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Shadows over Innistrad in Temur Delver and GRx Moon

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I’m sure I speak for many when I say my favorite part of spoiler season is paging through new cards and looking for ones that fit into my pet decks. The leaked Shadows over Innistrad spoilers revealed Invasive Surgery and the delirium mechanic. As a Tarmogoyf enthusiast, this keyword spoke to me on a competitive and an ethereal level.

abberent researcher art

Reading the delirium cards spoiled thereafter felt like sacrificing a bunch of Clue tokens. My life had real meaning again. A purpose deeper than mulliganning into Sol lands.

In this article, I’ll discuss possible additions to Temur Delver from Shadows over Innistrad and explore how one particular card, [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy], stands to redefine the way I build Modern decks.

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Updating Temur Delver

Since Wizards’ card design over the last decade pushes increasingly for midrange archetypes, big, splashy creatures take up the higher rarity slots. Indeed, if we look at any of Modern’s midrange decks, they’re full of rare cards. Consider recent additions to Modern midrange. Siege Rhino, Kolaghan's Command, and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet are all rares. Even Eldrazi has hardly any commons and uncommons.

PonderTempo, on the other hand, is an archetype defined by mistakes. Ponder, Lightning Bolt, Delver of Secrets… these underestimated commons represent leaps in applied power that not Wizards or anyone else could have accounted for.

All that text to say when I scroll through spoilers looking for Temur Delver additions, I vest great hope in the common section. That’s where we found the last few big cards we got: Hooting Mandrills, Stubborn Denial, and Treasure Cruise. Shadows breaks the trend by not giving us a great common, though - instead, it gives us a great rare. [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] offers us serious midrange bulk while weaving effortlessly into our tempo plan. It makes our sideboard more robust and helps us take on our worst matchup, BGx Midrange.

Temur Delver, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Enchantments

1 Seal of Fire

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Simic Charm
3 Mana Leak
1 Tarfire

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
3 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

3 Traverse the Ulvenwald
3 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Blood Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Destructive Revelry
1 Natural State
1 Pyroclasm

Diversifying Card Types

The first change here from my previous versions involves adding more card types to support delirium. Having a wider variety improves the odds of milling a delirium enabler with Thought Scour. If we played two Tarfires, the second wouldn't add to our Tarmogoyfs; Seal of Fire does. I love Seal against creature-based combo decks like Abzan Chord, since it lets us tap out and have a burn effect ready to break up a combo.

Sideboard toolbox

The "Traverse package" takes up some sideboard slots in this deck, and those slots are very competitive. Consequently, I tried to keep the toolboxing to a minimum, only including creatures that address specific weaknesses or matchups very efficiently.

  • Magus of the Moon: Replaces Blood Moon #3. I like having a searchable one, and some decks - Abzan, Sultai, Ad Nauseam - can't easily remove the creature.
  • Izzet Staticaster: Guns down dorks for a whole Izzet Staticastergame, and significantly counters Lingering Souls. 1/1 Spirits can prove very annoying, since they team up to trade with Delver or just chump Tarmogoyf for four turns.
  • Snapcaster Mage: I currently have Tiago in the mainboard, but he's definitely one of the deck's weaker cards. Whether in the main or the side, though, Snapcaster needs a spot in this deck. It would be wrong to omit him from a Traverse toolbox package. Having the ability to search up Lightning Bolt or Stubborn Denial is frequently game-winning.

Maintaining the instant and sorcery count

Against attrition decks, Temur Delver boards in a huge pile of threats for air like Thought Scour and Gitaxian Probe from the main. A high threat density helps us keep the pressure on attrition strategies, but an unflipped Delver doesn't offer much pressure by himself. One problem I sometimes run into post-board against Jund and Abzan is that my Delver rarely flips with fewer than 23 instants and sorceries in the deck, a number I consider low but acceptable. [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] solves this problem by increasing threat density while helping us hit that magic number.

Temur Delver Omissions

The following cards I considered for Temur Delver, but ultimately decided against.

[tippy title="Invasive Surgery" width="330" height="330"]Invasive Surgery[/tippy]

A conditional counterspell that, like Spell Snare, never has "nothing" to hit. Against BGx, Surgery takes discard spells and maybe a Maelstrom Pulse; against blue anything, it counters Serum Visions. That said, Surgery's no Spell Snare; Snare hits the best cards in Modern (Tarmogoyf, Confidant, Snapcaster Mage, Terminate, etc.), while Surgery just counters small set-up cards in most matchups.

Invasive SurgeryI love the idea of Surgery, but don't think Temur Delver needs a souped-up Envelop at the moment. Stubborn Denial simply covers more bases, and while Surgery always hard-counters, we have ferocious enough to ensure Denial usually gets the job done.

I won't run Surgery now, but that doesn't mean I never will. If [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] decks start popping up in spades, or if linear combo decks like Living End and Scapeshift have strong showings after the April announcement, I can see Surgery making the cut in the sideboard.

[tippy title="Skin Invasion" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy]

The possible upside on this card is so great that StarCityGames has it preordering for a dollar a copy, and foils at five. [tippy title="Skin Invasion" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy] definitely has one of the coolest designs in the set, and gets my vote for the best. But is it playable?

For Temur Delver, Invasion looks great on paper. It's at once a removal spell, a buff threat, and a delirium enabler. Imagine the best-case scenario: you play Tarmogoyf. Your opponent plays Dark Confidant. You give Bob a [tippy title="Skin Invasion" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy]. Bob suicides into your Tarmogoyf. You get a 3/4 [tippy title="Skin Shedder" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy]. Icing on the cake: once the Shedder's lived a fulfilling, Bolt-proof life on the battlefield, his corpse grows Tarmogoyf from the graveyard.

Skin InvasionOn to the bad stuff. For Invasion to work, it requires a lot to go just right. First of all, it will only do anything against creature decks - this card starts off a pseudo-removal spell, and only becomes [tippy title="Skin Shedder" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy] with a host. Among those creature decks, it can only enchant certain creatures to provide results. Invasion does nothing on a Blighted Agent, or on Glistener Elf when opponents have pump spells to grow their attacker past Tarmogoyf; the aura looks equally silly on Memnite or Ornithopter when those creatures can tap to Springleaf Drum before combat. (Same deal with Noble Hierarch and other mana dorks.) Besides, we would rather spend our precious removal spell slots on something not called Memnite against Affinity.

The nail in the coffin for this card is that our opponent having a creature we want to kill still isn't enough for [tippy title="Skin Invasion" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy] to do anything. We need to kill that creature to get the Shedder. It has to be small enough for Lightning Bolt to handle, or smaller than a threat we already have on the board. Generally, if we have a big creature on the table, we would rather our cards be removal or permission to maintain board advantage. A two-card-combo aura is not what we want to draw here, especially since it necessitates leaving Tarmogoyf or whoever on defense.

My verdict: Invasion asks us to jump through too many hoops. Its two sides also don't mesh. In most matchups, we either want a lot of creature disruption, or we want extra threats. Invasion is an extra threat that also forces us to pack ample creature disruption.

[tippy title="Autumnal Gloom" width="330" height="330"]autumnal gloom : ancient of the equinox[/tippy]

Hexproof Hooting Mandrills is already a major improvement over [tippy title="Skin Invasion" width="330" height="330"]skin invasion : skin shedder[/tippy] for Temur Delver. Gloom at least doesn't force us to stretch our mainboard thin with removal and threats against the attrition decks we want extra creatures for in the first place. Those opponents often turn on delirium for us with their Thoughtseizes, Lilianas, and Decays, and as long as Gloom doesn't get walled by Tasigur or Tarmogoyf, he'll give attrition decks an incredibly hard time.

Ancient Of The EquinoxOne problem with Gloom is its high casting cost. We can only really play it against BGx Midrange, since it's harder to count on drawing three lands in a timely manner against anyone else. Additionally, the enchantment does literally nothing without delirium, so we can't run it against linear decks that refuse to interact with our creatures. It's also too slow in those matchups to make a lasting impression; even if it comes down on time, tapping out on turn three against combo decks like Storm is asking for it.

The biggest strike against this card is that we have better options available. Huntmaster of the Fells is another late-game threat that shines against attrition decks, but also has applications against most flavors of aggro. It's hard to make a case for [tippy title="Autumnal Gloom" width="330" height="330"]autumnal gloom : ancient of the equinox[/tippy] in the sideboard if we haven't already maxed out on the Human Werewolf. Gloom might also be worse here than [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy], which fetches and lets us cast Tarmogoyf for the same amount of mana. Traverse has the huge upsides of also finding us bullets, flipping Delver, and fixing our mana early on.

[tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]
1_thing[/tippy]

Young PyromancerThis card was hyped into oblivion for blue decks of all strains, including Delver. I was even a believer at first, and tested Thing in some UR Delver builds for a few days. But the creature always underwhelmed me. The best card to compare Thing to is Young Pyromancer. Thing's big advantage here is its immunity to Bolt, but Pyromancer boasts a functional immunity to edict effects. Beyond that distinction, Thing gives pilots nothing in return for removing just three ice counters. If opponents remove Thing before it flips, we're left sobbing. For his part, Pyromancer starts recruiting an army. He also swings in a topdeck war. I don't know how squeamish you guys are, but drawing Thing with no cards in hand against BGx would give me night terrors.

Another issue with Thing is its exclusivity. We can't play Thing and Pyromancer together, because Thing bounces all the tokens. We also can't pair it with Delver of Secrets, because we'd have to transform the Human Wizard again. Lastly, bouncing Tarmogoyf incurs a huge tempo loss. The only Delver creature that synergizes with Thing is Snapcaster Mage, but he does so best in a non-Delver shell. Thing does look splashy on paper, and it may show up in Modern, but I seriously doubt this card will see play in grow decks.

[tippy title="Moldgraf Scavenger" width="330" height="330"]Moldgraf Scavenger[/tippy]

Earning more of an honorary mention than anything, Scavenger is our "fixed Tarmogoyf." Except it's more like a nerfed Tarmogoyf. At least they gave it a completely irrelevant tribe - "Fungus!" Flavor win?

When I pined for a fixed Goyf last week, I meant a Goyf that wouldn't always be strictly worse than Modern's posterboy. If we have delirium, our true Goyfs are definitely bigger than this guy. And I wanted to swing with two 4/5s at once. I know, I know - pipe dreams.

Updating GR Moon

green sun's zenithAs far as my analysis goes, [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] is the big winner from Shadows over Innistrad. And the card doesn’t just show promise in Temur Delver. My other go-to Modern archetype, GRx Moon, is arguably even more of a Tarmogoyf deck.

Once upon a time - specifically, about eight months ago - I brewed an illegal Modern GR Moon deck around Green Sun's Zenith. With Dryad Arbor, Zenith acted as a dork on turn one to accelerate into turn two Blood Moon. But the real reason so badly wanted to play with the card is it let me run eight Tarmogoyfs. With Traverse, 8Goyf finally becomes a reality.

GR Moon, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Avalanche Riders

Enchantments

4 Utopia Sprawl
4 Blood Moon

Sorceries

4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Faithless Looting
3 Boom // Bust

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Tarfire

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Stomping Ground
2 Forest
2 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Shatterstorm
1 Tin Street Hooligan
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Stormbreath Dragon
1 Burning-Tree Shaman
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Spellskite

Dreams Come True: Introducing 8Goyf

TarmogoyfIn a deck that consistently grows Goyfs to 7/8 and beyond, having access to eight of them makes us... well, Eldrazi. In the past, I've employed Sword of Light and Shadow, Siege Rhino, Goblin Rabblemaster, and Stormbreath Dragon as Goyf's supporting cast, and none ever held a candle to the spiky dude. [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] might not ramp with Arbor, but it gives us the extra Goyfs we've always wanted. It also searches Magus of the Moon, meaning we now play ten functional Blood Moons.

Mainboard toolbox

As with the Temur Delver sideboard package, GR Moon's mainboard lacks the space for a full-on toolbox. I've included more specific bullets in the sideboard, and allotted three mainboard slots for the cream of the crop.

