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Brewing with SOI- Zombie Aristocrats

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Christian Calcano's Dimir Aristocrats deck never took off in a big way, which was likely due to the poor comparison between it and the Rally the Ancestors decks. With Rally rotating out, many of the cogs in Calcano's deck are leaving as well, though the most impressive synergies maintain intact.

Given the right support, I have to imagine that a shell featuring these four cards will have some real explosive potential in Standard. Seeing as Nantuko Husk happens to be a zombie, it might be worthwhile to explore the zombie tribe as the supporting cast. Diregraf Colossus definitely has the potential to generate a lot of value in the right deck, and playing Liliana makes Prized Amalgam a strong consideration. I like something like this as a starting point:

Zombie Aristocrats

Creatures

4 Zulaport Cutthroat
4 Whirler Rogue
4 Nantuko Husk
3 Sidisi's Faithful
4 Diregraf Colossus
4 Prized Amalgam
4 Relentless Dead
4 Shambling Ghoul
4 Liliana, Heretical Healer

Spells

2 From Under the Floorboards

Lands

4 Evolving Wilds
4 Sunken Hollow
4 Choked Estuary
7 Swamp
4 Island

Playing Shambling Ghoul over Hangarback Walker could just be wrong, though you just need zombies to make Relentless Dead and Diregraf Colossus matter. With the deck configured this way you hinge very heavily on synergy, with From Under the Floorboards really being your only card that comes at a great rate on its own. Of course, the real dream is to madness a big From Under the Floorboards with Liliana.

The zombie shell warrants testing, though if it ends up playing out in a clunky manner then subbing in Hangarback Walker and Jace Vryn's Prodigy is another direction to take this deck. That build would have a more consistent power level, though the assumption is that this build is more powerful when it's firing on all cylinders.

Insider: Developing and Investing Around Modern Delirium

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If you're reading this after 10:00 am, Central Time, you'll be too busy rejoicing about the death of Eldrazi to think about the powerful delirium options from Shadows. If you're reading it before then, you'll be too distracted by the upcoming announcement to imagine a Modern world without Eldrazi. I know I've had a countdown on my desk since the Grand Prix weekend.

Just to get it out of the way, and for those readers who check in before the official announcement goes live, I'm predicting either an Eye of Ugin ban or a dual Eye and Eldrazi Temple ban, with the former scenario being slightly more likely. Rest in pieces, Eldrazi as we knew it. You will not be missed.

Eldrazi's demise today, or at least their severe de-powering, returns Modern to some semblance of its pre-Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch state I reported on back in February on Modern Nexus. That's good news to some but disappointing to others---it's easy to get bored with the Modern Tier 1 canon.

For those who want something new in Modern beyond Infect, Affinity, Burn and Jund (and perhaps an Eyeless R/G Tron), Shadows over Innistrad offers a new mechanic to get the creative energies churning: delirium.

Modern Gone Delirious

Shadows brings 27 delirium candidates to Modern, even if only a handful of those are likely to prove playable. At least one, the toolboxy Traverse the Ulvenwald, is looking to make waves in the format while others promise some sideboard and even tiered maindeck appearances.

Of course, delirium isn't quite as easily fulfilled as the text box of its inspiration, Tarmogoyf. Counting only your own graveyard, delirium forces you to jump through a few hoops to maximize the mechanic. Thankfully, Modern has all the tools you need to make those leaps and go delirious.

Today, we'll go over the fundamentals of the delirium shell in Modern, highlighting major playables and where you should invest your money ahead of Shadows' legalization.

Going Delirious over Traverse

I rarely pre-order cards because most pre-sale prices are simply too high. Players, pricers and pickers often underestimate how much a card will get opened, overestimate how impactful the cards will be, and overlook the history of past set releases. This is doubly true for non-rotating formats, where the bar to entry is high and the metagame is relatively solidified.

Shadows got me to break my rule, first with Thing in the Ice (a card undervalued when I bought it but absurdly overvalued now), and then with Traverse the Ulvenwald. I don't think Traverse is the next coming of Green Sun's Zenith, but I do see it as a potent Tier 2 contender in the post-Eldrazi Modern.

traversetheulvenwald

Evaluating Traverse comes down to three questions:

1. Is Lay of the Land good in Modern?

Nope. Traverse's non-delirious mode is bad, and also no Zenith into Dryad Arbor. It's a consolation prize en route to the big payoff, but you're not playing Traverse for its pre-delirium effect.

That said, it's worth noting that Traverse decks will likely run lower land counts to maximize delirium enablers, which makes the early mana fixing marginally better than Lay of the Land in a vacuum.

2. Is a one-mana, sorcery-speed Eladamri's Call/Sylvan Scrying hybrid good in Modern?

Yes, yes, yes. Please, sir, may I have another? Once Traverse goes delirious, it becomes one of the best tutors in Magic, let alone in Modern.

Let's start with the Scrying mode, which is fine but not spectacular. Most decks playing Traverse won't have a lot of land bullets, although you might see this grab the occasional Kessig Wolf Run to close a stall. Ghost Quarter and Tectonic Edge are also options, especially against Affinity, Infect, Tron, and a manland midrange grindfest. If Eldrazi Temple survives, busting up Temple/Vesuva will be relevant as well.

Traversing the Modern Landscape

The creature mode, on the other hand, is absolutely nuts. It's a straight Green Sun's Zenith that doesn't need to fetch green creatures. Zenith put a creature into play for one mana plus X, where X was their casting cost. Traverse puts it into your hand for one mana, where you can then cast it for their casting cost.

That is to say, it's the exact same thing (minus the Arbor application and the reshuffle), except any creature is at your fingertips.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Green Sun's Zenith

Magus of the Moon when you need the Blood Moon shutdown? Done. Snapcaster Mage to re-buy a Bolt or counterspell? Done and done: once for the Snapcaster and once for the second Snapcaster you fetch by rebuying the initial Traverse for value. Spellskite for defense or anti-Infect and Bogles interaction? Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker as part of some Temur Twin revival?

Traverse enables it all. And that doesn't even mention all the juicy green targets, especially your 5/6 or bigger Tarmogoyfs.

Traversing the Modern Toolbox

As a preview of the next section, I've focused on Temur-colored creatures because these fit the delirium-enabling shell. You can definitely try other color options, but you'll get the most mileage from Temur. Why? Because although Traverse's delirium mode is clearly Modern material, its power is predicated entirely on the third evaluation question...

3. How easy is it to achieve delirium in Modern?

That's the million dollar question. Or rather, the $3.99 question if you're pre-ordering Traverse, and the $10-$15 question if you're thinking about the card's short-term ceiling.

Non-delirium Traverse is clearly unplayable. Delirium Traverse would have been broken if printed on a card without a requirement. This means the most important, and also least certain, question is about delirium as a condition, not Traverse as a card.

Thankfully, as this article's feature art suggested, Modern has ample tools to get delirium online and, just as importantly, synergize with Traverse in a competitive shell.

Achieving Delirium: Temur Style

Sorry, Sultai, Abzan and Jund mages. Although your colors can attain delirium with some of the effects in this section, Temur is often going to be the best of the bunch. This is due to a unique combination of enablers like Thought Scour and graveyard synergies such as Snapcaster Mage. Other pairings can pick up some of the tech in this section, but Temur is going to be the best at pushing it.

Before we talk about delirium activators, we need to do a quick, high-level review of what does and does not fulfill delirium.

  • Common card types: sorcery, instant, land, and creature
    Most delirium decks are going to have no trouble getting a sorcery, instant, and land in the graveyard. Creature too, but only to a lesser extent---you'll have a little less control over binning a creature than the other three types. Of these, lands are the easiest (fetches), followed by instant (Bolt, Scour, countermagic), and sorcery (Serum Visions, excess Traverses, etc.). You'll get creatures in the yard as they die, but you probably won't be playing too many sacrificial lambs whose purpose is to fuel delirium.
  • Uncommon card types: artifact, enchantment, planeswalker, and tribal
    Looking beyond the big four, Modern offers four other card types to satisfy your delirious needs. Tribal, particularly Tarfire, is easily the best of the lot, fulfilling not just one but two types in one card (the powerful Tarfire is both "tribal" and "instant"). After that, artifacts are the next easiest to include with a variety of powerful effects that involve sacrifice, followed by planeswalkers and enchantments.

The Tribal Renaissance

  • Supertypes don't count
    Legendary, snow and arcane don't help us get delirium any faster. That's probably a good thing because Disrupting Shoal would be really unfair in Tempo Delirium otherwise.
  • Don't play bad cards
    Final word of caution before we get to delirium specifics: don't play bad cards just to enable the mechanic. Delirium, like delve before it, is at its best when you're just being rewarded for playing a game of Magic. Tarfire is a highly relevant removal spell that kills dorks, trumps most of Affinity, Infect and Burn, and gives you extra late-game reach. Crib Swap? If you're paying three mana to kill a creature, you're not removing the creature---the creature is removing your spell.

To some extent, we can challenge the "don't play bad cards" paradigm by arguing for newfound relevance in the context of delirium. For instance, Seal of Fire was on the wrong side of the "borderline" tracks before, even with its Tarmogoyf synergy. Delirium gives it a nice push over the line.

With this framework in mind, let's delve into Modern's best Temur delirium enablers.

Blue - Cantripping, Digging & Discarding

Serum Visions is no Preordain, but it's still one of the best cards in Modern and arguably the most consistently strong turn one play outside of "Noble Hierarch/Birds of Paradise, go."

From a delirium perspective, Visions gets a sorcery into the graveyard and sets up two more draws to help fill any unmet card types before you fire the turn two or three Traverse. All of these factors make Visions a natural cornerstone in any delirium deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serum Visions

Speaking of cantrips, we're playing a blue-based graveyard deck, so we're also playing Thought Scour. Scour isn't often better than Visions, but when it is it's by a lot and Temur Delirium decks are poised to maximize this cantrip.

We already know the deck has unorthodox card types on top of the more basic ones. This means Scour's floor is putting at least two types into the yard (instant automatically and then maybe a creature, land, or sorcery). Its ceiling is immediate delirium activation as early as turn two.

Add Scour's natural synergy with Tarmogoyf and Snapcaster Mage, two other cards we're already probably running, and we got us a one-drop winner.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought Scour

There are plenty of other blue enablers and synergies we could discuss, but Standard coverage is at its springtime peak and all I can think about is Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. Jace isn't quite the powerhouse in Modern as in Standard, but he's seen play and is bound to see more as delirium decks carve out a niche.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Like Snapcaster Mage, Jace rewards you for filling the graveyard, buying back effects as the game draws on. Unlike Mage, Jace goes to work fulfilling delirium a turn after he hits the battlefield, discarding unused card types to efficiently enable delirium. Jace looting has the added bonus of further growing your Tarmogoyfs and giving even more mileage to Snapcasters.

From a financial perspective, the big winners here are foil copies of Scour and Jace himself, which feels like he can't get much more expensive but will keep rising if Modern picks him up in earnest.

Right now, he's sustaining his price tag based primarily off Standard demand, with some residual Modern price memory thrown in. If Temur Delirium decks hit Tier 2 and Jace is part of them, he'll only go up. And you thought the Year of Jace was just a Standard phenomenon!

Red - Fired Up

We're playing a red deck that isn't Affinity or Tron, so we're automatically playing the Lightning Bolt playset.

Don't negotiate those slots---post-Eldrazi Modern is going to be infested with Affinity, Infect, Burn and Zoo variants, Merfolk, and other random aggressive decks. Nothing busts up early aggression quite like Bolt. You'll even have Abzan Company dorks to zap, with the Company players coming off a post-Eldrazi high.

Bolt adds an instant to the card type bucket, but red can do better than that with the Bolt-lite, card type-heavy, Tarfire. Don't let the strictly better Shock fool you---this card is much more playable than its paltry damage stats would have us believe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarfire

Remember all those aggressive decks I listed above? For most of them, with bigger Zoo variants being a notable exception, there's no difference between a turn one Shock or Bolt. Both kill all the Goblin Guides, Blighted Agents, Signal Pests, and Master of the Pearl Tridents in the world.

Sure, you'll hit Monastery Swiftspears and Wild Nacatls that are either out of Tarfire range or threaten it, but for the most part, the two burn spells are interchangeable in the aggressive matchup.

Thinking about delirium, Tarfire contributes two types with one card, making it an excellent early play and an even better mill off Thought Scour. It's also a quick and dirty way to grow Tarmogoyf to 5/6, and was already a trick Jund decks were running as a singleton.

On the topic of old Jund tricks getting new relevance, here's a Nemesis throwback ready to return to the tournament spotlight.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seal of Fire

Both Tarfire and Seal of Fire bite for two damage, but the similarities mostly end there. Seal is sorcery-speed to cast, but gives you better mana efficiency in subsequent turns. As a tradeoff (which isn't always a tradeoff!) your opponent will know it's coming. Seal also can't get flashed back with Snapcaster Mage, but it also contributes "enchantment" to your card type roster. Early delirium and a 6/7 Tarmogoyf, anyone?

I expect to see the Tarfire and Seal of Fire package in any red-based delirium deck, especially Temur. You probably won't see more than 3-4 cards total between the pair (heavier on Tarfire). Financially, these cards had enough reprints that you are unlikely to make too much investing in the red side of the shell.

Final note on red: Faithless Looting gets a lot better in a post-delirium world.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Faithless Looting

If you're in Temur you probably don't need Looting on top of Visions and Scour. But if you're in Jund, Naya, or some other zany red-based delirium combo, Looting is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Green - Oath of the Tarmogoyf

With Traverse the Ulvenwald we're already stuck in green. Might as well make the most of it by playing the number one Modern beatstick and poster-child who grows to monstrous new stats in his new delirium shell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Sorry, budget-minded players. Tarmogoyf is only going to get pricier as delirium keeps being a big Modern player. The inevitable Eternal Masters reprint will help rein in the creature's price-tag, but this will likely be counterbalanced by more players joining Modern and Legacy, and picking up Tarmogoyf decks.

If you're playing Traverse you're also going to play Tarmogoyf. Don't try and tech your way out of it---a Traverse deck is all but guaranteed to see 5/6 Tarmogoyf s and could grow them to 6/7 or even 7/8 territory as early as turn three. Besides, Traverse tutors for your Tarmogoyfs and ensures you have the monsters on the battlefield whenever you need to get the clock going.

Tarmogoyf isn't exactly a card you can still speculate on, but a much-hyped green enchantment presents riper pickings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

Dubbed "the green Ponder" by many, Oath of Nissa never materialized in Modern over the past months, although that undoubtedly had something to do with an unstable, post-Splinter Twin metagame and the Eldrazi hegemony. With delirium here to stay, Oath gets substantially better, both as a way to dig for your creatures and lands and as yet another enchantment to fuel the Shadows mechanic.

The legendary supertype doesn't help delirium directly, but makes a big contribution indirectly by allowing future Oaths to kill off early ones. This gives Oath a natural way to get in the graveyard, on top of synergies with Scour and Jace. Those 6/7 Tarmogoyfs are looking more plausible by the minute.

Oath of Nissa's stock is heavily dependent on the metagame. An aggressive metagame is going to favor more Seal of Fires in the enchantment slot. Grindier metagames will see a return to the card selection of Oath, which is not a great drop on turns 1-3 against decks like Affinity but is substantially better in the Jund, Abzan, and Grixis slog. This suggests Oath will start getting better in the Stage 1 or Stage 2 Modern metagame after the initial post-Eldrazi linear storm.

Artifacts - A Delirious Sacrifice

Whether you're in Temur or trying other colors, artifacts give you plenty of potential to add yet another card type to your graveyard. 8/9 Tarmogoyf, here we come!! If you're in a tempo deck, by far the most interesting card with by far the highest financial payoff is the Coldsnap uncommon made famous by delve in 2015.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mishra's Bauble

This card already jumped from sub-$2.00 levels in early 2015 to the $10-$12 range in just a year, and delirium promises to make Mishra's Bauble even better.

If you're a deck builder, just remember not to include too many do-nothing effects in your delirium deck. Setting up delirium is great as long as you also aren't dying to an Affinity swarm on turn three. If you're an investor, look for any sign of a breakout delirium deck with Bauble. The ceiling on this is well over $10-$12 if the deck catches on.

Outside of Bauble, you'll want to look at any artifacts you can sacrifice for an effect. This ensure you can both voluntarily get the cards into the yard, or pitch them off Scour, Jace, or Looting. You don't want to play bad cards in trying to jam artifacts into your deck, but Modern has plenty of useful, playable effects to slip into unoccupied slots.

Artifacts for the Delirious

I'm partial towards Engineered Explosives, which has been sideboard material in various Modern decks for ages and is more maindeckable than ever with delirium. You can also use cards like Pithing Needle and Phyrexian Revoker in these slots. They are generally useful, can hit the yard off your discards/mills, and, in the case of Revoker, might die naturally anyway.

Delirious Excitement for Post-Shadows Modern

I spent most of today extolling Temur and Traverse the Ulvenwald, but these cards are not the only delirium winners in Shadows. Moldgraf Scavenger, aka baby Tarmogoyf, is still a 3/4 for two mana: nothing to sneeze at and a possible "Tarmogoyf numbers 5 and 6" in the right shell.

To the Slaughter is great in the Jund mirror, or in black delirium decks looking to trump Jund players, but be careful of using it against Abzan's Lingering Souls.

totheslaughter

Thinking a little deeper, I actually really like Autumnal Gloom on paper. A 4/4 hexproof is extremely hard to kill in Modern, and trample prevents the elemental from getting chumped all game long. Topplegeist has a relevant effect with immediate impact, but is currently homeless. Hatebears and Death & Taxes decks that want the spirit are also bad delirium enablers.

Even if other delirium cards don't pan out, I'm still jazzed for Traverse the Ulvenwald and you can bet I'll be trying it out in various shells. This includes Temur Tempo, Temur Midrange, Temur Kiki-Jiki, and even my eight-Forest Goblin Charbelcher deck, now with more Oaths than ever before!

Until next time, enjoy the post-Eldrazi world and let me know in the comments if you have any questions about delirium, the delirium enablers, the April 4 banlist changes, and the metagame going forward. Get excited, deliriously so, for the new Modern!

Insider: Infographic – Expected Value of an SOI Box

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On our weekly infographic we decided to offer our QS readers a new tool to help them better evaluate their financial choices.

Every time a new set is released most of us ask ourselves whether buying one (or more) boxes is worth the price. Aside from the pleasure of the smell of new packs or the entertainment granted by a draft with friends, today we try to analyze the expected value in a box of Shadows over Innistrad opened on release weekend.

Feel free to comment with suggestions or ideas; we want to give you the best tools possible to enjoy Magic and profit off it!

QS_201603 D SOI box EV_01

QS_201603 D SOI box EV_02

 

Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Mar 27th to Apr 2nd

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Welcome back for another week of High Stakes MTGO!

Quite a few buys and sales this past week, with the notable sale of all of my Legendary Cube Prize Pack (PZ1) prize singles. The MTGO release of Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) is imminent and with it a lot of changes in both Standard and Modern should occur.

Particularly for Standard I intend to perform much better this time around than I did during the previous Standard rotation. After the Pro Tour (PT) results I was inclined to wait for additional profits for a lot of positions, selling only very few positions in the pre- and mid-Pro Tour hype.

I think a better play is to sell the vast majority of your positions that have gone up, even if by a little bit. Here are few words about my observations and reasoning.

The excitement of Standard rotation and the Pro Tour hype lift up prices much more than they actually should and on too many cards. Once the new Standard metagame version 1.0 emerges after the PT, only a handful of cards will sustain the hype or gain more value in the following weeks.

The price fall, which can be quick or spread over few months, is on the other hand much more common. I have lost countless tix and time waiting and waiting again for a card to either finally gain some value or recover from a Pro Tour height. Those losses are not outweighed by my few successes.

So if you want my strategy in Standard for the weeks to come---selling as much as possible of everything that sees gains of roughly 80% and up. I don’t have concrete data to back this up but it seems that selling everything positive rather quickly is likely to be more profitable, on average, than selling the exact same positions after several more weeks (whether or not some of them get better).

What is certain, however, is that getting out early, as opposed to waiting three or four months, is an enormous opportunity benefit. I’m rather enjoying my "rapid turnover + moderate profits" method lately.

Let’s check back in a few weeks if I’m able to finally follow my own words of wisdom. In the meantime, here is what happened this past week. The link to the live spreadsheet transactions is here.

Buys This Week

BFZ lands

Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) rare lands are still great speculative targets. I bought 55 copies of Canopy Vista and reinforced the positions I already had.

They are not as cheap as they were a month ago. But even at about 2 tix a piece they have the potential to double, even with the loss of Khans of Tarkir (KTK) fetchlands. If they keep dipping I might buy more playsets. Lands are always a good place to invest.

TBD

This dragon fell below 3.5 tix this past week. I was not fully stocked from my first buying wave so it was a good opportunity to complete my stock.

EB

As a bulk spec this Eldrazi has enough potential for me. I might even buy more copies as quantity makes all the difference for bulk specs. My target is to grab somewhere around 200 copies total.

BFZ2

With a little bit over 3000 tix invested in BFZ sets I’ll now wait and see what happens in the next two months. My goal with full set specs is +30% to +40%. I hope to see a big increase in BFZ prices right after Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad. If the raise is significant enough it might as well be the opportunity to sell both singles and full sets.

GGT

Since the dredge troll returned from the Modern ban list it has hit the 10 tix bar more than once already, most recently less than a month ago. Ravnica: City of Guilds flashback drafts pressured Golgari Grave-Troll to a sub 5 tix price about a week ago.

Unlike in Legacy and Vintage, Dredge decks are not as good in Modern but post competitive results here and there. With another round of bans in Modern and SOI adding cards for graveyard-based strategies, Golgari Grave-Troll could rebound quickly.

GG

After two periodic dips in February came another sharp dip for Goblin Guide to under 5 tix. I hadn't yet maxed out my position with this goblin, so this third dip was another opportunity to buy, hopefully before a comeback to the 8-10 tix price range after the next B&R list announcement.

KTK sets

Since early March the price of a KTK full set seems to have found a floor around 60 tix. Because of the fetchlands this set is retaining a higher value than previous large sets in the paper world and consequently might not go as low as other sets on MTGO.

I bought a few playsets circa 62 tix and intend to buy more. Several of the cheapest mythics of that set aggressively rebounded four weeks ago, compensating for the rares still slowly drifting down and stabilizing the price of the set.

I expect an additional brief little dip right during SOI release events. I'll be buying more full sets and several singles during that period, whether this dip actually happens or not.

Sales This Week

This past week I completed the sale of all of my Legendary Cube Prize Pack singles. With an average profit of +52% for a total gain of 567 tix, these guys were incredible speculative targets. All of my 11 positions here yielded some profits---all winners, zero losers.

I'm glad I didn't push it too much by buying more copies, especially of the cheap ones. The spread on these cards was big and my selling prices decreased quickly between the first and last copy I sold for a given position. As I stated before, I'm selling now to avoid bad surprises with a potential return of PZ1 prize packs and to move on to new targets available at this time of the year.

This angel rode a nice upward trend between mid-January and now. Will this sustain after another change in the Modern metagame? Nothing less certain, and that's actually not even a question I need to answer. My position here has more than doubled and was therefore ready to be sold.

Baneslayer Angel illustrates what I like to do these days with Modern and Standard---take certain profits today rather than higher, uncertain ones tomorrow.

On My Radar

I'll be dedicating my time to several things in the following days. The first is to buy more BFZ and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) singles, as well as OGW full sets.

I've been mentioning this for several weeks now but this is the last opportunity to get them at their best price before a potential rise. Although the price of an OGW full set is still amazingly high for a small set, it will only be more expensive after the release of SOI.

A few cards from the current Standard sets that are not rotating out---Dragons of Tarkir, Magic Origins and Battle for Zendikar---have shown some increases lately, such as Archangel of Tithes. As I said in the intro I'll try hard not to sleep on positions showing decent gains in the short term. Particularly I'm looking to sell several Origins positions, including my big pile of painlands.

Finally, I intend to buy more KTK full sets and also some Fate Reforged ones. I will also try to cherry-pick a few singles such as the fetchlands, Anafenza, the Foremost, Monastery Mentor and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Infographic – Under- and Overrated OGW Cards

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Oath of the Gatewatch was released almost two months ago, and it's time to check your prior investments and evaluate new ones. Analyze the historical prices of the most hyped cards in the set through our new infographic visualization!

QS_model01

Introducing Max Banlist Modern!

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No Banned List Modern is the South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut of Magic. Playing No Banned List Modern today feels like sneaking Sharon Stone's Basic Instinct on Sunday-afternoon cable when you were five. Or watching the opening fight of UFC #1, where a shirtless Vladimir Putin in karate-pants kicks the Hawaiian singer of Somewhere Over the Rainbow so hard his tooth flies out. Rock on, 1993. It's fun to reminisce about those no-holds-barred glory days, but I'm older and wiser today than when my friends and I got busted for playing MS-DOS Doom in the basement when we told his parents we were playing Sim City. It's 2016 and now I know the importance of regulation. There are some things you just can't do: play Skullclamp and Hypergenesis in Modern, play Oddjob in GoldenEye, eat ten lemon Warheads, and give the Batsuit nipples. If we want Modern to thrive, we're gonna need structure. We're gonna need management. We're gonna need a bigger banlist.

If you agree this is not 'Nam, this is bowling Modern, if you agree there are rules, and if you've ever wanted anything banned in Modern, then MAX BANLIST MODERN is the format you've been waiting for!

Max-Banlist-Modern

Can't beat 'em? Ban 'em. All of them.

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What is Max Banlist Modern?

Max Banlist Modern is a community-driven, unsanctioned (so far...) format where anyone can add anything to the official banlist just by submitting an Official Max Banlist Modern Submission Form. That's right: anyone can select a card for bannning and any card can be banned. Not just R&D members. Not just a card in a 20%+ metagame deck. Anyone and anything, all for the sake of the format's competitive diversity.

Here's how the format works:

Ancient GrudgeOnce banned in Max Banlist Modern, a card can never become unbanned again. No second chances, take-backs, or do-overs. This isn't after-school 2nd grade Chess Club. This is bet-fifty-bucks-per-game chess on a park bench. Better be sure you really want that Storm Crow banned because once it's on, it's never coming off. Think of it like Donald Trump's grudge-list, except you're Donald Trump and all of 8th and 9th Editions are Fox News. Speaking of "grudge," how am I supposed to Goblin Charbelcher anyone with Ancient Grudge around? In the interest of competitive diversity, Ancient Grudge is banned.

...speaking of Charbelcher, how is that still legal? Banned too!

I'm sure some jokester has already added Island to the banlist before getting to this sentence, but remember: Max Banlist Modern has rules. Specifically, four rules.

  • Rule of LawRule #1: Basic lands can NEVER be banned (Plains, Island, Swamp, Mountain, and Forest).
  • Rule #2: Nothing can ever be unbanned. That's just not fair to those who wanted it banned in the first place.
  • Rule #3: In casual settings, the official banlist goes into effect at the beginning of every match. No, not every "game." Can't you ban maniacs calm down even once? You can't decide a card is totally, irredeemably broken once and for all after just a single game! That level of confidence takes at least 2-3.
  • Rule #4: In tournament settings, the official banlist goes into effect at the beginning of the tournament but not every game. People actually need to play the format. If we wanted people tearing up their decks because everything got banned, we'd just play regular Modern.

I'm all about community organizing and community-driven, grassroots Modern, so I'm open to changing the rules. Just don't waste your time arguing for or against a ban. Want something banned? Ban it. Want something unbanned? Tough. There's always regular Modern for... well, unless your name is Golgari Grave-Troll, maybe not. And Golgari Grave-Troll is basically Ancestral Vision because Wizards more or less told me so, so consider the dredger gone for good. How else is Golgari Brownscale going to see play? In the interest of competitive diversity, Golgari Grave-Troll is REbanned.

Why Max Banlist Modern?

I know, I know. There are some horrified optimists out there who think Modern needs fewer bans, not hundreds more. That includes the thrill-seeking No Banned List crowd, the guy hiding his foiled Jund deck in his backpack while arguing for Bloodbraid Elf's unbanning, and the #TeamMaritLage conspiracy theorist with a 90% market share of foil Vampire Hexmages. It even used to be me!

Mad ProphetWell, dear Nexus readers, I've participated in one too many Twitch chats since my idealistic days and I'm changing my tune. A man can only endure so many iterations of the MTG Salvation Banlist Discussion Thread before wondering if Leyline of Sanctity and Slippery Bogle really do need to be banned. Like I said earlier: games need rules. Magic is about casting spells, so why can my opponent play an untargetable creature? Why can they become untargetable themselves? Why are they winning when I'm not?? Talk about unfair design. Banned and banned.

Max Banlist Modern restores balance to the format and, more importantly, power to the people. If I wanted arbitrary and opaque decisions, I'd join the MPAA's rating board. Frozen is PG? For "emotional thematic elements"? Toy Story 3 was rated G and I know mothers who are still recovering from that last scene. Max Banlist Modern sets the expectation bar at the Marina Trench bottom, puts the ban power in the players' hands, and never looks back. Case in point: Frozen reminds me of ice. Ice reminds me of [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy]. Someone once suggested [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy] needs to be preemptively banned (THAT WAS A REAL SUGGESTION!) before Shadows releases, and we wouldn't want to take the risk. In the interest of competitive diversity, [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy] is emergency banned.

Max Banlist Modern FAQs

New formats spark a lot of questions, and I'm here to preemptively answer some of the most common. I'm happy to address more in the comments, unless it's about whether we can undo that Ancient Grudge ban (no: see Rule #2) or whether Dread Return can stay now that Troll is gone (no: I just banned it).

  • "This format seems incredibly unfun. Doesn't everything just get banned?"
    Don't be selfish. What's more important in the long-term? Appeasing all the ban maniacs to ensure the widespread cessation of banlist talk? Or playing the same broken deck every week?
  • "Max Banlist Modern feels very expensive if cards get banned every day."
    First of all, cards are banned by the second, not by the day. Second of all, if a card is too expensive for you to buy, just ban it. Then no one can play it: problem solved.
  • "Why is most of the current Modern banlist still legal in Max Banlist Modern?"
    Whoa there. This is a "power to the people" format. I don't want Wizards or I influencing the list before you all get your hands on it! Except that Ancient Grudge and those hexproof cards from earlier. Keeping those around was just too risky.
  • Eye of Ugin"Is Eldrazi Temple getting banned on Monday? Or Eye of Ugin?"
    In Max Banlist Modern, both got banned before you finished typing that sentence. In that other, more volatile Modern, it's probably going to be Eye of Ugin alone. I've banned it twice in Max Banlist Modern just for good luck.
  • "What happens when we've banned everything and we're just playing basics?"
    Well, you're definitely not playing Countryside Crusher too, because that creature can outclass even a Tarmogoyf and how is that fair? In the interest of competitive diversity, Countryside Crusher is banned. Tarmogoyf too, and I'm scared it took us this long to do it. As for Max Banlist Modern, once everything gets banned (over 9,650 more cards to go!) we can just go back to ban maniaing with boring Normal Banlist Modern. Or Standard. Minus Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, post-Shadows Standard shouldn't be much different power-wise from Max Banlist Modern.

I'm excited to see where Max Banlist Modern develops after today. I can already envision Grand Prix and Pro Tour streaming in its future: it's not as if the coverage team would have to change their rhetoric and banter much to fit the new Max Banlist format. Come find me in the comments with any rules changes you want to propose, particularly odious cards you've banned, or decks that you think will be absolutely, 100% ban-proof. I've got my money on Goblins. Is banning Exiled Boggart really going to advance the interest of competitive diversity? It's Max Banlist Modern, so I'll let you decide. Now, Wandering Goblins on the other hand...

IT! BEGINS!

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IT HAS BEGUN! It is, at last, coming to FRUITION! They laughed at me, said it was impossible, said I was wasting my, SAID IT WOULD DRIVE ME MAD! MAD! Do you remember, DO YOU REMEMBER IT, Morgenthau? Remember how they said that the Storm itself was perfect, that attempting to harness it and turn it towards another purpose was unnecessary, that it would be SOOOO much easier to just wield its awesome power for launching stones or summoning dragons. I say, NOT GOOD ENOUGH! The catalysts are in place, the mana vessels are fully charged, all is set. NOW, BARNABUS! THROW THE SWITCH!

Laboratory Maniac banner

Yes, yes, yes, YES!!! It's working. The mana generators are funneling the power I stripped from the surrounding lands into the experiment, powering the engine to STRIKE DOWN upon my foes with the power of my superior intellect! MUWAAHAHAHAH Ha ha ha ha... cackle manically with me Gregorias: it's a weird and rather lonely affair if I'm the only one participating.

THE EPIC EXPERIMENT!, by Professor Geoduck Reginald Ekorre von VerrĂĽcktehosen IV

CREATURES!

1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Goblin Electromancer

SORCERIES!

3 Epic Experiment
4 Serum Visions
4 See Beyond
3 Mana Seism
4 Tidings
1 Rise from the Tides
4 Master the Way

INSTANTS!

4 Peer Through Depths
4 Manamorphose

ENCHANTMENTS!

4 Vessel of Volatility

LANDS!

4 Island
4 Mountain
4 Steam Vents
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Izzet Boilerworks

Epic ExperimentIt's taken months of work, building the knowledge necessary to put this plan into action. I've consulted the very finest sources, sought out the most potent ingredients, hired the most skilled Goblin sorcerers to serve as catalysts, and found some reasonably not incompetent and dubious lab assistants to serve my purposes should everything go wrong.

Of COURSE I'm not referring to you, Andrew (of course I am referring to YOU, Lamond), my (somewhat) reliable apprentice. Oh, just stand over there in case something goes wrong.

Very soon, the experiment will spew forth its fury. Yes, I KNOW you know how it works, Percival, let me monologue! It's an integral part, OF THE PROCESS! The experiment works by channeling huge amounts of mana through the goblin catalysts in order to generate a cloud of pure knowledge which in turn pulls even more knowledge into my mind, fueling my vengeance. Rise from the TidesSoon, those who laughed at my genius will know their folly when I lash out at them with the magically manifested manifestation of my mastery of magic.

And even should they deflect the initial onslaught, my victory is certain when the refuse begins to spew forth AN ARMY OF UNDEAD, just as planned. My victory IS INEVITABLE!

impending disasterOh what is it now, Collingsworth. Yes, I know that for the effort we've expended on this would have been easier to just summon millions of goblins to eat them all. Yes, I know that the villagers are battering down the door to overwhelm us as we speak. Idiot. No, Horrace, I did not call you, an idiot. Idiot. That was never the point.

The point was to build a grand monument to my brilliance! They'll never defeat me, I will draw all the knowledge TO MYSELF! AND ASCEND! Victory is mine, WHAHAHA, AHAHA EhHE EHEHE HEHE ha. I could use a lozenge.

Avatar photo

David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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Insider: Shadows Over Innistrad’s Standard Top 10

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In the past my set reviews have focused largely on pre-order prices, though with more in-depth spoiler coverage on the free side that would just be redundant. You already have plenty of information about first impressions.

So today I'm going to discuss what I consider the standouts for Standard from Shadows over Innistrad, after gathering more information on the hypotheticals posed when cards are first spoiled. Now that I've had the time to absorb what the big names of the game are saying and do some brewing myself, I have a list of the cards that are poised to see the most Standard play in the coming weeks.

Honorable Mentions

Shadow Lands

fortifiedvillagegametrailforebodingruinschokedestuaryporttown

Out of the gates these lands are significant, but not dramatic. They will see play in Standard as upgrades from straight tapped lands, but until the battle lands rotate these are not particularly important. They will see play and be worth a few bucks, but it's hard to put them in the actual top ten.

goldnightcastigator

I want this card to be in the top 10, but there is a pretty big question mark here. As I mentioned in my piece on the free side, it's not clear whether this is a maindeck or sideboard card. The incentive to play this card is real, but so is the downside.

Right now my gut is telling me there will be decks with two of this card main and two sideboard, and indeed it is the one mythic that I am enticed to pre-order and gamble on, but just to be clear---this is a gamble.

risefromthetides

When I first saw this card, my thought was that I will be forcing an archetype around it in draft often. It's the new Spider Spawning! The more I think about it, the more that I find it likely that this card is Standard-playable.

The zombies coming into play tapped and being a sorcery isn't great, but a couple copies of this card in a deck low on creatures sounds excellent. This card has the potential to have an absurd power/toughness-to-casting-cost ratio spread across tons of bodies. I don't have a deck that I can endorse at this point, and that's why this one fell just outside of my top 10.

Now onto the real list!

10. Arlinn Kord

arlinnkord arlinnembracedbythemoon

Arlinn Kord is a very exciting card, and abstractly it seems odd that a card like this isn't lower on the list. Planeswalkers have a reputation for being one to threes, and this card is exciting!

That said, every account I've heard and read has reported Arlinn performing worse than anticipated. Part of the problem is the inability to just stream 2/2's, one of the strengths of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. If your opponent doesn't control creatures with three or fewer toughness, your second turn of controlling Arlinn won't be very exciting.

She is still a quite powerful card, and there will definitely be decks with Nissa, Voice of Zendikar alongside her, but the pre-order price is simply obscene for Arlinn. She should be coming down to the $10-20 range in no time. That said, she is definitely a well above-average spell, and is a card to pay attention to once her price drops.

9. Prized Amalgam

prizedamalgam

Deathmist Raptor and Liliana, Heretical Healer are two cards I expect to see play that pair well with Prized Amalgam, and Relentless Dead could fill this role as well. I spoke highly of the card on the free side, and I stand by it. I think it's an easy inclusion in a Sultai Collected Company deck, which could look something like this:

Sultai CoCo

Creatures

4 Den Protector
4 Stratus Dancer
4 Deathmist Raptor
4 Sylvan Advocate
4 Prized Amalgam
2 Elvish Visionary
1 Fleshbag Marauder
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
3 Liliana, Heretical Healer

Spells

4 Collected Company
1 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Evolving Wilds
4 Sunken Hollow
2 Island
2 Forest
2 Swamp
3 Llanowar Wastes
3 Hissing Quagmire
3 Yavimaya Coast
2 Lumbering Falls

This deck is exceptional at gumming up the ground, which can lead to you winning by overpowering your opponent or building up to a Jace or Liliana ultimate. A weakness here will be fliers, and I'm not certain that Archangel Avacyn is beatable.

That said, this is a shell worth exploring, and it's going to be hard to imagine a deck out-valuing this one, shy of Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet exiling the Raptors and Amalgams.

I haven't seen a zombie list yet that looked especially good, but if there is one I assume Prized Amalgam slots right in there as well. This is also the type of card that just gets better the more effects they print that can recur it, so this card could only get better with Eldritch Moon.

Prized Amalgams can still be had in the $2 range, and I think this is a reasonable position to gamble on. The card is bland as just a creature, but if Standard becomes about grinding value then Prized Amalgam decks could really thrive.

8. Thalia's Lieutenant

Thalia's Lieutenant

The human tribe is looking quite good in Innistrad, and Thalia's Lieutenant will be a flagship card of any Humans archetype. Champion of the Parish was a pretty strong Standard card, and while costing a mana more is arguably downside, offering an anthem effect is well worth that extra mana. The tragedy is that neither Gideon nor Secure the Wastes make humans.

That said, Tom Ross is super excited about Thraben Inspector, as evidenced by his Vs. Video piloting Mono-White Humans, and if one-mana 1/2's are exciting then you'd best believe Thalia's Lieutenant is even more so.

You can pre-order a set of Thalia's Lieutenant for about ten bucks, which I think is a very good price. I could see this being a format where the white deck is the best aggressive shell, with Thalia's Lieutenant leading the charge. People have definitely been disappointed with vampires thus far, so this is absolutely worth exploring. If this deck is good, then the price will easily double.

7. Insolent Neonate

Insolent Neonate

At first blush, this is mostly just a color-shifted Hapless Researcher. That card saw Legacy play 100 years ago, but it's nothing exciting. Then Patrick Chapin wrote an article featuring the card in several aggressive red decks.

Basically, it's a beater that will get a couple chip shots in, and then when you sacrifice it to discard a madness card, you actually just break even on cards and get a discount on casting the madness spell. Suddenly I was putting Insolent Neonate in all of my red brews. And then Sam Black wrote about the card. Sam pointed out that this is just another card that plays excellently with Liliana.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Heretical Healer

I've written about Liliana a couple times in the past few months, and she's starting to increase in value now. Liliana and Insolent Neonate are actually among the best madness enablers in Standard, and the fact that they also play well together---sacrificing the Neonate flips Liliana---is huge. Sam highlighted this interaction in aggressive madness decks, but if you get particularly crazy you can even start slotting these two, and Jace, into a deck intent on triggering delirium quickly.

I don't know if the best Neonate/Liliana shell will be discovered week one, but I know there is something there, and if you don't have your Lilianas I recommend getting them now. She's very close to the price she has held without seeing much Standard play, so she has nowhere to go but up.

6. From Under the Floorboards

fromunderthefloorboards

On the topic of madness, I think this is probably the best card with madness in Shadows. Not only does it just have a great rate for a black deck on five, but the upside provided by madness could be huge in a long game.

When you get up to seven lands and discard this card, say to your Liliana or Insolent Neonate, you get ten power worth of creatures in addition to gaining five life. That's superb potential upside on a card that's just fine to cast under normal conditions.

As I wrote on the free side, pre-orders on this one are a bit high, though I like trading for a set. This card has all the makings of a constructed staple.

5. Thing in the Ice

thingintheice 

When I initially reviewed this card, I referred to the pre-orders of $10 as crazy-town. Well, SCG is pre-ordering them for $20 now. Egg on my face, right!?

Well, not really. You can still find sets on eBay in that $10 range, and I'm still confident that the number decreases as packs are opened. There aren't fetches or Expeditions to drive sales of Shadows, though with Innistrad being such a revered block and the set looking so awesome I expect good sales. As such, I don't expect Thing to be more than a $5-8 rare in the near future.

Of course, the stupidly high pre-order price only distracts from the merits of the card. If Reflector Mage is seeing a lot of play, that will limit Thing's efficacy. That said, this card pays off in a big way when it works. You get a massive tempo swing and a huge creature. Todd Anderson is giving the card positive reviews, and he's not alone.

This one will definitely be showing up in Standard, though it's still unclear exactly how good it will be. Again, I'd wait on buying, though if you already have Jaces then this is one you will be likely to want to sleeve up with him. Of course, if you don't have Jaces you should probably just continue ignoring blue as a color.

4. To the Slaughter

totheslaughter

I might have this one ranked incorrectly, though there's a lot to be said for a removal spell that's good against aggressive and controlling decks alike. That was, after all, the big draw of Hero's Downfall. A removal-heavy deck that is good at enabling delirium will happily include 2-4 copies of this card. Having a lot of removal is, of course, the best way to get the most out of your edict, and will also enable you to kill a Gideon in response to him making a 2/2 even when delirium isn't enabled.

A clean answer to planeswalkers is always welcome, and this card also answers a very powerful card a little further down in this piece. I think that pre-ordering for $2-3 is about right, though if there is a heavily played deck playing four copies then expect this value to increase significantly.

The lists that I have come up with featuring To the Slaughter have only played two copies thus far, so I'm kind of cold on pre-ordering. Though I will say that this card plays a vital role in the decks that do feature it. This is the sort of card that will see more or less play depending on what kind of threats you need to answer, and I imagine it will stagnate or decrease in value before increasing.

3. Declaration in Stone

declarationinstone

I gave this card a glowing review initially, and given its place on the list, it's clear that I stand by this. If you're killing your opponent quickly, this is an extremely efficient removal spell with a very minimal drawback. With the hype around the Humans aggro decks, I'd say this easily finds a home there.

Currently you can pre-order this card in the $3 range, and that sounds solid to me. If this one sees a good amount of play it definitely can't go down from there, and has solid potential to increase in value. I like buying at least a set of these.

2. Westvale Abbey

westvaleabbey ormendahlprofaneprince

As a land the abilities here aren't very good. There is no shortage of colorless sources in Standard, and five mana and a life to make a 1/1 isn't an ability that I see being used super often. Making a 9/7 with haste though? Now we're talking. There's not much to say about the card that Ross Merriam didn't cover in his article on SCG this week, though he's not the only one writing about the card. Sam Black also featured the card in a couple decks and had good things to say about it.

Pre-orders on this card have apparently skyrocketed from $6 to $15+. I do think that the card will go in multiple decks and that it is very good, though I don't see this price as sustainable. Unless literally every deck starts incorporating it, which is hard to imagine for a card that requires sacrificing five creatures, expect this price to decrease.

1. Archangel Avacyn

archangelavacyn avacynthepurifier

As soon as this card was spoiled, it was clear that it was going to be a contender for the best card in the set. With the dust settled, I think it's clear that this is the card you can most indiscriminately throw into a deck to improve the power level. People are going to play Avacyn, and people are going to win with Avacyn.

I said in my initial review that $20 was a reasonable pre-order price, and I stand by that. With good week one results her price could easily be $40, and I don't see her floor being much lower than $15 unless everybody is wrong and she is somehow terrible. The odds of this are extremely low though.

~

Shadows over Innistrad looks to be every bit as exciting as one would hope from the return to Innistrad, and I personally can't wait. There are plenty of potentially impactful cards from the set, though these are the ones which, by what I've read and theorized, show the most potential.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

High Stakes MTGO – Mar 20th to Mar 26th

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Welcome back to High Stakes MTGO!

This past week marked for me the beginning of the buying and selling waves related to the incoming rotation of Standard.

The rotation of Standard is always a crucial time for MTGO speculators with the option buy a basket of singles, a few targeted positions, foils or full sets. With so many buying opportunities this is also a good time to review and maybe sell well-performing positions in order to reinvest in positions with a better growth potential.

The buying targets won’t only be from Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) but also from the sets rotating out of Standard---Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF). After prices have dropped significantly, full sets or singles from sets rotating out of Standard have proven to be a very safe investment with moderate returns in only a few months.

In my case the sales I focused on, and will keep focusing on, are singles from the Legendary Cube (PZ1) prize set along with a few Modern positions.

The vast majority of my PZ1 positions have recorded a gain of 40-100% over the past four months. I don’t think they can outperform BFZ or OGW cards in the coming months so I’m going to take my profits on one part of my portfolio and reinvest them in another part.

Here is the link to last snapshot of my portfolio.

Buys This Week

BFZ;ands

In my first round of BFZ singles, unsurprisingly, I’m betting on lands. Cycles of rare lands are the easiest and most consistent tix makers you can find. They most likely won’t see prices multiplied by 10 but many of them have good chances to see their price double or triple from what I paid for them.

Actually, you could say that their price has already doubled for some since a month or two ago. I’m certainly a little bit late to the party but I'd rather be late than not here at all. Prices surged a bit after the Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) rare lands were announced. They are now back down and I’m certainly going to try to go for another round and buy the lands I haven’t yet in BFZ as well as OGW.

I also intend to buy other singles, rares and mythics. For BFZ I think prices won’t get lower and can actually only go higher as new interactions or synergies are found with cards from SOI. OGW cards on the other hand may still have some room to lower their price. For a small set opened twice as much as any other small sets before, the price of a full set of OGW is still amazingly high.

HoBL

This is nothing else but a random bulk spec. Champions of Kamigawa flashback drafts are done and lowered the price of that legendary land to the ground. I think this card has a unique enough effect that it may deserve a spike sometimes in the future if conditions align. I can’t really lose anything here and the reward, although hypothetical, can be very high.

Sales This Week

PZ1 packs

The price of these unique boosters was getting really high compared to the price I paid to acquire them. It was time to let part of my stock go, which may have directly or indirectly caused the price of these boosters to drop from 3 tix to 2.6 tix last week.

Legendary Cube returns this week but the Legendary Cube Prize packs won't be awarded. I would then expect the PZ1 packs to resume their slow upward trend.

However this is a reminder that the PZ1 packs can return any time, which would certainly cause their price to decline more permanently and dramatically. I'm likely to sell the rest of stockpile very soon especially if buying prices return to the neighborhood of 2.7-2.8 tix.

Following a fluctuating upward trend initiated last December, Phantasmal Image crossed the 3 tix bar about a week ago. The spread on this card has always been large but this time around I had the opportunity to liquidate my copies at ~2.5 tix, a little bit higher than my target price, so no reason to skip this sale.

This is the illustration of what I was saying in the introduction of this article. I'm in the process of moving out most, if not all, of my PZ1 singles. All of them have shown positive results and I want to exit now in order to reinvest in buying opportunities linked to the incoming Standard rotation.

I don't think these guys can safely grow by 50% or more in the next three to six months, unlike the positions I'm about to buy. The Legendrary Cube singles or prize pack specs turned out to be extremely successful with, at this very moment, all positions yielding profits.

On My Radar

To elaborate on what I said in the introduction, my goal in the next two to three weeks is to buy more BFZ singles and OGW singles and full sets. Unless you have a lot of time to dedicate to MTGO investments, full sets should be your bread and butter. They provide solid and predictable returns on large quantities of tix.

I'm also planing on buying singles and full sets of KTK and FRF. The fetchlands alone are a guarantee of value for KTK and a few mythics such as Anafenza, the Foremost and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon could see nice gains in the coming months.

Saleswise, I will flip all of my PZ1 positions very soon and convert the tix generated this way into the positions mentioned above.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Shadows Set Review Pt. 2 and Post-Banning Theorycrafting

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We are in countdown mode. T-minus one week, and Shadows Over Innistrad releases upon us, bringing with it an Eldrazi banning and good tidings for all boys and girls. The combination of Eldrazi’s removal (good riddance) and the influx of (possible) new cards will undoubtedly shake up Modern for better or for worse, and my brain has been spinning trying to anticipate all the possible permutations the metagame might take.

Asylum-Visitor-Shadows-over-Innistrad-Art

Today, we’ll put a preliminary stamp on Shadows Over Innistrad; grading the set as an exercise in evaluative process. Primarily, though, we’ll be looking forward a week ahead, theorycrafting some ban decisions and anticipating what the format will look like with Eldrazi gone and Shadows here. Let’s get started!

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Shadows Over Innistrad Spoilers Part Two

Last week, we took a hard look at the first half of the spoiled set, analyzing for potential Modern sleepers and staples. I anticipated this week’s article to be exclusively Spoilers Pt. 2, but as often happens the back half of the New Set, spoilers were pretty lackluster for anyone not interested in Limited. This should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with Loam Dryadpreview season; Wizards often releases 80% or more of the flashy mythics/rares early, leaving the last week/two weeks of to contain almost exclusively commons/uncommons and Limited filler. Historically, Modern aficionados have been able to find gems in this muck; Rending Volley, Become Immense, etc. This time around, no such luck. Why?

Wizards has taken a few steps recently in set design that have inspired some negative repercussions for Modern. Gone are the days of Return to Ravnica's hyper-powerful, multicolor spells, replaced almost entirely with slow, underpowered, overcosted, single-color options. Instead of Essence Scatter, we get [tippy title="Deny Existence" width="330" height="330"]Deny Existence[/tippy]. Instead of Azorius Charm, we have [tippy title="Gone Missing" width="330" height="330"]Gone Missing[/tippy]. What this means for Modern is clear; it sucks! Pair this with their design philosophy that moves away from One CMC “Mana Elves” and we get [tippy title="Loam Dryad" width="330" height="330"]Loam Dryad[/tippy] where we once had Birds of Paradise.

Murderous CompulsionAs a relatively seasoned Magic player that has experienced such wonders as Jace, the Mind Sculptor in Standard, Snapcaster Mage flashing back Vapor Snag, and Thoughtseize removing Llanowar Elves, it’s hard to look upon these changing times with anything resembling positivity. I got to play with Abrupt Decay, and now they are giving me [tippy title="Murderous Compulsion" width="330" height="330"]Murderous Compulsion[/tippy]? A man can only take too much before his own [tippy title="Murderous Compulsion" width="330" height="330"]Murderous Compulsion[/tippy]s kick in.

This is all to say that the back half of Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers has absolutely nothing to offer. Keep walking, nothing to see here. This leaves us with the following set of cards that I anticipate “could” see play in Modern, and are therefore worth keeping an eye on.

Likely

  • [tippy title="Thalia's Lieutenant" width="330" height="330"]thaliaslieutenant[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Asylum Visitor" width="330" height="330"]Asylum Visitor[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]traversetheulvenwald[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Arlinn Kord" width="330" height="330"]1_arlinn[/tippy]

Possible

  • [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Olivia, Mobilized for War" width="330" height="330"]oliviamobilizedforwar[/tippy]

Niche

  • [tippy title="Declaration in Stone" width="330" height="330"]1_declaration[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Falkenrath Gorger" width="330" height="330"]falkenrathgorger[/tippy]
  • [tippy title="Nahiri, the Harbinger" width="330" height="330"]1_nahiri[/tippy]

To clarify, this is an inclusive list of all the cards in Shadows I think could possibly see play of any level in Modern. [tippy title="Falkenrath Gorger" width="330" height="330"]falkenrathgorger[/tippy] is not a good Magic card for Modern, but could show up in a Vampires deck so I’m including it here. The same with [tippy title="Nahiri, the Harbinger" width="330" height="330"]1_nahiri[/tippy]: I don’t expect her to see play, but she could pop up in some Mardu lists so I’m including her as well. Long-term (read: until the next set comes out) I would be surprised if more than two cards from the set Asylum Visitorsee sustained play, and downright shocked if any of the non-Likely options show up in more than one archetype.

My pick for best card in the set goes to [tippy title="Asylum Visitor" width="330" height="330"]Asylum Visitor[/tippy], as its synergy with Modern as a format and black as a color gives it the highest possibly of multi-archetype play. The strongest individual card is [tippy title="Thalia's Lieutenant" width="330" height="330"]thaliaslieutenant[/tippy], which could do for Humans what Master of the Pearl Trident did for Merfolk. As a whole, I’m grading the set a C, as the set is lacking in terms of both staple singles and role-playing sideboard cards. My biggest question marks are [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy] and Arlinn Kord, I could see that I’m underestimating them, and a month from now we could see either of these cards in more than one archetype. I feel confident in my opinion that they show promise, but ultimately fall a bit short of the standard for Modern.

Shadows Over Innistrad Grade: C

Looking Ahead

The rest of this article will begin to look ahead to what a possible Modern landscape would look like with Eldrazi out of the picture. The relative lack of influence from Shadows Over Innistrad will make this process easier, as I don’t anticipate [tippy title="Asylum Visitor" width="330" height="330"]Asylum Visitor[/tippy] to raise Black’s stock in Modern a significant amount to tip any scales. So, we’ll approach this in two parts; Modern with Eldrazi completely removed, and Modern will Eldrazi present, but nerfed. First, Context!

1 Eldrazi 34.9%
2 Affinity 8.9%
3 Abzan Company 5.8%
4 Burn 3.8%
5 Infect 3.8%
6 Living End 3.2%
7 UW Control 3%
8 Merfolk 2.9%
9 Jund 2.9%
10 RG Tron 2.1%

I highly suggest brushing up on the Grand Prix Weekend Wrap-Up before moving on, as most of our inferences will be based primarily on that data. Check out Sheridan's article detailing the post-banning, pre-Pro Tour metagame as well. Post banning, but before the Pro Tour, the metagame looked similar to the above chart (removing Eldrazi of course) in almost all areas, but with a few key differences. Tron performed much better than we see above, which points clearly to Eldrazi (or Eldrazi's effect on the metagame) being unfavorable for Tron. Picking up on key bits like this that can be easy to overlook is essential if we want to get a step ahead. Eldrazi has been top dog pretty much every week since the Pro Tour, with a couple clear challengers emerging over the following weekends to fight for Second-Best. Abzan Company and Living End experienced the best results (after Eldrazi) on GP Weekend, while Affinity took third and Burn/Infect were almost entirely absent.

We have to be careful to evaluate every piece of information with a grain of salt, it is essential to realize that the metagame we see now is based almost entirely on the effect Eldrazi has had on the landscape more so than individual archetype strengths/weaknesses. Archetypes that stand no chance against Eldrazi (control, Tron, Scapeshift) have largely disappeared in Eldrazi’s wake but will undoubtedbly return when Eldrazi is banned. Still, the best place to start is Level 0, the “best decks” left standing after Eldrazi is banned.

Abzan Company

collected companyCollected Company decks came in many flavors following its release, primarily Elves and Melira/Anafenza Combo. Elves experienced a gradual decline into obscurity as they could not race other aggressive decks consistently when its lords had been dealt with. Abzan Company, on the other hand, contained multiple life-gain elements to buy time to combo properly. While it can often experience awkward, disjointed hands, Abzan Company as an archetype interestingly contains a surprising amount of power for a deck that packs individually embarrassing cards like Melira, Sylvok Outcast and Viscera Seer. Abzan Company has enjoyed relatively modest success against Eldrazi, as its lifegain elements work to stunt Eldrazi’s unfair aggro and itss combo elements force Eldrazi to play Abzan’s game.

Living End

Benefiting from the lack of control in Modern, Living End has been able to turn-three/turn-four opponents with impunity. As Eldrazi players have begun to move away from Relic of Progenitus, we’ve begun to see Living End’s stock rise, and we can just as easily expect it to fall once players begin to consider the archetype in their sideboards. Living End has shown a weakness to dedicated hate, and I would expect that to continue in the future. Should Living End become a problem, I imagine it won’t remain top-tier for long.

Affinity

Stony SilenceWith Eldrazi banned, Affinity regains its title as Linear Aggressive King. Depending on who you ask, this can be positive or negative, but we’ve  seen Affinity occupy the same relative position in Modern for a while now, and we have enough evidence to show it can be a format powerhouse if nobody prepares for it. That said, the tools also exist to keep it from dominating (read: the way things should be!). I fully anticipate a return to top-tier for Affinity, but I highly doubt it will even come close to dominating in the same style as Eldrazi. Without Eldrazi to worry about, other archetypes can return to dedicating 3-4 sideboard slots to fight Affinity, and we’ll return to the relative comfort of getting squashed by Affinity Game 1 and then dominating post-board like usual.

Metagame odds and ends

Infect and Burn almost completely fell off the map at Grand Prix Weekend, but I anticipate a full return once Eldrazi is banned. Not only are both of these archetypes proven Modern powerhouses, they have both benefitted greatly from the reduced Lightning Bolts in the format. Depending on the market share post ban we could see a reduced number of viable archetypes compared to the Splinter Twin era, which could have a negative benefit on these archetypes. When Splinter Twin was legal it was common to see 15-20 viable archetypes on any given weekend, which made Twindevoting sideboard slots to fight specific archetypes difficult. When players can’t afford to play Leyline of Sanctity or Melira, Sylvok Outcast in their boards for fear of losing too much percentage in other matchups you begin to see archetypes like these overperform. With Eldrazi banned we can imagine a return to the Splinter Twin metagame but without Splinter Twin. Will this cause a “flood” of different archetypes to run wild, or will a few archetypes grab up all the market share into a new Rock/Paper/Scissors metagame? The answer to this question will influence archetypes like Burn and Infect which stand to benefit from a diverse “do what you want” metagame.

The other looming question mark is Tron’s place in the new metagame. Tron stood to benefit greatly from Twin’s banning, but it proved it couldn’t handle Eldrazi effectively. With Eldrazi gone soon (and Twin still gone), could Tron rise from the ashes to take a shot at the throne? It boasts a strong Abzan Company matchup, and can be tuned to fight Affinity and Burn as well. Infect is problematic, but again, depending on the market share, Tron could afford to devote multiple sideboard slots to fight that matchup. Tron’s insecure future is one of the most interesting questions I’ve been pondering as I anticipate an Eldrazi-less Modern.

Gone, but Not Forgotten

The other (less likely) April 4th scenario involves an Eldrazi nerf, but not total ban. Most likely this will involve the banning of Eldrazi Temple, and the Eldrazi shell remains, still powerful but not dominating. There's been a significant debate about which broken land will be banned, be it Eldrazi Temple or Eye of Ugin. Personally, if I were Wizards I would err on the side of the non-legendary Land, but I imagine banning either would accomplish a similar effect. Whether the Eldrazi deck is still viable with Eldrazi Temple gone is outside the scope of this article, I’m just interested in theorycrafting what the future will look like should Eldrazi still be around in some fashion, not whether that is likely to happen or not. I definitely consider it less likely, which is why this section is smaller (and second).

Urza's TowerThe most important repercussion of Eldrazi’s continued presence in the metagame is the enduring repression of archetypes with unfavorable matchups, specifically Tron and control. While a nerfed Eldrazi archetype might be slow enough that a poor matchup for Tron suddenly becomes strong, I will continue with the assumption that Eldrazi keeps Tron down, so the resulting metagame will look much different as a result. With Eldrazi slower, other linear strategies like Affinity, Burn, and Infect become contextually stronger as a result, and we could see a landscape where one of these three becomes the new Public Enemy #1. This could result in differing cascading effects, and it is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves, so I won’t explore the varying effects each possible King could have.

What is more interesting to me is how Abzan Company will stand up to dedicated hate, as I imagine that strategy becomes the next “best deck” with Eldrazi nerfed. It boasts strong matchups against the Big Three (Affinity/Burn/Infect) and can be tooled to beat almost anything. With Eldrazi continuing to keep Tron down, Abzan Company merely has to contend with faster combo and attrition style decks like Jund and Control (which I anticipate returns as well). Graveyard hate is strong against Abzan Company, as it shuts down both the combo and multiple latent synergies (Kitchen Finks/Scavenging Ooze). Abzan Company has shown it can play the fair game as well, however, and the Gavony Township backup plan is still as strong as ever.

Conclusion

The questions that Eldrazi’s looming banning sponsors are complex and not easily answered, which naturally makes them good questions worth discussing. While we wait for Wizards to make the first move, all we can do is muse, and doing so will put us a step ahead once we enter our Brave New World. Plus, never pass up an opportunity to muse! Let me know in the comments what you thought of my process, and what changes you think will happen to the metagame with Eldrazi’s banning. Will the deck disappear, or will its shell continue to linger in some fashion? Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week.

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

 

The Horror! Brewing UB Horror Control in Modern

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Congratulations to Scott Vezina for his piece being featured under the Volunteer Contributor program at Modern Nexus! If you’d like to submit your own work, just head over to the Contribute Articles page to get started.

Spring cleaning is upon us, Modern mages, and this past weekend I finally made the decision to organize my entire collection. No closet, drawer, shoebox, junk binder, or unused deck box would go unturned…

Cryptborn Horror art

Now, if you’re anything like me you know what a time consuming process this often is. Sorting between format playability, value, rarity, color, bulk (or whatever other criteria you might go by) can be quite the mind- and wrist-numbing task. However, this process is certainly enjoyable at times, especially when you come across those hidden gems. In organizing my “bulk rares” I ran into a long forgotten monster from the original Ravnica expansion and instantly a brewer’s lightbulb flashed above my head. Bing!

Hunted Horror

At first glance, the stats on Hunted Horror are impressive. A 7/7 with trample for two black mana? Count me in! Once you read through the full text box, however, you quickly think twice. Due to its serious drawback upon entering the battlefield, Horror has seen almost no competitive tournament play whatsoever over the years. Another glaring issue with a card like Hunted Horror is that Modern is well known as a “turn three format.” If you’re not winning by then, or stopping your opponent from winning, just what are you doing? How can we afford to play a creature that might actually accelerate our opponent’s clock?  All signs point to an unplayable bulk rare, right? Well, that was until this little Thing came along…

1_thing

Out of all the interesting cards in Shadows Over Innistrad this is the one that really caught my attention. From the flavor to the abilities, [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]
1_thing[/tippy] is one pretty sweet piece of cardboard. There has been much hype and speculation around Thing in the Ice, and in my opinion, it has been with good reason. For a small investment, you have a creature that can drastically swing the game in your favor in just a few turns or less depending upon your deck. And that's where my old-school Hunted Horrors come on.

[wp_ad_camp_1]

If you haven’t caught the synergy yet, take a second and re-read the oracle text on both Hunted Horror and Awoken Horror. Once flipped, Awoken Horror will bounce those pesky Centaur tokens (exiling them for good) along with other non-Horror creatures. This leaves you with the Hunted Horrors in play, and allows you (if undisrupted) to attack for 14+ damage in one turn. Yikes! Bonus: Thing in the Ice happily blocks a 3/3 protection from green Centaurs all day long.

Once I'd fount it, I immediately knew I wanted to build a deck around this synergy. Without further ado I present to you, "The Horror."

The Horror, by Scott Vezina

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Things in the Ice
3 Hunted Horror
2 Spellskite

Instants

3 Vapor Snag
4 Echoing Truth
2 Remand
3 Mana Leak
1 Murderous Cut

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Darkslick Shores
4 Polluted Delta
4 Watery Grave
4 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Island
3 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Dispel
1 Negate
3 Engineered Explosives
2 Thoughtseize
1 Spellskite
2 Threads of Disloyalty
2 Vampiric Link
2 Hibernation

In essence, we have a UB control deck that aims to disrupt early and take over the mid/late game with [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]
1_thing[/tippy] and Hunted Horror. A large number of instants and sorceries in combination with Snapcaster Mage ensure Thing in the Ice will flip consistently, provide you the window of opportunity to close out the game, and disrupt other decks en route to your horrifying finish. Let’s cover the card choices.

Maindeck

Creatures

[tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]
1_thing[/tippy]: The decks namesake and one half of “Team Horror.” Thing in the Ice has the ability to chump block effectively in the early game if necessary or if multiple copies are drawn. Once flipped, it resets the board before swinging for 7+ alone or with its teammates.

Hunted HorrorHunted Horror:  The other half our dynamic duo. As discussed, Horror has serious drawback upon entering the battlefield, but savvy play will ultimately mitigate these costs and lead the way to victory. When Horror works, it racks up huge chunks of damage. Trample is also quite relevant against chump blockers (I’m looking at you, Lingering Souls!).

Snapcaster Mage: Less than four copies may be correct, but I’m coming out the gate with the full set. Snapcaster has terrific synergy with [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy] (which bounces Tiago for later value), provides maximum value to the high instant and sorcery count, and can also chump block and pull off combat tricks in a pinch.

Spellskite: Provides protection to “Team Horror” when we're moving in for the win. Spellskite can be an early game blocker against more aggressive builds, and also provides disruption against Affinity's Arcbound Ravager and the core Infect and Bogles strategies (both of which I suspect will rise again in power and popularity after Eldrazi Winter.) Oh, and did I mention it’s also a Horror? Booyah! This lets Spellskite defend the team both before and after a transformation.

Instants and sorceries

Serum Visions: Like to draw cards? Like to scry? Auto include as a four-of, especially with our Snapcaster and Thing playsets.

Gitaxian ProbeGitaxian Probe: An efficient cantrip that also gives us valuable hidden information.  I wrestled with the final count here and ended up at two copies. Testing will tell if more or less is correct, but I like the idea of playing a “free” spell to take counters off Thing in the Ice, especially in multiples.

Inquisition of Kozilek/Thoughtseize: Likely to be the ideal turn one play in most matchups. Disrupts your opponents’ game plan and also gives you critical information. There’s an additional copy of Thoughtseize in the sideboard for when facing other tempo/control matchups and combo decks.

Vapor Snag/Echoing Truth: Bounces Centaur tokens (Truth kills them both) and also buys time against more aggressive strategies (in particular, fast starts by Affinity and Infect). Whiplash Trap is another option here. The Trap is excellent with Hunted Horror, along with having applications against fast Affinity starts and Lingering Souls. That said, it is often too narrow to be worth it.

RemandRemand/Mana Leak: Current counter suite. Open to suggestions. In a pinch, you can Remand your own spells to get Thing to transform earlier.

Murderous Cut: Solid mid/late game removal. Always strong with cantrips like Visions and Probe, as well as early plays like Thoughtseize and Inquisiton.

Liliana of the Veil: Can help establish control in midrange/combo match ups and stems the bleeding in aggressive ones.

Lands

Fetches/shocks/basics: Self-explanatory, but I’m open to suggestions if my numbers seem off at all.

Creeping Tar Pit: Provides color fixing and an unblockable source of damage in the late-game clean up. In the event Team Horror is dispatched, you can grind down an opponent with just a single Tar Pit and Snapcaster Mage.

Sideboard

DispelDispel/Negate: Additional counter magic for facing other tempo/control strategies and combo decks.

Vampiric Link: A good buddy of mine started using this tech a while back in his Abzan sideboard. I was pretty skeptical at first, but after seeing it in action I was convinced. This provides us pseudo-life gain which we can bring in during the Burn match up to put on an Eidolon of the Great Revel or just strap it on a member of Team Horror and go to work.

Hibernation: This card has been clutch for me in the past against Bogles and Jund/Abzan. In my opinion, it has never seen enough play in Modern. As an added bonus, it also bounces the Centaur tokens created by Hunted Horror.

Engineered ExplosivesEngineered Explosives: This slot could easily be Chalice of the Void, but I like the idea of drawing out your opponents hand Game 2 and lighting the fuse. A must-play against Affinity, Infect and Merfolk, but be careful not to blow your own team up. Note that with the Shadows rules update, Awoken Horror will have a converted mana cost of two, not zero. Hurkyl's Recall would also be an option in a meta rampant with Affinity, but Explosives at 0 will also kill the Centaurs.

Threads of Disloyalty: Mainly used against BGx Midrange to grab a Tarmogoyf or Scavenging Ooze, but could certainly have other applications. Not sold on this slot because of anti-synergy with a flipped Thing bouncing creatures back to their owner's hand.

Sideboarding notes

Depending on the matchup, taking out Hunted Horror may be the right call, so it’s possible some number of other creatures could be squeezed in the sideboard to increase threat density in that scenario. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Dark ConfidantWhile finalizing this deck many other card choices came to mind (Delver of Secrets, Vendilion Clique, Tasigur, Dark Confidant, other removal spells/counters, Trickbind, Phyrexian Obliterator anyone??) but I wanted to stick to a tight game plan and believe this list reflects that. Another configuration would be to splash white for Path to Exile and [tippy title="Declaration in Stone" width="330" height="330"]1_declaration[/tippy] (Declaration is especially strong against Centaurs and Lingering Souls' Spirits). This would make the manabase more fragile and painful, but the tradeoff could be worth it. Regardless of the colors, one question that might be running through your head right now is, “Is this just a bad Delver or control deck?” That’s entirely possible, but I believe the concept of new and powerful late game finishers in a control shell is worth exploring. Below are just a few notes on piloting this list if you feel like giving it a spin:

  • Play tight and play patient. There’s no rush to fill the board. Before running out Hunted Horror you need to be in the position to do so. The plan is to disrupt your opponent’s board state and hand so that you can win the game over the course of 2-3 turns.
  • Echoing Truth is probably the most powerful spell in the deck, especially in tandem with Hunted Horror. Use them wisely.
  • Timing with [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]1_thing[/tippy] is very important and can make or break your game plan. Play out early if need be to chump block or stall until mid-game where you can flip in a turn or two.
  • Play out Spellskite before Hunted Horror/Thing In the Ice whenever possible as it will deflect the removal aimed at your threats. Abrupt Decay is your worst enemy and this is one way around it.
  • Creeping Tar Pit and Snapcaster Mage are another prime source of damage and will need to put in extra work if your other threats do not assemble. Be aggressive with this line if need be.

Early Match Results

As anticipated, the most problematic matchup for this build so far has been Jund and Abzan midrange. I’ve played a total of 10 games against them and only managed to pull off two wins. Abrupt Decay, Path to Exile, and their discard suite proved to be very difficult to play against. Liliana of the Veil was also a big problem at times. I’ll need to do some more thinking on how to tilt the odds in this match up. Suggestions are welcomed.

Boros CharmI tested a five game match against Burn, which my opponent won 3-2. I found the matchup a bit closer than expected, especially after sideboarding, but always felt on the back foot. Not surprising, but not nearly as uneven as the Jund/Abzan matchup.

In a five game match against Tron I won 4-1, and I see this as a favorable match up.  Hand disruption, removal, and bounce spells matched with Pyroclasm-proof threats proved to be quite strong.

In a five game match against Infect I won 3-2. Inkmoth Nexus is difficult to deal with (cannot be targeted with Echoing Truth or blocked effectively), but the current maindeck has a lot of tools to use against them and even a few more in the sideboard. I was also able to cleanly assemble Team Horror on multiple occasions (thanks to their lack of removal), flipping Thing In the Ice for a swift victory. Maindeck Spellskite is also brutal. Overall, I would say this is a favorable matchup.

Horrors Await!

In closing I’d like to say I am a Spike who thrives on winning. It doesn’t matter if that’s a game of Magic or badminton. Over the years I’ve became a genuine and honest sportsman, but at the end of the day I play to win. This is due to my extremely competitive nature and there is really no way around it. That being said, I’m a Timmy at heart that loves brewing and just can’t resist the allure of new (and old) toys.

I’d be interested in hearing your feedback in the comments on possible inclusions/exclusions, general thoughts on the deck itself, and viability moving forward in the post-Eldrazi metagame. I look forward to hopefully sharing much more on test/match results in a follow up piece, along with an updated deck list. Modern is soon to be in a very transitional phase so it was fun to think a little outside of the box with this one and present my first official Magic article to Modern Nexus in the process. Hope you enjoyed it!

Until next time, keep on shuffling. Cheers!

Insider: Dissecting SOI Spoilers – Removal

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Has anyone else noticed the power creep in Standard? It's not just the singular powerful cards like Jace, Vryn's Prodigy or the aggressively undercosted Eldrazi. It seems like the average power of even the mid-level cards is increasing.

Remember what bulk rares used to look like? They were garbage cards that had basically no playability outside of Limited and sometimes not even then. Today’s bulk rares are sweet Commander cards or fringe-playable Standard cards. It’s rare that we see a truly unplayable card like we used to. Now we get all the good cards.

Additionally, we are seeing more playable cards for constructed formats in each set. Not only do we have a tier one deck, but we have enough awesome cards for multiple tier one decks. The average player can pick up someone’s Standard deck and have a reasonable chance of beating anyone at their FNM simply due to the inherent power level of the cards in every deck.

No longer are you required to scrounge for medium cards to round out decks. Rather you must decide which great cards will make the cut. You have so many great choices but you have to narrow them down into one deck. This takes some skill, but leaving every deck super powered has flaws as well.

Today we will focus on all the wonderful new options available in the removal department. Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) places some incredible new tools at our disposal. The shed is bursting open with different ways to disrupt your opponent.

This thorough list from SOI includes many of the set's best cards. I’ve broken the cards down by color so let’s sort through the tool box for the best options.

White

Declaration in Stone

declarationinstone

Let’s start off with the ugly duckling. Just like Path to Exile, Declaration in Stone isn’t getting the recognition it deserves.

This new sorcery is a cheaper version of Maelstrom Pulse that targets creatures. Not only that but it deals with indestructible creatures as well! You can freely remove every Gideon, Ally of Zendikar or Nissa, Voice of Zendikar creature token with no repercussions. There is a drawback for other creatures but how much of a drawback is it?

So, in order to get this amazing rate on Declaration in Stone, we have to give our opponent a clue token most of the time. Sweeping all of the same token isn’t insignificant though and the fact that you can do so with no downside is quite relevant. Letting our opponent draw an extra card is definitely potent, but how good is it going to be? Let’s do some comparisons.

Starting off, we need to think about how quickly we will be killing our opponent. For instance, if we can kill them on turn four or five, giving them a clue token is likely irrelevant because they won’t have time to utilize it.

If we aren’t killing them until turn ten though, like in a control deck, that clue token starts looking like more of a downside. Even so, having a removal spell that hits any targetable creature isn’t something we see these days. We live in a world where most removal spells narrowly deal with a specific niche of threats.

Declaration in Stone reminds me more of Thought-Knot Seer. Instead of ripping a card out of their hand, you allow them to spend their resources putting the card into play. Then later, they get a new random card. With Thought-Knot, they have to find a way to kill it and that takes mana and a card. Declaration is slightly less difficult because they only need to take time and spend two mana.

In the end, just like Path to Exile, I think Declaration in Stone will see tons of play in Standard. We will find that this drawback is an acceptable cost to pay to remove any threat.

Sitting around $4 is where I would expect this to be, but I think we'll likely see a typical dip in price after release. Should that happen, I think this card is a good investment. If it becomes the premium removal spell I expect it to, then it should crest over that $4 mark. This is a great spell to trade into and you will definitely want a playset for yourself.

Puncturing Light

puncturinglight

I wanted to mention the Puncturing Light reprint to highlight the difference between cards like this and Declaration in Stone.

Cards like this, Silkwrap, or Immolating Glare are what we are used to from cheap white removal spells. The Swords to Plowshares type removal spells that I am lumping Declaration in with are the exception. I doubt Puncturing Light will see any play, but as a comparison it helps us shed some light on the situation.

Angelic Purge

angelicpurge

Although it would be easy to compare this to a weaker version of Declaration, I included it here for its Disenchant abilities. Can you tell I think highly of Declaration yet? With how narrow our removal spells are becoming, Disenchant effects have definitely taken a hit. These spells for two mana aren’t the norm anymore.

Instead though, what we get with Angelic Purge is versatility. It’s unlikely that we would play this over a better removal spell, but having the ability for your sideboard answer to also hit a creature is something we don’t typically get either. If you are looking for a Naturalize effect, consider Angelic Purge for some sideboard slots.

Descend upon the Sinful

descenduponthesinful

As an aggro player, I love that Wrath of God cards are taking a step down in power level. No longer do we have to worry about losing the game on turn four when our field is wiped. Instead, we have to play around more expensive sweepers that have added bonuses.

Descend upon the Sinful is unlikely to see much play. For a six-mana sweeper though, it does provide a huge boon if you have delirium. Cards like this create the option for a control deck with this as its only win condition. I expect this to be infrequently played but you may see them as a one- or two-of in a control shell.

Unload this mythic ASAP. Try to get your $3 out of it and get them for half that later if you happen to need them.

Archangel Avacyn

archangelavacyn

Lastly we have the most iconic card of the set, Archangel Avacyn. While this dark angel isn’t a traditional removal spell, I suspect that more of my creatures will die to flashed-in Avacyns than most other removal spells in the set.

There is no hiding her power level here. Avacyn should be one of the most played removal spells in the set. Her flip side could be absent from the card and she would still be in my Top 10 list for this set. With her double-sided awesomeness, she pushes the boundaries of what five mana means for a Magic card.

Regardless, if your plains-wielding opponent has five open mana, you will need to respect Avacyn. She will be there lurking in a wide variety of decks.

Blue

Counterspells

confirmsuspicions invasivesurgery brokenconcentration

In our vampire and werewolf set, we get some new counters to add to our repertoire. Many players interested in Modern have noted Invasive Surgery as a potential powerhouse. It could also see play in Legacy as a better version of Envelop. This gives us potential to make some money on foils of the card, so keep your eyes open for them.

As far as Standard goes though, the format would have to shape up very strangely in order for this card to see play.

We also have another version of Cancel in Broken Concentration as well as an expensive counter that could see play with Confirm Suspicions. These are good to be aware of but they shouldn’t direct the flow of the format much at all.

Bounce

justthewind pressforanswers

Where blue will have the most impact from a removal standpoint is with some good bounce spells. Press for Answers may be good enough as a pseudo-Repulse, but the real winner is Just the Wind. My initial impression of this card is that it might be played in every blue deck.

If you are playing blue in Standard, most likely you are utilizing the most powerful Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. Just the Wind is the perfect pair to that planeswalker. So many spells are great with Jace but Just the Wind is certainly near the top of the list. I mentioned in my article a couple weeks ago that he may be on his way up in price again and considering how Shadows is turning out I think that outcome is likely.

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

jaceunravelerofsecrets

Last up we have second place Jace, Unraveler of Secrets. He may be taking a back seat right now, but his abilities pair well together so that could lead to some minor play. Where I think he will find more success is after the next rotation when we don’t have a broken Jace competing with him for deck space.

Even so, I think we could see a 4/1 or 4/2 split to jam more Jaces into your deck. At five mana bouncing a creature may be too slow but being able to protect itself it one of the key elements of a good planeswalker.

Black

Dead Weight

deadweight

One-mana removal spells tend to be powerful just because of how cheap they are. With delirium though, this already decent kill spell turns into an enabler for other cards in your deck.

Most decks will have a target for this enchantment, but even bigger creatures are less threatening when they shrink. In addition, putting it in your graveyard to help other cards is just fine as well. Overall, Dead Weight should see tons of play taking out all manner of aggressive creatures.

Biting Rain & Murderous Compulsion

bitingrain murderouscompulsion

Both Murderous Compulsion and Biting Rain are decent on their own, but adding madness to these decent removal spells increases their power. Murderous Compulsion is a strict upgrade to Assassinate and even Death Stroke. You have a much better mana cost, but the real upgrade is the ability to cast it as an instant when you use the madness ability.

The same goes for Biting Rain. This time around madness looks like it will work its way into multiple decks.

Sinister Concoction

sinisterconcoction

Initially when I read this card it seemed like there was a lot of text and it was filled with many drawbacks. When you pair it with madness cards though it starts to seem more like an enabler instead of a card with a list of downsides.

I love the fact that Sinister Concoction kills any creature too. If you were thinking about playing Grasp of Darkness, you may want to replace it with a better Concoction or at least play a split of the two cards.

To the Slaughter

totheslaughter

The best removal spell in the set has one of the worst names. To the Slaughter strikes me more as a phrase than a name. That aside, this card is either scary or underpowered. I wouldn’t go building every black deck with this card, but if you can enable delirium you will definitely be leading your opponent To the Slaughter.

Living in a magical world of kill your worst guy plus your planeswalker wins so many theoretical games. It will be hard to sequence with this removal spell though. You may have the urge to play it on turn three, and that may be necessary, but it will be much better in the mid or late game once you have a bunch of cards in your graveyard.

Because of this delicate balance, I don’t think we'll see four copies of this spell in a deck. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop under its meager $3 price tag.

A final note on black's removal suite. I found it interesting that there weren't any reasonable ways to interact with your opponent's hand in this set. There are other tools available in Standard, but surprisingly none from Shadows.

Red

Avacyn's Judgment & Burn from Within

avacynsjudgment burnfromwithin

I’m always surprised when a set contains two similar cards like Avacyn's Judgment and Burn from Within. Theoretically Burn from Within is great because it rids you of problematic indestructible creatures, but unless that is a primary issue, you will probably look to Avacyn’s Judgment for this type of card.

I like this as a two-mana spell or a sweet late game spell to trigger with madness. Your red Madness deck should definitely consider Avacyn’s Judgment as a versatile tool to utilize.

Lightning Axe

lightningaxe

Lightning Axe should kill most threats in Standard and it gives you a great madness outlet. It didn’t see any play last time it was printed but this reprint gives you another great option.

This is a perfect example of a card that may not be played in lots of decks but having it as another option for removal isn’t something we’ve been used to in the past. There are so many options for your deck that you can change up your list from week to week to adapt to how the metagame is evolving.

Fiery Temper

fierytemper

Madness Lightning Bolt. This is another spell that was glossed over with both of its other printings, but not this time. Every deck would love to play Bolt and players will find madness outlets so they can cast this spell.

Dual Shot & Geistblast

dualshot geistblast

Finally, red gets a couple of interesting cards that may sit on the bench in this format but they are intriguing nonetheless. Geistblast is a slow shock that rewards you in the late game and Dual Shot is a new version of Forked Bolt. Neither of these spells are going to warp the format, but they might grab a sideboard spot or two.

Green

Clip Wings

clipwings1

There was a long time in my Magic history when I wished for Plummet. I advocated for that card being printed long before it saw the ink of a real set. Now, we have another option for that slot with Clip Wings.

Options are great and there is an interesting dynamic between these two green spells that kill flyers. Standard seems like a format that might want both of these removal spells. There seem to be many decent flyers that will be impactful.

Root Out

rootout

I’m not convinced that we need a playable Naturalize, but Root Out gives you a clue token for just one extra mana. Granted it is a sorcery but that’s not too much of an issue. If artifacts or enchantments become problematic, look to Root Out the problem.

Fight Spells

moonlighthunt rabidbite

Green also gets ways to fight. We have an option to use any of our creatures to fight or team up with our werewolves to take out a larger threat.

It’s likely that neither Moonlight Hunt nor Rabid Bite will see play because killing your creature in response to a fight spell like this is too much of a blowout to come back from. Being aware they exist is important, but it’s more likely that you would play Dromoka's Command than either of these spells.

Multicolored

Anguished Unmaking

anguishedunmakingpromo

Vindicate 2.0 seems great except that many players won’t be playing both black and white mana. Anguished Unmaking suffers from a poor name but it gets to be an instant which is a huge upgrade. You may lose three life, but that’s worth dealing with any problematic non-land permanent.

I don’t like the mana cost in this format, but it may not prove to be as much of a downside as it initially seems. Now all the Cube owners need to decide whether they will replace their Vindicate or add a Vindicate variant to their cube.

This version I chose to show is the Game Day Top 8 promo and those should fetch a decent amount of money. Trade into those if at all possible. If Anguished Unmaking starts seeing a ton of play I think it may go up in price, but it should go down first so you have time to get copies of the card.

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

soringrimnemesis

I find it interesting that all of the planeswalkers in SOI have some type of removal built into their abilities. Sorin, Grim Nemesis lines up similarly to Chandra, Flamecaller except as a single target rather than a sweeper.

His starting loyalty of 6 is impressive as well. If you use the plus ability to draw a card and deal your opponent some damage he can have 7 loyalty on the first turn. That can be tough to deal with for any player.

I like this planeswalker a lot but his mana cost will hold him back. Wizards is giving us good reasons to play six-mana planeswalkers. Both Sorin and Chandra are great example of this. Elspeth, Sun's Champion isn’t an anomaly any longer but rather a comparison tool.

I wouldn’t buy in on Sorin yet though. As with all the walkers in the set, they are inflated right now and should descend after release.

Arlinn Kord

arlinnkord arlinnembracedbythemoon

Red-green has been one of my favorite color combinations since I first started playing. My biggest dilemma in my Cube is what Gruul cards to include because there are so many I love. Arlinn Kord seems like it will fall into that category as well. This planeswalker has everything I love about this game wrapped into one amazing shell.

One card that can make creatures, kill creatures, and pump your team seems too good to be true. Maybe the low loyalty will hold this card back from greatness, but with so many great abilities paired together, it’s hard to go wrong.

We will need to find Arlinn at least one home in Standard, but the card is so potent that shouldn’t be an issue. We may need to reevaluate the red and green cards based on how they play with this great card. You may only be able to use this as removal every other turn but skillfully using the abilities should win many games.

As great as the card is, though, it should still come down in price. Look to scoop them after the inevitable drop from hyped preorder prices.

Nahiri, the Harbinger

nahiritheharbinger

One of my favorite cards in the set may surprise you. I think as time passes, we will come to understand how powerful Nahiri, the Harbinger really is.

Earlier I mentioned Murderous Compulsion and this planeswalker is another version of that spell. The difference is that it’s a permanent that sticks around before or after executing that ability. She is good on an open board or a cluttered one and I think she will show much more potential than her critics give her credit for.

I love that Nihiri is in this set. She is such a cool character and her abilities are great also. For me, this card is a definite win on many axes.

~

Well that’s all for me this week. As you can see, there is a ton of removal in Shadows over Innistrad. You have a plethora of options to build with from this set alone. Let me know in the comments if you enjoyed this approach to reviewing a set. We looked at many cards in the set through the lens of the removal they offer as well as the what their financial future might look like.

Until next time,
Unleash the Shadow Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: QS Cast #29: Our First SOI Testing Results

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The cast gets together and pores over the full spoiler. We’ve already got some early testing results and we’re eager to share them. Tune into this half hour to find out our picks for sleepers in the set. We talked about:

Sylvan advocate $4.25

Oath of Nissa – $2

Jace – $74.00

Relentless Dead – $17

Archangel Avacyn $25

Kalitas $26

Thalia’s Lieutenant $2

Declaration in Stone – $2.50

Olivia – $15

Falkenrath Gorger – $2.25

Deathcap Cultivator – $1.50

Always Watching – $1.50

Dromoka’s Command – $3

Ulenvald Hyrda – $3.50

Sanctum of Ugin – $1

World Breaker – $6

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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