Is Magic Getting More Expensive?

Posted on April 7, 2023April 7, 2023 by David Schumann

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I was intrigued by a recent article from CBR.com, which claimed that Magic is getting more expensive. The article called out last year's Magic 30 product and collector boosters for the forthcoming The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth set as examples of an increasing onslaught of top-end products. While I am not a fan of all the high-end product releases that Wizards of the Coast is increasingly dumping into the market, I don't know if it's accurate to argue that this is actually making the game more expensive to the average player.

I decided to investigate this myself by examining the costs of decks for various constructed formats and comparing them to historical prices for decks in those formats. I did all this while trying to keep in mind what price control Wizards of the Coast actually has, if any, over the secondary market prices of their cards.

Format Price Comparison Methodology

I chose to limit the scope of my data pool to the two most popular sanctioned constructed formats: Standard, and Modern. I looked at these two formats specifically, rather than Magic's most popular format, Commander, for a few reasons. First, as sanctioned formats, decks for Standard and Modern are required to be composed of genuine Magic cards. Proxies of any kind, officially printed or not, are not allowed for sanctioned formats. This makes the prices of cards in these decks a legitimate factor, unlike in Commander, where a player can simply proxy up a copy of any card not within their means to own, and play it—barring any Rule 0 objections of course.

Second, the Standard and Modern formats both have long histories. Modern has been a sanctioned format since 2011. Standard has been a sanctioned format since almost the beginning of the game—originally called Type 2, as it was the second Magic format ever after Type 1, or what we now call Vintage.

because of their histories, there is plenty of historic pricing data we can look back on to compare the costs of decks for these formats, and determine if it's true or not that Magic is getting more expensive, or has gotten more expensive over time.

If current prices are the same or lower than in previous times then Magic is getting cheaper. If current prices are 15% higher or more than previous times then Magic is getting more expensive. I chose 15% because it is high enough that it would clearly discern a true deviation from previous prices, but is not so high that it would be untenable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thragtusk

Standard

One could easily make the argument that Standard is the format Wizards has the most control over. The cards are by default all the newest ones. Nothing is on the reserved list or anything like that. There's also historical precedent for Wizards injecting previously valuable cards into event decks (added to the Thrive and Thrash Gatecrash Deck) to help regulate prices. The fact that new Standard-legal cards enter the market all the time thanks to both Limited play and people just opening packs for fun, means that the supply is constantly growing. This is what we see if we look at the top decks in Standard according to MTGGoldfish's metagame breakdown:

Grixis Midrange - $411 (35% of which is due to running two copies of Sheoldred, the Apocalypse)
Monowhite Midrange -$293 (33% of which is due to four copies of The Wandering Emperor)
Monored Aggro - $107 (33% of which is for the three of Chandra, Dressed to Kills)
Esper Legends -$583 (50% of which is due to four of Sheoldred, the Apocalypse)

These four decks make up roughly 51% of the metagame with an average deck cost of $348.50. While $350 is still a fair amount of money, there have been multiple times in Standard's history that decks cost close to $1,000. Decks like Caw-Blade (Zendikar-Scars Block Standard) and 5-Color Goodstuff (Khans of Tarkir-Battle for Zendikar Standard) were easily $1100+ in their heyday.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

Mitigating Factors on Standard Prices

Now it is important to admit that for Standard, current prices have more factors affecting price than just card availability. Thanks to Magic: Arena, a lot of more casual players are likely shifting away from playing paper Magic to playing digital Magic. I have already dug into the pros and cons of Magic: Arena in a previous article. Suffice to say, it is my belief that Friday Night Magic and Weekly Booster Drafts have likely been, and continue to be, cannibalized by the monster that is Magic: Arena.

Unrelated to Arena, but equally as impactful, has been the dramatic drop in larger in-person events like Magic Fests/Grands Prix, Starcity Games Opens, and even Regional Qualifiers. This can be attributed partly to varying Pandemic-related restrictions on these types of mass gatherings by local governments.

The combination of the rise of Arena, and the decline in large in-person events, means there is less demand overall for paper cards. This is one factor that I believe is helping keep the average deck price down. Another factor that we must also consider is that the Standard format right now is quite varied. There is not one particular deck exerting a stranglehold over the format, thus driving the prices for its signature cards higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Modern

Modern is interesting for a number of reasons. Again, as in Standard, none of the cards are on the reserved list. In fact, Wizards has actually frequently reprinted some of the most in-demand ones. Despite this, Modern decks are still quite expensive compared to Standard. One very noticeable trend when looking at the top lists of the format is how many cards in the decks are from Modern Horizons 1 or Modern Horizons 2.

Izzet Murktide - $1038 tops the metagame with a 12.6% share. Almost 30% of the deck cost is in the four copies of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer a Modern Horizons 2 card.
5 Color Creativity - $1236 which accounts for another 10.2% of the metagame. Around 22% of the cost is tied up in Wrenn and Six and Archon of Cruelty, cards from Modern Horizons 1 and Modern Horizons 2 respectively.
Hammer Time - comes in at $967 and accounts for around 7.2% of the metagame. Urza's Saga and Esper Sentinel take up around 25% of the cost of the decks, both of which are from Modern Horizons 2.
Temur Rhinos - $1214 and accounts for around 6.8% of the metagame. We have 23% of the deck cost tied up in a playset of Force of Negation and Fury which again are from Modern Horizons 1 and Modern Horizons 2 respectively.

These four decks make up around 37% of the metagame. This means you are likely to play against at least one if not several of these decks in any larger tournament setting. While these decks cost a good bit of money, they are arguably in line, if not cheaper, than many decks throughout Modern's history. For example, back in early 2015, Modern Jund played:

4x Tarmogoyf ($150+ each)
4x Liliana of the Veil ($75+ each)
4x Dark Confidant ($70+ each)
4x Verdant Catacombs ($35+ each)

This doesn't even include numerous $10-$15 cards rounding out the deck. 2015 Jund easily topped out at $1500 at the time.

While not all top-tier Modern decks approach Jund price levels, many have often been upward of $1000-$1400. Current prices appear perfectly in line with this.

Aggravating Factors On Modern Prices

I wanted to call out the more expensive Modern Horizons cards in current decks specifically, because of Wizards of the Coast's penchant for Secret Lair drops and the general consensus from players that these cards need a reprint to lower their prices. I could easily see many of them getting reprinted in the near future. This isn't to say go and sell your personal copies now, but I see very little upside to their current prices and significant risk.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

I will be the first to admit, that I own none of them and a large part of that reasoning was that I don't play a lot of Modern anymore and I can wait to pick up copies for our local Legacy tournaments when prices drop.

When looking at Modern, or really any non-rotating format, the deck price is typically a one-time expense. Most players pick up a Modern deck and either try to master it or trade the cards off towards building a deck they do like. Either way, deck costs aren't really a recurring factor like they are in Standard. Thus, it's acceptable, and almost expected, for the overall cost to be higher. This is partly because these cards are typically the best of the best, and there's a sentiment among players that they should be more valuable for that reason.

Accessibility vs Collectability

Accessibility and Collectability are two sides of the same coin. You can't have both. For cards to be accessible they must be readily available and thus cheap. For cards to be collectible they need to be rare and hard to find. I must admit that as a store, I find Wizards of the Coast's push towards numerous variants of differing availabilities to be annoying to monitor and maintain. However, as a player, it is abundantly clear that this avenue allows the "more common" versions of cards to be pushed into the marketplace by the collectors looking to recoup some of their costs of chasing the extremely rare variants. This then lowers the price of the normal versions and allows players to get their necessary cards for less than they might have in the past.

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My Final Verdict

No disrespect to the writers at CBR.com, but after looking at the numbers, I think they got it very wrong. While it's true that the rarest of the rare cards are ballooning in price, the game as a whole appears to be getting less expensive. This is especially true of the Standard format. It's definitely nice to know that if a player wants to play paper Standard competitively, they no longer have to fork over suitcases full of money to play.

One could argue that the price of Modern appears relatively stable at around $1000 for a top-tier competitive deck, but at least the prices are stable. Indeed, with the potential for reprints at any time, as we discussed, they could even get cheaper.

That's my perspective, what's yours? Do you think Magic is getting more expensive? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Out of the Shadows: Diving into the Data of Innistrad

Posted on April 7, 2023April 6, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered (SIR) has been a difficult format for me. After experiencing unprecedented personal success in ONE, culminating in a top 250 finish in March (finishing 109th, after hitting 51 and hiding in the safe haven of best of three), SIR has not felt as intuitive. This fall from grace has been a humbling reminder of the highs and lows of Magic's variance.

When we experience unfortunate results in any aspect of life, we're presented with a myriad of options. We can blame barriers outside of our control and bemoan the cruelties of the world, or we can choose to reflect and get good (or, at least, better).

There is a major difference between playing a focused game on Arena and just clicking through plays in mindless tilt. When our failures lead us to hopelessness, we take less accountability for our actions, and it reflects in our gameplay. That being said, we won't spend this week congratulating ourselves on being reflective. Rather, we'll dive into the numbers and come away with learning that gameplay has yet to offer us (read: me).

Game In Hand Win Rate

When trying to understand a new format, the first thing we should look at is the Game in Hand Win Rate (GIH WR%) of the commons. While there are other important data points, we want to know what cards are winning the most. Typically, we'll see an overlap between the top commons and the winningest archetypes, but most formats don't reward forcing a single deck. Last week we talked about the power of the archetype synergies in SIR. It's very difficult to build off of those synergies if we can't read what's open.

Looking at the format's top commons provides a couple of meaningful takeaways, answering questions as critical as:

Is there an archetype we should lean into?
What cards does each archetype/color want to prioritize?
What general trends do we notice about the overperforming commons in each color?
Which cards can tell us a specific archetype is "open?"

GIH WR% is the best way to gleam the answers to those questions. When we're struggling, it can be our best friend.

This format features a rotating sheet, which means one card out of every pack will only be in the set for the week. This means the data features some variables that might go unaccounted for. This is not a reason to discard the data. It is, however, information we need to factor into our conclusions. For example, we should assume that specific creature type synergies received a boost in the first week. Spell-based synergies were the largest beneficiaries from the flashback themed week. The "morbid" theme of this week will again emphasize creatures, but also sacrifice synergies.

Initial Takeaways from the Data

It is hard to ignore the abundance of white cards at the top of the list. What is more shocking is how replaceable some of them seem.

Thraben Inspector has a strong pedigree. It sees play in constructed formats, and we shouldn't be surprised to recognize it atop the list by over 2%. Cheap red interaction plays well in most formats, and this one is no exception. Silent Departure and Forbidden Alchemy have both rotated out of the format, and we won't see them for the rest of SIR's run.

The biggest shock on this list is the second-winningest common. While the combat trick has overperformed, this doesn't mean we want to second-pick Strength of Arms. If we go deeper into the data, we'll notice that Strength of Arms has an ALSA of 7.85. Similarly, Lunarch Mantle has an ALSA of 8.03. If we use early picks on cards that are going late, we're sacrificing too much to include them. This means they'll never live up to that GIH WR%. These cards win at their GIH WR% because of their ALSA, not in spite of it.

Still, they should be on our radar. More importantly, we need to be able to infer that these cards are going to thrive in aggressive decks; the high performance of these cards is buoyed by a strong overall performance by the strategy, as well as more powerful cards that are picked earlier.

The high success of aggressive white commons is reflected in overall color performances. White decks do well, but if we're not supposed to spend early picks on Lunarch Mantle and Strength of Arms, how are we supposed to build these decks?

Using the Data to Build White Decks

To make sure that we're building our white decks correctly, we can look at the top performing cards in each of the four white color pairs. Again, we want to make sure that we're considering the ALSA when looking at each of these picks, as well as using reasonable judgment to factor in what our deck needs at any given point. Still, these lists can provide valuable information when considering each pick.

Unsurpisingly, we see a lot of low-costed cards. When looking at the data, it seems to imply that the best WG decks utilize delirium more than we would expect. Last week, we discussed the powerful payoffs in Obsessive Skinner and Gnarlwood Dryad. While green's enablers are well-documented, white provides Lunarch Mantle, Bound by Moonsilver, and Angelic Purge to get multiple card types in the graveyard. This makes a lot of sense, as the two aforementioned delirium payoffs play better as aggressive threats than control cards.

Surprisingly, Dauntless Cathar and Steadfast Cathar are further down on this list, and not shown in the data set. This color combination was billed as a Humans Aggro deck, but the data implies that the delirium builds are stronger. Even in its short time in the format, Elder Cathar had only a 52.9% GIH WR. Not great.

Moonlight Hunt performs really well in this archetype; however, its small sample size implies that it's only seeing play in decks with an extremely high Werewolf counts.

Gleaning an Edge

Spirits has performed well for me in this format despite my previously mentioned struggles.

UW Spirits is a little less mysterious. This deck is a tempo deck, so we want to set up the clock early. Tattered Haunter does that very well and Apothecary Geist gains us life to help us win the race. This deck is pretty intuitive to build, so it's not surprising that it has such a high win percentage. Speaking of straightforward decks, the RW deck is a quintessential aggressive deck.

This is the deck that wants Dauntless Cathar. It's a low-curve aggro deck, but the missing ingredient in my recipes has definitely been Magmatic Chasm. Hazardous Blast was the scourge of the format in ONE, and this card does a lot of the same work. It lets us finish games afterDrownyard Explorers and Graf Mole stabilize the board.

Building BR

The two most prominent themes in BR are Madness and Vampires, and they're both well-represented amongst the top commons in the color pair.

Alchemist's Greeting needs a lot of support to be great, and in this deck it is. With Vampiric Fury out of the format, the top ten commons are either efficient removal spells or part of the Madness equation, as either discard outlets or madness payoffs. Other decks don't really want Weirded Vampire or Insatiable Gorgers, so if we're seeing them around their ALSA, it might mean the color is open. If we're not seeing those cards late, we should consider finding a new home for our red cards. The problem is that the madness enablers and payoffs are insular. Gisa's Bidding is good in any black deck, but the other black cards are much better in Vampires than anywhere else.

Because the best red cards are efficient removal spells, we should consider UR spells a natural home for them.

It's safe to assume that this color pair peaked when the bonus sheet provided a flashback card in every pack. Getting extra spells and cast triggers is a nice bonus. Furthermore, the deck loses out on two of its best cards, Silent Departure and Forbidden Alchemy.

Because the removal is so valuable in this deck, we naturally will want to pair that with card draw. The more we consider the strategy of this deck, the more we want Take Inventory. It's the best way to generate raw card advantage, and if we can cut them early, we gain a lot from them late.

