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We're going to take a bit of a break from bulk commons and uncommons this week to discuss something I should have written about last week, maybe even the week before. Or a month before. Ah well. Hopefully we'll go on a bit of a twist halfway through so we can use what we learn here to figure out future specs, or something like that. You won't even notice the seamless transition; I promise. If you follow me, MTGFinance Central, or Brian Dale on Twitter (You absolutely should), you may have noticed us having a bit of a light-hearted debate on the merits of Sigarda's Aid as a spec. They believed it had merit because of its low buy-in price and perceived Equipment synergies with Kaladesh being a steampunky, artifact themed block; I countered with some summarized arguments that I'm going to expand on throughout this article. While I disagree with their viewpoint on this card and theme specifically, you should absolutely follow them for some other solid specs and topics of discussion. MTGFinance Central was a strong supporter of Traverse the Ulvenwald early on, a card that showed up huge during Pro Tour Eldritch Moon.
To be perfectly honest, I'm going to assume that most of you reading this article agree with my side of the equipment debate. I put up a Twitter poll a few days ago, and 2/3 of respondents turned down the possibility. While I failed to specify the different between a full on equipment "theme" vs. "sub-theme," and didn't include Aether Revolt in my poll, I'd like to clarify now that I do reject the possibility of all things equipment in the whole block of Kaladesh. I'm perfectly happy selling Sigarda's Aid at $1 because I know that competitive players are happily willing to move them at $.50 or even $.25.
If we use Gatherer to check out the number of "equipment matters" cards in Standard before Kaladesh, there's only a couple "speccable" cards that come to mind. We're not unaccustomed to Wizards of the Coast planting themes for future blocks in the current block (Steel Overseer before our return trip to Mirrodin is the first that comes to mind), and you might have been picking up the following bulk rares since Kaladesh was announced to be the fall set this year, thanks to the Origins sneak peek into what the world looked like. Stone Haven Outfitter looked like a "maybe one day" bulk rare, and I don't fault anyone for picking these up at .10. Slayer's Plate seemed like it could have been viable if the heavy equip cost could be avoided. Cards like Weapons Trainer gave the subtle hint that an equipment deck might be in the near future, and I was picking them out of bulk commons and uncommons on the off-chance that a tier 2 Standard deck happened to emerge. Unfortunately out of all the Gatherer results for equipment, we still come up short of a real deck; it would have needed support from Kaladesh to manifest.
As soon as vehicles were spoiled, the chance of any equipment theme or sub-theme was dead. Vehicles play very poorly with equipment on either end; you either tap your equipped creature to Crew a vehicle (feels bad) or you Crew a vehicle and equip something to it, only for it to fall off at the end of the turn (feels bad). Neither outcome feels very rewarding, especially when vehicles are aesthetic equipments in their own right. Kaladesh will likely have the same number or even less equipment than other sets, because there's no room in either the mechanics or the flavor. Do you remember the last set where we had a real Equipment theme? It was Scars of Mirrodin block, and that was because we had a literal war of the world going on. There were divided factions, and both sides needed weapons to do battle with. In fact, pretty much every plane we've visited in the past seven years has had a significant conflict, antagonist(s), and/or war. Kaladesh is a breath of fresh air from life or death conflict, and I don't foresee the need for an armory of weapons. While the next set name implies conflict in Aether Revolt, it makes much more sense to convert vehicles into more weapon-like devices that still use the Crew mechanic instead of trying to make both equipment and Crew work across a draft format.
So why am I launching a Campaign of Vengeance against Sigarda's Aid? Honestly, that initial difference for the buy in cost is massive. When we get down to bulk and near-bulk specs, buying in at $.25 and $.10 are worlds apart. If you went on TCGplayer, eBay, or SCG and purchased 40 copies of Aid at $1.00, you're hoping that it triples or quadruples before you start to see realistic profits that cover the costs of shipping and fees. Traverse the Ulvenwald was run as a 4-of in successful Pro Tour decks, and it still barely meets that threshold today. On the other hand, you've had months to be picking up Stone Haven Outfitter at $.41 each from retail sites like TCGplayer. That's excluding the possibility of picking them up for quarters or even dimes (Hint; you should be paying dimes) out of the binders of your local players who cracked Oath of the Gatewatch boxes for Eldrazi.
