menu

The Quiet Speculation Sealed Contest: Winner Announced

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Thanks to everyone who participated in the Quiet Speculation Sealed Contest. We got a lot of great entries (and a few pretty bad ones, too). Most entrants identified Sultai as the guild to be in, but the builds varied from black-green splashing blue, green-blue splashing black, solid three-color decks, Sultai decks trying to jam Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker and Savage Knuckleblade, and a five-color deck.

sarkhanthedragonspeaker

I was very much hoping someone would figure out a good way to play Sarkhan, but there just wasn't enough red support to make it happen. Given the lack of red playables, nobody tried to build a deck with red as a base color. Sarkhan was very much a trap, and I was pleased to see that most entrants avoided it. A couple people tried to splash it (one with only three red sources), but splashing double-color cards is almost always wrong. For the record, if someone had managed to fit Sarkhan in a deck with a good curve and reasonable mana, that probably would have won this contest. The fact that no one did indicates to me that Sarkhan was truly just unplayable here.

Without further ado, congratulations to Chris B. for his winning list:

Chris B. Winning List

Creatures

1 Disowned Ancestor
1 Highland Game
2 Smoke Teller
1 Tuskguard Captain
2 Sultai Flayer
1 Longshot Squad
1 Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
1 Swarm of Bloodflies
1 Sultai Scavenger
2 Hooting Mandrills
1 Abomination of Gudul

Spells

1 Debilitating Injury
1 Sultai Charm
2 Throttle
1 Dead Drop
2 Scout the Borders
2 Treasure Cruise

Lands

1 Opulent Palace
1 Thornwood Falls
3 Island
6 Forest
6 Swamp

My only major concern with this deck is the mana base. The deck only has seven black sources and eight green sources, and I would have liked to see one more of each of these colors, especially black. There are four blue sources here to splash Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, Sultai Charm, the face-up version of Abomination of Gudul, and two Treasure Cruises. Four blue sources might be okay considering these are mostly late-game cards, but five would have been ideal. Basically, Chris needed a second Opulent Palace to really perfectly fix his mana.

opulentpalace

Besides that, I think this deck has an excellent curve and the mana is only iffy, not disastrous. I would have cut a blue card or two, replacing an Island with a Swamp or Forest. This would make the blue a very light splash and add some consistency to the deck.

Thanks should go to every entrant for their decklists and comments. I legitimately learned some things about the format from this exercise. Andrew T. (among a few others) pointed out that even though we're not splashing white, all the delve cards mean that Windswept Heath should definitely be in the deck. That was not my first impression, but his argument was good enough that I do think Heath should be run over a Forest in this build.

I generally don't like Kheru Bloodsucker, especially without Act of Treason in my deck, but with Swarm of Bloodflies, double Sultai Flayer, and lots of delve, I could see one copy reasonably making this deck, but running both copies in this pool was pushing it.

sultaiflayer

Exactly zero people submitted a white deck, which isn't entirely surprising given that there were only five playable mono-white cards in this pool. However, all five of those cards are quite good and the fixing for white is phenomonal between the Windswept Heath and three Blossoming Sands. I wouldn't have gone white, but I'm kind of surprised that zero people did.

Generally, I think people avoided the traps in this pool admirably. The vast majority of entrants submitted Sultai decks, which I agree with. However, between Sarkhan, Big Knucks, and some powerful fixing, I was expecting to see more varied colors among the lists. Kudos to everyone for identifying the consistent strategy and avoiding the distractions. Thankfully, all the Sultai decks were pretty different, so I wasn't trying to choose a winner based off of one or two different cards.

Once again, thanks for your entries and comments! Perhaps we'll do this again one day. If you think you have a better build, post it below!

Insider: Digesting Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir has come and gone, and now it's time to make sense of what it means for the Standard metagame at-large. This was the first Pro Tour Hawaii I missed, but I watched most of the coverage from home and thought it was the highest-quality PT coverage to date.

The Quietspeculation.com crew got together each evening of the Pro Tour to discuss the tournament coverage in real-time, and we provided financial coverage as it happened by streaming on twitch.tv. I joined in on Saturday, and it was a fun and rewarding experience.

We generated some great discussion about Standard finance related to the Pro Tour, and experts shared some incredibly valuable advice that can be employed all year long. Before the coverage wrapped up and we shut down for the evening, we had nearly 100 viewers, and their participation throughout allowed us to respond in detail to a ton of questions. It was enlightening for all involved. I encourage everyone to check it out for themselves.

Standard, A Week Later

I'm going to reference a lot of decks, and rather than post them all, I'll simply link to all of the available decklists from the official coverage:

Top 8
7-3 or Better (A-N)
7-3 or Better (O-Z)

It's now a week after the Pro Tour began, and while there have been some important metagame changes, Standard certainly doesn't look entirely different than it did last week, especially not compared to last year when Mono-Blue Devotion and Mono-Black Devotion completely warped the metagame after Pro Tour Theros.

Jeskai and Abzan were top-tier strategies in the SCG Opens and TCGplayer States in the weekends leading to the Pro Tour, and they went on to be dominant at the Pro Tour. The Pro Tour did reveal that Abzan and Jeskai are quite flexible in their construction and in-game role-assignment, with three distinct versions of each of those archetypes reaching the Top 8 and many more variations following behind.

Abzan with lots of planeswalkers won the entire event in the hands of Ari Lax. Highlights include Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, and Ajani, Mentor of Heroes in the maindeck, with Nissa, Worldwaker and Liliana of the Veil in the sideboard, but zero Fleecemane Lion. Two other versions reached the Top 8, one aggressive build that included Rakshasa Deathdealer and Herald of Torment without Courser of Kruphix, and one midrange without a set of Thoughtseize in the maindeck.

Jeskai was nearly as dominant, also placing three copies into the Top 8. Shaun McLaren's finalist list contained four Dig Through Time and just one Seeker of the Way, but two Anger of the Gods maindeck and a transformational control sideboard including two Keranos, God of Storms. Yuuya Watanabe used Brimaz, King of Oreskos and Gods Willing to supplement the traditional creature package, and Andrej Strasky played a robust flying suite of four Hushwing Gryff and three Ashcloud Phoenix to join Mantis Rider.

Food for thought? The best performing Standard record of the entire tournament was an 8-1-1 finish by Ben Stark, who played Jeskai with three maindeck Nullify.

Abzan got the best of Jeskai in the end; the Top 8 coverage really highlighted how Abzan is better positioned in the matchup. Siege Rhino, with lifedrain and large body, is very oppressive against Jeskai. Black removal is great for killing one of Jeskai's few key creatures and leaving them with an anemic offense.

Going forward I expect Abzan to increase in popularity and push out some of the Jeskai decks from the metagame. Jeskai will be forced to evolve, possibly adopting the flying approach of Strasky or taking on a more controlling role like Justin Cheung, whose deck I wrote about on TCGplayer this week.

One of the breakout decks from the tournament was Dimir Control with Perilous Vault and Pearl Lake Ancient. Ivan Floch played his version to the Top 8. But perhaps the bigger story is that many on Team Pantheon played their own version, designed by Andrew Cuneo, and teammember Owen Turtenwald lost his win-and-in match to narrowly miss Top 8 on tiebreakers.

This deck didn't perform well on camera, much to the mockery of the coverage, but the deck actually performed quite well overall. According to Patrick Chapin's analysis, relative to expectation, it's the best performing archetype of all. (Patrick broke down the PT metagame and his top 50 Abzan deck in his article this week on SCG, and it's a must read.)

Dimir Control would be weak against rush aggro, but that's non-existent. Control is excellent for fighting midrange decks and other control strategies, which is where the metagame looks to be headed. Control decks are hard to build and tune, but it's clear that Dimir control of some sort is going to be a player in the Standard metagame, and it should only grow better as time goes on and the metagame settles. I don't expect it to be hugely popular, certainly not at first, but there will be a tournament in the near future that it wins, and it will start a tide; I'm looking towards GP LA this weekend, but SCG events and perhaps even the TCGplayer $50k Championship next weekend.

Jeskai Ascendancy combo also reached Top 8 in hands of Li Shi Tian, but possibly an even bigger story is that many of the best players in the world from TeamChannelFireball also played the deck. Eric Froelich played it to a strong finish, and I know LSV and PVDDR also piloted it. I recommend checking out Paulo's article--he does a very thorough job of explaining its role in the metagame and preparing someone to play it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

Jeskai Ascendancy combo is fundamentally good, but it didn't have astounding success at the Pro Tour, and now with it on the radar people will be much better prepared for it. Paulo explained that the deck is great against mild disruption, but serious disruption paired with threats are a tough matchup. Jeskai Wins is tough, and while the deck is strong against Ari Lax-style Abzan, it has significantly more trouble with Sigrist's aggressive take.

This is a great deck for anyone looking to train their Magic game and gain mastery over a combo deck, and it's going to be rewarding for some as it evolves throughout the season, but by no means is it a get-rich-quick scheme that will yield free win after free win.

One deck that lacked a champion in the Top 8 was Green Devotion. The tournament was relatively devoid of this strategy, making up under 10% of the metagame, and I didn't see a single Hornet Queen on camera all weekend. On the other hand, some players did work to evolve the archetype, with the biggest innovation being See the Unwritten.

Newly minted Hall of Famer Makihito Mihara's 8-2 record puts him within the top 10 Standard records at the Pro Tour, and he did it with a Green Devotion deck that looks strikingly similar to what he played to the top 8 of PT Theros last year. That's the Green Devotion shell I'd look to going forward. Jon Finkel also played a Green Devotion See the Unwritten strategy, which is a scary thought. Check out Gaudenis Vidiguris' list for insight into Team Pantheon's version. Green Devotion is well-positioned against Abzan Midrange strategies, so it seems like a great choice going forward.

I'm also a huge fan of Tzu-Ching Kuo's deck, which departs from the Green Devotion shell to an Abzan shell abusing See the Unwritten. It doesn't have the same synergistic explosive power as Green Devotion, but going Abzan allows him to play individually higher quality cards, more disruption, and gain access to more reliable ferocious triggers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for See the Unwritten

Another deck of note is the tokens strategy played by Deniz Rachid to an 8-2 finish. Brad Nelson did a deck tech on the archetype.

The most convincing aggressive strategy of all was played by Yoshihiko Ikawa. It's essentially a Boros Heroic deck, but he uses Vanguard of Brimaz and Launch the Fleet to generate a ton of tokens, which he abuses with a whopping four Obelisk of Urd. Check it out, this deck very narrowly missed Top 8 and is the real deck.

What do you make of the Pro Tour results? Where is Standard headed? Chime in on the comments. I'll also answer any questions you may have.

-Adam

The Newest Alpha Cards Around

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

imgres

It doesn't get much prettier than that right there.

And that's exactly what regular YouTuber "open boosters" pulled after deciding to open an Alpha starter. Well, that and an Alpha Tropical Island. Which, you know, isn't usually playing second fiddle in sentence.

Like a smart man, the lucky recipient of these cards had them sent off for grading. And today, they arrived back, packaged and perfect. You can see for yourself here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, Free3 Comments on The Newest Alpha Cards Around

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

A Friendly Reminder about Fall Set Rares

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Last year, Anthony Capece wrote a fantastic piece for Brainstorm Brewery about the dangers of speculating on rares from fall sets. If you've never read it, go do so, because this was and is a groundbreaking piece of MTG finance content.

Brainstorm (cropped)

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece about long-term Standard trajectories (Insider subscription required), and one of the big takeaways from that article was that the highest price index for a fall set is immediately following the pro tour of the subsequent fall set (the exception being when the set is freshly released, due to lots of hype and lack of supply).

In general—I want to emphasize the in general part here, because individual cards will vary—this is the time of the year to be selling your cards. If historical patterns hold this year, and I don't see why they wouldn't, Theros cards are at their highs and will only decline over the next year until they rotate. There will be outliers, but most cards should follow this pattern.

We're also still in the high-hype, low-supply phase of Khans of Tarkir. Shock lands started about where the fetch lands currently sit, but ended up being universally under $10. Fetch lands are playable in more formats, meaning they might not drop quite as far as the shocks did, but they will go down. If you're not actively playing them right now, there's no reason not to sell your fetches and reacquire them later.

At this time of year, it's easy to ambitiously think that every card will maintain its price or even go up, but in most cases, it's simply not going to happen. Standard may seem exciting now, but it won't be long before the community is sick of mirror matches and a stale format. It happens almost every year.

There's a world in which Siege Rhino and Mantis Rider become the Thragtusks of this Standard season, defying the odds and maintaining high prices throughout the year. There's also a world in which they remain key players in the format, but due to being three-color, fall set rares, drop to a dollar or two and stay there, despite being format-defining cards. I'm leaning toward this second possibility.

The below chart shows that Theros cards are indeed at their high points since declining after the set's release. This is consistent with past years, and you can already see that they're starting to drop from that peak level, as happens with every set in the past several years.

therossetindex

If you have Standard cards you've been waiting to sell, now is the time. I've spent the last couple evenings preparing several buylist orders to go out, selling out of a huge portion of the Standard cards I've been holding or have opened since Khans of Tarkir was released. It's hard to stress too much how helpful Trader Tools has been in this process, and I highly recommend you use it to prepare your own buylists.

Or not. There's nothing really wrong with just holding the cards you want to play with, but be aware that you are leaving money on the table by doing so. This is fine if you're okay with it—but at least make sure it's a conscious decision.

Insider: The Post-Pro Tour Metagame

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Preamble: I was at the Pro Tour in Honolulu. It was a crazy good time, complete with midnight walks on the beach with foreigners, late-night drafting and all day Pro Touring. The Top 8 was incredibly diverse, and there were some cards that did some stuff financially.

Blah. Blah. Blah.

Also, blah.

This is all old news at this point. We know Siege Rhino is good. We know Pearl Lake Ancient is no longer bulk. We know Ari Lax gets really excited when he plays Magic.

The only question that now matters is, what’s next?

Pulling from the Pro Tour

I know everyone is excited about the Top 8 decks and will look for them to guide the future, and while that is true it’s also not the entirety of the story. That’s why these two pages, somewhat buried in the coverage, are so important. Making Top 8 not only takes a great Constructed deck and some favorable matchups, it takes a strong Limited game. The Top 8 decks don’t always feature what the “best” decks are in the metagame, it simply features which decks were played by players who did well enough in both Limited and Constructed to make the elimination rounds.

These lists, on the other hand, give us a few of all the decks that earned at least 21 points in the Swiss rounds, which means they went 7-3 or better. Finding trends in this is far more important than looking at the small snapshot that is the Top 8.

And here we find some cards that were completely missed during the Top 8 but could nonetheless prove important moving forward.

Let’s dig in.

Ashcloud Phoenix

This saw way more play over the weekend than you would expect, though no copies made it to the Top 8. This also made it onto the list of “cards the pros thought overperformed,” even if they weren’t playing it themselves.

This guy keeps the beats coming, and even though it’s not lighting the world on fire it is worth noting as a mythic. That said, it’s not cheap at $7 now, though many players don’t actually view it that high. Picking these up on the cheap is a solid plan, but I don’t love investing heavily at the current price.

Mana Confluence

Not as many copies as you would expect. As we move forward, we’re likely going to get more mana fixing, and this was already not the huge player on the weekend we expected. I loved this as a pickup at $10 when I began writing about it, but I feel like it’s a sell at $17 now. Take your profits and enjoy them.

Chandra, Pyromaster

I don’t love it as much as I did at $5, but at $7-8 I still think there could be some upside. I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat: if Liliana Vess can be $10 with a million printings, Chandra can easily pass that point. This is not a bad target moving forward.

In this particular case, I’m referring to the Mardu Planeswalker deck that had some success. But Chandra can fit into a variety of shells including Brad Nelson’s R/W Control deck, and I expect that versatility to continue during her time in Standard.

Red-White Heroic

Now we’re talking about some sweet decks. Favored Hoplite gets my deckbuilding juices flowing.

On the one hand, this deck—utilizing just Obelisk of Urd and Launch the Fleet as maindeck rares—looks weak and weird. But on the other hand, it did go 7-3 at the Pro Tour, and I know there were white-blue variants that also went at least 6-4.

It wasn’t played in the red-white list, but I saw more than one Hero of Iroas floating around the room. That’s something with a casual appeal to fall back on, and could be a nice riser since this represents something of a “budget” deck.

Temples, Painlands

I’ll second Sigmund’s call that these are still good pickups, especially Temple of Triumph. People are all excited about fetchlands right now, but the truth is you also need plenty of the old reliable lands to help get you there. These should hold value better than Khans of Tarkir over the next six months, which makes them attractive to pick up right now.

Speaking of Khans of Tarkir, I think I want to close this week by putting my thoughts out there on the future of this set as a whole.

