menu

Insider: How to Drive Sales

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last week I discussed some valuable strategies for locating bargains throughout the realms of the internet without taking on much risk. Wise eBay searches, desperate Cardshark sellers and patient browsing through MOTL were all recommendations.

Some readers even commented with additional suggestions, such as identifying underpriced EDH foils at your local gaming stores.

After all these purchases are made, the next logical step is to unload these cards for profit. There are a vast number of strategies people will implement for selling their cards. I will not pretend that my strategy is the optimal one.

Instead, my approach will be outlined below in a categorical way, with optimal opportunities falling within each subset depending on an array of circumstances. In the end, selling is all driven by your personal goals and is not “one size fits all”. So I will illustrate some of my own goals.

Inventory Costs Money

Companies on Wall Street are constantly striving to reduce inventory. There’s a very good reason for this – inventories cost money. They need to be maintained, kept organized and stored in a particular space. This is true no matter what the items are for sale.

(Picture courtesy of http://managementstudyguide.com/inventory-costs.htm)

Maintaining an inventory of Magic Cards likewise has associated costs. I have only so many pages in a binder without risking overstuffing them. Additionally, holding value in terms of cards is much less liquid than holding actual cash. Thus, opportunity cost is a factor. Finally, I spend hours a month sorting and resorting my stock to make sure my binders are organized satisfactorily and my sales list is up to date.

Bearing this in mind, my primary objective with selling cards is to turn over inventory as fluidly and consistently as possible. Again, this is driven by my realization, that like in the stock market, holding a card indefinitely is often a poor investment choice. Sure, in MTG there may be exceptions, such as some cards I expect will rise in value over time, but these cards only make up a small portion of my diverse portfolio – the majority of cards are maximized if sold immediately.

With this context in mind, let me now dive into a few different approaches to selling cards. With each approach I’ll provide a synopsis of strategy along with pros and cons.


(Picture courtesy of http://yumclips.com/show/traft)

First Stop: MOTL

When it comes to buying, MOTL is often towards the bottom of my priority list. Sifting through endless lists of overpriced cards is not the most fruitful task. Selling, on the other hand, is ideal with this online site.

You have endless freedoms here. You can set your own prices, list as many cards as you’d like and set up a set of personal rules – all with no fees and no unreasonable limits.

Everyone has their own strategies for grouping cards and establishing prices. Again, mine is likely not fully optimized. But in achieving my goal of holding cards in inventory for small amounts of time, my approach works rather well.

I begin by sorting my cards by format, then I list the pricier cards towards the top – they are first ones seen and most likely to be scooped up. They also attract attention, so that prospective buyers will see that you have cards worth browsing. Finally, I set competitive prices.

Because I’m not a retailer, I simply cannot expect to achieve 100% margins. I can attempt to buy cards at Star City Games’ buylist prices all day, but I would accumulate very little. Likewise, selling at retail prices on MOTL will only gain you insults and disrespect (harsh world!). Therefore, when looking to quickly flip cards I’ve acquired at bargain prices, I seek to price my cards to match some of the cheapest completed eBay listings. Profits will never be fully maximized (one downside to MOTL) but recall that my goal is quick, small profits to turn over inventory.

This, I feel, is a sweet spot for pricing cards I am anxious to sell. I win because even if I listed an auction on eBay and it closed higher, fees would not make the endeavor worthwhile. Buyers win because they don’t have to navigate through endless eBay auctions and lose bid after bid until they achieve this minimal price. I have sold many cards rapidly using this technique.

As a quick aside, this is generally my price ceiling when buying cards. If I can acquire cards below the lower quartile of eBay ended auctions, I am inclined to pull the trigger. Now you can appreciate why this is my price point for buying – it enables me the most opportunity to make a little profit. And since I’m not seeking to make a full fledged living from this endeavor, I am more than happy with accepting a 10% profit margin if it means I’ve sold the card immediately. This to me is far more valuable than holding a card for months until I’ve improved my margins to 20%.

Twitter – (yes you can sell cards through Twitter)

Sometimes my desire to sell a particular card is even more pressing. Perhaps I’ve acquired a card at an incredibly cheap price. Perhaps I’ve speculated on a couple cards and they are at a price peak. Or perhaps I’ve failed at selling cards on MOTL and I really need to unload them.

In all these cases, I turn to Twitter as a means of selling instantaneously. Like MOTL, it is completely free to sell via Twitter and there are no unreasonable limits to what you can sell. Of course, if your prices are not highly competitive, you’re likely to be ignored (or worse, unfollowed). Therefore you need to be careful in how you implement this venue for selling cards.

First, I do a bit of research to decide upon a price. The cost for your “deal of the day” should be cheaper than any major online venue, perhaps even including eBay. This will ensure the cards will sell. Also, it helps to keep the transaction simple – after all, you only have 140 characters to work with. A recent tweet of mine that earned a sale was:

I know that Standard rotation is approaching, and I don’t want to be stuck holding these niche cards for long. Therefore, I decided a small loss was acceptable here if I could earn a quick sale. The cards had been listed for a week on MOTL with no takers, and such a quick sale on eBay would have meant a larger loss due to fees. I tried Twitter, and sure enough within the hour the cards were sold.

Of course having followers helps – this is a downside to using Twitter. But do a few modest giveaways and make a few quick sale purchases, and you’ll have a couple hundred followers before you know it!

Selling Through eBay – A Last Resort

Ebay will generally side with buyers when settling any disagreement between buyer and seller – no matter what the issue is with the transaction. Fees are paid solely by buyers. With these two downsides to eBay, I only sell cards on this venue as a last resort.

Usually, if my competitively priced cards aren’t selling on MOTL or Twitter, and I see that eBay completed auctions are closing more than 10% above my asking price, I take a chance on eBay. I try to sell through this auction site only when I can at least break even after fees.

As you can imagine, this is a rare occurrence. Sometimes obscure items are best sold on eBay. For example, I recently sold a sealed Coldsnap Booster Box through eBay:


Notice how I structured this listing: a) I listed the item as an auction so I did not have to pay listing fees, b) I set the starting bid price around my desired sell price, so as to avoid selling the item too cheaply yet not having to use a reserve, and c) I charge a fair shipping price so I don’t lose money or pay more fees by offering free shipping.

This is the only way I sell on eBay these days, and it seems to work fairly well when the need arises. It’s not optimal, but it does maximize your chances of selling the item because you are reaching the largest audience.

Selling vs. Holding – You Decide

As I mentioned before, I’d prefer selling for a small loss to holding cards for an unknown period of time. The sooner I obtain additional cash, the sooner I can seek out new bargains to profit from.

My approach to selling cards online should reflect this overall objective. If your preference is to maximize profit margins on your cards, be prepared to hold inventory for much longer. For some, that is acceptable. For me, opportunity cost is a real factor and I recognize the expenses incurred from holding inventory. Therefore, I strive to sell my inventory rapidly. The result is a win-win scenario, where I can flip my inventory at a rapid pace while offering competitive prices to prospective buyers.

Avatar photo

Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

View More By Sigmund Ausfresser

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Special4 Comments on Insider: How to Drive Sales

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

The Changing Face of Birthing Pod

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

An old power has recently returned to Standard. Though you may not know it from its price tag ($3), Birthing Pod is back in force and looks like it’s here to stay.

