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Hello and welcome back to another week of High Stakes MTGO!
Times are definitively rough for speculators, and for my portfolio more specifically. The changes announced two weeks ago, mainly affecting Modern at this time, combined with the usual price depreciation observed during the release of a new set, are putting my bankroll and overall speculative decisions to the test.
As judged by the Modern Staples price index, format prices have collectively dropped by about 15%. Depending on what's in your portfolio, you may have even lost more than that. Some prices are stabilizing, but different cards have completely different price trajectories.
Looking at the Treasure Chest curated card list, some cards are still losing value, such as Cavern of Souls, Horizon Canopy and Blood Moon. Others, such as Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf and Creeping Tar Pit, seem to have stabilized. A third category of staples, including Inkmoth Nexus, Twilight Mire and Kataki, War's Wage, have already markedly rebounded or appear not to have reacted at all to the announcement.
More Modern flashback drafts are to come after Kaladesh (KLD) release events; Innistrad block is next. If a week of triple Avacyn Restored was not just a month away, I would be very tempted to grab a few copies of Cavern of Souls. This land is such a pillar in Modern and Legacy and certainly doesn't deserve the abrupt drop of roughly 50% that just happened in the past two weeks.
In all this chaos, Standard may be where the salvation begins. With the emergence of a new Standard environment prices are also shaping up. Many cards saw a temporary dip last week as the KLD prerelease events fired, but almost everything is now rebounding. Will we finally see Battle for Zendikar singles and full sets go up? Will Crush of Tentacles be more expensive than Chandra, Flamecaller by the end of this week?
With all this turmoil, my most recent decisions have been to cut down losses and salvage what I can from losing positions. As bad as things might be, this period of the year is still big in buying opportunities, in Standard especially—I want to have more cash available as Pro Tour Kaladesh lines up.
Let's review my moves this past week. The live portfolio is still here.
Buys This Week
Two more Eldritch Moon (EMN) full sets purchased this past week. With the fresh tix generated from my sales, I'm likely to add a few more playsets again this week—hopefully right in time for a general price hike in the wake of Pro Tour Kaladesh.
My most recent full-set specs were rather under-performing to say the least, and I'll try to be more conservative about expectations this time around. Several EMN rares and mythics have the potential to explode, but isn't that the case with about every set? Overall I'm targeting a price in the 110 to 120 tix range.
I reloaded on 46 more copies at an average price of 2.08 tix. Not the best price since Spell Queller hit 1.5 tix at the end of this past week, but its price has already rebounded to 2.5 tix. Currently, this Spirit seems to have better prospects in Modern than in Standard. I hope this changes soon to push Spell Queller closer to 4 tix, which would be a decent selling price for me.
Two of the many Modern cards that took a hit right after the announcement of the Treasure Chest curated list. I thought my stocks with these guys could easily support more copies, and I'm still convinced that the impact of the Treasure Chests is exaggerated. I guess we'll see in few months if doubling down with these two cards was a good idea or not.
Less than a month ago, New Phyrexia was the most expensive set on MTGO. Then in the same week the set got flashback-drafted and the Treasure Chests were announced.
Torpor Orb and Phyrexian Metamorph are no Modern superstars but have shown great potential in the past, and I like them for this exact reason. Since they are not the usual Modern contenders, I would expect their current bottom to be fairly solid, while they could triple or quadruple if they become popular again.
Spellskite is definitely of another caliber. This artifact creature is played in many different decks in Modern and I'm expecting a rebound, although a moderate one, rapidly.
Sales This Week
I bought this card following Time Spiral flashback drafts. The Rack probably got a little boost recently with Tom Ross piloting 8-Rack to a seventh-place finish at the SCG Orlando Modern Open last month. A 40% profit is not something I'm going to neglect in this time of skinny cows, especially since I have a few new targets in mind at the moment.
Khans of Tarkir (KTK) is simply not redeemable anymore. That doesn't help my KTK full-set spec, which already wasn't doing any wonders. With virtually nothing to expect from these in any foreseeable future I would rather take the loss and reinvest the tix now.
I still own a lot of fetchlands and haven't sold them yet. I'm hoping they can do better than the set as a whole. The only positive thing here is that a handful of Modern-playable cards, including Anafenza, the Foremost, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, the fetchlands, and Siege Rhino, will hit their absolute bottom soon.
Not all hope is lost for Battle for Zendikar sets as few mythics and several rares are rebounding a bit at this time. Nevertheless, I decided to let a few sets go to free up some tix before Pro Tour Kaladesh. Will we be able to break even with BFZ full sets? I'm not even counting on that, to be honest.
On My Radar
Does it surprise you to hear that Pro Tour Kaladesh is the one thing I'll be paying attention to this weekend? More precisely, I'll try to take full advantage of the Pro Tour hype by selling winning positions and attempting some quickflips.
Once again, paying attention to underdogs and cards not well covered at the Pro Tour could lead to interesting buying opportunities. During Pro Tour EMN, Pedro Carvalho piloted a U/R Thermo-Alchemist deck to a strong finish in Standard, notably causing Goldnight Castigator to jump from 0.8 tix to 4 tix in about a week. What will be the next Castigator? Or why not Castigator itself, since this Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) mythic is again under 1 ticket these days?
Although they won't necessarily rise next week exactly, I'll be watching the evolution of my EMN full sets. Oath of the Gatewatch full sets rose fairly quickly right after Pro Tour SOI and the bulk of the price hike happened in less than a month.
Thank you for reading,
Sylvain
























There are two ways to build GRx Moon. The first involves fast-mana effects like Desperate Ritual and Simian Spirit Guide. This build is more explosive than dork versions, but less consistent and limited to a lower curve. The main attractions to playing rituals include not ceding too many points to Lightning Bolt (which is really good at killing Noble Hierarch) and gaining the ability to run Chalice of the Void.
The last case is admittedly fringe, but the turn two Boom // Busts are often crippling for opponents. Even if we have to shoot a shock land, many opponents will use their next land or two to fetch up more shocks anyway, since they need their colors badly to have wanted to lead with a shock in the first place.
Enter Cathartic Reunion, a card leagues more efficient than Tormenting Voice that might remedy this issue. Reunion's main benefit is that it doesn't put us down a card unlike Faithless Looting, making it significantly better against decks with targeted discard. Those decks could tear our hand apart after we -1 ourselves to set up on the first turn. With Reunion, they have a much harder time. Granted, Reunion is much worse against countermagic. But I don't think that's a significant issue. As long as we prioritize resolving Reunions and are careful not to walk them into a Remand, this drawback is mitigated.
The obvious draw to dorks over rituals is that the mana actually sticks around, allowing us to play more high-curve spells.
I'm not finished experimenting with GRx Moon---I've got a third build in the works with Goblin Rabblemaster and Ghor-Clan Rampager. But these two builds have been testing well for me this week.










If there isn't one, start your own and after you start inviting people you will begin to grow the playerbase you can offer cards to.
If you're looking to sell a specific card you can ask anyone behind the booth how much they're paying for the card this weekend. Prices are likely to change as the weekend goes on. Your best bet is to sell on Fridays and buy on Sundays---vendors start with the most money Friday and want to bring the fewest cards home on Sunday.
That being said, three copies of Blossoming Defense is without a doubt an exciting new addition to the archetype that should have some experienced Infect players doing a double-take. +2/+2 and hexproof for one green is slightly better than half of a Vines of Vastwood for half the mana, but in reality the difference between one and two mana is more than one, especially in a strategy like Infect. Mana considerations aside, Blossoming Defense is a solid upgrade to Apostle's Blessing, as we definitely would like access to a pump more than we want the ability to Falter a blocker. Especially post-board, when we’ll have non-pump interaction like Nature's Claim and Spell Pierce in our hand, the ability to protect our guy while still pumping for the win is huge.
This decklist characteristic, coupled with Brad Carpenter’s strong performance, suggests to me that he was correct in assuming a field reliant on cheap removal to deal with opposing threats. This can be a fallacy, however, as it’s entirely possible that Brad faced a field that went entirely the other way, eschewing removal completely to instead push the velocity of their individual strategies to the max. For the answer to that question, we’ll have to look closely at the makeup of other lists as we move down the line.
I’ve been dismissive of RG Breach in the past, but with midrange and control operating at a level significantly lower than what they have been in the past, a midrange/combo strategy of our own that beats up on aggressive decks is starting to look really appealing!
Besides Flames of the Blood Hand, the biggest thing about this list is what it’s not playing, namely Wild Nacatl and Atarka's Command. By staying relatively mono-color (with white cards in the sideboard) Arya can streamline his manabase. That gives him extra points in aggressive pseudo-mirrors and buys him that pivotal turn to win races.
Against the slower decks in the format (should we face them) Painful Truths is a great card to keep up with opposing card advantage, and our identity as the aggressor in those matchups should ensure that the life loss isn’t too awkward for us. All of this is relatively known information at this point, and this Grixis list doesn’t stray too far from the norm with any of its choices. This is fine, though. Grixis Delver does well when the format lines up correctly for it. It isn’t an archetype that is known for being “malleable” and while the numbers can vary significantly from list to list, in a broad sense most things stay relatively the same. Around 15 threats, at least 24 spells, a fair mix of card draw, removal, and permission.




