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Insider: What Makes a Great Preorder Spec?

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Today I will venture away from the realm of MTGO speculation to a specific type of spec that works only for physical cards (for now at least): the preorder spec. Preordering a card is easily one of the highest variance bets you can make. No one has gotten a great chance to actually see the new cards in action and they can fluctuate wildly from their initial valuations.

Today I'll go over some of the great past specs and try to determine if there are any patterns we can discern. My methodology will be as follows. I will go through the MTGGoldfish data for physical cards from the last seven sets and pick all of the cards that increased in price either 400% or by $15 within the first two months after release (in relation to the price at release).

These are the slam dunk preorder picks. I choose such extreme qualifications for a few reasons. First, it ensures that they are truly profitable specs, even after all frictions are taken into account. It's easy to feel good about a physical spec that "doubled" from $2 to $4, but after all is said and done you may be close to breaking even when you take into consideration shipping, fees, and the time needed to make all of the sales.

Second, a spec that is so wildly underpriced at release is much more likely to be due to a giant misevaluation by the Magic community than due to luck or variance. This means there is a chance we can find the secret ingredients that lead to such amazing specs. On to the cards!

Slam Dunk Picks of the Past

Oath the Gatewatch

  • Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet ($6.5 to $23)

Battle for Zendikar

  • None

Magic Origins

  • Jace, Vryn's Prodigy ($19 to $44)
  • Hangarback Walker ($2 to $17)

Dragons of Tarkir

  • Dragonlord Ojutai ($9 to $33)
  • Den Protector ($1.5 to $9)

Fate Reforged

  • Outpost Siege ($0.5 to $4)
  • Mastery of the Unseen ($0.8 to $4)

Khans of Tarkir

  • Monastery Swiftspear ($0.5 to $2.5)
  • Dig Through Time ($2.3 to $12)

Magic 2015

  • Goblin Rabblemaster ($1 to $11)

Honorable Mentions

These are some of the cards I noted in my analysis that fell just short of qualifying as a slam dunk spec. They were either just short of 400%, just short of +$15, or spiked just after the initial two month period.

Ingredients for a Great Preorder Spec

Based on the above specs, I'll try to list some patterns I've noticed in the cards.

1) Priced Low for its Rarity

If we discount Jace, which is surely an outlier, then an uncommon spec should be no more than $0.5, a rare spec should be no more than $2, and a mythic spec should be no more than $10. I think this is a good baseline when looking for a greatly mispriced preorder spec.

2) Highly Flexible (Mana Cost)

Flexibility is key to a great spec because it means a card can fit into multiple different decks.

Hangarback Walker is to me the epitome of a flexible card. Its colorless mana cost allowed it to be played in so many decks that at one point on MTGO it achieved 40% metagame dominance (equivalent to four copies in 40% of decks). Hangarback was additionally flexible in-game since its XX mana cost made it great on turn two as well as turn ten.

3) Can Take Over a Game on its Own

Great cards become pillars of the metagame because they minimize the amount of effective counterplay that can be used against them. They often do this by "taking over a game."

An unanswered Jace or Rabblemaster is well known for stealing a game on its own. Another form of this concept is with cards like Dragonlord Ojutai that narrow your opponent's options because they are difficult to interact with (hexproof when untapped plus drawing you into more ways to protect itself).

4) Doesn't Need Help to be Good (Strategic Flexibility)

This is another form of flexibility as mentioned in point 2). The only difference here is that we're talking about a strategic flexibility as opposed to a flexibility in mana costs.

Lightning Bolt will be great in many different strategies regardless of the other cards surrounding it. Hedron Crab, on the other hand, can be fantastic in certain decks and useless in others. Its power is highly related to the cards that are around it so I would rate it very poorly in this category relative to a card like Lightning Bolt.

5) Will Be Played as a Four-of

The above four concepts feed into this once since if they score well in 1) through 4) you will likely want to play as many copies in your deck as you can. A lower casting cost also makes it easier to fit many copies of a card into a deck.

This isn't always the case, though, for example Dragonlord Ojutai was almost always played as a four-0f in Esper Dragons because it was extremely powerful and highly synergistic with the rest of the deck.

6) Complex and Therefore Difficult to Evaluate Blind

I think this is may be the key marker of a slam dunk spec. Why was Dig Through Time preordering at times for only $2 dollars when it was good enough to be banned in Legacy? The answer is it was hard for players to evaluate just how easy it was to pay the delve cost.

I know personally that Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and Hangarback Walker never stood out to me as broken cards until I actually played against them. It only took a few games on the other side of the table to realize that they were going to be Standard all-stars. Why was it so hard for me to realize ahead of time? I think it's because they are extremely complex cards that have a lot of things going on all at once.

If you are looking for the next slam dunk spec you should ask yourself: Why is this card great and why won't the average Magic player be able to figure it out?

SOI Cards with Slam Dunk Potential

Now let's try to apply the concepts above to the current Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) spoilers. The following are the cards that have a shot in my mind of being an eventual slam dunk as I have defined in this article. I'll give them a rating of poor, average, or good in each of the six attributes outlined above.

Note that I'm basing these specs off of the current SCG preorder prices on 3/24 as I am writing this article.

Always Watching

alwayswatching

Price: $2

1) Poor; 2) Poor; 3) Poor; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Average

Giving all of your creatures +1/+1 and vigilance is a powerful ability, but the mana cost is quite narrow and it only works with non-token creatures. Overall I don't think this is a great spec.

Descend upon the Sinful

descenduponthesinful

Price: $5

1) Good; 2) Average; 3) Good; 4) Poor; 5) Poor; 6) Average

I think this is reasonable spec, although not an amazing one. I can see the card being worth $10-$15 in the future if things go well (if delirium is easy to obtain and a six-mana wrath is where you want to be).

Geralf's Masterpiece

geralfsmasterpiece

Price: $5

1) Good; 2) Good; 3) Good; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Good

I like this spec. It is well-priced and does something that is potentially powerful and certainly very complex. Being able to cast a 7/7 flying at instant speed from your graveyard is powerful, although it certainly comes at a steep price.

Goldnight Castigator

goldnightcastigator

Price: $5

1) Good; 2) Average; 3) Average; 4) Good; 5) Good; 6) Good

I like this card, although it will be bad against certain matchups, most notably burn. I think a 4/5 flying haste is always going to be a powerful card in Standard. $5 dollars seems like a reasonable price. Assault Formation anyone?

Sinister Concoction

sinisterconcoction

Price: $0.25

1) Good; 2) Good; 3) Poor; 4) Good; 5) Average; 6) Average

Two mana to kill any creature is certainly a great rate, especially when the mana can be spent over two turns. In decks that can take advantage of the discard, it may even be better than "BB: Destroy target creature," for example in a reanimator deck.

Cheap removal has always been great---it's just a matter of whether or not it's worth the card disadvantage. Since Path to Exile fell into a similar category, I think this card will be great, although I am never excited about an uncommon spec.

Fevered Visions

feveredvisions

Price: $1

1) Good; 2) Poor; 3) Good; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Good

I really like this card. Howling Mine is generally a powerful effect, and this one tacks on a sort of Sulfuric Vortex as well as drawing you the first card (which is atypical). The card is quite narrow however since it will only fit into blue-red decks that want to play on a resource other than cards. Overall an average spec in my opinion.

Pious Evangel

piousevangel waywarddisciple

Price: $0.25

1) Good; 2) Good; 3) Poor; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Good

With the move towards more creature-centric decks in Standard, I find the Soul Warden effect to be quite strong. The flip side of this card is even stronger and has been put to great use in current Standard in the Rally deck. Overall, though, I think it is likely not a great spec.

Topplegeist

topplegeist

Price: $0.25

1) Good; 2)Good; 3) Poor; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Good

A card that's hard to evaluate and reasonably priced. As with all delirium cards, however, it is quite narrow strategically and therefore I don't see it as an amazing spec.

Rattlechains

rattlechains

Price: $2

1) Average; 2) Good; 3) Poor; 4) Poor; 5) Good; 6) Average

This card's power will depend a lot on what other spirits it has to work with. Overall a very powerful but narrow card. I am not sold on this spec.

Deathcap Cultivator

deathcapcultivator

Price: $2

1) Average; 2) Good; 3) Poor; 4) Good; 5) Good; 6) Poor

A very straightforward card. It provides mana fixing and acceleration which have historically been great in Standard, although the last one many of us remember was Sylvan Caryatid, which is likely miles better than the Cultivator. Overall I think this is a safe spec, but I am not very excited about it.

Ulvenwald Hydra

ulvenwaldhydra

Price: $3

1) Good; 2) Average; 3) Average; 4) Good; 5) Average; 6) Average

The thing I love most about this spec is that it's a $3 mythic that will likely fit into every green EDH deck. I picked up 40 copies off of SCG for $3 dollars each as soon as I saw the card spoiled. I'm interested to see how it turns out.

In the best case scenario it finds its way into a Standard ramp deck that gets you two turns closer to Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger when you find Shrine of the Forsaken Gods. Certainly unlikely to be a slam dunk spec, but has some nice casual qualities to it which are always super relevant for non-digital cards.

Conclusion

If I had to rank the current three specs from SOI most likely to be slam dunks they would be:

  1. Goldnight Castigator ($5)
  2. Geralf's Masterpiece ($5)
  3. Descend upon the Sinful ($5)

Keep in mind that physical speculation is not my specialty, although I have been right (lucky?) in the past on preorders. Dragonlord Ojutai and Goblin Rabblemaster come to mind. I hope you are all having as much fun with this spoiler season as I am! As always, thanks for reading, and let me know your own personal thoughts on preorders in the comments.

 

Song of the Week: Elder - Lore (Heavy Metal)

Enjoy!

High Stakes MTGO – Mar 13th to Mar 19th

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Hello and welcome back for another High Stakes MTGO article!

As the Shadow over Innistrad (SOI) spoilers list grows every day, Standard and even Modern prices are adjusting consequently. I haven't been able to buy all the cards I wanted to in Standard and if I already hold several Magic Origins (ORI) positions there are a lot of cards susceptible to increases from Dragon of Tarkir (DTK) and Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) that I should definitely put some tix into.

Whatever I end up buying, one of my goals with this new Standard rotation will be to capitalize on every card spike and not wait too long for hypothetical future growths. It's been a recurring problem with my Standard specs and I really intend to correct that from now on.

When a card has doubled in the wake of Pro Tour results, selling appears to have been the best move every time. The Warden of the First Tree scenario is something I do not wish to reproduce.

In Modern I'm trying to be as ready as possible for a another big change to the format. As usual the strategy is fairly linear here---buy everything that has been played in the past and that is low in price now. Selling into the hype of Eldrazi decks being weakened is also something I'm looking forward to.

The snapshot of my portfolio as of Saturday March 19th is here.

Buys This Week

drag

After reading Luca's article a week and a half ago it made sense that these two dragons were interesting targets. The reason I only bought these two Dragons of Tarkir cards at the moment is very simple: I have a limited amount of time to dedicate to MTGO specs these days and these two positions were among the most expensive DTK potential specs I didn't hold already. It makes it easier and faster therefore to invest more tix at once.

With DTK being a third large set, cards can spike more easily than Battle for Zendikar, for instance, and that's why I would rather focus on DTK than BFZ whenever my time is restricted.

Luca mentioned a lot of other great targets to keep an eye on. In the following weeks I'll try to squeeze in more of the positions he talked about which are susceptible to gain value after Standard rotates.

BFZ4

Four more playsets of BFZ full sets, as low as 58 tix this past week. The price is currently rebounding a little bit with everyone buying everything that's remotely synergistic with Shadows over Innistrad spoilers. We may have reached the absolute bottom for this set and I will probably buy another playset or two this week to seal my position with BFZ full sets.

CoS

A big spike followed by a big drop and Cavern of Souls is pretty much back to where it was pre-Eldrazi, when I bought my last round. This card certainly has a bright future and it seems like tribal SOI spoilers have already pushed the price of the Cavern up a bit this past week.

Cavern of Souls might well be over 40 tix again after the release of SOI and a change in the Modern ban list. At almost 25 tix per copy with the potential to double, that's the perfect target for my bankroll.

BM

My only spec after the 9th Edition flashback drafts. We'll see how it goes with a new Modern metagame but it is objectively a solid pick.

Note that all versions of Blood Moon are very similar in terms of prices. I happened to buy the 9th Edition version simply because it was the cheapest when I bought my copies. Price history doesn't really seem to point to a premium price for the Modern Masters version so I'm totally okay with white-bordered moons.

Sales This Week

Surprise, I sold some painlands this week! While Shivan Reef stabilizes around 3.5 tix, Yavimaya Coast is crushing the 1.5 tix bar. Two prices I'm happy to sell these two painlands at. Now I wish Llanowar Wastes and Battlefield Forge would follow their footsteps.

The last two positions from my February legacy specs. Force of Will didn't pan out as I expected but with a certain reprint this summer in Eternal Masters it was time to sell.

Lion's Eye Diamond on the contrary did pretty good and I actually sold while the price was still trending up. It has reached my goals and I don't want to risk being caught by surprise by collateral damages from SOI release events and the end of Legacy leagues. Overall, my seven Legacy specs made 418 tix.

Please, more of these! It is really satisfying when Modern prices fluctuate like this and you can ride the trends. What's even better here is to see such volatility in cards with an already high price tag that aren't bulk specs. Jace may have a shot at higher prices in a near future but here again that's perfectly in line with my strategy of moderate profits with the fastest turnover possible.

With Ravnica block flashback drafts launched this past week I cut my losses with a position that was absolutely not favored by the Eldrazi hegemony. The applications of Shadow of Doubt are rather limited in Modern but the current Modern flashback series is certainly creating a great buying opportunity if you wanted to buy in again.

One of the most powerful draw spells ever created. Only legal in Standard and unfortunately barely played in Standard. My fault only, this spec went right down the trash can. I was not trying to beat any record here but with a -95.2% and a loss of 101 tix this was for sure my worst spec ever.

On My Radar

The Legendary Cube Prize (PZ1) packs became last weekend not only my most successful booster specs, but entered the very small club of boosters that doubled in price, and the whole thing happened in less than four months.

PZ1 packs

Yesterday the buying price of PZ1 packs was over 2.8 tix at Goatbots and MTGO Traders. I could not pass up this opportunity to sell a few boosters with an incredible profit margin of more than 80%.

In the spirit of what I was saying in the introduction about taking sure profit while it's available, I will strongly consider selling more packs in the following days. The release of SOI and potential spoilers and rumors around EMA could negatively affect the price of PZ1 packs. Also, almost any day WotC can announce an MTGO event in which PZ1 would be awarded. With such a high price now, let's not take that risk.

I also have a few PZ1 singles. Similarly it may be time to sell some or all of them. Curiously the Legendary Cube set price hasn't followed the most recent price hike recorded for the packs.

PZ1 set

When I invested in PZ1 singles my focus was on Commander set cards and more specifically Commander 2015 cards only available through the PZ1 set. All my positions are up and some have tripled.

These nice price increases could be ruined if some of these cards are spoiled in EMA. We are still months away from more EMA spoilers but leaks seem to be common these days and I would expect players to focus more on Standard and Modern in a near future. A few cards from PZ1 are also played in Legacy and I would think the end of Legacy leagues mid-April could impact single and booster prices.

Finally, selling PZ1 positions now is good timing for reinvesting several hundred tix in BFZ and OGW singles and full sets.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Insider: Shadow Lands and the Waning Spoiler Season

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Last week I made the mistake of trusting an alleged number crunch that suggested there could be no five card land cycle in Shadows over Innistrad. I apologize for accepting what was clearly false as canon. As you all know by now, we have a full cycle of allied shadow lands.

chokedestuary

As I mentioned in my review of the lands, they play rather awkwardly with battle lands. When it comes to two-color allied decks, just playing the full eight is an easy choice to make sure you get your colors, though the sequencing is awkward to make sure your lands come into play untapped on the proper turns---not to mention that shadow lands off the top are just tapped lands.

Even with access to another cycle of allied lands, building three-color "shard" decks with good mana is proving difficult. If you start with the full four battle and shadow lands of both allied pairs you have already eaten 16 land spaces and have two colors with only eight sources in the deck.

Tossing a set of painlands or creature lands into the fold cleans up the mana a little bit, though suddenly playing a battle land or shadow land untapped is looking unlikely, with only four to six more slots for basics. Another option is Evolving Wilds, though it doesn't help with the awkwardness of the shadow lands in a deck that wants quite a lot of non-basics.

Realistically, I'm thinking that allied three-color decks are mostly going to be splashing the third color. An allied three-color deck might be possible, though enemy manabases look much more promising.

With an enemy manabase you get to start with eight painlands if you so choose. Not always the most forgiving manabase, though there's a lot to be said for casting your spells on time. The next givens are a set of Evolving Wilds, which leaves you with eight sources of the allied pair in your wedge and twelve sources of your base color using only twelve land slots.

Adding four of an allied land and three of each basic, you end up with 25 lands and 15 sources of each color. You can replace some painlands with creature lands, play with some number of basics and even add another allied land or two from here as well.

The numbers just end up working more cleanly here with lands that make casting your spells on time easier. I'm sure Frank Karsten will end up with a sweet statistical breakdown of how to build these manabases, though this surface level analysis is a solid baseline.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cinder Glade

So here's an interesting question. If you want to build a wedge manabase, do you bias your mana towards more battle lands or more shadow lands? I believe the answer is battle lands, and that it's not close.

Shadow lands coming in tapped off the top of the deck is a problem, and I also think Evolving Wilds is just going to be a huge part of these manabases. Wilds not only doesn't reveal to a shadow land, but also means you're more likely to have the requisite two basics to make your battle land come in untapped. Just one more reason to be buying into battle lands. If you've been watching these lands, they're already on the rise.

While two-color decks are totally serviceable, the reason I'm interested in three-color decks is of course to jam as many excellent cards into the same shell as possible. People will undoubtedly be working to play Reflector Mage and Collected Company in the same deck, though there are plenty of other "good stuff" packages worth exploring.

Given the information we have revealed right now, I want to find a way to play Archangel Avacyn with this package:

Nothing fancy here. No desire to use Jace to enable madness. Just a mishmash of very powerful spells to test the waters. While the supporting cast isn't entirely clear until we both have the full spoiler and know exactly what kind of answers we want for the format, it's good to at least know that we can play something close to this:

Jeskai Control

Creatures

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
4 Archangel Avacyn
4 Reflector Mage
1 Dragonmaster Outcast

Spells

4 Silkwrap
4 Fiery Impulse
4 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3 Chandra, Flamecaller
2 Roast
2 Ojutai's Command
1 Oath of Jace
1 Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

Lands

4 Battlefield Forge
4 Shivan Reef
4 Evolving Wilds
4 Prairie Stream
2 Wandering Fumarole
2 Needle Spires
2 Island
2 Mountain
2 Plains

As I said, the numbers are rough, but the idea is clear and it will be easy to move things around. There is a shell for great removal, an amazing planeswalker suite, some good tempo spells, and the mana is acceptable. As I build decks going forward, it will be important to assess whether these decks can beat all of these great spells, and also whether they combine to be even comparable to a shell like this.

The biggest draw to this shell, and indeed the most important test for this format, is the ability to either cast your own Gideons or get out in front of opposing ones. Collected Company could still give Gideon a run for its money, though now that that mana isn't good enough and the namesake card from Four-Color Rally is gone, I fully expect Gideon to see a massive resurgence.

The more I see from the spoiler, the more confident I get in this position. It's unclear just what kind of heights Gideon can hit being from an Expedition set, though the fact that it has barely ever dipped below $20 is a good sign that it will be able to increase in value as it sees more play. I'd be amazed if Gideon didn't at least break $30 in the coming months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

The power level of Gideon is one of the reasons I think a particular spoiler from Shadows over Innistrad is undervalued. I wrote a piece on the free side about Goldnight Castigator in which I explained how Castigator will definitely be a maindeck or sideboard card for red decks, and the only question is which will be the case. Given that Castigator comes in and wrecks Gideon the turn that it comes down, it's possible that Castigator is excellently positioned to shine in Shadows Standard.

goldnightcastigator

The drawback on this card is clearly something that must be taken seriously, though four is a very high number for evasive haste damage, and tanking Gideon is likely to matter a lot. This card is pre-ordering for around $5, and I'm confident in picking up a few sets. A good aggressive red deck or even a Boros deck featuring Gideons of its own would be looking for some good filler from the rest of Shadows, though there is still plenty of set left to see.

Other than that most of the set seems to be properly valued or overvalued---and there's no shortage of cards that are overvalued. A potential breakout card as pointed out by Jim Davis is Traverse the Ulvenwald. Is delirium easily achievable? I believe it is with Vessel of Nascency.

vesselofnascency traversetheulvenwald

A Worldly Tutor that puts the creature directly into your hand with the utility of fixing your mana in the early game adds an insane amount of consistency to a deck. Whether this is better than just jamming Collected Company is unclear, though the incentive is real. As Jim Davis points out, this is a tremendous boon to the ramp deck as well.

These are currently pre-ordering in the $2-3 range, which for a regular rare is a bit on the risky side. Given the buy-in here, I don't like buying more than two sets, but this card could easily end up as a $6-8 card if there are one or two decks that jam it as a four-of---which I can easily see happening in the form of ramp and delirium.

~

There's still a lot to see with regard to Shadows over Innistrad, though we'll have the full spoiler soon. There are likely to be synergistic pieces for decks revealed as of yet, though most of the big reveals are out of the way. At this time I'm still convinced that Avacyn is a reasonable buy at $25, though unfortunately there's not much in the way of sleepers.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Shadows Over Innistrad Set Review and Decklists, Pt. 1

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last week I laid the groundwork for our Shadows Over Innistrad analysis, looking back on previous set releases throughout Modern’s history to get a better grasp of where our expectations should be going into the set. For those that missed it, you can catch up here.

CB_4

In that article, I briefly discussed [tippy title="Arlinn Lord" width="330" height="330"]1_arlinn[/tippy], [tippy title="Declaration in Stone" width="330" height="330"]Declaration in Stone[/tippy], [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy], and [tippy title="Nahiri, the Harbinger" width="330" height="330"]1_nahiri[/tippy]. Today, we’ll be taking a deeper look through the 154 cards spoiled in Shadows Over Innistrad so far and looking at some speculative decklists! With Shadows coming out April 8th and a highly likely Eldrazi ban accompanying it, we’re looking at a double dose of shake-ups to the Modern status quo. Let’s get busy!

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Olivia, Mobilized for War

I initially overlooked this card in my review last week, but upon second glance I think it “might” be worth a shot. [tippy title="Olivia, Mobilized for War" width="330" height="330"]oliviamobilizedforwar[/tippy] is definitely fragile, but that didn’t stop players from running Olivia Voldaren from time to time, and oliviamobilizedforwarshe even cost a full extra mana! As they share a name, it’s a natural starting point to compare the two versions together, but once you get past their shared pedigree the similarities disappear pretty rapidly.

Olivia Voldaren, as a 3/3 flyer for 2BR, wasn’t breaking any records as far as rate was concerned, yet her activated abilities more than made up for her relatively weak stats. The ability to both shoot down opposing x/1s (mana creatures, Lingering Souls, combining with Lightning Bolt to kill Deceiver Exarch) and steal creatures on a stalled board was the real reason she saw play. A nightmare for Pod decks in that era, Olivia Voldaren almost exclusively appeared as a one- or two-of in Jund lists, often in place of Huntmaster of the Fells. Where the player fell on the Huntmaster/Olivia spectrum depended entirely on the metagame, as Olivia was better against Lingering Souls/grindy creature decks and Huntmaster was better against blue decks and at stabilizing.

The power level of [tippy title="Olivia, Mobilized for War" width="330" height="330"]oliviamobilizedforwar[/tippy] depends entirely on the synergies we build around her. A 3/3 for 1BR is slightly less embarrassing, but still way under curve if we are not benefiting from her ability. As far as that trigger goes, there are two directions we can take her: Vampire Tribal, or Madness.

"Olivia Vampires, by Trevor Holmes"

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Olivia, Mobilized for War
4 Asylum Visitor
4 Dark Confidant
4 Falkenrath Gorger
4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Vampire Lacerator

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Terminate
1 Dismember

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize

Land

4 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Polluted Delta
3 Scalding Tarn
3 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Keldon Megaliths

So, this list is almost assuredly trash. [tippy title="Olivia, Mobilized for War" width="330" height="330"]oliviamobilizedforwar[/tippy] is a solid aggressive card and great madness/hellbent enabler, except for the slight problem that there really aren’t any exciting madness/hellbent cards we really want to play. Infernal Tutor is probably the best reason to be hellbent, and once we are, what are we going to do? Infernal Tutor for Lightning Bolt? No thanks.

falkenrathgorgerWhat this list does do, however, is show us how far we can push the aggressive end of Olivia. [tippy title="Asylum Visitor" width="330" height="330"]Asylum Visitor temp[/tippy] is the best “hellbent” payoff I’ve seen, acting as a better Dark Confidant if we can just dump our hand. 17 one-drops helps with this, and being able to play eight Dark Confidant effects means one is more likely to stick.

[tippy title="Falkenrath Gorger" width="330" height="330"]falkenrathgorger[/tippy] is interesting, it turns all our Vampires into madness cards and when combined with [tippy title="Olivia, Mobilized for War" width="330" height="330"]oliviamobilizedforwar[/tippy] we can chain as many Vamps as we can afford onto the battlefield with haste and +1/+1. This seems cute, but imagine a turn sequence like this:

  • Turn 1: Stromkirk Noble
  • Turn 2: Thoughtseize, Vampire Lacerator, attack for 1 (or play a two-drop)
  • Turn 3: Olivia, attack for 4
  • Turn 4: Gorger (discard Visitor) madness in Visitor, discard and madness in another Vampire Lacerator, attack for 17 (3/3 Olivia, 3/3 Stromkirk, 3/2 Falkenrath, 3/2 Visitor, 3/3 Lacerator, 2/2 Lacerator)

That’s obviously nothing compared to what the Eldrazi are doing nowadays, but they aren’t long for this world and we might be looking at a landscape where Abzan Company is one of the best decks. Company is capable of fast turns, but often they are looking at awkward grips trying to make them work while we’re unloading haste creatures and refilling our hand. Plus, the above scenario didn’t factor in Bloodghast at all. Aside from Burning Inquiry, new Olivia is the best Bloodghast enabler I’ve seen in a while.

Speaking of Burning Inquiry, maybe it has a place in the above list, but I’m more excited to see what Olivia can do in a true value style deck.

Olivia Combo, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

3 Griselbrand
4 Bloodghast
3 Olivia, Mobilized for War
4 Asylum Visitor

Instants

3 Goryo's Vengeance

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

2 Burning Inquiry
4 Lingering Souls
4 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Faithless Looting

Lands

5 Swamp
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Arid Mesa

Another experiment, this time combining some new cards with the old Griselbrand-Breach deck into more of a midrange amalgamation. Rather than do nothing until the combo (hopefully) works, this list plays a solid board-control/midrange game, buying time with Lingering Souls and digging through the deck with Burning Inquiry/Faithless Looting to eventually Goryo's Vengeance back a Griselbrand for a fair swing for seven and a new hand. What excites me about this list is how it can transform after board to be more all-in or remove combo elements entirely. It will be interesting to see where I am on the “enabler” spectrum, and if I really need all that dig or if I can start trimming some for removal/more discard, which will make this list look a lot better.