The Birthing Pod list that top-eighted Pro Tour Dark Ascension seemed to quietly escape everyone’s notice. Lately though, Pod has put up a string of high finishes including a win at the Star City Games Invitational in Baltimore. Pros such as Brian Kibler, who himself piloted a Pod deck to 10th place in Baltimore, have begun to write about the deck.

In short, Birthing Pod is the real deal.

About a month ago I wrote an article advocating for Birthing Pod, which you can read here. Today I'll talk about the reasons for Pod's resurgence and walk you through a couple lists.

Shifting Position in the Metagame

What caused Birthing Pod to jump from fringe tier-two status to competitive all-star in so short a time?

Answering this question will help us to better understand why decks appear or resurface when they do. Changes in the metagame do not develop haphazardly, but rather as a natural product of earlier developments. Understanding how this process works can give you a huge leg up on the competition when it comes to deck selection.

The Standard metagame is often shaped by a series of shifts that seem to cascade from one to the next. We can identify one of these chain reactions in recent developments that ultimately worked to the benefit of Pod decks.

It began with Zombies’ sharp rise in popularity, which sent Wolf Run into a downward spiral because of its terrible Zombies matchup. As fewer Wolf Run decks made an appearance, their natural prey became more viable. This set the stage for Birthing Pod, now free from the threat of its worst match-up, to become a major contender.

Of course, the situation could just as easily shift further to undermine Pod strategies once again. For example, if Zombies were to decrease in numbers, Pod may be adversely affected.

That being said, I don’t think Zombies is likely to drop significantly in popularity unless Avacyn Restored really shakes things up. Tribal decks always enjoy a strong following which will carry the deck even if it loses some of its power.

The takeaway here is the importance of monitoring the metagame carefully when making deck choices. A deck that proved viable in the past may be a poor choice right now. Alternately, a deck that was underpowered before may be set up for a revival.

Before you rush in to commit to a particular strategy, make sure you’ve considered these possibilities.

Some Successful Decklists

Several different takes on Birthing Pod have recently put up good results. Here are a few to give you an idea:

Max Tietze's Naya Pod
Star City Games Invitational – 1st Place

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Strangleroot Geist
1 Viridian Emissary
3 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Acidic Slime
1 Archon of Justice
1 Geist-Honored Monk
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Sun Titan
1 Inferno Titan
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Spells

1 Oblivion Ring
3 Green Suns Zenith
4 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
2 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

1 Acidic Slime
2 Hero of Bladehold
2 Oblivion Ring
2 Act of Aggression
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Celestial Purge
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Arc Trail

Brian Kibler's Naya Pod
Star City Games Invitational – 10th Place

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Llanowar Elves
3 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Acidic Slime
1 Vorapede
1 Inferno Titan

Spells

2 Oblivion Ring
2 Garruk Relentless
1 Green Suns Zenith
2 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
3 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
2 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

1 Grafdiggers Cage
3 Daybreak Ranger
2 Hero of Bladehold
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Celestial Purge
1 Combust
2 Ray of Revelation
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Both of these decks tend toward the aggressive side of the spectrum and are capable of applying lots of pressure. They are also designed to function consistently even without a Birthing Pod.

Strangleroot Geist, Blade Splicer and Huntmaster of the Fells are the core creatures. They appear in multiples because you want to draw them early and often.

The singleton creatures, obviously useful as tutor targets and Pod sacrifices, are also strong enough in their own right to be reasonable draws. The risk of drawing too many high-cost creatures is offset by a plentiful supply of mana acceleration.

Finally, note that both decks contain multiple copies of Gavony Township. This land is powerful enough to see play in Modern and certainly adds a lot of value here too.

The decks differ in a few significant ways.

First of all, Kibler’s mana curve is much lower, stopping at a mere single six-drop where Tietze has three sixes and one seven.

Kibler’s build seems to respond to a philosophy of an aggro deck that happens to have Birthing Pod in it. The inclusion of only two copies of Pod also points in this direction.

Another major difference, which may not seem that important at first glance, is the presence of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Between his maindeck and sideboard Kibler has access to the full set, whereas Tietze did not include the card at all. I think Thalia is an important inclusion as she does a lot to improve several matchups.

Finally, Kibler has access to Vorapede, which beats up on control opponents effectively.

Settling on a Build

In general I like the direction Kibler has taken the deck in, so I’ll start there for my version. There are just a few things I would change.

To begin with, I don’t think Garruk Relentless belongs in the deck. Once flipped, he does get to search up the various tutor targets, but he’s relatively clunky and doesn’t synergize with Birthing Pod itself.

If I were going to run a planeswalker, I would choose Gideon Jura instead. Gideon seems to do Garruk’s job better and will have a much larger impact on the aggressive matchups.

The next change I would make is to trim the number of one-mana accelerants. With a low curve and lots of two-drops, the deck will be less reliant on acceleration. The recent resurgence of Gut Shot is another reason to shy away from running a glut of vulnerable X/1s.

There are a couple cards absent from both lists that I feel are too good not to include.

The first is Hellrider. Much like Gavony Township, Hellrider makes all your random dorks better and provides much needed reach in the late game. If you can land a Huntmaster of the Fells and follow it up by podding Blade Splicer into Hellrider you can smash for a boatload of damage. One copy should suffice to add this dimension to the deck.

The other card that has impressed me is Lead the Stampede. It’s common to draw three or four cards off of Lead the Stampede, which lets you overwhelm your opponent in a game stall. That kind of card advantage is hard to come by in Standard unless you’re casting Consecrated Sphinx.

Here’s how I would build Birthing Pod:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Hellrider
1 Acidic Slime
1 Vorapede
1 Inferno Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine

Spells

2 Oblivion Ring
2 Lead the Stampede
3 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
2 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

4 Tectonic Rift
2 Gideon Jura
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Ray of Revelation
1 Grafdiggers Cage
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Daybreak Ranger

As you can see, my list is a hybrid of the two decks above, but a little closer to Kibler’s.

The aggressive curve here is complemented by several ways to disrupt your opponent. The [card Oblivion Ring]Oblivion Rings[/card] get you out of a lot of tough situations and come highly recommended. As for [card Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]Thalia[/card], I think three is the right number but I could see cutting one to make room for something else.

The [card Tectonic Rift]Tectonic Rifts[/card] in the board are my tech for the Wolf Run matchup. Right now I’m bringing them in to replace Thalia, which becomes worse post-board in the face of their extra removal.

While it may seem like a crazy choice, I can assure you Tectonic Rift has tested quite well. In addition to setting them back a turn by destroying a land, it can set up an alpha strike through any number of blockers.

The Final Touches

One of the cool things about Birthing Pod decks is how they can be customized to fit different play styles.

My version aims to be as aggressive as possible and use Pod to push through damage in the later turns, but you could just as easily build Pod to occupy a more controlling role.

Several of the one-ofs can also be switched out for other options. At each point on the curve there are a large number of viable creatures that advance different strategies. When changing things up, just remember to keep in mind your overall game plan and include the creatures that work best towards that goal.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of Birthing Pod!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Applying The System

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last week, I detailed the method that Kelly and I have used to make hundreds while minimizing our risk. It's a growing process and we've made several mistakes along with plenty of successes. This week, I'll go over some of our previous purchases, along with some predictions for good cards to pick up.

