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Insider: Updates to Vintage Grixis Keeper

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While I'm around six pieces of Power shy of getting into Vintage on MTGO, I have been able to regularly play an unlimited proxy live Vintage event on a near-weekly basis for a while now.

In the last few events I've played, I've felt I actually knew what was going on in the format and have been working on tuning Grixis Keeper. You can find the list that I've been building off and a tournament report here.

Grixis Keeper

creatures

1 Myr Battlesphere
4 Dark Confidant
2 Snapcaster Mage

spells

1 Tezzeret the Seeker
1 Dack Fayden
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Force of Will
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Sol Ring
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Tinker
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Time Walk
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Preordain
3 Mental Misstep
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Drain
1 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Flusterstorm
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll

lands

3 Volcanic Island
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Polluted Delta
1 Island
2 Underground Sea

sideboard

2 Lightning Bolt
1 Flusterstorm
4 Ingot Chewer
1 Rack and Ruin
4 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Pyroblast
1 Mountain

The above list is leaning more on the side of control than combo. And, to be fair, any build of Keeper isn't going to be an especially heavy combo deck.

To be even more fair, you don't get a lot of flex slots in Vintage. That said, the more that I've played with the deck, the more I've shied away from the controlling cards. I think that the best way to illustrate what I mean is to start with the current list that I'm playing:

Grixis Keeper

creatures

1 Myr Battlesphere
4 Dark Confidant
1 Snapcaster Mage

spells

1 Tezzeret the Seeker
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Force of Will
1 Black Lotus
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Emerald
1 Sol Ring
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Tinker
1 Time Vault
1 Voltaic Key
1 Time Walk
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Fire // Ice
1 Toxic Deluge
4 Mental Misstep
1 Mana Drain
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Flusterstorm
1 Spell Pierce
1 Yawgmoth's Will
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll

lands

3 Volcanic Island
1 Library of Alexandria
1 Tolarian Academy
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Underground Sea

sideboard

1 Dack Fayden
1 Flusterstorm
4 Ingot Chewer
4 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Yixlid Jailer
2 Pyroblast
1 Pyroclasm

Most of the slots remain unchanged, but this is Vintage and a handful of changes can result in a world of difference. Any card that can be found with Merchant Scroll is actually representing more than a playset with the slew of tutors available.

On the topic of tutors, I believe the best way to explain the evolution of the deck is to explain the changes card by card.

Gifts Ungiven

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

As I moved slots around, I wanted another hay-maker in the deck.

I initially elected to play a third copy of Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Jace is definitely a nice one, but something about the slot was lacking. Redundant Jaces were always good to have when my opponent countered the first, but it was a lot of copies of a card to have in the deck that didn't do much when I was under the gun.

Gifts Ungiven, alternatively, can tutor for Time Vault, Voltaic Key and some combination of Snapcaster Mage, Yawgmoth's Will and another value card if any of these had already been drawn. Access to a card that can singularly set up a winning turn has been excellent, and I feel a little silly for not running it previously.

The singleton-esque nature of the deck adds a lot of play to Gifts, but also a lot of complexity. The card is so contextual that it's hard to craft go-to piles outside of the aforementioned Vault-Key-Snap-Will and this disruption suite:

You can also just value Gifts for Ancestral Recall and... other cards. Probably Snapcaster Mage and Yawgmoth's Will.

There's no card that challenges you to know your deck more than Gifts Ungiven, and my greatest recommendation on how to play the card is to practice extensively.

Mana Drain

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Drain

Mana Drain is an excellent card, and one that is completely unprintable by today's design standards. In some respects, Drain is a reactive card with proactive elements, but, for the most part, drawing Mana Drain means that you need to leave up two blue mana or you've functionally mulliganed.

This deck just wants to jam Bobs, Tinker and Jaces, and I haven't had many windows to just leave up mana and do nothing. Having access to one is pretty low cost and can be used to set up Myr Battlesphere very easily, but this deck really prefers proactive counterspells such as Force of Will.

Flusterstorm

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flusterstorm

With apologies to Mindbreak Trap, Flusterstorm is the best option for a counterspell to win counter wars as well as wreck a Tendrils of Agony.

That said, much like Mindbreak Trap, Flusterstorm performs pretty poorly in other roles. It can't counter Jaces or artifacts, and that counts for a lot in Vintage. I initially boarded up to three copies against other blue decks, but there was nothing that caused me to lose in these matches more than drawing too many Flusterstorms.

One copy is fine, and I do tutor for it on occasion, but I really only want multiples against Storm decks.

Spell Pierce

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spell Pierce

All of the reasons to Spell Pierce are listed in the section on Flusterstorm. It's not always difficult to pay for Spell Pierce in a format where they let you play Black Lotus, and that explains why I only like one copy.

Spell Pierce, like Mana Drain, most commonly plays a reactive role, but leaving up one blue is considerably easier than leaving up two.

Dack Fayden

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dack Fayden

Outside of a random blowout or two against Shops, Dack hasn't been doing it for me in this list. At least when I tap all of my mana for Jace I feel like I'll generally win the game when he resolves. Looting is so much worse than Brainstorming in a deck that's filthy with singletons, and Dack doesn't actually build to anything when you plus him. It's true that stealing a Mox will commonly be an option, but that's not what I want to be doing for three mana.

I do really like him against Shops though. The Ingot Chewers alone have made that matchup feel very positive for me, and Dack and Rack and Ruin seems like too extensive an insurance policy, so cutting R&R in favor of moving Dack to the board has worked well.

Lightning Bolt

I love Lightning Bolt in Modern and Legacy.

In those formats, Lightning Bolt is a split card between Lava Spike and Terminate. In this deck, the Lava Spike is essentially never what you want to be doing and the removal aspect is pretty restrictive.

Bolt can be aimed at a Jace, but savvy players will just +2 it anyway. If I'm going to play a spell that kills things, I would rather that it have higher potential  impact.

Toxic Deluge

There was an error retrieving a chart for Toxic Deluge

Scott Fielder isn't wrong when he says that Toxic Deluge is criminally underplayed in Vintage.

There are a lot of things that Lightning Bolt can't kill. Conversely, Toxic Deluge kills all the things. Young Pyromancer? I'll kill you and your little friends, too. Blightsteel Colossus? I'll pay 11. Worth it. True-Name Nemesis? Easy game.

It's hard to imagine not playing this card in Vintage being correct.

Fire // Ice

Fire // Ice is a bit worse at killing things than Lightning Bolt. Most notably, Lodestone Golem slips through the cracks.

Upsides, however, include that it can't be Mental Missteped, that it can be Merchant Scrolled for, and that it can be pitched to Force of Will. This is a fairly common inclusion and I've been happy with it thus far.

Mox Emerald

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Emerald

My initial list suggests that I'm not really in the off-color mox camp.

I am, however, in the turn one Dark Confidant camp. Turn one Bob wins a staggering percentage of games, and while I'm not ready to commit to Mox Pearl (ew), Mox Emerald has gotten a very confident nod.

Snapcaster Mage

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

Former Standard all-star, best card in Modern, and Legacy playable, Snapcaster Mage is simultaneously at its best and worst in Vintage. Flashback Ancestral Recall? Amazing. Die with a 2/1 creature in my hand? Less so. There is no format where Snapcaster Mage has more varied power than Vintage and it's not a particularly close comparison.

