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Commander 2014 Spoilers – 10/26/14

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So far there hasn't been much development. We've known for months about the first few cards and a few more were spoiled this weekend. Let's dig in deep and see what all of the cards mean.

Teferi, Temporal Archmage

This card is ticking all of the right boxes. First of all, he's a Planeswalker. People love Planeswalkers. Good players love how playable they usually are. Bad players love how playable everything is, but having Planeswalkers to them is a status symbol. Being a Planeswalker is good financial news for Teferi.

Secondly, Teferi has a unique ability (so far). We don't know how many future Planeswalkers will be playable as Commanders, probably few if any. This makes him unique and gives him an additional excuse to get played.

Thirdly, his ultimate is a little tough to build to but it's very worth it. As your commander, his shenanigans are limited. As part of a Superfriends deck, Doubling Season and Chain Veil can help you get that ultimate going and make your planeswalkers ruin their day. His emblem lets you activate your planeswalkers' abilities x times a turn cycle where x is the number of players at the table. That's huge. Huge I tell you. This card is splashy and very cool.

He's also in a $30 precon. Could he be worth more than $30 in the short term? Yes, he could. True-Name Nemesis and Scavenging Ooze are proof enough of that, but with Teferi unlikely to see play in Legacy as a 4-of, it's unlikely. What is likely is that this guy will be pretty collectible. It's doubtful he'll be reprinted for a while, so Japanese non-foil or another rare language are likely to be the "pimp" version. I think this is likely going to end up around $10-$15 which is not bad. If there is another very worthwhile card in the same precon he's in, it could be less. I'll write about what we learned from Commander 2013 later this week.

Ghoulcaller Gisa

A potential commander, Gisa is not all that playable as a general but has potential in other decks. Sacrificing a creature already doomed by a removal spell or lethal combat damage is hardly a drawback and sacrifice enablers are welcome in the format. Pair this with Grave Pact effects to really make them pay. Is this card going to be as financially relevant as Teferi? That all really depends on whether it ends up a good Commander. I'm pegging this card at sub $5, especially if the mono-black Commander deck has good cards in it.

Stitcher Geralf

10/10 for flavor, but this is an odd, clunky general for a mono-blue deck. He's most likely to end up in some sort of zombie deck, perhaps with Thraximundar at the helm. Milling each player a little bit and potentially exiling up to two cards and getting a 1/1 or 2/2 zombie seems pretty weak. I am calling this sub $5 as well. He's a cool card but not a particularly good one.

Angelic Field Marshal

In and of itself, this card is OK. 4 mana for a sometimes 5/5 is not super great in EDH, frankly. What is relevant about this card is the spoiling of a new mechanic, Lieutenant. This ability triggers when your Commander is in play on your side, which incentivizes you to run it out of the command zone, protect it and keep it from getting tucked. Still, why doesn't the angel grant +2/+2 to all of your creatures as well as vigilance if you trigger Lieutenant? It seems like that would maybe be too good for 4 mana and you're going to have Lieutenant triggered more often than not. I'm not super excited about the cycle of Lieutenant cards, that being the case. This is actually less exciting than the Archetype cycle from Theros block. This seems like a bulk rare to me, provided the mono-white deck sells. Still, let's keep our eyes peeled for a card with a good Lieutenant ability because that could be a game-changer.

Feldon of the Third Path

Now THIS I can fap to. Mono-red artifact-based decks have been fun and cool in EDH since time immemorial and getting sweet new gas is no reason to expect that to stop. Powerful enough to be a general but fitting in to an already cool deck like Bosh, Iron Golem or Slobad, Goblin Tinkerer this guy gives you access to dead creatures and new artifacts to copy, fling, transmute; you name it. Not only that, you don't remove the dead creature from the graveyard so you could make a Solemn Simulacrum token that you sacrifice to its own liability every turn cycle until you find something better to do. Goblin Welder wants to party with this guy. Kurkesh, Onakke Ancient wants to party with this guy. Your mom wants to party with this guy.

Will how good he is in a one-of format drive his price above roughly $5? I don't know that it will. He's going to get opened exactly as often as worse cards and the MSRP on the set will enforce a total price for every card in the deck. Could he end up the same price as other cards in his cycle like Gisa and Geralf? Yeah, I could actually see that. It's not fair, but finance isn't a meritocracy when sealed product is involved. He may have a mythic symbol but he's printed as many times as a "common" found as a 1-0f in the commander decks. We'll see where his price goes, but for now, I'm not preordering singles from this set or anything.

 

 

More Satire Done Right

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A while back I shared a piece of Magic satire on here, and it seemed to go over fairly well. So today we're back with more!

icatianmoneychanger

And of course it's relevant to current events.

As thousands of magicians spent their weekend casting spells, a true illusionist put all of their planeswalking to shame. The minds of the Magic community were mystified as professional illusionist Victor “Fantastico” Dante took down a large Standard tournament in Tampa, Fla. this past weekend with the flair and finesse only a true showman could provide. Through a series of insane antics and well-practiced sleight-of-hand tricks, Fantastico dominated the tournament with a still-unknown deck archetype.

As usual, The Meadery delivers. You can read the rest of the article here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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When Recognizing a Card is Good isn’t Good Enough

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Way back when Avacyn Restored was released, I recognized right away that Zealous Conscripts was a rather powerful card. A 3/3 creature with haste at five mana is decent on its own, and adding in an Act of Treason—one that snags planeswalkers, no less—just added some huge upside. It probably would have gotten a little more hype than it did had it not been part of an Intro Pack.

avacyn-restored-intro-pack-red-white-zealous-conscripts

Of course, the fact that it was an intro pack means that the card started at a dollar, and so I started picking them up in trade. Before long, the card was topping out curves in aggressive red decks and acting as another powerful creature for Standard RUG Birthing Pod decks. Its subsequent spike to $5 validated my initial assessment of the card, and I felt damn proud.

Soon enough, the card started seeing play in Modern RUG Birthing Pod decks, too, acting as a five-mana combo piece to go with Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker. I sold a bunch of copies at the peak price, but I held even more believing that being both Standard and Modern playable would lead to an even higher price. As the card dipped through rotation, I held onto a couple last playsets...which now reside in my bulk box.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zealous Conscripts

Going for an Intro Pack rare was my first mistake. My second was not paying attention to the fact that it usually was not a four-of. I was only beginning to get into MTG finance at that time, so it's easy to see these obvious mistakes in retrospect. But most of all, the problem was that it was a large set rare in a set with lots of cards that were high in value.

Khans of Tarkir is similar. You might be looking at a particular rare that is obviously powerful, is already seeing play, and/or has a nice buy-in price. By all means, take these opportunities when you think you can make a profit. But learn from my mistake: sometimes a card can be good in multiple formats, but the sheer number of copies on the market will keep it from ever going too high in price. I've learned the hard way over the last couple years not to be too greedy. When you have the opportunity to sell out and get profit in hand, remember that a card's power level is not the only thing that determines its price. Keep this in mind as Khans of Tarkir cards start their inevitable declines.

Insider: The Real Costs of Entering Standard

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After Return to Ravnica-Theros Standard was dominated by Mono-Black Devotion for the better part of the year, the all-new decks in the field are a real breath of fresh air. Many players gave up on Standard last year, but with the new format in town, they're looking to get back in.

For today's article, I've chosen eight different decks from the format. I'll be breaking down each one by cost according to TCGplayer mid, and top buylist prices according to Trader Tools.

Let's start with the big kahuna of the format:

Abzan Midrange by Ari Lax

Creatures

2 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Siege Rhino
2 Wingmate Roc

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
4 Abzan Charm
3 Hero's Downfall
2 Utter End
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
2 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Temple of Malady
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
2 Llanowar Wastes
2 Caves of Koilos
1 Mana Confluence
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Temple of Silence

Sideboard

1 End Hostilities
3 Drown in Sorrow
1 Unravel the Aether
1 Duneblast
3 Bile Blight
1 Liliana Vess
1 Mass Calcify
2 Murderous Cut
2 Nissa, Worldwaker

This is the deck that Ari Lax used to win Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. It is, kind of by a lot, the most expensive deck in the format: its TCGplayer mid value comes out to $758.26. That's a lot of money, but conveniently, the deck buylists for $536.37.

A Crash Course in Set Value Loss

So the simple math is just to subtract $536 from $758 to give us a grand total of $221.89, right? ...Right?

That may be true if you're only playing the deck for one event, but most people who invest in a deck are going to play it for a while longer than that. Let's say you're going to play the deck through May and take the summer off. In general, what's the difference between card prices in October and May?

For the sake of simplicity, I just looked at large fall sets, but I'm certain this math would change if we incorporated other sets. This, at least, gives us a baseline. Note: all values cited below come from MTG Goldfish.

The value of a full set of Innistrad on this day in 2011 was $300.80. The same set on May 30 of the following year was $173.20, a 42.42% loss. Return to Ravnica was worth $341.10 on October 24, 2012, but was worth only $197.10 at the end of the following May, a 42.22% loss. Theros lost only 39.16% of its value, going from $350.10 to $213 from October 2013 to May 2014. Pretty consistently, new sets tend to lose around 40 percent of their value from shortly after their release to the following May.

What about the older sets in Standard? After Innistrad's release at the end of 2011, Scars of Mirrodin was worth $231.50 and dropped to $169.10 right before it rotated, a 26.95% loss. Innistrad lost less in Return to Ravnica Standard, going from $232.20 to $206.80—only a 10.94% loss (probably explained by the growing interest in Modern at this time coupled with all the Modern staples in the set). Return to Ravnica was more comparable to Scars of Mirrodin, losing 24.87% of its value in the corresponding time period ($270.60 to $203.30). So the previous year's set loses about 20 percent of its value from October to May.

Okay. Again for simplicity's sake, let's assume decks are roughly made up of half cards from the current block, half cards from the previous year's block. That would mean that, on average, a deck is likely to lose 30 percent of its value if purchased on October 24 and sold on May 31.

This means that Lax's deck will buylist next May for $375.46. If you buy in for $758.26, that means you'll end up spending $382.80 on the deck.

Hobbies cost money, of course, so spending money to play Magic is fine. There's also the consideration of prizes you may win with the deck. If you crush FNMs weekly for $25 or $50 store credit, you may end up playing the deck for free by the time you end up buylisting it. If you win a major event like a PTQ, GP, or SCG Open, you'll be considerably ahead.

Knowing how much money you are actually putting down to play Standard can help you select a deck that fits your budget best. Some players want to win and will spend money to get there, while others just want to be competitive with the cheapest reasonable deck in the format. Let's take a look at seven other decks you may consider playing for the next several months.

The Other Big Deck

Jeskai Wins by Shaun McLaren

Creatures

1 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Mantis Rider

Spells

4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
4 Jeskai Charm
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Dig Through Time
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Banishing light
2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lands

4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Mystic Monastery
4 Temple of Triumph
2 Shivan Reef
1 Battlefield Forge
4 Flooded Strand
2 Island
1 Plains
3 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
3 Dissolve
1 Phyrexian Revoker
2 End Hostilities
1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Erase
2 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Negate

There are several different builds of Jeskai Wins out there, but McLaren's seemed like a good baseline to go with. That guy's been playing Jeskai since it was UWR!

McClaren's deck can be purchased at TCGplayer mid for $451.71 and currently buylists for $298.22. Once we factor in the 30 percent loss, that goes down to $208.75. So you'll need to make up $242.96 in winnings to break even with the deck.

The Budget Build

Boss Sligh by Eric Pei

Creatures

4 Akroan Crusader
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Monastery Swiftspear
3 Frenzied Goblin
1 Arena Athlete
2 Hordeling Outburst

Spells

4 Titan's Strength
1 Coordinated Assault
2 Lightning Strike
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Hammerhand
4 Dragon Mantle
1 Hall of Triumph

Lands

18 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Lightning Strike
2 Peak Eruption
1 Goblin Rabblemaster
3 Searing Blood
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Magma Spray
1 Scouring Sands

This deck retails for all of $90.20 and buylists for $52.38. Most of the cost of the deck is tied up in sideboard copies of Eidolon of the Great Revel and Goblin Rabblemaster. This is a true budget build that has proved it can perform, though decks like this don't always stick around for the long term.

You should be able to buylist this deck in May for $36.66, meaning you only have to make ups $53.54 to play for free this season. You could handle that at your next two FNMs.

I Like to Control Things

U/B Control by Ivan Floch

Creatures

4 Prognostic Sphinx

Removal

3 Bile Blight
2 Drown in Sorrow
4 Hero's Downfall
2 Silence the Believers

Disruption

4 Despise
4 Disdainful Stroke
4 Dissolve
2 Thoughtseize

Selection/Draw

4 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Dismal Backwater
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
1 Temple of Malady
1 Temple of Mystery
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Island
4 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Bile Blight
3 Clever Impersonator
2 Drown in Sorrow
1 Pharika's Cure
2 Negate
1 Pearl Lake Ancient
2 Returned Phalanx
1 Set Adrift
1 Silence the Believers
1 Thoughtseize

I could go with the slightly different version of U/B Control run by some members of the Channel Fireball team, but this one made top eight, guys. (Never mind that Owen Turtenwald was a virtual top eight, losing out only to breakers.)

Control decks tend to be some of the more expensive choices in a given format, but this one only costs $356.31, less than the burn deck! Buylists now total $237.77, or $166.44 after the 30 percent dip. That's a difference of $189.87 if you sell in May. Keep in mind that you might need more Pearl Lake Ancients and Perilous Vaults.

I'm Still Playing Last Year's Deck

G/R Monsters by Daniel Scheid

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
2 Rattleclaw Mystic
4 Courser of Kruphix
3 Polukranos, World Eater
1 Ashcloud Phoenix
4 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Genesis Hydra
1 Hornet Queen

Spells

4 Lightning Strike
3 Crater's Claws
3 Xenagos, the Reveler
2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lands

4 Temple of Abandon
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Windswept Heath
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
7 Forest
6 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Ashcloud Phoenix
1 Crater's Claws
3 Destructive Revelry
2 Genesis Hydra
1 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
1 Unravel the Aether
2 Hornet Queen
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
3 Anger of the Gods

This is a known quantity from last year, and it's still a thing, as it managed to take down Grand Prix Los Angeles. The deck will set you back a cool $544.01, with expected buylist value of $261.56 next May.

Making $282.45 is a little tougher than most of the other decks, but hopefully you already have the many Theros staples and have won some prizes with them already. That certainly mitigates things.

If There's One Thing I Hate, It's the Simic

Mardu Midrange by Brad Nelson

Creatures

4 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Hordeling Outburst
4 Butcher of the Horde
3 Wingmate Roc

Spells

4 Lightning Strike
4 Crackling Doom
3 Chained to the Rocks
1 Murderous Cut
3 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lands

3 Battlefield Forge
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Nomad Outpost
4 Temple of Triumph
2 Caves of Koilos
1 Temple of Silence
6 Mountain
1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Magma Spray
2 End Hostilities
2 Anger of the Gods
3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Read the Bones
2 Glare of Heresy
2 Banishing Light

This is a pretty cool deck if you like tokens, removal, fatties, planeswalkers, or burning stuff. It will set you back $483.56 to build from scratch, returning $223.18 in May. It's not the most cost-effective deck out there with requiring $260.38 in winnings to break even, but it runs Butcher of the Horde. So...yeah.

Big Knucks for President

Temur Midrange by Andre Batista

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
2 Heir of the Wilds
4 Savage Knuckleblade
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Stormbreath Dragon
1 Keranos, God of Storms

Spells

2 Lightning Strike
2 Stoke the Flames
2 Stubborn Denial
1 Temur Charm
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
2 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
1 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
2 Xenagos, the Reveler

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Yavimaya Coast
4 Frontier Bivouac
2 Temple of Mystery
2 Temple of Epiphany
2 Shivan Reef
2 Mountain
4 Forest

Sideboard

1 Reclamation Sage
2 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Disdainful Stroke
2 Feed the Clan
2 Lightning Strike
2 Magma Spray
1 Windstorm
1 Harness by Force

I never expected Feed the Clan to break through in Standard, but here it is, squeaking into the top eight of SCG Worcester. I suppose it blanks more than two cards of burn from Jeskai Wins, which is something.

This one comes in at $513.16, with expected buylist value in May at $243.72. That's less than 50 percent of the buy-in price, but you get to play with a bunch of planeswalkers and Big Knucks. Seems worth it to me. Personally, I think this looks like one of the more fun decks in this article.

Get to the Combo Deck, Already

Jeskai Ascendancy Combo by Lee Shi Tian

Creatures

4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
3 Kiora's Follower

Spells

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
4 Retraction Helix
4 Commune with the Gods
3 Tormenting Voice
3 Dig Through Time
4 Dragon Mantle
2 Twinflame
2 Briber's Purse
1 Nissa, Worldwaker

Lands

4 Mana Confluence
2 Frontier Bivouac
2 Temple of Abandon
2 Temple of Mystery
2 Temple of Plenty
2 Yavimaya Coast
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Flooded Strand
1 Plains
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Forest

Sideboard

4 Savage Knuckleblade
3 Lightning Strike
2 Polukranos, World Eater
3 Swan Song
3 Arc Lightning

If you like to be as uninteractive as possible, this deck is for you. I am relatively certain that the sideboard cards are mostly there for show, since you can't really dilute the combo too much. I'm also not sure that the one-of Nissa is completely necessary to the deck. Removing those pieces will bring the price of the deck down considerably.

With those pieces included, the deck comes in at $382.95. Taking out the Nissa and sideboard cards will bring it closer to $300. Unfortunately, the deck is only expected to buylist at $147.70. If Jeskai Ascendancy is banned in Modern, expect that number to be slightly lower. If not, expect it to be slightly higher. The deck didn't perform as well at last weekend's events, so you may want to wait a bit to see if it can still work when people know it's a thing.

That's all for today. I hope I helped you make a decision on whether to buy in to Standard, and if so, which deck is right for your budget and play style. The format certainly seems like fun so far. I may even pick up some Knuckleblades myself.

Spellslingers: Silly Magic

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The awesome series is back, and with a fun new episode this time around!

elspethsunschampion

I don't know if you regularly follow the group or not, but it's a series of fun Youtube videos of the incomparable Day9 playing Magic, usually with awesome guest stars. This time is no different, and it's well worth the watch.

You can find the full video here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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[Podcast] Insider Stories: Going Big with Kyle Lopez

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Hi! We've got a new Podcast series here on QS called Insider Stories. Each week, I'll be interviewing a QS Insider to talk about how they trade and what's going on with Magic Finance.

This week, I had the pleasure of interviewing Kyle Lopez of Aether Games. A year ago, Aether Games didn't exist; today, it's a powerhouse of an online card shop. If you've ever wondered what it takes to run a shop - or how much work it takes - you don't want to miss this interview.

Here's this week's show (right click to save)

 

This week, we hit on:

-Whether you can run a store as a weekend gig

-If stores are right to cancel orders when a card spikes

-What card Kyle regretted selling

and plenty more!

You can find Kyle here:

@itsyourboyLOPE

aemtg.com

You can ask questions and post comments here or tweet to me – @quietspec is where you’ll get ahold of me!

 

(also, my apologies that this sounds like we recorded in an aquarium. I've got a good mic but my audio processing skills are, shall we say... rapidly improving as I learn more)

 

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Posted in Finance, Free, Insider Stories, Podcast5 Comments on [Podcast] Insider Stories: Going Big with Kyle Lopez

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Grand Prix TBD and the Not-Yet-Existent Announcement of Modern Masters 2

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The first Modern Masters was announced at Pro Tour Return to Ravnica in a special segment with Aaron Forsythe. The following Monday, "Modern Masters Explained" was published. The date was October 22, 2012.

modernmastersexplained
I never thought I would reach the point where I missed that website layout.

I very much expected that we would get the announcement of Modern Masters 2 at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. I do believe the set  is coming, and am kind of surprised we haven't heard about it yet.

Then again, Wizards of the Coast was obviously scared of another Chronicles fiasco back in 2012, and one could see the team deciding to make the announcement early in order to let people sell their cards if they wanted to. Since Modern Masters was such a huge success, WOTC may not feel that as early an announcement is necessary (and they're probably right about that).

For what it's worth, Conspiracy was announced on February 14 of this year, and assuming the products fill the same slot, maybe we'll be forced to wait until next year for the official announcement. Of course, Planechase (2012 edition) was announced in November 2011, so who even knows at this point? WOTC is generally extremely consistent with the timing of announcements for expert sets, but supplemental products seem to have different priorities.

gptbd

In any case, #GPTBD is now a thing, and though the location hasn't yet been confirmed, it's pretty clear it will be in the western half of the country, given the TOs:

cfb+cascade

So: how long do you think it will be before Modern Masters 2 is announced?

On “Greasiness”

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Occasionally I'll get a good idea and this year was no exception. Noticing that there were quite a few people in the /r/Spikes subreddit writing "tournament reports" in the form of long text posts in the subreddit, I offered everyone the chance to write them up on BrainstormBrewery.com so they would benefit from having them read by an editor and formatted professionally. Decklists look better in a table where you can hover over the card to see an image of it and being published on a website just seems better than farting out a text post in the equivalent of notepad. Some people were naturally suspicious, but lots more took me up on the offer. One of them was Max Perlmutter, a grinder and resident of the Philadelphia area.

Max has produced a few well received pieces for the site, but his best one came this week when he realized "Hey, I played that scumbag Trevor Humphries recently and he knocked me out of the Top 8!" Max put together a great tournament report that doubles as a great detailed account of what Trevor did to knock Max out of contention with a combination of psychological warfare and repeated deck-stacking shenaningans. It's a brief read, but if you're interested in the Humphries case it's a good one.

The real revelation came when the article was posted to the /r/magictcg subreddit and the top comment (it's since been downvoted to the middle of the pack) didn't concern Humphries' inherent greasiness but rather Max's own when Max asked an out-of-contention opponent for a concession that would put Max in the Top 8. "Greasiness isn't my word, either.

 

Untitled

 

All of this started a nice debate. Is it "greasy" to ask an opponent to concede? Does it make sense for two guys on the bubble to both miss the cut to Top 8 because "that's how the match turned out" or "Why should I let him win if there is nothing in it for me?" Experienced players are likely to consider refusing to concede when it would mean at least one of you made the cut to be greasy.

Osyp did a great interview about the subject and the culture of Magic at high levels. Some people aren't aware of the etiquette at higher levels, but most players who have been there before know what's up. Osyp refers to it as "paying it forward" and while you can't ask for packs in exchange for a concession, you can have faith in humanity and hope your opponent does the right thing. Having been in that situation myself a lot, if you're not "greasy" it is obvious what is right. If I took the majority of the time in the match and I'm the reason we didn't finish the match or my opponent has much, much better breakers, it's obvious that the onus is on me to concede. The times my opponent has scooped me (including into 9th place, twice. Daggers...) I have given them some packs, and not as a payoff for scooping me, but rather because they would have gotten more packs if we'd drawn and they should have some sort of remuneration for doing the right thing. If you ask me, people who fold their arms obstinately and say "Well, I guess we both draw then" or don't give their opponent any of their packs if they're scooped are the greasy ones.

Don't be afraid to ask an opponent for a concession if it would put you in the Top 8 and a draw would keep you both out. It's not "greasy" or "collusion" (unless you try to explicitly bribe them with packs or some other consideration - don't do that) it's good, solid game theory.

What do you think? Is it wrong to ask for a concession? Is it wrong to ensure both players miss Top 8? Leave it in the comments section. Got your own "on the bubble and one of us needs to scoop" story? Leave it in the comments section.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Analyzing Hasbro’s Third-Quarter Earnings

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It’s that time again, the most exciting time of the year! No, I’m not talking about Khans or draft or really, anything directly related to Magic.

Instead, it’s earnings report time! If you don’t get the sarcasm, it’s because this time of year lots of annual reports come out, and financial journalists have to write dull articles reporting on the results on all of them. It’s a pretty hated time of the year for them.

Fortunately, I only have one annual report I care about! Unlike some of the other finance minds in Magic, I don’t play the actual stock market other than to simply park all my funds into a well-managed Mutual Fund and let compounding interest do the rest. So, since I only care about Wizards’ annual report, I actually look forward to writing these rather than dreading it.

If you’re wondering why we even care about Wizards of the Coast’s annual report, it’s because of what I’ve termed the “secret” reason for growth in the price of cards. For the last several years people have pointed at new cards and new formats and exciting developments, and they’ve cheered as the cards went up without understanding this basic truth of the matter:

Player growth has been on an insane upward trajectory for the last five years.

That’s been one of the biggest catalysts of growth in that time period, much more so than some universal truth of “Magic cards always go up.” It feels that way because the game has done nothing but grow for the past seven or eight years, and that’s more than enough to create that narrative.

In that context it makes a lot more sense why the annual reports matter. This is where we get our only glimpse into how Magic is doing as a brand. It’s not perfect, but it’s more than we get just from looking at things from the outside, so I think it’s well worth exploring.

Digging In

So, how did we do this time around? I’ll start with the most important piece of news.

"Franchise Brands are up 36 percent year-over-year. All seven brands grew double-digits year-over-year."

That’s the most important thing there is, and it exists in the Earnings Presentation Hasbro presented to investors. While the year-to-year comparison looks at the third quarter of 2013 compared to the third quarter of 2014 and takes into account revenue rather that players, this is huge news. Year-to-year growth of at least 10 percent is huge, and that’s great news moving forward.

Next up:

“Segment operating profit in the U.S. and Canada increased 16% in the quarter, reflecting the higher revenue levels, favorable mix and improved expense leverage in the quarter despite being partially offset by a challenging environment in Canada. We also continued to invest in our business including support of key initiatives such as MAGIC: THE GATHERING.”

Great news again. Again we see not just revenue increasing, but profits as well. We also have “continued investments” in Magic. I’m not sure exactly what that means,  but I imagine it’s Organized Play investments as well stuff like the Duels of the Planeswalkers expansion and the like.

“MAGIC: THE GATHERING also grew globally, increasing in both the U.S. and Canada segment and International segment. The response to the July release of the Magic 2015 Core Set and September release of Khans of Tarkir positions the brand well into 2015. We believe there is tremendous future potential for MAGIC: THE GATHERING as it continues to grow around the world. We are investing in the brand, both in digital and analog play, through technology and storytelling.”

Just some fancy language here to say that “stuff is selling!” I find the inclusion of M15 in that a little odd since the high price of the set clearly shows it hasn’t been opened all that much, but it still seems Magic as a whole is chugging along well, and that includes M15.

Another really important note here is the future growth they believe there is in the digital market. That means that, regardless of what see of from the outward perception of Magic Online, there is some money continually being put into it. Hopefully that will (someday) result in a more stable client.

Then came the Q&A session, and while I don’t know who Sean McGowan of Needham and Company is, he’s a hero for asking specific questions about Magic, including how well the newest releases have done. Here’s the answer to that question from the president and CEO of Hasbro.

BRIAN: “Yes, Tarkir has been a great release. The fans have really enjoyed it thus far. Still early days, because you know it’s just been released. We talked about earlier in the year the fact that the releases really do matter. This is a storytelling brand first and foremost and engagement with characters is critical. So this is on track with our expectations and Magic continues to demonstrate both short and long-term great potential and we continue to invest in the brand both on the analog and digital side as we see great opportunities not only for this year, but for many years to come in Magic and growing it as a true global brand, as one of our major franchise brands.”

SEAN: And are you seeing an increase in the percentage of the total revenue that’s coming from digital?

BRIAN: "Yes, we continue to see digital continue to grow over time and we’d expect over time that it would continue to grow.”

Another interesting tidbit from the Q&A is this:

BRIAN: “So year-to-date Magic is up mid-single digits. In the quarter it was up double digits. So it’s the momentum is building but Magic year-to-date through the third quarter was up.”

Takeaways

That’s actually a decent bit to work with. I would love to link you to the full transcript, but it’s not available without paying for it, so that doesn’t do anyone much good.

But the news is good. Magic may not be growing at the 20% clip it was for a year or two, but as long as we’re positive in terms of revenue we’ve got a growing game. While we don’t know exactly what that single digits is, it’s upward growth and the faith that Hasbro seems to have in the brand is certainly appealing.

The note about Magic Online is also interesting. I know people say it has nothing going for it, but we see it’s still growing in terms of percentage of revenue for the game, and that means it’s not going anywhere, nor is it buckling under the weight of competitors like Hearthstone. All good things for the future of the brand, and of your investments.

We have a few more months until the final report comes in, and I hope that in that one we get a little more concrete info, given that it will be an end-of-year presentation.

Until then, all the news from Hasbro seems to be positive. Slowing growth, yes, but still positive growth and none of the warning signs like declining revenue we saw last quarter.

Full steam ahead!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88

 

Speaking of moving forward, the next stop for me is Worlds weekend in Nice, France in December. I’ve been added to the coverage team for the event, and I’m really excited for the opportunity. If any of you are lucky enough to be there, I’ll see you there!

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Standard Tokens

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Recently at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir, Brad Nelson played a sweet deck that didn’t initially catch my attention. As I was reviewing the successful decks from the event, thanks to Corbin’s article, I came upon it once again.

This time I saw it in a completely different light. I’ve been working on Purphoros, God of the Forge decks ever since the card was spoiled and with a new format surrounding us, I started down the path of breaking him once more. So, when I saw that Brad had already been successful with a similar shell to what I was building on, my heart leaped for joy.

I didn’t quite like some of the card choices he made, but the fact that he was successful with a similar strategy filled me with hope. Here’s his deck that he did well with at the Pro Tour.

R/W Tokens (by Brad Nelson)

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
3 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster

Spells

1 Titan's Strength
4 Chained to the Rocks
4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
3 Searing Blood
4 Hordeling Outburst
4 Stoke the Flames
2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Lands

4 Temple of Triumph
1 Wind-Scarred Crag
4 Battlefield Forge
11 Mountain
3 Plains

Sideboard

1 Wind-Scarred Crag
3 End Hostilities
3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
3 Chandra, Pyromaster
2 Suspension Field
1 Hammer of Purphoros
2 Banishing Light

This version of the deck is geared towards a very aggressive role with usually one early creature and then burn spells to follow up. Playing Monastery Swiftspear turn one and following up with burn spells to kill their creatures and Sarkhan to finish them off, for instance, is a common winning line of play.

I will say that Chained to the Rocks is at its best in this deck and is one point in favor of this version. Making your removal so cheap allows you to play two spells a turn in the mid game and that allows you to pull further ahead of your opponent or catch up if you’re behind. Still, Monastery Swiftspear and Searing Blood seem awkwardly positioned in this metagame and I don’t think that utilizing them is the best thing we can be doing. Much of the meta is midrange or control decks now and we need more tools to fight them.

My thought process for the deck was closer to Brad’s sideboard plan against decks that tend to play out over more turns. Basically, board into more planeswalkers to gain card advantage over your opponent and give yourself more viable threats over the course of the whole game. My starting point was Purphoros and I built the deck trying to abuse this powerful Theros god. Here’s what I’ve been testing.

R/W Tokens (by Mike Lanigan)

Creatures

4 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
3 Purphoros, God of the Forge

Spells

2 Gods Willing
1 Suspension Field
3 Lightning Strike
3 Raise the Alarm
4 Hordeling Outburst
2 Banishing Light
1 Spear of Heliod
3 Stoke the Flames
2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Lands

4 Temple of Triumph
2 Wind-Scarred Crag
4 Battlefield Forge
7 Plains
7 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Hushwing Gryff
3 Magma Spray
2 Crater's Claws
2 Deicide
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
1 Suspension Field
1 Hammer of Purphoros
1 Banishing Light

Purphoros! Turn three play Brimaz or Rabblemaster then turn four play my favorite god and trigger him on the attack. This is part of my ideal sequence for the deck.

If you have the choice of three drops, save your Hordeling Outburst for after you draw Purphoros. It seems obvious because six free damage just for playing your spell is ridiculous, but still important to remember. Sometimes you need to override this line of thought though, like if you think your opponent is holding up mana for a removal spell, often you can play Outburst to blank their removal.

This deck is testing quite well so far and I’ve been really pleased with the results. I’m a little worried about any pseudo-mirror matches like Mono Red or Jeskai so I may try to find room for Ajani Steadfast in the sideboard to help gain some life back. Seeker of the Way can help with this, but often he's killed on sight because of his ability to help in racing situations.

Originally I had Chained to the Rocks in this deck but once I removed more mountains for non-basic lands, being able to chain a creature was not reliable enough. Banishing Light and Suspension Field are more expensive which is unfortunate, but they are definitely powerful enough to be used in this deck.

Gods Willing is a new addition to the deck. I just cut one Brimaz and one Raise the Alarm for two Gods Willings. Players are not respecting the existence of this card so often it will be a complete blow out. In many games, your opponent will only have one or two removal spells, so the tempo and additional damage you gain from protecting one of your major threats can win you the game. This protection spell is also great against Bile Blight so all of your tokens don’t get removed by one spell. I need to test this change more, but I think it’s a step in the right direction.

You may have noticed Magma Spray in the sideboard. This card is not getting enough love in Standard right now. It is so good against many of the red threats right now and I think players are getting too caught up in the bonus scry 2 from Magma Jet to give this card a try. When your opponent has cheap creatures or Ashcloud Phoenix, there’s no better card to bring in than Magma Spray. So remember, when you are shooting lava at creatures, spray it, don’t jet it.

While I was building this deck, the original version also had blue mana for cards like Jeskai Ascendancy. The red-white version brings more consistency, but I do like the card advantage aspect of the blue inclusion. I have not determined which deck is better, but here is where I was at with the Jeskai Tokens deck.

Jeskai Tokens (by Mike Lanigan)

Creatures

3 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
2 Purphoros, God of the Forge

Spells

1 Suspension Field
3 Lightning Strike
3 Raise the Alarm
2 Negate
4 Hordeling Outburst
1 Banishing Light
3 Jeskai Ascendancy
1 Bident of Thassa
3 Stoke the Flames
2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Treasure Cruise

Lands

4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Temple of Triumph
2 Mystic Monastery
2 Battlefield Forge
2 Shivan Reef
3 Flooded Strand
3 Plains
3 Mountain
1 Island

Sideboard

3 Hushwing Gryff
3 Magma Spray
2 Crater's Claws
1 Deicide
1 Negate
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
1 Hammer of Purphoros
1 Suspension Field
1 Banishing Light

In this deck, the manabase is consistent enough to support the third color, but you must take some extra damage in order to do so as well as occasionally lose tempo because your lands come into play tapped more often.

Adding blue does come with additional benefits though, like Negate. There are so many potent non-creature spells right now, that I even included a couple Negate main deck. It protects your creatures from removal as well as prevents your opponent from playing some of their more potent spells. Maybe that’s too ambitious of a main deck inclusion but I think it seems great in the meta right now.

With only a couple blue cards making it into the deck, I’m leaning towards the version without blue mana, but Bident of Thassa plus tokens may be too great an interaction to pass up.

Financial Implications

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hordeling Outburst

Brad has been pronouncing Hordeling Outburst to be amazing all over the internet. It’s an uncommon but the card is amazing. I’m sure you can find some copies in draft leftovers and this is a card players are going to want. It will be even better once Bile Blight rotates out of the format, but even now it is still quite good.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elspeth, Sun's Champion

In case you haven’t noticed, this six-mana powerhouse has been trending upward for the past month or two. I’ve been moving Elspeth, Sun's Champion steadily at each price increase and I don’t expect that to stop anytime soon. She is $27 now and I could see her going even higher. This should be no surprise to any of you. I hope you picked up your copies while they were under $20 at the suggestion of other writers here at Quiet Spec.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Triumph

The Boros temple is the only Theros temple that is on the move, and for good reason. With all the Jeskai decks playing this land as well as the Boros decks in addition to any players trying to win with Naya, this temple is seeing a tremendous amount of play. It has potential to rise even more from where it’s at right now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Battlefield Forge

The non-Caves of Koilos pain lands have jumped up a lot in recent weeks, and since the price bump have steadily been creeping up a little more each week. These lands are the core of most manabases in Standard and could easily increase even more from where they are now.

Hopefully you stocked up over the summer, but if not, there is still time to trade into these lands before they go up even more. Battlefield Forge may be the biggest gainer, but the other ones are not far behind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brimaz, King of Oreskos

I don’t know about you, but when Brimaz popped up over $30, I was surprised. Most of the time, I don’t see him getting much play. We all know he is powerful and I try to play him all the time, but most successful decks leave him out of their lists.

Regardless, his price has surged upward in the last few weeks. Since the summer, he has doubled in price! I would be extremely surprised if he increased much more in value, so now seems like a good time to lock in some profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Purphoros, God of the Forge

Despite not seeing much constructed play, Purphoros has remained one of the financially relevant cards from Theros. In fact, he is still the highest valued god from that set. If decks like mine start creeping into the metagame, we could see a quick double up from the god of the forge. I believe in Purphoros because with how my deck is set up, he is good at every stage of the game even the turn you play him.

Trade for your Purphoros’s now. They are a good long-term investment with possible short-term implications as well. Most competitive players devalue him as well, so they will be eager to trade them to you.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hushwing Gryff

If you followed my advice from last week, you have some Hushwing Gryffs in your possession now that are worth twice as much as they were last week. If the metagame progresses like it has been, I expect the gryff to continue to grow in price. We could easily reach $5 in a month or before if the card continues posting good results. I’ve been selling quickly even at $3 and I would be sold out if I hadn’t purchased more last week as I suggested everyone to do.

Well that’s all for me for this week. Have you been jamming some games with Red-White? What does your version look like? Is Purphoros the way of the future or just a casual card that I keep trying to make good enough? Let me know in the comments.

Until next time,
Unleash the Token Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

When You Want To Lose the PTQ

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I've heard bad beat stories. I've seen players get top-decked out of existence. I even won a PTQ Top 8 match when my opponent (playing Extended Elves) completely whiffed when going off and, after I wiped his board, died to his own Pact).

There are bad-beat stories across Magic. We all have them, and we all love telling people about them.

Gavin Verhey's story is better than yours. Or worse, depending on how you look at it.

"I’d been playing on the junior circuit and hadn’t wanted to risk picking up a Pro Point and losing my eligibility. Playing on a Pro Tour would remove my junior status.

I was in Phoenix at the time, and there was a PTQ coming up, so I diligently traded to build my deck up and then decided to play in the event just as practice for the GP..."

You can read the full story here. Spoilers: sadness is ahead.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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See How The “Humphries Cheat” Works in This Video

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The community is abuzz with the latest cheating scandal from last weekend. I'm sure aficionados of shady play will say this method has been around for a while, but it's the first time I've seen it done by someone who knows what they're doing. And even when word first got out and I knew there was something to watch for, it took a few viewings and some well-timed stills to really catch the cheat in action.

shuffle

Yesterday, Chad Aldrich posted a great video showing exactly how the cheat works and how it is done. He shows us slowly what's going on, then performs it at normal speed. The camera is placed from the vantage point of where you would be if playing against him. Again, even knowing that something shady is happening, it's not necessarily easy to catch.

Remember: when in doubt, call a judge. If your opponent appears to be looking at your deck, especially if he or she is shuffling with the cards visible, you should be at attention to watch for this kind of shadiness. Skilled cheaters likely get away with it for years before being called out, so if something doesn't feel right, you may not be able to catch it by yourself. Call a judge and get a second pair of eyes on the situation.

Check out Aldrich's video below. It's well worth the time for anybody who plays any level of paper Magic.

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