menu

Insider: Holding

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I just flew back from GP Boston and boy are my arms tired!

No, seriously. My arms are jacked up.

Occupational Hazards

I didn't actually fly. Three friends and I left Friday morning at 3 am from my house in Michigan and we drove 12 hours to Boston. Then we drove another half hour to Worcester, Mass, because that's where the GP actually was.

Okay, truth by told, not only did I not fly, my arms didn't get that torn up; it was my back. I carry all of my stuff in a messenger bag because it's easier to pack than a traditional, two-strap backpack and it was seriously jacking with my spinal alignment. I couldn't get comfortable in the car and I'm a little tender even now.

As I was lugging my huge bag of cards back along the 10 minute walk to our hotel, I started to think, "this is how Kurt Cobain died." Some say he held his guitar backward to play it left-handed and that hurt his back, causing him to develop a heroin addiction which may have led to his suicide. Back pain is no joke.

So why was my bag so heavy? I carry a lot of cards with me, that's why. What are you, the police?

My bag got a bit, but not a ton, lighter over the course of the weekend. My carmates remarked that it seemed odd to them that I brought anything back at all. After all, if you're taking cards to a GP and you're there to sell, why would you take anything that you didn't plan on making someone else's problem, and not just cartwheel to the car at the end of the weekend with a full wallet and an empty messenger bag?

The answer to that question warrants an entire article. Why would you bring cards back from a GP?

Not Everything Is For Sale

Okay, that's not strictly true. There isn't a card I own that isn't for sale for the right price. For enough money, I'd sell my passport and risk the border crossing along at night. Still, a portion of the stuff you take with you to events, even if you're not playing in the main event, is not taken with the intention of making a sale.

Trade Binder(s)

I sometimes hand over my trade binders to dealers, and if I have a bulk rare binder and I find someone who is paying 15 cents on bulk rares like I did this weekend, I''ll strip them a bit to have some extra operating cash.

For the most part, though, I tend to snap-sell Standard goods and keep my trade stock to foreign foils. They have very good margins when you find the right guy, but you won't be able to trade them to a high percentage of players at events.

However, I've had very, very limited success trading with people lately. First of all, people really don't like being approached. If they've got their binder out, it's because they're in the middle of a trade and they don't want some jackwagon pouncing when they're in the middle of a trade.

If I don't see binders out, I don't approach people anymore because too many Jon Medina articles have made the average Joe afraid that there are still such a thing as "sharks" who are there to steal all of their value. I hear a semi-audible "pop" as someone's butthole slams shut when I use the T-word.

Anecdotally, my Brainstorm Brewery apparel is trade poison as well--one of our writers named Ken Crocker had someone ask him for trades, look at his shirt and say "nevermind."

"Come back! I write articles about Standard!" - Ken Crocker, 2014

For these reasons, I don't have a ton of trade binders on me since trading is just dildos at this point, but I have enough of that stuff on me that it still adds weight. I am at the point where I trade with people if they approach me. I don't want to not have stuff on me if someone is looking to trade, and I certainly don't want to not have my foreign foils if someone wants those, even as infrequently as I can ship one of them these days.

EDH Deck and Other Cards

If you're not fully committed to the finance lifestyle, you may not come to all of our meetings where we discuss how playing Magic is terrible EV. If you didn't get that memo, you may still travel to Grands Prix to play cards. Cards take up bag space.

If you, hypothetically, started writing a weekly column about EDH, people are going to want to play EDH with you at GPs, so you need decks. If you play Limited side events, you'll accumulate cards. Have you ever gone to a GP and not bought a single collection? Not even a sealed pool? Of course not. I have started taking an empty box with me to events so I have somewhere to put the stuff I buy when there.

Off-site. Don't buy cards on-site. It's tacky, it can get you banned and it's not worth the risk. Anything goes at a restaurant or hotel lobby, though. I've also scoured Craigslist in the city where the GP will be held and had the seller meet me near the venue so I can kill two birds with one stone.

So, to recap, don't buy cards inside the venue. Dealers pay a king's ransom for the table and they're there to be able to buy and if you try to take their business, you deserve to be kicked out. But you can occasionally find cards to buy, so be ready for that, and be ready for those cards to take up space.

Not Everything Is For Sale

I could have sold every card I brought with me. I was lucky and there wasn't much of a line at Strike Zone this weekend so I sat down with Chris and he smashed five 1,000-count boxes. Strike Zone pays top dollar on top condition cards, so I take the stuff there for the first crack at the cards.

You work your way down your dealer hierarchy until you end up at the local dealers who will buy any card in reasonable condition so they can spend all of the money they brought with them to buy cards with. Still, after that, you're left with cards that no one bought but which are not worth selling as bulk. What do you do with all of that stuff?

Hold onto it, that's what.

What are some reasons I would hold onto a card that was in the same box as other cards I ended up selling? Why would I not just try to relieve the stress on my back and ship the entire box?

Stuff Poised to Go Up

I didn't do a ton of trading in Boston, but I did enough. A lot of times in our articles, other financiers and I will say "I wouldn't buy these for cash right now, but I could see trading for them"--but then we lament the death of trading.

One reason for this is that we are referring to trading at events being mostly dead unless you're willing to go through the pain in the butt, but trading locally is alive and well.

Local trading is good because you can build relationships with people. If you establish yourself as a non-scumbag who knows his prices and doesn't try to get over on local people, your trades go much smoother. If you're sure of prices, you can avoid having to look up every single card on a smartphone. Looking up every card on a smartphone is one of the worst things ever.

I end up lugging the stuff I trade for to the event hoping to get a good price, but I usually do not. Sometimes I get a pretty high spread offered to me, which is understandable on Standard stuff that is undervalued. If it weren't undervalued, I wouldn't be doing so much work to pick the cards up.

However, since I did do all of that work, I'm not inclined to let the stuff go at this week's prices. Cards that I feel are poised to go up are likely making the trip with me to the event, but I'm going to hold onto them. I'm also going to accumulate more of them throughout the day if I can. Eventually, if I am really confident the price is really poised to go up, I'll start paying cash from the dealers.

Those are cards on me, but not cards I'm inclined to sell. This adds weight, and it's a reason that an empty bag at the end of the weekend doesn't happen.

Stuff Poised to Go Nowhere

Khans of Tarkir isn't the only set that is going to affect the price of cards from Theros block. We know that Khans is a wedge set and block's other two sets will focus less on multicolor shenanigans. What will a wedge set do to the price of a card like Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx?

The way I see it, Nykthos is a Cabal Coffers-esque card that has the added benefit of going in non-black decks in EDH. It's also being toyed with in multiple formats.

Nykthos is likely at its absolute floor right now price-wise. Should we sell them because a wedge set can hurt devotion even more, coupled with the rotation of cards like Nightveil Specter and Boros Reckoner? There is still room for Nykthos to go down, why not take the $4 the dealer is offering? That's a 20% spread--you can't beat that with a topdecked Lightning Helix.

Hang on, though. Sure, Nykthos could conceivably go down from $5, but by how much? Selling for $4 now means if you do end up buying back in, you're likely not buying in for $4. If you're buying back in, it's because it's seeing play, and seeing play will make it go up. You're not going to be able to even pay $5 or $6. You'll end up losing money buying back in. The odds of losing money because you had to buy back in far above $4 seem greater than the odds of losing money because a card that sees as much non-Standard play as Nykthos went down from $5.

Sure, Khans is a wedge set, but what if Dewey and Louie are mono-colored sets? What if there is some dargon that costs 2RRR and has firebreathing and all of a sudden Nykthos sees as much play as it does now? You're a horse's ass for selling at $4 is what.

Stuff whose future is impossible to predict with the given info isn't anything you need to move, so don't base selling decisions on incomplete information. Let's give the rest of the block a chance to shake out a bit.

In any case, you have a real luxury with a card like Nykthos. It has demonstrated an ability to be worth $15. It has demonstrated playability in multiple formats, and even if EDH demand is all that it has going for it, $4 seems about as correct for a price in a year as $1 for Thespian's Stage does right now.

Since the card has plenty of Standard legality left, you're in a great position if you're trading for these. The current Standard isn't doing much for its price. The post-rotation Khans Standard may not, either. Most people aren't thinking beyond that and you have the ability to get cards like Nykthos and just sit on them while a bunch more sets come out, any of which could really give its price a bump.

If not, you bought in at the floor where the risk is small. Sometimes even a 20% spread on a card that is showing no signs of going up is not a great deal.

...

I left GP Boston with my bag as full as when it went in. But I also paid for the trip, my mortgage and a bunch of expensive meals, and lots of booze with my community friends. My back's a little jacked up, but I did it all for the value, and anything done in the name of value is a worthwhile endeavor indeed.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, SellingTagged , , , , 1 Comment on Insider: Holding

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Khans of Tarkir Teaser Released

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

After some dead time in the past few weeks, we're finally beginning to roll in Khans of Tarkir information. Jason broke down the new shards yesterday for a wedge-themed set, and today the video trailer from the San Diego ComicCon panel where all this information came from was released.

commander-cardsI don't know how they go about creating these trailers out card art, but I know they're pretty fun to watch. And this one gives us a glimpse into some of the coming artwork and general setting that is Khans of Tarkir.

Check it out.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, Free, Khans of Tarkir, Khans of Tarkir Spoiler Coverage2 Comments on Khans of Tarkir Teaser Released

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Know Your Wedges

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Facebook this weekend was full of people fist-pumping and patting themselved on the back.

"I totally called wedges!" they say, triumphant, ignoring the fact that MaRo all but literally confirmed it on his Tumblr. Still, people are excited about wedges of Tarkir, and as an EDH player, new 3-color generals is obviously better than more 2-color generals; something the last 3 blocks has given us no shortage of.

So what will the new wedges entail?

the mardu horde

The San Diego panel tells us a bit about the different tribes, starting with the Mardu horde. We've seen one Mardu guy already.

Zurgo-Helmsmasher

I dare you to try and tell me "Zurgo Helmsmasher" isn't a badass name.

This could be a very decent general if you want to build a Mardu-colored Voltron deck. Mardu emphasizes speed, and I bet quite a few of its tribesmen are going to be hasty.

the jeskai way

Not sure who Narset is, but I just get a feeling Narset is going to help us draw cards. I like to draw cards. "Eye of the Dragon" is an aspect that seems knowledge-based and I am looking forward to seeing what kind of gas we get, both for EDH and for standard and Modern, where Jeskai decks are dominant control builds. Maybe people will stop calling Red White and Blue decks "American" and therefore stop making me embarrassed to be American myself.

the temur frontier

RUG is the Temur frontier. Savagery and the claw of the dragon don't seem super RUG to me, at least based on past RUG-type creatures. It's interesting to see how a tribe that looks like it's very similar to Gruul will incorporate its blue contingent.

the sultai brood

Temur and Sultai as popular Legacy color combinations. It will only take 1 great card in these colors to change the Legacy landscape. That's kind of rare, but Return to Ravnica gave us Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, Supreme Verdict, etc. I think it's possible we may get at least 1 good Legacy card. Would a 3-color card be playable in Legacy, even in a deck devoted to that "wedge" already? It would have to be VERY good, but tough color requirements allow a card to be a little overpowered to compensate for its difficulty in casting.

As far as EDH goes, Savagery and Ruthlessness make me think a few good beater generals with added utility are a possibility. Surrak Dragonclaw and Sidisi are likely to be valuable foils.

the abzan houses

"Endurance" makes me think of lifegain, regeneration, reanimation and indestructibility. The dragon's scale is the hardest part of its anatomy, and all of those aspects should make for interesting cards. Abzan-colored decks lose a ton in the rotation, and if "junk" is to survive the transition to "Abzan", it will have to pick up replacements for solid cards like Voice of Resurgence, Abrupt Decay and Pack Rats. I think Chord of Calling. Courser of Kruphix and other saucy junk cards will be a benefit to whatever tough-as-nails Abzan goods we get from Khans, and I'll be literally shocked if Anafenza isn't a sweet EDH general with an ability to affect the graveyard.

There you have it. Wedges, wedges everywhere. We will see what Khans brings as the weeks go on. Keep coming back for more info. You'll know it as soon as I do.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free, Khans of TarkirTagged , , , , , , 1 Comment on Know Your Wedges

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

M15 Limited Focus: Red Removal

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

With the Magic 2015 prerelease behind us, we have drafting to do! In order to best give ourselves a chance to win in our first drafts, we should be aware of the pertinent cards in each color. This time, we’ll be taking a quick look at the common and uncommon removal available in red. Not only is it helpful to know what removal spells are available when drafting a particular color, but it helps you know what to play around when facing off against opposing decks.

Common

If you drafted a lot of Theros—or really virtually any Magic set ever printed—you already know that the premium removal spell in red is Lightning Strike. It’s no Lightning Bolt, but two mana for three damage that can kill opponents at instant speed isn’t just great in Limited: it’s Standard-playable. In a mono-red deck (or just mostly red), Seismic Strike is the other premium removal spell at common here. It can’t kill opponents, but it’s priced right and can kill big things in the late game.

lightningstrike

Inferno Fist is a cool little card. On an unblocked creature, this represents four damage for three mana, which is nothing to scoff at. You can’t cast the aura at instant speed, but once it resolves, the sacrifice effect is available in response to whatever your opponent may want to do. Blastfire Bolt is comparable in many ways to Turn to Slag. Being an instant and splashable is nice, but the difference between five and six mana is huge, and that probably makes Bolt worse than Turn. It will still play a role in a pinch, but likely won’t be a high pick.

Closing out common is Forge Devil, which is narrow and only a 1/1, but it can kill a few things that matter. We also have Clear a Path, which may be just the sideboard card you need sometimes, but is a bit of a stretch in the maindeck.

Uncommon

Cone of Flame is a pretty insane card, occasionally getting you a three-for-one but also sometimes uncastable without targeting yourself or your own creature. That's a relatively minor drawback compared to the upside this provides. Also be on the lookout for Stoke the Flames. Even if it's priced too high for Constructed, four damage to a creature or player on one card is fantastic in Limited. Being an instant at four mana (or less with some help from convoke) just puts it over the top.

stoketheflames1

Heat Ray is no Fireball, as the inability to hit players really reigns in the power level of this card. That said, we don’t often get X-damage spells at instant speed, so that’s pretty cool. It’s very good, but not as crazy as we usually expect these types of spells to be. Finally, we have Shrapnel Blast, which is almost entirely dependent on the deck it’s played in. It requires some huge deckbuilding concessions, but five damage is an awful lot, so we can’t discount it entirely.

Recap

”Red Removal in M15”

Common

Uncommon

Insider: Reactions to the SDCC Announcements

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Saturday afternoon brought us some new information via the Magic: The Gathering panel at San Diego Comic Con. Throughout the hour I was constantly refreshing Twitter in the hopes of discovering some financially relevant information to act upon. After all, I’ve identified myself as an investor in MTG first and a player second.

