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Insider: Khans Standard Part 2

Posted on September 25, 2014January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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This weekend marks the start of a new Standard season and I couldn’t be more excited to start playing. There are a ton of decks that I want to play and others that I am still developing.

The main thing that most players are missing right now is that Rabble Red is the deck to beat. I’ve talked about the upcoming format with a lot of local players and every conversation starts with me saying how good red is and them asking if it’s really going to be a deck because it lost so many cards in rotation. The short answer is that yes it is still a deck and quite a powerful one also.

Sure the deck lost some cards that rotated out but there were cards waiting to fill in those holes. The deck seems not to have lost a beat and if you’re not careful, the beat you’ll be hearing is the footsteps of your opponent walking away with your match slip. The deck is real and you need to take is seriously. Take a look at the list I’ve been using as a reference.

Rabble Red

Creatures

4 Akroan Crusader

2 Arena Athlete

4 Firedrinker Satyr

3 Foundry Street Denizen

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

4 War-Name Aspirant

3 Mogis's Warhound

Spells

4 Dragon Mantle

1 Coordinated Assault

2 Lightning Strike

4 Stoke the Flames

4 Titan's Strength

1 Hall of Triumph

Lands

20 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Jeering Instigator

3 Eidolon of the Great Revel

1 Coordinated Assault

4 Magma Spray

4 Searing Blood

1 Peak Eruption

Todd Anderson posted this list over on Star City last week and although it might not be the most tuned list, it’s definitely on the right track. This version is fast and consistent. It also punished any misstep from the opponent and it has all the tools to beat every deck.

The main aspect about this deck that you need to focus on is that it has multiple ways to break through any creature blockers you can muster. Between the pump spells, burn, and bestow creatures, the blockers you cast will rarely survive to block a second time.

This deck is the real deal and I think it’s the deck to beat at the beginning of this format. Come prepared to battle against this deck, or you won’t survive the day.

One way that you can fight against Rabble Red is with Sorin, Solemn Visitor. His +1 ability really punishes any type of red deck and allows you to profitably race them. Giving your whole team lifelink is not something that Wizards prints all the time. This is especially potent because all of your creatures also get the +1/+0 bonus.

New Sorin is much better than initial impressions have suggested and I think he will be an important card in the new format. Because there are so many great ground creatures like Courser of Kruphix and Polukranos, World Eater, flying has become a great ability. The fact that Sorin churns out 2/2 flyers is much better once you compare the other threats players are likely to be casting against you.

Apparently other Magic players agree with me also because this card has doubled in price this week. The Mardu deck I’ve been working on uses our friendly neighborhood vampire as a key piece of its strategy. Here’s where I’m at in development so far.

Mardu

Creatures

4 Bloodsoaked Champion

4 Brain Maggot

3 Tymaret, the Murder King

2 Spiteful Returned

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

3 Herald of Torment

4 Butcher of the Horde

Spells

3 Lightning Strike

4 Stoke the Flames

3 Sorin, Solemn Visitor

3 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lands

4 Nomad Outpost

4 Bloodstained Mire

4 Caves of Koilos

2 Battlefield Forge

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

3 Swamp

3 Mountain

2 Plains

Sideboard

3 Hero's Downfall

4 Drown in Sorrow

2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

3 Thoughtseize

3 Deicide

The baseline for this deck is that Butcher of the Horde is too powerful not to see play. When I see a 5/4 flyer for four mana, I eagerly read on to see what the drawback will be. We all know by this point that Butcher has none.

I’m slowly getting used to the fact that the only downside to this card is the casting cost. I’ve seen many versions of decks trying to play Butcher but they have not tried to build around his strengths. Most of the initial lists have few creatures which does not synergize well with the sacrifice ability.

The lists that do have creatures have focused on playing as many one-drops as possible to make the deck hyper aggressive. These hyper aggressive versions have no way to break through all the ground creatures and are forced to sit back much of the time while the opponent builds their board state. Red aggro has the tools to push through on the ground but black does not.

In addition to the plethora of amazing ground creatures, Drown in Sorrow and Anger of the Gods will be around to destroy your chances as well. This version is an attempt to push through to the next level and create a deck that will flourish in the new metagame.

One key component to this Butcher of the Horde deck is Tymaret, the Murder King. This legendary creature saw virtually no play over the past year, but don’t let that fool you. Tymaret is a strong tool that has been waiting in the bulk box for players to use patiently since Theros was released. You can sacrifice him to Butcher and bring him back later or you can start sacking your team to burn out your opponent. Either way, Tymaret is one of the cards that should be more highly valued in the new format. He’s really cheap right now so I would pick up at least a set as an extremely safe investment.

Herald of Torment is a key piece of this deck's puzzle as well. Not only is it a great creature on its own, but bestowing it onto one of your creatures, Goblin Rabblemaster perhaps, creates a huge advantage for you as well.

The goal of this deck is to be strong at each stage of the game. You can come out of the gate quickly and overwhelm your opponent but you also have plans for a longer game in multiple ways. The format seems to be filling up with midrange decks and this deck fights well in that type of format. The final decklist may change from what I have posted here today, but this is a great start. A Mardu deck like this is going to be a solid choice but it will need to adapt to the metagame.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote about some sweet new Standard decks. I’ve still been working on improving them, and here are the updates I am currently working with.

Mono-Green Devotion

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

4 Sylvan Caryatid

3 Rattleclaw Mystic

4 Courser of Kruphix

3 Polukranos, World Eater

3 Genesis Hydra

2 Hooded Hydra

1 Phyrexian Revoker

1 Reclamation Sage

1 Nylea's Disciple

1 Nylea, God of the Hunt

1 Arbor Colossus

1 Soul of Zendikar

1 Hornet Queen

Spells

3 Nissa, Worldwaker

4 Chord of Calling

Lands

4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

3 Darksteel Citadel

16 Forest

Sideboard

1 Reclamation Sage

1 Phyrexian Revoker

1 Hornet Nest

1 Netcaster Spider

1 Eidolon of Blossoms

2 Mistcutter Hydra

3 Nylea's Disciple

3 Plummet

2 Setessan Tactics

Rattleclaw Mystic is one of the new cards that made its way into the deck. Some other players are utilizing Voyaging Satyr in this spot, but I think Rattleclaw does a better job fighting from behind than the Theros satyr. Both are comparable, but I think Rattleclaw has the edge because of the giant mana advantage he can provide on his own. Voyaging Satyr relies not only on Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, but also having a lot of devotion to do broken things. Rattleclaw does his thing without any other cards to rely on.

The other card that made its way into the deck is Hooded Hydra. I’m not certain that two copies is the correct number for this creature but after playing against him at the prerelease and testing him out a bit, I believe he belongs in this deck. Not only can he help throw your opponent off by allowing you to have multiple morph creatures in your deck, but he helps improve the deck no matter what turn it is. The versatility of this guy is extremely good and I look forward to casting him a lot.

This deck is solid and consistent. I expect it to be a major player in the upcoming format. If you are testing for an event, make sure to include this in your gauntlet.

Sultai Dredge

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

3 Sylvan Caryatid

4 Satyr Wayfinder

4 Nyx Weaver

1 Pharika, God of Affliction

2 Herald of Torment

3 Nighthowler

3 Nemesis of Mortals

4 Sidisi, Brood Tyrant

Spells

4 Commune with the Gods

2 Sultai Ascendancy

4 Murderous Cut

Lands

4 Opulent Palace

4 Llanowar Wastes

4 Polluted Delta

2 Yavimaya Coast

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

4 Forest

2 Swamp

1 Island

There are many takes on this deck. This version focuses on filling the graveyard in order to make lots of zombies with Sidisi, Brood Tyrant as well as create giant monsters with Nighthowler. Other versions focus on reanimating Ashen Rider. Both versions are solid but I prefer this one because it is more resilient to hyper aggro decks like Rabble Red.

Speaking of Ashen Rider though, you can still get this guy for under $2, which doesn’t seem like it will last long. The foils are up to $10 and due to their minor Legacy play, I’d expect those prices to continue to trend upward as well. I stocked up on Ashen Rider and you should too.

With lots of players working on graveyard decks, it’s necessary to know what cards you can run into that will counter your strategy. Luckily, most of the great ones rotated out with Return to Ravnica block. Here’s the list I came up with that may affect you in Standard.

Graveyard Hate

The primary offender on this list is Anafenza, the Foremost. This is a great card on its own and should see play. You are more likely to run into this card than any other on the list. Regardless of the disabling graveyard strategies, the three mana for a 4/4 and the +1/+1 counter to another creature make this a solid card. The fact that is disrupts graveyard decks is an added bonus.

The rest of the cards on the list should only see play if graveyard strategies like this one start to dominate the format. As long as you have some removal spells, there is not much you have to worry about in terms of disruption.

These are just some of the decks you are likely to play against in the new format. Over the next couple of weeks, we will be looking at some more. I can’t wait to see how the format develops and what new decks arise.

Until Next Time,

Get ready to Unleash the Khans Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Early Khans Movements and Bets

Posted on September 25, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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The set is not even out yet, and yet already people are going crazy.

Really? Sorin needs to be $25 and other stuff needs to climb as well? Are we that impatient?

The EV on a box of Khans of Tarkir isn’t available right now, but let’s compare to some recent sets. Return to Ravnica has a box EV of $95, while Theros has an EV of $113. RTR has rotated of course and isn’t a great comparison, but Theros is. Seven cards in the set fetch more than $10 today, and only one is above $20. Khans, on the other hand, has nine and three, respectively.

I know no one is really going to make the argument that Khans isn’t overpriced right now, in the long term at least. We all know better than that. The real question, though, is how do we handle the next few weeks?

Sorin

First, let’s talk Sorin. By almost every account, he’s not a great card. It’s worse than the first Sorin, which was a role-player. More relevantly, he’s worse than Xenagos at the same cost. But he costs $25 today, more than Xenagos and basically the same amount as Sarkhan, who most most people agree will see Standard play.

So what do we make of this?

I still believe this is just hype, and the newness of everything. Even if White-Black becomes a real deck, and that is an if, and it wants Sorin, then we’ll talk. But we see that even if that is the case, then historically Sorin belongs around $15, not $25. I also want to note that buylists right now aren’t above $10, so you actually could not have profited on the card at this point unless you’re looking at another outlet.

Again, none of that is groundbreaking information. But it is important to establish a baseline before we get into the details of the next few weeks, when a $20+ price could very well hold.

What’s Old Is New

We’ve seen this all play out before. Hype goes this way and that way in the first week or two, then the top players all get really quiet about their testing as the prepare for the Pro Tour. The Pro Tour hits and prices on a few breakout cards go crazy. Everything else is forgotten, and within another two weeks the long, downward slide has begun.

This means that being proactive in these first few weeks of a new Standard is more important than anything else. I wouldn’t advocate buying in cash, but if you think there are any breakout targets in the set, trading into them now could pay off in a big way at the Pro Tour. And if it misses, as long as you’re vigilant and proactive enough to offload it immediately, you can avoid a lot of risk.

Of course, all of this money is better put in rotating cards that are Eternal-playable, but while that’s my preferred course of action it’s not the only one. There’s nothing wrong with playing the Standard market so long as you are aware of the higher risk it carries.

All About the Pro Tour

But the argument goes the other way too; there’s more reward in playing the Standard market, and I want to touch on it this week for those of you looking to play the short-term game.

Remember, the biggest spikes always come from the Pro Tour, and we know that buying your copies on the Saturday of the event is a recipe for having orders canceled. So instead I suggest you spend the next week and a half getting into those cards with some solid upside and breakout potential.

That doesn’t mean Sarkhan and Sorin, though those could certainly push past $30 for a bit with heavy play. But paying $20+ to make $10 doesn’t seem like the best play. If you’re going to play the Standard lottery, at least play it right. We want to find the cards worth a few bucks that could spike to $10 at the event, allowing us to double up our money while putting in less risk. They’re also conveniently easier to trade for and build a position in without dropping cash.

How do we develop targets for this list? Basically, the best way to build a portfolio of possibilities is to look at the power level. Some of the cards in this set are powerful and yet don’t clearly fit into an archetype, leaving them flying under the radar. That is, unless someone at the Pro Tour puts it onto the radar, at which point it would go nuts. That’s what we’re looking for.

The Cards

Wingmate Roc

Unfortunately already climbing by the time this article publishes, but $20 is where this ends up with a good weekend at the Pro Tour. And since it’s arguably better than Prognostic Sphinx at the five-drop spot, it’s a possibility. I’m not going deep into this card, but it’s my job to lay out the possibilities, and as far as the mythics go I see this one as one of the most likely to spike.

Savage Knuckleblade

I wish the buy-in was a little lower than $5, but the power level on this card is certainly high enough that it could feature in a solid tempo-based deck. Would be an easy double-up to $10.

Butcher of the Horde

Fits the same role. Again, I’m not hugely confident in a Mardu aggro deck popping out despite some of the cool synergies with the Butcher, but I have to imagine if such a deck exists this guy would be a huge player and would move to $10.

See the Unwritten

Attractive as an option simply because it’s a mythic, and because it’s an absurdly powerful effect. I don’t know if the targets even exist to make something like this a good idea, but if such a deck pops up it’s definitely a four-of, and at $4 there’s huge upside.

Empty the Pits

Now here is a target I actually like. The more people see this in action, the more they realize that it’s an actual game-ending effect at instant speed. Are you tell me that in a land of fetchlands, Caryatids, Coursers, Sphinxes and taplands—which all make for a very slow format—people can’t get ten cards into their graveyards and tap eight mana for instant-speed 14 power?

That’s child’s play for a control deck, and this is a finisher not to be dismissed. Of course it won’t be more than a two-of, but imagine if this makes ten zombies on camera at the Pro Tour. It’s instantly $10, up from $3 now. Lot of upside here.

Sagu Mauler

Some people point to this as the answer to Elspeth, rather than Scuttling Doom Engine. I’m not convinced that either will actually make an impact, but at $1.50 there’s also a lot of upside here.

Pearl Lake Ancient

I looked at this card and was unimpressed initially. And I still think it’s worse than Empty the Pits as a Control finisher. But this article from the mothership more or less implied this was played in their competitive matches of future Standard. As a sub-$2 mythic, again, it’s hard to go wrong since the upside is so much more enticing than the downside.

Eyes to the Future

This is a first-look analysis of our new Standard environment, and the next week will give us more information to play with before we hit the Pro Tour, which will of course define the format for the months to come. I’ll be picking up some of these cards I listed when I can, but I don’t plan on going deep on any of them at this time.

That said, while I’ll be taking a more conservative route and looking at Theros cards or rotated cards, if you feel like gambling this month these may be some of your best options to do so.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Khans of Tarkir Beta 7

Posted on September 25, 2014September 25, 2014 by Jason Alt

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The internet is a large and scary place and it's easy to get lost. However, sometimes when you stumble down a dark alleyway online, you find someone you're glad you ran across. That happened to me tonight when I stumbled upon a website where and artist took cards from recent sets and retemplated them to look like they came from the Beta expansion. Old borders, old phrasing conventions and old art styles abound. It's a wacky place and I bet you'll like the cards as much as I do. Here are some gems.

Some of you may recognize the work of "The Proxy Guy"; a big proponent of the Heavy Meta and Brainstorm Brewery podcasts and all around great artist. While I don't condone making proxies and substituting them for real cards in cubes, something which doesn't support what we do here at QS nor what they do at Wizards of the coast, it's hard to deny how good some of the art is. Navigate around the page I linked for more sweet art.

KTK Limited Focus: Would You Splash for That?

Posted on September 24, 2014 by Danny Brown

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Some of the best advice I've heard with regards to deck building in Khans of Tarkir Limited is to consider your deck two colors, with a splash of a third or fourth color when reasonable (possibly something said on Limited Resources? Citation needed). So let's discuss briefly how splashing works, what kind of mana we need to do it, and what kinds of cards we might want to splash or avoid splashing.

As far as mana bases go, in general, the absolute minimum number of sources one should be playing for one's main color is eight. Nine is even better, especially if you have a lot of cards that require two colored mana, and ten or more will really make your deck comfortably consistent. If your list is relatively even between two colors, that means you'll need at least eight sources of each of those two main colors, which doesn't leave a lot of room for splashes in a deck with just basics.

As for splashes, I personally like to have three sources if I'm splashing a single off-color card, and more like four or five sources if I'm splashing more than one. This means that at bare minimum, for a two-color deck with a light splash, you need eight sources of two colors and three sources of a third, adding up to 19 total sources. Limited decks with 19 lands are more likely to flood out, and in a format featuring three-color cards, your spells are likely to be even more demanding than two colors with a light splash. That makes fixing in Khans of Tarkir absolutely essential.

If you want to be greedy with the spells you're playing, you need to prioritize the refuges and trilands when they come to you. If you do take a bunch of fixing, the question becomes: what kind of cards are good to splash? Let's look at a few examples.

Charms

Assuming you are only splashing one of the colors, you could do worse than splashing the charms. Some are better splashes than others, with something like Mardu Charm likely being better than the more reactive Temur Charm. Because these are generally good both early and late, it's not a disaster if you don't draw your splash color right away.

Morphs

Powerful off-color morphs are good splashes because even if you don't draw the splash color right away, you can still play them face down. If your deck is really hurting for playables, you can even play morphs that you literally cannot flip, although that's not exactly a plan to go in with. Morphs are an especially good splash if your mana base is strained a little bit, since they're not completely dead if you don't draw a needed color.

Removal

Assuming you're splashing powerful spells and not sub-par junk, removal is a great splash. Although it may be annoying to not be able to play a removal spell early, if your deck is built in such a way to help you survive to the late game, being able to pick off your opponent's bomb can be game-winning.

Bombs

Splashing your win condition or cards on the top end can be fine if you're okay with not necessarily casting them on curve. Even though it costs three mana, something like Savage Knuckleblade probably qualifies because it doesn't hurt to have mana up for its activated abilities when casting it. Game enders like Flying Crane Technique are easy splashes.

Splashes to Avoid

Major things you should avoid splashing are:

Low-cost, low-impact creatures that are only good in the early part of the game.
Cards that require two mana of the splashed color (unless your mana base is insane).
Cards that require two splashed colors (unless, again, your mana base can handle it. You need to be sure!)
Reactive spells, especially counterspells or combat tricks—if you don't have the mana when you need them, they're useless.

This was a very general discussion about a very complex topic, but if you're having trouble figuring out what cards are worth splashing in this format, I hope this was helpful. May you open bombs and win lots of packs!

Insider: Standard Decks That Will Survive Rotation

Posted on September 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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With the complete Khans of Tarkir spoiler being release, we can now do a lot more than just wonder about what cards could ultimately be viable and instead pick up what will clearly go into decks.

I'm still not really sure exactly what manner of zany wedge or 4+ color decks players are looking to brew, but there are several decks that will definitely be surviving rotation.

The Holdovers

Rabble Red

Red beatdown decks are definitely losing a number of tools going into rotation. Burning-Tree Emissary will certainly be missed, and losing Mutavault will hurt all manners of aggressive strategies. That said, the current red deck of favor is maintaining its namesake, along with quite a few excellent options for supporting players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Rabblemaster

Frenzied Goblin into Borderland Marauder into Rabblemaster is a very strong curve, and with Stoke the Flames at the top of that chain, red decks still have a lot of power.

Ultimately, the best build of suhk a deck is going to come down to just how far the rest of the field is stretching their mana and how popular the anti-red tools available become. I know that I wouldn't want to be playing Rabblemaster while my opponent is making these guys:

Of course, red mages could always push a strategy more synergy-driven, which could be crafted more decisively at this point. Eidolon of the Great Revel and Prophetic Flamespeaker still curve well into Fanatic of Mogis, but there is yet another direction we could go:

Three bodies for three mana is an interesting change of pace for red decks. These tokens would obviously make Rabblemaster hit harder, but more importantly they play very nicely with Hall of Triumph and Purphoros, God of the Forge-- those also not being slouches with Rabblemaster.

It is pretty unfortunate that Outburst doesn't help turn Purphoros into a creature, but perhaps the upside is high enough for this to not really matter. Either way, I fully expect people to try this, and it might be smart to trade for a few Purphoros, though I certainly wouldn't buy them at their current price, as there is just no way anybody is playing four copies of him and he is pretty niche.

Black Beatdown

While aggressive black decks have taken a backseat to their Pack Rat powered counterpart in RtR Standard, I find it extremely likely that people will be putting down their Gray Merchants and picking up Tormented Hero for Khans Standard.

This was already a reasonable block deck, and Bloadsoaked Champion is arguably the best black one drop ever printed. Minimally, he's an upgrade from Rakdos Cackler.

Grim Haruspex is another potential addition to such a deck, though it notably has significant downside over the other three-mana options that the deck has in addition to doing straight nothing against Anger of the Gods.

Master of the Feast could very well be the way to go if Anger is popular, though Haruspex is an option worth leaving open, and could be a good sideboard card at the very least.

Abstractly, Herald of Torment seems better than both options as a way to provide evasion as well as "haste" to three additional power. Not to mention that bestowing Herald onto Pain Seer is just fantastic.

In the dark, this is the maindeck I would run, with the least confidence in the three drops and the number of Sign in Blood that the deck should be playing.

Monoblack Aggro

creatures

4 Tormented Hero

4 Gnarled Scarhide

4 Bloodsoaked Champion

4 Pain Seer

4 Mogis's Marauder

4 Herald of Torment

4 Spiteful Returned

spells

2 Hero's Downfall

4 Bile Blight

4 Thoughtseize

2 Sign in Blood

lands

20 Swamp

No matter what is changed, Pain Seer is going to be a mainstay in this deck, which is very likely to be strong in a format of painlands and slow mana. It is only a regular rare, but there is no way that these stay under a dollar for long.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pain Seer

Golgari Self-Mill

There was a time when Conley Wood's "Dredge" deck was extremely popular on MTGO. It actually had a lot of favorable matchups and was very consistent for what it was. It was pretty weak to Burn, but since I didn't really play the deck, I can't really say what ultimately pushed nearly everybody off of it.

Perhaps it was weak to Black Devotion, but I couldn't say. Either way, the self-mill deck loses very few tools going into Khans Standard and even gains some interesting options going forward.

It remains to be seen whether Sidisi, Brood Tyrant is good enough for this type of strategy. If there were no blue mana symbols in Sidisi's cost, I believe the decision would be pretty easy, but it's possible that adding a third color isn't worth the cost in the deck.

Satyr Wayfinder certainly helps the mana, but the strength of the deck is that it makes Nemesis of Mortals and huge Nighthowlers quickly. The more taplands you play and the more damage your manabase does to you, the more inclined I would be to find a deck that plays a better game of ABC Magic.

It's more likely that I would be looking at Soul of Innistrad, Empty the Pits and Strength from the Fallen to add a bigger punch to the deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul of Innistrad

Soul of Innistrad strikes me as being a bit underpriced currently, and I like it as a spec. It's a core set mythic that is likely to bust any grindy matchup wide open, and with as many manafixing options available as there are, it could wind up in all manners of decks.

It's definitely slower and probably less good than Elspeth, Sun's Champion, but it's more resilient in addition to having a home in the self-mill deck where Elspeth just wouldn't make much sense.

New Stuff

I spent part of last week catching up with some old friends who were in town and playing the only event of Magic 2015-Ravnica-Theros Standard that I will ever play in the MOCS, so I haven't had a ton of time to brew. I've thought about a deck that plays Welkin Tern, Vaporkin and Master of Waves. I don't think it was very good.

That said, I do still fail to see how Mantis Rider won't be played and I still believe that Empty the Pits is underrated. Unfortunately I don't see how a regular rare could possibly be worth anything in a set with fetchlands.

There are a number of cards that I'm looking to acquire for my collection from Khans, but the only one that I believe is currently undervalued is Empty the Pits, but I don't expect it to go up by much because decks that want it are unlikely to want more than two copies.

I'm personally going to be waiting on everything from Khans that I'm not currently playing. Nothing looks like a sleeper, and outside of tracking down foils for Commander, I'm not looking to actively speculate on anything with any sense of immediacy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

I do plan to go nuts on fetchlands, particularly on MTGO, once the set is well-drafted and the market is nice and saturated. At that point it will be worth reassessing other cards in the set. There's still time for a number of Theros specks, like the aforementioned Pain Seer, and Nighthowler sounds like a solid pickup to me as well.

It's looking like Khans didn't deliver on my faith in Master of Waves, but I do believe that Master is only 1-2 cards off of being a Standard all star. It may even already be there in a way that I haven't been able to discover myself. Either way, I find it highly unlikely that we get two more sets in Standard without Master of Waves finding a solid home.

Either way, it shows up in Modern and it's still stock that I'm comfortable betting on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master of Waves

I hope you did well at the pre-release and thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: MTG Stock Watch Week of 9/20/14

Posted on September 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers! It's been two weeks so that means it's time for another stock watch. Without further ado, let'd jump right in.

Penny Stocks

#1 Crackling Doom (+93.3%) - This is the first "pre-order" card that I've covered since I started this segment and normally I wouldn't want to include them because with no supply in the marketplace prices can be quite crazy. It's also very common (i.e. almost always) that pre-order prices drop and the card values show a steady slope downward as more of them enter the marketplace.

I don't really like the card going forward (especially at its current price), but it's important to note that this card, unlike most edict effects before it, actually forces your opponent to sacrifice a much more specific creature, usually their best one. This does look like a solid removal spell (with a bit of burn to the face thrown in) for the new Standard, especially against decks that rely on a few larger creatures to close out the game.

#2 The Rack (+85.2%) (Timeshifted)/ The Rack (+70.8%) (Antiquities) - These are very interesting jumps. Both the black border versions jumped dramatically, while normal white border versions barely moved. I imagine some of this might be courtesy of the 8-Rack deck we saw get a brief spotlight in Modern, but is more likely a buyout.

Unfortunately, for the buyer there are a lot of copies of The Rack out there, so it looks like they just focused on the black border ones. I honestly don't trust this one long-term, so if you got 'em, unload 'em.

#3 Caves of Koilos (Apocalypse) (+39%) - This is another jump that's a bit surprising. People are catching on to the fact that the old pain lands, despite seeing several printings, are still relatively scarce compared to Modern day print runs--but this one showed up as a four-of in the Modern Event Deck. I realize that this jump is only of the Apocalypse version (which is the original), but it's odd that the most common of the enemy pain lands is the one that jumps.

#4 Battlefield Forge (9th Edition) (+23%) - This pain land jump is a bit less surprising. Reading over the forums the past few months we've seen a lot of people agreeing that the pain lands that are most likely to jump are the ones that support aggressive color combinations (predominantly Battlefield Forge). It's a bit odd that the 9th Edition version saw the highest of the jumps and has a higher price tag than any of the other versions.

#5 Soldier of the Pantheon (+15.3%) - This one wasn't a big surprise and it's one I'd mentioned previously. This guy plays well in a heavy multi-colored Standard format like Khans and is an efficient beater with a solid ability tacked on. I expect his price to continue to trend upward, especially during the first few weeks of Khans as all kinds of new multi-color decks emerge.

For those interested here's the stock graph from a few weeks ago.

Blue Chip Stocks

Let's take another look at our "blue chip" stocks now.

#1 Plateau (-4.41%) - It appears that overall we're still seeing a lot of the duals trending downward from their March spike. While not true for all of them (four of the ten had positive gains or no change this week), it does appear the current price of the duals isn't sustainable.

A lot of us thought (and are still thinking) that with the reprinting of the Onslaught fetches in Khans that Legacy mana bases got a lot more affordable, which might cause an increase in demand for other Legacy staples. It might still be too early to tell, but we'll likely get a better feeling on it on the next one (after Khans product has "hit the streets").

#2 Bayou (-2.39%) - With Infect being the new king of the SCG hill it's no suprise that the ousted king (Elves) has had a slight dip in demand of one of it's two most expensive cards (the other being Gaea's Cradle). Both Elves and Shardless BUG (another driving force behind Bayou's demand) are still strong decks, as both put finishers in the last Legacy Top 8. But the rise of Infect has made UWR Miracles a better choice, and it happens to have a lot of game against Elves. Shardless BUG is a different story and is very dependent on sticking a fast Liliana.

It's also of note that since I started this series, Bayou had previously remained outside either the biggest gainers or losers category and it might simply have been its time to follow the slow downward trend on dual prices.

#3 Volcanic Island (-2.3%) - The third dual in a row this week to continue the negative trend. Only one copy appeared in the entire SCG Top 8 in Atlanta (in the winning Miracles deck). With the previous rise of Shardless BUG, we saw a dip in the UWR Stoneforge decks. As for Sneak and Show, it can still easily put a pilot into the Top 8, but given it lives and breathes on assembling a quick combo and requires a lot of cheap cantrips to function, it has a hard time competing against an active Counterbalance.

#4 Tundra (+2.19%) - We've seen a resurgence in UWr Miracles recently and Tundra is the dual land of choice for this deck. It has a lot of game against combo style decks (courtesy of Counterbalance) and any "fair" creature decks thanks to a one-mana instant speed Hallowed Burial. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one continue its slight gains given the last winning deck of the SCG Open was Miracles.

#5 Wasteland (-1.86%) - Coming in at #5 is yet another declining land, though this time, not a dual. As the infect decks gain traction, the Stifle/Wasteland decks take a bit of a hit. They are good at grinding games down and limiting resources, but when your opponent has a lot of cheap creatures and interchangeable pump spells it's difficult to hold the fort down, especially when you start with half your life.

Value Stocks

We finally come to rotation, when our old shockland mana base changes to a fetch/temple/pain land mana base. The good news is that with the fetches back in Standard, not only did the price of a lot of Legacy decks go down (to increase interest) but they are actually very good for those who invested heavily in temples.

It's also important to keep in mind that as awesome as fetches are, they still only provide one color of mana (after they've been used). They are not permanent mana fixing so to speak, and won't help you if you need double green on turn two and double black on turn three. The format is also looking to slow down a bit, which makes lands that come into play tapped far less painful, thus the temples will see even more play.

The only downside I didn't account for was the massive amount that would be in the market. Many of us simply looked at previous mana fixing trends and assumed that all temples were the same (i.e. buy a bunch of the cheapest ones and when they all go up you'll have maximized your profit). Looking at the current prices though, we see that all the Theros temples have barely budged, while the Born of the Gods ones continue to be worth 50-100% more and the Journey into Nyx ones are now sitting at 200-300% of the Theros ones.

This isn't to say that the Theros ones are a bad investment, but simply to reiterate that the first set in a block has the most cards in the marketplace and the lower price ceiling because of that. This also implies that while fetchlands will be highly sought after for both Standard and eternal formats, the sheer number that will be cracked will be quite large and we can't expect them to reach their previous values for a long long time (if ever).

Growth Stocks

Looking over our growth stocks we see quiet a few dips from the lower end product all the way to the higher end product. With the announcement of the Onslaught fetchlands in Khans the Zendikar fetchlands all dropped in value by a good 30%. This likely carried over into the drop in demand for the sealed product. The previous Zendikar data was gathered before this announcement and a 9.21% drop is pretty significant.

The other big loser is Dark Ascension, though if you review the EV from a box of Dark Ascension you'll see it's really low. It has only three cards whose average price is over $5 and all three are mythics.

The drop in Avacyn Restored could likely be linked to Griselbrand being previewed as the next GP promo card (causing his price to drop from $27 to around $20) and as one of the three main pillars propping up the value in that set it was almost assured that the value of the sealed product would drop somewhat. Personally, I have concerns about WoTC throwing Avacyn (another of the AVR pillars) into the Commander product, which would tank her value and drop the sealed product even more.

Week of 9/22/14	Box	Most Recent Completed Auction	Second Most Recent	Third Most Recent	Fourth Most Recent	New Average	Average comparison
	Innistrad	$197.00	$203.00	$193.50	$186.00	$194.88	-3.18%
	Dark Ascension	$82.00	$87.00	$99.99	$99.00	$92.00	-9.91%
	Avacyn Restored	$128.49	$125.00	$117.50	$138.99	$127.50	-6.13%
	Scars of Mirrodin	$147.50	$169.00	$167.50	$189.99	$168.50	1.33%
	Mirrodin Besieged	$179.99	$169.95	$145.00	$167.50	$165.61	8.98%
	New Phyrexia	$295.00	$349.99	$338.00	$297.50	$320.12	-5.46%
	Zendikar	$450.00	$472.77	$499.99	$530.00	$488.19	-9.21%
	Worldwake	$659.99	$740.00	$621.00	$655.01	$669.00	-2.43%
	Rise of the Eldrazi	$510.00	$530.03	$560.00	$560.00	$540.01	-0.92%

Magic Finance: Why I Write

Posted on September 23, 2014September 24, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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I produce a lot of content for Magic. From QS to Brainstorm Brewery to Wizards to any of the other sites I've written for, it's a lot. I've been doing it weekly for more than four years at this point.

And I still enjoy it as much as ever.

That's why I took the time this week to write about exactly why it is I do what I do.

"It’s 5 a.m., and by all accounts I should be sleeping. Insomnia notwithstanding, I would be better off in bed, I’m sure. After all, today is another day back on the grind, which for me means a trip to some football practices and another day of writing about the exciting world of Oklahoma sports.

Instead I’m still up, hunched over my computer in the dark, writing this. And that’s a decision I can’t regret, no matter how many late nights I put in writing or podcasting about Magic..."

You can find the full post here, and I sincerely hope you find it worth your time.

- Corbin

Vintage with the Pros

Posted on September 23, 2014 by Danny Brown

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I've written before about the Shotgun Lotus Vintage Rotisserie Draft Series, and at the end of that piece, I mentioned an upcoming series: the Vintage Super League, hosted on Randy Buehler's Twitch channel. Tonight marks week five of the series, and it's been reasonably entertaining so far.

There have definitely been some growing pains. The first two weeks of the event were plagued by issues with Twitch, but even worse, hand cams had not yet been instituted. It's hard enough to follow what's going on MTGO version 4 in general, but with no hand information for either player, that issue was even further exacerbated. By week three, however, Shotgun Lotus figured out the hand cam issue and the stream took a giant leap forward.

Each of the competitors is taking a turn at commentating. Thankfully, LSV has been doing a round or two every week, which has been great. There's a wide range of commentating skills among the participants, so who you get will have a large impact on your viewing experience. Maybe it had to do with internet lag, but one player in particular was very prone to awkward silences.

I have similar feelings about the Vintage Super League as I have about the Vintage Rotisserie Draft Series: it's great for Magic content to have varied, cool events like this. Probably because of the difficulty of making a stream work from ten different locations (each participant plays remotely), the VSL is nowhere close to as pleasant or smooth a viewing experience VRDS. However, it's been improving every week, so if you've been waiting for the growing pains to pass, tonight might be a good time to start tuning in.

And just so you know, every round is recorded and posted to YouTube. For some reason, my computer struggles with Twitch playbacks, so it's nice to have an alternate way to watch. Being on the east coast, I will probably never catch the stream live, but it's nice to have the replays available for workouts and bottle feeding my son. If you like to see powerful Magic played by powerful mages, checking out the Vintage Super League is a reasonable line of play.

Insider: Choose Your Own Comparison

Posted on September 23, 2014January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Sometimes you eat the bear, sometimes the bear eats you and sometimes, well... sometimes you summon the bear and the bear eats someone else. I decided this weekend I wanted to summon the bear.

I went into the weekend thinking I was going to want to jam Mardu but Temur was calling to me. Not only was the prospect of potentially ending up with a foil Savage Knuckleblade or Howl of the Horde exciting, I thought ferocious rewarded you for doing something you want to do in Magic slightly more than raid did.

While you want to be attacking, I would rather play a card that rewarded me for having decent creatures rather than one that could see me make some potentially bad trades. While ferocious is a win-more mechanic slightly more than raid is, I figured the creatures in Temur would help me stay out of situations where I was behind, and if you're just using Icy Blast as a Gridlock, a card that won games in RTR Block Limited, you're going to be just fine. Besides, the color combination I prefer in general is going to edge out one I was playing solely to try and spike the prerelease every time.

The DCI reporting software put me at the very last table for deck construction. This meant I was going to be among the last four people to select their clan pack. This meant I was getting the fifth least popular clan. At the Friday midnight event, this ended up being Sultai.

I opened my packs and there was a Sultai deck there, for which I was grateful. My red and white was almost all trash and there was nothing I wanted to splash, so I ended up just being delve.dec.

It turned out fine, I guess. I got a ton of mana fixing in my lands--so much that I didn't run Sultai banner, which I was looking forward to doing because I like a Mind Stone with upside. My foil rare in my clan pack was a Rakshasa Vizier, which won plenty of games due to how much damage you deal then when you attack with it, they don't block and you delve into a Become Immense. Vizier REALLY became immense all night, and while he was a beating in Limited, he is a bit underwhelming in Standard most likely and I wasn't too thrilled about having him as my promo.

As I played more people throughout the night, I came across people with sick promos. I am happy to say I ended up with both promo Hardened Scales that were opened in my shop. I shifted attention away from my disappointing Vizier and toward my shiny, sex-tastic new EDH foils.

It should have occurred to me earlier, but it was occurring to me now that I had multiple foil copies with prerelease stamps on them--where are these promos going to shake out in the card hierarchy?

Card Hierarchy?

I'm glad I pretended a reader asked that, rhetorical device I use to lob myself softballs. As I see it, there is a price hierarchy for Magic cards. If you have a prerelease promo like Emrakul, there will be a hierarchy in pricing.

Pack foil
Promo foil
Regular pack non-foil

While the promo is a foil, its price is below pack foil in the hierarchy. Most times, we see the promo foil much closer in price to the non-foil despite the card being foil. The rationale? Everyone got one for free. They were not as rare as a pack foil rare since foil rares are one or two to a box, giving you roughly a 1-2 in 40 chance of getting a specific rare per $100 spent. Meanwhile each store received hundreds of copies of the promo to distribute to every player in every event.

How will these new prerelease promo cards fit in to our existing hierarchy?

How Rare Are They?

In the very beginning we didn't get prerelease promos. At the Alliances prerelease, I drove four hours from Michigan to Chicago and we got two packs of Homelands and one pack of Alliances and we had to build a 60-card deck. And we were grateful.

Later, one special card was chosen to be distributed as a thank you to every player who participated in the event. Recently, with the advent of the clan packs and guild packs (not to be confused with guildpacts) and all sorts of other wackiness, we were starting to get five promos per set. Sometimes the promos were good cards; most times they were Tier Siege Dragon.

When the M15 prerelease happened, there was much bitching heard all over the internet. Indulgent Tormentor was heads and shoulders better than the other promos, so why would players ever not pick black, all things being equal?

Aaron Forsythe fielded a lot of this bitching on Twitter and did a much better job masking his contempt for the people berating him than I likely would have been able to. Any Wizards employee who interacts with a member of the Magic community on Twitter and manages not to call them the horrible names they're likely thinking, is a saint in my opinion.

Because it's not 100% sure, but it's fairly likely that when neckbeards were on Twitter whining about the M15 promos, he probably knew that Khans would be handled differently. Instead of being able to say, "We solved the issue going forward, so shut up, you basement-dwelling nerds," he had to smile and say, "We're exploring different solutions" or whatever super patient answer he gave, cementing him as a Zen master in my mind.

There is not one clear go-to promo now. You pick the clan you want and you will get a promo chosen at random from the eligible promos in that clan. There are no clans that don't have a shot at a planeswalker or other mythic while others do, so the only consideration is which clan you want to play.

There are now 40 promo cards. You don't have a 1 in 40 chance of getting a specific promo because only clan-specific rares are in the individual clan's packs. That gives you a 1 in 8 chance of getting a specific rare per clan pack, but, realistically, you have a 1 in 40 distribution across the entire store's shipment.

Once we stop looking at the odds of getting something in a tournament and focus on the distribution of the cards worldwide when the event is over, we notice something interesting. Namely, in terms of distribution, these are closer to pack foils than they are promos.

The (Fuzzy) Math

This is going to be a little fuzzy, but we're looking at ratios and proportions right now, not calculating something to two decimal places. And really, there is going to be more variance built in with respect to playability than with respect to distribution, so all I want to accomplish is to figure out where to slot these bad boys in on our hierarchy so we can figure out how to evaluate where they will go long-term.

The information about foil distribution is printed on each booster pack. If memory serves, it's at about 1:67 (for every 67 copies of a card there is one foil) but that information isn't really relevant to us. We already know about how the price of a foil versus a non-foil shakes out, and these promos won't change that. What we are interested in is how many of each promo there will be relative to the pack foils and pack non-foils.

There are 53 non-mythic rares and 15 mythic rares in Khans of Tarkir and 40 of them are "eligible" for insertion as promos. Clan-specific cards only are considered. No fetchlands, no planeswalkers. Some clans have one mythic (the khan) some have two (the khan and a bulk mythic, although Temur had access to See the Unwritten). Temur was the way to go financially, but you can't always get what you want.

Still, while you only had access to your pool for playing, a savvy trader considers anything opened in his area a potentially gettable card. With the chase cards in the set (the planeswalkers and fetches) ineligible for insertion as promo cards, we're looking at maybe one or two breakout cards. The rest of the rares are likely to end up looking a lot like a foil stamped Siege Dragon.

40 total promos means our math is very simple--you have a 1 in 40 chance of each one. With five promos in M15, a Khans of Tarkir promo is 8 times as rare. With 1 in previous sets, a Khans of Tarkir promo is 40 times as rare. While we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back too hard for our foil Pearl Lake Ancient being 40 times as rare as a promo Wurmcoil Engine, this is still going to matter.

1 in 40? What is this number very close to? I know! It's very close to 1 in 36. 1 in 36 is roughly the distribution of foil rares in sealed product. Since there is roughly one or two foil rares per box (and roughly one foil mythic for every seven foil rares), the distribution of foil promos looks pretty similar to the distribution of non-promo rares. Per $100 spent, you're looking at either roughly three prerelease packs or one booster box--the proportions aren't bad.

If you pay $80 for boxes like I do and consider a prerelease entry about $40 the numbers are even closer. That's not exactly fair because most places only charge $30ish, but it's not fuzzing the numbers too terribly. You have a 2 in 40 chance of those rares for $80 spent on prereleases and about a 2 in 36 chance at the same foil rares (minus the ones that aren't eligible) with $80 worth of sealed boosters.

It's not exactly on the nose, but it's closer than it's ever been.

Other Factors

Some things throw this off a bit. First and foremost, we have the rares and mythics that are not eligible. There are 68 cards in those slots in booster boxes and 40 cards in those slots in the prerelease packs. You're going to see some of the foil promo cards much more frequently if you buy two clan packs versus buying a booster box.

Even if we pretend it's Schrödinger's clan pack and don't determine its identity but merely think about the proportional distribution (meaning it could be any of the 40 eligible cards rather than one of the specific 8 in a given clan box) we'll still see more of them because there are more eligible foil rares and mythics in sealed boosters. That's just a mitigating factor, but it doesn't really change the fact that these promos are closer in distribution to foil rares than any promo in the past.

Another factor in the opposite direction is that we're done with clan packs. Some stores may keep some sealed and sell them in the future, but this was a popular prerelease. My LGS had its best week in the history of the store due to this set. So, the clan packs are gone. The total supply of prerelease stamped foil rares and mythics is released already.

And while before stores would get a whole slew of the promos to pass out, now they are getting them in direct proportion to the total number of tournament entries because the promos come in the tournament packs, not loose like before. This means they printed way fewer of the promos because they're not being given out like candy. Booster boxes are going to continue to produce copies of the set foil rares and mythics.

Another factor needs to be mentioned as well. I know it's a bag of dicks, but Magic Online is still a thing. As long as it's profitable to do so (even with the $15 redemption fee), MODO redemption is still going to inject additional foil copies. These are printed (or soon will be) and are (or soon will be) sitting boxed up and ready to be distributed to MODO redeemers. The finite supply of stamped foils is exhausted while we are just getting started introducing set foils.

Some people don't like how "common" the old prerelease promos were, or didn't like the stamp or didn't like the alternate art. All of a sudden, two of those factors are non-factors. The prerelease promos are 40 times as rare as the promos from older sets. 40 times as rare. That's a lot rarer. Not only that, they don't have alternate art. Not wanting to commission 40 additional pieces of art, WotC preferred to haphazardly just smash a foil stamp on regular foil copies.

This basically leaves people who don't like the date stamped on there. I'm willing to bet there are an equal number of people who consider the stamp a selling point rather than a liability. I just made that up, but it doesn't really matter. We're talking about value based on rarity, not someone's sensibilities.

Hierarchy Revisited

Pack foil
Promo foil
Regular pack non-foil

Our old hierarchy of prices based on scarcity and other factors looked like this. So where are we jamming in the foil, prerelease-stamped cards? After looking at the various factors, I think it's actually going to look like this going forward:

Prerelease promo
Pack foil
Regular pack non-foil

I think we have an unprecedented scarcity of individual foil rares and mythics with the prerelease stamp. I think they are going to be closer in price to the foil than they are to the non-foil, which is something people aren't ready for.

You should be able to trade for the promos at non-foil prices if people continue to assume that they will be closer in price to the non-foil the way promos traditionally have in the past. It will take some time for the prices to shake out, but in the mean time, I think you're safe aggressively trading for these because I believe they will stabilize higher than promos have traditionally. The very playable cards like See the Unwritten, Hardened Scales and the khans will be even better.

I think the promo stamp has the potential to be a selling point and I am all about picking these up. I don't see them stabilizing close to the non-foil price like traditional promos, and that bet could make a lot of us a lot of money in the next few weeks if you agree with me.

Insider: [MTGO] Viability of Long-Term Investments on MTGO

Posted on September 23, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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One of the major difference between the paper and online versions of Magic: the Gathering is the ability to "print" sets and cards at will on MTGO. There's no such a thing as the Reserve List online and pretty much all cards can be reprinted anytime through flashback drafts, MOCS promos and other special decks or sets.

Reprinting cards on MTGO is one way to keep prices on check and make sure that eternal formats remain, somehow, accessible. The most expensive cards online, Force of Will and Lion's Eye Diamond, once hit 150 tix a piece. With their recent reprint in Vintage Masters they completely collapsed to 35 tix and 15 tix a piece, respectively.

Aside from the newly-introduced-to-MTGO Black Lotus, Rishadan Port and Wasteland became the most expensive cards online. The incoming Tempest flashback drafts have momentarily deflated the price of Wasteland to a more bearable 100 tix price tag.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wasteland

From a speculative standpoint, this reprint policy on MTGO renders any sort of long-term speculations harder, if not impossible. Two or three years of slow and steady growth can vanished in a matter of days with the announcement of the new MOCS promo card or most effectively with the spoilers list of a Masters set. As of now, no card is sacred online. There's no reserve list and it's presumably only a matter of time before any given card is being reprinted.

Given these parameters you can't buy the equivalent of paper Vintage staples, P9 pieces, dual lands and other reserve listed cards, sit on it and wait years for prices to rise with a certain degree of certainty.

Nonetheless several cards have been around for quite a while on MTGO and had the time to reach a pretty high value. If Force of Will and Lion's Eye Diamond have seen their prices shattered by the massive reprint that was VMA, others such as Rishadan Port, Misdirection and Mox Opal, to name the top ones only, are still cruising to new heights every day. Sure they have not been reprinted yet. But they also were at some point in time really cheaper. Do such opportunities still exist nowadays?

When looking closer at reprints and their impacts on prices I see two things:

For some cards, and mostly true staples of eternal formats, reprints didn't really do anything in the long run, even in the form of a popular draftable set.
Reprints are actually the ideal entry point for long-term speculations! The more massive the reprint the better it is for your ROI.

Long-Term Modern Trends

When looking at the older Modern staples, even reprinted in a popular set like Modern Masters, Tarmogoyf, Vendilion Clique, Cryptic Command and Dark Confidant barely tilted in the grand scheme of price trend.

Take a look at Dark Confidant. Without looking at the time scale, do you see a marked price drop due to Modern Masters? In the very long run, that are these four years on MTGO, the black wizard is on a continuous upward trend.

How about Vendilion Clique?

For sure Modern is a popular enough format to maintain these kind of trends. Heavy reprints have momentarily delayed the raise, at best. Since the inception of Modern, key cards of the format have been heading up despite big swings.

And when looking at Modern staples from later sets the trend is about the same once out of Standard.

Depending on the card they have bigger or smaller swings, but if a card is a true Modern staple its price is inevitably heading up in the long run.

Long-Term Legacy/Vintage Trends

Mtggoldfish doesn't have prices prior to 2011. Between 2011 and Vintage Masters, Legacy and Vintage staples saw mostly increased prices.

Not all cards increased in price during that period--Force of Will had big ups and downs around 100 tix without a real upward trend. However other staples such as Lion's Eye Diamond, Misdirection, Show and Tell, Rishadan Port and the dual lands have gained tremendous value over the years since their initial print on MTGO.

Reprints and promos also affected the prices of Legacy/Vintage cards but only Vintage Masters had a strong effect on prices. You can see the big price drop for Volcanic Island; this fall is about the same for every Legacy/Vintage staple reprinted in VMA.

Vintage and Legacy don't have the same popularity as Modern and I don't expect staples from VMA to rebound as fast as Tarmogoyf and Cryptic Command did. Nonetheless I expect cards such as Force of Will and Lion's Eye Diamond to slowly recover and converge to the 100 tix mark again sooner or later.

Finding Long-Term Positions

In light of the examples above it appears that long-term investments on MTGO are not as impossible as one may think. In the course of several years swings can be high but the general trend is conserved.

Only massive reprints in the form of draftable sets such as Vintage Masters and Modern Masters seem to be able to significantly alter a long-term trend. Alternatively, these Masters sets also constitute excellent buying opportunities--prices are bound to rebound after a big drop.

Rotation out of Standard also appears to be a good initial entry point for long-term growth in solid Modern and Legacy/Vintage staples.

Vintage Masters

Talking about massive reprints in the form of Masters sets and good long-term buying opportunities, VMA is exactly what you want. Prices are already on the rise but are nothing compare to what they should be in a year or two and after VMA stops being available at the MTGO store (in two weeks or so).

Vintage and Legacy are certainly not as popular as Modern, and the continuous disappointment in the V4 client might slow down the rise of VMA cards. However Legacy cards made their way up before and will do so again. Fixing MTGO and popularizing Vintage would surely help and make prices go up faster. I hope WotC is genuinely willing to improve the MTGO experience and consequently keep the player base expanding, for the sake of both Magic and our specs.

There are two kinds of potential long-term specs in Vintage Masters--reprints and new cards.

All reprints of true Vintage/Legacy staples dropped considerably, losing easily 80% of their value for some. Even Vintage restricted cards are good targets. After all, now that Mana Crypt is worth ten times less than before VMA, more casual players will be inclined to get their copy. To name only the top ones, here are some Vintage staples you may want to consider for long-term investments.

More into uncharted territory, and besides P9 pieces, VMA brought its lot of new cards to MTGO. The new cards are mostly from Conspiracy but also from Arabian Nights, Portal and Starter 1999.

Conspiracy

I see Conspiracy cards in VMA like cards from Mirage, Tempest, Urza and Masques blocks. Meaning that these sets and VMA have been drafted for a very limited period of time and contain high quality, undervalued cards. Conspiracy cards that are going to be in demand have never been released before and are in limited supply. Some of these cards are mythics from a set of 325 cards!

In particular, Dack Fayden is a potential Misdirection or Show and Tell in terms of price. This planeswalker could easily be worth 50 tix or more in two years from now.

In VMA, Marchesa, the Black Rose, Coercive Portal, Scourge of the Throne and Muzzio, Visionary Architect are also mythics and are worth about 0.1-0.2 tix now. If you want my opinion they not only won't stay that low for a long time but will be way more pricier in a year or two.

To a lesser extent the same reasoning also applies for Conspiracy cards that are rares in VMA. For now, the supply is high compared to demand. However, in the grand scheme of things, supplies are pretty low and prices won't wait to increase.

Other MTGO newcomers

If these were never released online, they are either functional reprints or cards with almost no interest.

I would also consider Commander cards reprinted in VMA, such as Edric, Spymaster of Trest, Baleful Strix and Chaos Warp. These cards held significant value before VMA. Now that their value has been slaughtered by this reprint, prices are set for a long-term rebound. Edric was above 15 tix last May. How long do you think he is going to be worth 0.2 Tix? Even a bounce to 2 tix is a 1000% increase! In the long run I foresee only great upside for these cards.

Finally, if you think MTGO will still be around in couple of years, betting on Power Nine cards is probably a good move.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Recall

The Modern Pool

If Modern maintains its popularity, we have nice fertile ground for great speculations and potentially for long-term investments as well. Reprints are expected to be more frequent in Modern though, whether in the form of individual cards as in the case of Thoughtseize, or in the form of sets like the expected Modern Masters 2.

Modern is also the ideal format for sudden spikes. Here I'll focus on cards that are known to be Modern staples and, similarly to Dark Confidant and Cryptic Command, should keep gaining value over the next few years, with or without a potential reprint in Modern Masters 2.

After Innistrad block flashback drafts, Snapcaster Mage should be set for a constant rise. Playable in all eternal formats, only a reprint in Modern Masters 2 could stem its price rise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

All the other cards on this short list are about to rotate out of Standard are will be at their absolute bottom next October. They are all true staples in Modern or Legacy/Vintage and are guaranteed investments for a long period of time.

Exiting Long-Term Positions

Many of the cards I mentioned here should constitute strong investments in the long run. With patience they should yield great returns. If you should decide to commit to some of these positions, you want to make sure you are not in a rush to make profits--plan on investing for one or two years minimum.

As shown above with some examples, the trend might be a constant upward slope with ups and downs that can last several months or even a year. It took a year for Vendilion Clique to recover its January 2013 price, before finally rising even higher.

With the history of prices available on Mtggoldfish now, you want to take advantage of that knowledge when you exit your long-term investments. Based on previous price swings and overall history of a card you may want to anticipate a high to sell your positions, and you must be ready to wait for a low to pass.

If you are buying cards that are now very low because of VMA, a target price to sell these cards could a price near the previous highs of these cards before VMA list was spoiled. I would believe that Lion's Eye Diamond will be worth again around 100 Tix in a distant future.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

An Appeal for Non-Foil Promos

Posted on September 22, 2014September 24, 2014 by Danny Brown

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I played a Two-Headed Giant Khans of Tarkir prerelease this weekend, and it was extremely satisfying to play with all these new cards we've been looking at for the last few weeks. This set seems like it's going to offer lots of depth. Two-color decks are perfectly reasonable (and perhaps, much like in Dragon's Maze, the most consistent strategies), but the fixing is also prevalent enough that five color decks should be easy enough to pull off if you do it right.

The prerelease packs were pretty well done, too. For the first time since Return to Ravnica, I did not choose my my color based on what the most powerful promo was. That's important. In fact, I had fun just not really having an opinion on what the best pack to grab was, thinking I might go Temur or Jeskai but making a last-minute audible into Mardu instead.

Unfortunately, the seeded pack was short a rare from what we've been given the last two years. From Return to Ravnica to Magic 2015, the seeded pack has included the guaranteed promo in addition to an on-theme, semi-random rare. With Khans of Tarkir, since the promos themselves were semi-random, WOTC gave us only the foil promo in our seeded packs.

Losing out on a free rare is kind of a bummer, but it's important to remember that promos are a bonus and that we don't have any inherent right to them. Yes, it's kind of a feel-bad that WOTC took away something that we had plenty of time to grow accustomed to, but it's not as if they're taking away the rare slot altogether. WOTC could even make the argument that we were given a guaranteed foil, which is a bonus over what one would expect to get in a normal booster pack.

That point, however, is what I'm taking issue with. I don't like foils. In fact, I despise them. They warp, can you get disqualified from tournaments, and inspire more stress in situations where someone is playing with your cards (such as loaning a deck or cubing). I opened a Bloodsoaked Champion in my seeded pack, a card that will almost certainly be going into my cube. But the fact that I refuse to run foils means that this particular card is useless to me. At least with a normal pack foil, one could make the argument that it's worth more, but that just isn't true with promos—in fact, they're often worth less than their non-foil counterparts.

I'm probably in the minority of people that don't want foil promos, but I'm sure that I'm not the only one. The point of this post isn't to complain about something that's ostensibly a bonus—I had a blast at the prerelease and think Wizards did great work making it fun. But I do want to publicly appeal to Wizards for one simple thing: more non-foil promos. I want to add sweet, alternate versions of cards to my cube, but short of Game Day participation promos, we haven't got a lot of goodies for foil-haters in the last few years. If you're with me, voice your opinion below. More non-foil promos, Wizards!

Quality Control of Tarkir

Posted on September 22, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Miscuts and misprints are nothing new, really. They happen all the time. What doesn't happen all the time is a token getting inserted into a booster pack with Sharpie on it.

Is it Sharpie? The guy who opened it said it looked slightly like it was printed on, which is even more confusing.

This seems like a new class of misprint I'm not used to seeing. I realize the cards are printed, and sometimes there are malfunctions with the printers.

This is a good example. I'm assuming this is from a deckbuilder's toolkit.

I personally came into possession of an entire miscut sheet that fits together that all ended up in a deckbuilder's toolkit I ended up with as part of a collection I bought. Deckbuilder's toolkit and Event deck cards always look slightly different from cards opened in boosters leading me to wonder if they are printed by a different company.

The Quality control for Khans boosters is atrocious, however. When we're not getting miscut foils...

we're getting reports of booster packs that had no rares. Every prize pack I opened at the prerelease had a card in it upside down.

Is a new company doing the printing or packing for this set that hasn't been used before? I can't say, but I don't like that it appears Quality Control is taking a nose-dive. With the failure of Magic Online to serve as a credible alternative to playing paper Magic, it's a worrying sign that the paper product shows signs of neglect. This is still the best game there is, but that doesn't mean WotC can slack off.

Insider: Non-Standard Speculation and the Impact of Khans

Posted on September 22, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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This past weekend brought the prerelease to local gaming shops all over the globe. I suspect players arrived in record breaking numbers for a chance to cast the newest shard-based spells while hoping to acquire a fetch land or two. I say “suspect” because I cannot know for certain. I didn’t go.

Certainly this isn’t the first prerelease I decided to skip. Often times I skip prerelease events for the smaller sets of a block because the “newness” of the block wears off. But I even had more excitement for Magic 2015’s prerelease event than I did for Khans of Tarkir.

What is wrong with me?

I think perhaps the newest Magic set just doesn’t really inspire me as much as previous sets. I tweeted this sentiment last week, and I got mixed responses. Some followers agreed that the set is almost stale before it was even released due to the re-use of various keywords and dynamics. Others feel this set is an EDH player’s paradise and they are thrilled to get more spells that fit into these new shards. No matter their opinions, mine remains the same: other than the fact that I can re-acquire allied color fetch lands for cheap, there is little here that excites me.

Onto the Finance

Here’s the good news: I don’t have to feel inspired to play new Standard in order to share MTG Finance insights. Sealed was never really my strength anyway, so it behooves me to skip over prerelease and release events – for me, it’s just bad EV. Besides, my sealed pools are typically worth about $5-$10 and I don’t usually win prizes at these events. Therefore I’ve made the conscious decision to place resources elsewhere.

For example, I still believe Dual Lands have taken a cyclical breather from their never ending growth trajectory.

After a wild spike back in April of this year, many Dual Land prices have steadily declined. But I feel this decline is finally leveling out. While Onslaught Fetch Lands are certainly not the biggest barrier to entering Legacy, it’s possible that a small resurgence in Legacy interest may stem from the reprinting of these critical lands. I didn’t believe that the reprint of Tarmogoyf would increase the price of Tarmogoyf along with many other Modern cards, yet this was the case. Perhaps newer players will strive to trade their newly opened foil Khans of Tarkir fetch lands towards Legacy.

Even if this thesis doesn’t hold true, the newest set will definitely drive greater interest in EDH. You know what also sees a ton of play in tri-colored EDH decks? Dual Lands. Assuming the newest set is a hit, the rising tide will once again lift all ships. The “ships” that see the most usage across multiple formats should rise quite a bit.

Targets with Lower Barrier to Entry

Dual Lands have one major flaw when it comes to MTG investing: they are already super expensive! Go buy a couple blue duals and a Scrubland or two and you may rapidly exhaust your MTG budget. While this may not be a bad strategy, I’ve always been a firm supporter of diversification.

So what else should we look towards as Khans of Tarkir is released? Well for starters, it’s worth at least considering older cards that fit in with the five new shards of the set. If these new color combinations increase in popularity amongst the Commander crowd, perhaps older cards that fit in nicely may see a small bump in demand.

Granted, we can’t just go out and buy every card that aligns with a specific Khans shard. Overgrown Estate is still terrible and likely much worse than Zuran Orb. But what about something fun like Guided Passage?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Guided Passage

The three mana sorcery may be a bit of a penny stock right now, but the card has gradually increased in price over the past couple years and I see that trend continuing.

There are also the five dragons from Planar Chaos. Don’t get me wrong, their prices all tanked thanks to their reprint in Commander decks. But they have been steadily rebounding over the past few months, and I see interest in these creatures increase as players build decks around the new shards.

And if you really want to get targeted, you could always focus on foil versions of some of these cards. Numot, the Devastator may be on sale at Star City Games for just $0.50, but NM foil copies are $15.99! AND there are only a few less-than-perfect copies in stock right now. Barring a re-appearance of these cards in Khans block, I only see these foils heading higher. Khans block can be that exact catalyst to send prices higher. Heck, even foil Guided Passage retails for $12.99!

And let’s also not forget one of my favorite creatures that fits into a Khans shard: Doran, the Siege Tower, which has also been on an uptick lately.

Star City Games is sold out of set foils at $9.99 – expect these to go higher as well.

One Standard Idea

Most of you know by now that Standard isn’t my forte. I usually prefer formats where I can play some of my most powerful (or entertaining) cards. This drives me to focus on Modern, Legacy and EDH. Hence why I made mention of the suggestions I did above.

Despite this focus, I did have one idea worth sharing with regards to Standard. It may not be breakthrough – in fact I know it’s not – but I haven’t mentioned this thesis before in my articles and so I wanted to share it. Forgive me if it is redundant with your own rationales.

A Look at Pain Lands

Over the past few months I’ve been talking up Theros block temples and Mana Confluence nonstop. These mana fixing lands will be critical in supporting three and four colored decks in Standard. But I neglected one other cycle of mana-fixing lands we’ll have access to in the new Standard: enemy colored pain lands!

Now, don’t get me wrong, I recognize these have already shot up significantly. But the fact of the matter is, these come into play untapped and they provide a lasting flexibility that fetch lands cannot provide. Also, being enemy colored, they cannot be easily replaced by allied colored fetches. Therefore there will still be a major demand for these lands as they likely will replace Shock Lands in decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Caves of Koilos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shivan Reef

We have to acknowledge that these lands have been reprinted numerous times before. But I personally believe we are overestimating the availability of the older copies. What’s more, print runs are much larger today than they were when these lands were last printed, in Tenth Edition. With these factors in mind, I believe the enemy colored pain lands can go higher.

Their price ceilings will not be as high as that on Temple of Epiphany, which is why I like some Temples more. But I believe enough players are overlooking pain lands so that there remains plenty of upside.

As of today, I admittedly own zero pain lands because I am one of those overlooking speculators. But I’d advocate at least considering a diversification effort by trading into some pain lands. These should be fairly plentiful in trade binders right now, but once Khans of Tarkir becomes all that is opened at Friday Night Magic, these should dry up very quickly.

Wrapping it Up

I’ve never been a huge fan of Standard, and for some reason the latest set isn’t inspiring to me. In order to maintain my engagement in MTG Finance, I’ve shifted focus to cards outside of Standard I believe will see impact from Khans of Tarkir. This includes Dual Lands, foils of older cards that fit into the Khans shards, and even enemy colored pain lands.

Lately I’ve been focusing heavily on Dual Lands, neglecting some of these other ideas. After all, there are limitations to our resources and we can’t invest everywhere. But if you’re already past Khans of Tarkir like I am and you are lacking some inspiration, consider some of the ideas presented above – they have very limited downside with potential for upward movement. That’s usually the risk/reward profile I like to place my bets on!

…

Sigbits

I listed some older cards above that fit into Khans shards and have surprisingly high foil prices. Here are a couple more that may surprise you.

Fervent Charge is definitely not one of the most inspiring cards that Mardu has to offer. The Enchantment is still quite cheap. Yet a move may be possible, as Star City Games is currently sold out of both nonfoil and foil copies with price tags of $0.25 (on sale) and $1.99, respectively. This isn’t my favorite target, but I can’t ignore the fact that foils of this card may become hard to find.
There is already enough reason to love Kaalia of the Vast. She offers some of the best flavor in the game for casual players. Now we have yet another reason to expect her price to go higher. Her affiliation with Mardu means she may be getting some additional attention by EDH players. Perhaps that’s why foil copies of the Human Cleric from Commander’s Arsenal are sold out at $34.99 at SCG.
Whatever you do, please do NOT target foil Fungal Shamblers. He may be tempting due to his affiliation with the Sultai shard, but he was also one of the prerelease promos. Star City Games has plenty of these in stock. If Sultai is your favorite shard, then you’d be better off targeting foil Vorosh, the Hunter or even Damia, Sage of Stone. But be aware that these cards retail for near $10 with plenty in stock. They may still move higher, but perhaps not as quickly as some of the aforementioned targets.