Spoiler season for Khans of Tarkir is in full swing, and the newly revealed cards have not disappointed. Besides the reprinting of allied colored fetch lands, we’ve seen a multitude of powerful multi-colored spells and creatures, a planeswalker clone, and a new wrath effect. This fall is shaping up to be record-setting.

In the world of MTG Finance, there has also been a rekindling of excitement from Khans spoilers. A number of Standard cards have shot up in price in anticipation of what the new Standard format will become. Some of these price jumps were slam dunks, while others I believe may be questionable. And at higher prices, some of these speculative picks may not have nearly as much room for profit as they once did.

This week I will look through some of the Standard movers and shakers over the past week and will specify my stance on each one based on where they currently stand. After all, the price at which you paid should be irrelevant when determining when you sell. With all the significant price movements of some cards we need to be making conscious decisions whether or not we wish to continue holding or even acquiring more. If not, then it’s time to sell.

MTG Stocks Interests

Here are the top movers over the past seven days according to www.mtgstocks.com/interests.

I wasn’t kidding when I said Khans spoiler season was making a splash. I count ten Standard legal cards (not including Forest) that are in the list above, most of them up at least 20%! Some of these certainly merit their recent bumps, but others may be getting expensive at their new prices. Allow me to explain further.

The Top 3: Courser of Kruphix, Goblin Rabblemaster, Mana Confluence

These three Standard legal cards have increased 51.4%, 44.4%, and 34.0% respectively. Talk about significant returns! Those who owned these cards more than a week ago likely made significant bank on their investments.

I tip my hat to you – personally I only had a small position in Mana Confluence at the beginning of spoiler season. I had some Rabblemasters but I sold them promptly after their breakout a few weeks ago for quick profit. I own 0 Coursers.

But now that Courser of Kruphix jumped so high, I can’t justify acquiring them at the new price.

In fact, it appears based on the recent downward trend that many players agree with me. Courser of Kruphix is just not worth acquiring at $16. If this was a stock chart, I’d go as far as to say that $17.50 is a point of resistance for this card. Twice the card’s price peaked at $17.50, and twice it has pulled back from that high. From a technical standpoint, the recent trend indicates a sell.

Now, of course, this is a Magic Card and not a stock – there is no true resistance. The Centaur is likely to see plenty of play in the new Standard thanks to the return of fetch lands. That being said, I believe it will see less play than Thragtusk saw in Standard due to its more restrictive double Green mana cost and its redundancy in multiples (gaining more life is neat, but having a bunch of 2/4’s won’t win you games). Thragtusk peaked at $24 according to mtgstocks.com.

Based on this relative comparison, I’d say Courser likely peaks no higher than $20. Because of the recent spike and immediate downward trend, I advocate selling this card here to mitigate risk unless you need them for play. The upside is too small versus the downside.

Goblin Rabblemaster, unlike Courser, is going up in price because it is seeing play in current Standard and not because of anticipated play in future Standard.

The goblin warrior went from near bulk to becoming a $7 card in just one month! Talk about your penny stock yielding incredible returns!

That being said, I’m not sure what upside remains on this guy. The new Standard is still very ill-defined and it’s unclear whether or not Goblin Rabblemaster will still have a home. Even if he does, I don’t know how much higher his price can climb. Maybe $10 is a reasonable peak?

One positive that Goblin Rabblemaster does have going for him is his current upward trajectory. People are still buying copies of this card even at the current price. It may peak soon, but there may also be a little more upside left. I can never encourage greed and there is certainly risk of holding this guy too long. As soon as he becomes obsolete in Standard his price will tank. Once again, remaining upside just looks too small compared with potential downside. I’d advocate selling into this spike if you still have copies.

The number three Standard mover is Mana Confluence.

Now this is a card I can get behind! With so many aggressively costed, multi-colored spells in Khans, I have to imagine Mana Confluence sees plenty of play. Fetch lands will certainly have a hand in mana fixing, but I believe Mana Confluence will also have a spot in many decks. The card is maximally robust and can be played in any multi-colored deck to increase color flexibility.

Being in Journey Into Nyx also means there are fewer copies of this card than people think. This means the price ceiling is a little higher. Currently the card is at around $16 and I think $20 is inevitable.

Unlike the previous two cards, however, this one doesn’t fit into a specific archetype. Many decks will want to use this land come the new Standard. For this reason, I believe downside risk on this card is small even at this higher price point. I can’t advocate buying here with cash, but trading for a few more copies by giving up overpriced Khans cards at your pre-release would be a solid strategy. I’m holding my copies a bit longer because I do not fear a sudden drop off and the current momentum is very positive.

Other Noteworthy Cards

I’ve been on the sidelines watching Soldier of the Pantheon’s recent rise very closely. At one point I was very close to buying up a handful of copies, only to talk myself out of the decision.

While a 33.3% increase is impressive and I regret missing the boat, I am not confident the card will see much Standard play. Don’t get me wrong – there is definitely a metagame that could exist which would make the soldier very powerful. But Savannah Lions aren’t what they used to be thanks to power creep, so you are really relying on a multi-colored heavy metagame.

And even if there are many three-color decks, there are still plenty of single-colored cards that can get rid of this pesky 2/1. Courser of Kruphix and Goblin Rabblemaster, mentioned before, are two examples.

Sylvan Caryatid has also been on a tear lately, jumping from $6 to $10 in just a couple short months.

The plant defender blocks stuff like Courser of Kruphix and Soldier of the Pantheon all day, while also adding to green’s already-robust mana producing power. This card should definitely see some play come rotation.

Being from the massively opened set Theros, I’m hesitant to predict a price much above $10, but strong mana-producing creatures tend to have surprisingly high price ceilings. I could see trading for a couple of these, but I’m not one for buying in at $10.

The last two Standard movers I want to touch on are Keranos, God of Storms and Temple of Epiphany, two U/R cards that go hand in hand.

Keranos, God of Storms actually jumped before Khans spoiler season began. This was a speculation target based on results in some Eternal formats and potential in Standard. He’s definitely a powerful god, and being from Journey Into Nyx means his supply is smaller than many of the other gods.

Now that he’s hit $18, it’s much tougher to predict where his price goes next. On the one hand, he’s a mythic rare from a small set – his price ceiling could be very high. Even $35 would not surprise me. But the chances of hitting that sort of price point depend completely on how Keranos performs come Standard rotation. If he’s part of a powerful RUG deck – sorry, “Temur” – then his price will be off to the races! If he can’t find a home and Temur isn’t the most powerful wedge of Standard, then this may be as high as his price goes for quite some time.

Personally, I sold my two copies into this hype for the quick flip. The profit was too tempting for me, and I figured I could speculate on Keranos indirectly by holding one of the other top gainers of the week: Temple of Epiphany.

Let’s face it, if a Keranos deck is going to succeed in Standard, it’s going to need some of these lands, right?

Also from Journey Into Nyx, I’ll always favor a third set mana-fixing land over almost anything else. The ceiling on Temple is lower than Keranos’ but the buy in cost is significantly lower and the risk is also much reduced.

Theros block temples have been one of my favorite Standard targets for a while now, and the U/R temple is probably my top pick of the ten. If a Keranos deck succeeds in Standard, this land will be played heavily as a 4-of. But the reverse isn’t true: this land could be played heavily in a Temur deck that doesn’t run many Keranos. I’ll favor the safer card every time because the risk/reward profile matches up well with my general MTG finance approach.

Wrapping it Up

You probably noticed a trend throughout this article, and it’s one that shouldn’t be surprising. Selling unproven cards into hype will always be my recommendation. I take the same stance when investing in the stock market. I refuse to buy stock in a company that hasn’t already demonstrated profitability. Do I miss out on some major opportunities, such as Amazon (which by the way still isn’t profitable)? Absolutely. But it also means I avoid unnecessary risk while locking in sizable profits.

To hold onto Courser of Kruphix here, for example, just seems reckless. The card is a rare available in Clash Packs. He’s not going to see the same level of play as Thragtusk and doesn’t deserve a price tag over $20. Since he’s already $17 and dropping, why hold and risk solid profits for that last 10%? I’d much rather sell and move funds into something that hasn’t spiked yet such as other temples.

Temple of Epiphany was the most obvious pickup because of Keranos’ recent popularity and being the third set in its block. But I can guarantee other color combinations will be played, and they will heavily rely on the appropriate temples for mana fixing. There’s still plenty of profit to be made there.

It all comes back to buying low and selling high. A friend of mine used to repeat a useful quote over and over again whenever we talked stocks, and the saying applies to MTG Finance as well: “There are only two prices that matter when investing. The price you paid and the price you sold at. Everything in between is just noise.”

Don’t fixate on getting that last 10%. Sell your winners strategically (e.g. Courser of Kruphix, Goblin Rabblemaster), hold those with further upside (e.g. Temple of Epiphany or Keranos, God of Storms if you’re feeling gutsy), and acquire cards that haven’t been discovered yet but are likely to be very soon (e.g. other temples).

That’s my recipe for success for any Standard rotation.

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Sigbits

• Star City Games is hosting their back to school sale this month. We can learn about what’s hot by observing what sales are already out of stock. It’s no surprise that Mana Confluence and Temple of Epiphany are sold out at $11.69 and $6.29, respectively. But did you know Temple of Malice and Temple of Plenty are both also sold out at $4.49 and $7.19 respectively? Goblin Rabblemaster is sold out at $8.99!
• More proof that Courser of Kruphix has already peaked lies in the fact that SCG has 22 in stock at their sale price of $16.19, which is even below TCG mid. There are also 27 Soldier of the Pantheon in stock at $2.69.
• I would be remiss to ignore other movers outside of Standard this past week. Maralen of the Mornsong has bounced, indicating the buyout wasn’t as forced as I previously thought. SCG is out of stock at $2.99. SCG is also completely sold out of Blackmail, although I can’t get behind this buyout like I can with Maralen. The discard spell is simply too narrow for my liking.