What we're seeing right now is unprecedented. The average value of the singles in a box of Khans of Tarkir is $178 as of today. We have never seen this before at this point of a set's release, save for one time that I can think of. Magic 2010 massively outperformed expectations and we saw shortages of product in the first month similar to what we're seeing with Khans.

It's not often that Wizards underestimates demand for a product, but by all accounts that's what we're seeing here. The fact the Pro Tour had such a healthy metagame only adds to this, and it's a great sign for Magic moving forward.

That said, the ride cannot last forever. It just can't. As soon as new product comes in, store owners are right now busting the boxes to sell the singles rather than move the boxes at $100 apiece. Of course the TCGMid number (which calculates all 15 cards) is not the true representation of the "value" of a box, but keep in mind that Theros is just $127 right now and never reached the levels Khans did. In fact, no fall expansion in memory, even Innistrad, performed at this rate financially.

Will Khans be the set that breaks the mold and starts a new trend? It's possible, especially considering that the draft structure for this format means it won't be opened as much as Theros. And there was a lot of talk at the Pro Tour about this being the best draft format of all time. But still, until the numbers convince me otherwise, I see no reason why Khans prices won't be significantly cheaper a 6-8 weeks from now.

If you have any of the newly-popular cards, I have to advise moving them out now. Even if the expensive cards hold value, the less-prevalent-but-still-$5 rares like Rakshasa Deathdealer will see a halving in value. And as amazing as Dig Through Time is, it is extraordinarily difficult for a Fall-set rare to hold $10+, and I don't see that happening in a set with fetchlands.

I know none of this seems like groundbreaking information, but right now the general mindset seems to be that Khans is the set that keeps on giving. It’s two weeks after the release, and prices are actually higher than they were before. There’s a lot that plays into this, including the fact that so many of the cards are immediately playable in Standard.

But sooner or later it’s going to begin taking it all back, and you’ll want to have moved your holdings into safer places by then, because while the bubble may not burst, it will certainly deflate as we continue to draft what is one of the best draft sets ever made.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: PTKTK Standard & Finance

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir was this weekend and I enjoyed watching the coverage of the event. There were lots of great matches between amazing professional players.

As it turns out though, there was not a lot of diversity going on in the Pro Tour metagame. In fact, I nicknamed the event Pro Tour Jeskai vs. Abzan. Six of the top eight were playing one of these two strategies. After the event is over, I eagerly anticipate looking through the successful Standard decks. I’m usually more excited to see these deck lists than those in the Top 8 because there will be some hidden gems among the lists that not many players have paid attention to. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen this time around.

So what we have left is still Jeskai vs. Abzan and I expect there to be tons of these decks in your local metagame going forward. U/B Control may continue to make an appearance but there are not overpowered cards like Sphinx's Revelation for players to get free wins from so I doubt it will be as much of the metagame as it was this past season.

The positive aspect to a narrow metagame like this is that we can try to develop a deck that attacks both decks successfully. For now, let’s look at what we’re dealing with.

Jeskai Wins by Shaun McLaren (2nd Place Pro Tour Khans)

Creatures

1 Seeker of the Way
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Mantis Rider

Spells

4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
2 Banishing Light
4 Jeskai Charm
2 Anger of the Gods
4 Stoke the Flames
2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
4 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Mystic Monastery
4 Temple of Triumph
2 Shivan Reef
1 Battlefield Forge
4 Flooded Strand
2 Island
1 Plains
3 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Anger of the Gods
2 End Hostilities
2 Keranos, God of Storms
3 Dissolve
1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Negate
1 Phyrexian Revoker
2 Erase

Other than some slightly different card choices, this is the same archetype that posted good results the first week of the metagame. The goal is to use all of your creatures and spells as direct damage to your opponent.

If you have a couple removal spells for your opponent's creatures, they have a much harder time dealing you enough damage to finish you off. If you give them too much time in the game though, they will eventually find enough burn spells to end the game. Counters are good against this deck too because it slows them down drastically. For that same reason, discard spells should prove strong against this deck as long as you can progress your board presence or interact with them in another way. I don’t expect this deck to go away anytime soon.

The big change to this list is the full four Dig Through Time. I’ve seen tons of chatter about this card and rightly so. When you cast it for any amount of mana, its effect is game changing. Dig Through Time is to Impulse like Bruce Banner is to the Hulk. Dig is that impressive. It may seem innocent enough because it costs eight mana, but frequently it costs four or less mana.

Delve is busted and overpowered. This card is a direct example of that fact. We may very well see Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise banned in Modern and/or Legacy because of how huge their effect is for so cheap.

The one-of Disdainful Stroke in the sideboard seems great and will most likely be increased in numbers once the metagame adjusts. We may even see a point where Disdainful Stroke is a good main deck spell. Honestly, I think we are almost there right now. Disdainful Stroke counters nearly every important card in Abzan Midrange as well as most other decks you are likely to play against. Even if it never sees main deck play, it’s going to be a great sideboard card because it’s cheap and deals with so many different hard to deal with cards.

One of my new favorite cards not in this second place list is Hushwing Gryff. Take a look at one of the Pro Tour Khans Top 8 decks that used this card to great effect.

Jeskai Wins by Ondrej Strasky (5th – 8th Place Pro Tour Khans)

Creatures

4 Seeker of the Way
4 Mantis Rider
4 Hushwing Gryff
3 Ashcloud Phoenix
2 Stormbreath Dragon

Spells

4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
4 Jeskai Charm
4 Stoke the Flames
3 Banishing Light

Lands

3 Flooded Strand
4 Mystic Monastery
2 Temple of Epiphany
3 Temple of Triumph
3 Battlefield Forge
3 Shivan Reef
3 Mountain
2 Island
1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Magma Spray
2 Anger of the Gods
3 Disdainful Stroke
1 Gainsay
3 Prognostic Sphinx
3 Suspension Field

This decks takes a more proactive approach than McLaren’s deck and follows a more aggressive approach to winning games. Ashcloud Phoenix did a lot of work for Andrej also and I expect the newest phoenix to continue to see play as the metagame evolves. I’ve been a big supporter of this creature since my top 10 article for this set and I think this is a great home for it.

Whenever I see Stormbreath Dragon in decks, I always think, wouldn’t that be better as Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker? The vast majority of the time I conclude Sarkhan > Stormbreath and make the change to my list.

No matter which version of Jeskai Wins you prefer, the deck is good. The fact that there are multiple good ways to build the deck suggests that no matter which way the metagame shifts, this deck will be able to adapt and evolve to be a major player.

Abzan Midrange by Ari Lax (1st place in Pro Tour Khans)

Creatures

2 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Siege Rhino
2 Wingmate Roc

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
4 Abzan Charm
3 Hero's Downfall
2 Utter End
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
2 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Temple of Malady
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
2 Llanowar Wastes
2 Caves of Koilos
1 Mana Confluence
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Temple of Silence
3 Forest
2 Plains

Sideboard

1 End Hostilities
1 Duneblast
1 Mass Calcify
3 Drown in Sorrow
3 Bile Blight
2 Murderous Cut
1 Unravel the Æther
1 Liliana Vess
2 Nissa, Worldwaker

This deck and strategy remind me of Jund decks of the past. In fact, the core cards of this deck match up closely with some core cards from Shards of Alara Jund. This deck features an overpowered four-cost creature that is very hard to deal with as well as a creature that puts two hard-to-deal-with creatures into play. Originally these cards were Bloodbraid Elf and Broodmate Dragon. Both of those cards may be better than Siege Rhino and Wingmate Roc, but they function similarly and are equally as oppressive in the format.

Although Abzan Midrange is more of a good stuff deck, it’s still a combination of cards that is not easily dealt with. There are many individually powerful cards in this deck that can take over a game as well. Wingmate Roc is particularly hard to deal with because the two flyers are hard to take out.

There are some cards that will help you beat this deck. The first two that come to mind are Hushwing Gryff and Disdainful Stroke. Hushwing is a great response to Siege Rhino and Wingmate Roc but it is vulnerable to removal so casting it in response to those threats seems like the best time to put it into play.

Normally everyone's first suggestion would be to build a focused hyper aggressive deck to beat this deck before it gets its legs under it, but that plan isn’t going to work here. Aggro decks will definitely have a hard time dealing with all the lifegain this deck has built into it. Many of the strong creatures we have discussed, as well as Sorin, Solemn Visitor, provide incidental lifegain. All of those cards together make for one tough nut for aggro to crack.

Be wary of the go big or go home strategy as well. Abzan’s midgame threats are so good in the midgame that you probably don’t have time to make it to the end game. This midrange strategy is going to be a nearly impossible one to knock from the top of the hill.

