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Over the past few weeks I've discussed my transition into focus on MTGO, and switching out of Paper Magic. This has been a very educational process thus far, and I am confident more lessons are on their way. This is really a two fold process: Closing all of my Paper specs; and moving into MTGO markets. Closing paper specs can be easy, and for the most part I took the least time consuming route by unloading most of my stuff via dealers.
While knowing I'm coughing up a small amount of value by doing so, the time I saved was more valuable to me. I've held onto a handful of cards to have a single deck to play with, and that's about it. Transitioning to MTGO has been slower than expected. The main issue is the huge time sink that comes into being a savvy investor on MTGO. That being said, I'm setting up a process for myself to make things as simple as possible.
The major time sink in speculating on MTGO is the format in which trades take place. The only real method for finding places to buy and sell cards is on the classifieds which has an awful search feature and absolutely no mechanism for sorting. If you're looking to buy a card, you simply have to scan classifieds looking for the best price, or use major bot-chains like MTGOLibrary to search on the web prior to accessing bots via the MTGO client. The other side of it is just as time consuming, when looking to sell off cards; however, I've found that creating your own classified to offload cards is much better.
The key is to frequently remove and repost it while you're logged into the client. This ensures that your classified is easily found. Posting your own classifieds is important because not only do you get better value than what the bots offer, but you're often actually able to sell more volume this way. Most bots have a cap as to the quantity of a single card they will buy from you, but if you are slightly undercutting Bot Sell prices, and list your cards as sold by "HUMAN" you'll get a decent response, and most people I've talked to prefer to buy from a person rather than a bot. Mostly because prices are lower, but also it just "feels" right. Given that I'm spending significantly more time to acquire and offload cards than I would in paper, I need to have an effective tracking method to minimize times spent on other facets of speculation.
To contrast the drawbacks to speculating on MTGO, there are some key upsides. The primary benefit is the lack of physical cards. No sorting, no searching for where you left a certain card, no wondering "Wait, do I still have that set of X?" and no worries about condition. You also get a handy filter in your MTGO account, but it's lacking in the features I'd like to see. As a result, I built myself a spreadsheet for tracking my speculations on MTGO without getting them confused with my other junk stuck on my account. Feel free to use or adapt this to your own needs, and if you need a spreadsheet to do something else , I'd be happy to help any Insider customize this sheet to their needs. The theory here is I'll have a front page of my current speculation portfolio and an additional sheet to track closed positions.
On the portfolio side, most of the fields are obvious. Tracking the quantity and price that you got in at is important, but also important is the % of your portfolio that is being used by that single position. If you have one position that greatly outweighs the others in terms of percentage, you're not doing yourself much of a service by diversifying. Diversification of risk is not just how many different positions you hold, but how large they are in comparison to your portfolio. As of this writing, my portfolio has 3 positions, you'll see two of them make up 25% each while the other makes up 50%.
Ideally, my positions would be fairly evenly spread, unless I specifically chose one position to be a stronger investment than the others. My goal in terms of speculation is to get 10 solid specs in the list that each make up about the same percent of the portfolio. This protects you from huge dips in a single card, while also hurts you when only one of your positions is gaining. Each time you open or close a position you should re-evaluate your portfolio and see if you should shift any of your quantities held around to keep the portfolio balanced.
On the Closed Speculations sheet you can track your results. You can see about how frequently you close your positions, giving you an idea on how much time cards typically stay in your inventory. This is important, because when you have specs that aren't moving, you need to know how long you're willing to sit on that idea. With each spec you make you should have a general timeline for how long until you expect it to move. My most confident position right now is Nephalia Drownyard (Notice the pros are already starting to play this card? Both Michael Hetrick and Sam Black are playing it now.) and I expect it to peak around the release of Gatecrash.
When I assess my results, I want to know how accurate my estimations were so I can use that information to revise expectations of other positions while also improving my ability to estimate future predictions. Secondly, you have the track record of gains and losses. It's easy to remember your big gains and losses, but sometimes the small movements are hard to gauge their impact as a whole on your portfolio with out actually keeping track of the numbers and revisiting them. Keep yourself honest.
For those of you who frequent the Forums here, I am going to start a thread for tracking MTGO Bots. (If you aren't using the Forums, you are really missing out). My primary purpose is to report what I find on the Bulk Bots as I am slowly dumping old useless commons on my account that I simply have no use for. It's a painstaking task, but compiling a list of what bulk bots actually will buy and for what price will help you keep the time spent hunting classifieds to a minimum. My time frame for completing all of my bulk sales is still unknown, but I will be updating that thread rather than revisiting this topic again in the future.
Are there key features to tracking your portfolio that I didn't include? What are other issues that come up with speculation online that we can make easier by sharing information in the Forums?
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I really like to brew. Iām not nearly as good at brewing as I am at tweaking existing archetypes, but that has never stopped me from staying up until 4 A.M. hashing out what would fit best in a dedicated Augury Adept pile. Legacy is far and away the format that I have had the most success with, but I have never come close to brewing a remotely viable Legacy deck. That may have changed last night.
Iāve been thinking about Deathrite Shaman a lot lately. The card has proven to be very strong in Standard and phenomenal in Modern. As of yet I havenāt seen the card take off in Legacy. I mean, Iāve seen people playing it, but in shells that I donāt think are competitive enough. Thereās a local player that shoe-horned the card into Nic Fit, but at the end of the day heās still playing Nic Fit. Iād like to play a deck that doesnāt need to mulligan into Veteran Explorer plus Cabal Therapy to even play Magic.
What Should a Deathrite Shaman Deck Look Like?
Iāve heard the comparison to Grim Lavamancer many times, but I donāt think it fits at all. Lavaman isnāt about just doming your opponent- itās largely about killing creatures. Shaman also isnāt all that much about doming your opponent. It serves as a mana accelerant, a graveyard hoser, a clock, and in a pinch it gains life, too. The best Deathrite Shaman deck is going to take advantage of all of these things.
Most of what the card does is exploited simply by virtue of playing a game of Magic, but exploiting the mana acceleration in the best way is the key to building the best Deathrite Shaman deck. Strong three drops and one/two drops that synergize effectively on turn two seem to be the ticket.
Along this line of thought, the best turn two plays that I came up with were the following:
Liliana of the Veil
Weāll start with the most obvious of the turn two plays I came up with. Liliana is a card that has seen on and off play in Legacy and has always been on my radar. I think that the problem previously was that she didnāt have a very strong home, but I believe I found one for her. She shines in any deck that battles for attrition and thatās exactly where my list landed. Liliana plays very well with cards like Dark Confidant and Life from the Loam, and youād best believe that this is the direction the deck is going.
Having too many threes is a good way to do nothing while your opponent kills you in Legacy, so while I am excited about Liliana I believe that the following card combinations are even more important to the deck.
Dark Confidant + Discard/Spell Pierce
The ability to play a Dark Confidant with Spell Pierce backup on turn two can be quite devastating. This will make it so that your opponent will have to have either two removal spells or one with counter backup to deal with your Bob. On turn two. Even if they do have that combination theyāre still not doing anything proactive. Leaving the Spell Pierce up against combo decks while safely landing a Bob goes a very long way as well.
Being able to Thoughtseize or Inquisition of Kozilek to protect Bob or to disrupt combos is also very clearly powerful. Of course, when it comes to the discard suite Iām starting with four Cabal Therapy because of the following card:
Baleful Strix + Cabal Therapy
Baleful Strix has mostly only been showing up in Tezzeret decks, but I think that the card is absolutely playable ipso facto. It trades with literal everything and draws a card while doing so. Against combo decks it is a prime candidate for being sacrificed to Therapy. Itās not as explosive as a Veteran Explorer, but Iām not building an explosive deck, I am building a consistent deck.
And the Rest
From here we get to some obvious inclusions like Brainstorm and to a lesser extent Abrupt Decay. That leaves us with the following list:
Shaman Aināt Easy
spells
4 Deathrite Shaman
4 Dark Confidant
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Abrupt Decay
4 Baleful Strix
4 Brainstorm
1 Life from the Loam
2 Darkblast
3 Spell Pierce
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Intuition
3 Liliana of the Veil
1 Thoughtseize
lands
2 Misty Rainforest
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Polluted Delta
4 Wasteland
2 Tropical Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Bayou
2 Swamp
1 Island
1 Creeping Tar Pit
I prefer having Intuition over a second copy of Life from the Loam, and it also has added utility of specifically tutoring for Wateland and Creeping Tar Pit. Not to mention that it can at times just search for three copies of a given spell.
Two Darkblast is probably wrong, but I havenāt yet made my mind up on what to run over it. Another discard spell, a Ghastly Demise or an Innocent Blood are all enticing options. All I know for certain is that I probably want whatever takes the space to cost one mana.
Now letās talk about some notable omissions:
Force of Will
The two major points that I have against Force is that taking five with Bob sucks and that with a bunch of discard spells it is unnecessary in a lot of matchups. Iāll probably have somewhere between two and four in the sideboard for combo decks, but there is not a single fair deck that a BUG deck needs Force against. Itās miserable against RUG, pretty bad against Maverick and unnecessary against Miracles.
Daze
This deck is specifically trying to play a long game. Daze just doesnāt make any sense in this shell.
Delver of Secrets
All of the BUG lists that Iāve seen lately have had some sort of Delver shell, with a high density of instants and sorceries. My list, alternatively, is built around the power level of the creatures featured and of Liliana of the Veil. Additionally, I am by no means trying to race anybody, so an aggressive creature like Delver really doesnāt fit the bill.
