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Sweet baby Heliod. This card is all-in, isn't it? You're drafting 5 color goodstuff with this guy in your first pack. Those poop 23rd cards? Well, they're in the deck. The good thing is, we haven't seen any way to remove Conspiracies (yet) so you're reasonably safe pretending you have a Chromatic Lantern all the time. I would not take this late since you're likely not going to want to jam your draft chaff in your deck if you weren't planning for it since pick one. This reminds me of a college professor I had who would give anyone who got every answer on the final exam wrong an A in the class. Get one question right? You fail the final. High risk, high reward. I love this stupid card.
Backup Plan
So the rares are good, huh? Not quite as punishing as Serum Powder, this little mulligan enabler lets you pick your poison for real. I know I'll have cards I want in both hands and have to shuffle one away, and that's before I mulligan. I don't know how much I will like this guy, but it does more than nothing and I can see this being a lot of fun to play with. I can dig it.
Exploration
Yep. That's an Exploration all right. Is your LGS still taking preorders?
Misdirection
The hits, they keep on coming!
Decimate
@Time_Elemental and I were literally discussing this card this afternoon on the Money Draught podcast and we couldn't figure out why it had such a low rate of EDH adoption for such a powerful effect. I supposed people just forgot this card existed. It's about $5 and on its way to getting cheaper. Be careful of this guy in limited- you can't cast it unless there is an artifact, creature, enchantment and land in play to target. It's better-suited to multiplayer. Hey, guess what Conspiracy is?
Rout
Not a reprint people were clamoring for, but a solid card nonetheless. Fated Retribution sees play in Standard and I think both can work together in EDH. Solid card.
All in all, these new reprints announced today make Conspiracy seem even spicier. I'm looking forward to jamming as many games of this as I can.
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In previous articles I often cite sealed MTG product as one of the safest investments one could make within Magic finance. It’s fairly straightforward to identify a set with upside potential, and there are always ample boxes available in the $85-$90 price range even for those of us with no retailer connections. Sit on a few such boxes for a couple years and BAM! You make money.
I continue to stand by the above statement. If I had to put my entire life savings into one asset right now and I didn’t want to lose any sleep, it would be difficult for me to decide between an S&P 500 Index Fund and Return to Ravnica Booster boxes. The latter will never go down in price unless the game of Magic collapses (and even then casuals will want to draft this set… maybe Magic dying would be good for sealed boxes?).
“If you’re so confident, why don’t you buy dozens of RTR boxes?”
Believe me, I ask myself this question frequently. But recent developments and observations has caused me to question the booster box investment strategy as a whole. Allow me to explain.
You may have noticed that I said “over a year ago” and not “over two years ago” – I got in on the Innistrad Booster Box investment a little late. Actually, it was more than a little late. My average buy price was probably around $150 per box. Still, better late than never right? Oh and hey, look, boxes are now selling on eBay for over $200. I should be singing and dancing to the bank right?
Not quite. A bit of math will quickly reveal that this sell price includes almost no profit for me. A $200 sale price on eBay equates to $20 in eBay fees, $6.10 in PayPal fees, and $12.35 for Priority Flat Rate shipping. Thus total proceeds from selling a $200 booster box on eBay equates to about $161.55 of net proceeds. With a $150 entry price this means my profit is a measly $10 and change, or 6.7% return.
Let’s compare that to some key cards from the Innistrad set itself:
Snapcaster Mage could have been purchased for about $20 less than two years ago and now they readily sell for $27. What’s even more interesting is the recent peak in price, where the Human Wizard buylisted for $27 and retailed for nearly $40. By selling at the peak one could have netted 30% in gains while also paying no PayPal fees and no eBay fees by simply buylisting their copies.
The price trajectory on Liliana of the Veil is even more impressive! A $20 investment could be netting you well over $50 now – a 200% gain! Foils have also jumped nicely.
Numbers Don’t Lie
I was so attracted to Innistrad Booster Boxes because of their safety. As a risk-averse investor, I didn’t want to roll the dice on a possible Liliana of the Veil reprint in M15 (no matter how unlikely) or Snapcaster Mage reprint in a Modern Event Deck (which didn’t happen). While individual cards from Innistrad could be reprinted at any time, Wizards of the Coast will never print new booster boxes of Innistrad. With a fixed supply, I figure boxes will gradually dry up buoying prices higher and higher.
While this is still 100% true, I am now realizing the shortcomings of my investment decision. Because of fees and shipping I can barely eek out a profit on these boxes even after nearly two years of holding. Meanwhile, Eternal staples from the set itself have risen much more significantly. Let’s face it – it’s not like we didn’t know which cards in Innistrad are the Eternal staples. I could have just as easily put that same money into foil Lilianas and Snapcasters to earn a much healthier profit.
Even random stuff like Gavony Township and Sulfur Falls are leaving me with regret as these lesser Rares have also yielded significant gains.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sulfur Falls
Even More Bad News
But wait, there’s more, unfortunately. I love surfing buylists to see what I can unload for profit with minimal effort. Sometimes Twitter followers will criticize me for buylisting so much to vendors at GP’s because I’m leaving money on the table. I see GP’s as opportunities to sell cards for immediate profit with no fees, shipping or questions about condition.
As recently as GP Cincinnati I happily buylisted Snapcaster Mages at $27 + 25% trade-in credit for some played Dual Lands. The decision has paid off nicely.
Guess how many stores listed Innistrad Booster Boxes on their buy list? When I specifically asked about selling Innistrad Boxes, the number offered would be below what I’d net from eBay after fees and shipping. Ouch.
So then I take to the interwebs! Surely between the QS forums, Twitter, MOTL, and Facebook groups I can find buyers for my sealed boxes right? Well, let me check my QS thread right now to see if anyone’s expressed interest in my Modern Masters and Innistrad Boxes... nope.
Turns out it’s difficult to move booster boxes – especially older boxes which have gone up in price significantly since they were printed. I had not anticipated this at all. A few years ago I discovered the Booster Box investment by moving funds into a smattering of older sets – two Unhinged Boxes, one Onslaught Box, one Zendikar Box, two Coldsnap Boxes, and a couple others. These all sold without much effort believe it or not, and this gave me the confidence to go even deeper on the newer sets.
I believe the flaw in my logic here is that older boxes were all printed before Magic’s recent surge in popularity. Naturally older sets would be much rarer, meaning I had a lot less competition when selling. Also key cards from the above sets (well, maybe not Coldsnap… that was just a severely underprinted set) drove demand for Booster Boxes. And while there are plenty of key cards in Innistrad worth opening, the number of sellers of these is much greater and the set is much newer. These factors have made selling for sizable gains fiercely competitive.
It’s even more difficult to sell Modern Masters Booster Boxes right now. For some reason everyone’s deciding that now is the time to unload these, and prices have been dropping notably on eBay. During the recent peak in Modern prices, I saw Booster Boxes selling in under 24 hours with a price tag of $410. Now I see $375 boxes sitting on eBay indefinitely. While these should pick up again come Modern season, there has been a gigantic opportunity cost to sitting on these boxes. Just three boxes ties up over a grand – a grand which could have been put to work elsewhere in better, more liquid investments.
If I wasn’t sitting on Modern Masters Booster Boxes, I could have made a sizable purchase of Tropical Islands the week after Underground Sea and Volcanic Island spiked. This was one of the safest bets in recent MTG history, and any investment in $100 Trops would have netted significant gains. As it stands I managed to acquire a total of two copies before they spiked. I’m severely disappointed in this missed opportunity because guaranteed profit with minimal time horizon occurs less frequently than you’d think in MTG finance.
And yet again, selling Tropical Islands has to be easier than selling water to a dehydrated wanderer in the desert. Price it right and it sells with the snap of two fingers. Meanwhile, Modern Masters Booster Boxes continue to rot in people’s closets as buyers hide their head in the sand. It pains me to even think about the lost opportunity.
Looking Ahead
Life is all about the accumulation of experiences. Fortunately I can be a fast learner when I make poor investing choices with my resources. I can guarantee you that after I finally move some of these booster boxes, they will never dominate my portfolio ever again. Even though they can yield safe, easy profit, I have been severely burned by their slow growth.
I shouldn’t beat myself up too much though. I certainly did not predict Magic’s sudden growth spurt and I’m not sure who did. I saw the game increasing in popularity, but I hadn’t considered the impending, profound impact on the singles market. Even investments in Power could have yielded me much greater gains while maintaining better liquidity. The lessons learned here are invaluable, and at a minimum I can share my experiences with the broader community to help others make better-informed decisions than I made.
While buying Zendikar booster boxes three years ago could have been a home run, getting a series of bunt singles with Innistrad Booster Boxes has been a slow, grueling process. And it’s not even over yet – eventually I’ll need to actually move these boxes and this will take significant time and effort. And the longer I wait, the more opportunities pass me by.
Rest assured, this is not a mistake I will make again.
…
Sigbits
If you think for two seconds that Vintage isn’t growing in popularity in paper, let me direct your attention to Nether Shadow. Outside of Vintage Dredge I’m not sure who plays this card, yet Star City Games has exactly 4 tournament-legal copies in stock across all printings.
We are largely in a lull right now with many cards drifting downward in price. This is especially true with Modern staples, which have largely pulled back from their peak a couple months ago. This isn’t the case with Linvala, Keeper of Silence, however. The Legendary Angel is climbing higher and higher, and SCG has just 1 SP and 1 MP copy in stock at $37.49 and $34.99. This is below TCG Mid, however, and I see SCG restocking their NM copies at a higher price point.
Nick Becvar recently alerted his followers to the sudden movement SCG has made on Sword of Fire and Ice. The world’s largest MTG retailer now has NM copies from both sets listed at $49.99 with a $30 buy price. Any other swords not reprinted soon will surely be going higher in the future (looking at you Sword of Light and Shadow and Sword of War and Peace)!
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There are a ton of reprints in Conspiracy. I'm interested in the new cards. I don't need to tell you that Squirrel Nest is good in Limited. Let's take a look at new stuff.
Today, I'll go through the Conspiracies.
Like we said yesterday, Conspiracies appear to be similar to Vanguard cards. If you draft one, you start the game with it in your command zone. It will give you a continuous effect and some of them seem pretty strong and some seem pretty weak. This is just something else to manage while you draft and will add a dimension to the game.
Power Play
I don't know what this card does. Does this mean you start the game? Hooray, I guess? You waste a draft pick on starting the game... unless someone else has a Power Play. Does this mean you are the starting player for voting effects as well? Either way, this seems weak. Not going to take this highly unless it does something better that I'm imagining. I have no idea if Conspiracy cards will be relevant financially. Planechase planes and Archenemy schemes are about a buck each. These will have a much higher distribution than those.
Advantageous Proclamation
I. Love. This. Conspiracy. A 35 card deck is a big advantage. I don't see any mill enablers in the set yet so this is just going to give you a 12% more consistent deck. This is very, very strong. Imagine you could take the 4 worst cards out of a draft deck and chop a land off. I think this is very strong.
Brago's Favor
No wonder this is common. This effect is very weak, and the fact that it's a 1-shot makes it weaker. The fact that you can bluff it being a better Conspiracy with Hidden Agenda is the best thing it has going for it. Last pickable.
Double Stroke
This is the kind of Hidden Agenda you're trying to bluff when you put out a Brago's Favor. Double Stroke is very, very good. This card can win you a game. How would you like to copy Mortify? Extract from Darkness? Swords to Plowshares? Tragic Slip? Copy away. This card can be played effectively in a deck with 1 instant or sorcery it's so good. Such a ridiculous power level swing between conspiracies so far...
Immediate Action
All of the Conspiracies at common seem like they should be rated "why bother?" and this feels like no exception. It's a stronger effect than Brago's Favor, but it's still a 1-shot and I'm not really impressed. Giving a Spiritmonger haste can be good. It can even win a game. Still, I'm not predicting this makes many waves.
Muzzio's Preparations
This is solid. You can pair this with Selvala's Charge or Squirrel Nest if you want. Nope! As Aric West points out below, reading just the bottom where it says "each creature you control with the chosen name" gives an incomplete picture of the card's true limitations. It's oly by reading above in the Hidden Agenda text that you'll see you declare a card name not a creature name. And the narrow get narrower... It doesn't have to be a 1-shot effect if you build with this card in mind. Howling Wolf suddenly becomes a much better pick, for example. It takes work to make this card mediocre, but I would play tokens in this format if I got the right cards, and if you build tokens, you don't not play this.
Secrets of Paradise
This has real potential. I don't see anything silly like Horseshose Crab to abuse with this right away, but it has the potential to be more than just a "name a creature with defender" sort of card. Half of these Conspiracies just seem like "fun with Squirrel Nest cards (in fact none of them are good with Squirrel Nest) - and there has to be more to it than that (no apparently there does not). This has potential for abuse beyond some of the other cards, so I  could see new cards making this more attractive.
Sentinel Dispatch
I guess it depends on whether this set has Burning Shoal, right? This seems underpowered for a 1-shot effect, but I like it more than some of the other common ones. 1 sentinel 1 time seems under-powered, but some decks might really want a free chump. Whether they'll want it more than they want to double a Brainstorm remains to be seen. This is better than not having a Conspiracy and in a lot of decks, I like it more than Immediate Action.
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We expected big things from Pro Tour Journey in Nyx, and we got them. It was an exciting format, a star-studded Top 8, and a great tournament that eventually fell to Star City Games writer and longtime fixture of the pro scene Patrick Chapin took it down with his Junk Midrange deck.
For those of you who maybe didn't get a chance to watch, what that means is Black-White-Green (Junk, for whatever reason) and full of powerful cards like Fleecemane Lion that are both good at slowing down the aggro decks as well as presenting real threats for the Control decks. Chapin's deck, more than anyone's in the room, toed the line between being just powerful enough to beat the Aggro decks while still being fast enough to handle the Control decks. Powerful-by-themselves threats like Brimaz, King of Oreskos were the primary reason.
A Pro Tour victory for the Hall of Famer.
The metagame was really pretty diverse, even though Prognostic Sphinx seemed to loom everywhere but in the winning deck. It will definitely make for an interesting format as we inch closer to Rotation, which is when a lot of the lists played this weekend will begin to draw attention again.
Speaking of lists, here's the Top 8 decks from the tournament, inlcuding Chapin's. Theros block certainly turned out to present a pretty interesting format, and I'm looking forward to seeing how it transitions into Standard.
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There isn't much to say about these rumored full-art lands other than "Wow"
I mean, this image obviously exists. They aren't rumored to exist as much as they're rumored to be available. At first I thought these were just a laborious alter over existing Zendikar basics, but the "star" logo that used to be on foil cards coupled with the lack of Zendikar logo and Terese Neilsen's name on each card bears it out. These are rumored to be future judge or otherwise "hard as balls to obtain" promo cards. These come pre-signed according to my sources, which some don't like, but, come on. Shut up. These are the hottest thing ever.
I have no idea what the dissemination on these will be, but expect these to be expensive if they're rare. Guru lands are very rare and very sexy. Hey, didn't Terese Nielsen do the guru lands, too? That's an interesting parallel.
Knowing these exist makes me smile. I will likely never own one, partially by choice and partially by circumstance, but knowing someone will make their small number of basics look very sexy makes me smile. WotC knows what we want, and every once in a while they deliver.
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First of all, we now know what the blank card that was shown on spoilers is.
Conspiracies are like generals or like Vanguard cards, whichever you remember better. There are quite a few conspiracies spoiled. I assume they will be in booster packs and be draftable. I like this concept. Will putting them in the Command zone mean they're EDH legal? Who knows?
The other big news revolves around some expensive cards.
A) Conspiracy has foils.
B)Â
Conspiracy has Brainstorm
C) Therefore, Conspiracy has foil Brainstorm.
And foil Swords to Plowshares
And foil Reito Lantern.
Expect the hype around this set to intensify.
There are some exciting cards and we'll get to them this week and as they're spoiled. For now, be very excited.
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I know you probably don't need an introduction to this card, but if you do I can sum it up simply:
SQUIRRELS!
Seriously, everyone seems to love Squirrels. And Squirrel tokens. And Squirrel Nests. It's a combo with Earthcraft to make all the Squirrels, and it's a combo that sees some casual and Commander play. The Nest sees no competitive play (mostly due to Earthcraft being banned), but it's still a well-remember and well-loved card. I can't wait for a chance to play with it since I wasn't around the first time.
As for how this fits into Conspiracy? I've got nothing for you. But hey, that's not going to stop me from enjoying it!
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Have you ever found a mysterious box in the attic? For the past six months Vintage Masters (VMA) has felt like a locked safe (though hopefully things will turn out better for us than for Corbin…)
I can guarantee that VMA will contain more than the safe Corbin Hosler discovered in his cellar...
With less than a month before VMA hits the draft queues, Wizards is finally turning the key. With more previews rolling out each day, opportunities to speculate (and protect yourself from reprints) are closing fast.
Early this week we learned a crucial piece of information: Wizards had revised its plan for the size of VMA. In October, Mike Turian wrote that “Vintage Masters is a set that will be similar in size to Modern Masters,” which had 101 commons, 60 uncommons, 53 rares and 15 mythic rares.
That was a key clue that informed early thinking on VMA. In a set of that size there was just too much good stuff to cram in, leaving a lot of tournament staples on the cutting room floor. Lots of folks came to the same conclusion, which led to spikes in dual lands and an assumption that Force of Will would not be reprinted.
Monday morning those theories went out the window.
Vintage Masters will have an unprecedented 30 mythics and 100 rares! This draft format will be like nothing we’ve seen in the modern era of set design—incredibly diverse at the mythic/rare level and relatively redundant at common and uncommon.
The second bombshell was that the set will include dual lands and Force of Will.
Welcome back, friends!
These alone could sell the set. Since then they have previewed money card after money card, and the Expected Value (EV) of a pack at the start of drafting is going to be insane.
More goodies...
I say "at the start of drafting" because prices are going to fall hard as supply floods the market, with no relief valve from redemption. More on this later.
We are well into previews, and as of this writing about 20% of the set is spoiled. If you’ve been watching the QS forums, you have already sold off your dual lands, Force of Wills, and anything reprinted at a rarity lower than mythic. But there remain good opportunities to hedge against further reprints and capitalize on what won’t be printed.
The Basics
I am not going out on a limb here saying Vintage staples that aren’t printed are going to spike. Demand for the new format will put upward pressure on all cards that aren’t reprinted as people begin to build decks. And many of these older cards are in low supply.
If you've been reading the Vintage Masters articles on this site you've already got many of the Vintage cards you need. If you haven't, there is still a brief window, though you won't get in at the bottom.
There is good reason to believe that Legacy Staples that aren’t printed are going to spike. I presented this theory in detail in my last article so I won’t rehash it here, but suffice it to say that the day the spoiler is released you should be snapping these Legacy staples up as fast as you can. Force of Will, Lion’s Eye Diamond and dual lands have been major barriers to entry, and the Legacy format is going to dramatically expand its player base.
The window will be extremely brief for Vintage staples, so have your tix ready. The window for Legacy cards will last a little longer, but you still want to move fast.
What We Know, and What to Do About It
What we know: Vintage Masters will contain no Modern-legal cards: WOTC doesn’t want to cannibalize future reprints from Modern Masters. With such limited space, why waste it on things that can be reprinted later?
Note that the prohibition on reprints applies only to Modern-legal cards, so cards printed in post-Eighth edition sets but banned in Modern can—and have—made it in. Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Scullclamp are in, and cards like Mental Misstep and Umezawa’s Jitte are not safe. Nor are recent Commander cards like Flusterstorm and True-Name Nemesis.
What to do: As discussed in my last article, Legacy specs will generally be better than Vintage specs since that format is likely to grow faster and sustain a much larger player base. We now know that it’s safe to buy any Modern-legal Legacy staples. I would go ahead and do so, though make sure to save plenty of tix for VMA events.
Which ones should we pick up? I am targeting Legacy staples that are Modern legal but don’t see much play in Modern. Any card that already sees significant play in Modern has that Modern demand “baked in” to the price, and represents less value.
These cards are driven by Eternal demand (including Modern) and are safe from a reprint in VMA.
Demand for these cards is driven by Vintage and/or Legacy alone. They too will not be reprinted in VMA.
If you buy a portfolio of these cards you should do nicely in the mid to longer term. Some may see short-term gains as well.
What we know: As long as Vintage Masters is in the store and is actively drafted, the value of the set is capped by the price of the packs. One of the best analyses of this principle can be found from Odin in this MTG Salvation thread.
Based on his math (which I have not validated) “on average 477 boosters of Vintage Masters yield one set of Power Nine. In addition these boosters will yield 1.99 sets of mythics, 3.98 sets of rares, 17.89 sets of uncommons and 47.23 sets of commons. The 477 boosters needed to open these cards cost $3334.23, and thus this is the maximum value of all these cards combined as long as Vintage Masters is in print.”
Again, I have not validated his math but the principle is sound. As long as the EV is good, Vintage Masters will be heavily drafted and prices will reach an equilibrium. If prices drop too low, people will slow drafting; if prices rise, it will incentivize more drafting.
That equilibrium will approximate the cost of the boosters that contain those cards. Odin guesses this total value will be broken down into $1350 for a set of Power ($150 for a piece of power, on average), $500 per set of mythics ($16.75 ea.), $200 per set of rare ($2 ea.), and $10 per set of uncommons. (Note that the numbers above won't add up to $3334, but you'll understand how the math works if you read his post.)
Remember though that there are going to a lot of bulk rares and mythics, so that average price is deceptive. If he is right, than the prices of rares are going to crash pretty hard.
What to do: Sell anything that is spoiled at rare, though the best window is past. Consider hedging and selling anything that might be spoiled in the next week or two (Wasteland, Rishadan Port, Misdirection, Show and Tell, and Null Rod—I’m looking at you.)
I’m not holding any of these cards since the downside risk is too high for my tastes. I also sold most of my valuable commons and uncommons, like Daze and Brainstorm. If something is not in the set I will try to buy back in immediately.
What we know:Â All Vintage Masters will use the new card frame and new art when available. Masters Edition cards will retain the mystique of the classic look.
What to do: As mentioned above, we generally want to sell anything that is being reprinted. But don’t rush to panic-sell your original art Vintage and Legacy staples. Vintage and Legacy thrive on nostalgia, and old-border and old-art cards could retain a good deal of their value even if reprinted.
A good example is the MED Force of Will that never dropped below 100 tix this month, even when the promo version has dropped to 65 tix. I expect the original art dual lands to retain a premium as well, even if the VMA versions plummet from overdrafting.
What we know: With 30 mythics in the set, you are half as likely to open a given mythic in VMA as you were in MMA.
What to do: Anything spoiled at mythic will not enter the market in great quantities. These mythics can be a good pickup now if people panic-sell. But I would hold off since these mythics are especially good targets for the first week of VMA drafting.
Early in MMA drafting, Tarmogoyf dropped to 50 tix, and Vendilion Clique was down to 20; both increased by 50% once people realized supply was not as high as they thought. I expect similar pattern for VMA mythics, and will provide some specific guidelines for when to buy in my next article.
Note that there are 105 rares, which means that your odds of opening a specific rare are roughly half of what they were in MMA.
What we know: Vintage Masters is designed with drafting in mind.
Wizards learned its lesson from the original Masters Edition sets: having powerful and valuable cards is not enough to sell packs. The format must also be fun to draft. Modern Masters was designed for Limited and received universal acclaim (especially by WOTC’s accountants…)
WOTC delayed the launch of Vintage Masters to emulate Modern Masters, and I expect we’ll have an excellent format that is rewarding after multiple drafts. You can see an article on the draft archetypes here.
What to do: You are safer holding cards that don’t play well in Limited. That said, it seems nothing is truly safe, since they are printing cards like Oath of Druids, Library of Alexandria, and Lion's Eye Diamond which are miserable to play against in Limited.
What we know: Conspiracy will take up a bunch of slots in VMA.
Conspiracy will not be released online. To ensure that the online card pool matches the paper card pool, they will introduce Constructed-playable cards from Conspiracy through Vintage Masters.
The problem is that they need to be over-inclusive—this is their one chance to introduce these cards and they don’t want to miss anything that will be Constructed-playable. So we may end up with quite a few Conspiracy cards in the set “just in case”.
What to do: Not much, for now. The Conspiracy cards are the most likely to be mispriced as they enter the market since they will have powerful and un-tested effects. I think at least a couple will be tournament-playable. They may start underpriced, but if they prove themselves they could spike since supply is limited (one printing only) and reprint risk is low. Focus on mythics.
What we know: Some key blue cards won’t get reprinted.
This is a function of the numbers crunch. Vintage is dominated by blue instants and sorceries, but you cannot have too many of these in a healthy Limited format. So expect to see some key cards lose out to the numbers crunch. Here’s a list of blue instants and sorceries that are played.
In: Ancestral Recall (Special rarity-S), Time Walk (S), Mana Drain (M), Force of Will (R)
??: Misdirection, Show and Tell, Flusterstorm, Tinker, Daze, Hydroblast, Gush, Stifle, Submerge, Divert, Brainstorm
What to do: Keep a close eye on the spoilers. Whichever blue staples are not getting printed are going to spike. I’ve sold my Show and Tell, Flusterstorm, Daze, and Brainstorms.
Two Final Predictions
Wizards will consider paper vs. online prices in what they reprint.
For some cards, there is a huge gulf between paper values and MTGO values. Some good examples are Misdirection (72 tix, $22) and Null Rod (20 tix online, $4 paper). This is a “feel bad” for players taking up MTGO, and Wizards recognizes this.
It’s also why I think Wizards is okay with letting the price of some key online cards float upwards so long as they are in synch with paper prices and do not significantly exceed them. I would sell your Null Rods and your Misdirections if you are still holding them.
MTGO will spotlight constructed Vintage events with special high-EV queues.
Again, just a theory. Wizards has been reluctant to offer differential payouts for different constructed formats. However, if they really want people to plunk down $3,000 for a digital deck I think they’re going to need to lure people in with some special Vintage events. It’s not appealing to spend so much on a deck that can only be used to win six packs of a Standard-legal set. Will they make the change?
The spoilers are rolling in. Protect yourself, save your tickets, invest wisely--and prepare for an awesome set.
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Welcome to the overlord of Theros block. After day one of Pro Tour Journey into Nyx, we know a a few things about the format. One is that it's diverse. Aggro, control and combo were all represented well on Day 1. But one thing flew above them all.
Prognostic Sphinx.
It wasn't difficult to predict that Sphinx was powerful and would find a home, but what was maybe surprising is just how dominant it's been. Most games have been decided by the 3/5 flier, specifically which player has the most on the field.
Could it make an appearance in Standard to replace Aetherling after Rotation? I wouldn't be surprised, but you also have to keep in mind that there's no Supreme Verdict or any other Wrath clone in the format, which makes Sphinx nearly unkillable.
So I'm not sure this will be tearing up Standard anytime soon, but I do expect it to continue tearing up tables this weekend.
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Only this time he wasn't looking for souls to steal, it was Magic cards. The store "Hi-Tech Gaming" in Brunswick, Georgia was burglarized overnight. It's unclear whether the thief knew what they were stealing but a Magic collection worth anywhere from high-five to low-six figures was among the pilfered items. If you're in the area, be on the lookout for some marquee cards. (copied from reddit post here and reformatted for ease of reading.
upside down misprint Dark Ritual
foil MM Brainstorm
UL mint Mox Jet/Ruby/Emerald
tons of revised duallands
some unlimited duallands
graded UL Mox Sapphire (8)
graded UL Timetwister (9)
graded UL Time Walk (10)
several of each Guru land
many unhinged foil lands
misprint Birds of Paradise
If the thief does not know the value, they may try to sell them in local area pawn shops, which have been notified of the theft. If the thief is savvier, they may try to pass this collection off at a GP or similar event. Be on the lookout for these cards. The owner is obviously very interested in both pressing charges and recovering his collection.
If you think you may have found the thief or the collection, contact Jim at 912-265-3105 and obviously contact the police.
These thefts are despicable and only hurt the community. Nice collections are a source of pride for the owner but that pride can quickly turn to despair in situations like this. Take steps to protect yourself from this sort of theft both in a locked store and on a tournament floor.
Never take your eyes off of your bag
Keep the bag under the table, zipped up and with the strap around your leg or a chair leg
Zipper locks are useful but won't keep a thief out if they steal the entire bag
Don't let a trade partner or game opponent distract you
Locked in a car is not a 100% guarantee of safety - Eli Kassis' collection was stolen from a locked car
Insure your collection against theft, fire, flooding and desert twisters
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The Bazaar of Moxen is an annual Eternal-format convention in France that draws many competitive players from around the continent. While the focus has historically been on Legacy, the ever-growing Modern format is also eternal, and this year the Modern main event drew over 300 players.
The winner, after all was said and done, was Serafin Wellinger, playing what has been dubbed “GW Death and Taxes” (GW D&T).
GW Death and Taxes
Maindeck
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Path to Exile
4 AEther Vial
4 Flickerwisp
4 Restoration Angel
4 Blade Splicer
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Aven Mindcensor
3 Scavening Ooze
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence
4 Razorvenge Thicket
4 Temple Garden
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Ghost Quarter
2 Gavony Township
3 Plains
1 Forest
Sideboard
3 Stony Silence
2 Creeping Corrosion
2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Choke
1 Sunlance
1 Aven Mindcensor
1 Dismember
1 Akroma, Angel of Fury
1 Mark of Asylum
1 Gaddock Teeg
Some may know the deck as “GW Hatebears”, due to the many hateful 2-powered, 2-drop creatures, while others may recognize it as “GW Kibler”, as that popular player vocally championed his Wilt-Leaf Liege powered version for a period of time.
Regardless of the name, the deck is a Modern port of the historically Monowhite Legacy prison white-weenie deck--the most popular version being GW Maverick, which shares many of the same disruptive elements, particularly mana denial.. It uses efficient, hateful creatures to lock out the opposing game plan while nickel-and-diming the opponent to death.
I had seen the GW D&T deck performing quite well on Magic Online in the weeks and months prior to the Bazaar of Moxen, so its win there did not surprise me. With the Modern metagame starting to settle into relatively predictable archetypes, it is easier than ever to design a deck to combat expected opponents. This is much like how control decks are best when combating established and predictable metagames. Even with so many viable archetypes in the format, they all fall prey to many of the same forms of hate.
Card Analysis
The Modern GW D&T deck plays all of the most efficient, hateful creatures against the format and combines them under an aggressive shell. The deck is only as effective as the hate creatures it can play, and it is this core of creatures that defines the archetype. A brief rundown:
There was an error retrieving a chart for Leonin Arbiter
Leonin Arbiter punishes fetchlands and a whole assortment of cards, including Birthing Pod, Scapeshift, and Expedition Map. It also combines with Ghost Quarter to create a Stripe Mine effect and with Path to Exile to create a superior Swords to Plowshares.
Given that this anti-searching effect is so strong against the format and synergizes with the deck itself, for additional redundancy the deck also contains a set of Aven Mindcensor within the 75.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is excellent in a nearly noncreature-less deck, and it works to constrain the mana of every opponent in the format. It slows down cogs from Affinity, combo pieces like Splinter Twin, removal spells like Lightning Bolt from control opponents, and much much more. It is a strong tempo play that will require at least two mana to remove, and combined with this deck’s own mana acceleration, it is capable of effectively locking an opponent out of the game by putting them too far behind to ever recover.
Scavenging Ooze is a hate-bear against the graveyard, including cards like Tarmogoyf and Snapcaster Mage. It stops combo decks using Past in Flames and Pyromancer Ascension, and disrupts persist creatures, including the combo with Melira, Sylvok Outcast. It is also quite strong in creature matchups where it can grow large and gain a lot of life. It’s inherently strong in a deck with so many creatures, which provides it plenty of fodder.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence, while not a bear, is extremely hateful against three of the most heavily played archetypes in the format--Affinity, Splinter Twin combo and Birthing Pod. It’s also strong against more fringe players like Sakura-Tribe Elder and Martyr of Sands.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Blade Splicer
The Legacy version of this deck often abuses Mangara of Corondor with Flickerwisp or Karakas in response to the ability, which removes an opposing permanent but leaves the legend safely in play or hand. This Modern version has a different proactive plan made possible by Blade Splicer.
It can be abused with the aforementioned Flickerwisp or with a Modern addition, Restoration Angel. This miniature-combo gives it a very strong proactive plan against the format, and it’s capable of ending the game quickly.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Flickerwisp
Flickerwisp is great as a temporary way to remove opposing permanents when they matter most, while Restoration Angel can also be used to counter removal spells.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Path to Exile
Path to Exile, the most powerful and efficient removal spell in the format, rounds out the action in this deck. The card can be seen as a hate card against the various creatures of the format, and it often generates massive tempo in the process. It gives this deck an additional angle of attack, making it much harder to play against than a simply linear aggro deck.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch
A very important piece of the deck is the mana acceleration package of Aether Vial and Noble Hierarch. These cards give the deck a mana advantage on the opponent, which can be leveraged to further bury them. Aether Vial is volatile, in that it must come down early in the game in order to be effective, but when operational it provides an unparalleled advantage. Noble Hierarch is the best green mana accelerator in the format, and this deck takes advantage of the Exalted trigger with first strike creatures and evasive fliers.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Canopy
The lands in this deck are particularly great compared to what other decks must play. The headliner, Horizon Canopy, combats mana flood, while Gavony Township does much of the same. Given that flood is the biggest risk in playing a deck like this, these lands go a long way. I’ve already mentioned some applications of Ghost Quarter, but it’s excellent on its own against Urzatron decks and the manlands from Affinity. Temple Garden and Razorverge Thicket are reliable dual lands that ensure colored mana is not a real issue.
Sideboarding
Now I’d like to focus on the sideboard, which gives the deck the flexibility it needs to tackle any opponent.
Being white, this deck gets to play some of the best sideboard cards in the format:
There was an error retrieving a chart for Stony Silence
Stony Silence is necessary to combat Affinity, one of the weaker matchups, but it also hates on the artifact-laden Urzatron decks. It will also stop various rogue artifact strategies that may be lurking, like Krark-Clan Ironworks or decks built around Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas.
Burrenton Forge-Tender is an underappreciated Wizard that hates on red decks. At the simplest level it can eternally block something like Goblin Guide, but it’s actually most useful as a way to counter opposing removal. As a one-drop, it’s a perfect against combo and control decks as a lead-in to protect hatebears that come down later. It will trade for Lightning Bolt or Flame Slash, and it completely counters sweepers like Anger of the Gods and Pyroclasm.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Mark of Asylum
I spoke about Mark of Asylum a few weeks ago, and Dylan Beckham followed up on that in his article, but, in summary, it’s shuts down all opposing burn spells as removal, which allows the hate creature to run rampant. Given that some decks only have burn as a reasonable answer to hatebears, it will lock some opponents out of the game.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunlance
Sunlance can be seen as Modern's white Lightning Bolt, and it’s a great sideboard card against opponents without white creatures. A singleton Dismember is similar but gives up four life for added utility, which makes it excellent against Deceiver Exarch and company. Both of these can be considered a supplement to Path to Exile.
Creeping Corrosion is hates hard on Affinity, and it’s a concession to the poor matchup, which actually becomes very winnable after sideboard. This removes everything, including Etched Champion.
Choke gets the job done against blue opponents. Blue seems to get better and better as Modern grows, and so too will Choke. There’s nothing fancy or tricky about this one, but it makes up for that with raw power and the ability to win games outright against unsuspecting opponents.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaddock Teeg
The golden Gaddock Teeg, also known as “Gaddock Tease”, was a serious bane on my existence when I played a lot of Urzatron in Extended, and it’s part of the reason I started playing Oblivion Ring. It’s criminally underplayed in Modern, where it shuts down more cards than I care to list, though a few of note are Past in Flames, Splinter Twin and Birthing Pod. It’s a legend with no upside in multiples, so one copy in the sideboard is ample, but playing additional is a fine option if the format shifts more toward featuring even more blue cards like Cryptic Command and Gifts Ungiven.
The final sideboard card is a copy of Akroma, Angel of Fury. In a vacuum, this is actually a hate creature and it’s nearly impossible for some opponents to remove. Functionally, it works in this deck as a combo creature. It is morphed, then hit with Flickerwisp or Restoration Angel, and turns into a huge threat. Unlike Blade Splicer, it requires a Flicker, but the upside is enormous. This strategy is best employed against opponents without an answer to the final product.
Visual Sideboard Guide
As far as sideboarding against the format, here’s how I’d do it against some of the more popular opponents:
Affinity
OUT
IN
Leonin Arbiter does little to nothing, and they don't have many basic lands to search for anyway. Gaddock Teeg stops Thoughtcast! You could consider Dismember, but I don't believe it's particularly good here
Birthing Pod
OUT
IN
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is ineffective hate against a deck composed of almost entirely creatures. Sunlance is relatively weak and inflexible here, but Dismember kills anything and can disrupt the combo instantly. Gaddock Teeg stops their namesake combo engine from hitting play.
Splinter Twin
OUT
IN
This is the most complex deck to actually play against, and sideboarding is the most flexible, but matchup is actually quite fine.
Be prepared to combat Grim Lavamancer, their best tool against you. They typically transform into a sort of control deck after sideboard, so be aware. If you see lots of burn like Anger of the Gods, I would consider Burrenton Forge-Tender, but, in practice, the sweeper rarely shows up.For example, both Patrick Dickmann and his friend made the top 8 of the BoM with identical copies of Twin, both lacking the red sweeper in the 75.
Flickerwisp flashed in with Aether Vial can disrupt their combo or Batterskull, but not all four are necessary.
Storm
OUT
IN
Keep in some removal for Goblin Electromancer, otherwise bring in anything potentially hateful. Disrupt them as first priority, and try to win as quickly as possible. Be prepared to face tokens from Empty the Warrens.
Tron
OUT
IN
Bring in the hate, cut the weakest cards. This should be a great matchup.
UR Delver
OUT
IN
This is pretty straightfoward. I cut the most vulnerable creatures and bring in powerful cards that hate on their strategy.
JUND
OUT
IN
Bring in removal and some anti-burn cards. This deck will have Anger of the Gods, so consider both Burrenton Forge-Tender.
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The grand utopia that is this bastard step child is about to take center stage. Not only that, but all the hard work and speculation that has happened since the release of Modern Masters is about to be put to the test.
"Have you properly prepared for the Second Coming?!?!"
I say that a little tongue in cheek, but that's what the beginning of June truly feels like. The beginning of the post-Modern Masters era for Modern is about to descend upon us. Those who have prepared, both player and financier alike, will reap the glory or suffer the defeat all while proclaiming their losses or their wins on both the battlefield and in the pocket book.
I feel about as giddy as a school girl.
Banish that image from your head for a second. Think for a moment. This is a format that has netted me multiple $1,000's in both tournament winnings, Pro Tour qualifications, and sales. Not only that, but it has actually kept me up at night, appearing in my dreams as a goldmine. I lustily search the city, the country, and even the mountains for the path into this paradise of ever-flowing cards that no one was caring about.
Now they should care about it.
If everything that Wizards has done comes to fruition, this Pro Tour season should have about as much buzz as any in recent memory. There should be innovation, price volatility, price adjustment, interest, and people clamoring for cards galore.
All because of a dedicated interest that started months ago when they decided to reexamine their vast reprint policy, and how to make older formats relevant. I love it!
Richmond had a massive turn out. Busting records left and right. Minneapolis still hit almost 1700 players and compared to GP: Chicago's turnout of 1113 at the end of 2012, and we're still seeing wonderful growth. From the financier perspective, I can't wait to see what this season does to Modern staples.
Speaking off, let's get to the meat and potatoes...
Voice of Resurgence might be a negative spec for many players. The issue at hand is where can you get in? At the minimum, come Modern season a spike in Voice's demand is near guaranteed.
Many players have been shipping copies of Voice while its price has been relatively flat or declining. If you can pick up a few copies between now and the initial onslaught of tournament results, a forecasted profit margin of 25%-30% could be a reasonable expectation.
The thing to understand about this card is the large number that are potentially available, the long-term possibility for holding, and the almost certain increase in demand in the upcoming months. Considering just how little of Dragon's Maze was opened, there could be a long-needed price increase. Pod has proven again and again to be one of the best decks in the format--the only thing holding it back is that it's also one of the hardest.
End of Season Forecast: $35 +/-
4.) Tarmagoyf
There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf
It's hard not to include Tarmogoyf in a list like this. For the most part the consensus has been that Jund is dead. Grand Prix Minneapolis would like to have a word with you on that one, though. The Jund shell is still good--the community just hasn't yet convincingly answered the question, "How do you build the rest of it?"
There are about eight to ten slots that need to change with the loss of Deathrite Shaman, and in the months following it's banning there has been no consistent finisher that shows exactly what the new shell should look like. Jund is very much a finesse deck and requires many, many games to know what spells to use, when and how.
Take a look at the sideboards and you'll see. Jund is truly a numbers game. The consistent one-ofs allow the deck to morph in response to how your opponents play, letting certain things matter more at different times.
Once this gets ironed out, expect the bandwagon to come back on in force. You've also got Tarmo-Twin putting up numbers. With Tarmogoyf being at a relatively suppressed price earlier this year, I've been going about building up the number of foil copies I have.
Yes, this is a rather large big-ticket item--but it fills one of my goals, and I feel now has been the time to make that investment, if it was to be made. Slowly this has changed, and I look for this to increase even more in the upcoming months.
Snapcaster Mage fits in this same vein. While this should be rather obvious, let me talk about the subtle transformation this card has gone through.
Under the iron fist of Deathrite Shaman, Snapcaster was thought of as nearly irrelevant--but the bannings caught many off guard. Now Snapcaster Mage is making more and more of an impact in Twin packages. Combine this with the steady play of UWR strategies and continued usage in Legacy, and you begin to see Snapcaster's upward price trajectory.
The recent depression of his price is a current price correction after demand died off post-Grand Prix Richmond, but again I find this is the time to invest extra capital into foil versions or as many non-foils as I can lay my eyes on. The common misconception is that it's "too soon"Â since his printing for him to reach the price of Dark Confidant that everyone expects him to eventually.
While his future is certain, I say that time will happen sooner rather than later. The current influx of players ravenous to play a format they've heard is the bees knees are going to fall back to the best control deck of the format. And guess what fits that play style all too well.
End of Season Forecast: $45-$50
2.) Scapeshift
There was an error retrieving a chart for Scapeshift
I would be a bad speculator if I didn't include the most recent Grand Prix-winning lynch pin. The truth is, even after winning there just hasn't been a ton of price correction on Scapeshift. Crazy enough, I still think there is room for this card to go up, or a chance that you can find a price difference somewhere out there. The card is never thought of much, and typically goes for well below it's true market value.
The problem with Scapeshift is Jund. If Jund rears it's head again, I suspect Scapeshift will suffer negatively, once again. For now this card is continuing on an upward trend, all while receiving little to no bump in the last week, pricewise.
End of Season Forecast: $35-$40
1.) Birthing Pod
There was an error retrieving a chart for Birthing Pod
Now, I finally come to the lynch pin of the entire Modern format. Even acquiring this card now, I feel like you can not help but make a profit by mid-season. Demand will continue to grow due to its high customizability, synergy with turning creatures sideways, and general appeal of enter-the-battlefield effects. Not only that, but "Look ma, combos!"
Pod will continue to perform and will continue to be the tier-one deck that people turn to. Supply and demand will bring this card up to a price point that would normally be out of reach, but I believe there is still room to grow here.
In fact, the price has price corrected downward, after the surge during Grand Prix Richmond. Another bump is in its future as I am not too sure many players have already acquired the deck pieces for Modern season. Some feel that it's still very far off.
End of Season Forecast: $30-$40
- Til Next Time,
Dylan Beckham
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