With Gifts Ungiven and Yawgmoth's Will in tow, Snapcaster is unquestionably uncuttable. Hell, even just by virtue of playing Ancestral Recall, I'm extremely happy with his inclusion. Two was definitely not a bad number to have, and cutting the second was largely due to needing to fit in all of the other elements of the deck.

Mental Misstep

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mental Misstep

If there were any slot that I would consider converting to the second Snapcaster, it would be the fourth Mental Misstep.

I racked my brain for a while after moving the Dack Fayden to the sideboard over what to replace him with in the maindeck. Third Jace and Misdirection were also strong considerations, but ultimately the decision came down to the fact that Mental Misstep is just so good against everything but Shops.

The ability to counter Ancestral Recall speaks for itself, and the strength against Dredge is not to be understated. Even with six dedicated sideboard slots in the matchup, Dredge can be tough to beat, and having counters that interacts with most of their spells for "free" is a very good place to be.

The Mana

A few weekends ago, I Top 4'd the local "Big Vintage" tournament with a list somewhere between the above two, despite mulliganing what must have been 1,000 no-land hands.

At this point I decided that the deck could really just use another land and elected to chose a fetchland. I have yet to play a game where I was just ground out and Wastelanded to death in Vintage, so I really don't have much interest in basics. Fetchlands are the only tri-color option, and I've been happy with it so far.

Along those same lines, I didn't see much reason to keep the sideboard Mountain around with both the extra land and the extra Mox to help me beat Sphere effects in the deck.

I will grant it's possible that I am entirely wrong about this and that a basic Island and/or a basic Mountain could be shoring up some matchup that I'm unfamiliar with, or even that my games against Shops and BUG control have not been entirely indicative of the matchups, but for now I have been happy with this mana configuration.

The Sideboard

This is an oversimplification, but there are more or less four archetypes that Vintage can be broken down into. Dredge, Shops, blue decks and Hatebears. "Blue decks" can range from very combo-ish to very controlling, but outside of things like Oath of Druids, there isn't a lot that shows up in any sub-category of these generalities that influences my sideboarding.

Dredge and Shops play fundamentally different games than anything else, and thus require radical sideboarding.

That leaves room for two Pyroblasts against blue decks, a Flusterstorm if they're storm-centric blue decks, and a Pyroclasm to take out Hatebears and to tackle opposing Bobs.

In order to run this light on sideboard slots, the maindeck has to be configured to have good matchups against blue decks and Hatebears. The blue matchups have been favorable in all of my experience and Hatebears does us a favor by being the worst archetype in the format by a country mile.

Closing Thoughts

I believe it's an extremely bold claim to say that there's a best deck in Vintage. Keeper has been the best deck for me and the expected metagame in the area, but it would be foolish to not switch around a few cards in a Shops or Dredge infested metagame. Generally, blue decks will be the most popular and I can confidently recommend my list as a good starting point.

Vintage has really grown on me as a format, though I still prefer Cube and Legacy. I would be very happy to hear any critiques of my list and/or reasoning from any Vintage aficionados out there.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Behavioral Economics, Part 1

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Welcome back, readers!

Today's topic is a deep one, but one that I personally find incredibly fascinating. First we'll need to define behavioral economics. According to Wikipedia, the basic definition is this:

"[The study of] the effects of psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions and the consequences for market prices, returns, and the resource allocation."

Now you might be asking yourself what does this have to do with Magic the Gathering Finance? And the answer is...a whole lot.

Shortcuts: Because the Brain Is Always So Busy

To begin with we'll do a little experiment. Suppose you're in the market for a graded Unlimited Black Lotus. Now suppose you go to a major retailer and they have three in stock.

  • BGS 9.5- $11,000
  • BGS 9- $6,000
  • BGS 7- $5,000

Which would you pick?

?

?

?

Is this your card?

BGS 9 ul black lotus

A large majority of us would pick the BGS 9. The reason is that our brains like to associate things and recognize patterns whenever possible. The decisions we make are often far more complex than we realize and the brain naturally tries to shortcut them by looking for relationships to make comparison easier.

In this case we see a “lower grade” option at $5,000 but for a little bit more we can get a pretty high grade option for $6,000 and to go only slightly better it will cost us almost double.

Now, how can that help us? Well, if I have three copies of a card, one in NM, one in LP, and one in HP, it means I'll likely move the LP one first if I group them next to each other so that my trade partner can see and directly compare all three simultaneously (assuming we assign a lower value to the LP one and our trade partner isn't a "NM or nothing" kind of person).

If I were instead to spread all three throughout a trade binder I would be forcing my trade partner's brain to recall the previous ones, which may or may not change my trade partner's choice. When the brain is not directly forced to compare it will likely revert back to it's original intent, which for some players means only NM will do, whereas others will go for the cheapest option. Which likely means that you'll either trade off your NM copy or your HP copy but not the LP you want to get rid of.

Relativity

Now let's do another fun experiment. Let's go back to our quest for power. Suppose you enter a major retailer and you're shown the only three pieces of graded power they have.

  • BGS 9 Mox Sapphire-$5000
  • BGS 8 Mox Sapphire-$4300
  • BGS 9 Mox Pearl -$4600

Which do you pick?

?

?

?

Is this your card?

bgs 9 ul mox saphire

In this case we are looking at a concept called relativity. The brain sees one item, another inferior item, and a dissimilar item and it naturally wants to latch onto the highest grade “similar” item.

So in this instance if we have a higher grade item we want to move, it would be best to put it next to an inferior version (if possible) and then something dissimilar.

It is also interesting to note that graded cards allow for this type of reasoning even easier than most. The grading company creates a numerical identifier that the card is associated with and our brains naturally assume that the higher the number the better the card, which is another example of our brain taking a shortcut when trying to make a difficult decision.

Anchors: Why Our Respective "Values" Don't Match

This next concept is an important one that can be applied to all facets of your life. The idea of an "anchor" is that the "first price" we see of something sets it's value and any differences are evaluated compared to that price.

What do I mean by this? Well, say you missed out on the last Pro Tour coverage and a card you wanted to pick up for your deck ended up being the all-star of the format. You could have got all four copies last week for $4 total. Now each card is $5.

The first person you walk up to and ask for said card will pull them out and then give you your total of $20, but your brain has previously affixed the price of $1 per card. You balk at the new price because so recently it was much cheaper. The $1 price is an anchor your brain has set in place and it will affect your evaluation of a card's value until your brain accepts the new price and "sets" another anchor. The time it takes to set the new anchor will vary, but this are another example of the brain taking a shortcut when making a decision.

What's interesting about price anchors is that they can actually cause you to bypass the most efficient "deal" because your brain values the "cost" at a much higher level of importance than other factors.

A good example would be if you're trading with someone and they undervalue five of their cards by about $2 each, but they overvalue one card by $8. If they won't break up the trade then you're more inclined to walk away because of the one card being overpriced than the five being underpriced.

Loss

The price anchor concept can also apply when cards drop in value. Though in that instance we have another factor to consider. The brain doesn't like taking losses of any sort. This is why, when a card plummets in value, people will be weary of trading them away at their current value because their last price anchor was set on the old value.

This happens the most when you have an expensive card reprinted, as value can plummet dramatically very quickly as shown below.

urborg tomb of yawgmoth stock

Most people who are sitting on these are likely now in the "well it'll probably rebound" camp, but the reason they jump on this reasoning is because it offers a hope of eliminating some of their loss. The problem is on casual cards like these, the mindset of the player who wants this card is different from that of a competitive player. This is often why reprints don't decimate the original printings price of eternal staples as much as casual favorites. That mindset will likely direct them to the "cheapest" version.

Ownership

Another factor in determining values revolves around the concept of "ownership". We as humans attach additional value to things we own, often unknowingly.

For example; if you have to sell your foil cube to pay some emergency bills you'll likely want the full value of all the cards in it, and likely a bit more as you remember how painstakingly long it took to get all the cards for it. It might be worth $4000 but you ask $4400--after all, you went to numerous big events, searched vendor tables and thousands of trade binders to finish that cube; you're saving the buyer all that time and effort.

This thought process is the "additional value" that you have placed on the item because as the owner you recall a lot of intangible things specific to said item. Whereas, your buyer looks at it and thinks, well I could just go and buy every card online for less than that.

They don't value it the same as you do. It doesn't mean either party is wrong; it is just human nature to attach more value to things you own than things you want. As expected the more effort you have to put into the ownership of an item, the more "value" you add to it.

Further Reading

If you find these concepts interesting and would like to read more in depth on the matter I suggest Predictably Irrational by Dan Arielly as many of the concepts in this book were used as the skeleton of this article.

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David Schumann

David started playing Magic in the days of Fifth Edition, with a hiatus between Judgment to Shards. He's been playing Commander since 2009 and Legacy since 2010.

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Posted in Finance, Free InsiderTagged 3 Comments on Insider: Behavioral Economics, Part 1

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John Avon to make rare appearance

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It appears that Grand Prix New Jersey really will have it all. Star City is hosting the event on Nov. 14-16, and it's shaping up to be quite the experience.

The biggest news? John Avon, artist behind all of the best lands, will be in attendance. It's his first appearance in a long time, and I expect the line to be huge. But he's not the only artist who will be there.

Matt Stewart, the artist behind this Force of Will, will also be there.
Matt Stewart, the artist behind this Force of Will, will also be there.

SCG has also guaranteed that everyone will get a playmat, deck box and sleeves with Brainstorm art. SCG has been killing it on events recently, and this is no exception. You can see full details here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Bad Card Alters

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Enough of sucking up to Eric Klug, already. We get it. He's the Goddamn Rembrandt of card alteration. We all know his art is ridiculous, and it sells for ridiculous prices on eBay. But what if we go on eBay looking for something else?

Instead of talking about the Rembrandt of card alterations, let's take a look at some good ones I found on Tumblr.

This combines two of the most abused poor taste alters in scantily clad anime girls and pervo dragons.  Please folks, here is a protip - do not play this card if you want to leave your basement.

Perfect for the kitchen table. Your mother's kitchen table. Where you still live. Don't take this to a tournament, please.

Meet the newest guardian of the seven acre wood.

I have never painted a card before, but I have to imagine I would, at the very least, make a better choice than Pooh Bear ffs.

Varolz must have scavenged a makeover.

This trend really needs to stop.

Perhaps by the power of hypnotization I will forget this card when I wake up.

If this were painted better, it would just be really embarrassing.

Yes, why?

Why indeed.

Unbeknownst to the Eldrazi there was a greater force at work in Zendikar.

Submitted without comment

There is a reason why Pentagram Terror Bear was never pushed beyond the prototype stage.

#3Edgy5Me

When this Thundermaw Hellkite enters the battlefield, it deals 1 damage to your chances of ever getting a girlfriend.

No.No.No.No. Stop it. No.

Va va voom!

This is what you want on your Mountain? All the time?

What Demonic Tutor really wants to know is if that kilt he’s wearing makes him look fat.  Unfortunately that is one answer he can’t find in your deck.

Well, this card used to be worth money.

$370 Unlimited Mox Jet sharpie alter says, “boo.”

Talk about a black fly in your Chardonnay.

For $45 this mountain could be yours!

The Buy-It-Not price was $45. I wish I were joking.

This assassinate kills me.

I won't even lie - I do stuff like this between rounds when I'm bored. I don't try to sell them, though. Mostly I just throw them at people.

Jarad ordered the cessation of all Pokemon harvesting after this incident.

I have no idea why this was on a bad alters blog, I liked this one.

This is just creepy. 

Let's call this one the coup-de-grace.

 

What about you? Have any experience with bad alters? Anyone play with nude anime chicks on their basics at FNM? Ever give a card to an alterist and have them botch it? Got any stories of good alters? Too bad! We don't want them today.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Free10 Comments on Bad Card Alters

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Could This Be Confirmation of Modern Masters 2 in 2015?

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At Pro Tour M15, Director of Global Organized Play Helene Bergeot sat down with Rich Hagon to discuss next season's grand prix schedule. Besides learning that she has an extremely charming accent, there is one thing that stuck out to me:

IMG_2090

Let me zoom in on the important part for you:

IMG_2090 (2)

Hmmm. Three concurrent Limited GPs, taking place well after the release of the third set of the Khans of Tarkir block, but before M16's release. We see two GPs at a time relatively often, but I can't think of any time when three have been going on at once.

With Grand Prix Las Vegas—remember that one? The huge Modern Masters GP in 2013?—capping out at nearly 4,500 attendees, this seems like Wizards of the Coast is basically screaming at us: "Modern Masters 2 is coming next summer and we are going to have three GPs in order to properly accommodate the fervor this will cause in the community!"

This was certainly my first thought, and Twitter blew up shortly after Helene's interview, so I'm not the only one. This more or less feels like early confirmation to me. I'm not sure why the cities in question are still to be determined, unless WOTC believes saying that there will be another GP Vegas in May 2015 is too obvious, but really, could this slide be any more obvious as it is?

I cannot fathom a world in which this is anything other than a Modern Masters 2 spoiler. If you have another theory, please share below in the comments so that there is empirical evidence of how wrong you were when the official announcement is made.

And one more thing: this probably means no Zendikar fetch land reprints in Khans of Tarkir block. Those are the big-ticket items that will help MM2 be as much of a success as MMA, and WOTC is on record as wanting less shuffling in Standard tournaments. Expect to see different dual lands in Standard with fetch land reprints next May. Of course, we can keep hoping for Onslaught fetches in Khans!

Insider: Un-pimp Your Ride

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I am going to be honest, I didn't know what the hell to write about today.

Was I proud of myself for being astute and ahead of some tech from the floor of the Pro Tour?1 Well, yes, obviously I was. Being ahead of Monday's price changes is good. Being ahead of a post on Reddit or MTGSalvation is great. Being ahead of the QS Insider e-mail is phenomenal.

Funny story, Doug hit me up on Saturday morning and asked me to put together an Insider e-mail. I was down. I'd heard from Ray about the Rabblemaster Red deck and how it would further support the increasing price of Legion Loyalist by giving you battalion without insisting on being a 5-mana enchantment. Firedrinker Satyr also seemed like a good choice given the popularity of the deck.

I cobbled together what I considered a very decent Insider e-mail and when I went to schedule it, of course, Kelly was nearly done with a more comprehensive and more official-looking one.

Shrug, Delete, Drink.

