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I've always been something of a pop culture buff, and that translates into how I approach Magic as a hobby. There's no piece of information too obscure for me to log away in the deep recesses of my mind to bore somebody with over a beer. A particularly interesting piece of Magic history has been unearthed from the basement of Barry Reich this week. The Misprint Guy has procured piles of paperwork from Spectral Chaos- a set that was never released and ultimately served as the inspiration for Invasion block.
Barry Reich is a long time friend of Richard Garfield, and one of the first people to playtest Magic. Spectral Chaos is a set that Barry designed shortly after the release of Alpha, which included mutli-colored mechanics such as domain and a sixth basic land type until most recently referred to as "Barry's land". Video of The Misprint Guy unveiling some of the paperwork he acquire from Barry can be found here, and the Reddit discussion here. According to the discussion on reddit, a more in-depth look at the actual set will be released in about two weeks time.
I'm excited to see what brilliant design we missed, and what mistakes we avoided by this set never being released.
![[MTGO] A Cube Built for Johnny](https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Legendary-Cube-Prize-Pack-dk.png)
Since its success at SCG Charlotte in the hands of Joseph Herrera, Jund Midrange has continued to establish itself as a formidable format pillar. Taking advantage of the relative absence of RG Tron, Jund has slid into a prominent position in the format, preying on Affinity, Burn, and other midrange and Collected Company decks. Benefiting from widespread hate against Grixis strategies, Jund has witnessed its natural enemies fall by the wayside while it quietly puts up strong results. The format has almost completely reverted to the conditions that let Jund dominate a few months ago, and until the rest of the format adjusts I believe Jund is here to stay.
Tron has seen decreased play, which hurts Twin slightly as Tron is a solid matchup. Grixis Control has also been on the decline, which is great for Twin as Grixis Control is tough. Jund Midrange has climbed to the top as well, which is bad news for Twin. Despite all these shifts, Twin is still putting up results, which tells us two things. One, which we knew already, is the fact that Twin is powerful and consistent, and can almost always be considered a great deck choice. Two (which is based on One), is that you can always count on Twin to show up at events. Similar to Burn, you will have to face this deck at least a couple times over the course of a long event. Don’t be caught unprepared!
We’ve seen it plenty of times before, except this time we’ve actually gone a pretty long stretch where Affinity and Burn have remained at the top of the pile. This is due primarily to the Modern offseason; were we seeing Burn on top every weekend we could expect more backlash. Instead, the events have been spaced out over a few weeks, which contributes to this narrative of “Burn isn’t that bad, I don’t need to worry.” Trust me, one Feed the Clan in your board is nowhere near enough if you are soft to this deck. The classic “everyone else will play Affinity hate” doesn’t apply unless there’s widespread discussion about the dominance of a certain deck, which just hasn’t been happening recently. Obviously I can’t give blanket advice, as sideboards are deck and strategy specific, but before you register your list this weekend take a second and Ponder whether that Engineered Explosives wouldn’t be better off as a Feed the Clan or something similar.
Grixis Midrange is relatively unexplored territory at this point, which explains a lot of variation among the lists we’ve been seeing. More Thought Scour/Gurmag Angler? Eight planeswalkers? Lots of removal? The Grim Lavamancer is sweet, and lets us abuse our Thought Scours a little more (as we’ve trimmed on delve creatures and Snapcaster Mage) but I don’t anticipate it being great against an expected field of Jund Midrange and Amulet Bloom. Instead, I’ve added in another Liliana of the Veil, which gives us more power and resiliency against those aiming to fight us with graveyard hate.
Pia and Kiran Nalaar don’t singlehandedly solve the Lingering Souls issues for us, but I haven’t seen Lingering Souls in forever and our Abzan matchup should be good enough that we don’t need the help. Besides, Izzet Staticaster is poor against everything else in that matchup besides Lingering Souls and Dark Confidant and probably isn’t even worth bringing in, so cutting it removes the temptation. Instead, we’ve got a third Dispel for the blue mirrors, Burn, and literally every other deck that is playing important instants. A third Liliana of the Veil pushes us closer to Michael Majors’ territory (which is where I want to be against a field like the one I expect in Pittsburgh).
Pillar of Flame helps us on the small removal front and makes up for the loss of Grim Lavamancer and Darkblast. The fact that it kills Kitchen Finks and opposing Jace, Vryn's Prodigy pushes it way over the top in my mind. Tribute to Hunger is some pretty sweet tech that I think we have room to employ here, and feels absolutely amazing when we can flash it back with Snapcaster Mage or Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. Tribute to Hunger is best when we can kill all the creatures, which is slightly more difficult in this list than other Grixis Control decks that played 8+ removal spells. Once we start adding Liliana of the Veil and Rise // Fall into the mix I think we’re back to parity however.
![[MTGO] Scrap Savant: Building with Bulk to Find Hidden Gems](https://www.quietspeculation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Scrap-Mastery1.jpg)
The best piece of advice I can give with the Grand Prix being this weekend is you should have your deck chosen already and you should only be adjusting small things. Tweaking numbers, fixing slight awkwardness, and mastering the deck is all you should be doing this week. If you are still trying to figure out what deck to play, play something you know well, because you are not going to get the needed reps in with any new deck with less than three days until the Grand Prix. Even if you played games constantly from this moment until the Grand Prix, it is likely that some number of those games would be sub-optimal due to you trying to learn the deck and then master certain aspects of it within such a compact period of time. Decide your deck and start your more technical prep, and do not walk into the Grand Prix with less than a week’s practice with your deck. I implore you.
There are numerous reasons I believe taking Amulet Bloom is the right choice, some of which I mentioned last week. In short, it has one of the most explosive starts of any deck with turn two kills and massive advantage through Primeval Titan arriving much earlier than people expect. In addition, the deck has a very high skill ceiling, so the number of lines you can take is massive. I enjoy decks like this since they reward practice and mastery and I love solitairing the deck and grinding out games to gain experience. For me, this is a deck with insane power level that rewards a deep understanding of how the deck interacts with itself and the rest of the format. I suspect that if people had to write why they are playing their GP Pittsburgh deck on their deck registration form, the majority would consist of card availability, comfort, experience with the deck, and a few that said their deck was the best deck in the format. I feel like I can safely say that Amulet is the best deck for this Grand Prix, and that's why I've been practicing the deck extensively.
Similar to knowing what deck you are playing for the Grand Prix, can you specifically state what each card in your sideboard does to improve specific matchups? Are there cards floating in those last one or two slots that are filler you could optimize? You need to test them and find out what they actually should be. With each little improvement, you move closer to finding the optimal list while chancing over-tweaking, so be careful not to let your testing get too inbred or circular. This is why I like thinking about this process over a longer period of time and test each slot if I can until I figure out what cards are hidden gems and which deserve to remain hidden.
Can your deck beat Burn, GBx, UR Twin, Affinity, Infect, Zoo, Tron, etc.? What matchups are very hard game one and what matchups do you need to dedicate more sideboard slots for? Why are they hard and can we adjust play to improve game one? Most importantly, do you know how to approach each match up? What is your role and does it change as the game goes on? Once someone plays their second land, if you do not know what you are against and how to play against it, there is a good chance your opponent has the advantage. Running through this gauntlet to figure these things out is a very wise use of time for this last week before the Grand Prix. However, it does have the downside of potentially exposing your deck's weaknesses and tempting the dreaded audible that works out poorly so often it is the subject of a Charles Dickens story.
People feel comfortable with these decks and as I mentioned some of the most common advice for a large event is play what you know. In a format such as Modern, not knowing how your deck operates on every level and in situation is a quick way to be playing side events on Sunday. Even though the deck you know best may not be the best deck for the event, at this point, learning a new deck from scratch is not helping your win percentage any more than playing old faithful hurts it. With that said, I want to echo my article from last week that most of the decks I listed above are going to need a solid overhaul to handle the influx of Zoo and Knight of the Reliquary specifically, along with the big mana decks that have started showing up more often. Go in knowing your plan and how to beat their plan and you will at least fight at maximum, while going in blind folded to the format is a disadvantage no one can win a 15 round tournament with.
With everything set for the tournament itself, let us talk about small things you can do during the Grand Prix to improve your performance. These are tips that people hear frequently, but like most great advice, it is not followed very often. The most obvious is to make sure you have all the cards you will need, your travel arrangements are set, and you have pre-registered. I have seen some horror stories of sleeping in friend’s cars and this time of year, a bed is a lot warmer and more restful. You really don't want to have to buy cards at a premium on-site, especially when availability is not guaranteed. Don't leave arriving at the tournament ready to play to chance.
Drinking lots of water helps to keep you focused and often allows you to retain that mental edge that tends to dull through a long day of intense Magic. Dehydration is your enemy and will kill your concentration. I often carry a 16-ounce water bottle and try to refill it every round. Yes, you will have to pee an excessive amount of times, but especially since there is not time to get food throughout most of a Grand Prix, keeping yourself hydrated and focused can be huge. In the same vein, buying some trail mix or other snack food that is calorie dense before the event is a good idea for those long rounds where your blood sugar and focus can dip if you do not eat anything. In combination with a constant intake of water, you can improve your focus throughout the event and avoid that sluggish tired feeling that leads to misplays late in the day during the most crucial rounds of the day.
If you walk in with two byes and every match is “Five more matches until Day Two…” when you eventually reach seven wins, you are likely to play worse and lose yourself within the context of individual matches. A Grand Prix is 15 individual rounds against skilled players, and looking at the big picture is a good way to trip yourself up and fall into the classic trap-game example from most sports. Do not forget about the game at hand because you only need to win one of the next two matches to make Day Two, that is a recipe for a 6-3 record.
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One of the biggest criticisms of metagame data is that it doesn't always represent good players and good decks. We don't "weigh" non-Grand Prix/Open finishes (we do weigh the GP/Open ones), so the Jund list earning gold at a 200 person PPTQ is treated the same as the winning 
BGx is everywhere. It's the most-played deck supertype at 18.5% and saw a collective 6% point jump from the October metagame into the RPTQs. Abzan had a bigger jump relative to its October share, but Jund still pulled out a major increase for a deck that already had sizable numbers. I'll talk about this more below, but expect serious BGx opposition at Pittsburgh.
With the notable exception of Affinity, all the linear decks retreated during the RPTQs. Infect took a truly staggering hit (-4% relative to October), but Gruul Zoo, Burn, Merfolk, Bogles, RG Tron, and others all saw decreases around the -1% range. Astute readers will also see another deck that escaped the linear decline, but I'll save that "vigorous" contender for my predictions below... This is overall good news, because it suggests the best players are leaning towards interactive builds instead of slinging whatever turn three deck they can get their hands on.
Company decks keep proving they are here to stay in Modern. Although Elves (not shown) lagged behind the rest at a measly .9% RPTQ share, both Abzan Company and Naya Company were going strong in the 2.5%-3% range. Pittsburgh is sure to see these decks, especially if aggro players adopt a more resilient stance by moving towards Company and away from blitz approaches.
In Jund we trust! Proving that Lightning Bolt and Tarmogoyf are exactly where you want to be in interactive Modern, Jund plowed through the RPTQ circuit en route to its 12.1% share. Speaking of "plowing", that about describes Jund's trajectory from September through the present. The deck has smashed through the competition from its 7.9% share in September to an 8.1% share at SCG States. Next it was the 8.7% share at the end of October, and now we're looking at the RPTQ's 12.1%. I'm heartened that this movement happened alongside a general uptick in linear decks: it points to Jund's adaptability and power in hostile metagames.
Even if Jund was overrepresented going into the RPTQ Top 8 (more pilots bringing it in the first place), that still points to a big Jund showing at Pittsburgh. It suggests good players are bringing Jund into uncertain and potentially overly-linear metagmes, which is much healthier than slinging your own fast deck in an attempt to outgun the enemy. Bolt and Goyf are big reasons for this, but another underappreciated hero is surely Inquisition of Kozilek. When you have no idea whether to expect Gruul Zoo, Infect, Bogles, Burn, Affinity, etc., Inquisition has your back. It's no coincidence Grixis decks are turning to the powerful and painless discard spell to beat the heat too.
Expect to see lots of Jund at the Grand Prix (especially Day 2), and expect those Jund decks to be tailored to handle aggro. This is going to come in both the sideboard and in the maindeck. Game 1 Kitchen Finks is a definite possibility, and I'd bet the farm on Huntmaster of the Fells showing up in Jund's 60. Dark Confidant will probably stick around, just because he's such an easy swap in games 2-3 if needed, but the removal suite is going to tend cheap (Bolt, Decay, Terminate). Sweepers will abound in the board. If you're feeling next-level, you can get ahead of this trend by playing cards and decks that blank Jund's interactions, or by going over the top (see the next prediction...). For example, a well-constructed Abzan deck could definitely enjoy strong position going into the event, even if you wouldn't expect a lot of people to play Abzan in the first place.
I'm confident Jund is going to do a great job at checking all those Cranial Platings, Wild Nacatls, and Become Immenses. Then again, I'm also confident a few decks might slip through Jund's hate arsenal. The best candidate for this is Amulet Bloom. We're already seeing Bloom's success in a big way throughout the RPTQ numbers. The deck saw a huge jump from its October share of 4.1% to an RPTQ-high of 7.3%, which continues a two-month trajectory that took us from September (3.7%) into SCG States (4.4%). This persistent trend suggests Amulet Bloom is legitimately well-positioned to cause damage at Pittsburgh, and the aggro-occupied Jund mages won't be in a good place to stop it.
The Modern community has been bombarded with pros and players alike raving about how good this deck is, all based on test data (at best) or anecdotal evidence (at worst). We haven't seen a shred of real metagame data to suggest Bloom's dominance since spring, so these opinions often come off as alarmism and hype. The recent numbers, particularly those at the RPTQ, indicate the hype might finally be taking root in reality. We can certainly identify deck developments that might play into this. Bloom decks have embraced a cantrip-heavy (Serum Visions and the Storm throwback Sleight of Hand) version, valuing redundancy and games 2-3 power over a turn two win. Temple of Mystery is even seeing play, a card with obvious bounceland synergy. If the deck could succeed at the RPTQ scene, despite the player caliber and being a known entity, its Pittsburgh prospects are excellent.
As usual, Modern's best single-card defense against Amulet Bloom is Blood Moon. Also as usual, Modern's best policeman deck against Amulet Bloom is UR Twin, which is incidentally the best Moon deck in Modern's top-tier. This puts us in an interesting metagame position where Twin is angled to stop Bloom, but where Bloom has also shown considerable game against Twin: it's worrisome that Bloom can put up a 7% metagame share in an RPTQ series that was also 15% Twin (most of which was UR Twin specifically). This could hint at Bloom's developing a better gameplan in its worst matchup. If so, that would mean Amulet is well-positioned to punch into the top tables even through hate.
Time to go bold or go home. If I had to roll the dice for one deck at Pittsburgh, it would be for Scapeshift. Jeff Hoogland has been 
Scapeshift is that rare combo deck which can play a very solid anti-aggro game, perform a serviceable control imitation, and rock the proactive, out-of-nowhere combo win. It has the huge added bonus of blanking a swath of removal spells clogging the field, and an ability to maindeck serious sweepers in Anger of the Gods and even the almighty Damnation in Bring to Light versions. Trevor Holmes already 
I'm going out on the limb for Scapeshift because I think it has the right mix of proactivity and reactivity to exploit holes in the current metagame. It's proactive enough to close out a game fast with the coveted turn 4-5 Scapeshift, which is something a stalled linear deck can't answer. It also plays the removal and sweepers to survive into those critical turns on more than a cointoss. Moreover, the Bring to Light version has ample tools to go over the top of midrange, particularly whenmidrange is geared to fight aggro. Here's hoping for Scapeshift to make the cut into the later rounds, but don't be too disappointed if the dream never materializes.