So what's the trick to picking up Aid at a half of TCG market, and Outfitter at a dime? Well, cash is the easiest method; I'll get that out of the way right now. It's so much faster to deal in dollars and dimes instead of trying to reanimate the dead art of trading. While there are a few stalwart LGS where trading at TCG mid/market still exists, I've found it to be utterly miserable for the past few years. Offering cash dollars for bulk and near bulk rares is an incredibly effective way to help Standard players get their fix for the next set. Spike wants to spend $500 on a case of Kaladesh, but his binder is still thick with recent rares that didn't end up seeing play, because he only built Bant Company and Temur Emerge for the past six months. Send Spike a Facebook message, and let them know that you'd be happy to buy all of those jank rares out of their binder at buylist prices. You'll even drive to their house and sort out everything by price. Put that Aid in the .25 or .50 pile, and the Outfitter in the dime pile. If he wants to trade for staples to fill out his next Standard deck, ship him/her that Liliana, the Last Hope at TCG low while you swim in bulk rares. Everyone's happy.
End Step
Our podcast Cartel Aristocrats is on iTunes now! We're on episode 24 now, and I really like Jim's pick of the week for this most recent cast. It got me thinking about the quantity and power level of current Planeswalkers in Standard, and the possibility of a Superfriends deck being viable. All of the Oaths sans Nissa are currently bulk rares, which makes them easy to pick up and set aside just in case. My "pick of the week" for this article is in the similar vein of being a bulk mythic, but has a lot of potential upside thanks to being an Eldritch Moon mythic with lower than normal supply.
I'm a big fan of trading for these at $1 if you're moving out of cards like Sigarda's Aid, and I'm very happy buying as many as I can for $.50-.75. While there is risk in buying at above buylist prices, I'm hoping that its' low supply will help keep buylist numbers higher than an average bulk mythic. As always, thanks for reading! I'm happy to discuss finance or any questions on Twitter at @Rose0fthorns, or in the comments section below.
Most players will skim these sites for information looking for a few quick takeaways. Jund is the most played deck, Dredge is falling, RG Breach is rising, Affinity, Infect and Burn are still Top 5, etc. This is perfectly fine, and can help you prepare for an event or inform some sideboard changes if you need quick information at a glance. But, if we’re being completely honest, these metagame charts are inherently flawed, and almost useless for anyone looking to gain an edge.
New spoilers are exciting for me, but probably not for the same reasons as they are exciting for you. I don’t play Standard, and don’t pay much attention to Standard, so when it comes to evaluating new cards for Standard all I have to go off of is my analysis of the card on rate alone. I couldn’t tell you one thing about Standard, other than that I know Collected Company is nuts because of Twitter and Eldrazi is unfair because of my dad. As a result, when spoilers come out I get to log my opinions of the cards based on rate alone, and then see if they show up in Standard once they’ve been put through the Context Test. Liliana, the Last Hope on rate alone doesn’t hold a candle to Liliana of the Veil, so unless she sets up some excellent synergies I can feel confident she won’t see much play in Modern. As for Standard, context is everything. If creatures are similarly sized to where -2/-1 is affecting a large percentage of boards, if there are a lot of x/1’s she can kill, if her minus ability has synergistic power in the format, I can definitely expect her to see lots of play.
I thought things were going to look different!? Again, they’ve done the work for us, it makes no sense to start from square one. New cards coming into eternal formats always have to answer one basic question: “What are they bringing to an already established format?” Unless said new card is completely broken on rate alone (looking at you, Treasure Cruise), it will almost always slot into an existing deck rather than sponsoring a new archetype by itself. Yes, corner cases exist, but these are most often combo decks (Death's Shadow Zoo getting Become Immense, Living End getting Living End, Retreat Combo getting Retreat to Coralhelm). For everything else, we need to gain an understanding of what decks are currently being played in Modern, and whether said new card fits into any of these decks by either A) supplanting an older, less powerful option; or B) providing a new threat or shoring up an old weakness.
You can't often profitably trade with this likely 4/4 and you're quickly put to the test of emptying your hand before Liliana of the Veil does it for you.
Listen, I know Sam is a great Magic deck builder but there's no way I'm going to write "4x Manamorphose" on my deck sheet instead of Goblin Guide. My plan is to change the maindeck and sideboard to support Bedlam Reveler for better game against the grindier GBx decks.
Path to Exile
Kataki, War's Wage
Skullcrack
Destructive Revelry
Deflecting Palm
Theoretically if you wanted to hammer them they can't cast their best spells (or Matter Reshaper) through a Blood Moon, though at that point you're just adding more variance to your draws. I choose to accept that sometimes you get them and sometimes they get you.
This is the matchup I'm asked about most commonly, and the impression of many seems to be that it's a bad one. It's not. In fact, I would argue that this is among the better matchups for my configuration. Patience is key, and as long as you play with Liliana of the Veil in mind you should be fine. It is their only card that has power level near that of Snapcaster Mage, and leveraging your Mages and counters against Liliana while Snaring and Terminating their threats will more often than not be a recipe for victory.
There aren't really maindeck cards that are especially bad in the matchup, it's just that strategically they are significantly advantaged.
If they have Electroylze, forget about it. Post-sideboard it's all about winning counter wars and making land drops. As such, Cavern of Souls is great here. Be patient, picks fights that matter and that you can win, and don't tap out if your opponent is likely to punish you for it. I think you're favored in a three-game set, but unless your opponent is less skilled in Modern blue mirrors it's not by much.
Death and Taxes is really strong against Legacy Delver, but Modern Hatebears doesn't execute at a disruptive level anywhere near that of Legacy D&T. The matchup in this format is solidly positive for Delver, and if they don't have an Aether Vial it's hard to imagine losing.
Play conservatively, but be mindful of what combinations of cards can kill you in 1-2 turns and how to best play around what they might have. Some players seem to think that an aggressive Delver plan is how you win, but Delver is actively terrible here, largely because in order to block a Goblin Guide you need to flip it first. Aggressively interacting is how you win this matchup, and getting Delver Searing Blazed or just having Delver versus a creature-heavy draw is how you lose.
They'll often have Tarmogoyf post-board, though savvy players can actually leave themselves without any two-mana spells to catch with your Snares. Killing the creatures is the plan, and as such cutting Snares is generally fine considering that your strategy makes their Temur Battle Rages pretty bad. Watch out for Mutagenic Growth, and don't be afraid to use red removal as sorcery speed to play around it. Aim to kill all of their stuff more so than to race, though either plan can get there in many of the games.
This matchup is solidly positive, though Etched Champion can get you. Spell Snare counters almost all of the cards that make their deck playable, and Kolaghan's Command is gas here. This is yet another matchup where you might consider Fulminating, though on the draw they are definitely slow, and you have a ton of game here anyway.
Much like Burn, this matchup really puts the relative skills of both players to the test. Speed is good, but this matchup is all about attrition. Kill everything, and avoid casting removal spells in combat as much as possible. It doesn't feel great to take any infect damage, but if you go for a Terminate in combat and they just Vines of Vastwood their creature it's often game over. In most games you can fetch untapped duals indiscriminately, but be mindful of just dying to Noble Hierarch. Mana efficiency is all that maters. Your spells are better than theirs, but you have to survive long enough to turn the corner.
Kevin Jones thinks this is the deck's worst matchup, though I think it's fairly even, maybe slightly favorable. They punish hands that stumble, but their weakness is that the majority of their cards are terrible. You don't have enough stuff to bring in to take out all of your counters, so I leave in Spell Snare. They're always trying to Spreading Seas you, they don't always have an Aether Vial/Cavern of Souls, and often they have to commit two creatures in a turn to be competitive, which causes them to play into it anyway.
Always leave up Spell Snare for their two-mana spell if you have it, even at the expense of casting a Delver. Counter their stuff so they can't get off the ground either to naturally Valakut you or play around Mana Leak[/card], and find a way to pressure them while doing so. Don't play two Delvers into [mtg_card]Anger of the Gods, and don't counter an Anger that only kills one Delver. Save those counters for their business spells unless you're very counter-heavy or have an avenue to kill them in short order with Countersqualls and Bolts.
Now here's a matchup where I know you want Fulminators. This deck is stupid and playing against it is the worst. A lot of wins come from the fact that you're way better against their bad hands than other decks. You can also catch their Sylvan Scrying with a Spell Snare[/card] or their [mtg_card]Expedition Map with a Spell Pierce post-board, which can conveniently also tag Karn Liberated[mtg_card] or [mtg_card]Ugin, the Spirit Dragon in a lot of spots.
You probably can't win without graveyard hate. As I said above, you just bank on the field both not to pick up Dredge and for those who do to get smashed by those packing hate. Locally, this deck barely exists, but if it did I would just pack four Leyline of the Void. Theoretically you can play Magic with two hate pieces, but your actual gameplan is so bad that I would just play the card that you know wins if you want to use any sideboard space at all. Just take the opportunity to go get lunch if you get this pairing.
This isn't a very popular matchup, but I included it because more information can't be bad, and also to illustrate that graveyard hate is unnecessary. Living End and every other non-Dredge graveyard deck relies on casting spells, which means that you have game against them. Sometimes you can actually just get them by hitting a couple creatures with Thought Scour, but most often you're able to prevent Living End from ever resolving.
You don't see a ton of this one anymore, though even if you did it's another great matchup. Collected Company is a strong card, but this deck isn't generally great against Mana Leak. So you just have to one-for-one their creatures and counter all their Companies. This is the matchup where Magma Spray is more than just another one-mana removal spell, as it wrecks Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks. You're great at disrupting their combo, and they're great at getting punched in the face by Delver.
This deck got a lot better with the addition of Dwynen's Elite, but I still believe it is very winnable. You don't have haymakers, and despite wanting Snares for the Elites you can't afford having them because of Cavern of Souls. Luckily, they play Collected Company and Chord of Calling to make it so your Mana Leaks are always live. Use your removal spells wisely, and don't bolt Llanowar Elves aggressively. They have lords and Nettle Sentinels that you want to kill. Be mindful of your life total and carefully calculate when you want to start attacking, and you should be fine.
These matchups get less and less popular all the time, but you're bound to run into Ad Nauseam or Pyromancer Ascension from time to time. Basically, all of these matchups are removal-out, counters-in matchups, and all of them are solidly positive. Easy!
This is why data analysis exists. You have a massive table full of numbers and you cannot understand it. So you simplify and turn those numbers into an analytical readout of only a few numbers that describe the big set. Only then can you make meaningful decisions.
One option is to play no direct hate and instead play more removal. If you're going that route Supreme Verdict is probably the best option since Affinity sometimes plays Spell Pierce. A second is to play some general anti-artifact cards. Of the options available Wear // Tear is best due to flexibility. It pairs well with Snapcaster and can sometimes get an enchantment. The third is targeted anti-Affinity hate. We're in white so that means Stony Silence, which nicely shuts down a lot of that deck. The only problem is drawing it too late.
have are the Paths and Anger of the Gods. Anger is very good, but if they play around it or we never see it we have to race to win, and we are not good at racing. We need to prepare.
The most important cards in the matchup are all instants, so we really want Dispel. Actually winning the game in the face of lots of answers can be tricky, so in the past Keranos was used to win the mirror. The proliferation of Nahiri makes that a shaky strategy these days.
The normal strategy against Burn is lifegain. We already have a bunch of that maindeck between Baneslayer and Lightning Helix. Therefore we should focus on how Burn will board and counter that. Additional Skullcracks and Path to Exile are common, so we should have answers---the best one is Dispel.
Wrath of God was the traditional way that control beat aggro. These days we one-for-one and then two-for-one using Snapcaster Mage. As long as we are able to do that we should be fine.
Path Wurmcoil Engine. If they start dropping Eldrazi we're sunk. Sometimes we can race the RG decks, but they're very fast and redundant. It's not likely.
Apostle's Blessing to Mutagenic Growth growing creatures out of Bolt range. And then there's Bogles with its obnoxious hexproof creatures.
The one deck that I would actually put thought into is Lantern Control. We really struggle against that deck, which is not surprising. Lantern was built to beat slower fair decks. Dedicated Affinity hate really hurts it, but we don't have a lot of that since we're relying on our maindeck plan to win most of the time. Since we are vulnerable and Lantern does sneak in when you aren't looking, I definitely want an out or two.
To Modern Storm, Ascension has never been more than a workhorse, a tool to leverage towards other purposes.
Pyromancer Thing points to Thing in the Ice's potential when you just buckle down and build a deck from scratch dedicated to it. In this case Pyromancer Ascension is the perfect companion, because both cards pair with the same supporting suite to win the game singlehandedly. If you imagine this deck as a glorified burn deck, where instead of drawing extra copies of Lava Spike we endeavor to make copies on the stack, Thing in the Ice is a sort of weird double or triple burn spell. In addition to smacking the opponent around for 7 points (I'm assuming we're timing our spells intelligently to counter their disruption, or when they're tapped out), it also buys time to draw more burn by resetting the board.
What I find interesting isn't necessarily the build itself, but more so the process through which the Modern community has approached Thing in the Ice. It's been a slow and halting gestation period, but the card seems to reveal more of its secrets every day. Even the great and feared Birthing Pod underwent a period of wild experimentation before everyone figured out the optimal Melira Pod build. If that card had a more proven track record (and certainly offers more payoffs than Thing in the Ice), it nonetheless took time for the community to learn how best to use it.
