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Non-Eldrazi Takeaways from SCG Louisville

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I'm not going to sugarcoat it: the StarCityGames Louisville Classic was a total nightmare. Not the nightmare where Wizards doesn't reprint Damnation in Eternal Masters, or where Jeff Hoogland doesn't drop his turn one Birds of Paradise (which, to my horror, I witnessed this weekend!). This was the kind of twisted, tentically nightmare normally reserved for H.P. Lovecraft or certain Japanese genres. SCG Louisville saw a Day 2 that was 48% Eldrazi and a Top 8 that was 50% Eldrazi. Decks 9-16 were seven-for-eight on Eldrazi variants, and the overall Top 32 saw 20 Eldrazi representatives. Add this on top of the dismal Pro Tour metagame, the laughable MTGO and paper statistics I showcased last week, and every single Top 8 player at Louisville supporting at least a Temple ban, and all signs point to brokenness. Hideous, eldritch brokenness. I'm going to wrestle with these ghastly numbers on Wednesday, but today we all need a Thopter's eye breather from the Eldrazi blight.

Pia and Kiran Nalaar art

Even if it felt that way on coverage (plus Twitter, Reddit, forums, and basically all discussion surrounding the event), SCG Louisville wasn't all Eldrazi all the time. In the 10% of the time the colorless monsters weren't ravaging the format and feature match area, we saw a number of interesting cards, synergies, and strategies which the Eldrazi are likely to overshadow. Assuming the format's current imbalance isn't internally corrected, a possibility as vague as a John Kasich comeback in the Republican Primaries, many of Louisville's best interactions will live on past April bans. Today, we're going to focus on a few of those non-Eldrazi moments and highlights at SCG Louisville and how those might benefit Modern in an Eldraziless future.

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1. Pia and Kiran Nalaar are Rockstars

When asked about the weekend's most-valuable-creatures, many players would surely point to Eldrazi Mimic, Reality Smasher, and Eldrazi Displacer. Or maybe Eldrazi Scion tokens. These cards, although interesting (in a captivating, watching-the-Republican-primary sort of way), are unlikely to remain as strong Pia and Kiran Nalaaror relevant in April. The same cannot be said of Modern's rising celebrity couple and their 1/1 flying sidekicks: Pia and Kiran Nalaar. From the moment we first saw Hoogland's Kiki Chord on camera, the Nalaars proved their versatility and power all weekend long. The Eldrazi will come and go, but Pia and Kiran will stay eternal in Modern, and I expect we are going to keep seeing more of them as players realize just how indispensable they are for many strategies.

We've talked about Pia and Kiran on this site before, primarily citing their power in midrange matchups: Lingering Souls and Shockesque reach goes a long way in a grindfest. SCG Louisville added another feather for Kiran to stick above his Comic-Con worthy goggles. Affinity, Modern's best aggro deck, gets a major edge in its airforce, which fly over Tarmogoyf and Tasigur, the Golden Fang, as well as control roadblocks such as Wall of Omens and Kitchen Finks. Thopters were made to dismantle enemy (Bl)Inkmoths and Vault Skirges, chump or outright kill Etched Champion, and Fog out Master of Etherium for two combat phases. We saw this in action in a Louisville Day 2 round, where the Nalaars earned Hoogland a game (and almost stole another) against the tournament's eventual winner, Austin Holcomb.

Veteran Jund and Grixis mages have been using Pia and Kiran Nalaar for a while now, so they might have already enjoyed her anti-Affinity applications. For any of you who still aren't running the Artificers in your red deck, it's time to reconsider. This dual relevance against preeminent aggro deck Affinity, on top of her strengths in the midrange grind, should cement her status as a red-deck staple. If you aren't playing her now or after April, you better have an excellent reason.

Looking to Louisville, we see the Nalaars in all four of the four (non-Eldrazi) red decks that made Top 32. Dylan Jones ran one in his 21st place Jund list, capitalizing on the BatterskullKolaghan's Command recursion synergy and playing into Jund's natural reach with Command and Lightning Bolt. Down at 24th, we saw Benjamin Nikolich jam a Pia and Kiran pair in Blue Moon. Batterskull loves to equip to flying Thopters as a 5/5 lifelinking clock, or tailored onto the Nalaars themselves for a 6/6 roadblock: their Shocks even gain you life with the Batterskull suit! Of course, you can also pitch the living weapon itself in a pinch, giving as much as six extra points of reach to a deck already heavy on Bolt, Electrolyze, Burst Lightning, and Snapcaster Mage. Finally, Gabriel Hatcher used a singleton legend in his Skred Red deck at 27th. There, they duo has no synergies whatsoever (short of chucking spare Coldsteel Hearts in the lategame), which just further underscores the Nalaar's importance in all red decks.

Of course, Pia's and Kiran's resume would be incomplete without their obvious and gamebreaking synergies in Hoogland's Kiki Chord. From a Restoration Angelsingle-deck perspective, I expect we'll see many more players adopt and (attempt to) harness Hoogland's masterpiece. Pia and Kiran Nalaar are central to his deck's power, whether with Eternal Witness, Voice of Resurgence Elementals, or the devastating Restoration Angel. From a format-wide perspective, this Restoration Angel pairing promises to be Modern-defining once Jeskai and WRx strategies are back on the post-Eldrazi map. This might also take the form of Flickerwisp strategies (WR Death and Taxes, anyone?), or Ghostway upgrades using Shadows Over Innistrad's new Eerie Interlude. Whatever particular decks they find home, Pia and Kiran Nalaar are sure to be integral Modern players for much of the year. Their role against midrange, aggro, or control, and their incredible synergies with other powerful cards, make them an invaluable 1-2 inclusion in any deck packing red, and you'd be wise to join their fan group now or when the Eldrazi go packing in April.

2. Remember Transformational Sideboards

As Darwin Kastle famously opined, if you're asking about building a transformational sideboard, the answer is often "no." This approach trades Fulminator Mageconventional sideboard slots for a package of cards to change or augment your deck's main strategy. Unfortunately, it often runs the risk of diluting your sideboard of meaningful answers, and/or crippling your maindeck's ability to execute its primary plan. Modern typically follows the 1-2 bullet method of sideboarding, where you cram your 15 full of diverse answers that would make singleton lover Frank Karsten proud. Alternately, Modern players dive headlong into the 3-4 card commitment to bad matchups: Leyline of Sanctity in Bogles, Hurkyl's Recall in Merfolk, Fulminator Mage in BGx, etc. Modern has also seen a few more successful transformational approaches. Amulet Bloom was a major example of this, transitioning from Hive Mind and Primeval Titan combo to Hornet Queen and Thragtusk over-the-top ramp. URx Twin was also famous at this game, ditching enough combo elements to play control or tempo, but keeping enough in to threaten a kill.

SCG Louisville saw the next evolution of this transformational sideboard in a deck that, at first glance, feels like one of the worst candidates for transformation: trusty old Affinity becoming wacky new Lantern Control.

Ghirapur Aether GridIn what will surely go down as one of the most under-appreciated, nuanced, and brilliant deckbuilding decisions in recent Modern history, Austin Holcomb added a pair of oddball artifacts to the Affinity sideboard. The rest of his 15 were all Affinity regulars such as Ancient Grudge for the mirror, Whipflare for Company decks and those evil Spirit and Thopter tokens, and Ghirapur Aether Grid to circumvent the nasty and inevitable Stony Silences. Holcomb rounded out the board with two Ensnaring Bridges, a metagame call against massive Eldrazi, and a natural combo with Aether Grid. Zac Elsik and Sam Black would be proud to see one of their favorite synergies winning SCG Louisville, even if it did so as part of a dirty aggro deck and not a pure prison one. Moderners as a whole have a lot to learn from this bold innovation, especially in a field where minute advantages can win tournaments, let alone individual matches.

Ensnaring BridgeI don't expect we'll see Affinity playing a lot of Bridges and Grids in the future, especially if Eldrazi eat the April ban. It's such a narrow metagame call against such a tiny band of decks that it wouldn't pay off in most Modern fields. 50% Eldrazi, however, is hardly "most Modern fields," so Holcomb's gamble paid off big at SCG Louisville. The specific pairing isn't what's important, even if I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the Affinity toolbox in the future. Rather, it's the concept of building on an existing sideboard card (e.g. Ghirapur Aether Grid) to create a powerful micro-synergy that also fundamentally transforms its host deck.

This minimalist approach to transformational sideboarding has always existed, but I expect (and encourage) players to have newfound appreciation for the method after SCG Louisville. It works particularly well at a local level, where you can predict matchups better Kiki Jikithan at a Grand Prix, or at a larger level when you can count on certain strategies showing up in large quantities. One place we've already seen this is with Grishoalbrand (and other Simian Spirit Guide decks) and Blood Moon. Jordan and I are huge Moon fans, and the threat of going turn two Moon after sideboarding adds an entirely new dimension to your threat portfolio. Colorless Eldrazi adopted a similar approach with Chalice of the Void at X=1, another synergy I expect to survive the next few months. Another idea is to run Restoration Angel copies in the maindeck with no Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breakers in sight, and then to board in a pair for Games 2-3. Many players will justifiably ditch some spot removal against a plodding Jeskai control list, and Kiki-Jiki plus Angel punishes them for this.

In all these cases, the key is to not commit too many slots to the transformation, and to ensure at least part of the transformation is something you'd already be doing (e.g. Grid in Affinity, Guide in Grishoalbrand, Angel in Jeskai decks, etc.). Because this approach lends itself so well to combos, look for both win conditions like Kiki-Jiki, but also soft locks like Moon, Bridge, and Chalice. These gamebreaking plays can rob opponents who come unprepared while not costing too many valuable sideboard slots on your end.

3. Don't Metagame at the Core's Expense

Jeff Hoogland plays a lot of Kiki Chord. This gives us a curious point of comparison to see how heavily he modifies his core list between events. For reference, we'll be looking at Hoogland's build from the pre-Eldrazi SCG Open in Charlotte, and his recent 5th place list from SCG Louisville. As veteran deckbuilders already know, and as Hoogland's lists illustrate, even in the most hideously warped metagames you will still maintain most of your deck's core. Heed this example and don't metagame or change things too heavily!

Ignoring sideboards, which obviously change from event to event and field to field, Hoogland's lists were remarkably consistent. A full 29 of his spells were identical in both name Chord of Callingand number between the two decks. Another seven overlapped between the two lists, but with slightly different ratios. This consisted of one Wall of Roots at Charlotte versus three at Louisville, down one Scavenging Ooze from two, and down to three Voices from four. His manabase had a 100% overlap between events, with only three extra cards making up the difference between those decks: -1 Fulminator Mage, +1 Lone Missionary, Obstinate Baloth, and Big Game Hunter. The two metagame contexts of those events couldn't have been any more different (one was 3% Eldrazi and 12% Twin, the other 48% Eldrazi and 0% Twin), and Hoogland would have known this before the event. His maindeck consistency is a testament to the importance of sticking to your powerful core, not to mention staying on a strategy you know, without diluting your gameplan with too many metagamed solutions.

Our keen-minded readership will rightly point out that Hoogland's toolbox deck lends itself towards minimalist changes from event to event. Dark Confidant MM2015With Chord in the picture, Hoogland can afford to run only three new cards in a metagame crushed by almost 50% Eldrazi. Do other decks fit this mold? SCG Louisville offers us another illustrative tale in Dylan Jones, who played Jund this weekend and also played Jund to a 4th place finish at an August 2015 Invitational Qualifier in Evansville, Indiana. Again, as with Hoogland's Kiki Chord, Jones' metagame context couldn't have been more different. Also as with Hoogland's two decks, Jones had significant overlap between his cards. A full 32 of Jones' cards were the same between two lists, despite their six month separation. The manabases were off by only a single fetchland swap, with only the Nalaars (go Nalaars!), Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, and Seal of Fire taking up new deck stock over the old Huntmaster of the Fells, Olivia Voldaren, and an extra Command.

