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Insider: Reviewing Past Calls

Posted on by David Schumann

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I began writing for QS back in January of this year. Doing my own version of Time Walk I wanted to revisit some of my calls and grade myself.

I will try to be as unbiased as possible. For each section I'll look at buy and sell recommendations I made, and ask how these investments would have panned out had you made them.

01/08/13 -- Modern Masters and "Limited Release"

Buy

While I didn't specify any specific cards, I did say,

"I'm only going to call 'hold' on mythics, expecting limited price drops followed by gradual price increases as more players enter the Modern/Legacy formats. Unless, of course, you can flip the cards quickly and easily, in which case it would be best to sell as they will have a price dip as more enter the supply.

Sell

Again, I didn't specific any specific cards, but I did make a call based on rarity.

"Regular rares, however, I advocate a 'sell' before Modern Masters is released and a buy after Modern Masters has been available for a couple months. This strategy should be the most lucrative."

Verdict:

I'm still proud to say that my first calls were spot on.

The cards printed at regular rare almost all devalued somewhat. Major ones like Doubling Season dropped by quite a bit while Cryptic Command dropped a much smaller margin.

I stand by my call to hold mythics, though in all fairness I should have added a caveat that the mythics to hold needed to be Eternal-playable. (When I did this article the only cards spoiled were City of Brass and Tarmogoyf.) I did not see the Kamigawa dragon cycle taking up 5 mythic slots, as my impression (as many of us believed) was that MM would be chock full of Modern/Legacy staples and not many (or any) casual favorites.

The only thing I was wrong about was that two of the three major mythics of the set (Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant) saw no price drop, while Vendilion Clique saw a minor one (as expected). To be fair though, at the time we had no idea what the print size of MM would be and it turned out to be far more limited than expected.

Grade: A

01/22/13 -- Speculating from Spoilers

Buy

  • Abrupt Decay
  • Supreme Verdict
  • Misthollow Griffin
  • Boros Charm

Sell

  • Gideon, Champion of Justice
  • Enter the Infinite (with a suggestion rebuy after the initial price drop)

Verdict: Comparing current prices to prices at the time shows I was dead on for everything but Misthollow Griffin. I still think that the risk on this card is insanely low for something with such a unique ability. I also mentioned that I only picked them up at bulk or near bulk status (75 cents or less) so if you agreed and have a big pile of them I suggest holding onto them for now. The Food Chain deck didn't pan out, but that doesn't meant this guy couldn't become an all star down the road fueling that or another similar combo.

Grade: A

01/29/13 -- The Tide of Tier 2 Legacy Decks

Buy

  • Firestorm
  • Deathrite Shaman
  • Rest in Peace (foil and nonfoil)
  • Blue Sun's Zenith
  • Extirpate

Sell

  • None

Verdict: I still don't think Firestorm, Deathrite Shaman or Rest in Peace are bad pickups. RIP has taken a downturn recently with the influx of Abrupt Decay decks. Blue Sun's Zenith and Extirpate never really caught on (especially since Deathrite became the go-to graveyard hate). While I wouldn't be upset with myself if I'd picked up a few copies of either, neither materialized into any real gains.

Grade: C

02/19/13 -- Scanning For Oddballs #2

Buy

  • Ensnaring Bridge
  • Meekstone
  • Thrun, the Last Troll
  • Through the Breach
  • Not of this World (Foil)
  • Thespian's Stage

Sell

  • Pernicious Deed

Verdict: I'm pretty proud of this one too. At the time of writing, Ensnaring Bridge was around $2-3 each. It is now in the $6-7 range. Meekstone was around $1-2 dollars and still sits around there (I failed to account for the multiple printings that mean a large amount of supply with limited demand).

Thrun, the Last Troll has dropped a bit (he was around $8-9 at the writing of this) and is now in the $6-7 range, however, I wrote the article during Modern season when there was a seasonal demand for him. I expect him to go right back up to the $8-10 range during Modern season (higher if Jund does well and a control decks makes its way into the field).

Through the Breach is in the same boat. It was $4-5 and is now $4, and again I expect a jump during Modern season. Not of this World hasn't seen any play outside of fringe sideboard strategies, though it's price remained exactly the same then as it is today.

Thespian's Stage may get a bump due to the new legendary rule change and how well it plays with Dark Depths (which will also get a bump), but it hasn't made the waves I'd hoped it would. Pernicious Deed has dropped from $20 to $15 courtesy of Nic Fit's fall from the limelight in Legacy. If it ever hits $10 I'd pick them up as it's too good for Standard and amazing in EDH (which will always provide demand), but the casual demand isn't high enough to warrant a reprint in any sort of non-Standard print run.

Grade: B+

03/05/13 -- Long-Term Investments

Buy

  • Gatecrash Primordial Cycle
  • Gruul Ragebeast
  • Angelic Skirmisher
  • Lazav, Dimir Mastermind
  • Thespian's Stage (again)

Sell

  • None

Verdict: None of the cards I called have made any tremendous strides. However, the exact purpose of the article was on long term specs and I still believe in all the ones I picked out.

I've already seen a lot of interest from the casual for the Primordials, but a lot of Gatecrash was opened so a lot of them are floating around. That may be the only downside to these picks. I expect all of them to go up some, but if the player base doesn't grow as drastically as it has recently, then the supply will remain high.

Grade: Incomplete

Overall we got; A, A, B+, C, and an incomplete. That C really hurts, but the Legacy metagame is fickle and new strategies can quickly nullify old strategies or make once-good decks bad again.

Neither of the calls that warrant the C would have lost you any money (in fact Extirpate may still go up if it can hose any major modern strategies). But they didn't gain you any money. . . .and money invested in a flat stock is only slightly better than money in a downward stock. We all get a limited amount of time on earth and it's critical to spend it wisely.

Insider: Some Arbitrage Ideas to Ponder

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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I’ve talked about arbitrage in the past. From Wikipedia, arbitrage can be defined as:

“The practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices.”

These exploitable price differences become more and more scarce as technology evolves. Think about times before the internet–-few people had perfect information, leading to a world of opportunities for arbitrage. In the 21st century, the opportunities are dwindling. Many remaining arbitrage areas are left behind due to their inefficiency, therefore making it difficult to actually make a worthwhile profit.

In Magic: the Gathering, there are a superfluous number of markets. So much so that it’s nearly impossible for every market to align in a state of perfect efficiency. Information still travels through word of mouth, much more slowly than any Wall Street news for example. The result: plenty of arbitrage opportunities.

Where are these opportunities? Some are obvious, but others may not be readily intuitive to the casual player. I’d like to talk about a couple arbitrage transactions I’ve made of late as well as another idea or two worth thinking about.

International Arbitrage

Remember when the Tempest Medallions all suddenly jumped in price on mtgstocks.com?

The card has always been a popular EDH staple, but suddenly someone decided they should no longer be $6 cards. They attempted to buy out the market which triggered a spike to nearly $15. Fortunately, the price settled back down to around $10 average on TCG Player.

In other regions this spike never really existed, or if it did the market recovered much more quickly. Consider Magic Card Market, the European equivalent to TCG Player. On that site, copies can be readily purchased in the 4-5 euro range, which is roughly equivalent to $6. There are dozens of copies on that site that are cheaper than TCG’s. Clearly there is an opportunity to buy copies at a cheaper price in Europe to sell for profit here in the U.S.

The Barrier: Shipping costs. It’s too cost prohibitive nowadays to ship cards internationally when margins are this thin. In order for this to work, a massive purchase would be required. This involves risk with international shipping, customs, and fees. Currency conversion is also an issue.

The best way to overcome these barriers is to make purchases while traveling internationally for some other purpose. Otherwise it’s extremely difficult to make this worthwhile.

But I often wonder if our community could ever get together and break down these barriers? Couldn’t we have a forum where people posted their international travel plans? Perhaps with a sufficiently large purchase, the community could make this arbitrage worthwhile.

Foreign Language Arbitrage

Many people argue that Japanese and Korean foils are the way to go when “pimping” out a deck. But Japanese and Korean foil copies of Eternal playable cards can be very difficult to find and therefore very expensive. There’s a reason why the sweetest Japanese foils I’ve ever found came from Asia… they’re obviously more common there.

In fact, often times I find sellers in Singapore, Japan, and Korea naturally selling Japanese and Korean foils for extreme profits. While these sellers are slowly overcoming the inefficiency that has led to this arbitrage opportunity, the market hasn’t fully equilibrated yet.

Even German copies of older cards carry a premium here. Recently I traveled to Germany for work. While there I acquired two German Lion's Eye Diamonds at no premium to English versions.

Upon returning to the US I managed to trade one and sell the other for roughly 20% premium due to their scarcity in this region of the world.

One interesting idea I have is to exploit these discrepancies somehow with Russian foil cards. These have gotten a lot of attention lately, and I am beginning to wonder if Russian foil cards are even rarer than their Asian counterparts.

Surely someone in Russia could have easier access to Russian foils. With Russian foil premiums being so substantial on some key cards (e.g. Jace, the Mind Sculptor), there must be a chance to conduct arbitrage here. All it takes is an active QS member in Russia, perhaps…

The Barrier: International shipping and currency conversion fees are again the main barriers. Finding selling outlets for obscure foreign cards can also be difficult--it took me weeks to find people interested in my German LED’s. But the opportunities exist and a concerted effort put together by our community could help us overcome barriers.

Intra-country Opportunity: High Buy Lists

Currently I am enrolled in eBay’s “eBay Bucks” program. It’s a nice way eBay encourages buyers on their site. They basically give you 2% cash back on all your purchases, payable as a gift certificate to buy more stuff on eBay. Genius, right? If you’re not enrolled, perhaps you could send eBay a message and ask how you can enroll--I was “selected” to participate by eBay so I don’t know if this program is open to the public yet.

Getting eBay certificates is nice, but getting cash would be sweeter. If only there was a way to convert eBay Bucks into real cash…well, I found one easy way: arbitrage!

I purchased the following with my eBay Bucks:

  • 1 Foil Ichorid and 1 nonfoil Ichorid (Torment) - $29.07
  • 1 Foil Angel of Retribution (Torment) - $6.23
  • 1 Foil Old Fogey (Unhinged) - $11.28
  • 1 Foil Flame Rift (Nemesis) - $14.99

How did this random assortment of cards help me to convert my eBay Bucks to cash using arbitrage? By selling to ABU Games’ Buy List, that’s how! Here’s my order (ignore the other sales I made):

I spent $61.57 to make my purchase on eBay. Selling these identical cards to ABU games, I received $74.52. Subtract 2.9% and $0.30 for PayPal fees, $1.69 for shipping, and $0.18 for the bubble mailer (I buy in bulk) and I was left with $70.19. This means I used arbitrage not only to convert my eBay Bucks to cash but also gaining over $8 in profit in the process. Plus don’t forget I made another $1.22 in eBay Bucks from spending my eBay Bucks!

The Barrier: It takes time to scan ABU’s Hot List, search for obscure foils on eBay, make purchases, submit a buy list order, and mail the cards. Plus there’s always the risk that ABU acquires the cards they need from someone else while you’re waiting for yours to arrive in the mail.

There are still a handful of foils on eBay under ABU’s buy prices. Check out some eBay listings for Flame Rift:

The opportunity for profit is there. Some vendors like ABU Games have decided they’d rather pay a little more for some cards they desperately need than take the time to surf the web and find cheaper copies themselves. This leads to exploitable arbitrage opportunity.

Profit is Profit, But Remember…

Making profit is always nice, but remember that making profit through arbitrage takes a lot of time and planning. In my examples, I managed to combine my arbitrage with another opportunity so that the time investment was worthwhile.

But I can’t advocate sitting down and sifting through every vendor’s hot list in hopes copies can be found cheaper online. That effort is great and return is marginal.

Perhaps a unified effort from our community could help overcome this somehow. I’m eager to hear if anyone has some examples of how they found a way to exploit arbitrage in an efficient way. I know the opportunities are plentiful, and it’s just a matter of finding the best way to exploit them!

…

Sigbits – Arbitrage Opportunities

Sometimes a vendor with a high buy price can’t find the cards they need, while a seller doesn’t know about this higher buy price. These are my favorite arbitrage opportunities because they represent easy money. Here are some ideas.

