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Delver Who? A New Metagame Dawns in Cincinnati

Posted on by Kelly Reid

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Outperform / Underperform

The following table is a list of all cards that appeared in Top 16 deck lists.  The Top 8 and Top 16 columns indicate how popular a given card was within the bracket.  Thragtusk, for example, comprised 3.4% of all cards in the Top 16 but only 2.47% of those in the Top 8.  The Total column represents the percentage of the entire sampled field.

Columns T8 Outperform and T16 Outperform measure how much more frequently a given card appeared in a bracket than appeared in the entire event's decklist pool.

Thragtusk had a good day out.  I don't want to call it a 'breakout' card because everyone already knew it was good, but the numbers on the chart below tell a new story about the card's power level.  I expect the metagame to evolve around Thragtusk and Zombies for the most part, which makes me glad my current Standard brew is heavy on Syncopate, Azorius Charm and Feeling of Dread.

Green decks:
No Goyf		Green decks:
No Goyf %		Green decks:
With Goyf		Green decks:
With Goyf %
Infect7%Abzan13.4%
Abzan Liege3.2%Jund2.3%
RG Tron2.8%RUG Twin1.3%
Amulet Bloom2.8%Sultai Control.4%
Scapeshift2.5%
Bogles1.8%
4C Gifts1%
Nykthos Green.8%
TOTAL %
OF GREEN DECKS		56%TOTAL %
OF GREEN DECKS		44%

 

 

Biggest Losers

The following table is a list of all the cards that didn't make it into a deck finishing in the Top 16.  There are some really good cards on this list, and if this trend keeps up we can expect  big price shifts.  Some of these were so shocking I almost quit working on this analysis in frustration, certain that my data was fundamentally flawed.  Then I went back and double checked everything.

Top 5 Surprising Failures

Restoration Angel
Delver of Secrets
Armada Wurm
Zealous Concsripts
Hinterland Harbor

[table “5” not found /]

 

Location, Location, Location

The table that follows is a breakdown of the Top 16 mana base.  Other than going long on Forests and Plains which, for the record, I do not endorse , your actionables might be getting Sunpetal Groves at dirt-cheap prices in trade binders.  If these numbers extrapolate well to a larger scale, it could be one of the staples that you churn though dozens of in the course of a month.  The same may be true of Glacial Fortress.  

The shock lands are toxic to me; I don't know where they'll settle and there's no way I'm going to risk playing the lottery with them.  I see no upside at this price.   That's how I feel about Innistrad lands too; there's no value left in their upside, and I don't want to be stuck with the bill if / when they drop.

Gavony Township in the 15th spot catches my eye, since it's the first of the Innistrad utility lands on the list and it's paired up with the right colors.  It won't be a 4-of in 99% of decks that include it, but at the current price (around 1.00) they are cheap throw-ins that have some, but limited, upside.  I've got about a dozen of them sitting in a pile on my desk, hoping that they'll hit 2.00.

Deck# of finishes
(1/28 - 3/17)		GWP
Mono U Tron2572.89%
Infect6470.79%
Storm2770.68%
Amulet Bloom5270.10%
Affinity9870.04%
Burn18769.73%
Ad Nauseam2069.57%
Grixis Delver1669.51%
Jund1669.19%
Abzan18268.74%
Scapeshift4068.67%
Bogles2568.65%
UR Twin14868.60%
Nykthos Green2068.53%
RUG Twin1768.38%
UWR Midrange1468.28%
RG Tron4768.22%
Merfolk4668.17%
Abzan Liege4767.55%
4C Gifts3667.52%
BW Tokens2067.02%
UW Control2066.25%
UWR Control3665.43%

 

Note: I'm using a lot of experimental and new technology to generate these reports.  Data may be missing or inaccurate.  Don't shoot the messenger. 

Insider: Getting Started in MTGO Speculating, Part 2

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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Today I continue my primer for people looking to speculate on MTGO for the first time. If you didn't catch last week's article, be sure to read that first.

Step 4: Finding a Good Price

This will take a little work. The MTGO market is quite efficient, but it can still be worth a few tix to hunt around.

Cardbot and the Classifieds

Start with the majors. Go to Cardbot’s website and punch in a card that you are curious about. Their prices can be on the high end of the market but they are very responsive. If a card is crashing in price, Cardbot's prices will often lead the rest of the market.

They also have a very good selection, especially for Eternal formats such as Modern or Legacy. Transaction times are the fastest around. Their prices are a good baseline to which you can compare other prices.

Sticking to the Godless Shrine example from Part 1, we see it’s currently at 5.91 tix.

Next, scan the classifieds for what you are interested in. To do this, enter "Godless Shrine" with no quotations in the search function at the top of the page. Since it's currently out of print, the number of listings for Godless Shrine will be somewhat small.

If a card is in print, we can expect many more listings as well as humans selling on the classifieds. Humans will typically post a card for sale that is lower than the market sell price, but higher than the market buy price. They are trying to squeeze out a ticket or two by posting here and waiting for a buyer.

This illustrates another way to buy cards. Post your own ad to the classifieds! In this case, I would post something like the above. And if I was playing in a tournament and had some time, I might score a few deals here or there. If you post a lower price, you might get a better deal, but alternatively you might not get any action at all. Posting a price that is competitive with the other bots ensures you won’t overpay.

However, this method counts on a player scanning the classifieds and randomly choosing your listing. The bot chains have a name out there, and they get repeat business because they have established a relationship with their customer base. If you post prices similar to the bot chains, there is nothing to distinguish you from them. Posting a buy price .5 to 1 tix higher than the bots gives you an edge to get the cards you want.

In the search results for Godless Shrine, you may notice many bots posting buy prices of 3 tix. These are the low ball bots that seek to take advantage of new or lazy players. When all the listings are buying for 3 tix, one might assume that that is the current market buy price. But this is quite a bit below what the major bots are paying.

These low balling bots exist because of the low barrier to entry. Posting a buy price higher than these bots will distinguish your ad from them, but your price will often still be below what the majors are paying.

To ensure your price is competitive you'll want to offer slightly more than the majors. Note this is not always possible due to the indivisibility of tix, but you can modify your buy price by paying more for multiples. For example, posting "Buying Godless Shrine 5, or 2 for 11" means you are offering 5.5 tix per copy.

Other References

If the classifieds are a bit sparse, then it’s time to dig deeper into the bot chains to find a deal. Go to supernovabots and check their prices. Scan the list by using the Find function of your browser, Ctrl+F on Firefox. Highlighted here is the Godless Shrine listing:

Supernova posts two prices if they have a card in stock. On the left is their buy price and on the right is their sell price. Beside that is the name of the bot holding the card and the quantity available. For Godless Shrine, there is one copy in stock, and at 5.70 tix it’s only at a small discount with respect to Cardbot. Nothing wrong with going for this one, but let’s keep looking.

The last stop will be MTGOLibrary. Entering "Godless Shrine" in their price wiki causes the following list of bots, prices and quantities to come up.

Again, not much of a discount, but picking off the top of the listing gives two copies for a total of 11.32, which represents a total savings of 0.5 tix over buying through Cardbot. A little bit of work has saved a small amount of tix in this case.

MTGOLibrary sometimes provides out-of-date information, but don't get discouraged if you see a deal that is too good to be true. Be sure to check it out, because sometimes you'll be the first to find it. It's also useful to see the range of prices and quantities available on the wiki. Knowing the depth of the market on a card can give you the sense for where the price might be headed next.

Step 5: Purchasing

This step is easy. Take the lowest prices and buy what you can. In this case, Godless Shrine is not a hot card, so buying the cheapest ones available and leaving the others for the moment is fine. Some more might come onto the market over the coming weeks and they might be priced lower.

Below is a snap shot of my trade book for Godless Shrine over the past week. Different days see different prices according to the ebb and flow of the market. For a low pressure play like this, spreading out purchases can yield better deals over time.

Name Price Quantity Average Cost Total Date Motivation
Godless Shrine 5.79 4 5.79 23.16 9/25/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.157 2 5.157 10.314 9/25/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.5 1 5.5 5.5 9/25/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.12 3 5.12 15.36 9/28/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.66 3 5.66 16.98 9/28/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.3 4 5.3 21.2 9/28/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.73 3 5.73 17.19 9/28/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.66 2 5.66 11.32 9/30/2012 Hold for Modern
Godless Shrine 5.91 4 5.91 23.64 10/1/2012 Hold for Modern
Total 26 5.564 144.664

Step 6: Waiting

After buying comes the waiting. This type of off season purchase strategy is low risk and boring, but pays off. To employ it you must practice patience, otherwise this is where the fear might creep in. Refer back to your trade book and read the motivation for buying this card.