Engineered Explosives + Academy Ruins
If I find that games are going long enough and that having more colorless lands doesn't hurt too much I could see fitting these cards into the deck. As of now I'm not convinced that they are necessary and they are probably too slow. I could very well be wrong here on all counts.
~
This deck is entirely the product of a late-night brewing session yesterday, so it would be extremely arrogant for me to claim that it will be a force in Legacy. I can easily see changing the numbers on many of the cards as I battle with it and learn more about how its matchups play out. That said I am optimistic about the potential that this list has, and I fully intend to battle with it at local Legacy events when I can find time to do so. Iāll be sure to write about any updates and how the deck plays when I know more, and am very open to any suggestions that anybody may have.
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What follows is an outline of five cash purchases I'm considering as speculative investments. Each will include some of the reasoning behind the picks and some basic rules to follow if the purchase gets made.
The Event Deck Play
The first purchase is one Sigmund brought to my attention here. The M13 event deck: Repeat Performance. Buying these individually for 23$ or less seems like a good deal. I like both for 30$ better. The highlights of Repeat performance include a single Thragtusk, two Razorverge Thickets, a Blade Splicer and a Geist-Honored Monk. That reads to me like a blue chip standard rare, two blue chip modern rares and two more red chip rares.Ā Buying both M13 event decks for thirty means an extra 5$ gets you a Darkslick Shores, two Slagstorms, and a full playset of Dismembers.
Anyone considering these deals need to be able to move Thragtusk or be willing to flip to a dealer at $14. Presently, Thragtusk remains a very popular card despite its inclusion in this M13 Deck and the latest RTR event deck. While the priceĀ resilienceĀ looksĀ surprisingĀ at first glance, a quick look at competitive Standard decklists gives a good reason for the card's current evaluation. The biggest risk this purchase presents a buyer is obtaining theĀ necessaryĀ Thragtusk valuation.
Modern staples Razorverge Thicket and Darkslick Shores give buyers a margin of safety. While Modern cards are approaching seasonal lows, a late December rise in values should make turning a profit pretty easy with these purchases. Blade Splicer and Slagstorm give you two borderline playable cards that are easy to move. As long as Lingering Souls is being played, there will be a market for Geist-Honored Monk.
Single Targets
Next couple of purchases will target individual cards. First up, Inkmoth Nexus. This card is the backbone of any Infect deck and that ability is too powerful to not see play. Any purchase at $4 should turn black in 45 days. TCG has a few NM copies at this price as I write this article and while Ebay pricing is moving higher already, there are still some to be had around the $4 target. The card saw enough play while in Standard that trading to pick up copies is an option. For that reason, be very frugal with your cash and look to buy only at $4.
Blackcleave Cliffs is a great Modern target at $4.50 or less. Both Ebay andĀ TCG have multiple copies listed around $4 in NM condition. B/R will form the backbone of many a competitive Modern deck. Of every Magic format, Modern has the most room to grow. I expect that as the format gets more tournament support, the cards in the format will see a big rise in valuation. Much like Legacy before it, ModernĀ shouldĀ put in a higher floor for staples. The easiest way to position oneself for that kind of movement is to get a hold of some real estate in the form of lands. The larger the format, the more the broader demand for landsĀ benefitsĀ you. Instead of figuring out the next hot piece to a deck, enjoy the safety of fastlands. Their inclusion is almost automatic, assuming the deck runs the appropriate colors.
Next up... another land. River of Tears is selling for less than 2$ all over the place. This card should at least get to today's prices for Darkslick Shores as its drawback is easy enough to play around early. Considering how many Darkslick Shores and other Scars lands are still in binders, I find the pricing of River of Tears a bit ridiculous. Maybe no one remembers playing with it? I am very interested in picking these up at around $ 1.80, as I expect they'll climb to around $3 in short order.
Finally, a card with a home outside of Modern: Phantasmal Image. This card at $5 is worth a look. It functions as a lord, making it a 4-of in any Merfolk deck. For 2cc you can copy hexproof creatures, kill legends and either trigger enter theĀ battlefieldĀ effects or replicate those effects. This card is played in Legacy, and with Simic promising more Merfolk has a good chance to become a regular in Modern. At 2cc, even Legacy can't ignore Phantasmal Image. While it is hard to find this guy for less than 4.5$, a quick survey of TCG prices suggests that even stores are not sure how to value this guy. Playing that spread when trading for Phantasmal Image makes him a great trade target too.
Lessons Learned
There are plenty of cheap, readily available Modern targets. Most should beĀ acquiredĀ through trade (see Phyrexian Metamorph, Birthing Pod, Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite). When surveying the field of Magic formats ask yourself what is over-hyped/over-valued and look to trade out. Trading away from hype and into value will help you unlock value and let you both flip cards quickly AND maintain an inventory of growth plays. Buying into M13 event decks, looking to trade Thragtusk at TCG mid prices for future Modern Staples, will maximize your dollar.
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Grand Prix: Chicago was this past weekend and the format was Modern. How good for us! Modern moves a lot of card prices, even though it doesn't get played that much. It's the reason that Remand and Kitchen Finks are worth so much; why Path to Exile pushes $5 in the face of so many reprints. The PTQ season is coming up and Modern cards are going to be in demand for awhile. With continued WOTC support, with Modern Masters, with shocklands being reprinted, this format is coming together... if it can deal with Jund.
Should we be upset about losing to Jund?
A 74-card mirror Jund match concluded the event. All Jund does is get more than one cards' value out of a card through most of its deck. Do you get upset when you lose to it? After all, it's full of fair monsters and it rarely kills before turn 6 or so. It doesn't execute dumb combos. All it does is this illusion where every card it casts translates to insane value. I suppose I get frustrated when that deck goes Thoughtseize, Dark Confidant, Liliana, Bloodbraid Elf, but what can you get rid of to make the rest fair? Bloodbraid Elf is a likely target, but I feel like the core of the deck would remain.
Jund's dominance pushes on a lot of other decks. Good luck, Delver - your Geists are just going to get overwhelmed. Counterspells are a bit worse because many of the Jund deck's spells are interchangeable. It really pushes on the big Tron decks that intend to do things other than summon Karn on turn 3. Jund decks also have enough disruption so that they can reasonably fight storm combo, though the Second Sunrise deck still gives them problems.
What's worth betting on in Jund? I would have said Maelstrom Pulse, but Abrupt Decay has mostly invalidated that card. Good proof that sometimes, even the sure bets get blown out by new printings. Dark Confidant is a fine bet, since I think we'll see it in Modern Masters - which means it won't get banned before then. The lands are good and will remain good, and Raging Ravine ($1.50) is going to be good for a long time. Ravine doesn't get the love that Creeping Tar Pit does, but it's an integral element of Jund. It makes a really oppressive monster that shrugs off Lingering Souls tokens. "When I finally get through," the elemental says as it adds another counter, "it'll make up for all this chump blocking."
Lingering Souls is an obvious choice for stocking up on
Originally printed in Alpha!
Lingering Souls ($1.75) came up in Spirit Jund and in the Gifts deck. It's a power uncommon from an under-drafted set. Lingering Souls is going to be worthwhile for a long time, in spans of years. Let's just put it this way on this card: Spectral Procession ($2.75) is a worse card and it's worth nearly twice what Lingering Souls is. Do you see Lingering Souls getting played in four years? I do. That card is steady - you play it and the first copy keeps you from dying and the second makes you win.
Lingering Souls is at a nadir of price right now because it isn't seeing Standard play. This isn't going to last. Remember that Orzhov is coming up in a few months and Godless Shrine will accompany it. There will be a lot of B/W cards to try out; even something on the power level of Zealous Persecution would make the Souls great. Lingering Souls is a good card to chew up the U/W Miracles decks that are doing well, and we might even see something that stops Thragtusk as early as Gatecrash (but we might have to wait until Dragon's Maze for that).
Deathrite Shaman is highly liquid but probably at a price ceiling
Deathrite Shaman was all over the top tables, too. I came in with a dim view of this guy at the beginning. he's hard to understand, you know? It's like a bad Grim Lavamancer or a bad Birds of Paradise. Turns out, a bad version of both of those in one card is really stone-cold. Deathrite Shaman puts a lot of pressure on Lingering Souls decks, since it can scoop away their Flashback spells for value. It can really screw up a Gifts deck, since it's much harder to set up Unburial RitesĀ + Elesh Norn. This is a very, very good little monster. I am packing Deathrites in my Gifts board and I'll probably justify some copies of Slay, too. You just can't let these live, and hitting them with a Path to Exile is one of the worst feelings that there is.
The Shaman is about $8 shipped right now and there's been a lot of internal debate on the QS Forum about his price ceiling. Deathrite Shaman isn't seeing much love in Standard, so he doesn't track with Snapcaster Mage completely. However, this card is going to be gold for years to come. I don't know if he has the price durability that Noble Hierarch has and that's because you need to be playing both green and black to get the best results from it. Packing only black is doable, but it's not as versatile. I think Deathrite Shaman is going to top out at $10. The bad news is that we can't speculate much on him. The good news is that he's highly desirable, as evidenced by several posters talking about how quickly they traded their copies away. Trading Standard cards involves a lot of touchstones for price; trading into and out of Shamans is going to be one of those metrics.
Ā That Gifts Ungiven deck is pretty crazy, right?
I'm big big big on Gifts decks. I wrote about a Coalition Relic Gifts deck awhile back on the site and I'm glad to see a Gifts deck continuing to do well. I actually ended up brainstorming a list that was about nine cards away from Shane's list, but he got a big check and I didn't! I think his list is about 90% there, but there's a bit of junk in it. You don't need Darkblast, for instance. The combo of Lingering Souls + Deathrite Shaman to make a turn-2 Souls is really fly, and Liliana is doing good work in this deck. I hesitate because Shamans make Gifts for Rites a lot worse, but lots of decks aren't going to have Shaman or have it in time and they'll lose.
I don't see a whole lot of profit to be made here, but Gifts Ungiven remains a powerful card in this format and it's one that people love to get and trade for. The art is sicko. This is another reason that Lingering Souls is going to be around for awhile. McDermott mentioned that the deck has issues with Jund and that it's about a coin flip, but if you dedicate some sideboard cards to beating Jund (cards like SUNLANCE), you can swing it more favorably. If you could fit Gideon Jura in, I feel like that match would get really silly.
More Modern quick hits
Modern Masters doesn't come out until next June, meaning that there's no sense in selling off staples just yet. The PTQs for Dragon's Maze start next spring, so Modern Masters will have zero effect on the season or the accessibility of cards. However, we'll have the full set of reprinted duals by then and I think that those, combined with Modern Masters, are going to pull a lot more people in.
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Despite being married to a cinephobe I managed to make it to three different movies last week, more than I've seen in theaters in the last year. I found Flight, which looked like total Oscar bait but compelling nonetheless, to be deeply flawed. Its serious moments were spoiled by poor dialogue and unintentional comic moments, which made the deliberate attempts at humor even more jarring. I expected a little better and was disappointed.
After Avengers, the movie I looked forward to the most in 2012 was Skyfall, and even that left me feeling let down. Instead of epitomizing British style and sophistication, the franchise comes back from the brink of oblivion (read more here) by borrowing from Hollywood's lowest common denominator cliches. The "computers can do anything" hacker subplot, the Goldbergian booby traps from Nightmare on Elm Street, the haphazard throwback to classic Bond films.
It all leaves you wondering whether this movie belongs to the new continuity started by Casino Royale or the 50-year-long "many actors, one Bond" continuity with more questions than answers. James Bond isn't the "James Bourne" of Casino or Quantum but rather a stern-faced and stoic mish-mash of John McClane in Die Hard 4 and Kevin McCallister in Home Alone --a combination that should result in more comic one-liners yet somehow results in fewer.
The only movie I actually liked was Wreck-It Ralph. I'm not sure adults need to see this one unless they're accompanying their children, but at least it left me entertained.
All this exposition seems necessary to explain how this week, I'm used to disappointment.
Announcing Dragon's Maze
"Oh, that's so cool! They kept the 'R-G-D' scheme the same as the last block."
-- Lots of you, for some reason
I'd like to be done crapping on everything so I'm actually doing my level best to get swept up in the wave of enthusiasm that surrounded Wizard's announcement this weekend.
Initially I allowed snark to take over and my first reaction was "Wow, they've really outdone themselves. I didn't think it was possible to come up with a worse set name than "Gatecrash" but somehow they managed to beat the odds." Then, something curious happened.
Saved By... Reddit?
That's right, Reddit.com, home to kickass deckboxes, fan-made expansion sets and its new patron saint, artist Noah Bradley. I have a very curious relationship with Reddit, which took on a whole new dynamic this week.
At first I was keen to find as much good Magic content on reddit as I could and share it with all of you, but as the well dried up, I found myself going all the way to page 20 every week just to find a paltry three or four things of interest. Increasingly annoyed by the high volume of obvious rules questions and other "brand new player" content, I sought refuge in r/spikes -- a subreddit for the serious tournament player.
What I found there was the "Magic is srs bsns" crew but not the content I was looking for. Tournament reports and deckbuilding queries may be more worthwhile than posts asking what happens if you Prey Upon a creature with first strike, but I don't actually want to read them. If I wanted to read tournament reports, I'd go to a website with reports written by people I actually recognize.
Frustrated, I headed back to the main r/magictcg subreddit. What I found there surprised me.
Since I was feeling snarky about the new set's stupid name (on Twitter Joe Spanier said even "Dragon Maze" would have sounded better) I was totally unprepared for the wave of relentless enthusiasm I encountered in the reddit post announcing this set.
This is me when my heart grew two sizes -- a dangerous condition known as cardiomegaly.
Here, read the entire comment section. It's sweeter than a bag of Skittles mixed in a can of Mountain Dew, but it sure cheered me up. At first I was taken aback by people's sheer earnest glee at the announcement.
Seriously?
Who the $%#^ is that?
But Maro said Nicol Bolas wasn't going to be in this block at all!
And they kept coming. People super excited about the name, the symbol, the stupid RGD letters, "OMG Same as last time!" I really couldn't help but be caught up along with them.
Most of the people in the Magic subreddit aren't the best Magic players. Most of them aren't even good at all. But that's not why you go on reddit, is it? It's not a hub of tournament reports, finance information or discussions about Limited pick orders. It is, however, a haven for people that genuinely love the $%*& out of this game and want nothing more than to talk about their excitement for the new set.
Five minutes in the right thread in that subreddit is like a cool dip in a desert oasis. All the accumulated grime of disappointment and the false sense of superiority is washed away and you're left with a clean, optimistic feeling.
There's merit to reveling in the casual aspects of this game. There's also merit to checking yourself occasionally when you find you're not as bright-eyed and in awe as you used to be. Maybe you don't let your attitude get as bad as I do sometimes, but we all need to take five from time to time and remember-- this is a card game and games are supposed to be fun.
Also:
"Gatecrash" may sound more like a mechanic than a set name, but it's still better than "Saviors of Kamigawa."
"Dragon's Maze" may sound more like a 4RRR enchantment than a set name, but it's still better than "Mercadian Masques."
Skyfall may have featured a "computer expert" who plugs a strange laptop into the entire network before asking "how did he access our network?" but it's still a better movie than Quantum of Solace
So what if it can get confusing for a second or two when you mention an RGD draft. If they ask which one, you can always say "The one that cost less than $36".
The finals at the Chicago GP was a 74-card Jund mirror. Seriously? What am I supposed to do with that?
The controversial Edgar Flores made Top 8 with the same U/W durdlefest that top-eighted the last Modern event. I kind of like this deck, a throwback to the U/W Tapout decks of a few years ago. I thought it was a good idea to snatch up [card Baneslayer Angel]Baneslayers[/card] but if you do, get them in trade because they're still around $8-$10 retail. Casuals do so love their angels. I couldn't play a deck like this for ten rounds, but it looks like fun.
Can we stop calling Affinity "Robots" please? Even if someone played an artifact creature deck with zero creatures and zero spells with the affinity mechanic I still won't call it "Robots". Stop it.
I rather liked Shane McDermott's Rites Ungiven reanimator deck (I made the name up, but it's still better than Robots). This seems like a fun strategy in Modern since the format lacks much of the graveyard hate that's so prominent in Legacy. While many of the same cards are legal, Reanimator and Dredge aren't very dominant or popular, so the impetus to run hate is low. Modern also gives you better access to fun reanimation targets than Standard. Who else already misses [card Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite]Norn[/card]?
Modern is becoming a format with an established best deck, but where pet decks can still be competitive. R/G Tron, for example, doesn't seem to depend on the meta but rather on ducking 'unfair' matchups and getting paired against decks that can't quite deal with the formidable threats it presents early. Jund has a lot of hand disruption but they can't stop your topdecks and if you make the game go long, you have a good shot.
To that end, Splinter Twin makes a heartwarming comeback. I like when this deck is the scrappy underdog and not the format-warping deck-to-beat behemoth. Right when they printed Splinter Twin I ran the deck in Extended, before we had access to Spellskite and Deceiver Exarch. It was a game of "Show me Path to Exile or let's shuffle up for the next one." Spoiler alert, they had Path a lot. Turns out Cryptic Command is poor backup for a four-mana enchantment when you've run out of Dispels.
There were seven decks in the Top 8 at Chicago. Modern is really shaping up to be a good, healthy format. Great job, everyone.
P.S. Did anyone notice the best card in Jund right now is white?
Don't Mess With-- Sorry. It Was This or a "Who Shot JR?" Joke
As the title poorly implies, there was an SCG Open this weekend in Dallas.
Not a bad Top 8. For all the whining about "Ban Thragtusk!" there were exactly eight of a possible thirty-two in the Top 8 of this event.
I was a little thrown by how fast U/W/R Miracles, the first real control deck of the season, came out. I expected it to take until about now for control to get figured out. Far beyond "figured out," these decks are already the decks to beat, muscling out all but the least fair aggro decks.
Jund, unfair in its inherent card advantage and G/W, unfair in its sheer explosiveness. Turn three Rancor on [card Loxodon Smiter]Smiter[/card], cast [card Silverblade Paladin]Silverblade[/card], swing for 12 is pretty good when your opponent only has two lands in play.
That said, the event was won by a control deck I thought fringe at first as the players wielding it were those who missed Delver the most and were having trouble letting go. This deck is the real deal though, as a [card Runechanters Pike]Pike[/card] and a pile of spent instants in your yard is good in conjunction with any dude, not just a flying nacatl. It doesn't hurt that Pike makes your [card Snapcaster Mage]Snapcaster[/card] a Thragtusk murder machine and an Augur of Bolas can handle nearly any first (or double) striker with its huge butt.
Lyev Skyknight is a human? Sure, why not? He joins a different take on the "too fast to be fair" deck that G/W has taken over but which really started with U/W Humans. It's a tossup which of the two is less fair-- Loxodon Smiter and Rancor or Geist of Saint Traft and War Falcon. That's a super unfair comparison, I know. What is also unfair is free rolling a Smiter. With Rakdos's Return gaining traction I might lean toward G/W over U/W, although Geist is so good with Sublime Archangel (otherwise known as "curving out" but better than that term usually implies). When Geist swings as a 5/5, he does so with impunity.
This time the ratio of U/W Midrange decks splashing red to straight U/W is 2:1. Thundermaw Hellkite is too legit to quit, and if the Top 8 is full of durdly angel decks (Even the Humans deck had Sublime Archangel and [card Lyev Skyknight]Skyknight[/card]), punching through them to connect to the domus is legit. Both of the midrange decks with red did better than the one without, again. Take note, metagame.
Reanimator will never disappear entirely. It's too much fun to reanimate an Angel of Serenity with Unburial Rites or "Oops, I win" a Craterhoof Behemoth with Seance. Deathrite Shaman goes up a buck or two each week accordingly. Where's the ceiling? All I know is I bought them at $4 and I bought them hard. (That sounds dirty. I just mean I bought a lot of them.) These puppies trade out above $10 no matter which site people use. Pick them up el cheapo if you can.
Despite being the most popular Magic website, StarCity can't seem to properly name decks in their coverage or post the Top 8 in the correct order. Apparently Joe Bass was not in a 4-way tie for 8th place, but rather won the event with U/W Miracles. Sorry Corbin, Merfolk didn't win, it got 3rd.
Merfolk did Top 8, though, as did Goblins, to the delight of old school Legacy players everywhere.
Wait, two High Tide decks? That's more High Tide in the Top 8 than in most Legacy Top 64s. I can dig it. High Tide may be difficult to wield, but at least it's annoying as balls to play against.
Worth mentioning is the RUG Grove deck in the Top 16 piloted by Marcus Kozminski. RUG is good; Punishing Grove is good. Those two things in the same 75 seems good. I wish he'd done better, but this may catch on, which I think is exciting.
The front page says Joe Bass played U/W/R Miracleblade. What is going on with this coverage? I guess they're saying it's U/W/R with the R standing for "a few Pyroblasts in the board". No Spinal Villain? Have you guys read that card?
Miracles are good though, and they'll continue to plague Legacy. While all Legacy players could see at first was "OMG Time Walk!", eventually they calmed down and realized Terminus and [card Entreat the Angels]Entreat[/card] were much better bargains and impacted the game more. Expect this list to continue to develop.
Where are the Sneak Attacks and Show and Tells? Where are the Academy Rectors? Interesting meta they have in Texas, although I suspect this is more indicative of the way Legacy as a whole is shifting. I wouldn't expect Sneak and Show to maintain their bloated price tags, although Legacy prices rarely drop. Bubbles don't burst in old formats, they just remain high and unjustified.
That's All, Folks
Don't be a sourpuss. Magic is supposed to be fun. Next time you find yourself hating some aspect of it, head to the saccharine dunk tank that is the Magic subreddit. It's like spending a week as the Kindergarten Cop. I defy you to have a bad time after seeing a pile of grown men high fiving each other over a picture of Ral Zarek.
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If you havenāt already noticed, I absolutely love the thrill of MTG speculation. The rules of economics have always been a hobby of mine. And while actively trading on the stock market can be fun and rewarding, I simply do not get the same level of enjoyment out of owning digital representations of shares of a company as I do physical trading cards.
The lucrative aspect of the hobby is also appealing. I can seed my competitive decks while remaining active and relevant in the MTG community, often without setting foot outside my apartment (besides walking to the post office).
But even though Iāve been doing this for a couple years, I still donāt feel my āMTG fundsā are as high as they could be. Iām making solid profit on most of my speculative plays, so where is all my money going?
Recently, much of my profits have been getting reinvested into additional speculation targets, but Iām starting to have trouble keeping up. Especially with the activity in the QS Forums, Iāve felt some unwanted strain in trying to dabble in all the viable speculation targets discussed.
Just this past week or two weāve seen talk of Vengevine, Bloodghast, Zendikar Fetch Lands, Might of Old Krosa, Goblin Electromancer, Sphinxs Revelation, Rakdos' Return, Thundermaw Hellkite, Sigarda, Host of Herons (chart from blacklotusproject.com) and even more.
I simply do not have the excess funds (nor the guts) to go deep in all of these cards. To do so would risk the majority of my āMTG fundsā and lock me out of future opportunities which may have even more upside.
So how do I proceed? This week I will discuss how I weigh whether or not to buy into a speculative card and how deep I should go. While my approach may not be a one-size-fits-all, hopefully those of you with limited funds and time will find these guidelines useful in some capacity.
The News Hits
Itās happened many times already. I take a quick peek at the Quiet Speculation Forums or my Twitter feed and I see discussion on a new card. Most recently it was Vengevine (chart from blacklotusproject.com).
Seems like a practical choice ā the card used to be a $30 Mythic in Standard, it was the third set of its block, and it has started making a splash in Modern. But after reading discussions on the forums I see that the early buyers were grabbing this card at $9 and now the cheapest copy online is $12. Is this still a buy?
Factors to Consider
Before pulling the trigger, I do some quick and dirty research. First, I see what the cheapest copies are selling for on eBay, Card Shark and Amazon. If I find any cards still priced low I do pull the trigger on those right away. Itās no surprise that most of the time this isnāt the case.
So I look at the average selling price and see that indeed $12 is the cardās value at this instant. My next step is to head over to StarCityGames.com and check a) what they are selling at, b) what they are buying at, and c) how many they have in stock. All three data points indicate a different piece of information you should weigh before buying into a spec.
The selling price tells you what you can hope to trade the card away at should you be unable to sell for profit. Cash is always king, but sometimes getting an inflated retail value on an overhyped card can also be profitable if the right trades are made. Currently the sell price on SCG is $17.99 for NM copies ā a solid 50% premium above average sell prices at auction.
The buy-price is your safety net, but only to a degree. In general, I try to buy any cards I find online that are at or below SCGās buy price, but even this can be a fallacy. Star City Games has way more selling outlets than I do and they can afford to overpay on some cards. Even though the buy price is subject to change, I use it as a general rule of thumb for what my downside risk is for this speculation. Currently the SCG buy price is $8, indicating a 33% risk should I purchase Vengevines at $12.
The number of copies in stock is the wild card ā it often tips the decision for me in one direction or another. Since Star City Games always has their fingers on the pulse of the market, they are quick to modify their available quantities to reflect demand. If there are many in stock, chances are they have excess copies they are happy to unload.
If SCGās website is out of stock, it means they are likely waiting to see where the price settles at, and a price change is more likely. For Vengevine, SCG currently has 16 non-foil copies in stock. Not a huge number, and the fact that the quantity is a multiple of 4 indicates to me they may be rationing copies out by playsets. There is no doubt in my mind that they are watching this card closely.
Exit Strategy
Vengevine is a hot card right now, many speculators are buying in. But I missed the price bottom, is there still room to grow? I could always trade them at $18 if I canāt sell for profit, but what if SCG adds more to their stock? Perhaps that $8 buy price isnāt too low after allā¦
These thoughts all run through my mind as I try to decide if I want to buy and how many copies I should acquire. But before pulling the trigger, there is one other part of the strategy I should consider: the exit strategy. How do I plan on unloading these cards?
The best scenario is when the card increases so much in price that I could sell to buy lists for easy profit ā even if I had 50 copies. You may be able to get more, but working directly with a retailer, especially at a premier event, can net you easy cash with minimal effort. The best kind of profits are the profits you had to work very little to acquire.
Most often, I sell my cards online via MOTL, eBay, or other MTG listing site. This approach enables me to get the most for my cards albeit with some investment of effort. For more expensive plays, this can often be the favored route.
If I buy 50 copies of Might of Old Krosa (chart from blacklotusproject.com) at $0.50 each and I sell them on eBay for $4/set, it may look like Iāve doubled up on the investment. But with fees and shipping costs Iād be lucky to break even. Simply put, not many people will want to buy all 50 copies at $1 each. Retailers will, however, and even if you only get $3/set selling to a buy list, you may net larger profits.
Going back to the Vengevine example, I need to realize that a buy list bump is not likely in the near term, and even if it did happen the next logical buy price would be $10. This is still not profitable. That means weāre either hoping for a significant jump in price or we plan on selling to other players / trading them away. This means more effort and more risk.
The Decision
Ultimately, the decision is yours. If you feel Vengevine is destined to return to its former glory and reach $30 again, then you would of course buy heavily. My conclusion was that I think the card could have legs but thereās not a ton of near-term profit to be had. As a result, I purchased a few copies at $11 each and Iāve put a hold for now. I figure I can sell them on eBay and at least make my money back if not earn a 10% profit.
Itās all about opportunity cost. My funds are limited and I canāt chase every card that may have legs. To help me decide, I move motion aside and weigh costs/risks as best as I can. This objective approach often (but not always) prevents me from making foolhardy investments simply because of an emotional reaction.
And even after all of this analysis, the card still has to perform to make you money. This is often the unknown part and yet the most crucial. When I ran through this analysis on Nivmagus Elemental I realized there was a chance for major profit. I acquired 25 copies at around $1.25 each knowing that the card could hit $2 or even $3 on retailer buy lists. All I needed was for the card to perform well at the Pro Tourā¦ which just didnāt happen.
ā¦
Sigbits ā Booster Box Edition
A while back I wrote an article about how sealed booster boxes could be a solid, safe investment. Today I want to revisit some of the calls I made in the April 2012 article and compare them against recent completed eBay auctions.
Unhinged: In my article I discussed how purchasing two boxes of Unhinged at $144 had paid off since boxes had just cracked $200 on eBay. Looking at eBay auctions completing now, I see that the price has risen even further. They have approached and in a rare instance even broke the $300 barrier. The ride isnāt over yet.
Coldsnap: I talked about purchasing a booster box of Coldsnap due to being Modern legal and being underprinted. The average price I paid was around $110. Recent completed listings have been in the $150 range. I donāt expect to see a whole lot of Coldsnap in Modern Masters, and boxes of this mostly casual set may slowly increase. Upside from here may be limited though.
Ā Time Spiral: In the article I cite that I was happy to purchase an English Booster Box of Time Spiral for $160. Looking at recent completed listings on eBay, I see that the price on English Time Spiral boxes range from $200 - $240.
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A solid $50 increase, this investment has also paid out fairly well. The casual appeal of the set combined with a few Modern/Legacy playable cards should help keep this setās sealed product pricing stable. Without a major catalyst, however, Iām fairly confident there could be a set with higher upside potential right now (Avacyn Restored, New Phyrexia).
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For this week's column, I felt it would be appropriate to check in on my Modern tradebook. The Modern PTQ Season officially begins in January, but with the recent Pro Tour Return to Ravnica kicking things off and a few Modern GPs approaching, it's not unrealistic to expect interest in Modern to ramp up over the coming weeks. The book is largely established at this point, with only a few other potential moves to make depending on how prices fluctuate over the coming weeks.
Real Estate
If you are a regular reader of this column, it should come as no surprise that Gatecrash shocklands make up a significant portion of my Modern tradebook. Charts are courtesy of mtggoldfish.com, which takes pricing data from Supernovabots.com. All other prices are taken from MTGOtraders.com and are current as of November 8th, 2012.
Breeding Pool (15.80 tix): 22 copies bought for an average ofĀ 9.72 tix in September. Ravnica-Guildpact-Dissension (RGD) made a cameo appearance in the draft queues in early September and prices on all RGD cards fell as a result. This was a great time to pick up shocklands of all types. Breeding Pool is most prominently appearing in the BUG Infect lists which should appeal to players on a budget. It's also quite the ruthless deck and will punish slow or unfocused builds. This one is looking good for a solid profit.
Godless Shrine (9.55 tix): Bought 38 copies at an average of 5.73 tix in September. In this article I made a guarantee on this card for people who were looking to try their hand at speculating on MTGO. If anyone wants to get out of their position on this card right now, I am willing to honor the guarantee today and pay 6 tix per copy ;-).
Grove of the Burnwillows (8.74 tix): Bought 18 copies at an average of 9.58 tix, with most copies purchased during October. This position is currently underwater but more so due to the poor timing of purchase than for any fundamental reason. Speculating on lightly printed sets like Future Sight is one of my favorite angles and I still expect this position to be profitable.
Stomping Ground (11.59 tix): Bought 37 copies at an average price of 6.11 tix in September, and sold all of them at an average price of 13.5 tix in the weeks after the unbanning of Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle. Although it was a bit of luck catching an unbanning that affected the price of this card, half of the purchases were made in the 24 hours after the B/R announcement. Total profit: 273.67 tix, ROI: 121%.
Man Lands
Although not as ubiquitous as fetch- and shocklands, various archetypes make use of utility lands that regularly fluctuate in price.
Creeping Tar Pit (2.80 tix): Most of my purchases on this card were made back in early Summer, although I did pick up 18 copies last week at an average price of 0.86 tix. Its appearance in the Top 8 of GP Lyon is the big reason this one is already in the money. Selling and taking profits today is not incorrect but holding for PTQ season is also fine.
Inkmoth Nexus (2.96 tix): Bought 50 copies at an average price of 1.75 tix in October. This was a Scars block rotation pick up and it appears in both Affinity and Infect decks. If this reaches 4.5 tix, selling would not be incorrect, though I am fine with holding this Modern staple beyond the upcoming season. The potential in-season price peak on this card is not yet clear as this card has just rotated out of Standard.
Staples
Once you've got your fill of real estate (the backbone of any portfolio), looking towards format staples for potential investments is a good idea. The best staples come from the smaller print run sets and are not easily replaceable. Avoid current Standard cards as the prices on these will fluctuate too much to be of much use in speculating on Modern.
Tarmogoyf (53.22 tix): Bought 19 copies at an average of 50.32 tix in the last week. After dropping by 20+ tix in the last month, the price on this card has possibly found it's footing. If it drops into the 40-45 tix range, I'll start buying again. Alternatively, if it bumps up in price into the 55-57 tix range, this would indicate to me that demand for this card has rebounded and that in-season prices are not far away.
Vendilion Clique (23.75 tix): Bought 18 copies at an average of 22.62 tix in the last week. Similar to Tarmogoyf, this card also saw a recent slide coinciding with the announcement of Modern Masters and RtR release events. It looks like the slide has stopped and at the current price it's still a buy.
Karn Liberated (14.40 tix): Bought 40 copies at an average of 13.1 tix in the past month. In addition to the analysis offered on this card last week, this card has shown over time to have a firm floor of 12-13 tix. As of today, it looks like the prices on the Scars block sets have bottomed so prices on Scars block mythic rares should creep up over time as redemption eats up available supply. This further supports the price of Scars block mythics such as Karn.
Cryptic Command (12.05 tix): Bought 15 copies at an average of 8.10 tix. Similar to Creeping Tar Pit, the results of GP Lyon reminded players that Modern is not all Jund, all the time. At it's current price buying more feels a little risky, especially keeping in mind last year's in-season price peak of around 15 tix. Note that the mtggoldfish charts are produced using data from the Supernova bots price list. Occasionally there are gaps in the data when the bots are out of stock and the charts start using buy prices instead of sell prices. This is why last year's in-season price peak of 15 tix does not appear on the chart; the price peak occurred while Supernova was out of stock.
Gifts Ungiven (5.89 tix): Bought 15 copies at an average of 5.03 tix. This one is still a buy as it remains somewhat under the radar.
This look into my Modern tradebook should give you confidence that speculating on MTGO can be profitable. Most of these positions are low risk because they take advantage of the underlying structure of the MTGO economy and the seasonal nature of the Modern Constructed format. What is not needed is special knowledge of the Modern format.
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Mike, Forrest and Ryan get together to answer pressing questions. Which cards can safely be unbanned in Modern? How many boomerangs are in a didgeridoo? Do wizards take credit cards? What time does the gas station close? Is Lady Gaga hot? What week is it? Discover the answers to all of these pressing questions and hear about A+ card Slaughter Games on this week's episode!
(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)
Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language
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Quick question. How much is Parallel Lives worth? How about Adaptive Automaton? Asceticism?
Chances are, the prices might surprise you. But they shouldnāt. As any trader worth their salt knows, these cards are all $2 or above, even though you frequently get them in bulk rare piles or find them in collections, or even as leftovers at the draft tables. And you do want to earn your salt, right?
The āCasual Hitsā series is one I like to revisit from time to time because sometimes knowing what to target for those āthrow-insā to complete a trade can pay off big time. While itās nice to pick up the above cards as throw-ins so you can later sell them off for a buck or two to a dealer, thereās even more opportunity than this.
You should definitely not be scared to hoard these cards to sell to dealers later (along with all the Darksteel Plates you can find), but I find the most profitable reason to pick these cards up is at the trading tables. Now, while youāre at a big event like an SCG Open or a Grand Prix, youāre likely to be trading with tournament players who arenāt interested in your Primordial Hydra ($4), I think itās safe to say many of my readers do more than that.
As with anything, the saying āeverything is localā rings true with trading. The PTQ grinders donāt want these cards, but they will trade like crazy back at FNM. Cards like this are easy, in my experience, to make money āon both the ins and the outs.ā
What this means is that when trading for something like a Primordial Hydra at a big event, youāre likely to get it for a dollar or so in trade from a tournament player who writes it off, netting you some value āon the ins.ā On the flip side, when you take that card home and find the EDH player who wants one to fill out a deck, youāre likely to end up getting a $5-7 card for it without much work. Not a bad deal for whatās likely to be filler in a larger trade, especially when you consider how fast this sort of thing adds up.
Of course a major lesson here is understanding that you have to be able to appeal to many different interest groups, from the hardcore grinders to the kitchen-table wizards. This means developing relationships with as many people and/or groups as possible to increase the amount of outs you have for any given card.
With all of that in mind, letās take to M13 and Return to Ravnica to see if we canāt find some good trade bait or a few legitimate medium-to-long-term sleepers.
Akromas Memorial
This crazy-powerful artifact used to command a much more hefty pricetag than the $3.50 SCG sells them for now. M13 had a lot of casual reprints that dinged the value of the originals, but it also means thereās some more on the market to stock up for the future. For this and other EDH cards, foils are especially good as pickups, and are likewise more likely to be undervalued on the trade floor.
Jace, Memory Adept
Another card whose price was on the way up before the reprint. Players are in love with milling, so the Glimpse the Unthinkable part of Jace is going to keep him popular for years to come. That said, thereās no telling how much theyāll reprint him in the core sets to come.
Primordial Hydra
As I touched on above, this guy is insane in those Mono-Green big mana decks that everyone loves to play. $4 now, though youāll likely pick these up much cheaper than that.
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
This guy seems criminally underpriced to me at $5. There was a day not that long ago when the Conflux version of this easily fetched $20. I donāt think those days are coming back any time soon, but heās also going to have a hard time going lower than this.
Gilded Lotus
Another card I really like the foil play on, since it goes into many Cubes and just about every EDH deck ever that wants mana.
Reliquary Tower
Another big EDH card that took a huge dive with M13. Itās going to take a little while for it to climb back up in price, but I suspect it will at some point, and you could scoop these up off draft tables just a few months ago. These days, youāll probably be able to get them as free throw-ins in trades.
Chromatic Lantern
Now that weāre getting into the Ravnica stuff, I want to say that prices on these arenāt bottomed-out yet. So Iām not suggesting pay āfull retailā on these in trades, but be on the lookout for these if the deal is right.
As for Lantern, not only is it fringe-Constructed playable, itās mostly certainly a winner in EDH, providing another ācheapā way for people to mana-fix and providing a boost in mana along the way.
Collective Blessing
This still hasnāt taken off like I thought it might in Standard, but Anthem effects are always popular casually and this should trade well to that crowd. Iām not suggesting going super-deep on these, but again, itās hard to lose if youāre just filling out a trade with one or two of these.
Pack Rat
People play Relentless Rats decks. It happens. While this doesnāt necessarily fit into that mold, this is essentially a do-it-yourself Rats and slots into Rat EDH decks. While this is a small niche, itās something that will trade when you find the person who wants it. Not to mention that this stupid thing wrecks just about any Limited game itās played in.
Slaughter Games
This card is better than you gave it credit for, I promise. One of the major reasons against bringing cards like this in from the sideboard is that the decks you want to resolve it against will usually just counter it and then win while youāre tapped out.
Not a problem any longer. This card already pops up in Standard (where itās very good), to Modern (where itās insane in the matchups you want it), and I expect it to start showing up in some Legacy sideboards too. Seems good for $1.50. Donāt expect too much, since sideboard cards rarely see huge spikes, but I donāt think itās going to stay under $2 forever.
Keyrunes
Okay, so youāre never going to score huge with these. I get that. But once these stop being opened supply will diminish, and there will still be some people who need them. These could easily be the Tezzerets Gambit of the set, and Gambit hit buylist prices of up to a dollar last year.
Thatās everything that caught my eye as I perused the spoiler for this article. This type of analysis leads me to picking better āthrow-insā when Iām trading, and Iāve made a not-insignificant amount of money over the last few years by stocking up on some stuff like this.
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If you have been reading this column for a while, you already know my love for rogue decks. There is a lot of potential gain to be made from bringing a rogue deck to a large tournament. With players utilizing online resources so much these days, they rely heavily on data about existing matchups in their preparation. The same goes for testing. Players are going to prepare and test games against the biggest decks in the format. While Standard is a brewers' paradise most of the time, it is becoming harder and harder for rogue decks to be successful due to the high power level of the new cards that continue to see print.
I donāt just love any rogue deck though. They have to be solid choices for competitive play. When you are working on a rogue deck, donāt forget to take the format's major players into consideration. The point of rogue decks in competitive play is not only to win games due to your opponentsā lack of understanding of your cards but also to position yourself to beat the existing tier one decks.
Today, I want to take a look at some successful decks that you may not have heard of. All of these decks have done well at relatively large events, proving to be successful. Take a look at the Top 8 Standard Hidden Gems.
8. R/G Aggro
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Arbor Elf
2 Champion of Lambholt
2 Flinthoof Boar
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Pyreheart Wolf
4 Strangleroot Geist
1 Thragtusk
2 Wolfir Avenger
2 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Zealous Conscripts
Spells
2 Garruk Relentless
4 Brimstone Volley
2 Mizzium Mortars
4 Rancor
Lands
11 Forest
2 Kessig Wolf Run
7 Mountain
4 Rootbound Crag
Sideboard
1 Bonfire of the Damned
2 Flames of the Firebrand
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
2 Ground Seal
2 Mizzium Mortars
2 Pillar of Flame
2 Thragtusk
1 Thundermaw Hellkite
1 Zealous Conscripts
7. R/G Aggro
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Arbor Elf
4 Avacyns Pilgrim
3 Borderland Ranger
1 Druids Familiar
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Thragtusk
2 Zealous Conscripts
Spells
2 Garruk Relentless
4 Bonfire of the Damned
4 Pillar of Flame
Lands
10 Forest
4 Kessig Wolf Run
6 Mountain
4 Rootbound Crag
Sideboard
2 Brimstone Volley
1 Daybreak Ranger
2 Devils Play
2 Revenge of the Hunted
2 Sundering Growth
2 Thundermaw Hellkite
3 Triumph of Ferocity
1 Zealous Conscripts
Number seven and eight are two different takes on R/G Aggro. Both of these aggressive decks aim to be able to beat their opponent even after they cast a Thragtusk. Each of these decks has their own way to fight through whatever their opponent is doing.
With less Pillar of Flames in the format, it might be time to update this deck. Cards like Pyreheart Wolf and Wolfir Silverheart seem well positioned in the metagame. I would like to see more Hellriders and Thundermaw Hellkites in this style of deck to further abuse the mana accelerants.
One definite perk of playing a red and green deck right now is the addition of Kessig Wolf Run. We have not heard much about this card since the format rotated, but it still makes all of your creatures into threats. This land is exactly what a midrange deck is looking for in order to punch through the last bit of damage.
6. Curses!
Untitled Deck
Creatures
3 Olivia Voldaren
Spells
4 Annihilating Fire
3 Barter in Blood
1 Curse of Bloodletting
1 Curse of Deaths Hold
4 Curse of Misfortunes
1 Curse of Thirst
4 Dreadbore
4 Mizzium Mortars
4 Pillar of Flame
3 Sever the Bloodline
3 Tribute to Hunger
Lands
4 Blood Crypt
4 Dragonskull Summit
7 Mountain
2 Stensia Bloodhall
8 Swamp
Sideboard
4 Desecration Demon
3 Manor Gargoyle
4 Slaughter Games
4 Vampire Nighthawk
Whatās that? Thatās right, seven main deck curses! Talk about a win condition. You only need cast Curse of Misfortunes and then play your normal game of killing everything while your curse finds more curses. Because you are only playing red and black, there is room for a lot of amazing removal spells.
Normally this type of deck has a terrible time beating opposing planeswalkers, but with Dreadbore that is no longer the case. Barter in Blood along with Mizzium Mortars do a decent Day of Judgment impersonation and the other removal spells mop up the rest. You even have the vastly overcosted Stensia Bloodhall for when you face another control deck.
This deck is not for everyone, but donāt underestimate the power of the curses just because you have never heard them mentioned as viable Constructed cards. They are a realistic win condition that's hard to deal with in the current metagame. You also have Olivia Voldaren to steal all the Thragtusks and Angel of Serenitys. You gain some virtual card advantage as well because removal spells from your opponents are blanks most of the time.
5. U/R Delver
Untitled Deck
Creatures
2 Augur of Bolas
4 Delver of Secrets
1 Dungeon Geists
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Thundermaw Hellkite
Spells
3 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Cyclonic Rift
1 Desperate Ravings
2 Dissipate
1 Mizzium Mortars
4 Pillar of Flame
2 Runechanters Pike
2 Searing Spear
2 Think Twice
4 Thought Scour
1 Unsummon
Lands
1 Desolate Lighthouse
8 Island
1 Izzet Guildgate
5 Mountain
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
Sideboard
1 Annihilating Fire
1 Augur of Bolas
1 Cavern of Souls
3 Clone
1 Devils Play
2 Dispel
1 Dissipate
1 Mizzium Mortars
2 Negate
1 Redirect
1 Smelt
This deck looks pretty similar to the UWR Midrange deck many players are picking up but there are some major differences. This list still plays Delver of Secrets as an early drop. It's certainly not as good as it was before, but if it flips on turn two or three your opponent is in for a quick game.
There was an alternate version floating around somewhere that played Goblin Electromancer to cast powerful spells like Talrand's Invocation a turn early. That type of strategy could be viable in this style deck as well. The Dungeon Geists also seems great to me right now because it is a removal spell that actually deals with almost any creature in Standard. Many decks have no way to remove it either.
4. U/W Midrange
Untitled Deck
Creatures
4 Augur of Bolas
4 Restoration Angel
4 Snapcaster Mage
Spells
4 Azorius Charm
2 Dissipate
2 Essence Scatter
1 Rewind
1 Sphinxs Revelation
2 Syncopate
3 Think Twice
4 Thought Scour
4 Unsummon
2 Runechanters Pike
Lands
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Hallowed Fountain
2 Moorland Haunt
9 Island
4 Plains
Sideboard
3 Detention Sphere
1 Erase
2 Faiths Shield
1 Negate
2 Purify the Grave
1 Rewind
3 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Supreme Verdict
This is one of the decks you may have seen already. Star City grinder Adam Prosak used this list to Top 8 the latest Star City Open in St. Louis. Removing the red mana from the UWR Midrange deck allowed Adam to play more counters and card draw, in addition to making the mana base more stable. Considering how quickly he fills his graveyard, Runechanter's Pike becomes a viable win condition and not just a couple extra damage. In many games, Pike dealt the final blow to unsuspecting opponents.
Iām not sure I agree with cutting Geist of Saint Traft, but this deck is more like a control deck that also happens to play a powerful equipment. Since he is less focused on beating his opponent quickly, that makes no Geists more appealing. He did include them in the sideboard to kill opposing Geists and also against other control decks.
