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Deck Overview- Standard Dimir Dragons

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If you looked at the Top 8 player profiles from Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir then you may have noticed that most of the players only put up 7 wins in the Standard portion of the tournament. The tournament structure really rewards players with strong limited records, enabling players with 5-1 or 6-0 draft records to intentionally draw the last two rounds of constructed. Meanwhile, other players are battling all 10 rounds of Standard, making the list of 24-27 point decks posted by WotC a very valuable resource for anybody looking for the best decks from the PT.

The most winning deck at the Pro Tour was blue/black control splashing Dragonlord Ojutai. The Channel Fireball list was similar to Andrew Ohlschwager's Top 8 list, though he had Icefall Regent where they didn't and a few numbers on cards were different in his list as well. Meanwhile, Josh Utter-Leyton went 9-1 in the Standard portion of the tournament with this build:

Dimir Dragon Control feat. Ojutai

creatures

3 Dragonlord Ojutai
2 Silumgar, the Drifting Death

spells

1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
2 Thoughtseize
2 Crux of Fate
3 Anticipate
1 Disdainful Stroke
4 Silumgar's Scorn
2 Bile Blight
2 Ultimate Price
3 Hero's Downfall
2 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Dissolve
4 Dig Through Time

lands

2 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
4 Temple of Enlightenment
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Dismal Backwater
4 Polluted Delta
1 Flooded Strand
2 Caves of Koilos
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Island
2 Swamp

sideboard

2 Thoughtseize
2 Bile Blight
1 Ultimate Price
1 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Negate
2 Dragonlord's Prerogative
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Dragonlord Silumgar

PV also played the deck to an 8-2 record and has been singing its praises on Twitter.

pv

In many ways, Haven of the Spirit Dragon is the glue of this deck. It helps generate white mana for Ojutai, which the deck wants to run light on. The deck comically plays a Flooded Strand without a Plains to find. The Haven also enables you to play only one Ugin, but to play it multiple times.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haven of the Spirit Dragon

On the one hand, a hyper-aggressive red deck won the Pro Tour. On the other, the deck that the pros are praising and that put up the best results in the swiss portion of the tournament is a grindy control deck. Odds are that people will put more weight on Dang's performance and metagame accordingly for next week, but it'll be very interesting to watch Standard develop from here.

Legacy Cube

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Like many other players, I love to cube draft. I've had my own cube for a while now and I'm currently on the hunt to finish foiling it out. Many of my Magic finance endeavors lately have been in pursuit of this goal. The full foiling may not happen for a while, but I am getting ever closer to it.

Assembling the necessary 6-8 players at the shop or my house can prove tricky sometimes so I also draft the Magic Online Cube as well. Although I disagree with many card choices in that Cube, it is still lots of fun to draft. In fact, my kids even like it when I draft it so they can look at all the neat cards that are in the packs.

There is a lot of content available out on the web too, so if you don't like Magic Online or you don't have time to play yourself, there are plenty of videos available for you to watch other well known players and how they play. I watch a lot of different videos like this during my breaks at work or in the spare minutes I have throughout the day.

I especially like watching cube drafts because they're fun. My kids like watching cube drafts because they are lots of fun too. My issue with most cube draft videos though, is that all of the pros that do the draft videos all try to draft Constructed control decks. Cube is supposed to be a fun casual, competitive format and control decks are certainly viable, but there are so many cool, powerful things you can do in cube draft other than just a boring old control deck.

Take Jacob Wilson's video recently posted on Channelfireball.com. I like watching Jacob's videos because he makes some interesting choices, but this is they type of thing I'm talking about where he forces himself into a blue controlling deck. In this video I agree with his color selection as well as many of his picks, but when he passed Bitterblossom, my heart sank a little bit. Check it out, here. Even if he didn't go the direction I would have, he still ended up with a cool deck and some interesting games.

What I'm getting at is something more like what Sam Pardee did recently by forcing Mono-Black. It was fun and pretty good too and that's what Cube Draft is all about. Here's Sam's video.

So, what does everyone think? Do you like watching the same type of Cube Draft videos every time the format comes back into rotation online? Would you rather see players drafting more sweet, yet successful archetypes? What do you like to draft when you Cube? Let's start the discussion in the comments below.

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Mike Lanigan

Mike Lanigan is high school math teacher by day and a shop owner by night. His tournament grinding may have slowed a little, but his love of the game has not. Mike's goal is to bring you a mix of perspectives from shop-owner insights to finance tips to metagame shifts and everything in between.

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Insider: PT:DTK Creates New Financial Positions

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What a phenomenal weekend for Standard.Ā Magic looked so good this past weekend. Let me count the ways:

  • Mono-Red dueled blue control, a time-honored matchup.
  • Jeskai Ascendancy combo didn't T8, saving us from boring combo rounds.
  • Old legends and new players emerged into the T8. I don't know whether Adrian Sullivan's first T8 is more exciting than a 19 year old getting his first shot at glory.
  • Elder Dragons! Plural!
  • Decks that embraced in-set synergies (like Dragons Matter) vs. piles of good stuff Abzan that we've seen before.

Normally I write about the emergent decks in sections devoted to the deck, but this week I'll break it down to the cards a little more specifically. Let's get started.

Mono-Red Continues to Wreck

I think Devotion will move cards more than UB Control with a win, because a significant number of people want to crush UB Control in their own metagames because they hate it. Having said that, I am incredible at jinxing myself so I reckon that means Mono-Red will just sweep the show.

-me, yesterday

What is Mono-Red good at? Punishing slow starts and mulligans.

That's exactly what happened in the T8. Let's be frank--Dang had some very easy games, and that's because his list is oriented toward maximizing damage in the early game. This was in the face of decks packing quad Bile Blight to knock out Hordeling Outburst, for instance. Would Dang perform as well if we re-ran this T8 without forced sideboarding mulligans from his opponents? It's quite possible, since he's on the most aggressive deck around.

I expect even more people to play this deck in the next few weeks. If you've followed my coverage of past events, I've been a broken record about how cheap decks pick up easy fans. This is a very cheap deck, even given the manabase. One could cut Atarka's Commands to loosen the manabase and save $120 before heading to FNM to give it a spin. There's a clear line of how to invest in the deck and upgrade it later.

That said, have you looked at his list? Did you see how many M15 cards are in there? They will rotate in October along with the Theros block cards. Granted, there's only a handful of Theros, but this deck gets positively gutted by the loss of Goblin Rabblemaster, Stoke the Flames, Lightning Strike and even the lowly Foundry Street Denizen.

I don't expect we'll see such good burn and cheap red dudes going into fall, so this is not a deck to invest in for the long haul.

Actions: Zurgo is still a good pickup. He Dashed four times against Adrian Sulllivan, who could only look on his sorcery-speed removal and weep. I still like Roast and Hall of Triumph is currently pretty darned cheap.

On the other hand, Mana Confluence is a steep buy-in. The prime question is whether Atarka's Command will continue to climb. I was bearish on this card last week--it's $4.75 now and I think it can see a few dollars more.

Why? Well, cheap(ish) decks have this problem where they don't stay cheap for long. Even something packed with uncommons will end up going up in price. The Command isn't particularly thrilling; it seems to do about 6 damage on average, but in the boring form of "bolt you, overrun."

I realize how entitled it sounds to say that 6 damage for RG is unspectacular, by the way.

Early HypeĀ Rarely Pans Out

In the early hours of the Standard portion on Friday, we saw a Chromanticore deck with Soulflayer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromanticore
There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulflayer

Yes, the dream was realized several times on camera. The deck looked really fun to play, for starters. On the QS Chatroom, we discussed why we were staying away from it. The deck really needed to pan out more before most Insiders felt comfortable buying in.Ā Several rounds later, the Manticores were no longer flying around.

What happened here? Well, Magic finance has gotten popular enough that people have hair triggers on buying into cards. They don't want to miss the next big spike or secret breakout. Thus, just seeing a card on camera is enough to get people's envy machines working, making them terrified of losing out on yet another run-up.

Part of what we try to do at QS is counsel people when to hold back and save money, and this was a clear time to wait. The end result is that neither card has gone up by more than about ten cents. A dud.

On another topic, we saw Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor doing a lot of work on camera. The hype train got right back on the rails when people saw Den Protector recursion for infinite blockers.

The thing that many forgot was that the player doing that recursion still lost their game. This format has too incredible of a top end to reward burdling and durdling when there are dragons to be cast. A similar thing for Deathmist Raptor--being a Mythic made it look tempting, but the card was already expensive going into the weekend.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Den Protector
There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathmist Raptor

It's best to consider how much you want to make, either in percentage profit or sheer dollars, before moving on a card. Making $4 on each Raptor is great until that profit gets swallowed up in transactional fees. Neither Raptor nor Den Protector made a T8 showing and I feel confident that they'll both drop in price soon.

Actions: Give a hyped card time to prove itself, even if that just takes a few hours. If you've got Den Protectors or Raptors, this is a good time to sell them.

Take your pick of UB Control

Fully half of the T8 was playing Polluted Deltas.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

That's a marked change from Standard of years past, where we'd have UB or Esper show up on the fringes for a few weeks and then melt away again. You can go two ways with the deck.

Adrian Sullivan's list skips creatures entirely for a Planeswalker-centric approach. They gain a lot of incremental advantage over uncontested turns, and UB is the deck to do that with. He also plays a trio of Perilous Vault, which give him removal against Silumgar, the Drifting Death. He faced an unlucky turn of events vs. Mono-Red that put him away, but his deck looks oriented to stopping that strategy well.

On the other end, we've got decks packing Silumgar's Scorn and a handful of dragons. These decks look like where the real power of the format lies. When Shota picks up creatures, we should pay attention. Turning the Scorn into a raw Counterspell was amazing all weekend. On top of that, the Dragon decks have Dragonlord's Prerogative postboard to rip off uncounterable card draw in the mirror.

I expect a lot of UB Control in the next few weeks and the attendant counter-strategies to try to beat it. That means more Mono-Red and more Devotion.