In both cases, Hoogland and Jones went into disgustingly warped fields, knowing full well what they would be up against. Both of them shifted the majority of their anti-Eldrazi preparations to the sideboard and not the maindeck, preserving 90%-95% of their deck's core despite the dramatically altered field. This is a strong endorsement of sticking to your guns in Modern, an old adage which many know but fewer follow. It's tempting to try out-metagaming the metagamers, deviating from your central gameplan to pick up an edge. The Hoogland and Jones case are two SCG Louisville case studies that point away from this mentality. We'll ignore the fact that everyone else adjusted to Eldrazi by playing a different species of Eldrazi, because we're looking for immortal Modern takeaways, not symptoms of a broken metagame.

Lightning BoltI know some of you will point to economics, card prices, and card availability as major factors in these overlapping decklists. Although this is certainly a factor for some players, it is unlikely to be at play in these two examples. Hoogland has access to many more cards than just those shown in his lists, and surely could have made larger adjustments if he wanted to. As for Jones, with six months between events, Jones had ample time to order up some tech online to upgrade his deck. Both players chose not to, which speaks more to the power of their core than the volume of their wallets. We also see this notion of a "deck core" all the time in nonrotating formats, and SCG Louisville is just the latest datapoint to support this broader observation. Keep this in mind as you leave the weekend. Ditching Lightning Bolt to metagame against Eldrazi might seem smart at the time, but there's a reason the Jund core is the Jund core and you don't want to stray from it too much.

From SCG Louisville to Grand Prix Weekend

We'll have three Grand Prix events in just under two weeks, which should settle the Eldrazi's fate once and for all (that is, if it isn't already settled). Modern is in a warped Stasis holding pattern until then, with everything defined by Eldrazi but no one investing too heavily in it for fear, or hope, of a possible ban in April. This puts Modern content producers like myself in the strange position where we need to acknowledge the severity of the issue but still write more than a Twitter post to Aaron Forsythe pleading for action. Hopefully, today's article gave us something to look forward to beyond the Eldrazi nightmare, while still setting the stage by admitting their overall dominance.

Let me know in the comments what else you'd like to see in the coming weeks, especially because I'm as tired writing about Eldrazi as players are encountering them (and, probably, you are tired hearing about them too). Until then, gather up your Pia and Kiran Nalaars, refine your transformational sideboards, and don't stray too far from your deck cores. We'll get through this together and I'll talk with you all soon!

Insider: Building Eldrazi After a Possible April Ban

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In case you still thought Eldrazi wasn't a format-warping deck, Star City Games' Louisville Open added another damning datapoint to the picture. 48% of Louisville's Day 2 metagame rocked some kind of Eldrazi deck, representing the core of Eldrazi Temple and Eye of Ugin, along with playsets of 4-5 other cards.

This is on top of the Eldrazified Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch field, and the overall metagame which creeps closer and closer to 25% Eldrazi.

Modern's ability to self-regulate the Eldrazi invasion is looking increasingly unlikely. An April intervention, however, appears more probable by the day.

The Invading Eldrazi Core

I don't see Wizards making an emergency ban before the March Grand Prix weekend. Nor should they! Early action sets a dangerous format-wide precedent for future bans, and runs the risk of Wizards banning the wrong card for lack of data. That said, an April ban feels inevitable with the current numbers, which are the worst I've seen since Modern started in 2011.

Hope you sold out while you can, as I advised last week---prices are already dropping in response to the feelings of ban inevitability.

Assuming the metagame situation does not improve, and assuming Wizards acts to correct it in April, many players will likely wonder about Eldrazi's future after a possible banning. Eldrazi pilots will want to know if their deck is still viable if something gets axed. Hardened Eldrazi foes will want to know if they still need those maindeck Spreading Seas or sideboarded Worships. As for investors, they'll want to get ahead of Magic-market shifts precipitated by a ban.

In today's article, I'll discuss three ban possibilities and how those would affect Eldrazi decks. Our colorless overlords are likely to survive most of the realistic ban scenarios, and today I'll explore some cards and synergies that could enable the Eldrazi deck to survive April.

Ban Options and Rationale

I'm hoping Wizards uses the next few months to amass MTGO data and conduct some intensive analysis of different variables: which cards show up in which matches, the turn those cards hit play, when games end, matchups, the number of offensive cards, etc. I'd love to be part of this kind of format evaluation, and I'm optimistic Wizards will take a similar approach in deciding what Eldrazi card needs to go.

Most players point to Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple as the biggest problems in the Eldrazi core. Fast mana is infamous for causing problems in Modern, and it's easy to see parallels between Cloudpost and the Eldrazi duo. Urza lands have also been criticized under similar premises, but Tron decks never even cracked 10% of the format, let alone the obscene shares we're seeing in Eldrazi.

Banned Fast Mana in Modern

Given the historical treatment of such fast-mana staples, and the contextual power of the Eldrazi lands in their current decks, I believe Eye and Temple are the likeliest bans we might see in April.

There are strong arguments for banning either card in the next update. Both could even find themselves in Wizards' crosshairs. In essence, Eye leads to the most dramatic starts (the fabled double Eldrazi Mimic and/or Endless One) and the deck's inevitability. By contrast, Temple brings more gradual mana development, but is non-legendary and opens up the turn three Reality Smasher and Thought-Knot Seer lines.

Eye was relatively fair in other decks before Eldrazi came around. Temple was never used and is now part of a broken deck. That said, Temple better fits the "turn four rule" pace of Modern. Eye, especially paired with Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, is much more explosive and unpredictably powerful.

I'll need to do more testing and data collection to point to the primary offender here (it might be both!). Instead of figuring out what will be banned, I'll focus instead on how Eldrazi survive after that ban.

Surviving an Eye of Ugin Ban

Between its inevitability, its early game explosiveness (heightened by Urborg and Simian Spirit Guide), and its cost reduction effect (as opposed to Temple's flat ramp), Eye strikes me as a slightly more likely ban target than Temple in the possible April announcement. Eldrazi become unquestionably worse without Eye, but they would still be playable: good news for Eldrazi pilots and bad news for those that never want to see a Reality Smasher again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eye of Ugin

Losing Eye of Ugin makes Eldrazi less of a burst-damage, Affinity-style beatdown deck. By the same token, it also undercuts Eldrazi's chances to win a long game on a stalled board. This shifts Eldrazi back to a more midrange or mid-game Stompy deck, which would be overall safer for Modern than the current builds we see.

Without Eye, Eldrazi immediately free up their four slots on the legendary land, as well as their Urborg slots---losing the virtual Mishra's Workshop synergy renders Urborg relatively useless. This probably pushes Eldrazi to find fast-mana replacements, the most obvious and interesting of which is Vesuva.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuva

Paired with an active Eldrazi Temple, Vesuva powers you up your curve, even if you have to wait a turn to cash in. Some Eldrazi pilots are skeptical about Vesuva's relevance in their speedy deck, but I've tested some preliminary lists and the play-lines are still decent, even if rarer. Turn one Temple into Dismember or Mimic, followed by turn two Vesuva, leading into turn three Reality Smasher or Thought-Knot Seer. Your turn two is a bit of a deadzone on this progression, but you're getting enough power on the board for it not to matter against many fair decks.

Vesuva loses out big against the aggressive strategies, where you can effectively squander a turn building up to a bigger play. Affinity, Burn, Infect, and even Merfolk will punish you for this---a Spreading Seas dropped on your tapped Vesuva really stings. Losing Eye means you also lose your fastest Mimic lines to race them. Despite such weaknesses, the deck would still be viable as a powerful anti-midrange option, even if it falls to aggro.

Another fast-mana option, which is more likely to be paired with Vesuva than to preclude it, is trusty Simian Spirit Guide.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Simian Spirit Guide

Between Guide and Vesuva, you are often one turn ahead of your organic mana development. It could be two turns as well, if you effectively bank a land drop on a tapped Vesuva to get there after you untap. Guide also moves Eldrazi back to the Chalice of the Void strategies, improving its aggro matchup. You're also solidifying the midrange matchup with a reliable turn three Seer or a turn two Matter Reshaper.

Abzan Company, U/W Control, Kiki Chord and Affinity are much more effective against these Eyeless builds than Eldrazi is accustomed to, which would help ensure the deck stays viable while not also warping the format.

The big investment takeaway here is Vesuva, but also Eldrazi that are falling out of fashion such as Matter Reshaper. Similarly, Urborg's value tanks after an Eye banning, and Chalice/Guide are likely to keep rising once Eldrazi move back to this pairing.

Surviving an Eldrazi Temple Ban

Perhaps Wizards looks at Eye and determines the legendary type and Tron collateral damage make it an inappropriate ban. If so, Eldrazi Temple would take the ban as the remaining offender in Eldrazi. This banning approach preserves Eldrazi's most explosive starts but makes the deck deeply dependent on combos in Eye, Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, and Simian Spirit Guide.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldrazi Temple

Amusingly, the Eye ban doesn't disproportionately benefit Eldrazi Temple itself. The card was a Modern Masters uncommon, which puts a ceiling on how high it can realistically go. A Temple ban, however, has the opposite effect on Eye. Eye is already in the $40 range despite the terror of an impending ban. If Eye can survive April, the sky is the limit on this card, which only enjoys a few printings: mythic in Worldwake, rare in Modern Masters, and an Expedition in Oath.

Assuming you either own the Eyes already, or buy them immediately following the ban update, you'll need to round out your Eldrazi shell with Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, which becomes an immediate three- or even four-of to improve your Eye/Urborg odds in the first two turns.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

I admit it's odd to run so many copies of legendary lands, but this is just a testament to the importance of that one-two punch of Eye into Urborg in a no-Temple build. The no-Temple Eldrazi lists have no choice but to commit to early lines---the more explosive, the better. Eye's legendary status prevents you from reaching Temple's cumulative mana advantage, which means you're dedicated to decks like the Pro Tour's colorless builds rather than the blue-red, blue-white, red-green, or other anti-Eldrazi pairings which emerged later.

Unsurprisingly, Simian Spirit Guide would also be a formative player alongside Eye and Urborg. Like the so-called Mishra's Workshop combo, Guide facilitates these early blitz plays, including the vaunted turn three Reality Smasher and even a turn two Smasher with Urborg/Eye already on the table.

Temple's banning might also move Eldrazi players to an Urzatron setup, which some have lauded as a strict upgrade to the old R/G Tron strategies, a fixture of Modern for much of 2015.

Eldrazitron

This configuration would probably also use Urborg (why not use the combo start if you can fit it in?), making it a mashup between Tron's ramp plan, featuring heavy-hitters like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, and Colorless Eldrazi's lightning-fast openers.

Financially speaking, Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth is the huge winner here, a relatively low-print card which has already seen big spikes following Eldrazi's rise. Guide remains another good investment, even if I've seen some fairly compelling arguments for the banning of Modern's Lotus Petal, as do Urza staples (All Is Dust comes to mind).

Surviving a Dual Eye/Temple Ban

The dual ban, although not terribly likely, would be decidedly fatal for Eldrazi as we know it. There is no current Eldrazi strategy which survives without at least one of its critical lands. Some may point to this finality as reason for Wizards to make a ban in this approach, citing the artifact lands as a possible precedent.

It's not an impossible scenario, but I doubt Wizards wants to kill the archetype entirely. Eldrazi have the chance to be a fair contributor to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 world, not just a Tier 0 behemoth.

If both lands walked to the banlist gallows, Eldrazi as a deck would die, but the Eldrazi as Modern contributors would live on for years to come.

Relevant Eldrazi in Post-Ban Modern

Looking exclusively at the Eldrazi above, we see at least four Eldrazi which are likely to find homes after the invasion ends. The biggest one here is by far Thought-Knot Seer, a monstrous Vendilion Clique which tangles favorably with Zoo and Burn's ground forces and picks midrange and combo hands apart. It's Lightning Bolt-proof, Abrupt Decay-proof, and presents a scary clock against opponents who can't stall it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought-Knot Seer

I expect we see plenty of Seer even after a possible double ban. It's the rare card combining a clock and disruption, all at a cheap price and with innate removal resilience.

The other Eldrazi aren't quite as commanding as Seer, but are still likely to remain relevant after the Eldrazi storm. Matter Reshaper is an anti-midrange and -control Kitchen Finks that makes removal parity unattainable. Decks like Abzan Company, Death and Taxes, and Hatebears are almost guaranteed to get value off the Reshaper, turning all removal exhanges into one-for-twos. Burn and Zoo strategies also struggle to attack into the Reshaper.

Smasher is even hardier than the little Reshaper, shrugging off even Galvanic Blast and turning even "true" removal like Path into unfavorable exchanges.

Not all the Eldrazi are as fortunate as Smasher, Seer, and others. Endless One and Eldrazi Mimic are likely to get significantly worse without Eye and Temple to back them up, although it's possible some under-the-radar synergies keep them viable (Phyrexian Dreadnought in Legacy is particularly exciting with Mimic).

Remember to keep your minds open to other Eldrazi possibilities and you'll surely find home for your eldritch expatriates after the possible April ban. Don't just sell them off in a panic!

Surviving Until April?

Bans or no bans, the Eldrazi are beatable. Jeff Hoogland manhandled numerous Eldrazi opponents en route to his Louisville Top 8, and we saw Abzan Company, Merfolk, and even U/W Control enjoy success in this field over the past few weeks.

Unfortunately, these "adaptations" remind me too much of the anti-Deliver evolutions we saw during Treasure Cruise's time in Modern, or the maindecked Molder Slugs of the 2004 Affinity era. The format is still warped heavily towards Eldrazi, both in metagaming against the deck and in the deck's raw shares. All of this bodes ill for the March Grand Prix weekend.

I do believe the deck is on track for a much-needed April ban, and I also believe the deck and cards can survive bans. A nerfed Eldrazi might be a reasonable contributor to Modern, and I'm hoping we get to see this played out once order is restored to our format.

Until then, keep fighting the good fight, and make smart financial decisions ahead of the possible---plausible? definite?---Eldrazi ban in April. I'll see you all in the comments to answer questions, talk trash about the Eldrazi, and chat about where Modern might go from here!

Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Feb 14th to Feb 20th

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Welcome back to High-Stakes MTGO!

This week has clearly been calmer than the previous one. We are now emerging out of Pro Tour Eldrazi and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) release events. This means I'm expecting several Modern staples I put on the sideline two weeks ago, and all Standard cards, to rebound in the following weeks. With some Legacy in the mix as well, let's see how this is unfolding in my portfolio.

Here is the link to the live Spreadsheet.

Buy This Week

FoW

I missed the first wagon for Force of Will as they quickly picked up from 25 Tix to 33 Tix. The announcement of Eternal Masters (EMA) apparently got people to panic-sell their Forces. I don't think Force is going to be devalued four months before the release of EMA and now that Legacy Leagues have just started. I took advantage of this second opportunity and bought three playsets of the mythic counterspell.

IoK

Inquisition of Kozilek is still a very solid discard card in Modern. Its price has stabilized around 4 tix after Pro Tour OGW. With no reprint in Modern Masters or Modern Masters 2015 the price could spike again to 10 tix if demand cycles up again.

Sales This Week

My current selling price with Caves is 2.5 Tix. This bar was crossed in several instances this past week and I sold another 50 copies of so. Now that OGW release events are over, other Standard prices might accentuate their rebound, including Magic Origins painlands.

Depending on how prices evolve for Caves of Koilos I might be looking for higher selling prices, but I'm very comfortable selling a good chunk of my position at 2.5 Tix.

THS

Redemption of Theros sets has stopped. The price of THS full sets has plunged and there's no reason to wait for anything else here. I sold my copies as soon as I heard the news.

Coldnsap flashback drafts are not too far away and the price of Arcum Dagsson nosedived this past week. I have no reason to hold onto this position at this point. I sold all my copies with a little 13% profit, better than nothing.

On My Radar

We're almost a week in and many Legacy prices have rebounded to where they were in November to December during the Legacy MOCS. The Vintage Masters (VMA) dual lands are getting close to their price at release one and a half years ago.

I'm closely monitoring my Legacy positions and I might sell these very soon. I'll discuss this more in detail below, but I didn't intend to keep my Legacy positions for the long run. With an already decent profit I might simply cash out in a week or two at most.

My portfolio holds several Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged positions, including Warden of the First Tree, Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Dig Through Time. All of these guys are rotating out of Standard in about two months. Now that we are clear of OGW release events there's only a very short window where players may want to buy these before prices crash. I'll be looking to sell my KTK and FRF positions very soon, even at a good loss.

Questions & Answers

Legacy Specs, Reserved List and Eternal Masters

Q

The announcement of Legacy Leagues set up a perfect ground for obvious and profitable specs. Staples all across the Legacy format jumped in price in a few hours and are still on the rise less than a week into Legacy Leagues.

Everything was thought to be an easy ride and then Eternal Masters with its two first official spoilers---Wasteland and Force of Will---was announced. The VMA version of Force spiked from 23 tix to 33 tix in 24 hours only to be back to 25 tix four days later when EMA was announced. Overreaction? Fear? Nonsense? All of the above?

Is EMA a threat to the Legacy targets acquired two weeks ago? And are there profitable positions to be taken regarding cards on the Reserved List? Short answers: no, and no.

To begin with, my perspective on Legacy Leagues-related specs had always been short-term. The announcement of Legacy Leagues created a boom and several cards have already doubled in price, while others may still grow for a few more weeks. Nonetheless the leagues end April 13th and I don't want to wait until April 12th to see how high my Legacy specs can go or if they can only sustain the Legacy Challenge. In summary, I'm most likely to exit my positions very soon, most likely before mid-March.

Force of Will has been spoiled in EMA. Infernal Tutor or Counterbalance might also be in this set, and the tutor has been rumored to be in. However this is mostly irrelevant information at this point for what I'm concerned.

EMA will be released in four months, well beyond my selling point for my Legacy specs, and a reprint in EMA should not really affect your strategy regarding Legacy specs. With already great gains I believe the correct strategy is to sell early rather than waiting for cards to break new record highs they may never see.

By the way, I kind of missed the first boat on Force of Will when Legacy Leagues got announced but the big price drop following the EMA announcement let me buy three playsets of VMA Force at ~25 tix each. They are back to 30 tix as I write this.

Concerning the Reserved List. If this is a sacred institution for paper Magic, there is no such a thing on MTGO. Anything and everything can be printed and reprinted at will in the form of special sets, promos or flashback drafts. Cards from the Reserved List won't be in EMA and dual lands and the like may have a better chance to sustain the price hike they recorded these past two weeks.

However you should not think that's a safe investment in the long run. I will sell my dual lands in March as well. It would be totally possible for WotC to plan a series of flashback drafts including Vintage Masters or any of the Masters sets before or after EMA is released online. Don't be caught by surprise---anything can happen on MTGO.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: QS Cast 23 – Eternal Masters, what’s in and out

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Play

This week, the cast takes a good shot at figuring out the cards that will and won’t be in Eternal Masters. No, there’s no leaked list here, just a trio of vets talking about cards like:

  • Inquisition of Kozilek and other uncommons dropping in value
  • P3K cards: how dangerous it can be to hold these going forward and when to sell.
  • Three Visits

They also talk about when the right time to sell off your endangered cards and whether it ever makes sense to do that and then rebuy them.

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Wise Cracks: Anti-Eldrazi Canaries in GRx Blood Moon

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Sheridan’s Eldrazi checkup article from Wednesday linked to a reddit post about Modern’s “canaries in a coalmine:” cards and strategies whose presence in a format should set off red flags of obvious metagame issues. I also find the idea “fascinating,” but could not believe the inanity of the post’s replies, which suggested Spell Snare, Ensnaring Bridge, and Burn decks in general as “canaries.” The top-rated response considers Blood Moon the ultimate canary, claiming that “Blood Moon is good, but not for every deck.”

Crack-and-Moon-Banner

Blood Moon has always been great in Modern, and is hardly a canary. If Moon’s presence indicates a problem with the metagame, we should all just stop playing Modern, since the format characteristically features greedy manabases. Sea's Claim in Merfolk is more of a canary, since that deck rarely plays more than the set of Spreading Seas. Today’s update to GRx Moon features a much more obvious canary: Crack the Earth. I’m the first to admit that if anyone packs this card, something is wrong.

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All Signs Point to Broken

I consider myself pretty conservative when it comes to ban talk. One of my favorite things about Modern is its ability to self-regulate, in which I staunchly believe. Many other players don't.

Stony SilenceAn example: we can probably agree Affinity is one of the best decks in the format, and without checks like Stony Silence, it would dominate. Some argue Affinity doesn’t eat Modern because so many players pack Stony Silence, bring it in, and luckily see it during their games against Affinity. That means many Modern games come down to luck, and not skill; if players draw Stony Silence, they beat Affinity. If they don’t, they lose. For certain players, this state of affairs makes Modern too luck-based, and subsequently, uninteresting.

As a deckbuilder, the need to jump through sideboarding hoops stimulates me. I like that we need to respect Affinity and pack checks to it. It’s fun for me to weigh the deckbuilding costs of running specific sideboard hate versus tuning the mainboard to deal with an artifact onslaught. So long as the numbers don’t indicate oppression, I’m fine with decks like Affinity existing, and even support their presence.

Kiki JikiEldrazi operates on an unprecedented level of oppression, which the numbers we have so far speak to directly. Trevor’s last article cites a couple of URx interactive strategies (Grixis and Jeskai) that have performed well in this Eldrazi metagame. But his examples seem, to me, insufficient; these decks are hardly putting up any other results in Modern, presumably because they can’t reliably address Eldrazi, or they give up too many points elsewhere in doing so to boast viability. I doubt the issue is players not being aware of these decks, which have existed in Modern for years, and sometimes kept sky-high profiles. Last year, Patrick Chapin championed Grixis Control. Back in 2014, Kiki-Control enjoyed success in the hands of Sean McLaren before more recently being universally considered as a Splinter Twin replacement. Rather, I believe these finishes represent exceptions to Modern's new, colorless state.

Introducing Crack Moon

For all that doomsaying, I don’t think interaction is completely dead in Modern. Trevor might be right and we may very well see URx decks rise to overcome Eldrazi in the next month, but we don’t yet have enough data to indicate that Modern can be saved. In the meantime, GRx Moon appears very well poised in this linear meta. We just need to speed it up. Here’s my first draft of Crack Moon:

Crack Moon, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Magus of the Moon
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Chromatic Star

Enchantments

4 Blood Moon
4 Oath of Nissa

Instants

3 Tarfire
4 Desperate Ritual

Sorceries

2 Faithless Looting
3 Crack the Earth
4 Boom // Bust

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Windswept Heath
2 Stomping Ground
2 Mountain
2 Forest

Sideboard

3 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Forked Bolt
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Shatterstorm
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Crack the Earth
2 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Anger of the Gods

Gut Shot, Speed, and the Fall of the Mana Dork

Lotus CobraThis deck plays differently from my last GRx Moon build, Cobra Moon. That deck used dorks and Lotus Cobra to power out Stormbreath Dragon and Goblin Dark-Dwellers, or to set up high-velocity looting chains with its eight cantrips. Crack Moon sacrifices that top-end goldmine for early land interaction, something Modern doesn't excel at. We become much faster and more early-game oriented as a result, but can tangle with the format boogeyman.

Crack Moon more closely resembles one of my older GRx Moon build. MutaMoon used Guides and Rituals to power out Goblin Rabblemaster or Huntmaster of the Fells, and protected those threats with Mutagenic Growth. With Twin gone, Growth loses value. We're seeing fewer and fewer Lightning Bolts daily. On Valentine's Day, osmanozguney's Jund deck went 6-2 in a PPTQ packing zero copies of the iconic instant, maxing out instead on Seal of Fire, Goyf Food that plays nice with Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet. Jund with no Bolts: how's that for a canary!

Gut ShotBolt's recent vacation might suggest Noble Hierarch and Lotus Cobra still have a place in GRx Moon. Unfortunately, we're also seeing plenty of Gut Shot in Modern. Relying on dorks to speed us up against decks packing Gut Shot is just asking for a beating from Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher. In this case, Simian Spirit Guide provides a more stable source of early mana.

The main draw to Guide - its speed - is also hugely relevant here. To effectively disrupt blazing-fast decks like Eldrazi, sometimes we need to threaten land destruction as early as turn one. Simian combined with Darksteel Citadel and Boom // Bust, or just with Crack the Earth on the draw, gives us this angle of attack.

Naturally, swapping out constant mana sources for temporary ones lowers our curve. We certainlyGoblin Rabblemaster can't play mainboard Stormbreath Dragon anymore. The best threat for the deck is Goblin Rabblemaster, which resists Gut Shot and comes down early (sometimes on the first turn) to go wide around Eldrazi players, who either Dismember the Goblin on the spot or lose. The second best is Tarmogoyf, which gets enormous here thanks to the enablers we need for Crack the Earth - Chromatic Star and Oath of Nissa. Goyf often out-grows Dismember in this deck. As for third and fourth best, I think Huntmaster of the Fells and Stormbreath Dragon belong in the sideboard. With Modern as linear as it is, we rarely encounter removal from the other side of the table - Terminates and Abrupt Decays are in short supply. I'd rather focus on disrupting opponents on the universally damaging axis of mana than on casting more threats than I need to swiftly take them to zero.

Less Intuitive Card Choices

There’s little reason to go over includes like Tarmogoyf and Goblin Rabblemaster at this point, since I’ve explained them in great detail in my other GRx Moon articles. Instead, here’s my defense for the deck’s rarer cards. I also cover some cards we’ve explored for GRx Moon decks before, but only in their specific relation to this build.

crack the earthCrack the Earth: Modern is a format full of good cards. Crack the Earth is not a good card. But bad cards sometimes have their place, and Crack seems very good right now. It’s the only land destruction spell capable of interacting with Eldrazi meaningfully before we land a Blood Moon.

Pre-Eldrazi, we've almost never seen Crack in Modern, barring a Gerry Thompson feature on StarCityGames of Kanaoka Yoshihiko’s Mardu Pox deck. Yoshihiko put me on to the Crack-Chromatic interaction, which Oath of Nissa brings to more reasonable levels of consistency. So does Simian Spirit Guide. On the draw, we can exile Guide for Crack with zero permanents on the battlefield, then play a land and take our turn. Crack also interacts favorably with Goblin Rabblemaster tokens.

Blood MoonIf Crack the Earth plays so badly with Blood Moon, why pair them at all? After all, Yoshihiko didn’t include Moons in his Mardu deck. The reason to play Moon here is that no other card interacts as efficiently with the Eldrazi manabase. A Moon coming down usually ends the game for Eldrazi, barring a couple of factors. The most obvious is the deck’s speed; turn three Blood Moon means nothing if it necessitates tapping down into an established enemy field of Eldrazi Mimic, Endless One, and Reality Smasher. On its own, Blood Moon is way too slow to stop that deck. Crack the Earth buys us the crucial turn or two we need to land Moon in a reasonable time frame, without allowing Eldrazi to first develop its beat squad beyond the defensive scope of a muscly Tarmogoyf.

Crack synergies aside, I don’t think we can afford to run four copies main. Crack the Earth is absolutely abysmal in the mid- to late-game, by which times opponents have ample lands (or something) to throw away. Under Blood Moon, players will happily sacrifice a Mountain. My first take on Crack Moon didn’t include Faithless Looting, but Crack the Earth is so awful on turn six that I had to make space for a couple.

Boom // Bust: We play Boom // Bust over Stone Rain or Molten Rain for the same reason Todd Anderson packed Spreading Seas over Blood Moon in his Temur Delver sideboard: it’s just faster. Running only two colors makes the set of Citadels a painless include, and we can dig for the indestructible land with Oath of Nissa to set up a turn two Boom. In a pinch, losing one of our “real lands” is worth the possibility of locking out Eldrazi with a Moon without allowing them to grow a colorless army.

TarfireTarfire: The tribal Shock kills the small creatures actually played in Modern while generally growing Tarmogoyf two stages. Sheridan pointed to Gruul Zoo’s presence as a Modern canary, and I agree wholeheartedly with his analysis. If that deck breaches Tier 2, and Mana Leak decks don’t, Modern might be due for a visit to the nurse’s office. But hey, there’s Gruul Zoo in Tier 2. And Merfolk, and Naya Company. For its part, Tier 1 brings Burn, Infect, and Abzan Company to the aggro roster. All of these decks hate Tarfire (or Seal of Fire) about as much as they hate Lightning Bolt. Tarfire even kills Eldrazi Mimic!

Chromatic Star: Fixes mana in a pinch, grows Tarmogoyf like a charm, and pitches delightedly to Crack to Earth. More enabler than anything, but sometimes you can’t run horrible cards without running other horrible cards.

Oath of NissaOath of Nissa: It turns out this all-star cantrip needs even less build-around than I thought. Oath only has 32 targets in this deck, but rarely whiffs. It often does what it should: in the early game, it nabs a mana source, and later on, it helps find Tarmogoyf. Oath also joins Chromatic Star as low-maintenance Crack the Earth food.

Faithless Looting: I’ve usually advocated a full set of Lootings in GRx Moon, since they give us enormous consistency and grow Tarmogoyf efficiently. Unfortunately, Modern is a bit too fast for them at the moment. One primary draw to Looting was its ability to give us a long game despite our high density of “dead draws.” Since we can’t count on many long games in this field, I’ve shaved the number to two.

Tier 1 Matchups

Besides Burn, none of Modern’s current Tier 1 decks enjoy playing against Blood Moon. (Even Burn loses Boros Charm and Atarka's Command to the enchantment.) This predicament allows us to heavily skew our sideboard to combat aggressive strategies, and to lean on Blood Moon to take down the rest.

As always, I tune my brews to beat Modern’s most represented decks. The longer I work on a deck, the better it ends up faring against outlier strategies. Given Crack Moon’s very recent induction to the GRx Moon canon, I haven’t yet tested it against the Tier 3 bracket. But considering how homogenized Modern has recently become, I wouldn’t sweat the X factor too much.

Thought-Knot SeerEldrazi: Favorable. The deck Crack Moon was designed to beat. I primarily tested against the Colorless version, but also got in some games against UR. We may struggle against the Bolt-packing GR Eldrazi, but I didn’t have time to play against it. We’re basically pre-boarded against these decks, although I like to cut Tarfires for the fourth Crack and some Huntmasters post-board. Grudge can also come in for Looting if we expect Chalice of the Void.

It should be noted this matchup goes from “favorable” to “decent” if opponents know what we’re on, since they can play around Crack by baiting the spell with Blinkmoth Nexus or Ghost Quarter, and board in permanents like Relic to sacrifice. But hey, Eldrazi’s the boogeyman for a reason.

Sideboarding:
-3 Tarfire

+1 Crack the Earth
+2 Huntmaster of the Fells

Arcbound RavagerAffinity: Decent. Game 1 is unfortunately a massacre unless we manage to race with Tarmogoyf and Rabblemaster. Assuming we hit a Shatterstorm, Game 2 is a breeze. Otherwise, controlling the Affinity player with Forked Bolt, Anger of the Gods, and Ancient Grudge until we land a Huntmaster can work out.

Sideboarding:
-4 Chromatic Star
-4 Blood Moon
-3 Crack the Earth

+3 Huntmaster of the Fells
+2 Ancient Grudge
+2 Anger of the Gods
+2 Forked Bolt
+2 Shatterstorm

Lightning BoltBurn: Favorable. We take little to no damage from lands, and Tarmogoyf has always been a nightmare for Burn decks. Huntmaster and more removal from the side make this matchup very easy. Stormbreath Dragon comes in since it’s simply better than our other options.

Sideboarding:
-4 Blood Moon
-4 Boom // Bust

+3 Huntmaster of the Fells
+2 Stormbreath Dragon
+1 Crack the Earth
+2 Forked Bolt

Blighted AgentInfect: Favorable. Mana denial really hurts this deck combined with a clock, and Infect lacks the tools to remove Tarmogoyf or even Goblin Rabblemaster. Postboard, we bring in too much removal for them to handle, eliminating the Crack the Earth package for more relevant interaction. Ancient Grudge is a concession to Spellskite.

Sideboarding:
-2 Chromatic Star
-3 Crack the Earth
-4 Boom // Bust

+3 Huntmaster of the Fells
+2 Ancient Grudge
+2 Anger of the Gods
+2 Forked Bolt

ThoughtseizeJund: Decent. Thoughtseize decks have always posed some issues for GRx Moon, which recovers poorly from early hand disruption. Moon happens to crush these decks if we resolve one, but having it Seized away really hurts. Jund also packs enough Bolts to reliably diffuse Goblin Rabblemaster. Postboard, we double down on attacking the deck’s stretched manabase by maxing out on Crack the Earth. Rituals become additional threats to help us in the topdeck war.

Sideboarding:
-4 Desperate Ritual

+3 Huntmaster of the Fells
+1 Crack the Earth

Kitchen FinksAbzan Company: Favorable. As against Affinity, we bring in ample removal options for this matchup. In fact, Anger of the Gods mostly owes its spots to the Kitchen Finks factor. Stormbreath Dragon is close to impossible for Abzan Company to remove (watch out for Big Game Hunter builds), making it the perfect finisher once we run out of Forked Bolts. Grafdigger's Cage shuts off Chord of Calling, Collected Company, and persist creatures.

Sideboarding:
-4 Chromatic Star
-3 Desperate Ritual
-3 Crack the Earth

+1 Grafdigger's Cage
+3 Huntmaster of the Fells
+2 Stormbreath Dragon
+2 Anger of the Gods
+2 Forked Bolt

Cracking Up

Modern is in trouble right now, but it’s not in a state of ruin. I consider the few URx we've seen inconclusive, but more non-linear players may peek their heads out of the Wastes in the coming weeks, scanning the desolation for a viable way to interact in Modern. Between its potential for early land destruction, efficient clocks, and ability to pack the most disruptive anti-Eldrazi card in Modern, GRx Moon feels like a great place to start looking. In any case, whether or not Eye of Ugin is totally broken, Modern won’t give up the fight just yet!

Stock Watch- Ghostly Prison

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So, I know a lot of card prices, but now and them some cards surprise me. What I know about Ghostly Prison is that it was once an FNM Promo, was originally an uncommon, and that it has been printed in multiple supplemental products. I also know that it's just not a very good Magic card, and that I'm always happy when my opponents are casting them. What I would not have guessed, is the card's current price tag.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ghostly Prison

The card has been worth a few bucks for a while, which makes some sense as the card screams casual, though as of late it has been showing up as an element of the Boom // Bust decks and as a speedbump for combating Eldrazi decks.

Buylists prices are basically what the retail price of the card was last month. This card will see a significant drop off in play-ability when Eldrazi is inevitably banned, and the price is definitely at the mercy of potential future reprintings. Kamigawa wasn't a very popular block, nor was Planechase a very popular product, but I am more than happy to dig through my bulk box of Kamigawa to sell these bad boys off. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has these laying around and had no idea they were worth anything.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: The MTGO Botting Landscape & Starting Your Own Bot

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Bots have become an irreplaceable part of the MTGO economy. They are the most common way for players to purchase cards, buy boosters to draft, and exchange winnings for more entry fees. No doubt you've experienced using them from the consumer side---today I'd like to offer some initial advice on setting up your own bot to use for speculation.

If you're going to place your collection and speculative ventures in the hands of a bot, it's important to understand what role they play in the online economy. There are two main reasons bots are so omnipresent on MTGO.

First, there is no fractional currency, or a way to divide up tix into "cents." In such a scenario, you are incentivized to make multiple trades with the same trading partner so that you can use leftover credit from prior trades. Bots fill this role well and are for the most part a safe place to store leftover credit.

The second reason for bots stems from the poor availability and organization of information in the MTGO market. It is difficult to find the best buyers and sellers for any particular card, so going to a bot that's fully stocked with every card at reasonable prices saves valuable time.

A disclaimer before we continue. There have been some alleged shady goings-on with bots in the past. It is my belief that the botting software I use is safe, but I can't guarantee it. Make sure you've done your own research and are comfortable opening up your account to third party software before you take the plunge.

With that being said, let's get to it!

The Botting Ecosystem

There are hundreds of bots on MTGO, each with their own particular customer bases and strategies. They can be categorized roughly as follows:

1) MTGO Library Bots

These bots all use the same botting software and are their prices are listed on MTGO WikiPrice. This gives the bots great visibility and a more detailed pricing algorithm using data from other bots listed on the wiki. Some examples of bots in this category that I use are mtgotickets, modo_mart, and Ninjabots.

2) Large Bot Chains

A bot chain is a collection of bots that share the same credit system. Having multiple bots allows the owner to trade with many customers at once. This adds to reliability and the biggest bot chains like Goatbots and MTGOtraders are a very reliable way to buy and sell almost any card.

The newer bot chains gain business with more competitive pricing while the old ones thrive off of loyal customer bases they've built up over a long period of time. Some other examples include Clanteam and Dojotrade bots. Many of these bots have websites where you can find all of their prices.

3) Small Standalone Bots or Niche Bots

For smaller bots, there is less traffic and therefore less of a need for an entire bot chain. Many bots fall into this category, including niche bots that specialize in particular types of cards like foils, Pauper, packs, bulk, etc. When you are first starting out, your bot will be of this type.

Some factors to think about when comparing different bots: customer following, number of bots in chain, whether they have a website, how they write their classifieds listings, what cards or sets are sold, depth of inventory, speed of trades, pricing algorithms, etc.

Starting Your Own Bot

There are two main ways to make money (tix) via botting:

1) Profit off of the Spread (Dealer)

With this strategy, you take whatever price the market dictates and sell the card for a bit more and buy it for a bit less. Your profit is the difference in the buying and selling price, or the spread.

Under this strategy, you don't care which cards you are dealing with as long as you make a large quantity of trades and your cards stay even or increase in value. (You can also profit off of cards that are falling in value if you make enough trades relative to the speed of the fall in price.)

If you act as a dealer on MTGO you will have to compete with other dealers as you would in any business. To thrive, you will have to offer something the others don't. It could be better pricing, reliability, marketing, customer satisfaction, or something else. For this reason, I don't recommend this strategy for beginners.

Pricing becomes a tricky business when you're dealing with hundreds or thousands of cards at once. The most common techniques to address this are 1) to copy someone else's prices; 2) to slowly adjust your prices based on your recent sales/purchases; and 3) price based on current market data (wikiprice API).

Of course, if you want to take the time to learn the ins and outs of running a dealer bot, it can be a very profitable enterprise. However speculation is what I recommend if you want to just get your feet wet.

2) Profit off of Speculation (Speculator)

Speculation is simply buying a card you expect to be worth more in the future. You buy low and sell high. This strategy is rarely used by bots since the majority of them opt for a dealer strategy.

There are a few advantages to speculating via a bot as opposed to manually. For example, you can sometimes sell higher and buy lower than you would be able to do manually. This happens because of the spread between buy and sell prices bots generally have, meaning that you often would rather be on the bot side of a trade than the human side.

Another advantage is that you can buy or sell exactly at the point in time that the market hits some predetermined price. For example if you set your buy price of Deathmist Raptor at 9 tix, you will end up buying copies roughly at the time that the market price falls to 9 tix. If you are doing trades manually, you run the risk of missing certain windows of opportunity.

There is a downside to this method, however. If you leave your buy price fixed at 9 tix you may be overpaying if the card falls to, say, 8 tix. Speculating via bot is ultimately a tool you must learn to use according to its own strengths and weaknesses.

There is also a hidden third way in which botting can make you money: it can save lots of time! Substituting manual trades with bot trades can save you hours of labor which can be just as valuable as money.

Step by Step

Getting started with bots is easier than you might think. Below is a step-by-step explanation of how to set up a bot using the MTGO Library software. I've chosen this bot software because it's what I know and use personally. I'll lay out everything I would tell myself if I could go back in time to six months ago when I first started botting.

An aside about fees. There are two types of fee systems that you can choose between for the MTGO Library (and most other) bots. Either you pay a 2.5% fee on each transaction or you pay a fixed monthly or yearly fee. I think there may also be a period when you can try it out for free (the first month or so). There may also be a system where under a sufficiently low number of trades per month, you pay no fees.

If you find a system that makes profitable speculation-based trades, it will be nearly impossible for the fees to overcome your profits. You can then make an informed choice between the two systems based on the total tix worth of trades you're making per month.

1) Go to the MTGOLibrary Site and Download

You can find the download link at www.mtgolibrary.com. You may have to register an account first. When you have finished downloading, run the program "MTGO Library Bot."

When the first screen comes up, click on the picture for the "MTGO Library Pro Bot."

lucaqsfirst

2) The Settings I Use

Here is everything you need to know for starting out a speculation bot, starting from the first tab:

lucaqssecond

  • A1: The username of the MTGO account you will bot on
  • A2: Your MTGO password
  • A3: Your MLBot account password
  • B1: Max trade time. I like to use the lowest possible.
  • B2: Ditto for max inactivity time.
  • B3: I'm not entirely sure what the use of restarting is, but I set it at every two hours.
  • B4: If you are speculating in the way I lay it out, you won't need to download any prices because you will be setting them all yourself.
  • C: I like to make all cards tradable because I don't mind if someone buys 100 copies at once.
  • D: I think for many reasons it makes sense to be both a buyer and seller bot. Additionally I think it makes sense to give customers the choice in taking cards or tickets as payment for their own cards.
  • E1: Again, you won't need to download any prices.
  • E2: A free download of prices can give you a baseline of prices in case you forget to price something in your personal prices file.
  • E3: Make sure that this is checked. You want to be using the personal prices file.
  • E4: Unless you have a good reason, I would leave this unchecked. Sometimes foils are worth more than their nonfoil counterparts and vice-versa.

The only other tab you will need to be familiar with is the "Messages" tab:

lucaqsthird

In this tab you set everything related to the messages your bot sends to customers in-trade and your classifieds ad.

Don't underestimate the importance of a well written classifieds ad. I have experienced many times that a customer will open a trade with my bot based solely on finding my classifieds ad. Make sure to prioritize listing cards that you are selling, maybe even omitting the price to get people to open a trade to find it out. Experiment and see what works.

  • A: Leave this checked as I'm pretty sure it reduces your percentage-based fee if you are under that fee system.
  • B: Input your classified message here for when your bot is not currently in a trade.
  • C: Input your classified message here for when your bot is currently in a trade. I leave the two the same.
  • D: This will automatically put "busy"/"open" in front of your classifieds message. I would leave it checked.

3) Personal Prices

The last big step is to set all of your prices. You can do so by opening the file "PersonalPrices.txt" inside the "prices" folder in your "MTGO Library Bot" folder. The format for setting prices is as follows:

Set;Card;Regular Sell Price;Foil Sell Price;Regular Buy Price;Foil Buy Price;Regular Buy Quantity;Foil Buy Quantity

For example in my PersonalPrices file I have the line:

ORI;Abbot of Keral Keep;5;5;3.3;3.3;100;0

This means I will buy copies of Abbot of Keral Keep at a price of 3.3 tix until my bot has 100 copies. I will also sell any copies of the card for 5 tix.

If you don't know the spelling for the set code (in this case ORI, for Magic Origins) you can go look for a card in the "CardsMTGO" file in the same folder.

4) Some Last Minute Checks

Make sure you have some tix on the bot if you want it to show up on MTGO WikiPrice. I'm not sure at exactly what point they filter the bot out of wiki. It might be 1 ticket or it might be more.

In order to run your bot, go to the first tab ("General") and click the launch button at the bottom of the window.

About 5-10 minutes after you launch your bot, search for your cards on mtgowikiprice to see if it's working. You can pause your bot with ctrl+p and you can turn it off with alt+x.

Beware the Filter!

There is a newly implemented feature on MTGOLibrary bots that sometimes filters prices off of MTGO WikiPrice. This happens if sell prices fall too far below, or buy prices rise too far above, the market price.

This means two things for us. First, it means there may be bots selling cards for even lower prices than the lowest one listed on MTGO WikiPrice. I'm not sure of a good way to find out which ones, but maybe you can! Second, it means that you may have to increase your sell prices a bit or decrease your buy prices a bit if you are getting filtered out in this way.

And that's it! You should be good to go, with a few minimal speed bumps along the way.

~

I hope this article teaches you something new, or maybe even saves you some time and hassle if you were planning on starting your own bot. You can add me on facebook.com/luca,ashok if you want to chat about anything MTG- or finance-related.

I also thought I'd start adding a song of the week to my articles for fun! Perhaps you love discovering new music as much as I do.

Song of the week: Then They Flew - La Lys (Post-rock / Instrumental)

Enjoy, and thanks for reading!

- Luca

Avatar photo

Luca Ashok

Luca has been playing Magic on and off since Invasion, but for the past year has chosen to shift focus to the financial aspects of the game. He uses his studies in economics at Stanford as a basis for his thoughts on the MTG marketplace. He has been known to play Pauper from time to time and was the first person to develop the Esper Familiars deck for which Frantic Search and Temporal Fissure were eventually banned.

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Posted in Botting, Finance, Free Insider, MTGOTagged , 3 Comments on Insider: The MTGO Botting Landscape & Starting Your Own Bot

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Insider: Knowns and Unknowns with Regard to Eternal Masters

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The Eternal Masters rumor has been floating around for a while now, but this week we got official confirmation. Already we have started to see prices increase for relevant reserve list cards, and David Schumann did an excellent write-up earlier this week outlining cards likely to see EMA reprints. Today I want to touch on some of the known information for the set, and also on relevant unknown information.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Will

The Force of Will reprint is bad news, at least in the short term, for owners of the card. The price has already dipped, though the print run of EMA will be short. What remains to be seen is just how much demand there is for Legacy staples going forward.

What we know with regard to Modern Masters is that the mythic rarity in limited print run sets doesn't have a very negative impact on older printings. A caveat to this is that demand has increased for Modern following the release of both Modern Masters sets. It's unclear if Legacy Masters will lead to the same increase in demand for Legacy staples.

To be clear, I'm not advocating selling off Force of Will---especially not during the dip happening right now. The two most likely scenarios for EMA are that it does drive demand for Legacy and prices do increase, or the set doesn't do much of anything and the price inevitably recovers. New Force of Wills will come in foil, which will certainly be in demand, but Alliances Forces will always be worth more than the non-foil EMA versions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wasteland

Wasteland as a regular rare is a bit trickier, and it will be more difficult for Wasteland to retain value without Legacy gaining popularity from this release. Wasteland is an EDH and Cube staple, but the price is dipping and is much less likely to recover meaningfully than Force of Will.

Selling right now doesn't feel great, but it might be your best opportunity for some time. I'll be holding onto my set, but you stand to lose a lot more value if you have a lot of these.

The Unknowns

Bergeot

The release of Modern Masters 2015 was huge. There were three Limited GPs across the globe and on-demand events firing for people to get their hands on more product. It's unclear exactly what the strategy is for EMA, but what we do know is that it is releasing the same weekend as Legacy Constructed GPs.

This reads to me more like an opportunity for non-Legacy players to play a sweet limited format while actual Legacy players play Legacy than it does a way to support the format. This is compounded by the fact that there is only one more Legacy GP all year, and no mysterious "TBD" events.

A boom in Legacy is impossible without tournament support. The cost of owning dual lands is afforded only by people with a fair amount of disposable income or those who stand to put that money to work towards winning more money with those cards. The people with money for Volcanic Islands weren't waiting for cheaper Force of Wills.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Island

Owning dual lands remains a strong position, but most of the value just comes from the fact that they are more liquid than most other Magic cards. They just saw a jump with an announcement, and to maintain this growth or to grow further there just needs to be more actual demand.

I would basically only tell somebody to sell off dual lands if they needed the money, and I would always recommend trying to trade Standard and Modern staples into dual lands. This announcement really doesn't have any impact on my position on these cards. You're putting a lot of cash into them if this announcement caused you to buy in, and I'd much rather be turning profitable specs into dual lands than trying to spec on the duals themselves.

There Isn't a New Format

I've heard talk of "No Reserve List Legacy" and it just isn't going to be a thing. The support for Modern right now is huge, and such a format would only cause tension between the two formats.

Yes, it might be more affordable than Legacy for now, but it would also both cause huge increases in prices of a lot of cards the same way that Modern has, and just suck as a format to boot. It might not be fair for me to say that No Reserve List Legacy would suck, but I have my reasons for thinking it would simply be inferior to actual Legacy---downgrading of dual lands only being one of my concerns.

NRLL

You can't play City of Traitors. You can play Ancient Tomb. You can't play Eureka. You can play Show and Tell. Don't even think about casting a Sedge Troll!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Show and Tell

The list is just a bunch of nonsense, and crafting a format around it isn't going to be intuitive. You could make a format that is only with sets printed after Urza's Legacy, but then we're still just grasping at straws for ways to play cool cards when we already have Legacy.

It's not like there is actually a problem with dual land availability, at least in the United States. Revised had a sizable print run. The price concerns are real, but Magic is a luxury item and any new format you introduce is going to be expensive, too.

Not to mention...

Forscythe

There's not a new format coming. This is a set intended to benefit the Legacy format, which again, will have an impact based entirely on the format seeing more tournament support. Some of you might use the following as a reason to believe that a new format is coming:

Maro

To be blunt, this simply has nothing to do with EMA, and is just an obvious inevitability. Magic is an ever-growing game, and as it gets larger more ways to play will surface. It would be amazing if a new tournament format never emerged. I mean, come on.

Further, this is from the man who has been pushing for Un-set 3 and making riggers that assemble contraptions for many years. There is inevitability in these things, but they're not on the horizon any time soon.

Takeaways

In sum, EMA is a starting point for growing Legacy, but what the format really needs is tournaments for people to play. I think that investing in Legacy staples that won't see reprints in EMA is obviously a good way to turn a profit, though without this tournament support, the investment strategy is going to vary.

If we continue to see low tournament support, then I'd be looking at flipping that Reserve List stuff and anything confirmed not to be in EMA quickly. If we do see the format supported more then I like investing more in the format as a long-term strategy.

A tried and true method to grow your portfolio will always be to trade into dual lands. This isn't changing. As for the matters that are changing, there's simply too much going on that we don't know yet---and I definitely don't advise investing in Reserve List cards that have seen recent gains until the future of price trajectories of cards like that are more certain.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Virtually Infinite – Hope Springs Eternal

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Eternal Masters has been the talk of the paper Magic community, but it has major implications for MTGO players, collectors and speculators as well. The last time we had a draftable eternal set---Vintage Masters---it created a new online format, cratered the prices of Legacy and Classic reprints, and created strong demand for staples that were omitted from the set.

Vintage Masters (VMA) was so heavily drafted that it created a new floor for a whole set of cards that had never been released in large supply. Many of these have rebounded nicely since. This volatility created a ton of opportunities, and savvy QS insiders cleaned up. My article series in the run-up to VMA helped identify some of the signposts, and I'll be doing that again with Eternal Masters (EMA).

Eternal Masters

A Long Time Coming

When the card list for VMA was announced, I speculated that the absence of several obvious reprints signaled it was "only a matter of time before we see an announcement of the next virtual-only summer set: Legacy Masters. (Of course, it could take a couple years, and a lot will happen before then…)"

I was wrong. It wasn't virtual only. But it's finally here. Buckle your seat belts cause we’re in for another wild ride...

The unfortunate news is that MTGO moves so quickly that the market has already responded to the EMA announcement. If you haven’t acted yet you’ve already missed the early action on obvious plays like selling Wasteland and Force of Will or buying dual lands.

In retrospect, the best time to act was before the announcement, when Legacy Leagues were first announced. (Lots of folks in the forums advised this, so be sure you're taking advantage of that resource available to QS Insiders.)

Tundra
VMA duals have doubled in price, but might have room to grow.

The good news is that there are still plenty of plays to make in the coming weeks to mitigate losses from potential reprints and maximize gains from cards that remain in low supply.

One caveat: speculating on eternal cards usually requires a larger bankroll and does not provide the "sure bet" of speculating on rotation and boosters. It can be a high-performing part of your MTGO portfolio, but be careful about getting too much exposure to cards that can be reprinted at any time.

With that in mind, let’s get started.

Lessons from Vintage Masters

Vintage Masters created a whole new format on MTGO (Vintage) and increased the accessibility of Legacy. There are some parallels here---Legacy leagues kicked off this week and should revive Legacy as a format online.

The arrival of Pauper leagues in October led to a dramatic rise in prices across the format. Similarly, Legacy leagues should drive demand for a variety of staples. The barriers to entry are higher compared to Pauper, so I don’t expect the same price leaps, but we’ve already seen increased demand for dual lands and other staples.

The looming uncertainty of EMA reprints will somewhat dampen the enthusiasm to buy in to Legacy at the moment and put a lid on speculative activity. Because of this, we can expect a round of major spikes after the full EMA set list is released. When Wasteland did not appear on the VMA set list, its price spiked from 65 tix to 100 tix within hours, and hit 150 tix a few weeks later.

The key is to be holding the right cards at that moment, as prices will adjust very quickly.

What will be reprinted?

Here’s what we know about Eternal Masters:

  • Paper and digital release (unlike VMA). This means designers will have to consider equities and scarcity in both paper and digital market.
  • EMA will contain VMA cards that are expensive in paper but cheap in digital, and vice versa.
  • MTGO release of EMA will be June 17.
  • It is designed with Commander, Vintage and Legacy in mind.
  • No Reserve List cards will appear in EMA. I expect there to be a lot of chase Commander cards in paper that won’t be worth much online.
  • EMA is designed to be drafted. Good luck finding a draft at your local game store, but online there will be no cap to how much is drafted. Drafting will last for three weeks. Like VMA, I wouldn’t be surprised if the draft window were extended or if EMA were flashed back.
  • Cost of digital packs will be $6.99 (same as VMA and Modern Masters). Interesting that they made them $2 cheaper than paper packs.
  • Based on VMA, I'd expect the full card list for EMA to drop in late May. We will get a stream of previews starting in April and May, after the Shadows Over Innistrad release.
  • The set will include Wasteland at Rare and Force of Will at Mythic.
  • The art for Wasteland is a wasted-away City of Brass (this one has no financial implications whatsoever, but is just plain cool).

Wasteland City of Brass

Another key piece of information we have is the complete flashback draft schedule through June. It includes only Modern-era sets. That means that if an older card is not in EMA, it is almost certainly not entering the market through other means until June. In the announcement, Lee Sharpe notes, "We won't make it all the way through Modern, but we'll keep going (absent breaks for set releases) until we run out of weeks in the year!"

I'm interpreting that to mean that they will keep going with Modern set releases through December---it was announced, after all, as "The Year of Modern Flashbacks." That said, there's always a chance they sprinkle in a week of Vintage Masters or Tempest Remastered drafts.

Based on this information---and with no further speculation---we can create a basket of cards that should go up. (I posted a modified list of these a week ago in the forum. Again, that’s the best place to track real-time developments.)

The Dual Lands

The blue duals have already jumped in price. But there may be some room for growth among the others, which still find their way into decks.

Fast Mana

Prices on these seem lower than they should be given the frequency with which these are played in top decks. As do these:

Low-supply Legacy Playables

We know that none of these cards will be reprinted because they are on the Reserve List. At current prices, every one of these cards represents a fairly safe buy, and some seem like a sure-fire profit.

What Will the Set Include?

What cards represent a high reprint risk? We can make some educated guesses based on what we know of the goals for this set. There's some good prognostication on the QS forum on this topic.

If you think a reprint is likely, you should look to part with the card in question over the next few weeks. Let’s be clear: we are not panic-selling here. If you don’t like the price, wait a bit. We have four months of Vintage leagues before EMA hits the marketplace.

With that in mind, here are some early bets:

First, we have a list of cards from the person who leaked the Splinter Twin/Amulet of Vigor ban and leaked the release of EMA. Normally I don’t put too much weight in anonymous leaks, but this person has a pretty impressive track record. Here’s a quote from the reddit post:

Cards I know are in the set: Port, Stoneforge.

Cards I know via verbal communication: Zen fetches, Mother of Runes, Lotus Petal, Infernal Tutor, Cabal Ritual, a piece of the elf deck, Sneak and/or Show, Judgment wishes.

These all seem plausible, and would have been on my watch list, so let’s keep these front and center.

In particular, Rishadan Port is not on the Reserve List, and is in low supply in both paper and digital. It's a key piece in the aggressive decks, which are an otherwise cheap entry point for new players. And it’s at 180 tix right now, so I would look to unload these sooner rather than later.

Another key set of reprints could be the Zendikar fetchlands, which the leaker claims are in the set:

Reprints of Zenkidar Fetchlands?

Based on conversations in the forum and David Schumann's insightful piece, here are some other cards to keep an eye on:

Watch List

Again, we aren't panic-selling here. They can't reprint all of these, and there will be the usual numbers crunch as they try to balance Limited (heavy on creatures) with the desire to provide something to all players: Commander, Vintage, Legacy, Modern and casual.

This should be a great set. Let's go earn some tix for free drafts! Keep a close eye on the forums as things unfold.

High Stakes MTGO – Feb 7th to Feb 13th

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Welcome back to High-Stakes MTGO!

This past week saw a lot of movements in both directions. Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch polarized Modern prices with any Eldrazi-related cards going up and pretty much everything else falling abruptly. Later Legacy leagues were announced to be coming on MTGO along with the monthly Legacy Challenge. All of that created several selling and buying opportunities I tried to capitalize on.

Lets see how it went and what might be next in both Modern and Legacy. Here is the snapshot of the account as of last Saturday.

Buy This Week

BFZ34

The price of a Battle for Zendikar full set didn’t really go below 65 tix this past week and a half. Nevertheless I wanted to get more sets and definitively established my BFZ full set position with seven additional sets.

From now on I would expect the price of a BFZ full set to stabilize or slightly increase until the release of Shadow Over Innistrad. If prices fall in the 60-63 tix price range or below between now and April, or during SOI release events, I might add couple more BFZ sets.

PtE

Path to Exile may be out of favor these days but it is still a very potent removal spell in Modern, back to a 2 tix floor recently. I decided to reinforce my position here with 41 additional copies for about 2 tix per copy. Conflux flashback drafts are not scheduled until much later this year and with very low chances of reprint, the Modern pseudo-Swords to Plowshares has a lot of potential pricewise.

RPCF

Now that a few Modern flashback drafts have taken place I’m assuming that investing in cards from these sets is decently safe, especially if these cards are at or close to their long-term lows. Although it may take a long time to get a return on these investments there’s pretty much no risk in stocking up on such cards.

All of the above cards spiked at some point in their recent history, and I bet it can happen again. As more sets are flashback-drafted I’ll keep looking for these cheap/bulk cards in addition to the obvious Modern staples we all know.

KL

Following the ban of Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom, a lot of cards including Karn Liberated got a huge boost, for nothing. Now that the price took a good hit this was another opportunity to buy a card nobody wanted.

OS

Similarly to Karn, Oblivion Stone suffered from poor results posted by Tron decks. I already had 10 copies of the Stone but the price was getting more attractive and I could afford it. I reloaded 7 copies at ~15.5 tix on average.

EotGR

Not a big winner after PT OGW, Eidolon dropped from 25 tix to 15 tix in two weeks. However this is still a great card and Burn decks are always around. I'm not expecting miracles from this spec---coming back to the 20-25 tix range is all I'm aiming at with my 16 copies of Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Legacy

Legacy leagues and the monthly Legacy Challenge have been announced last week. Two great reasons to see players get more into the Legacy format and to see prices rising.

When it comes to prices Legacy is clearly not Pauper, but Pauper leagues had a huge effect on Pauper prices; will we see the same with Legacy? I could not buy everything I wished for but here is what I got. Hopefully there are solid specs for the weeks to come.

Sales This Week

Pro Tour OGW collateral damage. Selling into the hype is always good, selling into the hype with two major positions (Chalice of the Void and Eye of Ugin) having more than doubled in merely two weeks is even better.

With big gains on big positions it was merely impossible to pass and it was clearly a good move. A symbolic comparison: the Eyes of Ugin generated more profit in less than two weeks than the "100 Tix 1 Year" project did in one year.

On My Radar

I was talking last week about foil mythics from OGW. I could not get enough certainty from previous data and sets when I looked into it. It was already supposed to be a low margin spec but without enough convincing data in my opinion I'll simply pass on these. If it turns out to be a good spec I'll remember it for the set following Shadows Over Innistrad.

One thing I'm keeping an eye on currently are my Legendary Cube (Pz1) positions and boosters. They were a great acquisition back in December and the value of all my positions with this set are up, some even having tripled already. The advent of Legacy leagues and the Legacy Challenge will certainly give another boost to them.

I surely don't want to be too greedy here. I'll be checking prices more often than before to try to get the most out of my PZ1 positions without risking another bout of Pz1 packs hitting the market as prizes again.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

ManaLeak.com Interviews Kelly Reid about the ION Scanner

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Last week, I was interviewed by manaleak.com to discuss the ION Scanner.  We spent about 15 minutes on the phone talking about what ION is, how we'll be distributing it, and how we think it'll change Magic: The Gathering forever.

With as much as Trader Tools offered, there was still a problem. “This tool will do all the heavy lifting once it knows what cards I own,” says Reid. “I don’t have time to type in every single card.”

This is a problem faced by most Magic: The Gathering retailers who want to inventory their stock of singles. Reid set out to remedy this problem with a software that could do that job for him. “I had a webcam taped to a stick,” says Reid, “and I stitched together a couple of pieces of open-source software, and eventually I was able to get it to recognize a Magic card in about 10 or 20 seconds, which is obviously way too slow.” As a result, Reid shelved the project.

Over the next few years, the technology of card scanning began to improve. Apps were developed for smartphones that allowed users to scan their cards into a database using the built-in cameras, for example.

“The problem was that you have to hold your phone in one hand, and manipulate cards in the other hand,” Reid says, “and I didn’t really care for that. As a store owner, you might have millions of cards that are sitting in cards and uncatalogued.”

 

Read the Whole Interview Here

or

Listen to it Here

Opinions, and How to Beat Eldrazi

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Last week's article touched off a bit of a firestorm in the comment section. I'll admit I didn't phrase my point as well as I could have, but I still maintain the hysterics are overblown and, despite its power (and metagame share!), Eldrazi can be beaten. Later on, I'm going to show you how by diving into some decks that have proven that they can take on the Eldrazi. But before that, I feel the need to eat a little crow over how I approached last weeks article. If your only here for deck tech skip down a bit but for those who actually enjoy Trevor being Trevor, I've got some Trevoring to do first.

Damned Banner

Part One: Opinions (or, The Spilling of My Heart Onto Your Screen)

I’ve never professed to be something I’m not. I’ve Day Two’d a couple of GP’s, gone deep in a few StarCityGames Opens, and got to 8-8 at a Pro Tour, but never cracked the barrier into Top 8. I dedicated myself heavily to the game of Magic for a few months and got good, maybe even very good, which (with a bit of luck) I used to get myself onto that Pro Tour stage. For that tournament, I did the best I could without a testing team, and relied on prior format knowledge and a few drafts to get my feet wet with the new set to pass as “preparation”.

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I started that Pro Tour 1-4, and started to question whether I had any business playing this game at all. Maybe I just faced a soft Regional Pro Tour Qualifier crowd, and I really don’t have what it takes to play Magic. Maybe I’ve read enough articles that I consider myself intelligent when it comes to this game, but really I’m just delusional. Maybe I should go back to playing Destiny and focus more on architecture.

Three wins. Three wins equates to an 8-Player single-elimination event win on MTGO, which is good for a pack or so and about 80 SchruteBucks nowadays. Three wins gets you a sweep of a draft, which does feel pretty good (if it’s an 8-4). Three wins gets you victory in an insert-random-three-out-of-five challenge here. But three wins got me into Day Two of Pro Tour Magic Origins in Vancouver and, more than that, three wins got me the confidence I needed to finally start believing in myself and my abilities.

The only thing that I can truly call mine are my abilities and my opinions. I posted this in the comments of my article last week, but I want to re-state them here (as last week’s discussion is the genesis for my topic this week):

"It has always been my hope that the truly awesome readers of my articles would understand that my primary goal as a content producer for this site is not to “be right”, or “seem smart” or “get it first”. I have been, and always will be, focused on attempting to generate interesting conversation and a unique point of view."

Whether we realize it or not, almost everything we experience in life is an opinion of some form or other, put through some type of filter. News broadcasts are spun to fit political ideologies, if not in content then simply by the choice of what and what not to report. Scientific research studies are rarely credible; both methods and vernacular of data presentation can be manipulated to fit any preconceptions.  Economics studies are one example, unemployment numbers are another. Google "coffee studies" right now and you'll find five different opinions as to how much you should/shouldn't drink, with credible data to back up every side. Why do we take these as facts, when they are clearly not?

There are, and always will be, smarter individuals with better accomplishments than me writing words about Magic: The Gathering. However, I think there's a reason that you listen to me even if my accomplishments are few, my writing style is atrocious, and my humor is flat. Why? Because, and I'm guessing here, I offer something unique (or you're just really, really bored).

What makes me unique, in my opinion, is my honesty, and the way that I embrace it. I may be wrong in some places (the Eldrazi feel pretty dang strong...), I may be right in others (gotta love Origins Jace!), but I will always be honest about my opinions. As long as there is an audience to listen, I will present them to you the only way I know how. Sometimes, it’s with puns, witty humor, and off-the-wall references. Sometimes, it’s with barely passable connections to seemingly dissimilar topics. Sometimes, it’s with sarcasm; edgy, unsettling, bordering on offensive. I may not be right all the time. I may not be right half the time. But at least I’m honest, and at least I own my opinions as my own.

Hopefully you didn’t come here for hard, unyielding facts alone. You came here for my opinion about those facts, or to be entertained, or to be persuaded, or because football season is over. I strongly believe if everyone else is focused on discussing how and why the Eldrazi deck should be banned, I should take a different opinion. This doesn’t make me an idiot who doesn’t understand the fundamental rules of Magic. This makes me unique, or at least semi-interesting to listen to, which is, and always will be, my primary focus.

Part Two: How To Beat Eldrazi

Endless oneAnyway, enough naval gazing! Last week I argued the Modern community was severely overreacting to Eldrazi and that if we put our brains to it we could Wipe Away the threat and continue about our business like there never was a panic. That's a hard sentiment to stand by given what we now know definitively about the metagame, but I maintain the deck is beatable by conventional means. We need to at least examine our options and try to win before running around like the sky is falling (even if it actually is).

Eldrazi is one of the fastest and most powerful aggressive decks to ever exist in Modern. The combination of undercosted fatties and multiple Ancient Tombs sets the deck's speed and power well apart from the pack, and to forget this is fatal. However, at the end of the day it is still a linear creature deck that runs almost no interaction (Dismember and Thought-Knot Seer alone doesn't cut it).Eldrazi Temple This isn't Affinity, with multiple angles of attack and the ability to shift gears in the middle of the combat phase. Eldrazi is a souped-up, colorless version of Zoo. If you can survive the initial explosion, traditional control methods can still take over and win the fair way. Or you can take advantage of their lack of interaction and less-explosive draws to simply out-unfair them. Rather than panicking, I'm trying to adapt to and defeat them. To that end lets look at some decks that actual have been beating Eldrazi online. MTGO has been running PTQ's and while, yes, Eldrazi has been winning them, other decks have done surprisingly well. With some work and dedication, we may be able to push back the tide and win the day, Gatewatch or no.

I said Grixis could take Eldrazi. Many of the comments said Grixis could never take Eldrazi. Nothing could take Eldrazi. But lookie here, Grixis DID take on Eldrazi, and acquitted itself quite well.

"Grixis Control, Ingrish, 6-2 – MTGO PTQ"

Creatures

3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

Instants

2 Cryptic Command
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
4 Terminate

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Damnation
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
3 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Darkslick Shores
2 Island
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
1 Wandering Fumarole
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Dispel
1 Engineered Explosives
3 Ensnaring Bridge
2 Liliana of the Veil
1 Nihil Spellbomb
3 Pyroclasm
1 Spellskite
3 Spreading Seas

First, opinions. Now, the facts, bullet-point style.

  • Pia and Kiran Nalaar is basically Lingering Souls, except it can actually kill Eldrazi Mimics after the copied toughness wears out, rather than chumping/keeping them home.
  • DamnationTwo Damnation in the main isn’t just for Eldrazi. It fits into the overall strategy. This deck always should have been playing Damnation main, and I wish I'd realized that sooner. I had one in the board that always came in against Jund, every creature deck, Living End, etc. Talk about missing a hint...
  • Notice the return to classic Grixis Control, and the reduction of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. Counterspells are good again, and the best answer for Thought-Knot Seer is Mana Leak (or Thoughtseize). Definitely keep this in mind if you plan on sleeving up the old-school/new-school Rise // Fall version.
  • Spreading Seas is in the board. No Fulminator Mages or Molten Rain, so the Spreading Seas are a swap for those spells to better fight against Eldrazi. Two-mana land destruction is so much better than three, especially when it cantrips. Against Eldrazi, we're really looking to shut down Eye of Ugin and the unending threat stream it brings. Seas is perfect for the job, with the added benefit of a better curve position.
  • Ensnaring BridgeEnsnaring Bridge is excellent, both against Eldrazi and random beatsticks you don’t want to spend a Lightning Bolt on. Combined with Keranos, Bridge is a hard lock against most of the format.
  • While Wandering Fumarole is cool, I haven’t played with it myself and don’t want to speak much on it until I do. Still, I'm interested to see whether it’s better than the fourth Creeping Tar Pit or a singleton Ghost Quarter.

Despite all this and Ingrish's MTGO run, I'm not quite sure if Grixis Control has what it takes to survive in a post Splinter Twin world. Piloting Grixis Control, I was always happy to play against any blue deck, but that might be due to my preference and skill playing blue mirror matches rather than any distinct advantage the deck had against Twin. Grixis Control always seemed stretched a little too thin trying to fight Affinity/Infect/Tron/Jund/Scapeshift/Burn/Twin, and maybe the new metagame without Twin and Scapeshift could let it focus a bit more on beating the top archetypes. Certainly now that we know Tier 1 is almost exclusively linear aggro, control players have a much easier time selecting answers and building their gameplans. Ensnaring Bridge pushes the deck firmly into topdeck-Jund territory after boarding, and definitely makes me want to take a second look at the archetype. It may be that playing a Burning Bridges style control deck is what Grixis mages have been looking for this entire time. Definitely something to watch.

Next we have something to warm the cockles of not only control players hearts but former Twin players' hearts. Eldrazi might rule the ground, but the sky still belongs to Restoration Angel and infinite combos are still very good.

"Jeskai Control, Godfather, 7-1 – MTGO PTQ"

Creatures

4 Restoration Angel
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Wall of Omens
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Instants

2 Cryptic Command
3 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
3 Mana Leak
4 Path to Exile
2 Spell Snare

Land

4 Arid Mesa
2 Cascade Bluffs
2 Flooded Strand
1 Mountain
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Plains
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
2 Island
4 Celestial Colonnade

Sideboard

2 Crumble to Dust
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Keranos, God of Storms
3 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Shadow of Doubt
3 Stony Silence
2 Supreme Verdict
1 Wear // Tear

  • Wall of OmensFour Wall of Omens buys time against Eldrazi Mimic, which is really all you need. Sure, it’s chumping when Mimic is triggering off Reality Smasher and Thought-Knot Seer, but saving four/five damage and drawing a card is worth two mana to me. Besides, if you ever blink it with Restoration Angel you’re immediately ahead, and a deck with this many one-mana removal spells needs a way to generate card advantage.
  • On that important topic of card advantage, this deck has Wall of Omens, Restoration Angel, Snapcaster Mage, Electrolyze, and Cryptic Command. We have Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker too if we want to copy all our creature tricks. The sheer quantity and variety of cantrips and card advantage makes it impossible for any deck to shut off all our sources, ensuring that we will pull ahead on cards as long as our numerous one-for-ones keep us alive.
  • ElectrolyzeElectrolyze fell out of favor when Splinter Twin was banned, but it wrecks Eldrazi Mimic draws (read: their best draws). It's also a beating against Infect and helps you play around Spellskite.
  • This deck does all it needs to for beating Eldrazi; kill stuff, buy time, combo out. Colorless Eldrazi lists are running a playset of Dismember at most, and Thought-Knot Seer gets worse when we’re drawing so many cards after turn three. Eldrazi may have an advantage in explosiveness and power but this deck holds card advantage fueled inevitability and the ability to just win unexpectedly.
I really like the idea of Kiki Combo, even if it needs a better name. Threatening to win over an untap step from far behind is still very good, especially with a deck as potent as Eldrazi stomping around. However, I feel the Supreme Verdicts really needs to be maindecked, and not just because I said to run Damnation last week and in the Grixis section. Aggro decks are everywhere and despite the card draw and removal, having a reset button for when you fall behind is very good. Still, if you're pining over lost infinite Exarchs, this is probably the way to go.

And finally, because it's always best to end on something fun and different, have some Eggs.

"Krark-Clan Combo, Spokes, 5-3 – MTGO PTQ"

Artifacts

4 Krark-Clan Ironworks
4 Terrarion
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
3 Lotus Bloom
4 Mox Opal
4 Ichor Wellspring
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
1 Codex Shredder

Planeswalkers

2 Tezzeret the Seeker

Sorceries

4 Reshape
2 Open the Vaults

Instants

4 Faith's Reward

Lands

1 Buried Ruin
4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Flooded Strand
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Island
3 Plains
2 Radiant Fountain

Sideboard

4 Aether Spellbomb
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Nihil Spellbomb
4 Sunbeam Spellbomb
2 Virulent Wound

I admit, this is just here for the lol’s. Still, 5-3 in an MTGO PTQ is fun. Come on guys, live a little!

  • Second SunriseThe Eggs core remains relatively unchanged since Stanislav Cifka won the Pro Tour. Even if Second Sunrise is gone there's still Faith's Reward and Open the Vaults to make the combo work.
  • Tezzeret the Seeker over Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas is an unusual choice, but one that makes sense if what you want is to tutor for bullets or for a missing combo piece.
  • You only have a few business spells but the deck is so full of cantrips you don't always have to mulligan to find them. This gives Thought-knot Seer fits too.
  • Radiant Fountain and the spellbombs out of the board buy you a surprising amount of time against aggro.
  • Admit it, you've always wanted to hardcast Emrakul!

In all seriousness, Eggs was a very competitive deck before Cifka convinced Wizards to ban Second Sunrise.Thought-Knot Seer Even now, it's not a bad deck, and with the format being pushed in an aggro direction unfair combos may be a legitimate way to go. Old School conventional wisdom always assumed combo beat aggro, so if you're going to try and take advantage of the warped metagame then going for an unfair, uninteractive combo is a good place to start. Thought-Knot Seer may be good at taking a critical combo piece, but when your deck is so packed full of cantrips it is far less damaging than you think. With counters at an all time low Eggs is far better positioned than it has ever been. It is still a bit risky to durdle around with all your eggs which is probably why Spokes had a full set of Aether and Sunbeam Spellbombs in his sideboard. Thankfully, processors aren't popular anymore because running Relic of Progenitus scrambles Eggs.

Conclusion

Sheridan does the metagame information updates and statistical breakdowns that will make your head hurt and wish you paid attention when they were teaching bar graphs in school. Patrick Chapin does the “actually is a genius, so here’s 2000 words that blow your mind” pieces. ChannelFireball... well, I stopped reading their stuff, because their articles have absolutely no heart. That’s what I’m all about: heart. When you’re putting yourself completely out there, some people will find it uncomfortable. Some people will hate you. Some people will find it entertaining, and worth a minute of your time. Regardless of which one you are, I’m glad you took the time to read this, and I hope I’ll see you next week. As always, thank you from the bottom of my heart for reading.

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Blue Moon’s Triumphant Return

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Hello again!

Let me ask a question: When is Jund Midrange bad in Modern?

The easy answer is when something like Tron or U/W Emeria is going way over the deck's main game plan. Against decks that are resilient enough in the face of hand disruption and have large enough threats to ignore Gofy and friends. Midrange decks in general struggle against these go big strategies. Conversely, certain builds of Jund can struggle with the hyper aggressive decks as well.

The Eldrazi menace is in a weird grey area that can do both. The Eldrazi Mimic draws can easily run someone over, while the Oblivion Sower into Ulamog game plan requires separate cards to deal with. There may be builds of Jund with excessive amounts of land destruction or board wipes so that they can swing the matchup in their favor either way, but then the deck loses to other archetypes in the format. Jund players cannot simply jam their deck full of Fulminator Mages, Damnations, and Terminates and expect to reliably beat infect or burn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

As Jund (and even grixis) decks move away from the Kolaghan's Command and Liliana of the Veil grindy 2 for 1 game plan (or as these builds start losing), artifacts can increase dramatically in play-ability. The reason Blue Moon hasn't been around a lot recently is because of this single card: Kolaghan's Command. Outside of 2 for 1-ing with any given modes, rebuying Gofys or Scary threats, hitting Vedalken Shackles or Batterskull are huge backbreakers. The Blue Moon player can never tap out for these things, and the best answer the blue deck has is Dispel, which is easy to strip away with hand disruption. The good news is our new Eldrazi overlords have pushed people away from Kolaghan's Command. Similarly true for Electrolyze, these cards are simply too slow and too low impact against the deck playing 4/4s and 5/5s in the first few turns.

The big plus to playing Blue Moon is, even if they ban Eye of Ugin (let's be serious, when they do) the deck doesn't lose anything unless Blood Moon happens to go along with it. Which I don't see happening. Blood Moon is a card that doesn't end the game by itself. If people want to play around it they can. They can even construct their deck in a way that doesn't lose to the card at all. Plus, it is at least a little bit of a safety net for when this kind of thing happens in the future. The main problem is when Eye of Ugin is banned, people will likely start gravitating back towards Kolaghan's Command.

This is the deck I piloted to a Top 4 at SCG Regionals in Minnesota:

Blue Moon

Creatures

2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
4 Snapcaster Mage

Spells

1 Batterskull
2 Vedalken Shackles
4 Blood Moon
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Burst Lightning
3 Electrolyze
4 Serum Visions
4 Mana Leak
4 Remand

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Polluted Delta
1 Wandering Fumarole
1 Sulfur Falls
2 Steam Vents
7 Island
2 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Batterskull
1 Pithing Needle
3 Spreading Seas
2 Dispel
2 Negate
1 Keranos, God of Storms
3 Anger of the Gods
1 Shattering Spree
1 Vandalblast

The Good:

The full eight counter spells were great, as I didn't play against Burn all day, but against most matchups Remand and Mana Leak are great cards to have on the play. On the draw, cutting Remand happened a lot, but if you played Twin that's nothing new. There really isn't much else to say about these cards. If Burn and Affinity are showing up in lower numbers, these cards will remain reasonable choices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pia and Kiran Nalaar

A big part of me was skeptical about this card. I've been a big advocate of it in standard and after playing just a few games with it I could tell it was going to fit right in. Far too many games came down to the thopter tokens dealing 10 points of damage to put the opponent into burn range. Other times, blocking a lifelinking creature and chucking the thopter at their face was perfect for racing. Very often it was a meaningful 3 for 1 after it resolved.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vedalken Shackles

This card was very strong- locking people out of some games more so than Blood Moon. Multiple games I had opponents move to the discard step because they didn't want to play their creatures into countermagic and Shackles. The problem with it is that it is nearly dead against Tron and other random combo decks. It's power level may outweigh the dead card in those matchups, however, as it is a soft lock against plenty of strategies. Moving it to the sideboard is something to consider over the coming weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Burst Lightning

Burst Lightning also did double work. Finishing most games out without Batterskull or Shackles was a challenge. Sometimes Snapcaster Mage + Kicked Burst Lightning was just what the doctor ordered. This card was exactly the card the deck needed for the weekend. Nickel and Diming most opponents was a reasonable expectation with this build and being able to finish off people who fetched greedily was great. That said, If Eldrazi decks remain top dog, this card is on the chopping block.

The Bad:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Electrolyze

Saying this card is bad is a little unfair, because it has spots it is impressive in. However, the majority of times the card was dealing two damage to the face and drawing a card. This is simply too low of an impact. If you expect a room full of people playing 4/4's on turn two, its an easy cut. The problem is, Eldrazi SkySpawner, Eldrazi Obligator and Eldrazi Mimic are great targets. This logic is a trap. If they have their Eye of Ugin or Eldrazi Temple draw, there isn't a realistic chance Electrolyze will keep up. Some of the appeal of a deck like Blue Moon is it's consistency, which comes from the cards that say 'Draw a card' on them, making Electrolyze somewhat of a necessary evil.

The Eldrazi Matchup:

I played against Eldrazi once in the swiss at Regionals and beat it. However, since then more people have acquired the necessary cards and the Pro Tour information has disseminated enough for Eldrazi to be crowned as the actual top dog of the format. As people try to figure out how to beat the deck and it's new forms they will undoubtedly try a shell similar to this. Blood Moon is acceptable against them, but it cannot be the first card played. A turn two Remand or Mana Leak is crucial. On the play against non-Eldrazi Mimic versions, Mana leak is your friend.

Going forward, Roast, Flame Slash, Harvest Pyre and counterspells are likely necessary inclusions. The hard part comes in closing out a game. I've had some luck with Vedalken Shackles doing the heavy lifting, but it is very slow and hard to tap out for when behind at all. If you are worried about their hyper aggressive draws, a card like Blasphemous act may be just the card we are looking for.

Also, I've been advocating for Chalice of the Void for months. As it turns out, people should listen to me more often! But if the Chalice of the Void versions of the Eldrazi deck are popular. Playing 10-16 one drops isn't a great place to be. Having access to a true board sweeper may become necessary as time goes on. Whelming Wave, Crush of Tentacles, and other blue sweepers are far too slow and bounce our Blood Moon. Aetherspouts and Aetherize just let them replay their hand. Once again, I find myself recommending a few copies of Blasphemous act.

Blue Moon post Eldrazi Takeover

Creatures

2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
4 Snapcaster Mage

Spells

2 Batterskull
2 Roast
4 Serum Visions
2 Cryptic Command
2 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
3 Remand
2 Spell Snare
2 Vedalken Shackles
4 Blood Moon

Lands

8 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Wandering Fumarole

Sideboard

1 Batterskull
1 Harvest Pyre
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Dispel
2 Negate
3 Spreading Seas
2 Vandalblast
2 Blasphemous act

The changes are slight, but important. Land number 23 is necessary to cast Batterskull in a reasonable time frame. Cutting the Burst Lightnings wasn't easy, but likely also necessary for higher impact cards if Eldrazi decks continue to show up. This helps make us more resilient to Chalice of the Void as an side bonus.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blasphemous act

There aren't alot of speculation targets in these lists. If I could offer anything it would be about Blasphemous act. The card has casual appeal with Stuffy Doll and Boros Reckoner, as well as being fringe playable in spots like this. The card is at it's reasonable bottom at the moment. Even with a return to Innistrad set on the horizon, I doubt they would waste design space by reprinting this one.

That's all for this week! Go Blood Moon some people!

-Ryan Hipp

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