In this case, the motivation is "Hold for Modern" (with the release of Gatecrash as a back up plan) which means waiting till the end of November or early December for the start of the Modern PTQ season. At that time, other speculators and players will be anticipating the season and will have bought up available copies. Getting in now ensures arriving to the party before things get out of hand.

Supply of the Dissension and Guildpact shocklands is quite thin online. Observe the recent surge in the price of Stomping Ground after [card Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle]Valakut's[/card] unbanning. It quickly went from 6 tix to 15 tix. If half the interest crops up in Godless Shrine, this position will still yield a tidy, very low risk profit.

Step 7: Selling

Last year, there were two good opportunities to sell Godless Shrine during Modern season. Look for that initial price spike to occur again in December. When the time comes to sell, your options are pretty much identical to those covered above in Step 4. Putting up a sell ad in the classifieds will often yield the most tix, but also takes the most time.

Cardbot will take up to four copies of any card at a time and they pay a predictable price. If Godless Shrine is selling for 10 tix on Cardbot during Modern season, expect to get a little over 8 tix when selling to them. Compare the price with what Supernova is paying if you are looking to sell only a few. Both chains adjust their prices when a card is bought or sold, but Supernova has a much lower threshold and will give different prices for copies past the first in most transactions.

If you scroll up and look at the MTGO Library screen cap, you'll see the two columns on the right list a buying price and a buying quantity. Often these prices are not very competitive, but there are times when a card's price has just dropped and the bots in this network can be slow to update.

Step 8: Profit! (With Guarantee)

I am quite confident in the call on Godless Shrine. For anyone who is looking to try out online speculating, I will guarantee a small position is zero risk.

The substance of this guarantee is as follows. I promise to buy up to a playset of Godless Shrines from you in the first week of January for 6 tix a piece. In other words, you can't lose if you are buying Godless Shrine for 6 tix or less today. For those that are interested in taking me up on this offer, please comment on this article with the number of Godless Shrine you bought and at what price.

Come January just look me up on QS or MTGO and I'll buy your copies for 6 tix each, up to a maximum of 4 copies per person.

Insider: The Value of Sealed Product

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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I hope everyone’s Return to Ravnica prerelease was as awesome as mine! I played both Golgari and then Azorious and liked both, though I found I definitely preferred Azorious, at least for the 2HG format. Playing Draw-Go while your partner played Creatures was fun.

All right, with that out of the way, I have a quick question for you:

What Magic product has increased the most in price over the last four years?

I expect a lot of things are running through your mind right now. Here’s one you may have guessed.

Underground Sea is a good guess. All the Duals have gone crazy in that time frame, and Sea has risen about $70 since then. If you asked me this same question, I would have likely answered the same were I pressed, or a few other cards I could name.

But that’s not right.

Would you have guessed From the Vault: Dragons?

The special item, which opened at $35 MSRP and could be had for even less than that, is up to $150 on SCG and goes for somewhere around that on Ebay. Someone even spent $157 on one, which is a little crazy since it can be had for cheaper than that on SCG, but to each his own.

What? There’s not even any Constructed playable Dragons in the box! I know, but Collectors want it. That, combined with the short print run of the product and the growth in the player base since then has led to a $115 retail increase. That’s a rate of about $30 a year.

To be blunt, that’s insane. Investors would kill for stocks that consistently showed that kind of growth. We have that right here with Magic, but it’s something even those of us “in the business” overlook way too often.

I know why. It’s not sexy to sit on cards or product for years at a time as it accumulates dust in the closet. And, unless you’re a collector who just likes to look at it, it means very little to you.

I came into a lot of sealed product about 6 months ago in a collection, including all the good From the Vaults and all five Commander decks. I recently found a buyer for all of it at once, so I shipped to him at a bit of a discount because stocking away the money, not to mention selling it all at once instead of piecemeal, was an attractive option for me. But that doesn’t mean I’m not always on the lookout for sealed product to hold onto, even though I have no interest in collecting it.

Because it’s not just Dragons that is worth money. Hell, it’s not even the sets that come with more value in them than the sticker price. Stuff like Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins commands a nice price, and even things largely seen as “misses” like FTV: Legends or Premium Deck Series Graveborn routinely sell now for more than the MSRP.

I think we can attribute this to the “collectible” aspect of this Collectible Card Game we all love. As players and traders collecting isn’t something we all inherently understand, but it clearly affects the market. It is a totally advisable move to grab every sealed product you can at MSRP when it comes out, even if it’s a critical disappointment. In the long run, this will essentially give you cash to hide away in your closet, only to find it’s accrued interest when you get back to it.

Sealed Product and Ravnica

With that out there, let’s look at the most recent round of Sealed product we can get: Guild Boxes.

And, unfortunately, I’m just not sure I can advice buying into these, at least not en masse. The price on these has come steadily down in the last week as more and more hit Ebay. I have an Izzet guild box I got as prize support that I have up on Ebay, and I expect to get no more than $30 for it.

And I expect that to come down even further, for a few reasons. Firstly, these things are kinda flimsy. Now, that’s not a complaint per se, because they were great for what they were built to do and the concept was awesome, but it means the boxes aren’t going to hold up great over time compared to the way the product like the From The Vaults series will.

This is the same reason that individual Faction packs from Mirrodin Besieged aren’t selling great on Ebay; people want a wrapped box or a clearly-sealed product. With our Guild Boxes, the “seal” is literally just a small sticker. This doesn’t help matters.

Secondly, if/when the box is opened, the cards inside are just regular packs. Even the Guild pack has regular cards in it. Once it’s been “cracked” (small piece of tape broken) the entire package is worth nothing more than any other six packs of Return to Ravnica.

Now, I’m not saying these won’t increase over the years. On the contrary, I’m sure they will. The question, though, is if it will be enough to make it worth investing money in. A product that goes up $30 a year is a great; a product that goes up $5 a year probably isn’t worth keeping. That money can be better reinvested in other products.

Products like the upcoming Commander’s Arsenal, for instance. A premium set that comes in nice packaging and contains alternative art/foiling for historically popular cards? That’s the kind of place we want to be.

The first impulse upon getting these products at MSRP (if your store sells at that price), can be to flip them for instant profit. And that’s fine. But it’s products like CA that are going to keep going up in price, just like Dragons.

And that’s where I’m going to put my money when it comes to sealed product.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Ravnica Standard: Part 3

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

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Question: Do you think players really won't be ready for your Gravecrawlers?

Let me first say that Zombies is very good, regardless of which version of the deck you are playing. Players have to prepare to play against the deck or doom themselves to loosing some quick matches. Rest assured, your opponents will come equipped with answers.

As a Zombies player, you need to anticipate the likely answers opponents will have and craft a deck that can contend with them. For example, Pillar of Flame is an extremely good tool for dealing with Gravecrawlers and Geralf's Messengers. As a Zombie player, your next thought should be, "What am I going to do about those Pillar of Flames?"

Thinking on this question led me to design a midrange zombie deck. Some of the choices I made are radical, but sometimes it is better to play a slightly worse card overall because it is better in the format.

Midrange Zombies

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Gravecrawler
3 Deathrite Shaman
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Dreg Mangler
4 Vampire Nighthawk
2 Sluiceway Scorpion
1 Thragtusk

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
4 Rancor
4 Tragic Slip
3 Garruk Relentless

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Woodland Cemetery
2 Golgari Guildgate
1 Grim Backwoods
8 Swamp
4 Forest

Obviously this is not your typical Zombie deck. I want to start by talking about the cards that didn't make the cut.

The major card I removed was Geralf's Messenger. There were a few reasons for this decision. First, casting a three-drop that dies to a one-mana, frequently-played removal spell is not a play that will win you many games. Having your Gravecrawler removed with Pillar of Flame is not nearly as bad for you because both of you spent the same amount of mana. It is more detrimental when this happens to your Messenger.

Coming into play tapped can be an issue as well. Often this doesn't matter but when it does it's usually a key part of the game.

The final reason that I made the cut was because there is a card that I want to replace it with in Vampire Nighthawk. The Nighthawk doesn't die to Pillar, has lifelink, and many decks cannot deal with the flying evasion. One of the best lines of play with Midrange Zombies is giving your Vampire Nighthawk a Rancor. The deathtouch ability is also important because it allows you to trade your three-mana creature for a more expensive one.

The second part of the deck missing are the other one-mana creatures. By playing many one- and two-mana creatures, you are trying to win the game as quickly as possible. But since both Huntmaster of the Fells and Thragtusk are legal in the format, you usually do not kill your opponent fast enough. Therefore, instead of drawing irrelevant one-mana dorks, why not play something else. I did not include Rakdos Shred-Freak for this same reason.

The idea for this deck actually came from the draft I did last night with my friends. My first pick in pack one was Lotleth Troll and my first pick in pack two was Deathrite Shaman. I took first in this draft mostly because of these two amazing cards. It seemed that every time I played one of these two creatures early in the game, I was able to win with relative ease. In game two of the finals, I even won a game where I never hit more than two mana just because turn two Lotleth Troll was just that strong.

Draft is not the same as Standard, this is true, but both of those creatures do powerful enough things to see play in Standard. We have all heard a lot about the troll and it is easy to see how the card embodies the essence of power creep. Deathrite Shaman on the other hand, is much more subtle.

The three unique abilities on Deathrite Shaman make it hard to judge his power level. Think about the first time you saw a card like Grim Lavamancer. To me, Lavamancer seems basically unplayable on face. Now we all know that Grim Lavamancer is a solid card, but that was not always the case. Deathrite Shaman needs to be fueled the same way.

Going back to my first point about ways to deal with all the recursive creatures in Standard, the shaman fills this role quite well. In addition to shutting down undying and Snapcaster Mage, he works well in conjunction with Grisly Salvage to produce value turn after turn.

Grisly Salvage is similar to Forbidden Alchemy in that it lets you dig for what you need, but in the right deck provides additional value by filling the graveyard. The Zombies deck takes advantage of Grisly Salvage with scavenge creatures, extra Gravecrawlers, and Deathrite Shaman.

The most questionable card in the deck is certainly Sluiceway Scorpion. You might be thinking this card doesn't cut the mustard but I think it's just barely good enough.

The main reason I included the Scorpion is because it combos well with Lotleth Troll. Following up a turn two troll by discarding and scavenging Sluiceway Scorpion is a solid line of play. This will grant three counters to your troll and put your opponent on a very fast clock. Even on his own though, a four mana creature with deathtouch can still help you deal with larger threats. All I am saying is that I think Sluiceway Scorpion is good enough. Most of the time, you are not casting him though.

One Thragtusk seems odd, but his main purpose is as a tutor target for Garruk Relentless. With only twenty-three lands, you won't reliably hit five mana on turn five anyway. If you don't, you can always discard him to Lotleth Troll.

This version of Zombies has some definite strengths. One of the biggest is the mana base. Cutting Geralf's Messenger allows room to play some Forests which will help cast our spells more reliably. Another strength is how much synergy the cards in the deck have with one another. This list is capable of some fast starts, but also provides a stable base in order to combat the rest of the format.

Updating Armada Wurm

Last week, I talked about a variety of decks that utilize Armada Wurm. Building on those ideas, I have an updated list.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Thragtusk
2 Armada Wurm

Spells

3 Tragic Slip
4 Call of the Conclave
4 Intangible Virtue
4 Lingering Souls
3 Oblivion Ring
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Garruk Relentless
2 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
2 Vraska the Unseen
2 Underworld Connections

Lands

4 Woodland Cemetery
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple Garden
1 Selesnya Guildgate
1 Golgari Guildgate
2 Gavony Township
2 Swamp
2 Plains

I like this version a lot. It's much more streamlined and combines the best elements of the token deck and the aggro control deck into one cohesive strategy.

One of the biggest additions to the deck is Garruk Relentless. I am not sure how I forgot about him because I have been a huge fan ever since he was printed. As a removal spell, token maker, and tutor, he provides a powerful toolbox of effects that will help you in many situations. His stock has gone up drastically in my opinion because there are much fewer flying creatures to be concerned with.

Many of my decks have included Sever the Bloodline but there wasn't room for it in this list. If Liliana of the Veil proves too weak for the metagame, I could see making room for the Severs in that spot but that might leave us with too many four-mana spells. Sever does a great job of answering many of the hard-to-answer creatures right now so consider it when you are building your decks.

There are so many possibilities right now, I am anxious to see what actually happens at the first big event, the Star City Open this weekend in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, my plans to attend fell through so I will be stuck watching coverage. I am sure this first event will provide a lot for us to talk about next week. If you guys have any ideas for decks similar to these, post them below for discussion.

Until next time,

Unleash the Return to Ravnica Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
(I'm active on twitter again, so send me a message sometime.)
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Good Luck, High Five! Episode 5: Cradlerob Behemoth

Posted on by Mike Hawthorne

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Mike, Forrest, and Ryan are joined by Pat Mcgregor to discuss the Return to Ravnica Prerelease, the return of the MTGO Cube and general degeneracy.


Download Here (Right click, save as)

(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Some Junk I’ve Been Working On

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

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Magic really is a different game than it used to be. Return to Ravnica hasn’t even had its official release date and the general public already has a pretty good idea of what they can expect of the Standard metagame. As a matter of fact, many players are already finding themselves sick of the “Zombie menace”.

Personally, I haven’t been a big fan of aggressive decks for a number of years. Geralf's Messenger, while very powerful, is hardly what I look for in a haymaker. That said, being aware of how to beat the Zombie deck is the only way to produce anything viable for the immediate future of Standard. And building a viable deck is exactly what my goal is.

Let’s start by identifying the enemy. At its core, Zombies is a pile of cheap 2-power donks:


Essentially, assembling an early Mass of Ghouls is the way that Zombies attempts to beat the Thragtusk decks. Enough early pressure, combined with a good amount of reach, will pretty easily be able to deal 25 damage come turn five.

Speaking of reach, this is more or less what you’ll have to look out for when you’re trying to stabilize against Zombies:


All of these cards synergize very well to produce a lot of damage. That being the case, it seems to me that generating creatures that can block their early offense, as well as having access to a healthy amount of lifegain, will be the best way to combat Zombies. Alternatively, you could try to kill them faster, but I’m the wrong person to talk to about accomplishing such a task. I’d much rather grief them in a long game.

To this end, the defensive creature suite that I like against Zombies looks something like this:


Centaur Healer is a far cry from exciting, but I’m far more interested in beating a metagame than looking cool while doing so. It blocks well and gains life, which is exactly what I think is needed.

Smiter doesn’t gain any life, but it’s able to block both halves of a Messenger, and doesn’t outright die to a non-morbid Brimstone Volley or a lone Flames of the Firebrand. I also like having the option to sandbag Smiters against potential Rakdos's Returns. I don’t think that this will be particularly relevant in the immediate future, but it definitely doesn’t hurt to be prepared. Additionally, this guy is a pretty efficient beater in situations where your opponent isn’t aggressive.

Knight of Glory is another card that isn’t particularly exciting by today’s standards, but is completely appropriate in today’s Standard. On the surface it looks to be exclusively a pre-boarded option for battling Zombies, but it carries quite a bit more weight than just that. Having an aggressive curve to battle Planeswalkers is always a good thing, and it breaks Restoration Angel mirrors, which are likely going to be a large portion of the non-Zombie metagame.

What’s that? I hadn’t mentioned that I was playing Restoration Angel yet? Let’s get these bad boys out of the way then:


This endgame is pretty obviously insane. Gaining forty-billion life and making an army of 3/3s and 5/5s is some strong. As I mentioned earlier, the major problem is surviving to this point in the game. While I think that the above creature package manhandles Zombies pretty well, I don’t believe that blocking them into submission is a winning strategy.

A third color seems necessary for some removal. Oblivion Ring is fine, but I think that we can do better. Early in my testing I opted to battle with Pillar of Flame as it’s very good against Geralf's Messenger and Gravecrawler, but man was it ever bad against Falkenrath Aristocrat and Rakdos Shred-Freak. It was also unimpressive against the Lotleth Trolls and Dreg Manglers of GB Zombies.

If killing one toughness creatures at varying points on the curve at instant speed is important, then it’s hard to do much better than Tragic Slip. An additional boon of Tragic Slip is the flexibility to wreck up mana-dorks and giganto-bombs, such as Niv-Mizzet, alike. Being black is also sweet because it gives the deck access to Sever the Bloodline, aka the catch-all to everything, plus flashback.

All of this covers the Zombie match very well along with covering a few extra bases, but the deck still needs a way to compete with decks trying to go bigger than it. My favorite way to accomplish such a task is to draw extra cards, which makes these guys a pretty good fit:


Each card has its advantages over the other, but ultimately I think that being a freakin’ Planeswalker makes me want more Garruks. The desire to avoid Planeswalker redundancy, in tandem with wanting to lower the curve a tad, makes me want at least one Disciple. Be sure to keep in mind the synergies between these guys and Knight of Glory.

Lastly, we need a way to cast our spells. GWB has the great fortune of being a three-color set that has two dual lands in Return to Ravnica, which makes building the mana base fairly easy. In decks with lower curves I’d be wary about just jamming all of the duals, but this deck doesn’t really have any turn one plays and is capable of gaining a good amount of life. If you want to play it more conservatively then feel free to mess with the manabase. A good route to go is to make room for some Borderland Rangers or Gatecreeper Vines, but I really don’t think you need them. Here is my current list:

The Yard

spells

4 Thragtusk
4 Restoration Angel
4 Sever the Bloodline
4 Tragic Slip
4 Centaur Healer
2 Armada Wurm
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
4 Loxodon Smiter
4 Knight of Glory
2 Disciple of Bolas

lands

3 Plains
2 Swamp
4 Temple Garden
4 Overgrown Tomb
1 Forest
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Woodland Cemetery
4 Isolated Chapel

I’m not entirely certain how strong this deck is going to be as the format evolves, but I think I’ve done a pretty good job of picking cards with wide applications and/or high levels of raw power. At the end of the day it is a rock deck, so it should be able to beat most decks even if it doesn’t do so especially consistently. If nothing else, it sure beats up on Zombies.

If you have any questions or comments I’m always more than happy to address them. Until next time, good luck; high five!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Financial Opportunities of the Scars Block Rotation, Part 2

Posted on by Ryan Abcede

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If you haven't read yesterdays article check it out here. Today I'll be finishing off the remaining colors, Black, Red, Green as well as Lands. As promised I will reveal my 2nd favorite pick that could easily give you 10 times your initial investment and it will not be hard to get rid of either!

BLACK

Bloodlord of Vaasgoth


Current SCG Price - $1.50, Foil $3
Reason – Vampire pseudo Lord

Cemetery Reaper


Current SCG Price - $1.5, Foil $3
Reason – Zombie Lord

Both of these cards are basically Lords for their tribes. They are low enough that they both can easily double. You can probably get Bloodlords for under a buck and Cemetery Reapers for just around a buck. Keep in mind Cemetery Reaper has been printed 3 times.

Exsanguinate


Current SCG Price - $0.75, Foil $3 both sold out.
Reason – Commander staple

Exsanguinate is my 2nd favorite pick for the rotation. The main reason is not its future price, it is because it is such a low buy in. As long as Exsanguinate is not reprinted it will definitely be worth a couple bucks down the road. SCG is sold out at $0.75 but if you look hard enough you might be able to find these at 10 cents depending on how your store handles uncommons or how good your online search powers are. Obviously foils are even better to pick up and should rise in price even faster.

Grave Titan


Current SCG Price - $5, Foil $8, DOTP Foil $8
Reason – One of the 5 Titans

Grave Titan is great in Cubes and Commander. Try and hunt down the DOTP foils.

Hand of the Praetors


Current SCG Price - $1, Foil $2
Reason – Poison/Infect/Lord

This was a $5 rare around release and should eventually get back to that price. Hand of the Praetor is the only Infect Lord now and most likely forever.

Massacre Wurm


Current SCG Price - $3, Foil $6
Reason – Commander/Cube

A great card for Commander and Cube as long as the respective decks can handle the casting cost. Not many cards can win you the game from so far behind as Massacre Wurm can.

Rune-Scarred Demon


Current SCG Price - $1.50, Foil $3
Reason – Tutor and a finisher in one card

Rune-Scarred Demon is a versatile Commander staple. Being a Demon also helps his case in the pure Casual market. The foil is slightly lower than expected because it was an Intro Pack foil rare. Use this to your advantage when trading for this guy.

Sheoldred, Whispering One


Current SCG Price - $4, Foil $8, Prerelease Foil $3
Reason – Commander written all over it

Sheoldred is arguably the Praetor with the most Casual appeal. She is also a promo foil so you should be able to find various copies out there ripe for the taking.

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon


Current SCG Price - $3.50, Foil $13
Reason – The poster boy of Infect

Years from now all of the other infect creatures will fade into the background, but Skithiryx will be known by all players as the Infect dragon. He is a great intro Commander because his game plan is so simple. Being a Dragon helps increase his casual appeal even more. Skithiryx has so many things going for him that he is practically a no brainer.

RED

Inferno Titan


Current SCG Price - $2.50, Foil $5, DOTP Foil $5
Reason – One of the 5 Titans

Inferno Titan is my personal favorite out of the 5 Titans. It is so aggressive compared to the other 4 and can win games in a single attack. As with the other 2 DOTP promos, hunt the mace swinging alternate art DOTP promo version down. You won’t be sorry.

Spikeshot Elder


Current SCG Price - $2, Foil $3
Reason – Interacts favorably with Equipment

Spikeshot Elder is a great Commander card mainly because Equipment exists. He should drop very low at rotation but will slowly climb from then on until he is reprinted or gets outclassed.

GREEN

Birthing Pod


Current SCG Price - $3.50, Foil $10
Reason – Multi-format playable

Birthing Pod is one of those cards that can easily become competitive in almost any format, casual or constructed alike. Its role in the Modern metagame should be enough to push it over its current worth but adding in Commander playability can easily push this into the 100%+ profit range.

Genesis Wave


Current SCG Price - $2.50, foil $5
Reason – Commander Staple

Genesis Wave made a small splash in Standard but its worth primarily comes from the Commander and sometimes the Cube market. It always makes a big splash in games and is very unpredictable. Genesis Wave could easily be an $8+ card one day barring any reprints. Look at it like Tooth and Nail. Even prior to its Modern spike it was still a money card on the back of Commander alone. I see no reason Genesis Wave can’t follow in its footsteps. If it were a buck cheaper retail this would definitely be one of my top 3 picks.

Green Sun's Zenith


Current SCG Price - $8, Foil $20
Reason – Multi-format all-star

Green Sun is more of a hold call. They are already pretty high but they do have room to grow. I would say the ceiling is $15 but that is a long way off. If it gets unbanned in Modern it could sky rocket. Hold on to any you have or if you need to trade, only let them go for Legacy stuff. Don’t risk resources like this on new and unproven Standard cards. The risk is just not worth it.

Praetor's Counsel


Current SCG Price - $1.50, Foil $7
Reason – Commander

This is a Commander only card so it can’t go up too much but it is definitely worth more than its current price.

Primeval Titan


Current SCG Price - $10, Foil $25
Reason – Banned in Commander

There is a small opportunity here if Primeval drops below $5. At $5 I would trade for him heavily, at less than $3 I would start buying him with cash. This is all in spec of him getting unbanned one day in Commander, seeing play in Modern or the Casual market holding his price up.

Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger


Current SCG Price - $3.50, Foil $8
Reason – What’s better than Doubling Mana? Vorinclex is!

Vorinclex is the king of Mana Flare effects. Being a Commander option adds to his value. He should have no trouble going up in value, especially in foil.

LANDS/COLORLESS

Karn Liberated


Current SCG Price - $15, Foil $25
Reason – Unique and highly playable Plansewalker.

Karn is the new Nicol Bolas. At his height Nicol Bolas was over $20 retail and he was not even played in Constructed. Karn is playable in Modern and holds a similar allure story wise that Nicol Bolas does. He also has one of the most epic ultimates of all the Planeswalkers. Pick up any copies you can through trades if you are ok sitting on him for a while at his current price point.

Blackcleave Cliffs
Current SCG Price - $3.60 (sale), Foil $7
Copperline Gorge
Current SCG Price - $2.25 (sale), Foil $6
Darkslick Shores
Current SCG Price - $2.70 (sale), Foil $6
Razorverge Thicket
Current SCG Price - $1.70(sale), Foil $6
Seachrome Coast
Current SCG Price - $3.15 (sale), Foil $6


Reason – Modern Playable, Cube playable

The Fast Lands are pretty high on the dual land hierarchy. They play a vital role in Modern, especially in Jund which shows in the price difference between Blackcleave Cliffs and the others. They can also be found in some Cubes. The Fast Lands could potentially drop to near bulk rates for a short while. This is a great opportunity for the patient investor to grab them while they are cheap and sell during Modern peaks.

Inkmoth Nexus


Current SCG Price - $5, Foil $10
Reason – Infect Artifact Man Land. Nuff said.

Inkmoth Nexus definitely can contend with Skithiryx for the Infect poster boy title. Inkmoth is so low right now that you could easily double your investment or more on them. Use their inclusion in the event deck to further diminish their value.

Use your overpriced Return to Ravnica cards as trade bait for any of the above cards and you should be set up for tons of value throughout the next year and more. The beauty of the 3 Cs is usually the longer you wait the more value you get out of them. If you make some money off of any of these feel free to tweet me at @RyeABC. I am closely approaching 100 followers. I will be giving away something at that point but I still have to figure out what. I had a contest going at one point but that was so long ago that I have traded away some of the prizes since then. Thanks for reading.

Jason’s Archives: Death’s Sweet (Pre-) Release & Lessons Learned from AA

Posted on by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

The prerelease has come, gone and left me with the world's worst Magic hangover. I have slept for a grand total of five hours in the last 72 and with two articles to write, a podcast to record and four days' worth of eBay orders to fill, I'm just hoping this article comes across as at least somewhat coherent.

My personal goal was to play five prerelease events this weekend. While I didn't manage to play each guild once, I did manage to end a six-year streak of winning a box during every set's prerelease weekend. My three-landers that never saw another one until turn 14, games where I drew eight land in a row and mulligans to four made me feel like my deck was the person directly in front of me in the human centipede.

What Can Alcoholics Anonymous Teach Cranky PTQ Grinders?

I'm sort of a superstitious dude in some respects. When it comes to Limited Magic, I engage in certain ritualistic behaviors even though I don't believe they will affect the outcome of a match. I put my cards in the sleeves upside down, for example, and I make sure all my basic lands have the same picture. (In one prerelease, the latter habit led to the consternation of pro player Eric David Taylor. He cast Thoughtseize on my grip full of land and exclaimed that his payment of two life couldn't even buy him information about topdecked lands.)

Another player, noticing that I was taking five minutes diligently digging through the land box for eight identical Plains, remarked "you can't control your draws or your opponents' draws or how many bombs you get, but you can sure as hell control the picture on your basic lands." He was obviously making fun of my ridiculous tic, but I think he inadvertently may have been onto something.

What We Can't Change

The AA Serenity Prayer begins by asking for the grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed. In that context, I began to view my insistence on "controlling" the basic lands I used not as a superstitious thing but as the impulsive behavior of a control freak.

If you're a control freak, maybe Magic isn't your game -- it has a degree of variance, which by definition cannot be controlled.

The burning desire for eleven identical John Avon M13 Mountains may seem goofy at first, but I'm beginning to see it as my way of dealing with bad beats. Like how I lost a match to a player whose pair of Drainpipe Vermin dealt me 12 damage alone before he deployed another threat. My mulligan to three lands and a Vassal Soul apparently wasn't good enough as the Soul met an Auger Spree and 12 of the next 13 cards off the top of my deck were basic lands.

Maybe you're laughing right now. It is kind of funny.

Only I didn't laugh. I raged. I went on tilt and made sure my opponent knew that Drainpipe Vermin is not maindeckable in Limited. I'd like to say that was the only time I lost to repeated mulligans and debilitating mana issues, but that would be a lie. I'd like to say I handled it better as the weekend went on. Also a lie.

The Options

I think it's time for a little bit of perspective. I spent my weekend playing (let's be honest) what amounts to a children's card game. If it's not fun anymore, you have two choices.

  1. Quit.
  2. Learn to accept the things you cannot change.

Sometimes the better player loses. There's variance in Magic, and that's what most people actually like about it. If you can't accept variance, there's always chess.

But chess is less exciting than Magic because David rarely beats Goliath at chess. There's no Bonfire off the top to make the crowd cheer. See LSV's face in that gif? That was my face most of this weekend whereas I should have been as excited as a kid in a store full of candy and fireworks. It is the return to Ravnica for crap's sake. Maybe it should also be the return to enjoying playing this game.

My name is Jason Alt and I am a control freak. I've been sober for 24 hours and next time I think about blaming the entire guild of Azorius for folding to turn 1 Deathrite Shaman, turn 2 Rakdos Shred-Freak, turn 3 Dreg Mangler followed by runner-runner-runner Auger Spree into Dreadbore into Auger Spree, I'm going to take a deep breath, call my sponsor, and remember there are some things I cannot change.

I'm still gonna sleeve upside down though.

Best Prerelease Ever?

Redditor JamminJelly thinks it was. He rocked his better-than-all costume at his LGS, Advisor to the Firemind style. He definitely gets an A for effort in my book. At a prerelease event, I am usually happy if my opponent remembered to bathe.

You think this is good, you should see his Liliana costume.


 

We were graced by an insightful observation this weekend from an individual whose work has often featured in this very article itself:

Who wasn't excited to see a stack of "Airplane Lunches" at their LGS? Reddtior juicythezombie was excited enough to snap this candid pic of the calm before a weekend of glorious battle.


 

Not to be outdone, the LGS where Redditor Emorio plays decided to hook every player up with this bitchin' mat. I'm jelly. The only way this could look cooler is if it were painted on the side of a van.


 

If you're jelly of that, be even more jellier of Slimgrim who played at the same LGS as Rk Post. Check out this custom mat!


 

Redditor Gravegill was feeling creative so he used what I imagine are black ultrapro sleeves to fashion some prison bars to represent detained creatures visually.

This works better than sprinkling the torn-up pieces of a Deadbridge Goliath on another creature to represent scavenge.
This is for you, Gravegill!

So Airplane Lunch Was a Hit. Any Misses?

I don't know whether to consider it a miss necessarily, but there is financial opportunity any time WoTC bungles the printing procedure. Not one, but several Redditors reported getting cards in their guild packs that weren't all that useful.

First Boreasblack:

Then redblade8:

Given the intact black border, this is clearly the result of a printing error and not any sort of post-production stripping. These misprints will likely trade well and if there are a lot out there, there is real opportunity to pick one up and flip for a profit.

Sporadic reports are coming in about stores getting shorted product and consequently canceling the prerelease. If there is indeed a run on RtR (more of this set will be opened than any other set ever) expect the price of boxes to exceed $130 as players scramble to get their decks completed for the first few events of the season.

If you're like me and have a case or two coming your way, you may want to sit tight before opening. You may be able to flip the boxes in the short term if you don't need to crack them for playables.

If Prerelease Weekend, Then No Decklists

That means I'm out of here early. By no means will I be spending this free time idly though, as tonight's podcast promises to be a blockbuster with special guest Smitty.

Check back next week to see if I win or lose my bet for a case of Fat Tire, riding on the performance of the much hailed Zombies deck. I, being a reasonable man, have claimed there is no way a Zombies deck can make Top 8 with everyone gunning for it, while Team Dreamcrush member Joey D says a deck at the center of so much prominent discussion can't possibly not get there. You won't want to miss any of the free entertainment I'm aiming to bring to your faces, kids.

Until next time may the sealed deck you build always correspond with the colors on the box, unless you don't want them to.

Insider: Financial Opportunities of the Scars Block Rotation, Part 1

Posted on by Ryan Abcede

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The 3 Cs of the Scars Block rotation

Rotation hits the world of Magic every year in October, yet most people are not ready for it. It is a huge shock to the metagame as well as the financial status of an entire block of cards we all knew and once loved. It is a bittersweet time of year because we get Magic Christmas (aka Spoiler season) but lose most of the mental and monetary investments we had developed over the year. But fear not, all it not lost! This is a perfect time for the savvy financiers out there to start doing what we do best, buy low and sell high!

Out of all formats the 3 Cs of Magic finance (Commander, Cube and Casual) benefit the most from rotation. Their formats are truly eternal, keeping almost every card printed in the playable card pool in some shape or form. Cards that derive their worth from these formats are very stable in price and only widespread reprinting or banning in Commander can change their value.

Some of these calls are very long. So not all of them will be for everyone; however, they are all very low risk with most of them being near bulk prices. I have a box of cards that I call my holds box. This is where these cards go. I check them around every set just to see which have doubled or more.

ARTIFACTS

Adaptive Automaton


Current SCG Price - $2, Foil $4
Reason – DIY Lord

Lords are traditionally $3 at minimum, but can easily shadow that number. I think the "Do it Yourself" Lord is a future $5 card.

Batterskull


Current SCG price - $7, Foil $16
Reason – Price

A lot of people think Batterskull is still a $10+ card but it is currently selling for $7 retail! This is a Legacy playable 3rd set Mythic! It is not a top-notch staple in Commander but it is definitely playable. It is a devastating Cube card that allows wins to appear out of nowhere. Even with all that said, I can see Batterskull dropping a little more. If RTR was not going to be the best selling set of all time Batterskull would probably have stayed at its current price. But with all eyes and money on RTR, Batterskull should have a little more room to fall. Look for them through non-retail avenues like MOTL and eBay for under $5 in the first few weeks of RTR

Bonehoard


Current SCG price – $0.50, Foil $2
Reason – Commander

A game of Commander that doesn’t have the board wiped at least once is not a properly played game of Commander. Bonehoard lets you tack the Lhurgoyf power onto random creatures and/or generals allowing you to you have an amazing tool for any game of Commander. Get 10 of these for half of a Starbucks coffee and send your thank you cards in a year.

Caged Sun


Current SCG price – $2, Foil $6
Reason – Casual/Commander/Mana Flare

Mana Reflection. Extraplanar Lense. Gauntlet of Power. Mirrari’s Wake. Historical evidence shows this type of card has value largely based on the Casual and Commander communities. If savvy traders have not already picked these clean from the Spikes in your area, get them now before they clue in. These cards traditionally settle just above the $5 mark.

Contagion Engine


Current SCG price – $1.50, Foil $3
Reason – Commander/Cube

For some reason Casual players love pretty much anything that doubles stuff. I could easily see this played in Commander decks with a big focus on the Proliferate portion of the card.

Grindclock


Reason - Mill player’s dream or Bulk diggers dream?
Current SCG Price - $0.50, Foil $2

There are a few cards on this list that I suggest to not spend any money of any sort on them. Grindclock is one of them. It could be bulk forever but it could go up to a buck or two at which point you should be able to cash out to buy lists pretty easily. Only hunt this down as throw ins, do not spend a single dime on these.

Mimic Vat


Current SCG Price - $1.50, Foil $5
Reason – Being Mimic Vat is all the reason it needs

Mimic Vat is definitely my number 1 pick. If you get just one card on this entire list, make sure it is Mimic Vat. At times, Mimic Vat skirted the line of Standard playability, which indicates its power level is above average. It is definitely worth more than its $1.50 retail price tag in a year. The $5 foil retail price tag also seems criminally low. Get any and all Mimic Vats you can find as it is great in Commander and a popular card in Cubes.

WHITE

Angelic Destiny


Current SCG Price - $4, Foil $20
Reason – Powerful White Enchant Creature

For some reason, White Enchant Creature spells have created a niche market. Cards like Celestial Mantle or Daybreak Coronet are worth more than the average player thinks. Angelic Destiny is better than all of these so it should easily maintain a Mythic worthy price tag.

Elspeth Tirel


Current SCG Price - $6, Foil $12
Reason – Planeswalker

Almost all Planeswalkers have inherent worth to them and Elspeth is possibly in the top half of them playability wise. I don’t know if you will find any further price dips or deals on her, she is close to her retail price floor in my opinion; however, even buying at retail is not the worst plan with her.

Sunblast Angel


Current SCG Price - $0.50, Foil $2, Wal-Mart Foil $3
Reason – Commander/Cube

This is another card to not spend actual cold hard cash on. Being a decent sweeper that does something makes it good enough for Commander. It is also a very popular bomb for Cubes. Snagging a few of these for bulk prices is not the worst investment. Just beware of reprint possibilities. It is simple enough to see print in a core set which would destroy any of its potential value. Bonus if you can find the Wal-Mart promo. Not worth much more right now but over time it should separate from the pack.

Sun Titan


Current SCG Price - $4, Foil $10, M11 Prerelease Foil $5
Reason – One of the 5 Titans

All 5 of the Titans will always be worth at least a few bucks. Pick up any version you can find. All will be sought after to fill Cubes and Commander decks.

BLUE

Consecrated Sphinx


Current SCG Price - $5, Foil $13
Reason – broken in half Commander card

Consecrated Sphinx is insanely good in Commander. If it ever drops below $3 that is the cash buy price in my mind. It is just as important to Blue Commander decks as Primeval Titan was to Green Commander decks before it got the ban hammer. Hopefully I do not have to remind anyone that foils of this card are of the highest priority.

Phantasmal Image


Current SCG Price - $6, Foil $15
Reason – The best Clone ever created

There is not much that needs to be said about Phantasmal Image. It is hands down the best Clone variant ever. It should see play in all of the 3 Cs and it can easily see play in Modern if it finds home in the right deck. If it does see consistent Modern play it will be a $10+ card once again. Get these from your local Spike players. They may have a little more room to drop from where they are currently.

Phyrexian Metamorph


Current SCG Price - $5, Foil $7, Release foil $6
Reason – 2nd best Clone, was for a short while the best Clone

Although Phantasmal Image is the better Clone, in the end being able to act as Sculpting Steel as well will separate Phyrexian Metamorph from Phantasmal Image. It is an all-star in Commander and Cube because of the dual nature of its copying abilities. Metamorph was a promo so its value will be slightly affected by that but either way it is a great card to pick up and will most likely never be reprinted again due to its Phyrexian Mana cost.

That is all the time we have for today. Join me tomorrow for the remaining colors as well as Lands. Oh and some guy named Karn shows up too. I'll also be revealing my 2nd favorite pick of the whole rotation. You can possibly buy a whole deck full of them for the price of a pack of basic sleeves!

Insider: Finance of the Future

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Quick poll: Does anyone know what Diaochan, Artful Beauty is currently selling for on eBay?

Well, maybe I should have asked a different question first: Does anyone know what Diaochan, Artful Beauty is (if, of course, you haven’t already moused over the card to read it, which I predict many of you did)?. I, for one, have never seen this card in person, though I will soon, since I just bought one from a friend.

Well, this card is pretty much sold out everywhere on the internet. TCG Player has none, Star City Games has none, Channel Fireball has none, and eBay has one copy – and it’s not even in English!

While an extreme example, this rapid rise in the Artful Beauty is almost a microcosm of Magic’s popularity. As soon as a card is noticed by someone in the Magic community, that person alerts everyone else and the card inevitably goes up in price. It’s unbelievable how quickly this all takes place.

I suppose when a Prerelease makes the news at Forbes.com, you know it’s become big.

But it hasn’t always been like this. And based on how much change the financial aspect of the game has gone through since its inception, I’m anticipating we’ll see additional changes in the future.

What I’m wondering is if we can influence that change. The Quiet Speculation community contains many of the game’s most active speculators. If we pool our ideas and resources, perhaps we can continue to be on that cutting edge. Using a parallel to economics and the stock market, I’ll share some of my ideas after giving a brief history of changes.

In the Beginning…

When the game initially launched, no one really knew about rarity, there was no Pro Tour and there were little rules in the realm of finance. I didn’t start playing Magic until 1997, but I’d imagine the beginning was much like the Wild West – anything goes. Information sharing via the internet was no where near as ubiquitous as it has become today.

Even though people were able to read about winning tournament decks and the like, many players traded with incomplete information. Let’s face it – waiting for the next monthly issue of InQuest Magazine was not really the best way to jump on the next spec.

It actually took many years for true Magic finance to take form. Sure, people were trading for value for a long time, but things have only recently become organized. Even five years ago when the game was celebrating its tenth anniversary, there wasn’t the same level of information sharing with the sole purpose of making money.

Fast Forward

In reality, there were likely multiple stages between 1997 and the present. The game’s popularity rose and fell over the years. But I want the main focus of this article to be on the future. After all, that’s where the opportunities lie.

As a first example, consider the increased quantities of a given card that people are buying. In some cases speculators are buying upwards of 100 of a given card, all in the hopes of cashing out big time. This is a relatively recent development, however, and there really isn’t a great system in place to support this type of speculation.

Let’s say you have a sudden inspiration to speculate on Fulminator Mage because of the unbanning of Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle in Modern. You’ve done all the right research, considered the card’s price history (chart from blacklotusproject.com), and you’re ready to pull the trigger. Since the card is only $2-$3 and it once exceeded $5, there is certainly potential upside should Valakut become a Tier 1 deck in Modern.

So you navigate to TCG Player where many vendors sell their cards, and you browse the list of retailers selling Fulminator Mage.

Which ones do you buy to obtain 100 copies?

Buying all the cheaper copies isn’t cost effective due to shipping costs. You could buy the 43 copies from HotsauceGames, but then you’re paying a full dollar more than you should be. You also take on the risk of a vendor not shipping because they would immediately become suspicious of your purchase for 43 copies of the card.

This caution vendors have adopted, after all, has really only occurred recently because of these speculations. The result is a lose-lose scenario, where the vendor backs out of a deal and the buyer shares the disappointing experience. There must be a better way.

On Wall Street, we could purchase call options to get exposure to larger quantities of a given stock without having to sink a ton of money into the asset. Why couldn’t there be an equivalent in Magic? I could see a major retailer like Star City Games selling options on a particular card to enable speculators to purchase as many copies of a card as they want. And since it’s just options contracts exchanging hands, the hassle of shipping 100 copies of a card is largely avoided.

Of course there are some possible shortcomings to the idea, but, through some modifications, it could be possible. It may take a major retailer to break the barrier, but if Star City Games were to charge fees to buy contracts they could still profit from providing this service.

There’s an App for That

The Smart Phone has completely altered the way people trade cards. It’s for the best, really, because without having immediate access to up-to-the-minute card prices, it’s very possible many players would be afraid of trading because of all the sharks out there. Just pull up your preferred site and grab a value from the internet.

But what if the trade involves many cards? I’ve been in scenarios before where my trade partner and I were exchanging piles of cards. And when I ask him for a value on his Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and neither of us are confident in how much this card has increased in price recently, we get out the phone and look it up (chart courtesy of blacklotusproject.com).

Well, it turns out Star City Games is sold out of the set version of Emrakul at $24.99. So my trade partner makes the request that we value the card at $25. Seems fair at first, but this creates a problem. I valued my Snapcaster Mage using the standard cash value of $20 but, in reality, Star City Games is also out of stock of NM copies of Snapcaster Mage at $24.99. But I’ve already named my value on the blue mage, so now I’m losing five bucks in value because of the discrepancy in price source.

So what’s the logical thing to do? I suggest we just look up all the cards on the same site to ensure values are fair. Next thing you know, my trade partner and I are looking up a dozen cards using Verizon’s “3G” network, which can be inconsistent in the basement of a card shop. Not convenient at all.

Enter my idea: a Smart Phone application that enables you to enter a list of cards in two separate columns and pulls price information from a source of your choice. Better yet, if the app was sophisticated enough so that you could take a picture of a pile of cards and have the app identify the cards’ names and pull price information, that would be even more convenient. Even if it takes a few minutes to load all the information, at least you’re not manually typing away card after card, trying to remember the prices for everything you’ve already looked up.

The technology is there – it would just take sufficient interest to fuel this concept. And as the number of Magic players grows the potential base size for such an app is increasing.

Change Is Coming

These are just a couple ideas that likely require a ton of refining, but my point is that the game has changed drastically since inception in 1993. And the recent surge in player base has also yielded a surge in profitable opportunities. You know this and I know this, and that’s why we’re participating in a community solely dedicated to profiting from the game.

But since the game isn’t set up to support this directly, there are inefficiencies we must navigate through. There doesn’t have to be. With a growing level of support, concepts like the ones I’ve cited here are not so far-fetched.

Perhaps the game is growing too quickly. Perhaps we’re in a Magic bubble that will pop and leave us all holding collections worth 25% of what they were previously worth? It would take is a sudden change in Hasbro’s management that drastically impacts Magic, which is a reality.

But in the meantime, while Magic is growing at an accelerating rate, I’m going to find as many opportunities to profit as possible. And the invention of some tools could really help enable this.

…

Here are some random observations for the week.

  1. I, for one, was shocked to see Emrakul, the Aeons Torn sold out at Star City Games at $24.99. They are still only buying at $12.50, however, so I’m not sure how serious SCG is about this price. There are many copies available online for under $20.
  2. Star City Games is having a sale on Scars of Mirrodin Fast Lands, and their pricing is pretty competitive. If you don’t have your 20 and are interested in acquiring some, you could save some time to just buy your sets from Star City Games. You may end up paying a few bucks more, but it’s incredibly convenient.
  3. Lions Eye Diamond is sold out at $64.99 at Star City Games. Copies can be had at $50 on eBay. But Star City Games isn’t likely to be acquiring any more copies with their current buy price of $35. I suspect that at some point they will up that buy price to $40, and this may bump the price floor on this card a tad. I’m not buying here, but I’m certainly fascinated by the run this card is experiencing despite seeing Tier 1.5 play in Legacy and not much else.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

The Commander Tournament: An Oxymoron

Posted on by Andrew Martin

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I've seen many Commander tournaments offered at various events, but I've never played in one. For many people, me included, the idea of a Commander tournament is an oxymoron.

Commander is supposed to be a super fun, relaxed, friendly and casual format. I find that putting something like this into a tournament setting risks ruining those qualities. My philosophy is that if there is anything at stake, then you are justified playing to win. Often times a From the Vault will be awarded as a prize to the winner of the Commander tournament. This is a pretty sweet prize, so screw having fun, I want to win.

I've spent time on several occasions contemplating how to run a Commander tournament to mitigate this problem. I even tried putting my mathematics degree to good use trying to devise an algorithm for the complicated pairings involved with Commander. But I struggled to figure out a method that upholds the spirit of Commander.

I think a traditional swiss style tournament for Commander is a terrible idea. It just doesn't fit. One major problem is that Commander is meant to be a multiplayer format. How many people are put into a pod for each round, three or four? What happens when there is a weird number of people, like 19? How do you determine a winner? There are so many difficult questions that need to be addressed before a Commander tournament can be run.

So is there a way to put a reasonable Commander tournament together? Whatever the final format, it is imperative that the spirit of Commander is honored and that players can have fun the same way they would in their kitchen table games.

Who is the Winner?

Yay! You've won!

This is one of the more difficult questions to answer. One might simply say, "Last man standing." Intuition says this would work but there is one major flaw. Say there are four people, call them A, B, C, and D. Player A kills players B and C, then player D kills player A. Technically Player D is the last one standing, but player A killed more players. Does this seem fair? I don't think so.

So why not award a point for each opponent a player kills? This brings us to the 'weird number of people' problem. Say there are 19 people. There is no possible way to evenly distribute players into equal-sized pods. In this case the best options would be four pods of four and one pod of three, or five pods of three and one pod of four. In the first option, everyone in the three-man pod is at a disadvantage because they have less players to kill. In the latter case, the four-man pod has the advantage of more opponents to kill.

Another huge problem that can arise during a Commander round is time. I've played four-player games that lasted for several hours. How much time should be allowed for each round? If a pod does go to time, what happens? So many questions!

Commander Pods

Another popular way to run a Commander 'tournament' is the simple four-person pod. If you eliminate a player, you get two packs (or something similar). Sometimes the last man standing may be awarded additional packs. This is a simple way to provide a tournament style feeling for Commander.

But again, there are problems. Something is on the line! If I want to win all the packs, I'll just combo out and take them.

The thing is, to play a fun Commander game with my friends I don't have to pay money. As soon as I'm paying to play, I plan to win. Again the incentives structure defeats the core values of Commander. It's not very fun when someone combos off and kills everyone on turn five.

Commander League

How do you sleep at night?

Several groups have put together a set of rules for a Commander league. In this case, the 'tournament' takes place over many weeks and people accrue points or whatever.

One that I found particularly interesting involved a point system that had nothing to do with actually winning a game. For example, a player could earn a point by controlling twenty or more creature tokens, or by having fifteen or more cards in their hand.

The part that I really enjoyed was that a player could lose points by doing jerk things. A good example was -4 points if you kill a player within the first five turns. I like this idea because it dissuades people from being jerks. A slight problem however, is that different people consider different things to be a jerk move.

I really enjoyed this idea, until I kept scrolling, and scrolling, and scrolling through dozens of different ways to earn points. This level of complexity can cause things to get a bit overwhelming, especially for people new to the league.

A First Pass

If I were to create an organized Commander event it would have to be elegant. My first priority would be to take away the emphasis on killing players. Of course I couldn't eliminate this entirely, since it is the core of Magic.

I would start by integrating the point systems mentioned previously, but to a smaller extent. I would call these 'Feats of Strength'. A player could also earn one point by killing another player, and when someone was eliminated they could give out one point to another player. This would prevent combo decks from winning because the players that died would most likely not give their point to the jerk who comboed.

These would be the fundamental ways to earn points. It would be consistent between rounds and even future tournaments. From here, I would integrate roughly ten feats of strength that could earn players additional points.

Check out my pecs.

Examples:

    Have 30 or more power among your creatures
    Have 100 or more life
    Control 25 or more lands
    Control 10 or more enchantments

These are just a few off the top of my head. Also, each feat could be earned only once per match. It would take some time to figure out exact numbers, but you get the idea.

From here there are two possibilities. The first would be to keep all the feats of strength consistent throughout the entire tournament, the second to have them change between rounds. It would be very important to make sure that a set of feats don't favor specific types of decks. For example, if several feats triggered off of creatures and creature power, it would favor green decks. So these would have to be chosen carefully to ensure it is fair for everyone.

I could also imagine letting players 'draft' from a large pool of feats, say 12 for a four-player pod, made available for that match. I think this would be quite exciting, and it would allow people to play crazy theme decks and draft the feats that synergized with them.

Another possibility would be to have each player submit a favorite opponent after each round and award a sportsmanship prize.

At the end of the tournament (rounds dependent upon number of participants), the player with the most points would win the grand prize. Other prizes could then be distributed to second, third, etc.

Conclusion

It is very difficult devising a tournament setting for Commander. The two elements don't mix easily, but I do think it is (somewhat) possible. There will always be jerks to ruin everyone's fun, guaranteed. It's crucial for the tournament organizer to have a concrete strategy for preventing this.

Another idea is a one-vs-one tournament, but once that happens I don't even think we can call it Commander anymore.

I would appreciate any input you all have on the idea of Commander tournaments. If you have played in one before, what went well? What didn't? Share your stories!

P.S. Next week I will be designing a new deck around a legend from the new Return to Ravnica set and I would like you all to vote on which one I use! (I already have a black/red deck, so [card Rakdos, Lord of Riots]Rakdos[/card] will not be an option.)

Which will it be? Vote in the comments, or send me an email with your choice.

Insider: Getting Started in MTGO Speculating

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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So, you wanna be a speculator?

After reading Quiet Speculation for a while you've decided you want to take the plunge and start speculating. You've sized up the options and for any number of reasons getting your feet wet on MTGO seems like the best idea. Well, you've come to the right place!

Step 1: Start a Tradebook

Set up a spreadsheet that will be your trade book. Do not skip this step! You are going to record all relevant information here. Name of card, purchase price, sell price, dates and motivation for buying. Most of this is just basic accounting, to know when the tix left your collection and the card arrived. When the time comes to sell a card, you'll want to figure out if you made or lost tix in order to do a thorough analysis of your specs.

A subtle point here is the motivation for buying. This is important for new speculators. If you don't have a good reason for taking a position, then you probably shouldn't take it. Once you have a good reason for taking a position, write it down in your trade book beside the cards that you buy. The entry for this card will become a record of what you did and why. Writing down your motivation creates a concrete record of what you were thinking at the time of purchase. Here's an example of a recent pickup with motivation included.

Name Price Quantity Average Cost Total Cost Date Motivation Sell Price Sell Date
Godless Shrine 5.79 4 5.79 23.16 9/25/2012 Hold for Modern Season or Gatecrash --- ---

 

The Fear

It's possible that Godless Shrine goes lower in price before it goes higher. Actually, this is true for just about any trade; there is always the possibility of a loss. And after a few weeks you might take a look at those 'investments' you've made and they might not look like such a good idea anymore.

This is when having your motivation written down can help you overcome the fear. You must trust in your initial judgement and see the trade through to the end. Bailing on a position after a month because the cards you bought are worth less than what you paid for them is a mistake. As long as your original motivation and analysis are unchanged and sound, you must overcome the fear to make a profit.

On the flip side, suppose that Godless Shrine goes up a few tix after a month. Now there's a temptation to sell and take a profit. Taking profits is never a bad thing, right? Wrong!

Usually the best time to sell Modern staples is at the start of the Modern PTQ Season. Selling a month from now might eke out a small profit, but it won't make the best profit. This is no longer about the fear of loss, but the fear of success, which sounds like a strange thing. Success in this case means going against what everyone else is doing and that's why it is hard. Doing something no one else is talking about or interested in takes courage, and it's no different with speculating.

In both the cases presented, taking a loss or making a gain, selling Godless Shrine would be a mistake. Instead of listening to the market, you would be listening to the fear.

Writing down what you are doing and why you are doing it is a tool and a habit that can help you overcome the fear. Once you have your emotions under control, you will realize that you are going to make some good bets and you are going to make some bad bets. With a solid system of record you'll soon know the difference and be on your way to fixing the holes and mistakes in your analysis.

Step 2: Research Research Research

Research what is worth investing in. Read as much as you can. Strategy articles written by the best writers is a must, as are the articles here on QS. Taking part in forum discussions will help as well. No one rolled out of bed being good at Magic or speculating. Everyone had to work at it and learn from others. There are loads of different perspectives and ideas and you'll have to find some that work for you.

Getting a subscription to Star City Games can be worth it and it gives you access to some of the best strategy writers around. Channel Fireball also has many good writers in their stable and has no subscription fee. Reading up on the mothership is a must as well. Be sure to check out what decks have been doing well in online events.

Right now, most writers and players are scrambling to get an early jump on Fall Standard as well as the Modern format for Pro Tour Return to Ravnica. There are many new ideas out there right now, but few good ones and it can be hard to tell which is which.

Last year it took months for Delver to come together as a top deck in Standard. Standard will probably not turn out the way people expect, but there are some things we can predict. Real estate is worth investing in. Powerful effects will often find a home. And Winter is coming.

With Winter comes the Modern PTQ season and so here's some easy research for you. Investing seasonally is a low risk strategy for profiting on MTGO. Combining seasonality with real estate is even lower risk. Godless Shrine at 6 tix or less is a lock for profits, either to sell at the start of Modern Season or to sell during the weeks before the release of Gatecrash. Buy them now and put them away for a few months.

More detailed analysis on buying real estate can be found here in one of my past articles.

Step 3: Acquiring Tix

Get some Event Tickets or tix. This is the de facto online currency and you'll need it to buy cards through bots and the classifieds. These are always for sale through WoTC at the client store for $1 a piece.

Sometimes dealers or players will privately sell tix for a little less than $1, which is a great way to cut costs. You must be cautious though as some people offering to sell tix are actively trying to scam you. Do not buy tix from the classifieds as the risk is unacceptably high. I recommend dealing with known players or reputable dealers, or else just sticking to the official store.

Time to Buy?

At this point, you might be ready to pull the trigger on a position. The trade book is set up, there's a nice target sitting out there in Godless Shrine, and there are tix sitting in your account.

Now is the time to take a breath and look for the lowest prices. The MTGO market is quite competitive but there are ways to save a few tix when looking to establish a position. Next time will be an in-depth look at tracking down a good price, taking the plunge on a first purchase and an outline of how to sell when the time is right.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

View More By Matthew Lewis

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, MTGOTagged 15 Comments on Insider: Getting Started in MTGO Speculating

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Good Luck, High Five! Episode 4: Stabcity, Georgia

Posted on by Mike Hawthorne

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"Good Luck, High Five!" is back with another hilarious and insightful podcast! This week Forrest disparages Mike and Ryan as they discuss their misadventures in Atlanta and discuss past and future travel.

Download here. (right click, save as.)

(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

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