menu

M15 Limited Focus: Black Removal

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Magic 2015 is now available on MTGO. Let's give ourselves the best chance to win by identifying the pertinent cards in each color. This time, we’ll be taking a quick look at the common and uncommon removal available in black. Not only is it helpful to know what removal spells are available when drafting a particular color, but it helps you know what to play around when facing off against opposing decks.

Common

fleshtodust

As Cardboard Crack has already covered, we've come a long way from Doom Blade at common. It just goes to show how important spot removal is that Flesh to Dust is still playable, and perhaps even good depending how fast the format is. It's definitely the most flexible black removal spell at common in the set, so probably deserves the distinction as best black common removal, despite being no Murder. At least it's an instant, right?

Covenant of Blood has you overpaying by one for a Drain Life for four, but with the upside that you can cast it several turns early if you curve out appropriately. At that mana cost, it's probably not going to be an all-star. A good Limited deck probably won't have more than one, but playing one is probably reasonable.

Crippling Blight is not insane, but it is flexible in that it's good in both in aggro (to get big blockers out of the way) and against aggro (killing x/1 creatures). There is a pretty large number of x/1 creatures in this format, which will make it better than usual. Festergloom will also be better than normal, occasionally blowing out aggro decks. That said, there will be some matchups where it is completely unplayable.

Necrobite is not strictly removal, but it's worth mentioning in that it usually serves that way. Brian Wong and Marshall Sutcliffe of Limited Resources have been arguing about this one since it was reprinted in Born of the Gods. On one hand, it requires so much to go right. On the other hand, you can set up some crazy blowouts when there are multiple blockers involved. Be smart about putting this in your deck and playing it at the right moment, and it may be okay to play a copy.

Uncommon

Stab Wound is back, to the woe of  Limited enthusiasts everywhere. It's a feel-bad to lose to this card, but at least they've bumped it up to uncommon this time. This is a first-pickable removal spell that is extremely flexible and can provide reach in the final turns of the game. Play accordingly.

stabwound

Is Ulcerate the black Lightning Bolt? Probably not, but it seems pretty good. Killing a medium-sized creature for one mana is a great deal, and in the creature removal department, -3/-3 is better than three damage the vast majority of the time. The downside, of course, is that you can't aim it at your opponent's face, and you don't want to discount how much losing three life matters for your deck, either. A deck doesn't want too many of these, but the first is likely to be a fairly high pick.

Finally, we have Nightfire Giant, which isn't strictly a removal spell, but in a deck with Mountains, this can clean up some utility creatures at the cost of five mana per shot. This is going to be one of the better uncommons for decks that can support it, but it's unlikely you'll get caught by surprise when someone plays it and activates it on the same turn.

Recap

Black's removal doesn't seem as deep or as powerful as red's, but it's what we've got. Here's a quick summary of the removal in the format:

Black Removal in M15

Common

Uncommon

Insider: Organized Play Changes and You

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Here I thought all we had to talk about was ComicCon, which was more than enough already. Luckily, Sig took care of that on Monday with an excellent article, and the latest bombshell has fallen to me.

And what a bombshell it is. Organized Play has been completely flipped on its head. Let’s try to first summarize the changes (lucky me, Wizards did it for me).

  • Each advanced store can run one Preliminary PTQ per season, open to anyone who wishes to compete.
  • Stores can choose between running a Standard, Modern, or Sealed Preliminary PTQ during each season, regardless of the format the Pro Tour it leads to is.
  • The winner of a Preliminary PTQ will qualify for the season's Regional PTQ.
  • The first Preliminary PTQ season will run December 2014–February 2015, and the Regional PTQ will take place a few weeks after the end of the Preliminary PTQ season.
  • Anyone qualified for that season's Regional PTQ is ineligible to compete in a Preliminary PTQ for that season.

There are some other changes regarding Grand Prix and Pro Points, but those matter much less to us than the above do.

So I’ll start with what is clearly the most important question on all of your minds: What do we call these new events? I’m partial to “pre-tq” and “PTQ” but I’ve also heard “mini-Q” and “PTQQ,” which seems to be the most popular (because there’s more QQing involved, get it?).

Anyway, I guess we can talk about the rest of it as well, and let’s start at the top.

Every Advanced Store Gets a PTQQ

There’s been a ton of doom and gloom (as always) from players over this, and I think it’s largely overblown. The financial impact is much more of an open question, but I’ll address that as best I can as I go.

Every Advanced store getting a PTQQ brings more Magic to the LGS level, which is where Wizards has always tried to push it. This is a good thing, as it makes the barrier from FNM to PTQ less drastic and gets more Magic being played in-store.

The biggest downside is that for areas in the world with fewer stores, their opportunities to qualify for the regional have decreased. The other major challenge is that it requires a Level 2 Judge to run one of these events, and considering there are zero L2s in Oklahoma this is clearly an issue for us and others in our predicament.

Any Event You Want

While the Regional PTQ will be format-locked to that particular Pro Tour and I think some stores will follow that example, many will just run Standard tournaments since that is the most popular format.

This, of course, means fewer Modern events, and that’s where a lot of the trepidation comes from. It’s a fair point, but I think there are some things that make this a little easier to take than initially predicted.

Modern is an Eternal format. Price changes in the format are more akin to Legacy at this point than Old Extended, which predictably rose and fell every year. With Modern decks being good forever, you don’t see nearly as many people selling their decks at the end of the season, or buying in at the beginning. That’s been made abundantly clear this year, so I think this particular concern doesn’t go very far.

The one that does have merit, though, is simply that there will be fewer Modern events. That is somewhat concerning to me, though I want to point out that while we’re losing some number of Modern PTQs, we’re gaining in-store events that could be Modern. If this system increases the rate of FNM players who transition to PTQQ player, this could work out to a net positive.

All of that said, this does add some unpredictably to Modern. But Magic has always been this way, and it seems like Modern price movements will be more tied to events like Grand Prix and Pro Tours rather than seasons moving forward.

Honestly, this could be an opportunity. Without a PTQ season making it clear which decks are best, we now have more of an opportunity to gain an edge by closely watching MTGO or what is good leading up the Pro Tour or Grand Prix that will bring it to the general public’s attention and create the price movement.

Like I said, I don’t know that this is a net positive for the Modern format in general, but what I do know is that I can see some benefits to it, and as always Magic finance is a niche that rewards adaptability. Things have changed and will be different, but there will always be money to be made.

Regional PTQs

Another point about the PTQQ system, which functions similarly to the Invitational Qualifiers for SCG which have been a success, is that it creates a, frankly, healthier lifestyle for grinders.

I’ve been part of those “leave at midnight, drive eight hours, sleep in the car and then play a PTQ before driving home,” groups, and it’s not a good experience. Instead of people now having to travel every weekend for PTQs sometimes eight hours away, they can now play in the LGS around their state in smaller tournaments to qualify for one bigger one.

Scheduling, of course, is going to be an issue for some people, and there’s really no way around that. But I do know that the best players who before could put up 2-3 PTQ Top 8s a season but maybe not spike one to qualify should be able to qualify locally for the Regional PTQ, where making Top 4 or Top 8 is a much more realistic goal than winning the entire thing. This is a good thing, but it does have some unfortunate repercussions.

Namely, because PTQs will be run in-store, that means that store is much more likely to have the only “booth” at the event. Small dealers who made their money vending at PTQs are basically left out in the cold, as I know some of our forum members have mentioned. There’s no way around this: it sucks. It will likely drive prices up on places like TCGPlayer as fewer cards make it into the hands of the power-sellers there, and that’s also not a great thing for the community.

At the same time, it puts that money into the hands of the LGS. It’s an admirable goal by Wizards, but I wish it didn’t have to come at the expense of financiers. This ironically means that in 2014 dealing locally instead of online is more important than ever.

I wish I had sage advice here to soften the blow, but I don’t. I hope there is a way forward for those of you in this situation, and outside of the obvious stuff like developing a partnership with an LGS or through local social media groups I’m not sure how much there is to do.

One suggestion I do have, if you’re going to try and make it work, is to hit up every store in the area that may have someone walk in about Magic cards, and talk to them about handing out your business cards in exchange for something on your end. This has actually been somewhat successful for me, as lots of places like comic shops that don’t sell Magic nonetheless have people come in with Magic cards to sell, and a lot of the time they don’t mind pointing them in your direction.

My Takeaways

I understand that this article is kind of just a flow-of-thoughts one--it’s where I’m at on these changes that will fundamentally change the system we knew.

  • More business for the LGS is good for them and good for Magic in your area, though it’s worse for small online dealers.
  • I think online prices will rise a little. If we have a lot of Standard tournaments instead of an entire Sealed PTQ season, that’s fewer copies on the market. Coupled with fewer small online dealers, prices could easily tick up a little in the future.
  • Slightly fewer people will qualify for the Pro Tour, but I do believe this makes the system a little more palatable for people who don’t want to grind every single weekend. It also makes it easier to turn FNM players into PTQ players. Grand Prix will also award more Pro Tour spots. This keeps the Pro Tour dream manageable while also allowing Wizards to control the size of the Pro Tour, which they want to feature only the best in the game.
  • Change is scary, and for some it’s not always good. But I believe this is a good step for Magic as a whole.

Of course, those are just my opinions. What do you think?

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, Finance, Free Insider6 Comments on Insider: Organized Play Changes and You

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: Building a Big Green Machine

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

M15 has so many great cards but she is the one who captured so many players’ hearts.

[cardimage cardname='Nissa, Worldwaker']

Planeswalkers are the hardest type of card to decipher the playability of. Cards like Ajani Steadfast or Jace, the Living Guildpact seem like reasonable cards to play in Standard but how good are they exactly? It’s difficult to tell with cards like this until you actually play with them.

Nissa, Worldwaker, on the other hand, is obviously powerful. The only thing you need to do is read her text box to know that she will be good. You may not know whether she will change the face of Standard or not, but it’s easy to see that she is powerful.

When Nissa was spoiled my friends and I all immediately started brewing with her as I’m sure you all did. She seems like a great card to build your deck around and so we got to work tuning Mono-Green Devotion to support her.

The first version of the deck I tried to include crazy awesome things to ramp into like Soul of Zendikar and Soul of New Phyrexia, as well as, that’s right, Worldspine Wurm! It went something like this:

Turn 1: Forest
Turn 2: Forest, Sylvan Caryatid
Turn 3: Forest, Voyaging Satyr
Turn 4: Forest, Nissa, Worldwaker
Turn 5: Forest, Worldspine Wurm

Turn five Worldspine Wurm is certainly sick. When it happens, it may be an amazing play, but you basically have to have the perfect seven to make this sequence happen. If you’re up to it, take this challenge to your FNM and watch the look on your opponent’s faces when your giant monster enters the battlefield. It will totally be worth the effort.

Aside from fun FNM times though, the ramp into giant monsters plan needed to be more focused and M15 gave us another tool to do just that.

[cardimage cardname='Genesis Hydra']

Many players dismissed this rare as just another casual hit for the Commander crowd, but I was onto this one from the get go. What makes this card perfect for this deck is that it is good at every spot on the curve. If you have that eleven mana, great, he will put any permanent in your deck into play, but even if you only have four or five mana, he’s still very good.

This is green’s version of Sphinx's Revelation. Sure you want to rev for seven, but sometimes you have to play a small one first in order to get to a bigger one. Genesis Hydra proved to be one of the core cards in this deck, and the fact that the card you ‘cascade’ into can’t be countered makes this card broken against U/W Control decks.

One of the most exciting reprints in recent memory also turned out to be one of the best parts about this deck. Now that Modern is a popular format, everyone knows how good this card is but that was not always the case for this hidden gem.

[cardimage cardname='Chord of Calling']

The first time Chord of Calling was printed back in original Ravnica Block, it was a bulk rare and didn’t see the slightest hint of competitive play. I’m sure anyone who talked about a Chord of Calling deck would have been laughed out of the room or dismissed as not serious. My playset of Chords was pulled from a stack of bulk rares in a collection I was selling for my friend.

The main reason it did not see play the first time around is because convoke was not a well supported mechanic. There were no tools to tutor for, nor the mana to take advantage of this powerful green instant. Fortunately this time around, we have everything we need, including a list of sweet Chord targets.

[cardimage cardname='Phyrexian Revoker']

First on the list is another cool reprint and also my favorite tutor target. Phyrexian Revoker did see some sideboard play the first time around, but never anything major. While it may turn out the same way this time as well, I will always be packing this hate bear to tutor for.

This little artifact is great against some of the format's best cards. Your opponent plays a planeswalker, Chord for Revoker in response to disable any activations. He can slow down Pack Rat until your opponent can kill him, or stop Thassa, God of the Sea from making things unblockable, or a number of other powerful things. No matter what your opponent’s game plan is, Revoker usually helps you disrupt them.

[cardimage cardname='Reclamation Sage']

With Theros block being an enchantment block, there are many powerful cards that your Sage will take care of for you. Unfortunately, it isn’t powerful enough to take out a god, but other than that it deals with any other problematic permanent.

Because nearly every deck has artifacts or enchantments, my Reclamation Sage has been rocking it out on the maindeck stage for a while now. This is the perfect card to have in your deck as a one of.

[cardimage cardname='Nylea, God of the Hunt']

Having this god as a one-of in your deck is perfect. Much of the time your green god doesn’t do enough and just sits around. She is not worth having in play unless she's turned on. Having her as a Chord target allows you to find her in the situations where she will be at her best though. An instant speed indestructible blocker can be a great way to use your tutor effect.

[cardimage cardname='Arbor Colossus']

With a few extremely powerful flyers in the metagame, Arbor Colossus becomes a great target. Many games you will need to be patient and find a window where you can tutor for him and use his monstrous without fear of him getting killed.

This can be done by Chording at the end of your opponent’s turn and then using the ability on yours or even doing both on your turn because sometimes you have that much mana with this deck. He is also a huge monster that can attack for lots of damage, so no matter the situation, he is never a bad one to draw.

[cardimage cardname='Hornet Queen']

The queen bee herself has made her first Standard appearance and from the first time I saw her in play she has captivated me. With this seven-cost creature in your deck you have the ability to pull out of games that you have no business winning.

Revenge of the Hunted has nothing on this miracle. It doesn’t matter how far ahead your opponent is on the board, there are not many situations Hornet Queen can’t dig you out of. I’ve been extremely impressed with this new green creature.

Many of the other choices for the deck are green cards that have already been seeing tons of play, but I’ll let you see for yourself.

Mono-Green Devotion

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Polukranos, World Eater
3 Genesis Hydra
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
1 Arbor Colossus
1 Hornet Queen

Spells

3 Nissa, Worldwaker
2 Garruk, Caller of Beasts
4 Chord of Calling

Lands

4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
3 Darksteel Citadel
16 Forest

Sideboard

1 Reclamation Sage
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Hornet Nest
1 Netcaster Spider
1 Eidolon of Blossoms
2 Mistcutter Hydra
4 Nylea's Disciple
2 Plummet
2 Setessan Tactics

There are a couple of other aspects of note to the deck.

[cardimage cardname='Burning-Tree Emissary']

The core of this deck is still based on devotion. Burning-Tree Emissary is in the deck to enable Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. Certainly there will be times when you have nothing to play with Burning-Tree mana, but dealing with those draws is worth it because of how explosive he can make other draws.

[cardimage cardname='Darksteel Citadel']

Some of you may be pointing at Darksteel Citadel as an unnecessary inclusion but I would caution against removing them. Rarely do these colorless lands affect your game in a negative way, but when you draw them in conjunction with Nissa, Worldwaker, they become a powerful weapon that your opponent will have serious trouble stopping.

[cardimage cardname='Polukranos, World Eater']

While Polukranos is nothing new to Standard, he is the bread and butter of this deck. Often the best thing you can do with your eleven mana is monsterous your World Eater to kill a bunch of their guys. Polukranos is also a frequent target for your Chord of Calling because most games are easier to win with your best monster on your side.

[cardimage cardname='Sylvan Caryatid']

Lastly, I want to talk about Sylvan Caryatid. I’ve seen many players running Voyaging Satyr instead of the staple accelerator. While Satyr does provide you with higher upside, the risk of not having hexproof is too great to include him over Caryatid. Sure untapping your Nykthos is a broken interaction, but in the matchups where they can kill your Satyr you will be hard pressed to defeat them while you are squeezed on mana.

The sideboard is built for my local metagame so if yours is different, adjust accordingly. The deck is a blast to play though and it is incredibly good. Post your thoughts below. I’d love to hear about how this deck is doing for you or if you’ve found other sweet Chord targets to include.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Green Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Foil Judge Lands Confirmed

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

We saw the spoiler art a while back, and now it's official: there are some beautiful new lands entering circulation through the judge program.

The new lands, with art done by Terese Nielsen, are as awesome-looking as advertised. I'm not a member of the judge program, but I hope that these soften the blow of the removal of Judge Foil packets from Grand Prix.

Thanks to Art Halavais on Twitter, we now have some confirmation of these things.

Pretty nice lands.
Pretty nice lands.

I don't know exactly what the opening price will be, but it's going to be worth it, in all likelihood. These things are great, and people who want them are going to want enough of them to fill out decks.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Buying, Feature, Finance, Free5 Comments on Foil Judge Lands Confirmed

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Watch for Falling Skies

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's been an odd week for announcements.

First, the PTQ structure is going to be changing. This is good for the LGS owners, but the mid-level vendor, a significant number of whom make up our readership, are already feeling the pinch.

Untitled

 

With stores likely to be able to vend the smaller events without help and the PTQs themselves being handled by TOs, there is nowhere for the midlevel vendors to fit in like they used to at 300 person PTQ events. Having given Nick a hand at a PTQ and seen how thin the margins can be sometimes if the event is poorly run by the TO (they told people the wrong location and didn't wait for stragglers to show up) this is going to cause a sea change in the way a lot of vendors do business. Should we all close our online shops down? I can't say, but I feel like Nick's going back to TCG Player vending and I can't say that I blame him.

I have a policy against posting things from Facebook on public places, but there was another issue that popped up this week regarding the changes to the judge foil compensation program and I will excerpt a few of the responses I saw.

If this change is positive (which I assume it will be for judges), then I look forward to what we have in store and seeing you guys a bunch in the future. If this change is negative, I have friendships that I hope will last the rest of my life and memories that I'm sure will. I also have some sweet lines on my resume and more professional connections than I could have ever had staying at home. I also look forward to seeing you all slightly less in the future.

Change is scary. It has always been scary, but there's no point in fearing the future. Just live in the present.

I actually feel worst for the TOs...they are assuredly getting wrecked in this

I think a person who got into judging because of their love for the game will always be taken care of. Maybe less travel more community building or maybe the reverse who knows. In the end if you love it you will always be rewarded.

This is a scary time for judges. The announcement of the "Exemplar Program" found at this link has done away with blanket awarding of foils to judges in consideration for working events. Judges will be nominated as exemplary by their peers (friends, let's be honest, people are going to nominate their friends) and only exemplars will receive foils. Will the TOs have to pick up the slack and compensate judges? Will Wizards start to pay them? I can't say, but this has the potential to completely ruin all of Magic forever, and I can't imagine this would have been announced if that outcome was projected. There is an element we don't know yet, so I will wait and see.]

Is the sky falling? Maybe. But probably not. Card games that make it 20 years do so by weathering worse storms than this. Change is inevitable.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free4 Comments on Watch for Falling Skies

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

This Week On Insider (Plus last week’s winner UNLOCKED) – July 20th – July 26th

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Sylvain Lehoux - Nine Months of Portfolio Management-Quick Flips & Very Short Term Specs

Sylvain tackles the bulk of his portfolio with his quick flips of the past nine months. Here, you'll read about how he chose the cards he did; how long he held them; and what price he sold at. This can make big profits - he had a 134% gain, after all - but it requires a lot of attention on the markets to get it right! This article covers the difference between a quick flip and a short-term spec and Sylvain shows you times when he got out at the right time - and a few when he was left holding devalued cards.


>Read More...


Paul Nemeth - [Video] Out with the Old and in with the New

Paul has got some CRAZY games in with a BUG Vintage deck sporting Deathrite Shaman and Null Rod, along with other monsters - like Edric, Spymaster of Trest!

Paul's videos are always a good time because I learn so much tight play. He's the MTGO Player of the Year for a reason and he patiently explains his choices. It's so cool to hear his reasoning on choices and see them play out - it's a good reminder that even the best players have to take a pause to figure out what's going on sometimes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Edric, Spymaster of Trest


>Read More...


David Schumann - Branching Out

This week, David dives into the other ways to turn bulk into money. He brings up selling 1,000 count boxes full of cards as "instant collections" on Craigslist, which sounds like a decent plan - but a real effort to make $10 apiece! Still, it beats selling bulk to stores. David also mentions power commons and uncommons, and while that's nothing new - he brings up a good hack. He suggests checking out Pauper decklists, since those represent the most powerful cards in the common slot and they can be worth a quarter or more to buylists. Here's what he has to say:

Looking over decklists for these formats (especially Pauper, as decklists are readily available here) and looking up a lot of the cards in these decks we see commons going for $0.2-$0.5. While this doesn’t sound like a lot, it means that if you were to pull out those cards from your bulk (where they are likely sitting) you can easily trade/sell them for 67x-166x what you would get for them selling them as bulk. Granted this takes considerably more time then just handing a box of cards to a store, but the payoff can be big. After all, if I learned anything from my experience buylisting at GP Atlanta it’s that nickles, dimes and quarters can add up quickly.

 


>Read More...


Ryan Overturf - Greed and the Art of Mulligans and Manabases

How greedy are you when you're mulliganing? Ryan apparently dances with the Devil on this one - he's got an atrocious one-land keep that you've got to see to believe. I think he makes a solid case for keeping it, though - and it's hilarious that his opponent slammed him for keeping after Thoughtseizing him to check things out.

Ryan also shifts over to Standard, where there's a very real question of greed when it comes to how many Temples you want to run. If you're on a two-color deck, you can run 12+ temples and scry just about every turn. However, that's going to slow the deck down considerably. I think Ryan does a thorough writeup on how to know when enough is enough.


>Read More...


Sigmund Ausfresser - Assessing the MTG Finance Landscape

Part history, part prediction - Sig talks about the price flattening trend that's been happening this summer in Modern and how you can capitalize on it. There are several pics Sig outlines that have reached the bottom of their price flattening - they're good pickups right now. Additionally, Sig highlights Vintage and Casual cards as great pickups, saying this:

These are the only formats that have NOT been experiencing price pullbacks lately. Power remains strong and Star City Games cannot keep stuff like Mana Drain in stock.

I’ve been focusing a lot of attention on Vintage deals lately, and they’ve paid off for me rather well. It has been possible to negotiate towards “older” Vintage prices only to sell nearer to the “new”, higher prices. This strategy can’t last forever, but as long as players sell Unlimited Moxen for under $500, profits can be made.

More and more, the Reserved List looks like an index of "what's guaranteed to stay valuable."


>Read More...


Jason Alt - I Remember My First Time

Do you remember the first time you bought a collection? Jason regales us with his hilarious first time out, talking about meeting a guy and looking through the box that contained his rares:

I cracked open the fat pack box and plunged in. Merfolk of the Pearl Trident.Battering RamConservatorGoblin Balloon Brigade. Pristine, pack-fresh 4th Editioncopies. It was as if they had been removed directly from the booster pack wrappers and placed reverently into the fat pack box that didn’t exist in 1996 and sealed for posterity. I was stunned. The cards in the 5,000-count boxes were kinda jacked up. Finding pristine4th Edition cards where I expected to find a box full of valuable rares was so surreal and confusing that I didn’t even register anger or disappointment until I was halfway through the 70 minute drive home.

How do you avoid getting burned when you're buying collections? Jason has awesome advice for this - how to see what's worth your time, how to set a real value, and what to do when you're there and disappointed. This article resonated with me. Jason's gone through a lot of collections and I could see my experiences in his article - finding an entire collection that never saw sleeves, seeing beat up fetchlands and now-worthless foils.

Buying collections is typically the best return in Magic finance, and Jason shares his collected wisdom to save you heartbreak.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Conservator

 

>Read More...


Mike Lanigan - M15 Top 10

Mike is our resident brewmaster and his article this week is full of his top ten M15 cards and a big stack of also-rans, all potentials for transforming Standard. Mike has pegged Hornet Queen as an easy inclusion for monogreen Devotion, saying "of course there are ways to deal with all the tokens simultaneously but if you can’t, that’s a lot of deathtouch to fight through."

Mike also pegs Frenzied Goblin as a role-player and I agree. People look past that little monster, but he makes aggressive decks very scary - now you have to leave back two blockers to munch through Boss Sligh's minions, for example. Mike's also got four Planeswalkers on this list - you'll find out which ones will shape Standard if you're an Insider.


>Read More...


Corbin Hosler - Breaking Down Hasbro’s Earnings Report

Corbin jokingly starts off by saying that each day, Magic finance and stock finance get closer and closer together. This week, he took a look at Hasbro's quarterly earnings report with investors. This is where the company tells large institutional investors what's been going on with their company over the past three months. Magic is a significant part of Hasbro and so it was a significant part of the conversation. Corbin unpacks it all for the reader, telling us what is important and what didn't get said.

First off, Magic's earnings are down for the first time in a long time. This is important because it causes executives to lose their mind, not because Magic is dying. It means that Hasbro might exert pressure to make more money on Wizards again. I read it as making more boxed sets likely, and in fact - with the announcement of the first four duel decks being reprinted - it's hard not to see a correlation already.

Corbin gives his usual calm and measured analysis in a must-read for people who want to make money from Magic.


>Read More...


Adam Yurchick - Grand Prix Boston Modern Metagame Primer

If you're just getting into Modern or you're looking for updated gauntlet decks for testing, Adam has pulled it all together for you here. While this is themed toward what you'd see in Boston, it's still a great guide going forward. Adam also shows us the fringe decks in the format (Possibility Storm?!?) to prepare you for the more loony decks floating around.


>Read More...


Dylan Beckham - Ghost in the Machine

Dylan drops back from the strategy of individual finance actions to look at our processes that we build for success. For example, he reminds us to keep moving - objects that move tend to stay moving. Keep trading, selling, buying, playing. It's not the most finance-focused article because it backs up and looks at building more commitment to see success. I liked Dylan's article and I'm glad we've got mental theory works going up!


>Read More...

 

Winner of the Week and Last Week’s Winner UNLOCKED!

I really enjoyed reading Ryan Overturf's "Greed and the Art of Mulligans and Manabases," which will be unlocked next week for readers of this column. Ryan walks us through some very unconventional choices. I learned a lot about analyzing mulligan choices, which is an under-respected technique in Magic. I'm sure I'll be referencing this one for the future!

 

Last week, I picked Scott Fielder article, Brewing In Vintage as the winner. This week, it’s been unlocked for you to read for free. If you like the article, remember that we've got excellent strategy articles like this every week for Quiet Speculation – another great reason to give Insider a try!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in FreeTagged , , Leave a Comment on This Week On Insider (Plus last week’s winner UNLOCKED) – July 20th – July 26th

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Luis Scott-Vintage?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

We all have our favorite MTG content producers, and for quite a while, mine has been pro player Luis Scott-Vargas. Work and personal distractions may cause me to miss various pieces of content during the week, but the one thing I never skip is an LSV draft video. In my opinion, he describes the thought process behind his plays better than virtually any other pro player who produces recorded content.

Watching his videos will teach you to think ahead by several turns and to always be consciously aware of your plan to win, even at times when victory may seem impossible. He's also a great example of a calm approach to the game—he is often described as untiltable, even in the face of ridiculously bad luck. And if you like puns, well, just be ready.

Other video content producers can learn a lot from LSV. He edits out long delays caused by his opponents and the initial deckbuilding process, giving us less downtime in videos. He plays quickly, which is something we all appreciate from our MTGO opponents, but it's even more important for MTG videos you might be trying to fit into a busy day. He avoids long silences, keeping his audience entertained throughout his content. And he always treats his opponents with respect, whether it be in chat or just the way he talks about them during a video.

In my opinion, the most entertaining draft ever recorded by LSV was his tenth M13 draft, published way back on September 16, 2012. This draft is entertaining enough that I re-watch it a couple times a year. His win in match one, game one is a wonder to behold.

But I have to admit something today: I've been disappointed lately when LSV posts a new draft video. The reason why?

power9

Yeah, ever since LSV started posting Vintage videos, his draft videos have just left me feeling like something was... lacking. And this is coming from a guy who plays exclusively Limited. There's just something about seeing power do its thing that makes other Magic seem less desirable.

LSV has posted four Vintage Daily Event videos so far, each one featuring a different deck. I'll avoid too many spoilers, but I sure loved the time he mulliganed to five, played land plus Mox into Demonic Tutor, grabbed Wheel of Fortune, and played it off another Mox plus Mana Crypt. These kinds of plays are the reason many of us started playing Magic.

I've embedded LSV's first four Vintage videos below. If you're interested in learning about the metagame of Magic's most powerful format and watching some highly entertaining content in the process, check them out.

Insider: MTG Stock Watch

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome back, readers! I'd like to thank QS's own Charles Fey for the suggestion behind this article. The basic premise is that I'll be scouring MTGStocks.com to highlight the big movers (whether up or down) and providing an analysis for the reason.

The first thing I'd like to do is break down potential cards into different categories. The normal stock market tends to split them into these main categories:

  • Penny Stocks - cheap, very speculative stocks. The Wolf of Wall Street made his fortune by pushing these onto people and for the most part they lost their money on these picks. This types of stocks are very high risk/high reward (similar to lottery tickets).
  • Blue Chip Stocks - these are stocks of established companies, often considered safe and dependable. They are your Coca-Cola's and your Microsoft's.
  • Income Stocks - These are the stocks that give you higher dividends but are usually less likely to grow much in value, similar to putting your money in a bank and getting your interest rate as a return.
  • Growth Stocks - These types of stocks tend to grow and yield a good return, though dividends are usually re-invested into the company.
  • Value Stocks - These are the stocks/securities that are considered undervalued. The market experts believe they are good longer-term investments.

There are certainly some similarities between a few of these options and Magic cards.

  • Penny stocks - your bulk rares and possibly some good uncommons. These are often cards that are at bulk status (up to sub $3) until some new interaction is discovered or spoiled, when they shoot up in value. Nightveil Specter is a great example, as it sold for $0.75 or less (I got quite a few in bulk), then spiked with the Mono-Blue Devotion deck taking PT Theros by storm.

nightveil specter

  • Blue Chip Stocks - Your Legacy staples, like dual lands, Force of Wills, Wastelands--cards that have proven quite stable in their values. Sure they might go up if a deck is performing particularly well, but their likelihood of tanking is slim to none. They may or may not be on the reserved list and if they aren't they are likely far too powerful to be reprinted in Standard so the danger of a mass reprint is virtually non-existent. These are the cards I like to trade into when I can to "lock in" my value as I feel safe in their stability. My current blue chip stocks are these cards:

  • Growth Stocks - These are similar to sealed product. They are expected to grow in value as the product becomes rarer as people crack it for retro drafts.

scards of mirrodin booster boxes sold

  • Value Stocks - These are often the current block's rare land cycle (assuming it's not a reprint). They are almost always undervalued while in rotation and become more valuable once the previous block has left Standard. We saw this occur with Zendikar fetchlands, Scars fast lands, Innistrad checklands and RtR shocklands.

hinterland harbor stock

watery grave stock

There isn't really an analogous version of income stocks because ownership of MTG cards doesn't pay yearly dividends (unless you can rent them out to people).

Now that we've got our definitions, let's look at the top three movers in each category this week.

*UPDATE* The (%'s) next to the card represent the price change percent from the previous week to the time in which the data was pulled.

Penny Stocks

#1 Terra Stomper (+359.2%- The reason for this guy being the biggest jumper for the penny stock group is that he was included in the green Sample Deck but not in normal M2015 packs. However, many stores didn't realize this and in order to fill preorders they were forced to crack Sample Decks or buy up the Zendikar version. Thus his bump was mainly due to misunderstanding.

Terra Stomper stock

#2 Aegis Angel (+253.1%- Unfortunately, Aegis Angel falls into the exact same category as Terra Stomper though she was featured in the white Sample Deck.

aegis angel stock

#3 Sign in Blood (textless) (+191.7%- Though it wasn't at true bulk status, it was under $3 prior to this week's spike. Finally we have one that jumps up due to playability. Sign in Blood has found a home in Mono-Black devotion decks as an excellent two-drop (since they won't always have Pack Rat in hand). As expected by brotha52 in our forums, the card spiked similar to the Brave the Elements Player Rewards when that card started showing up in the aggro decks (usually Naya or G/W).

sign in blood player rewards stock

Blue Chip Stocks

#1  Wasteland (-2.27%- This card has had a minor dip since last week. With a stronger push towards fair decks in Legacy the tempo decks (which run the full four Wastelands) are being kept in check, thus the demand for the card shrinks down a bit. It also important to note that there was a push by a major retailer to jump Wasteland's stock up (which you can see by the big spike post Born of the Gods) but the market didn't stick and it's trending back to the spot it was pre-spike.

wasteland stock

#2 Sneak Attack (-1.848%- Sneak Attack shows up primarily in the Sneak and Show deck (whereas Show and Tell has found a home in both Omni-Tell and Reanimator). Thus when the Sneak and Show deck isn't doing well on the Legacy Open circuit, Sneak Attack takes a bigger hit than Show and Tell. It's also important to note that Sneak Attack did recently have  price correction (similar to Wasteland), however this one appears to have stuck. Even though the price is in decline this week it is a minor decline and it does look as though we  have a new price plateau around $65-$66.

sneak attack stock

#3 Tundra (-1.26%- Tundra recently had a jump in price as well (this appears to be an across-the-board event). Its price doesn't appear driven by a single retailer like the previous two (which can be derived by the fact that we see a steady increase in price instead of a single-day jump). In early July, UWR Delver took both 1st and 2nd on the SCG Legacy Open Circuit, but two weeks later in Baltimore it didn't even finish in the top 16, which might explain its steady decline.

tundra stock

Value Stocks

#1 Mana Confluence (-0.007%) - This is the mana fixer for all multi-color aggro decks. It has a home in Legacy (and likely Modern) and is currently at its lowest price ever. With the announcement of Khans being a tri-colored "wedge" set, we know this type of mana fixer will be integral in many decks. I love picking these up now (so much so that I've already purchased 11 and look to be acquiring more, especially since our LGS can't keep them in stock). Looking at the price, the decline has gradually begun to plateau or bottom out, so get them now before they jump back up to $15+ (especially if you're likely to play them).

mana confluence stock

#2 Temple of Epiphany (+0.008%) - While not the cheapest temple you can buy right now, it's currently at its all-time low. There's no gaurantee it won't continue to dip some more, however, we are already into triple M15 drafts at many stores so the Journey Into Nyx packs aren't getting cracked constantly. This one also has the biggest shot at finding a home in Modern as most of the combo decks of the format include U/R. The fact that Modern lacks both Ponder and Preordain does mean that the number of turn one cantrips worth playing are limited and thus the demand for turn one untapped land isn't as high (though it still critical against the decks with a lot of two-drops if you're playing Spell Snare).

temple of epiphany stock

#3 Temple of Malice (-0.0167%) - While not a major color combination in Modern, I like Temple of Malice because it's red (which is often one of the strongest colors out of the gate in a new format, though admittedly aggro decks aren't huge fans of scrylands). More importantly, it's from Born of the Gods, which similar to Dragon's Maze only has one chase mythic (Brimaz), so people aren't cracking a lot of packs of this set. And again most store drafts are now M15, so the supply of these is likely to stagnate soon (if it hasn't done so already).

temple of malice stock

Growth Stocks

These will need to be treated differently. As they are more of a long-term hold, we don't expect drastic weekly changes. Luckily, we can use sold eBay listings to get a general idea of what the value of each sealed booster box is worth.

First we need to establish a baseline. In order to do this I took the last four completed auctions for each set from the last three blocks to create an "average" price. I realize that four data points isn't a lot, but given how spread out some of these auctions were, I was concerned that going to a more respectable number (like 10 or so) might actually incur some older price bias.

The chart below will establish our baseline and we will monitor changes using this "established price". As time passes we'll compare the current "sold listings" to this established price to determine growth.

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent Average (Established Price)
Innistrad $209.00 $199.00 $195.00 $209.00 $203.00
Dark Ascension $109.00 $90.00 $126.50 $112.00 $109.38
Avacyn Restored $122.50 $117.50 $139.50 $138.50 $129.50
Scars of Mirrodin $167.50 $141.01 $142.53 $165.00 $154.01
Mirrodin Besieged $155.00 $132.50 $150.00 $159.95 $149.36
New Phyrexia $290.50 $315.00 $301.00 $319.99 $306.62
Zendikar $499.99 $568.99 $355.00 $480.00 $476.00
Worldwake $645.04 $650.00 $675.88 $700.00 $667.73
Rise of the Eldrazi $579.95 $493.03 $510.00 $574.95 $539.48

 

**NOTE** It is critical when considering sealed product that the current value of this sealed product is reliant on the assumption that WoTC has previously not chosen to reprint entire sets before. This is a relevant concern with the announcement of "Duel Deck Anthologies" as these decks are currently valued so highly because there are so few of them unopened. I expect the reprint will tank the values, though originals will likely still hold a decent premium (probably 45-50% over that of the anthologies printings).

Comments/Concerns

As this is a new style of article for me, I'd like to get your feedback on it. If it seems valuable to people, I may turn it into something of a regular feature (probably not weekly, but perhaps monthly.) I will rely on your comments/criticisms/concerns to gauge the interest, so please post in the comments section. (I do prefer constructive criticism, but given this is the internet I'll expect the belligerent rant now and then too.)

Insider: Modern Izzet Delver Updates and a PTQ Report (Top 8)

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I was planning on hitting SCG Kansas City this weekend, but the group that I was planning on going with met some unfortunate circumstances. I had avenues to get there, but I couldn't find a ride in time to learn how much Magic 2015 mattered, and instead elected to play the PTQ here in Minnesota.

Fortunately for me, the ban list update for Modern didn't deliver any changes and it's a format where a new core set (or any set for that matter) is unlikely to change much of anything. So I booted up MTGO and took a look at my most recent build of Izzet Delver.

Izzet Delver

creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage

spells

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Pillar of Flame
4 Mana Leak
1 Remand
4 Spell Snare
4 Gitaxian Probe
3 Vapor Snag
4 Serum Visions
2 Vedalken Shackles

lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Arid Mesa
3 Island
2 Mountain

sideboard

1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Hibernation
1 Combust
1 Electrickery
2 Negate
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Counterflux
2 Spell Pierce
1 Dispel
2 Magma Spray
1 Dismember

Goblin Guide was definitely worth trying out and helped the deck with its greatest weakness--that is, losing one toughness kills all of the deck's creatures. That said, almost everybody is playing decks featuring some form of removal, and after giving my opponent so many lands and not killing them specifically because my creature was Goblin Guide, I decided that Young Pyromancer could come off the bench.

I don't really like four in a deck that almost always wants Mana Leak mana up, so I decided to try out a 3-1 split with a Vendilion Clique in the mix, which I've been happy with thus far.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vendilion Clique

The more games I played, the more I hated that basic Mountain, and my experience at GP Minneapolis taught me that I probably want a second Hibernation in the sideboard, as it's just unreal against Birthing Pod. I put in a few dailies in the week leading up to the PTQ and registered this list for the fighting:

Izzet Delver

creatures

3 Young Pyromancer
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Snapcaster Mage

spells

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Pillar of Flame
4 Mana Leak
1 Remand
4 Spell Snare
4 Gitaxian Probe
3 Vapor Snag
4 Serum Visions
2 Vedalken Shackles

lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Arid Mesa
4 Island
1 Mountain

sideboard

1 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Hibernation
1 Combust
1 Electrickery
2 Negate
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Counterflux
1 Spell Pierce
1 Dispel
2 Magma Spray

Round 1 vs. Izzet Twin

An advantage that Splinter Twin decks have in Modern is that until they show you a combo piece, there are a ton of overlapping elements between their deck and a number of other decks. It's really hard to put somebody on a particular strategy just because they have a Steam Vents in play.

Fortunately, my Gitaxian Probe lifts some of the fog of war. Straight Izzet Twin has been a very good matchup in all of my experience with Delver in Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Steam Vents

Part of what makes this matchup so good is that, despite the fact that they do have access to Snapcaster Mage and Lightning Bolt, your life total doesn't matter all that much--thanks in no small part to having access to four Spell Snare.

Against most decks you can Probe on turn 1 and you'll see a hand capable of doing a reasonable amount of damage to you, making Snapcasting a Probe a suspect proposition. Against Twin, a lot of their hands just make it really easy to turn the heat up and Snap-cantrip, which is almost never the most exciting line, but in a land-light hand (particularly one with two Snapcasters), it will often be your best option.

Anyway, this match was a pretty open and shut 2-0.

1-0

Round 2 vs. Grixis Twin

If it's hard to place a Steam Vents deck, it's impossible to place a Creeping Tar Pit deck. My opponent was able to kill me in game one without showing me any combo pieces. Despite mis-boarding for game two, I did still bring in all of my relevant sideboard counterspells and was able to see a Deceiver Exarch and win game two.

Game three brings about an interesting game of WIFOM. Izzet Twin really can't board out of their combo too effectively. RUG Twin can, and I surmised that Grixis Twin probably could, too. I kept a hand that was very aggressive but counter-light, expecting that my opponent wouldn't be trying too hard to combo me after the cat was out of the bag.

After I won the third game, my opponent revealed that he indeed only had one Splinter Twin still in his deck.

I have to give credit where it's due. Despite winning this match, I feel like my opponent's deck was way sweeter than mine. I've long been a fan of Tar Pit alongside Snapcaster Mage and Lightning Bolt, and Thougthseize is oh so much better than Gitaxian Probe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Creeping Tar Pit

2-0

Round 3 vs. Kiki Pod

Hibernation is excellent against Junk Pod. It's passable against Kiki Pod.

This match, despite being against local legend Ken Bearl, wasn't all that interesting. In game one my hand was too land light to play around everything and I picked the losing line.

In game two, Ken was punished for an awful keep. In game three, Ken was able to land a Thrun, but I already had reasonable pressure and a Vedalken Shackles to prevent Thrun from making any friends. Serves him right, too. That Troll deserves to die alone.

3-0

Round 4 vs. Gruul Tron

When they're very lucky and/or you play into their haymakers, Tron will crush you.

Most commonly, Izzet Delver is pretty favored against Tron. Not leaving up counterspells and/or over-committing into Pyroclasm/Oblivion Stone will lose you games. I managed to avoid any particularly egregious blunders and won this match 2-1.

Map

4-0

Rounds 5 and 6 vs. Izzet Twin

There was a lot of Twin at this PTQ. Not a lot to report on these rounds. If you're expecting to play against a lot of Twin, then I cannot recommend Izzet Delver enough. 2-0 and 2-0.

6-0

Rounds 7 and 8

A draw in round 7 locked me for top 8.

At this point in the day, I was feeling pretty fatigued, and I had forgotten to pack any ibuprofen for my back, which bothers me after long days of sitting.

A better man than myself would have played for position in round 8, as I was a lock for a weak seed in the top 8. And with the modified play/draw rule, it absolutely benefits Delver decks to be on the play for every match.

But I needed to stretch out, get some food (I wasn't hungry during round 7 and decided that the top of round 8 was the minimal threshold I needed to digest before playing) and clear my head. The cost of playing for position was low, as dropping from 5/6 seed to 8th (I was a lock) isn't a dramatic step back, but playing at first seed would be a tremendous boon.

Sometimes though, external factors win out. Perhaps on a better day I'd have played for position and it would have helped me, but all things considered, I don't regret the decision.

6-0-2

Quarterfinals vs. Junk Rock

GB/x decks have been my toughest matchups with this deck, and despite winning game one, I hit some pretty bad draws in games two and three and made my exit from the event.

This was the first match on the day where Keranos, God of Storms entered the fray, but it was ultimately Thoughtseized. To boot, when I Probed my opponent turns later he had an Unravel the AEther in his hand, remarking that he needed answers to Keranos.

Keranos seems to have taken off in Modern, and this leads me to believe that that slot for this deck needs to change.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Keranos, God of Storms

6-1-2

Going Forward

The deck was gas all day, and variance unfortunately caught up to me in the first match I couldn't afford to lose. Such is Magic.

I would strongly recommend this deck, particularly if Twin decks are popular in the metagame, though I'd change approximately three slots in the deck.

I have been boarding out the second Shackles, if not both, in almost every matchup. Having lost to Lingering Souls in the quarters, I wouldn't be mad about just changing the second copy to an Electrolyze. It's generally good everywhere Shackles is anyway, even if lower impact.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Electrolyze

Mountain remains the worse card in the deck, and for this reason I'm inclined to believe that I'm playing too many Arid Mesas. Even though I'll only have one Shackles, I still don't want more non-Island lands. I'm going to try cutting one Mesa for the fifth Island and see how I like it.

Lastly, Keranos, while good, is probably just not the droid I'm looking for. I'm not sure what to replace it with, but it's very likely that it will be replaced going forward. Outside of that, the only other change I'd consider is maybe putting the second Spell Pierce back on board over the second Magma Spray, but the split is fine in either direction.

Unfortunately I won't be able to make all that many more PTQs this season, but I'll be hitting the Minnesota one in August, at the very least. Good luck to everybody as they slog through Modern. Hopefully you fair slightly better than I did!

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

R.I.P. in Peace, PTQs

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Who loves qualifying events?

Wizards has now made it necessary to win two qualifying events to end up at the Pro Tour.

Embedded image permalink

Wizards announced something called "Regional PTQs" and smaller, preliminary PTQs that you have to do well at to qualify for said Regional PTQ. The entire Top 4 of the Regional PTQ heads to the PT, not just the winner. This actually may save some time since the Top 4 is much more likely to prize split now.

Well, how does all of this work?

Kind of like this.

It looks like two things are going to happen here.

One obvious consequence is that it's going to be much, much harder to qualify for the Pro Tour. It could have something to do with a ton more people playing the game lately, but there could also be something else at work. Giving Hooter Stumpfuck from Moosefart, Saskatchewan a plane ticket and PT invite because he won a 3 round PTQ so he can go 2-11 at the PT has worked OK in the past, but the PT should mean a bit more than "I got lucky at one event". Winning a PTQ isn't easy, but qualifying for the PT shouldn't be THAT easy. The lucksackery involved with winning a PTQ is now mitigated by forcing those players to play well at a Regional PTQ and prove it wasn't a fluke.

The other consequence is that sub-PTQs are going to be handled by smaller stores. This is great for smaller stores! It doesn't take a TO to handle these events so the LGS really benefits from this arrangement. The TOs can still handle the Regional PTQs (and small vendors can go vend them and have a much better day) and the Regional PTQs will be huge events, which will be great.

Regional PTQs Summary (from the Mothership)

  • These will be run by hand-selected advanced and advanced plus WPN stores, based primarily on accessibility and the ability to host over 100 players.
  • Regional PTQs are planned to be held at least four weeks after the end of the Preliminary PTQ season (the first one ends in February).
  • 31 Regional PTQs will take place worldwide, and qualified players may choose which they compete in.
  • Each competing player will receive an exclusive participation promo card.
  • Top 4 of Regional PTQs receive invitation and airfare to the qualifying season's Pro Tour; 5th–8th receive invitations to the next Pro Tour's Regional PTQs. If attendance is over 128 players, Top 8 receive airfare and invitations to the qualifying season’s Pro Tour.

Is this ultimately good for the game? I think so because it makes the PT harder to qualify for, increasing the quality of player at the PT. It also adds more events to the schedule giving people more of a choice of local event so traveling 8+ hours isn't the only option. You can play local Magic every single weekend and that is very, very good for the people who don't win a PTQ.

It's likely to get tougher to qualify, but I think it should be.

Wotc announcment

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free7 Comments on R.I.P. in Peace, PTQs

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Commanded by Planeswalkers

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

At San Diego Comic-Con 2014, this happened:

teferi-temporal-archmage-deckbox

Let me zoom that in for you:

tef2

Do you see that last line? "Teferi, Temporal Archmage can be your commander." Mind: blown.

Mark Rosewater confirmed that this will be a cycle of mono-colored planeswalkers at the forefront of this year's Commander decks. So we can expect five of these. Interestingly, as I understand it, Teferi is no longer a planeswalker in the current storyline. What we're seeing here is a retroactive look back at the planeswalker Teferi once was. Will the other five planeswalkers in this cycle also be from the past? Did anyone mention Urza?

From a play perspective, planeswalkers as commanders is a huge change. One wonders if the rules committee was consulted before these were sent to print. [EDIT: It seems that, yes, the EDH overlords were privy to this move.] Wizards of the Coast is ostensibly hands-off with the format, so it would be surprising if they printed something so barrier-breaking like this without at least running it by Sheldon Menery and the rest of the team. Some local playgroups have already adopted rules allowing any planeswalker to serve as commander, so it's not like this hasn't been considered before. Don't be surprised to see more playgroups adopt this mentality, or if these planeswalker-commanders are extremely overpowered, it would be equally unsurprising to see playgroups discourage their use altogether. This move may be exactly what players want from the format, or it could be pushing the power level just a little too far. We can't really know until we see how these cards perform.

From a financial perspective, I have no idea. At least one of these decks will be a snap-buy at MSRP, but since these planeswalkers will only be available in these sets, all five could be at that level. Until more spoilers and preorders start going up, it's hard to make any kind of financial predictions at this time.

From a business perspective, it's a little shocking that R&D has taken such a bold new direction so soon. The previous iterations of Commander decks sold like crazy. I still have never seen a copy of Mind Seize in the wild (except for at $60-plus), and even the "bad" Commander decks all disappear from the shelves eventually. This product was already going to sell out, so pushing something so crazy and powerful and new like this seems mistimed. Why not wait until interest in the product line is waning to reinvigorate it with something so radical?

I'm sure WOTC has a plan, but let's hope it's not printing five new planeswalker-commanders every year. That will get out of hand very quickly. On the other hand, can you imagine the outrage in 2015 when we're back to legendary creatures as commanders? It seems like R&D has set up a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't situation, but they surely have a strategy for the format. It will be interesting to see what that is moving forward.

Insider: History Matters

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I’ve been off of Insider articles for a little while, but I’m back now, looking to make some money and help you all do the same.

The big lesson I’ve taken away from the summer is that there are stronger forces in the MTG world than the current PTQ format.

Like most of the MTG finance community, I did okay in the early part of the year on my Modern specs (if you can call picking up underpriced staples speculating). I made money outing a few cards, but I also got greedy and held a bunch of stuff. My thought process was something like this: Modern PTQ season is only four months away. If Modern prices are so high right now, just imagine what they’ll be like when everyone needs cards for PTQ decks! Great job, genius!

So I held my Primeval Titans that I bought between $8 and $9 and could have buylisted for $13-something at their peak price. Now I can get like $10, which means I haven’t really lost any money, but rather than holding out for my target price of $15, I should have just taken the guaranteed and very reasonable profit. Great job, genius, indeed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

Ignoring the Signs

I made these decisions in the face of years of historical lows during the summer months, but I blithely believed that moving Modern PTQ season to this time period would change everything.

Needless to say, I was wrong, and although many of these cards will recover all lost value between September and March, I’ve tied up money that I was anticipating freeing up around this time. It was a mistake, and in hindsight I can see it was shortsighted (i.e. idiotic) to assume the finance world as we know it would change just because of PTQ scheduling.

In 2015, I’ll be much more aggressive about selling off Modern staples during the first four months of the year, if not sooner. I should have adopted the “leave the last ten percent” mentality, but in my arrogance I convinced myself that I would be leaving way more than ten percent on the table. Lesson learned: pay attention to history.

Applying History

I’ve written before about long-term Standard trajectories. If history is to be our guide—and that’s the new hypothesis I’m working under, remember?—then Theros block staples are at their low points right now.

Supply has peaked: M15 is the new hotness, so most of the Theros that will be opened has already been drafted. Demand has bottomed out: it’s summer, so fewer people are playing. Standard is stale. People are getting rid of their rotating RTR cards and many are wrongly trading out Theros as well.

All of that will change. Khans of Tarkir is coming, and when it does, we’re going to see the yearly reinvigorated interest from the community. All of a sudden, no-longer-being-drafted Theros cards will come into sharp demand, especially the ones that go well with what we now know is a set based on the three-color enemy wedges of Tarkir. So which Theros cards are good buys?

Planeswalkers

There were five planeswalkers in Theros block, and at least some of them are probably underpriced.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Xenagos, the Reveler

Both Xenagos, the Reveler and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver, are currently under $8. Although these were printed in the highly opened large-set Theros, they are both mythics, so four-of play will still stretch the demand on the number of copies in print. It’s very rare for a planeswalker in Standard to see its price dip below $5, so the risk here is minimal.

Being two-color planeswalkers may limit the upside on Xenagos and Ashiok, but moving into a three-color block means that plenty of gold cards will be seeing play. With any post-rotation competitive play at all, these could triple overnight. Short of that, they’ll still probably grow above $10 just due to casual/FNM demand. Trade for these whenever you see them and keep an eye out for copies you can snag at $5 or $6 in cash.

Elspeth, Sun's Champion has been a key player in Standard for the last year, and I don’t expect that to be any different after rotation. Buying in for $20 a copy doesn’t really sit well with me, but if you want to play white-based control after rotation, be sure to pick up your playset before Khans spoilers start. These are worthy targets in trade.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes is the one planeswalker in the block that I don’t like at its current price. At close to $20 retail as well, Ajani sees only a fraction of the play that Elspeth does, but he does come from a smaller set that sold significantly less.

That’s the only thing I see being a factor in Ajani’s favor, and although I could envision a world where the price went up, I don’t anticipate it and will be flipping past these in binders at this price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kiora, the Crashing Wave

Kiora, the Crashing Wave is a cool card and I am biased in its favor. It is probably deserving of an evaluation similar to that of Ajani, but I just can’t bring myself to do it. I’m going to invoke the all-powerful words, “I don’t know” on this one, which means I like the card and want to trade for copies of it but that is probably wrong if you want to make money. So I don’t know.

Hopelessly Devoted to Blue

Devotion can go one of two directions after rotation: On one hand, it can run its course, fading out of our collective consciousness with the rotation of Nightveil Specter and the like. On the other hand, R&D may just decide that devotion is sweet enough to support in both adjacent blocks, giving us a whole bunch more hybrid cards to support it.

Mana costs likely won’t be as clean as Nightveil Specter and Boros Reckoner in a three-color block, but if Wizards decides to continue supporting devotion, cards like Master of Waves and several of the gods could be great pickups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Master of Waves

Even without Standard play, devotion cards may be good pickups anyway. [card]Master of Waves[/cards] does in fact see fringe play in Modern, and is currently at an all-time low price. It’s not unappealing to casual players, is a mythic, and has seen competitive success. I don’t hate this as a pickup.

As for the gods, many of them may never again be at as low a price as they are now. Even without Standard support, indestructible generals for Commander games will always be in demand, and we can expect to see these grow over the years. Standard play will just be a bonus allowing you to profit a little more quickly, but trading for these to hold in a long-term box is probably safe no matter what.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Erebos, God of the Dead

You Don’t Have to Scry

I admit the shockland debacle has me a little scared of the scry lands. We watched Seachrome Coast go from $5 to $20 a few years back, then saw Clifftop Retreat take a similar jump. We never saw such a spike with shocklands.

This may be explained by the fact that devotion made mono-colored decks all the rage this year, but it could also be indicative of the player base coming to realize that having one’s lands is the first step to being flexibly competitive. The fact is, shocklands have defied history this year, and that’s cause for concern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Triumph

The scry land cycle, or at least particular cards in it, will probably go up, unless Khans of Tarkir makes for an especially aggressive format. If most decks want untapped lands at every point in the curve, the scry lands probably won’t go anywhere. The morph mechanic tends to put creatures onto the battlefield and smooth draws, which certainly indicates aggression, but we’ll see.

There’s no doubt that the scry lands are powerful, even in aggro decks, so I may be worrying over nothing. Nonetheless, I’m approaching the scry lands with extreme caution.

Thanks for reading today, and here’s to making money in the post-rotation world!

Insider: [MTGO] While You Are Not Free Drafting M15

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

M15 release events have just started on MTGO and it will be the first real test for the new client without the security net of the V3 still running. In case you forgot about it, you may have a free draft package waiting for you on you account. Almost two weeks with the new client now and, despite numerous glitches and unhappy people, we haven't seen a market crash so far. Good omen?

All these changes aside, release events are usually the opportunity to find good deals among discounted cards that players are willing to let go for few extra Tix. For several cards in Theros block, it might as well be the cheapest prices you'll see before the new Standard season starts.

I'll give you my thoughts on the M15 rares next week, as there's absolutely not rush to acquire them--with very unique exceptions, all of the M15 rares will be on a downward slope until Khans of Tarkir's release next October and you are very likely to overpay if you buy them sooner than that.

Theros Block Picks

Core set releases are usually the best period to pick up cards from what will become the older Standard block in October, e.g. Theros block currently. For cards that are going to be staples for the next Standard season, they probably won't get any cheaper than now.

A lot of Theros block cards have my attention right now and I plan on buying them this week. Many cards could be worth picking up, but here are the ones I think are the most promising:

In my opinion, all ten of the temples are worth considering and picking up. The metagame of today are likely to not be the metagame of tomorrow, featuring Khans of Tarkir. Temples with the lowest value now could be the most wanted next fall. I didn't include Mana Confluence since its presence in future Standard decks might really depend on what Khans of Tarkir brings us in terms of mana fixing and/or the needs of 3-4 colors decks, and, considering this Mana Confluence's price is too high for me.

On the Devotion.decks side, green decks seem to be able to pass the Standard rotation easily. Burning-Tree Emissary is the only major loss for green decks while gaining several powerful cards from M15--Genesis Hydra, Nissa, Worldwaker, Chord of Calling and Hornet Queen.

Mono blue, red and black decks are losing much more Devotion-needed cards, especially the three mana symboled cards, Nightveil Specter and Boros Reckoner.

Rares generally don't do miracles when they have already reached a decent price, but I think Thoughtseize and Courser of Kruphix have a great future ahead. These two cards can be part of different deck strategies and are played in several formats. Remember that the courser and Sylvan Caryatid were format defining cards and omnipresent during the Pro Tour Journey into Nyx, so I expect to see them in many decks during the Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and after.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Courser of Kruphix

Dozen of other rares are probably worth considering as well. Firedrinker Satyr, Satyr Firedancer, Fleecemane Lion, Boon Satyr, Nighthowler, Pain Seer Anger of the Gods, Chained to the Rocks, Silence the Believers, Herald of Torment, Hero of Iroas and Eidolon of Countless Battles have seen play in Theros block or Standard decks at some point this year and might make the cut once Return to Ravnica block is out and Khans of Tarkir is in.

Concerning the mythics, several of them may have a a good upside at a fairly low price right now. Their prices are likely to be even more attractive in the heat of M15 release events. I like all five Born of the Gods gods, particularly since they are under 1.5, Tix which is a nice base line if anything happen in the future.

Chromanticor at 0.4 Tix, Ashen Rider at 1 Tix and Underworld Cerberus at 0.9 Tix are also worth considering with these prices since they have seen fringe play in Theros block and Standard. With the exception of Thassa, God of the Sea, mono colored Gods from Theros currently have a decent buy price with good potential. However, they are from the first block set and it may highly depend on what Khans of Tarkir offers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underworld Cerberus

Finally, there are some cards from Journey into Nyx--such as Ajani Mentor of Heroes, Keranos, God of Storms and Eidolon of Blossoms--I wish were significantly lower. Since they are from the third set, they would not need much to rise, but I'm hesitant to buy them at their current price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

One last note on the Theros picks: I'll make the PT Khans of Tarkir a possible selling point for all of these picks. Until the Standard metagame is dictated by the pros during the PT, all cards have a fair shot and may increase in price. After the Pro Tour, the cards you picked that have not seen play may start falling, waiting for the metagame to change only several months later.

Modern Picks

Modern is kind of unseen this summer, probably because of the cancellation of the Modern PTQ on MTGO. However, looking at the Modern index you'll see that it is actually up by about 10% since the release of VMA five weeks ago.

Indeed, Modern cards playable in Vintage and Legacy are the ones that really spiked. To name a few: Hurkyl's Recall, Serum Powder, Forbidden Orchard, Tezzeret the Seeker, Blightsteel Colossus, Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn pumped up the Modern index, all while barely played in the format, or not at all.

Aside from Vintage-related fluctuations, Modern is probably stable or slightly down.

Several real Modern staples are actually close to a one year low right now and might be worth picking up during the M15 release events. Last year, Modern prices dipped a little bit as M14 release events went on, then bounced back until Theros release. Similarly, I expect Modern staples to dip a little bit, while M15 is being opened, then to rise until next October and the Khans of Tarkir release.

Note that this dip & bounce was not necessarily true for all Modern cards, but if you buy a basket of Modern positions, especially targeting those that are already low compared to their highest, I think there's a real profit opportunity here with a short three months time frame.

Here is a selection worth considering.

Eternal Witness and Kitchen Finks are at an extremely low buy price now as well:

 

Alternatively, I'm also watching Snapcaster Mage and Dark Confidant. They are both far from a low point, but they are one of the most played creatures in Vintage,  Legacy and Modern. I'm considering buying these during M15 release events if their prices experience some weakness, keeping them until the Khans of Tarkir release as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

Vintage Picks

Vintage prices, especially P9 pieces, have had a bumpy road since Vintage Masters was released last month. It seems the prices of all Vintage staples are now set to stabilize.

VMA release events seemed to have been a success and Vintage on MTGO is slowly but surely establishing itself. If everything holds, VMA boosters should be available from the store until around Khans of Tarkir release. This being said, with M15 now available, VMA is going to be less and less opened, and the prices should start heading up slowly.

I don't see VMA cards benefiting from a huge discount, since people will need Tix for M15 release events, but these two coming weeks may be the last opportunity to gather VMA staples at a relatively low price.

I might pick up a restricted playset or two of P9 for personal use, especially since prices should be higher in the mid/long run. Best deals probably lie among rare and mythic staples in Legacy and Vintage, as well as being playable as 4-ofs, such as these:

Among these, I particularly like Dack Fayden and Council's Judgment. Both have a good playability potential and haven't been print before. As a mythic, I have a lot of expectations for Dack in the long run.

All the other 1-of Vintage staples are worth it as well. You may want to complete your Vintage collection/decks or start to build your cube on MTGO!

M15 Picks

During the release events, there's usually not much to pick. Pretty much everything is going to lose value. Well, almost everything.

Thanks to the little experiment I made with M14 mythics, it appears that betting on all the mythics at once, about two weeks after the release of the core set was a good strategy.

Here is how I plan to adjust the strategy based on my previous results and based on the fact that we have a Standard Pro Tour right in middle of release events:

  • I would try to buy an equal amount in Tix of all non junk mythics, to a limit of 100 copies. Above 100 copies it gets more delicate to sell without altering the %, especially if you have to sell a mythic that has not spiked.
  • The best overall window to buy is the 2nd weekend and 2nd week after release, so right during the PT. I would not touch any mythic that makes noise at the PT. Prices of these mythics are likely to go up and kind of falsify the strategy (these mythics might not be played with Khans of Tarkir, and that's a real risk).
  • For the Junk mythics, I would wait for them to be available at .50 Tix or under. It may take more than two weeks to reach this level, but all junk mythics touch that baseline at some point.

As for the rares, I would not buy any of them until later in September. Even the ones that may find a home in our old Standard metagame. The only option I see with rares is to perform some Quick Flips during the PT. Be careful, prices might spike really hard and fall flat the next day.

 

Hope you'll find a way to enjoy the M15 release events, whether it is by playing or by taking some opportunities to invest.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation