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Insider: [MTGO] M14 and Return to Ravnica Block Post Rotation – Part 2

Posted on September 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Following my article last week about M14 & Return to Ravnica block mythics post rotation, today's article will be dedicated to rares.

Similarly to mythics, rares are experiencing an ongoing price drop. However, unlike mythics, which may have already bottomed and are on the rise for some of them, rares are expecting to keep falling until the end of fall.

Redemption helps push prices of mythics because they are the limiting cards to redeem a set. That is absolutely not the case with rares. For the same rarity reason if a mythic has a casual appeal its price may be driven up. This effect is pretty much inexistent with rares. Rares have to be tournament playable in order to rebound and be worth something once out of Standard.

Picking up Rares

Last week I said that even top rares see a significant decline and get to their bottom by the end of October-early November. This trend is merciless and has no exception. Even rares that are currently played in other formats and may be considered as staples will see a sizable decrease in price.

Take a look at some examples from the recent block rotations.

Innistrad Block

Modern format staples from Innistrad block used to be quite expensive while in Standard but dropped considerably soon after Standard rotation, always in October or later.

Snapcaster Mage didn't drop very far compared to the other rares, but still its lowest point was in October 2013. If you remember, the Mage was not heavily played in Standard at the end of the Innistrad block era. Snapcaster Mage's price was already supported by some Modern demand at that time and it therefore may explain why it didn't dip more than a couple of Tix in October-November.

Grafdigger's Cage is one of these few cards that has more value now than it had when Standard playable. Finding these kinds of cards can be extremely profitable. Thanks to the rebirth of the Vintage format, between last October and now the price of the Cage has been multiplied by more than 20! Prior to this, the Cage did make a very decent ascension to 4 Tix.

Scars of Mirrodin Block

Looking at Scars of Mirrodin rares played in Modern, they have also crashed hard when Standard rotation hit.

We see rares have abruptly dropped to reach their lowest prices in October. A very interesting fact here is that these cards saw a pretty big spike in August, right after the release of M12. Close enough to the spike we are experiencing now because of Pro Tour M15?

It happened before and it is likely to happen again. Even cards that spiked so close to rotation will see a big drop in the coming weeks.

Thragtusk

Once a dominant card in Standard, it totally collapsed after M14 rotated out. With very fringe play in Modern, its price remains under 1 Tix as of now. Thragtusk is the perfect example of a card that can reach summits in Standard but are worth close to nothing if they have no use in Eternal formats.

My point here is that when it comes to invest in rares post Standard rotation, I'm following two rules:

No matter how good and promising in Eternal formats a rare is, I'm waiting until October to pull the trigger.
If a rare doesn't have significant application in Eternal formats, I won't touch it. Casual won't save me.

Now we know that timing when buying is half the work for profitable returns when it comes to rares rotating out of Standard, what are the potential candidates with Return to Ravnica block and M14 cards?

Return to Ravnica

On one hand, Return to Ravnica doesn't have a lot to offer post rotation with mythics. On the other, this set has a quite large amount of rares that are playable in Eternal formats and should be worth a couple of Tix beyond their time in Standard.

I divided my targets into three categories, more or less based on their likelihood to be profitable specs.

Must Have

No doubt these guys will retain value post Standard. No matter how low they are going to be next October, I'll pick them up.

I'm especially curious and interested in Deathrite Shaman. It is barely played in the Tier 2 decks of Standard and banned in Modern. However, it is a Legacy staple and sees some play in Vintage as well. I want its price to go as low as possible because it has a tremendous potential for rebound. It will be one of the best investment for the coming years.

With Legacy and Vintage hopefully growing, this would be the fuel to help propel the Shaman's price. An additional possibility that could transform this investment into gold bars is unbanning it in Modern. This is definitely a possibility and I don't want to miss the opportunity to buy Deathrite Shaman this cheap.

Cards With Potential

All of these cards have seen some play in Eternal formats but clearly not as much as in Standard.

They should drop pretty significantly in October, probably to 0.1-0.2 Tix range or lower. It may also take time for them to recover to a more decent price as they are not heavily played in Modern.

Pack Rat is starting to make some noise in Modern, at least as a potential card to grow the ranks of BGx decks. Covered by good discard spells, this creature has the potential to win the game alone if not answered very quickly. Certainly Modern decks have more answers than Standard, but the Rat could do the job that, sometimes, Tarmogoyf can't. Rotation could be a good opportunity to buy Pack Rat cheap before it explodes again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pack Rat

Similarly to Grafdigger's Cage and Stony Silence, I think Rest in Peace will have a huge amount of room to grow in the future. I expect the white enchantment to fall very close to 0.05 Tix in the following weeks. This is one of the very few penny cards I'll be willing to accumulate hundreds of copies of.

Outsiders

These cards have made fringe to little appearances in Eternal formats. I would, however, consider buying these at very very low price and I expect them to touch 0.05 Tix. They have the potential to be played in competitive Modern decks but haven't shown much so far.

Among these, Slaughter Games is probably my favorite. I would almost put it in the same category as Stony Silence, Grafdigger's Cage and Rest in Peace, except that two different colored mana in the casting cost makes it less ubiquitously playable. From a 0.05 Tix floor, the potential gain is enormous.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Slaughter Games

Gatecrash

Must Have

These are obvious. Beside the five Shock Lands, I don't see any rare having a strong upside post rotation. Very few Gatecrash rares are played in Eternal formats.

Cards With Potential

Goblins is not really a deck in Modern, but the recent print of Goblin Rabblemaster may change the game. The Loyalist was the success story of this summer, from 0.2 Tix to 5 Tix in two months, and the trend is now downward. It will probably be around 0.2 Tix or less by October and might be a good investment for the future hoping for a Modern Goblins to breakthrough.

Outsiders

At 0.05 Tix, these two cards may be two penny rares worth investing in. Blind Obedience has been spotted in the sideboard of Modern decks and could be played in Legacy and Vintage as well.

Thespian's Stage has been worthless pretty much all the time and received a marginal bump recently. I was buying it several months ago at 0.05 Tix as part of my top 10 cards that could spike from nowhere in Modern. Probably back to 0.05 Tix by October, this will be the opportunity to acquire the Stage at its cheapest. This is one of these cards where every new set could cause an explosion.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thespian's Stage

Dragon's Maze

To me, there're no good opportunities with Dragon's Maze rares after Standard rotation. As discussed last week, there's pretty much one card you want to look at in Dragon's Maze--Voice of Resurgence. The rest is only marginal speculation.

Card With Potential

The Thief is played a little bit in Legacy and Vintage at the moment. Its ability could make it played in Modern at some point though. Being from a third set might be Notion Thief's chance to increase rapidly in value if it does see more play. An interesting bet post rotation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Notion Thief

Outsiders

Two double-cards for two penny rares that could be worth the shot. Breaking // Entering is part of the casual/competitive Modern UB Mill deck. With Delve and some graveyard shenanigans back in Khans of Tarkir, Breaking // Entering could be more valuable than 0.05 Tix in couple of months.

Beck // Call is the combo card that never made it. So far. Also among the top 10 cards I think could be the next big thing in Modern, it would only take a brew from Travis Woo to skyrocket.

M14

I would consider only two rares in M14 post rotation: Scavenging Ooze and Mutavault.

The Ooze was only moderately played in Standard and maintained a 6 to 8 Tix price tag all the way. I expect its price to dip as players get rid of their Standard cards rotating out. It is, however, a solid Modern and Legacy creature that is finding a home in more and more decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

At the opposite end, Mutavault was more than heavily played in Standard, but not so much in Eternal formats. Merfolks being its only dedicated client, Mutavault should drop significantly next October. Nonetheless, it will be a very solid pick for the years to come.

Nothing else.

Did I forget any rare that look promising to you after Standard rotation?

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Khantraband – An Early Look at Khans of Tarkir

Posted on September 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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By now I imagine anybody who pays any attention to Magic at all is aware of what was revealed at the Khans of Tarkir launch party. Spoiler season is just kicking into gear and our first batch was nice.

Unless you were sitting on stacks of Polluted Delta. For Magic as a game, however, everything we know about Khans so far is awesome.

Some Cosmetics

One of the less exciting, though still neat, reveals of the launch party is the new template for a new cycle of charms:

The template is clean and the card is playable if unexciting. If Sultai Charm is any indicator, we'll be paying multiple colors for flexibility rather than power level in Khans, but it's definitely too early to say on that front.

The other sweet change revealed at the launch party is this:

I've definitely seen people wondering what kind of "token" morph creatures are in the past, and something to at least clarify that they're 2/2s is definitely useful. Let's get to the meat and potatoes though.

Wedge Mechanics

Ferocious

The Temur mechanic deals with creatures with four power, not unlike how Naya dealt with creatures with five power. Come to think of it, this mechanic isn't really anything ground breaking at all.

It is more likely to matter in constructed though. Where the Ancients Treat stood no chance in Standard, or even block. Temur Ascendancy, on the other hand, has some appeal.

Fires of Yavimaya was once a constructed mainstay, and I've had decent success with Hammer of Purphoros in my Standard decks.

I could definitely see Temur Ascendancy being played in Standard, though it would take something like a Flametongue Kavu reprint to really get me on board. Even with an enchantment that gives all of your creatures haste, you can still find yourself being too slow against aggressive decks. In particular, tapping out on turn three to not impact the board is troublesome.

Polukranos, World Eater, Arbor Colossus and Boon Satyr could definitely be part of a sweet Temur midrange deck though.

Prowess

Sultai's mechanic screams "limited only" to me, though an efficient threat and some good cantrips could make it happen.

This might be a case of "good cards with prowess are good", while the mechanic itself is forgotten by everybody but draft enthusiasts. We're definitely not about to see a Ponder reprint and this mechanic absolutely doesn't speak for itself, so I'm not exactly excited here.

Raid

Raid is basically upgraded bloodthirst. As such, cards with raid thus far seem a little worse than cards with bloodthirst.

Raid seems slightly more constructable than prowess, if only because creatures with raid play well in creature saturated decks, whereas prowess requires a good mix of spells and creatures. Even still, without a significant raid boost, I'm really not expecting cards with raid to be good--at least those low on the mana curve.

Outlast

The Abzhan outlast mechanic is likely to produce some interesting synergies. The counter-centric theme of the Abzhan is possibly more appealing to Ghave, Guru of Spores Commander decks than Standard, but there's something there.

Outlast cards spoiled thus far have seemed slow and mana intensive, but depending on the sorts of +1/+1-counters-matter cards we see, it could definitely inspire a constructed deck. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes would definitely be awesome in such a deck. Unfortunately, Ajani won't trigger outlast, but he would make any sort of static ability live, such as the one on this guy:

Delve

Now we're talking. Tombstalker has seen Legacy play on and off since it was first printed and Logic Knot shows up in constructed pauper as well. Cost reduction abilities are strong, and unless all of the cards with delve just plainly suck, then I fully expect this mechanic to make a splash in Standard.

Necropolis Fiend is actually very close to Standard playable, if he's not just playable outright. Commune with the Gods alone turns it into a four mana 4/5 flier with upside, assuming that you don't care about he cards in your graveyard. This will contrast with cards like Nighthowler, which is probably just better, but graveyard themes in general are likely to show up in Standard decks post Khans.

FETCHLANDS!

This is obviously the biggest announcement of the bunch, but everybody already knew about this. If you didn't, though... surprise!

The Onslaught fetches are back, and there is no way anything else in this set is bigger than that. They don't exactly play well with scrylands, but they sure are great with delve.

They do a lot more for Modern than they do for Standard, though. I don't just mean in terms of lowering the barrier to buying into Modern either.

Having all of the non-red fetches in Modern makes Blood Moon notably worse. Blood Moon will continue to be played as much as ever in Legacy, but I expect it to take a slight downswing in Modern popularity.It still does work against manlands, Scapeshift and Tron, so if it declines in price it likely won't be by much.

This is more good news for people who want Islands and Swamps or Plains in their deck than bad news for Blood Moon aficionados.

SCG is currently pre-selling the reprints for $20, with the blue ones at $25. You can fully expect these prices to tick down as more and more copies are opened--and believe me, this set will be opened a lot. Both sets of fetchlands were in the $10 range while they were originally in Standard, and the biggest barrier to the reprints hitting this level will be price memory of the originals. If they start to plateau at $15, I would likely buy a set of each, and if they drop all the way to the $10 of days of old, I would easily buy a few extra sets.

Planeswalkers

Sorin

Wow. Sorin may as well have just given up his spark if this is what it's come to. I don't know why any deck that wants this wouldn't just play four mana Ajani. His +1 isn't bad by any means, but he is in every other way underwhelming. He gains a lot of life. I'll say that much.

Sarkhan

The biggest barrier to Sarkhan's playability is Stormbreath Dragon. Going minus three from four is a pretty steep cost, but four damage isn't a bad removal spell when it leaves you with a four power beater. I don't fully expect Sarkhan to see a lot of play out of the gates, but he's absolutely worth looking at after Theros rotates, and even as Stormbreath Dragon number five in the meantime.

I would follow the rule of planeswalkers and not preorder, but intend to pick them up when their price isn't driven by hype. This is maybe an $8 card in the short term.

Other Goodies

End Hostilities

Our new wrath is slow, but it messes up bestow creatures and equipment. This one is going to be excellent in midrange mirrors.

Can this card be worth anything as a regular rare? Eh. Not really. Anger of the Gods will probably see more play and be worth more because it's both playable in Modern and not being opened anymore. I recommend having a set, but waiting until you need to play them.

Rattleclaw Mystic

I don't know if this one is better than Kiora's Follower, but it's generally better than Voyaging Satyr. The option to go from two to four or from three to six is not to be understated. Morphing this guy on turn three (or two with an Elvish Mystic) and this flipping it up to beat down with a newly minted Nissa Worldwaker land is a big game. Turn three or four Elspeth, Sun's Champion is also not outside the realm of possibility. I definitely intend to pick up a set of these.

Icefeather Aven

This card is excellent, and likely to be underrated. A two mana 2/2 flier is excellent, and the upside of using extraneous mana to bounce something is expensive, but it's just free upside so mise. I'm still bullish on Master of Waves, and this is definitely a good two drop for a potential Master of Waves deck.

Sidisi, Brood Tyrant

Commune with the Gods, Nyx Weaver and delve will all help to make this card an awesome role-player. Unfortunately, Sidisi is quite weak to Anger of the Gods, so I'm not about to go crazy on this card. It is relevant that Nemesis of Mortals is pretty awesome against Anger, so maybe this deck is just going to be awesome.

I definitely intend to test this one out, and I won't be the least bit surprised if it turns out to be very strong. It will only have a home in one deck, so I can't say that it's the greatest spec. Unless it turns out to be the best deck. Interpret as you will.

We haven't seen very much of Khans yet, but we've already seen what is very likely the most exciting part. I'm so excited for Return to Ravnica to rotate, and so far it doesn't look like Khans will disappoint. Unless you really hate shuffling.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Khans of Tarkir Spoiler – Utter End

Posted on September 2, 2014September 2, 2014 by Jason Alt

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I don't know if it's worth it to make Vindicate cost 1 more mana if all you get is Instant speed and the ability to exile the permanent instead of just destroying it. You can't even hit a land.

1/10 trash.

OK, obviously this card is nutty. It's maybe a little nuttier than it appears at first glance. Pretend it says "Exile target creature or planeswalker". This is not quite as good as Hero's Downfall in that it costs 1 more mana, but if you think about the deck that is most likely to want it, it is closer than you may think. I'm thinking of this in terms of an esper deck. Now, obviously this block is wanting people to play this in Mardu or Abzan because those are the color combinations the block is supporting. If a deck materializes out of those colors, this gets played there. There is usually a good junk midrange deck so if Temur doesn't get all of the decent 4 power guys, this superior removal is likely there.

However, I think this will impact Esper the most. This is much more castable in Esper than Hero's Downfall is for a few reasons. First of all, we're losing Shock lands. Esper keeps more dual lands than most colors because Esper doesn't mind running out a tapped temple on turn 1 or 2 or both, and Esper is getting both Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta to fix its basics. Getting basics means you're going to want to not have to grab the same basic twice, so costing WB instead of BB is better since it doesn't force you to get two swamps in a deck that basically splashes black. You'll probably end up running some number of Hero's Downfall anyway, but that number may be 0. Since there is a 5 mana wrath that is very good, getting white on 4 and being able to remove a creature or walker is solid.

Additionally, this is more flexible than Hero's Downfall meaning it has more impact in a maindeck spot for a control deck, not forcing them to board in enchantment removal.

This card is nutty and if it hits $10 I won't be surprised. However, hitting that mark will require a lot of adoption. I don't think the new Sorin is good enough to build around, but in a planeswalker control deck that also has Elspeth, you can build a lot of color combinations. This is a removal spell flexible enough to be a 4 of and with a lot of hexproof stuff rotating, I am confident this will see a large amount of play. It likely doesn't replace Vindicate in Legacy, but a spell that would do that would make Standard no fun.

A Junky New Commander?

Posted on September 2, 2014September 2, 2014 by Danny Brown

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Jason introduced us to the Jeskai and Sultai khans, and we've already met the Mardu's Zurgo Helmsmasher, but I've got the fourth khan of the bunch to show you today:

Anafenza, the Foremost is reportedly a card revealed on MTG-jp.com, hence the English mock-up above, kindly provided by Mythic Spoilers.

So I'm not exactly sure what makes this particularly worthy of either mythic rare or legendary status (short of story reasons, of course). A 4/4 for three mana is a lot less impressive in a post-Loxodon Smiter world. Requiring a third color makes this much less efficient than its pachydermic counterpart, so its abilities must be better than Smiter's.

"When Anafenza, the Foremost attacks, put a +1/+1 counter on another target tapped creature you control."

I mean, this is cool. It can pump other attacking creatures, so aggressive decks will like this, although getting a three-drop requiring three different colors of mana out is not necessarily in aggro's wheelhouse. It can also pump tapped utility creatures, although that seems less important unless you're trying to get them out of burn range or something.

"If a creature card would be put into an opponent's graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead."

This isn't exactly exciting, but it might be relevant against delve and other graveyard shenanigans. It will certainly hose any kind of reanimator strategies that might pop up over the next 18 months.

I'm not saying this card isn't good, because it probably is. The stats are relatively pushed and the abilities are relevant if not awe-inspiring. But what an unexciting design. It just kind of mixes up card abilities we've seen in one form or another before, all on a creature that doesn't appear to have much of an identity.

Is this good enough for Commander? There will certainly be those who build this deck, but my first thought is that it's not splashy or powerful enough for a 40-life, multiplayer format. If this card has any financial value in the next year or so, it will likely be derived from Standard play. Whether than happens will depend very much on what decks are popular. Rest assured that the khans of each clan of Tarkir will be in the public eye, so we'll have an idea before too long.

Insider: Fetchlands in Modern

Posted on September 2, 2014January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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So when I was mentally planning this article, I was going to show this pic...

...and say, "Did you all see this?"

But I Didn't Do That Exactly

Because of course you did. Who pays for a QS subscription then throws their phone into a lake during the PAX spoilers? People whose families made them go camping over Labor Day weekend* I guess. Still, by now you're aware. And you're probably happy as balls about this development. I realize it looks like a photoshop, but it's true--we're getting Onslaught fetches in Khans, because why wouldn't they reprint them right after printing painlands?

I guess the conversation went something like this:

Guy #1 - Boss! Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn are $100 at the Legacy GP! What do we do?

Guy #2 - It's simple. We reprint Bloodstained Mire.

Guy#1 - These are great ideas are why you're in charge of MODO implementation!

All (some of) jokes aside, the Onslaught fetches are a welcome addition to a Standard format that is getting three-color wedges to build around. Standard has been written about a ton, and until we get a full spoiler I'm not inclined to post a ton about the impact of the fetches on that format.

This reduces the need for Mana Confluence to an extent that a potato cannon fired at an Abrams tank is an apt comparison to the effect it will have on Confluence's soaring price. That's not to say not at all, but three-color decks will want Confluence even with the ability to fetch for the basic you need.

People will also shuffle a lot, and if you weren't around for Zendikar block, it's a pain, especially if you're playing against a guy who won't let you resolve two fetches at once, preferring to make you sufficiently randomize and present the deck to him for a cut before you can search for a second land. You're about to find out who at your LGS is a dickhead in the first FNM.

Who Cares About Standard Right Now?

That's what I was basically driving at. We're going to get new decks, and the fetches will help those new decks. I could speculate on the likelihood of Zendikar fetches being reprinted in this block, but I don't want to even go on record. It's a "lose-don't win scenario" wherein people will make a huge deal out of it if I guess wrong (I guess the "experts" aren't quite as good at this as they think) and if I'm right, I get a bunch of "Duh, everyone knew that would happen".

No thanks. I don't have enough evidence, and I don't think there is anything actionable to do to benefit from guessing right anyway, besides selling your Zen fetches to buy them cheaper later, and if you didn't sell them when Misty Rainforest was $100, you lost more value not doing that than you'll likely make up by selling now for $35 on the buylist.

So let's talk about Khanslaught fetches, not Zendikar fetches.

Instead of talking about Standard, let's talk about the format where they've never been legal.

[Insert "Modern" Pun Here]

Khanslaught fetches have never been legal in Modern. Relatively new as far as formats go, Modern has enjoyed Zendikar fetches and shocks, but Blood Moon has pulled pants down for quite a while. When Mono-Blue starts running Blood Moon, you know a card is good in a format.

Some decks could avoid getting pantsed by Blood Moon better than others, and a non-trivial part of that was their ability to use a fetchland to fetch a relevant basic land. If a UWR control deck drew an Arid Mesa or Scalding Tarn, they were in good shape. If a Jund deck drew Misty Rainforest, they might not be in such good shape. Still, was a Jund deck that drew a Misty better or worse off than an UWR deck that needed an Island and drew a Mesa? Will more fetches really be the panacea Modern needs?

I actually think they will have quite an effect on the format vis-a-vis Blood Moon and a non-trivial part of that will simply be the fact that decks are going to run more basics. Jund didn't have a great way to tutor for Mountain and now it has two. Granted, Misty Rainforest doesn't need to tutor for a Mountain to bail you out against Blood Moon.

We could go into how much getting increased access to a splash color helps the best decks in the format. I don't really want to spend a ton of time on that. Do we need to devote ink to how much Flooded Strand is going to make UWR marginally better? Is there money to be made anticipating the best decks staying good? I'd rather spend some time talking about improvements to decks that aren't as good.

U/B Mill

U/B mill is a bit of a non-deck that has a bit of a wonky manabase. The introduction of Polluted Delta to Modern could really have a positive effect on the consistency of the deck.

It's not top-eighting GPs or winning dailies, but it's the kind of deck casuals want to play with, and if the manabase can be made a bit more consistent for cheap, there is a chance someone on the fence about Modern could jump in. A bad deck getting better can be just as important as a good deck getting better, especially if there are cheap cards in the deck.

This deck isn't performing all that well despite being a ton of fun to play, and improvements to this deck's own manabase aren't the only thing it will have going for it post-Khans. More fetches for everyone means more fetching in general. Sure, you can get an Island for that Turn 1 Thought Scour, but your opponent has Polluted Delta for that Turn 1 Sleight of Hand and you can be ready to pulls his pants down with Archive Trap. Splash damage doesn't always have to be a bad thing.

Actionables

I might keep an eye on Archive Trap. It's a brutal card and more fetching could make it spike if it catches on. Honestly, mill cards are never a bad investment--even mill cards that were bad when they were legal in Standard are good places to sock your money. Modern Masters 2 could be an issue but I literally can't keep mill cards in my case at the LGS.

Archive Trap is going to climb steadily--unless it spikes sharply. I like it as a no-risk pickup with high upside. Trap could potentially get jammed in boards for the control mirror, also like it has been in Standard formats past. Still, the card will climb even if none of that happens. The best part? Traders undervalue Archive Trap.

Zoo

Zoo is pretty good, but it's underrepresented in the format. The unbanning of Wild Nacatl is relatively recent but there have been plenty of events since then and old Zoo adherents are looking forward to more chances to get there. An increase in Zoo adoption is one of the reasons Goblin Guide has increased in price a bit lately (although not the primary driver).

Getting both Windswept Heath and Wooded Foothills is solid for the deck. Not only that, in a world with more fetches, decks that can use Aven Mindcensor as more than just a sideboard hoser (attacking with a flier with flash is a decent way to kill them with dudes, which is Zoo's mandate) are set up to benefit.

Actionables

Mindcenser costs so much money already. If there is a Modern Masters 2 with no Mindcensor, I'm going to really start questioning Wizards' ability to pay attention to what we need as players. Of course, Mindcensor could go up short-term. Still, I'm not buying in at $12 hoping to make $2 with a reprint seeming so likely.

However, there is an underpriced card that I think will benefit from Zoo getting more and better fetches. Have you spotted it? Knight of the Reliquary. Knight is great in a deck that runs fetches and I think it gets better when your fetches are better. You can jam even more than before plus run fewer shocks and more basics. Wild Nacatl improves non-trivially in a world with fetches as well, but I feel like he's overpriced to the same extent that Knight of the Reliquary is underpriced.

Not only in Zoo, you could see Knight get there in another shell. I imagine that other shell will involved Lotus Cobra. Cobra is bugnutty and underplayed right now. Some financiers called Cobra on twitter a while back but it's been solidly $6 +/- $1 for quite a while. Better fetches could be what a cobra deck wants. I see potential upside to Cobra, and $6 for a Modern-playable mythic would not be close to correct, especially given how much Goblin Guide is, being a non-mythic from the same set, albeit one getting played a lot more.

Could Eldrazi Conscription get there buoyed by Windswept Heath and Flooded Strand? Hard to say, but either way, you'll want Knight of the Reliquary, and the Knights vs. Dragons foil is bafflingly cheap. I imagine if this gets more play, the Modern Masters reprint won't attenuate the price as much as it is doing now. This is demonstrably a $10 card, even with extra copies. Being a four-of in the decks that will want it help its case a lot.

Esper/Grixis Control

I couldn't even find a list for this because it's so not a deck.

Control decks are all basically UWR right now. Is it because you have Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel and Lightning Bolt and who needs cards that aren't those cards? Is it because the deck enjoys the consistency afforded it by the availability of both Scalding Tarn and Arid Mesa and the unavailability of Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta?

We're about to find out. Esper Control could become a thing, and cards that go in Esper Control would thus be things. What are they? I don't know, it's not a deck. If I had to point to cards that would go in an Esper list that aren't being played in control currently I would say Creeping Tar Pit, Esper Charm and Baneslayer Angel are the cards I'd point to. Inquisition of Kozilek and Thoughtseize could see more play than they do now, but we're looking at cards seeing next to no play.

Grixis gets Bloodstained Mire and Polluted Delta, which is very good. This, however, doesn't really help the deck cast Cruel Ultimatum and Cryptic Command if that's what it wants to do. I am less bullish on Grixis, unless it resembled some of the Bitterblossom-based Grixis decks we've seen.

With 'Blossom, you'll want to take less damage from your mana, not more, but getting untapped basics over fetches should mitigate the extra fetching you do. Creeping Tar Pit gets jammed in this deck.

Actionables

Really, Celestial Colonnade is the manland being run in Modern right now. Polluted Delta could make a few more blue-black decks happen, and if those are control decks, Tar Pit likely gets jammed.

Look at Celestial Colonnade's price and look how much cheaper Tar Pit is right now. It's 60% of the price of Colonnade with no justification for it current price. Imagine it gets played more--it could easily enjoy the $18ish Colonnade is enjoying right now. Modern Masters 2 looms, but the last time Modern Masters printed a cycle of lands, they had the word "vivid" in them. I think Tar Pit has upside, though buying in north of $10 always sucks for such a recent non-mythic with no real results.

Faeries

I hate Faeries. That said, their mana base could improve.

Faeries is a reason to run Mutavault in Modern, and without a higher degree of adoption in Modern, Mutavault will likely drop quite a bit in the next few weeks. This is another chance for Tar Pit to see as much play as Colonnade, which is good.

Again, fetching for a Swamp kind of sucks in a Cryptic Command deck, but making sure you get black for early Bitterblossom and play untapped lands your first few turns is paramount in a deck like this. You could jam a swamp or two which would give you black mana if they Moon you, which happens.

Actionables

Not a ton here, other than Tar Pit which we already discussed. Mistbind Clique is a card that hype had made $25 and reality has made $9. That's a high buy-in, but Faeries proving itself could make the card approach $15-$20 if hype is to be believed. However, that was $25 at the same time Bitterblossom was $75 and those prices are demonstrably farcical.

Dark Horses

Lots of very good decks are about to get better mana. Pod decks having Heath and/or Foothills are excited. UWR Control gets Strand, Tarmotwin and its goofy manabase gets Foothills and Jund gets Mire and Foothills, because why not? Still, there isn't a ton of money to be made on 1:1 bets. I'm betting on dark horses because I don't think better manabases is going to make cards that are suddenly easier to cast go down in price.

What do you think? Got a few safe calls based on the new fetches? Leave them in the comments section and I'll watch you argue with each other.

Until next week!

*For our non-American readers, Labor Day is a celebration of the basic rights the labor unions got for workers in this country like five-day work weeks and the right not to work in textile factories with padlocks on the fire exits. Every Summer we take a Monday off of work to thank the unions before going back to blaming them for the country's economic decline. It's a nice tradition and you get to sleep in on a Monday.

Khans of Tarkir Trailer

Posted on September 2, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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This has been out for a few days now, but I thought it was worth sharing for those who may not have seen it.

Wizards of the Coast has been doing these teaser trailers for a while now, and I have to say they're getting better every time. I'm not sure how they make all the cool effects we see in the videos, but it's enough for me to see that they are doing it. I can appreciate how cool it is as-is.

And trust me, it is.

I have to say that the trailer for Khans of Tarkir is the best yet, and you can find the full video here.

Khans of Tarkir Spoilers – PAX weekend

Posted on September 1, 2014September 2, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Sweet sassy molassy! Did we ever get gifts over the weekend.

An issue with our WordPress account left me unable to update all weekend, as much as the spoilers made my fingers itch. Let's get into it now.

These get entire articles, but I'd be remiss if I didn't include them at least. These are a thing.

Ugin's Nexus

Please don't try and play this with Shrapnel Blast in Standard.

This card is weird because all of the EDH-playing financiers I know say things like "This card is insane in my (insert their general) deck! I can't wait until these are $0.50!" $3 Chasm Skulker tells me that cards targeted by EDH-playing financiers don't go down as quickly as people might think. They may never go down to cheap enough to pick up the way Skulker hasn't. I like this in EDH a lot, but it's junk outside of those formats. Either way, you absolutely do not preorder this.

End Hostilities

Suck it, Chromanticore.

So we don't get a 4 mana Wrath, but getting a 5 mana one that can deal with bestow guys and equipment is solid. I don't think this is likely to get played in EDH all that much but I could be wrong. Nailing their equipment if they're playing Voltron could be appealing, although for 5 mana I'd rather Hallowedly Bury their general. We don't have that many good wraths in Standard so this likely gets the nod over Fated Retribution. As far as potential price, I have no idea. My math is being thrown off by anticipating this selling all of the boxes.

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lots of people hate this guy and lots of people love him. The card he is most commonly compared to is Stormbreath Dragon. I don't know if having an ultimate that gives you a Grafted Skullcap is worth building to, but being able to Char something is super relevant in red. It's rare that you want to preorder a planeswalker, and I'm not wowed by Sarkhan to the extent that I would advise you to break that rule.

Sorin, Solemn Visitor

People are really divided on this guy, too. His ultimate is grindier, but the biggest difference between this Sorin and the planeswalker called Sorin that he's nearly identical to is the fact that his -2 protects him while the +1 on other Sarkhan did that. I would have to see the rest of the set, but this seems weaker than the other Sorin and even that one wouldn't have been a good idea to preorder.

Narset, Enlightened Master

This card is bonkers. If you play creatureless with Proteus Staff you will be set upon and murdered by every other player at the table, or at least they'll try. The amount of value you're going to get from having this as your general is ridiculous. This is the best Legendary wedge creature in the set and it's not close. Zurgo can smash helms but this vomits value better than Maelstrom Wanderer. You want this in foil if it's cracked at your prerelease. This is preordering for $6 and that may be just about right, but longterm I really like this, especially in foil. I think if you can get foils for under $25 you do it without question.

Sidisi, Blood Tyrant

Eww. The more I read this, the less I like it. This is not going to unseat Damia as the BUG general of choice, and having to attack to trigger its ability is pretty weak on a 3/3. You don't want to build this Voltron, either. If you mill 3 creatures you only get 1 zombie and that's not the best value unless what you're trying to do is fill your yard to reanimate. I don't see potential here like I do with the other generals, and EDH players are pretty disappointed with Sidisi. I think if this does get broken, it will be after it goes down from its presale price.

Temur Ascendency

I have no idea about this card yet. If Temur gives us good midrange dudes or produces a lot of tokens, this could really get there. A Fires of Yavimaya with upside is welcome in certain builds. Meanwhile I have 3 RUG EDH decks and none of them want this. However, people playing the same generals are excited. That tells me this has EDH potential, but it's highly subjective so it's far from a staple. That's going to hurt its upside.

Howl of the Horde

Triggering Raid on this will be a bit clunky, and this won't help you remove blockers, which is mostly what you want to do with spells in red decks where you attack. I don't like this much in Standard as powerful as it is just because it's so clunky. In EDH, there are effects better than this in red.

Dragon-Style Twins

While Mardu is trying to get you to cast your spells post-combat to trigger raid, Jeskai wants you to cast them pre-combat to trigger Prowess. Burning a blocker out of the way to get in there with a 4/4 double striker appeals to me. This is the best case I've seen for prowess so far.

Duneblast

You better hope the scale of the Dragon protects you well if you're going to wait until 7 mana to cast a wrath. Obviously this is how you're going to kill people in EDH, though. A certain Guru of Spores could likely benefit from having the battlefield all to himself. I'm not sure it's not too narrow to have upside even with EDH scenarios like that presenting themselves. I think this will be bulk for a while.

Crackling Doom

I don't know what the Mardu charm is yet, but I already know I like it more than I like this card. Still, it's less conditional than a typical edict effect and doming them for two on top of it is non-trivial. We'll have to see if Mardu is worth playing. I don't know if this wants to be maindeck, but at $1 for preorder, SCG is betting this is less good than some people seem to think.

Herald of Anafenza

Eh. It's really slow. I'm not wowed by this guy in EDH, but he could be good in limited. If you can do something with the tokens, he could even get there in Standard. Ticking him up is slow and mana-intensive, but getting additional value out of it make it less of a blowout if they doom blade him and you have more to show for it than a 3/3 you paid 7 mana for. Also, outlast is a sorcery, further limiting its upside. All in all, this looks like a bulk rare to me.

Insider: Reprinted Onslaught Fetch Lands and How New Spoilers Influence My Portfolio

Posted on September 1, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Big News! At last we have some new spoilers for Khans of Tarkir. With this information in hand, including some of the set’s mechanics, we can finally begin to speculate on what the new Standard may look like so that we can profit.

Or, at least, that’s the plan.

Nothing is a guarantee, but as we continue to learn more, the task at hand will become easier. Of course, profit margins will decline over time as well. Those who jump onto the right bandwagon earliest will profit the most. They take on the most risk too, though, so don’t feel obligated to join the early adopter crowd. I often find that waiting for the first major tournament of the new Standard and buying based on those results still nets me ample profits.

This week I will establish my baseline heading into the new Standard season, with heavy emphasis on my favorite focus area. With all the information we currently have up through last Sunday morning, these are my stances on where my Standard funds are allocated. Things are always subject to change based on new information – it is spoiler week after all.

Nonetheless, I am confident that my conservative approach will yield positions heading into the coming weeks that will only strengthen.

A Look at Real Estate

My conservative, low risk approach to Standard speculation always starts with the most ubiquitous component of Magic: lands. Real Estate continues to be a robust investment strategy in MTG Finance and this fall’s Standard metagame should be no exception.

So far we have two significant data points that indicate what the real estate market will look like come rotation. First, we know that there will be a heavy reliance on mana fixing in order to support all these sweet (although cumbersomely costed) shard-based spells. In order to reliably cast Crackling Doom or all the sweet new “charms” we are likely to get, we’ll need to make sure we have access to all of our colors in the early game.

Mana fixing will be absolutely crucial in this environment. I’m also starting to wonder if the new Standard will be a much slower format in order to encourage players to run splashy tri-colored cards. If so, then I definitely still love Theros block temples.

I also picked up a few more Mana Confluence this past weekend – I think having untapped lands that still provide mana flexibility is going to be important, and Mana Confluence does just that. Plus it was printed in Journey into Nyx, which indicates to me the number of copies will be relatively limited.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Confluence

Speaking of untapped mana-fixing lands, that brings me to the second major piece of news delivered to players last weekend: Onslaught fetches are back!

This is a major development in the world of MTG Finance. These are (were) nearly $100 blue fetch lands that are now being re-deployed into Standard and newly introduced into Modern. Much like the Shock Land reprint of Return to Ravnica block, the new artworks on these fetches will ensure the original printings maintain a premium.

Nonetheless, this will dilute the market drastically, likely halving the price of originals in the short term. As for these newly printed copies, I have a tough time seeing these maintain a price tag much over $12 after they’re opened for months. Being printed at rare means there will be plenty of these to go around. Patience will be rewarded here, but I’ll admit I am dying to get my set of Deltas so I can complete my Legacy ANT deck once and for all!

Between pain lands, fetch lands, temples, and Mana Confluence, I am confident there will be plenty of mana-fixing available to support the new Standard format. All of these will be in ample demand. While some will definitely appreciate in price more than others depending on the metagame, I don’t think you can lose money by focusing funds on the backbone of Magic: the real estate.

As an aside, by introducing Onslaught fetches into Modern, the value of Zendikar fetches are likely to drop. Players can stop playing suboptimal fetch lands in their Modern decks in favor of the appropriately colored ones.

For example, Misty Rainforest was a fine role-player in Melira-Pod because of the need to generate green mana turn one. But with the introduction of Windswept Heath in Modern, you can bet that the blue/green fetch land won’t be necessary anymore. Demand for the Zendikar fetches will definitely drop, and the price will soon follow. Plan accordingly.

A Cautious Glance Elsewhere

My conservative style predisposes me to focus on the mana-fixing lands for investment opportunity. Because of this focus, I tend to neglect other opportunities when considering where to invest for the new Standard. I recognize this tradeoff of risk and reward and I am perfectly OK with it.

That being said, I am still very cautious about buying cards that could only fit into certain deck types. Some players are clearly onboard the Keranos, God of Storms bandwagon. This is evidenced by the recent spike.

I know this god has shown strength as a 1-of or 2-of in Modern and Legacy, but I don’t think a 100% gain is justified solely based on this. My guess is there are some who think Keranos will find a ready home in Standard. Personally, I don’t think this is anywhere close to a guarantee.

Following my own advice, I sold into the hype making a solid gain on the sparse couple of copies I owned of the blue/red god. The new price tag of $15 leaves much less upside unless Keranos defines a dominant strategy in the new Standard. This isn’t a bet I like to make.

Speaking of gods, I find my attitude towards them all is the same. Until they demonstrate potential in the new Standard, I don’t plan on acquiring. I am confident at least a couple will stand out and therefore rise in price. Once again my strategy will be to buy those gods after they’ve proven themselves.

If I’m quick enough (and I plan to be quick enough), I’ll still be able to buy in at the base of a spike, yielding me ample profits on a quick flip. In the meantime, I’d much rather sit on cash rather than a load of inventory not knowing which gods will actually be playable going forward.

But believe me, when the time comes to buy based on the new strategies, I will definitely be in the forefront acquiring liberally.

The Rest

There are plenty of other targets to consider: all the Planeswalkers, Thoughtseize, Herald of Torment, Courser of Kruphix, etc. Jace, the Living Guildpact’s +1 ability is a cute combo with Delve, which is reappearing in Khans. But the blue Planeswalker is still very unproven.

Rather than try to buy every single card that may increase in price, I much prefer a focused strategy. There’s value in diversification, but I don’t see a purpose to spreading myself too thin here. If I am truly confident in temples and Mana Confluence, putting my eggs into other baskets just feels reckless. It’s like having very high confidence in a horse but then spreading bets on other inferior horses just because they have a chance. Be strategic, follow your instincts and the profits will follow.

If you insist on speculating elsewhere, I would suggest taking a longer look at Courser of Kruphix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Courser of Kruphix

This guy was already a solid creature before, but with fetch lands in Standard he becomes very well-positioned. His triggered ability replaces your life payment when you crack your fetches. If you don’t like the top card of your deck, then fetching will also net you a shuffle so you can roll the dice again. Courser is very powerful with fetches.

Despite this, I still own zero. I may pick up a couple here and there, but there’s still significant risk to this bet. He needs to be in a deck with some heavy focus on green and I’m not sure if the right support cast exists in the new Standard. It’s possible that Courser just gets blown out by some new cards in Khans.

Therefore my conclusion remains unchanged: I’d much rather wait to see Courser prove itself and then buy rather than speculate now and take on unnecessary risk. My upside is reduced, but there will be ample profitability even for those who wait.

…

Sigbits – Biggest Losers

This week I thought I’d try something different. Based on the latest spoilers for Khans of Tarkir, these are cards I anticipate will lose out the most.

Obviously losers 1-5 are all the allied-color fetch lands. I expect them all to halve in price rather quickly. Star City Games already has Onslaught Polluted Deltas at $59.99, well off their triple digit peak! Expect this downward trend to continue.
All the shard-based cards in Khans will require some heavy mana fixing commitment. Unfortunately I don’t like where this leaves Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. Foils are still fine, and the card will eventually be a great pickup for EDH play. But for now, Star City Games has over 30 copies of nonfoils in stock at $4.99 and I don’t see that price moving higher for months. Avoid these until they near rotation, when they will be nice pickups for the long haul.
Mono Black Devotion is a very powerful deck in the current Standard. But once rotation happens, it’s “goodbye Nightveil Specter, goodbye Pack Rat, and goodbye Desecration Demon”. Unless there are equally strong replacements for these (which I doubt), I don’t know if I like Erebos, God of the Dead or his whip heading into the fall. These have already gotten quite cheap, but I see little upside from SCG’s $6.99 price tag based on what we know so far.

Who Wants More Silver-Bordered Sets?

Posted on September 1, 2014August 29, 2014 by Danny Brown

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If you are a reader of Mark Rosewater's Blogatog or a listener of his podcast, Drive to Work, then you hear a lot about the Un-sets. Over the last three weeks, DtW has focused on going through every card in Unhinged, and Blogatog has silver-bordered questions almost every day. Rosewater is convinced it's just a matter of time until the third Un-set.

I'm here to ask QS readers if they have any interest in such a thing. While Blogatog might lead us to believe that silver-bordered sets have a wide audience, I have a simple piece of (admittedly anecdotal) evidence to suggest the contrary:

I Have Never Seen a Silver-Bordered Card in Play

I've been playing since 1995 or so, and despite being an active Magic player in middle school, when Unglued came out, I have never bought a single pack of silver-bordered cards. I've seen them in trade binders before, but I've never seen them in play (the only exception being a Booster Tutor in a friend's cube).

As a thought exercise, Un-sets can be intriguing to the established Magic player. It's fun to look through the spoiler and see what kind of cultural references and Magic-specific jokes Rosewater and his team can come up with. But when it comes to actually owning the cards, there are only ten across all of Unglued and Unhinged that most established players want:

Other than the gorgeous full-art basics in these sets, most established Magic players I know don't care about Un-sets. You can't use silver-bordered cards in tournaments. You can't use them in most casual games, for that matter! I have never seen or been part of a playgroup that ever used these cards.

So are these sets just for kitchen-table players? If a third Un-set was printed, I would personally look through the spoiler, trade for all the full-art lands I could, and move on with my life. Is there anyone out there who would legitimately want to buy a product like this? Or do most readers agree that it doesn't serve much purpose other than a few laughs? Sound off in the comments—I'm really interested what the community thinks of these products.

All the Invitational Cards Ever Printed

Posted on August 30, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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The Invitational was an old tournament Wizards of the Coast used to run, where the winner would get to design a card for future printing. It's a pretty cool concept but one that was eventually left behind, even though it has a spiritual successor in Star City's Invitational tournaments allowing the winner to get their own token.

Well, someone's now done us the favor of putting all the cards in one place for easy viewing. You can find the album here.

Insider: Setting Goals with MTGO Speculation

Posted on August 30, 2014January 17, 2022 by Alexander Carl

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Why are you buying MTGO cards right now? You should know the answer to that question.

It’s a deceptively simple one. "I need them for my deck." "I think they will go up." "I want to make money." But behind this simple question is a larger question that each of us need to answer: What are your goals with MTGO?

Setting goals is an important step in achieving them. When it comes to MTGO finance, most of us never stop to think about where we are going.

Though I never clearly articulated it, my goal, when I started two years ago, was to play MTGO for free. I was sick of spending money on the game and saw the MTGO model as something of a racket. I loved the convenience MTGO offered, but did not want to have to keep sinking money into each new set.

I’ve met my goal, and surpassed it, but doing so required an upfront investment of capital and a sustained investment of time. Was it worth it? From a financial perspective there is no doubt. Earlier this summer I cashed out my initial investment of several thousand dollars via PayPal while retaining an MTGO account that allows me to play (or trade for) any deck in any format. My account surplus will let me buy into future sets and will allow me to draft without worrying too much about the negative EV (though I still stress about it—that must be in my nature...)

I achieved this with a modest up front investment and with an average of five hours a week tracking and managing my portfolio (this time commitment waxed and waned.)

For me, that’s enough. I’ve made thousands of tickets with little in the way of real “work,” but it hasn’t been free money either. This isn’t my job, and in many ways it has been a distraction from family and career, the things that matter most to me. It has significantly reduced the amount of time I have available to actually play Magic, which is why I got into this in the beginning. Picking specs is a lot of fun, but managing a large portfolio has elements of drudgery.

Knowing what kind of time and capital you want to invest in this game is important, and should guide the targets you set for yourself. Here are some reasonable MTGO goals along with an overview of the time and money that it will take you to get there. Each is reasonable but will take a different level of commitment.

Goal: Draft for Free

You are fundamentally a limited player on MTGO, but hate how much it costs. You’re good enough to win your share of matches, but never enough to break even. You’ve turned to speculation to generate some income to offset the “slow bleed,” as Ryan Spain once called it.

Maybe you started paying attention to MTGO prices when you got burned selling cards too early or too late. Now you understand how the economy works and you wait for the optimum moment to sell your singles and boosters. Since you’re on MTGO a significant amount of time each week the opportunity costs are low—you buy and sell cards between rounds, and this can generate a small income that allows you to stay net positive.

This is an imminently obtainable goal. Depending on how much you draft and what your win rate is, you can pretty easily calculate what your “burn rate” is for MTGO via www.magicEV.com:

In the example above, a 50% win rate means you are shedding 5 tix a draft on M15, 4 tix on VMA, and 2 tix on THS. A higher win rate will reduce the cost of each draft, but note that you need an unrealistic 67% win rate at M15 before you break even. (See my previous article on the challenges of going infinite via draft.)

So, assuming you are not a Pro Tour caliber player, being a regular drafter is going to cost you money. Let's say you average two drafts a week with an average loss of 4 tix per draft (because you alternate formats). That's going to cost you about 400 tix per year.

That's a fair chunk of change, but can be pretty easily offset with an investment portfolio. Depending on how active you are, and how the markets break, you can net 400 tix a year with an initial investment of 500-1000 tix, a little bit of time, and close attention to the QS Forums.

In fact, for this type of speculation, a “booster only” strategy can get you where you want to go. You are not especially interested in Standard decks, so recreating a whole collection online is not a goal. If you mix a combination of booster specs (which are a steady and secure income) with some high-upside picks that present themselves once in a while you should be just fine.

There are four or five booster "cycles" a year, and each one offers roughly a 15-20% profit. I went back to my spreadsheet and in 2013, for example, there was M14 (which I bought at 2.9 tix, sold at 3.4 tix), GTC (bought at 2.9, sold at 3.5), RTR (bought at 3.38 sold at 3.92). I never found an investment window on DGM but I did find a window on Rise of the Eldrazi flashbacks (bought at 3.03, sold at 3.5).

Let's say that at the start of the year you invest in 500 tix worth of boosters. You follow the forums to find the right time to buy in and to sell. When you sell you then reinvest in whichever booster is undervalued.

If you can make a 15% profit each time your portfolio will quickly compound:

500 -> 575 -> 661 -> 760 -> 874 -> 1005

Within five booster cycles you have doubled your money on boosters alone. There is a time cost to this investment as well, since it takes a while to move 200 boosters. But if you are on MTGO anyway it is something you can do between rounds.

Goal: Build a Few Standard Decks

You are a constructed player in paper and want to be able to test online. You don’t want to have to recreate your whole collection on MTGO, but would like to have a few decks that you can play regularly to get in your reps and stay on top of the metagame.

Or maybe you read my article earlier this year about “going infinite by playing Constructed” and want to take advantage of the favorable terms MTGO offers to constructed players. But your online collection is pretty meager, so you are basically starting from scratch; you’ve built one of the “budget decks” but are missing some key cards to take it to the next level. Plus you don’t want to be tied to one sole deck—you want to be able to afford a couple Standard decks and have a small bankroll so you can weather a cold streak without reaching for your credit card.

Let’s say your goal is to build a couple tier 1 Standard decks. You’ll need 300 to 700 tix to do so based on Standard deck prices at MTGO Goldfish. Once you achieve that goal, if you are a decent constructed player you should be able to go infinite by gaming alone (so long as you are prudent with your tix and don’t blow your stack on drafts.)

If your preference is Standard you’ll need to stay on top of rotation cycles to avoid depreciation, and there will be some transaction costs involved. If you can afford a Modern or Legacy deck (initial investments of 500 to 1000 tix per deck) you don’t need to worry as much about this.

One of the nice things about this strategy is that, if implemented properly, you can actually play with your portfolio while you are building its value. This is not an ideal scenario—it’s best to keep your investment cards separate from your decks if possible, since it helps you make decisions on a more rational basis—but if you have a smaller portfolio it may be necessary.

This was a big part of my strategy starting out, and it helped me get a jump on my investment goals. There is something satisfying about seeing the value of your collection grow and working your way toward more powerful decks.

Goal: Draw Some Net Income

For a number of people, MTGO is a significant source of income (Paul Nemeth mentioned this in his interview.) Or maybe you are using your MTGO profits to subsidize your paper Magic collection.

The challenge with this goal is that drawing cash from your earnings means that your principal won’t grow. And if you hit a rough patch your principal could drop low enough that you miss out on investment opportunities. It’s easiest to sell off your liquid investments—tix and packs—but you want to make sure you retain enough liquidity to continue to generate revenues.

If regular income is your goal, you’ll want want to set a target for your monthly “cash out”. How much income do you want to generate, and how often do you plan to turn your virtual cards into hard currency?

You will also need to figure out how you want to sell your cards. There are three basic ways to get cash from cards: 1) Sell tix, either to people or to bots--going rate is usually 0.95 dollars per tix; 2) Sell a collection of cards directly to a bot (MTGO Traders and Cardbot, for example, will bid dollars for your collection; 3) Redeem sets and sell the paper sets on eBay.

All of these are viable options, and which you pursue will depend on how much time you have to invest. Sylvain's excellent article on this provides much more detail on how to cash out.

Goal: Make a Living Via MTGO

This is a tall order: pay the bills with a virtual card game. But it can be done.

To succeed you will need a bot chain. Magic speculation is time consuming, and the number of small transactions you will need to execute each month to pay the rent are beyond the reach of human hands. It’s possible to make high margin investments without a bot, but doing so exposes you to risks that you probably don’t want to take if this is your primary source of income.

There are a number of different bot models and bot businesses. There are full service bots connected with a large web inventory. There are bots that exist primarily to acquire complete sets that can be redeemed and sold into the paper market. There are booster-only bots and Standard-only bots and Legacy and Eternal specialists. There are bots that seek to always have the lowest prices and those that seek lower volume and higher margin.

Almost all these strategies are profitable. Finding the right niche in the market that meets your time constraints, provides cash flow, and allows you to achieve your profit goals is key. MTGO Traders is the industry leader, and Heath recently used MTGO profits to acquire a building worth $1.3 million.

But building his business required years of hard work and operating at scale—he has 17 full time employees, including eight MTGO buyers. (You can read about his business here.)

Of course, if your costs of living are low you might be able to make it happen. In many parts of the world, if you can generate five hundred dollars a month in profit you can live a middle class lifestyle. That’s an entirely achievable goal if you start with an adequate bankroll.

Conclusion

Take a minute and think about your goals. How much revenue do you want to make via MTGO this year? What would success look like? And how far are you willing to go to achieve it?

On a personal note, this summer I achieved the goal I set for myself. With my current collection and stash of boosters I feel that I can play Magic Online indefinitely without investing another dollar into this game. Magic investment has never been about making money for me so much as it has been about not spending it and about having fun. That said, I have a lot going on in my life and I want to reduce the time and energy I put into managing my virtual collection.

As a result, I will be stepping back for a while from MTGO finance. I’ll still participate in the forums and may write an article once in a while, but I won’t be as active as I have been within this community.

It’s been a lot of fun working with you all as I build my collection, and I hope you are able to meet your goals. Focus on what matters, invest wisely and, most importantly, have fun.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

Insider: Vintage Super League & MTGO Vintage Champs

Posted on August 30, 2014January 17, 2022 by Scott Fielder

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Randy Buehler has, once again, shown that he is still a genius when it comes to Magic. Recently the first week of the Vintage Super League took place. This league is made up of 10 competitors in a round robin tournament, choosing a deck to pilot and switching decks every three weeks. This league is stacked to say the least, with three hall of famers, three Platinum pros and future hall of famers and four Vintage aficionados.

With all of the trolling and wondering what the pros were going to play, everyone knowing that Rich Shay was going to be on Grixis Welder, to wondering how one should go about choosing their first deck, there were many questions as to how the players would strategize. There hasn’t been anything like this, specifically having to change decks within the same format, with high profile players like these.

Would any of them prepare together? Would any of the players deviate from the pillars of Vintage and look to build a deck that would surprise everyone or would everyone just play a blue deck? With all of this anticipation, the first week took place and it did not disappoint.

What’s Everyone Playing?

Thankfully, Randy Buehler posted a link on his Twitter with a Google document with the week one decklists for all the players.

Surprisingly there were three players who decided to play Merfolk in week one. This tells us that people were not expecting many people to play Shops and definitely did not think anybody would be playing Dredge. Looking at the rest of the decks in the field, Merfolk was a very good choice for the first three weeks, but as per usual in Vintage, matchups are not everything.

With so many powerful cards in the format having a good matchup isn’t always enough and a 1-2 finish for Merfolk the first week in a field full of blue and combo is evidence of this. Vintage is the No Limit Texas Hold ‘em of Magic. You can be in a dominating position and still lose it all, just like that and the swings can be unbearable at times.

Although I will say that I am in no way surprised that the two players who won their “bad matchup” were Stephen Menendian and Rich Shay. I thought that their knowledge of the format would give them a huge edge and there is no way they would try anything cute, but there was a chance somebody else might.

Josh Utter-Leyton’s deck choice definitely had some cuteness, the most obvious being the full set of Mishra's Bauble. I understand that this is a free cantrip that helps with achieving metalcraft for Mox Opal, but there are just better options. Gitaxian Probe comes to mind especially as knowing the contents of your opponent’s hand seems much better than knowing the top card of your opponent’s library.

He also had the full set of Forbidden Orchard with no Oath of Druids in sight. This seems like a mistake as well. When you essentially have access to four Griselbrand at the cost of playing Oath, which isn’t really much of a cost, and just choose to not take advantage of it, just baffles me. Wrapter is arguably the best deckbuilder in the world, but here I think he missed the mark. Besides that, no real surprising card choices in the field for week one.

Who’s the Favorite?

Going into this I was wondering how people would approach this question. Would people simply think that the pros would have the advantage with play skill? Would people consider the Vintage ringers in Menendian and Shay have an advantage with their format knowledge and wealth of experience? Or would the old school players in Buehler and Pikula show them how it’s done?

I personally felt that Menendian and Shay were the two favorites from the get go with LSV and Buehler right behind them. I think that their knowledge of the format would give them a huge edge. As someone who mostly plays Vintage and is a huge fan of these two Vintage masters I do have quite the bias toward them, but it’s not without good reason either. One of the main reasons that Shay and Menendian are not as high profile is because they have made a conscious choice to not play Standard or Modern as Vintage is just sweeter compared to those formats. The drawback to this is that since Vintage is not given the same attention as Standard or Modern these players are not as well known.

I would argue that if Vintage was or ever does become a PTQ or GP format these two would have been on the Pro Tour for a long time and if there were a Vintage Hall of Fame these two are first ballot without a doubt. Unfortunately, the fact that this can never become a reality due to the price and scarcity of cards we will never know, but it’s fun to dream.

Who Should Be Invited?

I will start by saying that I do not know who all was invited to play in the league. The following is simply what I would try to accomplish if I were trying to put together the Vintage Super League.

First, I would definitely invite the winner of the Vintage Championships at Eternal Weekend. I am not sure if Joel Lim was invited to play, but I sure hope he was. Next, with the MTGO Vintage Constructed Championships debuting this year, I would invite the winner of that to play as well. I think that getting high profile players is the next step because people want to watch them play Magic in general, Vintage specialists want to see how they approach the format and they want to test their skills against the best players.

Third and most obviously the winner of the VSL should be invited to defend their title the next year and also, as is the case, the person who finishes dead last should not be invited back. Next I think the person who wins the Bazaar of Moxen should also be considered. I am not sure how international this league wants to get or if the time zone issues would be too much, but the BOM was consistently the largest no-proxy Vintage tournament for years.

Lastly, I hope that next year there will be at least one, maybe two, more Vintage experts in the field. The people I would want to watch the most would be either Paul Mastriano, Brian DeMars or Kevin Cron.

All of these players have three Vintage Champs Top 8’s, with a win for Mastriano in 2008. Kevin Cron has Top 8’s in two different decades with his first two back to back in 2003 and 2004 and DeMars went back to back in 2008 and 2009. These guys have been crushing Vintage for a little over a decade now and I hope their talent and love for the format get to be showcased at some point.

In terms of the pros, the two that come to mind are Owen Turtenwald and David Ochoa. Owen is the 2010 Vintage World Champ and made Top 8 in 2008, but being one of the top players in the world, if not the best, it is understandable that he may need to focus on the Pro Tour and not have much time to play Vintage. David Ochoa has been known to love Vintage and apparently was known for crushing Vintage in Northern California for quite some time.

MTGO Vintage Constructed Championships

There has been much discussion about the fact that the MTGO Vintage Constructed Championship qualifiers have not been firing with any sort of consistency. Some have reasoned that it is because many of them are not well timed and 30 tickets isn’t cheap, but I don’t think either of those are good enough reasons to explain why these qualifiers are not getting enough players.

The bottom line is that what is at stake isn’t enough. If people have the option to qualify for the Pro Tour by other means on Magic Online or in real life, or play for a set of foil Vintage Masters, they will choose the former most of the time.

As someone who loves Vintage more than any other format I can speak to this. If there is a PTQ in the area, I will most likely play even if I don’t enjoy the format all that much, like Standard or Modern. This has become less true now that Vintage is more readily available in my area, but qualifying for the Pro Tour can make people do silly things like skip Vintage events or even play Sealed. With the prizes being what they are this will most likely continue to happen.

One thing this tournament does guarantee is that there will be more power in the environment. Unfortunately, there will not be enough power given out to really make any shift in the price of Vintage on Magic Online as a whole. So don’t go selling your power or anything crazy. I would say keep holding onto it, because once Vintage Masters is gone there will be a spike in their value. If you aren’t looking to be in it for the long haul then right after Vintage Masters leaves is when I think you want to sell.

Overall the future of Vintage is still looking bright and we will know if this trend is to continue once Champs roles around in October. Will Champs be the biggest IRL Vintage tournament ever? All signs point to yes.

Khans of Tarkir Spoiler – Ivorytusk Fortress

Posted on August 30, 2014September 2, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Not likely to impact Standard, Fortress is a very interesting card nonetheless. EDH players have weighed in online and Ghave, Guru of Spores players have already dismissed this card as something they aren't super interested in. Even within the EDH community, people have big blind spots where their own experiences don't give them much insight into what players of other decks might want.

So the price of this can never hope to exceed the price of Prophet of Kruphix unless this got played a TON in Standard. I can't say it won't without having seen the entire set, but I'm reasonably certain that this is a dud. It's a cool effect, but this will be a very affordable rare and I wouldn't get too excited about it.