  • Unhinged foils are good for this because of their obscurity. Many don’t realize how valuable these can be, and some vendors have a difficult time maintaining stock. I recently picked up an EX Foil Who // What // When // Where // Why for $25. ABU is paying $36 for NM copies and $29 for EX copies. Since the risk of someone suddenly selling a set of these to ABU is very low, my acquisition provides an easy opportunity for arbitrage profit.
  • Other obscure foils are also solid targets, especially form older sets. These are so rare that dealers have to offer higher buy prices to actually maintain a small stock. This leads to randomly high buy prices like these. Good luck finding a Foil Foil on eBay though. I have no idea how to search for this card exclusively without finding every single Prophecy foil for sale.

  • Older Promo cards are also solid pickups. Got an oversized Baron Sengir? ABU Games will pay you nearly $20 for it. How about a Hobby Japan Krovikan Vampire? That’s an easy $27 if you can find one. Not all obscure cards on vendors’ buy lists will be easy to find, but there are often enough out there that someone somewhere will sell you one for less, simply because they don’t know where to look. This imperfect information leads to market inefficiency and allows you to make risk-free profit.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Constructing a Magic Mutual Fund

Posted on by mathieu malecot

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Here I endeavor to describe the ideal MtG Mutual Fund. I consider mutual funds to be a poor investment when they consist of  too many individual stocks.  This means an increase in transaction costs and tax liabilities as positions are added and subtracted. Add to that a diminishing benefit to diversification and at some point (around 20 stocks*) it becomes very hard to justify having added value to a portfolio with the addition of a new position.

Financial advisers often tout diversification without explaining that market risk is not proportionally reduced as positions are added. They make money when they set your money in motion and buying funds of funds, or at least a fund consisting of hundreds of individual positions does a good job of bringing home revenue. Further more it mitigates THEIR risk. They will likely meet or slightly underperform the market and as they are just putting you in the care of another manager they can absolve themselves of much responsibility. My rule of thumb is that the more they pound the table for diversification the more likely they are pleading ignorance: " wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing"- Warren Buffett

So why am I making an MtG Mutual Fund? Because I have positive expectations and knowledge. I know what cards are being played and in what formats. I also expect to be right about the future price of those cards more than half of the time; simple facts that put me in the enviable position of wanting to bet often. Earning just 1% on my purchases and reinvesting the gains will mean 69.3 transactions to double my investment. Its a lot easier to sell 69 cheeseburgers than it is to sell 69 steaks, so even if I only manage a paltry 1% ROI, I will make up for that with volume. Hence I'm looking for cheap cards that see tons of play (assuming play will help me maintain necessary volume) and will be creating a nano cap mutual fund.

Another reason to hedge Magic investments in a mutual fund-like fashion is to acknowledge some inherent risk in the market. Acquiring cards for profit is a gamble and should be treated as one. Although I do expect to win more than I lose, making more bets with the same amount of dollars mitigates my chances for total loss. Take the famous example that follows two simple rules: 1) at all times the players bet 1% of their bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar, 2) unless a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then they bet as much as needed to get that $1,000,000.

$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

  • Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
  • Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
  • Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
  • Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
  • Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

That example is used to disprove the claims of betting systems by expressing how even the slightest advantage can, over time, lead to serious returns.

Applying the Theory

Our MtG Nano Cap Mutual Fund takes the traditional pitfalls of mutual funds and turns them on their head. Increasing transactions help us press our slight advantage to greater returns and additional cards (replacing stocks here) added give us the means though which to place another bet on ourselves.

To copy the above $100 bankroll, we'll need to find a hundred one dollar bets. That's a tricky proposition, so I'll consider cards up to 5% of that bankroll - getting me to at least 20 positions or bets. Maybe now, then, is the time for some actual picks?

Making the Picks

Copies of the Modern Masters foil Empty the Warrens can be had for around $2 shipped. With new art, adding 2 foil copies along side a regular version looks like a decent play considering uglier Time Spiral foils command a $6 price tag. Ebay has MM pricing above the TCG $2 ask.

Gitaxian Probe foils are an option, as single New Phyrexia copies are available for under $5. I actually prefer regular copies, as buying one on TCG is hard at less than $1 but getting five for $3.50 is possible.

Delver of Secrets is good enough for every format, and you can add eight copies for just $4.16.

Six copies of Tragic Slip for $4.67 looks less exciting but is probably good enough to merit a spot.

Modern Masters also gave Grapeshot a facelift and with MM foils available for around $2.50 shipped, you are looking at a greater than 50% discount to similar Time Spiral versions. A nice addition to the fund.

Along similar lines, both Manamorphose and Trygon Predator have new art in MM. The Predator isn't available for less than $5 shipped but its $6.47 price tag is 40% the cost of played Dissension foils.

Two Manamorphose foils from Modern Masters would run $9.69, or ninety-nine cents more than a single foil copy from Shadowmoor. Seems like a good pick, even at two times the exposure.

$4.44 buys one NM copy of City of Brass MM edition. Again, a play on new art that has little downside. Other versions in the same condition all fetch at least $4.06.

Knight of the Reliquary for $4.89 (MM) or $4.99 (Conflux). Pick one and you've got a card playable in Legacy and Modern with EDH appeal.

Another card that receives double weighting to get cost per under $5: Hinterland Harbor. With two copies available for $9.97, and no dual lands in M14, this Innistrad G/U fixer has some legs.

Entreat the Angels for $5.35 looks like another solid pick up, but here is a card that will likely drop enough during rotation to merit waiting. I love this card at $3.50 and think adding it to a watch list makes sense.

Going slightly underweight and picking up two copies of Sire of Insanity for $2.49 gives exposure to a very powerful 6-drop that should pick up momentum when we roll into Theros.

Armada Wurm sure is an ugly card, but a sub $3 mythic that puts 10 power on the board is worthy of an underweight position.

Supreme Verdict is another Return to Ravnica gem and adding THE uncounterable sweeper for $4.40 seems like a no-brainer.

Gatecrash offers a planeswallker for less than $4.20. Gideon, Champion of Justice looks more playable than Vraska the Unseen but is about $2.50 cheaper...

I'm not sure how playable Duskmantle Seer will ever be in Standard, but picking up 2 copies for $5 is probably cheap enough for a bit of a gamble considering Seer's mythic status.

Loxodon Smiter is an efficient beater available for just $3.93 shipped. Playing well versus Sire of Insanity suggests in could continue to have some legs in Standard.

Dreadbore is $3.15 and that makes it worth a look. Removal at sorcery speed isn't great, but removing a Planeswalker for 2cc has to be worth $4, no?

Adding it All Up

Buying that list would be close to $100, and making up the difference is as easy as finding a deal on Boros Charms. Because we're after turnover and our threshold for gains is so low, trading will be a very valuable tool in increasing the value of the fund. Trading off the Duskmantle Seers for $6 of value will be easier than selling them for the same price but it still would represent a 20% ROI.

Notice screening for price (as dictated by % of bankroll) and understanding volume will be more important than transaction cost means we can add playable commons, cheap mythics, niche uncommons and more without worrying too much about any individual pick. An interesting side effect to maintaining this kind of portfolio is being the only person in the room with Tragic Slips when the local shop has sold out. Not a bad place to be!

 

Insider: The Return of Cube and ROE

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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Cube draft returns next week to MTGO and will be awarding Rise of Eldrazi (ROE) booster packs. Coincident with Cube drafting, Triple ROE draft queues will be available so that players can use their prizes.

Generally a period of Cube drafting is a good time to pick up out-of-print staples that are coming onto the market. However, diving into recent history might give us a clearer perspective on how to approach buying and selling cards during Cube.

ZZW Queues

ZZW was awarded for Cube just prior to the release of Gatecrash. Scalding Tarn and Lotus Cobra both fell in price well into the release period, but Lotus Cobra only fully bottomed out months later at the end of June. Scalding Tarn dipped along with every other card from ZZW, but as a Modern staple, it has bounced back substantially in recent weeks, reaching an all time high of 24 tix.

The presence of a high value cycle such as the fetch lands seemed to encourage a lot of drafting. So much that a fringe Modern playable mythic such as Lotus Cobra has taken months to bottom out and is only now showing signs of recovery. In hindsight, the fetch lands were a tremendous buying opportunity, but more fringe cards should have been sold and avoided.

The question for speculators is whether RRR queues are going to be similar to the ZZW queues and tank the value of non-staple mythics and rares.

The Hypothesis

Two factors matter the most in the popularity of an out-of-print draft queue, playability and the expected value of the cards opened. Zendikar-Zendikar-Worldwake (ZZW) and triple Rise of the Eldrazi (RRR) were both quite popular draft formats that had strong interest. Playability is not something that is easily measured, so let's assume that playability will not make the difference in comparing ZZW with RRR.

Holding playability constant, repeat drafting relies on the value of cards drafted. The winner of a 4-3-2-2 draft definitely has enough to continue to draft at no extra cost, but the finalist could conceivably fail to make enough value from their drafted cards to scrounge up 2 tix for the next draft. The 3rd through 8th place finishers will definitely need to crack some value to continue to draft.

If a set doesn't have a lot of value, there won't be a lot of repeat drafts as drafters quickly use up their available tix. In this case, I'll take the sum of the historical average values of the mythic and regular rares cracked in a ZZW draft, and compare that with the sum of the average values of the mythic and regular rares cracked in a RRR draft today. This comparison should give us a feel for the relative value of the two draft formats.

The hypothesis in this case is that the value in ZZW was much higher, and thus encouraged more extra drafting than RRR will. Testing this hypothesis will give us a guide for speculating on ROE rares.

To test the hypothesis, I will add up the average value of the rares and mythic rares for 24 packs. On average we should expect three mythics per draft (one in eight boosters) and 21 rares.

To calculate the average mythic for ZZW, I'll take historical values from January 31st, 2013 of every mythic and rare over 1 ticket and round it to the nearest ticket. Mythics and rares less than 1 ticket will be valued at zero. For RRR, I'll do the same using prices from today. (Prices courtesy of MTGGoldfish.com, which tracks prices from MTGOTraders.com.)

Mythic Comparison

ROE Mythics Price ZEN Mythics Price WWK Mythics Price
All Is Dust 12 Chandra Ablaze 2 Abyssal Persecutor 3
Cast Through Time 0 Eldrazi Monument 4 Admonition Angel 1
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn 13 Eternity Vessel 0 Avenger of Zendikar 6
Gideon Jura 4 Felidar Sovereign 5 Comet Storm 0
Hellcarver Demon 0 Iona, Shield of Emeria 17 Dragonmaster Outcast 3
Kargan Dragonlord 1 Kalitas, Bloodchief of… 7 Eye of Ugin 9
Khalni Hydra 2 Lorthos, the Tidemaker 0 Jace, the Mind Sculptor 68
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth 12 Lotus Cobra 15 Novablast Wurm 0
Lighthouse Chronologist 3 Mindbreak Trap 17 Omnath, Locus of Mana 8
Linvala, Keeper of Silence 20 Nissa Revane 4 Wrexial, the Risen Deep 0
Nirkana Revenant 3 Ob Nixilis 2
Sarkhan the Mad 1 Obsidian Fireheart 1
Transcendent Master 2 Rampaging Baloths 1
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre 14 Sorin Markov 3
Vengevine 13 Warren Instigator 8
ROE Average 6.7 ZEN Average 5.7 WWK Average 9.8
3x mythics 20.0 2x mythics 11.5 1x mythic 9.8

 

Total value from mythics (RRR) 20.0 Total Value from mythics (ZZW) 21.3

 

Overall, the mythic rare slot from the average RRR draft is quite close to the average ZZW draft. The presence of Jace, the Mind Sculptor in WWK is balanced out by a number of worthless mythics, while ROE has a much higher density of mythics in the 10+ ticket range compared to either ZEN or WWK.

Rare Comparison

ROE Rares Price ZEN Rares Price WWK Rares Price
Coralhelm Commander 1 Arid Mesa 8 Basilisk Collar 1
Kor Spiritdancer 1 Bloodghast 3 Celestial Colonnade 4
Splinter Twin 5 Goblin Guide 2 Creeping Tar Pit 2
Marsh Flats 5 Joraga Warcaller 1
Misty Rainforest 9 Raging Ravine 1
Scalding Tarn 11 Stoneforge Mystic 2
Verdant Catacombs 6
ROE Average 0.1 ZEN Average 0.8 WWK Average 0.31
21x rares 2.8 14x rares 11.6 7x rares 2.2

 

Total value from rares (RRR): 2.8 Total Value from rares (ZZW): 13.8

 

On the other hand, for rares from ZZW, you have two packs of the fetch lands which tilts the scales heavily in favor of ZZW. The rare slot for RRR pretty much begins and ends with Splinter Twin. With so few money rares, RRR does not compare favorably to ZZW in terms of value for drafters.

Adding It All Up

Format Total Value (1 Draft)
RRR 22.8
ZZW 35.1

 

In total, the value of cards cracked in a given eight-man draft at the outset of ZZW queues was about 35 tix. If a draft is usually about 13 tix, that means that out of every ZZW draft, about 2.7 players got enough value in cards to draft again.

As it stands right now, RRR will only contribute about 23 tix in value from the cards in a draft, meaning about 1.8 players on average will crack enough value to be able to draft again, based solely on the cards that they draft.

If we think about how many extra drafts this value could turn into, we might consider the following. Suppose that initially there is enough interest to fire 100 drafts. Then players will only draft if they can sell their cards for enough tix to draft again. The next round of drafts is an echo of the initial drafts. The ZZW echo is bigger than the RRR echo because of the extra value found there, mostly in the fetch lands.

Each echo will be smaller than the last. Eventually drafting dies out because players have run out of tix in order to draft. Note, this ignores pack prizes and fluctuating value of the cards. The chart below summarizes the results of this idea.

Draft Wave RRR ZZW
Initial 100 100
1st Echo 22 34
2nd Echo 5 11
3rd Echo 1 4
4th Echo 0 1
Total Extra Drafts 28 50

 

This projection suggests that, for every 100 initial drafts, the extra value in ZZW would result in 22 additional drafts compared to RRR. Clearly we should expect fewer RRR drafts to fire than ZZW. This means price drops on Modern staples and playables will be smaller, and prices will recover faster.

Course of Action

For the average player, the normal response to out-of-print draft queues appearing on MTGO is to panic-sell any card from the given sets worth a few tix. The fear is that drafters will flood the market with cards, so it's better to sell out and rebuy after the queues finish up.

In the case of ZZW, this definitely turned out to be true for non-staples. If you had sold your Lotus Cobras and Ionas, you could have bought them again at a much lower price a few months down the road.

In light of the expectation that ROE queues will not flood the market for non-staples as much as the ZZW queues did, then any panic selling over the coming week should be seen as a short-term buying opportunity.

Target the valuable mythics from ROE that show up in Modern. Ulamog, Linvala, Emrakul, All Is Dust and Vengevine should be the mythic targets, and for the rares it basically begins and ends with Splinter Twin.

If players panic-sell these over the coming ten days, the expected price drop should be observable. With a relatively low increase in supply as a result of RRR draft queues, this will be a prime week to pick up Modern staples and other playables from ROE.

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and watching in the market in the last week.

Selling:

  • GTC Boosters are now the most expensive of the RTR block boosters, and the next few weeks should be the best near-term opportunity to sell these. I have started the process of unwinding this position.

Buying:

  • Advent of the Wurm is a card that should be a staple in Fall Standard. Even if mana bases are less robust than now, the G/W colour combination will feature the excellent curve of Elvish Mystic, Voice of Resurgence, Loxodon Smiter into Advent of the Wurm. 2.5+ tix is too much, but around 2 tix or less is just fine.
  • When I go to sell some GTC boosters to Goatbots, I'll often just load up 6 each of RTR and DGM before topping up the rest on tix. I expect RTR and DGM to dip in the next couple of weeks with Cube and then M14 release events.

Watching:

  • Although Geist of Saint Traft has been quite stable in price, the long slide of Restoration Angel and Thragtusk was a nasty shock. It looks like they have finally stabilized and I will be unwinding my positions in all of these cards over the next couple of weeks. The last of the online Standard PTQs run later this month. After that, they should come under continued selling pressure as Fall rotation draws closer.
  • ROE mythics and rares played in Modern.

Insider: M14 Prerelease Primer

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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Today's article could have been alternatively titled “When AutoRecover doesn’t actually recover documents.”

As my computer ate my first attempt at this article, today you get my thoughts a little more concise and abridged than usual. And that works out, since it’s Prerelease Time!

My prerelease primers, or set reviews, differ a little from some others out there. For starters, while I’ll offer my thoughts on the future of cards, this is also a guide for how I’ll be trading this weekend.

Also, here’s the usual disclaimer:

For those of you not familiar with how I do set reviews, I start by giving you all a little credit. I don’t go card-by-card through the entire set and waste thousands of words telling you that obviously bulk rares are, in fact, bulk rares. Instead, I try to hit on the cards drawing the most hype as well as those I feel like you need to have on your radar for one reason or another, whether they be sleepers, overpriced, or so forth.

If you want to hear some financial thoughts besides mine on the new set, make sure to check out the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery when it comes out on Friday at GatheringMagic.com.

So let’s dig in.

Mythics

Baneslayer Angel this is not. While the ability is cool and this is a bit of a roadblock for aggressive decks, it’s nowhere near the $25 it’s preselling for unless there’s some cheap, incidental lifegain stuff to break it, which I don’t expect.

I think this is a cool design, and probably does have a place in a few decks, though certainly as a four-of.

The way I see this being used is in a ramp deck full of stuff bigger than six mana. That way, ramping into this with a huge monster in hand is good, and even has the backup plan of ramping into said big guys anyway. In addition, casting this and plussing it helps you find said huge monsters.

That’s pretty much the only shell I see for it, and that seems pretty narrow. With that said, $25 seems way too high, and $10-15 more likely.

This seems like one of the best hydras we’ve ever seen. While it’s certainly not groundbreaking, it does kill in two swings.

More importantly, imagine curving Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch into this. That allows you to swing for 8 immediately on the turn your hydra comes down and also pumps your other unleashed dudes.

I’m not sure if curving a four-mana guy into a five-mana guy is good enough since it slows down your aggro deck, but I do know it isn’t $30 good enough. This thing will likely halve in price by rotation, and we’ll re-evaluate then.

Though this really belongs in a later section, I’ll include it now. I don’t like this at the $8 preorder, but I do like stocking up when it eventually bottoms out. While it’s not exactly an all-star must-include in EDH, it is playable there, and most importantly is a mythic.

A casual card if anything. Grab cheap foils.

Rares

SLIVERS!

I don’t want to address them individually because they’re likely to be an all-or-nothing deal. This many new and powerful slivers could reignite a Modern deck or possibly even a quirky Standard deck.

If that’s true, the played cards will move as a whole. We know the slivers will retain some long-term value due to being slivers, but if that’s all there is, just wait for them to bottom out and then pick them up. On the other hand, if this deck is even close to Standard-playable, FNM players will be all over it, so be prepared to make a move if that happens.

The power level on this is nice but not overwhelming. As such, unless B/R decks become huge in the format it won’t hold its $6 pricetag. But even narrow sideboard cards like Rhox Faithmender can hold $5 if they remain in high demand, which is something to keep in mind if this becomes too cheap.

I don’t hate this card at $3. The risk at that price is pretty low, and it certainly seems like a powerful tool in Naya decks. The control decks have been partial to Blind Obedience, and now you get one that Bears them for two as well. I like grabbing this to prepare for a possible jump, though $5-7 or so seems like the ceiling here.

I would not be surprised if this saw some play, since it’s powerful and usually a two-for-one against the relevant decks. That said, I don’t see much upside at $6.

My pick for the most-overhyped card in the set. We all remember Mutavault fondly, but that was in a time when tribal decks were all the rage and decks weren’t as color-intensive.

How in the world do Naya decks fit many of these in? How do three (or more)-color control decks fit it? We don’t know for sure about post-rotation, but we can assume the mana certainly won’t be much better than it is now, since M14 doesn’t even have a cycle of duals. Unless people move to less color-intensive decks I see Mutavault dropping to under $10 from $15 now, at which point I suggest stocking up on them for sure.

I know people are talking about this, but they’re mostly wrong. This is not a $6 card.

This will surely see a fair amount of play. I think it could drop to $10 or so in the next two months, but as we near Modern season I think this fluctuates between $14 and 20 or so from there. We’ll also see how much this sees play in Modern and how much that affects its price moving forward.

MERFOLK.

I think this will likely be a big part of the Hexproof deck, and actually improves it a bit. I think it could spike above the $6 it is now, but probably won’t stay that high. Post-rotation, I’m not sure if there are enough pieces for the deck to survive, and this could tank pretty hard if not.

Sorry, I was too excited the first time, and had to take a step back.

Let’s try again.

MERF…

In case you didn’t know, I love Merfolk. I’ve won several thousand dollars playing the deck and I’m currently trying to foil mine out.

So about our newest two-drop. I think he’s insane in the Modern builds and significantly less exciting in Legacy. At $3 I actually think there’s a little upside, though perhaps not much if he doesn’t also catch on in Standard.

This will likely never be bulk, though. Even Coralhelm Commander, which has been cut from many Fish builds, is still worth several dollars, and this will fall in the same vein.

Casual Cards

I wanted to talk about all these at once. Some people are decrying the casual reprints Wizards seems to be doing regularly these days, but I’m not quite so gloom-and-doom. Sure it sucks that these formerly-valuable cards are worth less now, but it also means you can find more of them in binders now.

These will tank, but casual players will still want them. Just wait two months or so for them to bottom out, then begin stocking up again, same as you should be doing with Akroma's Memorial and the like from last year.

Until Later

Anyway, that about covers us for this week. Let me know what you think in the comments, and enjoy your prerelease this weekend!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Drafter’s Dilemma – What Do I Do With All These Cards? Part 2

Posted on by Danny Brown

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Last time, we went through some of my strategies for maximizing the monetary value of the cards left over after a Draft, as well as my sorting system. Today, we’ll be discussing what I actually do to monetize my sorted cards. Let’s dive right in.

The Trade Binder

I’m not as prolific as some traders, so I carry only a single trade binder. The cards inside are split into two sections: Standard in the front half, non-Standard in the back. Each of these sections are organized by color in WUBRG order, followed by multicolor cards, artifacts, and lands. This is an intuitive order for people that are looking for cards in specific colors, as well as for me when I need to access cards quickly.

Since I don’t play a lot of Constructed, my trades are almost always for speculative purposes.  At any one time, I tend to target 10-20 specific cards of which I can amass a sizeable number (for me, 10-30 copies) before an anticipated price spike. Lately, I’ve been focusing on shock lands, undervalued Return to Ravnica block mythics, and low-priced Modern staples like Birthing Pod. Since my binder doesn’t see a ton of turnover, I tend to target long-term holds rather than short-term flips.

If I notice a card has been in my trade binder for some time without anyone expressing interest, I will usually try to sell the card. In my local community, we have a Facebook group for discussion of spoilers, decks, upcoming events, and other Magic topics. If your community doesn’t have one of these groups set up, I highly recommend spearheading such a creation. It’s a great social outlet, but it’s also an invaluable tool for financiers. Why?

  • It’s a forum to discuss buying and selling cards without violating the no-cash-transactions-between-customers policy that exists in almost every LGS.
  • You can sell cards around eBay prices but avoid fees, shipping times, and potentially shady buyers.
  • It facilitates trades with players who don’t come out to the LGS very often.
  • If you’re looking for one specific card, it’s often easier to put out a Facebook alert than to dig through everyone’s trade binder at FNM.

Of course, if no one has traded for the card at FNM, then it won’t always sell in my community. If that’s the case, I determine whether eBay or buylisting to my LGS is the best move. In my experience, eBay offers a better return for higher value cards and playsets. For low-end cards and bulk, selling to my LGS has been the most time-effective way and I have not lost too much in value, either.

The Speculation Box

I have a box in which I keep cards that I intend to sell or trade someday, but that I am not willing to trade today. It always stays at home. This box has two types of cards: 1) cards that already have value but that I expect to gain more (e.g. Birthing Pod, Steam Vents, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, etc.), and 2) cards that are currently around bulk but that I expect to rise above that level, often due to casual demand after the set rotates (e.g. Breaking // Entering, Mind Grind, Thespian's Stage, etc.).  I go through this box every few weeks and check prices as necessary. Anything that has seen a spike to the point where I am willing to trade it goes into the trade binder.

The Bulk Rares Box

A couple years ago, Sam Glitch wrote an article for QS called, “The real-life MTGO bot – how I use a bulk box to double my collection automatically.” I recently started using his method and I’ve managed to net 20-30 bulk rares in the last several weeks. It’s been especially useful to have around, however, when I’m a dollar or two off in a trade. It’s easy to hand it to someone and say, “Take any X cards in this box to make up the difference.” People like choices, even if none of the choices are particularly good. In addition to bulk rares, I also put bulk foil uncommons, commons, and basic lands into the box. I don’t want these types of things in my trade binder but I like to have them available for when I need them. This has been a handy system, so thanks to Sam and QS.

Bulk Commons and Uncommons

It pains me to sell bulk commons and uncommons at $5 per 1000, so I’ve found a couple different ways to get additional value from them all. The first is eBay lots. Before reading about Sam’s MTGO-bot box, this was my primary way to out bulk rares. I list several lots of 100-200 commons, 50 uncommons, and a flexible number of rares.  In the description for these auctions, I always state that this is a great way for beginning players to get some cards. I don’t advertise these as re-packs, but more along the lines of the Deckbuilder’s Toolkits that WotC has released a couple times. The final bid is always higher when I scale the number of rares. I choose a flat number to start, but then include one additional rare per dollar spent on the winning bid, rounded up (for example, ten rares no matter what, plus 14 additional rares for a winning bid of $13.01).  As a seller, these offer a lot of buck for your bang—you’re getting way more than a penny per common and well above a quarter for bulk rares (before shipping and fees). I almost always throw in additional goodies (cards or random swag), and I have never had a complaint.

There are downsides to this system, however, which have caused me to not run any of these in a while. Obviously, we have shipping and fees. eBay fees have been well discussed on this site. They’re not a deal-breaker, but they definitely shave our profits. Shipping is worse, though, as it can cost $5-10 to ship a small box full of bulk. I have found the most efficient (and customer pleasing) way to ship is the small USPS Priority Shipping box, which costs $5 to ship and holds 200-250 cards. After shipping and eBay fees, we only end up with about $8 for a $15 sale, but that’s still a very good rate for 250 bulk cards.

The other problem, and the main reason I moved away from this method, is that I couldn’t keep up with the necessary rares. As a drafter, most of my leftovers are commons and uncommons, but I found these eBay lots were draining my bulk rare pile but still leaving me with too many lower-rarity cards. This type of lot sells for basically nothing when no rares are included, so I’ve largely abandoned the practice. However, if you find yourself with a lot of bulk rares of which you’d like to rid yourself, you can get great returns this way.

In my experience, Craigslist has been the fastest and most profitable tool for outing bulk. Lately, I’ve been putting together long boxes filled with 20-30 of each basic land, 200 uncommons, and enough commons to fill out the rest. I list these on Craigslist as a great buy for new players. I don’t try to misrepresent what these are—if asked I’ll always say they are Draft leftovers and that there won’t be a lot of Standard playables left. This has not deterred much interest from casual players, and I’ve gotten as high as $15 for 1000 bulk cards including no rares. People are stoked to get so many cards for so little, and I am thrilled to get that much for bulk.

Turning a Profit

I don’t always turn a profit on my Drafts. Yes, there are weeks when I win the Draft with $30 worth of cards, but there are also weeks when I open nothing of value and lose in the first round.  Stretching bad cards into a few bucks can help mitigate losing weeks and help make winning weeks more profitable.

I know from personal experience that it is absolutely possible to build a collection through Draft. If you know card values and can win the occasional event, it’s possible to build a deck for less than the cost of the singles in it. But even if you end up paying full price for the deck, you still get to Draft a bunch of times before reaching that point. Sure, you’re not going to build the deck as fast as just buying the cards, but you’ll get to play a whole lot of Magic along the way.

For the QS Insider looking to make as much profit as possible, Draft probably isn’t the way to go. But for someone looking to play Magic inexpensively while steadily growing a collection into something valuable, Draft is fantastic. You can play once a week during a year for less than the cost of many Standard decks, and you end up with 156 packs worth of cards when the year ends. If you win a decent amount and make intelligent trades, it’s possible to play for free, all while building a collection.

Draft is my favorite format, and I am willing to pay for the experience. But as I’ve refined the methods I’ve described here, it’s become less and less expensive. Do you have any tips or tricks for cutting down on the costs of your own Drafts? Please share them in the comments below!

 

Magic 2014 Top Ten

Posted on by Mike Lanigan

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Hello everyone. I'm excited as always to bring you the top ten constructed cards from the newest addition to our wonderful game. M14 certainly brings great cards into the mix of playablity, but how much of an impact will it really have? Which cards will find a home? Which cards will create decks on their own? This week, I'll answer these questions plus many more. Let's get started!

Lacking for Real Estate

M14 hits the metagame at a different angle than most core sets in the past have. The most important aspect of this set is the lack of mana fixing. With no cycle of lands to help our mana bases, how much of an impact will that have on Standard? The quick answer is we don't know.

Every year since I've been playing, the core set gave us access to lands to help make our decks more consistent. There have been a few different iterations over the years. I have played with the pain land cycle from Ice Age and Apocalypse. We all have used the M10 lands, reprinted over the last four years, to great effect, culminating by pairing them with the Ravnica duals for amazing mana. There was even a little while where all we had was City of Brass to help a couple decks.

What will Standard be like without tons of dual lands to help your deck flow consistently? Honestly I have no clue. Since this is a new concept, it is something we will have to keep a close watch on.

My initial impression is that it will be a good thing for the game. If I had to compare this lack of lands to something, I would foresee it being similar to when the Vivid lands rotated out of Standard. At that time, we went from casting Cryptic Command, Cloudthresher, and Cruel Ultimatum in the same deck, to something that was actually a believable deck again.

While decks in Standard aren't as crazy as during Lorwyn block, we have gotten used to the fact that we can play three colors with relative ease. In fact, often it's actually better to play three colors instead of two right now because of how many dual lands you have access to.

In Theros we are supposed to have access to some dual lands, though we don't know which ones, so the mana will be back to a much more normal level. This change actually excites me quite a bit because typically lower-powered formats are more fun. Think about decks in Standard if you actually had to pick only two colors. If that were the case, we would actually have a metagame instead of players just jamming whatever cards they wanted to play all in the same deck. For example, what if Jund had to play either as GB or as RB? I think that would be more interesting. Either way, Standard will be impacted by the lack of core set duals, hopefully in a positive way.

Let's see that Top 10!

10. Slivers

It was a tough decision, but in the end, none of the slivers stood out as a top 10 card. That's the point though right? None of them are good on their own, but when you play them together, they become an army, each with tons of abilities.

These latest additions to the sliver crew (bad art aside) are pushed in terms of power level. The only thing holding them back is their small numbers. There are fourteen sliver cards plus Hive Stirrings and Mutavault.

Although I have no idea if slivers will be actually good, I do know players will battle with them. This creature type is one of the most popular and there is a whole new group of players waiting eagerly to try this tribe out. The time between now and when Theros comes out seems like the best time for the deck because we still have all the dual lands plus Cavern of Souls.

My inclination would be that the deck wants to be green, red, and a third color because those colors are where the most powerful and aggressive cards are located. White is a logical third choice, but with slivers there are many options for how to build your deck. Good luck brewing slivers!

9. Witchstalker

The reason this wolf (I definitely thought it was a beast, but apparently not) is on the list for one obvious reason. It immediately goes into the Bant Hexproof deck.

This is the threat that deck has been missing. Not only do you now have a critical density of hexproof creatures, but you also gain a power similar to Voice of Resurgence. Making your opponent play their spells on their turn is a game-changing effect, especially for an "all-in" type deck like Bant Hexproof.

You could also play Gladecover Scout like the Modern version of the deck does, but I'm not sure the Standard enchantments are powerful enough to justify his inclusion. The other creatures in this cycle are also powerful in their own regard. Tidebinder Mage, Fiendslayer Paladin, and Mindsparker may all see play but they seem inappropriate for the current metagame. Look for them to improve once Standard rotates.

8. Lifebane Zombie

The last in the three-drop "hate" cycle for M14, this zombie attacks the format in just the right way. The problem is, what deck does he get played in? BWR Aristocrats maybe, but it doesn't really fit there. Will another spot open up for him or a new deck pop up that will utilize him? That is still uncertain.

His effect is perfect in this meta though. Removing Thragtusk seems particularly potent. His power and toughness are fine, but with only one toughness, he won't get very far through your opponents defenses, be they creatures or removal spells. I'm not sure this Selesnya hater has what it takes to impact Standard, but his ability is definitely powerful.

7. Xathrid Necromancer

This is my personal favorite card from M14. The last time we had a card like this was way back in Onslaught with Rotlung Reanimator. As you can see, these two cards are about as similar as they get. This necromancer is basically a functional reprint as the only thing that was changed was the creature type involved.

With the available card pool and the direction Magic has taken in the last few years, focusing on the human creature type is quite a boon. Even if all the Necromancer does is replace itself upon dying, that is probably good enough, but he doesn't stop there! I think there is something here and I for one will be working with this card to find the best home for him.

6. Chandra, Pyromaster

The Magic community is undecided about the newest addition in the line of mediocre red planeswalkers. Of all past Chandras, I liked Chandra Nalaar the best. In fact, I actually played her with some success during Shards block.

New Chandra seems about as powerful as her original version to me. The fact that she costs four mana helps her case a little, but I would have liked to see how much play she would have seen at three mana. Her plus one ability is not bad, but it's not amazing either. Luckily her starting loyalty is four (five after the immediate plus one that will typically follow), which is decent.

The card drawing ability is not bad either. I don't like that you have to play the card that turn or not at all, but even if it is a bit conditional, card drawing is always good. I imagine her ultimate is largely irrelevant, but it would be fine if you were able to use it.

Her best aspect is that she could fit into many different types of decks. An aggro deck would utilize the Falter effect as well as the card drawing and in addition, a controlling deck would take advantage of the one damage to a creature. Overall, I expect her to see some play but not a ton.

5. Path of Bravery

Previous versions of this effect were almost always two mana. Is three mana is certainly much worse than two (see Doom Blade below), but I'm not sure that is enough to stop this card from seeing play.

The fact that your buffs are conditional makes me pause, but any aggressive white deck, especially on the play, should be in a position to receive the benefits of the card. There are many questions surrounding this card's playability, but increasing the size of your creatures as well as giving them lifelink is a powerful effect. This may be a path to doing nothing though so tread lightly.

M14 does seem to have a trend of cards that don't really have a home currently. Often when this happens, many of these are plants for the next block. When that time comes, I think most of the M14 cards will need to be reevaluated with that context. (Can you tell I'm excited for Theros and a new Standard environment?)

4. Dark Prophecy

If it costs triple black, it must be powerful and this card certainly delivers in the power department. I am having a lot of Dark Prophecys that good M14 cards are going to go homeless for a while though.

What deck could play this? B/R Zombies seems like it would love this card but then again they only have Falkenrath Aristocrat as a sacrifice outlet and that deck isn't even very good anymore. Junk Aristocrats would probably abuse this card a ton but not without drastically altering the mana base to support a triple-black enchantment. That leaves us with the prospect of creating a new deck.

Is it worth it to build a deck around this card? I definitely think the power level is high enough to justify that, but I wouldn't even know where to start. The card is good, but that may not be enough.

3. Scavenging Ooze

Maybe not for Standard, but if we are talking about Modern, this is the most powerful card on the list. It amazes me that this card got printed for Standard. Maybe it is not as powerful without Green Sun's Zenith, but it will definitely see play.

Deathrite Shaman plus Scavenging Ooze is a ton of graveyard hate for Modern. It will certainly impact that format in ways we cannot fathom. Are there things that need to be covered in ooze in Standard? It does seem like another sweet card to help fight Junk Reanimator, but that is a rather obvious conclusion.

