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Insider: How to Develop Your Predictive Senses

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Speculation depends at its core on your ability to make a decision quickly and then act on it. Sometimes, the window is hours or days, but other times, it's mere minutes. Land Tax has been unbanned. It's 12:06am when your friend texts you to wake you up. You need to make decisions on whether you want to get out of bed and buy some white enchantments. Are there are other angles to play on the card? Should you get Scroll Racks, Mox Diamonds? Truth is, this happens a lot more than just with unbannings, because spoiler season is full of this sort of thing. Spoiler season happens four times a year, and typically lasts a month. Wrap your mind around this: for about a third of the year, you can actively speculate just on spoilers. Beyond that, there are enough SCG Opens and Grands Prix to make the speculator busy.

What I'd like to share with you today are some case studies on cards that I think will help develop some basic heuristics. "Heuristics," by the way, means a set of problem-solving skills that you develop through experience. Let's shortcut some of the experience needed to get some of these simple concepts. Look, a lot of speculation is just short of voodoo, but good speculators fall back on a few predictive rules, even at a subconscious level.

Battle of Wits

Battle of Wits was spoiled to big fanfare in M13. Why not, this was one of the few alternate-win cards that actually saw play. It shook up what it looks like to play tournament Magic in a physical way. Your opponent sits down with a huuuuuge pile of cards and you know it's one and only one thing. Battle is fun and it's also been competitive in climates more suited to blue spells like Repulse (woof!). So when Battle was announced, I wondered whether there was any dough to be made on the card. Unfortunately, I concluded that there wasn't room to make a profit, and here are the steps I went through mentally.

Does it exist in an earlier set? Yes, Battle popped up first in Odyssey and then in 9th Edition. This is typically a bad thing, even if that card was nuts in the previous printing. Reprinted rares tank in value (but we'll look at this a bit more). The two crucial facts that made me keep investigating were that it was printed in a set with an old frame and there were foil versions of that set. So original foil Battles exist and were cheap - about $2 when it was announced. If there was money to be made, it would really only be on those foils. Nobody wants ugly 9th edition cards when they can get slightly-less-ugly ODY cards.

How powerful is this card? Battle of Wits says "win the game" so yeah, it's powerful when you read the card. However, Battle did its best when Magic was much different. William Jensen ran it in 2002 to a 1st place finish at GP: Milwaukee, but his deck was ABSURD. Take a look at this. You had so many powerful cards in standard that Battle just gave you an excuse to run them all. Exclude, Flametongue Kavu, Dromar's Charm, Fact or Fiction... those cards are just too good to be reprinted and Baby Huey had all of 'em. Of course you're going to do well with Battle when you can run 240 really, really good spells. Since his victory, creatures have gotten better and spells are worse. Battle doesn't have crazy cards for you to cram into your deck, it has Birthing Pod and a bunch of medicore kill spells. In short, Battle isn't what it was a decade ago.

Are people going to love to play this card? Even if a card kind of blows, it can be part of a second-tier strategy if it's well-loved. People love Battle of Wits, let's not be mistaken on that. However, far less people own the actual cards to play Battle. You need 240 really playable, good cards to make a deck out of the card. Now you've got Mythic rares to work into the cost, too. You'll end up with a few people looking to make a pimped-out and awesome Battle deck, but they won't move the market enough to make foil Battles a real card.

Conclusions: Battle was just printed far too much and isn't the right card right now - I didn't buy into it and I'm happy with that decision.

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage is another fan favorite that made a reappearance in Shards block. Let's look at the same factors applied to that card.

Does it exist in an earlier set? Yes, Meddling Mage was an iconic card of Planeshift. It was an invitational card with a seriously cool ability. It's a card like Jester's Cap in terms of fan love - you can stop the opponent totally with it! Further, it was printed in a middle set. There are few cards that can sustain a value above $5 long after they rotate out, and Meddling Mage was one of them.

Are people going to love to play with this card? Yes, people wanted to play Meddling Mage in everything they could! Meddling Mage was about $6 for a very long time and as soon as its reprint was announced, the card nearly doubled in price. Take a look:

Planeshift Meddling Mage, focusing on April 2009

How powerful is this card? Meddling Mage is potentially really strong, since it can lock out huge haymakers from the opponent. In Standard of years past, though, Meddling Mage usually just chanted away the removal spell that you could count on. At the time, it was frequently Repulse or Urza's Rage. You could reasonably predict which of the two or three playable kill spells would be aimed at the Mage. That basically just gave the first one Shroud, which was still a rare ability in those days. Shroud or the option to close off cards in their deck was and is decent. However, Meddling Mage had a few issues at the time that limited its power. Remember again that creatures got a lot better! A 2/2 bear with a good ability was way above the curve in Invasion, but two mana gets you much more these days. In Alara block, it got you Putrid Leech, for example. Jund was the big menace at the time and if you played out Mage and then they answered with the Leech or Sprouting Thrinax, well, you really have not done anything to change the board, have you? If 5-color Control gets its Cruel Ultimatums cut off, they can still Wrath away your little man. Meddling Mage saw nearly zero play because the environment wasn't right for it and the card isn't as good as it once was.

Conclusions: I'm torn on reporting a concrete lesson from Meddling Mage because if you bought up copies as soon as it was spoiled, you would have made a very tidy profit. However, look at how quickly this card nosedived when the Shards version came out:

Shards printing of Meddling Mage, first two months of printing

In one month, it dropped $4, and by the end of June, it was worth half of what it was at its peak. If you had gotten into these any later than "as soon as the spoiler was announced," then you would have gotten burned hard. The best lesson from this is that a reprint rarely makes a card's value go up, and if it does go up, it won't hang there for long.

Bonfire of the Damned

Bonfire is currently one of the hottest cards around and there's a lot of talk about what ceiling it has. When the card was first announced, people were lukewarm on it, which adds to the mystique - it's the Tarmogoyf effect of spotting a hidden gem. Let's make it our final study.

Does it exist in an earlier set? No, and we could be done with that, but I have to mention that Bonfire looks a lot like some other cards we'd seen - cards that negatively influenced what we thought of Bonfire. For example, it looks kind of like Pyroclasm - but Pyroclasm costs 2 and Bonfire costs 5 to get the same sweep. It looks like Earthquake, but Earthquake always costs XR. The thing we were missing about Bonfire, thinking it was just a bad Earthquake, was the value in only sweeping away an opponent's creatures. You see, we said "Earthquake was never played and this is no Earthquake" and we ignore that this card was not an Earthquake! We've never really played with a card that can selectively sweep away just the opponent's field. That negative historical bias influenced a lot of people, including myself.

How powerful is this card? Turns out, really powerful. Ramp decks can play it because it won't kill their own guys - au contraire, a weenie like Avacyn's Pilgrim actually helps cast it. Bonfire at retail is not great - but it's not bad, seeing as how all of Standard's monsters are usually X/2s or less. Casting this at 4R is painful but effective. We play Blasphemous Act for that price quite frequently. I think it took testing to see how gamebreaking the Miracle was, though.

Are people going to love to play with this card? Honestly, no. It's clunky for casual players. It's just another variant burn spell for Standard, but with some new qualities. It's not a banner Planeswalker or a beloved reprint. We cannot factor in the love appeal on this card's price.

Conclusions: Bonfire escaped notice for at least a week after being spoiled. I think this was in part due to people misunderstanding the card as printed and not looking to see if casting it for 4R was still a decent value in Standard. It's still a hot card, even though I don't think it'll hit $45 in its Standard run. It's one of those cards that got away from me personally - it takes a bit more work for me to buy into an $8 Mythic than an uncommon that's only a dime, and I think a lot of other speculators held off for the same reason. After all, Entreat the Angels is down about 30% from its peak during spoiler season and that card is going to keep going downward. Speculating on Mythics is especially risky.

If you have analytic tools you use, questions in mind that you always ask, or danger signs that you look for, let me know in the feedback here! If you appreciated an article that went back to the basics, let me know and I'll work on some more.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

As a bonus tip, Shardless Agent is seriously, seriously powerful in Legacy. Start picking these up for under $8, I don't think you'll regret it. I'll explain more next week (in respect to my source).

Insider: Why I Profit from Magic: The Gathering

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The past few years have seen a large boom in MTG speculators and financial experts. It seems every significant online retailer has at least one finance writer. Follow enough MTG people on Twitter, and you’ll inevitably believe everyone has an opinion on everything related to MTG Finance.

After all, there are now 155 pages in The Source’s finance/card prices thread. Read through a few pages and you’ll quickly agree - everyone has an opinion.

The rapid influx of people interested in the game’s monetary aspect is intriguing and today I'll analyze the driving force. This is important to understand because I feel some people believe MTG speculation is the best way to achieve certain goals, while surely there are superior alternatives. It all relates back to the predictability of our human nature to behave irrationally.

Living the Dream: Going Infinite

Many players (including me) have a goal of funding their MTG hobby through savvy trades and wise investments in cardboard. We stock up on dozens of a hot card that may see a spike in value. We dig deeper into the metagame to identify the potential break-outs, and we go after aggressively priced Legacy staples to trade down into profit.

All this is done with the hope that we can slowly build our collection and essentially enter a few tournaments for free. Making money is nice – making money while doing something we love is living the dream.

This optimistic outlook is inspiring, but the thought process is inherently flawed. For example, what is the opportunity cost of my owning 40 NM Revised Dual Lands, a few sealed booster boxes, and a lineup of other Standard and Legacy playables? The collection may be appreciating and I love having a hobby that nets me cash but is this really optimal from a financial standpoint?


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Once in a while I will observe price trends showing an increase here and a decrease there, which then impacts my MTG portfolio by a fraction of a percent. On a rare occasion, I will make a killing on a card like Scroll Rack or Food Chain thanks to some sudden hype. But aren’t there other investment opportunities passing me by in the meantime?

While I am slowly making bank on a couple sealed booster boxes of Unhinged, my [Wall Street] stock portfolio is experiencing rapid price swings weekly. While I may be profiting hundreds of dollars in my Magic hobby, my retirement fund is advancing by the thousands. Others may even have access to additional opportunities – real estate, commodities, currencies, etc.

So again I need to ask the question: why are we so interested in sinking hours of our time into research in order to gain an amount of money we could make in a month of passive investing? It cannot be simply to fund our hobby. There are many other opportunities out there to make some cash which carry less risk than a collectible card game. (Note: exceptions would be the ultra rare and unique cards, which are more like an investment in art than in a risky stock).

Enjoyment

One level deeper we discover a stronger motivating factor – the fact that we enjoy the adventure. Before I actively dealt in cards, I would leaf through a trade partner’s binder and drool in jealousy over the value within. Each time I asked myself: how was it possible that someone could possess such a valuable collection without spending tens of thousands of dollars in booster packs?

Now, after actively buying, selling, and trading Magic: the Gathering cards for a few years, I have seen so many cards pass through my fingers. The once intimidating fifty dollar trades can now be made at the blink of an eye. I barely have to think twice before making a $100-$200 purchase if I am confident value could be made. Practice has made me even more adept at scouring the internet for deals.