Kelly's blast was a good one and it was timely enough that a lot of people got their copies of Loyalist and Goblin Rabblemaster. You know who didn't get theirs?

Me.

My orders were cancelled. I am not inclined to check, but I have to imagine I've written an article or two about getting orders cancelled and we've talked about it on the podcast. No need to go into that here, but it was still a blowout. Fortunately for the sellers, even though they couldn't locate their $0.75 copies of Rabblemaster, they had some $3 copies in their inventory that I could have.

No sense getting salty, this happens from time to time. I've had several people on TCG Player tell me "I love the podcast" when fulfilling an incomplete order (which may be code for "please don't call us horrible people on your podcast") so I imagine I get an equal amount of "$&% that guy" when sellers notice their entire stock of 30+ copies of a card is being bought by the same guy on the eve of the Pro Tour. It sucks, but it comes with the territory.

Still, despite that paragraph, that's not really the topic I wanted to talk about.

Let's talk about something else instead.

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This afternoon, QS Insider and local dealer Carter Hatfield had me meet him at the shop so I could pick up this bad boy. While Alternate Fourth Edition is hardly Summer, it's rare and I like it. Fourth Edition was when I first started playing Magic, so the set is near and dear to my heart. Not only that, I come across quite a few Alternate Fourth Edition cards because a lot of the product was sent to a distribution facility in the Midwest.

I bought a collection from someone who used to work there. He had no idea what Alternate Fourth Edition was worth, he just had it mixed in with the rest of his collection. He told me that when the order came in from Wizards to destroy all of the product, his boss told everyone to take the stuff home because it was getting thrown away. A lot of cards that were supposed to be destroyed ended up in collections in the Midwest instead. I come across Alternate Fourth all the time.

So what is it?

Alternate Fourth

In 1995, Wizards of the Coast got a little bit sick of printing the cards on foreign soil. They commissioned the United States Playing Card Corporation in Cincinnati to try and replicate the cards they were getting elsewhere, hoping to save some money on transportation by printing the cards in the United States.

It went... okay.

They look like regular Fourth Edition cards. I mean kinda. To the extent that once I glanced at a binder two seats away and saw a Land Tax that made me say, "Sweet Jesus, that's Alt Fourth!" But internally, on the off-chance that the guy didn't know what he had. They're pretty distinguishable sometimes.

The purple pimp hat on an Alt Fourth Land Tax is so purple that if you wrung it out into a glass and drank it, you'd get diabetes. It's so purple that every time I look at the card, I grimace. It's so purple that I don't have a third thing. Sorry. Anyway, it's very vivid.

In addition to being super vivid, the card stock is thicker. This is not a good way to go about making a card that is indistinguishable from existing cards.

They weren't done botching the absolute bejesus out of the process. They put a glossy coating on the cards that would prevent them from getting sun damaged. That's simultaneously thoughtful and idiotic. "We want the cards to have a niiiiice coating" they said, because I picture them as the tailor from the Hudsucker Proxy.

Too bad their stupid coating makes the cards look different from other Magic cards, which is terrible. The worst part about the coating? It makes the cards not luminesce under a blacklight. Yes, this is a bad thing since other Magic cards do.

The cards also don't have the same dot pattern. This, taken by itself, is relatively minor. No one's getting out a jeweler's loupe to scrutinize a Mishra's Factory with a white border. However, one of the ways the dot pattern is different is that there is a big obvious difference in the card back. You know the arrow in the Fed Ex sign?

Drink all you want, you'll never unsee that.

Well just like you'll never unsee that, you'll never unsee the difference between an Alternate Fourth cardback and a regular one.

I'll give you a second to see if you can see it without prompting.

 

 

Untitled

Sweet mother of obvious! That's all wrong!

Someone at Wizards, probably because his first job was at Atari in the 80s, said, "These are the worst. Bury them in the @$&*ing desert." The rest is history.

Alternate Fourth Edition is worth between two and ten times what regular Fourth Edition is worth, depending on the card. If you see Fourth Edition cards in binders and the front coloration looks odd, flip them over and check the tip of the A. Just say you're checking condition if you don't want the person to think they have something that's rarer than it really is and make them not want to trade it until they know what it's worth.

Despite the rarity and the cool story behind it, and the puzzling lack of a decree from Wizards that states you can't play with the cards in tournaments, the desirability of Alternate Fourth Edition doesn't extend that far beyond "certain weirdos want the cards". I think they're cool and I want them, but I'm a little nuts.

You know what's worth even more?

Summer Magic/Edgar

This fiasco can't be blamed on an incompetent printer, I'm afraid. This was Wizards, in its second year of existence, screwing up. Badly.

Summer Magic is so-called because it was printed in the summer of 1994. It was an attempt to be re-Revised. In fact, it was originally just going to be Revised. Summer Magic cards were distributed in Revised booster packs although only a few booster boxes survived their trip to the desert--much more Alternate Fourth Edition remains unscathed, which only adds to the lore and mystique of Summer Magic.

Summer set out to correct some things that Revised did poorly. Revised coloration looks washed-out and pale and no one likes it. Not only that, they changed up the art on Plateau and accidentally the wrong art on Serendib Efreet, replacing it with the art (and color) if Ifh-Biff Efreet. All in all, Revised kinda sucked. Wanting to change those errors and remove the pentagram from Unholy Strength, they commissioned a new Revised set.

It went...okay.

Just kidding, it was a total botch. The colors were too dark (sound familiar?) and they changed the art on Serendib Efreet and Plateau but left the old artist attributions. Not only that, they managed to make Hurricane blue. Blue Hurricane has been called the most sought-after card from the set, but everyone was saying that back when Underground Sea was $11 so I imagine that may have changed.

These cards are distinguishable most easily by looking like Revised cards with all of Revised's "T at a 45-degree angle Tap Symbol" but with 4th Edition's rich, dynamic coloring turned up to 11.

This is what a Bayou looks like. You may recognize it from never having seen one in person or seeing someone try to charge $25,000 for one on Facebook, of all places.

Why They Rock

These cards are beyond rare. There is way more Alternate Fourth Edition out there, but that's like saying there are way more unicorns than there are dragons. They're both pretty rare, and having Alternate Fourth Edition is nothing to sneeze at.

In fact, I put together enough Alternate Fourth Edition basic land to run them in all of my draft decks. I watched someone pay $4,000 for a Summer Wild Growth because there is just no Summer out there and Wild Growth sees play in Enchantress or some other rationale.

Nothing is going to get people excited like a blue Hurricane. Everyone has seen power and guru lands and Fruitcake Elemental by now, but how many people have seen a Summer Serendib Efreet? Even I haven't seen one of those. What could possibly be more pimp than a Summer Magic Birds of Paradise quietly sitting across from your opponent, worth more than their entire deck?

Why They Suck

Anything is better than that. I play with $30ish Japanese Foil buy-a-box Birds of Paradise and I actually had an opponent exclaim "Holy $%^!" when I put one on the mat. Meanwhile I used to play with $100 Alternate Fourth Edition Birds and no one even batted an eye. I knew the birds was super pimp, but so what? No one else even noticed, and if I told them it was Alt 4th, the one person in 200 who knew what that meant said "rad" and went back to playing.

No ejaculations of "Holy #$%*!" when I casually windmill a Birds worth as much as the Japanese foil playset. Isn't the entire point of pimping the deck for other people to appreciate it? There's a reason Wonder Woman never put sweet decals on her invisible jet. Pimp is only pimp if people agree.

Jamming a playset of Wild Growth worth more than a Prius is probably one of the ultimate power moves one could pull. Worth more than power (or most decks) this playset would be the result of years spent trying to track down sellers of a whole playset, and thousands and thousands of dollars spent. In the end, 199 people out of 200 will look at your playset and think "the rest of the deck is foiled out, why's he using crappy Fourth Edition Wild Growth" and the 200th person will see where your car is parked and break into it later.

As Carter was selling me the Library--yeah, I bought it. Sue me--we got to talking about how pimp it kind of...wasn't. It's likely not going in a deck and will rather end up relegated to my trade binder with my Land Tax and other Alt Fourth goods. Carter used to play with a Summer basic Island in his Vintage deck and people would glance at it and make a face, like he'd farted directly in their mouths by playing with a white bordered basic.

He replaced it with a foil Saga Arena island and got a compliment from literally the first person who saw it in the first game with the new island. Now, Carter knew his Summer Island was worth a ton. But is it that big a deal of no one else cares? Turns out just you knowing isn't enough sometimes.

I've found people who have Alt Fourth in their binders over the years. I've found random Alt Fourth commons mixed in with regular Fourth Edition and I've spent entire evenings in shops with stacks of commons and uncommons flipped upside down, scanning through entire 5k boxes for dark-cornered A's. I've found people who worked in a distribution facility and had nearly half the rares in the set.

What I haven't found is anyone who will say "Holy $%&^!" when I tap an Alt Fourth Forest to summon and Alt Fourth Birds. Buy and trade accordingly.

1Being astute = I had Ray Perez text me if he saw anything.

Insider: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes in PT Land

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For a Standard event, Pro Tour M15 was pretty entertaining and surprisingly diverse. Let’s hope we can say that for each of the next four Pro Tours, because we have a whole bunch of Standard in front of us for the next year.

IMG_2106

While at first glance that may seem like an error, Wizards of the Coast announced the schedule for next year's Pro Tours over the weekend, and it appears that, yes, this is really the future we can look forward to.

On one hand, Block PTs were kind of useless to the vast majority of players, so getting rid of those is probably a net positive (although you could make the case that a low buy-in format is important to highlight in order to compete with free-to-play games like Hearthstone and SolForge).

However, losing the Modern PT hurts, at least for people who like fun. The announcement was met with general revulsion by the Twitter community.

anti-standardpttweets

In response to the outcry, Aaron Forsythe explained:

IMG_2094

So WOTC is planning to still support Modern, just not on the game's biggest stage. Considering 99 percent of players don't actually play on the Pro Tour, this may not matter for the health of the format. But for those of us who enjoy watching, yeah, it kind of sucks. Modern is a blast to see played and Standard generally is not, with a few exceptions here and there. Forsythe went on to explain further:

IMG_2096

So once again, WOTC has introduced a nuclear-level change with incomplete information, not at all anticipating the (what should have been obvious) outcry from the community.

At this point, the best thing the company could do for itself is to hire a public relations firm to handle all these major announcements. This year has been filled with poorly received changes that could have been handled in much more diplomatic ways, heading off at least some of the negative reception.

What Does This Mean for MTG Finance?

Well, first of all, I'm not planning on panic-selling my Modern collection. If you find anyone who is fire selling, feel free to scoop up those cards at a discount. Legacy is not a PT format and it does just fine. If nothing else, the Sunday Star City Games Modern events should help keep the format popular, just as Legacy Opens do for the older format. And the number of Modern GPs has increased in the upcoming year, so that will help.

But also keep in mind that perception is everything. It seems much of the community believes that this is killing the format, so I would be extra cautious buying into Modern cards until we're sure a price crash is not incoming.

If you can buy at a steep discount, by all means, do it. But in general, I think Modern cards are holds anyway. We are in the thick of the summer doldrums, after all, so selling now, especially if there are price decreases, is just asking to be disappointed when prices rebound in the fall. Don't panic—but be careful. We may not see another big Modern year like we did in 2013 and 2014.

As for Standard, perhaps this is an indication that there are going to be big shake-ups in the format with each new set released next year. We're likely looking at a powerful block, which would make sense given Theros block's relative lack of power. I'd be surprised if we saw another Dragon's Maze or Born of the Gods next year—the complaints about a stale Standard would be deafening.

It could also indicate that WOTC is intending to be more liberal with bannings in Standard. This is questionable, since historically they've hated doing such a thing, but it is a possibility. If this turns out to be the case, we'll want to diversify our holdings and not go too deep on any one spec. And if we do, we want to sell as soon as profit is realized, just in case.

It's a Gruul Kind of Week

With Khans of Tarkir confirmed as a three-color wedge set, dual lands are going to be very important after rotation. More and more, I'm thinking that devotion will be less prevalent in post-Return to Ravnica Standard. And although until now I've been focusing on the small-set scry lands, I'm now looking closely at the Theros ones.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Abandon

I'm always a little wary of getting in on fall set rares, but in this case, it feels extremely safe. With a relatively low spread, a low buy-in price, and two Jund Planeswalker decks in the Top 8 of the PT, I'm extremely bullish on Temple of Abandon.

In the past few years, we've seen Seachrome Coast and Clifftop Retreat increase in price by quite a bit after rotation, despite being from fall sets. Mana fixing will be extremely important in a wedge format, and there will presumably be fewer options for allied colors, given the Apocalypse pain lands in M15.

Last week I expressed my concern about how shock lands didn't perform, but there are a number of mitigating factors there—the Dragon's Maze reprint, mono-colored decks dominating Standard, and their prices never really dropping to the levels we're seeing with the scry lands. I'm feeling more and more comfortable getting in on the scry lands, especially the low-priced Theros ones.

Temple of Silence in particular has an extremely low spread right now, albeit a higher buy-in price:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temple of Silence

Another card I mentioned last week was Xenagos, the Reveler. The card received much praise from none other than LSV during the PT, and at about $7, seems like it could be a big contender for Standard staple next year.

I also mentioned Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver as being relatively equal with Xenagos in price potential, but that card did not do anything at the PT and was not well regarded by some of the pros asked about it in interviews. I'm now firmly in the Xenagos-over-Ashiok camp, and will be trading accordingly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Xenagos, the Reveler

Xenagos and Temple of Abandon are the two cards that are sticking out to me after the PT. Until we know more about Khans of Tarkir, I'm not too anxious to make other predictions about next year's Standard. We still have another month or so to acquire Theros block cards, so keep an eye out for hints as WOTC releases more information about next year's schedule and sets.

Insider: [MTGO] Investing in M15 Rares on MTGO

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On my Nine Months of Portfolio Management report about the M14 rares, I was comparing the core set to a fourth large set, being released in July barely two months before the new block comes up and Standard rotates.

After being heavily opened and drafted for only two months, core set supplies dry up as players turn to the new large set coming up in September-October. Consequently, the total supply of core sets is rather low compared to Return to Ravnica or Theros cards. For instance, sets are drafted as RRR or TTT for five months, then a year and a half with the other sets of their corresponding block.

Nonetheless, people are opening a lot of core set packs in a low demand context--the current Standard is about to rotate and a significant part of the MTGO population is not really trying to accumulate Standard cards without knowing what's next with the fall set.

Not really helping to increase to total supply, core sets are also known to rapidly bore drafters.

Historically, prices of most core set rares fall until the end of September and are therefore primed to rebound as rares are incorporated into new Standard decks, ramped up by the Pro Tour results, with a relatively low supply for a large set.

In M14, only Mutavault, Chandra's Phoenix and Imposing Sovereign actually increased in value between the end of M14 release events and the release of Theros.

Today, using M14 rares prices history, I'll discuss the strategy I intend to apply to investing in M15 rares.

Reviewing M14 Rares

The Top Rares

No more than a dozen of M14 rares were worth 1 Tix or more between October 2013 and May 2014. All these rares were part time or full time member of tier 1 Standard decks and I consider them to be top rares. Interestingly enough, all of them were less expensive before the Theros release than in the following four to five months.

Here is the list of these rares:

M14 Top Rares

Scavenging Ooze was the only one that never really took off and tightly fluctuated around 6 Tix to reach a maximum of 8 Tix in April.

Aside from the Ooze, all these rares saw several hundreds percent increases between their lowest and their highest: +350% for Lifebane Zombie, +650% for Chandra's Phoenix and +400% for Mutavault. And some insane +1600% for Imposing Sovereign and a record +4500% for Tidebinder Mage. The Mage was a 0.05 Tix junk rare before reaching 2.5 Tix after Mono Blue Devotion won PT Theros.

To be fair, it's unlikely you have hit these numbers since it is pretty hard to buy cards at their absolute lowest and sell them at their absolute highest. Nonetheless, even selling 30% below their peaks, these percentage are still pretty good.

Another very interesting fact about these eleven M14 rares is that, according to MTG Goldfish graphs, all of them, with the exception of Tidebinder Mage, never touched the bulk rare value of 0.05 Tix before Theros release, Imposing Sovereign being the cheapest at 0.2 Tix by the end of August. Only Ogre Battledriver didn't reach 0.05 Tix before October 2013 and finally finished as a bulk rare.

This is very interesting because it tells me that waiting until mid-September to pick up the core set rares that are still above bulk rare value is an excellent indicator of potential future gains. Even if you have to lose some equity on rares that would be already on the rise, such as Mutavault, Chandra's Phoenix and Imposing Sovereign last year in M14, sifting core set rares this way is most likely to leave you with the premium rares, the ones that have really high chances of increase in value past the release of the fall set.

Applying this strategy retroactively to M14 rares, you would have picked ten winners and only one loser (Ogre Battledriver). You would have also missed Tidebinder Mage. Overall, it would have been largely beneficial.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Imposing Sovereign

Bulk & Near Bulk Rares

Beyond these top rares, some bulk or near bulk rares could have yielded a little profit if they had been bought at 0.05 Tix or below. Historically, almost all of them would have represented a loss of Tix. However, if you want to hold the next Tidebinder Mage, you may have to pick up some bulk rares and hope for the best.

Among these bulk rares, Dark Prophecy, Liliana's Reaver, Mindsparker, Path of Bravery and Domestication could have been easily bought at 0.05 Tix and sold later on with a small profit or at least enough to break even.

If I had to pick up bulk rares last year in September, I would have probably picked up Haunted Plate Mail, Trading post, Awaken the Ancient, Ogre Battledriver or Pyromancer's Gauntlet.

These positions would have been near pure loss. Not a big loss, however. I would have probably been able to buy 50 copies for 2 Tix or less. And if it costs me 10 or 15 tix of bulk rares in exchange of the 80 Tix of profits I make with my 50 copies of Tidebinder Mage, that's a bargain I'm willing to take.

Needless to say, if all my bulk rare bets end up negative, it only takes a fraction of the benefit from the top rares to cover this loss.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tidebinder Mage

Taking Position on M15 Rares

Although I started to write this article before Pro Tour M15 and finished it barely knowing the top 8 decks, my overall strategy remains the same. Although Necromancer's Stockpile, Goblin Rabblemaster and Obelisk of Urd may have been played at the PT, I'm not going to touch any of these right now. Maybe you were able to quick flip them for few extra Tix.

Goblin Rabblemaster jumped from 0.8 Tix last week to 4 Tix this past weekend. Good for him. It will inevitably go down, and sooner rather than later. Remember they are played in Standard decks that will no longer exist in two months, when we still are in a release events period where supply flow is strong.

Based on M14 rares historical data, I plan on waiting until mid-September to make any large move on rares. Only spoilers from Khans of Tarkir having significant and obvious interactions with a M15 rares would make me buy sooner than mid-September.

M15 Top Rares

In my opinion, the following cards are likely to constitute the top rares of M15, meaning they should be valued over 0.2-0.3 Tix by mid-September and would be a must buy then. Off course, these are only my prediction and I'll adapt to whatever this list actually is by mid-September.

Potential M15 top Rares

My strategy will be the following:

  • Mid-September, I'll buy all cards that end up in this top rare list in order to maximize my chances of positive returns and pretty much nullify the possibilities of negative overall profit.
  • I will try to buy an equal amount of Tix of each of these rares up to a limit of 100 to 150 Tix (this amount depend on your bankroll size). Also, I would not buy more than 100 copies of cards, even if I could easily buy 200 copies because the buying price of a given rare is 0.3 Tix (which would make a total of 60 Tix for 200 copies). The reason is that selling high volumes of one given card is tedious and very hard to sell at the top price.
  • I will be ready to hold on to these cards until March-April 2015. After this date, I will be inclined to sell the rares I would be left with, and further opportunities for these rares to spike will be very rare. If a rare doesn't find a deck after several metagame changes and two new sets, it is unlikely that the third KoT set changes everything.
  • Concerning the selling price, 3-5 Tix range seems to be a decent target. Only few core set rares go over 5-6 Tix. Mutavault and Thragtusk were big outliers, and Lifebane Zombie and Phantasmal Image were the only other recent core set rares to reach 10 Tix. If I buy a rare at 0.3 Tix, I'll be very happy to flip it for 2 Tix two months later. Watching the popularity of new decks and how many decks include a new M15 rare may help you decide if you should sell or hold.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Chord of Calling

Outsiders

Beside these top rares, other M15 rares are likely to be part of some Standard (or other formats) decks but might be priced bulk rare before the end of September. These cards have a good potential but may end up as bulk rares before the end of September. If they hit 0.05 Tix or below I'll be buying 50 to 100 copies of these.

Near Bulk Rares to Watch

Feel free to modify this list according to your own preferences.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chief Engineer

Bulk Rares

Finally, bulk rares or bulk rares to be. Some may already be found at 0.05 Tix or below. Very few bulk rares become playable enough that they integrate into popular decks and see a significant price increase. Last year Tidebinder Mage proved us that it is possible.

I would not buy any of these rares at more than 0.05 Tix, and you can probably find them at 0.03 or 0.02 on Goatbots, for instance. Selecting some of these bulk rares is really up to you. Buying 50 copies of a 0.02 Tix card  will only cost you 1 Tix. If one of your bulk rares makes it to 1 Tix, it will cover the investment for all your bulk rares. If this is an interesting gambit for smaller bankrolls, it is like to be a waste of time for bigger bankrolls considering the time invested to buy/sell hundreds of cards for a minimal gain.

Bulk Rare Worth Considering

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aggressive Mining

Concluding Remarks

Similarly to the experiment I made with the M14 mythics last year, I will be "blindly" buying all the M15 rares that are priced over bulk rares in Mid/End-September. If the conclusion drawn from the M14 rares data holds, I will have in my basket way more winners than losers.

I will also pay attention to what I called near bulk rares and probably be buying several dozen copies of these. I'll wait until they hit 0.05 Tix or below. And if they don't drop that low, they will simply be considered top rares.

Finally, I might consider acquiring some true bulk rares, although I'm still undecided if investing in pure bulk rares is worth my time. I guess this question depends on the size of your bankroll.

What do you think about this approach? And what are your predictions for the potential top rares by the end of next September?

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

There By The Grace of Friedman

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There is no doubt that Ben Friedman wanted to win this match.

The winner of the Round 15 match between Ben Friedman and Ivan Floch would make Top 8 of the Pro Tour in Portland. It was that simple. Floch is no slouch, with 4 GP Top 8 finishes, and Friedman is right behind him with 3. Both clearly wanted to win this match, but Friedman's motives come under increased scrutiny. Why?

Because of this exchange.

Obzedat started attacking, but Floch found Sphinx's Revelation on the top of his deck and cast it for ten the following turn. The game dragged on from here, but the massive number of cards in Floch's hand were too much for Friedman to overcome. Floch eventually found Elspeth, cast it, and passed the turn. Friedman gave him a confused look.

Floch forced air through his lips, "I meant to make soldiers."

Friedman, in a tremendous showing of good sportsmanship, shrugged, "It's fine, just make them."

Elspeth stuck around for a few turns and Friedman eventually died to the swarm of tokens.

Essentially, Friedman allowed his opponent to take back a back-breaking mistake that likely would have cost him the match, or at the very least not allowed him to win as handily.

Floch went on to win the Pro Tour.

Good guy Friedman? Sucker? What would you do in this scenario?

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Some Good News, Some Bad News

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Throughout the week I observed some noteworthy trends in the MTG market. Some interesting developments were taking place, and these movements catalyzed an article idea in my mind. Heading into the weekend I was excited to already have a topic to write about. It was going to be an upbeat article centered around some market turnaround observations.

Then on Saturday, Wizards of the Coast dropped a bomb on us: next year’s Pro Tour schedule.

PT Schedule

Notice something different? What appears to be missing from the “Format” list, which was added to that list only recently?

No Modern!

So now I have to reshape my article into a “good news, bad news” theme in order to communicate my observations from earlier this week along with implications from this recent development.

Here it goes…

Good News!

These last couple months have been a drag on MTG Finance. I’ve shown numerous price charts showing general declines since late spring. The Modern season bump never occurred and cards like Snapcaster Mage and Birthing Pod continue to suffer. Shock lands didn’t give us the bump we were anticipating and fetches have pulled back out of reprint fears.

But then this past week something amazing happened. We saw two sudden buyouts, reminiscent of when Magic finance was in its heyday!

Overlord

Flames

I almost had forgotten what these buyouts looked like. It had been so long! In fact, I’ll even admit there were days at a time when I didn’t check the Interests page on mtgstocks.com. Price movements had become so boring that the daily movements didn’t get me excited. As a result, the jump on Sliver Overlord completely skipped over my radar and I managed to acquire only one measly HP copy at the old price.

Fortunately I did catch the Flames of the Blood Hand buyout in progress. I managed to grab a few copies from retailers before they caught onto this price movement.

But the point here isn’t to dwell on my hits and misses. Instead, I want the message to read loud and clear: buyouts are back again!

Sliver Overlord was suddenly scooped up thanks to the reappearance of Slivers in Magic 2015. Flames of the Blood Hand was suddenly bought up because of its recent success in mono red decks in Modern. The red sorcery isn’t as powerful as Skullcrack, but apparently life gain strategies in Modern are so prevalent that playing some Flames of the Blood Hand as “Skullcracks 5-8” is good enough. I guess that’s what happens when Kitchen Finks are everywhere and Soul Sisters is kind of a thing.

It’s not just Casual and Modern formats that are driving price spikes. Check out what happened to Goblin Rabblemaster this past weekend thanks to multiple deck appearances at the Pro Tour.

Rabblemaster

Yet another buyout, this one from Standard play (although some Eternal format speculation may be taking place as well). Perhaps these price spikes will catalyze further interest in MTG Finance driving additional opportunities ahead. My main takeaway is simple: it’s once again time for me to check mtgstocks.com every day and monitor trends very closely. These buyouts can drive a lot of value for astute speculators in front of the curve.

While I don’t particularly like to blindly guess which cards will jump, I am a huge fan of buying up cheap copies during a buyout to flip for small profits one week later. I don’t get to sell at the peak, but by buying overlooked cheap copies during a spike I can secure copies at the old price to sell at an inevitably higher price – even if that price retracts slightly from the peak.

Long live the buyout. It indicates a sudden surge in MTG Finance interest yet again.

The Bad News

Do you have dreams of making the Pro Tour? Do you grind out test games for hours each week to perfect your abilities? If so, then you may find yourself playing a lot less Modern now.

Wizards of the Coast recently restructured the Pro Tour Qualifiers by creating pre-qualifiers to be run at local shops. The local shops can pick their favorite formats, but this means there is no longer really a “PTQ Season”. We used to rely on seasonality to shift market focus and drive some price changes. And although the recent Modern PTQ Season didn’t really drive prices higher this time around, the MTG Finance community looked forward to subsequent seasons where concentrated interest in the Modern format would drive up prices.

Now the continuity is shattered and this format concentration is no more. Sure, there will still be a regional Modern PTQ Season but it just isn’t the same. The amount of players who will need to master Modern for regional PTQ’s will be much lower than those who are enjoying the competitive atmosphere of Modern currently.

This past Saturday, Wizards put a final dagger in the heart of Modern Pro Play – they have declared that all four Pro Tours will be Standard/Draft. Bye bye Modern Pro Tour. Bye bye Modern PTQ season. Bye bye seasonal price movement in Modern.

After reviewing my Twitter feed this morning, I’m convinced the broad community's reaction to this news is negative. Wizards of the Coast is rearing its ugly corporate head by citing greater exposure of new cards as their motivation behind this move. To me, this means they want to sell more new cards. They don’t make a penny when I buy Modern and Legacy cards from StarCityGames.com or from “John Doe MTG” on TCGPlayer.com. But when players and dealers crack packs to sell more Goblin Rabblemasters, then WOTC makes more money. The rationale is fairly easy to understand.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Rabblemaster

If I was a shareholder of Hasbro stock, I’d probably be happier with this change. Selling more packs is a good thing. But as an occasional player of Eternal formats, this change is extremely disappointing.

Next weekend I will be attending the one PTQ a year that meets two personal requirements: 1) it’s close enough for me to get to in under two hours and 2) it’s a format I am confident enough in understanding that it gives me the feeling that I actually have a chance to make the PT – Modern.

It sounds like this could be my last of these PTQ’s and it may finally dash my dreams of making the Pro Tour. Granted, the dream is more and more distant the more I entrench myself in “real life” activities (family, career, etc.). But it’s always been a glimmer of hope in my mind. Now that hope may be extinguished.

I wonder if there are others who will be in the same boat as me. If so, this could bode well for Modern card prices. It’s a good thing Star City Games announced Modern support recently because Wizards is taking a lot of their support away. There will, of course, still be Modern Grand Prix and regional Modern PTQs but it will not be a dedicated “season” to this young, exciting format.

As for impact on card prices, I don’t expect anything positive to come from this. The news will apply more downward pressure on a collection of cards that have already suffered in price. And if we do get more reprints and a Modern Masters II set next year, I can see even greater downward movement in prices. This may be a battle the MTG Finance community cannot win.

In the meantime, I’m going to continue to trim my Modern position. In reality, I have few Modern cards left in my collection as it is, but I certainly won’t be acquiring much more from Modern. It’s far too risky. My plan is to wait for prices to bottom and acquire a few very strategic targets that are not reprinted in future sets. But until we have more information regarding these future sets, I will sit and wait.

I Guess There’s Standard?

While Modern is a far more interesting format for me, I see little use in moving against Wizards of the Coast. If they want Standard to be the most relevant and showcased format, then that’s where the money will be. Therefore, if I seek to make more profits from Magic, then I’ll have to lean more heavily on Standard.

The upcoming format rotation will generate plenty of opportunities. I plan on monitoring how the metagame evolves these next few months and will make purchases accordingly. It seems this is where the excitement will be in the coming months and I would much rather play off upward momentum than try to be the contrarian value investor right now.

There will probably be opportunity to be the contrarian investor and scoop up cheaper Modern staples, but that won’t be my focus. At least not for the rest of 2014. It’ll be a Standard-centric world now, so that’s where I’ll play.

…

Sigbits

  • It’s interesting to see Liliana Vess’s price go higher thanks to her re-introduction to Standard. She’s up to $11.99 at retail and Star City Games doesn’t have copies from all sets to offer. I don’t think there’s much upside here because she has been printed a million times (and we already know Garruk vs. Liliana will be reprinted). But the trend is noteworthy.
  • Last week, Star City Games had a handful of Chord of Callings from M15 in stock at $9.99. Now they are sold out with an $11.99 price tag. I’m not aware of any Standard decks running this card, so it must be Modern demand driving the recent reprint higher. I can’t help but wonder if the recent Pro Tour changes will drive demand a little lower on this card, relieving its price some.
  • It’s not just Sliver Overlord that’s getting some recent love. SCG has exactly one English Sliver Legion in stock right now. They are sold out of NM English copies with a price tag of $39.99. I’m not sure if the casual crowd can support a higher price tag, but the movement is certainly interesting.

M15 Limited Focus: White Removal and Tricks

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Magic 2015 has been out on MTGO for more than a week. Let’s give ourselves the best chance of winning these early drafts by identifying the pertinent cards in each color. This time, we’ll be taking a quick look at the common and uncommon removal and tricks in white. Not only is it helpful to know what is available when drafting a particular color, but it helps you know what to play around when facing off against opposing decks.

Removal

 The only uncommon removal spell for white in M15 is Devouring Light. Although the mana cost is more color intensive than Divine Verdict, it costs one less total mana and the convoke option makes it significantly better than the Theros common. Always be aware of when your opponent can play this. You can give yourself a huge advantage in games where you identify that you need to play around it.

devouringlight1

Pillar of Light is narrow and occasionally uncastable, but being an instant for only two mana [edit: oops, it's three  mana, which makes it worse, but still serviceable.] means it's pretty powerful. We'll have to see how the format evolves to know if this is something you want in your main deck, but at the very least, it will be a fantastic sideboard card against green drafters.

OppressiveRays

Oppressive Rays is pretty darn good in an aggressive deck, but becomes basically useless in games that go long. Build your deck accordingly. Raise the Alarm is not technically a removal spell, but as an instant, it can act that way if an opponent makes the right attack. If not, you can always play it at the end of their turn and beat down. This flexibility makes it a very reasonable spell to have in your deck.

raisethealarm

Combat Tricks

White has a lot of token support in M15. If you're playing a this type of deck, you're going to want at least one copy of Sanctified Charge in it. Yes, the mana cost is high, but this is the kind of card that can win games out of nowhere. It's also reasonable on defense, essentially acting as a one-sided wrath if you have enough blockers to throw out there.

sanctifiedcharge

Ephemeral Shield is pretty borderline as far as tricks go. It can save your creature from removal or help you win a combat that would have otherwise been a trade, but not pumping a creature's power is a pretty major drawback.

Recap

Nothing in white is particularly crazy good this set. Sometimes white has some great removal (like Oblivion Ring or Pacifism), but in this set, the best we have is Devouring Light. Neither trick is a high pick, either. These cards will be the roleplayers in your white decks, not the all-stars.

White Removal/Tricks in M15

Removal

Tricks

Ivan Floch wins Pro Tour Magic 2015

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Who would have thought some Sheep could go so far?

If Pro Tour Magic 2015 taught us anything, it's that they can go all the way. Ivan Floch won the event thanks to a timely pair of Nyx-Fleece Ram in the finals, capping off an exciting Pro Tour weekend and an excellent Top 8.

Pat Cox was the darling of the swiss, using his Brave Naya deck to do work, but it was Floch's White-Blue Planar Cleansing Control that made the finals against Jackson Cunningham's Green-White Aggro deck. It was an excellent match that went the full five games, but thanks to the rams and Archangel of Thune it was Floch who managed to take it down.

Ican Floch, your Pro Tour Magic 2015 winner
Ican Floch, your Pro Tour Magic 2015 winner

It was a great event and I thought the coverage was excellent. I especially enjoyed this piece by Jake Van Lunen. The beauty lies in its simplicity, and it's something we haven't seen before but is great for the game. Really happy that this was included in the coverage.

The whole Pro Tour was great, and you can find the final recap here, as Floch took down an exciting finals to become a Pro Tour champion.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Grand PrizzleBrizzle

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So....this is a thing.

Following on the heels of Batterskull, a card that was fetching quite a price in its foil form, the new GP Promo after Batterskull is retired will be Griselbrand. With the new frame, Grizz looks better than ever. Well, not really. He looks worse than ever. But, come on, it's a foil Griselbrand.

This begs the obvious question, is it worth it to do VIP? Now, not getting VIP is less likely to affect your ability to get a promo, that matters more for the mat, but bear with me.

When a promo is new, the dealers don't have a trillion of them, so they're paying more than they do on Batterskull now that they're fatigued from buying and selling them. They have quite a backstock of 'Skull, but once Grizz is shiny and new, it's going to resell for more. If you're planning on just outing the mat and the foil to subsidize the trip, VIP may be a better value equation. In Boston, VIPs got a special area with snacks and water and got a bag with a water bottle, a playmat, a promo and more snacks. Having pairings posted just for the VIPs and knowing where your seat will be is valuable. So if the promo sells for more, VIP is subsidized more, and with a guaranteed mat, it can be practically free for some events.

Now, all TOs aren't created equal and therefore VIP is better in certain cities. But as long as Grizz is brand new, being guaranteed one and being able to snap sell it for a bit, until Grizz is old news, it may make VIP make more sense. I don't know, random thought. Do what you want.

You know. More.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in FreeTagged 7 Comments on Grand PrizzleBrizzle

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