Thalia’s Lieutenant

This gal is pretty simple to evaluate: a 1/1 for 1W that anthems your Humans when she comes in to play. As if she was anticipating the “win-more” naysayers, she also grows with every Human you play after her. While she’s pretty one-dimensional and might not be good enough to hang with the hyper-synergies present in other linear aggressive decks like Affinity and Eldrazi, for some reason I like this lady. Maybe it’s the art, maybe it’s because she’s Human: there’s just something about this card that quietly whispers “Blue Collar Under-Appreciated American” that I can get behind. So, naturally, we’ll toss her into the most annoying, unfair deck we can find.

Naya Humans, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
3 Boros Elite
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Mayor of Avabruck
4 Lightning Mauler

Instants

4 Atarka's Command
3 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Cavern of Souls
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
2 Temple Garden
3 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

[tippy title="Thalia's Lieutenant" width="330" height="330"]thaliaslieutenant[/tippy] is a gigantic upgrade for Naya Blitz decks, pushing their aggressive draws even farther at its best, and acting as a slower Champion of the Parish at its worst. Really the only reason to play Humans over Affinity or Zoo is the Champion of the Parish draws with Burning-Tree Emissary and thaliaslieutenantMayor of Avabruck. [tippy title="Thalia's Lieutenant" width="330" height="330"]thaliaslieutenant[/tippy] gives the deck some much needed consistency and more power to boot. Now that we have enough solid Humans we can cut the Ghor-Clan Rampager/Boros Charm combo that was always a little too awkward and focus on doing what we do best: attacking.

Kytheon, Hero of Akros was deemed “not good enough” the first time around, but if we’re buffing even 2-3 Humans on average with [tippy title="Thalia's Lieutenant" width="330" height="330"]thaliaslieutenant[/tippy] then all those one drops start to look a lot better. Plus, with battle cry triggers, Kytheon would let us run headfirst into Tarmogoyf and the like with impunity. As anyone who has played this deck knows, Naya Blitz players love their impunity. Keep an eye on this one. Barring any major spoilers I’ll more than likely be battling with this immediately post-ban.

Traverse the Ulvenwald

This is the type of card that almost gets there on rate alone, but can be busted wide open with the right synergies. In Modern, we know from traversetheulvenwaldTarmogoyf experience it’s relatively easy to activate Delerium, but once we do, what are we looking for? We’re never trading a card for a basic land, so the failstate here is useless, and though searching up creature bullets is fine, I wonder if it’s really worth it? Sure, being able to grab Spellskite against Infect is decent, but is it worth taking up a sideboard slot that could have just been another Spellskite? In matches where we need that bullet creature, it's not like we can cash in the tutor for something "normal." We're almost always just getting that creature, so we might as well play an extra copy of it in our board. In “normal” decks, is playing Traverse really that much better than just an extra copy of whatever you were looking for? What I mean by "normal" is archetypes that might play one toolbox creature (such as that Spellskite), not an archetype that has a multitude of options at its disposal.

By that, I mean Abzan Company. Assuming we can activate delirium (we’ll get to that) being able to immediately search up any combo piece rather than “oops-ing” into it with Collected Company seems insane, and is worth taking a look at. We do have Chord of Calling, but the difference between G and XGGG with a board of creatures is huge. Yes, with Chord you can opponent-end step the spell, but wouldn’t it be so much better to just main-phase your tutor the turn before (or turn of!) rather than having to wait?

Here, it really comes down to whether we can afford to play non-creature spells to afford [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]traversetheulvenwald[/tippy]. But that pulls us away from Collected Company. I’m not entirely sure what the answer to this question is, as a Traverse Abzan combo deck would probably look a lot different than a traditional Collected Company list, but it’s worth exploring. It is possible that the answer involves incorporating [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]traversetheulvenwald[/tippy] into the Spike Feeder combo deck, as that combo can’t be helped by Collected Company anyways. I'm thinking something along the lines of Matthew Rogers' Pro Tour list, but with some more removal and Traverse added. I'll be tinkering with this and should have a decklist soon after release: let me know if you plan on working on this as well!

Shadows Lands

The new Check-Lands cycle seems interesting with shocklands and what-not, and is definitely more powerful than the battle-land cycle (for Modern at least). Even so, I’m not sure if they will quite get there.

Check_Lands

In three color decks, manabases contain more fetchlands than actual lands, which means even with a land in hand these guys still might fail and come in tapped. In addition, low land counts mean any land past the third isn’t a guarantee, so if we’re expecting to play this in the first three turns than why aren’t we just playing fastlands? I would rate them behind the Scars of Mirrodin fastlands in terms of playability, and those only see minor play in a few archetypes.

Conclusion

We're a little over halfway through the set and we already have a lot to talk about. The four-mana planeswalkers will definitely not make the transition into Modern, but the set contains enough oddities and unique effects that I imagine we’ll see at least one (or more) of them pop up, at least for a while. Currently, we have no breakout Snapcaster Mages, Liliana of the Veils, or Geist of Saint Trafts to discuss, but that doesn’t mean we couldn’t get one in the full spoiler. As you’re reading this, the full spoiler should be out tomorrow, so here’s me crossing my fingers from the past that one of the Big Three gets reprinted. Or, something else flashy gets printed between now and publication that we can talk about next week. Until then, good look brewing and let me know in the comments what you find out! (And how bad my lists are...)

Thanks for reading!

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Insider: Lessons From Buying a Collection

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It all started with a missed phone call at 9:03 pm. After a seemingly normal day, my kids called me into their bedroom. Sometimes they ask me to put on some fun pop punk to go to sleep to and during their relaxing rock-out time my phone rang. As a dad, I don’t normally get phone calls that late so I was very curious what the call was about.

My missed call was from my business partner, a good friend, who I own my shop with. He wanted to know if I thought buying Modern Master 2015 boxes at a discounted rate was a good idea. I responded with, “Heck yes!”

After working out many awkward details like why the shop owner wouldn’t take our credit card over the phone, I made arrangements to drive an hour and a half to a shop in the middle of nowhere to purchase eight boxes of the Modern reprint set at an insane rate. As it turns out, this shop I was headed to was going out of business.

Making the Trek

I always find it interesting to go to a variety of shops because every business owner has a different outlook about how to run things. Take this particular place for example. The owner decided it would be best to combine Magic with skateboarding into one interesting business. That’s something you don’t see every day, but it’s not the first such combo I’ve seen.

Getting into the shop required some knowledge of the building layout lest you got lost in a maze of hallways on your way back to the room. This may have detracted from his business so if you're looking to open somewhere to sell your wares, be extremely careful about the location you choose. They say location, location, location, but it truly is essential for success.

In situations like this it's often best to go with someone for a little extra safety, but I was meeting a friend here so I wasn’t concerned. There have been collections I’ve gone to see in seedier parts of Pittsburgh for which I take my brother with a concealed weapon along just in case. Know where you are going and make sure your safety is never a problem.

The shop was long and narrow with a small play area, but to my surprise, they had multiple cases dedicated to singles. Of course I took a couple minutes to peruse the inventory and see if there were any good deals to be had. As it turns out, despite ridiculously good deals on the MM15 boxes, the owner was unwilling to negotiate his TCG Mid-priced singles.

Let’s talk about that briefly. If you are going out of business and fire-selling your sealed product, what’s the point of not doing the same with the singles? Most of the cards were Standard-legal from Battle and Oath, so they will be in the format for another year, but holding singles has a much higher downside than sealed product.

As a business owner myself, I feel like this mentality was a misplay. Were I in charge, I would have swapped the products in how I dealt with them or I would have moved the whole inventory. Basically, holding the boxes is good value, whereas holding the singles is risking lowering your margin significantly. Either way, I wasn’t in charge here but that doesn’t mean I didn’t try to see if he would be willing to let me buy his singles inventory as well as his sweet boxes.

As shop owner and his wife started getting the boxes together for me to purchase, I noticed they had an opened box sitting on the shelf. You might say, it’s good enough to finish the buy and move on with your profit, but I would say take advantage of all opportunities that present themselves. So, I asked how much it would be for the opened box as well. We were able to agree on a price, which was basically a percentage of the cost of a full box price based on the remaining packs.

Eight and 2/3’s boxes would be enough for most people but right before I was about to finish, I noticed some updated price stickers on a couple Conspiracy boxes. $75 each! I couldn’t pass up on that opportunity either so I had him add those to my bill as well and I walked out with all the sealed product in one giant heap.

On my way home I was so excited and also distracted by my GPS trying to find the highway that I missed a speed limit drop and ended up going home with a ticket in addition to my sealed product. Even if you play 99% of the game correctly, that one misplay can cost you. Keep that one in mind for the future.

This endeavor definitely paid off. We were able to double up on the purchase within one month. Our customers were thrilled to be able to buy MM15 boxes and packs again and we were able to make a bunch of money in the process. It was a win for everyone with a bonus speeding ticket as the price I apparently had to pay to make it happen.

Finance Tips

This whole experience reminded me of some key concepts about Magic finance. So, in addition to story time, I wanted to share the concepts that I’ve boiled down into some useful financial tips of the trade.

Arrange the Details

Determine the details of the deal ahead of time. To set up this particular deal, I spent an hour sorting out everything before I left to make the drive. There is no sense in driving somewhere on a hunch so if possible, make sure you know what you’re getting yourself into. Some things to keep in mind are your safety, the amount of the purchase, and a list of exactly what you will be purchasing.

Most of the time, stories like this involve buying singles or a collection. Many times I’ve gone on the road to inspect collections for sale. When that happens, often you don’t know what you’re going to find. Sometimes you have to make the drive and check things out for yourself.

Usually, if the collection has a reasonable price one of two things will happen. First, you could be seeing another finance expert peddling their leftovers as a collection. I have not found this to be the case most of the time.

The more likely scenario is where the person selling their cards has no idea what they have. When this is the case, they usually put a negotiable amount that they are looking to get for their time and effort collecting.

In these situations, don’t forget that you can negotiate the price. You don’t have to commit to the buy before you see exactly what they're offering. Pictures can be misleading so inspect what’s offered before finalizing the deal. I usually take some time to flip through the cards before agreeing to anything.

Keep an Open Mind

Just because you set out to buy something doesn’t mean you are forced to, but also it doesn’t mean you can’t add to what was offered.

Plenty of time people assume no one wants certain parts of their collection. The thought is that no one wants random commons and uncommons, but we all know there is gold hidden within those boxes. There are also gaming supplies that frequently get left out of deals like play mats, binders, dice, carrying cases, etc.

All of that can make you extra money, so keep your eyes open to alter the deal further. Basically be Darth Vader, if you get my reference. Don’t be shady like the dark lord of the Sith, but altering deals for both parties' benefit is always a plus.

In my story, I wouldn’t have made as much money if I didn’t ask about the partial MM15 box or looked around to find the two Conspiracy boxes. Lots of stores have good deals, so take some time to explore your area. There are finance opportunities online, but most of the deals are hiding in stores all over the world.

My friend recently went to a shop where every common was 10 cents and every uncommon 25 cents. These prices had nothing to do with the actual value of the card, so there were tons of deals to be had. Knowing what commons and uncommons are worth is a huge boon when buying a collection too. They can help make your margin better.

Make sure you pick your bulk for valuables and don't be afraid to look a bunch of cards up. There are tons of articles in the archives and forums on Quiet Speculation that can help with this process as well. You can even scan the cards with the new Ion Core scanner tool to cut down on data entry time.

There are always bulk rare box deals waiting for you to find too. Even if you are a finance expert, people miss things or don’t have time to micromanage their bulk rares. We are still happy to sell you a card we paid 10 cents on for a dollar even if it’s worth two, but you can make a lot of money scouring through bulk rares. Recently I pulled a bunch of Reforge the Souls from bulk. Did you know that card is almost $3?

So, make sure you look for other deals, see if you can get a better deal, and most of all, make sure you’re getting your money's worth from every purchase.

Manage Your Finances

One finance aspect that often goes unnoticed is what you do to make sure you have funds available. Some people have extra cash lying around, but if you’re like me, you have to manage your purchases carefully in order to afford things like buying a collection.

There are two things I do to ensure I have money to make the buy. First of all, I tend not to focus on long-term investments. It’s not that long-term investments are bad, but they tie up your money for too long. I would rather make short-term investments and reap the profit quickly even if it’s less than what I would make holding something for a couple years. This is precisely why I don’t invest in sealed product that I don’t plan on selling.

Of course there are exceptions to this rule. Most recently we have Expedition and fetch lands. Both of these are great long-term investments. If you don’t have any of these, start making them a priority because they are almost a sure thing in terms of investing.

Last time fetches were printed, I buylisted every one I could get off of people. They were eager to dump their rotating lands. With Modern being so prominent now, I doubt as many players will have this mentality, but some certainly will. If you find those opportunities seize them immediately before someone else gets your free money.

The shock lands are another example of an obvious investment. Before these rotated out of Standard, my goal was to buy so many of these that I would have to figure out how to store them.

With some of this cycle I was successful at achieving that goal, but a few of them I wasn’t able to accomplish that objective. I found that the Gatecrash duals weren’t being sold to us as quickly as I would have liked. Did other shops have the same trend take place? Of that, I’m not certain, but although it took a while, we are finally starting to see an uptick in the prices of these cards.

Getting back to the core of managing your finances, the second principle I utilize might be a bit more ubiquitous. Every year, I save as much of my tax return as I can. This helps with being prepared for life mishaps like the dryer breaking while at the same time giving you access to a sum of money to invest with.

If you are showing gains on each of your investments, you should have money all year to leverage. Everyone’s finances are unique so take your own situation into consideration before making your purchases.

Act Quickly

Most of the opportunities I been involved with have been at the spur of the moment. In our story today, I left my house at 10 pm. Other times, I met someone after work or at midnight in a bank parking lot.

My friends and I joke that many of these situations would seem like drug deals to outside eyes. Don’t be afraid of your cardboard crack deals and take advantage of the situation even if it doesn’t happen at the best time. Often you need to fit the buy into your schedule rather than expecting the seller to fit into yours.

Make Contacts and Treat Them Well

Many words have been written about being an honest businessman. This way of operating sets you up for return customers. For instance, if you are generous and honest when buying an acquaintance’s collection, they might contact you on Facebook a decade later and ask you to buy a foil Italian Future Sight Tarmogoyf and just give them as much money as you can because their boyfriend randomly acquired it back in the day and they thought it would be worth some money.

(True story, by the way, and while you should make your money where you can, I recommend staying as far away from Italian language cards as you can because jeez those cards are hard to move. You know you have an ugly duckling when every dealer at a Grand Prix says pass when you show them the card in question.)

In any case many friends have sold me their collection multiple times because I was fair the first time, so they came back to me a second or third time.

Having a reputation as an honest collection buyer in your area will get you referrals as well. I’ve gotten messages from friends about someone they know selling their cards. Of course I’m interested and often I give a finder’s fee without prompting because I recognize I wouldn’t have ever known about the collection without their help. When you treat your referrals well, they are likely to bring your more business.

With the MM15 boxes, I traded one of them to the friend who told us about the deal for a pile of cards we could put in our inventory. It was good for everyone. He got sweet buy prices and a discounted MM15 box, and we got lots of product and some bonus singles to have available.

~

To wrap it all up with a nice finance bow: Remember to decipher all the details of the situation before you get involved, be open to additional opportunities, manage your finances so you can always make the buy, be swift in confirming your interest, and finally, treat the seller well and give them honest numbers so you both can make some money and no one gets ripped off.

These are some of the tips I’ve learned over the years from buying collections and owing my own store. If these tips were helpful, let me know in the comments. If everyone liked this article, I can write more articles like these when the situation arises. We can all learn from the circumstances we find ourselves involved in.

If you have a good buying story, I’d love to hear about it in the comments as well. Next week we will dive into Shadows over Innistrad, so stay tuned for the discussion about those sweet new cards! Vampires, werewolves and zombies, oh my!

Until next time,
Unleash the Finance Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

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Mike Lanigan

Mike Lanigan is high school math teacher by day and a shop owner by night. His tournament grinding may have slowed a little, but his love of the game has not. Mike's goal is to bring you a mix of perspectives from shop-owner insights to finance tips to metagame shifts and everything in between.

View More By Mike Lanigan

Posted in Business, Buying, Finance, Free InsiderTagged , 2 Comments on Insider: Lessons From Buying a Collection

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Fixing Modern: Improving Communication

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Welcome to our second "Fixing Modern" column, where we define Modern's most ingrained challenges and offer actionable solutions. Our goal is to give a voice to the many Moderners who have already identified our format's longstanding difficulties, but currently lack the words or platform to express them. If nothing else, I hope "Fixing Modern" can empower players to discuss these issues in a candid and informed manner. Or maybe it inspires Wizards to launch their own "Fixing Modern" month on the Magic homepage! And then 2016 will see that Damnation reprint too... Even if Aaron Forsythe and his team never so much as see the title, we'll still discuss "Fixing Modern" on the Nexus. In that spirit of writing, dialogue, and exchanging ideas, today's article focuses on the critical issue of communication, both from Wizards to the players, and from the community back up to our non-Eldrazi overlords.

Azors Elocuters art

Last week, I launched "Fixing Modern" with an in-depth analysis of Modern's mission. Or, rather, its lack of a clear mission. Whether you agree with our ending point or still didn't buy that Modern had a problem at all, "Fixing Modern: Defining Format Mission" is an important introduction to the methods and style I'll follow in this column. Hopefully, today's article prompts the same thoughtful discussion as we saw after our exploration of format mission. After all, communication is just as central to Modern's health as the solid ground of a functional mission statement, and it's something Modern has sorely lacked for years. In today's piece, we'll map out the scope and consequences of Modern's communication woes before offering some suggestions for improvements.

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Communication 101

As a concept, "communication" is one of those everyday terms which everyone knows intuitively until they try explaining it. Naturally, there are many ways to define the concept, whether in the context of gaming, management, public relations, or all the other realms spanning "Fixing Modern's" purview. To keep things simple, here's how we'll understand "communication" throughout today's article:

CommunicationNoun
1. The exchange of ideas and information between parties through a common system.
2. Something to work on with your spouse, significant other, or partner.
3. A process that breaks down at the very mention of Splinter Twin.

Well, mostly just #1. But #2 is important too! As for #3, that's a specter we'll try dodging from here until the article's end. Thinking primarily about #1, this main definition contains a few elements worth highlighting.

Cultural ExchangeFirst, we're interested in the exchange of ideas and information, not just their one-way delivery. For Modern's purposes, this means the two-way street from Wizards to players and players right back up. It's important to establish that up-front before we start blaming Wizards for everything: "exchange" demands multiple parties. Second, we care about not just information but also ideas. Communication can't just be news bulletins and email blasts. If you're in a workplace like mine, I'm sure you pay about as much attention to emails that begin "Hi Staff!" as you do to the guy on Reddit who claims Cloudpost deserves its Modern freedom. This process requires both updates and knowledge-sharing (information), but also feedback and proposals (ideas). Finally, we care about a common system of communication, not just an ad hoc patchwork. It must be common in being widely understood and accepted, and systemic in having structure and clear expectations.

These are lofty goals for any communication campaign, let alone one surrounding something as massive as Modern. Then again, "Fixing Modern" is a lofty goal period, so it's fitting to have a lofty goal at the outset. Unfortunately, as we'll see in the next section, both Wizards and players are well under this bar in some of the most important Modern-related interactions.

Failure to Communicate

Now that we've united around a shared definition, we can outline where communication has failed in the past. This follows our method from the last article of first, identifying a problem, and second, explaining why it is a problem. To do so, we'll need to dock all our gripes orbiting the central communication issue (Bans! Unbans! Pro Tours! My Innocent Blood reprint!) and focus on defining the communication gap itself. Because something like the Twin ban is too polarizing, even if it's intimately connected with our topic, I'm going to draw on a less divisive, but perhaps even more damning, example from Modern's history to illustrate the communication failures between Wizards and players.

Reformatting the 2015 Pro Tour scene

Wizards' decision to make Standard the only Pro Tour 2015 Constructed format, and then their decision to switch Pro Tour Fate Reforged to Modern, is one of the most defining communication blunders in Modern's history. In one event spanning only eight days, the incident laid bare all Wizards' and the community's communication problems, not to mention setting the stage for a series of other failures for years to come. I've written about this historic moment before, but I'm revisiting it today in the context of "Fixing Modern."

Deathrite ShamanThroughout the first half of 2014, Modern was in a great place. Grand Prix Boston-Worcester drew 2,460 players in the last weekend of July, with Grand Prix Richmond shattering tournament records at 4,303 attendees in March. Wizards had banned Deathrite Shaman back on February 3 and simultaneously released Wild Nacatl and Bitterblossom from their unjust confinement. The BGx Midrange menace was tamed, but also remained competitive. Modern never looked healthier, whether from a metagame or attendance perspective. Overall, it felt like Modern was booming and Wizards could do little wrong with the beloved format.

Public perception flipped on August 2, 2014, when Helene Bergeot, Director of Organized Play, announced the Pro Tour formats for 2015: Standard and Booster Draft. The Modern Pro Tour, which had existed since 2011, was dead. In the following days, the outcry on social media, the content-sphere, and the collective online community was deafening. Players accused Wizards of everything from deliberately killing the format to trying to sell packs for Standard, and I couldn't find a single Modern article from the time range that didn't at least question the decision, if not outright condemn it. A mere eight days later, Wizards reversed course. They edited their original announcement to reflect changing Pro Tour Fate Reforged from Standard to Modern, and published a press release explaining the reversal. The community rejoiced, Wizards breathed a sigh of relief, and the format went on, momentarily distracted by just how formative the moment had been.

Setting the August stage (on fire)

To understand why this incident was such a communication mess, we need to start with Bergeot's original article. The piece has since been overwritten (don't worry: we'll get to that foible later). Thankfully, the Wayback Machine saves the day again. Here's what the unedited August 2 article had to say about both the decision to Standardize the 2015 Pro Tours, and Modern's fate over the year:

"The first thing you may notice about this schedule is the format, which is consistent among all Pro Tours next year. Standard is the most commonly sanctioned event by a large margin, and it rewards players who are both good deck builders as well as skilled players.

While Modern is not a Constructed format that will be used in 2015's Pro Tours, it will still see Premier Play support. Next year's Grand Prix schedule will continue to include Modern as one of the primary Constructed formats, and the 2014 Magic World Championship this December will also showcase Modern during Day Two and the Top 4."
Helene Bergeot, "2015 Pro Tour and Grand Prix Schedule Revealed" (August 2, 2014)

These quotes represented the entirety of Wizards' official position on the Pro Tour decision at the time of publication. There was no additional context given in the article or in a parallel piece, no intervening explanation between the first and second paragraphs, and no later discussion on the issue at all. No wonder people got mad! For one, Bergeot's assessment of Standard, which "rewards players who are both good deck builders as well as skilled players," made it sound like other formats (namely Modern) didn't accomplish those goals. If not, why mention it for Standard specifically? How else was a jilted Modern community going to read a line like that? Certainly not as a hidden compliment to their rejected format.

To be clear, this isn't an indictment of Bergeot's writing, competence, or editors. It's merely highlighting a major problem which went unnoticed: in one blow,  Wizards both hacked Modern out of the Pro Tour after three years and delivered a backhanded insult to the removed format. In offering zero explanation about why this decision was made, Reparationsthe update left players to speculate on social media and in forum discussions, not to mention gravitate towards the account of Standard being the only format "reward[ing] players" for deck-building and skill.

The second paragraph, the only reference to Modern in the entire article, only made matters worse. These lines read as if Bergeot and her team knew Modern players would be unhappy with this decision, preempting those objections with this olive branch. By all accounts, they genuinely believed it would prevent or placate angry Modern mobs. To me, that's even more representative of communication issues than if Wizards had said nothing at all. Silence could have been interpreted as an executive decision to stay mute on the issue. This read as nothing more than a public-relations consolation prize. "Sorry we killed your format. At least there's the Grand Prix!" This is not to say Wizards had some sinister agenda to screw over Modern players and dismiss our concerns. Rather, it's to emphasize how seemingly small, likely honest communication errors can balloon into major problems.

Tweeting up a storm

After processing the announcement, the Modern community went nuts, and Wizards staff took to social media to offer some context around the decision and calm the torch-bearing masses. In doing so, they not only failed to soothe the raging hordes, but also exposed the weaknesses in Bergeot's initial release. They even managed to introduce some of Modern's most longstanding and contentious ideas, creating problems both for this particular incident and for subsequent Pro Tours and ban updates for years to come.

In the 24 hours following the announcement, Aaron Forsythe and Tom LaPille, both major movers in Magic's R&D sphere, led the charge to clarify Wizards' decision. Although these are not the only comments the two made, these are by far the most important, both in August 2014 and in hindsight:

Tom-LaPille-Modern-Tweet

On the one hand, Forsythe's and LaPille's messages offered succinct, (presumably) honest, and patently reasonable accounts for distancing the Pro Tour from Modern. I appreciated their candor during this incident, and I know many other players felt the same. Whether or not we agree with their actual arguments, the communication of those arguments appeared quite capable. If nothing else, it was a welcome ray of clarity in a storm of uncertainty.

But wait. Hold on a second. The Bergeot article didn't say a peep about any of these explanations. Especially not LaPille's bit about bans. How could an article purporting to announce such a major change omit such critical explanations? Wasn't this decision made because Standard was better for deck-builders and skilled players? Why were Wizards staffers making these significant claims on Twitter when the official article was bleached in public relations speech?

In all these questions and the countless others raised in August (and the years since August), we see communications breaking down at the intersection of Bergeot's article and LaPille's and Forsythe's Tweets. On Bergeot's side, we had an official platform which decreed a decision but included no useful explanation of why that decision was made. On bane alley brokerthe social media side, we had official Wizards agents explain the decision through an unofficial medium, but also restricted to the 140 character limit of Twitter. It was back-alley public relations at its worst. As someone who does a lot of Tweeting about Modern, it's hard to think of a more popular medium which also so heavily restricts context. Those limitations are fine when you're live-Tweeting another UW Eldrazi mirror or re-Tweeting the most flavorful, Vorthosian moment in recent Magic memory (alas, dear Isobel!). They are far from fine when you're making format-defining characterizations. Bergeot's article was made for comments like Forsythe's and LaPille's. Their inclusion would have helped Wizards both preempt this particular issue and stakeout some clear Modern and Magic policies.

Of course, players weren't blameless either. Many Twitter-minded Moderners probably read Forsythe's and LaPille's Tweets with little official follow-up. I was unable to find a single reply where a player dogged Forsythe for clarification, or where someone looped in @HeleneBergeot to ask for official confirmation. No authors published articles about the communication gap, and player outrage immediately died down, despite Forsythe's and LaPille's bombshells just sitting there, still ticking. With no "common system" in place, a lot of knowledge and context was ultimately lost around this issue, a failure on both the Wizards and player ends.

Closing without closure

Eight days later, Pro Tour Modern was back, Wizards had officially acknowledged the incident, and the community had triumphed. Unfortunately, in trying to close the chapter in this eight day window, Wizards made yet another series of communication fumbles. These mistakes only heightened the missteps up until this point, cementing their status as formative Modern issues.

It started with the same "2015 Pro Tour and Grand Prix Schedule Revealed" article that sparked the firestorm in the first place. On August 10, someone at Wizards edited the old article, removing all of the quotes I cited earlier. They replaced them with a brief footnote, the only indication of the incident's passing.

"Editor's Note: The 2015 schedule has been revised. Please see the asterisk (*) near the information that has changed since the time of this publishing."
Editor, "2015 Pro Tour and Grand Prix Schedule Revealed" (August 10, 2014 revision)

To be fair, this ninja-edit probably happened to preserve search engine optimization (making a new article would conflict with the old) and minimize confusion (leaving old Trade Secretsreferences would just contradict new information). This doesn't make the edits any less of a mistake. Although they surely reduced some level of confusion, they also guaranteed the rationale for reversing the decision was forever separated from the decision itself. You can find the 2015 schedule with a quick Google search. Bergeot's press release on the decision, however, is a much more elusive document, especially if you don't even know it exists in the first place.

In Wizards' defense, Bergeot's release did speak directly to this incident, including much of the language that should have just been edited into the "Schedule Reveal" itself. To Wizards' detriment, the release continued those same communication failings which had been boiling over since the original August 2 announcement, even making some worse. I suggest you read the entire article before progressing, but I'll be highlighting the most relevant quotes here, starting with Bergeot's direct acknowledgement of the controversy:

"Since [August 2], we have received comments and concerns from the Magic community regarding this announcement, and the omission of Modern from the 2015 Pro Tour schedule. After evaluating all feedback and after further discussion, we have decided to add Modern to the 2015 Pro Tour schedule."
Helene Bergeot, "Modern at the Pro Tour in 2015" (August 10, 2014)

At first glance, this looked like a great start. Bergeot validated player outcry, hinted at an internal process of processing all that feedback, and declared the Pro Tour's return to Modern. Mission accomplished? Not so fast. This was also the point in the article where Bergeot could have explained why Wizards initially decided to remove Modern from Pro Tour circulation. This could have included Forsythe's and LaPille's points, even if not the Tweets themselves. It could have included other factors which had gone under-appreciated. It could even have challenged the Tweet's assertions, claiming other factors had been at play. Instead, it did none of those things, reinforcing a pattern of opaqueness which marred this entire event.

Thankfully, Bergeot also promised an outlet for feedback later in the month. This could also have served as a platform for Wizards staff to discuss Forsythe's and LaPille's explanations, as well as offer other competing reasons:

"In order to address the community's questions regarding this change and other changes related to the direction of Magic, its formats, and Organized Play, we will also be hosting a CoverItLive chat session on Tuesday, August 26, where Director of Global Brand Marketing Mark Purvis, Senior Director of R&D Aaron Forsythe, and I will answer the community's questions. We will have more details—including the time for when this CoverItLive chat session will take place—later this month."
Helene Bergeot, "Modern at the Pro Tour in 2015" (August 10, 2014)

As with the first quote of the release, this appeared to be the perfect redress. Forsythe would be there to talk Modern and R&D, Mark Purvis could join to explain the Pro Tour and its marketing connection, and Bergeot could tie the entire Q&A together. Sounds great to me, even looking back on it almost two years later.

There was only one problem: by all accounts, Wizards didn't save the content of that CoverItLive chat session. In fact, it looks like no one on the entire World Wide Web saved the session. I've scoured the Internet looking for any recording of this chat, stopping short of contacting Forsythe, Purvis, or Bergeot directly and asking where it went. If you can find Clue token cultit, paste that baby in the comments and I'll mail you a signed Clue token from Shadows Over Innistrad. If you have as much luck as I did, and even if some enterprising sleuth did unearth it, we quickly see the problem: such an important chat session about such an important incident should be available for all to see and digest. Or linked back in this press release for future reference.

The final problem with this announcement was not in what went said but rather what went unspoken. What happened to Forsythe's and LaPille's objections to the Modern Pro Tour? Were those Tweeted reasons no longer on the table? Or was the Modern Pro Tour going to soldier ahead with those two conditions still lurking in the backdrop? As we learned later, Forsythe would ultimately express surprise at Modern players not understanding the link between Pro Tours and bans, going so far as to claim as recently as 2016 that Modern still wouldn't make a good Pro Tour format as if this had been clearly communicated in the past:

Of course, it hadn't been clearly communicated at all! The reaction to the Modern Pro Tour's removal made zero reference to this "random banning" link because Wizards never made that link explicit. As we've seen today, Bergeot's articles and press releases were silent about this "cost of Modern PTs." Maybe the CoverItLive session cleared it up, but by all accounts, that conversation has been lost to the dustbin of Internet history. If Bergeot had included Forsythe's and LaPille's language in either her original "Schedule Reveal" or followup update on August 10, Forsythe's 2016 Tweet would be totally on-base. Unfortunately, none of those communiques included that information in any official capacity, capping off the August Pro Tour Incident with yet another communication meltdown that would haunt Modern a year-and-a-half later.

From Breakdowns to Problems

In last week's article, we talked about how most Modern problems return to the format's lack of a clear mission and our inability to answer "What is Modern?" Communication issues are just as central to all those other "Fixing Modern" topics as the format's lack of commonly-understood purpose. When communication structures and content are as scattered and ineffectual as we saw in 2014, it's significantly (and needlessly) more difficult for Wizards to disseminate information, collect feedback, and advance our collective understanding of Modern. It's just as challenging for players to absorb Wizards' knowledge and share ideas and feedback with the company.

PandemoniumThe incident showcases all of those communication hurdles and why they posed such serious problems. August 2014 saw some platforms offering too little information and others offering too much. We had Wizards statements that weren't on the same page both figuratively, in representing different reasons, and literally, in existing across separate mediums. We had a player expectation of one reality (that the Pro Tour's return is a good thing), a Wizards expectation of another (that it is fraught with problems), and no intersection of those expectations until a crisis like the Twin ban arose. This, on top of all the more minor communication slip-ups like removing content from old articles, failure to save knowledge, lack of follow-through on seemingly major statements, no repetition of important information, and basically everything you would expect from a Dilbertian middle-management dystopia.

Has it all been this bad? Not at all! For example, both Modern Masters announcements couldn't have gone much better. We also know Wizards is more than capable of launching a consistent, engaging, and informative communication campaign around major format shifts like the new Standard rotation, which they introduced early and kept bringing up through this month. Unfortunately, the elements which made those campaigns so successful (not to mention the tight and riveting management of Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers) are largely absent in Modern.

This only serves to compound other issues as the format grows, creating both short- and long-term barriers to Modern's success. In the short-term, it prevents Wizards from accurately answering questions, and blocks players from meaningful interacting with Wizards. In the long-term, it creates an atmosphere of distrust where Wizards can simultaneously believe they are making informed decisions while also being totally out of alignment with public expectations. It is also a climate where players don't know what to expect from Wizards, and where Wizards doesn't understand why the playerbase is so ungrateful and unhappy. All of this originates in the broken communication systems highlighted in the August 2014 incident.

Two Steps to Open Up Channels

We've seen the communication chaos of August 2014. We've also seen how this is problematic both in its own terms, and for the format's long-term prospects. Now it's time to offer some solutions to Wizards and the Modern community. It's important that both parties are involved in these repairs: as discussed in our communication definition earlier, these processes are two-way systems of exchange. Both parties share a responsibility to improve communication.

  • Wizards: Launch a monthly "Modern Fireside Chat" column
    As we've talked about in the past, including last week's "Fixing Modern" column, there's no reason it should be so difficult to find morsels of information about Modern. Major Gather the PackModern policy decisions and discussions should exist in one centralized location so Wizards can easily refer back to it and players know where to find this knowledge. A regular Modern Fireside Chat column addresses all of those issues. Published monthly, this would offer Wizards a regular opportunity to discuss some element of Modern, whether organized play, the banlist, reprints, design and development, format health, strategic direction, and many other topics. More importantly, it would act as the central hub for information on all those varied topics. Wizards would be responsible for consistently sticking to the content of those Fireside Chats. Players would be responsible for understanding that content and responding to it. In that sense, the Fireside Chat would both offer an outlet for players to give feedback (for example, via something like Mark Rosewater's Blogatog, or with just a #ModernFiresideChat in Tweets), and a widely-read platform for Wizards to respond to that feedback.
  • Players: Ask questions through official channels and cite the answers
    With the Modern Fireside Chat in full swing, players would have a responsibility to ask questions on the #ModernFiresideChat wavelength, not just discontentedly brood on Reddit. Sure, Moderners can (and should!) discuss the official responses through various mediums, but they also need to bring the feedback and ideas to Wizards' doorstep. If we are too lazy, distrusting, or indifferent to take that small step, Wizards will justifiably have no obligation to respond to that feedback. By a similar token, once Wizards does weigh in on key Modern issues through the Fireside Chat, players need to stay in dialogue with those replies, citing them in posts, referring to them in everyday speech, and pointing newcomers to these official stances. This is how we build institutional knowledge and trust, and if Wizards can meet us halfway with the Fireside Chat, we can join them by using their new column.

The Modern Fireside Chat isn't a panacea for all our communication problems. It will probably even lead to new ones, especially if the column had a different author each week (depending on the topic) and sometimes give conflicting information. This shouldn't discourage us or Wizards. It's an expected growing pain in any new communication system, and the Fireside Chat even serves as its own avenue for corrective action. Players can point out the error on social media using the established Fireside Chat blog or hashtag. If an earlier Fireside Chat contradicts a new one, an editor can insert a note (without deleting content!) to clarify Wizards' position. The next Fireside Chat can even apologize for the conflict. In this way, the Fireside Chat both offers a central platform for Modern communication, while also enabling the mutual exchange of ideas that isn't currently happening.

As with last week's suggestions, these two proposal invite a number of possible objections. Also as with last week's suggestions, these objections are chiefly about expectation management, although there is also some question of logistics. Here's the primary objection to my communication plan, along with my response: feel free to voice any other worries or cautions in the comments.

  • What if "Fireside Chats" create too many expectations or promises? We don't want another Reserve List!
    One apparent advantage of not having a Fireside Chat is flexibility. If it's not in writing, it's much easier to change course on a major Modern policy decision. Once a promise Mox diamondhas been made, it can be very hard to undo: see the decade-old Reserve List nightmare for the perfect example. Won't a Modern Fireside Chat invite similar problems to Modern? I don't think so for a moment. For one, the Chat doesn't need to openly disclose every single element of Wizards' Modern policy. It can even explicitly acknowledge the need to stay nimble in some realms! Its purpose is just to give definition to the topics that already have definition, and to answer the feedback that can be answered. Second, as I argued last week too, I believe Modern could benefit from a little public accountability and expectation. Wizards clearly has the personnel to craft careful, albeit still informative, public statements. It shouldn't be too hard to answer questions and improve community understanding while also avoiding trapping the company in some new Reserve List pledge.

Given how much interest Modern content generates on other websites, I'm confident a monthly Modern Fireside Chat column would attract a sizable readership and promote substantial discussion throughout the Magic community. It would also drive new players to the format, offering a monthly platform for Wizards to educate the community about Modern, bolster format confidence, and increase player excitement. I'd certainly point every single Modern player to every single column, and I know most of our thousands of readers would do the same.

A Roadmap for Repairs

Modern mission? Done. Modern communication? Solved. In the words of a great animated character, "[We] can fix it!" Hopefully. Maybe. It's not quite as easy as Fix-It Felix, Jr. would have us believe, but it can be done and both Wizards and the Modern community have the tools to do it. I'm excited to keep proposing ideas and do what I can to improve our great format, which is why I want to give a preview of the next two "Fixing Modern" columns as a roadmap of where we go from here.

By next Wednesday, we'll know the full Shadows Over Innistrad set, and it will be time to talk about a critical piece of "Fixing Modern," one intimately connected to new set releases: testing reprints and new cards for our format. A week later on April 6, we'll be two days off the Eldrazi banlist update, which is the perfect time for "Fixing Modern" to address ban mania, banlist management, unban policy, and all things banlist-related. Buckle up and sharpen those axes because it's going to be a wild ride.

That's all for today! Thanks for reading and for sharing the "Fixing Modern" passion with me, and I look forward to discussing all of these issues in the comments.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for March 23rd, 2016

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 21st, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Mar21

Flashback Draft of the Week

This week one booster of Guildpact (GPT) gets added to the mix, along with two boosters of Ravnica: City of Guilds (RAV). The order of boosters being opened in draft will be RAV-RAV-GPT.

Adding the Izzet, Gruul and Orzhov guilds changes the dynamic around which colours combinations to look out for in this draft format. Where triple RAV was focused on the first four guilds introduced in that set, the addition of the next three guilds in GPT means the list of natural colour combinations to consider has expanded and changed at the same time.

From a top down perspective, Dimir drafters are base blue and black. Looking at the new guilds, a Dimir drafter could choose to move into either Izzet or Orzhov. In a similar way, a Selesnya drafter could seek to add black or red cards by moving into the Orzhov or Gruul guilds. Boros drafters can look to move into Orzhov or Izzet, and Golgari can move into Orzhov or Gruul.

As you can see, if players have stuck to the guild colours in the first two boosters, every drafter at the table might be looking to move into Orzhov, whereas Gruul or Izzet might be only half the drafters at the table. Orzhov also has powerful gold commons such as Pillory of the Sleepless and Blind Hunter to draw people in.

Keep this in mind when trying to figure out which direction to go in GPT. Gruul and Izzet might be open more often than Orzhov will be, just based on the boosters being opened.

There is also the dream of drafting the Temur wedge, having access to your pick of both Gruul and Izzet cards in GPT. This means avoiding choosing a guild in the first two boosters. While tricky to pull off, it's an unusual option to keep in mind that can yield powerful results.

Modern

A Magic Online Championship Series (MOCS) event was held this weekend featuring Modern Constructed. The top decks can be viewed here. Four of the top five played cards had the creature type of Eldrazi but there were some interesting builds battling with the Eldrazi decks.

This Bant deck featured the Standard combo of Collected Company and Reflector Mage. It also featured some novel cards in Meddling Mage, a card that can be excellent in a well defined metagame, as well as Phantasmal Image, this one as a four-of.

All of these cards are interesting pieces of technology to battle the Eldrazi, with the two mages combining to shut down key cards and the illusion to copy the biggest monsters on the battlefield. Should the Eldrazi continue to be a force in Modern come April, these types of cards will come under increasing demand.

Lastly, noted BGx master and Hall of Famer Willy Edel played an Abzan deck into the Top 8 of the MOCS. Alongside the usual assortment of discard spells, targeted removal and creatures, there was Oath of Nissa from Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) as a four-of.

This is an early sign that this card could be a Modern staple. Performing triple duty in card selection, powering up Tarmogoyf and making it easier to cast Liliana of the Veil is an impressive trick and exactly what you want out of the one-mana slot in your curve.

Standard

With Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) spoilers in full swing and nearly half the set spoiled, brewers are already imagining what Standard will be like with the new set and without Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF). All Standard sets except for Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) saw declines this week, as the majority of players and bots look past the current format to the new Standard coming in April.

With the rest of Spring and Summer for Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) and Magic Origins (ORI) to be played in Standard, there will be opportunities for speculators to target cards from these sets that get a boost due to Standard rotation or renewed interest in Modern, post-Eldrazi banning. Cards like Kolaghan's Command have been edging down to the previous price level and have already shown a marked tendency to cycle between highs and lows.

For those not willing to try and time the market, it's a good time to be deploying tix into baskets of BFZ and OGW cards. Both sets are still being opened in limited play and have a relatively high supply as a result. After SOI's release, supply from boosters being cracked will dry up and prices will start to drift upward as the market finds a new equilibrium.

If you are unsure of what to target, buying BFZ and OGW sets or baskets of cards from these sets is way to diversify and capture broad-based gains over time, without having to predict how an individual card will fare in Standard.

Standard Boosters

There's not much to report this week for boosters. OGW and BFZ boosters have been in a gradual decline and this is expected to continue up to the release of SOI. At that time, look for a sharp decline as the liquidity crunch generated by the new set's release takes a bite out of all prices. Speculators would be well advised to build up their stash of tix in advance of SOI release events.

Elsewhere, KTK and FRF boosters continue their terminal decline. Pending rotation leading into declining singles and set prices, leading to declining interest from drafters, is a vicious cycle that will continue for the next month. Steer well clear of these until the signs of a price bottom start showing up.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. For background theory on this week's trade, be sure to read up on how the prices of foil mythic rares evolve over time as detailed in my three part column from last year.

This week I moved heavily into OGW foil mythic rares after doing some number crunching. In the table below, I took the sum of the prices of foil mythic rares from the most recent sets, and calculated the average cost of foil mythic rares from each these sets. All prices were current as of Friday, March 18th, 2016.

Mythic Count Total Cost Average Cost
OGW 12 129 10.7
BFZ 15 220 14.6
ORI 16 299 18.7
DTK 15 262 17.5
FRF 10 149 14.9
KTK 15 379 25.2

What stood out to me right away was how low the average cost was for OGW foil mythic rares at nearly 30% below the BFZ and FRF average. With OGW currently being opened in draft and sealed leagues, it struck me that this difference will turn out to be temporary and that once SOI hits in April prices will start rising on OGW foil mythic rares.

When considering the upside on this trade, it's unlikely that the OGW foil mythic rare average price will rise to the level of KTK. That set is an outlier due to the presence of the allied fetchlands. Reaching an average in the 14 to 18 tix range seems like a reasonable expectation based off of recent history. This suggests an upside of 30% to 70% on the average foil mythic rare from OGW.

Foil mythic rares are not very liquid so moving large amounts of tix into these will be difficult. Buying one of each or a playset of each is doable though. It's important to diversify in this regard as it's not predictable which mythic rare will rise the most.

Colossal Clues in Shadows Over Innistrad Modern

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How are we more than halfway through preview season, and months into leak season, and we still have no idea who (or what) is causing all the madness on Innistrad? Hats off to Wizards for running a tight, riveting, and relatively spoiler-free march towards the official Shadows Over Innistrad set reveal this coming Friday. I can't decide if I'm on Team Emrakul or Team Marit Lage, but I do know I'm excited for a number of Shadows cards in Modern. That's especially true of some Clue generators, which are the perfect tools for my Shape Anew brews. Team Blightsteel, anyone?

Thraben Inspector art

We just published a new writing announcement and all the associated details, so today's article is going to be a bit shorter than usual. I know I've said that in the past, before regaling you with 3,000 word dissections of metagame numbers, but I really mean it today! We'll just be looking at a pair of the new investigate and Shadows staples to see how they synergize with Shape Anew and Blightsteel Colossus. Or Platinum Emperion, if roadblocking aggro is your thing instead.

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Thraben InspectorFirst up is the intrepid [tippy title="Thraben Inspector" width="330" height="330"]Thraben Inspector[/tippy], a daring sleuth who's just as confused by the tentacled blight as most of the Magic community. Hopefully we'll get some answers to that later this week, but for now, Shape Anew decks are definitely interested in this early-game answer. Played in the first few turns, the detective walls off a Wild Nacatl, Goblin Guide, Glistener Elf, or Tarmogoyf as you build towards your critical turn four. If she dies in combat, you still get the Clue. If she gets Bolted, you still get the Clue. If she's still alive into the mid-game, you get another Restoration Angel target and now get two Clues instead. She's even a decent late-game topdeck, cycling out her Clue for an additional card, a rarity for one-drops that typically lose a lot of power once the early game concludes.

To be sure, Inspector is by no means a "powerful" card in a vacuum. Her power is Clue token cultlargely contextual. Clue tokens feel like they were made for Shape Anew targeting: I'm convinced someone on R&D has a secret love affair with the card like I do. They are immune to every form of commonly played removal in Modern outside of Abrupt Decay and Maelstrom Pulse. Even Lightning Bolt, the historic menace of Shape Anew decks, can't stop them! As an added upside, if the Clue dies, you are still profiting because a) you earned the Clue off another effect and the opponent had to expend a card to deal with your secondary product, and/or b) you can even sacrifice a Clue in response to draw a new card. Casting Shape Anew on turn six with both Dispel and Clue-activation mana up will make you feel invincible. I know because I've tested it.

In that context, Inspector becomes much better than her one-drop, 1/2 stats suggest. She deploys on-curve into your Shape Anew, either on turn one if you don't have the Serum Visions, turn two with Bolt and/or Path to Exile backup, or turn three with Mana Leak, Remand, or removal in reserve. This isn't quite Splinter Twin and Deceiver Exarch, but it's definitely giving me flashbacks.

Expose EvilOur last Shape Anew partner for today is [tippy title="Expose Evil" width="330" height="330"]Expose Evil[/tippy], one of the leaked Shadows cards from earlier in the season. Assuming the instant is as real as the rest of the leak, this card adds a critical interactive element to Shape Anew decks while also deploying a Clue token en route to the turn four Blightsteel Colossus. Again, we're not quite at Deceiver Exarch levels (notably, Expose can't tap down lands, doesn't block creatures that get through, and can't deal damage), but the parallels are close enough to get even the pessimists taking a good look at Team Blightsteel. As an added ray of hope, like the one paralyzing those hapless vampires in the art, Expose even has a few upsides Exarch and Pestermite couldn't match.

[tippy title="Expose Evil" width="330" height="330"]Expose Evil[/tippy] is at its best in aggressive matchups on turns 2-3. Against Burn, you're locking down both a swinging Guide and Monastery Swiftspear for a turn and building towards your Clue reshaping. Against Affinity, you can tap down the Cranial Plating-bearer (watch out for instant-speed re-equipping!), stall a Signal Pest charge, or stymie a hefty Master of Etherium. In the Infect matchup, you can lockdown both an Elf or Blighted Agent on top of a mana dork in the upkeep. Be careful for Vines of Vastwood here, but also rest easy knowing Spellskite can't redirect the multi-targeting Expose. The same wasn't true of Exarch or Pestermite, both of which also couldn't tap down multiple targets.

Shape AnewOn top of its obvious stalling applications, [tippy title="Expose Evil" width="330" height="330"]Expose Evil[/tippy] also helps Shaped Blightsteels swing for lethal. The instant can tap down blockers to screw with an opponent's combat math and survival odds, although remember the Colossus doesn't have haste (without Thopter Engineer's help, at least), so you can't go turn three Expose into turn four Shape Anew for game. Finally, [tippy title="Expose Evil" width="330" height="330"]Expose Evil[/tippy] doesn't actually require targets ("up to"), so you can cast it on an empty board to get a Clue for later, or just cast it and pop the token to cycle for more business.

We have a little less than half of the set left, and any number of investigate cards could become Blightsteel Colossus's new best friends. Wizards may have dropped the ball on countermagic (was Cancel plus Clue really that broken?), but I'm still optimistic for the Shadows brewing possibilities.

That's all for today, coming in as-promised at an unprecedented sub-1,000 words. Guess I'll have to make up the deficit in tomorrow's "Fixing Modern" column! See you all in the comments for some Shadows speculation, Shape Anew discussions, and any and all questions you have on the new set and all things Modern.

Announcing Volunteer Contributors!

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Happy Tuesday, Modern Nexus community!

Some of you may have noticed a new page that has appeared at the top of our Modern Nexus menu. I've gotten plenty of emails, comments, and messages from users about how they can contribute to Modern Nexus without being a Staff Writer. "Can I submit a tournament report?" "Would you host my deck primer?" "Want this theory piece I've been mulling over for months?" Today, we are unveiling the "Volunteer Contributors" program to answer these questions and give the Nexus readership and Modern community a new way to help out the team and the website.

modern_nexus_lg

Volunteer Contributors are Moderners who want to contribute their work to the website and the general Modern knowledge pool. The online Modern community is brimming with detailed tournament summaries, high-quality deck guides, riveting theoretical discussions, and intricate card analyses, and many of these authors have asked me if there's a way they can get their work featured on the Nexus. After talking with some of these prospective contributors and looking at some other content sites, I'm rolling out this Volunteer Contributors option as a way of expanding our content offerings and providing Modern contributors an outlet for their work.

You can find many details about the new program on our "Contribute Articles" page, but I wanted to use today's announcement to highlight a few pieces of the program and preemptively address some questions.

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What kind of material does Modern Nexus want?

If it's related to Modern, we probably want it. This includes, but is not limited to, tournament reports, deck primers, sideboard and matchup guides, theory pieces, op-ed articles, banlist analyses, card evaluations, and much more. As long as it's focused around Modern, meets the Modern Nexus standards of research, evidence, and argumentation, and is relatively well-written, we'd love to see if it's a good fit for the site.

Are Volunteer Contributors paid?

At this time, only Staff Writers and the Content Editor are paid for their work on Modern Nexus. Given the size of the website and our very modest budget, there is simply no money to pay for Volunteer Contributors right now. I gave this disclaimer to some of the people who reached out to me about this possible opportunity, and many of them were fine with it. For them, it was still a way for them to contribute to a worthwhile cause (I'm honored you think this site is worthwhile!) and put their labor into a lasting project that will live beyond the lifespan of a Reddit thread.

Why submit content if it isn't compensated?

As a writer, I totally empathize with this question. Writers deserve compensation. That's why every member of our staff is currently paid for their work on the site, and why writers should always ask for money when submitting pieces. So, why submit to the Volunteer Contributors program if it's unpaid? For those interested in writing Magic content, it's a great way to get your foot in our door when we do add new Staff Writers in the future. As we work in 2016 to improve our monetization methods, this will naturally open up more revenue for additional staff. Regular Volunteer Contributors will be first in line to apply for paid Staff Writer positions for Modern Nexus. Additionally, as we add more features to the site and the Modern Nexus community, existing Volunteer Contributors will be first in line to get some exclusive rewards, even if those aren't directly monetary.

For those just interested in Magic and Modern, many of you have asked how to donate to the Nexus to help grow our site. We'll be thinking of some more formal donation structures later, but for now, your content donation is itself something that helps us expand. More content will help us get more viewers and reach a broader segment of the Magic world, so even if you have no interest in money yourself, you can think of your submitted piece as a contribution to Modern Nexus's continued evolution.

Finally, I know many of our readers and the Modern community at large are already writing publication-appropriate pieces on Reddit, on forums, on blogs, and through other venues. For those who are already doing this, the Volunteer Contributors program is a way to do so in a more formal and lasting setting, reaching a larger audience and being a part of an exciting community-driven website I've loved being a part of since last March. I know this sounds a lot like the canned, "write for exposure" response, but it's not intended that way and truly does come from a good place. I wrote primers on forums and articles on sites like the Overextended project without a dime of pay, and I would have loved a more regular opportunity to write for a site with the possibility of transitioning to paid status.

For more information about the program, article guidelines, submission information, and more, check out our "Contribute Articles" page for details. You can also ask any questions in the comments, or email the Editor in Chief if you want to chat in a more one-on-one setting. I'm excited to hear from our community about this new program, and even more excited to read some of the pieces from contributors. See you all in the comments and get excited for more Shadows Over Innistrad previews coming as the week progresses! Also, stay tuned for another article publishing right after this announcement goes live.

-Sheridan
Editor in Chief

Insider: Standard Oldies About to Be Goodies

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Did you guys know that Magic is releasing a new set called Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) and that Standard is about to undergo a tremendous transformation? Of course you did!

I can't really do much with the spoiler cards because, well, pretty much just the mythics are up and they are always way on the high side this early. $25+ on every planeswalker and playable-looking mythic creature? I expect it, but I'm certainly not interested in paying on any of these right now.

I'm actually much more interested, for investing purposes, in trying to figure out a few hot buys from the older sets before people figure out what new Standard will look like. My philosophy has always been to buy when things are low and sell when high (innovative, I know). With that being said, I typically don't get excited about buying up $10+ Standard cards hoping for a spike. It happens sometimes, but those kinds of gambits are much riskier and tend to pay off a lower percentage.

I like to find cards that nobody wants right now, but that everybody is going to want in three weeks! Those are the cards that really peak up and have players clamoring to trade for them as new Standard approaches.

