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Standard: Underrated and Overrated

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The world of Standard is constantly evolving. Just like any new format, players are working on new strategies all the time. The difference between this Standard and previous formats is the depth provided by the new set. Return to Ravnica has many more playable cards for constructed formats than we are used to seeing, which means more decks are possible.

Today I want to look at some cards I think have been misevaluated in Standard. Some cards players think too highly of and others are hidden gems that not many people are playing yet. Let’s get started.

Overrated

Avacyn's Pilgrim and Arbor Elf

Games in Standard do not end quickly. Certainly Zombies of any kind can win reasonably fast, but we are talking turn four with the best possible hand and turn five or six is more reasonable. Do we really need to waste time and cards casting a one-mana accelerant that will most likely get killed the following turn?

If the only reason you're playing these cards is to jump to three mana, I think that is the wrong line of thinking. A deck like Frites may need these cards to function quickly enough to win games, but other decks should probably not play them. If every game is going long enough for you to hit six mana, wouldn’t you rather have a more impactful spell?

Azorius Charm

This may be a shock to you, but I don’t actually like this charm right now. What is it good against? It is definitely good against Zombies, but from the testing I have done, that’s about it. Do you really want to put creatures with haste or enters the battlefield abilities back on top of the deck? This doesn't slow the game down much at all. The cycling ability is OK and the lifelink ability is good occasionally but four of this card seems a stretch and it might be right to cut it entirely. On the surface it seems amazing, but when the games actually play out you end up using the draw a card option more than you’d like.

Golgari Charm

The fact that players are including this in the main baffles me. Let’s break down the three abilities.

-1/-1 to all creatures is a good ability in a format with a lot of one-toughness creatures, which is not the case for our current Standard. This ability should be at its best against Zombies but it doesn't even kill many of their creatures. As for destroying enchantments, there are a decent number of Detention Spheres running around and occasionally you might want to kill one, but I don’t think that's a maindeck ability. The third ability, regenerate each creature you control, is great if half of the decks you were playing against were casting Supreme Verdict. Obviously this is not the case.

So is this card playable? Yes, but it really shouldn't be in the maindeck. I would side this in against any control deck with both blue and white but that’s about it.

Underrated

Pack Rat

It's hard to remember the last time a rat saw play in Standard. The times I can think of were original Ravnica Standard when we had Ravenous Rats and Hellhole Rats. OK, so maybe it was just me playing Hellhole Rats, but they were amazing! Before that, there were some in Kamigawa Block, but it was a major creature type in the block so some were bound to be playable.

Basically, Pack Rat is part of a tribe most players dismiss as unplayable, but it merits a closer look. The first indication is that many players at the Grand Prix last weekend were naming Pack Rat as the best card in Return to Ravnica Limited. When a card dominates Limited, often that carries over to Constructed.

Several aspects of this card make it better than it looks. First is its mana cost, the gold standard for playable creatures in Standard. The fact that it's a 1/1 is a little unappealing, but it shouldn’t stay that way for long. Also, making a token doesn't require tapping the rat, which means you can use the ability multiple times per turn. Some players did not realize this and that caused undervaluation. Another part that is misread is the fact that you can discard any card. People tend to think that you need to discard a creature, similar to Lotleth Troll, but that is not the case.

Finally, Pack Rat makes copies of itself, not some other kind of tokens. That means if your opponent kills one of the rats, you still have the card in play even if it is a token copy. These abilities together make for a resilient creature.

Veilborn Ghoul

When I am evaluating a card for constructed play, a five mana creature with less power than its mana cost and a drawback like can’t block gets dismissed fairly quickly. The only exception is if the creature has a relevant ability as well. No worries with Veilborn Ghoul though, he doesn’t have a good ability to go with those stats. Or does he? When you play a swamp, return him from your graveyard to your hand. I guess that’s OK if the format is slow as molasses. What if we think outside the box? Is there another way we can abuse this ability?

Maybe a repeatable discard outlet like Pack Rat. We could also discard to Lotleth Troll which is a powerful interaction. If you play Lotleth Troll on turn two, discard Veilborn Ghoul, play your land on turn three and discard again, your troll is already a 4/3!

Necropolis Regent

Let’s get something out of the way. This is not a bulk mythic. With no titans in Standard, we need to change how we evaluate expensive creatures. Think about how this card plays out for a second. The game is progressing evenly and on turn six you play this giant flying vampire. (You opponent stops to read the card because they have never seen it before.) They think nothing of it and are not worried.

The next turn you attack for six damage in the air and put six +1/+1 counters on your vampire. Next turn you're swinging for twelve in the air. If your opponent took damage from their lands or you dealt them any damage before you played her, they are dead. Once you realize this vampire is a two turn clock, she seems much better.

That's to say nothing of the situation where you already have creatures in play when you cast her. Then we are talking about doubling the size of your army! I think Necropolis Regent could be the finisher for a control deck or the top end of a midrange aggro deck. She will close the game out so quickly, your opponent won’t know what hit them.

How can we use these underrated cards?

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Gravecrawler
4 Diregraf Ghoul
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Pack Rat
4 Geralfs Messenger
4 Dreg Mangler
4 Veilborn Ghoul

Spells

3 Crippling Blight
3 Rancor
3 Tragic Slip

Lands

4 Woodland Cemetery
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Cavern of Souls
2 Golgari Guildgate
9 Swamp

This version of Zombies increases the resiliency of the deck a lot by adding Pack Rat and Veilborn Ghoul. I think ideally the Pack Rat is better on turn five when you can discard immediately, but he is still fine on turn two. Putting Rancor on Veilborn Ghoul if the game goes long seems strong as well. Zombies is a solid aggro deck but this version is just more resilient than some of the other ones I have seen doing well.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Thragtusk
2 Necropolis Regent

Spells

3 Tragic Slip
4 Call of the Conclave
2 Selesnya Charm
4 Intangible Virtue
4 Farseek
4 Lingering Souls
2 Midnight Haunting
3 Garruk Relentless
3 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
2 Oblivion Ring

Lands

2 Isolated Chapel
4 Overgrown Tomb
1 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
2 Woodland Cemetery
3 Gavony Township
1 Vault of the Archangel
3 Forest
2 Plains
3 Swamp

This was the first deck I worked on with Necropolis Regent. You may notice the remarkable similarity to the winning deck from Star City Providence, but that is just a coincidence. One of the main differences is my lack of one drops because of the reasons I stated above.

I am still tweaking numbers with this deck but the idea is solid. The goal is to make a continuous stream of creatures with your planeswalkers, trade them off netting virtual card advantage, and then finish your opponent with Necropolis Regent or some Gavony Township activations.

Make sure if you cut the one-mana accelerators as I suggest that you compensate by including more two-drops. For example, I am playing both Farseek and Call of the Conclave as well as a couple Selesnya Charms. These will not only give you plays early in the game but also help you build a stronger board presence.

That’s all for this week. I’m sure there are many more underrated cards that we have yet to discover so keep looking and keep brewing.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Under Dog Force!

Insider: Next!

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Return to Ravnica, and rotation, has shaken up standard beyond all previous recognition, and now the format is starting to take shape. Normally after States there is a little slump in most of the Standard staples, but new decks do leave opportunities for big finds. The goal here is to move our inflated cards out (if you haven’t started doing so this past weekend) and use those resources to look at cards that might slot into, or change existing decks in the near term. Let's look at what to do next.

U/W/(x) Control


This deck appeared twice in the top 8 of the SCG open this past weekend, and we saw variation the week before splashing Red. I overheard pros at the Grand Prix talking about U/W/b control as well, likely splashing in for Lingering Souls and/or Tragic Slip and Sever the Bloodline. Sever the Bloodline is well under $1 right now, and I’m starting to stock up. This card is extremely powerful for control decks, and especially once Watery Grave and the Dimir guild hits Standard in a few months, this card will skyrocket. I’m moving in deep on this card and holding as long as it takes.

We also see the U/W Control decks Sideboarding Jace, Memory Adept to combat other control decks as well as a 5-mana removal for their opponents Jace, Architect of Thought. There was even a deck in the top 8 of this last weekends SCG Open that played one copy of Adept maindeck. At only $5, I don’t expect this card to dip much more, and has a decent chance of spiking a bit if it becomes increasingly popular to fight Jace with other Jaces. While I am not moving in big on these, I am going to pick up a couple sets and watch it closely.

Tokens

We saw a Junk Tokens deck pop up, featuring Armada Wurm, Sorin, Garruk Relentless and Angel of Serenety as the Mythics. Garruk is a reasonable target here, finable on EBay close to $10, while sold out on StarCityGames at $15. I don’t expect any value he picks up to last long, while he’s a powerful card, he’s usually fairly matchup dependant. If he is indeed good right now, the format will shift around him fairly quickly. There was also a Esper Tokens brew using Favorable Winds to pump Midnight Haunting, Lingering Souls and Talrand’s Invocation Tokens. While I like where this deck is going, I don’t like that the Favorable Winds doesn’t Crusade all of the creatures in the deck. I’m not ready to make any moves based on this list as of now.

Reanimator

There are a variety of Reanimator decks floating around. Cheating in a Griselbrand or Angel of Serenety is big game, and until people can definitively stop it (see: Grafdiggers Cage, et al.) it will continue to be around. Since most of the Mythics in this deck are still extremely expensive, I’d like to make a move on the hate cards that will see a bit more play in the short term to counteract that. I think the Cage is a good option at $1.50 while Rest in Peace likely won’t go up much higher than its current $3.

Modern

Separately from States, there is a Modern Pro Tour right around the corner. I expect to see a strong turn-out of Storm decks, which may put a slight spike into Past in Flames and Epic Experiment, two cards that can be found fairly cheaply at the moment. Epic Experiment will only move up a dollar or so, so I wouldn’t be picking them up, but I’d be holding ones I already had for a week or so. Past in Flames however is under $2/set and is a strong play. At the worst, holding them until Modern season early next year is guaranteed to double your money (barring any bannings in the deck which I find unlikely). Fetchlands, especially the blue ones, will pick back up, but you won’t see a return on that until next year so needs to be a move you can be patient with if you want to pick up a 20-30% spike on your money.

Overall you should be moving out your RTR cards for some Innistrad and Modern cards that have potential to gain from new Standard Decks and Modern popularity spike following the Pro-Tour. Watching buy prices on RTR cards slowly fall during the Grand Prix this weekend means you’ve got to act fast if you haven’t gotten rid of things yet, but there will be some cards that bounce back, so we want to watch how low some of these shocklands fall before Modern season gets too hot. We also want to be in anticipation of the remainder of the Modern manabase including Filters and Fetches.

Lastly, finding key hate cards that will shift the matchups of the new Standard decks before they become common knowledge is a big thing. How’s the best way to find those before anyone else does? Test the format. Jam some games with friends and find out what beats the new hot strategy. What sideboard cards break the mirror open? Find a card you believe in and go for it.

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Chad Havas

Chad has been with Quiet Speculation since January of 2011. He uses price speculation to cover all his costs to keep playing. Follow his journey from format to format and be prepared to make moves at the right times.

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Insider: Speculation on the Floor – When Buying is Just Too Much Stress

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It’s been an exciting week here in the world of Magic: The Gathering finance, and I’d like to throw in my two cents on how the format’s shaping up, and what you can do to take advantage of that.

First of all, in the heady rush to get States decks, it’s all too easy to forget that the price of the cards involved is a bubble. While at States, several things stuck out to me as being relevant in a time when every person with economic sense is making their speculative moves on the market.

Me, my speculation was done between 8:30 AM and 9:30 PM Saturday, States.

Crazy Talk

I can imagine what some of you might be thinking, If you’re like me at all, speculation isn’t your thing. The idea of making an educated guess on a low priced card in the hope that it’s positioned well enough for you to cash big is dangerous. And for a risk averse individual like me, the possibility of losing 20, 50, 100 dollars on Urabrask the Hidden gives you cold sweats in the middle of the night.

Speculation, however, is more than just knowing when to buy. For me, speculation is far easier to implement in the form of buying’s polar opposite: the on-site trade.

When a person sits down at states and sees a profound absence of Abrupt Decay, he can use that data to his advantage. The card seemed to be opened an altogether unreasonable amount, and it seemed like there were more floating around the room than people knew what to do with. This read like a neon sign to me, and even if I hadn’t thought about the chance of Abrupt Decay’s value decreasing, the warning signs were all there.

Decay is starting to drop below 10 dollars consistently on ebay, and Star City is down to 15. Even though the the card is absolutely amazing and it seems unlikely that its price floor is as low as some other cards, and even with the comfortable knowledge that it’s got an enormous amount of Legacy potential, it doesn’t feel like a 20 dollar card.

Abrupt Decay suffers from the unfortunate malaise that diseases so many of the potentially explosive cards in Standard- it’s a rare. While my eyes mist over with memories of 20 dollar chase rares holding value for the entire span of their playability in Standard, the era of Wrath of God is past. And a great deal of that is due to a combination of the quantity of product opened, and mythics.

Rares Are Bad, Mmmmkay?

Rather than rant on about the upsides or downsides of mythics, I’d prefer to approach this topic from a more pragmatic direction. Because mythics exist, and are probably here to stay, rares are generally unable to reach the prices they could before. More importantly, high prices are unstable, and unlikely to sustain themselves over time. In a world where most every 20 dollar chase card is now a mythic, why invest in rares? They’re far more opened than mythics, are more likely to crater, and have a lower price floor on average. Better just to buy AT&T stock.

If you had, like many of the readers on this site did, buy a pile of Angel of Serenitys at their opening prerelease price, you’d be Scrooge McDuck’ing your way through a pyramid of cash right now. If, on the other hand, you bought pretty much anything else, chances are you didn’t make that money back.

Lucky me, having seen what a total house Angel was at States, traded three Abrupt Decays for a foil angel, and still made money, without nearly as much risk as betting on the potential popularity of a piece of cardboard. While early speculation guesses what people will want, responsive speculation takes the trending desires into account and simply contents itself on existing ahead of the curve.

This is not, I should note, the way to make your fortune overnight. It is, however, an easy way to work the angles of Magic Finance without ever wondering whether your investment in deathrite shaman was worth the time, and if you'll ever see that cash again.

By the way, you can probably distill most of the last two paragraphs into my easy but firm investing rule: Don’t speculate on rares. It’s far too easy to be wrong, and the chance for reward is very limited by the speed at which you can turn cards around. From Olivia Voldaren and Falkenrath Aristocrat to Angel of Serenity, most of the high caliber low risk speculation targets have been mythics. I trust that trend, and so should you.

Back on Track Please, Mr. McGownd

Back to the topic at hand! While it’s apparent after seeing that particular dead horse beaten that I don’t like the preemptive speculation model which so many people ascribe to, why am I so preferential to responsive speculation? The answer is twofold.

Super Smash Bros. Melee is a very popular game, and while it’s not played competitively on the scale of some other E-sports, it’s not because it’s lacking in complexity or strategy. In SSBM, some characters are not made equal. In fact, if you were to look at the top tier players and their characters of choice, you’d find that the most important factors in determining how good a particular pick was depended on the maneuverability of the character and its ability to react to different styles and approaches effectively without ever being in a situation they couldn’t take advantage of.

By speculating via stock buyout of cardshark collections, you force yourself to react sluggishly to changing events. The best speculators might have copies bought up of a card a few hours after the buzz starts, and even if they get good prices it takes days for the cards to actually get there.

The first jump in Olivia Voldaren’s price, way back when, was followed over the next couple weeks of a corresponding plunge as people pulled her out of longboxes, collections, and binders to put up for sale. As demand rose, people found it more logical to work harder to generate supply, and the cost of the card dropped. Buying her for 5 meant that you might have had to settle with selling at 8.

This seems good, on the surface, especially compared to stock trading, but after fees… that’s a lot of risk for not a lot of reward. Even more importantly, you can’t effectively respond to the market. You’re dealing with a time lag that’s simply enormous compared to what most floor traders have to deal with.

I was one of the people who picked up a few Olivia Voldarens as soon as I heard the news, courtesy of the QS Insider notices. I didn’t buy out stocks of the card, but knowing that it was popular I traded for it ahead of the curve of people acknowledging its power and utility. I then traded away those same Olivias, sometimes to the same people, at newer, higher prices. I could react quickly and efficiently to changing sentiments without putting real money into the process.

Being able to see how much or how little a card is played gives you a lot of information as to how to prioritize it as a trade target, and whether or not to make a move. Because of this, I tend to not make a dedicated push until I see how the room reacts to the metagame. When I do make my move, I have a large quantity of people at my disposal to obtain product from, or to dump product on if my assumptions about card strength prove to be premature.

Questions, Comments and Snide Remarks Welcome!

Hopefully this helped, and whether you plan to take this path or not my line of logic concerning trading on site makes sense. If it does or doesn’t, if you think I’m right or wrong, I look forward to reading about it in the comments.

Gaming a Loosely Defined Metagame

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Where We Are, Where We Are Going

We’re only two weeks into a new Standard format and we’ve already seen a slew of promising archetypes. When the mana is this good, and the spells are this powerful, such diversity is bound to exist.

At this point, I’m not convinced that anybody has produced a list that is refined to the point of being officially tier one. Sure, Zombies is close, but this deck is going to place well due to the sheer volume of people playing it regardless of how far off lists may or may not be. More than anything Angel of Serenity is not nearly as popular as its power level warrants, but that’s not relevant to the topic I want to discuss today. Right now, what I believe is important to anybody trying to grind Standard is the ability to build a deck that can deal with the high level of diversity that exists in the here and now.

This is a gross oversimplification, but currently there are two major camps for Standard decks. There are the hyper-aggressive decks such as Zombies, Humans and GW Aggro and there are decks playing for longer games like UW Miracles and Jund Midrange.

The aggressive decks want to kill you on turn 4-5 with things like Sublime Archangel, Rancor and Geralf's Messenger. The slower decks want to kill you on turn “whenever they get to it”, with “whatever card that ends up doing the trick”. Not exactly similar schools of thought, are they?

So How Do We Proceed?

In formats like this, it is of the utmost importance to battle with cards that have power levels that scale upwards as the game progresses. That is, to play cards that are good against the aggressive decks that don’t fall flat on their face in the long game against controlling opponents. Pillar of Flame is a prime example of a card that does not scale well at all. It can be very good against a Gravecrawler or Diregraf Ghoul, but it is often close to a blank against controlling opponents. Two damage just isn't a lot to get out of a card when your opponent is tapping out for fives, sixes and sevens.

The most obvious examples of spells that scale well are X spells and removal spells. The power of a variable casting cost spell clearly becomes more powerful the larger the input is for the variable, and the efficiency of a Dreadbore destroying a Tamiyo, the Moon Sage is considerably higher than that of one destroying a Diregraf Ghoul.

Another great example of cards that tend to scale well are Planeswalkers. Jace, Architect of Thought’s +1 ability does a lot of work against aggressive decks in the early game, and his -2 is very strong in long games. Additionally, ‘Walkers scale well in the sense that the more times you activate them, the better use you have gotten out of the mana used to cast them. Of course, I don’t think that I need to sell anybody on Planeswalkers.

There are a slew of other spells that scale extremely well in the Standard card pool that I have on my radar for the various brews I’m working on. Here are a few cards that I believe are probably being under-played considering how well they scale:

Selesnya Charm

I’ve seen a few Bant lists that are opting to play 2-4 Azorious Charm while completely eschewing Selesnya Charm, and I’m really not sure why. In my testing Selesnya Charm has been fantastic. Against aggressive decks it trades with a great many creatures and against slower decks it is a fantastic answer to, well, any large creature. The added utility of occasionally being a Giant Growth is also worth something, if not very much.

Selesnya Charm is also nice to use on your own Angel of Serenity to permanently remove up to three problem creatures, and that’s nothing to scoff at. It’s also worth noting, even if the situation is rare, that you can use Selesnya Charm to pump an opposing creature to a 5+/X and then Snapcaster Mage your Charm to remove it from the game. Speaking of which…

Snapcaster Mage

I don’t know that Snapcaster is really being underutilized per se, but I haven’t seen him be exploited to the extent that he could be in this format. Much like Selesnya Charm, Tiago can be used for as little as trading with a bear and as much as flashing back a Sphinx's Revelation. Yet I’m not certain that there are (m)any decks that want four copies of this guy currently. While trading with early creatures is fine, it’s far from desirable. For that reason, I believe that the presence of the aggressive decks leaves me only wanting to play one or two.

Cyclonic Rift

Maybe I’m just looking in the wrong places, but I haven’t seen Cyclonic Rift very much at all. Bear in mind that this is coming from a man that was madly in love with Into the Roil, but Cyclonic Rift is one of my favorite cards printed in a long time. I discussed a potential card that was Unsummon with Overload during spoiler season and speculated that it would be too good to print, but in many ways Cyclonic Rift is just stronger than such a card.

The front half isn’t especially strong against aggressive decks, but it generates tempo, which is important. Many decks just want to live long enough to cast their Thragtusk and cards like this help them accomplish that goal. It can also be used to counter a Rancor, which is very solid. Again, it’s not a very exciting card when it’s not “kicked”, but the upside of kicking it is completely unreal. It resets aggro, it undoes Entreat the Angels, or any tokens for that matter, bounces every Planeswalker, etc... This is a very real card and I fully expect it to see a lot more play in the coming weeks.

Sphinx’s Revelation

I want four of this card in all of my decks. The life gain makes this card dramatically different from any previous draw X spell. If you’re able to make some early one-for-one trades and start casting this card against aggressive decks around turn five or six it comes close to fogging them every time you cast it and it helps you dig into more Thragtusks and Centaur Healers. Against slower decks the lifegain matters considerably less, but generating insane card advantage definitely counts for a lot.

Against aggressive decks you’ll often have to pull the trigger on this card the first turn you’re unable to make a different relevant play, which is a large part of the reason that UWx decks want four copies- when you start casting these you always want to have another one after you’ve cast all your other spells.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

I’ve already blanketed Planeswalkers as cards that scale well, but Sorin is one that has been largely underappreciated. He was definitely not good enough in a land of Titans and Mana Leaks, but the format is different enough now for cards like Sorin to shine. Lifelinking blockers are pretty real against aggressive decks and control decks absolutely need to kill Sorin before he kills them. It makes a lot of sense to see him in the winning decklist from this week, though I’d rather see him in a Sphinx's Revelation deck.

The Takeaway

For the most part I touched on cards that fit into a Bant shell, but this is largely because the Jund cards that scale well are for the most part being played in good capacity. Additionally, many of them are obvious. Dreadbore, Rakdos's Return and Thragtusk speak for themselves and I’ve already said my piece on Sever the Bloodline.

If I can get off work this Saturday I plan to battle in the TCG Player 5K this weekend in Minneapolis. I haven’t really worked out what exactly to battle with yet. Some revision of the Bant decks that have been making 9th every week on the SCG circuit or some manner of Esper Planeswalker deck is what I'm thinking right now. Four Sphinx's Revelation and two Cyclonic Rift will absolutely be in my deck- this much I know.

Until next time, good luck; high five!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Jason’s Archives: Let’s Touch Decks (Winning Article Title Contest Submission)

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Greetings, Speculators!

Don't worry, I have no intention of repeating last week's 3,000 word monstrosity. At the time I felt that I needed to make a compelling case for Seance before States so people could get in on the ground floor and snag some cheap copies before it went up. I am starting to wish I hadn't.

Always Look on the Upside of Life

Why do something when there is no upside for you? That's the question of the day, and when I think about my decision to champion Seance, I am not really sure why I bothered.

Let's review --- if the card tanks, I lose credibility in the financial community for getting people to buy a card that may not go anywhere. If the card makes a few top eights, I don't deserve any of the credit since I won't be piloting the deck, nor did I come up with the list, nor was I the one who's championed the card for six months. For me the best case scenario is that the card takes off and I make a bunch of profit on the copies I picked up.

But I could have kept my mouth shut about Seance and still done that, and I could have had the benefit of no one knowing I went deep on it if the card took off. Telling people was an experiment and unless I get some positive feedback to counteract the week of (at best) trolling and (at worst) smug, bald-faced vitriol I got as a result of my endorsement, it's one I won't be repeating.

Also, when Ryan Bushard got a Top 8 with 4x Seance main at Michigan State Champs, I went to buy out the rest of the copies on the net and a "popular website" was sold out at a dollar already. I guess someone is taking our advice. So much for being able to get them at a dime...

Wait, Back Up

Oh yeah, Ryan got Top 8 with his Seance list. At his first competitive REL event in 3 years.

One Data Point is Hardly---

Let me stop you there. Reports are coming in of Top 16 finishes in multiple states (via reddit) and we're waiting for TCGplayer to publish all of the States lists to confirm. Seance was played quite a bit this weekend.

Considering it's sold out at a dollar on "a popular website," I fully expect this to be a $2-$3 card soon because the internet is bad at buying cards. Even if every other site has 100 copies left at a dime, when they see "a popular website" is sold out at a buck they'll raise their prices. Seance should continue to do well as I feel it has more applications than just the Frites builds, including beating said Frites decks. Expect its price to increase along with its popularity.

In any case, I'm more than happy to share my private speculation targets on Twitter, but my days of public card endorsement are over.

Anything Worth Mentioning in San Jose?

Since it was Team Limited, I won't be covering the event much at the end of my article, but someone special made a few appearances at the event.

She showed up Friday...
and Saturday.

Magic Cosplay celebrity Christine Sprankle is responsible for both of these costume appearances at the GP. You can follow her on Twitter here. Redditor MKLaw is responsible for the [card Elspeth, Knight-Errant]Elspeth[/card] snap and Spicebread handled the [card Liliana of the Veil]Liliana[/card] pic.

The response to Spicebread's post was, shall we say, less than upstanding.

A lot of the comments have been deleted, but Spicebread's reddit post was full of sexist and derogatory comments. Normally I don't care if a bunch of neckbeards want to make themselves look even less dateable than usual, but the topic of sexism in the Magic community is a sensitive and important one. I won't rehash all the articles that have been written about this community's treatment of women, but I will urge some decorum.

Don't say anything about someone you wouldn't want said about your own mother. We don't want this community to appear any more unwelcoming than it already does, and not leering at a cosplayer or writing bad sexual puns about them on the internet is a good place to start.

Maybe I was particularly sensitive to how female cosplayers might feel in a room full of men because that same day I had just read this blog post linked on Twitter by Gathering Magic's Natasha Harrington. I suppose all I want to say is, like plastic shopping bags and corn engineered by Monsanto, the internet is forever. So don't say anything you won't be proud of in five years.

In the mean time, it looks like cosplay may be catching on. Here Christine poses with She-[card Sorin, Lord of Innistrad]Sorin[/card].

I was hoping for a Lady Karn, but I'll take it.

Divine Providence

Other than 2012 Champs, there was another event this weekend. I'm not going to spend too much time on Champs lists next week as Mike Flores does that already, only better. But if there is any relevant info I can glean from them I'll definitely share it with everyone.

SCG Providence totally happened, though, and that's worth having a look at.

Top 16 Standard Decks

The event was won by Junk Tokens, which may explain why all of my Sorin, Lord of Innistrad sold on eBay today. I would have to see the deck play out to understand how it managed to win, but congratulations to Marc Blesso are in order all the same. Intangible Virtue plus Lingering Souls is good enough to be banned in Block, so it's hard to ignore its relevance in a post-Vapor Snag, post-Mana Leak, post-Arc Trail world. Miser's Angel of Serenity got there for him as well. Great job!

A lot of reanimator strategies have been doing well, whether they run Seance or not. If you're going to run a ton of mana dorks, you might want to follow Dan Jordan's lead and jam Gavony Township. That card has been in every deck with mana dorks I've built since they printed it. It's satisfying to have three 1/1 elves when they pass the turn and swing for 9 on the untap. Sorry about your math, bro.

One card that Seance lists can't copy from Dan is Restoration Angel: a powerful flier in its own right and now an enabler in a world ruled by Thragtusk. Tusky himself hit $20 this weekend, and with M13 no longer being drafted, expect his price to stay there despite his slating for reprint in a second event deck. (Of course, some shops aren't getting more RtR for 5 weeks so we may be drafting M13 sooner than we think.) I would have favored Jordan's deck in the finals, but on any given Sunday...

U/W Humans is making some top eights. Elite Inquisitor is a card I (quietly) speculated on when [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card] was everywhere, but it didn't go anywhere. I was alerted by Team Dreamcrush members Joey D(bag) and Justin Burke to the increased play it's seeing, in a post-rotation world that would make George Romero proud. Inquisitor is here to stay, and his abilities and power/toughness-to-mana-cost ratio are solid even when your opponent has no zombies to embarrass. The full art promo foil is still hella cheap and that may be a better spec target than trying to get the regular card in bulk. It may be, but only in a world where people like to pimp out their Standard deck.

U/W Control is a solid archetype as well. I was wrong on Sphinx's Revelation because I failed to evaluate it in a vacuum. I compared it to Rakdos's Return, which I hate, and therefore under-evaluated Sphinx's Revelation. Fortunately, so do most people and I made up for my mistake by snagging cheap copies before everyone noticed them cropping up in decks. Standard is turning into a tapout format for control decks, and Revelation seems fine. However, Edgar Flores didn't even bother with it in his list, preferring more Azorius Keyrunes instead.

I think the UWR Miracles deck from last weekend was a flash in the pan, as a more concentrated U/W build is the better way to curve turn four [card Jace, Architect of Thought]Jace[/card] into turn five [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card]. Splashing red for Pillar of Flame will become worse and worse as people dial in the kind of removal they want. If you expect nothing but zombies it's a fine choice, but I might try a different build for a more varied meta. The new enemy is Thragtusk, not Lotleth Troll.

Two Jund Midrange decks round out the Top 8, one of them jamming an impressive three copies of Underworld Connections main. Wow. I heard card advantage wins games! [card Olivia Voldaren]Olivia[/card] is good in Jund as well as future Grixis builds, so expect her price to stay inflated at the very worst. Being able to steal their dudes in a long match gives this card a lot of reach. No Falkenrath Aristocrats in the Top 8 but six Olivias? Methinks this bears looking into.

B/G Zombies also made Top 8 to the surprise of no one but me. Lotleth Troll is a good card, I hear. Expect me to jam BUG at FNM just so I can try to make one arbitrarily but finitely large with a [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] emblem. And by "me" I mean "someone bad at Magic who still plays FNM."

Top 16 Legacy Decklists

Looking at this you would think 12 Post won, but it was actually boring old RUG Delver played by Elliot Wolchesky. Ugh. A Top 8 sporting Angel Stompy and 12 Post, which initially had me incredibly excited about the future of Magic. It's like I always say. If you come up with a good, original deck idea, tune it for weeks, jam a million games to learn how to sideboard and have a bit of luck on your side, you too can live the dream of losing in the Top 8 to a net deck. It's no wonder nobody bothers.

Clearly the most interesting deck in the Top 8 was Angel Stompy, piloted by John Miklenivich. This build was similar to something I toyed with, but I used 8 Moxen (4x [card Mox Diamond]Diamonds[/card] in my list) to enable turn 2 Illusory Angel; John used Cloud of Faeries and Chalice of the Void.

Cloud of Faeries seems like it would make Spellstutter Sprite maindeckable, but the only copies appeared in the board. The sideboard also contained Venser, Shaper Savant, which makes me think a Riptide Laboratory would go a long way. I hear Venser locks are no fun no matter which Venser you're talking about. All tempo all the time, this deck is lean and beats face with a ton of equipment. Good times.

Eight different decks in the Top 8 is what I like to see. Any deck has the potential to get there in Legacy, which is what makes it such a good format. Rounding out the Top 8 was Goblins, Reanimator, Stoneblade, BUG Tempo, BUG Control and 12 Post. Finally, Glacial Chasm gets some love.

That's All She I Wrote

And I won'ts writes no more. Have a good week and we'll see if we can't learn anything from 2012 Champs once those lists are in. Have a good 'un.

Insider: Chimes, Orders, and More On RTR Standard

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This week is all about tech; it's about the new developments in Standard and Eternal formats and how we can see some profit. We are gonna be all over.

Veilborn Ghoul Looks Kinda Like Squee

So Gerry Thompson has been all over Sphinx of the Chimes over at Starcity, and it's a card that originally just got ignored. Look, Sphinxes have not been batting very well as a tribe. Consecrated Sphinx is stellar, but her cousins Petra Sphinx and Sphinx of Lost Truths are languorous. How hard is it to get paid with Sphinx of the Chimes? Well normally, it would require running a lot of filtering and a lot of 4-ofs in your 60-card deck, and by the time you hit it, you might not need it.

Gerry circumvents all of this with Veilborn Ghoul. And if you look really hard, it does kind of look like Squee.

The idea is that you run four of the Ghouls and then you can pitch them over and over, provided that you have Swamps coming through. Gerry gets some profit in the short term with Faithless Looting, making early Ghouls live in hand. If he can drop another Swamp, he can get the Ghoul on both ends of Faithless Looting, which looks pretty incredible.

This all requires a lot of setup. The breakout card, in my opinion, is Jarad's Orders. You can get two Ghouls and get to drawing, or you can pair up the one Ghoul you've already seen with Sphinx of the Chimes and make it all play together. This seems really, really easy to set up - you spend the mana on the Orders, once, and you've got a crazy engine going (even if it only fuels Lootings). The fact that Orders and Veilborn Ghoul really punch up Lotleth Troll is just a glorious side benefit.

Sphinx of the Chimes is about 50 cents. The Orders are a bit more, at $1.25 or so. Both of these are worth getting a playset of, and if Gerry decides to actually pack Grixis at an event and does well, expect bigger returns on the Sphinx. The fact that Gerry continues to refine his Grixis list is promising.

Angels on the Rise

There are always going to be the U/W Control players, especially because WOTC singularly supports that color, year after year... Edgar Flores' U/W list has the usual Miraculous suspects. Sig wrote yesterday about how Terminus and Entreat The Angels are on the rise. Chas Andres over on SCG is also bullish on Entreat, boldly saying to buy them at $20. I don't share the same enthusiasm for the cards - I don't think Terminus is going to break much beyond $10, for example. Entreat is going to be one of those cards that you know should be worth more but doesn't get there. Consecrated Sphinx should have been worth much more, and remember that it was a lynchpin element of Caw Blade and high tech in the mirror. That cat-bird never saw much more than $12. However, Entreat the Angels is a good trade piece and it's highly liquid. That means that it's easy to move. If you can convert less easily moved cards into Entreats, that's a fine move.

Did you notice the lack of love for Supreme Verdict? Flores's list has three on the board and Jake Mondello ran a 1/1 split to 8th place in the same event, but it's not the superstar 4-of that people were expecting.

Geist is still around and will be for awhile.

Geist of Saint Traft collects rumors about his death like no other card. I'd imagine that those wishes are uttered by people like me who didn't buy it at $20 and have no interest in getting them now. Maybe the idea is "these are crap now (so sell yours to me!)." Geist of Saint Traft is still very powerful and he isn't going away any time soon. Geist also has a lot of long-term value because it's powerful in Modern. There are enough non-creature decks that an early Geist (off of Noble Hierarch?) must be handled. If we see more UW Control lists in Modern, expect Geist wars postboard. Remember that although there are a lot more creatures in Standard, Phantasmal Image and Phyrexian Metamorph have made their exits and those were two very reliable ways to kill the ghost.

I have to wonder whether UW Control will turn to both Sphinx's Revelation and Geists to beat the mirror, one going fast and the other going big.

Regarding Modern, Geist is a perfect card to hit $40 in two years, especially since it's got so much love. Remember that Dark Confidant was about $5 during parts of his printed run! Decks like UWR Delver are going to be around for a long time and Bant decks are also a big hit. Geist is an unlikely candidate for reprint, so if you want long, safe calls, this is a good one. When Geist rotates out of Standard is probably the best time to get them, but if you have them already, hold onto them.

States Results are Rolling In

The States tournaments were this last weekend, and the results are coming in at press time. Unfortunately, the results are incomplete and a lot of the states results are... well, they're from states that are not exactly known for huge turnouts and high competition. Have a look at this list for the first results. You'll notice over a dozen states, but the powerhouse states like California, New York, Ohio and more are absent at press time. Wisconsin is typically a pretty big turnout, and the presence of two midrange Jund decks there and at the SCG event last weekend is interesting. That deck uses Thragtusk and Huntmaster of the Fells to grind people out with Jund-style two for ones. It's going to be a consistent but boring part of the metagame. If it gets to be really established, then decks will have to have a way to fight off Thragtusk into Rakdos' Return, which is going to be a pretty serious endgame state.

The Deathrite Stuff

Opinions are split on whether Deathrite Shaman does enough to win games and justify its place in Standard. It pops up as a 1- or 2-of in many Standard lists, which is promising. We know that this needs a long time on the board before it makes a big impact. However, I've also heard early reports that it can be quite distorting to games. Many games in the current Standard are won with single-digit life totals, and the Shaman makes grinding that down a lot easier. The Jund deck is both a scary opposite to the Shaman (because it can gain so much life) and a good reason to play it - you need things that can carry you into the long game that will whittle down big life totals. I can't suggest a buy or sell on this guy yet, but thoughtful watching is in order. It's not a sexy card, but it's a great role-player.

Will Gerry draw dozens of cards with his Ghouls? Will we see crazy tech from States? If it happens, we'll talk about it here!

Until next week,

-Doug Linn

Insider: Week Two of Return to Ravnica

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Yesterday I was brainstorming some ideas for what to write about this week. A few readily popped into my mind and I began planning out the flow of the article.

Then I noticed something.

Terminus is sold out at Star City Games at the steep price of $9.99! You may be wondering why this would cause me to hesitate and reconsider my article for the week. Basically, much like last week, I’ve noticed some movement both on eBay and at retail that I feel is valuable to share with you.

Therefore I will postpone my creative and lasting article topics for the urgent and evanescent. In one to two week’s time, this article will only be useful for a pleasant lookback. But because of all the market momentum of the last week, I feel it is best if I summarize what’s been moving recently as this will be more valuable to the readers.

Besides, I’m selling many cards and I believe you will benefit to consider doing the same.

Major Card Shifts

Miracles (again)

Personally, I feel Terminus is the most notable mover recently. It seems like just a couple weeks ago these could be had for under $4. Now these are consistently selling at $8 each on eBay, and I just tested the waters by listing an auction for four copies last night with a buy it now price of $31.98. They sold in under 24 hours.

The card must have spiked drastically and quickly because the blacklotusproject.com chart hasn’t even caught up to this one’s movement.

This card is on fire and it sees play at both Standard and Legacy top tables. If you can acquire these at the old price I would trade for as many as you can get. While Avacyn Restored was opened significantly less than other sets, I still feel like board sweepers have a barrier. Not many, if any, can break through $10 while in Standard, and this non-mythic rare is no exception.

I’m moving my copies now and I’d suggest you consider the same. It would take a lot to move this card much higher (see: Snapcaster Mage, which warped Standard and Legacy).

There is another Miracle card that is sold out on Star City Games, powerful in both Standard and Legacy, and is on a rapid rise: Entreat the Angels. I mentioned this card last week in my article and this card has continued to go up. Auctions are ending near $20 each and Star City Games is sold out at $24.99. I expect another price bump on this Mythic.

Once again, blacklotusproject.com hasn’t caught up yet:

I was listening to the Star City Games commentators on Saturday and they kept referring to this card as “Encheat the Angels” because of how broken it is. If there’s a viable control strategy in Standard, this card will have a home. But I don’t see this one breaking $30 so I’m thinking of moving my copies very soon.

Not all Miracles are moving favorably. There is one in particular that seems to have been partially forgotten in the new Standard…(chart from blacklotusproject.com)

Talk about a card passing their peak. After retailing and selling out at $49.99, this card has done nothing but tumble down in price. Star City Games has ample copies in stock at… get this… $34.99!

I sold my last copy at this price a couple months ago and I hope you did as well. Some people ask me where this card will go from here. I feel the direction will continue to be down. There may come a time when this becomes a buy target again but we have a ways to go.

Creatures

I took a quick look at the rares and mythic rares that appeared in the SCG Providence Open Top 8. Here’s a quick summary:

  1. Thragtusk – 17 copies
  2. Huntmaster of the Fells – 8 copies
  3. Geist of Saint Traft – 8 copies
  4. Angel of Serenity – 7 copies
  5. Olivia Voldaren – 6 copies

Even being in an event deck, Thragtusk has still moved very high in price. It’s an M13 rare in an event deck and it is still sold out at Star City Games at $19.99. Who would have guessed that this splashable creature, which will likely see no play in Legacy (outside of fringe Nic Fit slots), can rival a card like Snapcaster Mage in price?

I will state the obvious: if you have extra copies, you probably want to sell them.

What baffles me is the price discrepancy between Huntmaster of the Fells and Geist of Saint Traft. The former is $17.99 at Star City Games with a few dozen in stock. The latter, on the other hand, is sold out at $29.99. Of course one tournament should not dictate a card’s price, but I do find it interesting that both cards have become ancillary components in Tier 1 Standard decks rather than the backbone.

Either way, I think Geist is a sell here while Huntmaster is a hold.

That brings us to the fourth card on the list, which happens to be my favorite for biased reasons: Angel of Serenity. This card has definitely shifted the metagame and is now retailing for $24.99. Many people have warmed up to this creature’s power, and after seeing it in action at another SCG Open it is hard to argue otherwise. Will this Angel reach the heights of Baneslayer Angel? No, not likely. Will this Angel see play in Standard moving forward, justifying its current price tag? I certainly believe so.

That being said, I do feel compelled to sell a couple of the copies I preordered for $6. If you can double or triple up on this pickup, holding for additional gains is a bit greedy. I’m going to take my profits and invest elsewhere, even if I feel SCG may eventually up the price to $29.99.

But there are some other creatures I’m more bearish on. Olivia Voldaren has proven her playability multiple times now. The last time she ran up this high, she could not sustain her price. (chart from blacklotusproject.com)

She won’t drop below $4 again, but I see her having a tough time breaking the $20 mark. If you’ve profited handily on these, I’d sell them.

I’d also sell some creatures who didn’t crack the Top 5. Falkenrath Aristocrat seems less exciting and her price $20 retail price seems overinflated. Also at $20, Armada Wurm may not hold this high without more of a presence in Standard. And Trostani, Selesnyas Voice, which once retailed for $20 and didn’t even show up in the Top 8, has now come back down to earth and is selling at Star City Games for $16.

Return to Ravnica Bubble

The release of Return to Ravnica and rotation of Standard has driven a great deal of price movement in the market. During this volatile time, I’m quick to buy but also quick to sell if profitable. Some speculations may have potential to increase in price even further, but one wrong gamble and you could be left selling at a loss.

This is especially true for Return to Ravnica cards. These are all very hyped right now due to their newness and also their short supply. Until enough product can be opened to stabilize prices, many Return to Ravnica cards will remain expensive. Some, like Angel of Serenity, may have justifiably high prices. Others like Trostani will likely come back to earth as more product is opened.

I just want to caution everyone of this point. There will be opportunities for more speculation in the future. Selling some cards now, especially if significant profit is made, will enable you to rinse and repeat for next time.

Sigbits

  • Jace, the Mind Sculptor has been on quite the run. Star City Games now sells NM copies for $80 and Channel Fireball buys them at $55. I’d wager you could post on MOTL that you’re buying Jace at $55 each and you’re likely to get responses. (Amusing aside: if you open a foil Jace, the Mind Sculptor, you could complete a “pack to power” immediately as the card retails for $300).
  • I lost an auction for a NM English Diaochan, Artful Beauty the other day. The eBay auction ended over $90! I’m beginning to wonder if other Portal 3 Kingdoms cards will follow suit. While you’re browsing sales lists and trade binders, keep this in mind.
  • Nice copies of Mountain retail for $30! Of course, I’m talking about Arabian Nights Mountain, but this figure is pretty impressive. It’s amazing how high desired basic lands can go in price. And with their everlasting utility, they seem like fool-proof investments. This hints at one of my future article topics…

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Drafting for Multiplayer: The Commander Cube

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My first encounter with cube drafting was many years ago. A longtime Magic player and friend asked me if I wanted to draft. "Of course!", I replied. I love drafting. He proceeded to pull out a long cardboard box full of unsleaved cards and began assembling them into piles, much to my confusion. After he gave a quick overview, I was instantly intrigued.

For those of you who (somehow) haven't heard of cube yet, let me sum it up for you. Instead of using sealed booster packs for a draft, you use a pre-made 'set' of cards that are randomly distributed into 'packs'. The allure of this format is that you can craft your cube any way you want. A pretty typical cube is just a collection of very powerful cards. On the other hand, I've seen other fun themes employed in a cube. Your imagination is the only limit!

Fast-forward a few years. At this point I've experienced many varieties of cubes, and almost everyone I know has one. I've always wanted to create one, but I could never come up with a good theme. There was no way I would stoop to making a 'good card' cube, because c'mon, everyone has one of those. I've toyed around with thematic cubes but could never settle on an idea.

Then one day it hit me. I love Commander, so why not make a Commander cube!?

Sadly, my brainchild has yet to come to fruition. I got tied up with a new job and haven't had as much time for Magic. But I've spent a good deal of time brainstorming what a Commander cube might look like. What cards would it have? How many cards? Better yet, how do I deal with the Commander aspect of the format?

I have a good sense of which cards would be fun and powerful in a Commander cube and also how to keep it balanced. I think the tough part would be the whole logistical aspect. There are a few questions that should be addressed.

How Does a Player Choose His/Her Commander?

My first idea was to incorporate plenty of legendary creatures in the cube pool and rely on each player choosing one during the course of the draft. The problem with this method is if a player doesn't draft a commander soon enough, it will be difficult for that player to build for synergy. This takes away from the spirit of the format.

This brought me to a second idea. There would be a smaller pool of legendary creatures players would draft prior to the regular draft. Each "legend pack" would consist of about five legendary creatures. You would make a first pick and pass to your left, just as in regular draft.

After the Commander packs were drafted, each player could use any or all of their picks in their deck (and one as a commander). I'm not sure if five is the right size for each pack, but tweaking this number should be easy after a few drafts.

The benefit of this method, tedious though it is, is that a player has several possible commander options to build around. This encourages fun, dynamic drafting strategies over simply picking the best card every pack. It also adheres to the flavor of Commander.

Here's a random sample pack (which would you choose?):

How Many Cards Does Each Player Draft?

In a typical draft format players draft roughly 45 cards and create a 40 card deck out of these (using about 23 of them plus basics). Would I just scale this linearly to the Commander format? The math says that decks are 2.5 times as big, so players should draft 2.5 times as many cards. This equates roughly to 113 cards per player.

That is quite a large pool of cards. But is it enough to provide a solid pool for a 100 card deck? Again, this question can be answered by simply drafting a few times. I think the card pools would scale just fine and perhaps could be trimmed down a bit.

How Many Cards per Pack?

The traditional number is fifteen. I have seen people on several occasions alter this number based on the number of drafters. If there are only four people drafting, five packs of nine are used (yielding the same size card pool). This allows for more 'first picks' and overall creates better decks.

Does this then scale to a Commander draft, with each player drafting 8 packs of 15? This equates to 120 cards for each person which is a good size pool. A typical Commander deck uses about 55 to 65 cards (about half the pool). This would let players spend picks on lands and mana fixing. This would allow for more dynamic decks because of more color options. Again, a few test runs would work out the kinks.

How Many Cards in the Cube?

If a good number for each person is roughly 120, how many people would the cube support? I think a good number of players for this format would be four. Four people at 120 cards per person is 480 cards! This doesn't even leave a cushion of extra cards, so I would probably bump it up to about 550. This is quite a bit more than a standard cube (roughly 300-400 cards). It will require a lot more balancing work, but like every other problem this can be remedied through many trials.

I think four people is ideal because Commander is a multiplayer format. After the draft, the participants would play in a four-player game (or several). Alternatively the cube could be bumped up to support six players (allowing two games of three people each), but this would require some 800 cards, which would make things more difficult, but doable.

A Daunting Task

A cube like this would require quite a bit more effort that a regular cube. First, the sheer number of cards required would easily double the cost to assemble it. Second, it would require a significantly large series of playtests to get the balance right. Finally, it would take extra organization to separate all the legends prior to each draft.

All in all I think this is a worthy task. It brings the idea of a cube draft to a whole new level. This is a project that I would like to complete someday, but currently I don't have the collection or the funds to accomplish. I've always pondered this and would be delighted to see it in action because of my love for both drafting and Commander.

For anyone looking to try this out, here's a summary of the basic steps:

  1. Players draft randomly created "legend packs," each consisting of five legendary creatures.
  2. Players do a second draft of eight 15-card packs (alternating left-right as per tradition)
  3. Each player designates a legend to be their Commander.
  4. Each player constructs a Commander deck (adhering to the standard Commander rules) using their pool of 125 cards (5 legends + 120 drafted cards).
  5. Finally, everyone plays Commander!

Overall I think it would be a sweet format, combining the exuberant multiplayer chaos of Commander with the strategic complexity of a draft. The format would be more open to themes than a standard cube. It would also be more interesting due to the nature of Commander. Since different cards are powerful it would create unexpected dynamics that you don't see in other cubes.

I wish I had gone through with this idea back when Commander was called EDH, and the cards were significantly cheaper. Hopefully I can slowly accumulate cards for a Commander cube so I can finally give it a try. I would be very interested to hear if anyone else has thought of this, or even tried it out. Please feel free to leave comments!

Thanks for reading.

Good Luck, High Five! Episode 6: Weirdo Hustle

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(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Insider: Recommended for Review

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Reviewing past analysis and recommendations can be important for understanding where one might have a blind spot or a weakness in speculative strategy.

In a previous column, I named Sorin, Lord of Innistrad on MTGO as a top pick from Innistrad block heading into Return to Ravnica spoiler season. Another, more recent pick I made was Bonfire of the Damned. Comparing these two picks yields valuable insight into the relation of risk to price, and how reducing risk can ensure a strong margin of safety when speculating.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

At the time of this recommendation, there was very little available information about Return to Ravnica. Although Sorin's colours are aligned with Orzhov, the fact that tokens as a strategy were nerfed in block suggested that WoTC was worried about tokens in their testing. Thundermaw Hellkite as a foil to tokens is another indicator of their perceived menace.

Early returns from Fall Standard tournaments indicate that tokens is currently a fringe strategy, and Sorin is not necessarily an integral part of a token build. It's still possible that tokens emerges within the new Standard metagame, but at this point the original hypothesis has proven to be incorrect. It's time to carefully reexamine this position.

On the positive side, the price floor of 14 tix has steadily held up. The popularity of this vampire planeswalker has supported the price and the Innistrad block structure has kept supply lower than it otherwise would have been. Buying at or near a price floor is a great way to reduce risk and if one had purchased Sorin on the recommendation, the total loss at this point can be attributed only to the buy/sell spread.

This illustrates an important way to reduce risk. Buy cards that are cheap! Making a call to buy a card should take into account the current price and the price history of a card. Combining these with analysis of how the Standard metagame might develop resulted in the call to buy Sorin. Now that the metagame analysis has proven to be incorrect, the margin of safety on this pick comes from buying at or near the price floor of 14 tix.

Continuing to hold means tying up capital in the near term which might be better deployed elsewhere. Down the road the Gatecrash spoiler season should perk up interest in this card from brewers and competitive players. Modern season also might deliver a bump in price as token strategies continue to make the odd appearance in the winner's bracket.

Moving Forward

The plan with this card is to hold onto the position unless the price floor of 14 is violated, i.e. if Cardbot begins to regularly price Sorin at 12-13 tix. If this happens, then it's time to sell the position and accept the loss of capital. Once a card begins a steady decline and breaks though a price floor, a new floor will typically have to be established. This means there will be a lower price at which to buy this card before Gatecrash spoiler season drums up interest and starts driving the price up again.

If a token deck featuring Sorin breaks out in Standard, then this will interrupt the price decline. As long as Sorin maintains the current price floor, holding for this possible shift in the metagame is a better option than selling and eating the buy/sell spread.

Bonfire of the Damned

This card was outlined as a risky strategy, but due to its price momentum, powerful in-game effect and scarcity as a 3rd set mythic, signs pointed to further increases. At the time of the recommendation, Bonfire was off its peak but still within the uptrend price channel.

The card lost price momentum, signaled when the uptrend price channel was violated. It drifted sideways for a while and then started a downwards trend. When the trend changed, indicating that the factors involved in propelling Bonfire's price upwards were on the wane, it was a warning sign to be cautious.

At this point, there is no clear sign of where or when Bonfire will stabilize, but 20 tix will be an important level. If it holds 20 tix and establishes a new price floor, then it will be time to apply new analysis to decide if Bonfire is a worthwhile purchase. If you are holding Bonfire of The Damned in order to speculate, the risk of further downward price movements are high and selling now would be recommended.

A Comparison in Risk

Bonfire has a shorter price history than Sorin and has also shown more volatility. Sorin might not be played very much in Standard, but the price has been steady. Buying Sorin at a price floor was much less risky than buying Bonfire in the late stages of it's uptrend.

By minimizing your risk and buying when cards are cheap, you will protect your capital until a good opportunity arises. Cards that are cheap carry a higher margin of safety. They can only go down in price a certain amount, while an expensive card has the potential to fall much further. Trying to catch the last wave of Bonfire's increase proved to be foolish. This mistake could have been avoided by paying more attention to the reduction of risk while taking speculative positions.

Top 10 Return to Ravnica Cards

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As I was preparing to write for this week, I realized I hadn't written my top ten article for Return to Ravnica yet. The top ten article is always an enjoyable one for me. Looking at a set from this perspective helps me understand its impact on Standard. I encourage everyone to do similar work breaking down sets for this purpose.

The other reason I enjoy the top ten article so much is because some of the choices I make are always controversial and I want to hear other players' opinions. I hope you guys enjoy the article as much as I do.

Exclusions from the Top Ten:

It's odd to start a top ten list with cards that were purposely excluded, but these two cards warrant explanation. I did not include either Supreme Verdict or Rakdos's Return despite other players' strong feelings about these two cards.

Supreme Verdict is certainly a step up in power level from what we have seen in the past, but today's resilient creatures laugh in the face of this mass removal spell. Uncounterability is nothing compared to stopping regeneration or exiling the creatures. Destroying all creatures most likely does not even rid you of all the creatures in play, making this new Azorius card undesirable. It does serve some function against white or green decks but it will not do everything like Wrath of God used to.

The second card I did not include is Rakdos's Return. This spell is way overcosted in my opinion. Blightning was broken in Standard and I hated playing against it but this x spell pales in comparison to the former Jund staple. It is not unplayable, but merely a strong sideboard card. Many writers are predicting the dominance of this sorcery, but I doubt it will play out that way.

Honorable Mention:

Though it did not crack the top ten, Mizzium Mortars is a great removal spell early and even better late. One thing holding it back is the fact that it's a sorcery. Making it an instant would dramatically increase the amount of play it would see.

The second factor hurting Mortars is the triple red in the overload cost. I have worked on a lot of decks that would definitely play this card but since they only splash red, they have no chance of getting to the Plague Wind effect. If a red-heavy deck like U/R Delver becomes popular, this card should see more play.

10. Rakdos Cackler/Dryad Militant/Call of the Conclave/Dreg Mangler

Number ten is a four way tie between the new hyper aggressive creatures. They are obviously powerful due to their high power-to-mana ratio and all are likely to impact Standard.

Rakdos Cackler might be the most important of the bunch because it fits right into an existing aggro deck. Dreg Mangler is similar but players do not agree on the correct way to build Zombies, so the amount of play he sees will depend on how the format shifts.

White Weenie and G/W Aggro are both starting to use Dryad Militant and I expect that trend to continue. I think Dryad Militant may even see play in older formats as well.

A deck with Call of the Conclave has not found success yet but I think it will in the future. Who knows, when Gatecrash comes along with both the Boros and Gruul guilds, we may even have a new zoo deck that wants Watchwolf 2.0.

9. Loxodon Smiter/Centaur Healer

For number nine we also have a tie but this time only two cards are fighting for the spot. The problem with these cards is that they are so similar. They both have the same mana cost, a good power-to-mana ratio and a relevant ability. Most decks that want one of these cards wants both of them. The problem is that one is good against aggro and one is good against control.

Without many counterspells in the format, I think Centaur Healer has the edge right now. If Standard shifts and discard becomes a large factor, Smiter's stock goes way up. Both cards are quite good for Constructed. Loxodon Smiter may even see play in older formats because his can't be countered ability is so much better in those formats.

8. Underworld Connections

Up next we have Underworld Connections. This enchantment is one of Standard's best draw engines. One life per card is a reasonable rate and one that is easily paid. This Phyrexian Arena variant is one reason that Jund Control is doing well in Standard. The card is sure to be a hit in Commander as well. Drawing an extra card per turn is such a powerful effect I even think that Zombies should be sideboarding Underworld Connections in against control decks.

7. Detention Sphere

The only reason my number seven pick, Detention Sphere, is not higher on this list is because Oblivion Ring is already legal in Standard. Detention Sphere is better than Oblivion Ring but not by much. They will often function exactly the same but one is harder to cast.

The first time you exile two of your opponent's permanents with one Detention Sphere though, you will believe in its power. It will be as obvious as dollar bin dual lands. Zombie players beware the sphere before playing two Gravecrawlers!

6. Armada Wurm

Number six is the card I've thought about the most since it was spoiled, Armada Wurm. Bad jokes about the art aside, I'm sure all of you know how much I love this card. The first time I saw the armada of ten evasive power for six mana, I knew it would be awesome. The prohibitive mana cost may hold it back a bit, but as the format progresses I expect it to pop up more and more. The Frites deck, for one, may want this card as an additional threat.

5. Dreadbore

Initially, Dreadbore was much lower on my list. With the recent success of planeswalkers in Standard, the Terminate variant's stock has gone way up. When I first considered this card for play in Standard, I thought the sorcery-speed drawback would hold it back. As it turns out, your opponent usually taps out for the planeswalker they're casting, leaving you free to use your sorcery to kill it. Oh, it also kills creatures, but that is less important.

4. Angel of Serenity

The number four card seems to be the prime finisher for ramp and reanimation decks in Standard. It's worth getting this seven-mana angel in play even if they kill it immediately. Hopefully you can target another copy in your graveyard in addition to two of your opponent's creatures in play. At the reasonable cost of seven, this finisher gets cast from your hand as well as cheated in from the graveyard. For now, she is the best option; we'll see if something from one of the Gatecrash guilds takes her place.

3. Abrupt Decay

The number three spot goes to the card that will affect the most formats, Abrupt Decay. The uncounterable ability is one of the most powerful effects in older formats where counterspells are so crucial. The shear fact that Abrupt Decay kills Counterbalance will ensure its place in Legacy. Also killing Tarmogoyf or Delver of Secrets in Modern and Legacy makes it an influential new card for those formats.

It's also amazing in draft and sealed, but people are obviously more concerned with its playability in Standard. We all know its good, but the question is how many do you want? Regardless of the number run in decks, two mana for this effect is pushing the power level for certain. I suspect this is one card likely to hold its price tag for quite some time.

2. Lotleth Troll

The man taking the number two spot is Lotleth Troll. Man? More like creepy, horrific, monster troll eating what looks to be a man's heart.

Disturbing art aside, I am constantly astounded by the power level of this creature. With so many abilities and a low mana cost, he is powerful enough to see play in multiple formats. This troll is quite a formidable foe and will impact Standard until he rotates out. Considering how he dominates games on his own, it should be no surprise to see him up here at number two.

1. Jace, Architect of Thought

Taking the number one spot, we have the newest edition in the line of Jace clones. While this version of Jace is not as broken as Jace, the Mind Sculptor, I rate him as one of the most powerful ever printed. I would not be surprised to see two different versions of Jace taking spots one and two in most players' minds for best planeswalkers of all time. Elspeth, Knight-Errant is powerful and won't give up her number two spot easily, but she may have no choice.

Jace, Architect of Thought is much better than the initial assessment most players gave him. This guy is no joke and I expect players to be gunning for him the whole time he is legal.

In my opinion, these top ten cards for Return to Ravnica were fairly obvious. If you do not agree, please post below your own top ten. I encourage your feedback on this topic. Let's hear what you have to say!

Until next time,

Unleash the Return to Ravnica Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
(I'm active on twitter again, so send me a message sometime.)
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

The Revenue Review – What We Learned in Cincinnati

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So there was a Star City Games Open last weekend you may have heard about. Or, more likely, there was an SCG Open last weekend AND YOU HAVEN’T HEARD ABOUT ANYTHING ELSE!

There’s a good reason for that. We finally saw the new format in all its Zombie-infested glory. And it was certainly a very telling event. We’ve had several articles already talking about some of the financial movers from the weekend, so I’m only go to touch on those briefly before moving on to the bigger question of why there were so many big movers.

Let’s start with the Top 16.

4 Zombie decks (and a bunch more in the top 32)

3 Bant decks

2 UWR Control (including the winner)

2 Reanimator (one made the finals)

2 Jund decks

1 GW deck

1 RB Aggro

1 UW Aggro

Of these, I think the ones we’ll see the most going forward are the UWR Miracles deck, as well as the Jund decks. The Reanimator decks looks solid, but cards like Rest in Peace are very difficult to beat, which will limit how much success they can have over the long-run.

And, though it may be blasphemous to say it, I don’t love Zombies going forward. There are many hate cards against the deck that as the format becomes more fleshed out there will be fewer and fewer Zombie pilots. Control decks will be able to tune against the Zombie decks more going forward, and a lot of what Zombies has going for it right now is that it’s the only “battle-tested” deck, having come from a successful shell last season and having easy cards to slot in. Now that other decks are being discovered and refined, Zombies is naturally going to fall off some, even if it remains very good.

This means stuff like Lotleth Troll, Falkenrath Aristocrats and the pair of Dark Ascension zombies don’t strike me as good holds right now. I think they’ll all continue to trade very well (same with the GB lands), and certainly aren’t going to drop overnight.

As we’ve seen already, there’s been a huge increase in the cards for the Miracle deck, and I’m inclined to believe the jump on Entreat the Angels is real, as well as the one on Tamiyo.

Jace at $50 is ridiculous. Remember Liliana at this time last year? She started pushing past $60 and toward $70 (something I called ridiculous then, too). Jace is very good, as I said in my set review. I still think he’s going to settle near $30 as I predicted in that review. There’s simply no way $50 holds for more than two months at the max. That doesn’t mean, of course, that there isn’t money to be made, but be aware.

Now let’s talk about a few cards that didn’t receive as much hype this weekend but still performed well. The first is Olivia Volderen. She saw a jump to $15 (glad I got that Insider blast out to you guys in time for that), and I think $10+ is going to hold. She’s very, very good. Remember what I said about Niv-Mizzet? That he’s a better Olivia? Well, the regular Olivia is still plenty good as well. And the Jund decks are very, very real. As I said on the podcast (BrainstormBrewery.com) I think Jund is going to become the best deck of the format, and I can see the prices on Olivia and Thragtusk coming along for the ride.

Why do I think this? To break it down, the Jund deck operates much like its namesake. Every card brings card advantage. There are very few 1-for-1s in the entire deck, and it has the tools to handle aggro while being resilient enough to stack up against Control. And it has Mizzium Mortars to answer the Entreat the Angels play that other decks can’t.

The next card I want to touch on is Angel of Serenity. I called it $10-15 medium-term in my set review, but I think I have to revise that upwards to $15-20. The card is nuts, and it’s definitely a 3-4-of in the decks that want it. On its face, you would think it’s way worse than Elesh Norn, and, while that’s true to an extent, it still does great work in the Unburial Rites decks. And it’s not unreasonable to hardcast it in these decks, either. Combined with the Angel casual appeal, I think $20 is going to be reasonable.

SCG Opens Driving the Market?

I remember it very clearly. I was watching a SCG Open, and there was only one deck anyone could talk about. The commentators went on and on about how the new set changed the format, and this deck was here to stay.

And Contested War Zone was the cog that made it all go.

I bought 20.

Needless to say, that one didn’t work out so well for me. Why, then, did last weekend’s SCG Open move the market so much? Generally only prolonged play of a card or a big weekend at the Pro Tour has this kind of effect. So what gives? Should we be watching Opens every weekend, ready to buy out TCGPlayer at the mention of a card in preparation for the next spike?

No.

I believe there are a few reasons why last weekend was an anomaly. Let’s break them down.

-       It’s the first weekend. This is the most obvious, but I don’t think it’s fair to stop there. SCG Opens really have become more of a driver in the last year or two, so it’s not unreasonable to see movement based on SCG results. We’ve obviously seen it with Legacy recently. While the “first weekend adjustment” tells some of the story, it’s not everything.

-       States. To me, this is the biggest one here. The drive last year solidified that people want their decks together for States, and for those who aren’t into brewing, copying whatever did well at the only large Standard tournament we have is their only option.

-       Increased viewership. Give SCG its due, viewership on Opens has been rising, and, while it’s not quite the same as a Pro Tour, I do think we’re going to see market moves from Opens, especially after formats are shook up.

-       Increased speculation in the market. This is also important. There are more people than ever trying to “break it” and going deep on their cards. Combined with the increased player base and the increase of financial knowledge in the game, this isn’t something going away. We can only try to be ahead of the curve, as we’ve done so far.

So moving forward, keep a close eye on the SCG Opens for potential tech, and don’t be scared to buy in, as we’ve seen this weekend as an example of it working, but don’t go hard on every piece of tech that shows up, either. It’s one thing to stay ahead of the market, it’s another to get too far ahead and lose everyone else while you’re doing it.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Post-Release Shifts Just Before States

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How does it feel to have all these Return to Ravnica cards in your hands? I’m really enjoying this new set, and preparing for the Team Sealed Grand Prix this coming weekend. I’ve also managed to make a decent chunk of cash just in these first couple weeks dumping my over-inflated rares. We've now got some input from the tournament scene as two 5k’s happened this weekend, and in all honesty, we didn't see too many surprises.

I’m still immediately selling any shocklands I happen across from drafts. Seeing the massive quantity of these that are being opened, it's only a matter of time before they start to dip down in price. My game plan for these is to attempt to acquire them just before the draft season changes to triple Gatecrash. We will have a full 3 months with no RTR drafts as Gatecrash will be drafted alone. During that time we’ll see an artificial spike in the RTR shocks until the third set in the block comes out, especially once Modern PTQ season starts in the Winter. I’d like to be buying shocks at about half of their current price, and I have no doubts that that will be a reality within just a couple months.

States is this weekend. Remember last year? Scars lands hit their peak, as Innistrad lands will. If you haven’t moved these out yet, I’d be doing so immediately. States is the last major event for Standard for quite some time, with the exception of the year-round nature of the StarCityGames and TCGplayer 5k events. That being said, once they come back down again stashing them for next year’s Standard PTQ season is a must.

Standard brought us some decks I was expecting. I’ve anticipated a control deck featuring 4 Jace, Architect of Thought and 2-3 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. Tamiyo has already started to bounce back up as a result, and this should stay above $20 for the remainder of the year. She can still be found at a few places under $20, and at that price I like her as a buy. As Bonfire of the Damned comes down in price, Tamiyo will come up and replace some of that value. Remember, Mythic Rares in the same set are linked in pricing with a negative correlation.

As I’ve discussed in this column before, the overall value of a set is mostly fixed, so as one Rare or Mythic drops another typically rises to average out to the same expected value per pack. The GerryT list that performed well at the StarCityGames open was only a few cards different from the version I had brewed, and mine featured the Chromatic Lantern. Perhaps that means it’s not good enough, or perhaps it means that others haven’t discovered how great it is. I’m still convinced, and still picking these up around $3 in trade whenever possible.

On the same note, and echoing Sigmund’s article from earlier this week, I like Terminus and Entreat the Angels as buys. Since Bonfire has so far to fall, some of that value will hit other cards from that set that are seeing standard play. Terminus is criminally underpriced, while Entreat might see a slight spike as people try out the new U/W/x control brews.

The G/W cards such as Armada Wurm and Trostani are seeing a lot of hype after this weekend although neither of them put up good finishes in the Standard events we’ve seen. I’ve also heard some reputable sources on Twitter talking about these cards in anticipation of a sweet deck appearing. I’m not yet sold on these, both are very weak against the sweepers in this format, and would have trouble dealing with a deck that features 4xTerminus plus some number of other sweepers too. If you picked up on these before the hype and are holding them, I’d personally sell out into the hype now.

On the Legacy side of things, we’re starting to see a shift. Some BUG Delver lists appeared featuring a small number of Abrupt Decay and Thoughtseize. While I don’t condone buying Abrupt Decay at it’s current price, Thoughtseize is a staple and is worth considering. The lists I saw only played two copies, and from the people I’ve talked to, upping that to four is likely correct. It’s already crept up a couple dollars in the last few days, but it probably has room to go higher.

About a month ago we looked at ways people will try to combat Show and Tell, and now Omniscience versions, and Thoughtseize, along with other black discard, was the answer. It’s happening, so time to make a move on these while you still can. This will shoot up above $30 in no time. Inquisition of Kozilek is another card to consider, as it often operates in tandem with Thoughtseize. While it’s not as good for answering Omniscience, it does hit Living Wish and Show and Tell, and is a good budget option. It’s already at $3, but as it’s essentially impossible to find, and Rise of the Eldrazi packs are insanely expensive, I could see this climbing to $5 pretty easily. Both of these cards are a strong buy for me right now.

What comes next? What are the next level answers to these new Standard brews, and can we get out in front of them with some speculation? I think Ash Zealot is a good option right now, as a RDW strategy could easily trump the Control decks I’ve seen. I’d envision it being similar to the B/R Zombies brews we’ve seen but less black, and more red. Stromkirk Noble combined with Ash Zealot is pretty insane, both of these are cards I'm picking up on the cheap. Rakdos Cackler would appear in this deck, and while it’s already a $1 uncommon, I expect it to stay at that price or higher for a while.

Are there other archetypes in Standard or Legacy you’ve tried and haven’t made the limelight in the tournament scene yet? Have faith in your testing and make some speculations on decks that will come back to fight the control decks.

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