| Quiet Speculation

Born of the Gods Top 10

Posted on January 30, 2014January 29, 2014 by Mike Lanigan

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A fresh new set is fully spoiled and players sit in anticipation. We eagerly await the clock to strike Midnight this Friday so we can all finally get our hands on a new set chalk full of brand new cards to try out. It’s about this time that I get to bring you the always interesting Top 10. Without further ado.

Ready, Set, Review!

Honorable Mention

The gods, just like planeswalkers, are extremely hard to evaluate. The multicolored gods take one more devotion to turn on than their monocolored predecessors, but they also count more mana symbols in your multicolored deck.

All of these new gods have powerful abilities that are difficult to utilize. Karametra, for example, has a great effect and lets you ramp into bigger and bigger creatures. The problem is that she costs five mana and we don’t have anything worth ramping into in Standard right now.

Ephara is astounding in a deck that can utilize her to draw multiple cards a turn, but that seems unrealistic in Standard right now. Mogis may actually see play but only if making him a creature is a reliable goal in a red-black aggressive deck. Only time will tell if we have enough tools in Standard to utilize these interesting two-colored gods.

On its own merit, this phoenix provides you with a solid creature no matter which choice your opponent makes. While that makes me consider this card for Standard, the problem is it has no home.

A red-based aggro deck might want it, but four may be too much for most red aggro decks. Red-Green Monsters might give this guy a shot but there are probably better options. For now it looks like the phoenix is decent but also homeless.

Overhyped

As the most overhyped card in the set, we are left wanting for a replacement for the irreplaceable Dark Confidant. One thing to remember is that inspired creatures like Pain Seer are much better in a world with bestow creatures because they become harder to kill. I think this will prove to be an important aspect of limited play.

There is one scenario where Pain Seer has potential to see play in Constructed. Think about a human-based deck that can support Xathrid Necromancer and might be able to set up the following board state:

Top 10

10. Temples

These temples may not be flashy, but they will be an important part of Standard. We have already seen how the lack of them limits deck construction, with the green-black temple in particular.

Temple of Enlightenment and Temple of Plenty have preexisting decks they will slot right into. The small consistency bonus will prove important for those strategies and make others viable that were not previously.

9. Bestow Monsters

Born of the Gods has given us two exciting new bestow creatures to play with. Both Eidolon of Countless Battles and Herald of Torment are strong on their own, but are also powerful with bestowing for an efficient cost.

White seems to have gotten much better with Born of the Gods so Eidolon might bestow his power to some creatures right away. The Herald of Torment might have a tougher time finding a home though because the black cards in Standard right now are so powerful already.

His original stats trump do Nightveil Specter, which is important. It's been a while since we have had a 3/3 flyer for three mana. I think both of these will get some time in Standard before their time is up.

8. Kiora

This card is up for the most-discussed award. Most of my discussions start with how awesome she would be with one more loyalty or if she cost one less mana. Since neither is the case, we should focus on what she actually does.

Ideally, if the board is clear, you can start to Explore every other turn. Kiora reminds me of Garruk Wildspeaker a little because you often alternate between his +1 and -1, and I think she'll play similarly.

Bant Midrange is getting some hype thanks to number four on this list, Courser of Kruphix. Kiora and Courser have great synergy with each other and could be the shell for a midrange ramp deck. Playing white seems like a natural inclusion not only for the removal but also because Sphinx's Revelation might be the only card worth ramping to in Standard.

Low-loyalty Kiora might not be revolutionizing Standard anytime soon, but she could be a solid role player.

7. Drown in Sorrow

Mono-Black definitely needed cards to make it better. Sorry, I know that was not a funny joke. What’s scary about this card is how much more invulnerable it makes the black devotion decks.

The best way to beat them was to be as aggressive as possible. That’s why decks like Green White Aggro and Black White Humans were so good against them. Now that Mono-Black has Infest with a free scry 1 attached, aggro decks are in for some trouble.

The one glimmer of hope is that they most likely cannot play this type of card maindeck. Drown in Sorrow is going to bring sorrow to many players in the future, but it will also be the source of many wins.

6. Bile Blight

Efficient removal is becoming a bigger part of the game than I am used to. Bile Blight is like a shout-out to back-in-the-day for me because it reminds me of Echoing Decay.

The only issue with the efficient removal in Standard is that it is all conditional. You can only destroy a mono-colored creature or a non-black creature, or make them choose what to sacrifice. If you want to pay three mana instead you can start to Murder your opponents creatures with Hero's Downfall or Putrefy, but at two mana, you are stuck playing with the conditional removal.

Bile Blight is yet another tool in this vein, offering to sweep all of your opponent's 1/1 cat tokens away or even a small pile of Pack Rats. As such it will definitely impact Standard.

5. Spirit of the Labyrinth

It seems like we're upgrading from “hate bears” to hate Blade of the Sixth Pride’s. Not as catchy I know, but this card was clearly upgraded from his former bear status in order to impact eternal formats.

With Divination seeing play once again and the ever-oppressive Sphinx's Revelation still dominating Standard events, Spirit of the Labyrinth seems poised to make a quick and scary impact on the metagame.

Jace, Architect of Thought does happen to sidestep the extra cards clause, but other than that, your opponent will need to answer your two-drop before they can start pulling ahead on card economy. I’m looking forward to walking the labyrinth with my opponents in the near future.

4. Courser of Kruphix

This Oracle of Mul Daya variant is starting to generate a lot of hype online and with just cause. Over the course of a game, Courser of Kruphix can generate a huge advantage for one player. The fact that he has reasonable stats is just a bonus because his ability to play lands off the top of your deck is just that good.

The synergy with cards like Domri Rade, Kiora, the Crashing Wave, or just scry lands definitely seems powerful enough to impact Standard. Starting off any game with Elvish Mystic into Courser of Kruphix seems like a powerful opening game sequence.

Even if he does not take off in Standard, the Commander crowd will automatically include him in their Born of the Gods updates.

3. Fated Retribution

Not many cards scare me the way Fated Retribution does. The main way to get an advantage against a control deck in the last couple years has been to invest in planeswalkers. With this instant-speed Planar Cleansing, your permanents are worth much less than they used to be.

Certainly you may get a few activations out of them, but the time of ultimating planeswalkers to beat control is coming to a quick end. Any instant-speed wrath effects will be powerful, but considering where we are in Magic history, destroying all the planeswalkers also might be the most powerful thing you can be doing.

Deck design will need to change based on the existence of this spell. Luckily we have gods to find advantage in rather than planeswalkers, but you should start learning to play against this wrath immediately. Your haste creatures just got worse that’s for sure. Seven mana now means more than rev for four, it means you are fated for retribution for your pre-combat actions.

If you were thinking the steep cost will prevent this from seeing play, normally I’d agree, but this is worth getting to seven mana for. Watching this spell in testing has already proven to me how potent it will be in the format.

2. Xenagos

Speaking of gods worth investing in, there is no dispute this is the best god in the set. Xenagos really made a name for himself with his ascension, that’s for sure. Any card that can be reasonably compared to my favorite planeswalker, Sarkhan Vol, has my vote, and Xenagos, God of Revels definitely fits the bill.

At five mana, Xenagos starts with an immediate impact on the board. His ability is strong enough to see play even if he does not become a creature, but making a 12/11 indestructible with haste seems like a crazy-powerful line of play as well.

When I think of how to best utilize this newly-branded god, combining him with creatures that have trample seems like the best way to kill your opponent. Otherwise they can chump your enormous attacking creature and move on with the game.

Never have I wanted to hard cast Ghor-Clan Rampager as much as I do now. If you want to play normal creatures, just include Nylea, God of the Hunt to grant that much-desired trample.

Another aspect of Xenagos is that he can fit in a preexisting strategy. Green-Red Monsters is definitely going to update to include this bad boy. As one of the best cards in the set, Xenagos will start crushing opponents immediately.

1. Brimaz

Surprise, surprise, Brimaz is the number one card for this set. Alright, I know there weren’t any surprised looks at the end of this top 10 list, but power is power and Brimaz is certainly brimming with power.

Let me first say that I definitely do not think this three-mana creature is the best card ever printed or even the best card in Standard, but he is the best card in the set. Precinct Captain already sees a ton of play and is regarded as a powerful card. Think about if his ability activated when he attacked rather than when he dealt damage. Players would be going nutty over the captain if he were worded that way, and of course Brimaz is.

Getting free 1/1 tokens is great and if left unchecked, will definitely take over the game. While not as powerful as Pack Rat, he functions the same way in that you have one turn to kill him before he starts impacting the game in snowball-like fashion.

Brimaz is not without blemish though. This cat king has one minor flaw perhaps not apparent at first glance. There will definitely be situations where you want to block with the hero of Oreskos but don’t want to block with the token you are making when you do so. Unfortunately you are forced to block with the fresh token you made, but luckily not all the tokens in play.

In addition, you are forced to attack with the new 1/1, even if you would have normally held it back. When thinking about the power level of this card, consider that your opponent will have blockers and then our expectations for this creature can be reasonably measured.