The good news is some of the information spoiled will certainly impact financial values. The bad news is most of the most obvious effects will be negative for prices. But that doesn’t mean there is no where to look for opportunities – there just may have to be a little more “speculation” if people hope to get into a bet on the ground floor.

First, let’s start with the most financially devastating news.

They’re Baaaaaack

This tweet certainly grabbed my attention most quickly, and I am certain there were dozens like it:

Tweet

The first four Duel Decks made by Wizards are all being reprinted! For those who regret not getting their hands on them the first time around, this could be one of the most exciting tidbits to come out of SDCC. I had purchased a Divine vs. Demonic set when it first came out because I wanted the alternative art angels in the set, but I ended up cracking the one unit I purchased, selling the Demonic half to offset the cost.

Turns out that was a poor investment decision, and I should have probably purchased ten more at MSRP while I had the chance.

Divine Demonic

The set that will take the largest financial hit is the very first Duel Decks set made by Wizards, Elves vs. Goblins.

Elves Goblins

These have been expensive for years now, but their time at these elevated prices may be nearly over. Granted, the reprinted versions will have new card frames, so there may be collectors who prefer the original printings.

As a result, the original sets will maintain a value premium. But, from my experiences, reprints will almost always bring down prices on original print runs… unless they are Mythic Rares in Modern Masters (apparently).

I look forward to purchasing another Divine vs. Demonic – I will not mess up this second chance. But for those who have any positions in these first four Duel Deck products, I’d advocate selling unless you have a true appreciation for original printings. These are no longer going to appreciate in value, and the reprints will likely drive prices downward over the next year or two.

I have one set of Garruk vs. Liliana that I won in a Twitter giveaway from one of the beloved Frag Dolls. If I had no nostalgia attached, I’d sell it. But my sentimental attachment motivates me to keep this original one, even knowing the value will drop.

Khans: A Wedge Block

The next piece of information from SDCC I want to touch on is the announcement that Khans of Tarkir will be a Wedge Block, or at least a Wedge Set. This Tweet alerted me to this news and our Insider QED Tweeted a valuable response.

Tweet2

My thoughts exactly! While it is fairly disappointing the Heliod, God of the Sun spec will never pan out (more reason I am trying not to speculate so blindly anymore), I do believe a wedge block means some opportunity come rotation. For one, I’m officially 100% in the Theros Temples camp and 0% in the Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx camp.

Don’t get me wrong, Nykthos should appreciate in value over time due to Casual and EDH play. But, in the short term, I want all of my Standard money in Temples.

Multicolored Gods should also appreciate, but I honestly couldn’t begin to guess at which ones have the most upside. While I am confident Temples will all have their chance to be relevant throughout Standard, I know not which Multicolored Gods will also be strong come rotation.

My plan will be to monitor the metagame very closely and buy up any Gods that perform strongly throughout the first couple weeks of the new format. I won’t be buying in at the very bottom, but the downside risk is drastically reduced by making my acquisitions after seeing how the Gods perform in the new Standard. A tradeoff I’m often willing to make whenever I have uncertainty.

I could go down another level to identify more buying opportunities. Mana Confluence could be absolutely critical for mana fixing in a multi-color intensive Standard format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Confluence

There may be other gems as well. But other than these, I’m not inclined to make large bets with such little information. I’m perfectly content to wait and see how events unfold, and I’d recommend a similar approach if you are also interested in avoiding unnecessary risk.

Two Spoiled Cards

We also saw our first spoiled cards from the fall set. First is Zurgo Helmsmasher:
Zurgo

EDH players will surely rejoice at all of the new tri-color general options they’ll have to choose from. And I almost wonder if older tri-colored cards that fit these new shards could even go up in value.

Outside of this format, however, I’m not sure how exciting Zurgo truly is. A seven-powered hasty-dude who can’t be killed on your turn is pretty enticing. And if they block, they’re likely going to lose a dude, making Zurgo an 8/3 almost out of the gate.

Even though the Helmsmasher is Indestructible on your turn, he seems awfully vulnerable on your opponent’s turn. A toughness of two means he dies to virtually every removal spell ever printed… okay, besides Flare and Spark Spray.

He’s also not going to help you much in terms of blocking – this guy is 100% all-out offensive. In the right build, that may be exactly what you need. Only time will reveal if this Orc Warrior will have enough ancillary support to make him relevant in Standard.

On the other hand, how sweet would it be to Pod into this guy to completely take your opponent by surprise in Modern? I may have some testing to do…

The other spoiler came from the next set of Commander decks. A set of five mono colored Commander decks. As an aside, if Nykthos does not appear in each of these, maybe it truly does have some upside potential. But I’m not willing to make this bet.

Anyway, here’s the first spoiler we have from the new Commander sets:
Teferi

Now this is a Planeswalker! At last we have Planeswalkers who can also be EDH Generals! This progression feels like a natural one, and I am excited to see Wizards break the mold and strive to make EDH an even more awesome format, if that is even possible.

Teferi himself seems quite powerful, and I may be easily convinced to swap my current EDH General, the less new and less flashy Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir, with this one. At six mana he may never be relevant in tournament play, but if all the mono colored generals are Planeswalkers like Teferi, I can see these new sets becoming very popular.

It is difficult to guess what other cards may be reprinted in these new sets. Could all the Tempest Medallions be reprinted? Will these decks have a Devotion theme? Time will tell, but I can all but guarantee two things from these sets: 1) Fetch Lands won’t be reprinted in them and 2) there will be relevant reprints.

FtV: Annihilation

The last bit of information I want to touch on this week are the spoiled cards from the From the Vault: Annihilation set. We received confirmation that the following cards would be making their appearance in this set: Wrath of God, Rolling Earthquake, Living Death, Armageddon, and Cataclysm. It is fairly obvious already what card will be impacted most from being reprinted.

Earthquake

I would say this original printing should maintain decent value because that is typically the way of original printings. But the fact that the new version will be black-bordered and foil just may be cool enough to impact Rolling Earthquake’s value drastically.

I don’t believe this announced reprint was a surprise, as some of this information had previously leaked. But having that confirmation is certainly going to be a nail in the coffin for this Sorcery. You may want to think about buy listing your copies if you aren’t particularly attached to the original artwork.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rolling Earthquake

Tip of the Iceburg

So far we’ve seen one card from Khans of Tarkir, one card from the newest Commander sets, and a few cards from the latest From the Vault series. There will be a TON of new spoilers in the coming months. Wizards of the Coast is cranking out new products more rapidly than ever before, giving casual and competitive players a wide array of cards to drool over.

For now, all we can do is speculate, and this is not my forte. I will continue to focus on Temples and advocate a cautious approach heading into the fall. Between risk of reprints and hundreds of unknown cards, predicting what will come is almost like predicting the trajectory of the stock market itself. You may get lucky and guess correctly, but it’s much safer to look at fundamentals and make your acquisitions based on these. In times of uncertainty, the fundamentally strong cards will have the highest likelihood of providing a return on your investment.

As we are given more information, the upside potential on the right buys may shrink, but the likelihood of success will rise. Despite the smaller returns, those are the odds I like to bet on, so I’ll be watching very closely as events unfold in the coming months!