You've got to cover your spread

One of the things that Kelly and I had to learn early on was to protect our profits from really wild speculation. This means that you should be very wary of grabbing things with zero retail value. When we saw Caleb Durward's R/W deck, we were really excited about both Buried Ruin and Razor Hippogriff. Excited to the tune of grabbing 242 Hippogriffs at three pennies apiece. That was $7.26 that we just threw away, because the birds had no resale value, nor do they have any now. If Caleb had T8ed, we could have bought them then - it's an uncommon and there would have been infinite copies still available. As it was, the deck never took off and we blew money that we'd already made on other margins. I endorse taking really crazy risks on cards sometimes, but this was one that didn't pay off and had little chance of paying off.

In this instance, we didn't cover our losses to manage our risk. That $7.26 doesn't look like much, but that amount is scary because it represents undisciplined speculating that was 100% risk. If you're picking up a few different cards on an order and you don't stick to the 40% risk that I talked about last week, you can end up obliterating real gains with long shots.

Decide whether to get out, and get out quickly.

Here's another cautionary tale. When we bought those Hippogriffs, we also jumped onto Buried Ruin. At the time, it was a quarter and it could sell back for 20 cents. That's an incredible margin - only 20% between its buy and sell price! We were correct in grabbing it at the time; Caleb's deck really depended on the Ruins, so if it did well, we would turn a nice profit. But unfortunately, RW Control isn't exactly tearing up the tables right now. When the deck did not perform well on the weekend of PT: DKA, we should have gotten rid of what we'd sunk into them at a 20% loss. Ruins are down to about 10 cents apiece on buylists, meaning we are now out 60% of what we put into them.

As a postscript, we are holding onto the Ruins at this point, since we don't think they'll ever sell for less than ten cents. If we stuck to our guns and cleared out what didn't gain, we would have still made plenty of money and we would have recovered some of what we have now lost. The chance to make up the money we lost gets smaller by the day, though.

Keep a list of good sources for buying and selling.

You need to work with accurate information. Quiet Speculation is developing some excellent pricing software - if you see Kelly at an event, have him show you our beta iPhone app - but right now, readers must work a little harder for good info. I use TCGPlayer for buy prices; they are very upfront about the cost of shipping cards and you can assemble orders from multiple stores on the site and only pay once. They also have some crazy voodoo gris-gris that prevents most of our big orders from getting stopped because we're clearing people out of cards. I've tried to assemble a good selection of buylists, and it's worth checking Troll & Toad, Coolstuffinc and StrikeZone. I usually end up just going to BidWicket and checking buy prices from stores on there. It's not the prettiest site, but it typically does have the highest buy prices.

Solid picks and analysis

Drogskol Captain Buy: 0.80/sell 0.50 37.5% margin

I know that we've talked about these for awhile and while they didn't pick up after PT:DKA like I thought they would, I still believe that this lord is a steal at under a dollar. Lingering Souls is a real mistake of a card and this makes it much better. Duplicating this with Phantasmal Image is really bonkers, too. It hasn't seen a huge amount of play, but Tom Martell just T8'd PT: SLC today with what is basically an updated version of Jon Finkel's Esper Spirits deck. While a single Spirit token isn't great these days, a couple spirits with Vault of the Archangel backup is worth talking about. We're sitting on these for October when Ratchet Bomb rotates, but they might jump sooner when people are looking for more UW Delver tech.

Dungeon Geists Buy: $3.00/Sell $2.25 25% margin

Like I mentioned last week, hot cards often have really low margins. simplistic_1 corroborated this in the response to the article last week - as a buyer for a store, he's willing to pay more for hot standard cards because he knows they'll sell. Dungeon Geists is an unlikely standard hit (and one that we called at $1.00, by the way!) and it's an important facet of the Delver mirrors. UW Delver decks lack good removal, so a Geist locking down their guy and swinging in the air for three damage is pretty solid. I'm reminder of Sower of Temptation in that regard. This isn't as good as Sower, but it's still incredible. At a 25% margin, we've just got to see this hit about $5.00 for this bet to really sing. PT:SLC had Delvers in over half of the decks present and we're a month from a new set, so Geists could really take center stage soon.

I wish I could call a big pile of good cards right now, but Standard is just the Delver deck and the anti-Delver deck at the moment, with occasional Zombies tossed in. There are few interesting changes, which is why we were not exactly blowing up your inboxes with hot tech from Salt Lake City this weekend. In May, Avacyn Restored will come out and the whole staff of QS is looking forward to a changing Standard environment. Cards like Hellrider and Lingering Souls are otherwise-solid bets, but they don't meet the 40% margin threshold that we're looking for with short-term speculation.

As always, I am happy to answer questions in the feedback!

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

View More By Douglas Linn

Posted in Finance, Free Insider, SpecialTagged , , , , , , , Leave a Comment on Insider: Applying The System

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

CommanderCast S5E12 | Call-InFerno Mk. 4

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The heaven and earth part to make way for a union of manly souls, and the fire burns bright across the internet, torching through your speakers! It's the Call-InFerno! In another audience-participation episode of CommanderCast, Andy and Donovan are joined by some brave Commander players who jump onto the audioscape adventure though the annals of EDH for another variety episode that might result in excessive enlightenment! A blitz-format roundtable with five topics discussed for roughly fifteen minutes each.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E11 | Break All The Rules

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

This week's podcast is full of rules bending, breaking, loopholing, and more. It's CommanderCast S5E11 with guest host Scott Holmes! From the standard roster, Andy is joined by Byron and Sean for another installment in Audience Appreciation Month where we discuss topics generated by the audience.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E10 | The Power of the Intertron

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's CommanderCast S5E10, which is another episode in the continuing audience appreciation month. To keep up appearances, we've asked Andrew Magrini to help spit fire into the Knowledge Pool of Commander players everywhere. Also joining me on the journey of discovery is Scott from the Eh Team and together the three of us discuss a variety of audience-provided topics, including the power of the internet, ways to handle dead card in hand, and more.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E9 | Don’t Wreck Yourself

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's the beginning of audience appreciation month and CommanderCast and to kick things off we have a very active member of the CommanderCast community, Thomas, lending us his silky-smooth New Zealand accent and wealth of Commander-related experience and knowledge. With Brionne and Byron filling out the rest of the team, we plunge into a show of entirely audience-generated topics and answer questions like "are Peek effects worthwhile?" and "why is Gaddock Teeg such a d!ck?" Unfortunately, even we can't answer that last one.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

Insider: Digging up the Dark Ascension Set Review

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It’s that time again! That time when I look back on my set review and see how I stacked up this time around. I really like writing these articles (and believe I was one of the first to begin reviewing my predictions) because it keeps me accountable for the advice I give out. And I take seriously how I review a set.

The goal is that I don’t need a gimmick like a Magic 8-Ball or dice or anything else to make my reviews interesting to read. I want to get in, touch on the important cards, and get out, hopefully making us all some money along the way.

As usual when reviewing, I’ll use Star City Games prices and hit upon the big cards from the set. I also wanted to include some reference charts from Black Lotus Project, but it looks like the site is having some trouble with Dark Ascension cards, so that's not an option for now.

Let’s see how I fared in that endeavor this time around.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed

Then: “This card seems fairly powerful, and is definitely going into my Commander deck, but I don’t see much here at $8, at least for now. It doesn’t really compare favorably to Grave Titan or Massacre Wurm at six mana. Maybe after rotation it will be more playable, but the price is going to come down in the meantime.”