This deck doesn't prioritize aggressive creatures, which confirms my initial feelings that this is best built as a control deck. Drownyard Explorers outperforms Pyre Hound despite being taken slightly later in drafts. Spontaneous Mutation is a strong performer here as well. Instants and sorceries naturally power it up, and the slower we are, the better this effect.

Bouncing Back

Some formats come naturally, while some require more work. SIR has been of the latter variety. That being said, we can't expect to have an incredible comeback unless we're down a few points. While our winning percentage might have dropped a few points, refining our strategies with data-supported practices should yield positive results.

Furthermore, Magic is a game where variance plays a major role. In the draft and during in game plays, all of us are subject to good hands, lucky top-decks, finding the open lane, as well as flooding out, or mulliganing into oblivion. However, if we focus on the things we can control, we'll put ourselves in position to create positive change.

Finally, while I wish I could say I plan to immediately utilize this information to go out there and win some drafts with GW Delirium decks, or torching opposing defenses with Magmatic Chasm, it looks like the good folks at Wizards of the Coast have decided that my talents would be more appropriately challenged in Explorer. Not quite sure why a top finish in Limited would force me to battle it out in Constructed (gross), but you can be sure I'll be utilizing the data to put myself in the best possible position. If you have any thoughts on the data, or some tips as I venture into Explorer, do share in the comments!

March ’23 Metagame Analysis: A Fable of Outliers

Posted on April 7, 2023April 7, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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March's data shows that a small number of decks are dominating Modern to a degree I find concerning. Given how UR Murktide has been an overwhelming metagame force for an entire year, this strongly indicates a stagnating metagame. I'm working on a full article examining Modern's health, but for now I'm focusing on what happened in March and how.

Unpacking the Big Five

There's no getting around the population data: UR Murktide, 4-Color Creativity, Hammer Time, Temur Rhinos, and Rakdos Scam (for the rest of this article, the Big Five) are the most popular decks in Modern by a lot, and across play mediums. Creativity makes a solid claim as the best overall deck in Modern, as it had the best average points among the Tier 1 decks in both paper and online. This is quite surprising. Modern has had one or more statistical outliers since this time last year, but never so many, nor so consistently.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Paper actually included another outlier in Amulet Titan, but I don't think it counts. It wasn't close to outlier status online, unlike the other decks. This is because Amulet's paper numbers are driven not by the overall metagame but by a single source. For reasons unknown to me, Star City Games attracts Amulet players. It always has. I always input the SCG data into my spreadsheets last so I can watch and see how it changes the numbers. This time I watched SCGCon Charlotte's results move Amulet from below Burn to outlier territory. It's not the same as other decks.

The MTGO Trends

As I mentioned in the data article, I know how these decks achieved their huge populations but not why. When the Big Five are the decks that show up in the large events far more than any other deck, of course they're going to beat out everything else. Therefore, the first question to ask is if I should have seen this coming. Was there an upward trend with these decks that predicted this outcome? Let's check the graph:

Well, Murktide has been on a gradual upward trend, which isn't too surprising given its history. Hammer Time hasn't recovered despite Mill falling off in March. Scam is volatile, so there's no way to know what happens next. On net these three, which had been the top decks for a while, fell. Thus, any upward trend was driven by the other two decks.

Both Creativity and Temur Rhinos spiked hard in March. Creativity was 4.91% in February rising to 9.27% in March. Rhinos was at 3.08% in February and skyrocketed to 7.98% in March. That is quite shocking. I knew both decks were up in March, but I didn't know how strong the spike was. Therefore, these two are the decks to focus on.

The Paper Trends

What about paper? It had been healthier from an outlier and general data distribution standpoint before March. To have suddenly become arguably unhealthy is quite shocking. What does the graph show?

*Something very surprising, apparently.*

I knew that Murktide was relatively down, but I didn't know how. It's one thing to have access to all the data; it's another to be able to visualize it. Murktide and Hammer Time have clearly fallen off significantly in paper while Scam is fairly stable. It's been up and down, but just barely. Again, the overall trend was driven by Rhinos and Creativity.

The increase isn't as dramatic in paper. Rhinos was at 4.09 in February, increasing to 5.61 in March. That's a decent bump, but not anything like what happened online. Creativity was at 5.20 and rose to 8.21, notably having been trending downward previously. That's significant, but still lower than Magic Online, which leaves paper's concentration as a bit of a mystery. The overall spread of the rest of the data isn't much greater despite the higher population and lower unique decks. However, overall lesson is that the movers in March were Creativity and Rhinos.

Rhinos Rising

That Temur Rhinos (formally referred to in this column as Cascade Crashers) is doing well is not surprising. It's been a consistent strong performer for two years now. The main hiccup was when Leyline Binding convinced players that 4-Color Rhinos was the way to go. That surge has subsided, and the Temur version is back on top. This is the advantage of being a more focused list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

The merits of Temur Rhinos vs. other versions are somewhat old hat at this point. What is relevant today is that Temur's very focused manabase and gameplan make it a perfect metagame tool. In a field where other fast aggressive decks are down and Creativity is rising, Rhino's maindeck Force of Negation proves fairly meta-breaking. Couple that with playing Blood Moon either main or side, and I suspect that the rise of Rhinos was a direct result of Creativity's own ascent.

Creativity's Conundrum

It's a strange thought that Indomitable Creativity is making a play for the best deck in Modern. Murktide has always been more popular, but Creativity has the better win rate. 13 months ago, I accused the deck of being a pretender, and here we are now. I stand by that analysis, as it was all true at the time. For Creativity to rise, something needed to change. And change something did.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki

In a card, the change was Fable of the Mirror-Breaker. Two creatures and a Faithless Looting for three mana is pretty good as-is, then add in treasure making and suddenly Creativity could consolidate a lot of slots into one card. This adoption let Creativity transition away from racing to Tinker for a fatty, a strategy that wasn't working, to playing a long, more controlling game. If the optimal strategy was racing out Archon of Cruelty, then Jund Creativity would be on top.

Instead, 4-Color Creativity is making waves and is the current driver of the metagame. It gets to threaten Creativity without having it, while still advancing a clock thanks to Fable. This gives it a Splinter Twin-like tempo drain, while playing a decent control game. Thus, it can just wait for the moment to strike or win the game while the opponent is distracted.

Time to Reposition

Consequently, I think that some of Creativity's rise is being facilitated by opponents playing poorly against it. They're still largely focused on the old, straightforward plan, and don't really appreciate how different the deck is now. When the current plans for fighting the deck clearly aren't working, it's time to reposition and adjust. I think players need to adjust their focus from Creativity itself towards Fable, to the point I think it's more correct to name Fable with Necromentia effects than Archon.

The Wider Metagame

As for the wider metagame, the only deck that consistently challenges the Big Five is Burn. This isn't entirely surprising, as in my experience Burn has at-worst even matchups against all of them except Hammer Time. Any deck that's careless with its life total is going to fall to the fire, and Creativity in particular can be loose. I'd expect Burn to remain the best also-ran deck in Modern for the time being.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasha's Hideous Laughter

As for the rest of Modern, there are a lot of solid decks that simply could not hang with the Big Five consistently. However, that hasn't stopped them from winning events. Both Mill and Tron won Challenges in the past week, which highlights the weird paradox of Modern's statistics. The Big Five puts up absurd numbers and dominates the field, but they don't actually win events. As far as the stats go, there's been a solid case for calling Murktide Tier 0 for a while, but since it rarely actually wins events, it can't be. The struggle with this paradox of decks dominating field but not actually winning events is a major focus of my present research on Modern's health.

Metagame Opportunity?

Given that the Big Five constitute ~40% of Modern, and with Burn and Amulet ~50%, this seems like as close a time as any to try metagaming. Normally, metagaming in Modern is a very bad idea. The field is too wide to accurately predict what will be played at any tournament. However, the actual competitive field in this Modern is narrowing, possibly significantly. This suggests that this is finally the time to really bend a deck towards the narrow metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

I'm not outright opposed to the idea. A ~50% of hitting one of seven well-prepared-against decks is decent odds and certainly better than most metagames. However, that still leaves a 50% chance of missing entirely. I'd further ask how exactly the metagaming will work. Just building a focused sideboard is definitely fine. Bringing a deck that is great against the top decks and nothing else seems suspect. For one, what single deck is great against those seven, wildly different decks? For two, is it worth the risk of missing? Thus, I'd say that, contrary to my usual advice, some metagaming is justified in the current Modern.

Finance Corner

As always, we'll close out this column with some financial advice. With Modern stabilizing, so are staple prices. There's still good demand for them, but we're not seeing much upward pressure on prices. There is actually more likely to be downward pressure as players settle into their decks, stop switching, and thus stop buying new cards. Down the road, there will almost certainly be new upward pressure once instability returns, but for now I'm forecasting gradual decreases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

The exception has been Creativity. That card spiked in February, and while we're down from the spike, the deck's sustained success is likely to keep demand high. It's still on the upward price trend that began in 2022. Given the chatter around the deck, including this article, there should be plenty of arbitrage opportunities for the Creativity staples.

Money-Making Monkey

The wildcard in the next month will be Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. It's being reprinted in March of the Machines' bonus sheet, and that's going to drive both demand and supply, just as when Tarmogoyf was first printed in Modern Masters. That caused a significant price spike. This might suggest that this is the time to stockpile Ragavan in anticipation of a price spike, but hold on. This is 2023, not 2013, and the supply and demand forces won't necessarily play out the same way.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

MM1 was opened in large numbers, but it was still a non-Standard legal set and had a relatively higher price point. The number of players was also smaller back then. Therefore, MOM is very likely to be opened more than MM1, which translates into a large number of new Ragavans. Thus, I have to believe that the supply of new Ragavans will be at least as high as that of new Goyfs was ten years ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

On the demand side, 2013 Goyf and 2023 Ragavan are similarly metagame-defining threats. At the time, it was said that opening 'Goyf was the gateway to buying into Jund, and that's what drove the price spike. Having opened Modern's flagship creature, curious players decided to buy into Modern, which was still only two years old. The format is more mature no, and at this point, most players have made up their mind about buying in, so the impulse to join off opening one card is likely lower. Moreover, Modern is more expensive these days. The average price of a deck is about $900, which would have bought a high-end Jund deck back in the day. Thus, given uncertain demand and a supply increase, I'd actually expect the price to fall after the reprint, as opposed to Goyf's which ended up rising.

Waters Calming

I haven't seen anything in MOM that's going to dramatically change Modern. There are plenty of interesting cards and interactions to discuss next week, but probably not anything to shake the hold of the Big Five. The data I've seen from April is following March's lead. I therefore expect to be discussing the same trends in April's article. See you then!

Did March of the Machine Forget About Commander?

Posted on April 6, 2023April 5, 2023 by Joe Mauri

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With March of the Machine spoiled and ready to be released, there are as always new cards that have the potential to ruffle feathers. On top of some interesting legendary cards, there's also the brand-new battle card type. But despite all that, MOM may not be the set Commander die-hards needed or wanted.

Team-Ups... But Not Really

When they first spoiled the "team up" concept, I thought of the cards above. Obviously, meld is a unique mechanic, but since it had just re-appeared in The Brothers' War I thought it could easily make an appearance here. I was wrong.

The new "team up" cards feature huge walls of text, an unbelievable amount of abilities slapped onto every card (unless you're Yargle and Multani), and a surprisingly small amount of commas. Overall, I'm broadly happy with the choices here. A lot of the pairings will create some waves in Commander because of mixed creature type potential like Ghalta and Mavren or Kogla and Yidaro. Look for a lot of cards with synergy to spike, at least temporarily. This set is full of cards that interact with existing cards like Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord which get a boost. However, most of these plays are only short-term moves.

Of course, the execution's not perfect. Baral and Kari Zev has creature type Human; no other types. Uh, why are they not a Human Pirate Wizard? This would be much cooler, have tons of great interaction historically, and not have any impact on type-specific decks in Standard. As-is, they generate a token that has more creature types than they do. This odd design "decision" knocks down the concept just a bit for me. Furthermore, it seemed like an interesting idea to make sure all the pairings had three types but not all do. While Drana and Linvala can make sense and work with two very popular types, some of the other cards feel like they are just missing creature types.

Battles are Boring

Let's take a look at Matt Tabak's write-up on the battle mechanic for March of the Machine.

"A battle's subtype provides rules for how it can be attacked. Since every battle in this set has the subtype Siege, they all play by the same rules. (Could future battles have different subtypes and have different combat rules? It would certainly seem some bright, forward-thinking people set the system up that way.) As a Siege battle enters the battlefield, its controller chooses an opponent to be its protector. Every player except a battle's protector may attack it. Only a battle's protector may block creatures attacking it. Don't confuse protector for controller. You're going to attack battles that you control, the first time you've been able to attack your own permanents. Fun!"

Wow, uh, just wow. No Matt, this is not fun. What are most battles in March of the Machine? They are essentially existing spells that turn into a 4/4. For example, look at Invasion of Muraganda // Primordial Plasm. Gee, an over-costed fight card that turns into a 4/4. What about Invasion of Zendikar // Awakened Skyclave? An over-costed Cultivate that turns into a 4/4. Most of the Sieges follow this formula, and this is not very compelling or interesting design space. Telling us "We're working on something better" is a little insulting, to be honest.

When I initially saw the mechanic, I misread it. However, I misread it because I did not think it would be as reductive, simple, and bad as it was. I did not think that Magic card design in 2023 had devolved.

Battles by Beardy

Anybody can look at something and say, "I don't like it." Well, okay, what would you have done? Thanks for asking!

Here's how to make battles both a multiplayer triumph and more interesting in one-on-one play. You cast the battle and give it to another player. Each turn it remains on the battlefield, everyone but the protector gets a benefit. If the battle is defeated, the owner gets a huge benefit; however, if the battle is defended long enough, the protector gets that huge benefit instead.

Now, each turn, your opponent would have to balance whether they want to defend the battle, but continue to give you and the rest of the table a small benefit, versus letting you destroy the battle right away for a large but one-time effect. Actual decisions would be made. And if they happened to be able to defend the battle long enough, they would instead get that huge benefit.

A Quick Tangent

"Why should my cards help my opponent?" I can almost hear you say. Well, because Magic?

Reducing interaction makes a game simpler. Simpler games tend to be more boring. More and more, Magic has chosen to do this on many levels, and it's not great for the game.

I understand capturing a larger audience and trying not to scare people away with complex mechanics. However, according to Hasbro, one-third of Magic players are ten-plus-year veterans while another one-third are three-plus-year veterans. If the vast majority are not scared of complexity and appreciate interaction, why keep dumbing down the game? Why remove the defining characteristic of Slivers? Jeers to one of the two heads in charge of Magic design. Battle - Siege is a boring mechanic, and Magic players are not turned off by slight complexity.

