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Dralnu’s Forbidden Alchemy

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After taking a week off to recover from some kind of plague I had contracted, I'm excited to be back digging through my mail. This week I'm going to take a look at an email from Joe, who is generally an aggro player and wants to build a control deck for Commander. Since most of his other decks are combinations of green, red and white, he wanted this deck to be based in blue and black. From the available Commanders in those colors he picked Dralnu, Lich Lord.

I'm excited to work with Dralnu, especially given the return of graveyard enablers and engines in Innistrad block. Besides the new toys you get to play with, there are also old standbys like Fact or Fiction that become even more absurd with flashback.

The problem with this style of deck is the lack of access to white wrath effects like Austere Command. The issue is twofold. Not only do you frequently get stuck trading one-for one, you also can't answer artifacts or enchantments that hit the table.

Your mana also gets more stressed against multiple players. You only get to untap once per turn cycle, but you may have to cast three or more counterspells or removal spells during this time. This means it's important to develop your mana consistently over the course of a game.

The biggest issue I foresee for this deck is finding a suitable win condition. Most Dralnu decks play every available Time Warp, which is certainly powerful, but I just don't enjoy those effects in multiplayer formats. Cards that effectively read "Each other player skips their turn" will not make you friends and instead get you hated off of a table.

Let's do things a little differently this week and start with the manabase that can support a heavy control deck:

Getting Control of Our Mana

People have invested a lot of man-hours into solving the question of Constructed mana bases. People have figured out how many lands are needed for different styles of control and aggro decks, and we can apply those same principles to Commander. Blue-black control decks in standard play twenty-six or twenty-seven mana sources these days, which is about the same as forty-three sources in a ninety-nine-card deck. This deck is probably going to play a few more than that once we add in the acceleration.

Let's start with the lands:

Lands

  • Hall of the Bandit Lord
  • Winding Canyons
  • Cephalid Coliseum
  • Minamo, School at Water's Edge
  • Temple of the False God
  • Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
  • Duskmantle, House of Shadow
  • Nephalia Drownyard
  • High Market
  • Reliquary Tower
  • Petrified Field
  • Bojuka Bog
  • Deserted Temple
  • Tolaria West
  • Strip Mine
  • Tectonic Edge
  • Creeping Tar Pit
  • Faerie Conclave
  • Blinkmoth Nexus
  • Inkmoth Nexus
  • Dreadship Reef
  • Sunken Ruins
  • Buried Ruin
  • 9 Island
  • 6 Swamp

This is a pretty straightforward mana base with a reasonable number of dual lands and a ton of utility.

Hall of the Bandit Lord and Winding Canyons help you get an activation out of Dralnu before he gets killed, while High Market helps protect Dralnu from burn spells that will put you completely out of the game.

Cephalid Coliseum is exciting in this deck as a cheap cantrip that fills your graveyard and digs for countermagic. Nephalia Drownyard and Duskmantle, House of Shadow also help to fill your graveyard, but they also randomly disrupt tutors like Enlightened Tutor and double as win conditions in slow games. Each activation of these lands is like drawing a card and keeps you from running out of gas in the late game.

The big hurdle to overcome is that you can only activate Dralnu once per turn cycle. Minamo, School At Water's Edge is awesome for this deck since it gives you another activation and even a third with Deserted Temple. This card is usually the first tutor target for Tolaria West.

Mana Rocks

Supplementing the thirty-eight lands in this deck, here we see two kinds of acceleration.

First, there's the cheap acceleration to get your shields up early. Second, there's ramp that generates a larger and larger mana advantage over the course of a game. Things like Crucible of Worlds and Everflowing Chalice get better the longer a game lasts.

  • Sol Ring
  • Mistvein Borderpost
  • Thran Dynamo
  • Everflowing Chalice
  • Gilded Lotus
  • Talisman of Dominance
  • Expedition Map
  • Crucible of Worlds
  • Catalyst Stone

Catalyst Stone is a subtly sweet find for this deck. It doesn't do much until you find Minamo, School at Water's Edge, but at that point you start netting more mana every turn.

Crucible of Worlds is really important for this deck's engine. You're going to put a lot of cards into your graveyard, and then you have this interesting interaction between Petrified Field, Buried Ruin and Crucible of Worlds. This combination lets you recur first a Crucible of Worlds, then any land or artifact that's been destroyed or milled during the game. While this engine is slow, it's difficult to break up and sets up one of the sweeter win conditions I found.

What win condition is this, you might ask?

You may have to read on to find out... For now, let's delve into the heart of the deck.

The Answers

Blue-black control is traditionally based on countermagic and creature removal. The key here is to find counterspells and removal that do one of several things. You want them to be incredibly mana efficient so that you can fight over multiple things each turn cycle. You also want them to replace themselves or generate some kind of advantage instead of trading one-for-one. Last, you want them to have synergy with Dralnu beyond just being really good to cast twice.

I'm pretty confident that the suite of spells I've settled on accomplishes these three things pretty well. Let's start by looking at the creature removal:

Removal Spells

  • Dominate
  • Damnation
  • Ghastly Demise
  • Sudden Death
  • Diabolic Edict
  • Snuff Out
  • Sever the Bloodline
  • Rend Flesh
  • Go for the Throat
  • Life's Finale
  • Expunge

Generally you want to play the most flexible removal spells available so they're never dead. When you're drawing and milling through your deck as quickly as this deck, you can afford to play more narrow answers. It's also important to notice that when your deck plays mostly at instant speed you can afford to play expensive spells.

Dominate is a great example of this. The effect is powerful but also extremely mana intensive. You can't afford to leave up a ton of mana for Dominate unless you can also play other spells when the situation calls for it. Otherwise you may end up doing nothing at all, which can be a huge blow to your tempo.

There's a lot of cheap removal, like Ghastly Demise and Snuff Out, that let you play multiple answers without stressing your mana. You also have flexible removal like Rend Flesh and Sever the Bloodline.

The two most exciting cards out of these are the ones that play well with Dralnu-- Life's Finale and Expunge. Expunge is just straight up value with Dralnu as your general. It cycles to fix your draws early and flashes back as a removal spell when you need one. What more could you want?

Life's Finale is sort of the opposite of Expunge. Where Expunge is efficient and flexible, Life's Finale crushes some decks out of the game. Take a second to think about how many of your decks fall apart when you lose your six best creatures. If you target the same opponent twice you can get rid of their best recursion pieces or late game bombs.

Counterspells

The counterspells are the second half of the suite of answers. The same principles apply to counterspells as to removal. You want counterspells to be flexible, cheap, synergistic, and to replace themselves. Fortunately, a number of counterspells combine several of these requirements.

  • Counterspell
  • Rewind
  • Hinder
  • Spell Crumple
  • Mindbreak Trap
  • Dissipate
  • Arcane Denial
  • Traumatic Visions
  • Negate
  • Deprive
  • Cryptic Command
  • Dismiss
  • Stifle
  • Scattering Stroke
  • Exlude
  • Muddle the Mixture

Notice how many of these counterspells either put spells on the bottom of their owner's deck or exile them. This kind of effect is important given the prevalence of recursion in the format.

There are also powerful narrow counterspells, like Stifle and Muddle the Mixture, which are awesome because you can mill them away and flash them back when you need the effect. Muddle the Mixture and Traumatic Visions are much like Expunge in that you can cycle them to fix your draw early and flash them back for value later.

You've got a suite of more expensive counterspells that do cool things: Dismiss, Cryptic Command, Rewind and Scattering Stroke. Scattering Stroke in particular is a card that I wish saw more play. People play expensive counterspells with marginal upside all the time, and Mana Drain is absurdly powerful even costed at four mana. If this gets to drain them even half of the time, I'll be ecstatic!

Filtering and Card Advantage

Once you've figured out of the suite of answers you're playing, the trick is to tie it all together. What cards set up a graveyard engine and generate card advantage without being clunky early? The way I resolved this was with a large number of cantrips and powerful draw effects, especially ones that set up your graveyard.

  • Ponder
  • Preordain
  • Brainstorm
  • Thought Scour
  • Mental Note
  • Serum Visions
  • Jace's Ingenuity
  • Blue Sun's Zenith
  • Secrets of the Dead
  • Merchant Scroll
  • Entomb
  • Intuition
  • Mystical Teachings
  • Moonlight Bargain
  • Fact or Fiction
  • Memory Plunder
  • Demonic Tutor

The first set of cards are all sweet cantrips that have seen play in a ton of formats. These cards help you sculpt your draws early, dig for answers later and set up your graveyard for flashback shenanigans. You even get to flash these back later in the game for more value. They let you look at so many cards that you can easily find singleton answers even in a ninety-nine card deck.

The next suite of cards are tutors and draw spells. Entomb and Intuition are insane in this deck, effectively [card Demonic Tutor]Demonic Tutors[/card] with upside. Similarly, Fact or Fiction and Moonlight Bargain are even better in this deck than normal. You get to dig five cards deep, keep all of them, and cast the best ones twice!

Winning the Game

This is the part I was most concerned about when building the deck. It seems like it's going to be difficult to stick a threat, given that you need to leave up so much mana and dedicate so many cards to what your opponents are doing. That said, I found a sweet set of cards that threaten to end the game quickly once you find an opening to cast them.

  • Myojin of Night's Reach
  • Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
  • Grave Titan
  • Runechanter's Pike
  • Army of the Damned
  • Swiftfoot Boots
  • Twincast
  • Reanimate

The first interaction to be aware of is the one between Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir and Mystical Teachings. First you tutor up Teferi with the front end of teachings, and then you tutor up a bomb like Grave Titan with the second half and flash it in on someone's end step.

Your second option is to steal someone else's win condition with Twincast and Reanimate, both of which are incredibly efficient. You can easily cast a threat that costs six to nine mana for one or two while leaving up the rest of your mana for counterspells.

I'm most excited about this win condition though:

Pike has made an impact in both Standard and Vintage and it's just as powerful here. You can easily set up game states where you can two-shot people with Dralnu, and first strike means you won't have to sacrifice permanents. It's not even that out of the question to one-shot someone. You won't be able to do it until late in the game, but it's definitely not something that people are going to expect.

With that out of the way, here's the finished decklist:

[deckbox did="a156" size="small" width="560"]

Overall, I'm happy with how this turned out. I think the deck errs a little more on the control end of the spectrum than I'd like, and after playing some games with it I'll probably cut some answers for more midrangey threats like Meloku the Clouded Mirror. It's likely the deck also wants more untap effects for Dralnu and a big mana engine such as Cabal Coffers or [card Urza's Tower]Urza lands[/card]. As a starting point though, I think this is a great place to be.

Next week I'm going to take a look at a color combination I've never built before! We'll be working with Edric, Spymaster of Trest and trying to build a tempo deck for this Timmyest of formats. Be sure to check it out!

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com

@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: An Alternate Investment in Booster Boxes

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Although players prefer to ignore the inevitability, I will make the bold statement here: one day, new Magic: the Gathering cards will no longer be printed.

It pains me to say it, but it is an ultimate truth we must come to terms with. The cliché “all good things must come to an end” applies to many facets of life, including life itself. Magic: the Gathering is not immune to this truism.

This indisputable fact is the basis for my occasional sealed product purchase. I never want to imagine a day where I can’t open a fresh pack of cards. And I can ensure that day never comes regardless of what Hasbro’s profitability is from this game.

Why I Buy Booster Boxes

This Magic Apocalypse is hopefully many years away. The game is selling more now than ever before, and with a recent increase in Grand Prix Wizards has shown no indication of a slowdown any time soon.

But I would argue there are still other valuable reasons why one should consider acquiring a couple of Booster Boxes – even beyond the concept of owning one of the last few sealed Magic products available.

Profitability

This is a financial column, so of course my number one purpose for discussing sealed product is the potential for profit. Often overlooked, sealed booster boxes are rife with investment opportunity. You just need to know where to look.

The strongest supporting argument I can provide for this theory lies in current prices for out-of-print boxes. While the price per box varies widely, even to orders of magnitude when Legends and Arabian Nights are included, there is one general trend that holds true for most sealed boxes. They go up in price.

A cursory breakdown of sealed booster box prices of out-of-print product from Star City Games shows that the average price on their site (excluding boxes above $1000) is just about $200. Since booster boxes typically pre-sell for around $100 shipped this indicates that if you buy a box of every new set, then on average you will double your money if you wait long enough.

But these numbers are even better once you factor in some common sense. Everyone knew that Fallen Empires, Homelands and Nemesis were below-average sets. Meanwhile, thanks to Tarmogoyf, a set like Future Sight is far above-average. If we had made the [arguably logical] decision to purchase zero boxes of the poor sets and multiple boxes of the stronger sets, profits could have increased even further.

I have two personal experiences with buying boxes for profit thus far. A few months ago I purchased a box of Unhinged for $144 shipped. The Unhinged lands were slowly creeping up in price and I figured with boxes of the original joke set Unglued selling in the mid $300’s, there was plenty of upside. Sure enough, booster boxes of Unhinged reliably sell for $200 on eBay as we speak and prices aren’t slowing down.

On the other hand, I also purchased a box of Coldsnap a few months ago. My rationale was that there would be at least a handful of breakout cards for Modern hailing from the Coldsnap expansion. Since the set was unpopular and didn’t sell well, I figured quantities would be lower, driving prices up. Turns out there really isn’t much in Coldsnap worth owning these days and my investment is still basically flat. Impatience has driven me to sell the box for a marginal loss.

Safety

No, I’m not implying sealed booster boxes can help save your life or fight criminals. I am referring to the best characteristic of booster box investments – they virtually never drop in price in the long term

Sticking with the original assumption that a booster box of a new set sells for $100, I’m hard-pressed to find many sealed, English booster boxes under this price. A quick search of Buy-It-Now auctions on eBay yielded very little. There were plenty of Standard Booster Boxes in the mid $90’s, and there were even a few Italian, Chinese, and French boxes even cheaper. But the cheapest English booster box of a set not legal in Standard was M11, priced at $97.99.

Of course you could argue that sitting on the sidelines watching auctions will yield you better prices. But my point still remains strong: given enough time, there are very few boxes you could buy upon release that won’t pay off in the long run. If you buy booster boxes of a disliked, underpowered set, you will still nearly break even. And again, applying some common sense will ensure your investments are even safer.

(After all, who wants boxes of M11?)

Casual Appeal

I love playing in FNM drafts. The format has been a Magic staple for many years, and the appeal is even stronger now that Wizards pays closer attention to ensuring the format is fun and balanced.

On a given Friday evening, as soon as the tournament organizer says “go”, we rip open pack after pack seeking to make the most unbeatable deck. Do you ever stop and think about what would happen if the accessibility of these packs diminished?

I began drafting during Time Spiral block (I was very late to the party). To this day, triple Time Spiral is still my favorite drafting format. Even Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, Future Sight looks like a ton of fun because there is such a wide breadth of playable card types.

But here we are a few years and I can no longer head over to my LGS and draft these sets. They are simply too expensive or in most cases, not even in stock.

Oh, what would I give to be able to draft these sets again? Well, some patient bidding on eBay has gotten me even closer to this dream. For $160 I managed to pick up a sealed, English box of Time Spiral booster packs. The price isn’t cheap, but that should be no surprise. The set has a few strong Legacy/Modern/EDH playables and I have a feeling the supply of sealed boxes is diminishing thanks to the casual appeal of drafting this set.

With this booster box in hand, I have a win-win decision in front of me: I can sit on the sealed box and attempt to sell/trade it for profit in the future. After all, supply of this product will never go up again. Alternatively, I can find a few MTG friends and re-live Time Spiral drafting days! Either way, the investment in this box will be well worth it.

Devil’s Advocate

Some readers may be flustered with this article’s position: I present an opinion and decline to provide alternate viewpoints on this topic. Fear not, emphatic readers, for I will at least mention a few downsides and alternatives to owning booster boxes.

First, sealed booster boxes take up a decent amount of space, especially in numbers. If storage is a limiting factor for you, perhaps only a dabble in this area of MTG investing is the right amount for you. Closet space tends to be a precious commodity.

Second, there’s the factor of opportunity cost. Each box typically costs $100-$200, and this is a significant amount of cash to have tied up for months to years. Certainly, buying seasonal staples and Standard break-out cards can net you larger profit in the short term. But having already written articles about those strategies, I wanted to provide an alternative for people with a long-term view.

Finally, one could argue that purchasing dual lands and Power would be a comparably safe investment. I won’t disagree with this argument. I will merely state that booster boxes is a fun alternative to consider. After all, it’s much more likely you’ll find a few friends who will want to draft an older set rather than a few friends who want to play sanctioned vintages tournaments with Power.

Worth a Shot

Overall, I think an investment in one or two sealed English booster boxes is worth a shot. Recently I have picked up a box of New Phyrexia. Prices are already a little higher now than they were upon the set’s release. Even though the set will soon rotate from Standard, there are a good number of playable cards across multiple formats. The set also has some sweet flavor that may be fun for casual drafters.

Finally, being the final set of its respective block, the amount of product opened is relatively lower than its block counterparts.

I encourage you to research sealed box prices a little further, to see if you come to the same conclusion as I have. That is, sealed booster boxes rarely drop in price, but on average they increase in price significantly over a few years.

The time frame may be much longer, but the risk/reward ratio is nearly unbeatable!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Insider: Playing Maze of Ith in Modern (and why Wizards wants Modern to kill Legacy)

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Wizards announced three more Modern Grands Prix this year, bringing the schedule to two American GPs, a Euro GP and a Canadian GP so close that I'd imagine plenty of players are hunting for their passports. Modern is a ripe field for speculation and it's a great time to be stocking up on some hot cards for the format. This week, we're going to take a look at what you should pick up, what you should hold off on, and what the Modern metagame will shape up to.

First, though, an interlude...

A few weeks ago, I wrote about using bidding schedulers to price-enforce cards on Ebay. Kelly emailed me yesterday, thank-bragging me about getting a Tawnos's Coffin for $10 shipped. That's the kind of thing I was talking about – policing the market to get $15 cards for 40% off. If you haven't read the article yet, you're leaving money on the table!

Prediction: Legacy will be at 60% strength a year from now.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Wizards of the Coast is more interested in Modern than in Legacy. This makes sense. If the Modern card pool gets out of control in price, they can release the pressure with Planechase, Commander, Archenemy, Duel Decks and other boxed sets. Wizards cannot do that in Legacy. Wizards wants people to graduate to more expansive formats, and Modern is one that's achievable. Legacy, with $40 fetchlands and $100 duals, is less and less approachable. It's getting harder for WOTC to run Legacy events with a straight face.

Unsustainable.
There are only so many of these to go around. Not everybody gets to cast Delver of Secrets.

By the end of this year, there will have been seven Modern Grands Prix and only three Legacy GPs. The Pro Tour forReturn to Ravnica this Fall will be Modern. I have intimated before that I don't see the Legacy market sustaining both high prices and high interest. Thanks to the newly-spoiled Temporal Mastery (the Time Walk miracle), more and more Legacy players feel that the format is too degenerate to play in. This may be a little bit of Chicken Little on their part, but it's worth paying attention to the sentiments of players. Attendance at events noticeably dropped during both Darksteel Affinity and Worldwake Caw-Blade, which depressed secondary markets.

Modern is a fantastic format to speculate on. We see cards like Proclamation of Rebirth go from a dollar to $9.00 in five days. This dynamism is supported by an actual event calendar that supports play more than the SCG Opens do. People are more likely to buy the high-dollar cards when they have bigger events to play in. Everyone wants to live the dream of being the unknown that takes down pros at a Grand Prix.

That said, there are some intelligent cards to speculate on and there are many that you should avoid. Speculating on Modern often depends on being in the right place with the right info, which is why our Insider alerts are a crucial tool for many speculators. We've also been writing about what's worth stocking up on for Modern before Modern was a format. I've concluded that the list is a lot different if you are a player or a speculator. If you're a player, you do not want to be caught buying $4 uncommons that you needed. As a speculator, you cannot tie up so much money in playsets of cards that won't generate the profits that keep you hustling instead of pursuing meaningful work.

There are very few secret bargains left in Modern.

Tarmogoyf is the most absolutely stable bet you can make in Modern. It has no chance of being banned right now because, believe it or not, the card isn't as good as Delver of Secrets. Goyf lacks evasion and even though it gets huge, it's a little bit easier to handle in the format. It's $82 on Ebay and about $90 in stores right now. I'd predict this to hit $100 or more during the GP season. I also doubt that this will be reprinted in meaningful quantities because it's still above the curve for most Standard environments. A 4/5 for 1G is a potent monster, even if you have to build it up with a Ponder or a Lightning Bolt instead of fetchlands.

Shocklands could still be $15 if they were in Standard - just look at Seachrome Coast's price tag these days.

I'm not confident that putting investment cash into Goyfs is sound, though, because a gain of $20 on an $80 card is only a 20% profit. If you roll that same $80 into short-term specs, you could double or triple it. Tarmogoyf is better trade fodder than gold bouillon from Credit Suisse, so if you can get more in trade value, it's still worth thinking about.

The Zendikar fetchlands are also solid bets for long-term holds. You've heard this before, sure. The one point I'll make on it is that although everyone overestimated how much the Ravnica shocklands would get played, nobody estimated that we'd see this many fetches in decks. It's much easier to run six fetches and two duals than four duals and four fetches – the chances of getting whammied by Blood Moon are much lower if you can more reliably get those basics out. These are also unlikely to be reprinted in the next five or more years. They will eventually get up to the $30 range of their Onslaught friends if they do not see reprinting.

I have it on decent authority that shocklands will be reprinted in the next year, possibly in M13. We are returning to Ravnica in October, which leaves both M13 and Ravnica as good places for reprinting these lands. Even if they are reprinted, they might command $15 in Standard – just look at Seachrome Coast for proof. I'm not going to be picking up any shocks for more than $20, which de facto means I'm not picking up any shocks right now.

Stocking up on investment cards depends on whether you are playing or speculating.

As I mentioned earlier, there are different lists of “get this” cards for players and speculators. If you're a player, I think you need to make sure you have access to the power uncommons and the less-powerful uncommons that routinely get played. The two that immediately come to mind are Firespout and Electrolyze. Both are great for picking off weenie hordes. Both can hit $3-5 at event sites if you need them. You should have Path to Exiles because they will only go up in price; I don't think they'll appreciate enough to reward speculating, but getting cheap playsets is wise. This will be $5 or more forever.

As long as we have Tron in the format, Expedition Maps will be worth money, and more over time. It's unlikely that we will see nonbasic hate that is as powerful as the spells that Tron can crank out. To explain further, it's not like we'll see a better Sowing Salt, but we did see a better Wurmcoil Engine when Karn Liberated was printed. We will continue to see big Tron-worthy spells and monsters, which makes Tron ever more potent.

GP: Turin will quietly shape the Grand Prix Trial season for the rest of the year.

Let's look at the T8 from GP: Turin, which was a Modern event. Take a good look at Jose Luis Velazquez Del Pozo's U/R Storm list. No Pyromancer Ascension, just Gifts Ungiven. I've tested this deck and it's startlingly like High Tide. Jose's list is on the more tame side of Gifts combo, but be aware that these sorts of decks exist. I say he's on the tame side because there are some lists that run Increasing Vengeance, which is an insane piece of technology that you should remember.

That card makes it quite easy to make lots of mana with Seething Song, fight counterspells or double up on things like Banefire. These kinds of Storm decks are nearly mechanical in their regularity, just like High Tide is. You just set up for four turns, cast Gifts at an endstep and win the next turn. Doesn't matter who or what the opponent is. In the hands of disciplined players, this is the storm deck to look out for.

Totally great creature control that nobody can afford to play in their deck.

Splinter Twin decks also popped up, both in maindecks and sideboards. I think it's totally lame that atwo-card creature-based combo is actually great. We will be seeing a lot more of this combo. I suggest that players get their set of Damping Matrix. There's also the chance that Night of Soul's Betrayal will be playable, but I think it suffers from The Abyss Syndrome. The Abyss is great, but no decks can really play it in Legacy because the ones that care about creatures often want to run their own creatures.

NOSB shuts down combos, but it also cuts off some of the best creatures in the format from your deck. Curse of Death's Hold is still an option, but it may be just a little too expensive. Torpor Orb is also a consideration – but Twin decks usually have plans for Damping Matrix and the Orb. The card “Splinter Twin” is a known card at this point; its value should remain stable, but I wouldn't bother getting them unless you personally wanted to play the deck.

The deck that Antonio used to take down the event, RUG Delver, is a strange beast. It's not particularly great at anything, but it's very efficient. It has decent filtering and contains a few bombs like Garruk Relentless and Cryptic Command to negotiate tough spots. I predict we'll see a lot of this at GPTs, since it runs blue cards and it's Pro-approved. I don't think the deck can withstand a lot of out-there strategies, though de Rosa did hold his own against the Soul Sisters deck that he battled in the finals. Vedalken Shackles and Threads of Disloyalty are both worth keeping an eye on. Shackles dismantled everyone that de Rosa played, and Threads is an excellent post-board answer spell for the mirror.

Maze of Ith is actually Modern-legal (but it's not called by that name).

Pack your Camels, boys. This is going to be a painful trek.

The best anti-fair deck card I've come across in awhile has been Desert. A deck like RUG Delver cannot beat two Deserts on the field, and a single Desert is going to stop decks like Faeries and Affinity. I suggest dropping the $2 and getting your set if you play Modern; there will come a time when you want the dessicating land's ability to completely mess up combats.

It acts like a Maze of Ith because nobody is going to attack into Deserts – but that still lets you cast things at the endstep! It's even better than Maze because if your opponent has two 1/1s and you have a Maze, they will attack in. If they have two 1/1s and you have a Desert, they are unlikely to attack at all.They have to hope that they have something like a Sword to put on a smaller creature to make it survive a trip through the Sahara. If you play Maze, people will still attack you and make you tap Maze to keep you honest. No such problem with Desert - the mere threat means that they'll stay at home.

I've had a bit of success with super-greedy 4c Gifts decks that run 4 Deserts (27 lands total) that just use Desert to buy a lot of early time until you need to cast that Gifts and take over the game. Desert is a highly-threatening card and it threatens without actually costing you mana if you have instants that you can pour that mana into.

I'd imagine that they make storage lands like Dreadship Reef much more interesting, too. Desert will break parity when their Tarmgoyf is attacking into yours. Desert does nothing against Storm or Twin, but it frees up a lot of space in the deck to handle those sorts of encounters.

Modern is also poised to make Lingering Souls even more of a star. Lingering Souls is a busted card in every non-Vintage format, so let's be clear about that. Getting four separate bodies for five mana is a great bargain, even in Modern. It's revolutionized control strategies, since you can tap out on one turn (or just tap low) for two tokens and see if you can ride them all the way with counters backing up. Alternately, you can use the spell like a Moment's Peace. The only caveat I have about building around Lingering Souls is that Surgical Extraction and Snapcaster Mage will eat your lunch.

Finally, I'll note that Surgical Extraction is a good long-term hold for Modern. It's Phyrexian mana, so it won't be reprinted again in any non-special set. It's better than Extirpate by a long shot. It will always be useful as long as cards like Lingering Souls and Splinter Twin exist, and it will only get better with time. Get your set now and thank me in a year.

Until next week,

Doug Linn

(super excited to write "Grands Prix" in this article, which is even better than writing "Lightning Helices.")

Insider: Supply, Demand and Dark Ascension

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Quick question. Do you know how many people play Magic? Do you know how many people played a year ago, two years, five, ten?

I didn’t think so.

Why does this matter? Well, if you haven’t noticed, the vast majority of Magic players aren’t economists. They look at a card and its playability and immediately link it to its price. What they don’t understand is that playability is just one of a myriad of factors that affect a card’s market price.

Let’s take a recent example to illustrate the point — the fastlands from Scars of Mirrodin (Seachrome Coast and friends). Just a year ago we were trading these away at $3-4 a pop; now they’re pushing all the way up to $15 or $20.

Why is that? Most people will point you towards a few reasons. They’re the best at what they do in Standard. They’ve proven to be Modern-playable. [INSERT DECK NAME] is the best deck this weekend.

And, while they’re not necessarily wrong, I point you to another reason.

The Magic: The Gathering player base has doubled in the last two years.

While Wizards doesn’t release exact numbers on this sort of thing, I’ve talked to enough people whose business it is to know that since Zendikar, there’s been a 100% increase in people playing Magic, with a sizable portion of those new players coming in with Innistrad. We have further evidence of this from director of Magic Aaron Forsythe, who confirmed that Innistrad is the best-selling Magic set of all time.

So what does this have to do with us finding our playset of Seachrome Coasts? In short, it’s the most basic tenet of supply and demand theory. The amount of Coasts on the market is just vastly inferior to the sheer numbers of new players who need it but haven’t cracked a pack of Scars in their lives. That’s how you end up paying $20 for Darkslick Shores.

This principle is also why sets as a whole come down in price after prerelease weekend. As the number of copies on the market increases and demand decreases, prices come down unless there is a factor that causes increased or renewed demand, such as what happened with Geralfs Messenger, a card I advised picking up at the $4 pre-sale price and subsequently jumped to $10 when Zombies broke out a few weeks later.

I realize this information may sound elementary to some of you, but it’s important to spell out this principle before moving into the next section.

Everything old is new again

I referenced Dark Ascension in the title of this article, and I plan to go into detail in a few moments. But first we need to take a trip back in time to a world where Putrid Leech was king and our buddy Jace, the Mind Sculptor was new.

When Worldwake was released, people initially didn’t understand just how absurd Jace was, since Bloodbraid Elf into Blightning kept the big guy in check. The ZZW draft format wasn’t the most exciting ever, and packs of Worldwake weren’t cracked nearly as much as Zendikar packs were.

Fast forward six months. People drafted the hell out of Rise of the Eldrazi and Standard was rotating. Soon Valakut decks were destroying Standard until our man Jace and unlikely buddies Stoneforge Mystic and some birds became the solution that quickly turned into the problem. Demand for Jace and Stoneforge Mystic skyrocketed, and Stoneforge set the then-ceiling (until Snapcaster Mage came along) for a rare in the post-Mythic era at $20-22.

While $20 Stoneforges weren’t enjoyable, it had nothing on $100 Jaces. We all know the ending to this story, with both cards getting the axe in Standard, but it’s easy to forget about just what caused these prices to go as high as they did because it was easy to point out why they were so expensive. They’re the best at what they do in Standard. They’ve proven to be Extended and Legacy-playable. CawBlade is the best deck this weekend.

And, just like with Seachrome Coast, these statements weren’t wrong. But also just like Seachrome Coast, they don’t tell the whole story. The fact was that the amount of Worldwake that was opened just couldn’t compare to the demand for these singles on the market.

Which brings us back to Dark Ascension.

Why this matters NOW

Even if I didn’t just spell them out, the comparisons between Worldwake and Dark Ascension should be obvious. Each will opened for three months one pack at a time in draft and then fall off the face of the Earth when the third set comes out. Each set had one chase Mythic (Jace and Sorin, Lord of Innistrad), with a lower number of exciting rares when it was released.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the number of Dark Ascension boxes ordered was down significantly compared to Innistrad. People complained that there wasn’t any reason to order boxes, and though this problem was alleviated somewhat when Huntmaster broke out at the Pro Tour (which I also called the week prior), the number of boxes sold around the time of the prerelease, when demand is at its highest, was down.

This has created a perfect storm, and one we can use to our advantage in the next few weeks.

Applying it

I’ve touched on most of these at some point in the past, but now that we’re deeper into the set it’s time to revisit the subject. In about three weeks Avacyn Restored is going to hit your Local Game Store and we will all be enamored with the Helvault and subsequently forget all about Dark Ascension and its playable cards.

That is why we must act now, before we start to see the supply begin to dry up in trade binders and before prices begin to creep up. Using purely substantiated and historical evidence, it’s not a stretch at all to conclude that prices from Dark Ascension are at their lowest, and this is a short list of the cards I’m stocking up on now in preparation for the next year and a half of Dark Ascension’s run through Standard.

Mythics as a whole

Remember Mythics like Dragonmaster Outcast, which never even saw a hint of Constructed play, are sold out at $6 on SCG, and seven of the 10 Mythics from Worldwake are at least $2.50 on SCG, which means most of them will fetch a dollar or two from a dealer. Looking at Dark Ascension, now is the time to target cards like Mikaeus, the Unhallowed, Beguiler of Wills, Elbrus, the Binding Blade and Moonveil Dragon as throw-ins while they’re basically free in trade. While it’s unlikely any of these will break out somewhere and explode in value, they are an easy way to start picking up a few bucks in “free” dealer bait with the goal of cashing out in a year or two.

The “Increasing” cycle

I’m particularly fond of Increasing Confusion, which has the mill pedigree behind it (just look at Mind Funeral’s price), and will stay popular casually forever. People literally give these away now, and that won’t stay true forever. Even Archive Trap, which was from a large set, will move to dealers at a dollar, which adds up when you can get dozens of Increasing Confusions thrown in over the next month.

Impacting every format yesterday. Time to move on these.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

This is one of my favorite speculation targets at the moment. She sells for $5 on SCG right now, but you can get her at $3-4 in trade, which won’t last too much longer. She’s found a home in nearly every format and will eventually break out in Standard, even if it’s not until after rotation. I fully expect to be able to double up Thalia in a year or so.

Dungeon Geists

Geists has been on-again, off-again great in Standard, and after rotation that could definitely move to strictly “on-again.” Don’t overpay for these, but start to hoard them if you can.

Geralfs Messenger/Gravecrawler

The world caught on and these rightly hit $10. Zombies has fallen off in the last few weeks, but I think we can safely assume they’ll be back with a vengeance come rotation if not sooner. Again, I don’t like overpaying on current market value here, but there’s very little risk in hoarding these since they will always trade well and could be $15-20 without much of a problem. Also not a bad idea to grab Zombie Apocalypse at 10 cents apiece.

Hellrider

This guy is all over block, and holds the distinction of being another card I called during Prerelease weekend (I've been on a roll with DKA callshots). The initial price jump is behind us, but if he is as prevalent in Standard as he was in Block pre-bannings he’ll easily jumped past $5 and move closer to $7-10.

Ghoultree

My 94 Splinterfrights and I want self-mill to become a real thing in Standard one day (and it could happen), but if nothing else these cards trade well since casual players love to Fling them some Ghoultree.

Predator Ooze

This already randomly shows up on buylists for a dollar, and that is already enough of a reason to get them for free.

Vault of the Archangel

Get in on this now at a buck or two in trade. It is an EDH thing and will probably be even more of a Standard thing, which means this will settle around $4-5 in a year.

Uncommons

I’ve talked before about the Uncommon cycle of “beast lords,” which includes the three captains and Immerwolf. Also you should obviously be grabbing every Lingering Souls in existence, since the card is insane across almost every format and will easily sell to dealers for up to two bucks in a year. This is definitely the Inquisition of Kozilek of the set.

Strangleroot Geist is also a very safe hold, though it was also a 4-of in an event deck.

Foils commons/Uncommons to look out for

Faithless Looting

Tragic Slip

Lingering Souls

Thought Scour

As always, thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Avacyn Restored Images Released!

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Avacyn Restored is right around the corner and images from the new set are beginning to trickle in!

The boxes, fat packs and event deck images have all been released, with names and art of new cards from the set in Full HD glory!

You can find the full, original post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Prepping for Spoiler Season

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The last week before official previews week is always a little slow in the world of finance. We’ve gotten our first preview of Avacyn herself, and she’s certainly going to be a popular EDH card but not likely to be worth investing in. The real question is what can we be doing now to either gamble or hedge for the next set? Time for some speculation in the most literal sense of the word.

What we know we’ll see:


The completion of the Enemy Colored Utility Land cycle, We have still to see U/R, U/G and R/W utility lands. What types of lands will these be and will they create new decks or complement existing decks at all? My good friend John Kasari has been doing very well with his Wolf Run Blue deck, which combines the power of the classic G/R ramp deck, and adds the tempo cards of Frost Titan and Vapor Snag. He finished 13th at the GP in Salt Lake City, and Top 8 at a Star City only a couple months back with this list. He told me personally when Dark Ascension was spoiling that he was really hoping for an awesome utility land for this deck.

The only card currently in the deck that has some room to grow is Frost Titan. As we’ve seen many times before, the Titans tend to cycle around in popularity, and it may be Frost Titan’s time to shine. You can find it around $2, and I don't expect it to drop any time between now and the end of Standard PTQ season, so I find it as a pretty safe pick-up.

Angels are certainly a theme in this set if the art revealed so far is any sign. Throughout history Angels have been a classic U/W control finisher starting with Serra Angel and most recently Baneslayer Angel. If there’s a solid angel at the 5-6 drop slot, I’m going to strongly consider it. This simply means the Gideon call from last week is indeed a good play. It also tells us that Geist of St Traft is not going anywhere anytime soon.

What we might see:

Are we going to get a G/W human lord? It’s certainly possible, and in reality, it may be all a G/W Gavony Township deck needs to really shine. Township itself probably isn’t going to jump much in price, but Champion of the Parish and Mirran Crusader are the two guys I’m keeping bookmarked with some of my favorite Online Vendors. If spoilers look favorable for Human decks, I plan to buy a boat load of these.

Are we going to get support for Vampires? Vampires, and more in general B/R aggro decks haven’t seen the light of day in quite some time. There’s great removal and burn there, but the cheaper efficient creatures don’t really have a critical mass to form a good deck. If we get a good rare 2-drop for the Vampire deck, I could see this coming into popularity. If so, the biggest gainer would likely be Blackcleave Cliffs which is only $6 right now. If the other “fast lands” are any sign of a ceiling, this could easily hit $12 or more during PTQ season.

We always get new Planeswalkers in each set, but being a large set, we may see as many as three. Will any returning characters appear in new incarnations? Will the U/G ‘walker that’s been rumored for some time finally appear? Unfortunately Planeswalkers are very finicky with respect to their financial value, and there’s not much speculation to be made without seeing exactly what color, cost and ability we’ll be getting out of them. This will obviously be the most anticipated reveal of the Spoiler season.

Flashback (as well as the other mechanics like Morbid and Fateful Hour) will not be returning. So if you were hoping an Altar of the Lost deck, or Burning Vengeance deck would be for real, bad news. But that does mean we’ll get some new mechanics which can potentially open up some value for cards that sit in our bulk binder. If you have any speculation holdings floating around waiting for further Flashback support, it’s not coming.

Wrap Up

I’m very excited for new set, as spoiler season is always the most profitable time of the year, and coinciding with Standard PTQ season is great news for speculators. Keep your eyes peeled for leaks and rumors, and try to keep your buys in things that are fairly safe as even as cards are spoiled there may be other cards that pop up later that hose the strategy you’re speculating in.

See you next week!
Chad Havas
@torerotutor on twitter.

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Chad Havas

Chad has been with Quiet Speculation since January of 2011. He uses price speculation to cover all his costs to keep playing. Follow his journey from format to format and be prepared to make moves at the right times.

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Jason’s Archives: Chapin, Alt Arts & Avacyn Restored’s Helvault

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Greetings, Speculators!

My name is Jason Alt and I have a problem. Since 1996 I have been a Spike. It started innocently enough at first. A quick peek at Top 8 decks on thedojo.com here, a partial rancoredelf spoiler before a prerelease there, nothing hardcore. Soon it had spiraled out of control. I found I had to win 2 or 3 FNMs a month just to get the same buzz. I really hit rock bottom when I was selling Magic cards just to pay for my addiction. I needed help, so I turned to the most reliable source of useful and scientifically accurate advice - the internet.

Maybe you are where I was. Have you ever found yourself turning your nose up at people playing casual games for no stakes at your local shop? Have you ever dropped after one loss at an FNM? Do you not own an EDH deck? Can you remember the flavor text on Time Warp? Maybe you can still remember when this game used to be fun. Are you still having fun? Maybe you are, and that's great. But maybe you aren't having fun unless you're winning.

I want to share something with you, something that got me through my darkest days when I considered quitting Magic altogether. When I turned to the internet in my despair, I found a world of Magic-related content entirely divorced from building and wielding tournament-caliber decks.

Some of it doesn't even have to do with actually playing the game at all.

I humbly offer it here for your consideration. Think of it as something to cleanse your palate after an afternoon spent trying to optimize Delver or your sideboard for Maverick. I have mined the farthest reaches of the internet to find you unique and entertaining content that will hopefully make Magic fun again (or if it is, even more fun).

Without further ado, I present my archives.

Pat Chapin on Reddit.com

First up we have a rare glimpse into the mind of a true innovator. Pat Chapin took some time to do a Q&A over at reddit.com.  Pat spills his guts about playtesting, his book and even his favorite artwork. This is a quick read and well worth checking out if you’re a fan of “the innovator”.

Accessorize

Next we have a group of talented and creative Magic enthusiasts who are helping the rest of us accessorize.

Leather Deckbox

First up, Redditor MurderSheScrote shared this gem with us.

A functioning deckbox made from leather by his wife, Samantha who is a leatherworker. If you’re jealous of his cool swag, Samantha has an etsy page etsy.com/shop/TaeliacStudio and can make custom deckboxes to order. I’m waiting on a TARDIS deckbox myself. I see the appeal of a box that’s small enough to fit in your bag but is big enough on the inside for your entire collection.

Alterations

Redditor Miss_Kitteh posted a pic of some gorgeous full art islands she altered, making it clear she does commissions:

Hit her up on Reddit to arrange custom alters. Keep up the good work!

Custom Playmats

Lots of posters on the MTGsalvation forums suggested InkedPlaymats.com as the go-to source for making a custom playmat with the image of your choice.

I ran into Magic artist Drew Baker at GP Indianapolis, who also does custom playmats as well: DrewBaker.com. I’m currently rocking a Drew Baker playmat of an original piece Drew did featuring the Planeswalker Garruk Wildspeaker.

Have you gotten a custom playmat? Post a link to a pic in the comments and let everyone see.

Custom Expansions Expansions

Starcraft

In my search for original magic content I stumbled across something that blew my mind. Redditor efofecks created an entire expansion set based on Starcraft complete with decklists for each race and a visual spoiler. I ported the files to Magic Workstation and tooled around for a bit with some friends and we had a blast. You don’t have to be a fan of Starcraft to get a kick out of this expansion, but it can’t hurt. Kudos to efofecks!

Rise of the Titans

If Starcraft isn’t your thing but you like fan-made expansions, check out Rise of the Titans over at misterorange.com. At 295 cards and custom mechanics, this must have taken forever to complete. Follow the links on the site to other forums to discuss your favorite cards.

Other Tidbits

Nicknames

To lighten the mood a bit, MTGsalvation forum users have been giving nicknames to their cards. Some are intuitive and some are… well, you’d better see for yourself.

Whats In the Helvault?

Over at The Mothership, players are discussing what could possibly be in the Helvault at the Avacyn Restored prerelease. Personally, I hope it’s a swarm of starving, angry hornets. Or candy.

The Past Weekends' Events

SCG Bronze TCQ in Grand Rapids, Michigan

Last weeked was a sort of a slow weekend for events, but one highlight for me was the SCG Bronze TCQ in Grand Rapids, Michigan, won by Kalamazoo's own Deshaun Baylock. Check out the Top 8. Way to go, D!

Grand Prix Kuala Lampur

Grand Prix Kuala Lampur finished with Yuuya Watanabe coming out on top.

Star City Invitational

The Star City Invitational gave us a glimpse into some new possibilities with a birthing pod deck taking the top honor. Azorious and esper are still king though, with mage blade and UW spirits predominating the top 32.

Grand Prix Salt Lake City

Delver was the winning deck in Salt Lake city, but it's impossible to ignore the RG we've been seeing. RG aggro, Naya pod, wolf run; there are a lot of applications for Huntmaster of the Fells it seems.

Will equipping Delvers and Stalkers still be relevant when Avacyn finds itself restored? I'll leave it to you to speculate.

That's All

for you this week! Let us know in the comments if you're picking up what I'm putting down. If you want me to find some more of these undiscovered gems, I'm glad to mine the vast, unexplored reaches of the interwebs.

Until next we meet,

Jason Alt

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: How to Drive Sales

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Last week I discussed some valuable strategies for locating bargains throughout the realms of the internet without taking on much risk. Wise eBay searches, desperate Cardshark sellers and patient browsing through MOTL were all recommendations.

Some readers even commented with additional suggestions, such as identifying underpriced EDH foils at your local gaming stores.

After all these purchases are made, the next logical step is to unload these cards for profit. There are a vast number of strategies people will implement for selling their cards. I will not pretend that my strategy is the optimal one.

Instead, my approach will be outlined below in a categorical way, with optimal opportunities falling within each subset depending on an array of circumstances. In the end, selling is all driven by your personal goals and is not “one size fits all”. So I will illustrate some of my own goals.

Inventory Costs Money

Companies on Wall Street are constantly striving to reduce inventory. There’s a very good reason for this – inventories cost money. They need to be maintained, kept organized and stored in a particular space. This is true no matter what the items are for sale.

(Picture courtesy of http://managementstudyguide.com/inventory-costs.htm)

Maintaining an inventory of Magic Cards likewise has associated costs. I have only so many pages in a binder without risking overstuffing them. Additionally, holding value in terms of cards is much less liquid than holding actual cash. Thus, opportunity cost is a factor. Finally, I spend hours a month sorting and resorting my stock to make sure my binders are organized satisfactorily and my sales list is up to date.

Bearing this in mind, my primary objective with selling cards is to turn over inventory as fluidly and consistently as possible. Again, this is driven by my realization, that like in the stock market, holding a card indefinitely is often a poor investment choice. Sure, in MTG there may be exceptions, such as some cards I expect will rise in value over time, but these cards only make up a small portion of my diverse portfolio – the majority of cards are maximized if sold immediately.

With this context in mind, let me now dive into a few different approaches to selling cards. With each approach I’ll provide a synopsis of strategy along with pros and cons.


(Picture courtesy of http://yumclips.com/show/traft)

First Stop: MOTL

When it comes to buying, MOTL is often towards the bottom of my priority list. Sifting through endless lists of overpriced cards is not the most fruitful task. Selling, on the other hand, is ideal with this online site.

You have endless freedoms here. You can set your own prices, list as many cards as you’d like and set up a set of personal rules – all with no fees and no unreasonable limits.

Everyone has their own strategies for grouping cards and establishing prices. Again, mine is likely not fully optimized. But in achieving my goal of holding cards in inventory for small amounts of time, my approach works rather well.

I begin by sorting my cards by format, then I list the pricier cards towards the top – they are first ones seen and most likely to be scooped up. They also attract attention, so that prospective buyers will see that you have cards worth browsing. Finally, I set competitive prices.

Because I’m not a retailer, I simply cannot expect to achieve 100% margins. I can attempt to buy cards at Star City Games’ buylist prices all day, but I would accumulate very little. Likewise, selling at retail prices on MOTL will only gain you insults and disrespect (harsh world!). Therefore, when looking to quickly flip cards I’ve acquired at bargain prices, I seek to price my cards to match some of the cheapest completed eBay listings. Profits will never be fully maximized (one downside to MOTL) but recall that my goal is quick, small profits to turn over inventory.

This, I feel, is a sweet spot for pricing cards I am anxious to sell. I win because even if I listed an auction on eBay and it closed higher, fees would not make the endeavor worthwhile. Buyers win because they don’t have to navigate through endless eBay auctions and lose bid after bid until they achieve this minimal price. I have sold many cards rapidly using this technique.

As a quick aside, this is generally my price ceiling when buying cards. If I can acquire cards below the lower quartile of eBay ended auctions, I am inclined to pull the trigger. Now you can appreciate why this is my price point for buying – it enables me the most opportunity to make a little profit. And since I’m not seeking to make a full fledged living from this endeavor, I am more than happy with accepting a 10% profit margin if it means I’ve sold the card immediately. This to me is far more valuable than holding a card for months until I’ve improved my margins to 20%.

Twitter – (yes you can sell cards through Twitter)

Sometimes my desire to sell a particular card is even more pressing. Perhaps I’ve acquired a card at an incredibly cheap price. Perhaps I’ve speculated on a couple cards and they are at a price peak. Or perhaps I’ve failed at selling cards on MOTL and I really need to unload them.

In all these cases, I turn to Twitter as a means of selling instantaneously. Like MOTL, it is completely free to sell via Twitter and there are no unreasonable limits to what you can sell. Of course, if your prices are not highly competitive, you’re likely to be ignored (or worse, unfollowed). Therefore you need to be careful in how you implement this venue for selling cards.

First, I do a bit of research to decide upon a price. The cost for your “deal of the day” should be cheaper than any major online venue, perhaps even including eBay. This will ensure the cards will sell. Also, it helps to keep the transaction simple – after all, you only have 140 characters to work with. A recent tweet of mine that earned a sale was:

I know that Standard rotation is approaching, and I don’t want to be stuck holding these niche cards for long. Therefore, I decided a small loss was acceptable here if I could earn a quick sale. The cards had been listed for a week on MOTL with no takers, and such a quick sale on eBay would have meant a larger loss due to fees. I tried Twitter, and sure enough within the hour the cards were sold.

Of course having followers helps – this is a downside to using Twitter. But do a few modest giveaways and make a few quick sale purchases, and you’ll have a couple hundred followers before you know it!

Selling Through eBay – A Last Resort

Ebay will generally side with buyers when settling any disagreement between buyer and seller – no matter what the issue is with the transaction. Fees are paid solely by buyers. With these two downsides to eBay, I only sell cards on this venue as a last resort.

Usually, if my competitively priced cards aren’t selling on MOTL or Twitter, and I see that eBay completed auctions are closing more than 10% above my asking price, I take a chance on eBay. I try to sell through this auction site only when I can at least break even after fees.

As you can imagine, this is a rare occurrence. Sometimes obscure items are best sold on eBay. For example, I recently sold a sealed Coldsnap Booster Box through eBay:


Notice how I structured this listing: a) I listed the item as an auction so I did not have to pay listing fees, b) I set the starting bid price around my desired sell price, so as to avoid selling the item too cheaply yet not having to use a reserve, and c) I charge a fair shipping price so I don’t lose money or pay more fees by offering free shipping.

This is the only way I sell on eBay these days, and it seems to work fairly well when the need arises. It’s not optimal, but it does maximize your chances of selling the item because you are reaching the largest audience.

Selling vs. Holding – You Decide

As I mentioned before, I’d prefer selling for a small loss to holding cards for an unknown period of time. The sooner I obtain additional cash, the sooner I can seek out new bargains to profit from.

My approach to selling cards online should reflect this overall objective. If your preference is to maximize profit margins on your cards, be prepared to hold inventory for much longer. For some, that is acceptable. For me, opportunity cost is a real factor and I recognize the expenses incurred from holding inventory. Therefore, I strive to sell my inventory rapidly. The result is a win-win scenario, where I can flip my inventory at a rapid pace while offering competitive prices to prospective buyers.

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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The Changing Face of Birthing Pod

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An old power has recently returned to Standard. Though you may not know it from its price tag ($3), Birthing Pod is back in force and looks like it’s here to stay.

The Birthing Pod list that top-eighted Pro Tour Dark Ascension seemed to quietly escape everyone’s notice. Lately though, Pod has put up a string of high finishes including a win at the Star City Games Invitational in Baltimore. Pros such as Brian Kibler, who himself piloted a Pod deck to 10th place in Baltimore, have begun to write about the deck.

In short, Birthing Pod is the real deal.

About a month ago I wrote an article advocating for Birthing Pod, which you can read here. Today I'll talk about the reasons for Pod's resurgence and walk you through a couple lists.

Shifting Position in the Metagame

What caused Birthing Pod to jump from fringe tier-two status to competitive all-star in so short a time?

Answering this question will help us to better understand why decks appear or resurface when they do. Changes in the metagame do not develop haphazardly, but rather as a natural product of earlier developments. Understanding how this process works can give you a huge leg up on the competition when it comes to deck selection.

The Standard metagame is often shaped by a series of shifts that seem to cascade from one to the next. We can identify one of these chain reactions in recent developments that ultimately worked to the benefit of Pod decks.

It began with Zombies’ sharp rise in popularity, which sent Wolf Run into a downward spiral because of its terrible Zombies matchup. As fewer Wolf Run decks made an appearance, their natural prey became more viable. This set the stage for Birthing Pod, now free from the threat of its worst match-up, to become a major contender.

Of course, the situation could just as easily shift further to undermine Pod strategies once again. For example, if Zombies were to decrease in numbers, Pod may be adversely affected.

That being said, I don’t think Zombies is likely to drop significantly in popularity unless Avacyn Restored really shakes things up. Tribal decks always enjoy a strong following which will carry the deck even if it loses some of its power.

The takeaway here is the importance of monitoring the metagame carefully when making deck choices. A deck that proved viable in the past may be a poor choice right now. Alternately, a deck that was underpowered before may be set up for a revival.

Before you rush in to commit to a particular strategy, make sure you’ve considered these possibilities.

Some Successful Decklists

Several different takes on Birthing Pod have recently put up good results. Here are a few to give you an idea:

Max Tietze's Naya Pod
Star City Games Invitational – 1st Place

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Strangleroot Geist
1 Viridian Emissary
3 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Acidic Slime
1 Archon of Justice
1 Geist-Honored Monk
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Sun Titan
1 Inferno Titan
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Spells

1 Oblivion Ring
3 Green Suns Zenith
4 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
2 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

1 Acidic Slime
2 Hero of Bladehold
2 Oblivion Ring
2 Act of Aggression
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Celestial Purge
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Arc Trail

Brian Kibler's Naya Pod
Star City Games Invitational – 10th Place

Untitled Deck

Creatures

1 Llanowar Elves
3 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Acidic Slime
1 Vorapede
1 Inferno Titan

Spells

2 Oblivion Ring
2 Garruk Relentless
1 Green Suns Zenith
2 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
3 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
2 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

1 Grafdiggers Cage
3 Daybreak Ranger
2 Hero of Bladehold
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Celestial Purge
1 Combust
2 Ray of Revelation
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Both of these decks tend toward the aggressive side of the spectrum and are capable of applying lots of pressure. They are also designed to function consistently even without a Birthing Pod.

Strangleroot Geist, Blade Splicer and Huntmaster of the Fells are the core creatures. They appear in multiples because you want to draw them early and often.

The singleton creatures, obviously useful as tutor targets and Pod sacrifices, are also strong enough in their own right to be reasonable draws. The risk of drawing too many high-cost creatures is offset by a plentiful supply of mana acceleration.

Finally, note that both decks contain multiple copies of Gavony Township. This land is powerful enough to see play in Modern and certainly adds a lot of value here too.

The decks differ in a few significant ways.

First of all, Kibler’s mana curve is much lower, stopping at a mere single six-drop where Tietze has three sixes and one seven.

Kibler’s build seems to respond to a philosophy of an aggro deck that happens to have Birthing Pod in it. The inclusion of only two copies of Pod also points in this direction.

Another major difference, which may not seem that important at first glance, is the presence of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Between his maindeck and sideboard Kibler has access to the full set, whereas Tietze did not include the card at all. I think Thalia is an important inclusion as she does a lot to improve several matchups.

Finally, Kibler has access to Vorapede, which beats up on control opponents effectively.

Settling on a Build

In general I like the direction Kibler has taken the deck in, so I’ll start there for my version. There are just a few things I would change.

To begin with, I don’t think Garruk Relentless belongs in the deck. Once flipped, he does get to search up the various tutor targets, but he’s relatively clunky and doesn’t synergize with Birthing Pod itself.

If I were going to run a planeswalker, I would choose Gideon Jura instead. Gideon seems to do Garruk’s job better and will have a much larger impact on the aggressive matchups.

The next change I would make is to trim the number of one-mana accelerants. With a low curve and lots of two-drops, the deck will be less reliant on acceleration. The recent resurgence of Gut Shot is another reason to shy away from running a glut of vulnerable X/1s.

There are a couple cards absent from both lists that I feel are too good not to include.

The first is Hellrider. Much like Gavony Township, Hellrider makes all your random dorks better and provides much needed reach in the late game. If you can land a Huntmaster of the Fells and follow it up by podding Blade Splicer into Hellrider you can smash for a boatload of damage. One copy should suffice to add this dimension to the deck.

The other card that has impressed me is Lead the Stampede. It’s common to draw three or four cards off of Lead the Stampede, which lets you overwhelm your opponent in a game stall. That kind of card advantage is hard to come by in Standard unless you’re casting Consecrated Sphinx.

Here’s how I would build Birthing Pod:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Strangleroot Geist
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Blade Splicer
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Fiend Hunter
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
1 Hellrider
1 Acidic Slime
1 Vorapede
1 Inferno Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine

Spells

2 Oblivion Ring
2 Lead the Stampede
3 Birthing Pod

Lands

6 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Copperline Gorge
2 Gavony Township
4 Razorverge Thicket
3 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove

Sideboard

4 Tectonic Rift
2 Gideon Jura
1 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Ray of Revelation
1 Grafdiggers Cage
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Daybreak Ranger

As you can see, my list is a hybrid of the two decks above, but a little closer to Kibler’s.

The aggressive curve here is complemented by several ways to disrupt your opponent. The [card Oblivion Ring]Oblivion Rings[/card] get you out of a lot of tough situations and come highly recommended. As for [card Thalia, Guardian of Thraben]Thalia[/card], I think three is the right number but I could see cutting one to make room for something else.

The [card Tectonic Rift]Tectonic Rifts[/card] in the board are my tech for the Wolf Run matchup. Right now I’m bringing them in to replace Thalia, which becomes worse post-board in the face of their extra removal.

While it may seem like a crazy choice, I can assure you Tectonic Rift has tested quite well. In addition to setting them back a turn by destroying a land, it can set up an alpha strike through any number of blockers.

The Final Touches

One of the cool things about Birthing Pod decks is how they can be customized to fit different play styles.

My version aims to be as aggressive as possible and use Pod to push through damage in the later turns, but you could just as easily build Pod to occupy a more controlling role.

Several of the one-ofs can also be switched out for other options. At each point on the curve there are a large number of viable creatures that advance different strategies. When changing things up, just remember to keep in mind your overall game plan and include the creatures that work best towards that goal.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force of Birthing Pod!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Applying The System

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Last week, I detailed the method that Kelly and I have used to make hundreds while minimizing our risk. It's a growing process and we've made several mistakes along with plenty of successes. This week, I'll go over some of our previous purchases, along with some predictions for good cards to pick up.

You've got to cover your spread

One of the things that Kelly and I had to learn early on was to protect our profits from really wild speculation. This means that you should be very wary of grabbing things with zero retail value. When we saw Caleb Durward's R/W deck, we were really excited about both Buried Ruin and Razor Hippogriff. Excited to the tune of grabbing 242 Hippogriffs at three pennies apiece. That was $7.26 that we just threw away, because the birds had no resale value, nor do they have any now. If Caleb had T8ed, we could have bought them then - it's an uncommon and there would have been infinite copies still available. As it was, the deck never took off and we blew money that we'd already made on other margins. I endorse taking really crazy risks on cards sometimes, but this was one that didn't pay off and had little chance of paying off.

In this instance, we didn't cover our losses to manage our risk. That $7.26 doesn't look like much, but that amount is scary because it represents undisciplined speculating that was 100% risk. If you're picking up a few different cards on an order and you don't stick to the 40% risk that I talked about last week, you can end up obliterating real gains with long shots.

Decide whether to get out, and get out quickly.

Here's another cautionary tale. When we bought those Hippogriffs, we also jumped onto Buried Ruin. At the time, it was a quarter and it could sell back for 20 cents. That's an incredible margin - only 20% between its buy and sell price! We were correct in grabbing it at the time; Caleb's deck really depended on the Ruins, so if it did well, we would turn a nice profit. But unfortunately, RW Control isn't exactly tearing up the tables right now. When the deck did not perform well on the weekend of PT: DKA, we should have gotten rid of what we'd sunk into them at a 20% loss. Ruins are down to about 10 cents apiece on buylists, meaning we are now out 60% of what we put into them.

As a postscript, we are holding onto the Ruins at this point, since we don't think they'll ever sell for less than ten cents. If we stuck to our guns and cleared out what didn't gain, we would have still made plenty of money and we would have recovered some of what we have now lost. The chance to make up the money we lost gets smaller by the day, though.

Keep a list of good sources for buying and selling.

You need to work with accurate information. Quiet Speculation is developing some excellent pricing software - if you see Kelly at an event, have him show you our beta iPhone app - but right now, readers must work a little harder for good info. I use TCGPlayer for buy prices; they are very upfront about the cost of shipping cards and you can assemble orders from multiple stores on the site and only pay once. They also have some crazy voodoo gris-gris that prevents most of our big orders from getting stopped because we're clearing people out of cards. I've tried to assemble a good selection of buylists, and it's worth checking Troll & Toad, Coolstuffinc and StrikeZone. I usually end up just going to BidWicket and checking buy prices from stores on there. It's not the prettiest site, but it typically does have the highest buy prices.

Solid picks and analysis

Drogskol Captain Buy: 0.80/sell 0.50 37.5% margin

I know that we've talked about these for awhile and while they didn't pick up after PT:DKA like I thought they would, I still believe that this lord is a steal at under a dollar. Lingering Souls is a real mistake of a card and this makes it much better. Duplicating this with Phantasmal Image is really bonkers, too. It hasn't seen a huge amount of play, but Tom Martell just T8'd PT: SLC today with what is basically an updated version of Jon Finkel's Esper Spirits deck. While a single Spirit token isn't great these days, a couple spirits with Vault of the Archangel backup is worth talking about. We're sitting on these for October when Ratchet Bomb rotates, but they might jump sooner when people are looking for more UW Delver tech.

Dungeon Geists Buy: $3.00/Sell $2.25 25% margin

Like I mentioned last week, hot cards often have really low margins. simplistic_1 corroborated this in the response to the article last week - as a buyer for a store, he's willing to pay more for hot standard cards because he knows they'll sell. Dungeon Geists is an unlikely standard hit (and one that we called at $1.00, by the way!) and it's an important facet of the Delver mirrors. UW Delver decks lack good removal, so a Geist locking down their guy and swinging in the air for three damage is pretty solid. I'm reminder of Sower of Temptation in that regard. This isn't as good as Sower, but it's still incredible. At a 25% margin, we've just got to see this hit about $5.00 for this bet to really sing. PT:SLC had Delvers in over half of the decks present and we're a month from a new set, so Geists could really take center stage soon.

I wish I could call a big pile of good cards right now, but Standard is just the Delver deck and the anti-Delver deck at the moment, with occasional Zombies tossed in. There are few interesting changes, which is why we were not exactly blowing up your inboxes with hot tech from Salt Lake City this weekend. In May, Avacyn Restored will come out and the whole staff of QS is looking forward to a changing Standard environment. Cards like Hellrider and Lingering Souls are otherwise-solid bets, but they don't meet the 40% margin threshold that we're looking for with short-term speculation.

As always, I am happy to answer questions in the feedback!

Until next week,

Doug Linn

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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CommanderCast S5E12 | Call-InFerno Mk. 4

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The heaven and earth part to make way for a union of manly souls, and the fire burns bright across the internet, torching through your speakers! It's the Call-InFerno! In another audience-participation episode of CommanderCast, Andy and Donovan are joined by some brave Commander players who jump onto the audioscape adventure though the annals of EDH for another variety episode that might result in excessive enlightenment! A blitz-format roundtable with five topics discussed for roughly fifteen minutes each.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

For more Wrexial-Approved stuff, hit up http://www.commandercast.com/

CommanderCast S5E11 | Break All The Rules

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This week's podcast is full of rules bending, breaking, loopholing, and more. It's CommanderCast S5E11 with guest host Scott Holmes! From the standard roster, Andy is joined by Byron and Sean for another installment in Audience Appreciation Month where we discuss topics generated by the audience.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

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CommanderCast S5E10 | The Power of the Intertron

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It's CommanderCast S5E10, which is another episode in the continuing audience appreciation month. To keep up appearances, we've asked Andrew Magrini to help spit fire into the Knowledge Pool of Commander players everywhere. Also joining me on the journey of discovery is Scott from the Eh Team and together the three of us discuss a variety of audience-provided topics, including the power of the internet, ways to handle dead card in hand, and more.

Hit the button or play, or download the entire episode! The full show notes are here.

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