  • Grim Lavamancer: Isochron-Bolt against small aggro decks like Infect and Chord. Shoots annoying mana dorks that defy our Moons. We can get Lavamancer early enough to make a difference with Faithless Looting, which immediately turns on delirium in this deck.
  • Scavenging Ooze: Generic graveyard hate and a concession to this deck's horrible Grishoalbrand matchup. Ooze is also randomly helpful against Snapcaster Mage, Lingering Souls, Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, Kitchen Finks, and Tarmogoyf.
  • avalanche ridersAvalanche Riders: I've advocated for a set of Stone Rain in the GRx Moon sideboard since I first developed the archetype. In two-color versions, I prefer Boom // Bust, as we don't mind playing four colorless lands in Darksteel Citadel. Boom is cheap enough to earn mainboard slots. Since I started testing land destruction in the main, I’ve loved it. Having the option to blow up a lone basic wise opponents fetch out can be game-winning. Thanks to Traverse, we can now search for a Stone Rain effect on command.

Sideboard toolbox

Most of these choices are self-explanatory, so I won't describe them all. In anticipation of some confusion, though, I'll say that Gaddock Teeg is very easy to cast between Hierarch and Sprawl, and turns off Through the Breach, Ad Nauseam, and the ubiquitous Disrupting Shoal.

We have lots of space in the sideboard for bullets, and I can see splashing other colors for certain creatures if the need arises. Traverse makes this deck very adaptable.

The Journey Awaits

When I proposed a Temur Toolbox shell last week, I didn’t mean to imply Modern will become a smattering of tricolor Goyf decks. But as [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] continues testing well for me in Temur Delver and GR Moon, I increasingly doubt interactive Modern decks won’t integrate the card on some level.rest in peace Running Tarmogoyf isn’t a huge “cost,” as evidenced by the format’s many interactive lynchpins that run him already.

Format changes tend to inspire other changes, and I won’t explore all of Traverse’s possible effects on Modern today. But one thing I’m anxious to watch unfold is the amount of graveyard hate present in the format. Cards like Rest in Peace and even Relic of Progenitus do a real number on decks packing delirium cards and Tarmogoyf. Luckily, I don’t need to lonelily theorize for long. Shadows comes out in a matter of weeks, and we’ll find out for sure how delirious it makes Modern deckbuilders!

Taking Grixis Delver to 10th at the Super IQ

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This weekend was sunny, warm, and, here in the Northeast, the first real weekend of spring. The weather seemed to be an indicator that the Eldrazi Winter is coming to an end, and Magic players gathered at Black Moon Games in West Lebanon, New Hampshire, in order to celebrate their loss, or ride the deck into the sunset.

Forked Bolt art

I, on the other hand, decided to use this weekend as a final statement against the Eldrazi menace, and the warped metagame we have all come to know over the past few months since the Gatewatch failed and the Colorless Catastrophe was released upon unsuspecting players. Packing my trusty Grixis Delver, which I have been playing and fine-tuning since a dismal performance at Grand Prix Pittsburgh in November. I made the final tweaks, came up to the IQ from Vermont, and buckled in for the last battle before the impending bans.

But enough setup and prose! You’re here for a tournament report, and a report you shall get!

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The Grixis Delver List

I finished in 10th at the Super IQ, missing Top 8 due to tiebreakers, with the following list:

Grixis Delver, by Jeff Case (10th, SCG Super IQ West Lebanon 3/28/16)

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler
1 Young Pyromancer

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Thought Scour
3 Kolaghan's Command
2 Terminate
2 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
1 Izzet Charm
1 Electrolyze
1 Murderous Cut

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Gitaxian Probe
2 Forked Bolt

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
1 Darkslick Shores
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Surgical Extraction
2 Dispel
2 Thoughtseize
2 Vampiric Link
1 Vandalblast
1 Countersquall
1 Rakdos Charm
1 Dreadbore
1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Grixis Charm
1 Rise // Fall

This list was put together mostly in online testing (which, as we all know, is infested with Eldrazi), and local paper events. The Northeast U.S. is pretty well-known for playing a lot of aggressive decks, and thus my list is tuned to beat them.

You’ll notice the lack of land destruction, be it Fulminator Mage, Blood Moon, or Molten Rain.  Call me crazy, but it was entirely intentional. Moon is too much of a double-edged sword, and Fulminator is just a turn too slow to really be of any help against the Eldrazi. Instead, I decided to go for versatility in the sideboard, and to use a combination of discard, hard removal, and my favorite gender-neutral existential nightmare, Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver. I could go on all day about specific card choices, but I’ll get more into some of that during the report.

The Tournament

41 people registered for the tournament, so it was six rounds of Swiss with a cut to Top 8. My last IQ had about half the amount of people, and I managed to squeeze my way to a 4th place finish there, so I was feeling pretty good as I sat down across from:

Round 1: Matt - Bant Collected Company (Win 2-0)

My opponent led on Temple Garden into Noble Hierarch, so there were a few different angles his deck could come from. Either way, I quickly Forked Bolted his Hierarch and his face, and the game was on. His deck ended up being similar to the Knight of the Reliquary/Retreat to Coralhelm strategies that popped up a bit pre-Eldrazi, but featuring maindeck copies of both Reflector Mage and Meddling Mage! Game 1 was over pretty quickly due to an early-flipped Delver, and my being able to successfully cast a Gurmag Angler to block his Loxodon Smiter.

DispelSideboard:
-1 Thought Scour
-3 Gitaxian Probe

+2 Dispel
+1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
+1 Dreadbore 

Probe isn’t fantastic against creature decks, especially on the draw, and I tend to pivot into a more midrange shell post-board.

Thankfully, Game 2 was over even faster than Game 1; my opponent stumbled on lands, and I resolved an Ashiok on turn three and proceeded to tick up for the entire game. My opponent was forced to Path his own creature in order to hit his third land drop, and Ashiok essentially gained me close to 8 life over the course of multiple attacks. Matt had also brought in his own Dispels, so I was quite glad to have brought in mine. All in all, an easy matchup, and great start to the day!

Round 2: JJ - U/W Eldrazi (Loss 0-2)

Ah, the enemy. I wish I could say that the games were close, and that I put up a valiant effort for the Battle for Modern, but this wasn’t the case. His hand had the perfect curve in Game 1, and my Forked Bolts and Delver of Secrets never looked more impotent. He lost a single point of life in the first game, and so with hardened resolve, I moved on to sideboarding.

ThoughtseizeSideboard:
-3 Gitaxian Probe
-1 Izzet Charm
-2 Spell Snare

+2 Thoughtseize
+1 Dreadbore
+1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
+1 Rise // Fall
+1 Grixis Charm

Whenever I bring in Thoughtseize, I always take out Gitaxian Probe. The combined life-loss is always relevant, and instead of spending two life for just a card and information, I’ll gladly expend a black mana and two life to take away one of their cards. Similarly, Izzet Charm has very few targets in either of the non-looting modes, and Snare hits very few cards period in the Eldrazi matchup. More removal, discard, and a Grixis Charm to answer any Worship shenanigans, alongside killing a Thought-Knot Seer, had my deck shift gears into a more controlling build.

TerminateMy opening hand was perfect in Game 2; Thoughtseize, Snapcaster Mage,Terminate, 3 lands, and a delve threat. I led on Thoughtseize, taking a Reality Smasher and leaving my opponent with lands and an Endless One. Unfortunately, he drew Thought-Knot Seer and took my Terminate after I had Snap-Thoughtseized him on my turn, leaving me with little to do as he proceeded to draw and cast a second Reality Smasher. Soon after, the game was over.

There was very little I could have done in that match. The Random Number Generator just wasn’t on my side. I probably could have left up Terminate in case JJ drew Thought-Knot, but the odds of that happening were 4/51, or about 7.8%. Still, the enemy may have claimed me, but I remained in the game for Top 8!

Round 3: Frank - Jund (Win 2-1)

He led on Swamp-Thoughtseize, so I had him pretty much pegged on some form of BGx. We battled over a very close Game 1, but I unfortunately ran out of removal, and he killed me with a Raging Ravine.

Rise FallSideboard:
-1 Izzet Charm
-1 Electrolyze
-3 Gitaxian Probe
-1 Thought Scour (on the play)

+2 Dispel
+1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (on the play)
+1 Dreadbore
+1 Rise // Fall
+1 Countersquall

Jund is the other Modern deck I have spent quite a bit of time playing, so I was very familiar with both sides of this matchup. By removing the Probes and not bringing in Thoughtseize, I mitigated my own life loss while bringing in hard answers and options to fight the grind with Ashiok and Rise // Fall. Countersquall is there mostly for Liliana and any other non-creature haymakers they might have post-board, and Dreadbore is just Terminate #4.

I kept a very risky opener with just a single land, a Delver, a Dispel, and some cantrips. Although I didn’t hit my second land until turn three or four, my opponent had only a single Terminate with which to deal with my Delver. My Wizard naturally flipped on turn two, and I was able to Dispel Frank's removal. Combined with the life-loss my opponent faced from his own Dark Confidant, the bug finished off Frank, and it was off to Game 3! Bonus points: I cast the same, singleton Rise twice: I Ashiok Nightmare Weaverbounced his Dark Confidant and recurred my dead Snapcaster Mage, then used that Snap to flashback Rise and return Tiago and my dead Tasigur to my hand. Achievement unlocked!

Game 3 This was easiest of the match - another early-flipped Delver into a smattering of removal spells and a few Lightning Bolts. I did not have Ashiok while on the draw, and my opponent Thoughtseized my Rise // Fall on his first turn due to the advantage it gained me last game. Turns out I didn’t need any of it! 2-1 record so far, and geared up for the 4th round!

Round 4: Gian - Grixis Delver (Loss 0-2)

Gian is one of the people from my game store in Vermont, and I knew his 75 before the round started. It was unfortunate we had to do battle, and my luck didn’t improve. In game one I fought tooth and nail, but I ended the game with only a single Scalding Tarn left in my deck, alongside 30-odd spells. Turns out the person who draws all of their lands loses in the Delver mirror!

CountersquallSideboard:
-1 Izzet Charm
-2 Mana Leak

+2 Dispel
+1 Countersquall

His build is a hybrid of Grixis Control and Delver, with Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek in the main, and a full playset of Terminate and Go For the Throat in his 75. I decided to shift to the aggressor, and lowered my curve, bringing in efficient answers for his instant-speed removal while removing the more expensive counterspells.

Unfortunately, I kept a solid one-land opening hand but never drew the second. I will admit I probably should have mulliganed, but being the aggressor and a card down while on the play is a pretty bad spot to be in, especially considering the abundance of mana in the previous game. Alas, the odds were not in my favor, and I suffered my second loss of the day. Gian played well, and I wished him the best of luck in future rounds.

Round 5: Anthony - Living End (Win 2-0)

My opponent mulliganed to five in our first game, and after quickly putting him on Living End, I plowed ahead for the win as he never drew a cascade spell. Anthony spent most of his time cycling his creatures while a Gurmag Angler and Delver teamed up. Not much to say in that game.

Rakdos CharmSideboard:
-3 Gitaxian Probe
-2 Forked Bolt

+2 Dispel
+1 Rakdos Charm
+1 Countersquall

I don’t like to bring in the discard spells while on the draw against Living End: if they don’t have a cascade spell in-hand, you’re essentially just helping them. The countermagic is much better, and Charm either clears a graveyard or buys you extra damage. It even kills Architects of Will in a pinch!

My opener featured a trio of Snapcaster Mage, a Countersquall, and lands. Perfect. Not perfect for my opponent was his lack of a cascade spell yet again. Anthony cycled creature after creature, and cast only a Simian Spirit Guide and a Beast Within, which never resolved. Living End is already a pretty good matchup for Delver, but it’s especially good when your opponent doesn’t get to cast their namesake card.

With this win under my belt, I was still in the running for Top 8, but I had to win my next round. Most of the other X-2s also had to lose.

Round 6: Collin - Elves (Win 2-1)

Collin was one of the other people from Vermont who came down to the tournament, and was the person who beat me at our own local IQ in the semifinals. I have to admit I was ready for vindication. I knew he was on Elves, but unfortunately, my first hands were miserable, and after a mulligan to five, Collin stomped all over me. My life total never changed, because he never declared an attack until it was well over lethal.