The Multiplayer Angle

If only Wizards had developed this mechanic a little more, everyone would be a lot happier, especially in multi-player. The entire table would be invested in whether or not a battle should be defended or defeated, and also when! Wow, think about the incredible amount of interaction possible. Think about the diplomacy! Think about the format that 70% of your players play regularly. We can think about all that, or, we can reskin an existing card, make it cost a little more mana and then, sometimes, it turns into a 4/4. The least they could have done was put a boat somewhere on Invasion of Segovia // Caetus, Sea Tyrant of Segovia!

Alright, but, according to Matt Wizards has laid the foundation with these cards because they are "battle - Siege" and they will create new battle cards, maybe something like "battle - Skirmish", with rules that are actually fun. As-is, not only are the battles just not very interesting, but they are actively bad for multiplayer. How? Think about it. I play my bad Cultivate which sort of already puts me behind. Now I hope that the table gives me my free 4/4. But why would the table give me my free 4/4?

I'm effectively giving one player extra life points while the other players are getting nothing, so that is more like an alliance mechanic than a diplomacy one. If alliances aren't frowned upon in Commander, then why is Trade Secrets banned? Furthermore, this is for the majority of battle cards where you just get a 4/4. A couple of the effects are powerful enough to where the entire table should work to stop you.

The template for battle cards suggested above resolves all of these issues, instantly.

So Many Double-Faced Cards

Do players love DFCs? I guess so, because for a set with no Werewolves or Optimus Prime, Hero, there's a whole heck of a lot of transforming going on. The nice part about all the DFCs, however, is how many additional new commanders are possible, and how most of these are also throwbacks to other cards. Check out Polukranos Reborn // Polukranos, Engine of Ruin, which turns into a literal Wurmcoil Engine engine, or how Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness goes from Dinosaur to Blightsteel Colossus. These are interesting enough to consider for several potential deck ideas on their own while also being perfectly capable additions for existing deck archetypes. The set is full of throwback ideas like this but the execution is only so-so. There's enough here to like, but not to love.

Underhyped or Overhyped?

Finally, the Dimir sword appears! They did a good job with Sword of Once and Future. Surveil sets up your free spell in any situation and gives you good value.

However, this sword does not seem to have as much raw game-winning power as some of the more popular ones. According to EDHrec, the top 100 equipment lists Sword of Hearth and Home and Sword of Feast and Famine as the most popular swords, and for good reason. However, the next tier of Sword down includes Sword of Truth and Justice and Sword of Forge and Frontier, which I would say is very close to the power of Sword of Once and Future. This is a very medium-power Sword, but at least it's totally usable instead of either completely power crept or functionally useless.

Is Elspeth's Smite the new best removal card in, well, every format? Yes and no. It's a good white hybridization of Lightning Bolt and Swords to Plowshares, two cards that have withstood the test of time as the best removal spells of all time. However, the Smite is simply nowhere near as good as either of those cards because of history.

Both the top 100 all cards and top 100 instants have some situational removal in terms of types or even colors but none of them are situational based on combat. There are piles of white removal spells that do something to an attacking or blocking creature, and none of them have ever been as dominant as other, better options. Unfortunately, while I would love to hype up Elspeth's Smite, I think it will be relatively underwhelming. Still, it's a nice attempt at making a good white removal spell that is not Swords to Plowshares.

Faerie Mastermind deserves all the hype and even more. Blue is obviously the undisputed master of card draw, and they've added another trick to their arsenal for only two mana. As just a 2/1 with flying, the Faerie really is no threat to anyone, and also can bribe people with a four-mana activated ability that effectively draws you two cards. I really do see this card as another copy of cards like Rhystic Study, Mystic Remora, and Esper Sentinel, and I expect it to go into tons of Commander decks.

Good, Bad, or, Other?

I'm solidly in the "other" category regarding March of the Machine. There are some decent ideas and moves that make sense. However, there are just as many things in the set that make me think, "Are they even trying?"

Drafting potential looks good, along with a lot of new Commanders. But mechanics-wise, it's very light. The backup keyword is very ho-hum. While there are a lot of throwbacks, references, and somewhat older keywords, there isn't a whole lot to the set. I guess we'll just have to wait and see which of the heads makes March of the Machine: The Aftermath.

What do you think? Is March of the Machine actually the best Magic set this year and I'm just missing the hype train? Are battles actually sick? Let me know in the comments.

March ’23 Metagame Update: Overwhelming Outliers

Posted on April 5, 2023April 7, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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The first full week of the month is synonymous with the Modern Metagame Update. Or it should be by now, anyway. This is the third year I've been at this without missing an update, and I'd like to think readers are looking forward to it. But sadly for those who did, this is the worst looking metagame I've reported on since companions were errata'd.

About the Title...

Gonna cut to the chase here. The top five, yes five, decks on Magic Online (MTGO) are all statistical outliers. It's actually worse in paper (for once), where the top six decks are outliers. Meaning, they lie far enough outside the trend of the rest of the data that they're not really considered part of the data set. They're deviant. The seventh-ranked paper deck was in the grey, where some tests put it as an outlier, and some don't. Burn was therefore left in the paper analysis, but the outlier decks were removed from the calculations per my long-standing policy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

Without this policy, MTGO would have no Tier 2. There's a huge gap between the outliers and the next best deck, and that coupled with the enormous Standard Deviation meant that there would be a wide Tier 3 and then the outliers in Tier 1.

With so many culprits, it feels like it distorts the data more than removing the outliers. Paper's population tier would have had one deck (Living End) in Tier 2, while Burn fell to Tier 2 based on power. I've had tiny Tier 2s before, but it's never been non-existent. The fact that it could have been says a great deal about the data that you're about to scroll into.

March Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should” produce in a given month. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks.

The MTGO data nearly exclusively comes from official Preliminary and Challenge results. Leagues are excluded, as they're a curated list and thus invalid. The paper data comes from any source I can find, with all reported events being counted.

The MTGO Population Data

In March, the adjusted average population for MTGO was 6.48, setting the Tier 3 cutoff at eight decks. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting seven results. The adjusted STdev was 7.73, which means that Tier 3 runs to 15 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 16 results and runs to 24. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 25 decks are required. These numbers are all very low compared to most months, but are understandable given the five outliers. They also make sense given the spread of the non-outlier data.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Living End

March has set a new record for largest combined data. There were more large Preliminaries and more Challenge level events than normal, fueling the increase. January 2023 had 840 decks, February had 876, and March blows them away with 1,003 decks. I spent 2022 analyzing fewer decks between paper and MTGO combined, making this the most accurate picture of the Modern metagame ever.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

That said, the high population didn't translate to more unique decks. That's unsurprising given the outliers. January had 74 unique decks, February had 84, and March only managed 88. That's far below expectations given how high of an increase the population was. Of those 88 decks, 25 made the population tier. Which is up from February's 25 decks, but that was thanks to the outlier adjustment, not the decks performing better.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	165	16.45
4-Color Creativity	93	9.27
Temur Rhinos	80	7.98
Rakdos Scam	69	6.88
Hammer Time	64	6.38
Burn	36	3.59
Amulet Titan	28	2.79
Izzet Value Breach	26	2.59
Living End	25	2.49
Tier 2
Jund Saga	23	2.29
Counter Cat	20	1.99
4-Color Elementals	19	1.89
Temur Creativity	19	1.89
Yawgmoth	19	1.89
UW Control	18	1.79
Jund Creativity	18	1.79
Izzet Prowess	16	1.59
Tier 3
Jeskai Value Breach	15	1.50
Mill	14	1.40
Mono-Green Tron	14	1.40
Hardened Scales	11	1.10
Dredge	11	1.10
Affinity	11	1.10
Mono-Red Moon	11	1.10
5-Color Creativity	11	1.10
4-Color Control	10	1.00
Merfolk	9	0.90
Humans	8	0.80
4-Color Rhinos	8	0.80
Eldrazi Tron	7	0.70
Mono-Blue Tron	7	0.70

The five outliers were outliers by quite a wide margin. The unadjusted STDev was 23.59, so the 28-deck gap between Hammer Time and Burn was enough to qualify as an outlier. This is reinforced by the nice trend line of all the nonoutlier decks.

While I can't explain why this happened, I do know how. The top five decks were the primary (sometimes almost only) decks to show up in Challenges. While there were a good mix of decks in Preliminaries, with only Murktide showing up in high numbers, everything outside the top five had to squeeze through the proverbial cracks to make it in the Challenges. I can't say if this was a quirk, MTGO chasing its own tail, or a portent of things to come. We'll get closer to knowing come the April data.

The Paper Population Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tiers, just with different data. In most months there are far more reported paper events than online, but paper also tends to report fewer results per event. It's quite annoying, but paper events rarely report more than the Top 8, and far too often for my purposes, the Top 4. This makes the paper data far more variable than MTGO. January saw 667 decks, February is up to 807, and March hit 962. As previously mentioned, this is the largest combined data set I've worked with thanks to a lot more (and larger) events.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Mystic

The big sample size is somewhat indebted to my decision this year to include more results when able. Paper events often report the actual records alongside decklists. Not always, but often. Thus, I've decided to slightly alter how I take decks when win rates are available. For smaller events, the sometimes means I don't include the full Top 8. For larger events, I'm taking the Top 32 and all the decks with the same record as 32nd place. Tiebreakers are a strange and mysterious alchemy, after all, and may benefit or screw players on a dime.

Again, significantly more decks recorded didn't yield a more diverse dataset. Diversity actually fell. January had 101, February was 108, but March only managed 103. 34 decks made the tier list, which seems high but again is thanks to six outliers. The adjusted average population was 5.84, so six decks make Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 7.84, so the increment is 8. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 6 to 14, Tier 2 is 15 to 23, and Tier 1 is 24 and over.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	87	9.04
4-Color Creativity	79	8.21
Rakdos Scam	70	7.28
Hammer Time	57	5.92
Temur Rhinos	54	5.61
Amulet Titan	52	5.40
Burn	46	4.78
Living End	28	2.91
Merfolk	25	2.60
Tier 2
4-Color Elementals	23	2.39
Yawgmoth	23	2.39
UW Control	21	2.18
Jund Creativity	20	2.08
Izzet Prowess	19	1.98
4-Color Rhinos	18	1.87
Mono-Green Tron	18	1.87
Jeskai Combo Breach	17	1.77
4-Color Blink	17	1.77
Jund Saga	15	1.56
Counter Cat	15	1.56
Tier 3
Mill	14	1.45
Grixis Death's Shadow	13	1.35
Hardened Scales	13	1.35
Mono-Red Moon	13	1.35
Jeskai Value Breach	11	1.14
Bring to Light	10	1.04
4-Color Control	10	1.04
Affinity	10	1.04
Death and Taxes	9	0.94
Goryo's Kitchen	7	0.73
Dredge	7	0.73
Domain Zoo	7	0.73
Eldrazi Tron	6	0.62
Mono-Red Artifacts	6	0.62
Humans	6	0.62

*An improvement, but still dangerously top-heavy.*

While the Top 5 decks are the same between MTGO and paper, here they're joined by Amulet Titan. I'm chalking that up to Amulet being weirdly popular on the US east coast, as it shows up in very high numbers in Star City Games events. It doesn't tend to win said events, it just shows up a lot. The reasons for the outliers are the same in paper as online, as the big events were dominated by the Top 5 to the relative exclusion of other decks.

March Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame.

The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into the Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8's. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential.

The MTGO Power Tiers

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There were a few 4-point events and no 5-pointer in February.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

Total points rose just like the population, from 1412 to 1631. The adjusted average points were 10.37, therefore 11 points made Tier 3. The adjusted STDev was 12.39. Thus add 13 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 24 points. Tier 2 starts with 25 points and runs to 38. Tier 1 requires at least 39 points.

Eldrazi Tron fell off the power tier from population. It was replaced by Grixis Shadow.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	272	16.68
4-Color Creativity	159	9.75
Temur Rhinos	131	8.03
Rakdos Scam	113	6.93
Hammer Time	106	6.50
Burn	60	3.68
Izzet Value Breach	43	2.64
Amulet Titan	42	2.57
Tier 2
Jund Saga	38	2.33
Yawgmoth	35	2.15
Counter Cat	34	2.08
Living End	33	2.02
4-Color Elementals	31	1.90
Temur Creativity	31	1.90
UW Control	27	1.65
Mono-Green Tron	26	1.59
Jund Creativity	25	1.53
Izzet Prowess	25	1.53
Tier 3
Jeskai Value Breach	24	1.47
Merfolk	19	1.16
Mill	18	1.10
Mono-Red Moon	18	1.10
Affinity	17	1.04
4-Color Rhinos	17	1.04
Hardened Scales	16	0.98
Dredge	16	0.98
5-Color Creativity	15	0.92
Mono-Blue Tron	15	0.92
Humans	14	0.86
4-Color Control	12	0.74
Grixis Death's Shadow	11	0.67

*Most concerning is the tiny Other category.*

The same trend in the population is apparent in the power tier. Non-Tier 1 decks are really struggling to compete.

The Paper Power Tiers

Due to paper reporting being inconsistent compared to MTGO, I have to adapt how the points work. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award and there are data gaps. Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grief

For events with no reported starting population and those up to 32 players, one point is awarded. Events with 33 players up to 128 players gets two points. From 129 players up to 512 players gets three. Above 512 is four points and five points will be reserved for Modern Pro Tours if they ever happen.

March saw the first paper event to qualify for four points, which dramatically raised the point total. January saw 1178 points, February hit 1316, and March has 1890, more points than MTGO. The adjusted average points were 10.95. This sets the cutoff at 11 decks. The STDev was 15.39, thus adding 16 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 27 points. Tier 2 starts with 28 points and runs to 44. Tier 1 requires at least 45 points. The total decks rose from 34 to 33 as Domain Zoo couldn't scrape together enough points to remain.

Deck Name	Total Points	Total %
Tier 1
4-Color Creativity	176	9.31
UR Murktide	174	9.21
Rakdos Scam	142	7.51
Hammer Time	121	6.40
Temur Rhinos	115	6.08
Amulet Titan	104	5.50
Burn	89	4.71
Living End	55	2.91
4-Color Elementals	45	2.38
Tier 2
UW Control	44	2.33
Yawgmoth	43	2.27
4-Color Rhinos	40	2.12
Merfolk	39	2.06
Jeskai Combo Breach	39	2.06
Izzet Prowess	36	1.90
4-Color Blink	36	1.90
Jund Creativity	35	1.85
Mono-Green Tron	34	1.80
Jund Saga	33	1.75
Counter Cat	29	1.53
Tier 3
Jeskai Value Breach	26	1.38
Mill	25	1.32
Grixis Death's Shadow	25	1.32
Hardened Scales	25	1.32
Mono-Red Moon	21	1.11
Bring to Light	21	1.11
4-Color Control	20	1.06
Eldrazi Tron	16	0.85
Affinity	15	0.79
Death and Taxes	13	0.69
Goryo's Kitchen	12	0.63
Dredge	12	0.63
Mono-Red Artifacts	12	0.63
Humans	12	0.63

*Such a tiny Other means decks are being crowded out.*

In an unusual twist, 4-Color Creativity actually beat out Murktide for the top slot on power. This isn't surprising given that Murktide's overall win rate is about 50% against everything. It's a very hard deck to pilot well with a high skill ceiling, but also a high floor. Creativity actually gets free wins, so it has always performed better. Given that there's not a huge difference in population this month, it was natural for Creativity to just pip Murktide for the top slot, though statistically they're tied.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.

Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yawgmoth, Thran Physician

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind, and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa.

How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a deck's position is on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this.

I'll begin with the averages for MTGO:

Deck Name	Average Power	Power Tier
Mono-Blue Tron	2.14	3
4-Color Rhinos	2.13	3
Merfolk	2.11	3
Mono-Green Tron	1.86	2
Yawgmoth	1.84	2
Grixis Death's Shadow	1.83	3
Humans	1.75	3
4-Color Creativity	1.71	1
Counter Cat	1.70	2
Burn	1.67	1
Hammer Time	1.66	1
UR Murktide	1.65	1
Izzet Value Breach	1.65	1
Jund Saga	1.65	2
Temur Rhinos	1.64	1
Rakdos Scam	1.64	1
Mono-Red Moon	1.64	3
4-Color Elementals	1.63	2
Baseline	1.63
Temur Creativity	1.63	2
Jeskai Value Breach	1.60	3
Izzet Prowess	1.56	2
Affinity	1.54	3
Amulet Titan	1.50	1
UW Control	1.50	2
Hardened Scales	1.45	3
Dredge	1.45	3
Jund Creativity	1.39	2
5-Color Creativity	1.36	3
Living End	1.32	2
Mill	1.29	3
4-Color Control	1.20	3

Congratulations to 4-Color Creativity. As the top performing Tier 1 deck, you're MTGO's Deck of the Month for March.

Now the paper averages:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Eldrazi Tron	2.67	3
Jeskai Value Breach	2.36	3
Jeskai Combo Breach	2.29	2
4-Color Creativity	2.23	1
4-Color Rhinos	2.22	2
Jund Saga	2.20	2
Temur Rhinos	2.13	1
Hammer Time	2.12	1
4-Color Blink	2.12	2
Bring to Light	2.10	3
UW Control	2.09	2
Rakdos Scam	2.03	1
UR Murktide	2.00	1
Amulet Titan	2.00	1
4-Color Control	2.00	3
Mono-Red Artifacts	2.00	3
Humans	2.00	3
Living End	1.96	1
4-Color Elementals	1.96	1
Burn	1.93	1
Counter Cat	1.93	2
Grixis Death's Shadow	1.92	3
Hardened Scales	1.92	3
Izzet Prowess	1.89	2
Mono-Green Tron	1.89	2
Yawgmoth	1.87	2
Mill	1.79	3
Jund Creativity	1.75	2
Baseline	1.74
Goryo's Kitchen	1.71	3
Dredge	1.71	3
Mono-Red Moon	1.61	3
Merfolk	1.56	2
Affinity	1.50	3
Death and Taxes	1.44	3

Congratulations to 4-Color Creativity. As the top performing Tier 1 deck, you're paper's Deck of the Month for March, too. I think this is the first time this the same deck has been Deck of the Month in both categories since I started doing the averages.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus was first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Amulet of Vigor

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, but a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	MTGO Pop Tier	MTGO Power Tier	MTGO Average Tier	Paper Pop Tier	Paper Power Tier	Paper Average Tier	Composite Tier
UR Murktide	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
4-Color Creativity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Hammer Time	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Temur Rhinos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Rakdos Scam	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Burn	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Amulet Titan	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.00
Living End	1	2	1.5	1	1	1	1.25
4-Color Elementals	2	2	2	2	1	1.5	1.75
Yawgmoth	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Counter Cat	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Jund Saga	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Izzet Prowess	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
UW Control	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
Jund Creativity	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00
4-Color Rhinos	3	3	3	2	2	2	2.00
Mono-Green Tron	3	2	2.5	2	2	2	2.25
Merfolk	3	3	3	1	2	1.5	2.25
Izzet Value Breach	1	1	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.50
Temur Creativity	2	2	2	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.00
Humans	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Mono-Red Moon	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Jeskai Value Breach	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Affinity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Hardened Scales	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Dredge	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Mill	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
4-Color Control	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.00
Jeskai Combo Breach	N/A	N/A	N/A	2	2	2	3.00
4-Color Blink	N/A	N/A	N/A	2	2	2	3.00
Grixis Death's Shadow	N/A	3	3.5	3	3	3	3.25
Eldrazi Tron	3	N/A	3.5	3	3	3	3.25
Mono-Blue Tron	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
5-Color Creativity	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.50
Bring to Light	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Death and Taxes	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Goryo's Kitchen	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Mono-Red Artifacts	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.50
Domain Zoo	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	N/A	3.5	3.75

*This metagame is very unbalanced, and is deeply concerning.*

Normally, there are a lot more decks in the partial tiers rather than the full ones, indicating movement and churn in the metagame. The fact that this didn't happen in March indicates stability and possibly stagnation.

Locked In

It is looking increasingly likely that Modern has been locked into a stable equilibrium around Murktide and company. It is going to take either direct action by Wizards or some very powerful cards from March of the Machine to disrupt that stability. I don't like either implication.

As always, this first-of-the-month article merely presents the collected data, offering little in the way of analysis, metagame implications, and financial opportunities. Join me on Friday when I dig into these results and discuss exactly what has my hackles up. These pieces are normally available to Insiders first, but this week's piece is free for all readers. If you like what you read, and you're not an Insider, consider subscribing today!

Adam Plays Magic: Spellslinging in SIR Draft

Posted on April 4, 2023May 9, 2023 by Adam Cohen

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This week on Adam Plays Magic, we're hopping into a Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered draft. This Arena-only format takes the best cards of Shadows Over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon and spices it up further with a "bonus sheet" comprised of original Innistrad block favorites. That means Emrakul, the Promised End and Tamiyo, Field Researcher may be able to share a battlefield with Snapcaster Mage, Falkenrath Aristocrat, and the like.

To keep the format fresh, that bonus sheet rotates weekly, prioritizing and de-prioritizing different archetypes. For example, week one had a stronger focus on tribal synergies with cards like Drogskull Captain whereas week two has a greater emphasis on flashback spells like Spider Spawning. These changes meaningfully affect how the format plays out and make it an absolute blast to replay. Check out the full bonus sheet schedule here.

What I Played

One of the stronger archetypes of this format is a personal favorite of mine, UR Spells. Believe it or not, this Limited archetype directly translated into a top-tier Standard deck in its time, mainly thanks to Thermo-Alchemist. With so many cheap spells, this pinger represents upwards of two to three damage per turn, per copy. With three toughness, it does a great job of staving off early creatures and sponging up damage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mirrorwing Dragon

My draft started strong with a first-pick Mirrorwing Dragon. The ability isn't at its best in this deck as I'm missing combat tricks like Uncaged Fury, it's a large evasive threat and if the opponent uses a kill spell on it, they wipe their entire board along with it. Moreover, with five toughness, it dodges much of the removal in the set like Alchemist's Greeting. I passed up on a Cackling Counterpart which would've been an amazing combo with the dragon in favor of efficient removal. The disciplined choice was undoubtedly correct, but still, I wish I could've gotten a screenshot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rise from the Tides

What really makes UR Spells so strong is Rise from the Tides. Similar to Spider Spawning, all this card asks is that you make it to the late game and then it invalidates the rest of the board by flooding it with 2/2 zombie tokens. In fact, there are so many cheap and interactive spells, UR is incentivized to play as few creatures as possible since the ones you have will give a target to the otherwise dead removal spells in the opponent's hand. Rise goes so wide that it invalidates the opponent's board anyway...and I had two copies along with graveyard recursion to really make sure that final nail was put into my opponents' coffins.

Notably, this deck had three copies of Galvanic Bombardment a Kindle variant that deals more damage for each copy in your graveyard. These ensured I could clear out early and midrange threats efficiently and trade up on mana. Another card I couldn't get enough of was Drag Under, one of the best blue commons. It is a Repulse variant that punishes the opponent for playing large creatures or buffing them with cards like Travel Preparations and Hope Against Hope.

Ultimately, this deck takes early control of the game and out-tempos the opponent with removal and chip damage, followed by a massive Rise from the Tides to close it out. It's powerful, consistent, and demoralizing for the opponent. What more could a person want?

The Deck

SIR UR Draft Deck

Creatures

1 Wharf Infiltrator

2 Thermo-Alchemist

1 Ingenious Skaab

1 Mirrorwing Dragon

Instant

3 Galvanic Bombardment

1 Deny Existence

1 Forbidden Alchemy

Sorcery

1 Silent Departure

1 Tormenting Voice

3 Drag Under

1 Shreds of Sanity

1 Pore over the Pages

1 Alchemist's Greeting

2 Rise from the Tides

Enchantments

1 Fevered Visions

Lands

8 Island

8 Mountain

1 Foreboding Ruins

Sideboard

1 Silent Departure

1 Fogwalker

1 Jace's Scrutiny

1 Convolute

1 Forbidden Alchemy

1 Geist of the Archives

1 Ingenious Skaab

1 Mystic Retrieval

2 Crow of Dark Tidings

1 Gisa's Bidding

1 Faithless Looting

1 Insolent Neonate

2 Ravenous Bloodseeker

1 Insatiable Gorgers

1 Mad Prophet

1 Flameblade Angel

1 Aim High

1 Field Creeper

1 Wild-Field Scarecrow

End Step

I had a blast playing this deck and without spoiling too much, it performed very well. I have a feeling I will be drafting a lot more of this set. As always, you can find me on Twitch and Twitter to keep up with all of my latest decks and testing updates.

With that out of the way, I would like to share a personal note. This will be my last article for Quiet Speculation for the foreseeable future. Last week I started my dream job with a company I love and will be directly improving the lives of people in my community. However, the demands of the position mean that I will need to take a step back from regular content creation.

I cannot thank you enough for coming with me on this journey and supporting my work. This isn't a goodbye forever—more of a see you later.

Cheers,

Adam

A Survey of Magic’s Oversized Cards

Posted on April 3, 2023April 3, 2023 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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My two children were on their Spring Break last week, so my family decided to take a family vacation somewhere different. We’ve done the East Coast, we’ve done the beach, we’ve visited family—this time we wanted to go somewhere affordable, yet a little less traditional. After much debate, we netted out on a trip to Houston, Texas.

While in Texas, we did a variety of family-friendly activities. We went to the beach (Galveston), explored a rainforest exhibit at Moody Gardens, visited NASA’s Johnson Space Center, went to Houston’s impressive art museum, and even attended a Houston Astros baseball game. Throughout the entire trip, the same amusing phrase kept running through my mind:

“Everything is bigger in Texas.”

When considered in the literal sense, this is probably hyperbole. However, I observed different ways the expression rang true throughout the trip. This begs the facetious question: what about the Magic cards? Do Texas players shuffle up oversized decks at their local game shops? Despite how ridiculous the idea sounds, it served as the inspiration for my article this week!

Oversized Cards: A Very Brief History

I've not written an entire article on oversized cards before, but I've touched on them a bit in the past. In December 2019 I wrote an article about cards that aren’t tournament legal, which of course includes oversized cards. Earlier that year, Adam Yurchick mentioned Vanguard in a finance piece. When I went further back, to 2017, I found an article I wrote on domestic arbitrage. Oversized cards were a part of the broader strategy.

A quick Google search doesn’t yield an obvious, definitive first oversized Magic card. The Magic Librarities site has a section devoted to oversized cards and shares what in their estimation are the earliest ones. They list Hurloon Minotaur and Serra Angel as two of the first, given as an attendance bonus to Wizards of the Coast Caravan Tour attendees back in 1995 and 1996.

Then beginning in 1996, various oversized cards were included with contemporaneous magazines about Magic and collectibles: InQuest, Scrye, and The Duelist. The famous Black Lotus oversized card, one of the most valuable to date, was included in issue number 15 of Scrye magazine, July 1996.

Additional oversized promos were handed out as part of the Arena League in the late 1990s and were discontinued by 2000.

Then there are the game-impacting oversized cards, such as Vanguard cards. These cards are larger than a standard Magic card but have an impact on a game when playing with their custom rules. For example, Titania, the most valuable Vanguard card, grants its owner the ability to play an additional land each turn. The numbers in the bottom left and right corners indicate the owner starts with a maximum hand size of nine and starting life total of fifteen, respectively.

Since then, numerous additional promos, Commanders, and other giveaways have introduced many oversized cards to the market. A filter for oversized cards and Vanguard cards on TCGplayer yields over 500 results!

Noteworthy Oversized Cards: Older

I would quickly run out of space if I attempted to cover every oversized card. Seeing as this is a finance column, I’ll try to touch upon some of the most financially interesting oversized cards.

I've already mentioned Black Lotus. Damaged copies of the card can be had for around $100, but a nicer copy will cost you over $200.

Other older oversized cards don’t appear to be as expensive, which is somewhat surprising. Chaos Orb, for example, can be had for around $35. I would think this card would be more valuable, given the meme potential. Flipping a giant Chaos Orb to jokingly destroy many permanents in a game of Old School sounds hilarious, but I guess that joke is overdone. Juzam Djinn, one of the most iconic cards in Magic, can also be purchased for under $30.

This begs the question: what are the other more valuable oversized cards?

A copy of the oversized Vesuvan Doppelganger, given out as a second-place prize during Arena Summer League Season Two, recently sold for over $400 on TCGplayer. That makes it the oversized card with the highest TCGPlayer market price.

However, I believe other cards from the Arena League could be more expensive if only they actually sold—volume on these cards is extremely limited and copies rarely trade hands. Supply is certainly going to be constrained (how many people came in second place during the Arena League that season?), and demand for such cards must be sparse in kind. It looks like the oversized Library of Alexandria, Wheel of Fortune, City of Brass, and Blacker Lotus are also pretty expensive.

