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The full spoiler is now up, and some of the cards bear discussion and some will warrant their own entry. Painting with broad strokes for now, let's get through the relevant bits from the last of the spoiler.
Venom Sliver
Deathtouch seems like a really odd ability. Since all of your slivers grant other slivers abilities, you're less inclined to trade creatures since it will deprive the survivors of abilities. Will making the creatures trade more often make you more or less competitive? M15 limited isn't deep enough to run slivers and if you're making a Standard slivers deck, you're jammed at 2 mana and won't run more than like 1 of these, probably in the board for odd situations. As a meathooks devotee, I'm not stoked about this guy at all. I realize trading is good, and if you have a sliver that grants first strike or has the Goblin Medic ability, this is nutty. Worst case in M15 limited he's a slightly more expensive Sedge Scorpion who has a non-zero amount of upside if you get other slivers.
Diffusion Sliver
But why fish for nice things to say about that sliver when we can just salivate over this one. Crystalline Sliver it ain't, but frost armor is a spicy ability and I'll sure take it. It doesn't help us be less jammed at 2 mana, but this is an ability I want to devote maindeck space to. Aether Vial would make this deck so good in Standard and make the 2 mana logjam irrelevant. It would also likely make the rest of standard super annoying.
Back to Nature
Seriously? What? I am literally baffled. This basically punishes people for playing interesting cards from Theros block and rewards them for playing gods, which are durdly. I really can't see the rationale behind printing this in the core set. I hate, hate, hate this printing.
Dissipate
This I can get behind, though. With the cycle of uncounterable spells leaving soon, we need counterspells again, and having a decent one never killed anyone.
Polymorphist's Jest
This is another one in a long line of blue spells that look good but compete with each other for the same slot and are hard to gauge in 2 dimensions. Will this get run? Whelming Wave? Aetherspouts? Or are none of those as good as just jamming white for wrath effects? Curse of the Swine was more popular than I'd anticipated in EDH and that is still a bulk rare, so I feel like that speaks volumes about a card I expect to see equal adoption at best. What's more likely is that this sees far, far less play than a bulk rare, which bodes poorly for it to say the least.
Pillar of Light
Could this be the removal white wants? I'm scooping these out of draft leavings in any case; I've had situations where I got $5 in trade for playsets of commons like this the first week before an event started. This seems sideboardy, but it also seems like it can solve a lot of problems, namely gods and artifact creatures that deal a lot of damage if they die.
Battle Mastery
Naya Hexproof has a lot of gas in the set. I wasn't sure if the deck wanted to pay 5 for Spectra Ward, but I am sure they want to pay 3 for Battle Mastery which lets them run more hexproof creatures and lets them lean less heavily on a risky card like Fencing Ace. This could spell upside for hexproof cards and other staples in the Naya hexproof deck which were tailing off but could see renewed interest in the lame duck months of the current standard. I'm not saying buy, I'm saying you have some stability to sell into.
All in all this set looks gassy, and there is financial opportunity here.
I would take a look at which decks these new cards allow and move accordingly. I think people will want to give hexproof one last hurrah, I think a M14-M15 slivers deck is going to be attempted by tons of people including yours truly giving you a crack at outing M14 slivers on a high note and causing interest in Mana Confluence to be heightened even more. Get those M14 slivers like Bonescythe Sliver off of the books while people still care, but don't fret if you're holding the bag, either. Long-term interest in slivers is totally a thing. Galerider has cross-applicability given its (narrow) usage in some mono-blue builds.
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The term "Circling the Wagons" comes from the Old West situation of being attacked on all sides. Most people think of this scenario and that's the definition that comes to mind.
Me? Ya, so I grew up a little differently.
To me, when the wagons are circled, that's when you go in for the kill. That's when your opponent's back is clearly against the wall. Break their lines and invade their territory! CRY HAVOC AND LET LOOSE THE DOGS OF WAR! Okay, so maybe there's a little too much General Custard in me.
If you've been reading my column long enough, you know I delve into a variety of subjects. Lately, the trend has been the coming and goings of Modern. The last 12+ months have been the lead-up to my favorite constructed format. Naturally, when you want to educate in your writings, you make sure you talk about the things you know best. Modern is absolutely my greatest tool in my arsenal, but being a retail store owner, traveler, Magic speculator and a deep introspector means that I can bring many topics to the conversation.
I've mentioned a number of times how this game has changed. If you've been following Magic: The Gathering for years--or even for only a few months--you'll notice a series of patterns that most events take. Just like poker though, all Magic: The Finance is is just "seeing hands".
"Seeing Hands"
In English, "Seeing Hands" is an idiom to suggest that patterns arise after watching a series of repetitions of the same event.
I touched on this last week, and it bares repeating:
"Let’s face it. The game has changed. The game is changing. Still. The expectations of the past no longer apply to the present."
In the past, as Pro Tour Qualifier seasons came and went there would be a series of events. Prepare (Acquire)->Wait->Release->Restock." Rinse. Repeat. This ebb and flow was continually driven by obvious spikes in the customer demand, with or without constraints on supply. It was like clockwork, though.
Let me reiterate this: If you know nothing about supply and demand--you are cheating yourself on valuable information in your speculation career. Take a day. Take a moment and read up on the different effects of supply vs. demand.
Now the game is clearly different. Magic: The Finance has taken on a much more elaborate form. It's not simple, cuddly and cute. You might have been starting at it as a Mogwai before, but now...?
Consider it its evolved state. As the evolution of a thing progresses, you must recognize how that thing is changing. If you feel trapped in a dead end, you can no longer just wait it out, or head back to the starting line. The race is already in full progress and there is no lap to catch up to. The race really never ends.
"The Race Really Never Ends."
What that really means isn't some existential "Why are we here?" line. I only bring up the phrase because it simply means one thing--there isn't a good starting time or place, anymore. Any starting time is a good starting time. Any angle is a good angle.
Know more about Commander than Modern? Start with Commander. Love Standard? Welcome to the crowd! The traditional cycle I mentioned before just does not exist anymore. Do you want to start something? Start Today. It used to be that you would have to wait for your specialties. The last two years have had two (possibly three) significant events that have changed that though.
The rise of alternate formats.
Wizards attempting to regain the "Alpha" role.
With any good business plan, as things change you must change with them. The rise of alternate formats like Legacy (backed with support from Star City Games) has really fundamentally altered everything about this business.This small step into underutilized territory really opened a lot of peoples' eyes on what was possible. It went from older cards meaning little to nothing to *BOOM* Legacy is played every weekend. Commander went from an obscure recreational "trinket" to the casual players' bread and butter. It gave form to the chaos that was casual play.
For years, that was the one distraction that could possibly prevent you from really getting in on casual play. What happens when you get together with people you didn't know? They could have anything. They could be playing any deck. 40 card. 60 card. Oh jeez, that guy has a 300-card deck (and he wasn't even playing Battle of Wits). That is seriously how random casual play was.
Giving some definition to a format gave people an expectation. When you have an expectation you can hold, you all of a sudden have a problem that sparks curiosity. It brings out innovation. Passion sticks out it's thumb and wants to grab you by the ears and tell you where to go. You get players.
Subtly, Commander is what has caused Magic: The Gathering to reach heights before untold.
Along with that, Wizards attempted to regain the competitive edge on events. Either that, or they saw the market as Star City was attacking it. Why can't you have large scale events every other weekend? Why were you not doing coverage, building excitement, getting people interested, and having them plan for the next event locally as well as short/medium distances away.
They were looking for ways to bring the Pro Tour respectability and legitimacy. Even attempting to throw it up on ESPN to drive people to it. The response was very lackluster in that regard. People just didn't enjoy it because it didn't tickle the expectations in their brain stems.
Now that has changed. All just because the mentality shift has taken place. This mentality shift has delved to the deepest parts of Magic: The Gathering and has affected Magic: The Finance on the deepest levels as well. What form that chaos is going to take is still shifting and moving. Writhing even.
The second guessing stage has come into play. That stage is when you start looking at fundamental assumptions that you've made and ask what you've assumed. You then start to reassess, innovate, and move forward. We're at a truly great time in Magic: The Finance. There's a path that is ready to be blazed, only if someone is willing to say: "Why not? Why could this work?" Instead of asking "Why couldn't this work."
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The set has turned out way better than you might expect from a Core Set, with new Planeswalkers, powerful Mythics and a host of awesome casual and Commander cards, there's something here for everyone. With just a week to go before the midnight prerelease, I know I'm pumped!
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The enigmatic MTGO user "Zwischenzug" has struck fear and despair in those who saw him in their queue, though his true identity remained a mystery. That changed in March when Paul Nemeth--winner of Constructed Player of the Year on MTGO--was invited to Renton to compete in the Magic Online Championship Series (MOCS) against some of the top online players in the world. (You can read his competitor profile here.)
Nemeth, preparing to compete in the MOCS
Paul now does strategy videos for Quiet Speculation, piloting a diverse set of decks to strong finishes and talking through his plays in a very systematic and clear way. You can check out his video archive here. Most of them are only available to Insiders (QS has started to offer a lot of Insider-only strategy content in addition to their financial offerings) but they have unlocked one video here. This week I had the opportunity to interview Paul Nemeth, an elite Magic Online player who recently made the transition to the Pro Tour.
QS: You came to Magic from the world of competitive chess. Do you still get to play chess these days?
Paul: No, I seem to pick one game and focus on it for years at a time. For the past three years that has been Magic. The six years before that were World of Warcraft (WoW). Perhaps spending that much time on WoW was not a great life decision. Tournament chess was the eight years prior, age ten to eighteen. I won a state championship in chess (Ohio) which I am very proud of because I'm not even close to the best player in the state. I totally lucked out there. I'll take what I can get. Chess is hard.
QS: Did you ever teach chess? From your videos on QS it seems you have a real knack for breaking down complicated decisions.
Paul: Thanks! I dabbled briefly with teaching chess towards the end, but mostly I was taught chess. My two coaches, Michael Joelson and Calvin Blocker, were fantastic. I owe a lot to them for helping mold me in to the competitor I am today.
QS: How did you first get started on MTGO? What was the first Constructed format that you first started playing regularly?
Paul: Well, I've been a casual Magic player since forever. I was introduced to the game when I was too young to even understand the rules properly, and I didn't have enough money to consider taking the game seriously. One day when I was twenty-four, a couple months after Scars of Mirrodin was released, I thought to myself "I'm bored. I'm good at games. I've never taken Magic seriously. I want to see how far I can go if I do." So I drafted for a while and I got to 1800 rating, which I considered respectable, but I was still losing tickets. I started doing some internet research about going infinite, bought a garbage block deck for roughly 40 tix (Mono-Black Infect) and from there I easily went infinite.
QS: What format would you recommend to a player starting on MTGO for the first time?
Paul: Well, it depends on your goals. If you want to play magic without spending too much money, you need to follow the value. You'll probably pick a constructed format with a low cost of entry such as Block or Pauper, and play exclusively in Daily Events. Before you commit, you should check MTGO's schedule to find a format that will work with yours. I'd avoid Standard. As far as I can tell, everybody's win percentage in Standard is closer to 50 percent than in other formats. This is bad if you are a good player, but it can be good if you're inexperienced or if winning at Magic is not your highest priority in life. Most of the Standard decks are expensive, particularly the better ones, and rotation takes a chunk out of the value of your collection. If you want to have fun—and even among QS readers I think that's probably the best goal for most people—play whatever you can afford and find fun. That's what I did for my many years as a casual player. When I could afford it, I would play whatever seemed fun.
QS: How would you recommend players build the value of their collection on MTGO and avoid bleeding tix?
Paul: First, subscribe to QS and read a lot of articles, including older ones, and explore the forums. I'm being paid $0 to say that and do this interview. I'm here mostly because it's fun and hopefully I might pick up a fan or two which is always a good feeling. Not subscribing to QS sooner is one of the most stupid/obvious mistakes I've made as an investor. There's a 111% money back guarantee, and even if there weren't the information is worth much more to me than it costs. After that, you need to be honest with yourself about joining events. For almost every player in almost every format, when you join a draft you are paying money to have fun. Don't join a draft because you might open a chase mythic and make a profit. Don't join a draft because you lost the last one and want to win your money back.
QS: Cube draft is your favorite format. What is your approach to drafting the Cube? Is there a particular archetype you look for, or do you just try to stay open?
Paul: I think I've had my best results when I try to force a blue-white control deck, potentially splashing either red or black. I have found that staying open to different stuff can be more fun but also leads to drafting "trap" archetypes, such as Reanimator, which just aren't supported enough relative to how often they're drafted in this cube.
Reanimator can be a trap
QS: Is it possible to make tix playing Cube or is that purely for fun?
Paul: I make a little money playing Cube but it's certainly not going to pay my rent. When I play Cube it's because I want to have fun, not because I'm trying to make money.
QS: In your interview for the MOCS you mentioned that investing in MTGO makes up an important part of your income, and that you had almost 6,000 boosters and at one point had 600 Mutavaults. You don't mess around on small specs, huh?
Paul: Lately I have messed around with smaller specs, and what I've learned is that I'm not disciplined enough to manage them properly. With that in mind, smaller specs don't seem worth my time. Better to put down a lot of money on the few opportunities that I'm really confident in. Your situation may be different. I should point out that I started out with much smaller specs and only built up to those numbers as my confidence grew.
QS: How much profit did you make on those Mutavaults?
Paul: A little over 7,000 tix.
QS: That's a nice haul. What are some common mistakes that people make when they start speculating on MTGO?
[pullquote]"Don't buy any investment because somebody said a couple sentences. You need to put a lot of your own thought in."[/pullquote]Paul: Not subscribing to QS soon enough. I know that many times while reading QS I've learned useful things that I was unlikely to come up with on my own. I say that as somebody who made at least a few thousand tix net profit from investing prior to joining QS.
To give one example, I recently read some analysis on the QS forums which I found pretty convincing that estimated the value of the average piece of Power 9 should be a little over 100 tix. On day one, the MTGO classifieds were much lower than that so I put up an ad and snagged three pieces of P9 for a total 170 tix. The next day prices skyrocketed over the QS projected value and so I sold them for 605 tix total. That was 435-tix profit flipping three cards over twenty-four hours. Pre-QS I never would've touched something as volatile and difficult to predict as the P9 on day one. This is certainly not a typical result of the value of a QS subscription—P9 release on MTGO is a unique opportunity—but it's still a fun anecdote.
QS: Are there any cards you would recommend that readers pick up at the moment?
Paul: Don't buy any investment because somebody said a couple sentences. You need to put a lot of your own thought in. That said, boosters are a low risk, low reward option. As a new investor I would try to understand that part of the market first.
QS: It sounds like you have a lot of money invested in digital cards. How concerned are you about the v3 shutdown, which Wizards has now scheduled for July 16?
Paul: The transition is going to hurt some, but there should also be some good opportunities to buy while the market is low.
QS: What did it feel like when you won Constructed Player of the Year? What does winning that title mean to you?
[pullquote]"Winning that tournament was absolutely life changing in a very positive way."[/pullquote]Paul: Bittersweet. I've played in many of these events, and the one that I won I was not well prepared for at all. It was Standard so I figured there wasn't much to be gained by practicing a lot. I picked a random 4-0 list from the most popular archetype (Mono-Black), went 2-2 in two daily events, and got lucky enough to win the Constructed Player of the Year tournament. There had been a lot of events previously where I prepared a lot and felt like I was easily one of the best players with one of the best lists. I had three previous MOCS Top 8s, but each time I fell short. Better lucky than good.
That said, winning that tournament was absolutely life changing in a very positive way. It played a role in getting my series at QS. It made me several thousand dollars at the Magic Online Championship. I had a lot of fun and some important networking opportunities at the Championship, including meeting Mike Turian, who plays an important role in the MTGO economy, and Lars Dam who was very important to my success in Atlanta. And it qualified me for Pro Tour Journey into Nyx in Atlanta.
QS:You finished 24th at Pro Tour Journey into Nyx and were basically a match away from making Top 8. How did you arrive at your deck choice? Who are you testing with for Portland?
Paul: My preparation involved a week of testing, mostly with Lars Dam, the Magic Online Champion. At the end of the week, Martin Müller introduced us to the BUG list I played which seemed better than anything Lars and I had come up with. I went 3-3 in draft and 8-2 in Constructed, with both losses from mirror matches. (Thanks Martin.) We all finished in the money and are excited to be working together again. That said, three people is not enough. If you're qualified for Portland and you'd be interested in working with us please leave me a message on MTGO (Zwischenzug) or email me PaulANemeth@gmail.com.
BUG Control list that Paul played to 8-2 at PT:JOU
Creatures
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Prognostic Sphinx
4 Reaper of the Wilds
4 Sylvan Caryatid
Other Spells
3 Bile Blight
1 Drown in Sorrow
4 Hero's Downfall
3 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
1 Read the Bones
3 Silence the Believers
4 Thoughtseize
1 Unravel the Aether
Lands
6 Forest
1 Island
5 Swamp
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Temple of Malady
4 Temple of Mystery
Sideboard
3 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
2 Consign to Dust
2 Dark Betrayal
2 Dissolve
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Gainsay
1 Psychic Intrusion
1 Unravel the Aether
QS: How does playing high-level paper Magic differ from MTGO?
Paul: Paper Magic is much harder for me than MTGO. I can remember triggers, but having to manually do everything is mentally taxing so I end up making unusually stupid mistakes. Sideboarding is harder because I can't spread everything out and instantly sort it by converted mana cost.
QS: Given your love for Cube you must have been pretty stoked for Vintage Masters.
Paul: Cube is really the only limited format I've ever felt excited about. I don't enjoy spending money, so drafting just doesn't appeal to me.
[pullquote]"You need to be willing to quit drafting while you're ahead before you're playing against a bunch of grinders with experience in the format."[/pullquote]That said, I did try Vintage Masters and it was a lot of fun. Astral Slide decks were my favorite. I made a little profit despite never opening any power. I've recently changed my stance on drafting new sets from "never do it because it's negative EV" to "do a lot during the first week or so because lots of casual players show up and so few people know what they're doing it's actually reasonable EV and pretty fun." If you want to get that reasonable EV you probably need a lot of experience evaluating new cards or a lot more experience during that first week than most of your opponents. Also, you need to be willing to quit while you're ahead before you're playing against a bunch of grinders with experience in the format. No value there.
QS: Do you play Legacy and Vintage online?
Paul: I've played some Legacy. I always try to play in the MOCS so when it's Legacy month that's probably what I'm playing.
I'm looking forward to trying out Vintage. Hopefully I'll get to it in the next few weeks. If I do I'll definitely make a video.
QS: A lot of us are trying to get better at constructed Magic, but we have limited time to invest in improving. What are the best ways to spend time to level up faster? Do you recommend just getting reps by playing? Watching quality videos/streams? Are there any podcasts you listen to?
[pullquote]"If you want to improve, my first piece of advice would be to slow down your pace of play." [/pullquote]Paul: If you want to improve, my first piece of advice would be to slow down your pace of play. Think things through, think ahead, stop making stupid errors. You may need to play a little faster in important paper events to avoid draws, but for most of your practice thinking things through is more important than getting reps. If you have limited time you should probably pick one deck in one format and stick to it as long as reasonably possible. That advice is pretty good even if you have a lot of time. I think streams can be a good option when you don't have the time or energy to play matches, but they're probably not as time efficient as actually playing matches. It's better if you have your own money/rating/ego on the line to force you to care more and think more. You should be somewhat upset with yourself when you make stupid mistakes in practice, but be ready to instantly forgive yourself for those same mistakes in a big tournament so they don't distract you during the rest of your matches.
QS: Do you watch your replays after games? I feel like this is an underutilized resource for most players--do you agree?
[pullquote]"You should be somewhat upset with yourself when you make stupid mistakes in practice, but be ready to instantly forgive yourself for those same mistakes in a big tournament"[/pullquote]Paul: Analyzing my games in chess was certainly a huge part of my development as a competitor. Magic is pretty different because of the dangers of becoming results-oriented. Also, Magic has had many problems over the years with replays not working. I prefer to just play slowly and try to think everything through well the first time. I think you're right that it can be an important tool in improving your game.
QS: What do you enjoy doing when you are not gaming?
Paul: Frankly, I have no idea what you are talking about. Are you saying there's more to life than gaming?
If you have a question for Paul feel free to leave a comment.
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I always pay attention to tournament results, especially Modern because I’m so interested in the direction of the format.
We’re in the midst of a Modern Pro Tour Qualifier season, and, of course, these events are global. I’ve been paying special attention to decklists from Japanese tournaments. It’s one of the historically great Magic countries, and they play a lot of Magic every day of the week.
I’ve always enjoyed decklists from Japan and I’m used to finding crazy decks doing well. It’s also a competitive place where a lot of nicely designed and tuned decklists rise to the top.
I’ve been following the trends of the metagame, which over the last month includes a couple of large PTQs) one with an incredible 280+ players), some large Open tournaments--one with 300 players--and a bunch of smaller store events.
I’ve noticed some trends in their metagame--some decks really showing their consistency and power compared to some of the other decks--and its data is worth comparing to the American and global Modern metagames.
Note that I’m just referring to the top of the metagame, the winningest decks that get shared, meaning this is the cream of the crop. Here’s how it looks:
All taken together, Birthing Pod decks, most somewhere between the two camps of Melira Pod and Angel Pod, make up the biggest chunk of the metagame.
What’s surprising is number two, BG Rock. I’m going to get more into that deck later. Number three is Affinity, not surprising given its strength against the top-two archetypes.
Next is all variations of Splinter Twin combo, UR, RUG, and UWR, followed right behind by Jund, which is essentially just BG Rock with more metagame positioning against Affinity and Birthing Pod.
The Green and Black Rock core may be the best in the metagame. Together, Jund and GB Rock take up the lion’s share of the Japanese metagame with nearly double the share of the next most popular deck. This is a big sign that these cards are again rising to the top of the post- Deathrite Shaman metagame. It makes sense, because, as a metagame develops, control decks and decks with lots of answers grow better, since they are able to predict what answers they will need.
GB Rock is more of a control deck now without Deathrite Shaman, and, as the metagame has started to take shape in a post-Deathrite Shaman world, BG can position itself in its new role playing by all the correct cards to perfectly attack the new metagame.
Here’s the Golgari core everyone knows and loves:
The Rock Core
This core provides disruption, card advantage, and aggression in an efficient package. These cards are effective against each and every opponent, so they provide a strong core on which to deckbuild around. There is a wealth of card options, even within just GB, in addition to the option of adding a color.
The red addition of Jund offers an upgrade in card power and adds more specific answers to problems, but with the cost of mana consistency and lifepoints to shocklands. Some splash white for specific answers like Stony Silence, but it’s not nearly as popular.
In Japan, I have seen a specific variation of GB pick up steam, a version that forgoes Tectonic Edge in favor of Mutavault, which allows the to deck play more aggressively. I am a huge fan of this change, because manlands are so effective in conjunction with disruption. The GB deck is built to melt down both players’ hands and boards, so being left with a Mutavault can be game-winning. I used to play the combination of Mutavault and Treeop Village in Standard BG Elves, one of my all-time favorite decks, and I have been excited to play with it again.
The Decklists
Here’s the list that won a PTQ this past weekend:
GB Rock
Maindeck
3 Swamp
1 Forest
3 Overgrown Tomb
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Marsh Flats
1 Misty Rainforest
2 Twilight Mire
4 Treetop Village
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Mutavault
4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Scavenging Ooze
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Obstinate Baloth
1 Slaughter Pact
4 Abrupt Decay
2 Dismember
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Liliana of the Veil
Sideboard
3 Lifebane Zombie
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Disfigure
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Thoughtseize
1 Drown in Sorrow
1 Damnation
1 Seal of Primordium
Here’s the list that took 3rd, and closer to what I’d recommend playing in a more balanced metagame:
GB Rock
Maindeck
2 Swamp
1 Forest
3 Overgrown Tomb
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Marsh Flats
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Woodland Cemetery
2 Twilight Mire
4 Treetop Village
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Mutavault
4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Scavenging Ooze
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Courser of Kruphix
1 Slaughter Pact
4 Abrupt Decay
2 Dismember
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
1 Putrefy
4 Liliana of the Veil
Sideboard
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Creeping Corrosion
3 Obstinate Baloth
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Golgari Charm
2 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Phyrexian Arena
These decks help make up for the loss of Tectonic Edge with maindeck Fulminator Mage. The card is strong against most opponents. It’s great against Tron, of course, punishes Scapeshift by disrupting their lands, is excellent for grinding out UWR control and killing Celestial Colonnade. It’s good against Affinity for killing manlands like Inkmoth Nexus and is actually quite relevant in the mirror match. I’ve seen the Fulminator Mage adaption do well in the past, and it may just be the best way to go moving forward.
Note that functionally, Tectonic Edge and Fulminator Mage have some negative synergy in the fact that, as a land destruction spell, Fulminator Mage on turn 3 delays the impact of Tectonic Edge. On the other hand, Fulminator Mage creates synergy with Mutavault, which is ideal against an opponent light on land.
As to the details of the lists, Obstinate Baloth in the maindeck is strong against Burn, which is another deck performing well in Japan. The lifegain and 4/4 body are also excellent against aggressive tempo-based decks, including UR Tempo, and especially those with Restoration Angel or Geist of Saint Traft, which are popular in the Japanese metagame.
In a balanced metagame, I’d prefer the second approach of playing Courser of Kruphix in that slot and leaving the Obstinate Baloth in the sideboard. I am also a huge fan of maindeck Garruk Wildspeaker, which gives the deck an excellent clock with the ultimate ability and is particularly useful with Mutavault.
The Sideboard
It’s great to see Lifebane Zombie in Modern, where it punishes cards like the aforementioned Restoration Angel and Geist of Saint Traft. It’s also a potential star against Birthing Pod decks, and it’s just a solid threat all-around, much like in Standard. Going forward through the Modern season, Lifebane Zombie is something worth exploring.
The Affinity matchup can be difficult for GB Rock, so specialized hate cards like Creeping Corrosion are a must. Affinity is among the most popular decks in Japan, and I know it’s huge in the American GP and PTQ scene, so the more the better in this regard.
Conclusions
The BG Rock core has proven itself to be the best in Modern time and time again. Through two bannings, first Bloodbraid Elf then Deathrite Shaman, the deck continues to adapt to the world around it, and it’s still thriving.
The newest innovation, playing maindeck Mutavault, gives the deck a more aggressive angle to take advantage of its disruption package. In addition, Fulminator Mage is well-positioned as a maindeck card.
I’m excited to play this deck further, preliminary results have been great, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on the metagame or the archetype.
For those interested, here's the link to all the decklists I've referenced for my metagame info, over at happymtg
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This video was published on Quiet Speculation on April 21st. We’ve chosen to unlock it now in order to showcase Paul Nemeth/Zwischenzug's videos and showcase what Paul has to offer every week.
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People seemed to enjoy when I posted about the Star City Games Grand Prix New Jersey playmat, so I thought it would be a good idea to share this next one.
Why? Because it's that awesome.
A "playmap," if you will.
Coming from someone who's done the Disney World thing in Orlando several times, I really appreciate the idea behind this playmat. It's a brilliant idea and executed fairly well. It's possible a little larger art and a little less text could have made the attractions "pop" a little more, but really that's just nitpicking since this is one one of the top two or three playmats I've seen this year.
What do you think? Original, awesome idea or text-filled boring mat?
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Although flavor-laden, I don't know if the fact that the number of hornets you get scales with damage justifies this being printed at rare. Roc Egg was a fine card, not too powerful, but a very solid draft pick mid-pack. Is this so much better than Roc Egg that it need appear a third as often in drafts? 1/1 flying, deathtouch wasps are very good. I hope Hornet Nest is not the only card that produces these wasps, because a playable card that makes them would give financial upside to the 1/1 flying, deathtouch wasp tokens. As it is, the tokens will be unique and hard to find, but with no impetus to get them outside of a limited-only bulk rare, upside will be limited.
Kalonian Twin Glove
The twinglove token was spoiled by Adam Styborski a full 24 hours before the Twinglove. "Double Dungrove" has a real drawback in that he lacks Dungrove Elder's heproof but kept his lack of trample. However, mono-green devotion seems pretty solid and with the new Nissa there is a lot to work with.
The token I mentioned has a lot of upside if this card sees play. Having printed 5 tokens and about to print my 6th, I know that any jackass with a paypal acount can commission tokens and yet the ones inserted into packs by Wizards continue to command real price tags. I wouldn't be surprised to see Twinglove tokens laying around on tables, discarded, at the prerelease. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the token worth money if Twinglove is as well. $5 tokens are a real, historical thing.
This card looks like there are a lot of circumstances under which it could see play, and casual players will get a kick out of it. I'd keep my eye on this dude.
Scuttling Doom Engine
Apart from a ridiculous name, this card seems very solid. I wrote that there wasn't much of an impetus to use Chief Engineer to ramp things out, but this may be a reason to try those kinds of shenanigans. Green should have an easy time ramping to this as well. As a curve-topper this guy is no Wurmcoil Engine but he is very good for rare and I think he could see play. He certainly seems powerful enough to try. EDH obviously will try this as well. Looping him with sac outlets in a deck like Sharuum the Hegemon that can easily bring him back is nutty.
Prismatic Runeguard
Look at the price of Spirit Mantle. This card is absolutely nucking futs in a Bruna, Light of Alabaster deck, and its mana cost is irrelevant there because you're most likely not paying it. This is nuts in Standard in the right deck although auras decks are losing too many card to continue on after M14 and RTR rotate out. So many EDH decks want this and I think Spirit Mantle demonstrates that even being printed at uncommon and being included in multiple specialty sets can't keep a popular aura down if it's the right color. White is the right color, by the way. Foils of this will likely be expensive due to EDH and I think if this tanks in value initially, you go deep. This seems durdly to standard players, which is good because I like to trade EDH gas off of them anyway. It remains to be seen whether 5 mana is going to be too much, but for an aura that says "win the damn game" when applied to Uril the Miststalker, 5 mana is cheap. Craig Wescoe is already working on a way to break this, I bet. No one liked Angelic Destiny at first, either. This isn't quite as powerful, but it isn't meant to work solely on its own and that is the important thing to remember.
If Standard ignores this card, I could see it tanking initially. I'm going to watch the price very closely. I'm all-in at $1-$1.50
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Green has always been one of my favorite colors in Magic. There’s just something about ramping into a huge monster or playing extremely aggressive creatures and stomping your opponent.
Through the years I have played many varieties of green decks. I’ve played everything from Wild Nacatl to Birthing Pod to Primeval Titan and everything in between. While I’m not as dedicated to green as Craig Wescoe is to white, if I think I can get an angle on the format with some green spells, I’m going to dive right in.
When I scour new spoilers, I am often drawn immediately to the green cards, and M15 is no different. This exciting new core set has gifted the green mages out there some great new tools. M15 has everything from tutor effects to utility creatures. There’s a lot to be said about M15, but this week I’m green with envy.
Let’s start with the return of the other green planeswalker, Nissa.
Nissa is obviously powerful in many ways. Identifying powerful cards is an important aspect of this game, but we don’t have to stretch our imaginations much to discover her powerful nature. Sometimes Wizards makes us work to uncover strong cards that are hidden behind walls of doubt like Doomed Traveler.
No one would have guessed that Doomed Traveler would have been a highly played card but with the other cards legal at the time, this innocent one-mana 1/1 served synergy in multiple decks. While we don’t have to work hard to find Nissa, she still gets my vote for most exciting card in the set.
Lately we are seeing many more planeswalkers with two plus-one abilities. This model for Magic’s hardest-to-deal-with card type might be the most powerful as well. No matter what you choose to do with your planeswalker, you are making them harder to remove. Fortunately for Nissa, both of her loyalty increasing abilities are quite good.
The first one, making your land a 4/4 with trample, will give you a huge army very quickly. I can’t help but compare this ability to that of Koth of the Hammer because they both make your lands into the same sized creature. I know I’ve said it before but turning your lands into 4/4 haste creatures is going to put some major pressure on your opponent extremely quickly.
This ability has some synergy with another card being reprinted in this set as well, Darksteel Citadel. With this land, you can make indestructible 4/4’s! Even though that is a potent interaction, I’m not certain that playing colorless lands will be viable in your Nissa deck, but it is definitely worth considering.
For her next trick, Nissa will magically make your lands reappear! Okay, okay, yes I know, cheesy, but still. If you are casting her when you first reach five mana, this is the ability you will be choosing. Making her virtually free is something I never thought I would see Wizards do again. They did though, so we now have the ability to play our planeswalker along with any other cards we want that cost four or less all on the same turn.
Once you’ve untapped with her in play, then things start getting out of control. As long as you are hitting your land drops, you go from five to ten mana in the span of one turn! Why anyone thought that was a good idea I’ll never know, but we cannot ignore one of the best ramp spells ever printed.
Her first two abilities work well together also. If you have made a 4/4 army and your opponent is somehow not dead yet, you can untap them and still use them for mana. Ya know, because that’s completely necessary.
Sure you need to play mostly forests to get the most out of Nissa, but when have drawbacks stopped Magic players from playing powerful cards before? The constraints are well worth building your deck around her.
If her first two abilities were not enough, the ultimate should win the game for you. Granted your opponent has a turn to overcome your 4/4 army, but that is not likely to happen other than them casting some wrath effect.
What are we going to do with all of our mana from Nissa, Worldwaker? Luckily M15 also gives us some great things to do with our mana.
When the convoke mechanic was first revealed to be in M15, rumors began to fly about Chord of Calling being in the set. Obviously this would be good for Modern players because its price was getting out of control, but I never thought they would put it in Standard. Granted, without Wall of Roots, this green tutor is not nearly as powerful, but any tutor effect is worth considering. We’ve seen the power of Chord of Calling in Modern, but will it be enough in Standard?
Luckily for us, Nissa gives us all the extra mana we could want and we can put that directly into casting a huge Chord. Maybe we might want to Chord for one of these new bad boys on the block.
Coincidentally, when we untap with Nissa, Worldwaker, even if we miss our land drop for the turn, we have access to nine mana. So, with Chord of Calling we can find either of these new ‘titans’ and get them into play immediately. While these are both extremely strong cards, we don’t even need to play more than one copy of each because we can always use our tutor to find whichever is best for the situation!
Next up on our new Chord targets list is a subtle yet powerful one.
For a long time, I’ve been playing Harmonic Sliver in Modern as a bullet to get with both Chord of Calling as well as Birthing Pod as it complements Qasali Pridemage quite well.
Reclamation Sage is a better Harmonic Sliver. Harmonic Sliver might actually be good in Standard right now were it to be printed, but giving this effect to a creature with a more aggressive body attached to an easier casting cost is pushing the power level a lot. There are a lot of targets to be destroyed with this effect, so much so that playing more than one to tutor for might be ideal. Either way, Reclamation Sage is my pick for best card under the radar.
Getting back to ramping with Nissa, here’s a card that I haven’t seen anyone talking about yet.
While this may look like a hit among the casual crowd, Genesis Hydra fits right into Nissa’s social group. It’s a perfect card to cast once you untap with Nissa in play or a great way to find Nissa once you have access to seven mana.
Genesis Hydra may not be as good as Genesis Wave, but it’s still a green card that provides card advantage and synergy with our ramp deck that’s in the oven cooking. If you are playing Courser of Kruphix, you’ll even have the knowledge about one possible card to hydra into.
There’s one more card I want to discuss that has green mana in it and that is a new Golgari planeswalker!
When I first saw new Garruk’s abilities I dismissed him because of his mana cost. After further consideration, I think he will definitely see some play in Standard. If you are playing black mana with Nissa, Worldwaker, he seems like a great thing to ramp into, but he could fit into other decks as well.
The main reason he will be undervalued initially is because of his mana cost but the reason he will be undervalued later on is because he only puts 3/3’s into play. I don’t know what Garruk’s obsession with 3/3 beasts is but if he put larger creatures into play it would be easier to nail down his power. Keep in mind that although they are only 3/3’s, they do also have deathtouch so they will trade with any other creatures. That is not something that should be overlooked.
All four of his abilities are solid and provide you with a great toolbox to work with. The fact that our second planeswalker with four abilities costs almost double the first one is hilarious to me and a nod to how much of a mistake Jace, the Mind Sculptor was to print.
Well that’s it for this week. Stay tuned next week for more info on sweet M15 Cards!
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I’m coming off a crazy weekend. I was on the coverage team for Wizards at Grand Prix Washington D.C., and it was a very busy weekend work-wise. But don’t worry, while I was doing coverage I also took note of some financial trends I noticed while hanging out on Friday.
No running theme today; just some quick hits of things that caught my attention from the weekend and the sentiment among the dealers I spoke to.
1) Fetchlands. Specifically, Onslaught fetches. You know, the ones that keep going up in price and are supposed to be stable? Think again. No one wanted to touch these. I had a Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta to sell, and it was way harder than you’d expect. In fact, it took me four trips to a dealer booth to find one to buy the cards at the prices you’d expect. Several buyers, including several who are members here (shoutouts to Paul, Kyle, Thomas for putting up with me this weekend), told me they just don’t want a piece of the fetches at
The reason? It’s not even that they believe allied-colored fetches are coming in the fall, it’s that the risk-to-reward is simply too high right now. It takes time to move $100 cards, and when a reprint would bring something you paid $60 for down to $15-20, you have to consider if you really want to buy that. A lot of people didn’t.
2) Excitement for Magic 2015 is high. There are so many money reprints, casual favorites and new staples being printed. I’m pretty sure this is the best Core Set since Magic 2010. Not only will this impact Constructed, I can’t wait to have singles from this set two or three years from now, because it’s all gold. Like I said in a free-side post, the #hypetrain is here, and I’m happy to play conductor (my set review will be out next week).
3) Buy prices on Return to Ravnica block are already tanking. I cleaned out a decent bit of my RTR block from the store to take to the event to sell, because I figured it’s better to take buylist now rather than hope to sell at retail in the next two months. After all, the downside of that failing to happen means holding a bunch of stuff that’s going to plummet.
This is kind of a new situation for me, because typically I’d unload this stuff in May or early June, but having a store to sell cards out of makes it a more difficult proposition since I have to balance protecting my value with having what my customers want.
Anyway, I decided it was time to unload some of the stuff that would theoretically tank hardest. So I was more than a little surprised to see just how far Sphinx's Revelation has fallen. Seriously, I was happy to take $6 apiece on them given how far it has dropped. I know retail prices for the block haven’t plummeted yet, but buy prices are doing so and retail won’t be too far behind.
4) I know a lot of people complained about the video coverage not starting (among other things), but I’m pretty proud of the work (Gathering Magic leader and former QS editor) Adam Styborski and I did at the event. I think this story I wrote about the fundraising efforts being done to support Mariah, a 17-year-old Magic player who was seriously injured in a hit-and-run accident, was especially important. Sharing stories like this is why I got into journalism and exactly the kind of coverage I wanted to bring to Magic. Any feedback on the text coverage is appreciated.
5) Aether Games has one of the coolest test prints I’ve seen in forever. If you don’t know, there is an extremely small number of cards on the market that are "test prints." That means that some leaked from when Wizards printed them with different borders/layouts to determine what they wanted to eventually use. These are super rare, and if you’re at a GP you won’t regret swinging by their booth to check it out.
Grands Prix and Buylisting
Okay, consider the quick hits over, because there’s another larger topic I want to touch on.
Is the age of selling at Grand Prix over?
Not long ago, it was almost universally better to take your cards to a Grand Prix to sell them. You could barter with dealers and shop around for the best prices. And you got paid immediately. It was a great setup.
All of that is still true, and I wouldn’t say that selling at GPs has gotten any worse. But selling online has gotten much better. In particular, the advent of buylist aggregators (including our own MTG.GG) has changed the game to an extent.
Rather than pour over a bunch of papers to find the best prices, I can instead do it online much more quickly, and with mtg.gg even have my buylist automatically sent to the dealer. Plus, a lot of the random commons and uncommons that are worth money aren’t really what dealers are looking for at events, so stuff gets thrown into the cheapest pile possible rather than the 50 cents you could’ve gotten for it online. That adds up pretty quickly.
I don’t know that I really have an opinion here one way or another. Some stuff, particularly high-end cards and foils, are likely better to move at GPs. But a lot of the other stuff may be better served to ship online. Sure, you have the post office hassle and the delay in payment, but in exchange I’m pretty sure that payment will just be much higher. What’s your experience? Similar or do you prefer one or the other for any particular reason?
It was great to see everyone I did at the Grand Prix, and next time I hope to catch everyone I missed this time around! Grand Prix Portland; that’s all I’m saying.
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Do the Superfriends say that? I don't know - DC sucks. Sorry, it's true. Marvel for life.
This is a good card in the right deck. This is confusing flavor-wise but If you have enough Planeswalkers to take advantage of this. If you do, it's likely you have 100 cards in your library. Standard decks might run quite a few planeswalkers but I don't know if they want this card, especially since it's a bit of a liability in a format with Hero's Downfall threatening to keep you off of walkers.
All in all, this didn't need to be mythic, but in the right deck this can give you a humongous advantage. It needs to hit quite a few walkers to be better on average than a card like Rings of Brighthearth so prepare to load up on walkers. This is going to be a real dud in sealed pools. I don't see much financial relevance here outside of foils.
Also, first Riki Hayashi tweeted that this does not go "infinite" with untap effects, and then today he said it did. Check Twitter for a final ruling. If this and Ral Zarek become the best of super friends, expect a little more play, but probably not enough to go nuts over.
Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient
Awww yiss.
They waited and spoiled this guy last and I am glad they finally spoiled him. This card is great in EDH. Decks built around Slobad, Goblin Tinkerer or Godo, Bandit Warlord or Bosh, Iron Golem could all use this guy, but he's also a sick build-around. I like this entire cycle and I think this is going to be financially-relevant in foil. Also, of all the cards in the cycle, I think he's the most likely to be undervalued initially. He looks like a bulk rare to people. Scoop accordingly.
Act on Impulse
Draw 3 cards. Exile them at the end of the turn. Except with upside. Nutty.
Leeching Sliver
This is a low-on-curve hero that a sliver deck needs. I don't know how inclined we are to try 5 color slivers with no Cavern of Souls in the format, but we'll see how it goes. I like the fact that we have a few months of sliver nuttiness in Standard.
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Welcome back, readers and speculators! Today's article will complete our cycle for Ravnica block picks at rotation.
Disclaimer #1
Given all the comments from the last article I think it's wise to clarify and emphasize what the buy prices I give mean. These are the prices I expect many stores to have, especially those who are buying larger quantities of a card. If Store X is paying twice what I'm describing but only buying four copies I don't see their numbers as all that relevant.
This being said I do accept that if four or more stores are all buying 24+ copies of a card at around one price and another larger store is buying 100 copies of a card at half that price, the price of the four stores is an acceptable price metric. That being said, I will grade myself on both this article and the last one at rotation to determine the accuracy of my estimations. I believe that self-evaluation is critical to strengthening one's speculative skills.
Disclaimer #2
Prices I give are based on the amount of money I would personally be willing to buy the card at on September 26, 2014 (Khans of Tarkir's release date). Thus they will no longer be Standard-legal and all demand should come from Eternal players, casual players, and collectors. (Stores will obviously have demand but that demand is driven by their expected demand of one of those three listed groups).
Now for the good stuff.
Gatecrash Picks
Aurelia, the Warleader - This card is sitting at a current buylist price between $2-3, depending on who you want to sell to and how many copies you want to unload. Her demand is not driven by Standard play whatsoever (we will ignore the random casual FNM deck).
That being the case her buylist price will likely barely drop at rotation. I'd be happy to pick these up at $2, but given the people who want her the most will likely only need one copy, the play on this one will likely be foils, which already buylist at $20-26 and will likely go up. She has four desirable traits; 1) She's awesome in Commander (and can be one), 2) She's a mythic, 3) She's an angel, 4) The artwork is gorgeous. If you pick her up, don't buy too many as they aren't that liquid (due to being one-of's).
Shocklands - Again we get to look at shocklands. I will stick to my similar logic from the previous article and say that the ones to target will be the color fixers for the Tier 1 Modern decks, with emphasis on the deck's major colors (i.e. not one-of's).
The only one on this list that fits the bill is Sacred Foundry and even then it's a minor fixer for the U/W/r decks. Ironically, it's also the most expensive shock currently and you can buylist them for $8.75. I think this one will likely tank the hardest and you'll be able to buy them (retail) for $7-8, so expect a buylist price of maybe $4-5.
If you're of the belief that shocks will likely not be reprinted again for awhile and that the Modern format will continue to gain a lot of traction then you can pay a little more for them, but WoTC has shown that they will print what they want when they want, which makes me less sure of shocks as a long-term investment (2+ years). They can also sprinkle reprints in other products, Commander and Duel Decks, specialty products, etc.
That being said, I'd be comfortable picking them up at rotation for the following prices, based heavily on the fact that most don't see a ton of Modern play, though I suspect a lot less Gatecrash was opened than RTR which does mean fewer of them.
Sacred Foundry ($4.50) - As stated it is a minor fixer in U/W/r control decks and run as a one-of.
Watery Grave ($3.50) - The buylist on this is already only $6 on the high and Esper Control is a strong Standard deck, as is Mono-Black Devotion with a blue splash. I actually expect most stores to pay even less since it sees little Modern play, but Underground Sea was the most expensive dual land even when it was seeing almost no Legacy play (the days before Deathrite) simply because the color combination is the strongest.
Godless Shrine ($3) - Orzhov is often a favorite color combination with casuals as you get lots of removal, some very powerful creatures, recursion, and a lot of lifelink. However, with B/W Tokens not making a big splash in Modern yet, the demand for this one will likely come mostly from casuals.
Breeding Pool ($3.5) - Blue-green wasn't played a whole lot in Modern outside of Scapeshift decks but with the Tarmotwin deck coming to light there is likely more demand for this card than when it first came out. I am also giving a bit of credit to the fact that blue is the most powerful competitive Constructed color and green is the most powerful casual color (EDH specifically).
Stomping Ground ($2.75) - Red-green is another Scapeshift/Tarmotwin land requirement, however neither would likely be considered one of the "pillars" of the format so demand will be more limited. Unfortunately, red-green is also not typically a major casual favorite color combination (except as part of a Naya build) so the casual demand will be less for this one. I expect this one to likely sit at $5-6 come rotation.
Obzedat, Ghost Council - While protection from sorcery-speed removal and the blink ability are nice, he just hasn't hit it off as a Commander. I think a major reason is that black-white EDH decks are often based around engines (Athreos) or tokens (Teysa), whereas Obzedat would be a more midrangey commander. I can see him falling to $3 at rotation, but with a limited demand I wouldn't want to pay any more than $1 in cash for him.
Prime Speaker Zegana - This card is designed for Commander players. Her ability draws cards and puts counters on her (two awesome abilities for a commander). Her color combination is as previously mentioned one of the more powerful ones and her current demand is already almost exclusively due to casual players (having seen very little limelight in Standard). Her current buylist price is $1 and that's likely what it'll be at rotation. I wouldn't mind picking her up for a buck.
Merciless Eviction - This card is criminally underplayed in EDH (primarily, I believe, because many casual players don't like exiling their own stuff), but flexible sweepers are powerful and exiling in EDH is huge. Its biggest problem may be that its color combination is so good at recursion and exiling its own targets is a non-bo.
These currently buylist for around $0.25 and given that almost all the demand is casual, I expect this one to stay like that. Barring any reprint this could probably be a $2 card in a year or two.
Dragon's Maze Picks
Deadbridge Chant - This card is in strong EDH colors. It provides continual card advantage and has the ability to be abused with cards that exile cards from graveyards so you can keep recurring the same card(s) over and over. It's currently buylisting for around $0.6 and I'd be happy picking them up for between $0.5-0.6 at rotation.
As with other EDH/casual all-stars the real target will be foils, which currently have a 5x multiplier (buylisting for around $3.50). If the foil buylist drops any at rotation I'd definitely pick foils over regular, but you can't really go wrong with either.
Progenitor Mimic - Another awesome EDH card (and in blue-green). This card's power level is pretty insane especially since you aren't forced to target your own creatures and so many creatures that are played have ETB effects that you can really abuse this guy. Nonfoils currently buylist for around $1.50 (again almost all due to casual demand) so don't expect a drop at rotation. Foils are already buylisting for $9 (a 6x multiplier), if you can get them for this I'd suggest doing so as this will likely be an $18-25 foil in a year or so.
Ral Zarek - Typically planeswalkers have a price floor of around $4-5. Ral's abilities aren't particularly backbreaking, though the ability to untap any permanent can certainly be used to abuse big-mana artifacts or lands and tapping an opponent's big blocker isn't a terrible thing either. The second ability is pretty weak in a format of giant creatures.
The ultimate doesn't honestly feel very "ultimatey" to me, however, he does fit well into the "random" themed EDH decks (you know, the ones that run Krark's Thumb and Goblin Bomb). While I'm not big on this guy I also feel that unless he finds his way into a dual deck he can probably end up $8-9 in a year or so.
Master of Cruelties - Another casual favorite (and I admit my favorite card when I first saw the full spoiler), he's basically an auto-include in every Kaalia of the Vast EDH deck and quite honestly every red-black EDH deck. His ability is ridiculously powerful and having both first strike and deathtouch makes him an amazing blocker. He's the perfect rattlesnake card.
He currently buylists for $1.35-$1.50 and given none of that demand is from Standard it's unlikely to change at rotation. Currently foil copies are buylisting for $4-6 which is incredibly low for such a powerful casual card and retail price shows him sitting at $7. I expect a bump in both within a year or so.
Voice of Resurgence - Finally we have an Eternal-playable card...by which I mean Modern. Voice has proven itself to be a powerful creature that can fit in several Tier 1 Modern decks (both Pod variants and Junk midrange decks).
He is currently buylisting for around $11 and despite finding a home in Modern I still imagine he'll drop to around $8 (probably $12-13 retail), as he does still see a decent amount of play in Standard. I would definitely pick them up at that time.
The fact that my entire Dragon's Maze pick up list is only five cards (all of which are mythic) just helps prove how weak this set was and the fact that Modern Masters came out a couple months after it released meant that even fewer drafts occurred than normal. This is definitely the type of set in which a card could breakout and double or triple in value after a strong PT showing and all bets would be on Voice.
TL;DR
The last two sets of Return to Ravnica block are chock full of casual favorites but are clearly lacking the real power level of Return to Ravnica itself. It's also important to keep in mind that drafting of this set was:
3 months - Triple Return to Ravnica (RTR)
3 months - Triple Gatecrash (GTC)
3 months - Dragon's Maze (DGM)-GTC-RTR (but Modern Masters released and there was a definite drop in these drafts occurring at LGS's as players spent their money on MMA.
This means that when comparing the number of overall cards available, there's more RTR than GTC, and more GTC than DGM. Given the overall power level and desirability of RTR cards I'd guess the ratios are probably something like 45%/33%/22%. I know when I won FNM's during this block I always picked RTR packs for prize as did almost everyone else who won, though this is mostly conjecture on my part. If anyone has access to the actual numbers, let me know in the comments.
What this means is that while RTR has the largest list of pickups since it had the most powerful cards, the other two sets have the higher likelihood of a price jumping drastically if one of the cards does prove to be more powerful than we'd thought simply because there are less of them in the supply.
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We don't have a full set yet, but a significant portion of Magic 2015 has been spoiled and it's time to start thinking about the future. I'm not one to pay much mind to pre-rotation Standard when the new Core Set drops, and, before a single card from Khans of Tarkir is spoiled, it's hard to say how post-rotation Standard is going to look. But that doesn't mean that we don't know anything.
A Notable Omission
With Supreme Verdict leaving Standard (finally), a lot of players are wondering if and when another Wrath of God will be entering the format. The inclusion of Mass Calcify in M15 strongly suggests that Khans of Tarkir will be the earliest we can expect another four-mana white sweeper.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mass Calcify
Whether Khans will contain said sweeper is an interesting question though. With Devotion being the marquee mechanic of Theros block, Wrath of God runs completely counter to most of what Theros block cards attempt to accomplish.
Devotion strategies currently see play despite Supreme Verdict, largely because of the color-intensive permanents from Return to Ravnica block. Theros really doesn't have much in the way of quality Devotion enablers--you might have noticed that Devotion didn't exactly dominate the Block Pro Tour.
Perhaps Devotion just won't be a player going forward. Anger of the Gods and Drown in Sorrow will certainly try to keep it down. I'm not fully convinced that Devotion won't be pushed a little more come Khans, though, and the absence of Day of Judgment would certainly be a way to support such permanent-based strategies.
Planeswalkers
Chandra was in M14, so nothing new or exciting there, and we all have a good idea of how powerful the original Liliana is. Two of the remaining three, however, have my attention.
To make things easy, I feel like this Jace is just garbage. It can't protect itself without pushing way outside of ultimate range, and graveyards won't matter pre-Khans, which makes its +1 presently useless. Even if graveyards did matter, I think it would take a considerably powerful graveyard mechanic to want a card that puts cards in the graveyard with very little selection. Threshold comes to mind, but until I see something to push him, I don't expect to see this Jace at the competitive tables.
Ajani and Nissa, however, are sweet.
Ajani V is a huge upgrade for aggressive white decks. While Ajani, Caller of Pride is excellent both in terms of efficiency and raw damage output when paired with large creatures, Ajani Steadfast plays much better with multiple bodies. Outside of only adding one Devotion, which I don't see as a significant drawback in that particular color, this Ajani seems like an upgrade for white aggressive decks over the previously existing mono-white Ajanis.
Nissa is a far cry from the most exciting Planeswalker we've seen--even at five mana--but I like the idea of Green Devotion with her and Eidolon of Blossoms. Nissa's ability to only untap Forests will likely relegate her to mono-green or green-heavy decks anyhow, so you may as well go deep. The inability to untap Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx was probably intentional, but we have access to other means of doing so.
In a devotion shell, I could see Nykthos enabling some strong shenanigans. For this reason, I think it's no coincidence that the green soul has by far the weakest ability. Soul of New Phyrexia has an ability that I wouldn't be unhappy to have access to in a green deck, so that's something to keep in mind.
To that end, creatures with ETB triggers just tend to be good, so hosing them really can't be bad. A flash threat in a deck with Spear of Heliod and Ajani Steadfast can also really mess up combat math. Three mana is a lot for an aggressive deck, so it's possible that he won't show up as more than a two-of in Standard, but I at least expect it to show up in that capacity.
Chief Engineer
I am willing to entertain the possibility that this card will lead to a new flavor of Modern deck, and the odds point to Chief Engineer seeing some competitive play.
He's definitely worse than Etherium Sculptor in traditional Eggs deck, but what about something that plays both of these creatures in addition to Grand Architect? Clearly this deck would need a way to draw extra cards. Thoughtcast is a shoe-in. Maybe something with Krark-Clan Ironworks and Ichor Wellspring? I like the idea of an Ironworks combo deck with access to a beatdown plan to combat Stony Silence.
I'm probably not the guy to break it, but it sure looks breakable.
Sign in Blood
It's a reprint and it's a common, but this card really changes Standard.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sign in Blood
Black is retaining two two-power one drops going into Khans in Tormented Hero and Gnarled Scarhide. Herald of Torment and Master of Feasts are no slouches either. Sign in Blood works perfectly in aggressive black decks as a way to reload or just as a form of reach.
Sign in Blood also does its job in slower, more controlling decks--particularly those planning to gain the life they paid back with Grey Merchant of Asphodel. This card is quite strong and it's no secret.
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Speaking of black decks, I see the Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth reprint as being surprisingly relevant. If Mana Confluence and painlands are what we're going to have for manafixing, then two color black decks with access to Urborg will be able to take less damage to their equally consistent manabases. It's also really good with Nykthos, though with Nightveil Specter rotating, it remains to be seen how relevant it will be.
Whether you're a red heroic deck, à la Boss Sligh, or Prophetic Flamespeaker gets its shot in the limelight, Ingerno Fist will almost assuredly show up in Standard.
Inferno Fist 1R
Enchantment - Aura
Enchant creature you control.
Enchanted creature gets +2/+0.
R, Sacrifice Inferno Fist: Inferno Fist deals 2 damage to target creature or player.
This card will often be worth four damage. Sometimes it'll just be another bad aura, and sometimes it will go on an uncontested Satyr Hoplite and go to town. The upside is easily worth the risk.
Stoke the Flames
Speaking of cards that are worth four damage, this one is awesome.
Stoke the Flames 2RR
Instant
Convoke
Stoke the Flames deals 4 damage to target creature or player.
If you ever find your Eidolon of the Great Revels and Prophetic Flamespeakers in a board stall, this is a hella efficient trick to leave up during your opponent's turn.
At RRR I could have seen it being played in Modern or even Legacy, but as it is, I believe it will be confined to Standard, where it would probably just be way too good at RRR.
Sunblade Elf
Losing Temple Garden is going to make this card pretty sad, but in a white enough Selesnya deck, this is an Isamaru with a Glorious Anthem to supplement Ajani and Spear of Heliod.
If any of the new "Kird Apes" see constructed play, it will be this one. The downside of being a one drop for G in a Plains-heavy deck is likely greater than the upside, but I expect to lose to this card at least once in Standard.
Enemy Painlands
And lastly, we have the most impactful cards on post-RtR Standard.
With scrylands, Mana Confluence and enemy painlands being the manafixing available, I would imagine that aggressive decks will be able to walk all over slower decks that don't curve out perfectly on Sylvan Caryatid into Courser of Kruphix.
We do know that Khans will be bringing a new sort of dual land in addition to what we have, and it's entirely possible that they benefit controlling decks more than aggressive decks, but until I know for sure, I'm inclined to believe that attacking is going to be very good in the immediate future of Standard.
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Do you evaluate the Souls differently? Are you excited about something that I didn't highlight? Do you think Jace is actually playable? Let me know in the comments!
