| Quiet Speculation

More Team Grand Prix, Please

Posted on February 3, 2015February 2, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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I don't watch much limited coverage. Unless you draft a ton, it can be difficult to know what's going on. In particular, when a commentator mentions some fringe-playable limited card in one player's hand without specifying what the card does it's difficult to follow everything that's happening in a game. Team events, I make an exception for.

The reason that Team GPs are so much more compelling is that the variance of the game is dramatically reduced. One great player can get outdrawn and make for a unexciting match. Three great players battling for the same match win reduces the chance that a given team loses strictly to variance. The reason that you see Sperling, Rietzl and Williams at the top of Team GP standings consistently is that they're all very good, they play a ton of team limited and they know each other super well. That discipline is just going to pay off more often when only two of the three need to win a round instead of putting all the weight on one player's shoulders.

While it can be fun to watch an unknown player work their way up the standings, I personally enjoy the celebrity aspect of the game more. In particular, watching the narrative of Paul Cheon at San Jose this weekend made the tournament all the more enjoyable. He literally needed the Pork Bun Oath to win the whole tournament to qualify for the Pro Tour next weekend and we got to watch that story unfold round by round.

Outside of being gas to watch, Team GPs drive substantial attendance. 656 teams played in San Jose, which strikes me as reason enough to believe that players would be happy to see more opportunities for team play.

There is a team GP in Detroit this year that falls on my birthday that I'm hoping to hit, but I would like to see at least one more team GP on the schedule. Specifically, I would like to see a constructed Team Grand Prix. If this were to happen I imagine that format would be Team Standard or Team Unified Standard. I would love to see a Team GP that followed the old Worlds team structure where each player played a different constructed format. I really like the way that finding a Legacy player, a Modern player and a Standard player impacts who you want on your team.

If it were your call to make, how would you amend the Team GP schedule?

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Insider: Mental Exercises Concerning Modern Masters 2015

Posted on February 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

This feels like a slow week. There were some exciting play-related shenanigans over the weekend, but an SCG Open and a Team GP, while good to watch, didn't teach us a ton about finance. Fate Reforged Spoilers are over and the cards' prices are beginning to establish themselves. Dragons of Tarkir spoilers are a month away.

Wait, what? Only a month? The last set literally just came out and we're already a month away from the start of spoiler season? Wow, okay.

I don't really know what's going to be in Dragons of Tarkir. There will be hundreds of cards and 99-100% of them will be brand new cards with set-specific abilities they haven't announced yet. We can speculate, but only the kind of speculation that makes you sound like a nerd unless by some miracle you hit a lucky guess and end up looking like a genius.

I won't speculate about Eldrazi in the last set of the block, Ugin's role in the lore, a new Sarkhan planeswalker or any other silliness. That's not even speculating; that's guessing and if I wanted to get paid to guess, I'd get a job at a carnival. I have something much more fun in mind.

Non-Baseless Speculation

It's never too early to talk about Modern Masters 2015. Why? Because we need to make our moves now if we're going to make them. I think this week I will cover what I think will be in the set and why I think that and next week we can talk about how to act on that information. Unless I don't do that next week.

I'm not contractually obligated to stick to vague plans I make spur of the moment, so stop acting like I am. I mean, regardless of what happens next week, this is what's up for this week, so buckle up, nerds; I'm about to drop knowledge bombs.

Just, you know, small knowledge bombs because we don't know a ton. What do we know?

Modern Masters (Hereafter Referred to as Modern Masters 1, I guess) had "a total 229 cards, consisting of 101 commons, 60 uncommons, 53 rares, and 15 mythic rares. Each booster pack contain[ed] a foil card. Reprints [we]re Modern-legal cards ranging from Eighth Edition through Alara Reborn." We don't know exactly how many rares and mythics will be in Modern Masters 2015, but we can extrapolate. MM1 had 229 cards and MM15 has 249 cards. With 20 more cards, we can get a rough estimate.

There were 101 commons before, so 101/229 = 0.441 and 0.441 x 249 = 109.8. I am guessing there are 110 +/- commons.

There were 60 uncommons, so 60/229 = 0.262 and 0.262 x 249 = 65.24. I am guessing there are 65 +/- uncommons.

There were 53 rares before, so 53/229 = 0.231 and 0.231 x 249 = 57.6. I am guessing there are 58 +/- rares, but maybe as many as 60.

There were 15 mythic rares before, so 15/229 = 0.066 and 0.066 x 249 = 16.3. I'd guess there are probably exactly 16 mythics.

This is all extrapolation. This would give us the 20 missing cards keeping the exact same proportions as last time.

Interesting to note, last time there were nearly the same number of uncommons and rares, making uncommons overprinted due to the small pool of uncommons printed three to a pack. This means that while Modern Masters didn't do much to curb the price of mythic rares, it had a real effect on the price of uncommons, or at least would have if there were really any high-priced uncommons in that set. No one was too worried about the price of Incremental Growth or Krosan Grip.

I predict they get a bit ballsier with uncommons in the next set. They can really curb some nutso uncommon prices on cards like Remand and increase availability on cards like Inquisition of Kozilek if they want to. The real question is whether they are going to.

I want to avoid having this article turn into a wishlist of cards that we'd all like to see come down in price. I think we want to have as realistic expectations as possible, so let's look at what we know about how they want to build the set based on what they've said.

What We Know

"Modern Masters (2015 Edition) takes players back to some of the most remarkable planes from recent history, including Zendikar, Mirrodin, Ravnica, Lorwyn, Kamigawa, and Alara. Featuring new artwork on a number of cards, every card in Modern Masters can be added to your favorite Modern-format decks. But first, enjoy a fresh Limited experience that combines some of Magic’s most iconic cards in new ways."

The press release tells us a few things. Make no mistake, this set is going to do the same thing the last one did and err on the side of draft archetypes rather than just an excuse to reprint a ton of cards. That means if we can figure out a few of the archetypes, we can figure out a few of the cards.

I think I would rather make educated guesses I'm reasonably sure of than try and guess every rare and mythic, so let's just base what we can on what we know. The last bit of information we have is that Etched Champion and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn are confirmed in the set. I'm going to milk as much out of each clue as I can.

Zendikar, Mirrodin, Ravnica, Lorwyn, Kamigawa, and Alara

This tells us more about what won't be in the set, frankly. Everyone, including me, has made a big deal out of how Innistrad cards like Snapcaster Mage and Geist of Saint Traft are safe from MM15 reprinting, so let's not belabor that.

It also gives us a range and a few sets to look at which have cards that are used in Modern and EDH that are a bit pricey.

Mirrodin listed as a plane alone doesn't tell us Scars block is included, but the inclusion of Etched Champion at least makes it impossible to rule out cards from that block. Last time we had a cycle of Kamigawa dragons at mythic which was a kick in the pants. If we're paying $10 MSRP this time around, it's reasonable not to rule out the cycle of praetors from this block.

All five praetors are used in EDH and Elesh Norn is a casual favorite whose price needs to come down. I won't call this a foregone conclusion, but if they want to include a cycle at mythic, this is a better choice than the spirit dragons were last time, as much as a cheaper Kokusho helps. I don't have much evidence for this other than, "they did a cycle last time and this one seems perfect," but I'm still reasonably certain we'll see these cards. They're good in Limited, after all.

There are a lot of good rares and mythics in these sets and if we're going to try and elucidate any of them, we'll have to look at how they construct limited sets and try and extrapolate from a very small list of known cards.

Every card in Modern Masters can be added to your favorite Modern-format decks

It's worth pointing out that every card needs to be legal in Modern. It doesn't have to be playable but it needs to be legal. This rules out cards like Birthing Pod, a card that seemed like a shoo-in last month.

But first, enjoy a fresh Limited experience that combines some of Magic’s most iconic cards in new ways.

This tells us that cards that have synergy and have never appeared together in Limited before will be here, but nothing specific. However, them repeatedly pointing out that this is a set that emphasizes its Limited playability is important. Why?

Emrakul Is in the Set

How do you play Emrakul in Limited? A Limited deck has 16-18 lands, and you're going to need all of them to cast Emrakul unless you have some help.

Jamming Emrakul is almost a combo since it's so tough to pull off. I see two possibilities as being likely and a third we can rule out.

I don't see a rare enabling Emrakul and I think we can rule that out. Cards like Through the Breach, Goryo's Vengeance etc. are good combos in Modern but not in Limited.

Last time we had the Kiki-Jiki/Pestermite combo with Pestermite at common. People who first-picked Kiki had a nearly 100% chance of getting a Pestermite in the draft if they tried. Pestermite was good on its own and fit with Faeries, Kiki was good on its own. Most importantly, Kiki was castable. Emrakul drafted early without a Summoning Trap or Goryo's Vengeance can't go in your deck and that feels bad. I don't imagine the only enabler for him is at rare.

The first is there are lots of Eldrazi. Three at mythic, maybe one or two at rare and the rest at uncommon and common. Cards like Skittering Invasion and possibly other Eldrazi enablers could be in the set to make drafting an Ulamog's Crusher or Artisan of Kozilek in almost any deck possible.

Another possibility is Urzatron lands with cards like Expedition Map. Tron lands would be good if the set has Scapeshift as well and multiple expensive spells. All of a sudden, Karn Liberated looks like a possibility.

Or both.

Etched Champion Is in the Set

This card is bad if metalcraft isn't possible. He's not an affinity card per se, but he doesn't pair poorly with artifacts. It sounds like there will have to be quite a few colorless cards in the set. Not the entire set, but enough that there are two different archetypes that have large colorless components. We may not see the affinity cards we saw last time, but rather metalcraft as a theme. Cards like Ezuri's Brigade that were underwhelming last time could get jammed in. We don't know.

What seems like a slam dunk is the inclusion of Mox Opal. With the high price it fetches and its applications in metalcraft and affinity, this seems like a strong possibility. We could speculate forever about other inclusions; Arcbound Ravager, Spellskite, Phyrexian Metamorph, ~~Birthing Pod~~ (you nerds wish!), but I would actually bet my money on Mox unlike the rest. We have a small number of slots.

That's really all the concrete information we know. Let's look at the mythics last time and see if we can use what we know to fill in some blanks.

Yosei
Jugan
Keiga
Kokusho
Ryusei
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Elspeth
Kiki-Jiki
Clique
Fire and Ice
Light and Shadow
Shackles
Progenitus
Sarkhan Vol

Half of these are kind of disappointing to have at mythic but this is a good list. What do we think we'll see for mythics next time around? Based on what we've gleaned from the clues, I think my list would look something like this.

Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Vendilion Clique
Emrakul
Karn Liberated
Mox Opal
Vorinclex
Jin Gitaxis
Elesh Norn
Sheoldred
Urabrask
Planeswalker #2 (Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas?)
Ulamog
Kozilek
Linvala / Iona
Will there be a 16th mythic?

A lot of this is conjecture, and the other Eldrazi are far from assured. But the mechanics of building a set in a way that a marquee card, Emrakul in this case, is castable dictate that they need a lot of enablers at common and uncommon, and having multiple Eldrazi seems reasonable, especially given their high price.

Next week we can delve into what we should do whether my list of mythics is accurate or not. I think there are moves to be made in the meantime leading up to the beginning of spoilers. Check in next week. Until then, try and see if you can guess the 15 or 16 mythics that will be in the set.

Insider: [MTGO] Investing in Full Sets – My Plan for Khans of Tarkir

Posted on February 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Thanks to a providential chain of events, January and February will be one of the most profitable two months period ever for MTGO speculation. The Modern format saw big changes with the introduction of Treasure Cruise and was shaken even more with the recent ban of the two blue delve spells and Birthing Pod. From a speculative point of view this is a unique occasion to generate tremendous profit on several dozens of cards, all at once.

For sure there is/was a lot of money to be made with Modern these days, provided you can spend enough time online tracking, buying and selling all of theses positions. If your bankroll is big enough, time might be the limiting resource, especially if you have reasonable family life and invest on MTGO as a hobby in addition to your day job.

Because of imminent changes in my day job I know I'll have considerably less time available for speculations on MTGO. Although Dragons of Tarkir, Modern Masters 2015 and M16 are three big speculative events within the next seven months I'm looking for ways to reduce my time online while still investing my Tix.

A simple way to reduce the time spent speculating on MTGO is to buy the most expensive cards you bankroll allows. Instead of buying 80 copies of Living End buy 3 copies of Liliana of the Veil, or speculate only on the five most expensive cards of MMA2015.

Surely, the percentage return might be lower with more expensive cards, but buying 3 copies of Liliana of the Veil takes far less time than buying 80 copies of Living End, and that's the point of doing so.

Another way to massively invest Tix on MTGO and that is not often discussed is acquiring complete sets. Buying a set means that 80 to 100 Tix are going to be invested at once, as one position. Similarly to boosters, whole set values fluctuate slowly and in a fairly predictable way. Actually, following whole set value fluctuations of core sets led me to the idea that buying all core set mythics probably was a risk free and profitable move, and it really was!

Today I'll discuss the investment plan I'm going to implement with the Khans of Tarkir set, a valuable set said to be the most redeemed on MTGO.

Investing in Sets

Why Sets?

Why am I going to invest in sets that fluctuate by 50% at most over six to twelve months when Modern cards are jumping by 100% every three months pretty much all year long? As I mentioned in the introduction there are, in my opinion, two main reasons to invest in sets--a large amount of Tix available and little spare time for speculations.

With a several-thousand-Tix big bankroll, investing in cards priced under 2 Tix is getting very time consuming for the relative low return they bring (even if the return percentage per spec is high). Although composed of hundreds of cards, one set represents one single position worth between 70 to 120 Tix in average. Aside from the practical aspect of buying and selling 250 cards at once you can "easily" sink 3,000 Tix in 25 or 30 sets.

As you'll see below, the general price trends are very stable, slow and predictable. Heavily drafted sets tend to remain flat and under-drafted sets gain value. Typically, Standard sets drafted the previous year tend to gain value as most people draft the newest sets.

With easily identifiable buying and selling periods you basically have to be in front of your computer twice in six months, although selling sets is certainly more tedious than buying them. But this is a huge difference in time spent to speculate on MTGO compared to regular specs that are ongoing almost every single day.

Speculating on sets is not likely to yield a triple digit percentage return. However the advantage of speculating on sets is that it sort of immunizes you again any unanticipated metagame shifts. If the value of individual cards from a set fall, others are likely to rise to balance the value of the set.

Previous Set Trends

Although Pro Tour schedules were different, the trend of set price evolution is pretty much always the same. The value of sets tends to bottom during the release of the third set and reach a peak during the following Standard Pro Tour.

Scars of Mirrodin and Innistrad sets bottomed around New Phyrexia and Avacyn Restored releases and were the most valuable around Pro Tour Dark Ascension and Pro Tour Gatecrash.

Both sets gained about 50%, lowest to highest.

Return to Ravnica and Theros have several differences from the two sets above. First, the Standard Pro Tours happened after Theros release for RTR and after Khans of Tarkir release for KTK. Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir actually followed Pro Tour M15 which was also in Standard.

Second, Between the third set of these two block and the following core set, two major releases occurred on MTGO--Modern Masters and Vintage Masters. These two eternal format sets lowered somewhat the bottom of Return to Ravnica and Theros.

Although the absolute bottom for RTR was reached in December 2013, a decent dip was observed during MMA release events and the value of the set had increased by about 30% from the summer 2013 and Pro Tour Theros.

Theros is probably the fall set that saw the least variations of the past four years, and is also one of the least appealing fall set of the past years. Nonetheless the set gained at least 30% in value between June-July 2014 and Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir.

Note that these kind of trends are also mostly true for second, third and core sets.

Buying Khans of Tarkir Sets

When

Based on previous trends, the best moment to buy sets is during the third set release events. If there is a special set during the summer, the release events of this set may push the newest Standard set values to an ultimate bottom. The Return to Ravnica set got a little bit cheaper during MMA release events than during Dragon's Maze release events. However, Vintage Masters didn't change the price of the Theros set much compared to its price during Journey into Nyx release events.

For Khans of Tarkir I will closely watch price fluctuations during Dragons of Tarkir release events next April. Depending on how deep the price of the KTK set goes, I will invest 50 to 70% of what I intend to allocate for the sets. With Modern Masters 2015 to be released later in May on MTGO I'll keep 30 to 50% of my Tix to buy Khans of Tarkir sets at that moment; a great tip is probable here.

How

In a fortunate coincidence, about two weeks ago Goatbots implemented the option to buy full sets. Although you could probably have worked out a deal with other major bot chains to acquire dozen of complete sets, this new feature from Goatbots set a standard for this kind of investment.

So, to buy complete sets you have two options--buying individual cards or buying complete sets all at once.

Buying individual cards from different vendors is likely to get you the best price for a set. This option can be, however, very time consuming and would save you about 5% in average compared to the best complete set price available.

I did that last year for four sets of Theros. I looked for the best prices for all the mythics and most of the rares and bought accordingly. I completed my sets (valued ~90 Tix per set at the time) with an average 5-7 Tix discount compare to Goatbots price. For four sets it took me close to an hour complete the task. I would not do this for sure for the quantity of sets I plan to buy, as one of my criteria for buying sets is to save time.

Several vendors, bots or humans, sell complete sets on the Classifieds. There's not a lot of them and comparing prices is easy. If you want to go for several sets you should probably contact them in advance and see what's doable in terms of delivery and prices. Doing so certainly will save you time, and possibly even money. That's what I intend to do, working out a deal with a major bot chain.

Selling Khans of Tarkir Sets

When

The previous years showed us that a peak in value of oldest Standard sets occurs during Standard Pro Tours following the release of the new fall set. This trend happens as players shift their attention from the newest Standard block to the special summer set, then to the core set and finally to the new fall set.

Concomitantly, the emergence of a new Standard format lifts up expectations of numerous cards from the previous block. Once pros settle the metagame during the Pro Tour prices stabilize with some falling and other rising. Not many price changes are observed in set value after the Pro Tour.

According to this, I plan on selling Khans of Tarkir sets in September-October around the release of the next fall set.

How

There are various options to buy sets, but it's relatively easy. Selling sets on the other hand can be more challenging but several options can be used to sell complete sets.

Selling online full sets for Tix - With this option you're looking to sell the complete set for its Tix value. It can be done by posting your offer on the Classifieds or by answering buying offers from humans or bots.

Selling online full sets for cash - This can also be achieved on the Classifieds for cash, using your preferred method of payment, instead of Tix this time around. You can also sell digital sets on eBay. I did that with two sets of Theros last year. Here, however, you will have to increase your price as eBay/Paypal fees swallow ~12% of your revenue.

Selling individual cards - You might not extract the full value of a set with this but it can faster and easier. If it happens that selling the mythics plus the top 20 rares is enough to get you 90% of the value of the set you may want to opt for this option. You then try to sell the uncommons and commons for bulk for a couple of cents of Tix, or as full sets of commons and uncommons!

Redeem sets - This last option could be the one that yields the most profit. Redeeming online sets for paper sets has a cost, but if you are able to sell the sets at average paper prices you will capitalize on the margins, albeit small, that exist between online and paper prices. Having a brick-and-mortar or online store is the best outlet for that kind of spec.

With the Khans of Tarkir sets I intend to buy I'll keep the whole spec online and plan on buying and selling in Tix. If everything works according to plan I'll be keeping my sets for five to seven months for a target profit of 20-30%. These percentages could be higher depending on my time available to look for the best prices.

Overall, investing in sets seems like a perfectly valid strategy to invest on MTGO, especially if you have a large amount of Tix to invest and limited spare time to do so.

Thanks for reading,
Sylvain

Making Magic: Whatever it Take

Posted on February 2, 2015 by Corbin Hosler

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I know we spend a lot of time here bring up Mark Rosewater, but it's only because he's so important in the community. Head designer, Magic historian and all-around awesome guy, MaRo's article are a highlight to many every week.

And, this being Sultai Week on the mothership - the week where it's all about the busted Delving colors - we had to include MaRo's take on it.

Welcome to Sultai Week! This week, we'll be talking all about the Black-Green-Blue wedge. As this is the fourth of five clan weeks, I'll be continuing my look at how the three colors from each clan get along. To do this, I'll put all three colors in a room together and interview them. I've previously interviewed the colors from Abzan, Jeskai, and Mardu. If you are interested in reading more about the color philosophies, you can check out my color pie page where I talk about the topic at great length (in more than 20 articles).

My goal with the wedge series is to help you all get a better sense of how the colors interact and what they think about one another. I'll ask questions and then get out of the way. As I've said my required explanation, let's get to the interview:

You can read the full article here.

Which Incomplete Cycles are Most Annoying?

Posted on February 2, 2015February 2, 2015 by Danny Brown

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There are a few incomplete cycles in Magic's history, and we're talking real cycles and fan-recognized cycles both. A real cycle that was long incomplete but was eventually completed was the Mirrodin sword cycle:

First we had Sword of Fire and Ice and Sword of Light and Shadow in Darksteel, and not until years later was the cycle completed in Mirrodin Besieged block, with Sword of War and Peace, Sword of Feast and Famine, and Sword of Body and Mind.

A while back, fans recognized that there was a cycle of overpowered two-drops in each color but red: Stoneforge Mystic in white, Snapcaster Mage in blue, Dark Confidant in black, and Tarmogoyf in green.

Luckly, this cycle was completed in Magic 2014 with Young Pyromancer. Some have argued Young Pyromancer's pedigree is not high enough to match those other cards, but it's pretty clear that it's proven itself in many different formats, so I subscribe to the idea of it taking its place in this cycle.

There are a few cards that come to mind for me when I think of still incomplete cycles. Because I am a Cube enthusiast who is a little obsessed with symmetry, they are mostly lands.

Each of these cards was printed in a cycle of allied colors, and each has not been complemented with a cycle of enemy color lands. This seriously bums me out, because I think fast lands and man lands would be snap includes for Cube if they didn't favor half of the color combinations over the other (the Mirage fetches are arguably not good enough even if the cycle were completed).

There's other options, like Morphling, Torchling, and Thornling, or you could make the case that we still need five more Swords of X and Y. Which incomplete cycle from Magic's history would you like to see completed?

Deck Overview: Standard Temur Aggro

Posted on February 2, 2015February 2, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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Temur strategies saw some fringe success in pre-Fate Reforged Standard, but the deck always felt like it was a little lacking. Savage Knuckleblade is a very powerful card, but it was a little shy on proper support until Fate Reforged launched. This weekend Jacob Eckert Top 8'd the SCG Premier IQ in Indianapolis with a very strong take on the deck.

Jacob Eckert's Temur Aggro

spells

3 Ashcloud Phoenix

3 Elvish Mystic

4 Flamewake Phoenix

4 Frost Walker

4 Rattleclaw Mystic

4 Savage Knuckleblade

3 Shaman of the Great Hunt

3 Boon Satyr

3 Lightning Strike

2 Wild Slash

4 Crater's Claws

lands

3 Forest

2 Mountain

4 Frontier Bivouac

2 Mana Confluence

3 Shivan Reef

1 Temple of Abandon

1 Temple of Epiphany

4 Wooded Foothills

3 Yavimaya Coast

sideboard

4 Disdainful Stroke

2 Magma Spray

2 Stubborn Denial

2 Temur Charm

3 Surrak Dragonclaw

2 Barrage of Boulders

Flaemwake Phoenix and to a lesser extent Shaman of the Great Hunt add some extra punch to the deck, but the real story here is arguably Frost Walker.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Frost Walker

It's difficult to overstate the power of a two-mana 4/1. While it technically has a drawback, very few decks are willing/able to target Frost Walker with spells that wouldn't kill a one-toughness creature anyway. Frost Walker is an absurdly efficient way not only to beat down, but also to "turn on" Crater's Claws and Flamewake Phoenix.

Earlier versions of Temur had difficulty keeping pace with Siege Rhino, but this build looks like it mitigates a lot of that problem. The extra fliers and a critical mass of four power creatures enables the deck to push through dramatically more damage.

Gruul Aggro was considered a better deck than Temur prior to Fate Reforged, but that could be changing. Savage Knuckleblade, Frost Walker and sideboard counterspells are all tremendous upgrades to the two-color deck. When the mana is this good in Standard, why not play the best combination of spells available to a given strategy?

Insider: A Hodge Podge of Info from SCG Indy

Posted on February 2, 2015January 17, 2022 by Derek Madlem

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There are a number of topics I wanted cover this week, but none of them were something I felt like forcing 1500 words on and frankly, some of this stuff might not wait another week. In light of this, here are a hodge podge of topics on my mind.

Promos

The Fate Reforged prerelease featured a chance for players to open free money. I heard rumors of an alternate art Ugin being offered at the prerelease and I softened my stance of "I'm never playing another prerelease again" to "okay, I'll bite." When the alternate art cards were confirmed I locked in my preregistration and loaded up my trade binder.

During my flight at the prerelease, I was not lucky enough to open the Ugin, but I announced to the room to open the packs and that I would trade heavily for it. One kid opened it and I told him I would give him double the value of a regular Ugin. Two Polluted Deltas and two Ashiok, Nightmare Weavers later, I owned an Ugin.

Then I got in my car and started driving home, I checked Twitter and saw a flurry of tweets that these were already selling for $100 on eBay. Oops, sorry guy.

There are two lessons here:

Stay informed. Using Twitter for up-to-the-second Magic related news can give you an edge or cost you one. Most of us now have the entire contents of the internet at our fingertips. If my trade partner had looked at completed eBay auctions, he could have gotten a lot more out of me for that Ugin.

Limited promos are serious business. We're already starting to see the prerelease foils for a number of the hot Khans of Tarkir cards match or even surpass the pack foil versions in price. All of the Ugin's Fate promos seem like a good pickup at this point, especially considering you can get most of them ultra cheap because there are few playable cards in the list.

For reference here's a complete list.

I talked with a number of my dealer and collector acquaintances at the SCG Open and the consensus is that Ugin is going to be a price juggernaut. We're two weeks out from the prerelease and he's already selling for $140. Long term they think the price will be similar to the full art foil Mutavaults from years ago...which are currently sitting around $700.

This is a card that if you have any desire to pick up, now's the time because that price is not coming down any time soon.

Cards on the Cusp

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

If you haven't caught on yet, Anafenza, the Foremost is the real deal. For whatever reason this card still seems to be dragging its feet when it comes to Constructed play. As more and more people jump on the Tasigur, the Golden Fang train in Standard, Modern, and Legacy, you can expect Anafenza to show up on some of those battlefields to keep graveyard shenanigans from getting out of hand.

This is another card that many vendors I talked to this weekend said they are taking foil copies out of their stock and waiting because they feel like a pretty big spike is coming soon. She's currently sitting at roughly $15, so there's plenty of room to grow long term.

[cardimage cardname="Titania, Protector of Argoth"]

This was not a card I expected to see at all this weekend at the Legacy Open, but things are shifting in Legacy and apparently Titania is one of the new players. I was pleasantly suprised to see Titania in play in matches both against me and even at the top tables. With the green commander deck being one of the least popular, Titania is likely to be in shorter supply than some of her counterparts.

A five-drop in a winning deck in Legacy may seem preposterous. Allow me to present exhibit A: http://youtu.be/ZnzS09dXiFg

Here's the deck list for reference.

I believe that we've only begun to see the innovations with Titania, Protector of Argoth in Legacy and after seeing this card in play multiple times this weekend, I'm definitely a believer. This is unlikely to see a reprint for a long long time, so it's a pretty safe speculation target long-term.

The Death of Legacy

Sorry kids, it's just not happening. The Legacy Open this weekend had an attendance in the high 500's and there was no lack of enthusiasm at the event. Legacy is and will remain a vibrant format that is still capable of attracting a crowd.

Even with the rising prices of many of Legacy's most popular cards, people are innovating new strategies with less expensive cards. Legacy is still a format that people are excited to play, and every time a player calls it quits another steps up to take up the torch.

Trading with Sigmund

The great thing about big events is getting to meet up with internet acquaintances and make them real life friends. I've met Sig briefly once before, but this event was first chance we've had to hang out for any amount of time.

As I'm sure most of you know, when two "financiers" sit down together...they have to make a trade. Neither one of us really needed anything from the other so we decided to make a "blind" trade: my Japanese Flagstones of Trokair for his Narset, Enlightened Master. After checking prices, it looks like I got sharked!

While we were talking Sig pulled out a sealed Modern Masters booster packed and asked jokingly if any of us wanted to trade for it, I confessed to being an absolute savage and handed him a couple Khans fetches and tapped the pack two times for good luck. Kira, Great Glass-Spinner--SHARKED AGAIN!

Fake Cards

The biggest and most concerning news to come out of this weekend is the passing of fake cards at the trade tables.

A local guy sat down near me with his binder open and I looked over from a few feet away and saw what looked like a Summer Edition Underground Sea. At first I was shocked and amazed that the guy had traded into something like that--I knew he had been grinding trades for a long time so I had to look closer. It was a fake, and his Bayou was fake...and another and another and another.

"Did you just trade for these?"

He turned white. He had just traded his entirely foiled out U/R Modern Delver deck for an assortment of fake dual lands and other staples like True-Name Nemesis and Liliana of the Veil. He promptly alerted Star City officials, but it was too late and his deceivers had left the scene of the crime. On Twitter, I saw that at least one other guy had been taken on a fake dual land as well.

While the local guy should have been able to spot them immediately, he got caught up in the moment and the exciting prospect of making a "good trade" and got took to the cleaners. These were not new, more advanced, fakes than the ones we learned about last year but now they are out there being passed maliciously by knowing scammers. The local guy was a fairly experienced trader and was still taken which begs the question: how many people didn't realize they were given a fake card?

If you don't know how to spot fake cards there's a great writeup here. Some of the simplest tricks still work the best.

Carry a small stack of Revised commons with you in a box, stick the suspect card randomly in the stack and look at the side of it ... if one card stands out, it's probably fake.

Remember that cards from Revised, Arabian Nights, Antiquities, Legends, and The Dark also have a different finish than every other set printed. They all have a chalky matte texture that you won't find in any other set--they will never appear glossy.

The other thing to come from the fear of fake dual lands is the increased number of people saying that they prefer SP condition duals because they're likely to be fake. To me this is blasphemy, but I can understand the logic. Expect to see the price gap between NM and SP versions of these cards to start closing.

Pro Tour

If my calculations are correct, we have a Pro Tour next weekend. This will result in the last big price shifts in Fate Reforged cards before settling into more predictable patterns until the next release. Be ready to capitalize on any price movement of cards featured in the tournament's breakout decks.

Remember to trade safe (not with sharks like Sigmund) and stay informed, we'll be back next weekend with a final analysis of my Fate Reforged boxes and any breakout hits from the Pro Tour.

Insider: Two Observations from SCG Indy

Posted on February 2, 2015January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Last weekend I indulged myself in a rare experience: I battled at the Star City Games Legacy Open in Indianapolis! After experiencing a bumpy start, I surprised even myself as I managed to string together a few consecutive victories. As it turns out, playing AnT is like riding a bike – although I only use the deck a couple times a year, I am able to quickly re-familiarize myself with all the nuisances it brings.

But this isn’t a strategy column. You’re reading this for the financial aspects. Fortunately I have a few key financial observations I want to share from this event. And while I was a bit disappointed with the measly three vendors available to sell to at the event, I still managed to pick up a couple useful tidbits of info.

Amazon Say What?

When you initiate trades with someone, what’s the typical source of data you use for pricing? Star City Games prices? TCG Mid or Low pricing? Maybe cash prices, if the trade calls for it?

These are all reasonable options. But for some reason, one vendor at the SCG Open wasn’t really interested in those websites. Instead, they used Amazon for pricing.

Amazon??? Really???

Apparently the vendor primarily sells on Amazon, and so they used Amazon.com pricing to estimate their buy prices. I’m pretty sure Amazon prices can be weirdly high sometimes, so that was fine by me!

One example that leaps out in my mind was foil Summoning Trap.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Summoning Trap

A couple months ago I picked up a couple foil and nonfoil copies after reading about how many QS Insiders felt it was underpriced. At $1-$2 each, grabbing a few SP to MP foils felt like a relatively low risk.

As it turns out, foil Summoning Trap starts at around $10 on Amazon.com. Naturally the vendor offered roughly 50% of this price, or about $5, for my copies. Not too bad, considering TCG Low is $3.59 and the top buy price on Trader Tools for foils is around $3. Plus, with my copies being SP to MP, the deal was sweet.

It is worth noting that foil Summoning Trap has been on quite the run of late. I’ll point this out now since I just realized the jump recently myself.

All in all I sold through a seemingly random array of cards that were just a bit more expensive on Amazon, leading to favorable buy prices. Nothing broken, mind you. In fact when the dealer observed there were zero foil Gilt-Leaf Archdruid in stock, they refused to offer me a price. If only I knew someone who could have listed a copy at $20 before I approached the booth!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gilt-Leaf Archdruid

The other noteworthy sell I made was my SP Sword of Fire and Ice, for $30. The card has bounced lately, but that $30 price tag is just a few bucks below TCG Low. This was a deal I could not pass up.

The Real Story

While I had never before worked with a dealer who based their prices on Amazon, this was not really the MTG finance headline of the Legacy Open. Unfortunately there was a negative story which stirred the room.

Someone brought a bunch of counterfeit dual lands to the Open and managed to trade about “$2,000” worth to an unsuspecting trader. It did not take long for savvy speculators and experienced players to point out the horrid truth: the poor trader gave up a couple thousand dollars in cards and was left with a stack of counterfeits.

This kind of thing is terrible for the game of Magic. The lack of integrity really hurts because it discourages players from pursuing the game. But is this bad for prices overall?

Allow me to pose a thesis.

We all know there have been counterfeits of Power for years now. I wouldn’t touch a piece of Power unless I trust the seller – that means they either must be a major vendor or they need thousands of feedback. Otherwise the risk of getting stuck with a fake is just too serious.

Nowadays the prices of dual lands are starting to become as expensive as Power was a few years ago. Volcanic Island and Underground Sea are even knocking on the door of $300 – this is more than what I paid the first time I picked up a Mox!

Let’s follow this string of logic further and see where it gets us. If we accept the premise that players who want Power are more likely to acquire from trusted vendors, then those vendors are more likely to sell out of stock. After this happens enough times, they are obligated to increase their buy prices so they can bring new copies in. And with their trained and experienced staff, they can be confident they’ll successfully avoid counterfeits.

This buy price increase can sometimes be gradual, but it generally moves in only one direction: up. Of course, there are also the instances where a major vendor like Star City Games suddenly jacks up their buy prices out of the blue, causing an actual spike in the Power market.

This is exactly what happened recently.

Now we are seeing significantly higher prices for Power – prices that are likely here to stay.

So what happens now that dual lands are also under extreme scrutiny as more counterfeits enter the market? I don’t know about you, but I am going to make 100% sure a dual land is authentic before acquiring.

That may mean I request a trusted third party verification of authenticity. Or it may mean I only pick up duals from friends or trustworthy vendors. Either way, the days of winning that lucky auction for a NM Tropical Island for $110 from a seller with 2 feedback are long gone. I won’t take such risks anymore.

If others follow suit, what do you think will happen? I propose that dealers will start to have a tougher time keeping duals in stock. They will continue to acquire copies by scrutinizing every one closely, as they always do. But if demand for duals from vendors increases because players want assurance of authenticity, then maybe sellers won’t be able to keep stock so easily.

This could lead to an increase in buy prices, leading to a spike in overall values.

Now don’t get me wrong – there are a ton more dual lands in existence than there are pieces of Power. I get it. But I don’t think that takes away from the possible trend. Price increases may be more gradual, but I still think they will happen.

And with Spring right around the corner, I also anticipate upward pressure from the cyclical nature of Magic. Prices tend to rise that time of year and I don’t expect 2015 to be an exception.

Therefore I must maintain a buy recommendation on most dual lands. Spring time will bring the next bounce (hopefully), and I don’t see counterfeits destroying this secondary market. Not as long as people can tell the difference between what’s fake and what’s real. And should history repeat itself, I actually see counterfeits causing an increase in prices. As long as Legacy stays healthy and demand remains steady, this is my prediction.

And judging by the fact that in nine rounds of Legacy I did not battle against the same deck twice, I’m fairly confident the format is as robust as ever!

…

Sigbits

I especially like Tropical Island right now. With the banning of Treasure Cruise, players are more likely to revert back to classic builds of Delver decks, which often came in the form of RUG or BUG. This bodes well for the blue-green dual land. Star City Games has a $219.99 price tag for NM copies and $179.99 for MP. (Tundra is the same price!) Their stock is reasonable with 69 total Revised copies in stock, but I suspect the numbers to dwindle in the coming months. Perhaps I should track it for you here?
One of my losses last weekend was to Omni-Tell, which wins the game by casting a copy of Enter the Infinite for free. While picking up non-foil copies may be unexciting, it’s definitely noteworthy that SCG is out of foil stock with a price tag of $7.99. I expect this to go higher.
I can’t harp on dual lands enough. I really think we bottomed here. Volcanic Island is the most likely candidate to bump higher next. Star City Games sells NM copies for $299.99 and MP copies for $249.99. The total number of Revised copies they have in stock: nine.

Insider: A New Modern Metagame – What the First Post-B&R Tournament Results Mean

Posted on January 31, 2015March 30, 2015 by Adam Yurchick

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As of Friday the 23rd, Fate Reforged is Modern legal.

That means some powerful new cards, like Monastery Mentor and Tasigur, t"he Golden Fang, are legal. But, more importantly, that means the latest Banned and Restricted Announcement is in effect, and Modern is operating under a new banned list.

With a new banned list, the Modern metagame is very much in upheaval. It’s a very new world out there, but it’s full of familiar faces.

As the Modern metagame shakes itself out from now until after the Modern Pro Tour: Fate Reforged, expect a huge variety of decks vying for the top spot in the metagame. At this point, it’s hard to tell exactly what will happen with the metagame, but the picture is beginning to form.

There is already some great data available, because last Sunday there was a Modern Premier IQ attached to the Open Series and it drew a lot of talent to the field. I have used these decklists to create a baseline Modern testing gauntlet for the new format.

These decks also paint a picture of the financial landscape by giving a practical perspective of what strategies may be viable in the format and how specific cards will be applied competitively.

Here’s what the metagame picture looked like on Thursday:

Abzan Midrange

The most popular archetype at the Modern IQ was Abzan Midrange, aka Junk Rock, which put four players into the Top 32, including the second overall finish.

This finals decklist is unique in its inclusion of a full playset of Voice of Resurgence, highlighting the fact that this card has applications in the new Modern. This deck also features some cards that are sure to be staples in this archetype going forward, including Siege Rhino, Lingering Souls, and the new Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

His sideboard features a wide array of cards, but Creeping Corrosion stands out as a card that’s sure to be in high demand this Modern season as a way to combat Affinity.

Reid Duke was also in attendance, and he put up a 19th place finish with his classic take on the archetype. His inclusion of two Timely Reinforcements seems like a very wise move in a format where Burn and Zoo are sure to be popular.

Deathmark is another standout against a field heavy in Tarmgoyf, Wild Nacatl, and Siege Rhino. Reid’s inclusion of Elspeth, Knight-Errant in the archetype might be a sign of things to come, and because of its application in other archetypes, like Jeskai or Zoo with Geist of Saint Traft. It’s a card I’m paying attention to.

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Abzan also finished in 12th and 15th place.

Four archetypes were tied for second-most popular, each with three representatives in the Top 32. I present them in order of the highest overall finish for the archetype.

GR Tron

GR Tron is a deck left unscathed by the banned list changes. While the loss of prey in Birthing Pod decks hurts, overall it’s such a powerful archetype that it will always be a player when there isn’t much hate in the format.

It finished as high as 5th place, along with finishers in 22nd and 24th. The decklists are relatively stock overall, but the 24th place version showcase a pair of Ugin, The Spirit Dragon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ugin, The Spirit Dragon

Affinity

Affinity graced the Top 8 with its presence, and it is not surprising. This deck seems to have gained a lot from the format changes, and it is poised to be a major player going forward. An interesting inclusion in two of the decklists is a singleton Ghostfire Blade, which is quite powerful in a deck full of colorless creatures, and it’s a card I expect to catch on in the archetype.

Affinity also finished in 21st place, and in 31st place.

Burn

Burn just missed the elimination rounds with a 9th place finish, and missed the Top 16 with a 17th place finish, as well as 25th place. Burn proved itself as one of the top decks in Modern before the printing of Treasure Cruise, so it’s no surprise that it will rise to the top in the wake of that card’s banning.

It beat up on Junk and Jund decks all of last summer, but Siege Rhino is a problem, however, so expect to see lots of Skullcrack and Flames of the Blood Hands in the archetype.

Jeskai Flash

Jeskai Flash put up solid numbers with three pilots in the Top 32, where it finished as high as 11th. One copy finished in 20th, and another copy finished in 26th,

This tempo and attrition-based archetype was a clear loser from the printing of Treasure Cruise, and it certainly benefits from the banning of the troublesome Birthing Pod.

Historically, this archetype preys on Affinity and Zoo decks, but it’s a typical midrange deck in that it can be tailored to beat any metagame, but isn’t necessarily strong against everything all of the time.

It’s quite fair in comparison to what other decks are doing, but it also plays many of the most powerful and efficient cards in the format. A perennial favorite among the pros and grinders alike, I expect this archetype to have many champions playing it at the Pro Tour.

The next five archetypes each put two pilots into the Top 32.

GW Auras

Ultimately winning the IQ was GW Auras, or Bogles. This deck preys on fair, race-oriented decks like Zoo and Burn, and it’s also quite strong against midrange opponents that don’t have access to enough hate cards. It’s weakest against combo decks, but it has access to great sideboard options. Another copy graced the Top 32.

Zoo

Zoo seems like a winner from the bannings, now that it’s not fighting an uphill battle against a sea of Treasure Cruise and Lightning Bolt.

It’s hard to ignore Zoo’s third-place finish in the hands of Pat Cox--a longtime Zoo aficionado who has a great track record with the archetype and a history of collaborating with many of the top pros in the country. His version works to maximize the powerful Geist of Saint Traft by playing Noble Hierarch to accelerate, Mutagenic Growth to protect it in combat and from board sweepers, and Elspeth, Knight-Errant to push it past any ground-based defenders.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutagenic Growth

The archetype also finished in the Top 16. I expect decks like these two to be major players at the Pro Tour.

Storm

Storm Combo put two copies into the Top 8, finishing 4th and 6th, something no other archetype can claim. Judged on that metric, it was the most successful archetype of the tournament.

Storm seems like a big winner with the banning of Treasure Cruise and the decline of the aggressive and disruptive UR Delver archetype. Storm is best when hate cards are minimal in the metagame, meaning now is a good time for the archetype.

Merfolk

Merfolk surprised a lot of people with its strong finish at GP: Omaha, and it’s likely even better in a world post-Treasure Cruise. I’m looking towards Tidebinder Mage as the new Merfolk archetype all-star.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tidebinder Mage

It put up a strong finish at the IQ with a Top 16 finish and a 32nd place finish.

Tarmo-Twin

Splinter Twin combo appears to be a winner with the new bannings. While the loss of Dig Through Time hurts, it has gained a lot with the decline of UR Delver.

It’s a great option in an open, unfocused format, especially one where Splinter Twin is off the radar, a. People have also been cutting Torpor Orb with the decline of Birthing Pod.

It put up a Top 16 finish in the IQ, along with a Top 32 finish in the hands of Todd Anderson.

Jund

Jund isn’t particularly appealing when Abzan gives access to Siege Rhino, but Lightning Bolt is still perhaps the single best card in Modern, and red comes with its own share of great sideboard cards like Ancient Grudge and Shatterstorm for Affinity, Sowing Salt for Urzatron, Combust for Splinter Twin, Restoration Angel, and Siege Rhino, and the powerful Anger of the Gods.

It put up a Top 8 finish in the IQ.

Scapeshift

Scapeshift was a loser in the banning of Dig Through Time, but it’s historically strong against aggressive decks like Affinity and Zoo, so it may be well positioned to attack the metagame.

Assault Loam

Seismic Assault-Life from the Loam has long been a Modern archetype with mild success A metagame shakeup might be exactly what it needs to find a new lease on life, as it reached the Top 32 of the IQ. It’s a very interesting home for Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

UR Delver

Any death knells for UR Delver are premature, because the former top deck in Modern still has access to a core of very strong cards. It was among the best Tier-2 archetypes in the format before Treasure Cruise, and it will continue to rear its head.

Dredgevine

Dredgevine was lauded as the biggest winner from the unbanning of Golgari Grave-Troll, and with a tTop 32 finish at the IQ, it has now scored its first success of many in the new format. This finish isn’t high-profile, so expect it to get some attention but not enough to trigger any massive metagame or market reaction.

Keep your eyes peeled towards the Pro Tour.

This plays the usual archetype staples, but the addition of Delve creatures is interesting and a sign of things to come. Hooting Mandrills is a solid role-player, but it's clear that Tasigur, the Golden Fang has found another home.

Grixis

Grixis control has been a perennial Tier-2 Modern archetype, but it threatens to rise to the top.

This deck gains a huge strategic game-changer from the printing of Tasigur, the Golden Fang, which functions something like a Tarmogoyf without splashing into green. This deck has always suffered from a lack of meaningful board presence, but things are different.

This archetype also has all of the tools necessary to quell an aggressive tide or to disrupt a combo deck, so, if properly built for the expected metgame at hand, it could be a contender.

What are you thoughts on these archetypes? What other decks are on your radar? Share in the comments!

Insider: Building Something of Lasting Value

Posted on January 31, 2015January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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I first got into Magic around Ice Age, but I was lucky enough to have an uncle who bought a bunch of Revised and Legends cards and then never learned to play the game. I was the fortunate recipient of this windfall, which included five dual lands and a Mana Drain.

Of course, I didn't give a crap about those cards. What I really cared about were sweet fatties like Sengir Vampire and Scaled Wurm. Most of all, I liked Serra Angel. Here's something that I should either be too ashamed to admit or gives me a ton of nerd cred (you decide): I had the art for Serra Angel put on my retainer when I was eleven or twelve.

That Mana Drain? I thought it was awful. Mana burn was a thing back then, and I was a typical bad player, too afraid to use my life total as a resource (I also thought Swords to Plowshares was bad because it gave the opponent life. Sigh). I never played with that Mana Drain, not even once, and I have legitimately no idea where it ended up.

As for the duals: I sold them to a neighborhood kid for $20 each, which seemed like so much money at the time. I believe I spent the proceeeds on Ice Age Starter Packs, which is just horrendous by every metric. I kept playing through Urza's Saga block, and had a nice little collection of mid-value cards by the time I hit high school and lost interest in Magic.

What I wish I could say I did at this point was stash the rest of my cards away, only to dig them out more than a decade later when I got back into the game. What actually happened is that I decided to sell them, but unfortunately, my outs at that time consisted of a bunch of high school kids.

In general, high school kids don't have a ton of money, and after a failed attempt to trade all my cards for a Nintendo 64 (I was thwarted by my trade partner's parents, dammit), I ultimately ended up piecing out the collection bit by bit for far less than I should have accepted. The only cards I kept were for an awful green deck that I never actually played but held onto just to have at least a few Magic cards around. Those cards sat rubberbanded in my desk drawer until I left for college.

Regrets (and Lessons about Standard)

Yeah, I regret my short-term outlook at that time, but I was young and dumb, and I try not to dwell on stupid stuff I did when doing stupid stuff is the expected behavior. What I can do now, however, is learn from the mistakes I made and not repeat them.

First and foremost: I was way too interested in Standard (Type 2?) junk in those days. Remember how I said I built a nice little collection of mid-value cards? We're talking stuff like Tradewind Riders, Palinchrons, Serra Avatars, and Time Warps. These were cards that were super exciting for their time, but ultimately were passing fads with little impact on today's Magic outside of casual formats.

Here's my first lesson: don't build a collection of Standard cards. This is especially true if you're the type of player that doesn't get out to too many events. From my perspective, Standard is for grinders.

The money investment in collecting Standard cards will never be worth it from a purely financial perspective, unless you're winning store credit at FNM every week and spiking the occasional IQ or GPT. If you can win a bunch of store credit, travel awards, and/or cards playing Standard, then buylist your deck for a decent fraction of what you bought it for, the format can absolutely add value to your collection.

But if you don't fit in this camp, I would strongly, strongly advise you to keep away from Standard. In fact, if you're playing mostly casual formats, I think exercising patience by not buying Standard staples until after rotation is a very reasonable strategy to ensure you don't pay more than you should for your cards. (It is also perfectly reasonable to pay a higher price to play with a card you love sooner.)

Competitive Formats and Lasting Value

Nowadays, I always view Magic collecting through the lens of how a collection will look in the future. I want to have cards available that will still be powerful five, ten, even twenty years from now, and not a bunch of Standard nonsense that has been long-outclassed and forgotten.

Competitive eternal formats are a good place to start. If you think your future with Magic will most likely involve attending large, competitive tournaments, then working toward a Vintage or Legacy deck is a great place to store value. Yes, occasionally decks fall out of vogue or get banned out of the format, but staples like duals, fetches, Force of Wills, and the like will always be useful. If you're ready to take the step to picking up Power, building Vintage decks should be relatively easy for you in the future.

Modern is a different story. Trying to build up a large Modern collection is asking for trouble when you consider bannings, Modern Masters sets being released on a regular basis, and high-profile Standard reprints coming a few times a year. I wrote here about how I'm torn regarding how to handle a personal collection for the format (MTG finance is so much easier when you don't bring "personal collections" into the deal). I have a few more thoughts on the subject.

My first instinct is just to have all the lands in the format. That's certainly not a novel approach, but unless the DCI finally listens to the pleas of certain outspoken pros, the fetch-into-shock mana bases of Modern are likely here to stay.

Here's my concern, though: every major land reprinting in the last few years has come in Standard-legal sets. We saw the shocklands in Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash, then got another immediate reprint in Dragon's Maze. The same thing happened with the fetchlands in Khans of Tarkir, with an immediate reprint in Fate Reforged.

On the other hand, Modern Masters didn't have any major land cycles—it appears the design team just didn't have the space. Basically, lands important to Modern have been printed in sets that will most likely drag down prices. If this trend continues, even lands may not be safe long-term holds.

I'm still unsure about Modern as a place for parking long-term value, so I'll be keeping a very close eye on Modern Masters 2015. The reprints in that set—and even more importantly, the print run—will be a huge indicator for how to approach Modern moving forward. Keep your ears to the ground, folks.

Casual Benefits

Casual formats are great for storing long-term value, because unlike tournament decks, casual collections rarely become unplayable due to metagame changes or bannings. This is especially true because the most popular casual formats, Commander and Cube, are singleton, so any one card getting banned generally does not delegitimize an entire deck or strategy.

What's also great about these formats is that you can put exactly as much money and effort into them as you'd like. If you just want to play giant monsters but not worry about monetarily expensive cards, that's fine. If you want to build a perfect mana base with fetch and shocklands, that's cool, too.

Want to go to the extra mile and pick up duals? You're allowed. Want to foil out your deck or cube? That's a big undertaking, but it will be a lot of fun. And, of course, powered cubes are taking the ultimate step in storing value in a casual collection.

Tiny Leaders, the new format everyone is talking about, is great for this type of thing, too. With so many similarities to Legacy, Tiny Leaders is a great way for one to take a step deeper into locking in value in one's Magic cards. I currently own zero dual lands, and given how expensive they are and how far I am from building a Legacy deck, I didn't really have any plans to acquire any.

But this Tiny Leaders format looks cool, and it seems to be catching on in my community, with a few tournaments already firing. As a Spikey player, I like to play optimized decks, so if I get involved (and if I do, it will almost certainly be with this guy), I will certainly be picking up the three duals to make the manabase perfect.

That's a first step into Legacy, my friends, and I think a lot of people will see it this way, too. If Tiny Leaders catches on like Commander did, I would expect Legacy staples to climb even higher, both due to demand from the format and the format being a great jumping-off point to get into Legacy.

Build Something to Be Proud Of

So as you buy and sell and trade and play Magic, try to keep in mind the value of building something of lasting value. Acquiring a bunch of crap for Standard that rotates and loses all value doesn't do it. Haphazardly acquiring Modern staples is better, but is looking riskier all the time between bannings and reprintings. What really will help you enjoy your cards most and lock in value is focusing on eternal staples, either competitive or casual (or both), that will be fun to play today but also ten or twenty years from now.

If you do it right, the next time you take a break from Magic (and we all do occasionally), you'll have two solid choices: 1) Sit on the awesome cards you've collected in anticipation of your inevitable return; 2) Cash out and enjoy a major purchase with all the value you stored while playing MTG. Both of these options seem pretty good—don't you agree?

The Truth of the Truth of Names – On Wizards and Alesha Being Transgender

Posted on January 30, 2015January 31, 2015 by Jason Alt

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The internet has been buzzing about a recent Vorthos article on the Mothership. This one, specifically. In it, James Wyatt reveals something that no one knew until now.

"That kill could have been yours."

She watched him carefully as her words sank in. He bristled, drawing himself up even taller. "Gedruk stole it."

"Did he?"

"I saw you hold back. I saw you cut the beast's claw instead of its neck. Why?"

The orc snarled. "I don't know."

"You could have earned your war name," she said. "Know who you are, and claim it."

Anger twisted the orc's face and he took another step toward her. "You tell me this? A human boy who thinks he's a woman?"

Huh. Apparently Alesha was allowed to choose her own name after winning glory in battle, and chose her grandmother's name.

Is this a big deal? The internet, in typical "being terrible" fashion, seems to take umbrage with it. There are a lot of different opinions and I was mostly proud of the Magic community.

To me (and I may just have a good Twitter feed devoid of terrible people), all I saw was people applauding the decision to have a major character be transgender, and the worst I saw was people who were annoyed.

"Great, it happened. Why make a big deal out of it?"

Why, indeed, make a big deal out of it? Here's why.

Alesha is a positive role model. Instead of portraying a male to female transgender character as some sort of weak and effeminate character, Alesha is a certified badass. Alesha was able to choose her name by winning glory on the battlefield and is not only a powerful, well designed card, she's also a compelling storyline character. I don't get super deep into Vorthos, but for people who do, having Alesha be a badass was a good choice transgender people see a character not at all held back or looked down upon, just a warrior respected by her clan. Not just anyone becomes a Khan.
It cost nothing. This was an easy thing for Wizards to do. They engendered good will and showed their commitment to diversity and inclusion and all they had to do was write a story they were going to write anyway. This was a great PR move and a very easy way to demonstrate their values as a brand in an unobtrusive way that literally didn't cost them an extra dime.
Who cares? The LGBTA community cares, for one. This is a bit of a token gesture, but it's one that Wizards didn't have to make and it's a positive step toward progress. People who feel marginalized in this community may feel less so or at least see that Wizards is making an effort. The other people who really care about it are transphobes and I don't mind when those people make themselves known to the community by freaking out over something that literally has no effect on the game. Sure, Wizards didn't have to court controversy because it added nothing to the set beyond flavor and could potentially anger some people, but Wizards is showing they don't care what intolerant people think. They shouldn't. Get upset over an imaginary transgender character in a children's card game. Good luck with that.
It feels shoehorned in as if they thought of it at the last second, possible after watching the movie Mulan. However, on his blog, Doug Beyer confirms that the character is canonically transgender and it was always this way. This wasn't an afterthought, it was a commitment Wizards made as they were designing the khans. They handled the character respectfully and showed that transgender people don't necessarily fit in some preconceived stereotype.

This isn't the most courageous thing a company has ever done, but that's the point. They didn't announce it with a lot of fanfare or make a huge announcement--they quietly slipped it into a story they had written for the mothership.

Is that because they're scared and hoped people wouldn't notice? No way.

They announced it in this manner because they aren't actually the ones who made a big deal out of it. Because, you know what? It's not a big deal that some people are transgender.

The transgender community doesn't need to be put on a pedestal and lauded on principal any more than they should be derided or mocked. Wizards didn't make a huge deal out of Alesha's gender because it isn't that big a deal. They created a transgender character because there is no reason not to, and they didn't make her different from other characters because she really isn't.

Alesha is just another member of the pantheon of characters created by Wizards. She's tough, strong, a natural born leader, and she's not afraid of judgment from her enemies or the warriors in her clan.

Let's not make a big deal out of Alesha being transgender, but let's make a big deal out of Wizards not making a big deal out of it. It was a good move on their part and it's a big step into the 21st century, especially when you look at their 20th century track record.

Good for Wizards of the Coast.

Edit: This article originally included the word "transgendered", which was quickly changed after a Redditor pointed out that "transgender" is the preferred term.

Although it's a subtle difference, the latter is preferred because it clarifies that the term is describing an aspect of that person, rather than using a past tense and implying that it is an event or a thing that occurred to that person.

Using preferred terms to describe minority groups is a clear way to help marginalized groups feel included, showing a willingness to change a behavior or term that makes others uncomfortable or distressed.

- /u/Salmon_

Gray Areas: Opponents Presenting Illegal Decks

Posted on January 30, 2015February 11, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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Debates over what actions are angle-shooting and which are outright scummy are interesting to me. For that reason, I'm starting a series of articles to set up scenarios and ask players how they would conduct themselves in specific situations. I think it will be interesting to hear who would do what, when, and why.

This week I'm going to provide two very similar scenarios with one very relevant difference. Both of these happened to me over the last year.

Scenario 1

My opponent and I were shuffling up for game one and we both presented our decks. We presented and drew our opening hands. While evaluating our hands, a judge came over and game my opponent a card that his opponent from the round prior had accidentally taken after their match ended. It was a card from my opponent's maindeck, meaning that he had presented an illegal deck. The judge ruled that since the round hadn't started he would "be nice" and downgrade the penalty, which is usually a game loss, to a warning.

Would you appeal the judges ruling?

Scenario 2

My opponent and I once again found ourselves drawing hands before the round clock had started. My opponent looked at his hand with a perplexed look on his face and called a judge after about 30 seconds. He had drawn a sideboard card, meaning that he had forgotten to de-sideboard and thus presented an illegal deck. Once again, the first judge called issued a warning.

Would you appeal this judges ruling?

My Take

Neither situation suggests that the opponent was trying to cheat anybody. The first opponent very clearly forgot a card and the second opponent called the judge on himself. The fact that the second opponent called the judge on himself is the key difference between the two scenarios. The first scenario displays a player unknowingly breaking a rule and the second displays a player realizing that he had broken a rule and taking the appropriate steps to right the wrong.

I completely understand the rationale of anybody who would accept the warning in either or both situations. Personally, I chose to appeal both times. I feel like players don't appeal as often as they should, and given the knowledge that the penalty for presenting an illegal deck regardless of circumstance is a game loss and also given the fact that there were substantial stakes in both tournaments, I believe that appealing in both situations is a reasonable thing to do.

For the record, the head judge overturned the warning in the first scenario in favor of a game loss, whereas the initial ruling was upheld in the second scenario. I was informed at the time of the ruling in the second scenario that the Infraction Procedure Guide actually lists this scenario as an example of a time when a game loss can be downgraded at the discretion of the head judge.

What would you have done?

Insider: MTG Stock Watch 1/25/15

Posted on January 30, 2015January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, fellow speculators!

After the excitement of last week and the B&R updates, it's time to jump back into the movers and shakers of the MTG finance realm. For the penny stocks this week I will exclude the two biggest gainers as they are the two cards that got unbanned last week and have spiked in response (Worldgorger Dragon and Golgari Grave-Troll).

Penny Stocks

#1 - Scion of the Ur-Dragon (+235.2%) - Fate Reforged brought us a bunch of new exciting dragons with cool abilities, but most importantly several with an ability that triggers whenever a dragon attacks (so you can get multiple triggers). Scion is your quintessential five-color dragon general (and your only dragon option at that).

His spike wasn't really all that surprising given the theme of the set. What is interesting is that it took until January 17th for any change, despite the fact that the dragons had all been spoiled before then. The massive and sudden spike does imply a buyout. I expect his price to stay higher than the previous $2, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him drift back down towards the $4 mark.

#2 - Frontier Siege (+193%) - This Fate Reforged gem saw significant camera time at the first Fate Reforged-legal Standard Open (SCG DC). Led by Ali-Antrazi's Sultai Ramp deck, it helps power out Ugins and other giant spells. The "dragons" choice with Hornet Queen is also pretty nasty. The important thing is that you could buy these on Saturday on TCG player (as I did for under $1) after watching the SCG coverage.

#3 - Tasigur, the Golden Fang (+161.5%) - This is another FRF card that saw significant camera time on the SCG Open and even found a home in some Modern decks (including the second place deck of said Open). This guy is looking to be the real deal as a cheap beater with a useful card advantage ability tacked on. Another card that was $5 on Saturday, $5 on Sunday and now $13.

I can't stress enough how important it is to watch the SCG coverage the weekend after a set is released. There's a lot of potential money to be made. Now Tasigur (as cool as he is) is not a $13 card. He jumped up in a day and I expect he'll slowly slide back down as those who jumped on the bandwagon at $10+ will be weary of trading him away when he slips back down to $5 (which he will do as more product is released).

#4 - Waste Not (+41.5%) - Maybe all the discard-happy players missed the spoiling of Dark Deal, maybe they didn't read it until they cracked it in their Fate Reforged pre-release. Either way this card's jump is not likely to stick, unless someone can make a tier 1.5+ Standard deck based around it.

This was an M15 rare (a relatively unopened set, by today's standards) and it was player created, so I was a fan of picking it up in trade at it's old price. Less so at the new one, though at sub $5 there's still room to grow.

#5 - Bridge from Below (Future Sight) (+18.5%) - As expected one of the many sub $5 cards that plays really well with Golgari Grave-Troll (and isn't banned like Dread Return), this one is riding the coattails of Grave-Troll. However, unless a dredge deck actually materializes, I expect both to sink in value as players try and fail to make a tier 1 deck. If they succeed...then buy more Scavenging Oozes.

Blue Chip Stocks

#1 - Force of Will (+2.82%) - With the shift in the Legacy metagame towards blue-based tempo decks (of which FoW is a staple), it's not surprising to see FoW continue its upward trend. However, with the banning of Treasure Cruise in Legacy, the aggro-control (or tempo) U/R/x decks will likely see a drop in percentage of the metagame and players will revert back to a more pre-Khans style format. This is still good news for Force of Will which is still a major player in many of those decks.

#2 - Scrubland (-2.13%) - Not surprisingly we see one of the non-blue duals continue a downward trend. There is some hope for the Esper Stoneblade decks to once again rise in prominence (as Treasure Cruise decks lost their main source of card advantage) so we could very well see a bounce for Scrubland. But until those Esper decks materialize I expect this one will rise/fall around the $75 mark (which was its pre-April price).

#3 - Badlands (+1.96%) - This seems to go directly against what I said above, however Badlands has been waffling around the $75 mark for the past few weeks. I won't be surprised if we see it back down a bit again in two weeks. I feel like this one falls in line with Scrublands above and will likely stay around $75 for awhile.

#4 - Sneak Attack (-1.79%) - This one doesn't honestly make a lot of sense. With the banning of Treasure Cruise, I fully expect people to jump back on the Sneak and Show bandwagon as their biggest challenge was beating a deck that stuck a cheap, efficient threat on turn one or two and then protected it and/or interfered with the Sneak and Show gameplan with a bevy of cheap counterspells.

#5 - Dark Confidant (+1.69%) - Oh how Bob has patiently waited in the shadows while Treasure Cruise flaunted it's "no pain" card advantage. He remembers that greatness comes with a cost and now the rest of us are remembering it too as he jumps back to Modern's best form of continual card advantage.

Value Stocks

This weeks value stocks include a few of the last ones...mainly my #1 and #3.

#1 - Stifle - Stifle is still sitting near it's all-time low ($6 for Conspiracy and $11 for Scourge). With the departure of Treasure Cruise in Legacy, expect the older RUG Tempo decks that relied on Wasteland and Stifle to pop back up to keep the combo players in check.

#2 - Genesis Hydra - This little gem is sitting around $1.50-$1.75, but is a key component in an infinite combo in Standard. That alone should set off alarm bells, as Standard is the format with the least number of solutions to any given problem, and going infinite in Standard allows for some very heavily focused deck building.

The fact that this key piece is a rare from a poorly-received set means that he has higher potential than say a Khans rare like Temur Ascendancy. If we see this combo deck take down an SCG Open in the near future, you can expect Genesis Hydra to jump quite a bit (he's already at $4 on SCG, so they are expecting higher demand for him).

#3 - Chord of Calling - I'm going to continue to stick with this one. I first assumed with Pod's banning (and Pod being the only Modern deck that played Chord) that it would lose its home in Modern. Rumor has it that though there are some "podless" Pod decks that simply swap out the Pod for Chord and go heavier on the combo engine instead of the "value cards with a combo potential" of old Pod decks.

Growth Stocks

It's the end of the month, so let's check back in on our sealed product. It's been a while since we last checked, so let's see what kinds of movement has happened in a month's time span.

We see a pretty major drop in Mirrodin Besieged. There's a similar drop in New Phyrexia, however that one seems to have an outlier (of one really lucky eBay bidder); neglecting that specific sale we see a much smaller drop.

As it is, it's still hard to say how good of an investment sealed product is. Looking over it, every box but Dark Ascension is more valuable than their initial retail prices, so from that perspective it's a pretty safe investment, though it's often a pretty big chunk of change to have held up awaiting a modest return.

Week of 12/27/14

Box	Most Recent Completed Auction	Second Most Recent	Third Most Recent	Fourth Most Recent	New Average	Average comparison
Innistrad	$249.95	$168.17	$208.89	$230.00	$214.25	5.16%
Dark Ascension	$99.00	$99.99	$108.00	$95.30	$100.57	-5.89%
Avacyn Restored	$144.00	$129.95	$155.94	$144.95	$143.71	8.94%
Scars of Mirrodin	$138.05	$199.95	$174.95	$199.00	$177.99	0.42%
Mirrodin Besieged	$137.50	$117.50	$149.99	$124.50	$132.37	-19.19%
New Phyrexia	$342.99	$310.00	$232.50	$325.00	$302.62	-14.70%
Zendikar	$519.99	$600.00	$479.99	$499.89	$524.97	5.71%
Worldwake	$674.99	$674.99	$673.99	$698.99	$680.74	-3.31%
Rise of the Eldrazi	$510.00	$509.99	$529.95	$509.99	$514.98	-4.04%

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Zendikar, Mirrodin, Ravnica, Lorwyn, Kamigawa, and Alara

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