Vanguard Cards

I want to briefly discuss the Vanguard cards. These date back to before 2000 and can carry some value. The most valuable is Titania, but don’t be misled by TCGplayer’s numbers—Card Kingdom has 14 EX copies in stock at just $59.49. Gix is the next most expensive at $54.99. Card Kingdom is sold out of those, however, so you’ll have to buy your copy elsewhere. Sliver Queen, Brood Mother, Urza, and Selenia round out the top five (according to Card Kingdom), though a good bit cheaper than the top two.

If the Vanguard format were to see a modern resurgence, I suspect these would spike in price. They must be relatively rare given their age. Alas, the Vanguard format never really gained much traction, thus the prices of the cards are stunted greatly by the lack of demand. I still think they’re pretty cool!

Noteworthy Newer Oversized Cards

My bias steadfastly remains toward the older cards, and oversized cards are no exception. In fact, writing this article has increased my desire to obtain one of the classic oversized cards just to have it on display—it’s probably the only way I’d allow myself to purchase a Juzam Djinn anymore!

However, I cannot ignore a couple of noteworthy, valuable oversized cards that came out this millennium.

According to ABUGames, which isn’t the pricing authority on Magic but does at least have a reasonable set of listings for oversized cards, the foil oversized Gisela, Blade of Goldnight is the most valuable (around $250). There’s only one copy available on TCGplayer, and it’s listed as moderately played for $175 plus shipping.

Where did these come from? According to Magic Librarirites, “For Avacyn Restored prerelease, WOTC sent out approximately 6,000 Helvaults globally for this exciting and unique Prerelease event… 'of the roughly 6,000 Helvaults we [Wizard of the Coast] sent out, we selected 30 Helvaults to get this special treatment. We picked randomly from our Advanced level WPN stores and sent the Premium Helvaults to their new home.'”

These Premium Helvaults, of which only 30 were made, contained 54 Foil Oversized cards of Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Griselbrand, Sigarda, Host of Herons, Bruna, Light of Alabaster, and Gisela, Blade of Goldnight.

You can do the math quickly—30 Premium Helvaults, 54 foil oversized cards in each. These are rare. Like, Alpha rare-level rare. ABUGames is sold out of all the angels, with prices starting north of $100. They do actually have a played foil oversized Griselbrand in stock, listed for $93.49. I couldn’t find a copy for sale on TCGplayer to price compare, but I did find two copies on eBay listed in the $100 range. Perhaps with store credit, that ABUGames copy isn’t such a bad deal.

The last modern-day oversized card I want to shout out this week is Sliver Queen.

You may be wondering why I’m mentioning another Reserved List, pre-2000 card in this section of the article. Well, the original printing of Sliver Queen may be over 23 years old, but this special, oversized version wasn’t printed until 2012 when it came out with the Commander’s Arsenal product.

Market price on TCGplayer is a hair above $100, so these $120.99 copies from ABUGames are definitely a solid pickup when using trade-in credit. I would just caution against going crazy on these for arbitrage purposes simply because demand for this oversized card can’t be huge. It may take a long time to sell through four copies at $100 each. That being said, if you’re in the market for a copy or want to sit on one for a long-term hold, I’d get it here.

An Oversized Topic

I now realize I’m only scratching the surface on a fairly broad topic. For example, I didn’t even mention the puzzle piece cards that could be assembled to build a super-oversized Chaos Orb (the majority of value to these lies in the one ultrarare piece, see image below).

Then there are the oversized cards that can currently be acquired with tickets at large Magic events—some of these are surely rare and quite valuable.

This is a lucrative space to explore if you know your way around the values and rarities of each! I can’t pretend to be an expert, but I must say I’m surprised by how much value lies in these oversized cards.

The most popular of the bunch appears to be the Black Lotus, which comes as no surprise. An eBay completed listings search shows that this oversized card, along with the Scrye magazine it came in, is the most sold of the bunch. Perhaps this is an interesting oversized card to speculate on if you were truly interested in picking one up. The demand remains relatively strong, so even if supply is larger than, say, the Helvault foil promos, at least there will always be steady interest in any version of Magic’s most iconic card.

Wrapping It Up

In the end, that’s what I love most about these oversized cards—they offer you a chance to own something iconic, classic, and rare without having to sell a kidney. Now if only I can figure out a way to shuffle one into my normal-sized deck…

Grow Away: Why UR Murktide Is Still Dominating Modern

Posted on March 31, 2023March 31, 2023 by Jordan Boisvert

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David Ernenwein's recent article on the speed of different proactive decks, "Life in the Fast Lane," touched on a theory topic near and dear to my heart as a thinkin' man: archetypes. I've written extensively on the archetype spectrum wheel, and applied spectrum thinking to topics as trivial as finding a deck I like or as fleeting as figuring out which removal decks were best equipped to beat Champion of the Parish.

*Only real Modern fans know about this 5-year-old table*

Today's agenda seems equally fleeting on paper: we're talking about the best deck in Modern, and those have a habit of changing. But maybe it's actually more evergreen. For one, Wizards has head-scratchingly decreed that UR Murktide ain't going nowhere despite its dominance. And for two, the deck has been dominating (as in, been an outlier in the data) for a record-breaking period of one year. Man, has it been a year already? Yep; the deck first became an outlier last March. (And spoiler alert, it will continue to be an outlier in next week's monthly metagame report.)

So happy one-year-of-dominating-Modern birthday, Murktide Regent! With any luck, this article will remain relevant well into the 2030s as Murktide continues to have its cake and eat it, too.

You may be wondering: besides a burning desire to create the above graphic, what prompted me to crawl out of my editor's cave and submit 3000 words about (presumably) something? To answer that, I'll finish my boring History of Archetype Articles story from before, and then we'll circle back to David. By the end, I'll have made my case for why UR Murktide is not just broken but belongs to a storied lineage of indomitable decks wielding the most powerful strategy in Magic.

What's That Archetype?

My theory work on archetypes led me to write "Death's Shadow of Doubt: Exploring Aggro-Control," which I continue to link today as something of a definitive text on tempo, midrange, and the ever-fuzzy micro-archetypes of rock, fish, stompy, and thresh (from least to most fuzzy). I say "fuzzy" as Magic players are somewhat notorious for disagreeing about the meanings of such terms. What I called thresh decks in my article, David called Delver decks in his. And what he called threshold decks... well, what do I call those?

Threshold: Murktide-style decks

This is the point where it starts getting hard to separate the aggro from the midrange deck. While Modern UR Murktide and the very similar Legacy UR Delver play cheap threats, they're typically throw-away threats. The intention is to disrupt the opponent until it's time to drop a big threat and ride it to victory. That might happen early, and it might happen late. Which is perilously close to midrange's strategy.
Life in the Fast Lane: How to Get the Most Out Of Proactive Decks

When I read David's definition of "Threshold: Murktide-style decks," I realized Modern's UR Murktide deck indeed exists in a class of its own. That's not to say such an archetype is new. For the first time, I recognized in UR Murktide an ancient and powerful archetype thought lost to the ages, or at least to shrewd banlist management. And no, it wasn't midrange.

In my eyes, aggro-control decks are interactive creature decks that disrupt opponents with either spells or permanents. They are also fair, meaning they don't cheat on resources and do win over multiple combat steps. There are two types of aggro-control decks: midrange and tempo. Whether an aggro-control deck falls under one category or the other depends on the order in which it tends to deploy its threats relative to its disruption.

Midrange: Disrupts opponents, then establishes a clock.
Tempo: Establishes a clock, then disrupts opponents.
Death’s Shadow of Doubt: Exploring Aggro-Control

UR Murktide plops down Dragon's Rage Channeler or Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and disrupts opponents until they're dead. Smells like tempo. But I do think the confusion is justified, in the same way it was for Shadow decks when they were fresh on the scene.

There was an error retrieving a chart for death's shadow

For starters, and this was also true of Shadow decks, Murktide has decent reversibility, meaning it can assume the role of its archetypical opposite when necessary; in this case, that means being midrange, or disrupting fast starts from opponents with cards like Unholy Heat and Counterspell before getting proactive with its own threats. However, where Shadow plays as a midrange deck by default, Murktide plays as a tempo deck by default. So far, so good.

Another more insidious reason is that David is spot-on about Murktide's true motives, and those don't jive with those of a thresh deck. Thresh must protect its efficient little clocks if it wants to win. I agree that DRC and Ragavan, blue-chip thresh bodies though they may be, are frequently "throw-away threats" here. Unlike thresh, UR Murktide doesn't shed so much as a tear when they do bite the bullet.

Rather, it actually plays into UR's plans for these creatures to be dealt with, as in fact they must be if one is to survive the game's first phase, since their corpses go on to feed Murktide Regent, which promptly ends the game unanswered. And how difficult is it to answer a Regent? Well, here is a patently terrible card that people play multiples of in Modern sideboards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Run Afoul

Okay, UR Murktide is not thresh, exactly. Even though it looks like thresh and often plays like thresh. Because it has Murktide to fall back on. What is it, then? And what's so broken about that?

Nameless Inversion

"Thresh" was a name I came up with for "Delver decks" because I was irked by calling them Delver decks. After all, not all decks running 4 Delver of Secrets actually fit under the strategic umbrella I was referring to (some were too aggressive; others too midrangey), and what if those that did fit stopped playing their namesake one day (as recently happened)?

Welcome to the Jungle: Mandrills in Modern

But it wasn't the first name I used for the archetype. Initially, I called them "grow" decks, after Alan Comer's fabled Miracle Grow deck, with which there is significant overlap in both spell and deck composition. My breakout competitive deck was the so-named Monkey Grow, which recovered from the Treasure Cruise ban by mixing Hooting Mandrills, Disrupting Shoal, and Simic Charm into a classic Delver-Bolt shell.

Give that article a click (it features both decklists) and note the striking structural resemblance between Miracle Grow and Monkey Grow. Despite their apparent similarity, though, the two decks employ different strategies to actually win. And their power levels couldn't be more disparate. Monkey Grow never fully caught on despite my own humble successes with the deck, while the original Miracle Grow defined a format and changed deckbuilding forever. As it so often does, the difference lies in a single card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gush

I stopped calling Delver decks "grow" and started calling them "thresh" as soon as I came to realize that grow decks are their own separate thing. Delver decks are usually not grow decks. Miracle Grow, however threshy its components on paper, earns the grow label not with its cards but with its strategy, or the way it counts on winning its games. So does Gro-A-Tog, which notably looks nothing like a Delver deck, but generally wins in the same fashion as Miracle Grow.

Delver decks can be grow decks, though. When they are, these decks tend to rule their format and then eat a ban. That's not Delver's fault. It's because at critical mass, grow is a strategy so broken that nothing in Magic has ever been able to keep pace with it.

Veteran readers will notice that "thresh" is a new name I've given to what I used to call grow decks. [...] "Thresh" more accurately reflects an important aspect of these decks: that they'll happily throw away cards in exchange for a tempo advantage, and closely budget their resources (especially mana) throughout the duration of most games.

Conversely, many of Magic's most famous grow decks, including the fabled Miracle Grow and the combo-control slanted Vintage powerhouse Gro-A-Tog, possess built-in ways to recoup card advantage at little cost à la Treasure Cruise (frequently, via Gush), which Thresh decks lack. In hindsight, the only true grow deck Modern has seen was the Cruise-featuring URx Delver.
Death’s Shadow of Doubt: Exploring Aggro-Control

The Meaning of Grow

Thresh, so named for Legacy's Canadian Threshold, eventually runs out of resources; its creatures eventually become outclassed. That's why it's crucial to win within a specific window against most decks (as David put it, turns 5-8). Grow suffers no such limitation. It can play an uncompromising thresh tempo game. And then, when it gets low on resources, it slams Gush and refills on cards. Now it's got a new Quirion Dryad; a new Werebear. And those shiny new creatures seal the deal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Young Pyromancer

As mentioned in the above quote, we've had one such deck in Modern. Players could take out its early creatures, and indeed needed to or they would lose. But when they did, the deck would slam Treasure Cruise and refill on cards. Then it would have a new Delver of Secrets; a new Young Pyromancer. Of course, opponents wouldn't magically have the new removal spells needed to keep up.

In playtesting with Maxim, I learned to truly appreciate and understand the absurd power level of a deck that could play aggressively when pressed but was perfectly content to take the opponent into the lategame and bury them in card advantage, even against dedicated control decks that thought they should own the lategame. You see, the correct way to play this deck was not as an aggro deck. Instead you used your creatures to occupy your opponent’s attention and resources early in the game while you set up to profit from drawing a lot fewer lands and having free card drawing later in the game.
Carsten Kotter, "Gro History and Current Legacy"

And now, we have UR Murktide. Ragavan and Channeler run you over unless you trade resources to slow its aggressive starts. Your reward for playing along? It slams Murktide Regent. And here's where things differ slightly from our previous examples, since Murktide is not a draw spell. There is no new Ragavan; no new Channeler. It's turn four in 2023; what good is drawing into a 2/1 and a 3/3 anyway? Instead, there's this 8/8 with flying. You can't block it. You can't Push it. You can't Heat it. It will kill you in one or two turns.

Murktide doesn't look exactly like the grow decks we've come to memorialize, reason being that once you zap its weenies and clear Level 1, it's not filling up on free cards. Instead, it's landing a threat that is actually worth those free cards. And you are losing all the same, because Murktide is still grow, and grow is still broken.

Appraising Murktide Regent

That last claim might need some defending. Is Murktide Regent really worth those free cards? How many cards is it worth? Gush offers two for no mana; Cruise offers three for one mana. Regent offers ??? for two mana. I find that when it comes to assessing individual cards, it can pay off to compare them with known quantities.

Consider StifleNought, a decades-old Legacy deck that continues to put up results today. That deck wants to combine Stifle (which is a playable Legacy card in its own right) with Phyrexian Dreadnought (which isn't) to cheat out a 12/12 trample body that closes out the game in short order. It can be built in a tempo shell, with other cheap threats to divert from this purpose, or a midrange one, generating value with engine cards while it assembles its combo.

Casting both halves of the StifleNought combo, like Regent, costs two mana, making it a great point of comparison for assessing the Dragon. I do think that a 12/12 with trample is a bit better than an 8/8 with flying, but taking into account that this is Modern and Regent is immune to both Fatal Push and Prismatic Ending, I'd much rather have the blue guy. So let's call their bodies a wash. Solving for Regent, then, here's what you get for your two mana and a card.

Count 'em: three cards, including a combo payoff good enough to buoy its own Legacy strategy for nearly 20 years (whether that explosive reliability is worth a .5 shall remain up for debate). You get the huge, evasive body on board (Dreadnought + Stifle). That's two. And you get them "entwined" on a single spell, which is also worth one card: instead of drawing the two pieces with your two draw steps, you draw Murktide and another card, here represented by Reach Through Mists.

Thought of this way, Murktide is actively better than StifleNought—no more assembling the combo, and a free card to boot, for the same mana investment. (Fun fact: some StifleNought lists have taken to running Murktide Regent themselves!)

Here's another point of comparison:

Three cards again. You could find two copies of Hooting Mandrills with your one Expressive Iteration. Certainly, you might be quite happy to rip eight trampling power for two mana off the top of the deck. But Murktide triumphs: here's eight flying power for that same two mana, plus an additional pick off the Iteration. And as a bonus, you're delving six cards instead of ten, a graveyard sale close to half off.

So... spend one card, get three cards. Sound familiar?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Cruise

It's turn five, and our opponent has weathered the initial onslaught of one-drops. By this stage, UR Delver would have drawn its Treasure Cruise and be primed to cast it for one mana, or "basically free." We are likely to have found our massive Dragon. And the way both players have navigated the game all but ensures that it will come down for two mana, or "basically free." A one-card investment that essentially yields the two-card StifleNought combo, netting a card in the process of fielding a game-ending threat.

The grow deck is designed to lead the game to this exact place. Grow accesses its overpowered spell not by ramping with mana dorks and rituals, or by painstakingly finding all the Tron lands, as many lesser decks do; that would cost cards and time. Instead, it gains access doing what the other lesser decks are happy to call their whole gameplan: by putting opponents on a clock with the format's most efficient attackers. And then it takes over the late-game for "basically free." Ain't that just like a birthday? With grow, you have your cake and eat it, too!

Grow? In Your Format? Here's What to Do...

Beating grow is simple enough: you slug through the one-drops and counterspells and advantage generated by Expressive Iteration along the way, and then you have Run Afoul or hopefully a better card like Leyline Binding for the Regent, and at the same time you get your gameplan online and popping before the enemy can pull ahead again with another Murktide or EI. Simple, but a lot of work. And while it's definitely possible, it's not so feasible that UR Murktide can take one month out of a whole year off from being the unequivocal best deck in Modern by the numbers.

When I say grow is broken, I mean that players cannot reliably self-regulate the menace. Just as Merfolk running Relic of Progenitus and Chalice of the Void back in the day was not enough to displace Cruise-powered UR Delver, Elementals packing Run Afoul won't unseat UR Murktide from its throne.

Historically, the only sure-fire way to deal with the best grow deck has been to ban its enabler, or the card that single-handedly allows it to pull far ahead once opponents have successfully traded off in the early game. Otherwise, the second-best grow deck will rise to claim the title of format boogeyman.

This is a principle Wizards seems to understand. That's why they banned Gush in Pauper, and restricted it (what seems like permanently this time) in Vintage. And Treasure Cruise (pretty much everywhere). And just this month, Expressive Iteration in Legacy (two mana for what I see as 2.5 cards, given the sorcery's selection aspect).

Our choice is to ban Expressive Iteration, as the card quality and quantity it provides allows Izzet Delver to easily adapt to stay on top of any changes in the metagame.

In addition to removing a generally strong card, our hope is that by removing Expressive Iteration, we reinforce Izzet Delver's historical strengths (efficient one-for-one exchanges) and weaknesses (lack of sources of card quantity) in a way that leaves the deck more vulnerable in the metagame.
MARCH 6, 2023 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT

While official banlist announcements don't come out and say "grow is broken and this card enables a grow deck," the pattern is pronounced and consistent. I think Wizards probably sees it more along the lines of "tempo decks become broken when they have easy access to a stream of cards," which doesn't account for the whole tempo vs. grow gameplan nuance we laid out earlier, but does hit at the heart of how grow's superiority as an archetype routinely manifests itself in competitive settings.

Grow being broken explains why UR Murktide has enjoyed statistical outlier status in Modern for a record-breaking one-year period. The deck has dominated not via the endless strings of Top 8s we saw with Cruise-fueled Delver, but through an unshakeable throttle of the data. That makes it all the more suspicious that Wizards apparently doesn't see any issues with Modern.

They Must Take Us for Werebears

As with the last update, Modern continues to be in a healthy spot, with plenty of different viable archetypes and a relatively flat spread among the top decks' metagame shares. Izzet Murktide is currently the most popular archetype in competitive play, but not by a large margin, and the deck isn't showing a concerning win rate.
MARCH 6, 2023 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT

It could be that since UR Murktide is deploying Murktide Regent and not a literal card-drawer like Cruise in its grow-qualifying "Gush phase," Wizards just hasn't yet recognized it as being a grow deck. Big bodies haven't been a problem in the past, whereas free cards have, although as explored in the previous section, the situation unfolds differently when the big body in question is a pair of airborne Hooting Mandrills. Murktide Regent sits somewhere between Gurmag Angler and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn.

Regardless, failing to fully grasp the strategic weight of Murktide the card is a lousy excuse for letting Murktide the deck off the hook after a year of sitting on Modern's face. And make no mistake, that is what Wizards has done with their latest announcement. So what is really going on?

My guess is that Murktide Regent is not just a card, but actually a real entity, a monster that was once a Magic player, the spirit of Alan Comer warped and distorted from years of casting powerful, forbidden draw spells. From deep in the shadows, like that giant baby in the Star Wars sequels, he runs the banlist meetings at Wizards HQ, ensuring that his cardboard likeness, the invitational card he never earned and thus was forced to scheme for, indefinitely maintains its stranglehold on the format. But I'm open to hearing your theories in the comments.

A Muddled Mixture: Competing Synegies in Shadows Draft

Posted on March 31, 2023March 31, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered (SIR) is the newest remastered set to grace Arena. It's a curated set, drawn primarily from Wizards' second Innistrad block. Most interestingly, the format cycles through a sheet of "Shadows of the Past" cards. This means each booster pack we open will include one card from that week's cycle of additions. The first week's theme, "Creature Type Terror," provides boosts to the signature tribes of Innistrad. This week is "Fatal Flashback," which means we can expect a card with flashback in every pack. You can read more about the nature of the evolving format here.

This format is a far cry from Phyrexia All Will Be One (ONE). We no longer need to be hyper-vigilant regarding aggressive threats. This isn't to say we can afford to neglect the board, but control decks can exist in this format. For those who remember the Innistrad blocks, many of the cards will feel familiar. However, this being a very different format, many of them perform differently.

Is Green the Best Color?

Veterans of original Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI) draft will notice that a number of the rarities have changed in this format. Most notably are the ones in green. Obsessive Skinner and Gnarlwood Dryad have been rarity-shifted down to common. In original SOI, these cards were very strong, and these downgrade gives the green delirium package a number of powerful payoffs. Drafting these in multiples can be a powerful route through the draft.

Additionally, one of the most reliable color pairs in the format has proven to be GW Humans. There are a reasonable number of green and white cards to help us build out our curve in the early game. While this deck lost some of its power after the rotation of last week's "Tribal Payoffs," Intrepid Provisioner, True-Faith Censor, and Courageous Outrider all provide a good amount of power to help this creature-based deck power through the late game.

Competing Synergies in a Synergy Format

One of my favorite ways to approach a draft is to get deep in a single color. For this reason, we wanted to prioritize red in ONE, as it was deep at common and the cards were extremely flexible. It is nice to know that green is strong, but our focus should be on finding an archetype more than a color. The green delirium cards don't play well with the GW Humans cards. For the Delirium deck, we want to prioritize things like Terrarion and Grapple with the Past. Those cards don't get the job done in Humans.

As we work through the draft, our decks will oftentimes look like this.

While one could say that we're positioned to be a GU deck, the truth is we have cards for a white-based Humans deck, and we have cards for a Blue-Based Control deck. There is a world where they might overlap, but we shouldn't just assume that the two colors we're seeing represents the best deck. These white cards do not want Forbidden Alchemy. In this format we're okay straddling two decks, but we don't want to play two colors just because they're open. Cohesion is important.

A pile of midrange cards is a recipe for disaster. We always talk about having a plan in draft; in this format, we should stick to the scripted archetypes or iterate off of them. Good stuff from color A plus good stuff from color B does not necessarily make a good deck.

Engaging with the Draft

If we're expected to know what archetypes are open, we need to identify the commons and key uncommons that make a deck great. We can start the deck with cards that are more flexible like Drag Under, Incendiary Flow, or Faith Unbroken. However, we want to commit to a lane that offers us some genuine upside.

UW Spirits

Spirits loses Drogskul Captain this week, but Feeling of the Dread has stepped up in its absence. Spirits wants to race, and the flashback common makes that trivially easy. Additionally, Apothecary Geist looks a little weak compared with more modern commons like Oil-Gorger Troll, but this format is not as powerful as ONE. If we're seeing these cards late, we should consider them signs. This deck wants two drops and tempo-based interaction. Often times, I'll top my curve with Faithbearer Paladin, who plays well in the archetype.

Delirium

This deck is marketed as Golgari, but since Forbidden Alchemy entered the format, we should consider blue a reliable contributor. Delirium can splash colors, as it wants to play a slower, more controlling game. Cheap removal like Dead Weight is excellent, and the Dryad makes Rabid Bite a lot better. When we build this deck, our goal should be to get Obsessive Skinner online early. We're willing to play random artifacts like Field Creeper and Explosive Apparatus, but usually we're not happy about it. Spontaneous Mutation does a far better job of getting a difficult card type in the yard.

Blue-Based Spells

Spells has played out like a control deck more than I expected. It can kill fast with Mercurial Geists, but we're better off prioritizing good interaction, and value based creatures. Rise from the Tides is everything we hoped Spider Spawning would be. We shouldn't prioritize Take Inventory, but if we see one late, and we know we passed one early, they can be nice to speculate on.

BR Madness Vampires

This deck has been the most aggressive decks in the format. It can feel flat-out unfair to play against, however, it is also a little temperamental. It doesn't play well from behind, and it also needs to draw its cards in the right order. The best red cards are a little more open-ended. We can get into this deck by prioritizing strong red cards and finding the vampires later on. If we start off with the Vampire enablers, it's unlikely we'll be passed the Fiery Temper or Mad Prophet that we're hoping for. Start off red, get 'em dead. Start off vamps, end up damp.

GW Humans

This deck is deep at common and even cards like Guardian of the Pilgrims plays nice with our aggressive starts. Intrepid Provisioner continues to impress as a powerful curve topping threat. Additionally, this deck makes good use of combat tricks, so the trample does a little bit of extra work.

One thing that I have noticed is that this format provides a lot of options for go-wide combat tricks. You don't need to prioritize them, and while Travel Preparation was insane in original Innistrad, it seems less effective here. Cards like Rally the Peasants, Borrowed Grace, and even some of the rares like Collective Effort are very strong but can yield diminishing returns if we don't have a high creature count.

Find Value, But Don't Dig Too Deep

A lot of the best decks in this format are able to accentuate the value that some of the commons provide. Dauntless Cathar, for example, does a nice job of trading off as a three-drop. Getting a Spirit is fine, but when we can put some equipment on that token, we start to really generate value. The same is true for Take Inventory. If we have a way to get it into our graveyard for free, then we don't have to cast the ugly two-mana cantrip. Rather, we can start the curve at a two mana Divination.

However, this enhancement comes at a price. Sometimes, as we look to accentuate some of our cards, we find that we spread ourselves too thin.

UW Spirit Human Control ft. Aura Synergies 2-1

Creatures

1 Sigardian Priest

2 Dauntless Cathar

1 Ingenious Skaab

2 Ironclad Slayer

2 Apothecary Geist

1 Drogskol Captain

1 Courageous Outrider

1 Nearheath Chaplain

1 Angel of Flight Alabaster

1 Wretched Gryff

Instants

1 Blessed Alliance

1 Jace's Scrutiny

1 Puncturing Light

Sorceries

1 Drag Under

1 Collective Effort

1 Pore Over the Pages

1 Descend Upon the Sinful

Enchantments

2 Spontaneous Mutation

1 Bound By Moonsilver

Lands

9 Plains

8 Island

One of my first SIR drafts, I first-picked the Descend Upon the Sinful and never looked back. I wanted to build something that could take advantage of a wrath, and the options presented themselves. Eventually, tension emerged between Courageous Outrider and Angel of Flight Alabaster. In short, one wants Spirits, the other wants Humans. Unfortunately, this fork led to another.

One of my best Humans was Ironclad Slayer, which gets back Spontaneous Mutation, which played like a blue Swords to Plowshares in original SOI. Using it to eat a creature in combat and buy back the aura was great value in a deck with a wrath.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ironclad Slayer

However, to get the most out of this, I needed cards in my yard; namely, instants and sorceries. To remove the instants and sorceries is to weaken the Spontaneous Mutation. To weaken the Spontaneous Mutation is to weaken the entire Human sub-package. This is to go without discussing the nature of the Spirits package headlined by the rare and the Drogskol Captain.

The deck played okay, but lost in the finals because it couldn't answer multiple Thermo-Alchemists. Perhaps a tighter build would have helped, or better draws... who knows? Regardless, this deck illustrates the difficulty of navigating this format. The synergies overlap. The colors provide multiple paths. To master SIR, we will need to find our lane, and know when the time is right to commit to one deck.

Commander Deck Full? Here’s Five Tricks to Beat the Limit

Posted on March 30, 2023March 30, 2023 by Joe Mauri

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You have a new deck idea and get to building. At first there are piles of cards, many different themes, and so much promise. After your first round of cuts, there are always cards you wish you could add, but simply do not have the space.

Even though Commander gives you 100 cards to work with, it often feels like you still need more slots. Fortunately, with some creative thinking, there are a few tricks to get the most out of your 100... or play with even more cards! Here are my five favorites.

#5: Cut Lands for Rocks, Dorks, and Utility

Because of the extremely generous free mulligan rule, you get two chances at your opening hand to dig for Sol Ring and a couple of lands or mana rocks. According to EDHREC, 20 of the top 100 cards are mana rocks. How many lands are in the top 100? Zero.

On top of those 20 rocks, there's another 20 cards that are either ramp spells or creatures that make mana. Clearly, the trend of cutting lands and replacing them with other mana-producing sources is well-known. But mana is not the only reason for these replacements.

There are several mana-producing artifacts with big upsides that are great substitutions for almost any deck. Cursed Mirror is an excellent Clone in red, and serves as a rock at worst. At best? This card doubles another doubler and makes you combo off harder and sooner.

Liquimetal Torque is drastically underplayed as a two-mana rock with a huge ability. At worst, it allows for the entire table to target a threat with artifact removal, and is a massive tool for diplomacy. But it can also be used to create combos, secure metalcraft, or even kill Illusions that die to targeting.

Staff of Compleation is a low-cost rock that can do a ton of different things or simply add mana. Savai Crystal and the like are a mana rock if you need them to be, or a new card if you don't.

Removing a few lands for a few rocks with abilities allows you to support more concepts in a deck but also fixes and accelerates you. The cost is running a few less lands. However, the potential for bad openers is smoothed out by the free mulligan.

#4: Prioritize Charms and Commands

Charms have been in Magic a very long time, and have seen play at all levels. Two currently appear in the EDREC Top 100. Few cards approach the incredible flexibility of any of the Charms or Commands, and they are always worth considering for those last few deck slots.

When you are looking to trim cards, that is sometimes the wrong mindset. Really, what you should be thinking about is how many effects of each type you need. If you can substitute an Izzet Charm as both a counter and discard slot, you have created a free slot. Charms, Commands, and other modal spells open up space for other cards while maintaining healthy counts of various effects.

#3: Make Use of Sometimes-Lands

The double-faced cards are significantly underplayed, and also an easy solution for decks that need a few more slots. Some of them, like Malakir Rebirth // Malakir Mire, have seen a high amount of play, but I think nearly all of them deserve slots in most decks. In short, you are adding a land that is sometimes a removal spell, sometimes a mana dork, and sometimes a value generator, and the cost is only half a deck slot for great options. The mythic rare DFCs are powerful spells that also can enter play untapped, so they are the freest of free includes.

DFC removal effects help free up space. Hagra Mauling // Hagra Broodpit is effectively Murder and Swamp. If Bedevil, Terminate, and Mortify are top-100 cards, Mauling is close, and those other cards can never be a land when you need one.

Bala Ged Recovery // Bala Ged Sanctuary takes my vote for the most potentially powerful and flexible DFC. How often do you need a Regrowth effect? Not that often. But when you do need one, paying three instead of two is almost never a deal breaker. Really, it's more about being able to have deck slots to support Regrowth, Noxious Revival, or Reclaim. Recovery gives you the option at the low cost of changing a Forest into a Sanctuary.

Finally, Ondu Inversion // Ondu Skyruins is a boardwipe that replaces a Plains. Eight mana may seem like a lot, but both Ruinous Ultimatum and Eerie Ultimatum make the top 100 despite being extremely difficult-to-cast seven-mana spells. Recovery and Inversion are not equivalent in power to the Ultimatums, but getting "diet Ultimatum" is sometimes good enough.

#2: Turn It Up to 11 with Companions and Attractions

While each companion imposes a restriction upon deck creation, it does not count as a card in the deck, so you get a free card! Currently, the "best" ideas for decks with companion synergy are fairly well-established. However, look to new sets like The Lord of the Rings and March of the Machines for additional ways to build around companion.

There's also the attraction deck, which does not count as part of your 100. Commonly, attractions are played in a dice-rolling archetype, as attractions give you more chances to roll. This means that you can cut the worst dice-rolling cards and instead count on attractions to do some heavy lifting.

#1: When All Else Fails, Cheat and Steal!

That's right, just cheat! If your play group is alright with silver-bordered cards, you can always access more cards via Cheatyface and the most fair tutor ever made, Booster Tutor. While this option probably won't work for all of you, it's worth mentioning.

Alternatively, there are tons of theft effects in Magic. Sometimes you do not have the right answer in your deck, but an opponent does. Decks like Xanathar, Guild Kingpin or Arvinox, the Mind Flail are not 100-card decks; they are 400-card ones! If you want to play the most cards possible, these are your go-to Commanders. But you don't have to play specific commanders to access some of the best theft effects, like Praetor's Grasp or Villainous Wealth.

Case in Point

But even if your deck doesn't feel like it needs more space, it still can be tweaked. As an example, take my mono-white partner deck with Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful and Keleth, Sunmane Familiar. One of my first concepts with the deck was to keep it very low to the ground, with casting costs up to two, but few higher than that. Because of that choice, I found workarounds by including cards like Cast Out, Eternal Dragon, Sunblade Samurai and Kabira Takedown all at the expense of land slots.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful

At first glance, all of those cards are more than two mana. But their abilities make them effectively modal removal/draw/ramp/rocks, by paying two to get a land or being a land themselves. Next, I added even more cycling lands, and even a Flourishing Fox once I saw the obvious synergy.

In the building process, I found an additional sub-theme that went well with everything I was already doing, so it was win/win! Furthermore, if the deck doesn't work out, I'm eyeing both Lurrus of the Dream-Den and Kaheera, the Orphanguard for a followup build.

Imposing this kind of "deckbuilding restriction" can actually open you up to cards you never thought you'd play that functionally expand the size of your deck. And, of course, lead to a unique and fun experience.

All the Choice in the World

While I am a firm believer that restrictions breed creativity, it's nice to know that there are so many ways to work around, bend, or completely shatter those restrictions. By including just a few key cards for flexibility and consistency, you can safely create space for more interesting cards. On top of that, there are many mechanics from companions to attractions that allow you even more game space. And there's always the route of playing everyone's deck.

Have you had a hard time cutting decks down to 100 cards? Or do you think Commander needs to add sideboards or wishboards for even more design space? Let me know in the comments. Until then, happy building!

March Madness Rooting Guide for Magic Limited Players

Posted on March 29, 2023March 29, 2023 by Robert Genuario

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Perhaps the most exciting sporting event of the year has been taking place over the last few weeks. Every March the sixty-four best college basketball teams face off in a grueling tournament that culminates in the coronation of a new champion. Bracketology sweeps the nation, and next weekend it all comes to a head in the Final Four.

The overlap between Magic players and college basketball fans is uncharted. If we have an alma mater in the tournament, or we're invested in a bracket, then we are likely rooting based on those inherent interests. After spending a weekend alternating between playing Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered drafts and watching the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, I knew what had to be done.

Today, I'll draw some elaborate and occasionally convoluted comparisons between the remaining four college basketball teams, and the Limited archetypes from recent formats that most closely resemble their playstyle, makeup, and general je ne sais quoi. Perhaps we can make a canny assessment of these teams based on their preferred playstyle and what it tells us about these archetypes.

Florida Atlantic University (FAU) as UB Ninjas

The Owls are the first nine-seed to make it to the Final Four since 2013. It is a rare occurrence to see a team win four consecutive games as the lower seed, but FAU has done it. They have an explosive offense, led by undersized attackers, reminiscent of the UB Ninjas deck from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty.

It all starts with Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin. Similar to Virus Beetle, they can attack into any defense, and leave the defender panicking. Coming at the rim puts defenders in a tough spot. Between their ability to score in the paint and pass it out to the arc, it is like trying to play around Suit Up and Moon-Circuit Hacker. This team creates a lot of scoring options for itself.

We expect an aggressive team to put up points, but what has gotten this team to the Final Four is their surprising ability to ninjitsu in for rebounds. Rebounds are essentially the basketball equivalent to card advantage. The way UB Ninjas felt like it always had cards in their hand reminds us of the way the Owls pull down rebounds. These undersized players outrebounded a number of much taller teams. Center Vladislav Goldin generates value over the course of the game like rebuying a saga. He leads the team, averaging 6.6 rebounds a game, but is a threat to score on his own.

Finally, Michael Forrest is basically a 6' 1" Network Disruptor off the bench. He's an undersized player who can assist others in scoring, and in the clutch, he's been incredible at closing out games.

University of Connecticut (UConn) as RG Oil

The aggressive scoring for the Huskies is reminiscent of the dynamic two-drops in the Phyrexia All Will Be One RG deck. Jordan Hawkins is an elite scorer and plays the Barbed Batterfist role. Conversely, Tristen Newton isn't quite as threatening a scorer but boasts a ton of versatility. He fills out the Axiom Engraver role. Finally, Andre Jackson Jr. isn't quite the scorer that the other two are. He's more physical, and a genuine leader that holds the team together. Contagious Vorrac might sound like an unflattering comparison, but the similarities are all positive. Rebounds, assists, proliferates, finds lands, facilitates a splash. The kid does it all.

UConn does a great job on offense and defense, and a big part of that is superstar Forward, Adama Sonoga. He's vigilant, plays on both sides of the court, and invalidates smaller threats like Cinderslash Ravager.

Just like the RG Oil decks in ONE, this team is great on offense and defense. They have threats up and down the curve... I mean roster. Coach Dan Hurley has been able to interact and disrupt opposing offenses and defenses alike. However, the biggest comparison this team has to RG Oil has been the way they've played in the second halves of tournament games.

Hazardous Blast earned the award for Scourge of the Format in our sunset ceremony for ONE for its ability to end games quickly. Similar to this four-mana sorcery, UConn has done a fantastic job outlasting their opponents. In the second half of games, UConn has run away with games. After half-time, they've dominated opponents 174-107. This team has looked outstanding so far, and as a proud alumnus, I'm rooting for it to continue.

San Diego State University (SDSU) as UB Poison Proliferate

Of all the remaining teams, the Aztecs are the most controlling...err-defensive. They grind out opponents and have held five of their last six opponents under sixty points. This includes a stunning victory over 1-seed Alabama and a last-second win against Creighton. Just like the Proliferate decks in ONE, SDSU's defense-first approach is seen as a liability, however, they're executing masterfully.

The stat lines for a lot of these players read like the blue low-power, high-toughness creatures of ONE. By the end of the game, it's hard to tell where the points came from. Guards Matt Bradley, Lamont Butler, and Darrion Trammel peck in for damage like Gitaxian Raptor and Ichor Synthesizer. Even though the offense is slow, they hold up to aggressive attacks. They play as though they always have the Serum Snare in their back pocket.

Finally, Nathan Mensah leads the team in blocks and rebounds. He's a critical threat that helps hold down the fort. He's a physical defender who can remove threats like a timely Anoint with Affliction. Unlike the UB decks, this team has shown a capacity to come from behind. Also unlike the UB decks, this team has overperformed. This is a group of stoppers, and they will force their opponents to play an ugly game.

Miami Hurricanes as Domain Aggro

The Hurricanes' offense is carried by a series of threats, and any of them can take over the game. Similar to the Domain Aggro decks out of Dominaria United (DOM), any of these players can be the Sunbathing Rootwalla or Nishoba Brawler that can go unmatched. In their most recent upset win against Texas, it was Jordan Miller who performed with Gaea's Might. He was perfect from the field and the foul line, ending the game with a heroic 27 points.

Their most consistent scorer all season has been Isaiah Wong, his combination of speed and power reminds us of the many combat tricks this deck possesses. This team has an explosive offense and looks to outscore their opponents. It wants to play a tempo game and finds itself in racing situations more often than not. But it's those explosive finishes that remind us of Colossal Growth or Meria's Outrider, winning out of nowhere.

This team plays with four guards, which are typically smaller players, but the Hurricanes aren't necessarily undersized. Much like the aggressive creatures in Domain Aggro, these guys are aggressive, but also stout at the point of attack. They're going to be difficult for any team to try and shut down, and veteran head coach Jim Larranaga has been to the Final Four before.

March Madness? March of the Machines? The Choice Is Yours

This weekend is a big one for college basketball. Champions will rise, and pretenders will fall. The things I love about sports bear a lot of commonalities with my passion for Magic. I hope this guide helps readers appreciate the overlapping elements between the two. They're both strategic endeavors with a million variables. Matchups are important, but so is execution. If you're a big fan, you recognize this.

Those choosing not to watch the games have Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered to look forward to on Arena. I'll be discussing the format in my regular Friday article, so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, let me know what you thought of this article in the comments. Last, but not least...LET'S GO HUSKIES!

Life in the Fast Lane: How to Get the Most Out Of Proactive Decks

Posted on March 29, 2023March 29, 2023 by David Ernenwein

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In our previous discussions of play speed, we focused on the strategic (and round time) appeal of playing slower decks faster. But playing succinctly, and precisely, is equally important for aggressive decks. This week, we'll rank the proactive decks by speed and assess how easily they can switch roles.

Paradox of Proactivity

Why is playing quickly important for a deck that's already fast? Who's the Beatdown is the foundation of Magic strategy. Making things happen is the definition of proactive, and the opposite of reactive. Just as reactive decks want to take over the game and win later on, proactive decks want to advance their gameplans and win as quickly as possible. This is how the archetype wheel has always worked.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

But it pays to go deeper. Every deck has a Fundamental Turn (FT) on which it intends to win the game, either actually or functionally. Proactive decks of all stripes of course tend to set their FT on the earlier side. However, all FT considerations are done in a vacuum, and are more accurately the Goldfish Turn. Never forget that the opponent gets a say in how the game plays out. Players instinctively know there's a difference between when can a deck win and when will it win.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

The latter is more important in actual games. How reliable is that theoretical goldfish turn in reality? The dividing line between all the proactive decks is not actually their goldfish speed, but their decision to ignore or remember the opponent's existence. Proactive decks that choose ignore will be faster than proactive decks that remember, but won't hit that goldfish turn as reliably. For all things, there is a trade-off.

Winning Windows

When I think about a deck's kill speed, I don't think in terms of a specific turn. Rather, for each deck, there is a window of turns in which they're capable of winning, and there's a spectrum. From left to right, there is an early window where the fastest decks want to win, a middle window where it's anyone's game, and a late window where the control decks dominate. I think of proactive decks as decks that intend to win in the early-to-mid windows and can win late, while reactive decks are only focused on getting to and then winning in the late window.

Everything in Format Context

This window is contextual for each matchup and format, because some formats kill faster than others. For example, Modern is a more powerful and faster format than Pioneer. Therefore, the relative turns will be different. Take a Modern aggro deck like Burn. Its win probability distributions are roughly demonstrated by this chart, whose numbers I've approximated:

*Burn can't win before turn three, reliably goldfishes on turn four, and has sufficient reach to never be completely out of a game.*

Compare with a similar chart for Pioneer Mono-Red Aggro:

*Most lists can win on turn three if the opponent shocks a bunch, but it is very rare. Wins on turns 5 and 6 are goldfishable half the time.*

Both decks are aggressive, and intend to win in their respective format's early window, which varies by format. Burn's peak win chance is on turn four. Mono-Red's turn six makes it middle-window relative to Modern, but decidedly early for Pioneer.

The same holds true if we look at control decks in Modern:

*Elementals can only actually win by concession prior to turn five.*

Versus Pioneer UW Control:

*UW can only win by concession prior to turn seven.*

Pioneer's late window is positively glacial compared to Modern's, while Modern's late window is Pioneer's middle. The point is that there is no absolute answer for what constitutes a window. The important thing to keep in mind is which window a deck is aiming for in the intended format, and make sure that it is actually able to hit that window. If the deck can't do that, it needs to change.

The key to understanding a proactive deck is to grasp not how fast it plays, but when it wants to win. Does a deck sit on the left (aggressive) side or the right (control) side? If you intend to play a proactive deck, a way to win the game must be presented early, with the intention of ending the game rather than prolonging it. A dedicatedly reactive deck that prolongs the game is control, and a deck that can shift between proactive and reactive is in the midrange camp.

Picking a Lane

Therefore, every proactive player needs to decide how much they're going to consider the opponent's actions. Assuming everyone is playing to win (or at least not lose), opponents are either trying to win first or prevent you from winning. As a proactive deck, how much does that matter, and what's to be done? All answers are valid, but an answer must be chosen. Once that answer is chosen, stick with it! The fundamental mistake I see players making is trying to inappropriately switch lanes, which leads to disaster.

A deck that has no intention of interacting with the opponent and is just trying to goldfish will be extremely fast. Every spell slot is dedicated to pressuring the opponent's life total or assembling a game-winning combination, and the goal is to interact with opposing cards as little as possible. This Pioneer Goblins deck has only six interactive spells maindeck. It knows what it wants to do, and in the control matchup, will at most bring in stickier threats.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rundvelt Hordemaster

The mistake I see many decks like this make is to try and move out of lane and become something they're not. If this same Goblins deck instead played a lot of planeswalkers in its sideboard, intending to slow down and play the card advantage game against control, it would lose more. The deck is simply not equipped to support that kind of gameplan. It's shifting its win window too far right and giving up the advantage to the control deck, which already dominates that window. Some decks can change lanes because they were already between them, but for decks on the extremes, that's a pipe dream.

Proactive Deck Spectrum

When players are talking about proactive decks, they're talking about aggro and combo. However, neither deck type is a monolith, and there are many varieties of aggro and combo decks with different intended speeds and levels of interactivity. As the decks get more intentionally interactive, they move further along the spectrum toward being reactive, and eventually the line gets blurry.

Everyone can agree on the end points, but the middle is fuzzy between flavors of proactive decks, midrange decks, and control. Things get even hairier as we zone in on specific angles. In "Death’s Shadow of Doubt: Exploring Aggro-Control," Jordan Boisvert examined the broader categories of aggro-control decks, that is to say aggro decks that incorporate interactive elements; that article left out blitz aggro, which is non-interactive, and combo, which is not an attacking, or aggro, strategy (although it does proact).

We will not leave out these decks, as the following section approaches the topic from a different angle, instead sorting the more easily identifiable left-side decks from most proactive (fast) to most reactive (slow). Ranking them in this way will allow us to more cleanly discern which strategies are capable of diluting their main plan with a reactive 180, and by how much.

Earliest Window: Target Turns 1-3

The most proactive and fastest decks are the blitz decks. These decks intend to take their opening hand and fling it at the opponent's face as hard as possible, with no consideration for holding back or later turns. If that initial onslaught can't outright win or at least get the opponent low enough to burn them out, the deck accepts defeat.

Blitz Combo: Belcher-style decks

The fastest decks in competitive Magic are blitz combo decks, epitomized by Goblin Charbelcher decks. The Legacy version is designed to win on turn one or two and won't reliably win after turn three. Modern's version is slower, but built to the same principles. It only runs interaction to protect its combo.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Charbelcher

Blitz Aggro: 8-Whack-style decks

The purest blitz aggro decks are built like Modern 8-Whack. The mana curve is as low as possible, with the intention to dump the hand right away and not worry about refilling. The threats are individually weak, but intended to overwhelm the opponent, with some reach to close out the game. If the initial surge doesn't work, the deck can't keep pace with much else.

Early Window: Target Turns 3-6

The more standard aggressive and combo decks will be found in this window. The decks are capable of early wins, but have plans in place for when that doesn't come together, and are capable of planning for longer games.

Velocity Aggro: Prowess-style decks

These decks have threats that individually put them on par with the blitz aggro decks, but have the cantrips, interaction, and card advantage to win with more than just their opening hand. Modern Prowess can get blitz-style wins, but will more often play a slightly longer game with Expressive Iteration and Underworld Breach. Hammer Time falls into this category despite not having cantrips.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underworld Breach

Disruptive Aggro: Humans-style decks

When I think disruptive aggro, I'm thinking of aggro decks that interact with their opponents as part of their aggro gameplan. The best example of this is circa 2018-2019 Modern Humans. Every card is a creature; it doesn't play any reactive spells. However, many creatures are themselves disruptive, ensuring the opponent can't interact effectively. The deck is slower than pure blitz but faster than decks with dedicated reactive spells, who must take time off from developing their board to cast them.

Velocity Combo: Storm-style decks

Similarly, the velocity combo deck can just win, but will usually need to set up first. Modern Storm is the are classic example. It's happy to blitz out a win, but generally spends time setting up and protecting themselves before going off.

True Combo: Typical combo decks

The next speed of deck is the typical combo deck. This category has no unifying theme other than they're decks that have to win via combo, and don't intend to deliberately slow the game down. Pioneer Lotus Field Combo and Modern Ad Nauseam fall in here. They might have defensive or offensive interaction, but their plan is to combo as quickly as they can.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Field

Versatile Aggro: Burn-style decks

By the same token, there are a wide variety of generalist aggro decks that are slower than disruptive aggro, but faster than actual reactive decks. Modern Burn is the headliner for this category. It intends to play straightforward aggro, but its versatile spells let it play a slower game if it has to. Lightning Bolt is just as good at hitting a crucial enemy creature as it is helping count to 20.

Tempo: Fish-style decks

Ever since Nicolas Labarre ran Mono-Blue Fish against a field of High Tide (coverage for which has been lost to time), Fish-style decks have been playing out multiple, lightly synergistic threats and then actively disrupting the opponent until the victory is achieved. Pioneer Spirits is today's representative of this strategy.

It's worth noting that Jordan previously categorized "fish" as a tempo deck that "plays many interchangeable/synergistic threats that work together to accelerate the clock or disrupt opponents, and a small number of noncreature spells." He included both Merfolk and Humans under that umbrella, and indeed they both fit. But as we're discussing speed, it's useful to split them up; Merfolk, for instance, tends to run more interactive spells than Humans, slowing down its clock, even if the deck's governing principles are similar. Fish as I'm defining it now, cf. the "disruptive aggro" outlined above, takes a less proactive approach to the same task.

Beatdown

The last grouping in the early window are the beatdown decks. These decks tend to be slower than usual aggro decks but make up for that by either playing bigger creatures or including a combo. Modern Domain Zoo epitomizes the former, and Yawgmoth the latter.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yawgmoth, Thran Physician

Middle Window: Turn 5-8

Here, the line gets even blurrier. All the decks in this window play extensive interaction, which makes them not only slower, but more able to switch towards a pure control role (even if they'd rather not make the switch, keeping them from being actual midrange decks).

Tempo: Delver-style decks

While built on the same principle of play threats then disrupt the opponent, Delver-style decks take it to an extreme by playing out a standalone threat or two and then protecting that threat. Classic Legacy Delver certainly follows this idea, as do some but not all current lists. Modern's Counter Cat is the best example available today.

Defensive Combo: Doomsday-style decks

The defensive combo deck understands that it is going to be under attack, and while it likes to win quickly, it probably won't. Therefore, it invests in Plan Bs, as well as extensive protection. Legacy Doomsday is the ur-example with all its disruption and Murktide Regent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doomsday

Threshold: Murktide-style decks

This is the point where it starts getting hard to separate the aggro from the midrange deck. While Modern UR Murktide and the very similar Legacy UR Delver play cheap threats, they're typically throw-away threats. The intention is to disrupt the opponent until it's time to drop a big threat and ride it to victory. That might happen early, and it might happen late. Which is perilously close to midrange's strategy.

Stay in Your Lane

Proactive decks need to be proactive. It is possible to switch lanes, but that's no guarantee for success. Players need to be more conscious of where their deck falls along the proactivity spectrum and adjust their plans accordingly.

Adam’s Going to Dallas! RCQ Win With NeoTraxa

Posted on March 28, 2023March 27, 2023 by Adam Cohen

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This weekend I picked up my invite to the Regional Championship in Dallas with the new hot deck on the block, NeoTraxa. As the name suggests, the deck utilizes Neoform and delve creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang to cheat out Atraxa, Grand Unifier for as little as three mana and as early as turn three. Few decks are prepared to deal with such a massive threat, and even decks with removal will struggle to answer the immediate card advantage Atraxa generates.

Key Cards

Recent Successes

Two versions of this archetype were propagated by @TandyMTG and @CaseyLancaster9 and saw significant success this past weekend. One build features additional interaction and card selection in the form of Fatal Push and Consider. The other includes Soulflayer to take advantage of the deck's heavy self-milling and Atraxa's litany of keywords. To further support Soulflayer, these builds also have Zetalpa, Primal Dawn and flex slots that can either be earmarked for Sylvan Caryatid or Striped Riverwinder. A 185-player tournament in Japan saw both versions in the top 8 with the Soulflayer build taking first place. The non-Soulflayer build made the top 8 of an NRG event with over 200 players and put two copies in the top 8 of Sunday's MTGO Showcase Qualifier.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atraxa, Grand Unifier

Metagame Considerations

Going into this RCQ, I opted for the Soulflayer build. Soulflayer functions as a secondary win condition and hedges against Necromentia effects. It also has the upside of creating hexproof and/or indestructible threats that can dodge commonly played removal spells like Dreadbore, Supreme Verdict, and Leyline Binding. Knowing the local meta, I expected a significant number of RB Midrange, UR Creativity, and Abzan Greasefang decks in this event. I knew I wanted something that was favored against small creature removal like Fire Prophecy and Bonecrusher Giant // Stomp. I also wanted something that could race Greasefang's otherwise unbeatable early Parhellion II draws. Access to Thoughtseize, Collective Brutality, and big, vigilant, and lifelink fliers ticked off all the necessary boxes.

Other popular decks like Mono-Green plan to race and can't easily interact with the combo. Tasigur lines up favorably against Old-Growth Troll's beatdown plan and it takes two blocking Cavalier of Thorns to kill Atraxa. The only route to victory for the opponent is through Karn, the Great Creator which can be managed via discard spells, Stubborn Denial, and post-board Pithing Needle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulflayer

The only matchup that concerned me was UW Control as Dovin's Veto is a massive blowout against Neoform. Six discard spells in the main deck with Founding the Third Path to flash them back seemed like enough to push threats through permission. With that said, Rest in Peace threatens to shut down the deck's entire engine and Soul Partition is a very clean answer to my normally expensive creatures.

Matchups

RCQ win with Neoform Atraxa

RB Mid 2-0
Abzan Greasefang 2-1
MonoG 2-1
RB Mid 1-2
RG Vehicles 2-0
-ID-
QF MonoG 2-0
SF RB Mid (same player as r4) 2-0
F (2 invites and top 4 split)https://t.co/8KjFNC4nIP
Shout out to @TandyMTG for the shell. @fireshoes value tag. Deck's broken pic.twitter.com/QxhC6Hkyy5
— Adam Cohen (@AdamECohen) March 26, 2023

I lucked out that my predictions for the room were more or less spot on. Multiple opponents were unfamiliar with the archetype and made suboptimal plays due to this. For example, one of my RB Midrange opponents Thoughtseized me, taking an otherwise irrelevant spell over Neoform, allowing me to combo them.

Another player left in Fatal Push post-board despite having no targets. My RG Vehicles opponent kept a hand with The Akroan War but no early or proactive plays allowing me time to cycle Striped Riverwinder, then delve it away for a hexproof Soulflayer.

The Greasefang player kept a Leyline of the Void hand without much to follow it up, giving me time to Assassin's Trophy it off chapter one of Founding the Third Path. They then cast a second Leyline, but Founding's chapter three re-cast Trophy to destroy that as well. Had they waited another turn, the second Leyline might have been more impactful.

These misplays will certainly decrease in frequency once players are more familiar with the deck, but they certainly opened up opportunities to win that I should not have had.

Decklist

Pioneer Soulflayer NeoTraxa

Creatures

4 Soulflayer

3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

3 Atraxa, Grand Unifier

1 Hooting Mandrills

2 Striped Riverwinder

3 Zetalpa, Primal Dawn

Enchantments

3 Founding the Third Path

Spells

4 Neoform

4 Thoughtseize

2 Collective Brutality

1 Stubborn Denial

4 Grisly Salvage

4 Otherworldly Gaze

Lands

1 Breeding Pool

1 Boseiju, Who Endures

4 Mana Confluence

4 Darkslick Shores

3 Botanical Sanctum

3 Watery Grave

3 Blooming Marsh

2 Overgrown Tomb

1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Ritual of Soot

3 Ray of Enfeeblement

2 Duress

1 Aether Gust

2 Mystical Dispute

1 Liliana, Death's Majesty

1 Pithing Needle

1 Stubborn Denial

2 Assassin's Trophy

Takeaways

I was very surprised by how mana efficient this deck is. The main deck functionally tops off its curve at two mana allowing the player to double and triple spell early and often. Otherworldly Gaze then gets to shine as a one or two-mana play to fill the graveyard, fix draws, and dig for critical spells. While the card disadvantage may encourage players to include Consider in that slot instead, the cantrip cannot compete with the velocity and selection Gaze provides. Looking up to six cards deep for a combo piece or critical interaction is often good enough to get the job done, and resolving an Atraxa trigger more than makes up for the card disadvantage.

Grisly Salvage digs for delve creatures and puts enough cards in the graveyard to cast them by itself. It's worth noting that between Gaze, Salvage, and Founding, incidental hate like Unlicensed Hearse and Graveyard Trespasser // Graveyard Glutton cannot keep up. The player will still be able to resolve their delve spells with ease. Unlike graveyard decks like UR Phoenix, which look to put specific cards in the graveyard, NeoTraxa cares mostly about graveyard quantity over quality.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grisly Salvage

A last-minute change I made to the list that really paid off was the addition of Liliana, Death's Majesty to the sideboard. I'm surprised a deck focused so heavily on self-mill had so few ways of taking advantage of the threats it put into the graveyard. Not only does she rebuy milled or destroyed Atraxas, but also generates 2/2 zombies to protect against edict effects like Liliana of the Veil.

I was initially worried that Stubborn Denial would be offline too often, but there were no points during the tournament that I had it in hand and it would not be able to hard-counter a spell. Going forward, I think it's correct to go down to 21 or even 20 lands for additional copies of the one-mana counterspell.

End Step

I'm pretty thrilled with this weekend's results and, barring a major overhaul to the metagame with March of the Machine, I expect NeoTraxa to be a top-tier deck going forward. As always, you can keep up with me on Twitch and Twitter for all the latest content. I'm well beyond my word count for this week, so leave a comment here letting me know if you'd like a sideboard guide. If there's enough interest, expect it in the very near future.