Less obvious is again what deck will play it. I've heard players comment that it could go into Jund Midrange. That seems fine by me, but I am wondering if that is the best home. Any green deck could probably play this scavenger in their sideboard though. M14 is filled with so many hate cards that maybe there is a new deck waiting to be built.

2. Garruk, Caller of Beasts

Six mana is a ton, especially for a low starting loyalty, but it will be worth it. As long as your deck is filled with a bunch of creatures, his plus one is as powerful as Jace, the Mind Sculptors zero ability. There I said it.

Of course Jace is better, no planeswalker will ever be better than he is, but the abilities are comparable. Think about how awesome getting a free Lead the Stampede each turn will be! Now that is a powerful effect.

The Caller of Beasts gets a very efficient way to bring his friends to battle with his minus three ability. The creatures' Dramatic Entrance may not be as surprising, but any ability that allows you to cheat huge monsters into play should be carefully examined. For now, I like the interaction of cheating Craterhoof Behemoth into play. For later, I think Theros may have a few huge giants or other mythical monsters we would want to get in play as soon as possible.

1. Mutavault

The most important and best card from M14 is Mutavault! Not only can lots of decks play it (as long as they turn their greed down a notch), but the fact that it is all creature types is hugely relevant.

Jamming this land into a sliver deck is obviously an automatic inclusion. But I guarantee this manland will see tons of play elsewhere, even if no one adopts it until after rotation (although I doubt it will take that long.) When Innistrad block leaves, we can no longer rely on the utility lands that have impacted Standard for two years. The ever-changing creature land is poised to immediately replace them.

Not on the List

Did you notice zero blue cards were mentioned?

First of all, it's been a long time since blue was this weak. If I recall correctly, it was before Worldwake came out and then we had Jace, the Mind Sculptor to make blue mages happy for all of time. Does that mean we will be getting more broken blue cards in Theros? I am doubtful, but certainly better ones than what M14 has to offer.

Sorry blue mages, you don't even get Unsummon or Mana Leak. You will have to settle for Essence Scatter and Disperse (at least for now).

I also want to include Shock in this section, not because of power level, but because it's an important downgrade. Shock has been played in Standard before, but now is not the time for its return. Shock is much worse than Searing Spear for this environment. Even after rotation, I doubt that we will see Shock at the top tables of any event. Paying attention to the available removal is a big part of deckbuilding though, so don't forget that it will be an option for the next year.

Honorable Mentions

Doom Blade: This almost-generic, two-mana removal spell almost made it onto my top ten for the set. Bringing its cost down to two mana from Murder's three is a big deal. Murder saw minimal play despite it being good in most situations based solely on the fact that it cost three mana. Having Doom Blade back is great and certainly a step up.

The reason I cut it from the top ten is because of how resilient the creatures in Standard are right now. So many of the creatures are indestructible, hexproof, or give you another creature when they die that even if Doom Blade cost one mana, it would still not be as good as it should be. Doom Blade will definitely see play, maybe a lot of it, but it won't have as much impact as it normally should because of how hard to kill creatures have become.

Young Pyromancer: This creature seems much better in eternal formats than Standard, but it could see some play. For this card to play a huge role, I think we would need to get some good burn spells in Theros though.

Chandra's Phoenix: This former Standard staple would go well in a deck that also has Young Pyromancer, but a deck like that trying to fight against Thragtusk seems doomed to go up in flames. Maybe this bird will return to the big stage, but now is not that time.

Kalonian Hydra: For a five-mana monster, this creature has certainly built a lot of hype. My opinion is to sell yours and take advantage of the press this guy is getting because it seems unimpressive.

Wolfir Silverheart is much better than this hydra in my opinion and he has seen very little play. Trample helps but not enough. It's more likely you will have a hydra back in your hand or in your graveyard than attacking your opponent.

Ratchet Bomb: This could be an important sideboard card. Keep it in mind when putting decks together.

Haunted Plate Mail: Some have said this could be the finisher in a control deck. That is an overly bold statement. I don't think this plate mail will be haunting anyone anytime soon. Let it rot in a closet and kill your opponent with Aetherling.

Encroaching Wastes: I'd take a Tectonic Edge over an Encroaching Wastes any day. Although it's been a long time since we had a Wasteland impressionist in Standard, this comedian seems unlikely to capture the hearts of players. You can start growing your Encroaching Wastes when you find a way to reduce the sacrifice cost, otherwise just leave them as wastes.

Well there you have it. The top ten is such a fun article to write. I hope you all enjoyed it as well. If you don't agree with my assessment, post in the comments below! What is your top 10? How is it different than mine? Let me know!

Until Next Time,

Unleash the M14 Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

The More Things Change

Posted on by Ryan Overturf

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This Saturday morning I awoke to jam what I was sure was going to be a massively over-crowded Modern Masters MTGO PTQ. I wouldn't have been surprised if the event hit capacity at 1,024, but it ended up being a scant 800 players. My pool was neither exceptional nor worth anywhere near the 45 ticket entry. Adarkar Valkyrie alone could cover neither my deck or the check. I ended up getting savaged by Blinding Beam two of three games in round one and dropping promptly. It was high time for a nap.

Around noon I got a text from Mike Hawthorne asking if I was playing the "Big Legacy" event at the Monster Den. The Big Legacy is a tournament with Legacy staples (generally dual lands) paid as prizes to top finishers (usually top two or four) based on attendance. I couldn't remember the last time I had played the event, but I definitely had nothing better going on. I grabbed RUG Delver and was on my way.

En route to the Den I intended to pick up some lunch but I sort of forgot. Nobody else was too stupid to miss lunch, so I found myself with nobody with whom to order food. It looked like I'd be toughing it out with Chex Mix and Dr. Pepper.

For the record, this is my current RUG list:

"RUG Delver"

spells

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Ponder
4 Brainstorm
4 Stifle
4 Force of Will
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Spell Pierce
3 Daze
1 Dismember
1 Fire/Ice
1 Izzet Charm

land

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
4 Wasteland
3 Tropical Island
3 Volcanic Island

sideboard

3 Tormod's Crypt
2 Hydroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
1 Pyroblast
1 Rough/Tumble
1 Spell Pierce
1 Dismember
3 Submerge
2 Sulfur Elemental

The Izzet Charm has been playing nicely but I'm absolutely locked in on one at this point. In this Deathrite Shaman infested world it is most commonly a Shock, secondarily a Spell Pierce, with looting being the tertiary mode. I considered playing a Thought Scour over the second copy that I had due to a large frequency of games where I Wastelanded myself to get threshold in recent memory, but opted for a Fire/Ice to, again, ensure adequate answers to Deathrite Shamans.

With 24 players (a bit smaller than the MTGO PTQ) the event was to be five rounds with a cut to top 8. Here's how that all went for me:

Round 1 Versus Nic Fit

I say that I played against Nic Fit, but really I played against 3 basic lands, a Bayou, a Sensei's Divining Top, and a Cabal Therapy which hit a Brainstorm. My opponent's Top wasn't good to him and his land light hand didn't come close to working out.

More generally I rather loathe playing against Nic Fit. The matchup is incredibly close and largely boils down to the success of RUG's mana denial plan. It's sort of frustrating when they win because they do so with cards and a strategy which are rather underwhelming against the format at large but that match up pretty well against RUG. Fortunately I didn't have to deal with any of that this go 'round.

Round 2 Versus Joe Kaufmann's BW Cards

Joe's an old school player who can be found casually slinging non-proxy Vintage between rounds. His BW list is a bit out of the ordinary and I really wasn't sure what he was playing when he led on Ancient Den into Sensei's Divining Top. Whatever it was I assumed it wasn't a Brainstorm deck. With Sensei's Divining Top being at least in strong contention for best card in such decks, I went ahead and met it with a Spell Pierce. From there we had some back and forth between my creatures/counters and his discard, Rest in Peace and removal spells which ultimately ended in me aggressively digging for lethal Lightning Bolts.

In game two Joe cast an early Enlightened Tutor for Chains of Mephistopheles. After a refresher course in "What the hell does Chains of Mephistopheles do?" I cast the Brainstorm in my hand and let it resolve despite the Force of Will in my hand. I had pretty good pressure and no other cantrips at this point, and in that position Chains didn't concern me too much. From there I did the standard "kill your Stoneforge Mystic, attack you" line that tends to come up against these type decks and took it down. After the match Joe and I agreed that I probably would have won anyway but that Rest in Peace would've been a stronger tutor target for him.

Round 3 Versus Shardless BUG

I'm of the belief that this matchup is somewhere in the range of a coin toss. I think that my mulligan on the play and my drawing of Stifle the turn after Ancestral Vision came off suspend from my opponent more or less locked me out of game one and some similarly below average draws in game two did me in for this match. Abrupt Decay and Ancestral Vision are no joke when it comes to Tarmogoyf mirrors like this but for the most part I think that the two decks operate on much the same level with BUG being completely weak to RUG's mana denial while RUG is mostly only weak to drawing its cards in the wrong order. I'll admit that this analysis is coming from a pretty biased source though.

Round 4 Versus RUG Cascade

So, Bloodbraid Elf and Shardless Agent are possibly the coolest things that fair decks in Legacy are playing these days, but they're really not all that impressive. RUG Cascade, unlike Shardless BUG, doesn't have good answers to Tarmogoyf, so RUG Delver can easily ignore much of what the deck does while generating theoretical card advantage due to playing fewer lands and fewer creatures which are outclassed by the matchup defining two-drop.

In game one my opponent Bloodbraid Elf -> Shardless Agent -> Ancestral Vision as his cascade chain and I still won rather handily off the fact that Tarmogoyf profitably blocks everything while none of those creatures block Delver of Secrets.

All in all I'd said that RUG Cascade is generally just a worse choice than Shardless BUG for the style of Magic it's trying to play. It has a pile of creatures that don't match up well with played creatures in the format and the cascade mechanic leaves the deck counter light and makes it weak to combo, unlike BUG which has access to discard.

Round 5 ID With Burning Wish Nic Fit

I was paired up and my breakers were like 8 points up on any other 3-1. Hooray for small tournaments.

Quarterfinals Versus MUD

This is the type of deck that makes a lot of RUG players want trash like Ancient Grudge in their sideboard, but I hardly think this is necessary. Lightning Bolt kills Lodestone Golem, Wasteland rocks house against them and Stifle/Dismember deal with Kuldotha Forgemaster pretty well I'd say.

Game one went in my favor without a hitch but game two was only mine due to what I think was a deck-building error on my opponent's part. He drew three Kuldotha Forgemasters and two Cavern of Souls to my zero Wasteland and I only drew Dismember after his second Forgemaster was active, the first succumbing the Lightning Bolt + Izzet Charm. When he activated his Forgemaster while being attacked by Insectile Aberration I feared a Platinum Emperion but all he had was a Steel Hellkite to attempt to block, which I promptly Dismembered. I was up a game, but if he had Emperion in his deck he'd at least have been able to tie things up.

Semifinals Versus Punishing Maverick

I've always said that Maverick is a good matchup and my opponent kept pretty loose hands. Interestingly, this was the one match on the day where Ice ending up being the difference.

In game two my opponent was on seven with a freshly cast 6/6 Knight of the Reliquary versus my thresh'd Mongoose and a 3/4 Tarmogoyf on Instant/Sorcery/Land. My hand was Fire/Ice, Force of Will, Daze and I tanked for a while on just Icing the Knight and dropping him to one, but decided that I'd see if I could maybe counter some creature on his turn and lethal him. On his turn he played a Dryad Arbor plus second Knight of the Reliquary, the latter meeting a counterspell. The Dryad Arbor meant that I had to draw another removal spell if I Iced the Knight but I just went for it at this point for fear of a third Knight and for the fact of being up a game. And obviously I got there.

Finals Versus SCG Minneapolis Legacy Open Champion Kyle Olson on Sneak and Show

I joked with Kyle the entire Top 8 that I wanted to be in his bracket. Sneak and Show is a really good matchup from all of my experience, though a good pilot can definitely make it a lot closer.

At this point we learned that first place got a Volcanic Island while second got a Taiga. The price differential being pretty substantial, we decided to play it out.