Is he strong? Of course. Is he infallible? Definitely not. After all, he still dies to removal right?

Go Forth and Brew

In conclusion, Born of the Gods has certainly given us some great new cards to play with. Standard will evolve, not as much as I would like, but we will mix it up a bit. The Limited implications of the set seem extremely fun and I can’t wait some sweet sealed and draft action.

Unfortunately, not as many cards piqued my interest as normal, but there are some new cards to brew with. New sets are so exciting.

Post in the comments your thoughts on the Top 10. Did your Top 10 end up in a different order? Did I miss a crucial card from the spoiler? Let me know below.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the New Set Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Walking Towards the Light

Posted on January 30, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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"To Ban or Not to Ban! THAT IS THE QUESTION!"

I'm certain there were a number of "false starts" these last few days, with many not knowing when to expect Wizards Banned & Restricted list. Your standard Google-Fu did not turn up anything of relevance, and many people where pulling the trigger early for the sake of shouting "FIRST!!" at the next Speculators Anonymous meeting. Even my fellow QS Writer Jason Alt spoke, at length, on the market reaching already without anything but shifting sand to stand on.

It's ok.

Let them reach. Let them panic. Their panic will be your gain in the long run. Their money will be tied up in cards that may or may not move. The market was already bearish on Bitterblossom as is at $25. What makes anyone think it would go full Bull at $35? I could now launch into my best Wolf of Wall Street sales spiel and really get into hocking you the latest goods, cards, and ocean front investments - but that will do you no good. The time to take advantage of the B & R has already passed. If you haven't picked up on what I'm putting down - let me make sure one thing comes across:

Rules to Spec By

RULE #1 of Speculation:
"Acting when everyone else is acting means you've already lost."

That list of cards, broken or not, that defines what is truly Over Powered for any given format can be the ^LIFEor the _DEATHof any investor. No sooner than you find that "AH-HA" moment on a format warping card.....UH OH!, it's out of stock....

RULE #2 of Speculation:
"Find the pulse, and never let go."

So, bannings are incoming. Since you are reading my article, I'll assume you want my opinion: Nothing is going to change. I REPEAT, NO CHANGES. People have talked ad nauseam on the possible reasons. So I'll let those reasons stand. It does all come down to this though: The formats are balanced. There are no run away decks that are "continuing to supress every other possible avenue of competition." Are there some clear winners & losers? Welcome back to remembering the fundamentals. Will there be some unbannings? Possibly. In the eyes of Wizards though, it's impossible to guess which they see as more fit than the rest.

RULE #3 of Speculation:
"Supply and Demand rule all. Supply rules Demand though."

Lest we forget there is always the option of no change. The passing of time, Theros, & Born of the Gods have brought on a reasonable expectation of progress - but as of yet - no one has sought it out. Modern is truly where all the impact of the B&R can be felt as the power level of Legacy is hard to break in upon.

So, first, what progression could we have seen that demands a banning in Legacy? Dark Depths? Too little information on how it's warped the format. Could it be banned in the future, possibly. It's still the new kind on the block, so to speak.

Standard? Good luck with that. Too balanced of a format for bannings. You have to have something extreme to shake that format. We haven't gotten that in the latest two sets.

Rule #4 of Speculation:
"In the absence of change, continue to focus on the fundamentals."

Top 5 Cards You Should Be Paying Attention To:

Rule #5 of Speculation:
"Better to be first to know, than last to act."

In the absence of change, we must stick to the things we know. Pay attention, watch trends, get in & out when the prices are correct, and most of all - always maintain cash flow. Regardless of what comes about, if you were in at the right time on any of the five cards mention there, you will be on the (+) of the equation. I'm sure much to fellow writer Corbin Hosler's delight, the last few weeks we have seen a rise in the popularity of Modern Merfolk. Key components that have not truly stabilized have been back on the move again. As the Modern PTQ season approaches, many first time format players are viewing Fish as the viable alternative to playing Robots while also maintaining the ability to delve into Legacy. Should this trend pick up more, all components of Fish should continue to be on your radar.

This is where I leave you for this week. What changes will the B&R bring in your mind? Your thoughts? Do you agree with no change? Leave comments with your thoughts and more on this article.

Till next time

-Dylan

Standard Going Forward

Posted on January 30, 2014January 29, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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With Standard decks being filled with Cloudfin Raptor, Frostburn Weird and Daring Skyjek, many were looking for a spike in power level from Born of the Gods. The first wave of spoiled cards showed some promise, but now that we have the full spoiler it doesn’t look like things will be changing too much.

Bile Blight and Drown in Sorrow simultaneously add and detract from Black Devotion. Both cards answer Pack Rat well. Both cards give the Pack Rat player better game against opposing aggression. Where Soldier of the Pantheon and Firedrinker Satyr once posed major problems, now they must mind two different manners of potential two-for-ones.

Not being a fan of Black Devotion, I’d rather discuss what changes to the format might combat its title as de facto best deck. For starters, the aforementioned Bile Blight gives Esper another tool against most of black’s threats. Temple of Enlightenment will make Esper more consistent- both by offering better mana and card selection.

That said, Esper remains vulnerable to Thoughtseize. Not to mention it doesn’t get any more interesting to play. Born of the Gods doesn’t offer much of anything to non-black decks, but there are some changes that can be and are being made to existing decks to combat Black Devotion.

Fighting the Best Deck

For starters, white decks actually do get a powerful tool in the form of Brimaz, King of Oreskos. Brimaz dies to Devour Flesh and Hero's Downfall, but it notably dodges both of black’s new removal spells in addition to being able to generate tokens to offer to opposing Desecration Demons. Boros and Selesnya strike me as weak to Black Devotion, but I do believe that an Azorius midrange deck like I discussed last week has potential.

The exact creature suite will depend on how big of a card Drown in Sorrow turns out to be, but I’d start with at least 3 Brimaz and the full compliment of Boros Reckoner for sure. Some number of Ephara, God of the Polis and Heliod, God of the Sun will enable the deck deck to go long against removal-heavy decks and Detention Sphere will give the deck outs to any number of Pack Rats and Desecration Demons.

The only tool that Blue Devotion gained from Born of the Gods is Thassa's Rebuff. The deck doesn’t currently maindeck any counterspells, but Thassa's Rebuff might change this. Even still, this likely doesn’t have a very dramatic impact on any of its matchups.

The biggest change to the Master of Waves deck comes not from any new card, but rather the recent trend of playing more and more Domestications split between the main and side. Stealing Nightveil Specter or Frostburn Weird from non-blue decks gives the blue deck an insane swing in devotion. If there is an upswing in Esper then this trend could cease, but its power against creature decks is not to be argued.

Green almost certainly got the shortest end of the stick in Born of the Gods- at least in terms of monocolored cards. Courser of Cruphix is likely to be playable, though Drown in Sorrow will really push out the sort of decks that it’s at its best against, and slower decks really won’t care much about a 2/4 with potential to generate incremental card advantage. Swordswine Centaur would’ve been really awesome in Theros, but it just won’t have the same punch with the new removal spells available. Aspect of Hydra intrigues me, but for the most part the mono-green cards disappoint.

I actually feel like Satyr Wayfinder is the standout green card from the set. It’s a shoe-in in the Golgari Graveyard deck of Conley Wood’s design. I’ll admit to having zero experience with the deck myself, but another self-mill card that also buys a little time with a chump-block couldn’t be bad. Considering that the deck is insanely cheap and I’ve never run into it on Magic Online it might just be bad, but it looks to be worth exploring to me. If you’re finding yourself bored with Standard, this is where I’d look to spice things up.

Red decks take a substantial hit from Drown in Sorrow as well. It kills basically everything from the aggressive decks and a fair percentage of the devotion deck’s monsters. In particular, it kills all of the Burning-Tree Emissary's, which will definitely slow the deck down. If the format slows down I could definitely see red decks adopting Ember Swallower. It survives much of the removal in the format in addition to having an often game-breaking ability. Flame-Wreathed Phoenix is an alternative card choice, but not one that I’m thrilled by. Most decks can ignore at least one of the card’s modes- ever the weakness of the punisher mechanic.

Flame-Wreathed Phoenix is likely to show up in Standard events, but I’d wager that it will be a weak link. For the most part, red gained Fated Conflagration to combat Planeswalkers and post-board creatures out of control decks. A boon to be sure, but not the most exciting one.

Gruul gained more than mono-red, though I’m still not sure if it gained enough to reasonably eschew Chained to the Rocks. Fanatic of Xenagos dodging Drown in Sorrow is a pretty big game- though it can always be Bile Blighted before its non-tribute trigger resolves. Xenagos, God of Revels packs a wallop and is another Fires of Yavimaya effect for the deck, but I just don’t see how you can score remotely consistent wins against Blue Devotion without solid answers to Master of Waves.

