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Should You Be Playing More Cantrips?

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Cantrips are often times considered among the better cards in many high-powered formats. Legacy is defined by Brainstorm. Ponder and Preordain were both banned from Modern. In high-powered cubes, these cards are early picks. In many lower-powered draft formats, players seem less excited about taking them. They are picked later in drafts and are included in the final deck far less often.

What are Cantrips?

A cantrip is defined, by the MTG Wiki, as "a spell that draws a card in addition to its other effects (usually minor) and can therefore be said to replace itself." Typically these cards cost U or 1U and are instants or sorceries.

The Infamous

In theory, the idea is that these cards cost very little and offer a minor advantage, that can scale depending on a number of variables. The primary function they offer is replacing themselves. The cost is low. The advantages can vary. For example:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gitaxian Probe
  • Cost: Extremely low - U or two life.
  • Advantage: Knowledge of your opponents hand.
  • Abused advantage: Gitaxian Probe, being a potentially "free" spell, can contribute to storm or delirium, while serving as fodder for delve costs, and cards like Snapcaster Mage or Yawgmoth's Will.

Gitaxian Probe seems like a harmless card, but it is easy to use it to gain an advantage thanks to its low cost. There are many opportunities in a game of Magic to gain advantages when you cast instants, sorceries, or spells in general; have cards in your graveyard; play multiple spells in a turn; draw multiple cards in a turn, etc. Cantrips do a good job of checking all of these boxes, to the point that whole deck strategies have been built around them (more on that in a bit). The fact that this one can do so for zero mana is very powerful. Finally, it replaces itself, so you haven't lost a resource.

It's All Upside

Brainstorm, Ponder, Preordain

An understanding of cantrips must start with the holy trinity: Brainstorm, Ponder, and Preordain. This trio finds its way into many of the most powerful blue decks in the most powerful formats. Why? For a low price, these cards offer utility and replace themselves. This means that by playing four copies of all three, a constructed deck essentially reduces its card count from a minimum of sixty cards to forty-eight. Of those forty-eight cards, the player will have more control over which ones they see. These small tools offer a rare consistency. Sometimes they offer more.

Preordain and Ponder play similarly. Preordain provides a scry two before replacing itself, helping you to clear clunkers and set up the next series of plays. Ponder allows you to arrange the top three or shuffle the deck and draw randomly. If you're looking for a specific card or a specific type of card, Ponder gives you four cracks at it. If you're looking to smooth out draws at the beginning of the game Preordain is a premium option.

Brainstorm is the trickiest of the bunch. It expands your hand by drawing three cards, before selecting two to reside at the top of your deck. Without further help, this effect is relatively low impact, as you will draw those cards in the coming turns. However, if you can shuffle away two lesser cards, Brainstorm can feel like a draw three. Giving yourself that much control over your deck is powerful, especially if you're using those very cards to flip Delver of Secrets, trigger Young Pyromancer or Adeliz, the Cinder Wind, cast Murktide Regent, etc. These little tools can offer tons of value to the right deck.

Turbo Xerox Mindset

Turbo-Xerox is a term for strategies that use a high cantrip count to control draws. This creates an artificially high creature and land count while dedicating less space to those types of cards.

UR Aggro - Gul_Dukat - MTGO Showcase Challenge, 9th Place

Creatures

1 Brazen Borrower
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Dragon's Rage Channeler
4 Ledger Shredder
3 Murktide Regent

Cantrips

4 Brainstorm
4 Expressive Iteration
4 Ponder
4 Mishra's Bauble

Interaction

4 Daze
4 Force of Will
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Pyroblast

Lands

2 Flooded Strand
1 Island
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
4 Volcanic Island

This deck only has fourteen lands. Ponder, Brainstorm, Mishra's Bauble, and Expressive Iteration create velocity. The player sees more cards each turn and as a result, can draw lands reliably. These decks are still dominating the format.

Additionally, the high spell count fuels many of the deck's best threats. All of the creatures, besides the singleton Brazen Borrower, benefit from the spell density in the deck. They help Ledger Shredder, Delver of Secrets, and Dragon's Rage Channeler grow in size while further controlling draws and they help Murktide Regent hit the table earlier.

Similarly, decks like UR Aggro, RUG Delver, and Death's Shadow in Modern and Legacy all benefit from the Turbo Xerox strategy.

Cantrips in Draft: Mysteries in Midnight Hunt

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt (MID) offered three cards that could be described as cantrips at common. Two were instants and one was a sorcery. Below are the overall rankings of all blue commons, by game-in-hand win rate, according to 17lands.com.

The Good: Consider is a very traditional cantrip. If you cast it with mana that you otherwise would not have used then theoretically your deck is objectively better having included the Consider. Spending one mana uses no more resources than leaving one unused. But the cantrip is better than just a card. It's a selected card. At any given time, every card in our deck has an equal chance of being drawn. A card like Consider lets us improve those odds towards the cards we want.

The Bad: Secrets of the Key is a bad card. Paying three mana for a card to replace itself is too much. Yes, you can, later on, pay four mana to get the opportunity to pay two mana for a card two more times, but this rate is the antithesis of what cantrips are supposed to do. They are supposed to be cheap upgrades to your resources. This is an inefficient card draw spell disguised as a cantrip.

The Startling: Startle had the biggest impact on players' win rates. Two mana is a lot for a cantrip, but this card could serve as much more. This card is a combat trick that can impact the board in addition to being a cantrip. It also leaves behind a meager body in a decayed zombie token.

Startling Development

When I first saw Startle I assumed it would be strong. For two mana, it offers a lot of versatility. It can be cycled to prevent damage or to look for land early on. Opportunistic players can turn this combat trick into a removal spell. The zombie can even be used for Skaab Wrangler or Larder Zombie. You can sacrifice it. You can alpha-strike with it. Even if you don't get much value from the token, and even if the combat trick was low impact, you still get a card. Startle gives you all this plus the card that you would have drawn, if you didn't put Startle in the deck.

This style of cantrip has become popular and powerful. Kamigawa Neon Dynasty (NEO) and Streets of New Capenna (SNC) have two very similar combat tricks. Suit up and Majestic Metamorphosis use the Startle model to have an even bigger impact on combat. The typical play pattern is attacking with an undersized creature, getting blocked, and casting the combat trick so that you win the combat and draw the card. Without the card draw aspect, we would rarely want them in our deck. For example, Mordenkainen's Polymorph boasts a strictly unplayable game-in-hand win rate of 45.3%. It's unclear to me where the line is between cantrip and combat trick when it comes to these cards. However, the value is clear.

In Limited, where removal is more precious and less efficient, it is a safer expectation that these effects will resolve. In Constructed, their fragility makes them unplayable. Conversely, the effects provided by cards like Consider are hard to disrupt. Relying on these low costed spells is more powerful, as they will be finding the powerful cards in your constructed deck.

The Value of "Draw a Card"

Cantrips are superior in Constructed because of the other cards in the deck. Synergies aside, we build Constructed decks with the best cards possible. We select each inclusion with thoughtful analysis. In Draft, we build with what we get. Being limber while accessing a well-crafted Constructed deck lets you play towards familiar situations with well-prepared recourse.

In Draft, you have to select a cantrip at the expense of another card that could have made your deck. This implies that the rest of your cards would be less powerful. For instance, Galedrifter was a card I would often play. I'd rather have one in my pool than not. If I pass that card over Consider, a card with a very similar game-in-hand win rate, what am I saying?

When we navigate drafts, we find ourselves in nuanced situations. I might need a four-drop, a flyer, a card with disturb, or a midrange threat for all the normal reasons. I would select Consider if I wanted better selection in an already powerful deck. Additionally, cheap spells and sending cards to the graveyard might be good in my deck. If I already have Festival Crasher, Thermo-Alchemist and Seize the Storm than Consider will be powerful. If I have a lot of disturb, than Consider can help enable my graveyard while netting a resource. For one mana, I'm getting more than a card in those decks.

But even without those synergies, if I know my deck has strong tools the cantrip lets me utilize them better. Most cards are what they say they are. The cantrip could be anything.

Reminder: "draw a card" is not actually better than the specific card you want to draw.

What To Look For

We can consider the possibilities of what card(s) you want to draw in a given situation. We can rank every possible card in our deck in order of the most coveted draw to the least. This is true for every draw over the course of the game. Streamlining strong decks is often better than adding another copy of a replaceable effect.

If Your Deck Has Good Cards, These Are Good Cards

The best cards provide agency. The worst feeling in a game of Magic the Gathering is the sense that you have no control over the outcome of the game. Cards like Opt and Serum Vision give you small options that can impact the trajectory of the game. Scrying a card to the bottom of your library and drawing an extra one accelerates every draw in your deck by two turns.

Draw A Card Plus Synergy

Synergies are harder to build in Draft. Spirited Companion and Setessan Training both replace themselves like any good cantrip would. However, the fact that these cards are enchantments in formats that offers benefits for enchantments is extremely important. The aura could trigger both heroic or constellation in Theros Beyond Death (THB), whereas the dog helped enable enchantment payoffs in NEO.

Thought Scour is just Dark Ritual, draw a card in decks looking to delve out Gurmag Anglers. In Draft, cards that replace themselves while enabling our plan are extremely valuable.

Cost-Reward Analysis

The two major costs of a cantrip are the mana they cost and the slots they take up in deck construction. Both of these costs are relatively low, but one instance of card selection isn't an overwhelming advantage. In most Limited formats, it is impossible to build a Turbo-Xerox deck. The benefits are still there, however, and if we can generate small synergies these cantrips become powerful inclusions.

The reason why Spirited Companion was the second-best white common, and third-best common overall in NEO was because it was a cantrip that provided synergy. Cantrips will always be a reasonable inclusion to any deck because they represent another card in that deck. When we start getting additional value from the cantrip itself, that's when we have a winning strategy.

In Throne of Eldraine (ELD) Opt was more than just the card that replaced it. It was a trigger for Faerie Vandal and Improbable Alliance. In MID, Consider put disturb cards into the graveyard for additional value. Startle, Majestic Metamorphosis, and Suit Up are valuable in combat, which is a latent-synergy to almost any Limited deck.

Cantrips will never be a disaster on their own. If your deck has powerful cards, especially if those cards thrive in specific situations, the cantrips will be even better. However, if you can maximize the value of these cheap spells with other synergies, then you will be card drawing like a Legacy player. Don't be afraid to take a cantrip over filler when drafting a deck. If you trust the cards that you have, and you trust the decisions you are going to be able to make, then you'll always benefit from having more agency.

It’s a Buyers’ Market Out There

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“And I’m a bad boy, ‘cause I don’t even miss her
I’m a bad boy for breakin’ her heart…

Now I’m free
Free fallin’
Yeah, I’m free
Free fallin’”

Tom Petty, "Free Fallin'"

These Tom Petty lyrics may have been introduced to the world four years before Magic debuted, but they still ring true in the current market environment. It’s no need to panic, though. Let's dive into recent market data and try to highlight some ideas to have on our radar as we navigate this new buyers’ market.

Double Masters 2022 Selloff

I’ll admit “Free falling” may be a bit of a hyperbole, but check out the biggest declines on MTGStocks over the past week—clearly, free-falling is an appropriate descriptor for Double Masters 2022 at least.

These are market prices, meaning the cards are selling for this much less than they had sold for just seven days ago. Most of the movers are borderless variants, but there are some regular printings smattered throughout the list as well. Privileged Position, one of my favorite cards, has suffered the worst out of regular printings, down 72.78% this week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Privileged Position

The list above isn’t nearly complete, mind you. This was just what I could display on my laptop for a screenshot. In fact, there are 45 cards listed that have dropped more than 50% since last week. To get to a card not printed in Double Masters 2022 on this list, you have to go to the 53rd worst performer, which is the MagicFest printing of Path of Ancestry.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Path of Ancestry

Suddenly, my warning not to preorder any singles from Double Masters 2022 seems like worthy advice. Booster boxes have also pulled back, albeit more modestly than the set’s singles. Boxes can be purchased on TCGplayer for $345 as of today. They were $375 when I wrote about the set a couple of weeks ago. It’s much more difficult to project where prices will go from here.

My pragmatic (though not all that specific) advice would be to monitor pricing trends on these closely for any indications of supply constraints. If prices begin to move up, we’ll know our window to purchase these boxes at a fair price is closing. Until that happens, however, I think we can take our time.

Old School Card Selloff

On the one hand, we have cards from Magic’s newest paper set, Double Masters 2022, selling off like crazy. On the other hand, cards from Magic’s oldest sets, from Alpha through The Dark, are also pulling back. You won’t see massive lists of 70% droppers from Arabian Nights like you did from Double Masters 2022, but I am definitely seeing market softness in certain areas.

For example, Card Kingdom’s buylist prices for Old School cards have retreated over the past few weeks, quite significantly in some cases. At its peak in late 2021, Eureka could be buylisted for nearly $800 cash to Card Kingdom. Today, Card Kingdom’s buy price is $420, with downward momentum.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eureka

The only reason the above price plot doesn’t look more negative is that ABUGames stepped up their buy price recently, to $535. If not for that, the graph would look a bit worse.

Even more egregious perhaps is the buy price graph for Beta Disrupting Scepter. I’ve followed this card closely because it wasn’t long ago when I was looking to pick up three of these to upgrade the copies in one of my Old School decks. I found some in the $300-$350 range from Star City Games and thought I was getting a steal! At the time, the top buy price was around $450 for near mint copies, so I figured LP/MP copies $100 less was a great price.

Then Card Kingdom started restocking these, and their price dropped. Then dropped again. Then dropped some more.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Disrupting Scepter

The best buy price on this card went from $450 all the way down to $240 before ABUGames once again upped their buy price a bit. I took note of that adjustment, in fact, and shipped ABUGames two of my three copies for cash (I wasn’t using them anymore). That’s right, cash. I almost never ship cards to ABUGames for cash because their trade-in credit numbers are so much higher, and usually, I can find something to trade into. Not this time—just show me the money!

For the most part, prices on Old School cards like this have been steadily declining, once again making for a potentially attractive buyers’ market. One other card I want to touch on is Library of Alexandria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

You can’t see it in the graph above, once again because ABUGames is paying pretty well on this card. Removing them from the equation, you see a very different picture. Card Kingdom was paying over $1800 cash just a couple months ago. Now they’re offering a disappointing $1010. I can’t really blame them because they have a dozen copies in stock! They are definitely in a price reduction cycle, and they’ll continue to drop these prices until copies move. At that point, Card Kingdom will likely start bumping numbers gradually upwards again.

It's getting to the point where Card Kingdom’s sell prices aren’t too bad when you factor in that store credit is readily available to purchase at an 85% rate. This means you can get a 15% discount off a purchase from Card Kingdom if you can find someone selling store credit. Their “Good” price for Library of Alexandria is $1259.99, so with the 15% discount you could acquire a heavily played copy for under $1100 cash.

That’s not too bad, since TCGplayer low is $1200 for damaged. That data point obscures the current weakness in the market. I’ve found a couple more interesting listings. First, there’s this ABUGames auction on eBay, which hasn’t gotten a bid yet:

Granted, this copy is in very rough shape, but it would still be sleeve playable I bet. Then, if you want a really really cheap copy, check out this one over at Face to Face Games in Canada:

Whoa, I can’t remember the last time I saw a copy for this cheap! Granted, it’s a very beat-up copy with signature and severe shuffle wear. But if you want the cheapest copy on the market that is probably still sleeve playable, this is your card! In fact, I predict that by this time next week, after readers had a chance to view this listing, this Library will have sold.

Optimism Ahead

These numbers can look pretty dire. But I want to assure readers that this is perfectly healthy for a market. We’re seeing significant selloffs in stocks and cryptocurrency—it stands to reason that Magic would not be immune to the same overall market weakness. Let’s face it: people can finally feel confident going out and experiencing things again. They aren’t allocating as much money for investing, trading, and playing card games at their kitchen table.

I don’t see any indication of a systemic risk to Magic itself. The game is still healthy, my Twitter feed is still filled with passionate people who love talking about Magic, and cards are still exchanging hand for cash on a regular basis. The Old School pullback is not going to last forever. Also, the Double Masters 2022 selloff looks worse than it really is because preorder prices were too high!

I predict that in a few months—perhaps as we get into late Fall—we’ll see things bottom. I see the current market weakness as a fantastic buyers’ market to take advantage of. In fact, I have already made some moves accordingly; I sold some cards to Card Kingdom and ABUGames before their buy prices dropped too far in order to free up cash. Some of the money I placed into the college fund (as that is always priority number one), but I do have a small bit ready to do some buying.

What will I purchase? I’m watching prices on the Four Horsemen sets in particular (Arabian Nights, Antiquities, Legends, The Dark). If I can pick up another Shahrazad for a great price, I just might do so—it’s my all-time favorite card after all! Also, if Juzam Djinn falls below $1000 like Library of Alexandria appears to have done, I may be tempted there too. Candelabra of Tawnos is another card I’ve always wanted, and Moat isn’t far behind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Moat

Granted, I don’t have the money to buy all these cards so I’ll have to make some priority calls. One thing is certain, I’m going to be on high alert looking for deals throughout the summer as prices continue to remain soft.

Wrapping It Up

Prices are pretty weak in two distinct areas of the market: Double Masters 2022 singles and Old School cards—the two extremes. Honestly, cards printed between 1995 and 2022 may also be down some—I can’t follow every market so closely. But at least for the old and the new, the data is clear and compelling.

Be careful with how you spend your money in this softening market. We buyers can be picky and choosey with where we spend our Magic money. There should be no reason to rush a purchase. With enough patience (and some research of different stores), we can find the card we want at the price point we’re looking for. I anticipate the market will be like this for at least another couple of months.

If you’re afraid you may miss the bottom and forget to buy, I’d encourage you to pay close attention to this website. You can be confident that I will be one of the first people to point out any sort of market reversal as soon as I see one. Until then, enjoy some lower prices and happy shopping!

Generational Magic: Store Spotlight—Knighthood Games

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Along with sharing my own Magic: the Gathering journey, I like to share what's going on with others in the Magic community. Not just the players, but the people that provide a place to gather. I was visiting family and had an opportunity to stop in Cookeville, Tennessee over Memorial Day Weekend. Here's a glimpse into the gaming community of Knighthood Games.

Come On Down!

What's your name, the name of your store, and where are you located?
I'm Eddie Walker and I'm the Manager of Knighthood Games in Cookeville TN.

Eddie

How long has Knighthood Games been around?
That is a multi-part answer. We began as Bob's Collector's Den in 1983 dealing largely in sports cards and comics. When Magic came out, the original owner, Bob, started selling it as well. While still just a player, I started to run events at another shop because Bob didn't have much play space. Then in 2005, I approached Bob to see if he would be interested in making some room and running events. He agreed, and I became his tournament organizer.

Magic soon became their biggest seller and in 2015 Bob asked if I would like to manage the store. The increase in Magic play meant we needed a larger play area. With that in mind, we moved to our current location in 2016. Bob retired and passed the store along to his son in 2018. Since our main source for sports cards was enjoying retirement, we started to focus exclusively on gaming products.

When are you open?
We're open Wednesdays through Sundays.

Knighthood Games

How do you connect with your customers?
Even when I was just organizing events, before I became the manager, I had a lot of the resources for the store already set up. Our main ways to connect are through our Website and our Facebook page.

What gaming experiences do you offer?
In addition to Magic: the Gathering, we host Yu-Gi-Oh! tournaments on Thursdays, a Blood Bowl league, and an active Warhammer community; mostly 40k, but some Age of Sigmar as well. There is also a Pathfinder Society that meets up on Sundays. Of course, we have an open table policy for any games that people want to come in and play.

Tell us about your customers? Who comes to Knighthood Games?
We'll see just about anyone stop in, but being in Cookeville, a good portion of our players are college students attending Tennessee Tech. Still, we recently had a father and son attend our Standard FNM for the first time. They got started on Magic: Arena and wanted to play in person. From what I could tell, they had a great time. Everyone was very accepting and helpful. It was nice to see that sense of fellowship between our players, both old and new.

What Magic experiences do you provide?
We run two Friday Night Magic (FNM) events. We always run a Standard event and rotate weekly between Modern and Commander. One of our judges is also heading up a casual Pauper league. Drafting has started back up, but only on a monthly basis so far. We are working to expand it.

One Magic area that we are blessed with is our Magic Judge community. We have probably one of the largest judge populations per capita in the area, possibly the country. For our store, we have a Level Three judge, seven Level Twos, and I believe five Level Ones. I'm pretty sure it's more than the rest of the state put together. They are our ambassadors and have helped encourage the players, support the store, and in turn, our Magic community.

Do you host any special events?
Nothing outside of the normal Magic pre-releases, but we are set up for the Regional Championship Qualifiers on July 23rd.

What are your most popular formats currently?
Commander is our most popular. You can stop by any day and there will more than likely be a Commander game running. Modern is currently our most popular competitive format, but Standard is coming back. It's not as strong as Modern overall, because it's been difficult with Covid and the various format changes. With Modern, most people already have the cards. Though we did have more players for Standard this past week than we did for Modern, so hopefully that's a good sign.

Magic Players playing Magic!

How did Knighthood Games deal with and adjust to the pandemic?
When Covid first hit, it was tough. Tennessee was completely shut down for April 2020. At that time we didn't have any online presence, so I quickly worked to develop it and we were able to offer curbside services. We couldn't offer any in-store play for months after that.

We were and are very fortunate that we have many loyal customers. People still wanted to play, not just Magic, but anything, board games, D&D, etc. So that kept us going through the dark times.

What are your hot sellers for Magic?
Commander drives most of our sales currently. Everyone's always' looking for staples: Rhystic Study, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, etc.

How did you get started with Magic?
I started playing in 1997 during my freshman year of high school. Blake, Jeremy, and Jesse were a few of my friends that I would play with back in the day. It's been awesome because we all still play here, even after 25 years.

What do you personally enjoy playing?
I used to attend the various Opens, GPs, etc., and play just about anything I could while I was strictly a player. Once I started running the store, I haven't had a lot of time, so my Cube is a fun way to still get in some games. Cube has been my favorite way to play lately. We drafted it last night and had a great time.

What type of Cube do you have?
A Legacy good stuff cube. It's non-powered and has been modified many times, but very fun.

What is your favorite Magic card?
Liliana of the Veil, no doubt.

To finish up, is there anything else you'd like to share?
Running a game store is difficult, don't let anyone tell you differently, but I love what I do. I love providing a place where people can relax and let themselves go a little. It was important for me when I was just a player and I'm happy I can give that to others.

LGS Is Where the Heart Is

I want to thank Eddie for providing us a glimpse into Knighthood Game's Magic life. I hope you enjoyed the visit and look forward to the next! Do you know the story behind your own LGS? Feel free to share in the comments. And if not, maybe now's a good time to get up to speed...

June ’22 Metagame Analysis: Dynamic Stability

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It's the Friday after the metagame update, and so time to dig in and actually explain the data. After all, data is just data. It doesn't mean anything until interpreted, and how it is ultimately interpreted determines its meaning. Thank you for attending my TEDtalk on data analysis, make you stop by the gift shop on your way home.

On a related note, I finally have enough data to start making charts to visually back up the trends I'm discussing. I'm basically winging things and figuring out how this will all work as I go, so if anyone has suggestions, please feel free to leave comments on what you want to see.

The Big Dragon in the Room

For yet another month, UR Murktide was not only the #1 deck in Modern, but it was also a statistical outlier. Which I'm not going to get into as I've beaten that horse to death already. Shame it doesn't work on Dragons. Anyway, what is significant is the effect that this is having on Modern as a whole. Wizards has stated that Murktide's win percentage isn't threatening enough to warrant a ban despite its high metagame share. Which meshes with what I see in the data available to me. However, Murktide's outlier status is affecting the rest of the format.

The Trend That Isn't

It is neither accurate nor fair to directly compare the raw data month to month. There are a million things that affect both population numbers and point allocations such that both fluctuate wildly and without apparent cause. You can only really consider population changes in the long run and even then, only if the underlying conditions have remained comparable. When those conditions are met, you can absolutely judge a Magic format based on attendance for whether there's an impact.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

I can't actually do that currently, which I need to make clear from the get-go. The monthly population numbers in both paper and online have too many variables impacting them to be a reliable measure of Modern's health. Even if that wasn't true, there'd be nothing there anyway. Modern's population has been up and down so much this year that there aren't reliable conclusions to be reached. Instead, we have to dig deeper.

A Metagame Constrained

I believe that while Modern's top decks aren't inherently problematic by the normal metrics, they are constraining what is viable simply by squeezing out other decks. Not in the fairly healthy "no-longer-viable, the metagame has moved on, etc." way. Rather, there's physically less room available for other decks to compete in Modern, especially online.

Consider if you will the top 11 decks from March. I know that feels weird, but Burn, Tron, and Grixis Shadow all had the same population on MTGO. Cutting one to make a more typical 10 would have been unacceptably arbitrary. Then track their metagame share until the last metagame update and see how they collectively perform.

Deck NameMarch %April %May %June %
UR Murktide12.92 14.6513.3714.14
Cascade Crashers7.58 7.55 5.495.20
Hammer Time6.74 10.37.169.36
4-Color Blink6.465.03 10.749.98
Living End6.18 7.326.683.95
Amulet Titan4.78 5.034.53 3.53
Yawgmoth4.21 5.727.165.20
UW Control3.65 1.833.582.70
Burn3.37 4.354.06 6.24
Mono-Green Tron3.37 3.201.682.70
Grixis Shadow3.37 2.291.685.61

I realize that it's difficult to pick anything out from that table of apparently random data. That's what graphs are for. And look, here's one now:

Convenient, isn't it?

This chart is a bit chaotic thanks to all the different decks on it, but looking carefully shows that decks are constantly rising and falling over the course of the quarter year on MTGO. Dynamism and competitive diversity being one of the hallmarks of metagame health, it looks like everything is fine in Modern except for Murktide being far above everything else. This is further backed up when paper is considered:

Deck NameMarch %April %May %June %
UR Murktide10.08 7.6412.7511.88
Cascade Crashers6.52 9.207.165.20
Hammer Time4.15 3.905.306.25
4-Color Blink0.79 5.777.318.28
Living End3.95 3.742.583.59
Amulet Titan6.32 4.993.444.22
Yawgmoth3.36 3.124.735.00
UW Control6.72 5.463.873.43
Burn5.73 4.994.733.28
Mono-Green Tron1.78 2.812.443.28
Grixis Shadow4.74 1.404.153.43

Those are a lot of very different numbers from before, but it isn't apparent how different paper is to MTGO until you see it graphically:

Many lines moving differently.

I'd actually forgotten that Murktide not only wasn't an outlier in April, but that it wasn't even the #1 deck in paper. It got revenge for that slight in May, clearly, but it does show that there's still a lot of movement and change even if there are a few consistent overperformers. Observant readers will cross-check this data with the metagame update and see that many of these decks have changed tiers repeatedly from the starting point in March.

The Catch

And all of that is completely true. However, that's not the whole story here. There is something problematic about these 11 decks that started out the study period as the top 11 decks on MTGO but no longer are. However, that will take another table to spell out:

April %May %June %July %
MTGO62.63 67.2766.13 68.61
Paper54.14 53.0254.3157.84

Yes, that's correct: over 2/3 of MTGO is just 11 decks. Which aren't even still the top 11 deck on MTGO. Paper is not quite so bad, but looking at the trend line, I'm not holding out much hope. And that's not even considering what I'm seeing as the July is coming in.

Consistent upward movement is worrying.

Which brings me to the earlier point: when the top decks are physically taking up most of the metagame, how can anything else make it in? In a more dynamic metagame, decks rising and falling unevenly leaves plenty of percentage laying around for new decks to take. A more static one becomes exclusionary.

A Frustrating Problem

If this trend toward consolidation is in fact as worrying as I posit, then it is also a very frustrating one. There is no one thing that is propelling this metagame that I can point to as the cause and therefore no single solution that I can propose. I know that many will simply blame Modern Horizons 2's power level as the perpetrator. UR Murktide can plausibly be seen as Modern Horizons 2 tribal, after all.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

However, this is not merely reductive but incorrect. Yes, the Horizons sets have a sufficiently high power level as to define Modern, which is probably what Wizards intended. And yes, it is high enough that it's unlikely that anything from Standard-legal sets will disturb this equilibrium without proving insanely broken.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

However, consider again that the Horizons tribal deck doesn't have a great win/loss record! Or note that neither Burn nor Tron have benefitted from any Horizons cards yet remain metagame threats. Or that Cascade Crashers, another Horizons tribal deck (I'd say moreso than Murktide), is highly volatile and falls in and out of Tier 1 seemingly at random. The power of Modern Horizons is certainly impacting Modern, but it isn't the only factor at play.

The Key

To bang that drum again, this is a metagame being defined by players playing what they want to play! The top decks in my updates are very popular and place consistently, but they don't win tournaments more than other decks. I don't think Murktide's actually won anything large in over a month. Its place in the metagame is not justified by performance or power, but popularity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

Murktide is the poster child for this phenomenon, but the same applies to Omnath, Locus of Creation decks. They don't actually win that often, and rarely show up at all in smaller events. However, players that play in larger tournaments choose the 4-Color piles of every description in very high numbers because they think it will give them an edge. Maybe it does on an individual level, but in aggregate they're not doing any better than anyone else.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

The fact that players are playing decks like this and others are playing decks to counter them (Burn has a very good Blink matchup, for example) is what is actually driving the metagame. And with players now choosing to play their respective favorite decks, I doubt that there will be much movement in coming months. Unless Wizards decides that Murktide's metagame share needs adjusting.

The Divergence

One other thing to note is how different the paper and MTGO actually are. The end result isn't that different, it's true, but the details do show how different the two really are. I noticed this looking at the Murktide shares:

...that a fish?

This is typical of all the decks I've been looking at. They rise and fall on paper and MTGO with no rhyme or rhythm in relation to each other. Such that I can't possibly prognosticate the specifics of where Modern will be when I write the next of these analysis articles. Though it is a safe assumption that Murktide will still be an outlier followed by some combination of 4-Color Blink and Hammer Time. That's how it's been so far, and I don't think that anything in the metagame will change that.

Is There Opportunity Here?

As always, we'll end with where the Modern card market is headed. And... well, you have already picked up and/or moved all the MH2 cards you were going to, right? The evidence of the Traders Tools shows that most Modern staples prices have stabilized and, in many cases, have fallen from the same time last year. The simple fact is that there is downward pressure in Modern thanks to the aforementioned deck stability. Many players now have the deck they intend to play for the foreseeable future, plus or minus some flex slots, and won't be purchasing many cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ledger Shredder

Newer and non-MH2 cards are exceptions thanks to pressure from Standard and Pioneer so there may be opportunity there. However, if your intent was to profit from Modern exclusives, I have bad news. And it won't be getting better in the short term. The reprints from Double Masters 2 are increasing general supply enough for there to increase the downward price pressure (outside of collectors) and with Pioneer being the competitive focus for the moment, don't expect demand to push prices up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wrenn and Six

Long-term that could certainly change if Modern is the next qualifier season or there are many other large events. Those developments might present an opportunity to buy up inventory and wait for prices to rise. But I must caution that you never know what Wizards will do. They banned a card in a format that wasn't supposed to have bannings this week, so it's quite possible for them to turn around and ban something from Modern too. There's no way to know, nor any way to know how it will impact prices.

Stability Feels Weird

After so long of Modern constantly churning, it feels wrong for Modern to be predictable and stable. Whether it's actually good for players or not, I have no clue. It's been so long that I don't know what to think. Hopefully by this time next month I'll have a better idea.

How I Learned To Love The Meta

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Over the long weekend, I had the opportunity to meet a fellow Magic player! They have been playing on and off since around 2000, so they are most certainly not new to the game. When I asked them what formats they played they mentioned that they would like to play Standard competitively and stay up to date with the game but it's just too costly. I dug into that statement a little deeper and asked if they were interested in Commander or budget options for competitive.

Their Response Surprised Me

Essentially, they only wanted to play if they had access to perceived top meta cards and the expense of such an idea dissuaded them from playing. I was floored. Not only am I a big advocate of budget cards I think that deck expression and counter meta picks can be strong for competitive play.

This player, however, perceived they were at such a huge disadvantage that sitting down to play did not even make sense. I thought back and just a few weeks earlier I was talking to some newer players and they essentially said the same thing. They felt that without certain, key meta cards, their decks were hopelessly outclassed and there was no point to playing. As the saying goes, "perception is reality." The question then becomes is it possible to alter such a perception?

This Is NOT Another Budget Article

While I am going to mention card value and show some examples of options at different price points the primary consideration here is showcasing relative strength. Cards have dollar value not only for power but also for a wide variety of outside factors like low print runs, unique artwork, and card condition. Yes, many powerful meta cards tend to be higher dollar value but only when they have somewhat limited print runs. In the EDREC top 100, you can see a huge amount of the most played cards are priced at $1 or less. Does that make these cards any less powerful, competitive, meta, or playable? No.

Your Local Meta Is Unique

The beauty of Magic since Alpha has been, in a word, interaction. If everyone in your local group plays blue then Tsunami and Carpet of Flowers are going to be exceptionally powerful. If no one plays blue at all then those cards are absolute duds. Just because Carpet has some monetary value to it does not make it a superior card. Just because Tsunami is only worth pennies does not make it unplayable. Your local meta is responsible for the relative power of these cards and your local meta is entirely unique.

If everyone is playing Dockside Extortionist and you don't want to play that card or cannot afford to play that card, then, why not play cards that beat it? Hushwing Gryff and Hushbringer do so rather nicely. Not playing white? Green offers compelling cards in Viridian Revel and Titania's Song. There's always Torpor Orb for any deck. Need I mention blue with a laundry list of counterspells or Stifle effects? All of these cards cost less money and many of them are the same two mana or less than Extortionist.

Fancy Lands You've Got There

A very common complaint along the same lines as above is about the expensive mana bases that competitive Commander in particular employs. The fact is if you feel you absolutely must have the same lands as your opponent's to stand a chance, but cannot acquire them, can you even compete? Well, why not play cards that absolutely hose players that rely on their nonbasic lands? The goal in competitive is to win, right? So many three-color-plus decks cannot play Magic if all their lands are Mountains. The monetary and mana cost of a slew of cards that do exactly this is minimal while their impact is high.

If you are part of a four-player pod merely copying what two of the other three players are doing you are also at risk of eating a Blood Moon effect and potentially being shut out. The more a local meta rewards a greedy mana base, the more someone should come in and counter that meta with large amounts of land hate. There's always a ratio between risk and reward. It is up to the playerbase to discover and take advantage of weaknesses in strategies, not just copy what everyone else is doing and hope you draw better.

Is This The Part Where I Mention Stax?

I've written a bit about Stax before. Some things I did not speak about enough were player population, deck distribution, and meta trends. I mentioned an overall trend towards greedier decks and going ever bigger than the next player. What I did not mention is that the more a meta pushes into greed, the more attractive Stax becomes. If your primary aim is playing to win, then chasing after cards that are played just because they are meta is not necessarily a winning move. In this case, finding cards that can shut down the meta is potentially a far more optimal choice on several levels.

True Degeneracy As Another Option

Degenerate decks are a gambit, one that should win very infrequently in a competitive setting. However, degenerate decks punish greed and take advantage of surprise. If everyone in your local meta is busy following the same trends, it's possible every once in a while to steal wins. Some nice side effects of these decks are the fact that they are generally easy to play, and also extremely inexpensive. Changing decks for competitive events can be costly so a deck that can win as early as turn three that costs less than one chase card is a nice option to have at your disposal. Furthermore, simple decks do not require a lot of practice to pilot perfectly.

This One Time At A Tournament, A Story by Beardymagics

The date is circa 1995. The place? A proto-typical Local Game Store (LGS) in Connecticut called The Epic. I'm playing a deck archetype that came to be known as Suiblack with Dark Ritual, Hypnotic Specter, Hymn to Tourach and Necropotence. I quickly took three match wins by accelerating out either hand destruction, card draw, or an enchanted-up creature. I got into the semi-finals, won the die roll, kept an awesome starting hand, and proceeded to play Swamp Dark Ritual, Hypnotic Specter.

What Beats Turn One Specter? Turn One Removal

My opponent played a beta badlands and Lightning Bolt'ed my Specter. I dropped another Swamp and cast a Black Knight. My opponent Bolted that one as well. I played a third swamp and another Specter. My opponent? Black Lotus, Ancestral Recall, Mox Jet, Sinkhole, Lightning Bolt. A few turns later I had no lands in play and my opponent had a full grip of cards and multiple dual lands and Moxen in play.

In game two, I came out strong with a double Dark Ritual into a Specter and Knight. My opponent? Swords to Plowshares and Bolt. A few cards later and I was again landless and drawing dead. While I was disappointed to not win the event I showed up with something that performed well and had a good chance to win games. I had no power nine cards and Necropotence was probably the most expensive card in my deck. I still remember to this day, though, what my opponent said to me.

"You Got This Far With That?"

It wasn't what my opponent said, it was how they said it. The disdain in their voice was palpable. They could not believe that my deck could or should top four in a field of 40 or so players. It was abundantly clear that there were much more powerful cards that existed at the time. While those cards were out of reach for me as a player because of their price, I never let that distract me from my goal of trying to win.

Yes, Mox Jet and Black Lotus would have made my deck stronger. I would have obviously played power had I owned it. Were those cards absolutely essential to my game plan, strategy, or the only way I could win? No. Would I have played the exact deck or archetype my opponent played? Definitely not. Necropotence is and was a very good card and they were not playing it. Furthermore, the Suiblack archetype sliced through everyone else I faced. Did other players at this event have power? They sure did, and I stomped some of them.

Improving At Magic Is More Than Copying Decklists

Unless you're playing Arena, that is. Wizards is just trying to be helpful but my first take was a sarcastic one. Arena is a great example as it has its own unique metagame and banned list. The best cards for your paper games will certainly be much more unique. Sure you can look at other decks and get inspiration and information but blindly copying a decklist from a website, a stream, or a video on YouTube is unlikely to solve your local meta. At worst it might feed the perception that you need specific cards or you can't even play. It's simply not true and that kind of thinking is not to your advantage.

In Closing, Almost Every Card Is Playable

Cards do not exist in a vacuum. They exist within a matrix of interaction. You'd be surprised how many cards are competitive beyond being merely playable. It's your goal as a player to figure out what cards truly rise to the top, when to take bigger risks, and when to bring unexpected strategies to the table. When you are defining the metagame instead of chasing after it, you will see cards in a new light. Oh, and you'll win more games too!

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Joe Mauri

Joe has been an avid MTG player and collector since the summer of 1994 when he started his collection with a booster box of Revised. Millions of cards later he still enjoys tapping lands and slinging spells at the kitchen table, LGS, or digital Arena. Commander followed by Draft are his favorite formats, but, he absolutely loves tournaments with unique build restrictions and alternate rules. A lover of all things feline, he currently resides with no less than five majestic creatures who are never allowed anywhere near his cards. When not Gathering the Magic, Joe loves streaming a variety of games on Twitch(https://www.twitch.tv/beardymagics) both card and other.

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You Best Have Dragons: Pre-2X2 Pickups

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“If you want to conquer the world, you best have dragons.”
― George R.R. Martin, A Dance with Dragons

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon Tempest
There was an error retrieving a chart for Zirilan of the Claw
There was an error retrieving a chart for The Ur-Dragon

While many people find Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate (CLB) to be relatively underwhelming, it's important to note that its time in the spotlight was quickly overshadowed by the ridiculousness that is Double Masters 2022 (2X2). As a brief aside, I expect CLB to likely have underwhelming sales thanks to the playerbase likely dumping all their expendable income into 2X2, which means any hit cards from CLB will be worth a good bit of money.

But that isn't the actual subject of today's focus. As shown by the graphs above, Dragon-themed cards have been spiking the past few weeks thanks to the powerful mythic Dragon cycle from CLB. While it seems the most obvious, low-hanging fruit has been hit; there are still plenty of decent prospects remaining, and that is what we will be looking at today.

While I don't expect all players to flock to The Ur-Dragon, the fact that it allows you to play all five colors and thus abuse all five of the new mythic CLB dragons makes me think a lot of players will. So let's look at the top commander cards and see what hidden gems haven't jumped yet.

Diamonds in the Rough

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crux of Fate

One-sided board wipes are a powerful effect, and Wizards tends to slap on restrictions to them; either they have a very high mana cost like Plague Wind or limitations you have to build around like Fell the Mighty. In this case we clearly have a build-around Wrath; given it fits perfectly into a Dragon-themed deck, it seems like an obvious auto-include.

Crux has one major printing in Fate Reforged and then additional reprints in Commander 2017 (the same deck that contained The Ur-Dragon) and as a Mystical Archive in Strixhaven. Copies are sitting around $2 and if a card like Dragon Tempest which was reprinted at uncommon Iconic Masters can reach $8+, it seems logical that Crux of Fate could at least hit $4.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temur Ascendancy

This card has already started moving upwards a bit, but it likely still has room to grow. It is important to remember that thanks to the allied fetchland reprint in Khans of Tarkir, a lot of product was opened, so the rares in the set have a pretty low ceiling. That being said, the biggest issue with the CLB Dragons is that they all have to attack to gain any value and none of haste to start with, so providing haste is critical to maximizing their benefits and it doesn't hurt that almost every Dragon in the deck will also draw a card off Temur Ascendancy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund

The original Double Masters printing of this card slashed its price by almost 80%. However, that reprint was also at mythic rarity, so additional supply was likely far less than one might expect even when accounting for the 2 rares/mythics per pack of the set. As Karrthus also provides haste and in fun cases can really nail opponents with Dragons themselves, this seems like another card that will make the cut in most Dragon-themed commander decks and could easily double up to $10.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvia Brightspear

It's important to notice that the CLB Dragons all trigger upon dealing combat damage, so giving them double strike will cause two triggers per combat phase. There are definitely a fair number of cards that provide double strike to your creatures. However, they tend to cost more than 3 mana (see Berserkers' Onslaught), and Dragon decks already tend to have a higher-than-average mana value as most dragons are bigger expensive creatures. This card has a single printing in Battlebond, so should it become popular it could easily be a $5+ card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonspeaker Shaman

Admittedly this card has more printings than I generally like for speculation targets, but outside of the original one they were all in supplementary products. Currently all copies are generally sitting in the $0.5-$1.5 range. This was a $4+ dollar card for several years prior to the glut of reprints, and while it may be difficult to return to that value, it does belong in pretty much every single Dragon-themed deck thanks to the aforementioned high mana values present in those decks.

Dragonic Horde

I have found that casual Commander-driven card spikes tend to cascade over a longer period of time than competitive ones, allowing speculators to dig into potential opportunities at their own pace. While all of these specs may not come to fruition, I will be very surprised if at least a couple don't increase by a good bit. Let's honor the Dragon and get to hoarding!

Magical Creatures: Kithkin and Nightstalkers

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Last week we kicked off Magical Creatures, a series dealing with the unique living beings that were created specifically for this game. We began with the first set to ever introduce creature types that are unique to this franchise, namely Antiquities.

As we continue in chronological order, today's instalment turns to Legends, which introduced two new types of creatures to the world. But first, let's start with a quick overview on this beloved expansion set, which was released in June 1994.

The Legend of Legends

The third set in Magic, Legends is nowadays among the most sought-after expansions in this game. It contains an astonishing number of valuable cards. To mention a few: The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale; Chains of Mephistopheles; Moat; Eureka. It was also the first set to be sold in 15-card booster packs rather than starter decks.

Some valuable cards from Legends

Apart from its monetary value, Legends was crucial from a game development perspective. Both multicolored cards and the Legend creature type were introduced for the first time. Legends were meant to be special, unique permanents representing famous characters or places. Many years later, with Champions of Kamigawa (2004), the creature type "Legend" would become the supertype "Legendary," with an adjustment of the ruling.

Legends heralded almost 70 new creature types. Funnily enough, most of them were altered or removed later on. However, among all these types (including Bat, Kobold, Phoenix and Yeti), only two were created specifically for the Magic franchise.

Whereas Tetravites are colorless and Atogs appear equally in each color, these two types are mostly linked to a single respective color: white and black. Those types are Kithkin and Nightstalker.

The Origin of Kithkin

Kithkin, despite only achieving fame in 2007 with Lorwyn, were in fact first conceived in 1994, with the expansion Legends. Only one creature with this type existed back then: Amrou Kithkin. What is a Kithkin? And what is Amrou? These questions must have haunted several Magic players of the time, as neither of these answers were given. Today, we know Amrou Haven to be the homeland of the Kithkin, and it was located in the biggest of Dominaria's continents, called Jamuraa.

But what about the term "Kithkin?" We know now that these creatures were originally meant to be named "Hobbits." However, in order to avoid issues with the rights-holders of Tolkien's legacy, Wizards opted for this brand-new word. The term comes from the expression "kith and kin," which is ancient English for "friends and family." According to Brady Dommermuth, Magic Creative Director, "The Kithkin are a 'near-human,' white-aligned race who tend to have a strong sense of community, simplicity, and forthrightness."

Kithkin before Lorwyn

After that single creature, no more Kithkin saw print for twelve years. And even when Time Spiral came out in 2006, only a couple more were created. You might remember Amrou Scout and Amrou Seekers, both mentioning the original home of Kithkin. Finally, with Future Sight (2007), it was time for Goldmeadow Lookout, a timeshifted card from the future.

The first two cards were more Rebels than Kithkin, and they were only conceived to generate hype for the following block. Even more so for Goldmeadow Lookout, which was able to generate tokens named Goldmeadow Harrier, a card that didn't even exist yet but would be printed a few months later.

A New Era for Kithkin

Well, so much for Kithkin in the pre-Lorwyn era. Only now do things get interesting, as the two mini-blocks of Lorwyn and Shadowmoor featured over 50 new creatures with the Kithkin type. And they were now viable for competitive play, too!

Lorwyn, the 43rd expansion set of Magic, was the first of four sets relying heavily on the tribal theme. The last time this happened was back in 2002, with the Onslaught block. This time, however, the release of new sets was carefully planned to coincide with the grand creature type update discussed at the beginning of this series.

In that short period of time when Kithkin were a thing, they were huge. Many competitive lists were played in Lorwyn Block and Standard tournaments, relying on the tribe's speed and consistency. That deck was able to quickly win the race, with the help of fast creatures such as Knight of Meadowgrain, Wizened Cenn and Goldmeadow Stalwart.

Some key cards for the Kithkin deck

And it was also able to play some tricks in the late game thanks to Windbrisk Heights, Thistledown Liege and Mirrorweave. In 2008, Kithkin even made its way into the Top 8 at Worlds, piloted by Estonian player Hannes Kerem!

But wait, no more Kithkin were created after Lorwyn, although almost 15 years have already passed. How come? Apparently, they weren't particularly beloved. According to Mark Rosewater, market research showed that they were actually considered to be creepy! What do you think?

Night-Stalker or Nightstalker?

Nightstalkers too were born in Legends, but only existed on a single card for a while. Shimian Night Stalker's type was that of "Night-Stalker." The same was true for some more Stalkers printed in Mirage.

Later on, with the advent of Portal: Second Age (1998), others came out without the hyphen. The confusion was only resolved with (you guessed right) the grand creature type update.

The first Night-Stalkers

Today, 13 different Nighstalkers exist, and none of them is particularly rare or useful for competitive play. Regardless, they remain a very special kind of creature, and I'm especially fond of the original card, Shimian Night Stalker. We have analyzed it in more detail during my previous series, as its flavor text deserved special attention. If you missed it, check out my piece on horror-themed quotations from the set Legends.

What about their nature? As you might guess from their name, Nightstalkers only come in black. They are dark, malevolent creatures of the night. Despite their semi-humanoid shape, they are totally not human, as you can see from their long limbs and sharp teeth.

New Nighstalkers from Portal: Second Age

Portal: Second Age, as well as changing the spelling of this creature type, contained a bunch of new Nighstalkers. Seven, to be more precise. Again, nothing extraordinary when it comes to the power level, but at least these creatures became more consistent.

First of all, each Nightstalker printed in this set got the word "Nightstalker" in its name, making it easier for new players to see the pattern. I'm not saying it would have been difficult otherwise (you can't miss those looks) but remember that it was a set for beginners.

More Nightstalkers (and easier to spot)

Not only that, they also had abilities closely linked to the color black, making it even clearer that they are very black creatures. For instance, Abyssal Nightstalker and Brutal Nightstalker make your opponent discard cards. Predatory Nightstalker makes them sacrifice a creature, and Raiding Nightstalker and Prowling Nightstalker have typically black evasive abilities.

A Shared Fate

In this piece and in the last one, we mainly dealt with two important creature types: Atog and Kithkin. Both were types created in a certain set, then was left alone for a while. Until popping up again a few years later and getting an enlarged family.

There are also some differences, of course. Atogs are not as numerous as Kithkin, and yet they were printed in more sets. In both cases, though, we haven't seen a new one for a while. Do you think they might return again in the future? What other creatures would you like to see again?

Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, and stay tuned for the next piece! We are going to move to a new expansion set, which back in 1994 introduced a whopping four new creature types unique to Magic....

Adam Plays Magic: Chromatic Cube Draft

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What's a Cube?

Cube on Magic Arena is back and better than ever! For those unfamiliar, Cube is a curated, draftable, and phantom limited format—essentially a customized, often high-power limited set where the players don't keep the cards.

Cubes can be based around any concept, be it rarity (such as Pauper cube), setting (like sets featuring the plane of Ravnica), or just a collection of personal favorite cards and archetypes. This most recent incarnation, Chromatic Cube, emphasizes flexible mana costs and a lot of fixing. Whereas a traditional limited environment may only support two- and three-color decks, it's not uncommon to see all five colors represented in a single deck.

The Volume of a Cube is V=a3

Chromatic Cube features ten macro-archetypes: UW Blink, RB Sacrifice, RG Stompy, GW Tokens, WB Reanimator, UR Storm, BG Death, RW Magecraft, UG Lands, Five-Color Value. More detail on these (as well as the full cube list) can be found directly on the Wizards of the Coast website. While the archetypes exist to provide synergy and structure, it's exceptionally common for them to bleed into neighboring color pairs.

For example, the UW Blink archetype benefits greatly from dipping into green for Springbloom Druid and even black for Yarok, the Desecrated. Similarly, The GW tokens deck benefits from many of the red treasure token generators like Magda, the Brazen Outlaw and Captain Lannery Storm, especially to ramp to and pay off Divine Visitation and Parallel Lives. This synergy is even hinted at in the mana cost of Jinnie Fay, Jetmir's Second.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jinnie Fay, Jetmir's Second

As mentioned above, the fixing in Chromatic Cube is particularly great with 65 dual lands, all 10 tri lands, and flexible five-color lands like Temple of the Dragon Queen. There's even Field of the Dead to pay off drafters that prioritize good mana. Fixing is even further subsidized via treasure generators like Big Score, Goldspan Dragon and mana dorks like Paradise Druid. Ultimately, drafters are incentivized to shoot for the moon, picking the most above-rate cards they can assemble.

Wait, What Does That Do?

Notably, Chromatic Cube takes full advantage of the Arena client and includes many digital-only cards designed for the Alchemy format. Some cards received buffs, like Shessra, Death's Whisper going up from three toughness to four. Others were nerfed, like Hullbreaker Horror losing its "can't be countered" text.

Several cards, however, are entirely new designs that only exist in the digital space, and they're extremely potent threats. Nightclub Bouncer is essentially a Venser, Shaper Savant that makes whatever it returns cost an additional mana to recast, wrecking havoc on the opponent's curve. It works exceptionally well with the blink support readily available in the cube. Back Alley Gardener is a three-mana 3/4 that tutors a random land from the deck into play when you cast your first creature each turn. Its above-rate body stabilizes the board and the repeatable ramp snowballs quickly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hullbreaker Horror

Each color in the cube has some number of spells unique to (or modified for) the digital play experience. It's strongly recommended first-time drafters make sure they triple check the fine print as not everything is going to be as they remember.

Did I Do That?

Generally speaking, this cube pays off decks geared toward a midrange strategy. Removal is plentiful and while there are some aggressive creatures like Robber of the Rich, there isn't a critical mass to reliably dispatch opponents before their strategies take shape.

As such, it's better to prioritize opportunities for card advantage. Things that put multiple permanents into play such as Trostani Discordant, enters-the-battlefield abilities like Omnath, Locus of Creation, and resistant-to-disruption cards like Falco Spara, Pactweaver are ideal ways to out-grind opponent. Quite a few cards in the cube can recur themselves from the graveyard like Tenacious Underdog and Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath which are also very desirable.

Check out my deck list and video below from one of my recent cube runs!

Draft Deck

Creatures

1 Captain Sisay
1 Alloy Myr
1 Vizier of the Menagerie
1 Tatyova, Benthic Druid
1 Trostani Discordant
1 Hydroid Krasis
1 Paradise Druid
1 Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves
1 Kenrith, the Returned King
1 Springbloom Druid
1 Ashaya, Soul of the Wild
1 Falco Spara, Pactweaver
1 Back-Alley Gardener
1 A-Omnath, Locus of Creation

Planeswalkers

1 The Wandering Emperor
1 Vivien on the Hunt

Spells

1 Finale of Devastation
1 Harrow
1 Supreme Will
1 Abrade

Artifacts

1 Reckoner Bankbuster
1 Coldsteel Heart

Enchantments

1 Mirari's Wake

Lands

1 Forest
3 Plains
2 Island
3 Mountain
1 Temple Garden
1 Hinterland Harbor
1 Blooming Marsh
1 Branchloft Pathway
1 Needleverge Pathway
1 Darkbore Pathway
1 Spara's Headquarters
1 Dreamroot Cascade

Sideboard

1 Mikaeus, the Lunarch
1 The Eldest Reborn
1 Plaguecrafter
1 Blood for Bones
1 Chulane, Teller of Tales
1 Fiend Artisan
1 Kels, Fight Fixer
1 Glasspool Mimic
1 Territorial Kavu
1 Cathar Commando
1 Triskaidekaphile
1 Jaxis, the Troublemaker
1 Workshop Warchief
1 Cabaretti Revels

End Step

I'm having a ton of fun with Chromatic Cube. As of the time of writing, I'm floating around a 70% win rate with a 56-24 record in matches. Ten drafts in and four trophies so far, with hopefully several more on the horizon. If you want to see me post my successful builds, you can check them out on Twitter @AdamECohen. I'll see you all next week!

June ’22 Metagame Update: Stability Achieved

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It's a new month, and that means a new Modern metagame update. As per the usual, the metagame has not moved much. I've tipped my hand quite expertly with the title, but I'd say that Modern is now in its most stable period since Splinter Twin was banned. Whether or not that's a good thing is a matter of opinion, but it is a considerable change from what Modern was pre-pandemic. Which also means that it is getting more complicated to assess Modern's health.

Persistent Outliers

As has been the case since Lurrus of the Dream-Den was banned, there are statistical outliers this month. And yes, UR Murktide is the headline outlier. To the extent that it continues to be an outlier above the other outliers. This is getting rather tedious. And concerning.

As I say every month, Murktide doesn't feel like a Tier 0 deck. It doesn't win events yet remains insanely popular. That Modern has a clear most popular deck isn't a problem. One deck taking up so much room that no innovation or churn is possible is problematic. Hard to say if that's the case, yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Murktide is joined by some familiar faces this month. 4-Color Blink once again is an outlier in both paper and MTGO. Modern is quickly becoming predictable this way. Hammer Time was an outlier on MTGO as well, though not in paper. The fact that the non-Murktide outliers change month to month is encouraging but only by proximity to the giant dragon in the room.

As always, the outliers are excluded from the actual statistical analysis. They’re reported in their correct place on the metagame chart.

June MTGO Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce in a given month. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list. Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks which perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least 2 standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks. 

The MTGO Population Data

In June the adjusted average population was 5.08 setting the Tier 3 cutoff at 5 decks, because that's too close to 5 to round up to 6. It also continues the trend of very low averages thanks to the removal of the outliers from the calculations. Tier 3 therefore begins with decks posting 5 results. The STdev was 7.00, which means that means Tier 3 runs to 12 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then next whole number for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 13 results and runs to 20. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 21 decks are required. Which is all below the norm for pre-Lurrus-ban Modern. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

To recap, January had 502 decks, February had 436 decks, and March only hit 356, April was up to 437, May had 419 total decks on MTGO. June has the highest population since January with 481 decks. That is almost certainly down to the MTGO 20th Anniversary event. That said, it should have been higher. Wizards did not report decklists from the event qualifier tournaments. I don't know why, but it ensured that June merely approached January. 23 unique decks out of 66 total made the June tier list. 

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide6814.14
4-Color Blink489.98
Hammer Time459.36
Burn306.24
Grixis Shadow275.61
Yawgmoth255.20
Cascade Crashers255.20
Tier 2
Living End193.95
Amulet Titan173.53
4-Color Control132.70
UW Control132.70
Mono-Green Tron132.70
Tier 3
Prison Tron102.08
Affinity81.66
Wishshift81.66
Rakdos Rock71.45
Jund Saga71.45
4-Color Creativity61.25
4-Color Vivien61.25
Glimpse Combo61.25
Belcher51.04
4-Color Bring to Light51.04

The way that Murktide outstrips the field is just absurd. 38 results separate it and Burn, the highest scoring non-outlier deck. However, once past the troubling decks, interesting things are brewing. Grixis Shadow has rocketed out of Tier 3 to being right on Burn's heels. Prison Tron, a Karn, the Great Creator lockpiece-toolbox deck, exploded onto the scene. I don't expect it to last as decks like this never do, but it is reassuring for unknown decks to make the tier list.

The Paper Population Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tiers, just with different data. More paper events are reported each month, but they rarely report more than the Top 8 (sometimes less). However, that doesn't mean that the overall population is lower. Indeed, paper Modern is far more popular than online, and the data reflects this fact. There were 640 decks in the data, representing 89 unique decks. Paper is consistently more popular and more diverse than the online metagame, though it was down this month. There weren't any Star City events in June, which is a major reason.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

Paper's adjusted average decks were 5.87, meaning the starting point is 6 decks. It increasingly looks like paper will always have a higher average than MTGO. The STDev is 8.27, so Tier 3 runs from 6 to 15 decks. Tier 2 begins with 16 decks and runs to 25, and Tier 1 requires 26 decks. It will take most of the year to know whether these are indicative of what paper Modern "should" look like. 26 decks made the paper population tier, and again, it's looking like paper's size should always be higher than online's especially since it always represents a larger and more diverse metagame. 

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide7611.88
4-Color Blink538.28
Hammer Time406.25
Cascade Crashers375.20
Yawgmoth325.00
Amulet Titan274.22
Tier 2
Living End233.59
Grixis Shadow223.43
UW Control223.43
Burn213.28
Mono-Green Tron213.28
Tier 3
Merfolk152.34
Affinity152.34
Jund132.03
Esper Reanimator111.72
Rakdos Rock111.72
Tribal Elementals101.56
Izzet Prowess91.41
Death and Taxes81.25
Ponza71.09
Mono-Red Prowess71.09
Glimpse Combo71.09
Manufactor Combo71.09
4-Color Control60.94
Domain Zoo60.94
Eldrazi Tron60.94
Humans60.94

Murktide's outlier status is negligibly better in paper than online. It outstrips the first non-outlier by only 36 results not 38. I can tell myself that it's fine, Murktide's win rate is mediocre, but this still doesn't feel good.

In a change from previous months, paper's Tier 1 is only one deck different than MTGO's. Usually, paper has far more decks than online. I assume that this is a sign of the overall metagame falling into line and agreeing on the state of Modern, but there's no way to know for certain.

Also, to all the paper Merfolk players: I see you. I appreciate you. Swim strong.

June Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential. 

The MTGO Power Tiers

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There was only one 4 point event in May and no 5 pointers. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Death's Shadow

As with the population numbers, points in June were up from May, from 738 to 787. I'd have thought they'd be much higher than they ended up being, but that's Wizards' reporting policies for you. There were some non-Wizards MTGO events that happened in June but as of when I did the stats work they hadn't reported the events as closed.

The adjusted average points were 8.14. Therefore 9 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 11.62, which is relatively normal. And remarkably similar to April’s stats. Thus add 12 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 20 points. Tier 2 starts with 21 points and runs to 33. Tier 1 requires at least 34 points. There was some movement between tiers, but the composition is the same as for population.

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide11915.12
4-Color Blink8410.67
Hammer Time749.40
Grixis Shadow496.23
Burn465.84
Yawgmoth405.08
Cascade Crashers354.45
Living End354.45
Tier 2
Amulet Titan273.43
4-Color Control253.18
UW Control243.05
Tier 3
Mono-Green Tron202.54
Prison Tron182.29
Wishshift141.78
Jund Saga131.65
Rakdos Rock121.52
Belcher101.27
4-Color Vivien91.14
4-Color Bring to Light91.14
Affinity81.02
4-Color Creativity81.02
Glimpse Combo81.02

The outlier gap always gets worse when I move to the point totals. The decks that end up in outlier country tend to show up in absurd numbers in the Challenges and larger events that award the most points. Which is ironic considering they don't actually win the things but cutting through the field to put large numbers in contention is the mark of a very strong deck.

The Paper Power Tiers

Unlike with population, the paper power data works differently than the equivalent MTGO data. The data reported is usually limited to Top 8 lists, even for big events. Not that I know how big most events are, that doesn't always get reported. In other cases, decks are missing. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award and there are data gaps. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wrenn and Six

Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results. Based on what I've seen actually being reported and what I can expect to be reported in the foreseeable future, I'm updating how points are awarded. For events that don't report their starting populations or are under 50 players, I'm giving out 1 point. 51-300 players gets 2 points. 301 and above will get 3 points. I choose these levels based on the rarity of events over 300 compared to 100-200 and the fact that events under 300 tend to be local events in large cities. It feels like it should be 300 for truly unique events, despite there being no Grand Prix yet. I am open to reevaluating the point awards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

There were a number of events awarding 2 points in April, and one 3-point event. I awarded at total of 832 points in May. 

The adjusted average points were 7.65. This sets the cutoff at 8 decks. The STDev was 11.40, thus add 12 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 20 points. Tier 2 starts with 21 points and runs to 33. Tier 1 requires at least 34 points. The limits are a bit higher than in May but not by much. There was a lot of movement between tiers this time, and three decks fell off Tier 3: Ponza, Domain Zoo, and Humans. Two decks rose to take their place: 4-Color Bring to Light and UW Urza.

Deck NameTotal # Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide10312.09
4-Color Blink839.74
Hammer Time627.28
Cascade Crashers485.63
Yawgmoth424.93
Amulet Titan374.34
Living End354.11
Tier 2
UW Control273.17
Grixis Shadow263.05
Burn263.05
Mono-Green Tron263.05
Tier 3
Affinity202.35
Jund182.11
Merfolk172.00
Tribal Elementals172.00
Esper Reanimator161.88
Rakdos Rock131.53
Death and Taxes101.17
Mono-Red Prowess101.17
4-Color Control101.17
Izzet Prowess91.06
4-Color Bring to Light91.06
UW Urza91.06
Glimpse Combo80.94
Manufactor Combo80.94
Eldrazi Tron80.94

Another month, another odd conincidence: Paper and MTGO have the same tier-cutoffs. That's never happened before. It means nothing, but it's interesting.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual. Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Puresteel Paladin

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results. However, as a general rule, decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa. How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a decks position on the power tiers are. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good. 

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite. 

I'll begin with the average for MTGO: 

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier
Belcher2.003
4-Color Control1.922
Jund Saga1.863
Living End1.851
UW Control1.852
Grixis Shadow1.811
Prison Tron1.803
4-Color Bring to Light1.803
UR Murktide1.751
4-Color Blink1.751
Wishshift1.753
Rakdos Rock1.713
Hammer Time1.641
Yawgmoth1.601
Amulet Titan1.592
Mono-Green Tron1.543
Burn1.531
Baseline1.51
4-Color Vivien1.503
Cascade Crashers1.401
4-Color Creativity1.333
Glimpse Combo1.333
Affinity1.003

Well done, Living End; you're the best performing Tier 1 deck on MTGO. For the second month in a row. Though not by as much as you were in May. Are people slowly learning to pack more hate?

Onto the paper averages:

Deck NameAverage PowerPower Tier
UW Urza2.253
4-Color Bring to Light1.803
Tribal Elementals1.703
4-Color Control1.673
4-Color Blink1.571
Hammer Time1.551
Living End1.521
Esper Reanimator1.453
Mono-Red Prowess1.433
Jund1.383
Amulet Titan1.371
UR Murktide1.351
Affinity1.333
Eldrazi Tron1.333
Yawgmoth1.311
Cascade Crashers1.301
Baseline1.27
Death and Taxes1.253
Burn1.242
Mono-Green Tron1.242
UW Control1.232
Grixis Shadow1.182
Rakdos Rock1.183
Glimpse Combo1.143
Manufactor Combo1.143
Merfolk1.133
Izzet Prowess1.003

At least there's some change in paper. 4-Color Blink replaced Amulet Titan as the best performing Tier 1 deck in paper Modern this June. Which isn't really a good thing since it's an outlier and the performance metrics suggest it's being underplayed. We'll see how it plays out.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without the big paper events. I tried. So, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, the Great Creator

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug; it's a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes. 

Deck NamePaper Population TierPaper Power TierPaper Average TierMTGO Population TierMTGO Power TierMTGO Average TierOverall Tier
UR Murktide111.00111.001.00
4-Color Blink111.00111.001.00
Hammer Time111.00111.001.00
Yawgmoth111.00111.001.00
Cascade Crashers111.00111.001.00
Grixis Shadow222.00111.001.50
Burn222.00111.001.50
Living End211.50211.501.50
Amulet Titan111.00222.001.50
UW Control222.00222.002.00
Mono-Green Tron222.00232.502.25
4-Color Control3N/A3.50222.002.75
Rakdos Rock333.00333.003.00
Glimpse Combo333.00333.003.00
Affinity333.00333.003.00
BelcherN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
Jund SagaN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
Prison TronN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
WishshiftN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
4-Color VivienN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
4-Color CreativityN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
Merfolk333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Jund333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Esper Reanimator333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Tribal Elementals333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Izzet Prowess333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Death and Taxes333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Mono-Red Prowess333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Manufactor Combo333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Eldrazi Tron333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
4-Color Bring to LightN/A33.50333.003.75
Ponza3N/A3.50N/AN/AN/A3.75
Domain Zoo3N/A3.50N/AN/AN/A3.75
Humans3N/A3.50N/AN/AN/A3.75
UW UrzaN/A33.50N/AN/AN/A3.75

In a continuation on the theme of metagame stability, the five Overall Tier 1 decks of June are exactly the same as from May. Again, this is neither a bad nor a good thing. It just means that Modern has achieved a stability it hasn't known in years.

Time to Settle Down

I know that there are players who will love the news that Modern's perpetual churn appears to have subsided. There are also players that will lament it. What matters is what Wizards thinks of it all. So far, they've been unwilling to act. This is not a true Splinter Twin or Birthing Pod situation because the top decks don't win events unlike the aforementioned banned cards, and their topping events was the primary factor listed for their respective bannings. Maybe that's fine, maybe that's not. We'll have to wait and see.

Cracking Into eBay’s Vault Service

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At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, asset prices took a very sudden tumble as the world groped with the concept that a virus was running rampant, sending people to the hospital left and right. The health scare shook investors out of stocks and commodities suddenly and drastically. I remember oil prices getting slammed especially hard.

In fact, at one point oil supply was outweighing demand so much, that the price of certain oil futures contracts went negative. Think about what this means! People would have paid you something like $20-$30 to take their barrels of oil off their hands! Seeing oil north of $100 a barrel now, it is hard to understand how something like negative oil prices can happen.

The simplified explanation someone gave me was that people were trading in these contracts to make a profit, but no one actually wanted the oil itself. When contract time was up, whoever was holding those contracts would suddenly be responsible for barrels of oil in Oklahoma (or whatever state they were in). I don’t know about you, but I don’t have a way to transport and store oil barrels, so to hold such expiring contracts would be… a problem. It was a problem for other traders, too, thus the very temporary negative price of oil. So what do oil prices have to do with Magic?

Back to Magic

The price situation we saw happen with oil can never happen in the world of Magic: The Gathering. Even in the most extreme case, where someone’s house is taken up by endless boxes of bulk, they could still find a buyer out there willing to come by with a U-haul and pick the collection up in order to pick through and sell it on the secondary market.

Of course, the biggest reason this can’t happen in Magic is that everyone is always dealing in physical assets. People aren’t buying and selling contracts that represent Magic cards—I think there are some services that offer investment in a fraction of a Black Lotus or some such, but I’m not sure these platforms are mainstream. Certainly, physical cards are trading hands far more often than digital representations of physical cards.

Until now?

The other day I saw the above image on eBay’s homepage. I asked the Quiet Speculation Discord about it, but there wasn’t much chatter on the subject. A cursory glance suggests that eBay is offering to store high-end, graded cards for folks to enable “seamless transactions” for their owners. Does “seamless” mean that the cards won’t be physically exchanging hands if I make a purchase from their vault? How are taxes and fees handled? Is this the beginning of a new trend in Magic investing?

The eBay Vault Deep Dive

After talking with a friend who is an avid Magic collector, I learned a little more about this service and its implications. Before jumping to conclusions, however, I wanted to see for myself. So I did some digging.

First, I found some advertisement-like videos showcasing a few big-name card collectors utilizing the eBay vault service. There was a sports card collector from New Jersey, another CCG investor from North Carolina, and Daniel Chang. Does that name sound familiar?

Daniel Chang is the founder and CEO of Vintage Magic, a store specializing in the most valuable and high-end Magic cards. It appears Chang has partnered with eBay to test out their vault concept. This means there will be a nice population of high-value Magic cards within their vault right off the bat. It makes perfect sense for eBay to start big because they need to have some threshold of cards in their vault before it can really gain traction. Chang certainly has the collection to help eBay accomplish this.

Unlocking the Details of the Vault

After watching the videos, I read through the details on eBay’s website. Here are some noteworthy points:

  • It’s no surprise that eBay has professionals who secure and maintain the vault, including dedicated staff to handle the cards.
  • Eligible graded cards on eBay can be sent directly to the eBay vault at checkout—this means it’s easy to contribute cards to their vault directly from eBay listings.
  • Sales tax will not be charged for items sent to or traded within the eBay vault. (Important!)
  • eBay waives selling fees, including final value fees, for items that are stored in the eBay vault. (Game-changer!)
  • No instant transfer fees in 2022 (3% fee to transfer ownership of an item in the vault)

Suddenly, I understand why big collectors like Daniel Chang would be interested in this service. Not only does it get them out of having to store and insure 7 figures’ worth of cardboard in their home, but it also enables them to sell on eBay’s platform without paying any fees! That’s a game-changer. If I sell a $1,000 card on eBay and ship it to the buyer, as usual, I have to pay over $100 in fees plus $5-$10 in shipping (depending on the service). There’s also always the risk the buyer is illegitimate and tries to swindle me out of the money.

With the vault, one can avoid the fees, the shipping, and the hassle of dealing with suspicious buyers. That’s an attractive proposition. For folks like Daniel Chang who have sizable collections, dodging eBay fees means more money going straight to his bottom line.

If you’ve ever considered selling a sizable collection before, you can appreciate the potential value this service brings. To sell a collection all at once, you either have to endure the fees and hassle of listing individual cards yourself (on eBay or TCGplayer for example) or sell it to a shop at a significant discount to the collection’s market value. With eBay’s vault, you’re able to sell everything individually with eBay’s service, maximizing value, avoiding fees, and minimizing effort.

Worth a Shot?

I’m definitely intrigued by this service. Unfortunately, eBay’s vault is only accepting graded cards worth at least $500 at the moment. I don’t own many graded cards (currently there are three in my collection) because I like the option of playing with my cards. I’m also a collector at heart, so I like to browse my collection frequently to appreciate the nostalgic joy the cards bring me. Shipping my cards to a vault means I wouldn’t be able to play with or enjoy my cards—it would turn them into a pure investment via digital representation of an asset.

Because of this, I won’t be a customer of this service from day one. If they expand it to include non-graded cards, it would at least be an option for me to consider. Then again, I don’t own a collection that’s nearly as valuable as those who run card shops and clear $1,000s and $10,000s in sales each month. Even if the service expanded, I'd still balk at the idea of shipping a raw Mox Ruby to their vault, for example. Though I must admit the ability to sell the card on eBay's site without paying that steep 10+% fee is attractive.

The idea of the vault feels like I’d be converting physical cards into digital assets (even though it still has a 1:1 relationship with the physical card itself). These aren’t NFTs, but they would feel like them because I would be owning a one-of-a-kind digital representation of unique pieces of cardboard. This is not something I’m interested in at this time. I could see others being interested, however. Especially folks who see all this cardboard as an investment vehicle.

In a way, eBay’s vault service legitimizes further the concept of Magic investing. Since people have collections with value in the millions, maybe it’s about time the game gets the respect from the investment community that it deserves? If eBay’s vault service takes the game more mainstream, it could be a boon for the market. We may see an increase in high-dollar, graded cards hitting the market in order to leverage this eBay service. Time will tell.

In the meantime, I’m going to stand by and observe how this manifests itself in practice. It’ll take time for this to ramp up, I’m sure. Will tons of valuable, graded cards start to pop up for sale on eBay’s site with the little “vault” icon? That will definitely be the case when browsing Vintage Magic’s eBay shop, at least. It’ll be interesting to see if other stores follow suit. If I can find a good deal, maybe I’ll try making a purchase myself to see how the process goes.

Wrapping It Up

Magic has always been a game with tangible game pieces (ignoring MTGO and Arena for the moment). For nearly 30 years, you’ve been able to purchase physical cards to enhance gameplay, grow your collection, and build your investment portfolio all at once.

In 2022, eBay is changing this formula for the first time. With their vault, you can build your investment portfolio and grow your collection without the third component—no need for physical exchange of the cardboard. Some hard-core Old School players aren’t going to like this. Many entrenched players believe this hobby should still be a game much like it was back in the 1990s.

The reality is that this is no longer the case. The past decade has brought many advancements to the investment industry. EBay’s vault seems like the next step of the journey. I’m not sure yet if it’s going to be an evolution of what already exists or a total revolution in how these assets are managed.

The only thing I’m certain of is that change will continue. As long as the Magic investment space adapts to keep up with these changes, then I still have full confidence in the stability of these card values. Prices will ebb and flow along with the broader economy (right now things are definitely pulling back), but investing in valuable pieces of cardboard will likely endure for years to come. If this prediction holds, expect to see higher prices in the future. If you think finding a high-grade Alpha or Beta rare is difficult now, just imagine what the market will look like 10 or 20 years from now.

Things will definitely stay interesting.

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Posted in eBay, Finance, Free Finance, investing, Old School Magic, Power 9, VintageTagged 2 Comments on Cracking Into eBay’s Vault Service

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First Pick: Great; Second Pick: Hate

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In Arena's brief return to Theros Beyond Death (THB), I opened pack one, pick one Archon of Sun's Grace. It was an easy first pick. The Archon is one of the format's most powerful bombs. It demands an immediate answer. It's evasive, and difficult to race. If you're ever triggering its ability the value feels insurmountable. When pack two came around, I was offered the following selection:

The best card here is Iroas's Blessing, a premium removal spell that can also trigger constellation. A case could be made for Thirst for Meaning as well. However, nothing in this pack matches the power of the first pick Archon. So I took the third best card in the pack, Transcendent Envoy, instead. Two drops are important, so having one in the color I'm committed to is nice. It's an enchantment and it has an ability that helps trigger constellation. I'm cutting white (although the Archon of Falling Stars is fine), which will theoretically help in pack two. In short, I first-picked a bomb and was going to do whatever I could to play it.

The World's Worst Motivational Speech

I was recently at a longevity celebration for a certain organization of which I'm a member. During that ceremony, the keynote speaker referenced a study that identified why people stay in their careers as long as they do. The number one reason, or so he said, is "inertia". This inertia keeps people on their various paths in a few ways. It's familiar, and there is comfort in familiarity. It's also easy to continue to do the thing(s) we do, we don't need to change or challenge ourselves. Change can also bring conflict, and people tend to avoid conflict. Personally, dear reader, I found the whole speech uninspiring.

At various points in our lives, we face forks in the road. Do we continue following the path we are on or do we change course? These can be some of the biggest decisions we ever face and they should not be taken lightly.

Although not quite as life-changing, we often face similar crossroads in a draft. We select a first pick we like, then we put the blinders on, following it up with cards that match its color, and hopefully align with its strategy. In his formative essay on Limited, Ben Stark calls this "Drafting the Easy Way". In general, we want to avoid this mindset. We want to stay open and continue collecting data with each pick because having access to an open color will be more valuable than the single bomb we started with.

Enter: The Variables

  • How powerful is our first pick?
    • Let's say the first pick of my draft wasn't quite as powerful as Archon. Imagine instead that I first picked Taranika, Akroan Veteran. They're both powerful rares capable of running away with the game. However, the legendary three-drop is not as dominant a card. It's a rare that I want in my white decks, but not a card I'm willing to draft a bad deck to accommodate. I'm less willing to chase the legendary three-drop than I am the Archon.
  • How desirable is the color/archetype we've started off in?
    • In THB the best color is black. If my first pick was a Mire's Grasp or Pharika's Spawn, I might consider fighting over the color even though neither of those cards is as strong as Archon. Being a black deck in THB has its own advantages. Similarly, when we first picked Inspiring Overseer in Streets of New Cappena (SNC), we were less likely to move off of it because of the overall power level of white cards in that format.
  • How convincing is the data I'm receiving?
    • For pick two, all I know is that an uncommon is missing. We have to assume the uncommon is more desirable than Iroas's Blessing, but that could be any number of cards, including cards that might be weaker but would put our opponent in a better archetype.

Fortunately for us, the data is not stagnant. Every selection provides more information. In this draft, my next two picks were red cards. Red was open, but I fought to play the bomb.

Archon and Friends

Archon vs Archon

In the previous Arena cube, I found that the Archon of Sun's Grace was nearly as strong as it was in THB. Whenever I saw it come down, it was often followed by multiple triggers, creating a board state I couldn't beat. Fortunately, I opened Archon there as well (must be nice). After taking the Archon in the cube I was faced with this selection.

Archon and "Friends"

Now, dear reader, we face a very different decision even though we're discussing the same first pick. Let's revisit those variables.

  • How powerful is our first pick?
    • It's still a very powerful card. However, constellation is a keyword that is more supported in THB than it is in the Arena Cube. Similarly, the power level of the format is extremely relevant. Compared to the uncommons and commons that make up the THB limited format, Cube is rich with bombs, removal, and high synergy plans. Archon of Sun's Grace might not be worth chasing here.
  • How desirable is the archetype/color?
    • There's no real reason to want to be an enchantment-heavy deck in the cube. In THB, there are tons of pay-offs and enablers. The cube holds some payoffs, but it's not a significant feature of the set. We can abandon our card, our color, or the strategy as a whole without a terrible feeling in our gut.
  • How convincing is the data?
    • That's less clear. However, it's clear that nothing here really helps our plan. We could take a land, or maybe the one drop. But there is far more value in taking a flyer on another archetype.

I selected Junk Winder with my second pick here. This gave me two viable pathways to move through the draft. This pick was far less of a declaration than taking the Transcendent Envoy in THB.

When Drafting the Hard Way Goes Wrong

Piloted this to a 5-3. It felt like landing a plane on the Hudson River

It's easy to end up with a bad deck and feel discouraged about staying flexible, but the surge of excitement we get from our first pick might not be worth pursuing. This deck was not great. Junk Winder impressed but in general, this midrange pile was pretty middling.

In THB, Archon almost guarantees a solid finish on its own. That's not the case here. I had to reach out and that ended up being a messy proposition. One might draw the following conclusion: When I stick with my first pick, I do better than when I pivot off of it. To which I would respond: that's probably true.

When we draft the easy way (namely, supporting your first pick with a well-built shell around it) it's because we can. We see cards that go with the first pick and so we take them. Things get more difficult when they must. When the options that go with our first pick aren't as powerful as those that diverge from them, we are forced to make difficult decisions. To be a good drafter, those decisions must be made.

The Limitations of Inertia

Here's a great example of needing to pivot: I first picked Concealing Curtains, which is a reasonably powerful rare. When I was passed the set's "mythic uncommon", Bloodtithe Harvester I was ready to settle into one of the format's premium archetypes, but the data changed.

Pack three offered me almost nothing in my colors. I rolled the dice on another gold uncommon, Brine Comber, because I was unwilling to lock myself in against this singular but concerning data point. Pack four provided a Traveling Minister to go with the spirit. Pack five made me reconsider the data.

The best card in my pool is the Bloodtithe Harvester. The best card in this pack is probably Kessig Flamebreather. While it is a red card, it doesn't play particularly well with what I have, but I assume if I end up RB then I will want it. The blue uncommons here are fine. I picked the Thirst for Discovery to go with my UW cards. Why? Because of the data.

Not All Data Points Are Created Equally

The deeper we get into each pack, the more information we can glean from the table. In packs three and four, I was seeing strong blue and white cards. This means two and three players, respectively, were passing those cards. The only good red card I had seen so far was pack two and it was a gold card. My opponents were likely any other combination with red, leaving me no reason to stay in that color. Conversely, I kept getting information that blue was available, including two (maybe three) playable cards from this pack.

Drafting the easy way would have been just that, easy. As the expression goes, "easy come, easy go". While I could have committed to the RB cards I picked early, my overall deck would have not been nearly as good as the one I drafted. The draft provided a different opportunity, and I took that opportunity to a 7-2 finish.

Good deck > Great cards

Readers are Leaders

The lesson here is that draft offers us signs and signals. We don't want to overreact to a single data point. We want to make sure we're adapting to the information we receive. If we stubbornly commit to the person we are, we may never become the person we are destined to be. Similarly, if we commit to an exciting first pick, we might never know what the table will offer us. If we obstinately clutch our first pick rare and second pick Bloodtithe Harvester, we'd be kicking ourselves as we pass strong card after strong card, finally admitting to ourselves, "we should have been UW", as we struggle to make playables.

There are many roads to success and we need to know how to navigate all of them. I might be punished for diverging from a good start, but that realization should not be seen as a sign of defeat. You want to get in the habit of making picks that will optimize your results long-term, rather than desperately lunging towards the path of least resistance. Remember that even your best cards are going to be less effective if you're in a bad position. The open lane will provide more opportunities for you to be in a good situation.

No one wants to abandon their first pick because we can never truly know what the future holds. But there are clues! Read the draft. Ensure that you're measuring the likelihood of future outcomes based on new evidence. Sometimes we toss away a bomb in pack one only to be passed several more in packs two and three. You are more than a victim of inertia, and your drafts should be too.

Generational Magic Player Spotlight: Johnny Lin

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I Play a Game Called Magic: The Gathering... No, It's a Card Game

Sharing our Magic: the Gathering journey with each other is what makes this game more than just a game; it becomes a community. We create enjoyable moments with people who become friends and friends who become family. Here's a glimpse into someone's Magical life and how the game has influenced it.

Today we're meeting Johnny, a friend of mine and my youngest. He's a huge Modern aficionado from Illuminaudi. Join me as Johnny shares his Magic journey!

Help Me Welcome Our Next Contestant...

What's your name and how long have you played Magic: the Gathering?
My name is Johnny Lin and the beginning of my Magic journey is in two parts. I initially learned how to play in 2010, while in high school. I slapped together the Zendikar and Worldwake Vampire intro decks and began occasionally gaming with my close friends. It wasn't until college with Journey into Nyx where a buddy of mine wanted to play and convinced me to split a box with him. I've been playing ever since and I really started to get into Magic.

Johnny

Who initially shared Magic with you?
My friend Jake during orchestra in high school. There were a few others that joined in, but mostly him and I.

Can you recall one of your first experiences playing the game?
One of my favorite early memories is when I was playing the above Vampire deck and Jake had pulled an Emrakul, the Aeons Torn sometime before that. He built a deck specifically made for it. During one of our games, he was able to cast Emrakul, attack, and annihilate my entire board. I survived with a few lands still in play. On my turn, I was able to play a kicked Gatekeeper of Malakir to make him sacrifice the big guy. The game continued on and I ended up winning. I'll never forget that one.

What format and types of deck do you enjoy?
I enjoy Modern. I honestly cycle through decks quite a bit. I played Grixis Death's Shadow when Lurrus of the Dream-Den wasn't banned.

Since its banning, I've been having fun switching between UR Murktide and Burn. The decks I play usually have blue and red in them.

So, Modern is your favorite format, eh?
Yea my first Modern deck was back around Khans of Tarkir was Ninja Bear Delver. From that, I eventually worked my way into Splinter Twin. I actually have more fun playing at the local level. I've been to a few big tournaments, but I find that I get too nervous and hyper-focused. I put way too much pressure on myself in the larger events. In a smaller setting, I'm more relaxed, enjoy the experience, and in turn, perform better.

Let me guess, you were disappointed when Splinter Twin was banned?
Absolutely! I first heard about it an LGS and was really bummed.

Any cards that were better or worse than you expected?
Nothing in particular. I watch a lot of streaming, especially Aspiring Spike. I really enjoy how he approaches the format. So with this and my normal testing, I keep on top of what's being played, and cards that may have some potential.

How did you adjust through the pandemic?
I took a long break during this time. I didn't attend until recently when the restrictions were lifted and even then I was pretty careful attending. To keep up with the game, I played MTG: Arena all the time, watched more streamers, and learned way more about Standard than I expected to. It was very enjoyable, but I'm happy to be able to get out and play face-to-face again.

What's one of your favorite Magic cards?
Definitely Snapcaster Mage. I enjoy it for its versatility. I remember throwing down the human wizard on turn two against Tron, and attacking for 20 with it over ten turns. I like Thing in the Ice as well, but of course it hasn't had as much impact in the format.

Who do you normally play with?
Generally my local scene. Most of the time I'm with my friends at Illuminaudi, but I visit Mavericks from time to time.

Is there anyone else in your family that plays?
No one in particular. I've tried to share it with a few of them on occasion, but it never really took. We each have our own hobbies and Magic is mine.

Is there anyone else you try to mentor or assist with the game?
I haven't had a lot of opportunity to focus in this area, but I do try to help other players after our games when they have a play mistake or an odd interaction that they weren't aware of.

One example that comes to mind is around this little blighter...

I had a game where my opponent attacked me with two creatures; one a 2/2 and the other a 5/5. I let the 2/2 through and blocked the other with my 5/5 Death's Shadow. Since all damage is dealt at the same time, and my life total was lower due to that damage, the Death's Shadow became a 7/7 and wasn't destroyed. My opponent was somewhat confused about it, and with the help of a judge, we were able to nicely educate him.

Is there anything you'd like to share with people who might like to get into Modern?
The land base can be expensive. It's helpful and important to have access to them. Shocklands, fetchlands, Triomes, Pathways, fastlands, and various others. The appropriate land base can open up your ability to play a variety of decks.

I highly recommend new players pick a deck, proxy it out, and run some playtest games with your friends or online. If you like it, then invest it in. I've heard many stories of people plunking down a lot of money on a deck, playing it a few times, and not enjoying the play pattern.

I knew one guy who put a Jund deck together a couple years ago. He bought Tarmogoyfs, Liliana of the Veils, the whole thing. He played 3 games, didn't like it, and sold it a week later for a different deck.

The Wrap-Up

I want to thank Johnny for sharing his story and how Magic has been a part of it. I hope you enjoyed our discussion and look forward to the next installment.

Don’t Just Optimize Decks, Evolve Them

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More than ever Magic players have the opportunity to make decks really personal. This is a great thing not only for a casual setting but also for competitive analysis. One of the great joys in Commander is to take a deck idea and continually hone and refine this idea until you reach the perfected form of your deck... and then new cards are released and the process starts all over again! However, do not let the insidious nature of "optimization" undermine your ultimate goals.

An Example Now Including Deathtouch

I wrote briefly about my Atraxa, Praetors' Voice deathtouch deck and it has proven to be one of my more fun, casual and interactive decks—everything that Atraxa typically is *not*. As Wizards continues to release cards with deathtouch I continue to update and "optimize" the deck. However, this deck is definitely not about winning.

Early Optimization Looked Like This

Here you can see how we were optimizing based purely on a power metric. A 1/1 deathtoucher for one mana is not great but a 1/1 deathtoucher that sometimes grows to a 3/3 for the same one mana is definitely better. However, now the deck can shift to a 1/2 for one that sometimes gets a +1/+1 counter but is *always* a Warrior for the same one mana. This is not a strict upgrade. A fair amount of the time you could have gotten a 3/3 for one versus missing a +1/+1 counter and being stuck with a 1/2. The Party dynamic might not even come into play in that game.

Expanding on a party subtheme though adds character and replayability to the deck even if it's not necessarily a power increase. That is exactly what I feel many Commander players are missing. I'm going to get a better gameplay experience by choosing the much more interesting mix of interactive cards. This is true in any environment that is not a tournament scenario.

When Deathtouch Becomes Deathtouch/Multicolored Party/Assassin/+1/+1 Counters

When new cards are released if you are too single-minded you might judge them based on far too limited a metric. This metric is usually answering the question "will this make my deck win more games?" Instead, consider this: Evaluating Kathril, Aspect Warper, Endling, and Rayami, First of the Fallen against each other becomes an interesting balancing act that defines the deck. In one of my games, when I played four multi-colored deathtouch creatures in a row a player asked me what my deck was even trying to do. For me, that was the moment I knew I had a unique Atraxa deck.

Not only does the deck contain massive points for its theme but it also has multiple completely unified subthemes that are all interconnected. Rather than simply getting "more" for "less" I balance the different subthemes against each other and steer the deck towards my goal for it.

When Old Inspires New

As a young player, I was enthralled by Pestilence. Being able to wipe the board was always powerful. However, there was a built-in limitation to the card that was notable. No creatures in play meant that Pestilence went bye-bye at the end of the turn. Back then I ran a deck full of Pestilence, Withering Wisps(aka Snow-Covered Pestilence)and also Cemetery Gate and Order of Leitbur. Difficult to kill walls and the notorious "pump knights" with Protection from Black meant that these creatures could not die to Pestilence. In 2022, should a player even consider an old off-meta card while newer and more powerful cards are printed every month?

The What

When I built K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth, I had certain goals. Sure I wanted to win but I also wanted to utilize as many cards with pure black mana casting costs as possible. I also wanted to keep the deck pivoted towards Two-Headed Giant. An Enchantment with an activation cost of one black mana seems like it fits within those goals neatly. Of course, the beauty of a card like Pestilence is that it is not just a board wipe but also a potential win condition. That makes it potentially way better than a straightforward board wipe.

The Why

Simply put, I've lost way too many games with my take on K'rrik. The deck is intended to be fairly competitive and seeks to win. I built it with Two-Headed Giant mostly in mind, but it's still a cEDH leaning deck for cEDH tables. I know I don't write about cEDH a lot, but I certainly play my fair share of games at competitive tables. I simply find them less interesting to write about most of the time. Let's talk about a cEDH game that was interesting, and reinforces the point I'm trying to make here.

The Competitive Disadvantages of Too Much Optimization

I sat down at this table for a game, and we had our pregame conversation. We talked about decks and decided to go competitive, no holds barred. The player across from me revealed Yasharn, Implacable Earth as their commander. At this point, I'd refined K'rrik to such a degree that I felt comfortable at the prospect of consistent turn three, turn four combos ending the game. I've surprised a few tables with the naked aggression and speed of my deck. I could lose 30 life but then combo out and win. This built my confidence in my design direction. I also felt good about my backup plan.

In cases where a game stalled out, I could turn to a slow draining strategy with extort. While I saw that Yasharn could potentially shut me down, I figured I could either race my commander out sooner and Yasharn would never be in play or I could answer it with "something" in my deck.

And Then Sol Ring Happened

Well, that player had a classic turn one Sol Ring, into turn two Yasharn and they went before me. I mentally went through my deck and determined my number of outs to Yasharn to be… zero. Yes, in the highly "optimized" version I had made that was all gas and no brakes, I had zero cards that dealt with Yasharn. Oh, I had cards that dealt with board situations. Extremely powerful cards like Toxic Deluge and Demonic Tutor and Yawgmoth's Will to replay powerful cards like… Toxic Deluge. Do you see the problem? I had optimized myself into a corner.

I have not played against another competitive Yasharn deck since that day. For those curious about what they were playing, it was mostly a value engine with a lot of hate bears and Stax effects. In that kind of environment, a 4/4 actually kills people pretty quickly. In any case, I drastically underestimated how vulnerable my strategy was in light of a handful of cards or a particularly fast start from another player. While I still want my K'rrik to be on the fast and all-in side, ultimately, I want the deck to win more games. The fact is I need more answers and fewer combo pieces. Even decks that are not built primarily for speedy starts can have quick openers and I need to have more answers because more decks are running Stax effects.

The Hybridized Approach

This is where evolution comes into play. I know there are generally accepted and powerful mono-black board wipes like Damnation and I could just slot one of those into K'rrik. However, I'm going to give Pestilence a whirl because I can see that it solves other problems and has additional synergies with my overall strategy. There is a diplomacy angle to Pestilence that is hard to quantify versus Damnation and I think playing something that stays around and continues to ruin hate bears and Stax's day is a huge plus. Furthermore, if I just put in Damnation which is a known "good card" I will lose out on the chance to test what could be a better card. Damnation is already in other decks I've run and I've cast the card many times, it's proven itself. But I have not seen another player cast Pestilence in years. I am genuinely curious if it's really unplayable or, secretly, powerful. Turning my life total into board-wide damage is just too tempting not to try.

The fact is cards change in relative power all the time based on what other cards are being played. This is the simplest expression of the metagame. Theorycrafting alone is not good enough to determine card strength. When cards have relative power, you must put in games to check. My deck must evolve with the current meta or I won't win many more games.

What Have We Learned Today?

Hopefully, how it is important not to get trapped within an eternal optimization loop. In an effort to further refine a deck it's easy to miss the forest for the trees, chipping away at a decent deck concept so much that it turns into a degenerate deck. Now, there is nothing wrong with the degenerate deck if that was your initial goal. But it seems like many players and deck builders get trapped into a reductionist mindset which can limit expression, fun, and even win rate. Rather than continue to find lower mana cost deathtouchers I've branched out into several subthemes to flesh out my deck concept. Now I am on the lookout for more interesting cards in the future. Instead of pushing the envelope for raw speed and combo potential, I'm looking for the most synergistic pieces of removal for K'rrik that can be part of my game plan rather than only a reaction to my opponents.

Did you ever have a deck evolve? Tell me about it in the comments!

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