In game one Kyle was able to Show and Tell with more Force of Wills than I had. When I Brainstorm in response I found a Nimble Mongoose to Show him as well as a Dismember + Lightning Bolt to potentially wreck a Griselbrand. Griselbrand was his monster of choice and when I cast my removal "combo" his draw seven from 11 life yielded a Force of Will but no blue card in my new favorite bad beat story of all time.

We ended up going to three games but my Brainstorm in response to his Show and Tell in game three was a bit better than the one I had in game one and I took it down. When he extended his hand I took the opportunity for max rub-ins by placing the Taiga in his palm.

The State of RUG Delver

As I have felt for the last year my list is at least very close to what I firmly believe to be the best deck in Legacy. It operates on insane mana efficiency which enables it to abuse the most powerful spell in Legacy *cough*Brainstorm*cough*. I wasn't even a little bit surprised to see a RUG Delver final in the SCG Open this weekend.

What I did find surprising was the three Gitaxian Probe in the winning list. This card does not belong in RUG Delver. What RUG needs to do is understand opposing game plans and play to having the appropriate outs on every turn, not try to mise with "free" information and random cards off the top. RUG doesn't need to check your hand to see if Tarmogoyf resolves, it needs to play a game that revolves around leaving Stifle and Spell Pierce up at the right times and digging for removal spells for problem creatures. The coast isn't clear when you cast Gitaxian Probe against Combo. They can always topdeck something and embarrass you for tapping out for your Tarmogoyf.

Sure, the deck won the tournament, and that's nothing to scoff at, but your best bet is going to be to understand how your matchups play out and how to play without perfect information rather than crutching on Peek and hoping that a random card doesn't make your decision not to mulligan into a poor one.

In sum, RUG Delver is hardly a thing of the past and Gitaxian Probe is not the way of the future.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Jason’s Archives: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Posted on by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Episcopalians,

Great news in the world of MTG Finance. If enough people are all wrong about a card, they stop being wrong.

It's True! Example Time!

This first one was your fault. Not you specifically, although it's possible you contributed. I meant QS people in general.

Didgeridoo

This all started in the QS forums. Insiders can go back and laugh, non-insiders should consider becoming insiders just so they can go back and laugh.

One of like thirty people I know in the Magic Community with legal training--I say "legal training" and not "graduated law school" so I can lump myself in there. You like that?--and legitimate fun-conjurer Scott Peitzer, AKA @Boozecube, posited in the forums that since Theros is likely to incorporate some Greek and Roman mythology into the block, was it "too farfetched to speculate" that Didgeridoo could go up?

The fun factor is there, and if there is some seven-mana legendary Minotaur face-smasher in the block, being able to Aether Vial him in on turn four could get there. No one mentioned whether or not the card was playable; they all talked mostly about how hilarious it would be if Didgeridoo went up in price. Actually, that's a lie. They also brought up Merfolkgate to troll me and Corbin--Insider "craw" said they would have minotaurs in the set, but call them "bull mutants".

Craw was wrong about M14 at least--it features two minotaurs (three if you count Mutavault, which you should), one of which is a 6-drop! Ramping to him on turn four would be siiiiick.

A little while later, a confused Sigmund Ausfresser asked "So are we actually making this a legitimate speculation target?" It was a joke until they started disappearing from binders, selling out online, and people our insiders hadn't seen before were asking for Didgeridoo at events.

It was all fun and games until the price doubled from $2 to $4. People were happy to sell out at $2. They shouldn't have been.

It hit $8.

The Lesson

You people are clowns, and in talking about how funny it would be if something happened and making your own, minor contributions to it, you actually affected the price of a card. It was an accident, but now you see how easy it is to do on purpose. This was the classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy and the best part is that it started as a joke. Imagine what we could do if you guys would get on board with Master of the Pearl Trident instead of pooping on it.

"Deadbridge Chant is a sideboard card"

Actually, that isn't the most accurate first quote, but it's the one that sounded prophetic. The first quotes were things like "This card gives you a random card, therefore it's bad" and "This is a bad Staff of Nin" because someone on SCG said that and it sounded cool.

People had no trouble ignoring the fact that most of them were wrong about the card being playable and were happy shelling out $8 for the one copy that they all put in their sideboard because Owen Turtenwald did.

However, even Turtenwald himself in his write-up of the event mentioned he put this in to replace Staff of Nin and all but said "Don't try and build around this." With the only person ballsy enough to play with it calling it a sideboard card, it became generally accepted as a sideboard card. No one tried it out maindeck, even in a metagame full of the Jund mirrors and other matches where you expect a Sire of Insanity to hit the board. Despite admitting Deadbridge Chant made him a favorite in those matchups, Owen had sealed its fate.

Chant is currently back down to about $4 retail and buylists for less than half of that, but since I sold most of mine when they hit $8, I've already won. The problem is, this is not a sideboard card. At all.

Owen himself said that whenever he was at six mana and about to cast a creature he thought better of it and cast the Chant to turn off their removal, get card advantage and autowin if someone stuck a Sire. Why not build around that or at least run one or two chants main? Card advantage is good in every matchup.

Worse still, a lot of people didn't understand when to board the card in. They played it in their sideboard because the list on the intermanets said to, but didn't even board it in for the correct matchups. Since they never saw the potential of the card, it stayed in sideboards until people started cutting it for cards they understood better.

It's nearly impossible for a card to escape its relegation to a "sideboard card"--the only recent example I can think of is Blind Obedience and that has been cut from most decks altogether by now. It's such an ingrained mindset that even players who should know better can't escape it. At a PTQ one time a player called a judge to deck-check me because I played a Stifle on a trigger of his game one. Stifle is a sideboard card. Sure, sometimes. How about when you're playing Parallax Wave?

The Lesson

You can't fight city hall. I may have ended up regretting it if Deadbridge Chant actually caught on and hit $10-$15 because people built around it, but I learned from the Seance debacle that if the attitude of the community is against the card, whether you feel like you're right or wrong, you have to tailor your behavior to popular opinion.

I'm not Owen Turtenwald. If he puts a copy of a newish card in his sideboard, the price is going to quadruple. If I had won a PTQ with four copies maindeck, people would have talked about how weak PTQs are lately because even some no-name with a Deadbridge Chant deck can win. Since there is nothing I can personally do to counter popular opinion, I was correct to just sell my Chants when they hit $8 and hope they didn't go up more.

I hate it when I get to be right by being a pessimist, but I got to quadruple up on a card that is probably not going to see popular adoption in this lifetime, and isn't that the best way to speculate? Sell into the hype; that's Finance 101.

If you hate a card and everyone loves it, pay attention. Even if everyone else realizes they were wrong eventually and the card goes nowhere, you are richer than you would have been because you capitalized on the brief window of opportunity. This isn't a movie and there are no bonus points for rooting for the underdog.

I put in hours of testing with Beck // Call Elves and came to the conclusion that I could actually improve on the Intruder Alarm/Opposition/Sprout Swarm elves deck I designed for Extended that Aaron "The Godslayer" Sulla crushed a few PTQs with because now I had Elvish Archdruid to do insane things with Intruder Alarm. The Alarm is more explosive than Cloudstone Curio but I tested both and Alarm came out on top. Everyone else bet on Curio and it soared to $10, leaving me able to scoop Intruder Alarm at around $1.

Who was right--is Intruder Alarm or Curio better?

The Real Lesson

It doesn't matter.

Let's say Intruder Alarm IS better. If no one agrees and they build the deck with Curio and it doesn't do well, no one is going to build it with Intruder Alarm! They've already decided it's bad. They're going to take the losses with the Curio build and say "Elves sucks" and that will be it.

Not only did Intruder Alarm never go anywhere, neither did Beck//Call. Even if you assume I was 100% right and that Curio was bad for the deck, everyone built it with Curio. The money I invested in Intruder Alarm and the money I invested in Beck//Call is essentially wasted because I ignored public opinion. It doesn't matter if you're right if being right gets you nothing.

Naturally if you are ahead of a card you make a ton of money being able to buy in cheap. I still haven't written Deadbridge Chant off entirely, and people like Chris Lansdell are brewing with it and liking it. The sheer absurd amount of advantage in the card made it a no-brainer and quadrupling up felt good when people made fun of me for investing hundreds of dollars. Tarmogoyf was under $5 for almost two weeks, after all, so there is real money to be made being ahead of a card before it spikes.

But there is a difference in being ahead of a card and arguing with people when they say a card is bad. If you're right about a card and another guy is wrong, you win the argument. If you're right about a card and six million people are wrong, you're actually wrong. No amount of testing results, persuasive arguments or convincing one person at a time will help.

If there is no demand for a card because you were too far ahead of the metagame and it never catches up, there's no money to be made and there's no money to be made in identifying good cards no one will ever buy.

Non-Theoretical Magic

Some actual games of Magic were played this weekend, including at the Grand Prix in Kansas City. I don't know which Kansas City.

GP Kansas City Top 16

Corbin would be upset with me if I didn't mention Oklahoman Tyler Lytle got Top 16 at this event, but ever since Corbin himself got 24th in Vegas, Top 32 at a GP means a lot less to me.

On a more serious note, Jeff Hoogland showed me the U/R deck he was working on for Modern and it looked strong to me but I had no real way of knowing. It reminded me of a U/W/R deck that did well in Modern before, and I love the idea of closing a game out by going "Helix, Snapcaster Helix" but I don't know if Lightning Helix and Path to Exile are enough of a reason to play white.

Jeff demonstrated that blue and red are enough with his Top 16 finish. Even with no one-mana cantrips to stack the deck, Delver is still strong if you have a lot of burn, and I would rather play Telling Time in a Modern Delver deck than Sleight of Hand, even though I would rather catch my grandparents making a homemade porno than play a Delver deck. I think Hoogland is on to something here, and this event probably gave him a bit more data to tighten it up and shift some numbers around. I personally love Burst Lightning and Electrolyze in a deck with Snapcaster Mage.

Six different decks in the Top 8 is not bad at all. I like how a simple deck like Greg Ogreenc's (actual name) can punish inconsistent draws from the opponent and get there. Skullcrack puts a real damper on Kitchen Finks if played properly and splashing black, green and white mana allows the deck to have a ton of flexible cards. The best part is, the "4-color" strategy being base-red makes you like 90% resilient to Blood Moon. Sure you can't activate Deathrite Shaman, but you can still Lava Spike them into Bolivian.

I like the hybrid UWR Control / Twin deck Casey Swanson played. You have enough room for both strategies in the deck since so many cards overlap. Being a decent control deck that can say "Ooops, I win" with the Kiki combo or Twin or even with Kiki and Restoration Angel seems strong. Robert Berni's UR Twin deck was a bit more straightforward.

Scott Hoppe's Scapeshift deck wasn't very surprising.

Also not surprising was Ari Lax sleeving up Kiki Pod again. The deck lost its best removal spell in the form of Phantasmal Image now killing none of the problem cards it used to, but we'll think of something.

The finals between Seth Manfield and Joe Hemmann were painful to watch on coverage. Manfield's "Oh, I forgot you had Faerie Macabre in hand after I cast Thoughtseize," was countered by Hemmann's "That's okay, I forgot I could use Macabre to stop your combo", all of which made for a very "exactly how long WAS day two?" reaction from spectators.

Hemmann didn't exactly punt since being able to stop the combo didn't change the fact that he was landscrewed and behind on board, but conceding in response to his opponent gathering the appropriate combo pieces indicates his brain fart was more fatigue than being terrible. 17 rounds is all of the rounds.

I don't think there is much financial opportunity presented by any of these stock lists, but Modern everything will creep up soon, so stockpile accordingly. Scars lands are still worth nothing and that won't stay the case. Any and all Modern cards will be hot commodities in trade binders, so stock up and get ready for the next big thing.

SCG Worcester Standard Top 16

It's too bad Dan Jessup had to spoil the perfect "Jund and Junk Top 8" we almost had. Not a lot of variety here, but who wants to build new decks when cards are so close to rotating? Jund is reliable, and Brad Nelson did us the service of brewing a new deck, Junk Aristocrats, to play with and potentially beat his other deck, Junk Rites. Honestly, Standard is incredibly stale and everyone has a kind of senioritis--almost phoning in events until we get new cards.

I like this deck a lot, though. I wish he'd done better because people don't tend to look at decks that didn't Top 8, which I think is a mistake. I don't know whether the deck will be okay losing Augur of Bolas, but Olivia could easily become Master of Cruelties, a card Marcel from the cast has been hard at work crushing people with.

Grixis could be the play going forward, and may get the nod over UWR or Esper because it can play both Far // Away and Turn // Burn which are absurd cards and do all of the things you want.

There is still a 0% spread on Aetherling. It's actually a joke at this point. Shut up about "invest in shocklands" and pay attention to what the dealers are buying. Aetherling is a buy at $3-$4 and every dealer thinks so. Why there are still copies lying around for nearly that cheap is beyond me. I guess dealers are waiting because it may be a month or two before Aetherling gets a ton of play because good creatures from Innistrad block still legal. For the love of God, buy Aetherling. The only walkers being Jace, Architect of Thought show that there is one man at this event thinking beyond next week.

I just realized this is my article and if I don't want to talk about Standard anymore, I don't have to.

SCG Worchester Legacy Top 16

I wasn't kidding, I'm moving on to Legacy.

Ever since Elves started running Natural Order to hit Craterhoof Behemoth, it's probably lost its "pet deck" status and become a real thing again. 8th and 11th places were Elves, and though Jackie Lee didn't Top 8, she helped popularize an archetype. Maybe there is hope for Beck // Call in Modern after all.

Pet deck of the week may actually be TES, and if you'd told me that a year and a half ago, I would have laughed.

I guess what I can say that matters to finance folks is buy Stoneforge Mystics. With Todd Anderson smashing all the faces two weeks out of three with Esper Deathblade and its appeal outside of strict Stoneblade decks, this card is low now because people held onto them but it's creeping up.

The RUG mirror for the finals meant there were more Wastelands in the finals than there were in the entire Top 8 a few weeks ago. Wasteland is a card people were saying was tapering off. I think it's crucial in the right decks, so don't ever think they're going away.

Two newish UWR decks popped up here, a Delver deck and an UWR Stoneforge deck. Plateau is currently the cheapest dual land, and while these decks are running fewer than three copies right now, I don't think Plateau will stay cheap forever.

I remember "conventional wisdom" saying that Badlands and Plateau will be cheap forever and when I bought in deep and cashed out on Badlands when Jund popped up, the new "conventional wisdom" became, "Well, yeah, obviously Badlands is good, but Plateau isn't played in anything."

I know I wrote the whole first half of the article about paying attention to what the general populace is saying, but, come on. This is the only dual that hasn't gone up and it's seeing play. Do the math. This may be the cheapest the Unlimited, alternate art Plateaus will ever be, as well. I would actually target those. "White border pimp" is a rare thing but it's a possibility here and the Unlimited price is way closer to the Revised price than it should be.

I see more Countertop decks than I see decks running Abrupt Decay. That's puzzling.

Maybe Maverick should be pet deck of the week, but that's probably just all the bias talking. I don't care what anyone says, Maverick is still a viable deck, although I may start playing Jeff Hoogland's Legacy monstrosity since it lets me play Knight of the Reliquary but also Chalice of the Void for one on the first turn which stymies a lot of the meta right now. It also allows me to use the verb stymy in conversations.

I'll be under 3000 words if I stop right--

Insider: The Legacy of M14

Posted on by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers! We now have the full M14 spoiler out so I guess we should delve into it.

Reprints

WoTC has made quite a few interesting decisions regarding M14. They brought back a few high-dollar Legacy cards as well as a couple of obvious casual/EDH cards that have been hard to find.

This actually mimics M13 a bit. M13 brought us Gilded Lotus, Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker and Akroma's Memorial, all cards that had a medium price tag ($10-$20) simply due to strong demand and a smaller print run. It seems Wizards kept the trend going and is giving casual players Darksteel Forge back. I expect its price to drop from a previous $12 to around $4-$6 (similar to Akroma's Memorial) as both are/will be mythic rare and were solely propped up by the casual demand.

Looking over the spoiler the only cards that I see that will affect Legacy are the reprints of Scavenging Ooze and Mutavault and their effect will simply be to drop the price of these card (as they already have.)

Despite a lot of us expecting it, WoTC did not reprint Thoughtseize in M14, instead giving us back Duress. This will most likely result in a spike on Thoughtseize as players pick them up in preparation for Modern season. The only stipulation would be if they are spoiled early enough in Theros that panic doesn't set in from those who sold out expecting to buy back (or basically sold short).

Another interesting reprint, Silence, will continue to grace combo sideboards from time to time.

New Cards

I know quite a few of my fellow QS writers would like Tidebinder Mage to be good. Honestly I don't see him as more than a sideboard card in Legacy Merfolk--which currently has been pushed to tier two status, though I think it could have a resurgence.

Now, he could play a more pivotal role in a Modern merfolk deck, especially given he's really good against Jund decks. He serves more as a tempo play to stall or slow down the opponent than as an actual removal spell. I liken him to Vapor Snag or another bounce spell as a good way to stall a threat.

This guy could be used in the Zombardment deck, though it's doubtful. It's important to note that if you have a way to reduce the cost of Tenacious Dead's ability by one colorless you could create an infinite loop with Phyrexian Altar. However, being an uncommon there's not a strong likelihood this card could break $2 even if it did permit an infinite combo.

This may very well find it's way into the Zombardment deck as a worse (but cheaper-to-cast) Goblin Bombardment--perhaps as Bombardment #5-6.

Something to watch as well. If it had haste it would definitely be Legacy material. However, first strike has proven itself a useful ability. It can also serve as an amazing kill card against decks that run a lot of cantrips (Brainstorm, Ponder, Preordain). It's sad that he had to cost double red as this severely limits his splashability.

Another of my "to-watch" cards and one that I will be actively seeking in foil. I think this card will see Legacy play, possibly in RUG decks and definitely in any mono-red aggro/burn decks.

The ability is very powerful and the fact that they don't die at end of turn means that he can fog quite a few creatures every turn, all the while swinging for 2. I can see him being excellent in the RUG vs. RUG matchup as sticking him will supply the owner with a continuous onslaught of creatures. How much dumber is Brainstorm when in addition to all the usual shenanigans it comes with a free 1/1?

Llawnowar Elf, but not exactly (it has different flavor text) and you can run four of each in your Elf deck. Given we already have Fyndhorn Elves to fill the same role, it's unlikely that this makes Elves good in Legacy again.

Modern is a different animal. Modern Elves would now have access to sixteen turn one mana ramps (counting BoP). Maybe target foils, but again I don't see this being big.

Insist 2.0, except instead of drawing a card your creature gets flash and a +1/+1 counter. I personally think this is just a worse version of Insist, but the flash part will probably cause people to experiment with it.

Unfortunately, Legacy decks that would run this don't really need the ability (Elves, Nic Fit). RUG may want it as a way to force your opponent to tap out on his turn.

I would be remiss if I failed to at least mention this card, as it offers a unique ability and is fairly costed. I could see this card creating a new archetype, but whether it will be good depends on the deck builders/tweakers.

Finally, the new Wasteland wannabe. It will most likely prove far more popular in EDH (for those who like cheap semi-replacements) and has virtually no chance in Legacy. In Modern it will compete directly with Tectonic Edge, to which it's pretty inferior. However, I can see it tag-teaming with Tectonic Edge in some sort of fringe LD deck.

Insider: A Look at GP Kansas City

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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As I'm writing this, day one of GP Kansas City is already in the books.

Even though Modern PTQ season is still a couple months away, it’s always worthwhile to stay up to speed on the metagame for finance reasons. The format is still young enough for a breakout strategy to appear at any event. Additionally, the banning of Second Sunrise and the release of new sets could impact the metagame.

This morning (Sunday) I took particular note of what decks appeared at top tables. Not surprisingly, Birthing Pod decks continue to display their strength and robustness. I fully expect this archetype to remain strong going into Modern PTQ season.

Jund also remains strong, as do an array of other consistent strategies. Tron, Splinter Twin, UWR Control, and even Scapeshift all put up consistent results. It is interesting to note how popular combo decks have become in recent months. Jund and Tron continue to thrive, but combo strategies are heavily represented towards the top and many pros are on such strategies.

What do these results imply for the upcoming Modern season? Are there still opportunities to acquire cards for profits? Let’s take a deeper look and find out!

Birthing Pod – The Elephant in the Room

Hey guys, Birthing Pod is really good! Oh, you all already knew that? Then why is this card still worth only a few bucks!?

 

Well, while this card seems like it would be a ton of fun in EDH, Modern is the only format driving demand for it. But shouldn't that the same for Chord of Calling?

I think what we’re seeing here is a difference in print run between an older set like Ravnica and a newer set like New Phyrexia. As Magic gains in popularity, more and more cards of a given set are printed. My suspicion is that many more Birthing Pods exist than Chord of Callings. The invention of the mythic rare in recent sets also magnify this difference. Back in Ravnica block, there were no mythics.

With all this in mind, I still think Birthing Pod can go higher, assuming it isn’t banned from Modern for power concerns. It may take much longer, and the price ceiling will be much lower, but the potential is certainly there. After all, with such a strong showing demand will certainly be sustainable.

Other Pod Deck Ideas

Want to invest in something with even lower risk? How about the namesake of the Melira Pod deck herself, Melira, Sylvok Outcast?

Melira hails from the same set as Birthing Pod, so again the price ceiling will be much lower. But this morning I noticed a major discrepancy–-foil Meliras are currently sold out at SCG with a price tag of $6.99. Foil Birthing Pods on the other hand sell for $24.99!

This is a major gap. Granted, all nine Pod decks obviously played Birthing Pod at the GP, but not all decks played Melira, Sylvok Outcast. Still, the Melira version of the Pod deck represented five of the nine total Pod decks at the top tables. Clearly this is a preferred variant–-I expect these foils to rise. So much so, that I’m going to buy a few right now (don’t worry, I won’t make you wait).

…

Okay I’m back.

There’s another linchpin of the Melira Pod deck worth keeping in mind. It’s a card many QS subscribers likely already own. While I’m not an advocate of going excessively deep on a given speculation target, I want to emphasize the importance of an underappreciated land.

LSV put it best in a recent tweet:

Anybody else see this Tweet? Comments like this reassure me that Scars fast lands will eventually pay out. My hope is that we finally see a price bump this Modern PTQ season. And it’s quite possible Razorverge Thicket goes from underloved and underappreciated to the most played version. Buying a few more copies for under $2 can’t be bad. But I wouldn’t pay more than that.

Other Decks

I’ll admit I’m incredibly biased–-I have been on Melira Pod ever since Modern was “founded” and I’ve enjoyed the format ever since I first gained infinite life and dealt infinite damage. But there are certainly other decks worth noting from the GP.

Jund is still a deck, and I believe the higher prices for Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf will stick as long as they aren’t printed more prior to the PTQ season. Liliana of the Veil is of particular interest to me nowadays-–as rotation out of Standard looms, her price has actually dipped a tiny bit.

Still, the curve seems more flat than downward and I don’t expect her price on mtgstocks.com to dip much below $40 if at all. Demand in eternal formats will keep this card higher regardless. She may never hit $100+ like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but her playability in both Modern and Legacy means demand on this planeswalker may one day exceed that of Jace. If you want or need copies, it may be best to just pull the trigger now rather than wait for a further dip which may never happen.

Speaking of dips that will never materialize, I’m willing to wager that Snapcaster Mage is appearing in some of the UWR control strategies. Flashing back a Path to Exile or Lightning Bolt, two of the premier removal spells in Modern, can provide so much value. Demand may fade right now, but SCG still has these stocked at $24.99 (although they have dozens of copies in stock). Price memory and Eternal demand will likely keep these above $20 as well.

By the way, both Liliana and Snapcaster keeping their elevated prices (especially in foils) makes an investment in Innistrad boxes seem pretty solid. Just saying…

More to Come

I’m writing this article Sunday morning, so I don’t even know which decks will make Top 8. I will make a rather obvious prediction-–-there will be at least one Pod deck in the Top 8. Okay I’ll go bolder. I expect two Pod decks in the Top 8, and at least one of them a Melira Pod variant.

But one Grand Prix isn’t enough to dictate an entire metagame. Much more evolution will take place in the coming months. Will Scavenging Ooze disrupt strategies that revolve around Kitchen Finks and Snapcaster Mage? Will Wizards ban or unban something? Will M14 finally bring enough Merfolk to make Corbin’s Merfolk dream come true in Modern? At least two of these three questions are uncertain–-I’ll let you decide which ones.

In the meantime, investing in the backbones of the most consistent Modern strategies will be the way to go. And while some cards have higher price ceilings than others, the general trend will continue to rise as Modern increases in popularity.

Modern Masters will likely get more people involved in the format, and this will inevitable drive prices higher. Owning cards which haven’t shot up in price yet is a safe way of making solid gains with minimal downside risk. That’s exactly why I suggest Birthing Pod over Chord of Calling and foil Melira, Sylvok Outcast over foil Dark Confidant. Buying low and selling high remains, as always, the best approach.


 

Sigbits

  • Holy Casual Batman, some cards have really risen in price substantially. It seems every day Winds of Rath shows up on the Interests page of mtgstocks.com. SCG is sold out at $2.99 and I fully expect that price to rise when they are back in stock. Finding these may be tough, but acquiring them in trades or at your LGS may be a way to make a few bucks.
  • SCG has Scavenging Ooze for $14.99, but they aren’t fooling anyone. These are officially ten dollar bills since they come with a purchase of Magic 2014 Duels of the Planeswalkers. That being said, I wouldn’t mind picking up a few when they bottom. They are still strong in eternal formats and will eventually recover in price a little bit. But nonfoil versions will likely not exceed $20 again this decade.
  • Horizon Canopy has gotten some mention on Twitter in the context of GP Kansas City. If the W/G color combination continues to thrive then this nonbasic land may be a solid pickup as well. SCG is sold out at $14.99 and they’ve been steadily increasing in price on mtgstocks.com as well. Not being in Modern Masters means this land could have further to run.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: What Went Wrong

Posted on by Matthew Lewis

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Simple Correlations

Looking back at past correlations is a useful technique that can provide insight into speculative strategies and broader market trends. For instance, Fall rotation consistently lowers the price of cards from rotating sets. But it is not the calendar which is causing the price to decrease, rather it's being caused by the drop in utility for particular cards as they leave Standard.

This is an example of a correlation that can be used to guide speculative purchases, but the correlation comes with a strong, underlying factor for its existence.

In this recent article, I suggested that some Standard staples were a good buy based off past events, i.e. a simple correlation. Prices on Standard staples usually rebound after release events. Also (while not referenced in the article, I did talk about this in the forums), Scars of Mirrodin (SOM) block cards had a price bump in the wake of the Avacyn Restored (AVR) release events. It seemed reasonable that ISD block (and M13) cards were due for a similar bump following Dragon’s Maze (DGM) release events.

However, it turned out that prices continued to slide, confounding my expectations. Relying on a simple correlation without examining the underlying factors has led to a loss of tix. The pitfall here was using a simple correlation without examining how things might be different this time around.

Why Did Prices Continue to Fall?

Scars of Mirrodin (SOM) block sets and M12 all saw a short-term bump in price in their last summer of Standard. The conclusion I drew was that Innistrad (ISD) block sets and M13 should see a similar boost at a similar time.

But cards don’t jump in price simply because the date on the calendar changes. The underlying factors must be examined. The price pattern of the past might repeat itself if conditions are similar, but if conditions are different there are no guarantees.

This time around, there were two differences. First, triple AVR draft was not the newest draft format, Dragon's Maze-Gatecrash-Return to Ravnica (DGR) was. Magic Online is still chiefly a place where people come to get their draft fix. Good draft formats encourage drafters to continue to play. Therefore, it's necessary to consider the relative popularity of draft formats.

Anecdotal evidence suggests AAA draft was not a great format to draft and players quickly tired of it. Coming off the heels of the ISD draft formats, widely regarded as being one of the best limited formats ever, a sub-par draft format like AAA would lose its appeal rather quickly. And inevitably some players would look to Standard to fill the gap. The conclusion is that AAA draft was a poor format which led players to take up Standard, driving up prices on SOM block cards.

This time around, for all intents and purposes, there were two popular draft formats taking up players' attention. The regular block format is a good and interesting one, and historically popular. On top of that, Modern Masters (MMA) draft has also been heralded as a very fun format. With both of these novel draft formats available, there's a lower chance of drafters getting bored and switching to Constructed. This is turn led to further price weakness on ISD block staples.

The Lesson

When evaluating potential speculation targets, do some digging. Question your assumptions and your motivation for buying. After re-reading my article which suggested buying cards like Thragtusk, I'm happy to note that this strategy was outlined as being riskier than other strategies. This trade turned out to be a loser overall due to bad timing and poor analysis.

Thinking about why things were different this time could have led me to wait until MMA drafts settled down and the PTQ season restarted. Right now we're seeing a price bump on many Standard staples, which will take some of the sting out of my loss, but things could have gone much better with a little patience. Short-term trading with cards due to rotate in the Fall is risky, and in this case I got burned.

Portfolio Update

This is a brief rundown of what I am buying, selling and watching in the market in the last few weeks. There was no article or portfolio update last week as I was on vacation.

Selling:

  • Thundermaw Hellkite has bounced back to a level that had previously been its price floor. Although there might be a further rise in price, I’ve taken this opportunity to start selling them.
  • GTC Boosters are now the most expensive of the RTR block boosters, and the next month should be the best near-term opportunity to sell these. I have started the process of unwinding this (fairly large) position. September should also be a good opportunity to sell any RTR block boosters that are left over as interest in drafting M14 should be on the wane at that time.

Buying:

  • Zendikar block mythic rares are interesting to me because they won’t be reprinted before the next Modern PTQ season, though there’s a possibility that we see them show up as prizes for Cube draft. Lotus Cobra and Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre are two that I’ve been targeting over the last few weeks.
  • Oblivion Stone was left out of MMA and also looks like it won’t be reprinted in M14. It’s a Modern staple that saw a price slide in the last few months. I’ve been picking up cheap copies when I find them.
  • Thundermaw Hellkite, like a lot of other Standard staples, had been sliding in price since the release of Dragon’s Maze. I bought a few at that time, but couldn’t resist buying more during the MMA release events.

Watching:

  • While Geist of Saint Traft has been quite stable in price, the long slide of Restoration Angel and Thragtusk was a nasty shock. It looks like they have finally stabilized and I will be unwinding my positions in all of these cards over the next couple of weeks. The last of the online Standard PTQs run later this month. After that, they should come under continued selling pressure as Fall rotation draws closer.
  • Lifebane Zombie is a recently spoiled card for M14 that looks very intriguing to me. It's possible that an aggressive zombie build could make a splash in Standard in August. Cards like Gravecrawler and Geralf's Messengerl are both strong candidates to be included in any Standard zombie deck. They've also been sliding in price. Put these on your watch list.

Insider: The Myth of the “Rotation Dip”

Posted on by Corbin Hosler

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You all know the routine. Cards spike during the height of Standard play and everyone wants them. You have a few good months of big price shifts on cards, and all is well.

Then that dreaded month comes. October, and the new block rotates in. The bottom falls out of prices and if you’re not careful you’re left holding the pieces of a once-valuable collection. Prices bottom out in November and December before eventually recovering.

That’s what conventional wisdom says. It even makes sense.

But it’s all a lie.

The Myth

Once upon a time, this was true. But times have changed.

I first noticed this trend a couple of years ago while doing a case study on fetchlands. Around the time Zendikar rotated out of Standard, I noticed that prices on fetches didn’t move much at all. I attributed this to their eternal playability, put a buy call on fetches and began to invest heavily into them myself.

In fact, here’s what I wrote back on September 9, 2011:

Conventional wisdom on the Zendikar fetches stated that their price would bottom out after rotation and then increase in perpetuity. However, following the trend of well, trends, occurring ahead of schedule, it looks like we’re already at that point.

Using Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest as our baseline, we see that the price bottomed out at the beginning of August and has started creeping upward since. This didn’t catch anyone’s attention until SCG raised the prices on their fetches, but even this has escaped a huge part of the Magic community. It’s possible (likely, even) that SCG used Modern to raise the prices on their fetches, but Modern isn’t going anywhere and, unlike so many speculative Modern cards, fetches aren’t going anywhere either.

Literally all the buzz in the last month has been centered around Modern (glad I covered that well in advance and advised getting out a few weeks before the bubble burst), and now it’s being dominated by Innistrad. There are very few players or authors paying attention to fetchlands, and you’re running out of time to move on these.

Pick up literally every single Zendikar fetch you can find for $12 or lower, and trade for them aggressively (ideally with overpriced Innistrad goodies), and you’ll be looking very good a few years from now. It remains to be seen if these experience a dropoff once they are actually rotated, but I’m of the opinion that they won’t. We won’t be seeing a better time to buy in, and there certainly isn’t going to be less demand for them in older formats as we move forward. I’ll be spending my Innistrad prerelease (if I’m able to attend one) trading for fetchlands.

So where are fetchlands going? We see that old ones in the best color combinations can push $25 (Flooded Strand). It will be awhile before Zendikar fetches get to that point, but they’ll likely see $15 in a year or so. There’s a few reasons I love lands so much. In addition to being awesome in game design (a resource AND a bonus? Sweet!), lands are also one of the most stable investments you can make in Magic. They aren’t going to eclipse Misty Rainforest in the “fetching a land” category anytime soon (and probably never), so there’s no downside to getting in on these now.”

Basically you can nearly replace “fetchland” with “shockland” and call it a day, though that’s not going nearly deep enough. Anyway, the fetchland move paid off quite handsomely, but it’s just another data point these days.

And here’s another.

Okay, so apparently the “rotation dip” doesn’t apply to eternal cards. That certainly makes some sense at the surface and isn’t necessarily a huge surprise.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Because the concept behind the “rotation dip” is actually pretty valid. Card prices do crash as they leave Standard and bottom out before rising later.

But unlike in many years past, the trend over the past five or so years (the advent of mass internet and phone connections as well as increased interest in MTG finance) has pushed that time up earlier and earlier. Instead of cards crashing in October, they’ve moved up more and more every year. Instead of waiting until August and September to get rid of stuff, suddenly the wary MTG financier must move the cards in July. Or, preferably, even June.

I know this flies against the conventional wisdom, but that’s what the numbers are telling us.

The Truth

So let’s add some more data points, all from Innistrad block, to see how our new understanding holds up.

First, Restoration Angel.

And Geist of Saint Traft.

Finally, Clifftop Retreat.

The data doesn’t lie. Many of the cards we would expect to see get hit by the “rotation dip” have already begun plummeting. Before June is even out. That means we have to readjust our strategies accordingly. Specifically, getting rid of these cards every year before we hit the dog days of Summer is pretty much the only way to safely whittle down your position. It also means that, outside of a few possible breakout cards, the summer Standard PTQ season won’t have as much of an impact as you might expect.

I used the three cards above because all have seen pretty constant play in the last six months, and yet none have risen as we hit Standard PTQ season as we may have expected them to. In fact, they’ve begun dropping like rocks during that same time period.

Drawing Conclusions

With all of that in mind, I think there are a few points you now must consider every year regarding rotation.

  • “Rotation dip” occurs early in the summer rather than in the fall, and the optimal time to unload rotating cards is before the summer Core Set hits the market.
  • Eternal-playable cards are resistant, but not immune, to this dip.
  • These Eternal-playable cards are likely to bottom out before rotation hits and will only climb from there.

Moving Forward

With all of this information on hand, I can say I’m certainly glad I’ve already moved a lot of Innistrad stuff, and I’ll now be moving the rest of it out in the coming weeks.

It also allows me to set a target sell date on my shocklands. As most of you know, I’m hoarding shocks like I hoarded fetches. But in reality I think this is a bit different case. With fetches, there was no Modern for them to go into, so all there was was the Legacy movement. This meant there was less immediate delay after rotation.

But the most important factor is the continuing growth of the Magic player base. That fact has caused a run on lands like clockwork over the past three years.

We saw Scars lands jump, then Innistrad lands, and most people I know expect the same out of shocklands. I think the time to sell and lock in profits is likely May-June of next year (assuming the climb we’re predicting). After that, I expect them to gradually decline and bottom out late in the summer, at which point I’ll begin hoarding them again since Modern will only increase their price over time.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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