Pro Tour Khans Financial Info

[cardimage cardname='Siege Rhino'][cardimage cardname='Wingmate Roc']

You may not have even needed to look up Siege Rhino or Wingmate Roc in order to know that they went up in value. Based on how well the Abzan decks performed at the Pro Tour, it's no wonder that these two cards cost more now than they did before the event.

What's important to note though is that this current price is likely their ceiling. Ten dollars for a rare in a set that contains fetch lands is going to be hard to maintain no matter how much play it sees and twenty for Wingmate Roc seems just about correct to me. I wouldn't be surprised that if in a few weeks Siege Rhino was back down closer to five dollars and Wingmate Roc stabalized closer to fifteen dollars. If you don't need them, trade them and lock in your profit now.

[cardimage cardname='Rakshasa Deathdealer'][cardimage cardname='Pearl Lake Ancient']

Two relatively bulk cards showed big growth this past weekend. Both Pearl Lake Ancient and Rakshasa Deathdealer were poised and waiting to jump up in value. I noticed how well Deathdealer was selling for my store so I started buying them more aggressively. With there being relatively few good two-drops, Deathdealer seemed like a shoe-in for a spot in decks that could support him.

Pearl Lake Ancient, however, wasn't selling at all. This is the type of card players trade into me in droves until they see someone else find success with the card. Now that its $4-5 we will sell more copies than when it was $1.50 because players have confidence in its power. Again, this is probably the peak for both of these cards, but I'd be surprised if they drop much below $4.

[cardimage cardname='Dig Through Time'][cardimage cardname='Perilous Vault']

The biggest winners of the weekend were Dig Through Time and Perilous Vault. While Dig Through Time shouldn't surprise you, Perilous Vault should. Once I saw End Hostilities as a card in Khans, I then assumed any true control deck would have to include white in order to be successful. The pros however, realized that with Perilous Vault, you are not limited with your colors and can play whichever color combination you choose.

I expect the Vault to stay this high as long as it continues to see play. Dig Through Time is harder to pin down though. Since I've made predictions for the rest of the cards I've mentioned, I may as well give you my opinion about this one too, but know that I am less confidant in here than the others.

At the heart of the matter, the question is whether a set can sustain all of these high-value rares. Can we have $14-20 fetches and another rare that falls into that category also? Based on Magic history, we would say the answer is a definite no.

These cards are creating demand across every format though and that's not something we're used to seeing. Additionally, if the set continues to be worth so much, more and more boxes will be opened until prices start to drop. With demand being as high as it is though, can we open enough boxes to bring the price down? Only time will tell, but right now, the best thing for your wallet is to be opening and flipping boxes.

[cardimage cardname='Hushwing Gryff'][cardimage cardname='Erebos, God of the Dead']

Here are a couple cards that are likely not on your radar. Based on how well Hushwing Gryff performed at the Pro Tour, I have no clue why it can still be bought with shipping under $2. The metagame response to Abzan Midrange seems likely to include Hushwing as part of the answer. Get yours now by trading or buying while they are still low.

Erebos, God of the Dead may seem completely unrelated, but the previously Mono-Black Devotion card might start seeing a lot more play also. One reason why Abzan Midrange is so good is because it can gain a ridiculous amount of life throughout the game. So, if you stall out, your window to win the game is much shorter because you must do so before they gain all their life back. With Sorin, Solemn Visitor, your opponent can take a lot of damage and then jump back up from five to fifteen rather easily. Erebos stops all of these lifegain shenanigans and lets you finish off your opponent. Once Erebos finds a home, we may see him ticking up in price.

Prerelease Promos

Here’s a juicy tidbit of financial information for you. You may not know it, but some of the prerelease promos are creeping up in price. I’ve been collecting prerelease promos since Onslaught and Wizards announcing that there would be a whopping forty promos in Khans of Tarkir made this collection much harder to maintain. Because there are so many promos, their prices are nowhere as limited as before. These promos are much closer in value to the set foil versions. Sadly there is no alternate artwork to consider so the only difference between the foil versions is the prerelease date stamp being present or not on the card.

The first thing you need to know is which promos are available. I’ve seen conflicting information available online, but I managed to get an accurate list of the promos to post here.

Khans Prerelease Cards List (Single Color)

White

Blue

Black

Red

Green

Khans Prerelease Cards List (Multicolored)

Multicolored

Although you can find listings for Savage Knuckleblade, Mantis Rider, and See the Unwritten, those are not actual promos. The rest of the cards on this list are legit. After seeing the whole list, you may be able to pick out the cards that are worth your time, but you don't have to because I did it for you.

Dig Through Time 20
Jeskai Ascendancy 12
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant 12
Anafenza, the Foremost 10
Narset, Enlightened Master 10
Rattleclaw Mystic 10
Siege Rhino 10
Surrak Dragonclaw 10
Bloodsoaked Champion 8
Butcher of the Horde 8

There are a couple five dollar cards as well, but these are the ones worth keeping an eye out for. If you want to buy the full forty for your collection, you are looking at around $200 for the order. That's no small number we're dealing with.

Some players will be actively trying to trade for these, while others will find no value in them. There are great trade opportunities with these promos so keep your eyes out for them. They are somewhat hard to find online as well which makes them even more desirable in your trade binder. Because there are so many less of each of these, there is a lot of opportunity here as well to increase in value. Knowledge is power. Use it wisely.

There's a lot of data from the Pro Tour and Khans in general. I hope this summary has helped you wrap your head around the situation.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Forgotten Lore: Ravnica

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

If you haven't seen this series before, I warn you now: it's awesome.

We all know the affable Evan Erwin from his days of the Magic Show, excitedly sharing new information about the game with you.

jusam djinn

A series about looking at planes long forgotten, this is an awesome stroll down memory lane for some, and brand new information for others. I'm one of the latter crowd, and I found this well worth watching. You can see the full video here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, FreeLeave a Comment on Forgotten Lore: Ravnica

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Pro Tour Q&A

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I'm back from the Pro Tour, and what a wild weekend it was. We saw a ton of viable Standard decks, and a diverse Top 8 that bodes very well for the future of the format.

sandsteppecitadel

With that comes a lot of financial implications, and one of the best ways to address that is with a simple Q&A. So that's what I've done this week.

I'm back from the Pro Tour this week, and with so much having happened, I figured there are two ways to approach my article this week. Either I can pick one thing to write about and leave other stuff out, or I can just open up the mailbag some!

You can find the full article and any questions of your own here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, Free, Khans of TarkirLeave a Comment on Pro Tour Q&A

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: Which Way Should We Go With Jeskai?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

With the first Pro Tour with Khans of Tarkir finally in the books, it's time to really start buckling down on Standard.

While I haven't enjoyed a Pro Tour invite for some time, I was off battling Standard at the Minnesota SCG State Championship. My deck choice, assuming card availability, was a no-brainer--I wanted to play some version of the Mantis Rider deck. I didn't like Jadine's list as Titan's Strength and God's Willing are both contingent on you having one of your 12 creatures in play, and I didn't like Kevin Jones' list because Steam Augury is not what I would consider a playable card.

In my early thoughts on what a Mantis Rider deck would look like, I never truly considered Seeker of the Way, but I tested it for a few matches prior to the event because it's what everybody else seemed to like. It was easily the worst card in the deck and I'm surprised that the non-token versions of Jeskai were still playing it at the Pro Tour. It just runs into Courser of Kruphix and dies to nearly everything.

I didn't want to just cut threats for spells, so I ended up sleeving up Stormbreath Dragon. It seemed like a solid follow up to Mantis Rider to me. This is the list that I ended up playing:

Jeskai Midrange

Creatures

4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Mantis Rider
4 Stormbreath Dragon

Spells

4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
4 Jeskai Charm
4 Stoke the Flames
2 Searing Blood
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Arc Lightning
1 Fated Conflagration
1 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Mystic Monastery
4 Temple of Triumph
4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Temple of Enlightenment
3 Shivan Reef
2 Battlefield Forge
2 Mountain
1 Island
1 Plains

Sideboard

1 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Fated Conflagration
2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Arc Lightning
2 Searing Blood
2 Negate
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Glare of Heresy
2 Erase
1 Magma Spray

I ended up going 4-3 in the event, but liking a lot of elements about the deck. The two biggest weaknesses are that you can't realistically beat Ascendancy Combo in game one if they play Sylvan Caryatid on turn 2, and that 5+ toughness creatures are hard to handle.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Caryatid

I wouldn't adjust the maindeck in any way with regard to battling Ascendancy Combo. You just end up losing too much against other decks when you do something like maindecking an Erase or changing Disdainful Stroke into Negate, and I'd rather just dedicate 1-3 more sideboard slots to beating the Combo deck. You can race them or just kill any non-Caryatid creature to win game one, so I would keep all the dedicated combo hate on the side.

Disdainful Stroke and Fated Conflagration are both concessions to the fact that five toughness creatures are really strong against this deck. I had considered Suspension Field but psyched myself out on Reclamation Sage being more popular/relevant than it is. Conflagration hits Planeswalkers as well, which is a nice upgrade over Field, but it misses Arbor Colossus and you definitely pay for the utility.

Outside of those two weaknesses, I see this deck as very well-positioned, and I believe that one of these weaknesses can be addressed in the maindeck and the other can be fixed out of the sideboard. So let's talk about what worked and what didn't work.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stormbreath Dragon

Stormbreath Dragon hasn't stopped being an awesome card, and I saw a lot of people--myself included--die to it on Saturday. That said, it really doesn't fit in in this deck. Very often this deck is just trying to burn people, and five mana is a lot for four damage. Not to mention that it's much easier to interact with than the other spells in the deck despite protection from white. The major advantage that Dragon has over Sarkhan is that you can play Dragon on consecutive turns and attack for a lot, but that's just not something this deck is really trying to do. I boarded Dragon out in literally every match and I fully intend to cut it from the deck. It was replaced by the following card against everything but Combo:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Five toughness creatures are a problem. Luckily, most of them also have four power. Elspeth seems out of place in what often plays like a burn deck, but sometimes you have to aim a lot of burn spells at creatures, and if all you're drawing is more burn spells, it's tough to actually win games. Elspeth happens to be excellent at winning games. Going forward, I like moving the Elspeths to the maindeck and playing more of a control role. I don't know if the deck is supposed to play more than two, but in a 25 land deck, more than two seems tough to support.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Searing Blood

Then some creatures have two toughness. Searing Blood won't be good in every matchup, but when it is good, it feels like you just casted Time Walk. Elspeth is arguably the bigger innovation in my list, but Searing Blood really solidifies your position against aggressive decks and the mirror featuring Seaker of the Way. I would like to maindeck four, but it's just a blank against the control lists, so I don't see that as a realistic option. Though playing Searing Blood has a bit of a cost itself.

The Mana

My manabase is a lot different from the typical Jeskai Wins deck. I have a lot more red sources to support Fated Conflagration and Searing Blood. This makes Flooded Strand unappealing in my list.

This also means my deck has more taplands. Honestly, though, scrylands make it feel like you start with more than seven cards in your opener, and not playing Seeker of the Way feels like an upgrade as well, so I stand by playing at least 10 if not the full twelve of those. With red being as important as it is, Temple of Enlightenment would be the scryland on the chopping block, and cutting one for a basic and another for a Flooded Strand seems reasonable. Not playing Flooded Strand does have its cost.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dig Through Time

We actually have a bit of trouble casting this card. To the point where Jace's Ingenuity probably just plays better here. Seeing as this deck is often trying to cobble together burn spells, drawing the additional card instead of having the selection might actually be better, though it's hard for me to say at this point. Either way, with Stormbreath Dragon coming out of the deck I definitely want more card draw spells at the top of the curve, especially if I'm only going to play two Elspeth.

Going Forward

With all of these notes in mind, I intend to take this list to Game Day and hopefully something close to the SCG Open in two weeks in Minneapolis. I'm quite confident in this strategy and feel that this list can't be off by more than 4-5 cards, and at this point in time it's just a matter of figuring out how to manage the flex slots and which matchups to cater the maindeck to.

Jeskai Midrange

Creatures

4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Mantis Rider

Spells

1 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Jace's Ingenuity
4 Magma Jet
4 Lightning Strike
4 Jeskai Charm
4 Stoke the Flames
1 Searing Blood
1 Suspension Field
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Fated Conflagration
1 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Mystic Monastery
4 Temple of Triumph
4 Temple of Epiphany
2 Temple of Enlightenment
3 Shivan Reef
2 Battlefield Forge
2 Mountain
1 Island
2 Plains
1 Flooded Strand

Sideboard

1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Suspension Field
3 Arc Lightning
3 Searing Blood
3 Negate
1 Glare of Heresy
3 Erase

While I do believe this list is very strong, I feel like right now is about the worst possible time to be buying into the deck. It's probably true that the Temples will only continue to increase in price, so I hope you already have them. That said, Mantis Rider and Dig Through Time will assuredly go down over time. I just don't see $10 for a regular rare from Khans as being a sustainable price, and I also see Mantis Rider slowly depreciating as well.

That said, this deck is awesome and if you have access to it, then I recommend trying it out. I don't know if it's the best deck, but I'm reasonably confident that either it or Jeskai Ascendancy Combo is.

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Taking the MTGO Satisfaction Survey

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

If you haven't heard, there is an MTGO satisfaction survey in yesterday's MTGO blog post. If you play any amount of Magic Online, this is your chance to voice your concerns—and I know you have many. Whether or not this amounts to anything changing, at the very least, it's therapeutic to have the opportunity to give specific feedback. On the other hand, taking this survey can really shine a light on how unacceptable the MTGO experience really is. Ultimately, I want to give good feedback: I want to be harsh where it's deserved, but also give credit where credit is due. Let's see where I can do that.

feedback

After confirming I have indeed played Magic Online in the last three months, I am asked to rate the following facets of the program on a five-point scale. My comments and ratings follow.

  • Ease of use—No tutorial, no manual, unintuitive layout for new players. 1
  • Game play—Playing is not a smooth experience, but it works. 3
  • Graphics—Have you seen the cards on this client? 1!
  • Community—What community is that, exactly? The overall MTG community is great, but MTGO contributes nothing to that. 1
  • Value—We pay paper prices for packs despite cards being worth significantly less. 1
  • Store—Does not save credit card or PayPal information. You had one job, store. 1
  • Fun—MTG as a game is a 5, but the tilt caused by MTGO bugs is a 1. We'll average it out. 3
  • Program stability—I wish I could give a 0 here. 1
  • Overall Magic Online experience—I mean, it lets me play Magic on the internet, but at what cost? 2

The survey goes on to ask how likely I am to recommend Magic Online to a friend. Let me be explicit here: if you are not already addicted to this client, don't try it. Don't put a single dollar into it. Wait until it is acceptably stable before even downloading it. Some people depend on MTGO for their income, ability to play Magic at all, or to feed their hopeless addiction (most MTGO players fall into this third category). If you're not in one of these camps, do something else with your time.

choiceofdamnations

Another five-point rating scale follows:

  • Event entry options—The client lets me pack in to drafts, so I don't have any real complaints here. 4
  • Magic Online Player Rewards Program—These promo cards are almost always monetarily worthless, even if their non-promo counterparts are worth money. They are also completely useless to Limited-only players. 1
  • Trading—Has never been particularly user-friendly, but the introduction of version 4 led to stability issues that cause all kinds of crashes. 1
  • Clans—Other than the fact that they exist, what support is given to clans? 1
  • Tournament variety—I mostly play draft queues, so I'm not sure this question completely applies to my interests. N/A
  • Format variety—I would like Cube or flashback drafts to be available more often and in greater numbers, but other than that, I guess it's fine? 3
  • General chat—You can chat with people, but why would you want to? People can troll you relentlessly and you'll be forced to jump through hoops to report it, then nothing will ever happen in response. 2
  • Magic Online Championship Series—I earned 11 QPs one season, but I am not willing to grind enough to bother qualifying for the MOCS. N/A
  • Multiplayer—Have never used. N/A
  • MTGO.com—This used to be a solid 3, maybe even a 4. Then they updated Daily MTG. 1
  • Magic Online newsletter—Nothing special, but not broken or anything. Took me forever to realize you had to opt in. 3
  • Digital set redemption—I redeemed a few sets when it cost $5, but haven't even considered it after the cost was upped to $25 with the release of Gatecrash. This has been horrible for the MTGO economony, crashing pack and singles prices in one swift cash-grab. -1,000,000
  • Deck building—As a drafter, I think deck building is improved since you can do it during the draft. Downsides compared to version 3: it's annoyingly difficult to select multiple cards, sometimes cards refuse to move into the piles where you drag them, deck submission errors can ruin whole events. 3

buildersbane

Finishing with that page, we move to another page...with another five-point rating scale. This time we're rating phrases as they apply to Magic Online.

  • Has exciting special events—The crashes are certainly exciting! I guess some of the random weird Sealed events (like APRILFOOLS) are okay, though I usually just play real formats. 2
  • Is competitive—Here, finally, I can in good conscience give a 5 to something. If you want to improve as a player, the right queues on MTGO will give you the skilled opponents you need to get there. 5
  • Is social—Ha. 1
  • Fun to collect—Given that cards tend to crash in value after rotating out of Standard and the redemption period, the last thing I want to do is collect MTGO cards. I sell as soon as I can get a good price. 1
  • Can easily navigate through the game—Once you're used to the client, this is mostly true, but new players are generally completely lost. 2
  • Lets you use your imagination—What kind of question is this? 1
  • Has exciting large-scale events—Again, this only gets better than a 1 if you find crashes exciting (and I have to admit, they kind of are). 2
  • Easy to find opponents—It's not hard to fill up a draft queue, but when I tried to jam some Pauper games a while back, I was unable to do so. 3
  • Has appealing graphics—Nope. 1
  • Lets me play how I want to play—I want to play on demand without having to commit a minimum of two to three hours, so absolutely not. Also, Cube is not available 365 days a year. 1
  • Can play when it fits my schedule—See above. This is honestly one of the worst parts of MTGO, and it could be so much better, as Matt Sperling covered quite a while ago. More often than not, I want to play Magic but can't commit so much time, so I end up playing Hearthstone despite wanting to play Magic instead. 1
  • Captures the excitement of the paper-based card game—Besides bugs, crashes, the impersonal nature of online play, and getting to play in one's skivvies, this really is a pretty decent analog. 4
  • Can be played anywhere—My first instinct was to give this a high rating, but then I realized there is not a tablet or smartphone version of MTGO. 2
  • Has an ample variety of formats—I guess this is fine? I only play Limited. 4

There are some demographic questions that follow that are mostly uninteresting, but one of them was pretty hard to answer: "How much do you spend on Magic Online in a typical week?" I imagine the vast majority of players would have a very hard time quantifying this answer, since so much of the MTGO economy is based on selling cards for tickets and using those tickets for currency. I imagine Wizards of the Coast will not get a very satisfactory or accurate answer to this question.

icatianmoneychanger

The survey next asks a telling question: "In the past two weeks when playing Magic Online, how often has your experience ended with a crash or with the client becoming unresponsive?" A question like this is only asked if there's a problem, but we already know that's the case.

Next, the survey moves on to ask some questions about their customer service team, the ORCs. Despite a name conjuring such unpleasant images in one's mind, this is one area where I think MTGO is strong. The ORC team doesn't always have the power to help you out, but they are always responsive, friendly, and as helpful as WOTC allows them to be. Good on you, ORCs.

ironclaworcs

The survey closes with a very interesting set of questions, given that Hasbro reportedly doesn't see Hearthstone as competition to MTGO:

  • Have you played Hearthstone within the past three months?
  • How often have you played Hearthstone during the past three months?
  • On a scale of 0 to 10, how likely are you to recommend Hearthstone to a friend?

What I wouldn't give to compare these answers to the analog questions for MTGO.

As for the last question there, this is such an interesting dichotomy. Whereas I think MTG is the greatest game ever made, I would strongly advise against playing MTGO due to its numerous flaws. On the other hand, Hearthstone is a vastly inferior game, but due to being easy-to-use and free-to-play, I would absolutely recommend giving it a shot. If you don't like it, it doesn't cost you anything—if only the same could be said about MTGO.

leeroyjenkins
At least MTGO doesn't errata cards on a whim.

Besides a few more demographic questions, that's the complete survey. Like I said, filling something out like this is therapeutic (as is writing about the experience here on Quiet Speculation). But it also shines a light on the stark reality that very few aspects of this client are anywhere close to acceptable. If you play MTGO, be sure to fill out this survey. If we voice our dissatisfaction in sufficient numbers, maybe, just maybe, we might be able to effect some change at MTGO headquarters.

Avatar photo

Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

View More By Danny Brown

Posted in Free, MTGO4 Comments on Taking the MTGO Satisfaction Survey

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

KTK Limited Focus: Enemy Color Pairs

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Every Draft format will reward you for staying open as long as possible, and Khans of Tarkir is no exception. In a multicolored format like this, though, it can be hard to stay with just one color early in the draft. When in doubt, sticking to enemy color pairs (white-black, blue-red, black-green, red-white, and green-blue) will leave you with the most options moving forward.

borzhov
via Imgur

The reason for this is because of the way the wedges are arranged. A given enemy color pair can fit into two clans, whereas allied color pairs go in only one. For example, Mardu contains both Boros (RW) and Orzhov (WB) for enemy pairs, but only Rakdos (BR) for allied. So if you start pack one taking red and white cards, this allows you to move into either Jeskai or Mardu depending on what you see in the subsequent packs.

The same concept applies to mana fixing, too. Although all of the refuge lands are good, the enemy color ones should be valued more highly because they apply in more situations. If you know you're taking a refuge in a pack and have your choice between two different ones, err on the side of the enemy color one if all other things are equal. It's also worth noting that the two-color gold cards in the format are all enemy colors, which just gives more incentive to go into that type of pair, especially if you're sticking strictly to two colors.

alltennewrefugelands

I prioritize lands in this format very highly, even if they are not useful to me at the time I pick them. If it's between a fringe playable and a land, I snag the mana maker the vast majority of the time. In my last draft, I was building a grindy white-black warrior deck splashing green for Siege Rhino and Abzan Charm. During the draft, I picked up two Tranquil Coves, a Thornwood Falls, and a Flooded Strand (yaaaaaay!), but had exactly zero blue cards worth splashing.

Then in pack three, my twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth picks were Mistfire Weaver, Treasure Cruise, Treasure Cruise. Because I had snagged the blue fixing over sideboard cards and fringe playables, I was able to jam those powerful cards at virtually no cost to my deck or draft. Spoiler: Ancestral Recall is pretty good in this format.

So be aware of the best ways to stay open. Snagging lands early and falling into the colors that are being passed to you is especially powerful in a format that requires incredibly consistent mana bases to cast its best spells. Being constantly vigilant with regards to your mana base will help you eke out those extra wins as you move forward in Khans of Tarkir.

Also: the banners are bad. Don't run them. That is all.

Breaking Down the Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir Top Eight

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir saw five different archetypes in the top eight, with three copies of Jeskai Wins, two copies of Abzan Midrange, one copy of Abzan Aggro, one copy of Blue-Black Control, and one copy of Jeskai Ascendancy Combo. We saw other decks throughout the day, but these seem to have been the dominant archetypes at the event, so let's get familiar with what you're likely to see at your upcoming tournaments, be they FNMs or GPs.

Jeskai Wins

Pure and simple, this is a burn deck. The format has a lot of powerful cards in these colors, so decks can be tuned in a number of different ways depending on your playstyle and what you expect the metagame to look like. Despite this, there were some slots that were absolutely claimed:

lightningstrikelightningstrikelightningstrikelightningstrike

Magma JetMagma JetMagma JetMagma Jet

Jeskai charmJeskai charmJeskai charmJeskai charm

stoketheflames1stoketheflames1stoketheflames1stoketheflames1

If you're looking to play this archetype, this is where you should be starting the deckbuilding process. Only two other cards were four-ofs in all three versions:

Mantis RiderMantis RiderMantis RiderMantis Rider

mysticmonasterymysticmonasterymysticmonasterymysticmonastery

Evidenced from this event, a Jeskai Wins deck starts with these 24 cards. Everything else is up to metagaming and personal taste. From planeswalkers (Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Chandra, Pyromaster) to gods (Keranos, God of Storms, to fatties (Stormbreath Dragon, Prognostic Sphinx), to midrange beaters (Goblin Rabblemaster, Brimaz, King of Oreskos), this archetype is wide open to go in a number of different directions.

If you're looking to play this deck, you should obtain the indisputable burn pieces and Mystic Monasterys first. Mantis Rider's current price is a bit unrealistic for a fall set rare, so if you want to play the deck right away, be aware that you are paying more for Mantis Rider than you would be in a couple months—this is fine if you're just anxious to get playing, but if you're looking to pick up cards at their lowest prices, now is not the time.

Also worth acquiring is the manabase. Each of the Jeskai Wins decks in the top eight contained some number of Temple of Epiphany, Temple of Triumph, Flooded Strand, Shivan Reef, and Battlefield Forge. Only one of those cards (Flooded Strand—the one from Khans of Tarkir) is likely to go down from here, so picking up your playsets should be a priority for the others.

Other than that, you can pick up the other pieces as the metagame evolves and as your preferences make themselves more evident. As always, keep in mind that last year's cards are likely to increase in price, while the new cards are likely to decrease over the next few months. Prioritize your pickups accordingly.

Abzan Midrange

You can probably guess the four-ofs that the Abzan Midrange decks have in common, so let's just get them out of the way now:

ThoughtseizeThoughtseizeThoughtseizeThoughtseize

sylvancaryatidsylvancaryatidsylvancaryatidsylvancaryatid

courserofkruphixcourserofkruphixcourserofkruphixcourserofkruphix

Siege-Rhino-Khans-of-Tarkir-SpoilerSiege-Rhino-Khans-of-Tarkir-SpoilerSiege-Rhino-Khans-of-Tarkir-SpoilerSiege-Rhino-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

windsweptheathwindsweptheathwindsweptheathwindsweptheath

sandsteppecitadelsandsteppecitadelsandsteppecitadelsandsteppecitadel

Not at all a surprising list there, and when you start with 24 cards like that, you know the deck is going to be expensive. In addition to those choices, both decks utilized some number of planeswalkers, mixing up to good effect copies of Sorin, Solemn Visitor, Ajani, Mentor of Heroes, Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Nissa, Worldwaker, and even a copy of Liliana Vess. Both decks played at least two copies of Wingmate Roc, and both played a total of seven copies of Abzan Charm and Hero's Downfall. The sideboard choices looked pretty different, but the main decks were very similar save for some different numbers of particular cards.

This is an expensive deck. If you're looking to play it, hopefully you have last year's cards ready to go and only need a few additions to make the deck work. Again, KTK cards will mostly only go down from here, so focus on picking up M15 and Theros block stuff for now. Many of these cards have already spiked and are unlikely to go down while in Standard (Caryatid, Courser, Downfall, etc.), so be sure you really want to pursue playing this deck before shelling out. This deck won the event and was a major part of the metagame, and it may very well be this year's Mono-Black Devotion moving forward.

Abzan Aggro

Mike Sigrist piloted this list into the top eight:

PTKTK Abzan Aggro by Mike Sigrist

Creatures

4 Fleecemane Lion
4 Rakshasa Deathdealer
2 Heir of the Wilds
3 Anafenza, the Foremost
4 Herald of Torment
4 Siege Rhino

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
1 Ulcerate
3 Abzan Charm
4 Hero's Downfall
3 Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Lands

4 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Windswept Heath
4 Temple of Malady
1 Temple of Silence
4 Caves of Koilos
2 Llanowar Wastes
2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Plains
2 Forest

Sideboard

1 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
3 Bile Blight
2 Despise
3 Drown in Sorrow
2 Erase
1 Silence the Believers
1 Whip of Erebos
2 Wingmate Roc

This deck eschews Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix for a lower curve and more aggressive starts. Whether you want to be playing midrange or aggro, what is clear from comparing this list to the other Abzan decks in the top eight is that there are a few cards you really need if you want to be playing this color combination:

windsweptheathThoughtseizeDownfallSiege-Rhino-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

There are other cards in common between the aggro and midrange decks, but these seem to be the indisputable staples of the color combination, in addition to the uncommon Abzan Charm. My impression is that this build is just not as powerful as the midrange list, but with so many cards in common, if you want to try one build first, it shouldn't be too hard to switch over to the other.

Blue-Black Control

Ivan Floch flocked into consecutive PT top eights, each time with a control list. Here's what he played this time:

PTKTK UB Control by Ivan Floch

Creatures

4 Prognostic Sphinx

Removal

3 Bile Blight
2 Drown in Sorrow
4 Hero's Downfall
2 Silence the Believers

Disruption

4 Despise
4 Disdainful Stroke
4 Dissolve
2 Thoughtseize

Selection/Draw

4 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Dismal Backwater
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
1 Temple of Malady
1 Temple of Mystery
1 Urborb, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Island
4 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Bile Blight
3 Clever Impersonator
2 Drown in Sorrow
1 Pharika's Cure
2 Negate
1 Pearl Lake Ancient
2 Returned Phalanx
1 Set Adrift
1 Silence the Believers
1 Thoughtseize

Some big names played this deck last weekend, including Andrew Cuneo and Owen Turtenwald (who finished eleventh). This is a classic control list, with very few creatures or win conditions, lots of removal and disruption, and some selection and card draw. Control decks often take a while to emerge in a metagame, so it's cool to see one that did well this early in the format.

This is actually a fairly affordable deck. The cards that are most expensive—Thoughtseize, Hero's Downfall, Polluted Delta, and other lands—are playable in other archetypes as well as eternal formats (except for Downfall), so buying them to play this list is not likely to end up being a waste, either in the short- or long-run. You can count on the selection of cards to change and evolve as the metagame becomes more established, but picking up the obvious staples shouldn't be a bad play.

Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

A combo deck in Standard is a beautiful thing, and Lee Shi Tian's top eight finish with the deck proves that it may just be a realistic strategy in competitive Standard. Here's the list he ran:

PTKTK Jeskai Ascendancy Combo by Lee Shi Tian

Creatures

4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
3 Kiora's Follower

Spells

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
4 Retraction Helix
4 Commune with the Gods
3 Tormenting Voice
3 Dig Through Time
4 Dragon Mantle
2 Twinflame
2 Briber's Purse
1 Nissa, Worldwaker

Lands

4 Mana Confluence
2 Frontier Bivouac
2 Temple of Abandon
2 Temple of Mystery
2 Temple of Plenty
2 Yavimaya Coast
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Flooded Strand
1 Plains
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Forest

Sideboard

4 Savage Knuckleblade
3 Lightning Strike
2 Polukranos, World Eater
3 Swan Song
3 Arc Lightning

If you don't know how this combo works, here's a quick breakdown:

  1. Play at least one mana dork (preferably more) plus Jeskai Ascendancy.
  2. Play Retraction Helix on your mana dork (Sylvan Caryatid's hexproof makes it the best target).
  3. Play cantrips and selection spells to draw cards, net mana (with multiple dorks), loot, and make your dudes bigger.
  4. Eventually, play Briber's Purse for X=0, bounce it with your Helixed creature, and repeat as many times as necessary to set up a win.
  5. Attack your opponent with one or more gigantic dudes (who got that way from all the bonuses granted by Ascendancy).

I honestly didn't think this deck was powerful enough in Standard to be successful at the PT, but it seems I was wrong. The deck is generally inexpensive, which is great, but there are some outliers to the inexpensive claim like Sylvan Caryatid and Nissa.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

Jeskai Ascendancy at around $8 is tough. On one hand, it's powerful, both in Modern and Standard. On the other hand, there's already rumblings of it being too powerful in Modern, meaning its future there is murky. On the third hand, it's a fall set rare and is only good in one very specific archetype, and is three colors to boot. On the fourth hand (this is a lot of hands), it appears to be good, and if it's not banned, it could very well be a metagame-defining card in Modern, if not Standard, and cards like that tend to be expensive.

I'm going to close today by giving a big, "I don't know," on Jeskai Ascendancy. There are plenty of people out there writing about this one, so feel free to read all the opinions and form your own hypothesis on this card's future. If you're looking to play the deck in either Modern or Standard, paying $30 for your playset is not unreasonable. If you're looking to make money, that may be possible, but this isn't exactly the type of card I like to buy and there are simply too many variables for me to feel good saying either to buy in or avoid. So I'm pleading the fifth here.

What do you think about Ascendancy, the decks in the top eight, and this format in general? It's nice to be out from under the thumb of Sphinx's Revelation and Mono-Black Devotion, right? Let us know what you thought of this weekend in the comments.

Insider: [MTGO] Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir Aftermath

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The three days of the Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir roller coaster are finally over. How did you do?

Prices have been all over the places and heavily influenced by speculation as it seemed. After two or three months of a slow upward trend, several cards lost 30% of their value or more in less than 48 hours because of disappointing performances at this Pro Tour. On MTGO Khans of Tarkir cards were seeing 200% spike in hours only to lose about the same 200% the next day. As anticipated it was wild, really wild.

After a weekend with a lot of price volatility on MTGO, we may have to wait for the dust to settle to see more clearly beyond obvious winners and losers. Apart from a "gamble" on five Khans of Tarkir mythics bought on Friday in anticipation of the PT, I didn't touch any other card. I'm glad I did so; prices were changing too fast for the limited time I could spend online.

Some money could have been made on MTGO this weekend and I hope you didn't get burnt by holding your specs more than two or three hours. Taking a break for a cigarette or to go to the bathroom could have been a costly mistake on Saturday.

I was checking prices regularly on Goatbots to get an idea of what was going on. The only impression I had was that euphoria and panic were going hand in hand for three days. With paper Magic you have to wait at least two or three days before your get your cards, and you'll probably need a couple more days to sell them. Buying and selling happening in a matter of seconds on MTGO, I felt like speculators were buying from other speculators and were also selling to other speculators.

Two days later things have calmed down a little bit. I'm glad Mtggoldfish.com gives an update of prices only once a day. This way it doesn't account for the madness that took over MTGO this past weekend and price trends make a little bit more sense.

Lets see today what are the perspectives for our investments now that Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir is over. The Standard format seems rather open to me and with the exception of few cards that may not have any upside in the short term I feel confident for most of my positions going forward.

A Few Words About Khans of Tarkir

I said it before and I'll say it here again: I don't have any desire to speculate with Khans of Tarkir now. 99% of the cards are going to get cheaper week after week. If one or two mythics might sustain a high price tag in the midterm it is however totally helpless for rares.

My only move with KTK was to "gamble" on Friday by buying an about equal amount of Tix of Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, Wingmate Roc, Anafenza, the Foremost, Ashcloud Phoenix and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant. These mythics were the ones that seemed to have to most potential for a quick flip at that point in time. Based on what happened with Theros mythics during Pro Tour Theros I was decided to sell everything by Saturday night after the Top 8 announcement at the latest whatever the prices of these cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

I ended up breaking even with Sarkhan, Wingmate and Sidisi and with a +80% gain with Anafenza and the Phoenix. If I generated a net profit at the end of this, prices were already way back down for some of these mythics as early as Saturday night, underlying the high volatility of prices this weekend.

As you have maybe seen this weekend a lot of prices doubled or tripled after some camera time or even a simple tweet! Pearl Lake Ancient was 1.5 Tix on Friday, 5 Tix on Saturday and 2 Tix on Sunday for example. If you haven't sold your KTK specs now I'm afraid your are stuck with only two options: cut your losses now or hold them for a year and hope for the best.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pearl Lake Ancient

M15

No big surprises with M15. Nissa, Worldwaker is losing steam, Goblin Rabblemaster is still a powerhouse, and Perilous Vault might be the M15 breakthrough.

On the planeswalker side Chandra, Pyromaster was in several deck lists, including a playset in Levy's Mardu Control, and I expect Chandra to rise a little bit more. Besides Chandra, no other planeswalker really made a place for herself. Having bought Garruk, Apex Predator significantly higher than Ajani, Liliana and Jace, I'm on the verge of selling him now as I expect Garruk to converge to a 4 Tix base line until more favorable times for him.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Pyromaster

None of the Souls made the cut either. I'm holding on to them for now, I got them cheap and they might get played as the metagame evolves.

Perilous Vault was a key board sweeper in U/B Control lists and made a nice jump from 3 Tix to 7 Tix this weekend. While a little bit expensive in term of mana, the ability to clear all nonland permanents at once is pretty relevant. U/B Control decks paved the way for the Vault, and other control decks may want to explore the benefit of Perilous Vault now, that's all I wish.

I didn't sell my Vaults yet and as M15 is going to gain value over time I'll wait and see if blue-black control decks, or any other decks using the Vault, start appearing in DE's on MTGO. If so, 15 Tix are totally possible in the short to medium term.

As for the rares, due to a poor performance of green devotion decks at the PT, Hornet Queen, Chord of Calling and Genesis Hydra are losing ground. I'm not selling them yet as I think G/x devotion decks should remain popular among a fair share of competitive players online. However I'll be vigilant to take advantage of any metagame shift to sell these.

Hushwing Gryff is gaining some momentum now--being Modern- and Standard-playable should help it rise more permanently above 1 Tix. I won't be too greedy with this one and may sell it very soon. After all I bought some copies at 0.05 Tix only a week ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hushwing Gryff

All the M15 painlands with the exception of Yavimaya Coast saw a decent amount of play this weekend, not surprisingly considering most decks play three colors. 5 Tix is the price I'm waiting for to sell my M15 painlands. Sooner or later all of them should reach that price tag and I'm ready to be patient with all of them.

Theros

Although everything did pretty much okay, several of my Theros investments didn't perform as well as expected.

Xenagos, the Reveler was nowhere to be seen--I sold my copies, maybe a little bit too much in a rush here. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver was also among my sells. I don't see them being major players in Standard in a near future so I'd rather get some Tix back now and move on. I'm also on the verge of selling Stormbreath Dragon. I'm not sure it can really compete with Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker.

Despite some play, Polukranos, World Eater lost value this weekend. However I'm pretty confident this hydra will see more play soon as several pros including Gaudenis Vidugiris and Jon Finkel played a variant of G/x devotion or constellation deck including See the Unwritten, Polukranos, Hornet Queen and other green devotion cards. G/x decks will still be among the crowd favorite.

Theros holds a lot of value and prices kept their overall flat/upward trend despite the big swings we've seen this weekend. Elspeth, Sylvan Caryatid, the Temples, Hero's Downfall, Thoughtseize were present. I expect them to gain a little more value.

In the area of cards to watch or acquire now, Prognostic Sphinx, Chained to the Rocks and Fleecemane Lion have shown more than fringe play this weekend. They might be undervalued now. If you're looking for the next Pack Rat one of these cards might be it.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave was among the cards I sold on Sunday. No appearances at all this weekend is a pretty direct message to me and I don't want to risk anything with a 9 Tix mythic.

Even if Courser of Kruphix lost 3 to 4 Tix from Thursday to Sunday, this card is still a pillar of any green-based deck, and was featured as a playset in the PT-winning deck. I expect the centaur is going back to 15 Tix soon. What is its price limit? Somewhere between 15 and 20 Tix I would say, at least that's the price range I'm targeting with my copies.

Brimaz, King of Oreskos and the Temples are still in my portfolio and I expect to make a little bit more profit with them. Herald of Torment kept its momentum through the PT and may be a staple of Abzan aggro decks. Hero of Iroas made a big jump from 0.3 to 2 Tix after Todd Anderson's list was posted. Is it here to last? Not very likely, but after all these kinds of "cheap" aggro decks do great on MTGO if they're efficient enough.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brimaz, King of Oreskos

Journey Into Nyx

The value set. As of Monday, a JOU set was more expensive than an M15 one and barely less expensive than a THS set! Everything in a third set can be transformed into gold if played in a Tier 1 deck. And when half a dozen cards get played in Tier 1 decks the set turns into a gold mine. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes is the most recent addition after its price doubled. This Ajani confirmed in the following days the card could reach 20 Tix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

The two JOU temples were the most played temples at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. Temple of Malady is already at 15 Tix and 20 Tix doesn't seem impossible. Temple of Epiphany has already tripled since last July. I really should sell my copies but it's a four-of in the most represented deck of this past weekend, Jeskai Tempo.

If Keranos, God of Storms is incorporated into more sideboards, its 14 Tix price will not only sustain but might go up a little bit more. I would not be too greedy on that one though.

My only disappointment here was Prophetic Flamespeaker. Totally unseen. I bought several playsets back in June--time to cut my loss, this mythic could be 2 Tix soon. Maybe Modern can "save" it and in this case buying it back in a month or two will be a good idea. For now it's a big flop.

Last Words

First of all, I might consider going camping during the next Pro Tour. Too much volatility and too much speculation with nothing in the end. Prices were all over the place and I'm not sure they reflected anything else but speculators' madness.

I wonder if I would have made better deals if I had simply shut down my computer for three days and come back only on Monday. Even cards that dipped a lot because of poor results are coming up now. With the exception of well-timed quick flips, selling and buying into the Pro Tour hype is once again not a very good strategy.

Also, several cards such as Courser of Kruphix, Mana Confluence and Kiora, the Crashing Wave reached a peak a couple of weeks before the Pro Tour. This reminded me that when a fair profit is reached, with or without an incoming Pro Tour, selling is always a good move.

If the madness we had this weekend has to become the norm, with prices dropping in a matter of hours, It may become very relevant to sell whatever has generated a significant profit before the Pro Tour. Since even cards that see some play at the Pro Tour drop in price, as speculators pour their copies in the market faster than real players buy them, the Pro Tour weekend might actually constitute a buying opportunity. For instance, Courser of Kruphix reached 17 Tix a month ago and is now at ~12 Tix despite having won the PT.

Finally, with Khans of Tarkir being the center of attention now on MTGO drafts, I'm convinced that M15 and Theros block Standard staples will go up after the storm of this weekend.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation