral Recall then more power to you. I’m personally more into a much tighter power band.

Speaking of attrition and tight things, check out this four color deck I Winstoned the other day:

Four Color Value

spells

lands

6 Forest
5 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains

Having Mnemonic Wall, Peel from Reality and Remember the Fallen is pretty insane. Mnemonic Wall and Remember the Fallen are two of the most powerful cards in the Cube, which I think is really awesome.

As of now there are very few cards that I think might be too powerful for the Cube. For the most part I only have my eye on Maul Splicer and Seraph Angel. Both are very capable of single-handedly winning games if unanswered. They haven’t been cut yet as I feel like the answers to them are sufficient, but I’ve definitely seen games where Seraph Angel was pretty close to unbeatable.

As of yet nobody has played Temporal Fissure for more than two copies but Grapeshot and Empty the Warrens have both stormed for five. The cards don’t always show up but I’ve had a lot of decks that would have been very capable of abusing any of the Storm cards, which is where I believe I want the deck to be. Every time Empty the Warrens shows up somebody should be able to consistently cast it for 3+ copies.

That’s all I really have for this week. That spreadsheet took a pretty decent chunk of time and I feel that much of the list speaks for itself. That said I’m more than happy to answer any questions and entertain any suggestions. Know any cool commons that I missed? Let me know!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Out for the Holidays

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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Editor's Note: As Corbin is out for the holidays, we're running one of his articles from earlier this year. While the predictions may be dated, it's still full of relevant information on one of the more fundamental topics in MTG finance, real estate. Enjoy.

Return to Ravnica spoilers are everywhere now, and I want to get this out of the way up front. I think Zombies are insane.

It looks 100% to be the best deck going forward, and that has many implications. To give you an idea of the deck’s power level, here’s a scenario. I’m testing against Jund-colored Zombies (and probably not even the strongest build) with a deck designed to crush Zombies. To give you an idea, I’m running the “Living End” deck of Innistrad block, where you cast a bunch of value Humans to survive the early turns and eventually get an Angel of Glorys Rise into play.

That means I’m playing cards to survive, like [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card], Fiend Hunter, Doomed Traveler; even stuff like Cathedral Sanctifier because it’s all about getting to an Angel. I’m running 4 Faithless Looting, 4 Angels and 4 Unburial Rites to make it happen before Turn 7. To add on this, I thought playing three copies of Riders of Gavony would be good in the upcoming meta and solidify the Zombies matchup.

On paper, I should pretty much never lose to Zombies. So what happened? I lost, 4-3, in the seven games we played. That’s including sideboarded games where I’m bringing in EVEN MORE hate. Cards like Elite Inquisitor! That’s how powerful the Zombies deck is.

But it’s not what we’re here to talk about today.

Flip That House

Real Estate is up all over the place these days, and I want to talk about the two relevant cycles we care about – Innistrad lands and Shocklands. Let’s start with the former.

Uh, remember what I said about how good Zombies, and specifically the Plant variety, are? BLP is a bit of a lagging indicator, and in reality the Cemetery is up to $11 on TCGPlayer.

What does this mean going forward? I think you can probably pick up Cemeteries for the next week or two at decent prices before everyone catches on to the spike, but I really can’t see it holding more than $12-14 long-term; there were just too many opened. That said, Zombies are a real thing, and stocking up on both the good Zombie cards (and lands) is a good move; if you want to go deeper you can look for the cards that hurt Zombies.

So we know about the Cemetery. What about the other ones?

Hopefully you’ve been taking the advice we’ve been giving for months and months on this site and stocked up on all the Innistrad lands, but if not there are still some opportunities.

Isolated Chapel is right behind Cemetery in terms of price, holding steady at $10, where it’s been for awhile. Interestingly, Sulfur Falls is the only one of the Return to Ravnica-colored Guilds that is low. While Izzet as a Guild doesn’t look overwhelming, the color combination will likely stick around in Control decks as the format matures, and that makes it more attractive.

Now, we get to the ones I’m more excited about. Specifically, Clifftop Retreat and Hinterland Harbor. Prices on both of these have come up as well, but they are going to be more undervalued on the trade floor than the other ones.

Why is this? On the simplest level, it’s because the Guilds for those two colors aren’t out yet. I expect Boros to be incredibly popular when it comes out, so Clifftop Retreat is my No. 1 target as far as Innistrad lands go. I’m excited for Simic, but I don’t think it will be as popular as Boros, which already has so many pieces in the Human cards from Innistrad. A U/G combination, on the other hand, isn’t as readily apparent. It’s still a good move to pick these up.

While people are going nuts over Woodland Cemeteries, I’m going to be stocking up on the other Innistrad lands and wait for their day in the sun.

Medium-term I see all the lands holding value upwards of $7, with spikes up to $13-14 for the most popular ones. It’s not quite as high as the Scars Fastlands reached, but the addition of Shocklands makes these Duals better, not worse.

Shocklands

Here’s the big question on everyone’s minds. Shocklands are already priced highly, and they’re going to be needed in such a variety of formats, how are they not a great pickup at $10?

Here’s the thing. If SCG is pre-selling the most highly-anticipated cycle in the Block at $10 (where 3/5 are), you shouldn’t be buying. Yes, the Shocks are great. Yes, they’re played everywhere.

But this isn’t the first time the above statements were true. Let’s look at the last time this happened.

Super high starting prices, and then a solid baseline of $8-10 for many months after that, until the creation of Modern spiked the price again. Arguably, fetches are in even more demand than Shocklands, since you don’t always run 4x of a particular Shock in Modern and you don’t even use them in Legacy. So if Blue fetches can’t break $10 during their Standard run, can Shocks?

The answer is no. Given the discrepancy between Ebay (BLP prices) and retail, I think this would seem to suggest Shocks would be in the $10-15 range retail.

All Is Not As It Seems

But that’s not all there is to the story. Not even close.

Let’s start with the more obvious difference. Shocklands are reprints. While there aren’t exactly infinite copies of the originals running around, there are enough to make a difference. With this in mind we would lower our original prediction by probably 25-30%. That means we’d be looking at a retail price of $7-11.

But again, there’s more we need to look at, in particular with our comparisons to fetchlands.

Zendikar was opened three at a time for three months for drafting purposes. It was then opened two at a time for three months for drafting purposes. Then it wasn’t drafted at all.

Now let’s look at at Return to Ravnica. It is going to be opened thee at a time for three months for drafting purposes. Then it won’t be opened at all for three months. Then it will be opened one at a time for three months. Same is true for Gatecrash.

By my math, that’s three months where we are opening one less individual Shockland pack than Fetchland pack. It’s not enough of a reduction in demand to offset the realities of reprinting, but it will help prices hold some.

It is by considering all of this information that I’ve come to my own personal conclusion on the price of Shocks – that they’ll have a baseline of $7-8, with the most popular ones spiking to $12-13.

I understand this isn’t exactly a groundbreaking prediction, but I think an analysis of all the factors we have to consider is something worth detailing. Knowledge is power, and it’s by using metrics like this that I come up with my predictions, rather than simply “going with my gut.” Lots of times, those who are making predictions are mentally accounting for these factors in their heads, even if they can’t articulate them, so I hope my spelling it out was helpful.

Also, if you have a chance I think you should trade New Shocks for Old Shocks straight-up. It remains to be seen if the new art is enough of an improvement (if at all) to push the price of New Shocks past old ones, but I doubt it does. However, I do think you’re going to find people who are willing to trade straight across, and this nets you a few dollars every time you do it, based on current prices.

I hope you’re all as excited about the set as I am!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter 

Jason’s Archives: Phoned for the Holidays

Posted on by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Apparently I set the bar pretty high with my article last week, so if you were looking forward to me beating the odds and coming up with something even better, you're going to leave disappointed. I am on vacation for the holidays and even though the QS management team said they'd understand if we didn't post an article this week, I feel compelled to write something.

I won't be using this space to editorialize like I always do (I'll be back to my same old tricks next week, however) but I will provide some tidbits about the GP and two newly spoiled cards. That should give you something to read on your phone while locked away in your bedroom to get away from your relatives for even half an hour because for the love of God there is a reason you don't see those people all year.

This won't be my typical screed, but it won't be a blank space either. You readers were nice this year, so you deserve a little something in your stockings. I present to you "Jason's Archives: Phoned-in Edition."

More Gatecrash Spoilers

I was a good boy this year. Twelve months ago I lost my job and spent an entire year value trading at GPs, flipping collections, writing and speculating. While I made money at it, I decided to be responsible and get a real job again even if it cuts into speculating time this year (unless I sacrifice sleeping, something I haven't ruled out yet). In my articles on this site and Gathering Magic, I tried to bring the community together and encouraged everyone to use social media more effectively to improve as players and speculators. I tried my best to be a good ambassador for the finance community and made some real headway.

Since I was a good boy, I was really enthusiastic when I learned about a Simic card "accidentally" inserted in a booster pack and opened at a draft.

Son of a...

So it looks like evolve is similar to graft -- great for Vorthos fans and a bitter disappointment for those of us who wanted Simic to be a real guild and merfolk to be competitive. Fluxmage seems durdly, overcosted, inconsistent and generally less than the good little boys and girls from guild Simic were hoping for.


 

Seriously?

Ugh. A bad Lorescale Coatl, but printed at rare. At least Lorescale got a counter every turn. If you were relying on your four-mana 1/1 without hexproof or shroud to draw you cards, you may be disappointed to find it long dead by the time you can cast another creature.

It's possible that other evolve creatures will be efficient beaters less prone to durdling. Of course an ever-growing beatstick certainly lends itself to the green slice of the color pie, which means Naya could benefit more than Bant. It's all conjecture at this point, but in light of the two "flagship" cards Wizards saw fit to spoil, I'm not holding out much hope for the tape deck.

I'd love for you to tell my why I'm wrong. Hit me up in the comments, the forums (fora?), on Twitter, Facebook or e-mail. I'd love to be wrong about this.

Another Event in Indianapolis? Has It Been Two Weeks Already?

Despite having a brother I don't mind visiting who lives fewer than four hours from the Indianapolis Convention Center, I had to miss this GP. Said brother is visiting relatives with me and I couldn't skip Christmas so here I am hearing about the GP second hand.

While I have a habit of not mentioning Limited Grands Prix, the coverage is worth reading if only because the top eight was stacked.

GP Indianapolis Top 8

I couldn't find any published decklists from other events so if you haven't read up on the GP coverage, go ahead. It's well worth it.

"Deck" The Halls

Yeah, you like that? You like that pun? I got puns for days.

Still worth more than Search the City.

Jerein from Reddit said his girlfriend (yea, like we believe Magic players have those) made these festive ornaments to ring in the Yuletide. Is that an idiom? "Ring in the Yuletide?" It is now. I haven't been linking much stuff from Reddit lately but these were too good not to share. Jerein says his girlfriend tolerates him playing Magic, and he wants to win her over with these. Could work! Christmas ornaments are well documented "gateway decorations" and if he plays his cards right, maybe there is a mox in her future. God luck, Jerein!

Go Spend Some Time with Your Family or Friends

That's enough of being antisocial. Go have a beer with your Dad, eat some cookies or show your cousin's hot friend your new mistletoe belt buckle. Whether you're a Christian, Jew, Muslim ... whatever group of people celebrates Kwanzaa, or an annoying militant atheist who refuses to celebrate Christmas despite it being awesome, this is the happiest time of the year for most people. Enjoy the time you have with your family and I hope the New Year finds you happy and healthy.

Happy Holidays and join me on this space in the coming year.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Free, Gatecrash, Spoiler, Web ReviewTagged 1 Comment on Jason’s Archives: Phoned for the Holidays

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Insider: Stocking Stuffers

Posted on by Paul Feudo

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Shardless Agent is $8-10 on ebay after getting the GerryT treatment. GP Denver will give us a better idea where this card is headed though barring a reprint the long-term looks very good, remember Baleful Strix was near $15 when it was hot so there is still room to grow here even in the short-term. Note, retailers have overreacted to the spike and I don't recommend trading for this at its current price ($16 TCG Mid) unless you're very bullish, though cash plays are reasonable.

When was the last time you saw a Venser, Shaper Savant in a binder? If it was recently, go trade for it. I've seen dealers pay $7 on these in the past month and Troll and Toad is paying $6, considering the card is only $8 TCG Mid those numbers are fantastic. I'm not entirely sure where the demand is coming from here, but in the short term I'm not sure it matters, if anyone can enlighten me in the comments I'd appreciate it.

A Surprising Rise

What happened to Serra Ascendant?

There was a post made on the forums about this card that made me double take, did you know this card was $6 TCG Mid? Obviously the initial spike has already happened, but I think there's still room to make money here. The rest of the various Martyr/Soul Sisters cards are fairly inexpensive and there is very real demand from super casuals and Commander players as well. I could see Serra Ascendant retailing around $12 and moving very easily at $8 cash during the Modern PTQ season.

Restoration Angel is up to $18 on SCG, which doesn't mean very much. These numbers, however illuminate the SCG price increase in a different light.


This makes sense, the card is everywhere in standard and considering the single colored mana in its casting cost I doubt that will be changing anytime soon. The TCG Mid price is not going to last, and I recommend trading for every last Restoration Angel you can find at that number, as it's going to be increasing sooner rather than later.

 

That 24% spread is pretty good in general, but its fantastic on a standard card that isn't seeing much play right now. Even using SCG's buy price, a 30% spread is nothing to sneeze at, especially if you get the card at any kind of a discount which is certainly possible considering no one wants them right now. Sigarda, Host of Herons is a dump, though picking up copies to flip to dealers is completely reasonable, I just wouldn't hold any if I could help it.

Something Adorable

Gatecrash previews for Christmas? Hurray! While I think the card itself is too expensive to be very good competitively (though its pretty funny with Increasing Savagery) I'm intrigued by the evolve mechanic. What about Corpsejack Menace in a deck full of evolve creatures? The ceiling is fairly low here, but you can get playsets for a dollar so the risk isn't very high either. Most of the demand will be Timmy driven but I don't think that hurts us much given the entry point.

~
$15 Jace, Architect of Thought are not going to last forever, pick up all the RTR goodness cheaply before Gatecrash makes everyone want to buy cards again. Similarly the first Modern PTQs are already starting, but there's still some time to make a play or two before the season gets in full swing (Inkmoth Nexus I'm looking at you). We're in a transitional period right now and its a buyer's market so be aggressive, happy holidays.

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