3. Seance
Untitled Deck
Creatures
3 Angel of Serenity
4 Armada Wurm
3 Centaur Healer
1 Disciple of Bolas
3 Lotleth Troll
4 Thragtusk
3 Trostani, Selesnyas Voice
Spells
4 Farseek
4 Grisly Salvage
4 Mulch
4 Seance
3 Unburial Rites
Lands
3 Forest
2 Isolated Chapel
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
4 Woodland Cemetery
Sideboard
1 Craterhoof Behemoth
1 Disciple of Bolas
3 Garruk, Primal Hunter
1 Griselbrand
2 Loxodon Smiter
4 Nevermore
2 Rhox Faithmender
1 Tree of Redemption
The ability to do anything repeatedly is powerful, and Seance fits the bill. Remember, not only do you get to bring something back on your turn, you also get to use that effect on your opponent's turn. Grisly Salvage and Mulch combined with Lotleth Troll as a discard outlet allow you to fill your graveyard quickly and take advantage of the reanimation each turn. Once you have Trostani, Selesnya's Voice in play, you can make a copy of your token which stays in play. That interaction is one of the best reasons to be playing this deck. Free Thragtusk in addition to the 3/3 and the five life you gained from the Seance token! Sign me up!
2. RUG Deadeye
Untitled Deck
Creatures
3 Acidic Slime
2 Borderland Ranger
4 Deadeye Navigator
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Restoration Angel
4 Thragtusk
Spells
4 Farseek
3 Izzet Charm
4 Pillar of Flame
Lands
3 Forest
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Hallowed Fountain
4 Hinterland Harbor
1 Island
2 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Sunpetal Grove
1 Temple Garden
Sideboard
3 Centaur Healer
2 Clone
1 Cyclonic Rift
4 Negate
3 Rest in Peace
2 Zealous Conscripts
Now we are getting into some really fun decks. What do all these creatures have in common? They all have sweet enters the battlefield abilities! What better to do with that than blink them and reuse the abilities over and over again. Have you ever had your opponent blow up a land with Acidic Slime, then blink it or simply play another one? Itās devastating. This midrange deck goes very light in the early game with ways to interact with your opponent, instead focusing on destroying players with virtual card advantage. Both Restoration Angel and Deadeye Navigator allow you to reuse the abilities of all the rest of your creatures.
1. RUG Combo
Untitled Deck
Creatures
2 Deadeye Navigator
3 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Izzet Staticaster
3 Nightshade Peddler
2 Snapcaster Mage
2 Zealous Conscripts
1 Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius
Spells
2 Dissipate
3 Forbidden Alchemy
2 Izzet Charm
2 Syncopate
2 Gilded Lotus
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
3 Farseek
2 Mizzium Mortars
1 Pillar of Flame
Lands
1 Blood Crypt
4 Hinterland Harbor
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
3 Forest
1 Island
1 Mountain
Sideboard
1 Clone
2 Deathrite Shaman
3 Thragtusk
2 Thundermaw Hellkite
2 Negate
3 Pillar of Flame
2 Slaughter Games
Though this deck is similar to the last one, you can see about half the deck is different. There are two important combos in this deck that make it so good.
The first is the reimagining of Basilisk Collar plus Cunning Sparkmage with newcomers Izzet Staticaster and Nightshade Peddler. Neither of these cards are good on their own, but together you can build your own Visara, the Dreadful. Izzet Staticaster not being able to hit players is a definite drawback but having flash makes up for it a little bit. It does have a Maelstrom Pulse type effect also which is nice if your opponent plays multiple mana accelerants or casts Lingering Souls, so donāt forget it hits all creatures with the same name.
The other combo is harder to pull off. If you combine Deadeye Navigator, Zealous Conscripts, and Gilded Lotus you have infinite mana. Hereās how it works:
Use the mana from Gilded Lotus to activate Deadeyeās ability and blink Zealous Conscripts.
Use Zealous Conscripts's trigger to untap Gilded Lotus, netting you a mana.
By alternating the mana you choose to produce with Gilded Lotus, you can produce infinte mana of any color.
You can then use that mana to blink Zealous Conscripts some more and steal all your opponents permenants. If you happen to have a Huntmaster of the Fells, you can also blink it over and over to gain infinite life and infinite 2/2 wolf tokens. In case you donāt have Huntmaster, you can always blink your Snapcaster Mage to reuse a bunch of cards in your graveyard.
Overall, this deck seems like a ton of fun. There are some powerful cards coupled with some combos that you can assemble. The numbers on some of the cards seems a bit off but maybe thatās only because I have never played the deck.
All of these decks seem comptitive and enjoyable to play. If you think one of them suits your play style, give it a shot.
Until Next Time,
Unleash the Rogue Force!
Mike Lanigan MtgJedi on Twitter
(I'm active on twitter again, so send me a message sometime.)
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com
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If you missed the memo, all of the articles, the press conference and the staggering amount of data supporting the fact, then somebody should tell you that Standard is very, very open right now. While this is in many respects a very good and interesting thing for Standard, it does imply that seeing consistent success will require a bit more work than more closed formats. When youāre not exactly sure what youāll play against in a given tournament, then it becomes important to constantly tune your deck to be able to beat the widest range of opposing decks.
With such a wide range of viable decks itās very likely that youāll like at least one of them. And thatās an important starting point- if youāre playing a deck that you enjoy playing, then youāll be more passionate about tuning it. A lot of players recommend starting with the stock list and making changes after you get a few matches in, but I usually make some changes before I start battling. If I see a deck that I will like playing, I don't hesitate to cut a card that I donāt think is good. When doing so it is important to keep the card in mind during testing just to make sure that cutting it wasnāt a mistake, but more on that later.
I find that I see the most success with a variation of a popular deck rather than a straight brew of my own. This is partly because discovering undiscovered strategies isnāt one of my strong suits, but I also think that there is a good amount of advantage to playing something slightly different from something that people are used to. By playing an established archetype you will cause your opponent to make some basic assumptions about what your deck does- most generally players will assume you are close to the stock list. You can usually gain a lot of advantage by exploiting such assumptions. How many players do you think were ready for Crippling Blight out of Zombies in week one of this format? How many people played with it in mind? The card isnāt unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination, but itās a lot tougher to beat when your opponent doesnāt see it coming, and tougher still when they were expecting something else.
Step Two: Battle!
When a format is small itās pretty good practice to grab a deck and a friend and hash out how particular matchups play out. This is still fine practice in a very open format, as youāll become more familiar with your own deck, but youāll learn less about the format at large. Itās quite a lot of work to put together all of the potential Standard decks and more work still to find somebody to pilot them well. Itās a lot easier to just run a deck through two-mans on MTGO. Sadly this is a rather expensive practice, but Iām not going to pretend like I donāt believe it to be the best practice. Youāll generally play against people playing what they want to play and playing it with something (money) on the line. Itās very close to actual tournament Magic, outside of the obvious differences between live Magic and MTGO.
Personally I like to maintain a spreadsheet of my win/loss record against various decks as I battle, but this is hardly necessary. Itās more important to keep track of how many outs you had in games that you lost, how individual cards in your deck are performing and which cards/strategies from your opponents are causing you the most problems.
Step Three: Adapt
Sometimes I wish that I kept track of each individual change that I made to a deck as I edited them. But for the most part I think that such a document would be longer than it would be useful. I guess what Iām trying to say is that I make A LOT of minor edits to my decks as I battle with them. While making such changes I try to keep the following principles in mind:
No Sacred Cows
A lot of playerās have tendencies to adopt certain pet cards that they refuse to not play. This results in a lot of suboptimal decklists. No matter how much you like a card nothing should ever be uncuttable. Unless Iām really slacking off, I donāt include cards in my deck without having a very good answer to the question, āWhy are you playing that?ā There is no worse answer to this question then shrugging and asking, āWhy not?ā Reasons not to do anything only matter when sufficient reasons to do that thing have been presented.
Keep track of how all of the cards in your deck are performing and if theyāre not doing their job, cut them or add something that you believe will sufficiently supplement your desired ends.
Maintain a List of Potential Cards Youāre Not Playing
While playtesting I like to think about which cards Iām not playing would be good in every situation that I encounter. If I find myself wishing that I had a specific card frequently then I make room for that card in my deck. Seeing as I tend to make changes to stock lists from the get-go, my list of potentials always starts with whatever cards the stock lists are playing that I am not and just sort of grows from there as I think more about the deck.
Avoid Labels
I see a lot of meaningless discourse occur in the discussion of particular decks. For whatever reason labels like āaggro-controlā and āmidrangeā are thrown around all the time. Theyāre not entirely useless terms, but they are too general to really offer very much information. If Iām seriously discussing a deck with somebody I definitely donāt waste time with these labels. If I were talking about my Bant list from last week's article, I wouldnāt just say that itās a mirangey control deck if I wanted to tell somebody about the deck. I would take the time to explain that itās a deck that exploits Thragtusk and Sphinx's Revelation to grind out the long game.
Not only does this tell other people more about my deck, but it also gets me thinking more about the deck myself. If my lens is āthis is a midrange deckā then Iāll look to adapt it in ways to conform to being midrangeā¦ whatever that even means. Once I identify it as a Sphinx's Revelation deck I start asking what it means to be a Revelation deck and how I can build the best version of such a deck.
Specialized vocabulary is useful in terms of relaying information quickly, but a more general knowledge of concepts is infinitely more valuable than knowing what the cool kids are calling something.
Step Four: Keep Adapting
Metagames never stop shifting, and for this reason a deck tunerās work is never done. Let go of any delusions of finished products. Everything is a work in progress. Itās true that you can win tomorrowās tournament with yesterdayās technology, but that route absolutely has worse odds than putting in the work to keep an up to date list.
Donāt Forget to Have Fun!
I firmly believe that this is the best Standard format that I have ever played. I donāt see eye to eye with players that claim that Thragtusk is a plague, but rather I see it as just another very good card in a sea of very good cards. No matter what you like playing there is a deck for you in Standard. Find it. Embrace it. Enjoy it.
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After writing my last article, I have been discussing the topic with my Psychology teacher and she was very interested in the subject. I have picked her brain on it and I appreciate the time she is glad to spend discussing topics like these.
PTQs And The Live Trading Floor
I have been trading a lot during the PTQ's and GPT's here in Ireland which connects me with many players from far away since the PTQ was at the other side of the country. I finished 14th (4-2) getting my losses early in the PTQ. In the mean time, I hit the trading floor as well. I managed to sell my Time Spiral Boosters, obtained from a Gift Box I bought in Estonia, for a decent margin.
Recently I have been noticing that shock duals are still a fast moving item among traders here, and their price memory is way above the real value. I also noticed that the use of smartphones is at an all time low here, making it possible for me to utilize my price knowledge edge, especially when wanting to trade away RtR cards for Modern and Commander cards.
For instance, the blue Zendikar fetchlands have recently doubled in price across all European markets. Even MagicCardMarket raised their prices to 19/20 respectively for an English, NM Scalding Tarn or Misty Rainforest. Some months ago when it was off-season I hope everyone picked these up for 50-60% of their current prices.
Cognitive Dissonance
I made a trade with a fellow EDH player who is an exchange student here in Ireland. He spices up the EDH games a lot as several decks in our small group keep each other in check. He got his binders from his parents and he wanted to initiate a trade with me after the Commander games. After pulling some cards we were using price memories more than pinpoint ratings. We agreed on rating his Tamiyo at 15. He picked some EDH cards from my binder and we tried to work out the prices. In the end we made the trade, both expecting it was more or less equal value.Ā Now, I always evaluate my trades later on to double-check if the ratings I cited with my trading partner were accurate.
So in this case Tamiyo is now $27 on TCGplayer Mid average index. BlackLotusProject is currently down for me while writing this article so I have no information from there.
I have to note that I agreed on a rating of 15 for a single Tamiyo copy because I simply saw them priced this way before Return to Ravnica made them popular among Standard players. I wound up around $20 up in the end by doing this trade, but knowing he offered the trade, I made sure he was satisfied with it as I was seeking no profit from him, just exchanging cards that move relatively more easily than the cards he picked.
Some days later he sent me a private message on Facebook saying the following: āāJust noticed Tamiyo is actually like $27. Wanna cut me a deal next time we trade?āā. In 1957, Leon Festinger wrote the theory of cognitive dissonance in which he states that āa powerful motive to maintain cognitive consistency can give rise to irrational and sometimes maladaptive behaviorā.Ā Furthermore he argues that as soon as we experience an unpleasant dissonance, we are extremely motivated to reduce or eliminate it. Relating back to the trade, my trading partner found out that certain cards were actually higher than he thought, evoking a sense of dissatisfaction that led him to messaging me on Facebook.Ā We as traders mostly rely on repeat trade partners when at a local game store. We do not have infinite people to trade with. We can trade by post, having access to the international market but it comes with lag, a shipping cost burden and so on. You also tend to play against the same players in the local game store, you interact with them and with some you also playtest.
It is vital to have a healthy environment to trade in. I feel like a salesperson where I have to keep my trading partners satisfied that the cards they traded for from me are in good condition (near mint), are useful for them (not only trading for its own sake, or only trading for value), and also give them a feeling that they did not get sharked out. One way people try to guard themselves is by using smartphones when trading. This is far from ideal and I could devote a whole article to this particular topic. I am sure that other authors already have expressed their views on this phenomenon.
The reason I am writing about Cognitive Dissonance in relationship with Magic is that we as speculators can fill both roles. We are both the demand and the supply. We trade or sell cards for profit to other Magic players. We want them to be satisfied with the purchase as much as possible to prevent ourselves from hurting long-term profits as a result of dissatisfaction. This can be a full refund or simply an exchange of cards (additional shipping cost). We are also buying cards mainly from stores in relatively big quantities to acquire underappreciated cards. So we can experience something that creates dissonance. For example, in a big order I made with one of the smaller (and cheaper) UK stores, certain cards were stamped or not in near mint condition. I emailed the owner, citing the state of those cards and my reason for dissatisfaction. I did not even have to send the cards back to get a full refund, but one can see where I am going in terms of unnecessarily losing profits.
I am sure we are on the other side as well where, for example, I forgot to include a card in a relatively big trade. Aside from slightly damaging my reputation, I also had to pay extra for the shipping cost and devote time to make sure my trading partner didn't feel ripped off despite my many references.
I am not going to write about the possible solutions one can employ to deal with this kind of situation. I feel there is no "best way" as Frederick Winslow Taylor put it back in the days when he wanted to optimize industrial efficiency. I think that there are several best ways and through interaction we can be better aware of the situation. I am quite interested to hear your opinion, as this article is just one view on the matter.
Thanks for reading and as always, if there is anything you would like to discuss, please reply!
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So over the last couple weeks Iāve been waist deep in Return to Ravnica limited on MTGO. Iāve slowly been collecting more and more Nephalia Drownyards to add to my speculation portfolio, but I really want to find another target from Innistrad Block to pick up on. Iāve also started organizing old bulk stuff on my account and finding the best bots to dump it to. Iāve started compiling a list, and when it Iāve finished with it Iāll share it here. As previously noted, dealing with Bulk on MTGO is extremely time consuming, so once itās all finished, having the short-cut list of bots to deal with should be helpful.
PTQ Season
Weāre also in the midst of Limited PTQ season. Iāve already had my first PTQ on MTGO and my first paper PTQ will be just around the corner. Limited PTQās often bring more trading opportunities than one might expect. Given that PTQs are now held at store level, and this season is Limited, youāll be seeing a lot of fresh faces at your local PTQ, even if competing isnāt important to you. Often times there will be dealers available, but even if the store isnāt hosting other dealers, trading runs rampant between rounds and as people drop. What Iāve been hearing from others who have already started their local PTQ cycles, is that M13 and Innistrad cards are in demand and people are overly willing to trade away their RTR cards they obtained during sealed.
It is similar to what we experience during the Pre-Release but the cards values arenāt so inflated. This means rather than dumping RTR cards you can be unloading Innistrad and M13 cards for RTR staples now that the prices have stabilized a bit. Shocklands should be fairly easy to trade for, and thatās something that Iām happy to pick up. Further, you get to interact with new trade binders and meet new people. Also, remember that prizes are usually given out as packs. Often times the PTQ grinder types are looking to cash out these packs, and often thereās a decent opportunity there. Be respectful of store policy if they donāt allow transactions with cash in their store, but most players are happy getting a cash equivalent around $2.50 for their booster.
MTGO Specs
On the MTGO front, Iāve noticed even over this last week that RTR boosters are starting to fall in price. This could be because people are selling off prize packs for tickets which slowly brings down the value. This could either be from the MTGO PTQās giving out large prizes, or even from the constructed queues. This is my first season tracking the MTGO pricing closely, so itās hard for me to say for sure. Another thing Iām reminded of regularly drafting on MTGO, is while popular Rares are often significantly less expensive than they are in paper, even the junk Mythics tend to hold decent value because they are needed to complete sets. I have been keeping www.mtggoldfish.com handy while I draft to keep tabs on cards that might be worth more (or even less) than what I expect based on their paper value. This adjustment to my valuation has been very unintuitive for me and will take some time.
Given that this is the pattern, finding another Rare that sits around $0.25 like Nephalia Drownyard is important. I donāt want all of my eggs in one basket. While Drownyard could easily quadruple (or more) in value if it picks up more play, I think that could be said for many rares that sit just above bulk value. One card Iām considering, but havenāt pulled the trigger on yet is Undead Alchemist. Heās a good counter to the reanimator strategies in Standard, and heās a huge fan favorite.
Part of the reason Iām hesitant is that Iām worried my memory from paper pricing is clouding my judgement. Heās always remained above bulk value on buy lists because casual players love him. I fear the casual playerās impact on the MTGO side isnāt enough to make much of a difference. Based on only narrow sideboard usage in standard, I donāt think itās enough to warrant speculation on, but if any other Self-Mill strategy pops up, then there might be something to consider.
Iāve also been looking at Mirror-Mad Phantasm. Itās well under a dollar and a Mythic from a redeemable and popular set is always going to hold some value. It also sees play in some of these fringe Seance decks that have been popping up. If any of the Seance decks start popping up in the Daily Events on MTGO this card could skyrocket. If it doesnāt? Mirror mad wonāt move and you donāt stand to lose much. In either case, itās Mythic status will hold it afloat for people redeeming sets. I am going to try and keep my amount invested in Drownyard even with Mirror Mads. Not in quantity but in cost. So for every $5 I stash in Drownyards (which is about what I have now) Iāll buy 6-7 Mirror Mads.
Lastly, I am liking Stony Silence in paper. Itās a true bulk status around $0.10 and itās a great answer for Second Sunrise decks. The problem is, Second Sunrise decks might see bannings, and there isnāt really an opportunity on MTGO because the deck doesnāt operate well under the chess-clock style time constraint present online. I don't know if this application is enough, but in Modern it shuts down Second Sunrise decks, Affinity/Robots and even Vedalken Shackles. If it can cover enough spread of decks in the format, its likely to be included in any decks that can cast it. This could end up seeing a decent return on investment. Since Iām not putting additional money into my paper collection at the moment, Iām going to be trying to trade for them whenever possible.
What other Innistrad block Rares are good targets right now? We know what color-pairs (guilds) will be featured next set, does that tell us anything else about the future of Standard?
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