Actions: Silumgar's Scorn looks cheap at $0.50 right now. Ugin is also going to hold his price for a long time, due to his presence across many archetypes. Icefall Regent saw a modest bump on MTGO and shows up in half the UB decks. I see this going from $1.30 to $2.50, or even up to $4, but it's risky because it also really looks like a bad draft leftover.

Dragonlord Silumgar will remain a solid role-player in the deck for weeks to come. He jumped about a dollar yesterday to $7.15 and I think this dragon has $10 on him soon. It's just such a versatile creature, especially because it can answer devastating Planeswalkers from opponents. That's something that UB Control has had a devil of a time doing, so this opens up an entirely new method of solving that problem.

Atarka and the Unbearable Enormity of Being

Dragonlord Atarka romped across the T8, showing up in both Devotion decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Atarka

Strasky angled to make See the Unwritten hit the Dragonlord, while Hendriks was content to play Genesis Hydras alongside the giant dragon. A Bogardan Hellkite this is not, but geez--it's an 8/8 flying trampler, so there's a lot still going on here. We saw it pick off plenty of monsters over the course of this weekend, even getting Whipped out.

Atarka has climbed from $11 to $17 and is probably going to go up to $21 before it stabilizes. I justify this reasoning because Devotion is a go-to deck to fight UB Control. It gets huge and has a bunch of threats that laugh at Bile Blight. Atarka is going to be a premiere part of the list, especially because it'll knock out a monster or two from Abzan along the way. It's not good against UB Control, but it shores up all the other matchups.

Actions: The ship has sailed on picking up Dragonlord Atarka, but don't forget the rest of the deck. Whisperwood Elemental is $14 right now and is another solid $20 card. It feels like it's worth paying money for the way Elspeth, Sun's ChampionĀ did. It feels like a mythic that should command a good price because of its effect on the board.

People also seem to have forgotten about Polukranos, who sits at $5. That hydra briefly hit $15 and can double up again when people remember how insane it is with a Nykthos on the board. Xenagos is also about $6.50, having dropped from $18. When you sit down and look at these RG Devotion decks, they have an awful lot of orange rarity symbols.

I May Have Been Too Harsh On Courser of Kruphix

Last week, I lamented his demise. This week, twelve show up in the T8 to demonstrate my folly. It was everywhere this weekend, causing "failure to reveal draw" game losses along the way. Courser is still a monster of a card, and it looks more important in an emerging era of ramping. It'll stop Mono-Red and it's potent in all ways against UB Control. So, horseman, I am sorry.

Actions: Know that the pro circuit favors Abzan control more heartily than the SCG circuit does. Also, Strasky's deck has a playset of these, Rattleclaw Mystic and Sylvan Caryatid. That man never wants to run out of mana ramp.

Siege Rhinos Still Abound

Marco Ccaammiilluuzzii's Abzan Control deck looks tantalizing, yes? He gets to brawl with Siege Rhinos and Tasigur, he's got Fleecemane Lion on the board, and he can also turn into a three color Planeswalker list. I love that maindeck Ugin, for example.

Eight mana is a distinct possibility in Standard right now. He can cut right and go for Fleecemanes against fast aggro. He can switch leftĀ toboard in problematic Planeswalkers against control. In any case, he's using Elspeth to spam tokens.

Abzan is going to remain a popular strategy and this is a big divergence from what we've seen. He's put aside the Rakshasa Deathdealers. There's no Sidisi, Undead Vizier or Whip of Erebos around. In their place, just efficient Planeswalkers, spells and creatures.

Actions: Elspeth is $11 right now and I like her going forward. I'd hold off on buying them up until we see next week's results. Widespread adoption is the only way this out-of-print 'Walker sees a price boost.

Quick Hits Before I Sign Off

  • Jason Chung's R/G list is really cool but I also beat that topic to death last week, so I wanted to spare you a rehashing when there was so much else to talk about.
  • Still no Mono-Blue Devotion--I am not going to bother tracking this any more...
  • Nykthos has quietly doubled in price since March, to $6. Strong candidate for a $10 card again.
  • Does anyone else feel like the mana bases we've got right now are so good that we're spoiled? UB Control gets Ā a full twelve U/B lands.
  • Pearl Lake Ancient punches through a bunch of the UB Control elements, but probably still loses to an Ugin.
  • Two copies of Dragonlord Ojutai in Andrew Ohlschwager's otherwise-UB Control deck. Ojutai never seemed great in the mirror but cleans up on Abzan. I'm not confident about it going forward, though.

As always, let me know what you think. If it happens next week, we'll be here to talk about it.

-Doug

Ponder Shuffle Episode 8- PT Dragons Predictions

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Ryan and Jens discuss the state of Standard and what they expect from Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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[MTGO] 1 Year, 100 Tix March Report

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Welcome to the third report of the 100 Tix 1 Year project!

25% of the time allocated for this project hasĀ passed. After a very strong start in January, things have slowed down a bit, as sustaining a 50% growth in the long run is fairly unrealistic.

Nonetheless, the trend is still upward and I finished the month of March withĀ a bankroll more valuable than it was after February.

This week, the next unlocked Insider article ofĀ the Nine Months of Portfolio Management series is part four--M14 and Core Set Rares.

This article set the basis for my strategy to speculate on core set rares. ItĀ paid off very well with M15 rares, andĀ I expect it to be usefulĀ again with Magic Origins this summer andĀ theĀ "100 Tix 1 Year" portfolio.

Before we begin March'sĀ report, be sure to check out the following links (if you haven't already):

The Numbers

The upward trend continues on,Ā and March was better than February.

As of March 31st, my account is valued at 177.6 Tix, a +9.6% increase this month.

Summary of the Specs

This month I got rid of some Modern specs with a decent profit.Ā I was looking to close them all in March, but the prices definitely didn't rebound as expected for all of them.

I sold Bonfire of the Damned, Eternal Witness, Pact of Negation and Ethersworn Canonist with a good margin, but failed nicely on Skullcrack. As they are still quite low compared to their peak, I'm still waiting to sell Figure of Destiny, Manamorphose and others.Ā I currently have enough free Tix so I can afford waiting onĀ better prices without missing good spec opportunities.

My Standard specs also saw some movement. I sold Xenagos and cut my losses on that one. More profitable were Temple of Enlightenment and Firedrinker Satyr. I also bought a few playsets of two FRF cards--Temporal Trespass and Ghastly Conscription--hoping to turn these into a quick gain with redemption of FRF sets being available, which haven'tĀ really worked out as anticipated. Ā I also invested in Courser of Kruphix and a new copy of the UW Temple.

I sold my first Pauper spec, Exclude. 80% in less than a month is a very good return.

My other Pauper positions are also doing well,Ā and this format is a greater interest to me since cards are "cheap" but can see big variations.

Right afterĀ the end of the Rise of Eldrazi flashback drafts, I acquired several Flame Slashes. This common was recently priced as high as 1 Tix and is playable in Modern and Pauper. Sure, a reprint in Modern Masters 2015 would ruin this spec, but the upside is really big and the risk is minimum, considering my purchase price of 0.06 Tix.

Quickfliping is Not Cheating

Quickflips are a fast, easy and almost a risk free way to grind some Tix. To me, there are two ways to performĀ Quickflips--arbitrage situations and very short term specs. Usually you are looking at a 10-20% profit in few seconds to few days, max.

I haven't done as many Quickflips as I wanted to, as I don't have a lot of free time these days. Nonetheless, I used this speculation strategy 13 times so far for a total of +13.66 Tix (with Ghastly Conscription still pending, and probably losing in the end).

I lost Tix (-2.18 Tix) only once with Amulet of Vigor. The most I had put into a single Quickflip position was 13 Tix with Whisperwood Elemental.

Arbitrage Situations

These are virtually risk free and only take few seconds. Someone is buying at a higher price than someone else is selling at? Just be the middle man and cash in the difference.

It does happen way more often that you may think between bots. The trick is that sometimes the difference is too small, like 0.03 Tix, and for only 1 or 2 copies of a card. That, or it's pretty much impossible to identified unless you spend all your time screening MTGOLibrary Bots, MTGOTraders hotlist and the Classified.

My two favorite bot chains for that exercise are Goatbots and the hotlist of MtgoTraders (HotListBots) or sometimes their regular CardBuyingBots. Goatbots often sell at the cheapest prices, and MtgoTraders sometimes buy at the best price, and sometimes you can cash in the difference since they are not overlapping each other.

I would also give a special mention to AboshanBots. They don't buy everything all the time, and are actually only looking for a playset of each card per bot, but they probably offer the best buy prices out there.

An alternative strategy I use from time to time is to put all the cards I have up for trade--opening a trade with HotListBots of CardBuyingBots and seeing what they take at what price. Then a quick look at MTGOLibrary bots and Goatbots selling prices will tell me if there some Tix to be made.

Very Short Term Specs

These situations mostly happen during PTs, GPs and sometimes during SCG events. Especially when a new card/deck is on camera, there's a good chance everybody is going to try andĀ buy it. The PT hype is usually the craziest of all.

If you manage to be among the first to buy the card(s) at their cheapest price for the next 12h, you might be able to sell it the next day with some profit. Painless and easy.

This doesn't work as great as you would hope all of the time. If not enough people want the card, the buy prices never really increase. The idea is to sell the card quickly enough so you don't take the risk of losing money as the hype disappears.

Next

With Dragons of Tarkir release events firing, we are entering a set release season. After DTK, Tempest Remastered, Modern Masters 2015 and Magic Origins in July, we have five new sets (or so) in barely four months.

Tempest Remastered may be the opportunity to speculate on Pauper cards from the Tempest block that are expected to hit their lowest point ever. Lotus Petal, Diabolic Edict and Rolling Thunder are on my watchlist. City of Traitors and, more particularly, Wasteland are likely to be great targets.

Modern Master 2015 will hammer a lot of Modern staples. Based on what happened with MMA, these same staples mayĀ be great speculative targets. Generating additional Tix between DTK and Magic Origins is what I intend to do here.

Magic Origins, as manyĀ core sets before it, should be among the best sets to speculate on. Due to their release during the summer, before a new fall set, rares andĀ mythics from core sets are often underestimated and rise sharply when Standard rotates in the fall.

As the draft structure changes from KKF to FDD, the release of DTK is also likely to coincide with a rise of KTK prices, since the first set of Tarkir won't be drafted en masse anymore. I expect a similar situation for KTK prices as observed for RTR prices after GTC release. Siege Rhino is my top target here.

~

Thank you for reading and following!

Sylvain Lehoux

 

 

Insider: Cards to Watch for This Weekend at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir

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If you speculate on Standard, then we're coming up on one of the biggest weekends of the year for you.

Standard cards tend to see the biggest spikes from the Pro Tour, and Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir is right around the corner. While the last set being introduced to fill out Standard matters less than the first set in a block, this is still an exciting time.

With the Richmond Invitational happening two weeks ago and the Syracuse Open last weekend, we already have some solid data on what's good out of Dragons. Dromoka's Command and Thunderbreak Regent have already risen beyond the point of reasonable speculation, but it's a reasonable bet that the superteams on the Pro Tour know more than the SCG grinders. Not to mention that different cards become relevant as metagames naturally develop.

This is my short list of cards to watch for Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

Warriors

There are a bunch of good warriors in Standard right now, with most of them being in Khans block. If there ends up being a good warrior deck, it will likely hold over through rotation. The rares for this deck are a bit risky to invest in, as they're all over a buck currently, with most of them having ~$5 ceilings, but if the deck breaks out and you have them, you could make a small chunk of change. These rares are all worth paying attention to, not only for the PT but also for the near future.

Blood-Chin Fanatic is the cheapest of the lot, though it's likely also the worst. It's hard to imagine that you wouldn't want Mardu Strike Leader and Arashin Foremost in your warrior deck, which doesn't leave much room for more three drops. Mardu Strike Leader has a way of dominating every limited game that he shows up, which leads me to believe that the constructed potential is there.

If he doesn't break out this weekend then you'll probably be able to get them even cheaper in the near future, but this card strikes me as a very likely constructed playable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mardu Strike Leader

Dragonlord Silumgar

Dragonlord Ojutai has already exploded in price, which was a little surprising to me. It's definitely a strong card, but I don't think it even compares to Silumgar. A lot of players bias their deckbuilding towards hexproof threats, but a Silumgar out of the sideboard is going to be quite difficult for many decks to deal with.

Imagine that you're playing against something like Ross Merriam's Gruul Dragons deck:

Gruul Dragons

creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
3 Heir of the Wilds
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
4 Stormbreath Dragon
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Boon Satyr
3 Surrak, the Hunt Caller

spells

2 Draconic Roar
4 Crater's Claws
1 Roast

lands

6 Forest
6 Mountain
2 Mana Confluence
1 Rugged Highlands
4 Temple of Abandon
4 Wooded Foothills

sideboard

3 Hornet Nest
3 Destructive Revelry
3 Wild Slash
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
3 Xenagos, the Reveler
2 Roast

Outside of Crater's Claws, this deck is really going to struggle against Silumgar. Considering that any deck running Silumgar should be quite good at keeping the Gruul deck off of ferocious, Crater's Claws is going to cost six.

Having a card that is devastating barring a six mana one-outer sounds pretty stellar to me. I think that Silumgar has good upside as a trade target at $5.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Silumgar

Haven of the Spirit Dragon

Speaking of dragons, this land is really powerful.

It's been showing up in quite a few lists, sometimes as two or more copies. Honestly, it's really surprising not seeing it in Merriam's list. The first copy in a deck with dragons is very close to a freeroll, and, in two color decks, it's relatively easy to support multiple copies.

I expect to see this card in play at the Pro Tour and I won't be surprised if it becomes $5+ during its lifetime in Standard.

Long term, itĀ screams casual appeal. Dragon kid is going to love this and there is no way you don't play itĀ in any dragon-heavy Commander deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haven of the Spirit Dragon

Icefall Regent

Did I mention that there were dragon cards with upsides in this set?

Icefall Regent showed up a couple times on camera at the Syracuse Open this past weekend and was very impressive every time. It was also in Jeff Hoogland's Top 16 deck from the Richmond Invitational, yet the card still sits at around $1. As a five mana regular rare, there isn't a ton of upside here, but I could see itĀ moving into the $3-5 range easily with a good showing at the Pro Tour.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Icefall Regent

Savage Knuckleblade

This is less of a card to watch for at the PT specifically, and more of a card pay attention to in general.

I could see a Temur deck doing well this weekend with Sarkhan Unbroken and a critical mass of options for the deck now in the format, but mostly I think that this card is at or near its floor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savage Knuckleblade

While there are tons of interchangeable four drops in Khans block, Savage Knuckleblade is really exactly what you want on three for a Temur deck. There's a bevy of powerful cards for this clan, and this card is definitely worth picking up in the 50 cent range.

Warden of the First Tree

Speaking of cards at or near their floor, I'm expecting this one to start ticking up in value.

This card Top 8'd a GP and has seen scattered success since its printing but hasn't generated a ton of interest. When Fleecemane Lion rotates, this card likely takes its spot in most Abzan decks.

Furthermore, there's just no wayĀ itĀ stays sub-$5 with a good PT showing this weekend.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warden of the First Tree

Kolaghan's Command

This one is a higher-risk spec and a bit of a shot in the dark, but this card is excellent.

It was featured on camera in the hands of a player at 10-2 in round 13 of the Syracuse Open, and even though that player lost the match, the card itself really performed in the aggressive mirror featured.

This card is going to see more play and willĀ increase in value at some point. I don't believe it will be this weekend, but if you start seeing it on camera, I recommend snapping up some copies.

Either way, I would aggressively trade for themĀ and pay attention to the price as a potential card to speculate on otherwise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

~

These are my picks for the DTK PT and the near future for Standard. Have any I missed? Think I picked wrong on any of them? Chime in in the comments!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Stompy Daily 4/7: Video

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stompy vines

With Avatar of the Resolute now available on Magic Online, I took a renewed Stompy list to the daily queue this week to test the deck's mettle. Below is what I ran.

The sideboard is pretty much what I mentioned last time, except I've included extra Aspect of Hydra. As I mention in the video below, I'd love to have these main as it's our most busted card, but there just doesn't seem to be room. So, we stick some in the board for matches where we don't need Ooze or Prey Upon, and/or where it's paramount we race or go over the top of our opponent.

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Stompy by Sean Ridgeley

Creatures

4 Dryad Militant
4 Experiment One
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Strangleroot Geist
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Avatar of the Resolute
4 Kalonian Tusker

Enchantments

4 Rancor

Instants

2 Aspect of Hydra
4 Vines of Vastwood

Sorceries

3 Prey Upon

Lands

19 Forest
2 Treetop Village

Sideboard

2 Aspect of Hydra
2 Hunt the Hunter
3 Unravel the Aether
2 Dismember
2 Choke
4 Kitchen Finks

Stompy in Action

The matches are a lively assortment: Mardu Tokens, Merfolk, Jeskai Midrange, and Living End. See below for how they went. I apologize in advance if the volume is too low; this will be fixed in future videos.

Gray Areas: Trade Etiquette

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I was trying to drum up something to write about for today, and then I had the horrible idea to check Reddit. I did come across a thread that I think is worth discussing though, so there's that. The thread in question is a follow up to a different threat posted recently, but I'm not too interested in the particulars of the matter. To save you some time reading the actual thread, this is the story about a boy and his Narset.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset Transcendent

This boy found himself perusing a bearded stranger's trade binder and decided that he really wanted to get his hand's on the man's foil Mountain. The boy wanted the Mountain so much, that he offered to trade his Narset for it. The man attempted with presumably a non-zero degree of effort to convince the child that he should push to get more value out of his planeswalker, but the boy was convinced that the foil Mountain was the only thing in the world that he could ever want, and a trade occurred.

So the questions is, is it okay to make a lop-sided trade with a child if you try to offer more?

The answer is of course not. I mean, come on. Do you remember what it was like being a child? You didn't know anything, and you certainly didn't learn what you know how by having a brief conversation with a stranger. In a case similar to this one, if you were to learn anything at all it would be reflecting on the fact that you made a bad trade long after the fact. I don't care what it takes to get the kid to get his/her money's worth, sneak cards into their deck if you have to, but don't make a trade just because a child says that they're okay with it. As adults, it's our duty to be role-models to the youth.

Then the other half of the story is that the kid's dad tries to trade back but the bearded fellow won't because the Mountain was ruined... I get it, you shouldn't just give up value for no reason, but ask for the value of the Mountain... Don't keep the planeswalker.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mountain
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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: Aggro in All Formats

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Welcome, Magic players, to another edition of Aggro for Life, the show where only aggro decks are allowed. On today's show we have the returning champion Abzan Aggro facing off against the new kid on the block G/R Aggro (aka the return of G/R Monsters) as well as the Mono-Red who got a recent facelift with the addition of new cards to the format. Gerrard Fabiano missed the only aggro memo so they kicked him out of the top eight down to ninth place, but other than that, everyone else was on the same page.

All joking aside, aggro decks had as strong a showing as any event I’ve ever seen before. In the nearly fifteen years I’ve been playing I think we would have to go all the way back to MirrodinĀ block to see a winners metagame breakdown like this. Certainly there were multiple different aggro decks, but that doesn’t account for the lack of controlling strategies. There are plenty of good removal spells in the format but the absence of a four-mana board wipe is definitely noticeable from these results.

Aggro in Standard

Let’s start off with the best of the best, at least for this past weekend, G/R Aggro.

GR Dragons by Chris Van Meter (1st place SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Thunderbreak Regent
2 Ashcloud Phoenix
4 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Dragonlord Atarka

Spells

2 Roast
4 Draconic Roar
3 Xenagos, the Reveler
3 Crater's Claws

Lands

4 Temple of Abandon
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Rugged Highlands
2 Mana Confluence
3 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
6 Forest
3 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Arbor Colossus
2 Hornet Nest
2 Destructive Revelry
2 Wild Slash
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
1 Mob Rule
1 Roast
3 Seismic Rupture

It seems like CVM has honed his list into a sleek precise tool forged to remove your opponent from the game. Not only does it have some of the best cards in the format, but he managed to diversify his card selection in the process too.

He squeezed in a couple of Ashcloud Phoenixs to fill out his dragon air force, but he also was able to include Xenagos, the Reveler as a way to not only diversify his threats, but also ramp into the big boy Dragonlord Atarka. It seems like Xenagos, the Reveler is poised for a spike yet again if this deck stays tier one.

This R/G Monsters-esque build has a couple Roasts, which I think is the perfect number for your maindeck in this format. It also has the dynamic duo of Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix that we have come to love and hate. There is even Crater's Claws to finish off your opponents more quickly or remove a threat of theirs!

I know a deck is good when there are no obvious changes to be made. I wouldn’t change a single card from this maindeck. There is no obvious weakness to this deck either. It seems as if CVM really did think of everything when creating this deck. His maindeck and sideboard both seem set up to defeat any opponent that sits down across from him.

This deck is here to stay and it will only pick up steam from here. If you are looking for a great choice for your next event, play this deck, or build something you think can beat it because you will definitely be seeing lots of players jumping on this bandwagon.

R/g Aggro by Ryan Sandrin (5th place SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

3 Zurgo Bellstriker
1 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Foundry Street Denizen
2 Lightning Berserker
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Goblin Rabblemaster

Spells

4 Atarka's Command
4 Lightning Strike
4 Stoke the Flames
3 Wild Slash
4 Dragon Fodder
4 Hordeling Outburst

Lands

4 Mana Confluence
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Forest
10 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Searing Blood
3 Arc Lightning
2 Magmatic Chasm
3 Roast

Recently I have been pondering the possibilities of Atarka's Command with Dragon Fodder and Hordeling Outburst. Luckily other players have been thinking the same thoughts as well and having success with the combination of cards as well.

I like this list of basically Mono-Red much more than the previous all-in versions because most of the creatures are good on their own. In the Boss Sligh version of the deck, you were too dependent on amazing opening sequences. If you opponent could slow you down by a turn or two, that usually meant you couldn’t win. This deck feels more robust than that. If your opponent has running removal spells, you can still sequence your way to victory.

Additionally, I always feel like these decks need better sideboard construction. If I were going to play a deck like this, and I’ve been working on my own version, I would try to work in a transformational sideboard where I was able to take out some of my low end to mitigate the disaster status caused by all the black removal in the format as well as the new Seismic Rupture. You may only have nineteen lands in this version but having a couple more so you can support Outpost Siege seems like a win percentage booster from my perspective.

Regardless of how you want to build it, this style deck is exactly what the format is looking for. This deck gives you a clear pathway to defeating your opponent before they can cast all the cards in their hand. I would say that this deck probably has the highest game one win percentage of any deck in the format. If you can figure out what to do for game two and three, you’d be in business. My theory is that you need some powerful four drops to give yourself a way to win games that go past the first couple of turns.

Both of these red-green decks are on my list of decks to test this week so we will see what comes of that.

Jund Midrange by Gerard Fabiano (9th place SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

3 Satyr Wayfinder
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Courser of Kruphix
2 Sidisi, Undead Vizier
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Doomwake Giant
1 Soul of Innistrad
1 Hornet Queen
1 Dragonlord Atarka

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
3 Hero's Downfall
3 Murderous Cut
3 Outpost Siege
1 Whip of Erebos
1 Garruk, Apex Predator
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
2 Xenagos, the Reveler

Lands

4 Llanowar Wastes
2 Temple of Abandon
4 Temple of Malady
3 Temple of Malice
3 Wooded Foothills
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Forest
1 Mountain
2 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Reclamation Sage
1 Doomwake Giant
3 Bile Blight
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Dragonlord Kolaghan
1 Pharika, God of Affliction
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
2 Drown in Sorrow
1 Duress
2 Read the Bones

Although we did have a plethora of aggressive strategies littering the top of the standings this past weekend, there was one deck trying to stop the aggro with his innovative list. Gerrard Fabiano has been absolutely killing it lately putting up high profile finishes in multiple formats. Not only that, but he has been doing it with his own creative take on each format. While he has been playing mainly Courser-Caryatid strategies, this new deck is definitely different than what we’ve seen before.

Aggro decks are not the only ones allowed to utilize the card drawing power of Outpost Siege. Midrange strategies can put it to good use as well. After I saw this deck, I was surprised that no one had thought of it before. It seems straightforward to build Jund Midrange in this format but when you dive into actually building it, you are constrained by the other wedge cards getting in the way of your build. For example, this seems like a great Siege Rhino deck, but if you add Rhinos, you are a few short steps away from converting into an Abzan Midrange deck.

I’m not sure how many players will adopt this strategy. Gerrard’s decks seem difficult for other players to be successful with. I love the idea of Outpost Siege in a midrange controlling deck though and I could see that concept being ported over to another strategy.

Aggro in Modern

Even though Standard takes center stage nearly every weekend, Modern is still a format I love and enjoy playing. Star City has a moderately sized Modern event every Sunday and it is still a Grand Prix format.

In addition, Wizards recently announced changes to the PPTQ format selection process. Now, stores will only be able to choose from two formats instead of three. Sealed will always be an option for these events, but as far as I can tell, it’s not a popular choice. Then, stores will have the option of Standard or Modern depending on what the upcoming Pro Tour format is going to be. Your format choices will match the format of the Pro Tour.

This means that since Standard isn’t an option for some seasons, tournament organizers will have to choose between Modern and Sealed. Modern isn’t going anywhere. If your deck got banned, start working on a new one because you are going to need it if you want to compete at the highest levels.

This is great for the financial side of Magic as well because it means that there will be more opportunities to make money with your cards. There are safe investments like Snapcaster Mage or Arcbound Ravager, but there will always be the long shots like Leonin Arbiter waiting in the wings to jump in price as well.

Modern as a format is in flux right now as well because there have been no big events for players to show off their newly updated strategies. All we have to go off of are local events and these SCG IQ’s that are not on camera. There were a couple of interesting decks to come out of the latest of those events though so let’s take a look at what a couple of players are doing to innovate in the format.

G/W Hatebears by Kyle Dauch (2nd place Modern SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

4 Aven Mindcensor
2 Hushwing Gryff
4 Leonin Arbiter
2 Loxodon Smiter
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Qasali Pridemage
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Voice of Resurgence
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Thrun, the Last Troll

Spells

4 Aether Vial
4 Path to Exile

Lands

3 Horizon Canopy
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Tectonic Edge
4 Temple Garden
4 Ghost Quarter
2 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Fiend Hunter
1 Hushwing Gryff
1 Loxodon Smiter
2 Restoration Angel
2 Windborn Muse
2 Stony Silence
2 Gaddock Teeg
2 Kataki, War's Wage
1 Thrun, the Last Troll

First up, we have G/W Hatebears. You may or may not be familiar with this deck, but it has been around for a while now. It is both not popular and also typically not successful, but it is based on the same concept as Death and Taxes in Legacy. Your goal is to play cheap creatures that disrupt your opponent’s game plan. The reason I bring this deck up now, is that if you notice, the core of the deck is the same as one of the breakout decks from the last Modern Pro Tour. The rest of the deck may be more tuned to look like Death and Taxes, but they end up being quite similar.

Now that we are in a post-Pod and -Cruise format, I think a deck like this could stick around as a major player in the format. After all, it’s in the same vein as podless pod decks.

This deck is a financial dream as well. Almost every card in the deck could increase in value if this deck picks up speed in the format. The only exception is Noble Hierarch and the fate of that mana accelerant depends solely on what happens with Modern Masters 2. If you see these cards in trade binders, pick them because they all have potential.

Although I don’t advise doing a lot of investing in Modern while MMA2 is still on the horizon, some deals are too good to pass up. For instance, finding any of these cards in a bulk bin or listed at a huge discount is worth the risk because of the low cost to invest. Recently, I bought a playset of Daybreak Coronets because it’s a card I’ve been wanting for a while now.

If I wasn’t able to purchase them for 30% less than the current price though, I would have shied away due to their possible, though unlikely, reprint in MMA2. We can apply this logic to nearly every card in Modern so tread lightly, but don’t ever pass on sick deals.

Abzan Collected Company by Max Brown (11th place Modern SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Noble Hierarch
3 Voice of Resurgence
3 Flickerwisp
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Sin Collector
1 Viscera Seer
1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
1 Spellskite
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Eternal Witness
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Harmonic Sliver
1 Restoration Angel

Spells

4 Collected Company
3 Congregation at Dawn

Lands

3 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
2 Temple Garden
1 Godless Shrine
2 Overgrown Tomb
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Gavony Township
2 Forest
2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Spellskite
1 Aven Mindcensor
1 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Harmonic Sliver
1 Kor Firewalker
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Path to Exile
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
3 Thoughtseize

Now we get to the dessert of the article. Here we see the next generation of Birthing Pod decks being brought to life by, yes that’s right, Collected Company. This Dragons of Tarkir card has not been selling well for me, but that’s about to change.

All of those players with their Birthing Pod decks sitting on a shelf because they no longer have a legal Modern deck are now only a handful of cards away from having a sweet new deck to play with. Congregation at Dawn has already spiked up a couple dollars from its previous bulk uncommon status as proof of the movement of players towards this deck.

My friends and I have been theorizing about this deck since Collected Company was spoiled but our lists always included Chord of Calling as another way to find the right card for the job. Max here cut the Chord entirely though to bring life to something brand new.

One aspect you may not be familiar with is how Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit interacts with this deck. Basically, she is another cheap combo piece that functions the same way as Melira, Sylvok Outcast. Because you bolster every time a creature enters the battlefield, you can always add your counter to the persisted Kitchen Finks because its toughness will be tied with the lowest toughness you control. I think she would be a solid threat in this deck as well because boosting your utility creatures power and toughness puts them way above curve.

This deck still has access to all the best creatures that shut down your opponents’ strategies and can use Congregation at Dawn to find any of them you need, but you also have the ability to set up your Congregation with combo pieces you need to gain infinite life. In a midrangey format like Modern has become, this deck seems very well positioned to take over a prominent spot.

Well that’s all for today Magic players. If you like aggro, now is your time to shine. There are lots of viable options for aggro in Standard and Modern. Which one will you choose? If you have thoughts on how either of these formats will adapt to the recent influx of aggro, let’s start the discussion in the comments below.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

How to Beat Abzan

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It's impossible to prepare for every matchup in Modern; there are just too many viable decks and too many fringe strategies out there. And for the most part, it's okay not to worry about having a positive win chance against every deck in the format. You'll dodge some, get lucky against others, and lose one here and there. But there's one deck in Modern you can't just hope for the best against: it's the most played deck, the most consistent deck, and the most enduring deck of Modern, BGx Midrange.

Two years ago, it was Bloodbraid Elf Jund. A year later, it was Deathrite Shaman-powered Ajundi and variants. Last summer it was BG Rock and BGw Souls, and today it is straight up Abzan. Thanks to metagame context and the mighty Siege Rhino, aka "Bloodbraid Rhino" in the words of Rock all-star Willy Edel, Abzan has the highest prevalence of any deck in the format. This naturally makes it one of the most important -- if not the most important -- decks to beat in Modern. There's a reason decks have emerged specifically to fight this menace: looking at you, Wilt-Leaf Liege and friends!

Wilt Leaf Liege Art

"How to Beat Abzan" is the next installment in this beating top-tier decks series, following "How to Beat Infect" and "How to Beat Burn". If you are just getting into Modern or need a refresher on defeating its best decks, these articles will hopefully give you a wealth of information to dethrone the champs. And if you are a tournament regular and format veteran, the articles can give you some new ideas and frameworks for approaching these critical matchups.

It's no secret Abzan is one of the hardest decks to beat in Modern. It has been called the 50-50 deck because it seems to have at least a 50% chance of winning any matchup. It also has all the tools in the maindeck and sideboard for beating basically anything it comes across. So we have a tall task ahead of us.

As usual, I'm going to start with the general principles that make anti-Abzan cards good, and then some specific in-game tactics that are effective against the deck. Then I'll turn to sideboard cards and maindeck cards, before looking at some deck choices for Abzan-heavy metagames (spoiler alert: the best way to beat Abzan isn't with cards, it's with decks). Finally, we'll end with a list of anti-Abzan tech by color.

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What Makes Anti-Abzan Cards Good?

One of the biggest challenges in fighting Abzan is the deck appears prepared for everything. Any bullets you have in your hand will probably be ripped away on turns 1 and 2 with Thoughtseize/Inquisition of Kozilek. Any single threat you resolve gets killed by Path to Exile, Abrupt Decay, or Liliana of the Veil. And any clocks you land are unlikely to race Goyf, Rhino, Tasigur, or a swarm of restless Spirit tokens. In short, Abzan is just a really efficient deck. The key to beating Abzan does not lie in being more efficient than they are, which is hard given how powerful their individual spells are. It's in making theirĀ efficiency meaningless.

Here are three qualities cards must have to be strong against Abzan:

  • Generates card advantage
    Lingering SoulsAbzan is the best deck in the format at one-for-one exchanges. Decks that try to play this game with Abzan tend to lose, because their removal and threats are just lessĀ efficient than Abzan's. But anything that can generate card advantage for you is going to be much harder for Abzan to deal with. The prime example of this is Lingering Souls, which can't be reliably discarded, can't be reliably killed, clogs up the board, threatens Lily, can swing for up to 4 damage, etc. All for one card! Even looking at less powerful examples, you want cards that create multiple threats (e.g. token producers), cards that have effects even if removed (e.g. Thragtusk, cards that recover lost resources in multiples (e.g. recurring cards with Eternal Witness, "drawing" cards with Tasigur, the Golden Fang, etc.), and cards that destroy multiple resources on your opponent's side (e.g. Wrath of God). Anything generating card advantage on a 2 for 1 exchange rate (or better) givesĀ Abzan fits.
  • Speed
    Inkmoth Nexus
    There's a reason three of the Modern's tier 1 decks are linear, aggressive, non-interactive strategies. These decks are excellent against Abzan because they can apply pressure faster than Abzan can answer it. In the case of Affinity and Burn, they also punish Abzan for its internal lifeloss due toĀ Thoughtseize, shocklands, and fetchlands. Who cares if Abzan TS's away your Rift Bolt if you still have a pair of Lava Spikes? What does it matter if they Decay a Glistener Elf if you have Inkmoth Nexus hiding in wait? Abzan only has so many resources in the first 2-3 turns of the game, typically enough to answer one threat every turn. If you are playing more than that, Abzan will often be too behind to recover.
  • Durability
    KeranosSome decks are neither interested in or even designed to race Abzan. In those cases, you want to play threats that are just plain hard for Abzan to kill. Batterskull is the posterchild of this gameplan, as is Keranos, God of Storms in URx decks. Unless Abzan snags these with a TS or catches them off a Lily activation, they are impossible to remove. Sure, Abzan tries to handle this in the sideboard, but it's still an inherent weakness of their gameplan. Abzan is built around an assumption that every threat can be answered either before it resolves or after. Cards like BSkull and Keranos invalidate that assumption, because they can't be hit by IoK (which is 50%+ of the selective discard in Abzan), and can't be removed once they enter. This forces Abzan into situations where they have dead removal and can't answer game-changing threats.

If cards qualify on at least one of those categories, they are probably at least decent against Abzan. If they qualify on multiple levels, they are all-stars.

Anti-Abzan Tactics

Regardless of which cards you bring to the table against Abzan, there are certain ways you need to approach the matchup to have a fighting chance. Instead of discussing more abstract principles of this matchup, I want to focus on three nuances of the Abzan matchup affecting how you play your deck.

  • Be aware of Goyf's P/T
    TarmogoyfAt all times, you need to be aware of Goyf's P/T. This goes well beyond just keeping track of Goyf's P/T with a dice or token (which is potentially of questionable legality, but I'll leave that for the DCI). It's about knowing how big Goyf is right now, and how big Goyf could be at any given moment. Your average Goyf tends to be about a 4/5 (instant, sorcery, creature, land) by turn 3, but as the game progresses, even the slightest increase in its power can completely ruin your combat math. As an example, consider the Abzan mirror. Say you left a Rhino back to guard your Lilly from an enemy Goyf but your opponent topdecks a Decay. Now he kills Lily, pumps Goyf to 5/6, and swings for 5 against a Rhino that cant' safely block. If you expected a play like that, maybe you would have held back 2 Spirit tokens as insurance, or kept mana open for a manland. This underscores the importance of tracking both Goyf's power and its potential power at any given time.
  • Don't walk into Lily traps
    Liliana of the VeilOne of the easiest ways to lose to Abzan is to play a creature into an opposing Lily with no protection. This leads to you losing your creature, the enemy Lily being unthreatened at just 1 loyalty, and you wasting your entire 2nd/3rd turn while the opponent developed their boardstate. For fair decks, it's really hard to recover from this. Play around it. For instance, if you have Souls and a creature, wait the extra turn to play Souls before playing your Confidant, Smiter, or Tas. The tokens will clog up the board and defend your bomb from a sac effect (not to mention threatening Lily herself). Alternately, if your deck plays discard or countermagic, just wait the extra 1-2 turns to play your important threat with mana up for a same turn TS or Spell Pierce.
  • Burn to remove vs. Burn to race
    Lightning BoltIf you are playing a deck with burn spells,Ā there comes a time when you need to decide whether you are playing to race or playing to control the board. If you are controlling the board, firing two Bolts to kill an enemy Goyf might be worth it. But if you are playing to race, those two Bolts put you 6 damage closer to a win. This choice is often determined by the boardstate and the life totals of both players. If Abzan is at > 15 life by turn 4, you probably want to control the game. But if they are at < 12 life, then FULL SPEED AHEAD! Decks with Snapcaster Mage need to be particularly aware of this decision, because Snappy extends your Burn's reach well beyond what an Abzan player might expect. But also remember that Rhino is effectively -1 Bolt for your racing agenda. When playing against Abzan, make this decision around turn 4-5 and stay focused on it. It helps dictate your playlines and keep you efficient. For instance, if you are controlling the game, then Bolting a Spirit token might not be the worst plan. But if you are trying to race, that's a huge waste of resources.

There are lots of other tactics we could discuss, like choosing Lily discards, prioritizing enemy threats, selecting cards fromĀ Tasigur activations, etc., but these three tips above are a great starting point to get you thinking about beating Abzan.

Sideboarding Against Abzan

Modern sideboard cards need to be flexible. With so many decks in the format, you can't commit too many sideboard slots to specific matchups. A card like Stony Silence is an exception to this, because Affinity is such a large chunk of the metagame and Silence is so gamebreaking against them. But for the most part, you can't have too many Silences in your board.

This means when boarding against Abzan you need cards that are relevant in other matchups as well. Why not focus on Abzan itself? This deck is so flexible in its sideboard and maindeck that you can't hope for even the best anti-Abzan bullets to just win the game on their own (unlike Silence against Affinity). That means using diverse sideboard cards (2 Moon, 1 Relic, 1 Roast, etc.) instead of just going all-in on one card (4 Moon).Ā Here are a few card choices that exemplify this approach.

Blood Moon

Blood MoonHonestly, Moon would be a solid entry on my top 10 most powerful Modern sideboard cards (maybe even top 5). So it should come as no surprise it's showing up against Abzan, a tri-colored deck with a number of important utility nonbasics. One of Abzan's biggest strengths is its manlands (Treetop Village and Stirring Wildwood), which help it punchĀ through stalls, dodge removal, and mitigate the effect of manaflooding. Other builds also pack either Vault of the Archangel or Gavony Township as stalemate breakers. These cards alone would justify a Moon inclusion, because shutting down even a few of them for a single card investment puts Abzan at a huge disadvantage. But addĀ Abzan'sĀ reliance on fetches and shocks and you can totally shut this deck down with a resolved Moon. When sideboarding, this is an outstanding card on the play; Abzan has two turns to discard it from your hand or they are probably stuck on 2 colored mana all game. Even if they fetch around it to get basics, this often hamstrings their mana development enough to buy you time to do other things. Be careful of boarding this in on the draw. It's relatively easy for Abzan to get a basic swamp and a basic forest in play by then, and Decay will ruin your day.

Leyline of Sanctity

Leyline of SanctityLeyline is both one of the best cards against Abzan and also the most misunderstood. On the one hand, it stops three of the strongest cards in the deck: TS, IoK, and Lily. On the other hand, ifĀ you mulligan to Leyline too aggressively, your opponent might just beat you to death with Goyf and Tas while you sit there trying to draw your third land after a mull to 5. Also, a lot of Abzan players will sideboard out hand disruption in games 2/3 in grindy matchups, favoring threat density that can be topdecked in the midgame. This further limitsĀ Leyline's effectiveness. But if you are running a deck withĀ a very defined gameplan that absolutely can't be disrupted (e.g. Amulet Bloom, Bogles, etc.), then Leyline is outstanding and probably game-ending. Otherwise, don't rely on it. Extending that to a general rule, if you are Ā deck that Abzan wants to leave its TS/IoK arsenal in against in games 2/3, you are a deck that benefits from Leyline. Also, it doesn't hurt that Leyline is also strong against the format's most-played aggro deck (Burn).

Damnation

DamnationDamnation and Wrath of God are two of the strongest sweepers ever printed. They also see relativelyĀ little play in Modern. There are some good reasons for this depending on the metagame, but if Abzan is your big worry, these cards become a lot more attractive. Damnation and Wrath are the archetypical two-for-one (or more) sweepers at your disposal. If the Abzan player overextends into theseĀ cards, the resource loss is often insurmountable. If the Abzan pilot plays around it, their clock is so much slower that you have more room to maneuver and force that overextension. Even just catching a Goyf and Spirit teamĀ is huge, especially if you used your 2nd and 3rd turns to play noncreature cards. That's a massive card advantage swing. Your opponent committed two turns to play 2 cards that are immediately wiped away. You developed your own gameplan on turns 2-3 (or hindered theirs in some way), and then invalidated their turn 2-3 plays in one swoop. That's the kind of card advantage exchange Abzan struggles to recover from.

Rest In PeaceĀ (and company)

Rest In PeaceBelieve it or not, Abzan isĀ kind ofĀ aĀ graveyard deck. Goyf, Souls, Ooze, and Tasigur all rely on the graveyard in one form or another.Ā It's not like the graveyard is an incidental part of the Abzan gameplan, sort of like how it was an incidental part of Treasure Cruise Delver's gameplan. The graveyard is integral to its strategy. Cards like Rest in Peace (RiP), Dryad Militant, Relic of Progenitus, etc. are devastating for Abzan's core threats. RiP turns Goyf into a Kobold and turns Ooze into a Runeclaw Bear. It effectively triples Tas' average casting cost, and converts Souls into a bad Spectral Procession. The key with anti-graveyard cards is knowing which one is best for your deck. RiP functions best in proactive strategies; Relic is strong in more reactive ones; Militant is more a build-around card catering to proactive decks. Pick the card that suits your gameplan and deny Abzan players one of their most important resources.

Fulminator Mage

Fulminator MageThis unassuming Rain of Tears with legs is the lynchpin of the BGx anti-Abzan plan. If you are playing a fair black-based deck, then Mage is your go-to guy against Abzan. But like Leyline, Mage is also one of the most misunderstood cards in this matchup. At his best, Mage sets back the Abzan player a turn and lets you hit your Huntmaster of the Fells/Siege Rhino 1-2 turns before the opponent can land theirs. Or it pressures an opponent while threatening one of their manlands. At his worst, however, Mage is an awful turn 7 topdeck that sits there looking stupid while Goyf and Rhino charge across the field. In that respect, Mage underscores the importance of boarding differently when on the play versus when on the draw. On the play, he gives you a huge lead on turn 3-4. On the draw, he's often too little, too late.

Because Abzan attacks from so many angles, there are obviously dozens of other viable sideboard cards that I could have discussed here. So just because it wasn't mentioned, it doesn't mean it's not good! Check out the Anti-Abzan Armory at the end for more ideas. Also, just because a card is listed in the sideboard section, doesn't mean you can't find ways to maindeck it. Trinket Mage loves playing with Relic, and Gerard Fabiano showed everyone that Damnation is a viable maindeck sweeper in this metagame. Don't be limited by a card's "traditional" role in the sideboard!

Beating Abzan with the Maindeck

In some ways, it's actually easier to tailor your maindeck to beat Abzan than it is to tinker too heavily with your sideboard. Those 15 cards need to get you through 1 or 2 games against all the weird and zanyĀ decks you might encounter in the Modern wilderness (a wild Ad Nauseam/Humans/Dredgevine/Norin the Wary appeared!). Your main 60 really just need to get you through game 1 and maintainĀ someĀ degree of relevance beyond that. With Abzan at 13%-14% of the metagame right now, it's fine to hedge your bets against them to some extent. Here are some cards that can help you do this.

Lingering Souls

Lingering SoulsAbzan mirrors, particularly at PT FRF, often came down to who had the most Spirit tokens. Remember that pointer earlier about card advantage? When a single card generates 4 tokens over separate 3 and 2 mana investments, you know you have the very definition of "value" in your hand. Souls serves a number of key functions against Abzan. It creates as many as 4 chump blockers to stonewall Goyf, Tas, and Scooze; it protects your more important creatures from Lily's sac effect, and it protects other cards in your hand from Lily's discard. The tokens also directly threaten Lily herself. Finally, the tokens are a surprisingly fast clock in their own right, hitting for 1-4 damage per turn if unmolested by the best counter to Souls: the enemy's Spirit tokens themselves! If you are playing BW in Modern right now, there is almost no reason to not use Souls (Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is one of the few). It's relevant against all but the most uninteractive decks in the format, and outright strong against most of the rest.

Dark Confidant

Dark ConfidantBob is back! Original art, baby! Modern's best black two drop took a bit of a break from the format, but he's back with a vengeance these days. Why was Bob gone in the first place? Anti-synergy with your own delve cards, URx Delver's burn suite, the overall prevalence of Burn, etc. These factors contributed to a hostile environment for poor Bob. But for a variety of reasons (bannings, metagame shifts, etc.), those factors are no longer as pressing today.

With regards to Abzan, Bob has always been a strong way to break open the BGx matchup for any deck, especially in the BGx mirror. But Confidant wasn't nearly as powerful against Jund, a deck that could easily answer him with Bolt. Abzan has to rely on Path to Exile instead, which is miles worse as a quick answer to the Confidant. A Pathed Bob will still accelerate you into a turn 3 Rhino or Lily with discard/Bolt backup (assuming you are playing Jund). In addition to Abzan's reliance on a worse one mana removal spell, it also just isn't as aggressive as the BGx days of the past. This means Bob's lifeloss is less punishing. And once online, everyone knows Confidant quickly takes over a game.

Wilt-Lief Liege

Wilt-Leaf LiegeSome people hate Abzan so much they build a deck just to beat it. Abzan Liege, aka Little Kid, wasĀ the product of some of Magic's most innovative minds, working in collaboration between Team Channel Fireball and Team Face to Face. Sam Pardee, a former Pod player, was a big advocate of the deck shell, taking the more aggressive elements of the post-Rhino Pod decks and recasting them in a shell without Pod itself. The result was Abzan Liege, a deck that is designed card-by-card to dismantle Abzan. Liege is the centerpiece of this strategy. She's a lord that pumps the rest of your team. She's Decay/IoK proof. And between her and Loxodon Smiter, your opponent is locked out of using Lily's +1 at all. Her pump effect is extremely valuable against Abzan, breaking open stalemates against 4/5 Rhinos, Goyfs, and Tas's. She's awesome with Lingering Souls too; as anyone who has played BW Tokens can attest, an airforce of 2/2 flyers is much scarier than a flock of 1/1s. Liege is a great example of a card that is nasty against Abzan but also relevant in other matchups. She's always a lord for your squad and always a 4/4 for four mana.

Batterskull

BatterskullBecause Stoneforge Mystic is banned, Modern players seem to forget how powerful a card like Battereskull can be even in her absence. This card is an absolute monster against Abzan. Unless discarded by Thoughtseize, it just never dies and never stops applying pressure. Like Liege, the card is IoK/AD-proof. But unlike Liege, not even Lily or Path can reliably hit this card. Singleton removal like Slaughter Pact is just as ineffective. As the siegelike nature of the card suggests, BSkull is excellent at gradually grinding an opponent down. Just sticking it on a Spirit token is often scary enough to break open a gamestate. 5/5 flying, lifelink, vigilance creatures are really hard for Abzan to deal with using just landlocked 4/5s. That Spirit token (or anything else you stick the Skull on) will swing for 4-5+ life and then block to gain an additional 4-5+ life the next turn. Or it will take an Abzan creature with it to the grave before you suit something else up. Skull is great in this metagame for control decks that need to quickly get back in the game after stabilizing. It applies pressure and replenishes your life total, which makes it relevant against both grindy decks and more aggressive, damage-based ones.

Outpost Siege

Outpost SiegeAs usual, no techĀ article would be complete without some uncommon/odd technology choices. Siege, a direct import from the Standard metagame, is such a card. Like Bob, Siege gives you +1 card per turn to bury your Abzan opponent under a tide of card advantage. Unlike Bob, Siege is much harder to remove. Only TS and Pulse actually kill this card in the Abzan maindeck, which is a distinctive advantage over something like Chandra, Pyromaster -- she's still a good card against Abzan (see the end of the article), but her vulnerability to interaction makes her less reliable. Siege is also completely painless, which makes it feel like a Phyrexian Arena without the lifeloss. This makes Siege surprisingly relevant in other matchups, even more aggressive ones where life totals matter. Sure, you don't want to play this on turn 4 against an unstable Affinity board or a Twin player with 5 cards in hand, but in many other gamestates it's a great topdeck that can ensure refueling over the rest of the game. It's a solid 2 copy inclusion in your red-based deck, especially if your metagame tends to be Abzan heavy or generally grindy.

The key when picking maindeck cards against Abzan is they should be relevant against at least 1-2 of the other tier 1 decks in the format. Or, if they aren't relevant there, against at least 3-4 of the tier 2 ones. This ensures that you aren't over-metagaming for Abzan at the expense of other matchups.

Deck Choices to Beat Abzan

As is often the case with Modern decks, your best way to beat Abzan isn't always to tailor your maindeck/sideboard for the matchup. Sometimes it's to play a deck that is just plain good against Abzan in the first place. Here are three ways to pick Modern decks to give you an edge against Abzan players.

RACE 'EM

Race Em

Sensing a pattern with the How-to-Beat articles yet? I've said it before and I'm saying it again: Modern is a proactive format where you want to GIT 'ER DONE as quickly as possible. There are lots of ways to be proactive in Modern, but the best way to apply that against Abzan is to just be fast. Play lots of threats, apply lots of pressure, and make it impossible for Abzan to answer everything on a one-for-one basis.

Burn is the archetypical fast deck in this category. Indeed, its Modern rise is in large part attributable to BGx Midrange, which it rose to combat (see GP Kobe in summer 2014 and the surrounding months). Infect is another example of this, both in its ability to recover from one-for-one exchanges, itsĀ innate resilience (Vines of Vastwood to stop removal, Inkmoth Nexus immunity to everything but Path, etc.), and, of course, its raw speed.

There's a reason PT Fate Reforged was both the PT of AbzanĀ andĀ the PT of Infect and Amulet Bloom, and that's because pro players took this "RACE 'EM" advice to heart. But don't forget about other aggressive decks -- Merfolk and Bogles especially -- when looking for options in this category.

Go all-in anti-Abzan

Metagame Em

Some players metagame against Abzan by throwing in a Batterskull and some Souls and calling it a day. Other players build their entire decks around Wilt-Leaf Lieag. When a deck comprises 13%-14% of the metagame, you can take metagaming to the next level. Don't just play a few cards to beat Abzan; build your entire deck around clobbering Abzan and hope you have enough ammunition to stay relevant elsewhere. Abzan Liege was a breakout deck at PT FRF because it followed this strategy, and it has remained relevant beyond the PT on the back of both its Abzan matchup and the relevance of its cards elsewhere. Even against decks that don't play Lily, Loxodon Smiter is still a 4/4 for 3 mana that can't be countered (Zoo players know this well). Decks built around Blood Moon have a ton of strengths in this metagame, not least against Abzan; accelerate Moon out on turn 2 via Simian Spirit Guide for maximum table flipping. Add some pressure to your Moon deck and you have a strategy that wrecks Abzan but retains relevance elsewhere. Or maindeck Leyline in an enchantress deck. This is the philosophy behind Abzan Liege, and it's highly applicable elsewhere.

Play a different game

Ignore Em

Abzan is trying to play fair and interactive Magic. The further away from that you can get, the better equipped you will be to beat Abzan. The absolute best example of this is Living End. While Abzan is trying to answer threats and play efficient clocks, Living End is dumping cards in the yard, actively thanking Abzan players for their discard, and topdecking one of their redundant cascade engines (or just drawing it at instant speed). Turns out Decay isn't very good against a squad of angry Deadshot Minotaur[/card]s and [mtg_card]Street Wraiths. In general, any deck that can blank Abzan's interaction will fall in this category. Other examples of this include Restore Balance combo, Scapeshift, Storm, and a bunch of other decks that want to assemble some win condition and don't care about a handful of disruption spells thrown their way. RG Tron is another anti-BGx strategy that could fit here, but note that the deck barely cracked a 50% win rate against Abzan at the PT. So although Tron remains a good choice against BGx decks, it is likely a lot less powerful against Abzan than it was against Jund.

The Anti-Abzan Armory

It's time to wrap up with another rundown of some of the anti-Abzan tech at your disposal. These are unordered top 5 lists broken down by color, along with an honorable mention to acknowledge a situational or underappreciated piece of technology, and an "It's a trap!" entry to highlight cards you should steer clear of.

White

  • Lingering Souls
  • Leyline of Sanctity
  • Mirran Crusader
  • Rest In Peace
  • Celestial Purge
  • Honorable mention:Ā Valorous Stance
  • It's a trap!:Ā Aven Mindcensor (Doesn't shut down fetches early enough. Stonewalled by Spirit tokens)

Blue

  • Snapcaster Mage
  • Sower of Temptation
  • Tidebinder Mage
  • Threads of Disloyalty
  • Vapor Snag
  • Honorable mention:Ā Compulsive Research
  • It's a trap!:Ā Remand (doesn't stop AD, easy to play around with discard. Good vs. Souls but otherwise an easy ditch in games 2/3)

Black

  • Dark Confidant
  • Damnation
  • Deathmark
  • Bitterblossom
  • Tasigur, the Golden Fang
  • Honorable mention:Ā Pack Rat
  • It's a trap!:Ā Go for the Throat (Remember: Don't try to out-efficiency Abzan on one-for-one removal. It's generally a losing plan)

Red

  • Blood Moon
  • Roast
  • Chandra, Pyromaster
  • Young Pyromancer
  • Skullcrack
  • Honorable mention:Ā Outpost Siege
  • It's a trap!:Ā Through the Breach (Explosive when it works, but too reliant on card synergies; ripped to pieces by discard more often than it works)

Green

  • Obstinate Baloth
  • Eternal Witness
  • Thragtusk
  • Scavenging Ooze
  • Primal Command
  • Honorable mention:Ā CollectedĀ Company
  • It's a trap!:Ā Thrun, the Last Troll (Appears unkillable, but dies to Lily and gets blocked safely by every creature in Abzan. Can't tangle with Tas/Goyf/Rhino either)

Multicolored

  • Wilt-Leaf Liege
  • Keranos, God of Storms
  • Olivia Voldaren
  • Fulminator Mage
  • Sigarda, Host of Herons
  • Honorable mention:Ā Sphinx's Revelation
  • It's a trap!:Ā Abrupt Decay (Not only does this fail the "don't out-efficiency Abzan test", but it doesn't even hit Rhino, Tas, or manlands)

Colorless

  • Batterskull
  • Relic of Progenitus
  • Karn, Liberated
  • Etched Champion
  • Spellskite
  • Honorable mention:Ā Sundering Titan
  • It's a trap!:Ā Wurmcoil Engine (Tron's anti-Jund allstar, but the Path weakness is just so glaring; can't rely on this card alone)

Many of these top 5 lists could easily have been top 10s instead, so don't hold a grudge if I forgot about your favorite anti-Abzan bullet. There are just so many ways to attack the deck and although none of them are gamebreaking on their own, some combination of angles is often enough to defeat Abzan.

In the next installment of the How-to-Beat series, we'll look at the arch-nemesis of Abzan decks and arguably the second most important deck to beat in Modern: UR Twin.

 

EDITOR'S NOTE (4/8): Added a note about RG Tron to the "Play a different game" section.

Making Magic More Accessible

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Gaby Spartz wrote a great article over on Channel Fireball that you've probably already read.

The article has caused a lot of buzz, mostly good, but some bad. Of course, if you're not getting negative feedback then you're probably not doing anything interesting. The long and short of it though, is that all of Gaby's terms are agreeable, and ones that we should abide by- some should even be expanded upon.

Community Cup

Brush your teeth. Wear deodorant. Embrace the "other". Don't be a dick.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 8th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 7th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

Usually Supernova’s prices are a good proxy for market prices. They are not perfect, but they are close. Recently though, their prices for RTR and JOU have been too low, so I’ve put an asterisk (*) beside those set prices. The set price for RTR and JOU on Goatbots is currently 86 and 88 tix respectively.

Apr8

Price declines are painting the MTGO price changes almost completely red for both the weekly and monthly numbers as we get into the DTK release event period. Deploying tix at the moment is a good move as their value is high. Hopefully speculators had completed most of their selling last month in advance of DTK events.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

Paper prices on M14, RTR and GTC look to be resuming their uptrend after a brief pause for the release of DTK. As always, higher paper prices are a signal to expect higher prices on MTGO through redemption. Once DTK events wrap up, prices should normalize and head higher on MTGO.

A prime example of the potential on this type of speculative strategy is to look at how the price of Jace, Architect of Thought has moved in the past six months. It has nearly tripled since it’s price bottomed in the Fall after rotating out of Standard, which isĀ not a flash-in-the-pan price spike, butĀ steady gains that show signs of continued strength.

Longer term, the best period to sell cards from these sets is generally in the month prior to the summer release, for two reasons. First, most of the price increases for a given set will have already materialized by then, and secondly, the summer release offers some excellent speculative opportunities. Speculators should consider the end of June and early July to be a prime period to exit any longer term RTR block and M14 mythic specs.

Theros Block and M15

On the other hand, the sets of THS block and M15 are seeing prices head down in paper, meaning redemption will no longer be supporting prices on these sets. Cards from these sets should be carefully considered before purchase, and there should be a strong bias to selling any current holdings.

The downtrend will accelerate at some point and holding Standard staples while they are rapidly losing utility and value is a bad position to be in for a speculator. Any speculating on these cards should be done with a short-term perspective only, as the longer the holding period, the greater the risk.

For those with a longer-term perspective, junk mythic rares from THS and M15 can be accumulated at the right price. If mythic rares from these two sets hit 0.4 tix or lower, then the prudent speculator should buy up any available copies. Note that this recommendation does not apply to junk mythic rares from BNG or JOU. Smaller sets have less value to redeemers due to the lower number of cards, so there is less margin for error when speculating on these sets.

Tarkir Block

For those that have not already had their fill of KTK, the price bottom on this set is in. Special mention should be made of KTK boosters, which have reached a very low price level of around 1.4 tix this week. Currently, the utility of these boosters is quite low due to not being a part of the most current draft format. They are also still being awarded as prizes in Daily Events and Constructed queues. Add these two factors up and it’s no surprise that the price has collapsed.

Brave speculators should take this opportunity to sock away a few boosters for the future. Once DTK takes the place of KTK in prizes, supply of KTK will have peaked. Also, there will always be some drafters who prefer drafting with KTK over DTK, so demand will increase once the excitement around the new set winds down. This will support higher prices down the road, so take the longer-term perspective and get some KTK boosters while they are on sale.

FRF and DTK are both currently being opened in large numbers with the start of release events. Prices on these sets will be under continuous pressure for the coming months so the best longer-term opportunity for buying cards from these sets will be prior to the summer release of Magic Origins (ORI).

Modern

Similarly to the past few weeks, Modern prices remain flat or are heading slightly downward. With the exception of the cards that are guaranteed to avoid a reprint in Modern Masters 2015, (M12 onwards), investing in Modern is still quite risky as we are getting closer and closer to the release of MM2.

Dragons of Tarkir release events and the incoming Standard Pro Tour are going to attract tix and player’s attention to the Standard format. We’ll probably have to wait until this summer to see Modern prices significantly rise again.

Legacy and Vintage

Last week all of the 269 cards from the MTGO-only set Tempest Remastered were spoiled. A couple of Legacy staples missing from Vintage Masters, Wasteland and City of Traitors, didn’t dodge the reprint this time. Along with these two cards, several of the most expensive cards from Tempest block will be reprinted.

Wasteland and City of Traitors will both be printed as rares in the remixed set. Their prices will unequivocally go down and if you haven’t sold your copies yet, you should do it immediately; these two cards will be much cheaper in two months. The apparent goal of WotC here is to lower the price barrier of Legacy and Vintage. A goal that is more likely to be reached with Wasteland priced below 20 Tix, four times less than a month ago.

While this set has two very high caliber rares, the mythic pool is rather poor. Several of the Tempest Remastered mythics have been reprinted in VMA or in other sets. Eight mythics are already under 1 Tix, with Shard Phoenix and Starke of Rath having virtually no value at all. With no redemption for TRM, there is going to be no price support for unplayable mythics. Only four mythics from this set have a current value over 5 Tix.

Among the notable omissions fromĀ Tempest Remastered are Ensnaring Bridge, Reflecting Pool, Burgeoning, Scroll Rack, the Medallions, Choke and Ancient Tomb. Keep in mind that some of these might also be in Modern Masters 2015. From a speculative standpoint, and with no further reprints in the foreseeable future, Ancient Tomb, Burgeoning and Scroll Rack could represent safe, long-term bets.

Finally, with Wasteland soon to become accessible to the majority of the player base, Legacy and Vintage will see some growth in interest. Although it’s not worth acting on, Legacy and Vintage should benefit from a lower barrier to entry.

Pauper

Pauper cards are still cruising higher. The trend may pause during DTK release events but the mid-term expectations are very good. All Pauper-playable commons from Tempest block reprinted in Tempest Remastered will drop in price, among them: Diabolic Edict, Lotus Petal and Rolling Thunder.

Barely above 1 Tix in January, Exclude is now at 4 Tix, almost an all-time high. If you were holding some copies of this Invasion common, selling now is recommended. Reaching a previous record price is a sufficient reason to close a position for cyclical investments.

Targeted Buy Recommendations

Standard

The basket:
Llanowar Wastes
Battlefield Forge
Temple of Triumph
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Goblin Rabblemaster
Courser of Kruphix
Temple of Malady
Temple of Enlightenment (if you are not holding some already)

We strongly recommend buying a basket of all of these positions. All have seen lower prices over the past three to four weeks but are still among Standard’s most played cards. Some have already started to rebound and the Pro Tour this weekend might give a great boost to any of these cards.

We consider here that a basket of these Standard positions is the best insurance for overall profit. These constitute a short-term spec (2 to 4 weeks at most) as the rotation of Standard will start putting downward pressure on prices soon and MM2 will also attract players and Tix in just two months. Look for the sell recommendation on this basket of cards at some point over the next month.

Siege Rhino (if you are not holding some already)

This card is a Modern staple and has been around 2 tix for a few months now. There’s no shortage of supply, but with the end of intensive KTK drafting, price pressure will be to the upside now.

KTK Boosters

See the ā€˜Tarkir Block’ section above for motivation on purchasing these. If you are unsure of whether or not pursuing this strategy will be profitable, then buy 10 boosters as an experiment. Leave your name in the comments section stating that you have done so as a record. If these are less than 2 tix by September 1st, Matthew Lewis will pay 20 tix for your 10 boosters (ie 2 tix a piece).

This offer is only valid on the first 10 boosters purchasedĀ and is not valid for higher quantities. This offer only triggers if the secondary market price of KTK boosters is 2 tix or less on September 1, according to available market prices, such as the price listed at goatbots.com.

Targeted Sell Recommendations

None.

Testing Collected Company Elves: Video

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collected company elves

Last week I went in-depth on Collected Company in Elves, and threw together a strong starting brew for what I believe could be the best way forward for the little green guys (and gals). Today I put that list through some preliminary testing in the MTGO tournament practice room to get a feel for the list and to get an idea of what we should change before diving into a more competitive setting. See for yourself below.

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Collected Company Elves in Action

I'm currently missing Spellskite, Cavern of Souls, Horizon Canopy, and Pendelhaven, so the list in the video is a little different to what you saw last time. But this is preliminary testing and the core is very much there, so it doesn't hurt much. Also, I'm testing Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx because CurdBros -- an MTGSalvation user and Modern Nexus reader -- saw very good results with it in his brief testing of my list.

Elves by Sean Ridgeley

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Heritage Druid
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Devoted Druid
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Elvish Archdruid
3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
3 Fauna Shaman
1 Eternal Witness

Instants

4 Collected Company
3 Chord of Calling

Lands

15 Forest
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Sideboard

4 Essence Warden
1 Scattershot Archer
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Choke
1 Reclamation Sage

I face four different decks in the video: Grixis Delver, Storm, 4c Slivers, and Scapeshift. Excepting the two rough tempo losses against Delver due to never drawing a second land, Elves performs very well and consistent overall. In theory, Elves should be heavily favored against Delver, since it plays fair and we do not. Electrolyze can be a pain, but we do run a lot of 2 toughness creatures, and Pendelhaven will help with the 1 toughness guys.

Testing Impressions

Some things to take away from this:

  • A lot of Elves players will say the deck just fine on one land, but this is often not true. It's why I run 18 instead of 17 ( and there's an outside chance we should run 19). 17 or less is appropriate in Legacy where there are more ways to work through a one land game, but Modern requires more. 18 land felt very good in these games (again, excepting the Delver games).
  • With Grixis Delver on the rise, Scapeshift still a bit of a thing, and Twin very much a thing, Cavern of Souls should probably be in the maindeck. In combination with Nykthos and with both cards in the right amounts (maybe 3 of each), there should almost never be casting issues. The GGG cost on Chord might dissuade you, but remember creatures can count toward it.
  • This deck is fast. Thanks in part to Nykthos, it's entirely possible to win turn 3. Statistically, especially considering disruption, it'll probably happen 10% of the time or less, but it can happen, and that's important.
  • Nykthos lines up mathematically very well with the rest of the deck, particularly Ezuri. Often I had just the right amount of elves to power up Nykthos, activate Ezuri, and swing for lethal (other times I had an extra mana or two for regeneration backup). Needing to tap less elves to use his ability means more attackers, which means a quicker deck.
  • 3-of Nykthos and Chord feels right. Neither were an issue at these counts (excepting one game where I opened with two Chords), but I suspect they would be at 4.

chord of calling

  • Eternal Witness should probably be sideboarded or cut. She's good, but slots are limited. Spellskite and Ooze mainboard (more, if we already run either) are going to be useful more often in that slot instead. Witnessing a Company is cute, but usually unnecessary; her ability to recur creatures is nice, but usually too slow to matter in my previous experience.
  • Fauna Shaman does work and is a great way to help fill the void left by Glimpse of Nature and Green Sun's Zenith, along with Chord and Company.
  • Choke is stupid good, as usual. We should maybe run more.
  • Splashing white is probably a good choice for certain metas (e.g. Aven Mindcensor vs Scapeshift), but generally speaking, monogreen is best, especially when we consider Nykthos.
  • The Fauna Shaman/Vengevine plan sideboard could still be worth testing, at least for certain metas.
  • Chord and Company at instant speed are great weapons against disruption; often you'll wait for them to tap down mana, then cast either. Or they wrath and you cast either at the end of their turn and recover. It's equally effective and satisfying, which is part of the reason I'm completely convinced now that Chord should be in the deck and not Summoner's Pact.

Updating the List

Based on that, below is my updated list, which I'll take to a daily soon.

Elves by Sean Ridgeley

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Heritage Druid
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Devoted Druid
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Elvish Archdruid
3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
2 Fauna Shaman
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Spellskite

Instants

4 Collected Company
3 Chord of Calling

Lands

11 Forest
3 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
3 Cavern of Souls
1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

4 Essence Warden
1 Scattershot Archer
1 Spellskite
3 Scavenging Ooze
2 Choke
4 Reclamation Sage

Closing Thoughts

The 4 Sage plan is something I picked up from MTGSalvation -- I like it with Company and could see it proving strong or at least sufficient versus Affinity and Auras. Failing that, we swap some out for Fracturing Gust.

The board is still something of a work in progress. I'll feel more or less confident in it as I play with the deck more. Once I'm satisfied, I'll be sure to fill you guys in on sideboard plans.

Stay tuned, because this one has promise. If it lives up to it, there will be plenty of daily footage to come.

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