Now: Down to $6, with EDH demand keeping it somewhat up there. Fairly easy call on this one, since it wasn’t likely going to see any Constructed play right away. That may change post-rotation, but as it stands this card presents a cool EDH combo with Triskelion and not much else. Because of that reason, this thing will stay not-free for a long time and would be primed for a spike if it ever saw Constructed play after the Titans rotate.

Vorapede

Then: “Another one that feels too overpriced coming out of the gates at $7.50. The thing is, I do think this card is powerful, and Mono-Green has some absurd creatures at every point along the curve (Strangleroot Geist into Dungrove into Thrun into Vorapede or Garruk). If such a deck were to become a thing, this card could easily jump past $10. That said, pick them up if you can get them cheap, but don’t feel bad trading them away at their current price.”

Now: As expected, this has fallen. What’s not expected is that it’s only to $7. It sees occasional play in Pod, but never as more than a one or two-of. Like all the Mythics on this list, its price will stay inflated with regards to Mythics from other second sets, like Mirrodin Besieged. That said, I’m not sure how much casual appeal this would have, so once it rotates out of Standard its price may not even stay as high long-term as something like Mikaeus.

Falkenrath Aristocrat

Then: “I’m really up in the air on this card. I’m pretty sure it’s going to show up in Standard at some point, but like some of the other cards on this list, I see it going down before it will ever go higher. If/when it drops to $2-3 after not seeing play, it will likely be a solid pickup for next year’s Standard.”

Now: Still going for $6, though there are nearly 100 in stock. It’s possible the price drop on these hasn’t really hit SCG yet, or they’re already pricing in the fact that these won’t be opened for much longer. Either way, you can find these for half that on the trade floor, and there’s no reason to not pick up a few now in preparation for next year.

Havengul Lich

Then: “Overhyped for now. This card is preselling at $15 and that’s too high. Even if it began to see play somewhere, it likely won’t be as a four-of, though its synergy with Heartless Summoning will keep people on this card.

I’m pretty sure this card isn’t going to see much play in the next few months since such a deck seems difficult to tune quickly, and will half in price. At that point we may re-examine based on where the metagame is at.”

Now: Down to $10 as expected. This does provide a sweet combo and all that in Standard, but $15 is hard to maintain for a card barely seeing play. It’s just too expensive to do much with in play to maintain that price. You don’t really want to cast it until you can activate it, but by the time you have that much mana there are far better things to do.

Huntmaster of the Fells

Then: “Opinions are all over the place on this card, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say it will make an impact on Standard. The only question is when that impact will be felt.

I like what this thing does, as it passes the way-too-important Vapor Snag test. The two life isn’t irrelevant in a field of Delvers pecking at you, and the 2/2 body it leaves behind will be useful.

And that’s if it never transforms. If it does ever flip, it gets real really fast. The power level is there on this card, and its buddy Daybreak Ranger may finally get a chance to shine in the next few months. I do think there will be a dip in this card’s price, but I’m definitely okay with targeting it in trades once it dips below $10.”

Now: Well, this thing dipped to $10, then spiked hard to $30 after the Pro Tour, which I actually called the week before the Tour happened. Hope you went hard on these and let me make you some money, since they go for $25 now and don’t see many signs of slowing down post-rotation.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Then: “And this is where the true chase card of the set comes in.

I’m pretty sure BW tokens is a very real deck (and has felt insane at times in testing), and especially so once Ratchet Bomb rotates (by the way, pick that up this weekend).

He’s $55 right now, and like it or not, our buddy Jace is the closest comparison based on set specifics alone (since Worldwake and Dark Ascension are in the same boat in that regard). Sorin is obviously no Jace (since nothing is), but he compares decently with other four-mana Planeswalker like Ajani Vengeant and Elspeth, Knight Errant. I believe he’s going to be more similar to the former pair than to our much-maligned buddy Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas.

$55 isn’t sustainable long-term, but I don’t see him dropping like a rock either. Liliana still commands a $30 pricetag, and I can’t see Sorin going lower than that anytime soon. I feel like $35-40 is going to be a fair price for this guy in a few months, so keep that in mind if you bust him this weekend. While he isn’t going to sustain higher prices than what he has now, it won’t be all that easy to pick more up later.”

Now: $30 on SCG, and cheaper than Liliana, which is interesting. Most of this guy’s drop came from the fact that everyone showed up with infinite Ratchet Bombs the week after he was printed, which kept his playability down. Since then he has begun to crop up in more and more decks, so it’s good to see my initial price target was fairly close, if not 100% spot-on.

Thaila, Guardian of Thraben

Then: “This is pre-selling at $4, and I think that’s a reasonable price. I can see this being a fairly real card in Standard, and don’t think it falls below $2-3 during its run in Standard. It also has the potential to spike to $6-7 after a good weekend when the set is new, so keep that in mind.

I’m also not sure where this thing fits in among older formats, so keep an eye on that, as it will affect its price (especially foils) heavily.”

Now: Up to $5 at SCG, making an impact just as we expected. It’s made waves in Modern and especially Legacy, where it and Scavenging Ooze have made Maverick the best deck in the format. If you haven’t looked at the Prediction Tracker lately, you’ll see that this is one of my favorite speculation targets right now. Grab these at $3-4 in trade and you’ll likely double your money in six months to a year.

Dungeon Geists

Then: “This card seems to be getting heavily hyped in the last few days. While I can see why, I also don’t think there’s a ton here. Four mana for a creature is a lot in the type of UW Delver deck it would seem to best fit into. They are practically free right now ($1 SCG price), so it can’t hurt to grab a few this weekend, but I don’t suggest going deep.”

Now: $4 on SCG. While I’m glad I didn’t miss this card entirely, I didn’t exactly tell you to go out and buy them all either. I overlooked the interaction with the Captain and I consider this my biggest miss of the set, though I’m glad I picked up a few and had it included.

Geralf's Messenger

Then: “$4 on SCG right now, even though names like Patrick Chapin have advocate for the card. Yes, the mana cost is extremely prohibitive, but people love two things nowadays — Mono-Black and Zombies. This thing is both, not to mention being powerful in its own right.

One weekend is all it takes for this card to jump to $8. I like grabbing these this weekend. What makes this card attractive is that it likely shows up in all the same places Gravecrawler does, but is still $3 cheaper.”

Now: $10 on SCG. Nailed this one and glad I did. I’ve made a lot of money flipping Messengers, and I consider it a good place to continue to put your money in for the next year. Both this and its buddy Gravecrawler will continue to be popular for the next year-and-a-half, and there aren’t going to be many more opened.

Hellrider

Then: “This is what I call reach for red decks. It’s similar to Hero of Oxid Ridge except it doesn’t matter if your guys are blocked. While the upside of the Hero isn’t here for Hellrider, the downside isn’t much either, since it’s so cheap right now ($2 on SCG). Pick these up for a buck this weekend if you can, it’s a pretty low-risk move.”

Now: $3 on SCG, though it was at $4 for a while. Pretty much accurate on this one, and it’s still heavily played in Block, which bodes well for next year.

Grafdigger's Cage

Then: “Absolutely hate this card. I feel like it’s way too wide of a hate card, even if its not as good as people initially thought. It’s still $10 on SCG, but you can find it significantly cheaper elsewhere.

I’m pretty sure this will come down as far as $4-6 during its run in Standard and as people realize it’s not as oppressive as they thought. But one thing that won’t come down much is the foil price of this card, since it apparently tears up the Vintage scene (so I’m told from trusted sources). The foil retails for $30 on SCG, but you can probably snap these up for half that this weekend, since most people aren’t clued into the Vintage scene.”

Now: $4. I remember the week after the set released there was a guy at my LGS adamantly claiming this would stay $8-10 during its run in Standard, even arguing with me when I explained to him that 1) it’s a sideboard card and supply and demand would never be more out of sync than they were at the time, and 2) I do this for a living. Whatever, guess we’ve seen who won that argument. 😉

Interestingly, the foil price is down to $10 as this card has turned out to be even less oppressive than I originally thought. Turns out foil prices on in-print Rares can only go so far, no matter how good it allegedly is for the 10 or so people who play Vintage.

Wrap Up

I have to say I’m very proud of myself for this set review. I didn’t miss anything wildly important, and even though I wasn’t huge on Dungeon Geists, I still made note of it rather than ignoring it completely. The fact that I nailed Messenger, Cage and Huntmaster, three of the most-talked about cards during spoiler season, is just icing on the cake.

We’ll be back before too long with the review for Avacyn Restored, and I hope we do as well then!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Block and Standard Winners

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

There are only moments remaining. The time ticks down on the season of Modern, then begins a shift. We have only limited time before the next season begins and we must be ready for it. PTQ Season will be Standard, and there will be a Block Constructed Pro-Tour, as well as some Block Constructed GPs domestically, at least.

I’ve desleeved my Splinter Twin deck, kept the pieces I need for next year, but the rest? I’m trading it out for Standard staples. And you should do the same.

Block Constructed:

While a format that’s hard to make much money on in paper cards, there is a serious market for this format on MTGO.

Wednesday is the first day post-banning of Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls. This format was completely dominated by a tokens deck (Either WBr or WBg) and the anti-tokens Jund deck.

Now that the tokens deck is all but gone, the aggro decks will need to run more of a Human centric base, and likely still use Hellrider as a finisher.

I’d also expect a newer G/x aggro deck to appear, possible including Strangleroot Geist. He’s a card I’m going to buy into on MTGO, is currently under a quarter, and could see some quick gains.

Curse of Death’s Hold was a must include against the Tokens decks, and even though the tokens decks are now mostly banned, I expect Curse of Death’s Hold to continue to be the best anti-aggro card, and since the aggro decks aren’t so over powered (but likely still very good), this card may see a surge of popularity.

Also, keep in mind,that the next Pro Tour is Block Constructed, but will include the new Avacyn Restored, so pros may be testing on MTGO now, but it's hard to know what the format will look like without the newest set online.

Standard:

It’s of course the “year-round” format, but it’s also due for a PTQ season starting after the next Pro-Tour in only a few weeks. Not to mention with a large set being added to the mix, we should see some new cards and strategies emerge with still a couple of weeks until spoilers hit the scene.

In the meantime we get to move our trade stock from Modern to Standard. Some of the cards I’ve been targeting are listed below with some explanations, and I’ve updated the Prediction Tracker to reflect these.

Gideon Jura

He is currently a $7 card, which is absurdly low for a Planeswalker that regularly sees play. Sure, he’s been printed twice, but the format is nearly all aggro, and last time that happened a solid U/W control deck popped up (remember Worlds?) to swoop the entire format.

Gideon is a monster against creature decks, even the aggro-control Delver of Secrets deck has issues with one that’s resolved. Especially when PTQ season rolls around and grinders are actually giving attention to Standard, there’s no doubt in my mind a U/W control deck will reemerge.

I think it’s a really strong play to buy into these fairly deep, but do it soon. I’ll be happy to make $5 or more dollars on this, but its ceiling is probably as high as $17. I rarely make a big move on expensive cards like this but it does have all the features I look for in speculation: Low Risk, because it really can’t drop anymore than it already has, even if it sees another reprinting, and High Reward because it could easily double in value or more.

Witchbane Orb

This is more of a “pet-card” speculation, so I’ll add that full disclosure portion first. However, giving yourself hexproof is a pretty desirable card right now. It’s an amazing sideboard option against all of the reach that Zombie and RDW can make use of, and it’s also a great card for shutting down U/B control’s win conditions like Nephalia Drownyard, Karn Liberated, Liliana of the Veil and any discard spells they may have access to in the sideboard.

There’s also the fact that it can destroy any number of Curses attached to you and prevent them from being cast later. This card is currently a bulk rare, so, once again, zero risk because it can’t fall. If it turns out to be one of the Sideboard cards people are scrounging for come PTQ season you’ll be able to leverage that stock at dealer booths or in trades.

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

I’ve missed the mark on this guy before, but man he’s cheap. With few counterspells are floating around lately, and with how easily Tezzeret style control decks chomp up creature decks, I’m surprised we haven’t seen one pop up.

If one does, it quickly gets smashed by other control decks, so if you do move in on this guy, be diligent to move him out as soon as you can if he spikes. I only really see him going up to maybe $15 (and he’s currently $10-11) so may not be worth a big push, but if you currently own any, or you’re able to find good deals in trades, it can’t hurt to stash these.

Until Next Week

I like to use the time between seasons to reorganize my collection and reassess my goals for the next season. As I’m doing this over the next couple of weeks I’ll point out tactics that I find useful as well as any other gems I find in boxes that have been stored away as bulk.

Until next week!
Chad Havas

Brainstorm Brewery #3

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery, hosted by Corbin Hosler, Ryan Bushard and Marcel is up on MTGcast.com! This is the first and only financial podcast out there, and you can listen to it here.

http://www.mtgcast.com/?p=24254

Brainstorm Brewery #3 – The Mavericks of Tron

“Top quality information direct from the source, pure uncut!”
Finance Corner

– Shout Out to @OreoCorp for placing 76th at GP Mexico!!!

– SCG Innovational with Naya Pod winning in standard and Maverick winning in Legacy.  In fact Maverick was 6 of the deck in the top 8 of Legacy open. .

– Scavenging Ooze keeps rising in price as a 3-of in Maverick. Is it time to buy Counterpunch at MSRP or not?

– RG Tron is looking to break Modern with consistent turn 3-4 Karn sealing the game, we talk about its impact and potential banning.

– Please send in card picks for the “What’s It Worth?” section by emailing us.

– Check out the website BrainstormBrewery.com

Brew Pub


– Corbin can't help but want to cast Emrakul as quickly as possible with his Modern deck brew.

– Ryan continues to evolving his RG agro/self-mill block deck, anticipating the changes to the meta with the recent bannings.

– Marcel takes the Werewolves deck from Daily MTG for a spin and is not disappointed.

What?s It Worth?

– A new segment where listeners attempt to stump the hosts as they try to guess the prices of random cards. Please send in your picks for next week via our email.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Free, PodcastTagged , , , , , , , , 1 Comment on Brainstorm Brewery #3

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: How to Find a Bargain

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Dealing in cards on Magic: the Gathering Online Trading League (MOTL) is war. Often times, MOTL is where sharks go to make profits when they are too small or too busy to run an actual store. As a result, it's often quite cutthroat.

Every time I create a new sale list, there will be at least a couple members who will offer lowball prices on already-competitively priced cards. It’s inescapable, and at times frustrating. I will admit that even I fall into this trap on occasion – I become greedy and attempt to find a steal on MOTL in order to garner a tiny bit of profit.

I’ve quickly come to the realization that MOTL is not the optimal venue for finding profitable opportunities.

Being Opportunistic vs. Being Anticipatory

During the earlier rounds of Pro Tour: Honolulu, I observed that Huntmaster of the Fells was seeing an impressively decent amount of play. What’s more, many players were commenting on how powerful the card was in the given metagame at the time.

That Friday, I decided to take a small risk and purchase three copies of the Huntmaster at around $10 each. I did so in anticipation of the card’s further success. The payoff far exceeded my expectations when eight copies of the card landed in the finals between PV and Kibler. Should the tournament seen an alternate outcome, Huntmasters may never have skyrocketed the way they had.


(Picture courtesy of cardshark.com)

Profiting from these circumstances often lie in our inherent ability to predict cards’ performances. For example, we could have observed a card like Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite combos well with Unburial Rites and is quite the powerhouse even at seven mana. With this conclusion, we decide to purchase a handful of the card while it is still selling on MOTL in the $10 range.

This path usually implies some level of risk. Acquisitions are being made before a given card has proven itself.

These anticipatory pick-ups are often what the writers here at Quiet Speculation like to elaborate upon. Our predictions are usually around cards that have the potential to double in value, often with limited downside.

But I want to take a moment to distinguish between attempting to acquire cards which may increase in price versus acquiring discounted cards below going market price. The former often requires some risk, but quantities are normally available because a card is not yet proven. The latter involves less risk, but usually requires patience and discipline as you sort through countless collections and listings looking for the precious few with opportunity.

While the endeavor of acquiring multiple copies of Past in Flames in anticipation of a price rise (which never happened) was exciting, I often prefer my acquisitions to be driven by opportunistic pickups.

Where I Find These Opportunities

If underpriced cards were readily available, they wouldn’t be underpriced. The economic law of supply and demand ensures the “invisible hand” shifts inventories until the final price is established.

But opportunities do exist. This is due to an array of factors, such as price fluctuations, limited supply or demand markets, aggressive sellers, etc. My intent is not to elaborate upon all of the reasons why opportunities exist – rather, let us operate under the assumption they do and for various reasons.

eBay

I almost never sell items on eBay. Besides the fact that the fees are far too constrictive to profit reliably, the corporation will almost always side with the buyer on any disputes. The only time I’ll resort to eBay to sell is out of desperation, when I’ve realized there are not many buyers for this particular item.

Buying on eBay, however, is one of my favorite pastimes. I can basically name my own price, and if the cards exceed that price I simply don’t buy. It takes a minimal amount of time searching for a particular item and placing a few bids. And while it takes a lot of trial an error, persistence is often rewarded.

For proof, search any card on eBay that has some significant value. Let’s use Underground Sea for example. Take a look at this ended auction:

This was the cheapest tournament legal Underground Sea auction to have ended on eBay in the past few months. Would you have been interested in purchasing it for $66? I sure would have! Sellers are humans and they do make mistakes. When they underprice a card, write a poor description, or take a poor picture, you can profit. But don’t take my word for it – try your own search and browse completed listings. You’d be surprised how wide of a price spread exists on many popular cards. Especially the more obscure ones.

Cardshark

I repeatedly mention this website in my articles. You may begin to think I am part owner – I assure you I am not. I do shop on this site very frequently because of the opportunities that present themselves.

Often times a new seller on Cardshark will want to rapidly accumulate feedback through sales. To do this, they charge sub-eBay prices on a handful of cards. Don’t believe me? Check out this purchase I made just a couple weeks ago:

Pretty reasonable deal, no? I’ve already managed to sell every card on this list for some profit except for the Cascade Bluffs, which I still own.

I’ll admit, this was the largest haul I’ve ever made on this site. But corner cases still exist, especially when prices are on a rapid incline. I originally found this seller because I saw he had two Phyrexian Obliterators for sale at $9.75 and I knew they were on the rise. After browsing the rest of his inventory, I swiftly added over two dozen more cards to my cart! Next time you see some cards on the rise, check out Cardshark. The shipping costs are tough to stomach, but if you can find a large group of underpriced cards from a single seller, you stand to gain handsomely.

MOTL

I began this article stating that MOTL is not an optimal place to find bargains. This is perhaps only half true. It really all depends on your approach… and how much time you have.

There are hundreds of sale lists on MOTL at any given time. A good portion of them are uninteresting to the speculator for a variety of reasons: the list is too small, prices are too high, cards are too obscure, seller’s rules are too strict, etc.

If you have enough patience and endurance, with a sprinkle of luck, you may be the winning person who is first to post on a new sale list with underpriced cards. Then, if the seller doesn’t realize his prices are too low, you may make yourself a nice profitable purchase.

The other 95% of the time you will be forced to navigate through sale lists with average prices and maybe one or two bargains. This leads to the negotiation step, which all sellers respond to differently. Make a reasonable offer to an anxious seller and you may still score a deal. Make a lowball offer to an agitated seller and prepare to be ignored or even lashed out at.

This is the reason I rely more heavily on eBay and Cardshark. I don’t have the fortitude to submit offer after offer with no response. Also, as a frequent seller on MOTL, I easily become frustrated with negotiators. I don’t want to be hypocritical, after all.

Summarizing

In the stock market, there is always a profitable opportunity somewhere, no matter how bullish or bearish Wall Street’s sentiment is. The same is true for the Magic Card market. But in the case of the Magic Card market, there are even zero risk opportunities to acquire underpriced cards. The trick is finding them.

This article touches upon the sources I use most frequently. There are other avenues such as small-scale retailers who don’t update prices often enough, sites like TCG Player and even your LGS. Even dealer booths at larger events can sometimes misprice a card or two.

Depending on how much time you have, there may be good reason to try this strategy. Search through eBay listings, look up some up-and-up cards on Cardshark, and browse a few MOTL lists. This gives you a feel for what cards should sell for and which ones are selling at a bargain. Even if you cannot identify any opportunities today, you will still learn something about the singles market. This can only make you a stronger trader.

I’ll leave you with a few last tips on how I browse eBay for deals:

  • Try looking for awkward quantities of a card. Often times a 2x or 3x auction will end cheaper on a per card basis than a 1x or 4x auction.
  • Don’t be afraid to narrow your search to Buy it Now auctions only. Some of the best deals I’ve found were from sellers who were overeager to sell, and so priced their cards far too low. The Underground Sea example above was a BiN auction.
  • On the other hand, if you're seeking an obscure card, it is definitely best to wait for an auction. Since demand for the obscure card is likely low, there may not be enough bidders around to drive the price up. This could result in a bargain for you!
  • Look for diverse lots. I once picked up an underpriced foil Scalding Tarn simply because the seller was selling it in a lot with a couple non-foils. I also found a lot of rare Innistrad lands that sold at below average prices.

Once you have acquired some inventory at bargain prices, the next logical phase is unloading them for profit. Next week I'll dive deeper into the different approaches you can take when maximizing sales and/or unloading quickly, depending on your goals

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Conspiring with Wort

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

My last couple articles have focused on trying some new things in Commander, mostly involving blue- and black-centered three-color combinations. This week we return to my comfort zone with a sweet red-green deck submitted for review on Twitter.

This particular list was submitted by Uriah (@CMDRDecks on Twitter.) If you haven't checked out his youtube channel, be sure to take some time to do that. There are all manner of interesting decks on there, with new ones coming in every week!

A few weeks ago Uriah asked the twitterverse for help with a Wort, the Raidmother deck that he'd been working on, and it seemed like a great opportunity to spend a few articles looking at the process of refining an already established deck.