Magic Origins

Origins is a great set full of awesome cards. Yes, yes, Jace, Vryn's Prodigy too! However, Jace is already crazy expensive. I actually think $100 may be the cap on Jace. A lot of this price hype has to do with anticipation that he will be the best card in new Standard because of the madness mechanic. The other blue cards don't look too impressive. The card is great but whether or not it is the best? We'll have to wait and see.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archangel of Tithes

White has gotten a lot of nice new tools in SOI, Archangel Avacyn and Declaration in Stone to name a few. It stands to reason that white-based decks could be very good post-rotation. Archangel of Tithes is a crazy powerful Magic card.

If there is a heavy white-based aggro or midrange creature deck it is likely that Tithes might finally have a chance to shine. The card has little demand for it right now and a fairly low price tag for a mythic rare. It's a card I'm interested in taking a chance on.

The card is also a big, aggressively costed flier that makes combat a nightmare for your opponent. Having to pay mana to attack and block is not pleasant!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Firecraft

Fiery Temper is back in Standard along with a few really nice-looking aggressive red cards. It may be time for Red Deck Wins to make a comeback. I assume that if Red is a thing that Firecraft is going to be a "hot" piece of the puzzle. I'm looking for extra copies to store away for a rainy spring day when lots of people figure out they now need the card!

Dragons of Tarkir

Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) has a ton of fantastic cards and is going to be one of the defining sets in Standard. While every set will play a role in shaping the format, DTK has a greater share of powerful cards---Deathmist Raptor, Den Protector and the Dragonlords just for starters.

There are also a few oddball cards that may finally have a chance to find their moment of glory!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shaman of Forgotten Ways

Shaman is a powerful spell for sure. Getting to ramp straight from three to six is a big deal. I could actually see this card being quite good in the G/R Eldrazi Ramp deck as another powerful accelerant. It might also be a solid mana fixer spell in a three-color deck that wants to play a wide range of creatures and colors.

With the fetches gone it is going to be much harder to do anything with three colors and so this kind of effect could be at a premium. It's a little bit risky, but the price is so low that it would be hard to really lose out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pitiless Horde

Five power for three mana? I mean, value?

With sweet new zombies and black aggro cards like Relentless Dead and the new Olivia showing up in SOI, it isn't unreasonable to think that a hard hitter like this could see some play. The drawback is that there are already a couple of great three-drops for these aggressive black decks (Drana and Olivia), however the out-of-nowhere dash ability is interesting and quite potent.

I've had quite a few people suggest Horde as one of the better sideboard plans against Ramp (and that's with all of the Khans cards still around). It's basically just a bulk rare that could actually find a solid home in new Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

Thunderbreak is just an all around very powerful card. One of the more powerful payoffs in Standard will be the "dragon's matter" theme. And speaking of dragons...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Draconic Roar

Roar is a potent removal spell that plays nicely with Regent. As far as removal spells go, Searing Blaze is a good one. I also don't think it is out of the question to play Regent alongside Olivia. Imagine how sick it would be to follow an Olivia with a hasty, beefy Thunderbreak! Pretty big game there.

Oath of the Gatewatch

Set is new and cards are plentiful. Not a whole lot to be seen here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Needle Spires

The card is fantastic and not worthy of bulk rare status. I imagine that with fixing being so much worse without the fetches that these creature lands are going to be very important cards in Standard moving forward.

Battle for Zendikar

Battle may have been one of the lamest big sets ever. Expeditions were cool but the actual new cards were kind of boring. However there are sure to be some sleeper picks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruinous Path

Lots of good planeswakers in the new Standard format. With the tri-color staple creatures all rotating (Siege Rhino, Mantis Rider, Anafenza, etc.) it stands to reason that planeswalkers might really take over in the new format. Well, either that or Eldrazi!

Ruinous Path deals with all walkers and Eldrazis, so I imagine it will see some pretty significant play in the coming weeks. The card is basically dirt cheap, so it can't really go down in value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shambling Vent

Shambling Vent may well be one of the most important cards in the new Standard format. Not only is it by far the best creature land, but mana fixing in general is pretty sparse with fetches rotating. A great mana fixer and threat all in one is going to be a pretty significant card.

It also helps that Shambling Vent is in a good color combination. Both black and white look to have gotten a bunch of great new tools in SOI. Not to mention, black-white also got an exciting new six-drop Sorin planeswalker.

~

Well, those are my picks for the week. I'm starting to get really excited for new Standard and these are all cards that I'm seriously looking to play moving forward. Remember, we are trying to figure out which cards that didn't have a place before will be able to find a new home in new Standard.

Insider: Standard Specs Before Shadows Over Innistrad

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The spoiling of Ravenous Bloodseeker and Incorrigible Youths may have come quietly, but it harkens the return of a competitive madness deck to Standard. A U/G Madness deck with analogues to the new cards, Aquamoeba and Arrogant Wurm, once defined Standard, and it was even a highly successful Legacy deck. These cards are for real, and they are going to play a part in Standard.

RavenousBloodseeker IncorrigibleYouths OliviaMobilizedForWar

Heir of Falkenrath is a new take on the two-mana madness accelerator, and it seems like a great alternative to Wild Mongrel. It’s a one-shot use of madness, so it’s not a reliable engine through a game, but the 3/2 flying threat it creates is very powerful and efficient for the low cost, and it allows this deck to generate extremely aggressive openings.

Falkenrath Gorger adds a new tribal element to the madness deck, ensuring it will be centered around vampires. It means that any vampire is a potential consideration for the Vampire Madness deck. The playability of all other vampires in Standard has just sharply risen, and the the market will act accordingly.

Olivia, Mobilized for War further cements the tribe’s position as a discard-oriented aggressive deck, but also into black and red. It also makes non-creature madness cards more reliable, so it helps the deck enable Fiery Temper and any others that will be printed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drana, Liberator of Malakir

The marquee vampire of Battle for Zendikar, Drana, Liberator of Malakir, has seen upward movement online, and it’s only gotten better. It’s ability to grow a team is very potent in a rush aggro deck, but because it grows itself it’s also capable of winning a game on its own. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vampire Madness decks include four copies, and if it becomes a tier-one deck the price is going to get high.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is one of the most powerful creatures in Standard after rotation, and it also happens to be a vampire---great news for the vampire madness deck. The activated ability will have plenty of fodder in a dedicated vampire deck and won’t have to rely on generating zombies, so the card will be at its best in Vampire Madness.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoneforge Masterwork

I’ve had my eyes on Stoneforge Masterwork ever since my Four-Color Rally deck was soundly defeated by a Stoneforge Masterwork-wielding Goblin Piledriver. It’s of course at its best in a deck with lots of tokens, which is why I think this card has much potential in a Eldrazi aggro deck with lots of Eldrazi scion tokens, but it could also find a home in a tribal vampire madness deck.

All eyes should be on the remaining Shadows over Innistrad spoilers for any vampires or madness cards that could make the cut into the Vampire Madness deck. I expect we’ll see at least a few more cards with potential in the deck, perhaps more, but I’ve sketched a sample decklist with the cards we already have available:

B/R Vampire Madness

Spells

4 Falkenrath Gorger
4 Ravenous Bloodseeker
4 Heir of Falkenrath
4 Drana, Liberator of Malakir
4 Olivia, Mobilized for War
4 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Elusive Tormentor
1 Markov Dreadknight
1 Stoneforge Masterwork
4 Incorrigible Youths
4 Fiery Temper

Lands

4 Evolving Wilds
4 Smoldering Marsh
4 Cinder Barrens
6 Mountain
6 Swamp

The curve of this deck is higher than I’d like, so ideally some of the most expensive cards would be replaced by more aggressive vampires that are printed. The deck may also want to trim down on some of the legendary creatures.

Building Around Arlinn Kord

arlinnkord arlinnembracedbythemoon

Arlinn Kord has everyone excited for the return of a flip-card planeswalker. It's aggressively costed with abilities begging to be built around, so it’s the sort of card red decks might want to play four of.

Its printing has made me re-examine all of the other red and green cards in the format, and there are a few that stand out as working well with Arlinn Kord. If these cards become staples alongside the planeswalker, then they are sure to see an increase in demand and price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Chandra

Oath of Chandra is a reasonable removal spell in a world without Siege Rhino, meaning Roast is less important. It’s not far off from Draconic Roar, but over a long game could deal a lot more than three damage in a deck with lots of planeswalkers, like Arlinn Kord and Chandra, Flamecaller.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh

Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh also has nice synergy with Arlinn Kord. Giving it +2/+2 and vigilance allows it to attack and tap to deal a free damage, but more importantly it attacks as a 4/4, meaning it will immediately transform into a planeswalker if it connects with the opponent. Red decks will be forced to change in the future, and losing Hordeling Outburst opens up space for cards like this.

Battle Lands

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunken Hollow
There was an error retrieving a chart for Cinder Glade

The Battle for Zendikar dual lands are going to become a much bigger part of manabases in Standard. Previously manabases were centered around playsets of fetchlands and one- or two-of dual lands, but four-of duals are going to start being commonplace.

Demand for these lands is going to increase, but supply is going to dwindle as players cease to draft Battle for Zendikar and begin to draft Shadows over Innistrad and future sets. I like all of these lands as a stable growth spec over the coming year. If you are playing Standard, it’s time to fill out your playsets of these lands.

Post-Rotation Eldrazi

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought-Knot Seer

As this Standard season comes to a close before the imminent rotation at the release of Shadows over Innistrad, Eldrazi Aggro decks have become a major player in the metagame. Eldrazi decks are strong contenders going into rotation, and they're widely considered to be a likely future top-tier archetype.

It’s not clear how these decks will look, but be sure Eldrazi staples like Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher will be a part. Eldrazi Mimic and Endless One are two other highly-played Eldrazi.

Matter Reshaper and colored Eldrazi like Drowner of Hope and Eldrazi Obligator are also considerations. Corrupted Crossroads might be an excellent spec because of its applications in any Eldrazi deck, and the dearth of quality mana-fixing in the format.

What cards are you targeting in anticipation of Shadows over Innistrad?

- Adam

Insider: Shedding Light on Shadows Over Innistrad Spoilers

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Editor's note: Some key madness enablers were left out near the end of this article. This was an editorial oversight and has been fixed.

Welcome back, readers. Today we'll focus on the spoilers from Shadows over Innistrad (SOI).

Color Balance

Something weird is going on with the color distribution among the spoilers. Here's what we know so far:

  • The set has 297 cards in it.
  • We've never had a set this large in the post-mythic era.
  • Typical large set breakdowns are 15 mythic rares, 53 rares, 80 uncommons, 101 commons.
  • We have seen 119 cards spoiled as of writing, including 14 mythics. Of the mythics, there are more black cards represented than any other color, and no non-gold green cards.

The color distribution in the original Innistrad set skewed slightly towards black. (For the purposes of this discussion, I'll count gold cards as half of each of their colors.) This makes some sense given the set's Gothic horror theme, and overall it was still relatively even.

But looking at the spoilers for SOI, we see zero pure green mythics. While WoTC doesn't always have the same number of each colored mythic in each set, the fact that we have three blue and three black, but no green, seems heavily imbalanced. The natural conclusion is that there are more than 15 mythics in the set.

With black already representing so many mythics in the color breakdown, it seems it won't get any more. This means no Liliana of the Veil reprint.

If that's the case then she'll likely continue her trend upward due to strong Modern demand. This will only get worse if/when one of the Eldrazi lands, Eldrazi Temple or Eye of Ugin, gets banned and B/x Midrange decks take over the space left empty by Twin and Bloom.

Manabases in New Standard

So far we've seen seven rare lands in Shadows over Innistrad, five of which fix color. We also got five uncommon mana fixers for enemy-color combinations (completing the cycle began in Oath of the Gatewatch.)

The new rare land cycle comes into play untapped if you reveal an appropriate land type from your hand. They look to be a crucial part of Standard mana bases, and happen to pair well with battle lands.

porttown

Consider how the battle lands will interact with these new allied duals. The battle lands actually greatly help the new SOI duals in the early game and actually have more value staying in your hand early on (to enable the maximum number of SOI duals to enter untapped). Luckily, as I mentioned earlier the BFZ lands get better later in the game anyways, so they may end up being the last land one plays from their hand.

With the new spoiled lands, here's what the mana fixing options look like in Standard:

  • Allied Pairs: Battle lands, Shadows "reveal lands," generic tapped lands
  • Enemy Pairs: Creature lands, pain lands, generic tapped lands

Of these, the pain lands are the only ones guaranteed to come in untapped. The lands spoiled yesterday are also reasonably reliable, though. The best comparison is to the Scars of Mirrodin fastlands, which also tended to come into play tapped later in the game. So you may be able to cobble together a three-color deck, but the days of perfect greedy mana are definitely over.

What this means is gold mythics from the new set may have to be scrutinized more heavily. With two cycles of strong duals in allied combinations, it seems shards (Naya, Esper, etc.) will be easier to manage than wedges (Abzan, Jeskai, etc.). Gold cards that fit into just one shard may have a harder time finding a home.

Of the three planeswalkers spoiled so far, Sorin and Nahiri will only fit into one shard, whereas Arlinn Kord can go in two (Jund or Naya). That gives her more potential archetypes to get tried out in.

soringrimnemesis nahiritheharbinger arlinnkord

The Return of Madness

With the return of madness, the ability to discard at instant speed will become very valuable. This makes Jace, Vryn's Prodigy even better. The first time madness debuted, 7th Edition was legal and players got to abuse Merfolk Looter. Jace is a clear upgrade to say the least.

In fact, madness was one of the defining decks of the Odyssey block format with the U/G Madness archetype.

Odyssey-Era All-Stars

The power of the madness mechanic came from the reduced mana cost. Discarding cards to activate an ability was previously a negative, and thus WoTC could push the power level of these spells. Madness turned the cost into a potential benefit.

So far we've only seen six cards with madness specifically (and one which gives other cards madness), so it'll be interesting to see how far they're willing to push it. One of the cards, Incorrigible Youths, does a great Arrogant Wurm impression.

incorrigibleyouths

The other half of the madness equation is tied to how good the discard enablers are. The best ones have abilities that can be done at instant speed at no additional cost (tapping, mana requirements, etc). Without Wild Mongrel, the original U/G Madness deck would have been nowhere near as powerful.

As of right now, a search for "discard a card" within post-rotation Standard shows only a handful of instant-speed discard outlets. Only three of them are mana-free and of those only Kozilek, the Great Distortion can be used multiple times in a turn... Even that requires your opponent to cast spells with the same converted mana cost as what you want to discard.

Possible Madness Enablers

SOI does of course offer the new vampire madness enablers in Olivia, Heir of Falkenrath and Ravenous Bloodseeker, as well as Sinister Concoction. These newcomers look to be the main way we'll be madnessing out spells post-rotation.

HeirOfFalkenrath RavenousBloodseeker SinisterConcoction

Conclusion

Shadows over Innistrad is looking to be a very flavorful set with some pretty powerful cards. Decks will likely focus more on one to two colors and we will likely see a lot fewer 3+ color decks. Especially if any form of B/R Vampire Aggro deck appears (that's the one I keep hearing people claim will be the #1 deck out of the gates). Having to play a lot of tapped lands will cause you to lose games before you really do much of anything.

If the B/R Vampire Aggro deck does end up formalizing, then Smoldering Marsh is most likely to be the first BFZ land to stand out in price.

Searching for Answers in the Shadows

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Good news, everyone! Shadows Over Innistrad spoiler season is in full swing. This means that you can get excited, and start speculating on cards! And, invariably, get it wrong! Except of course for That Guy. You know, That Guy. The one who always gets it right and makes out like a bandit. Why do we let That Guy hang around?

Welcome to the Fold art

I am not That Guy and (un)fortunately that isn't what today's article will be about. Nor will it be about any of the obviously good cards like [tippy title="Declaration in Stone" width="330" height="330"]1_declaration[/tippy] or [tippy title="To the Slaughter" width="330" height="330"]to the slaughter[/tippy]. Anyone can tell you about those. I'm interested in cards with less obvious potential. I'm interested in the Boros Reckoners and Pack Rats, those cards with great potential whose home is not immediately obvious, but could be extremely powerful.

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What Hides in the Shadows?

As of my writing this, there are still 157 cards to go, but the set is starting to take shape and it looks like Modern will be getting a number of new playables. No format-defining or even archetype-(re)defining cards (yet), but we've seen a number of solid role-playing removal spells and a few interesting build-around-mes like [tippy title="Arlinn Kord" width="330" height="330"]1_arlinn[/tippy].

But you know about those cards. Anyone with a brain and the ability to read the spoiler can find those cards and can at least make a guess as to their playability and where they belong (Arlinn is pretty okay in Zoo, surprisingly). I want a challenge. What I'm going to do today is take on a few cards that are interesting puzzles. Will any of these cards find a home and be worthwhile? No idea, but the potential is definitely there, and even if I can't find it, maybe one of you will have the inspiration I lack. In alphabetical order:

[tippy title="Bygone Bishop" width="330" height="330"]Bygone Bishop temp[/tippy]

Bygone Bishop tempWhite rarely gets card advantage, and when it does, it's almost always attached to small creatures. This also means it is almost never good (anyone else remember Mentor of the Meek?). Puresteel Paladin has seen play in Cheerios, but... there's no getting around it is there? Sorry Sheridan, the deck just isn't good (Sheridan's note: Leave my Purseteels alone!). The problem is, while having continuous card advantage tied to creatures is good, see also Dark Confidant, jumping through hoops to get that card advantage is not.

[tippy title="Bygone Bishop" width="330" height="330"]Bygone Bishop temp[/tippy] is definitely a spiritual successor to those... engines? ...but with a twist that you don't immediately get your card back. Which is generally considered bad, and the fact that you don't have to pay mana for it right away like Mentor of the Meek doesn't really make up for that. This means that, as a card advantage engine, Bishop just doesn't measure up and will probably never see play. If you're looking for a way to make your creatures cantrip, then Beck // Call is always going to be better, and it still isn't good. Unless you're LSV. Which you're not. Stop lying to yourself.

dreadship reefExcept that's not really what's going on here. Bishop doesn't turn creature spells into cantrips. He makes artifact tokens that might cantrip later. Maybe that is good? I don't know if investigate is playable, but it might be. I think the key thing is that the Clue isn't really a cantrip: it's an investment and investment cards are hard to evaluate in Magic. Think of it like Dreadship Reef: most decks do not want that kind of effect and will suffer if you try to cram them in but those that do want them really want them. In Time Spiral Standard, Reef and its cohorts were useless in aggressive and most midrange decks but were arguably the best lands in Mystical Teachings mirrors.

Where does that leave Bishop? I see it as an investment engine, which means I don't think it has a fair use.collected company For it to work in a fair deck, it needs to be in a deck that plays lots of cheap creatures that wants to play a 2/3 flier for three and then pay mana to draw cards later. The first part of that sentence suggests Zoo style decks, which don't want a 2/3 for three, and if Zoo gets into a situation where it has mana and time to cash in its Clues then it's almost certainly not winning the game. I'm not sure what deck wants the other two parts. It's possible a Brian Kibler style Big Zoo deck that wants to play a longer game might use it as a sideboard card for grindy matchups, but Collected Company is probably just better.

krark-Clan IronworksAs for unfair applications I'm not sure the deck for it exists, but it could. The strategy that breaks this card wants a lot of artifacts in play and plays a lot of cheap to free creatures, which to me suggests some kind of Eggs/Cheeri0s hybrid, using Clues to fuel Krark-Clan Ironworks and Memnite and Ornithopter to trigger Bishop. A Myr Retriever loop possibly? I have no earthly idea what that looks like. It also sounds like a lot of work for something that might be better than Cheer0s but is probably not better than Eggs. I'm always open to being wrong, however.

Thinking about it, Bishop has quite a bit of potential in "fair" decks, specifically Affinity. Clues fuel all of Affinity's payoff cards (Arcbound Ravager, Cranial Plating, and Master of Etherium), everything in the deck costs three or less, and the Clues stick around after maindeck sweepers. Additionally, thanks to Springleaf Drum and Mox Opal you can play Bishop on turn one, which isn't the most explosive play but it can provide a lot of value if you're dumping your hand and then playing Plating. Yes, Clues are vulnerable to all the Affinity hate, but Bishop isn't which might randomly be relevant. This is still probably far too cute for the robots, but the potential value is enough to definitely be worth investigating.

[tippy title="Engulf the Shore" width="330" height="330"]Engulf the Shore temp[/tippy]

Engulf the Shore tempWow. This is a card. Global bounce effects have been powerful before, but only when you could break the symmetry like Psychatog did with Upheaval. Engluf isn't necessarily symmetrical, however, since proper sequencing can ensure your creatures survive the wave (unless you want to rebuy a Snapcaster Mage or something). At sorcery speed, this would be unplayable, much like Whelming Wave, but instant speed makes it worth considering. Evacuation never sees play, but this has a build-around-me aspect that makes it more useful. I know Hibernation is an absolute beast of a sideboard card for Merfolk, and for one mana more this hits creatures of all colors. It's inclusive!

Except, I know Merfolk doesn't want the card, and I'm not sure what deck actually does. Merfolk uses Hibernation against Elves and sometimes Zoo to clear out boards of three or more toughness creatures, and if you can Engulf their board you will Engulf your own as well (if that isn't true you probably don't actually need to Engulf). I know I said I'd play Wash Out, but that was because of non-blue non-creature permanents and Engulf doesn't solve that problem.

TasigurThis leaves me wondering what deck actually wants Engulf. It has to be a deck with a lot of Islands that wants to clean up an entire board of creatures, probably during the end step (because otherwise they'd just play Aetherize), and then attack unimpeded with a high-toughness creature. The only creatures that qualify and see play in blue are the delve creatures which means Engulf is probably a Grixis card. However, I don't think most Grixis decks will want it since the midrange and control versions usually just run Damnation. For Engulf to be better, you need to have out Tasigur or Gurmag Angler facing a creature deck and you're clearing the way to attack for the win. This suggests a tempo plan more in line with Chapin's original vision for the deck, which doesn't really see any play. Is this better than the current control versions? I'm not Trevor but I don't think so. Might this be incentive for a more tempo oriented version to reemerge? Perhaps. I wouldn't write it off.

[tippy title="Vessel of Volatility" width="330" height="330"]Vessel of Volatility temp[/tippy]

Vessel of Volatility tempAnytime a ritual effect gets printed it is always worth considering. Storm is always on the cusp of utter degeneracy and anytime something is printed that might push it over you need to take notice. I like what I see here, but I might have nostalgia in my eyes. The first deck I ever played in Extended was a borrowed Storm deck that included Cloud of Faeries, Sapphire Medallion, and Mind's Desire and this card reminds me of those days. Vessel is a two drop that will provide extra mana on another turn, much like Medallion, and isn't as vulnerable as Medallion's actual replacement, Goblin Electromancer. It's also not so bad a draw during the kill turn since at worst it's a mana-neutral card, much like Cloud was. If you play it beforehand then it provides two extra mana, just like the banned Seething Song. All of these things are decent arguments in favor of the Vessel.

The problem [tippy title="Vessel of Volatility" width="330" height="330"]Vessel of Volatility temp[/tippy] has actually comes from how Modern Storm is built. If Goblin ElectromancerStorm is going to be investing two mana for a later payoff it really wants it to be Pyromancer Ascension  or the Electromancer. Unlike the Mind's Desire deck from my youth, Storm needs a much higher storm count to go off and relies heavily on Past in Flames during that critical turn. Vessel doesn't interact with Past and, if played as a mana generator, isn't mana positive on the combo turn. This probably removes it from all consideration in your typical Storm deck. If Storm had a better card advantage or mana engine then this would be a consideration, but as-is, I think Storm has to pass.

The deck that wants Vessel is trying to set up a single big turn and doesn't require a very high Storm count. This really limits the possibilities. You could play it in Stompy, since it is unlikely to get countered and sets up dropping a big threat later, but this seems to slow to me (Jordan might have a different opinion).dragonstorm The other, I think far more plausible, home is Dragonstorm. That deck needs a ton of mana to go off but only needs a storm count of four to win (four Bogardan Hellkites are lethal). That deck hasn't been close to playable in Modern due to competition from normal Storm and the Seething Song banning, but maybe now that isn't the case. The lower storm count means that you can afford to play defensive cards like Lightning Bolt and Remand, which in turn means that you can spend some turns really setting up with Vessel and Lotus Bloom. What I'm envisioning is a deck that plans to suspend Bloom, play a Vessel or two, stay alive until Bloom resolves and then cantrip into a low storm win. Is this better than Storm? I don't know, but it is likely more resilient and might even be a reasonable midrange deck if you actually can dedicate more slots to for a Snapcaster package. The format will be completely new once Vessel becomes legal so it might be worth it to take advantage of the volatility and try out Dragonstorm. Besides, who doesn't love winning with Dragons?

[tippy title="Welcome to the Fold" width="330" height="330"]Welcome to the Fold temp[/tippy]

It's the latest Control Magic! Is it the greatest? Maybe. Probably not. The fact that it's a sorcery instead of an enchantment is good, meaning it can't be undone by Qasali Pridemage or Maelstrom Pulse. When played with madness, it is effectively a free card and since it checks toughness not mana-cost, there is potential for some huge thefts here. You can steal Thragtusk for X=3 and Kiki-Jiki at X=2, and at instant-speed no less! The potential for massive blowouts is very real here.

Welcome to the Fold tempThe question with [tippy title="Welcome to the Fold" width="330" height="330"]Welcome to the Fold temp[/tippy], and with all the madness cards, aren't the cards themselves but the enablers. That's where Welcome's greatest challenge will lie. UG Madness was powerful because of Wild Mongrel and Aquamoeba, not Basking Rootwalla. The simple fact is that, at time of writing, we don't have anything like Mongrel, with the best new card being a fixed version of Aquamoeba, and that card is certainly not Modern playable.

Looking through Gatherer really doesn't give me a lot of options either. The cards that do allow free discarding are limited to specific card types (usually lands or artifacts) or are unplayably bad.Zombie Infestation Zombie Infestation is probably the best and that card is pretty questionable. Most of the other options require mana for each discard and are one shot deals, which doesn't work well with madness and doesn't enable playing them at instant speed. Yes, Liliana of the Veil and Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded are repeatable and free but I don't think that the deck that wants Welcome also wants Liliana. As for Tibalt, Modern's worst planeswalker will never be a reliable madness outlet.

Realistically, the best ways to enable madness are looters, of which there is no shortage in Modern. The most played, and certainly best, is Jace, Vryn's Prodigy.Jace Prodigy The problem there is that the looters are all very vulnerable and can only be used once a turn, again limiting their usefulness for madness. Jace has an additional problem that, by the time you'd want to madness Welcome, he's probably already been flipped or is dead. I don't think you sit on Jace just to enable Welcome or any madness card. It's still early, but I think that Wizards is too scared of Wild Mongrel to really unleash madness again, so we may have to accept that it won't be very useful.

If we instead look at it as a sorcery with upside the picture gets murky. Two toughness creatures are pretty rare in Modern and I can't think of any that I want to steal at sorcery speed for four mana. Threads of Disloyalty is much more versatile and it sees no play, though that's mostly because of Abrupt Decay. It may be possible to make it work. I'm just not yet sure the effect is worth the lengths you have to go for it. There are just better cards out there for the cost, so unless there's a good enabler out there I've missed, we have to hope Shadows gives us the missing outlet.

Follow the Shadows, Solve the Riddle

We're nearing the halfway point in our Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers and I'm liking what I see. There are plenty of Modern playables in the set (even if the power level overall feels inconsistent) and plenty of intriguing cards to brew with and explore. Hopefully the missing madness enabler is just waiting to be revealed and wasn't left out in the woods. Time will tell. I'll just be happy if I can figure the Clues out. If you have theories or homes for any of these cards, I'm open to suggestions in the comments.

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