Born of the Gods might be a bit disappointing to some, but I think that we all knew that a dip in the power of Standard has been a long time coming. I see the format slowing down, and I don’t see much in the way of new decks coming out. I’ve personally been enjoying this Standard, but if you don’t then Born of the Gods is unlikely to offer the shake-up you’re looking for.

Top Born of the Gods Cards

Drown in Sorrow
Bile Blight
Ephara, God of the Polis
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Temple of Enlightenment

Worst Born of the Gods Cards

The green ones.

Next week I plan to take a closer look at where Red Devotion is going in the format. While Black Devotion is likely to be the best deck, I don’t think it will be unbeatable. I was able to earn 35 QPs battling Red this season and many of these came from battling Pack Rats. I’m not about to let Infest and Last Gasp change this.

Good luck to anybody battling in the pre-release this weekend, and better luck to anybody trying to brew something new and exciting post-Born of the Gods. Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf

Holiday Cube Draft #2

Posted on January 30, 2014January 29, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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Draft

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Insider: How to Buy Magic

Posted on January 29, 2014January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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So, as a QS member you have full access to trader tools, a backlog of insider articles, and a solid forum. While it's relatively easy to find advice about what you should be picking up and what you ought to let go, I think I can still offer some good advice about how to spend money in the MtG secondary market.

Buy at dealer prices for singles. You've got some wiggle room if you are willing to trade with shops that offer a bonus on trade credit. This is not hard thanks to Trader Tools. That handy tool often shows negative spreads between buy prices and tcg prices. Ebay remains a valuable source as well - yes that's a risk free Time Spiral.

While Ebay is easier to exploit thanks to easy access to ALL of a particular seller's listings, you'll benefit from focusing on the same sellers on both sites once you've found your mis-priced product. Simply put: the guy selling stuff too cheap isn't doing that once.

Buy sealed product that sells for less than expected value. That is not as hard as tracking down that elusive Mind Seize. Try the complete set of Planechase 2012 in Spanish for $84.49. You can sell parts to capefeargames for $40.47 after taking a 25% hit because they are Spanish. Alternatively on Ebay, the Night of the Ninja sold for 56.99, and a playset of Spanish Shardless Agent sold for over $60 shipped. For some reason, Ebay is also the best place to pick up complete sets of all four 2012 Planechase decks. Spanish sets there can be had for less than $75. That looks pretty low risk.

Once you've bought at these lows, you can feel much more comfortable trading into staples no matter the next Pro Tour format. Remand at $16 is pricey, but trading into them will add velocity to your binder. That card is a great tempo play for Modern.

If you are more conservative, trade into the plethora of standard playable modern/legacy staples. You could do worse than Thoughtseize, Deathrite Shaman (is this banned in Modern yet?), Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver, shocklands, or Scavenging Ooze. While Mutavault looks pricey, much like Scavenging Ooze, it benefits from being reprinted in a core set. I won't be buying any but trading into them is still justifiable.

You should always be hoarding your MtG cash. Players often demand more value in trade, and if you are going to buy cards you need to be sure you leave plenty of room for profit when you trade those cards you've purchased. If you are going to try and earn an income through MtG speculation the reasons for tight money control should be obvious: the easiest place to unload your cards will always be dealers. Buying at or below their buylist prices offers you an easy path to profitability through trading with little to no risk of capital. Buy cards to trade into cards. Trade into cards you plan to sell. If you aren't doing both your hoarding. Make money not inventory!

Insider: Is It Too Early To Think About Rotation?

Posted on January 29, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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Standard PTQ season ends on March 9. After this, there won’t be any Standard PTQs until December of this year. How much can the Star City Games Open Series and Friday Night Magic prop up Standard card prices? We’re about to find out.

For my part, I’m looking to sell out of Standard. Even though I mostly draft, I usually maintain a Standard deck or two, just in case there’s a PTQ or IQ I want to play in. But the chance to play an event in a format I don’t playtest or enjoy is not worth the potential of losing money to significant price drops once Sealed PTQ season begins.

If you play Standard, it’s probably worth holding onto your cards to play with until the season ends, but if you’ve got copies of extra staples or a spare deck in reserve, it might be wise to start outing them. The SCG Open Series and FNM will probably keep your cards from becoming worthless, but do you really want to take the risk? I’m selling out completely. Well, almost.

Rotations Specs

Snapcaster Mage, Liliana of the Veil, and Geist of Saint Traft were on everyone’s radars at rotation, but their price floors weren’t as low as many expected. The playerbase at large is becoming more savvy regarding MTG finance, and the expansion of the Modern format means FNM players are not just looking to unload rotated Standard staples for whatever they can get.

When was the ideal time to pick up these staples? Interestingly, the answer is different for each card. Take a look (all graphs courtesy of MTGGoldfish):

The floor for Lili was at the release of M13, a full year before it rotated from Standard. After that, the card steadily increased to its current price, not even seeing a dip at rotation.

Geist, on the other hand, has been steadily declining since before rotation, and is actually at its floor now. This may be partially due to True-Name Nemesis taking its spot in many Legacy lists. The card is still extremely powerful and legal in Modern, so expect a rebound at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Remarkably, the time to buy in to Snapcaster was way back during Innistrad preorders. It’s a rare card that consistently stays above its preorder price, but we have found one here. Its post-rotation floor seems to have just passed us by, with the card seeing a small incline in the last several days.

Applying the Past to Now

What current cards in Standard see Modern (or Legacy) play? And which of them are due to rotate this year? Here are the most notable:

Mutavault
Scavenging Ooze
Deathrite Shaman
Abrupt Decay
Sphinx's Revelation
Voice of Resurgence

We’re all going to be looking to pick these cards up as rotation approaches, but will that be the right time?

Okay, with Mutavault, it’s probably wise to sell your copies now. The card is at its ceiling and is seeing play in the most dominating decks of the current format—it has to drop when it stops seeing play in Standard. But keep in mind that this was a $40 card before it was reprinted, M14 was not a very popular set, and Modern Merfolk is becoming more and more popular. The next floor on this card may not be the $15 we saw several months ago. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how Mutavault performs over the next year, because if it drops far enough, all of the factors are right to make this a huge gainer after rotation.

Here’s a very powerful utility card that is seeing no Standard play and is at its all-time lowest price. While the card may drop another dollar or two, it has a Legacy pedigree and will almost certainly be worth well more than it is now at this time next year. If you wait for rotation with this one, you’ll probably have missed the boat. Start snagging these out of trade binders soon.

Deathrite Shaman sees virtually no Standard play but is still only a couple dollars off its all-time high. Due to its price being based mainly on eternal formats, it will likely see little to no dip at rotation. Being a rare from a large fall set is a downside, but the design of the RTR block means that RTR rares aren’t quite as risky a venture as those from Theros or Innistrad. My biggest concern with Deathrite is that it will earn a ban in Legacy or Modern, but is that really likely? I definitely see it discussed on Twitter and elsewhere, but I don’t think we’ve reached the level of saturation to make the card ban-worthy.

This has been on the QS and BSB radar for quite a while, but this chart sure makes the card look like it’s found a stable price. I’m sure it will eventually start growing, but I’m not placing a heavy priority on picking these up for now. This might be one that is indeed best to acquire around rotation, but we’ll see what happens in the next several months.

Besides Mutavault, Sphinx's Revelation is the card on this list with a price most influenced by Standard play. The card does see play as a one- or two-of in Modern control decks, so it will be worth targeting when the price is right. Given how much it dominated last year’s Standard format, price memory may force us to wait until post-rotation for this particular pickup.

This card is seeing virtually no Standard play but is still $30. Why? Well, partly because of Modern, but mostly because of being from Dragon’s Maze. With nothing from the set seeing play or worth anything, something has to hold value, and this is it. If GW starts seeing a bunch of Standard play, we could see Voice spike in Standard, and if that happens, it will likely never be cheaper than it is now. If GW doesn’t see play, though, we could see this drop as low as $20 before turning around. Don’t expect to get a rotation discount on this one—keep an eye out for the floor and don’t hesitate to get your copies when we reach it.

Have a Plan

As you can see, this is a diverse group of cards with a number of factors influencing their prices. Scavenging Ooze, Deathrite Shaman, and Voice of Resurgence are all seeing basically no Standard play but have maintained value despite this. Each, however, is close to its floor, so it’s important to stay aware of the trends with these cards. There will come a time to pick them up, and after that time has passed, we’ll be kicking ourselves if we missed it.

On the other hand, Mutavault and Sphinx's Revelation are seeing more Standard play than they are Modern. These are powerful cards with a place in the larger format, but we can expect their prices to drop when they are no longer relevant in Standard. After this drop-off, though, Modern play should buoy prices back up to or above previous levels.

Complicating all of this is the fact that Modern PTQ season goes from June 7 to August 24. This is different from last year, and I don’t think I can understate how much relevance I believe it will have. If a rotating card blows up in Modern during the summer, do you really expect rotation to cause any kind of price reduction?