But, in all honesty, the Legacy boom was really the only catalyst to a gigantic price bump in my collection. Without beating the majority of the playing field to this format, it’s very possible I could not have come this far. While it is inspiring to try and find the next boom in the game (EDH, Modern, etc.), I really haven’t made such a large percentage in profit since.

If my goal was to enhance my trading experience by acquiring higher valued cards, couldn’t I simply invest the cash in the stock market and take profits/dividends and use them to purchase cards? This would still net me the valuable cards with which to trade while not taking on the high risk of investing in a card game. It seems there must be more to the hobby that is motivating me to invest so much time and money to simply earn a few bucks.

Deeper Understanding of Human Motivation

There is a unique aspect to dealing in Magic Cards that I cannot experience when trading stocks – the personal interactions.

The enjoyment I have in dealing in Magic Cards, making a solid prediction, and profiting on a speculation all carry a value unmatched by my stock investments. This is really the driving force behind my desire to deal in cardboard. When I do profit successfully, the hobby is even sweeter. But even if my portfolio remained neutral in value year on year, I would still be enjoying a hobby, networking with a great community and hopefully making a difference.

In a way, these different levels of accomplishments from MTG trading is relatable to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

On the safety level, one needs to have finances in order to sustain the hobby. Thus, we are motivated to simply gain value when on this level.

One level higher (love/belonging), we start to make connections and develop friendships when we participate in the hobby. This is where the distinction between investing in Magic Cards and investing in real estate / the stock market starts to manifest itself. I love being able to share speculation ideas in the QS forums and swapping success stories on Twitter. While this can still be done to a degree with the stock market, there are subtle differences.

At the esteem level, one develops a level of confidence and respect within the MTG community after some successful speculations. In my view, this is where I am currently operating. I love making a few bucks on the game and making connections, but gradually earning respect from the MTG community is immensely rewarding. Despite the fact that I’ve done fairly well in the stock market, I will never have the same level of respect on Wall Street as I do within the MTG community.

This is why I speculate.

Self-actualization

In an ironic sense, I am attempting to transcend to the level of self-actualization by writing about self-actualization. What I mean is that I am thinking creatively about MTG Finance and sharing thoughts that no other writers have done in the past.

Writing that one should buy Temporal Mastery and sell Snapcaster Mage soon really only addresses the safety level of the hierarchy above. (Disclaimer: I currently own no Temporal Masteries but I may pick one up soon if I feel demand may pick up).


(chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

Even articles about trading and fostering a healthy culture only crack the esteem level. But taking a step back, analyzing the game for what it is and identifying underlying human motivators in a creative way – that is a level on its own.

Sometimes such articles are a hit, and other times the risk may not pay out. But, in the end, I believe these conceptual articles are insightful in their own way, just as I participate in MTG speculation for my own unique set of motivations.

I’ve analyzed why I’d rather spend 10 hours to make $100 in Magic trading than 10 minutes to make $1000 in the stock market. I’d challenge you to consider how much time you’re spending on the hobby and how much profit you’re netting.

I’m not only in it for the money. Are you?

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Insider: Looking Ahead by Looking Back

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To start, I’m glad my concept of the “dead zone” in Magic (and by extension, Magic finance,) was received so well. Last week I talked about some ways to make the best use of that time, since everyone else is in holding pattern.

Well, about that holding pattern. The following exercise is something that is very helpful as a player, and by extension, a trader. It’s true we don’t know what Ravnica holds or what decks it may bring, but what we can do is look at the current decks and break them down by set. I find this is always a really useful way to determine if the important cards in each strategy are a buy, sell or hold.

Of course, we’ve talked about the easy sells. Everything from Scars block should be gone by now, except for any lands or such that you’re holding for Modern. I’ve personally moved almost my entire Scars stock, and cleared out the last Ratchet Bomb a few days ago.

But what Innistrad cards do we want to hold onto? As I mentioned, we can’t really predict what new decks will show up (just the powerful cards), but we can figure out if the current top decks will exist in any form post-rotation.

Let’s start.

U/W Delver

Losses:

Swords of X and Y

Mana Leak

Phantasmal Image

Phyrexian spells

Vapor Snag

Ponder

While these things may not seem like a death knell to the deck, they are certainly very bad for it. Delver is still great and all, but without Ponder to set it up and Phyrexian spells and Snag to protect it, the deck becomes much, much less consistent.

In addition, the Talrand versions are pretty much just dead, since they can’t jam Phyrexian spells and call it good. This means that, as a whole, the deck is not as well-positioned going forward, and that means a few things. Esper Midrange, which is essentially Delver-less Delver, is also dead with so many rotating spells.

First up – Restoration Angel. Yes, the Angel is good in a lot of decks, but it’s at its best here. Every share of the metagame something like Zombies or Vampires takes away from Angel decks means a drop in price. This has probably peaked, so don’t feel bad getting rid of yours. That said, it’s still extremely powerful and will be a metagame pillar, so I think it’s fairly stable.

It does stand to reason that Geist of Saint Traft could fall. Without Snag and Gut Shot to clear blockers, this thing becomes a lot easier to deal with. But another consequence of Snag leaving is that Human decks should be able to make a return to the metagame, and I suspect those decks will play Geist simply because of how much damage it puts out and the fact there will be less Clones. I’m looking at Geist to stay fairly stable post-rotation, though it could dip to $15.

Human cards, on the other hand, from Champion to Silverblade, will likely trend upwards.

Pod Decks

Every Pod deck is gone, obviously, with Pod itself rotating. But not every “Pod deck” was always Pod. In fact, Naya decks have been successful even without the Pods.

But these decks will all suffer from losing Phantasmal Image and Phyrexian Metamorph. The Clone effects really held these decks together, and with those gone, as well as Green Suns Zenith, they too lose a lot of consistency.

I still look for Bonfire of the Damned-based decks to be very strong, but the shell that is built around Bonfire could go through a lot of changes. As such, I can only recommend that Bonfire will continue to be the most expensive card in Standard.

Wolf Run

Losses:

Primeval Titan

This is pretty much the only card that matters, though Solemn Simulacrum and Inferno Titan both go as well, as does its sweepers.

People know this, and a lot of the associated cards have fallen accordingly. But another card you would do well to get rid of is Zealous Conscripts. Right now the Conscripts occasionally pops up in maindecks, but it’s mainly a fixture of the sideboard because it rocks Frites and Titans in general. It will still be good against Frites, but the removal of Titans means stealing one is way less relevant. Conscripts was in an intro deck and will probably halve in price because of it.

Elves

Losses:

Ezuri, Renegade Leader

Genesis Wave

Green Suns Zenith

Llanowar Elves

Birds of Paradise

Another deck that is effectively dead with the loss of the Elves and some of the explosiveness. Elvish Archdruid is a little less desirable once rotation occurs unless the tribe gets enough support in Ravnica. I do still like Soul of the Harvest, though, assuming there’s enough creature acceleration and/or finishers to make a deck like this happen. Ramping into Bonfires isn’t exactly bad, either.

Zombies

Losses:

Mortarpod

Phyrexian Obliterator

Dismember

Fume Spitter

Clones

Here we have our first big winner of the rotation. The losses incurred by Zombies is relatively small, and many versions weren’t even playing Oblitator anymore. The Burn-backed variant has had the most success recently, and I expect that trend to continue after rotation, when I foresee a lot of Human vs. Zombie battles happening.

Along those lines, I like foil Human Frailtys, and going a little deeper, Elite Inquisitor and Riders of Gavony. I think Champion of the Parish into Inquisitor into Silverblade is insane, and a play we’ll see a lot of post-rotation, assuming Ravnica doesn’t blow away Innistrad in terms of power level.

On the other hand, the Miracles deck from the Pro Tour could come back to combat these decks, in which case I like Devastation Tide as the cheap pickup for that deck, in addition to the lands.

Red decks

Losses:

Nothing irreplaceable.

Red spells are red spells, and they burn your face. What I like most about red post-rotation is that Timely Reinforcements is gone. That alone opens a lot of space for Red decks, as does the loss of Vapor Snag and Gut Shot, both of which helped to hold down Stromkirk Noble, a card I’m looking for a rise out of after the rotation.

It should be noted, though, that both Thragtusk and Restoration Angel are very good against red, so that’s going to hurt the potential success of Red decks.

That pretty much covers the top decks. Doing simple analysis like this is often how I choose targets for the coming season, and these calls often pay off. It’s difficult to impossible to predict an exact metagame after rotation, but we can come close to approximating what shells will survive with this technique, and that helps to shape our goals moving forward.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Adventures in Qualifying: PTQ #4

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Last weekend I participated in the last Standard PTQ in my area for this season. As I have mentioned before, my work lately has been mostly theoretical and that was one hundred percent true for this event as well. Even with zero testing of the list I played, I was confidant it was good. The list was strong and my prediction about its best card was accurate.

I based my decision to play this deck on one question. What is the best card in Standard right now?

This is a question that I, along with other competitive players, Ponder from time to time. Thinking this way often leads me to building new decks to attack the format.

For me, the best card in Standard right now is Terminus and it's a not close race. The decks finding the most success right now are all creature decks. Control decks are having a hard time beating all of the resilient creatures with built in card advantage. Terminus is the best card in the format right now because it is good against all of these creature based decks. It is good against any Delver deck, Pod variants and Zombies of red or blue, and even against Wolf Run it is decent.

I'm curious to hear if other people agree with me that Terminus is the best card in Standard. Let me know in the comments.

Rather than trying to run Terminus in a more traditional deck like Blue White Control, I created an updated version of Wolf Run that worked well with the wrath effect. Here's the list I played.

Wolf Run White

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Birds of Paradise
1 Borderland Ranger
3 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Thragtusk
1 Acidic Slime
3 Primeval Titan
2 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Spells

2 Pillar of Flame
4 Rampant Growth
4 Farseek
1 Oblivion Ring
2 Garruk Relentless
3 Green Suns Zenith
4 Terminus
3 Entreat the Angels

Lands

4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Rootbound Crag
3 Cavern of Souls
2 Inkmoth Nexus
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Slayers Stronghold
4 Forest
1 Mountain
4 Plains

Sideboard

3 Combust
3 Ratchet Bomb
1 Acidic Slime
2 Thragtusk
2 Stingerfling Spider
3 Surgical Extraction
1 Inkmoth Nexus

As you can see, I kept most of the Wolf Run shell intact. I am still playing the Green Sun's Zenith package with a wide array of targets. It may be time to remove Birds of Paradise because often it can be a liability due to the prominence of Gut Shot. I am not certain the Borderland Ranger is necessary either because I never searched for it. The card has been good in the past though and I never mind having one in my deck.

The numbers of cards may seem odd but there are reasons for each choice.

3 Primeval Titan -- This is probably the most controversial choice. I understand this card is extremely powerful, but one problem with Wolf Run decks right now is their reliance on titans. Resolving a titan no longer means automatically winning the game. I do have the eight titan spots filled, just not all with titans. Three Primevals, three Entreat the Angels, and two Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite fill the spot of "titan" in this build.

2 Pillar of Flame, 1 Oblivion Ring -- I wanted three targeted removal spells in the deck. I started with all three of those spots as Pillar, but right before the event I decided to diversify my removal a little bit. There is not as much red mana as in most versions either so I wanted some removal that could be cast with other colors.

1 Huntmaster of the Fells, 2 Garruk Relentless -- Is Huntmaster better than Garruk? Yes, by a lot. I chose these numbers because the planeswalker has a lot of synergy with Terminus.

4 Terminus -- This card is the entire reason I played this deck. It was the best card in my deck by far and every game I cast it, I won easily. I did not think Day of Judgment was good enough because of undying creatures but Terminus deals with them permanently.

I would have played more than four copies if I were allowed. Because of this, it may be just better to play a deck with both Terminus and blue mana so you can draw them more often with Ponder, Thought Scour, and Think Twice.

1 Kessig Wolf Run, 1 Slayers Stronghold -- The red-white land was actually one reason that I wanted to play white mana in Wolf Run. Haste and vigilance combine really well together, especially in a deck that is often in a defensive position. Stronghold also allows you to turn Inkmoth Nexus into a clock without using all of your mana.

Ultimately I am satisfied with my deck choice even if I was not successful with it. Sometimes you have to take risks like this if you want to play a rogue deck. As for changes, I think the two Pillar of Flame and one Oblivion Ring might need to be changed to Bonfire of the Damned, as I found throughout the event that four sweepers was not enough. Day of Judgment may be better than Bonfire in this deck so that is a possibility as well. As I mentioned, Day of Judgment is not ideal, but it may be enough in addition to Terminus.

I will continue to work with Terminus in this deck and others because it really is that good right now.

Cheering On Friends

While I didn't fare so well, the story of the PTQ was my friend, Josh Milikin, who took down the event. It is almost as great a feeling as winning yourself when one of your friends does really well in an event. Here is his list.

Mono Green Stompy

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Dungrove Elder
1 Champion of Lambholt
1 Borderland Ranger
2 Thrun the Last Troll
3 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Bellowing Tanglewurm
1 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Thragtusk
1 Acidic Slime

Spells

4 Green Suns Zenith
4 Rancor
2 Garruk Relentless

Lands

23 forest

Sideboard

1 Melira Sylvok Outcast
3 Torpor Orb
2 Dismember
2 Beast Within
2 Crushing Vines
2 Fresh Meat
1 Thragtusk
2 Overrun

There are a lot of things I like about Josh's list. One of the strongest aspects of this deck are actually the cards he didn't play. There are no copies of Revenge of the Hunted, no lands other than Forests, and no equipment. These oft-included cards make the deck clunky and fall prey to your opponents preparation.

The main reason I like his list is because it is streamlined. He plays the most copies of his best cards by playing the full four Green Sun's Zenith. In addition, he also plays Phyrexian Metamorph, which Josh said was amazing for him all throughout the event.

Of course the card that really put this deck over the top is Rancor. The reprinting of this enchantment will affect Standard the whole time it is legal. This version also plays two different ways to break through your opponents defenses. Both Champion of Lambholt and Bellowing Tanglewurm allow you push damage through while ignoring whatever your opponent is doing.

Overall, both decks offer you a competitive way to have fun in Standard right now. Give them a shot and remember to post your thoughts on best card in Standard below in the comments. Also, if there are any specific topics you would like me to discuss, post those below as well.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Return To Ravnica Speculative Thoughts

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As we venture into the month of August, we're getting closer and closer to rotation, and the current Standard metagame has shifted all sorts of different ways in the meantime. Although Delver is reappearing as the monster of the month, I feel this format may rotate before we've finished finding all the decks.

For a while, it felt like everyone wanted rotation to come crush Delver out of the format, but in my experience, people are enjoying tweaking and playing it or trying to beat it. Overall, it has been a pretty exciting Standard PTQ season. I've got my last PTQ for Return to Ravnica this coming weekend, and then the next relevant Standard tournament in my corner of the country isn't until 2012 States in fall.

What types of things are we looking for going into fall?

Prices are already well on their way to post-rotation and planning ahead can be rough without knowing what the format will look like in 8 weeks. Part of this is why people are so fanatic about spoilers and leaks. The more we know about Return to Ravnica, the more we can plan for its arrival. Right now we know very little. We know we have a large set, featuring 5 guilds: Azorius(W/U), Selesnya(U/G), Rakdos(B/R), Golgari(B/G) and Izzet(U/R).

That means as of release (October 5th), the new set will make up just over a quarter of the legal cards in the format. While Innistrad block strategies may come to shine in Standard, we may also see new support in these 5 color combinations. This week I'm going to look at each one, and think about what potential gainers might be, so we can be ready to move, or gamble early. Also, be sure to read Matt's article from earlier this week about Shocklands on MTGO.

Azorius

While U/W Delver has been the boogie-man for quite sometime, many feel it's time in the sun is gone once they lose Mana Leak and Ponder. While I don't think it's likely, a new counterspell may arrive that fills that role for this deck. Remand was from Ravnica, after all. Additionally, cards like Moorland Haunt don't care about Delver specifically, and would immediately be included in any creature based strategy that is supported.

We could see a continuation of last years U/W Haunted Humans deck, especially if we see amazing two-drops in RTR like Azorius Guildmage. Geist of Saint Traft has been falling precipitously, as it isn't even included in many current Delver builds, and is a powerful enough card to fuel a deck post rotation. If this card comes down much further, I see it as a solid target.

Selesnya

Selesnya was previously a token based guild and we may or may not see something similar this time around. If so, we could see cards like Intangible Virtue spike up. I think this is a great play as they can be found under for $0.50 a piece from various retailers, and this is a card that could be a big winner come time for States. Parallel Lives, while a long shot, could be a powerful effect. Something to consider.

Also, what token based strategy doesn't love a Gavony Township? That card's available at $3/set retail. Ajani likely fits in this strategy too, but isn't really in the conversation for speculation targets. Geist-Honored Monk saw a small amount of play in the anti-Delver strategies this Summer, and he could make a comeback as well (@ $1/set!).

Rakdos

Rakdos is an interesting one. Will vampires be a supported tribe in this guild? If so we could see some sweet tribal action in Stromkirk Captain. These are currently under $1/set, and if the deck is real, would easily quadruple in value. In this stage, that's a gamble, but at the first spoiling of a decent vampire, I'd be jumping on this train as quickly as possible.

A card like Flames of the Firebrand would be a sweet inclusion in a deck like this. While I wouldn't pick it up now, it is something to keep in mind. Even without vampires, there could be support for a Grixis control deck, dare I say it would include Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker? Who knows, but that is a card that would shoot up quickly if it did find a deck that could play it. Perhaps it's a U/B deck that uses Liliana to find a Blood Crypt to make it happen.

Golgari

Golgari is the first "enemy" colored pair we've seen yet. What the enemy color pairs bring is (likely) a full set of 8 duals for Standard. When combined with the Innistrad lands, we'll see Enemy colored strategies with the best mana they've seen since Reflecting Pool rotated from standard. Woodland Cemetery is at least in the conversation here, as it plays quite nicely alongside the Shocklands. G/B has never been a very popular Standard strategy, but has appeared in plenty of 3-color decks including Junk, Jund and BUG.

Out of the current standard, cards that stand out to me include Garruk Relentless, who has interesting synergies with black, triggering Morbid with his "fight" ability as well as his Tutor on the reverse side. Golgari was previously a graveyard-centric guild, if so, Morbid could be a central theme of a strategy involving the new cards. Of all the guilds, this one has the least action that's apparent to me thus far.

Izzet

Izzet is the one that has me drooling. U/R decks have always complained about terrible mana, and we're likely to see an end to that. Sulfur Falls may see a climb, but what else will we see? We have hints that Jace will be aligned with Izzet, but will he be U/R in color? Will the new Niv-Mizzet be constructed playable? Cards like Burning Vengeance are thought to be dead, not having gotten enough support in Innistrad block, but more flashback spells is not what that deck needs. It needs cantrips and rituals to fuel a Past in Flames kill. Red sweepers are a premium in such decks, so Bonfire of the Damned would be an inclusion in that strategy, but is way too close to it's ceiling to buy into for speculatory purposes.

In a true Counter-Burn strategy, Rewind gets strong, as does Talrand, Sky Summoner. Talrand is still a bit inflated, considering it's in an Intro Deck, but if it creeps down at all, I'd be willing to gamble on him. Typically in most U/R decks, we see a lot of powerful common/uncommons doing more than their typical fair-share of work, due to overwhelming synergies, so junk uncommons that may hit the limelight aren't limited to Burning Vengeance. Mystic Retreival and Desperate Ravings may find their time to shine. Lastly, the Desolate Lighthouse is one that fits in a controlling U/R very easily.

Okay, Now What?

October is still a ways away, but that doesn't mean you can't get prepared. First, figure out what else I missed. Secondly, you can start picking favorites, and investigating where to find each the cheapest, so that when news comes out, you can be primed to swoop up your targets quickly. Further, you can start to plan a budget for the season: How much do I want to put into speculation this season? What's a reasonable expectation of my return? How does my expected return compare to my risk and how does that compare to other options available to me?

This is all a jumping point for broad speculation without even looking at Block strategies from last year. If this type of article is well received, we can focus similarly on the Block strategies in the future.

Behave Yourself: On Bad Gaming Habits and Proper Play Etiquette

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After my unspectacular finish in Columbus I found myself playing in a TCG Player sealed side event on day two.

It was there that I battled what was probably the rudest player I had ever played against.

He gave me a “you were dead next turn” after I beat him in game one (with no respect to my five cards in hand nor the fact that I would have played differently had he actually had any shot in that game) and very angrily flicked the match slip at me while giving me a death stare as I signed it.

Sure, my turn one Arbor Elf into turn three Chandra was pretty nuts, but welcome to sealed.

Now, it might be true that I made a called shot that I wanted to “ruin that kid’s day” at the very beginning of the tournament, and it also might be true that I giggled uncontrollably as I shuffled up for our match in round four, but I’m not trying to make myself out to be a hero here.

What I’m getting at is that there is a lot of rudeness going around in the world of competitive Magic and that it would be great for the game as a whole if we all worked harder at respecting our fellow competitors. I’ve frequently heard many players saying that they can’t stand the competitive nature of even an FNM, which is pretty much supposed to be casual Magic with promos.

Below I have compiled a non-exhaustive list of bad behaviors in which I regularly see players engaged. Some of these offenses are more absent-minded than rude, but I believe that all of these behaviors have some negative impact on Magic as a whole.

On Checking Pairings

This section doesn’t really apply to smaller tournaments at all, but it’s something that you’ll see all the time at Grand Prixs and SCG Opens.

Blocking the Pairings Board to Line up Your Pairing

Don't block the pairings board. Don't be a Snorlax.

This one feels like a no-brainer to me, but I always see somebody doing this. A player’s table number is listed about an inch away from their name. There is no reason that you need to use paper or a card to line the two up. All that you’re really accomplishing is making it impossible for people with names after yours to find their tables.

I apologize if there is some manner of visual impairment that makes lining up such objects especially difficult for some portion of the population, but I can match up my pairing from two or so feet away.

Yelling All of Your Friend’s Pairings

Listen, I know that you like your friends a lot. I’m sure that they’re great people and all, but they should have to wait in line just like everybody else. Not to mention that by turning around to call to them you are either taking up more space and preventing somebody else from seeing the board or yelling in somebody’s ear.

Shuffling Etiquette

Riffling Your Opponent’s Deck

Or at least ask first if you really feel the need to. Even if they riffle their own deck, even if their deck is beat to hell because of it, you should still ask.

The reason for this being that there is no actual uniformity to riffle shuffling. Different players' fingers will fall on different places on the deck and apply different levels of pressure. I know multiple players who riffle in such a way that I can always tell which cards are theirs. If you had multiple such players riffle one anothers' decks, then they’d just end up a crumpled mess.

Of course, if you play a limited deck unsleeved then you should be aware that you are giving your opponent an invitation to riffle your deck. There is just no other way to reasonably shuffle unsleeved cards.

Flipping Your Opponent’s Deck Around

I’m not even sure how this one even happens, but it tends to happen to me at least once a tournament. When you pick up your opponent’s deck to shuffle it, you should make sure you put it back facing the same direction as when you picked it up. Honestly, I don’t know what part of shuffling has anything to do with changing the orientation of the deck, so this one is really baffling to me.

Shuffling Your Opponent’s Deck for in Game Shuffle Effects

This one isn’t especially rude, but it just eats time off the clock. If your opponent is a documented cheater then this is acceptable. I can also see doing it at very high level play when both players are otherwise playing at a crisp pace. For the most part, though, a simple cut should do the trick.

Pile Shuffling More than Once and/or Late in the Round

Don't be this guy.

I strongly recommend that everybody familiarizes themselves with this piece by Michael Flores on pile shuffling.

Basically, the point of his post is that pile shuffling is inefficient, not random and only useful in terms of counting a deck. Performing two pile shuffles before one game is a fantastic way to eat clock and will increase the number of unintentional draws you receive overall.

Performing a pile shuffle after a long game is behavior that I would argue borders on stalling, though in most players hands I am willing to admit that it is probably unintentional. Do everybody a favor and share the above Flores post though. It is beneficial on multiple levels.

This is another thing that I don’t think is rude, per se, but it is ungodly boring to watch my opponent pile shuffle while I actually randomize my deck.

Communication

Wearing Headphones

Why do people insist on doing this? Even if you don’t have the time of day for your mouth-breathing gorilla of an opponent, there is still going to come a time when the headphones are going to have to come off. Not everything can be communicated nonverbally.

Oh, and you look like a giant tool when you play with your headphones in.

Not Confirming Life Totals

This is something that is especially relevant in eternal formats. People near-constantly miss the life loss from fetchlands and Force of Wills. It takes all of two seconds to confirm life total changes as they happen.

I played against an extremely unpleasant individual piloting Merfolk when last I was in Indianapolis and he would never confirm when I stated life totals aloud. I don’t know if his intention was to tilt me or if he was just otherwise being a curmudgeon, but it made the entire match miserable.

Belittling Your Opponent

This one comes in all shapes and sizes. There is no reason to be ill-tempered with your opponent when they nut you out. It’s not like you’ve never done the same. Take your beating in stride and get on with it.

One of the more bothersome exchanges that I’ve seen happened at the most recent SCG Invitational. Michael Jacob was playing against some kid and the kid wasn’t sure what happened when his Gilded Drake died in response to its trigger. MJ explained that the exchange wouldn’t happen and the kid decided to call a judge. You know, like you’re supposed to.

To this, MJ responded by stating, “I know how Magic works, but whatever.” I couldn’t really believe what I was hearing. The very purpose of having judges is to clear up such questions. And you’re not supposed to trust your opponent in the first place. MJ was attacking his opponent for engaging in exactly the type of behavior that he should be expected to engage in.

Another thing that bothers me is when people accuse their opponents of slow rolling when their opponent clearly just didn't see the play. This happens to everyone. For instance, it takes me significantly longer to pilot a deck filled with tutors than it does for me to pilot one without.

Additionally, sometimes your opponent is just less experienced than you are. Just chill out and give the kid a break. When somebody is actually slow rolling you, it should be obvious.

Pace of Play

Your pace of play isn’t only important to you and your opponent. When you go to time, you cost everybody in the event hall a chunk of their day as well. Fifty minutes should be more than enough time to finish three games the vast majority of the time. If you’re going to bring a deck like lands to an event, then do everybody a favor and make yourself immensely familiar with the deck.

Not Acknowledging When You’re Drawing Dead

I cannot tell you how many games I’ve watched drag on for tens of turns despite one of the players drawing to a no-outer. Most often this happens in limited games at small shops. I know that it sucks, but you should really just be honest about it and scoop when your opponent lands that unbeatable Akroma's Memorial. You’re not going to have any fun playing the game anyway.

I understand that there is some merit to playing unwinnable game ones for a few extra turns to try to see more cards or to try to make your opponent think you have outs, but there is generally no reason to drag out the last game in a match.

Playing Turbofog

Don’t play Turbofog. It’s bad, and if it’s the type of deck that you enjoy playing you should feel bad. You are worse than the guy playing Battle of Wits. At least they can win in turns.

Post Game Etiquette

Not Extending the Hand

I get cut off like this all the time.

It is my firmly held belief that the loser should always extend the hand in order to concede. Even when your opponent’s sealed deck has 15 more rares than yours. Even when your opponent made a thousand more misplays than you did. Just do it. It’s a sign of integrity and it shows that you have respect for the game. I’m not perfect in this regard, but it’s something that I do far more often than not.

And don’t forget to give a good handshake. Limp handshakes and cutting your opponent off are not acceptable.

Showing Your Opponent How You Sideboarded

There is no greater way to dagger your opponent than to show them how wrongly you sideboarded after you beat them. If you lost then it’s perfectly acceptable to ask what you did wrong. Most players mean well when they win and do this, but it really just translates to rub-ins.

Additionally, showing your opponent what you still had in hand (aka, still had all deez) is extremely rude.

Saying GG

Geordie Tait’s “GG” is another piece that I recommend that everybody reads. The simple fact of the matter is that saying “GG” when the Gs were in fact not G, but were, rather B is another form of rub-ins. Geordie covers the intricacies of this very well.

~

I understand that, no matter how much is written on the topic, bad behavior in the community will persist. That said, I’m of the belief that there is intrinsic value in acting as a respectable human being. Magic is a great game, and acting in ways that cheapen the experience for others is pretty shameful behavior.

Personally, I stew over my own bad behavior just as much as I stew over misplays that I make. I treat each event as one more step towards reducing the instances of both, and I think that Magic would be a lot better if everybody did the same.

-Ryan Overturf

Jason’s Archives: Splendid Ways to Experience Magic, WotC’s Need of Editors & Innovation Not Good for But Silver

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Greetings, Speculators!

It isn't every day you get to touch a part of Magic history.

Recently I got to bear witness to a transaction that involved moving a copy of "Splendid Genesis" to the winner of a private auction. For those who don't know what exactly "Splendid Genesis" is, there is a Magic Wiki online that offers next to no help.

Basically, Dr. Garfield wanted to think of a way to commemorate a very special occasion in his life and then he remembered he had created the most popular trading card game in the history of ever and could just make a card to celebrate.

At 110 copies in total, Splendid Genesis is one of the rarest cards in Magic. Its intimate nature and collectible appeal mitigate its unplayability and makes it a chase cards of the highest order. The demand is low among players, which is fine, because so is the supply among ... everybody.

Snapping a grainy camera phone pic of this gem during its transition to the buyer was a fulfilling experience for me. It's easy to get jaded in the world of MTG finance when you routinely buy collections of power and duals only to out them as quickly as possible for profit. It's usually only later that you remember to slow down and remind yourself of the cooler aspects of having this many cards passing through your hands. "Woah, I owned a set of Power 9 there for a minute. How cool is that?"

In this instance, however, I didn't need to check myself at all. I was fully aware that I was holding a piece of Magic history (not literally; it was encased in an inch of polypropylene casing that could stop a Barret .50 caliber round [citation needed]).

The only card on earth more rare than an Alpha Fungusaur.

I work 70-hour weeks, have no retirement or health benefits and spend most weekends away from home, but it's moments like this that remind me that I have the best job in the world.

Does WOTC Need a Copy Editor? (I'm Available and Work Cheap)

I'm not even going to lie. I'm a bit of a pedant sometimes.

It genuinely bothers me when people use the wrong "your" or the wrong "its" or the wrong "to". While in most cases attacking grammar, syntax or spelling are the feeble tools of a losing argument, my assault on inaccuracy is my opening salvo. After all, how persuasive can your argument truly be if you can't make the simple distinction between "you're" and "your" (let alone more common and understandable errors like "enquire" vs. "inquire")?

Pedantry can lead to a few embarrassing situations when one makes an error of one's own; situations like that are so common they've spawned their own law. My editors both past and present can attest to my own writing being far from perfect. But it's nice to have hobbies; mine are Magic and nitpicking.

But I don't think it's nitpicking to point out a few of the more glaring errors made recently by a multi-million-dollar subsidiary of the world's largest toy company.

Do you guys remember my post a few weeks ago about the incorrect power and toughness of Firewing Phoenix? Refresh your memory here. It turns out they may not have been quite finished with their screw-ups in Duel of the Planeswalkers.

Let's face it, she was underpowered at 4/4.

Keen-eyed Redditor tellerfan caught another DotP error. It appears the missing toughness from the Phoenix ended up getting tacked on to a creature that probably didn't need the help. I already had to suspend my disbelief to accept the premise of a scantily-clad elf, who likely weighs 75 pounds when soaking wet, surviving a lightning bolt or killing four people in one attack-- let's not make it tougher by letting her survive a Char to the dome.



 

Pottery may not be super manly, but he's still better than all in my book.

Redditor Figworth noticed a pretty hilarious typo on a survey about cube drafting on the Magic Online website. Spell check won't help you if you accidentally type in a real word!



 

Someone let these go out like this. Talk about the end of wits.

I'm sure everyone has noticed by now the typo on Wit's End. Just remember not to correct Nicol Bolas. It sickens him.



 

Happy accident or the mark of anti-Magic ecoterrorists?

Redditor Chemaba shared this pic of what looks like the result of a leaf falling onto the printing sheet. What a nice binder page those four cards would make!

Buffalo Dreamstomp

A rare white buffalo was born this year in Goshen, Connecticut. This is a big event in the lives of the local Indian tribes, serving as a sign that things are going to get better. Unfortunately, it seems the universe has decreed that for this buffalo dream to live, another buffalo dream has to die.

This weekend in Buffalo, New York, Kurt Crane proved that if you come up with a novel and entertaining decklist, test it exhaustively and play the tightest Magic of your life, you too can live the dream of losing in the finals to the same stupid deck everybody has been playing since the printing of Restoration Angel. Isn't Magic fun?

Top 16 Standard Decks

Running four copies of both Genesis Wave and Green Sun's Zenith, Crane's Elf deck had multiple ways of building to a lethal crescendo. Village Bell-Ringer is one of the linchpins, untapping the elves used to cast a large Genesis Wave or Craterhoof Behemoth so they can join the alpha strike. [card Ezuri, Renegade]Ezuri[/card] is a great mana sink as well. While not quite a Glimpse of Nature, Soul of the Harvest has great potential for keeping the stream of elves going or just smashing domes in on his own. This is the kind of deck you really want to see win events.

Conversely, Carl Dillahay piloted a pretty unoriginal concept, albeit with a few updates that incorporated M13. Augur of Bolas and Talrand, the Sky Summoner both fit with the "play lots of instants and sorceries to flip my [card Delver of Secrets]Delver[/card]" theme we're all used to by now. Moving the Restoration Angels to the sideboard, this deck makes great use of Talrand. Great job, Carl!

The Top 8 consisted of three Delver decks and two Pod decks, which is becoming par for the course.

Also worth noting is Fabiano's Wolf Run Blue deck, which uses four Temporal Mastery to go all-in on the "I'm a big lucksack" plan, popular among Bonfire of the Damned proponents these last few months. Just how big of a lucksack is Fabiano, anyway? 40th place.

40th place is pretty good compared to the 319th place finish of Josh Cho. Maybe Standard isn't his format.

Top 16 Legacy Decks

But maybe Legacy is! Making room for Master of the Pearl Trident by trimming a few Coralhelm Commanders, Cho fishslapped the competition in Sabretown (is hockey big enough there to call it "Sabretown?" -- I feel like I made that up), warming the heart of Corbin "tha hussla" Hosler and other merfolk enthusiasts worldwide.

That hot European tech of jamming Omniscience into Show and Tell decks has caught on in a big way. Scoffing at hate like Gilded Drake and Stingscourger, this play off of a Show and Tell is good stuff. It also helps a bit to get the extra turn trigger off of [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card]. I don't know how permanent this development is, but seeing four copies in the Top 8 is encouraging.

Two copies of eight different decks comprised nearly the entirety of the Top 16. To me, that indicates what continues to be a healthy format. The anxiety revolving around Sneak and Show seems to have been unfounded as players have found myriad ways to keep its explosive power in check. Unbanning Land Tax seems to have been OK as well as zero copies appeared in the Top 16 here.

They may screw up the occasional flavor text, but WotC knows what they're doing when it comes to the Banned and Restricted list.

Divine Providence

Providence Standard Top 8 Decks

Shockingly, U/W Delver won in Providence. Oliver Tiu took an approach opposite the one from Buffalo and jammed Restoration Angels main and [card Talrand, the Sky Summoner]Talrands[/card] in the board. Otherwise the two winning decklists look very similar. That may not mean an unhealthy format, but it does make analyzing decklists boring. I really hate when the same deck keeps winning.

That's why I'm glossing over Tiu's list (Congratulations are in order though, no question. Way to go, Oliver!) to talk about something exciting that came out of Providence: this bad boy.

A Smallpox deck?! In Standard?! This kind of innovation is why I love looking at weekend decklists. I am definitely sleeving up this seventy-five for FNM this week. This deck was always nearly possible, and it may have been Ravenous Rats that finally gave it the gas it needed. Gravecrawler and Geralf's Messenger are obviously nutty with Smallpox, and Liliana of the Veil helps keep the edicts coming long after you run out of poxes. Attacking both their hand and the board, this deck mitigates the pain of symmetrical discard and sacrifices by recurring zombies to great effect.

Sure, neither of them won their events, but I think Joseph Snyder and Kurt Crane deserve a brofist for keeping Magic fun.

That's All for Now

Join me next week when I'll have some previews of the good times in store for the web's only financial podcast crew at Gencon.

Until next week!

Insider: Your Guide to Trading At GenCon

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With GenCon a little under two weeks away, this is a great time to get ready for trading your heart out at the world's largest Magic convention. Since there's plenty of Magic as well as all sorts of other games going on, it can take a little knowledge going in to get the best deals around. This week, I'll share some veteran GenCon info from myself and other long-term attendees. If you aren't sure that you're going to the con or if you have no plans, most of this information can be generalized into basic large-event information. Ergo, there's something for everyone.

Working the Dealer Hall

One of the best draws is the Dealer Hall, which is full of lots of Magic vendors looking to buy and sell you cards. The trouble is, the Dealer Hall is also slam-full of other dealers selling things. You'll see Fantasy Flight's board games, D&D product demos, the Magic Online beta testing and a goggle-boggling number of steampunk costume vendors. The hall can get really chaotic, making it hard to stand around in crowded aisles and browse bulk boxes.

Speaking of bulk boxes, they are home to some real hits. If you arrive early on Thursday or Friday, spend a little time looking through dollar boxes. While most dealers are pretty sure of their stock to set down the $1,000 a day to have a booth there, you can still find some real gems. Kelly still talks about the $1 AQ Hurkyl's Recall he dug out of a box a year ago! That said, I don't think it's worth spending a huge amount of time looking through bulk boxes unless you truly have nothing else to do. Foil boxes are the same way; now and then, you can pull out some extreme gems that dealers have no idea the value on. Have I bought Japanese Tendrils of Agony out of a junk foil box for $1 before? I have.

With so many dealers around, you can also get the best prices for your cards. I was shopping out some Grim Monoliths last year that needed to get out of my inventory. Prices varied from $7 to $20 and I probably would have settled for $14 if I hadn't kept looking. This can be time-consuming and a pain in the butt for dealers to deal with, but you can build a grid of buy prices for a dozen cards and look who is giving the best on it. Remember that a dealer should offer you more in trade credit and this is often negotiable - it never hurts to ask for 5% more than they're offering if you'd like to trade into some cards.

Next, the dealer hall is a great place to dump your bulk rares - but don't just unload everything you think is worthless and walk away. There are a few dealers - Troll and Toad and Strike Zone come to mind - that will honestly look through your stacks and give you real values. I've been with a friend before who went up with 300 bulk rares, wanted his dime apiece, and ended up getting closer to $120. Not all dealers will do this for you; seek out the ones who will, in non-peak hours. In terms of GenCon, this means during work hours on Thursday and Friday.

A trip down Artist Alley

Another huge appeal for me is the Artist Alley, where many Magic artists reside and will sign cards for free or a small donation. This can be a mixed bag because people like Wayne Reynolds are immensely popular - think Wild Nacatl and Cunning Sparkmage. It can take half an hour or more to get your cards signed by them. If you really want to get the most out of the Artist Alley, be sure to look up the full artist list a few days before the event and then Gatherer-search their cards to set aside.

Be aware that signing almost universally decreases the value of the card. The only exception I can think of is Fay Jones of Stasis, who is just about the hardest signature to get.

GenCon is also one of the very few times you'll see some Magic artists out and about. April Lee, of Intuition and Lotus Petal, only comes to GenCon. Susan Van Camp also makes an appearance - and she's kind of a character. She'll charge you for any signatures over four and she's been going through a "cats with fairy wings" period for the past decade.

If you want to get cards or artist proofs altered, be prepared to pay a few bucks and wait. If you have a huge stack to get signed, then sling the artist some dollars and let other people get their cards signed after every few of yours. I can't count the number of times that Jimmy Backpack has set 250 cards down in front of an artist and I just want to get three cards signed...

Finding the best times to trade

The best times to trade are kind of hard to narrow down; they come in bands. People coming there are mostly at GenCon to play Magic, not to trade. Thus, you'll have to hit a couple periods of time to make the most of trading. For example, I don't think it's worth doing a whole lot of trading on Thursday or Friday before about 5pm unless you want to do some high-volume trades with other like-minded traders. To hit the casual and local store crowds, it's best to start hunting around dinner on Thursday and Friday. Friday night is typically the Free FNM event. You might get a lot of traffic if you wait around until the end of the second round - people who drop might be interested in seeing your cards.

If you move Legacy or Vintage staples, then staying around for those events is a smart idea. While most of the Vintage people will be playing in the Vintage champs, they'll have a bit of time to trade in between rounds. This is only advised if you have some real Vintage hits or oddities. Japanese Spell Snares play, English Huntmasters do not.

Trading happens at all hours because the TCG Hall is open all day and all night. During the day, all you're going to run into will be sharks - don't get deep in those waters unless you really want to. However, long after the sharks have gone off to a steakhouse and the dealers have closed up, people are still playing and trading. It's truly a 24-hour event; you can get some monster trades done at 4am if you decide that you're going to be a night owl instead of an early bird. I'd go so far as to say that you've got the best trading field available late at night.

Finding the elusive and skittish casual trader

While GenCon sprawls all over the convention center, remember that there are people playing Magic in the hotel lobbies and hallways all over Indianapolis. If you're looking for more casual traders, it's absolutely worth it to go looking in the Marriott lobby in the mornings for Magic players. I don't advise trying to rip these guys off, but they might be more interested in your casual cards than other people are. I find that even when I explain that yes, your Snapcaster is worth $17 and I'm willing to trade multiple cards for it, I often end up getting rid of what I consider low-end, low-volume cards for good binder materials at a fair trade. These players often don't want to trade with people inside the convention itself, since they feel out of their depth. The best approach isn't to go up and say "got a trade binder?" but to engage people about how cool something is that's happening on the board and going from there into asking about trading.

It's imperative that you never let on that you're just around to trade with people - always have something specific that you can say you're looking for. Remember that casual players are easily scared off of trading because they and their friends have been ripped off before! You can say "hey, I'm looking for weird old foil cards for a cube deck, do you have anything like that on you?" or "I'm trying to get a fourth Restoration Angel for my deck, can any of you guys help out?" It helps to have a physical short-list of cards that you're hunting for, too.

It also pays to stack a binder for low-end trading. You want to do everything you can to NOT look like a trading machine. This means that those Unlimited dual lands go in another binder. It means you don't flash around expensive Standard staples to them or brag. If you assume the appearance of a small-time Magic player, you can get access to more binders. Again, it pays to be friendly about the game of Magic.

General Safety

"I keep my bag wrapped around my leg, I keep it on my shoulder when I'm walking around, and I never let it out of my sight."

This strategy works until you're taking a wizz and someone pushes you into the urinal, grabs your bag and takes off. This actually happens. Don't make yourself a target; don't flash around any cards you aren't willing to trade or lose. Drop your things off in the hotel room when and if you can. Don't show off stacks of cash. I even go so far as to use bathroom stalls instead of the ol' trough - better safe than sorry! The buddy system is also essential. Even two scrawny dorkolites, no greater than 1/1s, can keep predators away. People can also jack your iDevices, so be aware.

Remembering what you're there for

GenCon is great to trade at but it's best used as a convention - meet people, have a great time and see some cool stuff. I've developed many friendships through conventions and there's a cast of characters that I look forward to seeing each year when I return. Make the most of it!

If you have GenCon tips and tricks or if you have specific questions, please share your comments below.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

getting casual traders

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Building for Commander — An Extensive Undertaking

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Hello and welcome! My name is Andy Martin and I am a long-time Magic player from Minnesota. I started when 5th Edition came out and have played ever since (cracking Shivan Dragons was sweet). While I have dabbled in almost every format Magic has to offer and spent quite a bit of time playing competitively, I usually gravitate back towards casual formats. The one competitive format that does still hold my interest is Limited. But my passion is Commander.

A judge friend of mine introduced me to Commander a few months after it's creation, and I found it to be a refreshing take on casual Magic. I've spent the last few years building and tearing apart Commander deck and loving every minute of it. I hope these articles provide my readers with unique and refreshing perspectives on Commander and keep the format going strong.

Building a Commander deck can be quite a daunting task, especially if you haven't played Magic for 15+ years. Even if you have, the pool of quality Commander cards is so much more vast than in other formats which can be overwhelming.

Today I am going to show the step-by-step process I use when creating a new Commander deck. Hopefully you can employ these strategies yourself and get the full value out of what Commander has to offer.

Step 1: An Idea

When I run across a deck with an arbitrary commander and ninety-nine remaining cards seemingly chosen with no synergy in mind, it makes me cringe. This is what I call a 'good card Commander deck'.

I see this all the time, most often with new Commander players. I am certainly not allowed to say this isn't fun, but you will never see any of my decklists built like this. To truly unlock the splendor of Commander your deck needs to create an interesting game of Magic for you and your opponents. I believe this is most easily done with dynamic synergies.

This brings us to step one, an idea. Every time I build a Commander deck, it needs to have at least one theme. Here are a few themes that are easily doable in Commander:

  • [card Doubling Season]Tokens[/card]
  • [card Living Death]Reanimator[/card]
  • [card Ghostway]"Enters the battlefield" triggers[/card]
  • [card Gilt-leaf Archdruid]Tribal[/card]
  • [card Stoneforge Mystic]Equipment[/card]
  • [card Replenish]Enchantments[/card]
  • [card Vicious Shadows]Death[/card]

These are just a few, and the list goes on and on. As you become a seasoned deck builder, you will begin to derive decks that make use of obscure themes people would never expect. This is the most satisfying kind of deck for me.

Choosing a theme prior to building your Commander deck will ensure that you have many fun synergies and interactions to keep your deck exciting. The above strategies are so broad that they can be used as the sole theme of a deck without requiring much filler. When using more obscure themes with fewer available cards (e.g. tribal snakes) it will be helpful to add a second theme so your deck doesn't devolve into a boring collection of 'good cards'.

Step 2: Choose a Commander

Another folly that I encounter in a lot of decks is the irrelevant commander. I can't tell you how many times I've watched my opponent do nothing turn after turn while his/her commander sits in the command zone, only to remark after losing, "Oh, I guess I could have played my commander." Your commander should not be an afterthought! He is the identity of your deck and you should be excited to play him as soon as possible.

I often begin with a theme or two and choose my commander afterwards, although sometimes a commander will inspire a theme. Choosing a commander requires a simple gatherer search for every legend printed. There may be several choices that fit the theme, but a lot of times one will stick out.

Say I want to make a reanimator-themed deck. Here are a few options that I would consider as a commander, followed by some pros and cons for each.

Balthor the Defiled

Pros:

  • He reanimates a lot of creatures at once and can easily be repeated because he exiles himself.
  • Low mana cost (relative to most commanders).

Cons:

  • Mono-colored.
  • Little chance of utilizing commander damage.
  • Might help opponents.

Bladewing the Risen

Pros:

  • He is a reanimator target himself.
  • He can be quite aggressive with his pump ability.

Cons:

  • High mana cost.
  • Only reanimates dragons.

Chainer, Dementia Master

Pros:

  • Repeatable, cheap reanimation.
  • Can reanimate opponents' creatures.

Cons:

  • Mono-colored
  • Little chance of utilizing commander damage.
  • Lose reanimated creatures if he dies.

All three of these are solid choices, but Bladewing the Risen catches my eye. I like this choice because it forces a secondary dragon theme (which isn't much of a handicap as there are so many dragons) and he is two colors. This opens up much more design space.

Step 3: The 'Theme' Core

I put the theme(s) of the deck at the forefront of design and prioritize them first when choosing cards. I again turn to a gatherer search.

It requires a bit of thought to ensure I see all possible cards for my deck without spending hours weeding through every card ever printed. The first thing I do is set the filter to the colors of my commander. I obviously can't use cards outside my commander's color identity, so why look them up? Second, I carefully apply other filters to narrow the search to on-theme cards. This may require multiple searches.

Say I am making a blue-green deck with an "enters the battlefield" theme. My first gatherer search would be like this:

This provides me with every card in blue or green that does something when it enters the battlefield.

Or, back to the Bladewing the Risen deck, I would make these searches:

I usually have a text doc open to keep track of cards in consideration. This process provides me with a strong core of cards that establishes the deck's theme.

You may have noticed the lack of artifacts in the searches. I like to do two searches at the end for every artifact and land. If you don't want to peruse through that many artifacts you can apply the above filters to narrow the search. It's kind of hard to apply filters for lands, so I just look through all of them.

Step 4: Support Cards

This is where the 'good cards' go. Most of the time the theme won't fill all major aspects of a Commander deck, so we need to fill out the deck with good support cards. Here are some examples for the Bladewing deck:

Mass removal:

Targeted removal:

Card advantage:

Tutors:

Mana ramp:

These are some examples of 'good cards' that I would use to fill roles that my theme couldn't. Commander decks also need win conditions but my theme already fills this role quite well with a horde of terrifying dragons!

Evaluating card quality in Commander is much different than in any other format. Low mana cost is less relevant because games often go on and on and starting with forty life makes you stay in the game much longer. Also, because Commander is a multiplayer format, one-for-one cards should be minimized, except for particularly versatile or cost effective ones (think Vindicate or Terminate).

In my opinion generating a lot of extra mana is the key to victory, so I make sure that every deck I make has some sort of mana acceleration. Being able to cast your expensive spells first is usually good!

Step 5: Lands

This step is pretty straight forward. I just do a gatherer search for every land and choose the best ones for my deck. Be careful not to run too many lands that enter the battlefield tapped, because while the format is slow, being a turn behind the whole game still sucks. Also, make sure you have at least some basic lands for cards like Path to Exile, New Frontiers, Ruination or Blood Moon.

There are a few lands that are surprisingly powerful in Commander. Two that often get overlooked are High Market and Tower of the Magistrate. People often play stealing effects and being able to sacrifice your creatures for free is very beneficial. Tower of the Magistrate gives protection from artifacts to an opponent's creature that's reaching for a Sword of Fire and Ice or some other equally powerful equipment.

There are other lands that are better than you'd think, so don't be quick to pass judgment.

You can expect your opponent to be running lands like this as well, so it is a good idea to run Strip Mine, Wasteland, and Dust Bowl. Don't be a jerk and Strip Mine someone's first turn Plains though.

Step 6: Make the Deck

Now that I have a good database of cards I need to actually build the deck. Hopefully I have 20-40 solid candidates for cards fitting the theme. Once those are chosen, I add the filler 'good cards'.

I usually shoot for about 60 spells and 40 lands but there is a bit of wiggle room here. Remember this is a mana intensive format, so always err towards more lands and acceleration.

Step 7: Playtest

Once I have compiled a list I get to move onto the fun part: playing some Magic!

This is an important step because I want to find out the deck's weaknesses and what it's lacking. I always play several games against a variety of Commander decks before making any judgments about cutting or adding cards. As I play, I note which cards don't work with the theme as intended, whether the curve of the deck is too high, and which cards are beating me. Then I adjust accordingly.

I usually go through two or three versions of my deck before I get it how I want it. The process may take a while, but in the end I am rewarded with a finely-tuned, entertaining Commander deck.

I find it important to spend a lot of time crafting a deck to ensure your play experience with it is enjoyable. I've witnessed many people, including myself, hastily construct a Commander deck and take it apart within a day because it's just a pile of awkward cards that don't provide an entertaining game of Magic. Hopefully this article provides you with ideas and strategies to avoid this problem as you begin/continue exploring the world of Commander!

Andy Martin
arm7845@gmail.com

Insider: A GP Columbus Review

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GP Columbus has come and gone. Most people who attended already summarized their visit in the past week. I decided to de-prioritize my summary in favor of the Behavioral Economics discussion, which I believe was a well-received decision.

That being said, I did have some experiences and observations at the GP that I want to at least touch on. Some cards were easy to sell to dealers, while others were surprisingly cold. While my performance was solid at 5-3, it wasn’t necessarily anything worthy of words in this space. Therefore, the second portion of this article will be geared towards an observation Corbin has already touched upon along with a surprising exception or two.

Walking the Dealer Booths at GP Columbus

Entering the Grand Prix doors in Columbus, I had one financial objective in mind: to sell off some of my Alpha cards for profit. A few months before the event I developed a fascination with the scarcity of Alpha rares and the recent increase in buy prices that Star City Games had implemented. While everyone was drooling over Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker (which I’ll return to later) and other Modern stars, I was busy acquiring Alpha rares – even played copies – for as cheaply as possible.

Prior to the event, I had spent well over $700 on Alpha cards ranging from Giant Spider to Wheel of Fortune. While it was tempting to continue a collection of Alpha, I realized this would be a costly endeavor and it wasn’t my priority. I have a soft spot for many cards that I wish to hold onto, but Alpha cards did not necessarily fall into this category.


(A purchase I made on eBay leading up to GP Columbus)

I asked many contacts on site which vendor would be optimal to sell the Alpha cards to for maximum value. I even asked a couple of the different vendors for their opinions. Many of them suggested Strike Zone, so I headed to their booth. What happened next was highly unexpected.

I asked the person at Strike Zone if they’d pay well on Alpha cards and they seemed uninterested. There was a man wearing bright yellow sitting next to me, however, who said he would buy them. Turns out, it was Ogre, a guy who had his own booth. Because Ogre played in an “Alpha League”, which I had never heard of until then, he was highly interested in my Alpha.

Twenty minutes later we had just over $500 in deals on the table. After selling a few stragglers to Star City Games (who paid surprisingly well) I had made about $100 in profit from the Alpha cards I sold. I had difficulty moving the graded Alpha cards I bought, but I hope to eventually have some success with those on eBay.

Moving On

Many of you may not be interested in Alpha, but the point of this story was that profit can be had even selling to dealers. How many categories of cards can you buy from multiple individuals and sell straight to dealers for 20% profit (my average margin). Yet either people undervalue their played Alpha or dealers overvalue them. Either way, there is room for you to profit just as I did.

Another large sale I was pleased with was my SP Revised Savannah. I grabbed the card for $50 on MOTL a month ago and I was bound and determined to sell it for profit. I went from dealer to dealer asking them what they’d pay on the card and the first four dealers offered $50. Not good enough. I finally found a dealer selling their Savannah for $90, much too high. Sure enough they offered $60 on my copy and I snap-sold.

As for other sales, I made a surprising amount of money in selling sub-five dollar cards. I went from booth to booth and was delighted to see how many cards I could sell for just over bulk pricing. It’s a great feeling to get a buck on a card like Intruder Alarm, which sat in my binder for years. And no matter how many cards I sold to a vendor, the next vendor would identify more they wanted to buy.

Equally surprising were the cards I couldn’t move for a fair price. Every vendor offered me a mere eight bucks on Huntmaster of the Fells!? (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com)

I understand the card has been declining in value, but I also feel it should be stabilizing soon. The card has demonstrated its power in constructed play, it’s a Mythic Rare from a small set, and it should be well poised to perform once rotation occurs. Dealers’ lack of interest was unexpected.

The Innistrad Dual Lands also fetched disappointing amounts at the dealer booths. Many offered one to two dollars on them and I know they will be worth more. One dealer even confessed that these cards were likely to jump in price yet he could not offer me a penny more. The charts at blacklotusproject.com agree with the upward trend, which should continue as rotation occurs:

Needless to say, I did not sell many Standard cards at the event. It seems dealers are much more willing to negotiate on older cards than Standard. I suppose this makes sense based on the apparent supply of Standard vs demand, especially during the “Dead Zone”, as Corbin put it.

Few Cards Showing Life in the “Dead Zone”

I wanted to emphasize the validity of Corbin’s observations in his latest article: https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/07/insider-making-the-most-out-of-the-dead-zone/?ampt=2051172678

Independent of his article, I, too, have noticed the lack of inspiration this time of year. While I feel like Innistrad and Dark Ascension cards such as Huntmaster of the Fells and Geist of Saint Traft should be strong buys, their price trends do not reflect this. Standard staples like these have been on the steady decline. Even Snapcaster Mage has been hit by this “Dead Zone” (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

These cards are likely to be impactful in the new Standard and they will be even harder to find once Return to Ravnica is released. Yet, their prices are on the decline and it’s difficult to predict where they will end up. It appears based on their charts that their prices are almost stabilized and I may start buying soon, but not yet.

But just like the stock market, there is always a bull somewhere. Which cards are performing well right now? Take a look at my most recent fascination: Bonfire of the Damned (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com):

This is a trend I can get behind! And since I’ve been looking to pick up a set of these to play with in Standard, I happen to know firsthand that these cards cannot be found on eBay for less than $30 without ultimate patience. Star City Games is sold out of these at $39.99. Net, the upward momentum on this hot card is still there.

But how high can Bonfire reach? I am having a difficult time answering this question because there’s so little precedent in past Standard formats. When was the last time a red sorcery was the most valuable card in Standard??? Hammer of Bogardan from Mirage? Relentless Assault from Visions? Seriously, if you have the answer to this question I would be very interested in reading your thoughts on this one.

I don’t think there’s a single card in Standard hotter than Bonfire right now. But there may be other buys during this lull in speculation. Entreat the Angels is so powerful yet the card sells for as low as ten bucks on eBay. Innistrad Duals are on the rise yet they have not peaked. But as of right now, there are few sure things in the format.

Moving Forward

Once Return to Ravnica is released, Standard will coalesce into a more defined format. Hopefully it will be clear then which cards are all-stars and which ones deserve their downward trend.

Until then, it may be tempting to acquire the Standard cards you feel are viable in the new format. Cards like Snapcaster Mage and Geist of Saint Traft are at all-time lows, and if they are strong in the new Standard they should pick back up again. But if they aren’t, you could lose some significant value. The risk is yours to take in this scenario.

That is why I am moving in on Innistrad Duals, Bonfire of the Damned and Alpha rares. They seem like the cards with the most life in this “Dead Zone”.

In the mean time, perhaps it’s time to dig through my bulk commons and find as many Ponders and other $0.10 commons I can for the next Grand Prix, which will be GP Boston. Hope to see you there!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Basic Web Analytics for MTG eCommerce

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Figuring out how customers find your website is perhaps the biggest challenge of running any online business. As the president of technology at MTG Card Market, my responsibility is managing our technology stack, marketing and infrastructure. That means I'm the guy in charge of web analytics and SEO, alongside UI/UX.

I've learned a lot building Quiet Speculation and I've been applying the same skill set to MTG Card Market. A basic primer on how to figure out your traffic sources and user behavior patterns seems to be in order for those starting their own sites.

I use Google Analytics and, while others use things like MixPanel, I'm used to GA and have been using it for 3 years. It's easy to use, easy to set up and tells me what I need to know. I can also automate reports to send my team on a weekly basis. I set these reports up once, deciding which variables and dimensions to map, chart and visualize, and they get automatically generated and shipped out on whatever time table I so desire.

Having an analytics package in place is an absolute non-negotiable for an online business. You simply need to understand where your traffic comes from, what your users do, how long they spend on the site and from which pages they exit. While there are dozens of other dimensions you can track, these are crucial. Going forward, this piece will be assuming the use of Google Analytics.

Communicating With Your Team

To supplement these automated reports and infographics, I do a weekly traffic report write-up that I send to the team. In the early stages of development and launch, you'll want to explain to your team exactly what the metrics mean, how they compare to previous timeframes and the business implications behind them.

Remember that the majority, if not all, of your team is non-technical. I'm the Geek of Geeks: the rest of the team are MTG players/traders and/or investors. They have no idea what a good "bounce rate" is, nor do they know how to read a page navigation summary visualization. They want to know the take-aways, actionables and forecasts.

One of our investors relayed some great advice he received from a mentor: He explained that I don't need to give him the whole story, just the 5 basic points that the executives need to understand.

Initially, I will explain the whole story to ensure a baseline level of competency on the team, but going forward I avoid rehashing the fundamentals. They can ask for clarification if they need it.

Different Traffic Sources

Direct Traffic: This is traffic that comes from a visitor typing in your URL (http://www.mtgcardmarket.com) or clicking a bookmark. This is not an especially useful number, since there is no one source you can verify. We hand out business cards and stickers at events, which can easily turn into a direct traffic referral. If you get a biz card and wish to visit our site, you'll just type in our URL in all likelihood.

Organic Search: Visitors who are searching on keywords relevant to your site's topic or name. We probably get a lot of people who search "MTG Card Market" in Google instead of typing in the full URL. Again, this tells us very little. Unfortunately, recent changes to Google Analytics make it impossible to know which keywords are being searched, so we have to play stupid guessing games.

Paid Search: Only applicable when you run an AdWords campaign, these visitors are directly correlated to the ads you pay to display on Google. I generally do not like this scattershot approach to traffic and publicity, so I cannot speak to the method any further.

Referral Traffic: This is the one you care about. We can break down exactly which sites are sending us traffic. It should come as no surprise that our biggest referrers are Facebook and Twitter, given that I have a large following on both channels. We use these channels to fire off deals, specials and to announce new rare items added to our site.

Knowing your referral sources is crucial, since you can easily target the effectiveness of different strategies. When I first started QS, I did nothing but put a link to my site in my forum signature on assorted MTG boards. That generated bout 100 hits a day, enough to bootstrap me into bigger and better things.

Coupon Codes for Tracking

Sometimes you can't track the referral source, as with the business card example above. In this case, you can opt to add a coupon code to the mix. Your eCommerce package should allow for this. In the biz card example, we could hypothetically include a coupon code on the card itself, like "BCARD001", that gives 5% off. (And no, that code is not active. Don't bother!) This way, we can check redemption logs to see how many of the biz cards converted into sales.

Derive the cost of a biz card, multiply by the number you give away, and compare that to the number of coupon redemptions. You've just figured out the ROI on business cards! Don't forget to account for the 5% hit on your retail price too.

What Are These Numbers?

Here are a few numbers that you'll want to focus on when learning the basics of your analytics package:

Visitors and Unique Visitors: Google Analytics can tell when you've been to our site before, and while we want to know how many of our visitors are returning vs new, that's a separate metric. The Visitors number tells us how many times our site is navigated-to. Unique Visitors removes all the duplicates and tells us, approximately, how many individuals are coming in. While it's harder to account for visitors using multiple devices, the number is accurate enough.

When you correlate your unique visitor count to your sales numbers, you can start to get an idea of what the average visitor is "worth", how many of them reliably convert into sales, and if you set up your Analytics right you can even see the path the user took through your site, from entrance to the closed sale.

New vs Returning: I personally like to keep this number close to 50%. The farther it deviates from 50/50, the worse, because we are either not getting enough new eyes on the site or we are not retaining enough customers. I'm glad to say that MTG Card Market is hitting this target very effectively on an ongoing basis!

Bounce Rate: Ever get to a site, finish the article and the X out? That's a bounce. Defined as a visit that leaves the site instead of viewing other content, a high rate of bounces is not disired. Bounces happen, but if it's over 30% you should be worried. You might want to make sure that other content on the website is easily accessible and has some solid incentive to encourage readers to keep reading.

Mobile vs Desktop: We designed MTG Card Market to be very mobile-friendly. I just spend an evening at a lecture on UI/UX design, and I learned that the average eCommerce site has a 90/10 split on desktop/mobile. This number is considerably higher outside North America, since most of Africa and Asia visit websites almost exclusively on mobile devices. As this number grows in North America, the importance of your mobile site grows too.

You also want to take into consideration that, in my experience, mobile users spend between 50%-80% less time on your site and visit fewer pages overall. Considering most mobile users are engaged in short, 2-minute bursts while waiting in line at the bank or on public transportation, you want to remove as many finger-taps as possible between the customer's first navigation and the point of sale.

Tying It All Together

While the world of analytics is vast and the dimensions you can track are almost limitless, this should give you a baseline level of competency when you fire up your Google Analytics account for the first time. Get creative and try to think about different ways you can mix and match dimensions to try to predict user behavior.

There are so many variables: perhaps you want to know how iOS users in Canada are finding your website. Maybe you're curious to see how many non-mobile users came from a link on QuietSpeculation.com. The rabbit hole goes far deeper than you can imagine, but if you're a creative scientist, there's no end to the correlations you can find.

As Barney Harford, the CEO of Orbitz.com, told me, you want to capture every single click of the user's mouse if you can. There's no downside to gathering data from Day 1, even if you have no idea how to use it. That's the beauty of data: there are usage cases you can't even imagine until you've already got the data.

Adventures in Qualifying: Grand Prix Columbus

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What do you get when you mix one part road trip, two parts convention center, and a dash of thousands of Magic players? A Grand Prix of course! Hopefully you know of the Grand Prix this weekend in Columbus because you were fortunate enough to be in attendance. I talked a while ago about what an epic experience these large events are and Columbus was no exception.

Modern was the format to solve for this event and pros from all over showed up to walk the walk. Modern is becoming more accessible, so if you're still new to the format don’t let that intimidate you. Hopefully we will get the Ravnica shock lands back when we Return to Ravnica this fall but until then there are plenty of affordable decks to build.

If you are at all familiar with Modern, the Top Eight decks should be unsurprising. Here are the decks that made it to the elimination rounds.

  • Jund
  • Birthing Pod Combo
  • RUG Delver
  • 3x RWU Delver
  • Affinity
  • RG Tron

Cats, Insects and Spirits: All American Team

The big story of this event was certainly the All American Delver deck. With three copies breaking into the Top Eight, players will have to acknowledge this deck as a contender moving forward. The other decks were fairly typical known quantities.

I also played the new Delver of Secrets deck in Columbus. This summer I identified RWU Delver as one of the most underrated decks in Modern and began working with it. Before this Grand Prix, most players did not know this deck needed to be taken seriously. Now I’m sure players will be prepared for it. Rather than posting my own deck list from the event, I will post the three that were most successful.

Chris Piland
6th place at Grand Prix Columbus

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
2 Geist of Saint Traft
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Steppe Lynx
1 Vendilion Clique

Spells

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Path to Exile
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions
2 Spell Snare

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
3 Marsh Flats
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

2 Disenchant
1 Dispel
1 Grim Lavamancer
2 Kor Firewalker
4 Molten Rain
2 Relic of Progenitus
3 Spell Pierce

 

Shahar Shenhar
5th place at Grand Prix Columbus

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Steppe Lynx

Spells

1 Faithless Looting
1 Gitaxian Probe
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Path to Exile
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions
1 Vapor Snag

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
1 Marsh Flats
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
4 Gifts Ungiven
1 Isochron Scepter
4 Molten Rain
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind
1 Unburial Rites
2 Vendilion Clique

 

Max Tietze
3rd place at Grand Prix Columbus

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
3 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Steppe Lynx

Spells

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
1 Mana Leak
4 Path to Exile
2 Pillar of Flame
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Island
2 Marsh Flats
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Annul
2 Kor Firewalker
4 Molten Rain
1 Negate
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Smash to Smithereens
2 Spell Pierce
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Sword of War and Peace
1 Twisted Image

Let’s start with the most important fact about Red White Blue Delver: it has raw power. It puts the opponent on a clock immediately and then disrupts or delays their game plan. It also gets to play one of the most powerful creatures in Modern, Geist of Saint Traft. Lots of decks in the format simply fold to a six-power hexproof beatstick.

The deck plays out like a Zoo deck from Legacy. It casts a tier one creature on turn one and backs it up with awesome removal like Path to Exile, tempo cards like Remand, and the most efficient burn spells in the format in Lightning Bolt and Lightning Helix. Opponents who mismanage the game will be dead before they know it.

Taking It Out for a Spin

Even though I didn't make Day Two, I feel a small amount of pride for having chosen the right deck for the tournament. Clearly it was not my day. I realized this as I continued to draw opening hand after opening hand without a one-mana play and proceeded to draw my Steppe Lynxs on turn four or later. This is obviously not the way you want the deck to run. Here is my short event recap.

Round 1 – Bye

1-0

Round 2 – RG Tron

Many players use valuable spots in their sideboard for Molten Rain to make this match better. I say why try to improve something that is already amazing? In my opinion, no spots in your sideboard should be devoted to this match because you are a strong favorite. Your early clock and loads of burn spells are nearly impossible for the ramp deck to deal with. I was able to take this match down in two quick games.

2-0

Round 3 – RG Tron

After destroying my last opponent, I was feeling confident about this match and the event in general. I played well and even though I lost a game and then mulliganed to five in game three, I still took the match. If you are on the Tron side of this match, do not over-sideboard because you need the core of your deck to remain intact to make sure you can execute your plan.

3-0

Round 4 – GB Rock

For most of this match I thought I was playing against Jund and based my decisions on that. In reality, I was playing against a more controlling deck that closed out the game with Loxodon Warhammer. I don’t think that piece of equipment is viable in Modern, but it certainly did beat me up. If I had found red mana sooner in game two, my triple Lightning Bolts and Lightning Helix would have sent it to game three. This didn’t happen though and I picked up my first loss to a deck I felt I should have beat.

3-1

Round 5 – RUG Delver

This is basically a mirror match where they have the edge because of cards like Cryptic Command. My opponent this round beat me down soundly with an answer to every card I played in both games. I remember telling my friends how well I played in this match and how much that didn’t matter because of his sick draws. If RWU Delver becomes a big part of the format, we may see RUG Delver rise in popularity to combat it.

3-2

Round 6 – Sig with Birthing Pod Combo

It was great to finally meet Sigmund in person after talking to him online and working with him here on Quiet Speculation. It was also great to play such an intense match of Magic. All three games were insanely close and could have been won by either deck. In the end though, Pod won the match and ended my tournament.

3-3

Overall this deck is a blast to play but quite skill intensive. You must know when to use your burn spells on your opponents creatures and when to send them at your opponent. If you plan to play this deck, make sure you test some games against a variety of decks so you are prepared for the in-game decisions.

Next week I will hopefully have a great Standard PTQ report for you guys. First I'll need to figure out what deck I am playing.

Until next time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Targeting Real Estate on MTGO

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The announcement of the structure of the new Ravnica block has opened up a good speculative opportunity. The first set, Return to Ravnica, will consist of the Selesnya (G/W), Izzet (U/R), Golgari (B/G), Rakdos (B/R) and Azorious (W/U) guilds. Under the assumption that the Shocklands will be reprinted in the set where the corresponding guild appears, then Temple Garden, Steam Vents, Overgrown Tomb, Blood Crypt and Hallowed Fountain will appear in Return to Ravnica (RtR).

This will leave Sacred Foundry, Watery Grave, Stomping Ground, Godless Shrine and Breeding Pool to be printed in Gatecrash, the second large set in the block. These lands correspond with the Boros (R/W), Dimir (U/B), Gruul (R/G), Orzhov (W/B) and Simic (G/U) guilds respectively.

Given the information of the block structure and the assumption that Shocklands will be reprinted within the block, there is a distinct asymmetry which speculators should be aware of. Mana bases for decks that feature the guild colour combinations from RtR will be more robust in Fall Standard than the guild colour combinations from Gatecrash. Also, powerful multicolour cards will be appearing with the RtR guilds.

Having access to the Shocklands and powerful multicolour cards for half the guilds will skew Standard in the direction of those guilds. For a historical comparison, peruse the top 8 Standard deck lists from Worlds 2005, which featured 9th Edition, Kamigawa Block and Ravnica: City of Guilds.

Selesyna Crashes Worlds 2005

Japan broke out in 2005 as a Magic powerhouse, and their crowning achievement was placing 3 players in the top 8 as well as Katsuhiro Mori taking the title of World Champion.  The breakout deck of the tournament, which all three of the Japanese representatives played, was a Selesnya concoction featuring the token generators Selesnya Guildmage and Vitu-Ghazi The City Tree powering up Glare of Subdual.

Overall, 17 copies of Loxodon Hierarch and 13 copies of Temple Garden appear among the top 8 decks. The cards from the first Ravnica set skewed the environment strongly in the direction of the four guilds introduced therein. We can expect RtR to have a similar impact on Fall Standard.

In these decks, we can also see that redundancy in the mana bases is valuable. Painlands are present with Brushland, Yavimaya Coast and Underground River all making contributions to the stability of the mana bases. From a speculators perspective, this would indicate that we should examine M13 and Innistrad block for attractive real estate.

The core set duals have been printed enough that there is little upside to speculating on these. With Golgari and Izzet returning as guilds, the best bets corresponding bets are Woodland Cemetery and Sulfur Falls. Both cards will work well with their respective guild Shocklands and history indicates that these colour combinations will be over represented relative to the as yet unprinted guilds. Sulfur Falls also benefits from appearing in Modern U/R combo decks.

Applying a similar logic to the various utility lands from Innistrad block, the best bets to see play are Gavony Township and Moorland Haunt, which have both proven to be playable in Standard as well as Modern, where mana bases are robust. Desolate Lighthouse, Grim Backwoods and Stensia Blood Hall each might get some attention in Fall Standard, but they have not proven to be constructed playable as of yet so speculating on these is for gamblers only.

Return to Ravnica and Modern

Looking out beyond Fall Standard towards the Modern PTQ season starting at the end of year, there will be a plentiful supply of the new Shocklands but the same number of the old Shocklands.

For MTGO speculators, correctly timing the purchase of Shocklands has been a profitable endeavor and another opportunity has presented itself. Leading up to the new Modern season, general price inflation will occur for all Modern staples as speculators get on board and as players prepare for the season by rounding out their decks. But this season will begin with an abundance of half the Shocklands, the ones printed in RtR, and a dearth of the others - the ones to appear in Gatecrash.

For this reason, focusing on the Shocklands that are expected to be printed in Gatecrash is the best bet as the run up to this year’s Modern season will occur before the release of Gatecrash.

For MTGO, the Shocklands that appeared in Dissension have the highest prices, followed by Guildpact and then Ravnica: City of Guilds, showing the 3rd set effect well. The biggest swings in price occur for the scarcer cards, so Breeding Pool is the best overall bet, with Stomping Grounds and Godless Shrine in the second tier, and then Sacred Foundry and Watery Grave pulling up the rear.

All charts courtesy of mtggoldfish.com which presents MTGO prices from supernovabots.com.

The chart for Breeding Pool shows a strong spike during the speculative frenzy that came with the announcement of the Modern format and then a drop followed by a rise and a secondary peak during last year’s Modern season. For this card, the actual playability of it in Modern matters little as the herd behavior of speculators and the scarce supply will inevitably combine to form a new price spike. Keep your eye on this card or get in now at the Modern era price floor of 10-11 tix, then sell into the market at or near the start of the PTQ season when prices will have risen.

 

Stomping Ground and Godless Shrine both have similar charts as compared to Breeding Pool, but with less pronounced peaks and lower price floors as one would expect from more plentiful rares. These cards appear in more decks than Breeding Pool, but not in great numbers. Stomping Ground is usually a one or a two of in Jund and Zoo decks, and Godless Shrine makes the occasional appearance in token strategies and Doran decks. Nevertheless, expect price increases to happen for both come November and December.

However, their current high prices of 10-11 tix indicate that upside is limited. Godless Shrine peaked at a little over 13 tix mid season and Stomping Ground peaked at 15 tix. Timing will be crucial to make a small profit on these, but if interest in Modern expands or the metagame shifts to favor these cards, then a higher price ceiling is possible. If prices soften in the Fall (as usually occurs during October release events), then keep your eyes out for prices in the 8 to 9 tix range. At that price, the risk reward ratio is more favorable and both would be a good buy.

 

As for the two other guilds appearing in Gatecrash, Dimir and Boros, their respective Shocklands represent riskier bets, so avoid these despite their lower absolute prices. The risk comes from the high amount of supply of Sacred Foundry and Watery Grave in the market, so price moves will be muted in comparison to Breeding Pool, Stomping Ground and Godless Shrine. If you had caught them at their Spring low, then you could have held for a small profit with little risk, but at this point they have risen in price such that the risk outweighs the potential gains.

Again, if prices soften, be prepared to buy. Both represent good value at 5 tix.

Hold the Phone

The one big caveat to this strategy is the instance that the Shocklands, in fact, do not return, or they return all at once in RtR.

The second possibility is doubtful as WoTC should rightly seek to spread out some of their most popular rares among the block as opposed to frontloading all the Shocklands in the Fall expansion. The first possibility, that Shocklands do not return, is not aligned with their goal of making Modern an accessible eternal format. By reprinting Shocklands, they will bring down the average cost of Modern decks.

Also, as Corbin has hinted at in his ‘Digging Up the Plants’ article, M13 being full of cards such as Farseek (over Rampant Growth) and Arbor Elf (over Llanowar Elves) point to the return of dual lands with the basic land type, i.e. Shocklands.

If you are a dabbler in speculating on MTGO and looking to get your feet wet with a couple of tix, go with Gavony Township and Moorland Haunt.

For those with a few more tix, add in Woodland Cemetary and Sulfur Falls but don't over pay for these! Watch the prices, look at historical charts and try to time your purchases to coincide with lows in the market.

And for those who want to try their hand at pricier positions, go with Breeding Pool. These are the surest bets presented here, and good opportunities overall looking out to Fall Standard and the Modern PTQ season.

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