The goal here is not necessarily to make the deck more powerful, but rather to tweak it so that it plays out the way you intended. Let's start by taking a look at the list as-is and determining the identifying characteristics that make the deck unique.

[deckbox did="a155" size="small" width="560"]

Typically, Wort decks operate using one or more of three engines: conspired spells, token generation and Warp World. Each of these engines operates differently and requires different setup cards, though there can certainly be some overlap.

This particular deck is pretty token-heavy with a tribal Goblins theme. We'll be sure to stay true to that intent as we modify the deck.

In his email Uriah said that he wanted to push splashy spells that interact well with Wort, which is one of a few things this deck isn't really capable of right now.

Looking at the list, you can see the only spells to conspire are Tooth and Nail, Warp World and various X Spells as the top of the curve. Of those, only the X Spells and Warp World really count, since this deck can pretty much win the game on the spot with a resolved Tooth and Nail for pieces of the Lightning Crafter combo.

For anyone who isn't familiar with this combo, it involves Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, Lightning Crafter and a sacrifice outlet. You need to have both Kiki-Jiki and the sacrifice outlet in play when Lightning Crafter enters the battlefield. Then, with the Champion trigger on the stack, you make a copy of Lightning Crafter. After exiling Kiki-Jiki with the token's Champion trigger, tap the token to shoot something and then sacrifice it. Kiki-Jiki will come back untapped and you can repeat the process for infinite damage.

With that said, let's break down the list by function and make some changes along the way:

The Ever-Important Ramp

As with many Commander decks, the ramp suite is one of the most important parts of the deck. As you've built around the idea of always having access to your commander, you're going to be at a severe disadvantage if you can't get it into play in a timely fashion.

Our focus will be primarily on sorceries and instants over artifact-based ramp. As a rule I don't like artifact ramp much anyway, and in Wort decks the upside for sorceries and instants provides a strong incentive to go that route whenever possible.

Here's the ramp that Uriah is currently running:

  • Yavimaya Elder
  • Oracle of Mul Daya
  • Firewild Borderpost
  • Sol Ring
  • Coalition Relic
  • Everflowing Chalice
  • Ashnod's Altar
  • Awakening Zone
  • Mana Reflection
  • Kodama's Reach
  • Cultivate
  • Garruk Wildspeaker

Personally I think that this is a good quantity of ramp, but the wrong kind for accomplishing what this deck wants. In general I want efficient spells like Rampant Growth that are going to enable as many turn four Worts as possible. This means a high density of two-mana ramp spells.

The second kind of spell I want more of are those that benefit a lot from Conspire such as Explosive Vegetation and Far Wanderings. These cards are fine on their own, but they become insane when you conspire them and play into the splashy spell theme that Uriah is looking for.

The last kind of ramp spell I want are the ones that interacts well with the other themes of the deck. For Artifact or Equipment decks this might mean efficient mana rocks, but for this one I want cards like Primal Growth and Perilous Forays that can turn your tokens into a more tangible resource when necessary.

The changes to the ramp package are probably the biggest changes I'm making to the deck overall:

Cuts:

Additions:

I'd like to fit more two-mana ramp spells in here, but I think that these give you the most explosive potential early while also letting you go over the top in the late game.

Synergizing with Goblins

Goblins are the major subtheme of this deck, and its the part I'm most excited about!

This theme really ties together all of the strategies that Wort decks tend to push. You have a bunch of creatures that generate Goblin tokens so you can copy your red spells. Those tokens are awesome for spells like Warp World and you have a few giant spells that make a ton of Goblins to round it off.

  • Ember Hauler
  • Goblin Piledriver
  • Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
  • Moggcatcher
  • Mogg War Marshal
  • Siege-Gang Commander
  • Stingscourger
  • Goblin Recruiter
  • Skirk Prospector
  • Lightning Crafter
  • Warren Instigator
  • Chancellor of the Forge
  • Goblin Sharpshooter
  • Goblin Chieftain
  • Goblin Warchief
  • Tin Street Hooligan
  • Goblin Ringleader
  • Goblin Matron
  • Dragon Fodder
  • Mogg Infestation
  • Goblin Offensive

I think most of these cards carry their weight pretty well. Most of them are reasonably sized (for Goblins, at least) and provide some type of utility effect ranging from marginal to game-breaking. That said, there are two cards that jump out as significantly underpowered, as well as a few that seem to fall just short.

The first card that seems out of place is Ember Hauler. I can see this little guy being awesome if you frequently play against the likes of Azami, Lady of Scrolls or Jhoira of the Ghitu, but I think Gempalm Incinerator will generally be better since it cantrips and scales up over the course of a game.

The second card I'm not a huge fan of is Dragon Fodder, which has a pretty marginal impact. Granted, it sets up Conspire and can itself be conspired later on, but I think that Empty the Warrens will have a much higher upside for a minimal additional investment.

The rest of these cards seem mandatory for this style of deck since they're pretty much all of the best Goblins. I would like to fit in Goblin Lackey to go with Warren Instigator, but I think we'll have to look elsewhere for cuts to make that happen.

One thing that I really like is that there are two creature-based sources of haste for your Goblins in Goblin Warchief and Goblin Chieftain. This means that you have the potential to Warp World into a billion tokens with haste, which seems like exactly the kind of splashy play this deck is all about.

Cuts:

Additions:

Going over the Top

Wort decks generally win the game by resolving the biggest spells at the table multiple times. I'm a big fan of this strategy since it synergizes with the massive amount of mana this style of deck is capable of generating.

  • Sarkhan Vol
  • Primeval Titan
  • Avenger of Zendikar
  • Mycoloth
  • Mirari
  • Doubling Season
  • Parallel Lives
  • Shared Animosity
  • Warp World
  • Devil's Play
  • Tooth and Nail

Besides the obvious inclusions, there are a few choices here that are specific to the deck's subthemes such as Shared Animosity which goes along with the tribal theme.

The only card I'd be unhappy to play is Mycoloth. He interacts well with both Doubling Season and Parallel Lives, but beyond those he's pretty vulnerable for something that you're going all-in on. I'd rather have a card like Genesis Wave, which is a redundant copy of a Warp World effect as well as one of the most powerful effects in the format.

Cuts:

Additions:

Utility and Card Advantage

  • Green Sun's Zenith
  • Heat Shimmer
  • Hibernation's End
  • Chord of Calling
  • Eternal Witness
  • Mimic Vat
  • Chandra Nalaar
  • Master of the Wild Hunt
  • Skullclamp
  • Goblin Bombardment
  • Fatal Frenzy
  • Slice in Twain
  • Artifact Mutation
  • Into the Maw of Hell
  • Recoup
  • Wild Ricochet
  • Lightning Greaves
  • Swiftfoot Boots

This is sort of the "everything else" of the deck, and it covers a lot of bases. You have a ton of creature-based tutors, and ways to abuse enters-the-battlefield abilities. There's some amount of card drawing, sacrifice outlets and answers to different types of permanents.

These cards need to do an awful lot of things. In general they do a pretty good job of it, but there are a few changes I'd make for the sake of personal preference.

The first thing I would change is to cut Hibernation's End. As sweet as this card can be, especially for decks that can go up the chain, I would rather have an effect I have more control over. A good replacement might be Birthing Pod or a one-shot tutor that requires jumping through fewer hoops.

The next change I would make is to swap Chandra Nalaar for Chandra, the Firebrand. If we're looking to amp up the spells then this seems like a pretty simple change to make, since Chandra's power scales directly with that of the spells you're copying.

Next, I'd cut the expensive cards that provide narrow effects (Into the Maw of Hell) and the cards which require extra support to function (Master of the Wild Hunt). I'd also cut Swiftfoot Boots and Lightning Greaves since the deck has enough ramp and sacrifice outlets to protect yourself from targeted effects and recast Wort without too much trouble.

With those four slots freed up we can add Anarchist for additional recursion and to power up Heat Shimmer and Warp World. Next, I would add the Goblin Lackey I was trying to fit in earlier.

The last two slots go to Regrowth and Vengeful Rebirth, which will give you some inevitability in the late game. If the game goes long enough, you can conspire one Regrowth effect to recur a good spell and a second Regrowth. This lets you create a game state where you never run out of gas, one of the problems these decks generally struggle with.

The last three cards I want to fit into the deck are Reiterate, Electropotence and Hull Breach. Reiterate is a flexible card that generates card advantage and gives you access to effects that Red typically does not have. It is especially powerful in a ramp-heavy deck.

Electropotence is a card that I think is really good in conjunction with the Genesis Wave and Warp World effects that this deck is built around. These let you control the board after you resolve one of these effects, or just kill someone if you can put enough Goblin tokens into play at one time.

Lastly, Hull Breach is an effect this deck is lacking. There are a ton of ways to answer artifacts, but not so many to deal with problematic enchantments.

In order to make space for these three cards I would probably cut Green Sun's Zenith, Fatal Frenzy and Recoup. Recoup is outclassed by the interactions between multiple [card Regrowth]Regrowths[/card], Fatal Frenzy seems out of place, and Green Suns Zenith has surprisingly few targets.

Cuts:

Additions:

Manabase

And finally, let's take a look at the land situation:

  • 4 Forest
  • 7 Mountain
  • Goblin Burrows
  • Fungal Reaches
  • Khalni Garden
  • Kessig Wolf Run
  • Treetop Village
  • Tranquil Thicket
  • Mutavault
  • Gaea's Cradle
  • Raging Ravine
  • Mosswort Bridge
  • Kazandu Refuge
  • Temple of the False God
  • Llanowar Reborn
  • Reflecting Pool
  • Evolving Wilds
  • Kher Keep
  • Spinerock Knoll
  • Stomping Ground
  • Taiga
  • Copperline Gorge
  • Fire-Lit Thicket
  • Forgotten Cave
  • Rootbound Crag
  • Rishadan Port
  • Misty Rainforest
  • Oran-Rief, the Vastwood

The only thing I don't like about this manabase is the amount of colorless and "enters the battlefield tapped" lands. Neither of these were as much of a problem before the ramp suite was changed from artifacts to green sorceries. If we just change a few of these lands to basic forests everything should be ready to go.

Cuts:

Additions:

With that, the final list I'd have looks like this:

[deckbox did="a154" size="small" width="560"]

I hope that Uriah gets a chance to try out some of these suggestions and lets me know how they work out. Overall I think this is an interesting direction to take Wort in. The Goblin theme is an interesting deck-building constraint, and it seems like a ton of fun to play with. I'm pretty excited to hear how it turns out!

Next week I continue digging through my email and take a look at a Dralnu, Lich Lord deck. Dralnu is one of my favorite Commanders and was actually one of the first decks that I built, so I'm excited to give him a fresh look with some of the new cards from recent sets!

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com

@cag5383 on Twitter

The Return of the Prediction Tracker

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello everyone! I’m stepping out from behind the usual confines of the Insider zone to bring you a very important announcement regarding the future of Quiet Speculation and some of our very best features.

As you may be aware, a while back (almost a year ago, time has certainly flown), I introduced the Prediction Tracker, an idea I dreamed up after months of raging about the quality of some of the articles I read. I was tired of reading articles about how the author made the most amazing and perfectly correct call on [CARDNAME], while simultaneously ignoring the cards they said would spike and instead faded into obscurity.

With very few people willing to delve back into old articles and point out these incorrect calls while others would blindly support a writer, I decided there had to be a better way to keep people accountable.

Enter the Prediction Tracker.

Of course, in its final evolved form (Stage 2 even), the Tracker did so much more than that. It allowed an easy way to contributors to collaborate on card speculating, and provided all of that information in an easy-to-read format for readers of Quiet Speculation. We made some very public and correct calls on the Tracker, including the rise of Consecrated Sphinx and Dark Confidant, which made everyone involved a ton of cash. In no time at all, my little idea to add accountability to the financial world had quickly become a tool to make all of us hundreds of dollars from Magic, and needless to say it was one of our most popular features.

The problem is that, as a startup, we at Quiet Speculation have lots of good ideas but not always the technical expertise to make it work, and the Tracker showed our limits when we hit our input limit a few months later. We made the best of the tools we had, but the bottom line is that it simply grew too big.

At that point, the decision was made to take the current model of the Tracker down while QS founder Kelly Reid worked on a new version, one he built himself while teaching himself how to program. From there, we hoped the new version would roll out soon, but it wasn’t able to happen as quickly as we had hoped. That said, there is a very good reason for this, and I’ll let Kelly explain in his own words.

“Here's what you need to know:

We have spent the last few months working with Ross Allen, who is the guy behind Black Lotus Project. He'll be developing a new generation of our software, one which will add real-time pricing capability to our site.  We developed a rudimentary new prediction tracker, but rather than release it, we want to let Ross do his thing.  He's a professional, a front-end developer for airbnb.com <http://airbnb.com> , and wrote the ticker that appears on our site.

Our development has hit a bunch of small speed bumps, the kind that every little startup goes through, and we decided that until we have a Ross' software working, we wanted to have something online since we got so many requests. We're excited about what he's working on and appreciate the patience as we learn and grow as a young company!”

As you might have gathered, we have decided to do what we can with what we have while Ross works on developing our software on a more professional level. I’ve seen the very early stages of this, and I can tell you it’s some pretty awesome stuff. There isn’t a ready-to-announce timeline yet on the stuff he and Kelly are working on, but there is something else we can do.

That’s right, the Prediction Tracker is back.

You can always find the Tracker up at https://www.quietspeculation.com/predictions/. In addition, at the top of our homepage under the Prediction Tracker dropdown you can always click on “This week’s Tracker” to find the above link.

Bringing it back

I’ve known for a little while that it was best to get something up while the new Tracker is being developed. I also knew that we needed to address some of the problems of the old Tracker.

The biggest issue we had is that we had too many people inputting too many cards. We don’t need a pages-long list of every card that might someday find a home; we need an easy-to-access page that will let readers know what we are targeting personally.

I feel like we’ve addressed that concern by keeping the contributor list a bit tighter (though we’ll likely be adding 1-2 people over the next few months), and asking each contributor to keep the number of cards they include down to the calls they feel most strongly about.

As always, let me stress that we’re not some faceless corporation rolling out these features. We’re Magic players and traders just like you working hard to make Quiet Speculation the best it can be, and your feedback is vital to that. Let me know what you think about the Tracker and any ways it can be improved. You can reach me through the comment section here, inside our forums or on Twitter @Chosler88.

I’m as excited as all of you for the next phase in Quiet Speculation’s evolution, and I hope you all enjoy the Prediction Tracker and get as much out of it as I do!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Free, SpecialTagged , 4 Comments on The Return of the Prediction Tracker

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation