| Quiet Speculation

Brewing With EMN- Golgari’mrakul

Posted on July 14, 2016July 14, 2016 by Ryan Overturf

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Listen. I just want to cast Emrakul, the Promised End. So mission accomplished there, WotC. I would have preferred to have some better enablers for delirium, though there are some serviceable tools. These seem to be the best new enablers with regard to churning your library into your graveyard at a high enough velocity to matter:

It's ironic that Liliana looks to be among the best ways to set up Emrakul, though her -2 is clearly a delirium enabler and her +1 helps to enable attacks with Grim Flayer. Given that the enablers are a little shy of ideal and that delirium forces us to play a mix of different card types, I can basically guarantee that we won't see the best delirium build week one, though I think there is something here.

Golgari Delirium

Creatures

4 Grim Flayer

4 Sylvan Advocate

4 Hangarback Walker

1 Emrakul, the Promised End

1 Ishkanah, Grafwidow

Spells

4 Liliana, the Last Hope

4 Oath of Nissa

2 Dead Weight

2 Ruinous Path

4 Grapple With the Past

4 Gather the Pack

2 Traverse the Ulvenwald

1 Murder

Lands

6 Forest

5 Swamp

4 Llanowar Wastes

4 Hissing Quagmire

4 Evolving Wilds

The game plan is simple. You get on the board turn two in somewhat aggressive fashion, and then start trying to set up delirium. Your two drops all scale well into the mid game, and then you build up to a game-breaking Emrakul. One issue with this build is that there is no way to discard Emrakul if you draw it, which makes playing a bunch of copies awkward. As such, I have included two copies of Traverse the Ulvenwald to make Emrakul more available, though only two copies as Traverse is pretty terrible without delirium and getting Traverse flooded could be just as bad as getting Emrakul flooded. One nice thing about the deck, is that if Emrakul ends up in the graveyard, both Liliana and Grapple with the Past can get her back.

I imagine that somebody smarter than me will put together something wild and less forced than this build, though this looks like a solid starting point for a week one deck. The deck both has the potential to play aggressively and to play longer games with subtle flexibility and scalability of the cards, which leaves a lot to like about this deck.

Insider: Eldritch Moon’s Standard Building Blocks

Posted on July 14, 2016January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Magic set design has progressed immensely in the past five years. Gone are the days when there were only a few impactful cards. Now we live in a world where, just like the Lego Movie told us, everything is awesome.

Each set brings a plentiful bounty of treasures ready to transform formats. Just as Oath of the Gatewatch and other recent sets have done, Eldritch Moon is continuing that trend.

In the past I've included the best aspects of each set within the Top 10 article in the Honorable Mention section. Today's article is an expansion of this concept. In my spoiler articles I've discussed some of the best cards in the set. Next week I will continue that idea in my regularly scheduled and much anticipated Top 10 article.

Today, let's delve into the building blocks we are about to be able to utilize from Eldritch Moon. We're going to break down some great cards today so let's dive right in!

Role Players

First up is the meat and potatoes of the set: the bland but impactful, the cards we need but which aren’t flashy. Cards like these mentioned below are the ones we all know looking back on a format that were auto-inclusions in a wide array of decks because they are efficient and effective at what they do.

In Standard right now these would be cards like Transgress the Mind, Negate or Duskwatch Recruiter. Often these cards tend to be overlooked on the initial pass of the set due to their seemingly innocent nature.

Murder

Murder is illegal but this card is a necessary evil. It may only be an unflashy reprint, but it should see play in a variety of archetypes due to its utility.

We do have Ruinous Path for the added modes of killing planeswalkers or kicking it as a win condition, but what we really need is the Hero's Downfall downgrade. The main reason it will see play is based on its instant-speed capabilities. The presence of this removal spell will also dictate the flow of the format.

Incendiary Flow

Now this is one we haven’t seen for a while now. Incendiary Flow may only be worse version of Incinerate, but an efficient burn spell is one of the things that’s been absent from the format for a while. There are some other options at the three mana spot in your curve, but recently we’ve had to jump through hoops to make our two-mana red removal playable. Now we don’t have to make that sacrifice any longer. We get the always-good three damage for two mana.

While Incendiary Flow does have the same weakness as Ruinous Path in that it’s only a sorcery, the efficiency of the card will certainly get many players on board. Additionally, we do have the minor upgrade of exiling a creature with it instead of preventing it from regenerating. This is one of the cards I believe will break out similar to how Duskwatch Recruiter did a couple months ago.

Whispers of Emrakul

Random discard like that from Whispers of Emrakul hasn’t been a part of Standard many times in Magic’s history. Originally we had Hymn to Tourach, Mind Twist, and Hypnotic Specter to tear opponents’ hands apart and potentially remove critical cards without regard to their type, like Duress or Ostracize would accomplish later.

Dissension started us off with Rise // Fall, Time Spiral gave us Stupor and M10 brought back a Mind Twist downgrade with Mind Shatter, but none of those were positioned correctly to make waves in Standard. I think this time, Whispers of Emrakul has the tools surrounding it to remind us why random discard has been so limited in our game’s history.

There seems to be a true Delirium deck brewing within the walls of Standard, and what better way to take advantage of this mechanic than with a Legacy staple like Hymn to Tourach? Even if the graveyard isn’t full of variety, we can still have the underappreciated Mind Knives to aid in our quest for tournament dominance.

Succumb to Temptation

Last up, we all need to just give in and Succumb to Temptation already. The only thing we will be giving into though is to play this unprecedented card. This gem has been hiding in the last spoiler update but it won’t stay hidden for long. Succumb to Temptation follows the tried and tested formula of black card drawing but this time we can cast it any time we want.

To gain this benefit we had to tack on an additional mana to its cost but that’s well worth the price. In this case, three mana is a small price to pay for instant-speed card draw.

We know this style card to be great from Abzan Charm last year. Abzan Midrange decks abused the card-drawing mode on that spell repeatedly. Rather than having the added utility of a modal card though, Tempt grants us the freedom to pair this draw spell with colors other than green and white. Even blue hasn’t been getting efficient card draw like this in recent years so don’t be fooled by this common. Let yourself be tempted into playing this instant and you won’t be sorry you did.

None of these cards are the ones you’ll make money on, but knowledge is power. Foils of these new spells could be a nice pick-up though, so keep your eyes out for those copies and hold them until they start seeing play in Standard.

Escalate

Just like in the previous section, most of these escalate cards might be initially overlooked, as each mode seems overcosted and not likely to majorly affect the outcome of games. But make no mistake, the mechanic's presence will be felt not just in Limited but in Standard as well. It’s a shame this slick new Mardu-only mechanic is prejudiced against blue and green, but hopefully we will have more in this line in future sets.

While they may seem innocent, the versatility these cards provide is the same as the charms that have been printed in the past. But these are unique in the way they scale up in the late-game, becoming more potent the longer the game progresses. There may only be eight cards of this design currently on the printing press but many of them will help shape the new format.

Blessed Alliance

Blessed Alliance is great because its main mode is as a decent removal spell in the vein of Celestial Flare or Immolating Glare. Cards like this see play intermittently but often end up as sideboard-only spells. With Blessed Alliance we can utilize this effect while also being able to cast it as a combat trick or to gain some life.

Collective Brutality

Rather than added mana cost for the kicker, Collective Brutality requires the caster to discard another card to add in another mode. This could be taken advantage of with some of the madness cards in Standard, but even if that doesn’t pan out I think this sorcery will be slotted into a lot of decklists.

The main problem with a card like Duress or Transgress the Mind has always been what to do with the card against a fast aggressive deck with few to no targets. Collective Brutality solves this problem with modes for multiple archetypes. Against aggro you can kill a small creature but against another midrange or control deck you can mess with their hand and hopefully their game plan.

Another aspect I like is that you can hold onto an extra land or a card you won’t be able to use in the matchup and discard it for a minor change in life totals.

Collective Defiance

Burn spells are back in season and Collective Defiance is primed and ready to assist Incendiary Flow in burning out the competition. This is yet another sorcery-speed removal spell, but Defiance also does everything you could want a red card to do. It can kill a creature, burn a player, or find you the other resources you are looking for.

Collective Defiance reminds me of Barbed Lightning from all the way back in Darksteel. That format was blisteringly fast and few archetypes were viable, vet this three-mana burn spell won Pro Tour Kobe in 2004 bases on its versatility.

It’s been over a decade since that spell saw sleeved-up competition, but we have that same card back in a new package once again. I already think it’s a crime that Exquisite Firecraft hasn’t seen more play, but Collective Defiance demands to be included in decks.

Collective Effort

Last up in this section is the white rare Collective Effort. While this card in the "collective" mini-cycle follows the same formula of utility as the other two, this one has to deal with the awkwardness of tapping your creatures to escalate the spell.

All three modes are great. You can take down a huge creature Reprisal-style, use the inefficient yet useful option of removing an enchantment, or counter up your guys like Ajani Goldmane used to do.

Because these three options are so great, that might make this spell worthy of inclusion, but I dislike the tapping requirement for multiple modes. It reminds me of Obelisk of Urd, which was often clunky. That card saw tons of play and allowed for quick kills, but this new sorcery doesn’t have the same enormous potential impact on the board.

As much as incomplete cycles like this bother me, especially the fact there is no black uncommon, you can see the options these cards provide are too good to pass up. So, just like Dromoka's Command, the escalate cards should help provide any Mardu-colored deck with the right tools for the right time.

All of these rares should be low cost but I doubt they will go much higher or fall much lower than their initial price points. That’s always a nice sweet spot to be in because you can buy in whenever and if you need to.

Emerge Cards

The emerge cycle is similarly small like that of the escalate spells, but these Eldrazi are ready to let you cheat them into play. Any time Wizards gives us ways to reduce mana costs of powerful spells, we need to pay special attention.

They even gave us a card specifically designed to enable this mechanic with Foul Emissary. Personally I like pairing these giant Eldrazi with Matter Reshaper or Eldrazi Skyspawner, but Foul Emissary gives us more options to get the job done.

My hesitation with these Eldrazi is that you won’t be able to consistently cheat them into play like a combo that requires too many things to make work. If that’s the case, these guys will just seem like pricey win conditions. If the Eldrazi are going to further infiltrate Magic though, I think pairing the seven-mana emerge-cost creatures with the three-mana guys mentioned above are going to be the best way to abuse this new mechanic.

To this end, Abundant Maw, Distended Mindbender, and Elder Deep-Fiend are the ones I’ve been eyeing up and trying to brew with. Abundant Maw will bring back nightmares of Siege Rhino, Distended Mindbender will help rip apart any hand in Standard, and Elder Deep-Fiend can Time Walk your opponent for a turn by tapping their lands. These are very potent effects that you can cheat into playing turn four and that’s a goal worth striving for.

Decimator of the Provinces could also be a great semi-Craterhoof Behemoth. I don’t like that its cast trigger prevents it from pumping itself, but additionally, sacrificing one of your creatures means that you have even less in play to benefit from Decimator's power boost.

Maybe this is the trump we’ve been looking for to end Collected Company mirrors quicker and for G/W Tokens to be able to close a game quickly. An emerge cost of nine makes it much harder to cheat into play as well. There are so many factors facing Decimator if he is going to make a breakthrough but the sacrifice is well worth the reward.

I think these emerge cards could be a great buy for anyone interested in speculating on this set. Elder Deep-Fiend in particular seems like an initially low card that could jump once a deck is formed with it. If you can get these cheaply, I’d recommend it.

Tribal Synergies

To finish up the article today, I want to discuss what our new tribal options are from this set. Myself and many others have worked on trying to make Vampires and Zombies playable in Standard. I’m not sure we have the tools yet but maybe what we got will prove good enough.

Vampires

Take Olivia's Dragoon for example. This might be the vampire we’ve been needing all along. It gives us a free discard outlet so we can abuse the madness from cards like Bloodhall Priest or Voldaren Pariah. I even think Dragoon is better than the rare version Stromkirk Condemned because you can discard an unlimited number of times.

Maybe the missing piece of the vampire puzzle was a madness outlet like Wild Mongrel to enable the cheaper costs and instant-speed casting of the other vampires. We may not have gotten a powerful tool like Captivating Vampire, but we may have gotten enough.

Zombies

What about Zombies though? I know a lot of us have been looking to abuse Diregraf Colossus and Prized Amalgam for a couple months now. We’ve all been waiting for the price trajectory of Relentless Dead and Risen Executioner to skyrocket but our new tools are less exciting than the possibilities we were dreaming of.

Liliana's Elite and Gisa and Geralf make a great team together and they could pair well with the zombies we already have. But what would this zombie deck start the game out doing? I think the critical piece we’re missing is either a late-game win condition or early-game pressure. As of right now, I don’t think these cards are going to be enough to make the tribe into a playable Standard deck.

I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts on these two tribes going forward. Is there a card you think will allow the archetype to succeed? These two tribes would be a gold mine for Magic finance if they ever take off. At this point I’m hesitant to endorse buying in on any of these cards though, unless they drop to bulk status.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Insider: A Strong Foundation – Price

Posted on July 13, 2016January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Welcome back, readers!

Today's article will continue my series on forming a strong foundation in investing principles. For those interested, the previous articles covered the subjects of Cost, Value and Risk.

Today's subject is tied together with value---it is the other side of the same coin.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

-Warren Buffet

While the term value is harder to define, price seems obvious. The amount of money I have to pay to purchase said item. Simple enough, right? Except how is that number determined?

In a market system, price is determined by sellers putting up the items they want to sell and buyers purchasing the items they want. The more of the same item that is available, the closer to the "real price" we get.

The real price of a good or service is the point of intersection between the sell price (set by the seller whose goal is to maximize their price) and the ideal purchase price by the buyer (whose goal is to buy the item at the cheapest price possible). This is most commonly referred to as supply and demand.

As you can see, there is an intersection point where the two curves meet, which corresponds to the ideal real market price. But how do we build this graph?

Plotting the Demand

It's not so hard to plot the demand side of it. If you have a lot of sales data you simply plot the number of cards sold at each price (it may not be exactly linear).

For a good example, let's review the sales data of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar from eBay. First I gathered 25 sales (all completed in the five days leading up to July 4th---since Standard metagames change rapidly I didn't want to include data much further back). Since these are actual sales, they best represent the demand side of things.

Qty	Price	Shipping	Total Price per Card
1	$16.00	$0.00	$16.00
1	$15.00	$2.45	$17.45
2	$35.00	$0.00	$17.50
4	$71.00	$0.00	$17.75
1	$15.50	$2.45	$17.95
1	$15.50	$2.45	$17.95
1	$17.99	$0.00	$17.99
1	$18.00	$0.00	$18.00
1	$18.00	$0.00	$18.00
4	$72.17	$0.00	$18.04
4	$73.05	$0.00	$18.26
1	$15.53	$2.75	$18.28
1	$15.95	$2.45	$18.40
1	$18.50	$0.00	$18.50
1	$18.75	$0.00	$18.75
1	$18.75	$0.00	$18.75
1	$19.00	$0.00	$19.00
1	$19.00	$0.00	$19.00
2	$36.00	$2.45	$19.23
4	$79.95	$0.00	$19.99
1	$19.99	$0.00	$19.99
1	$19.99	$0.00	$19.99
1	$20.00	$0.00	$20.00
1	$17.98	$2.65	$20.63
1	$19.95	$3.00	$22.95

I've got the sales listed in ascending order (not date of completion). For those who remember your childhood math classes, let's look at the mean, median, and mode here.

The mean is the average, which is $18.73.
The mode (number that occurs the most often) is $19.99.
The median (the number in the center of the sorted list) is $18.04.

Plotting the Supply

Now if we look at TCG Player we see the mid price (which is calculated as an average after eliminating some percent of outliers) is currently $22. Unsold product represents the supply side. These are all cards that are currently available for purchase, but which haven't found a buyer yet.

To plot the supply curve, we'll look at the individual TCG Player prices. We'll only look at NM/LP for the sake of this evaluation because we all know that condition has an effect on price (and usually a large one).

Qty	Price	Shipping	Total Price per Card
1	$17.68	$0.99	$18.67
1	$18.68	$0.00	$18.68
2	$18.75	$0.00	$18.75
1	$18.93	$1.00	$19.93
1	$17.44	$1.49	$18.93
2	$17.94	$0.99	$18.44
2	$18.00	$0.99	$18.50
1	$18.00	$1.00	$19.00
2	$19.49	$2.00	$20.49
1	$19.59	$0.00	$19.59
1	$17.00	$2.99	$19.99
2	$19.00	$0.99	$19.50
1	$20.00	$0.00	$20.00
1	$17.16	$2.99	$20.15
2	$19.84	$0.35	$20.02
1	$18.00	$2.29	$20.29
1	$19.39	$0.99	$20.38
1	$19.93	$0.50	$20.43
1	$20.46	$0.00	$20.46
1	$18.59	$1.99	$20.58
1	$19.61	$0.98	$20.59
2	$20.73	$0.00	$20.73
1	$20.73	$0.00	$20.73
1	$19.83	$0.99	$20.82

Here we have a mean of $19.82; mode of $20.73; and a median of $20.00.

Putting It Together

So when we compare the eBay sold prices with the current lowest TCG Player prices we get this graph:

This matches our supply and demand expectations. Though as you can clearly see it's not nearly as linear as the original graph. This non-linearity is likely far more realistic.

What is interesting here is that we do in fact have cards that were available (on the supply side) for cheaper than some paid (on the demand side). This is partially a function of the buyer's "need," which we haven't addressed directly in our analysis. For example, if a player is looking for cards for FNM tonight, they may be willing to pay more.

Information discrepancies and impulse decisions can also play a part. Perhaps some buyers jumped on eBay hoping to get a lower price and got caught up in the bidding war, or were unaware of TCG Player as an option.

However, as you would expect, the demand side is below the supply side price the vast majority of the time. This also makes logical sense as most people would rather get a bargain if they can. Note that the lowest point on the supply side is still higher than over half the demand side (so if you're looking for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, I would suggest trying your luck on eBay).

Non-Market Pricing

You may have noticed I prefaced all of this with the qualifier, "in a market system." So far humanity has yet to find a more optimal way to convert ownership of goods/services.

For those who lived under the old USSR, prices were dictated by a central authority. This authority was expected to determine what the price of a good should be by gathering data (such as cost of materials that go into making it, labor hours to make it, cost of machinery needed to make it, etc.).

The problem they faced was that prices for different goods are often linked together. For example, if it's your job to figure out the cost of shoes, you could gather all your data and decide that $20 a pair is a good price. Now, say I'm the guy who is supposed to determine the price of leather jackets. If the demand for shoes goes up because your price is too low, the demand for the material for leather jackets may go up as well. But if I assigned my price a week before yours, it may no longer be anywhere near the true price (because the cost of materials has just gone up).

I bring it up because with all the buyouts currently we have people who are similarly assigning a new price to cards they themselves bought out. This is a free society and they are welcome to do as they please (regardless of anyone's opinion on the matter). But they do so with no information regarding the market demand, which has likely dropped due to this artificial price spike.

They are in fact gambling on the thought that the market demand will remain close to the same that it was pre-spike (but it almost assuredly will not). So now they are stuck holding cards they have priced (artificially) and hoping demand catches up. For those interested, here is the price graph for Moat.

The buyout occurred on June 19th, 2016. Here are the current listings on TCG Player (supply side):

And here are the purchases on eBay since the spike (demand side):

We should ignore any of the graded copies, as the grading adds additional value and these prices likely haven't changed much anyway. What we see first and foremost is the highest eBay purchase prices were right after the spike. The further you get from June 19th, the lower the actual price goes.

In fact, the three most recent purchases (of which we know the specific price paid) isn't that far off what Moat was going for pre-spike. The implication is that the price is unlikely to stick, given that it's only taken about three weeks for the card to return to within 15% of the original pricing.

You can also check out the buylist spreads on these spikes and notice that they've gone up dramatically from before (compare the size of the gap between the orange and green lines in the graph below).

Hopefully this serves as fair warning to those trying to manipulate the market. While it may not be too difficult to buy up all the copies of certain cards (if you have a decent-sized bankroll), artificially inflating the price easily pulls you away from the actual market demand---and you don't make any profit until you actually sell the cards.

Top 5 Modern Playables: Eldritch Moon

Posted on July 13, 2016 by Sheridan Lardner

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

I'm always both sad and relieved when preview and spoiler season ends. Sad, because it's fun watching the trickle of cards throughout the day and getting the big story and set staple reveals. Relieved, because it's painful to watch people misappropriate the Bolt Test, evaluate cards without either testing or any metagame context, and make one more derogatory post about the storyline or its main characters. Take it from someone who voraciously read Magic classics such as The Thran and The Brothers' War as a child---Magic plots ain't ever been Shakespeare, and today's stories are just as canned, predictable, and delightfully entertaining as all their frontrunners. Aloof Sorin vs. spurned Nahir? The Jace and Lily soap opera? Lovecraft meets Magic?? Never stop writing, you crazy story team you.

Shifting to actual cards, I'm still reeling from Wizards' tragic exclusion of Innocent Blood from the best Innocent Blood-themed set in recent memory, although it was an excepted blow once I learned about the awful Oath of Liliana. Between the underpowered Oath and Standard's power-level demoting Accumulated Knowledge to unplayable sorcery speed, I wasn't exactly surprised to see Blood's exclusion when we got the final Moon roster last Friday. Thankfully for a Modern crowd spoiled by format-defining staples in the last few sets, Eldritch Moon did not fully disappoint---the set offers numerous playable cards for the format's many top-tier strategies. Today, I'll review my top five Modern playables from Eldritch Moon along with some honorable mentions that barely missed the final cut.

[wp_ad_camp_1]

Honorable Mentions

Not every card can make a top five list, and Eldritch Moon has more than a few contenders for those coveted slots. It's possible I might have swapped some of these onto the main list with a bit more testing, but given my current results and the overall conversations around these cards, I'm more comfortable with them on the bench than the main stage.

Elder Deep-Fiend
This uncounterable Mistbind Clique effect is absolutely unfair in the Bant Eldrazi vs. Jeskai, Scapeshift, or other blue-based control matchup. Playing this on turn three off turn two Eldrazi Temple and Matter Reshaper, plus that silly on-cast tapdown, feels like cheating. Opponent counters the Fiend? Good luck handling the subsequent Thought-Knot Seer or Reality Smasher on turn four. Opponent doesn't counter the Fiend? Between Fiend and the creature you play next turn, you probably have a 1-2 turn clock. If you love emerge but don't love the Deep-Fiend, also check out the Eldrazified Siege Rhino in Abundant Maw.

Spell Queller
This could easily become a tempo all-star, particularly in tandem with the undervalued Disrupting Shoal to occupy the tricky three-slot. Delver of Secrets loves flipping on turn two with Remand backup and then Queller following on turn three; it even saves you from the Abrupt Decay! In my limited testing, you felt invincible untapping on turn three with a clock in play and a Queller in hand, and this might have been rated higher if I had more reps on the different Queller decks being thrown around online (Delver variants, Spirits variants, Bant variants, etc.).

Noose Constrictor
At least we got one noteworthy Odyssey block reprint! I was a longtime Wild Mongrel fan, which makes Constrictor my hands-down favorite card of the set. I see the Snake enabling some combination of madness and delirium decks, although it's unclear how those strategies will perform in our powerful format. This uncertainty makes it hard to test optimal Constrictor builds, and keeps Mongrel 2.0 off the main list.

Selfless Spirit
Dauntless Escort's spiritual successor is a solid, albeit boring, addition to Kiki Chord and Abzan Company. Flying is relevant both defensively against decks like Affinity and Infect, but also offensively when decks like Abzan Company switch gears to the Gavony Township plan. Burrenton Forge-Tender will likely still get the nod in certain metagames, but Spirit takes an edge in beating hard Wrath sweepers, shielding against Pulse/Decay/Terminate removal, and winning messy combat phases.

Splendid Reclamation
I struggled between placing this on the formal top five or shifting it to the runner-ups. I'm settling with "honorable mention" because I couldn't figure out the Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle shell to get this working, even if that doesn't mean it's not out there for someone else to find. Like Scapeshift, Reclamation is a four-mana sorcery which can serve as a functional one-card combo with the requisite setup. Reclamation diverges from Scapeshift in requiring a graveyard setup, and that's where the brewers need to get working. Does this pair with Golgari Grave-Troll and other dredgers? Assault Loam standby Seismic Assault? A backup, or even Plan A, for traditional or Prismatic Omen Scapeshift? I'm not certain where this ends up, but I'd be shocked if someone didn't get it working by the end of 2016.

Want to prove me wrong and vindicate your pet Moon favorites? Head down to the comments with some arguments and/or test results; I'd love to see some alternate takes on these potential diamonds in the rough. I'd also love to hear more about cards I didn't test as intensively, such as Nephalia Academy (I'm worried about anti-discard mechanics that need to be played early and can't produce colored mana), Grim Flayer (can we get actually delirium to work?), and others.

With all our participation medals handed out, let's now turn to the winner's pedestal and see who made the top five cut.

5. Emrakul, the Promised End

M'Emrakul! We meet again! The last time we checked in on Innistrad's cosmic terror, I'd conducted a series of RG Tron tests swapping out Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger for Emrakul, the Promised End. Early results were promising, although not conclusive, and I immediately liked Emrakul as a metagame call in RG Tron lists. You can reliably cast the Eldrazi titan for 11 mana, which typically drops to 10 with help from Lightning Bolt, dead planeswalkers, and Ghost Quartered lands. Or your own Ghost Quarter/Sanctum of Ugin (Sanctum in particular is excellent here)! In that 10-11 mana range, Emrakul compares favorably to Ulamog, making her a viable replacement in metagames where the Mindslaver effect is decisive.

Since those initial evaluations, I've jammed far too many MTGO leagues with my RG Tron list. In between losing to Infect, Bogles, Ad Nauseam, Mill, Dredge, and other representatives of the online linear plague, I've been keeping close track of where Emrakul would have saved me when Ulamog was insufficient. I've also conducted some direct Emrakul tests in between tilted league finishes. Overall, the findings only reinforced my early assessment.

Emrakul was particularly game-breaking against Infect, where Ulamog on Blighted Agent/Inkmoth Nexus would frequently meet a Vines of Vastwood. Emrakul dispatches both with tentacled aplomb, forcing the Inkmoth to swing right into her eldritch maw and expending all Infect's pump resources on the Agent. This typically lines up Infect for a guaranteed loss in the next turn or two. Burn, Affinity, Suicide Zoo, and other similar decks often meet similar ends to the Mindslaver effect, further differentiating Emrakul's strengths from Ulamog's. All this points to Emrakul occupying RG Tron slots in the future, and I'm excited to try out two copies on MTGO when Moon hits online vendors soon.

4. Eternal Scourge

I've heard players assess Eternal Scourge as Modern's Nether Spirit and just another Misthollow Griffin. And you can't even pitch the Scourge to Force of Will in Legacy Food Chain combo! I'm not certain about where exactly Scourge is going to find a home, but I've identified enough Scourge synergies in testing that I'm calling this creepy little weirdo a winner.

Gray Ogres aren't exactly what you want to be doing in Modern, but Watchwolf is quite a bit better, and that's exactly where Scourge ends up in tandem with Eldrazi Temple. Semi-hexproof Watchwolf is even better, with Scourge coming back for more every turn. Admittedly, Scourge's self-exiling clause can be a liability against some forms of removal that wouldn't otherwise kill the Eldrazi for good: watching Scourge die to Gruul/Suicide Zoo's Mutagenic Growth is uniquely aggravating. Corner-cases aside, however, most removal that kills Scourge is going to kill any "two-mana" 3/3. This notably includes two of Jeskai Control's best removal options, Path to Exile and Nahiri, the Harbinger, which are both laughable against the unkillable Horror.

Looking beyond its base stats, Eternal Scourge also lends itself to various teched-out lines of play. You know what sounds unfair? Turn zero Gemstone Caverns pitching the Scourge into turn one Eldrazi Temple, playing the Scourge. Follow that up with a turn two Thought-Knot Seer and your opponent is going to feel like Eye of Ugin is legal again. Scourge also plays well alongside Relic of Progenitus (remember that Scourges dying in combat don't naturally exile), Rest In Peace, and even Scavenging Ooze. I'm also sure there's something stupid here involving Heartless Summoning.

Overall, Eternal Scourge has the markings of a powerful card. Its ability to fill aggressive, midrange, and even more combo-oriented roles suggests significant Modern potential. I'm excited to see what the Eldrazi brewers do with this one.

3. Eldritch Evolution

I'm still thoroughly unconvinced that Allosarus Evolution is where you want to go with this card, but Eldritch Evolution itself still passes Modern muster. As I wrote about in my Evolution article last week, many deckbuilders have been too distracted by the Allosaurus Rider buyout and synergy to think of Modern's Natural Order as anything other than a combo piece. Stop thinking dinosaurs and start thinking value. Eldritch Evolution is the only creature toolbox bullet that can fetch a two- or three-drop bullet of choice as early as turn two. Chord of Calling doesn't crumble to Remand, but it also can't tutor your devastating creature until turn three at earliest. In Modern, that's a lifetime. Or, as is often the case, a game loss.

All of the toolbox green decks have bad matchups where spiteful creatures are the difference between a win and a loss. See Abzan Company vs. RG Tron. See Elves vs. Affinity or Infect. In these kinds of matchups, your chances of winning increase dramatically if you can get the hatebear (or hate Ogre) out as early as possible. Evolution lets you do just that by turn two; Aven Mindcensor against Tron; Spellskite against Infect; Kataki, War's Wage against Affinity. The card disadvantage potential is more than outweighed by the haymaker you deploy. Higher on the curve, you can also use Evolution for serious value by converting those Kitchen Finks and Voice of Resurgences into Sigarda, Host of Herons and Siege Rhino. Or, if you still want to try the Allosaurus combo, straight up to Griselbrand and the other bigshots.

I expect we see any number of these toolbox decks trying out Eldritch Evolution in Company, Chord, or other slots to shore up bad matchups. I also expect we see a more dedicated Chord and Evolution deck emerge after Eldritch Moon, potentially in Abzan colors and focused around decisive, toolbox creatures and high-value midrange sequences reminiscent of 2014's Rhino Birthing Pod strategies.

2. Collective Brutality

After a rough few weeks of RG Tron meets Infect on MTGO, I was already considering shifting over to a more interactive deck, and Grixis Delver was at the top of my list. Collective Brutality all but solidifies this investment decision, although the escalate sorcery is by no means a Grixis Delver exclusive. This deceptively powerful spell wins my nomination for biggest sleeper of the set, a sorcery-speed Disfigure and bad Duress that many are understandably dismissing. Although I don't see Brutality quite living up to the Kolaghan's Command standard, this two-mana catchall meets all the benchmarks of a powerful Modern roleplayer.

In evaluating a care like Brutality, you're really evaluating seven different cards in one. There's the three single modes, three double-escalated modes (discard/Disfigure, Disfigure/Syphon Life, and discard/Syphon Life), and the single triple-escalated nuke. Thinking through all seven of those possibilities in a Grixis shell, or in an Abzan one alongside Lingering Souls, Brutality is more than capable of carving out decisive advantages throughout the early- and mid-game.

Any combination of discard and Disfigure, even at sorcery speed, is going to make major gains against most of Modern's premier aggressive decks. This includes Burn's Goblin Guides and Eidolon of the Great Revels, along with all its burn spells. It hits Infect's Glistener Elfs and Blighted Agents in one strike and the frightening Become Immense or Vines of Vastwood in the other. Brutality's versatility extends to all the Birds of Paradise decks, where it swats the Birds while simultaneously sniping the Chord or Company. Syphon Life is also relevant, empowering Grixis decks with the lifegain they have historically lacked and echoing Kolaghan's Command's two-point reach.

Of course, Brutality offers more than just spell effects. Its discard cost can be just as powerful in the right deck. Abzan strategies can pair it with Lingering Souls for a huge turns 2-3 punch. Snapcaster decks can recover the discarded spells later, use them to fuel an early Tasigur, the Golden Fang or Gurmag Angler (the latter can be hard to turn on by turn three otherwise), or put cards in the bin for later Kolaghan's Command recursion. This also doesn't touch on Brutality's application in graveyard-based combo decks, where the triple effect of early removal, counter-disruption, and discard can be lethal. I'm not looking forward to facing Griselbrand decks that Brutality on turn two before the big turn three Goryo's Vengeance turn.

Collective Brutality is sure to see both maindeck and sideboard play in Modern's future. My money is currently on Grixis strategies, where the sorcery shores up a rough Burn matchup while also maintaining relevance across the format, but I'm excited to see who else leverages black's newest multitool.

1. Bedlam Reveler

Jordan's not the only one excited about Bedlam Reveler in Modern. I've been testing the Devil in various Delver, Temur, Burn, and similar spell-packed lists, and it's been a major performer so far. Although I don't think Reveler is quite Treasure Cruise with legs, and it's far from the creature to break Burn by the end of the summer, I do see the card making a big Modern impact as a curvetopper across the archetype spectrum. Nowhere should this be more true than in different Delver of Secrets builds.

We've been seeing Delver strategies slowly creeping out of their Tier 3 morass into more respectable metagame ground, notably with Ryan Overturf's 5th place performance at May's SCG Indianapolis Open, and Kevin Jones' victory at June's SCG Dallas Open. This suggests the strategy has more legs (and wings?) than many gave it credit, and Bedlam Reveler is a tantalizing addition to maintain Delver's metagame momentum. Harkening back to Delver's old Treasure Cruise days, the Devil gives mid- and late-game Delver players a way to refuel and reload after running out of steam. Unlike Cruise, Reveler isn't quite as unconditionally busted, forcing you to pitch your hand and not treating Thought Scours as Dark Rituals. Snapcaster Mage also doesn't break the card in half. Like Cruise, however, Reveler gives you an Inquisition of Kozilek-proof recovery against attrition decks, and one that synergizes with the deck's 27+ instants and sorceries.

Reveler contributes a number of other strengths to the Delver package, or to any other strategy which can accommodate its casting requirements. For one, its cost-reduction doesn't compete with subsequent Revelers and doesn't get blown out by Remand. It also is much milder anti-synergy with Tasigur, whose delving can take away fetchlands and creatures before plucking away a few of Reveler's beloved spells. You can't Snapcaster a Reveler, but you can Kolaghan's Command one (or Snapcaster a Kolaghan's!), which further tips the grindy attrition contests to the Delver player. Of course, Bedlam Reveler is also a hardy threat which can easily overpower Tarmogoyfs and put the opponent on a rapid clock.

Despite an uptick in linear strategies, particularly in the MTGO metagame, plodding Jeskai and hateful Jund are still some of Modern's most-played decks. This creates an opportunity for numerous red, spell-based builds to start incorporating Bedlam Reveler as a countermeasure. I'm confident we'll see Moderners from Mardu to Jeskai Midrange working overtime to test out Reveler, and given its base stats and powerful "draw three cards" line of text, this all but ensures the Horror will find its home in our format.

Eldritch Moon Wrap-Up

I'll be on vacation for the next few weeks, so much of the post-Eldritch Moon testing will need to happen without me. There's also a banlist announcement arriving next Monday, July 18: my relative silence on this update should indicate exactly what I predict it to announce (a resounding "no changes" in an extremely healthy format). I should be back during the week of August 1, hopefully with no more panic-inducing news about buyouts, major format changes, or some new Eldrazi-involved nonsense.

You'll be in good hands with Jason and company until then, and I hear our Editor in Chief has a metagame update planned for the coming week: some internal transitions have delayed this for July. Until then, head down to the comment section with your own Eldritch Moon reviews, test results, and overall thoughts. Did I miss any big cards? Any Moon brews or lists just waiting for their big Modern debut? Let me know and we'll talk soon.

Insider: Infographic – Expected Value of an EMN Box

Posted on July 13, 2016January 17, 2022 by Diego Fumagalli

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

On our weekly infographic we decided to offer our QS readers a new tool to help them better evaluate their financial choices.

Every time a new set is released most of us ask ourselves whether buying one (or more) boxes is worth the price. Aside from the pleasure of the smell of new packs or the entertainment granted by a draft with friends, today we try to analyze the expected value in a box of Eldritch Moon opened on release weekend.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for July 13th, 2016

Posted on July 13, 2016January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of July 11^th, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that sets of Theros (THS) are out of stock in the store, so this set is no longer redeemable.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Flashback Draft of the Week

Shards of Alara (ALA) block draft continues with the addition of the final set, the first all-gold-bordered set, Alara Reborn (ARB). Unfortunately ARB doesn't add much value, with the top card being the rare Maelstrom Pulse at 5 tix.

If your Modern collection is missing Terminate though, it's a good time to look for that card. And don't forget to continue watching out for Modern staple Path to Exile from Conflux. Staple uncommons see consistent price fluctuations. This card is rarely below 2 tix and often has been close to 4 tix in the last ten months.

Modern

The Legacy Festival is ongoing and will culminate in the Festival Championship on July 24^th. The price of cards that see play in both Modern and Legacy have benefited as a result. Cavern of Souls is back above 40 tix and Liliana of the Veil is another staple from Innistrad block that has crested the splashy 100 tix level.

With the paper prerelease events for Eldritch Moon (EMN) coming up this weekend, players' attention and wallets will be turning to Standard and the new cards, respectively. It's definitely time to be lightening up your Modern positions and trying to get liquid in advance of the release of the new set on MTGO.

Although Modern and Legacy prices typically get a bounce in September, the release of the large Fall set triggers a lot of price declines. It's not too early to be thinking about building liquidity to take advantage of the sale prices. There might not be many great deals to pick up during the EMN release period, but there will definitely be opportunities for deploying tix into Modern positions in October.

Standard

Taking a look at the most recent results, the field is currently dominated by the colour white, with archetypes including G/W Tokens, Bant Company, and aggressive white-based strategies.

The foundation of this dominance shows up in having some of the most powerful cards from the Standard sets, such as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar from Battle for Zendikar (BFZ), Dromoka's Command from Dragons of Tarkir (DTK), Eldrazi Displacer and Reflector Mage from Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) and Archangel Avacyn from Shadows over Innistrad (SOI), not to mention the subtly good Thraben Inspector and the excellent Declaration in Stone. Add it all up, and the foundation for a number of powerful decks is in place for white.

With Eldritch Moon (EMN) fully spoiled, there's no sign that white is ready to fade back to the pack. Gisela, the Broken Blade might live up to her name in Standard and is certainly going to be a pricey mythic rare out of the gate, and Thalia's Lancers does a very suitable Goblin Dark-Dwellers impersonation. Chiefly though, the lack of a set rotation means that a wholesale change in the Standard format is an unlikely possibility.

However, DTK and Magic Origins (ORI) only have a couple of months left in Standard, which means its not too early to start planning for that change. Black in particular strikes me as having gotten a boost in EMN. Exhibit A is Liliana, the Last Hope. Three-casting-cost planeswalkers have a historic pedigree and I anticipate that this card will see play in Standard at some point. Another card featuring Liliana is Oath of Liliana, which might turn out to be the right up there with Oath of Nissa in terms of the amount of play it sees.

Lastly, Collective Brutality looks like a premium madness enabler and is a classic black card in that you get to trade non-mana resources for one or more effects. The card is a bit of a tool box where each of the effects is not worth spending two mana on individually, but having the flexibility of all of them as options makes it playable on its own.

Combining to give up to two madness outlets for zero mana beyond the original 1B pushes this card into a very interesting space. A dedicated madness strategy might not materialize in Standard, but this card doesn't necessarily need that to happen for it to see play.

With these three cards all looking to have applications in Standard, combined with a few nods to the zombie tribe, it would be prudent to look to objectively powerful black cards as speculative targets. In this week's Trade of the Week, I target a possibility from OGW.

Standard Boosters

Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) boosters have held around their prices of 2 tix and 3.5 tix respectively. There continues to be a small cadre of drafters entering these queues, but with EMN's pending release, I anticipate a period of price weakness on these boosters. BFZ might head to a new low of around 1.8 tix and OGW is likely to hit 3.3 tix again.

Once August rolls around, prices will stabilize and inch higher, especially after drafters get their fill of EMN-SOI draft.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. This week I was considering how EMN would impact Standard, and my conclusion was that black was going to get a boost. With applications in Modern and a recent price ceiling close to 40 tix, I felt that Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet from OGW had some short-term potential in Standard and was definitely a card I want to be holding heading into the winter.

There's a good possibility this card will dip further as EMN prerelease events get started on MTGO. A dip into the 15 to 20 tix range would prompt me to go deeper and put another playset or two into the Market Report portfolio.

On the Reserved List Buyouts

Posted on July 12, 2016July 12, 2016 by Chad O'Brien

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

To quote the essence of Stephen King’s epic take of The Gunslinger, it is safe to say that, with regards to Magic, the world has moved on.

I began playing Magic in 1994; even back then it was clear that Magic cards had a future---and with that came exciting financial possibilities for collectors. That was, of course, until the dreaded Chronicles set came out and threatened to destroy the game and those possibilities outright.

When Chronicles hit, many people were terribly unhappy at having learned the gems of their collection could---at any time---be reprinted, lose their rarity and notoriety, and in turn negatively affect the owner’s bragging rights and investment. As an eventual response to this, the Reserved List was created and a promise to all players on behalf of Wizards of the Coast was made---the gems of your collection will never again be reprinted.

I have spoken to some who said that Wizards should have known better than to make such a promise (given the current financial status of many iconic cards) but I personally believe that back then, there was no way the company could have predicted what the game would eventually turn into.

But alas, the world has moved on.

Magic: The Gathering has become a multi-million dollar business, and not just for Hasbro/Wizards of the Coast; there are millions of dollars that change hands monthly in the secondary market at Grand Prix alone, not to mention third-party sellers like eBay, TCG Player and so on. And like it or not, Magic is an unregulated free market that literally anyone can make money with.

The Buyout Phenomenon

Taking this prosperous opportunity to a new level, we have recently seen clear and admitted buyouts of Legacy staples that have dramatically increased the prices of those targeted cards (most recently City of Traitors and Helm of Awakening) while making those behind the buyout a lot of money.

What’s even more unprecedented is that instead of whispers and murmurs of a phantom "somebody" buying copies of any given card (I’m thinking of the Zendikar fetchland buyout a few years back), there is now actually a face to these buyouts. This is a man who has come forward and has said, "Oh yeah, those buyouts---I did that."

Craig Berry recently gave an interview to Corbin Hosler where he talked openly about having recognized the financial potential of buying up cards in order to capitalize upon them later. This is the man who bought out Moat and Lion's Eye Diamond, and who can very arguably be credited with the corresponding price adjustment for these cards.

Now, there are two sides to this argument. On one side, you have the business-minded folks who argue that Craig Berry did nothing more than take advantage of an opportunity. He had the financial means, the imagination, had done the research and maybe most importantly had the courage to drop a huge amount of money into one card, knowing that there is always a risk that the eventual flip might actually lose him money.

(It turns out in retrospect that perhaps the risk wasn’t actually all that great, and he knew it.)

You also have the other side of the argument---there are the people who feel that by buying out a card, that person is destroying the essence of the game by making it all that much harder for players who need those cards to acquire them. This argument implies that everyone who is involved with this game should recognize that this game is based around a community, and that by buying every copy one can of a card with the interest of watching the price adjust accordingly, such a person is actually working against the community.

The reality of the situation is that there is likely no right or wrong side. You’re going to have people who are passionate about their stance, but the secondary market of Magic is a free market with no way to be regulated, and it is open to anyone to... dare I say... manipulate? Sure, manipulating the market is in many ways disrespectful to the community as a whole...but does that make it wrong? More to the point---what can one do about it?

The Future of the Magic Market

But wait, there’s more. The plot thickens.

In an article published last week on Kotaku.com, it was announced that Martin Shkreli, the multi-millionaire ex-CEO and businessman notorious for raising the price of the antiparasitic drug Daraprim by 5,556% simply because he could (and in turn making the drug absolutely unaffordable by most who relied upon it), has turned his attention to Magic: The Gathering. A man who, arguably, could be considered the most despised man in America has recognized the possibilities of this free market.

What would happen to the game if someone with the sole intent of manipulating the market in order to turn a profit, and who had the financial means to do so, actually went through with it? What would the ripple effect of such an action have on the average player? These are all excellent questions. The only thing I could think of was the potential for Wizards to outright abolish the Reserved List as a response, regardless of the consequences.

What consequences? Theoretically, businesses from Star City Games right on down to your local game store could make an argument that by abolishing the Reserved List, Wizards of the Coast/Hasbro would be breaking an agreement to never reprint certain cards---an agreement that these businesses have relied on to make potentially enormous financial decisions. And should they decide to reprint them anyway, these businesses could theoretically sue for negative financial impact.

Admittedly I’m not a lawyer so I don’t know the ins and outs of these sorts of things, but in America, people get sued for seemingly anything.

Now, on the other hand, how good would an Eternal Masters set do if it included Revised dual lands, and other highly coveted cards such as Moat and Lion's Eye Diamond?

I think, as Larry David might say, "Pretty, pretty, pretty good."

Could the potential lawsuits actually be worth it in order to stop someone like Martin Shkreli from getting his hands on the game as a whole? And what if he sues himself? In fact, he threatened to do just that in response to a Twitter question on this exact topic. What could possibly be the end game here?

Starting the Conversation

Folks---the world has moved on. Magic finance is ever-changing, and the intentions of some people may not be wholesome or innocent. What will happen next? I don’t have that answer, but everything starts with a conversation, and I encourage you all to start talking.

The world is still moving on. Where it ends up, only time will tell...

Observations from an IQ

Posted on July 12, 2016 by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Rejoice Nexites, for the Modern PPTQ season fast approaches! The Modern Pro Tour may be gone but at least we still have an entire season to grind away for our shot at the big stage. While the season doesn't actually kick off for most until the end of the month, I got a taste of what is to come at a Modern IQ last weekend. Frankly, what I saw makes me a little nervous.

Initially I was planning on doing one of my usual tournament reports and going into detail on each game but the IQ didn't go that well for me. More importantly, there were only a few games where there was more to say than "I ran my opponent over" or "I got crushed", which when coupled with my observations of the tournament make me nervous about the upcoming PPTQ season. First though, it's time to update everyone on my Merfolk list.

[wp_ad_camp_1]

The Deck

Another tournament, another opportunity to drag out the old warhorse. Not that I haven't been playing around with other decks, but I've had more success over the past month with Merfolk than any of my brews and a few recent additions have been really paying off. I don't know what your local metagame looks like but mine has been increasingly grindy midrange and control decks, which has led me to up my threat count. Since Harbinger of the Tides isn't very effective against Jeskai or Scapeshift I've been running Vendilion Clique and have been very happy with that choice.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher

4 Silvergill Adept

4 Lord of Atlantis

4 Master of the Pearl Trident

3 Merrow Reejerey

2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

2 Vendilion Clique

3 Master of Waves

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Path to Exile

2 Echoing Truth

Lands

7 Island

4 Wanderwine Hub

4 Seachrome Coast

3 Mutavault

2 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard

3 Rest in Peace

3 Stony Silence

2 Hurkyl's Recall

2 Hibernation

2 Deprive

1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

2 Meddling Mage

Having complete information about your opponent's hand is good. It's even better when you can take away their best card in the process (which is why Thoughtseize is so powerful). Vendilion Clique does that and leaves a body behind, and a three-power flier is surprisingly hard for a lot of decks to deal with. It's been overall better than the Deprives that I ran last time I talked about the deck and I'm surprised it took me this long to figure it out. It is an exceptional follow-up to Supreme Verdict or as a way to preempt Ad Nauseam and Scapeshift and close out the game. If you find yourself struggling against control or combo, definitely consider Clique.

I moved the Deprives to the sideboard because you do want some catchalls for a number of matchups, and the Burrenton Forge-Tenders weren't seeing a lot of play. Anger of the Gods and Burn don't appear to be too popular anymore so there wasn't much need for them. The final change was to take out Unified Will for another Rest in Peace. Clique has reduced the need for counterspells so I was planning on cutting it when Dredge started showing up. I've advocated for graveyard hate in the past, but it feels especially important right now. Even if you don't see a lot of Dredge there are plenty of decks that rely on their graveyards and throwing a RiP-sized wrench in their plans is shockingly effective. I failed to effectively wield my hate in the tournament, but I was very glad I had it.

The Tournament

The IQ was six rounds long, which is pretty typical for Denver area tournaments. I ended up going 3-3 and finishing out of prizes. I made a questionable mulligan decision that cost me a match and had some bad luck that cost the other two, as well as good luck to win two matches, but I'm also not sure that Merfolk was well positioned to do much better at this IQ (more on that later). I was disappointed with my results but not with my deck and would definitely play that configuration again.

My Results:

Round 1: Matt, Burn (Win 2-1)

I lost the die roll and the first game but multiple Cursecatchers into lords won the other two. In addition to taking out Spreading Seas I shaved an Aether Vial and in game three I Cliqued Matt and found that he had two Destructive Revelry stranded in hand. It's good to out-board your opponent.

Sideboarding: -4 Spreading Seas -1 Aether Vial, +2 Deprive +1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner +1 Rest in Peace +1 Meddling Mage

Round 2: Anthony S., Affinity (Loss 1-2)

I get crushed game one, but game two I have Hurkyl's Recall into Stony Silence to buy enough time to get my offense together. In game three I keep a hand that has a very good curve but no interaction or hate, thinking in light of his mulligan that as long as he doesn't have Cranial Plating I can race. Naturally, he has Plating and I lose. On reflection I made the wrong decision and was rightfully punished.

Sideboarding: -4 Aether Vial -1 Cursecatcher, +2 Hurkyl's Recall +3 Stony Silence

Round 3: Anthony W., Death and Taxes (Loss 1-2)

This is my only match of the day that takes longer than 30 minutes. I crushed him game one, but in games two and three he found Sword of Fire and Ice and stomped me. Game three I had an opportunity to win after mostly clearing his board following an intense turn where he finally found colored mana that let him deploy the cards stuck in his hand. All I had to do was draw any Merfolk to tap his last blocker with Merrow Reejerey, a Path, or a Spreading Seas and I win. Instead I drew Vial and Anthony was able to finally play out his hand for the win.

Sideboarding: -1 Cursecatcher, +1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Round 4: Kelly, Infect (Loss 0-2, given match afterward)

Infect is already a bad matchup, and double-mulliganing doesn't help. I kept a one-lander game two because it had a lot of interaction and would have been great with another land. I never draw it and get crushed. Should have played the odds and taken the safe play. It ends up not mattering because Kelly wants to go and he gives me the win after we're done playing.

Sideboarding: -2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, +2 Deprive

Round 5: Ronnie, Jund (Win 2-0)

Ronnie doesn't draw very well this game. He's removal-light in both games while I have lord-heavy draws and just smash him. I did make a critical mistake game two that would have cost me if Ronnie had more removal than two Abrupt Decays. I've had pretty good results with Rest in Peace against Jund and was planning to bring in all three this game but got cold feet. This was a mistake because 1) The Deprive I played instead sat uselessly in my hand the whole game and 2) Ronnie's game was Grim Lavamancer, Scavenging Ooze, Tarmogoyf, and Kalitas. If Ronnie had played more than two removal spells or had more than one fetchland I would have been sunk. He didn't so I ran him over easily, but if I'd had RiP instead of Deprive there would never have been any danger. Lesson learned.

Sideboarding: -4 Aether Vial, +2 Deprive +1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner +1 Rest in Peace

Round 6: David Z., Dredge (Loss 0-2)

Urgh. Dredge is horrible, especially game one. I need a really fast draw with Seas to have a chance and my mulligan is not that. Game two I mulligan three times. I still would have won if I'd seen a white source. David kept a hand full of Lightning Axe and then didn't have very good dredges so I got seven extra draw steps. At one point he had three Prized Amalgams and Bloodghasts in his graveyard and no way to trigger them. RiP at that point would have effectively killed him but it wasn't to be.

Sideboarding: -2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner -1 Master of Waves, +3 Rest in Peace

I finished outside the prizes. My round 6 opponent finished in 9th place, but never really had a chance at the Top 8 due to his tiebreakers.

Top 8

2 GR Tron
2 Mardu Control
2 Abzan Company
1 Blue Moon
1 Affinity

It's odd to have a Modern Top 8 with only five decks, and this combined with my observations during the tournament have got me wondering about where the metagame is heading.

The Worry

Almost all my matches were fast, usually around 25 minutes. This gave me plenty of time to walk around and scout the field. I was a little concerned by what I saw. On a first pass the meta appeared to be a pretty normal spread, with a few of every deck present without one being overrepresented. However over the tournament there was a trend for the blue decks to bunch together at the bottom tables while Kiki-Chord, Infect, Tron, and Abzan Company rose to the top. By the end only the Blue Moon player who made Top 8 was at the top two tables representing blue, and I was the only one at the middle tables. Stranger, the only two Tron decks present on the day made Top 8, and one of them won the whole thing.

This result is only one datapoint and can't be used to draw any conclusions, but I bring it up because it's part of a trend I've noticed looking at other SCG IQ results. Namely, fair decks are losing ground to the "fair" and unfair decks. We're seeing an increasing number of unfair combo decks like Ad Nauseam and "fair" too-good-at-what-they-do decks like Tron make it into Top 8s while decks like Burn, Jeskai, and Jund fall off---that's concerning. For those of you who don't remember what I mean, I defined fair, "fair", and unfair here.

Fair decks keep things in balance. Their combination of interaction and threats pressure the less fair decks and under normal circumstances keep things from getting degenerate, oppressive, and unfun. This is why we've traditionally relied on good fair decks like Splinter Twin and Jund to keep decks like Infect and Storm down.

What worries me is that we're seeing more Tron, Infect, and Affinity now than a few months ago. We won't know the extent to which this is an overall trend or just a statistical quirk until Jason and Sheridan are ready to release the next metagame update, but I what I'm noticing is the steady march of Tron and Infect up the Metagame charts. Tron currently sits in second place on our chart with 7.6%, up from 3.6% back in April. I cannot say whether this was maintained in June, but given what I've seen in my own tournament play and from IQ results it is certainly possible.

More concerning is Infect, which represented 5.6% of the meta in April and 6.3% in June, and according to MTGGoldfish holds 7.65% of the online metagame, with MTGTop8 reporting an 8% share. Now, I hope it isn't actually as bad as those sources make it seem, but if Infect is in fact gaining significant amounts of ground in Modern that is dangerous. Decks that can kill before turn four are dangerous. Infect was a metagame call that you ran when the format was shield's down prior to Splinter Twin's banning, but now it's Tier 1 and gaining market share. I can't imagine that's coincidental.

Ad Nauseam has also been showing up in the standings more than it used to but I'm not too worried about that yet. The deck was always powerful, but not a lot of players knew how powerful it was before it started top-eighting Grand Prix. I suspect the current uptick in results is just the natural result of a growth in popularity rather than a reflection of its true power. It's also an unfair deck and thus more vulnerable to its own variance and will fall apart more readily than fair and "fair" decks. When I worry about deck power, it has to be from a combination of consistency, power, and speed that AN lacks, but Infect (and arguably Tron) possess.

Trouble in the Shadows

Beyond this nebulous dread is concern over the new set. Specifically I'm worried that [tippy title="Eldritch Evolution" width="330" height="330"][/tippy] might push some borderline "fair" decks into broken territory. I know I was down on it last week, but that was before I examined its impact on Elves more closely. Elves is a fairly average green aggro deck with a ridiculous mana engine that is kept from being a true player by consistency issues. When it hits its good cards, specifically Elvish Archdruid, Ezuri, Renegade Leader, and sometimes Craterhoof Behemoth, it appears to be utterly broken. When it doesn't it's one of the least impressive decks around. Collected Company and Chord of Calling help, but Chord is expensive and (relatively, in the context of the deck) slow and Company is inconsistent. Evolution fills the gap, and might be the missing piece to make Elves a tiered and possibly broken deck.

Abzan Company is another deck I'm eyeing with Evolution. A turn three "kill" is pretty good, and in Denver at least it sees a lot of play. If Evolution has a home there then that "kill" gets a lot more consistent and therefore oppressive. I don't know if that will happen but if it does then Company will become extremely powerful and popular, which will severely harm non-Infect aggro, and pose a burden on Infect as well thanks to Melira, Sylvok Outcast.

If these changes should come to pass, then coupled with the rise of Tron and Infect we could be looking at a very "fair" metagame soon, and that's going to be very frustrating for everyone else to deal with. While it wouldn't be as bad as Eldrazi Winter, it's still not good to have a lot of broken and overpowered decks in Tier 1 squeezing everything else out.

The Sky isn't Falling

I'll be the first to admit that this is mostly me venting my anxieties following a poor showing. Things might not be as bad as I think, and Modern definitely has the tools to keep these decks in check.

The problem is that I don't see them being played enough. Jeskai and Jund were underrepresented at my IQ and I fear they may be falling out of favor for more unfair decks. If this is just a temporary glitch then there's nothing to worry about, but the apparent increase in "fair" decks in IQ Top 8s recently has me worried that they're seeing more play because the fair decks aren't up to policing them effectively. Keep your eyes open, keep watch, and actually run the decks and cards needed to police the format. What's the point of claiming the format can police itself if nobody is playing the police decks?

Insider: Finding Value in the Moon

Posted on July 12, 2016January 17, 2022 by Brian DeMars

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

"That's no moon. It's an Eldrazi."

"It's too big to be an Eldrazi."

"I have a bad feeling about this..."

I think we need to stop and ask ourselves one critical question: Why are moons always trying to kill us?

If it isn't the Death Star, it's Emrakul. And if it isn't some plane-destroying Eldrazi, it's a damn Tidal Wave. Don't even get me started on the grotesque evil that is Blood Moon... One thing is for certain---moons are completely out of control and pose the greatest threat to humanity the world has ever known.

The full spoiler for Eldritch Moon is complete and we are just a few days out from partaking in prerelease party time. I've found myself looking forward to the release for the past few weeks for a variety of reasons:

Standard has been beyond stale for the past month and is in desperate need of some shaking up.
I prefer drafting formats with two sets as opposed to three packs of the same set.
All things considered the set looks pretty interesting and has some cool cards.

In today's article I'm going to take a look at where I think the good value cards in Eldritch Moon are. These are the cards I believe have the best chance of maintaining or gaining value.

Looking for Cheese in the Moon

One thing I noticed right out of the gate when I started checking presale prices was that the asking prices seemed kind of steep for the "good cards" in the set. More often than not that is to be expected with presale prices, since there will never be more demand for these cards than there is right now before the set releases.
We all know the drill. New set, prices are high, people open millions of packs, prices come down.

What's amazing is that despite the fact that the game is completely stacked against single cards maintaining, let alone gaining, value, some cards beat all odds and go up. These cards are truly Han Soloesque in thumbing their collective noses at "the odds."

Anyway, what I like to do is try and predict which cards in a set are going to be the "devil may care" odds breakers and get ahold of as many copies as I can.

I'm generally looking for those few unique cards that I believe can sustain or gain value after the initial "new set hype" has worn off. Not always the sexiest picks, but these are the kinds of cards that people undervalue but ultimately want to own. I've got five of them for you today.

Estimating Prices

One thing that I like to do when I'm predicting prices is to guess what I think the price of the new cards will be before I look at the presale prices. I like to look at a specific card and evaluate what price point I see that card settling into in a month or two once people have had a chance to crack packs for a while.

For instance, when I looked at Gideon, Ally of Zendikar I estimated it would be a $15-20 Standard-only card. When I saw it was preselling for $40 I could confidently say it wasn't a good investment card because it almost certainly couldn't sustain that high price tag.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

However, sometimes there are cards where I guess the "settled-in price" and it is lower than the presale price. These tend to be the cards I target because they feel cheap. If I'm going to trade for extra cards to hold onto I'd rather get those kinds of cards than ones that are likely to drop a ton of value quickly.

So, my picks are rarely the big sexy flashy mythics that are obviously the most impactful cards in the set but rather the kinds of cards that people tend to overlook that are just solid Magic cards. Enough about the process, more about the picks.

Sigarda's Aid

SCG is preselling at $2.99. I predicted the tag on this card would be between $5-$6 for presale and that it would settle into the $3 range and ultimately be a good long-term gainer. $3 seems too low especially for a presale price on this card.

For starters, the card is extremely unique. It does a ton of weird and interesting stuff. And it only costs one mana.

The card generates mana. It is mana specific to paying an equip cost but mana nonetheless. The other insanely cool thing this card does is that it makes all your equipment become combat tricks.

I attack with my Grizzly Bears. You block with your creature. I flash in an equipment like Brassknuckles of Pwn and make my creature win in combat.

This ability doesn't care if you cast the equipment. So, I could use Stoneforge Mystic to put Batterskull onto the battlefield and then attach the Batterskull directly to my True-Name Nemesis. Not saying this is a Legacy card but it is worth noting that if you cheat an equipment into play the "free attach" still applies.

Last but not least, it also gives auras flash as well. The card is clearly better with equipment (because it makes mana) but there might also be some spicy auras you want to play. It is worth noting that you can use defensive auras like Control Magic or Pacifism at instant speed with Sigarda's Aid.

This will be an auto-include in every casual or Commander equipment deck from now until forever. Very unique and very awesome. It feels like the kind of card you could actually build a competitive deck around. I feel strongly about this card being a good long- and short-term gainer.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow

I may be partially blinded by my own personal enjoyment of this card but I felt that sub-$3 prices on TCG and $4 on SCG presale felt very low. I'm usually very close on predicting presale prices and I thought this card was going to be closer to $8 or $10. I could have seen it settling into a $4 price tag but to be preselling there felt very low to me.

First of all, I think this is a very above-average Magic card. I'm typically drawn to excellent constructed cards by virtue of having played Magic forever. I see certain cards and make the connection to others that have been good in the past. Ishkanah has elements of Cloudgoat Ranger and Siege-Gang Commander, two Constructed powerhouses in their day.

Grim Flayer is preselling for between $10-15 and that card stinks if you aren't consistently unlocking the achievement of delirium. So, in order to assume that card is playable we have to assume that delirium is a reasonable thing to get with consistency.

If delirium is reasonable to achieve, Ishkanah is a good card. Five mana for a 3/5 and three 1/2's, all with reach, is a great deal. That is a lot of bodies and a lot of the ability to block creatures in the sky. The flying spirit tribe got a bunch of crazy cards in this set, and I expect flying to be an important ability in this Standard, so that makes Ishkanah look even better.

Note that the drain ability is not irrelevant as it gives you a way to win without ever having to attack. Not a bad clause on a wall-like creature that makes three other good blockers.

I also think this card has style and flavor. I used to have a Xira Arien "pests"-themed Commander deck. I picked Xira because she had the creature type insect even though I didn't really want red cards. I will probably hunt down a foil Ishkanah and build a Golgari-themed Commander deck. I may have to keep Xira since the combination of Dragonlair Spider and Ishkanah fighting side by side is almost too tempting to pass up...

I think this card will see Standad play in GBx Delirium. It has uniqueness and casual appeal. It's better than $3.

Noose Constrictor

SCG has this uncommon preselling at $0.25---and it has a pretty reasonable chance of being the standout uncommon of the set.

First of all, Wild Mongrel dominated Standard back in the day. Yes, times were different, but Mongrel was crazy-good. And Constrictor is a straight upgrade to everybody's favorite pup because we've now added reach! I've actually had to reread the spoiler like ten times because I'm having a hard time believing this card actually exists!

I think all of the reach cards may be an indicator that the spirit tribe will be a big deal. This bodes well for Constrictor as it does for Ishkanah. I've been playing Noose Constrictor in my Bant Collected Company deck and really enjoying it.

It's pretty cute that it's hard to kill with a Dromoka's Command when you are on the draw against the Sylvan Advocate-into-Command hand. It's also a good target for your own Dromoka's Commands in situations where they might respond to your Command with their own Command.

I see this being a Silkwrap-type card in the short term. There is also a chance this card has Modern applications.

Stitcher's Graft

Okay, this is by far my loosest pick of the five, but I think it still has some merits. The card is basically a junk rare, selling for about $0.40 on TCG. So, not really much risk.

The big thing about this card is that it pairs really, really nicely with Stone Haven Outfitter.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stone Haven Outfitter

I know this because I've built a lot of Stone Haven Outfitter decks for Standard. I believe Outfitter is the most powerful card in Standard that hasn't found a home yet. I've actually written about the card as a spec target before so it is kind of cool to see the card get a new equipment.

I don't think Stitcher's Graft is going to tear Standard apart right now. But there's a chance that post-rotation (especially if a possibly artifact-heavy Kaladesh brings more toys) a card like Stone Haven could become a real player.

Back to Graft. So, it is pretty sweet that the drawback of having to sacrifice your creatures to move the equipment is negated by drawing a card off Outfitter. You can also circumvent the "no untap" clause by attaching it to a creature with vigilance (like Avacyn) or a creature you intend to block with repeatedly.

One to cast and two to equip is a very cheap rate for +3/+3 if you can negate the drawbacks. It is also a nice way to sacrifice a creature like Hangarback Walker or flip your Archangel Avacyn while protecting another creature from her flip trigger. I also wouldn't mind equipping Nissa's plant tokens with this sucker.

The drawback isn't as big as it appears. First of all, the equipped creature doesn't untap only if it attacked. So, if you tap an equipped Hangarback Walker to put a +1/+1 counter on itself it will still untap as normal.

If you do attack, the creature doesn't untap during your next untap step but it will untap on the following turn. Everybody I've talked to about this card seems to have misread it and thinks the creature stays locked down forever, which isn't true.

You can also use a card like Bounding Krasis to untap a creature tapped down with this equipment. There is a lot you can do with this card just because the rate is so outrageous and the downside is so easily negligible. I think this card is actively great and much better than a bulk rare!

Collective Defiance

Last but not least, Collective Defiance.

Red is bad right now. It did get a sorcery-speed Incinerate but generally speaking this format is likely to be about green-white decks and maybe GBx control decks. It is not a good time to be a red mage...

Red right now reminds me of an expansion sports team. It has some nice pieces going for it but there is no way it can compete with Golden State or Cleveland in their prime. Maybe when some of those pieces retire and some of your draft picks mature it'll be your day to shine, Hometown Red Deck.

One of those shiny pieces is likely to be Collective Defiance. All of the modes on the card are fine and the fact you can team up, er, escalate and get more than one mode is pretty sweet.

Red cards are so contextual when it comes to price. Exquisite Firecraft was a $12 card at one point. It all depends on whether the red deck is good and which rares it plays.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Firecraft

So, being that the red deck is likely unplayable right now I think the tag on Defiance is suppressed for the time being. After many of the insane format-defining cards from Origins and Dragons rotate out, assuming red gets some help in Kaladesh, a card like Collective Defiance could easily jump up into the $5+ range as players clamor to reacquire the copies they traded away at fifty cents each.

Focus on the Boring Cards

Well, we didn't get to talk about the flashiest cards in the set---but that isn't really my strategy when it comes to MTG speculation. I'm looking strictly for the cards that have the best price tag-to-"how good it is" ratio. Today we looked at five new Eldritch Moon cards that I believe are likely to maintain or gain value down the road despite presale hype.

Lastly, I'd like to Apollo-gise for the excessive moon bashing at the beginning of the article. Eldritch Moon looks like it might be the first moon in a long time that isn't a total jerk.

"Where shall I drape this wet, primitive Earth Towel?"

-Ignignokt

Enjoy the prerelease and GL!

Deck of the Week: Chord Toolbox

Posted on July 11, 2016 by Jason Schousboe

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

We're trying something new here at Modern Nexus for the Monday slot. I'd like to use this day's publication for a Deck of the Week feature, where I'll scour the internet for an interesting or innovative build that recently put up results. My aim is to spotlight the unfamiliar and less dominant archetypes here, so don't expect Jund, Affinity or Tron to make regular appearances. Instead, I'll be on the lookout for decks that are the clear result of brewing and tweaking---after all, if the core Tier 1 and Tier 2 cannon in Modern is well established, one of the format's key elements is the fertile ground it provides brewers---probably more so than any other tournament format.

Today's deck is a modified version of Kiki Chord that made Top 8 at the Bazaar of Moxen in Strasbourg last week in the hands of Hervé Stanus. The deck is listed as "Chord Toolbox" on mtgtop8, and while it's basically a Kiki Chord deck, there are definitely some odd things going on. Take a look:

[wp_ad_camp_1]

Chord Toolbox, by Hervé Stanus (6th, Bazaar of Moxen, 7/3/16)

Creatures

3 Arbor Elf

1 Avalanche Riders

1 Aven Mindcensor

3 Eternal Witness

2 Fauna Shaman

1 Fiend Hunter

1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

2 Kitchen Finks

1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

1 Qasali Pridemage

4 Restoration Angel

1 Reveillark

1 Satyr Wayfinder

1 Scavenging Ooze

1 Spellskite

4 Voice of Resurgence

Enchantments

1 Evolutionary Leap

3 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

4 Chord of Calling

3 Path to Exile

Lands

1 Canopy Vista

1 Cinder Glade

2 Forest

1 Mountain

1 Plains

1 Raging Ravine

1 Stirring Wildwood

2 Stomping Ground

2 Temple Garden

1 Verdant Catacombs

4 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender

1 Crumble to Dust

1 Eidolon of Rhetoric

1 Engineered Explosives

1 Evolutionary Leap

1 Fiery Justice

1 Fulminator Mage

1 Lightning Helix

1 Obstinate Baloth

1 Phyrexian Revoker

1 Reclamation Sage

1 Scavenging Ooze

2 Stony Silence

1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

The first thing you'll notice are those Arbor Elfs sitting there in the spot usually reserved for Birds of Paradise. They are complemented (and explained) by the three-of Utopia Sprawl to form the acceleration package so crucial to goodstuff combo decks like this. Assuming you've fetched up both a Temple Garden and a Stomping Ground, the Arbor Elf is more than capable of doing a Birds impression, which is made more reliable by the adherence to just three colors. Once you add in a Utopia Sprawl, Arbor Elf gets to turbo-charge your mana production, allowing for a four-drop on turn two (!) and producing six mana on turn three. That can lead to some pretty busted starts, including the nut draw of a full-on combo kill on turn three.

The combo, of course, is the tried-and-true Restoration Angel/Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker pairing. Alone, these cards work along the same lines as in other versions of Kiki Chord, rebuying the various enter-the-battlefield effects to bury the opponent in value. Eternal Witness rounds out the package to get back a dead Kiki-Jiki for the combo kill (assuming it didn't traverse a Path to Exile), a used up or countered Chord of Calling to find a silver bullet, or just another body to apply more pressure.

Stanus pushed the tutor dimension of his build even further with the addition of Fauna Shaman and Evolutionary Leap. The former was a constructed staple during its time in Standard, where it kept the threats flowing in the midgame and doubled as a deceptively relevant body for beating down. Here it serves as a reasonable replacement for old stand-by Birthing Pod (albeit at a much lower power level), finding bullets against specific archetypes or simply the missing piece of the combo kill. Evolutionary Leap works in a similar fashion, allowing Stanus to churn through his deck for a steady stream of value creatures, all while blanking removal from the opponent (and protecting the one-of Kiki-Jiki from hitting the exile zone). There's a second one in the board, which I imagine comes in in the grindier matchups that aim to kill all your creatures.

Beyond that, it's pretty much more of the same-old Kiki Chord, doing its best Pod impression and letting the value-combo players relive their glory days of yore. I'm unsure if this build is superior to the more traditional Kiki Chord lists, but it's certainly interesting to see Fauna Shaman make an appearance. While Fauna Shaman is not new to the format, it's one of the more powerful and format-defining cards from past Standard formats that has yet to really break out in Modern. There is a solid chance that the card is underplayed in other archetypes too---Abzan Company comes to mind as a deck that could be able to benefit from its inclusion.

This deck is also another candidate for [tippy title="Eldritch Evolution" width="330" height="330"]
[/tippy], the new Natural Order variant that may revolutionize goodstuff toolbox strategies. Between Chord, Fauna Shaman, Evolutionary Leap, and Collected Company, there are a plethora of options for finding bullet and combo pieces in a green-based creature deck. I fully expect people to continue to rock the typical Abzan Company and Kiki Chord lists, but this build points to the potential of underexplored options.

Future Decks of the Week

I would like to hear from our readers on this new Deck of the Week feature. Is this something you're interested in seeing more of? What kind of decks are you most excited to read about? Alternately, if there's anything else in particular you'd like me to write on---something you feel doesn't receive enough attention in the Modern content sphere these days---let us know. I'm still looking to find the right content for Monday articles, so hopefully your comments and suggestions will help!

Insider: High Stakes MTGO – July 3rd to July 9th

Posted on July 11, 2016January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Hi everyone and welcome back for another week of High Stakes MTGO!

Finally, some movements in my portfolio. Several buys and sales were on the menu for this past week. Besides the fact that I want to adjust my bankroll a bit, this period is a very usual transition period for players and speculators. Following the release of the summer set on MTGO---Eternal Masters just few weeks ago---the Legacy Festival events kicked in right after that and just prior to the release of Eldritch Moon, the new Standard set on MTGO.

All these events happening within a few weeks created, or will create, a lot of ups and downs in the market. It's always a delicate moment for speculators trying to time sales and buys at the best possible prices.

As I'm writing these lines, it appears that I may have missed the optimal selling window for several of my Legacy Festival-related specs. On the buying side I'm expecting the release events associated with EMN to create the price drop we always see during the release of new Standard sets, making me wonder if my EMA purchases this past week, as well as my most recent buys, were well-timed. At worst, and if prices get really low, I'm ready to add several playsets to my stocks.

Finally, there are about two dozen Modern and Standard positions I'm thinking about selling now while they are profitable rather than holding them going into EMN release events. In summary, a lot of thinking and debating on what is the most profitable move at this point. Let's see what happened this past week for my portfolio.

As usual, the live spreadsheet is accessible here.

Buys This Week

Cryptbreaker has a lot of what zombie fans could have wished for---an unbeatable mana cost, a drawing engine that doesn't require taping, the ability to generate its own buddies, and this guy is himself a zombie! I like playing casual Zombies in Modern and throwing a card like Cryptbreaker in a deck with Zombie Infestation, Bloodghast, Blasting Station, Blood Artist, Dark Prophecy, Bridge From Below and... Gravecrawler seems at the very least fun, if not borderline competitive.

Whether or not this new Eldritch Moon zombie addition can be a thing in Modern is totally hypothetical at this point, but I simply bet that Gravecrawler will be an auto four-of inclusion if something happens. I'm not expecting Gravecrawler to suddenly be at 15 tix but I think the spec is worth the shot.

Almost a year ago I bought this one banking on the combined fact that Arcum has such a unique effect and that Coldsnap supplies were low enough on MTGO to justify buying it at ~1 tix and waiting for something to happen. In such a case Arcum Dagsson could easily reach 10 tix in my opinion.

When I see Allosaurus Rider totally breaking free from 0 to 3 tix in two days, based on virtually nothing serious, I think my reasoning with Arcum was actually right. However, on the path to winning the lottery, Modern flashback drafts got announced. So much for my calculated spec partially based on scarce supplies---I sold my copies of Arcum Dagsson before CSP flashback drafts hit and made a tiny profit in the process.

Arcum was not on my radar any more but when I realized he had dropped to 0.1 tix last week that was an opportunity that could not be missed. Now my new Arcum Dagsson spec has the potential of before but this new buying price totally nullifies any risk. I might even try to bump my stock to 100 copies if the price gets back under 0.2 tix during EMN release events.

Cabal Therapy is the only "serious" spec I made with Eternal Masters. I wished I had bought more copies sooner and maybe not been so strict with my buying price limit. I didn't want to pay more than 2 tix for these in order to minimize any risk. It's possible I should have been more flexible. We'll see if it was a mistake in a few months.

With the exception of Cabal Therapy these are my only picks in EMA so far. Following my reasoning from last week about Legacy/Vintage reprint specs, any of these few bulk common and uncommons may actually generate as many tix as two playsets of Wasteland one year from now.

I was not in the mood to spend 300 tix or so on Wasteland or Force of Will. If can turn 10 tix in 150 tix instead I'm all for it at this specific time point for my portfolio.

Sales This Week

Is the best of this tutor behind us? After a peak at 58 tix late June, Infernal Tutor slid down to 49 tix this past week. I sold my copies to lock up some profit and not knowing exactly what would happen next. As I mentioned in the introduction, timing the best selling (or buying) window is always tricky and as of Saturday (four days after I sold my copies) this tutor was back up to 53 tix!

In conclusion, despite a very decent profit I sold my Infernal Tutor in what appears to be the worst selling point of these past five weeks. On the other hand I haven't sold my Counterbalance for which the price has lost 35% tix of its value since its initial peak to 20 tix at the end of May---MTGO speculations in all their beauty.

I was not expecting to break a record with this one. With an increase of about 50% in the last four weeks I simply thought it was good enough for Geist of Saint Traft. This 10 tix to 15 tix price fluctuation has been on for almost a year now with an exception last September, so I'm perfectly happy selling at this price.

Another big miss from my Magic Origins specs. I really think this card is not going anywhere and 2 tix for a mythic that is going nowhere is pretty high. I prefer selling Starfield of Nyx now rather than waiting longer and see this mythic most likely languishing until ORI rotates out of Standard.

A nice little spec, especially considering I kept my copies through Coldsnap flashback drafts. My buying price was not optimal and I could have bought more additional copies after the flashback drafts. In the end I gladly take these 109 extra tix for a few baubles.

It seems Shivan Reef will be the first painland I'm clearing from my big ORI painlands spec. There's still a chance that EMN changes the Standard metagame to favor URx decks. If so then I'll have a few more playsets to maybe enjoy a better selling price. All in all, I'm really trying to liquidate my painlands every time the opportunity is good enough as the clock is ticking before ORI rotates out of Standard and the prices of the five painlands return to dust.

While full set specs were supposed to be safe and bring moderate profits over several months they are more like hit or miss for me now. OGW and JOU full sets were very performant, THS full sets ended up costing me money, and my still-current BNG, KTK, FRF and BFZ full sets are barely breaking even. With an ROI of 39% my M15 full sets were actually in the high range of what I would expect from full set specs.

No real motivation here to try to push harder with these and it's probably a great time to sell these sets before EMN release events drag every price down.

On My Radar

My business plan for the next two to three weeks is very simple---sell the rest of my Modern and Legacy positions that are at a local high and anticipate buying opportunities during the release events of EMN. I might do a second round of purchases with EMA and will try to build a short list of currently cheap Standard cards that could benefit from what EMN brings to the table.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Insider: Complete Review – Eldritch Moon Rares and Mythics in Modern

Posted on July 11, 2016January 17, 2022 by Sheridan Lardner

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

The wait is over! Wizards has unveiled the full Eldritch Moon list (and story), and now it's time to start brewing. Also, time to either keep complaining about the big Emrakul reveal and Gatewatch resolution, or keep defending Wizards' story department.

Over the last few weeks, I've been evaluating and testing various Moon staples for Modern, most recently Eldritch Evolution over on Modern Nexus. Although we haven't yet found a new Tier 1 staple like Shadows' Nahiri, the Harbinger, Moon's early reception suggests a lot of Modern potential in Magic's newest set.

If nothing else, I'm just happy Wild Mongrel has returned, bigger and badder than ever. Too bad about fellow Odyssey block hopeful, Innocent Blood...

The Eldritch Moon prerelease is next weekend, but we're already seeing Moon pre-sale prices jumping up to impressive levels. As usual, this movement is focused around the new set's rares and mythics, which comprise a disproportionate share of Moon's value. Today, I'm going to go through all the Moon rares and mythics looking for valuable pre-sale targets, focusing the analysis around their playability in Modern.

I'm not personally one for pre-sale speculation, but I know many investors rely on early playability assessments to make their major financial moves. Although I haven't tested literally every card in this review, you can rest assured the evaluations will be grounded in the current Modern metagame context and its extensive history of booms (Nahiri! Ulamog 2.0!) and busts (remember Thing in the Ice?).

I'll be giving each card a rating using the following categories:

Buy now: the card is playable and undervalued at its current pre-sale price. Get them early.
Buy later: the card is playable but overvalued at its current pre-sale price. Snipe them later.
Gamble: the card might be playable and is reasonably priced. If you have extra capital, these are acceptable risks.
Stay away: the card is not playable regardless of its price. Avoid these.

I'm not giving any explicit advice about selling cards, but you can easily invert the categories to figure out how you should sell cards you pick up. For example, a "Buy now" shouldn't be sold at all. A "Buy later" should get offloaded as soon as possible. As usual, if you have any questions about specific cards or want more information, hit me up in the comments.

White

Bruna, the Fading Light

Stay away

Big, expensive white creatures rarely pan out in Modern, and Bruna is no exception. You'll hear people talking about a hypothetical "White Tron" deck to abuse this, but that's more fantasy than reality; you would never play that deck over the existing U/W Gifts Ungiven Tron, let alone the Tier 1 R/G Tron.

Collective Effort

Gamble

At around $2, Effort is a decent buy if you think white-based decks might use this in their sideboard or maindeck. Great with dorks like Noble Hierarch and/or past turn three, when you can play a creature and then play Effort for at least two modes without losing tempo. Kills Tarmogoyfs and larger and pumps the team.

Deploy the Gatewatch

Stay away

Gimmicky Superfriends decks are nowhere near functional in Modern. Doesn't even work in the hypothetical White Tron list because you need double-white, which Chromatic Sphere and Star can't consistently achieve. The flip chance on Deploy isn't bad, but that's only if you pack your deck with walkers; not a winning Modern recipe in a fast format.

Gisela, the Broken Blade

Stay away

Great in Standard, terrible in Modern. Four-mana creatures cannot die to Lightning Bolt unless they win on the spot or have a powerful effect regardless of their death. Gisela doesn't accomplish either.

Providence

Gamble

Extremely underpriced at just $0.50. Providence is one of those free Leyline-style effects which could get broken in Modern down the line. You could do much worse than gambling on a bunch of these for a few bucks.

Sanctifier of Souls

Stay away

Even worse than Gisela on the Bolt Test scale because his impact is even more minimal (at least Gisela lifelinks).

Selfless Spirit

Buy now

This is an excellent card in Abzan Company, Kiki Chord, Elves, and any other Collected Company/Chord of Calling decks that exist (or could exist) in Modern. Burrenton Forge-Tender has an edge at just one-mana and with other Burn applications, but Sanctifier stops even proper Wrath effects and can create combat blowouts. $3 is a steal for this kind of effect.

Sigarda's Aid

Buy later

This is a very unique effect that just gets better with time. It's also excellent in the Puresteel Paladin Modern Cheerios deck, as well as the more value-driven Stone Haven Outfitter lists. That said, this is overpriced at $2.50 - $3; Moon is going to see lots of packs opened, and a niche rare like this is sure to fall. Once they do, be there to pick up the pieces.

Thalia, Heretic Cathar

Buy later

Thalia is good but not $9 good. That would be a tough sell even if she weren't a promotional card, a status which dooms her to a lower price-tag once Moon packs get opened in earnest. That said, she's quite decent in Modern Hatebears, Abzan Liege, and other decks relying on turn one dork into turn two big play. When you see that price falling, get in around the $2-$4 range.

Thalia's Lancers

Stay away

Strong effect, unplayable casting-cost. Time of Need sees no play, which suggests this effect just isn't worth it period, let alone on a five-mana body.

Blue

Coax from the Blind Eternities

Buy later

Three-mana tutors are bad, but this is secretly a two-mana tutor in blue-based Tron lists (courtesy of the Tron lands themselves). Given the synergy between colorless Eldrazi cards and the Urzatron engine, I wouldn't bet against this in the long term. Wait for this card to lose value and then jump in around $1.

Docent of Perfection

Gamble

Dragonlord Ojutai sees some scattered play in blue-white decks and Docent does a similar impression. Docent actually generates value better than Ojutai, even if he's more vulnerable without hexproof. That said, the little 1/1 Wizards clog up the board against aggressive strategies, and the $1 price-tag means a low risk. If this ever became a Grixis or other blue-based control top-ender, it could easily double or triple in value. Also, how can you not want to buy this card? The flavor is so brilliant.

Identity Thief

Stay (far) away

Easily the worst blue rare in the set, and in the running for one of the worst Moon rares in any color. Great art and name, but the mechanics just aren't there.

Imprisoned in the Moon

Buy later (but not much later)

For me, this is one of the most undervalued cards of the set. Blue-white decks were already running Detention Sphere, and although Imprisoned doesn't hit as many targets in one cast, it stops some of the biggest threats to UWx. This includes a maindeck catchall to Liliana of the Veil, Urzatron lands, Inkmoth Nexus, enemy Nahiris, etc. $2 feels a bit high for a rare in a Standard season dominated by green-white and not blue, but once this drops by a dollar it's a solid pickup.

Mausoleum Wanderer

Buy later

If Modern Esper Spirits ever becomes a thing, Wanderer will be a staple card. The Spirit Cursecatcher is a bit high at around $3, but once it falls you'll want to make a move in the event Spirits ever gets the boost to Tier 3 it needs.

Mind's Dilation

Stay away

Eldritch Moon's obligatory flashy and terrible blue mythic doesn't disappoint, at least not on the "flashy and terrible" scale. This wouldn't be playable if it triggered for every single spell, let alone just the one on its textbox.

Niblis of Frost

Stay away

The Bolt Test does in another Moon four-drop. Niblis would have had promise as a two-drop or maybe a three-drop, but four just doesn't cut it.

Summary Dismissal

Gamble

I can't see this card in Standard, which means it's only going to go down from its current $1 price-tag. At sub-$1, however, it's got some investment potential. Dismissal is no Cryptic Command, but it does stop Eldrazi triggers and doubles as a versatile catchall against Expedition Map triggers, Abzan Company sacrifice and persist effects, Nahiri ultimates, and much more. Probably not playable, but there are metagames where you could see 1-2 of these between the main and sideboard of blue-based decks.

Wharf Infiltrator

Stay away

If the token generation didn't a) come with a cost and b) restrict itself to creature-card discards, this could have been a decent tempo two-drop. Unfortunately, Infiltrator fails on both a) and b), relegating it to the bulk bin.

Black

Collective Brutality

Buy later

I can't tell if $3 is over- or underpriced for this card, but I can tell Brutality is playable. Turn two Brutality pitching a Lingering Souls in Abzan is excellent, killing a dork or Infect creature and removing a pump-spell and Company/Chord. Grixis can also use this as a versatile, but powerful, anti-Burn card; the deck historically lacks playable lifegain and Brutality fixes that. Whether you bite the bullet and buy now or wait until it drops to the $1.50 range, look to get these soon.

Cryptbreaker

Stay away

Modern Zombies needs something to work, but Cryptbreaker isn't that something. The slow one-drop doesn't cut it in the speedy Modern metagame.

Dark Salvation

Stay away

Way too expensive for a minimal effect. It's okay-ish against decks with one-drops, but underwhelming if those one-drops have already swung. Also, playing this on turn three feels bad when you could play Maelstrom Pulse, Tasigur or Kolaghan's Command instead.

Liliana, the Last Hope

Buy later

Is new Liliana playable? Yes; a number of decks, including the underrated but also underpowered Faeries, wants this effect. Is new Liliana a $25-$30 card? Absolutely not. Standard is so dominated by green-white decks right now that it can't drive Liliana's price, and neither Legacy nor other formats really want her. She's at her best in Modern, but even there, $30 is more than three times what she's probably worth. Pick these up when the price is more realistic.

Noosegraf Mob

Stay away

It's too bad this card is six mana. As a smaller two- or three-drop, this would have been playable, dodging removal by creating tokens to replace it. Six-mana, however, is a killer in Modern unless you're Primeval Titan and similar effects.

Oath of Liliana

Stay away

None of the sacrifice effects are playable in Modern at any competitive level, outside of the original Liliana of the Veil herself. That's why we needed Innocent Blood! Instead, we got Liliana's Oath, and the result is a mediocre Standard card with no chance in Modern.

Stromkirk Condemned

Stay away

If only the Condemned could be activated twice per turn. Just twice! That would have brought the Vampire lord out of Bolt range and made the tribe quite a bit better with a two-drop, madness-enabling leader. As written, however, the best this is going to do is Standard roleplayer.

Tree of Perdition

Stay away

Corrupt Tree of Redemption is one of my favorite cards in the set, but not one of its best for Modern. The Triskaidekaphobia combo is silly in Standard, let alone in high-powered Modern, and the Tree's only redeeming quality is beating Abzan Company after they're at thirty trillion life. That said, if you are still interested in the combo, the MTG Salvation brewers have been hard at work on the wonderfully-named TreesKaidekaphobia since late June.

Red

Assembled Alphas

Stay away

When I first listed all the red cards, I literally forgot about Alphas and only caught it when I double-checked the official list. That should give you some sense of its Modern prospects.

Bedlam Reveler

Buy later

Earlier this week, Reveler would have been a "Buy now," but $5-$6 is a bit optimistic for a card that is unlikely to see Standard play. That said, this is a very strong card and not because it does a Treasure Cruise impression in Burn. The average Burn game is never going to see that many lands, instants, and sorceries in play if you haven't already won or are so far behind that not even Reveler will save you. URx Delver decks, however, could definitely welcome Reveler to the fold. Buy once they hit the $3 range.

Collective Defiance

Stay away

Defiance's rate is way too low for any Modern red decks. Paying four mana for a combo Lava Spike/Flame Slash is not a winning proposition no matter what archetype you are running.

Hanweir Garrison

Stay away

Fixed Goblin Rabblemaster is probably going to see Standard play, but with Rabblemaster not even cutting it in Modern, the extra toughness on Garrison isn't going to get the card there. Humans doesn't make the Modern cut as-is, and Garrison doesn't even race like Rabblemaster does (nor can it sit back and throw tokens).

Harmless Offering

Gamble

Red Donate is eventually going to get broken in Modern, slotting into a Tier 2 or Tier 3 deck that sees occasional (or even regular) Modern play. We're just missing the proverbial Illusions of Grandeur to Donate. I'm going to pick these up just out of principle; I always like to be on the cutting edge of any new combo deck, and Offering is just waiting for another piece before it goes big.

Impetuous Devils

Stay away

Ball Lighting creatures don't make it in Modern because you can't pay 3-4 mana for a burn spell that dies to a Bolt. Devils doesn't change that reality.

Mirrorwing Dragon

Stay away

Blue gets the obligatory mythic enchantment and red gets the obligatory mythic dragon. Mirrorwing is significantly better than the terrible Mind's Dilation, but still doesn't make it in Modern; five-mana is too much for a creature that doesn't actually have protection from Path and Terminate. Even if we do treat the mirroring ability as a virtual hexproof, a 4/5 flying, hexproof for five still wouldn't make it. As for Mirrorwing's combo applications, if the cheaper Zada, Hedron Grinder sucked in that department, Dragon probably will too.

Nahiri's Wrath

Buy later

I have a bad but fun Breaking // Entering reanimator deck tucked away in my Magic shelf, and Wrath is exactly what the deck wanted instead of the erratic Kindle the Carnage. Wrath's effect is unique and powerful, and I can see other discard-matters decks wanting the massive sweeper. Once this card falls, it becomes a decent grab.

Stromkirk Occultist

Stay away

Vampire Madness might be a deck in Standard but it sure won't be in Modern. Jund Madness might become a Modern deck, in no small part due to Noose Constrictor, but the Condemned is still too slow even for that strategy.

Green

Eldritch Evolution

Buy later

Evolution is an excellent card that I expect will see Modern play. That said, I don't think we're going to see it in a big way in Standard, and Standard success is the only way this sorcery is going to sustain a $10+ price-tag. Once this drops to the sub-$8 mark, Evolution becomes a much more attractive target, and that's where I suggest investors wait until they buy.

Emrakul's Evangel

Stay away

You can't pay three-mana for a Boltable three-drop that doesn't have an immediate game impact or threaten to win the game next turn. Evangel does neither, and doesn't even synergize well with token decks because he kills the tokens to remove any of their amassed +1/+1 counters courtesy of Township or other effects.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow

Stay away

Flavor home-run, playability strike-out. Delirium is surprisingly difficult to turn on in Modern (although Noose Constrictor changes that to some extent), and Grafwidow isn't the payoff you want if you do achieve the keyword.

Permeating Mass

Stay away

I've seen a lot of players evaluating this as a great chump-blocker for Modern's biggest threats like Tarmogoyf. The thing is, there's no reason to play this over something like Wasteland Viper, which actually kills the bigger creatures outright. Mass is a bit better against stuff like Goblin Guide and Monastery Swiftspear, where it survives to block again, but that's still a liability with Atarka's Command in the mix.

Spirit of the Hunt

Gamble

The Spirit insulates the Werewolf Company/Vial deck against damage-based sweepers, not to mention wrecking combat math and defeating Bolt. At just $1 with a lot of room to keep falling when the deck invariably flounders in Standard, Spirit has a lot of potential to jump. Even a spike to $2 would be a 100% return on your investment!

Splendid Reclamation

Buy later

This card is going to see about zero Standard play, which means its $4-$5 value is entirely based on optimistic Legacy and Modern speculation. That's bad for a rare from a set that is going to see a lot of openings, which is why I wouldn't touch this right now. That said, this is the kind of card which will invariably create some kind of strong (or broken) synergy down the road. This makes Reclamation a solid pickup when it gets to the $2-$3 range.

Ulvenwald Observer

Stay away

For 4GG, I expect Primeval Titan. If you have multiple creatures with 4+ toughness to benefit from Observer, you should be winning anyway.

Multicolored

Bloodhall Priest

Gamble

In the event we see a viable red-based madness deck emerge in Modern, Priest will be center-stage in the strategy. I would have rated this an unplayable "Stay away" a week ago, but once I saw Noose Constrictor in the mix, hellbent became a much more realistic proposition. Priest is only $1-$2 right now, which is a small price to pay for a potentially swingy rare.

Gisa and Geralf

Stay away

Four-mana 4/4s aren't a bad rate, but the squabbling siblings don't do enough once they hit play. An unconditional Zombie cast would have been interesting, but once-per-turn is just not a great payoff.

Grim Flayer

Buy later

As we talked about earlier, delirium is much harder to achieve in Modern than many assumed. Tarfire, Mishra's Bauble, and others only go so far. Thankfully for Flayer, Mongrel 2.0 goes a long way to turning on the Tarmogoyf-lite, and the three-card selectivity is huge if you're looking for specific pieces. I believe this card is going to see Modern play, but buying at $10+ is a recipe for financial loss. Wait for the dip then move in.

Heron's Grace Champion

Stay away

Collected Company can't flip this and Aether Vial at four is too slow for Modern. Those two synergies could have made the card, but its current text doesn't cut it. Flashing this in against an aggro deck is still powerful, but he really needed the added Company boost to make the Human team.

Spell Queller

Buy now

I'm really bullish on Quellers because they promise to see Standard play alongside Collected Company and are likely to make it in Modern. This is a big tempo play alongside Delver of Secrets, and it gets bonus points for taking care of Abrupt Decay. You can also pitch this to Disrupting Shoal, which further helps the blue-based tempo lineup in Modern. The chances of this dropping to $5-$6 feel much lower than the chances of it going up to $10 or staying in the $8 range, so buying now seems like the right move.

Tamiyo, Field Researcher

Stay away

Only one Bant deck has ever made it in Modern, and that's Bant Eldrazi. Bant Eldrazi doesn't want Tamiyo, which means we're back to running her in the same, tired, ineffective Bant shell we've seen fail for years. Nahiri was a great example of what a new Standard planeswalker needs to make the Modern roster, and Tamiyo is no Nahiri.

Ulrich of the Krallenhorde

Stay away

Slow and clunky red-green mythics have no home in Modern, especially without a trigger like the superior Huntmaster of the Fells, which you'd play over Ulrich any day of the week.

Colorless

Decimator of the Provinces

Stay away

When I'm analyzing any of the Eldrazi, I'm thinking of how they play with a combination of Eldrazi Temple and Matter Reshaper, in R/G Eldrazi, B/W Eldrazi, or Bant Eldrazi. That's bad news for Decimator, an expensive clunker that requires way too much colored mana. Even with Reshaper and Temple contributing five mana, you'd still need another four mana, three of which would have to be green. That's too restrictive even as a curve-topper; Reality Smasher already does a great job closing games.

Distended Mindbender

Buy now

Just $2 for a card that basically ends the game if you're on B/W Eldrazi? Call me interested! Turn two Reshaper into turn three Mindbender is a huge beating on the play, especially on a massive 5/5 body. Control decks can't even counter the discard, unlike the trigger on the almighty Thought-Knot Seer. That's a knockout against grindy decks and a win for the $1-$2 Eldrazi.

Elder Deep-Fiend

Buy later

Great card, questionable price-tag. $4-$5 is a bit high for a creature that probably won't make it in Standard and is only a niche rare in Modern. That said, getting Time Walked by this is disgusting, especially off a Matter Reshaper. You also can't even counter the Time Walk!

Emrakul, the Promised End

Buy later

This is not a $25 card. Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger couldn't hold a $15 price-tag and Emrakul is no better than that. Indeed, Emrakul is probably a tiny bit more niche than Ulamog, which all but assured her falling to a lower value. You're going to want Emrakul for your R/G Tron arsenal, but not at this current price.

Eternal Scourge

Gamble

Does Modern want an unkillable 3/3? I'm not sure, but if it costs a virtual two mana off Eldrazi Temple, I'm more hopeful than not. Sweepers are bad news for Scourge, but spot removal is much more common in Modern anyway and can't keep this Eldrazi down. At $1-$2, consider me an optimistic buyer.

Artifacts and Lands

Lupine Prototype

Gamble

The monstrous two-drop might make it in Affinity, but I've played against Affinity enough times to know its hand doesn't empty that quickly. Even so, this enormous body and tiny cost feel undervalued at $1-$2, which is why I'd be more aggressive with picking these up. As an added bonus, this makes Affinity's mulligans a bit better, which encourages you to dig for more action-packed hands.

Soul Separator

Stay away

Prohibitive mana costs make Separator unplayable, even if it presents some exciting options in the abstract.

Stitcher's Graft

Stay away

Vanilla pump equipment are never going to get the job done in Modern, even with Graft's relatively aggressive costs.

Geier Reach Sanitarium

Stay away

In some cases, this is a better Mikokoro, Center of the Sea because it confers no advantage on a hellbent opponent. In many cases, however, it will play out exactly like Mikokoro, or worse if your opponent can abuse binned cards with Snapcaster, Kolaghan's, or something else. Count me out.

Hanweir Battlements

Buy later

Fun fact: Battlements is the cheapest land-based mechanism to give a creature haste in Modern. Slayers' Stronghold does it for an additional mana, but we all know that one and two mana are worlds apart in Modern, especially when you have to tap a land to get the ability. As printed, Battlements effectively costs two-mana (you need to tap the land itself), but I can see certain decks wanting the extra aggression to close out a match. As the price invariably falls, it becomes a better buy.

Phew! That was a long one, even by the standards of my usual word counts. Hopefully it proves useful as you figure out where in Eldritch Moon to put your money, and I look forward to seeing how Moon unfolds in Modern once it hits tournament tables at the end of July. I'll certainly be testing a number of these cards, particularly Queller, Evolution, and a number of the emerge Eldrazi, to see if they have what it takes in our powerful format.

Thanks for reading and let me know in the comments if you have any questions about other cards or those listed today. I'll also be on vacation for the next few weeks, so you'll have to wait for your Monday dose of Modern finance until August 8. Until then, enjoy Eldritch Moon, enjoy Modern, and keep on enjoying this diverse and exciting format we've gotten in the wake of the April banlist changes.

Insider: MTGO Cards to Buy, Sell or Hold

Posted on July 8, 2016January 17, 2022 by Nicolas Daniel Cancellara

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Hello, MTGO investors!

I am Nicolas Cancellara and this is my first article for Quiet Speculation. I am 28 years old from Argentina with more than 10 years of experience in the Magic Online trading market.

In my early days of MTGO I used the trading feature to earn enough tix to play the game, and I have been dealing ever since, until it become my main source of income. I own 500+ accounts on Magic Online and I use a sort of human-bot dealing chain. I also have a little experience with online forex trading, which complements MTGO finance very well. Right now I am participating in the Battle of Tix, an MTGO finance competition being hosted by Cardhoarder, which I recommend taking a look at if you haven't already.

I will be writing a series of weekly articles where I analyze a pool of cards and rate them buy, sell or hold. Remember that there is no 100% guarantee in any financial market, and the MTGO world is no different---that is why it's called speculation.

I will give my personal opinion for each card based on my experience and vision. It will be a helpful guide if you are starting to invest but you shouldn't blind-mimic my actions. You must understand what you are doing and why because it will allow you to make correct decisions when the scenario changes abruptly, which is quite often in the MTGO market.

Let's get started!

Ancestral Vision

Even though this card has been unbanned in Modern, the real price modifier these days is the Legacy format. Legacy leagues start this Wednesday and the card has already spiked, too much and too quickly in my opinion.

Sure, it could go even higher with the increasing demand of Legacy events. But we have no price history and this is the first time we see this card reacting to demand. We could also see a price adjustment due to the fast spike and a subsequent drop in price. Holding is not a terrible decision, but the lack of historical information makes it not worth the risk.

Verdict: Sell

Collected Company

This card's most glorious days have passed. Make no mistake, Collected Company is still as powerful as its first day but leaving the Standard format soon will crash its price. Even if it's still heavily played after the release of Eldritch Moon, the resistance line will be very strong.

Verdict: Sell

Wasteland

If you decide to invest in this card I recommend the Eternal Masters edition because it's the cheapest one and the supply ends this Wednesday. Investing in eternal-only formats is risky on MTGO and it rarely pays off, but the hype surrounding the format these days is real.

I wouldn't buy the card because I don't know how much the price will rise---a moderate gain might not cover the cost of the spread. On the other hand, the price shouldn't go any lower; even if you don't find a good price to sell it soon, it can go up with time.

Verdict: Hold

Shambling Vent

Staples lands are one of the most solid bets. Shambling Vent has been bouncing between 2 and 3 tix and the supply from drafting has ceased. Also a new Standard is around the corner which will increase demand. Easy call here.

Verdict: Buy

Mystic Gate

Shadowmoor flashback drafts ended just a few days ago, and as with every flashback draft they crashed all the prices in the set. As we can see in the image above, we missed the 3 tix bottom, but 4 a piece is still good to make a profit. The only problem I see with this card is that it doesn't see much play in Modern right now, so it could be a long-term investment.

Verdict: Buy

That's all for this week, folks. I would love to hear your feedback about this series and which cards you want me to write about in subsequent articles. You can reply in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Magic4everMTGO.

Wish you a great week, and thanks for reading!