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My MTG Fantasy

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Hey, all!

I stayed up very, very late last night buylisting. As in, not last night, as in this morning until 7 AM. I slept in a bit and had a crazy dream. Since I spent so much time the last few weeks buyliting and I spent most of my time doing Magic-related stuff in general, the game has crept into my dreams. It seems I'm not safe from Magic anywhere.

In the dream last night, I had bought a collection on Craigslist and when I was loading the boxes into my car, the seller handed me a piece of paper and told me not to lose it. I decided at once that the paper must contain the "codes" for the collection and I couldn't lose it or the collection wouldn't "work". What kind of code, though?

When I woke up, I decided the code must have been a cheat code for the collection. I started brainstorming a bit and came up with some Magic collection cheat codes I wish were real. Got some ideas of your own? Leave them in the comment section.

 

Up, Up, Down, Down, Right, Right - All cards are set-sorted and alphabetized.

Down, Up, Left, Right, Down, Up, Left, Right - The non-basic lands section will be stripped of all rares but will contain a Wasteland.

Up, Down, Down, Right, Right - All Dazes, Spell Snares, Submerges and Merfolk creatures in the bulk boxes are now foil.

Left, Left, Right, Right, Up, Down, Up, Down - "My aunt bought me something called Portal 3 Kingdoms but it sounded like it's for noobs so I never opened the box."

Down, Down, Down, Up, Left - All artist signatures are replaced by Richard Garfield's signature.

A, B, A, C, A, B - "These are my cheating boyfriend's cards- I couldn't possibly charge more than $1."

X, Square, Square, Triangle, X, Circle - All cards in HP condition become MP, MP becomes SP, SP becomes NM.

Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Select - All instances of fourth edition cards are replaced with cards from Alternate fourth edition; all instances of Alternate fourth edition are replaced with Summer edition.

 

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: A Momentary Glance at Standard

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Happy Monday, loyal Insiders! I believe I can confidently say that last week was relatively calm in the world of MTG finance. Sure, dual lands are exploding but that’s last week’s news now.

Trop

To dwell at length on these recent price bumps would be pretty redundant to last week’s article. I’ll just say that they are all on the rapid rise and if you can find any dual lands at older prices, you’d be wise to acquire.

They’re on the Reserved List and with SCG’s recent bump in buy/sell prices, my confidence in their support of this format is highly renewed. In fact, I find myself tempted to gradually trade into a Legacy deck so I can once again experience the “magic” that is Legacy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for tropical island
There was an error retrieving a chart for underground sea

Let’s Talk Boring – Standard

By now most of you know that Standard is my least favorite MTG format. The metagame is usually evolutionary and exciting for about a month before it’s quickly solved. And watching mono-colored decks square off against each other, along with slow control decks, is not my cup of tea. Big time snooze fest.

But just because the format is boring doesn’t mean money can’t be made. I often ignore Standard for six months of a given year, but I believe there are some prime acquisition targets right now. For example, I think it’s time to play the mana-fixing land market: Temples!

There was an error retrieving a chart for temple of abandon
There was an error retrieving a chart for temple of enlightenment

For those of you who are unfamiliar, I’ve done thorough research linking price trends of mana-fixing dual lands in Standard going back to Worldwake manlands.

Sadly I can’t even find a satisfactory price chart dating back far enough, so you’ll have to take my word on this one. Creeping Tar Pit and Celestial Colonnade went from cheap to expensive once Shards of Alara block rotated out of Standard and these (along with fetches of course) became the primary mana-fixing resource of the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for raging ravine
There was an error retrieving a chart for creeping tar pit

The same trend continued for Scars of Mirrodin dual lands and Innistrad dual lands. Fortunately there are plenty of data to illustrate the latter’s spike.

woodland

Notice how the price of the Innistrad duals increase by 2x-3x once Standard rotated. Even with shocklands entering the format, the mana-fixing duals from Innistrad spiked handily.

My recommendation: the time to acquire Temples is just about here. There’s still a little time left as we have one more set in Theros block. With ten Temples, the demand will be spread out more thinly than usual across all of these lands, but the general demand for them will be net-positive. The least favored Temples probably won’t hit $15 like Innistrad lands did a year and a half ago, but the cheapest ones will rise.

Temple

Perhaps the already-expensive Born of the Gods Temples don’t have as much upside. But chances are they will in fact remain more expensive than their Theros counterparts strictly because supply will be less.

Either way, I plan on acquiring Theros versions with cash and Born of the Gods versions in trades. As for the Journey Into Nyx Temples--I hope to grab these fairly quickly as they’ll be the hardest to find next year.

Another Standard Stand-Out

Talk of Herald of Torment is all over the QS Forums, and for good reason. The flying demon is powerful given his casting cost, and he also could work well with the black god due to the two black mana symbols in his casting cost.

Herald of Torment

I’m in for a couple sets and I’ll be watching Block results closely to estimate how strong he can be once Standard rotates.

Speaking of strong cards post-rotation, I normally like to acquire the wrath effect of every Standard block--it just tends to pay out. Terminus made me significant profit a couple years ago and Supreme Verdict displayed an identical trend last year.

What’s the right target for Theros block? Fated Retribution? I don’t know, instant-speed is nice but at seven mana this doesn’t quite fit the job description.

Fated

Once Supreme Verdict leaves Standard, there will have to be a most-popular wrath effect to take over in Standard. Control decks really struggle without them.

If nothing is given to us in Journey Into Nyx, then perhaps Fated Retribution is the best we’ve got. Technically it was a one-of in Marius Cholewa’s SCG Invitational Esper Control list (alongside four Supreme Verdicts of course). So maybe there’s hope for the seven-mana instant after all.

My plan will be to acquire copies of the best wrath effect in Theros block once Journey Into Nyx is released. If that happens to be Fated Retribution then so be it. I’ll buy a few sets for $10 and test my “wrath effect hypothesis” yet again.

That’s All I Got

With respect to Standard, I have little else on my radar. The format is just not inspiring to me. Cards that would normally tempt me, like Thassa, God of the Sea and Master of Waves, are risky due to their heavy reliance on Return to Ravnica cards. The devotion ability could become much worse when we say farewell to Return to Ravnica block, and without knowing anything about the next block I struggle to acquire anything too aggressively outside of my usual strategies.

Perhaps you have some Standard targets worth looking at? If so, I am all ears--please post your thoughts in the comments section below. In all honesty I’ve been making such a killing in Modern that I’ve completely neglected Standard. It’s likely others have done similarly, which means there could be opportunity in Standard if we know where to look.

The format is stagnant and uninteresting now but that could change in a heartbeat with one winning set. And if Journey doesn’t get there, then Standard rotation sure will.

In the meantime I’ll be on the lookout for favorable prices on dual lands. MOTL seems to be a good place for this--it’s a good way to shop played duals using pictures to help you determine true condition (versus rolling the dice on TCG Player). I’ll also continue sitting on my remaining Modern staples such as Restoration Angel and Scars of Mirrodin fast lands, which still have more upside this summer.

Thicket

And thus summarizes my current approach to MTG finance.

…

Sigbits

    • Got any foil Wear // Tear for trade? I had no idea these were so expensive, but when a set is so under-opened like Dragon’s Maze was, even a random foil sideboard uncommon has a chance of becoming financially relevant.

 

Wear

  • SCG has been sold out of Tundra at $199.99 and Tropical Island at $149.99 for a few days now. I can all but guarantee these will receive a significant price bump in the coming week or two. I expect a $50 bump on each.
  • It took months, but Star City Games is finally sold out of foil Liliana of the Veils at $249.99. This only makes sense because that’s the going eBay price now. In other words, SCG may restock a couple more at this price but once those rapidly sell out we’re headed to $299.99 next.

It Might As Well Be You

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I spent the entire last week or so under the impression that Tropical Island was $300. It's not.

Some of the other blue duals spiked, so I assumed a card that was in the land base of RUG Delver and BUG, two of the most played decks in Legacy, went up, too.

What happens when you assume?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tropical Island
There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Island

 

Either Volcanic Island will go back to $150, or Tropical Island will be $300 soon. What do you think?

trop

 

trop

 

trop

 

Spend $100k? Is that hyperbole or are we looking at guaranteed free money here? All I know is that I spent longer than I should have just assuming that Tropical Island had already gone up. You will double up buying at its current price, and someone is going to do it. The mere act of beginning to buy these up is going to make the price go up, and with no reprint possible, it seems like the price will never go down.

I have always been big on lands and now it no different. I am cashing in on the Ancient Tombs I got at $10 and Trop looks like the perfect place to put that money.

So with some in the finance community considering mortgaging their house to double up on Dual lands, are you in? Someone is going to double their money buying $150 Tropical Islands. Someone is going to more than double up on Bayou. I don't need to "pump" the cards - they're pumped. This is going to happen. It might as well be you who makes the money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bayou
There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Better Than Christmas

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Every once in a while I come across something that gives me a bit of a chuckle, whether it's because it's funny itself or because it reminds me of how I used to be. These days I buy my boosters by the case and treat the cards like inventory as soon as they're out of the wrapper. But it wasn't always that way. I remember Christmas morning splitting a booster box of Mercadian Masques or Unglued with my brother felt like a big deal. Some people still feel like that. I came across this Amazon review and it brought me back to a lot of Christmas mornings from my past. Maybe I'll go bust a box just for nostalgia's sake. I may even keep some of the cards and play with them.

No, probably not that. Let's not go crazy.

Better than Christmas

 

 

I enjoy the sentiment a lot. Pro tip for the rest of you- if you don't want people to think you use illicit drugs, insisting repeatedly that you do not use illicit drugs despite no one asking whether you did or not is probably not the way to go about it. This one goes out to all of you lovers of cardboard crack.

So how about it? Got any Magic-related Christmas (or Hannukah, or Kwanzaa, or Wookiee Life Day) memories? Did an entire booster box feel like a big deal? How about a Starter deck in your stocking? A pack at the grocery store? Leave it in the comments and let's see who was spoiled as a kid and who did what I did and mowed lawns for a whole summer to buy a display box of Fourth Edition Starter Decks (I needed lands, OK?)

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Predicting Vintage Masters on MTGO

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Vintage Masters (VMA) is on its way. Very little is known about this set as of yet, just that the Power 9 is coming to MTGO in June. It's also been stated that these fabled cards will be given the treatment they deserve when they are released, i.e. they are going to released as the 'royalty' of magic.

From the speculator's perspective, I've been thinking about some specific predictions about VMA. Here I've broken them down into 'Strong' and 'Weak' predictions. 'Strong' predictions are ones that I am confident in and that I am willing to act on. 'Weak' predictions should be treated more like possibilities; something to keep in mind but not necessarily to act on.

Strong Predictions

  • Rishadan Port and Wasteland will be reprinted as rares in VMA.

This one has some straightforward logic to it. If the Power 9 are going to enter the MTGO market as the royalty of magic, there's going to have be a balancing of prices among cards considered non-royalty. Roughly speaking, I think it's safe to expect the Power 9 to occupy the upper tier of online prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for rishadan port
There was an error retrieving a chart for wasteland

The line I'd draw to make this distinction is roughly 100 tix. Any card approaching this upper tier, such as these two nonbasic lands, should be expected to see a reprint in order to knock down their price.

As for shifting Wasteland from uncommon to rare, just keep in mind that old uncommons are roughly equivalent to rares from the post-mythic era. There is also precedence for this shift. See Sinkhole, Force of Will and Mana Drain as prime examples of an uncommon getting the upgrade in rarity when they are brought to MTGO.

There was an error retrieving a chart for sinkhole
There was an error retrieving a chart for mana drain

  • Staples from Mercadian Masques block will be reprinted.

Although this overlaps the first prediction due to Rishadan Port, I think it's worth pointing out why Port is such a pricey card on MTGO. The way that most cards get injected into the MTGO market is through drafts. Invasion block was the first set available to be drafted on MTGO, but for Mirage block up to Invasion, each set had to have a special online release.

Generally this means that cards from Mirage block, Tempest block, Urza's block and Masques block are all available in a lower supply than they would be otherwise. That's why cards from these sets can command some of the highest prices.

Mirage block and Tempest block were both designed with Limited play in mind. Both are reasonable draft formats, albeit with some unbalanced cards and colours. Urza's block continues in this spirit and is home to the many mistakes that triggered 'Combo Winter' in what was then known as Type 2 (today's Standard). However, for Limited play, all three of these blocks have merit in their own way. On MTGO, the nostalgia factor should keep these as semi-regular guests in the flashback draft queue.

There was an error retrieving a chart for tolarian academy
There was an error retrieving a chart for time spiral

Masques block is a bit of a special case. This block was an attempt at lowering the power level of cards, in reaction to the overpowered nature of the previous block. The weakness of the creatures from Masques block makes for a rather dull limited environment with many ground stalls and long games.

WoTC even eschewed releasing these sets individually on MTGO and packed each of Mercadian Masques, Nemesis and Prophecy into one collated booster. When this block returns as a flashback draft, it's not well attended.

Thus, due to less than enthusiastic response of players to this block, these cards are harder to inject into the online supply than the other older blocks. It's the lack of uptake in flashback drafts that will make VMA a good opportunity to fix this supply imbalance by inserting Masques block cards into a more compelling draft format.

  • The original dual lands will not be reprinted in this set.

These are obviously big components of both the Legacy and Vintage formats. In paper, they carry a price tag to match. On MTGO they are relatively available and affordable, and are roughly one tenth the price. These are not the hurdles to playing these formats and do not need a reprint for the balancing of prices. As I've suggested above, WoTC might even try to balance prices around these cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for underground sea
There was an error retrieving a chart for volcanic island

  • Rares and mythic rares that are Modern staples will not be reprinted in this set.

Although VMA will be modeled after Modern Masters (MMA), any overlap in card selection that risks cannibalizing future sales of MMA or MMA 2 will be avoided. This means that the Zendikar fetchlands will not be reprinted here, as well as Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique.

  • Jace, the Mind Sculptor will not be reprinted in this set.

This card was widely available to players with the release of From the Vault: 20, so there's no compelling supply issue with this card. Everyone who wanted to own this iconic card had the opportunity to do so at a reasonable cost.

Weak Predictions

  • WoTC is going to underestimate the demand for the Power 9.

This is a broader prediction, but I think there will be substantial demand for the Power 9. Early on in the release of VMA, I expect this will result in the market exploring the very top end of the demand curve, with Moxen going for 150+ tix and foil versions going for 300+ tix. The super-mythic rarity will help to allow this and I think WoTC will err on the side of caution with the relative rarity of the Power 9.

There was an error retrieving a chart for mox jet
There was an error retrieving a chart for mox sapphire

The result is that the uptake of VMA drafts will be quite strong, at least early on. But with no redemption to remove supply from the market and the niche nature of Legacy and Vintage as constructed formats, the prices on non-Power 9 cards in VMA will crash.

  • Force of Will and Lion's Eye Diamond will not be reprinted in VMA.

Both of these cards will have been released as MOCS promos this spring, Force of Will for the second time in 16 months. It looks like WoTC wants to reserve the ability to award high value reprints through this avenue. The addition of these cards to VMA won't be necessary to spur interest in the set, so it makes more sense to hold them in reserve for future MOCS promos or other reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for force of will
There was an error retrieving a chart for lion's eye diamond

A Note on Theros Block Boosters

Last week's article took a look at how the payouts from events had been affecting the price of Theros (THS) and Born of the Gods (BNG) boosters. The takeaway from that article was that payouts had been depressing prices on THS boosters and raising prices on BNG boosters. This effect did not go unnoticed by WoTC (aka the MTGO Central Bank). With an eye to stabilizing prices, they made slight tweaks to the prizes of some events.

These changes will contribute to a positive outlook for THS boosters. This effect will probably be small; I don't think there's a good short-term opportunity on THS boosters from this change, but I think it's safe to say we won't see lower prices on THS boosters until the release of M15. The profitable gains in price will probably only come after the release of Journey Into Nyx, but if you want to time the bottom, this is your moment.

As for BNG boosters, I expect these to drift down in price until they find a new equilibrium. They might not drift very far though. Settling in the 3.2 to 3.3 tix range seems entirely possible by the end of April.

Fearless Magic Card Inventory

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Hey, all!

Earlier this week in my alticle I hinted that I might be transitioning in my role here at Quiet Speculation. Jason's Alticle is no more. Instead, I will be writing an Insider "Alticle" each week. If that's not going to be enough of a fix for you, or you're not an Insider, fear not, because I will be posting something cool for you here on the free side every. Damn. Day.

If that's not enough of a fix, and you're already reading me on Gathering Magic and MTG Headquarters and listening to the podcast and following @jasonealt on twitter, you may need to get a life.

Since my Insider Alticle is going to focus on how I make money doing things that aren't speculating, I have been thinking about how I am going to write about Inventory. I found a couple very good examples around the web.

 

Now I Know My ABC's

This first one  from Ryan Bushard was an inspiration.

It may seem tedious at first, but organization is a big key to moving forward—even if your collection is manageable now, if it continues to grow—as most hope it will—it is better to have a handle on the problem before it forms. I wish I had someone to have told me these same tips and tricks years ago, but take it from me: This is one time-consuming effort that may not seem worth it at first, but in the long run, you will be glad you kept a hand on it.

Ryan advocates starting any project, acquisition or buylisting venture with a full set sort and alphabetization. Sounds like a lot of work? He makes the cast for it being worth it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Long-Term PlansThis ongoing series on Brainstorm Brewery is really shaping up as well. Part 2 is on the site as well if you'd like to read more. I think the author has some useful and inspiring info here.

Mistake #3: Ignoring Losses

Losses will kill you, as I said above. We are all inclined to shuffle these experiences to the back of our minds, but it is important that you recognize inventory-related losses. You can’t just forget about them or call it bad luck or stick them in the bad spec box. Here is an example with some numbers to illustrate:

If I buy five copies of Snapcaster Mage at $20 ($100 total investment), then sell them for $30 cash each, I have $150 for a profit of $50 or 50%. Awesome, 50% is great. But if my dog chews just one of those cards up (or more likely, I confuse collecting and finance again and stick it in my cube) and I can only sell four, I have $120. My initial investment is the same $100, but now my profit is only 20%, meaning I’ve lost more than half of my profit because one-fifth of my inventory disappeared.

I hope that's enough food for thought for now. Expect my first Insider Alticle early next week!

 

 

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Visual Sideboarding Primer: Standard Esper Control

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Editor's Note: Since it's legal to use pre-prepared notes between matches at sanctioned events, we strongly encourage our readers to print off these visual sideboarding guides and bring them to FNM, PTQs and any other events. Every advantage counts!


I’d like to start off today by thanking QuietSpeculation readers for their support last week. My primer on sideboarding with Mono Black Devotion drew lots of great comments and showed that there was clear interest on the subject, even from players who weren’t interested in playing the deck themselves. The comments generated the excellent discussion I’ve come to expect from this site since joining the forums last year, and I look forward to more in the weeks to come.

Last Week's "You Make The Play"

Last week my article wrapped up with a “You Make the Play” section. I shared a sample Mono Black hand, and I asked what people would do with it. The question here was whether or not to keep or mulligan the hand, but more importantly why?  Here's the hand.  For the full details on the state of the game and match, refer to the article.

How likely are we to win if we do keep? Does the hand secure a win 100% of the time, or merely just let us play ball? Realistically it’s somewhere in between.  The hand contains two discard spells and all of the best action spells up the curve, though we do lack removal. Assuming two of the next three draws are land, this hand is quite solid.

With 25 more land in our 53 card deck, and being on the draw, some hypergeometric calculations show that we are 72.57% favorites to hit our second land drop, but that’s rather meaningless. It is clear that we need to hit our third land, which was echoed in the comments. Calculations show we are only 45.68% likely to make both our second and third land drops.

A keep would put us into a clearly disadvantageous situation, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it is a mulligan. We must also weigh what a mulligan accomplishes. If we mulligan, are we likely to win more than 45.68% of games?

Assuming we win if we make our hand, and if a mulligan in this spot costs us more than 4.32% win percentage, then this hand is a keep, otherwise it is a mulligan. The value of that initial card in the context of a given game situation is impossible to quantify completely, so I believe in this case there really is no right or wrong answer because the margin is so thin. If there was hard Magic Online mulligan data available I would be interested in seeing it and forming a more scientific answer as to the cost of a mulligan in the mirror. I’d enjoy hearing others’ thoughts on the matters.

There was an error retrieving a chart for duress
There was an error retrieving a chart for thoughtseize

One final note: the hand contains no removal.  That means it would fold to an opponent who led with Duress or Thoughtseize and followed it up with Pack Rat. This does not necessarily exclude it from being keepable, but it must be noted. This was mentioned in the comments and it’s the sort of analysis that needs to go into each and every opening hand in every matchup.  (Kudos to commenter “Alex” for his well-explained answer)

Sideboarding with Esper Control

The star of the GP last weekend was Esper control, which took both of the finals slots. The maindecks of finalists Kyle Boggemes and Brad Nelson were nearly identical, with Kyle playing a second Syncopate while Brad chose to play a second Last Breath. The sideboards were quite different but it was Kyle who took the trophy, and it is his sideboard I will be using for my primer today.

Esper Control

Spells

1 AEtherling
3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
2 Azorius Charm
4 Detention Sphere
4 Dissolve
2 Doom Blade
1 Last Breath
4 Sphinx's Revelation
4 Supreme Verdict
2 Syncopate
2 Thoughtseize

Land

1 Godless Shrine
4 Hallowed Fountain
5 Island
2 Mutavault
2 Plains
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Temple of Enlightenment
4 Temple of Silence
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Archangel of Thune
2 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Duress
2 Negate
4 Nightveil Specter
1 Pithing Needle
1 Revoke Existence
1 Thoughtseize
1 Ultimate Price

Black Devotion

OUT


IN

Your post-board strategy increases your threat count and your creatures allow you to apply pressure by attacking them in ways they are not prepared to deal with. Pithing Needle stops Erebos, God of the Dead or Underworld Connections, but in the latter case be sure to name the land they enchanted.  Be aware they'll still be able to tap it for mana.

Doom Blade is an auto-cut, Supreme Verdict goes because it’s functionally a 1-for-1 against savvy players. Azorius Charm is the weakest card. Thoughtseize goes because you are not interested in trading 1-for-1 against their strategy.

Mirror

OUT


IN

The creatures help you gain the initiative, and possibly catch opponents with their pants down. You also bring in the typical control-killer cards: more discard and counterspells. Nearly all of the removal comes out, but do not hesitate to bring some in for game 3 in if the opponent chose to bring in extra creatures in game 2 in response to your lack of removal.

Monoblue Devotion

OUT


IN

Nightveil Specter is fully powered in this matchup because you'll be able to cast anything you hit and it blocks well. Archangel of Thune is capable of blowing them out by acting like a Baneslayer Angel. Revoke Existence removes Thassa, God of the Sea and Bident of Thassa. Elspeth, Sun's Champion is slow and cannot kill any of their threats and the tokens match up poorly against Thassa, God of the Sea.Dissolve is too clunky and slow in this match. Keeping in some of the 6-drops over utility spells is also a reasonable choice.

Burn

OUT


IN

Bring in threats to pressure their burn, as anything thrown at creatures keeps it away from your face. Creatures also help close out the game faster in racing situations. Most of the removal comes out against their nearly creaturless deck, and Elspeth is too slow to do much.

GRx Monsters

OUT


IN

Pithing Needle is great against planeswalkers, so do not hesitate to use it pre-emptively. Jace, Architect of Thought plays poorly against their high-powered attackers, but it’s still excellent for generating card advantage.

There was quite a lot of discussion and disagreement about the Mono Black sideboarding tactics last week.  I encourage this to continue.  There is no one "right way" to sideboard, so if you disagree or have questions, be sure to voice your opinion in a comment.  Use the Facebook and Twitter share buttons at the top of the article to send this article to your friends and get their opinions as well.

This Week's "You Make The Play"

You Make the Play

Would you keep this hand?  Why or why not?

 

Insider: The Midas Touch

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Foils.

Either love them or hate them, they are a part of the Magic Universe. Most people have chosen to express a large amount of disdain for what I feel is the single most under appreciated vehicle for financiers. Where would we be if there wasn't that irreverent lust for that which must be PIMPED! 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage
There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

Over the course, some have viewed foils as an unnecessary distraction. A spanner in the works. A higher cost, higher probability of stagnation, higher chance of price gouging, and just an overall bad practice. These are all the reasons you should be also focusing on these incredible diamonds in the rough. Let us not confuse this. There's a certain je n'est ce qui when it comes to foils. People lose their minds for them, or could not care less! I'll give you a prime example of the absurdity of foils. I can sum it up for you in one profound statement:  Take a look at TCGplayer. How often is there a listing with a reasonable expectation to have a foil for sale, but DOES NOT?

Think about this for a minute. One of the leading price suppliers in the industry does not have a consistent supply of sellers listing foil copies. This alone makes the process of correctly pricing a card incredibly hard. How do we gauge the price on this? Simple. I'll offer you an amount I am comfortable with.

What just happened here? If the key hasn't been turned in the lock, let me break it down for you. The crutch that TCGplayer, Star City, et al. provide for your every day pricing needs - it's a fallacy. The truth is that many financiers don't or should not pay attention to daily pricing of what a card is worth NOW. If I am discussing a card with you, and I am asking about a value, I guarantee that no where in my mind are your values the same as mine. I have three values: Buy Price, Max Buy In Price, & Expected Future Retail Value. The only one that can come close to that same value is whatever your expectation of value is. For you are about to trade sell me.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rishadan Port
There was an error retrieving a chart for Rhystic Study

Foiled Again

I cannot recall how many times someone believed I was either lying or "pulling the wool over" them when I would get shot down on a price, and then immediately ask what they want. Typically, if I get shot down on a card - we both want that card for similar reasons. The difference is, I'm willing to deal on the basis of a future value. So, with that in mind - I'll find out what your number is. What is the number you are willing to really let that card go at? What is the offer you can't refuse? It's worth $50 and let's say your number is $60. Ok. I agree and do the transaction. You feel you've just made a great trade, and in actuality you have. Here's the difference: That item might not leave my possession until it's worth $100. Did you still make a great trade? ABSOLUTELY. This is creating a win/win situation while thinking 4th dimensionally.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Past in Flames
There was an error retrieving a chart for Pyromancer Ascension

Now, to bring this full circle. Look at it a different way: Let's say we are talking about a Foil ______________. The information available is spotty, and prices range for current market price being $40-$65. From the get go, I've made sure you understand that I am investing in this card because at some point I will resell it. I'm COMFORTABLE investing in this card at the $35 range - mainly because of having to properly account for market fluctuations, where the cards real value could stabilize at, etc. etc. There's a number of factors that will determine my asking price, but for this scenario - it's below current market.  If I'm striking at the right time on this card, the future will be entirely murky. (That's why it's called speculation, remember.) Now the ball is completely in your court if that number works for you.

This is really where the bias of the market comes into play. You could not care less for this Foil ________________. It fell into your lap when you last drafted in pack 1 pick 1. It does not matter the reason. The importance of it is just is there for you, plus - you don't trade often enough for it to do much more than just sit in your binder. You're not going to strike while the iron is hot, and you might not even list it on eBay.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ephara, God of the Polis
There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Enlightenment

How many times have you seen this situation? For those that are constantly on the trade floors this is where you can really create a win/win situation. Think about it though. The reason why the foil market is such a circulating nimbus of smoke and mirrors is because it requires more work. A healthy percentage could care less, other's LOVE them. This disparity relies on one huge factor. You. The time you put in. The work you put in. Are you going to be able to find that person that is looking for that Foil ________________? If you can't reasonably answer that question - either because you aren't trading often, you aren't selling often or you are just not actively buylisting weekly, then YES avoid foils. Or, focus on the long term advantage of what foils can do for you.

There was an error retrieving a chart for
There was an error retrieving a chart for splinter twin

In all actuality though, Foils are a market ripe for change. It is a market ridden with untapped potential and now that the global marketplace and infrastructure really is in place, there is no reason to avoid that cross section of players. I, myself, have invested a great amount of time and effort into a foiled Modern deck. Why? Because it will appreciate faster, I put in the time already without any extra demand on me, and the staples involved will hold their value longer - allowing me to set this aside as a reasonable savings plan. When I am ready to sell, it will be a great amount towards my sons tuition for a year of college. This is just but one possibility. Find yours.

-Till Next Time.

Hidden Gems and Market Saturation in Commander

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I don't know about all of you, but Legacy hasn't made me much money lately. I was ahead of a few price spikes and managed to sell into prices that are, frankly, a little inflated even for my tastes as a financier, but for the most part, people don't have the kind of money to drop on Legacy cards at their current prices. Standard is a bit "meh" right now and with little in the way of exciting new tech (besides that "dredge" deck that Ari Lax played at the GP... Awww yeah), prices are falling on Standard cards like Desecration Demon, Pack Rat, Hero's Downfall and Master of Waves. Where do we see financial opportunity?

There was an error retrieving a chart for hero's downfall
There was an error retrieving a chart for pack rat

The finance subreddit took to discussing Commander cards that may rebound higher than they are now due to their current saturation. Did we say saturation? Don't put away that umbrella (ella ella ella) just yet- there are two things you need to know about Commander sets.

First is that these were so successful, Wizards wants to do one every year. They tipped their hand slightly by calling the first Commander sets "Commander" and calling this most recent batch "Commander 2013". I missed a crucial announcement and thought this was merely to differentiate the newer sets from the older ones, sort of like calling it "World War 1" retroactively after World War 2. However, back when Commander's Arsenal was announced, Monty Ashley announced that Commander would now be an annual affair. Read here in case you were like me and didn't notice.

The prospect of a set of Commander decks each year excites me as an EDH player but makes me much less bullish on cards like Command Tower and Sol Ring. Still, they can't reprint everything!

There was an error retrieving a chart for sol ring
There was an error retrieving a chart for command tower

Speaking of "printing", Wizards is well aware that people were buying Mind Seize overwhelmingly. That's why the next "batch" of Commander 2013 will be a bit different. Instead of requiring retailers to shell out for a 5 set to get more Mind Seize (I'm reminded of that episode of the Simpsons where Homer kept buying more Neapolitan ice cream and only eating the chocolate), the next box of 5 will contain two Mind Seize decks and 3 other decks.

While I don't expect the other decks to rot away on shelves forever (I am bullish on the Jund colored deck as a long term "keep this sealed" hold), this should encourage retailers to order more because they know they will snap sell the Mind Seize and not be guaranteed to get an equal number of Naya decks that no one is excited about right now. If we thought we were saturated before, we're about to learn the true meaning of the term.

There was an error retrieving a chart for true-name nemesis
There was an error retrieving a chart for Nekusar, the mindrazer

I think prices will rebound, personally. Stuff that is printed in Commander 2014 is obviously going to take a hit, but can Command Tower ever go below $1 and Sol Ring below $3? I don't think so. I still pick those up in trade happily. I maintain that Commander players never take decks apart.  I haven't been writing about EDH very long but I have yet to take apart an EDH deck, even the ones I don't personally like playing anymore. Commander players build new decks.

Maybe you really can sell more Sol Rings to the same people. Regardless of how we feel about those cards that go in every Commander deck printing, are there some cards likely to dodge a reprint that are low now but should rebound higher? Remember, people used to leave the RUG Commander 2011 deck on the shelves when they were upset that the store was out of Counterpunch and now Animar alone is flirting with $15.

There was an error retrieving a chart for animar, soul of elements
There was an error retrieving a chart for scavenging ooze

Check this list out. It took Kelly a few secounds to do it, but he used Trader Tools to sort the set and filter out every card over $1. What you have here is your very low risk specs. At practically bulk and with a low risk of reprint, there are several excellent targets here. Kelly likes Illusionist's Gambit - a powerful effect with a very affordable price tag. This could see a reprinting in a future Commander set, but it doesn't seem super likely.

For my money, I like the "tempt" cycle. Even the three that are currently not "bulk" are good buys in my opinion. Once the current Commader sets are gone, these will not be easy to find. Commander specific cards don't tend to end up in a competitive player's trade binder so these will likely be sort of rare. With the "temptation" cycle very unlikely to see a reprinting (Commander 2014 is all but guaranteed to introduce a new "mechanic") these cards should rebound.

The Competitive EDH subreddit has alreadty discussed the power of Tempt With Discovery.  It currently has a 38% spread, but that only represents about $0.75 given the affordability of the card. You should be able to offer $1 cash and walk away with these.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for tempt with glory

I don't hate offering $1 cash on Sol Ring or even Command Tower at this point. And Commander's popularity should increase the price of Commander staples printed in "normal" sets and unlikely to be reprinted in Commander set. I was bullish on Thespian's Stage for months and I am even more bullish now.

Pay attention to this format. There are opportunities here that you might not have expected.

Insider: Tales From the Floor – Grand Prix Cincinnati

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Wow.

What a weekend I just had. Cincinnati was a wild time, almost entirely thanks to the fact I was on my first coverage team, working for Wizards of the Coast to produce the written content you see from every event.

It was an interesting and enjoyable experience. Coming into it with a background in journalism, it was both familiar and entirely new at the same time. I may write an entire article about the experience sometime in the future, but suffice it to say I’m excited to have the opportunity to do it again in the future.

But that’s not what we’re here for. Let’s talk some finance. Being on the floor at the Grand Prix I got to experience quite a bit of the event from the floor, from meeting some QS members and writers, including Sigmund (sorry to everyone that I couldn’t hang out longer, I was running around quite a bit).

Return of the King(s)

The format was Standard, and I’ll get the biggest takeaway from this article out of the way off the bat.

Shocklands are back.

I’m not sure anything has generated more talk in the last 12 months than shocks. And, to be honest, they’re probably going to continue to generate that much talk for a while to come.

The major theme of the weekend was that every deck was splashing, either a second or third color. Mono-Black and Mono-Blue Devotion? No more Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. Instead, we now have Hallowed Fountain, Blood Crypt and Godless Shrine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hallowed Fountain
There was an error retrieving a chart for godless shrine

Here’s something that tells you everything you need to know: dealers were paying $7-8 on most shocklands. The TCGMid price is under $10 for most of these, so that’s a pretty insane price. These things continue to move, and I’m leaning more and more to the opinion that there’s not going to be an appreciable drop-off come rotation.

I’ll likely delve more into the issue next week as we look at the coming Modern season, but I wanted to get this out there. If you still have plenty, feel fine holding them. If you want to invest in them for the long term and don’t think rotation will hurt, feel free to get them now. They’ve clearly bottomed out, at least for their time in Standard, so the upside has to outweigh the downside.

There was an error retrieving a chart for nykthos, shrine to nyx
There was an error retrieving a chart for blood crypt

Going Rogue

There were certainly some boring decks in the Top 8, and ultimately a boring one in Esper Control won. But don’t be fooled by that, we saw a little more variation than usual.

Let’s start small. Mono-Black was splashing red for maindeck Rakdos's Return and some Slaughter Games and Sire of Insanity in the board.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rakdos's Return
There was an error retrieving a chart for Slaughter Games

Of these, Return obviously has the most upside because it’s a mythic. With so many control decks running around, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this move up some (they can be had for under $), but even still I’m not sure how much upside there is for something narrow like this.

Naya Hexproof isn’t exactly a revelation either, even if it does qualify as rogue, but the other aggressive deck in the Top 4 was a spicy Black-Red Aggro deck. It’s got a good matchup against (actual) Mono-Black, and does okay against the control decks as well.

The most likely targets are Pain Seer and Herald of Torment. Neither are likely to truly break through this season, but I could see something featuring these two cards alongside Tormented Hero being pretty strong out of the gates next season. I’m not sure if either will be the next Desecration Demon like everyone wants, but Herald in particular seems extremely low-risk.

There was an error retrieving a chart for pain seer
There was an error retrieving a chart for herald of torment

Outside the Top 8 sat the really spicy decks. I saw plenty of green and white, including Advent of the Wurm and other brews. Mono-Green Stompy is apparently actually a thing as well, though probably the only card even possibly worth looking at is Nylea, God of the Hunt.

There was an error retrieving a chart for advent of the wurm
There was an error retrieving a chart for nylea, god of the hunt

A Merfolk Sighting!

No, there was not a tribal merfolk deck in the room (unfortunately). But there were plenty of Kiora, the Crashing Wave floating around. Several Bant Control decks were all in the top 20, and Kiora proved her worth there even if ultimately they were still just Sphinx's Revelation decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for kiora, the crashing wave
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx's Revelation

I’m pretty confident that Bant isn’t a better control shell than Esper, but it is another home for Courser of Kruphix and shocklands. Maybe even Temple of Mystery is worth looking into, since the power planeswalkers for control next season will be Kiora and Elspeth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Courser of kruphix
There was an error retrieving a chart for temple of mystery

Dredge

The exciting thing about this deck is that it only plays nine essential maindeck spells that rotate out. Sure, losing Lotleth Troll, Grisly Salvage and Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord hurts quite a bit, but to some extent the latter two are replaceable after a few more sets.

If we’re looking for a place to park trade equity before Journey Into Nyx comes out, this has to be it. This deck is making waves without the advantage of a scryland--the only deck in Standard that has done so.

There was an error retrieving a chart for jarad, golgari lich lord
There was an error retrieving a chart for lotleth troll

Again we see Herald of Torment. Nighthowler is a spicy target as well, but nothing tops Shadowborn Demon. Yes, it’s only a two-of, but the other two are in the sideboard and it’s a mythic from M14. Ari Lax, among others, plays this deck well, and I was told over and over that all it was missing to keep it from being Tier 1 was a scryland. I really like this deck moving forward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for nighthowler
There was an error retrieving a chart for shadowborn demon

Boring Standard

I know it’s hard to care about Standard when all we see are Esper mirrors, but there are actually a surprising number of real decks out there, and real targets moving forward. We’re getting closer and closer to Journey into Nyx and a possible shakeup, so act accordingly.

And hopefully it will be you in the Top 8 of the next event I cover.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: 3 Standard Decks That Actually Have Synergy

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Why is Standard not fun for some players right now? Have you heard the mumbling and complaining about how uninteresting current Standard is? While I try to keep a handle on how vocal I am about not enjoying a format, those feelings have definitely been lurking in the depths of my mind like a predator stalking his prey. Don’t get me wrong, there are seemingly many playable decks in the format, but none of them are for me. The times when I’ve been successful and had the most satisfaction are when I have a deck that fits my play style, provides a powerful game plan, and is well positioned in the format. Satisfaction playing a deck is my most important motivation.

I know I have not been into any of these Theros Standard formats, but I couldn’t figure out why until now. Ari Lax said it best in his article this week.

Almost all...Standard decks feel like Limited decks. You have some bombs, a bit of interaction, and a fair amount of filler. Esper Control is pretty much the only deck that isn't that way, and even that is loose for a control deck because the answers are so awkward.

So what's missing?  Synergy. Throughout the length of this format's existence, I’ve been searching for synergy in Standard to no avail. I glimpsed it from a distance with Mono Blue Devotion, but counting the number of mana symbols in your permanents does not quite equate to synergy - just consistency. The format we are living in revolves around “good stuff” decks but the so called “good cards” are lackluster in comparison to any previous Standard format. Think about bringing any current Standard deck to battle in a past format and you’d have to go back to some extremely underpowered formats to find one where you would have success.

There was an error retrieving a chart for thassa, god of the sea
There was an error retrieving a chart for master of waves

 

The simple fact is that the Standard decks have a few solid cards but also some that you would rather not draw each game. The problem is that there are no better cards to play. Go look at the singles case at your local shop sometime and check out the blue section of cards. I guarantee the Standard blue cards section is extremely small compared to any other section. The reason Mono Blue Devotion doesn’t change much from week to week is because it already plays all of the playable blue cards in Standard. There aren’t more to choose from.

While Standard overwhelmingly fits this mold of “good stuff” decks, some synergistic strategies are starting to emerge now that we have had some time to play with Born of the Gods. As we are approaching Journey to Nyx, my new set wish is that we are given some new cards that play well with others. Synergy is a positive and motivational force in deck building. We need more of it in Standard. For now, there are only a few of these types of strategies. As this week has progressed a few other authors have written about these same two decks because they are literally the only interesting things happening in Standard these days.

Shaking up Standard

G/B Dredge

By Ari Lax ,15th place Grand Prix Cincinnati 2014

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Deathrite Shaman
4 Elvish Mystic
3 Lotleth Troll
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Satyr Wayfinder
3 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
2 Shadowborn Demon
4 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
4 Commune with the Gods

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
9 Forest
7 Swamp

Sideboard

4 Mistcutter Hydra
1 Scavenging Ooze
2 Shadowborn Demon
1 Devour Flesh
1 Golgari Charm
2 Whip of Erebos
4 Thoughtseize

Even though the title of this section should probably read "Slightly Altering Standard", any innovation right now is a positive thing in my book. The reason this deck is a reasonable choice is because the cards work extremely well together. With twelve ways to dump cards in your graveyard for two mana, you have a dependable way to set up your strategy.

These cards also allow you to make your deck perform consistently similar to that of Ponder and Preordain. Although they are less powerful than the cards from the Modern Banned List, twelve Impulse effects in any deck is a remarkably effective way to execute your strategy. No matter what cards you are looking for, you have many ways to find them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for ponder
There was an error retrieving a chart for preordain

Although you have some cards you are trying to find, the real back breaker is Nighthowler. Sure you can start playing cheap 5/5 Nemesis of Mortals or build a big Lotleth Troll, but bestowing is the light that leads you out of the tunnel and into the land of the winners. The playable bestow cards are so powerful because  removal is so plentiful.

To gain a deeper perspective on the situation, start thinking of your bestow creatures like Voice of Resurgence. The Eternal all-star, Voice, is amazing because he not only sets the tone of the game but also replaces himself when he dies. This process is nearly identical with any bestow creature. Certainly it’s not exactly the same, but bestowing forces your opponent to deal with your threat twice. Both Elvish Mystic and Satyr Wayfinder are perfect targets to bestow on because you will turn an innocent enabler into a legitimate threat.

There was an error retrieving a chart for nemesis of mortals
There was an error retrieving a chart for nighthowler

You are capable of building huge threats to tear chunks from your opponent’s life total. Bestow helps with that also because they act like pump spells or haste creatures depending on how you want to think about them. Even though most of the cards on their own merit would be considered weak, together they form a cohesive unit. Decks like this always remind me of tribal aggressive decks. When you look at each creature in a Merfolk deck for example, they seem underpowered, but once you start accumulating the synergy of all the lords, the battlefield snowballs into a more and more dangerous situation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for master of the pearl trident
There was an error retrieving a chart for merrow reejerey

My attention has only been on this deck since Ari’s success brought it to my attention, but I immediately started thinking about ways to improve the deck. One possible direction is to dive in deeper to the bestow cards. Possibilities like Boon Satyr, Spiteful Returned, Leafcrown Dryad or Baleful Eidolon might be playable in this type of strategy.

Even if we don’t drastically alter the deck, changing the numbers on the cards included might improve the win rate. Specifically, only two copies of Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord and Shadowborn Demon seems a couple too short. Both of those cards seem like you would want to draw them more often than two copies would allow. The change I will likely test first though, is replacing Sylvan Caryatid with Voyaging Satyr. Being able to fix your mana better and be immune to nearly all removal spells seems less important that the ability to bestow and attack with your mana creature.

There was an error retrieving a chart for jarad, golgari lich lord
There was an error retrieving a chart for shadowborn demon

This archetype is a promising way to attack Standard and over the next couple weeks, I will be working with it to try to develop it further. Another strategy on the rise is that of Naya Hexproof. If you’ve been reading my articles from when I was on the free side, I discussed this strategy a while back but with blue instead of red mana. Take a look at what the deck is looking like these days.

Naya Hexproof

By Jacob Maynard, 8th place Grand Prix Cincinnati 2014

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Gladecover Scout
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Witchstalker
2 Fiendslayer Paladin

Spells

4 Chained to the Rocks
4 Ethereal Armor
4 Madcap Skills
2 Selesnya Charm
4 Boros Charm
4 Unflinching Courage
2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride

Lands

4 Sacred Foundry
4 Stomping Ground
4 Temple Garden
3 Temple of Abandon
4 Temple of Plenty
2 Temple of Triumph
1 Forest

Sideboard

1 Fiendslayer Paladin
2 Gift of Orzhova
2 Mending Touch
3 Mizzium Mortars
1 Revoke Existence
2 Selesnya Charm
4 Skylasher

The main problem with this deck? There are not enough cards in Standard to support this strategy. There are not enough efficient hexproof creatures nor enough low mana cost, high power auras to grow your threats. Some hands will be amazing and your God Draw will trump whatever the opposition can muster. Other games will seem like winning is as far away as the moon. I will say that this list is the most streamlined version I’ve seen. It’s no surprise Maynard was successful with it as he clearly put a lot of time and effort into developing it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Witchstalker
There was an error retrieving a chart for Voice of Resurgence

There are a couple improvements to this deck from previous versions that stick out as important. Let’s start with Chained to the Rocks. The reason I think this removal spell is a great addition to this deck is because it not only adds to your enchantment count but also gives you a reliable removal spell to slow your opponent down with. Any other removal spell would slow you down, but Chained to the Rocks deals with any creature plus allows you to increase your offense. The other addition I love is Boros Charm. This multicolored spell offers the exact utility this deck was seeking. Double Strike seems like the mode you will use most often, but helping your board to stick around after Supreme Verdict is a sure way to victory as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for boros charm
There was an error retrieving a chart for chained to the rocks

There are some questions in my mind about this archetype though. The first thing on my mind is about possibly adding Ghor-Clan Rampager to the deck. Making your pump spells into creatures when you need them adds depth to the deck. It’s possible that some of the creatures could be cut and replaced by the best bloodrush creature, but it may detract from the strategy.

Here's another question, and it might sound crazy.  Maybe all of the hexproof creatures should be removed. If we do that, obviously we are now playing a different deck, but maybe that’s a good thing. Take a look at how Brad Nelson approached this aggressive color combination.

Naya Aggro

By Brad Nelson

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Soldier of the Pantheon
4 Dryad Militant
4 Fleecemane Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Boros Reckoner
2 Loxodon Smiter
4 Ghor-Clan Rampager

Spells

4 Boros Charm
4 Brave the Elements
4 Selesnya Charm

Lands

4 Sacred Foundry
4 Stomping Ground
4 Temple Garden
3 Temple of Abandon
4 Temple of Plenty
1 Temple of Triumph
2 Plains

Sideboard

2 Mistcutter Hydra
4 Skylasher
4 Unflinching Courage
2 Domri Rade
3 Mizzium Mortars

If I was going to play a Naya colored aggressive deck, I think I would start here instead of with eight unimpressive hexproof creatures and some auras to put on them. When the mana behaves in this deck, there are some extremely fast and powerful draws. The combination of Rampager and Charm add up to quick wins from seemingly out of nowhere. The combo of those two cards is one I’m very familiar with from a couple seasons ago. The ability to win fourth turn is within your reach if you play this deck, but maybe I am underestimating the combination of Boros Charm with the auras from the previous deck. Either way, both decks are potent aggressive strategies that suffer from bad mana. They are at least a fresh breath of air on a stale Standard format.

Looking to the Future

With these two decks as inspiration, I am encouraged that there may be more where this came from once Nyx hits shelves. I would love to see Standard flipped on its head with the release of the new set. One card I’m keeping an eye on is Epic Experiment. It seems that a deck based around this card could exist if some cards are printed that would allow it to function better. One card that comes to mind would be a reprint of Rampant Growth, or other spells that ramp your mana. This type of deck is looking for as many spells as possible as well as a way to get more mana quickly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for epic experiment
There was an error retrieving a chart for thoughtseize

After analyzing the available card pool, this deck can’t really exist right now, but it’s close to being viable. Thoughtseize may prevent it from taking over the format, but cards like this are what we are looking for in order to build more intricate Standard decks. Are there other cards like this in Standard that could spawn new decks? Let me know what brews you’ve been working on in the comments.

Financial Implications

There is some upside financially if any of these decks take off. I've already seen movement on Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord and Night Howler, not much, but these cards won't be in the bulk bins for much longer so take a moment to browse at your local store. Witchstalker may see some movement also. He has been around the three dollar mark for a while now and has held that price well. If Nyx bestows a couple more cards to bring that deck into the spotlight, it could double in price quickly. Finally, Boros Charm might be as low as it will ever be so any cheap copies you can pick up should be a great long term investment. When rotation hits, it may dip a bit so that's a great time to pick them up as well. Standard is full of cards that will move given the right results but most of the time your best bet is to get in on the trend through trading before it bumps up in price.

A Theros Sealed PTQ Report

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Last year I had my first limited PTQ top 8 in Fargo during Theros sealed season. Last Saturday I came within arms reach of my second. Slightly better tie-breaks and I'd have been able to draw the final round. Slightly better draws and I'd have won it. Alas, I came inches short. At the end of the day I am happy with the way that I constructed my sealed pool though, and I believe that my game is finally getting where I want it to be.

Speaking of sealed pools, after opening a pool with double Gray Merchant of Asphodel and Whip of Erebos, this is what I was passed:

Theros Block Sealed Pool

white

1 Dawn to Dusk
1 Elite Skirmisher
1 Hold at Bay
2 Lagonna-Band Elder
1 Last Breath
1 Loyal Pegasus
1 Mortal's Ardor
1 Nyxborn Shieldmate
1 Observant Alseid
1 Oreskos Sun Guide
1 Revoke Existence
1 Vanguard of Brimaz

blue

1 Chorus of the Tides
1 Crackling Triton
1 Evanescent Intellect
1 Fate Fortold
1 Horizon Scholar
1 Kraken of the Straits
1 Lost in a Labyrinth
1 Mnemonic Wall
1 Nullify
1 Nyxborn Triton
1 Ordeal of Thassa
1 Prescient Chimera
1 Sealock Monster
1 Sudden Storm
1 Thassa's Bounty
1 Thassa's Rebuff
1 Triton Fortune Hunter
1 Triton Shorethief
1 Voyage's End
1 Whelming Wave

black

2 Asphyxiate
1 Disciple of Phenax
1 Eye Gouge
1 Felhide Minotaur
1 Forsaken Drifters
1 Herald of Torment
1 Lash of the Whip
1 Loathsome Catoblepas
1 Marshmist Titan
1 Necrobite
1 Pharika's Cure
1 Returned Phalanx
1 Warchanter of Mogis

red

1 Arena Athlete
2 Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass
1 Fall of the Hammer
2 Fearsome Temper
1 Kragma Butcher
1 Labyrinth Champion
1 Messenger's Speed
1 Minotaur Skullcleaver
1 Priest of Iroas
1 Purphoros, God of the Forge
1 Rise to the Challenge
1 Spark Jolt

green

1 Agent of Horizons
1 Artisan's Sorrow
1 Anthousa, Setessan Hero
1 Commune with the Gods
1 Defend the Hearth
1 Feral Invocation
1 Mortal's Resolve
1 Nylea's Presence
1 Pheres-Band Tromper
1 Raised by Wolves
1 Savage Surge
1 Sedge Scorpion
1 Setessan Oathsworn
1 Setessan Starbreaker
1 Skyreaping
2 Warrior's Lesson

gold

1 Fanatic of Xenagos
1 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
1 Pharika's Mender
1 Siren of the Silent Song

artifact

1 Gorgon's Head
1 Bronze Sable

When it comes to Theros sealed, there are basically four archetypes:
- The nut aggro
- "I have to play all of my Ordeals and Goblin Pikers" aggro
- Quality midrange
- Piles of cards

Looking over my pool, I definitely don't have anything close to the nut aggro, and I'm extremely low on two drops, so I don't really have the Piker Ordeal deck either. Ideally my aggressive decks would want to trim a land for a 24th spell, but everything aggressive I tried to configure included three or four 23rd cards as it was. I really don't want to play Cyclops of One-Eyed Pass and I sure as hell don't want to play two.

I'm rather short on playables for a quality midrange deck as well. Black is shallow with a lot of heavy colored requirements, most of the red and white cards belong in an aggressive deck but only combine to have an awkward curve and green just doesn't have a lot going for it. Blue is the least awkward color, but I'm locked into playing some three mana 2/3s among other questionable cards there as well. Basically, this pool needs to find whatever pile of cards best supports Kiora and hope it's okay.

[cardimage cardname='Kiora, the Crashing Wave']

I lined up four or so decks during deckbuild, and it came down to GWu versus UBg. The advantage of GWu is better mana and the fact that I could actually use the Nylea's Presence as manafixing. The disadvantage is that the curve is awkward, the cards are weaker and that Kiora doesn't play as well in an aggressive deck as it does in one with removal backup. In the end, I decided on stronger cards with worse mana:

UBg Sealed Pile

creatures

1 Siren of the Silent Song
1 Bronze Sable
1 Nyxborn Triton
1 Mnemonic Wall
1 Horizon Scholar
1 Crackling Triton
1 Chorus of the Tides
1 Sealock Monster
1 Prescient Chimera
1 Returned Phalanx
1 Herald of Torment
1 Felhide Minotaur
1 Disciple of Phenax

spells

1 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
2 Asphyxiate
1 Lash of the Whip
1 Pharika's Cure
1 Voyage's End
1 Sudden Storm
1 Thassa's Bounty
1 Nullify

Relevant Sideboard

1 Whelming Wave
1 Artisan's Sorrow
1 Eye Gouge

lands

9 Swamp
7 Island
2 Forest

I went to time on deckbuilding, and while I didn't feel great about the deck, I did feel like I had made the best of what I had opened. All I could do now is play it. These were the considerations I made in terms of final cuts:

Cards That Didn't Quite Make It

I thought for a while about including Kraken of the Straits and Whelming Wave, but I decided that both had larger downside than upside. The Kraken cost way too much mana to just cast into Griptide, Voyage's End and Asphyxiate. Even when it does get to live it's just a 6/6 that gets outclassed by a lot of monstrous creatures and barely has evasion.

Whelming Wave was much closer to making the deck, but it strikes me as being awful against aggressive decks which can just recast more threats than you faster again and bestow creatures which get to stay in play and attack you. I boarded it in against decks that hinged on expensive creatures, but I think it was right not to maindeck it.

Bronze Sable is likely the most questionable card in the maindeck, but I'd stand by it 100%. This deck is otherwise very light on twos and it blocks reasonably against the aggressive decks while also being able to apply some pressure to slower decks. Eye Gouge would be the runner up from my perspective, and I wouldn't fault anybody for going that direction.

While I like maindecking Revoke Existence, the Artisan's Sorrow is a bit too inefficient without knowing there is anything worth targeting in the opponent's deck and it's on my splash color.

Sideboarding

Whelming Wave is for decks with high curves. Eye Gouge is for decks with low curves. Artisan's Sorrow is for decks with a heavy concentration of artifacts/enchantments- not necessarily specific cards. Most commonly I'd bring out the Bronze Sable for the Wave and Thassa's Bounty for the Gouge. The Artisan's Sorrow is a bit more flexible in what it could replace.

The Mana

The curve is really high, I'm in three colors and there's not a 23rd card that I'm very excited about. 18 lands was a pretty easy choice for me. I never play fewer than two sources of any color that appears in the casting cost of a card in my deck, and Kiora is my only green card. Two Forest, 16 lands to go. Considering the ratio of blue spells to black spells, I could see going 8-8. Considering that so many of the black spells cost double-black and that Asphyxiate has a narrow window to actually work, I like 9-7 better. I'd really like an Unknown Shores, especially considering the Wavecrash Triton, but that's just not the world we live in.

Going in I knew the mana was going to cause some problems. I just had to hope that I'd be able to Asphyxiate any real threats and that Kiora would buy me some wins.

Play or Draw

Awkward mana. Three three-mana 2/3s. This deck really, really wants the extra card. Asphyxiate is also technically more efficient on the draw. You'll rarely want to use it on a two drop, so if you're on the play there will be games where you just have it and pass. There is a reasonable number of three drops worth killing, and Asphyxiating them on the play means that you'd leave your fourth land drop doing nothing, potentially waiting a turn to play Disciple of Phenax or Chorus of the Tides. Against a very good aggressive deck I'd take the play, but I wouldn't be happy about it.

Interestingly, I played against an opponent who took the draw in game one and then elected to play in game two. Seeing as there's not much that's very aggressive about my deck and that our game one went to like, turn 20 I asked him what changed between games. He told me that he chose to draw because he had Anger of the Gods in his deck and his idea was that it would kill more creatures on curve on the draw, and that he'd have an extra draw step to find it. Well, what he said was, "You're not a crappy aggro deck," but I inferred that that's what he meant. Either way, I would absolutely take the extra card against a deck full of removal like mine. My game two win was much more convincing than game one.

Record

I got my first loss with this deck in round five, largely due to my mana base. Oddly enough, I cast a turn two Nullify in that round while missing the second black for the Asphyxiate I had in hand. Anyway, I battled back and was one of 8 6-1s going into round 8. Four of those players could draw, the other four had to play. I assumed that I'd be a reasonably high seed and be able to draw, but I imagine that some of my early opponent's stayed in and racked up a lot of losses, because I had to play. I won game one of a UB mirror handily, played terribly, largely due to fatigue in a game two that I'm not sure I could have won anyway, and tightened up but was outdrawn in a tight game three. Daggers.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to make another Theros Sealed PTQ, and I'll likely be paying more attention to Modern until May anyhow. My next tournament is the SCG Open in Milwaukee. I'll be wielding RW Burn in Standard and RUG Delver (surprise!) in Legacy, and I'll be hoping to improve on this weekend's results. I've been hungry for more top 8s for a while, but at this point I'm outright starving. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have MTGO to grind.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

QS Booze Cube: Absynthian Hellkite

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The QS Booze Cube is an ongoing project to support QS Insider member and all-around good guy Scott Peitzer's popular passion project. The Booze Cube is just for fun (and adults over the legal drinking age, ideally). Don't sell these or try to make money from them in any way. You can't buy these cards from us. If you want to give us money (and really, who doesn't?), sign up for a QS Insider subscription instead.

Absynthian Hellkite

Design Goals: This card is the big bomb of the Absynthia group of cards, and the first we'll preview.   Absinthe is a green liquor purported to cause hallucinations and insanity, rumored to be a favorite among crazy artsy types like Van Gogh, Oscar Wilde and Ernest Hemmingway.  The Absynthia cards are a cross between the Hidden Guerillas cycle and the Thassa, God of the Sea cycle.  Though this particular card doesn't have a static ability like the Theros block Gods do, some others will.

This hallucination becomes a reality after your opponent has consumed at least 7 drinks in a single turn.  If that turn happens to be your turn, then it can attack (as long as it hasn't got summoning sickness).   We wanted to force heavy devotion to green because the Absynthia cards are all very synergistic (as you will see in future previews); someone who drafts this with their first pick will commit to green almost automatically, and be heavily rewarded for sticking with it.

Most of the Absynthia cards revolve around a combination of drinking and discarding cards (which, in Magic, is analogous to going mad).  In this case, once you unleash the dragon, you go almost completely insane.  We originally thought about making the ability empty the opponent's entire hand, but that was deemed too powerful.  Another card from this same theme, which I'll preview soon, gets a nice little buff each time an opponent discards a card.  Others have the same "drink" trigger at lower (or higher!) numbers.

This sub-theme has proven to be one of the most challenging to design, since it adds an entirely new consequence for drinking. Balancing this has been difficult to say the least.  Of all the cards previewed so far, this is the one that I believe will take the most revisions before the set is finalized.

[yop_poll id="6"]

Got your own fun custom Booze Cube cards?  Make One and reply with a link to it.

Maybe we'll feature YOURS next!

 


Some notes: We don't try to replicate proper Magic templating language in the rules text of cards. We do this to save space and make the cards more human-readable. Remember, you're probably real drunk when you're playing and the subtleties of the Intervening-If clause may elude you.

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