Izzet StaticasterSideboard:
-3 Gitaxian Probe
-1 Electrolyze
-2 Mana Leak

+1 Grixis Charm
+1 Rise // Fall
+2 Dispel
+1 Dreadbore
+1 Izzet Staticaster

The two life is extremely relevant against Elves, while the information is not. Similarly, Thoughtseize is just paying two life to take away redundancy, so it stays in the board. Otherwise, answers to Collected Company and Chord of Calling came in the form of Dispel, while Rise // Fall and Dreadbore came in to fight on the dual axis of removal and discard. Izzet Staticaster was to quickly clean up a mess of X/1 Elves that would inevitably hit the table, and Grixis Charm was there to fight any Rest In Peace nonsense: the delve creatures are quite important to the matchup.

Forked BoltGame 2 had a rough start, and even though I mulliganed to six, I scraped my way to a very, very close win. Our life totals were both 1 before I was able to attack for lethal with a duo of flipped Delvers. One flipped early in the game, got in a few hits, and then a second one came down around turn four to finish. This game really underscored the importance of a clock in the Elves matchup.

Game 3, I did nothing to my sideboard, and found myself in the same situation as I had at our local IQ - trying to stay alive, in the same Game 3, against the same Elves player. The fates finally smiled upon me, and I opened with a Forked Bolt into a Tasigur into a Snap-Forked Bolt. This was enough pressure and disruption to ensure Collin never gained his footing. He did cast a Collected Company late in the game to try establishing a board, but hit only two Heritage Druid. With that, I found myself at a 4-2 record, anxiously awaiting results to see if I could squeeze into the Top 8.

Going Forward with Grixis Delver

As you probably have figured out from the article's title, I did not make the Top 8 cut. The two people I lost to had both lost their Round 5, and Gian had also lost his sixth round. JJ, my other loss, made it in as the third seed, but that was not enough for me to make it in on just 12 points. Thus, I walked away with only a playmat and a free month of StarCityGames Premium.

Thing in the IceLooking forward, I can safely say Eldrazi Winter seems to have ended. With the impending ban announcement next week, Spring will have finally arrived, and with it, a whole slew of new cards from Shadows Over Innistrad. I am most certainly going to stick with Grixis Delver in this upcoming unknown metagame, as I expect it to look quite a bit like the pre-Oath of the Gatewatch metagame. I think my sideboard changes were correct, and although I never cast a few of those cards, and although I only boarded in 11 of my 15 across the matches, that was entirely due to pairings; no Affinity, no Burn, no Lantern, no Fish. They'll get their chance next time. That said, I’m not sure how much Shadows is going to add to Delver, because I’m not entirely sold on Thing in the Ice. Only Future Jeff has the answer to what it’s going to look like!

Thanks for reading! I know Grixis Delver isn’t the most popular deck out there, but I think it’s an excellent choice if you put the hours into it, and it really favors tight gameplay. May your Local Game Stores be Eldrazi-free, and may your pet decks do well! I hope mine will, someday.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for March 30th, 2016

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 29th, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Mar29

Flashback Draft of the Week

This week the ten guilds are now all represented in Ravnica block draft with the addition of Dissension (DIS). The last set features the blue-white guild Azorius, the red-black guild of Rakdos, and the blue-green guild of Simic.

At this point, if you haven't gotten the hang of drafting with the powerful karoo lands and the signets, then I suggest skipping the format as the multi-colour craziness gets amped up with the complete block.

Also, be sure to read up on the Guildpact draft primer written up by Oraymw at this link, and the Ravnica: City of Guilds draft primer at this link. If they complete the cycle, I'm sure the Dissension draft primer will be just as useful.

Modern

The key thing to keep in mind this week with Modern is that the Banned and Restricted announcement will go live on Monday April 4th. The Wizards of the Coast (WoTC) website typically updates just before 11 am EST, so if you have some free time, it can pay to be sitting at your computer and reacting to the news before the bots do.

After the banning is announced, the market will react quickly. Staples from all non-Eldrazi decks will see higher prices in the short term, and the banned card (or cards) will see a steep decline in price.

Almost undoubtedly the market's first take will be incorrect and an overreaction. Speculators would do well to sell any excess cards into any price spike, as well as to look for potential long-term targets in the banned card. With Eldrazi showing up in Legacy, any short-term drop due to a banning in Modern will eventually get erased by interest from Legacy players.

If WoTC throws us a curveball and bans some other card in addition to something from the Eldrazi archetype, be sure to avoid cards from the impacted archetype. For example, if Mox Opal is banned, Affinity will come under selling pressure.

Standard

Sets of Magic Origins (ORI) briefly dipped below 120 tix this week, dragged down by the price of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. This card dropped more than 30% from its high of over 90 tix all the way down to 60 tix. It has rebounded on speculative buying over the weekend and now sits at 70 tix. This type of price action is striking but not unprecedented. Look for further analysis on this card in the Trade of the Week section.

Elsewhere, some buying interest has shown up for Khans of Tarkir (KTK). As the price of Standard playables has come down, value has started showing up elsewhere in this set. We can see the result by the rise in price of the junk mythic rares from this set such as Narset, Enlightened Master and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, which are both around 2 tix now.

This is evidence that a bottom has been reached, and with the valuable fetch lands in this set, I wouldn't expect significant further price drops on KTK. Only a significant drop in paper sets or redemption sets going out of stock would lower the price floor on KTK going forward.

The other rotating set, Fate Reforged (FRF), has very little value in comparison. Do not expect junk mythic rares from this set to reach a similar price as those from KTK. Speculators and players should only be targeting staples from this set with eternal applications such as Monastery Mentor, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

Standard Boosters

FRF and KTK boosters have taken another big hit this week, with the former dropping to an all time low of just over 1 tix and the latter down to 2.5 tix. Both of these have the potential to be a decent target for speculators and players.

As always, the price is what matters. For FRF, prices in the 0.5 to 0.7 tix range are considered to be good long-term value. KTK has further to go to reach a decent buying range, but 1.0 to 1.2 tix is considered a safe price range.

Players who can put these aside for the long term, with an eye to a KTK-KTK-FRF flashback draft queue down the road, should sock a few draft sets away during SOI release events.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. This week I was watching the price on Jace, Vryn's Prodigy as it tumbled from 90 tix all the way to 60 tix. A 33% drop in a little over a week can occur for a number of cards, but for a high-priced format pillar like Jace, this type of drop is very noticeable.

Fortunately, if you've watched the MTGO market like I have for a number of years, you may recall a similar event from a few years ago. Check out the chart below on the New Phyrexia mythic rare Sword of War and Peace.

swordwP

Before the banning of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic, Sword of War and Peace had played a key role in the dominant Caw Blade deck. The following season saw a decrease in its pedigree but it continued to see regular play in Delver as well as other archetypes.

In January the price rose to over 40 tix, but Dark Ascension release events caused many players to sell their copies for tix in order to play with the new cards. It dropped substantially at the end of February 2012 to below 30 tix, a drop of about 30% from its high of 42 tix. After the dust had settled from release events, players realized the Sword was as powerful as ever and the price advanced to new highs, nearly touching 50 tix.

The price of Jace has been moving in a very similar fashion. Have a look at the chart below, where I've drawn bounds on the price channel we've seen so far in order to illustrate the longer-term trend. If Jace were to continue to be a format pillar in Standard, then a rebound to over 90 tix is quite possible, based off of how the price of Sword of War and Peace behaved in February and March of 2012.

jace

 

On Thursday, in the midst of the price drop, I noticed that MTGO Traders' listed buy price of 64 tix was 2 tix higher than Goatbot's sell price of 62 tix. Although it didn't look like the bottom had been reached yet, in this case I decided to take the available arbitrage, so I ponied up my tix with an eye to buying from Goatbots and reselling to MTGO Traders.

It turns out that MTGO Traders was fully stocked, so they were not actually buying any copies. With the price of Jace still in decline, this looked like it could turn out bad for me, but if we were close to the bottom then it would turn out okay. I decided to come back the next day and see where prices had moved to then.

On Friday, prices were still lower, with copies available for 57.5 tix. I sucked it up and bought another playset at this price. Fortunately, on Saturday morning it looked like buying interest had started to creep into the market, as there were fewer copies available at good prices. Now I was satisfied that in and around 60 tix was going to be the bottom, and that my initial purchase at 62 tix would turn out to be fine.

Writing this after the weekend, it looks like a bunch of speculators have moved into the market and driven up the price back to 70 tix. At this time, I think there's a 75% chance that it returns to over 80 tix over the next three months.

If Jace, Vryn's Prodigy continues to be a pillar of Standard and a madness deck ranks as one of the best decks, then the price could make a push to 100+ tix, which would be the first card in Standard to reach that price level since Jace, the Mind Sculptor breached that level before being banned.

The Advantage of Other People’s Money

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Hello QS readers! Welcome to my first article for the site. Some of you may know me as an admin for the MTGFinance Central Facebook group, where I would typically post content. Well, I’m thrilled to now be a part of the QS team and community (still an admin for the FB group)! I'm excited for the opportunity to write with the team, and thank you for taking the time to read. As always, let’s chat about your thoughts in the comments.

With that quick intro out of the way, let’s dive right into….

Other People’s Money (or OPM)

“The legendary investor Leon Levy always told me the best business in America was investing other people’s money.” – Robert Lenzner; Forbes

QS readers tend to cut to the facts, so rather than elaborate on my background in Magic, I’ll tie it right into the topic of this piece. My first foray into MTGFinance actually began with no money at all- or rather– none of my own money. I purchased my very first MTG investment, several near mint Revised Underground Seas and Volcanic Islands, using a $1,000 credit card promotion I received in the mail. The offer consisted of 0% APR and no fees, for one year. At the time, I had enough cash in the bank to actually cover the credit, so I knew my investment was protected should something happen to the cards or their value. More importantly, the plan was that I would use this line of credit to purchase cards with the intent of reinvesting their dividends through the year, as a means of establishing a foundational base of capital to work with, while not using a dime of my own.

I was, in effect, using other people’s money to finance my MTG investments.

**NOTE** - Before I continue, I am NOT advocating that you pick up the next credit card offer you can find and utilize it for MTG investing. This is simply an anecdotal example to illustrate the concept of Other People’s Money. Please do not put yourself into debt to invest in Magic. It can be very dangerous to your finances, particularly if you do not have a clear plan for yourself. 

The concept of OPM is not new in traditional investing. Simply put:

OPM leverages third party financing to alleviate personal investment risk.

Utilizing other people’s money is very popular in real estate, where buyers minimize outlay by putting money down for a property loan for a percentage of the purchase price, then use investor financing for the remaining balance. Spread over multiple pieces of property, the buyer actually nets more ROI than if they had used only their own capital. Asset managers on Wall Street make millions strategically handling other people’s money. Debt, unsecured loans and even credit cards are all forms of OPM. Most of you have probably financed a car or had a student loan- that’s OPM in its simplest form. Often, there is a cost associated, usually in the form of interest or fees, but not always. For example, if a daughter’s parents give her an additional $15 in allowance to start a lemonade stand, she is utilizing OPM.

How does this tie in to MTGFinance? Well, for myself, that “free” line of credit allowed me to invest in eternal cards that I could potentially sell or trade down for a profit. For example, let’s say I purchase a near-mint Dark Confidant at TCG low, which is currently $35, using OPM. I then trade down that Dark Confidant at a premium for Standard cards, we’ll say at a rate of 20%. TCG Mid for a Modern Masters Dark Confidant is currently $42. With the trade down premium, our trading power for the Confidant is now $50. That $35 in third party financing is already yielding a 20% trade return. No speculation involved.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Confidant

Now we have to factor in paying back that principle to our OPM lender (the credit balance). We can attempt to sell our new Standard cards, or we can take one step deeper to mitigate our risk. Utilizing Trader Tools during our transaction, we notice that Dragonlord Ojutai has a spread of 13%, buylisting for $10.50 currently, and Ojutai's Command at 21% for 1.50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Ojutai
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ojutai's Command

Let’s make the following theoretical trade across TCG Mid values:

Give

Dark Confidant : $50 (w/20% trade down premium)

Receive

4x Dragonlord Ojutai : $48

1x Ojutai's Command : $2

Total Buylist Value: $43.50

We have just earned a near 20% profit margin, in cash, all using other people’s money. Wash, rinse and repeat, reinvesting those returns each time and over the course of a year, you’ve got a small pool of capital all built from someone else financing your work.

On a slightly larger scale, commission dealers adeptly maximize other people’s resources. If you have ever seen a dealer who sets up shop in a local hobby store, selling on commission, they are utilizing other people’s resources to lower their own cost and risk. They leverage OPM - in this instance the store front, client base, lights, glass card case, etc. - at a modest cost (sometimes a sales percentage to the store, or sometime a flat commission) to minimize their own risk exposure.

But, as I encouraged earlier, this is not an endorsement to max out credit cards to purchase MTG investments! Nor can we all be commission dealers. And, unfortunately, the job of "MTG Asset Manager" does not exist - though it would be interesting to hypothesize what such a role would look like.

So can the concept of OPM be applied to your day-to-day Magic trading?

Absolutely.

Vendor Credit as OPM

Vendor buylist credit bumps are an incredibly powerful mechanism in MTGFinance and often under-utilized. They’re also an excellent form of OPM. When you receive a 30% buylist credit bump from Card Kingdom, for example, that vendor is “giving” you 30 cents of their money on every buylist dollar you trade in. For every $100 you trade, CK offers you an additional $30 if you convert to credit. This is a clear example of OPM at work. The popular argument against vendor credit is that a stores retail price is typically far above the total value of the buylist amount plus credit, netting a loss. However, this is not always true. In fact, there are many gems that vendors have for sale at or near TCG Low pricing. For example, Flooded Grove Expeditions are a hair less than 10% higher at Card Kingdom than the lowest retail near mint price on TCG.

There was an error retrieving a chart for flooded grove

If you manage your collection, specs and trades, keeping an eye on spreads with Trader Tools, you can use that 30% OPM to bring your trade values closer to retail of your purchases, having vendors subsidize many, if not much, of your trades. Additionally, if you spread that 30% across multiple smaller buys, your earning potential grows even more. In a sense, the vendor is now your investor. They’re offering you 30% to do the legwork of finding solid deals, and sometimes charging a fee with slightly higher (though not always) costs for product.

Trade Binders as OPM

images-2If you view the secondary trade market through the lens of a large pool of money being circulated, anytime you trade at any premium, you are earning and using OPM. While abit more abstract than store credit, the additional value you gain through the trade is essentially other people’s money working for you. Conversely, when you trade against a premium, the additional value you offer is your money working for another person in exchange for the more collectible or less volatile card. Whenever you have a successful spec that earns you a profitable trade, or sell a card at release-hype pricing, all that additional value is a form of OPM. This is why trading into profits from successful specs is always the best approach, as this is giving you the perpetual benefit of other people’s money continuing to work for you. Holding on to specs is letting that money potentially slip away.

Conclusion

The trick to OPM is finding ways to maximize it to your advantage. Buylist credit is the best way to do this, as it is effectively an interest-free bonus that can be used to help fuel your portfolio (and doesn’t need to be paid back). Carefully playing into thin spreads allows you to acquire singles near buylist prices, then turning the additional credit into real cash as you move it into valuable cards near lowest retail cost. Trading eternal cards into Standard cards at a premium allows you additional access to other people’s money, as you can either sell into profits or move them into more OPM through buylists. Trading successful specs accomplishes the same. You also have the option of taking on risk by using OPM for speculation. That's riskier, but when successful, adds a nice bump to the pool of other people’s money at your disposal.

I hope this article offered you a new perspective on MTG risk mitigation. Though ostensibly simple in theory, the concept of Other People’s Money offers a powerful shift in perspective. When you begin to see added value as a form currency, you can look for creative ways to have it work for you. Just as real estate uses OPM through private investors to reduce risk and increase returns, so can it help you minimize your MTG outlay.

Thanks for reading, and let’s discuss more in the comments!

Insider: Hot Picks in Shadows Over Innistrad

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We are so close to Shadows over Innistrad that I'm in the shade! The new set looks absolutely fantastic and I can't wait to have some of these cards in my hands at the prerelease. I love the Gothic horror theme and all the monsters and ghosts! Who doesn't love a good ghost yarn? And, with all the clues and investigating going on I'm pretty sure this block is going to have all the epicness of an episode of Scooby Doo.

C'mon Scooby, won't you be our eighth for draft? No? Will you do it for a Scooby Snack? Anyways...

So which cards should you try and get first? If you are looking at preorder prices the first thing you'll notice is they're very high. By now you know how these things tend to play out---most prices typically start out high and slowly trickle down as the majority of cards don't immediately find homes. Demand lulls, and things settle down.

In fact, even most of the cards that do find decks tend to gradually lose value. So, what is the point of speculating on a new set when the majority of the cards come out of the gate overpriced because the demand is so high?

Well, the trick is to find the few cards that actually are underpriced or have some room to grow. We can try and identify these cards by looking for spells that are powerful and likely to see play going forward.

Typically, one makes the money on the lower priced rares and not the flashy mythics. The mythics are already expensive just based on hype and demand. In order to keep these high prices they will have to earn their keep. Most won't and the few that do end up being important will be hard pressed just to keep their opening prices.

Every now and then we have a $20 mythic that gradually grows up to be very expensive. In order for this to happen the card has to be insane across Modern and Standard. Possibly, into Eternal.

Relentless Dead

relentlessdead

Scooby Doo would not enjoy this card. G-G-G-G-GHOST!!! Unfortunately, while Shaggy and the gang would have been doing a comical double-take, this terrible zombie would have literally eaten them alive.

Good stuff.

If any card has a "shot" I'd say it is Relentless Dead. However, it is asking a lot to assume this card will be a dominant force in Standard and Modern. I think the card will be great in Standard and passable in Modern.

At $20, I'm going to pick up my Japanese playset and hope they don't depreciate too much. However, I intend to get my reps in with this particularly interesting zombie. I wouldn't invest too hard on this card but I certainly don't hate $20 to get in with a preorder if you want them. They could rise slightly if the card is good but will surely decline thereafter.

Okay. Let's look at some of the cards that I think have potential to make some money.

Goldnight Castigator

goldnightcastigator

The only mythic rare that I believe isn't straight up overpriced. This card seems awfully powerful. Four power, four mana, and haste. Yes, the card has a drawback---and a significant one at that. But in a deck looking to close the door as soon as possible I believe this card could have a pretty significant place in Standard.

I could see the card earning a little bit if it ends up being good. And I think it will.

Deathcap Cultivator

deathcapcultivator

Another card that will likely be a Standard Staple for the next two years. Goodbye Rattleclaw Mystic and hello Deathcap Cultivator. I get annoyed at cards like this because I feel that Magic design got a little lazy. I mean, every single Standard must have a two-drop creature mana rock dork. Cool. Way to keep it fresh.

Anyways, all complaining about recycling the same ideas aside, I think it is safe to say that this card will be good just like Rattleclaw and Sylvan Caryatid before it. The price is low; I could see a case for buying in on it.

Epiphany at the Drownyard

epiphanyatthedrownyard

I've seen the range on this card going between $1-$3 presale online. I believe this card is fantastic and will be format-defining. I'm certainly interested in buying in on this card between a dollar and two dollars. I think the card could easily spike into the five dollar range if it is as good as I think it is.

However, only time will tell if an expensive card draw slash graveyard card will be. I think the ceiling is solid and that it's the type of card that will see considerable play. It is great at turning on delirium as well. I like this card at the current tag, and think it has room to grow.

Ever After

everafter

I don't think this card is apt to stay a bulk rare. There is so much self mill stuff floating around that I could see this card easily buying back an Ojutai and Silumgur (or worse) on turn six! The spell is quite powerful.

I also think this will end up being a great kitchen table type card with Commander potential. The effect is big and flashy. I'd like to pick up foil copies for this exact reason.

From Under the Floorboards

fromunderthefloorboards

I also believe this card is not a bulk rare. I think the madness on the card is quite insane. I could see this being a great finisher in Standard. I like that it has a bunch of different things, tokens and life gain, built into one card. These are exactly the kinds of incremental advantages I'm looking to get out of a control deck.

There is so much incidental instant-speed draw and discard that I could see this card actually being quite good. It isn't out of the question that pitching it to Olivia could be a thing as well...

Inexorable Blob

inexorableblob

So, Inexorable Blob is guaranteed to hit because it's the card I'm most excited to add to my Danger Room/Battle Box (LOL). So far pretty much every single card that I've wanted to add to my D.R. has ended up making pretty significant gains.

On power level I actually think this card is quite good. Solid power and toughness for the mana and the ability feels like it could get quite out of hand quickly. It is also sweet that it puts the token into play attacking.

I think this card is a strong sleeper. I gravitate toward wanting to play this card, and it might be even better than I'm envisioning now. It's my pick of the week.

~

So, enjoy the new set. It looks absolutely fantastic---the flavor, the cards, the themes and the mechanics. It all looks like a home run that I'm going to be very excited to play with. I wasn't a fan of the first set from the Zendikar block, but Shadows appears to be a much better first set offering.

The key is to look for the cards that are being undervalued---and they always exist. Don't buy into the hype on the cards that are already expensive. $40 for four-cost walkers is the sucker price. Wait on these cards if you can because they will dip. However, find the winners and you'll make a few bucks.

Insider: An Analysis of Rotational Price Drops

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Welcome back, readers!

With Shadows over Innistrad fast approaching, now seems like a great time to analyze the price drops of Standard staples after rotation.

In the Magic finance community it's an unwritten rule that Standard cards drop in price after they rotate out of the format. The reason is that Standard is the most popular format by a lot, and thus the biggest driver of demand for any given card. As sets rotate out, the "Standard-based demand" drops to zero. Sometimes this is replaced by demand based on Legacy, Modern, Vintage, Commander or even casual, but not always.

Today we'll look at some historical data to get an idea of the magnitude of this phenomenon.

For our analysis we want to focus primarily on Standard staples that never made the jump to eternal formats or Commander. These will typically be roleplayers in their respective Standard archetypes. Some fringe playability or experimentation in other formats is fine, so long as they don't qualify as staples or major roleplayers.

By doing this we eliminate additional demand potential and can focus solely on Standard impact. We also want to avoid cards that were reprinted as reprinting almost always drops prices, usually pretty dramatically.

Using these criteria, I've compiled the following list of cards:

Initially I had some additional cards on the list, but unfortunately my pricing guide didn't have data far enough back to cover them. So for this article we're stuck with cards from Innistrad forward.

The Data

Card Name Value 9 Months Before Rotation Date of Rotation Value 1 Month After Rotation Drop Comparison
Stormbreath Dragon $13.00 10/02/15 $2.78 78.62%
Nightveil Specter $10.00 09/26/14 $1.90 81.00%
Obzedat, Ghost Council $8.50 09/26/14 $2.65 68.82%
Bonfire of the Damned $27.00 09/27/13 $6.50 75.93%
Falkenrath Aristocrat $20.30 09/27/13 $3.78 81.38%
Goblin Rabblemaster $14.13 10/02/15 $3.46 75.51%
Stromkirk Noble $3.42 09/27/13 $1.02 70.18%
Geralf's Messenger $6.32 09/27/13 $1.99 68.51%
Desecration Demon $9.76 09/26/14 $1.89 80.64%
Pack Rat $5.60 09/26/14 $2.50 55.36%
Lifebane Zombie $6.79 09/26/14 $1.81 73.34%
Boros Reckoner $11.94 09/26/14 $2.56 78.56%
Rakdos's Return $4.97 09/26/14 $1.52 69.42%
Moorland Haunt $0.60 09/27/13 $0.32 46.67%

 

From nine months before rotation to one month after, the average drop for these cards was 71.71%. This implies that if you're holding any Standard staples nine months prior to rotation, you can expect them to lose almost 72% of their value after rotating out.

That is a pretty dramatic number. After doing this research I'm personally going to review my practice of picking up most playsets of Standard-legal cards. Previously I've done this as I like being able to play anything, but it represents a huge loss of value pretty consistently.

Luckily, not all cards follow this trend. I had to specifically come up with a list of cards that were only good in Standard and don't see significant play anywhere else.

For comparison, let's look at some Standard staples that did retain significance in eternal formats.

Card Name Highest Value Value 9 Months Before Rotation Date of Rotation Value 1 Month After Rotation Drop Comparison
Supreme Verdict 6.69 $5.01 09/26/14 $2.85 43.11%
Thundermaw Hellkite 38.75 $36.50 09/27/13 $11.54 68.38%
Restoration Angel 18 $16.13 09/27/13 $5.17 67.95%
Sphinx's Revelation 27.5 $20.12 09/26/14 $6.69 66.75%
Huntmaster of the Fells 33.25 $27.10 09/27/13 $6.52 75.94%
Olivia Voldaren 18.65 $12.74 09/27/13 $5.08 60.13%
Snapcaster Mage 85.25 $22.48 09/27/13 $19.98 11.12%
Liliana of the Veil 114 $24.28 09/27/13 $43.55 -79.37%
Sulfur Falls 11.45 $7.73 09/27/13 $3.99 48.38%
Woodland Cemetery 15 $8.95 09/27/13 $3.49 61.01%
Average 42.34%

 

Note that Liliana of the Veil is something of an outlier here and buoys the average significantly. If we remove her our average drop jumps to 55.86%. That's still significantly less than 71.71%. Looking at the individual cards, we see only one (Huntmaster of the Fells) actually exceeded the 72% drop seen in the Standard-only cards.

What It Means

Anyone who plays Standard competitively is aware of this drop in prices, but I hope that this data really hits home its significance. We're talking about a massive dip in value.

Note that I didn't choose the nine-month mark arbitrarily. Our current rule of thumb is to start trading off rotating Standard staples six months before rotation. The problem with that is since everyone follows the same advice, it can be tough to get in ahead of the crowd. Looking at the price graphs of these cards it was pretty clear that they started to drop at the six-month-out mark and just continued to fall up until rotation.

Now this isn't to say we want to establish a new rule of thumb because people might just shift the six months to nine months and we'd be stuck in the same position again.

But it is important to understand the losses associated with playing Standard competitively and to determine whether a card really has a chance of being eternal-playable (so it doesn't take this kind of loss). When a card seems like it's only going to be a Standard staple then it's best to move out whenever the price is high and maybe not wait for a little more.

While the price trends on Standard staples, with or without eternal playability, are still very negative, this obviously shows that one can reduce their losses by moving out of Standard-only cards whenever possible (even if it's for other Standard staples that might be eternally playable).

Some of this might seem obvious, but looking at the numbers you get a greater sense of urgency to move stuff before rotation hits. Nobody wants to be left holding a pile of cards that used to be worth 3-4 times as much as they currently are. But those of us who are big traders do still end up with a lot of these cards because we haven't tied the drop to actual numbers---and 72% is ridiculous.

The only factor I haven't discussed yet is your own personal assessment of play value. If you enjoy playing in Standard tournaments---whether they be SCG Opens, GP's or even just FNM's---it's important to understand the true costs of playing the format.

For many, this loss in value is simply a cost they want to bear so they can spend time with friends and family playing a game they love. And that's perfectly okay.

But for those who would rather trade than play, these numbers should emphasize and reinforce what we've always known. When your trading partner needs that hot Standard staple but falls a little short on their side, it still may be better in the long run to go ahead and lose a bit of value to acquire something more stable. After all, it's better to lose 10% now than 72% later.

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Investigating the Shadows Over Innistrad

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Ideas are incredibly insidious things. You have them all the time and mostly they just flit through the mind before disappearing forever, as ephemeral as Martin O'Malley's presidential run. Sometimes though, they get stuck and won't allow you to forget them. It's like a bad itch that you can never scratch sufficiently, not even with those little hands on a stick. You just keep scratching and scratching, never satisfied, just constantly trying to make the idea work, pushing it and pushing it until you realize that you've tortured this metaphor long enough and decide to awkwardly transition to the next paragraph.

Erdwal Illuminator art

Brewing for me is an extremely meditative exercise for the aforementioned reasons. While I've had most of my success through deck tuning, I still enjoy that less than the joy of discovery in brewing up an entirely new deck, or exploring a new direction for an existing deck. There's just something special with trying something new and experimenting that provides incredible relief when your mind is buzzing with possibilities. This is why, following last week's article, I couldn't help actually trying out the ideas I suggested. Are any of these actually good? I'm not really sure. But they might be, and definitely warrant further exploration.

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Bygone Affinity

As I said last week, my initial impression of [tippy title="Bygone Bishop" width="330" height="330"]Bygone Bishop temp[/tippy] and of investigate in general is that it has very limited fair uses and its (currently known) unfair applications are almost certainly worse than pre-existing decks. I speculated that if Bishop had a home in Modern it would be in a "fair" deck, or a deck that does something fair in a very unfair way, of which the best one for artifacts is Affinity. I also thought it was too cute to be viable, but I said that about Nourishing Shoal in Reanimator and we know how that turned out. You never know until you try these things, so I did. And I am now very confused.

I'll start by explaining the deck I used.

Bygone Affinity, test deck by David Ernenwein

Creatures

4 Ornithopter
3 Memnite
4 Signal Pest
4 Vault Skirge
4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Steel Overseer
3 Master of Etherium
2 Bygone Bishop
1 Spellskite

Artifacts

4 Mox Opal
4 Springleaf Drum
4 Cranial Plating

Instants

2 Galvanic Blast

Lands

4 Glimmervoid
4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Island

All I did to get here was take a number of Affinity lists, average them out, and then put Bishop in the contested slots. Not the most scientific, but when you're just testing the viability of an idea you don't expect to get it right on the first try. I should also note that while I am not an Affinity player, I've played against it and tested with it enough to play at a reasonable level.

Careful StudyTo actually test a single card, I remove one of them from my deck before playing, draw six cards like I'm taking a mulligan (without scrying), and then take the top three cards and shuffle in the test card, then draw my seventh card. This ensures that, in a typical game, I will see the test card, but I'm not guaranteed when I will see it. This more accurately reflects a real game than just starting with it in hand. I then play ten goldfish games and five against Jund to see if it's a viable idea. I use Jund since it's the most-played fair deck and I think it's also the most "average" deck in Modern. It plays disruption, powerful threats, and burn, so if you're weak to something, there's a good chance Jund has it. I think this provides the best bang for your testing buck.

My results from this were... odd. I'm intrigued but also unconvinced by [tippy title="Bygone Bishop" width="330" height="330"]Bygone Bishop temp[/tippy]. In the goldfish games, he felt like a win-more, and sometimes a won't-win.Bygone Bishop temp He wasn't as good as the usual Affinity payoff cards, but he was better than another Galvanic Blast. Sometimes he was just a 2/3 flier, which is just okay since at least he can wear Cranial Plating even if he doesn't directly contribute to Plating himself. When I did generate value from Bishop it averaged three Clues over two turns which generally didn't speed up my Ravager or Plating kills. Bishop only hit play once on turn one. Accomplishing that depleted my hand so much that I'm not sure the extra Clues really made a difference, especially since I didn't have a payoff card for a few turns and lacked the mana to both make and break Clues in the same turn. I concluded that Bishop didn't goldfish well, which wasn't good news, but theory and reality don't always reflect each other which is why I actually played some games before making a decision.

Inquisition of KozilekThe Jund games really muddied the waters for me. It was never correct for Jund to Inquisition of Kozilek the Bishop, and in play he drew fire from more important artifacts, usually after making some Clues. He was also completely resistant to Kolaghan's Command and thus survived removal storms more often than Ravager, Overseer, and Master did. The other thing I didn't appreciate was the power of the Clues themselves. I knew from theory-crafting and the goldfish games that Clues were "free" Ravager fodder, but what I didn't appreciate until I tried it out was how good that was. Feeding Ravager without spending any real cards made Lightning Bolt much worse on a number of occasions and it also meant that when you went all-in on Arcbound Ravager you didn't actually have to eat your entire board.

The other thing about the Clues is that they're fairly innocuous, so in Game 1 at least Abrupt Decaythey're not likely to be the target of Abrupt Decay or Maelstrom Pulse. That was relevant once when Affinity's board got destroyed except for two Glimmervoids and one Clue. Of course, if they did eat removal, your business artifacts were safe. If it weren't for the Clue, I would have lost everything, and before you ask, no, that game did not at the time include Mox Opal or Springleaf Drum which normally occupy that job. Once Affinity got some more artifacts into play, sacrificing the Clue was better than anything it could have done with an Opal or Drum (it wasn't enough to win, but it was still better than the alternatives).

From this I have to think that [tippy title="Bygone Bishop" width="330" height="330"]Bygone Bishop temp[/tippy] is worth pursuing in Affinity. There is value to be had in Bishop, and not being an artifact isn't that big a burden, though again I'm not a dedicated Affinity player. The problem is that while I know what Bishop does I'm not really sure what it is for. He's definitely not a sideboard card, since the Clues don't help against artifact hate and Bishop's stats aren't enough to be useful in hate-filled games. He's borderline as a maindeck card because he's slow and only indirectly impacts Affinity's gameplan. And yet, he has done enough good things in my, admittedly limited, testing that I think he might be worth it. On his own and untriggered, Bishop is mediocre at best. On the other hand, when you set him up it makes your Plan A much better. If you are an Affinity pilot I encourage you to at least try it out and tell me what you think. I'd love to know if I'm actually on to something here or if the card really is as win-more as I suspected early.

Dragonstorm

Approaching the Dragonstorm suggestion was a far more tense exercise than I expected. On the one hand, the deck has quite a bit of history to draw from and I have experience with it to guide my process. The problem was that nagging question of "Am I making a dragonstormworse Storm?" I concluded pretty quickly that since Dragonstorm costs so much, the answer would always be "yes," so I shouldn't try to compete for the same deck space. This dovetailed nicely with my assessment of [tippy title="Vessel of Volatility" width="330" height="330"]Vessel of Volatility temp[/tippy]. Instead, this had to be a slower deck with a combo kill.

The most famous version was Patrick Chapin's Worlds 2007 deck which packed a Pyromancer's Swath Plan B (also, because it is mandatory, the most famous on camera bad beat). While I don't think Swath is playable in Modern, and just including a burn package isn't viable (I don't think stapling a bad Burn deck and a bad Storm deck together is a winning strategy), maybe including a Snapcaster Mage package would work. After all, there's room in the format for a new Twin deck, why not see if this is it?

Dragonstorm, test deck by David Ernenwein

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Bogardan Hellkite

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Serum Visions
2 Spell Snare
4 Remand
4 Manamorphose
4 Desperate Ritual

Sorceries

4 Dragonstorm
2 Forked Bolt

Enchantments

4 Vessel of Volatility

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Steam Vents
4 Island
1 Mountain
3 Sulfur Falls

I figured the Snapcaster package would give Dragonstorm enough time that it didn't need to run all the rituals from regular storm. Manamorphose is here partially to be storm fuel and partially because it was suggested in the comments that Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund and Atarka, World Render are a strong sideboard plan for the deck so I want to have the option to hardcast them if it came to that.

PestermiteThe testing procedure was the same as for the Affinity list, except for the card testing. Seeding cards was unnecessary since I'm testing an entire deck rather than a one-card addition. I don't know much about Modern Storm so I checked around for the consensus on how to play Storm vs. Jund and what to expect. Apparently, discard coupled with pressure is very bad for Storm and it normally wins by going off very quickly. Surprise! This really isn't possible for Dragonstorm so I anticipated not actually being able to storm off very often. I would instead rely on the Snapcaster plan to win. This didn't fill me with confidence, since the way Twin dealt with this problem was Pestermite beatdown, and with only Snapcaster and Hellkite to do that I had doubts.

The goldfishing games were a little schizophrenic. Every so often you got excellent storm Bogardan Hellkitehands and killed on turn four. Sometimes you got Splinter Twin hands full of interaction and Snapcasters. Most were in between, which made actually goldfishing very difficult, but they suggested this is the kind of deck that would reward tight play and format knowledge. A hand of Serum Visions, Snapcaster, Bolt, Vessel, and lands was pretty typical and could be good in a number of different ways, depending on the matchup and your playstyle. Doubly so when deciding what you're scrying for. Simply playing out a Hellkite end of turn was a surprisingly fast kill as well and was also more common than I'd like. See Beyond may be necessary to prevent drawing all your Hellkites before you combo.

As expected, Jund proved difficult. Liliana of the Veil was almost unbeatable and a discard-Liliana of the Veilheavy Jund hand frequently left Dragonstorm with only high cost spells and not enough interaction to survive and draw out of its predicament. Decay was also surprisingly strong against Vessel. Dragonstorm could survive the initial onslaught well enough, but was frequently too out of gas by that point to turn the corner and win the game. The one win it did get was thanks to unmolested Vessel's powering out drawn Hellkites. I suspect my build was trying to do too much and lacked enough of a unifying principle to work.

Despite this, I saw enough good that I think a more optimal build might be passable. Flashing in early Hellkites was strong and would have won a second game if not for Terminate. When the Snapcaster package was running it was also quite potent. I was right about the power of Vessel and while Jund wasn't impressed I suspect most other decks will be far more vulnerable. I admit that this may be dead-end, but I'm not willing to give up on this just yet.

Crawling Loam?

While I was working on the above decks, I was also keeping my eye on the madness cards. UG Madness was the first deck I won a Friday Nigth Magic with, so I'm rather nostalgic for its return. This is not to be, at least not yet. Zombie Infestation remains the best costless discard outlet available, and if Life from the Loam hasn't made that card good I can't see madness fixing that problem. However, while I was looking for Wild Mongrel to be spoiled I saw this:

Crawling Sensation temp

I know Wizards will claim this is a delirium enabler, but they can't fool me: [tippy title="Crawling Sensation" width="330" height="330"]Crawling Sensation temp[/tippy] is a dredge card! Now, I have long despised dredge and won't go to a Modern tournament without Rest in Peace, but I know a dredger when I see one. The self-mill, which has been good in the past in a rest in peacenumber of decks, rocks. The fact that it's repeatable, controllable, and free could be very good. I've played against Assault Loam and Loam Pox quite a bit thanks to some enthusiasts in my area and while those decks are very powerful they always fall apart without Life from the Loam. [tippy title="Crawling Sensation" width="330" height="330"]Crawling Sensation temp[/tippy] provides those decks with two additional chances to find Loam each turn while also filling the graveyard with all the other dredgers and value that define Loam decks, and this doesn't seem bad. It might even be good. As for the second line of text, a 1/1 swarm is nothing to sneeze at, and you can easily trigger this once (if not twice) per turn cycle.

I expect that you expect me to provide a decklist for this idea. I expected that too, until I actually tried out my lists and found that they were worse in practice than they looked on paper. Life from the LoamAnd they looked like real piles on paper. The current Loam lists are too tight to just shoehorn in Sensation and expect it to be good and it really, really, didn't play well with Smallpox. The lists I made from whole cloth were just awful and didn't make it past goldfishing. They were too slow and clunky to beat the goldfish before he died of being a goldfish. They were really good at building huge graveyards, but I tended to mill most of my business and it took forever to put together a win or even enough interaction to plausibly survive to win the game. I don't know if this means that Sensation is actually bad or if I just don't know enough about Loam decks to make it work, but if there are any Loam players out there, try it out and let me know.

For Every Answer, More Questions

This is where my brew sessions have led me for the moment. I've definitely hit a wall with Sensation and I'm turning over Bishop for evaluation by real Affinity players, but I'm going to keep picking at Dragonstorm and see what else develops. While I suspect it's wasted effort and that normal Storm is just better, the fact that you can play the long game and win off small storm counts suggests that it could be enough better against Storm's bad matchups to be worthwhile. Only testing will decide, and I'm always open to suggestions in the comments.

Drafting with Morgan – OGW Draft 2

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Morgan Wentworth

Morgan has been playing Magic for seven years now and producing Draft content for four. She loves value and is notable for going out of her way to draw cards and nab two-for-ones. All of her content is made with a primary goal: improving her own game – and taking you along for the ride.

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Posted in Drafting, Free, MTGO Drafts, Oath of the Gatewatch, Strategy1 Comment on Drafting with Morgan – OGW Draft 2

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Insider: Shadows Over Innistrad Modern Sleepers

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The full Shadows over Innistrad set list has been revealed. Rejoice! Still no Innocent Blood. Riot! I guess there's always Eldritch Moon, which should also give us more answers to the Team Emrakul vs. Team Marit Lage vs. Team Whatever-The-Heck-You-Think-Nahiri-Is-Summoning question. Maybe we'll get some clues (not just the tokens) over the prerelease weekend?

As we and Nahiri bide our time until Moon, there are plenty of Modern playables in Shadows to include in existing decks, brew around, and argue over as we approach summer's Modern season. I've already written about both Thing in the Ice and Archangel Avacyn before, so today I want to tackle some of the less obvious Modern playables.

Archangel and Thing

"Less obvious" is always relative, and if you're a Modern aficionado like me, you've probably encountered these cards at least once in a forum, on Reddit, in an article comment section, or any of the other repositories of Modern knowledge.

For you veterans, take this article as confirmation that the card has potential. If you haven't stumbled on these gems before, get excited, because I think these sleepers have a lot of potential for both playability and profit.

Dredging for Gold

It's no secret that Wizards hates the dredge mechanic. It's an 8-9 on Mark Rosewater's "Storm Scale," was responsible for two bans on Modern's inaugural Pro Tour Philadelphia banlist, and Sam Stoddard went on record saying dredge "failed as a mechanic." I don't know what those guys are talking about: I love dredge, and many combo players (and Vengevine aggro buffs) feel the same way.

Thankfully for us, and unfortunately for those fun police at Wizards, Shadows offers a number of new cards which power up Modern dredge strategies. This includes traditional Dredgevine lists, like that played by Michael Wooline at a Star City Games IQ in January, Rafael Levy's Smallpox Loam, or Jason Chung's Grand Prix Melbourne Dredge strategy. Dredge variants have lingered in sub-Tier 3 waters for years, but Shadows might finally give them the push they needed to claw their way into Tier 2.

As any Dredge player knows, breaking the mechanic starts with enablers. That means Zombie Infestation, Faithless Looting, and now this new Hapless Researcher-gone-evil from Shadows.

Insolent Neonate

Reverse Hapless Researcher is a huge boon to dredge strategies. At common, he's one of the quietest breakouts of the set (get those foils!). Discard/draw order matters when dredging, and Neonate lets you bin a Golgari Grave-Troll and immediately dredge for six. That's a huge upgrade from a Researcher effect, and even slightly better than Looting in some circumstances, because it gives you a turn one dredge to set up a turn two dredge off the binned cards from the discarded Troll.

Don't get tricked into playing a deck with twenty City of Brass variants, even if Modern's card-pool allows it. Modern is a fast format where you can't take that much incidental damage from lands. Blood Moon is also very real, even to Dredge pilots. This means Neonate is only good in the red Dredge versions, those also packing Faithless Looting.

That's sad news for the Sultai and blue-black mages who are just as excited for Dredge playables outside of the red one-drop. Thankfully, they have just as much, if not more, to get pumped about.

Prized Amalgam

As I wrote in a forum thread after seeing this card, "Hellooooo Modern." If Stitcher Geralf were kind enough to give Amalgam some vocal chords, it'd just be screaming "Dredge Me!" Maybe Wizards doesn't hate dredge as much as I thought? I know Wizards doesn't really test for non-rotating formats, but this is an excellent inadvertent or intentional addition to the Modern Dredge arsenal.

At 3/3, Amalgam hits hard enough to fit the go-wide Dredge gameplan, not trading with Tarmogoyf but slugging for enough damage per turn to end a game fast. Getting Amalgam into play should be trivial for a Dredge pilot. Gravecrawler does it. Bloodghast does it. Vengevine does it. Dredged Narcomoebas do it. Even other Amalgams satisfy the trigger!

There's a one-turn delay between when the Amalgams return and when you can start pummeling face with their three arms (maybe that's why it's 3/3?), but this should set you up nicely for a turn three attack or a huge turn four alpha strike in the right engine. That's on par with other aggro strategies, which makes me feel good about Dredge's competitive chances post-Shadows.

If you want to double-down on the Zombie angle, or if you want to add some evasion to your ghoulish squad, Geralf has at least one other toy for you to play with.

Stitchwing Skaab

Delver of Secrets, meet Dredge. Dredge, meet (zombified) Delver of Secrets.

Delver proved to us that a three-power flier can go the distance, and although the one toughness is a definite downgrade (Lingering Souls remains the bane of wide, airborne attacks), the Stitchwing is a nice addition to the aggressive Dredge charge. Skaab's activation cost is a bit prohibitive, as is the two-card discard, but even just a single Skaab can easily swing for 6+ over two turns.

Of course, dredging is as much about combo shenanigans as aggro brute strength. See the storied tradition of Dread Return. Shadows also delivers in the combo department, with a real "monster" of an engine.

thegitrogmonster

All hail the toad!

Continuing the bizarre tradition of massive creatures with deathtouch (someone ask Rosewater about that one), the Frog Horror looks like big, dumb Commander fodder at first glance. Then you hit that last line of text. Someone on the Shadows design or development team must be part of the cult of dredge, because "graveyard from anywhere" is begging to get broken alongside Magic's most broken graveyard mechanic.

Modern brewers have been hard at work breaking the Gitrog Monster's draw ability, with some of the best work getting done in MTG Salvation's "Gitrog Dredge" thread.

There, Modern's mad scientists paired the Frog with Goryo's Vengeance/Footsteps of the Gory/Unburial Rites to cheat a dredged Gitrog into play. After that, Edge of Autumn starts the land discard-draw chain as you dredge into lands, draw cards, and keep dredging through your entire deck.

Gitrog Monster Combo Breaker

After that, it's just a matter of finding your win condition. The Monster even lets you play a second land in case you need a little more mana. Heartless Summoning combines with Narcomoebas and Bridge from Below, killing the Narcos instantly and creating 1/1 zombies each time. Add Emrakul, the Aeons Torn for some questionable-legality Four Horsemen-style reshuffling. Or kill them with Lightning Storm/Conflagrate like Ad Nauseam.

Between all these synergies and many more I haven't listed (Phantasmagorian to keep the discard going, Dakmor Salvage discards during the cleanup steps, etc.), Gitrog Dredge is just getting started. It's unclear if this is just a worse version of the existing Griselbrand/Nourishing Shoal reanimator deck, but it's certainly got brewers excited.

In terms of investing in older cards, any of the following are fair game:

Dredge Staples Waiting on the Bench

Add Thought Scour and Darkblast, Squee, Goblin Nabob and Life from the Loam, and many more! All of these cards are relatively underpriced for potential Tier 2 Modern hits, so any of them could be good pickups.

Just be careful of over-investing in Dredge variants. It's unlikely that all the Dredge flavors will make their way into Tier 2 (or, more realistically, into solid Tier 3 status). You don't want to buy every feasible Dredge card only to have less than 33% of them work out.

Then again, many of these cards are so underpriced that it might be worth the risk. If you can't decide, it's hard to go wrong with foil uncommons and rares!

Three More Hidden Gems

Dredge is obviously a huge winner after Shadows, but that's not the extent of the set's sleeper picks. A number of other Modern archetypes benefit from Shadows, and I want to break down three of the standouts which may slip through your card evaluation radar.

Crawling Sensation

Bitterblossom is a cornerstone of the Tier 3 B/W Tokens and an occasional Jund and Abzan bullet. It also has a commanding history in competitive Magic and was initially banned before its release in 2014. Crawling Sensation isn't quite an unconditional, two-mana army, but it has potential to exceed those benchmarks in the right deck.

Crawling Sensation

In the right deck, Sensation becomes a landlocked, double Bitterblossom without the life loss. In the right deck, that's a lot of width that many opponents will struggle to match. It's relatively easy for decks that use the graveyard as a resource to benefit from Sensation, especially grindier decks using Life from the Loam. Molten Vortex and/or Seismic Assault, anyone?

Sensation isn't quite the next coming of Bitterblossom, but I'm still optimistic about its chances as a key roleplayer in the right deck. Don't be surprised to see this improve some of those Assault decks that have always enjoyed fringe playability.

Invasive Surgery

Legacy players have been using Envelop in the sideboard to beat Sneak Attack and other powerful sorceries. Modern never had Envelop, but now gets a strict upgrade in Invasive Surgery. Like in Legacy, the card takes out a haymaker sorcery at one mana. Unlike in Legacy, there are far fewer ways to counter spells at this rate in Modern, which makes the card very relevant going forward.

Invasive Surgery

Tempo decks, especially Temur ones, are going to love the new Envelop variant in Modern. It's not quite maindeckable, but it's so strong at the sideboard slot that I expect to see some decks use at least two, depending on the metagame.

You'll probably need Temur colors to maximize Surgery: blue for cantrips like Thought Scour, and green so you can work double-duty off your card types for Tarmogoyf and delirium. Oath of Nissa looks stronger by the day.

Surgery hits a range of major targets in Modern. This includes BGx Midrange's discard suite, Lingering Souls (a huge blowout here), Scapeshift, Living End, Serum Visions, Ancient Stirrings, and all of the red-based sweepers that historically give Temur Tempo-style decks fits.

Lobotomizing Modern

This isn't the flashiest card in the block, but it's a quiet hit which is likely to power up the strategies that really wanted the additional protection. Added bonus: when this does hit a big card, such as Scapeshift or Souls, it's a real game-maker.

Asylum Visitor

Madness is missing one thing to make it truly powerful in Modern: a strong enabler. The closest thing is Zombie Infestation, but the deck really needs a one-drop like the old-school Putrid Imp or Tireless Tribe (wrong colors, right effect). If the Madness deck ever emerges, it will be from a strong enabler. And if that strong enabler ever comes around, Aslyum Visitor is a major powerhouse just waiting for a partner.

Asylum Visitor

The rate on a two-mana 3/1 isn't the worst for an aggressive madness strategy. It gets better when you discard it to achieve that rate. It gets way better when you're using it as Dark Confidant every turn with significantly less life loss on average. And it gets downright broken when you trigger Visitor every single turn.

A Madness deck would certainly achieve a once-per-turn activation, which makes this Dark Confidant with a madness and power upside. If you can rip apart an opponent's hand, or play this in an aggressive matchup which can't remove the Visitor, she's Confidant on steroids in a hurry.

Again, I don't think Modern has the enablers needed to make a proper Madness deck. But we're very close and if that happens, Asylum is the powerhouse you've been waiting for.

Shadows and Bans in Modern

Sleepers may get me more excited than the obvious staples, but that doesn't make those staples any less powerful. Archangel Avacyn remains a huge threat in reactive decks, and Thing in the Ice is sure to find a blue-based home. I'm optimistic about Traverse the Ulvenwald in a Temur shell (Thought Scour, Tarmogoyf, and Mishra's Bauble love the toolbox tutor), and I really want to play some U/W Spirits.

Of course, Shadows isn't the only big change coming to Modern. April 4 will also see the long-awaited banlist update, and the inevitable death of at least one card in Eldrazi.

April 4 Ban Candidates in Eldrazi

Of these cards, and of the other suggestions I've heard, the lands are the likeliest ban targets and it isn't even close. Aaron Forsythe went on record during the disastrously Eldrazified Grand Prix Detroit to say he personally didn't want to nuke the deck, but he also acknowledge that internal testing would be the final arbiter of that decision.

I'll be talking about ban scenarios later this week on Modern Nexus, but here's a quick breakdown:

Scenario 1 - Eye of Ugin is Banned

If Forsythe gets his wish and only one card gets axed, Eye of Ugin is definitely the card to cut. It leads to high-variance fast starts, and gives the deck a crushing inevitability that control players can't compete with.

Eldrazi Temple is probably more central to the deck's long-term survival, but Eye is what guarantees the deck is Tier 0 broken and not just Tier 1 or Tier 2. Temple, even with Vesuva and the Urzatron, gives Eldrazi a much slower gameplan which is much more in line with the rest of Modern.

Scenario 2 - Both Eye and Temple are Banned

Kill it with fire. In this scenario, Forsythe's wish goes unfulfilled and Wizards determines the deck is fundamentally too broken for Modern. If Forsythe hadn't made his comment at Detroit, I would argue this was the likeliest scenario.

Both Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time got banned in FAR less offensive decks (Delver never exceeded 20%-25% of the format; Eldrazi hit 47% at Detroit and 35% overall). This scorched-earth ban policy follows not only the delve bans, but also the bans of 2011 Caw Blade and 2005 Affinity.

Modern After Eldrazi

In both ban scenarios, Modern will be in much better shape than it has been since February. Scenario 2 would be the best of the two, effectively erasing the Eldrazi dominance and returning Modern to its post-Splinter Twin state. Scenario 1 would be fine, as a depowered Eldrazi would likely be okay in Modern, even if I personally wouldn't want to risk it.

As for unbans, it seems incredibly unlikely that Wizards will unban anything. They only had two weeks of post-Twin Modern before the Eldrazi screwed everything up, and I'm sure they'll want to collect data through the summer to see if anything is worth unbanning.

At that point in July, I imagine Ancestral Vision will be the candidate---blue-based control should still be lagging in the linear, post-Eldrazi and post-Twin world.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Vision

Between bans and Shadows, I'm excited for April Modern and you should be too! Let me know in the comments if you have any questions about cards, the metagame, or just want to talk about some hot new Shadows tech. See you all after the format-redeeming April bans!

Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Mar 20th to Mar 26th

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Welcome back to High Stakes MTGO!

This past week marked for me the beginning of the buying and selling waves related to the incoming rotation of Standard.

The rotation of Standard is always a crucial time for MTGO speculators with the option buy a basket of singles, a few targeted positions, foils or full sets. With so many buying opportunities this is also a good time to review and maybe sell well-performing positions in order to reinvest in positions with a better growth potential.

The buying targets won’t only be from Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) but also from the sets rotating out of Standard---Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF). After prices have dropped significantly, full sets or singles from sets rotating out of Standard have proven to be a very safe investment with moderate returns in only a few months.

In my case the sales I focused on, and will keep focusing on, are singles from the Legendary Cube (PZ1) prize set along with a few Modern positions.

The vast majority of my PZ1 positions have recorded a gain of 40-100% over the past four months. I don’t think they can outperform BFZ or OGW cards in the coming months so I’m going to take my profits on one part of my portfolio and reinvest them in another part.

Here is the link to my live portfolio.

Buys This Week

BFZ;ands

In my first round of BFZ singles, unsurprisingly, I’m betting on lands. Cycles of rare lands are the easiest and most consistent tix makers you can find. They most likely won’t see prices multiplied by 10 but many of them have good chances to see their price double or triple from what I paid for them.

Actually, you could say that their price has already doubled for some since a month or two ago. I’m certainly a little bit late to the party but I'd rather be late than not here at all. Prices surged a bit after the Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) rare lands were announced. They are now back down and I’m certainly going to try to go for another round and buy the lands I haven’t yet in BFZ as well as OGW.

I also intend to buy other singles, rares and mythics. For BFZ I think prices won’t get lower and can actually only go higher as new interactions or synergies are found with cards from SOI. OGW cards on the other hand may still have some room to lower their price. For a small set opened twice as much as any other small sets before, the price of a full set of OGW is still amazingly high.

HoBL

This is nothing else but a random bulk spec. Champions of Kamigawa flashback drafts are done and lowered the price of that legendary land to the ground. I think this card has a unique enough effect that it may deserve a spike sometimes in the future if conditions align. I can’t really lose anything here and the reward, although hypothetical, can be very high.

Sales This Week

PZ1 packs

The price of these unique boosters was getting really high compared to the price I paid to acquire them. It was time to let part of my stock go, which may have directly or indirectly caused the price of these boosters to drop from 3 tix to 2.6 tix last week.

Legendary Cube returns this week but the Legendary Cube Prize packs won't be awarded. I would then expect the PZ1 packs to resume their slow upward trend.

However this is a reminder that the PZ1 packs can return any time, which would certainly cause their price to decline more permanently and dramatically. I'm likely to sell the rest of stockpile very soon especially if buying prices return to the neighborhood of 2.7-2.8 tix.

Following a fluctuating upward trend initiated last December, Phantasmal Image crossed the 3 tix bar about a week ago. The spread on this card has always been large but this time around I had the opportunity to liquidate my copies at ~2.5 tix, a little bit higher than my target price, so no reason to skip this sale.

This is the illustration of what I was saying in the introduction of this article. I'm in the process of moving out most, if not all, of my PZ1 singles. All of them have shown positive results and I want to exit now in order to reinvest in buying opportunities linked to the incoming Standard rotation.

I don't think these guys can safely grow by 50% or more in the next three to six months, unlike the positions I'm about to buy. The Legendrary Cube singles or prize pack specs turned out to be extremely successful with, at this very moment, all positions yielding profits.

On My Radar

To elaborate on what I said in the introduction, my goal in the next two to three weeks is to buy more BFZ singles and OGW singles and full sets. Unless you have a lot of time to dedicate to MTGO investments, full sets should be your bread and butter. They provide solid and predictable returns on large quantities of tix.

I'm also planing on buying singles and full sets of KTK and FRF. The fetchlands alone are a guarantee of value for KTK and a few mythics such as Anafenza, the Foremost and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon could see nice gains in the coming months.

Saleswise, I will flip all of my PZ1 positions very soon and convert the tix generated this way into the positions mentioned above.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Insider: QS Cast 28: Flipping Heirlooms

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Play

This week, the cast talks about the remaining Shadows of Innistrad spoiler. There’s a lot going on with the flip cards, as well as a bunch of other interesting (if not good) spells. We talked about:

  • Using Twins of Maurer Estate to beat Incorrigible Youths in B/R Vampires matches
  • Neglected Heirloom being a secret power uncommon with all the flip cards
  • Village Messenger: the next Monastery Swiftspear? Not at all, but still compelling.

And plenty more.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Prowl Service: Brewing Temur Rogues

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Spoiler season is brewing season, and this one has me deliriously joyful. Last week, some enticing cards from Shadows over Innistrad inspired me to revisit and introduce an old brew of mine: Wx Tallowisp. I also alluded to another of my longstanding projects, a UGx Rogue tribal deck.

thieves' fortune art

Exactly zero commenters inquired about that pile, but I've been having too much fun tuning it this week not to share anyway. This article describes the deck's origins, considers its evolutions, and updates the deck with some Shadows tech.

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A Rogue History

I remember casually watching Pro Tour Fate Reforged to see where the format landed in the wake of the Treasure Cruise banning. I had the stream running as I got dressed to head to a Modern tournament myself. On my way out, I got to see the beginning of a match between Makahito Mihara and Lee Shi Tian in which the pair passed a Humble Defector back and forth. Defector had some really cute interactions with the Splinter Twin deck. Pestermite can untap Defector in response to its ability for a fortunenet of four cards. While legal, Splinter Twin could enchant Defector to cast Divination each turn. We now know the creature never saw serious play in Twin, but these synergies still intrigued me.

Fast-forward to a few days later. I'm perusing Gatherer for secret cantrips when I discover Thieves' Fortune. I read it and my jaw drops. A one-mana Impulse? If the Modern card pool has any decent Rogues, this card could actually serve as a reliable consistency engine. And what's this... it's a tribal instant?! Guess we have to include Tarmogoyf. Bummer!

Before we turn to Chapter One, let's take a moment of silence for what could have been. Simic colors? Rogues? Tarmogoyf? Tragically, not all Modern-frame cards are Modern-legal. Perhaps in another life, dear brothers:

Humble Beginnings

When I brew, I usually start with an idea and follow it to its logical extreme until I end up with a deck. If the deck seems like a worse version of an existing deck, I try to tweak it so it does something better than that deck. If I can manage that feat, I start running it through the Tier 1 gauntlet to check if it can hang with the big boys.

humbleAt this phase in the Rogue deck's lifespan, all I had was an idea: find a shell that allowed me to play Thieves' Fortune and Tarmogoyf together. Step one: check Modern for Rogues. By now, you've guessed that Humble Defector is a Rogue. So is Pestermite. This was all welcome news to me, and I came up with a Temur Twin shell that included the combo.

I also wanted Spellskite and Snapcaster Mage in some number, and figured it would be wrong not to include Aether Vial. Vial economizes mana and simplifies setting up the Defector-Pestermite interaction. Flashing in Spellskites and Goyfs sounded pretty fun, too. Remember Shouta Yasooka's Eternal Command deck? Minus the Witnesses, that's my kind of party.

I landed on something like this:

Fortune Twin, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Pestermite
4 Humble Defector
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Spellskite
2 Snapcaster Mage

Artifacts

4 AEther Vial

Enchantments

4 Splinter Twin

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Vapor Snag
4 Thieves' Fortune

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
3 Sulfur Falls
1 Desolate Lighthouse
3 Island
1 Forest
1 Mountain

After a few matches, I compared this deck to Temur Twin. No space for mainboard Remands made it difficult to interact with spell-based combo decks like Ad Nauseam - I had to race those or die. No space for flexible one-offs made me wonder why I wanted Thieves' Fortune at all. Just to find my combo? In some matchups, I didn't even want the combo. And in those matchups, I missed Electrolyze. I boarded Fortune out more than any other card, and it would sometimes rot in hand when I lacked cheap Rogues to set off prowl. Or when Humble Defector couldn't even look at the red zone because of my opponent's Tarmogoyf. Maybe I was asking too much of the little guy. I mean, he's just a humble 2/1.
Twin
Either way, this deck violated two brewing fundamentals:

  • Don't build a worse version of an existing deck. I built a worse Temur Twin.
  • Maintain focus. I built a deck around Thieves' Fortune that ran better without Thieves' Fortune.

So, I guess I needed to focus less on Pestermite. But the other Rogues were so... bad. I figured this was why nobody played Thieves' Fortune in Modern, and benched the project indefinitely.

"In the Interest of Diversity"

Indefinitely ended when Wizards banned Splinter Twin. The announcement got me thinking. The Rogue deck gets better with Splinter Twin. With Splinter Twin, the Rogue deck is a worse Splinter Twin than Splinter Twin. Without Splinter Twin, the deck gets even worse. But if nobody can play Splinter Twin, at least Rogues isn't a bad Splinter Twin deck anymore.

Noble HierarchGood enough for me. Exactly one exciting card had been released for this deck since Pro Tour Fate Reforged: Faerie Miscreant. Despite her clearly underwhelming effect, Miscreant was still a flying Rogue one-drop, and therefore supported Thieves' Fortune. I had so many Faeries now it felt wrong not to include Spellstutter Sprite. And given Fortune's increased reliability, I tossed a Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker into the mix. I also ran a set of Noble Hierarch to complement Vial and maximize speedy starts. Exalted on a Faerie was my big breakthrough with this version.

The first draft I tested played quite badly, like most of the Kiki-Mite decks that chased the January 18th announcement. I dropped the deck as I began testing Eldrazi Stompy, an unrefined version of the deck that destroyed Modern.

Traversing Playability

Last week's Shadows review included a blurb on [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy], a card I'm beginning to think will redefine the format. We all know what happened last time I made this claim, so I won't argue with detractors - you're right, we'll see in due time! That said, the card is testing so well for me I can't help but extol its virtues.

traverse the ulvenwaldTraverse buffs creature decks that can quickly and reliably put four card types into their graveyards. Specifically, Traverse grants unparalleled Modern consistency and a hyper-efficient toolbox element to decks that want to play Tarmogoyf. That includes most of Modern's goodstuff decks, and excludes established creature decks like CoCo and Hatebears.

Just how valuable is consistency? Ponder and Preordain are banned in Modern for the consistency they provide. And toolboxing? Birthing Pod in Modern went the way of Survival of the Fittest in Legacy. Even in this desolate Eldrazi winter, Modern's premier toolbox deck - Abzan Company, formerly known as "Podless Pod" - took down GP Detroit.

Traverse’s “hidden mode” is Lay of the Land, which helps us build a manabase in the early game, and lets us play less lands and more card types. This mode makes Traverse as good as a “real” cantrip, since those are played for their ability to find lands early and business later.

My first go at brewing with Traverse was a Temur toolbox deck running Thought Scour to quickly turn on delirium. The list:

Temur Toolbox, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Spellskite
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Sower of Temptation

Enchantments

2 Seal of Fire

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Tarfire
1 Mana Leak
1 Remand
1 Stubborn Denial

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Island
1 Forest
1 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Spell Pierce
1 Invasive Surgery
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Hornet Nest
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Sulfur Elemental
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Glen Elendra Archmage
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Stormbreath Dragon

With its eight Bolts, this deck has trouble losing to linear aggro decks like Affinity, Burn, and Infect. Tarmogoyf also gets big enough here to seriously clock anybody racing on a non-combat axis. Aside from that, Bolt-Snap-Bolt has always been the bee’s knees in this format, and having access to cards like Huntmaster, Sower, and Scavenging Ooze at opportune moments gives this deck huge all-around game.

[tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] fills a role here similar to Green Sun's Zenith's in Josh Utter-Leyton’s original Counter-Cat. After we’ve achieved delirium, a trivial feat in Modern, Traverse increases our board presence mightily by adding a Tarmogoyf, or finds the answer to a question posed by our opponent. Notably, Traverse doesn’t have to search green creatures, which gives it a serious leg-up over Zenith - we can find Magus of the Moon against greedy opponents, Glen Elendra Archmage against combo decks, and Snapcaster Mage to close out the game with a final Lightning Bolt.

Magus of the MoonThe main reason to play a Temur Traverse deck in Modern, besides its high density of power cards, is its ability to search a bullet Moon effect. Most decks in Modern lose to an early Blood Moon, and many others lose to a late one. Others still can fetch around Moon reliably enough to deter players from boarding in the enchantment against them. These include most blue Counterspell decks, and a host of green creature decks. All of them sometimes open draws that encourage them to fetch a lot of shocklands. Being able to search for and resolve a Blood Moon effect on command gives Temur Traverse a tremendous advantage over multicolored decks, since we can easily punish these openings on sight. With just one Magus main, we never clog on Moon effects. When opponents sculpt a Moon-proof manabase, a naturally-drawn Magus at least provides a 2/2 body.

Temur Toolbox showed promise in testing, but felt kind of boring to me - I'm not big on "stabilizing." I only played with it for a few days before trying Traverse in the more aggressive Rogue deck, and I haven’t looked back since.

Getting Rogues Right

My efforts yielded a deck that tickles me on all fronts. First of all, we play as many cantrips as Storm! Second, we get an on-tribe Jace, Vryn's Prodigy that deals damage and never flips! And finally, we have a reasonable home for 4 Thieves' Fortune! Enough exclamation points. See for yourself:

Temur Rogues, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Faerie Miscreant
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Looter il-Kor
2 Snapcaster Mage
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Obsessive Skinner
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Huntmaster of the Fells

Enchantments

4 Oath of Nissa

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Thieves' Fortune

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
2 Forest
1 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Spell Pierce
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Invasive Surgery
1 Spellskite
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Kitchen Finks
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Glen Elendra Archmage
1 Sower of Temptation
1 Stormbreath Dragon

Card Choices: Mainboard

Faerie Miscreant: Enables early Fortunes, which do a great job of turning on delirium. Also becomes a real threat with Noble Hierarch or [tippy title="Obsessive Skinner" width="330" height="330"]
obsessiveskinner[/tippy].

Looter il-Kor: Another easy enabler for Fortune, and by now, everyone knows the strength of constant looting. Looter cycles through lands like nobody’s business, and also fills the looter il-korgraveyard for delirium. It’s not uncommon to resolve a Looter on turn two, attack, dump a missing card type, and immediately be able to Traverse into a bullet. He can’t block, but makes up with the best evasive mechanic in Modern.

[tippy title="Obsessive Skinner" width="330" height="330"]
obsessiveskinner[/tippy]: The deck’s eighth Rogue, Skinner makes the cut as a searchable way to overcome board stalls. He also grows Miscreant and Looter to silly proportions for evasive assaults, and combos with persist creatures from the sideboard.

Noble Hierarch: Accelerates into high-velocity plays, turns our Rogues into clocks, and lets Goyf attack through his defected brethren.

Oath of Nissa: A cantrip that adds to delirium in multiples and Ponders into relevant creatures. Oath combines with Visions and Hierarch to facilitate keeping one-land hands.

Card Choices: Sideboard

Spell Pierce: Allows us to switch gears for games two and three and become highly reactive. Since this deck pressures opponents so quickly and spends so much mana cantripping, Pierce is our preferred Negate effect. Tremendous with Snapcaster Mage.

Ancient Grudge: Affinity hate that efficiently splash-damages anyone relying on artifact synergies.

[tippy title="Invasive Surgery" width="330" height="330"]Invasive Surgery[/tippy]: Our best answer to Pyroclasm and Anger of the Gods, which can dismantle our boards. Tarmogoyf also helps on this front, but I like having a hard answer to sweepers and board wipes in the sideboard. Surgery also hits all-stars like Lingering Souls, Serum Visions, Scapeshift, and Living End, and its extraction effect can prove deadly for combo decks.

Izzet StaticasterIzzet Staticaster: A searchable death sentence for dork-based creature decks, Infect, Affinity, and others.

Thrun, the Last Troll: Most blue decks just don’t beat this card. Thrun attacks like a ton of bricks and is impossible to kill. Wrath of God? Meet [tippy title="Invasive Surgery" width="330" height="330"]Invasive Surgery[/tippy].

Glen Elendra Archmage: Two Negates on a searchable body. Even more Negates with Skinner online.

Sower of Temptation: Interactive opponents often spend a hefty chunk of resources dealing with our board if we pace threats correctly, and Sower aims to come down when they put all their eggs into the proverbial Tasigur basket.

Stormbreath Dragon: Not a lot beats this Dragon. Modern’s interactive decks simply cannot remove it. With Dismember's reign of terror ending in April, Stormbreath seems like a great option to terrorize fair opponents.

Future and Positioning

Temur Rogues has tested swimmingly so far, and the toolbox element makes it highly adaptable. More than anything, the success I’m having with Temur Rogues suggests that [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy] is insane in Modern. The question remains whether Temur Rogues is a worse Temur Toolbox. When we compare my lists, we see that Temur Rogues trades away Thought Scours, some burn spells, and a slightly expanded mainboard toolbox for a more aggressive plan, improved consistency, and higher velocity. Is that trade worth it? Testing will tell.

Concerning specific matchups, Temur Rogues performs well against creature-based linear decks and poorly against spell-based linear decks. Access to bullets like Huntmaster of the Fells, Magus of the Moon, and Snapcaster Mage makes the creature matchup easy - we have so much relevant interaction at our fingertips. Not true for decks like Ad Nauseam, Burn, and Storm, which all demand cards like Spell Pierce and [tippy title="Invasive Surgery" width="330" height="330"]Invasive Surgery[/tippy] from the sideboard. I like Ancient Grudge as an extra hedge against Affinity, a deck I hope I’ll never forget to respect.

Huntmaster of the FellsInteractive decks are simpler for us to handle, since we have such an impressive arsenal of interactive cards at our disposal. Stormbreath, Thrun, Sower, and Huntmaster all devastate certain interactive decks. The hardest to beat are those with targeted discard and cheap removal, since they can break up our Rogue synergies and deal with Tarmogoyf at parity. Traverse still frequently out-grinds these Abrupt Decay decks; Izzet Staticaster chews through Confidants and Lingering Souls tokens, and Magus turns off manlands. I originally ran a Keranos in the sideboard, but cut it because it proved unnecessary for these matchups. I also tried the Kiki-Mite package, first in the main and then in the side, before trading it for actual answers to my problems.

Party in the U.Lven.Wald

Regardless whether Temur Rogues remains my Traverse deck of choice, I believe the card will usher in a new breed of goodstuff toolbox decks in Modern. I imagine Temur will remain the best color combination, thanks to blue’s ease in achieving delirium, Snapcaster Mage’s synergy with [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy], and the immense relevance of a bullet Moon effect. Either way, we’ve got a lot of brewing to do, and I couldn’t be more motivated. Shifting gears, if only a tiny bit: here’s to hoping the last Shadows over Innistrad spoilers give us a "fixed" Tarmogoyf!

 

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