…

Sigbits

  • The power of supply has reared its ugly head on Temple of Malady. When this card initially came out, it quickly jumped to $14.99 at retail and Star City Games bought my copies at $8 each. Now SCG has dropped their sell price to $9.99 and, without knowing what color combinations will dominate Standard at rotation, it’s difficult to advocate this expensive Temple. I’d stick with the cheaper ones when acquiring.
  • Speaking of supply, the recent reprint of Chord of Calling has also had a dramatic impact on price. The M15 version now retails for $9.99, though foils are still out of stock at $29.99 and the original Ravnica printing is also $29.99. I suspect these may both drop some, but it will depend on how much the green instant is opened over the next month or two.
  • Did anyone else overlook the recent spike on Mana Vault? Even the heavily printed white-bordered versions retail for $7.99 on Star City Games right now. That price chart shows quite the sudden uptick as well.

Mana Vault

Insider: [Video] AngelPod M15 Update

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Editor's note: Due to technical complications with the new MTGO client, the syncing in the following videos is off. We apologize for the inconvenience. 

The deck and some analysis behind the card choices:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Noble Hierarch
1 Wall of Omens
1 Scavenging Ooze
3 Voice of Resurgence
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Spike Feeder
1 Eternal Witness
2 Kitchen Finks
1 Blade Splicer
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Sin Collector
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
1 Murderous Redcap
3 Restoration Angel
1 Archangel of Thune
1 Shriekmaw
1 Reveillark

Other

2 Thoughtseize
2 Abrupt Decay
4 Birthing Pod

Lands

2 Marsh Flats
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Plains
2 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Godless Shrine
1 Temple Garden
2 Overgrown Tomb
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Gavony Township

Sideboard

1 Path to Exile
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Dismember
1 Entomber Exarch
1 Thoughtseize
1 Lingering Souls
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Sin Collector
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Spellskite
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Kataki, War's Wage
1 Voice of Resurgence
1 Aven Mindcensor
1 Orzhov Pontiff


Round 1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reclamation Sage

Round 2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Restoration Angel

Round 3

There was an error retrieving a chart for Birthing Pod

Round 4

There was an error retrieving a chart for Voice of Resurgence

I always love feedback, so please leave a comment! I'm happy to answer any questions you might have. If you can find a better line of play or have an idea that might improve the list, I'm all ears.

Sell Fetches While You Can?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

We got a lot of big news from ComicCon in San Diego yesterday. Commander Planeswalkers. Wedge colors in Khans of Tarkir with new names. An innovative new Draft structure. Some spoilers on future boxed products.

What we didn't get was any closer to know if the fetchlands are coming back in the fall.

Image.ashxSo what do we know about the fetchlands? Basically, nothing. And that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Look, we know the reprints are coming sooner or later, whether it be the Onslaught cycle of the Zendikar one. We don't know when it will be, but we know it's going to happen. So the question is, what do we do before then?

After talking it over with Jason, we've decided the best course of action is the same one I advocated in a column a few weeks ago: sell now. Dealers have already started to lower the prices some, but nowhere near as much as they would have if the fetches had been revealed at ComicCon. The fact that they weren't revealed means dealers may not move all that much right away.

And it's not like either cycle has been on a huge tear recently. There's been year-over-year gains, yes, but the market has been incredible slow in the last several months. In short, I see the upside as being significantly more limited than the downside in the near future. That's enough for me to sell mine, and it's a decision I'm not going to feel bad about come October, regardless of whether or not we get more fetches.

Vintage Tournament Report: Storm

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Monday nights in the Twin Cities here in Minnesota mean battling Vintage. Every Monday night one of the local game stores hosts a Vintage tournament, which has been getting some good turnouts the last couple of weeks.

I was looking forward to this Monday more than I usually do as I had not been able to attend the last three Monday Vintage tournaments. I had decided that I was going to play Storm this time because a great friend of mine, Joe Kaufmann, and I had recently put it together on Magic Online, and I was looking to get some practice in with the deck to be more prepared for when I battle online. The last time I played Storm was in my first Vintage tournament back in 2005 or something like that.

We had another good turnout on our hands with 12 people coming to battle which meant four rounds. I was ready to battle with the following list:

Storm

Spells

4 Dark Ritual
4 Duress
4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Timetwister
1 Wheel of Fortune
1 Time Walk
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Grim Tutor
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Imperial Seal
1 Cabal Ritual
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Yawgmoth's Bargain
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
2 Preordain
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Minds Desire
1 Tinker
1 Memory Jar

Sideboard

3 Yixlid Jailer
1 Tormod's Crypt
3 Pyroblast
3 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Island
1 Blightsteel Colossus
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Thoughtseize
1 Toxic Deluge

Round 1 - Drew with Gush Storm

I was up against Drew, a local player who has top-eighted a Vintage tournament in our area before. I did have the slight advantage of knowing what he was playing as I helped him assemble some of his deck beforehand, but I knew I was still in for a battle.

Game 1

I have an early Duress to take countermagic out of his hand, leaving him with two Force of Wills and no blue cards. I bait out a Force with a different spell, but am planning on playing all my artifact mana and tutoring for Mind's Desire for a big turn.

I cast my mana and Dark Ritual; Drew responds with Ancestral Recall and I respond by casting Vampiric Tutor, which resolves and I get Minds Desire. My hope is that Drew will look to counter the spell I tutored for rather than my Dark Ritual, but he draws a Mental Misstep and while I can draw the Desire that turn I am one mana short of going off.

His Ancestral is pretty bad so we play draw go for a while and I eventually build up a hand where I can try for Mind's Desire again. I go for it and reveal Demonic Tutor, Dark Ritual, moxen, Gitaxian Probe and finally the lethal Tendrils of Agony.

Game 2

I sideboard in Pyroblasts and the fifth discard spell for Hurkyl's Recall, Chain of Vapor and two other cards.

Drew takes a mulligan to six and leads with Mox Sapphire and Underground Sea. I lead with a fetch and he casts Thoughtseize on his turn two. I Vampiric Tutor for Necropotence and he surveys my hand and takes Yawgmoth's Bargain, which I was only one mana short of casting. I draw and play Dark Ritual then Necropotence. I Necro for 11 cards and kill him with Tendrils on the following turn.

1-0

Round 2 - Dylan with 4-Color Control

Dylan had just top-foured our most recent big Vintage tournament that another store in our area holds so I put him on that deck for this one as well. His deck contains Drains, Dack Faydens, Jaces, Goblin Welders, Baleful Strix, etc.

Game 1

Dylan takes a mulligan to six and I Duress him on turn one and take his only piece of disruption in Mana Drain. I have enough mana to go off on turn two with Mana Crypt, Lion's Eye Diamond and Dark Ritual into Grim Tutor, cracking the Diamond for black. I tutor up Yawgmoth's Bargain, draw 15 cards and win from there.

Notice anything? Dylan points out to me, as he is usually known for playing Storm or combo in most formats, that I could have simply gotten Yawgmoth's Will and won the game on the spot for sure. This shows my inexperience with the deck and that I made a play that could easily win, but not necessarily the best, winning play.

Game 2

I side in the blasts and thankfully remember that he is playing Dack Fayden and keep my Blightsteel Colossus in my sideboard. I side out Hurkyl's and two other cards I can't remember.

Dylan had a quick Jace, the Mind Sculptor with the help of Mana Crypt and brainstormed for a couple of turns while I sculpted my hand and built up my mana base, hoping to see a Duress or Gitaxian Probe.  He loses a couple of Crypt flips and Missteps a couple of bait spells and is sitting at a precarious 11 life.

He lands a Dack Fayden and I decide I have to move. I play the rest of my fast mana and cast a Memory Jar with 1 black floating. I crack it right away and have a hand of Probes, 2 Pyroblasts, Duress, lands and a Demonic Tutor.  I do not have enought mana to make use of the Demonic Tutor well so I use it to tutor up Lotus and seeing the coast was clear with Gitaxian Probe, I crack it for red and kill both of his planeswalkers.

We both don't have a whole lot left and Dylan promptly draws another Jace the following turn, and we are in trouble. He brainstorms and goes to 1 life after losing three Mana Crypt rolls and fetching once. I am able to get a mini tendrils off and Dylan has no way to stop it.

2-0

Round 3 - Morgan with Forgemaster Shops

This is Morgan's first time playing Vintage and again I have an advantage knowing what she is playing, as she was looking for advice on deck choice before the tournament.

Game 1

I win the die roll! This is extremely important in this matchup as the games are like night and day depending on who plays first. I play Gitaxian Probe and see Metalworker x2, Kuldotha Forgemaster x2, Tangle Wire, Mishra's Workshop and Ancient Tomb. I Duress away the Wire and plan on playing Necropotence on turn two with Dark Ritual.

Morgan plays Workshop and Metalworker and passes the turn. I play Necropotence and pay 12 life. My hand wins the game if she cannot disrupt me on her turn 2. She uses Metalworker and plays out most of her hand, but no Spheres or Golems, so I untap and win with Tendrils of Agony.

Game 2

I board in the Hurkyl's Recalls, Blightsteel Colossus and Empty the Warrens. I keep a hand with land, Mox Emerald, Hurkyl's Recall and other stuff.  Morgan leads with Ancient Tomb, Mox Ruby, Trinisphere! I have to draw lands to keep up, but I only draw Tolarian Academy and another fetchland before I am dead. See what I mean by being on the play or draw!

Game 3

The most interesting decision I had in the tournament was in this game on turn one. I have Duress, Dark Ritual, Necro, two fetch lands, Yawgmoth's Will and Mox Opal. I fetch a basic Swamp, cast Duress and I see this hand:

Take a moment and think about what you would take and what your line of play is for the next two turns...

...

What did you decide to take? Don't scroll down until you decide!

...

I decided to take Mox Sapphire. Witchbane Orb and Thorn do very similar things in this spot as they are hard to win through. I cannot take Metalworker, Lightning Greaves doesn't matter and it is possible to win through Chalice on 1. My thinking is that she has to brick on one draw step and I get Necropotence on turn two and she is likely not going to play Chalice on 0 because it would cut off some of her outs that produce mana.

She bricks on the first draw and I draw Duress! I cast it taking Thorn, then Ritual and Necro paying 12 life. She bricks on the second draw as well and I untap and make 18 goblins and Tendrils her for lethal. Phew!

3-0

Round 4 - Martin on U/R Delver

I have had a pretty good losing streak going when playing in the last round for undefeated status and U/R Delver is very good against my deck, so when Martin offers the split I decide to take it. We play anyway because it's Vintage (i.e. awesome).

Game 1

My opener is this:

I play Probe drawing Sensei's Divining Top, into double Dark Rituals, Duress, into Imperial Seal getting Yawgmoth's Will, Lotus Petal, play Top draw Will, sac Petal play Will, play Petal, two Rituals, Imperial Seal for Tendrils draw it with Probe and win. A nice turn one kill with Duress protection!

Game 2

I board in Blasts, Empty and Toxic Deluge for Chain of Vapor, Hurkyl's and other cards, and decide against Blightsteel fearing Dack Fayden. Martin does his thing playing turn one Delver, flipping it quickly and countering everything I play and I die.

Game 3

We exhaust each other's resources over several turns and I eventually have to Toxic Deluge away his Snapcaster Mage and Empty the Warrens for six tokens. Martin counters one copy so I only get four. We both brick for like six turns drawing lands and Delvers that refuse to flip, and the board is clogged with creatures.

I had fired off an early mini tendrils when I was at 1 life fearing Lightning Bolt. After drawing lands along with multiple Duress and Dark Rituals I realize that was a mistake--I should have played with no fear, as it was my only winning line. Eventually Martin's Delvers flip and I die.

I enjoyed this match with Martin as it showcased the many ways that Vintage games can play out, from turn-one kills to 10-12 turn topdeck wars.

Overall I really enjoyed playing Storm.  Even though there is so much countermagic in Vintage, so many of your spells are must counters that your opponent sometimes won't have enough. This happens because literally half of your deck is restricted in Vintage. This is what Storm has been doing since its existence and is still a strong player in the Vintage metagame to this day.

Insider: Virtually Infinite – Capitalizing on M15 Release Week

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last week there were definitely some growing pains in the switch to the new client. That said, they made some big improvements in the newest build. The increased stability is key, and a number of the User Interface (UI) tweaks are improvements.

Despite the many complaints on social media, the sky has not fallen, and there has been no collapse in card prices like many people had predicted. In fact, we saw this:

Cards have actually gone up, as shown by the Modern index
Cards have actually gone up, as shown by the Modern index (as of July 21).

Prices have actually gone up on all three major indices: Standard, Legacy, and Modern Index. What's going on here?

Perhaps an analogy from the finance world might shed some light. Earlier this month Citibank agreed to settle an investigation by the U.S. government into the bank’s sale of toxic mortgage-backed securities six years ago. The settlement price? A staggering $7 billion, which essentially wiped out the bank's profits from this year. Yet in response, Citibank stock shot up 4% the next day.

First, the market was relieved that the settlement wasn't even larger. But more than that, the market was rewarding certainty. The prospect of the settlement had been looming for so long that that risk was built into the stock price; once a clear settlement cost emerged, investors felt comfortable buying back in and the stock rose.

The v4 transition has not been an easy one, but it could have been much worse. For months, a lot of players and speculators sat on the sidelines and did not commit their capital because they were concerned about a fiasco akin to the v2 to v3 transition, which led to drops of 20% or more across the board. I was personally quite cautious to commit--the downside seemed much lower than the possible upside.

So far, things have been stable. But that's not to say we're entirely in the clear. This last week was a nightmare for many botters, and the lights were out at a number of major chains as they scrambled to update their software. Casey Stewart of TheCardNexus noted on Twitter that there are "680 classifieds post right now... compared to 2500 normally." That means that a ton of bots were having difficulty making the transition (Scott Bianco has a good list here.)

What were the implications of these bot troubles? So far, not much. However, if these bot chains cannot resolve their software issues and get back online there will be a couple serious consequences: 1) less competition will mean wider spreads between buy and sell prices; and 2) if some of these foundering bots start selling off inventory it could flood the market with additional cards and lower prices across the board.

Moreover, MTGO Traders mentioned in a series of tweets on Wednesday that "lots of people [are] selling collections and tickets" and predicted that "with the amount of people quitting prices will drop," though "prices will recover and it won't be anything like V3 launch."

MTGOTraders tweet

Keep an eye on M15 release as a danger zone. The M15 release will be a good test of how players enjoy the new client, how stable it is with large numbers of players, and how people will respond to a new client in the context of low liquidity. The demand for tickets could lead prices to slip, and if that is coupled with sell-offs we could see the MTGO equivalent of a “run on the banks”.

If people see the value of their collection declining, they could rush to sell off before things get worse, and trigger a recession in the MTGO economy. This is essentially what happened in the v3 switchover several years ago. Please note that I do not see this as a likely outcome, but it is an outside possibility that we should be prepared for.

I am waiting before investing heavily because I still have concerns. But it may well be safe to go back in the water.

Getting the Most Out of M15 Release Week

M15 launches online with the prerelease, July 25. In general, release events are a great time to load up on singles you need, since the “tix only” entry of the on-demand sealed events will lead people to sell the cards they open and suppress prices across the board. The rest of this article will talk about a couple specific opportunities available during the M15 release.

Prospects for Rotating Cards

Pro Tour Magic 2015 (Aug 1-3) will be the first showcase for M15 Limited and the new summer Standard. The Pro Tour is a swan song for rotating cards, and RTR block all-stars like Sphinx's Revelation and Pack Rat will take the stage one final time before fading into oblivion (or, for the lucky few, into Modern.) There might be one last mini-bump on these prices during the Pro Tour, since Standard will have the spotlight and people will buy cards (and intriguing decks) that appear on coverage.

But right after we should see a continued slide into irrelevance for our old stalwarts. By now you should have sold M14 or RTR cards you don’t urgently need, but if you missed the window you may get a final shot to sell during the Pro Tour (you can pick up your Modern/Legacy playsets in the bargain bin this fall.)

After the Pro Tour we enter a good window for picking up rotating cards. In principle these should be lowest after Khans of Tarkir, but redeemers and speculators often start buying in late summer. Sylvain’s article provides some good ideas for targets, which include Abrupt Decay, shock lands, and Deathrite Shaman. Just make sure you don’t buy in too early.

M15 Cards

During the first few hours of prerelease events, M15 cards will be in high demand. Players will want them for their decks and bots will want them for their inventory. Within 24 hours or less the demand will be sated, and most cards will have dropped to half or their release price, or less. Rares without clear Constructed applications will be hit hardest and will be worth pennies. Sell anything that hits your binder until these cards hit the floor.

This crop of M15 mythics is hard to evaluate (see Sylvain’s article here), which means they are likely to stay out of “bulk mythic” range. If there is a breakthrough mythic it could easily spike from a few tix to 20 or more (this is what happened with Sphinx's Revelation, Geist of Saint Traft, and a few other breakout all-stars.) Don’t overextend. The general price pressure will be downward until about 8-10 days in, and you will be “swimming upstream,” as I discuss in my last article.

During release events there will be a lot of M15 entering the market. One to two weeks after the release starts will be a great window to load up on a basket of cheap rares and mythics.

You can take the Sylvain approach of buying an “index” of the set with the understanding that everything is underpriced. Or you can be more selective and try to pick winners. Either way, the set has basically nowhere to go but up, and the index will be 20% lower than it will be in a few months. So it’s pretty safe to buy a cross section of cards. This is a good example of “swimming downstream”.

M15 Wildcards

There are two wildcards surrounding this release that make it different from the past.

The first wildcard is the new client. If it is poorly received by players this could actually benefit the long-term value of M15 cards since there will be less drafting than expected. However I don’t expect volume to be down significantly since the client is pretty draft friendly. Indeed, because the deck building and trading functions can be rough around the edges this may push MTGO players even further away from Constructed and toward draft.

The second wildcard is the free prerelease voucher that was provided to all accounts. I expect the volume of people who play this prerelease higher than ever. I also expect to see a lot of "zombie" accounts—i.e. people who enter queues for free just to get the cards, and then drop. This will lead to unpleasant play experiences. It will also mean that M15 prices drop much faster than under usual circumstances.

Notice how I didn't talk about any specific M15 cards? As discussed last week, one of the most common mistakes is to try to "pick winners" among the newly released set. Unless you have an inside track, it's best to wait for a week or two before making any M15 purchases.

Eternal Cards

During release events almost everything goes “on sale”. Keep an eye on prices, since this is a great time to pick up those playsets of older cards you’ve been holding out for.

Each set release triggers a drop in the price of existing staples
Each set release triggers a drop in the price of existing staples.

The discount won’t be huge—usually between 5 to 10%--and will be proportional to how much a format is on people’s minds. Right now, for example, Modern and Pauper are not occupying a lot of our mind space so the index for these cards could experience a deeper discount than Vintage/Legacy/Standard.

Because each account will be gifted a free prerelease voucher, fewer tickets will leave the system than in a traditional prerelease. So I expect this effect to be muted somewhat.

Booster Plays

What about Boosters? Once the Sealed Release Events start firing, booster prices will crash—there is just too much product entering the system and demand for tickets is too high. (Traditionally the highest EV events are the Sealed Release queues which only take event tickets.) M15 boosters should quickly fall to 2.9-3.0 tix.

That said, there may be a brief window in which M15 boosters will rise. As Matt Lewis puts it:

I think there will be an opportunity on boosters on the Saturday and Sunday when prereleases open. Boosters will not be in demand as players need tix to enter these events. But boosters are awarded as prizes. This puts downward pressure on the price of boosters. Once release events open on the Monday, draft queues start up, priming demand. But boosters won't be awarded in DEs and such until the Wednesday. So, there's a quick flip on these 'a brewing. If you can buy for 3.5 or less on the weekend, they should jump to around 4 tix on Monday/Tuesday.

Note, this trade is something I explored last year with the THS prerelease. I made the call on Twitter, and it worked out. I think they key part is that the draft format needs to be a TTT or M15M15M15, i.e. drafts are using three of the same set. This means that drafters put a lot of demand on the supply of boosters. It won't work as well for a second or third set booster, so it's not worthwhile in those cases.

Keep an eye on this dynamic. It’s no slam dunk because of the wildcards discussed above, but it seems a reasonably safe way to earn yourself a free draft or two.

They have been doing a great job with Core Set Limited in recent years. Enjoy the new set, and don't worry too much about EV if you are having a good time.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

Secondary Markets

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I backed the game Star Realms on Kickstarter. You know this. I said I was going to do it. I suggested you all do it and most of you said "Meh" and some of you are as frothy-mouthed and fanatical as I am. The game is addictive and quick to play, and its recent release on Android and iPhone as well as other computing platforms has brought even more people to the game.

The game is $15 MSRP and comes with everything two players need to play. "Great" I thought. "Everything is self-contained and there are no singles so there won't be a secondary market."

Oh, Jason, you poor, naive son of a gun.

This week, Nick Becvar was kicking around eBay and noticed something insane.

Untitled

 

I was given a stack of these promos for supporting kickstarter, and I gave most of them away.

Worse than that, I scooped in the finals of a local tournament and refused prize because I already had 2 Star Realms playmats and a stack of the promos!

Worse than that, I played with my deck unsleeved and the cards are jacked up beyond repair.

You know how you see torn up Alpha power and say "What kind of asshole would tear their cards up like that?" Me! I did! In 2014! A professional financier gave away exclusive promos, refused them as prizes and jacked up Alpha cards. With decks sold out and not available hardly anywhere, sealed decks are going for triple their MSRP of $15 on eBay right now.

Folks, never forget how these things work. Even if there is no need for a secondary market, one is still going to exist. Gamers gonna game, and if the game is good, like I absolutely think Star Realms is, secondary markets gonna.. mark?

Anyway, the next time a game like this comes along, I'm getting every promo I can get my hands on. And I'm playing with freaking sleeves. I don't care if the cards don't fit in the box after.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free4 Comments on Secondary Markets

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Time-Lapse Altering

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Jason wrote a few days ago about how awesome of an alterist Eric Klug is (it's true). He did the latest token for Brainstorm Brewery and it looks incredible.

See for yourself
See for yourself

Ever wonder how it's done? Someone went to the trouble of making a beautiful time-lapse presentation of the steps to create the alter of a Black Lotus. It's pretty cool to watch the process, and you can find it here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Casual, Feature, FreeTagged 1 Comment on Time-Lapse Altering

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: Grand Prix Boston Modern Metagame Primer

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Grand Prix Boston is this weekend, and Modern is the name of the game. We are in the midst of a Modern Pro Tour Qualifier season, so this Grand Prix will act as midseason checkup for the health of the format.

Grand Prix Richmond was held just after the Modern Pro Tour Born of the Gods, and I expect the majority of the field simply copied decks from that event without extensive thought or practice. Grand Prix Minneapolis was in the middle of Standard season, and I suspect most participants hadn't been playing much Modern leading up to it.

The Grand Prix this weekend comes at a time of the season when the grinding competitive player is fully immersed in the Modern format. Players who have piloted a deck through the season will bring it to the Grand Prix, while many will copy decklists from PTQs, meaning PTQ results should paint a pretty accurate picture of what the Grand Prix metagame will look like.

I have been studying all the Modern results I can get my hands on, and some things are apparent:

Decks You Will Play Against

Birthing Pod

Melira Pod- Andrew Tenjum

Maindeck

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Razorverge Thicket
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Temple Garden
1 Godless Shrine
3 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Woodland Cemetery
3 Gavony Township
1 Qasali Pridemage
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Noble Hierarch
1 Viscera Seer
3 Voice of Resurgence
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Wall of Roots
1 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
1 Spellskite
4 Kitchen Finks
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Eternal Witness
1 Ranger of Eos
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
1 Murderous Redcap
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
1 Reveillark
1 Shriekmaw
4 Birthing Pod
3 Chord of Calling
2 Abrupt Decay

Sideboard

1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Dismember
2 Lingering Souls
2 Sin Collector
1 Entomber Exarch
4 Thoughtseize
1 Harmonic Sliver

If any deck defines Modern, this is it. Since it actually comes in a variety of forms, a more correct statement would be: "If any card defines Modern, Birthing Pod defines Modern."

Birthing Pod sees the most play in BGW, either with the Melira, Sylvok Outcast-Persist creature combo, or the version that eschews it to play more maindeck disruption along with the Archangel of Thune-Spike Feeder combo. There is also a RGWU version of Birthing Pod that uses the Restoration Angel-Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker combo.

Regardless of the version, Birthing Pod decks seek to accelerate mana in the early game, land its namesake card and create an unbeatable value-engine. With immense tutoring capabilities, the deck can find specific answers to problems or assemble a combo. Beyond this, the deck seeks to win through aggression, with the BGW versions including Gavony Township.

Fighting against Birthing Pod can be done in a variety of ways. The primary way is with creature removal, ideally turning off mana acceleration to slow the deck down. Cards like Path to Exile and Pillar of Flame are particularly useful because they turn off Persist creatures and Voice of Resurgence. Creature removal can also be used to disrupt Birthing Pod chains or stop a combo.

Another way to attack the archetype is with hate cards, such as graveyard removal for stopping some value and the Persist combo, or with Stony Silence to stop the namesake card. Torpor Orb can be used to stop many triggers. One of the most effective dedicated hate card is Grafdigger's Cage, which stops Birthing Pod, Chord of Calling and even Persist creatures.

Keep in mind that the deck will often bring in its own disruption (and anti-hate) if it isn't maindeck, the key cards being Abrupt Decay and Thoughtseize.

Affinity

Affinity-Chris Kroneberger

Maindeck

1 Island
3 Glimmervoid
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Inkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Vault Skirge
2 Memnite
3 Steel Overseer
4 Ornithopter
4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Signal Pest
4 Etched Champion
4 Springleaf Drum
3 Galvanic Blast
4 Thoughtcast
4 Cranial Plating
4 Mox Opal

Sideboard

2 Ethersworn Canonist
2 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Spellskite
1 Torpor Orb
1 Illness in the Ranks
3 Ancient Grudge
3 Thoughtseize

Affinity is the go-to aggressive deck of the format, and it's capable of blisteringly fast starts. It is very combo-like in nature, in that it plays many enabling cog-type cards with powerful flagships, Cranial Plating and Arcbound Ravager, that take advantage of the pieces.

The deck also has a combo-kill by pairing a flagship card with Inkmoth Nexus. Etched Champion is nearly impossible to kill and leads to a lot of free wins. Affinity has the tools to race combo decks and out-pressure and exhaust the midrange decks. It remains one of the most popular and successful decks in the metagame, and it's always a popular choice in PTQ and GP.

The best way to attack Affinity is disrupt them at all stages. Nothing is better than dedicated artifact hate, the best options being Stony Silence, Ancient Grudge, Kataki, War's Rage and Creeping Corrosion.

Moving beyond artifact hate, creature removal is excellent, especially cheap removal that can hit more than one creature, like Pyroclasm and Electrolyze. Other disruption, like discard and cheap counterspells, are also surprisingly strong against Affinity. Without any real card advantage or late-game tools, the longer the game goes, the less likely Affinity is to win, so take on the control role.

Keep in mind that Affinity has a sideboard dedicated to various forms of disruption. They will always have answers to opposing hate cards, so it's advised not to completely rely on any one card.

Splinter Twin Combo

Splinter Twin- Chris Mascioli

Maindeck

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
5 Island
1 Mountain
4 Sulfur Falls
3 Steam Vents
1 Desolate Lighthouse
1 Stomping Ground
2 Vendilion Clique
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Deceiver Exarch
2 Pestermite
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
4 Serum Visions
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Dispel
2 Flame Slash
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Peek
4 Remand
1 Electrolyze
4 Splinter Twin
2 Cryptic Command

Sideboard

3 Blood Moon
2 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Negate
1 Batterskull
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Vedalken Shackles

This deck is based around Splinter Twin or Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker and a creature that will untap another to create an infinite loop of infinite hasted creatures, either Pestermite or Deceiver Exarch. Supplementing this plan is a bunch of card selection to find the combo along with disruption in the form of creature removal and counterspells. The deck often cuts down on the combo and takes on the control role post-sideboard, while some versions even maindeck Tarmogoyf in order to better fight fair and play more of a tempo game.

Attacking the deck should be done with discard, removal and counterspells. Something like a single held-back Abrupt Decay can make it impossible for them to combo, which is why many will cut down on combo pieces after sideboard. Dedicated hate includes Torpor Orb and Spellskite.

It's important to be prepared for the combo, but also to be able to grind out a control deck, which makes this archetype difficult to sideboard against and makes it one of the best decks around.

BG Rock/Jund

BG Rock - Wilson Mok

Maindeck

2 Woodland Cemetery
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Treetop Village
3 Overgrown Tomb
2 Forest
2 Swamp
4 Tectonic Edge
1 Twilight Mire
2 Marsh Flats
2 Courser of Kruphix
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant
4 Scavenging Ooze
2 Thrun, the Last Troll
4 Abrupt Decay
3 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Slaughter Pact
2 Dismember
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Liliana of the Veil

Sideboard

1 Duress
3 Creeping Corrosion
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Obstinate Baloth
2 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Batterskull
1 Kitchen Finks

These decks play a core of incredibly efficient creatures, including Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant and Scavenging Ooze, along with the best disruption in Thoughtseize, Abrupt Decay and Liliana of the Veil.

A classic rock deck, it wins by applying pressure and removal, sometimes racing the opponent, but often just grinding them down to nothing. This is one of the most simple and straightforward decks in Modern, but it's one of the best and has been a strong performer through the PTQ season. The red version, Jund, simply stretches the mana for more powerful red cards, which makes it stronger against creature opponents. Some also splash white for more answers to Affinity, Tron and combo decks. I'd expect BG to be the most popular at the GP, with some flavor mixed in.

Sideboarding against this strategy is different compared to most Modern matchups. The deck has no single weakness or necessary card, and it has plenty of answers to anything the opponent can muster. The best way to fight this deck is to simply buff up the maindeck and cut down the chaff. I would focus on grinding and fighting an attrition war, so I'd cut cards that are weak there and overload on value and power. Popular cards for this matchup include Batterskull and Threads of Disloyalty, both of which must be answered or may steal a game outright.

Middle of the Road

UWR Control

UWR Control - Robert Tissot

Maindeck

1 Mountain
1 Plains
3 Island
2 Sulfur Falls
4 Celestial Colonnade
2 Steam Vents
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Arid Mesa
3 Tectonic Edge
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Sphinx's Revelation
3 Path to Exile
4 Electrolyze
2 Lightning Helix
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Shadow of Doubt
1 Wrath of God
1 Supreme Verdict
4 Cryptic Command
2 Remand
3 Mana Leak
2 Spell Snare

Sideboard

1 Shadow of Doubt
1 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
2 Counterflux
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Wear // Tear
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Porphyry Nodes
2 Stony Silence
1 Celestial Purge
1 Spellskite
1 Crucible of Worlds

UWR Kiki- Michael Bernat

Maindeck

2 Tectonic Edge
3 Celestial Colonnade
4 Arid Mesa
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Cascade Bluffs
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Seachrome Coast
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Snapcaster Mage
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
4 Restoration Angel
4 Wall of Omens
3 Path to Exile
3 Cryptic Command
1 Lightning Helix
2 Mana Leak
2 Remand
2 Spell Snare
3 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt

Sideboard

2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Wrath of God
2 Dispel
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Negate
1 Path to Exile
1 Wear//Tear
1 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence
1 Anger of the Gods

UWR has access to some of the best cards in Modern, and they combine to create a strong package. This deck comes in two main variations, a dedicated control deck and a combo deck. Both decks play most of the same tools, with the control versions playing more disruption and value and the combo versions more creatures as combo pieces. Both decks are strong, and both have been represented throughout PTQ and GP top 8s.

I would be prepared to play against the UWR strategy this weekend, though it won't be as popular as the other decks. Specific hate cards to punish this deck include Choke and Boil. Thrun, the Last Troll is very hard for the control version to beat, while I'd attack the combo version with creature removal.

Scapeshift

Scapeshift-Daryl Ayers

Maindeck

2 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Mountain
2 Forest
3 Island
4 Stomping Ground
4 Steam Vents
2 Flooded Grove
2 Breeding Pool
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Gigadrowse
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Izzet Charm
2 Electrolyze
4 Scapeshift
3 Peer Through Depths
4 Remand
4 Cryptic Command
3 Farseek
4 Search for Tomorrow

Sideboard

1 Gigadrowse
2 Nature's Claim
2 Shatterstorm
3 Obstinate Baloth
2 Inferno Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Negate
1 Counterflux
1 Swan Song
1 Engineered Explosives

It would be foolish to forget about Scapeshift, the one-card combo deck. This deck operates as a mana-ramp control deck in the early game before it hits 7+ lands and searches up Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and a bunch of Mountain with its namesake card. This deck is best fought with disruption, particularly discard and land destruction. Counterspells are also fine, but the opponent is capable of fighting and winning a counter war.

Tron

Tron- Brad Eier

Maindeck

1 Eye of Ugin
1 Forest
2 Ghost Quarter
4 Grove of the Burnwillows
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Mine
3 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Sundering Titan
4 Oblivion Stone
3 Relic of Progenitus
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Expedition Map
3 Pyroclasm
4 Sylvan Scrying
4 Ancient Stirrings
1 Dismember
4 Karn Liberated

Sideboard

4 Nature's Claim
3 Defense Grid
3 Boil
1 Combust
2 Torpor Orb
2 Spellskite

Urzatron decks have seemed to fall from flavor, but it's still one of the most powerful decks in Modern and is capable of easily going over the top of the fair decks. It seems to always be popular in paper events, and it's something I would not simply ignore this weekend. Land destruction is at its best here, while discard and counterspells are also quite good.

Decks You Won't See Across the Table

Amulet of Vigor Combo

This deck got a lot of hype at PT BNG, but it was all but nonexistent at GP Richmond. It didn't put up strong results at GP Minneapolis either, and while I have seen it top 8 a PTQ, it's not a consistent performer. I would not dedicate any slots to this matchup, but rather try to fight it with existing tools, namely resource denial, including Abrupt Decay, land destruction, discard and counterspells.

Ad Nauseam Combo

This deck has been a bit more successful than Amulet Combo, including a 9th place finish at PT BNG, but in the time since, it has not been a consistent performer nor put up any notable finishes. This is a fringe combo deck, and it requires no special preparation. I'd attack it the same way as I attack other combo decks by loading on resource denial. Lifegain is also a reasonable way to attack this deck, though some versions use cards like Laboratory Manic or even Death's Shadow.

Possibility Storm Combo

This deck is about as fringe as it gets right now. It may be a strong deck, but it's certainly not popular enough to require special attention. I would attack it just like any other combo deck, but keep in mind the opponent does a fine job of playing as a control deck. I first saw the deck get 2nd in a Japanese PTQ. I wrote about the deck over at Tcgplayer two weeks ago, and since that time another list made top 8 of another Japanese PTQ. It's worth exploring, so check it out:

Possibility Storm- Keita Tonouchi

Maindeck

4 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
4 Tolaria West
2 Zoetic Cavern
1 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Island
1 Mountain
1 Ornithopter
2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Gigadrowse
4 Mana Leak
4 Remand
4 Izzet Charm
3 Think Twice
4 Cryptic Command
4 Serum Visions
4 Possibility Storm

Sideboard

4 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Pyroclasm
2 Combust
2 Negate
2 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Pact of Negation

Good luck this weekend! I'll answer any questions in the comments.

-Adam

For reference:
WotC Modern PTQ Decklists

Japanese PTQ Decklists

The Saltiest Loser on MTGO This Week

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Anyone who has played a decent amount of MTGO will tell you that you're bound to run into a salty loser from time to time. But Graham Stark (@Graham_LRR) of Loading Ready Run recently experienced something truly special.

photo1 (4)

 

To see the whole exchange, visit the Imgur link from Graham's tweet here.

It's simultaneously shocking that someone would be so salty over a card game and also completely unsurprising for anyone who has played MTGO more than a handful of times. Above all, it's hilarious. You've got to appreciate the balls it takes to call someone a "LUCKTURD" and tell him he "LUCKSAGGED HARD," then quickly turn around and ask for a concession for ... reasons?

The most interesting part of this to me is the salty opponent saying, "I AM MUTED INDEFINTELY." Like Graham, I did not know this was a thing. On one hand, it's nice to see Wizards of the Coast attempting to protect players from toxic personalities like this one, but on the other hand, it seems like they didn't really succeed in this case. It's a tough situation for the Magic Online team: people like this spend money to play Magic Online, and making money is the whole point of the business. But attitudes and actions like we're seeing today may drive away other players from the product. How do you balance the comfort and well-being of the MTGO community against the needs of the business to maximize profits?

Regardless, you have to admire the will to hate that our mystery MTGO player has exhibited today. I like to think that once a player has been muted by MTGO, he learns a lesson and changes his behavior. But that's not what happened here. Natalie Weizenbaum (@nex3) said it best:

photo2 (3)

 

Do you have an especially salty opponent story to share? You know what to do.

Avatar photo

Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

View More By Danny Brown

Posted in Free4 Comments on The Saltiest Loser on MTGO This Week

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation