| Quiet Speculation

The “We Hate Ari Lax” Bandwagon Keeps Rolling

Posted on November 24, 2014 by Jason Alt

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I was pretty sure I put the "Is Ari Lax a douchebag?" issue to bed with a comprehensive article on the subject.

I was wrong.

Reddit, in all of its inherent mediocrity at Magic, bristles when someone implies they're better at Magic than the average redditor. Ari Lax doesn't imply he's better at Magic than the average redditor. He implies he's better at Magic than EVERY redditor. He did so in a recent "Inside the Deck" interview with Richard Castle for Gathering Magic.

You can watch the video, fast forwarded to the relevant part here

While he didn't come out and say "you're all bad at Magic" he did imply that the way a majority of people who think they're better at Magic than they are use Brainstorm is wrong. He also talked about walking out of a playstesting session with someone who used Brainstorm incorrectly, implying that this would cause him to win games for no reason and therefore the testing session had no merit.

Can we lay off of Ari Lax? It isn't just reddit doing it; I've seen some snarkiness on facebook and twitter since this video went up and it's old. If it were just reddit, I wouldn't care because reddit is famous for being knee-jerk reactionaries. In an article about a year ago written by Brian Kibler, someone in the comments section said something really dumb to the effect of "Well, I don't understand why you're not including X card" and, uncharacteristically, Kibler replied, pithily, "Well, fortunately I DO understand" and reddit formed their characteristic lynch mob to burn Kibler in effigy - that is until Kibler began commenting in the thread. Within a few minutes, Kibler's responses were the number one upvoted comments in the thread and people were lining up to tell him how much they've always respected him.

Maybe Ari Lax should try being handsomer.

Or maybe we should get off of Ari's back. Is Ari arrogant? Yeah, a little bit. Being really good at Magic and having that disposition will do that to you. But everyone has their BS threshold, and just because someone wasting his time in a testing game by playing Brainstorm like a scrub is below Ari's doesn't mean he needs to be pilloried every time he shares a story about someone wasting his time in testing.

The reddit thread was titled "There's [sic] the Reid Duke's [sic] of the world, and then there are the Ari Lax's [sic]". Maybe if we spend a little less time calling someone a "douchenozzle" because their attitude hurt our feewings and more time listening to someone who is better at Magic than we are then we won't keep playing Brainstorm EOT. If you won't listen to a lesson someone is trying to teach you because you don't like them as a person, you don't deserve to get better.

Should We Be Buying Commander Products for Above MSRP?

Posted on November 24, 2014 by Danny Brown

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No. Don't buy Commander products for above MSRP. It may even be wrong to buy them at MSRP.

Last year, Mind Seize was the hot item. I have literally never seen one in the wild, and not for lack of trying, either. Wal-mart, Target, local LGSs...anywhere that sold these products didn't have this one in stock, but had some of the other, less desirable ones.

Commander 2011 gave us all the wrong impression of how these products would be released. Because Heavenly Inferno is selling for ridiculous sums of money, last year, the finance community largely considered sealed Commander decks to be good buys.

But Wizards of the Coast reacted to the Mind Seize shortage by doubling production, essentially printing two copies for every one copy of each of the other decks. Now, you can find a copy of Mind Seize for just about MSRP, despite it being last year's product. All of these decks are available for MSRP or less, with Nature of the Beast coming in at $18.80 at the time of this writing. That's less than two-thirds of the retail price of $30.

So with Forged in Stone selling above MSRP due to Containment Priest, there's no reason to get your copies now. If demand keeps going up and it doesn't seem like supply will meet it, WOTC has demonstrated its willingness to address the situation. Furthermore, Containment Priest is a pretty good sideboard card in some matchups, whereas True-Name Nemesis is a powerhouse that majorly changed the Legacy metagame.

Containment Priest will either go down in price as the hype moves onto the new hotness, or it will go down in price because Wizards of the Coast will buy their own. If you want to purchase any or all of the Commander 2014 decks for personal enjoyment, by all means, do it. If you're confident you can make some money by quickly flipping some cards, take the opportunity. But if you're looking to buy these up to sit on in the hopes of hitting the next Heavenly Inferno—well, then you may want to reconsider.

Insider: Dem Holo Cards – How to Properly Invest in Foils

Posted on November 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by Derek Madlem

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There's been a ton of talk lately about reprints. Between annual Commander decks, Duel Decks twice a year, Modern event decks, and other non-Standard legal products like Conspiracy, we're seeing reprints at a greater clip than ever before.

For a long time we simply had it too good. Reprints were a cornerstone of Core Sets and, outside of that, we had very little to fear. We used the logic that if a card had a setting specific name attached to it, that they could basically never reprint it. Inquisition of Kozilek was safe.

I personally blame Batman

http://youtu.be/c8q_GJ6LqG8

Things have changed, and there is no going back.

You have to believe and know that Wizards' long-term goal is to make Modern a format that is accessible for the foreseeable future. While its prices will always be just slightly more expensive than Standard, in the long run, it's a cheaper format at the same time because the metagame doesn't shift as regularly as Standard.

You can expect a steady parade of reprints in Modern for the foreseeable future. While some of these cards will rebound the same way Knight of the Reliquary has in spite of multiple reprints, there will always be collateral damage like Bridge from Below or Chaos Warp that will take a much more substantial hit due to their niche use.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight of the Reliquary

How Do We Protect Ourselves Longterm?

As my collection has grown over the years, I've delved deeper and deeper into Magic's older formats, filling out playsets for decks that I'll probably never sleeve. But once that's done, where else is there to go?

FOILS!

When you look at the cards that have been hit by multiple reprints, you'll notice a trend: eternal foil staples just don't break.

Sure, you'll get a slight dip in price, those $400 Polluted Deltas from Onslaught have slipped to a meager $360, but 10% is significantly better than the 50% hit the non-foil editions took.

We can pull data from dozens of cards at this point, and a lot of it is going to say the same thing: foil cards just don't feel the hurt that non-foils do when reprints occur.

Divergence

Keep in mind that I'm not a finance or economic major, so when I make up a term... it's made up. That said, I'd like to introduce a term that may or may not exist in the real world and may have a chance of meaning something completely different: price divergence.

What is price divergence? The definition I'm making up is the difference between a regular card and a foil card's price. Traditionally the two will follow a similar trajectory, maintaining a loose price ratio for foil vs non-foil. Eventually that price hits a point where the two numbers start to diverge from one another, breaking that ratio completely.

Let's take a look at a (fairly) recent example: Young Pyromancer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Young Pyromancer

The non-foil version of this card has held in the price range of $2-3 since it's printing. The initial foil price for Pyromancer was in around $10-12. This 4x multiplier held for a long time.

And then Young Pyromancer started making himself famous in Modern, Legacy, and even Vintage. The price diverged from a 4x premium markup to a 16x markup! Looking at the price history, you can see this all occurred around the release of Khans of Tarkir, so it's a safe bet that we have Treasure Cruise to thank for that price jump.

How many people were sitting on a pile of foil Young Pyromancers? I'm guessing not a lot.

Another great example in Magic's recent history is Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

On first printing, a foil Jace was worth a meager 2x the price of a regular--a trade I actually made to complete my playset.

Remember the peak on foil Jace? $800. Once the price divergence started to occur, Jace went up to an 8x multiplier from a mere 2x. Jace has since been diminished thanks to the release of From the Vaults: 20, but the Worldwake foil price is already recovering from it's bottoming out price of $400, currently sitting at $550.

Identifying Targets

So it seems like the advice should be to just grab foil everything and win, right?

Well, maybe not. When you're acquiring things to sell--even if it's at a much later date--you have to identify the buyer. Any retailer will tell you that the most important part of merchandising is properly identifying your customer base and stocking your store accordingly.

The good news is that you have a decent target audience for foil cards long term: eternal players, Commander players, Cube owners, Gollums, and people with inferiority complexes.

If you've ever had the joy of watching or playing paper Vintage, you know that there is a ton of dick measuring going on. While you might be excited just to see a Black Lotus in the wild, you know on a primal level that the guy playing the black bordered one is just a better person and that he paid a lot of money for that distinction. eternal players that have been playing the same deck for a long time take pride in "pimping out" their deck.

Commander players are no different. If you only need to play one copy each of all your favorite cards, why not make them fancy? The same goes for cubes. After all, if you're going to lug around a box of Magic's greatest cards to let strangers draft with them, might as well make them the most expensive versions possible, amirite?

Best Opportunity

The best opportunity to trade into foil versions of cards is during their time in Standard. As long as they're still coming out of packs, the price is less likely to go up and will likely be trending downward. After the initial rush to acquire Cube and Commander pimpage, these cards slowly decline with everything else in a set until rotation where you can expect them to bottom out.

There is one major catch, though--once a card is identified as a tournament staple, all bets are off. Remember Abrupt Decay hovering around $30 for a very long time? Then somewhere in Theros block, people caught on and the price shot through the roof to the $80 we see now.

This obviously leaves you in a precarious position: you need to identify eternal staples early but after the initial hype has worn off, and before the price starts spiking. It's a tough tightrope to walk.

With the release of every set, I make a list of the cards that can hold a premium or make the transition to eternal formats.

Here's the cards from Khans of Tarkir that I've identified as having the potential for divergent pricing. But as we've all seen time and time again, sometimes the price fluctuations in Magic don't make any sense or follow any patterns.

While some of these are obvious, others should be considered with heavy skepticism, like Sorin, Solemn Visitor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorin, Solemn Visitor

My gut tells me that he is not quite Cube worthy or splashy enough for Commander, but he does make Vampires and black/white has been a casual playground since the days of Serra Angel/Sengir Vampire decks.

The other obvious monkey wrench in this list how do we evaluate prerelease foils going forward? Will a foil Narset, Enlightened Master prerelease foil be close in price to the non-dated one? Is From the Vault pricing where you would want to be long term?

Who knows.

TL:DR - Foilss can be a great way to shield yourself from reprint risks while giving you huge opportunities for growth over time and are also a great way to impress the ladies.

Insider: A Multi-format Analysis Based on SCG’s Latest News

Posted on November 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Last week Star City Games revealed two market-moving announcements--one was overly publicized from the proverbial rooftops while the other subtle and unadvertised. One led to a dramatic response from the MTG community while the other had people equally flabbergasted.

Despite their differences in tone, the combination of the two could mean market moving trends in the coming months. I say “could” because I have my doubts.

The first piece of news to hit the wires last week was Star City Games’ recent bump in NM buy prices on Unlimited Power:

Ancestral Recall: $1250.00
Black Lotus: $4500.00 (it was $5000 throughout the week)
Mox Emerald: $800.00
Mox Jet: $900.00
Mox Pearl: $800.00
Mox Ruby: $800.00
Mox Sapphire: $1200.00
Time Walk: $900.00
Timetwister: $500.00

The second piece of news was the announcement for the Star City Games Open circuit structure changes heading into 2015. This announcement essentially states that every Open event will operate like a Grand Prix. There will be a major event that lasts both days with $20k in prizes and many vendors will be on-site to interact with. The vast majority of these events are Standard, but there are a few Legacy and Modern events sprinkled throughout. The formats not headlining the weekend will still be played as 5k events on Sunday, though don’t expect to see any live coverage for them.

As all of this buzz hit social media, many pros and financiers shared their opinions en masse. For the most part, I remained quiet, left to my internal thoughts as I sorted through potential implications.

While I’m not 100% confident in what I’ve come up with, I do feel sufficiently prepared to at least share an initial reaction. Without further adieu, I’ll go through every format and share my most recent thoughts on each in light of this information.

Standard

All of a sudden we have a Standard “Grand Prix” nearly every weekend, and all of them are in the US. The opportunities to become a professional Magic player are going to multiply drastically, and this will definitely drive greater interest in the format. But does this increased interest mean money-making opportunity?

Perhaps not in an obvious way. Almost every card in Standard, across all sets and colors, have seen significant declines in price over the past few months. A card like Sylvan Caryatid, which is a major enabler for multi-colored decks, has done nothing but decline despite the magnitude of play it has seen.

Granted, the card is off its pre-rotation spike, but not by nearly as much.

Even multi-format all-star Thoughtseize has been dropping pretty hard over the past couple weeks. That precious opportunity to buy list copies to Star City Games at $17.50 is now gone, as they have dropped their buy price all the way down to $12.50, still rivaling most sites you can find through Trader Tools.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

I’m not going to show 20 more price curves revealing the same trend because it is unnecessary and belabors the point. Standard is a hot format with a TON of diversity, but card values aren’t mirroring this truth. Perhaps we’ve finally reached a point where the market is fully efficient.

In other words, we now have so many speculators and investors buying strong cards in anticipation for Standard rotation. Maybe they rapidly bought up the hot cards immediately after rotation, taking away any remaining opportunity throughout the remainder of the Standard season.

This could bode poorly for those stuck in Standard positions going forward. The drastic increase in visibility of Standard will hopefully jump start the Standard economy, but I have my doubts.

Everyone who grinds the SCG circuit already has their Standard decks. An increase in premier events will mean those decks can be played more frequently for larger sums of money, but I am not confident that this will translate to any increase in demand. Throw in the efficiency of this Standard market along with the fact that Hasbro is motivated to print as much product as they can sell with any new set and you have a pretty glum outlook on new cards.

At this point, I’m inclined to avoid any new card unless there’s a quick flip opportunity. The only exception may be foil eternal cards like Thoughtseize or Treasure Cruise. But even the foil market is getting “solved” more rapidly than ever before. Proceed with extreme caution.

Modern

The Modern format is in a state of flux. Cards like Treasure Cruise and Young Pyromancer have completely shaken up the metagame. With this shake-up, we’re likely to see some price fluctuations. These fluctuations could lead to profits for savvy investors.

I don’t think opportunities change much at all in light of the recent SCG news. There are a couple 20k Modern Opens sprinkled throughout the Open schedule, but not a meaningful amount. Chances are the Modern metagame shift due to newly printed cards will have a much more profound impact on card prices than would a couple 20k events. This is especially the case for cards finally making a splash in the format more so than cards that have been around for a while.

For example, compare the price charts for Birthing Pod and Chalice of the Void. There were twelve Pods in GP Madrid’s Top 8, all in main decks. There were six Chalices: three in a main deck and three in a sideboard. Yet the resulting price movement on Chalice has been much more positive simply because it is being “re-discovered”.

My final comment on Modern is this: I’m incredibly afraid of buying deeply into any given Modern card out of fear of reprinting.

Wizards has shown us time and again they are willing to reprint almost anything in one product or another. I don’t care about Birthing Pod’s Phyrexian flavor or the fact that it contains Phyrexian mana. It could show up in a Modern Event deck, Modern Masters set, Commander deck, or an array of other such products.

Therefore my latest strategy on Modern has been to focus on foils, which are much sparser. Foil Chalices are especially attractive under $20, for example. And while I don’t expect Chalice to be reprinted again in a new Modern Masters set, you can never be certain.

Legacy

Most comments I’ve read about Legacy’s trajectory after the latest SCG announcements have been negative. People are concerned this is the beginning of the end for the much-beloved eternal format. Without all that online coverage, how will new players be attracted to the format? What’s going to inspire players to trade out of their Standard and Modern cards to pick up Dual Lands at a ratio of 20:1?

First of all, everyone needs to take a step back and relax. There are still going to be Legacy 5k events every single weekend. The vast majority of Standard players from Day 1 will not make Day 2, leaving them to decide between Modern and Legacy. Those who have played Legacy in the past will continue to play Legacy. I don’t think you’re going to see much of a drop-off in Legacy tournament attendance.

We may see fewer players jump into the format after watching live coverage. Then again, now there are a handful of 20k Legacy events to get excited about! It’s almost like adding three new Legacy Grand Prix to the US tournament circuit--a significant increase compared to what we have today.

Have you ever heard of “too much of a good thing”? I think the latest SCG Open structure is likely to burn people out on Standard coverage. Spectators will get more excited than ever before on the weekends when Modern or Legacy are the premier events. I, for one, will be. Instead of knowing I can tune in to watch some Legacy any Sunday afternoon, I know I have to wait for the weekends of the premier events. This will get me thinking about Legacy coverage more than before!

Could less coverage mean more exciting coverage when it comes to Legacy? Could the increase in major Legacy events within the US (while maintaining the same number of overall Legacy events) actually increase player excitement? It’s too early to say either way.

In the meantime, my strategy is simple and echoes the same sentiment Corbin shared in a recent piece: avoid overly trendy Legacy cards and focus on the tried and true staples. Dual Lands are cheaper now than they’ve been in months – take advantage and acquire the copies you’ve been needing. Itching to pick up a Force of Will for your Commander deck? Perhaps now is the time to pull the trigger.

As for any potential sell-off based on panic--I say be patient, wait for opportunities and acquire as needed. I’m not going to move my whole portfolio into Legacy, but I am strategically adding to my Dual Land collection while it remains a buyer’s market.

Should prices drop further on this news, it’ll only mean I can acquire more!

Vintage

Last but not least we have the elephant in the room: Vintage. The SCG circuit changes have nothing to do with Vintage, of course. It’s their recent move on Power prices that could drastically influence this format.

A few months ago I was pushing Power feverishly. Almost every week I was pointing out how much trouble Star City had with keeping these in stock. I predicted buy price increases. They finally happened.

What’s next? I honestly have no clue, but I suspect the market will not support these higher prices. Already I’ve noticed a sudden influx of Power on the market as people attempt to cash out at these newly inflated prices.

If I were you and I had some excess copies, I’d move them now. Then again, if you have a super-long term view (more than a couple years), then maybe you still hold as you always have. After all, it’s not like these will become any less rare in the future, right?

As for Vintage as a format, I don’t believe these Power price changes are related at all. No, there’s not a sudden jump in Vintage demand that I’m aware of. SCG didn’t announce a Vintage 20k event (although it would be amazing to watch!). I believe we are just seeing natural market movements as copies become less and less available over time. Players want Power for their cubes and the like, and while movement is very slow, it has been noticeable. Collectors are also eager to acquire their set of Power simply to have and admire.

I will make one last observation on Vintage – it appears the recent price jumps in non-Power staples has finally ended. As evidence, check out the price chart of Mana Drain, which has definitely shown a flattening trend.

If you’ve been following my advice over the past few months by acquiring Vintage staples like Mana Drain, I’d think about cashing out soon and moving into the next opportunity. We got a nice bump on these, but it may take another year to see more noticeable price appreciation. Let’s move our resources elsewhere.

Wrapping It Up

After writing this column, I’m noticing something rather discouraging: I’m fairly bearish on almost every format. I don’t like new cards in Standard because I fear they are being overprinted and overbought. Modern cards will be solid buys, but only after we see what’s reprinted in the coming months. Legacy cards aren’t too exciting right now as people are uncertain how the recent SCG circuit will impact demand. And Vintage is… well… downright expensive.

So where is my money going? As I mentioned, right now I’m targeting Dual Lands and strategic foils like Chalice of the Void. The key is to focus on older cards so that we can be sure there aren’t excess quantities of them. By looking at foils, I’m also identifying those opportunities which are even harder to find and are more price-immune to reprints.

That’s about all I can recommend with confidence right now. Tread carefully, remain focused, and you’ll avoid the dangerous pitfalls of MTG Speculation.

…

Sigbits

Star City Games is almost completely sold out of Chalice of the Void. These are definitely going to see a price bump soon, so acquire your personal copies now before that happens. Right now SCG’s prices are below TCG Low – this is a trend that never lasts.
Here’s another interesting pickup idea: foil Archangel of Thune. She’s made a few appearances in GP Madrid’s Top 8. While never a 4-of, the foils see demand from both casual players and Modern players alike. Reprints won’t damage the price of original foil printings nearly as badly, either. SCG currently only has two copies in stock at $34.99.
Foil Shock Lands are also not a bad place to park some money, but it’s the original foil versions that have shown the most price resilience. Foil Dissension Hallowed Fountain, for example, are $119.99 on SCG. They currently have only SP and MP copies in stock, and not many for that matter. I suspect there will come a time when these go even higher no matter what reprints we see.

Jeskai Ascendancy on top again

Posted on November 24, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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It's been talked about time and again, largely in relation to Modern and a potential banning. And it's not even a Delve card.

Yes, I'm talking about Jeskai Ascendancy. Also known as the central card in the combo deck that is once again sitting on top.

This time it's Standard, and the deck is once again dominant, this time winning the latest Star City Games Open over the weekend.

Again we see an evolution of the deck, with this build looking a lot like an odd mix of the more general Jeskai deck running around, and throwing the combo in as well. It seems the shell is just that strong, and it can fit into a lot of different builds.

So what are your thoughts on this latest look? Is this poised to become the new face of Standard?

A Great Resource for Legacy Players: The Turn-One Spotter’s Guide

Posted on November 21, 2014 by Danny Brown

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Reddit user ubernostrum posted a complilation of information last week. Entitled "Legacy: a turn-one spotter's guide," this post goes over each and every land and turn-one play you may see in Legacy. Being able to figure out what your opponent is playing quickly and accurately is a great way to give yourself an edge in a match, and this post does a great job of laying out the possibilities of the format.

Plains

The three most common decks in Legacy which play basic Plains are Death and Taxes, Maverick and Miracles. Miracles is less likely to lead on Plains if it can avoid it, as turn one Plains does not permit turn two Counterbalance unless followed by a Mystic Gate, but can be a sign of Swords to Plowshares lurking.

Plains into Mother of Runes tells us we're facing either Death and Taxes (most likely by far) or Maverick. Plains into Aether Vial should be taken as absolute confirmation of Death and Taxes. Plains into Sensei's Divining Top is almost certain to be Miracles, but there is a fringe chance it could be a white Stax, Metalworker or Stompy deck.

That's just the possibilities for a turn-one Plains and potentially a play off of it, but the post goes over the possibilities for all the basic lands, dual lands, fetch lands, and more.

Small edges can equal big results, so take a moment to read over this post and give it the praise it deserves. For Legacy players, this is a public service of the highest magnitude.

Insider: MTG Stock Watch (Week of 11/16/14)

Posted on November 21, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers! It's time for another MTG stock watch report.

Penny Stocks

#1 Forked Bolt (+299%) - No big suprise on this one. With a huge uptick in blue-red strategies in both Modern and Legacy, this one-mana "kill two creatures" spell has found itself in a lot of maindecks (not to mention additional sideboard copies).

I attended GP NJ and this was the card the dealers jacked up the most--I saw one place selling them for $10 each and many others in the $6-$8 range.

Decks like U/R Delver (both Modern and Legacy variants) want a maximum number of one-mana spells to feed their Treasure Cruises, so in this instance Forked Bolt is much better than, say Fire // Ice, despite its reduced utility and sorcery speed.

#2 Hero of Ioras (+41.2%) - This guy has hit Standard pretty hard out of the UWr Heroic deck (with Jeskai Ascendancy to fuel large heroic creatures very quickly). This deck, piloted by none other than Tom Ross at SCG Columbus, took 3rd place and has been doing a lot of work on MODO.

The card came from Born of the Gods, which altogether was a pretty weak set, with no real chase cards outside of Courser of Kruphix. That means players don't want to crack packs of it, so the rares have a bit of a higher ceiling if they break out.

#3 Moggcatcher (+40.4%) - This card showed up on camera at the SCG Columbus Legacy Open in a "Workshop-like" Legacy deck that uses Trinisphere, Chalice of the Void and Blood Moon to stop opponents from being able to play Magic. He then tutors up (past any of those prison cards) threats like Siege-Gang Commander, Krenko, Mob Boss, and Tuktuk Scrapper (to deal with those pesky Batterskulls).

#4 Savage Beating (+24%) - I mentioned previously how Narset looked like she would be the next Nekrusar (i.e. the latest EDH general to cause a spike on older cards that fit a specific deck archetype for that commander) and I wasn't disappointed, though we aren't seeing nearly the size spikes we did with Nekrusar. Savage Beating allows you to untap your Narset or allow her to do double damage (if she's equipped with a sword or enchantment).

#5 Pendelhaven (Legends) (+18.3%) - This isn't too surprising as outside of a Time Spiral foil copy or FNM promo, the most "pimp" version is the original Legends one. Tom Ross has been tearing up Legacy opens and GPs with Legacy Infect. Pendelhaven is one of the cards that gives his deck some reach by not forcing him to overextend, but instead peck away at his opponents.

Next up we have our usual Blue Chip stocks.

Blue Chip Stocks

#1 Force of Will (+2.65%) - Good ol' Force of Will, the glue that holds Legacy together, finally has a bit of upward movement. While blue has always been the most powerful color in Legacy, Force of Will has been on the decline for a while. Most likely due to the price over-correction back in March/April, but also because many decks were choosing to cut a copy as the need to counter something on turn one had fallen out of favor for awhile.

Now with Treasure Cruise re-aligning the format to tempo decks, Force comes back in (ahem) force. After all, the biggest downside to FoW has always been the inherent card disadvantage in a format where every card counts--now players have a way to refill their hand and regain control.

#2 Tarmogoyf (-2.29%) - This one's a bit of a surprise as he's still the most dominant two-drop in MTG, but note that with the advent of Treasure Cruise decks his power/toughness is greatly reduced when the opponent not only has a way to shrink their graveyard, but also a good reason to do so anyway.

He is also a nonbo with one's own Treasure Cruises and when given the option between casting a turn three or four Tarmogoyf or Treasure Cruise, many players have decided they'd rather just have more cards than a single creature.

#3 Scrubland (-2.28%) - With the falling out of Esper Stoneblade in favor of UWR Stoneblade, this dual continues to drop. It's getting pretty close to it's pre-spike price which might indicate that it will likely flatten out as it's unlikely to be worth less than it used to be. When and if it hits this price I am a firm believer in picking them up, as black is one of the more powerful colors and white still casts Stoneforge Mystic and Swords to Plowshares.

#4 Tropical Island (-1.89%) - This is paired with Tarmogoyf's decline, as the Legacy deck that was creating/holding demand for Trops was RUG and since both RUG's threats (Tarmogoyf and Nimble Mongoose) rely on a fullish graveyard, that style of deck discourages playing Treasure Cruise. At the least it reduces your threats and makes them a lot less impressive--and as I said before, everyone seems to be on the Treasure Cruise.

#5 Dark Confidant (-1.85%) - Strangely enough, I think this card is also taking a bit of a hit thanks to Treasure Cruise (it really does get tiresome typing that out), but frankly he plays best in decks with low CMC cards and despite the fact that Cruise usually costs 1-2 mana to cast...when revealed off a Bob it domes you for 8. The rise of Forked Bolt (via U/R Delver's recent dominance) also doesn't fare well for one-toughness creatures in general.

Value Stocks

Our current value stocks are Khans fetchlands. Despite the fact that they continue to trend downward (ever so slowly) I feel like they are getting pretty close to their low points. They are highly liquid and Eternal demand will always make them desirable to most players. Their biggest downside is that they continue to enter the market as more and more Khans packs are cracked.

If you're a high roller than my suggestion would be to focus on the foil versions, which despite the fact that they too are continuing to enter the market, are doing so at a much lower rate compared to the demand. We are still months away from the format switch to drafting non-Khans packs so there's no huge rush to pick them up, but at their current prices you won't lose much between now and the ultimate low point.

(Please ignore the actual price numbers listed on the foil as apparently hiding the average regular price doesn't update that price to be just foil copies.)

It's interesting to note that had you pre-ordered your foil Windswept Heaths, you'd be down only about 3% of your initial investment (which you can't say about almost any other non-foil Khans cards).

Growth Stocks

Last, but certainly not least, we have our growth stocks (sealed product). Our biggest loser this week was Scars of Mirrodin, taking a pretty massive hit of -14.52%. This may be due to the fact that Mox Opal (and Affinity in general) is starting to see less play in Modern, replaced as the top tier budget deck by U/R Delver (with the exception of the mana base, the entire deck is commons/uncommons).

We also see New Phyrexia take a bit of a dip (-5.83%) as well as Dark Ascension (-4.13%), though the latter isn't that surprising as its most valuable card is Mikaeus, the Unhallowed).

Week of 11/16/14

Box	Most Recent Completed Auction	Second Most Recent	Third Most Recent	Fourth Most Recent	New Average	Average comparison
Innistrad	$224.95	$209.00	$175.01	$202.50	$202.87	3.94%
Dark Ascension	$108.34	$74.99	$127.35	$80.00	$97.67	-4.13%
Avacyn Restored	$129.99	$137.50	$138.49	$139.95	$136.48	3.36%
Scars of Mirrodin	$145.83	$152.50	$172.50	$177.53	$162.09	-14.52%
Mirrodin Besieged	$167.00	$168.45	$169.50	$142.75	$161.93	-0.08%
New Phyrexia	$250.00	$255.01	$274.99	$242.53	$255.63	-5.83%
Zendikar	$420.00	$490.00	$529.99	$475.00	$478.75	4.18%
Worldwake	$660.00	$647.00	$750.00	$749.99	$701.75	3.92%
Rise of the Eldrazi	$467.00	$510.03	$570.00	$509.99	$514.26	-0.53%

GP NJ:

For those who don't know, I did attend GP NJ, though I sadly only met a few fellow QSers (apparently playing one of the slowest decks in Legacy just means you have no time between rounds to do things). I did enjoy meeting those I got to talk to and I do wish I'd been able to do Mr. Chilcott's dinner/draft on Saturday evening (please let me know how it went in the comments for those that did attend).

However, given my final record was 3-2-2 (though it really was 3-1-3) there's no need to delve into my games at all. One funny event that did occur was that in one game against my round 1 opponent I had a Sensei's Divining Top in play...and the remaining three on top of my library--which is not where you want to be with U/W Miracles.

I will also say that I sold a bunch of random cards I'd accrued picking up collections/bulk this year, which covered all of my trip costs and still netted me $150 dollars (and I flew up there and rented a car). So the best advice I can give everyone is that it's definitely worth it to pick through your "bulk" commons and uncommons. And for those interested, my biggest surprise findings were;

1. Pathrazer of Ulamog buylists for $0.75

2. Necropede buylists for $0.1

3. Ichorclaw Myr buylists for $0.25

If you played at all during those sets you probably have quite a few of those guys lying around not making you money...

Insider: The Real Costs of Entering Modern – Breaking Down Decks By Buy and Sell Points

Posted on November 21, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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I previously wrote about the real costs of entering Standard, and today I'm going to do a similar thing with Modern. However, I'm going to go a little bit more in depth today, giving some tips on using Trader Tools to quickly and accurately track your deck contents, prices, and spread.

The Process

First, let's take a look at MTG Goldfish's Modern metagame page.

Here we can see the nine most played Modern decks on MTGO. The price listings are for online prices, and we're going to be using Trader Tools anyway, so ignore those for now. Being that I'm a sucker for flying nacatls and unrestricted Ancestral Recalls, let's start with U/R Delver today.

U/R Delver

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets

4 Monastery Swiftspear

4 Young Pyromancer

2 Snapcaster Mage

Spells

4 Treasure Cruise

4 Gitaxian Probe

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Serum Visions

1 Forked Bolt

2 Vapor Snag

2 Spell Snare

1 Spell Pierce

3 Remand

2 Electrolyze

1 Pillar of Flame

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Polluted Delta

1 Bloodstained Mire

1 Wooded Foothills

4 Steam Vents

2 Island

2 Mountain

This will be our representative decklist for the archetype (we won't worry about a sideboard for now). It plays a very high number of fetch lands, and if you're looking to play the deck on a budget, that may be something you can shave. However, each fetch land essentially counts as two mana for Treasure Cruise, so if you're looking for every advantage, you'll want to run as many as you can afford.

To figure out the real cost of this deck, go to Trader Tools at www.mtg.gg. You'll be greeted with this page:

Go ahead and click the "Add New List" button, which will take you here:

Fill in the information you want, then click "Create List." Your new list is now active.

Although you can import spreadsheets into Trader Tools, I find it pretty quick to search for each card in a deck individually. When it comes up, just put the number in the box next to the card, then click somewhere else on the screen to see the box turn a very satisfying shade of green.

Do this for every card, and then you can click the name of the list at the top of the page. This will take you to the image view, but I prefer the spreadsheet view, which you can tab over to on the top of the page. Scroll down to the bottom and you will see the buylist price of the entire list (in green) compared with the TCGplayer mid price (in red).

So in order to play U/R Delver in Modern, you would need to shell out $514.90 on TCGplayer. However, because your cards have a sell value of $351.79, your virtual cost (assuming you are willing to pull the trigger on selling your deck) is only $163.11.

Not bad to to be able to play a non-budget version of the best deck in the format! If you'd like to see the public Trader Tools list I created, you can visit it here.

Card Devaluation

With the Standard version of this article, we had to account for the dip in card value we often see in Standard cards. Although there are a few Standard-legal cards in this list, for the most part, Modern doesn't have the problem of cards losing tons of value within a year. Although your buylist price will likely be lower during the summer doldrums, in general you can expect your cards to maintain the same basic value.

We could try to account for the drop in price expected for the Khans of Tarkir fetch lands, but the fact is that they won't likely move much at rotation, just like the shock lands didn't. Frankly, I'm not worried about it. I wouldn't even be surprised to see this decklist buylisting next year for more than it is currently. Especially if Treasure Cruise isn't banned.

The Other Decks

Scapeshift's list can be found here. Prices are:

Melira Pod's (although with the recent trend of cutting Melira herself, this may be a misnomer) list can be found here. Prices are:

Bogles's list can be found here. Prices are:

Affinity's list can be found here. Prices are:

Splinter Twin's list can be found here. Prices are:

Burn's list can be found here. Prices are:

The Takeaway

Modern has been overrun with delve cards, specifically Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time. These make fetch lands even more important than they already were, and they were already pretty damn important. If you want to play Modern, make sure you have your fetch lands.
Modern decks require a good amount of money to buy straight up, but their buylist prices are so much better than Standard decks that they only end up costing $100 to $300 once you've sold your cards back (assuming that's your plan, of course).
Splinter Twin is now the most expensive deck in the format, kind of by a lot. The funny thing is that this was once a relatively budget-friendly deck. Don't be surprised if your budget deck one day becomes a non-budget deck.
If U/R Delver really is the best deck in the format, it's due for a price increase. The deck is made up of a lot of commons and uncommons, however, so don't be surprised to see cards like Young Pyromancer go higher than they otherwise might.
Burn is really a pretty affordable deck if you're looking to get into the format on the cheap. You still need those fetch lands, though!
Modern is a diverse format. Even though it's being dominated by a couple blue cards right now, several of the top archetypes play neither. You don't have to play Treasure Cruise or Dig Through Time—but seriously, why wouldn't you?

Headin’ On Down To South Park

Posted on November 21, 2014November 21, 2014 by Jason Alt

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WE WERE ON TV!

I mean, not US, specifically. Well, Darwin Kastle was. And Tomi Walamies.

Where was this, you ask? This was last night's episode of South Park. Now, not everyone has cable, because cable is pretty terrible EV and I can see not having it. I've cut the cable myself. However, this is an age of technology, and South Park is available to watch online if you know where to look. Are you interested in watching the episode?

How about now?

I won't give the whole episode away in pictures now if you didn't get a chance to see it and want to. If you're keen to, you can watch the episode at this link.

So what are people saying about the episode?

I ventured over to reddit because I apparently never learn, and in their typical "worst people on the planet" fashion, they picked it all apart. What format are they playing? Is it EDH? It can't be EDH, at one point Kenny had 2 Elvish Mystics. Why did they use some fake cards and some real ones? Why is the graveyard upside down?

Guys.

You're missing the point.

The point is that a show like South Park which is famous for getting its episodes out in under a week so that it can be super topical mentioned our card game without mentioning cheaters, buttcracks or virginity. We got off light, you guys. Let's call this one a win.

Finally, a Tournament With Scaling Prizes

Posted on November 20, 2014November 19, 2014 by Danny Brown

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One of the biggest complaints I read regarding the Grand Prix system is that the prizes are fixed regardless of attendance. Winning a 2,000-person event results in the same prize as winning a 4,500-person event, despite the vastly increased revenue of the tournament organizer. In a weird way, this makes particularly huge GPs worse value than relatively small ones. As GP entry fees have increased in the last year, prizes have not, and it leaves many players feeling salty.

That's why it was so refreshing to click the link in this tweet:

I know nothing about this tournament organizer other than what is on the site, but I am intrigued as can be by the tournament structure. First, and most important, is that prizes scale. This means a longer, more grueling tournament will be more financially rewarding for those who finish high in the standings.

Second, in true Vegas style, this tournament allows for multiple rebuys. There are two ways to qualify for day two: enter a four-round, single-elimination pod and win four matches or enter multiple pods throughout the day and win a total of six matches. If you want to grind your way into day two, it should be pretty easy. And the best part is that you can play your format of choice: pods will be available in Sealed, Standard, Modern, and Legacy.

A major difference between this event and most competitive Magic events is the round-clock policy:

If time runs out while a game is still underway, the game goes into extra turns. After the current turn, only five more turns will be played. After the last turn, if neither player has won, the player with the highest life total wins. If life totals are tied, or the third game hasn’t yet started, then play continues until one player’s life is higher, and then that player immediately wins.

What I like about this is that unintentional draws are the worst and it's pretty cool that this tournament will avoid them. What I don't like is that life totals are not the complete story when it comes to who is winning a game, and it is all but guaranteed there will be control decks that are clearly ahead but lose the match when time is called. Still, it will be interesting to see how players react and adjust to this policy.

I truly don't know if this tournament will be any good, but I am thrilled to see some of these advancements in competitive Magic tournament formats. I, for one, hope that this is a success, because scaling prizes and the ability to rebuy into a failed tournament are great perks for folks who travel long distances to play in these events. I'll be keeping a close eye on CardMageddon and will keep you updated with what I observe.

Insider: GP Madrid – Dissecting Khans’ Impact on Modern

Posted on November 20, 2014January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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This past weekend hosted one of the largest Magic tournaments of all time and the largest Legacy event ever. Over four thousand competitors gathered in New Jersey to play Legacy, the whole time planning to play or beat Treasure Cruise.

Whatever your opinion of Treasure Cruise and its power level, based on attendance alone, no argument can be made that to say that it’s bad for the health of the format. There are an enormous number of playable decks in Legacy right now and while some are better choices than others, the metagame is still pretty healthy.

Looking over the results sheds some light on the true situation of the format as well. Even with all of the Treasure Cruise hype, only five of the Top 16 decks utilized the card as a three- or four-of component of their deck. Two more players had one copy to support their strategy. Another aspect to consider is that three players chose to play Dig Through Time in place of Treasure Cruise.

Moving forward I think there certainly will be more decks playing these two Standard cards, but it will be interesting to see if they will stay legal in the format or if Wizards will remove them from the card pool.

The most interesting thing for me this weekend didn’t have anything to do with the gigantic Grand Prix in New Jersey though. Much of my interest was peaked by the other Grand Prix happening across the pond, so to speak, over in Madrid, Spain. Over the past few weeks I’ve spent a lot of time working with Modern decks through tournament preparation as well as deck building, so this event held more interest for me.

GP Madrid had the following Top 16 metagame break down. The complete Top 8 decks can be found here and the Top 16 lists here.

4 Melira Pod
2 Twin
3 Delver (U/R, Jeskai, and Temur)
2 Scapeshift
2 Abzan Midrange
1 Blue Moon
1 Through the Breach
1 Martyr Proc

Looking at just the deck names, not much seems to have changed in the metagame. Certainly we have the resurgence of Delver of Secrets-based decks due to Treasure Cruise, but other than that, nothing much sticks out as out of the ordinary.

Taking a closer inspection at the decks themselves reveals some startling new tech. Dissecting the decks from this event, we see that only two of the Top 16 decks did not play any Khans cards. The other 14 decks all had cards from Khans of Tarkir! I don’t think there has ever been a set that has been printed that affected the Modern metagame this much.

The first card I want to talk about is the one that has me the most excited.

[cardimage cardname='Siege Rhino']

Four of the Top 8 and an additional two more decks in the Top 16 used Siege Rhino to stomp their way to victory. All four Melira Pod decks in the Top 16 played one or two copies the card while the two Abzan Midrange decks each played three or four copies of the Standard powerhouse.

When I saw these inclusions I was stunned. Not only are players playing Siege Rhino in Modern but they are having success with it across multiple decks!

The insurgence of Siege Rhino into the metagame is in part due to the burn-heavy nature of the format, thanks to multiple different versions of Burn decks as well as Delver. When you put all the metagame pieces together, the Rhino charging into the metagame should not surprise anyone.

I do question whether we should be playing Siege Rhino over Obstinate Baloth, but each has pros and cons. Rhino seems a bit more well positioned than Baloth for the moment.

Let’s take a look at what these decks look like that utilized this new card.