Based on what we saw with Liliana of the Veil, the current MTG economy fueled by an influx of new speculators, and the change in PTQ format seasons, I expect we’ll see some of the cards I listed in this article go higher upon rotation rather than lower. The time to pick up many—or all—of these cards is going to be earlier than in previous years. Keep an eye on these cards over the next couple months, and keep in mind that the time to pick them up might be now.

I obviously have some ideas about how the changes this year will impact the MTG finance community, but I'm just one man. What do you think? Do you have any insights I may have missed here? Please share in the comments below, or hit me up on Twitter @dbro37.

Insider: Maintaining Your Business

Posted on January 29, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back Speculators!

Today's article will focus on the practical business end of speculation. After all, what's the point of amassing a giant collection of cardboard if you can't turn some of it back into cash?

The Outs

There are many ways to sell cards for cash. Here are the main ones:

TCG Player Store
eBay Store
Facebook Store
Brick and Mortar Store
Craiglist
MOTL
Online Store

Most of these are internet-based, which involves a low maintenance cost. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule.

A brick and mortar store requires a great deal of extra work, but does allow for larger profits. It requires hard work and dedication (it's not just hanging out with fellow players at a store that you happen to own). There are also a lot of extra costs associated with a brick and mortar store including overhead costs (facility maintenance, utilities, taxes, rent, etc.)

The next best thing is an actual online store (which several of our fellow QSers run), but there are hidden costs associated with that as well: upkeep costs, payment costs (to accept credit cards or PayPal), and last but not least shipping costs.

Most of us simply use eBay and TCG Player as our "store front" and sell cards that way, which is clean and easy. There are obvious risks; packages getting lost in the mail, people lie about not receiving them, there's a lot of competition.

If you run your store through eBay or TCG Player you have to sacrifice somewhere between 11-12.5% of your profit to these sites (including the cut that goes to PayPal or credit card companies) and potentially a bit more for packaging.

Last but not least you can use Facebook or other social media to buy and sell cards locally. This is great in that it keeps good cards local and eliminates the middle-man and shipping costs. The downside is you need a location that's okay with it and you have to meet people in person. The latter is an issue because carrying expensive things to strangers involves added risk.

Some Important Things to Remember

So now you've chosen your outs and how you'll turn that cardboard into cash. Keep these things in mind:

You can only sell what you have listed. I know this seems obvious, but it's something I have to constantly remind myself as I have a massive amount of stock that's just sitting in boxes and binders.
The money isn't yours until your customer is happy. What I mean by this is that when you sell online you're often paid instantly (on eBay) or with a slight delay (TCG Player), but if your customer is unhappy and complains you almost always have to refund them. Negative feedback and reviews is not something you want on your record. When someone pays you for your item you should do your best to package it safely and send it quickly.
Profit is profit. I know there's always a desire to wait for the price peak, but in all honesty if anyone could accurately predict them they'd be filthy rich. If you can make a decent profit now it's better than a bit more potential profit later. You certainly don't want to sell cards that have hit their lows, but if you have a spec that's jumped up a good amount it's best to sell it into the hype (which Corbin/Jason/etc. all state constantly).
The little things add up. While it may not be fun to list cards under $5 because it's a pain to mail off little stuff--and there's obviously a lower limit; mine is $2--here and there you can get cards as throw-ins and turn them into quarters and dollars. My personal favorite are casual all-stars that many now consider bulk.
There's value in the odd-balls. Recently I purchased a friend's massive collection of bulk and miscellaneous. In the boxes I found a full 2009 Planechase plane set (which I sold on eBay for $150) and some random Archenemy schemes (several of which were $6+ dollars). There were also over 200 bulk foils. After selling the Planechase planes and the bulk foils I've recouped my entire investment into this "bulk". I also found 14x Mind Funerals (four of which sold on eBay).
It's critical to keep yourself well-stocked. While it doesn't make sense to maintain a store-like stock at all times (unless you are in fact a store) focusing on cards that people consistently ask for is a good way to keep business flowing. It helps to keep track of what you've sold/traded so you can get a feel for the demand. I often write down a list of the rarer and hard-to-find stuff local players have asked me for. Before a big tournament I'll usually send them a message (or ask in person) if they still need some of those cards and I'll pick up what I can. Ideally, I focus on the cards that I know will be easy to find outs for. Cards like tutors (Vampiric, Demonic, Sylvan, Personal, Enlightened, Cruel and Worldly) are pretty safe stock and you'll often get favorable trades and/or good prices from the people who were looking for them.

The Ins

To keep selling cards you obviously need to replenish your stock. But what are the best ways to do so?

The personal buylist is my favorite. I created a group on Facebook for trading, buying and selling MTG cards. Not only does it serve as a way to sell cards, it also allows you to replenish supplies by offering people cash for their cards.
Craigslist is another favorite. Unfortunately, thanks to the popularity and economic strength of Magic, Craigslist is often inundated with people trying to sell their collections at full retail prices.
If you're a store you can set your own buylist. Most players will also check the internet from at least a few stores so your prices need to be competitive. At the same time if you don't feel there's enough local demand for a give card it's wise not to pick it up.
Keeping on good terms with as many players as possible always yields potential for good buying opportunities. Local players often come to me to unload an expensive card that local shops aren't buying or won't give them a good price on. Only one store in the area keeps Legacy/Modern stock, while the rest are almost exclusively Standard or EDH, so this situation benefits me significantly.

Organization

Staying organized is one of the harder things to do. The reason it's important is quite simple--you need to know what you have, what you've sold/traded, and what you're looking for. I suggest using an Excel worksheet to monitor what you've bought/sold/traded.

Keeping track of stock is more difficult. I happen to have a pretty good memory and have a general idea if I have a card or not when people ask, but obviously the more obscure ones are harder to remember.

However, there is a downside to immediately answering the question "Do you have Y?" Saying no gives them almost no incentive to look through your cards.

When it comes to your trade binder, it helps to have some form of organization. I've separated mine by format and color. There is some issue with multiformat cards, but my logic is that the card goes into the oldest format's binder.

This color and format coordination has proven useful time and time again, when someone needed some oddball card right before a tournament and were able to find it quickly in my binders.

Jason’s Alticle: Two Minutes to Midnight

Posted on January 28, 2014January 29, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, dictators!

How many of you stayed up yesterday thinking that Banned and Restricted announcement was last night?

Open Secret

The new policy is that the Banned and Restricted list update will take place after the prerelease has been in effect for a while, but it wasn't really clear to everyone just what that meant. A lot of people were confused as to when the announcement was taking place.

Following the right people on Twitter is a big help, and there was an article on the Wizards homepage announcing the announcement, but that is only useful for people who read articles on that site and happened across it. People who didn't know when the announcement was happening would have a hard time finding the article because they didn't know they needed to look for one.

Couple all of that noise with people disseminating the wrong date because the internet makes it hard to tell who knows what they're talking about and who is just smashing keys on their keyboard to make the voices stop. The announcement was not yesterday. It is six days from today.

Six days is not a lot of time, but it gives me a second to review my B&R announcement evening ritual of loading up online shopping carts full of cards that could go up due to unbannings and then emptying said carts instead of checking out should midnight come and go and bring no tidings of those cards' unbanning. In fact, I am going to walk you through the process right now.

First, I'll go to a retail website; let's pick Star City. I'll just put some copies of Bitterblossom in my shopping cart and HOLY $%@* IT'S SOLD OUT AT $35.

Y'all Is Crazy, Etc.

Why, folks? Why did Bitterblossom sell out already? Instead of waiting until we had some sort of confirmation, people are betting money on the outcome of the announcement.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for betting on this. Ryan Bushard and I make "who buys who dinner" bets all the time. Jon Johnson and Noah Whinston famously bet $1,000 on whether Jace, the Mind Sculptor was going to be unbanned in Modern roughly this time a year ago, if memory serves. I think those bets are fine.

I never thought in a million years that Jace would be unbanned in Modern, but I wasn't inclined to back that gut feeling with $1,000 of my own money. Similarly, I am certainly not going to bet my money on a Bitterblossom unbanning. There are a few outcomes here, and the downside is worse than you might think.

The way I see it, here are the potential outcomes:

Bitterblossom is unbanned and you, having bought quite a few copies at $20-$25ish or whatever price you managed to get in at when you noticed the price was moving, have your copies in hand. You sell them for probably $75 in the short term because that is likely what they would spike to in the near term until everyone calmed down and realized they paid Savannah money for a Bitterblossom. These could be $50+ because of how good they are in Modern and how dumb Modern prices are. If Fulminator Mage is $30, Bitterblossom can't be $30.
Bitterblossom doesn't get unbanned. Sorry about your luck. Not only does no one want these at $75 or $50 depending on the time frame, no one wants these at $35. You lose money on every copy and your girlfriend leaves you for a better speculator.

While the first scenario has significant upside, you are essentially betting on the reprint since you will lose money if the card is not unbanned. You will have copies you likely overpaid for and there will not be more demand than there was before talks of an unbanning began and it will be a buyers' market with many people trying to recoup but no buyers.

Why So Early?

I believe there are several factors that contributed to Bitterblossom selling out weeks in advance of the announcement, behavior we are unused to seeing.

The first factor is the glut of new speculators on the market. While conventional behavior in the past was to wait until the announcement actually went up, an influx of new actors has really upset tradition. For one, many of the new actors aren't as experienced as the community at large and might not have received any advice to wait until the list went up.

Inexperience may have caused people to buy too early, a common mistake for new speculators. Couple that with the sheer number of new speculators and even 1% of them making the mistake of buying too early was going to signal the market that there was movement on the card.

Once it started to sell out, people stampeded to get the copies under $30 and that was all she wrote. Even experienced speculators would know that there would be no copies under $35 by the time the announcement was made so if they wanted in at all they would have to commit then and there.

Another factor is the new trend of stores cancelling orders on cards that went up. This is not new per se, but what is new is the sheer volume of stores that used to be considered "safe" refusing to honor their pre-spike prices.

When the Pro Tour stop in Dublin saw significant spikes in the prices of many cards in the Mono-Blue devotion deck, many speculators got shafted when stores refused to honor their prices and cancelled orders. Filling a shopping cart and checking out at 12:01 is a great strategy provided the store won't just cancel your order.

After all, you would have no qualms about just not completing the transaction and stores are realizing they can get away with the same. Buying Bitterblossom for $25 at midnight isn't going to feel all that great if all you accomplished was alerting the store to a spiking price and reminding them to jack the price up when they relisted the copies they decided not to send to you.

With many stores adopting this practice, confidence is low, forcing speculators to commit to buying far enough in advance of the announcement that the stores would be sure to actually honor their prices.

My New Technique

It's a simple, yet effective technique and it's crazy enough to work. I am staying out of it. In years past I would try to think next level and rather than speculate on Bitterblossom I would buy cards that are not played in Modern right now because there is no Faeries deck, or B/W Tokens deck, etc.

Scion of Oona might go up as might Mistbind Clique or Zealous Persecution or Intangible Virtue. A Wild Nacatl unban might see Zoo cards like Knight of the Reliquary going up. Not everyone will think of these cards immediately, increasing the odds that you will get your copies sent and decreasing the odds that they will be bought out weeks in advance.

However, what I am really doing is sitting this one out. I don't have a strong inclination that anything will be banned or unbanned in Modern and I think the whole exercise will ultimately prove to be a futile.

A ban is just as likely as an unban with Birthing Pod and Deathrite Shaman touted as targets. Modern is a pretty diverse metagame right now and it's possible that nothing need be done. For all of the complaints about the number of Jund decks in the Top 8 of GP Detroit, Jund didn't even win the event and the deck has fallen off a bit since.

While someone who isn't me may make some money off of Bitterblossom, I decided as soon as I saw the price move that I was going to abstain. If you are inclined to fill an online cart full of faerie and token cards in anticipation of new archetypes being possible in Modern, be my guest.

But in the spirit of "do as I buy, not as I say" I am going to point out that there is safer money to be made on Modern cards. Pick a Modern rare from Lorwyn or Time Spiral block that is played in at least one deck. If it isn't $30, buy it now and wait until it is. This really is too easy sometimes.

Another technique is to pay attention to what this cartoon is doing. Can I stop him from saying stuff like "Speculate heavily on Primal Command?" No, I sure can't. But I really wish he would stop. If a bunch of sheep get burned on this "tip" they aren't going to blame Travis Woo, they are going to blame the finance community.

Either Woo doesn't realize that his proclamations aren't based on reality but rather a self-fulfilling prophecy, or he does realize that and he's trolling all of us. I'd give either outcome an equal chance of being the case.

The Weekend's Festivities

The weekend saw a Standard GP in Vancouver which was won by Alexander Hayne, his third win in his last seven Grands Prix. The city of Vancouver responded by burning police cars and looting store fronts.

I hate to gloss over an entire event, but there was only one real thing of import that happened in a Standard format that will be different next week. Okay, two things of import.

John Torrez got 90th at a Grand Prix. With Maze's End. Maze's End now has more GP Day Two finishes than I do, and it feels bad. So when before people would say, "Kiora will be great in Maze's End," and I would hear, "I am a cartoon character, giving you information that is technically accurate but totally useless," now I hear, "this will improve a GP Day Two qualifying deck".

I shouldn't roll my eyes; a deck archetype has proven it can do well at least one time and is a fun alternative to Mono-Boring Devotion if not an overly credible one.

The other thing of import was Alexander Hayne and friends jimmy-jamming a full playset of Archangel of Thune in the board to make the matchup with Mono-Blue Control, among others, a breeze.

Archangel has significant price upside but it was already pretty high. Casual appeal will keep you from losing too much if it doesn't take off. If these are still reasonable at the time of publication, people are going to want Archangels.

A Top 8 full of Mono-Blue, Mono-Black and Azorius is boring. I kind of wish Maze's End would have made Top 8. But, I also wish KYT had managed Top 8 (he got 11th) so, wish in one hand, I guess. Honestly, this GP was boring. Who cares about Standard right now?

I Made a "The Wire" Joke Last Time, Didn't I?

SCG Baltimore Standard Top 8

The Top 8 is a little less boring here. Is that because it's less optimal? No Alex Haynes or Matt Sperlings here. That could be it. What I do know is that there are more interesting decks here. Honestly, how much do you want me to get into it? There's nothing new here, is there?

There is a decent amount of G/R here. Domri Rade has room to go up and Xenagos the God could get at least tested in these decks. I think that's a card you pop in a pack and try to ship at the prerelease, but if it sees play it could sustain its price giving you time to get out of your copies.

Mono-Black is doing well, and with the removal it's about to get, it could surely improve.

Red is getting the second coming of Searing Blaze and a durdly phoenix that may or may not see play. Expect people to at least test the phoenix.

Standard doesn't matter anymore. Next time people play it, there will be different decks.

SCG Baltimore Legacy Top 8

So in the same weekend Maze's End manages Day Two, Lands wins a Legacy Open? It's a good time to invest in real estate, I guess. There aren't many good spec targets in this deck, and its finish is based on the Dark Depths combo which could see more finishes like this in the future. Thanks, Thespian's Stage. Pet deck of the week or future contender?

Three Delver decks in the Top 8? Maybe Legacy could use bans more than Modern? Kidding, but there has been talk about True-Name Nemesis on the chopping block, which would be one of the bigger WotC blunders in recent memory if they have to acknowledge that a non-interactive merfolk is running roughshod over Legacy.

Death and Taxes continues to prove it's a Tier 1 contender. Again, not much room for profiting here.

Painted Stone manages Top 8. I'm giving this "Pet Deck of the Week" although the hope is that Legacy will return to being a pet deck format some day. Only one Blade variant in the Top 8 is encouraging. More were in the Top 16.

Also Top 16 were two Elves decks that bubbled out on tiebreakers. Better luck next time, guys.

Waiting for Me to Stop Talking

We will have to see if Born of the Gods contributes anything to Legacy, but based on these results, Legacy is insanely healthy and shouldn't need to be shaken up by any bannings. You can wait with bated breath and a full shopping cart, but I can think of a lot of ways I'd rather spend the last two minutes to midnight.

Insider: [MTGO] Early Picks for the Modern Season

Posted on January 28, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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As the Modern season on MTGO is approaching and prices are trending up, I'm taking a break from my "How to" articles to talk a little bit about Modern perspectives and speculation opportunities.

Due to this year's PT schedule changes, Modern season has been postponed with respect to the two past years. Previously, Modern qualifier seasons for PTs Avacyn Restored and Dragon's Maze started around mid-November. For our purpose, I consider the Modern season to begin when prices start rising significantly. The Modern PTQ season per say spread from January to April.

Here are two classic examples Chord of Calling and Gifts Ungiven. You can even notice that there was an opportunity for some profits in between the two Modern seaons.

For PTs being held in May, prices on MTGO start moving in November, six months earlier. Keep in mind that people will look for cards online not only for the dozens of MTGO PTQs, but also to practice for the hundreds of PTQs all around the world.

This year, the qualifier season for PT "Huey" in October will be Modern. Applying the same time frame as for the past two years, Modern cards prices should start rising around April this year. Prices should be flat or low until that moment, especially since the Modern season has been postponed for about six months.

Thanks to a new feature from MtgoGoldfish, we now have access to a new index: Modern Staples. The index takes into account 140+ of Modern's most used cards and represents a strong approximation of how Modern prices evolve over time.

As you can see, prices as a whole have increased by 50 % between November 2012 and February 2013. However, despite the MMA release and a small dip in June, prices went back up as soon as July. After a "Theros break," the Modern index is now at its highest.

The Modern Index

In previous years, most Modern staples also experienced a secondary peak around August, before the releases of the core set and the new block. One might compare prices right now to August of past years (since prices are high despite being "off season"), and conclude that we should see a significant drop in prices until next April. However, some figures and facts don't lead me to expect a big decrease in Modern staples anytime soon.

Current State of Modern

Not all Modern staples are equal. Whereas some cards remain mostly flat, others have recently hit their personal record or are very close: Through the Breach, Goryo's Vengeance, the Zendikar fetchlands (prior to ZZW drafts), Splinter Twin, Torpor Orb, Fulminator Mage, Remand, Spectral Procession...

Two other examples reveal a lot about Modern potential.

The M12 version of Primeval Titan has hit a new record, and is now more expensive than it was during its Standard era when the titan was a house. What will its price be in the heat of the Modern season?
Tarmogoyf has almost reached its highest, despite being recently reprinted in MMA. More than 100 tix in three months?

Here's is what all this indicates to me:

The Modern Staples index is likely to keep increasing every week until next April, probably with a little break during Born of the Gods release events.
The prices are not as low now as we might have expected. I'm not sure they will get significantly lower before the next Modern season kicks in. Born of the Gods release events might constitute the last "big" opportunity to invest in Modern staples.
The constructed format of the next PT (PT Valencia, 21-23 February) is Modern. If a GP (GP Prague) is enough to raise the price of cards such as Geist of Saint Traft and Fist of Suns by 33% and 200%, respectively, what do you think a Modern PT will do two months away from the PTQ Modern season? Set the prices on fire?

The Modern format is undeniably getting quite popular. Rares and mythics that have not been reprinted in MMA could go through the roof, yet again. For these reasons, taking Modern positions now, and especially the cards that still remain under the radar, is probably a good idea.

You may want to keep an eye on all the cards that are currently high. Not only are they likely to get more expensive during the Modern season, they are also likely to drop during Born of the Gods release events. They could eventually represent a good opportunity.

Finding Dormant Opportunities

As a whole, Modern staples are currently at an historical high. Individually, some cards, including Modern staples, present a excellent buying opportunity right now.

As said many times before, Modern cards prices are highly cyclical. Thus, it is fairly easy to predict the future trend of a given card, especially if that card has been used in the past--it will be again during the next Modern season, 99.9% sure.

In this context, buying as close as possible to the bottom is what matters. Because Modern cards are more and more in demand, the relative bottom of each card is changing continuously, and the ceiling is getting higher and higher (providing there's no reprint).

Alternatively, another approach to buying Modern cards is to buy far enough below the highest and generate some profits when prices rise again. As for me, when a card reaches about 66% or less of its previous ceiling, I consider buying it. This leaves me 50% or more for potential profit if, as expected, previous ceilings are reached again at some point.

With this in mind, here is a list of cards that you may want to consider for Modern investments at this time.

Note these cards were selected at the end of last week, so they might not be as appealing now. Always use your best judgment to decide for yourself where to invest.

Zendikar/Worldwake

ZZW drafts gave us an excellent opportunity to stock Modern staples from these two sets, and there's plenty of them. The ZEN fetchlands drew most of the attention, and after a small decrease they are already back up (as of writing).

Therefore they might not be as exciting as anticipated, and they don't leave much room for profit. However, besides the fetchlands, many other cards are really interesting right now.

Most of these cards have fallen to at least 50% of their potential highest during Modern season. If they are still that low when you read these lines, you should consider taking some positions.

"Older" Modern Staples

The cards below have shown their value in the Modern format. They have not been reprinted in MMA and currently have good buying value. Because they are not MMA reprints, their availability is still quite limited and could reach new heights during the Modern season.

MMA Modern Staples

Another category of potential targets is the MMA reprints. Most of these cards used to have a high price tag, and MMA changed everything. These cards hit a very low new bottom last summer. I don't necessarily expect them to rebound to their previous highs, but they have a strong speculative potential. Remember to compare the MMA prices to the original printings' prices to have an idea of the potential.

Some Underdogs

Finally, some cards that you may want to consider as they might play a role in the next Modern metagame, and still have a low price tag. Typically, I'm talking about Standard cards or rotating-out-of Standard cards.

Note that some of these cards play multiple roles at once, i.e. their value can increase because of being Modern-, Legacy- or Standard-playable cards, and because of redemption. Anyway, I think the Modern season constitutes a great opportunity for these cards to peak.

Take-Home Messages

Modern has proven several times to be Magic Christmasland for speculators. Modern attracts more and more people every year and prices of cards keep climbing a little bit every time we face a Modern season.

This year, the Modern season should start around April. However, prices are already up and have hit a new record recently. A Modern PT roughly a month before the Modern season kicks off is something we haven't experienced the past two years.

Born of the Gods release events should constitute the last opportunity to grab Modern staples at decent prices, and this might not be true for all Modern cards. Starting with the cards I mentioned today, I suggest you pay close attention to the Modern staples that are relatively low now, as they might not go down further.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Capitalizing on the Buyout

Posted on January 27, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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If I learned one lesson last week, it would have to be some tough love from Wall Street. As crazy as MTG finance can be, I was ill-prepared for this surprise:

Talk about a bad day. But with every major stock market event like this one there is a valuable lesson to be learned. If we do not improve our strategies from these happenings we can never become stronger investors.

The lesson this time: as the market becomes inflated it’s always okay to sell, especially for hefty profits.

The thing is, selling on Wall Street is so easy that there’s almost no excuse not to take profits on occasion. With buy/sell spreads being fractions of a penny, you’re guaranteed to obtain a fair market price. Or if you’d rather wait for your own price, it’s easy to set a limit and have your broker sell your stock the moment someone else is willing to pay your price.

Application to MTG: Some Limitations

The world of MTG finance isn’t set up as conveniently. I have no option to set a limit sell price on my Fist of Suns so that the moment they hit a peak during a spike, my copies sell. Believe me, if this was an option I would have been ecstatic…like these two sellers probably were:

Talk about a nice sell price.

But we all know this isn’t an option. The average individual has to rely on quick wits, tools like TCG Player and eBay, buylists, and a little luck in order to obtain highly favorable prices. And even still, only a few of us sellers can really capitalize fully on a price spike. Once word gets out, everyone digs out their old copies and/or receives their recently acquired copies online and the race to the bottom begins.

Here’s what the market for Fist of Suns is now:

Quite a bit different, right? We’re looking at a price difference of over 100% between the peak prices and the selling prices one week later. If you had acquired a set at $12, you are looking at a profit drop from $50 to $10 in seven days time. Clearly the prepared are most often rewarded.

There Is Hope

Although we can’t readily set limit orders with Magic Cards like we can with Wall Street brokerage firms, there are some measures you can take to increase your chances of capitalizing the most during buyouts.

First, make sure you keep up with Insider forum discussions, Twitter, and mtgstocks.com. These resources will help you learn about any sudden price movement at the earliest. If you rely on word of mouth at your LGS, you could completely miss a jump and sudden decline. Remaining in touch with the community through digital media is a must nowadays.

Once a spike does occur, you have to be prepared to sell any copies you currently own. Fast. There have been occasions when I have woken up to my 6:30 am alarm on a work day and checked mtgstocks.com only to observe a buyout had occurred the night before. Within 30 minutes I will have my copies listed on eBay.

I recently did this with a handful of Serra's Sanctums I had speculated on when Theros was rumored to be enchantment-themed. The buyout was delayed, but the moment these spiked my cards were listed and quickly sold out.

Within days these began their retreat, and copies were selling more and more slowly online. While I still couldn’t quite hit the exact peak sell price, I know I was better off listing my cards that morning at 7 am than I would have been even if I had waited until the end of the day.

This effect is magnified with newer cards, where copies are so readily available. At least with Serra's Sanctum there are far fewer copies in circulation, and the Reserved List provided me with even greater protection.

Now if only I could get a similar buyout spike from Wheel of Fortune. I’m sitting on a dozen or so copies, and I cannot wait for someone to decide Revised copies of this card need to be $20+. My copies will be the first ones to hit eBay when this happens.

Aside over, the next piece of advice I have involves a clever way of passively monitoring demand for a particular card you’re speculating on. I’ve seen others in the QS Forums refer to this strategy in the past, and I personally think it’s a clever idea. Simply put: list one set of your speculative card online for sale at a moderately high price--high enough so that people won’t be likely to buy until most the cheaper versions sell first.

This strategy requires minimal effort and costs you absolutely nothing. Yet it provides you with a passive way of making sure you never miss a spike. When I sell cards on eBay my eBay phone app immediately makes a satisfying cash register sound. When this occurs I promptly check the device to see what sold.

If your “tracker” playset sells, you know a spike may be occurring. Then with this new information you are free to relist the remaining copies you have at an appropriately higher price.

No Substitute for Being Ahead of the Game

Of course in order to follow this advice you need to already have copies in your possession. This goes back to a previous article I wrote--it does you no good to buy cards after they’ve spiked in the hopes that you can find a “greater fool”. The dwindling reward is simply not worth the increasing risk.

Let’s face it, if you didn’t get copies of Norin the Wary for under $2 you didn’t do so well.

Naturally having cards in your possession before they spike is much more useful, enabling you to capitalize most on these buyouts. If you find yourself buying copies in response to a spike, even if your buy price is favorable, you will immediately have to settle for below-peak pricing.

By the time your cards arrive in the mail, the spike is already passed and the race to the bottom has begun. In these cases, you cannot be greedy--list your copies as the cheapest online and sell them immediately before someone undercuts you.

As for the times when you do already have cards in your possession during a buyout, it is always fine to sell into that hype. You may not time your sale perfectly, but your copies will move much more quickly and at a price dictated by you rather than a plummeting market. It is your right to sell these cards at higher prices while people go crazy over the buyout--execute it effectively and you’ll be on your way to bigger and better profits. After all, no one wants to be left holding the hot potato when this happens…

…

Sigbits (Yay It’s Back!)

A while back I surprised even myself when I wrote about how foil Eldrazi had all shot up in price. Turns out nonfoil copies were also a wise investment. Our friend Kozilek, Butcher of Truth now retails for $49.99 and foils will set you back $119.99…if SCG wasn’t sold out!!
There aren’t many foil Melira, Sylvok Outcasts on eBay or SCG these days. The cheapest Buy It Now on eBay is $7 shipped, and retail is only slightly higher at $7.99. I expect these to hit $10 retail during Modern season easily.
Remember when I used to warn people that SCG had over 100 Force of Will in stock and that they were dropping in price rapidly? Yeah, that warning doesn’t have merit any longer. Expect a move higher on these after all.

Insider: Born of the Gods

Posted on January 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Spoiler season is almost over for Born of the Gods (BNG) as we get the full list on Sunday night. A few spoiled cards already have peaked my interest and are worth talking about.

Brimaz

Hands down the most splashy spoiler yet, Brimaz, King of Oreskos looks set to be included in any white-based deck, either in Block or Standard, for the foreseeable future.

Lately I've been tinkering around with Death and Taxes in Legacy and slotting Brimaz into the deck instead of Mirran Crusader seems worth testing. Mirran Crusader does well against Tarmogoyf, but can't get by True-Name Nemesis. At least with four toughness, Brimaz can swing into the fearsome 3cc merfolk, generating a 1/1 token in the process.

As for Modern, some fringe black-white token builds have had success. Those decks often feature Hero of Bladehold at the top of the curve. Brimaz fits right into the strategy and tightens up the curve considerably. I'll be keen to see this card's impact in the various constructed formats.

Note that PT Valencia will feature Modern Constructed, so if there's a hint that Brimaz is making a splash there, this card will skyrocket in the short term. Another potential target to consider when looking at a token archetype is Windbrisk Heights.

Mogis and Xenagos

The gods of BNG, with a devotion requirement of seven, look like they will rarely get turned on as a creature. Xenagos, God of Revels will at least be tried in Standard, and seems to fit naturally into the Block R/G decks which have already been a force in that format.

However, a 5cc Fires of Yavimaya effect seems costly. The hype on this card might push the price too high for it to be worthwhile to speculate on in the short run.

On the other hand, Mogis, God of Slaughter might see more play, possibly even in Modern. This card is a quasi-hybrid of The Abyss and Sulfuric Vortex, both of which are powerful in their own right. A 4cc, indestructible Sulfuric Vortex might be playable in Modern, even without the clause that prevents life gain.

Swinging into the red zone with this card might be a fanciful thought, but not out of the question if red-based decks bend towards permanents and away from burn. I'll be keeping my eyes on this one, and doing a little brewing of my own with it.

Heroic

There's a growing density of spoiled creatures with heroic that could eventually tip over into a deck. At the very least it looks like Theros (THS) Block Constructed should feature a deck built around the heroic mechanic.

With that in mind, cards like Fabled Hero should be kept an eye on. Previously I've liked buying this card for 0.15 tix or less, but I might bump up that threshold.

It might turn out that heroic never makes the cut in Standard, but WoTC has made mistakes in the past with linear mechanics. At the very least it looks like they are pushing these cards to be fringe playable so that someone can have fun at Friday Night Magic.

For the moment, don't get too excited about any of the heroic cards in BNG. It will probably take the full block for a good enough deck to assemble. Do keep tabs on the cards like Hero of Leina Tower. If this card got down to junk rare prices, I wouldn't hesitate to start building a stash of them, just in case heroic turns out to be a decent deck.

Zendikar-Zendikar-Worldwake Queues

I feel like I would be remiss not to mention the current flashback draft format and its effect on the MTGO market.

When I logged onto MTGO last night, the combination of Swiss and 8-4 ZZW queues was the most popular draft format from 6 pm to 9 pm EST. This morning, there was still a healthy amount of queues firing from 4 am to 7 am EST, almost equaling the amount of THS queues fired over that same time period.

This is a popular draft format that's fast and fun, and the effect on the market has been apparent in the lower prices we've seen on fetchlands. The falling price on these cards is a good opportunity for speculators.

It's safe to say that drafting will peak in popularity on the weekend when more people have free time to play MTGO. This should coincide roughly with the price bottom on these cards, so get your tix ready for Saturday and Sunday.

Modern continues to grow in popularity and the PTQ season is on the horizon. PTQs are even set to return to MTGO. Don't miss out on this opportunity--at the very least consider picking up your play set if you haven't already done so.

Insider: The Event Horizon

Posted on January 24, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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Born of the Gods spoilers are in full swing - and for now - the giant question on everyone's mind is "Which way do you go?". Beyond just a giant list of "Eh, this card looks good." I'd like to focus this week on looking at what the spoilers so far have really shown us. Also, in this weeks article, a little tid bit of information that has gone largely untalked about. For now, let's jump in to what Theros block has in store for us.

What we've seen so far:

1.) The Gods Matter:

If you have any doubt, at all, about what impact these series of Mythics will have, let me put your mind at rest. At some point all 15 Gods will have an impact, financially speaking. All of them are showing there is a high level of playability, strategy, and implication in what's to come. The mere presence of one God in a deck means if there is no plan for it - the opponent is probably cold to it should it come online. This is just because of the indestructibility factor, on its own. As the information available is still incomplete, we see that all of the Gods are showing they have a relatively solid ability and a massive headache if they achieve POWERED UP! status.

How does this impact the financial side of them? Every player I've ran into is still undervaluing their impact in the short-term, long-term, and interim. This means their value is repressed as the mentality is they are not that strong. Not only are they one of a kind, but their individual effects are mass appealing to all aspects of players. As of now, they are not all impacting Standard. But as Wizards as mentioned, Theros block is very much the "Top Down" set design. This alone tells us that these are going to be the flagship of each set. Look for most of the answers that Wizards implements to rise in value in stride with the Gods as they see more play.

Once we have the full cycle, then I expect we will fully understand where they position themselves to be. By then, Modern will have fleshed out the first 10 along with Nykthos, and Commander players will still be giggling with joy every time they cast one. Just remember, these are the flagships of this entire block. Likely, they will be very similar to Karn in both how he progressed during the block, and post rotation. Mostly with an eye of suspicion and and "Oh, that's cute." More than likely it will take a year(+) to reach their full potential. Keep your eyes on these. A solid 150%-200% improvement is my current estimation.

2.) Critical Mass:

The format we are heading into, is strictly going to be a critical mass style. Heroic, Devotion, and Bestow reveal this. Obviously, Devotion decks have been making a large impact in Standard already. Some of that is beginning to trickle into Modern, effecting prices of some off the wall cards. Heroic is starting to be fully fleshed out with the release of Born of the Gods. The main point of emphasis here though is that removal is going to see a heavy lean on in a format like this. Specifically discard, exile effects, and counter spells. The main reason why is Bestow Is Here To Stay.

3.) The Bestow Mechanic:

Bestow was first viewed as kind of cute. Obviously though, the storyline is pushing more and more Bestow creatures into the world of us mortals. How this is shaping up will effect the answers that are printed. It's apparent that the ones we have will not be enough to keep them in check. At this point, we have a couple of examples of cards that do this, but until this recent development, the prices have still been undervalued. Now it's apparent so much of Born of the Gods and Journey Into Nyx will have Enchantment Creatures and not just the World Enchantments most envisioned this "Enchantment-centric" block being about.

This means that cards that were once viewed as narrow answers should begin to pick up in steam. Theros itself pulled a little "Rope-a-Dope" on what was going to take place. But now with all the spoilers revealing the high percentage of universal enchantments, a card like Swan Song is looking more and more like a bonafide Counterspell reprint. Look for most cards in the rare/mythic slot to experience an up-tick in demand and thus a sharp uptick in price.

4.) Magic 2015 will introduce 80 Uncommons:

Something that hasn't really been getting much publicity this week, but surely will affect things is the seemingly innocuous rise in uncommons from 60 to 80 starting with Magic 2015. As this doesn't have nearly the impact on Theros block as it will in the future, the question lingers - "How will this impact uncommon prices?"

In my mind, this will lower some and increase others. The natural response to more, is less. The quality of each uncommon should see a decrease and while that happens, an increase in price for the uncommons in demand. Larger print runs of uncommons will obviously put a strain on early singles development and a premium on those that can have them in stock. Don't neglect this potential in the future, as most uncommons bulk prices are firmly set at $.05 or less across the board. Buyers are slow to adjust to change, so this could impact your portfolio as the full impact is realized on this subtle, but powerful change. I'm curious on your thoughts, so please leave thoughts in the comments, as I would love to hear your opinions on this.

Keep an Eye on the Horizon -

-Dylan

A New Kind of Blue Devotion

Posted on January 23, 2014January 29, 2014 by Mike Lanigan

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Last Friday I was excited to play more games with the B/W Humans deck I’ve been working on. After spending many hours tuning the deck and tweaking the sideboard, it was finally time for FNM. As I sat down for round one I was bursting with excitement for the Friday event as well as SCG Columbus the next day.

As the game progressed the air was let out of my sails. Every play I made seemed completely negated by the slightest attention from my opponent. The Big Boros deck quickly dismantled my entire strategy with ease. We were the first match done, which left me staggering and trying to figure out what had just happened.

The rest of the night did not go much better but I stuck with it because I needed to truly decipher the deck's strengths and weaknesses. Even though I felt the deck was strong and I had direction for changes to improve it, I could not move past the fact that it had a hard time defeating random decks. Certainly it was reasonable against most decks in the metagame, but what about everything else my opponents might play?

After FNM I was left with a choice: try to make some changes and run them with no testing the next day, or switch decks.

After spending a short amount of time thinking of potential changes, I dismissed the aggro deck as a possibility and moved on to something else.

My thoughts quickly went to Mono-Blue Devotion. I like the deck quite a bit still and I have a decent amount of experience with it. We all know Mono-Blue consistently does well at events and I feel I play the deck competently, so I set out to rebuild it.

As I was putting it together, I searched, yet again, for additional tech to put into the deck to gain an angle on the metagame. Let me assure you, there is none. The best thing I could come up with was playing Disperse instead of Cyclonic Rift so I could protect something of my own, which is hardly a change at all.

At the Last Minute…

After the deck was built, I closed the shop and headed home. As I was driving, I couldn’t stop thinking about my deck choice. How could I go into the event with a stock Mono-Blue list? Not only was that not my style, but everyone would know exactly how to play against me because certainly they have had numerous repetitions against this exact deck.

Especially after two year-end reviews have proven that I am much more successful with a deck of my own making, how could I play a list that is commonly known by every competitive player? The drive home is not long, but my brain was in overdrive searching for an idea to roll with.

Then it hit me. Like a sack of bricks to the head, it hit me. It almost made me pull over to the side of the highway from the force of it. I could combine the aggressive power of Mono-Blue with the best part of Mono-Black.

By this point in time, I think we can all agree the best part of Mono-Black is the disruption of Thoughtseize and the resilient dominance of Pack Rat. With that thought firmly implanted in my head, I set out to incorporate those two cards into a Mono-Blue Devotion shell.

The main issue I faced in building this deck was of course the mana. How could I expect to cast Thoughtseize early in the game plus also Tidebinder Mage and Frostburn Weird?

My thoughts drifted back to a conversation early in the night about including Omenspeaker instead of Frostburn Weird. Omenspeaker seemed to fix all of my problems. Not only did it cost a single blue but the two scry effect would smooth out many of the possible draws. What came out of my midnight brewing session is something truly amazing. I present to you…

Dimir Devotion

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Cloudfin Raptor

3 Judge's Familiar

4 Pack Rat

4 Omenspeaker

4 Nightveil Specter

4 Thassa, God of the Sea

4 Master of Waves

Spells

3 Thoughtseize

1 Rapid Hybridization

1 Disperse

2 Bident of Thassa

2 Jace, Architect of Thought

Lands

4 Watery Grave

4 Temple of Deceit

4 Mutavault

4 Swamp

8 Island

Sideboard

3 Doom Blade

2 Dark Betrayal

1 Triton Tactics

2 Domestication

4 Gainsay

2 Notion Thief

1 Aetherling

The Rounds

Round one I sat down for my first game with this deck. While this is not normally a good idea, sometimes when you make a breakthrough in deck design, you just have to go with it.

My first opponent was playing Mono-Black Devotion and quickly got ahead of me on the board in both games. In game two, I even made a play mistake by casting Rapid Hybridization on my own turn instead of hers which let her get in three extra damage. That misplay almost cost me the game.

Despite being behind on the board in both games one and two, the power of this deck prevailed and I was able to grind my way back gradually with Omenspeaker, Thassa, and then Master of Waves.

I ended game one at five life and game two at three. In both games, I had been at a low life total for most of the game yet was able to overcome that obstacle and obtain victory. After the match I sat in awe of how powerful this deck was and tried to refocus before the next round.

In round two, I faced some monsters of the red and green variety. The first and second games were pretty one-sided, with each of us showing off the power of our decks. Game three was an extremely close affair that had a huge decision tree to navigate.

One of the most powerful starts my opponents deck is capable of is turn two Domri Rade. The reason for this is because often Dimir Devotion cannot rid the board of Domri before they untap for their turn three. Once they activate Domri again after playing their first huge monster and start fighting your creatures, you are faced with an uphill battle. Eventually I was able to stabilize and finish off the Domri, but at great cost.

The other card that stands in your way of winning is the Ghor-Clan Rampager hidden in their hand. The possibility of Rampager makes all of your blocks potentially disastrous. It was the second Rampager that sealed the second round in favor of my opponent.

There were many plays I could have made that differed from my line, but ultimately any different plays would have still resulted in losing to his second bloodrush creature.

The third round was a stressful affair where I was constantly in fear of my life at the hands of G/W Aggro. Andrew Shrout’s version of this deck is capable of some devastatingly fast draws. Be wary of any opponent sporting this deck.

In the first game I was busy creating a Pack Rat army while my he was searching for lands to cast his spells. Thoughtseize stripped his hand of some early plays to evolve Experiment One. Game two, his army of one-drops overwhelmed me quickly and Selesnya Charm made my blocks fail twice.

Game three was back and forth, but eventually I had an army of blockers that he could not fight through. There were some tricky combat situations, but post-board once I have more removal, pump spells become much less effective. He had Last Breath for some of my guys but the four life I gain is more of a liability than he realized.

Round four I found myself facing Mono-Black yet again. This time went much differently than the first though. Both of the games I lost to this deck featured me mulliganning and him stripping my hand of all relevant plays with Thoughtseize.

In a game where both of those things don’t happen, I believe my deck is favored to win. Game one is a great example of how this deck can play out. When he finished beating me down, he sideboarded like it was a Mono-Black Devotion mirror match.

Some games, it plays like I am just Mono-Black with a couple extra blue mana sources. This allowed for an easy game two where he had no answer to Master of Waves. Sadly, game three featured both a mulligan and then two Thoughtseizes to dismantle any hope I had left in the tournament.

Even though I was 2-2, I still stayed in for one more round but variance overwhelmed me once more. Game one was an easy win against Esper Control as Thoughtseize nabbed Supreme Verdict and my Pack Rat army quickly ended the game.

The second game would have been an easy win but I never drew blue mana, instead I drew all blue cards I could not cast. Game three was a joke of a game as I sat powerlessly drawing all of my lands as he ultimated his Jace. Even though Omenspeaker weakens this matchup quite a bit, it is not as hard to win as this match made it seem.

Reflections and Modifications

Although my tournament was not a success, I loved the deck and would bring the same deck to battle again if I had a do over. The deck has quite a few powerful draws and a lot of synergy.

Think about being able to protect your Master of Waves with Thoughtseize the turn before you cast your army-making machine. You can also have Cloudfin Raptor into Pack Rat with a follow up Nightveil Specter in case they kill the rat. It’s really powerful that every rat you make pumps the Cloudfin too.

Judge's Familiar turn one to protect the Pack Rat turn two is a sequence most opponents won’t be prepared for. And the mere presence of Pack Rat in your deck can lead to some easy wins.

Despite my poor results, the deck is great and capable of winning an event for you. I already made some changes to improve it even more. The main change was cutting the one of Rapid Hybridization. In this version, it is a liability more than it is helpful.

Some may not agree with the next part, but every game I played, I found this card lacking in a major way. I don’t know if it’s just how I play this deck, but Jace, Architect of Thought was unimpressive for me all day. I moved him to the sideboard and since then, I’ve been more happy having some removal main deck. Take a look at the current version.

Updated Dimir Devotion

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Cloudfin Raptor

3 Judge's Familiar

4 Pack Rat

4 Omenspeaker

4 Nightveil Specter

4 Thassa, God of the Sea

4 Master of Waves

Spells

3 Thoughtseize

2 Ultimate Price

2 Disperse

2 Bident of Thassa

Lands

4 Watery Grave

4 Temple of Deceit

4 Mutavault

4 Swamp

8 Island

Sideboard

3 Doom Blade

2 Dark Betrayal

1 Jace, Architect of Thought

2 Domestication

4 Gainsay

2 Notion Thief

1 Aetherling

We may be about to shake things up in Standard, but this deck is worth checking out. Let me know what you think about it in the comments.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

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